Jan 24

Today’s News 24th January 2023

  • They Won't Leave Us Alone: The Invasion Of Politics
    They Won’t Leave Us Alone: The Invasion Of Politics

    Authored by Joakim Book via The Mises Institute,

    The temptation and crucial flaw of a totalitarian mind are that everyone must play a part in a superstructural battle between good and evil. Standing on the sidelines or taking a neutral position on present topics is not allowed; one may not merely observe or ignore the madness played out among the power hungry.

    As a not-so-proud carrier of a Swedish passport, I last year lost track of how many times I was asked about Sweden’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the overreaching military alliance among Western nations. Apparently, there was a war going on somewhere. NATO countries were scrambling, and Finland and Sweden (thoroughly Western social democratic countries) were decades-old NATO holdouts. I did not know; I took pride in not knowing.

    The chattering classes and the corporate press were full-on politicking. An insider-diplomacy battle raged between Stockholm, Helsinki, and Washington, DC. At some point even, Ankara, Turkey, was involved. I did not know; I had no opinion. My friends, my colleagues, my neighbor, my barber, my friends’ friends, and various other acquaintances all wanted in on the sordid business of political commentating.

    I did not know. That was exactly it. I had no position to offer, which I quickly realized was a social mistake in this brave new world of symbolic wars for all that is “good.” I did not know anything about military matters, defense capabilities, international relations, or threat assessments regarding the various countries involved. I did not live in any of the places previously mentioned. I had no interest in their nation-state status. I did not know what the implications of NATO membership were or why it concerned me. Politicians politick with or without my input.

    Everyone needs a take; everyone needs to “be informed” on the grand, irrelevant events of our broken times. Everyone needs a flag in their profile picture—a not-so-grand gesture indicating that they support the “latest thing.”

    Paraphrasing Murray Rothbard’s quote on economic ignorance, why should I politick “a loud and vociferous position” on the diplomatic/military questions that so many of my fellow humans keep asking me for?

    On most current affairs, I imagine I am a little bit like most people; we have our own lives and our own interests to pay attention to. Everything else takes a backseat. Rather than play the hot-take-on-everything game, I just want to be a good libertarian and be left alone. Unfortunately, that does not fly in a politicized society flirting with totalitarianism. Society has lost its shared values and its unifying religious frameworks and instead elevated politics (as Friedrich Nietzsche’s old quote goes, “God is dead. . . . And we have killed him”).

    F.A. Hayek taught us in his famous 1945 “The Use of Knowledge in Society” that market prices carry information. I do not need to know anything about faraway affairs. I am perfectly capable of reading gasoline prices, suffering electricity price shocks, or paying elevated prices at the grocery store. That is the beauty of a capitalist division of labor and a market system. We do not need top-down control. We do not need the chattering classes opining about what one owes, deserves, or ought to know. All we need is the reality of what we experience as market actors.

    Like a good libertarian, I instead try to purge politics from my life; no watching the news. I only read slow news in quality magazines by authors I trust, and I routinely skip every topic that does not belong to my core interests. Life is too short. And as I have said in the past, the sum of “humanity’s current (and future) literary, statistic and economic treasure” is more valuable than the unexciting, outdated information that is tumbled, diluted, and filled with omissions, via my propaganda machine (sorry, TV news).

    In what political scientists would consider apex “political ignorance,” I take pride in not being able to name the prime minister of my native Sweden or the rulers of the other lands in which I reside. I do not know, care, or want to elevate their theater into my cognitive space.

    At a recent party, my team lost a trivia competition, partly because we could not name the United Kingdom’s last three prime ministers (They change so often that it is not worth learning their names.). When my father called on an eventful Sunday last fall, and in passing, mentioned that he had met an acquaintance at the voting booths, I learned for the first time that it was Election Day. Epic!

    Twenty-five years ago, James Dale Davidson and William Rees wrote about the public’s relationship to politics and corrupt institutions in their long-lived treatise The Sovereign Individual:

    Moral outrage against corrupt leaders is not an isolated historical phenomenon but a common precursor of change. It happens again and again whenever one era gives way to another. . . . This widespread revulsion comes into evidence well before people develop a new coherent ideology of change. As we write, there is as yet little evidence of an articulate rejection of politics. That will come later. It has not yet occurred to most of your contemporaries that a life without politics is possible. (emphasis added)

    Foreshadowing the rise of internet dominance, remote work, financial revolutions, and Bitcoin, the authors precociously reasoned about big-picture societal shifts of power. When technology allows, new societal constellations become available. Whether or not we grab onto them is up to us.

    And all meaningful changes begin at home: fix that which you can fix, clean your room, etc. A flourishing future without politics requires us to purge from our lives the corrupting features of politics, which only enrage us and separate us from our fellow humans.

    Politics is cancer, and the best you can do is to exit from it in every way you can.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/24/2023 – 00:00

  • China's Northernmost City Sees Lowest Temperatures Ever Recorded
    China’s Northernmost City Sees Lowest Temperatures Ever Recorded

    China’s “North Pole” recorded its lowest temperature since records began.

    The Chinese city of Mohe dropped to minus 53 degrees Celsius Sunday, according to China Daily, citing data from the country’s local weather bureau.

    The frigid temperatures broke a previous record of minus 52.3 degrees Celsius. Temperatures have been below minus 50 degrees Celsius for three consequence days. 

    “As a new round of extreme cold hit Heilongjiang, a number of areas in the Greater Khingan Range have recorded their coldest ever temperatures,” China Daily said. 

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    Earlier this month, we pointed out a cold air mass swirling in the Arctic was shattering records. The rural northern Siberian town of Zhilinda recorded temperatures of minus 62.1 degrees Celsius. 

    Arcfield Weather’s Paul Dorian explained recently that winter isn’t over and called for a significant change in North American weather. 

    On Monday, the weather blog Severe Weather Europe outlined:

    The Polar Vortex is starting to weaken as a strong Stratospheric Warming event is about to unfold. As the forecast indicates, the Polar Vortex will be heavily deformed but will not fully collapse. These important events can have a significant impact on the rest of winter in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

    Some meteorologists continue to tweet long-term weather models that suggest a polar vortex could result in colder weather for the US and Europe at the end of the month or early February. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 23:40

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Mexico Is Not Really An American Friend
    Victor Davis Hanson: Mexico Is Not Really An American Friend

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson, op-ed via Townhall.com,

    Left-wing Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador recently praised a visiting President Joe Biden:

    “Just imagine: There are 40 million Mexicans in the United States – 40 million who were born here in Mexico, (or) who are the children of people who were born in Mexico!”

    Why wouldn’t Obrador be delighted? Since Biden took office in January 2021, America has allowed some 5-6 million illegal entries across its southern border.

    Obrador further congratulated the malleable Biden whom he sees as a kindred but complacent left-wing spirit:

    “You are the first president of the United States in a very long time that has not built even one meter of wall.”

    Translated that means Mexico is delighted the United States now cares little about the security of its border, the disappearance of which is wonderful news for Mexico.

    Note that Mexico itself facilitates illegal transits across its southern border – as long as such Central American and other global migrants keep heading northward into the United States.

    But when or if they pause, try to stay in Mexico, commit crimes, or expect Mexican social services, then almost immediately Mexico City sends thousands of troops to close its border with Guatemala, deports the illegal crossers, and revives talk of building a border wall of its own.

    Biden has demolished America’s southern border. His illegal nullification of U.S. immigration law is music to Obrador’s ears.

    But it is a nightmare to Americans who poll overwhelming disapproval of the subversion of their border security. They are exhausted by the influx of death-dealing drugs. And they are furious over the hundreds of billions of dollars diverted from their strapped social services to attend to the needs of foreign nationals who have broken their laws.

    Even overwhelmed blue sanctuary cities that once boasted of nullifying federal immigration law are now beginning to object to Biden’s complicity in Mexico’s manipulation of the border.

    Obrador is delighted that Biden is the first White House occupant who in matters of the shared southern border grants all of Mexico’s wishes, but almost none of his citizens.

    That reality raises the question that if Mexico were a declared enemy of the United States, how would it behave any differently than it is now?

    Take drugs, for example. American overdoses due to fentanyl and other opioids are nearing 100,000 deaths per year.

    Almost all such lethal opiates are manufactured in factories operated by drug cartels in Mexico that enjoy de facto immunity from prosecution. The Mexican opioid industry was designed solely for lucrative export to the United States – with zero concern over the death and destruction its products cause here.

    Well aside from human trafficking and smuggling, cartel drugs indirectly earn the Mexican economy somewhere between $35-45 billion each year.

    A hostile China profits by selling Mexicans the raw product. Beijing gains satisfaction that at the present death rate, more Americans will perish this decade alone from imported Mexican drugs than all the combat deaths in all the wars since America’s founding.

    In that sense, Mexico is doing more damage to America than all our prior enemies combined.

    Obrador is equally callous in bragging that he exports his own poor. Left unsaid is that a naturally rich Mexico either will not, or cannot, adequately employ, feed, shelter, and protect its impoverished citizens.

    So instead, it cynically sees its people as a lucrative export commodity while holding U.S. laws in veritable contempt.

    Currently, Mexican nationals are sending nearly $60 billion a year in remittances from the United States to Mexico to aid friends and families who do not find enough succor from their government in Mexico City. Untaxed remittances far and away constitute the largest source of Mexico’s foreign exchange income.

    Much of that gifting is made possible by generous American state and federal subsidies to illegal aliens. Frequent subsidized housing, healthcare, legal assistance, education, and food in the United States are often used to free up cash for illegals, who then send it to Mexico.

    Mexico sees this export of its people as a win-win-win-win proposition.

    Illegal immigration to America exempts Mexico from covering the social welfare costs of its poorest.

    In safety-valve fashion, it exports the volatility of social inequality rather than spending large sums to address it.

    Mexico sees its huge and growing expatriate community as a valuable lobbying lever inside America, given the longer Mexican nationals are absent from Mexico, the more they romanticize the country they fled.

    Finally, Mexico is a left-wing nation. The more it sends its poor to the United States, the more it feels Democratic politicians who grant concessions to Mexico will gain valuable new political constituents – ensuring still further concessions.

    One sure sign of historic national decline is the collective inability of a government and its people to defend their borders and national sovereignty.

    Mexico would happily agree.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 23:20

  • China Says Over 80% Of Population Infected With COVID, No Risk Of Virus Rebound
    China Says Over 80% Of Population Infected With COVID, No Risk Of Virus Rebound

    Remember when rational voices asked why, instead of locking down its economy every time there was even a small breakout of the Wu-flu, China (or the US for that matter) didn’t simply do the right thing and allow covid to sweep through the land, creating a buffer of natural immunity and burn out on its own? Well, after bizarrely resisting the inevitable (one day we hope to have an answer why Xi Jinping pushed so hard for the now defunct Covid-zero policy) for so long, that’s precisely what China has now down and on Saturday, a prominent government scientist said that the possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have now been infected, reaching the herd immunity threshold.

    While the mass movement of people during the ongoing Lunar New Year holiday period may spread the pandemic, boosting infections in some areas, a second COVID wave is unlikely in the near term, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on the Weibo social media platform, according to Reuters.

    Hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling across the country for holiday reunions that had been suspended under recently eased COVID curbs, raising fears of fresh outbreaks in rural areas less equipped to manage large outbreaks.

    To ease widespread if groundless fears which had been mercilessly stoked by Beijing for the past three years, a National Health Commission official also addressed the nation on Thursday saying that China has passed the peak of COVID patients in fever clinics, emergency rooms and with critical conditions.

    According to “government data”, which in China means propaganda, nearly 60,000 people with COVID had died in hospital as of Jan. 12, roughly a month after China abruptly dismantled its zero-COVID policy. But some experts said that figure probably vastly undercounts the full impact, as it excludes those who die at home, and because many doctors have said they are discouraged from citing COVID as a cause of death.

    While over a billion Chinese having survived covid is good news, it’s terrible news for those pharma companies that held the world hostage for the past three years: after all, just how will Pfizer and Moderna be able to afford more yachts if they can’t sell their constantly changing, taxpayer-funded mRNA cocktail to the world’s (now 2nd) largest population. As for the world’s most populous country, India, it knew what was up more than a year ago when in Sept 2021 its government said it would not buy any shots from Pfizer and Moderna, thus depriving its population of countless complications from myocarditis and pericarditis.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 23:00

  • Australians Were Once Prosecuted For Claiming Face Masks Worked Against Viruses
    Australians Were Once Prosecuted For Claiming Face Masks Worked Against Viruses

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Australians who tried to sell surgical face masks on the back of claims they worked against viruses were once threatened with prosecution and massive fines by the government.

    Yes, really.

    An article titled ‘Farce mask: it’s safe for only 20 minutes’ published by the Sydney Morning Herald in 2003 explained how, “Retailers who cash in on community fears about SARS by exaggerating the health benefits of surgical masks could face fines of up to $110,000.”

    The article quotes a public health experts who said that face masks are largely useless at stopping the spread of viruses and could even worsen the situation.

    “Those masks are only effective so long as they are dry,” said Professor Yvonne Cossart of the Department of Infectious Diseases at the University of Sydney.

    “As soon as they become saturated with the moisture in your breath they stop doing their job and pass on the droplets.”

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    Professor Cossart said that the masks would need to be changed every 15-20 minutes to be in any way effective.

    Her sentiments were echoed by John Bell from the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, who said that masks only offered “marginal benefit” and were largely psychological in their level of protection.

    The story is noteworthy because during the COVID pandemic, the Australian government imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the world and used face mask mandates as a brutal tool of population control.

    As we previously highlighted, authorities in Melbourne used high-tech surveillance drones to catch people outside not wearing masks.

    At the height of the hysteria, there were numerous instances of police in Australia physically attacking people for not adhering to mask wearing rules, including one incident when a woman was placed in a chokehold by a male police officer.

    Another video showed an elderly woman being arrested for not wearing a mask while sitting on a park bench.

    Yet another clip showed police pepper spraying pre-teen children for not wearing face masks.

    Another clip showed an elderly man suffering a suspected heart attack after he was arrested by police for not wearing a mask outside while exercising.

    During the early months of the COVID pandemic, health authorities advised against wearing masks, only to subsequently do a 180 once face coverings became a convenient psychological tool of population control.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 22:40

  • Nikileaks Spooks Markets That Chinese Reopening May Be Inflationary, But Wall Street Disagrees
    Nikileaks Spooks Markets That Chinese Reopening May Be Inflationary, But Wall Street Disagrees

    Monday’s furious rally, which among other things was facilitated by the Sunday report from WSJ Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos that a 25bps Feb 1 rate hike by the Fed is a done deal, hit an airpocket just after 2pm when in the latest tweet from Timiraos – whose every utterance now moves markets, especially during the Fed blackout period – and in which the WSJ reporter noted that “Just when signs point to easing inflation worldwide, China’s economic reopening after years of strict pandemic controls is raising questions about whether it could spur costs higher again.”

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    Needless to say, China’s economic reopening is a very sensitive issue: on one hand, there are those who argue easier access to reopened Chinese markets will mean smoother supply chains and cheaper goods (and transit) contributing to the current disinflation; on the other hand, should China’s reopening turn out to be “hot” and should Beijing end up exporting too much inflation (as it has in the past), it could reverse any “pause” or “pivot” plans the Fed has, and instead force it to double down on tightening later in 2023.

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    While we will have much more to say on this topic in the coming days, the initial consensus on Wall Street is that a Chinese reopening will not, in fact, be inflationary. Take last week’s Cross-Asset Dispatches note from Morgan Stanley, in which strategist Andrew Sheets explains why expectations that China’s reopening will be inflationary will disappoint. We excerpt from his note below:

    We don’t think that China’s reopening will be inflationary

    Wage growth is one risk to the Morgan Stanley ‘inflation falls’ thesis. Another is China’s reopening from Covid-zero, which has been increasingly aggressive. Our forecasts imply that this reopening will be successful, with our economists optimistic on China growth, and our strategists optimistic on China equities and FX.

    But if the world’s second-largest economy successfully reopens from Covid, won’t that drive more inflationary pressure in 2023?

    Not necessarily. Our economists see a few considerations:

    • Private consumption sees the largest rebound: Private consumption in China saw the largest drop-off as a result of Covid-zero, and has the most to gain from this ending, especially with high private savings. This demand competes less at the international level than more commodity-heavy public investment.
    • Within this, services rebound most: Our China economists see services consumption rising by 8.5%Y in 2023 versus -1.5%Y in 2022. Demand for goods also increases, but the swing is milder (+7.7%Y in 2023 versus +2.4%Y in 2022). At the risk of simplifying, more people going back to the movies isn’t very inflationary; the theatres have capacity, and this consumption doesn’t compete with demand elsewhere.
    • Supply improves: Reopening should ultimately help to ease pressure on supply chains and improve labour supply in China.

    There will be some inflationary impacts. For example, we think that China’s reopening will boost oil demand, but even here the impact is back-loaded (see The Oil Manual: Heavy Now, Higher Later, January 11, 2023).  Indeed, our economists think that the broader theme across Asia is disinflation. For more, see 2023 Asia Economics Outlook: The Year of Disinflation, November 13, 2022.

    Economists at TS Lombard reached a similar conclusion last week, writing that they expect a “limited demand pull” from China’s reopening and “even oil prices are unlikely to receive the major demand boost that many expect” to wit:

    The composition of growth will determine global demand and inflation spillovers. For the first time, a cyclical recovery in China will be led by household consumption, mainly services. There is clearly a great deal of pent-up demand and savings (about 4% of GDP) following three years of intermittent mobility restrictions. And although we are concerned about the degree of property-related scarring to household (as well as local government and bank) balance sheets, at least in 2023 there is likely to be strong catch-up demand from a very low base. For instance, trips over the first three days of the Spring Festival travel season are up 30% yoy but still only 70% of the 2019 level. Similarly, catering spending last year was just 90% of the 2019 level and tourism spending only 50%. Catch-up growth should be fairly mechanical and lead to increased job hiring (pre-Covid, 25% of all jobs in China were in catering, retail, accommodation and tourism), higher wages and more confidence. Structural problems have not disappeared – far from it – but they will not derail growth in 2023

    Globally mild inflation and limited demand pull. A recovery led by household spending on services will support fuel and catering-related commodities, but global spillovers should not be overestimated. Furthermore, demand for industrial metals is likely to come in weaker than current bullish expectations. Chinese imports are driven by investment and industrial demand. The workshop of the world does not need to buy consumer goods overseas; moreover, increases in demand for intermediate goods to meet rising domestic goods consumption are likely to be offset by falling exports and high inventories. Tourism will certainly benefit – Thailand and other regional peers are well placed. However, time will be needed for flight volumes, ticket prices and international Covid restrictions to normalize to near pre-pandemic levels. Official estimates put outbound travel at 70% of pre-Covid levels this year.

    Even oil prices are unlikely to receive the major demand boost that many expect. Transportation accounts for just 54% of China’s oil consumption vs 72% in the US and 68% in the EU. Petrochemicals constitute a much larger share, at 42%, with related China imports generally led by construction and export-oriented manufacturing (lots of plastic). Last year, net oil and refined petroleum imports were 8% lower by volume than the pre-pandemic peak – infrastructure and export-oriented manufacturing partly offset lower mobility and less property construction. Demand drivers should switch this year, with travel rising and property less negative, while infrastructure and manufacturing slow. The certain outcome is an increase in oil demand: we estimate a 5-8% increase in net import volumes, which, however, is unlikely to cause oil prices to surge, especially as China is buying at a discount from Russia. An inflationary impulse is coming from the PRC but will be domestically focused and unlikely to trouble the PBoC, let alone the Fed.

    Ironically, one of the reasons why a major monetary stimulus in China will not lead to surge in inflation abroad is that since 2015, it has become much harder and more expensive to move money offshore.

    The impetus to move funds is now arguably greater than it was in the aftermath of the surprise FX devaluation. The currency move was a one-off shock, “Common Prosperity” is here to stay. Outbound tourism offers one avenue to mask capital flight. Data on capital outflows are sparse. We can observe surface-level changes – for example, increased “golden visa” issuance to Chinese nationals – but the scale is hard to gauge. Balance of payments data are a metric of potential outflows. We think tourism spending alone is likely to reach US$40bn in quarterly outflows by the end of H1/23 based on pre-Covid trends. Net errors and omissions, another proxy for capital flight, could rise to US$50bn if there is a return to the 2017-2019 quarterly average. Given a goods surplus of US$200bn in Q3/22, this will not send the Chinese current account into deficit; but, combined with a narrower trade surplus (domestic imports rising modestly, global demand slumping), it will bring downward pressure to bear on RMB from late Q2/23 onwards.

    Translation: after China plugged the Great Firewall in 2015/2016 and made it next to impossible to use bitcoin to shuffle cash offshore, inflation has been far more localized. Of course, the counterargument also stands: if China loses control of domestic inflation and hopes to export higher prices offshore, it will then quietly open all those locks it implemented in recent years to make money laundering abroad using crypto impossible.

    More in the full reports available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 22:05

  • Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China's Storm?
    Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China’s Storm?

    By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets Substack,

    As I and many of my subscribers have noticed, many of the key commodity drivers of inflation have seeming rolled over.

    European gas prices, Chinese pork prices, oil prices, US corn prices among others have weakened to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strangely, weak commodity prices should be disastrous for my key trade, long GLD short TLT, and yet strangely it has breached new cycle highs. Why is this?

    The first thing that should be said is that commodity investing is hard. Surprises in short term demand and supply can drive huge moves in spot markets. A good example is pork prices. Pork is particularly big driver of Chinese inflation. Chinese and US pork prices have recently fallen significantly.

    I have no idea why pork prices have fallen. The reopening of China would have made me think short term demand for pork would be higher, and hence prices would be rising. That they are falling, suggests maybe supply is robust. Confusing the picture is that Chinese corn price have not weakened, meaning that profitability for pig farmers has collapsed. All a bit confusing to be honest.

    However, my core argument is that China has turned into a net food importer, and this should be putting upward pressure on food prices, as long as China does not devalue. The data on China being a net food importer remains compelling. European exports of meat to China remain strong.

    Chinese pork prices can be greatly effected by swings in supply. However during the African Swine Flu crisis, beef consumption in China grew significantly.

    China grows very little beef (very little pasture land).

    Robust pricing for beef would point to food inflation in China still having an upward bias in my mind.

    The key argument of China becoming a food importer seems intact.

    The other end of inflation argument you could make is that energy price inflation is done. European gas prices have collapsed in recent months. In part driven by a very warm winter.

    Even more so than Chinese pork prices, natural gas prices are very susceptible to short term fluctuations in demand and supply. To get around this I look at 5 year forward futures on US natural gas. The long dated futures have yet to show an inflection in pricing to indicate we are going back to a sustained bear market.

    What I think is happening is that in early 2022, the US seemed very determined to counter inflation through what ever measure were necessary. We saw the sharpest increase in short term rates in a generation. And we also saw the biggest sell down of the strategic petroleum reserve. This sell down added about 600k barrels a day of supply to oil markets.

    As argued previously, food inflation forces wage inflation. And China becoming a food importer is creating food inflation globally.

    This means that central banks have to run aggressive interest rate policy, or inflation will return.

    GLD/TLT reflects that. When TLT is weak, which happens when the market pricing in aggressive interest rate policy, GLD is also weak. But as soon as TLT reflects a slackening of central bank resolve, GLD shoots higher. My best guess we are a short term lull in inflation, making short TLT and other bond trades look attractive here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 22:00

  • M&M's Ends Woke "Spokescandies" After Pushback, Replacing Them With Actress Maya Rudolph
    M&M’s Ends Woke “Spokescandies” After Pushback, Replacing Them With Actress Maya Rudolph

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    M&M’s says it’s pulling its increasingly woke “spokescandies” mascots after a massive pushback over the politicization of the beloved candy brand.

    Mars, the candy maker which produces M&M’s, announced on Jan. 23 that it would replace its decades-old team of M&M’s “spokescandies” mascots with the actress Maya Rudolph, after backlash by longtime fans over its failed makeover to make the brand more inclusive.

    Rudolph said she will take the place of the iconic mascots before the company’s awaited Super Bowl ad that will be aired during the game on Feb. 12.

    “I am a lifelong lover of the candy, and I feel like it’s such an honor to be asked to be part of such a legendary brand’s campaign,” she told NBC’s TODAY.

    The “spokescandies” were a team of little cartoon M&M’s mascots, which have appeared in every commercial and other marketing materials representing the candy covered chocolates since 1960.

    Even Candy Favorites Are Unable to Escape Wokeism

    In January 2022, Mars updated the cartoon mascots and M&M’s marketing with a plan to rebrand each mascot with a new backstory, clothing, and personality to be more inclusive under the slogan: “M&M’S® Creating a World Where Everyone Feels They Belong.”

    M&M’s said that its branding would “reflect an updated tone of voice that is more inclusive, welcoming, and unifying, while remaining rooted in our signature jester wit and humor.”

    The “feminine” green” M&M, for example, was criticized by the left for being marketed as “too sexy,” so was transformed into a feminist character, with the company switching out her knee-high heeled boots for sneakers.

    “Being a hypewoman for my friends, I think we all win when we see more women in leading roles, so I’m happy to take on the part of supportive friend when they succeed,” the Mars advertising has the green M&M saying.

    The “male” orange mascot became a character ridden with anxiety, and the “female” brown mascot became a boss with an assured personality.

    “Male” red, who had been the bully in the past, became kind to his co-characters.

    Mars’s most controversial change was the new purple M&M, a “lesbian” mascot which was designed to represent inclusivity.

    The new purple candy mascot was created to “help more people feel they belong,” the brand announced in September, explaining that the “lesbian” mascot “celebrates all voices, encouraging people around the world to embrace their authentic selves.”

    The purple “lesbian” made her debut with a new song called, “I’m Just Gonna Be Me,” featuring an accompanying music video.

    Mars announced in December that it would make its return to the Super Bowl with a 30-second spot during, and that the commercial would include its seven revamped M&M’s characters.

    “The latest campaign extends our purposeful work over the last year, but is rooted in a new creative territory, and we can’t wait for our fans to see what’s about to unfold,” Gabrielle Wesley, chief marketing office for Mars, wrote in a press release.

    Mars Withdraws Woke M&Ms After Fan and Media Backlash

    The rebrand, however, brought ridicule from conservative commentators and many fans, such as Fox News host Tucker Carlson, with many claiming that the makeovers were another example of a left-wing woke agenda gone too far.

    M&M’s finally conceded to its critics, posting on Jan. 23, on Instagram: 

    “America, let’s talk. In the last year, we’ve made some changes to our beloved spokescandies. We weren’t sure if anyone would even notice. And we definitely didn’t think it would break the internet. But now we get it—even a candy’s shoes can be polarizing. Which was the last thing M&M’s wanted since we’re all about bringing people together.”

    “Therefore, we have decided to take an indefinite pause on the spokescandies,” the statement continued.

    We give the final word to Tucker Carlson who summed up the farce tonight perfectly…

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 21:21

  • Pentagon Planning GOP House Speaker McCarthy Visit To Taiwan This Spring
    Pentagon Planning GOP House Speaker McCarthy Visit To Taiwan This Spring

    New House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is planning his own Taiwan trip later this year, following former speaker Nancy Pelosi’s early August visit which had set off weeks of PLA military drills which encircled the self-ruled island, including repeat breaches of the Taiwan Strait median line. 

    Fox News reported that the Pentagon is aware and busy making preparations. “The US military is drafting plans to ensure  safety on a trip to Taiwan later this year,” Fox reported.

    Via Reuters

    Punchbowl News was the first to report the trip earlier in the day Monday, and said the US military is in the “early stages” of laying the logistical groundwork.

    “McCarthy expressed support for Pelosi’s trip at the time and said he’d also travel to Taiwan if elected speaker,” Punchbowl wrote. “And just recently, McCarthy touted the House’s vote to establish a select committee on China, which received significant Democratic support.”

    An official involved in the preparations indicated it’s expected to take place at some point in the spring. Pelosi’s visit had been teased for months as a possibility but was only made public when she was already en route and about to touch down in Taipei on August 2nd, accompanied by a delegation of five Democratic Party members. They flew out the next day after meeting with top officials including President Tsai Ing-wen.

    China is already signaling severe opposition to another such ultra-provocative visit by a sitting US house speaker, an office third in line from the presidency after the vice president.

    For example, state-run Global Times addressed earlier stirrings last week when rumors of McCarthy’s trip began to surface:

    “If McCarthy does visit Taiwan in 2023,” a GT article began, “China-U.S. relations will witness another shock comparable to or even worse than that in August 2022 when Pelosi visited Taiwan.”

    McCarthy, long an advocate of getting ‘tougher’ on China, hopes to lead the House-led GOP toward putting greater scrutiny on Beijing and making the US economic and military rival a top foreign policy priority.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 21:00

  • Supreme Court's Failure To Identify Dobbs Leaker Is "Chilling", Jonathan Turley Warns "Danger Will Only Grow"
    Supreme Court’s Failure To Identify Dobbs Leaker Is “Chilling”, Jonathan Turley Warns “Danger Will Only Grow”

    Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times,

    George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley criticized the Supreme Court on Jan. 19 over its failure to determine who leaked a draft of the court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion.

    After a months-long investigation sparked by the May leak, the court released its much-anticipated investigative report (pdf) on the matter Thursday, finding that it was “not possible” to identify the person responsible for the breach or how the document had ended up in the hands of Politico.

    “The Supreme Court’s report indicates that they cannot isolate the culprit among the over 80 possible suspects for the Dobbs leak,” Turley noted in a series of Jan. 19 tweets.

    “It is an admission that is almost as chilling as the leak itself.”

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    Turley also posited that, despite the security recommendations of the court’s marshal, the inconclusive investigation would likely only serve to embolden future leakers.

    “The nature of the Court’s work requires a free flow of drafts and memoranda,” he noted. “That is why we hope to achieve through deterrence what was not achieved through ethics.

    “In this age of rage, this danger will only grow,” he added.

    “Someone felt that they had license to leak. Some others may now feel that they have the impunity to do so.”

    The Leak

    While, in general, Supreme Court leaks are rare, the Dobbs leak was made all the more significant by the implications of the ruling on nearly a half-century of abortion law in the United States.

    Politico, having exclusively obtained an early draft of the opinion, published it May 2 as part of a report titled, “Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows.”

    Although the draft differed slightly from the final opinion the court would issue on June 24, the decision was the same: The court ruled 5–4 that there is no constitutional right to abortion, striking down the precedents set by the 1973 landmark abortion case of Roe v. Wade and the subsequent 1992 ruling in Planned Parenthood v. Casey.

    The leaked draft sparked national protests, including outside the homes of conservative justices, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh becoming the target of an assassination attempt.

    Calling the leak an “egregious breach” of the court’s trust, Chief Justice John Roberts ordered an investigation into its source.

    “To the extent this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed,” Roberts assured in a May 3 statement.

    “The work of the Court will not be affected in any way.”

    The Investigation

    Prior to Thursday’s report, the court had been tight-lipped on the progress of its investigation, with the only updates coming from anonymous sources.

    Led by Supreme Court Marshal Gail Curley, the court’s investigative team comprised “seasoned attorneys and trained federal investigators with substantial experience conducting criminal, administrative and cyber investigations,” per Curley’s report.

    But after conducting 126 formal interviews of 97 employees, the team was unable to identify the individual responsible for the leak.

    “No one confessed to publicly disclosing the document and none of the available forensic and other evidence provided a basis for identifying any individual as the source of the document,” Curley noted.

    While the possibility of a hack could not be entirely ruled out, the team found that the evidence did not suggest improper outside access.

    Investigators were likewise unable to rule out inadvertent or negligent disclosure, “for example, by being left in a public space either inside or outside the building.”

    Additionally, despite reports that the justices were not interviewed as part of the investigation, Curley clarified in a statement Friday that she did speak with them in addition to their staff.

    “During the course of the investigation, I spoke with each of the Justices, several on multiple occasions,” she said. “The Justices actively cooperated in this iterative process, asking questions and answering mine. I followed up on all credible leads, none of which implicated the Justices or their spouses. On this basis, I did not believe that it was necessary to ask the Justices to sign sworn affidavits.”

    While also noting in her report that investigators were still reviewing and processing some electronic data and that a few inquiries were pending, Curley proposed several security improvements to prevent future breaches, including enhanced training, tracking mechanisms to monitor the printing and copying of documents, and policy updates on the handling of draft opinions and who can access sensitive information.

    In a statement attached to the report, the court offered Curley their “full support” as she and her team continue their investigation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 20:40

  • Blank Check? Democrats Want To Totally Eliminate Debt Ceiling With New Bill
    Blank Check? Democrats Want To Totally Eliminate Debt Ceiling With New Bill

    A group of 43 Democrats want to completely eliminate the debt ceiling, which they say Republicans have ‘weaponized’ – which would give the government a blank check to borrow without any limit from Congress.

    The End the Threat of Default Act, introduced by Rep Bill Foster (D-IL) and co-sponsored by 42 House Democrats, comes after the federal government hit the $31,381 trillion debt ceiling last week. According to Democrats, instead of attempting to responsibly spend taxpayer dollars through negotiation, it’s time to just eliminate all limits on federal borrowing.

    “Weaponizing the debt ceiling and using it as a pawn in partisan budget negotiations is dangerous and repeatedly brings our nation to the brink of default, which would be disastrous to the U.S. economy – something we’ve witnessed as recently as 2011 when Republicans created a debt ceiling crisis that resulted in the first ever downgrade to the U.S. credit rating,” said Foster.

    “The government has an obligation to pay its bills,” he added. “Threatening to default on our debt is the same as ordering an expensive meal at a restaurant, eating it, and skipping out without paying. We can and should have a real conversation about overall spending, but the full faith and credit of the United States must never be compromised.”

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    Co-sponsors of the bill include Reps. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas, Gerry Connolly of Virginia, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Barbara Lee of California, Fox News reports.

    The Biden administration and its Democrat allies in Congress have argued that raising the debt ceiling does not allow “new” spending, and only allows the government to meet its current obligations. But Republicans say congressional approval of new spending programs is what has repeatedly forced the government to keep hitting its borrowing limit, which has then forced Congress to keep raising the debt ceiling.

    Before the housing crisis in 2008, the total national debt was $9 trillion, an amount that more than tripled to more than $31 trillion in less than 15 years thanks to programs related to the housing bailout, 20 years of military presence in Afghanistan, COVID emergency response measures, and routine funding increases for defense and social programs. -Fox News

    Just before the pandemic, the federal government spent $4.4 trillion in fiscal year 2019. In 2020, that ballooned to $6.8 trillion, and then $6.3 trillion in FY2022.

    Of course, Foster did not introduce the bill when Democrats had the majority in both chambers of Congress (and would have been shot down by their own Joe Manchin) – so let’s agree this yet another transparent attempt to signal virtue.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 20:20

  • Ron Paul Hammers Debt-Ceiling Hysteria & Hypocrisy
    Ron Paul Hammers Debt-Ceiling Hysteria & Hypocrisy

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    This week the US government reached its 31.4 trillion dollars borrowing limit, better known as the “debt ceiling.” This led to a showdown among House Republicans, President Biden, and congressional Democrats.

    Infographic: U.S. National Debt Surpasses $31 Trillion | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    House Republicans are demanding that President Biden and Senate Democrats agree to include spending cuts with the debt ceiling increase. However, President Biden and the congressional Democrats are refusing to negotiate with Republicans. Rather, they and their allies in the mainstream media are lambasting Republicans for their “irresponsibility” in seeking to include spending cuts with an increase in the debt ceiling.

    America’s national debt is approximately 122 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), meaning the government owes more than the population produces. Interest payments on the national debt follow in size behind other federal budget big spending areas of Social Security, Medicare, and “defense.” While interest payments are made, the national debt continues to grow each year.

    Government spending steals resources from the private sector. Thus, there is less capital available for private businesses to grow and create new jobs. Government spending also contributes to price inflation and the declining value of the dollar as the Federal Reserve monetizes the debt. One reason the Fed cannot allow interest rates to rise anywhere near where they would be in a free market is that it would cause the federal government’s interest payments to rise to unsustainable levels. Considering these facts, it should be clear that the irresponsible ones are those who think the government should increase its credit limit without cutting spending.

    This is not to say that establishment Republicans like House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are heroes of fiscal restraint. Rather, McCarthy, like most Republicans, objected neither to increased spending nor to debt ceiling suspensions when Donald Trump was president. Further, any Republican spending plan will likely continue increasing spending on the military-industrial complex while refusing to address the looming cost problems with Social Security and Medicare.

    While some Republicans are willing to discuss reforms to Social Security and Medicare, most are still too afraid of the “senior lobby” to support any changes in the programs – even if such changes will not harm current beneficiaries.

    Consequently, it is unlikely Congress will pass meaningful entitlement reform — at least until it is forced to do so because the Medicare and Social Security Trust Funds run out of money.

    Insolvency is projected for the Medicare Trust Fund in five years and for the Social Security Trust Fund in 12 years. Of course, Congress may be able to avoid making tough choices since the Federal Reserve will likely cut government benefits, along with workers’ wages and the value of savings, via the inflation tax.

    Following early reports that the House Republican leadership was open to supporting cuts in military spending, there arose a predictable cry from Republican hawks that any reduction in spending would leave the US and its allies vulnerable to our enemies. The limited cuts considered, though, would still keep America with a military budget exceeding the combined military budgets of the next nine biggest spending countries. After some pressure from the military-industrial complex’s loyalists and propagandists, most Republicans retreated from supporting defense cuts.

    A problem with many fiscal conservatives is they accept the premise of the welfare-warfare statists. Thus, they are unable to make consistent principled arguments supporting spending cuts and opposing spending increases. The key to restoring a free society is for a critical mass of individuals to reject statism.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 20:00

  • ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany's Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of "Global Catastrophe"
    ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany’s Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of “Global Catastrophe”

    A weekly round-up of geopolitical flashpoint and energy news we’re keeping our eyes on, and trends impacting global markets, which will later be accessible for Premium members and above…

    The start of this week saw no less than four top level Russian officials warn of impending “global catastrophe” if the West keeps ramping up heavier arms to Ukraine, now as the decision of Germany to sign off on sending its Leopard II tanks looms.

    State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, asserted in fresh remarks that NATO providing more weapons to Ukraine risks “global tragedy that would destroy” Western countries. “Supplies of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime would lead to a global catastrophe,” Volodin said. “If Washington and NATO supply weapons that would be used for striking peaceful cities and making attempts to seize our territory as they threaten to do, it would trigger a retaliation with more powerful weapons.”

    And one can read further ultra dire warnings from Moscow’s point of view… specifically from Lavrov, Peskov, and Medvedev… all statements issued on Monday. The red line is being laid out quite brightly. 

    As for whether these escalatory scenarios will come to pass, with Russia and the West continuing to slide toward direct military confrontation, the question of whether or not Germany resists the growing pressure from allies for it to lead the way on sending its Leopard 2 main battle tanks looms. Can Berlin resist? Will Kremlin warnings be heeded by Berlin? And for how long? Despite a growing political rift both within the Scholz government among NATO allies more broadly, it’s not looking good. Germany has already bowed to pressure early in the conflict, given it walked away from its historic neutrality. The outcome to the tank question is likely to be decided by month’s end.

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    To gain a sense of the gloomy, apocalyptic outlook from Moscow on a looming war with NATO and the future course of the Ukraine conflict, see the above weekend Russian state TV segment with a panel of officials moderated by editor-in-chief of RT, Margarita Simonyan. Very serious talk indeed.

    * * *

    Below are global developments we are closely following this week…

    Russia-Ukraine

    • Poland ramping up pressure on Berlin to send German tanks to Ukraine: DW

    • Warns Germany of “international isolation”… could send without approval?: DW

    • Broader NATO pressure (and division) mounts over tank issue: AW

    • State Duma official says “global catastrophe” coming due to ramped up Western arms: RTRS

    • German Intelligence: Ukraine losing hundreds of soldiers daily: AW

    • Russia touts gains around Bakhmut, smashes Ukrainian lines with artillery: TASS

    • US media cites anon officials to claim spate of mail bomb attacks at embassies in Europe the work of Russian intelligence: NYT

    • The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun: MofA

    • Former PM Boris Johnson makes yet another visit to Kiev: RTRS

    • NATO Baltic members Estonia & Lithuania boot Russian ambassadors, downgrade relations: RTRS

    • Very dark Russian state TV segment predicts worst-case spiral: Video

    • Norway holding Wagner deserter, will not deport to Russia: DW

    • Pentagon extends airborne troop deployment in southeast Romania: AW

    China-Asia

    • US National Guard training Taiwan troops in expanded program: Nikkei 

    • GOP House Speaker McCarthy planning Taiwan visit: PN

    • Will China view it differently than Pelosi’s visit, given he’s in ‘opposition’? SCMP

    • Germany eyes ‘China lite’ future that is less dependent: Nikkei

    • China will join Russia and South Africa for February naval drills: SCMP

    • Beijing issues another veiled warning over Taiwan: VOA

    • Yellen in Africa talks China threat: FT

    • China’s biggest oil trading firm goes on a buying spree: OP

    Middle East/World

    • Pressure on US occupation in Syria ramping up with drone attacks: Hill

    • Lebanese pound crashes to new low of 50,000 against the dollar: NA

    • Hardline Israeli govt risks triggering another Gaza flare-up: NA

    • Soaring inflation in Egypt… on the brink of another uprising? MEE

    • Israel-Saudi normalization efforts off to rocky start: JPost

    • 130,000 Israelis protest govt’s anti-democratic reforms: Haaretz

    • Pentagon can’t account for $220BN of gear given to contractors: Reason

    • Abraham Accords not so popular on ‘Arab street’: RS

    • Saudi goods allowed in Syria after 11 years of trade ban: MEE

    • Erdogan tells Sweden not to expect Nato bid support: BBC

    • South Africa likely to use China and Russia as “bargaining chips” in its dealings with US: SCMP

    Energy

    • Massive blackout in Pakistan impacts some 200 million people: BBC

    • UK’s National Grid to pay people to use less power as cold snap bites: RTRS

    • Musk agrees with JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that it will take 50 years to transition to green energy: FOX

    • Italy to wean itself off Russian gas within two years: OP

    • US energy chief says Biden would veto House Republican bill on oil reserve: RTRS

    • Oil market braces for fresh turmoil as EU prepares to cut off Russian diesel: FT

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 19:40

  • Biden Administration Still Pushing For Forced Masking
    Biden Administration Still Pushing For Forced Masking

    Authored by Ian Miller via The Brownstone Institute,

    The Biden Administration recently reinforced their commitment to retaining authority to impose endless COVID mandates on the American people…

    In April 2022, a federal judge in Florida ruled that the CDC had overstepped its authority by requiring airlines to mandate masks on domestic flights.

    Essentially every company almost immediately moved to make masks optional. Many even allowed passengers, in flight, to remove their masks, to mass celebrations.

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    It was also a dramatic win for science, as years of data have proven that masks are entirely ineffective at preventing the spread of COVID.

    The unfortunate trend of in-flight arguments and fights also dropped dramatically after the court overturned the mandate.

    In February 2022, the rate of unruly passenger incidents on domestic flights was 6.4 per 10,000 travelers. Following the end of the mandate, that number dropped to 1.7 per 10,000. 

    So, not only do masks not work, they actually likely cause significant, potentially dangerous disagreements.

    Experts warned that it would lead to a surge in flight cancellations within a few weeks. Naturally, cancellation data showed that the exact opposite situation unfolded.

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    Additionally, in the nearly nine months since the policy ended, cases in the US have remained low. While the winter of 2021-2022 saw a massive surge of infections with the mandate in place, no such surge materialized through the end of 2022.

    But none of that’s stopped the Biden administration from appealing the ruling.

    While this might not necessarily mean the immediate return of mandates on planes, it would allow the CDC to retain that authority.

    Will Mask Mandates Return?

    Oral arguments in the case were scheduled for Tuesday, with no indication yet how the appeal will go. But previous statements by the Justice Department show how committed they are to masking.

    Despite the inarguable reality that masks do not work to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, the attorney arguing the case said that they should have the authority to reimpose mandates for future pandemics.

    “You can imagine the next pandemic, there was an outbreak of measles or SARS and the CDC would want to and need to take swift action in order to control such a pandemic in the future,” the attorney for the Justice Department said.

    “I think the important thing here is that the potential collateral estoppel effect of the district court’s ruling could tie up future CDC actions.”

    It’s extremely concerning that the Justice Department apparently believes that masks on planes would be able to “control such a pandemic,” especially measles. 

    It’s equally concerning that they believe the CDC is competent enough to “control such a pandemic.”

    They utterly failed to “control” this one with masks on public transit. On top of their recommendations that politicians enact some of the most draconian restrictions on normal life ever enacted in the United States.

    But their lockdowns, masks, vaccine passports and other recommended policies were entirely unable to prevent the spread of a highly infectious respiratory virus.

    Yet Biden and his administration are arguing they be allowed to exercise similar, near unlimited control over the freedoms of American citizens regardless.

    Thankfully, a lawyer defending the end of the mandate pointed out the obvious; this has nothing to do with public health. He explained that the appeal’s timing shows how little connection it bears to Americans’ health.

    “This appeal is not about an urgent matter of public health. If the mask order had been such an urgent matter of public health, you would have expected CDC to have applied for a stay to the district court’s ruling,” said the attorney representing the Health Freedom Defense Fund.

    Of course, he’s entirely right. This appeal is about politics, not science.

    Biden and his team want the ability to enforce mandates at their choosing, even after everyone paying attention has seen how pointless and ineffective they are.

    So while it’s hard to say for certain if they would bring back mandates, it’s certainly fair to say that they might.

    Lawyer Jenin Younes explained in several Twitter threads how the circle of authority leads to endless masking.

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    The CDC creates terrible, poorly conducted research and studies claiming to show that masks work. Judges defer to their research to avoid deciding scientific questions, leading them to side with the CDC. Despite the CDC’s demonstrable ineffectiveness and incompetence. 

    They refuse to admit they were wrong, and so instead of learning from their overreach and repeated failures, they’re desperately clawing to retain powers they never had.

    Given that their utterly ridiculous recommendations on masking persist into 2023, it wouldn’t be hard to believe they’d bring them back at the first sign of a “surge.”

    To them, it doesn’t matter how often they’re wrong, it matters that they’re able to tell you what to do.

    *  *  *

    Republished from the author’s Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 19:20

  • California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan
    California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com,

    As California goes, so goes the nation, or so they say. If that rings true, the nation is set for a reversal of some of its strictest renewable energy plans, after the Huntington Beach City Council voted to dump its plan for 100% renewable energy…

    Huntington Beach, California, is changing the plan it had in place with the Orange County Power Authority (OCPA) – a nonprofit offering clean energy.

    But its recent history in a rather unfavorable media limelight has given the city council pause.

    And Huntington Beach wasn’t the first municipality to pull out – Orange County bailed on the green power authority, citing transparency concerns and a series of ugly audits, and allegations that the authority failed to inform the public that their electricity bills were increasing. Orange County was set to begin receiving green power from the authority by the end of this year. The cost of having the county pull out is estimated to be around $65 million.

    For Huntington Beach, there were three plans before it when considering a change in plan:

    1. to keep the 100% renewable energy plan as is,

    2. to go with a “Smart Choice” plan offering 69% renewable energy,

    3. or the “Basic Choice” plan that offered 38% renewable energy.

    They opted for the Basic Choice plan in a vote of 4-3.

    The city council’s change of plan drew criticism from some, while the council argued that the money saved from the pull-out could be better used on other projects, such as enforcing laws around homelessness.

    Huntington Beach’s change of plans follows the launch of the Department of Energy’s $50 million project to help communities transition to clean energy systems—the C2C program.

    “With C2C, we’re helping all kinds of communities — from small rural communities to sprawling urban areas — access the tools and scientific and technological expertise they need to bring their energy systems into the 21st Century” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm in a statement earlier this week. “This exciting program will help communities make informed decisions about their own energy needs and ensure reliable and affordable clean energy is available to Americans everywhere.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 19:00

  • FBI's Most Wanted Woman, Known As 'Cryptoqueen' Sends Signal After Five Years Of Hiding
    FBI’s Most Wanted Woman, Known As ‘Cryptoqueen’ Sends Signal After Five Years Of Hiding

    Ruja Ignatova, known as the “cryptoqueen” for her notorious multi-billion dollar OneCoin Ponzi scheme, has been declared missing since 2017 when US authorities issued a warrant for her arrest. Earlier this month, a legal filing could be the first signs of life after she fled Sofia, Bulgaria, to Athens, Greece, five years ago. 

    Last week, the British newspaper iNews reported that a lawyer representing Ignatova claimed a $13.6 million penthouse in central London. 

    The property is owned by Abbots House Penthouse Limited, an anonymous Guernsey shell company, meaning that Ignatova’s name does not have to appear on land registry deeds or in public records.

    A change in Companies House rules means that beneficial owners of UK-registered firms must now be named in full. But the fugitive appears to have emerged out of hiding to make a formal claim on the London property. -iNews

    Jamie Bartlett, the host of The Missing Cryptoqueen podcast, who has tried to locate Ignatova, said this news was “one of the most interesting developments in the story.”

    “The world’s most wanted woman is now officially listed as the ultimate beneficial owner of a London penthouse,” he added.

    “It suggests she is still alive, and there are documents out there somewhere which contain vital clues as to her recent whereabouts. If nothing else it should make it easier for the authorities to freeze that asset – and maybe even start getting money back to victims.”

    The FBI believes she might have traveled on a German passport from Athens, possibly to the UAE, Germany, Russia, Eastern Europe, or even back to Bulgaria. She is on the FBI’s top 10 ‘most wanted’ list concerning $4 billion cryptocurrency fraud. It wouldn’t be a surprise if she used some high-quality fake identity documents and altered her appearance to evade authorities. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 18:40

  • Iran Claims Panama Oil Tanker Cancellations Were Politically Motivated
    Iran Claims Panama Oil Tanker Cancellations Were Politically Motivated

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

    Iran has dismissed the significance of Panama’s de-flagging of more than a hundred tankers allegedly used by Iran to ship oil abroad in violation of U.S. sanctions.

    “We reiterate that such efforts are not only viewed as insignificant and unsubstantiated, but they have been publicized due to political pressure by the imperialist government of the United States,” the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization said in a statement cited by Press TV.

    The statement followed the release by the Panama Maritime Authority of another statement saying it had de-flagged several hundred vessels since 2019 in compliance with the UN’s Convention on the Law of the Sea and in line with Panama’s own efforts to counter illicit financing and illegal fishing, Forbes’ Dominic Dudley reported earlier this month.

    The AMP’s statement came in response to an op-ed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, in which he claimed Panama had been helping Iran’s regime to survive by helping the government smuggle oil in violation of sanctions. Jeb Bush sits on the advisory board of an organization dubbed United Against Nuclear Iran.

    The Panama Maritime Authority (AMP), the entity in charge of the Panamanian Ship Registry, rejected the assertions made by Jeb Bush, a member of the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) Advisory Board, in a Washington Post op-ed from January 16, 2023, titled “How the United States can stop Panama from helping Iran avoid oil sanctions,” the AMP said in its statement.

    “The Government of Panama maintains a close collaboration with the Government of the United States of America through the Embassy of the United States in Panama, and through direct communication with the Department of State, regarding the Registry of Ships and other safety issues of shared importance,” the authority also said.

    In its response, the Iranian maritime authority advised Panama to think about the legal and international implications of such statements, Press TV reported.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 18:20

  • "Labor Hoarding": New Theory Emerges To Explain The Lack Of Labor Market Collapse
    “Labor Hoarding”: New Theory Emerges To Explain The Lack Of Labor Market Collapse

    Setting aside how credible any data released by the BLS now is – considering that not just this website but even the Philly Fed has challenged the accuracy of the Payroll reports’ Establishment survey, while Goldman recent found that actual layoffs as indicated by state WARN notices are far higher than those seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor, there was one data point that prompted quite a few commentators to scratch their heads. Recall that one of the reasons stocks were pleasantly surprised by the jobs report is that not only did payrolls dip again (if printing as usual above average), but average hourly earnings slumped. But there was more: alongside the decline in wages, average hours worked also declined (which had a material impact on the average wages, and had hours been flat, the decline in average wages would have been even more pronounced).

    Why does this matter? Well, as Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky wrote on Friday, the deceleration in wage gains as of late and “the shirking of hours worked is in no way consistent with a wage spiral, and in fact suggests something unusual might be happening as corporates reluctant to shed hard to find labor are shrinking the work-week/hours worked rather than cutting payrolls.” This would make intuitive sense if one assumes that employers are still smarting from the difficulty to find workers in the post-covid months when millions of low and medium-income workers simply exited the workforce. As such, if everyone is convinced that the coming recession will be light, employers are more tempted to shrink (in some cases aggressively) their employees’ hours rather then engage in layoffs, especially if they are concerned they will have difficulty finding workers in a few months (all of this, of course, assumes that the recession will be “shallow” whatever that means).

    As evidence, Privorotsky shows the decline in the average employee workweek as proxied by both the Philadelphia and Empire Fed’s surveys.

    Others at Goldman agree, and in a note published by the bank’s economist team looking at the ongoing rebalancing in the labor market (available to pro subs), they found that while Labor demand still remains high it is now falling: “The trend has admittedly become murkier recently as measures of job openings have diverged. But the average of these measures is still declining, and business surveys also suggest that total labor demand is still coming down.”

    Here is the interesting part in the Goldman report, :

    Labor supply has at most a bit more room to recover. The discussion about labor supply during the pandemic has mostly centered on “missing workers,” and for the first couple of years there was indeed room for the labor force participation rate to rebound as fiscal support and Covid fears faded.

    But we noted last summer that the participation rate had already largely recovered, and the small increase in December to 62.3% brought it to our year-end target that embedded some further cyclical recovery to offset an ongoing downward trend driven by demographics. While prime-age participation is still a bit below its pre-pandemic rate, the overall participation rate has now nearly returned to the CBO’s estimate of the trend implied by demographic changes, as shown on the left of Exhibit 4, and a new paper by economists Bart Hobijn and Ayşegül Şahin also suggests that the gap is largely closed.

    The remaining labor supply shortfall relative to pre-pandemic trends actually comes less from reduced participation than from a decline in average work hours. In another paper, Şahin, R. Jason Faberman, and Andreas I. Mueller use data from a supplement to the New York Fed’s consumer survey to show that workers’ desired work hours dropped sharply during the pandemic and remained depressed at least through the end of 2021, when their data end, with much of the decline coming from people classified as outside of the labor force who occasionally enter it, such as retirees. New research by Dain Lee, Jinhyeok Park, and Yongseok Shin shows that average hours have fallen since 2019, especially among college-educated prime-age men and among those who work the longest hours, as shown on the right of Exhibit 4. Because, as the authors note, these workers work far longer hours than is typical for US workers let alone those in other high-income countries, this change might persist to some extent.

    Maybe the best discussion on this topic comes from Amberwave co-founder Stephen Miran, who earlier today tweeted some of his observations on why the US is still not in a recession, and concludes that “the principal reason is the missing construction layoffs.  Mortgage rates shot up from 3% to 7%, making buying a home unaffordable for many folks.  Normally, one expects a slowdown in construction activity and layoffs.  But, construction employment is at all time highs!”

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    Arguing that in light of the dramatic slowdown in activity in the construction sector, “we’d expect huge layoffs”  with “expected layoffs in the neighborhood of 500k to 800k jobs, and with multipliers, this would be 1 to 3 million total losses. That’s a real recession.”

    But these layoffs still haven’t taken place, prompting Miran to proposed several explanations why not:

    1. They will.  (Maybe, but I don’t see -any- sign of them in the data…yet.). There are some reasons for expecting the layoffs to eventually come.  In particular, the huge divergence between the number of homes being sold and the number of homes currently under construction, which will presumably come down as homes are completed.

    2. The extraordinary backlog of homes demand due to pandemic changes in the economy like wfh.  This is a possible explanation, but presumably at some point runs out?

    3. Labor hoarding by builders, i.e. holding onto employees for fear of being able to replace them if necessary in a tight labor market.  Miran says that he is “generally dismissive of labor hoarding for the economy as a whole, but more sympathetic in the building sector.  Why?”

    The principal reason is the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed in 2021.  As I pointed out at the time in WSJopinion, the IIJA is going to further fuel inflation.

    Going into CY2023, there’s going to be ~$38 billion of Federal spending on construction and other projects kicking in. In CY24, it’ll be closer to $54 billion.  Assuming some multipliers, these go a long way to offsetting a big chunk of the decline in private structures spending. (Ignore the decline in direct spending here, that’s largely the offsets from reduced spending on phrama or subsidies to GSEs)

    In other words, I suspect builders are holding onto employees because the $$$ being spent by Uncle Sam on construction are going to start kicking in this year.  Given a historically tight labor market where employees seem to have all the power, they’d rather hold onto the workers

    Why lay off your workers now if you expect real difficulty in hiring them back if building starts to pick back up, particularly for nonresidential construction?

    While this may well be the most likely explanation, and one which will be tested most easily by the severity of the coming recession (if indeed there is labor hoarding within construction, an extended deterioration in the sector will only result in an even more acute collapse in construction jobs in the near-term), there is another possible explanation, namely that financial conditions have eased significantly since September: stocks, mortgage rates, the dollar.

    It’s not difficult to imagine a world in which home prices fall by 10% or so, but given strong wages, resilient stocks, and falling mortgage rates, final demand stays robust.  Given the historic run up in home prices, builders are still very profitable at those levels. In other words, maybe builders expect a surge of private demand in the near future and are therefore holding onto their employees.

    Miran’s conclusion is spot on, and boils down to the following: The missing construction layoffs ARE the missing recession.  If they come, we’ll have a recession.  There’s a reason for expecting them to come (homes under construction lagging sales), and reasons for expecting them not to (future demand picking up, private & public)

    Watching this sector will give us a clue as to whether we’ll see a recession or not.  In the meantime, real incomes are accelerating on lower inflation, and as I’ve stressed 100x, financial conditions easing ought to induce a pickup in GDP growth

    There is thus some chance the economy reaccelerates before those layoffs come, and the recession is avoided.  However, in that case, the Fed will be goaded into a new hiking cycle, as inflation will pick back up, and the recession will be delayed and not avoided.

    Afternote: there’s a race between the exhaustion of the backlog & the coming construction layoffs, vs. a reacceleration of the economy on easing financial conditions & IIJA boosting construction demand. Which of these forces wins the race determines whether we have:

    • Recession, or
    • Burst of growth, followed by new hiking cycle, followed by recession

    In other words, we will either get a recession, if construction employment suddenly tumbles, or we will get a transitory growth burst – largely on the back of the market pricing in the coming Fed pause – which will avoid a round of mass layoffs in construction, which will however lead to even more inflation, and an even more aggressive hiking cycle, leading also to recession.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 18:00

  • Social Security Will Be Bankrupt By 2033 On Current Trajectory: CBO Report
    Social Security Will Be Bankrupt By 2033 On Current Trajectory: CBO Report

    Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

    A recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that two major Social Security funds in the United States will dry out in the coming decades, with one of them running out within the next 10 years as younger members in the programs are set to lose more than older members.

    “If the gap between the trust funds’ outlays and income occurs as CBO projects, then the balance in the trust funds will decline to zero in 2033 and the Social Security Administration will no longer be able to pay full benefits when they are due,” the CBO stated in its report, published in December (pdf).

    The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2033 and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2048, the agency said. If the trust funds are combined, the money will be gone by 2033.

    The CBO expects spending on Social Security to increase to 7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2096, up from 5 percent of the GDP in 2022.

    During this period, revenues are only expected to remain at 4.6 percent of GDP, resulting in an ongoing deficit.

    If Social Security outlays were limited to what is payable from annual tax revenues, the benefit payments would be roughly 23 percent smaller than originally scheduled by 2034. By 2096, the benefit payments would be 35 percent smaller, with the gap remaining stable from then on.

    In such a situation, the younger cohort born in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s would see their initial benefits reduced by 24, 27, and 28 percent respectively. Their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 26, 27, and 27 percent, respectively.

    For older beneficiaries born in the 1950s and 60s, initial benefits would not be affected too much. Their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 9 percent and 19 percent, respectively.

    Protecting Social Security of Senior Citizens

    In 2021, Social Security amounted to 17 percent of federal spending, according to the CBO. Lawmakers are currently debating how to address America’s debt ceiling issue, with some proposing cuts to Social Security. The United States officially hit its debt limit on Thursday.

    In a video message, former President Donald Trump called on GOP members to not compromise on Social Security.

    “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security to help pay for Joe Biden’s reckless spending spree, which is more reckless than anybody’s ever done or had in the history of our country,” Trump said in the statement posted to Truth Social on Friday.

    “Do not cut the benefits our seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives,” he said. “Save Social Security. Don’t destroy it.”

    The CBO projections come as Social Security benefits are set to increase by 8.7 percent in 2023, which is the biggest boost in four decades. In 2022, benefit payments were increased by 5.9 percent.

    Despite the record increase in benefit payments this year, there are concerns about whether it will be enough to keep up with decades-high inflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 17:40

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