Dec 26

Today’s News 26th December 2024

  • China Drone Swarms And US Lasers: The Coming Revolutions In Warfare
    China Drone Swarms And US Lasers: The Coming Revolutions In Warfare

    Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times,

    Given the coming technological revolutions in warfare, it is important that the United States and our allies get out in front early, keep the lead, and degrade the adversary’s capabilities.

    China’s “loyal wingman” fighter drones get a lot of attention these days. The wingman is a force multiplier, meant to fly in numbers alongside its crewed jet fighters or to lead a fleet of smaller drones. If deployed in a swarm, the wingmen and smaller drones could quickly overwhelm a fleet of manned fighter jets and air defenses. They are jet-powered but far less expensive than a regular fighter jet to fly, in part because they do not require a trained pilot. Some simulated dogfights between human pilots and artificial intelligence (AI) pilots who learn on the fly have resulted in AI wins as far back as 2020.

    The latest iteration of the Chinese wingman drone—called the Feihong FH-97A—appears to be a vast improvement over the earlier versions unveiled in 2022 and 2023. The FH-97A is reportedly faster than its U.S. counterpart, the XQ-58A Valkyrie. The range of the FH-97A is about 620 miles. The current range is more than enough to reach anywhere in Taiwan, plus sea lanes on the eastern side of the island that would be critical for provisioning Taiwan in case of a war or naval blockade. From Chinese possessions, the FH-97A can range all of South Korea, the East China Sea, parts of Japan and the Philippines, and all of the South China Sea through island hopping on China’s airfields and artificial islands.

    Moreover, the FH-97A could, in the future, be used to attack any part of the United States or Europe, given that it can catapult launch from aircraft carriers and because the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has plans to give it aerial refueling capabilities. The drones will add to the power of the PLA Air Force’s other recent innovations (and thefts from the United States), including stealth fighter jets and stealth bombers. The drones can be used for air- and land-attack missions, electronic warfare, reconnaissance, and bomber escort.

    While the United States has long had better-trained fighter pilots and more advanced planes, giving it air superiority over China, those tables could be turning. Without the need for pilots but rather the utilization of AI programs that have demonstrated superiority, China’s age of high technology and mass industrial production could far outproduce the United States and shift air superiority decisively to the PLA.

    This would have immediate and dire consequences for countries already under military pressure from Beijing, namely Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, and India.

    One promising defense against Chinese drones is laser-based weapons; for example, the HELIOS system deployed on a U.S. naval destroyer in 2022 and the DragonFire system tested by the United Kingdom in January.

    The DragonFire laser can destroy targets with pinpoint accuracy in its line of sight with shots that would cut through the drone’s mechanics or explode its warheads. Each shot costs less than £10 ($12.61) to fire for 10 seconds, suggesting they could be used to cheaply slice into an enemy system with repeated passes. Compare that to the cost of a missile interceptor at a million dollars or more, which can be a waste of money against some of the cheapest Iranian military drones, for example, that cost at most $2,000 each. The British system is planned for deployment on the country’s naval ships by 2027, with the British army also considering a deployment. Scientists in China are also developing laser weapons, including for use from space.

    Laser weapons could eventually negate the power of intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles and force surface and air combatants underwater, where lasers are ineffective.

    Subsurface combatants could become relatively useless against land targets except perhaps those closest to the coast. In the case of Ukraine, for example, the widespread adoption of laser weapons could create a stalemate for years to come.

    The United States is now the world’s strongest superpower, considered economically and militarily. Many have come before, and none lasted forever. One mistake that results in the loss of the technological lead to China or Russia, for example, could be the end of the United States as we know it. Now is our chance to avoid that disaster.

    *  *  *

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 23:00

  • 41% Of College-Aged Voters Consider UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing "Acceptable"; New Poll Finds
    41% Of College-Aged Voters Consider UnitedHealthcare CEO Killing “Acceptable”; New Poll Finds

    Authored by Adam Sabes via Campus Reform,

    41% of college-aged voters consider the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thomas as “acceptable,” according to a new poll…

    Emerson Polling conducted the survey of 1,000 registered voters between Dec. 11-13, according to Axios.

    A whopping 41% of voters aged 18 to 29 years old either consider the killing of Thomas as “acceptable” or “somewhat acceptable.”

    Support for the killing drops significantly in older generations, as 23% of voters aged 30 to 39 support the killing and 13% of those aged 40 to 49.

    Just 8% of voters aged 50 to 59 support the killing.

    One professor at the University of Pennsylvania apologized after praising Luigi Mangione, who allegedly killed Thompson.

    In several posts, University of Pennsylvania Professor Julia Alekseyeva called Mangione “[t]he icon we all need and deserve” and took pride in the fact that he graduated from the same institution.

    In her apology, Alekseyeva wrote:

    “Late last night I posted a TikTok, as well as several stories on my Instagram. These were completely insensitive and inappropriate, and I retract them wholly. I do not condone violence and I am genuinely regretful of any harm the posts have caused.”

    Overall, 68% of voters surveyed consider the actions of Thompson’s killer unacceptable.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 22:00

  • Could Trump's 2024 Victory Counter A 2026 'Midterm Curse'?
    Could Trump’s 2024 Victory Counter A 2026 ‘Midterm Curse’?

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

    Donald Trump’s popular vote victory has eroded some of the demographic gains Democrats have been working on for years, giving Republicans hope they can break the historic trend of the president’s party losing seats in the first midterm election after winning the White House.

    Two years from now some 14 Democratic House members will be defending districts Trump won, compared to just three Republicans in districts carried by Vice President Kamala Harris.

    It’s a significantly better outlook than the GOP faced after Trump’s 2016 victory, which he eked out on the basis of an Electoral College win in the key swing states. That year, two dozen Republicans were elected in districts Hillary Clinton won, roughly the same number of Democrat-occupied seats that Trump carried. In 2018, Democrats gained seats in the Clinton districts and even carved into some of the districts that Trump won, wresting back control of the majority until 2022, when Republicans re-took control.

    One reason House majorities have grown slimmer in recent years is the increasingly sophisticated redistricting fights waged by both parties. Over the last decade, Democrats and Republicans have engaged in a protracted battle over the redrawing of congressional districts involving millions of dollars in litigation, thousands of hours of closed-door negotiations, and multiple Supreme Court showdowns.  

    Partly because of their efforts, Democrats limited the House majority to five seats this year – 220 to Democrats’ 215. But because of Trump’s popular vote victory, winning back the majority in 2026 will require Democrats to carve a path through Trump territory.

    “In places where the Democrats were really banking on this whole ‘demographics as destiny’ thing to carry them through  the decade, President Trump just detonated that,” said Adam Kincaid, president and executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust.

    Overall, Trump carried nearly the same number of congressional districts across the nation – 231 – that he did in 2016 before the most recent redrawing of the congressional maps took place. In 2016, Kincaid says Trump won many of those districts by a plurality because third-party candidate Evan McMullen, a former CIA officer who ran as an independent, siphoned off votes in nearly two dozen districts. Now, Trump’s two-party vote share is 50.8% – meaning he should have carried only 221 congressional districts if the results were directly proportional to the percentage of the vote he won.

    Kincaid argues the surplus of 10 House districts is a sign of his group’s redistricting success.

    Democrats counter that Republicans’ razor-thin majority demonstrates their own success in taking their fights for more advantageous maps to the courts, especially across the South, where Republicans control many state legislatures and have spent decades drawing the maps in their favor.

    In 2016, voters favored House Republicans over Democrats by only a 1.1% advantage, 49.1% to 48%, but Republicans held a far larger House majority, 241 to 194. This year, House Republicans won 50.5% of the vote to Democrats’ 47.9% but will hold only a five-seat majority next year.

    “The popular vote and seat-count margin in Congress this past election and in 2022 is evidence that the [Democratic] redistricting strategy is working,” Marina Jenkins, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, told RealClearPolitics. “What you’re seeing is a map that actually reflects where the voters are, and that’s a far cry from where we were a decade ago.”

    Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the liberal-leaning Brennan Center has long argued that GOP-gerrymandered maps have for years given Republicans such an unfair edge that Democrats typically need to win the national aggregate popular vote in congressional races by 2-3% to control the House.

    He and others often point to 2012, when House Democrats won 1.4 million more votes than Republicans, but the GOP held a 33-seat majority.

    That gap has narrowed greatly in the ensuing years.

    “There’s a lot of really good work that happened by candidates in competitive districts, and there are some places where those competitive districts went to Republicans, but that’s the whole point,” Jenkins said. “These districts are now fair and responsive. If it remains that way through the decade, that’s a good thing.”

    With a more even playing field, the Democrats’ chances of taking advantage of the famed “midterm curse” in 2026 will depend in large part on whether Trump’s popularity recedes over the next two years, a variable impossible to predict. While the national politics play out, Democrats and Republicans will continue focusing on what they can control – continuing their redistricting court battles as far as they can take them.

    This cycle, NDRC efforts are likely to result in Democrats gaining two seats in Alabama and Louisiana as a result of lawsuits forcing the state to abide by the Voting Rights Act, to draw maps reflecting the percentage of black voters. Federal judges ordered lawmakers in those states to give African Americans more opportunities to elect House candidates representing their views.

    Meanwhile, the legal battle over the congressional map in Georgia didn’t change the partisan breakdown of the state’s House delegation. In North Carolina, the Republican-controlled state legislature crafted congressional district lines that gave their party a huge advantage, flipping three seats previously held by Democrats. In New York, the Democratic majority in the state legislature, ridiculed for the comically extreme gerrymandered original congressional map, adjusted to a more modest position.

    Here are some of the most recent redistricting disputes, outcomes, and pending developments.

    Louisiana

    This year, the Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on the lower court ruling forcing the Republican-controlled state legislature to approve a second black-majority district.

    After the November election, the state now has two black members of its six-member delegation – Rep. Cleo Fields representing the newly drawn 6th District, and Rep. Troy Carter, who easily won reelection with 60% of the vote.

    New York

    Even though the predicted Republican “red wave” never materialized in 2022, Republicans managed to flip four House seats in New York that year, which helped them secure the majority. But a ruling by the state’s highest court threatened to jeopardize those gains by making it easier for Democrats to net as many as six Republican-held seats.

    Democratic state lawmakers, however, decided not to overreach and to make only modest adjustments to the district lines. The New York legislature’s final map made modest changes, reducing the number of Republicans in freshman GOP Rep. Brandon William’s district while solidifying Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s Long Island seat, which the party flipped in a February special election to succeed Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the chamber.

    Both parties have said they will operate with the new map, a decision that cements New York as a top battleground for House control for years to come.

    North Carolina

    Republicans hold a supermajority in North Carolina’s state legislature and used that power to redraw districts lines in their favor. The state’s congressional map was redrawn three times before the 2022 midterm elections, resulting in a 7-7 partisan split of the House delegation.

    Republicans who had gained more sway over the redistricting process in the 2022 midterm elections, including flipping the state supreme court, weren’t satisfied and redrew the map once again before 2024.

    In the end, Republicans flipped three House seats to Republicans after the Democratic incumbents decided against running for reelection in the GOP-skewed new districts.

    Democratic Rep. Roy Cooper lacks veto power over redistricting legislation, so Democratic Party lawyers filed lawsuits on behalf of black and Hispanic voters alleging the new map “intentionally discriminates” against minority voters.

    The cases are pending before a three-judge panel.

    Alabama

    The U.S. Supreme Court has already weighed in on the latest Alabama-approved map, which created a second congressional district with a substantial black population. Before the court action, the state, which is 27% African American, had only one black-majority district out of seven.

    In the high court’s 5-4 decision upholding the map, conservative justices John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh agreed with three liberal justices to uphold the lower-court ruling enforcing a key provision of the Voting Rights Act – making it illegal to draw maps aimed at diluting the influence of black voters.

    The ruling, which could impact the similar pending case in Louisiana, resulted in the election of two black House members from Alabama serving together for the first time in history. Shomari Figures will represent the newly drawn 2nd Congressional District, which includes Mobile County and much of the so-called rural “Black Belt” (named for its rich soil, not its people). Figures, a Mobile native who worked in the Biden administration, won by nine percentage points last month. He will join longtime incumbent Rep. Terri Sewell of the state’s sprawling 7th Congressional District centered in her hometown of Selma. She willingly ceded some of the Black Belt to help make the delegation more diverse – and more Democratic.

    The Supreme Court’s ruling blocked the state from implementing its map but was not a final resolution of the case. State officials last fall said they would operate under the high court’s ruling but planned to continue litigating the case. The case is set to go to trial in February.

    Georgia

    Georgia Republicans fought Democratic efforts to add an additional House seat they would likely control. The GOP-drawn map complied with an order issued by U.S. District Judge Steve Jones to establish an additional black majority district.

    The map accommodated that requirement but preserved the Republicans’ 9-5 advantage in the state’s House delegation by shifting the Atlanta-area district held by Rep. Lucy McBath, a black Democrat, farther into Republican territory.

    Jones late in 2023 ruled that the newly drawn map, which preserved the GOP’s 9-5 advantage, “fully complied” with his ruling.

    The judge was abiding by Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which protects minority voters but doesn’t prevent Republicans from altering Democratic-held districts with white majorities or where no ethnic group is in the majority. Such was the case with McBath’s district, enabling the GOP-controlled legislature to dilute the district with more Republican voters. Despite the changes, McBath won the redrawn 6th District with 75% of the vote.

    That’s not the end of the litigation. A separate federal case in Georgia argues the new map is unconstitutional. That case faces a stay pending an appeals court decision in the Voting Rights Act cases, which a three-judge panel is set to hear in late January.

    Florida

    In September 2023, a state judge ruled against a redrawn district in Northern Florida that Gov. Ron DeSantis had defended.

    The case differs from Alabama’s Voting Rights Act lawsuit decided by the Supreme Court in that it is based on the Fair District provisions in the state constitution. The Republican-drawn map dismantled a seat held by Rep. Al Lawson, a black Democrat, that spanned several black communities across a northern swath of Florida.

    Late last year, however, a state appeals court upheld the map DeSantis argued in favor of, determining that the plaintiffs “failed to present any evidence” that the prior version of the district contained a singular cohesive community that would have a right to protection under Florida law.

    The state supreme court is expected to issue an opinion soon.

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 21:00

  • Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Sues NCAA Over Allegedly Misleading Transgender Policy
    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Sues NCAA Over Allegedly Misleading Transgender Policy

    Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) on Dec. 22 for allegedly misleading sportgoers into believing they were watching a competition between players of one gender.

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meeting in National Harbor, Md., on Feb. 23, 2024. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

    “The NCAA is intentionally and knowingly jeopardizing the safety and wellbeing of women by deceptively changing women’s competitions into co-ed competitions,” Paxton said in a statement on Sunday. “When people watch a women’s volleyball game, for example, they expect to see women playing against other women—not biological males pretending to be something they are not. Radical ‘gender theory’ has no place in college sports.”

    Paxton argued in the lawsuit that the NCAA’s practice of allowing biological men who identify as women to play in women’s sports violates the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act, which protects consumers from scams.

    In response to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, an NCAA spokesperson said though the association doesn’t comment on pending litigation, it will “continue to promote Title IX, make unprecedented investments in women’s sports and ensure fair competition in all NCAA championships.”

    “Most consumers know that a ‘woman’ means an adult human female,” Paxton said, a definition that has been commonly understood “throughout human history,” he noted.

    By allowing men to compete in women’s college sports, the NCAA is robbing women of their earned positions and lying to consumers about the competitive nature of the sporting event, he said.

    “When female athletes are forced to compete against men in women’s sports, they are deprived of titles, records, medals, scholarships, and opportunities to win; opportunities to participate in a fair and safe environment; and the ancillary benefits that sports participation provides,” he said in the lawsuit. “Consumers do not purchase goods and services associated with women’s sporting events to watch men steal medals and records from female programs.”

    In March, former college swimmer Riley Gaines and other female college athletes filed a lawsuit against the NCAA for allowing men identifying as women to compete in women’s sports.

    In October, 26 college regents in Georgia called on the NCAA to ban men identifying as transgender athletes from women’s college sports.

    In its “Transgender Student-Athlete Participation Policy,” updated in May 2024, the NCAA said it aligned with the student-athlete Olympic Movement, which allows for “transgender student-athlete participation for each sport to be determined by the policy for the national governing body of that sport.”

    If there’s no national governing body for the sport, NCAA policy guidelines default to the International Olympic Committee’s policy criteria and the 2010 NCAA policy, in addition to a requirement that such athletes “meet the sport standard for documented testosterone levels” before competing.

    On Dec. 20, the Department of Education withdrew its 2023 proposed rule that would have prohibited schools from banning male athletes who identify as women from participating in women’s sports.

    Citing the complexity of the public comments and legal battles, the department said it chose “not to regulate on this issue at this time.”

    Aldgra Fredly and Caden Pearson contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 20:00

  • Merry Christmas… Here's The Average Credit Card Debt In Every US State
    Merry Christmas… Here’s The Average Credit Card Debt In Every US State

    This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, visualizes the average credit card debt held by households in each U.S. state and ranks the states where residents pay off the debt the fastest and slowest.

    Data is sourced from Bankrate (2024) who also used average monthly household income to calculate how long it takes to pay off balances.

    ℹ️ Assumptions made for this analysis: 5% of monthly household income is used for card payments. Also, no new debt is accrued in this time period.

    How Long it Takes to Pay off Credit Card Balances in Each State

    Households in Alaska and Washington D.C. are carrying more than $7,000 in credit card debt, the highest across the country. However, with average annual household incomes of $109,000 and $149,000, residents in both states can pay off their debt in about 14–20 months.

    In fact, glancing through the numbers below reveals a pattern.

    *Assuming no new debt is accrued. **Federal district.

    Richer state households—Connecticut, California, Washington—have higher costs of living and are carrying higher credit card balances. But they also manage to pay them off quickly with their larger incomes.

    On the other hand, households in poorer states have below-average debt but it take closer to two years for them to pay it off.

    This highlights the unequal debt burden across America. While the people living on the coasts have higher costs, they’re compensated by their incomes. However the South’s lower costs are not as evenly compensated.

    And of course, compound interest is not a game played in favor of the borrower. Carrying the debt for longer periods of time accrues additional interest. Bankrate’s analysis points out that when making only minimum payments, it would take more than 17 years to pay it off the national average debt: $6,140.

    In case that seems like a ludicrous amount of time, here’s a good reminder that most credit card interest compounds daily and not monthly.

    Cross reference this map with Credit Card Delinquency Rates by State to see the effects of debt burden.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 19:00

  • Trump Announces Anti-Drug Ad Blitz, Vows To Designate Mexican Cartels As Terrorists
    Trump Announces Anti-Drug Ad Blitz, Vows To Designate Mexican Cartels As Terrorists

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President-elect Donald Trump said Sunday he would aim to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations and will launch an anti-drug advertising campaign inside the United States.

    “I will immediately designate the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations,” Trump said in Arizona at a Turning Point conference, reiterating a campaign promise to make the declaration.

    President-elect Donald Trump looks on during Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Ariz., on Dec. 22, 2024. Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

    While in office in 2019, Trump had planned to make the designation and ultimately did not make the move after a request from then-Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who said he wanted cooperation with the U.S. government on dealing with drug cartels.

    Trump’s election platform has stated when he returns to the White House, he will direct the Department of Defense to use “special forces, cyber warfare, and other covert and overt actions to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership, infrastructure, and operations.”

    Trump on Sunday also previewed a new advertising initiative designed to provide information about the effects of drug use.

    “We’re going to advertise how bad drugs are for you,” Trump said in Arizona at a Turning Point conference, referring to the ad campaign. “They ruin your look, they ruin your face, they ruin your skin, they ruin your teeth.”

    While he did not provide more details about the campaign, it appears to be the first time Trump has made reference to the plan.

    In the 1970s and 1980s, anti-drug ad blitzes were launched across the United States, culminating in former first lady Nancy Reagan’s “just say no” campaign that was designed to prevent younger Americans from doing drugs. Public schools also featured the Drug Abuse Resistance Education, also known as D.A.R.E, that sought to provide information on illegal drugs and controlled substances, as well as prevent gang membership and violent behavior.

    Over the past several years, hundreds of thousands of Americans have died of overdoses of the powerful synthetic opioid fentanyl, which is easy to do due to its potency—just 2 milligrams can be fatal. The drug, which is 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine, is often trafficked across the U.S.–Mexico border by drug cartels based in Mexico.

    Trump’s 2024 campaign has heavily leaned into messaging around stopping the fentanyl epidemic as well as illegal immigration into the United States. Since winning the election last month, the president-elect has said he will also start operations for mass deportations and would declare a nationwide emergency over the matter.

    The incoming Trump administration’s border czar, Tom Homan, a former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and other Trump officials have said that they will prioritize targeting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes or are deemed a threat to U.S. national security for deportation.

    They have also pledged to deport anyone residing in the country illegally, although Trump has indicated he would consider allowing illegal immigrants who have been in the United States since childhood to remain under certain conditions.

    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security estimates that 11 million illegal immigrants were living in the United States as of 2022, the latest statistics that are available. While campaigning in the 2024 contest, Trump talked about creating the “largest deportation effort in the history of our country” and called for using the National Guard and domestic police forces in the effort.

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 18:00

  • Millions Of Companies Must Register w/ Massive U.S. Database By Jan. 1 Due To Last-Minute Court Ruling
    Millions Of Companies Must Register w/ Massive U.S. Database By Jan. 1 Due To Last-Minute Court Ruling

    Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

    Millions of U.S. companies might be busy over the holidays forking over their data to the Treasury Department, thanks to a last-minute ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.

    The Treasury Department / PHOTO: AP

    The Fifth Circuit on Monday overturned a lower court’s injunction against a constitutionally dubious law that requires the country’s estimated 32.6 million active companies to submit their private ownership information to a central database ran by the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCEN.

    The ruling means that all companies formed prior to 2024 must file a report with Treasury by next Wednesday, Jan. 1. Companies formed this year are required to file within 90 days of their formation.

    “Enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) has been reinstated along with its impending January 1, 2025 filing deadline,” the financial firm Brown Advisory said in a Tuesday press release. “These reports provide basic legal information about the company itself, the entity’s owners, and the individuals that create or register the entity.”

    Forbes predicated there’s still a long legal battle ahead.

    “Additionally, a potential new administration may take steps to limit the CTA administratively, adding another layer of uncertainty for businesses,” Forbes reported.

    The cost of compliance with the law is estimated to be some $22.7 billion the first year and $5.6 billion per year thereafter.

    The U.S. government and liberal activists have argued for decades that a central beneficial ownership registry is required to curtail money laundering. Critics have pointed out how the central registry would pose privacy risks and impose another layer of regulation on private businesses. Moreover, criminals wouldn’t voluntarily submit their personal information for such a registry.

    There are six plaintiffs suing over the law, including two that don’t do business outside their respective states. Another plaintiff was the Libertarian Party of Mississippi, which is a non-profit political entity, but would have still had to register under the Corporate Transparency Act.

    Roughly 5 million new companies are formed in the U.S. each year.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 16:00

  • "Sudden Spike" In US Marijuana Substitution For Alcohol Ahead Of Trump-Era
    “Sudden Spike” In US Marijuana Substitution For Alcohol Ahead Of Trump-Era

    The number of Americans turning to marijuana as a substitute for alcohol, cigarettes, and painkillers has surged in recent years, according to a new survey by Bloomberg Intelligence. 

    Amir Islam of Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted a “sudden spike” in the substitution of marijuana for alcohol, with the latest survey showing 44% of respondents making the switch, up from 33% in 2022.

    “This is in contrast to less marijuana substitution for cigarettes (30% vs. 39%) and pain killers (30% vs. 35%). The results may prompt additional interest in cannabis from alcoholic beverage producers,” Islam noted. 

    He further noted that major consumer companies, including Altria, Constellation Brands, British American Tobacco, and Imperial Brands, are expanding into the cannabis industry through joint ventures or acquiring stakes in Canadian cannabis producers, positioning for eventual US expansion when federal laws ease. 

    Looking ahead, President-elect Donald Trump may follow through on the Biden administration’s proposed removal of marijuana from the list of Schedule I controlled substances, reclassifying it as a Schedule III drug, a category that acknowledges the drug has lower misuse potential and is often used for medical benefits. 

    David Culver, the senior vice president of public affairs of the US Cannabis Council lobbying group, told NPR News last month that he’s very optimistic that Trump will approach cannabis in a similar way to Biden. 

    “We didn’t see a lot of activity from President Trump, if any at all, on cannabis reform” in his first term, Culver said, adding, “But I think this time is going to be different.”

    In markets, some of the top marijuana ETFs, including AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), and Amplify US Alternative Harvest ETF (MJUS), have been battered since the marijuana stock bubble unraveled in early 2021. None of these ETFs have yet to bottom. 

    In early September, Trump noted on Truth Social:

    As I have previously stated, I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use. We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to safe, tested product. As a Floridian, I will be voting YES on Amendment 3 this November. As President, we will continue to focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana to a Schedule 3 drug, and work with Congress to pass common sense laws, including safe banking for state authorized companies, and supporting states rights to pass marijuana laws, like in Florida, that work so well for their citizens.

    Keep in mind that with individuals like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who will have prominent roles in the incoming administration and have been pro-legalization advocates, a significant shift in national policy may be just ahead in Trump’s second term. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 15:00

  • 'We Created A Pretend World': Mossad Agents Boast About Mass Pager Attack In Lebanon
    ‘We Created A Pretend World’: Mossad Agents Boast About Mass Pager Attack In Lebanon

    Via The Cradle

    Former Mossad agents revealed new details of Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie terror attacks carried out against members of Hezbollah in interviews with the CBS News program 60 Minutes this week..

    According to a former Israeli intelligence agent known as Michael, Hezbollah bought more than 16,000 of the exploding devices. When Mossad chief David Barnea gave the green light for the attack in September, the pagers and walkie-talkies were detonated on subsequent days.

    Some 42 people were killed, including two children, while about 4,000 were injured. Many lost their hands and eyes or had their stomachs ripped open by the explosions. Michael said the walkie-talkie batteries, which included explosive devices, were made in Israel at a Mossad facility.

    Wounded pager attack victim, via CNN

    Mossad then set up shell companies to infiltrate the supply chain and sell the devices to Hezbollah. The walkie-talkies were designed to go into armored tactical vests used in battle.

    “We create a pretend world. We are a global production company: We write the screenplay, we’re the directors, we’re the producers, we’re the main actors,” Michael said. “And the world is our stage.”

    Another former Mossad agent, Gabriel, told 60 Minutes that the spy agency began developing booby-trapped pagers in 2022. They wanted a device that Hezbollah members would carry with them at all times, not just in battle.

    Gabriel said Mossad had learned that the Lebanese resistance movement was buying pagers from a company in Taiwan called Gold Apollo. Mossad set up shell companies, including one in Hungary, to produce the explosive pagers and market them under a licensing agreement with Gold Apollo.

    The pagers had no intelligence capabilities and could not be used to track Hezbollah members or gather information about them, Gabriel said. They could only be detonated to kill or maim anyone holding them.

    Hezbollah members, both in the military and civilian wings, used pagers instead of cell phones to communicate to avoid being surveilled by Israel. “This is a very stupid device by nature. This is the reason they’re using it. There’s almost no way how to tap it,” Gabriel said. 

    Mossad paid for fake ads on YouTube, promoting them as dustproof, waterproof, and with a long battery life. They also posted fake online testimonials for the pagers.

    “It became the best product in the beeper area in the world,” Gabriel said. “When they are buying from us, they have zero clue that they are buying from the Mossad. We make like the ‘Truman Show,’ everything is controlled by us behind the scenes,” Gabriel claimed.  

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    A Mossad shell company also hired the Gold Apollo saleswoman Hezbollah was already working with. She offered Hezbollah the first batch of pagers as an upgrade, free of charge. By the time of the terror attack in September 2024, around 5,000 Hezbollah members were carrying the pagers. 

    At 3:30 pm on September 17, Mossad detonated the pagers. The walkie-talkies were detonated the following day. “Mayhem ensued as explosions went off. Hospitals filled up with the wounded. Limbs and fingers were torn off. People were left bloodied, blinded, and even with holes in their stomachs,” CBS wrote.

    Following the pager and walkie-talkie terror attacks, the Israeli Air Force unleashed a major bombing campaign in Lebanon. The bombing killed over 500 people on just the first day.

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    On September 27, Israel dropped over 80 2,000-pound bombs (around 907 kilograms) on Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s bunker, assassinating him.

    Over the next two months, Israel and Hezbollah fought a major war that ended in a 60-day ceasefire that took effect on November 27.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 14:15

  • Owners Of Russian Ship Ursa Major Declare Sinking An "Act Of Terrorism"
    Owners Of Russian Ship Ursa Major Declare Sinking An “Act Of Terrorism”

    The Russian cargo ship that sank on Tuesday in the Mediterranean Sea following a mysterious explosion in its engine room was described as an “act of terrorism,” according to the vessel’s owner.

    Reuters cites the Russian news agency RIA, which reported on Christmas Day that Oboronlogistika, the ship’s owner and a subsidiary of the Russian Defense Ministry’s military construction operations, stated that the cargo ship, named Ursa Major, had been targeted in “a terrorist act.”

    On Monday, Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate reported the cargo vessel was “sent by Russia to retrieve its weapons and equipment from Syria, broke down off the coast of Portugal due to a malfunction in the fuel pipe of its main engine.” 

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    The ship tracking website Marine Traffic shows Ursa Major’s last location was drifting on the high seas near Portugal before sinking on Tuesday. 

    Neither RIA nor Russian authorities have provided additional color about the claimed terrorist attack on the cargo vessel or who they suspect is responsible.

    We asked earlier this week: “The big question for the Ursa Major is whether any US Navy submarines with special forces units lurk beneath.” 

    If the terrorist attack claim is confirmed, the fear is that the battlefield in Eastern Europe is broadening outside the region.

    Nearly three years into the Russia-Ukraine war and marking the second Christmas, Free Press’ Jay Solomon recently asked: “Is World War III Already Here?”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 13:30

  • These Are The 9 Most MAGA-Friendly Christmas Movies (And Why)
    These Are The 9 Most MAGA-Friendly Christmas Movies (And Why)

    Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

    Christmas is, above all else, a time for putting aside the petty grievances and differences that separate us from one another and finding meaning in something greater than ourselves.

    Some of the best works of literature and cinema about the season examine this spirit of selflessness, which can seem antithetical to “America First” values when cast in a particular light. But at its core, the spirit of Christmas is quintessentially the same as that which brought millions of people to the polls in November to re-elect Donald Trump. 

    Attempting to catalog all of the thousands of Christmas movies, of course, would be an impossible feat, but below is a list of nine (plus honorable mentions) that resonate particularly well with the MAGA message.

    While the list leaves a lot open to interpretation as to what constitutes a “Christmas” movie or a “MAGA” movie, the one prerequisite was that the themes of both had to be prevalent enough to be immediately recognizable.

    Thus, Rambo: First Blood may have included a scene with Christmas decorations in it, but it did not make the cut—even though it might be considered a MAGA classic—because the movie itself does not directly involve the holiday. And although the BB gun subplot in A Christmas Story may have promoted Second Amendment rights for some, that was not an explicit message so much as it was a sign of the times.

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    We will kick things off with the low-hanging fruit—the only Christmas classic (to date) known to include a cameo from future two-time President Donald Trump himself.

    9. HOME ALONE 2: LOST IN NEW YORK

    Why it counts: Trump

    The sequel to one of the most beloved modern Christmas classics is now one of the most beloved MAGA classics due to Trump’s cameo appearance. Much of the film revolves around the iconic Plaza Hotel, which Trump owned at the time but went on to sell in 1995. (Maybe he found out that the desk clerk also moonlighted as a transvestite.)

    Another memorable scene takes place at the Wollman Rink, a public ice-skating ring with strong ties to the former Manhattan real-estate magnate. And as an added bonus, the movie features an early appearance from MAGA-friendly comedian Rob Schneider as the bellhop.

    Unfortunately, some of its other actors, including Macaulay Culkin and Daniel Stern, have attempted in recent years to use the movie’s renewed relevance as a platform for petty political attacks, and any royalties from it benefit them as well.

    Honorable mention: While stylistically very different and not specifically centered around Trump himself, MAGA fans might also consider watching A Lion in Winter, the star-studded 1968 Oscar-winner about an aging ruler who—like Trump—has three sons and must decide who is best fit to carry on his dynasty.

    8. ROCKY IV

    Why it counts: Peace through strength

    The 1985 box-office smash came at the very peak of the Ronald Reagan era, just two years before the famous Berlin speech that saw Reagan urging Mikhail Gorbachev to “tear down this wall” and four years before the official fall of the Soviet Union. It was the last of the Rocky films to be directed by Trump-backer Sylvester Stallone (who fittingly described the Republican leader as a “Dickensian” character) until 2006’s Rocky Balboa.

    While the Cold War-jingoism resonated with Republicans during the Reagan era, Stallone’s climactic victory speech also underscores the ideas of mutual respect and healthy dialogue as a means to peace.

    “In here, there were two guys killing each other, but I guess that’s better than 20 million,” Rocky Balboa says after his defeat of Ivan Drago. “I guess what I’m trying to say, is that if I can change, and you can change, everybody can change!”

    He then wishes his son a Merry Christmas, as the fight took place on Christmas Day. Although the holiday does not figure prominently into the plot, it is one of several action movies whose inclusion of Christmas elements has sparked debate.

    However, because the Soviet Union was typically hostile toward religion and did not formally recognize Christmas as a holiday, Balboa’s sacrifice in forgoing the holiday season for the greater good of his country may have been an important reminder that many of those in uniform may not have had the luxury of returning home for the holidays.

    Honorable mention: The aforementioned Rambo: First Blood has holiday decorations, but the ever-controversial Die Hard, set during the Christmas season, is the best known of all the Christmas “action” movies that have audiences divided, featuring rogue cop John McClane (portrayed by Bruce Willis—another rare Hollywood Republican) taking on a network of terrorists in New York City.

    7. THE REF

    Why it counts: Political incorrectness

    Ref star Denis Leary unfortunately made the decision in a 2016 gag appearance with late-night host James Corden to attack Trump by rewriting the words to his 1990s gag song “A**hole” for that year’s campaign against Hillary Clinton. It was a hamfisted attempt at comedy then, and it has aged particularly poorly given Trump’s resonance with the American voting public—many of them the same blue-collar types whom Leary tried to appeal to with his updated Archie Bunker schtick.

    Leary’s 1994 holiday hit The Ref also aged poorly for its other star, Kevin Spacey, but those able to suspend their disbelief can appreciate the fantastic comedic timing that Spacey and co-star Judy Davis have as a bickering couple on the verge of divorce. There may be one or two obligatory Republican “digs” slipped into the script, but those only accentuate the absurdity of an affluent and insufferable New England family that loves to virtue-signal but finds itself utterly out of touch with anything beyond their own selfish needs and desires—until the outside world forces its way into their lives.

    Leary, as a cat-burglar caught in the middle of a hostage situation gone awry, is the perfect foil for the limousine liberals, presaging the “Tea Party” movement that would arrive 10 years later.

    Honorable mention: While the only reference to American politics in 2003’s Love Actually may be the scene with Billy Bob Thornton as a Bill Clinton/George W. Bush hybrid of an uncouth, self-serving American president, the movie’s other plots have become well known for their anachronisms—including toxic, anti-MeToo workplaces, trans/LGBT humor and fat shaming, plus a kid gatehopping past airport security and not getting shot. For those who don’t know the holiday classic by heart, consider pouring everyone a cup of spiked eggnog and turning it into a fun drinking game every time something happens that you could never get away with 20 years later.

    6. THE HUDSUCKER PROXY

    Why it counts: Anti-corporate subversiveness

    Like other selections on the list, the star of this early Coen Brothers movie, Tim Robbins, is an outspoken leftist in real life, which can make it difficult to identify with the character. Yet, it also serves as a reminder than many of the classically liberal values once embraced by the Left have now been embraced and appropriated by MAGA-style populism.

    It involves a corporation (with the great Paul Newman as a member of its board of directors) that selects Robbins’s character as its top executive in hopes of tanking the stock to permit a corporate buyout. But Robbins generates an idea that is both deceptively simple and wildly appealing, leading the  plot to backfire.

    The movie is set over Christmas, with its climax occurring on New Year’s Eve, and has some yuletide thematic elements at the end appearing to echo stories like A Christmas Carol and It’s a Wonderful Life.

    Honorable mention: Others have pointed out in the past that when the full set of facts is taken into consideration, the true hero of It’s a Wonderful Life is Henry Potter, a stockholder in the Bailey Building and Loan company who is forced to pay the price for its bad business decisions. Like Trump, Potter falls the victim to a socialist plot that uses propaganda and lawfare to slander him into submission. Although the movie ends with George Bailey having prevailed, there are hints that a world where Potter never existed would be far worse than one where Bailey never existed.

    5. EYES WIDE SHUT

    Why it counts: Globalist elites’ excesses/depravity

    Stanley Kubrick’s final movie, based on Austrian author Arthur Schnitzler’s 1926 novella “Dream Story,” changes the events from a Mardi Gras celebration to a Christmas one, adding more to the surreal quality of the cinematography.

    The 1999 Tom Cruise film has secured a unique place in pop culture, even inspiring a recent AI tribute by the Dor Brothers that featured world leaders attending a similar masked ball.

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    Kurbrick also drew much of the film’s aesthetic from accounts of a real-life 1972 black-tie ball hosted by Baroness Marie-Hélène de Rothschild that was heavy on Satanic symbolism.

    Theories about members of the globalist elite engaging in such bizarre behavior, often connected to Satanic undertones and sex-cults, have continued to snowball in recent years, ranging from the secret cover-up of Jeffrey Epstein’s client list to the rumors of the Clinton–Podesta Pizzagate conspiracy, to the accounts of cocaine-fueled orgies involving members of Congress and the annual Davos conference hosted by the World Economic Forum.

    Honorable mention: Rod Serling’s 1964 made-for-TV adaptation of A Christmas Carol, titled Carol for Another Christmas was a star-studded propaganda piece commissioned by the United Nations to persuade Americans that the UN did not have a communist agenda in the aftermath of the JFK assassination. It resurfaced in 2012 after Turner Classic Movies began re-airing it. But hindsight makes the propaganda all the more obvious and blatant, perhaps exposing just how left-wing globalist groups like the UN have used Hollywood to undermine American interests.

    4. BRAZIL

    Why it counts: Deep-state resistance

    Monty Python alum Terry Gilliam directed this 1985 dystopian tale (released just weeks after Rambo IV) about a cog in the system who, shortly before Christmas, discovers a serious mistake caused by a literal bug in the machinery. The discovery sends him into a Kafkaesque spiral of tension-escalating plot twists. While trying to break free from the system, he is himself detained and tortured, with the ending leaving it ambiguous as to whether freedom in this society is truly attainable.

    Honorable mention: The Nativity Story, a 2006 retelling of the birth of Jesus tells the familiar tale with an emphasis on the Magi (not to be confused with MAGA), the three wise men who arrived on Jan. 6—known to Christians as the celebration of the Epiphany. King Herrod of Judea sought help from the visiting Oriental trio in locating the Jewish messiah, whom he feared would supplant him as ruler. Although the king resorted to drastic measures—demanding the slaughter of innocent babies, much like the modern Left’s abortion agenda—the Magi refused to cooperate, making them the original J6 political dissidents.

    3. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT

    Why it counts: Blue-collar empowerment

    The 2002 third installment in the comedic series that coined the term “Bye Felicia” finds friends Craig (portrayed by red-pilled rapper Ice Cube) and Day-Day forced to get jobs as security guards after a thief dressed as Santa steals all their Christmas presents. The movie also features a turn from Terry Crews (another red-pilled actor, best known for his turn as President Camacho in the modern cult classic Idiocracy) as a newly-released inmate who picked up homosexual tendencies while incarcerated.

    Honorable mention: Jim Varney’s redneck hero Ernest P. Worrell returns to his most famous role in 1988’s Ernest Saves Christmas, in which the hero becomes Santa Claus after the original Santa leaves his magic bag in the back of Ernest’s cab in Orlando.

    2. SILENT NIGHT

    Why it counts: Vaccine skepticism

    Made during the peak of the COVID-19 hysteria, this 2021 movie, with an ensemble cast led by Keira Knightley, begins as the typical “home for the holidays” comedy set at a British country estate. However, it later takes a genre-bending turn that is as jarring and drastic as the arrival of the pandemic was in March 2020. It is one of the few on this list that may have spoilers, so viewers who don’t mind dampening the holiday spirit (definitely not one to watch with the kids) should watch it for themselves.

    Honorable mention: The Stephen Spielberg-produced Gremlins, written by future Harry Potter director Chris Columbus, remarkably is considered a kid-friendly movie—or, at least, it was when it first came out in 1984. However, it too blends heartwarming and nostalgic family comedy with significantly darker elements after a specimen of Chinese origin, the mogwai, makes its way to small-town America. A scientist (biology teacher Mr. Hanson) then ignores the rules for containing it, leading to a catastrophic epidemic that seem a lot like the gain-of-function research advocated by ex-COVID czar Anthony Fauci.

    1. A CHARLIE BROWN CHRISTMAS

    Why it counts: Winning the culture war

    With the exception of The Nativity Story, none of the films listed connect with the religious component of the Christmas holiday. That has much to do with its commercialization and sanitization by Hollywood and others to make it more inclusive and profitable.

    I, for one, take no issue with the idea of everyone sharing in a seasonal yuletide spirit regardless of belief (this year, Christmas happens to coincide with the start of the relatively minor Jewish holiday of Hannukah), but ultimately there is only one thing that “Christmas is all about,” and nobody articulates that as well as Linus in this 1965 animated classic, which has prevailed over all the efforts by the Left to memory-hole it.

    Honorable mention: Aliens envious of Earth’s culture, travel there to kidnap two children, along with Santa Claus, but later decide that it is unreconcilable with their own culture in 1964’s Santa Claus Conquers the Martians, made for an estimated budget of around $200,000. They attempt to sabotage Santa’s toymaking industry and to replace Santa with one of their own kind, but the plan fails, much as the Left’s so-called Great Replacement strategy via open borders cannot conquer the Western cultures they are seeking to supplant with their reverse-colonization scheme.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 12:45

  • How The Daniel Penny Trial Divided The Nation
    How The Daniel Penny Trial Divided The Nation

    Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The trial of Daniel Penny split many observers into two camps—one passionately for and the other fiercely against the defendant, who restrained Jordan Neely in a chokehold on a New York subway in May 2023 and Neely died.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images

    The first camp brands Penny, who was acquitted of the charges of second-degree manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide, a brave hero who was protecting others from Neely. They say Penny is a victim of overreach by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

    The second camp calls Penny a killer with no regard for the value of a poor, ill, homeless man’s life.

    Representative of the view showing disdain for Penny were public comments made by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), whose district includes part of Queens. Before the trial began, she called him a “murderer,” and after the verdict, she criticized him again, saying Penny “does not have remorse about taking another person’s life.”

    Defense lawyers, who unsuccessfully moved for a mistrial, complained to Judge Maxwell Wiley about the “circus-like” atmosphere fostered by loud, angry, sometimes menacing protesters on the street outside the courthouse.

    Protesters had made threats against their client and against jurors if they didn’t vote to convict, defense lawyer Thomas Kenniff told the judge.

    The trial began in late October and ended with Penny’s acquittal on Dec. 9. Despite the acquittal, the case raises questions about the challenge of holding a fair and impartial trial in an age of 24/7 social media saturation.

    David Dorfman, a professor of law at Pace University in New York City, said he believes the “toxic social media environment” and the politicization of the justice system made it difficult to have a fair trial, in a case that the government never should have brought in the first place.

    Divine Pryor, executive director of the Center for NuLeadership on Urban Solutions, said he doesn’t think the 24/7 coverage of the Penny case or the street protests exerted undue influence on the course of the trial or the outcome.

    “There are always non-evidentiary pressures that emerge during any high-profile trial that come from arenas outside the judicial process, and they are usually shaped and guided by the media,” he said. His organization, a New York-based nonprofit, advocates for criminal justice reform.

    Jordan Neely’s uncle, Christopher Neely (C), joins demonstrators before Daniel Penny arrives for jury deliberations, outside the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse in New York City on Dec. 9, 2024. Alex Kent/Getty Images

    “Unfortunately, I was not surprised by the verdict, and I did not expect a conviction on any of the charges, because he was immediately portrayed as a ‘war hero’ who was, once again, protecting the community,” Pryor said in an email to The Epoch Times.

    “He was able to make bail and obtain legal counsel, and he won the hearts of the public. The fact that he was a middle-class, white male—well, what’s understood needs no explanation,” he said.

    Pryor said he views the Penny case as similar in some ways to the Bernhard Goetz case in the ‘80s. Goetz shot and injured four young black men who he believed were trying to rob him on a subway in December 1984. In that case, public perceptions of crime, and the races of the people involved, may have shaped perceptions even before the case went to trial, Pryor suggested. The jury ultimately convicted Goetz of carrying an unlicensed firearm but acquitted him of attempted murder.

    As a defense lawyer, Kenniff saw it differently. He sees non-evidentiary pressures as a negative influence not just in this trial, but in a politicized justice system more generally.

    “There were certainly efforts to malign our client and poison the jury pool against him. I think Steven Raiser and I were successful in beating back against much of that, but I can’t say it didn’t impact things,” Kenniff said in an email to The Epoch Times.

    Intimidation of jurors from activists and protesters demanding a certain outcome presents a “real risk,” he said.

    “We saw attempts at that in this trial, where witnesses admitted they were afraid to testify favorably towards Mr. Penny out of fear of retribution. However, the jury refused to be swayed by any of that, and for that we’re grateful,” Kenniff stated.

    Harvey Kushner, chair of the criminal justice department at Long Island University, said the social media-driven pressures that moved Penny’s defense lawyers to argue for a mistrial may be all the more severe in years to come.

    “If you look at the Penny case, you can’t compare it to other times, because the media have changed so dramatically,” Kushner said.

    “This was all over the media, people were not only viewing it but interacting with it on Facebook, TikTok, and X. The way they process it is different today.”

    Thomas Kenniff, attorney representing Daniel Penny, prepares to speak to the media after Penny turned himself into the 5th Precinct in New York City on May 12, 2023. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    A Fateful Ride

    In making its case to the jury, the defense evoked a situation that some or all of the twelve men and women could identify with, having rode the subway themselves and having found themselves in vulnerable situations where no police officers were on hand to respond in the event of an immediate physical threat.

    The incident that defense lawyers Steven Raiser and Thomas Kenniff and lead prosecutor, Assistant District Attorney Dafna Yoran, debated in a lower Manhattan courtroom began on May 1, 2023, when an uptown F train pulled into the Second Avenue station.

    Before the doors closed, Neely entered the train and immediately began acting in a manner that frightened and alarmed passengers, according to several who took the stand during the trial.

    Neely, who had a record of 42 arrests and an outstanding warrant for his arrest on an assault charge at the time, threw his jacket onto the ground and began shouting that he was hungry, homeless, and did not care whether he went back to prison on Rikers Island.

    That was when Penny, who had been listening to music on his earbuds, asked a stranger to hold the earbuds, and then got up, moved behind Neely, and applied a chokehold he had learned during his time in the U.S. Marines.

    Direct and cross-examination dwelled extensively on the amount of time that Penny restrained Neely and on the physical and physiological factors that caused Neely’s death a short time later.

    Nonetheless, witness after witness reiterated the sheer terror that Neely’s conduct caused them.

    Though called to the stand as government witnesses, these men and women of diverse professional, personal, and ethnic backgrounds gave a version of events that could only buttress the defense position that passengers on the F train had a reasonable and immediate fear for their physical safety.

    Lori Sitro, a research director at an agency in the city, described feeling particularly vulnerable because she had her small boy with her on the train. Under direct examination from a prosecutor, Sitro said that Neely’s threats were explicit, and frightening.

    “He was shouting in people’s faces, ‘I don’t have water, I don’t have food, I don’t have a home, I want to hurt people, I want to go to Rikers, I want to go to prison.’ And he was getting increasingly belligerent,” Sitro recalled.

    Police stand outside the Broadway-Lafayette subway station a week after Jordan Neely died, in New York City on May 10, 2023. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    From the witness stand, Sitro performed a brief pantomime of lunges that she said Neely made toward passengers on the train. His conduct made her so fearful for the safety of her son, that she moved a stroller in front of him as an impromptu shield.

    Another passenger, a teenaged student named Yvette Rosario, recalled feeling such terror that she thought she would pass out, and burying her face in the chest of a friend who stood next to her.

    Dan Couvreur, the founder of a financial startup, said the incident far surpassed tense, unpleasant things he had witnessed on the subway before. “The anger, the aggressiveness, and that tone set it above these other situations that I’ve seen,” he said.

    Yet another witness, Alethea Gittings, who was on her way to a dentist’s appointment when the trouble started, attributed a highly explicit threat to Neely. “If I remember correctly, he said ‘I don’t give a damn, I’ll kill a [expletive], I’m ready to die,’” she testified.

    Gittings further testified not only to thanking Penny for his actions, but to agreeing, without any pressure on Penny’s part, to speak to police about what had happened.

    The defense made much of the accounts of these men and women, who suddenly found themselves in a tense and terrifying situation and in need of someone to come to their aid.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 12:00

  • The Musk-Led Manufacturing Revolution Nobody Is Talking About
    The Musk-Led Manufacturing Revolution Nobody Is Talking About

    When most analysts discuss Tesla, they focus on new vehicles or the electric vehicle company’s advancements in autonomy. Yet, according to Launch i/o CEO Jeff Lutz, one of the most significant—and under-discussed—developments at Tesla is happening not in its design studios or on the road, but in its factories. Lutz, a former executive at Google and Motorola, argues that Tesla’s true innovation isn’t just the electric vehicles or robots it’s building, but how those products are being made. The company’s first-principles approach to manufacturing is a radical departure from the industry norm, focusing not just on cheap labor or existing models, but on rethinking the entire production process.

    Tesla is creating factories that are the product—designing, testing, and perfecting every element just as they do with their cars. This focus on manufacturing efficiency, Lutz believes, will lead to a dramatic reduction in production costs, potentially bringing them closer to zero. And this shift in how products are built—rather than merely assembled—could set a new standard for the entire manufacturing world.

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    FARZAD MESBAHI: It’s no wonder that innovation has been lacking so much it’s because we’ve brute forced essentially manufacturing by leveraging globalization because we had that $2 an hour rate in China or Mexico wherever else like we’re not like well we have to just get really good at building stuff to be competitive I was like nah just let him do it like we’ll get get our margins just let them do it.

    JEFF LUTZ: The most under-discussed thing in the analyst world about Tesla is not the new vehicles coming, nor the growing discussions about autonomy, but rather Tesla’s next product: their new way of manufacturing. It’s a big deal, a huge step in how products are made today, and I don’t think many investment firms have the right research people actually looking into what this impact is and what it’s going to enable. It’s going to enable the variable cost to build products to shrink further and further, approaching zero.

    This is the step function needed for cost reduction to achieve further scale, and I don’t think enough people are talking about it. It’s going to be how the Cybertruck is made, how Optimus will be made. Tesla versions its factories like they version their product. They spend time perfecting it and have design reviews of their factory designs just as they do with their products. They have specs and performance attributes they are trying to meet. This is very different from what happens at other companies at the executive level.

    FARZAD MESBAHI: This is such a profound statement because a lot of the stories that I hear are related to, like, say Tesla capitalizing on making manufacturing the product—really just honing in so much on the factory that it becomes the product, the you know, and where we throw around 2 million cars per year, five million cars per year per factory, tens of millions of bots per year sooner than people think. The usual narrative is crazy, pie-in-the-sky; they can’t do that, look at Ford, look at BYD, they can only do so much.

    But what we’re missing here is that we’ve had decades of just sitting on our asses, leveraging cheaper labor versus going out of our way to really push the boundaries of engineering and manufacturing. And now that we have a company that’s willing to do that because the leader is viewing that as a first principles approach to manufacturing, right? Instead of like, okay, cheap labor is good, but why aren’t we pushing manufacturing and engineering as much as we can to make this as efficient and as productive as possible?

    Of course they’re extremely talented, they’re doing something very unique, but it’s also on the backs of 30-40 years of, I’m going to call it laziness. Like, you’re just taking the easy way out, and I get it, more profits, you’re taking care of shareholders—I get it—but you’re not really pushing the boundaries of manufacturing. I think what this leads to is, if companies and leaders truly take this to heart, we’re going to see an explosion in manufacturing across the board. It’s not just going to be a Tesla thing; I think we’re going to see it all over the place.

    JEFF LUTZ: I’m advising companies on this now, you’re going to see massive localization of manufacturing. People think costs just instantly go up when you do that. They do unmitigated, but if you’re a company like Tesla and you’re thinking about it the way they do, they’re actually focused on localizing and making costs go down. Think of it, how many auto factories are expanding in Germany? Just answer that question.

    Watch the entire exchange here:

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 11:15

  • Dramatic Video Shows Azerbaijan Airlines Passenger Jet Crash In Kazakhstan
    Dramatic Video Shows Azerbaijan Airlines Passenger Jet Crash In Kazakhstan

    Update (1035ET): 

    “There is no official statement that Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243 was shot down, or shots fired at it, following a video shared on social media showing traces of shrapnel on the rear fuselage section of the aircraft,” Breaking Aviation News & Videos wrote on X. 

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    Breaking Aviation News & Videos provided a first-hand account of the mid-air incident from one passenger:

    “Passenger Kristina from Vladivostok has told the Mash telegram channel that the plane circled over Aktau for about an hour before falling. During the descent, a dull thud was heard, similar to a collision.”

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    Alleged footage of J28243’s final minutes. 

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    What is this unexplained damage on the Embraer ERJ-190’s vertical stabilizer, horizontal stabilizer, and elevators?

    *   *   *

    An Azerbaijan Airlines commercial jet carrying 62 passengers and five crew members crashed in the Kazakhstani city of Aktau. The Embraer ERJ-190 attempted an emergency landing following initial reports of a “bird strike.” Early reports indicate there are 28 survivors.

    “Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65,” flight tracking website Flightradar24 wrote on X. 

    Flightradar24 said, “J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft transmit bad ADS-B data. At 04:40 UTC we lost the ADS-B signal. At 06:07 UTC we picked up the ADS-B signal again before it crashed at 06:28 UTC.” 

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    “The aircraft was struggling to maintain altitude for more than 1 hour,” Flightradar24 noted.

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    The flight-tracking website also noted: “The aircraft was exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.”

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    Russian media outlet RIA News said the loss of partial flight controls was due to a “collision with birds,” forcing the pilot to declare an emergency and attempt a landing at Aktau. 

    Dramatic videos of the landing approach and crash were posted on X. 

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    Footage of the survivors.

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    “Stabilizer changes position downwards in the last seconds, reminds me of the cases of the 737max,” one X user said. 

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    Were the flight controls locked up? 

    Perhaps one way to crush altitude with loss of flaps… 

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    Bird strike? Or… 

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    *Developing… 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 10:35

  • El-Erian: A Baseline Scenario For The Global Economy In 2025
    El-Erian: A Baseline Scenario For The Global Economy In 2025

    Authored by Mohamed El-Erian via Project Syndicate,

    In 2024, global geopolitics and national politics have undergone considerable upheaval, and the world economy has both significant weaknesses, including Europe and China, and notable bright spots, especially the US. In the coming year, the range of possible outcomes will broaden further.

    It is something of a tradition every December to take stock of the year that is ending and consider what might lie ahead. This is true on a personal level: in my family, we tend to do this around the dinner table.

    But it is also true more broadly, with the time of year inviting an examination of the intersection of economics, national politics, and global geopolitics.

    You would be forgiven if, as a starting point, you expected these three areas to be in alignment.

    After all, they are deeply interconnected, which suggests self-reinforcing dynamics.

    But 2024 brought some unusual dispersion in this relationship that actually widened, rather than narrowed, over the course of the year.

    Begin with geopolitics. In 2024, Russia secured a greater advantage in the Ukraine war than the consensus forecasts of a year ago anticipated. Similarly, the human suffering and physical destruction resulting from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza exceeded most observers’ already-grim expectations, and spread to other countries, such as Lebanon. The apparent impunity of the strong, together with the absence of effective means of preventing dire humanitarian crises, has deepened the sense for many that the global order is fundamentally imbalanced, and lacks any enforceable guardrails.

    As for domestic politics, upheaval has been the order of the day in many countries. Governments have collapsed in both France and Germany – Europe’s largest economies – leaving the European Union without political leadership. And following Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s presidential election, the United States is preparing for a political transition that is likely to bring a significant increase in the political influence of a new “counter-elite.”

    Meanwhile, an “axis of convenience” – comprising China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia – is seeking to challenge the Western-dominated international order. Other recent developments – from the now-impeached South Korean president’s abrupt declaration of martial law (which was quickly reversed) to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria – have reinforced the impression that we are living at a time of exceptional geopolitical and political volatility.

    The last year also brought some worrisome macroeconomic developments.

    Europe’s malaise has deepened, as countries grapple with low growth and large budget deficits. And China has failed to respond credibly to the clear and present danger of “Japanification,” with unfavorable demographics, a debt overhang, and a prolonged property-market downturn undermining growth, economic efficiency, and consumer confidence.

    And yet, stock markets have remained relatively stable and delivered high returns, including almost 60 record-high closes for the S&P index.

    The US economy’s exceptional performance is a major reason why. Far from weakening, as most economists expected, the US pulled even further ahead. Given the amount of foreign capital the US is attracting, and the scale of its investment in the future drivers of productivity, competitiveness, and growth, it is likely to continue outperforming other major economies in 2025.

    One consequence of this success is that the US Federal Reserve did not deliver the soothing 1.75-2-percentage-point interest-rate cuts that markets were pricing in a year ago.

    This trend, too, is set to continue: at December’s policy meeting, the Fed signaled fewer cuts in 2025, and a higher terminal (long-run) rate.

    But political and geopolitical upheaval – and the limited prospects for significant improvements – does pose a risk to the endurance of US economic exceptionalism. Even if the US continues outperforming its peers, as expected, the range of possible outcomes, in terms of both growth and inflation, has widened. In fact, global economic and policy outcomes as a whole are now subject to a larger possibility set, both because the downside risks have grown and because upside innovations – such as in artificial intelligence, life sciences, food security, health care, and defense – could transform sectors and accelerate productivity gains.

    Absent a major policy reset, my baseline scenario for the US includes a somewhat lower immediate growth rate, even as the economy outperforms its peers, and sticky inflation.

    This will present the Fed with a choice:

    1. accept above-target inflation,

    2. or attempt to bring it down and risk tipping the economy into recession.

    Globally, economic fragmentation will continue, pushing some countries to diversify their reserves further away from the US dollar and explore alternatives to Western payment systems. Yields on US ten-year government bonds – a global benchmark – will edge higher, trading mostly in the 4.75-5% range. As for financial markets, they might find it more challenging to maintain their status as the “good house” in a challenging geo-economic neighborhood.

    This is how things appear now. But, beyond recognizing the wider dispersion of possible economic outcomes in 2025, it will be crucial regularly to test whichever baseline one embraces against actual developments.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 10:30

  • Too Much Tesla Hype From Wedbush's Daniel Ives? Deutsche Bank Sees Q4 Deliveries Missing
    Too Much Tesla Hype From Wedbush’s Daniel Ives? Deutsche Bank Sees Q4 Deliveries Missing

    Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives recently told clients that Tesla could surpass a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2025. He raised Tesla’s price target to $515 from $400 while reiterating an “Outperform” rating. 

    Ives called incoming policy shifts under Trump’s second term a “total game changer” as Tesla’s autonomous driving and artificial intelligence businesses are expected to surge in a more friendly operating environment. 

    “We are raising our price target on Tesla to $515 from $400 as we believe the Trump White House the next 4 years will be a “total game changer” for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years. Our bull case is $650 for 2025,” Ives told clients. 

    However, in a separate note, Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu and Winnie Dong provided clients with the understanding that quarter four “represents the largest delivery quarter for Tesla” and “so far we think it is tracking somewhat below” the 515,000 mark needed to grow volume on the year.

    “Tesla volume could fall slightly below target Tesla would need to deliver at least 515k vehicles in Q4 to grow volume slightly for the full year, and based on quarter-to-date data, it appears to be tracking closer to 500k vs. DBe/Street at 510-511k,” the analysts said. 

    They expect, “The largest source of volume in Q4 should come from China, which appears to be tracking to nearly 210k deliveries, helped by zero % financing incentives, along with a cash discount on the Model Y. N. America should be around 150k and Europe at 84k units,” adding, “In October and November, retail sales in China totaled 40.5k and 73.5k units, and December MTD is >40k units (through the 15th). By model, our tracking suggests 153k units of Model 3, 322k of Model Y, 11k of Model S+X, and ~14k of Cybertruck.” 

    The analysts also provided third-quarter figures showing that the Tesla Model Y, Model 3, and Cybertruck were the best-selling models in the US. Regarding purchasing these vehicles, Experian data shows Teslas have the highest percentage of loans and or cash transactions compared to all other EV sales, with many other brands seeing more leases by consumers. Perhaps that speaks volumes about Elon Musk’s brand in the eyes of the consumer…

    In the third quarter, Tesla reported 462,890 deliveries and 469,796 vehicles produced, slightly missing the FactSet StreetAccount. As for Tesla, hitting the 515,000 mark for the fourth quarter to achieve growth in the full year remains questionable. 

    Entering the new year, Musk’s EV price war with startups and legacy brands is expected to intensify as President-elect Donald Trump plans to eliminate the $7,500 EV tax credit. Musk has applauded Trump’s decision to roll back EV tax credits, which could bankrupt his competitors. 

    New auto loan rates remain at two-decade highs and are expected to stay elevated through 2025, adding continued headwinds to auto sales amid an affordability crisis.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 09:55

  • Russia Launches Christmas Assault On Ukraine, Targeting Power Grid 
    Russia Launches Christmas Assault On Ukraine, Targeting Power Grid 

    Russia unleashed a massive aerial attack using missiles and drones on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the Christmas Day assault “inhuman.”

    “Today, Putin deliberately chose Christmas to attack. What could be more inhuman? More than 70 missiles, including ballistic missiles, and more than a hundred attack drones,” the Ukrainian president wrote on Telegram.

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    Bloomberg cited Ukraine’s power grid operator, Ukrenergo, as saying the attack left 500,000 customers in the Kharkiv region without heating, while blackouts were triggered in parts of Kyiv and elsewhere. 

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    Zelenskiy said, “Russian evil will not break Ukraine and will not distort Christmas.” Duh… Starlink. 

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    Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed the Christmas Day aerial strike on Ukraine as a “massive” one and said energy infrastructure near Kyiv’s “military-industrial complex” was targeted. 

    “The aim of the strike was achieved. All facilities have been hit,” the ministry wrote in a statement, as quoted by Reuters. 

    Nearly three years into the war and marking the second Christmas, Free Press’ Jay Solomon recently asked: “Is World War III Already Here?”

    Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump recently described the war in Ukraine as total “carnage,” unprecedented since World War II, and emphasized the urgent need for peace.

    Gen Zers aspiring to become social media influencers or OnlyFans models should realize they could be the ones shipped off if World War III erupts. This generation’s lack of anti-war advocacy might stem from ignorance, as their faces remain glued to their devices.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 09:20

  • Syrian Christians Protest Presence Of Foreign Jihadists After Christmas Display Burned
    Syrian Christians Protest Presence Of Foreign Jihadists After Christmas Display Burned

    Starting Monday night and into Tuesday, large demonstrations broke out in Christian areas of Damascus and other parts of Syria over the continued presence of foreign jihadists in the country.

    The ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has vowed to protect the sizeable non-Muslim communities of Syria (Christians, Alawites, and Druze) following the overthrow of the secular-leaning President Assad and his Baath government, but deep fears have remained that an Islamic state based on Sharia law will emerge.

    HTS Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is currently trying to appease Western and external backers by saying all the ‘right things’ in public—but Christians in particular are deeply fearful given that since the jihadist takeover of the country there have been several acts of anti-Christian vandalism and attacks.

    Under the prior Assad government, Christians and others had a high degree of religious freedom. Churches would sound bells on special holidays, Christmas lights and decorations would be prominent in December, and special festivals would often take over entire streets and neighborhoods in celebration.

    The pre-war Christian population was commonly estimated to be ten to twelve percent of the population, but since 2011 many have fled. Christians have also been killed or kidnapped over the years by Western and Gulf-backed militants, including priests and two bishops who were Christian leaders in Aleppo.

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    While Jolani is trying to send positive signals to the US government and others over the future of Syria’s Christians, Church leaders and the people are not waiting around.

    On Tuesday night Christian districts in and around Damascus as well parts of Hama countryside erupted in protest after the day prior armed men set fire to a large Christmas display in the Christian town of Suqaylabiyah, in Hama governate.

    Below is a scene from one of the largest Christian areas of central Damascus Tuesday night:

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    “We demand the rights of Christians,” the protesters chanted, many carrying crosses. Other slogans demanded a future role in the country for all Syrians, and that churches and the religious freedom of everyone must be protected.

    A regional source has described the initial Christmas tree burning which outraged Syria’s Christians as follows:

    Video footage that circulated on social media on 23 December showed a large Christmas tree burning in Hama’s Suqaylabiyah – a Christian neighborhood. The tree was set ablaze on Monday by foreign militants under HTS’s command. Some reports said the militants were from Chechnya, while others said they were Uzbeki fighters.

    HTS deployed a military official to the scene of the burning to condemn the incident and vow punishment for those responsible. 

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    “Protests led by Syrian Christians also took place in Sahnaya, Jaramana, Hama, and other areas of the country,” the same outlet reported.

    Church leaders remain on edge given that foreign militants control broad swathes of the countryside and are able to attack non-Muslims with impunity. HTS has also at times conducted acts of “intimidation” – for example by entering church services in Damascus while openly brandishing rifles.

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    Christians are telling HTS that if they are serious about governing, they must immediately kick the foreign jihadists out of the country. The black flags of ISIS have also been spotted in various parts of the country, and are sometimes even sported by HTS members themselves.

    The foreign jihadists entered the country in the first place during the prior 13 years of war, often crossing into Syria from NATO-member Turkey and with the tacit support of the Western and Gulf anti-Assad alliance.

    * * *

    For more on the history of Christians in Syria and persecution at the hands of fanatical militant groups during the past decade of war, see Syria Crucified…

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 08:45

  • Bitcoin Christmas: How To Give Family & Friends Useful Crypto Advice
    Bitcoin Christmas: How To Give Family & Friends Useful Crypto Advice

    Authored by Daniel Ramirez-Escudero via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Retail investors are famously always late to the party, flocking to Bitcoin only when it smashes through glamorous milestones like $100,000. 

    This Christmas, the dinner table will offer more than turkey and pudding. Expect curious relatives to test your crypto savvy and ask how to join the bull market. Are you ready for the spotlight?

    This festive season, your “orange pill” credentials are on trial. Will you dazzle with eloquent arguments on decentralization and monetary sovereignty or crumble like a stale mince pie and just stammer, “Number go up!” under the holiday spotlight? 

    Fear not — here are some tips to steer your family and friends through the crypto conversation.

    Remember: You’re not a crypto guru and can’t predict the future

    One of the first things you must do is make sure they know that any action taken “is their responsibility.” 

    Inexperienced investors might mistake you for a crypto guru, but let’s be honest — that’s probably not the case. Chris Burniske, partner at venture capital firm Placeholder and former blockchain products lead at ARK Invest, put it:

    “No one knows anything for sure about markets. The only people you know for sure are lying, are those who say they ‘know for sure.’”

    When crypto markets roar in a full-blown bull run, everyone feels like the next Warren Buffett. Stay humble — admit you don’t have all the answers. Remind them not to follow your footsteps blindly like a herd of sheep. Caution is key, even in the frenzy.

    Give them context on where we are in the bull market

    As Bitcoin dominates headlines, everyday investors with little experience often succumb to FOMO — the fear of missing out — and rush in without fully understanding the risks. 

    Retail investors are often desperate to get in fast, driven by the overwhelming hype where everybody seems to be becoming rich with crypto.

    Bitcoin Roller Coaster. Source: Bitcoincoaster

    Successful crypto traders counter their human instincts — they buy when crypto attention is low and sell when euphoria sweeps the market. Retail investors, on the other hand, often follow the herd, driven by emotion rather than strategy.

    Burniske said the “painful reality” is that rising cryptocurrency prices inevitably draw attention, which fuels further buying. The feedback loop, which he nicknamed the “attention cycle,” accelerates when prices become extraordinary.

    “The later we are in that attention cycle, the worse the entry.”

    Burniske advises, “Give them context on where we are currently in the cycle.” He believes the market has been in a bull run for two years and may now enter its final stages.

    So, what should you do when their “appetite for crypto exposure remains insatiable,” even if it’s possibly the wrong time to enter?

    Burniske believes they should enter with an equal proportion to Bitcoin, Ether and Solana  with a ratio of 50%/25%/25%. Burniske said that if they get trapped if the market turns into a bear market, at least “they’re holding quality.”

    If they’re tempted to dive into altcoins or memecoins chasing get-rich-quick schemes, Burniske recommends advising them to allocate no more than 10% of their total investment while reminding them that it’s “at their own risk.”

    Timing the crypto exit is the real challenge

    Stepping into the crypto markets is easy. Many retail investors dive in with excitement, quickly seeing gains as the bull market drives prices upward. But remember, what goes up must come down.

    The conditions for the crypto markets have rarely been more favorable, particularly in terms of crypto regulation and institutional adoption.

    United States President-elect Donald Trump made numerous pro-crypto promises during his election campaign. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler looks set to be replaced by the pro-crypto Paul Atkins, and a Solana bagholder is set to become the new US crypto czar.

    Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a bill for the US to buy Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and institutional adoption continues to soar, with crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) breaking new records. 

    The rise of the Bitcoin ETF market capitalization. Source: CoinGlass

    Given these transformative changes, some believe the historical four-year Bitcoin cycle will be replaced with a supercycle, where assets trend ever upward.

    But don’t bank on it. Burniske warns that this could lead retail investors to miss the opportunity to take profits at the market peak.

    “‘Supercycle’ is without fail a collective delusion.”

    Burniske acknowledges that “ETFs and potential sovereign buying ‘could’ mean we don’t have as brutal a bear in the future for BTC.” However, he cautions, “Anything that goes 100x quickly is prone to at least an 80-90% crash at some point, structurally — too many people sitting on profit.”

    Bitcoin’s price performance peaks and lows from prior cycles. Source: Caleb & Brown

    Burniske said that it’s hard for people to grasp how sharply a cryptocurrency can decline. However, given you’ve probably roundtripped your own bags in at least one previous cycle, you can warn them of the problem. “Since you’ve lived it, you know, and now you can teach them.”

    Nothing is certain except death and taxes

    Armed with the knowledge you’ve given them about what to buy and when to sell, there are still further common mistakes investors can make, according to Burniske.

    When investors sell during a bull market, they may watch the coin continue to soar, as no one can predict when the peak has been reached. Burniske advises teaching new investors to resist FOMO and avoid reinvesting profits in an attempt to chase further gains. This is “generally a horrible idea.”

    This practice is risky because if the market suddenly collapses, investors could owe more taxes on realized gains than the value of the assets left after the crash.

    To avoid falling into this FOMO trap, he recommends placing the gains out of the crypto market for 12–18 months in traditional accounts, which can provide some interest (crypto stablecoins have additional risks). This reserved money will be used to pay tax liabilities. 

    Once taxes are settled, the cycle can begin anew. Burniske recommends “sniffing around again” in crypto markets when sentiment turns to apathy, typically around 12 months after the peak.

    Wall Street cheat sheet: the psychology of a market cycle. Source: ResearchGate

    As an experienced crypto investor, it’s crucial to help guide new investors to avoid repeating the same mistakes in the next bull market. Encourage them to get interested in crypto when the attention cycle is low — or non-existent. If done right, they’ll be well-positioned to educate other newcomers who might jump in during the next wave of hype.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/25/2024 – 08:10

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