Today’s News 23rd April 2021

• "Agricultural Disaster" – Frost Blast Decimates French Vineyards, May Slash Total Wine Output By Third 
  “Agricultural Disaster” – Frost Blast Decimates French Vineyards, May Slash Total Wine Output By Third 

  Earlier this month, French farmers fought mother nature in their attempt to prevent frost from wiping out their crops. It appears their attempts have failed as the damage is extensive and could wipe out nearly a third of French wine output for the year. 

  In early April, French farmers scrambled to light-controlled fires across their vineyards to stave off frost. Euronews document these efforts in a series of stunning photographs. 

  A farmer burns a bale of straw in his vineyard to protect grapevines from frost. This picture was taken on April 7 at the heart of the Vouvray vineyard in Touraine, France.

  

  Winegrowers from the Domaine Daniel Etienne Defaix vineyard in Chablis lit fires across their fields. 

  

  Smoke rises across multiple vineyards in Touraine, France. 

  

  As reported by The Guardian, the French government declared the frost an “agricultural disaster” and planned to provide financial support to farmers. 

  Several thousand hectares of farming land, including Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, and the Rhône Valley, were heavily impacted by the frost. 

  Jérôme Despey, the secretary-general of the FNSEA farming union, said this year’s frost could be one of the worst in decades. He said it might be more damaging than the ones experienced in 1991, 1997, and 2003.

  Agriculture minister Julien Denormandie said the frost blast was a “completely exceptional situation,” resulting in “substantial losses.”

  Exact losses are unknown at this time. But fresh estimates this week by the farm office FranceAgriMer warns at least a third of the country’s 2021 wine production could be affected, reported Reuters. 

  Ygor Gibelind of FranceAgriMer said frost damages would be more apparent by the end of the month. He estimates wine output could decrease by 28% to 32% below average volumes of recent years. 

  “This (frost) was something exceptional, both in the fact it spread so far south and that is was so widespread,” Gibelind said, adding that the damage was exacerbated by warmer weather early in the growing season and accelerated plant growth. 

  Gibelind said Burgundy is the worst-hit area where some farmers lost half their crop. The second worst area is in Languedoc, with about 40% crop loss, then Aquitaine that encompasses Bordeaux at some 30%. 

  A decline in French wine output would certainly suggest bottles from the country are about to experience a price surge as supply constraints become realized. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/23/2021 – 02:45

• Faith Leaders, Businessmen, Political Leaders Urge African Development, Countering China's Belt-And-Road
  Faith Leaders, Businessmen, Political Leaders Urge African Development, Countering China’s Belt-And-Road

  Authored by Douglas Burton via The Epoch Times,

  Former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has endorsed an effort to jumpstart the economies of Africa through a bottom-up revolution of African entrepreneurs. That revolution involves countering China’s efforts to dominate the continent while articulating a Christian approach to Africa’s development.

  

  Pompeo gave the keynote speech April 13 at a summit of CEOs and African political leaders called “Equity for Africa” at the Business School of Liberty University in Virginia.

  “Greater development improves security for all of us,” Pompeo told the gathering of 160, which included American CEOs and business owners from 14 African nations.

  “Terrorist thugs for a long time have taken advantage of less developed countries and used them as safe havens and inflicted enormous harm and enormous destruction of economic prosperity,” he told the gathering.

  “As we can increase economic growth and the capacity for new businesses to provide wealth and opportunity for people throughout Africa, America will be a better place,” Pompeo said.

  Crediting the phrase “America First” as a moral principle that nations could replicate by doing their utmost to bring security and prosperity to their own citizens, Pompeo noted that “when they did that, they could counter a narrative in Africa that comes from the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party.”

  Belt and Road

  China’s trillion-dollar footprint in Africa known as the Belt and Road Initiative cast a shadow over the three-day gathering.

  Launched in 2013, Belt and Road projects may be found in 42 African countries. China is the largest funder of infrastructure projects in Africa, giving financing to 20 percent of all projects and building one-third.

  Chinese companies are building roads, railways, and power plants that African nations have lacked for decades, but with the risk that key national assets can be lost through loan defaults.

  “It’s a fact that African businesses are inundated with Chinese money,” Ted Yoho, a former congressman from Florida and a panelist at the summit told The Epoch Times.

  To compete with China’s dominant investing in the continent, the U.S. Congress with Yoho’s involvement passed “the Build Act” in late 2018, which set aside $60 billion for American companies to use as financing for collaborative projects in the developing world.

  “African countries should be wary of authoritarian regimes,” Pompeo said. “We know the absence of religious freedom, the absence of dignity, that comes from tyrannical regimes that intend to spread their tyranny all across the world.”

  “It should not be the case that African nations must be dependent on these totalitarian nations for their vital infrastructure,” he said.

  

  Dean of Liberty University School of Business Dave Brat (L); President, Redeemed Christian Bible College and Seminary, Sayo Ajiboye (C); President, Global Strategic Alliance, Kevin Jessip (R) at the Equity for Africa Summit at Liberty University in Lynchburg Va., on April 14, 2021. (Ellie Richardson)

  Boom Predicted

  Equity for Africa marked an ambitious outreach in thought leadership for Liberty University, founded by the late Baptist Televangelist Jerry Falwell, and until his resignation last year, by Jerry Falwell, Jr., and for its business school headed by David Brat, a former Richmond, Virginia congressmen.

  Brat was credited with planning the event with creative contributions from many Evangelical advisors, including Kevin Jessip, founder of Global Strategic Alliance and a bevy of African expatriates in the United States.

  Pompeo’s speech coincided with his assumption of a fellowship chair at the University’s Standing for Freedom Center.

  “We are here to articulate a national plan for family, development, and economic transformation by meeting the felt needs of the people of each nation,” Jessip told The Epoch Times, warning that China’s vast infrastructure building is attempting to control and contain the peoples of Africa for the long term.

  The approach of a “global strategic alliance” by contrast is to enrich African citizens through a boom of entrepreneurism. “The Christian approach means releasing the people and allowing them to control their own destiny,” he told The Epoch Times.

  Of the 75 panelists that presented their expertise in the course of two full days of meetings, virtually all asserted their belief that the continent of Africa will bloom as the place of the world’s next economic miracle in the next 20 years.

  They included hedge fund manager Rod D. Martin, a Florida GOP power player who told The Epoch Times, “I fully believe that Africa is going to be the place of the next economic boom, just as East Asia was in the 1980s.”

  Jessip, an evangelical activist who helped organize a massive Prayer Assembly called the “Return,” on the Washington Mall on Sept. 26, 2020, believes that Africa and Western Christian faithful are entering a so-called Kairos moment, a Greek word which means “a proper or opportune time for action.”

  As Western nations settle into near zero population growth, the African nations are facing a population explosion, offering the world a vast resource of skilled and low-skilled labor for industry.

  Africa’s population is expected to double by 2050. Nigeria, the most populous nation, is forecast to have by that year 400 million people, overtaking the United States as the world’s third-most populous country.

  

  H.E. Yemi Osinbajo, Vice President of Nigeria, speaking to the Equity for Africa Summit via live video from Nigeria at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. On April 14, 2021. (Ellie Richardson)

  Economic Pitches

  Several African heads of state or lawmakers gave economic pitches by zoom calls to the conference including Nigeria’s Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, who touted Nigeria’s young resilient population, its reserves of oil and “five-year tax holidays for investments in eligible sectors.”

  Nigeria has multiple contracts with Chinese companies to build infrastructure, which is natural, he pointed out, because developing countries have a great need for infrastructure development.”

  Osinbajo, a law professor and an ordained pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God, also spoke to the opportunities that Western companies have passed over in Africa in recent years.

  “There are fewer investments coming from the West to Africa, which is why the Chinese have taken advantage of that gap and stepped in with favorable investments,” he said.

  That is about to change, according to the investors and political activists at Equity Africa.

  “God’s about to do a sovereign move,” Jessip told The Epoch Times. “He is going to do His own thing. The purpose of the Global Strategic Alliance is to move the body of Christ to move with Him,” he said.

  “We are casting our bread upon the waters,” Jessip said citing Ecclesiastes 11: “Cast your bread upon the waters, for you will find it after many days.”

  In Jessip’s telling, the America outreach to African entrepreneurs is being returned by a steady stream of African preachers coming to the North American continent.

  Africa holds at least 600 million Christians devoted to their faith, and many are eager to bring the fire of faith back to the United States, which now registers fewer than 50 percent of its population as Christian believers.

  “Whereas Africa used to be the mission continent, the United States is the mission country today,” Jessip told the conference, adding: “African preachers are coming to the United States. The bread is coming back, which is good, because we need it.”

  Conference panelists included well known names in the conservative movement: Jack Brewer, former NFL star and Africa investor; Herschel Walker, former NFL star and business owner; Steve Green, CEO of Hobby Lobby and co-founder of the Museum of the Bible in Washington, D.C.; and Christopher Miller, former acting secretary of defense, among others.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/23/2021 – 02:00

• How Much Ruin Do We Have Left?
  How Much Ruin Do We Have Left?

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson. op-ed via The Epoch Times,

  As Americans know from their own illustrious history, any nation’s well-being hinges on only a few factors. Its prosperity, freedom, and overall stability depend on its constitutional and political stability. A secure currency and financial order are also essential, as is a strong military.

  

  Perhaps most important is a first-rate inductive educational system. Of course, nothing is possible without general social calm (often dependent on a reverence for the past) and secure borders.

  The ability to produce or easily acquire food, fuel, and key natural resources ensures a nation’s independence and autonomy.

  Unfortunately, in the last few months, all of those centuries-old reasons to be confident in American strength and resiliency have been put into doubt.

  The challenge is not just enemies abroad such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The greater problem lies within us, as we erode the inherited and acquired strengths that made us singular, both materially and spiritually.

  We are now witnessing a concentrated effort to alter the constitutional order and centuries of custom and tradition. The Left believes that’s the only way it can retain its transient power, given the unpopularity of most of its current agenda.

  A nation’s institutions are its bedrock. Yet, the Electoral College and the Constitution’s emphasis on individual states establishing voting laws are under assault.

  Already gone is the 176-year-old tradition of a pivotal November Election Day. The 152-year-old nine-member Supreme Court, the 184-year-old Senate filibuster, and the 62-year-old idea of a 50-state union are all being targeted by the New Democratic Party.

  Given that the last presidential election was hotly contested, that Democratic congressional majorities are minuscule, and that the Supreme Court is unsympathetic, the Left seeks to change the rules to stay in power rather than adjust its unpopular policies.

  We are running up vast multitrillion-dollar annual deficits as we race to a $30 trillion national debt.

  More worrisome, our elites justify the spending with sophistries about debt being irrelevant, or inflation and stagflation being relics of the past—even as prices are now soaring.

  After costly strategic stagnation in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, our military is now turning on its own.

  Some of the politicized top brass seem more worried about the politics of their own soldiers than the dangers of foreign militaries.

  Our public schools and colleges are systematically downplaying meritocratic curricula and substituting ideological, racial, and cultural litmus tests.

  Admissions now often hinge as much on race, gender, and ethnicity as on quantifiable achievement. The First Amendment and Fifth Amendment, covering free speech and due process, have vanished from most college campuses.

  The year 2020 saw the most destructive riots in American history. Yet very few of the looters, arsonists, and rioters were ever indicted. Most were never arrested.

  Whether government arrests violent protesters or those assembling en masse and breaking quarantines is contingent on their ideology.

  Private monopolies that control most of the written communications of Americans censor expression entirely on the basis of politics.

  Modern Jacobins seek to erase our founding in 1776. Mobs tear down statues and deface monuments with impunity. There is no consistent rhyme or reason to why the names of schools, institutions, and streets are erased overnight—except the relative dangers of a nihilistic electronic mob.

  Our officials at the Justice Department and the United Nations either will not or cannot defend the history and reputation of their own homeland.

  Record natural gas and oil production has been giving the public affordable heating, cooling, and transportation. Self-sufficiency in energy made the United States exempt from worries over Middle Eastern wars and foreign oil embargos. The more we produced our own natural gas, the cleaner became our air and the smaller our collective carbon footprint.

  Yet in just 100 days, energy prices have soared. The Joe Biden administration has canceled the Keystone XL pipeline and limited energy leasing on federal lands, threatening to all but end our gas and oil independence in just a few years.

  In the drought-stricken West, key irrigation water is still being diverted from farms to the ocean. Billions of dollars in farm aid are doled out on the basis of race. And promised new regulations and estate taxes may well kill off what’s left of family farms.

  Adam Smith said of successful nations that they have a lot of “ruin” in them. He meant that a dissolute, leisured, and ahistorical generation has to waste a lot of its generous inherited wealth before it runs out.

  We are learning how much will soon be left of what our ancestors bequeathed. And the rest of the world is watching—some with glee, others with horror.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 23:45

• Fake COVID Vaccines Discovered In Mexico And Poland 
  Fake COVID Vaccines Discovered In Mexico And Poland 

  While scammers have been selling fake or forged COVID-19 vaccination cards, another scam has been discovered involving counterfeit versions of the vaccine. 

  WSJ reports fake versions of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech have been found in Mexico and Poland. 

  In Mexico, a man who claimed to be a biotech expert injected upwards of 80 people with the fake vaccine – charging $1,000 per dose. WSJ said none of the people had been physically harmed by the injection. 

  Dr. Manuel de la O, the health secretary of Nuevo León state in Northeastern Mexico, said fake vials of the vaccine were found in what appeared to be beer coolers. The counterfeit vaccines had “different lot numbers than those sent to the state and a wrong expiration date,” the health secretary said. 

  

  Reports of counterfeit vaccines were also found in Poland, where authorities seized a stockpile from a man’s apartment. The substance found inside the vials was likely an anti-wrinkle treatment, Pfizer said.

  “Everybody on the planet needs it. Many are desperate for it,” Lev Kubiak, Pfizer’s world head of security, told WSJ. “We have a very limited supply, a supply that will increase as we ramp up and other companies enter the vaccine space. In the interim, there is a perfect opportunity for criminals.”

  Pfizer is also working with law enforcement on counterfeit vaccine cases like those recently uncovered in Mexico and Poland. Johnson & Johnson and Moderna are other top producers of COVID vaccines. They, too, are working with authorities to monitor fake vaccine distribution. 

  Across the world, dozens of websites have been shut down for fraudulently claiming to sell vaccines. Some of the websites appeared to be seeking personal information for identity fraud schemes than actually injecting people with vaccines. 

  In other countries, including China and South Africa, authorities seized thousands of doses of counterfeit vaccines, according to Interpol. 

  The National Intellectual Property Rights Coordination Center, an investigative arm of the US Department of Homeland Security, has also been investigating fraud related to the virus pandemic globally. Investigators have removed 30 websites and seized 74 web domains, according to IPR officials. So far, no counterfeit vaccines have been found on US soil. 

  Countries that are struggling to obtain vaccines appear to be the most prone to fraudulent schemes. 

  “Whenever you see this mismatch between demand and supply in certain areas, there are people who are willing to fill that difference with counterfeits,” said Tony Pelli, a consultant with BSI Group who concentrates on drug security. “For new drugs, it’s usually just a matter of time before you see people trying to counterfeit them.”

  What appears evident is that low-income countries struggling to obtain vaccines are ripe for fraud. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 23:25

• Taiwan: The New Geopolitical And Economic Flash Point
  Taiwan: The New Geopolitical And Economic Flash Point

  Authored by Ethan Yang via The American Institute for Economic Research,

  The island nation of Taiwan may be in the spotlight today for handling Covid-19 without a lockdown but it’s about to become one of the most contentious geopolitical flashpoints of the decade. On April 17, 2021, The South China Morning Post reported that,

  “The United States and Japan called for “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” in a joint statement released after a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga who reaffirmed their commitment to counter China’s “intimidation” in the East and South China seas in wide-ranging talks.

  It is the first time since 1969 that the top leaders of the two countries mentioned Taiwan in a joint statement, a move that is set to infuriate Beijing.”

  The move did in fact attract hostility from the Chinese as Nikkei Asia wrote,

  “Hours after Japan and the U.S. named Taiwan in a leader’s summit statement for the first time in more than five decades, China hit back at the communique that also highlighted the two allies’ concerns over Hong Kong and human rights issues in Xinjiang.

  “These matters bear on China’s fundamental interests and allow no interference. We express strong concern and firm opposition to relevant comments in the Joint Leaders’ Statement,” a spokesperson at the Chinese embassy said in a statement on Saturday.

  Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang belong to “China’s internal affairs,” the statement said.”

  Xinjiang is a region in Northwest China where the Chinese Communist Party is reported to be engaging in horrendous activities such as ethnic cleansing, religious persecution, and slave labor. Hong Kong, which came under Chinese control in 1997, was promised to have its democratic norms respected in a slow reintegration period set to end in 2047. That promise has now been shattered as the CCP unleashed a brutal crackdown in response to the Hong Kong Protests starting in 2019. China’s treatment of Hong Kong subsequently eliminated any remaining intentions amongst the independent Taiwanese to even consider a peaceful unification with the People’s Republic of China.

  Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, who is a staunch advocate of Taiwanese independence and national identity, was recently reelected with the greatest popular landslide in the island’s history. It has become abundantly clear to everyone, especially the CCP, that China’s unmoving ambition to annex the island can now only be accomplished with military force. This is frightening not only because of the damage this development will have for democracy, freedom, and economic prosperity not just in Asia but around the world, but the inevitable military conflict with the US and its allies will be catastrophic. Dennis Roy notes in The Diplomat that,

  “Among these assessments, none carried more weight than that of Admiral Philip Davidson, chief of the U.S. military’s Indo-Pacific Command. Davidson opined before a U.S. Senate Committee in February that China might try to seize Taiwan by military means “in the next six years.”

  Roy also notes that Chinese military assets have been conducting wargames with alarming frequency and Chinese officials have openly stated they are rehearsing for an invasion of Taiwan. Reuters even noted that recently the Chinese air force has intruded on Taiwanese airspace so frequently that Taiwan stopped scrambling jets to intercept in order to conserve resources. Instead, they are now tracking Chinese jets with ground-based missiles. 

  The Strategic Importance of Taiwan 

  The United States is bound by law to support the ongoing security of Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act, which is a bipartisan piece of legislation that has been instrumental in not only supporting the island nation but core US interests in the Asia-Pacific region. The strong bonds of US-Taiwan friendship are as self-serving for the US as it has been for the Taiwanese. Setting aside Taiwan’s fame as a bastion of freedom and prosperity, preventing China from controlling Taiwan is a core strategic concern for US security interests. China knows this as well. 

  Whoever controls Taiwan, controls the Asia-Pacific. A crucial economic and strategic region in the world. 

  Joseph Bosco explains Taiwan’s strategic importance in University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Insight when he writes,

  “Drawing on historical experience, the question is whether Taiwan would be as valuable a strategic asset to a potential aggressor in Asia today as it was for Japan in the 1940s.”  

  During World War II Japan maintained control of Taiwan as a colony. From Taiwan, it was able to launch military pushes into the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia while also servicing forces in Korea and China. That is because of Taiwan’s important position in the center of what is known as the First Island Chain which stretches from Japan down to South East Asia and Australia. This island chain then gives way to the Second Island Chain further east into the Pacific Ocean towards Hawaii. Controlling Taiwan would allow the Chinese military to cut the Asia-Pacific in half and conduct hostilities against major US strategic allies such as South Korea, Japan in the north, the ASEAN countries and Australia in the south. It can then start to expand its naval operations further into the Pacific Ocean much like Imperial Japan did during World War II. 

  Taiwan’s deepwater ports would also give the Chinese navy the ability to not only dominate the Pacific Ocean and its trade routes but also exercise more leverage over the South China Sea. The South China Sea saw almost $3.37 trillion worth of global trade pass through in 2016 and 40 percent of the global natural gas trade in 2017. The current status quo maintained by the United States and its allies is one of a rules-based international order dedicated to human rights, trade, and cooperation. A Chinese-occupied Taiwan would allow the Chinese to follow through with their vision of turning the South China Sea, a region with numerous countries laying claim, into a “Chinese Lake.”

  Chinese primacy in the region would plunge Asia as well as the world further into authoritarian darkness. China would be able to not only make more territorial demands to more countries but it can threaten to disrupt trade and free movement to any country in the world that questions its authoritarian practices. 

  Economic Importance

  Although Taiwan may be an island the size of Maryland, it’s one of the richest countries in the world with a GDP (PPP) of $1.3 trillion, an estimated 2021 nominal GDP of over $759 billion, and a population of 23 million. For comparison, that’s a population and GDP (PPP) similar to Australia and a nominal GDP just behind Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. Taiwan is also a critical trade partner for the US, being our 10th largest goods trading partner and 6th largest consumer of US agricultural exports. 

  Even more important, however, is Taiwan’s place in the global economy. When the Portuguese discovered the island in the 16th century they gave it a name that is still used today: Formosa. That translates to “beautiful isle” to which Taiwan was and certainly is a scenic tourist destination. However, today it is also one of the most advanced producers of semiconductors in the world and a technology hub more generally. Semiconductors are essential for producing everything from data centers, cars, smartphones and other pieces of technology that are increasingly becoming more important to the basic functioning of society. At the moment, there is currently a global shortage of semiconductors which has only been exacerbated by Covid-19 lockdowns and the accelerated transition to a digital society. 

  Furthermore, Taiwan has taken large steps in positioning itself as the Silicon Valley of Asia with massive investments in scientific research and startup-friendly infrastructure. Taiwan’s geographic location as a stepping stone to the rest of Asia and its relatively high economic freedom make this vision a decent possibility. As Taiwan emerges from Covid-19 with an economy relatively unscathed by lockdowns, its economic importance will likely only grow as it becomes a more popular spot for investment. That also makes it an even greater prize for the Chinese and an asset to the free world. 

  Taiwan as a free and independent country makes it an active agent in making the world a more prosperous and technologically advanced place. Taiwan under Chinese control gives the CCP even more economic leverage over any country that speaks out against its authoritarian model. Not to mention that it will have removed one of the major alternatives to Chinese technology, which has been known to function as an arm of the CCP’s surveillance state. 

  Key Takeaways

  With the escalating tensions between Taiwan, China, and everyone in between, it is clear that once Covid-19 fades out of the picture, Taiwan will be one of the next global tension points. This seems even more likely as the Biden administration announces its intentions to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and with US-China tensions at an all-time high. During the Obama administration, the US foreign policy establishment announced a “pivot to Asia,” and the reasons cannot be more clear. 

  Although Taiwan has always been an important US foreign policy interest for decades, current events will likely make it the most important. The island has been caught in the middle of a perfect storm of global geopolitical tension, radical economic change, and an existential ideological struggle between liberty and authoritarianism. The stakes could not be higher, as one false move could spark a devastating armed conflict between global superpowers. Failure to act sufficiently will jeopardize the future of freedom and prosperity not just in Asia but around the world. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 23:05

• New York City Targets 100% Renewable Electricity By 2025
  New York City Targets 100% Renewable Electricity By 2025

  Mayor Bill de Blasio – having solved all other problems in the city related to the pandemic and the recent outburst of violent crime – has shifted his focus making sure the city is going to be 100% run on renewable electricity by 2025. 

  Yesterday, as if the cost of living wasn’t skyrocketing enough for NYC citizens, the city announced that it had signed “a letter of intent in partnership with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) committing the City to pursuing a joint purchase of large-scale renewable source of electricity delivered to the city, which could include Canadian hydropower to the extent selected or its equivalent,” the city said in a statement.

  The statement continued: “This joint purchase, which will power City government operations with 100 percent renewable electricity by 2025, will provide additional value to disadvantaged and energy burdened communities as well as all residents of the State, and be a dramatic step forward as part of the City’s comprehensive climate mitigation strategy to ensure the City makes a just transition to a clean energy economy.”

  De Blasio commented: “Clean energy is directly linked to a fair recovery” (whatever that means), continuing, “It’s about investing in our future and our frontline communities. Today we’re taking major step forward to secure renewable energy for New York City and power our government with 100 percent renewables by 2025.”

  

  Doreen M. Harris, President and CEO, NYSERDA commented: “NYSERDA’s Tier 4 solicitation is designed to increase the amount of renewable energy delivered into New York City and direct significant benefits to those in the state’s most disadvantaged communities. We welcome the opportunity to share in the cost-effective procurement that will be realized due to the substantial level of competitive interest seen by the initial private sector response. We appreciate the City’s focus to align with the state’s work in reducing carbon emissions from its operations and recognizing the important value a joint purchase would bring to all New Yorkers.”

  The release reads:

  The letter of intent lays out the parameters the City will take into consideration prior to entering into a long-term agreement to purchase Clean Energy Standard Renewable Energy Certificates (“RECs”) associated with the delivery of renewable energy into Zone J of the New York Control Area. 

  The City intends to purchase a sufficient quantity of RECs to secure 100% of its energy needs from renewable resources while preserving the ability to engage in deep energy retrofits, other energy efficiency measures and the deployment of renewable distributed energy resources.

  The release says that the program “has set ambitious and aggressive goals for confronting our climate crisis, ending the age of fossil fuels, and securing a livable climate for the next generation”.

  Ben Furnas, Director of the Mayor’s Office of Climate and Sustainability, said: “This is the electricity of the future, and it can’t come soon enough. With this commitment to vastly increase the supply of renewable electricity to New York City, we will clean our air, correct injustice, and race towards a future beyond fossil fuels. Thank you to NYSERDA for their partnership as we work together to build a safer, cleaner, fairer energy system for New York.”

  While we’re hardly power generation experts, all we have to say is: good luck running New York City off of hydroelectric power from Canada at efficient prices.

  We find it way more likely that this will just be another reason for current New Yorkers to eventually head out of the city, and down to Florida, once costs from this incredible “project” eventually materialize – that is, if this letter of intent winds up materializing at all to begin with. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 22:45

• How To Negotiate A Significant Discount On College Tuition
  How To Negotiate A Significant Discount On College Tuition

  Submitted by Paul Hill via EducateToCareer.org,

  College tuitions are negotiable. For the past 20 years, colleges have discreetly offered discounts, when pressed or motivated to attract certain students. Competition among colleges in recent years has increased the practice of discounting significantly, and the size of discounts is greater than ever. Covid has of course, accelerated the trend. To maintain enrollment numbers, public, state run colleges have increased discounting through what is referred to as ‘institutional aid’ while many private non-profit colleges are now discounting tuitions by more than 50%.

  

  Tuitions at state colleges can run up to $20,000, while private colleges are topping out at $80,000. Full price is also referred to as ‘sticker price’, though less than 10% of families ever pay that full amount. Various forms of ‘aid’ are available and can reduce tuition very significantly, so every parent should absolutely find out what forms of aid will be available to them. More on that later. Scholarships are over-rated, not nearly as accessible as many families are led to believe, and when they are available, it’s usually in the form of a one-time benefit. You can’t count on those monies for 4, 5 or 6 years.

  And then there is the negotiated amount of ‘institutional aid’. Every college has an institutional aid budget, and it literally is a discount plan that they can apply with significant discretion. If a parent doesn’t ask, they won’t get it. Schools dole out institutional aid when they need to top up their enrollment numbers, basically fill seats, no differently than an airline.

  Understanding college tuition models

  College admissions processes and tuition structures have been referred to as byzantine, cryptic, unseemly, deceptive, and mind-numbingly confusing. It probably won’t make you feel any better to know that in 2019, the U. S. Department of Justice sued the National Association of College Admissions Counselors for anticompetitive practices. In essence, colleges were conspiring together to boost tuitions, lovely huh? Better to know than not.

  The mechanics of the pricing – it’s crucial to understand that when you are in the market for a college education – you won’t start with a low base price and then add on additional costs. With college tuitions the pricing structure is inverted; everyone starts at full price – the ‘sticker price’ – and then tries to figure out what aid, scholarships, grants and so forth might be available to reduce their total costs. Basically, you start at full price and then the onus is on you to figure out what aid and discounts might be available to bring the price down.

  What is the underlying discount methodology?

  At the most fundamental level – poor, smart kids pay the lowest tuitions, while rich, ‘less smart’ kids pay the highest tuition. Let’s work through the discount structure by way of example. Assume that the Jones family is planning to send Billy to college. The Jones, an upper income family have about 10 schools they’re contemplating for Billy, one of them being University of California, Irvine (UCI). The sticker price for UCI (in state) students is about $16,500, and has an average SAT score of 1280. Billy scored 1200 on his SAT’s. It’s unlikely that UCI will accept Billy, but be assured that if they do, his folks will be paying $16,500 for the privilege. Conversely, Susie is a poor student with excellent grades (SAT of 1350). UCI will probably take her and she will pay less than $5,000, due to a variety of federal, state grants, and institutional grants aid. Next, we’ll get our hands dirty and explain what happens for those who reside in between those two extremes.

  The Department of Education provides some financial aid to most students who are planning to enroll in college. Financial aid comes in two forms, need and merit. Need-based aid is crucial in making college affordable to low-income students. As a point of reference, if you’re making over $100k annually, you will rarely qualify for this form of need-based aid. Merit aid is just as it sounds – if you’ve made the grades, you’ll possibly get the aid. It should be obvious though, at top colleges, every kid has excellent grades. Who provides the aid? Need-based aid comes from federal, state and college grants. Merit aid is generally provided by the college and is typically referred to as “institutional aid”.

  How does one apply for aid? Need-based aid is obtained by filling out the FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid), which is also a mandatory application for all colleges. The FAFSA leans heavily on families’ tax filings – and be forewarned that the volume of financial, household and familial information they require is quite surprising. (Financial advisors generally charge $400 to $1,000 to complete and submit the FAFSA) The good news about the FAFSA is that when you submit it electronically (which is easy to do) every college that you consider applying to will have automatic access to your application.

  Then you have scholarships and they are accessed by submitting the College Student Scholarship (CSS) profile. The likelihood of getting scholarship monies is over-rated. However, once you’ve filled out the FAFSA, it is worth repeating the abbreviated process of filling out the CSS application. Scholarships are typically awarded on a case-by-case basis by a specific college and are generally awarded for a single year.

  Let’s now get into the mix of students that colleges generally hope to achieve. This will help you to understand where your kid might reside in the ‘grid’ at a specific school, and of course, how much you’ll pay for your kid to fit in. Through the mathematical analysis of millions of recently admitted students, we have ascertained that there are two significant factors in determining which students are accepted, and what their Expected Family Contribution will be: 1- grade/test scores, 2- family finances. There is a matrix which reflects the inter-relationship between these factors, and it is oriented towards maximizing revenue for the college. To meet their financial, academic and diversity goals, most colleges endeavor to have a 10/80/10 distribution of students:

  • 10% of the student body should be very high academic achievers and the college will give significant institutional aid to these students in order to attract them to their college. This pool gives the college academic credibility.

  • 80% of the student body should be “within range” academically, and come from an affluent family. Recall that institutional aid comes out of a college’s own budget and it wants to give up as little of that money as possible. It’s easy for an admissions rep to say to a wealthy family of a kid with middling grades, “You are not unique relative to our applicant pool, and we reserve the majority of our aid for exceptional and needy students.” The salespersons in the admissions office are very well versed in this process and they will happily point to a thick pile of applications on their desk when mentioning, “You are not that special. We’ll admit you, and as a good faith gesture, here’s a little sprinkling of institutional aid.”

  • 10% of the student body is thought of as the “vanity pool.” These are students who the school admits for the purpose of meeting diversity requirements – they are generally low income, minorities, and disadvantaged students. They will receive substantial institutional aid.

  There are of course additional factors which can come into play, such as legacy points (parents, grandparents are alumni). However, colleges are businesses and the majority are under the most significant financial pressure in the history of higher ed, and they need to realize as much revenue as possible.

  Prepare for the negotiations – be factually informed

  Here is a free program that will show you the range of tuitions students paid last year at every major U. S. college College Tuition Negotiator  These are data points that will enable you to sit with an admissions rep and negotiate from a fully informed position. You can literally ask an admissions officer, “If your average net tuition last year was XYZ, why are you asking me to pay $5,000 over XYZ?” An accompaniment to that program is the College Admissions Probability program. This will provide you with a personalized probability of acceptance, and an estimate of what your expected family contribution EFC will be for a given college. As a non-profit, Educate To Career offers many other programs to assist with the college to career planning process.

  Institutional aid and the negotiation process (Now the fun starts!)

  When a school accepts a student, they’ll send an acceptance letter with an offer of aid. The aid will include federal and state aid (which will be the same, regardless of college), as well as the “institutional aid” which is a college-specific grant. As we said above, the institutional aid is coming out of the college’s budget; it can be significant, and it is almost always negotiable. The remaining balance when you deduct all aid from the sticker price is the (EFC). The EFC is a technical-sounding term for “What we’re hoping to get you to pay.” Federal and state aid are a fixed amount and non-negotiable. The more institutional aid you receive, the lower your EFC will be. Because you did your homework and you know what discounts were given out and tuitions paid at the colleges you’re considering, you are in a very strong negotiating position. And we can tell you from extensive experience that if you have 5 schools you’re dealing with in the manner we describe above, 2 to 3 of them will likely increase your institutional aid from where they started, by many $thousands.

  Key concepts in negotiating with a college over institutional aid:

  • Have at least three schools that your kid is absolutely ok with attending. And make sure that at least one of the colleges is a state school so they know you are price sensitive.

  • Let the admissions officer at each college know that you’re looking at other similar colleges. They know exactly who they compete with for students. This is a subtle way of serving notice.

  • Ask the admissions officer what the lowest net price that a “similarly situated” student (same grades, same family finances) is paying. Compare what they tell you with what you know from our programs.

  • When they’ve given you their best offer, ask for additional institutional aid.

  • Know that in years 3, 4, 5 (and 6 if necessary) colleges dramatically reduce their aid. Try to lock aid in up front, though that is difficult.

  Some additional info that will save you $$ and headaches

  Here is some additional information that you need to know when preparing for the college-selection process, and that is the effect of attempting to enroll a child in a “reach school.” Many parents are fanatical about getting their kid into the most elite college possible. A reach school is a college in which the child does not qualify academically. They are basically out of the SAT range. Having a kid in an elite school sounds great at cocktail parties. However, chasing reach schools is expensive and dangerous:

  • It’s expensive, simply because the school knows you want them and they don’t need you. These schools send out 1,500 acceptance letters when they only have 500 open seats. They want to have a few hundred students who they have great leverage over and will pay full price, or very close to full price.

  • Students fail, a lot. The five-year graduation rate at four-year colleges is barely over 50%. Who fails? The students in the bottom quartile of the class.

  The reach school is very profitable for colleges. It’s an expensive disaster for most families.

  Financial positioning – This is the exercise of structuring and presenting your family finances and assets in a manner that reduces your tuition liability. The family’s primary residence is exempt from their net-worth calculation. Retirement assets are also not counted in the calculation of EFC, but other assets: savings, 529 accounts, CDs, money market accounts, investment real estate, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, commodities, are all included in the EFC calculation. If you wish to engage in structuring your finances in a way that reduces your tuition, consult an expert regarding what is allowable in the current year, as well as a tax lawyer.

  Elite private colleges – These are reach schools for literally 98% of students who are enrolling in college. Some of the elites that have significant endowments and will give full rides to exceptional students. When you say your kid is a genius, star athlete, plays the cello and should be accepted by all of the Ivies, the elite colleges have an acceptance rate of less than 10%, and your kid’s application is typical of Ivy applicants.

  Private colleges (2nd and 3rd tier/SAT scores of 1,200 to 1,400) – are struggling financially due to declining enrollments in recent years. Our data show that these colleges are discounting tuitions significantly in recent years to attract new students. This is especially true with the Covid environment.

  Summarizing all of this

  The short story is that colleges are negotiating tuitions now, more than ever before. They’re under financial pressure and they need your revenue. If you feel charitable, know that you’ve already paid them once with your tax dollars. They won’t decline a second helping though. Don’t be shy when you’re asking and then pushing for a better price. Being informed with real data points regarding what other students have paid and using that as a basis for asking puts the onus on them to justify their offer sheet. And give yourself options – have at least 5 schools on your short list and you are very likely to receive offers that will meet your kids’ educational needs and match your budget.

  *  *  *

  This article has been submitted by Educate To Career (ETC) co-founders, Paul Hill and Michael Havis. ETC is a nonprofit, specializing in providing college planning programs and data to over 1,000,000 families, financial advisors, and campus career centers each year. We are the leading vendor of actuarial analysis of college outcomes data to student lenders. Our charter is to help young people get an affordable education, leading to a real job, with no student debt.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 22:25

• New Study Shows "Long Haul" COVID-19 Can Kill Patients Months After Infection
  New Study Shows “Long Haul” COVID-19 Can Kill Patients Months After Infection

  Across the US, tens of thousands of people who were infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have struggled with a buffet of debilitating symptoms that made it impossible for them to work or live normal lives. Many of those who were eligible sought disability as baffled scientists tried to determine the cause of the “long hauler” syndrome, as it has come to be known.

  Media outlets like the Washington Post and New York Times have chronicled the experiences of individuals struggling with “long hauler” syndrome months after they first contracted COVID-19. Some patients noted that, while they more or less felt fine, their sense of smell and taste had yet to return. Others complained that a persistent “brain fog” had settled over them. With doctors offering few answers, many sufferers turned to online communities to pool their experiences.

  

  Now, the latest research published in the journal Nature shows that “long haulers” are at much higher risk of dying from their protracted symptoms.

  How much higher? The data showed survivors had a 59% increased risk of dying within six months after contracting the SARS-CoV-2 virus, researchers reported Thursday in the journal Nature. This excess mortality translates into about 8 extra deaths per 1,000 patients. That’s worsening the pandemic’s hidden toll amid growing recognition that many patients require readmission, and some die, weeks after the viral infection abates.

  “When we are looking at the acute phase, we’re only pretty much looking at the tip of the iceberg,” said Ziyad Al-Aly, chief of the research and development service at the St. Louis VA Medical Center in Missouri, who led the study, and spoke to Bloomberg in an interview. “We’re starting to see a little bit beneath that iceberg, and it’s really alarming.”

  Al-Aly and his colleagues documented the cascade of debilitating symptoms that plague long haulers even months after their diagnosis: from blood clots, stroke, diabetes and breathing difficulties to heart, liver and kidney damage, depression, anxiety and memory loss.

  Globally, more than 143 million people have tested positive for COVID-19, and more than 3 million have died from the disease. As for how many become long haulers, some other studies have put the number at roughly 10%, according to Bloomberg. But nobody really knows, and those who pass away months later from the condition typically aren’t counted among COVID-19 deaths.

  Adding to the host of risk factors, long-haulers required increased use of various medications, including antidepressants and opioids. “We worry about potential spikes in suicide or potential spikes in overdose of opioids,” Al-Aly told Bloomberg in an interview.

  Look at the numbers from a broader perspective, the researchers found that patients with COVID-19 who survived hospitalization had a 51% higher risk of dying compared with 13,997 influenza patients who also had been hospitalized. Al-Aly, who is also an assistant professor of medicine at the Washington University School of Medicine, said he hoped the research would provide a roadmap to inform health-system planning and care strategies to mitigate chronic ill health among Covid-19 survivors, especially in the U.S. “Let’s not act surprised two years down the road, when people start committing suicide,” he said. “We did not do very well preparing and dealing with Covid. Let’s not make that mistake a second time.”

  Read the full study below:

  s41586-021-03553-9_reference

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 22:05

• How Empires End
  How Empires End

  Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

  “Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.”

  – Thomas Jefferson

  Histories are generally written by academics. They, quite naturally, tend to focus on the main events: the wars and the struggles between leaders and their opponents (both external and internal). Whilst these are interesting stories to read, academics, by their very nature, often overlook the underlying causes for an empire’s decline.

  Today, as in any era, most people are primarily interested in the “news”—the daily information regarding the world’s political leaders and their struggles with one another to obtain, retain, and expand their power. When the history is written about the era we are passing through, it will reflect, in large measure, a rehash of the news. As the media of the day tend to overlook the fact that present events are merely symptoms of an overall decline, so historians tend to focus on major events, rather than the “slow operations” that have been the underlying causes.

  

  The Persian Empire

  When, as a boy, I was “educated” about the decline and fall of the Persian Empire, I learned of the final takeover by Alexander the Great but was never told that, in its decline, Persian taxes became heavier and more oppressive, leading to economic depression and revolts, which, in turn led to even heavier taxes and increased repression. Increasingly, kings hoarded gold and silver, keeping it out of circulation from the community. This hamstrung the market, as monetary circulation was insufficient to conduct business. By the time Alexander came along, Persia, weakened by warfare and internal economic strife, was a shell of an empire and was relatively easy to defeat.

  The Tang Dynasty

  Back then, I also learned that the Tang Dynasty ended as a result of the increased power amongst the eunuchs, battles with fanzhen separatists, and finally, peasants’ revolts. True enough, but I was not taught that the dynasty’s expansion-based warfare demanded increases in taxation, which led to the revolts. Continued warfare necessitated increasing monetary and land extortion by the eunuchs, resulting in an abrupt decrease in food output and further taxes. Finally, as economic deterioration and oppression of the citizenry worsened, citizens left the area entirely for more promise elsewhere.

  Is there a pattern here? Let’s have a more detailed look—at another empire.

  The Spanish Empire

  In 1556, Philip II of Spain inherited what was regarded as Europe’s most wealthy nation, with no apparent economic problems. Yet, by 1598, Spain was bankrupt. How was this possible?

  Spain was doing well but sought to become a major power. To achieve this, Philip needed more tax dollars. Beginning in 1561, the existing servicio tax was regularised, and the crusada tax, the excusado tax, and the millones tax were all added by 1590.

  Over a period of 39 years (between 1559 and 1598) taxes increased by 430%. Although the elite of the day were exempt from taxation (the elite of today are not officially exempt), the average citizen was taxed to the point that both business expansion and public purchasing diminished dramatically. Wages did not keep pace with the resultant inflation. The price of goods rose 400%, causing a price revolution and a tax revolution.

  Although Spain enjoyed a flood of gold and silver from the Americas at this time, the increased wealth went straight into Philip’s war efforts. However, the 100,000 troops were soon failing to return sufficient spoils to Philip to pay for their forays abroad.

  In a final effort to float the doomed empire, Philip issued government bonds, which provided immediate cash but created tremendous debt that, presumably, would need to be repaid one day. (The debt grew to 8.8 times GDP.)

  Spain declared bankruptcy. Trade slipped to other countries. The military, fighting on three fronts, went unpaid, and military aspirations collapsed.

  It is important to note that, even as the empire was collapsing, Philip did not suspend warfare. He did not back off on taxation. Like leaders before and since, he instead stubbornly increased his autocracy as the empire slid into collapse.

  Present-Day Empires

  Again, the events above are not taught to schoolchildren as being of key importance in the decline of empires, even though they are remarkably consistent with the decline of other empires and what we are seeing today. The very same events occur, falling like dominoes, more or less in order, in any empire, in any age:

  1. The reach of government leaders habitually exceeds their grasp.

  2. Dramatic expansion (generally through warfare) is undertaken without a clear plan as to how that expansion is to be financed.

  3. The population is overtaxed as the bills for expansion become due, without consideration as to whether the population can afford increased taxation.

  4. Heavy taxation causes investment by the private sector to diminish, and the economy begins to decline.

  5. Costs of goods rise, without wages keeping pace.

  6. Tax revenue declines as the economy declines (due to excessive taxation). Taxes are increased again, in order to top up government revenues.

  7. In spite of all the above, government leaders personally hoard as much as they can, further limiting the circulation of wealth in the business community.

  8. Governments issue bonds and otherwise borrow to continue expansion, with no plan as to repayment.

  9. Dramatic authoritarian control is instituted to assure that the public continues to comply with demands, even if those demands cannot be met by the public.

  10. Economic and social collapse occurs, often marked by unrest and riots, the collapse of the economy, and the exit of those who are productive.

  11. In this final period, the empire turns on itself, treating its people as the enemy.

  The above review suggests that if our schoolbooks stressed the underlying causes of empire collapse, rather than the names of famous generals and the dates of famous battles, we might be better educated and be less likely to repeat the same mistakes.

  Unfortunately, this is unlikely. Chances are, future leaders will be just as uninterested in learning from history as past leaders. They will create empires, then destroy them.

  Even the most informative histories of empire decline, such as The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Edward Gibbon, will not be of interest to the leaders of empires. They will believe that they are above history and that they, uniquely, will succeed.

  If there is any value in learning from the above, it is the understanding that leaders will not be dissuaded from their aspirations. They will continue to charge ahead, both literally and figuratively, regardless of objections and revolts from the citizenry.

  Once an empire has reached stage eight above, it never reverses. It is a “dead empire walking” and only awaits the painful playing-out of the final three stages. At that point, it is foolhardy in the extreme to remain and “wait it out” in the hope that the decline will somehow reverse. At that point, the wiser choice might be to follow the cue of the Chinese, the Romans, and others, who instead chose to quietly exit for greener pastures elsewhere.

  *  *  *

  The US government is overextending itself by interfering in every corner of the globe. It’s all financed by massive amounts of money printing. However, the next financial crisis could end the whole charade soon. The truth is, we’re on the cusp of a global economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. That’s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released a guide that explains what could come next and what you can do about it.. Click here to download the PDF now.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 21:45

• Goldman Says "No Surprise" In Biden Cap Gains Proposal, Sees Congress Settling On 28% Tax Rate
  Goldman Says “No Surprise” In Biden Cap Gains Proposal, Sees Congress Settling On 28% Tax Rate

  Today the market freaked out when Bloomberg reported that the Biden Administration will propose to tax capital gains at the top ordinary income tax rate (39.6%, or 43.4% when the existing 3.8% tax on net investment income tax is added).

  Well, according to Goldman, this is nothing more than the latest pipe dream trial balloon from progressives, one which won’t actually take place and instead has been floated to set the negotiation “ask”, with Goldman expecting that “Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.” As such there are no actual “surprises” in the proposal which has been floated in this exact format previously, and while it remains unclear when the tax rate increase would be effective, the bank’s economists “think it is unlikely to apply to gains realized before May, and an increase effective Jan. 1, 2022 is more likely.”

  Here is the full take from Goldman’s Alec Phillips

  1.Bloomberg has reported that the Biden Administration will propose to raise the federal capital gains tax rate to 39.6%, also the top marginal income tax rate under President Biden’s proposal. In addition to 3.8% tax on net investment income that Congress established in 2009, the combined rate would be 43.4%. We had expected the President to propose this as part of his “American Families Plan” and the proposal comes as no surprise. This proposal would apply to taxpayers with annual incomes over $1 million, and would likely also apply to qualified dividends, which are currently taxed at the same rate as capital gains. We note that the Biden campaign also proposed eliminating the step-up in basis on inherited assets, which would result in much larger taxable gains on those assets once sold.

  2. We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase. While it is possible that Congress might pass the proposal in its entirety, we think a moderated version is more likely in light of the razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. At 43.4%, long-term capital gains would be taxed at the highest rate in the more than 100 years since Congress established the income tax. A 28% rate looks most likely, in our view, as it is roughly halfway between the current rate and Biden’s likely proposal. This is also the rate that President Reagan and a Democratic House settled on a few decades ago when raising the tax from 20%.

  3. The issue will likely remain in flux over the next several months. We expect President Biden to discuss the issue among many other topics when he addresses a joint session of Congress on April 28. By early May, the Biden Administration might also release its full fiscal year 2022 budget submission to Congress, which would provide more details on tax proposals including capital gains. However, the timing of this release remains unclear. In the interim, comments from centrist Senate Democrats, such as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.),could clarify where key swing voters might come out on the issue.

  4. It is unclear when the higher rate would be effective, but we see three main options.

  • First, Congress has occasionally made tax policies effective as of the date when the bill is introduced in the House of Representatives. This would likely be no earlier than May.
  • A second option would be to make the higher tax rate effective for gains realized after the bill is enacted into law, which we think will be sometime between July and September.
  • The third option would be an increase effective on January 1, 2022. We note that the last time Congress legislated an increase in the rate, the policy became law in October 1986 but the increase did not take effect until January 1987.

  While a retroactive increase cannot be ruled out entirely, we believe it is very unlikely that it would apply to gains realized before May 2021 (at earliest).

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 21:25

• Texas Ended Lockdowns & Mask Mandates; Now Locked-Down States Are Where COVID Is Growing Most
  Texas Ended Lockdowns & Mask Mandates; Now Locked-Down States Are Where COVID Is Growing Most

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  Early last month, Texas governor Greg Abbott announced he would end the state’s mask mandate and allow most businesses to function at 100 percent capacity.

  The response from the corporate media and the Left was predictable. California governor Gavin Newsom declared the move “absolutely reckless.” Beto O’Rourke called the GOP a “cult of death.” Joe Biden called the move “Neanderthal thinking.” Keith Olbermann insisted, “Texas has decided to join the side of the virus” and suggested Texans shouldn’t be allowed to take the covid vaccine. Vanity Fair ran an article with the title “Republican Governors Celebrate COVID Anniversary with Bold Plan to Kill Another 500,000 Americans.”

  Other states have followed in Texas’s wake, and Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia are now all states where covid restrictions range from weak to nonexistent.

  Georgia and Florida, of course, are both notable for ending lockdowns and restriction much earlier than many other states. And in those cases as well, the state governments were criticized for their policies, which were said to be reckless and sure to lead to unprecedented death. Georgia’s policy was denounced as an experiment in “human sacrifice.”

  Yet in recent weeks, these predictions about Texas’s fate have proven to be spectacularly wrong. Moreover, many of the states with the worst growth in covid cases—and the worst track records in overall death counts—have been states that have had some of the harshest lockdowns. The failure of the lockdown narrative in this case has been so overwhelming that last week, when asked about the Texas situation, Anthony Fauci could only suggest a few unconvincing lines about how maybe Texans are voluntarily wearing masks and locking down more strenuously than people in other states. In Fauci’s weak-sauce explanation we see a narrative that simply fails to explain the actual facts of the matter. 

  Texas vs. Michigan

  The Texas situation is just one piece of a state-by-state picture that is devastating for the lockdowns-save-lives narrative.

  For example, let’s look at covid case numbers as of April 20.

  Case numbers are a favorite metric for advocates of stay-at-home orders, business closures, mask mandates, and repressive measures in the name of disease control.

  In Texas, the total new cases (seven-day moving average) on April 20 was 3,004. That comes out to approximately 103 per million.

  Now, let’s look at Michigan, where a variety of strict mask mandates and partial lockdowns continue. Restaurant capacity remains at 50 percent, and the state continues to issue edicts about how many people one is allowed to have over for dinner.

  In Michigan, the seven-day moving average for new infections as of April 20 was 790 per million – nearly eight times worse than Texas.

  

  By the logic of lockdown advocates, states with harsh lockdowns should have far fewer cases and less growth in cases.

  

  This, however, is most certainly not the case. In New Jersey, for example, where lockdowns have been long and harsh, case growth is nearly four times what it is in Texas. And then there are Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Maine, and New York, all of which have new case growth rates of more than double what’s going on Texas.

  Indeed, the only state with notably lax covid policies that’s in the top ten of case growth is Florida, which nonetheless is experiencing growth rates that are slower than in states run by lockdown fetishists like Andrew Cuomo and Phil Murphy.

  Moreover, Florida’s covid-19 overall outbreak has been far less deadly than those in the states that embraced lockdowns long and hard. New Jersey, for example, has the worst covid death rate in the nation at 2,838 per million as of April 20. Right behind are New York and Massachusetts with total deaths per million at 2,672 and 2,537, respectively.

  Florida, on the other hand, is twenty-eighth in the nation in terms of covid deaths, at 1,608. Texas has total deaths per million at 1,721.

  

  In other words, Florida isn’t likely to catch up to New York or New Jersey any time soon, and it’s certainly not going to soon catch up with Michigan, which is leaving other states in the dust in terms of case growth. For those who are scared to death of covid, they’d be better off in Florida or Texas or Georgia than in the states that have long embraced lockdowns and claim to be “following the science.”

  So how can this be explained?

  The lockdown advocates don’t seem to have an explanation at all.

  Last week, Anthony Fauci, head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) struggled to come up with an explanation as he testified to Congress.

  In previous weeks, Fauci tended to rely on the old tried-and-true claim that if we only wait two to four more weeks, cases will explode wherever covid restrictions are lessened or eliminated. Lockdown advocates tried this for months after Georgia ended its stay-at-home order, although Georgia consistently performed better than many states that continued their lockdowns.

  But now that we’re six weeks out from the end of Texas’s mask mandate and partial lockdowns, Fauci could offer no plausible explanation. Rather, when pressed on the matter by Representative Jim Jordan, Fauci insisted that what really matters is compliance rather than the existence of mask mandates and lockdown mandates:

  There’s a difference between lockdown and the people obeying the lockdown…. You know you could have a situation where they say, “We’re going to lock down,” and yet you have people doing exactly what they want—

  Jordan asked if this explains the situation in Michigan and New Jersey (and other states with quickly growing covid case rates). Fauci then claimed he couldn’t hear the question, and Jordan was cut off by the committee chairman.

  No one who is familiar with the situation in states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia, however, would find it plausible that the spread of covid has been lessened in those areas by more militant use of masks and social distancing. Fauci’s testimony was clearly just a case of a government “expert” grasping about for an explanation.

  But don’t expect Fauci and his supporters to give up on insisting that New York and Michigan are doing “the right thing” while Texas and Florida are embracing “human sacrifice” as a part of a “death cult.” 

  The actual numbers paint a very different picture, and even casual observers can now see that the old narrative was very, very wrong.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 21:05

• "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet: The Digital Yuan Can Be Turned Off Like A Light Switch"
  “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet: The Digital Yuan Can Be Turned Off Like A Light Switch”

  Two weeks ago, we reported that one of the most remarkable “features” of the brand new and soon to be unrolled digital Yuan, which should not be confused with any account-based currencies or commercial bank, private or unbackstopped digital currencies…

  

  … is that it will come with an expiration date. As the WSJ reported, “the money itself is programmable. Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump start.”

  That’s just the start.

  While China’s digital yuan will have an uphill climb in seeking to dethrone the dollar as a global reserve currency – despite Beijing’s protests that it has no such ambitions – as it’s an electronic version of a currency nobody wants (for now), the new currency will allow Beijing to weaponize its currency response to its every growing roster of trade partners. As Bloomberg details, instead of challenging U.S. dollar dominance and neutralizing sanctions, “the digital yuan appears potentially more geopolitically significant as leverage over multinational companies and governments that want access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers. Since China has the ability to monitor transactions involving the digital currency, it may be easier to retaliate against anyone who rebuffs Beijing on sensitive issues like Taiwan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong.“

  “If you think that the United States has a lot of power through our Treasury sanctions authorities, you ain’t seen nothing yet,” Matt Pottinger, former U.S. deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration, said last week at a hearing of the government-backed U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “That currency can be turned off like a light switch.”

  As Michael Every summarizes in his Tuesday Global Daily, “good luck to multinationals heartily agreeing that decoupling is unwanted, as they try to straddle the US, and its growing thicket of USD sanctions wrapped around a human rights foreign policy focus, and China, with its Panopticon e-CNY that can be turned off to ensure US sanctions and human rights foreign policy have no power over it.” 

  Indeed, as Bloomberg confirms, so far China has mostly resisted hitting foreign firms in response to U.S. actions on companies like Huawei, holding off on releasing an “unreliable entity list” designed to punish anyone who damages national security. Any move to cut off access to the digital yuan would carry similarly high stakes, potentially prompting foreign investors to pack up and leave.

  But, as the report notes, Beijing has recently gone after such major multinationals like H&M for statements on human-rights issues, even while government officials have been careful to avoid directly endorsing a boycott. In a Weibo post last month, the Communist Party Youth League declared: “Want to make money in China while spreading false rumors and boycotting Xinjiang cotton? Wishful thinking!”

  There’s more: widespread adoption of the digital yuan – also known as the e-CNY – could give China’s central bank more data on financial transactions than the big tech giants, allowing the Communist Party to both strengthen its grip on power and fine-tune policies to bolster the economy. While cryptos seek to disintermediate the state from monetary transactions, a digital yuan would do the opposite and give the PBOC even more sway and minute control over every single transaction, while obliterating monetary anonymity entirely.

  While that level of control may boost growth in the world’s second-biggest economy, it also risks spooking companies and governments already wary of China’s track record on intellectual property rights, economic coercion and rule of law.

  So, while many have said that the US has a nuclear option in its escalating feud with China in the form of selective cancellation of Treasurys held by China (whether it will do so is a different matter entirely), China will soon have its own nuclear option.

  Yet said option may well backfire: while President Xi has called for greater self-sufficiency in key technologies like advanced computer chips, such a financial decoupling from the U.S. would only hurt China’s economy and potentially leave the Communist Party more exposed to destabilizing attacks, according to BBG. After Xi effectively ended Hong Kong’s autonomy last year with a sweeping national security law, the U.S. refrained from cutting off the territory’s ability to access U.S. dollars due to the potential devastation to the global financial system.

  China’s state-endorsed boycott of H&M shows “great commercial risk” for companies that use the digital yuan, Yaya Fanusie, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing. If foreign merchants had to use the e-CNY, he said in a separate email, the government could prohibit transactions with H&M wallets and the store could disappear from digital yuan apps.

  “This is the other side of the coin — Beijing not as a sanctions evader, but more empowered to enforce its own financial muscle,” said Fanusie, who has written extensively on how central bank digital assets may impact U.S. financial sanctions. “China’s digital currency is as much about data as it is about money,” he added. Foreign firms that use the digital yuan “might end up handing over to the Chinese government lots of real-time data that it could not access efficiently through conventional banking technology.”

  Ironically, it is China’s desire to have total monetary control that may prevent the continues adoption of its currency at the international level: as Bloomberg notes, China’s ability to see every transaction may make it difficult for foreign banks to use the digital yuan and still comply with confidentiality rules in their home countries, according to Emily Jin, a research assistant at the Center for a New American Security. Alternatively, the currency might appeal to some similarly ruthless, despotic, socialist regimes that prioritize control over privacy protection.

  “They might find it easier to convince governments more authoritarian in their leaning that it helps monitor elicit activities or stop them quickly or stop them before they happen,” Jin said. “They aren’t going to market it to everyone.”

  That’s right: if the e-yuan is proven to be a success, the US will rush to roll out its own digital dollar…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 20:45

• Income Transfer Schemes: US Versus China – Which Country Is In The Worst Shape?
  Income Transfer Schemes: US Versus China – Which Country Is In The Worst Shape?

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  Governments take money from here and distributes it there. Michael Pettis discusses difference between China, the US, Japan and Europe in a series of Tweets.

  

  China’s Aging Demographics

  Consider the following series of Tweets by Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets.

  1. China had great demographics between the 1970s and until about a few years ago, when the working share of the population surged from the mid-50s (below the global average) to the low 70s (well above the global average).

  2. Now that the working share of the population is set to decline quite rapidly, mainly because of a surge in retirees, this should put upward pressure on household savings, in which case the extent of implicit and explicit income transfers to ordinary households needed to…

  3. rebalance demand towards consumption must be even greater. Because these transfers must ultimately be funded by liquidating government assets, in the end they cannot help but represent a significant shift in the distribution of political power.

  Demographics and Redistribution Question

  

  Pettis Reply

  1. The extent and direction of the transfers are different, Mish, so I’d argue that the political implications are likely to be different, but one way or another we should expect political changes. You can’t shift income without affecting the distribution of power.

  2. The needed income transfers in the US and Europe are much lower than in China, and they mostly should involve transfers from the very rich to workers and the middle classes, rather than from government to households, as in China.

  3. I think Japan is somewhere in the middle, and my understanding is that it is the elderly in Japan who retain a disproportionate share of income and who would ultimately have to absorb the costs of rebalancing income.

  Tweet Threads

  • Original Series of Tweets

  • Reply To My Question

  Population of China Has Peaked

  This chain of Tweets and replies started with the South China Morning Post article China Facing Economic Crisis as Population Peak Nears

  • Consumption set to slump after population tops out in 2025, says Cai Fang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee

  • Beijing must ‘increase labour participation and social security benefits’ for the elderly to shore up consumer demand, he says

  • If people of working age were faced with the additional financial burden of looking after an elderly relative while trying to raise a family it would make them more likely to save than consume.

  Andrew Batson, director of China research at consultancy firm Gavekal made this comment: “The government is not preparing to raise revenue to finance a major expansion of the welfare state.”

  What Will China Do?

  If China sells assets to fund retirees, the immediate question is “what assets?”

  State owned enterprises of questionable value because they need continual government support.

  US treasuries perhaps? If not what? Or does China put things off until there is political upheaval?

  I do not know what China will or won’t do. But the repercussions of China’s actions could profound.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 20:25

• "Very Shocked" – Las Vegas Residents Have Trouble Finding Gasoline 
  “Very Shocked” – Las Vegas Residents Have Trouble Finding Gasoline 

  A redux of the 1970s energy crisis had caused petroleum shortages and price spikes are currently playing out for different reasons in Las Vegas Valley.

  Las Vegas social media users complained about Chevron Corporation’s gas stations raising fuel costs and even in some areas running out of various types of fuel. 

  

  Chevron spokesman Tyler Kruzich told Las Vegas Review-Journal that shortages materialized at gas pumps across Vegas last weekend. 

  “We are working to resupply those stations as soon as possible,” Kruzich said in an emailed statement Monday to the Review-Journal.

  One Twitter user said, “What’s going on with chevron ? All their gas pumps are shut down I went to three locations already.” 

  Chevron’s Twitter account responded by saying: “Hi- Due to limits currently in operation on the pipeline serving the Las Vegas area, fuel deliveries have been impacted. Coupled with the increase in demand in the region due to travel and capacity restrictions being lifted, this has led to limited supplies available at times.” 

  The energy company blames travel and capacity restrictions lifted, resulting in a surge of fuel demand for West Coast states that has outpaced available supply. 

  Several Chevron gas pumps across the Las Vegas Valley have signs up saying they’re out of regular gas pic.twitter.com/kCk3fglDDR

  — Jonathan Ng (@ByJonathanNg) April 19, 2021

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  Review-Journal spoke with Mat Stanley, of Las Vegas, who said several Chevron locations Monday were entirely out of fuel. 

  “I went to three Chevron gas stations right by Red Rock Casino, all on Charleston,” Stanley said. “All of the gas pumps had a bag that said ‘Out of order’ and they only had diesel for all three locations. I was very, very shocked.”

  Las Vegan Wendy Henriquez noticed multiple Chevron gas stations closed and/ or were out of lower-grade fuel.

  She said: “When I got to North Las Vegas, I stopped at another Chevron (that) only had 91 and were out of 87 and 89.” Normally her fuel costs per tank is around $35 – but this time it cost her $50 because of increased prices with the use of premium fuel. 

  Review-Journal provided several other accounts of Las Vegans who realized something was wrong when Chevron stations were closed or had limited fuel. 

  “I usually pay $3.61 a gallon. This one was nearly $4 a gallon,” Cindy Preciado said, who stopped at several Chevron locations before find gas. “I was panicking. I only have 34 miles left on my car, and I didn’t know if I’m going to be able to make it to work if I drive to more locations. Gas is a necessity and if I have to spend more money, I have no other choice.”

  The shortage of fuel and price increases in the Vegas area is centric to Chevron locations. All other gas stations are operating within routine operations. 

  Besides the shortage, Nevadans are paying an average of $3.41 per gallon of regular gasoline, said AAA Nevada spokesman Sergio Avila. Last month, residents paid an average of $3.35 per gallon. 

  The latest inflation data shows Americans are experiencing some of the fastest consumer price increases in more than a decade. The fuel oil index has increased 20.2% over the last 12 months. 

  Of course, as Powell continues to soothe markets with constant jawboning, how there is nothing to worry about… as soaring consumer prices (such as fuel prices) is just a “transitory” phenomenon draining the pocketbooks of Americans. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 20:05

• At The Fed, It's "A Tale Of Two Diversities"
  At The Fed, It’s “A Tale Of Two Diversities”

  Authored by Robert Aro via The Mises Institute,

  We often hear of this word “diversity.” In 2021, it seems this word is more important than ever when electing cabinet positions, bureaucratic appointments, or other facets of organizational structures throughout the country. Merriam-Webster defines diversity as:

  the condition of having or being composed of differing elements : VARIETY

  The ironic thing about diversity is it appears to create two “divergent” paths in which it can be obtained. Just last week, the Brookings Institution appeared to inadvertently fall into a “diversity trap” of sorts, when it published the article, “Diversity within the Federal Reserve System.” It begins with:

  A growing chorus has called on the Fed to diversify its ranks at all levels to reflect better the heterogeneity of the United States. So far most of these efforts speak to the diversity of the Fed’s principals, namely, the members of the Fed’s Board of Governors and the presidents of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks. 

  This is the first, more common usage of diversity. The goal is to ensure a variety of races, genders, or other minority groups are represented. True to definition, by having various physical features, variety could be achieved. Brookings looked at the directors of the Federal Reserve banks as they are the ones responsible for choosing the president of the twelve banks across the country.

  To little surprise:

  We find a staggering homogeneity among them, with only recent signs of diversification. They are overwhelmingly white, overwhelmingly male, and overwhelmingly drawn from the business communities within their districts, with little participation from minorities, women …

  They mention other areas of the economy such as “labor, nonprofits, the academy” with the routine push for diversity requiring more minority representation, based on physical features of the candidates.

  To provide better context to the reader, as an author and a black male, I understand “diversity” from my own life experiences; however, it is important we don’t fall into such a diversity trap.

  

  While having more people of color, females, or even transgendered would bring a different physical look to the Fed, there remains the unseen and overlooked area of diversity, i.e., “intellectual diversity.” This form of diversity appears to have been ignored entirely, supplanted for aesthetic traits.

  Last year, I wrote several articles about Judy Shelton, including “Why the MSM Hates Judy Shelton.” While her potential appointment was the responsibility of Congress, one could suggest she may not have gotten nominated to the Fed board because she is a woman. However, studying her history such as questioning the manipulation of interest rates by the Fed, and other such ideas which go against the current mainstream economic dogma, one could argue her rejection by Congress could largely be attributed to her economic views of the free market.

  While a racial/gender diverse Federal Reserve might mark a lot of societal checkboxes, and even be inspirational for those in marginalized groups, we should focus on intellectual diversity and how much it appears to be lacking in the Federal Reserve system. Whether the Fed is run by all white males or a mix of males, females and a multitude of races means absolutely nothing as long as the ideas of liberty, freedom, and Austrian economics are excluded from diversity inclusion.

  We must ask ourselves: Would you feel better if your oppressor was the same race and gender identification as you? We are told diversity at the Fed is an issue that should be addressed, but it’s superficial, meant to appease popular opinion under the guise that forced inclusion matters. Nowhere are we discussing the diversity of opinions, economic understanding, or beliefs in a free society. Until a high-ranking Fed official speaks out against the Fed proposing ways to wind down its power, it doesn’t really matter who sits atop the Fed’s ivory tower, and diversity is nothing but a ruse.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 19:45

• Russia Behind 'Directed Energy' Attacks On US Troops In Syria: Pentagon Officials
  Russia Behind ‘Directed Energy’ Attacks On US Troops In Syria: Pentagon Officials

  In the newest dramatic allegations against suspected Russian malfeasance, the Department of Defense (DoD) on Thursday revealed that it believes the Russian military targeted US troops in Syria with ‘directed energy attacks’ in order to make them ill and unable to conduct normal operations. 

  Apparently some US troops occupying the country began reporting “flu-like symptoms” which caused the DoD to investigate possible linkage to microwave or directed energy weapons on the battlefield of Syria. Politico reports that “officials identified Russia as a likely culprit, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.”

  

  DoD officials said they briefed top lawmakers on intelligence which they say points to Russia being behind a series of these suspected high tech attacks. This follows a major investigation being conducted since last year of similar mysterious attacks against US personnel across the globe.

  Controversy has raged since late 2016 into 2017 and the “Havana syndrome” story, which involved some 50 diplomatic officials working at the US Embassy in Cuba coming down with strange illnesses and symptoms which many blamed on high tech ‘sonic attacks’ of some sort.  

  Personnel reported experiencing everything from vomiting to concussions to chronic headaches to minor brain injuries. But analysts and scientists have been deeply divided on the issue, with speculation ranging from high pitched sounds from crickets or even mass hysteria causing the illness.

  Syria might be a proving ground for Russian direct energy attacks on US forces: sourceshttps://t.co/Tlb2lZszby

  — Ryan Bohl (@Ryan_Bohl) April 22, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But Politico reports of these newest allegations of the potential targeting of Americans in northeast Syria as follows: 

  The briefings included information about injuries sustained by U.S. troops in Syria, the people said. The investigation includes one incident in Syria in the fall of 2020 in which several troops developed flu-like symptoms, two people familiar with the Pentagon probe said.

  The CIA is said to also be looking into these suspected attacks via its own task force. 

  Havana Syndrome: US Still Probing Mystery “Sonic Attacks” On Diplomats 3 Years Later https://t.co/ZGcoiUxWRK

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 24, 2020

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  Strangely, the Politico report also included a denial that troops in Syria were ever found to be victims of such weapons by the Pentagon press spokesperson, strongly suggesting this is a continuation of the current, highly politicized “just blame Russia” climate in Washington…

  A Pentagon spokesperson, however, said the department is not aware of directed-energy attacks against U.S. troops in Syria. The spokesperson declined further comment on the Pentagon’s interactions with Capitol Hill or any internal investigation.

  The incidents of suspected directed-energy attacks by Russia on Americans abroad became so concerning that the Pentagon’s office of special operations and low-intensity conflict began investigating last year, according to two former national security officials involved in the effort. It’s unclear exactly how many troops were injured, or the extent of their injuries.

  American troops in Syria got the flu, so naturally the Pentagon suspects a Russian “energy attack.” So say the generals who should be in padded rooms instead of leading armies. https://t.co/3xIdn9aOER pic.twitter.com/E7re6TYN72

  — Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) April 22, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  At this point the original Havana episode is believed to include the clearest evidence yet of a large group of people reporting to have experienced bizarre symptoms, and yet even this has failed to produce known evidence that Russia or a US enemy zapped Americans with an advanced microwave weapon. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 19:25

• "You Read That Right": BLM Says Communities Being "Terrorized" At Greater Rate Under Biden Than Trump
  “You Read That Right”: BLM Says Communities Being “Terrorized” At Greater Rate Under Biden Than Trump

  On the evening of the Derek Chauvin murder trial verdict, a funny thing happened over at Black Lives Matter’s Twitter account.

  Amidst a broader discussion (if you can call it that) about Biden’s first 100 days, the organization called for the Biden administration to end transferring military equipment to police officers across the country. The account cited the “military you see out on your streets ahead of the Chauvin verdict” as reasoning for their point, as if a police presence wouldn’t have been absolutely necessary in the wake of a “not guilty” verdict earlier this week. 

  But then the official blue checkmarked Black Lives Matter Twitter account, which sports a profile photo of a banner that says “End White Supremacy”, made a startling claim: that the Biden administration was “sending more military equipment” to communities “than Trump did”.

  Biden is currently sending more military equipment to our neighborhoods than Trump did. You read that right. Our communities are being terrorized at a greater rate than they had been under Trump.

  — Black Lives Matter (@Blklivesmatter) April 20, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “You read that right,” the account continues. “Our communities are being terrorized at a greater rate than they had been under Trump.” 

  The same account was critical of comments made on the night of the Derek Chauvin verdict by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said “Thank you George Floyd for sacrificing your life for justice” in her comments after the verdict in the Chauvin trial was released.

  “This is so damn disrespectful,” the BLM account said of Pelosi’s comments. 

  This is so damn disrespectful. George Floyd didn’t choose to die @speakerpelosi. He was murdered by a killer cop operating through white supremacy. There isn’t justice here. https://t.co/gNZQu3nzXg

  — Black Lives Matter (@Blklivesmatter) April 21, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “George Floyd didn’t choose to die,” the Black Lives Matter account wrote, “He was murdered by a killer cop operating through white supremacy. There isn’t justice here.”

  Leaving out the “white supremacy” argument – which we’re sure is appended to any argument that BLM tries to make – we actually agree with them on criticizing Pelosi’s comments, which we think offers some true insight into just how much black lives actually matter to her.

  Regardless, the attack on the Biden administration for attempting to police the streets leading up to the verdict is yet another example that BLM’s demands are going to be insatiable, regardless of how much pandering any administration does for them. It also offers a glimpse into the true nature of the radical change that the group hopes to affect. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 19:05

• "Go Big Or Go Home!" – Mars Helicopter Flies Higher And Longer In Second Flight 
  “Go Big Or Go Home!” – Mars Helicopter Flies Higher And Longer In Second Flight 

  NASA’s Ingenuity helicopter completed a second flight on Mars Thursday morning, just three days (April 19) after making history with the first helicopter to liftoff on another planet. 

  Ingenuity autonomously flew for approximately 1 minute and climbed to an altitude of 16 feet. It briefly hovered and moved sideways 7 feet. This flight was more complex than the first. 

  

  “Go big or go home! The Mars Helicopter successfully completed its 2nd flight, capturing this image with its black-and-white navigation camera,” NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) tweeted. “It also reached new milestones of a higher altitude, a longer hover and lateral flying.”

  Go big or go home! The #MarsHelicopter successfully completed its 2nd flight, capturing this image with its black-and-white navigation camera. It also reached new milestones of a higher altitude, a longer hover and lateral flying. pic.twitter.com/F3lwcV9kH2

  — NASA JPL (@NASAJPL) April 22, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  NASA’s rover Perseverance tweeted a short GIF of Ingenuity’s second flight. 

  #MarsHelicopter Flight #2 is in the books! I’ve captured its higher, bolder flight, and I’ll be sending back all my latest frames soon. Meanwhile, here’s a quick preview, including takeoff and two turns. pic.twitter.com/MmNOuIQ8ly

  — NASA’s Perseverance Mars Rover (@NASAPersevere) April 22, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Mars’s super-thin atmosphere is just 1% the density of Earth’s, making it more challenging for the helicopters’ blades to spin around and need about 2,500 revolutions per minute to generate lift. For comparison, on Earth, most helicopters operate at about 450-500 revolutions per minute.

  “So far, the engineering telemetry we have received and analyzed tell us that the flight met expectations and our prior computer modeling has been accurate,” said Bob Balaram, chief engineer for the Ingenuity Mars Helicopter at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in a statement.

  Balaram continued: “We have two flights of Mars under our belts, which means that there is still a lot to learn during this month of Ingenuity.”

  The team is prepared for three more flights next week. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 18:45

• Stockman: Triumph Of The Woke Mob Led By Two Doddering Old Fools
  Stockman: Triumph Of The Woke Mob Led By Two Doddering Old Fools

  Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

  Events of the last few days have made one thing crystal clear: The Democratic Party (and therefore the nation) is being led by two doddering old fools who should be domiciled in a rest home, not the Oval Office and the Speaker’s Chamber.

  

  How that baleful reality coexists with Wall Street’s expectation of an awesome economic future and stock prices which never stop rising to the sky is one of the great enigmas of our times. Or maybe it’s just because $10 trillion of fiscal and monetary “stimulus” in the past year can turn the proverbial sow’s ear into a silk purse. For a time.

  By now, of course, we expect idiocy from Sleepy Joe, especially on the economic front.

  Accordingly, at his virtual global summit he will be reading-out from the White House teleprompter the demented agenda of the Climate Change Howlers. Therein he will promise to cut greenhouse gases by 50% by the end of this decade, which calamity we can also promise would cut America’s debt-entombed economy to its knees.

  That comes after Tuesday’s White House contretemps when he first prayed for a guilty verdict in the Chauvin trial even as the jury was sitting in its deliberations, and then, afterwards, made the risible claim that this tragedy was the spawn of systemic racism.

  In fact, Nanny State over-reach was the underlying cause of George Floyd’s arrest and unjust death—just as it is the source of most of America’s unfortunate violence between police and unarmed citizens, back, white and otherwise.

  In both cases, of course, we find Sleepy Joe fronting for the hideous core agenda—race baiting and climate hysteria— of a Democratic Party which has lost its way and has been taken over by a camarilla of woke zealots.

  Indeed, if there were any doubt about the latter, Nancy Pelosi’s truly venal deification of George Floyd should remove it once and for all.

  

  Yes, the man was a victim, but he was also a drug-addicted criminal lout and grifter, who deserves no place of honor anywhere; and who’s estranged family deserves sympathy and support, but not a $27 million gift of blood money from a woke city council that takes Minneapolis one step closer to its demise every time it meets.

  “And thank God, the jury validated what we saw, what we saw,” Pelosi said in front of the U.S. Capitol Building as she delivered remarks with the Congressional Black Caucus. “So, again, thank you George Floyd for sacrificing your life for justice. For being there to call out to your mom. How heart-breaking was that? To call out to your mom, ‘I can’t breathe.’ But because of you – and because of thousands, millions of people around the world who came out for justice – your name will always be synonymous with justice.”

  For crying out loud. George Floyd didn’t sacrifice himself in the cause of justice. He got hopped up on a lethal dose of fentanyl and then foolishly resisted arrest when the original officers on the scene attempted to place him in the backseat of a squad car.

  That is to say, the entire narrative culminating in Nancy Pelosi’s hideous idolization of George Floyd has been blatantly wrong from the get go. This case is not about racial justice at all, to say nothing of striking a blow against so called “white privilege”.

  For want of doubt, we need to repeat the facts. That’s because they show that episodes like the George Floyd case do not fit the stereotypes of either the BLM and its race-card playing progressive/Dem allies or, for that matter, the Foxified Right’s knee-jerk defense of the nation’s over-empowered, over-budgeted, over-militarized police.

  Needless to say, the George Floyd case was not an aberration. During the recent past there were 38 such police killings of unarmed black citizens in 2015, and then 19, 21, 17 and 9 during 2016 through 2019, respectively. That’s 104 black lives lost to the ultimate abuse of police powers.

  Of course, the number should be zero police killings of unarmed citizens. There is no conceivable excuse for heavily armed cops—-usually working in pairs or groups—to cause the death of lone, unarmed civilians, regardless of race or anything else.

  And in this case that was especially so, and not withstanding several mitigating factors.

  For instance, the Minneapolis police officers originally attempted to put George Floyd safely in the back seat of a squad car after his arrest for the petty crime of attempting to pass a counterfeit $20 bill, but he resisted them intensely for up to five minutes. That’s plain as day in the other videos—those from the cops’ body-cams.

  The trial evidence from these body-cams also showed that during this struggle around the squad car Floyd said he couldn’t breath six times owing to a severe medical reaction to the fatal level of fentanyl in his blood and the methamphetamines that he had ingested shortly before the incident. These reactions were surely compounded by the man’s “severe” and “multifocal” arteriosclerotic heart disease and clinical history of hypertension, which the Minneapolis medical examiner said was the underlying cause of his death.

  Yet after Floyd was cuffed and placed prone on the street, as he himself had requested, and the officers had called for an ambulance owing to his obvious medical distress, the arrest went haywire and Chauvin exposed himself to Manslaughter 2, at least, for no plausible or justifiable reason.

  That’s because Floyd had been unarmed throughout the incident, was hand-cuffed and incapable of flight or harming others and was surrounded by four armed officers. Accordingly, he was no threat to them, nor anyone else, and he therefore presented no policing reason for the extended knee-hold on the back of his neck—especially after the surrounding crowd had warned the police that Floyd was in self-evident dire distress.

  So as we see it, Chauvin’s conviction on second degree manslaughter does indeed comport with the Minnesota statute, which reads as follows:

  …..by the person’s culpable negligence whereby the person creates an unreasonable risk, and consciously takes chances of causing death or great bodily harm to another;

  But here’s also where the Woke/Progressive Left narrative goes even more haywire. Floyd’s death was due to an arrest which shouldn’t have happened and bad police behavior that has nothing to do with race.

  As to the former point, what should have been on trial in this case was not “systemic racism”, but the Nanny State for grotesquely excessive use of force to enforce a petty counterfeiting complaint that should not be police business in the first place. It’s the job of retail store owners to handle petty counterfeiters or people who unknowingly pass bad greenbacks and to absorb the cost of self-protection just like they do in the case of refusing charges on bad credit cards.

  So there is zero reason why George Floyd should ever have been arrested.

  As to bad police behavior, you do not have to look too hard to see that it’s essentially color-blind and that being non-black is no guarantee against the same unjust fate.

  During the same five-year period in which 104 black lives were lost, a total of 127 unarmed white lives were wasted by the police, as well. That included 32 white killings in 2015 followed by 22, 31, 23 and 19 in 2016 through 2019, respectively.

  Overall, 302 unarmed citizens were killed by the police during those five years, with the balance accounted for by 71 deaths among Hispanic and other victims. That is, the real issue is illegal and excessive police violence, not racial victimization.

  Indeed, the fact that 34% of these police killings involved black citizens compared to their 13% share of the population is not primarily a sign of racism among police forces, although it is continuously construed to be.

  It’s actually evidence that the Nanny State, and especially the misbegotten War on Drugs, is designed to unnecessarily ensnare a distinct demographic— young, poor, often unemployed urban citizens— in confrontations with the cops, too many of which become fatal.

  Alas, young black males are disproportionately represented among this particular inharms’-way demographic, and that’s the reason they are “disproportionately” represented in the 302 cases cited above.

  Stated differently, the Nanny State results in too many black victims of plain old injustice, even if that is not necessarily the intent of the crusaders and zealots who have launched the state into anti-liberty wars on drugs, vice and victimless iniquities and peccadillos.

  That is to say, statism in the sphere of law and order is every bit as dysfunctional as it is in the realm of economics, yet neither conservatives nor progressives recognize it.

  Conservatives want way too much law and police empowerment in the service of cultural norms that are none of the state’s damn business in the first place; and progressives confuse the often brutal and unjust over-reach of law enforcement agencies as a manifestation of racism, when it is actually just policing expectorations in behalf of inappropriate missions such as the enforcement of drug laws.

  Indeed, the main trouble in America today is not overt racism or even simmering racial animosity. The real evil is the relentless aggrandizement of state power in the form of the Nanny State—a conflation of too many laws, crimes, cops, arrests and thereby opportunities for frictions between the state and its citizenry and for abuse by the gendarmes vested with legal use of violence.

  In a word, some citizens sometimes can’t breathe their last breath because in far too many instances liberty can’t breathe in today’s unhinged Nanny State, either.

  Among the most recent notorious cases, of course, are George Floyd’s fatal arrest for allegedly passing a counterfeit $20 bill; Eric Garner (NYC 2014), subdual for selling untaxed cigarettes; Rayshard Brooks for falling asleep drunk in his car at a subsequently incinerated Wendy’s in Atlanta; and Breonna Taylor of Louisville for being awake in her own apartment at 1:30 AM when police barged in with guns blaring in a drug enforcement raid.

  These are anecdotal cases, of course, but the big picture statistics tell the same story. In the most recent year of complete data (2018), there were 9.3 million arrests in the US excluding traffic enforcement charges of DUI. Yet among this massive number of arrests, those involving serious crimes against persons and property accounted for just 521,000 or 5.6%. These included:

  • Negligent murder and manslaughter: 11,970;

  • Rape: 25,205;

  • Armed robbery: 88,128;

  • Aggravated assault: 395,800;

  That’s it. That’s the contribution to core public safety delivered by the 850,000 sworn law enforcement officers in the USA—about 0.6 arrests per year for serious crimes per law enforcement officer.

  As for what they were doing the rest of the time and the other 8,777,000 arrests that occurred in 2018, we can say this: They clearly provided more occasion for conflict between citizens and the gendarmes and for policing actions to go haywire, as in the George Floyd case, than any additional increments of public safety.

  After all, the single largest category of arrests in 2018 was for drug abuse violations, which totaled 1,654,282.

  In fact, while total arrests for all crimes in 2018 were no higher than they were in 1977 despite a 100 million/50% growth in the US population, and had actually dropped from a peak of nearly 13 million in 2006, the opposite trend was extant in the case of the nation’s misbegotten War on Drugs arrests.

  As shown by the chart below, drug arrests in 2018 were nearly at peak levels and were up by more than 171% since 1977—the vast majority of which are made for drug possession generally, and marijuana possession most often.

  War on Drugs Arrests, 1980-2016

  

  Not surprisingly, the next largest arrest category after drugs is one called “other assaults” for which 1,063,535 arrests were made in 2018. Yet the FBI’s own definitions raise considerable doubts as to why these are even a proper matter for law enforcement by the state:

  Other assaults (simple) – Assaults and attempted assaults where no weapon was used or no serious or aggravated injury resulted to the victim. Stalking, intimidation, coercion, and hazing are included.

  Then, of course, we have all the victimless and vice crimes, including the following number of arrests:

  • Prostitution and commercialized vice: 31,147;

  • Sex offenses excluding rape and prostitution: 46,937;

  • Gambling: 3,323;

  • Liquor law offenses: 173,152;

  • Curfew and loitering law violations: 22,031;

  • Vagrancy: 23,546;

  • Public drunkenness: 328,772;

  • Disorderly conduct: 329,152;

  • Forgery and counterfeiting: 50,072;

  • Weapons carrying and possession: 168,403;

  • All other offenses: 3,231,700.

  The latter huge number tells you all you need to know. The UCR lists 27 enumerated categories of crime including all of those itemized above–plus the usual suspects like fraud and embezzlement for which there were about 135,000 arrests in 2018. Yet when the whole lists is exhausted, 32% of arrests occurred for crimes that are so minor even the FBI is embarrassed to enumerate them!

  So, yes, we do think there are way, way too many crimes and cops, and that decriminalizing and de-funding law enforcement are the only route to reducing police violence.

  But by the same token, the unwarranted and often mendacious racializing of police malfeasance, which the George Floyd case has brought to a fever pitch, will only insure retrogression. That is, it will unleash a blind rallying to the defense of law enforcement by conservative Republicans, blue collar whites and the Foxified Right, thereby insuring a continuing failure to attack and drastically curtail the Nanny State regime, which is the real source of policing injustice.

  Of course, don’t expect Nancy Pelosi or Sleepy Joe to be any more enlightened on the matter than Sean Hannity. These doddering old fools are now enthrall to the wokedom of the progressive-Left; and, as Maxine Water’s blatant performance as agent provocateur in Minneapolis the night before the verdict makes clear, these people want the problem to fester and metastasize, not be alleviated.

  Indeed, it is probably not too far fetched to say that Congresswoman Waters’ call for a guilty verdict or else a new round of violent uprisings amounted to an insurance policy. Three guilty verdicts could not trigger the latter, but a judicial appeal resulting in a mistrial order surely would.

  In other words, the Democratic Party has fallen into the grip of vicious leftist zealots and power-hungry authoritarians. And the events of the last two days suggest that two dangerously wrong-headed and ugly narratives—-race-baiting and climate hysteria— now stand at the center of the Dem agenda because the party’s two supreme leaders are too weak and too senile to resist the mob.

  So we’d say to the feverish punters of Wall Street, yes, embrace the putative Economic Boom impending and buy the Greatest Financial Bubble in history, if you must.

  But, really, if the events which culminated in Tuesday’s triumph of mob justice do not scare the living bejesus out of you, then, well, you probably deserve to suffer the thundering financial gotterdammerung which is surely coming your way.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 04/22/2021 – 18:25

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