- Sweden's Victimized Children
Sweden’s Victimized Children
Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,
The number of children who rob other children has increased by 100% in only four years, according to a new study by Swedish police about reported violent crimes in which children under the age of 15 are both the victims and the perpetrators.
In 2016, there were 1,178 robberies against children under 18 years of age. In 2019, the number had increased to 2,484. The number of violent crimes where the suspect is a child under 15 years of age has also gone up dramatically: In 2015, there were 6,359 reported violent crimes where the suspect was a child under 15. In 2019, that number had increased to 8,719 reported violent crimes.
The crimes involve “Violence to the head, kicks, gun threats, burning with lighters, threats to kill, threats to bomb the school, stabbings with food knives, bites and children who have been scratched, dragged, thrown and locked up by other children”.
The lowest age of a suspected perpetrator was seven. There has also been an increasing number of girl gangs. One girl was violently assaulted by a gang of five girls who kicked her, beat her and spat at her. The girl said she thought she was going to die.
“It’s ordinary children who are robbed on their way to and from school, they are called ‘whore’ and told that they’re going to get a Glock in the mouth. I think we are letting the kids down”, said regional police chief Carin Götblad.
Crimes committed by children under 15 years of age are not investigated by the police; they are left to the social workers. “When we get [such cases], we send [them] to [the social workers] and then it goes a little under the radar. This is not something we have discussed before,” said Götblad, who criticized municipalities for not taking crimes committed by children seriously enough.
“I think there is an inherent reflex to ignore it because it’s not very nice, but then we who are professionals need to look at this in particular and raise awareness. I am terribly worried about all vulnerable victims of crime,” Götblad said.
“The suspects are also victims in some sense, but this is still something we have to deal with, that children also commit crimes”.
According to Götblad, parents are afraid to report the crimes committed by other children against their children.
“Parents are afraid of threats and harassment of their children”, said Götblad. “It’s really important to report, [but] at the same time I can’t say I don’t understand their fear”.
The parents may not only be motivated by fear, but by an unwillingness — or inability — of Swedish authorities to help them and ensure the safety of their children — a basic duty of authorities everywhere.
In August 2019, 13-year-old Filip and his family had no other choice than to move from the city of Uppsala after a gang of minors made his life there unbearable. He was abused, robbed and his life was threatened by gangs, with Swedish authorities telling him not to report it to the police as this would make things “worse” for him. The police even told the family that moving was their best option.
When authorities fail to honor their responsibilities, lawlessness results. This is visible in all of Swedish society, not only with respect to children.
Recently, children found explosive material hidden in a sandbox in the Sorgenfri elementary school in the city of Malmö, according to Sveriges Radio. It is still unclear who put them there.
Last year there were 257 reports of explosions — including attempted explosions — an increase of 59% compared to 2018, according to SVT Nyheter. Yet, only seven people have been convicted for any of those 257 crimes. In 2020, at least 10 explosions have already taken place.
In addition to the rise in crimes against children and the rise in explosions, the number of reported rapes against women also increased by 10% in 2019, compared to the previous year, with a total of 4,670 reported rapes. The number of reported rapes against men has also soared by 35% to 260 reported cases. Reported rapes against children remained unchanged at around 3,400.
As previously noted by Gatestone Institute, this summer, a private foundation, Det Goda Samhället (“The Good Society”) published a report based on statistics from Swedish authorities. The report showed:
“For the first time now, more crimes – in absolute terms – are committed by persons of foreign background than by persons of Swedish origin…
The most crime-prone population subgroup are people born [in Sweden] to two foreign-born parents”.
According to Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, however, Sweden’s problems with gang violence would supposedly have been the same without immigration. When asked in November 2019 about the links between mass immigration and gang violence, Löfven refused any connection, while indirectly acknowledging, in a somewhat self-contradictory manner, that gang violence is an imported problem:
“We didn’t use to have this kind of [gang] violence then but now we have it… The segregation is because there is too low employment and too high unemployment in these areas. But that would have been the same regardless of who had lived there. If you would put people born in Sweden in the same conditions, you would get the same result.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 02/27/2020 – 02:00 - "It's Crazy" – Pandemic Potential Crushes 'Chinatowns' Worldwide
“It’s Crazy” – Pandemic Potential Crushes ‘Chinatowns’ Worldwide
Discrimination against China and Chinese people have erupted since the Covid-19 outbreak in January. Anxieties are high as many are avoiding Chinatowns across the world for fear, they might contract the deadly virus.
From Australia to New York City to Toronto to England to San Francisco, Chinatowns in many regions of the world have transformed into ghost towns. We noted this phenomenon last week.
Lily Zhou, 39, who owns a Shanghai-style restaurant in Australia’s Chinatown, told Bloomberg her food sales had crashed 70% since late January, which is around the time the virus started making headlines. She said her operation can withstand another few months of low traffic, and then after that, she would have to close down.
At 99 Favor Taste in Manhattan, store manager Echo Wu said traffic volume has plunged by a third since the virus started making headlines. Wu said depressed sales could begin impacting the long-term outlook for the restaurant. He believes people are irrational, and the media has drummed up Sinophobia.
“They may have a bias toward Chinese restaurants now,” He said. “I hope people can be more reasonable. After all, there are no cases in town yet.”
Dinner time in Chinatown and the restaurants are near empty! What’s going on?
There are no confirmed cases of #coronavirus in NYC, but just the fear of it is sending customers into a panic. Merchants in lower Manhattan, Brooklyn and Flushing are suffering.@abc7ny pic.twitter.com/ipRTkgBxc8
— Lucy Yang (@LucyYang7) February 11, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The Rol San Restaurant in Toronto’s Chinatown has seen sales slump by at least 30% in the last month. Bloomberg asked the manager if the virus is driving Sinophobia, he replied: “Of course.”
Other restaurants in Toronto’s Chinatown have experienced a slowdown in patrons. Streets are bare, and a nearby supermarket to Rol San has seen traffic halved since the end of last month.
Chinatown in Manchester, England, has seen a 40% decline in its customer base, many of which are Chinese students. “There are fewer visitors, fewer customers. They’re really, really suffering — at the moment we haven’t come up with any solution yet,” Raymond Chan of the local business association said.
As for the oldest and most established Chinatowns in the US, which is in San Francisco, the streets are deserted as people avoid the area for fear of contracting the virus. Henry Chen, 56, owner of the AA Bakery & Cafe on Stockton Street, said his business fell 30% since the virus outbreak in China and confirmed US cases started to tick higher earlier this month. “There are fewer people on the street,” he said. “Lunch, dinner, breakfast, there is no business.”
The plunge in traffic to Western Chinatowns is nothing compared to paralysis that has developed in China’s economy. More than 700 million people are in lockdown in dozens of towns, manufacturing hubs are shuttered, and retail stores remain closed.
However, in Sydney’s Lower North Shore, and Eastwood in the north-west, which has a sizeable Chinese population, stores are thriving and selling out of face masks.
“It is crazy!” the Phoenix health and beauty store assistant manager Ruby Han told Bloomberg, referring to the demand for virus masks, hand sanitizers, and alcohol swabs.
“It’s like every 10 minutes people will come to check — ‘Do you have some masks? Do you have some masks?'” she said. “To be honest, we can’t handle it because the demand is just too high.”
We noted last month that worldwide searches for ‘virus mask’ erupted. Then detailed how a global run on masks was starting.
AuMake International Ltd. said online sales for masks have exploded: “This is a once in a decade, or two decades, event,” said Executive Chairman Keong Chan. “We know with Chinese New Year, we anticipate a fairly decent amount of sales, and it is way more than that. I can only conclude that the virus is a huge part of that.”
The same is being said at a pharmacy inside the Dragon City Mall in Toronto: “We probably used to sell about 100 masks a week, now we sell north of 700” despite lower foot traffic, said pharmacist Timothy Tran, 57.
With the virus not yet under control, restaurant owners in many Chinatowns across the world could soon shutter their doors as Sinophobia fears have resulted in plunging sales.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 02/27/2020 – 01:00 - The Looming Financial Nightmare: So Much For Living The American Dream
The Looming Financial Nightmare: So Much For Living The American Dream
Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
– Frédéric Bastiat, French economist
Let’s talk numbers, shall we?
The national debt (the amount the federal government has borrowed over the years and must pay back) is $23 trillion and growing.
The amount this country owes is now greater than its gross national product (all the products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the citizens). We’re paying more than $270 billion just in interest on that public debt annually. And the top two foreign countries who “own” our debt are China and Japan.
The national deficit (the difference between what the government spends and the revenue it takes in) is projected to surpass $1 trillion every year for the next 10 years.
The United States spends more on foreign aid than any other nation ($50 billion in 2017 alone). More than 150 countries around the world receive U.S. taxpayer-funded assistance, with most of the funds going to the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Meanwhile, almost 60% of Americans are so financially strapped that they don’t have even $500 in savings and nothing whatsoever put away for retirement, and yet they are being forced to pay for government programs that do little to enhance or advance their lives.
Folks, if you haven’t figured it out yet, we’re not living the American dream.
We’re living a financial nightmare.
The U.S. government—and that includes the current administration—is spending money it doesn’t have on programs it can’t afford, and “we the taxpayers” are the ones who will pay for it.
As financial analyst Kristin Tate explains, “When the government has its debt bill come due, all of us will be on the hook.” It’s happened before: during the European debt crisis, Cypress seized private funds from its citizens’ bank accounts to cover its debts, with those who had been careful to save their pennies forced to relinquish between 40% to 60% of their assets.
Could it happen here? Could the government actually seize private funds for its own gain?
Look around you.
It’s already happening.
In the eyes of the government, “we the people, the voters, the consumers, and the taxpayers” are little more than pocketbooks waiting to be picked.
Consider: The government can seize your home and your car (which you’ve bought and paid for) over nonpayment of taxes. Government agents can freeze and seize your bank accounts and other valuables if they merely “suspect” wrongdoing. And the IRS insists on getting the first cut of your salary to pay for government programs over which you have no say.
We have no real say in how the government runs, or how our taxpayer funds are used, but we’re being forced to pay through the nose, anyhow.
We have no real say, but that doesn’t prevent the government from fleecing us at every turn and forcing us to pay for endless wars that do more to fund the military industrial complex than protect us, pork barrel projects that produce little to nothing, and a police state that serves only to imprison us within its walls.
If you have no choice, no voice, and no real options when it comes to the government’s claims on your property and your money, you’re not free.
It wasn’t always this way, of course.
Early Americans went to war over the inalienable rights described by philosopher John Locke as the natural rights of life, liberty and property.
It didn’t take long, however—a hundred years, in fact—before the American government was laying claim to the citizenry’s property by levying taxes to pay for the Civil War. As the New York Times reports, “Widespread resistance led to its repeal in 1872.”
Determined to claim some of the citizenry’s wealth for its own uses, the government reinstituted the income tax in 1894. Charles Pollock challenged the tax as unconstitutional, and the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in his favor. Pollock’s victory was relatively short-lived. Members of Congress—united in their determination to tax the American people’s income—worked together to adopt a constitutional amendment to overrule the Pollock decision.
On the eve of World War I, in 1913, Congress instituted a permanent income tax by way of the 16th Amendment to the Constitution and the Revenue Act of 1913. Under the Revenue Act, individuals with income exceeding $3,000 could be taxed starting at 1% up to 7% for incomes exceeding $500,000.
It’s all gone downhill from there.
Unsurprisingly, the government has used its tax powers to advance its own imperialistic agendas and the courts have repeatedly upheld the government’s power to penalize or jail those who refused to pay their taxes.
Irwin A. Schiff was one of the nation’s most vocal tax protesters. He spent a good portion of his life arguing that the income tax was unconstitutional, and he put his wallet where his conscience was: Schiff stopped paying federal taxes in 1974.
Schiff paid the price for his resistance, too: he served three separate prison terms (more than 10 years in all) over his refusal to pay taxes. He died at the age of 87 serving a 14-year prison term. As constitutional activist Robert L. Schulz noted in Schiff’s obituary, “In a society where there is so much fear of government, and in particular of the I.R.S., [Schiff] was probably the most influential educator regarding the illegal and unconstitutional operation and enforcement of the Internal Revenue Code. It’s very hard to speak to power, but he did, and he paid a very heavy price.”
It’s still hard to speak to power, and those who do are still paying a very heavy price.
All the while the government continues to do whatever it likes—levy taxes, rack up debt, spend outrageously and irresponsibly—with little thought for the plight of its citizens.
To top it all off, all of those wars the U.S. is so eager to fight abroad are being waged with borrowed funds. As The Atlantic reports, “For 15 years now, the United States has been putting these wars on a credit card… U.S. leaders are essentially bankrolling the wars with debt, in the form of purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by U.S.-based entities like pension funds and state and local governments, and by countries like China and Japan.”
If Americans managed their personal finances the way the government mismanages the nation’s finances, we’d all be in debtors’ prison by now.
Still, the government remains unrepentant, unfazed and undeterred in its money grabs.
While we’re struggling to get by, and making tough decisions about how to spend what little money actually makes it into our pockets after the federal, state and local governments take their share (this doesn’t include the stealth taxes imposed through tolls, fines and other fiscal penalties), the police state is spending our hard-earned tax dollars to further entrench its powers and entrap its citizens.
For instance, American taxpayers have been forced to shell out more than $5.6 trillion since 9/11 for the military industrial complex’s costly, endless so-called “war on terrorism.”
That translates to roughly $23,000 per taxpayer to wage wars abroad, occupy foreign countries, provide financial aid to foreign allies, and fill the pockets of defense contractors and grease the hands of corrupt foreign dignitaries.
Mind you, that staggering $6 trillion is only a portion of what the Pentagon spends on America’s military empire.
That price tag keeps growing, too.
In this way, the military industrial complex will get even richer, and the American taxpayer will be forced to shell out even more funds for programs that do little to enhance our lives, ensure our happiness and well-being, or secure our freedoms.
As Dwight D. Eisenhower warned in a 1953 speech:
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. This is, I repeat, the best way of life to be found on the road the world has been taking. This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron. […] Is there no other way the world may live?
This is still no way of life.
Yet it’s not just the government’s endless wars that are bleeding us dry.
We’re also being forced to shell out money for surveillance systems to track our movements, money to further militarize our already militarized police, money to allow the government to raid our homes and bank accounts, money to fund schools where our kids learn nothing about freedom and everything about how to comply, and on and on.
Are you getting the picture yet?
The government isn’t taking our money to make our lives better. Just take a look at the nation’s failing infrastructure, and you’ll see how little is being spent on programs that advance the common good.
We’re being robbed blind so the governmental elite can get richer.
This is nothing less than financial tyranny.
“We the people” have become the new, permanent underclass in America.
It’s tempting to say that there’s little we can do about it, except that’s not quite accurate.
There are a few things we can do (demand transparency, reject cronyism and graft, insist on fair pricing and honest accounting methods, call a halt to incentive-driven government programs that prioritize profits over people), but it will require that “we the people” stop playing politics and stand united against the politicians and corporate interests who have turned our government and economy into a pay-to-play exercise in fascism.
We’ve become so invested in identity politics that label us based on our political leanings that we’ve lost sight of the one label that unites us: we’re all Americans.
The powers-that-be want to pit us against one another. They want us to adopt an “us versus them” mindset that keeps us powerless and divided.
Trust me, the only “us versus them” that matters anymore is “we the people” against the police state.
We’re all in the same boat, folks, and there’s only one real life preserver: that’s the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
The Constitution starts with those three powerful words: “We the people.”
The message is this: there is power in our numbers.
That remains our greatest strength in the face of a governmental elite that continues to ride roughshod over the populace. It remains our greatest defense against a government that has claimed for itself unlimited power over the purse (taxpayer funds) and the sword (military might).
This holds true whether you’re talking about health care, war spending, or the American police state.
While we’re on the subject, do me a favor and don’t let yourself be fooled into believing that the next crop of political saviors will be any different from their predecessors. They all talk big when they’re running for office, and when they get elected, they spend big at our expense.
As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, this is how the middle classes, who fuel the nation’s economy and fund the government’s programs, get screwed repeatedly.
George Harrison, who would have been 77 this year, summed up this outrageous state of affairs in his song Taxman:
If you drive a car, I’ll tax the street,
If you try to sit, I’ll tax your seat.
If you get too cold I’ll tax the heat,
If you take a walk, I’ll tax your feet.
Don’t ask me what I want it for
If you don’t want to pay some more
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman.
Now my advice for those who die
Declare the pennies on your eyes
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman
And you’re working for no one but me.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 02/27/2020 – 00:05 - Thousands Of US Troops Return To Saudi Base After 17-Year Absence To "Deter Iran"
Thousands Of US Troops Return To Saudi Base After 17-Year Absence To “Deter Iran”
After a nearly 17 year absence, US troops have returned Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base. The last time the base, which lies about 60 miles outside of Riyadh, saw an American presence was in 2003, after which the troops moved to Qatar.
The American troop surge into the gulf region to curtail Iran continues even as the world is focused on the coronavirus pandemic, which appears to be spreading in the Middle East.
While the Pentagon focuses on “deterring Iran,” the Islamic Republic is busy dealing with a very different and more immediately devastating threat. Coronavirus has killed 19 Iranians among 139 confirmed to be infected, as we reported earlier, and one lawmaker has claimed that the true death toll is actually much higher.
An F-22 Raptor at Prince Sultan Air Base, via World Defense. The prior US abandonment of the base was in large part because the US soldiers stationed in the strict Islamic kingdom became a “huge recruiting device for al Qaida,” according to then-Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz. In the decade prior it had been a key base for US forces starting after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
“We face a thinking enemy that is playing a real regional conflict for keeps, and they’re very good,” Gen. John Walker, the commander of the 378th Air Expeditionary Wing at the base, told The Wall Street Journal of the return of some 2,500 US troops to the base.
They will reportedly man Patriot missile batteries stationed there, and F-15 fighter jets will operate out of the air base.
Despite the kingdom’s US-supplied anti-air defenses appearing to have failed during the Sept.14 drone and missile attack allegedly out of Yemen, US defense officials now say they’re confident in Patriot missile systems’ ability to intercept any inbound threats.
Prince Sultan Air Base. Image source: The Wall Street Journal According to the WSJ:
U.S. defense officials now say they have shored up Saudi air defenses to the extent that they could prevent an airstrike like the one in September, thanks in part to the deployment of four American Patriot missile batteries in Saudi Arabia, including two stationed at Prince Sultan. Yet defense officials acknowledge that Patriot missiles, which cost millions of dollars, are an expensive tool to parry cheaper cruise missiles or drones.
But there remains the question of whether they can defend against smaller “drone swarms” — given that as the report notes the Patriots were designed to protect against more sophisticated missiles. Yemen’s Houthis, for example, would likely deploy both primitive or locally made, as well as possibly more advanced Iranian-supplied rockets and drones.
Meanwhile, infrastructure at the newly reestablished Prince Sultan Air Base appears rudimentary at this point: “At the moment, the American encampment at Prince Sultan remains a basic outpost. The Saudis have built a road to service the American section of the base, while the Americans are installing electricity for new tents, and replacing some tents with trailers,” the WSJ observes.
* * *
But again, as Washington builds up forces in the Middle East, it could be the exact wrong time for such a surge, also given Iran is surely preoccupied with more pressing matters:
Coronavirus in the Middle East: A country by country guide https://t.co/qCWIR298ff pic.twitter.com/KwishV69l1
— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) February 25, 2020
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 23:45 - Russiagate: The Toxic Gift That Keeps On Giving
Russiagate: The Toxic Gift That Keeps On Giving
Authored by Kollibri Terre Sonnenblume via Counterpunch.rog,
All smears are boomerang smears. That is why anyone worth a damn does not engage in it. That goes for the Russia-Gaters, the left/right smears on Gabbard, the years of left/right smears on Assange, the attacks on the Green Party and now the Russia narrative attacks on Sanders. Falling into line with the secret police will not save anyone. Red Scares target dissenters and promote war. Isn’t the history clear enough?”
– Richard Moser
The despicable exhuming of “Russia!” to smear Sanders recently smacks of desperation and dishonesty.
Of course, the role played by the preposterous Russiagate conspiracy theory has always been the same: to be a distraction from issues that really matter. At best, it makes a mountain out of molehill. At worst, it’s straight up political psy-op.
For those just tuning in, a re-cap:
In 2016, Wikileaks released a cache of emails from a Democratic National Committee (DNC) server. The electronic correspondence revealed numerous unsavory and unethical activities, among them that the party had been rigging the primary process in favor of Hillary Clinton and against Bernie Sanders from the beginning, and that the Clinton campaign was deceptively funneling money from state parties into her national coffers. Various details of these and other shady endeavors were confirmed by other sources, including Donna Brazille, a party chairperson who personally leaked CNN debate questions to Clinton before the event, and ended up fessing up to it later.
Given the graft-ridden history of US politics, none of this was particularly grievous, honestly speaking, but honestly speaking about it was the last thing the DNC leadership wanted to do, so, with the cooperation of much of the corporate media, they aimed their considerable firepower against Wikileaks and its founder, Julian Assange. That’s what’s called “shooting the messenger.”
Clinton had already made it clear that it was her policy to up US antagonism against Russia, so it wasn’t long before that nation was accused of “hacking” the DNC servers and turning the trove over to Wikileaks in order to hurt Clinton and thereby help Trump. Never mind that the most credible evidence pointed to an inside job—a leak, not a hack—with the responsible party therefore being some US American, not a Russian. Also never mind that claiming the information would negatively affect Clinton was up front admitting that it was incriminating.
Not about to let something as minor as facts or actual culpability get in the way, the DNC and their media allies pushed the “Russia!” narrative hard, especially after Clinton’s election day loss—anything to avoid admitting their own mistakes, such as the lack of campaigning or get-out-the-vote efforts in the key “swing” states that Trump narrowly won. Over the course of the next few months, one shrill accusation after another was blared in screaming headlines, only to be quietly walked back within a day or a few. But accuracy was never important; the goal was to create an impression: that the aberration of Trump could only be explained by the nefarious meddling of those pesky Russkies, not something more mundane and far more likely such as good old fashioned voter suppression. Roundly ignored was the work of investigative journalist Greg Palast in detailing just such malfeasance on a widespread basis—including 60,000 votes not counted in Democrat stronghold Detroit, in a state that Trump won by less than 11,000 votes.
But the cooperation of the corporate media was not enough. Non-corporate, independent media—which could call attention to the truth—needed to be squashed as well. Here the internet giants, such as Google, YouTube and Facebook, patriotically stepped up and began censoring outlets and authors across the political spectrum, both by de-platforming them and by burying them in the noise with algorithms. The excuse was fighting so-called “fake news.” Many well-known leftist websites experienced double-digit percentage declines in readership when these new policies were applied. Nor have the restrictions been lifted since then; rather they have been constantly honed, and the reach of many alternative voices continues to be eroded. It’s all been very Orwellian.
The “Russia!” narrative seemed to fizzle out after former FBI Director Robert Mueller’s investigation failed to turn up more than a few dubious crumbs. Are we supposed to believe the election was swung by a Russian troll farm purchasing $100,000 in Facebook ads, only some of which were actually political? If you’re willing to buy that, I’ve got a bridge for sale in Brooklyn…
In the meantime, the Trump administration had been executing a no-holds-barred attack on virtually every environmental and safety regulation of the last fifty years—including those pertaining to clean air, clean water, and endangered species—with virtually no news coverage or pushback. These are actions with very real consequences, potentially including extinction. Is it possible that some species of plants or animals might die from this planet because the DNC and the corporate media chose to focus on a conspiracy theory instead of the very real policies of the Trump administration? Yes, and that makes me livid.
These policy changes have still not received the attention they deserve, by the way, because “Russia!” was followed by “Impeachment!” and now “Primaries!”
What if every social media post about “Russia!” had instead focused on climate change? Or the opening of public lands to resource extraction? Or the gutting of the National Environmental Policy Act? Most people probably don’t even know what that last one is, which is sad. These are issues of immense importance, but they’ve gotten totally short shrift.
And this is where it’s not just about the DNC and their corporate media stooges: it’s about all the people who fell for it and helped spread it around; the people who were not merely gullible, but who were eager to lap up whatever they were served and spit it out again on command; the people for whom “America” was already “great” and who were shocked by Trump’s popularity.
I wasn’t shocked. I’m from Nebraska, and though I was as surprised as anyone that Trump squeaked through on election night, I was not mystified about his appeal. I didn’t need a fairy tale to explain his following. Watching him give his victory speech, I was like, “Yep, I know that guy, and I know the people who like him, and I see why they do.” (I got out of Nebraska as soon as I could!)
But liberal urbanites don’t get that, and they needed an explanation of how His Deplorableness could possibly have won. Hence the psychological attractiveness of the Russiagate narrative: it claimed that the force that propelled him to victory was not “American”; it came from outside. The nation’s deeply ingrained, widespread racism and patriarchy—of which Trump was merely an expression—could be papered over. “We’re better than this,” people could reassure themselves. Yeah, you wish.
A teachable moment came and went. An opportunity for self-examination was passed over. A mirror was held up, but the gaze was quickly averted.
That Trump is as “American” as apple pie was too much to consider.
The new McCarthyism that accompanied Russiagate has exacted a terribly corrosive effect on political and social discourse, besides the damage it has incurred on alternative media.
Anyone disagreeing with the mainline neoliberal Democratic agenda runs the risk of being slandered as a “Russian bot,” “Russian asset,” “Putin puppet” or something else equally as asinine. Maligning dissent—or even merely progressive ideas—with this childish name-calling has become a casual liberal pastime. The range of discussion, which was already far too narrow, has constricted further. Right at a time when the dire state of the planet’s ecosystem and the ability of humans to survive within it requires creativity and big ideas, we’ve been subjected to smack-downs and small-mindedness. It’s enraging, frankly.
So here’s Bernie Sanders, who—realistically—is far from radical, and whose proposed policies fall desperately short of what is needed. But because he’s an FDR capitalist rather than a Clinton capitalist—no, he’s not a socialist—is being maligned by the establishment as if he’s Che Guevara come back from the dead. If only!
The naked antipathy of the DNC and their corporate media shills for Sanders is a sight to behold. They are applying no veneer of impartiality to their smears. It was only a matter of time before “Russia!” was screeched in his direction. The fact that the attack came as a one-two punch from the New York Times and the Washington Post on the eve of the Nevada caucus betrayed its top-down coordination. As has been typical of stories in this genre, hypey headlines are paired incongruously with incoherent articles that fail to support the case. But it doesn’t matter. Again, it’s all about emotional impressions. Edward Bernays wrote the original playbook a century ago, and nothing’s changed except the delivery systems. It’s called propaganda.
Alas, Sanders’ response did nothing to question the false premise of Russiagate, or its toxic effects on discourse, or its irresponsible inflaming of tensions with a nuclear power. If he hasn’t actually been a true believer in the “Russia!” bullshit since the beginning, he’s certainly been giving a damn good impression. But that’s just who he is on subjects of foreign policy: a man of big talk and few principles, all too willing to fold under the pressure of authority, and far too reluctant to challenge the narratives of the establishment. This too, is a teachable moment: If this is the best we can get, then that’s tragic. We need so much more.
So what are we supposed to do?
Well, there’s that old union song, “Which side are you on?” which goes:
“Don’t scab for the bosses,
Don’t listen to their lies.
Us poor folks haven’t got a chance
Unless we organize.”Indeed. Russiagate is just one of their lies and we’ve got to organize. We must remember, too, that we’ve got far, far more common in with the people of Russia than we do with the DNC oligarchs and their compliant media here.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 23:25 - Decoupling Accelerates: Google And Microsoft Shift Production From China
Decoupling Accelerates: Google And Microsoft Shift Production From China
Earlier this month, we mentioned how the Covid-19 outbreak would force companies with high centration of supply chains in China to “rework” operations to other countries to avoid future disruptions.
Nikkei Asian Review confirmed our thoughts on Wednesday when sources said Google and Microsoft, who are currently experiencing supply chain disruptions in China, will shift production of their phones, computers, and other devices to factories in Vietnam and Thailand in the coming months.
Two sources with direct knowledge of the shift said Google would begin production of its Pixel 4A smartphone in northern Vietnam in April. The Pixel 5 will start production in 2H20 in the Southeast Asian nation.
Google asked a manufacturing partner in Thailand to immediately start production of its “smart home” related products, with expected delivery no later than 1H20, one source said.
Microsoft could have production online of its Surface devices, notebooks, and desktop computers in northern Vietnam sometime in 2Q, another two sources said. “The volume in Vietnam would be small at the beginning, but the output will pick up, and this is the direction that Microsoft wants,” a supply chain executive told Nikkei.
Google smartphones and Microsoft computers are mostly manufactured in China. From trade wars to virus impacts, the overreliance and high concentration of supply chains have left both firms in shock after production was recently halted as economic paralysis in China develops factory shutdowns. These firms are learning the hard way of overexposure of a supply chain to one particular geographical region.
“The unexpected coronavirus hit will definitely push electronics builders to further seek production capacity outside their most cost-effective production base of China,” a supply chain executive said. “No one could ignore risks after this. … It’s more than just cost — it’s about the continuity of supply chain management.”
Another source indicated that Google had asked suppliers to send production equipment from China to Vietnam as quickly as possible.
Microsoft also accelerated efforts to shift production to Vietnam after the virus outbreak became more severe earlier this month, the source added.
As we’ve noted, Apple has a tremendous overexposure of their supply chain to China and will find it challenging to shift lines – this means shortages of iPhones and Airpods could be seen in the coming months.
But here’s the dilemma, even if Google and Microsoft move production lines to Vietnam and Thailand, many of the parts used in their products are from China. The next obstacle that both companies have to overcome is finding alternative suppliers.
“It’s reasonable for companies like Google to want to speed up its pace of diversifying from China amid the coronavirus threat, while the trade war remains an uncertainty. But even if the final assembly process is outside of China, suppliers still need to ship some components from the country. … It’s a matter of the supply chain ecosystem, which takes time to rebuild,” IDC tech analyst Joey Yen told Nikkei.
It remains to be seen just how significant the impact of the epidemic on Google and Microsoft will be, but already judging by the supply chain shifts out of China and possible supplier issues that may occur after, it seems the virus impact is going to be a full year problem.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 23:05 - Key Witness In Harvey Weinstein Trial Hit By Car And Hospitalized
Key Witness In Harvey Weinstein Trial Hit By Car And Hospitalized
Authored by John Vibes via TheMindUnleashed.com,
Dr. Barbara Ziv the forensic psychologist who played a key role in the conviction of Harvey Weinstein by testifying as a witness in his trial was recently hospitalized after being hit by a car.
Not much is known about her condition or the circumstances of the incident aside from the fact that she was hit by a car while crossing the street and is in the hospital with multiple broken bones.
Law and Crime noted that there is no evidence that Ziv’s injuries have anything to do with her role as a witness in the Weinstein trial, but the timing and the fact that Weinstein is notorious for his ruthless intimidation tactics makes the incident suspicious. Weinstein’s reputation led many potential witnesses and even journalists to fear for their lives when dealing with his case.
Ziv took the stand last month as an expert witness in the case against Weinstein where she gave in-depth psychological analysis about why his victims did not initially report the crimes and why survivors of sexual assault will often continue friendships or business relationships with their attackers, especially when that person is extremely powerful and influential as Weinstein was.
“As devastating as sexual assault is, most individuals think, ‘Ok, I can put it behind me. I can move on with my life. I don’t want it to get worse. I don’t want this person who sexually assaulted me to ruin my friendships or put my job in jeopardy. I am just going to put it in a box and forget what happened. I don’t want it to get worse, but they can’t,” Ziv said in court.
Ziv also testified as an expert witness in the case against Bill Cosby.
This week, a jury in New York found Harvey Weinstein guilty on charges of rape and criminal sexual act in the first degree. He was initially supposed to be sent to Rikers Island but ended up being diverted to a local hospital after complaining of chest pains.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 22:45 - YouTube Isn't A Public Forum: PragerU Loses Conservative Censorship Case
YouTube Isn’t A Public Forum: PragerU Loses Conservative Censorship Case
Social media platforms accused of politically biased, selective enforcement policies will be allowed to continue discriminating against conservatives, according to a Wednesday court ruling from the Ninth Circuit court of appeals – which has been heavily criticized for anti-Trump rulings on immigration and other matters.
The court rejected an argument by conservative radio talk show host Dennis Prager, who claimed that his conservative PragerU videos were receiving unfair treatment by the Silicon Valley behemoth – determining that YouTube, which is owned by Google, is not a state actor subject to First Amendment constraints.
A California federal judge first dismissed the 2017 complaint in March 2018 on the grounds that YouTube isn’t a public forum and can regulate content as they see fit, according to the Hollywood Reporter.
On Wednesday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that decision and rejected PragerU’s contention that the site has become a digital-era public forum and its power to moderate content is a threat to fair dissemination of conservative viewpoints on public issues.
“Using private property as a forum for public discourse is nothing new,” writes Circuit Judge M. Margaret McKeown. “Long before the internet, people posted announcements on neighborhood bulletin boards, debated weighty issues in coffee houses, and shouted each other down in community theaters.“
While those methods seem “quaint” compared to the 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each day, the underlying issues don’t change.
“Despite YouTube’s ubiquity and its role as a public-facing platform, it remains a private forum, not a public forum subject to judicial scrutiny under the First Amendment,” writes McKeown, adding that both the First Amendment and Supreme Court precedent present “insurmountable barriers” to PragerU’s argument. –Hollywood Reporter
“Just last year, the Court held that ‘merely hosting speech by others is not a traditional, exclusive public function and does not alone transform private entities into state actors subject to First Amendment constraints,” McKeown wrote. “The internet does not alter this state action requirement of the First Amendment.”
Prager’s lawsuit focused on YouTube’s so-called Restricted Mode, which slaps age constraints on content, requires viewers to click to watch, and disallows videos from being embedded on websites. The restrictions are aimed at videos containing alcohol, sexual situations, violence and other mature subjects – such as conservative content apparently. Restricted videos are also demonetized, so creators cannot derive income from third-party advertisers.
Creators can appeal restricted mode.
“YouTube does not perform a public function by inviting public discourse on its property,” McKeown added. “To characterize YouTube as a public forum would be a paradigm shift.”
The court notes that both sides made hyperbolic arguments about decisions not in their favor, with PragerU attempting to instill fear about the tyranny of big-tech and YouTube arguing the Internet itself would be undone by government speech regulation.
“While these arguments have interesting and important roles to play in policy discussions concerning the future of the Internet, they do not figure into our straightforward application of the First Amendment,” writes McKeown. “Because the state action doctrine precludes constitutional scrutiny of YouTube’s content moderation pursuant to its Terms of Service and Community Guidelines, we affirm the district court’s dismissal of PragerU’s First Amendment claim.” –Hollywood Reporter
The 9th Circuit also tossed PragerU’s claim of false advertising.
“YouTube’s braggadocio about its commitment to free speech constitutes opinions that are not subject to the Lanham Act,” reads the decision. “Lofty but vague statements like ‘everyone deserves to have a voice, and that the world is a better place when we listen, share and build community through our stories’ … are classic, non-actionable opinions or puffery.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 22:25 - Four Reasons Inequality Isn't What You Think It Is
Four Reasons Inequality Isn’t What You Think It Is
Authored by Antonis Giannakopoulos via The Mises Institute,
One of the defining characteristics of advocates for socialism is an obsession with equality. According to this line of thinking, inequality is the central problem of the modern world, and it demands a centralized solution. Thus, socialists – and more mild social democrats – push to use the power of the state to force the transfer of wealth from the productive and successful to those who are less so. This is the way to achieve social justice, they contend.
But inequality is not the societal plague that socialists allege it to be.
The Source of Wealth: Consumer Judgment
Contrary to popular belief, the way to make money is not to exploit one’s customers. The reality is the opposite. Wealth is created by identifying the problems that people have and creating products that provide a solution and improve their lives.
In this process, the consumer leads the process by expressing his own preferences in the marketplace. If a consumer feels that a product is overpriced, he will not make an exchange. If a product seems worthwhile, he will buy it willingly. The sum of these individual choices—to purchase or not—make or break a business on the market, and this is the consumers’ prerogative. In order to meet his own needs, a person must produce something that satisfies another’s needs, whether they be labor, industrial machinery, or fine cuff links.
Does Wealth Accrue at the Expense of the Poor?
One of the socialists’ key assumptions is that there is always a losing side in a transaction. They think that wealth is like a pie, and that the rich take the largest slice, leaving workers and customers with almost nothing. In reality the market is always expanding the pie, and voluntary exchanges are always win-win when they are made.
Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and all the other “evil capitalists” have managed to create an unprecedented amount of wealth, but not only for themselves. Those working for them have benefited from their jobs, and the people who buy their products and services have benefited from better or cheaper goods (or both). Other benefits include more time to pursue more important things, and in ways that cannot be quantified (i.e., they are measured in psychic profit). The entrepreneurs, in turn, have benefited from the services of their workers—which are well worth paying for. Entrepreneurs also benefit from the voluntary purchases made by their customers.
Profit and Competition Are Not Antithetical to Collaboration
Socialists pit profit and competition against an ideal of sharing and collaboration. But rather than being a wicked, stolen good, profit is a crucial incentive for collaborative human action.
People are always searching for the best and cheapest products in order to satisfy their needs, and their demands raise prices. The prospect of profit quickly pushes entrepreneurs into producing what people want—and what they are willing to pay for. Profits illustrate how much people value an entrepreneur’s services. Consumers only pay if the entrepreneur satisfies their desires.
As long as there are profits to be made, others enter the market. The competition spurs entrepreneurs to make production more efficient and cheaper, because the greater the competition, the more the businessman will have to do to earn the customer’s business. As more goods enter the market, consumers can be more picky about whom to purchase from, and prices drop. It’s their own demand that sets the prices, and once they are satisfied and there’s not as much profit in the business, entrepreneurs shift to making other things that people want.
As many Austrian and non-Austrian economists have figured out, the market is an everyday “voting system” of what needs to be produced. Every penny acts as a vote for how best to use limited resources. Profits point entrepreneurs toward what people want most badly. The resulting production is a form of collaboration rather than exploitation. People can do more, because they don’t have to do everything themselves, and they can focus on what they do best.
Income Inequality Is Heightened by a Restrained Market
The Left makes the mistake of arguing that only the rich have gotten richer and attack capitalism without looking at the facts. The market has made nearly everyone richer, not only in terms of income but also in terms of the overall quality of life and the products that they own.
Leftists also ignore income mobility in market economies, when studies show that in fact most people born to the richest fifth of Americans fall out of that bracket within twenty years while most of those born to the poorest fifth climb to a higher quintile and even to the top.
Though their rhetoric makes it seem surprising, this makes sense. As Ludwig von Mises pointed out in The Anti-Capitalistic Mentality, the businessman owes his wealth to his customers, and this wealth is inevitably lost or diminished when others enter the market who can better satisfy the consumer through lower prices and/or a better quality of goods and services.
The problem with income inequality today is that it isn’t entirely a byproduct of the free market but instead is the result of a market crippled by interventionist policies, such as regulations, expensive licenses, and the most complicated tax system in the history of this country. Such restrictions have limited competition and made wealth creation more difficult, causing the stagnation of the middle and lower classes.
Though leftists contend that these restrictions protect people from the “dangers” of the free market, they actually protect the corporate interests that progressives claim to stand against.
Colossal businesses like Amazon and Walmart in fact favor higher minimum wages and increased regulations. They have the funds to implement them with ease, and such regulations end up acting as a protective barrier, keeping startups and potential competitors from entering the market. With competition blocked, these businesses can grow artificially large and don’t have to work as hard to earn people’s business. Instead they can spend money on lawyers and DC lobbyists to fence small businesses out of the market.
Ironically, efforts to regulate businesses in the name of protecting laborers and consumers harms small businesses and makes everyone less equal than they could be in a free market.
Conclusion
Markets are not the enemy of inequality. Regulated markets are. The income inequality that naturally occurs in the free market as a result of human uniqueness is needlessly amplified by restrictive government policies to the detriment of all.
Voluntary exchanges in capitalism are mutually advantageous. If they weren’t, the exchange would never take place. People who live in countries with more economic and social freedom enjoy greater incomes and a higher standard of living. Free trade has contributed more to the alleviation of poverty than have all the government-run programs. Socialist intervention in the market can only distance man from eradicating poverty and from happiness: only unrestrained competition driven by profit can bring about the expansion of choice, the fall in prices, and the increased satisfaction that make us wealthier.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 22:05 - Over 20 Killed, 200 Wounded In Sectarian Riots Which Coincided With Trump's India Visit
Over 20 Killed, 200 Wounded In Sectarian Riots Which Coincided With Trump’s India Visit
The death toll from days of riots which coincided with President Trump’s first ever official visit to India early this week has risen to at least 20 killed and nearly 200 wounded, Reuters reports.
New Delhi has seen the worst sectarian violence in decades after Hindus and minority Muslims clashed — along with security forces attempting to put down the violence —over the controversial new citizenship law, which prioritizes citizenship for non-Muslims from neighboring countries who immigrate.
“This was the first time that the protests have set off major bloodshed between Hindus and Muslims,” crossing “an old and dangerous fault line,” The New York Times reports.
Shortly before concluding his two day visit Trump was asked about the unrest by reporters. He said he “heard about” the law but that it is “up to India” to handle.
“As Air Force One flew Trump and his delegation out of New Delhi late Tuesday, Muslim families huddled in a mosque in the city’s northeast, praying that Hindu mobs wouldn’t burn it down,” The Associated Press reports.
GRAPHIC CONTENT: At least 20 people have died in the riots in India’s capital New Delhi over a citizenship law https://t.co/VqWL5YvmxZ pic.twitter.com/GBDqW7iiha
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 26, 2020
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The riots are considered a deep embarrassment for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who appealed for calm on Wednesday.
“Peace and harmony are central to our ethos. I appeal to my sisters and brothers of Delhi to maintain peace and brotherhood at all times,” Modi said in a tweet.
Men marching on top of a mosque in Delhi, India’s capital city, vandalising it, and placing a Hindu far-right saffron flag over itpic.twitter.com/3wANfPoVZQ
— Alfons López Tena (@alfonslopeztena) February 25, 2020
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Police and paramilitary security forces were out in greater force on the streets of the Indian capital Wednesday, after sectarian mobs had been engaged in running clashes involving guns, knives, clubs, and stones.
Violence is soaring high in Delhi.
No police or other help is available. #DelhiBurning
pic.twitter.com/xcKdOIA60p— Shahjhan Malik (@shahjhan_malikk) February 26, 2020
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An eyewitness report by Reuters detailed the following:
Critics say the law is biased against Muslims and undermines India’s secular constitution. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has denied it has any bias against India’s more than 180 million Muslims.
Reuters witnesses saw mobs wielding sticks and pipes walking down streets in parts of northeast Delhi on Tuesday, amid arson attacks and looting. Thick clouds of black smoke billowed from a tyre market that was set ablaze.
Many of the wounded had suffered gunshot injuries, hospital officials said. At least two mosques in northeast Delhi were set on fire.
At least 20 people are dead after right-wing Hindu groups attacked mostly-Muslim protesters in New Delhi over India’s new citizenship law.
The violence began over the weekend and intensified on Tuesday during Trump’s state visit. More @business: https://t.co/i7cbE1X2qm pic.twitter.com/0kobPGw1rP
— QuickTake by Bloomberg (@QuickTake) February 26, 2020
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Throughout Trump’s visit, widely viewed as a success, the president frequently sidestepped the issue of the citizenship law.
He had said during his opening visit remarks Monday at Motera Stadium: “Your nation has always been admired around the Earth as the place where millions upon millions of Hindus and Muslims and Sikhs and Jains, Buddhists, Christians, and Jews worship side by side in harmony.” And further: “Your unity is an inspiration to the world.”
The country has seen months of protests over the citizenship law, but exploded into their worst violence upon Trump’s visit.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 21:45 - China Car Sales Continue To Crater, Down 83% For The Third Week In February
China Car Sales Continue To Crater, Down 83% For The Third Week In February
Chinese auto sales continue to be a sinking ship on the heels of both an auto recession that has been in full swing for the last 18-24 months – and now the impact of the coronavirus.
Though the narrative coming out of China is that the country is attempting to return to some normalcy, the data from the company’s auto market tells us very differently. Retail car sales in the country are down 83% year over year for the third week in February. For the week, the country’s auto sales dropped to 5,411 units per day, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
They also stated that vehicle production and sales would show a “more noticeable” drop in February than in January, something Zero Hedge readers already knew based on our analysis of January numbers out of China, where we said exactly that. The CAAM said that January vehicle sales fell 18.7% on the year and 27.5% on month.
But the story is going to be from February onward.
Recall, just 5 days ago we wrote that Chinese auto sales had gone into “full collapse” and fell 92% for the first half of February.
China recorded 4,909 units sold in the first 16 days of the month, which is down from 59,930 in the same period last year. We said then what we’ll say again today: “If this figure doesn’t make it clear that the pandemic is having an effect outside of Hubei province in China, we’re not sure what will do it.
The China Passenger Car Association said days ago: “Very few dealerships opened in the first weeks of February and they have had very little customer traffic.”
Photographs out of China, as the virus rages its way through several major eastern cities, make the country look like something between a ghost town and wasteland.
Which it why it wasn’t surprising late last week to hear CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu say: “There was barely anybody at car dealers in the first week of February as most people stayed at home.”
Again, Zero Hedge readers should not be surprised by the February numbers. We noted that while China’s January decline was partially attributable to the coronavirus outbreak, it wasn’t until the end of January and early February when China was placed essentially on a full lockdown due to the outbreak of the virus.
We’d like to speculate that the small tick up in the third week of February is a promising sign, but we think we know better. We’ll continue to follow the story very closely and will update when new data becomes available.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 21:25 - 'Not A Real Democrat' – Florida Lawsuit Seeks To Exclude Bernie Sanders From Primary Ballot
‘Not A Real Democrat’ – Florida Lawsuit Seeks To Exclude Bernie Sanders From Primary Ballot
Democrats are failing to halt Bernie Sanders’ march toward the nomination after the latest Democratic debates. This has prompted two Tallahassee men to file a lawsuit against Sanders to remove him from the Florida primary ballot, reported Tallahassee Democrat.
Frank Bach, a retired mail carrier, and George Brown, a retired social worker, filed their lawsuit in a Leon County circuit court on Monday, requesting a judge to exclude Sanders from the primary ballot because he’s not a genuine Democrat, but rather an “independent.”
The complaint read that the Vermont senator would be “interloping improperly” and “unlawfully” in the March vote if he remained on the ballot.
“The plaintiffs have the right to cast their March 17 Democratic presidential preference primary votes for those who are really Democrats, not independents, and are entitled to this court’s protection of their right to vote for a Democrat, with the results not diluted by Defendant Sanders’ unlawful participation as an independent interloping improperly in the (primary),” the complaint said.
Welcome to Florida, @BernieSanders
This was filed in state court today pic.twitter.com/Rf2NVMFUJt
— Matt Dixon (@Mdixon55) February 25, 2020
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“Defendant Sanders is clearly an independent and is clearly not a Democrat, by his own definition,” the complaint adds. “His current ‘day job’ is as a United States senator, and he has consistently, proudly asserted his service in that role as an independent.”
Juan Penalosa, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, dismissed the lawsuit and called it absolutely “ridiculous.” Penalosa said, ” the Florida Democratic Party Executive Committee voted unanimously to place Sen. Sanders on the Florida ballot. Votes cast for the senator are valid and must be counted.”
The lawsuit comes as Sanders is seen as an early front-runner to become the Democratic nominee after he won the popular vote in New Hampshire, Nevada, and Iowa. VP Joe Biden and billionaire Michael Bloomberg have intensified their attacks on Sanders as his popularity increases among US voters.
While it’s too late to withdraw Sanders from the Florida ballot, the complaint notes that any mailed ballots in the Democratic primary should be set aside if in favor of Sanders.
As far as the complaint succeeding in court, it’s a long shot but should outline just how much the Democratic party is willing to do directly or indirectly, to make sure Sanders does not become the nominee.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 21:05 - Coronavirus Paralyzes Global Credit Market As New Issuance Crashes To Zero
Coronavirus Paralyzes Global Credit Market As New Issuance Crashes To Zero
In the early days, when virtually nobody paid attention to the coronavirus pandemic which China was doing everything in its power to cover up, markets were not only predictably ignoring the potential global plague – after all central banks can always print more money, or is that antibodies – but until last week, were hitting all time highs. All that changed when it became apparent that for all its data manipulation, China was simply unable to reboot its economy as hundreds of millions of workers refused to believe the government had the viral plague under control, starting a potentially catastrophic 2,3 month countdown to millions of small and medium Chinese businesses going bankrupt, resulting not only in untold devastation in the world’s 2nd largest economy but paralyzing and crippling supply chains across the world. Worse, it also triggered the biggest equity selloff in years.
And now, the coronavirus pandemic is about to leave yet another market in critical condition as the global credit machine is grinding to a halt.
As Bloomberg points out, the $2.6 trillion international bond market, where the world’s biggest companies raise money to fund everything from acquisitions to factory upgrades, came to a virtual standstill as the coronavirus spreads panic across company boardrooms.
While hardly a surprise with US equity markets suffering one of their worst selloffs since the great depression, Wall Street banks recorded their third straight day without any high-grade bond offerings, an unheard of event – especially in this day and age of ravenous yield apetite – outside of holiday and seasonal slowdowns. Across the Atlantic, European debt bankers had their first day of 2020 without a deal on Wednesday. And bond issuance in Asia, where the virus first emerged, has also slowed to a trickle.
As Bloomberg puts it, “it has been a remarkable turn of events for a market where investors had been snapping up almost anything on offer amid a global dash for yield. Europe had been enjoying its strongest ever start to a year for issuance, and sales of U.S. junk bonds have been on the busiest pace in at least a decade. With so many borrowers having postponed their issuance plans, a calming in global markets could kickstart debt sales again.”
Honeywell, Virgin Money UK and Transport for London were among the numerous European borrowers who had lined up deals before financial markets turned upside down. Before the slowdown, Europe had seen 239 billion euros ($260 billion) of bonds sold in January alone. Across in the US, the investment-grade market was expecting around $25 billion of sales this week before virus fears froze the market on Monday. Excluding the seasonally dead December holiday season and typical two-week summer hiatus in late August, there hasn’t been that long of a break to start the week since July 2018.
As shown in the chart below, after record new issuance in the investment grade market, the last week of September has seen a total paralysis in the primary market, similar to the freeze of China’s economy.
Amid a surge in uncertainty that has crushed dip buyers, and left even central bankers scrambling to figure out what the proper response is, credit investors have been rattled by the potential impact on company earnings – now that most realize collapsing supply chains could result in catastrophic number in coming quarters – from disruption caused by the virus, which has seen huge parts of global supply chains shutting down. Meanwhile, as traders await the the panic selling to kick in, a derivatives index that gauges credit market fear in the U.S. had its biggest jump in more than three years on Monday as investors rushed to hedge against a wider selloff.
“It’s a coin toss as to what tomorrow will look like, or even the rest of today,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. “You have to respect the fact that when you don’t have an information advantage to not make any significant moves.”
It’s not just the IG market: offerings also came to a halt in the junk-bond market, where until the past week, $67 billion of sales had been running at the fastest pace since at least 2009, Bloomberg data showed. Mining giant Cleveland-Cliffs was the latest to try and crack the primary market freeze on Wednesday, with a $950 million offering of secured and unsecured notes testing the market in an attempt to refinance an acquisition target’s debt. And the Canadian market remained open for business as utility company Hydro One Ltd. raised C$1.1 billion ($827 million) in the largest Canadian dollar bond from a non-financial company this year.
Ironically, one can argue that there is a simple way to reboot the credit market: just offer higher yields:
Overall borrowing costs remain very low, however. A rally in U.S. Treasuries has sent all-in yields on U.S. investment-grade debt to record lows. U.S. investment-grade funds have reaped near-record inflows each week this year, as investors seek high-quality income assets. High-yield and leveraged loanfunds, however, have seen more outflows.
Almost as if investors don’t buy credit for the (relative) yield, but for the capital gains from selling it to a greater fool.
Meanwhile, the worsening pandemic is already taking a toll on companies’ balance sheets, with drinks maker Diageo set to book as much as a 325 million-pound ($422 million) hit to organic net sales. In the U.S., United Airlines Holdings withdrew its 2020 profit forecast Tuesday as it can’t guarantee its earlier earnings goal. Microsoft was the latest to cut its guidance for personal computer sales. And it’s all downhill from here.
The biggest concern however: with bond markets frozen, just how will IG-rated companies obtain the funding they need to keep buying back their stock, and pushing the market higher. In fact, one can argue that the freeze of the credit market is far more dangerous to the stock market than the inability to refinance a 1% bond with something paying 0.5%. If that’s the case, expect far more pain for stocks in coming weeks and months as the market’s entire buyback spree of the past three years goes into a very painful and dramatic reverse.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 20:29 - SoftBank 'Vision Fund' Chief Carried Out Weinstein-Style Sabotage Campaign To Sideline Rivals
SoftBank ‘Vision Fund’ Chief Carried Out Weinstein-Style Sabotage Campaign To Sideline Rivals
Over the past six months, the words “SoftBank”, “Vision Fund” and “WeWork” have become emblematic of the excessive valuations of Silicon Valley “unicorns”. When a series of anonymously-sourced reports by WSJ and several rivals claimed investors were valuing WeWork at just one-fifth of its massive $47 billion, the company quickly pulled the IPO, before admitting that without the money from the IPO and a $6 billion credit line that was contingent on the dealing going through, WeWork would be insolvent in a matter of months.
This triggered a frantic rescue by WeWork’s biggest backer, SoftBank, which had poured both the firm’s capital, and capital belonging to its “Vision Fund” investors (mostly the Saudis) based on the investing ‘vision’ of Chairman Masayoshi Son, who controlled SoftBank and had a reputation as one of the world’s most successful momentum investors. By the time the dust had cleared, SoftBank had committed another $6 billion to WeWork, and its reputation was in tatters. It would go on to become the butt of jokes as other SoftBank backed firms shut down or saw their valuations eviscerated.
The entire episode shocked the international investing community. It also didn’t reflect well on SoftBank’s culture, as the VC arm of the company, and the Vision Fund in particular, was characterized as a snakepit, with rival executives jockeying for Masa Son’s favor.
Now, a lengthy investigative report written by two WSJ reporters delves into a stunning sabotage campaign allegedly organized by the executive who led the Vision Fund through many of its disastrous investments. Rajeev Mishra, the executive vice president in charge of the Vision Fund, allegedly enlisted the help of a shady Italian banker to sideline two rival executives so he could have exclusive control over the Vision Fund and its $100 billion pile of capital.
His schemes would put Harvey Weinstein to shame.
Their methods including hiring private investigators to tale the men, setting up an attempted ‘honeypot’ to try and ensnare one of the men in a sex scandal and leaking private details stolen from the mens’ bank accounts to reporters and allege that it’s evidence of corruption.
Rajeev Mishra
The Italian banker, Alessandro Benedetti, also reportedly had experience working with private intelligence operatives and computer hackers, making him an ideal fit for Mishra’s purposes. During the course of the scheme, it’s clear Benedetti began to see Mishra as a friend and benefactor, and was disappointed when Mishra failed to secure him a lucrative job in payment for the scheme – though at one point he did wire Benedetti $500,000 for ‘expenses’.
Somehow, WSJ managed to obtain emails between Benedetti and Mishra (as for how, we have a few ideas).
It’s unclear how much Benedetti spent on the campaign, but it involved hiring several professional spies, employing tactics also favored by newly convicted fallen Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein.
That month, Mr. Benedetti sent a team to Tokyo to set up the so-called honey trap, in which one or more women would lure Mr. Arora to a hotel room rigged with cameras in an attempt to obtain compromising images, people familiar with the effort said.
The mission failed: Mr. Arora didn’t fall for the ploy.
Around that time, Mr. Benedetti hired K2 Intelligence LLC, a private intelligence firm, to investigate Messrs. Arora and Sama and disseminate findings to the media, according to emails and people familiar with the hiring. He also recruited a Swiss private intelligence operative, Nicolas Giannakopoulos, to work on the campaign.
Mr. Giannakopoulos distributed to journalists screenshots of Mr. Arora’s and Mr. Sama’s private banking records and emails, according to messages reviewed by the Journal. Mr. Giannakopoulos didn’t respond to requests for comment.
During one ‘operation’, one of the team’s ‘operative’s allegedly bribed a journalist to publish a story raising questions about a deal that one of Mishra’s marks had worked on.
K2 hired a London public-relations firm, Powerscourt Group, to try to get K2’s findings and information provided by Mr. Benedetti into the press. The operatives often referred to Mr. Arora by a code name, “Mr. West.”
In September 2015, Mr. Giannakopoulos, who goes by Nico, contacted a freelance reporter to pitch a story about a troubled telecom deal Mr. Arora played a part in. Reporter Mark Hollingsworth took the story to The Independent, a British newspaper. An email about this arrangement suggested the reporter would be paid if the story was published.
“The Independent is not a high quality newspaper so I’ve asked Nico only to offer a success fee,” David Robertson, then a K2 employee working on the campaign, wrote in an email to several people.
The Independent published the article October 2015. Mr. Hollingsworth said the notion he received a success fee was “completely and utterly false.”
A spokeswoman for The Independent said it expects journalists to adhere to “all applicable bribery and corruption laws.”
A spokeswoman for K2 said the firm doesn’t discuss clients or client matters. Powerscourt’s CEO said the same.
Amazingly, all of Mishra and Benedetti’s sabotage attempts amounted to nothing, as their compatriots inside SoftBank seemed not to care about the allegations.
At SoftBank, the article and others that resulted were mostly seen as noise, people familiar with the internal reaction said. By November 2015, Mr. Benedetti was trying a new tack: a shareholder campaign. He asked law firm Susman Godfrey LLP to represent him as an investor making claims about SoftBank, Mr. Arora and others, emails show.
The law firm declined to take the work, and Mr. Benedetti then went to Boies Schiller Flexner LLP. Mr. Benedetti arranged for Mr. Giannakopoulos to be the shareholder nominally behind the claims, but stayed closely involved, according to people familiar with the events.
This inspired them to try a new tack: Shareholder activism. Eventually, this proved successful, Mishra’s rivals resigned, and he was left in charge of the Vision Fund.
In January 2016, a Boies Schiller lawyer sent a public letter questioning Mr. Arora’s investments in Indian startups and asking for an investigation of alleged conflicts of interest. Mr. Arora’s “past conduct also demonstrates his willingness to put his personal interests—and those of his partners—above those of the companies that have employed him as a senior executive,” the letter said.
More letters followed throughout 2016 from Boies Schiller and a law firm that succeeded it, prompting SoftBank’s board to launch an investigation into Mr. Arora, which found the allegations to be false. Over time, critical shareholder letters began to focus on Mr. Sama as well.
In June 2016, Mr. Arora resigned from SoftBank. He said he made the decision after Mr. Son chose not to give up his CEO post. Messrs. Son and Arora had begun to disagree on investments, said people familiar with the internal dynamics.
Benedetti had hoped that once Mishra was in charge of the Vision Fund, he would reward Benedetti with a cushy job. But this never happened, though the emails suggest that Mishra tried to set Benedetti up with friends, and even lobbied them to hire him.
Eventually, Benedetti grew bitter, and although he wasn’t named as the source, we wouldn’t be surprised to learn that WSJ’s sources are either Benedetti, or some kind of intermediary.
Americans simply assume that many successful business executives, politicians and other powerful figures are irredeemable sociopaths. It’s rare that we get to see them prove it so brazenly.
And just like with the Credit Suisse spying scandal, we can’t help but wonder, are these tactics really the norm in the rarefied world of high finance?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 20:25 - President Trump Appoints VP Pence As Coronavirus Czar, Stocks Slide
President Trump Appoints VP Pence As Coronavirus Czar, Stocks Slide
Update (1845): In his long-awaited press conference, President Trump defended the White House’s response to the coronavirus outbreak, insisted that he would accept whatever amount of crisis-response funds approved by Congress and appointed VP Mike to be his “Coronavirus Czar”.
In the middle of Trump’s presser, the Washington Post dropped a bombshell report, claiming that the latest US coronavirus case has been confirmed in Northern California, and that it was the first case with no clear path of origin. That case would be the US’s 16th.
Trump started with an update on the 15 confirmed US cases that weren’t infected aboard the Diamond Princess or in Wuhan, claiming that 8 of 15 have returned, only 1 is still in the hospital, and 5 have fully recovered.
On the subject of the emergency spending package, Trump said that “if Congress wants to give us more, we’ll take it.”
“We’re requesting 2.5. Some Republicans would like us to get 4 and some Democrats want 8.5,” he said.
Though he added that “hopefully we won’t need too much because we’ve done a tremendous job,” Trump said.
In one of the funnier moments, Trump remarked about the flu: “The flu kills between 25,000 to 60,000 people a year – that was shocking to me.”
The president also stressed America’s readiness for anything.
“We’re very, very ready for this, for anything, whether it’s going to be a breakout with larger proportions or whether we stay at that very low level,” Trump said.
Moving on to the subject of a vaccine, Trump said he expected one would be finished “fairly rapidly.”
“We have a lot of great quarantine facilities we’re rapidly developing a vaccine and speaking to a the doctors we think this is something we can develop fairly rapidly.”
Later in the presser, Dr. Fauci, the CDC’s infectious-disease response head, noted during the presser that it will take at least six months for ‘Phase One’ trial to be conducted. Though this is the fastest we have ever gone from a sequence of a virus to a trial, it will still take a year to a year and a half to come up with a vaccine. We will know soon if it works.
Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC also spoke, saying “the message is clear: more cases are expected… which explains why Dow futures are extending losses (below the lows of the day).
“We do expect more cases and this is a good time to prepare,” she said.
HHS Secretary Azar also spoke, reiterating that that Americans, hospitals and local governments across the country should start to prepare in case coronavirus begins spreading more widely here.
After Trump announced his plan to appoint VP Mike Pence to lead the virus response, he invited Pence up to speak about his qualifications and his plan for leading the federal response. Pence cited his experience in dealing with the MERS outbreak in 2014 – Indiana was the first state to report a case in that instance.”
As the Q&A began, Trump told a reporter that “no I don’t think it’s inevitable” when asked by a reporter about the CDC’s comments yesterday about the likelihood of “community” outbreaks. Trump answered another reporter’s question, claiming the US may need t restrict travel from Italy and South Korea, though “this is not the right time.”
The outbreak will impact US GDP, Trump acknowledged, though he said the impact “cannot really be determined.”
One reporter asked Trump for his thoughts on the stock market’s wild ride, which he blamed – in comic fashion – on the Dems.
“I think investors looked on stage last night and said if there’s even a possibility that could happen – I think it takes a hit for that. I think the stock market will recover. the Economy is very strong. The consumer is doing better than they’ve ever done.”
As for quarantine measures, Trump said he has plans for quarantines “on larger scale” if needed, though apparently the market didn’t like that.
Stock futures moved lower during the presser as Trump spoke about the administration’s virus-response plans:
As the Q&A dragged on, Trump addressed the Olympics, and whether schools should start preparing for the virus.
Trump was also asked what he’d say to Americans planning a vacation, and that the games would go on.
“Hopefully, they’re going to be able to do that. We think, we hope it’s going to be in good shape by that time,” Trump said.
“This ends, this is going to end. Hopefully it’ll be sooner rather than later,” Trump said. Travel companies whose stocks have fallen will pick their business back up then, he predicts.
As for whether schools should be prepared, Trump said “every aspect of our society should be prepared.”
Trump also threw some shade at “incompetent” Nancy Pelosi.
“I think she’s incompetent,” Trump said of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who criticized his administration’s response to the coronavirus.
Asked about the travel restrictions, Trump said he won’t loosen travel restrictions on China at this time.
As for whether he think people are panicking, Trump said. “You don’t want to see panic, because there’s no reason to be panicked,” Trump said.
Of course, Trump can’t talk about a market selloff without bashing the Fed, which he did on Wednesday. Specifically, he said he was “not happy” with the Fed funds rate, and blamed the Fed, Boeing and GE for the market carnage, while also bashing the central bank for the strong dollar.
“I totally disagree with our Fed; I think our Fed has made a terrible mistake,” Trump said.
Asked why Trump put Pence in charge of the virus response if Azar is doing such a good job (as Trump insisted following the news about the ‘coronavirus czar’ earlier today), Trump said Azar has other priorities on his plate, including drug pricing.
With reporters scrambling to think of every “gotcha” question imaginable, Trump was asked how he could possibly trust the Chinese after they lied during the early days of the epidemic. Trump dismissed these claims and insisted the US is still working with China, and that his relationship with Xi hasn’t been impacted by the outbreak.
* * *
A day after he sought to minimize fears of the virus spreading widely across the U.S., President Trump is holding a White House press conference (pushed back from 1800ET to 1830ET) alongside experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Trump and members of his administration have been sending mixed messages about the virus (WH’s Kudlow “contained”, CDC’s Messonnier “it’s coming!”) and we assume tonight will be to ‘clarify’ the message and attempt to calm markets (after another fall today.
Watch Live at 1830ET:
As AP reports, on Capitol Hill, senior lawmakers called for a bipartisan spending package that would give federal, state and local officials more resources. Congress in recent years took a similar approach with the opioid epidemic, pumping out federal dollars for treatment and prevention.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York unveiled an $8.5 billion coronavirus proposal. Schumer has been harshly critical of Trump’s response to the outbreak, and his request – announced before the Democratic-controlled House Appropriations Committee has weighed in – rankled some Democrats hoping for quick, bipartisan action to address the crisis.
* * *
As we detailed earlier, having already urged the American public to ‘buy the dip’, just before another 900 point drop in the Dow, President Trump has decided to take matters into his own hands – the only way he knows how.
In a double tweet this morning, Trump announced he will hold a news conference at 6pmET to put the American people straight.,
“I will be having a News Conference at the White House, on this subject, today at 6:00 P.M. CDC representatives, and others, will be there. Thank you!”
The reason for his sudden need to address the public (aside from the 2000 points drop in the Dow) is that
“Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. “
And responding to Democrats new narrative that The Trump administration is not doing enough, he lashed out:
“Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!”
One thing does make our eyebrows raise a little is the CDC official that raised what is somewhat unprecedented alerts yesterday has an interesting family linkage.
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the CDC Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned ominously that:
“As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder. It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.
…Disruption to everyday life might be severe…
…We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”
In addition, Messonnier warned that it may soon become necessary for schools and businesses to greatly restrict person to person contact…
The CDC outlined what schools and businesses will likely need to do if the COVID-19 virus becomes an epidemic outbreak in the U.S. Schools should consider dividing students into smaller groups or close and use “internet-based tele-schooling,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.
“For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options,” Messonnier said.
Can you ever recall a top CDC official ever making statements this ominous?
Well, it turns out Dr. Nancy Messonnier is the sister of the former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein who appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
Could she be part of the resistance?
Remember, it was reported that CDC employees cried when Trump was elected.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 20:15 - "Haven Of Last Resort" – Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears
“Haven Of Last Resort” – Goldman Sees Gold At $1800 Due To Virus & Bernie Sanders Fears
Over the past two weeks gold has surged higher, in line with the decline in long-term bond yields and global equity sell-off as new cases off Covid-19 in Europe and the Middle East threaten to curtail global economic activity.
Goldman Sachs suggests there is more to come for precious metals as with rates getting closer to their lower bound, gold looks increasingly like the safest haven.
Mikhail Sprogis outlines three factors behind continued gains for gold (12m forecast $1800)…
1) Fear-Driven investment demand
2) Large global savings glut
3) The rise of Bernie Sanders
Gold has outperformed traditional haven currencies, such as the Yen and Swiss Franc, underscoring its status as the safest haven in a world where all currencies are susceptible to a virus-related shock.
1. This surge in ‘fear-driven’ investment demand has been significantly larger than the consumer demand lost owing to any negative wealth shock to EM consumers as a result of China’s shutdown.
We estimate that gold purchases fall 2.6% for every 1% hit to Chinese real GDP growth. Therefore, our Economists’ forecast of a 6% contraction in Chinese GDP in Q1 implies only a 28 tonnes loss in gold demand. Adding losses for other East-Asian countries implies a total loss of 40 tonnes. This is small relative to 130 tonnes of additional demand from gold ETFs since January 12. If it continues at this pace total ETF demand could reach 200 tonnes by end of Q1.
The actual increase in gold investments could be up to twice as large owing to non-transparent purchases. Therefore, for gold, the fear-effect from Covid-19 more than offsets any wealth shock as the result of quarantines.
While the number of new cases in China has been declining, Goldman warns that it is premature to say we are out of the woods yet. The Chinese economy is yet to materially restart and the effects on global supply chains are only now becoming visible.
Our Strategy team sees risks of further equity downside which should keep volatility high and ETF inflows strong.
2. Investment demand for gold is further supported by the large global savings glut.
Household savings in developed markets are at historically high levels while global capex remains depressed creating a shortage of places to invest. Inflows into bond mutual funds and ETFs – a good proxy for retail demand of defensive assets – is at its highest level since 2009. At the same time, supply of government bonds globally is restricted owing to central bank purchases creating a deficit in high quality assets. This supports demand for alternative portfolio diversifiers such as gold.
We continue to believe that gold remains attractive relative to bonds. It has a greater capacity to increase during the next recession as bonds may be constrained by the lower bound on central bank rates. Gold is also a better hedge against the risk of inflation overshoots.
Additionally, gold’s share in investor portfolios remains at a very depressed level. The value of gold ETFs relative to the NAV of funds in North America and Europe indicates that the value of gold ETFs is only 0.3%-0.4% of the funds’ NAV and that we are materially below gold’s peak allocation of 2011-2012. As such we see scope for material rotation of investment funds into gold.
3. Finally, the increase in the probability of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination could further boost investment demand for gold.
Sanders’ proposed tax hikes could pose risks to equities, and he has proposed a large increase in government spending.
The last time this happened in the US outside of a recession was during Regan’s stimulus in the 1980s. Gold rallied as market participants became concerned regarding increases in inflation.
Finally, the proposed wealth tax could incentivize high net worth individuals to buy physical gold bars and store them in a vault, where it is more difficult for governments to reach them.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley sees more than just safe-haven demand as rising negative yielding debt bring fresh impetus to gold’s price…
Having fallen through 4Q19, total negative yielding debt has climbed 19%ytd to $13.5tn (Exhibit 1), making holding gold an attractive proposition.
That’s helped propel total ETF holdings to fresh all-time highs, following inflows of 1.2Moz in Jan-20.
So, summing it al up, risks to global growth surrounding the virus together with a continued savings glut, depressed real rates, and increased focus on the US election should take the gold price higher by year-end with their new 3, 6 and 12 month forecasts are now $1,700/toz, $1,750/toz and $1,800/toz.
In the event that the virus effect spreads to Q2, we could see gold top $1800/toz already on a 3 month basis.
Goldman also increased their 3, 6 and 12m silver forecasts to $18.5/toz, $18.75/toz and $19/toz.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 20:05 - CDC Confirms First US Coronavirus Case Of 'Unknown Origin' As South Korea Infections Soar: Live Updates
CDC Confirms First US Coronavirus Case Of ‘Unknown Origin’ As South Korea Infections Soar: Live Updates
Summary:
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South Korea reports 334 new cases, bringing the total number in the country to 1,595
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South Korea, US postpone joint drills due to coronavirus
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The US State Department has issued a level 3 travel advisory urging people to reconsider going to South Korea
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China reports 26 new deaths and 409 additional cases in Hubei province
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CDC confirms first case of ‘unknown origin’ in US
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CDC reports 6 new cases among repatriated Americans
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WaPo reports Northern California has 16th US case, says it’s first of “unknown origin” and risks local spread
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83 being monitored in Nassau County
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Orange County declares state of emergency
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Norway has confirmed its first case
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8 quarantined in Westchester
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HHS confirms 15th US case
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Iran deaths hit 19
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Brazil confirms first case in South America
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France confirms 2nd death
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Tokyo pushes back against Tokyo Games cancellation talk
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Greece confirms first case
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Germany unleashes fiscal stimulus after confirming new cases
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Dems one-up Trump with $8.5 billion package.
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Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain confirm new cases
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Finland confirms 2nd case
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1st 2 cases reported in Pakistan
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HHS Secretary tells Congress infectious disease fund has no extra uncommitted cash
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Congress begins talks on corona virus spending bill with vote expected early next month
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Germany health minister warns we’re at beginning of epidemic in Germany; 5 new cases
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Italy confirms 12th death, cases soar above 400
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North Macedonia confirms first case
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South Korea cases soar above 1,200 as gov’t begins testing of 200k patients
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Brazil confirms infected patient came on plane from Paris
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Ericsson confirms one of its employees in Croatia tested positive
* * *
Update (2025ET): Cases in South Korea have exploded higher, with an official report of 334 new cases, bringing the total to 1,595.
The US State Department has issued a level 3 travel advisory urging citizens to reconsider travel to South Korea.
Meanwhile, China reported an unbelievably low 26 deaths and 409 additional cases in Hubei province.
* * *
Update (1950ET): The CDC has confirmed the first US case of “unknown origin”, but they haven’t said where it is.
- CDC SAYS HAS FIRST U.S. CORONAVIRUS CASE OF UNKOWN ORIGIN
The announcement, which was scooped by WaPo, follows Trump’s press conference, where he named Mike Pence to be his “Coronavirus Czar” (though Trump made clear he didn’t like that terminology).
One economist with BankRate.com praised Trump’s performance, saying the appointment of Pence would help the administration clarify the narrative after yesterday’s “bungled messaging.”
“In naming Vice President Mike Pence as the administration’s point person in charge of the response to the coronavirus outbreak, President Trump attempted to show a concerted effort after bungled messaging. Even so, he couldn’t avoid the opportunity to spend more time at the briefing room lectern instead of letting the experts address health concerns.”
* * *
Update (1850ET): Just as President Trump was appointing VP Mike Pence to oversee the US’s virus response, the Washington Post reported that the first US coronavirus case of unknown origin has been reported in Northern California.
They added that the case is a sign that the virus “may be spreading in a local area.”
The CDC won’t disclose the exact location of the case, according to the paper.
Of course…
CDC refusing to say the county means everyone will assume this is in San Francisco. https://t.co/bEYk0sm4Ac
— Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) February 27, 2020
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* * *
Update (1755ET): FoxLA reports that Orange County officials declared a local health emergency Wednesday in response to the coronavirus, which has now infected more than 81,000 people worldwide. Michelle Steel, chair of the county Board of Supervisors, and board Vice Chair Andrew Do made the announcement at an early afternoon news conference.
“Our declaration of local emergency today signed by Dr. Quick is about preparedness. It does not indicate a greater risk of harm, there are no current incidents reported in the county of Orange,” stated Supervisor Andrew Do.
There has only been one confirmed case of the virus in Orange County, according to county health officer Nichole Quick, that one patient has been treated and is no longer showing signs.
The Orange County decision follows San Diego County, where officials declared a local emergency in response to the coronavirus on Feb. 14, and San Francisco Mayor London Breed declared a local emergency on Tuesday.
* * *
Update (1549ET): The tiny kingdom of Bahrain has reported a stunning spike in cases, going from just a handful to 33 in less than 24 hours, according to the country’s health ministry.
* * *
Update (1545ET): Workday is reportedly cancelling its internal sales conference, which was expected to draw thousands to Orlando, over coronavirus fears.
SCOOP: Workday $WDAY has canceled its 2020 SKO in Orlando. 3000 people were supposed to show up. Now will be all virtual. tip @Techmeme https://t.co/MvrptHf7HY
— Matt Rosoff (@MattRosoff) February 26, 2020
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* * *
Update (1505ET): Norway has confirmed its first case, becoming the latest Scandinavian state to join the corona club.
After the WHO said Wednesday afternoon in the US that China confirmed 412 cases Wednesday, which was less than the 459 cases confirmed in the rest of the world, here’s what the chart of cases ex-China is looking like.
* * *
Update (1435ET): County officials in Westchester have just confirmed that 8 people are under quarantine.
New York City has reiterated that it has zero confirmed cases.
* * *
Update (1430ET): Iraq is taking more steps to protect its fragile economy from the virus, closing schools and universities for 10 days, while banning citizens from traveling to a list of 8 virus-impacted countries, including Iran.
* * *
Update (1345ET): If you’re wondering what caused the latest leg lower in stocks, we believe we’ve found the answer: 83 people in Long Island’s Nassau County are being monitored for coronavirus infection, threatening to make the CDC’s warnings about imminent community outbreaks come true.
The story was initially reported by a local radio station before it was picked up by other local outlets.
Nassau County Executive Laura Curran told residents “do not panic” at a press conference. Six have been tested so far, five confirmed to not have it.
WATCH: Nassau County Executive Curran and Health Commissioner Eisenstein provide updates and guidance on #coronavirus.https://t.co/zDcPSePWMM
— Laura Curran (@NassauExecutive) February 26, 2020
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Nassau health officials say they’re working with both state and federal agencies to monitor the situation. Gov. Cuomo has weighed in on the situation, affirming that only one possible case is still pending after 27 were tested. He added that no matter what happens here, he expects the virus will eventually arrive in NY State. Though an outbreak is inevitable, Cuomo added that there’s “no need for undue fear.” He added that he believed the pending case was in Nassau County.
Earlier, HHS Secretary Alex Azar confirmed the 15th coronavirus case in the US, while the latest tally from France put the total at 18, up from just a handful yesterday. Germany has also seen a run-up, as we noted earlier, confirming 7 new cases on Thursday as its leading health official declared an “epidemic”, and urged local officials to prepare for a pandemic.
Meanwhile, five new cases were recently confirmed in Germany, according to Bild, this after Health Minister Spahn gave a stirring warning earlier, part of which we mentioned below: He also confirmed that some infection chains in Germany can’t be tracked. That would bring the total to 23.
* * *
Update (1250ET): A few days ago, the CDC’s Dr. Fauci was on CNBC affirming a WSJ report that human trials for a coronavirus vaccine could enter testing in a matter of months, though we’re likely still at least a year shy of a usable vaccine.
Now, another FDA official is reportedly claiming that the three-month time-frame for human trials to begin might be a little too optimistic.
In recent days, the market has found solace in optimistic vaccine headlines. We’re curious to see if that dynamic will continue.
Over in hte UK, British Airways just announced plans to scrap 22 round-trip flights to Milan.
* * *
Update (1235ET): Another twist revealed: The coronavirus case in Croatia is reportedly an Ericsson employee.
- ERICSSON CONFIRMS ONE OF ITS EMPLOYEES IN CROATIA HAVE TESTED POSITIVE FOR NOVEL CORONAVIRUS
* * *
Update (1225ET): Italy has confirmed some new cases.
- ITALY HAS 400 CONFIRMED VIRUS CASES: EMERGENCY CHIEF
Back in the US, an FDA official told the press that the situation is “on the cusp” of a pandemic, apparently violating WHO Director General Dr. Tedros’s request that people kindly refrain from using the “P” word.
- FDA OFFICIAL WARNS CORONAVIRUS ON CUSP OF PANDEMIC
Meanwhile, over in the Balkans, health officials in North Macedonia has confirmed its first infection in a woman who recently returned from Italy, Reuters reports.
“The patient tested positive for coronavirus… She is the first patient in North Macedonia to have tested positive for this pathogen,” said Venko Filipce, adding that the patient was in a stable condition. The woman, a Macedonian citizen, reportedly drove from Italy to North Macedonia in a van. All her fellow passengers are being tested. This comes one day after neighboring Croatia reported its first case, someone who had just visited Milan.
* * *
Update (1150ET): The CDC has reported six new cases among the group of Americans repatriated from the Diamond Princess and Wuhan, bringing the total to 45, and the total cases in the US to 59.
Though they couched the information in a weird, opaque way, perhaps to try and blunt the impact the market rally.
- U.S. CDC SAYS 14 CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19 AS OF FEB. 26, 45 CASES AMONG THOSE REPATRIATED TO U.S.
The good news is that no more cases have been identified among the general public. But it looks like the rally is starting to fade.
* * *
Update (1130ET): It’s been another relatively hectic morning for coronavirus-related news in the US. Here are some of the latest updates”
- Finland has confirmed its second case of coronavirus as the outbreaks spread into northern Europe.
- Pakistan reports first case, despite closing border with Iran
- German health minister warns we’re at the beginning of an epidemic, tells hospitals to review planning
- Brazil is worried about an interruption of medical supplies from China like facemasks (they’re not the only ones)
- White House weighs appointing coronavirus czar (though the administration has denied)
- Nice latest town to cancel Carnival celebrations
- Air China cancels flights between Beijing and Vienna through March 20
- US issues travel advisory for Iran, warns US citizens of risk of infection on top of kidnapping and detention
- HHS Secretary Azar tells Congress during testimony on Wednesday that all of the infectious disease rapid response fund is “already committed or obligated”
- House could vote on coronavirus funding plan during week of March 9
- Congress begins talks on virus emergency spending bill
- Delta Air Lines reduces flights between US and Seoul
- Brazil tracking 20 patients suspected of having the virus
- Brazil sees number of cases rising in coming days
- Lebanon health ministry confirms 2nd case
- Matteo Salvini says Italy should spend €10 billion on coronavirus aid
- Russia says it will halt issuing visas to Iranian citizens
The focus remains on Europe and the Middle East now that the number of new cases being confirmed outside China is outbumbering the number of new cases being declared in China (at least according to the ‘official’ numbers).
* * *
Update (0940ET): The Brazilian health ministry said the coronavirus patient arrived in Brazil on a plane from Paris. Exactly when isn’t known.
* * *
Update (0855ET): In the US, Dems are officially doubling-down on their push to politicize the coronavirus outbreak and use it as a cudgel against President Trump by proposing a plan calling for even more money to be spent.
According to Fox’s Chad Pergram, Chuck Schumer is planning a $8.5 billion package that he plans to hand over to the appropriations committee later on Wednesday.
Schumer preparing emergency spending pkg for coronavirus funding totaling $8.5 Billion.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) February 26, 2020
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President Trump is holding a press conference later today to discuss the outbreak. Yesterday, he said he would be handing off his administration’s $2.5 billion rescue package to Congress. President Trump has repeatedly insisted that the outbreak is under control, so we suspect that he fears a large number might spur panic.
Of course, in a situation like this, money can only go so far. As the CDC has demonstrated, containing an outbreak is more about decision-making and hard choices.
In other news, as we mentioned earlier, Germany is moving to implement some fiscal stimulus of its own.
* * *
Update (0750ET): While the Germans oppose closing borders in response to the outbreak in Italy, it appears Berlin has stepped up to rescue the market and placate economists begging them to roll out a fiscal stimulus program to stop the European economy from sliding into the gutter.
- GERMANY PLANS TO TEMPORARILY SUSPEND LIMIT ON PUBLIC BORROWING
Futures soared on the headline, which is hardly surprising, as the market has already been primed for German stimulus, even if Berlin has always held the idea at a distance. Back in September, there was all that talk about a “shadow budget”.
As sentiment plunges, WHO’s Dr. Tedros has stepped in to try and soothe rattled investors, warning that government officials, economists, infectious disease researchers and any self-styled ‘experts’ should avoid using the word ‘pandemic’ to describe the outbreak.
Yes, while it does technically meet the definition of a pandemic, that word has some seriously negative connotations which Tedros feels isn’t really appropriate here.
Italy, meanwhile, has reported its 12th death after confirmed cases soared above 300 earlier.
* * *
Update (0730ET): The UK has announced plans to start randomly testing citizens with flu-like symptoms for COVID-19. The plan is part of measures to contain the virus as the UK has managed to avoid reporting any new cases over the past week. In England, random testing will take place at 11 hospitals and 100 doctor’s offices.
“This testing will tell us whether there’s evidence of infection more widespread than we think there is. We don’t think there is at the moment,” Cosford said. He added: “The other thing it will do is, if we do get to the position of more widespread infection across the country, then it will give us early warning that that’s happening.”
So far, only 13 people have been infected.
* * *
Update (0715ET): Abe’s government has officially denied comments made by a senior IOC member who suggested that the Tokyo Games might need to be canceled if the virus is still a threat in late May. IOC member Dick Pound told the AP that “a decision would have to be made by late May” about whether to cancel the games, according to the Washington Post.
The official position of the Japanese government is that the Games will not be canceled. Besides the obvious blowback for Japan’s already sagging economy and tourism industry, cancelling the games would likely have a serious psychological impact on consumer confidence in the world’s third-largest economy.
In other Japan news, Hokkaido, a prefecture in the north ofJapan, has urged schools to temporarily close as it struggles to contain the virus after a string of new cases popped up in the area. It was the prefecture’s first order to close schools since the epidemic began.
* * *
After cementing its largest two-day percentage drop in two years (going by points, it was the biggest two-day drop ever), stocks fell in Europe Wednesday as France reported its second virus-linked death (and first French national; the first was an 80-year-old Chinese tourist), while Spain confirmed 8 new cases within 24 hours.
The Frenchman who passed away on Wednesday was one of three new cases confirmed by health authorities.
Over in the US, the CDC warned yesterday that “community spread” of the virus is “inevitable,” while President Trump and his administration continued to insist that everything is fine and that the outbreak in the US would soon die down. We also saw Croatia, Austria and Switzerland report their first cases on Tuesday following the EU health commissioner’s declaration that closing borders would be “disproportionate and ineffective.”
“We’re talking about a virus that doesn’t respect borders,” said Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza yesterday.
Are we the only ones who feel that this sounds like justification for closing the border?
Mirroring the situation on the Canary island of Tenerife, Austrian authorities placed a hotel in the Alpine city of Innsbruck under lockdown after a receptionist (an Italian who had recently visited outbreak epicenter Lombardy) tested positive, according to the Washington Post.
Just hours after Brazil confirmed the first case in South America, some of its continental neighbors are going on “maximum alert”. Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei said the country was battening down the hatches, and that its hospitals are fully stocked and supplied.
On Wednesday, Greece confirmed its first case in the city of Thessaloniki, while Iran reported 19 new deaths, bringing them, within swinging distance of the 50 deaths that a local lawmaker reported earlier this week. Confirmed cases in the revolutionary Islamic Republic have climbed to 139. According to Al Jazeera, Kuwait confirmed six more cases on Wednesday, bringing its total tally to 18. Bahrain reported three new cases, bringing its national total total to 26 as three women who recently traveled to Iran carried the virus back.
While European officials largely avoided the heavy-handed tactics used in China, government ministers urged people to avoid all “non-essential” travel as the outbreak spreads across Europe. The mystery at the center of the outbreak in Italy has compounded fears, as the lack of understanding contributes to the hysteria surrounding the outbreak.
“There is no prohibition,” said Spain’s health minister, Salvador Illa, according to El Pais. “But unless it is essential, do not go to a risk zone. It’s common sense.”
Rumors circulating around twitter yesterday claimed an official who had met with the Ayatollah only days ago had tested positive for the virus, becoming at least the second government official to catch the virus after the deputy health minister.
The Hong Kong government said it had been contacted by more than 3,000 Hong Kongers in Hubei Province, including 532 in Wuhan, asking for help getting them back to Hong Kong. In order to return to HK, the government said all Hong Kongers in Hubei must register with the government by Feb. 28.
Mongolia has become the latest neighbor to tighten its borders and restrict internal travel. The country said it would restrict travel to and from its capital, Ulaanbaatar, to other provinces until March 3. A transportation minister said the country would take precautions with other flights from Europe, Russia Turkey and Kazakhstan. Egyptair has extended its shut-down of flights to China; flights were supposed to resume on Thursday.
The Philippines, which adopted travel restrictions directed at China, said Wednesday it would also impose travel restrictions on South Korea. The government announced an immediate ban on entry to travelers from North Gyeongsang province, where the coronavirus-hit city of Daegu is located. Japan also announced that it would bar travelers who had visited Daegu or Ceongdo.
Overnight, South Korea reported 115 more cases, in keeping with its 2-3 daily updates. The new total: 1,261. That number is, of course, expected to climb over the coming days as the country begins the mass-testing of 200,000 people, including members of the cult-like church that’s found itself at the epicenter of the outbreak in Korea.
Korea also reported that an American soldier was among the 169 cases reported earlier in the day (we noted it late last night).
Israel has yet to detect the virus within its borders, but another hair-raising revelation came to light Wednesday when South Korea’s CDC confirmed that the Korean Air cabin crew infected with the coronavirus had been on a flight between Israel and Incheon.
As Shinzo Abe’s government goes all-out to keep the Olympics on track, the PM announced on Wednesday that all major sporting and cultural events in the country taking place over the next two weeks should be postponed or canceled. This comes after the International Olympic Committee said the Olympic Games would go on no matter what, even if the outbreak keeps travelers away, the Japan Times reports.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 20:00 -
- Scientists Discover HIV-Like "Mutation" Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious
Scientists Discover HIV-Like “Mutation” Which Makes Coronavirus Extremely Infectious
While mainstream scientists continue to perform mental gymnastics to insist that the new coronavirus wasn’t man-made, new research from scientists in China and Europe reveal that the disease happens to have an ‘HIV-like mutation’ which allows it to bind with human cells up to 1,000 times stronger than the Sars virus, according to SCMP.
Recall that at the end of January, a team of Indian scientists wrote in a now-retracted, scandalous paper claiming that the coronavirus may have been genetically engineered to incorporate parts of the HIV genome, writing “This uncanny similarity of novel inserts in the 2019- nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature,” meaning – it was unlikely to have occurred naturally.
Fast forward to new research by a team from Nankai University, which writes that COV-19 has an ‘HIV-like mutation’ that allows it to quickly enter the human body by binding with a receptor called ACE2 on a cell membrane.
Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.
When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola. –SCMP
“This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV [the new coronavirus] may be significantly different from the Sars coronavirus in the infection pathway,” reads the paper published this month on Chinaxiv.org – a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences which releases research papers prior to peer-review.
“This virus may use the packing mechanisms of other viruses such as HIV,” they added.
For those confused, what the latest scientific paper claims is that whereas the Coronavirus may indeed contain a specific HIV-like feature that makes it extremely infectious, that was the result of a rather bizarre “mutation.” However, since the scientists did not make the scandalous claim that Chinese scientists had created an airborne version of HIV, but instead blamed a mutation, they will likely not be forced to retract it, even if it the odds of such a “random” mutation taking place naturally are extremely small.
As a reminder, the running narrative is that the new coronavirus lie dormant in bats somewhere between 20 and 70 years, then ‘crossed over’ to humans through and unknown species – possibly a Pangolin – before it emerged at a Wuhan, China meat market roughly 900 feet from a level-4 bioweapons lab.
And what were they researching at said lab? Among other things – why Ebola and HIV can lie dormant in bats without causing diseases.
According to the new study, the ‘mutation’ can generate a structure known as a cleavage site in the new coronavirus’ spike protein, SCMP reports. “Compared to the Sars’ way of entry, this binding method is “100 to 1,000 times” as efficient, according to the study.“
The virus uses the outreaching spike protein to hook on to the host cell, but normally this protein is inactive. The cleavage site structure’s job is to cheat the human furin protein, so it will cut and activate the spike protein and cause a “direct fusion” of the viral and cellular membranes. –SCMP
(a recent paper published by Dr. Zhou Peng of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, meanwhile, is “Immunogenicity of the spike glycoprotein of Bat SARS-like coronavirus.“)
According to the report, a follow-up study from a Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhn confirmed Nankai University’s findings.
The mutation could not be found in Sars, Mers or Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes, it said.
This could be “the reason why SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than other coronaviruses”, Li wrote in a paper released on Chinarxiv on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a study by French scientist Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research on February 10, also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses.
Chinese scientists speculate that drugs targeting the fuirn enzyme could potentially hinder the virus’ replication inside the human body. Drugs up for consideration include “a series of HIV-1 therapeutic drugs such as Indinavir, Tenofovir Alafenamide, Tenofovir Disoproxil and Dolutegravir and hepatitis C therapeutic drugs including Boceprevir and Telaprevir,” according to Li’s study.
The conclusion is in line with several reports from doctors who self-administered HIV drugs after testing positive for coronavirus, however there have been no clinical tests to confirm the theory.
All perfectly “natural.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 19:45 - U.S. Intelligence Is Intervening In The 2020 Election
U.S. Intelligence Is Intervening In The 2020 Election
Authored by Jefferson Morley via TruthDig.com,
President Trump’s ongoing purge of the intelligence community, along with Bernie Sanders’ surge in the Democratic presidential race, has triggered an unprecedented intervention of U.S. intelligence agencies in the U.S. presidential election on factually dubious grounds.
Former CIA director John Brennan sees a “full-blown national security crisis” in President Trump’s latest moves against the intelligence community.
Brennan charges, “Trump is abetting a Russian covert operation to keep him in office for Moscow’s interests, not America’s.” But congressional representatives, both Democratic and Republican, who heard a briefing by the intelligence community about the 2020 election earlier this month say the case for Russian interference is “overstated.”
On February 21, it was leaked to the Washington Post that “U.S. officials,” meaning members of the intelligence community, had confidentially briefed Sanders about alleged Russian efforts to help his 2020 presidential campaign.
Special prosecutor Robert Mueller documented how the Russians intervened on Trump’s behalf in 2016, while finding no evidence of criminal conspiracy. Mueller did not investigate the Russians’ efforts on behalf of Sanders, but the Computational Propaganda Research Project at Oxford University did. In a study of social media generated by the Russia-based Internet Research Agency (IRA), the Oxford analysts found that the IRA initially generated propaganda designed to boost all rivals to Hillary Clinton in 2015. As Trump advanced, they focused almost entirely on motivating Trump supporters and demobilizing black voters. In short, the Russians helped Trump hundreds of thousand times more than they boosted Sanders.
The leak to the Post, on the eve of the Nevada caucuses, gave the opposite impression: that help for Trump and Sanders was somehow comparable. The insinuation could only have been politically motivated.
What’s driving the U.S. intelligence community intervention in presidential politics is not just fear of Trump, but fear of losing control of the presidency. From 1947 to 2017, the CIA and other secret agencies sometimes clashed with presidents, especially Presidents Kennedy, Nixon and Carter. But since the end of the Cold War, under Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama, the secret agencies had no such problem.
Under Trump, the intelligence community has seen a vast loss of influence. Trump is contemptuous of the CIA’s daily briefing. As demonstrated by his pressure campaign on Ukraine, his foreign policies are mostly transactional. Trump is not guided by the policy process or even any consistent doctrine, other than advancing his political and business interests. He’s not someone who is interested in doing business with the intelligence community.
The intelligence community fears the rise of Sanders for a different reason. The socialist senator rejects the national security ideology that guided the intelligence community in the Cold War and the war on terror. Sanders’ position is increasingly attractive, especially to young voters, and thus increasingly threatening to the former spy chiefs who yearn for a return to the pre-Trump status quo. A Sanders presidency, like a second term for Trump, would thwart that dream. Sanders is not interested in national security business as usual either.
In the face of Trump’s lawless behavior, and Sanders’ rise, the intelligence community is inserting itself into presidential politics in a way unseen since former CIA director George H.W. Bush occupied the Oval Office. Key to this intervention is the intelligence community’s self-image as a disinterested party in the 2020 election.
Former House Intelligence Committee chair Jane Harman says Trump’s ongoing purge of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is a threat to those who “speak truth to power.” As the pseudonymous former CIA officer “Alex Finley” tweeted Monday,
the “‘Deep state’ is actually the group that wants to defend rule of law (and thus gets in the way of those screaming ‘DEEP STATE’ and corrupting for their own gain).”
Self-image, however, is not the same as reality. When it comes to Trump’s corruption, Brennan and Co. have ample evidence to support their case. But the CIA is simply not credible as a “defender of the rule of law.” The Reagan-Bush Iran-contra conspiracy, the Bush-Cheney torture regime, and the Bush-Obama mass surveillance program demonstrate that the law is a malleable thing for intelligence community leaders. A more realistic take on the 2020 election is that the U.S. intelligence community is not a conspiracy but a self-interested political faction that is seeking to defend its power and policy preferences. The national security faction is not large electorally. It benefits from the official secrecy around its activities. It is assisted by generally sympathetic coverage from major news organizations.
The problem for Brennan and Co. is that “national security” has lost its power to mobilize public opinion. On both the right and the left, the pronouncements of the intelligence community no longer command popular assent.
Trump’s acquittal by the Senate in his impeachment trial was one sign. The national security arguments driving the House-passed articles of impeachment were the weakest link in a case that persuaded only one Republican senator to vote for Trump’s removal. Sanders’ success is another sign.
In the era of endless war, Democratic voters have become skeptical of national security claims – from Iraq’s non-existent weapons of mass destruction, to the notion that torture “works,” to “progress” in Afghanistan, to the supreme importance of Ukraine – because they have so often turned out to be more self-serving than true.
The prospect of a Trump gaining control of the U.S. intelligence community is scary. So is the intervention of the U.S. intelligence community in presidential politics.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/26/2020 – 19:25
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