Oct 27

Today’s News 27th October 2022

  • German Court Blocks Intelligence Service From Spying On AfD Party In Bavaria
    German Court Blocks Intelligence Service From Spying On AfD Party In Bavaria

    Authored by John Cody via Remix News,

    This is the second German court ruling in a week backing the conservative AfD party…

    In a number of German states, the country’s main conservative opposition party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), is already listed as a “potential threat” to democracy and is being monitored by security services. However, in Bavaria, the party just won at least a partial victory against similar surveillance efforts.

    The Administrative Court of Munich has blocked the Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s main domestic intelligence service, from monitoring the Bavarian state chapter of the AfD party. In other states like Thuringia, the BfV can read all emails and monitor the telephone calls of all AfD members without a warrant, but the Munich judges blocked these methods in Bavaria. The judges found that such an operation “severely interferes with the party’s activities with the risk of clandestine spying.”

    In addition, the BfV is prohibited from making public statements claiming the AfD was threatening democracy or the German constitution.

    There is “the danger of an impairment of the equal chances of the party in particular regarding the future federal state election campaign,” the court ruled. However, the party must accept “at least to be observed from publicly accessible sources.”

    Currently, there is a push to list the entire AfD as suspects in an anti-democracy case at the federal level, essentially putting the entire party structure under surveillance. In addition, politicians from a wide range of parties, including the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, the Left, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have pushed for an outright ban on their electoral rival during a time when, according to polling, the AfD has exploded in popularity,

    However, the Munich court only issued an interim ruling, and proceedings are still ongoing. The judges indicated that they want to “carry out their own evaluation of the material submitted, which comprises several thousand pages.”

    The Bavarian Interior Ministry can also appeal the decision within the next two weeks.

    The AfD expressed its support for the decision.

    “Neither in the pre-trial proceedings nor in court could the Office for the Protection of the Constitution substantiate its reasons for the surveillance,” the state AfD branch wrote.

    The party’s state organization chairman and Bundestag representative Stephan Protschka also accused the BfV of being “incapable of any orderly record keeping.”

    “In court, they presented 4,000 chaotically pieced together documents, some of them illegible and unsorted, which they dumped as justification,” Protschka said.

    The BfV lost a similar case in Hessen last week, with the court in Wiesbaden ordering the BfV to halt investigations into the AfD.

    Both Bavaria and Hessen will see elections take place next year, raising fears among the left that the AfD could make major gains. In Bavaria, the AfD has improved from 10 to 12 percent, according to the latest polling.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/27/2022 – 02:00

  • Dictatorship In Disguise: Authoritarian Monsters Wreak Havoc On Our Freedoms
    Dictatorship In Disguise: Authoritarian Monsters Wreak Havoc On Our Freedoms

    Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “You see them on the street. You watch them on TV. You might even vote for one this fall. You think they’re people just like you. You’re wrong. Dead wrong.”

    –  They Live 

    We’re living in two worlds.

    There’s the world we see (or are made to see) and then there’s the one we sense (and occasionally catch a glimpse of), the latter of which is a far cry from the propaganda-driven reality manufactured by the government and its corporate sponsors, including the media.

    Indeed, what most Americans perceive as life in America—privileged, progressive and free—is a far cry from reality, where economic inequality is growing, real agendas and real power are buried beneath layers of Orwellian doublespeak and corporate obfuscation, and “freedom,” such that it is, is meted out in small, legalistic doses by militarized police and federal agents armed to the teeth.

    All is not as it seems.

    Monsters with human faces walk among us. Many of them work for the U.S. government.

    This is the premise of John Carpenter’s film They Live, which was released in November 1988 and remains unnervingly, chillingly appropriate for our modern age.

    Best known for his horror film Halloween, which assumes that there is a form of evil so dark that it can’t be killed, Carpenter’s larger body of work is infused with a strong anti-authoritarian, anti-establishment, laconic bent that speaks to the filmmaker’s concerns about the unraveling of our society, particularly our government.

    Time and again, Carpenter portrays the government working against its own citizens, a populace out of touch with reality, technology run amok, and a future more horrific than any horror film.

    In Escape from New York, Carpenter presents fascism as the future of America.

    In The Thing, a remake of the 1951 sci-fi classic of the same name, Carpenter presupposes that increasingly we are all becoming dehumanized.

    In Christine, the film adaptation of Stephen King’s novel about a demon-possessed car, technology exhibits a will and consciousness of its own and goes on a murderous rampage.

    In In the Mouth of Madness, Carpenter notes that evil grows when people lose “the ability to know the difference between reality and fantasy.”

    And then there is Carpenter’s They Live, in which two migrant workers discover that the world is not as it seems. In fact, the population is actually being controlled and exploited by aliens working in partnership with an oligarchic elite. All the while, the populace—blissfully unaware of the real agenda at work in their lives—has been lulled into complacency, indoctrinated into compliance, bombarded with media distractions, and hypnotized by subliminal messages beamed out of television and various electronic devices, billboards and the like.

    It is only when homeless drifter John Nada (played to the hilt by the late Roddy Piper) discovers a pair of doctored sunglasses—Hoffman lenses—that Nada sees what lies beneath the elite’s fabricated reality: control and bondage.

    When viewed through the lens of truth, the elite, who appear human until stripped of their disguises, are shown to be monsters who have enslaved the citizenry in order to prey on them.

    Likewise, billboards blare out hidden, authoritative messages: a bikini-clad woman in one ad is actually ordering viewers to “MARRY AND REPRODUCE.” Magazine racks scream “CONSUME” and “OBEY.” A wad of dollar bills in a vendor’s hand proclaims, “THIS IS YOUR GOD.”

    When viewed through Nada’s Hoffman lenses, some of the other hidden messages being drummed into the people’s subconscious include: NO INDEPENDENT THOUGHT, CONFORM, SUBMIT, STAY ASLEEP, BUY, WATCH TV, NO IMAGINATION, and DO NOT QUESTION AUTHORITY.

    This indoctrination campaign engineered by the elite in They Live is painfully familiar to anyone who has studied the decline of American culture.

    A citizenry that does not think for themselves, obeys without question, is submissive, does not challenge authority, does not think outside the box, and is content to sit back and be entertained is a citizenry that can be easily controlled.

    In this way, the subtle message of They Live provides an apt analogy of our own distorted vision of life in the American police state, what philosopher Slavoj Žižek refers to as dictatorship in democracy, “the invisible order which sustains your apparent freedom.”

    We’re being fed a series of carefully contrived fictions that bear no resemblance to reality.

    Tune out the government’s attempts to distract, divert and befuddle us and tune into what’s really going on in this country, and you’ll run headlong into an unmistakable, unpalatable truth: what we are dealing with today is an authoritarian beast that has outgrown its chains and will not be restrained.

    Through its acts of power grabs, brutality, meanness, inhumanity, immorality, greed, corruption, debauchery and tyranny, the government has become almost indistinguishable from the evil it claims to be fighting, whether that evil takes the form of terrorism, torture, disease, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, murder, violence, theft, pornography, scientific experimentations or some other diabolical means of inflicting pain, suffering and servitude on humanity.

    We have let the government’s evil-doing and abuses go on for too long.

    We’re being fed a series of carefully contrived fictions that bear no resemblance to reality.

    Despite the fact that we are 17,600 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist attack; 11,000 times more likely to die from an airplane accident than from a terrorist plot involving an airplane; 1,048 times more likely to die from a car accident than a terrorist attack, and 8 times more likely to be killed by a police officer than by a terrorist , we have handed over control of our lives to government officials who treat us as a means to an end—the source of money and power.

    As the Bearded Man in They Live warns, “They are dismantling the sleeping middle class. More and more people are becoming poor. We are their cattle. We are being bred for slavery.”

    We have bought into the illusion and refused to grasp the truth.

    From the moment we are born until we die, we are indoctrinated into believing that those who rule us do it for our own good. The truth is far different.

    The powers-that-be want us to feel threatened by forces beyond our control (terrorists, pandemics, mass shootings, etc.).

    They want us afraid and dependent on the government and its militarized armies for our safety and well-being.

    They want us distrustful of each other, divided by our prejudices, and at each other’s throats.

    Most of all, they want us to continue to march in lockstep with their dictates as fearful, controlled, pacified zombies.

    This brings me back to They Live, in which the real zombies are not the aliens calling the shots but the populace who are content to remain controlled.

    When all is said and done, the world of They Live is not so different from our own. As one of the characters points out, “The poor and the underclass are growing. Racial justice and human rights are nonexistent. They have created a repressive society and we are their unwitting accomplices. Their intention to rule rests with the annihilation of consciousness. We have been lulled into a trance. They have made us indifferent to ourselves, to others. We are focused only on our own gain.”

    We, too, are focused only on our own pleasures, prejudices and gains. Our poor and underclasses are also growing. Injustice is growing. Inequality is growing. A concern for human rights is nearly nonexistent. We too have been lulled into a trance, indifferent to others.

    Oblivious to what lies ahead, we’ve been manipulated into believing that if we continue to consume, obey, and have faith, things will work out. But that’s never been true of emerging regimes. And by the time we feel the hammer coming down upon us, it will be too late.

    So where does that leave us?

    The characters who populate Carpenter’s films provide some insight.

    Underneath their machismo, they still believe in the ideals of liberty and equal opportunity. Their beliefs place them in constant opposition with the law and the establishment, but they are nonetheless freedom fighters.

    When, for example, John Nada destroys the alien hypno-transmitter in They Live, he delivers a wake-up call for freedom. As Nada memorably declares, “I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass. And I’m all out of bubblegum.”

    In other words: we need to get active and take a stand for what’s really important.

    Stop allowing yourselves to be easily distracted by pointless political spectacles and pay attention to what’s really going on in the country.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, the real battle for control of this nation is taking place on roadsides, in police cars, on witness stands, over phone lines, in government offices, in corporate offices, in public school hallways and classrooms, in parks and city council meetings, and in towns and cities across this country.

    All the trappings of the American police state are now in plain sight.

    Wake up, America.

    If they live (the tyrants, the oppressors, the invaders, the overlords), it is only because “we the people” sleep.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 23:25

  • US Ready To Protect Asian Allies With Nukes, Biden Official Says In Tokyo
    US Ready To Protect Asian Allies With Nukes, Biden Official Says In Tokyo

    It’s a hugely alarming scenario when world leaders and government officials representing nuclear-armed superpowers appear to increasingly be spouting nuclear rhetoric and warnings in an almost casual manner.

    US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Tuesday said Washington is ready to protect its Asian allies using nukes if they came under attack, spelling out the US would deploy its “nuclear, conventional and missile defense.”

    Via Reuters

    Washington “will use the full range of US defense capabilities to defend our allies, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities,” the deputy secretary told a Tuesday meeting with South Korean and Japanese officials, ahead of a series of talks this week. She hailed America’s commitment to defense of Seoul and Tokyo as “ironclad”.

    The region is currently on edge after early this week South Korea announced that its intelligence concluded Pyongyang has finalized preparations for what will be its first nuclear test in a half-decade. These warnings of an imminent North Korean nuclear test have been growing louder since early August, with the US backing Seoul’s assessment. 

    Sherman in her comments condemned the recent series of ballistic missile launches by North Korea, calling the record number of tests over the course of the year “deeply irresponsible, dangerous, and destabilizing.”

    One of the more provocative among the latest tests saw a ballistic missile soar over Japan itself. The Asian officials meeting with Sherman in Tokyo agreed that Pyongyang is “creating serious tension on the Korean Peninsula.”

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    Patrol ships from the north and south exchanged warning fire along the shared marine-time border on Monday in but the latest sign tensions are at boiling point. The north is meanwhile angry that the US military has in the last month stepped up its presence in waters off the peninsula, while participating in joint military drills with South Korea.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 23:05

  • Forget Musk's Tunnels, Early Tesla Investor Seeds First-Ever eVTOL Car
    Forget Musk’s Tunnels, Early Tesla Investor Seeds First-Ever eVTOL Car

    We’ve come across many companies debuting futuristic designs of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Some have even tested (see: here & here) and/or have begun selling eVTOLs on the market (see: here). But when it comes to a driveable eVTOL, Alef Aeronautics has a revolutionary design.

    California-based Alef is the only eVTOL with street-driving capabilities. Alef’s Model A prototype was first unveiled last Wednesday.

    The Alef Model A is not a distant dream, expected to enter series production with first deliveries in 4Q25. The cost of the eVTOL that drives on roads and soars over traffic starts at around $300,000. It has a driving range of 200 miles and flies about 110 miles. 

    Reuters said, “The unusual appearance—which features a body that flips on its side to become the wing after lift-off—is just one aspect that attracted Tim Draper, an early investor in Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc and SpaceX whose Draper Associates Fund V has backed Alef with $3 million in seed money.” 

    Draper told Reuters via email: “The design is extraordinary. The sides of the car become the wings when the plane goes horizontal.”

    In a company release, Alef’s CEO, Jim Dukhovny, said the eVTOL is a “modern solution for both urban and rural transportation needs in the 21st century because it is the fastest and most convenient transport ever created from the point of origin to the final destination. By enabling consumers to choose driving or flying mode, the Alef flying car allows the optimal path depending on road conditions, weather and infrastructure.”

    Dukhovny told CNET: “We can actually solve all traffic in the world for the next hundred years.”

    … and there goes Elon Musk’s idea of building tunnels to reduce major cities’ traffic congestion problems. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 22:25

  • Putin's 'Viceroy Of The Donbas' & Top Confidant Seen As Likely Successor To Presidency
    Putin’s ‘Viceroy Of The Donbas’ & Top Confidant Seen As Likely Successor To Presidency

    During the opening months of the Ukraine war top US generals and officials went on record predicting that the conflict is likely to drag on for “years” to come. For example a headline in March observed it will turn into a quagmire, and that lawmakers at the Capitol were briefed “it is likely to last 10, 15, or 20 years.”

    And now, fast-forward to the invasion’s eight-month mark, where it does look to be settling in to a protracted stalemated situation. All the while speculation over the future of “Putin’s war” and even his personal health abounds, with sensational headlines such as this in the UK Times this month: “Putin at 70: isolated, irrational and fearing for his health.”

    Speculation over whether the 70-year old Putin will stay in power (and good health) long enough to see his own war in neighboring Ukraine through to a conclusion has naturally given way to questions over a potential successor for leadership, at a moment US and EU sanctions and global condemnation have left Russia more isolated than ever, and at the same time power under Putin’s administration has become the most centralized since the collapse of the USSR.

    Presidential first deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko, via AP.​​​​​

    A fresh report in The Telegraph this week suggests that a career politician and Kremlin insider is likely Putin’s top pick to inherit power, as he was singularly hailed for overseeing the ‘successful’ annexation of the four occupied regions of Ukraine. “For 60-year-old Sergei Kiriyenko, this was the culmination of a mission that he’d been given by Putin,” the report introduces. “Everybody was celebrating and he’d played a major role in the enlargement of Russia.”

    “Kiriyenko was in charge of referendums in these regions even if it was the FSB that managed them in the end,” said think tank analyst and Russia-watcher Tatiana Stanovaya. The Telegraph observes, “And now, perhaps mischievously, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military spy chief, has said that Putin is even lining up the loyal Mr Kiriyenko as a successor.”

    The report gives a further snapshot of Kiriyenko’s early political career, who in the late 1990’s served as prime minister under Boris Yeltsin, as follows:

    Nobody knows the paranoid Putin’s succession plans but the Russian leader trusts Mr Kiriyenko, who has made the philosophical journey from supporting Western liberalism in the 1990s to promoting Putin’s authoritarianism now.

    A technocrat and a follower of the philosopher-founder of the Moscow Methodological Circle, which believes that people and society can be programmed, Mr Kiriyenko has had to rely on patronage from more powerful Russians to make his career.

    He was appointed Russia’s youngest prime minister at the age of 35 in 1998 by then-president Boris Yeltsin on the suggestion of Boris Nemtsov, the poster boy of Russian liberalism who was murdered on a bridge next to the Kremlin in 2015.

    RFERL: For his baby face and surprise entrance into top politics, the Russian media dubbed Kiriyenko “Kinder surprise,” a reference to popular chocolate eggs containing surprise toys.

    Currently he serves as First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia – a role he’s occupied all the way back to 2016, when he was appointed by Putin. Some European outlets have lately dubbed him the ‘Viceroy of the Donas’ for his role in the annexation votes in eastern Ukraine.

    Kiriyenko is also considered the man who is personally responsible for Putin’s path to the presidency, being the first to put him forward to head up the FSB intelligence agency under Yeltsin in 1998.

    France24 recently featured the following description of Kiriyenko: “The bald and stern-faced 60-year-old entered Putin’s deepest inner circle in 2016, when he was named first deputy head of the presidential office.”

    Sergey Kiriyenko (center) at a State Council session in June 2019, via Kommersant

    His influence has only grown alongside Putin’s in the meantime, as France24 writes further, “Since then, and thanks to the convenient catch-all title he was given, Putin has been able to task him with any mission he desires, including last week’s sham referendums in the disputed regions in Ukraine, according to American geopolitical think tank GlobalSecurity.org.”

    As for Kiriyenko playing the role of personal envoy overseeing political assimilation of occupied regions of Ukraine, this has seen some very “hands on” moments. The Telegraph notes that recently, “Videos show him inspecting damage to the Crimea Bridge and unveiling a statue of a patriotic granny in Mariupol, the Ukraine city that Russian forces had bombed to the ground.”

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    However, the report also concludes there are reasons to think that his power won’t outlast Putin’s own… “But Mr Kiriyenko doesn’t have his own power base and no influence within Russia’s powerful security services. His closeness to Putin is a strength and weakness, said Prof Petrov.”

    Petrov told the publication, “He is strong now because of his proximity to Putin but with Putin weakening this could change,” as it remains that Kiriyenko “is a tool, a loyal tool for his boss.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 21:45

  • Federal Data Quietly Reveals 100 Terror Suspects Caught At Southern Border
    Federal Data Quietly Reveals 100 Terror Suspects Caught At Southern Border

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Newly published federal data reveals that close to a hundred individuals listed on the FBI terror watchlist have been apprehended at the Southern border in the last year, a record high and a huge uptick in recent months.

    The Customs and Border Protection agency data, released without fanfare on Friday night, reveals that so far this year 98 individuals apprehended attempting to get into the U.S. at the southern border were suspected terrorists or closely affiliated with terrorist organizations.

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    The figure has jumped from just 27 in early April.

    In September alone, 20 terror suspects were arrested on the border, up from 12 in August.

    The data was highlighted by Fox News reporter Bill Melugin in a report this week, as he noted that the figure is almost four times the previous five years combined:

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    Previous data from 2019 indicated that zero terror suspects had been encountered at the border.

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    As Melugin previously highlighted, CBP sources say there have been more than half a million ‘gotaways’ this year alone (that figure is now close to 600,000), and close to a million since the beginning of last year, begging the question how many of them were on the terror watchlist and are now roaming around the country freely?

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    The number of migrants encountered at the border now stands at almost 2.4 million for the year, with over 227,000 in September alone.

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    There were also a record number of deaths.

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    Responding to the latest data release, Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), the top Republican on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, said in a statement Monday “Our adversaries know they can enter our country through our failed border.”

    Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), the top Republican on the Senate homeland security appropriations subcommittee, added that the Border Patrol is “overrun” and the “consequences of these lax enforcement actions should concern every single American.”

    In addition, the new data shows that Feds seized close to 15 thousand pounds of fentanyl from smugglers attempting to get it across the border, seven times as much compared to five years ago.

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    Biden officials continue to claim the border is secure.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 21:25

  • Republicans Find Their Footing On Abortion
    Republicans Find Their Footing On Abortion

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClear Wire,

    Earlier this week, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio stood his ground on a debate stage at the Lake Worth campus of Palm Beach College. His opponent is seasoned Democratic lawmaker Val Demings, a black congresswoman and former police chief, and the discussion had turned to abortion rights – terrain that Democrats believe favor them and give Demings and other Senate candidates a chance to alter the expected outcome of the 2022 midterms.

    “I’m 100% pro-life not because I want to deny anyone their rights but because I believe that innocent human life is worthy of the protection under the law,” Rubio said. While noting he has supported legislation that includes exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother’s health, he then went on offense, arguing that “the extremist on abortion in this campaign” is his opponent.

    Like Democrats around the country, Demings had been running ads hitting her Republican opponent on abortion for more than a month. During their debate, Rubio delivered his rebuttal. “She supports no restrictions, no limitations of any kind – she’s against a four-month ban, she voted against a five-month ban,” he said. “She supports taxpayer-funded abortion on demand for any reason any time up until the moment of birth.”

    Demings, the former chief of police in Orlando who investigated rape and incest cases while in uniform, was equally forceful in her response. She accused Rubio of being dishonest with Florida voters because he had previously said he personally opposes all abortions without exceptions, including for victims of rape and incest. “How gullible do you think Florida voters are?” she retorted.  

    Both sides strongly articulated their points and defended their views. But Rubio’s decision to come out swinging won rave reviews from pro-life groups. For months, these advocates have pressed Republicans to fight fire with fire when it comes to abortion because, they argued, Americans’ positions on the issue are much more nuanced than many topline poll results have shown.

    “It’s a basic rule of politics that you identify the contrast with your opponent, and you leverage it to your advantage,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, told RealClearPolitics. “I think that after a little bit of clearing of the throat, our candidates are doing an excellent job. And in places where they don’t do that the abortion issue may get the better of them, but in places where they do, they’ll gain the advantage.”

    Yet, if this summer’s headlines were to be believed, Republicans were doing far more serious faltering than minor throat-clearing.

    “In sprint to November, Democrats seize on shifting landscape over abortion: No issue has upended the battle for Congress and state races so abruptly,” the Washington Post proclaimed in early September.

    “‘Pink Wave’ Poised to Upend Republican Midterm Prospects,” proclaimed U.S. News & World Report, citing a surge in women planning to vote in November. 

    In the weeks following the Supreme Court’s late June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Democrats aggressively took the fight to Republicans, many of whom either downplayed their anti-abortion stances or sought to avoid the topic altogether. Democrats were especially jubilant in late August after Republicans lost a special election in a swing New York district in which their candidate laid out clear battle lines on abortion.

    “Republicans can say good-bye to their ‘Red Wave’ because voters are clearly coming out in force to elect a pro-choice majority to Congress this November,” declared Sean Patrick Maloney, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. .

    In the final sprint toward November, however, Maloney himself is in a more competitive race than expected, against GOP Assemblyman Mike Lawler in a newly redrawn district. Nearly every poll shows that voters’ concerns over inflation and the economy are greatly surpassing any other issue in the race, including abortion.

    A few weeks ago, the political dynamic shifted as inflation continued to climb, and many economists predicted that the economy is on the brink of a recession. Several prominent voices on the left, including veteran strategist James Carville and Sen. Bernie Sanders, started warning fellow Democrats that their hyper-focus on abortion could backfire.

    “It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word,” Carville told the Associated Press.

    There was plenty of criticism on the right too, as anti-abortion groups griped that GOP candidates were overreacting to the Dobbs decision by cowering in fear and hoping the issue would somehow just go away.

    Dannenfelser and others pointed to what they cast as encouraging data from a late June Harvard CAPS/Harris poll on the question of where Americans stand on late-term abortions. Even amid the huge media outcry over the overturning of Roe, 72% of Americans agreed that abortion should be banned no later than 15 weeks, while only 10% said it should be allowed up until viability, when the fetus can live outside the womb – or approximately 24 weeks.

    Anti-abortion advocates argue that the findings directly undermine the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would enshrine Roe v. Wade protections into law and make abortion legal until the point of viability. Every House Democrat except one voted for the bill in the wake of Dobbs, but the measure sank in the Senate, where Republicans opposed it.

    After the poll results were released, abortion opponents pressed Republicans to turn the tables and force Democrats to define precisely when during pregnancy they would draw the line and say abortion should be barred. “If candidates support laws that permit abortion all the way up to birth, they are out of step with the American public, and Republicans should not be afraid to call them out on it,” Dannenfelser wrote in a Washington Post op-ed in late August.

    Over the last month, J.D. Vance and Blake Masters, as well as Rep. Ted Budd, GOP candidates running for Senate in Ohio, Arizona, and North Carolina, respectively, have been doing just that – vigorously defended their pro-life positions while calling on their Democratic opponents to define theirs more precisely.

    “[Ryan] says he wants to codify Roe … he voted for a piece of legislation that would have overturned Roe and required abortion on demand at 40 weeks for fully elective reasons,” Vance said during his debate with Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan in mid-October. “He also voted for a piece of legislation that would have prevented doctors from providing medical care to babies who survived botched abortions.”

    All three – Vance, Masters, and Budd – have remained ahead by roughly the same margin or have strengthened their standing in the polls. Other GOP candidates – from those running for governor to others trying to knock off Democratic House incumbents – have also sharpened their anti-abortion rhetoric in recent weeks. In some key battleground states, however, the abortion issue has put Republican candidates at a disadvantage.

    During the Georgia Senate debate last week, football great Herschel Walker took Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to task for what he cast as extreme abortion positions. But the issue was already causing Walker trouble after a former girlfriend accused him of asking her to have an abortion and paying for it. Walker has denied the story, but his standing in the polls has ticked down a few points from when the story first broke.

    Adam Laxalt, Nevada’s former attorney general who is trying to unseat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in the decidedly pro-choice Silver State, is running a careful, focused campaign on the economy. Instead of pressing his opponent to define her limits on abortion, he’s accusing Democrats of mistakenly using all their energy and resources to make the midterms an abortion referendum when voters are far more worried about the skyrocketing cost of living.

    Laxalt has promised to oppose a national abortion ban and said Nevada will remain a pro-choice state, arguing that the state level is where abortion should be decided. Aside from a few races, however, most Republicans appear to be finding their footing on abortion, while Democrats show no indication of taking their foot off the gas.

    Three weeks ahead of the election, President Biden promised to codify Roe v. Wade if Democrats win the midterms – a pledge he could only keep if the party wins several more seats in the Senate and avoids the off-year midterm losses that so many of his predecessors have suffered. Ahead of his speech, Planned Parenthood, EMILY’s List and NARAL sent out a press release reminding reporters that they had pledged to spend an unprecedented $150 million mobilizing and energizing voters around the country “at levels never seen.”

    Abortion rights activists argue that Republicans like Rubio and other unabashedly pro-life conservatives are throwing up smokescreens by focusing on late-term abortions to distract from their previously stated beliefs that there should be no exceptions for rape, incest, or the mother’s health.

    “What they’re doing now is a clever political trick to try to change the subject and say a little bit about abortion and just move on,” Christina Reynolds, a spokeswoman for EMILY’s List, told RCP. “I hope that voters see through it and understand that, and we’re working to make sure they understand the real positions of people [in office or campaigning for office] and what they actually plan to do.”

    Late-term abortions occur in a very small number of cases that usually involve “incredibly tragic medical issues and decisions that women need to make on their own with their doctors,” she said, adding that the decision comes down to whether you want the government involved in those decisions. Even if economic issues are front and center in voters’ minds, Democrats say they will keep fighting on abortion because it helps turn out the vote in an election year when their party is facing severe headwinds.

    “We were facing a significant enthusiasm gap, and the Dobbs decision changed that almost overnight,” Reynolds said. “It’s energized people who maybe wouldn’t have otherwise turned out … it reminded us that you’ve got to get out there and fight in every election. People were talking about a huge Republican wave, and I don’t think we’re going to see that.”

    Only the election returns – and the exit polls – will tell us for sure, but for now, both sides are using whatever abortion ammunition they have at their disposal. While Democrats up and down the ballot continue hammering away on the issue in television ads and debates, many Republicans are finally standing their ground, firing off their salvos with new confidence.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 20:45

  • After Sending Out 240,000 Unverified Ballots, Pennsylvania Now Warns Of 'Delays' Counting Midterm Votes
    After Sending Out 240,000 Unverified Ballots, Pennsylvania Now Warns Of ‘Delays’ Counting Midterm Votes

    Here we go again…

    Just one day after 15 Pennsylvania House Republicans sent a letter to acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman demanding to know why 240,000 unverified ballots had been mailed out (“which, according to the law, must be set aside and not counted for the 2022 General Election unless the voter produces lD,” the lawmakers wrote), Chapman revealed that there will likely be delays posting the results after the midterm elections.

    Acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman spoke on Monday, Oct. 24 to discuss voting procedures throughout the state.

    “It’s really important for us to get accurate information about the election process in Pennsylvania,” Chapman said during a virtual conference, where she said it would likely take ‘several days’ to count and certify the votes.

    “So voters and the public know that when there are delays in counting, it doesn’t mean that there’s anything nefarious happening. It’s just what the law is in Pennsylvania.”

    According to Chapman, the delays would be attributed to poll workers not being able to pre-canvas, or count mail-in ballots prior to election day.

    She also encouraged voters to go ahead and send in their ballots, contrary to Republican messaging which urged voters to hold onto their mail-in ballots and turn them in to their local board of elections on election day – which Chapman said could (somehow) cause voters to become disenfranchised.

    “We have heard that there’s messaging out there in Pennsylvania, as far as instructing voters to hold onto their mail-in ballots,” she said, adding “As part of our voter education campaign, we encourage voters to request that mail-in ballot now and return it as soon as possible. We don’t want voters to delay.”

    Chapman took the opportunity to convey concerns she says stem from ‘misinformation’ – threats to interrupt voting and calls to delay the sending of mail-in ballots.

    While she didn’t detail a specific incident, Chapman said there have been reports of threats aimed at the voting process throughout the state. She promised that her office has worked to investigate any threat made toward a free and fair election.

    “Since I’ve been in office in January, we have constantly met with the FBI and Homeland Security just to talk through what the current threat landscape is and tools that we can give our counties to make sure that they have physical security protection as well as cyber security protection,” she said.

    “So it’s been great to partner with both the federal and state law enforcement organizations. We are in constant communication with them and it’s a situation that we are monitoring,” Chapman added. –Lehigh Valley News

    According to Chapman, over 1.2 million mail-in ballots have been requested across the state, and 43% – or 556,000, have been returned.

    So does that mean that nearly 25% of mail-in ballots sent out were unverified?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 20:25

  • Uranium, Energy And Oil Still Have Room To Run
    Uranium, Energy And Oil Still Have Room To Run

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    This is the latest from Harris Kupperman, founder of Praetorian Capital, a hedge fund focused on using macro trends to guide stock selection. Mr. Kupperman is also the chief adventurer at Adventures in Capitalism, a website that details his investments and travels.

    I published recent thoughts from Harris just days ago, in a post outlining his thoughts on why the Fed has backed themselves into a corner they can’t get out of.

    Harris is one of my favorite Twitter follows and I find his opinions – especially on macro and commodities – to be extremely resourceful. I’m certain my readers will find the same. I was excited when he offered up his latest investor letter to Fringe Finance, which is published in part below.

    Harris On Markets and Macro

    I have genuinely been surprised at the vigor with which the Federal Reserve has raised rates in their campaign to quash inflation. For my entire investing career, the Fed has been dovish, standing by and ready to reassure speculators at every market gyration. For the first time in my career, they’re actively targeting the stock market in an effort to create a recession and reduce the “wealth effect” when it comes to consumer spending. This is a terrifying policy change that was unexpected by most market observers—including myself. 

    At the same time, I feel that they have no real heart for this campaign. As political animals, they’ll be forced to pivot after they succeed in breaking something. Unfortunately, breaking something may lead to scary outcomes in the shorter term and we’ve kept our exposures at reduced levels until it is clear that they’re ready to pivot. When they do pivot, I believe that energy will be the primary beneficiary as both oil and uranium currently exhibit structural deficits that will be difficult to overcome absent substantial increases in capital spending. 

    In fact, I think that the magnitude of the movements in energy pricing will stun people who are accustomed to gradual changes in commodity price regimes. If anything, the volatility in European energy prices ought to be a wake-up call for all market participants. It would seem that with structural deficits and rapidly growing demand, the rules have adjusted, and many investors are unprepared for the change. To me, this creates opportunity.   

    Unfortunately for the Fed, higher energy prices will feed into higher structural inflation levels and at some point, the Fed will have to decide if they want to continue fighting inflation (which is likely impossible to quash outside of a global depression that dramatically reduces energy demand) or if they want to adjust their mandate and accept an increased level of inflation. Despite them clinging to their inflation-fighting mandate all year, I believe they have no desire to inflict a depression on voters. They’ll eventually pivot and accept dramatically higher inflation levels, while continuing to subsidize interest rates to avert the depression that they seem fixated on creating. As a result, we have continued to increase our exposure to US housing on this pullback, as that will be a prime beneficiary of this set of macroeconomic outcomes.

    Thoughts On Portfolio Valuations

    Despite only experiencing a -2.87% net decline (performance net of fees) in our fund since the start of the year, many of our largest positions have experienced far more dramatic declines and now represent unusual value. As a way of demonstrating the magnitude of the declines, as of the end of the third quarter, these are our top 5 positions and the declines experienced from their peak price points during 2022. 

     

    Now, you should be asking yourself how it is possible that so many positions have declined dramatically, yet the fund hasn’t performed demonstrably worse. The answer would be a combination of continued gains from the Event-Driven book, realized gains on a number of profitable investments and loss mitigation strategies when trading around core positions. Additionally, we did not own BLDR or BNO at the start of the year, so they are new additions, purchased at depressed prices. Absent these factors, our returns for the year would have been a good deal worse. While the percentage decline from the peak price in a year, is a somewhat arbitrary way to think about a portfolio’s return, I think it is important to point out that the portfolio itself is doing a whole lot better than its larger components. Additionally, the magnitude of the declines from the peak prices is likely indicative of the relative value inherent in our portfolio. 

    Get 50% off: If you would like to support my work and have the means, I would love to have you as a subscriber and can offer you 50% off for life: Get 50% off forever

    As an absolute performance vehicle, I believe that a benchmark would be a foolish metric to use when referencing this fund’s performance. At the same time, it’s hard to ignore the fact that many global equity and bond markets are down dramatically, and our fund is down a good deal less despite being more than 100% net long for most of the year and rarely utilizing shorts or hedges. I believe this is due to my constant focus on sectors that are positively inflecting with strong macro tailwinds. History has shown that despite what happens in global economics or geopolitics, there is always a bull market somewhere. The key is to identify those bull markets and then find the components within those markets that offer exponential upside with a reduced opportunity for a permanent loss of capital. Discipline in this regard often trumps simple valuation, as cheap stocks can always get cheaper. Meanwhile, those with strong tailwinds rarely stay cheap for long. 

    As a result of focusing on inflecting trends, we’ve side-stepped a good deal of the carnage in global risk markets, while capturing returns from the Event-Driven book. As a result, I think that we’ve set ourselves up for the continuation of the various trends that we are most fixated on. While history only somewhat repeats when it comes to the markets, my experience has been that strong trends often struggle to produce price positive performance during periods of overall market weakness. Then, when there is a pause in the decline of the overall market, those positions that declined the least with the broader market, tend to lead the next charge higher. The overall strength of many of our positions is indicative to me that we may be setting up for a similar explosive move higher in our portfolio positions when the market eventually bottoms. 

    For now, my focus is on avoiding unforced errors, keeping exposure down and being prepared to dramatically increase our exposure to inflation assets when the Fed finally pauses in its rate cycle. 

    Russian Securities

    During last quarter’s letter, I gave an update on our Russian securities positions and noted that we had moved them into a side-pocket and marked them all at zero. Nothing has changed regarding the side-pocket or the mark on the positions. However, we did succeed in removing the GDR wrapper from 3 of our Russian positions and now own Russian shares. Our fourth position is a Cypriot company and thus far, we have not been capable of removing the GDR wrapper. Fortunately, it does not appear to be at the same risk of disappearing if we do not remove the wrapper.

    While it may require some time until we can liquidate these positions, we believe that we’ll ultimately realize sizable gains on them. 

    Position Review (top 5 position weightings at quarter end from largest to smallest)

    Uranium Basket (Entities holding physical uranium along with production and exploration companies)

    It may take some time still, but I believe that society will eventually settle on nuclear power as a compromise solution for baseload power generation. This will come at a time when there is a deficit of uranium production, compared with growing demand. As aboveground stocks are consumed, uranium prices should appreciate towards the marginal cost of production. Additionally, there is currently an entity named Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U – Canada) that is aggressively issuing shares through an At-The-Market offering, or ATM, in order to purchase uranium (we are long this entity). I believe that these uranium purchases will accelerate the price realization function by sequestering much of the available above-ground stockpile at a time when utilities have run down their inventories and need substantial purchases to re-stock. The combination of these factors ought to lead to a dramatic increase in the price of uranium as it will take at least two years for incremental supply to come online—even if the re-start decision were made today. 

    While most of our exposure to physical uranium is within the Sprott trust, because it allows us to express this view with reduced risk, we also own shares of Kazatomprom (KAP – UK). I am well aware that mining is one of the riskiest businesses out there, but Kazatomprom is the lowest-cost diversified producer globally, with incredible scale in what is a highly-consolidated industry. At the same time, I recognize that we take on certain risks when owning a company engaged in mineral extraction, especially in a country like Kazakhstan that can be politically unstable at times. That said, I believe that the recent change in government will do little to impact the operating environment in Kazakhstan, though the tax rate may expand moderately. 

    Rancang Senjata Nuklir, Iran Mulai Produksi Logam Uranium

    Ironically, uranium will be a prime beneficiary of sanctions on Russia as Russia is one of the world’s largest enrichers of uranium. As the West is forced to enrich more of the uranium that ultimately goes into reactors, underfeeding of tails will flip to an overfeeding of tails. The net effect could be anywhere between 10% and 30% of the global supply of uranium disappearing—which may dramatically accelerate the timing of my thesis while increasing the ultimate magnitude of the upward swing in uranium prices.  

    Energy Services Basket (Positions Not Currently Disclosed)

    In 2020 when oil traded below zero, drilling activity ground to a halt and many energy service providers declared bankruptcy. Many of these businesses had teetered on the verge of bankruptcy for years due to reduced demand and over-leveraged balance sheets. The bankruptcies led to consolidation and reduced future industry capacity, removing future competition in the recovery. 

    With oil prices now at multi-year highs, I believe that demand for drilling and other services will recover. While producers have been slow to increase spending on exploration, despite dramatic recoveries in energy prices, I believe that this only extends the timing on the thesis. In the end, the only way to reduce energy prices is to see a dramatic increase in global oilfield services spending. Any postponement of this spending only leads to higher prices and more wealth transfer from the global economy to the oil producers, which will likely end up resulting in an increase in spending on exploration and production. 

    We purchased many of these positions at fractions of the equipment’s replacement cost, despite restored balance sheets and positive operating cash flow. As spending in the sector recovers, I believe that the potential for cash flow will become more apparent and this equipment will trade up to valuations closer to replacement cost. 

    Oil Futures, Futures and ETF Options and Call Spreads

    I believe that years of reduced capital expenditures, along with ESG restricting capital access, combined with Western governments that are openly hostile to fossil fuels, have created an environment for dramatically higher oil prices. While we could purchase oil producers, I feel it is far more conservative to simply own the physical commodity itself. We own December 2025 oil futures, along with various futures calls and call spreads, an ETF and ETF call options and call spreads. I believe that this leveraged play on oil gives us the most upside to oil and ultimately inflation, while exposing us to reduced risk when compared to producers. 

    St. Joe (JOE – USA)

    JOE owns approximately 175,000 acres in the Florida Panhandle. It has been widely known that JOE traded for a tiny fraction of its liquidation value for years, but without a catalyst, it was always perceived to be “dead money.”  

    Over the past few years, the population of the Panhandle has hit a critical mass where the Panhandle now has a center of gravity that is attracting people who want to live in one of the prettiest places in the country, with zero state income taxes and few of the problems of large cities. 

    The oddity of the current disdain for so-called “value investments” is that many of them are growing quite fast. I believe that JOE will grow revenue at 30% to 50% each year for the foreseeable future, with earnings growing at a much faster clip. Meanwhile, I believe the shares trade at a single-digit multiple on Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) looking out to 2024, while substantial asset value is tossed in for free. 

    Besides the valuation, growth, and high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of the business, why else do I like JOE? For starters, land tends to appreciate rapidly during periods of high inflation— particularly an inflationary period where interest rates are likely to remain suppressed by the Federal Reserve. More importantly, I believe we are about to witness a massive population migration as people with means choose to flee big cities for somewhere peaceful. 

    I suspect that every convulsion of urban chaos and/or tax-the-rich scheming will launch JOE shares higher, and it will ultimately be seen as the way to “play” the stream of very wealthy refugees fleeing for somewhere better. 

    Builders FirstSource (BLDR – USA)

    Builders FirstSource produces and distributes building materials, primarily for the home building industry. It trades at a low-single digit cash flow multiple on recent earnings and is using that cash flow to rapidly repurchase shares. One could say that the low multiple is due to peak cyclical earnings. I take a different view and believe that we’re in the early stages of a long-term housing boom caused by migration to low tax states along with a catch-up phase as home construction rates were below trendline over the past decade.

    I believe that the US needs in excess of 1 million new single-family homes each year, just to provide for population growth, ignoring the other factors. As a result, this business does not appear to be at peak earnings; instead, I believe we are seeing a new baseline for earnings—though the earnings will be quite volatile—particularly if interest rates remain elevated or increase further. 

    Summary

    In summary, during the third quarter of 2022, the fund experienced a pullback in many of its core positions. I have used this pullback to moderately increase a number of our positions, which has increased our overall exposure. Our exposure is a bit more concentrated in inflation, particularly in energy, than I’d normally expect it to be, but those are also my favorite themes. We’ve expressed this view through instruments like physical uranium, long-dated oil futures and futures options, energy equipment services companies, and land plays, which I believe should have a reduced risk of permanent impairment. 

    I also believe we are in the early stages of this inflationary boom and while there will be sizable volatility going forward, we are positioned well. 

    Harris’ Disclaimer:

    Nothing set forth herein shall constitute an offer to sell any securities or constitute a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities.  Any such offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase shall be made only by formal offering documents for Praetorian Capital Fund LLC (the “Fund”) which include, among others, a confidential offering memorandum, operating agreement and subscription agreement.  Such formal offering documents contain additional information not set forth herein, including information regarding certain risks of investing in the Fund, which are material to any decision to invest in the Fund.

    No information is warranted by PCM or its affiliates or subsidiaries as to completeness or accuracy, express or implied, and is subject to change without notice.  This document contains forward-looking statements, including observations about markets and industry and regulatory trends as of the original date of this document.  Forward-looking statements may be identified by, among other things, the use of words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” or “estimates,” or the negatives of these terms, and similar expressions.  Forwardlooking statements reflect PCM’s views as of such date with respect to possible future events.  Actual results could differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of factors beyond PCM’s control.  Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. No party has an obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this document.

    Opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements in these materials constitute PCM’s judgment and should be considered current only as of the date of publication without regard to the date on which you may receive or access the information.  PCM maintains the right to delete or modify information without prior notice.  Statements made herein that are not attributed to a third-party source reflect the views and opinions of PCM.  

    Return targets or objectives, if any, are used for measurement or comparison purposes and only as a guideline for prospective investors to evaluate a particular investment program’s investment strategies and accompanying information.  Targeted returns reflect subjective determinations by PCM based on a variety of factors, including, among others, internal modeling, investment strategy, prior performance of similar products (if any), volatility measures, risk tolerance and market conditions.  Performance may fluctuate, especially over short periods.  Targeted returns should be evaluated over the time period indicated and not over shorter periods.  Targeted returns are not intended to be actual performance and should not be relied upon as an indication of actual or future performance. 

    The past performance of the Fund, or PCM, its principals, members, or employees is not indicative of future returns.  The performance reflected herein and the performance for any given investor may differ due to various factors including, without limitation, the timing of subscriptions and withdrawals, applicable management fees and incentive allocations, and the investor’s ability to participate in new issues.

    All references to a “net return” or “performance, net of fees” within this letter are for a net return of an investor that is subject to all standard fees and accrued incentive allocation, if any, at Praetorian Capital Fund LLC (“PCF”), as provided for in the PCF’s offering documents, and has been an investor in the PCF since the beginning of the current year or period.

    There is no guarantee that PCM will be successful in achieving the Fund’s investment objectives.  An investment in the Fund contains risks, including the risk of complete loss.

    The investments discussed herein are not meant to be indicative or reflective of the portfolio of the fund.  Rather, such examples are meant to exemplify PCM’s analysis for the fund and the execution of the fund’s investment strategy.  While these examples may reflect successful trading, obviously not all trades are successful and profitable. As such, the examples contained herein should not be viewed as representative of all trades made by PCM.

    QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important. I have no business relationship with Harris and am not an investor with him.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 20:05

  • Democrat Scheme To Alienate 'Election Denier' GOP Candidates Backfires Spectacularly
    Democrat Scheme To Alienate ‘Election Denier’ GOP Candidates Backfires Spectacularly

    Democrat attempts to dehumanize their ‘election denier’ GOP opponents is backfiring spectacularly, as a new report from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight reveals there are ‘well over a hundred’ midterm GOP candidates who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election ‘have a strong chance of winning their race.’

    Of the 185 Republican candidates running for House, Senate and governor’s seats who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 124 — or 67 percent — are in races our forecast currently pins at “Solid R,” meaning they have a 95-in-100 or better chance of winning. Overall, a bigger share of election deniers are running in Solid R races than Republican candidates in general: Of the 496 Republican candidates running for House, Senate and governor, 225 — or 45 percent — are in Solid R races. -FiveThirtyEight

    One such wrong-thinker is Anna Paulina Luna – a GOP candidate for Florida’s 13th district who, per the report, “donned a red-carpet-worthy ball gown to a screening of “2000 Mules,” a debunked documentary that falsely claims to show evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.” (The ‘debunking’ makes for great bathroom reading, by the way)

    In June, Luna proclaimed “I believe that President Trump won that election, and I do believe that voter fraud occurred.”

    And now she’s likely to be elected to Congress…

    Luna is the Republican candidate for Florida’s 13th District, on the Gulf Coast around St. Petersburg. During redistricting last year, Republicans redrew this previously competitive district to be much redder, and as a result, Luna has a 97-in-100 shot at beating her Democrat opponent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, as of Monday at 12 p.m. Eastern. (All numbers in this story are as of that same time and date.)

    Interestingly, candidates running for the House who question the 2020 election are fairing better than those running to be governor or Senator, with 70% running in “Solid R” races (likely to win), while just two out of seven running for Governor are favored to win. In the Senate, three out of eight ‘election deniers’ (Katie Britt (AL), Eric Schmitt (MO) and Markwayne Mullin (OK)) have better than 95-100 odds.

    Also interesting is that GOP candidates who have accepted the legitimacy of the 2020 election are less likely than their ‘election-denying’ counterparts to be in ‘Solid R’ races.

    Of the 67 Republican candidates who accept the 2020 election, 30 — or 45 percent — are running in races where they have 95-in-100 or better odds. This includes candidates such as North Dakota Sen. John Hoeven, who is running for reelection and is one of the Republicans who voted to certify the 2020 election results. 

    On the other side of the coin, around 19% of election denying candidates (36) are running in races where a Democrat is likely to win.

    There are currently four toss-ups involving ‘election-denying’ candidates; Kari Lake, who’s running for governor in Arizona; Monica De La Cruz and Mike Garcia, who are running for House seats in Texas and California, respectively; and Senate candidate Adam Laxalt in Nevada.

    It may also be the case that Democrats have steered the country into such a tailspin that a GOP sack of flour would win, but ‘election denier’ status doesn’t seem to have hurt conservative candidates.

    Maybe Nate Silver can tally how the 2016 Democrat election deniers are doing?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 19:45

  • Justice Alito: Leak Of Supreme Court's Abortion Decision Made Conservative Justices "Targets For Assassination"
    Justice Alito: Leak Of Supreme Court’s Abortion Decision Made Conservative Justices “Targets For Assassination”

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

    Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito said the leak earlier this year of a draft opinion reversing Roe v. Wade made conservative justices “targets for assassination” and changed the atmosphere at the court.

    Alito’s comments came during a moderated conversation at the Heritage Foundation in the nation’s capital on Oct. 25. At the end of the discussion, Alito was given Heritage’s Defender of the Constitution Award.

    At the event, Alito also lamented the lack of freedom of speech in higher education, said legal precedent was overrated as a means of deciding cases and said that the court’s Citizens United ruling years ago allowing corporations to fund political campaigns has been misunderstood by critics.

    The leak took place while the court’s members were considering how to rule in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

    An early version of Alito’s draft majority opinion in Dobbs made its way to the media, an unprecedented leak of a full high court opinion. Politico published the draft document dated Feb. 10 on May 2 without disclosing its source. In both the draft and the final version of the Dobbs decision issued June 24, the court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 precedent that legalized abortion nationwide. The Dobbs ruling, which held that there is no constitutional right to abortion, returned the regulation of abortion to the states. In Dobbs, the court also reversed a related 1992 precedent, Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey, which declared that a woman had a right to obtain an abortion before fetal viability without undue interference from the state.

    The leak “was a great betrayal of trust by somebody,” Alito said, without providing any new information about the leak investigation being conducted by court officials. Suspicions and theories abound, but the identity of the leaker or leakers is still unknown.

    “It certainly changed the atmosphere at the court for the remainder of the last term. The leak also made those of us who were thought to be in the majority in support of overruling Roe and Casey targets for assassination because it gave people a rational reason to think they could prevent that from happening by killing one of us.”

    Police stand outside the home of Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh as pro-abortion advocates protest in Chevy Chase, Md., on May 11, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    Alito noted that a man has been charged in connection with a plot to assassinate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, but refused to say more because the matter is still before the courts.

    Hostility to Free Speech

    Alito said he was concerned about hostility to free speech in colleges and universities.

    Based on reports he has read, the situation is “pretty abysmal, and it’s really dangerous for our future as a united democratic country.”

    “We depend on freedom of speech … [which] is essential. Colleges and universities should be setting the example, and law schools should be setting the example for the university because our adversary system is based on the principle that the best way to get at the truth is to have a strong presentation of opposing views, so law students should be free to speak their minds without worrying about the consequences.

    “And they should have their ideas tested in rational debate and if law schools are not doing that and according to these reports, some of them are not doing that, they are really not carrying out their responsibility.”

    Alito’s comments came after two federal judges appointed by then-President Donald Trump vowed in recent weeks not to hire judicial clerks from Yale Law School because they say its campus is dominated by cancel culture. The two judges are James Ho of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit and Elizabeth Branch of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit.

    Ho was incensed by the treatment of Kristen Waggoner of the conservative Alliance Defending Freedom at a March 10 event at the law school. Students physically threatened and shouted down Waggoner during a panel discussion about Uzuegbunam v. Preczewski in which the Supreme Court found another college violated students’ right to religious free speech on campus. Waggoner was their lawyer.

    According to National Review, 14 federal judges have joined the Yale boycott.

    Alito also defended the court’s decision in Citizens United v. FEC (2010), which held that the free speech protections of the First Amendment applied not only to individuals but also to corporations, nonprofits, and labor unions.

    The ruling, which has been bitterly attacked by the left for more than a decade, struck down part of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 that forbade independent expenditure-funded “electioneering communication” by such organizations within 30 days of a primary election or 60 days of a general election, or from making any expenditure advocating the election or defeat of a candidate at any time.

    The case arose when Citizens United, a conservative not-for-profit corporation, wanted to broadcast a film it made critical of then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton before the Democratic Party’s presidential primaries in 2008.

    Alito said that Citizens United “held that a little corporation, Citizens United, had the right to talk about the qualifications of a candidate for high public office in the period shortly before the election—that goes to the very core of what the First Amendment protects.

    “The main popular criticism of the decision that you hear is … that freedom of speech applies to human beings. It doesn’t apply to corporations. To this day, I think you can get bumper stickers that make the point. And I think to ordinary people, it has immediate appeal.”

    But what would it mean if corporations were denied freedom of speech, the justice asked rhetorically.

    …

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 19:25

  • As Physical Silver Demand Soars, Bullion Dealers Offer Huge Buy-Back Premiums
    As Physical Silver Demand Soars, Bullion Dealers Offer Huge Buy-Back Premiums

    Updated 2055ET with comments from SD Bullion President Dr. Tyler Wall.

    For those who have been keeping an eye on silver, things are getting a little tight.

    Earlier Wednesday we noted a report from Ronan Manly of BullionStar.com, who revealed that more than 50% of deliverable silver on COMEX is suddenly ‘not available.’ Manly brought up this Oct. 19 tweet from metals expert Nicky Shiels, who said of delegates in attendance at the annual LBMA (Gold) conference in Lisbon; “they are mildly bearish Gold for the year ahead ($1830 by 2023s conference) but super bullish Silver ($28.30!) as the focus was on physical tightness driven by unprecedented demand.“

    Second, the spot market for silver remains in backwardation – meaning that the spot price of silver is above the futures price, which indicates an extremely strong demand for physical metal right now. ..

    And as the chart below shows, while silver futures have gone nowhere in the last four months, the price of physical coins has been soaring…

    Demand has become so strong that, as the chart below shows, the extent of the physical silver percentage premium over spot is almost unprecedented…

    Source: https://twitter.com/jameshenryand/status/1585387645957705728

    The result? Bullion dealers are offering giant premiums over spot to buy silver.

    APMEX, for example, is offering $10 over spot per coin right now.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While SD Bullion is offering $10.50 and $11 over bid. Update: CEO Dr. Tyler Wall says that the physical silver market “is as tight as I’ve ever seen it,” adding that his company has been offering $11.00 over spot for US Mint Silver Eagles for over a week.

    More from Dr. Wall;

    Silver stackers we talk to on a regular basis seem to be getting tired of hearing about the market tightness without any movement in the bank spot price. However, obviously that could be about to change if the COMEX and LBMA vault drain continues for much longer. One of the individuals I speak to regularly who has first hand knowledge of a COMEX depository’s operation told me recently that they didn’t think there’s any unspoken silver left, just people haven’t figured it out yet. An interesting comment, given that there is supposedly 35 million ounces of registered silver left at the COMEX.

    Some silver bullion production is ordered out through March 2023 and nearly every silver round/coin is at least 4 weeks delayed from purchase, most 6-8 weeks. There already exists on the wholesale market what will be manifesting in retail trading across the space in the coming weeks: a complete uncoupling of price for live, deliverable Silver. You can already see that in the US Silver Mint Eagles where premiums are now nearly 100% of spot price. In the rare occurrence someone is quoting inventory that’s actually there, on a shelf and ready to ship that day, premium becomes almost irrelevant in this market. There’s virtually no price quoted that is too high with the benefit of 3 hours hindsight. You snooze, you lose. -Dr. Tyler Wall, SD Bullion, Inc.

    The big question, as always – where do we go from here?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 19:05

  • Learning All The Wrong Lessons From America’s Energy Crisis
    Learning All The Wrong Lessons From America’s Energy Crisis

    Authored by Jakob Puckett via RealClear Wire,

    Self-inflicted wounds create teachable moments, but the architects of America’s current energy crisis are learning all the wrong lessons.

    Skyrocketing energy costs are one of America’s harsh post-Covid realities. And with one in four American households struggling to pay for their energy needs before Covid, policymakers should have set their sights on making energy more affordable for more Americans.

    Instead, as Joseph Toomey points out in his new report RealClearEnergy report, Energy Inflation Was by Design, policymakers squeezed supply everywhere they could, so it would become impossible to meet demand.

    From the beginning, the Biden administration has prioritized restricting access to the fuels that power nearly 80% of America’s economy and roughly three-quarters of American homes. Revoking permits for the long-embattled Keystone XL Pipeline was one of President Biden’s first executive orders, making it harder and more dangerous to transport Canadian fossil fuels to American refineries. This decision was all the more hypocritical when, weeks later, President Biden gave his approval of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. 

    In a like manner, the Biden administration is helping speed up the closure of the refineries that turn oil into gasoline. Escalating biofuel mandates are signaling to refineries to close up shop, as blending levels are reaching unsustainably high levels. Moreover, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) revoking of biofuel waivers for small refineries will only cause more refining capacity to buckle under those mandates’ costly weight. Gasoline and diesel refining capacity has been declining for decades, and is in no position to reverse course. 

    The Biden administration is simultaneously cracking down on drilling for the fuels that power everyday life. One quarter of America’s oil and gas is produced from federal property by way of leasing drilling rights to companies. However, the Biden administration recently cut onshore drilling leases by 80%, as well as notably curtailing offshore drilling. For the leases that were not cut, the Interior Department significantly increased royalty fees, making federal lands a less attractive drilling option, as well as allowing lawsuits to delay several already-purchased leases based on environmentally and economically squishy climate change metrics.

    On private lands the situation is no different, as the EPA is attempting to regulate oil and gas drilling out of business. The EPA lacks the authority to ban fracking on private lands, but is considering using burdensome ozone standards to stifle drilling in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is America’s most productive oil and gas field, accounting for 40% of America’s oil production and 20% of its natural gas supply. Taking the end use of these products into consideration, the EPA’s rules could jeopardize 25% of the country’s gasoline supply. 

    The Biden administration’s more stringent power plant regulations would prove deleterious to grid stability, too. Several of the nation’s power grid operators have opposed the EPA’s proposed aggressive power plant regulations, as forcing reliable fossil fuel generation out of service invites risks to grid stability. In fact, grid operators have pushed for keeping soon-to-be-retired coal plants operating longer for this very reason. 

    Nor is the pressure resulting from a staunch campaign against fossil fuels limited to domestic policy. Rather than increasing American oil production, President Biden has, hat in hand, approached Venezuela and OPEC with the goal of boosting oil production. Despite the stated goal of curbing fossil fuel production being reducing CO2 emissions, these policies overlook the role that American-made fossil fuels have to play in reducing global CO2 emissions. American oil and gas has lower lifecycle emissions than top competitors, and boosting exports can enrich Americans while draining dictators’ war chests.

    In its latest move, the Biden administration is resorting again to draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, this time to its lowest level in 40 years, in a last-ditch effort to lower gasoline prices before the November election. Periodically releasing oil from the country’s strategic reserves to score political points is not an energy policy strategy, especially when that oil ends up in China. 

    The international embarrassment and domestic hardship resulting from the Biden administration’s decisions should be a clue to change course, but learning the right lesson is not on the syllabus for the policymakers responsible. As Toomey points out in his report, creating a hostile policy environment that leads to the ending of fossil fuels is the real motive behind the web of energy policies the Biden administration is spinning. 

    Indeed, Marlo Lewis also confirms all of this on RealClearEnergy: the disastrous outcomes of these rushed climate policies are a feature of the system, not a bug.

    Jakob Puckett is an energy analyst.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 18:45

  • Facebook Craters 20% To 6-Year-Low After Dismal Earnings, Massive CapEx Guidance, Revenue Warning
    Facebook Craters 20% To 6-Year-Low After Dismal Earnings, Massive CapEx Guidance, Revenue Warning

    Heading into today’s earning from Facebook, which still has the bizarro ticker META (Ok, Zuck, we got the joke, time to change the name and the ticker), the option-implied move was for a staggering 12% swing in the stock price as nobody had any idea what to expect: yes, the recent results from SNAP and GOOGL were ugly, but sentiment was so beaten down that it was unlikely Facebook could really surprise to the downside (and, boy, was sentiment wrong in retrospect).

    Well, moments ago the company reported earnings, and it appears that the options market was correct, because after first surging almost 10% higher, the stock has since tumbled a whopping 12% all in the span of a few seconds as traders digest what the world’s largest social network reported for Q3, which is the following:

    • EPS $1.64, missing the estimate of $1.89, down 49% from a year ago.

    • Revenue $27.71BN, beating the consensus estimate of $27.41BN, but down 4% from a year ago.

      • Advertising rev. $27.24 billion, beating estimates of $26.86 billion

      • Family of Apps revenue $27.43 billion, beating estimates of $27.07 billion

      • Reality Labs revenue $285 million, missing estimates of $406.3 million

      • Other revenue $192 million, in line with the est. $193.9 million

    Despite the revenue beat, this was the second straight quarter of revenue declines from the year earlier (after the first decline ever last quarter). As for Net Income, forgetaboutit…

    … As Bloomgerg notes, this is a company that got so used to growing with no end in sight, that they now have to adjust to a period of intense prioritization. Needless to say,  a mixed picture at best, especially since the number of total ad impressions rose by a higher than expected +17% (est. +11.8%) and yet the average price per ad tumbled -18%, much worse than the estimate -15.3%. In fact, ad revenue was so ugly, it dropped in every user geography.

    Looking at the number of users, we get more mixed results:

    • Facebook daily active users 1.98 billion, beating the est. 1.86 billion

    • Facebook monthly active users 2.96 billion, missing the est. 2.97 billion

    Some more headlines from the quarter:

    • Meta Sees Reality Labs Op Losses in 2023 Significantly Higher

    • Meta Making Changes Across Board to Operate More Efficiently

    • Meta Has Increased Scrutiny on All Areas of Operating Expenses

    • Meta Holding Some Teams Flat in Headcount, Shrinking Others

    • Meta: Beyond 2023 to Pace Reality Labs Investments

    • Meta: Boost in AI Capacity Driving Capex Growth in 2023

    But it was the company’s guidance that prompted the after hours reversal from high to low, as the company now sees:

    • Revenue of $30 billion to $32.5 billion, on the weak side of the estimate $32.2 billion

    And while FB trimmed its expense forecast for full year 2022 to $85 billion-$87 billion, from $85 billion-$88 billion (est. 85.11BN), it was the company 2023 full year forecast that was ugly, as a result of far more spending than previously expected:

    • Sees total expenses $96 billion to $101 billion, estimate $93.2 billion

    • Sees capital expenditure $34 billion to $39 billion, estimate $28.99 billion

    Another problem: the metaverse may be the next sliced bread, but it costs a lot of money to convince the world, and even more cash burn, to wit:

    “We do anticipate that Reality Labs operating losses in 2023 will grow significantly year-over-year. Beyond 2023, we expect to pace Reality Labs investments such that we can achieve our goal of growing overall company operating income in the long run.”

    Reality Labs’ revenues are tumbling and losses are soaring…

    Finally, what assured that META stock would crater is the warning from CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who admitted that “we face near-term challenges on revenue.”

    While he tried to walk it back by promising that “the fundamentals are there for a return to stronger revenue growth” and that he is “approaching 2023 with a focus on prioritization and efficiency that will help us navigate the current environment and emerge an even stronger company” all investors saw was “revenue challenges” and hammered the stock accordingly.

    It gets worse: the company said that FX would be a ~7% headwind to Y/Y total revenue growth in 4Q.

    Amazingly, despite the ugly results, Meta said it sees headcount end 2023 about in-Line With 3Q 2022. Don’t worry, after Zuck sees the crash in the stock he will change his mind.

     Not even extended outlook commentary from the CFO did anything to stop the bleeding: “To provide some context on the approach we are taking towards setting our 2023 budget, we are making significant changes across the board to operate more efficiently. We are holding some teams flat in terms of headcount, shrinking others and investing headcount growth only in our highest priorities. As a result, we expect headcount at the end of 2023 will be approximately in-line with third quarter 2022 levels.”

    Bottom line: what little good news there is, is that Facebook is still growing on both a DAU…

    … and MAU basis.

    To some, such as Bloomberg Intel’s Singh, this was enough: “If you look at the numbers, it’s a beat. Look at the impressions growth — that’s pretty impressive. That goes to show that people are spending time on Facebook properties because that is how you are driving those impressions.”

    As Zuckerberg has told his employees, once you have the attention, you can make money off of that. And that’s what’s going to fund this metaverse transition.

    The bad news is that so far the transition is going from bad to worse, with the company plowing ever more dollars into its new strategic vision, and has nothing to show for it.

    Putting the above together, here are the five main lessons from Bloomberg:

    • Meta is in a revenue slump for the long haul. The company sees $30 billion to $32.5 billion for the holiday quarter, missing the midpoint of consensus.
    • Expenses for 2023 are higher than expected, at $96 billion to $101 billion, as Zuckerberg pursues that metaverse vision.
    • Reality Labs and other metaverse initiatives are going to keep losing money. Operating loss is $3.67 billion.
    • Earnings also missed estimates, at $1.64 per share compared to the $1.89 per share estimate.
    • Zuckerberg says “prioritization and efficiency” are the focus for 2023. Some teams will be downsized, only priority teams get to grow headcount.

    Or rather it has a crashing stock price to show: remember what we said that META options were pricing in a 13% swing after earnings? Well, they got just that- first to the upside, and then down…

    … with the stock plunging 70% from its recent highs, and tumbling to a fresh 2016 low of $114…

    … and still dropping, now down more than 19% on the day, and 14.5% after hours, the second biggest one-day drop in Facebook history.

    And while it’s clear why anyone who bought the stock in the past year is beating themselves on the head, nobody is as bad an investor here as Facebook itself: over the past 12 months, META has repurchased $42BN of stock at an average price of roughly $300. It is now trading at $112.

    The company’s full earnings presentation is below.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 18:30

  • Pimco, Apollo To Buy Credit Suisse Securitized Products Unit
    Pimco, Apollo To Buy Credit Suisse Securitized Products Unit

    Amid ebbing and flowing speculation that Credit Suisse is next Lehman – which may be a stretch but the math that the 2nd largest Swiss bank desperately needs billions in fresh capital is all too real – some were wondering who is the buyer that would get the crown jewels of the CS empire: its securitized products group.

    Moments ago, the WSJ delivered the answer: Credit Suisse is nearing a deal to sell the securitized-products group to financial giants Apollo Global and PIMCO, as part of the bank’s retreat from Wall Street.

    The Swiss bank is set to give details of the sale, and other measures for a planned strategy change, on Thursday the Journal reports.

    Two bidding groups emerged as the favorites for the business, The Wall Street Journal earlier reported. One consortium included Pimco, a big bond manager, and Apollo, a large alternative asset manager. It beat out a second group comprised of Centerbridge Partners and Martello Re Ltd., a life and reinsurance company, according to some of the people familiar with the effort.

    The securitized-products group, which underwrites financing and packages up mortgage bonds and other securities for resale, has long been rumored to be on the selling block. It generated high returns but Credit Suisse executives said in July it wasn’t a good fit with its envisioned future shape. Since then, as CS entered a solvency and liquidity spiral which pushed its CDS to record wides, the company had no choice but to liquidate the unit to the most generous buyer.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 18:25

  • RNC Files 73 Election Integrity Lawsuits Ahead Of 2022 Midterms
    RNC Files 73 Election Integrity Lawsuits Ahead Of 2022 Midterms

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Republican National Committee (RNC) has filed 73 lawsuits on election issues during the 2022 midterm election cycle, according to its chair.

    RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel speaks during a press conference at the Republican National Committee headquarters in Washington on Nov. 9, 2020. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

    RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel confirmed that the committee filed its 73rd lawsuit of 2022 last week, against officials in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

    “The RNC has filed a new lawsuit against Kalamazoo, MI. Michiganders deserve election transparency, and we are going to court to get it. This is our 73rd case of election integrity litigation this cycle with more to come,” she wrote on Twitter.

    Some advocacy groups hailed the bevy of legal challenges.

    “After the shortcomings of the last election, a proactive and pre-emptive legal strategy is critical to the election integrity voters deserve in 2022, 2024, and beyond,” Michael Bars, executive director of the Election Transparency Initiative, told Fox News on Oct. 24, adding that there have been “significant strides” to try to bolster voters’ trust in the U.S. election system after allegations of fraud in 2020.

    The lawsuits come after widespread complaints about the security of the 2020 election in which former President Donald Trump and his allies said there was significant fraud in key battleground states.

    The lawsuits are part of a “multimillion-dollar investment into building an election integrity operations infrastructure that draws on its legal, political, data and communications resources,” RNC spokesperson Gates McGavick told the outlet. It reported that the six dozen lawsuits were filed in 20 states.

    In recent days, the RNC has had some success in court. A New York judge recently struck down a law that would have added noncitizens to voter rolls.

    A court in Michigan also found that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, updated an election manual to impose new restrictions on poll observers and challengers without going through the correct rulemaking process. Court of Claims Judge Brock Swartzle ruled that Benson’s office must either remove a May manual or amend specific sections that he said violate state and federal law.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 18:05

  • US Gives Ukraine Most Advanced Air Defense System To Date
    US Gives Ukraine Most Advanced Air Defense System To Date

    The United States has given Ukraine the most advanced anti-air defense systems to date, after President Biden in a phone call with Ukraine’s Volodymy Zelensky vowed to expedite shipments of NASAMS. Already Ukraine has been receiving the HIMARS – a 1990’s era light multiple rocket launcher, but Kiev has repeatedly asked for more sophisticated anti-air missiles, including from Israel.

    Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes has confirmed in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that it delivered two of the NASAMS systems to the US government this month, which were subsequently transferred and are being set up for use by Ukrainian forces. 

    “We did just deliver two NASAMS systems… We delivered two of them to the government a couple of weeks ago. They’re being installed in Ukraine [imminently],” Hayes said.

    Via The Drive/US Army

    “It is a short-range air defense system, and it can fire [an AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile] and it could knock down everything in the sky from drones to ballistic missiles to fighter jets,” the Raytheon CEO detailed. 

    The surface-to-air system is produced by Raytheon in partnership with Norwegian defense company Kongsberg, and is considered a mid-range system, but can be outfitted with longer range missiles. 

    “We’re also seeing significant global demand for advanced air defense systems, especially in Eastern Europe, as the Russians and Ukraine conflict unfortunately continues,” Hayes added in the CNBC interview. 

    The NASAMS is used by the military to protect federal buildings and the White House in Washington D.C. from any inbound aerial threats, and is capable of intercepting even very low flying projectiles. The first foreign country to purchase the sophisticated system was Qatar in 2019. 

    Ukraine said that when it puts the NASAMS into operation, this will mark a “new era of air defense” for the country. President Zelensky told a summit of Group of Seven leaders last week, “When Ukraine receives a sufficient quantity of modern and effective air defence systems, the key element of Russia’s terror — rocket strikes — will cease to work.”

    Each unit costs $23 million according to the US Department of Defense. “Systems will be provided as fast as we can physically get them there,” Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said two weeks ago. “We’re going to do everything we can, as fast as we can, to help the Ukrainian forces get the capability they need to protect the Ukrainian people.” This was in reference to Russia having stepped up the intensity of its aerial attacks, especially targeting and degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 17:45

  • If You Liked Big Brother, Meet Google's Big MUM
    If You Liked Big Brother, Meet Google’s Big MUM

    Authored by Daniel Greenfield via The Gatestone Institute,

    Forget Big Brother, Big MUM is Google’s new tool for suppressing conservatives…

    MUM or Multitask Unified Model was hyped last year as the company’s new machine learning algorithm. MUM had been initially described as an innovative way to allow Google’s dying search service to answer natural language questions by drawing on multiple sources.

    While MUM’s applications initially appeared to be apolitical, that quickly changed.

    Google first unleashed MUM to fight what it considered COVID “misinformation” by making sure that everyone saw “high quality and timely information from trusted health authorities like the World Health Organization”. By reducing the number of sources to only those that agree with its agenda, Google is able to deliver fast results while getting rid of different points of view.

    A Forbes article described how MUM would “check information across multiple reliable sources” to allow “the system to come to a general consensus”. Google had once built its search around the vast diversity of a bygone internet, but it has spent the last decade draining the diversity and depth of the pool and replacing it with the shallow manufactured consensus of its agenda.

    Google long ago ceased being a way to find different answers and its search results are deliberately repetitive. Search is an illusion. The user thinks that he’s browsing the internet when he’s actually spinning his wheels in Google’s walled garden. This is most obvious in shopping and in politics: two areas where Google has strong interests and tries to manipulate users into believing that they are exploring options when they’re being hand fed variations on a theme.

    Or as Pandu Nayak, VP of search at Google, wrote in a recent post, “By using our latest AI model, Multitask Unified Model (MUM), our systems can now understand the notion of consensus, which is when multiple high-quality sources on the web all agree on the same fact.”

    The last thing the world needs is another centralized computer system enforcing a consensus.

    Google disagrees with many of its users about what “reliable sources” or “high-quality sources” entail. MUM helps the Big Tech search monopoly manufacture a consensus, on what it claims is a universal fact, and to promote snippets on its own site that promote that consensus.

    The monopoly doesn’t see its search service as a way to rank sites. The Big Tech monopoly, like its counterparts, doesn’t want users actually leaving its sites, and wants to force a “consensus” answer on them in its search engine. MUM is another tool for keeping users on its digital plantation. The underlying notion behind MUM is a continuing redefinition of search, not as browsing an array of sources, but as a way of delivering a single instantaneous answer.

    Googlers have long been obsessed with the idea of replicating Star Trek’s fictional computer which would offer the answer to any question in a robotic female voice.

    MUM is the next step in this Big Sister quest.

    “The Star Trek computer is not just a metaphor that we use to explain to others what we’re building. It is the ideal that we’re aiming to build—the ideal version done realistically,” Amit Singhal, then the head of Google’s search rankings team, boasted.

    Singhal was later forced to leave the company over sexual harassment allegations.

    “It was the perfect search engine,” he gushed about the Star Trek computer. “You could ask it a question and it would tell you exactly the right answer, one right answer—and sometimes it would tell you things you needed to know in advance, before you could ask it.”

    In 2022, Google’s search is hopelessly broken because the company no longer has any interest in providing the search service that made it a monopoly, giving a ranked list of diverse results, but wants everyone to speak into their phones and receive a single answer. The consensus.

    Google’s snippets and knowledge panels displace links to actual sites and provide what the monopoly claims is the definitive answer. Its search assistant is similarly set up to provide a single answer. Google doesn’t want you to compare answers, but to listen to MUM.

    And sometimes Google wants to give you the information before you ask it.

    If you own an advanced Android phone, you may find that Google Assistant will interrupt conversations to offer its own “insights”.

    Google is also pursuing “prebunking” of what it considers “misinformation” with preemptive propaganda campaigns.

    Jigsaw, the company’s most explicitly political arm, is researching what it calls “prebunking” or attacking views it opposes before they can even gain traction. Prebunking is currently being experimentally tested by Google’s Jigsaw to fight “misinformation” in Poland and other Eastern European countries against Ukrainian migrants. This is only a test and Jigsaw expects there to be much wider application for the information techniques that its “researchers” are developing.

    Google’s YouTube already has a broad set of bans covering everything from questioning global warming, contradicting medical experts, and debating 2020 election results. These are a window into the company’s political agendas and how it seeks to enforce political conformity.

    While it seeks to narrow the sphere of acceptable information in its platforms, Google is working with the leftist Poynter Institute, one of the most notoriously biased fact check spammers, to develop “media literacy.”. The company claims to have spent $75 million on efforts to fight “misinformation.” And who determines what misinformation is? He who controls the algorithms.

    As the midterm elections approach, YouTube spokeswoman Ivy Choi, promised that the video site’s recommendations are “continuously and prominently surfacing midterms-related content from authoritative news sources and limiting the spread of harmful midterms-related misinformation.” The technical term for this is mass propaganda. That’s what Big Tech does.

    The internet was revolutionary because it upended the central systems of mass propaganda which allowed a government and a handful of men to enforce their consensus on a helpless public through the mass media of newspapers, radio stations, movie theaters and television sets. Big Tech’s Web 2.0 killed the revolution and restored the oligarchy. Its monopolists see the internet as only a faster way to deliver more immersive propaganda to the masses.

    The Big Tech monopolies took off by taming the web, shrinking its vast promise and diversity of content into smaller walled gardens that they could dominate and monetize. Facebook inhaled most of the social interactions on the internet and locked it up in its private platform. Google is determined to do the same thing to the bewildering parade of ideas of the entire internet.

    When Google’s senior VP Prabhakar Raghavan first introduced MUM, he suggested that the goal was to “develop not only a better understanding of information on the Web, but a better understanding of the world.” What happens on the internet doesn’t stay on the internet.

    Conservatives are one of the cultural barriers because their existence is a marked reminder that Big Tech does not control everything. While its executives and employees are socially insulated wokes operating in major urban centers, they manage systems that extend around the country and the world. When they encounter different points of view, they seek to wipe them out.

    MUM is yet another tool for enforcing a totalitarian conformity on the diversity of the internet.

    Google doesn’t want you to think differently or to think for yourself. What it wants users to do is to shut up and listen to Big MUM.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 17:25

  • Tesla Under Criminal Investigation For Claims That Its Cars Can Drive Themselves
    Tesla Under Criminal Investigation For Claims That Its Cars Can Drive Themselves

    While it has been widely known that Tesla was facing scrutiny by the NHTSA regarding its Autopilot and Full Self Driving features, it is now being reported that other Federal agencies are looking into the automaker for the same issues.

    Namely, the Department of Justice.

    It broke on Wednesday that Tesla is under criminal investigation “over claims that the company’s electric vehicles can drive themselves”, according to an exclusive by Reuters. 

    The DOJ reportedly launched an investigation into the company last year after more than a dozen crashes took place involving Autopilot, the report says. 

    According to Reuters, the DOJ investigation “potentially represents a more serious level of scrutiny because of the possibility of criminal charges against the company or individual executives, the people familiar with the inquiry said.”

    Washington and San Francisco DOJ prosecutors are looking at whether or not the company misled consumers with its claims of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving’s capabilities. All options are still on the table with regard to the investigation, Reuters noted: “Officials conducting their inquiry could ultimately pursue criminal charges, seek civil sanctions or close the probe without taking any action, they said.”

    And the DOJ investigation in Autopilot appears to be yielding to additional DOJ investigations into the company, the report says:

    The Justice Department’s Autopilot probe is far from recommending any action partly because it is competing with two other DOJ investigations involving Tesla, one of the sources said. Investigators still have much work to do and no decision on charges is imminent, this source said.

    The investigation may need “smoking gun” style evidence to proceed, one U.S. attorney told Reuters:

    Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney in Detroit who prosecuted automotive companies and employees in fraud cases and is not involved in the current probe, said investigators likely would need to uncover evidence such as emails or other internal communications showing that Tesla and Musk made misleading statements about Autopilot’s capabilities on purpose.

    Recall, about a week ago we wrote that there had been yet another grim development involving Tesla’s Autopilot and motorcycles – a disturbing trend we first started pointing out months ago when we talked about two accidents that occurred this summer. 

    Driver crash assist data that automakers are forced to report in such incidents was made available about a week ago and confirmed that Autopilot was engaged during a third incident. 

    The incident involved Ingrid Eva Noon, the report says, who was riding her motorcycle in Palm Beach County, Florida at 2:11 a.m. on August 26.

    An impaired driver who had Tesla’s Autopilot engaged hit the back of the motorcycle, throwing her “onto the Tesla’s windshield and killing her”, according to the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s office.

    Motorcycle advocates have claimed that “recent crashes suggest the Tesla system is insufficient”, according to the CNN report. They are concerned that “the software fails to see motorcycles and lulls Tesla drivers into a sense of complacency and inattentiveness” and that “the government’s vehicle safety regulations do not adequately protect motorcycle riders”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/26/2022 – 17:05

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