Today’s News 22nd July 2022

• ECB Raising Rates Is Europe's Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero
  ECB Raising Rates Is Europe’s Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, n’ Guns blog,

  No matter what happens, as long as Davos feels they have control over US foreign policy they will continue to act as if everything is coming up roses for them as they trash the global economy.

  This is why I find the myriad attacks against a mostly clueless Joe Biden so interesting right now. Is there a Davos pivot in the offing or is this another signal that sovereigntist forces within the US power structure are gaining the upper hand?

  With that question in mind let’s put some context on recent European events and what they say about the global story unfolding in front of us.

  The ECB finally raised rates for the first time since 2011, bringing the deposit facility rate to 0.0%, because I guess it would be beneath ‘European values’ for banks to have to pay to borrow money stolen from savers.

  

  Some would be shocked (SHOCKED, I SAY!) that the ECB went up by 50 basis points (0.5%) today, but given the dramatic events in Italy just yesterday, how could they have really done otherwise without looking like the out of touch midwits they, in fact, are.

  They just lost their top man in Italy and it looks like the populist right is set to take power in a core EU country in a couple of months without any of the Davos poison pill legislation getting passed.

  Sound familiar? The same thing happened in the US last year and we’re now staring down the barrel of an historic wipeout of the Democrats in November’s mid-terms.

  This is a real, serious loss for Davos, as I outlined in last week’s article on Draghi’s first resignation attempt.

  But at the same time that the ECB raised interest rates, it also announced a new ‘without limit’ QE program called the Transmission Protection Instrument, because, as Zerohedge rightly points out, calling it “Italy specific QE sounds a little gauche.” I’d add it’s also against core European values like telling the truth.

  ECB President Christine Lagarde was in full control in trying to outline this new experiment in monetary policy, clearly now more “art than science,” to quote Lagarde from the Before Time, you know, last week.

  “We have everything under control,” has been the theme of all the headlines coming out of Europe this week. No matter the subject, even little things like the collapse of Mario Draghi’s Davos-backed government in Italy, can derail the European project.

  It’s all good, we just have to stay the course, be ‘data-driven,’ and not yield on Europe’s core values, which, at this point amount to, trusting the arsonists to run the fire department.

  

  To give you an idea of how deeply embedded this controlling idea is, earlier this week it was the statement from EU “Foreign Minister” Josep Borrell.  Europe, he said, must keep the pressure on Russia. It cannot “afford sanctions fatigue.”  It needs to keep pressuring Russia’s economy for the long haul. We must keep up the saturation bombing of Russia’s financial system no matter how many of those bombs land in Rome, Athens or Berlin rather than Moscow.

  The unstated goal of these sanctions is to keep advanced technology out of Russia’s hands to domestically produce the weapons it will need to fight off NATO, not next month, but next year or in 2024.

  This is a long term plan.  In an episode of RT’s Crosstalk I taped earlier in the week, host Peter Lavelle brought up the Biden Administration quotes about this being a 20-year war against Russia and/or China.

  Pompeo’s “Three Lighthouses” speech was the same conclusion; a generation of Americans are going to have to fight a holy war against the East for control over global energy. Too bad no one wants to sign up to join, Mike.

  They only have the existing plan and they were put in place to execute it, even if others counter it effectively. Biden is also on the same script, but he’ll be gone soon because he’s no longer a credible messenger. Then we’ll bring in Kamala “We Gathered here, because here is where we are gathered” Harris to be the Moron-in-Chief at the White House.

  Because, they remind us constantly, those uncouth Yanks can’t be allowed to run anything.

  With that in mind, look at what else the EU put out this week:

  

  When’s the last time you saw any set of economic indicators come in perfectly in line with expectations like this? Seriously? This would be the first forecast by a European agency that they ever got right?

  Moreover, if this is true, why did this CPI print push the ECB to raise rates by 50 bps versus 25 bps? I mean, they expected this CPI print, right? So shouldn’t they have been communicating 50 bps the entire time?

  There is logic and then there is the E.C.B.

  It’s just a desperate narrative to keep up appearances they have everything under control, that they are on top of the economic situation and there is no reason for anyone to panic.

  Because panic, or ‘unwanted and unwarranted’ (Lagarde’s words) changes in credit spreads will prompt the use of the TPI to keep the Central Bank That Davos Built from going bankrupt.

  For the EU however, the clock is ticking down fast. It’s the Fed’s turn next week and with this 50 bps raise, you almost have to expect 100 bps from Powell.

  Remember that Eurocrats like Borrell and Lagarde have no Plan B (but maybe a Plan R, sadly).  

  Reversals of Fortunes

  I invoked Dr. Strangelove here for a reason.  Watch the movie again structurally, note the myriad of ‘reversals’ in it. It’s a marvel of screenwriting.  It shows you how clever humans are when they are single-minded in overcome obstacles to completing a task, operating as if the false is true.

  

  There is no better metaphor for the current state of capital markets and political warfare than that.

  I talk about reversals all the time in technical analysis of markets, but it’s an idea that is embedded deeply in storytelling.  The first key to writing a great screenplay is knowing every scene has to have a ‘reversal of value.’   

  A reversal of value can be as simple as a cold person finding a hat, to a poor person finding a suitcase full of money.

  The scene, no matter how small, has a controlling idea.  That controlling idea has to change a value in some way or the scene has no purpose.

  Good editors leave them out. Studios put them back in to sell ‘Director’s Cuts’ on Blu-Ray.

  The EU is all about Director’s Cuts of unwatchable French ‘Cinema.’

  Reversals are important, they create and release tension.  Good writing constantly builds up small reversals to set the stage for larger ones (Scene Arcs) which impact bigger ones (Acts) and so on.  

  The Eurocrats and Davos don’t believe in reversals.  They believe in inevitability and if they can just ‘stay on script’ no matter the complication which has negated their plan, they can still get to the finish line and win.  

  This is what happened at the ECB’s pivotal meeting this week. They are staying the course. 2% inflation is the goal. Lagarde dropped all forecasts and talk of inflation being ‘transitory.’ Even though circumstances have reversed against them and they finally admitted it publicly, they won’t give up the overall narrative that everything is fine.

  Europe’s values can only be expressed through the EU and therefore anything to save the EU saves European values. Maybe Kamala can crib from that one.

  Thank the gods we uncouth Yanks left those European values behind, only to have them constantly try and impose them on us at every turn.

  To many investors the Fed had their pivotal meeting last month when they raised 75 bps, but that reversal of Fed policy was only in their minds. In fact, as I’ve been saying for more than a year now, the Fed’s pivotal meeting wasn’t this past June but the one from June 2021, when ‘stealth tightening’ through reverse repo payouts began.

  That set in motion as series of complications for the ECB and Davos which have been piling up like those thrown in front of the people trying to stop Armageddon in Dr. Strangelove. The ECB finally realizes that there is nothing to do now but to accept the smoking ruin and face reality.

  Stay on Target. Stay on TARGET

  What we are seeing in the markets this week after the euro briefly broke parity with the US dollar is the predictable bounce which comes after a major scene arc was completed. The euro hit $1.03 and no further.

  But it’s just that, a bounce, a brief comic interlude to release the tension.  

  Lagarde’s performance was her admission of a ‘credit-spread gap’ that is now unbridgeable. Italy’s debt is headed towards oblivion and the ECB just said they will spend every euro of German savings to avoid that for as long as possible.

  So, we have this idea that the ECB is on top of everything. But, what about the war in Ukraine? What about the EU’s future?

  The next headline is just as much of a stunner, in the face of a fracturing EU and Mario Draghi’s tenuous hold on power in Italy: EU Starts membership talks with Albania, North Macedonia

  Translation: Don’t worry, the EU is healthy and everyone wants to be a member.  We will only grow stronger, not weaker.  We will absorb all of Europe, claim NATO from the Americans, force them to fight China while we starve Russia. 

  This is fine. 

  This is all part of the script.  But, it’s clearly not.  

  This is what they want us in the West to see, what we’re only allowed to find in internet searches. Meanwhile, the Russians tell you what Europe is really doing, namely lifting sanctions and desperately trying to get the energy and food it needs to stay one step ahead of the hangmen outside of parliaments all across the ‘civilized world.’

  The truth is, for the first time in a very long time, Davos is not calling the shots for the entire West.   Italy’s government is gone because the populists were told they have US backing to end Draghi’s reign of terror.

  Certified Ph.D. in Geography Liz Truss has even odds of becoming the next UK Prime Minister to keep US control over City of London strong and the UK in the game.

  Canada raised rates by 1% the other day, prompting comments about it having to follow, if not one-up, the Fed.  Clearly, the Canadian banks have had enough of Justin TrueDOH! and his Ukrainian Fifth Columnist, Davos chick Chrystia Freeland.

  And next week, the Fed will raise the stakes again on Lagarde regardless of what she said today.  TPI is unusable garbage which traders will front-run her into oblivion over. If she wants to know what that feels like maybe she should talk with Kuroda over at the Bank of Japan rather than her data-driven experts in Brussels.

  My last point is the one so many people do NOT want to hear, but better consider very carefully. Anti-American commentators do not understand what is happening.  

  They cannot wrap their brains around the idea that there are forces within the US hierarchy who see the Imperial Trap for what it is and that if it continues it will be the end of the US. That the Fed is facing an existential threat to its survival and that they have far more wiggle room than they think.

  Maybe, just maybe, the giants are fighting and we ants have a hard time distinguishing between not only who’s winning but whose footsteps we should avoid.

  At some point the whole illusion will come crashing down.  Europe is the old whore who still thinks she’s a hot twentysomething.  The Fed is the guy at the bar who’d rather drink alone.

  One only has to really look at the image Lagarde and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen project to the world to see exactly what I’m talking about. Thank the gods Merkel left the scene.

  These ladies will stay on script while riding the bomb to ground zero thinking they have dance partners the entire time.

  *  *  *

  Join my Patreon if you hate bombshells

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/22/2022 – 02:00

• Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech
  Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, and other top Biden administration officials have been served with discovery requests after a federal judge ordered the administration to comply with discovery requests stemming from a lawsuit alleging government collusion with Big Tech.

  

  The lawsuit accuses government officials of working with Twitter and other major social media networks to suppress truthful information on multiple topics, including COVID-19.

  One example outlined is how Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, held a secret meeting with scientists who soon after tried to discredit the theory that the virus that causes COVID-19 came from a Chinese laboratory. At the same time, Fauci, who has repeatedly cast doubt on the so-called lab leak theory and whose agency funded research at the lab in Wuhan, was exchanging messages with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on how COVID-19 information on social media was handled.

  Fauci was told in the request to identify every worker in his agency who has or is communicating with a social media platform regarding content modulation and/or misinformation, to identify all such communications he had, and to identify all meetings he had on the matter with social media platforms.

  He was also asked to provide all communications with Zuckerberg from Jan. 1, 2020, to the present, and all communications with platforms related to the Great Barrington Declaration, the COVID-19 strategy authored by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Dr. Sunetra Gupta that Fauci and his former boss, Dr. Francis Collins, criticized publicly and in private.

  Discovery requests were also sent to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; former Disinformation Governance Board chief Nina Jankowicz; Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security.

  Subpoenas

  Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, the plaintiffs in the suit, also served subpoenas to Meta, Facebook’s parent company; YouTube; Twitter; Instagram; and LinkedIn.

  The subpoena compels the platforms to provide documents before Aug. 17, including all communications with Jankowicz and other federal officials.

  The documents reference how Jen Psaki, Jean-Pierre’s predecessor, told a briefing in July 2021 that officials are “in regular touch with these social media platforms” and that “we’re flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation.”

  “We will fight to get to the bottom of this alleged collusion and expose the suppression of freedom of speech by social media giants at the behest of top-ranking government officials,” Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:55

• "Putin Entirely Too Healthy," Says CIA Director After Rumors He Was Dying
  “Putin Entirely Too Healthy,” Says CIA Director After Rumors He Was Dying

  Breathless reports speculating on Vladimir Putin’s “poor health” seem to have become a a bi-monthly exercise since the Russian invasion of Ukraine kicked off. Among the more recent and widely reported supposed health scares was an alleged Cancer diagnosis and treatment in April, based on anonymous sources who say they are in the know, but also based in part on the Russian leader’s “dramatically changed appearance” – according to some Western reports.

  But time and again what ends up being pure sensationalized “rumor” and educated guesses or speculation at best doesn’t pan out. There’s nothing ever presented in the way of evidence, or any official confirmation from the Kremlin or anyone actually close to Putin.

  In the opening month of the war, there were even rumors that Putin was “dying” – and that this figured into his rationale of risking so much politically in ordering the Ukraine invasion. The idea was that a Putin getting close to the end was a more dangerous and unpredictable leader.

  

  But some significant level of confirmation did come this week from someone who might be in the know based on the high-level intelligence he’s privy to. CIA Director William Burns discussed the matter at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday, saying there’s as yet no intelligence indicating Putin is in bad health. 

  Burns told the audience at the annual event that it turns out the Russian president is “entirely too healthy.” Per the BBC, Burns explained, “There are lots of rumors about President Putin’s health, and as far as we can tell, he’s entirely too healthy,” Burns said.

  But the CIA director, who was previously US ambassador to Moscow, added the important caveat that his comment was “not a formal intelligence judgment.”

  And yet it’s also consistent with the official UK assessment on the matter. UK Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said at the start of this week that all the talk of Putin’s failing health remains merely “wishful thinking.” He noted too that he’s not at risk of “assassination” either.

  So rumors by UK MOD he was dying in February were lies https://t.co/2CHXioUfjd

  — Freepress (@ultimateOne) July 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Kremlin has taken the opportunity to clarify amid the Western commentary on Putin’s health, with Russian Presidency spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying in a press briefing Thursday that “In recent months, Ukrainian, American, and British so-called information ‘specialists’ have thrown around various fakes about the health of the president. But it is nothing but fakes.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:35

• The Hypocrisy Of Elites
  The Hypocrisy Of Elites

  Authored by Erik Torenberg via Ideas & Musings,

  Recently we discussed why the masses adopt redistribution/egalitarianism — because it means more status and money for them.

  This week we’re going to discuss why the elites adopt redistribution/egalitarianism, since, after all, aren’t they the ones losing something by redistributing? Why then, do they unequivocally endorse giving away money and status? What’s in it for them? 

  Well. There’s one school of thought that says it’s a cynical ploy to prevent blowback from the masses. If the elites weren’t advocating for egalitarianism, they’d be unpopular with the masses and would be at risk of rebellions. In that way, redistribution can be seen as a tax they pay to keep their power.

  An even more cynical take is that the elites’ virtue signaling allows them to be seen as morally good without having to sacrifice much in terms of business interests. Corporations embraced the social causes of the last few years, but they didn’t embrace Occupy Wall Street. It’s easy for JP Morgan to promote diversity since diversity should only make JP Morgan richer. Occupy Wall Street, though, was asking for significant taxes on JP Morgan. JP Morgan didn’t like that kind of social progress — not one bit. 

  

  There’s likely truth to the idea that promoting this certain kind of egalitarianism is a way for elites to have air cover against a populist uprising — but this doesn’t do justice to the fact that many elites are, in fact, true believers. 

  As we’ve discussed, ever since Christianity we’ve conceived moral good to be valorization of the victim. We’ve since shed the theological roots of Christianity, but kept the same superstructure that redistributes status to the less well-off. When you see ambitious philanthropic projects started and funded by our ruling class, you can’t help but think much of it has good intentions. (What’s the Road to Hell paved with again?)

  Another theory holds that promoting egalitarianism is just another way elites compete amongst each other. That it’s just another status game.

  We recently discussed Rob Henderson’s Luxury Beliefs, the idea being that if people buy expensive luxury goods to showcase how well-off they are, people also hold “expensive” beliefs for the same reason. 

  This idea is not new: Jared Diamond has suggested one reason people engage in displays such as drinking, smoking, drug use, and other costly behaviors is because they serve as fitness indicators. The message is: “I’m so healthy I can afford to poison my body and continue to function.”

  Saying, “I’m willing to redistribute my money and status” is a costly but effective way of signaling, “I’m so secure in my status and money that I can afford giving it away, seeing as I have a surplus of both.”

  Consider the phrase “Defund the police” as an example — a call back to a previous post. This phrase was popularized by highly-educated elites who will almost certainly not move to areas that suffer from high crime and a defunded police force. Regardless, the phrase has been adopted by a broader set of people — including those in high-crime areas who don’t have the means to hire security or move somewhere safer.

  Why are high status people more likely to propagate luxury beliefs? Because they can afford it. And ironically, the highest status people are the most insecure about maintaining their status.

  Another irony is that redistribution is always an aristocratic thing. Aristocrats want it even more than the peasants. People assume that conditions are economic, but nearly all social movements are led by the rich. (Fidel Castro went to college and wore two Rolexes).

  This is what being an elite is about, after all. It’s not about money, although money plays a crucial role. It’s not even about education, though education plays a large role as well. It’s more about the set of behaviors and dispositions that indicate a person to be a member of the elite — which center around wanting to change the world. Recall we discussed the leveling and importance game: Wanting to change the world hits the sweet spot because it shows how important one is (you can afford worrying about the planet and not your rent), while also highlighting one’s empathy (wanting to take care of the less fortunate).

  Which is the whole point of being an elite. It’s what separates a person from simply being a bourgeois. Aristocrats want to *matter*. Bourgeoisie just want comfort and safety. Meanwhile proletariats just want to put food on the table.

  It’s worth noting, however, that the elites have evolved in one key respect: our elites are in denial that they’re elite. 100% of our present aristocratic oligarchs think aristocracy is evil and that they personally are fighting for the little people.

  Pareto called this the aristocracy of lions vs the aristocracy of foxes. Lions are proud, forceful aristocrats who explicitly own their position as leaders. Foxes, however, are humble servants who will forever deny that they’re in charge. While lions want to run the world, foxes want to save the world. 

  Ultimately, though, the egalitarianism of the elite is hollow.

  

  People want egalitarianism when they’re being selected, but they’re elitist when they’re doing the selecting.

  When people seek a job, partner, or doctor, they do not seek the average job, partner, or doctor — they seek the best.

  This is the ultimate luxury belief: wanting average for everyone else while wanting the best for ourselves. We see this everywhere: Elites advocate for public schools that disavow gifted programs for the poor while simultaneously sending their own kids to fancy private schools with gifted programs galore. Elites advocate for defunding the police while living in gated communities with private security. Elites throw a fit about getting homeless people off the streets, while moving to neighborhoods where they will never see any homeless people. 

  Not only do they advocate for egalitarianism for others while pursuing elitism for themselves, elites also recommend practices for others that they themselves don’t follow. This isn’t just hypocrisy; it’s pulling up the ladder.

  Rob Henderson quotes a study that showed that individuals with higher income and/or social status were the most likely to say that success comes as a result of luck and connections as opposed to hard work. Meanwhile, low-income individuals were much more likely to say success comes as a result of hard work and individual effort. 

  “This is where the hypocrisy comes in: affluent people often broadcast how they owe their success to luck. But then they tell their own children about the importance of hard work and individual effort.”

  Again, we see this everywhere: elites promote body positivity — the idea that being overweight is healthy — while being most obsessed with maintaining perfect health. Elites promote sexual independence and polyamory, yet themselves are most likely to be monogamous in stable long-term relationships. Elites complain about overpopulation and carbon footprint, but they’re the ones having the most kids and inflicting the largest carbon footprint. The Last Contrarian twitter account summarizes this well.

  

  Harvard is a great example of this hypocrisy. Harvard considers itself at the forefront of promoting social progress and egalitarianism. They invented schools of thought such as Critical Race Theory.

  And yet, Harvard is the ultimate engine of inequality — by design. Harvard has the best brand in the world, with a 40 billion endowment to boot. If it wanted to, Harvard could expand its class size by several orders of magnitude in order to give a more egalitarian education for all. But Harvard doesn’t want to do that. It just wants to talk about equality. After all, the school literally advertises its low acceptance rates.

  And yet, Harvard is willing to critique an entity like Amazon, which by comparison employs millions more people (compared to Harvard’s 1,000 people), and serves billions of people. 

  So we see a pattern: elite egalitarianism doesn’t practice what it preaches. It’s also actually counter-productive, since elites are insulated from the area they’re trying to help and thus have neither knowledge of the problem nor skin in the game.

  One example of this can be seen in public housing in the 1960s in places like Chicago and New York. Public housing at the time was designed by elites who didn’t have any skin in the game — they were never going to live there. Because of this, they destroyed the natural ecologies of low income housing and replaced them with housing projects that may have caused more harm than good.

  Yet again, we see this everywhere. Elites recommend dysfunctional behaviors and counterproductive policies for poor people while being precisely the ones most insulated from any and all consequences of such behaviors and policies.

  The tragedy of luxury beliefs is that, since they’re free, and since the non-elites aspire to eliteness, the beliefs themselves trickle down to the masses who can’t “afford” them. It’d be as if the masses bought a ton of expensive luxury products they didn’t need and became saddled with credit card debt. And since being high status means avoiding what the masses are doing, as soon as the masses adopt the luxury beliefs, the elites drop them. So elites accrue the short-term status benefit while the masses get hit with the long-term debt.

  And luxury beliefs are far more costly and dangerous than credit card debt — beliefs like polyamory is better. Marriage is sexist. Family is oppressive. Religion is bad. Fitness is fascist. Having kids is bad for the planet. Hard work isn’t needed to be successful. Success itself is an illness. Rationality, punctuality, and urgency are white supremacist values.

  And yet, what do elites do? Work hard, work out, get married to one partner, have kids, and teach them the opposite of what they recommend to the masses.

  This is the hypocrisy of the elites.

  

  Subscribe here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:15

• Goldman: Some Noteworthy Clients Are Starting To Buy Throughout The Day
  Goldman: Some Noteworthy Clients Are Starting To Buy Throughout The Day

  Earlier today, we wrote that according to the Goldman flow desk, “most clients were hating this rally“, sentiment which Nomura’s Charlie McElligott picked up on later in the day when he wrote that the risk over the near term is a “further pile-on to the crowd who has expected another surge lower in stocks, instead squeezing their shorts and accelerating the enormous Systematic buying already going through as CTAs cover and flip long.”

  Well, it appears that the most steadfast bears – who are recently capitulated bulls, and who according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, are now the most pessimistic on record – are starting to capitulate yet again, this time calling a bottom to stocks, and are starting to buy. Indeed, as Goldman flow trader John Flood writes in his end of day wrap, “some noteworthy long-only clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher)” adding that “executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30.”

  Translation: it is possible that this bear market rally is about to transform into something more sustainable, and as more whales join the buying parade, the train may soon leave the station. That said, as Flood writes it will be interesting to see if this “long-only” momentum will sustain into Friday post “a slew of relatively disappointing earnings” post close, from companies such as SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX.

  We excerpt from his note below; the full pdf available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

  Our desk was a 6 on 1 – 10 scale today. 3 More intraday blocks + CCL primary raise as institutions take advantage of surprise move higher in tape this week. Client demand for these blocks remains strong on our desk. Leading thematics today were China Exposure (GSCBCHSE) +196bps, Secular Growth (GSXUSGRO) +194bps, High Retail Sentiment (GSCBHRSB) +186bps.

  Some noteworthy L/O clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher). Executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30. Demand concentrated in cons disc and materials. Will be interesting to see if this L/O demand back tomorrow post a slew of relatively disappointing earnings post close: SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX, etc.

  SNAP (first take) -20% … Guiding Q3 revenue growth “thus far” this quarter to Flat YoY (Cons for full qtr Q3 growth was +18% y/y). Not giving full Q3 financial guidance.

  Gas prices in the US have moved down to $4.44/gallon (national average), 58 cents below their all-time high in mid-June.
  SLG (NYC’s largest commercial real estate landlord): “Tenant demand is shifting as some of the big technology tenants which expanded rapidly have pulled back as they adapt to new workforce patterns.”

  The ECB went big for its first rate hike in over a decade. It defied consensus with a 50 bp increase that ended the era of negative rates to tackle inflation Christine Lagarde said will remain “undesirably high for some time.” It also unveiled a crisis tool called the Transmission Protection Instrument. All countries are eligible and the plan received unanimous backing, though Lagarde said nations need sound macro policies and to comply with EU debt rules. Traders are now betting on 60 bps of increases in September. The euro erased earlier gains as she spoke, and yields came off some earlier highs, with some traders criticizing Lagarde for a lack of details during the presser.

  Finally, some humor from the Goldman trading desk:

  Joe Biden contracted Covid-19, has mild symptoms, and will isolate in the White House while continuing to work. The 79-year-old president has a runny nose, fatigue and an occasional dry cough, and has begun taking Paxlovid to treat the disease, according to a letter from his physician. Biden’s illness comes after a five-day trip to the Middle East during which he made few efforts to avoid infection.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:55

• Putin Calls Saudi Crown Prince To Discuss Oil Market, OPEC+
  Putin Calls Saudi Crown Prince To Discuss Oil Market, OPEC+

  By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

  Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the oil market and OPEC+.

  

  The two parties also made a note of the importance of collaboration within OPEC+, adding that OPEC+ members have consistently fulfilled their obligations to maintain market balance and stability in the energy markets.

  OPEC+ has consistently failed to meet its production targets over the duration of the deal. In June, OPEC+–a group that includes both Russia and Saudi Arabia—increased its oil production by 390,000 bpd, but most members failed to meet their production targets. OPEC’s share of the increase for June was 210,000 bpd, while non-OPEC members part of the OPEC+ group increased production by 180,000 bpd, according to a recent Platts survey.

  Overall, this was still more than 2.5 million bpd under the quota for the full OPEC+ group.

  Russia and Saudi Arabia—the two largest producers within OPEC+–saw the biggest production gains in June.

  While the group has fallen short of production targets, OPEC continues to insist that the market is in balance. Saudi Arabia has long maintained that it can do nothing beyond what it is already doing to help the oil market, and that the market is far more complex than merely pumping additional barrels of oil.

  That hasn’t stopped President Joe Biden from repeatedly asking the group to increase its oil production to alleviate the high pump prices in the United States. While U.S. gasoline prices have eased over the last month to $4.44, they remain $1.278 above last year’s levels, according to AAA data.

  The phone call is just the latest in a series of calls between Saudi Arabia and Russia, even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:35

• Rep. Lee Zeldin Attacked On Stage By Knife-Wielding Assailant
  Rep. Lee Zeldin Attacked On Stage By Knife-Wielding Assailant

  Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) was attacked by a man with a blade on Thursday evening during a campaign stop in Fairport, NY, near Rochester, WROC reports.

  

  Zeldin, the NY Republican gubernatorial candidate, was giving a speech about bail reform when a man walked on stage, began yelling, “wrestled with him a bit, and pulled a blade out,” before AMVETS national Director Joe Chenelly stopped him.

  Here is video of the attack involving Rep. Zeldin from witness Cody Crippen pic.twitter.com/Ur1CfpkdsS

  — Nick Reisman (@NickReisman) July 22, 2022

  According to a statement from Zeldin’s campaign, “a man climbed on stage and attempted to stab Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-NY) … Congressman Zeldin grabbed the attacker’s wrist to stop him until several others assisted in taking the attacker down to the ground.”

  

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  Group of men immediately jumped on stage and subdued the man. @News_8 @13WHAM @nypost @news10nbc @FoxNews @cnnbrk pic.twitter.com/d1ryz4F9fU

  — Ian Bradley (@bornawinner92) July 22, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:15

• Border Crisis Contributed To Botched Response To Uvalde School Massacre: Report
  Border Crisis Contributed To Botched Response To Uvalde School Massacre: Report

  Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The school in which 19 children and two teachers were massacred on May 24, had been in lockdown four times in the month prior to the shooting, said Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin.

  

  Schools in the whole district had been in lockdown mode 47 times since February due to the border crisis spilling into the city, which is a smuggling corridor from the U.S.–Mexico border to San Antonio, a recent Texas House of Representatives report stated.

  Ninety percent of the lockdowns were due to law enforcement chases of suspected smuggling vehicles through Uvalde and subsequent bailouts—where the driver crashes or stops the vehicle and occupants jump out and scatter from law enforcement, the report said.

  The sheer increase in bailouts over the past 18 months and the subsequent lockdowns “contributed to a diminished sense of vigilance about responding to security alerts,” the Texas House report states.

  “The series of bailout-related alerts led teachers and administrators to respond to all alerts with less urgency—when they heard the sound of an alert, many assumed that it was another bailout.”

  Kenneth Mueller, director of student services for the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District (CISD) testified to the committee that parents became so concerned about the number of bailouts occurring near the elementary-school campuses that they offered to hire off-duty police to supplement the Uvalde CISD police presence.

  

  Two months after the deadly massacre at Robb Elementary School, the school district is preparing for the beginning of a new year. But the Texas House review of law enforcement’s response to the May 24 shooting revealed a series of alarming failures by first responders. As a result, parents aren’t ready to send their kids back to a district they say is unsafe and where security problems remain unremedied.

  “We’re 30 days from school starting and we’re having pursuits come through. We’re having bailouts—we had one this morning in Uvalde,” McLaughlin told The Epoch Times on July 12.

  “And what’s going to happen when we have a bailout right by school and it has to go into lockdown? How much panic is there going to be? How much trauma is that going to cause these kids? A ton.”

  Parents of children who were slain in the shooting have told the mayor they’re considering homeschooling their other children.

  “I said I understand, but I can promise you from the city’s standpoint, we will do everything that we can to make sure your kids are safe,” McLaughlin said he told concerned parents.

  The mayor has requested additional state troopers to be deployed to Uvalde for the first two weeks of the school year.

  When asked if he thought some sort of “lockdown fatigue” existed at schools prior to the massacre, McLaughlin said, “I would think there would be, but I can’t speak for the school district.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:00

• Rockaway Beach Shut Down Due To Shark Sightings Amidst Week Long Heat Wave
  Rockaway Beach Shut Down Due To Shark Sightings Amidst Week Long Heat Wave

  Sharks were spotted at Rockaway Beach this week, causing the New York Police Department to shut down all of the beaches.

  “ALL of the Rockaway beaches are currently closed for swimming due to shark sitings [sic] until further notice. The boardwalk is still OPEN!,” the New York Police Department’s 100th Precinct tweeted mid-week. 

  The New York City Department of Parks and Recreation confirmed the shutdown to Bloomberg, who reported that the New York Police Department was doing flyovers during the week looking for shark threats.

  The NYPD said beaches will reopen when it is “safe to do so”. 

  ***BREAKING***: ALL of the Rockaway beaches are currently closed for swimming 🏊‍♀️ due to shark sitings until further notice. The boardwalk is still OPEN!!!Thank you 😊 pic.twitter.com/Im33hy63tg

  — NYPD 100th Precinct (@NYPD100Pct) July 19, 2022

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  The beaches have been on edge since a number of shark attacks, including ones against “a tourist, a surfer and a lifeguard,” according to the report. 

  New York Governor Kathy Hochul has ordered an increased lifeguard presence, patrols and aerial surveillance, and the state also plans on increasing drone capacity and deploying patrol boats to search the water. 

  Hocul said: “As New Yorkers and visitors alike head to our beautiful Long Island beaches to enjoy the summer, our top priority is their safety. We are taking action to expand patrols for sharks and protect beachgoers from potentially dangerous situations.”

  Meanwhile, like with every other profession, there has been a shortage of lifeguards in New York City. The lifeguard union struck a new deal with the city to raise starting wages to $19.46 an hour.

  Meanwhile, the week long heat wave on the east coast continues…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:40

• Antifa Summer Camp In Portland Teaches Anarchy To Children
  Antifa Summer Camp In Portland Teaches Anarchy To Children

  Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A summer camp in Portland, Oregon, is offering children the opportunity to become budding social justice warriors (SJW) while “reflecting on white supremacy” and learning Black Lives Matter (BLM) chants about putting “killer cops in jail.”

  

  The Budding Roses camp in August for fourth through eighth graders is a project of the Black Rose Anarchist Federation, a political organization promoting the tenets of anarchy that some would argue led to the Portland riots of 2020.

  In June 2021, the Portland Police Association issued a press release announcing that the Portland Police Bureau Rapid Response Team resigned from their voluntary positions due to the “political venom” of local politicians who not only failed to support but demonized the team during the Portland riots that began in 2020 and continued through 2021.

  The resignation is a step toward what Budding Roses teaches children in the chant, “Cops and borders, We don’t need them.”

  As with many SJW goals, the camp’s curriculum appears to be inflicting children with race obsession and graphic sexual concepts, as can be seen in a BLM coloring book espousing transgender affirmation and in a chant that compares the government to a rapist.

  “It’s the state that’s our oppressor, It’s the rapist government,” the chant reads.

  The camp also has a class on “Why Writing People in Prisons and Jails Matters” to instruct children on writing to incarcerated felons.

  “Letter writing with incarcerated people encompasses our commitment to change, and the intersection of our priorities,” it says. “In order to fight for prison abolition, we must connect with and advocate for those most impacted by the prison industrial complex.”

  In its “Tear Gas for Portlanders” class, a drawing of a person in Antifa garb who introduces himself as “your friendly neighborhood anti-fascist” gives a lecture on tear gas, how it’s made, where it has been used, how much the city of Portland has spent on it, and why it shouldn’t be used.

  According to the class, tear gas is another tool in the box of what it describes as a racist police force.

  As first reported in PJ Media, in 2018, the city of Portland awarded Budding Roses the Spirit of Portland Award for nonprofit initiative of the year; however, the recipients of the award who were there to accept it expressed ingratitude.

  “As Budding Roses, our goal is to empower the voices of youth, especially those most affected by white supremacy and patriarchy, and we strive to embody in all our work that power comes not from authority, but from below,” the recipient said. “Unfortunately, we find it ironic to be presented this award from a city that doesn’t seem to share these values, given its history of using police violence against anti-racist activists while shielding racist demonstrators, and most recently a proposal by Mayor Ted Wheeler to enforce a restrictive protest policy.”

  The city of Portland, Budding Roses, and the Black Rose Anarchist Federation didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:20

• Polio Detected In New York, First US Case Since 2013
  Polio Detected In New York, First US Case Since 2013

  New York state health officials alerted Rockland County residents about a confirmed polio case on Thursday. The last naturally occurring case of polio in the U.S. was in 1979. Health officials believe this case might have originated from outside the U.S., which would be the first since 2013. 

  The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) and the Rockland County Department of Health advised hospitals in the state to be extra vigilant for additional cases. Polio is a viral disease and once the nation’s most feared sickness in the 1950s, which caused neurological symptoms, paralysis, or death and has been eradicated since 1979. 

  

  The iconic photo of an infected child with polio in an iron lung mechanical respirator. 

  

  NYSDOH believes the infected person (still no details about the individual’s age or if they traveled outside of the country) has a vaccine-derived strain of the virus and got it from someone outside the country. The person is also unvaccinated against polio, NYTimes confirmed. 

  In this case, sequencing performed by the Wadsworth Center – NYSDOH’s public health laboratory – and confirmed by CDC showed revertant polio Sabin type 2 virus. This is indicative of a transmission chain from an individual who received the oral polio vaccine (OPV), which is no longer authorized or administered in the U.S., where only the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been given since 2000. This suggests that the virus may have originated in a location outside of the U.S. where OPV is administered, since revertant strains cannot emerge from inactivated vaccines. – NYSDOH

  Transmission of the virus appears to be through vaccine shedding. The vaccine in question is the oral polio vaccine (OPV), an attenuated (or “live virus”) vaccine given to people outside of the US. People who are given active vaccines have the tendency to shed the virus and infect others.  

  Parts of the world where OPV is administered are mainly developing countries, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and ones in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. 

  Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been a big driver of polio vaccine funding. But a 2019 article from Science indicates the decades-long eradication campaign “suffered major setbacks.”

  Since 2000, only inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been given to U.S. children, and since it’s inactive or dead, there’s no risk of shedding. 

  NYSDOH is now requesting those who are “vaccinated but at risk of exposure” to get a “booster.” 

  Add polio boosters to the expanding listing of vaccines the government is trying to force into the bodies of Americans, including COVID boosters and ones for Monkeypox. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:00

• Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis
  Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  At least 181 K-12 teachers, principals, and staff have been arrested for child sex crimes in the United States so far this year, according to an analysis of reports.

  

  At least 181 educators been arrested between Jan. 1 and June 30, according to a Fox News analysis. Arrests that did not make it in media reports were not counted.

  Four principals, 153 teachers, 12 substitute teachers, and 12 teachers were arrested on a litany of charges, including sexually assaulting students and possessing child pornography. About 140 of those who were arrested carried out alleged crimes against students.

  For example, an educator in Delaware, identified as High Road School teacher James Garfield, was arrested last week for allegedly assaulting a 15-year-old student. He was charged with two counts of felony rape and related charges, according to local media.

  Days before that, a teacher in Warren, Pennsylvania, was arrested and charged after he allegedly sexually assaulted a 15-year-old student. He was charged with aggravated indecent assault, institutional sexual assault, and other charges, it was reported.

  Weeks before that, a Hoboken, New Jersey man admitted to raping two 17-year-old girls while he worked as a gym teacher in two different public school districts in Hudson County, New Jersey. In late June, 45-year-old Francisco Realpe pleaded guilty to two counts of sexual assault, prosecutors said.

  Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute an activist who has battled the spread of critical race theory in classrooms, called for a new study on child sex abuse in schools.

  “This is a scandal that the political Left is doing everything in its power to suppress,” he said in a statement to Fox News. “The basic fact is incontrovertible: every day, a public school teacher is arrested, indicted, or convicted for child sex abuse. And yet, the teachers unions, the public school bureaucracies, and the left-wing media pretend that the abuse isn’t happening and viciously attack families who raise concerns.”

  In an article published in April, Rufo noted that the Department of Education last released a report in 2004 (pdf), which said nearly 9.6 percent of students have been targeted by teachers for sexual misconduct in K-12 classrooms.

  “The most comprehensive report about sexual abuse in public schools, published by the Department of Education in 2004, estimates—on the basis of a 2000 survey, conducted by the American Association of University Women, of 2,065 students in grades eight through 11—that nearly 10 percent of K-12 students have been victims of sexual misconduct by a public school employee,” he wrote.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:40

• "Let's Tap The Brakes" – America's Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree
  “Let’s Tap The Brakes” – America’s Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree

  America’s largest landlords have changed course as the highest interest rate increases in decades to squash rising inflation has slowed down acquisitions of single-family homes. 

  KKR & Co.’s My Community Homes, American Homes 4 Rent, and Amherst Holdings have reduced home buying in recent weeks, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the efforts.

  The people, who asked not to be named, said some institutional buyers slashed buying activity by more than 50%. 

  

  Mynd Management, a real estate platform that helps investors find, buy, lease, manage, and sell residential investment properties, has advised institutional clients to dial back acquisitions and wait for housing prices to readjust to the interest rate shock. 

  In an interview, Mynd’s CEO Doug Brien told Bloomberg that market conditions could improve in the fall as “buying opportunities” emerge. He said, for the time being, “let’s tap the brakes and watch the markets.” 

  Brien’s ‘wait and see approach’ comes as the Biden admin’s intention to crush the housing market (with the help of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes) and spark a powerful recession to combat the highest inflation in forty years. 

  Home sales have been rapidly slowing as 30Y mortgage rates jumped in the year’s first half, spiking at the fastest pace on record and unleashing a housing affordability crisis, curbing demand. 

  … setting the stage for a sharp repricing lower in home prices, hence why Brien has told institutional clients to pause buying due to the risk of overpaying. 

  Industry executives say the recent slowdown has not dampened their enthusiasm for single-family rentals, and many expect the housing market to offer better opportunities in the months ahead. Those could come in the form of lower home prices, rising rents, or an increased willingness by homebuilders to sell properties in bulk. -Bloomberg

  Institutional homebuyers are already preparing for the price slide (we point out this slide already started). NexPoint Advisors raised $2.5 billion for a new single-family rental fund in June. 

  “When there’s no certainty in the market, everybody pauses,” said Mike McMullen. He runs Prominence Homes, a Birmingham, Alabama, home builder specializing in rental houses and a real estate brokerage that helps investors acquire properties.

  So if institutional buyers have paused buying and millions of Americans can no longer afford homes, how far do prices fall until a buyer remerges? 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:20

• Democrat House Majority Leader Refuses To Commit To Supporting Biden 2024
  Democrat House Majority Leader Refuses To Commit To Supporting Biden 2024

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  Democrat House majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-NY) refused to commit to supporting Biden 2024 in another sign that the president is being jettisoned as his cognitive abilities decline.

  

  Hoyer made the comments during an appearance on Neil Cavuto’s Fox News show.

  “Let me ask you this, do you think, as some in your party are saying, [Biden] should run again, he’s open to running again, he’s not too old to run again?” Cavuto asked Hoyer.

  “Neil, I-I-I’m not gonna go there,” Hoyer replied. “You’re asking about problems today, this is about today. There’s an inflation problem.”

  WATCH: Democrat House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer REFUSES to say if Biden should run in 2024.

  “I’m not going to go there” pic.twitter.com/XdvRDFT6ge

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 20, 2022

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  “Well, six out of 10 Democrats don’t think the President’s up to dealing with this today,” Cavuto interjected, but Hoyer refused to be drawn on the matter.

  With the New York Times having published six hit pieces against Biden’s candidacy in the last two months, the rats appear to be fleeing the sinking ship.

  Front and center as the reason is Biden’s declining cognitive abilities, with him stumbling into yet another verbal gaffe yesterday by saying he had cancer.

  Biden: “I and so many other people I grew up with have cancer.” pic.twitter.com/TUiBZJqbBR

  — Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 20, 2022

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  Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) also refused to say she’d support Biden running again during an appearance on CNN last month.

  Yesterday, we highlighted the comments of Dick Morris, former top advisor to Bill Clinton, who sensationally claimed that Hillary is being lined up to replace Biden.

  According to Morris, the Democratic establishment knows “that Biden can’t run again in 2024” due to his “quickly declining mental abilities” and the economic disaster he had presided over.

  As we document in the video below, given how he has behaved over the last two years, the notion that Biden would come out on top of debates with Trump two years from now is absurd.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:00

• Amazon To Deploy Rivian Electric Vans For Prime Deliveries In These Cities
  Amazon To Deploy Rivian Electric Vans For Prime Deliveries In These Cities

  Amazon is the world’s largest online retailer and has a large carbon footprint regarding its nationwide network of fulfillment centers and delivery vehicles that transport packages from warehouse to warehouse and the last mile: to the customer’s doorstep.

  By 2030, the company has promised to have at least half of its shipments considered carbon-neutral and increase the use of renewable energy.

  When examining the environmental impact of Amazon, the company is a massive emitter of carbon emissions. Its transportation network involves vans, trucks, and airplanes to transport packages. 

  In September 2019, Amazon founder and then-CEO Jeff Bezos declared war on climate change by announcing his company “just placed an order for 100,000 electric delivery vans” produced by Rivian. He said Amazon has ambitions to be entirely carbon neutral by 2040. 

  The first Rivian vans are “hitting the road in Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Nashville, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, and St. Louis, among other cities,” according to Amazon on Thursday. 

  

  Amazon said customers across the US would begin to see “thousands” of Rivian vans by the year’s end and expect 100,000 in metro areas by 2030. 

  

  “Fighting the effects of climate change requires constant innovation and action, and Amazon is partnering with companies who share our passion for inventing new ways to minimize our impact on the environment. Rivian has been an excellent partner in that mission, and we’re excited to see our first custom electric delivery vehicles on the road,” said Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon.

  Amazon has been testing Rivian preproduction vans since 2021 and has delivered over 430,000 packages. “This significant testing has allowed Rivian to continuously improve the vehicle’s performance, safety, and durability in various climates and geographies as well as its state-of-the-art features to ensure driver satisfaction and overall functionality,” Amazon said in a press release. 

  During the testing, we noted Amazon raised questions about the EV vans: Rivian Shares Plunge After Amazon Agrees To “Significant” EV Van Deal With Stellantis and Rivian Tumbles After Report Amazon Testing “Reveals Questions About Battery Power, Cameras.”

  

  However, there’s a significant problem we’ve spotted. The massive EV rollout over the coming years will require considerable investments in the power grid to boost spare power capacity through new generation sources (such as solar and wind nuclear) to meet soaring power demand. 

  For instance, last week, power demand in Texas hit a record, and spare grid capacity was limited, forcing state grid operator ERCOT to call for conservation to prevent blackouts. Meanwhile, Tesla asked customers in the state not to charge EVs during peak demand times. 

  If power grids aren’t modernized during corporate fleets transitioning from fossil fuels to EVs — then power grids across the country could become unstable, just like in Texas. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:40

• "Republicans Are Just Going After Him": Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges
  “Republicans Are Just Going After Him”: Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  The media is reporting that the criminal investigation of Hunter Biden is at a “critical stage” with the grand jury considering an array of charges including various tax violations and possible foreign lobbying violations. I previously testified in Congress on possible criminal exposure for Hunter under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). There seems ample evidence for such charges but there remain some glaring questions in how the Biden Administration has handled the investigation of the Biden family.

  What is also striking is the initial response of pundits on cable channels like MSNBC that has long ignored or downplayed the allegations.

  

  The most glaring question raised the report is, again, the refusal of Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a Special Counsel despite overwhelming justification for such an appointment. For over a year, I have been writing on the obvious need for a special counsel in an investigation that not only is embarrassing for the Biden family but implicates not just Hunter but his uncle and his father.

  Given this mounting evidence, the position of Attorney General Garland has gone from dubious to ridiculous in evading the issue of a special counsel appointment.  He continues to refuse to acknowledge these conflicts with the President.

  Federal regulations allow the appointment of a special counsel when it is in the public interest and an “investigation or prosecution of that person or matter by a United States Attorney’s Office or litigating Division of the Department of Justice would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances.”

  It is hard to imagine a stronger case for the appointment of a special counsel. Attorney General Garland has failed in his duty to protect the Justice Department from such conflicts or the appearance of such conflicts.

  There will be lingering questions over the independence of the investigation. For example, if you are investigating lobbying violations tied to Hunter’s open influence peddling, why would you not ask to question the man referred to as the “big guy” who was purportedly cut in for a ten percent share of one of the most dubious deals? He is also the same man who reportedly received money from shared accounts and was referenced by Hunter to foreign clients as part of the inducement for giving him money. He is the object of the influence peddling. He is also now the President of the United States.

  Without speaking with such figures, the Justice Department could be accused of engaging in willful blindness to possible conspiracy violations involving not just Hunter but his family. If Hunter is then given a plea deal on limited charges, it will magnify those questions. That would particularly be the case if the case is closed before Republicans take the House and start their own investigation into the matter. That danger of an appearance of a conflict could have been avoided with simply appointing a special counsel over a year ago.

  What is also striking is the response in the media, which long called the Hunter Biden laptop “Russian disinformation” or fake news.  On MSNBC, Paul Begala dismissed the importance of any criminal charges of the President’s son in a multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme:

  “No. No. I wish the guy well. He struggled with addiction, and, you know, nobody has charged him with anything. But this has been a Republican fixation to no avail. They have got no political gain out of this. I looked up Ron Johnson, the senator from Wisconsin, a couple of months ago, was asked about mass shootings … He said, ‘Before we pass anything new on guns, let’s enforce the law we already have. Let’s start with Hunter Biden.’ What the heck? So it’s a challenge for Hunter Biden. I wish him well, but it’s not going to be a political issue.”

  The response of Kasie Hunt was even more interesting:

  “It seems like, if anything, it probably energizes Democrats because it makes them think it’s political and that Republicans are just going after him for that reason.”

  This would be an indictment under the Biden Administration but Hunt is already portraying the expected criticism as “Republicans are just going after him.” There remains no expression of concern over emails detailing millions of dollars going to Hunter as he raises access and meetings with his father. The same pundits who dismissed or downplayed the basis for the investigation are now dismissing the possible finding of probable cause of federal crimes.

  As discussed earlier, it remains astonishing how successful the Biden family was making the scandal vanish before that 2020 election with the help of most of the media. It was analogized to Houdini making his 10,000-pound elephant Jennie disappear in his act. The Biden trick however occurred live before an audience of millions. The media has made the story disappear except for a couple of the usual outlets.

  The start of the spin shows that even criminal charges might not force the media to see the whole elephant. The key to the trick was involving the media in the original trick is that it invests reporters in the illusion. It is like calling audience members to the stage to assist in the performance. Reporters have to insist that there was nothing to see or they have to admit to being part of the original deception. The media cannot see the elephant without the public seeing something about the media in its past efforts to conceal it.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:20

• Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash
  Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash

  The past two months have seen a barrage of negative news coverage focusing on the US housing market…

  • Is The Housing Crash Starting?

  • Why The Housing Bubble Bust Is Baked-In

  • The One Housing Chart That Shows A ‘Buyer’s Market’ Has Returned

  • As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses

  • Housing Market Peaks: Home Prices Finally Drop From All-Time Highs

  … which is predictable: after all, with mortgage rates soaring at the fastest pace on record to decade highs, and sending US housing affordability to the lowest in history…

  

  … only a handful of the “1%” can afford the American Dream.

  Alas, it also means that just like in 2007, a housing crash is now just a matter of time.

  That much is known. What is also know, is that once housing craters, the largest US residential and commercial landlord – private equity giant Blackstone – is about to get even bigger. That’s when it will deploy some (or all) of the record $50 billion in dry powder it has raised to prepare for just the coming housing crash.

  According to the WSJ, Blackstone is the final stages of raising a new real-estate fund that would set a record as the biggest vehicle of its kind, defying market volatility and a crowded landscape for fundraising.

  The private-equity giant said in a regulatory filing Wednesday it has closed on commitments totaling $24.1 billion for Blackstone Real Estate Partners X, the latest iteration of its main real-estate fund.

  According to the WSJ, Blackstone is committing about $300 million of its own capital and has allocated an additional $5.9 billion to investors, which will bring the fund to $30.3 billion when it is finalized. The firm raised the fund, expected to be the largest traditional private-equity vehicle in history, in just three month. It was also Blackstone that set the prior record, with the $26 billion buyout fund it raised in 2019. The new real-estate fund will be 50% larger than its predecessor, a $20.5 billion pool raised in 2019.

  Together with funds dedicated to real estate in Asia and Europe, Blackstone will have a war chest of more than $50 billion to do so-called opportunistic investments, which tend to be higher-risk deals with the potential for higher returns.

  That, according to the WSJ, “could allow the firm to take advantage of a downturn in the public markets.” Translation: at a time when Americans are liquidating their housing en masse to shore up liquidity when the bottom falls out from the economy, Blackstone will step in and buy all the distressed properties at pennies on the dollar, becoming an even bigger presence in US, and global, real estate.

  Not surprisingly, many of Blackstone’s best-performing deals—like its 2014 purchase of the Cosmopolitan casino and hotel in Las Vegas and its 2016 deal for life-sciences buildings owner BioMed Realty Trust —were struck during periods of market turmoil.

  It won’t be just Blackstone that goes bottom fishing in a few months: a slew of private-equity funds are in the market this year, with many trying to raise huge sums even after stocks fell and deal-making dried up. The surge in requests for new cash has overwhelmed investment teams at institutions such as pension funds and endowments and has meant many have delayed making commitments to all but the top managers.

  The size of Blackstone’s new fund and the speed at which it was able to raise the money demonstrate that institutional investors are still eager to participate in vehicles being offered by established managers with good records. And while the ranks of $20 billion-plus buyout funds have been growing, there are still relatively few real-estate megafunds comparable with Blackstone’s.

  As the WSJ adds, just like the firm as a whole, Blackstone’s $298 billion real-estate business has embraced a thematic investment strategy with the goal of targeting areas of the economy where growth is outpacing inflation. That has led it to focus on four key areas: warehouses used for e-commerce; life-sciences office buildings; rental housing; and hospitality tied to travel and leisure. It has also excelled in all four areas, long ago becoming the largest US residential landlord much to the chagrin of tens of millions of Americans who dutifully pay Steve Schwarzman for the privilege of having a roof over their head.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:00

• Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing 'Myriad Of Election Issues'
  Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing ‘Myriad Of Election Issues’

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  More than two months after Pennsylvania’s May 17 primary election, the Department of State still has not certified the election results. It’s an administrative failure that undermines confidence in the state’s election system, according to Republican state Rep. Seth Grove, chairman of the State Government Committee.

  

  That is one of numerous examples Grove described at the state capital building in Harrisburg during a July 19 press conference in which he released a 186-page report (pdf) with the long title, “Election Reform in Pennsylvania: Missed Opportunities and Continued Chaos-an Interim Report on The Status of Elections in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania After the Veto of House Bill 1300.”

  Grove is still advocating for something like HB 1300, which Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed in June 2021. It was a package of election reforms that called for voter identification and provided for early in-person voting; moved the voter registration deadline back from 15 days to 30 days before the election; established a state bureau of election audits; allowed for pre-canvassing of mailed ballots; and would have made it easier for older and disabled voters by moving them to the front of the line or providing curbside voting so they could remain in their car.

  The bill also introduced stiffer fines and longer possible prison terms for election tampering.

  But Wolf didn’t go for it.

  “This bill is ultimately not about improving access to voting or election security, but about restricting the freedom to vote,” Wolf said in a statement about the veto. “If adopted it would threaten to disrupt election administration, undermine faith in government, and invite costly, time-consuming, and destabilizing litigation.”

  It didn’t seem like Wolf read the bill, Grove said in his report.

  “Unfortunately, Gov. Wolf vetoed the bill despite seeming largely unfamiliar with the contents. By vetoing the legislation, he made himself the sole obstacle to historic reform that would have improved nearly every aspect of election administration in Pennsylvania. Most importantly, it would have allowed the General Assembly to live up to our constitutional requirement for uniformity and fairness in elections and prevent any reoccurrence of the national attention our current, broken process received during and after the November 2020 Election.”

  Incidents from the Report

  The report details troubles in the state’s elections that have happened since 2020. The following incidents are a sampling of those described in more detail in the report:

  In 2021, a Luzerne County man admitted to using his deceased mother’s information to apply for an absentee ballot.

  During the May 2021 primary, some counties faced a shortage of paper ballots at polling places on election day, in part due to higher than expected in-person voting. Shortages happened in Clearfield, Delaware, Lebanon, and York counties, and possibly others.

  In Fayette County during the same election, an issue with barcodes meant ballots were not scanning or being recorded. Affected ballots were set aside and counted by hand when polls closed.

  Also in the May 2021 primary, nine Snyder County voters received the wrong ballots, and Erie County voters left two polling sites with their marked ballots.

  During the November 2021 general election, during the preelection process, Berks County’s Spanish-language ballot instructions included the incorrect date for the election, affecting 17,000 mail-in ballots.

  In the same election, the Lehigh County Board of Elections decided to count undated ballots. In response, members of the House Republican Caucus issued a letter threatening impeachment unless the law was followed. The matter resulted in litigation in federal courts, with the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals ordering the undated ballots be counted.

  That was not the last of ballot issues.

  Another case in federal district court challenged the practice of disqualifying ballots lacking a secrecy envelope. The case is not yet resolved.

  And recently, the Department of State filed suit against the Berks, Lancaster, and Fayette county boards of elections over certification disputes arising from the 2022 primary election. At issue is the treatment of ballots lacking a date. These counties certified results excluding such ballots, as required by Pennsylvania law.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 18:40

• Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?
  Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?

  Update (1400ET): President Biden has tweeted a short clip to remind everyone he is “double vaccinated and double boosted” and to tell Americans to “keep the faith”?

  An update from me: pic.twitter.com/L2oCR0uUTu

  — President Biden (@POTUS) July 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As Techno Fog notes via The Reactionary, the whole thing has reached the point of absurdity. As we noted below, Biden said in July 2021 that if you’re vaccinated, “You’re not going to get Covid.”

  July 2021: Joe Biden: “You’re not going to get Covid if you have these vaccinations.”

  July 2022: Joe Biden tests positive for Covid.pic.twitter.com/y4UjRcyGd0

  — James Melville (@JamesMelville) July 21, 2022

  That guarantee from Biden was significant. After that statement, there was a multi-pronged effort to scapegoat the continuation of the “pandemic” on the unvaccinated. Dr. Fauci blamed the unvaccinated for “propagating” the latest outbreak, saying we need to “do something to get them to be vaccinated.”

  That term do something suggested action. State governments and cities began issuing their own vaccination requirements. New York City led the way, requiring “proof of at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine for a variety of activities for workers and customers — indoor dining, gyms and performances — to put pressure on people to get vaccinated.”

  The media called for more extreme measures, demanding Biden institute a “no-fly list for unvaccinated adults.” They called for mandates. They begged for the federal government to raise “the costs of remaining unvaccinated.” Thankfully, they didn’t get much of what they asked for. COVID-19 cases are rising in many of the most vaccinated states, including California. The mandates and the vaccines haven’t stopped the spread.

  As to Biden’s current COVID-19 diagnosis?

  At least it isn’t cancer. The remarkable thing about Biden’s purported cancer “gaffe” – apart from (incorrectly?) saying he has cancer – is that he didn’t notice he said he has cancer. A normal mind might correct itself after making such a seismic error. Biden didn’t comprehend the significance of his statement. He just continued mumbling along, reading words off a screen as fast as he could before getting out of that riverfront hellscape.

  President Biden just said he has cancer.

  Is it true?

  Or is the Commander in Chief confused?

  Who knows!! pic.twitter.com/OyrPXCYrd2

  — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) July 20, 2022

  *  *  *

  Despite being double-vaccinated and double-boosted (and despite having promised Americans exactly a year ago that if you take the vaccines you won’t get COVID), The White House is reporting that 79-year-old President Biden has tested positive for COVID-19 this morning.

  

  Statement from Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre (emphasis and images ours)

  This morning, President Biden tested positive for COVID-19. He is fully vaccinated and twice boosted and experiencing very mild symptoms.

  He has begun taking Paxlovid.

  Consistent with CDC guidelines, he will isolate at the White House and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time. He has been in contact with members of the White House staff by phone this morning, and will participate in his planned meetings at the White House this morning via phone and Zoom from the residence.

  Consistent with White House protocol for positive COVID cases, which goes above and beyond CDC guidance, he will continue to work in isolation until he tests negative. Once he tests negative, he will return to in-person work.

  Out of an abundance of transparency, the White House will provide a daily update on the Presidents status as he continues to carry out the full duties of the office while in isolation.

  Per standard protocol for any positive case at the White House, the White House Medical Unit will inform all close contacts of the President during the day today, including any Members of Congress and any members of the press who interacted with the President during yesterday’s travel.

  The President’s last previous test for COVID was Tuesday, when he had a negative test result.

  The President’s Doctor sent a clarifying note to The White House Press Secretary.

  

  We are sure he will ‘say the line’…

  

  We wonder what she’s thinking…

  

  It’s been quite a month for the president: falls off bike, fist-bumps MbS, lies about cancer, gets COVID, and hits new record low approval rating.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/21/2022 – 18:33

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