Today’s News 26th June 2021

• Escobar: A Sovereign Iran Will Move Closer To Russia-China
  Escobar: A Sovereign Iran Will Move Closer To Russia-China

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  Iran’s president-elect will ‘Look East’ while seeking to exit ‘strategic patience’ when dealing with the US…

  

  In his first press conference as President-Elect with 62% of the votes, Ebrahim Raesi, facing a forest of microphones, came out swinging and leaving nothing to the imagination.

  On the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal, the dossier that completely obsesses the West, Raeisi was clear:

  • the US must immediately return to the JCPOA that Washington unilaterally violated, and lift all sanctions.

  • The JCPOA negotiations in Vienna will proceed, but they do not condition anything in terms of Iran’s future.

  • The Iranian ballistic missile program is absolutely non-negotiable in the framework of the JCPOA, and will not be curbed.

  Asked by a Russian journalist whether he would meet President Biden if a deal was struck in Vienna and all sanctions lifted – a major “if” – Raeisi’s answer was a straight “No”.

  It’s crucial to stress that Raeisi, in principle, favors the restoration of the JCPOA as its was signed in 2015 – following the guidelines of Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. But if the Vienna charade goes on forever and the Americans keep insisting on rewriting the deal towards other areas of Iranian national security, that’s a definitive red line.

  Raeisi acknowledged the immense internal challenges he faces, in terms of putting the Iranian economy back on track, getting rid of the neoliberal drive of outgoing Team Rouhani, and fighting widespread corruption. The fact that election turnout was only 48.7%, compared to the average 70% in the prior three presidential contests will make it even more difficult.

  Yet in foreign policy Iran’s path ahead is unmistakable, centered on the “Look East” strategy, which means closer cooperation with China and Russia, with Iran developing as a key node of Eurasian integration or, according to the Russian vision, the Greater Eurasia Partnership.

  As Professor Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran told me “there’s going to the a tilt eastward, and to the Global South. Iran will improve relations with China and Russia, also because of US pressure and sanctions. President-elect Raeisi will be better positioned to strengthen these ties than the outgoing administration.”

  Marandi added, “Iran won’t intentionally hurt the nuclear deal if the Americans – and the Europeans – move towards full implementation. The Iranians will reciprocate. Neighbors and regional countries will also be a priority. So Iran will no longer be waiting for the West.”

  Marandi also made a quite nuanced distinction that the current policy was “a major mistake” by Team Rouhani, yet “not the fault of Dr. Zarif or the Foreign Ministry, but the government as a whole.” That implies the Rouhani administration placed all its bets on the JCPOA and was completely unprepared for Trump’s “maximum pressure” offensive, which de facto decimated the reformist-minded Iranian middle class.

  In a nutshell: in the Raeisi era, exit “strategic patience” when dealing with the US. Enter “active deterrence”.

  A key node of BRI and EAEU

  Raeisi was met by those who control the “international community” narrative with proverbially derisive and/or demonizing epithets: loyal to the “repressive machinery” of the Islamic Republic, “hardliner”, violator of human rights, mass executioner, anti-Western fanatic, or simply “killer”. Amnesty International even called for him to be investigated as perpetrator of crimes against humanity.

  Facts are more prosaic. Raesi, born in Mashhad, has a PhD in jurisprudence and fundamentals of Islamic law and a further jurisprudence degree from the Qom seminary. His previous positions include member of the Assembly of Experts and chief of the Judiciary.

  He may not have been exposed to the Western way of life, but he’s not “anti-Western” – as he believes Iran must interact with all nations. Yet foreign policy must follow Khamenei’s guidelines, which are very clear. Without understanding Khamenei’s worldview, any analysis of Iranian complexities is an idle sport. For essential background, please refer to my Asia Times e-book Persian Miniatures.

  It all starts with Ayatollah Khomeini’s founding concept of an Islamic Republic, which was indeed influenced by Plato’s Republic as well as Muslim political philosopher al-Farabi’s Virtuous City (also Plato-influenced).

  On the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Khamenei updated his concept of foreign policy, as part of a clear map for the future. This is absolutely required reading to understand what Iran is all about. An excellent analysis by Mansoureh Tajik emphasizes the ways the system strives for balance and justice. Khamenei could not be more straightforward when he writes,

  “Today, the challenge for the US is Iran’s presence at the borders surrounding the Zionist regime and dismantling the illegitimate influence and presence of America from West Asia, Islamic Republic’s defense of Palestinian fighters at the heart of the occupied territories, and defense of holy flag of Hizbullah and the Resistance in the entire region. If in those days, the West’s problem was preventing Iran from buying even the most primitive forms of arms for its defense, today, its challenge is to prevent the Iranian arms, military equipment, and drones reaching Hizbullah and the Resistance everywhere in the region. If in those days, America imagined it can overcome the Islamic System and the Iranian nation with the help of a few self-selling Iranian traitors, today, it is finding itself in need of a large coalition of tens of hostile yet impotent governments to fight Iran. Yet, it fails.”

  In terms of Big Power politics, Iran’s “Look East” policy was devised by Khamenei – who fully vetted the $400 billion-worth Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership, which is directly linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and also supports Iran joining the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).

  So it’s Iran as a key Eurasian connectivity hub that is going to shape its geopolitical and geoeconomic future. And not the West, as Marandi stressed.

  China will be investing in Iranian banking, telecom, ports, railways, public health and information technology – not to mention striking bilateral deals in weapons development and intel sharing.

  On the Russian front, the impetus will come from the development of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), which directly competes with an East to West overland corridor that can be hit anytime with extra-territorial American sanctions.

  Iran has already struck an interim free trade agreement with the EAEU, active since October 2019. A full fledged deal – with Iran as a full member – may be struck in the first few months of the Raeisi era, with important consequences for trade from the South Caucasus to wider Southwest Asia and even Southeast Asia: Vietnam and Singapore already have free trade zones with the EAEU.

  The American rhetoric about Iran’s “isolation” does not fool anyone in Southwest Asia – as the developing interaction with China-Russia attests. Add to it Moscow’s reading of the “mood for deepening dialogue and developing contacts in the defense sphere”.

  So this is what the Raeisi era is leading to: a more solid union of Iranian Shi’ism, socialism with Chinese characteristics and the Greater Eurasia Partnership. And it doesn’t hurt that state of the art Russian military technology is quietly surveying the evolving chessboard.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 23:40

• Visualizing 150 Years Of US National Debt
  Visualizing 150 Years Of US National Debt

  The total U.S. national debt reached an all-time high of $28 trillion* in March 2021, the largest amount ever recorded.

  Recent increases to the debt have been fueled by massive fiscal stimulus bills like the CARES Act ($2.2 trillion in March 2020), the Consolidated Appropriations Act ($2.3 trillion in December 2020), and most recently, the American Rescue Plan ($1.9 trillion in March 2021).

  To see how America’s debt has gotten to its current point, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Christina Kostandi created an interactive timeline using data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It’s crucial to note that the data set uses U.S. national debt held by the public, which excludes intergovernmental holdings.

  

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  *Editor’s note: This top level figure includes intragovernmental holdings, or the roughly $6 trillion of debt owed within the government to itself.

  What Influences U.S. Debt?

  It’s worth pointing out that the national debt hasn’t always been this large.

  Looking back 150 years, we can see that its size relative to GDP has fluctuated greatly, hitting multiple peaks and troughs. These movements generally correspond with events such as wars and recessions.

  

  To gain further insight into the history of the U.S. national debt, let’s review some key economic events in America’s history.

  The Great Depression

  After its WWI victory, the U.S. enjoyed a period of post-war prosperity commonly referred to as the Roaring Twenties.

  This led to the creation of a stock market bubble which would eventually burst in 1929, causing massive damage to the U.S. economy. The country’s GDP was cut in half (partially due to deflation), while the unemployment rate rose to 25%.

  Government revenues dipped as a result, pushing debt held by the public as a % of GDP from its low of 15% in 1929, to a high of 44% in 1934.

  World War II

  WWII quickly brought the U.S. back to full employment, but it was an incredibly expensive endeavor. The total cost of the war is estimated to be over $4 trillion in today’s dollars.

  To finance its efforts, the U.S. relied heavily on war bonds, a type of bond that is marketed to citizens during armed conflicts. These bonds were sold in various denominations ranging from $25-$10,000 and had a 2.9% interest rate compounded semiannually.

  Over 85 million Americans purchased these bonds, helping the U.S. government to raise $186 billion (not adjusted for inflation). This pushed debt above 100% of GDP for the first time ever, but was also enough to cover 63% of the war’s total cost.

  The Postwar Period

  Following World War II, the U.S. experienced robust economic growth.

  Despite involvement in the Korea and Vietnam wars, debt-to-GDP declined to a low of 23% in 1974—largely because these wars were financed by raising taxes rather than borrowing.

  The economy eventually slowed in the early 1980s, prompting President Reagan to slash taxes on corporations and high earning individuals. Income taxes on the top bracket, for example, fell from 70% to 50%.

  2008 Global Financial Crisis

  The Global Financial Crisis served as a precursor for today’s debt landscape.

  Interest rates were reduced to near-zero levels to speed up the economic recovery, enabling the government to borrow with relative ease. Rates remained at these suppressed levels from 2008 to 2015, and debt-to-GDP grew from 39% to 73%.

  It’s important to note that even before 2008, the U.S. government had been consistently running annual budget deficits. This means that the government spends more than it earns each year through taxes.

  The National Debt Today

  The COVID-19 pandemic damaged many areas of the global economy, forcing governments to drastically increase their spending. At the same time, many central banks once again reduced interest rates to zero.

  This has resulted in a growing snowball of government debt that shows little signs of shrinking, even though the worst of the pandemic is already behind us.

  In the U.S., federal debt has reached or surpassed WWII levels. When excluding intragovernmental holdings, it now sits at 104% of GDP—and including those holdings, it sits at 128% of GDP. But while the debt is expected to grow even further, the cost of servicing this debt has actually decreased in recent years.

  

  This is because existing government bonds, which were originally issued at higher rates, are now maturing and being refinanced to take advantage of today’s lower borrowing costs.

  The key takeaway from this is that the U.S. national debt will remain manageable for the foreseeable future. Longer term, however, interest expenses are expected to grow significantly—especially if interest rates begin to rise again.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 23:20

• The Woke Business Complex
  The Woke Business Complex

  Authored by Robert E Wright via The American Institute for Economic Research,

  As he left office in early 1961, President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned Americans about the biggest domestic threats to their liberty, the military-industrial and scientific-technological complexes.

  

  Ostensibly, those two aspects of what was later sometimes termed The Deep State or The Swamp defeated the Union of Soviet Social Republics (USSR) circa 1990 and then went in search of other threats, including Islamic extremism.

  But those threats were never threatening enough to justify the billions sought by defense contractors, Big Pharma, Big Tech, and so forth, so reality often got stretched into outright lies. Remember Colin Powell’s yellow cake speech?

  Former president Donald J. Trump tried to turn the power of the two complexes against China, or at least the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but the complexes resisted. The USSR had been a poor trading partner so helping to bring it down was good business.

  Ditto with Islamic extremism. But China is too lucrative a market to make trade war upon!

  Instead, in 2020, under the mantras of “public health” and “social justice,” the complexes merged into what might be termed The Woke Business Complex.

  Rather than thwarting communism, its goal is to “make America equitable again” and frankly that looks a whole lot like communism.

  “Woke” is indeed a “complex” in Eisenhower’s sense, a network of individuals and institutions able to tap the U.S. federal budget to enlarge the network’s profit and power. Money flows, for example, from the government to universities in exchange for Victim Studies graduates, some of whom become higher education consultants and deans of diversity who push for more Victim Studies programs. Others find their way into the administration of corporations, which understand that their access to federal money, or at least less rigorous regulatory and tax scrutiny, depends on how many Victim Studies graduates they hire.

  Were that all, the Woke fleecing of America would be no worse than the rents earned by the military-industrial and academic-medical-scientific-technology complexes, which at least produced aircraft carriers, vaccines, and other ostensibly valuable, if excessively costly, goods. The Woke Business Complex, though, produces only dismisinfoganda. Consider this viral meme, which defines “equity” as equal outcomes, i.e., a sort of communism:

  

  The meme is of course extremely weak because it posits the existence of the capital goods displayed, i.e., the baseball stadium, the teams, and the crates. It also misses the fact that the “equity solution” would arise spontaneously out of the incentives of the people involved. Specifically, the tallest person would not want to stand on a crate as it would make him more conspicuous to stadium security. Presumably, the little guy isn’t on his father’s shoulders for the same reason, though of course that solution also would violate social distancing guidelines as well as the Woke desire to displace the nuclear family to make more room for the State.

  Critiques of the meme abound and some are pretty funny, like one that points out that all three are free riding on baseball by poaching a view. If the family is too poor to be able to afford tickets, the meme seems to suggest that “equity” doesn’t include getting all three a more comfortable view of the game.

  But we know how to get all three a more comfortable view of the game because it happens every day all summer long. It’s called free markets, which explains not only how and why the capital pictured in the meme was created, it also explains why few people free ride on baseball games anymore. It isn’t in the interest of baseball teams to allow it, so they gave up such chincy fencing a century ago and invited even the poorest of the poor into their games with a menu of inexpensive options.

  My favorite, as a yute, was the Knothole Gang, a throwback to the days when fans would peek through holes in pine fences to catch glimpses of games for free. By the 1970s, it was just a cheap ticket promotion. If memory serves, the Rochester Red Wings of the AAA International League in the old Silver Stadium sold Knothole memberships for $5, which entitled the punch ticket holder to attend up to 10 games, albeit only in the bleachers during “big games.” That’s only 50 cents a ticket, not much money even half a century ago, in the midst of the Great Inflation. Today, one can see the Billings Mustangs play 38 times for $12 or the Wichita Wranglers play 10 times for $10.

  Bleacher seats suck but they are better than standing on any combination of crates. Moreover, once in the park one was free after the third inning to take any seat in the house until (usually if) the ticket holder appeared. For fiddy cents, I watched the last two thirds of many a game from the comfort of a lower level box seat.

  For those who live near teams that do not offer such low prices or free seat upgrades, though, other options are available. I used to listen to Yankee games back in the Chambliss, Jackson, Munson, Guidry days on AM radio from western New York. We had what passed for a television but few Yankee games were broadcast locally as we were technically in the market of the Toronto Blue Jays, and that expansion team, itself a product of free markets, needed all the help it could get. Today, of course, one can subscribe to a month of MLB.TV for peanuts, literally for what it would cost for peanuts for a family of three in some major league parks, and monitor simulcasts or listen to play-by-play or stream games to one’s content.

  None of those offer the same experience as being in-park, like paying to park or being around drunkards, so many people who could afford to go to games choose the substitutes instead. It’s all good! Fans have choices because it is in the interest of the teams to provide choices for everyone, from catered, enclosed, private corporate boxes to bleachers. And that, not the ultimately unequal equity panel in the meme, is something we can all cheer.

  Just think, though, of the uproarious applause that would occur if governments would stop over-regulating and over-taxing economic agents and allow every human to thrive instead of diverting resources to the Woke Business Complex! Then the poor meme man and his family would be able to attend more games, in proper seats, and not worry about the added expense of transportation and stadium peanuts. But curbing government overreach would require a more “equitable” distribution of political and soft power. Where’s the meme for that?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 23:00

• US Navy's Most Advanced Nuclear-Powered Sub Plagued With Problems
  US Navy’s Most Advanced Nuclear-Powered Sub Plagued With Problems

  America’s nuclear-powered fast-attack submarines are experiencing maintenance bottlenecks as specific components are wearing out decades earlier due to faulty manufacturing. The lack of spare parts has resulted in the Navy cannibalizing submarines in construction so its Virginia-class subs can remain in a state of readiness. 

  Bloomberg, citing a new Naval Sea Systems Command and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, says spare parts for the Virginia class, also known as the SSN-774 class, are lacking and has forced shipyards to “borrow or “cannibalize” parts from newly built subs.

  The good news is that Congress has pushed the Navy to increase construction rates for Virginia class subs from two per year to three. The service declined to define which parts are affected but noted they’re for non-propulsion electronic systems. 

  The number of swapped parts has increased over the years – many of the parts are for the submarines which entered service in 2004. By 2013, at least 100 parts were swapped from new subs to older ones. By 2013 that number grew to 171, then 201 in 2018, 452 in 2019, and then declined to 218 in 2020. Expectations this year are around 82. 

  Bryan Clark, a former special assistant to the chief of naval operations, said the parts problem is a significant readiness issue “that goes with the overall concern that the Navy is not investing enough in maintenance, supply chains, and shipyard infrastructure.” 

  Clark, who is now a naval analyst with the Hudson Institute, said, “the Navy may have been too slow to act on indications that some components were wearing out faster.”

  Part swapping has led to delays in the delivery of new subs. The CBO said cannibalizing parts from newly built subs for an older one creates an extra workload for shipyards. Another problem is the parts being swapped could be damaged during transition. 

  

  Naval officials are “not satisfied with any material cannibalization that limits our submarine fleet’s ability to respond to national tasking and is taking all steps necessary to avoid these scenarios,” the Naval Sea Systems Command said in a statement. To mitigate part swapping, the service has ramped up ordering parts earlier to “reduce material work stoppages and maintenance delays awaiting components.”

  About 70% of the part swaps were for subs that entered service in 2004 and 2008. 

  The Navy blames contractors who manufactured parts that were out of specification “contribute to a small percentage” of premature parts wear.

  The subs are designed by Virginia-based General Dynamics, who told Bloomberg:

  “We work closely with the Navy to help it address any unanticipated issues with parts, to include initiatives to design improvements that can be applied to future boats.”

  Brent Sadler, a naval fellow at the Heritage Foundation and also served multiple tours on nuclear-powered subs, said his “assessment is that operational assumptions were off in the design.” He added, “suppliers may have made modifications to the materials after design without considering” potential corrosion that “resulted in rapid failure of specific parts.”

  It’s “not clear what steps Navy has taken to address the root cause of this situation, which to me is the most important aspect of this,” said Sadler.

  Virginia-class submarines will remain in service until 2060, but in the first 17 years since the first sub went into service, design flaws have already resulted in significant headaches for the Navy. 

  We reported last year the stealth coating of at least one Virginia-class submarine has a “stealth problem.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 22:40

• The Road To Dystopia
  The Road To Dystopia

  Authored by David Hancock via AmericanThinker.com,

  George Santayana: 

  “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

  But those who do not read dystopian literature will be unaware of possible futures.

  

  It has become passé to quote Orwell’s 1984 in any context, especially that it was not intended as a “how to” manual.  

  For those who have shunned this genre as unworthy from a sense of intellectual superiority, I would first suggest Robert A. Heinlein.

  Hanlon’s razor dates back to “Doc” in “Logic of Empire.”  The character Doc in Heinlein’s story described the “devil theory” fallacy, explaining, “You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity.”

  In Starship Troopers, Heinlein advances the concept of only military veterans having the right to vote — a concept that will trigger much angst but probably not much rational debate.  I would translate his idea into the fact that he believed that you have to have skin in the game.  Does something have value if you do not have to do anything to get it?

  Let us take a look at Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, where citizens are environmentally engineered into an intelligence-based social hierarchy.  Dr. S. Matthew Liao, a professor of philosophy and bioethics at New York University, during a 2016 panel discussion, proposed the potential use of genetic engineering and hormone therapy that could result in birthing smaller, less resource-needy children.  If we make them 15% smaller, they will need 15% less resources from the planet and thus save us from extinction.

  Now let us look at a favorite from my lost youth, John Christopher, The Death of Grass (No Blade of Grass) in 1956.  A virus that starts in the Far East…wipes out rice.  It then mutates — where have you heard this — and takes on the rest of the grass family — wheat, barley etc.  It is the story of one man trying to reach his brother’s potato farm in an isolated valley in the north of England.  There is a very biblical ending for the brothers as this tale devolves into the savagery that can occur so easily in our complex society.

  In my limited intellectual way, I found that these novels are about good and evil.  

  Assessing the situation today with respect to COVID, I must ask, is there a villain?  

  Recently, little tidbits have dribbled out about altered gene sequencing in viruses.  The term “gain of function” is creeping into the lexicon.  We have learned that gain-of-function research, although banned in the continental U.S., has been carried out in China, funded by the U.S. government.

  Why and for what purpose?  Is it villainy or stupidity, with a dash of arrogance?

  How does this fit into their business model?  Check their net worth change versus yours.

  Who knew, and what is their goal?  They are the philosopher-kings of Plato’s Republic, not the republic envisioned in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

  Life is not a dystopian novel…yet.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 22:20

• How An Obscure App Turned Millions Into Unwitting Spies For The US Military
  How An Obscure App Turned Millions Into Unwitting Spies For The US Military

  There’s a growing cottage industry at the nexus of consumer research and government surveillance.

  In a report published Friday, the Wall Street Journal explored the world of Premise Data Corp., an innocently-named firm that uses a network of users, many in the developing world, who complete basic tasks for small commissions. Assignments can range from snapping photos of competitors’ stores, to counting the number of ATMs in a given area, to reporting on the price of consumer goods on the shelf.

  Roughly half of the firm’s clients are private businesses seeking “commercial information” (mostly reporting on competitors’ operations), both the US government and foreign governments have hired the firm to do more advanced reconnaissance work while gauging public opinion.

  

  According to WSJ, Premise is one of a growing number of companies that are straddling “the divide between consumer services and government surveillance and rely on the proliferation of mobile phones as a way to turn billions of devices into sensors that gather open-source information useful to government security services.”

  Premise’s CEO even hinted that the company had been tapped by foreign governments to help with setting policy about how to deal with “vaccine hesitancy”.

  “Data gained from our contributors helped inform government policy makers on how to best deal with vaccine hesitancy, susceptibility to foreign interference and misinformation in elections, as well as the location and nature of gang activity in Honduras,” Premise Chief Executive Officer Maury Blackman said. The company declined to name its clients, citing confidentiality.

  Premise launched in 2013 as a tool meant to gather data for use in international development work by governments and non-governmental organizations. In recent years, it has also forged ties to the American national-security establishment and highlighted its capability to serve as a surveillance tool, according to documents and interviews with former employees. As of 2019, the company’s marketing materials said it has 600K contributors operating in 43 countries, including global hot spots such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen.

  Federal records show Premise has received at least $5MM in payouts from the government since 2017 on military projects—including from contracts with the Air Force and the Army and as a subcontractor to other defense entities. The company’s key utility was, again, gathering information: It would use civilian users in Afghanistan and elsewhere to map out “key social structures such as mosques, banks and internet cafes; and covertly monitoring cell-tower and Wi-Fi signals in a 100-square kilometer area.”

  

  In a presentation prepared last year for the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Aghanistan, Premise shared some details about its global operation which showed that it’s mostly active outside the US.

  

   

  It also showed how its “users” stationed around Kabul helped it collect data that are valuable to the US and Afghan military.

  As the WSJ explained, data from Wi-Fi networks, cell towers and mobile devices could be valuable to the military for “situational awareness, target tracking and other intelligence purposes.”

  There is also tracking potential in having a distributed network of phones acting as sensors, and knowing the signal strength of nearby cell towers and Wi-Fi access points can be useful when trying to jam communications during military operations.

  Users of Premise’s data-collection app typically aren’t told for whom they are truly working. This is all laid out in its privacy policy, of course. The app currently assigns about five “tasks” per day to its active users in Afghanistan.

  When WSJ caught up with Afghani users of the app, they were told that the users were typically paid about 25 cents per task (about 20 Afghani). And that lately, some of the tasks had struck him as “potentially concerning.” Premises claims that none of its users have ever been harmed while completing tasks.

  In this way, many of the app’s users are effectively being used as unwitting spies for the military.

  But it’s just one more thing to look out for. Next time you’re traveling abroad and you see somebody taking a photo of a mosque or a bank, just remember, it might be part of an officially sanctioned intelligence operation.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 22:00

• China's Disturbing Nuclear Buildup
  China’s Disturbing Nuclear Buildup

  Authored by Richard Bitzinger via The Epoch Times,

  In recent summits of Western nations, two shots were fired over the bow of China.

  At the Group of Seven (G-7) forum held in Cornwall, England, in early June, the leading Western economic powers announced a new international infrastructure initiative, intended to draw lower-income nations away from China’s burgeoning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

  This action was quickly followed up by the NATO summit held in Brussels a few days later, which in its official communiqué issued a dark warning about China’s military modernization. For the first time, NATO singled out China for its “assertive behavior,” which it said presented “systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security.”

  In particular, NATO noted China’s nuclear arsenal, which it said was “rapidly expanding,” with “more warheads and a larger number of sophisticated delivery systems,” intended “to establish a nuclear triad” comprising land-, sea-, and air-based systems.

  

  So what is behind China’s current nuclear modernization efforts? In fact, it is more than just a quantitative and qualitative buildup; it has grave implications for how China is changing its fundamental attitude toward the role of nuclear weapons and under what circumstances it might “go nuclear.” More critically, it is likely that even the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not fully thought this out, which could be disastrous for all involved.

  For China, “going nuclear” was a major political, as well as technological and military, achievement. Beijing detonated its first atomic (fission-type) bomb in 1964, followed by the test of a thermonuclear (fusion-type) device three years later. Given the relatively backwards state of China’s defense science and technology base at the time, these feats, along with the launching of China’s first satellite in 1970, were a source of considerable national pride.

  

  A security guard stands next to models of Chinese rockets on display Beijing on Sept. 24, 2013. The Chinese regime is testing weapons that could soon endanger satellites in all orbits. (Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)

  Despite the success of its “two bombs and one satellite,” Beijing faced the problem of what to do with its new-found nuclear capacity. It could never hope to match the nuclear might of the United States or the USSR. Nevertheless, there had to be a strong strategic rationale for possessing—and possibly using—nuclear weapons.

  The answer was “minimum deterrence.” According to the doctrine of minimum deterrence, China need only possess a nuclear force capable of surviving and retaliating to an enemy’s first strike. This meant a limited but durable second-strike nuclear force that would deter nuclear blackmail and also be compatible with the defensive-oriented doctrine of People’s War.

  Consequently, for decades China’s nuclear force was small, typically on low alert, and based on a “no first use” (NFU) strategy. From the 1980s to the early 2000s, various Western estimates put China’s atomic arsenal at no more than 160 nuclear warheads, which placed it last among the declared “nuclear club,” which included the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, and France. Moreover, this was not really a strategic nuclear force: China still lacked long-range bombers or ballistic-missile-carrying submarines (save for one clunky Xia-class SSBN, which was so unusable it reportedly made only one deterrence patrol before being permanently docked). The bulk of China’s strategic deterrence consisted of just 20 or so DF-5A intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)—large, liquid-fueled behemoths that would take hours (if not days) to prep for launch, thus reducing chances for surprise attack or retaliation.

  Starting in the 1990s, the CCP refined its nuclear policy, putting greater stress on sufficiency and effectiveness in order to ensure that China would still be able to inflict a damaging retaliatory second strike. Nuclear forces were still limited in size, but increased emphasis was on the survivability and reliability of these forces.

  This new “dynamic minimum deterrence” initially meant an increase in the number of nuclear weapons, to perhaps 400 warheads. This strategy also entailed a significant expansion in the types of new delivery systems. In the first place, the number of ICBMs grew to around 55 to 65 missiles, most of them advanced, road-mobile and solid-fueled systems capable of hiding from enemy attacks as well as firing on short notice. The best of these are the DF-31A and DF-41, both of which are capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

  To this arsenal must be included dozens, if not hundreds, of nuclear-armed short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which could target Japan, Taiwan, and Guam.

  In addition, China finally acquired a reliable sea-based nuclear deterrent, with the acquisition of the Type-094 SSBN. Each Type-094 is armed with a dozen 4,600-mile-range JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). At least six Type-094 SSBNs have been launched, and Western observers expect the PLA Navy (PLAN) to eventually acquire 12 SSBNs in all.

  Finally, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) operates several aging but upgraded H-6 bombers, capable of dropping nuclear bombs or firing air-launched nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The PLAAF is currently developing a new long-range strategic bomber, which would almost certainly be stealthy and nuclear-capable.

  As China continues to build more and better strategic weapons—including multiple independently targetable (MIRVed) warheads and even hypersonic weapons—Beijing is close to perfecting an air-sea-land nuclear triad like that of the United States or Russia.

  China has demonstrated the ability to develop and build better and more nuclear weapons, along with an expanded array of delivery systems (SLBMs, road-mobile ICBMs, MIRVing, etc.). The question, therefore, is what does the CCP plan to do with this growing and increasingly sophisticated nuclear arsenal? In many respects, it goes far beyond “minimum deterrence” (and even “dynamic minimum deterrence”) and is instead beginning to look a lot like a first-strike capability.

  

  A Russian Kilo-class conventional submarine belonging to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) at the naval headquarters of the China North Sea Fleet in the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao on Aug. 2, 2000. The Chinese military may have made significant progress on its new submarine fleet, given recent media reports. (Goh Chai Hin/AFP/Getty Images)

  This is critical given potential changes in China’s traditional NFU policy. Philip Saunders of the U.S. National Defense University has recently noted that China could shift to a “launch-on-warning” posture that would put Chinese nuclear forces on a more unstable “first-strike” setting. In addition, China’s NFU policy has always been ill-defined. Paul Bracken of Yale University recently noted that even the CCP has not really thought through its nuclear strategy, arguing that “China’s declared nuclear doctrine doesn’t cover a wide range of possibilities beyond what it was narrowly written for.” This includes, he infers, the possibility of a war over Taiwan.

  This uncertainty about what Beijing actually wants to do with its nuclear forces, combined with the general atmosphere of either opacity or outright hostility on the part of Beijing and the CCP, is not a good recipe for stability. It makes it even more difficult to trust China regarding its overall strategic goals.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 21:40

• "I'm Totally Screwed": Western Digital Tells Customers To Unplug Web-Connected Hard Drives After Data Mysteriously Deleted
  “I’m Totally Screwed”: Western Digital Tells Customers To Unplug Web-Connected Hard Drives After Data Mysteriously Deleted

  Hard drive manufacturer Western Digital recommended that My Disk external hard drive owners unplug them from the internet until further notice, after a flood of customers complained in a support forum that all their data had been mysteriously deleted, according to Ars Technica.

  

  “I have a WD mybook live connected to my home LAN and worked fine for years,” wrote the person who started the thread. “I have just found that somehow all the data on it is gone today, while the directories seems there but empty. Previously the 2T volume was almost full but now it shows full capacity.”

  “All my data is gone too,” another user responded. “I am totally screwed without that data… years of it.“

  Multiple users reported that the data loss coincided with a factory reset that was performed on their devices. One person posted a log that showed unexplained behavior occurring on Wednesday:

  Jun 23 15:14:05 MyBookLive factoryRestore.sh: begin script:
  Jun 23 15:14:05 MyBookLive shutdown[24582]: shutting down for system reboot
  Jun 23 16:02:26 MyBookLive S15mountDataVolume.sh: begin script: start
  Jun 23 16:02:29 MyBookLive _: pkg: wd-nas
  Jun 23 16:02:30 MyBookLive _: pkg: networking-general
  Jun 23 16:02:30 MyBookLive _: pkg: apache-php-webdav
  Jun 23 16:02:31 MyBookLive _: pkg: date-time
  Jun 23 16:02:31 MyBookLive _: pkg: alerts
  Jun 23 16:02:31 MyBookLive logger: hostname=MyBookLive
  Jun 23 16:02:32 MyBookLive _: pkg: admin-rest-api

  “I believe this is the culprit of why this happens,” the person wrote. “No one was even home to use this drive at this time.” -Ars Technica

  While the standard My Book storage device connects to computers via USB, the My Book Live uses an ethernet cable to access the local network, from which owners can access their files remotely and make configuration changes through the Western Digital cloud. The company stopped supporting the product in 2015.

  In response to the forum thread, Western Digital advised customers to disconnect their My Book Live devices while the company investigates.

  The incident is under active investigation from Western Digital. We do not have any indications of a breach or compromise of Western Digital cloud services or systems.

  We have determined that some My Book Live devices have been compromised by a threat actor. In some cases, this compromise has led to a factory reset that appears to erase all data on the device. The My Book Live device received its final firmware update in 2015.

  At this time, we are recommending that customers disconnect their My Book Live devices from the Internet to protect their data on the device.

  We have issued the following statement to our customers and will provide updates to this thread when they are available: https://community.wd.com/t/action-required-on-my-book-live-and-my-book-live-duo/268147

   Ars Technica suggests that “Reading between the lines, Western Digital’s statement seems to be saying that customer accounts were individually compromised. The advice to unplug devices while the investigation continues is warranted, and users should follow it as soon as possible.”

  “It is very scary and devastating that someone can do factory restore on my drive without any permission granted from the end user,” wrote one user. “I need a remedy to this issue immediately as this is already incurring a great cost to me.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 21:20

• Are We Overdosing On "Hopium"?
  Are We Overdosing On “Hopium”?

  Authored by ‘Kratos’ via The Organic Prepper blog,

  I am a prepper. I became a prepper in large part because I am a “dangerous conspiracy extremist.” Why? Because I am one of those people who listens to what the power elite tell us they’re going to do, then take them at their word and prepare for it. Many people have been exposing this longer than I. However, I still put 13-plus years of my life into researching and exposing the globalist agenda. 

  Almost none of what happens today is a surprise to me because it’s been bragged about for generations. After many years of learning about their agendas and conspiracies, this is the world as I see it. So take it with as many grains of salt as you wish.

  

  But, it will all end soon, won’t it?

  As a prepper, a stoic view of reality is necessary to see reality for what it is at present. And it is essential to learn how it got to this point and predict what direction it will take in the future. We can then be adequately reactive and proactive in adapting and overcoming what is and what will happen.

  Overdosing on “hopium” or succumbing to normalcy bias can be detrimental to the point of suicide.

  Naturally, it would benefit us if rosy assessments of the current reality were accurate or confirmed in the end. No one, least of all me, wants to live on a giant slave planet where the masses of humanity are so inured, so helplessly dependent on the system, that they willfully submit to enslavement. Nor passively stand by while the population is culled by elites who believe they have the right to determine we are unworthy of life itself and all the inherent rights that come with it.

  Social media’s echo chambers magnify a statistically insignificant portion of the population speaking up and resisting. We comfort ourselves that this will all end soon if we expose the agenda to enough people.

  Strike now, while the iron is hot

  Many, such as the ordinarily great Larken Rose, claim the warp speed advancement of the globalist agenda signifies their panicking that humanity is awakening. Quite frankly, those claims are delusional and indicative of too much time spent inside social media’s echo chambers. Or, a cynical desire to make as much money as possible while the gettin’s still good.

  Those claims are also indicative of a steadfast refusal to believe the Establishment can carry out such conspiracies even though they’ve had a monopoly on creating and distributing fiat currency for over 100 years. And have, during that time, literally bought the entirety of society. If you want an ironclad example of that fact, consider how they just stole a general election. The Establishment (the courts, Congress, state legislatures, media, and everything in between) destroyed any attempt to expose the fraud or prosecute those responsible.

  The fact of the matter is, they’re moving quickly now because they’ve previously underestimated how firm their grasp is on the minds of humanity.

  All across America and the developed world, businesses were ordered to close

  I’m not sure if anyone can say what percentage or how many tens or even hundreds of thousands of small businesses shuttered under government orders and never opened again. Anyone who had to work, who didn’t have the luxury of sitting on their couch soaking up 24/7 news coverage while raking in far more in unemployment than they earned working, saw the hypocrisy of being forced to shut down. At the same time, Walmart and the big corporations were declared “essential” and remained open, yet they closed down anyway.

  We all knew if they and their customers had each others’ backs and said “NO” en masse, there would be nothing the government could do except pound sand.

  The heroes who did say no were quickly singled out to be viciously harassed, fined, and often destroyed. Whether the people believe the current scam du jour, their belief in authority, their identity as a “law-abiding citizen” is a yoke that will cripple them every time. Disobeying even the most vicious and unlawful edict is unthinkable to them.

  People will say no…until they don’t

  Government officials are coming under increased scrutiny for continuously moving the goalposts.

  • Just two weeks to flatten the curve.

  • We can go back to normal when we get the vaccine.

  • The vaccine is safe and effective, but you must remain locked down, social distance, and wear three masks.

  When does this end? Why must this go on? They cannot and will not answer because this is not about a virus. Yet when we are told we must lockdown again, especially when the triple mutant variants arise (which they’ve repeatedly bragged is coming – they’re such sages!), people will bend the knee. Again.

  As for the vaccine, it’s coming out in the mainstream that vaccine resistance is rampant. That would be good news on its face if not for what’s coming down the pipeline – vaccine passports and tracking. It is part of the agenda that you’ll be completely locked out of the Great Reset if you refuse the vaccine.

  They won’t be “mandatory” in that SWAT teams will accompany a doctor to your house to force you at gunpoint. You won’t have access to the new digital currency that is being developed. And, like a social security number, birth certificate, or driver’s license, employers will not hire you without up-to-date proof of vaccination.

  People will say no to the vaccine right up until they look around at everything they own, at their children, and see no alternative but to take the shots. At that point, it will be too late for counter-economic solutions like agorism and prepping.

  Your thoughts are not your own

  I’ve learned over these past 13 years that globalists have mastered the psychology of the human mind. They know us better than we know ourselves. Because not only do we not know ourselves, we don’t know we are being manipulated. We don’t know we are victims of generations of cumulative trauma-based mind control.

  Let me assure you: if you think you’re not mind-controlled, you definitely are.

  The globalists are not moving forward because they’re scared. They’re moving forward because the initial reaction to the scam was perfect. I believe COVID-19 was a test run. But it went so flawlessly, so swimmingly for them, that they decided to fast-track their plans. For example, the pandemic wargame known as SPARS 25-28 mirrors the present situation perfectly in all aspects. And, as its title suggests has been moved up five years (watch 2023!) Because why put off for tomorrow what you can accomplish today?

  Now is not the time to give up or give in

  What I witnessed in my hometown gave me no reason to hope that there is an awakening. On my social media accounts? Sure. Lots of people refusing masks, refusing vaccines, opposing the scam. But in the real world, mind control, as epitomized by Hitler’s maxim, repeat a lie often enough, and it becomes the truth, eventually broke them down. The peer pressure got to them. Even today, several weeks after the mask mandate was lifted in my state, probably two-thirds of people still voluntarily wear masks. They’re a fashion statement, after all, found on the end-shelves of every aisle of every store.

  The lesson here, as I see it, is this: do not give in to hope.

  There isn’t time. This is the endgame, the finish line, and many are acting as if the starting gun just went off. Fall on your sword for your friends and family if you wish. But you are almost certainly doomed to get sucked into the same black hole.

  The Reset button has been pushed, hell on earth has been unleashed

  And no one can un-push the button. 

  Even if they are aware of the scam, most people think they’ll say “no” and carry on with their lives. Those people have not been paying attention to what globalists have been saying for many decades now, much less this last year. (Follow the World Economic Forum’s tweets, and you can predict the future – they have that kind of control). Their words are now a reality – here, now.

  We had one final chance to stop it last year. But the mass closure of small businesses for months on end, which, again, we could have prevented if we all refused, along with one-third of all the money created by the Federal Reserve in its 108 year history made in the last year, was a crippling, deadly blow.

  As preppers, what must we do?

  If we do not succumb to delusion, we must adapt ourselves to the agenda. We must create our own Reset. The old world, that old life we knew, is gone. It’s been stolen from us. We miss the opportunity to “build back better” in our own lives if we cling to that which is dead and gone. If we are steadfast and resist the globalist reset, we must understand our actions’ consequences if we are ready to die on that hill. 

  Those who refuse and resist face two choices: be forced off-grid when the new currency becomes unavailable because we will need vaccines to work, bank, and shop. You will not be able to pay your mortgage and will lose your home. Not all of us are lucky in our family and friends. Especially post-Reset, when they may be facing the same struggles you are, or, worse, buy into the Reset and disavow you.

  Or we unplug from the technocratic slave matrix on our terms. I don’t know about you, but being at the mercy of others is not a place I want to be, and so obviously, I have chosen the latter. That is a subject for another time.

  As Eomer tells Aragorn in The Two Towers, “Look for your friends, but do not trust to hope. It has forsaken these lands.” It is a dark place to be, for sure. But many of us as preppers have long predicted these days, and they are here.

  They are here. Act accordingly.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 21:00

• Kyle Bass Slams Fed, Sees Inflation Everywhere He Looks
  Kyle Bass Slams Fed, Sees Inflation Everywhere He Looks

  With US stocks back at all-time highs as the market seemingly shrugged off the FOMC’s reaction to the latest inflation numbers, Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass returned to CNBC for an interview with the “Closing Bell” crew on Thursday, where he offered a dramatically different vision of the present economic scenario vis-a-vis inflation.

  

  In an interview where he expounded upon his claim that the US is already grappling with real inflation rates above 10%, the billionaire investor proclaimed that “in every single aspect of life, I see inflation.”

  “In every single aspect of life, i see deflation” – @neelkashkari https://t.co/pZin6xHtAo

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Why? Because during the past year and a half, the Fed has introduced more broad money into the American economy in the shortest time than we have seen at any point in American history.

  “I think look we’re going to see a short-term turn-down in inflation because the initial inflationary burst was enormous…this transitory comment may play out to be true for a short period of time but I hink Sarah when you look at the the money supply the broad money in the US system from 1980 to 2010 it it vacillated between 50% and 60% of GDP and post the global financial crisis it moved up from roughly 60% to 68% 69% of GDP now that we’re approaching 90 so in the one year period one and a half year period since COVID started we have introduced 34% more broad money in our system in the shortest time period in the history United States so we’re going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the fed continues to expand its balance sheet,” Bass said.

  Even as the financial press prattles on about the significance of the Fed finally starting to consider tapering its asset purchases, Bass believes that the central bank won’t be able to shrink its balance sheet so easily.

  “We’re going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet which I think it will,” Bass said.

  So, what can investors do to fight this “inflation monster”, as Bass colorfully described it. Well, he suggested they focus on hard assets like commodities and real estate, which BlackRock is already buying up in droves.

  Equities should “do fine”, Bass said, citing data purporting to show that equity prices keep up with between 95% and 88% of inflation over the long term (though that certainly doesn’t seem to fit the last decade).

  As for his assessment of inflation and its dramatic difference with the Fed’s view, Bass quipped: “Your bank account is the final determinant whether there is inflation or not,” he concluded, highlighting the higher prices consumers have seen for things like food and cars.”

  “If you’re in the market place you want to own commodities if you’re in the real world you want to own productive real estate you even want to buy rural land in front of major demographic moves in the US…I’d rather own hard assets than equities today because I think we’re only seeing just the beginning of population moves in the US.”

  Watch a clip from the interview below:

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 20:44

• 650 Troops To Stay In Afghanistan As US Intelligence Warns Of Taliban Takeover Within 6 Months
  650 Troops To Stay In Afghanistan As US Intelligence Warns Of Taliban Takeover Within 6 Months

  Anyone that’s been following US pronouncements on Afghanistan over the last many years should know what to expect by now: when Washington touts its latest “full exit” strategy, it’s likely to end in anything but. From the start of both Trump’s prior pullout efforts (which had during his last year in office been set for May 1st, now come and gone) as well as Biden’s current “out by Sept.11” final timetable, the Pentagon has simultaneously pronounced it will keep some level of sizeable security and ‘counterterror’ force on the ground. 

  For example in May defense officials were predicting that it might take a contingency of 600 Marines to permanently secure the sprawling US embassy complex in Kabul – which hardly seems like the full withdrawal being promised. The various “options” and their intense discussion have only increased, given this month Western media reports are full of predictions of just how fast Kabul is likely to fall to the Taliban after the US finally exits. According the The Wall Street Journal this week, US intelligence is now giving it six months – which many pundits say itself is an overly optimistic estimate. 

  “The U.S. intelligence community concluded last week that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after the American military withdrawal from the country is completed, according to officials with knowledge of the new assessment,” the report says.

  

  “American intelligence agencies revised their previously more optimistic estimates as the Taliban swept through northern Afghanistan last week, seizing dozens of districts and surrounding major cities,” WSJ continues. 

  This has further intensified debates surrounding whether the US will provide air support to Afghan national forces from neighboring countries – a scenario looking less and less likely after Biden last week ordered a significant drawdown of US military equipment from nearby Gulf countries in reflection of a major shift of US defense priorities, which will reportedly place greater emphasis on countering China and Russia. 

  It now looks like the US will go with the initial plan to keep a large security presence focused on the embassy and diplomatic compounds in Kabul, as The Associated Press reports Friday US officials are confirming that roughly 650 troops will stay in the Afghan capital.

  “In addition, several hundred additional American forces will remain at the Kabul airport, potentially until September, to assist Turkish troops providing security, as a temporary move until a more formal Turkey-led security operation is in place, the officials said,” according to the report. “Overall, officials said the U.S. expects to have American and coalition military command, its leadership and most troops out by July Fourth, or shortly after that, meeting an aspirational deadline that commanders developed months ago.”

  650 troops is a sizeable enough military footprint in the country to likely convince the Taliban and other insurgents that the occupation is only continuing, not ending. It’s also a big enough force that should this remnant US presence come under direct threat (and the latest US intelligence suggestion that Kabul will be overrun within six months of US exit is a clear indicator of that likelihood), the Pentagon wouldn’t hesitate to send additional security support and firepower, which would in the end perpetuate the very problem (of how to finally and fully exit) that the Sept.11 draw down date is meant to solve. 

  

  Meanwhile, at the start of this week Pentagon spokesman John Kirby suggested the US still has the option of slowing the pace of its Afghan draw down, amid recent heavy fighting and Taliban advances against the national army.

  “The situation in Afghanistan changes as the Taliban continue to conduct these attacks and to raid district centers as well as the violence, which is still too high,”” Kirby told a Monday press briefing. “If there needs to be changes made to the pace, or to the scope and scale of the retrograde, on any given day or in any given week, we want to maintain the flexibility to do that.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 20:40

• Surgeon Fired From College Of Medicine For Voicing Concerns About COVID Shots For Kids
  Surgeon Fired From College Of Medicine For Voicing Concerns About COVID Shots For Kids

  Via The Justice Center For Constitutional Freedom,

  The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms represents Dr. Francis Christian, Clinical Professor of General Surgery at the University of Saskatchewan and a practising surgeon in Saskatoon.

  Dr. Christian was called into a meeting today, suspended from all teaching responsibilities effective immediately, and fired from his position with the University of Saskatchewan as of September 2021.

  

  There is a recording of Dr. Christian’s meeting today between Dr. Christian and Dr. Preston Smith, the Dean of Medicine at the University of Saskatchewan, College of Medicine, Dr. Susan Shaw, the Chief Medical Officer of the Saskatchewan Health Authority, and Dr. Brian Ulmer, Head of the Department of Surgery at the Saskatchewan College of Medicine.

  In addition, the Justice Centre will represent Dr. Christian in his defence of a complaint that was made against him and an investigation by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Saskatchewan. The complaint objects to Dr. Christian having advocated for the informed consent of Covid vaccines for children.

  Dr. Christian has been a surgeon for more than 20 years and began working in Saskatoon in 2007. He was appointed Director of the Surgical Humanities Program and Director of Quality and Patient Safety in 2018 and co-founded the Surgical Humanities Program. Dr. Christian is also the Editor of the Journal of The Surgical Humanities.

  On June 17, Dr. Christian released a statement to over 200 doctors which contained his concerns regarding giving the Covid shots to children. In it he noted that he is pro-vaccine, and that he did not represent any group, the Saskatchewan Health Authority, or the University of Saskatchewan.

  “I speak to you directly as a physician, a surgeon, and a fellow human being.”

  Dr. Christian noted that the principle of informed consent was sacrosanct and noted that a patient should always be “fully aware of the risks of the medical intervention, the benefits of the intervention, and if any alternatives exist to the intervention.”

  “This should apply particularly to a new vaccine that has never before been tried in humans… before the vaccine is rolled out to children, both children and parents must know the risks of m-RNA vaccines,” he wrote.

  Dr. Christian expressed concern that he had not come across “a single vaccinated child or parent who has been adequately informed” about Covid vaccines for children.

  Among his points, he stated that:

  1. The m-RNA vaccine, is a new, experimental vaccine never used by humans before.

  2. The m-RNA vaccines have not been fully authorized by Health Canada or the US CDC, and are in fact under “interim authorization” in Canada and “emergency use authorization” in the US. He noted that “full vaccine approval takes several years and multiple safety considerations – this has not happened.”

  3. That in order to qualify for “emergency use authorization” there must be an emergency. While he said there is a strong case for vaccinating the elderly, the vulnerable and health care workers, he said, “Covid does not pose a threat to our kids. The risk of them dying of Covid is less than 0.003% – this is even less than the risk of them dying of the flu. There is no emergency in children.”

  4. Children do not readily transmit the Covid virus to adults.

  5. M-RNA vaccines have been “associated with several thousand deaths” in the Vaccine Adverse Reporting System in the US. “These appear to be unusual, compared to the total number of vaccines administered.” He called it a “strong signal that should not be ignored.”

  6. He noted that vaccines have already caused “serious medical problems for kids” worldwide, including “a real and significantly increased risk” of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart. Dr. Christian notes the German national vaccine agency and the UK vaccine agency are not recommending the vaccine for healthy children and teenagers.

  The Saskatchewan Health Authority/College of Medicine wrote a letter to Dr. Christian on June 21, 2021, alleging that they had “received information that you are engaging in activities designed to discourage and prevent children and adolescents from receiving Covid-19 vaccination contrary to the recommendations and pandemic-response efforts of Saskatchewan and Canadian public health authorities.”

  Dr. Christian’s concerns regarding underage Covid vaccinations are not isolated to him.  The US Centre for Disease Control had an “emergency meeting” today to discuss the growing cases of myocarditis (heart inflammation) in younger males after receiving the Covid-19 vaccines.

  The CDC released new data today that the risk of myocarditis after the Pfizer vaccine is at least 10 times the expected rate in 12 – 17 year old males and females. The German government has issued public guidance against vaccinating those under the age of 18.

  The World Health Organization posted an update to its website on Monday, June 21, which contained the statement in respect of advice for Covid-19 vaccination that “Children should not be vaccinated for the moment.” Within 24 hours, this guidance was withdrawn and new guidance was posted which stated that “Covid vaccines are safe for those over 18 years of age.”

  Dr. Christian says there is a large, growing “network of ethical, moral physicians and scientists” who are urging caution in recommending vaccines for all children without informed consent. He said, physicians must “always put their patients and humanity first.”

  Dr. Byram Bridle, a prominent immunologist at the University of Guelph with a sub-speciality in vaccinology, recently participated in a Press Conference on Parliament Hill on CPAC organized by MP Derek Sloan, where he discussed the censorship of scientists and physicians. Dr. Bridle expressed his safety concerns with vaccinating children with experimental MRNA vaccines.

  Justice Centre Litigation Director Jay Cameron also has concern over the growing censorship of medical professionals when it comes to questioning the government narrative on Covid.

  “We are seeing a clear pattern of highly competent and skilled medical doctors in very esteemed positions being taken down and censored or even fired, for practicing proper science and medicine,” says Mr. Cameron.

  The Justice Centre represented Dr. Chris Milburn in Nova Scotia, who faced professional disciplinary proceedings last year after a group of activists took exception to an opinion column he wrote in a local paper. The Justice Centre provided submissions to the College on Dr. Milburn’s behalf, defending the right of physicians to express their opinions on matters of policy in the public square and arguing that everyone is entitled to freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, as guaranteed by the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms – including doctors. The Justice Centre noted that attempting to have a doctor professionally disciplined for his opinions and commentary on matters of public interest amounts to bullying and intimidation for speaking out against the government.

  Last week, Dr. Milburn also faced punishment for speaking out with his concerns about public health policies, as he was removed from his position as the Head of Emergency for the eastern zone with the Nova Scotia Health Authority. In an unusual twist, a petition has been started to have Dr. Milburn replace Dr. Strang as the province’s Chief Medical Officer.

  “Censoring and punishing scientists and doctors for freely voicing their concerns is arrogant, oppressive and profoundly unscientific”, states Mr. Cameron.

  “Both the western world and the idea of scientific inquiry itself is built to a large extent on the principles of freedom of thought and speech. Medicine and patient safety can only regress when dogma and an elitist orthodoxy, such as that imposed by the Saskatchewan College of Medicine, punishes doctors for voicing concerns,” Mr. Cameron concludes.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 20:20

• Bank Guard In India Shoots Patron For Entering Without Face Mask
  Bank Guard In India Shoots Patron For Entering Without Face Mask

  If after the first year of pandemic lockdowns and examples of social distancing extremes across the globe didn’t provide enough levels of COVID-induced crazy and bizarre incidents, here’s a new one out of India which appears truly unprecedented: a bank customer was reportedly shot by a security guard for not wearing a face mask in accord with the bank’s rules and a nationwide mandate.

  The disturbing incident happened Friday according to the widespread emerging reports in Indian media, which details that a “security guard fired at a customer for not wearing a mask and entering a bank during the lunch hour.” One news anchor for the popular English-language Times Now broadcast reacted by calling it “absolutely shocking” during a live show…

  #NewsAlert | #UttarPradesh: Bank guard shoots a customer on his leg for reportedly not wearing a mask in #Bareilly.

  Amir Haque with details. pic.twitter.com/0XHJkUMqzx

  — TIMES NOW (@TimesNow) June 25, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Local reports further say the victim was initially stopped by the security guard for either not having a mask or not wearing it properly which led to the confrontation. It reportedly happened in Bareilly, located in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. India has strictly mandated masks in public places throughout the pandemic.

  Police describe that the guard may have reacted in a “fit of anger” after the customer refused his orders.

  Authorities further confirmed the guard has been placed under arrest, while the wounded customer – who was shot in the leg and seriously injured – was taken to the hospital. 

  

  Footage of the aftermath showed the victim in a pool of blood on the ground while the guard stood over him berating him, handgun still clasped to his side. 

  More Indian news coverage of the incident (warning: graphic)…

  Local police later announced: “The injured who is a railway employee was taken to hospital and is out of danger. The guard has been taken into custody and a probe is underway,” according to a statement.

  While since the start of the global pandemic there have been some violent encounters between police and people resisting attempts to impose social distancing or other COVID-related measures in various places, including confrontations that actually ended in gunfire, this is the first such example we can recall of a security guard coldly using deadly force on a bank patron for simply entering without a mask.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 20:00

• Macleod: The Fed Is Trapped Between A 'Keep Inflating' Rock & A 'Collapsing Dollar Confidence' Hard Place
  Macleod: The Fed Is Trapped Between A ‘Keep Inflating’ Rock & A ‘Collapsing Dollar Confidence’ Hard Place

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  “The Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place: either it keeps inflating or the whole confidence-based valuation of financial assets collapses. Either it raises interest rates or the dollar collapses.”

  There has been occasional speculation about what happens to asset values in a hyperinflationary collapse. The basis of the question has recently become suddenly relevant, because consumption in America and Britain has been stimulated with unprecedented monetary inflation aimed at consumers, and been met with limited supply, leading to strongly rising prices across the board.

  In short, unless urgent action is taken, a hyperinflationary outcome has become a possibility. The only alternative is to stop monetary inflation and thereby deliberately crash the global economy.

  Along with other central banks, the Fed is trapped. We will assume that rather than face this reality, governments and central banks will continue with their money printing until both their fiat currencies and financial systems face collapse. All precedent points to this choice.

  That being the case, an examination of how a collapse in the purchasing powers of fiat currencies is likely to affect asset and consumer prices is timely. This article draws on theories of money as well as empirical evidence in search of some answers. The answers will surprise and discomfort many of its readers.

  

  Introduction

  It is a common perception that in inflationary times financial and tangible assets afford protection from monetary debasement. Instead of rapidly escalating, so long as the consequences of inflation are contained as they have been since the early 1980s, non-fixed interest investments have been good inflation hedges. But what happens to asset prices if inflation is not contained and escalates?

  To answer this question, we must first define what we mean by contained inflation. Interest rates normally put a brake on the loss of a currency’s purchasing power, limiting inflation to a cycle of credit. In other words, the market must be prepared to operate and allow interest rates to function as compensation for the consequences of monetary and credit inflation. Clearly, this condition does not apply today because central banks supress interest and bond rates as well as any evidence of the bank credit cycle. Furthermore, both foreign holders of a currency and its domestic users must be satisfied with monetary conditions to broadly retain their exposure to it. In the case of the dollar, which is the currency that really matters to us all, that has been undoubtedly true so far. But in these times of rising monetary inflation, there will come a point when the lack of interest compensation for currency debasement will begin to overtly undermine the dollar’s purchasing power, and in the first instance this matters particularly to foreign holders.

  It is in this context that a deeper examination of the relationship between assets and the accelerated rate of issuance of state currencies is pertinent. That the rate of monetary expansion has accelerated is no secret; but so far, the probable effects on the purchasing power of the dollar, and also for other currencies aligned with it, have been ignored by investors. Central bankers have been coy on the subject, and by fiddling with the price inflation averages statisticians have buried the evidence. The suppression of the evidence on prices has been an important factor in what is effectively a concerted campaign of disinformation about inflation.

  While these conditions have built up for decades, so far, non-fixed interest asset values have still afforded protection for investors’ capital. For the middle classes, the values of their homes, often geared through mortgage borrowing, have risen substantially. The values of their portfolios and pension plans have also benefited hugely. For them, these conditions have been extremely beneficial, which is why central banks have latched onto the wealth effect and are now directing new money into stock markets at unprecedented rates through quantitative easing.

  The current state of play for both financial and non-financial assets has led not only to rising asset values but is now fundamental to the economic confidence upon which central bank policies entirely depend. But the problem with confidence as a policy is that it assumes that the crowd must be permanently bullish and that reality must never intervene. Policies backed on little more than perpetual hope must fail.

  By admitting for the first time that it might lose tight control of interest rates because of rising consumer prices, last week’s FOMC statement has raised fundamental questions about bullish assumptions. For investors, the smoky clouds of hopium began to clear, revealing an FOMC that might lose control over markets. The initial reaction, which is all we have seen so far, is that short term dollar interest rates rose slightly, discounting a possible rise in interest rates being brought forward. Longer-term rates declined slightly, reflecting the anticipated deflationary effect. And the dollar rallied against other currencies, whose central banks are yet to admit that prices in their bailiwicks are likely to rise more than previously expected.

  The initial effect on equity, commodity and precious metal prices was to drive them all lower. We will come on to commodities and precious metals later in this article, but equities will hold our attention for now. They have risen to current levels mainly on the back of the Fed’s $120bn monthly QE, targeted at pension funds and insurance corporations. QE encourages these institutions to increase their investment risk profiles from holding US Treasury and agency debt, substituting them with corporate debt and equities.

  Part of the investment chatter is about the need for the Fed to taper QE to address monetary inflation, which oversimplifies the situation. If equities are declining into a new bear market, the Fed will stand ready to increase QE to support equities and cap bond yields, because that is the policy: the planners cannot afford to see investor confidence decline and evaporate. We saw this in mid-March 2020, when in response to a decline in the S&P 500 index of fully one third from mid-February, the Fed cut interest rates to zero and increased QE to $120bn monthly.

  If the S&P is on the verge of another move downwards, the rescue starts with interest rates at zero and QE at $120bn monthly. Interest rates cannot be reduced from here. We can rule out negative rates on the basis that that would collapse the $4.5 trillion money market fund business, as well as put the whole commodity complex into permanent backwardation from the money side. If anything, interest rates should rise because of the rapidly escalating threat of a fall in the dollar’s purchasing power. That leaves QE. The Fed can do one or both of two things. It can buy directly into index-tracking ETFs, bypassing pension and insurance funds following the policy of the Bank of Japan, and it can increase the monthly quantities from $120bn.

  The obvious flaw in this solution is that the way to stop inflation is to cease inflating the quantity of money, not increase it, which is what QE amounts to. But the Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place: either it keeps inflating or the whole confidence-based valuation of financial assets collapses. Either it raises interest rates or the dollar collapses.

  We are at a critical point for equities, illustrated by peak investment sentiment, and there is no better indicator for sentiment than the extent to which investors are prepared to borrow to increase their profits on the bull tack. This is the message from Figure 1, which is clearly shouting extreme greed and a total absence of fear of losses, always associated with an extreme top and an inevitable collapse to follow.

  

  Bullish sentiment is probably higher than we have ever known in our lifetimes, and surely, is similar to the time when bellhops, shoeshine and lift boys were the source of investment inspiration for our grandparents. Perhaps unwittingly, the Fed chose this moment to thow a scintilla of doubt into investors’ minds.

  Monetary and market policies from here

  The lessons from the past have taught us that central bankers only notice a bear market threat belatedly, so that if the stock market is topping out, it will have to fall significantly before the Fed acts to support it.

  Last time was just over a year ago, when from 20 February 2021 the S&P 500 index fell by one third in a month, since when it has almost doubled to recent highs, following the Fed’s intervention. Figure 1 above illustrates how this rescue has provoked an extraordinary madness of the investing classes, and consequently any loss of bullish momentum threatens to collapse the market. On this basis alone and putting aside subjective valuation factors, equities appear to have significant downside. That being the case, foreigners’ holdings of US equities of $11.2 trillion which are only there for the profits will almost certainly be reduced both by valuation and liquidation, adding fuel to the bear’s bonfire. Some of the selling will also flee the currency, putting pressure on the dollar as well, because with foreign ownership of dollars estimated at $31 trillion ($24.7 trillion long term securities plus $6.3 trillion short-term investments and bank deposits), this is a record level of exposure for foreigners, amounting fully to 150% of US GDP. US holdings of foreign securities offsetting foreign interests in the dollar are less than half this figure, with the majority invested in equities.

  If the Fed decides to intervene and bolster confidence in the equity market it will face conflicts in its task. With interest rates anchored at the zero bound, they cannot be further reduced. The only substantive option is to increase the scale and effectiveness of QE. Put crudely, support for bond and equity markets will have to be more blatant. But printing money to support financial assets is more inflationary, adding fuel to the inflationary fire. For the Fed to get away with it will require it to persuade the least Keynesian of crowds, foreigners overloaded with dollars, that it can ramp securities markets without undermining the currency. And there is a further problem not being foreseen or given sufficient credence to by monetary planners: the state of the economy itself.

  For decades monetary authorities have turned a blind eye to the impoverishing effects on the non-financial private sector of the transfer of wealth through currency debasement. Since the Lehman crisis, independent statistical analysis by John Williams at Shadowstats.com has estimated the dollar to have lost purchasing power at anything between seven and ten per cent annually —now running at over 11%. The biannual analysis by the Chapwood Index (before covid made it impractical to gather data) put the post-Lehman figures closer to 10%. Deflating nominal GDP by these realistic numbers instead of a goal-sought 2% informs us that the US economy has been in a continual slump at least since the Lehman crisis — if not before.

  By only seeing the excess money being spent by the government and not accounting for its source — the debasement of the currency — an illusion of prosperity has been created. While the man in the street has only been able to make ends meet by supplementing his income with debt, governments, their agencies, and the investing establishment seem blissfully unaware of the accumulating consequences of continual currency debasement.

  An upward kick to the general level of prices now comes from the breaking of the link between consumption and production, the consequence of monetary and economic policies which turned a blind eye to the workings of the division of labour, commonly expressed as Say’s law. By subsidising unemployment and making employment less efficient from an employer’s point of view, production has been removed from the domestic market progressively, and imports have replaced domestic production. And with massive increases in the US Government’s budget deficits in prospect, the US trade deficit will also increase substantially from current levels. Unless, as seems very unlikely, American consumers collectively decide to increase their savings to help finance the budget deficit, rather than continue spending.

  Therefore, a looming bear market for US equities will be accompanied by a further and sharply deteriorating balance of payments, against a background of the dollar already being over-owned by foreigners. The only short-term offset would be a sharp deterioration of the dollar’s exchange rate. And what should concern us as much as anything is the position of the Fed, which has ignored the consequences of tying the futures of the stock market and the dollar together, supporting the former by inflating the latter.

  The outlook for fiat currencies

  The current situation for the dollar is the conclusion of decades of monetary inflation. The dollar’s purchasing power was already falling when it was driven off all remaining connection to gold in 1971. Since then, when the $35 per ounce link was broken, the dollar has lost over 98% of its purchasing power — measured in gold. This elision of values has not become a public issue so far. But clearly, the acceleration in the expansion of the quantity of money in circulation since the Lehman failure, and the further acceleration of it in March 2020 and the abandonment of all monetary discipline in order to support financial markets will almost certainly, eventually, call into question the dollar’s role as a medium of exchange. Unless something is done, the loss of all its purchasing power is becoming a credible outcome.

  That “something” is a question to be answered. Clearly, the inflation threat can only be removed if money-printing is stopped. But how do monetary policy planners make this assessment, when they appear to not even understand the link between the quantity of money and prices? How can they pursue an anti-inflation policy if they are not prepared to relinquish control over interest rates, and hand it back to the general public for their collective assessment? We are asking monetary ignorance to be rapidly re-educated to embrace common sense logic and act against the mandate the state has sought and obtained from its electorate.

  It will not require a mathematical link between the quantity of money and its purchasing power to reach this unhappy state. With nothing other than fragile confidence in it as backing, foreign actors who do not require to own it in more than nominal quantities can simply reject it. But alternative fiat currencies are also unattractive because they are all linked to the dollar through its reserve status, and the major currencies are also being inflated by their central banks. Figure 2 illustrates the degree to which they have inflated since the position before the Lehman crisis.

  

  In broad terms, the expansion of central bank balance sheets can be taken as a measure of currency debasement. But the alternatives to the Fed and the Bank of England probably have limited appeal to international capital.

  For all the reasons stated above, the relative attractions of tangible property, commodities and precious metals as stores of value may be beginning to increase relative to financial assets, even though the values of the former non-financial categories have already increased in the last year. And for those who suspect that fiat currencies are on course for an accelerated rate of debasement, some of them could be emerging as better stores of value than non-fixed interest financial assets.

  But by selling down the dollar, foreigners are likely to undermine the entire fiat complex. The links between all fiat currencies and their financial markets will ensure that a substantial fall for the dollar’s purchasing power coupled with a collapse in US equities will infect all currencies and all markets. Precious metal and commodity prices are set to rise in all currencies, and bond yields rise while stock markets decline. It is both fiat currencies and financial asset values that are under jointly under threat.

  Asset values in a currency collapse

  History, as well as logic, tells us that the best performing asset in a currency collapse is sound money, because that is what eventually replaces state-issued currencies. The basic qualifications for sound money are that it is a medium of exchange commonly accepted by its users, and that its quantity and use are decided by them and not their governments. For millennia, the sound money to which the transacting public always returns is metallic, principally gold, silver and copper. Trusted substitutes are not only acceptable but make for greater convenience. If a government is to operate an effective gold standard, it must issue a currency which can be substituted for coins at the public’s option and for it to hold sufficient gold reserves for its gold substitutes to be credible.

  A fuller description of a functioning gold standard is beyond the scope of this article. What concerns us here is the relative purchasing power of precious metals to fiat currencies during a fiat currency collapse. It is initially conditioned by the fact that fiat currencies are widely held while physical gold, silver or their credible substitutes are not. And when it comes to substitutes, not one central bank offers gold conversion terms for its currency. Gold and silver backed ETFs do not constitute ownership of the relevant metal and being priced in fiat their shares should be viewed as fiat investments.

  For these reasons of relatively limited ownership of metallic money, a collapse of fiat currencies leads directly to an increase in purchasing power for gold and silver in terms of exchangeable goods and assets —virtually everything falls in price against them. This is confirmed by empirical evidence. Stefan Zweig, the Austrian author who lived through the European inflations in the early 1920s, recounted how $100 could buy six-story family homes in a fashionable street in Berlin — at the prevailing gold standard of $20.67 to the dollar, this was the equivalent of less than five ounces of gold.

  There is a crucial difference between Berlin in 1922-23 and the situation that is evolving today. Foreign currencies acting as credible gold substitutes existed. And partly due to Germany’s booming export trade and partly due to capital inflows taking advantage of the currency collapse, dollars and other currencies were imported in large quantities. None of this is available today, which in a currency collapse is bound to raise the purchasing power of scarce sound money —gold and silver — even more than experienced in Germany nearly a century ago.

  There is the further disadvantage of investing in physical property to escape currency debasement, and that is the cost of maintenance and the impossibility of rents keeping pace with a currency decline. Under these circumstances, residential property becomes a liability, and not an asset.

  Earlier in this article, it was stated that the conditions of contained monetary inflations have fuelled property prices sufficiently to offer some recompense for a currency’s debasement. That benefit disappears under hyperinflationary conditions.

  But measured in depreciating currency, there is still a value for a home’s utility. The factor setting it is the desire for it relative to other goods and the availability of property finance. In the conditions of a currency collapse, the increase of the quantity in circulation is likely to be small relative to loss of purchasing power (this phenomenon is further explained below). A million-dollar house might not increase in its exchangeable value by much measured in declining currency because of this limitation. Furthermore, what small monetary resources that exist are likely to be redirected to human subsistence, the acquisition of food and energy vital to life, whose price potentials are also commented on below.

  While initially acting as a source of funds, financial assets are likely to become valueless dying with fiat. Unlike the world at the time of the European inflations of the 1920s, the ubiquity of the currency collapse means that the foreign interests that bought assets on the cheap with sound and pseudo-sound money, thereby giving them value, will be almost entirely absent.

  The rise in interest rates that accompanies a fiat currency collapse will only stop with a Volker-style increase to 20% if the currency is stabilised. While we all desperately wish for such a backstop to work again, the conditions today appear to rule it out. Having tied their currencies to financial asset values, the Fed and other central banks would be required to free them from this obligation and take responsibility for deliberately triggering a market and economic crash that would make the 1930s look like a teddy-bear’s picnic.

  We must accept that allowing interest rates to rise without limitation is a de facto acceptance of market economics, which was just possible in 1980, but 40 years of intervention and ever tightening regulation since then makes it inconceivable today. And as a marker of political will —or rather lack of it — social and moral conditions have deteriorated to the point where politicians, institutions and even businesses are unable to challenge “wokeness”. As an economic indicator, humanity has fallen into a similar gutter of behavioural economics as seen in Germany in the great inflation. Stefan Zweig again:

  “Even the Rome of Suetonius had never known such orgies as the pervert balls of Berlin, where hundreds of men costumed as women and hundreds of women costumed as men danced under the benevolent eyes of the police. In the collapse of all values a kind of madness gained hold particularly in the bourgeois circles which until then had been unshakable in their probity.”

  For sure, things are different today. But the loss of moral compass is a little observed indication of the true state of monetary and economic affairs.

  Consumer prices

  A collapse in its purchasing power will not be accompanied by an offsetting increase in the quantity of money. This unexpected state of affairs stems from a rejection by the public of fiat currency as a medium of exchange in the later stages of its collapse. It was for this reason that between April 1923 and the following November, Germany’s paper marks in circulation increased from 6,546 X 1012 to 400.3 X 1018, an increase of 61,152 times. At the same time, prices measured in paper marks increased from 5,825 to the gold mark, to 522.3 X 1012, or by 90 billion times.[v] Therefore, the limitation of an increase in the quantity of money will not stop prices rising far faster, or described for greater comprehension, the purchasing power of a fiat currency falling.

  Admittedly, the example above taken from Germany in 1923 covers the time when the paper mark finally collapsed, having been rejected by the public as money. It is hoped that the US Treasury will stabilise the situation for the dollar before it finally collapses by deploying its gold reserves, said to be over 8,000 tonnes. Assuming its gold exists, the US Treasury can introduce a credible gold standard before the dollar’s purchasing power disappears entirely. However, as its purchasing power accelerates in its fall, it is sensible to assume that dollar prices of consumer essentials will rise more quickly than the expansion of the quantity of dollars available would suggest. This will lead to significant hardship for almost everyone living in America. And to the extent that other currencies will suffer a similar fate, to their users in other jurisdictions as well.

  Under these conditions, consumer demand will be restricted to the essentials to sustain life. Businesses producing non-essentials, particularly services, will cease trading, and if fiat currencies sink to nothing, even producers of essential goods will cease trading as well, at least until a means of exchange returns. Not only will the lack of supplies of goods drive the purchasing power of the dollar even lower, but economic production will collapse entirely.

  Summary and conclusion

  This article commenced its thesis by pointing to the evidence of the overvaluation of financial assets, stoked by central banks issuing currency for the explicit purpose of ensuring they continue to rise in value. And it later pointed out the similarities between today’s wokeness with the deterioration of public morality in the Germany of 1923 as a social indicator of the state of monetary and economic conditions. Measured in these terms, we are not yet in the state of debauchery recorded in Berlin at the time the paper mark collapsed, but undoubtedly, we are edging closer to it.

  Much has yet to transpire on our hyperinflationary journey. Foreign disinvestment from an over-owned dollar has yet to begin. But we can now sense that price inflation is going to be the destabilising factor. Central banks have chosen to downplay the effect, but the combination of a global logistical foul-up, sharply higher commodity and raw material prices and a lack of available and employable labour is leading to a lack of product supply to satisfy post-covid consumer demand.

  And while the authorities and mainstream media have trumpeted the restoration of economic growth —more accurately it is merely a reflection of the inflation of money supply — the destruction of small and medium-sized businesses away from financial centres has gone unreported. Covid was the coup de grace for small businesses, which had managed to live through a rolling slump, the true annual deflator being several times greater than that of the CPI, dating back at least to the Lehman failure.

  Central banks have covered up their failures by inflating financial markets, in the manner of John Law in France 301 years ago. Law printed unbacked livres to keep the shares in his Mississippi venture rising. His bubble collapsed, driving the livre into worthlessness in only six months. The lesson forgotten, central banks, led by the Fed, are repeating John Law’s experiment on a global scale.

  It matters not whether markets are at their peak and the bubble is about to burst. There are strong indications, particularly the $900bn of debt leverage behind financial markets, that we are within a gnat’s whisker of the market’s peak. The bubble will burst that is for sure. And when it does, $11 trillion of foreign owned equities will seek an panicked exit, not just from the deflating investment bubble, but from the dollar as well. Interest rates will then be forced to rise as markets take control of everything away from the Fed.

  The moment the bubble begins to deflate, investors will awaken from their hopium-induced slumber and events are likely to develop with unexpected rapidity. We must hope that governments back their currencies credibly with gold before they become completely worthless.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 19:40

• Senators Tell Biden Hong Kong Newspaper's Forced Closure Requires Mandatory Sanctions
  Senators Tell Biden Hong Kong Newspaper’s Forced Closure Requires Mandatory Sanctions

  Following Wednesday’s unprecedented crackdown against Hong Kong media, specifically the forced permanent closure of Hong Kong’s 26-year long running Apple Daily newspaper under the far-reaching China-backed ‘national security law’, two leading US senators are urging the White House to unleash more sanctions in response to the crackdown.

  In a letter to President Biden on Thursday Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa), ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, and Sen. Chris Van Hollen, (D-Md), a committee member, wrote that the recently passed Hong Kong Autonomy Act requires the US secretary of state to identify and take action against any foreign person or foreign businesses “materially contributing” to the “inability of the people of Hong Kong to enjoy the freedom of assembly, speech, press, or independent rule of law.”

  

  The legislation in effect since it was passed last year requires mandatory sanctions on those identified to Congress as suppressing these freedoms in Hong Kong.

  The pro-democracy tabloid, owned by incarcerated media tycoon Jimmy Lai, will close because its assets have  been frozen and many of its staff arrested after some 500 police raided their offices, making it impossible for the paper to continue publishing.

  The paper’s owner, Lai, is facing charges of violating the new Beijing-imposed national security law. He has remained in custody even as the US and UK have protested that they are “deeply concerned” about his condition.

  “It seems very likely that the breathtaking crackdown on Jimmy Lai and Apple Daily involves numerous foreign persons to whom Section 5 of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act applies,” the Senators’ letter stated.

  Big round of applause inside Apple Daily newsroom as executive editor-in-chief Lam Man-chung sent off all pages to the printing press for the last time. For @SCMPNews pic.twitter.com/0lXPjercYf

  — Phila Siu (Bobby) (@phila_siu) June 23, 2021

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  “We urge your administration to comprehensively enforce the Hong Kong Autonomy Act in the immediate wake of the injustice imposed upon Jimmy Lai and the forced closure of Apple Daily,” it said.

  The Senators wrote further: “These orders solidify the impression of many that the rule of law is no more in Hong Kong.”

  Beijing must stop targeting the press. Independent media play an invaluable role in resilient and prosperous societies. Journalism is not a crime. https://t.co/tbVvpqbr62

  — Ned Price (@StateDeptSpox) June 24, 2021

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  Indeed as we reported earlier in the week, police went so far as to declare the paper’s newsroom a “crime scene”, barring workers from entering, in the first case of the new national security law being used against journalists. And likely more such hugely alarming instances are on the horizon. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 19:20

• Parents Sue LA School District Over COVID Mandates For Children
  Parents Sue LA School District Over COVID Mandates For Children

  Authored by Drew Van Voorhis via The Epoch Times,

  The Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) is being sued by parents concerned about mask mandates and obligatory COVID-19 testing for the coming school year.

  

  The lawsuit, filed June 22 by Southern California law firm Tyler and Bursch LLP and Children’s Health Defense California, seeks to prohibit the LAUSD and county officials from imposing COVID-19 related mandates on healthy children wishing to return to in-person instruction.

  The lawsuit is the first of its kind filed in California federal court related to students being targeted with “illegal and unnecessary COVID mandates,” the law firm said.

  Defendants named in the suit include LAUSD superintendent Austin Beutner, all seven LAUSD board members, and Los Angeles County public health officers Dr. Muntu Davis and Dr. Barbara Ferrer.

  The lawsuit contends that healthy school children are being forced to submit to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, and are required to download Microsoft’s “Daily Pass” which it said collects and disseminates private health data. Students will also be required to wear masks on campus.

  “[The] right to a public education guaranteed to [the] plaintiffs’ minor children by the California Constitution cannot be made contingent upon plaintiffs’ consent to defendants violating other rights of their children,” the lawsuit said, adding that the parents are seeking an injunction to allow the children to attend physical schooling again immediately.

  “[LAUSD] instituted the Daily Pass, which was basically a mandate to have a [PCR] test before you could come on campus, and a bunch of other invasive stuff that we feel should only be done by a medical doctor and interpreted by a medical doctor,” Alix Mayer, president of Children’s Health Defense California, told The Epoch Times.

  “Otherwise, who is practicing medicine without a license? The school is, because they can’t interpret that test, and a medical doctor has to interpret the test in the context of the symptoms.

  “There’s also the issue with a huge rate of false positives on those tests. And so a lot of children have to stay home rather than going to school based on the false positives and the false positives are happening at a very high rate.”

  According to LAUSD’s website, the Daily Pass was released Feb. 22, with the district calling it “the first comprehensive system in the nation that coordinates health checks, COVID tests and vaccinations all in one simple, easy-to-use tool.”

  Each day, students will be asked to log into the app to answer daily health questions such as whether they’re experiencing a fever, dry cough, shortness of breath, or loss of taste or smell.

  Students will be required to get a COVID-19 test within seven days before returning to campus and submit the negative result to the app. In announcing the Daily Pass, superintendent Beutner praised the technology.

  “The Daily Pass sets the highest standard possible for school safety,” Beutner said in a press release.

  “MERV-13 upgraded air filters in every school, COVID testing for all students and staff at least every week and now the Daily Pass—Los Angeles Unified is proud to lead the nation in creating the safest possible school environment.”

  After the required steps are completed, the Daily Pass will generate a unique QR code for each student and staff member that will authorize entry to a specific LAUSD location for that day only. When an individual arrives on campus, they will have their QR code scanned by a faculty member and their temperature taken, which must be less than 100 degrees.

  In addition, LAUSD said anonymized data from the Daily Pass will be used in the district’s research and health care collaborators to provide insights to create safe school environments.

  “Microsoft and its unknown partners, agents, and assigns will be privy to students’ private health information, including genetic information gathered through the mandatory PCR testing,” the lawsuit said.

  “Parents, therefore, have legitimate concerns that their children’s personal health data, genetic material, and other private information will be circulated to other corporate and government entities without their explicit consent since they are being coerced into giving up their rights under federal and state law … to be able to send their children to school.”

  It continues, “Simply put, they are being forced to choose between their children’s right to an education and their children’s right to medical privacy and bodily autonomy. This is no choice at all.”

  Mayer said that many of the effects of the protocols are borne most on traditionally disadvantaged communities.

  “If [children] don’t want to get tested, then they have to learn from home,” she said. 

  “But kids who grew up in families without a ton of money, don’t necessarily have a good computer, they don’t necessarily have good bandwidth, and they might not even have a quiet room in the house where they can learn, and so it’s really putting them at a major disadvantage.”

  Asked for comment, an LAUSD spokesperson told The Epoch Times, “We have not been served with the suit, and we do not comment on pending litigation. However, the safety and well-being of our students remains our top priority.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 19:00

• Nevada Sheriff's Group Says NSA Sitting On 'Every Call, Text, Chat And Banking Transaction' For 'Elite Pedos And Wall Street Criminals'
  Nevada Sheriff’s Group Says NSA Sitting On ‘Every Call, Text, Chat And Banking Transaction’ For ‘Elite Pedos And Wall Street Criminals’

  Residents and local law enforcement from two rural Nevada counties have decided to become members of a growing movement that believes sheriffs have the final say on the constitutionality of any given law.

  

  On Sunday, hundreds gathered in Elko City Park, where the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association (CSPOA) presented a plaque to county commissioners to mark their membership with the group, according to the Elko Daily Free Press.

  Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association founder Richard Mack was the main speaker at the event. The group says “law enforcement powers held by the sheriff supersede those of any agent, officer, elected official or employee from any level of government when in the jurisdiction of the county.”

  Lander County Manager Bartolo “Bert” Ramos emceed the event, which was also expected to feature Joey Gilbert, a former professional boxer from Reno who plans to run for governor as a Republican. Ramos said Gilbert was unable to attend due to a family obligation.

  Dressed in Minuteman garb and sitting on a horse that traveled to Washington, D.C., for the Grass March in support of ranchers, Elko attorney Travis Gerber held a 13-star flag and asked the crowd if they knew how many democracies existed in the world in 1776.

  “There were zero democracies,” he said. “And today, because of this flag and what it stands for, most of the world is free.” –Elko Daily Free Press

  According to Steele, the biggest threats facing America include Wall Street criminals and elite pedophiles.

  “The National Security Agency has every single email, cell call, text, game chat and banking transaction for every traitor, every elite pedophile and every Wall Street criminal and every corrupt government official at the local, state and federal levels,” he said to applause. “And I remind you that no army of lawyers are going to be able to stand up to an Army Ranger battalion with fixed bayonets. We’re coming.“

  “I will tell you with absolute certainty that the thing that Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff fear most is not jail, but us releasing their 10 most treasonous phone calls to their own public,” he continued. “They will be torn limb from limb on their own streets.”

  

  ‘White Supremacy has no place‘

  Founder Richard Mack – who successfully sued the US Government over background check provisions in the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act condemned racism and the IRS during his speech.

  “White Supremacy has no place in a free society,” he said, adding “There is no exception. You cannot say ‘freedom for me but not for thee.”

  Mack added that the IRS is “the most criminal organization in American history – the Gestapo of America,” adding “You know what I train sheriffs to do? [referring to IRS agents] Kick ‘em the hell out of your county.”

  Next, Mack called the sheriffs of Lander, Eureka and Elko counties to speak, where Elko’s Sheriff Aitor Narvaiza described meeting Mack in Battle Mountain, after which he took the proposal to join the CSPOA to his county’s commissioners.

  “Sheriff Mack said here just a minute ago that we’re gonna take some heat,” said Narvaiza. “Well, ladies and gentlemen, I’ve already been taking some heat but I don’t really care. I fight for you guys, I fight for the people of Elko County and the people who elected me to fight for them.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 18:40

• Biden's Real Crime Against The Economy
  Biden’s Real Crime Against The Economy

  Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

  I try to keep politics out of my economic analyses, and my approach is non-partisan. But sometimes I can’t avoid it because political policies can have significant economic impacts. Today is one of those times.

  One of Joe Biden’s first acts as President was to kill construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. This is a pipeline that would bring oil from the tar sands of Alberta, Canada to the Midwest United States. From there it would be moved through other pipelines or refined and distributed to gas stations and industrial users in America.

  

  Biden’s decision was destructive for a long list of reasons.

  The immediate impact was to kill about 10,000 high-paying union jobs with benefits in construction, transportation and expert services. The ripple effects were even greater. Once a pipe delivery operation is killed, the trucking company and pipe manufacturer lay off more personnel and those workers stop spending at local restaurants and so on.

  But killing the pipeline accomplishes nothing from an environmental standpoint. The decision to end the pipeline is pointless because the oil still moves out of Alberta. In the absence of a pipeline, the oil moves by railroad tanker cars on rail lines owned by Warren Buffett.

  Pipelines Are Better for the Environment

  It’s just that the railroad uses more energy and has higher CO2 emissions than a pipeline. If you cared about the environment, you’d favor a pipeline over railroads. But opponents don’t really care about the environment, they just want to shut down the oil and gas industries completely.

  Shutting the pipeline is a step in that direction. Claims about local environmental damage and crossing Native American tribal areas were just feel-good red herrings. The goal was always just to kill the pipeline. Mission accomplished. Now, the Biden administration may have done more damage than thought at first.

  Construction on the pipeline had been halted in the past by the Obama administration only to be started-up again by President Trump. The worksites and equipment were mothballed until the green light was turned on again. Not this time. The primary company backing the pipeline has announced they are throwing in the towel and terminating the project for good.

  The science of climate change is highly uncertain. There’s some evidence that the world is cooling, not warming. There’s no conclusive evidence that man-made CO2 emissions are the primary cause of warming if there is any. CO2 is a trace gas of little impact except as plant food.

  Climate change is real, but it happens over hundreds, sometimes thousands of years for reasons that science does not completely understand.

  Real Climate Change

  I lived for ten years on Long Island Sound, a beautiful body of water where locals enjoy fishing, sailing, swimming and other water sports. It has a rocky coast because 10,000 years ago it was a glacier (A glacier pushes rocks out of its way and they accumulate along the edges in a formation called a moraine).

  Going from a glacier to a waterway is the result of real climate change, but the process took ten millennia, not ten years. The idea that cities will be inundated by rising oceans in ten years, a stock claim of climate alarmists, is nonsense. (By the way, the alarmists made the same claim twenty years ago, fifteen years ago, and ten years ago and they’ve been dead wrong every time; they’re still wrong).

  Climate changes due to sunspot cycles, shifting ocean currents, volcanic activity and extreme geological events. Still, the climate change narrative persists because it provides political cover for global government, global taxation, open borders and other facets of the globalist agenda.

  That might sound conspiratorial to some, but it isn’t. It’s just the way these globalist elites operate. I’ve been watching them closely for years and know how the game is played.

  Propaganda

  They know they can’t impose global solutions unless they concoct a global “problem” and climate change as the alarmists define it fills the bill perfectly.

  This hidden agenda is revealed in their writings, which discuss the need to “frame” the issue, for example. But why do you have to “frame” anything if the story is true?

  Framing is a form of propaganda, the climate alarmist’s favorite tool. You don’t need to frame a narrative if you have good science on your side. The facts will speak for themselves. So, you can be sure you’re being fed propaganda, which is.

  The best advice is to ignore propaganda, stick to real science (when you can find it) and make long-term investment decisions that don’t rely on false predictions of climate doom.

  But, there’s money to be made from climate alarmism.

  ExxonMobil recently had their annual meeting. A small hedge fund named Engine No. 1, with only 0.02% of the ExxonMobil stock, proposed four new directors of whom each has a “green” background with experience in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.

  Normally, a dissident slate like that would have no chance. But, Engine No. 1 managed to recruit major institutions such as BlackRock to join their cause. With other major investors joining in, the green directors won three board seats outright. Eight sitting directors and the CEO retained their seats.

  Three incumbent directors got the boot, something practically unprecedented in major corporations absent a hostile takeover. What’s the impetus behind this?

  Follow the Money

  The public story is that ExxonMobil was too slow in adapting its business plans to a world of solar and wind power and electric vehicles. The reality is more complicated.

  There’s good reason to believe that solar and wind will never provide more than a small percentage of the power needed to run America. ExxonMobil is an oil and gas exploration and distribution company. They should stick to what they do best and let others build windmills. Oil and gas, nuclear and hydro-electric will power the country for decades to come or longer.

  So, why did Larry Fink of BlackRock climb on the green train?

  It turns out he’s promoting so-called ESG funds (for Environmental, Social and Governance) with higher fees to customers. Fink and others are just promoters using the green banner to make more money at investor expense.

  What happened in the board room at ExxonMobil is an example of how private corporate resources are being hijacked by activists and do-gooder institutional investors to pursue social policy goals with little or no scientific evidence to back them up.

  Research shows ESG funds and related ETFs do not outperform major index funds.

  Fink just needed to bolster his ESG credentials and he did so at ExxonMobil’s expense. Concern about the environment is minimal or incidental. It turns out that Fink and the others are only in it for the money.

  That’s the kind of green they really care about.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 18:20

• Japanese Lawmaker Scolds Toshiba Investors, Says Activists "Only Think About Selling High"
  Japanese Lawmaker Scolds Toshiba Investors, Says Activists “Only Think About Selling High”

  It appears as though Japanese government officials are interested in trying their hand in activist investing.

  At least, that’s the conclusion we drew after one senior member of Japan’s ruling party spoke out against activist investors in Toshiba, accusing them of looking for short-term profits. The lawmaker, Akira Amari, also called for more regulation to protect investors’ “economic security” in the case of activists, Reuters reported.

  It’s certainly an interesting target for Amari to defend, as Toshiba has been under fire due to numerous accounting scandals dating all the way back to 2015. The company has also faced “massive writedowns” for its U.S. nuclear business and the sale of its semiconductor unit, the report notes.

  Amari is a former economy minister and an influential lawmaker in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Amari’s criticism follows an investigation this month which revealed that “Toshiba’s management colluded with the government to put pressure on foreign activist investors to support the management.”

  The investigation was commissioned by Toshiba shareholders. 

  

  “There should be strict monitoring. We need to watch carefully so that Japan’s security is not threatened,” Amari told Reuters, calling it “not right” that Toshiba was reliant on short-term activist investors. 

  Amari commented: “Activist investors only think about selling high.”

  Yeah, come to think of it, investors should really think about driving the price of stock they own lower, and then selling, from now on.

  Meanwhile, Toshiba has said that it would change its board director nominees and that two of its audit committee members would step down. The investigation “alleged [the board] failed to take action even when it became aware of Toshiba’s attempt to prevent shareholders from exercising their rights.”

  Japan put forth new foreign ownership rules in 2020 with the specific aim of protecting companies that are critical to the country’s national security. Amari has said that Japanese investors, not foreign activists, should have stepped up to invest in Toshiba and save the company. 

  Perhaps someone should inform Amari that there very likely may have been no appetite for shares of the scandal-ridden company from within its home country.

  But that would require explaining reality to a politician, which is too tall of a task to even contemplate. As such, we digress…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 06/25/2021 – 18:00

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