Apr 24

Today’s News 24th April 2017

  • Ukraine, Korea, Syria, Iran… Falsifying History Is Uncle Sam's Way To War

    Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the International Arctic Forum this week on the real and present dangers from falsifying history. He said such deliberate distortion of history erodes international law and order, creating chaos and leading to further conflict.

    The Russian leader deplored the use of history as an «ideological weapon» to demonize others, and he said that without proper understanding of history we are bound to repeat mistakes of the past.

    That also reminds one of the maxim Karl Marx once wrote: «History repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce».

    As if on cue, while Putin was enumerating the dangers of false history, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko was being hosted in London by British premier Theresa May during a two-day visit.

    The Kiev-based regime that Poroshenko leads came to power through an illegal, violent coup against an elected government in February 2014, with clandestine support from Washington and the European Union. The Ukrainian state military ever since have been waging a war on the eastern region of the country, resulting in a death toll of over 10,000 and up to a million displaced. All because the ethnic Russian population of the eastern Donbas region refuses to recognize the Kiev regime’s legitimacy owing to its illegal power grab three years ago.

    However, the way Poroshenko and the Kiev regime tells it, Ukraine is fighting off an invasion by Russia. The Ukrainian president’s falsification of history was dignified by his British host who dutifully nodded along as Poroshenko claimed that his country was a bulwark of Europe’s defense against Russian invasion.

    «This is not Ukraine’s struggle, it is Europe’s struggle. Sanctions and the resistance of the Ukrainian army are the only reason why Russian tanks are not much further in Europe», said Poroshenko whose asinine version of history received tacit British approval.

    Inadvertently, Poroshenko can be seen as confirming the perils of historical defamation that Putin was warning of.

    Falsifying recent and contemporary events in Ukraine might be a useful expedient for drumming up Western financial and military support for the corrupt and shaky Kiev regime; such blatant propagandizing of history may also be a useful expedient for expanding US-led NATO military power, with all the lucrative weapons contracts that it entails for Western governments. But such a misrepresentation of events ultimately serves to fuel unnecessary conflict, as Putin remarked. Such a flagrant misrepresentation is itself arguably a criminal act of engendering war.

    Ukraine is but one instance. The dangers from distorting, suppressing, or falsifying history are all too abundant in recent international developments.

    This week, US vice president Mike Pence was again threatening North Korea with war and annihilation, saying that the American «sword was drawn» to «protect the freedom» of its Japanese and South Korean allies. Pence made grossly distorted references to the 1950-53 Korean War, portraying it as a struggle between American-backed «good» and Communist-backed «evil».

    Maybe if Washington were to acknowledge the horrendous legacy of war crimes it committed during the Korean War, resulting in over three million civilians being slaughtered from American carpet bombing, then there might be an opportunity for a frank and creative dialogue for resolving the ongoing conflict on the Korean Peninsula. As it is, American self-serving, delusional rhetoric about Korean history only serves to compound tensions and further conflict. Which tends to belie the real purpose of Washington’s falsification of history here.

    Likewise, Washington persists in claiming that its missile strikes on Syria earlier this month are a «righteous» demonstration of military power which will be used against any nation it deems to be in violation of international law, citing the chemical weapons incident in Syria on April 4. The US and its allies allege, with minimal evidence, that the incident was carried out by the Syrian government forces deploying poisonous sarin gas.

    Again, this is blatant falsification of history which the US, British and French governments have indulged in, along with the UN-affiliated Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. All these claims are made in unseemly haste without an impartial on-site investigation into the alleged chemical weapons incident in Khan Sheikhoun, Idlib Province. But nevertheless the dubious claims are invoked as «just cause» for further missile strikes on Syria by the Trump administration only three days later, when in fact those strikes could very well be condemned as illegal aggression and a criminal act of war against a sovereign country.

    An even closer, more disturbing peeling back of the falsification of history on Syria would reveal that the so-called White Helmets «rescue group» and the illegally armed militants to whom they are closely aligned and serve as the media agents for, are all sponsored by American, British and French military intelligence. This is why Russia, Iran and Syria are demanding a full, impartial investigation into the latest chemical weapons incident. Because there are strong suspicions that the incident was a propaganda stunt staged by the Western-backed militants, precisely in order to create a pretext for subsequent US military attack on Syria.

    This one particular scenario is perfectly consistent with the wider narrative that the whole Syrian war, beginning in March 2011, was from the outset a Western covert operation for regime change. The regime-change objective was to oust the government of President Bashar al Assad, a strategic ally of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, and a staunch opponent of Western imperialist intrigues in the oil-rich Middle East region. Archived US documents, kept deliberately away from public discourse by state and media authorities, show that Western-backed regime-change in Syria has been on the agenda of the American CIA and British MI6 going back several decades.

    Falsifying history in Syria on the short and long term is a key way for the Western powers to keep pushing their unlawful agenda of conflict and regime change – an agenda that fully depends on Western powers sponsoring terrorist proxy groups to do their dirty work. Just as these same powers did before in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and many other countries around the world, such as with paramilitary death squads in Central and South America.

    As President Vladimir Putin alluded to in his address this week, this falsification of history explains why the war in Syria keeps grinding on, seemingly without end. Not just in Syria, but in Korea and Ukraine too, among other conflict zones.

    Speaking of other conflict zones, this week US defense secretary General James Mattis provocatively accused Iran – yet again – of being the «world’s leading sponsor of terrorism». Mattis was speaking these words of American «wisdom» while in Saudi Arabia! Only a person with such a thoroughly falsified notion of CIA-sponsored terrorism against Iran (the coup of 1953 and much more besides) as well as falsified understanding of US-backed Saudi despotism could make such an absurd claim as Mattis did, and thus fueling tensions of further war in such a volatile region.

    If the Western public were fully informed of how the crises in Ukraine, Korea, Syria and Iran have been largely fomented by Western machinations then those conflicts would not continue as they are. Because the real causes of the conflicts would be widely exposed, showing Western government culpability, in particular Washington’s.

    And then, if justice were to prevail, those Western politicians and news media outlets who have been responsible for obscuring, distorting and thereby fueling these conflicts would finally be held to account.

  • Paul Craig Roberts Asks "If This Is Freedom And Democracy, What Is Tyranny?"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    “Our problem is civil obedience. Our problem is the numbers of people all over the world who have obeyed the dictates of the leaders of their government and have gone to war, and millions have been killed because of this obedience… Our problem is that people are obedient all over the world, in the face of poverty and starvation and stupidity, and war and cruelty. Our problem is that people are obedient while the jails are full of petty thieves, and all the while the grand thieves are running the country. That’s our problem… people are obedient, all these herdlike people.” — Howard Zinn

    If truth be known, Americans are no more free than were Germans under Gestapo Germany. “Freedom and Democracy America” is the greatest lie in the world.

    Countries sink into tyranny easily. Those born today don’t know the freedom of the past and are unaware of what has been taken away. Some American blacks might think that finally after a long civil rights struggle they have gained freedom. But the civil rights that they gained have been taken away from all of us by the “war on terror.” Today black Americans are gratuitously shot down in the streets by police in ways that are worse than in Jim Crow days.

    American women might think that finally they have gained equality, and they have—the equality to be abused by police just like men. As John Whitehead reports, women are forced by police to strip naked, often in public, and have their viginas explored as part of a “drug search.” When I was a young man, society would not have tolerated any such intrusion on a woman. The officer and police chief would have been fired and if not prosecuted for rape, would have been beat into bloody pulps by the enraged men.

    Tryanny was brought to Americans intentionally by their government. Perhaps it began in 1992 with the unaccountable use of police power against an American family at Ruby Ridge. Randy Weaver’s 12 or 13 year old son was shot in the back and murdered by federal marshalls. Then his wife was murdered with a shot through her throat while she stood at the door of her home holding a baby in her arms. There was no justification for this gratuitous violence against a peaceful American family, and the federal marshalls who murdered were not held accountable. The Congress, “the people’s representatives” held a hearing, and those responsible for murdering a family told the representatives that they had “to trust the police”.

    A year later, 1993, the Clinton regime murdered, using poison gas as well as gun fire, more than 100 members of the Branch Davidian religious sect in Waco, Texas.

    Women and children comprised most of the victims of “freedom and democracy America.” The Branch Davidians had done nothing except be different. They were a threat to no one. But the Clinton criminal government knew that it could portray the Branch Davidians, as they were different, in unfavorable lights. They were said to be in possession of, and perhaps manufacturing, illegal machine guns. They were said to be having sex with underage girls in their collective.

    When the Branch Davidian compound was attacked by a tank spewing chemical warfare and then burnt to the ground, insouciant Americans were told that justice had been done to child abusers. No one objected that the same “justice” had also been done to the allegedly abused children.

    Again the “representatives of the people” held a hearing. The result was that the Clinton criminal regime and Janet Reno got approval for dealing effectively with those who violate gun laws.

    Ruby Ridge and Waco established the precedents that the US government could murder large numbers of Americans, and at Waco some foreigners, without consequence. The “representatives of the people” accepted the executive branch’s lies in order to avoid having to hold the executive branch accountable for what were clearly without any doubt capital crimes against American citizens for which the federal perpetrators of these crimes should have been tried and executed.

    These two instances established the precedent that the US government could murder US citizens at will.

    The next step was to take away the constitutional and legal protections of citizens that are in the Bill of Rights, the amendments to the US Constitution, and are, or were, institutionalized in legal practices.

    The false flag attack of September 11, 2001, was the instrument for deep-sixing the bill of rights. The George W. Bush regime made us “safe” by taking away our civil liberties. Habeas corpus, the foundation of liberty, was destroyed by the executive branch’s assertion that the President on his sole authority, the US Constitution notwithstanding, can detain US citizens indefinitely without evidence, without going before a court, without any accountability to law whatsoever.

    The Obama regime not only endorsed this murder of the US Constitution, “American’s First Black President” even went further. Obama declared that he had the power to sit in his office and write down names of US citizens whom he could murder at his will without acountability.

    Congress did not object. The Supreme Court did not object. The American media did not object. The law schools and bar associations did not object. The Republican Party did not object. The Democratic Party did not object. The American people did not object. Washington’s allies in Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada did not object. The Christian churches did not object.

    I objected, and a few others like me, such as John Whitehead.

    9/11 clearly, without any doubt, destroyed American liberty. Even if you are so brainwashed as to believe an obviously false story of the event, even if you believe that a few Saudi Arabians without government or intelligence service support outwitted all 16 US intelligence agencies, the National Security Council, all intelligence agencies of Washington’s vassals abroad, outwitted Israel’s Mossad, US Air Traffic Control, caused US Airport Security to fail four times in one hour on the same day, and prevented for the first time in history the US Air Force from sending fighters to intercept off course airliners, the fact remains the same: the US government used 9/11 to destroy the constitutional protections of US liberty.

    The raw, ugly, but true fact that “our” government has destroyed American liberty is the reason that everyone of us is subject to experiencing the abuses that John Whitehead describes below.

    Who will be next? You? Me? Your Wife? Your Son? Your daughter? Your aged and infirm parents?

    When it happens, it was the American people who permitted it.

  • Chinese Stocks Are Plunging

    Despite a liquidity injection and the rest of the world in 'risk-on' mode over the French election results, Chinese markets are tumbling…

    On Friday, we asked "Is China Trying To (Slowly) Burst Another Stock Market Bubble?" as Chinese monetray conditions were tightening dramatically…

    And, as Bloomberg reports, it seems the catalyst is further crackdowns on shadow-banking.

    China’s banking regulator, which said late Friday it will focus on guarding against financial risks, has ordered local units to assess cross-guaranteed loans, according to a Caixin report.

    Having gone 86 trading days without a loss of more than 1% on a closing basis, the longest stretch since the market’s infancy in 1992…

    It seems they might be… (or The National Team is going to have to work very hard today)…

     

    As Shanghai Composite breaks below ist 200-day moving-average withe the biggest intraday drop since Dec 12th…

     

    CHINEXT (China's Nasdaq) is also getting hammered – testing its lowest levels since February 2015….

  • Trump: If The DOJ Wants To Arrest Assange, "It's OK With Me"

    Having selected several key excerpts from Donald Trump’s lengthy AP interview earlier, we urge readers looking for fascinating yet surreal bedtime reading to give the full, nearly 8,000 word transcript a try, as it contains bizarro excerpts such as this:

    AP: You did put out though, as a candidate, you put out a 100-day plan. Do you feel like you should be held accountable to that plan?

     

    TRUMP: Somebody, yeah, somebody put out the concept of a hundred-day plan. But yeah. Well, I’m mostly there on most items. Go over the items, and I’ll talk to you … (Crosstalk.)

     

    TRUMP: But things change. There has to be flexibility. Let me give you an example. President Xi, we have a, like, a really great relationship. For me to call him a currency manipulator and then say, “By the way, I’d like you to solve the North Korean problem,” doesn’t work. So you have to have a certain flexibility, Number One. Number Two, from the time I took office till now, you know, it’s a very exact thing. It’s not like generalities. Do you want a Coke or anything?

     

    AP: I’m OK, thank you. No. …

    Yet what caught our attention was the following excerpt on a topic that has re-emerged in recent days in the aftermath of the spat between Julian Assange and the new CIA chief Mike Pompeo, who last week made it clear Assange’s days as a quasi-free man are numbered. And, as the following exchange between the AP and Trump notes, the president does not harbor any partcularly fond feelings for the man who has been accused of being a Russian plant or spy and crushing Hillary Clinton’s election chances. That, and so much more in the following bizarre exchange:

    AP: Jeff Sessions, your attorney general, is taking a tougher line suddenly on Julian Assange, saying that arresting him is a priority. You were supportive of what WikiLeaks was doing during the campaign with the release of the Clinton emails. Do you think that arresting Assange is a priority for the United States?

     

    TRUMP: When Wikileaks came out … never heard of Wikileaks, never heard of it. When Wikileaks came out, all I was just saying is, “Well, look at all this information here, this is pretty good stuff.” You know, they tried to hack the Republican, the RNC, but we had good defenses. They didn’t have defenses, which is pretty bad management. But we had good defenses, they tried to hack both of them. They weren’t able to get through to Republicans. No, I found it very interesting when I read this stuff and I said, “Wow.” It was just a figure of speech. I said, “Well, look at this. It’s good reading.”

     

    AP: But that didn’t mean that you supported what Assange is doing?

     

    TRUMP: No, I don’t support or unsupport. It was just information. They shouldn’t have allowed it to get out. If they had the proper defensive devices on their internet, you know, equipment, they wouldn’t even allow the FBI. How about this — they get hacked, and the FBI goes to see them, and they won’t let the FBI see their server. But do you understand, nobody ever writes it. Why wouldn’t (former Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John) Podesta and Hillary Clinton allow the FBI to see the server? They brought in another company that I hear is Ukrainian-based.

     

    AP: CrowdStrike? 

     

    TRUMP: That’s what I heard. I heard it’s owned by a very rich Ukrainian, that’s what I heard. But they brought in another company to investigate the server. Why didn’t they allow the FBI in to investigate the server? I mean, there is so many things that nobody writes about. It’s incredible. 

     

    AP: Can I just ask you, though — do you believe it is a priority for the United States, or it should be a priority, to arrest Julian Assange? 

     

    TRUMP: I am not involved in that decision, but if Jeff Sessions wants to do it, it’s OK with me. I didn’t know about that decision, but if they want to do it, it’s OK with me.

    And while Trump may somehow not know about the DOJ’s decision to arrest Assange, we are confident he knows that any potential pardon of Assange is long gone. As for Donald Trump “loving” Wikileaks, that was so six months ago.

  • These Are The Tallest Buildings In Each State

    One of the most interesting things about skyscrapers and high-rises is their competitive aspects.

    The Empire State Building, The Burj Khalifa, and other tall buildings were built, in part, to say to the rest of the world: “Look what we can do!”

    There hasn’t just been competition between countries, either – there has been some competition within the United States too! 

    In this infographic, we take a look at the tallest buildings of each state. How tall would a state stand, based on its tallest building?  Which states have the most high-rise buildings?  What are most skyscrapers used for? 

    The United States Ranked by the Tallest Building in Each State - HighRises.com - Infographic
    Source: Highrises.com

  • Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US GDP; ECB & BOJ Meetings, And Lots Of Earnings

    The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report on Thursday and Q1 GDP on Friday.  It iweek is the busiest week of earnings season, with 40%  of S&P 500 equity cap reporting. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. 

    Further, as SocGen notes, this week, markets will digest the French election results, with data releases focusing on the strength of the euro area recovery. The ECB may signal upside risks to near-term growth ahead of higher core inflation on Friday. EU leaders will meet to adopt Brexit negotiation guidelines. In the US, softer 1Q GDP data will be scrutinized, while rising inflation in the UK may have a longer term impact on growth. In Asia, GDP data should be boosted by net exports while the BoJ may upgrade it economic assessment.

    United States: Q1 GDP likely to show weak growth

    This week, consensus expects broadly unchanged new home sales as well as subdued business investment (ex aircraft orders). Most of the focus will be on Friday’s Q1 GDP where the Atlanta Fed expects growth to tumble to just 0.5%. Still, the Fed (and markets) is used to softness in Q1 growth that at least in the past has snapped back in the second half. Lastly, a one- or two-week bill looks likely to keep the government open past the Friday deadline, giving Congress a bit more time to work on a longer-term deal.

    Euro area: ECB to acknowledge upside risks to near-term growth.

    While markets will digest the French election results, the ECB will likely acknowledge upside risks to growth in 1H on Thursday while remaining on hold. Both headline and core inflation should recover by two-tenths on Friday, while the first 1Q GDP estimates for France (0.2% qoq) and Spain (0.7%) will give an early indication for the euro area (next Wednesday). Both the EC confidence indicators and the German Ifo will probably moderate but are expected to remain high. A special summit of EU-27 leaders (Saturday) will set the guidelines for the EU in the upcoming negotiations with the UK.

    Asia Pacific: Solid 1Q GDP gains in Korea and Taiwan; BoJ may upgrade assessment

    First quarter GDP data from South Korea and Taiwan are likely to have been boosted by net trade, as suggested by the strong external trade recovery across the region. The BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current policy stance and make no meaningful changes to its economic forecasts, but may upgrade its assessment of the economy. In Australia, annual rates of headline and core inflation are likely to have moved up, but not quite into target.

    JPM lays out the Calendar of events to watch for in the week of Mon Apr 24

    • The big focus this week will be on earnings (the week of 4/24 is the peak of the CQ1 season), central banks (decisions from the BOJ and ECB), Eurozone eco data (Eurozone Arp CPI on Friday 4/28), US eco data (Q1 US GDP and ECI both hit Fri 4/28), and US gov’t funding (legislation to fund the gov’t expires on Apr 28 – a shutdown is considered unlikely).
    • Calendar for Mon Apr 24 – the main focus on Mon will be earnings (HAL, HAS, ITW KMB, LII, and TCB pre-open and AA, AMP, CCI, CDNS, CR, ESRX, NEM, RE, RMBS, RRC, SANM, TMUS, UDR, WHR, WNC, WRB, and ZION after the close). 
    • Calendar for Tues Apr 25 – the main focus will be on US FHFA/Case-Shiller home prices for Feb (9amET), US new home sales for Mar (10amET), US conf. board confidence figures for Apr (10amET), and earnings (AKS, AN, BHI, BIIB, CAT, CIT, CNC, DD, Ericsson, FCX, FITB, GLW, KO, LH, LLY, LMT, MAS, MCD, MMM, NLSN, Novartis, NTRS, OI, PCAR, PHM, PNR, R, SAP, SPGI, ST, TROW, TRU, TUP, VLO, WAT, WSO, and XRX pre-open and ARNC, BHP, BXP, CB, CENX, CHRW, CMG, COF, CREE, DFS, EQR, EW, ILMN, JNPR, SYK, T, TSS, TXN, UHS, and ULTI after the close).
    • Calendar for Wed Apr 26 – the main focus will be on earnings (ALK, ANTM, APH, AVY, BA, BAX, Credit Suisse, Daimler, DPS, GD, HES, HSY, IR, NDAQ, NSC, PEP, PG, ROK, Santander, Standard Chartered, STT, STX, TEL, TWTR, UTX, X, WRK, and WYN pre-open and AMGN, AVB, CAVM, EQIX, FFIV, FISV, KIM, MAA, NOW, NTGR, ORLY, PYPL, SAM, UNM, VAR, XL, and XLNX after the close).
    • Calendar for Thurs Apr 27 – the main focus will be on central banks (BOJ, Riksbank, and ECB decisions), China industrial profits for Mar (Wed night/Thurs morning), US advanced goods trade balance for Mar and durable goods for Mar (8:30amET), US pending home sales for Mar (10amET), the expiration of the FCC anti-collusion rules (related to the recent spectrum auction), Trump’s press conf., and earnings (ABBV, Airbus, ALLE, ALLY, AMT, APD, BASF, BMY, BSX, CBG, CELG, CMCSA, CME, Deutsche Bank, DOW, F, IP, IVZ, JCI, LAZ, LLL, LUV, MMC, MPC, Nokia, NOV, POT, PX, Roche, RS, SIRI, SPG, STM, UAA, UNP, UPS, USG, VC, WCC, and ZBH pre-open and AFL, AIV, AMZN, BIDU, CERN, ESS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, GOOGL, GPRO, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, MHK, MSFT, PFG, Samsung Electronics, SBUX, SWKS, SYNA, VRSN, VRTX, and WDC after the close).
    • Calendar for Fri Apr 28 – the main focus will be on Eurozone eco data (including Eurozone Apr CPI at 5amET), US Q1 GDP and ECI (8:30amET), US Chicago PMI for Apr (9:45amET), Michigan Sentiment for Apr (10amET), and earnings (CL, CVX, GM, GT, HST, LYB, PSX, SYF, VFC, WY, and XOM pre-open).

    Global Economics Calendar: Week of Mon April 24th, also via JPM

    • Monday, April 24th: US (Chicago./Dallas Fed Indices); Eurozone (Germany IFO Current Assessment, UK CBI Business Optimism); Other (Taiwan Unemployment Rate, Japan Leading/Coincident Index, Taiwan Industrial production, Taiwan Money Supply, China Conference Board China March Leading Economic Index, Japan PPI Services)
    • Tuesday, April 25th: US (FHFA House Price Index, S&P/CoreLogic 20-City HPI, New Home Sales, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Fed); Eurozone (France Business Confidence, Spain PPI, ECB Bank Lending Survey, UK Public Finances, Euro Area Fourth Quarter Government Debt); Other (Hong Kong Trade Balance)
    • Wednesday, April 26th: US (MBA Mortgage Applications); Eurozone (France Consumer Confidence, Spain Total Mortgage Lending, France Jobseekers); Other (Japan All Industry Activity Index, Japan Machine Tool Orders, Japan Buying/Selling Foreign Stocks/Bonds, China Swift Global Payments, China Industrial Profits, BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target, BOJ Policy Balance Rate)
    • Thursday, April 27th: US (Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale/Retail Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index); Eurozone (Germany GfK Consumer Confidence, Spain Unemployment Rate, Spain CPI, Germany CPI, Italy Economic Sentiment, Eurozone Economic Confidence, ECB Main Refinancing Rate, ECB Asset Purchase Target, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Spain Budget Balance); Other (Taiwan Monitoring Indicator, Taiwan Bounced Check Ratio, Japan Jobless Rate, Japan National CPI, Japan Industrial Production, Japan Retail Sales)
    • Friday, April 28th: US (Employment Cost Index, GDP Annualized, Core PCE, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Survey); Eurozone (France GDP, France CPI, Eurozone M3 Money Supply, Spain GDP, Spain Retail Sales, UK GDP, Eurozone CPI, Italy PPI, , UK Nationwide House Prices); Other (Japan Vehicle Production, Japan Housing Starts)

    A look at the upcoming busiest week of Q1 earning season:

    The CQ1 season isn’t even half over although several important companies posted numbers over the last 1.5 weeks.  As is the case with any given earnings period, the most “important” sectors from the perspective of the macro narrative are banks, semis, capital goods, and credit cards.  The US bank season is nearly over and numbers were pretty healthy, esp. relative to reduced expectations.  Loan growth wasn’t as bad as the weekly Fed data suggested, NII/NIM was inline-to-better, expenses and credit remain under control (there were some pockets of credit deterioration but nothing that suggests a broader systemic problem), and trading was healthy (the one notable exception was GS which badly lagged its peers in FICC; GS mgmt. didn’t sound concerned and cited the latter two letters, i.e. currencies and commodities, for the shortfall).  At the moment for bank stocks the direction of TSY yields (and the shape of the curve) is having a greater influence than earnings.  In semis only a handful of companies reported but the early results are solid, esp. semi equipment (ASML and LRCX).  MXIM’s report Thurs night was more controversial – the headline income statement figures were solid for Mar actuals and June guide but mgmt. on the call acknowledged some softness in the US auto market (although MXIM really wasn’t outright negative on autos and while SAAR is drifting lower the amount of silicon per unit continues to experience strong growth).  The initial indications from the capital goods companies w/DOV, GE, and HON all posting healthy organic growth (both revs and orders) while Eurozone reports were decent too (Schneider, ABB, etc.).  GE was controversial as very strong orders and income statement numbers were offset by very weak cash flow.  GWW was the one notable disappointment within the industrial space although the problem was competition/pricing (and not necessarily end-market demand).  The best sector for assessing the health of “the consumer” isn’t retail but instead the credit cards (the key is the amount of card swipes, not where those swipes are occurring) and numbers out of that group so far in CQ1 have been positive (w/upside reports out of AXP and V/Visa).  Other earnings highlights over the last week include CSX (solid Q and Hunter Harrison provided positive guidance), IBM (pretty weak all around w/soft revs and margin downside), EBAY (decent Q1 but weaker Q2 guide), NFLX (some noise w/Q1 subs light and better Q2 guide but the H1 numbers in aggregate were about inline), and VZ (the big focus was the very weak subscriber metrics; the sub results would have been even worse had VZ not unveiled its unlimited data plans in the middle of the Q).

    * * *

    Finally, a focus just on US events in the coming week, together with consensus and Goldman estimates

    Monday, April 24

    • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, April (consensus +17.0, last +16.9)
    • 11:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will give the keynote speech at the 6th Annual Fink Investing Conference at UCLA in California. Audience Q&A is expected.
    • 03:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated discussion at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont. Audience Q&A is expected.

    Tuesday, April 25

    • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.9%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 1.1% in the February report following a 0.9% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which rose to 5.7% from 5.5% in January.
    • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.4%, last flat): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% (mom sa) in February, after a flat reading in January. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 5.7% in January, down from 6.2% in December.
    • 10:00 AM New home sales, March (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.4%, last +6.1%): We expect new home sales to fall 2.0% in March, retracing some of its 6.1% February increase, as we expect the negative impact of Winter Storm Stella in the Midwest and Northeast to be partially offset by a favorable fundamental backdrop and an elevated level of single-family building permits.
    • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 121.0, consensus 123.0, last 125.6): We forecast that consumer confidence declined 4.6pt to 121.0 in April from the cycle high in March. Our forecast reflects some sequential deterioration in consumer surveys in late March and early April, as well as recent stock market weakness.
    • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +16, last +22)

    Wednesday, April 26

    • There are no major data releases.

    Thursday, April 27

    • 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report: Advance goods trade balance, March preliminary (GS -$65.9bn, consensus -$65.4bn, last -$63.9bn); We estimate the goods trade deficit widened $2.0bn to $65.9bn in March, following February’s sharp narrowing that we believe reflected a pronounced impact from the relatively early Chinese New Year, which likely shifted the timing of imports from February to January. Based on our expectation of a partial reversal of these effects as well as a (likely related) sharp rebound in March inbound container traffic, we expect renewed deterioration in the trade balance. At the same time, lower March oil prices should reduce the nominal petroleum deficit, providing a partial offset.
    • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, March preliminary (consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, March preliminary (GS +2.1%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.8%) ; Durable goods orders ex-transportation, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, March preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, March preliminary (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.0%): We estimate durable goods orders rose 2.1% in March, driven by higher non-defense aircraft orders indicated by stronger company-reported data. We believe the details of the report are likely to be mixed. Manufacturing production was soft in March, exhibiting a 0.2% pullback in ex-auto manufacturing and a 0.4% drop in the capex-sensitive business equipment category. Chinese New Year effects may also weigh on core capital goods shipments growth, to the extent that they boosted the February level. At the same time, capital goods company results and commentary have been encouraging, with mounting evidence of accelerating growth in the industrial economy. Accordingly, we estimate softer shipments, but firmer orders in March, with month-to-month growth rates of -0.1% and +0.5%, respectively. We estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation rose 0.4%.
    • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 22 (GS 245k, consensus 243k, last 244k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 15 (consensus 2,010k, last 1,979k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged up 1k to 245k. Claims have returned to normal levels following two weeks of temporary elevation in mid-to-late March that likely reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue.
    • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, March (GS +0.5%, consensus -1.0%, last +5.5%): Regional housing data released so far suggest the improvement in February contract signings continued into March, despite unseasonably cold temperatures and above-average snowfall. We expect a 0.5% increase in the pending homes sales index, adding to the 5.5% increase in the prior month. Stable-to-higher March pending homes sales would be particularly encouraging in the context of higher mortgage rates, which incidentally have declined so far in April after reaching a two-year high in mid-March. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
    • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, April (consensus +16, last +20)

    Friday, April 28

    • 08:30 AM GDP (advance), Q1 (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.1%, last +2.1%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +1.3%, consensus +0.9%, last +3.5%): We expect a +1.4% increase in the first vintage of Q1 GDP (qoq saar), driven by a double-digit increase in residential investment (+12.6%) and a robust pace of growth in business fixed investment (+6.9%), partially offset by a negative growth contribution from inventory investment (-0.7pp) and net exports (-0.1pp). Accordingly, our growth estimate for the domestic final sales component is somewhat firmer at +2.1%. We look for real personal consumption to rise 1.3%, aided by a late-quarter boost to utilities consumption that reflects the impact of unseasonably cold weather in March.
    • 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.5%); We estimate that growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated to 0.7% in Q1 (qoq sa) from 0.5% in Q4, with the year-over-year pace rising to 2.3% (from 2.2%). Our forecast mainly reflects firming wage growth in an economy at or near full employment. The ECI rose a softer-than-expected 0.5% in the fourth quarter, and the headline measure appears to have overshot to the downside relative to underlying wage growth in the ECI sample. Wages and salaries excluding incentive-paid occupations actually firmed last quarter, rising 2.5% year over year vs. 2.4% in Q3. This suggests some scope for the gap to close (or overshoot in the other direction) in Q1. Relatedly, we see scope for improving wage growth in sales and related occupations and in the administrative and support services industries, where wages and salaries exhibited rare outright declines last quarter.  Wage growth data has generally been stable-to-higher so far in 2017, most notably the Atlanta Fed wage tracker, which rose to 3.4% year over year in March. Our broader Q1 wage tracker rose 2.9% year over year in Q1, up from 2.8% in Q4 and compared to the Q4 ECI of +2.2% (yoy). Taken together, our base case expectation is that growth in the Employment Cost Index will round up to +0.7%.
    • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, April (GS 57.0, consensus 56.5, last 57.7): We expect the Chicago PMI to decrease to 57.0 in April after the index edged up to 57.7 in March. Despite expected sequential softness, the index is likely to remain at a level consistent with growth in the manufacturing sector, in line with the reports of other regional manufacturing surveys in April.
    • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, April final (GS 97.5, consensus 98.0, last 98.0): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to pull back 0.5pt to 97.5 in the April final estimate, reflecting some sequential deterioration in April consumer surveys. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations was unchanged at 2.4%. With gas prices rebounding in April, the related technical drag on reported inflation expectations should be limited.
    • 01:15 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “Fintech and the Future of Finance” at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Illinois. Audience Q&A is expected.
    • 02:30 Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will give a speech on “How STEM Can Get You Anywhere” at the X-STEM Symposium in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected.

    Source: JPM, Goldman, SocGen

  • FX Volatility Crashes As Traders Unwind "Existential Euro" Hedges

    Heading into today's vote, FX options markets had seen massive demand for downside protection against a result that threatened the euro's existence. That didn't happen and so those hedges are being unwound en masse with the biggest drop in EURUSD implied vols in history…

     

    Close up, 1mo EURUSD vols erased all the damage from the last few weeks' fears…

     

    And Risk-Reversals (which measure the skew or relative demand for downside protection over upside), have spiked back to near 'normal' levels…

     

    Notably EURJPY (which was one of the biggest movers tonight) has begun to fade quite significantly…

     

    Retracing 50% of its spike as the world wakes up to debt ceiling concerns and what the ECB will do…

  • How Did NY Gov. Cuomo Make $783,000 From A Book That Sold Only 3,200 Copies?

    Fox News Channel parent News Corporation may be wrapped up in the sexual harassment accusations surrounding host Bill O’Reilly, but, as International Business Times' Lydia O'Neal reports, the company is facing another long-running scandal involving what appear to be exuberant payments to a Democrat – payments that occurred even as News Corp. was lobbying the New York State executive branch, which Gov. Andrew Cuomo oversees.

    The New York governor, whose memoir was published by the News Corp.-owned HarperCollins in 2014, saw his gross income more than double last year, to $417,748 for 2016 (from $196,243 the year before), the Buffalo News reported Tuesday. Cuomo attributed $218,100 of that increase to sales of his memoir, “All Things Possible: Setbacks and Successes in Politics and Life.”

    In 2015, the governor reportedly earned zero income from book sales and in the nearly three years that it's been on the market, it has sold just 3,200 copies. But Cuomo, the Buffalo News found, reported that he received a total of $783,000 from HarperCollins in book sales over the past three years,  a number that would translate to royalty payments of nearly $244.69 per copy.

    Today, the book was selling on Amazon for $8.45.

     

    A spokesperson for Gov. Cuomo told International Business Times, “This payment was contractual and per the agreement with the publisher.” A spokesperson from HarperCollins said the publisher does not “comment on financial matters relating to our books.” News Corp. did not respond to IBT requests for comment.

    News Corp., in the meantime, was registered as a lobbying client as recently as December 2016, according to the New York State government lobbying database. The mass media company, created and headed by Executive Chairman and former CEO Rupert Murdoch, has a long history of lobbying Cuomo’s office for the passage of bills beneficial to its businesses, as previously reported by IBT.

    Government documents reviewed by IBTimes show that News Corp. and its subsidiary Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc., through the law firm Greenberg Traurig, put tens of thousands of dollars behind efforts related to state legislation from the executive branch that affected the media industry, while paying Cuomo book royalties.

    Read more here…

  • Outrage After At Least 5 EU Nations Elect Saudi Arabia On UN Women's Rights Council

    In what may have been the biggest trolling of the United Nations in recent history, Saudi Arabia was elected via secret ballot in the UN Economic and Social Council to the 45-member UN Commission on the Status of Women last week. According to Reuters, twelve other countries were also elected by the council in Geneva to serve for a four-year term, ending in 2022: Algeria, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Iraq, Japan, South Korea, Turkmenistan, Ecuador, Haiti and Nicaragua.

    The news promptly sparked mocking and ridicule. UN Watch, a human rights organization monitoring the performance of the United Nations, strongly condemned the appointment of Saudi Arabia to post,citing Riyadh’s poor women’s rights record and widespread gender inequality.

    “Electing Saudi Arabia to protect women’s rights is like making an arsonist into the town fire chief. It’s absurd,” Hillel Neuer, the UN Watch chief, said.

    Every Saudi woman “must have a male guardian who makes all critical decisions on her behalf, controlling a woman’s life from her birth until death. Saudi Arabia also bans women from driving cars,” Neuer added.

    Who voted for Saudi Arabia? At least 5 EU nations based on UN Watch math: “Neuer said that seven of the 54 council states did not vote for Saudi Arabia, and that, based on his count, five of the 12 EU states on the council voted in favor of Saudi Arabia. It received the least amount of votes out of all of the 13 newly approved members, he added.”

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    Twitter users were just as amazed at the news:

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    According to its website, the CSW with Saudi Arabia now its latest official member, is aimed at “promoting women’s rights, documenting the reality of women’s lives throughout the world, and shaping global standards on gender equality and the empowerment of women,”according to its website. Saudi Arabia’s bid to be elected to the UN Commission on the Status of Women was made in September 2016. At the time, the country referred to its record on women’s rights protection, which goes “in accordance with Sharia, which guarantees fair gender equality.”

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    “Saudi discrimination against women is gross and systematic in law and in practice. Every Saudi woman must have a male guardian who makes all critical decisions on her behalf, controlling a woman’s life from her birth until death. Saudi Arabia bans women from driving cars,” Neuer raged. “Why did the UN choose the world’s leading promoter of gender inequality to sit on its gender equality commission?”

    While the answer was unclear, it involves a dollar sign, lots of zeroes and even greater promises for future “investment” in said 5 EU countries.

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