Today’s News 22nd June 2024

  • Geopolitics And Demand Growth Underpin Need For Commonsense Energy Policies
    Geopolitics And Demand Growth Underpin Need For Commonsense Energy Policies

    Authored by Guy Caruso via RealClearEnergy,

    The U.S. energy sector finds itself in a precarious position. Increasing geopolitical volatility and strong energy demand forecasts could spell trouble domestically in the future. The U.S. needs to stop hamstringing American energy companies and invest in the nation’s infrastructure, such as pipelines, processing, and production.

    If we have learned anything in the last two and a half years, it’s that the U.S.’ energy industry is not free from geopolitical chaos globally. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Houthi’s attacks in Yemen backed by Iran and turmoil in the Middle East have very real repercussions for the average American. We may not be as intensely intertwined with those realities as our European allies, but energy is a global market with implications for domestic prices, supply, and demand. While different events can affect prices at home, there are steps the administration can take to protect our energy sector.

    Encouraging oil exploration and production can help offset foreign risk factors. At a Senate hearing in early May, the acting deputy secretary of the Interior, Laura Daniels-Davis, said the department had just started preparing for the 2025 offshore oil and gas lease sales. Those plans often take at least 18 months to complete and often longer.

    Similarly, the pause on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports has had a chilling effect on investment in both the facilities, as well as upstream. The country has a plethora of resources under our feet, and we should utilize it. Natural gas significantly lowered U.S. emissions by 32% between 2005 and 2019 as the electricity mix shifts away from coal. The ban should be lifted so that the U.S. can expand its export footprint, thereby contributing to foreign nations’ emissions reduction. The move signals hostility to domestic producers and exporters have helped transition away from dirtier sources of energy. If the administration wants to move towards wind and solar, as well as electrify the economy, natural gas will play a vital role.

    Geopolitical uncertainty highlights the importance of insulating our energy security to the best of our ability. Though global oil markets could dictate pain at the pump for consumers, supporting domestic energy production and infrastructure now will pay dividends in the long term and smooth the transition to much lower greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, it seems the infrastructure in the states, such as our electrical grids, transmission lines and pipelines, lag behind growing energy demand. 

    A report this year from Grid Strategies titled “The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over,” shines a light on our possibly dark future. The report notes that the nationwide forecasts of electricity demand have shot up from 2.6% to 4.7% over the next five years, per 2023 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) filings. The significant jump is in part due to $630 billion in near-term investment in “large loads” such as industrial, manufacturing and data center facilities that will impact the grid. Increased demand for AI utilization will play an outsized role in electricity demand growth.

    The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) recently released its annual Summer Reliability Assessment, which examines and identifies areas of concern the for the North American bulk power system (BPS). This year, NERC found elevated risk in numerous areas, such as the independent system operator in New England, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) in Louisiana and Arkansas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), among others. NERC noted in its report that “fuel supply and delivery infrastructure must be capable of meeting the ramp rates of natural-gas-fired generators as they balance the system when wind and solar generation declines.” Prioritizing the transportation of fuel supplies to all regions of the U.S. will help grid operators maintain reliable service when renewables are inefficient due to weather or the time of day.

    For example, in the case of New England, Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) recently noted its CEO testified to ISO’s desperate need of pipeline capacity. In 2023, New England residents paid 31% more than the average for natural gas. Expanding pipeline capacity in the region would help decrease these costs sharply.

    Couple the significant load growth in the U.S. with increasing geopolitical uncertainty, and it is evident that the U.S. must immediately address our domestic energy sector with tried-and-true solutions. Boosting our exportation of LNG, constructing new pipelines, and encouraging the flow of capital into oil and gas can help insulate the country from foreign chaos and support the administration’s transition toward lower GHG emissions.

    Guy Caruso is a former administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and a Center for Strategic and International Studies senior adviser in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 23:40

  • Oven-Like Conditions Result In Over 1,000 Deaths During Hajj In Saudi Arabia
    Oven-Like Conditions Result In Over 1,000 Deaths During Hajj In Saudi Arabia

    We explained earlier that the Hajj is the final of the five pillars of Islam, and requires that every Muslim who is of adult age complete the religious pilgrimage to Mecca once in their lifetime, so long as they are financially and physically able. This means huge numbers descended on the city which is home to the shrine of the Kaaba in Saudi Arabia each year. More than 1.8 million people attended Hajj in 2023, approaching pre-pandemic levels. According to Saudi officials, they expect the figure to exceed the two million mark this year.

    Not only are the massive crowds a problem, but this year the Saudi city is under an excessive heat warning, with highs at times having reached between 110 and 115°F during the day, and 100°F even at night. This has resulted in what could be a record amount of heat injuries and deaths by the pilgrimage season’s end. On Monday the Saudi weather service recorded a temperature of 125 degrees Fahrenheit at Mecca’s Grand Mosque.

    100+ degree temps at night

    The AFP reported Thursday that deaths from heat-related causes has surpassed 1,000 people amid the extreme conditions.

    “The new deaths reported Thursday included 58 from Egypt, according to an Arab diplomat who provided a breakdown showing that of 658 Egyptians who passed away, 630 were unregistered pilgrims,” AFP writes. Indonesia also reported a high number of heat-related casualties.

    In total ten countries have reported 1,081 deaths so far during this annual pilgrimage season, the timing of which is determined by the lunar Islamic calendar. Last year there was a total of 313 deaths reported.

    While authorities are estimating that over two million people are present for the religious rites, this includes possibly a couple hundred thousands of ‘unauthorized’ pilgrims, who may not have access to the established amenities, including cooling or water stations, that registered pilgrims have.

    “This group was more vulnerable to the heat because, without official permits, they could not access air-conditioned spaces provided by Saudi authorities for the 1.8 million authorized pilgrims to cool down after hours of walking and praying outside,” writes AFP.

    Via AFP

    Last Sunday alone saw over 2,700 cases of heat exhaustion, the Saudi foreign ministry had earlier announced.

    Between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, the latter is the most serious, and includes a person’s temperature rising rapidly as the body can no longer regulate it, and the ability to sweat fails, resulting in an inability to cool down. Dizziness, vomiting, fainting, and mental confusion are signs of potential heat exhaustion leading to heat stroke.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 23:20

  • House Committee Forms Group To Tackle CCP's Role In Fentanyl Crisis
    House Committee Forms Group To Tackle CCP’s Role In Fentanyl Crisis

    Authored by Aaron Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A bipartisan working group to address China’s role in the fentanyl epidemic has been established by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

    A Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) chemist checks confiscated pills containing fentanyl at the DEA Northeast Regional Laboratory in New York City, on Oct. 8, 2019. (Don Emmert/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Fentanyl Policy Working Group, announced by the panel on June 20, will be in charge of creating legislation and raising public awareness through committee events to expose the CCP’s role in the fentanyl crisis in the United States and combat the threat.

    China has programs in place to reward companies with subsidies for exporting fentanyl and other drugs illegal under Chinese law to the United States. It is now abundantly clear that the CCP is not just turning a blind eye to the fentanyl crisis, it is causing it,” Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), the committee’s chairman, said in a press release.

    Mr. Moolenaar and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), the committee’s ranking Democrat member, announced the working group’s formation. Mr. Moolenaar said he formed the group “to determine what must be done to seek justice for the hundreds of thousands of victims and hold the CCP responsible for funneling this poison into American communities.”

    The group will start by focusing its work on an April report from the committee titled “The CCP Role in the Fentanyl Crisis,” which found that Beijing directly subsidizes fentanyl production and exports the deadly substance to the United States, causing hundreds of thousands of American deaths in an effort to weaken and undermine the country.

    “Fentanyl is the leading cause of death for people ages 18-45 in the United States, and we now know the Chinese Communist Party is the force behind that crisis,” Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) said. “From funding the manufacturing and export of illicit fentanyl precursor chemicals to holding ownership interest in companies tied to drug trafficking, the CCP is not only an active participant in the drug trade—they are directly incentivizing it,” he added.

    “While the CCP continues to economically enrich themselves at the expense of the health and safety of millions of Americans, it is imperative that the United States sends a clear message: the buck stops here.”

    The working group aims to “codify, strengthen, and impose sanctions on entities involved in the fentanyl trade” and implement trade and customs enforcement measures to curb fentanyl trafficking. It also seeks to address “close regulatory and enforcement gaps” exploited by Chinese money launderers and fentanyl traders.

    Mr. Newhouse and Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) will lead the working group, which includes Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), and Michelle Steel (R-Calif.).

    A proposal to tackle the fentanyl crisis in the United States is also included in the Countering Communist China Act, introduced by Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) in February. The legislation includes sanctioning of Chinese officials and entities responsible for the flow of the synthetic opioid into the country, and encourages Americans whose family members died of fentanyl overdoses to sue Chinese officials.

    CCP Tax Subsidies, Grants

    According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of estimated deaths caused by fentanyl overdoses reached nearly 75,000, or 200 every day, in 2023. The death toll is 24 times higher than in 2013 when 3,105 people died from the synthetic opioid. The bulk of the drugs responsible for those deaths are manufactured in Mexico using chemical precursors made in China.

    Though most of the chemicals in question are illegal in both the United States and China, the committee’s April report found that the CCP is offering massive tax subsidies and giving grants to companies engaged in the production and export of such drugs to the Americas. It also found that the CCP has ownership stakes in some companies linked to drug trafficking.

    While the Chinese regime has used its massive surveillance and censorship apparatus to prosecute and execute drug makers within China, it is actively contributing to the growth of those who sell their illicit goods overseas.

    Data from the Drug Enforcement Administration indicates that in 2017, fentanyl from China represented 97 percent of the fentanyl seized from international mail.

    The report also discovered that Chinese authorities consistently fail to prosecute manufacturers of fentanyl and its precursors. Instead of cooperating with U.S. law enforcement, Chinese security services have been accused of tipping off targets of American investigations.

    Andrew Thornebrooke contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 23:00

  • Disney Exposed? VP Admits On Hidden Camera That Company Refuses To Hire 'White Males'
    Disney Exposed? VP Admits On Hidden Camera That Company Refuses To Hire ‘White Males’

    For almost a decade Disney has been on a Diveristy, Equity and Inclusion induced spiral into clown world (along with a number of major entertainment and media companies).  The shift by corporations towards promoting ideological propaganda instead of chasing profits started out subtle and has quickly escalated into a crescendo of absurdity. 

    Disney has become the public focus of the wokification of media for a number of reasons including the conglomerate’s massive size and global reach, but more than anything else, it used to be family favored company.  When an organization makes the virtues of family and childhood innocence its brand, any slide into degeneracy or indoctrination is going to be amplified and scrutinized.

    In the past, most companies sought to remain neutral (at least in public) when it came to political affiliations and aspirations.  However, this principle has also been thrown out the window in recent years with Disney being one of the worst perpetrators of open political interference and influence; they even tried to go to war with the highly conservative state of Florida a couple years ago and that didn’t work out too well for them.

    Disney’s political allegiances are clearly to the far-left. One might even argue that without companies like Disney the woke movement wouldn’t exist.  Part of this movement is the demonization of traditional western values, structures and specifically the men who built them.  That is to say, the “white man” is now persona non grata.  

    Every Marxist/Communist movement needs a great enemy, a monolithic monster to focus the ire of their followers and give them a justification for the destruction of the target society.  For the woke devout, white males are the ultimate villain that needs to be diminished and chained down for the “safety” of everyone else.  In other words, the anti-white male movement is an integral part of the woke movement.  The two things cannot be separated.

    It has long been suspected that woke corporations have been actively discriminating against white males in the name of DEI.  Much like Affirmative Action, DEI initiatives have led companies to reject better qualified candidates for employment in favor of less qualified or completely unqualified diversity hires.  The quality of products, especially when it comes to the entertainment industry, is clearly in decline.  

    Disney and others have consistently denied that they have an ongoing policy of white discrimination or male discrimination.  But now it appears this claim has been proven false.

    A Disney Senior VP, Michael Giordano, was recently caught on camera by an undercover journalist working with James O Keefe alleging that Disney actively and blatantly discriminates against white men when it comes to every area of company operations.  This includes their hiring habits for TV and film productions as well as internal company promotions.  Disney is seeking out that perfect pie chart of ethnicity, disability and sexuality to become a church of woke, sacrificing merit and success for ideological purity.

    To be fair to Michael Giordano, he seems to be a victim in this situation as he notes that he is also a white male and is more likely to be passed up for promotion because of his skin color.  He mentions, sadly, that Disney also discriminates against people with mixed ethnic backgrounds if their skin is “too white.”  They can’t just be the part genetically, they have to look the part.  The revelations he puts forward are confirmation of a DEI conspiracy that many have accused Disney of participating in.   

    These actions and more have inspired an army of commentators that have put Disney under a microscope, leading to increasing box office failures, dwindling streaming service numbers and a host of losing legal battles.  When Disney went woke they declared war on western culture.  It’s no surprise that they are suffering defeat after defeat as western culture fights back. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 22:40

  • You Will Be Tagged… And You Will Love It
    You Will Be Tagged… And You Will Love It

    Authored by Riley Waggaman via Off-Guardian.org,

    As expected, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was the hottest anti-globalist multipolar traditional RETVRN values conference of 2024 – possibly of all-time.

    The unipolar world suffered non-stop humiliations during this mind-blowing freedom event. For example, Moscow Region governor Andrei Vorobyov made an incredible BRICS announcement during a titillating panel discussion about the joys of biometrics, causing the dollar to lose 50% of its value against the gold-backed ruble:

    Biometrics is a tool that gives people better quality and more convenience in certain procedures, keeping them neat and tidy. You don’t need any papers or passports—that will all be in the past. Resisting it, in my opinion, is absurd.

    The governor of Russia’s second-most-populated region, explaining the inevitable convenience of biometrics—which will replace archaic “papers” and “passports”.

    Nothing is being hidden. They’re speaking very frankly. It’s all out there, in the open.

    There is even a helpful “recap” of the panel discussion published by SPIEF. Behold the “highlights”:

    source: https://forumspb.com/

    “I am for biometrics … Everything I do is based on biometrics, everything is based on fingerprints, because I’m took lazy to carry cards with me and it’s much more convenient to just [login/pass/go] through my face,” pontificated an expert panelist.

    Was the BRICS Multipolar Happy Order incapable of finding a single panelist who had reservations about turning eyeballs into IDs? Igor Ashmanov, a member of the Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights, had to shout his objections from the bleachers because they wouldn’t let his dirty anti-biometric ideas onstage:

    source: Telegram

    Friend of the blog Simplicius posted a Twitter-summary of Igor’s very rude unipolar objections to biometrics:

    This guy sounds like Edward Slavsquat. Great minds think alike.

    “Yes, but Russians like biometrics, the most convenient of all forms for identification, which will replace ‘papers’ and ‘passports’,” you might be saying to yourself for some weird and tragic reason.

    Take the wheel, nakanune.ru:

    People in Russia are narrow-minded and have not yet realized how beautiful, convenient and progressive biometrics are. Therefore, whether they want it or not, the authorities will introduce it wherever possible. Approximately the same reasoning (without these words, but with this meaning) was heard at SPIEF in the section devoted to biometrics. Nakanune.RU provides characteristic statements about the attitude of business towards people.

    At first, the presenter of the Russia 24 channel, Maria Kudryavtseva, advertised biometrics, showing how she enters the Unified Biometric System using her face and even the greeting “Hello, Maria!” appears there, which she enthusiastically shows to the audience.

    At the same time, there was a feeling of a white gentleman showing “digital beads” to the local natives. And the whole “discussion” came down to one thing—intrusive advertising. It is characteristic that the governor of the Moscow region Andrei Vorobyov, who is a public servant, but showed himself to be a business lobbyist, was also involved in this.

    As with artificial intelligence in healthcare , the panel included only proponents of biometrics. Those who might object were simply not invited. Those present were mainly engaged in advertising. Old people do not understand the digital world, but young people were already born with a gadget in their hand, they are very flexible, progressive, digital. They understand how convenient, cool and fast it is. In general, the conversation became very revealing in its vacuity and disregard for the position of citizens.

    The first question to the speakers was provocative: is society ready to use biometrics? That is, don’t people want it, does the country need it, not what it will give, not what the risks are—but is society ready, as if the issue has been fundamentally resolved. Which is obscene. Let us recall that according to a 2023 survey , a third of Russians have a positive attitude towards taking biometrics, but almost half are opposed—48%.

    […]

    Vorobiev spoke as if he had gone back in time a hundred years ago and was telling backward people of the past about the wonders of the technology of the future. Here are just a few quotes.

    “You don’t need a paper or a passport, all this will be a thing of the past, it’s absurd to resist it. We all already use biometrics, including children at school… It’s convenient, you don’t need to twist anything, you just look and that’s it,” said Vorobiev. […]

    It is characteristic that one of the main experts in the field of artificial intelligence in the country, a member of the Human Rights Council, Igor Ashmanov, was not invited to the section, who was forced to make remarks from the audience several times, and the section participants politely drew attention to the fact that someone might disagree. So, when Lebedev said that all people are for biometrics, he objected that this was not true. And when they started talking about different points of view, he very briefly but accurately described what was happening.

    “You haven’t invited anyone to the presidium, you’re all blowing the same tune! As a member of the Presidential Human Rights Council, I hear completely obscene advertising, and nothing more!” said Ashmanov.

    What’s wrong with this freak?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 22:20

  • Housing Downturn in Austin, Texas Is "Remarkable" As Inventory Spikes To Record High
    Housing Downturn in Austin, Texas Is “Remarkable” As Inventory Spikes To Record High

    Our latest housing note showed May’s US existing home sales data slumped for the third consecutive month while prices hit a record high. This highlights the ongoing affordability crisis in the housing market, with a 30-year mortgage interest rate of around 7%. However, there is evidence that home buyers might soon find some relief as inventories nationwide increase.

    Let’s jump right into our latest housing note from Friday:

    The supply of homes on the market increased 18.5% from the same month last year to 1.28 million, but it’s still well below the level seen before the pandemic when mortgage rates were much lower.

    “Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun wrote in a statement. 

    According to Bloomberg data, the number of corporate media news stories featuring “housing inventory” has surged this month to a record high of 1,232, with data going back to 2014. This may suggest that inventory is coming online in certain parts of the country. 

    A simple Google News search for “housing inventory” shows several stories detailing rising inventory trends city by city. 

    Drilling down into the inventory story, Nick Gerli, CEO and Founder of real estate analytics firm Reventure Consulting, pointed out Austin, Texas’ inventory has “now spiked to the highest level on record.” 

    Gerli said, “Values down nearly 20% already and could have another 15% decline to go.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Austin is remarkable because only two years ago, most housing analysts believed this market wouldn’t crash. They believed the Kool-Aid of “everyone is moving to Austin.” It’s becoming the Silicon Valley, etc. But it was always obvious that this market would crash,” he said. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Gerli continued, “Back in May 2022, Austin’s Housing Market hit a 50% overvaluation rate. Typical home value of $556k v fair home value of $365k based on local incomes. Locals were completely priced out of the market. And once the inevitable slowdown in inbound migration came, the market would obviously correct.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    He said home prices in the metro area have dropped about 20% over the past two years, and further downside is expected. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    More pain to come. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This is important. 

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    “Note that if a housing market is overvalued, it isn’t guaranteed to crash,” he said, adding, To facilitate big declines in prices, there needs to be a corresponding spike in inventory and price cuts. As well as selling pressure from owners.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Gerli concluded, “If those things don’t happen, a market can stay overvalued, and eventually become fairly valued through income growth.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 22:00

  • Why Has China Purchased Farmland Near 19 Different Military Bases Inside The US?
    Why Has China Purchased Farmland Near 19 Different Military Bases Inside The US?

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    The Chinese aren’t exactly being subtle about what they are trying to do.  Today, they own more than 300,000 acres of farmland inside the United States, and they have been specifically targeting areas that are located near important military bases.  As you will see below, the Chinese now own farmland very close to 19 different U.S. military bases.  How in the world could our leaders have allowed this to happen?  Foreign adversaries should not be allowed to purchase farmland at all, and yet somehow they have been able to acquire land that is ideal for spying on our military bases over and over again. 

    In fact, the New York Post has “identified 19 bases across the US from Florida to Hawaii which are in close proximity to land bought up by Chinese entities”…

    China has been buying up strategically placed farmland next to military installations across the US, raising national security fears over potential espionage or even sabotage.

    The Post has identified 19 bases across the US from Florida to Hawaii which are in close proximity to land bought up by Chinese entities and could be exploited by spies working for the communist nation.

    When I read stuff like that, it makes me want to tear my hair out.

    Are the people that are in charge of our national security really this incompetent?

    According to the New York Post, the list includes some of our “most strategically important bases”

    They include some of the military’s most strategically important bases: Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg) in Fayetteville, North Carolina; Fort Cavazos (formerly Fort Hood) in Killeen, Texas; Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton in San Diego, California, and MacDill air force base in Tampa, Florida.

    We know that the Chinese are very interested in our military bases.

    Do you remember the Chinese spy balloon that was allowed to fly over our country?

    The path that it took allowed it to gather intelligence on Malmstrom Air Force Base, which is where some of our key nuclear assets are located.

    And the Wall Street Journal has reported that Chinese nationals have been caught accessing “military bases and other sensitive sites” inside the United States close to 100 times…

    Chinese nationals, sometimes posing as tourists, have accessed military bases and other sensitive sites in the U.S. as many as 100 times in recent years, according to U.S. officials, who describe the incidents as a potential espionage threat.

    The Defense Department, FBI and other agencies held a review last year to try to limit these incidents, which involve people whom officials have dubbed gate-crashers because of their attempts—either by accident or intentionally—to get onto U.S. military bases and other installations without proper authorization. They range from Chinese nationals found crossing into a U.S. missile range in New Mexico to what appeared to be scuba divers swimming in murky waters near a U.S. government rocket-launch site in Florida.

    Look, everyone knows that the Chinese are trying to spy on us.

    That isn’t a big secret.

    Just don’t make it easy for them.

    At the same time all of this spying is going on, there has been an unprecedented surge in Chinese migrants coming across the southern border…

    US border officials said they detained 37,000 Chinese migrants attempting to cross the border in 2023, or 10 times the number detained in the year before. The true number of those attempting to cross the border is likely higher.

    The flow of Chinese migrants continued to surge in 2024, with CBS reporting in February that it observed 600 migrants, many of whom were Chinese, entering the US in a single day.

    The House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability said in May that the number of Chinese nationals encountered by authorities at the US border in March had jumped 8,000% from the same period in 2021.

    Most of the Chinese migrants that are coming across the southern border are men of military age, and they commonly travel to the border in groups.

    Suspiciously, these groups of military age Chinese men are often decked out in matching equipment.

    But they are let into the country anyway, because that is what our leaders have decided to do.

    So now we have tens of thousands of military age “Chinese migrants” that are running around inside our country, and we have no idea where they are or what they are doing.

    The Chinese are preparing to win a war, and we are preparing to lose one.

    At this point, everyone realizes that the Chinese are going to invade Taiwan eventually.  In fact, the Daily Mail ran a big story about the coming invasion this week

    Xi Jinping views Taiwan as a breakaway Chinese province and has vowed to ‘reunify’ it with the mainland, by force if necessary.

    He is in the midst of a huge military buildup, regularly sending fighter jets and warships to harass Taiwan, and staging menacing war games in the area.

    When Taiwan is invaded, the U.S. military will be expected to intervene, and then we will be at war with China

    Taiwan views itself as independent of Beijing and is allied to America – a legacy that stretches back to the Chinese Civil War 75 years ago.

    America supplies the islands with weapons and is expected to go to war to defend them if they are attacked.

    By most estimates, a war over Taiwan would be one of the biggest, bloodiest, and most expensive in history.

    Most people don’t realize this, but China and the Philippines are also on the verge of military conflict.  Recently, there was a very alarming clash in the South China Sea that resulted in one Filipino soldier losing a thumb

    Filipino soldiers had to defend themselves with bare hands against Chinese coast guard armed with swords and knives, according to the Philippines.

    General Romeo Brawner, the Philippines’ top military commander, criticized China for what he described as “reckless and aggressive” behavior while the Philippines navy and coast guard were delivering supplies to Filipino soldiers in the disputed South China Sea on Monday.

    Chinese coast guard personnel rammed their vessels into boats belonging to the Philippines, and boarded and attacked them, the BBC reported Brawner as saying, leaving some injured and one soldier having lost a thumb.

    The Chinese have become extremely aggressive, and it is just a matter of time before we are at war with them.

    But even though many of our leaders publicly talk about the coming war, we are still allowing the Chinese to take advantage of us in unthinkable ways.

    We should have never allowed the Chinese to purchase large tracts of farmland near 19 of our most important military bases.

    Unfortunately, they are there now, and that will give them a major advantage when war finally erupts.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack  newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 21:40

  • 'Total Lawlessness' & Looting Has Made Gaza Aid Delivery Nearly Impossible: UN Chief
    ‘Total Lawlessness’ & Looting Has Made Gaza Aid Delivery Nearly Impossible: UN Chief

    “On the Gazan side of the Kerem Shalom Crossing, where over 1,000 trucks are awaiting collection and distribution… there are hundreds of aid pallets awaiting collection and distribution by the UN aid agencies,” Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has announced.

    For months, there have been two primary threats to aid convoys entering the Gaza Strip. First, on their way in, trucks carrying vital humanitarian supplies often come under attack by Israeli settlers. Second, once convoys are inside the Strip, they face the potential of being swarmed and coming under attack by desperate Palestinians who rip the supplies away before they arrive at intended drop-off points.

    AP: Palestinians loot a humanitarian aid truck as it crosses into the Gaza Strip in Rafah, December 17, 2023.

    Also, in many cases even population enclaves in the Strip which are not currently witnessing direct battles are in desperation and civil chaos amid fuel, food, and medicine shortages – given there is no overall governing authority.

    UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called the situation one of “total lawlessness” and decried that it has led to wide-spread looting at aid storehouses.

    “The situation in Gaza became a situation of total lawlessness. Most of the trucks with humanitarian aid inside Gaza are now looted because this is a war that is different from any other one,” Guterres said a news conference.

    He said this is large-part due to the nature of this conflict, where Israel has not occupied and managed any single territory with enough permanence to bring any level of stability, also amid a state of internecine attacks and continued bombings.

    Guterres further characterized “total chaos in Gaza” in which there is “no authority in most of the territory,” as it remains that “Israel does not even allow the so-called blue police to escort our (UN) convoys, because it’s a local police linked to local administration.”

    This has made it nearly impossible to run a legitimate and timely system of aid delivery and distribution, given that for this to work there must be minimum rule of law and order.

    “The problem is not only to bring things to Gaza,” he said, after explaining that once inside the shipments are an easy target for looting. “That’s why a cease-fire is so necessary to … properly organize and implement a plan,” he stressed.

    The past months have witnessed dangerous scenes from Gaza like the following:

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    Below are some of the latest breaking developments via Al Jazeera:

    • At least 25 killed, 50 wounded in Israeli attack on tents of displaced people in Mawasi, says Palestinian Health Ministry.
    • Israeli tanks push deeper into western Rafah in south Gaza, firing shells at displaced people’s tents, with one armoured vehicle blown up by a Hamas-planted improvised explosive device.
    • The White House has described Benjamin Netanyahu’s criticism of the suspension of one US weapons delivery to Israel as “vexing” and “disappointing” as the public rift between the two allies intensifies.
    • Israeli forces have carried out deadly air attacks across Gaza over the past 24 hours, including a strike on a home that has killed eight people in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood.
    • United Nations experts have warned arms manufacturers against transferring weapons to Israel, saying they could be complicit in violations of international law carried out in Gaza.
    • At least 37,431 people have been killed and 85,653 wounded in Israel’s war on Gaza since October 7. The death toll in Israel from the Hamas-led attacks stands at 1,139, with dozens of people still held captive in Gaza.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 21:20

  • Supreme Court Broadens Use Of Expert Testimony Against Accused Criminals
    Supreme Court Broadens Use Of Expert Testimony Against Accused Criminals

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Supreme Court on June 20 sided with the government in a case centering on expert testimony in criminal trials.

    Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas poses for an official portrait at the East Conference Room of the Supreme Court building in Washington on Oct. 7, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    In a 6–3 ruling, the justices said that experts can testify to how “most people” in a group to which a defendant belongs think, upholding a lower court ruling.

    The case was brought by Delilah Diaz, a U.S. citizen who was stopped at the U.S.-Mexico border. Officers found nearly 28 kilograms of drugs hidden in the door panels of the car she was driving, and she was charged with violating a law that requires showing a defendant “knowingly” transported drugs.

    Ms. Diaz said her boyfriend used her by luring her to Mexico, then loaning her a car to return to the United States that was, unbeknownst to her, filled with drugs.

    The government called Andrew Flood, a special agent, to testify that drug traffickers typically don’t give large quantities of drugs to people unless the people know they are transporting the drugs.

    “Generally, it’s a risk of your—your cargo not making it to the new market; not knowing where it’s going; not being able to retrieve it at the ending point, at your point B. So there’s a risk of not delivering your product and, therefore, you’re not going to make any money,” he testified.

    Mr. Flood also said that there were cases where drug traffickers placed drugs in vehicles without the drivers knowing, but that none of those known “schemes” matched the circumstances of Ms. Diaz.

    Challenging Testimony

    Ms. Diaz brought up a federal rule known as Rule 704(b) that states expert witnesses “must not state an opinion about whether the defendant did or did not have a mental state or condition that constitutes an element of the crime charged or of a defense.” But a district judge ruled that Mr. Flood could tell jurors about whether couriers generally knew they were transporting drugs. At trial, he testified to that effect. The jury found Ms. Diaz guilty.

    Ms. Diaz appealed, but a federal appeals court also rejected her arguments against the testimony.

    Lawyers for Ms. Diaz had written in a filing to the Supreme Court that the plain text of the rule “forecloses limiting its reach to an ‘explicit opinion’ regarding the defendant’s knowledge.” Generalizing about most drug carriers was an improper workaround of the rule, they said.

    “This is true of many generalizations about a class of individuals,” they wrote. “Say a patient asks his therapist whether he is depressed and she responds, ‘People do not usually have trouble getting out of bed in the morning unless they are depressed.’ She has clearly expressed an ‘opinion about’ her patient’s mental state. Likewise for a high-school teacher who, when asked whether one of her students knew that he was not supposed to get outside help on a take-home exam, responds, ‘High-school seniors generally know the honor code.’”

    In the Supreme Court ruling siding against Ms. Diaz, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote that “because the expert witness did not state an opinion about whether petitioner herself had a particular mental state, we conclude that the testimony did not violate Rule 704(b).”

    Agent Flood instead testified about the knowledge of most drug couriers,” he added later. “Specifically, he explained that ‘in most circumstances, the driver knows they are hired … to take the drugs from point A to point B.’ That opinion does not necessarily describe Diaz’s mental state. After all, Diaz may or may not be like most drug couriers.”

    Defense Arguments

    Defense lawyers, during cross-examination of the agent, also established that Mr. Flood was not involved in Ms. Diaz’s case and that there had been cases before involving people carrying drugs without their knowledge.

    “The jury was thus well aware that unknowing couriers exist and that there was evidence to suggest Diaz could be one of them. It simply concluded that the evidence as a whole pointed to a different conclusion: that Diaz knowingly transported the drugs. The jury alone drew that conclusion,” Justice Thomas said.

    Justice Thomas was joined by Justices John Roberts, Samuel Alito, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.

    Justice Neil Gorsuch said in a dissent that the majority was “carv[ing] a new path” around the federal rule.

    The ruling means “prosecutors can now put an expert on the stand—someone who apparently has the convenient ability to read minds—and let him hold forth on what ’most‘ people like the defendant think when they commit a legally proscribed act,” he wrote. “Then, the government need do no more than urge the jury to find that the defendant is like ’most’ people and convict. What authority exists for allowing that kind of charade in federal criminal trials is anybody’s guess, but certainly it cannot be found in Rule 704.”

    Justice Gorsuch was joined his dissent by Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 21:00

  • Beijing-Hosted Ukraine Peace Conference? Why Not…
    Beijing-Hosted Ukraine Peace Conference? Why Not…

    China shunned the Switzerland-hosted peace talks attended by some 90 countries and which happened last week, however, the government of Xi Jinping has urgently called for an international peace summit hosted by Beijing. China’s rationale for skipping the Swiss summit was that the endeavor was futile without Russia’s presence.

    Geng Shuang, China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, recently told the United Nations Security Council in New York, “China calls on the parties to the conflict to demonstrate political will, come together, and start peace talks as soon as possible to achieve a ceasefire and halt military actions.”

    Geng ultimately put forth China as a better facilitator and mediator due to its “objectivity and impartiality” while at the same time accusing Washington of “spreading the lie that China has supported Russia in its war efforts”. Practically speaking, it is much more likely that Putin would send representatives to Beijing rather than Switzerland or a Western European nation for a summit.

    “This is unacceptable … It is an attempt to divert people’s attention from the conflict and create differences,” he said further. The Chinese diplomat described that China “urges the US to stop using the Ukraine issue as an excuse to smear China and to impose unilateral sanctions and unreasonable suppression on Chinese companies.”

    Indeed there was this interesting moment earlier this month where President Biden showed himself to be even more hawkish on the issue than Zelensky himself, despite the Ukrainian leader being in the thick of war…

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    Beijing’s appeal for the world to look to China if it hopes to achieve peace in Ukraine is also interesting given that it provides Biden with an “out” of sorts ahead of what’s sure to be a tight election in November.

    Achieving negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, though it seems as distant as ever (given especially the Biden admin’s own uncompromising pro-Kiev policy), would without doubt be a political ‘win’ for Biden at a moment the Gaza war also shows no signs of stopping.

    But the US is unlikely to get on board with this and will instead stick with the simple China equals ‘bad guy/bad actor’ narrative instead of a path of robust diplomacy and a pragmatic path forward. This despite the Zelensky government having for months urged that China play a key role in persuading Russia toward peace.

    Putin himself days ago set forth his key conditions for ending the war… (it would end “this very minute” he said): that Ukraine forces withdraw from the four annexed territories, and that Kiev give up its aspirations to join the NATO alliance. 

    But in the meantime all the White House can do is continue to verbally chide China and Russia (and with the occasional sanctions). But from Beijing’s perspective, whether Trump gets into the top office or Biden stays, it’s basically two sides of the same coin. “China Has No Favorite in Biden-Trump Race, US Intelligence Finds,” Bloomberg reported in a Thursday headline.

    “US spies believe China’s leaders see little or no upside to the looming electoral showdown between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump,” the report said.

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    “Ahead of next week’s first debate of the presidential campaign, US intelligence agencies assess that China has no clear preference between the two candidates, according to American officials, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public assessments,” Bloomberg wrote.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 20:40

  • Washington Approves Another $360 Million Arms Sale To Taiwan
    Washington Approves Another $360 Million Arms Sale To Taiwan

    Authored by Connor Freeman via AntiWar.com,

    The State Department said earlier this week that it has green-lit a $360 million arms sale to Taipei, including hundreds of armed drones, missile equipment, and other support material. China views Taiwan as part of its territory, and while it prefers to reclaim the de facto independent island peacefully, it has not ruled out using force if its “red lines” are crossed.

    The latest sale comprises 291 Altius-600M systems, which are drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), armed with warheads. The State Department release notes 720 Switchblade drones, described as “extended-range loitering munitions,” are also included with the package.

    Reuters: China has called recent drills around Taiwan a “strong punishment” for “separatist acts”

    The statement went on to claim that the sale “serves U.S. national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability.” Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te thanked Washington for the new hardware, insisting they will increase regional stability. “In the future, we will continue to strengthen Taiwan’s national defense strength, whether through … military purchases or our own efforts,” he said.

    Wednesday’s announcement follows reports this week that Chinese President Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year that he believes the hawkish US posture in the region and its increased military support for the island constitute an attempt to provoke an invasion by Beijing.

    Earlier this month, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, told Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin he plans to wage a “hellscape” drone war, launching thousands of UAVs, drone boats, and unmanned submarines against China if it attacks the island. “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” he threatened. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”

    His predecessor, Admiral John Aquilino, said last year that he was instructed by Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and President Joe Biden to prepare for a direct war with China over the self-ruled island. “What I can tell you is the secretary and the president have tasked me with two missions. The first is to prevent this conflict. And then the second one is if I fail at Mission One to be ready and prepared to fight and win… the United States military is manned, trained, equipped, postured and ready to execute both of those missions,” the commander proclaimed.

    This was yet another confirmation that the White House has discarded the decades-old policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding what role the US would play in the event of a cross-strait war. Since taking office, Biden had made several ostensible “gaffes” suggesting the US, in fact, has a defense commitment with the island and that American men and women would be deployed to fight and die to protect its de facto independence. Last year, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and the then-top Asia official on the National Security Council, Kurt Campbell, reiterated that the policy was changed from ambiguity to strategic clarity, or an overt war footing.

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    Since last year, in another about-face on long-standing US policies regarding the island, the US has provided Taipei with billions in military aid, angering Beijing. US officials say their goal is to convert the island into a “giant weapons depot.” A war over Taiwan with direct US intervention would likely turn nuclear. China has the ability to inflict severe damage to US security if such a fight were to take place, including strikes with strategic weapons across the continental United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 20:20

  • Say Their Names: Young American Women Are Being Raped & Murdered By Illegal Aliens
    Say Their Names: Young American Women Are Being Raped & Murdered By Illegal Aliens

    Fox News’ Bill Melugin shared with X users several headlines from this week alone that shows illegal aliens committing heinous acts of rape and murder against young American women. 

    On Thursday, Melugin said here are three headlines since the weekend:

    • Salvadoran illegal alien charged w/ rape & murder of Rachel Morin. Entered as gotaway last year.

    • Ecuadorian illegal alien charged w/ rape & kidnapping of 13-year-old girl in NYC. Caught & released in 2021.

    • Two Venezuelan illegal aliens charged w/ murdering 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray in Houston. Both caught and released at the border this year.

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    Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who has endorsed former President Donald Trump, wrote on X, “Americans are dying because Joe Biden and Alejandro Mayorkas are importing unvetted criminals every single day.”

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    This is absolutely horrible, and there’s absolutely zero accountability from radical leftists in the White House. 

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    Pretty much. 

    This is heartbreaking. 

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    The Biden administration is turning a blind eye to the tragic deaths of these young women. They’re prioritizing Ukraine and illegal aliens and installing woke Marxism across government agencies. Law-abiding citizens are awakening to this disturbing reality.

    Meanwhile, a woke MSNBC host and pro-Hamas Rep. Pramila Jayapal both agree that Fox News’ reporting of an illegal alien raping a young girl is “fear-mongering.” 

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    What in the actual F…

    Perhaps Project Veritas revealed the actual goal of open southern borders in a new undercover video. 

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    The deaths of young American women at the hands of illegal aliens should never be happening. This is the direct result of disastrous open border policies pushed by radical leftists in the White House who are willing and completely fine with inflicting great pain on Americans so they can continue installing their leftist agenda.

    This is insanity.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 20:00

  • Nearly Half Of US EV Drivers Consider Switching Back To Gas Vehicles: McKinsey Study
    Nearly Half Of US EV Drivers Consider Switching Back To Gas Vehicles: McKinsey Study

    Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More electric vehicle drivers are thinking about switching back to internal combustion engine automobiles, according to new findings from the 2024 McKinsey & Co. Mobility Consumer Global Survey.

    A Volkswagen electric car is parked in front of a charging station in Salzgitter, north-central Germany, on May 18, 2022. (John Macdougall/AFP via Getty Images)

    Forty-six percent of EV owners surveyed in the United States say they will likely return to driving gas-powered vehicles.

    Globally, the survey of 30,000 respondents in 15 countries found that more than one-quarter (29 percent) of EV owners are likely to go back to driving gas-powered cars.

    Australia topped the list with 49 percent confirming they want to return to driving behind the wheel of an gas-powered automobile, the study found.

    The lack of public charging infrastructure was the chief reason respondents wanted to switch back to gas-powered vehicles, with 35 percent saying it is “not yet good enough for me.”

    Thirty-four percent noted that the total costs of EV ownership were “too high.”

    The list of reasons for being disappointed in electric cars rounded out with being unable to charge at home (24 percent), too much worry and stress about charging (21 percent), changing mobility requirements (16 percent), and not enjoying the driving experience (13 percent).

    Overall, 21 percent of global respondents said they would never want to switch to an electric vehicle, unchanged from 2022. By comparison, 18 percent confirmed their next automobile will be an EV, up from 16 percent in 2022.

    Looking ahead to the next 10 years, 29 percent want to replace their automobile with other forms of transportation. They cited expensive car ownership costs, a desire to live a more sustainable lifestyle, and remote work.

    Other studies have found similar trends in the United States.

    According to the BloombergNEF 2024 Electric Vehicle Outlook, there has been growing consumer consternation surrounding the EV market.

    “In the U.S., EV market jitters inflamed by the upcoming presidential election helped slow down adoption this year, and by 2027 only 29 percent of cars sold in the country [will be] electric,” the report stated as concerns surrounding driving range, price, battery lifespan, and unreliable public charging become ubiquitous across the marketplace.

    America’s EV Infrastructure

    The White House aims to have 56 percent of all new vehicle sales be electric by 2032.

    In order to boost EVs across the country, President Joe Biden announced in March the strictest regulation on vehicle emissions to nudge the auto sector’s transition to electric cars.

    Nissan and Volkswagen electric cars sit parked at a Charge Point EV charging station in Corte Madera, Calif., on July 28, 2023. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    President Biden’s recent measure plans to limit the annual amount of pollution allowed from car exhausts. Automakers that fail to meet these new standards will endure tough penalties.

    But while the United States has been facilitating a market of more EV sales, the infrastructure has been lacking.

    In the landmark 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, lawmakers approved $7.5 billion to construct 500,000 public charging stations for electric cars nationwide. The Inflation Reduction Act also boosts tax credits for EVs and charger installations.

    To date, only eight public EV-charging stations have been deployed, receiving rebukes from both sides of the aisle.

    That is pathetic. We’re now three years into this. That is a vast administrative failure,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) at a June 5 Senate Environment and Public Works (EPW) committee hearing. “Something is terribly wrong and it needs to be fixed.”

    Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg says the administration plans to build 500,000 chargers by 2030.

    “Now, in order to do a charger, it’s more than just plugging a small device into the ground,” Mr. Buttigieg told CBS’s “Face the Nation” last month. “There’s utility work, and this is also really a new category of federal investment. But we’ve been working with each of the 50 states.”

    When host Margaret Brennan asked why only seven or eight chargers had been built, he reiterated that a half-million chargers would be built in the next six years.

    “And the very first handful of chargers are now already being physically built,” the secretary added.

    Earlier this month, the Biden administration announced an extra $1.3 billion in funding to expand EV charging infrastructure in urban and rural communities.

    “Doubling down on electrification is more important than ever to our economic prosperity and national security,” said Joint Office Executive Director Gabe Klein in a statement. “With the rest of the world pushing down on the accelerator; we are moving fast to position the United States as the global leader in the future that everyone is racing toward.”

    State of the US EV Market

    Over the last year, U.S. consumer demand for EVs has stalled, forcing automakers like General Motors, Ford Motor, and Volkswagen to scale back or postpone their EV plans.

    But while motorists’ appetites for electric cars have faded, EV prices have been falling, particularly for used ones.

    Data from iSeeCars show that used EV prices were, on average, 8 percent lower than the average price for a used gas-powered car.

    “There’s no denying the crash in used electric vehicle values over the past year,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars. “We’ve watched EVs [sic] prices fall between 30 and 40 percent since June of last year, while the average gas car’s price has dropped by just 3 to 7 percent in that same timeframe.”

    In January, Hertz revealed that it was selling off 20,000 EVs, representing about one-third of its entire EV fleet. The car rental company was even selling used Teslas at an average price of $25,000.

    The decision came three years after announcing the largest EV rental fleet in North America.

    New Electric Cars

    Edmunds figures highlight that the cheapest new electric cars today are the 2024 Nissan Leaf ($28,140), 2024 Mini Electric Hardtop ($30,900), and 2024 Tesla Model 3 ($38,990).

    EV market conditions are expected to stabilize in the next couple of years.

    According to S&P Global Ratings, modest demand growth will range between 1 percent and 2 percent from 2024 to 2026.

    “Softer sales growth in March (which equated to an annual sales rate of 15.5 million units) is consistent with our forecasts, which incorporate a delayed impact on consumer purchasing power from the contiguous macroeconomic shocks of high vehicle prices, ongoing inflation, and higher interest rates for longer,” the firm stated in an April 2024 report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 19:40

  • Putin Issues Ominous Nuclear Triad Expansion Warning
    Putin Issues Ominous Nuclear Triad Expansion Warning

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has wrapped up his Asia tour which included stops in North Korea and Vietnam. He had inked dozens of agreements with both countries, but most notable was the defense pact with Kim Jong Un, which we previously detailed

    On the geopolitical and security ties front, and closely watched by the West, were a couple of ominous warnings Putin issued at a closing press conference in Hanoi on Thursday. He described that Russia might change its nuclear deterrence policy.

    Not not only have the last months witnessed no shortage of nuclear threats and saber-rattling between Moscow and NATO, but some US lawmakers have gone so far as to describe a “Cuban missile crisis in space” following claims Russia is intent on launching a nuclear space weapon into orbit.

    As it stands, Russian nuclear doctrine is based on deploying nukes only in the scenario that the Russian home land comes under existential threat (much like other nuclear armed countries). But below is the press release summarizing Putin’s words issued by Sputnik:

    Russia may consider amending nuclear deterrence policy, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned. According to Putin, this matter became a subject of debate in light of the recent discussions in the world on lowering the threshold of nuclear weapon use.

    At the same time, the Russian president noted that Russia has no need an ability to launch a preemptive nuclear strike.

    In follow-up, Putin later met with graduates of the country’s military universities at the Kremlin upon his return to Russia from his Asia trip. In the fresh address, he said he will order a further development of the nuclear triad – which is a reference to the three-fold strategic defense involving intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistics missiles, and bomber aircraft.

    “We plan to further develop the nuclear triad as a guarantee of strategic deterrence and maintaining the balance of power in the world,” he said. The only other countries to possess a nuclear triad as part of their national defense include the United States, China, and India. 

    To be expected, he spoke somewhat vaguely about the potential changes to come… “Certainly, we will strengthen our potential, enhance the combat capabilities of all branches and types of the armed forces, put into combat duty the pride of our designers, engineers, and workers — the latest systems that have confirmed their qualities and truly unique characteristics, and continue working on advanced models,” he described according to state media.

    All of this becomes even more unsettling for world leaders given the defense pact he just signed with North Korea’s Kim. Related to this, he had earlier issued a warning to South Korea in response to reports that it may ship weapons to Ukraine

    Possible deliveries of such weapons to the conflict zone in Ukraine by South Korea would be a mistake, Putin warned.

    “As for the supply of lethal weapons to the combat zone in Ukraine, it would be a very big mistake. I hope it will not happen. If it does, then we too will then make the respective decisions, which South Korea’s current leadership is unlikely to be pleased with,” he said.

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    He then threatened the reciprocal actions of arming Pyongyang with advanced Russian weapons. “Those who are supplying these weapons believe that they are not at war with us, well, I have said, including in Pyongyang, that we reserve the right to supply weapons to other regions, bearing in mind our agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, I don’t rule out this as well, where will these [weapons] go,” Putin said.

    This would be a ‘worst nightmare scenario’ also considering the Pentagon has for decades had large numbers of troops stationed on the Korean peninsula. Seoul is unlikely to pull the trigger on arming Kiev in any significant way, given it would further destabilize already tense relations with the north.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 19:20

  • Being Frank About Costco's $1.50 Hot Dog Combo
    Being Frank About Costco’s $1.50 Hot Dog Combo

    Authored by Thomas McArdle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Costco’s new CFO, Gary Millerchip, sent disciples of the ultra-low-priced warehouse chain into ecstasy when he told Wall Street analysts in May that the price of its legendary $1.50 quarter-pound, all-beef hot dog and soda with free refills would, despite raging inflation, remain at the price it’s held for about four decades.

    “To clear up some recent media speculation, I also want to confirm the $1.50 hot dog price is safe,” Millerchip said, correcting an iffier statement that had been made by his immediate predecessor, Richard Galanti.

    Customers wait in line to order below signage for the Costco Kirkland Signature $1.50 hot dog and soda combo, which has maintained the same price since 1985 despite consumer price increases and inflation, at the food court outside a Costco Wholesale Corp. store in Hawthorne, California, on June 14, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

    A free market means sellers having full freedom to set the prices of their wares or services, even if it includes the “loss leaderpractice of selling at a price that seems to lose the business money. There are many reasons a retailer sells something at a money-losing price, such as to make a splash as a new business in first entering a market or to engender customer loyalty—which can result in sales of other items that do make a profit.

    An infamous case of loss-leader strategy was the federally subsidized Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid car of the last decade, a four-seater originally costing nearly $40,000 even after the $7,500 federal check for each buyer. A showcase for the new, post-2008 financial crisis General Motors, which was purchased courtesy of the taxpayers by the Obama administration, its sales were disappointing. But GM insisted that the Volt, fleets of them parked unsold in dealer lots, wasn’t a product designed to make money but, rather, an assertion of “vision and leadership.”

    If a supermarket wants to lose money on half-gallons of milk located in the back of the store because it believes shoppers will, during their long stroll, grab a few of the profit-generating items on the shelves between the entrance and the dairy section, it should have every right to do so. This is Costco’s thinking, since each of its over 600 aircraft-hangar-like stores in the United States is like a Disneyland of rock-bottom deals on everything from groceries to clothes to appliances.

    Another celebrated example and resoundingly successful use of loss leader is Gillette selling its razors at far below cost, then pulling in lots of revenue through sales of replacement blades made exclusively for its own razors, while at the same time building a large customer base that leads to sales of other of its products with big profit margins, like aftershave and deodorant.

    Costco or Gillette’s competitors, or the media, of course, have every right to call out the practice as a cynical ploy. Even running rival businesses into the ground is a legitimate motive for loss-leader pricing; after all, the materialization of any new competitor offering attractive prices can be deemed an unfair burden that could crush a long-established, popular small business. Once government is allowed to make judgments on what constitutes unlawful “predatory” pricing, there is no knowing how much healthy competition it will restrict.

    Utilized in what looks to be such cutthroat purposes, loss leader facilitates and accelerates “creative destruction,” the term used by socialist economists Joseph Schumpeter and Werner Sombart to describe what Marx had vilified as capitalism’s “constant revolutionizing of production” and “uninterrupted disturbance of all social conditions.” The unprofitable neighborhood deli shuttering in the wake of the low prices offered by the supermarket chain opening a new store a short drive away is as much an example of creative destruction as the dislocation caused by Henry Ford’s assembly line or the brick-and-mortar businesses that could not survive the online marketplaces of the Internet. Who visits the mall to sit down with a travel agent when they can click on booking.com, begun by a recent graduate of a Dutch technical college nearly 30 years ago? (Answer: no one; such physical travel agencies no longer exist.)

    For government to poke a finger in the dike holding back creative destruction is to seek the artificial prevention of the inevitable, like attempting to hold back the Industrial Revolution. If politicians crusade against loss leader, declaring it an immorality, can it be long before it will criminalize free samples or giveaways by retailers? Absent the liberty to set prices there is no economic freedom in a free country.

    In Costco’s case, loss leader is turned somewhat on its head, since its customers are providing it with its profits before they even have access to the head-spinning deal at the snack bar. The members-only warehouse club has become the world’s third-largest retailer, and with a razor-thin 2 percent profit margin, Costco makes its real money—$242 billion in revenue last year—through the $60 annual fee it charges for a membership card (double that for an executive membership providing reductions on some already low prices, plus some fringe benefits).

    After shelling out that kind of dough for the privilege of being able to flash your card at the door, to walk in and see that impossible-to-believe deal at the snack counter for the iconic American junk food meal of frankfurter and fizzy drink provides a strong jolt of psychological validation. If one had doubts about parting with that $60 they might be allayed, replaced by self-congratulation.

    The buck-fifty deal, however, dates all the way back to 1983, which means that adjusted for inflation Costco members were at that time paying today’s equivalent of about $4.60. It was then that Costco’s co-founders, the late Jeffrey Brotman and retired Jim Sinegal, expressed the sentimental hope that the price would never rise. In the decades since, some unusual efforts have gone into keeping intact today’s version of Vice President Thomas Marshall’s tongue-in-cheek pronouncement that “What this country needs is a good five-cent cigar” from 110 years ago.

    For instance, to avoid reliance on the greater expense of outside suppliers, Costco established its own hot dog manufacturing plants in Los Angeles and Chicago. In January, Joey Kinsley of Cleveland spent a whole week eating nothing but Costco’s $1.50 hot dogs and soda, chronicling the experience on social media and explaining that he was doing so to take refuge from inflation. “It’s a deal that is unheard of in 2024,” Mr. Kinsley told Fox News.

    If Costco’s $1.50 hot dog and soda went by the wayside it would have a symbolic force not unlike Dollar Tree announcing that “In the midst of unprecedented inflation, Dollar Tree recently changed its primary price point to $1.25”—the absurdity of the dollar store no longer charging a dollar on most items. In fact, last month Dollar Tree further announced that its prices are rising to $1.50 on average, with some products to be sold at $7.

    So Costco bending over backward to continue to give away hot dogs for $1.50 will no doubt go down as one of the most effective uses of loss leader in corporate history, as its $60 and $120 memberships get renewed en masse year after year. But any notion that seeing that amazing price of yesteryear on the sign above the counter will persuade people into believing that inflation might not be as high as they think is belied by what consumers see just about everywhere other than at the warehouse snack bar.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 19:00

  • Israel Intent On Launching An Incursion Into Lebanon, Blinken Warns
    Israel Intent On Launching An Incursion Into Lebanon, Blinken Warns

    CNN has revealed that Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned top Arab officials that Israel is intent on launching an incursion into Lebanon. “It seems that they [Israel] are very serious about going into Lebanon,” a source who was privy to Blinken’s meeting with an Arab counterpart during his latest trip to the region said.

    CNN described further, “The Arab official’s response to Blinken, the source added, was that Hezbollah has communicated that they will not stop their strikes on Israel until Israel stops its operations in Gaza.”

    Via Reuters

    Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has warned this week that in the scenario of all-out war, no place in Israel would be safe and even nearby allies of Tel Aviv could come under Hezbollah rocket fire if they offer assistance – in a threat specifically warning Cyprus. This came soon after Israel’s top generals approved battle plans and acknowledged the IDF is on the ‘brink’ of launching an offensive against the Shia paramilitary group backed by Tehran.

    The US is till seeking to cool tensions and making the argument that broader war is good for no one. CNN additionally included the following surprising statement from the Israeli side (surprising given that Israeli military leaders know full well that Hamas is far more formidable a foe than Hamas):

    Israel has made the case that it can pull off a “blitzkrieg,” but the US is warning them that they may not be able to ensure that it remains a limited campaign, the official said.

    Israel’s strategy in a ground invasion scenario would be to keep the offensive ‘limited’ inasmuch as possible, primarily with the aim of creating a buffer zone of some 10km, which could allow the return of the tens of thousands of residents of northern Israel who have been within easy reach of Hezbollah’s constant drone and rocket barrages.

    Washington too has been pressing a ceasefire plan that would ideally see Hezbollah agree to a buffer zone. Referencing Biden’s special envoy in the region Amos Hochstein, who has been in Beirut the last couple of days (and in Israel before that), CNN writes that “If war is averted and Hochstein’s plan goes into effect, it would similarly see Hezbollah pull back around six miles, or ten kilometers, away from the border.” And more:

    “The fact that we have managed to even hold the front for this long has been a miracle,” a senior US official said, referring to the US’ efforts to keep the Israel-Hezbollah attacks from spiraling into an all-out war.

    “We’re entering a very dangerous period,” another senior Biden administration official said. “Something could start with little warning.”

    However the IDF might have trouble keeping operations limited: “But in order to prevent a return by the group in the future, Israel may want to further destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the area,” notes the report.

    It must be remembered that all the way back in January, Israel received a warning from US military intelligence (DIA) laying out that fighting a two-front war with Hamas in the south and Hezbollah in the north would be devastating, and likely a losing situation.

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    This surprise revelation and blunt warning was buried in a prior Washington Post story

    In private conversations, the administration has warned Israel against a significant escalation in Lebanon. If it were to do so, a new secret assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that it will be difficult for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to succeed because its military assets and resources would be spread too thin given the conflict in Gaza, according to two people familiar with those findings. A spokesperson for the DIA did not offer comment.

    We previously unpacked the implication in special analysis If Full War With Hezbollah Opens, Israel Will Lose.

    Blinken’s office was cited in the same report as saying at the time: “It is in no one’s interest — not Israel’s, not the region’s, not the world’s — for this conflict to spread beyond Gaza.” This has been the official US line since then as well. Of course, this would likely hasten a broader Israel-Iran war, likely to also spill into Syrian and Iraq.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 18:40

  • The Game Theory Of Biden's Replacement And Trump's VP Pick
    The Game Theory Of Biden’s Replacement And Trump’s VP Pick

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    If there’s one political rule that always seems to hold true, it’s that both parties will wind up choosing the worst possible selection for whatever needs they seek to fulfill.

    That’s just the miracle of government. Who knew that doing things as inefficiently as humanly possible — selecting candidates, spending tax money, passing legislation, appointing cabinets — was such an art form, reserved for the likes of brilliant visionaries like Jeb Bush, Jasmine Crockett, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell and the likes?

    The talent is uncanny. If you gave me 20 years as President, all $80 trillion in tax receipts the country brought in over that time and made it my one sole objective to do so, I still wouldn’t be able to engineer the following headline during my tenure:

    Anyway, every two years, we have a major round of elections, and every two years I’m stunned that the slate of candidates we put up for election are passed off as representing the best we can do on both sides of the aisle.

    And every four years, it seems like there are always running jokes during the presidential election that most people would vote for literally anybody other than the two choices they are being given.

    As someone who leans conservative, I hope this maxim of choosing the worst possible replacement continues to hold true when it comes to Joe Biden’s coming replacement.

    It seems fairly obvious at this point that the generally incomprehensible Biden is going to have to be swapped out with someone who is at least semi-conscious. If Democrats don’t do it between now and the election, Biden almost certainly will (1) lose the election or (2) not be finishing a second term.

    The good news for conservatives is that Democrats don’t show any signs of letting up from their current strategy of torpedoing their own party.

    I’ve mentioned in passing that I think a long line of centrist Democrats, including the likes of former candidate Dean Phillips or potentially Michelle Obama, would throttle Donald Trump in a national election.

    This will be an unpopular statement with some, but I believe Trump is beating Biden by a wide margin not because Trump is the overwhelming objective favorite of the country, but because he’s the overwhelming favorite relative to the idea of another 4 years of Joe Biden.

    If you were to stack Trump up against any middle aged centrist Democrat with a pulse who promises to pull back on woke policy and return the country to some form of normalcy, he’d likely slip significantly in the polls. I don’t know why this is so difficult for Democrats to understand, but then again they don’t exactly seem to be the party of common sense decision making. If liberals ignore this obvious decision that could instantly win them the election and instead continue playing “the game” that dictates people who have “put their time in” deserve a chance more than somebody like Dean Phillips, they’re going to lose the election.

    If you think Hillary Clinton’s appearance at the Tony Awards the other night was a coincidence, think again. I think it is a sign there’s a very real chance that she is in the running to replace Joe Biden. If I had to guess, second to Hillary would be Kamala Harris because the Democrats probably feel like they “owe it” to her, not only for being current vice president but also for DEI purposes.

    I can’t even begin to tell you how terrible either of these selections would be, not only for the country but for the Democratic Party. Both candidates are unbearable, and the country has already had their fill of both of them.

    Clinton would be the closer race of the two, in my opinion, because if you recall correctly, Harris got curb-stomped during the Democratic primaries while making her run for president. And for the most part, it appears the country still finds her detestable.

    To boot, the last four years have proven, on top of that, that she’s an airhead.

    Either way, the nation would see both of these candidates as more of the same, and they would do little to advance Democrats’ against Donald Trump.

    But it isn’t just Democrats that are horrific political strategists, and all one needs to do is look at Donald Trump’s shortlist for vice president to understand that.

    When I read the list of those in serious consideration, I couldn’t help but quote this scene in Major League:

    “Ricky Vaughn? Willie Hayes. I never heard of most of these guys. Mitchell Friedman?”

    “Who’re these f*ckin’ guys?”

    At first glance, it appears Trump’s strategy in picking a vice president is to get somebody milquetoast enough to move him closer to the center, not eclipse his bombast, and support him vehemently. We’ll call it the “Pence strategy”.

    But as Trump quickly found out with endorsing Mike Johnson for the Speaker of the House role, a good portion of his base wants somebody who isn’t a centrist, and instead unapologetically supports the Make America Great Again agenda.

    It’s baffling to me that with potential picks like Tulsi Gabbard, Kari Lake, and Vivek Ramaswamy out there, Trump would be mulling over a list that includes the likes of “Little” Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum, both of whom have the personality and likability of a damp washcloth.

    I think Trump could be in the right neighborhood looking at somebody like Byron Donalds, who is strong and outspoken, and would obviously give Trump further reach into the black community, but I think the key issue he needs to defend heading into November is the abortion issue. He’s not going to lose on the issues of law and order, inflation or the economy, that’s for sure.

    Trump selecting a female vice president would check a lot of boxes: it softens up his image, it gives him an inroad with women on the abortion issue, and it checks the equality box that a lot of undecided/independent liberal-ish voters close to the center wouldn’t mind checking off.


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    I do understand the strategy of not wanting to change much when you’re already ahead, and I understand a guy like Doug Burgum has appeal because he brings nothing positive or negative to the campaign, but I do think Trump doesn’t need to totally focus on playing defense with his pick. Someone like Ramaswamy would bring another sharp tongue, adept at slicing and dicing through the mainstream media’s bullsh*t. Former Democrat Gabbard would bring inroads not only to women voters, but to Democrats. Someone like Elise Stefanik or Kari Lake would also be a value add if Trump needs to defend the abortion issue as top priority.

    The Democrats still have a legitimate shot to pull this election out, but their window to make a change is closing every day. The nonsense of not being able to pull Biden out of the race because he’s an incumbent will come back to bite them in the ass if that’s the road they want to take.

    Perhaps the strategy is to allow Biden to humiliate himself at the first debate so whoever they put in his place for the second one looks that much better. But as days and weeks pass by without making a change, they are losing crucial time. They will need to warm up a second candidate — and entire second campaign — to the public, even if it is somebody they already know like Hillary Clinton.

    The name of the game for the conservatives is simply not to screw anything up. I understand that there’s a case for playing “prevent defense” and slotting in somebody like Burgum as vice president, but resting on their laurels when they’re only ahead slightly could wind up doing more harm than good.

    The Philadelphia Eagles beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII by consistently being aggressive. When you are going up against the entire Washington machine in the Democratic Party—essentially Tom Brady’s dynastic New England Patriots of the political world—sometimes it can do more harm than good to keep your foot off the gas instead of on it. Sometimes you have to go for the strategic jugular.

    If you were a Democratic strategist or a Republican strategist, who would your choices be for Biden’s replacement and Trump’s VP? After all, they can’t be any worse than the leading candidates for both as they stand right now.

    QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page hereThis post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get sh*t wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 18:20

  • US Bank Deposits & Money-Market Funds See Small Outflows As Stock Market Decoupling Hits Record High
    US Bank Deposits & Money-Market Funds See Small Outflows As Stock Market Decoupling Hits Record High

    On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total bank deposits rose a tiny $2.1BN increase last week as money-market funds saw a $22.3BN outflow…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably, the MM fund outflows were dominated by a $30BN decline in institutional funds as Retail funds continued to see inflows (+8BN)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total bank deposits rose by 8BN (the third weekly NSA inflow in a row)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    However, excluding foreign deposits, US banks saw a net $5BN SA deposit outflow (large banks -$1.4BN, small banks -$3.6BN) while on an NSA basis, domestic deposits rose by $15.7BN (large banks +$14.6BN, small banks +$1.1BN)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Fed’s balance sheet barely budged for the second week in a row (-$6BN after last week’s +$3BN)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Fed’s now-expired Bank Bailout fund (BTFP) saw a tiny $352 million decrease – erasing all the arb-driven surge in demand for the facility, but leaving a whopping $107BN left out there filling holes in bank balance sheets

    Source: Bloomberg

    And finally, with money-market fund and bank deposit outflows, it’s not hard to see where that money is flowing… the decoupling between US equity market cap and bank reserves at The Fed is now way beyond record highs…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is Powell’s acquiescence to a bigger, sooner ‘QT taper’ (in the face of not-under-control inflation) to soften the blow when this crocodile mouth snaps shut.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 18:00

  • Ukrainian Drone Swarms Target Four Russian Refineries In Major Attack
    Ukrainian Drone Swarms Target Four Russian Refineries In Major Attack

    Brent crude futures were flat on Friday amid rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, which seems counterintuitive as escalating war risks could result in supply disruptions. 

    In the overnight hours, four refineries in southern Russia were targeted, with one facility damaged, in one of the largest drone swarm attacks since the war in Ukraine began, Bloomberg reports. 

    Seventy drones were intercepted and destroyed over Crimea and the Black Sea and 43 over the Krasnodar region, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram, without saying how many drones took part in the attack. The Afipsky, Ilsky, Krasnodar and Astrakhan refineries were attacked, Ukraine’s General Staff said later in a Facebook post.

    In the Seversky district of the Krasnodar region, where the Afipsky and Ilsky refineries are located, “administrative buildings were damaged on the territory of an oil refinery” as a result of the attack, local governor Veniamin Kondratyev said on Telegram. Interfax earlier reported that a fire affecting area of ​​50 square meters (538 square feet) was extinguished by morning, with two people injured. -BBG

    Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for the drone swarm attack, saying it launched drones against “the Afipskiy, Ilskiy, Krasnodar and Astrakhan oil refineries.” They also said an intelligence center in southern Russia was targeted.

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    Drones also targeted a “preparation and storage area” in the Krasnodar region, resulting in a “series of explosions and a fire with subsequent detonation,” Ukraine said.

    More than two years since the war began, Ukraine is ramping up cross-border drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as conflict spillover risks soar. Kyiv and its Western backers aim to paralyze one of Russia’s most important industries: oil refining.

    In recent days, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged several oil storage facilities. Last month, two other refineries in southern Russia, including Rosneft’s large Tuapse facility on the Black Sea, were targeted.

    In March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said oil refineries in Russia are “absolutely legitimate targets” from a military point of view.

    Recall that the Biden administration has freaked out about Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia. This was primarily because of the risk of driving Brent crude prices north of $100/bbl. However, in recent weeks, Biden ‘greenlighted‘ Ukraine to attack deep within Russia with US weapons.

    In markets, Brent crude prices headed for the first back-to-back weekly gain since early April. Prices are ending the week around the $85/bbl handle. Escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East reflect a higher war risk premium that should be added to Brent crude prices.

    Meanwhile… 

    One major issue is if Ukraine continues targeting Russian oil infrastructure, Moscow could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the West. As we recently noted, this includes the “CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market.”

    Given all the conflict, the Biden team continues to be very concerned because an energy shock could send domestic gasoline prices at the pump to the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 06/21/2024 – 17:44

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