- China Crackdown On Property Developer Debt Sparks Fears About Systemic Crisis
China Crackdown On Property Developer Debt Sparks Fears About Systemic Crisis
Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2020 – 02:45The recent near-death experience of China’s most-indebted property developer, China Evergrande, which obtained a last minute liquidity injection, sparked speculation whether Beijing will ease on its recent debt curbs and ongoing deleveraging approach. The answer appears to be no, because according to Reuters, Chinese regulators have asked the country’s property developers to provide more details about their debts than markets had expected, as authorities look to tackle unbridled borrowing in the real estate sector.
Dubbed “the three red lines”, regulators outlined caps on debt-to-cash, debt-to-assets and debt-to-equity ratios at a meeting in Beijing in August between 12 major property developers and officials from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People’s Bank of China. The twelve companies, which collectively account for 28% of the homes sold in the country so far this year – and as a reminder, China’s real estate sector is where the bulk of China’s middle class has parked its net worth – were selected for a pilot debt reduction scheme as policymakers look to reduce broader financial risks.
As a result of the new policy, developers’ annual debt growth will be effectively capped to around 15%.
While property sources had said they expected a rush to get around the rules by moving more debt off balance sheets, in a form that developers were asked to submit every month, the companies are also being asked for details on items outside the usual financing channels like bank loans and bond issuance. They will need to provide debt figures on off-balance sheet projects.
According to Reuters, other debt information requested include details on projects that give a financial entity guaranteed returns and buy-back agreements – essentially a debt disguised as equity, as well as the amount of securitization of receivables in the supply chain. In short, Beijing wants a full accounting of everything going on at local developers.
“The government is monitoring everything now, unless you want to cheat, but they will be able to tell from your monthly figures,” said a senior executive at one of the developers in the pilot scheme.
Following concerns of too much developer leverage sparked by Evergrande’s liquidity crisis, Chinese media reported that the cap for the debt-to-assets ratio will be set at 70%, the cap for net debt to equity will be set at 100% and the developers should also have enough cash to match their short-term liabilities. While authorities have yet to announcement details of the implementation, the industry expects the rules to be applied sector-wide in the first half of next year.
As we reported last month, the massively indebted China Evergrande Group, the country’s second largest property developer, has been among those scrambling to raise money, with fears of a cash-crunch sending its shares and bonds skidding last month.
If these reports of leverage crackdown are accurate, it could pose a systemic risk to China’s most important industry: according to analysts at ANZ, about one-fifth of real estate companies with China A-shares have leverage ratios exceeding the thresholds. They warn that a sharp reduction in leverage “could rattle credit markets and weigh heavily on the property sector”, a key driver behind China’s swift economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.
In a note published two weeks ago, SocGen China anlyst Wei Yao wrote that “a new chapter of deleveraging has begun”:
A succession of events in the past few weeks have pushed the debt risk of China’s real estate sector to the forefront. Markets were at one point deeply concerned about the default risk of Evergrande, China’s biggest property developer. And even worse–the risk of a systemic debt crisis that could follow. This situation, while still developing, has calmed somewhat. However, this is probably really only the beginning of a new deleveraging campaign.
It all started with the government’s proposal to contain developers’ leverage. On 20 August, the PBoC and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) held a meeting with key real estate companies where policymakers proposed the so-called “three red lines” framework for monitoring debt risk and reducing leverage in the sector. According to media reports, the “three red lines” were drawn up based on three financial metrics, including 1) the debt-to-asset ratio, 2) the net debt ratio,and 3) cash flows to short-term debt ratio.
Future debt growth of real estate companies will be restricted in various degrees based on their current leverage as measured by these metrics (see the table below). In the harshest scenario, a developer will not be allowed to raise any more debt. Based on its current financial situation, Evergrande would in fact fall into this category.
This sudden deleveraging pressure has already proved to be very real and material. So much so, in fact, that less than two weeks after the August proposal surfaced, Evergrande started to offer aggressive discounts to boost sales and cash flows – as it is limited how much new debt it can raise – and culminated with the company’s liquidity crisis in late September, when news broke hat Evergrande had asked for financial assistance from the government with a warning of possible systemic risk in the case of inaction, which immediately triggered sharp risk-off both onshore and offshore in both equity and credit markets. Though Evergrande later denied this claim, financial markets did not calm down until the developer secured some relief from its investors on 29 September (more in the full timeline below):
As SocGen’s Yao warns, if the proposal is implemented to its full extent, “it would construe a significant deleveraging push on the whole sector.” According to Bloomberg’s analysis of 180 listed property companies, 8% of them are in the red group, 15% are in the orange, 30% in the yellow and less than half, or 47% in the green category.
Therefore, well over half of the combined balance sheet of the entire real estate sector would face material deleveraging pressure over the medium term.
Meanwhile, Yao also cautions that while the Evergrande risk may or may not have been completely resolved, “this incident certainly does not mark the end of the housing sector deleveraging” and in fact quite the opposite:
these events have steeled the resolve of policymakers’ to push ahead with their deleveraging agenda, as they have laid bare the financial fragility of this sector and offered policymakers a glimpse of the magnitude of the threat that such fragility could pose to the financials ystem.
Of course, deleveraging – especially in such a debt-reliant nation as China – is another word for contraction, and since tens of trillions of mainland household net worth are housed, so to speak, in China’s housing sector which has served as a remarkable ponzi scheme in recent years, failing to slow down even during domestic crises, the lack of unbridled developer debt issuance and new growth, could have catastrophic consequences on the broader economy.
Pan Gongsheng, a PBOC vice governor, told a forum in Beijing on Wednesday the central bank has the draft of an overall assessment over property financing ready and it will make a public announcement at the right time, without further elaboration.
- Scotland – The Road To Independence: "Trick The System"?
Scotland – The Road To Independence: “Trick The System”?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2020 – 02:00Authored by Konrad Rękas via GlobalResearch.ca,
Support for the independence of Scotland has been growing steadily and has remained at 58% for several months. As the latest poll adds, as many as one third of those voting against independence in the 2014 referendum – would support a divorce from the UK today. The key to achieving this goal will be the Scottish Parliament elections next year.
The Scots Parliament consists of 129 members – 73 are elected in single-member constituencies and 56 come from regional lists, 7 from each of the 8 constituencies into which Scotland has been divided more or less according to traditional geography. This system was intended to ensure a balance between a strong majority of the winning party and the proportional representation of the remaining ones.
And as with everything in Scotland – the general assumption had to give way to the most important issue: does it help or harm The Independence cause?
Three Brakes on Independence
A country whose inhabitants in last few decades have never given the Conservative party a majority – for the last 13 years is ruled by the Scottish National Party. And, as it happens in such situations – some like it, others less, some like SNP definitely progressive course, others just grit their teeth, because it is our party, and the time for divisions and programs after regaining independence will come. However, it is not the sympathy for the SNP or the lack of it that is combined with the problem of taking this completely last step, which the Scots have to make to regain their own state.
In fact, this process is hampered by three factors. First, that is the Party’s institutionalization, and paradoxically, its continued successes and growing support.
Since Scots who want independence feel obliged to vote for the SNP regardless of whether they support individual elements of its policy – it is not difficult to guess that the party elite must have sprouted the idea of independence as the Holy Grail, which everyone is constantly looking for, which is constantly pursued, but which is really better never to find.
Thousands of Scottish independence supporters march through Glasgow during an All Under One Banner march on January 11, 2020 in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Ewan Bootman/NurPhoto)
The party feels… just too comfortable. It ossifies, has lost its dynamics, and in addition, the SNP has inevitably become the property of its own apparatus, and the party leader, Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, flanked by her own husband, Peter Murrel, who is the Party’s Chief Executive Officer (i.e. the head of this apparatus) hardly accepts differences of opinion or even any more capable personality in her surroundings.
In addition, the Scottish National Party (which has been a kind of national Social Democracy since the 1980s) is shifting more and more clearly towards the Social-Liberalism agenda, typical for Western democracies, focusing on moral issues, the LGBT question (?), the fight against “hate speech“, while maintaining an active social policy, but too left-wing for the local middle class, and too conservative and too submissive towards possessing class from the point of view of genuine socialists. Finally, all this is poured with preaching principledness (according to observers aggravating Scottish politics since John Knox), as a result of which all national Government strategies bear the mark of “moral rightness” (as in the case of the unequivocal commitment of most SNP against BREXIT, and recently a fierce anti-COVID campaign performed by Ms First Minister).
As far as it all is concerned it cannot be surprising that although the SNP noted record support, which remains firmly at the level of 54 percent. – it is at the same time among both in the Party’s officials and the activists of the much wider social movement for independence (generally identified as YES) there is ferment and reflection whether waiting for political changes only after regaining sovereignty is not a mistake and at the same time obstruction against the road to victory.
Why Ms Thatcher Has Not Biten Her Tongue?
The second factor blocking the victory is the consistent resistance of Westminster, which is firmly in the position of a “referendum once in a generation” – although no one from the Scottish side ever agreed to this, even before the previous, slightly lost vote in 2014. On the contrary, Scots prefer to get a quote from one of the idols of Boris Johnson, Margaret Thatcher, widely hated in Scotland, who, with her inherent lack of foresight and insight, once said:
“Scotland does not need a referendum on independence. She just needs to send a majority of nationality MPs to Westminster to have a mandate to independence”.
What seemed unreal or even surreal in the 1980s – has become a fact. Scotland sends mainly nationalists to the House of Commons (48 MPs out of 59 per country). Also, in the national Parliament, the SNP has a clear advantage – 63 MSPs, who can count on the support of six more of the even more pro-independence Scottish Greens. According to the polls, therefore, there should be no problems with a repetition of these results in the national elections in May 2021 as well. And this, however, brings us to the third problem.
Trick the System
And this problem is mentioned at the beginning … mixed ordination. It was constructed in such a way that it naturally reduces the number of seats won from party lists by the party that won the election in constituencies. Too complicated? Well, let’s examine an example.
In 2016, the SNP get 1,059,897 votes in the constituency elections, i.e. 46.5 percent, what gave 59 seats. In turn, in the regional part, with the strategy “Both votes for the SNP” – the Party won 953,987 votes / 41.7 percent. – what gave, however, only 4 seats.
In comparison, the Tories who finished second received 501,844 votes / 22 percent in constituencies – which was enough for 7 MSPs and 524,222 votes / 22.9 percent in voting on lists – which transferred into 24 MSPs.
Can you see already? To win one regional seat – SNP needed as many as 238,471 votes, while one conservative seat was worth only 21,842 votes. How did that happen?
Well, the Tories decided to… trick the system.
With the highest poll support among all the unionist parties, they based the entire campaign on the slogan “Only we can stop the SNP! Conservatives = No More Referendum!”.
As a result, they obtained these additional 23,000 votes from Liberals and Labour voters, which allowed them to consume the bonus. On the contrary, the SNP’s wrong tactic led to the waste of hundreds of thousands of Indy votes of which only a little over 100,000 were saved by shifting wisely to the Greens (13,172 or 0.6 percent in the constituency elections, but 150,426 and 6.6 percent in the proportional elections), which ensured a pro-independence majority in Parliament).
And so, we come to the most important issue of Scottish politics for today and for the next year. Namely – who this time will take the independence votes in regional elections when the SNP will again win in constituencies the with a large advantage?
Life Is Awakened in Scottish Politics
At least three centres are willing. Of course – still Scottish Greens, even quite normal as for ecologists, with an extensive social program, with lot of positively crazy people as members and supporters – but also with traditional prejudices of this trend: car-banning in the cities, suppression of diesel engines, too blind faith in the full replacement of Scottish gas and oil by the green energy (although the companies producing it not only failed to deliver on their promises to create jobs in place of those closed in more carbon dioxide industries, but also represented mainly foreign capital, swung the Scottish market, making it one of the more foreign-dominated even as on the realities of Western Europe). To put it even more simply – not everyone is an avid ecologist on an electric scooter, and the Greens, even as nice as the Scottish ones, inevitably encounter a glass ceiling in their campaigns.
The second proposal is a new formation from exactly the opposite side, a de facto split, technically founded by former SNP and partly the YES activists – the Independence for Scotland party. Although it carefully avoids speaking on any more explicit topic – in the opinion of voters it positions herself, if not to the right (which sounds at least suspicious in Scotland), then certainly more in the centre than the SNP.
In addition, it is not in favour of joining the European Union, proposing instead the Nordic Council and the Norwegian and Icelandic routes, and is cautiously sceptical about the various Genderism ideas of the Scottish Government. However, the ISP also refrains from more right-wing affiliating, what was proved by the quick removal of one of the original founders who, in a private entry on Twitter dared to express sympathy and support for Donald Trump, truly hated in Scotland, where some of his businesses are located.
And finally, the third, perhaps the most interesting offer is the party of the parties, the alliance, and more recently Action for Independence. AFI was appointed by veterans of the independence movement, such as Dave Thompson, a former SNP MSP, who for this party … won the first elections in 2007, catching the Electoral Commission with an error in the distribution of seats, which could cost an independence majority in parliament. Thompson, despite his merits, has always maintained a lot of autonomy (including voting in 2014 against the legalization of same-sex marriage), he is also known for his commitment to the vision of Scottish independence without getting involved in post-British international agreements (like NATO and EU). However, the AFI, which he is creating after the return from retirement, does not fall into such nuances so far, wanting to be a broad platform for all smaller groups, from the left to pro-independence right-wing (e.g. Libertarians) – based on one goal: tricking the electoral law even more effectively than the Conservatives did in 2016.
The calculation is easy as a child’s play. If at least half of the voters voting for the SNP in the constituency elections – transfer a vote to another independence group in a regional vote, then it will win second place, obtaining up to 24 seats from the lists, thus ensuring, along with the SNP, an absolute independence majority in Holyrood. And it will either force a new referendum on Westminster or finally stop looking at it, dissolving the Union of the Crowns and unilaterally announcing the creation of the Scottish state.
The first partners are already embracing the AFI concept – first, the left-wing Solidarity, a party of Tommy Sheridan, one of Scotland’s most charismatic politicians and journalists (we can read his analyses i.e. on the Sputnik International). At the same time, there are promising talks with the small, but very active community of the Scottish Libertarian Party (the only one so consistently criticizing the anti-COVID restrictions of the Sturgeon’s Government). Of course, the bigger the partner, the more difficult the talks are, but there are many indications that both the ISP and the Greens, and perhaps smaller socialist organizations, will ultimately have no choice but to start together – for a common goal.
And that for the Scots always and exclusively – will be Independence.
- Beijing Readying "Retaliation List" After US Names 6 More Chinese Outlets As Foreign Missions
Beijing Readying “Retaliation List” After US Names 6 More Chinese Outlets As Foreign Missions
Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2020 – 01:00On Wednesday the US State Department designated six more Chinese media outlets as “agents of China’s government,” forcing them to have to register officially as foreign missions if they want to keep operating on US soil under the Foreign Missions Act. This brings the total number of Chinese media outlets considered “foreign missions” or essentially agents of a foreign power to 15.
“We simply want to ensure that American people, consumers of information, can differentiate between news written by a free press and propaganda distributed by the Chinese Communist Party itself,” Pompeo said. “Not the same thing,” he bluntly concluded.
Predictably, an angry reaction was swift out of well-known Chinese state media pundits, foremost among them Global Times editor Hu Xijin, who denounced that “The US has gone too far.”
The US has gone too far. The move will further poison working environment of media outlets in each other’s country. As long as Chinese media outlets suffer actual harm, Beijing will definitely retaliate, and US media outlets’ operation in HK could be included in retaliation list. pic.twitter.com/xTSDyRHpx6
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) October 21, 2020
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He vowed that “Beijing will definitely retaliate” and that additionally this would likely take the form of targeting American outlets operating in Hong Kong.
Xijin further suggested a “retaliation list” is being prepared by Beijing authorities.
When earlier this year Washington designated the first nine Chinese state-run outlets, Beijing retaliated by expelling about a dozen US media correspondents from Chinese soil. They were mostly from the big three outlets of the NY Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal.
To ensure greater transparency of the Chinese Communist Parties influence in the U.S., I designated six additional People’s Republic of China’s propaganda entities as foreign missions. The American people deserve to know what these outlets are and for whom they work.
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) October 21, 2020
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The State Department has now added the following six outlets:
Pursuant to authorities under the Foreign Missions Act, the State Department is issuing today a new determination that designates the U.S. operations of Yicai Global, Jiefang Daily, Xinmin Evening News, Social Sciences in China Press, Beijing Review, and Economic Daily as foreign missions. These six entities all meet the definition of a foreign mission under the Foreign Missions Act in that they are “substantially owned or effectively controlled” by a foreign government.
Via VOA News * * *
Here’s the running list as it stands now…
Designated Feb. 18:
- Xinhua News Agency
- China Global Television Network
- China Radio International
- China Daily Distribution Corporation
- Hai Tian Development USA
Designated June 22:
- China Central Television
- China News Service
- The People’s Daily
- The Global Times
Designated Oct. 21:
- Yicai Global
- Jiefang Daily
- Xinmin Evening News
- Social Sciences in China Press
- Beijing Review
- Economic Daily
- Four Newborn Babies Die In Australia After Being Denied Heart Surgery Due To COVID Travel Rules
Four Newborn Babies Die In Australia After Being Denied Heart Surgery Due To COVID Travel Rules
Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2020 – 00:10Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
Four newborn babies in Adelaide, Australia have died after being denied life-saving heart surgery due to coronavirus travel restrictions.
Adelaide is the only mainland Australian capital that doesn’t provide paediatric cardiac surgery, therefore around 100 babies a year have to be sent interstate to receive treatment.
However, due to COVID-19 lockdown restrictions imposed by the Australian government, transfers to Melbourne have stopped and the babies have to make a longer journey to Sydney instead.
“Obsetrician Professor John Svigos said four babies who had died in Adelaide in the past month had been unable to be transferred and would have “almost certainly” benefited from on-site surgery,” reports 9 News.
Four Newborns in Adelaide have died after being denied lifesaving heart surgery because it wasn’t available in Adelaide, and they couldn’t be transferred interstate because of travel restrictions. #9News pic.twitter.com/IFZsv9kq4k
— 9News Australia (@9NewsAUS) October 20, 2020
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During a press conference on Wednesday, Victoria’s Premier Daniel Andrews deflected blame for the newborns’ deaths. He said that his government’s health authorities told him that they did not prevent the children from being transported to Melbourne.
“I don’t think it is a matter of restrictions,” he said, claiming “there was a choice not at our end, but the other end for them not to be sent.”
Adelaide’s Women’s and Children’s Hospital said in a statement that its pediatric cardiac surgery services are currently under review, and promised that “South Australian children will always have access to the health services they need.”
The deaths of the four newborns have sparked outrage across Australia.
In an on-air screed, Sky News Australia host Paul Murray lashed out at the “failures of South Australian government” and the “incompetence of the Victorian government,” and said it was “outrageous” that a developed country such as Australia was incapable of saving the children’s lives.
Numerous health experts have warned that the impact of coronavirus lockdown measures is having a devastating impact on health, with untold deaths due to serious illnesses going untreated.
Last month, Germany’s Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development, Gerd Muller, warned that lockdown measures throughout the globe will end up killing more people than the coronavirus itself.
“We expect an additional 400,000 deaths from malaria and HIV this year on the African continent alone,” Muller said, adding that “half a million more will die from tuberculosis.”
Muller’s comments arrived months after a leaked study from inside the German Ministry of the Interior revealed that the impact of the country’s lockdown could end up killing more people than the coronavirus due to victims of other serious illnesses not receiving treatment.
Another study found that lockdowns will conservatively “destroy at least seven times more years of human life” than they save.
Professor Richard Sullivan also warned that there will be more excess cancer deaths in the UK than total coronavirus deaths due to people’s access to screenings and treatment being restricted as a result of the lockdown.
His comments were echoed by Peter Nilsson, a Swedish professor of internal medicine and epidemiology at Lund University, who said, “It’s so important to understand that the deaths of COVID-19 will be far less than the deaths caused by societal lockdown when the economy is ruined.”
According to Professor Karol Sikora, an NHS consultant oncologist, there could be 50,000 excess deaths from cancer as a result of routine screenings being suspended during the lockdown in the UK.
Experts have also warned that there will be 1.4 million deaths globally from untreated TB infections due to the lockdown.
As we further previously highlighted, a data analyst consortium in South Africa found that the economic consequences of the country’s lockdown will lead to 29 times more people dying than the coronavirus itself.
* * *
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- China "Steps Up War Preparations" With Hypersonic Missile Deployment Across From Taiwan
China “Steps Up War Preparations” With Hypersonic Missile Deployment Across From Taiwan
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 23:50China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has reportedly deployed hypersonic missiles across from Taiwan, Hong Kong media reported on Sunday, sparking concern about war preparations.
The South China Morning Post, citing anonymous military observers and sources, said missile bases along Southeast China were “upgraded” with Dongfeng-17 (DF-17) hypersonic missiles.
“The DF-17 hypersonic missile will gradually replace the old DF-11s and DF-15s that were deployed in the southeast region for decades,” the source said. “The new missile has a longer range and can hit targets more accurately.”
Hypersonic missiles give China significant leverage over Taiwan’s anti-ballistic missile shield due to the glide vehicle’s unpredictable ballistic trajectory – suggesting Taipei is powerless against a DF-17 attack.
DF-17’s Unpredictable Path
SCMP said the new hypersonic missiles are deployed at bases located in the Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, which are in striking range of Taiwan. Beijing’s increased militarization of its southeast coast is very suggestive of preparations for an invasion.
Scenario: China Invasion Of Taiwan
This time last year, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu sounded the alarm about a potential invasion. He said if, for whatever reason, China’s economy crashed, the communist government would invade Taiwan to divert attention from domestic economic woes.
China’s DF-17 Hypersonic Missile
Andrei Chang, editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review, said the deployments are an extension of the Marine Corps and Rocket Force capabilities in Fujian and Guangdong provinces:
“Every rocket force brigade in Fujian and Guangdong is now fully equipped.” Chang asserts that this is evidence of the communist regime’s invasion plans: “The size of some of the missile bases in the Eastern and Southern theatre commands have even doubled in recent years, showing the PLA is stepping up preparations for a war targeting Taiwan.”
Although Taiwan’s government claims itself as an independent country called the “Republic of China,” Beijing considers it a Chinese province that must rejoin the mainland. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have deteriorated since Tsai Ing-wen from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected president in 2016. She has frequently rejected the one-China principle.
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei have slid even more with the Trump administration’s supply of drones, fighter jets, and missiles to the island.
Beijing has frequently warned against the US’ defense sales to Taiwan, calling them a violation of China’s sovereignty.
Earlier this summer, the PLA staged a war exercise across the Taiwan Strait as if it appeared it was planning an amphibious assault on the island.
In September, Hu Xijn, the editor of Global Times, warned that if US troops were to station in Taiwan, “the PLA will definitely start a just war to safeguard China’s territorial integrity.”
Recent war simulations over Taiwan between the US and China have shown repeated losses for the Americans. Is China about to make a move on Taiwan?
- Home Depot Co-Founder: "Fraud" To Suggest Middle-Class Won't See Higher Taxes Under Biden
Home Depot Co-Founder: “Fraud” To Suggest Middle-Class Won’t See Higher Taxes Under Biden
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 23:32Authored by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.news,
Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone ripped into the Biden tax plan on Wednesday when he said that it was a “fraud” to suggest that middle-class Americans won’t have their taxes raised if Joe Biden is elected President.
“First of all there’s a reality, you aren’t going to get the revenue numbers by just taxing the rich,” Langone told Fox Business.
“The only way a tax increase will generate revenues is to go after the middle class. That’s where the numbers are. These people are being misled,” he explained. “It’s absolutely a fraud to suggest that the money that’s going to be needed is going to come from the rich or the super-rich.”
Langone would add that the problem with going after the middle class with tax hikes is “you go after the backbone of the economy” and “we will have a bad recession” as a result.
The Home Depot co-founder believes that the Biden team is well aware that the idea of generating enough revenue through taxing the rich will not work and that lower and middle-class Americans will find this out “when its too late.”
Biden’s $4 trillion tax, to be implemented over the next ten years, was described as “the highest in American history – indeed, in world history” by Lew Uhler, chairman of the National Tax Limitation Committee, and Peter Ferrara a senior policy adviser to NTLF in their analysis published in The Hill.
The analysis showed that Biden’s plan would raise taxes on middle-class families by over $2,000 a year, with a $1,300 annual tax increase on a median-income, single parent with one child.
It also showed that the plan would double the current capital gains tax, pushing it towards 40% while increasing the death tax.
Separately, an analysis done by the D.C.-based Tax Foundation concluded that the Biden plan would reduce GDP by 1.47 percent over the long term.
[ZH: In fact, as The WSJ Editorial Board wrote last week, the issue is whether Mr. Biden’s policies will nurture this strong recovery, or slow it down as Barack Obama’s policies did after the 2009 recession.
This is where the Hoover study comes in, as it examines the Democrat’s proposals on health insurance, taxes, energy and regulation.
Overall, the authors estimate that the Biden agenda, if fully implemented, would reduce full-time equivalent employment per person by about 3%, the capital stock per person by some 15%, and real GDP per capita by more than 8%.
Compared to Congressional Budget Office estimates for these variables in 2030, this means there would be 4.9 million fewer working Americans, $2.6 trillion less in GDP, and $6,500 less in median household income.
The authors reach three key conclusions:
First, transportation and electricity will require a lot more inputs (including 1.3 million net additional energy workers) to produce the same outputs because of Biden’s ambitious plans to further cut the nation’s carbon emissions. Because these industries are a nontrivial share of the overall economy, that means 1 or 2 percent less total factor productivity overall. These effects would be significantly larger —likely dwarfing the (nontrivial) rest of the agenda—if the energy goals are taken literally. The costs would also be concentrated geographically.
Second, labor wedges (the amount of the value created by additional work that goes to third parties) are increased by proposed changes to regulation as well as to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The quantitative findings for the ACA should be no surprise given the findings from previous efforts in the United States and other countries to expand health insurance coverage.
Third, Biden’s agenda reduces capital intensity by increasing average marginal tax rates on capital.
There is much more in the Hoover study, especially on the costs of returning to Obama-style regulation. Most of the media will ignore it, which is why we thought we’d provide readers with the full study.
President Trump on Wednesday said that Biden “will destroy our economy” with his plan to raise taxes.
Remember, BIDEN is going to raise your taxes at a level never seen before. This will not only be very costly for you, it will destroy our economy, which is coming back very rapidly.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 21, 2020
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We suspect he is right.
- Why Do People Get Payday Loans? A Breakdown By Income, Age And Location
Why Do People Get Payday Loans? A Breakdown By Income, Age And Location
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 21:00Submitted by Priceonomics,
With unemployment at a record high and the CARES Act expiring without additional funding, a record number of Americans are experiencing financial difficulties related to the Coronavirus pandemic, leading to a surge in payday loans. These types of loans are often called payday loans, and they’re typically the only type of loan available to Americans with lower incomes.
In this analysis, LendUp reviews the data on the reasons why Americans turn to payday loans and how it varies by age, income and geographic location.
For the most part Americans use payday loans for essential expenses rather than entertainment or paying back other debt. With many Americans financially struggling because of the pandemic and the expiration of government stimulus, one might expect that this struggle to pay expenses may become more intense.As part of our loan application process, we ask borrowers to state the reason they are seeking a loan. For this analysis, LendUP reviewed loans from 2017 to 2020 to see the most common reasons. The chart below shows the most common reasons given, split by percentage of LendUp loan recipients:
Outside of the catchall bucket of “Other”, the most common reason for getting a payday loan is to cover car expenses. For most Americans, a car is essential for getting to work and unexpected car troubles can jeopardize one’s employment as well as disrupt everyday life. After that, family & child-related expenses is the second most common reason for a payday loan.
More discretionary expenses like travel and entertainment make up just 6.6% of payday loans combined. Just 2.3% of payday loans are used to repay other loans, a practice that can leave borrowers with revolving debt that can be difficult to escape. Healthcare expenses make up 4.4% of payday loans (please note that in our survey methodology of loan recipients healthcare can also include veterinary expenses).
How do the reasons for getting a payday loan vary by one’s income? The chart below shows the percentage of loans by reason for each income group of LendUp loan recipients:
Higher-income recipients (earning over $110K per year) are more likely to get loans for healthcare expenses, but least likely for car expenses. Lower-income (earning less than $50K per year) recipients are most likely to get loans for repaying another loan and least likely to use a loan for healthcare expenses. Across all income groups, the use of payday loans for discretionary expenses is very low and the lowest income group is the least likely to use a payday loan for travel.
Next, let’s look how the reason for getting a payday loan varies by age. The following chart shows percentage of payday loans chosen by reason for each age cohort:
Young people (under age 25) are three times more likely than older people (age 55+) to use a payday loan for entertainment. Young people are also much more likely to use payday loans for travel or repaying other loans. Not surprisingly, those in the middle age cohorts are most likely to spend payday loans on expenses related to children and family. Older payday loan recipients are most likely to have to use the funds for healthcare-related expenses or car troubles.
Lastly, is there any geographical difference in the uses of payday loans? The final chart shows the breakdown of loan reason in the thirteen states LendUp has distributed loans.
Minnesota borrowers are most likely to use a payday loan for car expenses. California and Wyoming are most likely to use loans for entertainment. Illinois recipients are most likely to use the funds for family and child-related expenses. Wyoming residents are most likely to need a payday loan for healthcare. Oregon borrowers are most likely to use payday loans to repay other loans and Texas borrowers are most likely to use payday loans for travel.
* * *
With unprecedented economic uncertainty, many Americans have lost their jobs and still need to pay their bills and unexpected expenses. In this analysis, LendUp has shown that by and large, most payday loan recipients use the funds for essential expenses, though younger recipients are most likely to use the debt for things like travel, entertainment or servicing other loans. For the most part, however, people get payday loans to cover expenses that need to be paid urgently.
- US Intelligence Agencies Say Iran, Russia Tried To Interfere In US Election
US Intelligence Agencies Say Iran, Russia Tried To Interfere In US Election
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 20:40A major last-minute news conference by top intelligence officials, including no less than Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, has unveiled a bombshell assessment of US intelligence that Iran and Russia are in very specific ways actively trying to “influence opinion” regarding the presidential election.
DNI Ratcliffe during the special press briefing said the two US rivals have “taken specific actions to influence public opinion” regarding the election, describing that “these actions are desperate attempts by desperate adversaries.”
Demonstrating the presumed ‘high level’ nature of the alleged threat, Ratcliffe was joined in the press concerence by FBI Director Christopher Wray, Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers and Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Director Christopher C. Krebs.
Still frame from briefing of the federal agency heads It apparently is beyond some mere Facebook or social media posts as we’ve heard in the past specifically alleged against Russian intelligence, but instead involves hacked voter registration information as well as ‘spoofed’ emails sent to Democrats which were apparently intended to damage Trump:
“We have confirmed that some voter registration information has been obtained by Iran, and separately by Russia,” Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said in a press conference Wednesday evening. “This data can be used by foreign actors to attempt to convey misinformation,” he said.
He assured the public that US agencies did not “allow these efforts to have their intended effect” while underscoring that the Islamic Republic is seeking to damage the Trump campaign. If true, no doubt this is due to Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign which has choked the Iranian economy and isolated it on the world stage.
Ratcliffe then says Iran has been inciting social unrest and trying to damage Trump, despite WaPo reporting that Iran was targeting *Democrats* and threatening them if they didn’t vote for Trump. https://t.co/Fl1V37PmWw
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) October 21, 2020
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“We ask every American to do their part to defend against those who wish us harm,” Ratcliffe added. “Do not allow these efforts to have their intended effect.”
And more via The Washington Post:
By suggesting the group had gained access to privileged data, and also possibly penetrated electronic systems to detect how people were voting, the emails seemed designed to create the appearance of an election breach, said cybersecurity researchers. Such a move may serve to undermine confidence in the integrity of the democratic process without posing a genuine risk to the election, these researchers said.
The evening press conference riled the market, sending futures tumbling…
The issue of the “threatening emails” sent to registered Democrats is perhaps the most bizarre angle, as Fox reviews:
The news conference was held as Democratic voters in at least four battleground states, including Florida and Pennsylvania, have received threatening emails, falsely purporting to be from the far-right group Proud Boys, that warned “we will come after you” if the recipients didn’t vote for President Donald Trump.
The voter-intimidation operation apparently used email addresses obtained from state voter registration lists, which include party affiliation and home addresses and can include email addresses and phone numbers. Those addresses were then used in an apparently widespread targeted spamming operation. The senders claimed they would know which candidate the recipient was voting for in the Nov. 3 election, for which early voting is ongoing.
DNI Ratcliffe said specifically on this point that “…we have already seen Iran sending spoofed emails designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest, and damage President Trump. You may have seen some reporting on this in the last 24 hours or you may have even been one of the recipients of those emails.”
“Iran is distributing other content to include a video that implies that individuals could cast fraudulent ballots, even from overseas. This video and any claims about such allegedly fraudulent ballots are not true,” he added.
- Human Rights Watchdog Says Governments Using Pandemic To Crack Down On Online Dissent
Human Rights Watchdog Says Governments Using Pandemic To Crack Down On Online Dissent
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 20:20Authored by Aaron Kessel via Activist Post,
Governments around the world are using the ongoing pandemic to crack down on online dissent according to a human rights watchdog.
Washington-based Freedom House said dozens of countries have cited CV as a means “to justify expanded surveillance powers and the deployment of new technologies that were once seen as too intrusive.” They added that it marks the 10th consecutive annual decline in internet freedom, Barron’s reported.
The expansion of technological systems is enabling governments’ social control, according to the report.
“The pandemic is accelerating society’s reliance on digital technologies at a time when the internet is becoming less and less free,” said Michael Abramowitz, president of the nonprofit group.
“Without adequate safeguards for privacy and the rule of law, these technologies can be easily repurposed for political repression.”
China was singled out in the report noting, Chinese authorities “combined low- and high-tech tools not only to manage the outbreak of the coronavirus but also to deter internet users from sharing information from independent sources and challenging the official narrative.”
The report stated this shows a growing trend toward Chinese-style “digital authoritarianism” globally and a “splintering” of the internet as each government imposes its own regulations for citizens.
Freedom House said that of the estimated 3.8 billion people using the internet, just 20 percent live in countries with free internet, 32 percent in countries “partly free,” while 35 percent were in places where online activities are not free. The remainder live in countries that weren’t among the 65 assessed.
The report cited declines in countries where authorities have imposed internet shutdowns including Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, and India, and in Rwanda for its use of “sophisticated spyware to monitor and intimidate exiled dissidents.”
Activist Post has previously reported that countries were using the pandemic to shutdown online dissent back in May of this year. Expressing that governments around the world were using fake news to hide behind their online censorship efforts.
Hungary is one of the countries that began arresting citizens for allegedly spreading fake news related to the CV pandemic as ordered by Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Hungary isn’t the only country that is using the CV crisis to push draconian laws on its citizens. Activist Post previously reported early on during the CV outbreak that two individuals were arrested under Thailand’s new “Anti-Fake News Center” for spreading false information about the coronavirus. Malaysia also issued four arrests of its citizens for spreading rumors and “disinformation,” according to a report by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post. Those “suspects” included a tutor, two pharmacy assistants, and a university student whom if found guilty will face upwards to a $12,000 fine and up to 1 year in prison if convicted.
Then there is China, which arrested 8 people who were charged with spreading rumors about a virus before the coronavirus was publicly known. Beyond that, China recently highlighted what can be done with such a law by censoring a media outlet Caijing, which is one of the most reputable outlets in the country. In that article, the authors claimed that China significantly underreported both cases and deaths, especially among the elderly. (archive) (translation)
Another country, Singapore, on April 1st proposed a law to combat online fake news. Under the draft law, those who spread online falsehoods with a malicious intent to harm public interest could face jail terms of up to 10 years,Reuters reported.
Activist Post previously highlighted that the CV pandemic would be used as a Trojan horse to take away our rights and be used to push increased digital surveillance via our smartphones. But that’s not all, it also serves a means for other facial recognition technology to be more frequently used. Top10VPN continues to monitor the increase of the police state and decrease of our digital and physical rights noting the following figures.
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120 contact tracing apps are available in 71 countries
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45 apps now use Google and Apple’s API
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The U.S. has 23 apps, more than any other country in the world
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19 apps, with 4 million downloads combined, have no privacy policy
Digital Tracking Measures:
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60 digital tracking measures have been introduced in 38 countries
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Telecom providers have shared user data in 20 countries
Physical Surveillance Initiatives:
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43 physical surveillance measures have been adopted in 27 countries
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Drones have been used in 22 countries to help enforce lockdowns
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Europe introduced more surveillance measures than any other region
As Activist Post previously wrote while discussing the increase of a police surveillance state, these measures being put into place now will likely remain long after the pandemic has stopped and the virus has run its course. That’s the everlasting effect that COVID-19 will have on our society. The coronavirus may very well be a legitimate health concern for all of us around the world. But it’s the government’s response that should worry us all more in the long run.
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- USPS First Class Mail Not Arriving On Time In Battleground States Like Pennsylvania And Michigan
USPS First Class Mail Not Arriving On Time In Battleground States Like Pennsylvania And Michigan
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 20:00The U.S. Postal Service is still not sorting mail fast enough to process for the election, according to internal agency data.
Performance levels at the USPS are down more than 5% since July and are the lowest of any point in 2020, according to a new filing in federal court made by Attorney General Josh Shapiro.
The lag comes despite recent judges’ rulings that the Post Office couldn’t ban overtime and late delivery trips, Bloomberg notes.
Shapiro said: “Despite being subject to multiple injunctions, defendants have not improved their service performance.” He is asking for a judge to appoint an independent monitor to make sure the USPS abides by the court’s orders.
Shapiro argues that late trips and overtime by mail carriers has barely moved back toward pre-July levels, before the changes were made.
Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has been accused by Democrats of trying to interefere with the November 3 election as the nation expects a massive surge in mail-in ballots due to the pandemic. Several judges have also ruled that his changes “were intended to disrupt and challenge the legitimacy of the Nov. 3 election,” according to Bloomberg.
The USPS Inspector General said in a report earlier this week that DeJoy and officials never measured the impact of roughly five dozen changes put in place to save costs at the financially failing agency.
The report read: “These initiatives were implemented quickly and were communicated primarily orally, which resulted in confusion and inconsistent application across the country.”
First class mail continues to lag in some areas, however, including contested states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. In early October, only about 80% of mail was delivered on time in Philadelphia. That number fell to 71% in Detroit. Rates below 95% risk delaying mail-in ballots, according to former Deputy Postmaster General Ronald Stroman.
Stroman said: “Once you start slipping below that, then given the volume of absentee ballots, you’re starting to look at a significant number of votes that may not be counted if they are sent too close to the election.”
The USPS attests that it is abiding by the court’s orders, stating: “The preliminary injunction does not speak to service performance levels, or require USPS to guarantee a certain aggregate number of late or extra trips, but rather requires USPS to maintain and convey certain specific operational policies.”
“USPS asks that it be allowed to perform its duty in this important period, rather than continuing to litigate unnecessary disputes before this court,” the agency concluded.
- Elliott Management Latest Hedge Fund To Follow 'Uncle Carl' Icahn To Florida
Elliott Management Latest Hedge Fund To Follow ‘Uncle Carl’ Icahn To Florida
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 19:40Ever since David Tepper revealed that he was moving back to New Jersey after briefly seeking the greener pastures (and substantially lower tax rates) of the Sunshine State (Phil Murphy said he received a personal phone call from Tepper, informing him about the additional $100 million+ in tax revenue headed to NJ), smug liberals on CNBC have been smirking about how wealthy financiers want to be where the talent is/simply can’t tolerate not having the opportunity to see three Andrew Llyod Weber musicals a week (though it’s not like anybody’s going to see a Broadway show right now).
While Manhattan remains the undisputed hedge fund capital, Florida, particularly South Florida and Miami, has seen a steady influx of capital and people over the past five years. Last fall, Carl Icahn announced plans to move his firm’s headquarters to Florida, offering employees generous severance packages if they opted not to follow the firm to Florida.
Now, Bloomberg reports that Elliott Management Corp., the investment fund run by Paul Singer, is taking its $41 billion AUM and moving it to West Palm Beach, a community best known to Americans as the former hunting grounds of Jeffrey Epstein.
The driving force behind the decision, apparently, is the fact that Singer’s co-chief investment officer and expected successor, Jon Pollock, owns a home near West Palm Beach and has been living there during the pandemic, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The now-permanent move by Pollock, as well as several other senior officials at the fund, played a big role, as Singer apparently delegates more day to day responsibilities to this crowd.
For his part, Singer will reportedly remain “in the northeast”, though it’s not exactly clear where, specifically.
The firm will maintain some office space in NYC, and it also plans to open office space in Greenwich, Conn.
As Bloomberg points out, Elliott isn’t alone in expanding its presence in South Florida. Ken Griffin’s Citadel plans to open an office in Miami next year, and $8 billion Balyasny Asset Management, another Chicago-based firm, is also opening office space in Florida, and will have space for 30 employees by the end of the year.
It appears most of Elliott’s employees are staying put, which suggests Paul Singer is simply trying to side-step the burgeoning trend of liberal states dabbling with ‘wealth tax’ plans to plug the gaping holes in their budget caused by COVID-19. For example, Griffin is leading a campaign against a wealth tax in Illinois. Jamie Dimon recently bashed a proposed wealth tax plan in NY being pushed by – who else? – AOC.
And with New Jersey and Connecticut looking into similar proposals, we doubt this will be the last ‘wealthy billionaire’ leaves for Florida/Texas/Nevada post we write in the coming months.
- Chaos In Nigeria After Soldiers Open Fire On Large Anti-Police Demonstration
Chaos In Nigeria After Soldiers Open Fire On Large Anti-Police Demonstration
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 19:20Late Tuesday night chaos broke out in the Nigerian capital of Lagos as demonstrators calling for an end to police brutality were reportedly fired upon by national soldiers or police attempting to clear the streets. At least one person was killed and one or more others were severely wounded, while dozens more were reported injured as the crowd of about 1,000 fled, according international reports.
Amnesty International initially reported fatalities among the protesters while citing “credible but disturbing evidence” that security forces were responsible. The standoff with security forces came during a curfew and as protesters attempted to erect a blockade.
It further comes a day after another ‘live fire’ incident may have resulted in injuries, and as authorities attempt a crackdown while imposing a 24-hour curfew. There’s been an estimated total of ten deaths during the recent wave of anti-police protests across multiple cities, in a situation the government says in spiraling out of control into a “monster”.
Protests in Lagos via AFP While there are conflicting accounts, eyewitnesses told Reuters of the scene: “More than 20 soldiers arrived at the toll gate in Lekki and opened fire,” resulting in at least two people shot.
The mass protests and clashes with police have been growing more intense after a little over two weeks ago a video surfaced and went viral purporting to show officers with an elite police task force beating and torturing a man.
The video purports to show the notorious tactics of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad, known as SARS, which has long been despised especially by Nigeria’s youth. Mostly young people have been seen in the streets demanding the permanent disbanding of the SARS unit, something the government has vowed to do. Lagos is also promising further reform efforts among police and security branches.
But Nigeria’s military is denying it was behind the latest shootings on protest crowds, dismissing it as “fake news” in official statements.
“They are shooting at them at Lekki toll gate.”
Witnesses say security forces opened fire on #EndSARS protesters gathered in defiance of a curfew in Lagos, Nigeria. pic.twitter.com/yfXWewWTkE
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 21, 2020
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President Muhammadu Buhari, meanwhile has downplayed the state security shootings while calling for calm and promising reform. Amid greater international media scrutiny US Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden weighed in.
“I urge President Buhari and the Nigerian military to cease the violent crackdown on protesters in Nigeria, which has already resulted in several deaths,” wrote Biden. “My heart goes out to all those who have lost a loved one in the violence. The United States must stand with Nigerians who are peacefully demonstrating for police reform and seeking an end to corruption in their democracy.”
This is Nigeria today
RT @cnbnewsgo: Nigerian soldiers open fire on unarmed protestors in Lagos, Nigeria. At least seven #EndSARS protestors have been shoot dead and several others seriously injured.#Genocide pic.twitter.com/boh0DgkCZc
— Jme (@JmeBBK) October 20, 2020
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Meanwhile Nigerian military and police officials have blamed most of the violence on the protesters themselves as well as what they’ve identified as armed gangs taking advantage of the chaos to unleash violence.
- California City Begins Handing Out Free Cash To "Address Inequalities For Black People"
California City Begins Handing Out Free Cash To “Address Inequalities For Black People”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 19:00Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,
The Southern California city of Compton is launching a pilot program that aims to provide a basic income to 800 of its low-income residents, with zero strings attached.
Dubbed the Compton Pledge, the guaranteed income program will begin distributing free cash to 800 residents of the city in Los Angeles County for a period of two years. Compton Mayor Aja Brown has said that the ambitious program is the largest of its kind in for any city in the U.S.
The majority Black and Latino city is just the latest in a growing list of cities across the country, and the world, that is experimenting with new ways to put money in residents’ hands give the grave economic calamity caused by the ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic.
“I recognized that there’s a need for additional income, especially with the pandemic resulting in record high numbers of unemployment throughout the entire country,” the mayor told the Los Angeles Times.
“This is a great opportunity to address inequalities for Black and brown people and also additional opportunities for upward mobility.”
The guaranteed income program is also meant to “challenge the racial and economic injustice plaguing both welfare programs and economic systems,” according to a statement released by the Compton Pledge on Monday.
“People in our community are going through tough times, and I know that guaranteed income could give people a moment to navigate their situation, and have some breathing room to go back to school, explore a new career path, spend time with their children, or improve their mental and emotional wellbeing,” Brown said in the statement.
“Ensuring all people are able to live with dignity is something we should all strive for in America.”
Roughly 1 in 5 residents of Compton live below the poverty line – roughly double that of the national average – according to census data. The plight of Compton residents has only been compounded by the ongoing health emergency, which has raised the city’s unemployment rate to 21.9 percent.
The Compton Pledge has already raised over $2.5 million in private donations through the Fund for Guaranteed Income, a charity headed by the family of L.A. Times owner and billionaire bioscientist and transplant surgeon Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong.
Under the program, randomly selected families from a vetted group of low-income residents will receive at least a few hundred dollars on a recurring basis along with tools helping to advise them on their finances. Parents and guardians may receive more, while anonymous researchers will track the spending habits and well-being of participants.
A representative board including nonprofit organizations like My Brother’s Keeper and the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA) will also advise the Compton Pledge on how best to reach communities on the margins.
The program is aiming to include a representative sample of 68 percent of Latino and 30 percent of Black residents in Compton, along with those typically left out of federal and state welfare programs, such as formerly incarcerated residents and undocumented immigrants.
The program isn’t the first of its kind in the Golden State, where opulent displays of wealth often exist side-by-side with extreme poverty.
In 2019, Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs launched the first guaranteed income program in the country, known as the Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration, which gave 125 Stockton residents a $500 payment for 18 months.
The concept of distributing free money to citizens without strings attached has gained popularity in recent times, due in no small part to the economic impact of the pandemic.
Political parties and figures both on the traditional left and the right have raised the demand for guaranteed income or Universal Basic Income (UBI), with some of its strongest proponents include tech oligarchs and venture capitalists like Peter Thiel, Marc Andreesen, and Jack Dorsey.
Supporters of the plan argue that inequality would be reduced by basic income and it would provide an added layer of financial security for certain people. Supporters of the plan, such as former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, also suggest that with jobs in myriad industries slated to be rendered obsolete by automation and computerization, a universal basic income is required to prevent a deeper humanitarian and financial crisis.
Critics on the left have suggested that basic income is a Trojan horse that would be a vehicle for dismantling what little remains of the welfare state, offering the “paying people for being alive” stipend in exchange for austerity and the destruction of social safety nets that protect the most vulnerable members of society and offer a small barrier to extreme inequality.
On the right, however, opponents have claimed that the idea is far too expensive and would dis-incentivize people from seeking work and would be tantamount to subsidizing poor people’s substance abuse habits or reckless spending on “temptation goods.”
However, decades of research has shown that most people on such programs continue to work after receiving the transfers, while those who work less spend more time with their families.
With many countries experiencing a free fall in jobs numbers – as well as sharply declining consumer demand and household spending – the idea of guaranteed basic income has gained popularity unseen since the idea saw a surge of interest following the 2008 financial crash.
In the South American nation of Colombia, politicians across the political spectrum have urged the government to introduce an Emergency Basic Income to mitigate the damage of the COVID-19 pandemic. The municipal government of Bogota under Green Party Mayor Claudia Lopez was the first city in the South American nation to offer basic income to vulnerable households struggling to feed themselves amid the lockdown. The plan also included integrating 581,000 poor households into the banking system, according to a press release from the City of Bogota.
While the Compton Pledge is beginning as a far more modest program, community advocates are hopeful that the program can be a success.
“Guaranteed income is an urgent and necessary strategy for addressing the economic realities of racial injustice,” said Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors.
Proponents also hope that this can become a trend that sparks a nationwide system of direct, recurring payments to vulnerable families.
“Guaranteed income will afford people the dignity of an income floor and agency to make choices for themselves,” said Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs.
“Poverty stems from a lack of cash, not a lack of character,” he added.
- US Oversees Unprecedented Preliminary Deal To Transport UAE Oil To Europe Via Southern Israel
US Oversees Unprecedented Preliminary Deal To Transport UAE Oil To Europe Via Southern Israel
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 18:40It didn’t take long for the historic US-brokered peace and ‘normalization’ of ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates to shift focus to a potential major oil pipeline project in the works.
Israel’s Haaretz newspaper reports, “In what could become one of the most significant deals to emerge since Israel and the United Arab Emirates normalized relations, the Israeli state-owned pipeline company Europe Asia Pipeline Company, or EAPC, said on Tuesday that it had signed a memorandum of understanding to store and transport oil and distillates from the UAE to Europe.”
Below is the EAPC route through southern Israel from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean port of Ashkelon. This is unprecedented considering that up until just months ago the Arab Gulf states and Israel were official enemies, as they had been for decades especially over the fate of Palestinians.
Haaretz reports further that the memorandum of understanding was signed in Abu Dhabi on Monday, in a ceremony attended by US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.
“This is a historic agreement that will increase cooperation between EAPC and regional and international players. Without a doubt, this agreement has great importance for the Israeli economy both economically and strategically, because it involves long-term joint investments,” EACP Chairman Erez Kalfon said.
The Saudi-owned media outlet based on Dubai, al-Arabiya, also confirmed the preliminary deal.
And Reuters cited an inside source who speculated it could be worth an estimated $700-$800 million in the coming years. The arrangement “is likely to increase the transferred quantities by tens of millions of tons per year,” the source said. Supplies could start being delivered via the Red Sea to Mediterranean route by early 2021.
Yesterday, the Israeli company EAPC (which operates the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline) signed a deal with the MED-RED consortium in the presence of the US Secretary of Treasury, Steven Mnuchin pic.twitter.com/mLczXV2q9j
— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) October 21, 2020
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Europe Asia Pipeline Co, which is jointly controlled by Israel’s government and UAE-based MED-RED Land Bridge plans to “deliver petroleum distillates originating in the Gulf through the EPAC pipeline and sell them to European customers,” according to Haaretz.
Specific details are being described as a tightly guarded secret, however, there’s speculation that the pipeline could eventually be extended across Saudi Arabia, also possibly as part of Washington’s desire to see normalized relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, which would be a monumental step.
The details of the deal are not clear, but some reports suggest the pipeline will be “extended to the UAE” (here from Times of Israel), which would mean crossing into Saudi Arabia pic.twitter.com/PkHYS5SK6k
— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) October 21, 2020
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The day after the signing of Monday’s historic MOU, the first official UAE delegation flew to Tel Aviv accompanied by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
The pipeline itself has for decades been highly secretive in terms of operations, as well as source of geopolitical conflict. The pipeline’s history is fascinating considering it started as a joint Israeli-Iranian venture, as unlikely as that sounds. As Bloomberg summarizes, it reaches back to the years of the US-backed Shah in Iran:
The Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline Co., as EAPC used to be called, was jointly owned by the Jewish state and Iran’s government. Tehran would ship some of its Europe-bound oil to Eilat and then pipe it to Ashkelon on the Mediterranean.
After Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, the nations became enemies. Yet for some years Israel still allowed Iranian oil to be sent through the pipeline in secret, including by Glencore Plc founder and sanctions-busting commodities trader Marc Rich.
Amazingly, it’s still unknown just what the pipeline has transported and sourcing in terms of operations over the past years. “The two countries have argued over the pipeline more recently, with Tehran wanting compensation after Israel took over its 50% stake. “Even today, information on what flows through the pipeline can be censored by Israel’s military,” continues Bloomberg.
It’s already being reported that a $3 billion Jerusalem-based fund which has US government involvement is getting behind the Israeli-UAE project.
It appears that for all the media hype surrounding the historic opening up of diplomatic relations between Arab Gulf states and Israel, at the end of the day it all comes back to oil, as has long been the story in the Middle East.
- Giuliani Responds To Borat Photo
Giuliani Responds To Borat Photo
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 18:20Update 1755ET: Following The Guardian’s full-court-press effort to distract from the disturbing details being exposed about Hunter Biden (and his father), the rest of the activist media jumped on the Giuliani-hand-down-his-pants/Borat story.
As the embarrassing story took on a mind of its own among social media and mainstream media types, the former New York Mayor has taken to Twitter to respond and clarify what exactly happened…
The Borat video is a complete fabrication. I was tucking in my shirt after taking off the recording equipment.
At no time before, during, or after the interview was I ever inappropriate. If Sacha Baron Cohen implies otherwise he is a stone-cold liar.
In fact, the NY Post today reports “it looks to me like an exaggeration through editing.”
As soon as I realized it was a set up I called the police, which has been noted in THR article on July 8th.
This is an effort to blunt my relentless exposure of the criminality and depravity of Joe Biden and his entire family.
Deadline Hollywood reports CAA had a distribution screening in September where there was no mention of the scene holding any importance.
We are preparing much bigger dumps off of the hard drive from hell, of which Joe Biden will be unable to defend or hide from. I have the receipts.
If this is all the Deep State has to try and distract from HunterGate, they have a problem (and so far have not denied any of the details that have been exposed).
And on the bright side, no Russians were blamed and at least he wasn’t masturbating on a work Zoom call.
* * *
As TheMindUnleashed’s John Vibes detailed earlier, Rudy Giuliani is among the high profile figures who were pranked for Sasha Baron Cohen’s new Borat sequel, and so far his encounter is the most embarrassing. Cohen and Maria Bakalova, the actress who portrays Borat’s daughter in the film, brought Giuliani into their prank by posing as conservative TV journalists.
They conducted an interview with Giuliani where they were extremely agreeable and after the interview, Bakalova went back to a nearby hotel room with him for a drink. The room was rigged with hidden cameras, which recorded Giuliani apparently untucking his shirt and reaching into his pants.
Once he began to reach into his pants, Borat runs into the room and shouts, “She’s 15. She’s too old for you.”
Just after the incident, Giuliani called New York City police to report the incident, claiming that he was the victim of a scam or a set up.
Giuliani described the encounter to the New York Post, saying that:
“This guy comes running in, wearing a crazy, what I would say was a pink transgender outfit. It was a pink bikini, with lace, underneath a translucent mesh top, it looked absurd. He had the beard, bare legs, and wasn’t what I would call distractingly attractive. This person comes in yelling and screaming, and I thought this must be a scam or a shakedown, so I reported it to the police. He then ran away.”
Giuliani said that he later realized that it was Sacha Baron Cohen and was relieved that he didn’t fall for their prank, although he seems to be the only one that thinks that.
“I thought about all the people he previously fooled and I felt good about myself because he didn’t get me,” he said.
Of course, the encounter made Giuliani look very creepy, but no laws were technically broken because Bakalova is 24-years-old and initiated the encounter. They were also interrupted before Giuliani got the chance to do anything illegal.
The plot of the new film revolves around Borat’s quest to give his daughter to a powerful US politician as a gift. As with the last film, Borat encounters a variety of different Americans in his travels, and their interactions are intended to illustrate a sort of culture shock that he is experiencing, while also satirizing the cultures of both America and Kazakstan.
However, due to the overwhelming success of the first film, Borat’s face was very easy to recognize for most of the people who he attempted to prank, so he needed to get creative and don disguises so his targets would feel more comfortable and let their guard down.
In one scene, he wears a very realistic Donald Trump disguise and crashes the American Conservative Union’s Conservative Political Action Conference, while Mike Pence is giving a speech.
In the scene, which is shown in the trailer, Cohen is seen running through the conservative convention wearing the Trump mask, and carrying an unconscious woman over his shoulder. He bursts into the room where Pence is speaking and shouts “Micheal Paenis I brought that girl or you.” Mike Pence looked directly into the crowd, glaring at Cohen.
The new film will be available to stream for Amazon Prime subscribers on Oct. 23.
- Daily Briefing – October 21, 2020
Daily Briefing – October 21, 2020
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 18:10Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to discuss the art of portfolio construction and his current outlook on markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on why investors whose sole focus is on returns fail and how to structure a portfolio that properly accounts for risk. He also breaks down how he gets exposure in real estate as well as how he’s thinking about the implications of the Fed backstopping the credit markets. Dillian also covers his thoughts on Bitcoin, time horizons, U.S. election outcomes, and trend following. In the intro, Real VIsion’s Nick Correa share the latest CEO confidence numbers and the next big, potential SPAC deal between Michael Bloomberg and Bill Ackman. - Hollywood-Backed Quibi Headed For Shutdown After Squandering Nearly $2BN In 6 Months
Hollywood-Backed Quibi Headed For Shutdown After Squandering Nearly $2BN In 6 Months
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 18:00It looks like we can officially add Quibi to the growing list of unicorns that have been slaughtered by the coronavirus pandemic.
According to the Wall Street Journal’s latest report on the doomed Hollywood-backed Netflix competitor, Quibi’s management has accepted the fact that it will likely need to shut down, and return capital to investors, following a difficult reckoning with a team of expensive consultants.
The last time we checked in on Quibi, co-founders Meg Whitman and Jeffrey Katzenberg (the project was originally conceived by the former Walt Diseny Studios head and Dreamworks Mastermind, and he then brought Meg Whitman on to “execute” his vision for a mobile-only Netflix), Katzenberg had reluctantly ‘fessed up to the board that Quibi was in serious trouble. Quibi raised nearly $2 billion, and in just six months, it hasn’t brought in anything close to a sustainable revenue stream.
To try and chart a path forward, Quibi made the decision a few weeks back to bring on an expensive team of consultants to put together a list of options. That list has beepooo
Previous reports about Quibi described a company where Whitman and Katzenberg, two indisputable titans in the tech industry, surrounded themselves with ‘yes men’. In meetings, staffers were afraid to challenge their bosses, which is how ideas like being ‘mobile exclusive’ came about.
When Quibi premiered in April, critics lazily expected it to rack up a sizable following, due to its pedigree. But users quickly became frustrated when they realized they couldn’t stream Quibi’s content on their TVs. At this point, Quibi was targeting a market – the American commuter – that had greatly diminished in size.
To be sure, Quibi’s lineup got surprisingly creative at points, like with “Dummy”, a short series about a millennial woman who befriends her boyfriend’s sex doll.
A scene from “Dummy”
As this reality sunk in, critics and viewers alike were confronting another issue: for all the hundreds of millions of dollars Quibi had sunk into programming, the company had failed to produce anything even close to resembling a hit.
Katzenberg and Whitman are expected to host a call with the company’s backers on Wednesday where they could make an announcement about whether Quibi will be shuttered, or whether the company might persue a deal. While Quibi has tried to market its “library of content” as an attractive selling point, the company is also currently mired in a lawsuit with a much smaller technology firm called Eko, which claims Quibi stole its mobile-streaming technology from Eko.
While Katzenberg has taken to blaming COVID-19 for Quibi’s failure, we believe that boomer arrogance and egotism played just as big a role. This is plainly evident in one of Whitman’s first interviews with CNBC on the topic early last year.
- Californians Could Be Forced To Work Remotely As Governments Everywhere Capitalize On COVID
Californians Could Be Forced To Work Remotely As Governments Everywhere Capitalize On COVID
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 17:40Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,
“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” Those were the words of Saul Alinsky, author of Rules for Radicals, a book in which he describes Lucifer as the “very first radical.”
Later, Rahm Emmanuel, Obama’s Chief of Staff who wanted to mandate national civilian service and who donated his time during the Gulf War to repair damaged Israeli tanks as well as oversaw a cesspit torture state as mayor of Chicago, would paraphrase Alinsky when, during the 2008 financial crash, he stated, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. I mean, it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”
Fast forward to 2020, COVID-19 is now the “crisis” that shouldn’t be wasted
As the COVID-19 restrictions began in earnest in March, 2020, Emmanuel once again reprised his paraphrase which has now become more of a slogan for him than Alinsky. “Never allow a crisis to go to waste,” Emanuel said. “Start planning for the future. This has to be the last pandemic that creates an economic depression. We’re going to have more pandemics, but this has to be the last economic depression.”
Emmanuel needn’t worry. This crisis, manufactured or not, is not going to waste. In fact, COVID is proving to be the biggest gift to totalitarian governments, pharmaceutical companies, and major corporations we have seen since 9/11. Indeed, for these institutions, Christmas came early this year.
Most major corporations have been able to hold on through months of idiotic and fascistic shutdowns and lockdowns (a prison term, it should be noted). Small and independently-run businesses have been disappearing by the trainload.
Big corporations thrive, while people are left hopeless, stressed, and considering suicide
Increased poverty allows for increased control as well as for the direction of broken hopeless people into action desired by governments and Deep State color revolutions. Increased medical surveillance under the guise of “contact tracing” is giving rise to a surveillance state at the personal level foreseen by researchers long ago. (Here’s some information on surviving extreme poverty from a person who has been there.)
Now, forced mask-wearing and the elimination of normal human contact has resulted in a bleak non-human “new normal” that is seeing suicide skyrocket and personal relationships dissolve. Stress, depression, and hopelessness are on the rise as well. The mental health of the populace is decreasing dramatically. We will never get back to the normal that everyone is hoping for.
Many people are holding on to the false hope of “maybe next year will be better,” the truth is that, unless something miraculous happens, it won’t be. In fact, it may be worse. Food shortages are not coming, they are here. External and internal refugees are leaving war-ravaged areas as well as areas currently being ravaged by natural disasters. They are also leaving states run by extreme leftist politicians to states that promise a few slivers of freedom and normalcy. But, with the wave of “refugees,” there will also come a wave of change to the culture of the places they arrive.
Shadowy much-quoted “experts” have stated that the “new normal” is here to stay
Case in point, a new provision approved by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission in the Bay Area is now requiring employees to work from home at least three days a week even after the alleged pandemic.
The reason? Climate Change.
The provision states that forcing these workers to work from home instead of commuting via cars or public transport will reduce “Greenhouse Gas Emissions” and thus reduce the “carbon footprint” of the area. The goals of greenhouse gas reduction were set and agreed to previously, no doubt following the mandates set by the United Nations and international foundations.
According to the Mail Online,
A new proposal could require Californians to work remotely three days a week – even after the COVID-19 pandemic – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to aid in environmental efforts.
A number of Bay Area residents, including employees at large tech firms, were concerned over a new proposal approved by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission on Wednesday.
The controversial proposal would effectively ensure that sizable, office-based companies kept 60 per cent of their workers at home on any given workday to curb climate change.
‘Given the changes in travel patterns during the coronavirus pandemic, there was strong support for bolder policies on this front in the Final Blueprint, including a mandate for office-based employers,’ the proposal read.
‘To ensure this strategy achieves equity goals, a complementary strategy to expand internet access in underserved communities was added to the Economy Element as well.’
…
‘There is an opportunity to do things that could not have been done in the past,’ said Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, a commission member and proposal supporter, per NBC News.
Does that last little bit sound familiar to you? In the past, tyrants in the United States had to at least hide the fact that they were capitalizing on a crisis, even if it was imagined. Lip service had to be given to freedom and “democracy” (even though the United States isn’t a democracy, it’s a Republic).
Your way of life, stressful as it was, has been changed forever.
There is no intent to ever give it back. In fact, the stressful days of commuting, endlessly yammering coworkers, and fluorescent lighting, when it is compared to the miserable existence you will suffer through in the near future, something you will think of fondly.
That is, unless you choose to do something about it.
Don’t comply out of fear or shame.
Don’t comply at all.
If you want to live free
Just.
Live.
Free.
- Joe Biden Insists Son Never Profited Off Family Name; Except Hunter And Ex-President Of Poland Say He Did
Joe Biden Insists Son Never Profited Off Family Name; Except Hunter And Ex-President Of Poland Say He Did
Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/21/2020 – 17:25In a Tuesday interview, former Vice President Joe Biden claimed that there was no basis “whatsoever” to claims that his son, Hunter, profited off the family name.
When asked local Wisconsin TV station WISN if there was any legitimacy to comments by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) that Hunter “together with other Biden family members, profited off the Biden name,” the former Vice President replied “None whatsoever,” adding (without finishing the sentence) “This is the same garbage Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s henchman…“
“It’s the last ditch effort in this desperate campaign to smear me and my family.”
Except, Hunter admitted he profited off his family name!
“If your last name wasn’t Biden, do you think you would’ve been asked to be on the board of Burisma?” asked ABC News‘ Amy Robach in an October 15, 2019 interview.
“I don’t know. I don’t know. Probably not, in retrospect,” said Hunter. “I don’t think that there’s a lot of things that would have happened in my life if my last name wasn’t Biden,” he added, “because my dad was Vice President of the United States.“
“There’s literally nothing, as a young man or as a full-grown adult that — my father in some way hasn’t had influence over.”
What’s more, the former President of Poland and Burisma board member Aleksander Kwasniewski said last November that Hunter was picked to sit on the company’s board because of his name.
“I understand that if someone asks me to be part of some project it’s not only because I’m so good, it’s also because I am Kwasniewski and I am a former president of Poland. … Being Biden is not bad. It’s a good name,” he said.
Let’s also not glaze over the fact that both Joe and Hunter said that Joe had ‘no knowledge’ of Hunter’s international business dealings, while recently released emails from Hunter’s laptop prove that Hunter ‘introduced’ Joe to a top Burisma executive – a meeting Biden’s camp says never happened. Joe also met with a CCP-linked delegation of Chinese investors arranged by Hunter and his business partners, according to emails released by imprisoned ex-Hunter business associate, Bevan Cooney.
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