Feb 24

Today’s News 24th February 2022

  • Global Markets Unravel As Putin Launches "Military Operation" In Ukraine
    Global Markets Unravel As Putin Launches “Military Operation” In Ukraine

    As Russian President Putin announces a “special military operation” in Ukraine and warns of “consequences” for foreign interference, global markets are turmoiling.

    US equity futures are rapidly extending losses from the day session, down around 2-3% since the close…

    This pushes Nasdaq into a bear market.

    VIX futures have spiked above 32…

    Bitcoin is getting hammered…

    Oil is soaring with WTI above $95…

    …and Brent tops $100…

    US NatGas is spiking back near $5…

    And gold topped $1930…

    Wheat futures are up over 5%…

    Bonds are also bid with 10Y yields down around 8bps from yesterday’s highs now…

    Rate-hike odds are falling significantly. The odds of a 50bps hike in March has dropped to 25% (from 40% earlier) and the odds of 7 rate-hikes by Dec 2022 is now down to 20% from 55% earlier…

    Ruble forwards are crashing to new record lows against the dollar…

    Stagflation here we come!!

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 23:11

  • How Eisenhower Predicted Fauci
    How Eisenhower Predicted Fauci

    Authored by Rafi Eis,

    If it wasn’t obvious before, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that science has become thoroughly politicized. Though normally focused on observable and verifiable causes and effects in the natural world, many scientists, especially government employed ones, have taken on a political role and have shaped scientific findings in the service of those political ends. The truth eventually came out, but at a massive cost to people’s mental health, finances and trust.

    President Dwight Eisenhower foresaw this abuse by government scientists, and he shows us the way out.

    Public health officials initially insisted on the wet-market origin story for the novel coronavirus, but the lab-leak theory has become just as plausible. Cloth masks once deemed essential are now labeled “facial decorations.” Schools have opened without becoming super spreaders. A John Hopkins University study recently concluded that lockdowns had a minuscule impact on virus morbidity.

    With all of these issues, some of the federal government’s top scientists made a concerted effort to stifle debate. Dr. Francis Collins, the former head of the National Institutes of Health, requested a “devastating takedown” of those who disagreed with his insistence on lockdowns, referring to dissenting scholars from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford as “fringe.” He and other public health officials selectively ignored real data. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) and chief medical adviser to the president, declared that “attacks on me, quite frankly, are attacks on science.”

    Collins’ approach and Fauci’s sentiment are exactly what President Eisenhower warned the American public about in his Farewell Address.

    He advised vigilance against the “danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

    These “task forces of scientists,” Eisenhower cautioned, would lead to the “domination of the nation’s scholars.”

    One reason that so few infectious disease scientists disagreed with Fauci is quite simple: the power of money. America offers around $5 billion per year to support infectious disease research, and almost all of it runs through the agency led by Collins and Fauci. Any infectious disease researcher would therefore be disinclined to run afoul of Dr. Fauci, as future grant funding or professional advancement may depend on the director’s approval. Grants like those from NIAID give the project a stamp of legitimacy and open the door to other supporters. This system offers Fauci monopoly-like power over infectious disease research.

    Research scientists then toe the line, or at least remain silent. This creates the appearance of unanimous agreement as, in Eisenhower’s words, “a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity.”

    It is hard to prove intentional silence.

    But there are signs.

    When mask mandates were first introduced, for example, numerous virologists should have pointed to published RCT studies that cast doubt on masks’ effectiveness in preventing transmission of airborne viruses. One May 2020 CDC paper “did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility.”

    Likewise, the World Health Organization’s 2019 program for an influenza pandemic does not recommend facemask use for the non-symptomatic or uninfected, and only recommends business and school closures in the most severe circumstances, even while acknowledging that these measures lack good evidence of effectiveness. This too was missing from COVID policy discussions.

    Ike correctly assessed that “the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop” is no longer the driving force behind scientific and technological progress. Research has become more “formalized, complex and costly.” A 21st-century Benjamin Franklin can no longer purchase the expensive equipment or devote the time needed to make world-changing inventions or discoveries. Therefore, an “increasing share [of research] is conducted for, by or at the direction of the federal government.”

    But it is still possible to steer clear of the dangers of politicized bias in science by maintaining the core of scientific inquiry: “intellectual curiosity.” Intellectual curiosity is what enables us to figure out the truth of the reality that confronts us.

    A pivot towards government research grants need not remove “the solitary inventor” from the picture. Those inventors may not be able to conduct the research on their own, but they can surely analyze the data. Government funded scientific data should always be open for scrutiny, because transparency enables the curious to understand the truth for themselves. Time and again, public officials attempted to force consensus over COVID. Government funded research that encourages competition and debate, rather than uniformity of thought, can help us figure out the truth.

    But Ike proposed a second, more important principle. To avoid the “domination of the nation’s scholars” he declared that “it is the task of statesmanship to mold, to balance, and to integrate these and other forces, new and old, within the principles of our democratic system-ever aiming toward the supreme goals of our free society.” Scientists can tell us their best understanding of reality and its consequences, like the dangers of a new virus. But multifaceted decisions that affect people in different ways, such as closing schools or businesses, are not questions of science but judgements about the best way to navigate reality. That is the role of politicians elected by the people.

    While the scientist may be able to predict the consequences of some of our decisions, it is the statesman who must create policy that balances various needs, especially the tradeoff between freedom and safety. What should the quarantine policy be for COVID-exposed children in schools? Should hospital workers be obliged to get vaccinated? This requires a deliberative process, one best suited for legislative bodies.

    Eisenhower issued two warnings in his Farewell Address: “the acquisition of unwarranted influence…by the military-industrial complex” and “that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

    The aimless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrated the danger of the former, while the coronavirus pandemic has forced us to witness the latter.

    Ike was prescient.

    We cannot return to a bygone era and dismantle these systems, but we can be more aware of the forces at play and be wiser. The current pushback against American engagement in Ukraine is more forceful than the leadup to the Iraq conflict because we saw the experts mislead us and fail.

    The next time a scientific scare comes rolling around, we must passionately seek truth and demand that our elected leaders courageously represent the people.

    *  *  *

    Rafi Eis is the executive director of the Herzl Institute.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 23:00

  • "Terrific Bill": Aussie PM Backs Ban On Trans Women In Female Sports
    “Terrific Bill”: Aussie PM Backs Ban On Trans Women In Female Sports

    Authored by Nina Nguyen via The Epoch Times,

    Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has backed a bill that would give women and girls the right to play single-sex sports by making it legal to ask a male competitor not to play in the female category.

    Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison discusses travel restrictions during a press conference in Canberra, Australia, on Oct. 1, 2021. (Lukas Coch/AAP Image via AP)

    Tasmanian Senator Claire Chandler, an advocacy for women’s sports,  proposed the “Save Women’s Sport Bill” to parliament on Feb. 10. Chandler said it is “unacceptable” that the current Commonwealth laws threaten sports clubs and associations with legal action if they exclude males from women’s sports.

    “The Sex Discrimination and Other Legislation Amendment (save Women’s Sport) Bill 2022 I am introducing today will make clear that single-sex sport for women is lawful, encouraged and supported by the parliament of Australia,” she said.

    “What it does do is seek to restore respect for women’s rights and acknowledge the long-understood reality that categorisation by sex is important in the vast majority of sports.”

    She added that the bill “does not seek to ‘ban’ anybody from playing sport” as it also allows sporting codes to offer a range of categories and competitions to maximise participation and inclusion.

    Liberal Senator Claire Chandler makes her maiden speech in the Senate Chamber at Parliament House Canberra, Australia, on July 23, 2019. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

    On Feb. 22, Morrison said he endorsed Chandler’s proposal when asked about his thoughts on the bill at a press conference in the Tasmanian marginal seat of Lyons.

    “I support it, I think it is a terrific bill and I’ve given her great encouragement,” he told reporters.

    “Claire is a champion for women’s sports and I think she has been right to raise these issues in the way that she has.”

    National LGBTIQ+ group Equality Australia on Feb. 22 criticised the prime minister for “again making the lives of trans and gender diverse kids the subject of political and media debate.”

    “This is completely unacceptable, particularly when this group of people already experience disproportionate levels of discrimination, marginalisation and social isolation,” said Anna Brown, CEO of Equality Australia in a media release to The Epoch Times.

    Equality Australia called Chandler’s bill “cruel and divisive,” arguing “sport should be for everyone.”

    “This is completely unacceptable, particularly when this group of people already experience disproportionate levels of discrimination, marginalisation and social isolation.”

    Lia Thomas, a transgender woman, swims for the University of Pennsylvania at an Ivy League swim meet against Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on January 22, 2022. (Photo by Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty Images)

    The debate of transgender women’s inclusion in women’s sports has been dominating the global sports arena in the past few years, with concerns raised about unfair advantages of biological males and the censorship of female athletes speaking up in support of single-sex sports.

    In early February, 16 members of the Pennsylvania women’s swimming team wrote in a letter that if trans female swimmer Lia Thomas were to be eligible to compete against female swimmers, Thomas could break Penn, Ivy and NCAA Women’s Swimming records; “feats she could never have done as a male athlete.”

    The swimmers revealed they had been told if they spoke out against Thomas’s inclusion into women’s competitions, they “would be removed from the team or that we would never get a job offer.”

    Katherine Deves, co-founder of Save Women’s Sports Australasia, told The Epoch Times on Nov. 23, 2021, that it is “a false premise” to assume that trans people are marginalised as evidence shows “transgender lobby groups have huge influence and power” over the government and the media.

    “There is no sort of measurements or tests to determine what someone’s gender identity is; it’s all based on a self-declaration,” Deves noted.

    The previous federal Labor government replaced the sex-based definitions of “man” and “women” in the Sex Discrimination Act in 2013 with gender identity and created provisions that grant male-born athletes the right to take legal action if they are barred from the women’s category.

    In October 2020, eight peak sporting bodies implemented policies and guidelines to allow biological male athletes to participate in women’s sports.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 22:20

  • Putin Launches "Special Military Operation" In Ukraine, Kiev Calls It "Full-Scale Invasion"
    Putin Launches “Special Military Operation” In Ukraine, Kiev Calls It “Full-Scale Invasion”

    LIVE FEED of multiple cameras from across Ukraine:

    LIVE FEED from Kiev:

    Russian Ministry of Defense: “Military infrastructure, air defense facilities, military airfields and aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being put out of action by high-precision means of destruction.”

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    • RUSSIA IS ATTACKING UKRAINE’S MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE WITH HIGH-PRECISION WEAPONS – RIA CITES RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY
    • RUSSIA SAYS IT’S TARGETING UKRAINE ANTI-AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS: IFX
    • RUSSIA: USING HIGH PRECISION STRIKES ON UKRAINE MILITARY: IFX
    • ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE IS INTRODUCING MARTIAL LAW
    • UKRAINE IMPOSES MARTIAL LAW ACROSS THE COUNTRY: ZELENSKIY
    • RUSSIAN DEFMIN: NO THREAT TO UKRAINE POPULATION: TASS
    • UKRAINE PRESIDENT SAYS RUSSIA CARRIED OUT MISSILE STRIKES ON OUR INFRASTRUCTURE AND ON OUR BORDER GUARDS
    • RUSSIAN-BACKED REBELS SAY START ATTACK ON UKRAINE-CONTROLLED TOWN NEAR LUHANSK – IFAX

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    Ukraine is urging the following action:

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    Tulsi Gabbard weighs in:

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    Reports are coming in that the Russians have taken over an air base and/or airport near Kiev, possibly with the aim of taking out command and control centers supporting operations in Donbas.

    • RUSSIAN MILITARY CARRYING OUT AIRSTRIKES ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY COMPOUNDS AND COMMUNICATION CENTERS NEAR KYIV
    • UKRAINE TO IMPOSE MARTIAL LAW – TOP SECURITY OFFICIAL, ACCORDING TO LOCAL MEDIA
    • UKRAINE INTERIOR MINISTRY URGES CITIZENS TO HIDE IN SHELTERS
    • INTERIOR MINISTRY WARNS UKRAINE CAPITAL OF MISSILE ATTACK

    Ukraine is saying Russia’s operation is expending beyond the east, which Putin had previously proclaimed as independent territory. It’s increasingly looking like Russia is taking out all main military command and control centers across Ukraine, while focusing ground troops and manpower on Donbas. Strikes outside the east appear to be focused on neutralizing airfields so there’s no air retaliation. CNN is citing that its correspondents have heard strikes in seven cities across the country.

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    Update(10:30pmET): The White House is responding: “Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond…The world will hold Russia accountable,” Biden said in a late evening statement. Biden adds that he will address the crisis, vowing “further consequences” tomorrow:

    Statement by President Biden on Russia’s Unprovoked and Unjustified Attack on Ukraine

    The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces. President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.

    I will be monitoring the situation from the White House this evening and will continue to get regular updates from my national security team. Tomorrow, I will meet with my G7 counterparts in the morning and then speak to the American people to announce the further consequences the United States and our Allies and partners will impose on Russia for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security. We will also coordinate with our NATO Allies to ensure a strong, united response that deters any aggression against the Alliance. Tonight, Jill and I are praying for the brave and proud people of Ukraine.

    CNN is citing Ukraine’s Interior Ministry to say Russian missiles have hit locations in Kiev; however, this remains unclear. There’s conjecture that Russia could be targeting Ukraine military “command and control” centers.

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    Russia’s ambassador to the UN told the emergency security council meeting: “We are not calling it a war, we are calling a special military operation” in Donbas.

    Meanwhile…

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    Airspace is closed over Ukraine to all commercial air traffic:

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    * * *

    Update(10:00pmET): At the very moment an emergency session of the UN national security council was in session in New York, Putin gave a speech ordering “a special operation in Donbas”. Russian state media is also confirming. “I have declared a special military operation,” Putin said. Fox News is reporting that Russian forces have entered Ukraine from Crimea.

    Putin announced the Russian military action to ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine.” And further he provocatively asserted:

    “We decided to launch a special military action […] aimed at demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.”

    “The circumstances make us take decisive and immediate actions. The people’s republics of Donbas asked Russia for assistance,” Putin said. “In this regard, in accordance with Article 51, Part 7 of the UN Charter, with the sanction of the Federation Council and in pursuance of the friendship and mutual assistance treaties with the DPR and LPR, ratified by the Federal Assembly, I have decided to conduct a special military operation.” He told Ukrainians to “lay down their arms.” 

    Crucially, he said that Russia has “no intentions of occupying Ukraine.”

    The AP is further confirming “President Vladimir Putin says Russia will conduct a military operation in eastern Ukraine.” Putin warned in his televised speech, “A couple of words for those who would be tempted to intervene. Russia will respond immediately and you will have consequences that you never have had before in your history.”

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    The following details are coming across the news wires:

    • PUTIN CALLS ON UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS TO IMMEDIATELY LAY DOWN THEIR WEAPONS AND GO HOME -TASS
    • RUSSIA’S PUTIN SAYS IN CASE OF FOREIGN INTERFERENCE, RUSSIA WILL REACT IMMEDIATELY – TASS
    • RUSSIAN FORCES ENTERING UKRAINE FROM CRIMEA IN THE SOUTH -FOX NEWS
    • PUTIN SAYS RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY BLOODSHED WILL BE ON THE CONSCIENCE “OF THE UKRAINAIN REGIME” – RIA NEWS AGENCY

    CNN and other Western correspondents are claiming to have heard blasts in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev – with their live reporter dramatically donning a helmet and flack jacket, after which everything appeared calm…

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    * * *

    Update(8:26pmET): Russian aviation authorities have ordered some airspace over the Rostov region closed. The region impacted is just to the east of Russia’s border with Ukraine. According to an official alert this is “in order to provide safety” for civil aviation flights.

    Further a new Reuters report indicates airlines in the West have begun to receive updated flight risk alerts for the region. “Airlines should stop flying over any part of Ukraine because of the risk of an unintended shootdown or a cyber attack targeting air traffic control amid tensions with Russia, a conflict zone monitor said on Wednesday,” the late Wednesday report reads. 

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    According to further details from the air traffic monitor:

    Safe Airspace, which was set up to provide safety and conflict zone information for airlines after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014, said it had increased its risk level to “do not fly”.

    “Regardless of the actual movements of Russian forces into Ukraine, the level of tension and uncertainty in Ukraine is now extreme,” Safe Airspace said on its website. “This itself gives rise to significant risk to civil aviation.”

    International and European carriers are now being warned about the potential for conflict in Ukraine, with fresh reports they’ve been issued “do not fly” orders for much of the region.

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    Additionally the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had already issued an alert as of almost two weeks ago warning that a cross-border conflict could erupt at any moment, endangering the skies over the region.

    * * *

    As the ground war heats up on the frontline in Donbas, we could be hours away from seeing Russian regular forces clash with the Ukrainian Army, after late at night local time the heads of the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway republics issued a formal request for immediate military help from Moscow. 

    The pro-Russia rebel leaders said the urgent military help is necessary to repel Ukrainian “aggression” – according to The Associated Press, after Kremlin officials confirmed the letter. “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the rebel chiefs wrote to Russian President Vladimir Putin to tell him that shelling by the Ukrainian military has caused civilian deaths and forced many people to flee,” AP reports.

    Head of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin, via Reuters

    It comes less than 24 hours after Russian parliament issued formal approval for Putin to deploy military forces abroad. Latvia said earlier on Wednesday it has intelligence confirming the arrival of Russian tanks, troops, and armored vehicles in Donbas.

    The appeal from the two eastern Ukraine republics raises the specter of Russia’s military entering direct combat operations with Ukrainian forces. From there it’s easier to imagine things spinning out of control and escalating to the point of fighting going beyond the war-torn Donbas region.

    At the same time, Ukraine has now requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, according to an overnight statement by its foreign minister. 

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    According to brief details cited in Bloomberg based on breaking Interfax reports:

    • Leaders sent letters to Putin
    • Not clear what specific aggression the separatist appeal refers to
    • Ukraine has repeatedly said it have no plans for military offensive against the separatists

    Based on Putin’s lengthy and bellicose speech that accompanied independence recognition for the republics, it’s very likely the Russian leader will pull the trigger on this.

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    And some further worrying signs at a moment things on the ground are likely about to get more and more unpredictable…

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    “We officially declare that Ukraine has not planned and does not plan any sabotage actions at this facility and refute all allegations in this regard,” Ukrainian intelligence officials said in a statement. 

    All of this comes at a moment of major websites and banks in some cases being offline in Ukraine, following an earlier reported major cyberattack. 

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    developing…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 22:00

  • Visualizing The One-Percent's Huge Carbon Footprint
    Visualizing The One-Percent’s Huge Carbon Footprint

    The world’s richest ten percent are responsible for an estimated 47 percent share of global CO2 emissions. This is the result of a recent study published in the journal Nature Sustainability, which focused on how alleviating poverty worldwide would impact carbon emissions. As Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, the difference between the poorest and wealthiest people not only shows in their emission share.

    On average, a person filed under the lower 50 percent income group only produces about one ton of CO2 per year compared to about 48 tons of carbon dioxide per capita emitted by the wealthiest one percent.

    Infographic: The One Percent's Huge Carbon Footprint | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Of course, the results are different depending on the region. In Europe, for example, the bottom 50 percent had a higher estimated share of total emissions than the top ten percent, while the top one percent in Sub-Saharan Africa induced more carbon emissions than the bottom 50 percent.

    While combating poverty around the world would entail a coordinated effort and logistical challenges, its effects on global warming would be minimal according to the study. Lifting more than one billion people above the poverty line under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 1 would only raise the estimated global CO2 output by roughly two percent, even though carbon emissions in low to lower-middle income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa could potentially double.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 22:00

  • Trudeau Revokes Emergency Powers Act
    Trudeau Revokes Emergency Powers Act

    Watch live:

    And here, he says he’s ‘confident that existing laws and bylaws are now sufficient to keep people safe.’

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    Two days after Canadian lawmakers voted to extend emergency powers allowing police to quell potential unrest, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is now set to revoke them now that the Ottawa protest is over, according to the Canadian Press, citing two senior government sources.

    Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act for the first time last week, saying police required additional support to end blockades.

    We assume that bank accounts of Freedom Convoy supporters are still subject to being frozen.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 21:44

  • Putin May Swap More Dollars for Yuan Amid Tensions
    Putin May Swap More Dollars for Yuan Amid Tensions

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live commentator and analyst

    The U.S. expanded sanctions against Russia on Wednesday after President Vladimir Putin moved to recognize breakaway territories in Ukraine as independent states. The standoff may further Moscow’s de-dollarization movement and see the Chinese yuan play a more-important role in Russia’s trade and finance.

    The initial global implications from the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia tensions was to add to the inflation trouble that many parts of the world are already struggling with. Inflation expectationsembedded in the U.S. two-year breakeven rate surged to a record, while the probability of a 50bp move at the Fed meeting next month inched up. Bloomberg’s commodities index hit the highest since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea. The Crimea crisis didn’t have a persistent impact on global markets, but Russia’s strongerfinancial position, including larger foreign reserves and higher energy prices, means it can sustain more sanction pain.

    A byproduct of the sanctions is that they are likely to force Russia to further reduce the role of the dollar in its economy, a move that started when the West imposed restrictions following the Crimea annexation eight years ago. The dollar’s share of Russia’s foreign-currency reserves, currently at $640 billion, has declined to 16% in 2021 from 46% in 2017. In comparison, the yuan’s share rose to 13%, from less than 3%, while the euro’s gained to 32% from 22%.

    Source: UBS

     
    The U.S. currency’s dominance in Russia’s trade payments has also diminished. Its share in Russia’s export receipts has declined from 69% in 2016 to 56% in the first half of 2021, while the euro’s doubled to 28%, according to a study by UBS’s economist Anna Zadornova.

    The de-dollarization trend is more clear in Russia’s trade with China, its second largest trading partner after the EU. The dollar’s share in Russia’s export to China has declined from nearly 100% in 2013 to about 40% currently, according to UBS. Its import share also dropped from 90% to 60%.

    Source: UBS

    The current geopolitical crisis puts Beijing in a delicate situation as it seeks to support Russia against the U.S. while also portraying itself as a responsible global power. And as Natixis’s economists Alicia Garcia Herrero and Jianwei Xu noted, a closer trade relationship with China isn’t likely to fully offset the impact of increasing decoupling from EU. Still, Russia may be testing grounds for Beijing’s push to internationalize the yuan.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 21:40

  • There Are Only 21 "Full Democracies" In The World (And USA Is Not One Of Them)
    There Are Only 21 “Full Democracies” In The World (And USA Is Not One Of Them)

    The Economist Democracy Index rates countries on the state of their governing system each year. In the latest installment published, only 21 countries in the world were rated as “full democracies” (down from 23 in 2020), including all Scandinavian countries, several Western European nations as well as Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Uruguay, Mauritius, Costa Rica, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

    France and Portugal went back to flawed status in 2020 after having spent just one year in the highest section, and there they remained in 2021.

    Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon and Haiti were also demoted in the latest index, exiting the “hybrid regime” category and becoming authoritarian.

    The EIU stated that overall, democracy around the world hit an all-time low with the average score of countries sinking to 5.28 from 5.37 the previous year – an even larger drop than that recorded between 2019 and 2020.

    Infographic: The State of Democracy | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The sharp decline in the North America average score in 2021 was driven mainly by a deterioration in Canada, whose score fell by 0.37 points to 8.87. New survey data show a worrying trend of disaffection among Canada’s citizens with traditional democratic institutions and increased levels of support for non-democratic alternatives, such as rule by experts or the military. Canada’s citizens feel that they have little control over their lives, a sentiment that has been compounded by pandemic-related restrictions on individual freedoms. Canada’s worsening score raises questions about whether it might begin to suffer from some of the same afflictions as its US neighbour, such as extremely low levels of public trust in political parties and government institutions.

    The US score declined further as its new president Joe Biden, struggled to arrest the democratic decline that has occurred over the past few decades. At the end of 2021, Mr Biden hosted the first of two Summits for Democracy, whose aim is to revive democracy globally. Given the tarnishing of America’s democratic credentials in recent years, the initiative elicited cynicism in many parts of the world.

    The US score for our “citizens control” indicator (gauging the degree to which citizens feel they have control over their lives) continued to fall in 2021, following a trend that emerged in 2020 amid the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Much of this decline reflected pandemic fatigue and growing resistance to coronavirus restrictions after previous measures were rolled back earlier in 2021. For example, a Morning Consult poll conducted in late November 2021 found that only 44% of American adults supported closing businesses and government facilities to combat the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, while more than 70% supported less restrictive measures, such as social distancing and mask wearing.

    The countries rated most poorly were Afghanistan, Myanmar and North Korea.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 21:20

  • Our Financial System Is Optimized For Sociopaths And Exploitation
    Our Financial System Is Optimized For Sociopaths And Exploitation

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Let’s call this financial system what it really is: the MetaPerverse, a conjured world of self-serving cons.

    We live in a peculiar juncture of history in which truth has been banished as a threat to the maximization of private gain, i.e. the hyper-pursuit of self-interest. Evidence that supports a causal chain has been replaced by cherry-picked data that supports a self-serving narrative: both the evidence and narrative are manufactured to serve the interests of the few at the expense of the many.

    In this juncture of history, evidence is easily disputed because the process of manufacturing self-serving evidence has been perfected. Indeed, self-serving evidence is now a commodity which can be purchased wholesale: rig the sample size, massage the data statistically, conjure up a context that serves to frame the evidence in a slippery self-interested fashion, omit disinterested evidence and contexts, top with arcane math and voila, evidence and narrative are presented as “facts” rather than what they really are, an elaborate, well-staged con designed to maximize the private gains of the few by exploiting the many.

    Organizing the entire system to serve the pathological greed of the few is best served by devaluing truth to mere opinion and causal chains to mere narratives. In this juncture of history, truth has been revealed as a chimera; there is only opinion, and all opinions are equal. Opinions are beliefs, and all beliefs are equal. All narratives are equal. All questions boil down to values: values are all equally detached, free-floating and of the same value: zero.

    This con has reached perfection in our financial system, which is now optimized for exploitation and sociopaths. As Nassim Taleb has explained (referencing Adam Smith), markets only function if there are rules which are imposed equally on all participants. In our financial system, there are two sets of rules: one which we can summarize as anything goes for the super-wealthy and the well-connected, and another set for everyone else.

    Shear the sheep of billions, pay a modest fine–and if all your bets go bad, get bailed out because you’re too important to fail. Sneak a few thousand out of the credit union, go to prison. Sell a financial product that’s designed to go bust as low-risk, oh well, buyer beware, haha, that’s just the free market at work. Sell a nickel bag of drugs, get a tenner in the Gulag.

    Two sets of rules: one simulacrum of rules for the rich–just another con, really–and punitive rules for everyone else.

    Since evidence, causal chains and values have all been devalued, there is no longer any recognition that the desire for gain–greed–can be either exploitive or beneficial to the many. If your greed drives you to make a product that is faster, better, cheaper, more durable and efficient than what’s currently available, your gain is the result of an advance that serves the interests of the many.

    If your desire for gain leads you to misrepresent a shoddy product designed to fail (subprime mortgages, Landfill Economy products) or you raise the price because you can, your greed serves your interests at the expense of the many. This is the acme of exploitation. Kleptocrats and sociopaths, rejoice!

    This system is optimized for exploitation, as the exploiters can exploit the many without the many even recognizing they’ve been stripmined. We no longer have the means to differentiate fraud from fact or exploitation from rules-based markets.

    This landscape of wide-open exploitation and debauchery is Heaven on Earth for sociopaths who not only do not see any difference between gains skimmed at others’ expense and gains earned by providing a superior product / service, they revel in exploiting the system and every participant: employees, partners, suppliers, depositors, borrowers and customers.

    But in this desert of exploitation and the supremacy of self-interest, some things remain true and others remain false. Some truths remain self-evident. As I have shown here many times, we can look at the hourly wages and cost of essentials in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and the present and calculate how many hours of labor it took to pay for essentials such as rent, property taxes, healthcare, childcare, taxes, education, etc. These calculations reveal that the purchasing power of wages has declined for decades. This evidence cannot be made to vanish by declaring it opinion, belief or a “different set of values”–it is fact.

    If we measure prosperity by how much labor can buy, all but the top few wage earners are less prosperous today. The evidence and causal chain are self-evident. The self-interested few who have reaped the vast majority of the economy’s gains can hire shills to argue that since TVs now require fewer hours of labor to buy, we’re all better off, but these obfuscations are nothing more than distractions designed to divert our attention from the mechanisms of exploitation that are operating 24/7 beneath the ceaseless churn of “news” and “market action.”

    Let’s call this financial system what it really is: the MetaPerverse, a conjured world of self-serving cons that is optimized for exploitation, the perversion of justice, infinite inequality and the stripmining of the many to the benefit of the few, all securely protected by a cloud of confusion in which everything is equally valueless and truth no longer exists. All that remains is a babble of competing cons.

    *  *  *

    My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $8.95, print $20). If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 21:00

  • CBS Earns Blistering Ratio For Trying To Blame US Inflation On Ukraine Situation
    CBS Earns Blistering Ratio For Trying To Blame US Inflation On Ukraine Situation

    When legacy media outlets shill for an administration ahead of midterms, the propaganda is usually delivered in a semi-believable headline that doesn’t cause readers to immediately call bullshit.

    Not CBS…

    In a late Tuesday tweet, the network asserted that “The U.S. economy has been hit with increased gas prices, inflation, and supply-chain issues due to the Ukraine crisis.“

    Wait, what?

    That’s right – forget the last 6 months of Jen Psaki and President Biden pushing lies about ‘transitory’ price increases (blaming Covid and climate change, among other things). All you need to know, dear voter, is that Vladimir Putin is now to blame for the crippling inflation.

    Nevermind the price of oil and CPI for the last 18 months.

    Oh.

    The actual article itself is just as bad – with dramatic fear mongering and predictions of worse to come – all thanks to the Ukraine situation.

    CBS’s tweet was widely mocked, and earned a blistering ‘ratio’ (when comments far outweigh ‘likes’ – suggesting a tweet is way off base).

    Recall what Biden said less than 90 days ago – that supply chain challenges due to ‘global challenges like climate change and Covid’ were ‘making it difficult’ to produce simple items.

     Poso knows…

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    Maybe the Ukraine crisis can also explain the sky-high murder rates, the homelessness and fentanyl epidemics, and the poo-covered streets in Democrat-run US cities?

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 20:44

  • German Health Insurer Reveals 'Alarming' Underreporting Of Vaccine Side-Effects
    German Health Insurer Reveals ‘Alarming’ Underreporting Of Vaccine Side-Effects

    A large German health insurance provider revealed on Wednesday that Covid-19 vaccine side-effects are vastly underreported, according to Welt.

    After analyzing data from over 10 million individuals, BKK ProVita board member Andreas Schöfbeck, over a 7.5 month period beginning in early 2021, 216,695 policyholders out of 10.9 million were treated for vaccine side-effects. This compares to 244,576 reports out of 61.4 million reported by the Paul Ehrlich Institute – a German federal agency.

    Germany has a population of around 83 million people.

    Schöfbeck called the data an “alarm signal,” adding “The numbers determined are significant and urgently need to be checked for plausibility.”

    “The data available to our company gives us reason to believe that there is a very considerable under-recording of suspected cases of vaccination side-effects after they received the [COVID-19] vaccine.“

    “If these figures are applied to the year as a whole and to” the entire population of Germany, Schöfbeck estimated, then “probably 2.5-3 million people in Germany been under medical treatment because of vaccination side effects after [COVID-19] vaccination.”

    As Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times notes:

    Schöfbeck concluded that based on their data, “there is a significant underreporting of vaccination side-effects” in Germany.

    Another letter that was sent out by BKK (pdf) suggested that vaccination side effects reported across Germany are at least 10 times more common than what was reported by the Paul-Ehrlich Institute, reported the Nordkurier newspaper on Wednesday.

    Schöfbeck’s letters were also sent to Germany’s Standing Vaccination Commission and the German Medical Association.

    The letters did not elaborate on the severity of the side effects, nor did they provide a breakdown of the symptoms, or which vaccines caused the side effects. Germany’s drug regulator has approved COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, NovaVax, and Moderna.

    Federal health officials in the United States and Germany have stressed that COVID-19 vaccines’ benefits outweigh the potential risks.

    And the Paul Ehrlich Institute, the German federal health agency that regulates vaccines and medicines, asserts on its website that COVID-19 vaccine side effects are very rare. They list myocarditis, the inflammation of the heart muscle; and pericarditis, the inflammation of the pericardium, as rare side effects associated with COVID-19 vaccines.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 20:40

  • Russia Speaks Out Against High Oil Prices As Brent Nears $100
    Russia Speaks Out Against High Oil Prices As Brent Nears $100

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

    The optimal oil price for the market is $55-$70 per barrel, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov told Energy Intelligence in an interview published on Tuesday after oil prices hit a fresh seven-year high and Brent hit $99 a barrel early in the day amid an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

    High oil prices are good for Russia’s budget and for its hard-to-recover oil resources and projects, on the one hand, but oil so high is also hitting other sectors of the economy and slows demand growth, on the other hand, the Russian minister said.

    Asked why Russia doesn’t support more production from OPEC+ if Russia believes that $55-$70 is the optimal price, Shulginov told Energy Intelligence that the country is “increasing production within the agreed volumes.”

    Russia looks to increase production and exploration in the coming years, the minister added.

    Referring to Moscow’s plans about the Arctic Shelf, Shulginov told Energy Intelligence, “Although these are costly reserves, we still believe that Arctic resources can be utilized in future. The Arctic is a storeroom. There is not only oil, but also gas and potentially rare-earth metals.”

    Commenting on whether Russia is interested in high natural gas prices, the minister noted, “High prices are not beneficial for Gazprom and Russia at all, because then consumption decreases, purchases go down, the economy slows down. We are not in favor of high prices, we are in favor of stable supplies.”

    The latest escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis sent oil prices surging close to $100 a barrel early on Tuesday, with Brent Crude hitting a new seven-year high of $99 before easing to $97 per barrel. Europe’s natural gas prices also spiked, as the market fears a disruption to energy supplies from the major oil and gas exporter, Russia. The benchmark gas prices in Europe jumped by double digits after Germany said it was freezing the certification of the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 pipeline in light of the latest events.  

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 20:20

  • Mapping The De-'Squaw'-ing Of America's Derogatory Place Names
    Mapping The De-‘Squaw’-ing Of America’s Derogatory Place Names

    U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland in November formally declared the term “squaw” – denoting an American Indian woman – as derogatory.

    Now, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the Interior Department has published a list of more than 600 official geographic site names including the term that it plans to change.

    A public comment period on potential replacement names will run until late April, according to The Guardian.

    The list includes sites in 37 states. A high concentration of sites names using the term can be found in the American West, especially in Arizona, California and Idaho.

    Infographic: Derogatory Place Names: Where Changes Are Planned | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Deb Haaland is the first Native American cabinet secretary in the history of the United States.

    She is a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe and has previously served as a U.S. representative for her home state of New Mexico.

    The renaming of sites in order to eliminate offense towards native populations is not unprecedented. Australia has renamed several sites, the most well-known being Uluru, formerly Ayers Rock. New Zealand has since the 1940s been in a process of re-establishing official naming in the Maori language through reforms to the geographic board and public input processes.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 20:00

  • Watch: Bill Gates Sardonically Compares Wearing A Mask To Wearing Pants
    Watch: Bill Gates Sardonically Compares Wearing A Mask To Wearing Pants

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Bill Gates has mocked people who are against mask mandates by sarcastically comparing wearing one to having to wear pants in public.

    A maskless Gates along with a maskless panel at the 2022 Munich Security Conference laughed it up as they mocked people who point out the downside of face coverings.

    CNBC ‘jounalist’ Hadley Beale asked “What about masks? I think there are a lot of people in America who are confused about whether they should be wearing a mask, and in the United Kingdom for, example, they’ve scrapped that all together.”

    Gates replied “Well that’s interesting you know what is the downside of wearing a mask?”

    Adopting a sardonic tone, he then declared “I mean it’s got to be tough, you know, you have to wear pants. I mean this is tough stuff, these societies are so cruel, why do they make you wear pants? I’m trying to figure it out.”

    Then all five of them laughed it up as Beale added “We’re very glad you have yours on.”

    Yeah, doesn’t have a mask on though does he. 

    “That will be on the web, that will be on the web,” another panelist stated.

    Yes, because yet another example of unmasked elitists laughing at everyday people who protest their governments forcing them to cover up their faces in spite of science proving it does nothing to prevent the virus spreading is newsworthy:

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    Of course, this little nugget was an aside from Gates’ hours long diatribe about how his vaccines are the miracle cure and how its “sad” that people have become immune to the virus because it has mutated into milder strains.

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    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 19:40

  • USPS Shuns Biden's EV Dreams With Massive Gasoline-Powered Mail Truck Purchase
    USPS Shuns Biden’s EV Dreams With Massive Gasoline-Powered Mail Truck Purchase

    The Biden administration has been pressing the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to make a massive purchase commitment of electric delivery vehicles, though such plans were derailed Wednesday when the agency announced a majority of its next-generation fleet would be powered by gasoline rather than a battery, according to Bloomberg. 

    USPS’ record decision memo states that the agency will move ahead with its purchase of 165,000 mail trucks over the next decade. At least 90% of these trucks will be gasoline-powered built by Oshkosh Corp., and 10% will be electric.

    This action steamrolls the Biden administration’s pledge to replace its federal fleet of 600,000 cars and trucks with electric power. USPS operates 230,000 vehicles, which is approximately 33% of the government fleet. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a Trump ally, has firmly said the full electrification of the USPS fleet wouldn’t happen under his watch. Last year, he committed to converting only 10% of its new trucks to electric power.

    The decision allows USPS to purchase gasoline-powered trucks from Oshkosh under a $6 billion contract awarded last February. USPS rejected a bid from electric-vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group Inc. to electrify its fleet. Workhorse shares slumped as much as 3.5% today on the USPS news to purchase Oshkosh mail trucks. 

    USPS wrote that given its financial condition, “the battery-electric option has a significantly higher total cost of ownership than its combustion-engine counterpart.” 

    USPS under DeJoy appears to be locking in decades of fossil fuel consumption as the president’s “Build Back Better” green plan appears to be faltering. Gasoline mail trucks are more reliable than electric ones, and ownership is cheaper. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 19:20

  • The Fed's Problem: "It's All About The Money"
    The Fed’s Problem: “It’s All About The Money”

    By Joseph Carson, former CIO of Alliance Bernstein

    The Fed has a problem. It’s in the business of creating money, but it formulates monetary policy without regard to money itself. So in times when its policy decisions produced a record surge in broad money, policymakers are not attentive or alerted to the negative (inflation) consequences.

    From February 2020 to the end of 2021, broad money increased by $6.5 trillion or over 40%. That increase over less than two years is roughly equivalent to the rise over the previous ten years. Yet, policymakers who have long argued that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” called the surge in inflation transitory, owing to supply bottlenecks. Had policymakers still recognized money as a potential source of inflation, it would not be in the pickle that they find themselves today.

    Policymakers now face the unprecedented challenge of dealing with consumer and producer inflation and elevated asset prices (possibly bubbles.) Policymakers’ record on reversing inflation cycles and recognizing asset bubbles is lousy. Policy adjustments have always been late (except for Greenspan’s 1994 preemptive strike), resulting in awful economic and financial outcomes, some much worse than others.

    As bad as policy decisions were in the past year, it is reckless that policymakers are still easing policy today. Publicly saying the monetary policy is “wrong-footed” but not doing anything until the next policy meeting, a month away, is like saying we want the fire to burn some more before being compelled to distinguish it.

    Before the preemptive strike against emerging inflation pressures in 1994, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan stated in his semi-annual monetary policy testimony, ” if the Federal Reserve waits until actual inflation worsens, they would have waited far too long.” It’s too late to use Mr. Greenspan’s playbook, but policymakers still need to act swiftly. Some policymakers have argued that only a modest adjustment in official rates is needed because of well-anchored inflation expectations. That is short-sighted and wrong. Actual or realized inflation leads to changes in inflation expectations, not the other way around. Persistent inflation will increase inflation expectations over time.

    Several decades ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) created the monetary and financial flow index (MFF). It consisted of the growth in broad money (adjusted for inflation), change in business and consumer credit, and liquid assets. BEA stopped publishing this series in the early 1990s, and I recreated the series with assistance from BEA, plus updating the series for new financial instruments, such as new flows into bond and equity funds.

    The MFF index was a helpful gauge to predict the peaks and troughs of economic growth cycles and pinpoint excess liquidity situations. The MFF index signaled excessive liquidity growth (i.e., well above GDP) before the dot.com and housing bubbles. The primary source was explosive private sector credit growth and robust gains in liquid assets.

    Over the past year, growth in the MMF index has been more than twice that of dot.com and housing bubbles, owing to record growth in broad money and bank credit. Too much liquidity is the fuel for inflation.

    The Fed started this inflation fire by creating too much money. Now, it has to produce less. In January 2022, broad money is up roughly 14% in the past year, down from 25% a year earlier, but still far too fast to kill the inflation dragon. Policymakers have to curtail money growth to a rate well below nominal GDP. That will require a substantial increase in official rates and a sizeable shrinkage in the balance sheet.

    Removal of liquidity will appear in asset prices, financial ones before tangible, long before it shows up in conventional measures of inflation. Mr. Market, the biggest beneficiary of Powell and company liquidity bonanza, will soon cry about too little liquidity. Investors forewarned.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 19:00

  • New Amtrak Tunnel Between NJ And NYC Gets The Federal Funding "Go Ahead"
    New Amtrak Tunnel Between NJ And NYC Gets The Federal Funding “Go Ahead”

    It looks like Amtrak is at the front of the line at the trough of President Biden’s new infrastructure spending.

    The rail giant is expecting $22 billion in government funding, with additional government funding going to complete the proposed Gateway rail tunnel between New York and New Jersey, according to a new report from Bloomberg. 

    Amtrak Chief Executive Officer Stephen Gardner said this week about the tunnel: “Importantly, it’s going through all the environmental process and it’s now cued up for funding. We’re going through the process to get that remaining money necessary from the federal government so that we can start that program.”

    The tunnel is slated to cost $12.3 billion and was approved by the administration of President Joe Biden this year. It was previously held up by the Trump administration, Bloomberg reported. It’ll allow for “twice as many trains to run under the river, including those that are part of its Northeast Corridor service that connects Boston, New York and Washington,” the report says.

    Gardner says he expects an additional $22 billion in government funding by this summer. 

    “The first year of that money will coming to the company hopefully by this summer, early fall. And we’ll be putting it to work,” he concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 18:40

  • Saudis Warn Of Oil Shortage Shock, Blame "Net Zero" For Underinvestment
    Saudis Warn Of Oil Shortage Shock, Blame “Net Zero” For Underinvestment

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

    The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, has repeatedly said it wants to be the producer that will pump the very last barrel of oil. Until that time comes, the world and its growing economy will still need oil and gas, even as renewable energy capacity soars globally. The rebound of economies after the 2020 COVID slump has shown that global oil demand is not only not declining, but it is just months away from reaching pre-pandemic levels and exceeding them. This weekend, Saudi Arabia once again deplored the underinvestment in oil and gas and said that focusing only on renewables while campaigning against oil and gas was a mistake.    

    “Net Zero Does Not Mean Zero Oil”

    The insufficient investment in the oil and gas industry harms consumers, raises concerns about short-term supply shortages, and creates challenges for policymakers, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the 2022 International Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC) in Riyadh this weekend. The campaign against oil and gas investments is shortsighted, the minister said, as carried by Arab News.

    The sole focus on renewables is a mistake, said the most influential oilman of the OPEC+ coalition.

    “The net-zero does not mean cherrypicking, net-zero does not mean zero oil,” he added.

    The sharp decline in oil and gas investments has created a danger “that the world will not be able to produce all the energy it needs to promote recovery,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the conference, per the Saudi Press Agency. The Saudi minister also criticized the International Energy Agency (IEA) for its contradictory messages, from “no new investment ever again” last year to calls last week for more investment in oil and gas amid the current energy crisis and soaring oil prices.  

    Saudi Arabia Boosts Oil Production Capacity

    While the supermajors and U.S. shale are not racing to invest in new supply, Saudi Arabia plans to raise its crude oil production capacity by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) within five years. Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco targets to increase its oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day by 2027 from 12 million bpd now.

    “We are targeting our production capacity to become 13.4, 13.5 million barrels a day by 2027,” Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman told TIME’s Vivienne Walt in an interview published earlier this month.

    “We believe oil consumption will continue to grow. The demand for oil will continue growing. At what level, I do not know, because the jury is out. Anyone who tells you that they have a good grasp of where and when and how much is certainly living in a fantasy land,” he said.

    So, Saudi Arabia and its state oil giant Aramco are doubling down on oil, expecting robust global demand. The world’s top oil exporter is doing its part in ensuring oil production capacity for later this decade when chronic underinvestment in oil will have impacted supply already.

    “We intend to remain the world’s top producer,” Yasir Othman Al-Rumayyan, Chairman of Saudi Aramco’s Board of Directors and the Governor of the Public Investment Fund, said at the same conference in Riyadh this weekend.

    Renewable energy sources depend on materials that can only be produced with hydrocarbons, Al-Rumayyan said, noting the steel, diesel trucks, and resin-coated blades inputs in building, transporting, and erecting a wind turbine, for example. 

    “So make no mistake, oil and gas are part of this transition. We have a vital role to play. And we intend to be in business for a very long time,” Aramco’s chairman said. “It’s often assumed that the only thing holding back a net-zero future is a lack of ambition. That’s wrong. Our industry has ambition in abundance. The truth is that there are still some very complex technology challenges that we haven’t yet solved,” Al-Rumayyan added.

     Underinvestment Could Create Next Supply Shortage Shock

    Throughout the net-zero commitments and “keep it in the ground” calls of the past few years, Saudi Arabia hasn’t changed its message to the energy industry—renewables are not enough, underinvestment in oil and gas threatens to create supply shortages, and a rushed transition will lead to increased volatility and higher energy prices.

    Over the past few months, the world saw first-hand what fossil fuel shortages could be like. Government priorities turned from actions to reduce emissions in the long term to addressing the immediate energy crunch, soaring energy bills, and catering for the near-term energy security.

    Global annual upstream spending needs to increase by as much as 54 percent to $542 billion if the oil market is to avert the next supply shortage shock, Moody’s said last year. The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said that the World Petroleum Congress in Texas in December:

    “Right now, the world is facing an ever more chaotic energy transition. Several highly unrealistic scenarios and assumptions about the future of energy are clouding the picture.” 

    “Energy security, economic development, and affordability imperatives are clearly not receiving enough attention. Until they are, and unless the glaring gaps in the transition strategy are fixed, the chaos will only intensify,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO noted.

    Commenting on the current commodity markets, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said earlier this month that “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 18:20

  • 122 Countries On Track To Miss COVID-19 Vaccine Goal
    122 Countries On Track To Miss COVID-19 Vaccine Goal

    In October 2021, the WHO’s Independent Allocation of Vaccines Group (IAVG) outlined its Strategy to Achieve Global COVID-19 Vaccination by Mid-2022. In it, the group called for an internationally coordinated vaccine rollout to reach the following objectives: achieve 10 percent vaccine coverage in all countries by the end of September 2021, 40 percent coverage in all countries by the end of December and, ultimately, 70 percent vaccine coverage in all countries halfway through 2022.

    By the time the strategy was made public, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that the 10 percent goal had been missed by 56 countries, while 70 countries had already surpassed the 40 percent target by the end of September.

    In late December, the IAVG rang the alarm bells once again, saying that 98 countries were about to miss the 40 percent target, citing “the severe vaccine supply constraints to COVAX, which persisted until the last quarter of 2021” as the main reason for the shortfall.

    Aside from supply constraints, which are expected to gradually ease in 2022, the IAVG identified further challenges in achieving the 70 percent coverage goal by mid-2022.

    “The increase in volumes will create challenges in absorption capacity in resource-poor settings. This includes the capacity to receive, store, distribute, administer, and to record vaccine use, including wastage,” the group warned, before adding that widespread misinformation fueling vaccine hesitancy will be another hurdle in achieving its immunization goal.

    According to latest estimates by Our World in Data, large parts of the world are likely to fall short of the WHO’s vaccination target.

    Infographic: 122 Countries on Track to Miss Covid-19 Vaccine Goal | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Looking at current coverage and the rate of new vaccinations over the past 14 days, the researchers find that 122 countries are currently on a trajectory to miss the 70 percent vaccination goal by the end of June 2022, while 34 countries are on track to meet the target.

    Meanwhile most high-income countries have already surpassed the 70 percent milestone, further illustrating the wide gulf in global vaccine distribution.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/23/2022 – 18:00

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