Jan 27

Today’s News 27th January 2022

  • How A Tiny NATO Country Went Rogue & May Prevent War With Russia
    How A Tiny NATO Country Went Rogue & May Prevent War With Russia

    Authored by Clint Ehrlich,

    The President of Croatia has gone rogue! He’s trying to prevent war over Ukraine. It just might work. For background, it was already clear that the alliance was divided over how involved to be in Ukraine. America, the U.K., Poland, and the Baltic states were transferring weapons. But Germany refused to let any German-made weapons enter the conflict zone.

    Then President Biden put 8,500 troops on “high alert” – and warned he might deploy 50,000 to Eastern Europe. The question was… would NATO stand behind this ramping up of pressure? Or would troop deployments on the border of the conflict fracture the alliance?

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    We now have a preliminary answer, thanks to Croatia’s President. “Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation,” said Zoran Milanović. “On the contrary, it will recall all troops [from NATO], to the last Croatian soldier!”

    This is notable, because it isn’t coming from a Euroskeptic with a history of picking on NATO. Milanović is a member of Croatia’s center-left Social Democrat party, which is strongly pro-European. But even many sympathetic to Europe want no part of conflict with Russia.

    Mr. Milanović went further, and made two points that are almost universally banned in the West.

    1. He pointed out that the Ukraine conflict is happening on Russia’s door step

    2. He said that NATO “must reach a deal that will take account of the security interests of Russia.”

    These points violate the Western orthodoxy on the Ukraine conflict. It is forbidden to recognize that Russia may have legitimate security interests. It is anathema to propose reaching a diplomatic solution instead of fighting a proxy war.

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    Unsurprisingly, Milanović is now a target. His own Foreign Minister is trying to have him canceled. “The president does not speak for Croatia, but for himself,” FM Grlić-Radman said. “We are and will remain a loyal member of NATO.”

    There is a political divide here, because Grlić-Radman is from a center-right party within Croatia. But there is a deeper divide: one about whether to mindlessly follow the Western consensus or to be “Croatia First!” Milanović is speaking like a patriot.

    The question now becomes: How many other patriots are there in NATO? Will other heads of state speak out and declare that their countries have no appetite for war with Russia?

    Germany’s Navy chief cost himself his career with that message. Milanović just risked his reputation. Who will be next?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/27/2022 – 02:00

  • JFK Revisited: Through The Looking Glass With Oliver Stone
    JFK Revisited: Through The Looking Glass With Oliver Stone

    Authored by Edward Curtin via Off-Guardian.org,

    Two of the greatest speeches ever delivered by an American president bookend this extraordinary documentary film. It opens with President John F. Kennedy giving the commencement speech at American University on June 10, 1963 and it closes with his civil rights speech to the American people the following day.

    It is a deft artistic touch that suggests the brevity of JFK’s heroic efforts for world peace and domestic racial equality and justice before he was assassinated in a public execution in Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963.

    In the former anti-war speech, he called for the end to the Cold War with the Soviet Union, the halt to the arms race, and the abolishment of war and its weapons, especially nuclear.  He said:

    What kind of peace do I mean? What kind of peace do we seek? Not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of the slave. I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children – not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women – not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.

    In the latter address to the American people, having just sent National Guard troops to the University of Alabama to make sure two black students were admitted despite the racist objections of Governor George Wallace, his words transcended the immediate issue at the university and called for the end to the immoral and illegal discrimination against African Americans in every area of the nation’s life.

    He said:

    One hundred years of delay have passed since President Lincoln freed the slaves, yet their heirs, their grandsons, are not fully free. They are not yet freed from the bonds of injustice. They are not yet freed from social and economic oppression. And this Nation, for all its hopes and all its boasts, will not be fully free until all its citizens are free.

    Having framed the documentary thus, Oliver Stone and the screenwriter James DiEugenio do a masterful job of explaining what really happened in the years of Kennedy’s short presidency, why he was such a great threat to the CIA and the military-industrial complex, what really happened when they killed him, and how the Warren Commission, the CIA, and the corporate media have worked hand-in-hand to this day to cover up the truth.

    The current two-hour version of JFK Revisited: Through the Looking Glass will be followed in a month or so by a more detailed four-hour version.

    The importance of this film is twofold:  It establishes an updated historical record since the Assassination Records Review Board (AARB) was established as a result of Stone’s 1991 breakthrough film, JFK, which forced the release of previously hidden documents, and, more importantly, it emphatically shows why JFK’s assassination is crucial for understanding the United States today.

    For without a clear and unambiguous accounting of why he was killed and by whom (I do not mean the actual shooters), and who in the government and media has covered it up, we are doomed to repeat the past as this country has been doing ever since.

    Because JFK Revisited assiduously documents the essential claims of Stone’s 1991 film and adds to it with the latest factual material released since the ARRB required the release of the previously secret documents, the film, like the JFK film before it, will be denounced by the same media/intelligence forces that slammed the earlier movie.

    Back then the bogus critiques claimed Stone’s imagination had gone wild and he distorted history, so now the best way for those critics to rip this evidence-filled documentary is to omit mentioning its contents and to continue calling him a conspiracy-obsessed guy still intent on promoting his fantasies.

    Once it was his “fictions” that were ridiculous; now it is his facts, despite his research colleague and screenwriter James DiEugenio’s exhaustive confirmation of the facts that will be released later this year when the annotated script is published.

    JFK Revisited proves with facts that Stone was right in 1991. Even then, but little known, is that JFK was also accompanied by a book of the film that included copious research notes. But facts don’t seem to matter to Stone’s critics, then or now.  They are too damning.

    So let’s examine the documentary.

    It opens with Kennedy speaking at American University and quickly switches to a montage of condensed news reports of the shooting in Dallas.

    Kennedy’s death, people’s reactions, Oswald’s arrest, his claim that he’s a “patsy,”  Ruby’s killing of Oswald, JFK’s funeral, reports that Kennedy was shot from the front and the rear, the formation of the Warren Commission and the naming of its members, including most significantly the former Director of the CIA Allen Dulles whom Kennedy had fired, the Commission’s finding that Oswald alone killed the president, that there was no conspiracy, the Zapruder film, and NBC’s Chet Huntley saying that the assassination is thoroughly documented (in the Warren Commission Report) and it’s all there for anyone who would like to pursue it.

    Huntley’s ironically false statement is followed by a jump cut to Oliver Stone in Dealey Plaza telling how it wasn’t all there at all, that The Warren Report was a sham, and how in the intervening years plenty of new information and evidence has been revealed by the Church Commission Hearings in 1975  that uncovered the CIA and FBI’s machinations in assassination plots at home and abroad; followed a decade later by the public showing of the Zapruder film and the subsequent House Select Committee on Assassinations’ (HSCA) finding that there was probably a conspiracy in Kennedy’s murder.

    Although the Warren Report came under questioning during these years, the HSCA sealed half a million “dangerous records” until 2029.  But as a result of Stone’s JFK film in 1991, the government was pressured to pass The John F. Kennedy Records Collection Act with its Assassination Records Review Board (ARRB).

    The ARRB ordered the release of the secret documents within four years.  Over two million pages were released and they are housed at the National Archives, although certain documents are still being withheld.

    One could argue that the truth about the assassination was obvious from the start and that only elements within the U.S. government could have carried out this crime and covered it up.

    That only simple logic was needed to solve the crime because from the start the Warren Commission made no sense with its magic bullet explanation, and that only national security operatives could have withdrawn the president’s security protection, etc. That new documents are not needed. That arguing any of this is just a pseudo-debate and a waste of time.

    There is cogency to that argument, but Stone prefers to take a different route and use the released records to bolster his argument and establish a cinematic record for future generations.  He is making accessible in a two-hour movie a powerful historical lesson that should be seen by everyone; it is one absent from the history books students read in school.

    That his enemies will try to dissuade the public from viewing the film is not surprising, for doing so with the supporting testimonies of so many experts and the presentation of the suppressed official documents make these critics look like fools, or simply the tools they are.

    For while this film relies on many documents forced out of the government’s own vaults and therefore hoists the critics with their own petard, it is also a reminder that the media is deeply infiltrated with CIA plants and assets, as has been shown by the revelations of Operation Mockingbird, a program that surely never ended but has only intensified today’s propaganda.

    One glance at the headlines of reviews of this film since its release two months ago reveals the vituperative personal nature of the attacks on Stone, showing that the film’s evidentiary content is of no interest to the reviewers. Ad hominem attacks will suffice.

    Even the one review I read previous to writing this – sent to me by someone who considered it to be positive – was a sly piece of disinformation disguised as praise.  The enemies of truth are not just vulgar morons but very sophisticated tricksters.

    Let me break down the evidence presented in the film in order of appearance:

    • First, the so-called three bullets and the magic bullet.

    • Second, the alleged rifle and new evidence confirming that Lee Oswald was not on the 6th floor of the Texas School Book Depository.

    • Third, the autopsy, its faked photographs, and the pressure placed on the Parkland Hospital doctors to change what they saw with their own eyes.

    • Fourth, Oswald’s history working with the CIA and FBI, his fake defection to the Soviet Union, the coverup of the intelligence agencies’ use of Oswald from start to finish, and the other plots to assassinate Kennedy in Chicago and Tampa that follow the same template as Oswald in Dallas.

    • Fifth, why Kennedy was murdered.

    None of these issues are analyzed in some half-assed theoretical way, but are supported by documentary facts – evidence, in other words. As Stone says, “Conspiracy theories are now conspiracy facts.” 

    Nevertheless, those writers whose review headlines I mentioned prefer to call Stone “looney,” a “conspiracy quack,” etc. as they ignore the facts, new and old.

    THE MAGIC BULLET

    The Warren Report claimed that since three empty shells were found on the floor of the sixth floor of The Texas Book Depository that only three bullets were fired, and from that spot.  The FBI claimed that all three bullets hit inside the car, two hitting Kennedy and one Gov. Connolly.  But evidence showed that one bullet missed the car, striking the curb near the underpass, and causing a minor injury to on-looker James Tague.

    This forced the Commission into a dilemma, and so Arlen Specter, the future long-standing senator, conjured up the so-called Magic Bullet Theory, claiming that one bullet hit and passed through Kennedy only to hit Connolly, zigzagging absurdly and causing seven wounds.

    It was ridiculous but conveniently avoided admitting that there had to be more shots and therefore a conspiracy.  The Magic bullet – CE 399 – was said to have been found in pristine condition on a stretcher in Parkland Hospital.  This bullet was foundational to the Warren Commission’s case, but Stone shows with released documents that there was no chain of custody for this bullet and that lies were told about it.  He further shows how this magically found pristine bullet could not have passed through two men and emerge like new.

    The film immediately demolishes the Warren Commission’s basic premise.

    THE “RIFLE” WITH NO OSWALD ON THE SIXTH FLOOR

    And then this: the film shows that the rifle Oswald is alleged to have used and ordered through the mail with its paper trail (he could have walked into a store and bought one without leaving evidence) does not look like the famous highly questionable photos of Oswald posing with a rifle in the back yard.

    But more importantly than various other anomalies concerning the rifle(s-?), such as the absence of Oswald’s hand prints, is the new evidence the film documents about Oswald’s non-presence on the sixth floor.

    Researcher Barry Ernest went to the National Archives to find the original testimony of Victoria Adams who worked on the fourth floor and knew Oswald.  He discovered that it was missing and that the Warren Commission had destroyed the tapes.  So he went and found Adams, and what she told him contradicted the Commission’s findings.

    It was claimed that after shooting Kennedy, Oswald quickly went down the back stairs to the second floor lunch room.  Adams told Ernest that immediately after the assassination she went down the back stairs from the fourth floor and saw no one. Ernest found corroborating evidence from two other women, Sandra Styles who accompanied Vicki Adams down the stairs and Vicki’s supervisor Dorothy Garner who saw them descend, to back Adams’ testimony, about which the Warren Commission lied.

    Further proof that Oswald could not have shot Kennedy from the sixth floor window since he wasn’t there.

    THE HEAD WOUND AND THE AUTOPSY COVERUP

    With video testimonies from Doctors Perry, Clark, and Crenshaw from Parkland Hospital, Stone shows how the original testimonies placed the neck and head wounds to Kennedy coming from the front, but that pressure was applied to Perry to recant, which he did, only to later to admit his recantation was a lie and that the wound in Kennedy’s neck was an entrance wound.

    Then with the autopsy, we learn how it was controlled not by forensic pathologists experienced in doing autopsies on gunshot victims, but by shadowy military and intelligence figures.

    We learn of another magic bullet that allegedly was found in Parkland Hospital where it was claimed it fell out of a back wound of the president.  But this bullet later turns out to be The Magic Bullet after further legerdemain by Warren Commission member Gerald Ford.

    This stuff is highly comical if it weren’t so sinister, and it is surely “unbelievable” as the eminent forensic pathologist Dr. Cyril Wecht tells the viewer. That one of the autopsy doctors burned his notes and another had his disappear might not be new knowledge, but to learn that two honest FBI agents who witnessed the autopsy and were not called as witnesses by the Warren Commission – James Sibert and Francis X. O’Neill, Jr. – were shown the autopsy photos in depositions taken by the Assassinations Record Review Board in 1997 and claimed that Kennedy’s head had been doctored to conceal his gaping rear head wound is startlingly new evidence.

    As is the important diagram Sibert drew of a large head wound in the back of the head supporting a shot from the front.

    As is the ARRB’s declassification of forty witnesses’ testimony that they saw a gaping hole in the back of the President’s head consistent with a shot from the front.

    As is the White House photographer Robert Knudsen’s admission thirty-years later that the photos he took were after the head had been doctored to conceal the wound.

    As is the evidence that the autopsy photos of JFK’s brain in the National archives are fakes.

    Thus, the film emphatically shows that the new forensic evidence proves that there were multiple shooters and that Oswald, who was not on the sixth floor, was not one of them.

    Oswald, because he was killed by the F.B.I. affiliated Jack Ruby two days later, never had a trial, but if he did, in light of all we know now, he would never be convicted, yet the media, led by The New York Times, Washington Post, CBS, etc., have spent decades covering up the truth and claiming Oswald killed Kennedy, just as they have with their equally bogus claim that Sirhan Sirhan killed RFK.

    They can not be so ignorant not to know they are spouting absurdities, so one can only conclude they are lying to protect the killers.  That they are accomplices after the fact.

    OSWALD THE PATSY AND HIS CONNECTIONS TO THE CIA AND FBI

    This section contains much evidentiary information about Oswald that is in the 1991 film. That he was associated with David Ferrie, Guy Bannister, and Clay Shaw (alias Betrand), all of whom were FBI and CIA affiliated. That he was a provocateur playing multiple roles, one day an anti-Castro protester and the next day a Castro supporter.

    That he was trained as a Marine at a top-secret military base in Japan that ran U-2 spy flights run by the CIA over the Soviet Union. That his defection to the Soviet Union was likely a part of a CIA defector program. That after marrying a Russian wife, he was welcomed back into the U.S. by the government he “betrayed” and greeted upon his arrival by an intelligence asset who got him to Dallas to hook up with another CIA operative, George de Mohrenschildt.

    Everything we learn about Oswald makes it clear he was working for the CIA and FBI while simultaneously being on their watch list for years. The CIA denials that this was true were lies.

    We learn that the ARRB had a hard time getting the CIA to hand over documents on Oswald, that both the FBI and CIA lifted flashes on Oswald in early October 1963 which allowed him access to the Dallas parade route without attention.  We learn that the Secret Service destroyed their threat sheets for 1963, those being reports of JFK’s prior trips and threats associated with them.

    Essentially, we learn again with documentation what was in the earlier film, JFK, and more; all of which proves that Oswald was being run by the CIA and that he was used as a patsy after the assassination.  We see the similarities to the earlier plots on the President’s life in Chicago (see JFK and the Unspeakable by James W. Douglass re the Chicago plot) and Tampa that are eerily alike to that in Dallas.

    We learn everything essential, and yet this is just the two-hour version of the film.

    WHY WAS KENNEDY KILLED, WHO BENEFITED, AND WHO HAD THE POWER TO COVER IT UP?

    In the conclusion of the film, we are told all the things that Kennedy did that made him an arch-enemy of the CIA and the military. Kennedy, who was hated by the CIA even before the Bay of Pigs disaster, afterwards fired the CIA Director Allen Dulles and his subordinates and promised to splinter the CIA into a thousand pieces and scatter it to the winds after he realized that they tricked him with the Bay of Pigs.

    In 1961, they also killed those Kennedy greatly admired and was working with on issues of decolonialization: Patrice Lumumba of the Congo and the Secretary General of the United Nations, Dag Hammarskjöld.

    Less than eleven months into office, JFK was faced with a savage enemy from within that he didn’t control.  He told the French ambassador that he was in no way involved in the CIA’s attempts to assassinate French President Charles de Gaulle, his ally, and that he had no control over the CIA.

    After JFK’s assassination, Allen Dulles told journalist Willie Morris that Kennedy “thought he was a god.”  This from the man who had his henchmen kill with impunity and loved the Nazis with whom he worked and brought into the U.S. government (see David Talbot’s The Devil’s Chessboard).

    In a document uncovered by the ARRB called the Northwoods Document, the Joint Chiefs of Staff recommended to Kennedy that he approve a false flag operation to start a war with Cuba by blowing up an empty plane over Cuba and blaming it on Castro and setting off bombs in American cities killing Americans for the same purpose.

    Of course, Kennedy refused, only intensifying their hatred of him.

    Then when he wouldn’t bomb Cuba during the missile crisis in October 1962, gave his American University speech the following June, sought reconciliation with the Soviet Union, and decided to withdraw from Vietnam, the die was cast: He had to die.

    Who has benefited from his death?

    The war manufacturers first and foremost, for they have been reaping their bloody profits ever since. The war against Vietnam was just the start, for the wars and alarms of war have never stopped.

    And the CIA, working as the leading edge for the military around the world, continuing the Pax Americana for Wall St. and the power hungry millionaires and billionaires who hate democracy.

    And of course, the media companies that are stenographers for the CIA, the politicians who pimp for them, and the vast interconnected power elites who cash in while playing innocent.

    Finally, without having to explicitly say it, JFK Revisited makes it emphatically clear by presenting evidence that the criminals who committed this terrible crime, together with their media accomplices, were the only ones able to cover it up.

    Of course, there is more to this powerful and important film than I have mentioned here, all carefully laid out and documented.  Those who criticized Stone’s earlier movie and continue to hurl insults at him rather than consider the evidence he and DiEugenio present are the worst kind of anti-intellectual sycophants.

    If they were forced to dispute the content of this film step-by-step, that would simply expose their agendas, something they must keep hidden to safeguard their establishment credentials.

    JFK Revisited ends with an important reminder from David Talbot that the truth of this film about an event that took place long ago is so essential to understand because of its contemporary relevance. It is not dead history. The “horror show” we are now experiencing has its roots in JFK’s public execution on the streets of Dallas, when the killers sent the most obvious message:

    Obey or you will suffer the same fate.

    The United States is still controlled by the forces that killed President Kennedy – the CIA and those who comprise the national security state that wage war at home and abroad in contradistinction to everything JFK was trying to accomplish. Their cowardly allies in the media are everywhere.

    There is a reason why, as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. tells the viewer near the film’s end, that all across the world there are streets named and statues erected to honor President Kennedy: for people know that he was a brave man of peace and human reconciliation and that he died at the hands of scoundrels intent on stopping his work.

    With JFK Revisited, Oliver Stone has truly honored this fallen hero.  Like Jim Garrison in JFK, he offers this film as his closing statement to the jury, which is all of us.  Here is the evidence.  Consider it closely.  Render your verdict.

    By doing so, we may yet take back the country from the forces of evil.

    Bravo to Stone and DiEugenio!  They have created a tour de force.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/27/2022 – 00:05

  • "Spooky" Object Flashes Radio Waves In Our Galactic Backyard
    “Spooky” Object Flashes Radio Waves In Our Galactic Backyard

    A mysterious object, unlike the world, has ever seen, is unleashing massive bursts of energy every 20 minutes and hides in our galactic backyard.  

    Astrophysicist Natasha Hurley-Walker discovered the “spooky” object in late 2020 when she and her colleagues were scanning radio signals across the cosmos. 

    “It was kind of spooky for an astronomer because there’s nothing known in the sky that does that,” Natasha Hurley-Walker, an astronomer at Curtin University and the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research in Australia, told NBC News. The research was published Wednesday in the journal Nature. 

    “This object was appearing and disappearing over a few hours during our observations. 

    “The occurrences have been seen before — usually as very quick events that flash on and off within seconds or milliseconds or as longer pulses that last days — but radio transients hadn’t previously been detected appearing and disappearing over a few hours,” Hurley-Walker said. 

    The object is probably a neutron star or, as some astronomers call it, a “dead” star because it has run out of fuel and collapsed. 

    She said the object is about “4,000 lightyears away,” which is “really quite close to us” considered to be “in our galactic backyard.”

    Another student researching the mysterious object from Curtin University, Tyrone O’Doherty, said, “somehow it’s converting magnetic energy to radio waves much more effectively than anything we’ve seen before.” 

    Whatever the mystery object is, so far, doesn’t appear to be an alien spaceship heading to planet Earth on an invasion mission — something left-leaning Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman theorized half a decade ago could be what the global economy needs to unleash a wave of fiscal stimulus (COVID did that). 

    Maybe with the US economy on the cusp of a recession, if the Federal Reserve embarks on an aggressive rate hike cycle, an alien invasion and or even war with Russia are some of the excuses to unleash another wave of fiscal stimulus.  

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 23:45

  • Greenwald: The Neocons' Primary War Tactic – Branding Opponents Of US Intervention As Traitors
    Greenwald: The Neocons’ Primary War Tactic – Branding Opponents Of US Intervention As Traitors

    Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com,

    One of the most bizarre but important dynamics of Trump-era U.S. politics is that the most fanatical war-hungry neocons, who shaped Bush/Cheney militarism, have become the most popular pundits and thought leaders in American liberalism. They have not changed in the slightest — they are employing the same tactics they have always invoked, and for the same causes — but they have correctly perceived that their agenda is better served by migrating back to the Democratic Party which originally spawned their bloodthirsty ideology.

    Former Bush White House speechwriter David Frum speaks to MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough about Russia, Nov. 30, 2021

    The excuse offered by Democrats for their embrace of neocons — we did it only as a temporary coalition of convenience to oppose Trump — is false for many reasons. This unholy alliance pre-dated Trump. In 2014 — long before anyone envisioned Trump descending down an escalator on his path to the White House — the journalist Jacob Heilbrunn wrote a New York Times op-ed entitled “The Next Act of the Neocons.” He predicted, correctly as it turned out, that “the neocons may be preparing a more brazen feat: aligning themselves with Hillary Rodham Clinton and her nascent presidential campaign, in a bid to return to the driver’s seat of American foreign policy.”

    The corporate media outlets consumed most voraciously by liberals are filled to the brim with war-loving neocons. Liberals catapult their books to the top of best-seller lists, spread their viral tweets, build their credibility into contracts with CNN and NBC News or stints as columnists for The New York Times and The Washington Post, and giddily applaud their cover stories for The Atlantic and The New Yorker.

    Bill Kristol’s frequent appearances on MSNBC are due to his high levels of popularity among its liberal audience. One of the most beloved hosts on that network is the former spokesperson of the Bush/Cheney White House and 2004 Bush campaign, Nicolle Wallace. The Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson and Steve Schmidt went from producing commercials in 2002 accusing War on Terror critics of being on the side of Al Qaeda to wallowing in “generational wealth” from gullible liberal donors giddy over their similar Trump-era ads accusing their enemies of being Kremlin agents and traitors. Two of The Washington Post‘s most popular-among-liberal columnists are Jennifer Rubin and supreme war advocate (from a safe distance for him and his family) Max Boot. Security state officials like former CIA Director John Brennan, former Bush CIA and NSA Director Michael Hayden, and former National Intelligence Director James Clapper became liberal TV stars with their endless accusations that various Trump supporters were unpatriotic and treasonous. And on and on and on.

    But perhaps the most influential and beloved pundit in U.S. liberal political life now is former Bush White House speechwriter David Frum, now at The Atlantic and CNN. His cover stories for that magazine warning that Trump is an unprecedented evil (which has the convenient benefit of absolving him and the rest of the D.C. establishment of all their past sins) were passed around and celebrated as if they were this generation’s Dead Sea scrolls. He frequently appears on CNN and MSNBC to speak solemnly about matters of war, authoritarianism, and patriotism, where he is treated like an elder statesman and the moral conscience of America. He was one of seemingly millions of charlatans who cashed in with a Trump-era book warning of the unique evils of the Orange Hitler; “Trumpocalypse,” his Amazon page promised, “is both a warning of danger and a guide to reform that will be read and discussed for years to come.” He catapulted from roughly 300,000 Twitter followers at the start of the Trump presidency to close to 1 million now. His tweets accusing people of being unpatriotic and treasonous routinely go viral among liberals. Democrats cannot get enough of David Frum and his worm-like tactics.

    There are many common characteristics tying these neocons together and forming a cogent ideological strain. Two of the most toxic of these have been on full display over the last month. The first is that they are always — in every case — in favor of any opportunities for the U.S. to involve itself in a new war. You wind up a neocon, and they start inventing excuses for why the U.S. must either bomb and invade other countries or enter a new proxy war to arm and fund other countries to do so for it. It is, therefore, unnecessary to point out that they are all not just in favor of U.S. involvement in a potential war between Russia and Ukraine but fanatical and giddy about it.

    Neocons derive purpose, self-esteem and arousal from watching other people’s children fight and die in wars. In 1776, Adam Smith warned of this demented mindset in The Wealth of Nations:

    In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace. They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war.

    But the other, related attribute that binds them together is the way neocons smear anyone who opposes their plots to involve the U.S. in new wars as traitors, on the side of whichever Bad Leader they want (others) to fight. Frum is the most enthusiastic purveyor of this sleazy tactic, one he has perfected over more than two decades. Back in 2003, right after he left the Bush White House where he had authored speeches advocating for an invasion of Iraq and a broader War on Terror, he wrote a National Review article accusing right-wing opponents of the Iraq War of being on the side of America’s enemies. Aptly entitled “Unpatriotic Conservatives,” Frum cited Pat Buchanan, Robert Novak, Justin Raimondo and other anti-war “paleoconservatives” who went beyond what Frum deemed permissible dissent — namely, questioning how the U.S. could best topple Saddam’s government — and into treason:

    The antiwar conservatives have gone far, far beyond the advocacy of alternative strategies. They have made common cause with the left-wing and Islamist antiwar movements in this country and in Europe. They deny and excuse terror. They espouse a potentially self-fulfilling defeatism. They publicize wild conspiracy theories. And some of them explicitly yearn for the victory of their nation’s enemies.

    One of the crimes committed by these unpatriotic conservatives, argued Frum, was their willingness to join with anti-war voices on the left. “Common cause: The websites of the antiwar conservatives approvingly cite and link to the writings of John Pilger, Robert Fisk, Noam Chomsky, Ted Rall, Gore Vidal, Alexander Cockburn, and other anti-Americans of the far Left,” the Canadian-immigrant-turned-Super-American-Patriot wrote.

    Condemning Buchanan’s version of “America First” foreign policy — which caused the former Nixon White House aide to become one of the most vocal opponents of the new war which Frum and his neocon comrades were desperate to send mostly working-class American families to go fight — Frum condemned these anti-war conservatives of being guilty of every bigotry he could think of: racism, anti-Hispanic animus, and anti-Semitism. He concluded his lengthy accusatory screed with rhetoric that should sound very familiar to anyone who has heard Frum cast similar aspersions over the last five years toward anyone not as obsessed with Trump as he is, or more recently, not as eager as he is to send other people’s kids or American resources to fight Russia:

    They began by hating the neoconservatives. They came to hate their party and this president. They have finished by hating their country.

    War is a great clarifier. It forces people to take sides. The paleoconservatives have chosen — and the rest of us must choose too. In a time of danger, they have turned their backs on their country. Now we turn our backs on them.

    This rhetorical tactic — impugning the patriotism and loyalty of one’s opponents — is now the dominant theme in American liberalism precisely because liberals are now led by neocons. Under this rubric, anyone (on the right or the left) who opposed Hillary Clinton and then Joe Biden during the Trump years was deemed not just wrong but treasonous: a Kremlin agent. That included Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein, WikiLeaks, leftist critics of Democrats, right-wing critics of Democrats, and in general anyone who echoed President Obama’s long-standing view that Russia did not pose a serious threat to the U.S. I cannot count the number of times I have been accused of being a Kremlin agent or asset not by random social media trolls but by prominent Democratic Party and liberal media and political figures for expressing those views.

    That is now, by far, the favorite attack against anyone who believes that Ukrainian borders are not important enough to U.S. interests to involve the U.S. in a war. The most vocal media opponent of U.S. involvement in Ukraine has been Fox News’ Tucker Carlson (though, as usual these days, war skepticism is also found on many Fox shows, including Laura Ingraham’s, where I recently appeared to make that case, but almost never on CNN or MSNBC). Carlson, on an almost nightly basis, has posed the question few others in corporate media are willing to ask: why is Ukraine a sufficiently vital interest to the U.S. to risk lives, resources and potentially war with Russia in defense of it?

    As punishment for arguing against the neocons’ latest plan to involve the U.S. in a new war, Carlson has been widely vilified as a Kremlin asset or, at best, a mouthpiece. “You’re going to hear a lot of lying about Putin’s War from Putin apologists on the Carlson right and the Greenwald left,” warned Frum, adding: “Putin apologists in US, UK, Germany, etc. should not be allowed to get away with hanging Putin’s War on any other neck.” A former Obama official and now-Democratic Congressman from New Jersey who is often a voice for war — Tom Malinowski (who, ironically, was a top official of Human Rights Watch before running for office) — claimed on Monday that his office is being inundated with calls demanding that he and the U.S. “side with Russia,” and Malinowski asserts that Carlson is somehow to blame for this. That insinuation of treason predictably led to an immediate appearance on CNN, where Malinowski’s claims were converted into on-screen graphics from CNN suggesting that the Fox host is not on the side of America but its enemies:

    CNN’s New Day, Jan. 25, 2021

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThis framework is hardly new. In 2018, The Guardian published an article headlined: “Tucker Carlson says he’s rooting for Russia in conflict with Ukraine.” As usual, it was Frum who led the way in pushing this narrative of treason. “The endorsement of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine delivered tonight by Tucker Carlson is a pretty specialized form of Trump admiration,” the grizzled tough guy wrote back then, adding: “it’s not characteristic of very many of those who cast that misguided vote in 2016.” In 2019, a Media Matters employee whose job is to watch Fox News copied Frum’s tactic by writing: “Tucker Carlson defends Vladimir Putin and says American media hate the United States more than Putin.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 23:25

  • 'Milkflation' Fears Mount As Supply Dwindles, Dairy Group Warns
    ‘Milkflation’ Fears Mount As Supply Dwindles, Dairy Group Warns

    Breakfast is the most important meal of the day, as it replenishes the body’s supply of glucose to boost energy until lunch while providing other essential nutrients. The first meal of the day usually consists of eggs, bacon, toast, fresh-squeezed orange juice, coffee, and milk. 

    Today, breakfast foods are becoming expensive as food inflation soars to a decade high. Earlier this week, we noted how orange juice prices are rocketing higher due to supply woes in Florida. Now consumers must prepare for ‘milkflation’. 

    This week, a new industry report from the National Milk Producers Federation warns milk supply is falling and isn’t going to recover in the near term, which could unleash dairy inflation. 

    The dominant features of the basic U.S. dairy situation continue to be tighter milk production, record export volumes, higher prices, sluggish domestic consumption, and dropping inventories.

    Total dairy cows and total milk production in the United States were both lower than a year earlier during the September-November rolling quarter.

    December prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey were the highest monthly prices since 2014; they, as well as December butter and cheese prices, were all among the highest observed during all months since the beginning of the year 2000. The long period of tough market conditions from 2014 until recently constitutes a major reason for the production contraction that’s driving the current situation.

    The crux of the problem is the pandemic-related issues, such as dairy cows becoming too expensive to feed, so farmers reduced their herds by sending animals to slaughterhouses. The remaining cows are being fed less, which means lower milk output. Compound that with rising labor and energy costs, margin compression is hitting farmers where it hurts: the pocketbook. 

    Milkflation is expected to persist “well into 2022,” the industry group said. Rising wholesale prices are already impacting supermarket prices where consumers are paying some of the highest average prices since 2015. 

    Add milk to the latest breakfast item to experience inflationary price pressures. Other breakfast-designated commodities, such as oranges, lean hogs, wheat, and coffee, have risen over the last year due to supply-chain disruptions and bad weather has kept supplies low. 

    Rising breakfast costs come as inflation for households hit a 40 year high in December, a 7% spike from a year earlier. Real wages are being wiped out as households become frustrated as their purchasing power slumps. Much of this anger has been channeled at President Biden as his polling numbers plummet. 

    The Direxion Breakfast Commodities Strategy exchange-traded fund is set to release an exchange-traded fund that focuses on coffee, orange juice, wheat, and lean-hog futures to allow speculators to play the inflation breakfast trade. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 23:05

  • Yemen Conflict: Blowback Of Obama's Botched Syria Policy
    Yemen Conflict: Blowback Of Obama’s Botched Syria Policy

    Submitted by Nauman Sadiq,

    After Arab Spring protests erupted in the Middle East in 2011, toppling longtime dictators of the Arab World, including Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Yemenis also gathered in the capital’s squares demanding removal of Ali Abdullah Saleh.

    Instead of conceding to protesters’ fervent demand of holding free and fair elections to ascertain democratic aspirations of demonstrators, however, the Obama administration adopted the convenient course of replacing Yemen’s longtime autocrat with a Saudi stooge Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi.

    Having the reputation of a “wily Arabian fox” and being a Houthi himself, Ali Abdullah Saleh wasn’t the one to sit idly by and retire from politics in ignominy. He colluded with the Houthi rebels and incited them to take advantage of the chaos and political vacuum created after the revolution to come out of their northern Saada stronghold and occupy the capital Sanaa in September 2014. Meanwhile, while events were unfolding in Yemen in the aftermath of the Arab Spring movements, the Saudi-Iran conflict in the Middle East region was also exacerbating. Saudi Arabia, which was vying for power as the leader of Sunni bloc against the Shia-led Iran in the regional geopolitics, was staunchly against the invasion of Iraq by the Bush administration in 2003.

    Image via FP

    The Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein constituted a Sunni Arab bulwark against Iran’s meddling in the Arab World. But after Saddam was ousted from power in 2003 and subsequently when elections were held in Iraq which were swept by Shia-dominated parties, Iraq has now been led by a Shia-majority government that has become a steadfast regional ally of Iran. Consequently, Iran’s sphere of influence now extends all the way from territorially contiguous Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the Mediterranean coast.

    The Saudi royal family was resentful of Iran’s encroachment on the traditional Arab heartland. Therefore, when protests broke out against the Shia-led Syrian government in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, the Gulf States along with their regional Sunni allies, Turkey and Jordan, and the Western patrons gradually militarized the protests to dismantle the Iranian resistance axis comprised of Iran, Syria and their Lebanon-based proxy, Hezbollah.

    The decade-long conflict in Syria that gave birth to myriads of militant groups, including the Islamic State, and after the conflict spilled across the border into neighboring Iraq in early 2014 was directly responsible for the spate of Islamic State-inspired terror attacks in the West from 2015 to 2017.

    Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in August 2011 to June 2014, when the Islamic State overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq, an informal pact existed between the Western powers, their regional Arab and Turk allies and jihadists of the Middle East against the Iranian resistance axis. In accordance with the pact, militants were trained and armed in the training camps located in the border regions of Turkey and Jordan to battle the Syrian government.

    This arrangement of an informal pact between the Western powers and the jihadists of the Middle East against the Iran-allied forces worked well up to August 2014, when the Obama Administration made a volte-face on its previous regime change policy in Syria and began conducting air strikes against one group of militants battling the Syrian government, the Islamic State, after the latter overstepped its mandate in Syria and overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq from where the US had withdrawn its troops only a couple of years ago in December 2011.

    After this reversal of policy in Syria by the Western powers and the subsequent Russian military intervention on the side of the Syrian government in September 2015, the momentum of jihadists’ expansion in Syria and Iraq stalled, and they felt that their Western patrons had committed a treachery against the jihadists’ cause, hence they were infuriated and rose up in arms to exact revenge for this betrayal.

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    If we look at the chain of events, the timing of the spate of terror attacks against the West was critical: the Islamic State overran Mosul in June 2014, the Obama Administration began conducting airstrikes against the Islamic State’s targets in Iraq and Syria in August 2014, and after a lull of almost a decade since the Madrid and London bombings in 2004 and 2005, respectively, the first such incident of terrorism occurred on the Western soil at the offices of Charlie Hebdo in January 2015, and then the Islamic State carried out the audacious November 2015 Paris attacks, the March 2016 Brussels bombings, the June 2016 truck-ramming incident in Nice, and three horrific terror attacks took place in the United Kingdom within a span of less than three months in 2017, and after that the Islamic State carried out the Barcelona attack in August 2017, and then another truck-ramming atrocity occurred in Lower Manhattan in October 2017 that was also claimed by the Islamic State.

    More to the point, the dilemma that the jihadists and their regional backers faced in Syria was quite unique: in the wake of the false-flag Ghouta chemical weapons attacks in Damascus in August 2013, the stage was all set for yet another no-fly zone and “humanitarian intervention” a la Gaddafi’s Libya, as Obama had unequivocally stated that a chemical weapons attack by the Bashar al-Assad government was a “red line” for his administration.

    The war hounds were waiting for a finishing blow and then-Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former Saudi intelligence chief Bandar bin Sultan were shuttling between the Western capitals to lobby for the military intervention. Francois Hollande, then the president of France, had already announced his intentions and David Cameron, then the prime minister of the UK, was also onboard.

    Here it should be remembered that even during the Libyan intervention, the Obama administration’s policy was a bit ambivalent and France under the leadership of Nicolas Sarkozy, then the president of France, had taken the lead role. In Syria’s case, however, the British parliament forced David Cameron to seek a vote for military intervention in the House of Commons before committing the British troops and air force to Syria.

    Taking cue from the British parliament, the US Congress also compelled Obama to seek approval before another ill-conceived military intervention, and since both the administrations lacked the requisite majority in their respective parliaments and the public opinion was also fiercely against another Middle Eastern war, therefore Obama and Cameron dropped their plans of enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria.

    In the end, France was left alone as the only Western power still in favor of intervention; at that point, however, the seasoned Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov staged a diplomatic coup by announcing that the Syrian government was willing to ship its chemical weapons stockpiles out of Syria and subsequently the issue was amicably resolved.

    Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf Arab states, the main beneficiaries of the proxy war against the Baathist government in Syria, however, had lost a golden opportunity to deal a fatal blow to their regional rivals.

    To add insult to the injury, the Islamic State, one of the numerous militant outfits fighting in Syria, overstepped its mandate in Syria and overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq in 2014, from where the US troops had withdrawn only a couple of years ago in December 2011.

    Additionally, when the graphic images and videos of Islamic State’s executions surfaced on the internet, the Obama administration was left with no other choice but to adopt some countermeasures to show that it was still sincere in pursuing Washington’s dubious “war on terror” policy; at the same time, however, it assured its Turkish, Jordanian and Gulf Arab allies that despite fighting a war against the maverick jihadist outfit, the Islamic State, the Western policy of training and arming the so-called “moderate” Syrian militants will continue apace and that Bashar al-Assad’s days were numbered, one way or the other.

    Moreover, declaring the war against the Islamic State in August 2014 served another purpose too: in order to commit the US Air Force to Syria and Iraq, the Obama administration needed the approval of the US Congress which was not available, but by declaring a war against the Islamic State, which was a designated terrorist organization, the Obama administration availed itself of the war on terror provisions in the US laws and thus circumvented the US Congress.

    But then Russia threw a spanner in the works of NATO and its regional Middle Eastern allies in September 2015 by its surreptitious military buildup in Latakia that was executed with an element of surprise unheard of since General Rommel, the Desert Fox.

    When Russia deployed its forces and military hardware to Syria in September 2015, the militant proxies of Washington and its regional clients were on the verge of drawing a wedge between Damascus and the Alawite heartland of coastal Latakia, which could have led to the imminent downfall of the Bashar al-Assad government.

    With the help of the Russian air power, the Syrian government has since reclaimed most of Syria’s territory from the insurgents, excluding Idlib in the northwest occupied by the Turkish-backed militants and Deir al-Zor and the Kurdish-held areas in the east, thus inflicting a humiliating defeat on Washington and its regional clients.

    Therefore, although Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf States still toe Washington’s line in the region publicly, behind the scenes there is bitter resentment that the US let them down by making an about-face on the previous regime change policy in Syria and the subsequent declaration of war against one group of Sunni militants in Syria, the Islamic State. This change of policy by the US directly benefited the Iranian-led axis in the region.

    Coming back to Yemen, after Ali Abdullah Saleh colluded with the Houthi rebels and incited them to take advantage of political vacuum created after the revolution to come out of their northern Saada stronghold and occupy the capital Sanaa in September 2014, meanwhile a change of guard took place in Riyadh as Saudi Arabia’s longtime ruler King Abdullah died and was replaced by King Salman in January 2015, while de facto control of the kingdom fell into hands of ambitious and belligerent Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

    Already furious at the Obama administration for not enforcing its so-called “red line” by imposing a no-fly zone over Syria after the false-flag Ghouta chemical weapons attacks in Damascus in August 2013 and apprehensive of security threat posed to the kingdom from its southern border along Yemen by Houthi rebels under the influence of Iran, the crown prince immediately began a military and air warfare campaign against regional rivals with military assistance from the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of UAE, Mohammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan, in March 2015.

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    Mindful of the botched policy it had pursued in Libya and Syria and aware of the catastrophe it had wrought in the Middle East region, the Obama administration had to yield to the dictates of Saudi Arabia and UAE by fully coordinating the Gulf-led military campaign in Yemen not only by providing intelligence, planning and logistical support but also by selling billions of dollars’ worth of arms and ammunition to the Gulf States during the conflict.

    After the Democrats lost the presidential election in November 2016, the Yemen conflict has further escalated during four years of Trump presidency, who was on even friendlier terms with the Saudi royal family. In order to appreciate the nature of cordial relationship between the Trump family and the Gulf’s petro-monarchs, here are a few relevant excerpts from Bob Woodward’s book, Rage.

    In an informal conversation with Woodward, Trump boasted that he protected Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from congressional scrutiny after the brutal assassination of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi at Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. “I saved his ass,” Trump said in 2018, according to the book. “I was able to get Congress to leave him alone. I was able to get them to stop.”

    When Woodward pressed Trump if he believed the Saudi crown prince ordered the assassination himself, Trump responded: “He says very strongly that he didn’t do it. Bob, they spent $400 billion over a fairly short period of time,” Trump said.

    “And you know, they’re in the Middle East. You know, they’re big. Because of their religious monuments, you know, they have the real power. They have the oil, but they also have the great monuments for religion. You know that, right? For that religion,” the president noted. “They wouldn’t last a week if we’re not there, and they know it,” he added.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 22:45

  • Ackman Buys 3.1 Million Netflix Shares With $1.25 Billion Profit From Massive Treasury Short
    Ackman Buys 3.1 Million Netflix Shares With $1.25 Billion Profit From Massive Treasury Short

    A few days ago we pointed out that one of the event risks in a sliding market is distressed M&A in which cash-rich buyers scoop up beaten down assets, and of which we have already seen two examples: Microsoft’s acquisition of a deeply discounted Activision and more recently, last week’s acquisition of Kohl’s by a consortium of buyers.

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    But it’s not just strategics that are finding good deals: financial buyers are also jumping in, as a tweet from Bill Ackman late on Wednesday showed.

    The billionaire investor behind Pershing Square announced on twitter that “beginning on Friday and over the last several days, we acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix… which makes us a top-20 holder.” Ackman, who also linked to a letter to investors laying out his thinking and math behind the purchase, said that “I have long admired Reed Hastings and the remarkable company he and his team have built. We are delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity.”

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    Pershing Square’s stake equals about 0.68% of the streaming giant, based on 455.8 million diluted shares outstanding at Dec. 31.

    News of the purchase sent shares of Netflix 4% higher in after-hours trading following news of Pershing’s investment. But it has a long way to go to catch up to where it was just 4 weeks ago: the stock has plunged more than 40% in 2022 alone, and closed Wednesday at $359.70, compared with a high of $691.69 on Nov. 17.

    The recent plunge in Netflix stock came after the company said last week that it expects to add a much smaller number of subscribers this quarter than it did a year ago as it contends with a crowded streaming marketplace and ongoing disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic.

    However, one man’s collapsing growth story is another man’s deep-value investment, and that’s precisely what prompted Ackman to swoop in: “The opportunity to acquire Netflix at an attractive valuation emerged when investors reacted negatively to the recent quarter’s subscriber growth and management’s short-term guidance. Netflix’s substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility” Ackman wrote in his letter to investors.

    It is somewhat ironic that Ackman is now entering Netflix, as by doing so he once again crosses paths with his old Herbalife nemesis, Carl Icahn, whom he fought – and lost – last decade in an attempt to prove that Herbalife is a giant ponzi scheme, and where Icahn made billions. Well, it is the same Icahn who bought into Netflix almost exactly a decade ago at the urging of his son and planned to call for the company to explore a sale. But then Icahn met with CEO Reed Hastings, who arranged for a private showing of the soon-to-debut “House of Cards” drama starring Kevin Spacey, the streamer’s first original series. After seeing it and understanding Hastings’ vision, Icahn decided against the sale idea and abandoned his plans for activism. He cashed out in 2015 with a profit of about $2 billion, making it one of his best ever investments.

    And now it’s Ackman’s turn to try to replicate Ichan’s success. Of course, for that to happen, NFLX stock would need to hit four digits.

    But perhaps more remarkable is how Ackman funded his new position in NFLX.

    Recall that for much of 2021 Wall Street was abuzz with reports that Ackman was building a major rates short (betting on higher yields). These reports culminated with Ackman’s presentation to the NY Fed, in which it urged the central bank to “begin hiking rates asap.” As we wrote at the time, “Bill Ackman, revealed on twitter that he “gave a presentation to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week to share our views on inflation and Fed policy. The bottom line: we think the Fed should taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible.“

    Ackman was not shy in revealing that he was obviously talking his book, stating that “we have put our money where our mouth is in hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates, as we believe that a rise in rates could negatively impact our long-only equity portfolio.”

    In other words, Ackman is short rates, although it is unclear for now how large his exposure is.

    We now have a pretty good idea of how large his exposure was: enough to make $1.25 billion in profit. 

    As Ackman writes in his Netflix letter, “in order to fund our purchase of Netflix, beginning on Friday and over the last few days, we unwound the substantial majority of our interest rate hedge generating proceeds of $1.25 billion. We retained interest rate swaptions that are currently out-of-the-money, and also purchased some additional longer-dated, out-of-the-money swaptions. The result of all of the above is that the notional size of our interest rate hedge has been reduced by 80%, the term of a substantial portion of the hedge we retain has been extended, and our dollar investment in hedges has been reduced by more than 90%.”

    Amusingly, after making billions from bond CDS that blew up during the covid crash, Ackman has become rather sensitive to being accused of profiting from others’ pain (in this case the crash in stocks that will accompany a spike in the Fed Funds rate), Ackman added the following disclaimer:

    Had we not sold the hedge, we could have likely realized more gains based on the increase in rates, largely today, since our sale.

    But why did Ackman not hold on to his rate short – especially since his DV01 appears to be off the charts – if he has such a high conviction that rates are going even higher? Well, as he explains, “we believed the opportunity to invest in Netflix at current prices offered a more compelling risk/reward and likely greater, long-term profits for the funds.“

    He then also gave the following explanation for why Pershing Square invests in such rate/swaption hedges:

    We invest in hedges not to protect the funds from a short-term mark-to-market loss, but rather because they can become a large source of potential liquidity at precisely the time stocks become cheap. We invest in asymmetric hedges as they offer the opportunity for large gains without exposing the portfolio to meaningful losses in the event the potential risk does not transpire.

    We invested in out-of-the-money interest rate swaptions in December 2020 and early 2021 because we believed that it was likely that the combination of aggressive fiscal policy, monetary policy, and the reopening of the economy due to vaccines would cause non-transitory inflation, which would require the Federal Reserve to raise rates. We believed that an unexpected rise in rates could cause a market correction. We viewed this outcome to be a likely one, yet the options we purchased implied that this scenario was very unlikely. Highly differentiated perspectives on future outcomes can yield attractive payoffs for investors, particularly when structured in an asymmetric format.

    Said otherwise, Ackman is confident he will make more money going long Netflix today than keeping his rates short, or as he concludes his letter: “We are pleased to add Netflix to our portfolio. Many of our best investments have emerged when other investors whose time horizons are short term, discard great companies at prices that look extraordinarily attractive when one has a long-term horizon.”

    The bigger question is now that Ackman has cashed the substantial majority of his big rate short, will the key thesis during the next marquee hedge fund idea dinner be to go long rates, especially as the US now appears to have a date with a recession, perhaps even before the midterms? Or view, is that going long rates here will end up bring much more profitable than continuing to press shorts, especially once it becomes abundantly clear to the market that the US is hiking rates right into a recession, if not an outright depression now that fiscal stimmies are history once the Democrats lose in November by an avalanche and now new fiscal stimulus will be conceivable until at least November 2024.

    That said, the biggest question we have is when will that consummate financial value investor, Warren Buffett, who has long lamented the lack of bargains become the most prominent financial buyer of distressed growth (or value) opportunities. In a time when the Fed put has become the Fed call, that may be the catalyst to finally start buying.

    Ackman’s letter to investors explaining the Netflix purchase can be found here.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 22:33

  • Doctor's Organization Has Treated Over 150,000 COVID-19 Patients With 99.99% Survival
    Doctor’s Organization Has Treated Over 150,000 COVID-19 Patients With 99.99% Survival

    Authored by Meiling Lee via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A doctor who has been offering free telehealth services to COVID-19 patients during the pandemic says that early treatment for COVID-19 works, claiming that he has a 99.99 percent survival rate.

    “We have a team of volunteer free doctors that donate their time to help treat these patients that come to us,” Dr. Ben Marble, the founder of myfreedoctor.com, an online medical consultation service, said at a roundtable discussion hosted by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) on Jan. 24.

    He added, “We deliver the early treatment protocols to them as early as we can, and we have a 99.99 percent survival rate. So, I believe myfreedoctor.com, the free volunteered doctors have settled the science on this—early treatment works, period!”

    A paramedic prepares an ambulance at Hudson Regional Hospital in Secaucus, N.J., on Dec. 11, 2020. (Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images)

    Marble was answering Johnson’s question about what people can do if they or their loved ones have COVID-19.

    People can visit the website myfreedoctor.com, create an account, and fill out a patient intake form if the doctors are accepting new patients for that day. One of the doctors will then reach out in less than 24 hours. With a huge demand for their services, the physicians say they can only “accept a certain number of patients each day.”

    Marble says that he and his small team of volunteer doctors prescribe [Dr. Peter] McCullough’s treatment protocol, which consists of hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, monoclonal antibodies, prednisone, and other low-cost generic drugs. They also prescribe vitamins D and C, and zinc.

    Vitamin C bottles were on display in Miami, Florida on June 15, 2001. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    McCullough, a cardiologist, and epidemiologist, along with several physicians put together an early treatment protocol to provide outpatient care for COVID-19 patients. Their paper was published in The American Journal of Medicine in August 2020.

    Dr. Pierre Kory, a pulmonologist and the President at the Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care (FLCCC) Alliance, says that the public is not aware that there are doctors across the country who will provide telehealth and early treatment for COVID-19.

    “On our website, we have a button, which says find a provider. We’ve tried to collect as many telehealth providers that treat all states in the country,” Kory said.

    “We are trying to let that message be known because that message is being suppressed that this disease is treatable,” he added.

    Kory also claims that there is corruption at the federal level in suppressing early treatment with repurposed cheap drugs and their availability and that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been “captured by the pharmaceutical industry.”

    “The corruption is because they don’t want you to use off-label, repurposed generic medicines. It does not provide profit to the system,” Kory said, adding that, “you know what’s going on in this country right now, is that the CDC has been captured by the pharmaceutical industry.”

    “They sent out a memo in August of 2021, they sent out a similar memo back in the spring 2020, telling the nation’s physicians and pharmacists not to use generic medicines.”

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the CDC for comment.

    Early treatments were and continue to be discouraged by the CDC, whose guidance since the beginning of the pandemic up until January 2022, only focused on people self-quarantining for 14 days, keeping hydrated, taking analgesics, and only seeking hospital care when they can’t breathe or turn blue. They also warned people to not take any medications not approved for COVID-19.

    “People have been seriously harmed and even died after taking products not approved for use to treat or prevent COVID-19, even products approved or prescribed for other uses,” the CDC wrote on its potential treatments webpage.

    The weblink provided for the alleged harmful product was related to a March 2020 health alert warning of a serious health effect from ingesting non-pharmaceutical chloroquine phosphate used to clean fish tanks. This alert came after an Arizona man and his wife took the non-pharmaceutical drug in an attempt to self-medicate for COVID-19.

    For the past two years, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has only authorized limited early outpatient treatments for COVID-19 that include monoclonal antibodies for high-risk patients and antiviral pills from Merck and Pfizer. However, the FDA on Jan. 24 announced it was limiting the use of Eli Lilly and Regeneron monoclonal antibodies only to patients “likely to have been infected with or exposed to a variant that is susceptible to these treatments.”

    Johnson held the roundtable discussion to offer a different perspective on the response to the pandemic, including on “the current state of knowledge of early and hospital treatment, vaccine efficacy and safety, what went right, what went wrong, what should be done now, and what needs to be addressed long term.”

    The discussion panel consisted of renowned health experts and scientists that included McCullough, Dr. Robert Malone, and Dr. Paul Marik.

    According to a press release, Johnson also invited over a dozen prominent figures involved in developing, promoting, and leading the pandemic response, including the CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky and White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeffrey Zients. All of the individuals declined to attend the forum.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 22:05

  • RV Shipments Set New Record As December Stalled
    RV Shipments Set New Record As December Stalled

    The recent moves in the RV business suggest the industry may have reached a plateau following robust demand for more than 1.5 years. COVID has undoubtedly changed how Americans travel and vacation to desire national parks rather than crowded resorts and large metropolises. 

    According to the RV Industry Association’s (RVIA) survey of North American manufacturers of all-towable vehicles and motorhomes finished 2021 at a record 600,240 wholesale shipments, exceeding 504,599 shipments in 2017. Total RV shipments for 2021 jumped 39.5% over the 430,412 units shipped in 2020. Towable RVs, led by conventional travel trailers, ended 2021 up 39.6% compared with 544,028 wholesale shipments. Motorhomes were up 37.8% compared to 2020 with 56,212 units. 

    There was unprecedented demand for RVs last year as we speculated in early December, total sales for the year would surpass 600,000. 

    “While the demand for RVs has been amplified over the past two years, the pandemic also created several obstacles and challenges for our industry,” said RVIA President & CEO Craig Kirby. 

    However, if we dive more into the report and break down the numbers for December, there’s evidence the RV boom is perhaps stalling. 

    RVIA’s December 2021 total RV shipments data for the month was 40,347 units, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the 40,382 units shipped during December 2020. Towable RVs ended up 1.1% for the month with 36,908 wholesale shipments. Motorhomes were down 11.3%. 

    We question if December’s slump was seasonal or if demand for RVs is coming off a massive peak pulled forward by the pandemic. We won’t know this until the spring season comes around. If this is the peak, there’s a gigantic hangover ahead for the industry. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 21:45

  • Flying Car Certified To Fly, Paving Way For Mass Production Of "Very Efficient Flying Cars"
    Flying Car Certified To Fly, Paving Way For Mass Production Of “Very Efficient Flying Cars”

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A hybrid car-airplane known as “AirCar” has been issued a certificate of airworthiness by the Slovakian civil aviation authority, potentially paving the way for the future of flying vehicles.

    Klein Vision’s AirCar completes world’s first inter-city flight. Pictured here in an undated file photo. (Courtesy of Klein Vision)

    The dual-mode car-aircraft vehicle, which looks like a sports car, was created by a team of eight highly-skilled specialists at the Slovakian company Klein Vision, which was founded by Professor Stefan Klein.

    Klein has devoted the last 20 years to making the flying car a reality.

    It was awarded the certificate by the Slovak Transport Authority after successfully completing 70 hours of “rigorous flight testing compatible with European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) standards,” Klein Vision said in a statement (pdf).

    Flight tests included over 200 takeoffs and landings and a full range of various flight and performance maneuvers that Klein Vision says demonstrated “astonishing static and dynamic stability in the aircraft mode.”

    The takeoff and landing procedures were achieved even without the pilot having to touch the flight controls, the company said.

    It took the team of specialists over 100,000 man hours to convert design drawings of the air vehicle into mathematical models and to then create the final two-seater 1,000-kilogram (2,200-pound) vehicle that is powered by a 1.6-liter BMW engine.

    “AirCar certification opens the door for mass production of very efficient flying cars. It is official and the final confirmation of our ability to change mid-distance travel forever,” said Klein, who is also responsible for research projects in cooperation with brands such as Audi, Volkswagen, and BMW.

    “Transportation Authority carefully monitored all stages of unique AirCar development from its start in 2017. The transportation safety is our highest priority. AirCar combines top innovations with safety measures in line with EASA standards. It defines a new category of a sports car and a reliable aircraft. Its certification was both a challenging and fascinating task,” said René Molnár, the director of the Civil Aviation Division (Transport Authority of Slovakia).

    The company told CNN that it hopes to have the AirCar commercially available within 12 months, but a pilot’s license is required to drive the hybrid vehicle, meaning we won’t be seeing many of the flying cars anytime soon.

    Anton Zajac, co-founder of Klein Vision, said that the vehicle can fly at a maximum operating altitude of 18,000 feet, and runs on “fuel that is sold at any gas station.”

    AirCar successfully completed its first 35-minute inter-city flight last June between airports in Nitra and the capital Bratislava in Slovakia.

    After landing, it took the car less than three minutes to transform back into a sports car, which can reduce travel time by a factor of two.

    Klein Vision has also completed tests of a powerful and lightweight “ADEPT” Airmotive aviation engine and finalized drawings and technical calculations for the upcoming monocoque model, which will have a variable pitch propeller that could reach speeds over 300 kph (186 mph) and a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 21:25

  • CCP Expels 1st Official For Being Too Rich & Corrupt As Xi Pushes "Common Prosperity" Crackdown
    CCP Expels 1st Official For Being Too Rich & Corrupt As Xi Pushes “Common Prosperity” Crackdown

    President Xi’s “Common Prosperity” crackdown has finally ensnared a CCP official who allegedly participated in the “disorderly expansion of capital” by taking bribes, abusing his official power, and other violations of his “official duties” – violations that happen to be not just common, but absolutely essential to the Chinese economy, where connections to the government often leads to economic power.

    After cracking down on the country’s biggest tech firms, abolishing the private tutoring industry, limiting minors to just a few hours of video games a week and launching an incipient corruption campaign, many Chinese are still wondering how President Xi’s “Common Prosperity” drive will affect them. The President has taken pains to reassure them that money seized from “monopolists” and other economic abusers will be repurposed for the public good, particularly in China’s underdeveloped rural areas.

    And like any of China’s previous “anti-corruption campaigns” (including the anti-corruption drive President Xi used to sideline his enemies early during his first term as China’s paramount leader), it’s inevitable that some heads belonging to senior Communists will roll.

    Unfortunately (for the targets), it looks like the latest purge has already started.

    Zhou Jiangyong

    Bloomberg on Wednesday reported that the first CCP apparatchik to be officially expelled from the Party during the current anti-corruption crackdown is none other than Zhou Jiangyong, the former party secretary of Hangzhou, the hometown of Alibaba. Zhou was implicated in a major corruption scandal besides Alibaba and Ant Group, which we reported on late last week.

    Reports on the corrupt relationship claimed that bribes were paid by Alibaba to Zhou’s brother, who also appeared to benefit in other ways thanks to his connection to his brother.

    China’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection released a statement about the official’s ouster on Wednesday:

    “Zhou Jiangyong has lost his ideals and beliefs,” the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said. “He covertly opposed central government plans, colluded with capital, supported the disorderly expansion of capital, engaged in superstitious activities and deliberately resisted probes.”

    BBG claimed that Zhou’s ouster from the party marked the first citation of “disorderly capital” in a CCDI corruption case, according to a BBG document review. Zhou, who has reportedly been under investigation since August, was also accused of colluding with family members to receive huge bribes, according to the statement.

    His case has been referred to prosecutors. Corruption cases are known to occasionally carry the death penalty in China.

    Zhou wasn’t the only official expelled from the Party Wednesday over corruption allegations Wednesday: The CCDI also declared that He Xingxiang, a former vice president of China Development Bank, had been expelled from the Party for “serious” violations of the law, including the misuse of financial approval rights, which had created “major risks” and “huge losses” for the country.

    The anti-graft authority had reportedly announced last week that it would crack down on “disorderly expansion of capital” when investigating corruption and “monopolistic” enterprises in the country. Efforts will be made to sever “the link between power and capital,” the CCDI said. “Show no mercy to those who engage in political gangs, small circles, and interest groups within the party, and strictly educate, manage and supervise young cadres.”

    Hopefully, family members of China’s paramount leaders, many of whom have enjoyed an explosion of wealth thanks to their familial ties, aren’t too worried. After all, the CCP has expelled foreign reporters who have dared to report on the wealth held by members of President Xi’s family.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 21:05

  • Florida Doctor: Families Sneak Ivermectin To Loved Ones In Hospitals With COVID-19, See Improvement
    Florida Doctor: Families Sneak Ivermectin To Loved Ones In Hospitals With COVID-19, See Improvement

    Authored by Nanette Holt via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A Florida doctor says families of loved ones hospitalized with COVID-19 are resorting to desperate measures when approved treatments have failed.

    File photo: A package of ivermectin tablets. (Natasha Holt/The Epoch Times)

    And when it’s not too late, some have seen tremendous success by sneaking medications prohibited by hospitals to patients, says Eduardo Balbona, an independent internist in Jacksonville.

    He’s helped dozens of seriously ill patients recover using ivermectin and other drugs and supplements not officially approved in the treatment of COVID-19, he says.

    Hospitals receive payments from the federal government for treating patients with COVID-19. But those payments are tied to their use of approved treatments only, as outlined in the CARES Act. When there’s nothing left to try under those protocols, families naturally research alternatives,  Balbona says, often learning about treatments touted by independent physicians around the country.

    Hoping to try anything that might work, families around the country have filed lawsuits asking judges to intervene.

    In some cases, judges have ordered hospitals to allow the use of other treatments, such as ivermectin. Some of those seriously ill patients have recovered. In other cases, judges have sided with hospitals and declined the families’ requests to try. 

    Meanwhile, independent physicians like Balbona watch helplessly, feeling that when families ask, they should be allowed to try medications they believe can turn critically ill patients around. But independent doctors often have limited hospital privileges and may be banned from seeing their own patients in some hospitals. 

    That was the case recently for Balbona, who was contacted by a worried wife after she read in The Epoch Times about his involvement in another family’s lawsuit seeking to try his recommendations.

    Based on what the woman told him, Balbona said he felt strongly her husband could recover if treated with the regimen he prescribes for seriously ill COVID-19 patients. The treatment protocol he follows, with slight modifications based on each patient’s needs, was developed by the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance. 

    “The husband was very ill,” Balbona said. “He’s in his 50s, a big strong guy. She called me desperate because they gave him remdesivir [in the hospital] and she made them stop it, and he started getting worse and worse. And his oxygen demand went up.”

    By the time she called Balbona for help, her husband needed 60 liters of oxygen per minute. That’s too high to manage at home, even with rented medical equipment, Balbona said.

    “If you can get them down to 40 or 50 [liters per minute] you can do high-flow oxygen at that level,” Balbona told The Epoch Times. “That’s a lot of oxygen.”

    He said he promised he’d try if her husband improved enough to go home. And then he’d take over managing his care. Meanwhile, he said, he gave her prescriptions, so she could collect the medications she’d need at home. That was on a Friday.

    He learned later that she’d filled the prescriptions, took the medications to the hospital, and gave them to her husband. By Tuesday, the man was discharged and fully following the protocol Balbona prescribed. A few days later, he was off the oxygen. Now, he’s recovering, Balbona said. But they’re afraid to share their good news publicly.

    A medical worker treats a non Covid-19 patient in the ICU ward at UMass Memorial Medical Center in Worcester, Massachusetts on Jan. 4, 2022. (JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images)

    “The people who snuck in the ivermectin… they are scared to death,” Balbona said. “She is sure that the government is going to find out who she is” and possibly arrest her for giving medications not approved by the hospital.

    He said she told him, “I did it. I knew it was wrong. I don’t know what the penalties are. What could they do to me?”

    And that’s the real crime, Balbona believes.

    In New Hampshire, lawmakers now are considering legislation that would make the state the first in the country to make Ivermectin available as an over-the-counter medicine, and sanction it as a protected treatment for COVID-19. Similar bills in three other states have failed.

    The bill’s sponsor,  Rep. Leah Cushman (R) is a registered nurse, who told The Epoch Times, “I have absolutely no doubt lives will be saved if human grade ivermectin was available to COVID patients.”

    Two doctors testified about her proposed bill, warning the legislation could lead to dangerous side effects for people who use the drug. But Cushman believes she’ll have the votes to keep the bill moving toward becoming law.

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not approved the use of ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19, though the drug is used in humans to treat a variety of conditions. 

    An FDA web page warning against using ivermectin for COVID-19 also mentions that clinical trials investigating it as a treatment are ongoing.

    The FDA has not responded to a Freedom of Information Act request (FOIA) asking for details about any reports of side effects related to the use of ivermectin — formulations for animals and humans —  to treat COVID-19. The agency also has not responded to a FOIA request for details about clinical trials and when the drug could reach the stage when its use under the Right To Try Act could be allowed.

    Studies about the safety and efficacy of using ivermectin in the treatment for COVID-19 have led to all or part of 22 countries approving its use. But in the United States, doctors who rely on payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services aren’t allowed to use it. 

    When Balbona heard about the proposed legislation, he immediately called two state senators, and two attorneys who are patients, suggesting that they propose similar legislation in Florida. Florida lawmakers currently are in session in Tallahassee through March 11.

    “If we can get legislation to say, ‘Let the doctor do what he thinks is best,’ I think that would be wonderful,” Balbona said. “If New Hampshire can do this, why can’t we?”

    Alice Giordano contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 20:45

  • Apple CEO Tim Cook Wins Restraining Order Against 'Deranged' Stalker
    Apple CEO Tim Cook Wins Restraining Order Against ‘Deranged’ Stalker

    Apparently, the fact that Apple CEO Tim Cook is openly gay hasn’t prevented him from being assiduously stalked by a deranged woman reportedly seeking to become his “roommate”.

    The CEO once referred to by President Trump as “Tim Apple” has now been granted a temporary restraining order against a Virginia woman after his employer interceded on his behalf.

    The woman, named Julia Lee Choi, is from McLean, Va. She reportedly sent messages to Cook saying she was “applying to be his roommate” and would be moving in, asking him to “empty the condo”. Fox News reported that the woman showed up at Cook’s home twice, and even sent him threatening photos of guns and bullets. Cook first became “aware” of her in October and November 2020, when she allegedly tweeted that she was Cook’s “wife” and claimed that the CEO was the father of her two twins.

    Choi then allegedly drove across the US from Virginia to Palo Alto to visit Cook. Local cops towed her Porsche Macan after stopping her and finding out she had an expired license.

    What’s perhaps more impressive is that she also created multiple fake organizations under Cook’s name, according to court documents.

    She even sent Cook emails accusing the CEO of “abusing” her: “I have to take mental medicine because of you,” read an email she sent to Cook on Nov. 2, 2020.

    An Apple security employee even wrote in the petition for the order that he had feared for his safety, along with that of his boss.

    According to Bloomberg, the restraining order was issued Friday by the Santa Clara County Superior Court. It will expire March 29.

    The order bars the woman from interacting with Cook and other Apple employees. She’s also barred from entering any of the company’s properties. The woman is also prohibited from buying guns and ammunition.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 20:25

  • Watch: Rand Paul's Advice On What To Do When Confronted By "Crazy Lunatic" Mask People
    Watch: Rand Paul’s Advice On What To Do When Confronted By “Crazy Lunatic” Mask People

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Appearing on Fox News Tuesday, Senator Rand Paul issued advice on what to do if you find yourself confronted by one of the dwindling numbers of mask wearing “lunatics” who continue to appeal for mass “collectivism”.

    Host Jesse Watters asked Paul about a recent indecent in which two mask Karens attacked a man for not wearing one, and as he was black, kept yelling ‘Black lives Matter’ at him.

    “These people clearly aren’t well,” Watters noted, adding “Large swaths of America are in a Covid cult.”

    The host asked the Senator “As a medical professional, as a genteel Senator and a polite individual, Dr. Rand Paul, what would you recommend Americans do when they are confronted with these mask maniacs, when they are yelled at and screamed at and being recorded on their phone? How should they handle that in a respectful but normal way?”

    “See, I would say bear spray but I’m afraid that will get me in trouble so I won’t say that,” Paul jokingly responded.

    He followed up “I think you should back away and say, ‘Lady, you are crazy, leave me the hell alone,’ but you should not confront her.”

    Paul continued, “You should not use violence. Back away and just say look, can you not find some other lunatic friends to hang around with?”

    Watch:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Paul also noted that “Really this is a difference between individualism and collectivism.”

    “I have an opinion, but I’m not wanting to enforce it on anybody. I’m not telling you that you can’t wear a mask. I’m just saying don’t make me wear a mask when it doesn’t work,” the Senator urged.

    “They don’t understand that, that we have a perspective, they have a perspective. But they want to force and ram their perspective down our throat through force. I mean, what kind of people are they? This has brought out the worst in people,” he further explained.

    Paul also cited evidence from Florida, Sweden, and beyond that mask mandates “have had no influence on the pandemic” further noting that even CNN medical analyst Leana Wen recently labelled cloth masks “little more than facial decorations.”

    *  *  *

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    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 20:05

  • Florida Braces For 'Freeze-Mageddon' As Citrus Growers In Cross-Fire
    Florida Braces For ‘Freeze-Mageddon’ As Citrus Growers In Cross-Fire

    What we’re about to share is absolutely stunning and could put South Florida in the path of an Arctic airmass this weekend. 

    The National Weather Service (NWS) in Miami warns of an “Arctic air mass heading into South Florida this upcoming weekend.” 

    NWS Miami provided an infographic explaining the potential setup that could leave area-wide frost and freezing conditions in South Florida. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to not get out of the 50s over most of the area, and even southern areas around Miami may struggle to reach 60 degrees under clearing skies and gusty northwest winds,” NWS Miami said. “This will set the stage for the coldest night and morning which will likely be Saturday night and Sunday morning.”

    “Current indications are that the probabilities for freezing temperatures early Sunday morning are increasing over inland Southwest Florida, primarily Glades, Hendry, inland Collier, and inland Palm Beach County well away from Lake Okeechobee. In these areas, duration of temperatures of 32 degrees or below could be as much as 4 hours. 

    Over the rest of the area, low temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to range from the mid-30s over the outlying suburbs of the east and west coasts, upper 30s Gulf coast, and upper 30s to lower 40s over most of metro Southeast Florida,” NWS Miami said. 

    Weather conditions Saturday evening and Sunday morning could be cold enough for freeze warnings. Here’s the freeze outlook for the weekend. 

    The potential freeze-mageddon comes as “The Sunshine State” produces one of the smallest crops since the 1940s. 

    In what appears to be a citrus shortage developing, frozen orange juice futures have risen nearly 40% since the beginning of November. Currently, they trade around $1.59 per pound as speculators could push contracts as high as $2. 

    At this time, the state’s citrus growers are praying freeze-mageddon is not unleashed across the state; otherwise, it would mean more crop loss and higher prices, something consumers would not be too fond of. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 19:45

  • Pat Buchanan Asks: Is Biden Right? Does The Left Own The Future?
    Pat Buchanan Asks: Is Biden Right? Does The Left Own The Future?

    Authored by Pat Buchanan,

    Before he appeared at his first solo news conference of 2022, President Joe Biden knew he had a communications problem he had to deal with.

    Namely, how to get off the defensive.

    How to avoid spending his time with the White House press corps defending his decisions and explaining his actions as allegations of failure, one after another, were tossed up at him?

    Biden entered knowing what issues would be paramount and what questions would be raised:

    Why had he been unable to control a coronavirus pandemic now killing 2,000 Americans a day?

    Why was he unable to contain an inflation eating up the wages, salaries and savings of American families at a yearly rate of 7%?

    Why was he unable to secure a southern border that 150,000 illegal immigrants were crossing every month?

    To get off the defensive and onto offense, Biden brought his own questions for his GOP inquisitors and conservative critics:

    “What are Republicans for? What are they for? Name me one thing they’re for,” Biden demanded to know.

    Turning the tables, Biden charged his Republican critics with having no policy goals, other than the willful obstruction of his goals.

    “The fundamental question is: What’s Mitch (McConnell) for? … What’s he for on immigration? What’s he for? What’s he proposing to make anything better? … What’s he for on these things? What are they for?”

    Biden was making the case that while the Democratic Party has an agenda of declared goals, providing benefits to millions, the GOP is the party of “No.”

    Why not fight our battles on this terrain for a change? Biden was demanding. And, behind his exasperation, he has a point.

    Democrats do have an agenda. They do have things they want to accomplish. And the party of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is basically an opposition party whose goal is to prevent them from succeeding.

    There is another reason Biden would like to force Republicans to identify their goals. Naming them would reveal the divisions inside the GOP on priorities and open Republicans up to the kind of attacks the GOP is mounting against Biden’s agenda.

    In short, behind Biden’s demand that the GOP identify its goals was an attempt to shift the debate onto terrain more familiar and favorable for the Democratic Party.

    For the truth is that Democrats are the party of government, and Republicans are the party of the private sector. These are their historic roles. Biden is seeking to re-elevate that critical difference.

    Democrats, for example, are almost unanimous in their support of federally funded universal pre-K, child care, the child tax credit, student loan forgiveness and federal standards for voting in federal elections.

    Historically, Democrats led the fight for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, civil rights, voting rights, welfare and most of the rest of a federal monolith that now consumes perhaps a fourth of our GDP.

    Republicans have been the party that resisted the expansion of government over our lifetimes, and its role has often been to conduct an orderly retreat to a new defense perimeter after the most recent defeat.

    The most celebrated Republican of the last century was Ronald Reagan, who famously declared that the nine most terrifying words in the English language were, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

    Republicans have emphasized, as a major role of government, providing the security that citizens cannot provide for themselves.

    Security against crime and violence, security against an invasion of the country, security against hostile foreign powers.

    Biden’s problem is that while millions might agree on aspects of his Build Back Better plan, the present primary concerns of the electorate are those government duties that his party is visibly failing to perform: controlling the pandemic, stopping the shootings and killings of cops, halting the invasion across our southern border, preventing the loss of incomes and savings to inflation.

    Yet, despite the imperiled position of Biden’s party today, it has relative strengths and long-term trends in its favor.

    First, America’s white majority, home to the base of the GOP, is a diminishing majority, on average older than the core constituencies of the Democratic Party — the young, the migrants and people of color.

    Second, the Democratic mega-states in presidential elections — California, New York, Illinois — seem solidly blue, while Republican mega-states like Texas and Florida seem less solidly red.

    Third, America’s major media centered in New York and Washington, D.C., is liberal and Democratic, as are our cultural institutions — museums, Hollywood, higher education, the entertainment industry.

    Fourth, the trend for democracies is toward transferring more and more power to central governments, not less. Under President Calvin Coolidge, the U.S. government share of GDP was 3%.

    As for the culture wars, traditionalism has been in retreat since the 1950s.

    Biden appears to be a failing president who believes in the inevitable victory of the ideology toward which he himself has been moving over his half-century career since arriving in Washington as a 30-year-old centrist Democrat.

    Unfortunately, he may not be wrong.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 19:25

  • Unvaxxed Canadians Denied Access To Walmart
    Unvaxxed Canadians Denied Access To Walmart

    On Monday, Quebec’s draconian new vaccine passport law for unvaccinated people went into effect. Unvaxxed people will be denied entry to big-box retailers unless they shop for food or visit the pharmacy. Even then, they will be under the supervision of an employee (to make sure they don’t buy anything else). 

    Quebec expanded the vaccination passport to enter all businesses with surface areas larger than 16,000 sqft or more — except for groceries and pharmacies. The new measure was announced on Sunday night. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    For pharmacies located in Walmart and other big-box retailers, an unvaxxed must be “accompanied at all times during his or her travels by an employee of the business, the pharmacy or any other person mandated by them for this purpose” the measure reads. 

    “This person may not purchase products other than those related to the pharmaceutical service they are receiving,” it also said. 

    What’s transpiring in Quebec is another example of how vaccine passports create two-tier societies, punishing unvaxxed for disobeying the government. We first described this as a possible scenario in the early days of the pandemic — now it has become fact. 

    There’s no more debating if society is headed for a two-tier society because it’s already happening in Canada. 

    Have the unvaxxed tried shopping online? Or did Quebec ban them from that? 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 19:05

  • Gallup: Biden Seen As Likable, Smart; Not Strong Leader, Manager
    Gallup: Biden Seen As Likable, Smart; Not Strong Leader, Manager

    By Megan Brenan of Gallup

    President Joe Biden is viewed as likable and intelligent by three in five Americans.

    However, at the end of a challenging first year in office, with his approval rating at a personal low of 40%, less than half of U.S. adults think he possesses five other positive character qualities, least of all being a strong and decisive leader (37%) and able to manage the government effectively (38%). Slightly more think he displays good judgment in a crisis (43%), is honest and trustworthy (45%), and cares about the needs of people like themselves (48%).

    These readings, from a Jan. 3-16 poll, are significantly lower than Gallup’s previous readings for Biden from a poll taken during the 2020 general election campaign; the poll included six of these seven character dimensions. The biggest change between September 2020 and now is a 14-percentage-point decrease in Americans’ belief that Biden can effectively manage the government. Excluding that shift from one of his stronger attributes to one of his weakest, the rank-order of items asked both times has stayed the same.

    In the first year of his presidency, Biden has dealt with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the economy, immigration problems at the border, criticism over the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and opposition to his legislative agenda from Republicans and some in his own party.

    Independents, Democrats Drive Drop in Biden’s Positive Character Ratings

    The declines in positive ratings of Biden’s personal characteristics are driven primarily by independents and, to a lesser degree, Democrats, while Republicans’ views have typically remained low.

    • Independents’ assessments of Biden’s positive qualities ranged from 45% to 66% in 2020, and majorities thought Biden embodied four of the six characteristics measured. These ratings are now significantly lower — between 30% and 59% — with just likability and intelligence at the majority level.
    • Between 74% and 91% of Democrats currently say Biden embodies each of the seven traits. From 2020 to 2022, Democrats’ perceptions of three of Biden’s traits fell significantly — effective government management (-19 points), strong leadership (-12 points) and caring (-8 points). Views of the other three qualities from 2020 remain roughly the same, and 91% now say Biden is intelligent.
    • In 2020, 40% of Republicans thought Biden was likable, but no more than 17% said he possessed any of the other five qualities. Now, 28% of Republicans say he is likable, 26% think he is intelligent, and there has essentially been no change in views of whether the other five characteristics apply to him.

    Gallup has periodically measured Americans’ views of a number of qualities for recent U.S. presidents, which allows for comparisons to Biden.

    Strong and decisive leader — Biden’s 37% rating as a strong leader, a perceived weakness, is in sharp contrast to the three men who sat in the Oval Office before him. Donald Trump (54%), Barack Obama (56%) and George W. Bush (63%) averaged much higher readings over their presidencies. Leadership was consistently rated as Trump’s strongest quality throughout his term.

    Can manage the government effectively — Views of Biden’s ability to manage the government effectively (38%) are somewhat weaker than the term averages for Trump (42%) and Obama (49%). George W. Bush’s 60% average on the measure reflects higher readings in his first term.

    Likability — Biden’s relatively high score for likability (60%) falls short of Obama’s average (79%) but is much higher than Trump’s 37% term average.

    Intelligence — The only other recent president for whom Gallup measured perceptions of intelligence in this format is Trump, who, in June 2018 registered 58%, roughly the same reading as Biden’s now.

    Cares about the needs of people like you — Biden’s current 48% rating on empathy exceeds Trump’s average 41% for the measure throughout his presidency, but George W. Bush (54%) and Bill Clinton (62%) averaged higher readings.

    Honest and trustworthy — Biden’s current 45% reading for honesty is higher than the presidential averages for Trump (36%) and Clinton (40%) but lower than Obama’s 56% and George W. Bush’s 59%.

    Displays good judgment in a crisis — Biden (49%) was better reviewed than Trump (44%) during the 2020 campaign for displaying good judgment in a crisis — Gallup’s only measure of Trump on this dimension. Biden’s 43% current rating is on par with Trump’s and similar to George W. Bush’s 47% in 2005, but lower than Obama’s 57% average.

    Bottom Line

    Gallup has historically found a reciprocal relationship between presidential job approval ratings and personal qualities. That is, elevated approval ratings have typically been accompanied by positive opinions of a president’s personal characteristics. As Biden enters his second year in office with a relatively low approval rating, views of his personality traits are also mostly middling.

    Effective management of government, in particular, is linked to job approval. This is a clear weakness for Biden right now, having fallen the most since 2020. Leaning into his perceived strengths of likability and intelligence could help him navigate the challenges he is facing.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 18:45

  • US Reports Most COVID Deaths In A Year As Danish & Dutch Ditch Restrictions Despite Rising Cases
    US Reports Most COVID Deaths In A Year As Danish & Dutch Ditch Restrictions Despite Rising Cases

    As the omicron wave continues to infect thousands of people around the world, the number of daily deaths recorded in the US has just risen to the highest level in a year. According to data from Johns Hopkins, the 7-day average for newly reported COVID deaths reached roughly 2,200 a day, up about 1K from last fall.

    That’s higher than the most recent near-term peak (just above 2,100 in late September), but still well below the record levels from last winter, when deaths reached a daily average of 3,400.

    Meanwhile, the number of cases being reported daily in the US has sunk back to a 7-day average just above 200K, well below the million-plus daily numbers from earlier this year.

    Globally, the number of cases and deaths reported daily continue to rise, even as a handful of countries including the US, UK and South Africa are starting to see a lasting decline in the intensity of the pandemic.

    While the omicron variant is believed to be more mild than its predecessor, delta, the variant spreads among humans much more quickly. Because of this, there’s always the possibility that the number of severe cases might jump as the number of overall infections explodes.

    “You can have a disease that is for any particular person less deadly than another, like Omicron, but if it is more infectious and reaches more people, then you’re more likely to have a lot of deaths,” said Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality-statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Earlier this month, a team of forecasters warned about a pending uptick in deaths that could drive the US to eclipse 1M COVID deaths by the spring (currently, the US has recorded just over 872K deaths of patients infected with COVID).

    Of course, while Americans like to complain about the state of things, blaming Republicans and the minority who refuse to accept COVID shots, the situation south of the border in Mexico, which never resorted to lockdowns, or any federal COVID restrictions, is objectively far more dire. According to the latest FT report on the situation, Mexico suffered 600,000 excess deaths last year. The paper went on to blame the country’s approach, which it said relied almost entirely on vaccines. As a result, 63% of Mexicans are fully vaxxed, slightly higher than the 60% global average.

    In Denmark and the Netherlands, governments are relaxing their COVID measures, even as the number of newly reported cases has remained robust. The Netherlands, the only European country to go into lockdown following the arrival of the omicron variant, will relax many of its COVID measures starting Wednesday.

    “We are dealing with an extraordinary amount of infections … yet still, we decided to take some steps to reopen,” Health Minister Ernst Kuipers said Tuesday, referring to an average of 52,000 daily positive cases over the last seven days in a country of 17.5 million, according to figures from the Dutch agency for infectious diseases (RIVM).

    “Keeping the most restrictive measures in effect for much longer damages our health and our society,” Kuipers said.

    As a result, Dutch restaurants, bars and cultural venues will be allowed to remain open until 2200 local time after having been closed entirely since Dec. 19. However, patrons will still be required to show proof of vaccination, recovery, or a negative test result.

    In Denmark, a commission of health advisors has officially recommended that most COVID restrictions in the country be ended on Jan. 31. Yet, entry test and isolation rules governing travel to Denmark will be extended. Face mask use at hospitals and in elderly care should continue, the advisors said. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is expected to make an announcement on Wednesday.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/26/2022 – 18:25

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