- Russia Slides Towards Internal Political Crisis
Submitted by SouthFront,
The Russia of 2019 is in a complicated economic and even political situation. Smoldering conflicts near its borders amid continued pressure from the US and NATO affect the situation in the country negatively. This is manifested in society and in national politics. The approval rating of the Russian government and personally of President Vladimir Putin has been decreasing.
According to VCIOM, a state pollster, in January 2019, Putin’s confidence rating was only 32.8%. This is 24% less than in January 2018 when it was 57.2%. At the same time, the confidence rating of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was 7.8%. The approval rating of his cabinet is 37.7% while the disapproval rating is 38.7%. Opposition sources show data, which is far worse for the current Russian leadership.
This tendency is not linked to the foreign policy course of the Kremlin. Rather, it’s the result of the recent series of liberal-minded economic reforms, which look similar to the approaches exercised by the Russian government in the mid-1990s. The decision to increase Value Added Tax amid the slowing Russian economy, especially in the industrial sector, and a very unpopular pension reform increasing the retirement age were both factors contributing to the further growth of discontent in the population.
Russia’s GDP increased by 2.3% in 2018 compared to 1.6% in 2017. However, the Ministry of Economic Development, in its document entitled “Economic Picture” stated that this is linked to “one-time factors” and is not “stable”. The ministry maintained its earlier forecast stating that GDP growth in 2019 will be 1.3%. It confirmed increasing capital outflow. In this case, the repayment of funds to Western creditors by the Russian private sector is one of the causes.
The Ministry of Economic Development also pointed out that the expendable income of the population decreased by 0.2%. Statutory charges, including the increased taxes, are named as one of the reasons. The document says that statutory charges grew by 14.8% in 2018.
Additionally, the population is facing an increasingly restrictive administrative pressure: new fines and other penalties for minor violations in various fields and additional administrative restrictions limiting the freedom of actions of citizens. Restrictive traffic management of big cities, increasing fees for using federal highways as well as policies that are de-facto aimed at small business and self-employed persons are among its landmarks.
Meanwhile the general population has no effective levers of pressure to affect or correct government policy. The public political sphere has become a desert. United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya) is the only political party still de—facto existing in public politics. By now its ideological and organizational capabilities have become exhausted. Other “political parties and organizations” are just media constructs designed to defend the interests of a narrow group of their sponsors. It is hard to find a lawmaker in the State Duma or the Federation Council, who is not affiliated with the cliquish top political elite and oligarch clans.
In the media sphere, the government has failed to explain its current course to the population. A vast majority of the initiatives of Medvedev’s cabinet face a negative reaction from the population. A spate of scandals involving high and middle level government officials made the situation even worse. These cases revealed blatant hypocrisy and the neglectful attitude to duties of some Russian officials.
Some of the officials even became heroes of nationwide memes. Probably, the most prominent of these heroes are Minister of Labour and Employment of the Saratov region Natalia Sokolova and Head of Department for Youth Policy in the Sverdlov Region Olga Glatskikh.
Sokolova advised Russian pensioners to eat “makaroshki” [a derogatory term for maccheroni] to save money and to thus become able to survive on the subsistence minimum of 3,500 RUB [about 50 USD] per month.
“You will become younger, prettier and slimmer! Makaroshki cost is always the same!”, she said during a meeting of the regional parliamentary group on social policy in October 2018 adding that discounted products can be used to create a “balanced, but dietic” menu.
Glatskikh became a meme hero thank to her meeting with young volunteers during the same month. Commenting on the possible financing of youth projects, she told volunteers that the government did not ask their parents “to give birth” to them. So, they should expect nothing from the state.
In the period from 2018 to 2019, there were multiple arrests of officials caught exceeding the limits of their authority and being involved in corruption schemes. In comparison to previous periods, this number had increased by 1.5-2 times. The most recent detention took place right in the Parliament building on January 30. A 32-year-old senator, Rauf Arashukov, is suspected of being a member of a criminal group involved in the 2010 murders of two people and in pressuring a witness to one of the killings. On the same day, authorities detained his father, an adviser to the chief executive of a Gazprom subsidiary, Raul Arashukov. He is suspected of embezzling natural gas worth 30 billion rubles ($450 million).
However, these actions do not appear to be enough to change the established media situation. After a large-scale corruption scandal in the Ministry of Defense in 2012, which led to almost no consequences for key responsible persons including former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, who even continued his carrier in state-linked corporation Rostec. The general public has serious reservations about any real success of anti-corruption efforts.
The aforementioned factors fuel the negative perception of the Medvedev government and Vladimir Putin as the head of state among Russian citizens.
The 2014 events in Crimea showed to the Russian population that its state is ready to defend the interests of the nation and those who describe themselves as Russians even by force of arms. This was the first case when this approach was openly employed in the recent history of Russia. Therefore, the population was enthusiastic and national pride was on the rise. However, the Kremlin failed to exploit these gained opportunities and did not use them to strengthen the Russian state. In fact, up to February 2019, the policy towards eastern Ukraine has been inconsistent. At the same time, Moscow continues to lose its influence in post-Soviet states. This can be observed in both the Caucasus and Central Asia. Even, their close ally, Belarus, occasionally demonstrates unfriendly behavior and focuses its own efforts on the exploitation of economic preferences granted by Russia.
Evaluating the current internal political situation in Russia and its foreign policy course, it’s possible to say that the Russian leadership has lost its clear vision of national development and a firm and consistent policy, which are needed for any great power. Another explanation of this is that the Russian leadership is facing pressure from multiple agents of influence, which stand against vision of a powerful independent state seeking to act as one of the centers of power on the global stage. One more factor, often pointed out by experts, is the closed crony-caste system of elites. This system led to the creation of a leadership, which pursues its own narrow clannish interests. Apparently, all of these factors influence Russian foreign and domestic policies in one way or another.
The aforementioned large-scale anti-corruption campaign, regarding the people’s show-me attitude towards its result, could be a sign of a new emerging trend, which would lead to a purge of the corrupt elites and to strategic changes in Russian domestic policy.
It is highly likely that Russia will face hard times in the next two years (2019-2020) and face various threats and challenges to its economy, foreign policy course and even to its statehood.
- Venezuela Set For More False Flags… US Puppet Guaido Better Watch His Back
Authored by Finian Cunningham,
The much-hyped “aid weekend” involving a US Trojan Horse fell at the first hurdle. Venezuelan government forces averted the provocation intended by US aid convoys from Colombia and Brazil.
However, increasing frustration in Washington beckons more false flags.
Something shocking is “needed” in order to jolt world opinion into acquiescing to Washington’s criminal agenda of “all options.” In the fiendish mind of American imperialism, it is also prudent to consider “all options” as meaning more than military aggression. The foulest moves.
The torching of trucks purportedly ferrying US food and medicines across the border from Colombia was patently a planned provocation. Credible video footage and witnesses attested to the arson being carried out by supporters of the US-backed opposition figure Juan Guaido.
The vehicles never even made it to the crossing point where Venezuelan national guards were deployed.
Yet, at the Lima Group summit held – no coincidence – in the Colombian capital, Bogota on Monday, Guaido and US Vice President Mike Pence brazenly spouted lies that the “sadistic” Venezuelan military under President Nicolas Maduro had caused the destruction of vital aid supplies intended for “suffering people.”
It seems obvious the whole scenario of delivering US aid into Venezuela from neighboring countries was really intended as a pretext for military intervention by Washington. The government in Caracas had warned of such a contingency in advance, as had Russia, which is allied to President Maduro’s administration. Moscow’s experience in Syria has no doubt given a lot of valuable insights into the American playbook of using false flags for justifying military aggression.
The timing of the Lima Group summit – 12 Latin American states along with the US and Canada – was meant to capitalize on the false-flag incident over aid, as well as other deadly clashes at the weekend that resulted in dozens of casualties.
However, the provocation did not go to plan, despite Pence and Guaido’s grandstanding assertions.
The other downside for the US regime-change objective in Venezuela is that the Lima Group has for the moment broken ranks over the military option. Pence and Guaido stepped up the rhetoric calling for “all options” on the table – meaning military intervention.
But the Lima Group, including US allies Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, issued a statement after the summit Monday rejecting any military action. They are still functioning as lackeys by calling for a “peaceful transition to democracy” and are in favor of the dubious US-anointed opposition figure Guaido, recognizing him as the “interim president” of Venezuela, in accordance with Washington’s desires.
Nevertheless, repudiation of the military option by Washington’s regional allies will be seen as a damper to the momentum for using American force to overthrow the Maduro government.
Brazil’s Vice President Hamilton Mourão repeatedly said in interviews that his government would not allow a US military incursion into Venezuela from its territory.
The European Union also said it was opposed to any military force being used by the US against Venezuela.
The emerging situation therefore puts the regime-change planners in Washington in a quandary. Their sanctions pressure for blackmailing defections in the Venezuelan political and military leadership has failed. So too has the much-vaunted spectacle of delivering US aid.
Growing frustration on the US side was evident from the obscene posting of “snuff movies” by Florida Senator Marco Rubio, comparing the bloody fate of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi with what might happen to Maduro.
Rubio has become something of an unofficial envoy for regime change in Venezuela on behalf of the Trump administration, in the same way the late Senator John McCain performed his role in helping prompt a coup d’état in Ukraine back in 2014. As well as conveying death threats to Maduro concerning Gaddafi, who was brutally lynched by NATO-backed jihadists in October 2011, Rubio also posted images of former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega. Noriega was captured by US forces after they bombed and invaded his country in 1989.
The criminality of Rubio and other senior US officials, including President Trump, openly calling for regime change against Maduro is a sign of how manic Washington has become in getting its hands on the country’s vast oil wealth. There isn’t even a hint of coyness about the criminality.
The desperation for regime change in Venezuela by Washington has only become more frenzied as its machinations appear to be coming unstuck.
Therefore, it can be anticipated, Washington needs a game-changing event – badly – in order to shift its lackey Lima Group, the EU and the United Nations to accepting its agenda for a military option.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has strongly appealed for no violence in the stand-off between the US and Venezuela. Significantly, the UN has declined to get involved in delivering US aid to the South American country, as such involvement would be viewed as taking sides.
Voice of America quotes Dany Bahar, a Venezuela expert at the DC think-tank the Brookings Institution, as saying that the next steps for Washington in its pressure campaign on the “Maduro regime” is “to try to get the United Nations on board, which has not happened yet.”
Ominously, the Lima Group has issued a statement claiming to have credible evidence that Juan Guaido’s life is seriously threatened by Venezuelan state security. Pence also warned that Maduro would be held responsible for Guaido and his family’s safety. Last month, Guaido made claims that his wife’s family was menaced by state agents who allegedly visited their home. It was an unconfirmed claim, which the Venezuelan authorities denied.
Guaido defied a travel ban to attend the summit in Bogota earlier this week. It is not clear if he will return to Venezuela as he is liable to be arrested on charges of inciting sedition and civil unrest.
Indeed, Washington’s game plan does not seem to be going well. Through a series of miscalculations and foolish over-reach, the gambit in Venezuela is at risk of becoming a debacle.
That very situation, however, could tempt a desperate throw of the dice by the Trump administration to salvage its losses so far.
A major, shocking event is needed, it may be calculated, in order to get the Latin American and European lackeys into line on regime-change policy, specifically the military option. As the Brookings Institute pundit said, “to get the United Nations on board.” Because so far, the majority of the UN members, including Russia and China, key UN Security Council veto powers, are not complying with Washington’s dictate of delegitimizing President Maduro and recognizing the US-backed puppet figure Guaido.
What could such a shocking event entail? Somebody is telling the Lima Group that Guaido and his family are in grave danger of being assassinated. Guaido’s Popular Will party is known to engage in violent subversion and allegedly has links to the American CIA, as reported by Abby Martin and others.
As easily as they are lionized, US puppets can be just as easily disposed of. Guaido playing the dirty game of regime change with the most criminal organization in the world – the US government – is a very dangerous game. He’d better watch his back.
- The California Dream Is In Nevada: Golden State Expats Flock To Las Vegas Suburb
It’s no secret that California residents, particularly people residing in the most expensive parts of the state (SoCal, the Bay Area) are fleeing in droves, displaced by expensive rents, sky-high home prices, unbearable traffic congestion and – oh yeah – increasingly deadly wildfires. As a result, California expat communities have sprung up in Texas, Arizona, Idaho and Nevada, sun-belt states where residents can enjoy many of the benefits of California living (namely, the agreeable climate and booming economy) without the downsides.
But in some of the most desirable communities, the influx of Californians has grown into a flood that is straining public resources – residents complain of crowded class sizes and home prices, while still lower on an absolute basis, are seeing some of the fastest increases in the country.
One such community is Henderson, Nev., a suburb of Las Vegas where the Oakland Raiders recently started construction on a new practice facility in preparation for their move to Las Vegas. As the Wall Street Journal reported, Henderson has become a place where California expats can enjoy a better standard of living (and even have some money left over after paying their mortgage) while spending less time sitting in SoCal’s notoriously brutal traffic. Just ask John Falkenthal, a software engineer from San Diego, who sold his home in SD and moved to Henderson a year ago.
“I never even considered leaving Southern California, but it took me every dime I had to buy a home there,” said the 54-year-old Mr. Falkenthal, a software engineer who moved to Henderson from San Diego last October.
[…]
Mr. Falkenthal initially looked for a house in San Diego after selling his former home following a divorce three years ago. But his half of the proceeds, about $250,000, would have paid for only a small townhouse or condo in the coastal area where he lived, he said.
Instead, he bought a three-bedroom, two-story house in Henderson in October for $416,000.
“My quality of life went up the day I moved here,” said Mr. Falkenthal pointing to his pool table and his musical equipment.
And that’s before taxes and insanely high utilities prices (which, thanks to PG&E’s bankruptcy, might climb for some residents). One Cali expat who spoke to WSJ says he saved $5,000 on his water bill alone in a year.
Net migration out of California topped 100,000 in 2015, 2016 and 2017, according to the Census Bureau. And between 2006 and 2017, a total of 1.24 million Californians left the state, never to return, the third highest total in the country, behind only New York and Illinois. That should hardly come as a surprise in a state where buying a home is only affordable for 28% of the population, as the median home prices nearly doubled between 2012 and 2018. As more residents struggle to get away, new births and immigrants from abroad (including plenty of illegal aliens) are the only reason California’s population has continued to expand.
Las Vegas, and the surrounding area, has emerged as one of the most popular destinations for these expats.
More than half of new arrivals in Henderson – some 56% – between 2013 and 2017 were from California. In some of the ritzier areas, including new luxury developments, as many as 70% of the residents hailed from the Golden State.
Many retirees have chosen to settle down in Nevada, instead of California, where they also enjoy being relatively close to their grandchildren. Bill and Cindy Clune, told WSJ that financial considerations were a big part of their decision to move.
Mr. Clune, 62 years old, and his wife Cindy, 63, both retirees, persuaded their daughter and cousin, along with two other couples, to follow them to Henderson after they moved here three years ago. In addition to saving money, escaping the California traffic was a big draw. Mr. Clune said he used to spend as much as two hours each way commuting from his home in Temecula to his manufacturing business in North Hollywood.
“Here, they complain if you have to spend 30 minutes in traffic,” Mr. Clune said.
There are things he and his wife miss in California, though. “We have four grandkids there, and would love to see them more often,” he said. “And the beach is nice.”
Pretty soon, retirees like the Clune might find their family members coming to stay with them instead of the other way around. Because, according to one recent survey, more than half of California’s 40 million residents wish they could escape from their own personal California nightmare.
- Regime Change is Urgently Needed… In Washington
Authored by Andre Vitchek via Off-Guardian.org,
I am surprised that no one else is saying it, writing it, shouting it at each and every corner: It is not Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Iran that are in dire and crucial need of ‘regime change’. It is the United States of America, it is the entire European Union; in fact, the entire West.
And the situation is urgent.
The West has gone mad; it has gone so to speak, bananas; mental. And people there are too scared to even say it, to write about it.
One country after another is falling, being destroyed, antagonized, humiliated, impoverished. Entire continents are treated as if they were inhabited by irresponsible toddlers, who are being chased and disciplined by sadistic adults, with rulers and belts in their hands yelling with maniacal expressions on their faces: “Behave, do as we say, or else!”
It all would be truly comical, if it weren’t so depressing. But… nobody is laughing. People are shaking, sweating, crying, begging, puking, but they are not chuckling.
I see it everywhere where I work: in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.
But why?
It is because North American and European countries are actually seriously delivering their ultimatum: you either obey us, and prostrate yourself in front of us, or we will break you, violate you, and if everything else fails, we will kill your leaders and all of those who are standing in our way.
This is not really funny, is it? Especially considering that it is being done to almost all the countries in what is called Latin America, to many African and Middle Eastern nations, and to various states on the Asian continent.
And it is all done ‘professionally’, with great sadistic craftsmanship and rituals. No one has yet withstood ‘regime change’ tactics, not even the once mighty Soviet Union, nor tremendous China, or proud and determined Afghanistan.
Cuba, Venezuela, DPRK and Syria may be the only countries that are still standing. They resisted and mobilized all their resources in order to survive; and they have survived, but at a tremendous price.
The victims keep crying. A few independent countries keep expressing their outrage. But so far, there is no grand coalition, which would be ready to fight and defend each other: “one for all, all for one”.
Until the recent ‘rebellion’ at the UN, no one has been openly and seriously suggesting that international law should apply to all nations of the world, equally.
People talk about ‘peace’. Many are begging the brigands to ‘to stop’, to ‘have mercy’, to show some compassion. But, neither Europe nor North America has ever shown any compassion, for long, terrible centuries. Look at the map of the beginning of the 20th century, for instance: the entire world was colonized, plundered and subjugated.
Now it is all moving in the same direction. If the West is not stopped, our planet may not survive at all. And let us be realistic: begging, logical arguments and goodwill will not stop Washington, Paris or London from plundering and enslaving.
Anyone who has at least some basic knowledge of world history knows that.
So why is the world still not forging some true resistance?
Is Venezuela going to be the last straw? And if not Venezuela, that is if Venezuela is allowed to fall, is it going to be Nicaragua, Cuba or Iran next? Is anything going to propel people into action?
Are we all just going to look passively how, the socialist Venezuela, a country which has already given so much to the world, Venezuela which managed to create beautiful visions and concepts for our humanity, is going to be burned to ashes, and then robbed of all of its dreams, its resources and of its freedom?
Are we all such cowards? Is this what we – human beings – have actually become; been reduced to? Cowards and cattle, selfish and submissive beings; slaves?
All this, simply because people are too scared to confront the empire? Because they prefer to hide and to pretend that what is so obvious, is actually not taking place?
Therefore, let me pronounce it, so at least my readers do not have that ‘luxury’ of claiming that they were not told:
This world is being brutalized and controlled by the fascist clique of Western nations. There is no ‘democracy’ left in this world, as there is near zero respect for international law in North American and European capitals. Colonialism has returned in full force. Western imperialism is now almost fully controlling the world.
And begging, trust me – begging and talking of peace is not going to help.
During WWII, fascism had to be stopped. If not, it was going to devour the entire planet. In the past, tens of millions have already died fighting for freedom and for our mankind. Yes, some nations tried to compromise and negotiate with Nazi Germany, but we all know where it all ended.
Now, the situation is the same. Or worse, perhaps much worse, because the West has nukes and a tremendous propaganda apparatus: it controls human brains all over the world with ‘mass media’, and ‘education’.
And because the citizens of the West are now much more brainwashed than the Germans and Italians were in the late 1930’s and early 1940’s; more brainwashed, more scared, submissive and more ‘disciplined’.
Look, seriously: are the people who are now writing those “peace essays”, in which they argue with the Western regime about who is right and who is wrong, seriously thinking that they are going to move people like Donald Trump, or Pompeo, or Abrams, or Rubio?
Do they believe that Washington is going to stop murdering millions of people all over the world? Or that the neo-colonialist plunder would stop, after the US Congress and Senate suddenly understands that it has been at the wrong side of history?
This is not some rhetorical question. I am serious: I demand answers!
Does ‘peace movement’ thinks that by amassing arguments it could stop Western expansionism? Yes or no?
Do they believe that Pompeo or Trump will suddenly hit their foreheads and exclaim: “You people are correct! We did not see this!” And call their troops, their thugs and mercenaries back?
If not, if this is not what peace movements believe would be done by North American and European leaders, then why all those thousands of wasted pages?
Would you go near a crocodile that is ready to devour an innocent child, and try to reason with it? Would you, seriously? Do you think it would stop, drop a few tears, wag its tail and leave?
Sometimes I tend to believe that ‘peace movements’ in the West are making things worse. They create false hopes, and they behave as if the empire is some entity that has a soul, and understands logic. They grossly underestimate the threat; the danger.
And they tend to analyze the Western threat from a Western perspective, using Western logic.
It somehow gets lost in interpretation that fascism, terror, and bestiality have to be confronted and fought.
One cannot negotiate with a group of countries which are already bathed in the blood of some 80% of the planet. If it was to happen, it would just be a mockery and it would simply humiliate everyone that is sincerely trying to stop the assassins.
Right now, Venezuela needs solidarity. It requires direct help, actions; not words. And so do many other countries.
Instead, it gets an endless avalanche of best wishes, as well as premature obituaries.
The Bolivarian Revolution has gotten plenty of colorful words. But what it urgently needs is volunteers, money, and internationalist brigades!
I know that billions of people all over the world are now cheering from their armchairs; in fact, doing absolutely nothing, while also spending zero. Their love for Venezuela is ‘platonic’.
I have just left Syria, where I was covering the Idlib war zone. There was not one single foreigner near me, during those days. Eva Bartlett and Vanessa Beeley usually work all over the toughest areas in Syria, but how many others do? And most of the time we work with near zero backing, just because we feel that it is our moral obligation to inform humanity.
I am wondering, how many foreigners are fighting for Venezuela, right now?
Who is going to face the Western spooks implanted into the Caracas and the Venezuelan borders with Colombia and Brazil? A few RT and TeleSur reporters, those true heroes, yes, but who else?
Only direct action can save Venezuela, and the world.
This is no time for debates.
This is worse, much worse than the late 1930’s.
The proverbial crocodile is here; its enormous ugly mouth open, ready to devour yet one more brilliant, proud country.
It is time to stick a big metal rod into its mouth. Now, immediately; before it gets too late.
Let us shout LONG LIVE VENEZUELA! But with our hands, muscles and purses, not just with our mouths.
And let us not be scared to declare: if anywhere, it is Washington where regime change is truly and urgently needed!
- RaboBank: "Another Remarkable Day Of Drama"
Submitted by Michael Every of RaboBank
Another remarkable day of drama. Amazingly, the summit between US President Trump and North Korea’s Kim doesn’t get top billing anywhere in most media. Partly that’s the political equivalent of “the difficult second album” problem, and partly it’s what is going on elsewhere.
In the US Congress we had three sets of remarkably testy testimony. First was Trump’s ex-lawyer Michael Cohen, who delivered allegations that in another time would have been so politically devastating no president could be expected to survive them: that Trump is a racist conman who has committed crimes while in office, and that Cohen fears he won’t leave office if he loses the 2020 presidential election. However, these are not ordinary times, this is not an ordinary president, Cohen is not an ordinary lawyer given he is facing jail as a perjurer…and a dispassionate view does not suggest there was actually anything new in any of those sometimes very wild charges.
Crucially, even though we heard there are fresh investigations into Trump on-going in New York, there were no new smoking guns on Russia in particular, and perhaps the most explosive material was a cheque signed by Trump apparently used to reimburse Cohen for his pay-off to porn star Stormy Daniels – but even that appears to be a minor (USD35,000) campaign finance violation. In short, this was hardly a good day for Trump, but was it actually enough to say he will be impeached or fail to win again in 2020 due to it? That still looks very unlikely at this stage. At this stage, is any US voter’s opinion on Trump going to be swung either way? Really? And is there a genuine legal threat? Not until after 2020, apparently. In fact from a legal perspective this kind of backdrop deeply incentivises Trump to win again as he is in a far stronger position to face down various legal challenges while in office. Nonetheless, we can be assured that these kind of events are going to be a permanent fixture into 2020. Cohen is back tomorrow behind closed doors, for example.
Second was US Trade Representative Lighthizer, who shot down hopes for a US-China trade deal. Lighthizer noted that plans to hike tariffs on USD200bn of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% are now suspended, which the same Wall Street Journal trade journalists that are always telling us a deal is close seems to think is again a sign that a deal is close. However, Lighthizer also said more Chinese purchases of US agri and gas are not enough and that structural issues are key. Moreover, we heard that the proposed enforcement mechanism to make sure China is “subject to corrective action should it fall short of its commitments”. Apparently this would mean monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual meetings at various levels of government, and companies would have the chance to make complaints anonymously: failure of the Chinese to address these would then see the US take appropriate unilateral action. Seriously, does anyone think Beijing is going to allow itself to be held to outside standards like this? Consider that Beijing makes crystal clear that it does not allow independent judiciaries as the Communist Party remains supreme: is it going to let US trade bureaucrats tell it what to do? Markets are still in denial about this – or at least emerging markets are. Lighthizer also stressed the importance of Congress passing the USMCA, because out of sight out of mind that hasn’t happened yet.
Third was the Fed’s Powell, who was repeating his semi-annual testimony but didn’t generate the kind of fireworks one might have expected in Q&A from Democratic Representatives. Instead, Powell noted that QT won’t run too much further and will end this year, decried the rise in student debt, and underlined the US needs higher productivity. In short, nothing really exciting, but positive in as much as the threat of QT will end later in 2019.
Naturally, the backdrop of India and Pakistan moving close to the brink of war pushed Trump and Kim down the news agenda too – although CNN, etc., still felt that Michael Cohen’s testimony was vastly more important. While Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has made a nudge-nudge wink-wink reference to the two countries’ nuclear weapons and has offered India a potential off-ramp from further escalation after his own military response to Indian airstrikes (and a video has shown a captured Indian pilot saying “The tea is fantastic”) it is still not assured this crisis is contained.
Meanwhile, apart from a laudatory tweet from Trump on Vietnam’s economic dynamism, and suggestions that this is the future that is apparently on offer from the US if Kim will become its friend, we have little concrete to trade off. Apparently there will be a joint agreement signing ceremony today: will that see something dramatic? Certainly Trump could do with the good press just as much as Kim.
And back in the UK
What an unbelievable world we live in: even more so given that Bohemian Rhapsody won several Oscars for what was basically a high-budget school play on my viewing of it. If you want to watch Queen’s Live Aid triumph just go to YouTube: why bother with a facsimile?
- Ford "Quietly" Laying Off Thousands From Its China Joint Venture
At a time when global auto sales are grinding to what feels like inevitable prolonged recession, the world is taking many of its industry cues from China. Which is why it is notable that Ford’s China JV would be laying off “thousands” of workers according to the NYT.
Thousands of the JV’s 20,000 total workers are expected to be laid off as a result of weak auto sales in the world’s second largest economy – a sign of continuing weakness for autos (and the overall economy) heading into the second quarter of 2019. Layoffs recently “quietly begun”, according to additional reporting from Reuters. Neither Ford nor its China JV, formed in partnership with Changan Automobile Group, had a comment on the reported layoffs Wednesday morning.
Car sales in China continued their relentless descent in January, falling 17.7%, as we recently expected would happen when discussing Europe’s tumbling January auto sales. This follows the country’s first full year slump (2018) in more than two decades and it puts further pressure on the state of the global automotive market.
The drop marked the eighth monthly retail sales decline in a row and was the biggest one-month drop in seven years. Gu Yatao, a Beijing-based auto analyst with Roland Berger, confirmed to Bloomberg that the “downward pressure is still there. The government isn’t adopting stimulating policies to give the market a shot in the arm.”
The contraction in China comes at the same time that auto markets in Europe and North America continue to shrink as a result of car sharing services and slowing economies. As we have been reporting for months, the slowdown in China continues to be a result of the country’s slowing economy, coupled with the lagging trade war with the United States. Even discounts for the Chinese New Year, which traditionally can help spur sales, weren’t enough to keep consumers in showrooms early this year.
It’s a “historic slump” for China: the wholesale decline in January, to 2.02 million units, accelerated from December’s 15.8% slump. For 2018, the drop was 4.1%, marking the first decrease since the early 1990s.
Back in early February we reported that automakers had started off 2019 with absolutely abhorrent sales numbers in the U.S., as well. Ford at the time – which no longer reports official monthly sales numbers, just like GM – was the one exception, rising 7% versus estimates of -1.5%, according to Bloomberg who cited “people familiar”. GM, on the other hand, fell 7% versus estimates of -3.7%.
Japanese car giants Nissan and Toyota also both posted losses that were larger than expected and companies like Fiat Chrysler and Honda saw their meek gains falling below expectations. As was expected – and stop us if you’ve heard this one before – most companies wound up blaming the cold weather. Honda got creative and also blamed the government shutdown.
The results also indicated that the annualized industry sales rate has slowed more than estimated.
- Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil And World Peak Coal?
Authored by Gail Tverberg via OurFiniteWorld.com,
Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their cost of production. There often are supply gluts at the same time.
This strange situation arises because prices must be high enough for the producersat the same time that goods and services made by oil (and other energy products) are inexpensive enough for consumers to afford. There is a two way battle taking place:
(1) Prices producers require tend to rise over time, because of depletion. The easiest to extract portion of any resource (such as oil, coal, copper, or lithium) tends to be removed first. What is left tends to be deeper, lower quality, or otherwise more difficult to extract cheaply.
(2) Prices consumers can afford for discretionary goods (such as cell phones and automobiles) tend to fall for a combination of reasons:
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Wages of many workers fall because of competition from lower cost labor in other countries.
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Some jobs are eliminated through the use of computers or robots.
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Young people are increasingly being required to pay for higher education (beyond that which is provided free), leaving many with loans to repay, reducing their discretionary income.
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Changes to US healthcare law (mostly starting January 1, 2014) lead to required health insurance premiums. While some citizens find cost savings in this approach, healthy young people often experience cutbacks in discretionary income as a result.
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Rents and home prices keep rising faster than incomes.
When the discretionary income of the many non-elite workers of the world falls, they buy fewer finished goods and services. Finished goods and services are manufactured using commodities of many kinds, including oil, coal, copper, iron ore, and fresh water. When discretionary demand falls, commodity prices tend to fall. This is the problem we are encountering now. It tends to cause the prices of many commodities to fall below the cost of production. Eventually, producers decide to quit because production is no longer profitable. This is the issue that leads to peak oil, coal or copper.
Figure 1. Illustration showing why falling affordability creates a conflict between supply and demand.
If the Affordability Price Clash Mostly Affects Non-Elite Workers, Does It Matter?
When I talk about non-elite workers, I am talking about workers who are in the bottom 90% of the wage distribution. Elite workers will always have enough income for the necessities of life. There are so many non-elite workers in the world that they, indeed, do make a difference.
Also, the forces that adversely affect non-elite workers tend to have several effects:
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They tend to send a larger share of wages to elite workers, as the economy becomes more complex and more specialized.
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They tend to send more unearned income to elite workers, through capital appreciation, because elite workers can afford to buy shares of stock and expensive homes.
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The wealthy spend their income differently from non-elite workers. Non-elite workers tend to spend the bulk of their discretionary income on devices made using commodities, such as cell phones and automobiles. The wealthy are likely to spend their discretionary income in less energy intensive ways, such as investing in shares of stock and buying services such as private college education for their children.
History shows that economies tend to collapse when wage and wealth disparity becomes too great. Collapse can take various forms, including revolutions by the disgruntled underclass, increased susceptibility to epidemics, or the financial collapse of governments. Wars become more likely, as one country tries to aid its citizens at the expense of citizens of other countries.
The world today seems to be approaching a crisis point with respect to wage and wealth disparity. Young people in particular are adversely affected. Figure 2 shows a chart indicating that wage disparity seems to be back to the level it was at the time of the Great Depression of the 1930s. This was also a time of low commodity prices and gluts of food and oil.
Figure 2. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
Gluts tend to occur because commodity prices rise to a level where devices made with these commodities (such as cell phones and automobiles) become too expensive for non-elite workers to afford. Elite workers can still afford the devices, but there are not enough elite workers to make up for the shortfall in non-elite buyers of these devices, so industrial output per capita tends to fall.
Figure 3 shows the important role that the wages of non-elite workers play in generating adequate demand. If their wages are high enough, they can buy enough goods and services made with commodities to keep commodity prices high. With sufficiently high commodity prices, production can continue.
Figure 3: Chart showing the important role that the wages of non-elite workers play in maintaining energy demand. With adequate demand, prices can remain high enough for production to continue.
Why the Peak in World Oil Production Likely Occurred in 2018
If we look at recent oil data, we see a pattern of growing gluts in supply, as indicated by the red bars in Figure 4. Even in the most recent week, the week ending February 15, 2019, after all of the cuts begun by OPEC and other oil exporters, US crude oil stocks continue to build. This is not the impact a person would expect, if the production cuts are truly effective!
Figure 4. Brent average quarterly oil price (in January 2019$), with an indication of quarters when world crude oil inventories are building. Oil prices are Brent spot oil prices, adjusted using the CPI-Urban to January 2019 prices levels. World inventory build quarters are based on indications shown in US Short Term Energy Outlook reports of various publication dates.
This is precisely the kind of signal we would expect, if products made with oil (and using oil in their operation) are becoming increasingly unaffordable for the non-elite workers of the world. Note that these bars are becoming more frequent and are occurring at lower prices. This is the expected outcome of a clash between the falling discretionary income of non-elite workers and the rising costs of oil producers.
When prices fall too low, producers cut back production. OPEC reports its view of the effect of recent production cutbacks in Figure 5.
Figure 5. OPEC and world oil supply, in chart from OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for February 2019.
Given the nearly worldwide problem of falling affordability of goods by non-elite workers, we should not be surprised if the peaks in oil production in October and November 2018 ultimately prove to be the maximum production ever recorded. In fact, it seems quite likely that the year 2018 will prove to be the year with the highest-ever oil production.
The cutback in production will appear to be voluntary. Once cutbacks start, they will tend to feed upon themselves. Unless oil prices really spike following the cutbacks (say, to $90 per barrel), exporting countries will find themselves worse off after the cutbacks, for a combination of reasons:
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The cutback in production will reduce the number of workers directly and indirectly employed by the oil industry. Their reduced spending will lead to a need for expanded government programs.
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Housing prices will fall in oil exporting countries. This is likely to ultimately lead to debt defaults.
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Tax revenue that governments of oil exporters can collect on the smaller amount of oil will be lower, even though the needs of the economy will be greater.
Ultimately, it seems likely that at least some governments of oil exporting countries will be overthrown, depressing oil production further. If the breakeven price for most OPEC members, including necessary tax revenue, was over $100 per barrel in 2014, it is hard to see how exporters can get along with much less today.
World Coal Production: Following a Similar Pattern to Oil?
One thing that most people don’t realize is that coal prices follow a very similar pattern to those of oil.
Figure 6. Sample world coal prices, based on information from 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In Figure 6, coal prices experience a major peak in 2008, followed by a lower peak in the 2011 period, which peters out by 2013. Prices recently are much lower than in the 2008 period, or in the 2011 to 2013 period. This pattern is very similar to the recent pattern in oil prices.
The similarity in the patterns of coal prices and oil prices makes perfect sense if prices of both oil and coal are based primarily on affordability, and this affordability depends heavily on the wages of non-elite workers. When countries, such as China, ramp up their debt, more non-elite workers can be hired at higher wages. These workers can make more computers, automobiles, steel ingots, and many other goods. They can also afford to buy more output of the world economy. This ramped up demand tends to raise the prices of both coal and oil.
For many commodities, China’s demand represents close to half of the world demand. China has become the world’s number one manufacturer of goods. China needs growing energy consumption to maintain its growth of manufactured goods because it takes energy to operate machines, even computers. It even takes energy to keep the lights on.
Unfortunately, with the recent lower prices for coal and oil, China is experiencing lower production of both coal and oil (Figure 7). Without growing energy supplies, China cannot meet the world’s growing need for manufactured goods.
Figure 7. China energy production by fuel, based on 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data.
The reason why China has recently reduced production of both coal and oil is the usual one: the rising cost of production conflicts with the low prices available in the marketplace, making production unprofitable for a growing share of producers.
How about China’s total energy consumption? Do imports make up for China’s lack of local production?
Figure 8. China energy production by fuel, with a line added to indicated it total energy consumption, including imports. Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
Not really. China is the world’s largest importer of coal, oil and natural gas. It is also the number one user of wind and solar (included in the tiny orange “Other Renewables” portion of the chart). Even with these huge additions to China’s energy production, its annual growth in the quantity of energy it consumes (including imports) has plummeted (Figure 9).
Figure 9. China annual growth in total energy consumption. Based on 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energydata.
China reports that its real GDP growth rate is still very high (over 6%, net of inflation), but many observers are skeptical of this claim. Certainly, going forward, its coal and oil production cannot continue to decline, or the economy will encounter huge problems. The amount of goods China will be able to manufacture will fall, as will the number of new homes it can build. Without continued growth, China is likely to run into debt default problems. China is such a large country that its problems can be expected to adversely affect the world economy as a whole.
Figure 10 shows that China produces nearly half of the world’s total coal. If China’s coal production declines, world production is also likely to decline.
Figure 10. World coal production, divided into China and Non-China, based on 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data.
The only way to prop up coal production, for either China or the rest of the world, is higher prices, indirectly coming from higher demand from non-elite workers. Businesses can perhaps use rising debt to hire these non-elite workers but, if there is not a sufficient supply of buyers who can afford the additional goods and services made by these workers, the final outcome will be debt defaults.
The Fundamental Problem Is a Physics Problem
The fundamental problem is that the economy grows for the same reason that hurricanes, ecosystems, stars, and plants and animals grow. They are dissipative structures that grow in the presence of energy flows. In the case of hurricanes, the energy comes from the heat in the warm ocean. In the case of the economy, the energy flows are of many different types, including (among others), human energy, energy of draft animals, solar energy, fossil fuels, and wind energy.
One key characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are not permanent. Permanent growth in a finite system is not possible. The laws of physics sets up the system in such a way that dissipative structures grow and eventually collapse. Over time, new dissipative structures form, each varying in a random way from previous dissipative structures. Those best adapted to the ever-changing circumstances tend to last the longest. This is the way that the evolution of economies takes place, just as the evolution of plants and animals takes place.
One characteristic of economies is that physics determines how much energy is needed to manufacture and transport a particular product. It also determines how much the mix of buyers can afford to pay for finished products using this energy. Thus, physics determines the potential profitability of a particular manufacturing process, with lower energy costs tending to make production more profitable. As energy costs rise because of diminishing returns, the system eventually reaches a point where it must collapse. The cost of production rises so high, relative to wages, that many non-elite workers cannot afford the finished goods and services made by the system.
The laws of physics also determine what wage distributions must look like, given the availability of energy and other resources. In general, if there are not enough resources to go around, some members of the economy tend to get “frozen out” by low wages. In addition, in a low-energy per capita situation, the energy that is available tends to rise to the top, to the high-earners of the economy, somewhat like heating water transforms it to its gas phase (steam), which rises to the top. With this structure, even with a severe energy shortfall, some members of the economy can be survivors.
With today’s worldwide economy, the survivors might be some humans and businesses within the world economy. The system would need to start over, building up smaller economies from pieces that managed to stay intact, but the system, as a whole, would not die out, unless the energy shortfall were to be severe.
Modeling the World Economy
One issue with academic research today is that it tends to be divided into many academic “silos.” Researchers tend to know more and more about their own field, but less and less about other fields that might be peripherally related. For example, economists tend not to keep up with the physics of self-organizing networked systems. Geophysicists understand the physics that governs the extraction of fuels, but they have no insight into the fact that the laws of physics might also affect prices and wage distributions.
Without understanding the forces that are causing the results that are being observed, it is very easy to create a model that is more misleading than helpful. For example, a simple model of the earth is the one each of us can see as we look around us.
Figure 11. Source: Edrawsoft.com
The model shown in Figure 11 is a flat map. This is a perfectly good representation of what the earth looks like, if a person is not concerned about what happens at a distance. Of course, to extend the map out, a person really needs to convert the model into a globe. A globe is a very different model.
Economic researchers tend to have some of the same modeling issues as illustrated by the flat map model. Economists favor fitting curves to past data to forecast the future patterns. Curve fitting tends not to be good for determining turning points. When dealing with energy and other resources, we are really interested in when a turning point will happen, forcing production of energy products and resources of many kinds downward.
Another model favored by economists is the standard two-dimensional supply and demand model (Figure 12). This model ignores the special role that energy products play because of the operation of the laws of physics. Energy products, as they work through the networked economy, affect both the supply and demand of finished goods and services, making the two dimensional model shown inappropriate.
Figure 12. This standard model does not consider the special role energy plays in the economy under the laws of physics, so is not appropriate for energy products.
With neither curve fitting nor the standard supply and demand model sounding an alarm with respect to energy prices not being able to rise forever, economists have tended to overlook this issue.
Figure 13. Economic models tend to give a false sense of security because they forecast that the future will be a continuation of the past.
Of course, policymakers are happy to hear happily-ever-after endings. Few policymakers question the reasonableness of the models. They do not consider the possibility that the falling discretionary income of non-elite workers around the world might choke off demand for goods made with energy products.
Even geophysicists who have looked at the problem tend to get the story only half right. They understand underground physics, but they tend not to understand that prices cannot rise indefinitely. This is a different, related issue, also associated with the physics of the situation.
“Climate Change Is Our Biggest Problem” Is a Corollary to Bad Modeling
If a person truly believes that energy prices can and will rise forever, then it is an easy corollary to assume that all fossil fuels that we can identify within the earth’s crust will eventually become extractable. There are no limits except for the limits imposed by climate change.
Of course, if we are really hitting price limits here and now, the situation is likely to be very different. These price limits will cause a very near-term decline in energy supply, which we essentially have no control over. Financial systems are likely to collapse; international trade will be scaled way back; world population is likely to fall. CO2 levels will, in time, adjust to this radically changed world.
I showed earlier (in How the Peak Oil story could be “close,” but not quite right) that the models used to “prove” that wind and solar can be helpful to the system greatly overstate their benefit to the system. As a result, we don’t really have evidence that wind and solar are even helpful to the system.
Consequently, we really have two false models working together to give an illusion that we have a huge problem which is fixable, if we just exert enough effort. Physics puts a cap on our efforts, however. The physics of the system makes the system collapse before policymakers can hope to even make a small fix.
Figure 14. Two false models work together to give the illusion that climate change is the greatest problem that humans have and that we can fix the problem with fixes to the fuel system.
The unfortunate problem is that policymakers are not really in charge: the laws of physics are in charge. Energy and other resources are no longer inexpensive enough to extract to allow the system to work. The proposed solutions (wind and solar) are not cheap enough to save the system either. We can temporarily hide the problem with more debt (indirect promises of future energy) at lower interest rates, but this does not fix the system.
Conclusion
Many of the problems the world economy is facing today seem to be the result of reaching the limits of energy extraction. Very few researchers understand how a self-organized networked economy really operates. As a result, the symptoms of economic health and economic illness have been confused. It looks quite possible that we have reached both Peak Oil and Peak Coal, approximately simultaneously. This is a frightening situation, because it could be an indication of collapse in the next few years. This would likely be much worse than the Depression of the 1930s.
Of course, even with these observations, we do not know precisely what lies ahead. Somehow, multicellular animals have lived on this earth for a very long time. Amazing coincidences have happened and may continue to happen, allowing economies to flourish. We humans do not have as much control over the current situation as we would like to think that we have. Fortunately, we cannot rule out the possibility of more amazing coincidences, perhaps even caused by a literal Higher Power behind the energy flows. Thus, the result may be different from what our models seem to suggest.
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- Will Trudeau Resign After Former AG's Explosive Testimony?
During a day where three concurrent Congressional hearings dominated the news cycle in the US, the testimony of Canada’s former Attorney General seemed to slip under the radar. But unlike Michael Cohen’s star turn in front of the House Oversight Committee, what former AG Jody Wilson-Raybould shared with lawmakers and the Canadian public actually might cause one head of state’s carefully constructed house of cards to come crashing down – just as campaign season is ramping up.
With roughly eight months left until an election where Canadians will decide whether to stick with – or reject – the progressive agenda of PM Justin Trudeau, a widening corruption scandal is threatening to take down the prime minister’s entire government. Two weeks ago, journalists at the Globe and Mail blew the lid off a scandal involving Trudeau and his closest aides, where the prime minister appeared to pressure Wilson-Raybould, then the attorney general, into offering a DPA to a Quebec-based engineering firm – then fired her when she refused to obey his demands. And after weeks of radio silence, she shared her side of the story during a widely watched (in Canada) Congressional hearing Wednesday afternoon.
Wilson-Raybould
Answering questions posed by a conservative MP, Wilson-Raybould said she faced intense political pressure and veiled threats from at least 11 people involved in the government – either the PMO or the Privy Council Office – related to the SNC-Lavalin affair. She also said she was warned directly by Trudeau about the negative consequences should the company face prosecution, according to CBC. One close aide to Trudeau has already resigned over the scandal.
Wilson-Raybould listed the people she had warned about “the inappropriate nature of these conversations” after they “hounded” her about the affair, including Trudeau, Finance Minister Bill Morneau, Clerk of the Privy Council Michael Wernick and the (now-fired) senior senior aide to the prime minister, Gerald Butts.
“For a period of four months from September to December 2018, I experience a consistent and sustained effort by many people within the government to seek to politically interfere in the exercise of prosecutorial discretion in my role as the attorney general of Canada in an inappropriate effort to secure a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) with SNC-Lavalin.”
“Within these conversations there were express statements regarding the necessity of interfering in the SNC-Lavalin matter, the potential of consequences, and veiled threats if a DPA was not made available to SNC-Lavalin,” she said.
During a series of meetings, one of which took place on Sept. 17, Wilson-Raybould described how Trudeau and Privy Council clerk Michael Wernick tried to reason with her after she informed them that she had decided not to overturn a decision from the director of the Public Prosecution Service to proceed with criminal prosecution against SNC-Lavalin.
After hearing her answer, Trudeau warned of potential job losses should the company choose to move, and purportedly asked her to “help out.”
“At that point, the prime minister jumped in, stressing that there is an election in Quebec, and that, ‘I am an MP in Quebec, the MP for Papineau,'” she recounted. ‘I was quite taken aback.”
At that point, Wilson-Raybould said, she posed a direct question to Trudeau while looking him straight in the eye, asking if he was politically interfering with her role and her decision as the attorney general.
“I would strongly advise against it,” she told the committee she warned Trudeau, who responded, “No, no, no, we just need to find a solution.”
During another conversation, PMO senior staffer Mathieu Bouchard purportedly told Wilson-Raybould when discussing the case that “we need to get re-elected,” and proceeded to pressure her to change her ruling.
After repeatedly refusing to yield, she was moved in January from AG to the head of the department of Veterans’ Affairs – which was widely seen as a demotion. She resigned from the cabinet soon after. It wasn’t until weeks later that reports surfaced alleging that the seemingly arbitrary move may have been carried out in retribution for her refusal to cooperate on the SNC-Lavalin case.
And with that, calls for Trudeau to resign grow louder.
There can’t help but be demands that Trudeau resign, now. This is extraordinary. #CDNPOLI #LavScam
— Warren Kinsella (@kinsellawarren) February 27, 2019
- Monsanto's Roundup Weed Killer Found In Top Beer And Wind Brands
A new report by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) Education Fund reveals that many beers and wine sold across the US contain toxic glyphosate from weedkiller.
PIRG tested five wines, 14 beers and one hard cider for the study. The wine brands were Barefoot, Beringer, Frey (organic), Inkarri Estates (organic), and Sutter Home. The beers tested were from Budweiser, Coors, Corona, Guinness, Heineken, Miller, Peak (organic), Sam Adams, Samuel Smith (organic), Sierra Nevada, Stella Artois, Tsingtao and New Belgium. Ace Perry Hard Cider was also tested.
The study determined that popular beers like Coors, Budweiser, and Corona Extra contained an average of roughly 28 parts per billion (ppb). Tsingtao, the outlier, contained a whopping 49.7 ppb.
Glyphosate is one of the most widely used herbicides across the US and is the active ingredient in products such as Roundup, Rodeo Aquatic Herbicide, and Eraser. The toxic chemical is a broad-spectrum herbicide that kills plants but has also been linked to cancer in humans by the World Health Organization.
Sutter Home Merlot had the highest concentrations of glyphosate of all 20 brands, at 51 ppb. Beringer Estates Moscato and Barefoot Cabernet Sauvignon had slightly smaller levels of the chemical.
This mind-numbing revelation was published on the same day as a San Francisco court began hearing arguments in the first federal civil case over whether Monsanto’s Roundup weed killer causes cancer.
“When you’re having a beer or a glass of wine, the last thing you want to think about is that it includes a potentially dangerous pesticide,” said U.S. PIRG Education Fund’s Kara Cook-Schultz, who authored the study.
“No matter the efforts of brewers and vintners, we found that it is incredibly difficult to avoid the troubling reality that consumers will likely drink glyphosate at every happy hour and backyard barbeque around the country.”
The study also found that herbicides like Roundup are prohibited in the making of organic beers and wines, but somehow, glyphosate was discovered in three of the four organic alcoholic beverages tested.
While the results are below the EPA’s risk tolerances for alcoholic beverages, at least one study noticed that as little as one part per trillion of glyphosate can trigger the growth of breast cancer cells and disrupt the endocrine system.
The findings indicate that glyphosate contamination is widespread in over-the-counter beers and wine.
Americans should take the appropriate action by avoiding the alcoholic beverages mentioned in the study.
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