Jun 22

Today’s News 22nd June 2022

  • European Power Prices Spike As Heat Dome Strains Grid 
    European Power Prices Spike As Heat Dome Strains Grid 

    European day-ahead power prices continue to soar for the third day due to an early-season heat wave driving up cooling demand, lack of renewable energy generation, declining nuclear power, and soaring natural gas costs. 

    Large swaths of Europe over the weekend experienced temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius). The hottest temperatures were from Spain to Germany to France. 

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    Bloomberg notes power grids were under stress as wind generation in Germany and Italy plunged, forcing the need to increase the capacity of fossil fuel power generators to make up for the lost power. This placed a bid under electricity prices as the cost to generate power soars because of tightening supplies due to declining Russian flows. 

    “Already high gas prices, combined with low wind output will require less efficient, higher cost gas plants to fire up, pushing up prices,” BloombergNEF’s Andreas Gandolfo said. 

    Day-ahead power prices in France traded at 383.14 euros ($404.08) a megawatt-hour, up more than 64% from last week. 

    Besides tight fossil fuel supplies and a lack of renewable power from Germany and Italy, half of France’s 56 nuclear reactors are offline. France was the biggest net exporter of power last year, supplying many European countries. 

    French nuclear power is needed when renewable energy is lacking. Also, Brussels’ drive for net-zero carbon emissions and weening off Russian fossil fuels has made the energy crisis on the continent worse. 

    To avert a more profound crisis, German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Sunday that the country is increasing coal generation to increase power output. 

    The decision comes just days after Russian gas company Gazprom announced that it was reducing supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for “technical reasons.”

    Meanwhile, the Netherlands is following Germany to increase coal-fired power station output to prevent an energy crisis (Greta Thunberg isn’t going to be happy about this). 

    A perfect storm of factors shows Europe’s power grid is vulnerable to blackouts this summer unless more energy generating capacity can be restored. So far, the continent is desperately trying to restart fossil fuel power units after retiring them for the failed green transition. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 06/22/2022 – 02:45

  • Zuesse: How Did America Become Ruled By Its Military-Industrial Complex?
    Zuesse: How Did America Become Ruled By Its Military-Industrial Complex?

    Authored by Eric Zuesse,

    The U.S. Government spends on its military, annually, in not just its ‘Defense’ Department, but all of its departments taken together, around $1.5 trillion dollars.  (Much of that money is hidden in the Treasury Department and others, in order to convey to the public the false idea that ‘only’ around 800 billion dollars annually is now being spent for the U.S. military.)

    On 25 April 2022, the Stockholm Internal Peace Research Foundation (SIPRI) headlined “World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time”, and reported that, “US military spending amounted to $801 billion in 2021, a drop of 1.4 per cent from 2020. The US military burden decreased slightly from 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2020 to 3.5 per cent in 2021.” However, they did not include the full U.S. figure, but only the portions of it that are being paid out by the U.S. ‘Defense’ Department. Consequently, a more realistic global total would have been around $2.8 trillion, which is around twice the approximately $1.5T U.S. annual military expenditure. All of the world’s other 172 calculated countries, together, had spent an amount approximately equivalent to that.

    Prior to the creation by U.S. President Harry S. Truman of the U.S. ‘Defense’ Department, on 18 September 1947, replacing the U.S. War Department that had been created on 7 August 1789 by America’s Founders (shortly after the U.S. Constitution had become effective on 4 March 1789), the U.S. was a democracy — however flawed, but a real one, nevertheless.

    The U.S. actually began its transformation into a dictatorship (serving the owners of the military corporations and of their extraction-corporate dependencies such as Chevron) when, on 25 July 1945, Truman decided that if the U.S. wouldn’t conquer the Soviet Union, then the Soviet Union would conquer the U.S., and, so, he started the Cold War, on that date, determined that his top priority as the U.S. President, would be to place the U.S. Government onto a virtually permanent war-footing, even though World War II against imperialistic fascisms (the “Axis” powers) was just about to end at that time, and would clearly be a victory for the U.S. allies — mainly, the Soviet Union, and the UK empire.

    Truman, very much unlike his immediate predecessor, FDR, who had been a passionately committed anti-imperialist, had previously been on the fence about empires; but, going forward after that date, he would be totally committed to making the entire world into the first-ever single global empire, which would be in control over the entire planet by the U.S. Government and shared only by its ‘allies’ (vassal nations). That was Truman’s American dream, and it contrasted starkly against FDR’s dream of a future United Nations that would possess a global monopoly on all strategic weaponry and serve as a democratic global federal republic of all nations, each of which nation would have its own legal system for internal affairs, but all of which nations would be subject to the sole authority of the United Nations regarding all international matters. Truman despised FDR and got rid of FDR’s entire Cabinet and close advisors, within less than two years.

    Truman enormously admired General Dwight Eisenhower, whose advice to him had clinched in Truman’s mind on 25 July 1945 that Winston Churchill was right that if the U.S. would not conquer the Soviet Union, then the Soviet Union would conquer the United States.

    (Eisenhower, at the very end of his own Presidency, warned Americans against the military-industrial complex that Truman and he himself had jointly created. He was one of history’s slickest liars, and wanted history to remember him as having been a man of peace. He was actually just as much of an imperialist as Truman had been.)

    And that decision, by Truman, on that date, is what placed the U.S. Government inexorably onto the path toward future rule by a military-industrial complex that would rape the U.S. Constitution — undo the most important achievement of America’s Founders.

    The U.S. Constitution had been written by people who loathed the very concept of “standing armies” — any permanent-war government. They had rebelled against an empire, and condemned all empires. This is the reason why they did everything within their power to design a Government that would prohibit any such thing here. And their Government, designed in this way, served the nation well throughout the years from 1789-1947, after which their Constitution gradually became practically abandoned.

    A document dated 21 January 1946 from the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, and titled “STATEMENT OF EFFECT OF ATOMIC WEAPONS ON NATIONAL SECURITY AND MILITARY ORGANIZATION”, opened with a “Memorandum by the Chief of Staff, U.S. Army,” which itself opened:

    Upon reading the Joint Strategic Survey Committee’s statement on the above subject (J.C.S. 1477/5), I obtained a somewhat unfavorable over-all impression. While most of the specific statements made seem reasonable, the over-all tone seems to depreciate the importance of of the development of atomic weapons and to insist unnecessarily strongly that the conventional armed services will not be eliminated. While I agree entirely, so far as the immediate future is concerned, with the latter concept, I have not felt that there is strong public demand at the present that the services be in fact eliminated. The general tone of the statement might therefore be misconstrued by Congress and the public, and be looked upon as an indication of reactionism on the part of the military and an unwillingness under any circumstances to reduce the size of the military establishment.

    That was at a time when the widespread American assumption was that there would continue to be no standing army in this country.

    Within less than two years of FDR’s death on 12 April 1945, such a permanent-war U.S. Government became officially created. FDR’s plan for a U.N. that would internationally outlaw all empires became replaced by Truman’s plan for an America that would itself become what Hitler, himself, had only aspired to create: the world’s very first all-encompassing global empire. Truman’s dream is today’s American dream, in today’s Washington DC; and here was how the Nobel Peace-Prize-winning U.S. President, Barack Obama (the other of history’s slickest liars), stated it to graduating West Point cadets, on 28 May 2014:

    The United States is and remains the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century passed and it will be true for the century to come. … Russia’s aggression toward former Soviet states unnerves capitals in Europe, while China’s economic rise and military reach worries its neighbors. From Brazil to India, rising middle classes compete with us, and governments seek a greater say in global forums. … It will be your generation’s task to respond to this new world.

    It’s endlessly onward and upward, for the U.S. All other nations are “dispensable.” And that objective is backed-up now, by half of the world’s military expenditures.

    This is how it happened. It happened by deceit, at every step of the way.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 23:40

  • Mapping The Migration Of The World's Millionaires
    Mapping The Migration Of The World’s Millionaires

    Throughout 2022, a projected 88,000 millionaires will move to a new country, according to the latest Henley Global Citizens Report.

    Which countries are these millionaires moving to, and where in the world are they coming from?

    This graphic below, created by Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang and Nick Routley, maps the migration of high net worth individuals (HNWIs)—people with a net worth of over US$1 million—showing where rich people are flocking, and where they’re fleeing.

    Migration of Millionaires is Back

    Before diving into the country-specific data, it’s worth taking a step back to look at overall millionaire migration trends, and how things are changing this year.

    2020 saw a drastic drop in the number of millionaire migrants, as pandemic-induced lockdowns kept people from leaving their home countries—and at times, their homes in general.

    But as restrictions ease and countries begin to open up their borders again, the migration of millionaires is beginning to gather steam once again:

    Below, we’ll dive into which countries are seeing the highest number of HNWI migrants, and which ones are losing the most HNWIs.

    Which Countries Are Millionaires Leaving?

    There are a plethora of reasons why the ultra-rich move countries. Escaping conflict is one of them, which is why it’s no surprise to see Russia and Ukraine are projected to see some of the biggest emigration numbers by the end of 2022.

     

    Figures rounded to the nearest 100.

     

    While Russia is expected to see 15,000 millionaires leaving the country, Ukraine is projected to experience the highest loss in percentage terms—a whopping 42% of its HNWIs could leave the country by the end of 2022.

    China could also see a big loss in its millionaire population, with a projected loss of 10,000.
    According to Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth, this could be more damaging to the country than in previous years, since general wealth growth in China has declined recently.

    Where Are The Ultra-Rich Moving?

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become a millionaire magnet, with a projected 4,000 HNWIs flowing into the country by the end of 2022. This influx of ultra-wealthy people is partly because of the country’s accommodating immigration policies that are specially tailored to attract private wealth and international talent.

     

    Australia continues to attract HNWIs, coming in second behind the UAE. According to New World Wealth, approximately 80,000 millionaires have moved to the Land Down Under in the last two decades.

     

    A few things that attract migrants to Australia are the country’s low costs of healthcare, its lack of inheritance tax, and its generally prosperous economy.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 23:20

  • US Investors Continue To Fund The Chinese Military
    US Investors Continue To Fund The Chinese Military

    Op-Ed authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued an online FAQ allowing Americans to continue funding China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

    American flags fly outside the New York Stock Exchange in the Financial District in New York, on Jan. 14, 2022. (Mary Altaffer/AP Photo)

    The PLA is on the verge of launching its third aircraft carrier as part of its $9 billion dollar carrier program. This hefty price tag represents a small fraction of money the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has received from U.S. investors.

    China “exploits United States investors to finance the development and modernization of its military” wrote then-U.S. President Donald Trump on Nov. 12, 2020, in an executive order banning investment in Chinese stocks linked to the PLA. In the order, Trump accurately said that the key to the CCP’s military and intelligence development is the funding it receives from the U.S. private economy.

    According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, there were 261 Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges with a combined value of $1.4 trillion as of March 2022.

    Nina Xiang of China Money Network confirmed Trump’s statement that China depends on the United States to fund its development. The BBC also reported Xiang saying that losing access to U.S. markets would have a “devastating impact on China’s innovation ecosystem and future development.”

    The pockets of U.S. investors are deep and the CCP would have difficulty covering China’s $229 billion defense budget if state-linked firms were kicked off of U.S. exchanges. The two major exchanges in New York, the NYSE and the NASDAQ, are four times the size of the combined Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.

    In a continuation of Trump’s 2020 executive order, President Joe Biden issued an executive order this month adding 59 PLA-linked Chinese companies to the U.S. blacklist. Biden’s executive order also mandated a one-year deadline for Americans to divest themselves from the blacklisted stocks.

    On June 1, just two days before the deadline, the OFAC issued an online FAQ regarding blacklisted entities, which caused a great deal of confusion.

    The FAQ states: “No. E.O. 13959, as amended, does not require U.S. financial institutions to block transactions. However, transactions that would be prohibited under E.O. 13959, as amended (including an attempted sale of covered securities by a U.S. person made to effect the divestment of CMIC securities after the 365-day divestment period), must be rejected and reported to OFAC within 10 business days.”

    From this statement, it is unclear if Americans must adhere to the 365-day deadline to divest themselves of blacklisted stocks.

    The FAQ goes on to say, “Consistent with FAQ 863, U.S. financial institutions may continue to intermediate purchases or sales by or from non-U.S. persons to or for non-U.S. persons.” It also says that U.S. entities may continue to receive dividends from these investments.

    The ambiguity of the FAQ has been understood differently by various law firms. Ropes & Gray, a global law firm, interpreted the order as meaning that U.S. investors had to divest of the blacklisted securities by June 3, although it is unclear what the penalty would be should they fail to do so.

    In contrast, Norton Rose Fulbright told its clients that the deadline is no longer in force. And this seems consistent with part of the FAQ stating, “U.S. persons are not required to divest their holdings of CMIC securities during the relevant 365-day divestment period and may continue to hold such securities after the divestment period.”

    Investment banks also had differing reactions to the executive orders. Morgan Stanley sold off a large number of shares in one of the blacklisted firms, Zhonghang Electronic Measuring, dropping from being the eight largest shareholder to no longer being in the top 10 as of March 31.

    A DJI Mavic 2 Pro and DJi Mavic Mini made by the Chinese drone maker fly near each other in Miami, Fla, on Dec. 15, 2021. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Other investment banks and investors have chosen to hold their positions, waiting and seeing how the rules and enforcement play out. However, it is apparent that many investors have decided to divest themselves of the stocks as the shares of Zhonghang and many other blacklisted firms have dropped significantly in value since last June.

    While it is unclear when, if ever, Americans must divest themselves of existing shares of blacklisted firms, U.S. entities are barred from purchasing new investments in the CCP’s military-industrial complex under the executive orders. And this prohibition extends to firms working in research with applications for military, intelligence, and security.

    As for divestment, Derek Scissors, a Republican appointee to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, told Nikkei on June 7 that those who are still holding the blacklisted securities are in a wait-and-see mode.

    But some investors were not in a hurry to sell shares that are losing value. Perhaps the holdouts may wind up the winners. Meanwhile, the CCP continues using U.S. money to fund its military modernization. Leading global agency for open-source defense intelligence Janes estimates that the CCP’s defense budget may actually be $58 billion more than the official number, bringing the total to $287.8 billion. And for at least the immediate future, they can rely on U.S. investors to keep footing the bill.

    Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or Zero Hedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 23:00

  • The State Of Global War (And Peace)
    The State Of Global War (And Peace)

    The 2022 edition of the Global Peace Index released by The Institute for Economics and Peace has found that global peacefulness has declined for the eleventh time in the last 14 years. It ranks peace levels using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators across 163 independent states and territories, covering 99.7 percent of the world’s population.

    This time around, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, peace has deteriorated in 71 countries while the situation has improved in 90.

    Infographic: The State of Global Peace | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Iceland was once again the top-ranked country for peace in 2022, a position it has held since 2008. It is joined at the top of the index by New Zeland, Ireland, Denmark, Austria and Portugal. By contrast, the United States only managed to land in spot 129. Afghanistan was at the very bottom of the index, preceded by Yemen and Syria.

    The current conflict in Ukraine had the country fall 17 spots into rank 153 out of 163. Other countries deteriorated more, however, as the situation in Ukraine had already been ranked poorly due to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine that preceeded the Russian invasion.

    The countries falling the most on the index in 2022 compared to one year earlier were Eswatini, Kazakhstan, Guinea and Kyrgyzstan.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 22:40

  • Fentanyl Entering US Through Southern Border at "Unprecedented Levels": Rep. Higgins
    Fentanyl Entering US Through Southern Border at “Unprecedented Levels”: Rep. Higgins

    By J.M Phelps of The Epoch Times

    Implementing a new law to punish traffickers of fentanyl and declaring deaths from the drug as a health crisis could curb the damage it is doing to the country.

    Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) speaks during a House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing on gun violence on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 8, 2022. (Andrew Harnik/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Epoch Times spoke to Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) about the growing fentanyl crisis in the United States. The Republican lawmaker represents Louisiana’s 3rd congressional district, which includes Lafayette Parish. According to the local coroner, there were 32 drug-related deaths in 2015, and fentanyl was not associated with any of them. However, by 2021, the number of deaths rose to 136 and fentanyl was responsible for 101.

    According to the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), fentanyl is the driving force of a deadly nationwide epidemic. Preliminary data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that fentanyl was involved in 77 percent of overdose deaths in the United States in 2021, accounting for about 71,000 deaths.

    “The fentanyl crisis the country is facing right now must be confronted at the local, state, and federal level,” Higgins said.

    The country has to start working together, he said, adding that the nation needs to confront the border crisis and influx of fentanyl “without abusing law enforcement jurisdictional authority, without abusing sovereignty, [and] without abusing rights.”

    “It all has to be done while operating within the parameters of the law and the Constitution,” said Higgins. Fentanyl trafficking, in particular, must be “attacked passionately and aggressively,” he added.

    Title 42 Reinterpreted

    The Biden administration had hoped to end Title 42 by the end of May. Title 42 was the Trump-era initiative put in place in March 2020 to slow the spread of COVID-19, allowing illegal immigrants to be quickly turned away at the southern U.S. border rather than processed at immigration detention facilities under Title 8 immigration law.

    However, a Texas judge recently blocked the cancellation of the public health order that has been used to expel illegal migrants.

    While Higgins is pleased with the extension, he said it is time for a “reinterpretation of Title 42 within the parameters of the Constitution.” According to the lawmaker, “the fentanyl crisis can now be more effectively defined as a health crisis than the COVID pandemic.”

    “With regard to Title 42 enforcement,” Higgins said, “the definition of health crisis needs to be expanded to include the fentanyl crisis, [because] overdoes are certainly a threat to the health of tens of thousands of people.”

    Stop the Flood

    Higgins said, “Something has to be done to fight against the fentanyl entering [the United States] through the southern border.”

    “We have lost operational control of the southern border months ago, and fentanyl is entering the country at unprecedented levels—and there’s no end in sight,” he added.

    Continue reading at Epoch Times

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 22:20

  • Ukraine Unveils Mini "Terminator" Ground Robot Equipped With Machine Gun
    Ukraine Unveils Mini “Terminator” Ground Robot Equipped With Machine Gun

    The latest war machine headed to Ukraine’s front lines isn’t a flying drone but a miniature 4×4 ground-based robot — equipped with a machine gun. 

    According to Forbes, Ukrainian forces are set to receive an uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) called “GNOM” that is no bigger than a standard microwave and weighs around 110lbs. 

    GNOM isn’t radio-controlled and has a 2,000 meter (1.25 mile) spool of fiber-optic cable mounted on the rear that offers operators a jam-proof way to control it on the modern battlefield without being detected or signal jammed by Russian electronic warfare equipment. 

    “Control of GNOM is possible in the most aggressive environment during the operation of the enemy’s electronic warfare equipment.

    “The operator doesn’t deploy a control station with an antenna, and does not unmask his position. The cable is not visible, and it also does not create thermal radiation that could be seen by a thermal imager,” said Eduard Trotsenko, CEO and owner of Temerland, the maker of the GNOM.

    “While it is usually operated by remote control, GNOM clearly has some onboard intelligence and is capable of autonomous navigation. Previous Temerland designs have included advanced neural network and machine learning hardware and software providing a high degree of autonomy, so the company seems to have experience,” Forbes said.

    The 7.62mm machinegun mounted on top of the “Terminator-style” robot will provide fire support for Ukrainian forces in dangerous areas. The UGV can also transport ammunition or other supplies to the front lines and even evacuate wounded soldiers with a special trailer. 

    Temerland said the GNOMs would be deployed near term. The highly sophisticated UGV could help the Ukrainians become more stealthy and lethal on the modern battlefield as they have also been utilizing Western drones. 

    Killer robots with machine guns appear to be entering the battlefield, and this one seems as if it was “WALL-E” that went to war. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 22:00

  • China's Lockdowns And Heavy Rains Ease Coal Shortage
    China’s Lockdowns And Heavy Rains Ease Coal Shortage

    By John Kemp, senior energy analyst at Reuters

    China’s electricity generation experienced rare declines in April and May compared with the same months a year earlier as lockdowns imposed to stop the spread of the coronavirus curbed consumption.

    But slower consumption growth coupled with heavy rains across southern provinces, which has boosted hydro generation to a record high, has accelerated replenishment of coal inventories after shortages in 2021.

    As a result, the coal supply situation is likely to be much more comfortable heading into the winter of 2022/23 than it was ahead of winter 2021/22. Generation from all sources was down 3%-4% in April and May compared with the same months in 2021, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

    Generation has declined year-on-year in only 12 of the last 131 months; this was the first back-to-back decline since the first wave of the epidemic in 2020, illustrating the impact lockdowns have had on the economy.

    Output in the first five months as a whole totalled 3,248 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), an increase of just 71 billion kWh (2.2%) from the same period in 2021. Nearly all of the increase came from hydro-electric generators, which boosted output by 66 billion kWh compared with 2021.

    There were also increases in generation from wind farms (+49 billion kWh), solar farms (+19 billion kWh) and nuclear units (+7 billion kWh). By contrast, output from thermal units, nearly all of which burn coal, declined by 71 billion kWh compared with the same period in 2021.

    Southern Rainfall

    Hydro output in the first five months totalled 435 billion kWh, up from 368 billion kWh in 2021, surpassing the previous seasonal record of 400 billion kWh in 2019.

    The surge in hydro generation has been driven by the unusually heavy rainfall which has lashed southern China since the start of the year.

    In some parts of southern China, rainfall has been the heaviest for 60 years (“Southern China hit by severe rains, floods as ‘dragon boat water’ peaks”, Reuters, June 21).

    The Ministry of Water Resources has issued flood alerts across most southern provinces since the start of June (“China launches level-IV emergency response for rain in southern areas”, MWR, June 13).

    In response, top officials from the central government have been supervising massive releases from the upstream dams to manage flood risk in the region’s major river systems.

    For example, total precipitation at Xiangjiaba on Jinsha River, at the border of Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, and the site of one of the country’s mega-dams, has been more than 50% higher than the average in 2014-2021.

    Cumulative precipitation at Xiangjiaba so far this year has been 571 millimetres, up from 267 at the same point in 2021, and the highest since 2016.

    Xiangjiaba’s massive generating station has installed capacity of more than 6 Gigawatts and sends power through a high-voltage transmission link to Shanghai.

    Torrential rainfall has allowed hydro-electric generators across southern China to ramp up output earlier this year and should enable them to sustain it at a higher level for longer, saving coal.

    More output from hydro plus wind, solar and nuclear is in turn relieving pressure on thermal generators and should allow them to accumulate coal stocks faster ahead of next winter.

    Since the start of the year, the central government has pressed both coal mining companies and power generators to increase stocks at power plants to prevent a re-run of last year’s shortages.

    The slowdown in electricity consumption and boost in hydro and other alternatives has made that policy far more effective and should reduce the risk of power rationing later in the year.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 21:40

  • Visualizing The World's Most Popular Religions
    Visualizing The World’s Most Popular Religions

    According to some estimates, there are over 4,000 religions, faiths groups, and denominations that exist around the world today. Researchers and academics generally categorize the world’s religions into five major groups: Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Judaism.

    This graphic by Chit Chart visualizes the most popular religions around the world, using the latest available data from Index Mundi’s world demographics.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Trixie Pacis, in addition to the five major religious groups, the graphic includes two more categories: one for a collective of Folk religions and another for people who are unaffiliated with a religion.

    The Religions with the Most Followers

    Although the number of people who follow a religion has decreased in recent decades, 82.8% of the global population still identifies with one of the world’s major religions.

    Here’s a breakdown of the most popular religions, ranked by their following as a percentage of the world’s population:

    Christianity has the largest following with approximately 31% of the global population. Muslims make up the second-largest religious group, accounting for 23.2% of the world’s population.

    Roughly 16.4% of the global population is unaffiliated with a religion. This figure exceeds the percentage of people who identify with Hinduism (15%), Buddhism (7.1%), Folk Religions (5.9%), or Judaism (0.2%).

    The World’s Religions from Oldest to Newest

    Hinduism is considered the oldest religion in the world, originating in the Indus River Valley (modern-day Pakistan) circa 7000 BCE.

    While Judaism came after Hinduism, it is thought to be the oldest of the three monotheistic Abrahamic faiths, making it older than Christianity and Islam.

    It began circa 2000 BCE in the Southern Levant (modern-day Israel, Palestine, and Jordan). By contrast, Christianity was founded in the 1st century and began as a movement within Judaism.

    Scholars typically date the creation of Islam to the 7th century, making it the youngest of the world’s major religions on this list. Islam was established in Mecca (modern-day Saudi-Arabia).

    One religion that’s not included on this list is Sikhism. Founded in the late 15th century, it’s relatively new, especially compared to other religions like Hinduism or Judaism. Yet, despite being new, Sikhism has a large following—according to some estimates, there are over 25 million Sikhs worldwide.

    What are Folk Religions?

    A folk religion is defined as an ethnic or cultural practice that exists outside the theological doctrine of organized religions.

    Lacking sacred texts, Folk religions are more concerned with spirituality than rituals or rites. Examples of Folk religions include Native American traditions, Chinese folk religions, and traditional African religions.

    Since Folk religions are less institutionalized, they are especially challenging to measure and often excluded from surveys. With that said, an estimated 5.9% of the global population (approximately 430 million people) practice a Folk religion.

    The Fastest-Growing Religions

    While Islam is the newest of the big five religions, it’s currently the world’s fastest-growing one too. For context, here’s the estimated percent change among the seven religion categories, between 2015 and 2060:

    Islam’s rapid growth means it may surpass Christianity as the world’s largest religion within the next half-century. What’s causing this growth?

    According to Pew Research Center, the main reason is simply demographics—on average, Muslim women have 2.9 children, which the average of all non-Muslims is 2.2.

    Muslims are also concentrated in Africa and the Middle East, the two regions predicted to have the highest population increases in the next few decades.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 21:20

  • Watch: Jetliner Erupts In Flames At Miami Airport After Crash Landing 
    Watch: Jetliner Erupts In Flames At Miami Airport After Crash Landing 

    On Tuesday evening, a plane carrying over 100 people from the Dominican Republic crash-landed at Miami International Airport (MIA).

    Local news WSVN reports Red Air Flight 203’s landing gear collapsed upon landing at MIA around 1730 ET. Here’s the moment the plane crashed: 

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    WSVN said 140 people and 11 crew members were on board when the plane collided with a communications/radar tower on the ground and skidded off the runway, instantly bursting into flames. 

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    Miami-Dade Fire-Rescue (MDFR) tweeted they arrived at the scene and quickly “placed the fire under control.” 

    “All souls on board have been assessed for injuries. A total of 3 patients have been transported to local area hospitals,” MDFR said. 

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    An airport spokesperson said multiple flights had been delayed, and two of the airport’s four runways were closed. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 21:02

  • Information Workers Operating Remotely Less Productive Over Long Term, Study Claims
    Information Workers Operating Remotely Less Productive Over Long Term, Study Claims

    Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times,

    Information workers doing their job remotely have been found to be less productive over the long term, according to a study on staff at Microsoft.

    Whilst the study’s authors observed a productivity increase in the short-term immediately after companies made a switch from in-office to working remotely, work hours increased over a prolonged period, which was indicative of reduced productivity.

    Communication between employees became more static, with reductions in the formation and deletion of new contacts between employees, the study found.

    Researchers noted a “siloed” network, with fewer connections between formal business units, and within informal networks, creating condensed groups with few connections. Studies have shown, that compacted networks with limited connections impede the transfer of information, and reduce the quality of output.

    Further, employees would preferentially communicate with people they knew well in the same team, rather than newly-formed contacts that serve as a “tie” between teams and departments. Staff reduced the time they spent with workers that serve as bridges between work units.

    Additionally, rather than communicating synchronously through calls and video calls, there was an increase in asynchronous communication through texts and messaging.

    “In other words,” the authors wrote in the study, “different portions of the network, which became less interconnected, also became more intraconnected.”

    “We expect that the effects we observe on workers’ collaboration and communication patterns will impact productivity and, in the long-term, innovation,” they wrote.

    Variations

    Work arrangement variations brought on by the pandemic are expected to continue despite the crisis being mostly over, the study speculated.

    The study said company and innovation investments made during the pandemic to support remote working, may lead to longer-termed remote or hybrid working arrangements in major companies for some time.

    Tesla, however, has gone the opposite direction with Tesla CEO and founder Elon Musk emailing his staff to return to work in the office for at least 40 hours a week, otherwise “we will assume you have resigned,” on May 31.

    Before the Pandemic

    The pandemic has affected how companies make their workplace arrangements.

    Before the pandemic, around 6 percent of Americans worked remotely, while during the pandemic, however, over a third worked from home.

    A majority of companies may not keep the full remote work policies after the pandemic but a survey of 800 executives by Mckinsey revealed workplaces are also unlikely to return to their pre-COVID-19 work arrangements.

    Most likely they will switch to a hybrid work model with a mixture of in-office and remote work arrangements.

    Investments in Workers

    The study on Microsoft staff further highlighted concerns about how the pandemic affected working arrangements for employees, with companies such as Twitter, Facebook, Square, Box Slack, and Quora taking the shift “one step further,” by introducing longer-term and even permanent positions that will allow employees to work remotely even after the pandemic.

    The authors suggested that firms making these decisions without evidence of improved productivity “may set suboptimal policies,” with “some firms that choose a permanent remote work policy may put themselves at a disadvantage by making it more difficult for workers to collaborate and exchange information.”

    Investments in workers and firms, as well as innovations made to support remote work, make it likely that some versions of remote work will persist after the pandemic.

    “In light of this fact, the importance of deepening our understanding of remote work and its impacts has never been greater,” the authors concluded.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 21:00

  • Americans Panic-Searched Buying Guns After Biden Threatens More Gun Control
    Americans Panic-Searched Buying Guns After Biden Threatens More Gun Control

    A new report examines internet search patterns to track public interest in gun buying after the tragic school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. 

    Researchers from Lawsuit.org found Google keyword searches related to purchasing guns erupted after the Robb Elementary School shooting that left 19 children and two teachers dead on May 24. Shortly after, the Biden administration talked tough on guns and threatened new restrictive measures on buying, which drove internet searches even higher. 

    “Predictably, public tragedies spark fear of new or better enforced gun laws, which then impacts demand for guns,” Lawsuit’s Kristin Tynski wrote in the report. 

    Search data was pulled from May 1 to June 14. US gun-related internet searches were low-volume (blue) before the school shooting. Immediately after, the country turned red, meaning high search volumes. This shows that the shooting most likely caused another gun-buying panic as many fear the Biden administration will clamp down on AR-15-style rifles. 

    Daily search volume shows “AR-15,” “Buy a Gun,” and “Gun Store” experienced significant spikes in activity after the shooting. 

    Daily Search Volume for “AR-15”

    AR-15 searches before the shooting hovered at about 8,000 weekly searches. Immediately after the shooting, that figure spiked to 43,000 searches per week, maintaining volumes in the 30k-50k per week range since.

    Daily Search Volume for “Buy a Gun”

    “Gun Store” searches before the shooting hovered at about 18,000 weekly searches. Immediately after the shooting, that figure spiked to nearly 80,000 searches per week, dropping off quickly, but still maintaining search volumes of 35,000-50,000 weekly searches since.

    Daily Search Volume for “Gun Store”

    “Buy a Gun” searches before the shooting hovered at about 52,000 weekly searches. Immediately after the shooting, that figure spiked to 74,000 searches per week in the week after the shooting, and maintaining significant or even growing slightly since.

    Americans are panic-searching what to buy, how to buy, and where to buy a gun because Democratic lawmakers are threatening massive new taxes, up to 1,000%, which would mean only people with lots of money could afford it. 

    “With the political debate about changing gun laws to make it more difficult to buy a gun, many Americans are looking to buy one ahead of any new laws that emerge,” Tynski said. 

    Separately, we noted how internet search trends for bulletproof backpacks soared after the school shooting. 

    With every big push for gun control on a state and federal level, there will always be panic buying among the American populace. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 20:40

  • Logistics Costs As A Percentage Of GDP Hit Highest Level In 13 Years
    Logistics Costs As A Percentage Of GDP Hit Highest Level In 13 Years

    By Mark Solomon of FreightWaves

    The 33rd annual State of Logistics Report, the year-over-year report card of the U.S. business logistics system, confirmed empirically what everyone already knew: 2021 was nirvana or a nightmare depending on what one does for a living.

    Total logistics costs, which measure how much was spent on transportation, warehousing and ancillary services such as support and administrative, soared 22.4% last year to nearly $1.85 trillion, according to the report. That was equal to 8% of the U.S. GDP, a level not seen since 2008, said the report, which was released by the trade group Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP) Tuesday morning.

    Demand spiked across every mode and service. Businesses desperate for reliable motor carrier capacity powered a 39.3% jump in spending on private fleets or dedicated contract carriage to $415.2 billion. Inventory carrying costs jumped 25% to $502 billion as surging warehouse demand and supply chain congestion filled facilities to overflowing. The capital costs of carrying mountains of inventory jumped 33.4%. 

    Spending on waterborne services surged 23.6% as ocean carriers leveraged massive rate increases on international sea routes to make more money in 2021 than in the prior 20 years combined, the report said.

    Spending on parcel-delivery services jumped 15.6% and produced a five-year compounded annual growth rate of 11.4%, the highest of all the report’s cost components.

    All of this led to a fattening of carrier profits at a time when shippers felt the double whammy of shrinking margins and declining service levels, according to the report. Shippers of all types “longed for the days” when service levels that are now considered acceptable were viewed as major failures, the report said.

    Through the report’s long history, a relatively high costs-to-GDP ratio reflected network inefficiencies that forced users to spend more to get goods to market. Network inefficiencies were certainly evident in 2021, along with an unprecedented surge in goods demand that is one of the legacies of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Given the events of the first half of 2022, it is clear that next year’s report will look different than this year’s. Consumer demand has cooled off in the wake of higher inflation and the waning effects of pandemic-related government stimulus. Rising interest rates will curtail spending even more. 

    Consumers worried about cost increases and the possibility of a recession will not be spending nearly as freely this year as they did in the past two. More service-related consumption, especially in travel and entertainment, will cut into goods-spending activity.

    Some of that change is showing up in the daily logistics ebb-and-flow. Ron Marotta, vice president of supply chain solutions for the Americas division of freight forwarding and contract logistics firm Yusen Logistics, said on a conference call with reporters last Friday that ocean freight shippers are increasingly looking to negotiate their carrier contracts as more liner capacity opens up. 

    In a sign that ocean supply and demand might be returning to some form of balance, Yusen has worked off virtually all of its cargo backlogs, some of which have built up over two years, Marotta said. The overall environment, he said, has become “more favorable to shippers.”

    While the dual misery of transport delays and higher rates may abate somewhat for shippers, the report’s authors cautioned that the pendulum will not abruptly swing back to capacity abundance and lower rates. E-commerce and last-mile delivery demand will remain elevated and some supply bottlenecks will not loosen easily, they wrote.

    Higher borrowing costs will continue to push up the expense of holding the many billions of dollars of inventory sitting in warehouses and distribution centers. The already-complex task of managing a dizzying array of stock-keeping units will only be compounded by the higher interest expense, said Andy Moses, senior vice president of sales and solutions at 3PL Penske Logistics.

    The continued upward march in interest rates will “expose any inefficient process management in the warehouse trade,” Moses said last Friday.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 20:20

  • Senate Releases Text Of Gun Bill That Would Mark 'Biggest Change In Decades'
    Senate Releases Text Of Gun Bill That Would Mark ‘Biggest Change In Decades’

    A group of bipartisan Senate negotiators on Tuesday released proposed legislation to limit ownership of firearms in what would mark the biggest change to firearms laws in decades.

    Photo via Politico

    The proposed legislation, which comes after a week of negotiations following deadly mass shootings at a Buffalo, NY supermarket and an elementary school in Uvalde Texas, was endorsed by Senate leaders from both parties, raising the likelihood it will be passed in the evenly divided chamber, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    “We’ve reached agreement,” announced Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) on Tuesday, adding “We’re dotting i’s and crossing the t’s right now. I think we’re in good shape.”

    What’s in the bill?

    As anticipated, it would provide incentives for states to enforce extreme protection orders, also known as red-flag laws, which would allow authorities to seize a person’s weapons if they are deemed dangerous to themselves or others.

    Another expected provision is the boyfriend loophole, which would prohibit dating partners or recent dating partners convicted of domestic violence from purchasing a gun – and which would expire after five years if they haven’t been convicted of any other violent crime, two people familiar with the bill told the Journal.

    In addition, it would establish a grant program for states to expand mental health services, as well as enhanced safety measures for schools (which, we’re guessing, won’t include arming teachers or other school staff).

    It will also include some type of crackdown on illegal sales of guns, and would require a review of juvenile records – including mental health records – for 18-21-year-old gun buyers.

    “Unless a person is convicted of a crime or is adjudicated mentally ill, their ability to purchase a firearm will not be impacted by this legislation,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the top GOP negotiator.

    The Senate is aiming to pass the legislation this week, but recent delays have put that timeline in question as leaders would need agreement from all 100 senators to waive some timing rules. President Biden and Democratic leaders in the House have said they would support the bill, though it excludes some measures they demanded, such as raising the age limit for purchasing semiautomatic weapons to 21.

    The gun legislation is expected to cost several billion dollars, though lawmakers aren’t insisting on waiting for a formal cost estimate to vote on it. One way lawmakers are discussing paying for the legislation is by further delaying the end of a Trump-era rule for rebates that drugmakers give to middlemen in Medicare. The rule never took effect, but because it was expected to cost the government money, Congress can claim a savings. -WSJ

    According to people familiar with the matter, negotiators hit a snag when Republicans wanted to include language which would ban the use of federal funds in the bill for abortions, a stumbling block that has since been resolved and removed.

    At least 60 votes will be required to advance the bill in the Senate, meaning at least 10 Republicans will need to vote for the bill which is now much more narrow than Democrats had hoped for, according to the report.

    Still, the legislation would be the most significant firearms legislation since Congress voted to ban so-called ‘assault weapons’ (aka scary-looking rifles that still shoot one bullet per trigger pull) in 1994, which lapsed a decade later.

    We imagine gun sales are going through the roof right about now.

    * * * 

    Read the full Senate gun bill below: 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 20:00

  • Tesla Cars Banned From Chinese Town For Two Months Over Spying Fears 
    Tesla Cars Banned From Chinese Town For Two Months Over Spying Fears 

    Chinese officials are set to temporarily ban all Tesla vehicles from entering a coastal resort town over fears of spying ahead of what could be a super-secretive government meeting.

    Reuters reports a police official confirmed Teslas entering Beidaihe, a coastal resort town on northeast China’s Bohai Sea, about three hours from Beijing, will be banned on July 1 from entering the city for two months. The decision comes one month after Teslas were restricted from driving in the central city of Chengdu ahead of a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping last month. 

    The Beidaihe Traffic Police Brigade official provided no details on why the American vehicles would be banned but said it concerned “national affairs.” The resort town has traditionally been where top Chinese leadership gathers to discuss policy ideas. 

    One reason Chinese officials might be concerned about Teslas is that each vehicle is equipped with eight cameras and sensors that provide 360 degrees of visibility at up to 250 meters of range to power Autopilot. The cameras likely pose a threat to national security, but that was not mentioned by the official or Reuters. 

    Last year, the People’s Liberation Army restricted Teslas from military bases over spying fears because of the multiple cameras that record and send data back to Tesla to improve its Autopilot. At the time, Tesla chief executive officer Elon Musk said the vehicles didn’t spy and had to reroute all the data each vehicle in China collects to a database within the country. 

    Despite Chinese Teslas sending their data to domestic data centers, the American vehicles still face heightened scrutiny over spying. Vice versa, Washington has fears Chinese-made drones are spying on US infrastructure and has banned the Department of Defense from purchasing them.  

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 19:20

  • 144 Million Americans Now Live In States With Legal Recreational Marijuana
    144 Million Americans Now Live In States With Legal Recreational Marijuana

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Advocates for marijuana legalization won another victory  last month when Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee signed new legislation legalizing recreational marijuana in the the state. New Hampshire—where cannabis is “only” decriminalized and legal for medical purposes—is now the only state in New England where recreational marijuana is not legal. 

    With Rhode Island now added to the legalization bloc, this means more than 144 million Americans now live in states where recreational cannabis has been legalized. That’s 43% of the US population.

    Proportion of US population by cannabis legalization status:

    Rhode Island is also one of a growing number of states where recreational cannabis has been legalized through the legislative process rather than through statewide referenda or voter initiatives. Initially, recreational legalization was only politically possibly through voter initiatives, as legislators refused to approve legalization themselves. The first successful cases of this were in Colorado and Washington State in 2012, and that was followed in 2014 by Alaska and Oregon. Since then, recreational cannabis has been legalized through a variety of methods in 15 other states for a total of 19.

    Were these states to combine to form their own country, it would be—in terms of population—the tenth largest country in the world, and only slightly smaller than Russia.

    As with gun policy, school vouchers, and apparently abortion policy, cannabis policy is increasingly dominated by state-level legislation.  With cannabis, this comes in spite of the fact that federal policy has not actually been changed in this regard. Marijuana is still formally targeted by by federal bureaucrats as an illegal substance. This continues to hamper commerce in the states in many ways. For example, it remains illegal for federally regulated financial institutions to deal directly with cannabis-related businesses. 

    Some Republican politicians have even attempted to ratchet up federal prosecutions. For example, in 2018, then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions rescinded the Cole memo. This was part of an effort to re-assert greater federal control of cannabis policy. Yet, Congressional delegations from states where recreation cannabis is legal—both Republican and Democrat—have shown an unwillingness to support federal efforts in this regard. As a result, in 2017, Congress voted to deny the Justice Department funds to enforce federal laws against medicinal marijuana.  Sessions’s plan received bipartisan opposition in Congress. Bipartisan efforts as federal legalization have been repeatedly introduced, such as the  “Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States (STATES) Act” which, is essentially a “states’ rights” bill supported by both parties in the name of reining in the drug war. (An anti-legalization bloc, based mostly in southern states, has been able to kill efforts to strengthen more localized control in drug policy.)

    These state-level movements to ignore or oppose federal policy are all firmly rooted in ideas of federalism, decentralization, and the Tenth Amendment of the Bill of Rights. From the prohibitionists who cling to centralized political power, however, we routinely hear the same slogans and pro-Washington legal theories about “federal supremacy” or how whatever Congress says is “the law of the land.”

    Both conservatives and the Left support these ideas when it serves their purposes. The Left, of course, wants uniform rule from Washington when it comes to guns. Conservatives have done the same on drugs. Republican Attorneys General even sued Colorado in an attempt to impose federal drug laws on Colorado. What these Republicans wanted was essentially a federal ruling rendering localism and the Tenth Amendment null and void. Fortunately they failed. 

    This centralizing impulse, of course, is very popular in Washington. We hear it frequently from those deeply mistaken constitutional scholars who want federal judges to use the “Incorporation Doctrine”  to decide what is and what is not legal in every state. These people—both conservatives and leftists—can often be found angrily declaring that federal law is essentially sacrosanct and state-level nullification “ain’t gonna happen.” The reality, however, is that it has happened as is happening.

    After all, political and ideological realities are such that state-level legalization has effectively meant marijuana has become de facto legal in nearly half of the country. The strategy has also helped to illustrate the potential for success with state-level legal efforts as weakening or nullifying federal law. Pro-immigration groups have tried similar tactics in some states, such as California. Similarly, some anti-gun-control policymakers—as in Missouri—have passed legislation in which state officials are prevented from enforcing federal law within state borders.  Those who love the Washington regime and the status quo will no doubt continue to press for reform only at the center. These people continue to cling to the long-discredited idea that Washington will be “fixed” if we “elect the right people.” Good luck with that. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 19:00

  • HKMA Is Blowing Billions To Defend Dollar Peg
    HKMA Is Blowing Billions To Defend Dollar Peg

    The Hong Kong Dollar dropped to its weakest against the US Dollar this morning since April 2018. This is a major problem for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) because, as a reminder for some, the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) is pegged to a tight band of between 7.75 and 7.85 versus the U.S. dollar.

    And today saw the HKD break below the lower bound of the peg, trading down to 7.8502/USD at its lows…

    The main culprit behind the local currency’s slump is the carry trade which has been reignited by The Fed hiking rates and potential capital flight out of China/HK.

    This is an arbitrage, where traders take advantage of differences in prices, selling a low-yielding product (the Hong Kong dollar) to buy a high-yielding product (the US dollar). In this case, the price difference is between the local borrowing cost known as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) and the US borrowing cost known as the Libor.

    Simply put, traders are borrowing against the low Hibor, selling the Hong Kong dollar to buy the US currency for investments in high-yielding US assets. The difference between the two is widest since March 2019… and that is pressuring the HKD against its lower peg bound.

    As more traders pile on to the carry, more pressure is placed on the Hong Kong dollar, causing it to weaken further against the US currency. As the chart above shows there has been some shift in the carry-trade-pressure since HKMA has stepped in.

    Nevertheless, HKMA is forced to step in and as CNBC reported, HKMA’s Chief Executive Eddie Yue said last month that as it intervenes and funds flow out of Hong Kong’s system, local rates should rise, removing the incentive for market players to conduct “carry trades”, and hence keep the Hong Kong dollar trading within its band.

    “All these are normal operations in accordance with the design of the Linked Exchange Rate System,” he said.

    However, the size of the flows are starting to become significant… and are having less impact. According to HKMA, its aggregate balance will decrease to about HK$241.9 billion on June 23 (from HK$338 billion in May before the interventions began again).

    That is almost HK$100 billion in reserves and The Fed’s plan to hike rates (as many as twelve more times this year) will do nothing to help ease the situation (especially since China will not be tightening its policy anytime soon) – meaning any USDs sold in defense of the weaker HKD will be battling global carry trade flows driven by The Fed’s tightening.

    As we have detailed previously, China currently has a dilemma because it has to pick either to hike, and avoid capital flight, or cut and remain competitive with Japan, whose collapsing JPY means chinese exports are getting priced out of global markets.

    The fund still has plenty of ammo to fight the carry trade pressure (for now) as we note the aggregate balance dropped to around HK$50 billion in 2019 after the last series of HKMA interventions to stop the currency weakening.

    In 2018, as the HKD plunged on the same carry flow, the HKMA CEO reassured the public “Stay calm on the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar.” So far no such warning has been issued this time.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 18:40

  • Michael Saylor Lists 10 Things For Bitcoin To Become A Stronger Asset
    Michael Saylor Lists 10 Things For Bitcoin To Become A Stronger Asset

    Authored by Shawn Amick via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    Michael Saylor, CEO of the software analytics and pro-bitcoin company MicroStrategy, recently appeared in an interview with Bloomberg to discuss 10 steps he believes will make bitcoin a stronger asset.

    “There’s about 10 things that have to happen over the next decade to make it [bitcoin] a better asset, and we kind of know what those 10 things are,” Saylor stated in the interview.

    The first on the CEO’s list of issues to be addressed is the absence of a no wash-trading rule, allowing traders to harvest loss and gains in a way that cannot happen with traditional equities markets.

    Then, Saylor mentioned the issues with the 520 unregistered and unregulated crypto exchanges offering 20x leverage, which often leads to unprotected investors taking massive losses.

    Next, the 19,000 cryptocurrencies being cross-collateralized and associated with bitcoin currently hold bitcoin back by comparing it to badly managed, unregistered securities.

    Moreover, the issue becomes worse as these securities are glorified by the next issue at hand, “wildcat banks,” which enable gammified practices offering unsustainable yield, such as was seen with the fall of the Terra ecosystem.

    Not least of all, Saylor listed ignorance and fear of the asset class, as a lack of technical know-how still terrifies many, as does media coverage telling of the many supposed deaths of bitcoin.

    However, the fear and uncertainty is not just for bitcoin as Saylor went on to explain that we currently do not have a real stablecoin, which he believes will be a major boon for the ecosystem once one is fully regulated and approved.

    Then, the CEO closed his list noting the absence of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which would allow institutions to interact with the asset of bitcoin without needing to touch it themselves.

    Finally, the three remaining points that need to be improved on in the bitcoin ecosystem revolve around the lack of regulatory guidance and support institutions currently must overcome. These points include lack of insurance, as well as guidance in becoming involved with the space.

    Prior to revealing his list of improvements that will launch bitcoin into its next bull-cycle, Saylor spent much of the interview justifying the bitcoin strategy of MicroStrategy during this recent downturn.

    “We did a lot of backtesting and I’ve gone back and looked at the numbers,” Saylor explained.

    “On August 10, 2020 when we announced our $250 million bitcoin buy, since then, bitcoin is up 72%.”

    He went on to compare it to some traditional assets over the same time period including: the NASDAQ (-2%) , gold (-9%), S&P 500 (+9%), and single-family homes (+26%).

    “The bottom line is that the bitcoin strategy is 10x better than any other alternative,” Saylor concluded.

    “So, no. I don’t regret it.” 

    Watch the full interview below:

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 18:20

  • This Is The Worst Year On Record For Markets… So Far
    This Is The Worst Year On Record For Markets… So Far

    The latest long-awaited chartbook (titled “2022 – One of the worst years on record… so far” and available to pro subs), was just published by DB’s head of thematic research Jim Reid, and among many other things, it shows how 2022 is shaping up to be one of the worst years on record for financial markets.

    In fact, as his chart of the day demonstrates, the S&P 500 is currently on track for its worst H1 performance since 1932 at the depths of the Great Depression, having shed -22.3% so far this year in total return terms. That just edges out 1962, when the index lost -22.2% over the first six months of the year.

    But for those with a traditional 60/40 type portfolio, the news doesn’t get any better, since 10yr Treasuries are currently on track for their worst H1 since 1788.

    Globally, bond and stock markets combined have lost a stunning $36 trillion dollars from their peak.

    It’s not all bad news, and those readers looking for some positives may be comforted to learn that the 5 worst H1 performances for the S&P 500 before this year, all saw very good H2 performance.

    Indeed, on 4 of those 5 occasions, the index went on to gain at least +17%, with the other seeing a +10% gain.  In order of H1 declines, we saw:

    • 1932: H1 -45%, H2 +56%,
    • 1962: H1 -22%, H2 +17%,
    • 1970: H1 -19%, H2 +29%,
    • 1940: H1 -17%, H2 +10%,
    • 1939: H1 -15%, H2 +18%.

    Still, what happens in H2 is quite binary: if we don’t see a recession materialize over that period, Reid suggests that it might be tough for markets to continue to be as bearish as they have been, and a bounce back resembling history might be possible. However, it’s hard to see markets recovering if we see firm evidence of the recession.

    For what it’s worth, regular readers of the Deutsche Banker will know that he still favors 2023 as the starting point of the US recession (and bigger market falls) but even he now concedes – following Nomura’s forecast this weekend that the recession begins in late 2022 – that the risk of an earlier move is clearly building with declining financial conditions, and consumer and business confidence plummeting.

    The chart book has much more useful data and visualizations on asset performance, central banks still being behind the curve, the end of negative yields, a recession watch, as well as charts from Reid’s two recent big publications on asset performance in the 1970s, and the end of the ultra-low default world, all available to professional subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 06/21/2022 – 18:00

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