Dec 28

Today’s News 28th December 2023

  • Escobar: Russia-China Are On A Roll
    Escobar: Russia-China Are On A Roll

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    While the dogs of war bark, lie and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on…

    2023 may be defined for posterity as The Year of the Russia-China Strategic Partnership. This wonder of wonders could easily sway under a groove by – who else – Stevie Wonder: “Here I am baby/ signed, sealed, delivered, I’m yours.”

    In the first 11 months of 2023, trade between Russia and China exceeded $200 billion; they did not expect to achieve that until 2024.

    Now surely that’s One Partnership Under a Groove. Once again signed, sealed and delivered during the visit of a large delegation to Beijing last week, led by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and revisited and upgraded the whole spectrum of the comprehensive partnership/strategic cooperation, complete with an array of new, major joint projects.

    Simultaneously, on the Great Game 2.0 front, everything that need to be reaffirmed was touched by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s detailed interview to Dimitri Simes on his Great Game show.

    Add to it the carefully structured breakdown written by head of the SVR Sergey Naryshkin, defining 2024 as “the year of geopolitical awakening”, and coming up with arguably the key formulation following the upcoming, cosmic NATO humiliation in the steppes of Donbass: “In 2024, the Arab world will remain the main space in the struggle for the establishment of a new order.”

    Confronted with such detailed geopolitical fine-tuning, it’s no wonder the imperial reaction was apoplexy – revealed epidermically in long, tortuous “analyses” trying to explain why President Putin turned out to be the “geopolitical victor” of 2023, seducing vast swathes of the Arab world and the Global South, solidifying BRICS side by side with China, and propelling the EU further into a black void of its own – and the Hegemon’s – making.

    Putin even allowed himself, half in jest, to offer Russian support for the potential “re-annexation” of country 404 border regions once annexed by Stalin, eventually to be returned to former owners Poland, Hungary & Romania. He added that he is 100% certain this is what residents of those still Ukrainian borders want.

    Were that to happen, we would have Transcarpathia back to Hungary; Galicia and Volyn back to Poland; and Bukovina back to Romania. Can you feel the house already rocking to the break of dawn in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest?

    Then there’s the possibility of the Hegemon ordering NATO’s junior punks to harass Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea and “isolate” St. Petersburg. It goes without saying that the Russian response would be to just take out Command & Control centers (hacking might be enough); burn electronics across the spectrum; and blockade the Baltic at the entrance by running a “Freedom of Navigation” exercise so everyone becomes familiar with the new groove.

    That China-Russian Far East symbiosis

    One of the most impressive features of the expanded Russia-China partnership is what is being planned for the Chinese northeastern province of Heilongjiang.

    The idea is to turn it into an economic, scientific development and national defense mega-hub, centered on the provincial capital Harbin, complete with a new, sprawling Special Economic Zone (SEZ).

    The key vector is that this mega-hub would also coordinate the development of the immense Russian Far East. This was discussed in detail at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok last September.

    In a unique, startling arrangement, the Chinese may be allowed to manage selected latitudes of the Russian Far East for the next 100 years.

    As Hong Kong-based analyst Thomas Polin detailed, Beijing is budgeting no less than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) for the whole thing. Half of it would be absorbed by Harbin. The blueprint will reach the National People’s Congress next March, and is expected to be approved. It has already been approved by the lower house of the Duma in Moscow.

    The ramifications are mind-boggling. We would have Harbin elevated to the status of direct-administered city, just like Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. And most of all a Sino-Russian Management Committee will be established in Harbin to oversee the whole project.

    Top flight Chinese universities – including Peking University – would transfer their main campuses to Harbin. The universities of National Defense and National Defense Technology would merge with Harbin Engineering University to form a new entity focused on defense industries. High-tech research institutes and companies in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen would also move to Harbin.

    The People’s Bank of China would establish its HQ for northern China in Harbin, complete with markets trading stocks and commodities futures.

    Residents of Heilongjiang would be allowed to travel back and forth to designated Russian Far East regions without a visa. The new Heilongjiang SEZ would have its own customs area and no import taxes.

    That’s the same spirit driving BRI connectivity corridors and the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). The underlying rationale is wider Eurasia integration.

    At the recent Astana Club meeting in Kazakhstan, researcher Damjan Krnjevic-Miskovic, Director of Policy Research at the ADA University in Baku, gave an excellent presentation on connectivity corridors.

    He referred for instance to the C5+1 (five Central Asian “stans” plus China) meeting three months ago in Dushanbe joined by Azerbaijan’s president Aliyev: that translates as Central Asia-Caucasus integration.

    Miskovic is paying due attention to everything that is evolving in what he defines, correctly, as “the Silk Road region” – interlinking the Euro-Atlantic with Asia-Pacific and interconnecting West Asia, South Asia and wider Eurasia.

    Strategically, of course, that’s the “geopolitical hinge where NATO meets the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and where the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connects with Turkiye and the territory of the EU.” In practical terms, Russia-China know exactly what needs to be done to propel economic connectivity and “synergistic relationships” all across this vast spectrum.

    The War of Economic Corridors heats up

    The fragmentation of the global economy is already polarizing the expanding BRICS 10 (starting on January 1st, under the Russian presidency, and without flirting-with-dollarization Argentina) and the shrinking G7.

    Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko – a key Asia hand -, talking to TASS, once again reaffirmed that the key drive for the Greater Eurasia Partnership (official Russian policy) is to connect the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) with BRI.

    As Russia develops a carefully calibrated balance between China and India, the same drive applies to developing the INSTC, where Russia-Iran-India are the main partners, and Azerbaijan is also bound to become a crucial player.

    Add to it vastly improved Russian ties with North Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan (a BRI and SCO member) and ASEAN (except Westernized Singapore).

    BRI, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty, is on a roll. I’ve just been to Moscow, Astana and Almaty for three weeks, and it was possible to confirm with several sources that trains in all connectivity corridors are packed to the hilt; via the Trans-Siberian; via Astana all the way to Minsk; and via Almaty to Uzbekistan.

    Russian International Affairs Council Program Manager Yulia Melnikova adds that “Moscow can and should integrate more actively into transit operations along the China – Mongolia – Russia route” and accelerate the harmonization of standards between the EAEU and China. Not to mention invest further in Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic.

    Enter President Putin, at a Russian Railways meeting, unveiling an ambitious, massive 10-year infrastructure expansion plan encompassing new railways and improved connectivity with Asia – from the Pacific to the Arctic.

    The Russian economy has definitely pivoted to Asia, responsible for 70% of trade turnover amid the Western sanctions dementia.

    So what’s on the menu ahead is everything from modernization of the Trans-Siberian and establishing a major logistical hub in the Urals and Siberia to improving port infrastructure in the Azov, Black, and Caspian Seas and faster INSTC cargo transit between Murmansk and Mumbai.

    Putin, once again, almost as an afterthought, recently remarked that trade through the Suez Canal cannot be considered effective anymore, compared to Russia’s Northern Sea Route. With a single, sharp geopolitical move, Yemen’s Ansarullah has made it graphic – for everyone to see.

    Russian development of the Northern Sea Route happens to run in total synergy with the Chinese drive to develop the Arctic leg of BRI. On the oil front, Russian shipments to China via its Arctic coast takes only 35 days: 10 days less than via Suez.

    Danila Krylov, researcher with the Department of the Middle East and Post-Soviet Asia at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, offers a straightforward insight:

    “I view the fact that the Americans are getting involved in Yemen as part of a great game [scenario]; there is more to it than just a desire to punish the Houthis or Iran, as it is more likely driven by a desire to prevent the monopolization of the market and hinder Chinese export deliveries to Europe. The Americans need an operational Suez Canal and a corridor between India and Europe, while the Chinese don’t want it because these are two direct competitors.”

    It’s not that the Chinese don’t want it: with the Northern Sea Route up and running, they don’t need it.

    Now freeze!

    In sum: in the ongoing, ever more fractious War of Economic Corridors, the initiative is with Russia-China.

    In desperation, and no more than an option-deprived, headless chicken victim in the War of Economic Corridors, the Hegemon’s EU vassals are resorting to twisting the Follow the Money playbook.

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has defined the freezing of Russian assets – not only private, but also state-owned – by the EU as pure theft. Now Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is making it very clear that Moscow will react symmetrically to the possible use of income from these frozen Russian assets.

    Paraphrasing Lavrov: you confiscate, we confiscate. We all confiscate.

    The repercussions will be cataclysmic – for the Hegemon. No Global South nation, outside of NATOstan, will be “encouraged” to park its foreign currency/reserves in the West. That may lead, in a flash, to the whole Global South ditching the U.S.-led international financial system and joining a Russia-China-led alternative.

    The peer-competitor Russia-China strategic partnership is already directly challenging the “rules-based international order” on all fronts – improving their historical spheres of influence while actively developing vast, interconnected connectivity corridors bypassing said “order”. That precludes, as much as possible, direct Hot War with the Hegemon.

    Or to put it on Silk Road terms: while the dogs of war bark, lie and steal, the Russia-China caravan strolls on.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 23:55

  • "This Might Be The Biggest Lie Of The Year From Biden Regime"
    “This Might Be The Biggest Lie Of The Year From Biden Regime”

    Had the Biden administration prioritized southern border security, significant efforts to resolve the crisis would likely have been completed by now instead of peddling blatant lies and half-truths to deflect the blame for their disastrous open border policies that have flooded the nation with millions of illegals (and individuals on the FBI’s terror watch list) ahead the 2024 presidential election cycle. 

    A large chunk of corporate progressive media outlets have been spoonfed propaganda from the White House this year to distract Americans with southern border misinformation. 

    The clearest misinformation campaign from the White House was in May, when Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorka declared: “I want to be very clear, our borders are not open.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “This might be the biggest lie of the year from the Biden regime,” X user Libs of TikTok wrote in a post. 

    Responding to Libs of TikTok’s post, X user RedWave Press said:

    “This is a massive lie. The southern border is wide open and the Biden administration is funding the whole thing. Our country is going to be run into the ground by illegal immigrants if something doesn’t change.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    But the border lies don’t stop with Mayorka. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has been on the frontlines of spreading misinformation, saying President Biden has done “everything that he can” to secure the border. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “It’s just a blind spot for this entire White House, this entire administration, that would really prefer that they didn’t have to deal with any of the ramifications of the policy choices that they’ve made when it comes to the border and that Alexander Mayorkas has been so terrible at and actually implementing when it comes to the DHS policy involved,” Ben Domenech, the publisher and co-founder of The Federalist, recently told Fox Business’ Ashley Webster. 

    Endless border misinformation injected into corporate media by the White House has been on full display in recent days when the US Customs and Border Protection released data indicating a quarter of a million migrant encounters at the southern border in November – the busiest November on record. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Furthermore, the new website Muckraker revealed a treasure trove of “mass migration blueprints,” handed out by NGOs, or non-governmental organizations, across South and Central America to illegals with details about their route to the US. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “A lot of NGOs are helping Biden open the border to unlimited illegal crossing. But none of this could happen without the president’s approval,” Byron York, the chief political correspondent at the Washington Examiner, said last week. 

    The breaking point for law-abiding and tax-paying Americans has arrived. They’re tired of being lied to by radicals in the White House and corporate media. That’s why Biden’s polling data has plunged to record lows, and trust in media has imploded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 23:30

  • A Shrunken Arsenal: The Alarming Decline Of U.S. Munitions
    A Shrunken Arsenal: The Alarming Decline Of U.S. Munitions

    Authored by Joe Buccino via RealClear Wire,

    As fighting rages in the Middle East and Europe and China looms as a threat, America’s dwindling arsenal of high-end munitions emerges as an alarming crisis. The United States, once a fortress of military might, now faces the prospect of a munitions deficit in an era brimming with uncertainties. This desperate situation demands the development of a national critical munitions stockpile.

    European weapons makers are overwhelmed and struggling to meet Ukraine’s consumption of more than 6,000 artillery rounds each day during peak counteroffensive fighting. Ukraine’s ability to stave off defeat and defend itself against the Russian invasion largely depends on an uninterrupted supply of these rounds. Ukrainian forces are conserving their ammunition supply, which might lead to postponements in upcoming counterattacks. Over the coming months, this shortage of ammunition could compel Ukrainian military units to make difficult choices regarding the allocation of resources across various frontlines, focusing on areas where maintaining control is most crucial and potentially allowing minor territorial losses in less critical sectors.

    To supplement Ukraine’s massive ammunition requirements, DoD pulls munitions from its own war reserve stocks. Further compounding the matter: In an attempt to extract stricter immigration policies, House Republicans are blocking a congressional aid package for Ukraine.

    Last year, to help meet the demand for Ukrainian munitions, the Pentagon tapped into a stockpile of American 155mm rounds in Israel, sending hundreds of thousands to Ukraine. These rounds, stored for decades in Israeli bunkers, are to provide an Israeli qualitative military edge, a pillar of American policy in the Middle East. Now Israel needs them back to target Hamas’s command cells in its war in Gaza. The U.S. is supporting two countries, both of which use enormous amounts of 155-millimeter artillery and other ammunition in wars that may stretch on for many months. Running out of ideas, last month the Pentagon established a team to examine American inventories to identify ammunition for Israel. Earlier this month, Senator Deb Fischer, a senior Senate Armed Services Committee member, remarked that the U.S. must expand its munitions production capability.

    Once a conflict begins it can lead to extraordinarily high munitions consumption. The fighting in Ukraine should serve as a warning regarding production of munitions the U.S. would need in a conflict with China over Taiwan. The U.S. must resolve the extensive issues within its munitions manufacturing processes ahead of a conflict with China.

    American forces require an enormous volume of critical munitions to fight against a technologically advanced military force. This ammo is also necessary to equip partner forces in Asia, such as Australia, with the long-range anti-ship munitions needed to defeat the Chinese flotilla or prevent it from ever embarking. The stockpile also ensures that American industrial output is sustained in times of crisis and preserves the United States’ global military edge.

    The U.S. also provides Taiwan with munitions sufficient to blunt an initial Chinese blow. This strategy – codified by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act – involves ensuring Taiwan has sufficient defense capabilities against a Chinese attack. The U.S. arms Taiwan only to a level that does not disrupt the diplomatic equilibrium between Washington and Beijing. But, there is growing concern in the Pentagon and the Indo-Pacific that Taiwan does not have enough of the high-tech munitions to hold off a PRC attack. Here again, the shrinking U.S. munitions reserve represents a risk.

    In a U.S. fight with China, American forces will likely burn through munitions stocks within three weeks. Even with a surge of the U.S. industrial base, replenishing stocks will take more than six months. In the interim, the U.S. will be without sufficient bombs and bullets for its cutting-edge systems, such as fifth-generation fighter jets and High Mobility Rocket Launcher Systems, and anti-air missiles needed to protect our nuclear aircraft carriers and bases in the Pacific.

    Right now, the warning indicators are blinking red. The massive need for ammunition in such conflicts highlights weaknesses in the American defense industry, which no longer produces munitions at the rate it did decades ago. The post-Cold War defense budget reductions led to a swift merger of the defense sector, which saw a drop from fifty-one major defense providers in the early 1990s to five by the end of that decade. This consolidation led to a tightened capacity.

    To arm our allies and partners and our own forces to deter and, if necessary, fight a major theater war, the United States requires a critical munitions stockpile. This reserve will enable the Department of Defense to restore essential munitions stocks vital for maintaining air dominance, defending against air and missile threats, and targeting hard and deeply buried objectives.

    The PROCURE Act, introduced by a bipartisan group of senators in the previous Congress, would go a long way toward building this stockpile. The legislation aims to establish a $500 million per year revolving fund in the Treasury Department for the Pentagon to procure critical munitions. This fund would allow the Defense Department to swiftly replenish high-demand munitions supplied to partner countries in future conflicts, using profits from the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program. The act is designed to support democratic nations and protect American interests overseas, allowing the Pentagon to continuously order critical munitions. The Senate Armed Services Committee should push to get the PROCURE act passed into law.

    In addition, we must expand the National Defense Stockpile, a largely obscure reserve of raw material based in Fort Belvoir, Virginia, with operations throughout the United States. The National Defense Stockpile holds an emergency supply of 50 critical minerals. Many of these minerals, such as aluminum, titanium, and magnesium, are used in the production of munitions. The value of materials in the U.S. National Defense Stockpile has drastically decreased from $42 billion in 1952 to less than $1 billion today.  America’s mineral reserves are significantly lower than China’s, with the National Defense Stockpile maintaining only 300 metric tons of cobalt compared to China’s 7,000 metric tons. Congress must expand the National Defense Stockpile to support a potential major theater war.

    Our munitions stockpiles and production capacity are not just inadequate; they are a glaring vulnerability in our national defense strategy. We must act with resolve and urgency to revitalize our defense industrial base and expand our reservoir of munition-production minerals. Nothing less than our national interests and global stability is at stake.

    Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army Colonel who serves as a Senior Research Analyst for the Defense Innovation Board. He served as the communications director for U.S. Central Command from April 2021 to July 2023.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 23:05

  • Visualizing The Global Distribution Of Wealth, By Region
    Visualizing The Global Distribution Of Wealth, By Region

    The distribution of wealth provides insight into a region’s stage of economic maturity.

    As economies grow, they are more likely to have a higher share of adults with greater wealth. Naturally, incomes increase as corporate profitability flourishes, shifting the distribution of earnings.

    Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Dorothy Neufeld created the following graphic, based on data from UBS, to show the share of adults across global regions by their wealth range.

    Global Wealth Distribution in 2023

    Here’s how patterns of wealth compare around the world:

    North America and Europe, which have advanced economies, represent the largest share of people in the “over $1 million” range.

    China, which is transitioning to a more service-oriented economy, accounts for a large chunk of people within the $10K to $1 million range.

    Emerging markets like India account for larger shares of the bottom two wealth ranges.

    Overall, inequality within countries and between countries has increased since the 1980s. Yet global median wealth has increased fivefold since 2000, driven by the economic expansion of China lifting the global median level.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 22:40

  • New California Law Requires Stores To Carry "Gender-Neutral" Toys
    New California Law Requires Stores To Carry “Gender-Neutral” Toys

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There are a number of new laws that will kick in in 2024, but one of the most interesting fights are likely to over the new California law requiring stores with more than 500 employees to carry “gender-neutral” toys or face state fines.

    The law, signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021, is likely to trigger free speech challenges.

    The law covers childcare items, which is defined as “any product designed or intended by the manufacturer to facilitate sleep, relaxation, or the feeding of children, or to help children with sucking or teething.”

    The requirement of a gender-neutral section could be opposed by businesses on religious or other grounds. Notably, this applies to relatively large businesses. In the past, companies like Target have been boycotted for selling “tuck-friendly” items opposed by some consumers. While there is likely to be a backlash, these companies can argue that they are merely following the law rather than pursuing woke corporate policies.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The law could return courts to defining the free speech rights of corporations and the question of compelled speech.

    It is an interesting variation on the case of the recent 303 Creative ruling of the Supreme Court, which is discussed in my recent law review publication as well as my forthcoming book.

    In that case, the Court ruled in favor of a website designer who refused to work on same-sex marriage projects. That case, however, involved products made by the designer with “expressive content.” This is requiring the selling of products made by others.

    In 2010, in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the Court held in favor of a company in striking down political campaign limits as a denial of corporate free speech rights.

    In 2014, in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, the Court ruled in favor of a privately-held, for-profit corporation that refused to cover contraceptive services under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act of 1993.

    This case presents a different but arguably analogous issue of corporate free speech. A major element for challengers is to find an ideal plaintiff with long-standing religious objections to such gender neutral products to make the strongest case for government-compelled speech.

    The question is whether a state can compel a company to sell items that it or its customers consider to be morally offensive. If so, what is the limit on such state power? While these are not expressive products created by the owners, it is still compelling the store to associate with such products and their inherent message or values. For example, if Jack Phillips of Masterpiece Cakeshop is no longer required to make same-sex cakes, could he be required to sell pre-made same-sex cakes created by others?

    As many on this blog are aware, my natural default remains with free speech. However, people of good faith can disagree on such questions.

    The court may soon be involved in answering these questions in what is likely going to be a novel and important challenge out of California.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 22:15

  • Russia Warns Japan Against "Hostile Actions" Of Exporting Patriot Missiles For Ukraine
    Russia Warns Japan Against “Hostile Actions” Of Exporting Patriot Missiles For Ukraine

    Russia and Japan historically were enemies but in recent decades moved to being ‘frenemies’ given improved relations but also the ongoing simmering standoff regarding ownership of the Kuril chain of islands just north of Japan. The last two years have seen relations get tense once again due to Russia’s Ukraine operations, and Tokyo’s growing defense cooperation with the United States, which has evoked Beijing’s wrath as well. 

    This is especially so in light of last week’s announcement by the Japanese government saying it is preparing to ship Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to assist Ukraine. It’s a plan the Biden administration has sought and considers a major diplomatic ‘victory’.

    Getty Images

    Japan just announced a significant change to its arms export rules in order to make this happen, something the White House has welcomed at a moment Kiev is running low on ammo and advanced arms. It’s also another big move signaling that Japan is abandoning its historic post-WWII neutrality and pacifism.

    A headline last week in Nikkei Asia underscored that the planned Patriot transfer has ‘stunned’ regional watchers and analysts, given the US administration has long warned that China is the top ‘pacing threat’ to America globally: 

    Many have questioned the rationale of taking weapons out of the Indo-Pacific for a battle in Europe when the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has said all along that China is the pacing threat.

    The transfer of Patriots was a request from the U.S. side. This suggests that the Biden administration has concluded that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent. While many in Washington agree to that assessment, some oppose shifting attention away from the Indo-Pacific.

    The government of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida “has made a fundamental error in going along with the Biden administration’s prioritization of Europe,” said Elbridge Colby, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development.

    But doing Washington’s bidding is precisely what Tokyo is up to, and public statements were clear on this point:

    Tokyo previously only allowed for components of licensed equipment to be sent from Japan to the nation where the manufacturing license originated. But under the new rules it can ship finished goods too.

    Shortly after the government announced this change on Friday, the foreign ministry said it would ship Patriot missiles to the US to “further strengthen the Japan-US alliance”.

    It added that the missiles could only be sent to the US, and would require Japan’s approval to be sent to a third country. Japan still bans the export of weapons to countries at war.

    This could mean that Japan-made Patriot missiles may replenish the US’ stockpile, while Washington sends US-made ones to Ukraine.

    Hence while the missiles may not directly go to Ukraine, it’s certainly with an eye toward increasing supplies transferred there, and thus will indirectly benefit Ukrainian militarily. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Predictably, Moscow has blasted the move and warned Tokyo it faces “grave consequences”. Kremlin spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a Wednesday briefing, “The Japanese side loses control over the weapons with which Washington can now do whatever it wants.” She added: “It cannot be ruled out that under an already tested scheme Patriot missiles will end up in Ukraine.”

    She explained that such a scenario will be “interpreted as unambigously hostile actions against Russia and will lead to grave consequences for Japan in the context of bilateral relations.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 21:50

  • These Are The 10 Most Influential Crypto Tweets Of 2023
    These Are The 10 Most Influential Crypto Tweets Of 2023

    Authored by Daniel Ramirez-Escudero via CoinTelegraph.com,

    2023 has been a turbulent year for the crypto markets, but X encapsulated the rollercoaster of sentiments and became the perfect ledger to recall what occurred.

    2023 dragged some of the rotten apples from the bear market, which brought negative repercussions for the public image of the crypto industry. Fortunately, the market has shifted into what some may call a proper bull market as the halving ticks closer. 

    This article reviews the 10 most influential tweets from the crypto community in 2023.

    SEC charges Kraken for unregistered staking: Stake or steak?

    United States Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler kicked off 2023 by suing crypto exchange Kraken in an attempt to put some pressure on the crypto industry.

    The SEC charged Kraken with failing to register their crypto asset staking-as-a-service program. Kraken agreed to pay a $30 million fine and remove its staking services from the U.S. market.

    Gensler provided a video explanation worthy of being a crypto meme. As if speaking to a five-year-old, he clarified he was talking about “S-T-A-K-E, not S-T-E-A-K.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The relevance of this case was that it went beyond simply Kraken and its products, as it sparked doubt among crypto users and companies surrounding the legality of staking in the United States.

    While uncertainty and negative sentiment abounded amid the news, the SEC still hadn’t published clear guidelines for this kind of product for crypto-related services.

    By the end of the year, the SEC upped the ante by alleging that Kraken operated as an unregistered exchange and adding that it mixed customer assets with its own. Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell expressed his disbelief, calling the SEC “masochists” who seemed not to be content with the prior $30 million fine. The lawsuit is ongoing, though there are signs of a possible SEC defeat.

    Do Kwon: Catch me if you can

    The fall of Luna and stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) was the catalyst for the last bear market.

    The collapse of the stablecoin occurred in mid-2022, ditching retail victims around the globe and affecting many companies, such as Three Arrows, Voyager, Celsius, Digital Currency Group and many others.

    Shortly after, the Republic of Korea authorities required Luna’s creator, Do Kwon, to explain what happened at Congress. The telephone rang, but the voicemail kicked in. Kwon was on the run to become the most wanted crypto fugitive in history.

    As in the film Catch Me If You Can, several different crime organizations followed his trial in what seemed an impossible feat to catch him. Finally, the run was over on the 23rd of March when the Minister of Interior of Montenegro announced the arrest of Do Kwon as he was allegedly using falsified travel documents.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Kwon had been able to dodge authorities from South Korea, Singapur, Dubai, Interpol and several national forces from the Balcan territories. The fate of the Terraform Labs co-founder is to remain this Christmas in a cell in Montenegro, waiting for his possible extradition to the United States or South Korea; both outcomes seem dim for the Korean.

    Cobie’s private encrypted tweet: the power of Crypto Twitter

    Cobie is a prominent pseudonymous figure on Crypto Twitter and the broader crypto sector. His podcast UpOnly has many epic moments in crypto, such as when entrepreneur Martin Shkreli told Kwon in live streaming, “Jail is not that bad.”

    Cobie connects with the sentiment of the crypto community; therefore, his tweets are heavily analyzed and influential.

    On one occasion, more than $50 million was lost in liquidation as Binance’s BNB and Bitcoin prices plunged momentarily. A mediatic storm was created from a tweet from Cobie with a hash prediction.

    A hash prediction is a message encrypted by SHA256 hash. The encryption should output an illegible string. Hashes are one-way functions that can be created but not reversed (without brute forcing). Therefore, this tool is perfect for proving a prediction made to the public without revealing the message. When the moment comes, the owner can decrypt it to show it to the public.

    Deleted tweet of Cobie’s Twitter account. Source: X

    Unfortunately for Cobie, somebody was able to crack the post and spread the word. The encrypted message was “Interpol Red Notice for C.Z.” C.Z. is the diminutive of Changpeng Zhao, founder and former CEO of Binance.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Hours later, former Chief Strategy Officer of Binance, Patrick Hillmann, reacted to the mediatic crisis by trying to calm the waters, although ultimately adding more fuel to the fire.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Hillmann offered two explanations for the decrypted message. The second option opened the door for an open case of law enforcement against Binance.

    Cobie eventually told the public what may have happened, resulting in him narrowing down his circle of trust:

    Cobie’s explanation on what may have happened. Source: X

    This particular case demonstrated the volatility and power of Crypto Twitter over the crypto market.

    Coinbase ready to confront SEC in court

    The SEC was determined to be considered the most influential entity in the crypto market of the year 2023.

    On the 6th of June, the SEC charged Coinbase for the unregistered sale of securities with its staking-as-a-service program. The SEC crusade against the U.S. crypto industry was on.

    Coinbase knew what was coming after receiving a Wells notice months before letting them know a possible enforcement action was looming around. Coinbase argued that they often asked for clear guidelines and rules in the American crypto market. Coinbase was prepared and replied in a 40-second clip with their point of view of the matter.

    Coinbase viral ad campaign. Source: YouTube

    The SEC may have expected an easy victory with a settlement like the Kraken case. Despite the high stakes of going to court, Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, decided to take the bull by the horns and fight the SEC charges in court.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Coinbase is the most regulated crypto company in the U.S. market as it is publicly traded in the open market with its stock COIN. Armstrong’s stance is essential for the company and the entire crypto industry.

    BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF: the catalyst for the new crypto bull market

    At the mid-pickle of 2023, the biggest bullish news was launched. The largest asset manager in the world, BlackRock, filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Additionally, Coinbase was selected as the custodian of the ETF midst nine days prior to the ETF announcement the SEC had charged the exchange for its staking program and Coinbase accepted the fight in court.

    Screenshot of iShares Bitcoin Trust filing. Source: Eric Balchunas’ Twitter account

    BlackRock has a clean record regarding ETF proposals, with virtually 99,9% of them eventually being approved. The ETF success rate of BlackRock is 575 to 1. For the investors, when BlackRock presented its spot Bitcoin ETF to the SEC, it meant the question had changed from if to when a spot Bitcoin ETF would be approved.

    Retail and particularly institutional investors, who may have been hesitant to enter the crypto market directly due to compliance and regulatory impediments, could flood the crypto markets with new money. The effect would be an increase in demand, and thus, a rise in the price of Bitcoin.

    Gold price went on a 8-year bullrun after the gold ETF was approved. Source: Tommy Moustache

    Some even speculate that a similar effect occurred with gold when the first gold ETF was listed on the New York Stock Exchange, surging 250% on an 8-consecutive year bull run.

    SEC surrenders the Ripple case

    The SEC ignited 2020 a serious case against Ripple and its co-founder, Chris Larsen, and CEO, Brad Garlinghouse.

    The Ripple versus SEC case revolves around allegations that Ripple Labs conducted an unregistered securities offering by selling its XRP cryptocurrency. The Ripple case was paramount for the crypto market as if XRP was considered a security; many other tokens could be placed into the same basket.

    The case notoriously impacted Ripple and its native token. Garlinghouse was thrown temporally into the shadows and plunged the price of XRP, dethroning the legendary pole position of its currency in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

    After almost two years of fighting, Ripple gained small victories until the 19th of October, when the SEC dismissed the case against Garlinghouse and Larsen. For Stuart Alderoty, Chief Legal Officer of Ripple, this was a clear surrender of the SEC.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The XRP army, as the non-sympathetic of Ripple, celebrated the latest win. It was perceived as a bullish event for the crypto markets. As per Ripple, the case had demonstrated that “XRP is not, in and of itself a security.”

    Sam Bankman-Fried is sentenced to 110 years in jail

    The awaited moment arrived on Nov. 3, when U.S. Attorney Damian Williams called Bankman-Fried’s crimes “a multibillion-dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto” and one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In 2022, SBF was considered one of the year’s most influential people. One year later, he is regarded as a white-collar criminal.

    Many celebrities, politicians, and investors fell into his spell using his effective altruistic philosophy and connections. SBF became the impersonator of the crypto hype. His marketing team and personal ego pushed him to place himself as the hero of the crypto industry.

    Sam Bankman-Fried’s Nas Daily deleted video. Source: YouTube

    The soap opera created by SBF’s uprise and downfall came to an end. Crypto needed to close this chapter once and for all to evolve. The crypto industry celebrated this closure as possibly the end of the looming ghosts from the bear market.

    BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF on the go

    Months after the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF, the world’s largest fund filed its spot Ethereum ETF.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF was in the queue with five other firms that filled the petition: VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Invesco, Grayscale and Hashdex.

    The price of ETH rose immediately after the news spread out. With the new proposal of BlackRock, the intentions of dominating the future spot in the ETF crypto arena are clear.

    Changpeng Zhao steps down from Binance

    One of the most surprising events of the year may be Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, founder and former CEO of Binance, stepping down from the company he built from the ground up. At the moment of his exit, Binance was the most dominant cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of volume activity.

    Binance and CZ faced strong accusations from several U.S. authorities of intentionally violating Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policies with U.S. clients. The case was opened as, according to the regulator, Binance had failed to register as a securities exchange and operated illegally in the United States.

    After Binance checked the case, the big boom exploded. U.S. Justice Department settled with Binance to pay $4 billion in fines in exchange for being able to operate in the U.S. in a compliant manner. As part of the agreement, CZ would face the possibility of criminal charges as part of an investigation into “alleged money laundering, bank fraud and sanctions violations.”

    Cz announced he would take an extended break and announced Richard Teng as the new global CEO of Binance.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said in December to CNBC that CZ will eventually end up in jail. Before, this option was challenging to fulfill as he lived in UAE, a country with no extradition deal with the USA. Now, this could happen as when he pleaded guilty, he had to enter the United States and a judge prohibited him from leaving the country.

    El Salvador Bitcoin investments turn green

    El Salvador has placed itself on the global map and the history of cryptocurrencies as the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The decision of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele shocked the world. The 9th of June 2021 will be marked forever as a milestone for any maximalist.

    Bukele announced the adoption of BTC as one of the national currencies in the latest months of the last bull market. Since then, the Latin American state has purchased Bitcoin with public funds.

    As the bear market kicked in, Bukele gained detractors in the national and international sphere for his irresponsible actions. Bad press and pressures from different organizations became the norm, whereas Bukele doubled down and said El Salvador would be buying one BTC per day.

    The winds began to shift in favor of Bukele’s plan. El Salvador dismissed insolvency rumors by paying off the investors holding the Eurobond due on Jan. 24, 2023, a total of $800 million plus interest. Bukele roared against legacy media as, in his opinion, they were prosecuting him for creating a false narrative.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    After over two years, Bukele was finally served his most desired cold meal. In December 2023, El Salvador’s investment in Bitcoin not only recovered its original fiat value but was in profits.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    2023 may have seemed like a bitter, sour year at times, but it has laid the groundwork for a bullish scenario for 2024. There’ll be many more influential tweets to follow up on.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 21:25

  • Putin Told Xi Russia 'Will Fight For Five Years' In Ukraine
    Putin Told Xi Russia ‘Will Fight For Five Years’ In Ukraine

    While it’s become abundantly clear that Ukraine’s situation is currently dire and that Russian forces are winning the war amid Kiev’s severe manpower and ammo shortage, this wasn’t quite as evident back in March, when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow for rare talks as the war unfolded.

    A Wednesday report in Nikkei Asia has cited diplomatic sources who said Putin relayed to Xi something very interesting and unexpected in terms of a conflict timeline. According to them, Putin’s focus was to provide assurance to Xi that Russia would emerge victorious, with an aim to keep him at his side on the global stage. 

    Within that context, the diplomatic sources claim that Putin stated to Xi that Russia “will fight for [at least] five years” in Ukraine. Nikkei comments that the atmosphere was one where the tide of battle and the international pressure against Moscow was not seen as favorable to Russia and Putin’s war aims, and that this prompted Xi to hedge his bets, leading to instances like significant diplomatic overtures to the Zelensky government.

    Via AFP

    “The likely implication was that a protracted war would favor China’s well-armed partner,” Nikkei observes of the newly revealed content of the two leaders’ dialogue on the war. “Taken another way, the remark was also a warning to Xi not to change his pro-Russia stance.”

    The publication concludes of the lasting impact of Putin’s words, linking them to some of Xi’s internal house-cleaning of late:

    Whether Xi was convinced, Putin’s remark at the summit holds the key to understanding a series of mysterious developments in Russia-China relations, from a Chinese peace mission to Europe in May to China sacking its foreign minister months later.

    Nikkei observes further, “If the war between Russia and Ukraine grows more prolonged, it would significantly impact plans and ambitions Xi has for his unprecedented third term as China’s president and Chinese Communist Party general secretary.” Chiefly, “Xi’s big goal of unifying Taiwan with mainland China could also be affected.”

    It remains that in a scenario of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, and assuming Beijing’s support of Moscow stays consistent, this would bring more pressure than ever from Western countries, potentially leaving Xi almost as isolated as Putin. But given Moscow is emerging with the clear upper-hand, and with strong rumors that the West is quietly pushing Zelensky toward the negotiating table, Xi has indeed stuck by the ‘winning side’ of the conflict.

    Recently, The New York Times has said that Putin is looking to wind down the ‘special operation’ by negotiating a favorable end to the conflict (which no doubt means recognition of permanent Russian possession of the four territories, as well as Ukrainian recognition of Crimea as under Moscow). And now days later, this “five years” quote has emerged, adding to the ongoing speculation over the Russian leader’s near and far-term plans regarding his troops’ presence in Ukraine.

    From the archives: 2017 in Astana…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Realistically, the annexed oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia will have to stay militarized likely for years to come. It’s easy to imagine a scenario of Russian forces staying in these regions for at least a half-decade, ensuring that Russian suzerainty is permanently secured over Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 21:00

  • The Fear Factor And Winning The Independent Voter
    The Fear Factor And Winning The Independent Voter

    Authored by Adam Brandon via RealClear Wire,

    Voter trust and fear over the 2024 election are driving unprecedented interest in independent voters. The candidate who can address these fears, whether that candidate is Biden or Trump, will go on to win. With only a handful of states up for grabs, they need the independent vote.

    Winning independent voters is going to be a challenge. What’s more worrying for America is that a majority of Pennsylvania and Arizona “first-time voters” (voters aged 18-24) are ‘scared’ for the well-being of our country if either Trump or Biden is elected. But they see bipartisanship, or a politician who works across both sides of the aisle, as the only option that gives them some promise of security.

    In a recent Bullfinch poll conducted in two of the likely 2024 battleground states, 54% of voters from Arizona and 52% from Pennsylvania felt their best representative would be a politician who works with both sides of the aisle. In fact, the data shows that in a toss-up state like Pennsylvania, 51% of self-identified Democrats and 45% of self-identified Republicans prefer a candidate that works with both sides of the aisle over a candidate that works and votes only with their party.

    The problem these voters have is one of trust. There is little indication that either the Democrats or Republicans can convince independent voters they can be trusted.

    In Arizona, 66% of Democrats, 22% of independents, and 6% of Republicans trust that Joe Biden and the Biden administration would address the key issues that matter most to the respondent and their neighbors.

    In Pennsylvania, 70% of Democrats, 31% of independents, and just 9% of Republicans trust Biden and his administration to address key issues that matter most to them and their neighbors.

    Independent voters nationwide, like most voters, don’t feel anyone is listening to them, further eroding their trust. They feel the issues they care most about are not being addressed. They believe that the country has never been in a worse position than it is today. In a recent survey by the Independent Center, 66% feel their representative in Washington, D.C., is not listening to their voice and concerns, yet 49% believe a non-aligned independent representative would more clearly represent them.

    With this as the backdrop to the 2024 presidential election, it’s hard to imagine how anything good can come from the contest.

    All of this attention on the independent voter is positive. Never before have so many voters indicated they want another option, a better option. Recent polling from a Harvard CAPS-Harris survey shows Robert Kennedy Jr. with the highest favorability rating of all 2024 presidential candidates. This is also represented by the emergence of Nikki Haley, who is attracting and winning independent interest. Independent voters are hungry for choices and interested in hearing what they say.

    This is what needs to happen. After partisan gamesmanship, gerrymandering, and policy positions that purposely seek to divide Americans against each other, we might finally be turning the corner. This means a focus on bipartisan compromise, a position that can win the independent voter, especially in the swing states.

    To win the swing states and their deep pool of independent voters, it’s going to be a contest of which party and which candidate demonstrates they understand the issues independent voters care about. This is the key to regaining trust, but it is no easy feat.

    Refusing to acknowledge the issues and their importance to the independent voter is the first problem. Pretending we don’t have an immigration problem is not going to work, nor is denying the need to restructure Social Security before it goes bankrupt.

    Everyone is talking about independent voters, but not many have taken a deep dive to understand who they are and what they believe.

    They are as diverse as our country. They care about immigration and social reform, government and debt, inflation, and education. The research is clear: They care personally about jobs and social reform, but their position on abortion will determine their vote. This will make it hard for Republicans in the current environment. However, when asked, the issue they want to see their local candidates focus on most is affordability, a traditional Republican strength.

    Both Democrats and Republicans can find opportunities – these voters aren’t exactly radical. These voters want innovative common sense policies. They want others to tolerate their differences while finding common ground to move ahead. They want policies and positions that offer choices so they can exercise their free will to make a difference on issues by choosing what paths are best for themselves, their families, and their communities. They don’t want to be told there is only one way to address climate change, reform healthcare, or government services. They are rejecting the extremism of both parties.

    The candidate who wants to win independent voters needs to start listening. Conquering fear is going to mean change and is going to require some brave positions from both parties. The candidate who shows they are up for the challenge of rejecting extremism, reaching across the aisle, and having adult conversations with these voters can win.

    Adam Brandon is President of FreedomWorks. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 20:35

  • The Worst 'Candyflation' Is Yet To Come As Cocoa Prices Near Record
    The Worst ‘Candyflation’ Is Yet To Come As Cocoa Prices Near Record

    Cocoa prices Wednesday hit $4,285 per ton in New York, the highest level since 1978, as the outlook of poor crop harvests across West Africa has been a major bullish factor pushing prices higher this year. There is also an increasing risk that El Nino-induced weather disturbances could cause the global cocoa market to sink into a deficit for the third year.

    Bloomberg reports the world’s largest chocolate makers, Hershey Co. and Nestle SA, have yet to feel the full impacts of soaring prices because cocoa is bought well in advance. This only means consumers will see a further increase in the prices of their favorite candy bars in 2024. 

    “It’s the most extraordinary situation I’ve seen in my career,” said Jonathan Parkman, the head of agricultural sales at Marex Group, warning, “I don’t think we’ve seen the worst of the situation for consumers.”

    According to consumer researcher Euromonitor International, chocolate prices have risen 17% in the US over the last two years. Prices are expected to continue trending higher as cocoa production in West Africa – accounting for most of the world’s supply – remains extraordinarily tight. 

    “The market does not seem convinced that production will recover enough to avoid a supply deficit for 2023/24,” ADM Investor Services Inc. analysts wrote in a recent note. 

    Luca Zaramella, chief financial officer at Oreo cookies maker Mondelez International Inc., warned last month during an investor call:

    “There is pressure on cocoa.”

    Analysts warn El Nino-induced weather disturbances could bring drier weather to top-growing regions. They say that could result in a third year of deficits. 

    “The expectation of a supply deficit has been compounded with weather variations, especially in West Africa,” the International Cocoa Organization said in a recent report. 

    In June, we told readers: Global Cocoa Shortage Sends Prices Soaring As “Consumers Should Brace” For ‘Chocolateflation’… Fast forward to Halloween, ‘candyflation‘ strikes: 

    Data from retail price tracking website Datasembly reveals consumers have been slapped with the second year of double-digit inflation in the candy aisle. Prices for candy jumped 13% this month compared to prices last October. That’s up from a 14% increase in candy in October 2022. 

    Also, the price of butter, which accounts for 20% of the weight of an average chocolate, has soared, according to KnowledgeCharts, a unit of Commodities Risk Analysis. The entire process, from shipping to processing, has seen increased prices over the last few years, indicating that candyflation will be sticky. 

    “Product prices — liquor and butter — are off the charts, so it’s only now feeding to consumers,” Parkman said.

    It appears global central banks are powerless over El Nino-induced food inflation. Higher prices may be the only cure for Hershey’s Kiss and Crunch bar inflation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 20:10

  • China And India Account For More Than 90% Of Russian Oil And Fuel Exports
    China And India Account For More Than 90% Of Russian Oil And Fuel Exports

    By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

    China took in half of all the crude oil that Russia exported this year, with India a close second, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said today on state TV.

    China now accounts for 45% to 50% of Russian oil and fuel exports, while India is taking in some 40%, Novak said. The increase is particularly remarkable for India, where Russia exported almost no oil whatsoever until 2022. Now, it is the subcontinent’s leading supplier.

    “If earlier we exported around 40-45% of our total crude oil and refined products to Europe, by the end of this year we expect this share to have fallen to 4-5%,” Novak said.

    The figures suggest that China has essentially replaced Europe as destination for Russian crude and oil products.

    Last week, another Deputy PM said that Russia’s oil exports are seen rising 7% this year from 2021 levels.

    “The most pressing problems last year have generally been resolved. This firstly concerns payments and cargo insurance, [and] secondly concerns ensuring seaborne shipping of hydrocarbons by tanker fleet,” Alexander Belousov said.

    Also last week, Transneft’s head, Nikolay Tokarev, reported that the volume of Russian oil shipments to China this year had surged to some 100 million tons, equal to about 2 million barrels daily.

    “Export volumes to China and India have increased significantly; many times over. I can say that about 70 million tonnes of oil were supplied to India this year, while about 100 million tonnes of oil went to China,” Tokarev said.

    Indian imports of Russian crude, meanwhile, hit a four-month high in November, at 1.6 million bpd, according to data Reuters reported it had obtained from trade sources. The November imports were 3.1% higher than India’s intake of Russian crude in October and accounted for more than a third of all Indian crude oil imports last month. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 19:45

  • The Cost Of Grain That Feeds The World Hits New 15-Year High
    The Cost Of Grain That Feeds The World Hits New 15-Year High

    On Wednesday, the Thai Rice Exporters Association revealed that the price of Thai white rice 5% broken, a key Asian benchmark, reached a new 15-year high. This surge is mainly attributed to increasing fears of a global shortage due to the damaging effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon on Asian farmlands and India’s recent decision to restrict certain rice exports.

    Thai white rice 5% broken hit $659 a ton, the highest level since October 2008. Prices of the staple food that feeds billions of people worldwide are up over 50% since the start of 2022. 

    Chief Asia Economist at HSBC Global Research, Frederic Neumann, recently told clients that skyrocketing rice prices present hurdles for central banks combating high inflation. He drew parallels between the current surge in food prices and the one that rocked the world in 2008, noting that shortage fears are rising for the staple food that feeds billions of people.

    “The memory of the 2008 Asian food price scare sits deep,” Neumann wrote. 

    He said, “Back then, rising rice prices in some economies quickly spilled over into other markets as consumers and governments across the region scrambled to secure supplies. It also lifted the prices of other staples, such as wheat, as buyers shifted to alternatives.”

    Last month, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore that the current food crisis surpassed the one in 2007-08, which ultimately sparked the Arab Spring across the Middle East a few years later. 

    Menker said elevated crop prices and steep declines in local currencies against the dollar have severely pressured households of emerging market economies. 

    And remember, SocGen’s Albert Edwards warned in late 2020 that central banks’ money printing during Covid would spark a rise in food prices and the usual social-economic instabilities. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 19:20

  • Vivek Ramaswamy's Campaign Halts 'Idiotic' TV Ad Spending Ahead Of Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary
    Vivek Ramaswamy’s Campaign Halts ‘Idiotic’ TV Ad Spending Ahead Of Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign has stopped spending money on “idiotic” television advertisements with just weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, according to a campaign representative.

    Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy arrives for a campaign event at the AmericInn in Webster City, Iowa, on Dec. 19, 2023. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    Mr. Ramaswamy’s campaign spokesperson confirmed to NBC News that the biotech entrepreneur had stopped purchasing standard broadcast TV ads—which typically make up the majority of political advertising spending in the United States—and does not have any booked for the immediate or distant future.

    Instead, his campaign is focusing on a different strategy with less than a month to go before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses and the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary, the spokesperson said.

    “We are focused on bringing out the voters we’ve identified—best way to reach them is using addressable advertising, mail, text, live calls, and doors to communicate with our voters on Vivek’s vision for America, making their plan to caucus and turning them out,” Tricia McLaughlin, Mr. Ramaswamy’s campaign’s press secretary told the broadcast television network.

    “As you know, this isn’t what most campaigns look like. We have intentionally structured this way so that we have the ability to be nimble and hyper-targeted in our ad spending,” Ms. McLaughlin added.

    Separately, Mr. Ramaswamy wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that presidential TV ad spending is “idiotic,” comes with a low return on investment, and is a “trick that political consultants use to bamboozle candidates who suffer from low IQ.”

    “We’re doing it differently. Spending $$ in a way that follows data…apparently a crazy idea in US politics,” the GOP presidential candidate wrote.

    “Big surprise coming on Jan 15,” he concluded.

    $12 Million Plans

    As recently as November, Mr. Ramaswamy’s campaign said it planned to spend more than $12 million on ads, including broadcast, cable, radio, digital, and direct mail, in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Since that announcement, the campaign has spent $2.2 million on TV, digital, and radio ads, NBC News reported, citing figures from the political ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

    As recently as the first whole week of December, his campaign spent more than $200,000 on TV ads before slashing such spending down to just $6,000, according to NBC News.

    Despite the slow-down in TV ad spending, Mr. Ramaswamy appears to remain hopeful going into the Iowa caucus, telling Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” on Dec. 24 that he is “actually confident we’re going to overdeliver massively at the Iowa caucus.”

    “Many of the people supporting us are first-time caucus-goers, some of them young people, some of them America-first patriots or libertarians who haven’t thought of themselves as traditional Republicans who are coming out in droves,” he said. “I think we’re going to have a major surprise on January 15.“

    A week earlier, he also told NBC News during a campaign event in Windham, New Hampshire, that he believes “if the election was held amongst the subset of people who go to events, I think we’d probably win Iowa, New Hampshire right now.”

    Trails Trump in Polls

    Yet while the 38-year-old remains optimistic about the upcoming Iowa caucus, multiple polls show former President Donald Trump still maintains a significant lead over all of his rivals.

    According to the RealClearPolitics average of Republican Primary poll, President Trump maintains a dominating lead, at 62.5 percent followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 11.3 percent and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 11 percent.

    Mr. Ramaswamy, meanwhile, trails behind in fourth place with just 4 percent, according to the poll.

    He also recently placed fourth in the latest Emerson College poll in Iowa, which shows President Trump leading the way with 50 percent support among Republican caucus voters.

    The decision by Mr. Ramaswamy’s campaign to pull TV ad spending ahead of the first contests in January also comes amid speculation that he may drop out of the competition and endorse President Trump.

    However, the entrepreneur appeared to put an end to that speculation this week, telling Fox News that he is “not a plan B person” and does not intend to be President Trump’s running mate for 2024.

    “I respect Trump and his accomplishments for this country,” he said. “Unlike a lot of the other candidates, I’m not sitting here Monday morning quarterbacking some decision he made.”

    “But I believe we are the right people to take our America-first agenda to the next level,” he said. “I think it’s going to take somebody with fresh legs. Somebody from the next generation, if I may say it, to lead the next generation.”

    Frank Fang contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 18:55

  • Xi Vows "Any Means" To Stop Taiwan Seceding From China, Weeks Before Major Election
    Xi Vows “Any Means” To Stop Taiwan Seceding From China, Weeks Before Major Election

    Taiwan is just over two weeks away from key elections, something increasingly attracting global media attention given fresh threats from Beijing. On Wednesday China warned of further trade sanctions on Taiwan in the event the ruling party “stubbornly” commits to supporting independence. 

    Spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Chen Binhua has addressed a message to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), saying “If the DPP authorities are determined to persevere, continue to stubbornly adhere to their Taiwan independence position, and refuse to repent, we support the relevant departments taking further measures in accordance with the regulations.”

    Via AP

    Presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on Jan.13, but Beijing has warned that the self-ruled island’s reunification is inevitable. 

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday issued some his strongest words on the issue thus far, vowing to use “any means” to prevent anyone from “making Taiwan secede from China.”

    He issued the words in a speech marking the 130th anniversary of the PRC founder Mao Zedong’s birth. He also stressed the necessity of maintaining the “one country, two systems” policy in Hong Kong and Macau while emphasizing the need for a central government to exercise “overall jurisdiction”.

    He said of Taiwan that “China’s complete reunification is an inevitable trend” and that reunification is “what the people desire.” He further urged that the Chinese Communist Party must set its sights of a grander policy of “resolving the Taiwan question in the new era.”

    China’s official position has been that it always seeks first reunification through peaceful and political means, and again called for “advance integrated development in all fields” across the strait bases on peaceful development of cross-strait ties.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    But that’s when Xi pledged to ‘resolutely’ prevent any movement or outside force from “making Taiwan secede from China by any means.” Of course, China sees Washington as the biggest instigator in the region, particularly through high level visits of US officials and repeat arms transfers involving advanced weapons systems.

    * * *

    Among Foreign Policy’s 5 Predictions for China in 2024, there is the below analysis of an expected “Taiwan Mini-crisis” sparked by the upcoming election [emphasis ZH]…

    “Taiwan holds a presidential election on Jan. 13, and the year could start with a small crisis in the straits. Current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, who serves under President Tsai Ing-wen and is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), holds a narrow lead in the polls. His election would ire Beijing; he is an advocate for a more independent Taiwan and strongly opposed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

    Although Lai has said he won’t call for formal Taiwanese independence or drop the Republic of China name—a red line for Beijing—he has also said that Taiwan’s sovereignty is “a fact” and reminded his fellow candidates that by Beijing’s standards, they are all pro-independence.

    A Lai victory would likely prompt aggressive moves from Beijing, including naval maneuvers and airspace intrusions. Reports last week about comments made by Xi  to U.S. President Joe Biden about reunification with Taiwan when they met in November stirred some panic in Washington, but an invasion remains highly unlikely. It would be risky and difficult, especially when China is struggling with other crises.

    Even a victory for Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) on Jan. 13 may cause some problems. The KMT is more pro-China than the DPP, but it would hardly hand the keys to the island over to Beijing. Chinese officials might overestimate the significance of a KMT election win, seeing it as a sign of China’s influence in Taiwan. Although 17 percent of Taiwanese voters said in a recent survey that China is their main concern, more than twice that number picked the economy.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 18:30

  • The 9 Senate Races To Watch In 2024
    The 9 Senate Races To Watch In 2024

    Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Next year’s competition for control of the U.S. Senate will be a critical battle as Democrats defend more seats than Republicans.

    (Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)

    The Democrats currently control the upper chamber by the slimmest of margins, 51–49.

    Whoever wins the Senate will control the legislation before the floor, as well as accept or reject judicial and executive nominees, who help shape policy.

    Democrat strategist Mark Mellman predicts the Democrats could keep the Senate if the GOP puts up the same candidates that lost in crucial races in 2022. But, he told The Epoch Times, things are up in the air until the primaries are over.

    The following are the nine crucial races that could determine who will take control of the Senate come Jan. 3, 2025.

    1. Arizona

    In this swing state, it could ultimately be a three-way race between incumbent independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat Rep. Reuben Gallego, and former journalist and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

    Other Republicans in the primary include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, business consultant George Nicholson, and mechanical engineer Brian Wright.

    President Joe Biden won The Grand Canyon state by just 0.3 percentage points in the 2020 election.

    Ms. Lake is dominating the GOP primary, according to polling averages by RealClearPolitics.

    However, most polls show both Ms. Lake and Mr. Lamb losing out in the general election to Mr. Gallego—who has been in the House since 2015. Ms. Sinema, the incumbent, is polling below 20 percent. The former Democrat switched her affiliation to independent in December 2022.

    “I have joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics by declaring my independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent,” Ms. Sinema stated in a post on Twitter at the time.

    (L–R) Sen. Krysten Sinema from Arizona, who changed her party affiliation from Democrat to independent, in a hearing at the U.S. Capitol in Washington in 2022; Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.,) holds a press conference in Tempe, Ariz., on March 14, 2023; and former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake speaks at an event in Maryland on March 4, 2023. (Bonnie Cash-Pool/Getty Images, Rebecca Noble/AFP via Getty Images, Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    2. Ohio

    While Republicans have won Ohio in the past three of five presidential elections, incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown won re-election in 2018, at the same time the GOP expanded its majority in the Senate.

    Mr. Brown, who is known to be a blue-collar Democrat, is running for re-election, setting up a potentially tight race. He has been in the Senate since 2007.

    Republicans who have declared a run include Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state senator Matt Dolan, and former car dealership owner and 2022 Senate candidate Bernie Moreno.

    Mr. Moreno has been endorsed by Sens. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Mike Lee (R-Utah), while Mr. Dolan has been endorsed by Cleveland Browns owners Jimmy Haslam and his wife, Dee.

    On his Truth Social platform on Dec. 19, former President Donald Trump endorsed Mr. Moreno, saying “a successful political outsider like Bernie” is needed to beat Mr. Brown.

    Despite Mr. LaRose’s lack of major endorsements, he is leading in the GOP primary, according to current polling averages by RealClearPolitics.

    President Trump won the Buckeye State by about 8 percentage points in 2020, roughly the same as his 2016 win over Hillary Clinton.

    Most polls show Mr. Brown leading in a general election matchup, according to FiveThirtyEight.

    (L–R) Ohio State Sen. Matt Dolan, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks with a local television station in Cleveland on April 28, 2022; entrepreneur Bernie Moreno kicks off his campaign in suburban Cincinnati on April 18, 2023; and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose attends a news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on July 12, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images, Courtesy of Everitt Townsend)

    3. Pennsylvania

    Incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey is running for re-election, but could face a tough race against David McCormick, who is the only Republican that has declared.

    Mr. McCormick has garnered endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mt.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the fundraising arm of the Senate GOP.

    Mr. McCormick narrowly lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary in Pennsylvania to Mehmet Oz, the celebrity doctor that went on to lose the general election to Sen. John Fetterman, a progressive Democrat.

    President Biden won the Keystone State by 1.17 percentage points in 2020.

    Early polls show Mr. Casey leading Mr. McCormick in a general election matchup.

    (L–R) Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) at campaign rally in Philadelphia on Sept, 21, 2018; and Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate, during an event in Pittsburgh on May 17, 2022. (Mark Makela/Getty Images, Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

    4. Montana

    This red state could be a Republican pickup as the expected nominee, retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, could unseat incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester. 

    Mr. Tester won re-election in 2018 by 3.55 percentage points against now-Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican, who has also expressed a possible run.

    President Trump easily won the Treasure State in 2020 with close to 57 percent of the vote.

    There has only been one poll conducted for this race in the past few months, from Emerson, which showed Mr. Tester leading Mr. Sheehy by 4 percentage points.

    Tim Sheehy, former Navy SEAL and 2024 Republican Senate candidate, in Montana; and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) at a press conference in Washington on June 16, 2022. (Courtesy of Tim Sheehy, Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    5. Nevada

    Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for re-election in a state President Biden won in 2020 by just 2.39 percentage points.

    Republicans who have jumped into the primary so far include Army veteran Sam Brown, who suffered burns to his face from a roadside bomb during his service in Afghanistan in 2008; and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant, who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state in 2022 and Congress in 2020.

    Mr. Brown has received endorsements from Sen. John Thune from South Dakota, as well as Americans for Prosperity, the largest conservative grassroots organization in the United States.

    President Biden narrowly won the Silver State by just under 2.4 percentage points in 2020 whereas President Trump lost it by almost that much in the 2016 race.

    The most recent poll, commissioned by the NRSC, shows Mr. Brown trailing Ms. Rosen in a general election head-to-head by 5 percentage points.

    (L–R) Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) during a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 10, 2021; Republican Army veteran Sam Brown is running for the U.S. Senate in Nevada; and Jim Marchant, Republican candidate for Nevada secretary of state, in Henderson, Nev., on Nov. 6, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, Public domain)
     

    6. West Virginia

    With Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin not running for re-election, it is likely the Mountain State will flip to the GOP.

    Gov. Jim Justice is the early favorite and likely winner, with big endorsements coming in from President Trump and Mr. McConnell.

    Mr. Justice does, however, face a handful of other candidates in the primary, most notably Rep. Alex Mooney.

    The only Democrat in the race at the moment is U.S. Marine Corps veteran and political organizer Zachary Shrewsbury.

    President Trump overwhelmingly won the state in 2020 with almost 69 percent of the vote.

    There have been no polls conducted since Mr. Manchin announced in November he will not seek a third term, but he has floated the idea of an independent run for president.

    West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announces that he is switching parties to become a Republican as President Donald Trump looks on at a campaign rally in Huntington, W.V., on Aug. 3, 2017. (Justin Merriman/Getty Images)

    7. Michigan

    Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow is running for re-election, but she’s up against Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the primary, who is winning in any matchup against the GOP candidates, according to the latest polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Actor Hill Harper is also in the Democrat primary.

    The race is still considered a likely tossup as the GOP field includes former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer, as well as former Detroit Police Chief James Craig.

    President Biden won the Wolverine State by 2.78 percentage points in 2020.

    Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) speaks to Michigan State University students and their supporters after a campus shooting, during a rally outside of the state Capitol Building in Lansing, Mich., on Feb. 15, 2023. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    8. Wisconsin

    Incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running for re-election, after winning her second term in 2018 by almost 11 percentage points.

    Republicans who have entered the race include county supervisor Stacey Klein; Rejani Raveendran, a 40-year old college student who is the president of her university Republicans chapter; and retired Army Reserve Sgt. Maj. Patrick Schaefer-Wicke.

    Notable Republicans—including former Gov. Scott Walker, Reps. Mike Gallagher, Tom Tiffany, and Bryan Steil—have declined to throw their hat into the ring.

    President Biden narrowly won the Badger State by 0.63 percentage points, or 20,682 votes, in 2020.

    No up-to-date polls about the race have been published, but it’s looking like a tough hill to climb for Republicans.

    Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Nov. 29, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    9. New Jersey

    This race is more about which Democrat will win the seat if embattled incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez can’t hold onto it.

    Mr. Menendez, who has been in the Senate since 2007 and in Congress since 1993, is facing federal corruption-related charges.

    He faces big primary challengers in Democrats Tammy Murphy, wife of Gov. Phil Murphy, and Rep. Andy Kim.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 18:05

  • Doug Casey On What Really Happened In 2023 And What Comes Next
    Doug Casey On What Really Happened In 2023 And What Comes Next

    Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

    International Man: As we approach the end of the year, let’s take a step back, look at the Big Picture, and put 2023 into perspective so we can better understand what may come next.

    Significant financial, economic, political, cultural, and geopolitical developments occurred in 2023.

    On the cultural front, 2023 may be the year that the tide started to shift against the woke insanity.

    BlackRock’s Fink dropped ESG. Woke movies continue to bomb at theaters. Bud Light, Target, and Disney continue to feel the pain of deliberately alienating their customer base.

    What’s your take on the cultural developments in 2023?

    Doug Casey: There are always reactions to major trends. These things are worth noting, but considering the virulence of the woke movement, the reaction has been tepid. There’s always a rearguard fighting for things as they are. And that’s wonderful because the Wokesters want to overturn the entire culture much the same way as the Jacobins overturned it in revolutionary France, the Bolsheviks overturned the culture in Russia, the Red Guards in China, or Pol Pot did in Cambodia.

    The Wokesters are potentially just as dangerous because their way of thinking is everywhere in the West.

    They’re similar to the movements I’ve just mentioned in that they’re stridently against free speech, free thought, free markets, tradition, and limited government—nothing new there. But they’ve weaponized gender and race as well. They’re virulent, humorless, and puritanical. They see themselves as the wave of the future, but they’ve only repackaged the notions of Marx, Lenin, Stalin, and Hitler.

    My view is that the Wokesters hate humanity and hate themselves. They’re dishonest, arrogant, and entitled. Look at the current scandal involving the diversity-hire presidents at Harvard, Penn, and MIT. They’re shameful embarrassments. The fact their boards of trustees installed these fools shows how deep the rot goes.

    The Woke have ingrained psychological/spiritual aberrations.

    They don’t just control academia, finance, entertainment, and the media. They also dominate the State’s apparatus. Which means they basically have the law on their side.

    Perhaps ESG is being de-emphasized by Blackrock, the new vampire squid, but that’s only because they fear losing money more than they value their beliefs. The more pernicious DEI remains a major cultural trend.

    Where will it end?

    Wokism is more than a passing fad. There’s a good chance it will end with a violent confrontation between people who have culturally conservative views and those who want to destroy Western Civilization and upset the nature of society as we know it.

    International Man: 2023 was a year of major geopolitical developments.

    It became evident to even the mainstream media that the war in the Ukraine was not going well for NATO.

    There was also the Hamas attack and the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

    Azerbaijan defeated Armenia to reclaim a long-disputed territory.

    Saudi Arabia welcomed Syria back into the Arab League, ended the war in Yemen, restored diplomatic relations with Iran, joined the BRICS countries, and expanded its economic ties with China.

    These are just a few of the most prominent geopolitical events of 2023.

    What do you make of the geopolitical situation and where things are heading?

    Doug Casey: The end of US hegemony over the world in all areas is becoming obvious. The world resents being bullied and controlled by Washington, DC.

    They realize that the US government is bankrupt and is living entirely on printed money. Its military is bloated and more expensive than the US can afford.

    While it’s bloated, it’s also being gutted, unable to recruit new soldiers and sailors. It’s easy to see why that’s the case. They see pointless wars fomented everywhere. The type of people who traditionally join the military are disgusted by the woke memes circulating through the services. White males, who have always been the backbone of the military, are appalled at being actively discriminated against.

    US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily.

    It’s obvious when you see that Biden and Harris, two utterly incompetent, ineffectual fools, are the nominal heads of the government. Not to mention all the degraded and psychologically damaged people in the cabinet. Of course, nobody has any respect for the US anymore.

    The US hegemony of the last hundred years is on its way out. And as the old order changes, there are going to be upsets. The US will leave a vacuum that will be filled by other forces.

    In fact, the US Government is the biggest danger to the world today. It’s not providing order. By sticking its nose into everyone else’s business everywhere, it’s promoting chaos. Its 800+ bases around the world are provocations. The carrier groups that it has wandering around are sitting ducks with today’s technology. The US is the main source of risk in the world, not safety.

    US military spending is really just corporate welfare for the five big “defense” corporations, which build weapons suited for fighting the last war or maybe the war before the last war. For instance, a missile frigate or destroyer guarding a carrier might carry 100 vertically-launched anti-aircraft missiles at $2 million each. Each missile might succeed in shooting down a $10,000 drone. But what happens when the enemy launches 200 drones at once? The chances are the US loses a $2 billion destroyer, if not a carrier.

    The US government is finding that they’re not only disliked but disrespected by countries and people all over the world. They’re increasingly viewed as a paper tiger. Or the Wizard of Oz. When they lose the fear factor, it’s game over.

    International Man: In 2023, the US continued the trend of more political polarization.

    What were the most consequential events on the US political front, and what do you think comes next?

    Doug Casey: Let me reemphasize that the Jacobins who control Washington, DC, have the same psychological makeup as past revolutionaries I’ve mentioned.

    These people are incapable of changing their minds or reforming. I think they’ll do absolutely anything they can to retain power.

    Meanwhile, traditional Americans in red states see that Trump is being railroaded with lawfare to derail his campaign. They’re angrier than ever, justifiably. The red people and the blue people really hate each other at this point—and can’t talk to each other.

    The country has been completely demoralized as traditional values have been washed away. It’s now very unstable.

    The coming election, should we actually have one, will be not just a political but a cultural contest. Culture wars are especially dangerous in the midst of a financial collapse and economic collapse.

    International Man: The projected annual interest expense on the federal debt hit $1 trillion for the first time in 2023.

    Americans are still paying for the rampant currency debasement during the Covid hysteria as the price of groceries, insurance, rent, and most other things continued to rise in 2023.

    It looks like a recession is on the horizon.

    What are your thoughts on economic developments in 2023 and your outlook for the months ahead?

    Doug Casey: As an amateur student of history, it seems to me that the US has been moving away from the founding principles that made it unique for over a hundred years. I’m 77. I’ve watched it happen firsthand for much of that time.

    The trend has been accelerating.

    The country is heading towards a massive crisis because it’s lost its philosophical footing. The result is going to be a really serious depression. I call it the Greater Depression.

    The spread between the haves who live in multi-million dollar houses and the have-nots who live in tents isn’t new. After all, Jesus said, “The poor you will always have with you.” What’s new is that the middle class is being impoverished. What’s left of the middle class is deeply in debt—student debt, credit card debt, car loan debt, mortgage debt. And if they’re not lucky enough to have a house with mortgage debt, they’re renting. And rents have gone up so rapidly that if the average guy has an unforeseen $500 expense, he can’t pay it.

    That augurs poorly for consumption. It’s said, idiotically, that the American economy rests on consumption. It’s idiotic because it should be said that it rests on production. But I’m not sure the US produces that much anymore.

    Most of the people who “work” basically sit at desks and shuffle papers. Few actively create real wealth.

    On top of that, the country is vastly over-financialized.

    The bond market has already largely collapsed, but it can get a lot worse as interest rates head back up to the levels that they were in the early 1980s and beyond.

    Much lower stock prices are in the cards, both because of high interest rates and because people won’t be consuming such massive quantities of corporate produce.

    The real estate market rests on a foundation of debt. It can easily go bust as interest rates go up. We’re already seeing this with office buildings across the country. And, of course, these office buildings are financed by banks. Banks are going to see a lot of defaults on loans they’ve made.

    Meanwhile, bank capital invested in bonds has eroded because bond prices fall in proportion to the degree rise in interest rates, which have gone from close to zero to 5% or 6%. If banks had to mark their loans and capital investments to the market, most would already be bankrupt.

    Can the government paper all these things over by printing yet more money? I suppose.

    But at some point very soon, the dollar will lose value very rapidly; it will be treated like a hot potato. They’re caught between a rock and a hard place.

    International Man: This year, we saw the price of gold hit a record high, uranium reached $81.25 per pound, and Bitcoin more than doubled as it entered a new bull market. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up around 21% year to date as of writing.

    What are your thoughts on what happened in the financial markets in 2023 and what could come next?

    Doug Casey: Unfortunately, the US central bank, the Fed, has a gigantic amount of influence over the markets.

    They can employ “quantitative easing,” which means printing money—and “quantitative tightening,” which means decreasing the money and artificially raising interest rates.

    They have many hundreds of Ph.D. economists on staff, but all these people operate on phony Keynesian theories of the way the world works. The consequences of building an economic system on a foundation of paper money and gigantic amounts of debt are potentially catastrophic.

    At this point, the economy’s on the razor edge. If they push the print button and hold it down too long, we could go into a runaway inflation. Or, to tamp down inflation, they might raise interest rates and contract the money supply, which might set off a 1929-style credit collapse.

    We’re caught between Scylla and Charybdis at this point. And I don’t believe it’s a question of a soft landing or a hard landing. It’s a question of how devastating the crash landing will be.

    I hope they can wring one more cycle out of all this because I personally prefer good times to bad times, even if they’re artificial good times, because the bad times are going to be very real.

    *  *  *

    Doug Casey’s forecasts helped investors prepare and profit from: 1) the S&L blowup in the ’80s and ’90s, 2) the 2001 tech stock collapse, 3) the 2008 financial crisis, 4) and now… Doug’s sounding the alarms about a catastrophic event. One he believes could soon strike. To help you prepare and profit, Doug and his team have prepared a special video. Click here to watch now.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 17:25

  • House Republicans Zero In On 'Impeachable Offense' If Biden Was Involved In Hunter Subpoena Dodge
    House Republicans Zero In On ‘Impeachable Offense’ If Biden Was Involved In Hunter Subpoena Dodge

    House Republicans are investigating whether President Biden was involved in his son Hunter’s “scheme” to duck out on a Congressional subpoena to testify earlier this month, which they say “could constitute an impeachable offense.”

    Three House committees; Oversight, Judiciary and Ways & Means, announced on Wednesday that they are investigating “whether sufficient grounds exist to draft articles of impeachment against President Biden for consideration by the full House,” Fox News reports.

    In a letter to White House Counsel Edward Siskel notifying him of the additional area of their investigations, Comer and Jordan said: “In light of an official statement from the White House that President Biden was aware in advance that his son, Hunter Biden, would knowingly defy two congressional subpoenas, we are compelled to examine as part of our impeachment inquiry whether the President engaged in a conspiracy to obstruct a proceeding of Congress.”

    Hunter Biden was scheduled to appear on Dec. 13 before the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees, and instead, held an impromptu press conference on Capitol Hill, where he claimed: “My father was not financially involved ion my business. Not as a practicing lawyer. Not as a board member of Burisma. Not in my partnership with a Chinese private businessman. Not in my investments at home nor abroad, and certainly not as an artist.”

    Hunter instead said that he would “only testify in a public forum, a demand for special treatment that the Committees had previously rejected.”

    “Although Mr. Biden professed an interest in answering questions about his actions, he departed the Capitol grounds without taking any questions. The committees subsequently recorded Mr. Biden’s non-appearance at his deposition,” they continued.

    What does Joe think about people who dodge subpoenas? 

    In response to Hunter skipping out, Comer wrote: “Hunter Biden today defied lawful subpoenas and we will now initiate contempt of Congress proceedings,” adding “We will not provide special treatment because his last name is Biden.”

     

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 17:05

  • Serial California Shoplifter To Stand Trial After 90 Arrests
    Serial California Shoplifter To Stand Trial After 90 Arrests

    Authored by Micaela Ricaforte via The Epoch Times,

    A serial shoplifter from the Bay Area who has been arrested 90 times will be put to trial this week after the Contra Costa District Attorney’s office filed a complaint against him – consolidating 31 misdemeanors from the past year.

    Jesse Leonardo Otero, 44, is well-known by Bay Area businesses and law enforcement for his frequent shoplifting and arrests, local news outlet KRON reported.

    Mr. Otero was released Dec. 8 from the Martinez Detention Facility on misdemeanor charges, according to KRON.

    But just a few hours later, he was arrested outside a Pleasant Hill shopping center near San Francisco’s Tenderloin District.

    He is homeless and sustains a drug addiction through shoplifting and selling stolen goods, according to media reports.

    Despite his extensive criminal record, Mr. Otero avoids lengthy jail sentences because most shoplifting offenses are now classified as misdemeanors if the stolen merchandise amounts to less than $950.

    Because of this, police departments are compelled to issue citations rather than detain Mr. Otero despite his repeated criminal history.

    Police officer Jacob Williams told KRON4, “Prop 47 took away one of the main tools for shoplifting that was used pretty frequently – that being (penal code) 666. So, prior convictions or other instances of shoplift were used to ensure that this person was actually booked into jail.”

    Williams continued:

    “Nowadays, with the way that the filing standards have changed and the law is written, if it’s a petty theft under $950, he’s given the same ticket that you would get for running a stop sign.

    So that person is no longer booked into jail based off the shoplift alone — even if we are aware of prior convictions on his criminal history.

    His latest arrest follows a Nov. 21 arrest in South San Francisco after a theft at a mall, when he attempted to evade police by running onto an interstate highway before being detained.

    A few days later, Mr. Otero reportedly stole $340 worth of items from an East San Francisco bike store.

    “It doesn’t matter whether you steal $10, or $100. All this stuff adds up. By the end of the year, you have a big loss. And for small businesses, I mean, we’re trying to survive,” one store owner told KRON4.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 16:45

  • WTI Extends 'Death Cross' Losses After API Reports Another Unexpected Crude Build
    WTI Extends ‘Death Cross’ Losses After API Reports Another Unexpected Crude Build

    Oil prices pumped and dumped today after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebel militia’s attacks on tankers sparked supply concerns overnight which were then completely forgotten about as US Treasury yields puked lower during the day (and Maesrk reportedly scheduling several dozen ships to move through the Suez Canal, suggesting that the world’s leading shipping firm is not afraid of the Houthi attacks – or at least is hopeful about US protection).

    Meanwhile, demand concerns also loom over the market, particularly in China where strong demand over the first nine months of the year has started to moderate, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth U.S., in a note.

    “The market expects that approximately 800,000 of the 1.2-1.6 million barrels-per-day growth next year will come from China, with jet fuel leading the charge,” she wrote.

    “The lack of confidence in China’s economy in 2024 remains the market’s biggest concern followed by fear that U.S. production will continue to beat estimates as it did in 2023.”

    The cautious sentiment, however, creates a low bar for positive surprises in 2024, Babin said, in contrast to a 2023 where expectations of massive inventory draws were too hard to live up to.

    Oil ended lower ahead of the API inventory data.

    API

    • Crude +1.837mm (-2.4mm exp)

    • Cushing

    • Gasoline (+100k exp)

    • Distillates (+700k exp)

    After the prior week’s surprise crude build, expectations were for a 2.4mm crude draw last week. But once again, crude stocks unexpectedly built by 1.837mm barrels…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI was hovering just below $74 ahead of the API print after a wild day, and extended losses on the unexpected build…

    “As we approach the year end, more of the trade will focus on re-aligning positions on thin trading volume unless of course we see further attacks in the Red Sea area,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, in a note to clients.

    Finally, we note that WTI suffered a ‘death cross’ today – the first since Sept 2022 – with the 50-day moving average for WTI crossing below the 200-DMA.

    Additionally, timespreads – a critical barometer for supply and demand – softened, with the gap between WTI’s nearest two contracts at 24 cents a barrel in contango compared with 14 cents yesterday.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/27/2023 – 16:35

Digest powered by RSS Digest