Today’s News 26th December 2022

• Disinformation, Censorship, And Information Warfare In The 21st Century
  Disinformation, Censorship, And Information Warfare In The 21st Century

  Authored by Michael Senger via Brownstone Institute,

  All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

  – Sun Tzu, the Art of War

  In recent years, prominent national security officials and media outlets have raised alarm about the unprecedented effects of foreign disinformation in democratic countries. In practice, what they mean is that democratic governments have fallen behind in their command of the methods of information warfare in the early 21st century. As outlined herein, while information warfare is a real and serious issue facing democratic governments in the 21st century, the war on disinformation, as currently practiced, has backfired spectacularly and done far more harm than good, as evidenced most clearly by the response to COVID-19.

  We begin with the definitions and history of a few key terms: Censorship, free speech, misinformation, disinformation, and bots.

  

  Censorship and Free Speech

  Censorship is any deliberate suppression or prohibition of speech, whether for good or ill. In the United States and countries which have adopted its model, censorship induced by governments and their appendages is constitutionally prohibited except in the narrow category of “illegal speech”—e.g., obscenity, child exploitation, speech abetting criminal conduct, and speech that incites imminent violence.

  Because censorship involves the exercise of power to silence another individual, censorship is inherently hierarchical. A person who lacks the power to silence another cannot censor them. For this reason, censorship inherently reinforces existing power structures, whether rightly or wrongly.

  Though the United States may be the first country to have enshrined the right to free speech in its constitution, the right to free speech developed over centuries and predates the Western Enlightenment. For example, the right to speak freely was inherent to the democratic practices of the political classes in Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome, even if it was not enshrined in words. This is only logical; because these systems treated all members of the political class as equals, no member of the political class had the power to censor another except with the consent of the body politic.

  The right to free speech developed and receded in fits and starts over the coming centuries for a number of reasons; but in accordance with George Orwell’s view of institutional evolution, free speech developed primarily because it afforded an evolutionary advantage to the societies in which it was practiced. For example, the political equality among Medieval British lords in their early parliamentary system necessitated free speech among them; by the 19th century, the cumulative benefits of this evolutionary advantage would help make Britain the world’s primary superpower. The United States arguably went a step further by enshrining free speech in its constitution and extending it to all adults, affording the United States a still greater evolutionary advantage.

  By contrast, because censorship depends on and reinforces existing power structures, censors tend especially to target those who seek to hold power to account. And, because the advancement of human civilization is essentially one unending struggle to hold power to account, this censorship is inherently incompatible with human progress. Civilizations that engage in widespread censorship therefore tend to stagnate.

  Misinformation

  Misinformation is any information that is not completely true, regardless of the intent behind it. A flawed scientific study is one form of misinformation. An imperfect recollection of past events is another.

  Technically, under the broadest definition of “misinformation,” all human thoughts and statements other than absolute mathematical axioms are misinformation, because all human thoughts and statements are generalizations based on subjective beliefs and experiences, none of which can be considered perfectly true. Moreover, no particular levels or “degrees” of misinformation can be readily defined; the relative truth or falsity of any information exists on a continuum with infinite degrees.

  Accordingly, because virtually all human thoughts and statements can be defined as misinformation, a prerogative to identify and censor misinformation is extraordinarily broad, depending entirely on the breadth of the definition of “misinformation” employed by the censor in any given instance. Because no particular “degrees” of misinformation can be defined, an official with a license to censor misinformation could censor virtually any statement at any time and justify their action, correctly, as having censored misinformation. In practice, because no man is an angel, this discretion inherently comes down to the biases, beliefs, loyalties, and self-interests of the censor.

  Disinformation

  Disinformation is any information shared by a person who knows it to be false. Disinformation is synonymous with lying.

  Disinformation goes back centuries and is far from limited to the Internet. For example, according to Virgil, toward the end of the Trojan War, the Greek warrior Sinon presented the Trojans with a wooden horse that the Greeks had supposedly left behind as they fled—without informing the hapless Trojans that the horse was, in fact, filled with the Greeks’ finest warriors. Sinon could rightly be considered one of history’s first accounts of a foreign disinformation agent.

  In a more modern example of disinformation, Adolf Hitler convinced Western leaders to cede the Sudetenland by making the false promise, “We want no Czechs.” But just a few months later, Hitler took all of Czechoslovakia without a fight. As it turned out, Hitler did want Czechs, and much more besides.

  Technically, disinformation can come just as easily from a source either foreign or domestic, though how such disinformation should be treated—from a legal perspective—is very dependent on whether the disinformation had a foreign or domestic source. Because the greatest challenge in distinguishing simple misinformation from deliberate disinformation is the intent of the speaker or writer, identifying disinformation presents all the same challenges that people have faced, since time immemorial, in identifying lies.

  Is a statement more likely to be a lie, or disinformation, if someone has been paid or otherwise incentivized or coerced to say it? What if they’ve wrongly convinced themselves that the statement is true? Is it enough that they merely should have known the statement is untrue, even if they didn’t have actual knowledge? If so, how far should an ordinary person be expected to go to find out the truth for themselves?

  Just like lying, disinformation is generally considered negative. But in certain circumstances, disinformation can be heroic. For example, during the Second World War, some German citizens hid their Jewish friends for years while telling Nazi officials that they did not know of their whereabouts. Because of circumstances like these, the right to lie, except when under oath or in furtherance of a crime, is inherent to the right to free speech—at least for domestic purposes.

  Defining “foreign disinformation” further complicates the analysis. Is a statement “foreign disinformation” if a foreign entity invented the lie, but it was shared by a domestic citizen who was paid to repeat it, or who knew it was a lie? What if the lie was invented by a foreign entity, but the domestic citizen who shared it did not know it was a lie? All these factors must be considered in correctly defining foreign and domestic disinformation and separating it from mere misinformation.

  Bots

  The traditional definition of an online bot is a software application that posts automatically. However, in common usage, “bot” is more often used to describe any anonymous online identity who is secretly incentivized to post according to specific narratives on behalf of an outside interest, such as a regime or organization.

  This modern definition of “bot” can be difficult to pin down. For example, platforms like Twitter permit users to have several accounts, and these accounts are allowed to be anonymous. Are all of these anonymous accounts bots? Is an anonymous user a “bot” solely by virtue of the fact that they’re beholden to a regime? What if they’re merely beholden to a corporation or small business? What level of independence separates a “bot” from an ordinary anonymous user? What if they have two accounts? Four accounts?

  The most sophisticated regimes, such as China’s, have vast social media armies consisting of hundreds of thousands of employees who post to social media on a daily basis using VPNs, allowing them to conduct vast disinformation campaigns involving hundreds of thousands of posts in a very short timespan without ever resorting to automated bots in the traditional sense. Thus, Chinese disinformation campaigns are impossible to stop algorithmically, and even difficult to identify with absolute certainty. Perhaps for this reason, whistleblowers have reported that social media companies like Twitter have effectively given up on trying to police foreign bots—even while they pretend to have the issue under control for purposes of public relations.

  Information Warfare in the Present Day

  Owing to the seriousness with which they’ve studied the methods of information warfare, and perhaps to their long mastery of propaganda and linguistics for purposes of exercising domestic control, authoritarian regimes such as China’s appear to have mastered disinformation in the early 21st century to a degree with which Western national security officials can’t compete—similar to how the Nazis mastered the methods of 20th century disinformation before their democratic rivals.

  The magnitude and effects of these foreign disinformation campaigns in the present day are difficult to measure. On the one hand, some argue that foreign disinformation is so ubiquitous as to be largely responsible for the unprecedented political polarization that we see in the present day. Others approach these claims with skepticism, arguing that the specter of “foreign disinformation” is being used primarily as a pretext to justify Western officials’ suppression of free speech in their own countries. Both arguments are valid, and both are true to varying degrees and in various instances.

  The best evidence that national security officials’ alarm about foreign disinformation is justified is, ironically, an example so egregious that they have yet to acknowledge it happened, seemingly out of embarrassment and fear of the political fallout: The lockdowns of spring 2020. These lockdowns weren’t part of any democratic country’s pandemic plan and had no precedent in the modern Western world; they appear to have been instigated by officials with strange connections to China based solely on China’s false claim that their lockdown was effective in controlling COVID in Wuhan, assisted in no small part by a vast propaganda campaign across legacy and social media platforms. It’s therefore essentially axiomatic that the lockdowns of spring 2020 were a form of foreign disinformation. The catastrophic harms that resulted from these lockdowns prove just how high the stakes in 21st century information warfare can be.

  That said, the astonishing failure of Western officials to acknowledge the catastrophe of lockdowns seems to speak to their unseriousness in actually winning the 21st century information war, justifying skeptics’ arguments that these officials are merely using foreign disinformation as a pretext to suppress free speech at home.

  For example, after the catastrophic lockdowns of spring 2020, not only did national security officials never acknowledge foreign influence on lockdowns, but on the contrary we saw a small army of national security officials actually engaging in domestic censorship of well-credentialed citizens who were skeptical of the response to COVID—effectively exacerbating the effects of the lockdown disinformation campaign and, conspicuously, making their own countries even more like China.

  The Orwellian pretext for this vast domestic censorship apparatus is that, because there is no way to properly identify or control foreign social media bots, foreign disinformation has become so ubiquitous within Western discourse that federal officials can only combat it by surreptitiously censoring citizens for what the officials deem to be “misinformation,” regardless of the citizens’ motivations. These officials have thus deemed well-qualified citizens who oppose the response to COVID-19 to be spreading “misinformation,” a term which can encompass virtually any human thought or statement. Depending on their underlying motivations and loyalties, the actions of these officials in surreptitiously censoring “misinformation” may have even been an intentional part of the lockdown disinformation campaign; if so, this speaks to the multi-level complexity and sophistication of information warfare in the 21st century.

  There are signs that some of the primary actors in this vast censorship apparatus were not, in fact, acting in good faith. For example, Vijaya Gadde, who previously oversaw censorship operations at Twitter and worked closely with federal officials to censor legal and factual speech, was being paid over $10 million per year to act in this role. While the dynamics and definitions of misinformation and disinformation are philosophically complex, and Gadde may have legitimately not understood them, it’s also possible that $10 million per year was sufficient to buy her “ignorance.”

  These problems are exacerbated by the fact that honest institutional leaders in Western countries, typically of an older generation, often don’t fully appreciate or understand the dynamics of information warfare in the present day, seeing it as primarily a “Millennial” problem and delegating the task of monitoring social media disinformation to younger people. This has opened up a promising path for young career opportunists, many of whom have no particular legal or philosophical expertise on the nuances of misinformation, disinformation, and free speech, but who make lucrative careers out of simply telling institutional leaders what they want to hear. As a result, throughout the response to COVID-19, we saw the horrifying effects of disinformation effectively being laundered into our most venerated institutions as policy.

  Winning the 21st Century Information War

  While the dynamics of information warfare in the early 21st century are complex, the solutions need not be. The idea that online platforms have to be open to users of all countries largely harkens back to a kind of “kumbaya” early-Internet ideal that engagement between peoples of all nations would render their differences irrelevant—similar to late-19th century arguments that the Industrial Revolution had made war a thing of the past. Regardless of how widespread foreign disinformation may actually be, the fact that national security officials have secretly constructed a vast apparatus to censor Western citizens for legal speech, supposedly due to the ubiquity of foreign disinformation, lays bare the farcical notion that online engagement would resolve differences between nations.

  It’s morally, legally, and intellectually repugnant that federal officials in the United States have constructed a vast apparatus for censoring legal speech, bypassing the First Amendment—without informing the public—on the pretext that the activities of foreign regimes which have been deliberately permitted on our online platforms have gotten so out of control. If foreign disinformation is anywhere near that ubiquitous in our online discourse, then the only solution is to ban access to online platforms from China, Russia, and other hostile countries that are known to engage in organized disinformation operations.

  Because the effects of foreign disinformation can’t be accurately measured, the actual impact of banning access to our online platforms from hostile countries isn’t clear. If disinformation alarmists are correct, then banning access from hostile countries could have a significant ameliorative effect on political discourse in democratic nations. If skeptics are correct, then banning access from hostile countries might not have much effect at all. Regardless, if federal officials really don’t think there’s any way to allow users in hostile countries to access our online platforms without circumscribing the United States Constitution, then the choice is clear. Any marginal benefit that’s gained from interactions between Western citizens and users in hostile countries is vastly outweighed by the need to uphold the Constitution and the principles of the Enlightenment.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 23:30

• Crematory Overrun In Beijing's Southeastern District, Burning 150 Bodies Daily: Reports
  Crematory Overrun In Beijing’s Southeastern District, Burning 150 Bodies Daily: Reports

  Authored by Sophia Lam via The Epoch Times,

  A crematory in the Tongzhou District of Beijing announced a limit to bodies of non-residents, according to Beijing Youth Daily Thursday.

  

  The crematory has to “maintain cremation equipment” and accepts a maximum of 20 bodies daily from people who don’t have district residence certificates and have died in hospitals outside of the district, a notice posted by the crematory says.

  The Civil Affairs Bureau of Tongzhou District told Beijing Youth Daily on Dec. 22 that the district crematory has been overwhelmed due to an increase of bodies to be cremated.

  “In the past, the daily workload [of the Tongzhou Crematory] was about 40 corpses. Now employees have to work overtime to cremate 140 to 150 bodies every day,” the state-run media wrote, adding that the crematory is short of staffers as some of its employees have been infected by COVID.

  Waiting Time 7 Days

  Overseas media have also reported on the overloaded operation of the crematory.

  “We are very busy every day; we have never been so busy before,” Mr. Lin, a staffer working at Beijing’s Babaoshao Crematorium, told The Epoch Times on Dec. 14.

  When speaking with the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times in an earlier interview, Ms. Liu, an employee working at Tongzhou Crematory, said that the cremation waiting time was seven days and that the farewell ceremony had been canceled.

  

  A coffin is loaded from a hearse into a storage container at the Dongjiao crematorium and funeral home, one of several in the city that handles COVID-19 cases in Beijing, China, on Dec. 18, 2022. (Getty Images)

  Reuters reported Wednesday “a steady queue of around 40 hearses” waiting for cremation and “a full parking lot” at Tongzhou Crematory.

  Other funeral homes and crematoriums in Beijing have reportedly been extremely busy since mid-December, with a cremation waiting time of five days to 11 days.

  Contrary to the overwhelming crematories in Beijing, China’s National Health Commission announced a total of 550 COVID cases in Beijing on Dec. 22. It reported no death for the day.

  In less-densely populated China’s northeastern Liaoning Province, cremating waiting time is reportedly at least two days in its provincial capital Shenyang. Residents have to seek workarounds such as cremating their loved ones in more remote county funeral homes and paying higher fees for the cremation and funeral services.

  The contradictory numbers trigger doubts about an earlier time of the outbreak of the new wave of the pandemic and a more severe situation.

  Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported on Dec. 19 that there were large-scale infections in the medical system in Beijing, citing a high-level official in Beijing’s political and legal system. The Chinese official said that Beijing covered up the serious epidemic due to the maintenance of stability during the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th national congress, which was convened in October in the capital.

  The WHO’s emergencies director Mike Ryan said at a press briefing in Geneva on Dec. 14 that the virus was spreading “intensively” in China long before the lifting of zero-COVID measures, reported Reuters.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 22:45

• Dave Collum's 2022 Year In Review, Part 2: The War In Ukraine & How Does It End?
  Dave Collum’s 2022 Year In Review, Part 2: The War In Ukraine & How Does It End?

  Authored by David B. Collum, Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology – Cornell University (Email: dbc6@cornell.edu, Twitter: @DavidBCollum),

  

  Hello darkness my old friend. I come to talk with you again.

  ~ Simon and Garfunkle in The Sounds of Silence

  This Year in Review is brought to you by Pfizer, FTX, and Raytheon…

  Every year, David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year’s is no exception, with Dave striking again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way.

  Read Part 1: 2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine here…

  To download this Part 2 as a pdf, 2022 The Year in Review: The War in Ukraine.

  The War in Ukraine

  The decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq…I mean of Ukraine… 1

  ~ Former President George W. Bush, Freudian slipping

  We are on the cusp of WWIII, what could become the most inclusive war in history, with world leaders who seem incapable of orchestrating a decisive paintball attack. Like so many, I rely on geopolitical events to learn about politics and geography. Task #1: figure out where Ukraine is located on a map. I stumbled upon this top-secret Pentagon strategy map:

  

  Oh my God. They have already removed Russia! Task #2: resolve spelling and grammar issues. Is it Ukraine or The Ukraine; Odesa or Odessa; Kiev or Kyiv; Zelensky, Zelenskiy, or Zelenskyy; Donbas or Donbass; and Dumbass or Biden? First disclaimer: there is no chance that I can understand a border war in or near the Baltics. I take solace in that y’all are in the same boat. I am grand theorizing—creating big narratives for a hopelessly complex topic—describing the World According to Dave. I am layers into the onion but doubtlessly layers away from truths because I am fishing shit off the internet about a war said by the legendary journalist John Pilger and filmmaker Oliver Stone to be the most propaganda-slathered war in their lifetimes. 2,3 My immutable rule of thumb: if their lips are moving they are lying.

  War cannot be reduced to distinction between good guys and bad guys. 4

  ~ Pope Francis

  We can all agree that the list of victims in this war is non-statistically populated by Ukrainians. They are dying, and their world is being upended. If, however, you think that this is a simple story about good versus evil, you need a CT scan. I am especially talking to the devout members of the Sanctimony-Industrial Complex—Eric Hoffer’s fanatical True Believers—who will take any opportunity to be part of a grand movement to elevate their lives by signaling their virtue. I was on a Zoom call with a member of the clergy in which he stated that “it is Putin’s fault because Putin attacked.” I curtly told that punk-ass zealot—quite an impressive one actually— “If I have some guy in my face, and it is clear that this is not going to resolve well, my immediate goal becomes finding a way to land the first punch to ensure there is no second punch.” (I did say that.) Months later I discovered that I had inadvertently paraphrased Putin. If you think Putin is, by definition, wrong because he attacked first, you have neither read much nor thought very deeply about the Ukraine conflict or the origins of wars.

  We could have hit Saudi Arabia—it was part of that bubble—could have hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could. 5

  ~ Thomas Friedman, author and The Great Pontificator

  When I get caught in conversations with those with certainty about Russia as the only instigator, I resort to moral equivalency and ask, “Which sovereign state bombed more countries and killed more people over the last two decades, the U.S. or Russia? The U.S. has militarily intervened 251 times since 1991. 6 The Obama administration bombed seven Muslim countries. Bush Jr. killed upwards of a million Iraqis. Which of those countries attacked us? (Hint: none.) The US conducted three consecutive days of airstrikes in Syria this year. The Pentagon said, “these strikes are a message to Tehran.” 7,8 That’s so odd because I didn’t even realize Tehran is in Syria, or did we bomb one country to send a message to a different country? I can hear somebody saying, “But…but…but…they were dangerous because…” Oh shut the fuck up, and go hum a few bars of Crimea River, Justin. 9 That does not give us the right to bomb them back to the stone age. There are many countries with nukes that we don’t bomb. Here are Leslie Stahl and Secretary of State Madeline Albright comparing notes on the Iraq War: 10

  Lesley Stahl: We have heard that a half million [Iraqi] children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

  Madeleine Albright: I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

  You’re right Madeline: nobody gives a shit about brown people anyway, what Chris Hedges sarcastically calls “bad victims” unworthy of our empathy. Check out this montage of virtuous members of the US press expressing why we should care about the Ukrainians unlike other victims—they are like us! 11 By the way, while Madeline was green-lighting the slaughter of children, does anyone remember the Western press airing footage of those atrocities? Any photos of the half-million bloated and dismembered carcasses of children? Agree with Madeline if you like, but statistically speaking, the U.S. leaders are the ones who should be taken to the Hague for crimes against humanity.

  The greatest crime since World War II has been U.S. foreign policy.

  ~ Ramsey Clark, former U.S. Attorney General

  So, here is my advice to the sanctimonious: drop the holier-than-thou ‘tude when you are talking about this war. While you are at it, ponder why y’all justified punishing musicians and conductors, 12,13 professional athletes, 14 or just wealthy people 15,16,17 simply because they have Roosky heritage. For Christ’s sake: why not lock them in barracks for the duration of the war like the Japanese Americans? Bombing a Russian cultural center in Paris seems a tad excessive. 18 Facebook and Instagram adjusted their hate speech policy to allow users to incite violence against Russians and Russian soldiers and turned off the spigot for anything that smacked of pro-Russia. 19 All this should seem a little jingoistic even for the most sanctimonious. 20 As an aside, are the neo-Marxists on college campuses monitoring Russian students’ well-being, or are they only concerned about Ukrainians?

  As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we have temporarily made allowances for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules like violent speech such as ‘death to the Russian invaders.’21

  ~ Facebook

  Take a peek at this 2022 vintage documentary 21 about a very quirky 1985 film entitled, “Come and See” 22 illustrating Russia’s experience with the horrors of war. While watching our elite try to bend Russians to our will at the expense of the Ukrainians, don’t forget that nobody knows how to suffer like a Russian. Then, lighten it up with this British comedy skit that asks the rhetorical question, “How do we know we are not the baddies?” 23

  The notion that a political leader, or anyone for that matter, is entirely bad or good, is puerile. The same consideration can be given to nation-states, political systems or even models of world order. The character of a human being, a nation or a system of global governance is better judged by their or its totality of actions. 24

  ~ Iain Davis, independent investigative journalist

  Wars are never simple. Recall that we got into the 2003 Iraq War owing to fake stories about babies being stabbed in incubators, 25 bullshit evidence of weapons of mass destruction (which, I should reiterate, does not give us the right to bomb a country), and intel from a deep source named “Curveball” who would say anything in exchange for a few of the C-notes shipped to Fallujah on pallets by the CIA. 26 Or maybe go back further to consider:

  • the U.S. baiting the Germans to sink the arms-laden Lusitania to enter WWI; 27

  • the fully provoked attack by the Japanese through a door left wide open at Pearl Harbor to enter WWII; 28

  • the Gulf of Tonkin fiasco to get us into Vietnam; 29

  • Even the Gulf War, while ostensibly to liberate the Kuwaitis from the evil Saddam Hussein, which was a trap set by our State Department: 30

  We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary [of State James] Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960s, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America.ref 31

  ~ April Glaspie, U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie, setting the trap on Saddam to invade Kuwait

  If you want the accepted War in Ukraine narrative, turn on CNN or MSNBC. My strategy was to examine the events that pre-date the Drums of War. After the War in Ukraine began, the media coverage was bullshit (and turtles) all the way down.

  In the following sections, I’ll talk about my sources and delineate the key players in this drama. We’ll then wander through some contemporary events that run counter to the mainstream narrative. Just to reiterate: from a dead cold start, there is no way I got the whole story correct. I can, however, offer up pieces of a huge jigsaw puzzle that seem to match up. I identify as a Reagan Republican, not some commie dog, although I appear to be playing one on the internet. Woof. I am challenging conventional wisdom because I wish to fulfill our dreams of being the good guys.

  

  While trying to sort out such complex stories, I avoid reading books. I want to assemble a narrative rather than reiterate somebody else’s. Of course, even the pieces have embedded narratives and may be laced with propaganda. It is my compromise. However, I broke my no-book rule this time by reading The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin by Steven Myers 1 recommended by America’s favorite Roosky, Lex Fridman. I must admit it seemed remarkably balanced and unbiased until the moment Putin was elected President. From that page on, Myers had nothing favorable to say—not one positive word. It was as though a new author took control, some aggressive editing was inserted, or the Zebra changed the color of his stripes at that moment. I am still looking for a book that is neither pro- nor anti-Putin. A 6-part psychoanalysis of Putin was overconfidently overstated and biased to the core, but it had some interesting logic. 2

  Some useful source materials include documentaries such as “Ukrainian Agony,” 3 “Ukraine–Masks of the Revolution,” 4 especially Oliver Stone’s “Ukraine on Fire” (2016), 5 and Stone’s discussion of Putin with Lex Fridman. 6 I also binge-watched every Putin interview and speech I could find including Stone’s multi-part interview, 7,8,9 Precious few pundits are willing to speak out against NATO. Here are capsule sketches of notable allies—comrades if you will—devils advocating their asses off.

  What’s going on here is that the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.

  ~ John Mearsheimer, 2015

  John Mearsheimer graduated from West Point, got his PhD at Cornell, and is on the faculty at the University of Chicago. He has been the most outspoken detractor of NATO for over a decade, asserting its policies are driving us toward World War III. 10,11,12,13,14,15,16 He passed along this Munk Debate to me in which he and Steve Walt (Harvard Kennedy School) took on Michael McFaul (former Ambassador to Russia) and Radosław Sikorski (member of the European Parliament and former Polish Minister of Defense) along with some choice private opinions of his opponents’ tactics and attitudes. 17 I will kiss-and-tell one line from that email: “It is impossible to slow this train down save for nuclear use.” Mearsheimer laments that democracies waging distant wars are consistently the biggest liars. “That, in a nutshell, is the United States.” Meanwhile, the media no longer searches for truth, having become an administrative state—a pawn of the Deep State.

  Jeff Sachs at the Athens Democracy Forum: The most violent country in the world since 1950 has been the United States.

  Moderator interrupting: Jeffrey…Let’s…Jeffrey: Stop now. Let’s…Let’s…Jeffrey: I’m…I’m…I’m your moderator, and it’s enough

  Jeffrey: OK. I’m done. [to applause and laughter]. 18,19

  Jeffrey Sachs is an elite economist from Columbia University who was an advisor to many of the Warsaw Pact nations in the post-Soviet Union world. 20,21,22,23,24,25 Jeff may not always be right, but he calls balls and strikes and says he cannot even get op-eds published now.

  This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean U.S./NATO forces right on Russia’s border.

  ~ Tulsi Gabbard

  Tulsi Gabbard, former Democratic Congresswoman from Hawaii recently estranged from the DNC, has a military background and has consistently taken an anti-war stance. She argues firm to the notion that NATO was the proximate trigger and could have prevented the war. 26,27 (Coda: I suspect her estrangement from the DNC might have been purchased with a promise to be a VP running mate in 2024. We shall see. I have also called out Svante Myrick as a DNC-derived presidential candidate several decades from now. We shall see about that, too.)

  One of the first lessons of objectivity is to slow things down to make sure that fact is not obscured by emotion.

  ~ Scott Ritter

  Scott Ritter is a former marine corps intelligence officer who provides technical analysis of the war that conflicts with CNN’s. 28,29,30,31,32,33 He first came under the spotlight testifying in front of an irate Joe Biden who spurned Scott’s intel indicating there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. 34 Mearsheimer referred to Scott’s Gulf War analyses as “so knowledgeable.” 35 Although Ritter’s resume has some scuff marks related to inappropriate sexual conduct, 36 his sparring with the Deep State renders such blemishes highly suspect and irrelevant anyway. Ritter has proven himself particularly prescient by predicting Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine, events that were later interpreted differently in the mainstream media when they played out as described.

  NATO had ample opportunity for peace but deliberately chose war. The U.S. realized that, with Russia’s back to the wall, it would have no choice but to attack.

  ~ Richard Black

  Colonel Richard Black served 31 years in the U.S. Marine Corps and later served in the Virginia State Senate. He does not get smeared on Wikipedia. 37 He views the Ukraine war as a resource grab of Ukraine and Russia by the U.S. under the cover of NATO. In 2022, Black wrote an open letter to Congress warning of the mounting risks of military conflict that began in 2014. 38,39,40 He decried the lure of “war profits even if it means gambling the lives of hundreds of millions of people across the globe.”

  There’s this attempt to destroy Russia. We’ve decided to make it this blood-enemy that has to be eliminated because it refuses to march down the path that Europe has.

  ~ Colonel Douglas MacGregor

  Colonel Douglas MacGregor is a highly decorated Gulf War veteran. He is known as innovative with unconventional thinking. 41 His views on the US role in the Middle East are hawkish. In brutally direct language, MacGregor supports Russia’s claims about the Donbas region going back to 2014. 42,43,44,45 The Senate blocked his nomination as ambassador to Germany, and he narrowly missed an appointment as the National Security Advisor.

  War propaganda stimulates the most powerful aspects of our psyche, our subconscious, our instinctive drives…The more unity that emerges in support of an overarching moral narrative, the more difficult it becomes for anyone to critically evaluate it…When critical faculties are deliberately turned off based on a belief that absolute moral certainty has been attained, the parts of our brain armed with the capacity of reason are disabled. 46

  ~ Glenn Greenwald, Substack and most famous for his Snowden Tapes

  Other voices dissenting against the prevailing narrative include off-broadway journalists such as Scott Horton, 47 Ron Paul, 48 Max Blumenthal, 49 Aaron Mate, 50,51,52.53 Glenn Greenwald, 54,55 Nigel Farage, 56 Pope Francis, 57,58 the Swiss Policy Research, 59 Chris Hedges, 60 European Union MEP Clare Daly, 61,62 Tucker Carlson, 63,64 former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, 65 former CIA analyst Jacques Baud, 66,67,68 journalist John Pilger, 69 Oliver Stone, 70 The Last American Vagabond, 71,72 Gonzalo Lira on the ground in Ukraine, 73,74 Whitney Webb, 75 Tom Luongo, 76 Matt Taibbi,77 pro-Soviet journalist Vladimir Pozner, 78 substack bloggers Kanekoa, 79 blogger Will Schryver (@imetatronink), 80 and even Jordan Peterson. 81

  The Players

  Four players are central to my version of this drama: Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Azov Battalion.

  Before plowing into the swamp, I’ve got to confess that for a number of years now I have found myself sympathetic to Putin. He’s no snowflake, but his moves on the global chessboard and role in Russian affairs seem decidedly logical relative to ours; he is tactically maxed out.

  ~ Me, 2017 Year in Review

  Vladimir Putin is an enigmatic figure who I mentioned in 2014 after the Ukrainian coup and highlighting Mearsheimer’s warnings, 1 in 2015 in light of Syria and a brief shutdown of Russian natural gas, 2 in 2016 about the Drums of War becoming audible, 3 in 2017 trying to unscramble the Steele dossier and Russian collusion farce, 4 and in 2018 while analyzing the farcical stories about the Skripal poisoning and my efforts to cause an international incident by calling the Brits liars on Russia Today. 5 I have the disadvantage of knowing nothing about Russia, especially compared to those who have spent time in the region. Maybe that’s an advantage—a friend of mine with Ukrainian ties loses his shit talking about the subject—but it is a marginal advantage. I find the West’s tendency to blame Putin for everything imaginable, including an increasing number of clearly self-inflicted wounds, to be deeply troubling and dangerous. Trump’s strongest campaign plank in 2016 was, for me, his desire to “get along with the Russians”. Of course, the Deep State put a lid on that with fake Russian collusion stories.

  

  Putin is as inscrutable as you would expect for an ex-KGB agent and current leader of Russia. My opinion of the man is largely aligned with that of Oliver Stone’s in the Stone-Fridman interview. 6 Here are some opinions of Putin masquerading as declarative statements:

  • Putin is probably scarred by his tough Russian upbringing, leaving him with inadequate compassion. By Western standards , he would be a sociopath. 7 Although often called a narcissist, that seems too simple. I have no doubt that more than a few who crossed him regretted it, but I am also doubtless that western media distortions are profound.

  • He is a Russian nationalist. While his geopolitical tactics are not soft-touch, I find claims that he is attempting to reassemble the Soviet Union are far-fetched propaganda. His famous lamenting of the collapse of the Soviet Union is usually taken out of context. He was troubled by the post-collapse chaos that could have been avoided. I see a loose analogy with the period in Britannia following the Roman withdrawal.

  • To Putin, loyalty is everything. It undoubtedly shuts down what westerners might consider constructive open debate. The part missed by many is that in his younger years as a subordinate he offered the same fealty that he expects today. It was central to his rise to power.

  • Putin’s unflinching directness is brutally refreshing in a world with more waffles than an IHOP. In his interviews, he shows little or no evasiveness.

  • His gravitas dwarfs that of western leaders, which include Biden, Trudeau, Macron, and Johnson. (I’m withholding judgment on Italy’s decidedly spunky Meloni.) It is a low bar to hurdle, but gravitas is a minimum requirement to rise in Russia. The pundits confounded by his popularity in Russia should look inward and ask why his image in the West is not so shabby either despite their best efforts:

  

  • He is not a madman, although rumors of recent mental demise lately lack hard data to support or refute that claim. Contemporary analyses of Putin’s physical and mental health are likely to be so tainted by the intelligence agencies as to be worthless. Judge him by his interviews.

  • Some analyses paint Vlad as a strict rule follower. 8 By example, a major delay in a particular decision during the war derided by the West was attributed to completing the plans “by the book.” He had the firepower to run for a third consecutive term as president by changing the rules and did not 9 (although he certainly maintained control.)

  • Here is a contentious assertion: in his early days as a bureaucrat it was said that he “cannot be bribed.” 10 Now he is portrayed as fabulously wealthy, but I have been unable to confirm what seems to be innuendo. Those around him, however, have benefitted enormously from their proximity to power. His top-down control of industry benefitted many close to him, but that could be a consequence of his centralized control of the economy. One can only infer that he is profiting.

  • His actions Ukraine could be construed as either an energy grab or defensive tactics to prevent an energy grab. 11 Regardless, the politics are very thick.

  • His battles against the oligarchs draw negative press. When asked about it, he simply noted, “They robbed Russia blind.” That turns out to be true: none of the oligarchs made their billions fair and square. 12 Although Kordokovsky spent a decade in Siberia, where his confiscated assets reside remains unclear to me.

  I may be forced to back away from some of these points. I blame the utterly worthless western press for setting me adrift rudderless on the internet in my quest for wisdom. Here are thoughts about the War and NATO from Putin or through his spokesmen in their own words (which, admittedly, are Putin’s too). They are revealing:

  Your people do not yet feel an impending sense of danger. That worries me. Can’t you see the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction? Meanwhile, people pretend that nothing is going on. I don’t know how to get through to you anymore. 13

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  Imposing sanctions is the logical continuation and the distillation of the irresponsible and short-sighted policy of the U.S. and EU countries’ governments and central banks…The global economy and global trade as a whole have suffered a major blow, as did trust in the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency. The illegitimate freezing of some of the currency reserves of the Bank of Russia marks the end of the reliability of so-called first-class assets…Now everybody knows that financial reserves can simply be stolen. 14

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we, of course, will use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them. 15

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  It is extremely alarming that elements of the U.S. global defense system are being deployed near Russia. The Mk 41 launchers, which are located in Romania and are to be deployed in Poland, are adapted for launching the Tomahawk strike missiles. If this infrastructure continues to move forward, and if U.S. and NATO missile systems are deployed in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be only 7–10 minutes, or even five minutes for hypersonic systems. This is a huge challenge for us, for our security. 16

  ~ Vladimir Putin, December 21, 2021

  The Russian President made clear that President Biden’s proposals did not really address the central, key elements of Russia’s initiatives either with regards to non-expansion of NATO, or non-deployment of strike weapons systems on Ukrainian territory…To these items, we have received no meaningful response. 17

  ~ Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy adviser to Putin February 12, 2022

  The dollar enjoyed great trust around the world. But for some reason it is being used as a political weapon, imposing restrictions…the U.S. Dollar will collapse soon.

  ~ Vladimir Putin, 2021

  We are not threatening anyone…We have made it clear that any further NATO movement to the east is unacceptable. There’s nothing unclear about this. We aren’t deploying our missiles to the border of the United States, but the United States is deploying their missiles to the porch of our house. Are we asking too much? We’re just asking that they not deploy their attack-systems to our home…What is so hard to understand about that? 18

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  Our mistake was we trusted you too much, and your mistake was you took advantage of that. 19

  ~ Vladimir Putin to the U.S. on NATO incursion, 2017

  No matter how much Western and so-called supranational elites strive to preserve the existing order of things, a new era is coming, a new stage in world history. And only truly sovereign states can ensure high dynamics for growth and become an example for others. 20

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  We do not care about the eyes of the West. I don’t think there’s even room for maneuver left anymore. Because both [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson and [Foreign Secretary Liz] Truss say publicly: ’We must defeat Russia, we must bring Russia to its knees.’ Go on, then, do it. 21

  ~ Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia

  Do you know that 450 individuals were arrested after entering the Congress? They came there with political demands.

  ~ Vladimir Putin, 2021

  You can’t feed anyone with paper—you need food; and you can’t heat anyone’s home with these inflated capitalizations—you need energy. The United States is practically pushing Europe toward deindustrialization in a bid to get its hands on the entire European market. These European elites understand everything—they do, but they serve the interests of others. 22

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  We are actively engaged in reorienting our trade flows and foreign economic contacts towards reliable international partners, primarily the BRICS countries. 23

  ~ Vladimir Putin

  If the West continues to pump Ukraine full of weaponry out of impotent rage or a desire to exacerbate the situation…then that means our geographical tasks will move even further from the current line. 24

  ~ Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia

  The game of nominal value of money is over, as this system does not allow us to control the supply of resources…Our product, our rules. We don’t play by the rules we didn’t create. 25

  ~ Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom

  Any fourth-grade history student knows socialism has failed in every country, at every time in history.

  ~Vladimir Putin, 2014 (disputed)

  During the time of the Soviet Union the role of the state in the economy was made absolute, which eventually led to the total noncompetitiveness of the economy…I am sure no one would want history to repeat itself.

  ~ Vladimir Putin, communist, 2012

  Does that sound like the rantings of an unstable personality? Putin’s comments also foreshadow what the brawl is about.

  War is not only a military opposition on Ukrainian land. It is also a fierce battle in the informational space.

  ~ Zelensky, fighting WWIII on Twitter

  Volodymyr Zelensky rose to become the elected leader of Ukraine in 2019. He is a colorful character married to a hot wife, consistent with his role as a trained media star with a law degree to boot. One is struck by similarities between Volo’s TV presence to the SNL “sprockets skit.”

  

  

  A highly successful 2019 presidential run rode the back of promises to clean up the corruption in Ukraine, a country said to be one of the most corrupt in the world. 26 Volo’s ties with the WEF and Klaus Schwab don’t instill confidence. 27 By Ukrainian standards, he is legitimately wealthy man, but the debate of his actual net worth is unclear. He has holdings in several companies with ties to the Ukrainian Nazis (see below), 28 real estate in several countries, 29,30 ties to the Russian oligarchs, 31,32 the backing of a sketchy Ukrainian billionaire, 33,34,35,36,37 and a series of off-shore accounts awkwardly outed by the Pandora papers. 38,39

  Given the levels of corruption in Ukraine, none of this is that surprising. Rumors of him being a billionaire oligarch have been actively fact-checked, 40 but his oligarchical status seems sound. I have no trouble imagining that Volo was not a billionaire in 2021 but became one in 2022 given the massive and untraced dollar flows into Ukraine. Every time Vlad and Volo seemed to be getting along, more NATO money showed up.

  

  

  Despite Jewish roots, Zelensky is affiliated with the ruthless and decidedly antisemitic Azov Battalion. My mental construct is that the Azov Battalion is akin to the Mexican drug cartels—what they lack in numbers they make up with ruthlessness. His gazillionaire patron is said to be funding the Azov boys 41 but with the big money coming in from NATO/CIA sources. 42,43 Ritter posited that the Azovs promised Volo he would die a horrible death if he didn’t cooperate.44,45 Ritter also suggested that early in the conflict the Rooskies felt they could work with Volo and positioned an extraction team nearby in case he needed help. Strange world.

  We’re supposed to just veer away from the narrative that was being pushed just a couple of years ago. What the f*ck is that? What is that? 46

  ~ Joe Rogan, about pre-war Zelensky the Nazi

  

  Volo was absolutely the perfect guy to win the hearts, minds, and wallets of the world, tapping into a combination of charm, fluent English, and theatrical skills. Did I already mention the hot wife? It was a brilliant campaign aided by the US tech giants and their propaganda machines, 47 the Hollywood stars, and global elite, 48,49,50 all visiting Kyiv with remarkable ease given it’s a putative war zone. Volo was even hitting up Xi Jinping to help rebuild Ukraine 51 despite China’s and Russia’s perceived relationship. I’m surprised he didn’t start a SPAC and sell NFTs. Time magazine had Zelensky as a frontrunner on its list of “favorites to win the Nobel Peace Prize,” which is funny when juxtaposed against Volo’s contemporaneous call for a full-blown war to be initiated by a 30-country alliance against a nuclear superpower:52,53

  We therefore humbly call upon you, the Committee, to consider: Extending and thereby re-opening the nomination procedure for the Nobel Peace Prize until March 31, 2022 to allow for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for President Zelensky and the people of Ukraine. 54

  ~ letter from 36 current and former European politicians

  I once again appeal to the international community, as it was before February 24: preemptive strikes so that they [Russia] know what will happen to them if they use it, and not the other way around.

  ~ Zelensky, on eve of being shortlisted for the Nobel Prize

  He got Time’s participation trophy:

  

  The Ukrainians are complaining all the time that they don’t see much of the money…it’s an enormous scam.

  ~ Colonel Douglas Macgregor

  The U.S. has been pouring money and weapons into Ukraine throughout the war that I spitball at $100 billion. 55,56 The Ukrainian lobby in Canada with backing by Chrystia Freeland dropped a billion dollars under Operation UNIFIER 57 to train Ukrainian neo-Nazis. In their denial, Canadian authorities admitted the Azov guys were not good people. Irish taxpayers are giving money for “Ukraine’s current and future needs” even though they have no ties to NATO. 58 The UK committed to 6,000 missiles and to pay Ukrainian soldiers and pilots. 59

  Biden slipped up 60 and said we had boots on the ground contrary to his pledge. 61,62 Did anybody doubt this? Those sophisticated weapons aren’t gonna shoot inspect themselves. Recall we had advisors in Vietnam in 1962. How did that work out? Two “advisors” got grabbed by the Rooskies, their whereabouts are unknown to me. 63

  Although it’s not clear whether Volo simply overplayed his hand or something politically deeper occurred, but questions of waste and mismanagement of resources began surfacing. 64,65,66,67 While mooching billions, which showed up suspiciously before the bars opened every Friday night, he was threatening to default on Ukrainian debt. 68 The cash was said to “dissolve into a black hole of secrecy, corruption, deceit, and now, default.” 69 The weapons disappeared into the black market. 70 And then there is the FTX-DNC connection I described in Part 1. CBS News buried a documentary on graft associated with the military support for Ukraine because Volo’s supporters and the Military-Industrial Complex were not happy. 70,71 Protests around Europe suggested that Johannes Sixpack was growing weary of their sacrifice for a proxy war. 72

  Show a little more gratitude. 73

  ~ Joe Biden to Zelensky

  Volo showed his dark side in the pre-war era when his regime banned teaching kids in Russian in the ethnically Russian-rich eastern provinces. 74 A 2019 video shows him ranting about how his army is ready to go to war in the Donbas. 75 I have no idea if pre-war atrocities (below) committed by the Azov punks can be hung on the Zelensky regime, but the U.S. buck stops at the top.

  For the truth about the Zelensky regime, Google these names: Voldymyr Struk Denis Kireev Mikhail & Aleksander Kononovich Nestor Shufrych Yan Taksyur Dmitri Djangirov Elena Berezhnaya Once again: If you haven’t heard from me in 12 hours or more, put my name on this list.

  ~ Gonzalo Lira, journalist of unknown credibility

  While Volo was charming the world out of tens of billions of dollars, he was also doing things that you might expect from the president of a profoundly corrupt and authoritarian state:

  • Volo unplugged three television networks that included the voices of his political opponents even though they had showed no support for Russia. 76

  • He banned and seized the assets of OPPL—the second largest political party in the country and his direct opposition; they were prohibited from “all activity within Ukraine.” 77 He also included ten smaller parties in the purge. 78

  • Volo imprisoned local political opponents 79 and tried to extradite and imprison those abroad despite no evidence they were supporting Russia.

  • The dismissal of senior officials raised more than a few bushy eyebrows. 80,81

  • Volo banned Christianity—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church—as of December, 2022 and seized its property. 82

  • Ukrainian authorities threatened all-expense-paid stays in the gulags for 18–60-year-olds who used to stay and fight for the homeland. 83 Some are being shot, although this may be unofficial actions of the Azov Boys. 84

  Tucker Carlson took the homogenous western narrative to task for claiming that Ukraine is a democracy 85 and took all Bible-thumping politicians on the right and sanctimonious politicians on the left for their silence. I know why many hate Tucker Carlson—I did too—but he is one of the few conservative talking heads who crosses the center line and touches third rails. He is the mirror image of Bill Maher.

  The U.S. is the most warlike country on earth.

  ~ Jimmy Carter

  One of Volo’s most inexplicable moves was to put out a hitlist—metaphorical or real is unknowable—of Westerners seemingly not buying his story. 86,87,88,89 The list includes such luminaries as Marine Le Pen, Tulsi Gabbard, Glenn Greenwald, Jeff Sachs, Scott Ritter, and Rand Paul. 90 Seems like he overplayed that hand. He also called for the prosecution of the U.S. and European megabank CEOs for “committing war crimes” because of their Russian ties 91 after reaching out directly to their CEOs to no avail. Dude: you cannot manhandle bankers like Canadian truckers.

  After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a near universal understanding among political leaders that NATO expansion would be a foolish provocation against Russia. How naive we were to think the military-industrial complex would allow such sanity to prevail.

  ~ Chris Hedges, very left-wing independent journalist

  NATO (The North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was formed in 1949 as a post-WWII association of nations whose primary purpose was to oppose the rising power of the Soviet Union. It, by design, explicitly posed an existential risk to the Soviets, but that is not to say that NATO always behaved aggressively. After a lifetime of immersion in the Cold War, I had two thoughts when the Soviet Union collapsed: (a) “Holy shit!,” and (b) few years later, “who is going to oppose us?” Pulling away one of two equal and opposite forces produces a huge power shift. I remember reading of Jeff Sachs’s assurances to the former Soviets that there would be a Marshall Plan-like response from the West. It never materialized because, without the Soviet threat, who needs a Marshall Plan?

  Explicitly calling Putin a war criminal and for his removal from power meaningfully increases the risk of either chemical or nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine. 92

  ~ Niall Ferguson, Harvard University and the Hoover Institute

  Amidst the uncertainty of the Soviet Union splintering into a collection of directionless Warsaw Pact nations and the nervousness of a reuniting Germany, NATO promised Russia that if they didn’t push to reassemble the Warsaw Pact nations, NATO would not push eastward to absorb them. Declassified documents from US and Russian archives 93,94 revealed that Yeltsin was assured the “Partnership for Peace” was not a NATO expansion and Russia would be included.

  Well, as the agreement with Yeltsin was being worked out NATO’s expansion was already secretly underway. Secretary of State Warren Christopher later said that the drunken Yeltsin had Vodka goggles on and didn’t realize that the West planned to “lead to gradual expansion of NATO.” 95 The written record backs Yeltsin. Bill Clinton started the move in 1997. 96 One of the legends of the cold war, George Kennan, called the expansion “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” 97 The late Russian expert Stephen Cohen was hypercritical of the demonization of Russia (Russophobia). 98 Here is a young Joe Biden admitting that bringing Baltic states into NATO would be a mistake. 99 As the tweeter disrespectfully noted, “Even shit-for-brains knew.” Here’s Vice President Shit-for-Brains sometime later cat-calling Russia for their concerns over NATO’s expansion. 101

  The decision for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisively made in 1993. I called this a big mistake from the very beginning. It was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990. 100

  ~ Mikhail Gorbachev, former leader of the Soviet Union

  Ukraine is strategically critical for Russia, but I cannot find evidence that Russia wants possession of Ukraine. There is, however, copious evidence that Russia perceives NATO’s control over Ukraine a profound threat. NATO’s relentless sanctions and threats against Russia over decades leaves little doubt that the Russian view is sound. 102 The U.S. could and would sever Russia’s ties to Ukraine in a heartbeat. Within the halls of power, the cold war never ended.

  The bottom line is that the strategic interests of the United States are to prevent Russia from becoming a hegemon. And the strategic interests of Russia are not to allow the U.S. close to its borders. 103

  ~ George Friedman, Founder of Stratfor, 2014

  NATO and the CIA have been dumping money and weapons into Ukraine for years, 104,105 and CIA operatives have been crawling all over Ukraine, arming and training troops for a potential conflict with Russia. This is provocative, but those actions are neither legally nor tactically the same as Ukraine being in NATO. The CIA- and Ukrainian-oligarch-sponsored Maiden Coup in Ukraine in 2014 106,107 brought U.S. puppet Yatsensuk and his Nazi loyalists to power. 108,109 (Funny trivia point: The oligarch, Ihor Kolomoysky, who funded the coup owns Burisma Holdings.) George Friedman, the head of the private intelligence firm Stratfor, called it “the most blatant coup in history.” 110 That’s a high bar. It also led to some hilarity as super-neocon and Dick Cheney protegé, Victoria Nuland, 111,112 was recorded planning the swap and saying, “Fuck the EU.” She now works for Biden…or vice versa.

  The extent of the Obama administration’s meddling in Ukraine’s politics was breathtaking…One can legitimately condemn some aspects of Moscow’s behavior, but the force of America’s moral outrage is vitiated by the stench of U.S. hypocrisy. 113

  Ted Galen Carpenter in Foreign Affairs, 2017

  The year 2014 represented a phase change. Mearsheimer says that year NATO began training thousands of Ukrainian troops per year and providing more money and weapons, eventually with the help of Erik Prince of Blackwater fame. 114 Joint military exercises were designed to facilitate “interoperability” so that they could work with NATO forces. Here are Senators Graham, McCain, and Klobuchar rallying the Ukrainian troops in 2016. 115 “Klobuchar” is Ukrainian and loosely translates as “insufferable, self-serving neocon.”

  

  By 2021, NATO-trained troops were holding war exercises on Russia’s borders. 116 Meanwhile, between 2014 and 2022 the civil war in the Donbas killed an estimated 14,000 people as Ukrainian Nationalists put some whoop-asskyy on ethnic-Russian separatists. 117

  

  Azov Battalion has deep roots. For a crash course on its origins, the documentary Ukraine on Fire (2016) is probably a good start. 118 An off-off-Broadway analyst—The Last American Vagabond—does an interesting, well-documented, and extemporaneous analysis, pulling together connections of fascist groups around the globe under the umbrella called the Azov Movement, all using remarkably common logos and symbolism. 119,120 This Twitter thread gives some backdrop.121

  The Ukrainian Nazis—called “nationalists” by news sanitizers—trace back to at least WWII. Ukraine was split into two factions. Ukrainian “nationalists” led by Stepan Bandera in Western Ukraine worked with the Germans to battle the Soviets. They were brutal ethnic cleansers and antisemites. 122 To this day, the so-called Banderites celebrate Stepan Bandera’s birthday. 123 During the cold war the U.S. cozied up to Bandera delineated in a great book, The Devils Chessboard (see Books), 124 with the CIA providing cover for numerous atrocities. Bandera got whacked in 1959 by either the Soviets or the CIA.

  While the Nazi presence in Ukraine is thoroughly documented, what may surprise some is their postwar fascist influence throughout Europe. A documentary recounting the profound role closet fascists played in founding the EU is both convincing and disturbing. 125 Prior to 2022, the existence of a dangerous Nazi population in Western Ukraine was widely covered and uncontested. Since the onset of the War in Ukraine, the press has tried to erase that history. Recall Nina Jankowicz’s role (Part 1). 126 I suspect that earlier efforts to de-Nazify the public record would have been more aggressive if NATO analysts had believed that Putin would make his move.

  

  In the late 1980s, the Banderites rejuvenated a neo-Nazi movement and, with NATO assistance, incited civil unrest leading up to the U.S.-led 2014 coup. 127 The Banderites were also in cahoots with the cops during brutal and well-funded “Maydan” protests. Victoria Nuland et al. realized the Nazis were their best shot at giving Russia guff. 128 There are also the usual stories of George Soros being involved. Contacts with McCain, Graham, and Biden attest to the level of U.S. involvement. The CIA-led coup eventually ousted highly flawed Putin puppet Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and replaced him with highly flawed US puppet Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

  It was one of the most provoked invasions of our lifetimes because of the West dumping its arms in Ukraine.

  ~ Max Blumenthal, independent journalist

  Following Ukraine’s 2014 coup, the Banderites consolidated the Azov Battalion while embarking on a campaign of terror against ethnic Russians in the Donbas, all coordinated by CIA director John Brennan. 129 Videos show them burning the trade union headquarters killing 41 people trapped inside, 130 while the police stood by. Obama praised these freedom fighters for showing “remarkable restraint.” 131 The Azovs set up headquarters in Mariupol, which, not coincidentally, was a primary Russian military target during the war. If you want a real crash course on these guys, search “Azov Battalion” on Google or Twitter setting a custom date range to pre-January 2022. 132,133 Older BBC and Time documentaries show Nazis behaving badly. 134,135 The evidence of the Azov brutality is unassailable. 136,137 Getting a reliable head count on the Azovs, however, is like counting soldiers in a drug cartel (not easy).

  I will not call people in Donbas Ukrainians; we don’t need them. When Ukrainian tanks enter Donetsk, they (local residents) will be destroyed. 138

  ~ Ukrainian soldier who identifies as a Nazi

  Attempts to rehabilitate the Banderite and Azov image include renaming streets across Ukraine after Banderite heroes. 139 The Times of Israel was not happy. The CIA’s interest in exploiting the Banderites and Azov Battalion and the lack of image rehabilitation until the War in Ukraine began may attest to the CIA miscalculating Putin’s willingness to fight. Given recent efforts to root Nazis and white supremacists out of the U.S. military—no doubt a propaganda lie for some other purpose—it’s ironic that the U.S. and Ukraine were the only votes against a UN resolution condemning the Ukrainian neo-Nazis. 140

  Zelensky was also having trouble hiding the rough-edged Azov shenanigans. Western journalists from the AP accompanied Zelensky’s troops as they kidnap Ukrainians who question the regime. 141 This was for show, but some wondered what happens when the cameras are off. 142 Videos of the Azov thugs beating on civilians and torturing Russian captives are legion, 143,144,145,146 getting removed quickly but propagating like Tribbles. 147 One shows a Ukrainian field doctor saying that they are treating Russian captives who have been castrated. Another shows the Azov’s doing the nasty.148,149 In short, it is very difficult to find redeeming traits in the Azov Battalion.

  Ukraine violated the Minsk deal, Zelenskiy tripled attacks on Donbas and pushed Putin to a special operation that was supposed to last a week but escalated after the West sent money and weapons to Kyiv. 150

  ~ Claudio Berlusconi, former Prime Minister of Italy

  What prompted the invasion?

  A Rand Corporation white paper described how we would get to war with Russia. 1,2 Think tanks aren’t paid by the Pentagon to study issues but rather to propagandize them. 3 Rand summarized ways to trigger incidents between Russia and NATO:

  From the Russian leadership’s perspective, the theater itself could not be of greater significance; Ukraine has long been seen as a core national security concern…This Perspective summarizes the most-plausible pathways that could lead to a Russian decision to target NATO member states during the current conflict, describes the conditions under which Moscow might undertake such actions, and lays out how U.S. and NATO actions — including ongoing military assistance to Ukraine — could affect each pathway’s likelihood.

  ~ Rand Corporation, July 2022

  Cui bono? Well, for starters, the Military-Industrial Complex benefits from the billions. Lloyd Austin was on Raytheon’s board of directors before the revolving door led him to become Secretary of Defense. 4 Former CIA Director Gina Haspel went the other direction, joining the board of BAE Systems as BAE became the chief supplier of artillery to Ukraine. 5 It is nice to see Gina land on her feet. These guys are making a killing by killing. There will never be a promised “peace dividend.”

  Everything that’s being shipped into Ukraine today, of course, is coming out of stockpiles, either at DOD or from our NATO allies, and that’s all great news. Eventually, we’ll have to replenish it, and we will see a benefit to the business. 6

  ~ Greg Hayes, CEO of Raytheon

  The barking of NATO at the gates of Russia…weapons are being tested in that land… Wars are fought for this: to test the weapons we have produced…The arms trade is a scandal; few oppose it. 7

  ~ The Pope on what prompted Putin’s incursion

  One could ask why did Russia wait so long? If all hell was breaking out in Eastern Ukraine, why care now? The obvious answer is the seriousness of the move would give any leader pause, but there were events transpiring that prompted Russia to act.

  Jacques Baud says that the shelling of the Donbas on February 16th made it clear to Putin that a big move against the ethnic Russians had started. 8 Some suggest those same events alerted the Biden administration that shit was about to get real, although it is impossible to believe the U.S. didn’t instigate the escalation.

  Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia. 9

  ~ Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor in a memo to Zelensky on February 19th.

  Zelensky is said to have overtly sandbagged any negotiations. While most military powers negotiate first then go to war, the Russians fight and negotiate concurrently. Destroying Kyiv or Zelensky was not in their plans because it would leave no negotiators. Russia’s goal was to de-nazify and demilitarize Ukraine, not beat them nor destroy infrastructure that would need to be rebuilt. That is also why the fighting in Kharkiv and Mariupol—the home of the Azov Battalion—became particularly intense. 10

  The Biden administration is so intent on punishing Putin, it can hardly focus on the Ukrainians who are dying every day. 11

  ~ DIA officer

  In November 2021, Antony Blinken reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to join NATO and listed Russia’s indiscretions including “continuing malign behavior.” 12 In December the Russians warned us they were “about to lose their shit” and proposed a treaty 13 asking for NATO’s assurance they would not further weaponize Ukraine anymore, and we told them to “bite me.” 14 We did not just disagree; we blew them off. This is Mearsheimer’s key point: we are no longer credible negotiators.

  On February 21 and 24, Putin delivered speeches with their gripes and their need to “demilitarize” and “de-nazify” Ukraine. Steve Walt says Putin was a rational actor given that NATO’s next move was unclear. The Russians had no reason to take our stated intentions on good faith. The previous promises to exclude Ukraine from joining NATO were by handshake—that, according to Mearsheimer, is a common protocol in diplomatic circles—but Putin wanted it in writing this time (as Putin lamented in his interviews with Oliver Stone.) The written promise could be broken, but it would be harder.

  Putin tried desperately to get the British, the French, the Germans, and us to understand that his Russian citizens should be treated equally before the law just like Ukrainian citizens inside this large multi-ethnic state. (But) Zelensky and his friends said ‘No. Either you become what we are or you get out.’ 15

  ~ Colonel Douglas MacGregor

  Some think the war was triggered not by the threat of a NATO incursion per se but when Ukrainian troops started markedly ramping up shelling of ethnic Russian Ukrainians in the Donbas; 16 nine days later Putin made the move with a “special military operation.” Some analysts with nuanced views believed NATO could have stopped the war in those last few days, but NATO had no intention of diffusing the conflict. 17 It appears that Putin accelerated the attack by several days owing to intelligence suggesting imminent mass atrocities in Eastern Ukraine. 18

  Use up the Irish. Their dead cost nothing.

  ~ King Longshanks, Braveheart

  Jumping ahead a little, during the war NATO fanned the flames by calling for the accelerated inclusion of Finland and Sweden. 19 A neocon was ranting that the Kremlin didn’t give a shit, arguing that Russia’s obsession over Ukraine was hypocrisy. What this NATO pimp failed to grasp was that he was making the case for Ukraine being a special issue to Russia. Also, the Kremlin did object strenuously to NATO’s overtures to Finland and Sweden and had previously expressed grave concerns if Sweden and Finland started getting weaponized. 20 Some suggest that the move toward Sweden and Finland is evidence that Ukraine is soon to be under Russian control and that NATO is repositioning for the next brawl. 21 Whatever.

  

  The Drums of War

  The war started out paradoxically. In breathless press conferences, Jake Sullivan claimed the attack was coming, and the reporters simply did not believe him given the total lack of evidence provided. British defense secretary Ben Wallace said it is “highly likely” that Russia will attack Ukraine. 1,2 By contrast, the Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed “the U.S. has been fanning the threat of war, artificially creating a tense atmosphere, which has dealt a serious blow to the economy, social stability and living conditions of the people of Ukraine.” 3 The Chinese, of course, would never lie. However, even the Ukraine Defense Chief noted, “Our intelligence sees every move that could pose a potential threat to Ukraine. We estimate the probability of a large-scale escalation as low.” 4,5 David Arakhamia of Kyiv’s parliament said he was now “99.9% confident that nothing will happen.” 6,7 Zelensky claimed that the U.S. was “provoking panic” and demanded to see firm proof. 8,9 A Russian spokesperson requested facetiously, “I’d like to request US and British disinformation—Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets —to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year.” 10 Zelensky then suggested the war would start February 15th, but that was later claimed to be sarcasm emerging from his comedic roots. 11 He’s a hoot.

  This veneer of chaos and confusion, however, is consistent with the general idea that the US—Oops. I meant NATO—was itching to spark a proxy war that nobody else was thrilled about. A German accused the U.S. of wreaking havoc deliberately to disrupt Russian attack plans. 12 My spidey sense was piqued by two independent emails sent to me from unrecognized sources noting that (a) there was already shelling in the Donbas region of Ukraine by Ukrainians, and (b) large Ukrainian forces had been amassing for months. This was common knowledge, but I knew nothing about the ongoing civil war at that moment in my journey.

  Putin is not intentionally attacking civilians…he is mindful that he needs to limit damage in order to leave an out for negotiations. 13

  ~ William M. Arkin, March 22 Newsweek

  The Russian state department eventually sent a flight to D.C. to pick up their “Russian intelligence agents” from the embassy, 14 and the war started, but at a crawl. If you wanna see serious war footage check out Baghdad on Day One 15 of the Iraq War or even watch Saving Private Ryan for the ninth time. I drove my wife nuts every night declaring, “This doesn’t look like a war to me.” The media covered human interest stories about how awful it was, showed photos of burned-out cars and the occasional explosion in the middle of some street or vacant lot that looked like a stick of dynamite (or M-80) was detonated rather safely. 16 The larger explosions seemed to miss their targets, 17 and huge explosions were so far away that there was no evidence of what blew up.

  I know it’s hard … to swallow that the carnage and destruction could be much worse than it is, but that’s what the facts show. 18

  ~ DIA analyst

  

  It’s odd that the windows survived a car-flipping blast (top), while it appears that a MOAB turned a goat grazing in a vacant field into pink mist. Early footage from Mariupol looked more like grinding poverty from decades-long destruction and decay than a fresh war zone. 19,20 Nightly news footage was highly repetitive showing the same buildings from different angles: is that all the media could find? On-the-ground interviews were either content-free stories or featured people who seemed unaware of what was happening while expressing mixed emotions about Putin versus Zelensky. 21 A British journalist went looking for the war and found shelling of Ukrainians by Ukrainians. 22 Another found neither the war nor other journalists. 23

  I can hear you saying, “Well, what about these horrors you idiot?”

  

  Well, those are horrific scenes, but they are (a) Detroit; (b) Ukraine, 2022; (c) Baltimore; (d) Donbas, 2014; (e) the South Bronx; (f) Mariupol, 2016; (g) Yemen; and (h) Minneapolis, 2020. See how easy it would be for the media to dupe you? I was not alone in my doubts. A powerful analysis by William Arkin of Newsweek makes a strong case that Putin was pulling his punches to avoid infrastructure destruction and civilian casualties. 24

  Heartbreaking images make it easy for the news to focus on the war’s damage to buildings and lives. But in proportion to the intensity of the fighting (or Russia’s capacity), things could indeed be much worse. 25

  ~ U.S. Air Force officer

  Scott Ritter, the U.S. marine who drew scorn from Joe Biden for saying Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, 25 predicted Russia’s WWI-like invasion strategy. In particular, he said with Russia’s small invasion force they did not intend to occupy territory. Ritter also predicted that Putin would draw Ukrainian troops into the cities to defend them. Once accomplished, he would avoid urban warfare circling the cities. You may recall the western press slobbering over Putin’s retreats as evidence Russia was getting toe tagged. MacGregor concurred with Ritter that calling Russian moves “retreats” is silly. 26 Both Colonel MacGregor and CIA analyst Jacques Baud noted that Ukraine was fighting for territory while Russia was fighting to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine with an interest only in tactically important territory. 27 Retired Colonel David Johnson of the Rand Corporation and the Modern War Institute at West Point insinuated that the western press is looking through beer goggles. 28 Battles in the Donbas were said by blogger Will Schryver to be akin to the Maginot Line in which the Rooskies dealt with long-prepared fixed fortifications so efficiently that the strategy “will be studied in war colleges” for years to come. 29

  Before moving on to specific events, here are some random observations from early in the conflict that caught my eye as odd or unexpected:

  • In May, a Russian soldier was convicted of a war crime for shooting a 62-year-old civilian. 30 This is an oddly small crime for war.

  • Despite headlines and breathless narratives, it proved exceedingly difficult to discern which battles were being won and by whom in the early days of the war. Videos showed blurred-out street signs. 31 Putative Russian tanks lacked the traditional markings. It was the fog of war.

  • A Reuters story describing how Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian incursion in the Sumy region showed a picture of guys with paintball guns. 32,33 Apparently, ”Big Paintball,” also known as the “Paintball-Industrial Complex,” is getting its cut. Recall that ABC showed a hellacious fight against Syrians…filmed at a military gun range in the Midwest. 34 Americans got duped by those images too.

  • The United Nations reported 596 deaths three weeks into the war, including 43 children. Biden’s Afghan drone strike in Afghanistan killed six kids in a microsecond. I suspect the Iraq War took out more than 596 people in the first 20 seconds.

  Long-range artillery is very, very important. But so is the hand-to-hand insurgency that we are hoping to see in eastern Ukraine, in the territory that’s already been occupied by the Russians. 35

  ~ Senator Richard Blumenthal, armchair quarterback, volunteering?

  • A pregnant woman in Ukraine scrambling from the horrors of war turned out to be a prominent Instagram model Wagging the Dog. 36

  • Two British mercenaries (MI6 maybe?) were arrested by the Rooskies and taken to court for trying to kill Rooskies.37,38 Seems like a logical charge to me. A couple of Americans got picked up too. 39

  • Ukrainians standing next to a long-defunct factory refused to evacuate because they were “waiting for the Russians to arrive and put the factory back into production.” 40 The plan is that “they will soon be repairing Russian tanks, and then they will have bread on the table again.” They also griped that only the wealthy and those ideologically supportive of the Kyiv regime could evacuate.

  • “Heroic Ukrainian freedom fighters” on Snake Island who flipped off the Russian navy and were said to be “martyred” by the Rooskies are doing fine after all. 41

  • A putative Russian attack on the holocaust museum did not hold up to scrutiny by the Israeli press. 42

  • Russian attacks on a nuclear plant made no sense given the Russians controlled it, and UN inspectors invited in by the Russians found no problems either. 43 Anyone can hit the “broadside of a cooling tower.”

  The media does not allow any word against Ukrainian actions. I’ve asked around to friends and they say, ‘Yeah Jeff. Of course, it is the Ukrainians shelling the plant. 44

  ~ Jeff Sachs

  • Claims of mass rape of Ukrainians by Russian soldiers played well on western news outlets 45 but did not age well when westerners checked the story, eventually leading to the firing of the Ukrainian official offering up these fibs.46 The propaganda defeat 47 was simply ignored by some human rights groups looking for clicks. 48

  • Putative mercenaries were occasionally identified but whether they were ex-military westerners with Ukrainian sympathies or State-sanctioned NATO troops is difficult to say. 49,50

  • The Biden administration’s accusations of genocide by Russian troops 51 were called bullshit by French President Macron and by our Pentagon and U.S. intelligence officials. 52

  • A German journalist is looking at a three-year prison sentence for writing about Ukraine with a Russian slant. 53 Remind me: which country is a totalitarian state?

  • Gold teeth attributed to a Roosky torture chamber were traced to a dentist who had collected them over his multi-decade career. 54 The photo also featured a dildo that was pulled from…never mind.

  • Ukraine’s Post Office issued a postage stamp commemorating the bombing of the Kerch Bridge connecting to Crimea the day the bridge was bombed. 55 That stamp may become a valuable collectible. It was also Putin’s 70th birthday. 56 Somebody has a sense of humor.

  • While Zelensky and NATO blamed mass graves on torture, reporters noted that the graves were orderly and looked like the victims died from artillery wounds. 57

  • Western reports that the Rooskies were going to use a dirty bomb—a normal bomb impregnated with radioactive debris—never materialized and never made sense because a dirty bomb would offer no tactical gain.

  • Images of dead Ukrainians strewn alongside a road in Bucha lit up the international presses. The problem is that the Ukrainians “liberated” Bucha on March 31 and had it “fully under control” according to the mayor. The bodies, however, did not materialize until three days later. OK. Shit happens, but the Ukrainian National Police are tight with the ruthless Azov boys known for killing Ukrainians. 58 A former French special ops guy says it was Ukrainians, not Russians, doing the killing. 59

  • Odesa is a port city on the Black Sea of critical economic and military importance to both the Ukrainians and the Russians. The day after the Russians signed a grain export deal with Turkey, the port suffered an attack. U.S. officials blamed Russia for destroying a shipping port of great importance to Russia. Zelensky agreed with NATO because he won’t bite the hand that feeds him money and weapons. 60 The Russians and Turks countered that it was completely nuts to accuse Russia of attacking port critical to their needs. 61 Russia eventually admitted to hitting a “military target…Harpoon missiles,” claimed “nobody died,” and assured the world the grain deal was still on.62,63,64

  Some events need more than a bullet. When a Russian missile landing in a train station killed over 50 Ukrainians, I was reminded that if you wish to learn, post a tweet with an error or omission in it, 65 and sit back and watch:

  

  Within minutes military guys quickly noted it is a two-stage unguided “Tochka” missile, and I was seeing only the jettisoned stage. I learned that the Tochka missiles had been decommissioned by the Rooskies more than five years ago and only the Ukies were using them now, 66 which has been contested. 67,68 Apparently, it is trivial to calculate the origin of the Tochka missiles by knowing where the two stages landed and extrapolating backward, which pinpointed this missile’s source to the heart of Ukrainian-occupied territory. 69 The Rooskies came to the same conclusion, but, of course, that has been blocked by Western censors because hearing the other side of any story is counterproductive. 70 The recurring theme is that Ukrainians kill Ukrainians, especially when billions in aid are at stake.

  The media told us a gripping story as Ukrainian troops from the Azov Battalion were under siege in the Azovstahl steel mill in Mariupol. The Russian siege eventually flushed them out. 71 Of course, Putin’s demilitarization and de-Nazification plan made this group and Mariupol primary targets. The civilians were offered a free pass out multiple times and, when they finally got out, were surprised to find the rest of the city going about its business. The civilians were referred to by amnesty international as “human shields,” which is said to be a common practice of the Ukrainian troops. 72,73There were rumors of Western military officers captured too. 74 I would not underwrite the health or life insurance policies of the Azov captives on that bus to Siberia.

  

  Russia is the most likely suspect. 75

  ~ John Brennan, former CIA Director and the model of honesty, on the pipeline

  Jeff Sachs: The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline…I would bet was a U.S. action, perhaps U.S. and Poland. 76

  Tom Keene interrupting: Uh, Jeff, we’ve got to stop there.

  Pipelines, Bridges, and Other Infrastructure

  By now pretty much everybody knows that the Nord Stream II Pipeline providing natural gas to Europe, and the Kerch Bridge providing critical access to the Russian satellite Crimea, were blown up. I suspect that neither was as damaging as first thought. 1 The West’s immediate reaction was to blame Russia for blowing up its own infrastructure, which is absurd.2 Fact-checkers attacked “rumors circulating on online forums popular with American conservatives and followers of QAnon,” which is comically stupid. 3,4 Some say the Brits did it for us, but Navy activities in the area days before the explosion are suspicious. 5,6,7,8 The unfiltered Jeff Sachs noted, “We are seeing the behavior of a highly secretive part of our government. There is no doubt.” 9,10 Whether the strike was carried out by the US or one of our proxies—NATO bitches—is irrelevant. Joe Biden and neocon Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland made statements months earlier that were hard to walk back: 11

  If Russia invades…then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it. 12

  ~ Joe Biden

  If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.

  ~ Victoria Nuland, neocon

  MacGregor, 13 after noting the sophistication and tonnage of explosives required to damage the pipeline, asks rhetorically, “Would the Russians destroy their own pipeline? 40 percent of Russian gross domestic product generates foreign currencies that come into the country to purchase natural gas, oil, and coal…The notion that they did I think is absurd.” Well, Poland’s former Minister of Defense Sikorski seemed sure who did it:

  

  The Kremlin and Russian state media are aggressively pushing a baseless conspiracy theory blaming the United States for damage to natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in what analysts said Friday is another effort to split the U.S. and its European allies. 14

  ~ Associated Press, lying their asses off

  As to why we blew it up seems rather straightforward: “Berlin was drifting away from the alliance,” threatening to stop sending equipment to Ukraine, and preparing to cut a deal. 15 The Germans can now ponder their next move this winter while they shutter industries and freeze their asses off burning firewood 16 to heat their houses. Seems a shame they just shut down their nuke plants. I would be pissed off and self-loathing. The US should benefit from soaring natural gas prices while Germany complains about U.S. profiteering. 17 With three of the four pipelines delivering Russian natural gas to Europe out of commission, Hungary is now the only EU member state still receiving Russian gas. 18 By blowing up Nord Stream II, we have forced Germany to be a “vassal state” of the U.S.

  Over the long run you want to change the structure of your energy dependence. You want to depend more on the North American energy platform—the tremendous bounty of oil and gas that we are finding in North America. 19

  ~ Condoleezza Rice, 2014, to Germany

  The United States considers the most dangerous potential alliance to be between Russia and Germany.

  ~ George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, 2014

  Bioweapons Laboratories

  When the Soviet Union toppled, one of the nightmare scenarios was that their dilapidated bioweapons labs were in collapsing buildings, secured by rusty padlocks, and staffed by heroin addicts possibly looking to raise cash on the black market. This threat is nicely described in Richard Preston’s 2001 nail-biter, Demon in the Freezer. 1 Of course, the West had 30 years to decommission those labs in Ukraine, and you would not dawdle despite what CNN says. 2 Well, it appears that there are several dozen U.S.-sponsored bioweapons labs in Ukraine (and 336 worldwide). 3,4,5 Those who expressed concerns (like Tulsi Gabbard) got hammered for such hare-brained “Russian-backed conspiracy theories.” 6

  

  However, the Nunn-Lugar Agreement cleared these labs for use in 2005. 7 The Pentagon fessed up to there being 46 Ukrainian biolabs, 8,9 and the Rooskies have known about them for years. 10 We were scrambling to get the good stuff back to the U.S.—you know, the deadly shit like modified coronaviruses—before the war started. 11 Any thought that this is just wild-eyed conspiracy theory was snuffed when Victoria Nuland sheepishly and with cautious word choice admitted they exist: 12

  

  Uh, Ukraine has, uh, biological research facilities. We are now in fact quite concerned that Russian troops, Russian forces, may be seeking to, uh, gain control of [those labs], so we are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach.

  ~ Victoria “Oh Fuck!” Nuland, testifying to Congress

  Jeff Sachs, jumped into the fray again, this time asking the World Health Organization (WHO) to intervene. 13 Seems germane given that Sachs ran the commission that confirmed the Sars-Cov-2 virus came from such a lab and that the WHO was in full ass-covering mode. Both the Chinese 14 and the Russians 15 drew attention to U.S. bioweapons research leading to the covid pandemic including many of the authoritarian implications. 16 The BBC says that healthy newborns in Ukraine have been scooped up and become part of stem cell production facilities. I wonder who sponsored those? 17 All roads really do lead to Ukraine.

  

  We have approached a fateful moment in world history, not because of global warming, Covid, overpopulation, white racism, or any of the “crises” that an ignorant media hypes, but because we face nuclear war originating in the total stupidity of Western elites.

  ~ PC Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury

  The great powers have taken over and practically destroyed the UN order over the past several decades. I assume that we’re leaving the phase of the special military operation and approaching a major armed conflict, and now the question becomes where is the line, and whether after a certain time—maybe a month or two, even—we will enter a great world conflict not seen since the Second World War.

  ~ Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia

  Nuclear War?

  In the decades following the Cuban Missile Crisis, no sane person considered nuclear weapons to be tactically viable. All diplomatic channels were designed to avoid Armageddon. Apparently, there are now insane people in positions of power. It is crystal clear that Russian authorities, whether it be Putin, Lvarov, Medvedev, or the Minister of Whatever, are speaking with one voice that to a major degree is Putin’s:

  I’m Vladimir Putin, and I approve this message.

  NATO’s many disparate voices are problematic when it comes to delicate diplomacy. Let’s bullet a few (double entendre intended):

  • Polish officials claim that the Biden administration is open to letting Poland host U.S. nuclear weapons—”nuclear-sharing.” 1 Poland, as you might recall, is on Russia’s doorstep. 2,3 Poland’s European Parliament Deputy Radoslaw Sikorski emerged from his lair yet again, suggesting we give some nukes to Kyiv: “The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads so that it can protect its independence.” 4 My allergic reaction to Sikorski in the Munk debate against Mearsheimer just crystallized. The Russians noted that a nuclear conflict will destroy the European continent. 5

  • Republican Senator Roger Wicker said he wouldn’t even rule out a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia. 6 Who the fuck asked you?

  • Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s stated goal is to weaken Putin. 7

  I am here. Standing here. On the Northern flank. On the Eastern flank. Talking about what we have in terms of the eastern flank in our NATO allies and what is that state at this very moment. 8

  ~ Kamala Harris in Poland, preventing WWIII

  • In what may have been the scariest op-ed of the year, Uber-neocon John Bolton called for the assassination of Putin: “The whole regime must go.” 9

  • Biden said, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” 10 The Washington Post called it “the most defiant and aggressive speech about Russia by an American president since Ronald Reagan.” Bullshit: Reagan never called for regime change. Also, that was a nice try equating those two polar opposites.

  Globalists are marching us relentlessly toward this nuclear Armageddon. 11

  ~ Richard Black in an open letter to Congress

  • Lindsay Graham called for Putin’s countrymen to “take him out.” 12

  • Ukraine’s top military chief suggested, “There is a direct threat of the use, under certain circumstances, of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian armed forces. It is also impossible to completely rule out the possibility of the direct involvement of the world’s leading countries in a ‘limited’ nuclear conflict.” 13,14

  We United States aids Ukraine and her people so that we can fight Russia over there, and we don’t have to fight them over here. 15

  ~ Adam Schiff, 2020

  • New York City began playing duck-and-cover anti-nuke ads this year. 17 Those were insane 60 years ago.

  • The odd part is that the nuclear talks are largely stemming from NATO. Many have argued that Russia would not use nukes—they are not tactically sound—because they have better options. 18,19 Oddly, Mearsheimer is not in that camp. He thinks a nuke might be the proximate trigger that brings everybody to the negotiating table.

  The U.S. is hastening the Deployment of new nuclear weapons in Europe.

  ~ Politico Headline

  Hats off to French President Emmanual Macron for keeping his head while everybody else was losing theirs by refusing to call Russia’s actions genocide: “If Russia had that objective or was intentionally killing civilians, we’d see a lot more than less than 0.01 percent in places like Bucha.” U.S. intelligence concurred: “[Genocide] has so far not been corroborated by information collected by U.S. intelligence agencies.” 16

  Who is winning?

  Quite frankly, I have no idea who is winning this war. With the lack of critical analysis of Russian army movements, the confusion is profound. Undocumented NATO “advisors” doing “onsite weapons inspections” and possibly firing those weapons that are well beyond the skills of the Ukrainians” 1,2,3 appear to have caused serious damage. However, Ritter, MacGregor, 4 and ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern 5 claim that the Russian losses, while more than they expected at the outset because of the flood of NATO weapons, are grotesquely overstated by Zelensky and the western press. MacGregor estimates the Russian-to-Ukrainian kill ratios of 5–6:1 (October) and that as of early December Ukraine had lost an estimated 100,000 troops. 6 Rumors of Russians running out of tanks went silent as swaths of new tanks appeared. 7 Putin was said to be in huge political trouble or as strong as ever in Russia, depending on who you asked. The claim is that the Rooskies aren’t mudders, but once the ground freezes they will play like the Packers on Lambeau Field. After the bridge and pipeline attacks, Putin ratcheted up the offensive, and the real war appears to have arrived. He appears to be surgically destroying their infrastructure sufficiently to make this winter very unpleasant.

  It is of course in the nature of things that, apart from the relative strength of the two armies, a smaller force will be exhausted sooner than a larger one; it cannot run so long a course, and therefore the radius of its theater of operations is bound to be restricted.

  ~ Carl von Clausewitz’s, 19th century, describing gambler’s ruin applied to war

  The insanity of the statements coming out of the many mouths of NATO leaves me breathless. Putin may have misjudged Ukraine and Washington’s resistance to negotiate. The bellicosity of the self-appointed voices of NATO blowing hot air on the flames means the end of this war is not yet in sight. If you want Putin to say, “Fuck it: let’s tear up the joint” in a green-goblin strategy that is how I would do it. Sherman took the war to the people by marching on Atlanta. Putin may be following that script now. With negotiation down the drain, the prospects for a peace have become grim and could get worse.

  Interviewer: What are the realistic options now available?

  John Mearsheimer: There are no options. We’re screwed.

  How does it end?

  I could imagine it ending in a whimper like every big news story that becomes inconvenient. I am sure Kanye, Prince Harry, or Will Smith will provide critical cover. Somebody will use the N-word. One of the profound problems, however, is that we do not seem to have concrete plans or motivation to end this war. NATO is comprised of multiple countries. Their human weaponry includes legions of loose cannons loaded with double-digit IQs, all trying to get their 10 minutes of fame by supporting no-fly zones, sending in U.S. troops, delivering nukes to Ukraine, pre-emptively striking Russia, and whacking Putin.

  Even assuming Russia ignores the high noise levels, NATO exists to oppose Russia. Serious spokespersons have openly stated that their goal is to weaken or destroy Putin and Russia. This is an existential risk for Putin and Russia by definition. Russia must win and will fight to the death.

  We urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.

  ~ 30 Congressional Democrats in an open letter to Joe Biden

  Into this politically treacherous plot enters The Squad—the four newly minted Congressional nitwits—and 26 other DNC-spawned representatives with an open letter suggesting the most coherent idea to date: NATO and Russia should get to the negotiating table to end the war. 1 They got it dead right. Had something changed fundamentally? Nope. The letter was unvetted by the people that matter; within hours they were back peddling, 2 and within a day they withdrew the letter as some sort of clerical mistake. Apparently, House democrats and their friends in the Military-Industrial Complex were unready or unwilling to end this war. 3 It was a monumental fuckup both coming and going.

  The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine. The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting…As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this. Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over.

  ~ Progressive Democrats’ Retraction

  They couldn’t even hold out for *24 hours*. What a complete humiliation. Joe Crowley must be sitting in his lobbyist office cackling each time this happens.

  ~ Glenn Greenwald on the Democrats retracting their call for peace negotiations

  The one person who seems to have a limited say is Zelensky. The chaos preceding the war when the Ukrainians seemed confused by U.S./NATO rhetoric presumably occurred during a period in which Zelensky and Putin were having discussions. It is said that Putin and Zelensky were working out a deal in April when Boris Johnson showed up to let Zelensky know that no such deal would be tolerated. 4 NATO wanted its war, and no NATO puppet was gonna muck that up.

  Ukraine and Russia have largely resolved their differences, but the Biden admin is in the way.

  – William Arkin, Newsweek, April 2022

  

  Russia is open to negotiations over Ukraine, but any agreement with Kyiv would have little credibility because it could be rescinded by the West. This means that any possible settlement should be primarily discussed with the U.S.

  ~ Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday

  Zelensky’s claim that they would “fight to the last Ukrainian” was boilerplate rhetoric to generate Western support. However, Ukraine passed a referendum stating that they would not negotiate with Putin: “we [Ukraine] are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia.” 5 You never shut down communication channels. He was daring Vlad to kill every last Ukrainian. I’m not sure the Ukrainian soccer moms would sign off on that, but Vlad might.

  I would never want Ukraine to be a piece on the map, on the chessboard of big global players, so that someone could toss us around, use us as cover, as part of some bargain.

  Volodymyr Zelensky, too late

  The best thing we can do if we want the Russians to let us be Americans is to let the Russians be Russian.

  ~ George F. Kennan

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 22:00

• Google Execs Declare "Code Red" Over Revolutionary New Chat Bot
  Google Execs Declare “Code Red” Over Revolutionary New Chat Bot

  Three weeks ago and experimental chat bot called ChatGPT was unleashed on the world. When asked questions, it gives relevant, specific, simple answers – rather than spitting back a list of internet links. It can also generate ideas on its own – including business plans, Christmas gift suggestions, vacation ideas, and advice on how to tune neural network models using python scripts.

  

  Some even think it may supplant Google’s search business, the NY Times reports.

  Although ChatGPT still has plenty of room for improvement, its release led Google’s management to declare a “code red.” For Google, this was akin to pulling the fire alarm. Some fear the company may be approaching a moment that the biggest Silicon Valley outfits dread — the arrival of an enormous technological change that could upend the business.

  For more than 20 years, the Google search engine has served as the world’s primary gateway to the internet. But with a new kind of chat bot technology poised to reinvent or even replace traditional search engines, Google could face the first serious threat to its main search business. One Google executive described the efforts as make or break for Google’s future. -NYT

  ChatGPT was produced by a research lab known as OpenAI – which employs technology and knowledge that Google and many other companies have helped cultivate. In fact, the core technology behind ChatGPT was developed by researchers at Google.

  Now, experts think Google might struggle to compete with these smaller companies offering machine learning chat bots, as they may prove damaging to its business model.

  Google has its own chat bot – LaMDA, or Language Model for Dialogue Applications, which gained attention over the summer when former Google engineer, Blake Lemione, suggested that it was sentient. That said, the Silicon Valley giant may be reluctant to deploy the new tech as a replacement for its search service, because a chat bot AI may not be able to deliver digital ads as effectively – something which accounted for 80% of Google’s revenue last year.

  “No company is invincible; all are vulnerable,” said University of Washington professor, Margaret O’Mara, who specializes in the history of Silicon Valley. “For companies that have become extraordinarily successful doing one market-defining thing, it is hard to have a second act with something entirely different.”

  What’s more, AI chat bots may not be telling the entire truth – and can produce answers that blend fiction and fact due to the fact that they learn their skills by analyzing vast troves of data posted to the internet. If accuracy is lowered, it could turn people off to using Google to find answers.

  Or, more likely, an AI chat bot may give you the correct, perfect answer on the first try – which would give people fewer reasons to click around, including on advertising.

  “Google has a business model issue,” said former Google and Yahoo employee Amr Awadallah, who now runes start-up company Vectara, which is building similar technology. “If Google gives you the perfect answer to each query, you won’t click on any ads.“

  Sundar Pichai, Google’s chief executive, has been involved in a series of meetings to define Google’s A.I. strategy, and he has upended the work of numerous groups inside the company to respond to the threat that ChatGPT poses, according to a memo and audio recording obtained by The New York Times. Employees have also been tasked with building A.I. products that can create artwork and other images, like OpenAI’s DALL-E technology, which has been used by more than three million people.

  From now until a major conference expected to be hosted by Google in May, teams within Google’s research, Trust and Safety, and other departments have been reassigned to help develop and release new A.I. prototypes and products. -NYT

  According to industry experts, Google will eventually need to decide whether it will overhaul its search engine to incorporate (or evolve into) a chat bot as the face of its flagship service.

  “A cool demo of a conversational system that people can interact with over a few rounds, and it feels mind-blowing? That is a good step, but it is not the thing that will really transform society,” suggested Zoubin Ghahramani, who oversees the A.I. lab Google Brain, in a November interview with The Times. “It is not something that people can use reliably on a daily basis.”

  Yet.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 21:15

• Drowning In New Cases, China Finally Stops Releasing Daily Fabricated Covid "Data"
  Drowning In New Cases, China Finally Stops Releasing Daily Fabricated Covid “Data”

  And just like that,

  Nearly three full years after China first started reporting daily covid data which even the most naive claimed were fabricated, and just days after Beijing’s top health authority estimated that nearly 37 million Chinese were infected every single day last week as China finally gave up on its catastrophic zero-covid policy,  on Sunday China’s National Health Commission finally gave up rigging the data and announced it would stop publishing daily Covid-19 case numbers, after the accuracy of its data was questioned as millions were infected nationwide and the official tally remained strikingly low.

  The data had come into question after several Chinese cities reported daily infections that far surpassed the official tally, adding to doubt of the numbers provided by the NHC. And speaking of official numbers, the 25,000 or so daily cases are just a little below the 37 million new cases revealed recently, or 250 million in 3 weeks. And speaking of official data, it looks roughly as follows:

  

  The commission didn’t provide a reason for the change in policy in a statement on Sunday, but said that the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention will release Covid-related info for studies and reference.

  As reported previously, as many as a quarter billion people, or nearly 18% of the population, may have contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December, according to minutes from an internal meeting of China’s National Health Commission held on Wednesday. And while hospitals in major cities including Beijing and Shanghai have been overwhelmed, while some crematoriums are “struggling to cope”, this is all a perfectly normal transition, and a long overdue step toward herd immunity, something China should have done long ago.

  And since there aren’t literally piles of dead bodies strewn across China’s landscape, one can make their own conclusions about just how deadly and dangerous covid was, and how much propaganda went into the covid narrative over the past two years.

  In an illustration of just how fake China’s data has been all along, consider the following:

  • Zhejiang province, next to Shanghai, said it has more than 1 million daily Covid infections and expects the number to peak at 2 million, Zhejiang Daily reported Sunday, citing local officials as saying at a health briefing.
  • The city of Dongguan in the southern province of Guangdong said Friday that 250,000 to 300,000 people were being infected on a daily basis.
  • Qingdao city in the eastern province of Shandong is seeing 490,000 to 530,000 daily cases based on data projections, according to a local newspaper report.

  And yet, the official NHC tally for Dec. 23 was 4,103 cases.

  Of course, this is very similar to the sheer garbage reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics when it comes to the monthly jobs report, which keeps claiming that the US is generating hundreds of thousands of jobs even amid mass layoffs and a US consumer that has now imploded.

  As for China, the biggest trade-off of such a stark conclusion to “zero covid” is that while China faces an even more acute economic crunch in the coming weeks (see “China’s Economy Is Showing Increasing Strain From the Covid Tsunami“), it will then come out in mid/late-January with a clean economic slate and a naturally immune population that has nothing to fear as China’s economic rebound is unleashed on the world, sending a credit impulse shockwave around the globe.

  And to make sure it gets there faster, on Sunday China expanded the use of a homegrown Covid vaccine. A National Health Commission’s statement said that people who are three and above can receive a Covid vaccine developed by the Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products’ unit. Until now, it was approved only for adults. Those who are fully vaccinated with a Zhifei product can get one booster shot after six months, according to the statement. It’s unclear if Chinese “vaccines” have as many adverse and long-lasting side-effects as those developed by the likes of Pfizer and Moderna.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 20:34

• The War On Christmas Is A War On America
  The War On Christmas Is A War On America

  Authored by Don Feeder via WashingtonTimes.com,

  Whatever unites us, the left is against…

  

  The left hates Christmas because it hates all expressions of faith in our society. On a deeper level, however, the War on Christmas is a war on America.

  In many ways, Christmas is as much an American holiday as a Christian holiday. (No trees or tinsel in Bethlehem.) Today, only 63% of Americans call themselves Christians, while 93% celebrate Christmas. In other words, almost a third of those who celebrate Christmas are non-Christians.

  More than Thanksgiving, Memorial Day or the Fourth of July, Christmas unites us as a people.

  Anything that brings Americans together, the left fears — like the flag, the national anthem and statues of our heroes. 

  This is reflected in the push to get Christmas trees out of public parks and libraries (which have no problem celebrating Pride Month and having “drag queen story hour”) and the holy war against holiday decorations in schools and other public places. Sales staff risk life and limb by wishing customers a “merry Christmas.”

  The mainstream media tries to gaslight us by telling us the War on Christmas was invented by conservative groups to raise money and mobilize the base. 

  You really can’t make this stuff up.

  The King County, Washington, Human Rights Commission has banned Christmas and Hanukkah decorations from the workplaces of county employees — including virtual workplaces. Even holiday-themed clothing is verboten.

  “Some employees may not share your religion, practice any religion, or share your enthusiasm for holiday decorations,” a memo from the commission explains.

  This exquisite sensitivity applies only to religious holidays. Everyone must take part in Pride Month and do homage to Black Lives Matter.

  On the other side of the continent, the War on Christmas has taken a nasty turn.

  The Needham, Massachusetts, Public Library decided it would break 28 years of tradition by not displaying a Christmas tree this year, because unnamed people said that last year, the evergreen made them “feel uncomfortable.” What, they thought the Tannenbaum would assault them, or try to convert them to Christianity?

  After a public outcry, the library relented. The reversal, in turn, set off a member of the town’s Human Rights Commission (HRCs are general headquarters for secularist witch hunts), who went full Grinch, calling the lady who championed the tree’s return a “selfish f—-ing b——” and “disgusting trash” who had somehow endangered the lives of municipal workers because “that’s what your magic sky daddy wants.” The billet-doux closed with the author wishing “great suffering” on the tree’s proponents. She has since resigned from her position.

  If the right invented the War on Christmas, why are there so many enemies of Yuletide cheer, who range from the mildly obnoxious to the downright hysterical?

  In part, it’s a sense of entitlement. Liberals believe they have a right not to be confronted with signs of a holiday they don’t celebrate. But it goes far beyond that to a matter of national identity. 

  The left is for everything that divides us — multiculturalism, critical race theory, sexual indoctrination in the schools and unisex bathrooms — and against everything that unites us. Nothing brings Americans together like Christmas — and I say that as a non-Christian.

  For most Americans, Christmas brings back happy childhood memories — fluffy snowflakes, colored lights, tinsel, mounds of presents, festively decorated trees and stories about flying sleighs and a jolly old gent who resembles your favorite uncle.

  Christmas seems to be a uniquely American holiday — Irving Berlin’s “White Christmas,” “I’ll Be Home for Christmas,” “Miracle on 34th Street,” “Yes, Virginia, There Is a Santa Claus,” and memories of a time before homeless encampments, illegal aliens streaming across the border, fentanyl and men in ballgowns demanding their inalienable right to invade ladies’ shower and changing rooms. Christmas reminds us of a time when America was sane — the normalcy for which many long.

  “Merry Christmas” is an expression of goodwill and hope for the future. Optimism is another American virtue.

  The War on Christmas isn’t just another dimension of the culture war, but psych warfare against Americanism. The left isn’t just gunning for Christmas trees, glad tidings and a Jolly Old Elf with a sack full of presents, but the American ideal, which we must fight to preserve.

  Like Natalie Wood’s character in “Miracle on 34th Street,” we must believe and keep right on believing — that there’s a mystical connection between Christmas and America.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 20:10

• Los Angeles County Follows City, Extends COVID-Era Eviction Moratorium
  Los Angeles County Follows City, Extends COVID-Era Eviction Moratorium

  Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

  Los Angeles officials have extended COVID-era eviction moratoriums in the city and county until the end of January, continuing some of the nation’s longest-lasting policies that allow low-income residents to delay paying rent.

  

  Following the city’s footsteps, the county Board of Supervisors approved the extension Dec. 20. The board is also considering another six-month extension next year, citing fears of an “eviction tsunami” and increased homelessness.

  Extending the moratorium until the end of June would be “the right thing to do,” County Supervisor Hilda Solis said following the Dec. 20 board meeting.

  “It is unacceptable to let anyone fall into homelessness during a pandemic because they can’t afford to pay rent,” Solis wrote on Twitter. “We must do all we can to stabilize our families and prevent homelessness.”

  

  Los Angeles County supervisor Hilda Solis hosted a press conference Nov. 22 against hate crimes and in support of immigrant communities (Courtesy of Hilda Solis)

  One apartment owners’ group that sued over eviction restrictions last year expressed disappointment with the extensions.

  “After nearly three years of challenging rent collections and prohibitions on rent increases during an unprecedented inflationary period in our history, it is deplorable that Los Angeles County would seek to twist the knife blade even more into the hearts and souls of rental housing providers,” Daniel Yukelson, executive director of the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles, told The Epoch Times in an email.

  He said some renters have taken advantage of the moratoriums and restrictions by not paying rent and using the money to travel, buy new cars, and dine out whereas landlords “have suffered greatly under the financial strain.”

  In October, a district court judge blocked the county’s eviction moratorium, requiring officials to end or fix the policy to include language that makes clear renters can prove they have been impacted by COVID for each month they missed paying rent. The judge gave the county a deadline of Dec. 1.

  In the ruling, the judge agreed with the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles and the Apartment Owners Association of California, which claimed in a lawsuit that the moratorium was “unconstitutionally vague.”

  The policy was changed but the landlord groups don’t agree that the changes adequately or legally corrected the ordinance, according to Yukelson, and they plan to go back to court.

  “Our ruling will open the door for property owners harmed by the County’s unconstitutional ordinance to recover damages from the County under what could likely be class action litigation,” he added.

  The eviction moratorium went into effect in March 2020 and allows lower-income residents financially affected by COVID-19 to stop paying rent until the end of January. These residents can’t be evicted for nuisance violations or unauthorized occupants or pets and are exempt from no-fault evictions—which are normally allowed by law when landlords or their immediate family members need to move in.

  

  Renters and housing advocates attend a protest to cancel rent and avoid evictions in front of the courthouse amid the COVID-19 in Los Angeles on Aug. 21, 2020. (Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images)

  The moratorium doesn’t cancel the rental payment. Residents are still expected to replay the total amount owed. Landlords can pursue court action for unpaid rent, but many claim the moratorium has allowed some residents to stop paying rent for nearly three years.

  Los Angeles City Council voted Dec. 7 to end its eviction ban Jan. 31. Landlords can resume evicting tenants for not paying rent and other reasons starting Feb. 1.

  The city’s moratorium also prohibited—until February 2024—property owners from raising rents on the more than 650,000 rent-controlled units in the city.

  A report released Dec. 14 by the Economic Roundtable, a Los Angeles-based nonprofit research organization, claimed the eviction moratoriums helped slow the growth of homelessness by 43 percent in the county and 41 percent in California.

  Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority estimated this year nearly 70,000 remain homeless countywide and almost 42,000 citywide.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 19:45

• 1-In-6 Illinoisans Rely On Food-Stamps For Christmas Dinner
  1-In-6 Illinoisans Rely On Food-Stamps For Christmas Dinner

  Authored by Patrick Andriesen via IllinoisPolicy.org,

  Illinois has the 6th-highest number of residents buying their meals with nutrition benefits, and the number grew almost 11% from a year earlier.

  

  More than 2 million low-income Illinoisans will put holiday dinner on the table with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits this December, the sixth most per capita nationwide.

  The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports 15.9% of Illinoisans – or 1 in 6 – received food assistance in September 2022. The average recipient collected $245 a month.

  

  Data shows 10.7% more Illinois residents are receiving SNAP benefits than during September 2021. Federal food assistance participation increased just 2% nationwide during that time.

  While SNAP programs help thousands of Illinois families put food on table each year, rampant inflation and supply chain challenges mean benefits don’t stretch as far for program participants.

  A study by Datasembly found holiday dinner prices increased 16.4% from December 2021, raising the average cost for a family meal t0 $60.29. That’s roughly a quarter of program participants’ monthly food budget.

  Federal food assistance payments grew 12.5% to match food inflation for the 12 months ending October 2022 and will increase with inflation next October. While benefits have also been expanded under the federal Public Health Emergency, recipients will still bear the costs of any additional price increases tied to inflation between those adjustments.

  State lawmakers suspended the 1% tax on groceries until July 1, temporarily offering Illinoisans the same financial relief that residents in 13 other states receive year-round.

  Permanently suspending the grocery tax alongside introducing grocery tax credits would guarantee Illinoisans keep benefiting long after the holiday season ends.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 19:00

• San Francisco Businesses Demand Tax Refund Over Drugs, Crime, & Homelessness Crisis
  San Francisco Businesses Demand Tax Refund Over Drugs, Crime, & Homelessness Crisis

  Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

  Dozens of San Francisco business owners have formed a new association, demanding that the city government provide tax refunds because of out-of-control streets.

  The “Tenderloin Business Coalition,” which consists of 135 businesses and property owners in San Francisco’s Tenderloin district, has demanded tax refunds for 2022 after dealing with a wave of rampant crime, homelessness, and drug use that has financially hurt the neighborhood, The San Francisco Chronicle reported.

  An openly illicit drug trade has driven frightened customers from taxpaying neighborhood businesses, leaving the district located in the city’s downtown area on the verge of collapse, said the business association.

  This is not the first community association to demand action from city hall.

  

  Districts in San Francisco Demand Action Against Vagrant Behavior

  Back in August, businesses in the Castro district also threatened to withhold paying taxes if their demands for improved street conditions were not met.

  Castro district merchants had been complaining to city officials for years about mentally ill homeless people with drug addictions devastating their businesses.

  The Castro Merchants Association sent a letter to city hall on Aug. 8, urging officials to “take action,” as the area was “struggling.”

  They wrote that vagrants living on the streets “regularly experience psychotic episodes” and have vandalized storefronts and harassed business owners, employees, residents, and tourists.

  “If the city can’t provide the basic services for them to become a successful business, then what are we paying for?” Dave Karraker, the association’s co-leader, told The San Francisco Chronicle.

  Mayor London Breed pledged in September to send more police to the Castro district in response.

  Local Business Owners Fed Up With City Hall’s Weak Response

  Meanwhile, in a petition to Breed, the Tenderloin petition signers demanded “a full and complete refund of all sales tax and property taxes paid to the City of San Francisco in the fiscal year 2022” after city authorities allegedly abandoned their responsibility to protect its citizens, reported The San Francisco Chronicle.

  “The city has abandoned its commitment to provide a baseline of safety in the neighborhood, thus significant effort and investments made by the business owners and property owners to keep their blocks safe and clean have come to nothing. It is clear the state of the neighborhood is declining. We represent that this is a violation of the City’s implicit bargain with the taxpayer: pay your taxes and the city will ensure safe streets,” the business coalition wrote.

  “The neighborhood is not safe because the streets are controlled by drug dealers. Drug dealers operate in very clear and obvious ways to any rational observer. … They prey on residents, openly steal from Tenderloin businesses, they intimidate and extort passersby and all of this behavior goes unchecked by law enforcement,” the group explained.

  “Our customers are unwilling to enter the neighborhood to patronize our businesses,” the petition added.

  “The result is a catastrophic loss of revenue for the small businesses that are vital to the health and safety of the neighborhood. Due to this untenable situation, businesses are closing and there is a real and palpable fear that the neighborhood is now on the verge of collapse,” they warned.

  The Tenderloin Business Coalition has demanded an immediate crackdown on the drug dealers who have invaded the Tenderloin by applying “ongoing and rigorous law enforcement” and a meeting with Breed within the week to hear her “plan to take back the streets from the drug dealers and produce permanent results.”

  Mayor Promises to Address Homelessness and Drug Addict Crisis

  The mayor was forced to declare a state of emergency in 2021 over the rampant drug use in the Tenderloin.

  “Mayor Breed has been clear on our need to end open air drug dealing in the Tenderloin,” the mayor’s office told NBC Bay Area.

  “The mayor knows this is challenging work, and she is partnering with the district attorney, who is focused on bringing prosecutions and supporting the police department to make the arrests.”

  The mayor has promised to alleviate San Francisco’s overwhelmed 911 call system regarding low-level homeless incidents by deploying community workers, instead of the police, to handle the response.

  Breed said that the city is also hamstrung by legal limitations that prevent mentally disturbed people from being put under court-ordered treatment.

  She said that the city will utilize a newly created state program called “Care Court,” which would force them to get help along with the backing of the local counties, starting in 2023.

  Tenderloin business owner Chai Saechao told NBC Bay Area that he was looking forward to celebrating the five-year anniversary of his store, “Plant Therapy,” next year.

  However, he said that it was harder to stay in business in the district, making him worried.

  “A lot of businesses have closed down and you know, the best restaurants have closed down. So, it’s very sad to see,” Saechao said.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 18:15

• Bank of America's Guide How To Talk To Your Family About The Economy Over The Holidays
  Bank of America’s Guide How To Talk To Your Family About The Economy Over The Holidays

  By Bank of America chief global economist, Aditya Bhave

  We’ve all been there. You work in finance, so inevitably someone will approach you at a holiday gathering and ask you about the economy. But we’ve got your back. In this report, we list 10 questions you might get asked. For each question, we suggest both a short response – in case dessert is served or you just don’t want to talk shop – and a more detailed response – if you really want to engage in the conversation. As a disclaimer, these are the views of BofA Global Research’s US Economics team. Others might answer these questions differently, but that would only liven up the discussion!

  1. “Are we in a recession? Didn’t we have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth this year?”

  Short answer: Not yet.

  Longer answer: We had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1Q and 2Q 2022. This amounts to what’s known as a “technical recession”. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the “official” call on whether we are in a recession. The NBER looks at several economic indicators, not just GDP. A few of those indicators are related to the labor market (job creation and wage growth), so it’s unlikely that we will enter an NBER-defined recession until the labor market cracks. At the moment the labor market is still very hot, due to both strong demand for workers and labor supply shortages.

  Technical recessions typically overlap with NBER-defined recessions. This time is different because GDP has been distorted by large swings in the trade and inventory data. Once we exclude these components, we see that final domestic demand (i.e., consumer spending, residential and business investment, and government spending), is weak, but is still growing (Exhibit 1).

  

  * * *

  2. “So when will the next recession start?”

  Short answer: Probably next year.

  Longer answer: The tipping point for a recession should be when the labor market slows materially. Consumer spending has been relatively resilient so far. If the labor market breaks, not only will the NBER’s recession criteria likely get triggered, but consumer spending will also probably weaken significantly. Since the consumer is nearly 70% of the economy, that would drive domestic demand lower. We will probably go into a mild recession next year.

  The labor market is likely to weaken next year for a few reasons. First, hiring has outpaced GDP growth by a long way this year. Payrolls have grown by over 2.5%, while real GDP growth has been less than 1%. This is not sustainable. Second, higher rates (due to Fed hikes) are hurting business and residential investment. The housing market is already in a recession and the manufacturing sector appears to be following suit. This should eventually translate into job losses. Third, the Fed hiked rates by 425bp this year and Fed hikes affect the economy with “long and variable lags”. So a lot of the economic and labor market damage from this year’s Fed tightening probably hasn’t happened yet.

  

  * * *

  3. “This feels like the most widely anticipated recession that I can remember. Is there a chance that we could talk ourselves into a recession?”

  Short answer: Yes and no.

  Longer answer: There is some truth to the idea that recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies. If businesses expect weaker consumer demand, they might stop investing and start laying off workers. Similarly, consumers might pull back on spending if they are concerned about an economic slowdown. Such precautionary behavior would likely create the recession that everyone was worried about.

  But it isn’t as simple as that. Painful recessions are generally due to the build-up of excesses in the economy. If consumers and businesses start to become cautious before such excesses build, that could limit the scope of any potential downturn. The three sectors in the economy in which these excesses usually build are consumer durables, residential investment and business investment. Currently there only modest signs of excess in these sectors (Exhibit 2). Yet banks have already started to become less willing to lend to consumers (Exhibit 3). So perhaps the recession has been so well telegraphed that it turns out to be self-inhibiting rather than self-fulfilling.

  * * *

  4. “You said the housing market is in a recession. Are we headed for a housing crisis?”

  Short answer: Probably not.

  Longer answer: Housing is arguably the most rates-sensitive sector of the economy. Therefore it is no surprise that very aggressive Fed hikes have pushed the housing market into recession (Exhibit 4). After all, the 30-year mortgage rate increased from around 3% at the start of last year to more than 7% briefly, and is still well north of 6%. Tight supply – of construction labor, materials, etc. – has further hindered housing activity, although it has helped support prices (Exhibit 5).

  However, this doesn’t mean we are headed for a crisis. Slowdowns in specific sectors turn into economy-wide crises when there are conditions in place that amplify their impact. In the run-up to the financial crisis, speculation (rather than fundamentals) played a big role in the demand for housing, adjustable-rate mortgages were more common, lending standards were loose and households were levering up their home equity using home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

  In the post-pandemic housing boom, demand was driven by a big generation of millennials moving into larger spaces, a very large majority of mortgages were locked in at fixed rates (so people who already have mortgages will generally not be hurt by Fed hikes), lending standards were relatively tight and there was limited use of HELOCs. Moreover, regulators are much more vigilant about the risks of a housing crisis. At the start of the pandemic there was significant forbearance for borrowers. This is likely to repeat if there is growing risk of a crisis, in order to prevent fire sales. All of this suggests that another housing crisis is unlikely.

  

  5. “You don’t sound overly concerned about the economy. Is there a chance we’ll avoid a recession entirely next year?”

  Short answer: There’s always a chance, but we’re likely to have at least a mild recession.

  Longer answer: We won’t get a recession until the labor market weakens materially. Job growth has been resilient of late. We probably added around 4mn jobs in 2022, and over 800k in the last three months. To put that in context, we need to create just 50-100k jobs per month to match the growth rate of the population. This means it’s quite possible that the economy could avoid a recession in the first half of 2023.

  However, it will be harder to avoid a recession for the full year. Here’s the issue. As long as the labor market remains hot, there is a risk that job growth and higher wages will create more inflation down the line. So the Fed would likely respond by raising rates even higher, which would inflict even more pain on the economy later next year. In other words, a delayed recession might mean a deeper one. We need to be careful what we wish for.

  * * *

  6. “You make it sound like the Fed is determined to break the labor market. What’s so special about 2% inflation anyway? Wouldn’t it be better to accept higher inflation than cause a recession?”

  Short answer: There is nothing special about 2%. But abandoning the target now would put the Fed on a slippery slope. Unfortunately, the only way to get and keep inflation under control is to materially weaken the labor market.

  Longer answer: In general, low but positive inflation is considered best for economic growth. Why? On the one hand, outright deflation causes consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of lower prices. As we have seen in Japan, this damages growth prospects. On the other hand, high single-digit or double-digit inflation is problematic because it tends to also be more volatile, creating uncertainty, which in turn slows spending and investment. Central banks across developed markets settled on 2% because it is a low rate of inflation that still gives them a sizeable buffer from deflation.

  This is the first time the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation has been seriously tested in about four decades. If the Fed were to change its inflation target to say 4%, it would be on a slippery slope (Global Economic Weekly: What is so special about 2%?). If 4% is acceptable, why not 6% or 8%? So the target would lose credibility in the eyes of investors. But it’s possible that if inflation gets stuck a little bit above target (say 3%), the Fed would accept a longer time frame to get back to 2% instead of inflicting a lot of economic pain to get there sooner.

  The Fed generally looks at core inflation, i.e. inflation ex of food and energy, because food and energy prices tend to be more volatile and driven by factors outside the Fed’s control (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict). In a recent speech, Fed Chair Powell noted that services besides housing make up more than half of the core consumer spending basket (Exhibit 6). These services are labor-intensive and are seeing rapid job and wage growth as consumers return to pre-pandemic spending habits. Higher labor costs are pushing up prices (Exhibit 7). Therefore the only way for the Fed to bring core inflation back to 2% in a manner that is sustainable over time is to weaken the labor market.

  

  * * *

  7. “But inflation is already getting better, right?”

  Short answer: Yes, but it might not last.

  Longer answer: Goods prices spiked in the spring of 2021 because of supply-chain disruptions and huge demand for stay-at-home goods from US consumers who were awash with cash. At the time, the ARPA (American Rescue Plan Act) had just been implemented. It was the last of three big stimulus packages, the others being the CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act and the CAA (Consolidated Appropriations Act) of 2020. Now supply issues have largely been sorted out and goods demand is slowing. So goods prices have started to fall. That’s helping to slow overall inflation, but the faster goods prices correct, the sooner they will stop correcting.

  The US economy is predominantly a services economy. And as we discussed earlier, the only way to bring services inflation under control is to slow the labor market down. Unless that happens, the risk is that overall inflation will pick up again once goods prices stop falling.

  * * *

  8. “How are US consumers dealing with higher inflation, particularly in necessities such as food and energy?”

  Short answer: Inflation is painful, but a strong labor market and pandemic-era stimulus have helped the consumer to remain resilient.

  Longer answer: For the US consumer, there is an ongoing tug-of-war between inflation and labor market gains. Food and energy inflation has been particularly challenging for lower-income households, who spend a larger share of their income on necessities. But they are also experiencing strong job growth and the fastest wage inflation in the economy (Exhibit 8). This is offsetting some of the pain from inflation and allowing consumer spending to remain relatively resilient.

  The US consumer is also still being propped up by excess savings from the pandemic-era fiscal stimulus packages. Consumers still probably have more than $1 trillion in excess savings, which they are drawing down at a rate of about $100bn per month, partially in response to the inflation shock (Exhibit 9). So these savings could be a tailwind to consumer spending for a few more quarters.

  

  * * *

  9. “I read that US consumers have racked up nearly $1trillion in credit card debt. How concerning is this?”

  Short answer: It isn’t very concerning yet.

  Longer answer: Credit card debt has increased from less than $800bn at the start of last year to $925bn as of 3Q 2022. This is a sharp increase that certainly bears watching. It is probably being driven by both liquidity constraints for consumers and increasing interest rates. The level of credit card debt is close to the all-time high, reached just before the pandemic.

  

  But it is important to remember that what matters with debt is consumers’ capacity to service it. Income has also been growing rapidly, and that helps a lot. Credit card debt was less than 5% of disposable income in 3Q 2022 (Exhibit 10). This is lower than at any time before the pandemic (the data go back to 1999). The trend is similar with credit card delinquencies: they are on the rise, but they are still below pre-pandemic levels.

  * * *

  10. “Are consumers spending as generously over the holidays as they did last year? Also, could you please pass the cranberry sauce?”

  [First pass the cranberry sauce]

  Short answer: No, but that isn’t a big surprise.

  Longer answer: The holiday shopping season is obviously very important for the US consumer. Last year’s shopping season was historic, so it isn’t a huge surprise that we’re tracking weaker spending on holiday goods this year (Exhibit 11). Another factor weighing on the dollar value of holiday spending this year is that discounts have potentially been deeper and more back-loaded than last year. So we really need to adjust for inflation/deflation and wait until the end of the holiday season to get a full picture of holiday spending.

  Finally, consumers are rotating back to services from goods as the impact of the pandemic fades (Exhibit 12). Last year, consumption of services during the holidays was disrupted by the omicron variant outbreak. People responded by spending more on holiday presents. This year, they are probably traveling more, dining out more and attending shows, concerts, sports events, etc.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 17:30

• Three Busloads Of Migrants Dropped Off At VP Harris' Home On Christmas Eve
  Three Busloads Of Migrants Dropped Off At VP Harris’ Home On Christmas Eve

  Three buses full of recently apprehended illegal immigrants were dropped off near the home of Vice President Kamala Harris on Christmas eve.

  

  While Texas authorities have not confirmed whether they’re behind it, the dropoffs “are in line with previous actions by border-state governors calling attention to the Biden administration’s immigration policies,” AP reports.

  The buses that arrived late Saturday outside the vice president’s residence were carrying around 110 to 130 people, according to Tatiana Laborde, managing director of SAMU First Response, a relief agency working with the city of Washington to serve thousands of migrants who have been dropped off in recent months.

  Local organizers had expected the buses to arrive Sunday but found out Saturday that the group would get to Washington early, Laborde said. The people on board included young children. -AP

  The poorly timed dropoff came as temperatures in DC hovered around 15-degrees Farenheit (-9 Celsius) – the coldest Christmas Eve in Washington, according to the Washington Post.

  

  According to Laborde, SAMU First Response provided blankets and quickly shuttled the migrants onto new buses to an area church, while a local restaurant donated dinner and breakfast.

  

  Most of the migrants were headed to other destinations, with the DC stop expected to be temporary.

  Last week, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s office said they had relocated more than 15,000 migrants to liberal ‘sanctuary cities’ since April – including Washington, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia.

  

  Harris, President Biden’s border czar, has overseen the relaxing of restrictions on migrants that have caused a flood of Central Americans to leave their countries of origin and head north.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 16:45

• My Christmas Gift To Greta
  My Christmas Gift To Greta

  Authored by Ray Jason via The Burning Platform blog,

  Greta,

  You don’t know me, but we share something in common that is very special. That something is enormous and powerful and beautiful and elemental. That something is Mother Ocean.

  I too have spent long periods of time at sea. My longest ocean passage was 30 days, sailing my little 30 foot boat from Hawaii to San Francisco. In my case, I was also doing this alone.

  So you have experienced something of extraordinary magnificence. You have glided – or on difficult days – pounded – across the Wide Waters. Very few people have ever done this. To be hundreds of miles from the nearest humans, in the gigantic vastness of the Sea, can teach a person just how tiny we are compared to the mighty eco-systems of our watery planet. And looking up at the immense dome of stars, with the clarity of deep-ocean darkness, reinforces that lesson in humility even more.

  This stark difference between the so-called Real World and weeks spent on the rolling waves, always inspires me to examine Life more deeply and independently. Being separated from normal, everyday living, allows one to question the accepted and conventional worldviews.

  And so I wonder if sometimes when you were alone on a night watch, did you ever try to step away from the whirlwind that has been your recent life, and examine whether those who have guided your meteoric rise have been truly honest with you – and helpful to you. Did you ever question whether your advisers were as benevolent and noble as they claimed? Did you ever fear that perhaps you were being controlled like a human marionette?

  The reason I do not feel guilty asking such questions, is because I too was once a fervent believer in human-driven Climate Change. But the further that I advance into the Autumn of my Life, the more I embrace The Need for Truth. And to achieve that, I find it wise to question everything.

  So I took a deep and close look at the supposedly “settled science.” Amazingly, I discovered that the “97% consensus” was just statistical trickery, and that there are many scientists who question the accepted truths of NOAA and the IPCC and NASA, etc. And they do this despite enormous efforts to silence their voices, and to heap scorn upon them for questioning the prevailing dogma.

  Therefore, because I believe that your concern and alarm for our planetary future is sincere and well-intended, I offer you a Christmas gift. My present for you is Scientific Optimism.

  There are many, many researchers who demonstrate with considerable evidence that Planet Earth has gone through cataclysmic events far worse than the ones we fear today. These previous catastrophes were not caused by human activities. Mother Earth weathered those crises, and emerged as the only lush and life-rich planet among those zillions of stars that you saw so clearly when you were out on the Atlantic Ocean.

  Greta, in order to demonstrate that there truly is justification for Scientific Optimism, I will briefly discuss two of the most frequently discussed phenomena which supposedly prove that Climate Change poses an existential threat to life on Earth. And I will show you evidence that you have probably never been exposed to, that, hopefully, will diminish your grave concerns.

  The two that I have selected are the Melting Arctic and the Disappearing Polar Bears. These two were chosen because I have direct experience in these areas.

  THE ICE-FREE ARCTIC

  In 2017, some dear friends offered me the wonderful opportunity to attempt a sailboat voyage across the fabled Northwest Passage through the Arctic from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Because of my love of adventure and of dangerous, faraway places, I accepted immediately.

  Our fiberglass sailboat spent months in the Arctic attempting to make it across. I can assure you that it was not ice-free. Far from it, we struggled through frightening conditions in which we had to ponder turning back.

  Here is a photo that is typical of the seemingly impenetrable ice that we had to find a path through.

  

  But we persevered and made it. We were the 256th boat to make it through in the 111 years since the first successful passage. Prior to that superb human achievement, there were hundreds of years of failures and hundreds of lives lost.

  Before embarking on this quest, I did considerable research. Some people argued that this undertaking was no longer praiseworthy, since the ice in the far north had supposedly melted. But when I carefully investigated this, I discovered a lot of fiction where there should have been facts. Yes, there had been many authorities predicting that the Arctic Ice Cap would soon melt, but inconveniently, it had refused to do so.

  NASA claimed it would be gone in 2012. The Naval Research Lab guessed 2013. Al Gore placed his bet on 2014. And James Hansen hedged his wager by suggesting sometime between 2013 and 2018. They were all wrong! But the mainstream media never mentions these failures. Yet, they will undoubtedly trumpet the next ice-free prediction, which will probably be as incorrect as all of the previous guesses.

  Here is another deliberate deception about the Arctic that has been foisted on the world. In order to “prove” that the Arctic is rapidly disappearing, the Climate Change defenders picked 1978 as the start date for their tracking of Arctic ice extent.

  Since there has been data on the amount of ice for about 100 years, it seems odd that they would select that particular year. It seems a whole lot less odd when you learn that 1978 had the highest ice total in about 100 years. Therefore, by starting at that point the data will be distorted in favor of a rapid decline in Arctic ice. In other words, there has been a campaign of deliberate deceit.

  POLAR BEAR EXTINCTION CLAIMS

  The “Death of the Polar Bears” is a fraud on so many levels, that it is difficult to know where to begin.

  They are portrayed as cold weather versions of Panda bears. Pandas are large and slow and adorable. They are also vegetarian and mostly eat bamboo.

  Polar bears eat meat and they are one of the most ruthless alpha predators on the planet. They are most definitely not cute and cuddly. They can attack from land or sea and they are strong and fast in both elements. We never went ashore without a loaded high-power rifle. To a polar bear, we were not ecologists there to protect them, we were meat.

  So let’s take a truthful look at how these powerful carnivores are doing. In about 1960 there were only about 6,000 Polar bears left in the Arctic Basin. But they were not in decline because of Climate Change, their numbers were dropping because they were being hunted to extinction.

  Rich trophy hunters could fly to remote locations and hire a guide to help them shoot one of these magnificent creatures. They would then end up as rug or a snarling head on a wall. This was clearly despicable and needed to end.

  Fortunately, in 1973, all of the nations in that part of the world signed a treaty banning that horrific practice. So today, the leading experts estimate that the population has now reached about 25,000 Polar bears.

  The main reason that they still remain on the Endangered Species list of some countries, is not scientific; it is political – they are the poster child for Climate Change.

  Here is a photo that I took in the Northwest Passage of a mom and her cub.

  

  They are magnificent creatures – at a distance. I am delighted that they are not declining – they are flourishing.

  BUT WHY?

  Hopefully, this fresh perspective on the issues of the Melting Arctic and the Disappearing Polar Bears, will convince you to seek out evidence that has been hidden from you. Surely, you might wonder why your friends and advisers would lie to you. I believe that there are two main reasons.

  1) The true goal of the Climate Change juggernaut is NOT to save the planet. It is to restructure society and re-distribute global wealth.

  This quote from Christiana Figures, a recent U.N. Climate Chief, clearly states the actual agenda:

  “It must be understood that what is occurring here in the whole climate change process is the complete transformation of the economic structure of the world.”

  And Ottmar Edenhoffer, who was the lead author on the IPCC Fourth Assessment, echoes Christiana’s position with this statement:

  “One must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore.”

  Furthermore, AOC’s Green New Deal is also not primarily about the environment. Here is a recent quote from her Chief of Staff, Saikat Chakrabarti:

  “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal, is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all. Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy-thing.”

  2) The second reason that so many people have been deceiving you, Greta, is because the rewards of supporting the Climate Change orthodox position are enormous. On the other hand, when you oppose that agenda, you are burned at the cyber-stake.

  All of the perks flow in one direction. Those who buy into the “impending doom scenario” get published in prestigious journals, appear on television, get invited to conferences, receive research grant money, etc.

  But those who question the supposed settled science, are cast out of polite society and scorned as vile “deniers.” Is it any wonder that your advisers have steered you in the direction that they have?

  A GLIMMER OF HOPE

  Greta, it is likely that you will never see this letter. And even if you do, I suspect that it will have very little influence upon you. But if I could make only one, small, heartfelt request of you, it would be this.

  There are now millions of youngsters all around the world who are severely traumatized with fears for their future. Please toss them a little bouquet of Hope.

  Perhaps suggest that our wonderful planet is enormously complex, and we certainly do not totally understand how her many systems of land, water, and atmosphere behave. And therefore, we can conclude that maybe … just maybe … the situation is not nearly as dire as we have been told.

  Merry Christmas, young lady, from an old sea gypsy.

  Captain Ray Jason in the Northwest Passage 2017

  

  *  *  *

  For more of Ray’s work, please visit The Sea Gypsy Philosopher.  And Merry Christmas everyone.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 16:00

• Putin 100% Sure US-Supplied Patriot Systems Will Be Destroyed In Ukraine
  Putin 100% Sure US-Supplied Patriot Systems Will Be Destroyed In Ukraine

  In Sunday statements Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to destroy the Patriot anti-air missile systems that the Biden White House pledged to supply Ukraine days ago.

  He said that he’s 100% certain that Russian forces will eradicate them when they appear inside Ukraine. “Of course, we’ll take them out, 100%!” he emphasized in an interview with Rossiya-1 television on Sunday.

  

  But he also noted that so far these systems are not in the hands of the Ukrainians. It could take months or even a year for the Patriots to actually become operational in Ukraine, given how complex they are and how many crew-members are needed to operate them.

  There are roughly 90 soldiers in a Patriot battery, with each crewmember having to undergo extensive training. The Pentagon has indicated that Ukrainians could be trained out of a base in Germany, or there are reports even suggesting this could take place inside the United States.

  Each missile fired from the Patriot system costs about $4 million, ranking it among the single-most expensive weapons provided to Ukraine thus far throughout the war.

  However, Putin days ago dismissed its significance as a potential battlefield game-changer, saying “the Patriot is a fairly outdated system” and that an “antidote” to this weapon will be found.

  Patriots have long been deployed in neighboring Poland, but Ukrainian leaders have been persistent in requesting them on their own soil amid a major uptick in recent Russian aerial attacks. 

  “The Patriot is quite an outdated system, it doesn’t work as well as our S-300 (surface-to-air) missiles,” Putin told journalists. “Let them supply them – we’ll crack them as well.” pic.twitter.com/3Oh6khzYMl

  — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 23, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The systems will mark the longest-range missiles sent to Ukraine thus far, and for this reason Washington was earlier reluctant, on fears that the precedent of longer-range and more advanced munitions only increases the chance of direct escalation between the US and Russia.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 15:15

• What To Tell Your Family At The Xmas Dinner Table About What Happened In Crypto This Year
  What To Tell Your Family At The Xmas Dinner Table About What Happened In Crypto This Year

  Authored by Prashant Jha via CoinTelegraph.com,

  Christmas dinner could get awkward for crypto advocates who were adamant about their families investing last year…here’s a small recap of what happened in crypto this year.

  

  After a lackluster rise of crypto in 2021, which saw many new crypto millionaires and several crypto startups attain unicorn status, came the dramatic fall in 2022. The industry was plagued by macroeconomic pressures, scandals and meltdowns that wiped out fortunes virtually overnight. 

  As 2022 comes to a close, many crypto proponents are perplexed about the state of the industry, especially in light of the recent FTX collapse and the contagion it has caused, taking down several firms associated with it.

  Many who couldn’t stop talking about crypto and recommending their family to invest in it last year at Christmas dinner could see the tables turn this year, with them having a lot of explaining to do about the state of crypto today. While as awkward as that conversation is going to be, Cointelegraph prepared a small recap to help ‘crypto bros and sisters’ explain what really happened to crypto in 2022 when market pundits were expecting the rise to continue throughout the year.

  The downfall was universal, but crypto turned it into a contagion

  The start of the crypto downfall was triggered by external factors, including growing inflation, rate hikes from the United States Federal Reserve and the international conflict between Ukraine and Russia that shook investor confidence in the market, leading to a sell-off in traditional and crypto markets.

  The external market conditions, aided by the unchecked centralized decision-making process, claimed its first big player of this bull cycle in Terra. The $40-billion ecosystem was reduced to ruins within days. More importantly, it created a crypto contagion that claimed at least half a dozen other crypto players, mainly crypto lenders that had exposure to the Terra ecosystem.

  The collapse of the Terra ecosystem had the greatest impact on lenders, bankrupting Three Arrows Capital and many others. Celsius paused withdrawals due to extreme market conditions, causing crypto prices to fall, and then declared bankruptcy. BlockFi had to be bailed out by FTX with a $400 million cash injection.

  

  At the time, FTX seemed too eager to bail out several troubled crypto lenders. But, just a quarter later, it turned out FTX was not as liquid and cash-rich as it claimed to be. In fact, the crypto exchange was using its native tokens and in-house, non-existent projects as leverage against multi-billion-dollar valuations and loans. Its sister company, Alameda Research, was found to be involved in building a house of cards that eventually came crashing down in November.

  The FTX crypto exchange and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, have built a philanthropic outlook for the world, turned out to be outright fraud and stole customers’ funds. The former CEO was found to be misappropriating customers’ funds and was eventually arrested in the Bahamas on Dec. 11.

  Bankman-Fried was extradited to the United States on charges of securities fraud and misappropriation of funds. However, the former CEO managed to secure a bail plea against a $250 million bond paid by his parents who put up their house to cover his astronomical bail bond.

  While the arrest of Bankman-Fried and his trial in the U.S. have given some hope to FTX users, the chances of many customers getting back their funds are very slim as lawyers have predicted that it might take years and even decades to get the funds back.

  

  SBF in handcuffs during his extradition to the U.S. Photo: Royal Bahamas Police

  Two back-to-back crypto contagions caused by a series of bad decision-making and the greed of a few, might not be an easy thing to explain to the family. So, own up — everyone makes mistakes in the bull market, thinking they are doing the right thing by getting their family involved. However, one can always talk about the bright sides and the lessons learned from the mistakes, and the 2022 crypto contagion is no different.

  Centralized exchanges and coins may come and go, but Bitcoin will stay

  Terra ecosystem’s collapse was a significant setback for the crypto industry —both in terms of value and how the outside world perceives it. Crypto managed to bear the brunt of the collapse and was on its way to redemption, only to face another knock in the form of FTX. The FTX saga is far from over but it highlighted what corruption and hefty donations can do to your public image even when you have robbed people billions of their money.

  The mainstream media frenzy saw the likes of the New York Times and Forbes write puff pieces for the criminal former CEO before the charges were framed against him. Bankman Fried was portrayed as someone who was a victim of bad decisions when FTX and Alameda were involved in illicit trading from day one, as mentioned by SEC in their charges.

  The FTX downfall and the crypto contagion are being portrayed by many as the end of trust in the crypto ecosystem. U.S. regulators are warning that it is only the start of the crypto crackdown, with SEC chief Gary Gensler comparing crypto platforms and intermediaries to casinos.

  However, any crypto veteran will tell you that the industry has seen much worse and has always bounced back to its feet. While the collapse of the third largest crypto exchange (FTX) is definitely significant, it doesn’t come close to the Mt. Gox hack from the early days of crypto exchanges.

  Mt. Gox was once the biggest external factor that cast doubt on the cryptocurrency industry, especially Bitcoin. When the exchange was hacked in 2014, it account for more than 70% of BTC transactions at the time. The hack did have a wild impact on the price of BTC at the time, but the market shot back up again in the next cycle.

  

  Click “Collect” below the illustration at the top of the page or follow this link.

  Years later, the FTX collapse once again reminded users of the risks involved with centralized entities, triggering a significant movement of funds from centralized exchanges to self-custody wallets.” Self-custody wallets allow users to serve as their own bank, but the trade-off is that wallet security also becomes their sole responsibility.

  Crypto users are withdrawing their funds from crypto exchanges at a rate not seen since April 2021, with nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges in November, moving them to self-custody wallets.

  New data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the number of wallets receiving BTC from exchange addresses hit almost 90,000 on Nov. 9. The movement of funds away from exchanges are usually a bullish sign that BTC is being “hodled” for the long term.

  Every other token might look lucrative in a bull run, as evident from the last one where the likes of LUNA, Shiba Inu and Dogecoin broke into the top 10. But today, these projects be it Terra-LUNA or meme coins are either obsolete or far from their bull run hype.

  

  Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, has seen downfalls of several major exchanges over the past decade and yet has come up on top of each of those collapses in the next cycle. This is the reason most early crypto investors and Bitcoin proponents often advocate for self-custody and hodling BTC over investing in new altcoins that might seem lucrative in a bull run, but there is no guarantee that they would make it to the next bull run

  The collapse of these centralized entities in 2022 could also prompt policymakers to eventually come up with some form of official universal regulations to ensure investor security.

  The bottom line

  The core technology of decentralization and Bitcoin, the OG cryptocurrency, is here to stay regardless of the crypto entities involved in facilitating different use cases and services on top of them. 2023 could see a new wave of crypto reforms, with more aware users who believe in self-custody rather than letting their funds sit on exchanges. Also, it’s better not to give out financial advice to anyone, especially in a bull market.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 14:30

• The Soaring Cost Of Christmas Dinner
  The Soaring Cost Of Christmas Dinner

  The average cost of a Christmas dinner for four has risen to £31 in the UK, according to data published by Kantar. This is a more than 9 percent increase from 2021, as inflation and the cost-of-living crisis continues to hit consumers.

  

  As Statista;s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, parsnips saw the biggest percentage change of the selected Christmas dinner items, rising some 30 percent year-on-year. Potatoes also saw significant hikes, rising some 20 percent, while a frozen turkey will set buyers back an additional 15 percent this season.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  According to Kantar, the combination of inflation and festive spending means this December is set to be the biggest ever for take-home grocery sales, with Friday 23 predicted to be the busiest day for pre-Christmas shopping.

  As buyers try to offset rising costs, more people are opting for own label commodities, which are now up 11.7 percent since the year before. The cheapest value own label lines have skyrocketed 46.3 percent, while premium own label sales increased by 6.1 percent, hitting £461 million as of November, as some shoppers managed to find some space to treat themselves.

  It is worth noting here that the rate of grocery price inflation actually saw a drop for the first time in nearly two years when Kantar’s data was published, with four-week inflation in the run up to November 27 falling 0.1 percentage points to 14.6 percent.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 13:45

• Global Warming? It's Snowing In Miami At Packers-Dolphins Game
  Global Warming? It’s Snowing In Miami At Packers-Dolphins Game

  Footage of what appears to be snowflakes falling from the skies over Miami at the Hard Rock Stadium has been uploaded onto Twitter Christmas morning. Football fans whipped out their smartphones to film the rare weather phenomenon in South Florida. 

  We have snow in Miami?pic.twitter.com/KbcB9HDHWJ

  — Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 25, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A nearby National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather station recorded about 37 degrees Fahrenheit around the time the videos of snowflakes were posted on social media. 

  

  There has been no confirmation by any government weather agency about the snow. But Matthew Cappucci, meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang, reported:

  “Yes, it snowed about a hour and a half ago in Brevard County on the Space Coast. It was mostly sleet, but a few snow flurries were mixed in.” 

  CHRISTMAS SNOW IN #FLORIDA! ❄️

  Yes, it snowed about a hour and a half ago in Brevard County on the Space Coast. It was mostly sleet, but a few snow flurries were mixed in. ☃️

  Very cold Siberian air even trying to sneak into the Sunshine State at the upper levels. 🌨 @MyRadarWX pic.twitter.com/VLLsQmmwp5

  — Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) December 25, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It appears Green Bay might have brought the snow. 

  Snow on the beach ❄️🏖️

  It’s GAMEDAY in Miami!#GBvsMIA | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/2H7cFoVNwn

  — Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 25, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Global warming alarmists who said the Earth would imminently burn this past summer will have trouble explaining this. They might respond by saying, ‘it’s because of climate change.’ Well, we have news for them, the climate has been changing for millions of years. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 13:33

• 22 Memes To Help Get You Through Christmas
  22 Memes To Help Get You Through Christmas

  Via Off-Guardian.org,

  So this is Christmas,
  And what have we done?
  We’ve shared lots of meme posts,
  And had lots of fun.
  And told lots of people,
  That the world’s all gone wrong.
  But it’s all a big joke now,
  So let’s all laugh along.

  1. Zelensky was back in Washington this week, you’ll never guess why.

  

  2. This Christmas, remember just 50 billion a year could help support a puppet regime and dozens of war profiteers from the military-industrial complex.

  

  3. On the plus side, he’s so easy to shop for.

  

  4. Not to mention, he’s the hottest-selling toy this season, (with a lego mini-figure who’s actually life-size).

  

  5. Life comes at you pretty fast.

  

  6. Yeah, there’s a lot of them going around.

  

  7. One of the big mysteries of life.

  

  8. “Imagine how much worse it could have been without these seatbelts.”

  

  9. Still, it’s much preferable to the alternative…

  

  10. Really, the price tags should be different colours.

  

  11. “Your stair lift is late? Huh, maybe you should kill yourself“.

  

  12. Like those feminist t-shirts made by women earning 1 dollar an hour.

  

  13. Maybe it would help normies if they thought of homeschooling as a vaccine against state indoctrination.

  

  14. It’s that time of year again.

  

  15. Here at OffG memes, we like to help our readers save money.

  

  16. If you think that’s disappointing, wait ’til you try their cotton candy and peppermints.

  

  17. “It’s the ciiirrr-cle of liiiife”

  

  18. A remake for the the covid age.

  

  19.This movie is 30 years old. I don’t know how to feel about that (but yes, that always bothered me a lot too).

  

  20. …and speaking of old things that are kinda tragic.

  

  21. Nearly done. One last classic movie to ruin.

  

  22. But don’t worry, there’s hope for the future.

  

  Have a very Merry Christmas everyone

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 13:00

• Department Of Homeland Security Issues Christmas Warning To Illegal Immigrants
  Department Of Homeland Security Issues Christmas Warning To Illegal Immigrants

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  The Department of Homeland Security called on would-be illegal immigrants to not cross into the United States this weekend due to the Arctic-cold temperatures across the country.

  “As temperatures remain dangerously low all along the border, no one should put their lives in the hands of smugglers, or risk life and limb attempting to cross only to be returned,” DHS said in a statement on Saturday.

  A major winter storm and cold front descended across the United States late last week, breaking all-time cold temperature records in many cities. Reports indicated that at least 17 people died as of Saturday evening.

  

  Undue Strain

  At the same time, hundreds of thousands of people were left without power across several states. That’s in part due to wind but also due to what utility companies say is undue strain on the power grid due to the freezing temperatures.

  Many electric companies on Sunday continued to ask customers to conserve energy by not running large appliances and turning off unneeded lights. Duke Energy this weekend told customers it had ended the 15-to-30-minute rolling blackouts across North and South Carolina that it had initiated earlier in the day until additional electricity was available.

  More than 2,700 U.S. flights were canceled on Saturday, with total delays tallying more than 6,400, according to flight-tracking service FlightAware. More than 5,000 flights were canceled on Friday, FlightAware said.

  

  An American Airlines plane is de-iced as high winds whip around 7.5 inches of new snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Dec. 22, 2022. (David Joles/Star Tribune via AP)

  The severe weather prompted authorities across the country to open warming centers in libraries and police stations while scrambling to expand temporary shelter for the homeless. The challenge was compounded by an influx of illegal immigrants crossing the U.S. southern border by the thousands in recent weeks.

  The National Weather Service said its map of existing or impending meteorological hazards “depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever.”

  Title 42

  DHS also said that illegal immigrants “attempting to enter without authorization are being expelled, as required by court order under the Title 42 public health authority,” referring to the health-related order that was issued under the Trump administration in early 2020.

  “Regardless of nationality, anyone attempting to enter without authorization is subject to expulsion under Title 42,” said DHS’s statement. “Those who cannot be expelled pursuant to Title 42 may be placed in expedited removal and anyone ordered removed subject to a bar on entry for 5 years under Title 8. Venezuelans attempting to enter the United States between ports of entry also continue to be returned to Mexico, and will be barred from the Venezuela Migration Enforcement Process announced in October.”

  The Supreme Court placed a hold on ending the rule, although lawyers for the Biden administration urged the court to allow it to end. The White House called on the high court to reject an emergency bid by a group of GOP-led states that sought to allow Title 42 to remain while legal challenges continue.

  Last week, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar wrote that it would be unusual for the court to allow those states to step in but wrote the administration “recognizes that the end of the Title 42 orders will likely lead to disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings.”

  “The government in no way seeks to minimize the seriousness of that problem. But the solution to that immigration problem cannot be to extend indefinitely a public-health measure that all now acknowledge has outlived its public-health justification,” she wrote.

  Before the Supreme Court’s ruling, the Democrat-run city of El Paso, Texas, issued an emergency due to a surge of people illegally crossing the border. On Saturday, the city extended the emergency—which takes illegal aliens off the streets and puts them into designated shelters—during a special City Council meeting, local media reported.

  Around the same time, New York City Mayor Eric Adams—whose city has seen an influx of illegal immigrants in recent months—warned that Title 42’s end would force the city to cut some services.

  “Please be advised that due to the lifting of Title 42 later this week, the City is expecting a higher amount of asylum seeker buses beginning today with 2 buses today and 10–15 more expected in the next two days,” Adams, a Democrat, said earlier this month in a statement.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 12:15

• Your Government Hates You
  Your Government Hates You

  Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

  “Fate is nothing but the deeds committed in a prior state of existence.”

   – Ralph Waldo Emerson

  Capital Consuming Gluttony

  Did you know that in fiscal year 2022, federal tax receipts as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) hit a near record high of 19.6 percent?

  According to the U.S. Treasury, in FY 2022, total federal tax receipts and additional federal government revenue topped $4.90 trillion.  Yet, over this time, Congress spent $6.27 trillion.  The difference, the 2022 deficit, was $1.37 trillion.

  The difference, of course, was made up with debt.  And year after year, decade after decade, these deficits have stacked up into a mega pile of debt.  Presently, the U.S. national debt is over $31.4 trillion.  As a reference point, in December 2000, the national debt was $5.6 trillion.

  In other words, over the last 22 years the U.S. national debt has increased 460 percent.  U.S. GDP over this same time, however, has increased just 157 percent, from about $10 trillion to 25.7 trillion.

  You’d think with all that cash coming in from near record tax receipts as a percent of GDP Washington could balance the budget.  Maybe it could even run a surplus and pay down some of the national debt.

  President Andrew Jackson, for example, paid off the entire national debt in 1835 after just six years in office.  He then took the federal government surplus and divided it among indebted states.

  Alas, that’s not how the U.S. government works in the 21st century, where near record tax receipts will never be enough.  Washington’s capital consuming gluttony is well beyond the reach of a human solution.  Nature will have to take its course.

  Skyrocketing Fiscal Year 2023 Deficit

  It doesn’t take big brains or a sharp intellect to understand that spending more than you make for decades on end is terrible way to build wealth.  Many great nations have tried it.  None have been able to sustain it, indefinitely.  They’ve all failed.  The U.S. is no different.

  We believe 2023 will further the divergence between the national debt and GDP.  Specifically, the national debt will continue to grow much faster than GDP.  In fact, it’s already happening.

  The first two months of FY 2023, which commenced in October, are off to a slow start.  Federal revenue rose just 1 percent.  At that rate, federal revenues would increase by 6 percent in FY 2023, as compared to a 21 percent increase in all of FY 2022.

  As noted by the Wall Street Journal, individual taxes rose 4 percent while corporate tax revenue fell 6 percent.  Other revenue, which includes Federal Reserve payments from interest on its bond holdings, dropped 21 percent.  These Fed payments will turn to deficits in 2023 as the central bank shrinks its bond portfolio.

  So, unless the federal government dramatically cuts its spending to be inline with slowing revenue the FY 2023 deficit will skyrocket.  Perhaps the debt market will apply some constraints…

  The federal government, after decades of mass money printing, now has rampant consumer price inflation to contend with.  For this reason, the Treasury can no longer count on the Fed to create credit out of thin air to buy Treasury notes.  To do so would be counter productive to the Fed’s inflation containment program.

  Now, for the first time since quantitative easing was hatched in late 2008, if Washington wants to borrow money to finance its ridiculous spending programs it will have to do so with loans from honest Treasury investors.  Some may find today’s yields worthy.  Others may not.

  Mayors for Guaranteed Income

  The point is the federal government will have to exclusively rely on a class of discerning lenders to finance its deficits for the first time since Lehman Brothers vanished from the face of the earth.  And while the federal government may have some unfamiliar constraints to deal with, the real pain will be felt by state and local governments.

  During the coronavirus fiasco many state and local governments took a ride on the federal government’s gravy train, which was powered by mega amounts of printing press money.  State and local politicians, who are generally much dumber than they look, took this one time, event driven largesse from Washington and used it to establish new, and everlasting structural spending programs.

  This week, for example, we discovered there are at least 82 municipalities across 29 states that are promoting guaranteed income programs.  And more than 70 of these municipalities have pilot programs created in the past year.  There’s even a coalition of over 100 mayors, aptly titled Mayors for Guaranteed Income, that are advocating for them.

  How do these forward-thinking mayors intend to pay for these guaranteed income programs?

  They intend to raid federal pandemic assistance money from a $350 billion fund for state and local governments within the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, adopted in March 2021.  Remember where this money comes from; that is, it comes from you…the American taxpayer.

  Adding to the army of dependents reliant on government for their daily bread is beyond foolish.  People who receive ongoing handouts slip into apathy.  They become unwilling and unable to provide for themselves.  They become dependents for life.  And what happens when the guaranteed income can no longer be guaranteed?

  Without question, these guaranteed income programs are epic disasters in the making.

  Your Government Hates You

  Lastly, we’d be remiss if we did not mention the federal government’s bipartisan $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that’s making its way through Congress at the time of this writing.  This 4,155-page whopper is a Christmas tree bill in the truest sense.  Special gifts to various interest groups are hung on every branch.

  But what’s actually in it?

  The headline accounts are vague.  There’s the amorphous $858 billion for defense.  There’s also the nebulous $772.5 billion for domestic priorities.  What could these be?

  If you’re unclear about just how absolutely screwed we all are, here we turn to the Heritage Foundation for lucidity:

  “[The Omnibus bill] contains billions in wasteful spending on ridiculous political pet projects, including the following:  

  • $1.2 million for “LGBTQIA+ Pride Centers” and another $1.2 million for “support services for DACA recipients” (aka helping illegal aliens with taxpayer funds) at San Diego Community College. 

  • $477,000 for the Equity Institute in Rhode Island to indoctrinate teachers with “antiracism virtual labs.” 

  • $1 million for Zora’s House in Ohio, a “coworking and community space” for “women and gender-expansive people of color.” 

  • $3 million for the American LGBTQ+ Museum in New York City. 

  • $3.6 million for a Michelle Obama Trail in Georgia. 

  • $750,000 for “LGBT and Gender Non-Conforming housing” in Albany, N.Y. 

  • $2 million for the “Great Blacks in Wax” museum in Baltimore. 

  • $856,000 for an “LGBT Center” in New York. 

  • $750,000 for the “TransLatin@ Coalition” to provide “workforce development programs and supportive services for Transgender and Gender nonconforming and Intersex (TGI) immigrant women in Los Angeles.”

  This, my friends, is your tax dollars at work.  This is also an ear-piercing siren signaling the end is nigh.

  The fact of the matter is that if you work hard, pay your own way, believe in free speech and traditional values, and fear God, your government – the dirty cadre of elites and insiders – hates you. 

  

  There’s no other way to explain it.

  Merry Christmas!

  *  *  *

  If you don’t own gold by now, you really have no excuse.  If you do own gold and are looking for other simple, practical steps to protect your wealth and financial privacy I encourage you to consider those documented in the Financial First Aid Kit.  If you’d like to find out more about this important and unique publication, and how to acquire a copy, stop by here today!

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 12/25/2022 – 11:30

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