- David Stockman On The Syrian Fiasco… A Case Of The "Empire First" Folly In Spades
David Stockman On The Syrian Fiasco… A Case Of The “Empire First” Folly In Spades
Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,
If there was ever a moment that laid bare the utter stupidity and futility of Washington’s Empire First policy it surely emerged in the smoking ruins of Syria. The latter was the desultory culmination of Washington’s 13-years-long effort to destroy the legitimate government of Syria on the purported grounds that Assad was a brutal tyrant and plunderer of the country’s paltry wealth.
The fact is, he probably was just that. And might well have been among the worst of the dozens of tyrants who today oppress their citizens in nations large and small around the world. But then again, did God Almighty anoint Washington as some kind of planetary Good Shepard charged with bringing just and kind rule to all the peoples of the planet?
We think not. Indeed, maintenance of a sustainable, prosperous, free constitutional Republic requires fidelity to the opposite— a regime of small, solvent government including on the Pentagon side of the Potomac. Accordingly, the sole end of foreign policy should be safeguarding the security and liberty of the homeland, not proctoring the governing etiquette of rulers halfway way around the globe that pose no military threat whatsoever to America’s homeland security.
Yet Washington has seen fit during the last decade to pump-in upwards of $40 billion of overt and covert military aid, economic support and humanitarian assistance to a plethora of opposition Syrian forces for no discernible reason of homeland security. To the contrary, the expenditure of all this treasure and political capital was designed for no purpose other than to effect Regime Change in Damascus and to eject the Assad government from its control over the what were the remaining white areas of the Syrian map below as of just a few weeks back.
Yet the color coded regions all around what is now the vacuum of Assad’s fall tell you all you need to know about the sheer folly of this enterprise and why in truth Washington has mid-wifed yet another failed state; and has done so once again on the pretext of fighting terrorism—this time the ragged band of ISIS jihadists who briefly planted their black flags and brutal rule in the dusty towns of the Upper Euphrates centered in Raqqah, as roughly depicted by the purple area of the map.
The truth, however, is that the white areas including the Damascus region previously controlled by the Assad government were the true bulwark against a resurgence of the ISIS head-choppers, who had emerged in 2013-2014 from the ashes of Washington’s failed regime change intervention in Iraq. So even if the choice was between the lesser of two evils, anyone with his head-screwed on straight could see that bolstering, or at least tacitly tolerating, the secularist, pluralist Alawite regime in Damascus was far preferable to the ISIS Caliphate fanatics.
Stated differently, one failed Regime Change fiasco in Iraq surely warranted second thoughts about continued pursuit of a second attempt at Regime Change next door in Syria. After all, the menace of ISIS which had afflicted eastern Syria was the spawn of Washington’s disastrous intervention against Saddam Hussein. Yet like in the case of Assad, Hussein had posed no threat to America’s homeland security whatsoever but was nevertheless treated to the “shock and awe” of massive military attack and the gallows because he was alleged to be a plundering tyrant who wouldn’t play nice with the greedy Emirs who ruled the shared deserts and oilfields next door.
Alas, the Empire First geniuses on the banks of the Potomac didn’t get any of this. Their swell plan was to get rid of both the ISIS jihadists and the Assad regime at the same time. But in attempting to do so they ended up creating two new militarized monsters out of the economic dislocations and tribal clashes that resulted from the very civil war they had unleashed.
To that end, the previous ISIS-ruled territory in purple is now controlled by the US funded Kurdish SDF militias (Syrian Democratic Forces). The latter, of course, are the mortal enemy of Washington’s ostensible NATO ally next door in Turkey, which had been fighting its own Kurdish insurgents for decades.
Indeed, owing to that threat, Turkey has supported and funded the anti-Kurd SNA (Syrian National Army), which occupies the border lands depicted in yellow on the map. A few years ago, however, the SNA was called the FSA (Free Syrian Army), which was a CIA-supported and operated brainchild of the late Senator John McCain, who never met a country in the middle east that he didn’t wish to invade and occupy.
Meanwhile, with two new US-funded militias competing for military dominance, the third Syrian anti-government force comprised of the jihadist factions hadn’t been eliminated, either. That latter illusion, of course, had been triumphally claimed by Trump when Washington bombed Raqqah and surrounding areas to smithereens in 2017, and also finished off its terrorist leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in 2019. Like the SNA, however, the jihadist contingent had simply shape-shifted. Twice.
What is today HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), which is ostensibly in control of the red-colored corridor from Aleppo down to Damascus, was previously known as the Nusra Front. That’s back when its current leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, was a strict jihadist.
In 2011 he had been sent to eastern Syria to foment an uprising by his mentor and terrorist, the aforementioned al-Baghdadi. Both had been graduates of what amounted to the massive prison-based training school for Sunni jihadists at Camp Bucca in Iraq, later dubbed as “America’s Jihadi University”. The latter 20,000-prisoner monstrosity had been stood up by the clueless proconsuls Washington had sent to Iraq after Saddam’s demise and who soon needed a massive human storage facility for the fruits of their misbegotten de-bathification campaign.
As it happened, by the end of the decade Washington had soured on its Iraq liberation enterprise and was attempting to extricate itself from its failed multi-trillion misadventure. In conjunction with this wind-down it undertook to substantially empty this bulging prison in what became known as the “Great Prison Release of 2009,” freeing 5,700 high-security detainees from Bucca Prison. Among these was Baghdadi and Julani.
While the former organized and led the Sunni uprising in Mosul and Anbar province of Western Iraq, the Nusra Front was established as a separate entity in Syria by al-Julani. Initially, it was an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq, but in April 2013 al-Baghdadi announced that the Nusra Front had merged with ISIS to form the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
However, al-Julani and the Nusra Front rejected this merger and went their separate way, taking on a role as an independent jihadist force based in western Syria with strongholds in Idlib and Aleppo. Thereafter his Nusra Front spearheaded the 2015 conquest of this region under the banner of Jaish al-Fatah (the Army of Conquest). The latter was, in turn, described at the time by Foreign Policy magazine as a wonderful “synergy” of jihadists and western arms.
Years later, US official Brett McGurk didn’t hesitate to label al-Julani’s Idlib base as “the largest Al-Qaeda safe haven since 9/11.” Of course, the crucial role of US weapons and strategic aid in fostering this jihadist success went unmentioned.
So why did the US provide what one analyst called a “cataract of weaponry” to Nusra Front, just the same? An August 2012 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, infamously written under the auspices of General Michael Flynn, let the cat out of the bag quite dramatically. It revealed, in fact, that the Washington neocons and hegemonists had determined to support the establishment of a “Salafist principality” in eastern Syria and western Iraq as part of the effort to depose president Bashar al-Assad and divide the country.
The DIA report said a radical religious mini-state exactly of the sort later established by ISIS as its “caliphate” was the US goal, even while admitting that the so-called Syrian revolution seeking to topple Assad’s government was being driven by “Salafists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and al-Qaeda.”
Indeed, as indicated above, the seeds of this Salafist principality had been planted when the then ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had dispatched Julani to Syria in August 2011. Prominent Lebanese journalist Radwan Mortada, who was embedded with Al-Qaeda fighters from Lebanon in Syria, met Julani in the central Syrian city of Homs at this time. Mortada informed his readers that Julani was being hosted by the Farouq Brigades, an FSA faction based in the city, which was a sectarian Salafist group that included fighters who had fought for Zarqawi’s brutal Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) after the US invasion.
That’s right. The current liberators of Syria were legatees of the brutes who were flushed out of the woodwork by Washington’s foolish “Shock and Awe” campaign in Iraq way back in 2003. And true to form, a few months after receiving his assignment from al-Baghdadi, Julani and his fighters entered the war against the Syrian government by carrying out multiple terror attacks. In Damascus during December 2011 Julani sent suicide bombers to target the Syrian government’s General Security Directorate, killing 44, including civilians and security personnel. Two weeks later, in January 2012, Julani sent another suicide bomber to detonate explosives near a bus in the Midan district of Damascus, killing some 26 people.
These bloody doings coincident with the establishment of the “Support Front for the People of the Levant,” or the Nusra Front, was revealed after a videotape was provided to journalist Mortada showing Julani and other masked men announcing the group’s existence and claiming responsibility for the attacks. Thus, such is the lineage of the leader and group which purportedly “liberated” Syria from the clutches of the Assad family.
In any event, when the Raqqah-based epicenter of ISIL was demolished after 2017, the Nusra Front hung on, changing its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in October 2017. This rebranding was part of an effort to distance itself from al-Qaeda and to restructure the group by merging with several other jihadist factions.
For several years HTS remained contained in its narrow Idlib territorial base, even as it was assaulted by constant attacks from the forces of Assad and his Russian allies in the area. In effect, they were doing god’s work taking on the real enemy of civilization.
Nevertheless, al-Julani persevered, recently reinventing himself as Ahmed al-Sharaa—which is his real name. He now wears an even shorter beard than in the second picture below and sometimes even dons a tie, while claiming to be a “diversity friendly” pluralist friend of all Syrians—Christians, Alawites, Druze etc. That is, the very former infidel enemies of the Caliphate who al-Julani had previously decreed were to be put to death on the ancient orders of the Prophet himself.
In short, Syria is now destined to become even a worse mess than Libya became after it was liberated by Hilary Clinton in 2011. As is evident from the above, you actually need a roster-sheet to even begin to grasp the madness now unfolding there, but the always astute Moon of Alabama has summarized the state of play as well as can be done:
It is now highly likely that the country will fall apart. Outside and inside actors will try to capture and/or control as many parts of the cadaver as each of them can.
Years of chaos and strife will follow from that.
Israel is grabbing another large amount of Syrian land. It has taken control of the Syrian city of Quneitra, along with the towns of Al-Qahtaniyah and Al-Hamidiyah in the Quneitra region. It has also advanced into the Syrian Mount Hermon and is now positioned just 30 kilometers from (and above) the Syrian capital.
It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks.
Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold.
The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state “from the river to the sea”.
Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the ‘Syrian National Army’ (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria.
There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.
Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do.
A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan’s SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.
Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hard-line Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin. Will al-Golani be able to control the sectarian urges of the comrades when these start to plunder the Shia and Christian shrines of Damascus?
During the last years Russia was less invested in the Assad government than it seemed. It knew that Assad had become a mostly useless partner. The Russia Mediterranean base in Khmeimim in Latakia province is its springboard into Africa. There will be U.S. pressure on any new leadership in Syria to kick the Russians out. However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.
With the fall of Syria Iran has lost the major link in its axis of resistance against Israel. Its forward defenses, provided by Hizbullah in Lebanon, are now in ruins.
Then again, the question recurs. What exactly was the point of wrecking another tiny, mostly land-locked country in the middle east with a population of just 20 million people, a GDP of only $40 billion, a per capita income of barely $2,000, no significant natural resources beyond a 2.5 billion barrel pittance of oil reserves (equal to about 30 days of global oil production), no significant steel or other industrial capacity, no tech sector, no capability to project any military power whatsoever beyond its own borders and a consumer sector so devastated by the Washington-instigated civil wars that total auto sales in 2022 were 478 units?
That’s right. No zeros missing!
At the end of the day, not even Washington is stupid enough to waste $40 billion on that. What has really been going on, therefore, is that by the lights of the Empire Firsters Assad had to be removed because he had the wrong allies and the wrong neighbors. The demonization about his tyranny and plunder was just a cover story for the real objective, which was undermining his Iranian ally.
As a minority Alawite, which is a branch of Shiite Islam, Assad had aligned with his Shiite kin in Tehran and permitted Syrian territory to be used by the latter to transport arms and materiale to Iran’s Hezbollah allies in southern Lebanon. In turn, that was fully within Syria’s sovereign rights—especially since Hezbollah played a leading role in the coalition government of Lebanon. So destroying this Shiite nexus was the real reason for the relentless Washington war on Assad, and its incessant embrace and financing of all of the unsavory flotsam and jetsam which percolated up from Syria’s devastating civil war.
Still again, however, there is no way that the homeland security of America was imperiled either by the Shiite-based Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance or the fact that one sovereign state member of that alliance (Syria) permitted its territory to used to transport weaponry and materiale. The only possible reason for Washington’s two decade folly in Syria, therefore, is the proposition that Iran is an existential threat to the liberty and security of the American homeland—way over here 6,400 miles from Tehran.
That’s a ludicrous joke, to say the least. Iran’s GDP of $400 billion is equal to just 1.5% or five days worth of US GDP. Likewise, its $25 billion military budget is just 2.5% of the $1 trillion monster domiciled in the Pentagon.
Even more to the point, Iran’s tiny Navy consists of 67 mostly coastal patrol boats and fast attack crafts, none of which can operate much outside of the Persian Gulf. Also, it has no long-range aircraft and its longest range missile, the Soumar cruise missile, is non-nuclear and has a maximum range of 1850 miles. That is to say, it can barely reach the European parts of the Mediterranean basin, and can’t hit at all cities like Paris, Berlin, Copenhagen, London, Stockholm or Oslo—-to say nothing of even remotely landing on our side of the Atlantic moat.
Finally, Iran is not a rogue nuclear power or wanna be nuclear threat—even according to the 17 Deep State intelligence agencies which write the so-called NIEs or National Intelligence Estimates. These NIEs have said time and again that Iran abandoned even its nuclear research program in 2003, abided by the Obama nuke deal to the letter prior to Trump’s unilaterally shit-canning it in 2018, and even now is only enriching modest amounts of uranium to legal levels as is its prerogative as a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
In short, Iran is Bibi Netanyahu’s political pinata, not an enemy of America’s liberty and security.
If Washington were not in the Empire First business and, most especially, not in the entangling alliance business in which allies and clients drag America into conflicts that have no direct bearing on its homeland security, Washington would have all along been following Thomas Jefferson’s advice: That is, it would have pursued peaceful commerce with Iran and Syria, not punished them with crippling sanctions and endless attacks on their own sovereignty and right to pursue foreign policy arrangements by their own best lights.
Finally, what would a legitimate America First foreign policy now do?
Simple.
It would close the middle east bases, send the Fifth Fleet back to homeport in America, lift the sanctions on Iran and Syria and resume peaceful commerce with one and all willing nations in the region.
* * *
The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing. It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s. Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 23:30 - AI Is A National Security Imperative
AI Is A National Security Imperative
Authored by Monica Farrow via American Greatness,
Many people forget that the Department of Defense conceived the internet as a secure and dynamic communication tool. Still, it took the private sector to turn it into an economic powerhouse that has revolutionized commerce and political discussion and transformed how people connect, work, and share information globally. Many argue that artificial intelligence’s impact on our society and economy will be greater than that of the internet, both economically and in national security. This public-private partnership can unlock AI’s potential, allowing the nation to protect itself while enriching itself.
That’s why the Department of Defense, which has said that AI “will change society and, ultimately, the character of war,” wants to expand the use of artificial intelligence (AI). This venture will advance America’s defense and ensure the United States remains the world leader in technological modernization. However, while the Defense Department desperately seeks to develop and expand AI, the Department of Justice has declared war on it. It is taking legal actions that threaten to smother the industry, which is still in its infancy.
AI technology is already touching every facet of modern life. For national defense, AI has the potential to analyze vast amounts of intelligence in real time, assist in decision-making, and help with battlefield strategy. The Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for nuclear matters recently noted that AI’s adoption will be a “considerable advancement in our ability to safeguard critical assets.”
The Defense Department’s investment in AI is also about maintaining parity—or ideally, superiority—against adversaries like China and Russia, who aggressively pursue their AI initiatives.
Beijing has made no secret of its ambition to become the global leader in AI and is funneling billions into various military and civilian applications.
It aims to lead the world in AI by 2030 so it can obtain “intelligence supremacy,” allowing it to leapfrog the technological capabilities of the United States. If the U.S. fails to match or surpass these efforts, it risks falling behind in the arms race of the 21st century.
AI is not just about military applications.
The technology underpins advancements in healthcare, finance, transportation, and countless other industries and has been called the “most important technology of any lifetime.” Leading in AI ensures that American companies drive innovation, which creates jobs and fosters economic growth. Just as the internet was initially incubated by research and development for military applications, the same holds for AI. We need a robust partnership between government initiatives and private sector innovation to secure America’s AI development and application leadership.
Many industries, such as tourism, travel, and hospitality, have adopted AI and are already implementing it. Hotels and airlines employ AI algorithms for dynamic pricing, which adapts rates based on up-to-the-minute supply and demand analysis. When demand is low, AI suggests lower pricing to help fill the capacity of hotels and airline flights.
Yet, despite already being in everyday use, AI has come under fire from government regulators and bureaucrats.
A federal court case in Nevada has become ground zero in this fight as hotels that use AI to offer pricing options are being sued with the wholesale support of the Department of Justice. Similarly, the DOJ has targeted RealPage, accusing the company’s software, which assists homeowners and landlords in determining what price to offer customers, as being illegal.
These actions by the DOJ are incredibly short-sighted. Any business model that suggests both price reductions and price increases tied to supply and demand are the signs of a healthy, competitive marketplace is all about, not an antitrust violation.
If the DOJ’s continued actions against algorithmic AI are successful, their actions risk setting a dangerous precedent by discouraging industries from leveraging AI’s full potential. Who will invest in technology when it risks potential litigation by the federal government?
The stakes are too high for the United States to fail. If China dominates AI development, U.S. companies can become sidelined in global markets, and American workers could lose jobs in cutting-edge industries, not to mention watch ethical standards get shaped by regimes that prioritize state control over personal freedoms.
AI is a foundational piece of our future vitality. It makes no sense for one government agency, the Department of Defense, to invest heavily in technology while another, the Department of Justice, threatens to smother it in the crib. Our security and prosperity depend on AI’s growth, adoption, and use. A cohesive national strategy is essential, where innovation is nurtured, not stifled, ensuring that AI can flourish to secure America’s future economically and militarily.
* * *
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 23:00 - Finnish Commandos Seize Russia-Linked Ship After Undersea Cable Cut
Finnish Commandos Seize Russia-Linked Ship After Undersea Cable Cut
Finland has seized the ship which is being accused of cutting of an undersea cable connecting electricity to Estonia, allegedly on behalf of Russia, given that the vessel was carrying Russian oil. Finnish authorities and Western officials have described the damage to the Estlink 2 electricity cable as the result of “aggravated criminal mischief”.
EU officials have characterized the incident as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare against NATO, with a European Commission statement describing the cable severing as “the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure.”
The vessel in question was observed traversing the same area where the cable damage occurred near in time to the incident. Four additional telecom cables were disrupted – one linking Finland and Germany and three between Finland and Estonia.
Finland’s coast guard boarded the suspect vessel on Thursday:
Finnish police said in a statement that the coastguard crew boarded an oil tanker in Finnish waters early on Thursday. Authorities named the vessel as the Eagle S, and said it was registered in the Cook Islands in the South Pacific.
When it was detained, the ship was sailing from Russia’s Saint Petersburg to Port Said in Egypt, according to online marine tracking website, MarineTraffic.
According to MarineTraffic, the ship was owned by United Arab Emirates-based vessel management company, Caravella.
The European Commission in its statement additionally accused the Eagle S ship of being part of Russia’s energy sanctions-busting ‘shadow fleet’.
“The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia’s war budget,” it said. “We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet.”
There are initial reports from European sources alleging the discovery of Russian intelligence-linked surveillance equipment found onboard the vessel:
“Hi-tech” Russian signals intelligence equipment was reportedly carried by the tanker Eagle S, currently in custody after reportedly cutting the Estlink-2 cable in the Baltic, per Lloyd’s List. “They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” Lloyd’s List was told.
Finnish Special Forces board and take over a ship in “Konflikti” miniseries.
Very similar action was seen on EAGLE S vessel on Christmas Day. pic.twitter.com/qmVKbLjB5f
— Tomi 🇺🇦🇫🇮 (@TallbarFIN) December 27, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Data from the ship-tracking website MarineTraffic shows the vessel slowed down at the time the 658 megawatt (MW) Estlink 2 power interconnector was disrupted. The tanker was transiting the Baltics on its way from St. Petersburg to Egypt at the time, on Christmas day.
MarineTraffic data also shows the Finnish Border Guard’s patrol vessel Turva escorted the tanker to waters off Porkkalaniemi, a peninsula on the Gulf of Finland, on Wednesday night, before it was boarded and seized by Coast Guard commandos the next day.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 22:30 - The Spies Who Hate Us
The Spies Who Hate Us
Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via the Brownstone Institute,
Brownstone Institute has been tracking a little-known federal agency for years. It is part of the Department of Homeland Security created after 9-11. It is called the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency or CISA. It was created in 2018 out of a 2017 executive order that seemed to make sense. It was a mandate to secure American digital infrastructure against foreign attack and infiltration.
And yet during the Covid year, it assumed three huge jobs. It was the agency responsible for dividing the workforce between essential and nonessential. It led the way on censorship efforts. And it handled election security for 2020 and 2022, which, if you understand the implications of that, should make you spit out your coffee upon learning.
More than any other agency, it became the operationally relevant government during this period. It was the agency that worked through third parties and packet-switching networking to take down your Facebook group. It worked through all kinds of intermediaries to keep a lid on Twitter. It managed LinkedIn, Instagram, and most of the other mainstream platforms in a way that made you feel like your opinions were too crazy to see the light of day.
The most astonishing court document just came out. It was unearthed in the course of litigation undertaken by America First Legal. It has no redaction. It is a reverse chronicle of most of what they did from February 2020 until last year. It is 500 pages long. The version available now takes an age to download, so we shrunk it and put it on fast view so you can see the entire thing.
What you discover is this. Everything that the intelligence agencies did not like during this period – doubting lockdowns, dismissing masking, questioning the vaccine, and so on – was targeted through a variety of cutouts among NGOs, universities, and private-sector fact-checkers. It was all labeled as Russian and Chinese propaganda so as to fit in with CISA’s mandate. Then it was throttled and taken down. It managed remarkable feats such as getting WhatsApp to stop allowing bulk sharing.
It gets crazier. CISA documented that it deprecated the study of Jay Bhattacharya from May 2020 that showed that Covid was far more widespread and less dangerous than the CDC was claiming, thus driving down the Infection Fatality Rate within the range of a bad flu. This was at a time when it was widely assumed to be the black death. CISA weighed in to say that the study was faulty and tore down posts about it.
The granularity of their work is shocking, naming Epoch Times, Unz.org, and a whole series of websites as disinformation, often with a crazy spin that identified them with Russian propaganda, white supremacy, terrorist activity, or some such. Reading through the document conjures up memories of Lenin and Stalin smearing the Kulaks or Hitler on the Jews. Everything that is contrary to government claims becomes foreign infiltration or insurrectionist or otherwise seditious.
It’s a very strange world these people inhabit. Over time, of course, the agency ended up demonizing much authentic science plus a majority of public opinion. And yet they stayed at it, fully convinced of the rightness of their cause and the justness of their methods. It seems never to have occurred to this agency that we have a First Amendment that is part of our laws. It never enters the discussion at all.
AFL summarizes the document as follows.
- CISA’s Countering Foreign Influence Task Force (CFITF) relied on the Censorship Industrial Complex to inform its censorship of alleged foreign disinformation narratives regarding COVID-19.
- Unelected bureaucrats at CISA weaponized the homeland security apparatus, including FEMA, to monitor COVID-19 speech dissenting from “expert” medical guidance, including President Trump’s comments about taking Hydroxychloroquine in 2020. Many of these “false” narratives later turned out to be true, calling into question the government’s ability to identify “misinformation,” regardless of its authority to do so.
- To determine what was “foreign disinformation,” CISA relied on the Censorship Industrial Complex’s usual suspects (Atlantic Council DFR Lab, Media Matters, Stanford Internet Observatory) — even those discredited for erroneously attributing domestic content to foreign sources (Alliance for Securing Democracy). CISA even relied on foreign government authorities (EU vs. Disinfo) and foreign government-linked groups (CCDH, GDI) that advocated for the demonetization and deplatforming of individual Americans to monitor and target constitutionally protected speech by American citizens.
For years, this story of censorship has unfolded in shocking ways. This document among tens of thousands of pages is surely among the most incriminating. And discussing it is apparently still taboo because the Subcommittee report on Covid never once mentions CISA. Why might that be?
In the strange world of D.C., CISA might be considered untouchable because it was staffed out of the National Security Agency which itself is a spinoff of the Central Intelligence Agency. Thus does its activities generally fall under the category of classified. And its many functioning assets in the civilian sector are legally bound to keep their relationships and connections private.
Thank goodness at least one judge believed otherwise and forced the agency to cough it up.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 22:00 - China Dominates As The World's Top Car Producer
China Dominates As The World’s Top Car Producer
Last year, global vehicle production reached 93.5 million units, representing a 2% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and a significant 17% rise from 2022.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the share of motor vehicles produced by the top 30 countries in 2023.
The figures come from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, and includes both passenger and commercial vehicles.
Which Country Produced the Most Cars in 2023?
Below, we show the total number of motor vehicles produced by each of the top 30 countries, as well as their share of global production.
Rank Country/Region Region Total Car Production Share of Total Production 1 🇨🇳 China Asia 30,160,966 32.2% 2 🇺🇸 USA Americas 10,611,555 11.3% 3 🇯🇵 Japan Asia 8,997,440 9.6% 4 🇮🇳 India Asia 5,851,507 6.3% 5 🇰🇷 South Korea Asia 4,243,597 4.5% 6 🇩🇪 Germany Europe 4,109,371 4.4% 7 🇲🇽 Mexico Americas 4,002,047 4.3% 8 🇪🇸 Spain Europe 2,451,221 2.6% 9 🇧🇷 Brazil Americas 2,324,838 2.5% 10 🇹🇭 Thailand Asia 1,841,663 2.0% 11 🇨🇦 Canada Americas 1,553,026 1.7% 12 🇫🇷 France Europe 1,505,076 1.6% 13 🇹🇷 Turkey Asia 1,468,393 1.6% 14 🇨🇿 Czech Republic Europe 1,404,501 1.5% 15 🇮🇩 Indonesia Asia 1,395,717 1.5% 16 🇸🇰 Slovakia Europe 1,080,000 1.2% 17 🇬🇧 United Kingdom Europe 1,025,474 1.1% 18 🇮🇹 Italy Europe 880,085 0.9% 19 🇲🇾 Malaysia Asia 774,600 0.8% 20 🇷🇺 Russia Europe 729,864 0.8% 21 🇿🇦 South Africa Africa 633,337 0.7% 22 🇵🇱 Poland Europe 612,882 0.7% 23 🇦🇷 Argentina Americas 610,725 0.7% 24 🇲🇦 Morocco Africa 535,825 0.6% 25 🇷🇴 Romania Europe 513,050 0.5% 26 🇭🇺 Hungary Europe 507,225 0.5% 27 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan Asia 425,876 0.5% 28 🇧🇪 Belgium Europe 332,103 0.4% 29 🇵🇹 Portugal Europe 318,231 0.3% 30 🌍 Others – 2,646,404 2.8% China dominated global car production in 2023, accounting for almost a third of all cars produced last year. The country currently produces and exports more cars than any other country in the world, as of December 2024.
The country currently has the capacity to produce more than twice its domestic demand for cars, freeing up a significant portion of its car production to be allocated for export.
The Chinese government has massively invested in ramping up domestic automotive production, and specifically its burgeoning electric vehicle sector.
The government’s strategic initiatives, such as “Made in China 2025,” have prioritized electric vehicle manufacturing, leading to substantial growth in this area.
The Best of the Rest
Following behind China is the United States, with 11.3% of the global share. Elon Musk’s Tesla is currently the most valuable automaker in the world, with a market cap of over $1.4 trillion, as of Dec. 24, 2024.
Tesla shares hit a record high following Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. The American electric vehicle company dominates the industry, representing nearly half of the market capitalization among global automakers, with a valuation exceeding the combined worth of the next 29 car manufacturers.
Japan ranks third at 9.6% of global car production, bolstered by legacy carmakers like Toyota and Honda.
To learn more about global car production, check out this graphic that breaks down the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) industry by automaker.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 21:30 - Sheriffs Say They Can Help ICE In Trump's Mass Deportation Plan
Sheriffs Say They Can Help ICE In Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan
Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,
Sheriffs will likely play a key role in helping federal agents secure the border and deport illegal immigrants under President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump made mass deportation of illegal immigrants a key part of his campaign to win a second term as almost 11 million people flooded into the country illegally since 2021.
The president-elect’s incoming border czar, Tom Homan, has signaled a new era of federal, state, and local cooperation when it comes to deporting illegal immigrants.
Homan, the former acting head of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), indicated he will first target those who have criminal convictions or are wanted for crimes.
“The nation wants a safe country. We’ve had enough crime in this country,” Homan said during a stop at the Texas border in November.
Sheriffs in the nation’s 3,100 counties could play an essential role in helping ICE to identify and detain illegal immigrants, said Sam Bushman, CEO of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association (CSPOA), a conservative organization that opposes “unconstitutional” government overreach.
As chief law enforcement officers in their counties, elected sheriffs have more latitude than appointed police chiefs. They have authority over criminal investigations, serving warrants, managing county jails, and providing court security within the county.
Bushman foresees cooperation between willing county, state, and federal authorities to deport illegal immigrants, possibly through the creation of a new coordination agency or command center.
“I think that we could create an organization that communicates with this trifecta, and that would be very effective,” he said.
Richard Mack, a former Arizona sheriff and founder of CSPOA, has been in contact with Homan and believes sheriffs will be an integral part of border security and deportation efforts because of their unique understanding of their jurisdictions.
“Who in this country knows their counties better than the sheriff?” he asked.
Because of their local knowledge, sheriffs are in a unique position to help make deportation safer and easier, Mack told The Epoch Times.
Regardless of politics, sheriffs must protect their constituents from crime and criminals, both tied to illegal immigration in terms of drug and human smuggling along with violent gang activity, he said.
Policy experts have suggested that the federal government could deputize local law enforcement under its 287(g) program to aid ICE because the agency likely doesn’t have the manpower to do so alone.
The 287(g) program currently provides a framework of cooperation wherein local jails work with ICE to identify illegal immigrants as they are booked for a crime. ICE and designated local law enforcement can then hold that inmate for up to an additional 48 hours so that ICE can take custody of the inmate.
Homan has touted the program as a safe deportation pipeline, as ICE officers can pick up deportees within the safety of a jail setting, rather than having to organize an operation out in the community.
ICE has about 20,000 employees, including support personnel. ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) has 6,100 deportation officers and more than 750 enforcement removal assistants who are assigned to 24 field offices, according to an agency website.
Former Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol Rodney Scott, who served under both Trump and Biden, said in a previous interview with The Epoch Times that Trump could expand the 287(g) program to help with deportations, as he did during his first term.
Scott was recently nominated by Trump to serve as the incoming Customs and Border Protection commissioner.
He said the 287(g) program also allows the creation of a task force and hybrid model that would enable local and state law enforcement to arrest illegal immigrants.
In the blue state of Maryland, Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins, a longtime Republican, recalls when the task force model was operational in 2008.
Frederick County Sheriff Chuck Jenkins at a meeting about illegal immigration issues in Bethesda, Md., on Oct. 17, 2017. Benjamin Chasteen/The Epoch Times
“We had deputies on the street that could work at the direction of ICE and with ICE to take into custody people who had deportation warrants and so forth,” Jenkins told The Epoch Times.
Reinstating the task force model would help expedite the deportation of criminals in the country illegally, he said.
The Trump administration could also send representatives to local sheriff departments to recruit them to join the program, he said.
“ICE can’t do it alone, or certainly not enough,” Jenkins said. “We need to be a force multiplier for them.”
Tying federal grant money to sheriff department cooperation with ICE would likely convince many to come on board, he said.
Even if sheriffs don’t participate in arresting illegal immigrants, they could help in other ways, such as providing transportation and logistical support and workspace for ICE, he said.
Jenkins said Frederick County’s jail-based detainer program has been successful, resulting in the removal of about 2,000 illegal immigrant criminals in the county.
Under the 287(g) program, sheriff’s office employees are trained to file a detainer and prepare the paperwork under the supervision of ICE in an effort to streamline the process, he said.
Illegal immigrants stand along the U.S.-Mexico border as they await processing by the U.S. Border Patrol in Jacumba Hot Springs, Calif., on Dec. 1, 2023. Mario Tama/Getty Images
San Diego County Sheriff Kelly Martinez, who serves in the nation’s fifth most populous county, has vowed to defy a new county policy to limit cooperation with federal deportation efforts.
Earlier this month, San Diego County supervisors voted to ban its sheriff department from working with ICE on the federal agency’s enforcement of civil immigration laws, including those that allow for deportations.
California law generally prohibits cooperation but makes exceptions for those convicted of certain violent crimes.
Martinez, whose office is nonpartisan but considers herself a Democrat, said she wouldn’t honor the new policy and that the county government doesn’t oversee her office.
“Current state law strikes the right balance between limiting local law enforcement’s cooperation with immigration authorities, ensuring public safety, and building community trust,” Martinez said.
In the blue state of Michigan, Barry County Sheriff Dar Lief said it is important to remove violent criminals from the streets.
“I’m on board with that,” he told The Epoch Times.
Lief echoed the belief of Trump and his surrogates during the presidential campaign that many of the illegal immigrants coming into the country were from prison systems or asylums.
“Nonetheless, our governor here asked residents to take in illegal immigrants,” he said. “Who are you opening up your house to?”
Lief said he warned the citizens of Barry County against taking in illegal immigrants, which Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called “new Americans,” because there was no guarantee they were properly vetted.
Not all blue states or city leaders are against Trump’s deportation plan to remove criminal illegal immigrants.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams met with Homan recently to discuss deporting illegal immigrants who commit violent crimes in the Democrat-run city.
“We will not be a safe haven for those who commit violent acts. We don’t do it for those who are citizens, and we’re not going to do it for those who are undocumented,” Adams said during a press conference.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams speaks at a media availability event after meeting with border czar Tom Homan in New York City, on Dec. 12, 2024. Oliver Mantyk/The Epoch Times
Adams said law-abiding illegal immigrants are welcome in the city. Still, it was a “terrible mistake” to allow those in the country unlawfully to commit violent crimes repeatedly, especially those associated with gangs.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said in November during a press conference that she supports “legal” immigrants, including asylum-seekers, but not criminals here illegally or those committing crimes.
“Someone breaks the law—I‘ll be the first one to call up ICE and say, ’Get them out of here,’” she said.
Homan said blue city officials don’t have to cooperate, but he has repeatedly warned them not to stand in his way.
Homan recently announced he would begin deportations in Chicago, criticizing Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for resisting the removal of criminal immigrants.
“If he impedes us, if he knowingly harbors and conceals an illegal alien, I will prosecute him,” Homan said of the Chicago mayor.
Tom Homan, tapped to be President-elect Donald Trump’s border czar, addressed Operation Lone Star members at the Texas border on Nov. 26, 2024. Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times
Texas Model
Homan said during a visit to the Texas border town of Eagle Pass before Thanksgiving that the state’s operation to stop illegal immigration could become a national model.
He praised Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s Operation Lone Star, a $10-billion border mission to string razor wire along the border, place buoy barriers in the Rio Grande, help build a border wall, and bus illegal immigrants to sanctuary cities.
The operation consists of Department of Public Safety law enforcement and Texas National Guard members.
The program also focuses on arresting illegal immigrants for trespassing on private ranchland along the border—offering a unique roadmap for how counties could help deport illegal immigrants.
Brent Smith, the county attorney for Kinney County, has plenty of experience dealing with illegal immigrants in his county, which sits along the Texas–Mexico border.
Kinney County has prosecuted the largest number of illegal immigrants for trespass and related misdemeanors under Operation Lone Star.
In 2019 and 2020, the small, rural county dealt with just 254 and 132 misdemeanor cases, respectively, mostly involving U.S. citizens.
The U.S. citizen caseload has remained somewhat constant, but because of illegal immigration, the total number of misdemeanor cases shot up to 6,799 in 2022 and 5,826 in 2023, according to numbers obtained from the county attorney’s office.
Smith told The Epoch Times that trespassing arrests in Kinney County under Operation Lone Star offered valuable lessons on how to run a border security initiative.
At first, funding went to provide law enforcement, but Smith said it became clear that there needed to be more funding for the entire county justice system for prosecutors, public defenders, clerks, and judges to process illegal immigrants charged with trespassing.
“What I foresee is some very strong 287(g) agreements being entered into, and state and local law enforcement actually becoming an arm of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration enforcement,” he said.
Law enforcement responds to a crash and fire of a suspected smuggling vehicle near Brackettville, Texas. Courtesy of Kinney County Sheriff’s Office
He said that after undergoing a DHS training program, local officers are considered immigration officers under the supervision of an ICE agent.
He pointed to former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was known for implementing the 287(g) task force successfully to arrest illegal immigrants in Arizona but came under fire during the Obama administration.
Maricopa County’s 287(g) program was canceled in 2011 after a Department of Justice investigation accused the sheriff of racial profiling.
In 2012, the Obama administration discontinued the task force and hybrid models of the program altogether.
Trump expanded the program in his first term to 150 agreements with local law enforcement and broadened the removal criteria to include misdemeanors.
Under the Biden administration, new 287(g) agreements were paused.
Smith said that once Trump ends the Biden administration’s catch-and-release policy, there will be more “gotaways,” which will require a shift in resources to focus on apprehension instead of processing those claiming asylum.
Money—or the lack of it—will be an essential tool in deportation and border security, he said.
On the state level, he has been discussing a bill with Texas lawmakers that would require sheriffs to apply for 287(g) agreements before receiving state grant funding.
The same principle could be applied to federal grant money for cities such as Chicago, he said.
“How much is your political leanings worth to you? Is it worth $1,000, or $100,000, or $2 million?” he said. “We’re going to find out.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 21:00 - HTS Names UN-Designated Terrorist As Syria's New Intelligence Chief
HTS Names UN-Designated Terrorist As Syria’s New Intelligence Chief
On Thursday, Syria’s de facto authorities appointed former Al-Qaeda commander and Nusra Front co-founder Anas Hassan Khattab as the head of the country’s general intelligence agency.
Khattab, also known as Abu Ahmed Hudood, was blacklisted as a “terrorist” by the UN Security Council in September 2014 for his close association with Al-Qaeda.
Anas Hassan Khattab, also known as Abu Ahmed Hudood According to the listing, for several years, he was involved “in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of” and “otherwise supporting acts or activities of” the Nusra Front. This Al-Qaeda offshoot was rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017.
Khattab served as the administrative emir of the Nusra Front as of early 2014 and was part of its shura council by mid-2013. He was also tasked with selecting personal bodyguards for HTS leader and Syria’s de facto ruler Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who dropped his nom de guerre earlier this month and now goes by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa.
In recent years, Khattab oversaw general security operations in Idlib. His involvement in intelligence gathering dates back to the period when HTS consolidated control over northern Syria with Turkish support; during this time, he managed surveillance of covert networks along the borders of HTS-controlled areas.
Syria’s new intel chief was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in 2012 for his ties to Al-Qaeda.
Khattab is the latest HTS authority to be granted a top post in the so-called “transitional government” following the success of the Turkish and US-backed coup against the government of ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
Last week, the General Command of the Armed Opposition Factions appointed Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, a founding member of Al-Qaeda in Syria, as the new caretaker foreign minister. This was followed by the appointment of Murhaf Abu Qasra, a top HTS leader known by his assumed name Abu Hassan 600, as defense minister.
It must have been a tense meeting yesterday in Damascus between HTS chief Jolani and the head of Iraqi intelligence. Especially for the Iraqi delegation a hard pill to swallow as Jolani before his time in Syria was in Iraq with Zarqawi blowing up Iraqis. pic.twitter.com/mojl2jTmEd
— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) December 27, 2024
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As HTS continues to consolidate power with the full support of western nations, clashes have broken out in western Syria between the remnants of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and HTS-led extremists.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 20:30 - The Work Visa Debate: Not All Immigration Is Bad, But Focus On Americans First
The Work Visa Debate: Not All Immigration Is Bad, But Focus On Americans First
After Donald Trump’s overwhelming election victory in November the nation is adjusting to the reality that the mass immigration policies of the political left are about to be reversed. Not just ended, but turned back. This means mass deportations of millions of illegals and far more scrutiny on existing temporary visa programs. The logistics of such an unprecedented effort require intensive planning and a lot of debate.
There is a contingent of MAGA that wants a total shutdown of migrant activity and a moratorium on work visas. For how long? No one seems to know, exactly, but it’s a scorched earth response to the Biden Administration’s excessive abuses of H-1B programs (and similar labor programs) to sneak millions of third world migrants into the country and label them “legal”.
Biden’s free pass for Haitians and Venezuelans, for example, was introduced at a time when the border crisis was hitting the mainstream media feeds and the public realized how bad the situation actually was. Biden and the Democrats offered Haitians and others temporary work visas and created a loophole, allowing the visas to be extended for years. In other words, Biden tried to reduce the number of border encounters by offering millions of illegals a backdoor into the US through work programs.
The third worlders still get into the country and Biden can claim illegal immigration is going down. The longer migrants are able to stay in the US on visas, the easier it is for them to get permanent residency. This is called “Labor Certification” and it’s the first step towards a Green Card. Because of the many loopholes associated with visa programs, Americans are now highly suspicious of any migration to “fill holes in the labor pool”.
On the other side, some in MAGA want to end illegal immigration while increasing legal immigration of skilled workers.
In other words, attract the best and brightest from around the globe and bring them here so that our competitors don’t get them first.
The threat of a complete shut down of all immigration, including skilled workers, has the tech industry concerned. Elon Musk chimed in on the H-1B issue recently and called for more foreign engineers to be allowed work status in the US. Some people agree, while many others are in an uproar, calling Musk a “traitor”.
There is a permanent shortage of excellent engineering talent. It is the fundamental limiting factor in Silicon Valley.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2024
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No, we need more like double that number yesterday!
The number of people who are super talented engineers AND super motivated in the USA is far too low.
Think of this like a pro sports team: if you want your TEAM to win the championship, you need to recruit top talent wherever…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2024
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To be fair to Musk, he would know better than most what the deficiencies are in the STEM labor market in America given his industry focus. The fact is, not all immigration is bad immigration and going scorched earth on work visas might be a net negative to the US in the short term (perhaps even the long term). It should be noted that a lot of skilled immigrants come from Europe, Australia, the UK, Canada and other western nations, not just places like India or China.
Others argue that America is not a sports team or a company, it’s a home. People believe the system is inviting foreign workers into the US without giving a fair shot to native born Americans. The question is, do such American STEM workers exist in numbers large enough to fill industry needs? And, if not, what’s the solution?
Vivek Ramaswamy has chimed in on the issue via X, suggesting that there isn’t an intelligence deficiency in the US, there’s an educational and institutional deficiency:
“The reason top tech companies often hire foreign-born & first-generation engineers over “native” Americans isn’t because of an innate American IQ deficit (a lazy & wrong explanation). A key part of it comes down to the c-word: culture.
Tough questions demand tough answers & if we’re really serious about fixing the problem, we have to confront the TRUTH: Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long (at least since the 90s and likely longer). That doesn’t start in college, it starts YOUNG. A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers.”
This is essentially the same argument that conservatives have been making for many years; the decline in the American educational system, especially in STEM fields, is legendary at this point, along with the overall decline in culture.
Vivek might be a little behind the times on the issue – Even athletic excellence in the US is no longer culturally venerated. The problem is mediocrity in every area of life. The most popular career choice for Gen Z is to become a “YouTube star”. No kid wants to be an astronaut anymore. There are some very smart people out there on YouTube, but no society can survive on a labor force full of wannabe “influencers”.
That said, US trust in the immigration system has been broken and even Vivek is receiving considerable blowback for his defense of H-1B visas. A common counter to Vivek’s position is the claim that much of the “skilled labor” coming from countries like India is actually mediocre labor that does the job (barely) for cheaper wages while replacing better qualified Americans. Whether or not this is true on a wider scale needs to be investigated.
As usual, whenever there is a divisive issue causing internal conflict and debate among conservative groups there are doom mongers that dance around the edges and act as if the entire movement is suddenly fracturing. Conservatives have never agreed on solutions – This is normal. They are not a hive mind like the political left, which is a good thing. Such debates are a sign of a healthy political process.
What we really have here is an artificially created either/or scenario; skilled labor shortages should be treated as a “why not do both” scenario.
First and foremost, Americans want actual proof of these labor shortages. They’ve heard stories for years but the proof is less accessible. What if tech companies and others in need of STEM labor were to engage the public in a large scale national labor fair? It sounds cheesy, but consider for a moment that the vast majority of companies today handle all their hiring through online cattle markets that often give job seekers the runaround.
There is almost zero human interaction and no confirmation that a job was ever filled. There are companies that post fake job listings to make it appear as though they are growing, to make existing employees feel as though they can be replaced and to make existing employees think their extreme work load will soon be alleviated by new talent. This practice has stunted the stats on the labor market.
Nationwide job fairs require money to set up and companies have to put people on standby to talk to prospective employees. There is energy and a sense of urgency involved. If skilled labor is truly hard to find, then Elon Musk and other industry leaders should have no problem putting some capital into a physical and interactive job fair – A national search for American talent in STEM in which workers talk to employers face-to-face instead of being filtered by websites and algorithms.
It might even be prudent to make such labor searches a requirement for large companies before they’re allowed to bring over migrant workers through visa programs.
If the shortage is real then it will be obvious from the lack of participation on the side of job seekers or the lack of qualifications in their resumes. Then, those within MAGA that oppose migrant visas will have to admit that the demand is legitimate and that the only option, in the short term, is to bring in foreign labor.
In the long term, the national education system needs to be completely overhauled and a focus on practical skills and advanced STEM has to be championed. Incentives to lure Americans back into science and engineering fields may be necessary. The US can do both: Cut immigration down to only the best and brightest, or down to labor pools with proven shortages, while also encouraging native-born American interest in such fields and creating a domestic pool of skilled assets.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 20:11 - The Economics Of "It's A Wonderful Life"
The Economics Of “It’s A Wonderful Life”
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,
When Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful Life” was being filmed in 1945, just as the Second World War was closing and a few years before the Cold War was heating up, the FBI investigated it for its supposed anti-capitalist themes. A memo said:
“With regard to the picture It’s a Wonderful Life, [redacted] stated in substance that the film represented rather obvious attempts to discredit bankers by casting Lionel Barrymore as a ‘scrooge-type’ so that he would be the most hated man in the picture. This, according to these sources, is a common trick used by Communists. [In] addition, [redacted] stated that, in his opinion, this picture deliberately maligned the upper class, attempting to show the people who had money were mean and despicable characters.”
If it was a communist plot, it’s not a very good one. The film celebrates small-town life, family, hard work, faith, dedication to truth, and bottom-up prosperity, while villainizing theft (Mr. Potter effectively steals the money belonging to the small bank) and consolidation of finance.
Ask anyone what the message of the film is.
They will tell you: truth, decency, be happy with the opportunities you have, don’t be jealous or envious of others, count your blessings, remember how valuable you are as a person, rally around the life you have, serve your community, fight evil when necessary, and don’t ever take your good life for granted.
There’s nothing communist about that. As for the portrayal of the banker, Henry Potter in the film is a stand-in for ruling class power and the accumulation of unjust wealth and power, someone more akin to government than regular businesspeople.
In the nightmare sequence, Potter takes over the town and the place becomes a decadent and drunken place of squalor, crime, and sadness, fueled by credit schemes and power brokering.
Maybe that has a ring of truth to it?
Partisans of capitalism would not do their cause any favors by defending the big banker in this movie against the aspirations of the townsfolk. Rather than force-fitting this film into a Cold War narrative, the film can be more properly seen as part of a long line of Capra’s own populist impulses, most fully realized in his 1941 masterpiece “Meet John Doe.”
That film is actually better overall, in my view, the story of how a legitimate populist movement gets played by a wicked power broker who attempts to channel the people’s goodness into a fifth-column movement designed to subvert the Constitution. I have certain historical figures in mind (FDR perhaps?), but that’s for another time.
The most riveting scene in “It’s a Wonderful Life” concerns a run on the Building and Loan that is managed by George Bailey. Hearing of the other troubles in the industry, and a rumor spread by Henry Potter, the depositors panic and demand their money to be withdrawn immediately. There was nothing unfair or illicit about the demand. The people were worried about the viability of the institution in light of the rumors of missing funds.
At the same time, the whole idea of a Building and Loan is the pooling of resources to support home ownership in exchange for which depositors receive interest. They are nowhere promised a full and immediate return on all deposits on demand. The institution is built on trust—trust that the managers are not overleveraged, trust that its investments are wise, trust that the community is economically viable, trust that people will pay their mortgages.
Bailey gives an impassioned speech to the depositors that saves the institution. Here is what he said:
“Now listen to me. I beg of you not to do this thing. If Potter gets hold of this Building and Loan there’ll never be another decent house built in this town. He’s already got charge of the bank. He’s got the bus line. He’s got the department stores. And now he’s after us. Why? Well, it’s very simple. Because we’re cutting in on his business, that’s why. And because he wants to keep you living in his slums and paying the kind of rent he decides.
“Please, let me explain something to you. Your money’s in Joe’s house, right next to yours. And in the Kennedy house, and Mrs. Macklin’s house, and a hundred others. Why, you’re lending them the money to build, and then they’re going to pay it back to you as best they can. Now, what are you going to do? Foreclose on them?
“I’ve got $2,000 here. That’s what’s left of the Building and Loan. The rest is locked up in mortgages. Now, you’re not going to get your money tonight. But you’ve got my word that each one of you will get your money back as soon as we can possibly give it to you.”
Based on this speech, people calm down and decide to trust that something will work out. Bailey here proves himself to be a very good marketing manager of the institution, eloquently explaining how the system works here—or, rather, reminding them of how the institution functions as a matter of contract.
You can trace banking contracts through history to understand that there are many different types. Some institutions are purely for storage and safekeeping, essentially holding your resources in a safe deposit box or a grain elevator. The contract is a bailment: you get the whole of your deposit back on the asking. That is true for every depositor at any moment in time.
The Building and Loan is not set up to provide all depositors their money upon the asking. Its assets and liabilities balance, but its assets are in the nonliquid form of housing. There is nothing shady or noncontractual about this. Nor does this kind of leverage produce inflation. Its job is to put capital in the form of money to work in ways that pay returns over time.
In loan banking with clearing services, the situation is different. Your money is invested in other projects and the clearing services are free or depositors earn interest. It’s a straightforward business transaction.
By the 1940s, however, there was plenty shady about a bank of the type run by Potter, who is a stand-in for a long line of banking interests that become overleveraged and rely on its relationship with government and cartelized central bankers for bailouts when times get rough. We saw this in spades in 2008, when the Fed used its powers to recapitalize major banks and financial firms that had overleveraged in mortgage-backed securities.
In fact, the creation of the Federal Reserve itself in 1913 was advertised as a way to provide financial stability to the industry but it ended up centralizing it, creating a moral hazard, and subsidizing loan profligacy in a way that endangered the entire system.
After the Fed was tapped to provide liquidity for the Great War, the industry never really righted itself toward financial soundness. The bank runs of the early 1930s that ended with mandated bank holidays and devaluation make the point.
That’s not a failure of “fractional reserve banking” as such but simply a failure of signaling systems, clear contracts, transparent audits, and honest risk assessments. Central banking itself is the source of the problem. Nor did government-provided deposit insurance (started in 1933) work as a stabilizer, it only incentivized more risk-taking than the market would otherwise allow.
To be sure, there is a role for institutions that provide 100 percent backing for deposits. Even now, people are reluctant to keep more than $250,000 in a single bank account because this is the amount of government-provided deposit insurance. They are essentially seeking perfect liquidity on their accounts. The other option is to hold one’s money in financial firms that keep money invested in stocks and bonds that pay returns based on depositor risk assessment.
The case of Bitcoin is a good test case for what markets demand of banking. Most exchanges claim to offer 1:1 holdings of assets with zero leverage, though others market themselves as institutions for pooling resources and giving returns to depositors based on risk. This experiment has been fascinating because there is no deposit insurance and no Bitcoin central bank. Some exchanges have gone belly up precisely because not all promises have been kept.
As the industry matures, which we can hope will happen without government backing or intervention, it will become a complex mixture of self-custody (after all, becoming your own bank was the whole pitch of Bitcoin), full custody exchanges, loan operations, and leveraged services of various risk profiles. This is how a free market in money and banking should work.
In an ideal world, banking would work like any other business in a free market. It would bear all the risk for the investments it undertakes. It would have free entry and exit. There would be innovation driven by the entrepreneurial spirit. Government would have nothing to do with it. In some ways, that was the Building and Loan that George Bailey saved through his efforts.
The popularity of “It’s a Wonderful Life” owes so much to its messaging, and also to the perception for decades that the film was in the public domain, which permitted it to be widely aired on television, causing generations to regard it as the American classic it truly is. It is also a tribute to the enterprising spirit and its connection to family, community, and the values that make for the good life. The FBI was simply wrong and the film’s popularity to this day proves it.
* * *
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 20:00 - "All Systems Go" For Polar Vortex Air Dumping Into US
“All Systems Go” For Polar Vortex Air Dumping Into US
New forecasts from private weather forecaster BAMWX show an Arctic blast, or “polar vortex,” is set to pour into the eastern half of the United States during the second week of January or by mid-month. US natural gas markets responded early Friday, jumping nearly 5% on expectations of a colder start to the new year and increased heating fuel demand.
“BIG overnight colder trends on the EPS. The key here is the tropospheric polar vortex sitting over the Hudson Bay. The ability for storms/fronts to pull in cold air will be amplified and this run highlights that. Stages set for a few memorable cold snaps in January of 2025,” BAMWX wrote on X.
BIG overnight colder trends on the EPS.
The key here is the tropospheric polar vortex sitting over the Hudson Bay. The ability for storms/fronts to pull in cold air will be amplified and this run highlights that.
Stages set for a few memorable cold snaps in January of 2025. pic.twitter.com/bbe9rF9gep
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 27, 2024
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BAMWX noted, “In addition to the Tropospheric Polar Vortex – one key to keeping the cold around for an extended time is to then move the Stratospheric Polar Vortex towards North America to ensure a consistent supply of cold air down the road,” adding, “Both the ECMWF and GEFS are showing that now.”
In addition to the Tropospheric Polar Vortex – one key to keeping the cold around for an extended time is to then move the Stratospheric Polar Vortex towards North America to ensure a consistent supply of cold air down the road.
Both the ECMWF and GEFS are showing that now. pic.twitter.com/Bm0tGFcKg1
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 27, 2024
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BAMWX’s Kirk Hinz commented on the new weather models, pointing to a very serious cold start to the year for the eastern half of the US. He said, “All systems “go” on Arctic air dumping into the US early to mid-Jan.”
All systems “go” on #Arctic air dumping into the US early to mid-Jan.
We have been mentioning for weeks now to look for this period for our next cold air outbreak + increased #winter storm potential.#PolarVortex position is prime for “durable” cold as well.#natgas #energy pic.twitter.com/eKoiiPTlrW
— Kirk 🇺🇸 Hinz | BAM ⚡️Weather (@Met_khinz) December 27, 2024
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Here’s BAMWX’s long-range analysis for January:
The cold sets the stage for possible snowy conditions across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.
A look at January patterns with a declining AAM, suggests theres plenty of snow chances on the horizon in January.
Im about to record my latest video to talk more about this be sure to check it out! pic.twitter.com/zIWNGaNNXk
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 27, 2024
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BAMWX’s January Forecast in video format:
NatGas futures for January delivery jumped nearly 5%, reaching about $3.89/MMBtu.
Notably, prices have breached the $3 resistance level after consolidating for two years, potentially signaling a major trend reversal.
In early December, warmer Lower 48 temperatures turned the “widowmaker” (March-April 2025) spread negative at the earliest point in the season in nine years. This signaled that the market abandoned expectations for higher prices across the Lower 48 this winter. However, the spread has flatlined around 0 and turned up.
All it takes is one polar vortex split to unleash cold Arctic air into the Lower 48, potentially reversing the bearish outlook—and that’s likely what may happen here.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 19:30 - America's Problem With Consumerism Is The Government's Fault
America’s Problem With Consumerism Is The Government’s Fault
Authored by Connor O’Keefe via The Mises Institute,
At the end of every year, as we make our way through the holidays, you’ll hear no shortage of complaints about the rampant hyper-consumerism at the heart of modern American society. And these complaints aren’t without merit. Flip on the TV or walk through any city’s commercial district before Christmas, and it’s easy to get the impression that the entire American concept of familial love rests on how much stuff we buy for each other.
Beyond Christmas, there’s no question that purchasing and acquiring stuff is a central part of American life.
Many consider their social status to be reflected by how much they can and do spend on luxurious goods and experiences. And, each year, billions of dollars of marketing goes into convincing us that we are one purchase away from permanent bliss.
There’s no question that modern America is a very “consumerist” society.
But before condemning that as a “moral failure” of the American people, it’s important to understand that this is the sought-after result of our government’s policies.
Consumption is an essential part of life. We obviously need food, water, clothing, and shelter to survive. And, as human civilization has grown beyond Malthusian hunter-gatherer conditions, the goods and services available to consume have made life safer, more comfortable, and more fulfilling than our early ancestors could have dreamed of.
But all that progress rests on one thing above all: our ancestor’s willingness to forgo consumption, save the fruits of their labor, and invest it in the production of more valued goods and services.
Forgoing consumption is not easy, but it is incredibly important. Because saving in order to invest is quite literally the engine of civilization.
But saving itself is also an important aspect of a healthy society. Our world is unstable and uncertain. Saving money protects us from future difficulties we cannot foresee. And further, it allows us to pass on wealth to our descendants—improving the starting point and overall well-being of future generations.
So, if the well-being of all of our society requires we invest in more valued lines of production, our personal well-being requires we consume, and the well-being of our future selves and descendants requires we save, what determines which action we choose? We can’t do all three at the same time, after all.
Like anything, it comes down to our preferences. More specifically, in this case, because we’re comparing the satisfaction of our wants in different time periods, it comes down to what economists call time preference—the extent to which we value present satisfaction over that exact same satisfaction in the future.
For some—mainly children—immediate gratification is highly preferred to delayed gratification, even when that delayed gratification is much larger. These people are said to have a high time preference.
Typically, as we become adults, we come to recognize the benefits of withholding some of our consumption in order to save and/or invest in productive pursuits. Although it is by no means easy, we start to improve our lives dramatically if we can find the discipline to act in the interest of our future selves. Those who forgo a lot of instant gratification through consumption to pursue the delayed—but often greater—gratification that comes from being frugal or productive are said to have a low time preference.
Essentially, all of human history is one long story of societies successfully working to lower their time preference, investing in the well-being of future generations, and leaving the world better off than it had been before. While it is always more comfortable in the moment to satisfy our immediate wants, the consistency of falling time preferences across most of the globe suggests that humans naturally gravitate toward sacrificing their own material comforts to bring about a better future for themselves and their children. That is a beautiful thing, and it’s the reason our species has achieved so much. But over the last century or so, this glorious, multi-thousand-year trend has come under attack.
In the past, some economists mistakenly came to view savings as economic waste. Money saved, they thought, was money “leaking” out of the economy. This idea, which came to be known as “the paradox of thrift,” was then used by political officials to help justify the government’s takeover of the monetary system.
Today, with full control over the supply and value of money, the United States government has settled on a policy that aims to bring about permanent price inflation. They do this by printing money and injecting it into the economy through the credit markets. Doing so transfers a lot of wealth to the political class and creates the recurring nightmarish cycle of economic booms and recessions. But it also has profound effects on the public’s behavior.
Because permanent price inflation punishes people for saving. Money loses its value over time, meaning—in a reversal of how it’s worked for almost all of human history—money saved today will not be able to purchase as much in the future.
With what is, in effect, a tax on savings, the government encourages people to adopt more child-like, high time preference behaviors by saving less and consuming more. Living paycheck-to-paycheck to fund more GDP-bloating consumption is a good thing, in this backward economic view, as is going into debt to fund even more consumption.
This government-induced rise in time preference also has incredibly damaging impacts on our culture as the consumption of stuff takes priority over the production of resources and the cultivation of community. And the prioritization of immediate gratification spreads beyond economic decisions to encompass all aspects of life.
The American political class may really believe that savings are economically damaging and that they should be discouraged. Or they may just see that argument as another useful justification for a monetary system that is making them very rich. But regardless, the kind of hyper-consumerist, living paycheck-to-paycheck, buried-in-debt lifestyle that is used to chastise Americans—especially around Christmas—is precisely what the American monetary system is built to encourage.
Finding the hyper-fixation on buying stuff around the holidays off-putting is appropriate. But make sure you place the blame on the right people.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 19:00 - "I Like This Idea": Kevin O'Leary Calls for "Economic Union" Between US & Canada To Secure Future
“I Like This Idea”: Kevin O’Leary Calls for “Economic Union” Between US & Canada To Secure Future
Canadian businessman and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary appeared on Fox Business Thursday, voicing his dissatisfaction over Liberal Party Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s imploding leadership. O’Leary suggested that under President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, the United States and Canadian economies should unite to create an economic powerhouse.
“This could be the beginning of an economic union,” O’Leary said, noting, “Think about the power of combining two economies, erasing the border between Canada and the United States and putting all that resource up to the northern borders where China and Russia are knocking on the doors. Give a common currency, figure out taxes, and get everything trading both ways.”
He added: “I like this idea and at least half of Canadians are interested.”
NEW: Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian, says he likes the idea of combining the US and Canadian economies, says he is heading to Mar-a-Lago to start the talks.
O’Leary said half of Canadians are interested in Trump’s proposal.
“[Canadians] want to hear more… what this… pic.twitter.com/ss2sjIADBC
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 26, 2024
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In recent weeks, Trump said it would be “a great idea” for Canada to become the 51st US state in an unfolding tariff dispute in North America. This prompted Trudeau to visit Trump’s Mar-a-Lago in South Florida.
On Christmas Day, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “No one can answer why we subsidize Canada to the tune of over $100,000,000 a year? Makes no sense!”
He continued, “Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st State. They would save massively on taxes and military protection. I think it is a great idea. 51st State!!!”
Trump also made tariff threats against Canada to secure its border amid the expansion of fentanyl superlab production across Canada—much of which is destined for the US.
To O’Leary’s point, Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Canada—highly integrated with the US economy, accounting for 60% of US crude oil imports and 85% of US electricity imports—could spark turmoil for its northern neighbor. To resolve this and ensure North America remains an economic powerhouse throughout this century, deeper economic integration and cooperation might be necessary.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 18:30 - Bird Flu Virus Mutations Discovered In First Severe Human Case In US, CDC Says
Bird Flu Virus Mutations Discovered In First Severe Human Case In US, CDC Says
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found mutations in samples taken from a man infected with the first severe case of avian influenza in the United States, mutations that were not present in specimens collected from his infected backyard flock.
A person holds a test tube labeled “Bird Flu” in a photo illustration, on Jan. 14, 2023. Dado Ruvic/Reuters The agency began analyzing the samples after the patient—a resident of southwestern Louisiana, aged over 65—was confirmed last week as the first person in the United States with a severe case of H5N1 bird flu.
In a Dec. 18 statement, the CDC said the man was infected with the D1.1 genotype of the virus that was recently detected in wild birds and poultry in the United States, and in human cases in British Columbia, Canada, and Washington state.
The strain differs from the B3.13 genotype detected in dairy cows, human cases, and some poultry across the United States.
According to a Dec. 26 update from the agency, an analysis of two respiratory specimens collected from the man showed low-frequency mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene, the part of the virus that plays a key role in its binding to host cells.
The mutations were not found in poultry samples collected on the patient’s property, suggesting the changes emerged in the patient after he became infected, the CDC said.
According to the CDC, the mutations seen in the samples may result in increased virus binding to cell receptors found in the upper respiratory tract of humans.
“Although concerning, and a reminder that A(H5N1) viruses can develop changes during the clinical course of a human infection, these changes would be more concerning if found in animal hosts or in early stages of infection (e.g., within a few days of symptom onset) when these changes might be more likely to facilitate spread to close contacts,” the CDC stated. “Notably, in this case, no transmission from the patient in Louisiana to other persons has been identified.”
Risk to Public Remains Low: CDC
While the mutations are rare, they have been reported in some cases in other countries and most often during severe infections.
One of the mutations was also identified in another severe human case in British Columbia, suggesting it emerged as the virus replicated in the patient, the agency said.
Despite the discovery of the mutations, the CDC said the risk to the general public remains low.
The detection of a severe human case of bird flu with genetic changes in a clinical specimen “underscores the importance of ongoing genomic surveillance in people and animals,” the agency said.
It also highlights the importance of containing bid flu outbreaks among dairy cattle and poultry and implementing prevention measures among people exposed to infected animals or environments, the CDC said.
A total of 65 human cases of H5 bird flu have been reported in the United States since April 2024, according to the CDC.
To help prevent exposure, health officials have urged people to avoid direct contact with sick or dead animals, particularly wild birds and poultry, and to wear personal protective equipment if contact is unavoidable.
The agency also advises people not to touch surfaces or materials contaminated with the saliva, mucous, or animal feces of wild or domestic birds or other animals that may be infected with the virus.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 18:05 - Mainstream Media Ignores Sectarian Killings In 'Liberated' Syria While Jolani Plays Nice For Cameras
Mainstream Media Ignores Sectarian Killings In ‘Liberated’ Syria While Jolani Plays Nice For Cameras
Since the rapid collapse of the Assad government and the takeover of Damascus by US-designated terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on December 8, Syrians by the hundreds or even thousands have been filmed in city streets celebrating, expressing hope for a new era.
But for every scene of hundreds gathered in a city square in front of Al Jazeera or CNN cameras, the reality is that there are many tens of thousands more families holed up in their homes, deeply fearful of venturing outside, with the more fortunate ones having stocked up on supplies just prior to Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s army of mujahideen fighters entering the capital.
With the basically overnight and shock collapse of a state system earlier this month which had been in place for over a half-century, Syrians whether in Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Latakia, or Damascus have no clue which armed factions might be patrolling the neighborhoods just around the corner from their apartments.
Illustrative: Prior scene in northern Syria earlier in the war. Jihadists mock a Syrian soldier’s cross necklace. A big looming dark fear is the possibility of “reprisal” killings meted out by the jihadists against any community, especially along religious lines, merely perceived as ‘loyalist’ or at least which never came out openly against the Assad government. We and others have been documenting that this is already taking place.
Political alignment aside, all communities of the capital have historically been “Syria first”—that is, the common populace tends to frame identity foremost along nationalistic lines. The ideology of the conquerors, in their own words and patches/symbols on their tactical vests, are without doubt Takfirism, Salafism, and Wahhabism. This has been exhaustively documented over many, many years of the tragic proxy war in Syria – yet now suddenly Western leaders and media lackeys have ‘forgotten’ it all. Non-Sunni Muslims are especially being targeted, for nothing else other than religion and identity
Mainstream media cameras in Damascus have been carefully trying to hide or at least downplay this reality. They present the euphoria of those few on the streets praising the ‘revolution’ and downfall of Assad while ignoring the many more who are bracing for a sectarian bloodbath at the hands of the jihadists.
American correspondents have even been caught ‘coaching’ bearded militants waring ISIS patches on how to improve their image in front of an international audience… Watch: Syrian ‘Moderate Rebel’ Removes ISIS Patch At Prompting Of American Journalist.
HTS goons open fire on demonstrators protesting extrajudicial revenge killings and the destruction of Alawite shrines just days after Jolani received friendly delegations of US and UK diplomats and journos pic.twitter.com/nVWA49wNgK
— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) December 25, 2024
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This fear of being targeted for ethno-religious genocide is perhaps greatest among Christians, Alawites, and Druze. Dread or anxiety at what tomorrow will bring is also a reality among some business-oriented Sunnis of Aleppo and Damascus.
Major urban centers in Syria had always had a definite secular and pluralist public vibe—with liquor stores and nightclubs a common sight in central areas—and women in the Islamic veil a little bit more of a rarity. Some liquor stores especially in Aleppo and the north have already been smashed and destroyed.
Now, for the first time in Syria’s modern history, women who dare to venture out in the city center of Damascus are being asked their sectarian affiliation: Are you Sunni, Shia, Christian, Druze? Or else they are being told to put on the Islamic veil, by bearded militants from outside cities or villages, or worse who are from other countries. Latakia, as well as parts of the countryside, are already witnessing armed jihadist gangs conducting summary executions.
Syria: “When we build the Islamic caliphate, Christians will pay Jizya under Islamic Sharia.” – Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, HTS Islamist leader and new ruler of Syria
Forcing Christians to become second-class citizens and be extorted through a protection tax is not moderate. pic.twitter.com/BGvnvM8w3C
— Christian Emergency Alliance (@ChristianEmerg1) December 17, 2024
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Gruesome videos (too horrific to link to) are filling up social media platforms like X and Telegram, in some instances with unidentified victims being dragged to death behind vehicles.
Others show HTS-linked factions or else foreign jihadist groups cleansing entire villages of ‘Nusayris’—a derogatory term for Alawites, which is ethno-religious background of the Assad family. Jolani’s officials have recently tried to urge for militants to not film their atrocities or upload them to the internet.
* * *
Rania Khalek is an independent journalist who has long reported from the region. Her contacts across Syria are telling her that the jihadists are killing civilians in various places far away from CNN or Al-Jazeera cameras. Below is a report she posted to X [emphasis ZH]…
Some concerning developments in Syria that were being largely ignored or dismissed until horrific videos of sectarian violence and executions began emerging in recent days…
In some mixed Syrian towns and villages as well as minority neighborhoods around Homs, Hama and on the coast, security was breaking down and people felt scared to speak about it, according to multiple contacts. The Hama-Homs highway had decapitated bodies strewn about, according to one contact. He wanted to take pictures of the bodies on the highway but he didn’t dare out of fear.
At one roadblock they forced him to open his phone and they went through it. He said they spoke Arabic but it was a hybrid fusha accent he could barely understand. A contact reported being stopped by HTS at a barricade. He then had to wait for his business partner who is Sunni to come and vouch for him. Not a good sign.
Flyers have been disbursed in multiple areas informing women how they should dress and act. Minorities in mixed villages have been subjected to robberies, killings, kidnappings, etc. Some have responded by organizing armed men to protect their neighborhoods from raids. This is not everyone’s experience of course. But these sorts of incidents were increasing. And they reached a fever pitch after the video of the destruction of an Alawite shrine surfaced.
Reuters: “Rebel fighters ride in a vehicle after they seized Damascus and ousted President Bashar in Syria, December 9, 2024.” While the random violence and score settling speaks to the chaos that comes with a regime change like this, the sectarian violence is much more concerning. There are militias HTS either has no control over because they’re spread too thin or they don’t care to stop them. Some expressed that they suspect HTS is secretly calling the shots and then playing dumb.
Whatever the case, there is deep distrust of HTS in many minority communities due to their past violence combined with recent events. “I don’t trust them at all, the fact that they are so insistent on collecting guns from people is so worrying, they even want licensed guns, and this is actually scary. They are always trying to appear as nice people talking about peace, but yet every day someone gets killed and they do nothing about it,” said one contact in Latakia.
The sectarian violence is reminiscent of post 2011 days when the regime would be kicked out of an area and extremist militias would quickly take over and then chaos and sectarian violence would ensue. The pro-HTS side is framing any pushback or measure of self defense in vulnerable communities as Iranian-provoked or Assadist, which isn’t helpful and exacerbates the sectarianism. As the gun battles heat up, it’s hard to ignore the signs of potential civil unrest to come with violent zones of state collapse. I hope stability wins the day but it doesn’t look good.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 17:40 - State Lawmakers Say Drastic Change Needed To Make College Affordable, Worthwhile
State Lawmakers Say Drastic Change Needed To Make College Affordable, Worthwhile
Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,
For millions of American college students, things can go from bad to worse in a hurry, as they take on long-term debt to finance higher education and earn a degree that, based on labor market demands, isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
Data analyzed by a group of state lawmakers across the country indicates that significant changes are needed to the U.S. higher education system—still viewed as the envy of the world—if a college degree is going to remain the best path for long-term financial stability.
“The public discourse on higher education … is filled with anxiety over a host of issues,” stated a recent report from the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) Task Force on Higher Education.
“The affordability of higher education tops the list.”
The report was written by 29 legislators and four legislative aids across 32 states. The two-year project, completed in October, provides suggestions to college and university leaders and state and federal lawmakers for making college affordable and worthwhile.
Task force chairs state Sens. Michael Dembrow from Oregon and Ann Millner from Utah discussed the report during a Dec. 20 virtual town hall event and pledged to lobby the federal government and universities to consider its recommendations in the years ahead.
“It also cuts through some of the myths of higher education,” said Dembrow, a Democrat, while applauding the bipartisan effort. “It’s focused on what we can agree on first. I was surprised at how much we agreed.”
Collective student debt in the United States is nearly $1.8 trillion, three times that in 2006, according to the report. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found that student debt is also the second-largest form of debt in the nation behind mortgages. One-third of borrowers have debt but no degree, reported the U.S. Department of Education.
The population of undergraduate students declined by 2.4 million students between 2012 and 2022, and the vast majority of students attend public four-year institutions as many community colleges and private schools struggle to stay afloat, according to the report.
Even though tuition and college costs have increased faster than the rate of inflation, the maximum federal Pell Grant award for eligible students has only increased by 10 percent since 2003, to $7,395 this year. And yet, the federal government spends more than $37,000 per student, or 2.5 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, compared to about $15,500 per K-12 student, the report says.
The report found state education departments can expand dual-enrollment programs so students can earn more college credits while in high school and lessen the amount of time and money needed to complete a degree program after they earn their diploma. Higher education institutions, public and private, can help out with this initiative by being more transparent about what credits earned in high school will be counted toward program completion.
The federal government, meanwhile, should require students to attend annual loan counseling sessions “and know their uptake on aid limits,” the report said.
The report said colleges and universities could be more transparent by sharing their entire operating budgets to note how much employees are paid and why, and to spell out for students the total costs to attend their institutions full-time, not just the “net” total or average price students pay. The total for housing, meal plans, student services, and other items collectively totals far more than tuition.
“Clearly communicate the real price students pay,” it said.
“Assess program costs and prices against enrolled students’ income and career earning potential.”
The report also suggests that federal block grants are available for states that are in a better position to invest in college and university programs that are more closely aligned with local and state workforce needs. Employers should be involved in writing courses of study and federally funded work-study programs that make students career-ready.
The report said tuition costs should be reasonable and relative to the college or university’s program cost as well as the students’ incomes, career pathways, and earning potential.
“The federal government, too, has a strong responsibility to enhance the value of degrees,” it said.
Millner, a Republican, encouraged lawmakers in all states to read the report and meet with higher education leaders to discuss changes.
“It builds a foundation to make a plan for higher education to thrive in states,” she said.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 17:15 - Marc Andreessen: 'Every Signal Is Being Sent' Trump DOJ Official Harmeet Dhillon Will Drop Hammer On Woke Corporations
Marc Andreessen: ‘Every Signal Is Being Sent’ Trump DOJ Official Harmeet Dhillon Will Drop Hammer On Woke Corporations
Billionaire investor and Donald Trump adviser Marc Andreessen thinks corporate culture is about to undergo a radical change. Speaking with Erik Torenberg on the Moment of Zen podcast, Andreessen said that the reign of extreme wokeness, particularly in corporate America and the media, is rapidly coming to an end.
The catalyst? A combination of rising legal risks, the deflation of wokeness as a cultural force, and a change in leadership at the Department of Justice. Andreessen highlighted that with the appointment of Harmeet Dhillon to head the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, the federal government may soon begin to challenge and reverse many of the DEI-driven policies that have dominated corporations, universities, and other large institutions over the past decade.
This shift, he argues, could trigger a major pullback in DEI initiatives across the private sector, as companies scramble to comply with the law and distance themselves from policies that may now be seen as legally and culturally untenable.
.@pmarca to @eriktorenberg: ‘Every Signal is Being Sent’ Trump DOJ Civil Rights Head Will Target Corporate DEI Policies
“If you wanted to pick the most extreme possible attorney to put in charge of the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department to reverse DEI, it would be… pic.twitter.com/NNH2uTWn1t
— CAPITAL (@capitalnewshq) December 27, 2024
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Erik Torenberg: You’re optimistic now that this reign of soft authoritarianism, aka extreme wokeness, is over. There’s a question of will it just come back again in four years? Now that Trump will take power, will they sort of summon the resistance antibodies again? Talk a little bit about your perspective.
Marc Andreessen: I think that “wokeness is over” is a little bit too glib, and the main reason why that’s the case I think, you know, maybe is self-evident, which is basically the bureaucracies of corporate America and of the government and of nonprofits, foundations, schools, universities, the media companies, the press — basically, the big bureaucracies, what we refer to as sort of the managerial class. The cathedral, Curtis’ term, or James Burnham’s term, the managerial class, the managers who sort of run everything — and by everything being like basically all of the large incumbent institutions — like, wokeness has become standard policy, right? And in like every large organization in the country, like the mandate number one is be compliant, right? Whatever is required to be compliant is like holy, right? It’s like the thing that cannot be — you must be compliant. You must check off all the compliance boxes. Whether you win or not in the market is kind of optional, but you must be compliant. Whether you actually teach students anything is optional, but you must be compliant.
Wokeness has become part of the compliance regime, also what they refer to wonderfully in great Orwellian terms as the ‘risk management regime,’ the ‘trust and safety regime.’ Yeah, you know, just take all these words and reverse them. This stuff has gotten wired very deeply, and then it’s been well-documented at this point that the foundation for a lot of what we call wokeness is actually baked deeply into the law. And a whole bunch of people have done great work, like Richard Hanania, Christopher Caldwell, and Wesley [Yang], who have all done great work in documenting kind of how deep this stuff is sort of embedded in the law, which is a whole other topic.
There’s an institutionalization that took place that’s going to take optimistically 30 years to get out or something like that. And by the way, maybe never. Having said that, there’s that. But then there’s what we’ve been dealing with for the last decade, which is beyond that — which is sort of the idea of wokeness being like the cultural vanguard, yeah, and basically being the thing that’s like the coolest, highest-status, highest-fashion thing you can possibly be, and the thing that you have to be if you want to aspire to rise in the hierarchy and among the managerial class and run things. And then, if you want to get like really good press coverage, and if you want people to think that you’re a moral person—that whole thing.
Then there’s the power component of it. I use the Tolkien metaphor here, the ‘ring of power,’ which is the ability to call somebody a bad name under the wokeness regime and like instantly vaporize them and blow them out of their job and take their job. Like those second parts are like, I think, fading very fast. And in a lot of ways, it’s sort of inevitable that would happen, because it’s just like in fashion, whatever is cool and trending now looks dated five or ten years later. And you wonder how people possibly could have worn bell bottoms or whatever. Like, you know, it’s that kind of phenomenon. And there’s no question, the election basically punched a giant hole in the side of that balloon, and it’s deflating incredibly quickly. And by the way, you see it in the reaction. You see it in the reaction to the election itself, which is the polar opposite reaction to 2016, which is just like complete deflation taking place. And I think wokeness is losing altitude quickly. But let’s come back to the legal part, because that’s also — there are very interesting things that might happen there that we could also talk about.”
Erik Torenberg: Say more about this.
Marc Andreessen: If you wanted to pick the most extreme possible attorney to put in charge of the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department to reverse DEI, it would be this lawyer named Harmeet Dhillon. She’s been a California lawyer and has been the scourge of woke corporations for the last decade. As it happens, she has just been appointed to run the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department. For those who don’t track this, the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department is the federal government’s prosecutorial arm that basically enforces wokeness. They’re the ones who have made sure that, for the last decade, these companies have had all these crazy policies under the penalty of being investigated, subpoenaed, and ultimately prosecuted.
There have been lots of prosecutions and court cases. The most famous case that the current head of the Civil Rights division brought was the case against SpaceX for not hiring enough refugees—despite the fact that SpaceX is a military contractor and is not permitted to hire non-American citizens under a separate law.The person running that division has been a true activist, as you’d expect from this administration. And then Dhillon, who, by the way, I don’t know but I’ve been following for years, and is clearly brilliant, she is the exact opposite of that. Every signal is being sent that they’re going to do a 180 on all these things, and they’re going to begin prosecuting companies for violations of civil rights laws in the form of reverse discrimination—discrimination against white people, Asians, Jews, and other unprotected classes.
So, signals are being sent by these appointments that there is going to be an assault to reverse the assault that companies and universities have been under. And then, of course, the Supreme Court ruled not that long ago that private universities are not allowed to do race-based admissions. It’s actually really funny because there’s some question as to whether the demographic shift of admissions in the last year was starkly different than the year before, as these institutions claim they’re coming into compliance with the Supreme Court. There’s some question as to whether discovery will show they’re actually in compliance or whether they’re still playing games. That’s another thing we may find out.
There’s also an open question as to whether this decision has essentially already been made or will be made for private companies as well. And there’s a lot of private companies that have been trying to figure out quietly how to distance themselves from DEI, both for legal reasons and for cultural reasons. Now, there’s another very interesting thing kicking in. I think there are a lot of large companies that were already done with DEI to start with. They were done with DEI for their own reasons because it’s backfired in many spectacular ways. But now, any large company that wants to distance itself from DEI has the best reason in the world: compliance. It’s illegal.
Let me just say for the record… I think every major corporation in the country is just in flagrant violation of actual civil rights law. You cannot have these hard quotas and racially, ethnically, and religiously biased hiring practices. It’s flat-out illegal. These companies have gone so extreme on this that they’ve ended up in what I think is clearly mass illegality. So, as Dhillon steps into her job, she’s not going to lack for a shortage of targets. If you don’t want to be a target, it’s a great ‘get out of jail free’ card to just voluntarily shut all this stuff down.
My guess is that starting pretty quickly, we’re already starting to see it. Boeing and a bunch of other companies have already put a bullet in their programs. Even the University of Michigan, which went completely overboard with this stuff, has actually shut their whole thing down. I think we’re going to see, my guess is, a run of companies that will take dramatic action here.
Watch the entire exchange here:
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 16:50 - 15 Facts About The Growth Of Crime In The US That Will Blow Your Mind
15 Facts About The Growth Of Crime In The US That Will Blow Your Mind
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
We live in a high crime society. Nobody can dispute that fact, and it has been this way for a long time. But the crime wave that we have witnessed in recent years has been truly breathtaking. Tens of thousands of gangs are running wild in our major urban areas, and the growth of those gangs has been supercharged during the past four years thanks to the reckless border policies of the Biden administration. Now we have rampant lawlessness in our streets, and it certainly isn’t going to be easy to clean up this mess.
The following are 15 facts about the growth of crime in the United States that will blow your mind…
#1 The number of shoplifting incidents per year in the United States is up 93 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels…
The average number of shoplifting incidents jumped 93% in 2023 compared with pre-pandemic times and monetary losses for retailers have risen 90%, according to the nation’s largest retail trade group.
With its “Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024” study, the National Retail Federation (NRF) is highlighting the severity of this issue. For instance, despite the continuous efforts by retailers to combat such crimes and a growing number of states that have updated their laws to prosecute organized retail crime as felonies, the number of retail theft incidents continues to climb.
#2 Bakersfield, California is the car theft capital of the country…
Bakersfield is a city with less than half a million people, making it the 9th most populous city in California. It also has the distinction of having the most car thefts of any U.S. city.
#3 Denver, Colorado is closing in on Bakersfield very quickly. In fact, the car theft rate in Denver increased by 37 percent in just one year…
Denver is the capital and most populous city in Colorado which incidently made the NICB’s hot spot list for the top state by number of auto thefts. Not only did Denver experience 964 thefts per 100,000 residents, but the theft rate increased by 37%. As with most places, Kia and Hyundai vehicles make up a large percentage of those cars stolen.
#4 When it comes to car theft, Pueblo, Colorado only ranks third, but a 47 percent increase in just one year has it climbing the chart fast…
Well south of Denver and with a much smaller population, the city of Pueblo takes the third spot on our list. The city experienced auto theft at a rate of 891 per 100,000 residents. Additionally, the theft rate increased by a whopping 47% in one year. Pueblo police cite driver apathy as a reason behind the record levels of theft.
#5 According to the FBI, more than 14 million crimes are reported in the United States each year…
The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 state, county, city, university and college, and tribal agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% inhabitants, submitted data to the UCR Program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System.
#6 There are more than 1.9 million people sitting in our prisons…
Further complicating matters is the fact that the U.S. doesn’t have one criminal legal system; instead, we have thousands of federal, state, local, and tribal systems. Together, these systems hold over 1.9 million people in 1,566 state prisons, 98 federal prisons, 3,116 local jails, 1,323 juvenile correctional facilities, 142 immigration detention facilities, and 80 Indian country jails, as well as in military prisons, civil commitment centers, state psychiatric hospitals, and prisons in the U.S. territories — at a system-wide cost of at least $182 billion each year.
#7 The U.S. has the largest prison population in the world by a very wide margin. We have approximately 5 percent of the world’s population, but we have approximately 25 percent of the world’s incarcerated population.
#8 According to the FBI, 33,000 criminal gangs are operating inside the United States today…
Some 33,000 violent street gangs, motorcycle gangs, and prison gangs are criminally active in the U.S. today. Many are sophisticated and well organized; all use violence to control neighborhoods and boost their illegal money-making activities, which include robbery, drug and gun trafficking, prostitution and human trafficking, and fraud. Many gang members continue to commit crimes even after being sent to jail.
#9 Collectively, it has been estimated that those gangs have about a million members.
#10 Gangs account for about 80 percent of the violent crimes that are committed in the U.S. each year.
#11 In 2023, there were 127,436 rapes reported in the United States.
#12 For the most recent year that we have data, it was being estimated that more than 550,000 U.S. children “were victims of abuse and neglect”…
An estimated 558,899 children (unique incidents) were victims of abuse and neglect in the U.S. in 2022, the most recent year for which there is national data.
#13 If you can believe it, there are 795,000 registered sex offenders in this country.
More than 795,000 people were listed on state sex offender registries as of August 2024. This is about 8,000 more people than in 2023.
#14 There are 75,710 registered sex offenders in the state of Texas.
#15 There are 60,615 registered sex offenders in the state of California.
What in the world is wrong with us?
What would cause people to behave this way?
At this point, our society is literally teeming with evil. In my brand new book entitled “Why”, I take a look at the root causes that motivate people to do what they do. It isn’t an accident that our society has gone completely and utterly nuts. It is simply a result of cause and effect.
As a society, we have been doing the wrong things for a very long time, and so now we have a giant mess on our hands.
Let us hope for better things in 2025, because right now lawlessness is thriving all around us.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 16:25 - Biden Unveils Bigger 'Surge' In Arms To Ukraine, With Just 3 Weeks Till Trump Sworn In
Biden Unveils Bigger ‘Surge’ In Arms To Ukraine, With Just 3 Weeks Till Trump Sworn In
The last week has seen sustained major Russian strikes involving drone and missile barrages targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This followed a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian residential building in Kazan, which is far away from the front lines.
Wednesday alone saw Russia fire some 170 drones and missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing several deaths and widespread power outages. “The purpose of this outrageous attack was to cut off the Ukrainian people’s access to heat and electricity during winter and to jeopardize the safety of its grid,” Biden commented in the aftermath.
With a little over three weeks to go until President-Elect Donald Trump enters the White House, President Biden has ordered a ‘surge’ in US weapons to the Zelensky government.
Via Reuters “In recent months, the United States has provided Ukraine with hundreds of air defense missiles, and more are on the way,” Biden said, and stressed:
“I have directed the Department of Defense to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and the United States will continue to work tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in its defense against Russian forces.”
Biden also sought to emphasize the holiday the timing of the attack – though it should be noted that the Orthodox Church in both Russia and Ukraine observe Christmas on December 25th according to the Julian calendar, which is January 7th on the civil calendar. Thus Christmas in the region is actually still a week-and-a-half away…
“Launching large-scale missile and drone attacks on the day of the Lord’s birth is wrong,” Biden asserted. “The world is closely watching actions on both sides. The U.S. is more resolved than ever to bring peace to the region.”
Thursday saw Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responding to Biden’s warnings by saying the Kremlin could still order attacks on Ukraine’s decision-making centers.
“We select targets for strikes on the territory of Ukraine, proceeding solely from threats to Russia. These may be military facilities and defense enterprises,” Lavrov said. “Decision-making centers in Kiev can also quite be such targets,” he added.
On Friday White House national security official John Kirby announced that the US is set to approve yet another security package for Ukraine as part of the ‘surge’ in arms. The Associated Press details Friday afternoon:
The United States is expected to announce that it will send $1.25 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Friday, as the Biden administration pushes to get as much aid to Kyiv as possible before leaving office on Jan. 20.
The large package of aid includes a significant amount of munitions, including for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and the HAWK air defense system. It also will provide Stinger missiles and 155 mm- and 105 mm artillery rounds, officials said.
But by many accounts on the ground, Ukraine’s chief disadvantage lies more in severe manpower shortages in the face of the advancing Russians. This extra surge in weaponry is not expected to make a big difference on the battlefield.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 15:40 - MEGA '25: How Trump Can Make Ethereum Great Again In 2025
MEGA ’25: How Trump Can Make Ethereum Great Again In 2025
Authored by Tom Mitchelhill via CoinTelegraph.com,
Ethereum’s Ether has been marred by under-performance over the last 18 months, seeing Bitcoin and a swathe of other alternative layer-1 coins, including the likes of Solana and Sui, dramatically outperforming it.
While ETH has gained 88% in the last 18 months, SOL has posted a 1,040% gain, and SUI has rallied 448% in the same timeframe.
“ETH got sandwiched in 2024 between two shiny objects: Bitcoin, which attracted a huge amount of institutional interest, and Solana, which gained traction with retail investors. ETH was the odd man out,” Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan told Cointelegraph.
However, many crypto pundits believe the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the expected crypto-friendly stance of key agencies under his new administration could mark the turning point for the performance of Ether in the crypto market. After all, the incoming president’s family launched its own decentralized finance (DeFi) project, World Liberty Financial, on the chain.
Experts are looking at a swathe of new developments for a bullish stance on ETH heading into 2025, ranging from the demise of “financial nihilism” to a complete overhaul of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, positive regulatory developments, Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF) staking, and increased Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight of crypto.
Alternative layer-1 coins like SOL and SUI have drastically outperformed ETH. Source: TradingView
“Ethereum is poised to benefit more [from a Trump win] than other protocols, especially since it’s just a lot bigger and more mature than all the other ecosystems other than Bitcoin, which is mature but narrow in its purview,” Consensys CEO Joe Lubin told Cointelegraph at Devcon 2024.
At the same time, the gloss has started to come off Solana, whose SOL token peaked at an all-time high of $264 a month ago but has since retreated to $192 amid concerns over looming token unlocks.
End of crypto’s financial nihilism
One of the big factors weighing heavily on Ethereum’s price has been the aggressive approach of regulators toward alleged securities violations by ecosystem projects including Uniswap, Consensys, Lido and Rocket Pool. Memecoin projects, meanwhile, have been largely overlooked by the SEC.
A related issue is the disillusionment of crypto natives who were dumped on by venture capitalists during the brutal bear market. Many have turned to fair-launch memecoins and other hyper-speculative assets with little utility. Ikigai Asset Management founder and chief investment officer Travis Kling calls this phenomenon “financial nihilism.”
In a March 12 essay, Kling said financial nihilism gives little if any importance to “fundamentals” or any notion of an underlying “value proposition.”
“Financial Nihilism goes hand in hand with Populism – a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.”
“The underlying drivers of Financial Nihilism and Populism are the same – this system is not working for me, so I want to try something very different (e.g., buy SHIB or vote for Trump),” wrote Kling.
However, Ethereum is sold almost entirely on its fundamentals and utility. Advocates repeatedly make the claim that the blockchain network and its ecosystem of layer 2s stand as the future of legitimate, programmable digital money, smart contracts and decentralized financial activity.
Trump’s SEC overhaul is good for DeFi
Saul Rejwan, managing partner of crypto venture capital firm Masterkey, says Trump’s pro-crypto stance could see financial nihilism fall out of favor as legitimate projects are encouraged by regulators rather than hit with endless Wells notices from the SEC.
On Dec. 4, Trump tapped pro-crypto businessman and former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins as his nominee for the next SEC chair, with current Chair Gary Gensler set to resign from the agency on Jan. 20.
The SEC will be losing three of its Democratic commissioners under Trump, with Jaime Lizarraga set to leave the agency on Jan. 17 and, more recently, the Senate Banking Committee canceling the renomination vote of crypto-skeptic commissioner Caroline Crenshaw on Dec. 17.
As the ruling party, the Republicans would typically appoint a majority of three commissioners, but the rapid-fire resignations and cancellations open the SEC up to a possible line-up of four Republican-appointed, crypto-friendly commissioners if Trump breaks protocol.
Rejwan told Cointelegraph that legitimate sectors of the crypto industry, specifically DeFi and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), stand to benefit most from the new administration and a more crypto-friendly SEC.
“DeFi projects will thrive under a more favorable regulatory environment. Sectors like restaking just need a little regulatory push to hook institutional investors,” he said.
“We expect this new leadership to lower barriers to entry and make it easier for early-stage crypto entrepreneurs and resilient firms to innovate and thrive.”
The Gensler-led SEC under the Biden administration has been famously hostile to DeFi, with the regulator bringing Uniswap, the largest decentralized exchange on Ethereum, into its sights earlier this year.
The SEC has proposed expanding the definition of what qualifies as an exchange in the Exchange Act of 1934, explicitly arguing it should include crypto market participants in DeFi.
Anoop Nannra, CEO of Trugard Labs, said he expects the SEC to undergo a complete overhaul of its enforcement actions and policy directions, saying crypto assets are slated to be classified as “property” under the new administration.
“I’ve heard from several people within Trump’s orbit that property rights are a critical issue for this administration and that this is actually going to be the calling card for the Republican party’s position on crypto,” he said.
“I expect to see a complete revamp of the SEC’s position based on this.”
On Dec. 19, the Token Alliance — which incoming SEC Chair Paul Atkins was co-chair of — met with staffers for SEC Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda and issued its list of priorities. It requested that the agency denounce the controversial 2018 “Hinman speech” and formally withdraw a series of rules that deemed DeFi players to be seen as “exchanges” by law.
The Token Alliance has asked the SEC to walk back a swathe of anti-crypto policies. Source: The Digital Chamber
Nannra said he also expects the CFTC will soften to digital assets as well and that the SEC will engage in more discussions with the CFTC moving forward.
“I expect to see the CFTC take a more progressive position on crypto as well, further re-aligning the oversight powers between the SEC and the CFTC,” Nannra said.
SEC vs. CFTC: Does FIT21 even matter?
Many pundits believe that the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) — a bill that was passed through the House in May — would be central to the alignment of the CFTC and the SEC on crypto.
In short, the bill sought to introduce a federal framework for crypto regulation, pull back some of the SEC’s authority over digital assets, and hand over regulation of spot crypto markets to the CFTC instead.
Because Ether has also been deemed a commodity by the CFTC, several pundits have previously asserted that FIT21 could be highly beneficial for Ethereum from a policy perspective.
But now, with the change in the regulatory landscape, it raises the question of whether or not the FIT21 bill would be necessary or even desirable anymore. The bill may end up becoming just an unnecessary policy bargain made during a hostile time for crypto assets.
In a Nov. 15 client alert, lawyers from legal firm Brownstein noted the bill had stalled but would likely “serve as the starting point for legislative efforts in the new Congress.”
Regardless of whether FIT21 passes, Trump is reportedly considering handing the CFTC oversight over crypto during his upcoming term, which would also classify most crypto projects as commodities if they meet certain criteria.
If the CFTC is given regulatory control of crypto, it could come as a win for the industry, which has long signaled that the agency would be its preferred regulator — with the CFTC widely seen as having a “lighter touch” on regulation.
What legal changes can we expect to see under Trump?
Crypto lawyer Robert Nupp told Cointelegraph that the launch of the Trump dynasty’s World Liberty Financial was one the biggest “soft” endorsements of Ethereum, DeFi and real-world crypto projects. It has already purchased millions of dollars worth of ETH, Chainlink LINK$22.18 and Aave AAVE$326.14.
Nupp believes many within crypto are actually underestimating the positive impact of Trump on the industry.
“Right out of the gate, they’re going to be extremely helpful to crypto.”
Source: Lookonchain
According to Nupp, Trump is using World Liberty Financial as a beacon to show the world exactly how he intends to deal with crypto when he becomes president.
“He’s basically signaling to the world that it’s okay to do this going forward in his administration,” he said.
Nupp also tipped the Trump administration to move extremely quickly on crypto, pointing out Trump’s close ties with Elon Musk and the appointment of David Sacks as crypto and AI czar as evidence of the pace he will set.
“It’s going to be a blitzkrieg.”
ETH staking yields could come to ETFs
SEC Commissioner Peirce has already flagged the potential of revisiting decisions to block in-kind redemptions for crypto ETFs and to add staking for the Ether ETFs.
“If it changes from a majority of commissioners who don’t want things to go through to a majority of commissioners who do want things to go through, then yeah, it’s easier,” she said.
The ETF issuers — including Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton — have all requested the addition of staking, which currently yields approximately 3.1% per year, according to Staking Rewards.
“We believe, under a new Trump 2.0 crypto-friendly SEC, ETH staking yield will likely be approved,” Bernstein said, predicting that growing network activity on Ethereum could see rewards “juice up” to 4%–5%.
Ethereum boasts a 3.11% staking reward rate as of Dec. 24. Source: Staking Rewards
It doesn’t take much to connect the dots on why an ETF offering native yield would be bullish for the underlying asset, particularly in an economic landscape where the US Federal Reserve is looking to drop interest rates further in 2025.
“In a declining rate environment, ETH yield can be quite attractive. The yield feature in ETFs would also leave some spread for asset managers,” Bernstein said, adding that this would improve ETH’s economics and introduce further incentives to push ETH ETFs to institutional investors.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/27/2024 – 15:20
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