- Combatting Slavery In China
Combatting Slavery In China
Authored by Callista Gingrich via RealClear Wire,
A report published on February 14 revealed that the Chinese Communist Party is continuing to target and enslave Uyghurs through an expansion of forced labor in China. Published by The Jamestown Foundation and authored by Beijing-banned academic Adrian Zenz, the report concluded, “Xinjiang currently operates the world’s largest system of state-imposed forced labor.”
The atrocities that the Chinese Communist Party perpetrates against members of ethnic and religious minority groups in Xinjiang have come to light in recent years, including mass imprisonment of more than 1 million civilians, forced sterilization, separation of children from their families, torture, abuse, restrictions on religious freedom, and forced labor.
While most of China is composed of the Han ethnic group, more than half of the population of the northwestern region of Xinjiang consists of ethnic minorities (predominately Muslim Uyghurs) – who the Party has long sought to control.
In 2021, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo determined that the Chinese Communist Party was committing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang – a determination that Secretary of State Antony Blinken upheld.
Though the horrific methods the Party wields to subjugate these minority groups vary, the objective remains the same.
“It’s a strategy of control and assimilation,” Zenz told The New Yorker. “And it’s designed to eliminate Uyghur culture.”
Forced labor systems in Xinjiang – punishable by detention for non-compliance – are a key part of removing resistance and opposition to the CCP’s absolute authority and power. In his report, Zenz pointed to two dominant systems used to target Uyghurs and other ethnic groups in Xinjiang.
In one system, detainees in China’s infamous re-education camps received coercive skills training before receiving coercive work placement. Detainees who were viewed as less problematic received a sentence of forced labor, while others, such as prominent business and intellectual figures, were sentenced to lengthy prison terms.
Though it appears this system is no longer active, Zenz noted that the Chinese Communist Party is instead expanding its “Poverty Alleviation Through Labor Transfer” program. Zenz described this policy as “a non-internment state-imposed forced labor mobilization system.”
A Chinese academic research report, the Nankai Report, described the re-education camps as a “drastic short-term measure” and the labor transfers as a long-term “method to reform, meld and assimilate” Uyghurs.
But the bottom line is clear. “Xinjiang’s recent policy changes have rendered forced labor less visible and more challenging to conceptualize,” Zenz wrote. “Uyghur forced labor is becoming both more prevalent and more insidious.”
The United States must take notice of these findings that disguise coerced labor as voluntary.
In 2021, Congress passed into law the bipartisan Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. The law prohibits goods made by the Chinese Communist Party’s forced labor programs from entering the U.S. market. However, numerous products tied to slave labor continue to evade legal protections and arrive in American households.
Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP Rep. Mike Gallagher and Ranking Member Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi wrote a letter to Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas that outlined some of the key challenges to effectively enforcing this consequential law.
First, the members wrote, “Companies transfer forced laborers from [Xinjiang] to other regions in the People’s Republic of China, complicating [U.S. Department of Homeland Security] enforcement of the presumptive ban on forced labor products from [Xinjiang].” Additionally, “A second factor undermining enforcement of the [law] is Beijing’s increased transshipment of forced labor products to the United States through third countries.”
Last week, to further augment and strengthen U.S. efforts in the fight against human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the bipartisan and bicameral Uyghur Policy Act. This legislation, led by Rep. Young Kim, will authorize the State Department to appoint a Special Coordinator for Uyghur issues, direct the U.S. Agency for Global Media to distribute information on Uyghur genocide, and authorize support for Uyghur human rights activists.
As the Chinese Communist Party continues to target Uyghurs and members of other ethnic and religious minority groups in China, the United States must strengthen the enforcement of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and resolve to pass the Uyghur Policy Act into law.
For more commentary from Ambassador Callista L. Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 23:40 - Trump Scores 6th Straight Primary Win With Triumph Over Haley In Michigan
Trump Scores 6th Straight Primary Win With Triumph Over Haley In Michigan
By Nathan Worcester of Epoch Times
Former President Donald J. Trump has soundly defeated former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in Michigan’s Feb. 27 Republican presidential primary, notching his sixth-straight primary victory as he marches towards the GOP nomination.
The Associated Press called the race for Trump right after the last polls closed at 9 p.m. ET.
The result is another blow to Ms. Haley, coming days after a double-digit defeat in her home state of South Carolina. Despite this, she has vowed to stay on through Super Tuesday on March 5, when numerous delegate-heavy states will hold their primaries.
Ms. Haley campaigned in Michigan on Sunday and Monday and was in Colorado on Feb. 27, part of a multi-day tour ahead of Super Tuesday.
The former United Nations ambassador faces very challenging delegate math as Super Tuesday approaches, suggesting her time in the race is finite.
— Edward (@edwardrussl) February 28, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
While 16 Michigan delegates to the Republican National Convention were allocated based on the primary results, the majority—39—of the state’s 55 delegates will be awarded as a result of caucusing on March 2.
The main event will be in Grand Rapids, where former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) will oversee a convention at which party insiders will vote on how to divvy up the remaining delegates.
Yet, while Mr. Hoekstra has the backing of President Trump and the Republican National Committee (RNC), his accession to leader of the Michigan GOP has not been universally recognized by Republicans in the state.
Many in the party maintain that Kristina Karamo was improperly removed from her role as state GOP chairwoman. She’s staging her own convention in Detroit.
An ongoing lawsuit against Ms. Karamo could end the standoff before March 2. On election day itself, the judge in the case ruled that her ouster from the leadership role was legal.
Meanwhile, President Biden handily won the Democratic presidential primary in the state, garnering 78.6 percent of the vote.
But a campaign from Israel-Gaza ceasefire activists to get Democrats to select “uncommitted” from the ballot in that primary got some results. Sixteen percent of votes were for the “uncommitted” option, signaling dissension in Democratic ranks over the Middle Eastern conflict.
While Israel-Gaza is an electoral sore point for everywhere, it’s particularly sensitive in Michigan, which has large Arab Christian and Arab Muslim communities.
Former Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.), an Arab Christian and former Republican who has recently emerged as a critic of President Biden after supporting President Trump’s first impeachment while in office, recently mourned the death of his second cousin George as a result of an Israeli airstrike on the Church of Saint Porphyrius in Gaza.
Michiganders Back Trump
President Trump’s supporters in the state include Joe Bancroft, who was leaving a polling place at a library in Delta Charter Township when he spoke with The Epoch Times.
“He’s not a perfect person. Okay. And he is a strong person. And he’s rough around the edges. But here’s the thing. Who do you want to lead this country?” he said.
His wife, by contrast, voted for President Biden.
“Hell no,” she said when asked if she had voted for President Trump.
At an early voting site in Southgate, Michigan, downriver from Detroit, the Sikorskis—Douglas and his wife Sandy—formed a united front for President Trump.
“The RNC should be devoting all the funds to President Trump,” Mr. Sikorski told The Epoch Times on Feb. 25, the last day of early voting.
When asked if that priority could hinder important spending on other Republican races, the couple clarified that they felt the RNC could be trusted to use its resources more intelligently under new leadership—”Now that Ronna Romney [McDaniel]’s out,” Ms. Sikorski said.
Ms. Romney McDaniel announced her resignation as RNC chairwoman on Feb. 26, saying she would leave after Super Tuesday.
President Trump has endorsed Michael Whatley, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, as Ms. Romney McDaniel’s replacement. He hopes to replace RNC co-chair Drew McKissick, who is also resigning, with his daughter-in-law Lara Trump.
Continue reading at the Epoch Times
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 23:28 - Women CEOs Outnumber Johns
Women CEOs Outnumber Johns
In 2015, an article in the New York Times highlighted the distinct absence of women at the helm of major U.S. companies, using a methodology that was, to say the least, out of the ordinary: at the time, there were fewer women CEOs of major companies in the country than men with the first name John.
In fact, there were four times as many men with the first names John, Robert, William and James as there were women.
Good news? Not anymore.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to the U.S. financial group Bloomberg, which analyzed the CEOs of the S&P 500 companies, women outnumbered all male first names for the first time in 2017, but were tied with CEOs named James two years on. It was only last year, when ten new women joined the ranks of S&P 500 CEOs, that they widened the gap.
You will find more infographics at Statista
A small victory, then, for the place of women among top executives, but one that needs to be put into perspective, since there are still only 41 women in this position.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 23:20 - Majority Of Americans Now Back Trump-Style Border Wall: Poll
Majority Of Americans Now Back Trump-Style Border Wall: Poll
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Illegal immigration has become a key concern of voters this election year, with a new poll showing that, for the first time in the survey’s history, a majority of Americans support building a wall along the U.S.–Mexico border.
President Donald Trump inspects border wall prototypes in San Diego on Mar. 13, 2018. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images) With record numbers of illegal immigrants pouring into the country, public concern about the border crisis is higher during President Joe Biden’s term than under the prior two administrations, according to a Monmouth University poll released on Feb. 26.
More than six in 10 Americans think illegal immigration is a “very serious” problem, a sharp increase from 2015 and 2019, when prior Monmouth polls found that 43 percent and 49 percent, respectively, held that view.
When adding people who think illegal immigration is a somewhat serious problem (23 percent), the percentage of Americans who are concerned about the border crisis stands at 84 percent.
“Illegal immigration has taken center stage as a defining issue this presidential election year,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
It’s estimated that more than 10 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border since President Biden took office.
Support Soars for Border Wall
Concern about illegal immigration is so high, in fact, that for the first time since Monmouth began asking Americans for their views on the matter in 2015, a majority (58 percent) of the public supports building a border wall.
Before the current poll, the highest percentage of Americans who supported a border wall was 48 percent (in 2015); the lowest was 35 percent (in 2017).
Another notable finding is that a strong majority (61 percent) of Americans say that immigrants seeking asylum at the border should be made to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed.
The border wall was former President Donald Trump’s signature project, and Republicans have credited his “Remain in Mexico” policy—a centerpiece of border enforcement during his tenure but canceled by President Biden—with reducing the influx of illegal immigrants into the country.
Roughly 450 miles of the larger border wall were built when President Trump was in office, a project that President Biden criticized. An internal Department of Homeland Security memo found that physical barriers are the most cost-effective tool to deter illegal border-crossing activity.
President Biden has taken a dim view of his predecessor’s vision for a grand barrier, pledging while still a presidential candidate in 2020 that there wouldn’t be “another foot of wall constructed” in his administration.
On the day he took office, President Biden issued a proclamation that rescinded the national emergency declaration that President Trump had relied on to divert some $10 billion from Pentagon coffers to border wall construction.
The Biden administration later quietly auctioned off millions of dollars of border wall materials, for which it faced sharp criticism from Republicans.
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the reported death of Alexei Navalny from the Roosevelt Room of the White House, on Feb. 16, 2024. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) Although concern about illegal immigration has risen the most among Republicans (91 percent said it’s very serious), all voter groups have grown more worried about the border crisis, the Monmouth poll showed.
In a potential blow to President Biden’s chances at reelection, 58 percent of independents said illegal immigration is a very serious problem, up from a little more than 40 percent who said the same thing in 2015 and 2019.
State-Level Border Wall Efforts
Shortly after taking office, President Biden signed an executive order scrapping federal construction of the border wall.
In a proclamation on Jan. 20, 2021, he called the wall a “waste of money that diverts attention from genuine threats to our homeland security.”
Following President Biden’s decision to scrap the wall, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, announced he would seek funding for his state to build its own border barrier, which came as the influx of illegal immigrants into Texas swelled to near-record proportions.
In December 2021, Texas officially started building its own state-funded border wall. At the time, Mr. Abbott alleged that President Biden “refuses to enforce laws passed by Congress to secure the border and enforce immigration laws” and so “Texas is stepping up to do the federal government’s job.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (C) speaks at a press conference at the state capitol in Austin, Texas, on June 16, 2021. (Mei Zhong/The Epoch Times) Recently, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem ordered the state’s National Guard troops to help Texas with border wall construction.
“The border in a warzone, so we’re sending soldiers,” Ms. Noem, a Republican, said in a Feb. 20 statement.
South Dakota was the first state to deploy National Guard troops in response to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s call 2 1/2 years ago for help securing the border.
In October 2023, the Biden administration waived 26 federal laws in south Texas to allow for the construction of another 20 miles of border wall.
At the time, President Biden explained that the reason for resuming border wall construction was that the money had already been appropriated and attempts to redirect the funds to other projects failed.
“There’s nothing under the law other than they have to use the money for what it was appropriated for. I can’t stop that,” President Biden said at the time.
Asked by reporters whether he thought the border wall was effective, he replied, “No.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 23:00 - These Are The Median Down-Payments For A House In Each US State
These Are The Median Down-Payments For A House In Each US State
Since housing costs vary across U.S. states, so too does the income required to buy a house, and the down payment associated with the purchase.
But how much does the median value change per state?
Creator Julie Peasley, via Visual Capitalist, maps the median down payment on a single-family home by U.S. state, using data from Realtor.com, accessed through Bankrate, a publisher and rate comparison service focused on the banking industry.
Importantly, a “single-family home” is legally defined as a “structure used as a single-dwelling unit,” which includes:
- No common walls
- Built on its own parcel of land
- Private entrance/exit
- One set of utilities
- Single kitchen
This means actual house square footage will vary within and across the states, affecting the median prices and down payments in this data.
The Data: Median Down Payments by State
The top three priciest places for down payments are tied for number one: Washington D.C., Florida, and Hawaii, at a whopping $98,670.
Rank U.S. State Median Down Payment Average Down
Payment Percentage1 Florida $98,670 17.0% 2 Hawaii $98,670 17.0% 3 Washington, D.C. $98,670 20.9% 4 Washington $86,752 28.6% 5 California $84,244 18.4% 6 Massachusetts $79,206 18.9% 7 Colorado $75,304 18.5% 8 Montana $72,833 21.0% 9 New Jersey $71,547 18.0% 10 New Hampshire $71,500 20.0% 11 Idaho $64,985 20.2% 12 Oregon $55,015 17.3% 13 New York $50,843 17.0% 14 Vermont $48,534 17.5% 15 Connecticut $47,342 18.6% 16 Rhode Island $45,285 16.6% 17 Utah $43,488 16.4% 18 Delaware $40,412 17.0% 19 Minnesota $38,500 16.1% 20 South Dakota $37,630 16.8% 21 Georgia $35,572 15.9% 22 Arizona $34,072 15.4% 23 Nevada $33,306 15.0% 24 Wyoming $32,389 16.0% 25 North Carolina $31,867 14.5% 26 Virginia $29,704 13.5% 27 Nebraska $29,617 15.4% 28 Wisconsin $28,333 15.0% 29 Illinois $27,348 14.3% 30 Iowa $26,461 15.5% 31 Tennessee $25,969 14.6% 32 Maryland $25,723 11.9% 33 Pennsylvania $25,402 13.8% 34 North Dakota $24,543 15.0% 35 South Carolina $24,357 15.1% 36 Michigan $23,153 14.2% 37 Alaska $21,354 12.2% 38 Texas $18,780 12.2% 39 Kansas $18,325 13.1% 40 Missouri $17,832 12.9% 41 New Mexico $17,576 12.6% 42 Kentucky $17,548 13.4% 43 Maine $17,548 16.0% 44 Indiana $17,477 12.6% 45 Ohio $15,044 12.3% 46 Oklahoma $13,177 12.3% 47 Arkansas $11,996 11.8% 48 Alabama $8,788 10.7% 49 West Virginia $6,611 9.2% 50 Louisiana $6,470 9.2% 51 Mississippi $5,814 9.3% N/A National $31,500 15.0% Note: Current as of Q3, 2023.
Ranked 4th and 5th are Washington State and California, requiring median down payments in the mid-$80,000s.
Unsurprisingly the median down payment patterns follow how expensive housing is in that particular state, which in itself is a reflection of jobs, income, population, amenities, and the desirability of the location. By looking at the median, it also cuts out the “high end” that would skew the average (mean) payment higher.
At the bottom of the list, Alabama, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Mississippi all average less than $10,000 in median down payments.
However looking at the percentage of the total value put down as a down payment in those states (10%) indicates homebuyers there tend to have longer repayment plans. This is in contrast to the median down payment in Washington, which is close to one-third of the total house value.
Work From Home and U.S. Real Estate
The U.S. housing market has seen quite an upheaval in the last few years. Between December 2019 and November 2021, house prices rose nearly 24%, the fastest rate on record. Research found that areas that were more exposed to remote work experienced higher price growth.
Following the trend of skyrocketing house prices, the national average for down payments has also more than doubled from $13,250 in Q1 2020 to $31,500 in Q3, 2023, per earlier linked Bankrate data.
Rents have also climbed significantly, pricing many young adults out of moving out of their parents homes, which in turn has fueled luxury spending with more disposable income.
On the other hand, the commercial real estate market has struggled with falling demand and higher interest rates, putting downward pressure on prices in the sector.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 22:40 - Will New Gavin Newsom Recall Effort Backfire Again?
Will New Gavin Newsom Recall Effort Backfire Again?
Authored by Susan Crabtree viaRealClear Wire,
Conservative activists in California hope the seventh time is a charm when it comes to recalling Gavin Newsom. The governor, they say, is focused on serving as a top surrogate for President Biden and raising a national profile for his own presidential run while neglecting the state’s deep budget deficit, rising crime rate, persistent homelessness, and sky-high cost-of-living – factors driving an exodus of people and businesses to other states.
But their latest effort to oust Newsom after so many failed attempts isn’t stoking the same fears among Democrats as in the past, and even some Republicans are worried the partisan effort will blow up in their faces. It has the potential, some GOP operatives caution, to overshadow waning support for progressive policies in San Francisco and elsewhere while galvanizing Democrats and big donors behind the term-limited but politically ambitious governor.
Democrats argue that the latest recall effort is an obvious attempt to blunt presumed Newsom’s White House aspirations by showing that there’s a backlash against him resurfacing at home. But far from a big cloud hanging over his head, top California Democratic strategists are casting it as little more than an annoyance.
“I don’t think it even merits a cloud – maybe a little bit of fog or haze,” Steve Maviglio told RealClearPolitics Monday. Maviglio served as the press secretary for former California Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat who, in 2003, became the state’s second top executive to be recalled.
Republicans are so outnumbered by Democrats in California that one of their only political weapons is a recall petition. “They can either howl at the moon, or they can file a recall petition – those are their two choices,” said Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist who managed Davis’ successful campaigns in 1998 and 2002.
Some Republican political players across the state are also disheartened by the tired feel of the repeated long-shot effort. “I would much rather focus on the legislative and [federal and local] races where we could win, but they seem to want flashy politicking, not the hard work of retail politics,” one conservative activist told RCP.
The California Republican Party provided $125,000 for the 2021 recall effort but sidestepped questions on Monday about whether it would support it this year.
“We are eight days out from our March 5 primary and several weeks into pre-election voting,” California GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson said in a statement. “While Gavin Newsom has been an absolute disaster for our state – from accruing a record $73 billion budget deficit to hosting the nation’s largest homeless population to flatlining the quality of our schools and allowing criminals to thrive – the CAGOP’s attention is on turning out the vote in the primary election and supporting our endorsed candidates who can fix our broken state.”
Newsom wasted no time connecting the recall to Trump, confidently predicting it would go down in flames.
“Trump Republicans are launching another wasteful recall campaign to distract us from the existential fight for democracy and reproductive freedom,” he tweeted Monday. “We will defeat them.”
Newsom triumphed over a 2021 recall that made it on the ballot and was organized by the same conservative activists. The first-term governor overwhelmingly defeated the effort to oust him after a jittery summer in which polls predicted the race as a dead heat. After Newsom was fortified by nearly $75 million in unlimited campaign donations from his committees and allies, he sailed to victory over Republican talk-radio host Larry Elder.
The deep blue state’s Democratic voters showed up for Newsom in droves, with 61.9% voting to keep Newsom and only 38.1% voting to remove him. It was essentially the same margin he won by in his first campaign for governor against businessman John Cox in 2018. After the failed recall, Newsom’s support dipped only slightly. He came back in 2022 to win a second term by 59.2% to 40.8% against state Senator Brian Dahle.
Newsom beat back the 2021 recall so strongly it only strengthened his reelection and bolstered his political ambitions, South argued. President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris stumped with Newsom in the final days before the election. Former President Barack Obama cut a television ad, deeming the election a “matter of life and death” – the difference between “protecting kids from COVID or putting them at risk, helping Californians recover or taking them backward.”
Newsom hadn’t benefited from that level of Democratic star power since former President Bill Clinton flew in for a last-minute rally when polls showed his 2003 race for San Francisco mayor against a Green Party candidate much tighter than expected.
During his 2021 recall victory remarks, Newsom twice said he was “humbled” by the experience. But he also viewed the landslide as a validation of his strict COVID policies and efforts to lean into the country’s culture wars and hinted at his long-held White House ambitions.
“We are enjoying an overwhelming ‘no’ vote tonight here in the state of California,” Newsom told a crowd of cheering supporters gathered in Sacramento to view the recall returns. “But ‘no’ was not the only thing that was expressed tonight. I want to focus on what we said ‘yes’ to as a state. We said ‘yes’ to science, ‘yes’ to vaccines, we said ‘yes’ to ending the pandemic.”
“We said ‘yes’ to diversity, we said ‘yes’ to inclusion, we said ‘yes’ to pluralism,” he declared. “We said ‘yes’ to those things that we hold dear as Californians, and I would argue, as Americans.”
Recall organizers, led by Rescue California, acknowledge that Newsom was emboldened by beating the recall, but insist that it should have motivated him to focus his attention on fixing California’s problems instead of skewering red states and serving as a star surrogate for Biden. Half the state’s voters seem to agree.
Last fall, when Newsom was amplifying his national profile, his standing among California voters hit an all-time low, with 49% disapproving of his job as governor, a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll found. His approval rating in the late October poll fell to 44%, an 11-point slide from February when 55% of voters approved his performance.
“He’s using California taxpayer money to fly around the country and the world to support a national political agenda for president when he’s not even qualified, at this point, to run the state of California as the deficit numbers approach $100 billion,” Ann Dunsmore, Rescue California’s campaign director, told RCP.
Dunsmore also points out that Newsom will have little choice but to raise taxes to reduce the deficit because the state Constitution prohibits the government from declaring bankruptcy without voter approval. Right now, Newsom is backing a proposition calling for $6 billion in new spending to curb homelessness after the state has spent more than $20 billion on the issue during his time in office while the problem grew worse.
In early January, Newsom and Democrats who run the state legislature also ushered in new health insurance payments for all illegal immigrants. Newsom this week continued taking the fight to conservative states, unveiling a six-figure ad campaign and online petition effort in several Republican-controlled states that he said are trying to ban out-of-state travel for abortions and related medications. Newsom paid for the ads with a national political action committee he launched last year with $10 million from leftover state campaign funds.
Crime and cost of living are driving more and more businesses from the state, Dunsmore said, “and now Newsom’s coming out with an abortion ad?”
“Right now, people are trying to make ends meet, and it’s getting worse, not better,” she said. “Our tax base is gone. Just how out of touch is he?”
Recall petitions can be launched easily in California, but they face formidable hurdles. This one would require signatures equal to 12% of the turnout in the last election – roughly 1.31 million verified signatures.
Dunsmore won’t say how much Rescue California, which successfully led the effort to recall Davis in 2003, plans to spend on the effort. The 2021 recall required 1.5 million signatures, which it exceeded by 126,000. It cost organizers roughly $8 million, a fraction of the $78 million Newsom amassed to fight it.
This year, however, Dunsmore says they don’t plan to use costly paid signature-gatherers posted outside shopping centers. Instead, she said her organization and its partners already have the infrastructure in place – supporters’ physical addresses and emails – from the last effort.
Garry South, however, cautions that the 2021 recall only went forward after an unprecedented four-month extension for signature-gathering. A judge appointed by GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger approved the rare extension to compensate for COVID lockdowns when signature-gathering was far more difficult.
“That’s never happened before in a recall election in California,” South said, adding that there’s “no way” recall organizers will amass the required signatures with an all-volunteer effort.
The 2003 recall effort against Gov. Gray Davis got a boost when wealthy GOP Rep. Darrell Issa poured $2 million of his own money into signature-gathering efforts because he was aiming to become governor. But Schwarzenegger, a blockbuster Hollywood actor, stepped into the race and won it, thwarting Issa’s political ambitions.
Even Davis’ low poll numbers didn’t stop him from winning election in 2002. On Election Day in 2002, South recalls that Davis’ approval rating was only 22%, and he still won with 47.4% of the vote to the GOP candidate Bill Simon’s 42.4%.
“Newsom beat the recall with nearly 62% of the vote and then was reelected to a second term with 59%,” South said. “Those are not the metrics of someone who is going to be recalled.”
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 22:20 - Yen Doesn't Buy The BOJ Narrative Just Yet, But It Will
Yen Doesn’t Buy The BOJ Narrative Just Yet, But It Will
By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist
There seems to be growing conviction that Japan will exit negative rates in possibly just a couple of months, though the currency markets are underpricing that prospect.
Earlier Tuesday, data for January inflation showed not only faster-than-forecast headline numbers but also a core-core reading above 3% for a 13th straight month. The prints may convince the Bank of Japan that the sustainable inflation that it has long sought is here. Little wonder that overnight indexed swaps, which were assigning some 60% chance of a 10-basis point move from the BOJ in April, now reckon the probability is more like 80%.
The yen, though, hasn’t come to the party at all. Since the start of the year, the currency has slumped more than 6% against the dollar. That decline isn’t what is indicated by fundamentals, with the yen’s weakness looking completely out of sync with what ought to have happened.
A major part of what has happened with the yen is actually a dollar story. Fed fund futures, which were pricing a little more than three interest-rate cuts from the US central bank by June, are now wondering if policymakers will even deliver a single reduction by then. That has pushed up nominal and inflation-adjusted rates, sending the dollar far higher than reckoned.
There is also seasonality at play. The yen has weakened in four of the past five first quarters, except when the pandemic first struck the markets in 2020 and spurred investors to scramble for havens.
The Japanese currency is exceptionally undervalued at current levels, with its real-effective exchange rate near the cheapest it has ever been in history. Once the BOJ exits negative rates, expectations are that it will raise rates further and buoy the yen, although Japan won’t see any tightening anywhere on the scale that we have seen in in the other major economies as colleague Mark Cranfield notes.
The tide will turn decisively in favor of the yen whenever it becomes abundantly clear that inflation in the US is slowing to a crawl — allowing the Fed to cut rates as outlined in its December dot plot.Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 22:00 - The General Election Begins: Gingrich
The General Election Begins: Gingrich
Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClear Wire,
The New York Times called President Donald Trump’s victory in South Carolina on Saturday a “crushing home state loss” for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
For once, the New York Times was right. A 59.8 percent to 39.5 percent popular vote victory (and a 47 to three delegate count) is crushing.
In the first five primary contests, President Trump has won 110 delegates and Haley has won 20. Importantly, these were her best states. If she can’t beat Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, she can’t beat him anywhere.
The Koch fundraising system apparently reached the same conclusion and announced Sunday it was no longer going to fund the Haley campaign.
The best thing Haley could do is gracefully drop out and endorse Trump as preferable to Biden. The longer she stays in the race, the more she will alienate most Republicans.
Any notion that she is staying in so the party could turn to her if something happened to President Trump is delusional. In Nevada, Haley lost by 63.2 percent to 30.7 percent to “None of these candidates” (a term Nevada permits). If anything happened to President Trump, there is no possibility the delegates would turn to Haley. They would back virtually anyone against the anti-Trump candidate.
Every day she stays in the race makes Trump’s supporters more hostile toward her. Haley is also an impossible choice for the No Labels ticket because she has alienated so many Republicans.
So, the time has come to focus on the general election.
Gallup’s recent polls set the stage for a Joe Biden defeat comparable to the repudiation of President Jimmy Carter in 1980 (when Ronald Reagan won the largest electoral majority against an incumbent president in American history).
Consider the hole the Biden presidency is in according to Gallup.
Only 38 percent approve of the job President Biden is doing, and 59 percent disapprove. Only 40 percent approve of his effort to help Ukraine, while 53 percent disapprove. The Biden administration’s economic program (so-called Bidenomics) is at 36 percent approval. Sixty-one percent disapprove of it. On foreign affairs in general, Biden is at 33 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval. On his handling of the Middle East – and especially the Israeli-Palestinian war – 30 percent approve to 62 percent disapprove. Finally, on immigration, only 28 percent approve of his performance and 67 percent disapprove (and this was before Venezuelan illegal immigrant Jose Antonio Ibarra was charged with killing nursing student Laken Riley at the University of Georgia).
When your basic support on performance runs from 28 percent to 40 percent – and your disapproval runs from 53 percent to 67 percent – you are a candidate in deep trouble. It is going to take a lot more than good advertising for Biden to get re-elected.
The collapse in support for President Biden’s policies is reflected in other national polling data. According to the Real Clear Politics average, President Trump leads 46.7 percent to 44.8 percent. If there are five candidates splitting the vote, President Trump leads with 41.5 percent while President Biden drops to 36.8 percent.
Key swing states reflect the same advantage for President Trump.
- Michigan is Trump 46.7 percent to Biden 42.1 percent (Trump up by 4.6 percent).
- Georgia is Trump 48.5 percent to Biden 41.7 percent (a 6.8 Trump advantage leaving no margin for manipulation by Fani Willis’ friends).
- Nevada is Trump 48.7 percent to Biden 40.3 percent (Trump by 8.4 percent).
- Arizona is Trump 47 percent to Biden 42.3 percent (Trump by 4.7).
Every indicator points to the opportunity for President Trump to win by a margin big enough to help elect a Republican Senate and expand the Republican majority in the House.
Of course, if Biden collapses (as President Carter or Sen. George McGovern did) 2024 could turn into a rout of historic proportions.
The next stage will be for President Trump to campaign in all 50 states – and in every major city. There is a real opportunity to offer a vision of a dramatically better future for all Americans.
Just as candidate Reagan had a handful of themes in 1980, President Trump can focus on safety, prosperity, affordability, and American patriotism to build a huge majority.
Americans want to be safe at home and abroad. Biden is failing on both fronts.
Americans want an economy that is prosperous and affordable. Biden is failing on both fronts.
Most Americans want a restored and reinvigorated American patriotism. Biden’s attitudes and policies reflect opposite values.
The left knows it is in deep trouble and may not be able to defeat President Trump. That is why the liberal elites are destroying the rule of law and replacing it with a level of judicial corruption unlike anything we have ever seen in America.
However, the effort to destroy Trump through judicial warfare is becoming grotesque, unreasonable, and indefensible. It may end up helping Trump and hurting Biden.
If every citizen votes, this will be an historic moment in America – and could renew our civilization for a generation. If not, America could have a hard road ahead.
For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 21:40 - We're Gonna Need Another Pandemic!!
We’re Gonna Need Another Pandemic!!
Zoom Video Communications, the company that rose to fame during the early days of the pandemic, ended fiscal 2024 on a strong note, reporting results for its fourth fiscal quarter ended January 31 that beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom line. Adjusted earnings per share were up 16 percent year-over-year while total revenue and enterprise revenue increased 3 and 5 percent, respectively. That’s still a far cry from the growth figures Zoom posted during the pandemic, when the company saw its revenue grow manifold in a matter of months. The end of working-from-home requirements and subsequent return to offices as well as stiff competition from Microsoft Teams, Cisco’s Webex and Salesforce’s Slack have brought the former pandemic high-flyer back to earth.
However, as Statista’s Felx Richter details below, Zoom isn’t the only pandemic winner struggling to maintain its momentum in the post-pandemic world. Other companies that soared under the special circumstances created by Covid-19 have also come crashing down over the past two years, as normal life gradually returned. Home fitness company Peloton and DIY marketplace Etsy, which profited from a large volume of mask sales on its platform during the pandemic, are two such examples, along with vaccine maker Moderna and DocuSign, a company that allows companies to manage agreements electronically.
You will find more infographics at Statista
As the chart above shows, all of these companies saw their stock price surge during the Covid crisis, but all of them have fallen more than 75 percent from their peak pandemic valuation.
$1,000 invested in Moderna shares on March 11, 2020, the day the WHO declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic, would have appreciated to more than $20,000 by August 2021 and would still be worth almost $4,000 today.
Investors who bought shares of DocuSign, Zoom or Peloton at the onset of the pandemic and held on to them until now are suffering from a severe pandemic hangover, though, as the shares of these companies are now worth (significantly) less than they were in March 2020.
“We’re gonna need bigger pandemic!!”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 21:20 - OPEC+ Could Extend Oil Output Cuts Through Year End
OPEC+ Could Extend Oil Output Cuts Through Year End
By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts that were set to expire at the end of the first quarter could be extended through the end of the year, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
Crude oil prices jumped with the news from three anonymous OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters, indicating that OPEC+ was considering an extension of its voluntary production cuts into the second quarter to lend further support to the market. What’s more, the sources suggested that the group could keep the voluntary cuts in place through the end of this year.
In fact, one of the OPEC+ sources said that the cut extension into the second quarter was “likely”.
Neither OPEC nor Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry responded to Reuters’ request for comments.
Oil prices were trading up more than 1% on the news in afternoon trading. But the oil industry was largely already betting on OPEC+ extending its oil production cuts beyond the first quarter and into the next, a Bloomberg survey showed last Friday. The anonymous survey predicted. According to industry watchers, OPEC+ would be forced to keep the oil off the market, with supply continuing to exceed demand. “OPEC+ have no choice but to extend the current cuts in order to avoid a meltdown,” Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd, said last week.
OPEC+ members collectively decided to voluntarily cut 2.2 million bpd from the group’s production this quarter, although much of that was production cuts that were already in effect, including Saudi Arabia’s 1 million bpd voluntary cut. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has always left the door open to extending the cuts, saying as far back as December that the production cuts could extend beyond March should the market require it.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 21:18 - Argentina Oil Provinces Rebel Against Milei's Austerity Plan
Argentina Oil Provinces Rebel Against Milei’s Austerity Plan
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Argentina’s oil-producing provinces have threatened to cut off oil supply to the rest of the country if the government of Javier Milei goes through with plans to withhold billions in federal tax revenues.
“Not a drop of oil will come out on Wednesday if they don’t respect the provinces once and for all and take their foot off our back,” the governor of the southern Chubut province, Ignacio Torres, told a local TV channel, as quoted by AFP.
The central government wants to withhold the equivalent of some $15.3 million from Chubut as a way of collecting on unpaid debt from that and 10 other provinces, as explained by Economy Minister Luis Caputo.
In response to the threat, the Argentinian president took to X to slam the governor of Chubut and his peers for being “fiscal degenerates”. The spat prompted a local analyst to issue a warning that the president might have bitten off a larger piece than he could chew.
“There is a rebellion in the provinces, and a mistaken assessment by Milei about the level of conflict,” Artemio Lopez told AFP. He went on to explain that it was one thing for the president to lock horns with an unpopular parliament but provincial governors were a different sort of opponent.
“Most of them got a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the last election,” the analyst said.
Patagonia, in the southern part of Argentina, is the home of most of the country’s oil production, present and future. The Vaca Muerta shale play—the second largest in the world—is in the northern part of that region but state-owned YPF recently announced a shale oil and gas discovery in Chubut, which is about 1,000 miles south of the Vaca Muerta formation.
At the moment, the Vaca Muerta accounts for about two-thirds of Argentina’s oil production. Investments in the play last year were expected to top $10.7 billion, which was an 18% increase from 2022.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 21:00 - Mapping All Of 2024's Global Elections
Mapping All Of 2024’s Global Elections
With almost half of the world’s population residing in countries holding executive or legislative elections in 2024, it’s set to be the busiest election year ever recorded.
This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, uses collated 2024 global elections data from our 2024 Global Forecast Series as well as from Time, while country populations are taken from Worldometer as of January 2024.
Countries Holding 2024 Elections Around the World
Many people are already aware of the U.S. presidential and legislative elections set to be held on November 5th, especially due to American influence on the global political stage and media coverage.
But two governments affecting larger populations, India and the European Union, are also slated to have elections in 2024.
Below, we sort the countries expected to hold elections in 2024 by population (countries with no set election date yet have been marked “N/A”):
Country Election Date Type Population 🇮🇳 India N/A Legislative 1,428,627,663 🇪🇺 European Union 6/6/2024 Legislative 448,387,872 🇺🇸 United States 11/5/2024 Executive & Legislative 339,996,563 🇮🇩 Indonesia 2/14/2024 Executive & Legislative 277,534,122 🇵🇰 Pakistan 2/8/2024 Legislative 240,485,658 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 1/7/2024 Legislative 172,954,319 🇷🇺 Russia 3/15/2024 Executive 144,444,359 🇲🇽 Mexico 6/2/2024 Executive & Legislative 128,455,567 🇮🇷 Iran 3/1/2024 Legislative 89,172,767 🇬🇧 UK N/A Legislative 67,736,802 🇿🇦 South Africa 5/29/2024 Legislative 60,414,495 🇰🇷 South Korea 4/10/2024 Legislative 51,784,059 🇩🇿 Algeria N/A Executive 45,606,480 🇺🇦 Ukraine 3/31/2024 Executive 36,744,634 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan N/A Legislative 35,163,944 🇬🇭 Ghana 12/7/2024 Executive & Legislative 34,121,985 🇲🇿 Mozambique 10/9/2024 Executive & Legislative 33,897,354 🇲🇬 Madagascar N/A Legislative 30,325,732 🇻🇪 Venezuela N/A Executive 28,838,499 🇰🇵 North Korea N/A Legislative 26,160,821 🇹🇼 Taiwan 1/13/2024 Executive & Legislative 23,923,276 🇲🇱 Mali N/A Executive 23,293,698 🇸🇾 Syria N/A Legislative 23,227,014 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka N/A Executive & Legislative 21,893,579 🇷🇴 Romania N/A Executive & Legislative 19,892,812 🇹🇩 Chad N/A Executive 18,278,568 🇸🇳 Senegal 12/15/2024 Executive 17,763,163 🇰🇭 Cambodia 2/25/2024 Legislative 16,944,826 🇷🇼 Rwanda 7/15/2024 Executive & Legislative 14,094,683 🇹🇳 Tunisia N/A Executive 12,458,223 🇧🇪 Belgium 6/9/2024 Legislative 11,686,140 🇯🇴 Jordan N/A Legislative 11,337,052 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 5/19/2024 Executive & Legislative 11,332,972 🇸🇸 South Sudan N/A Executive & Legislative 11,088,796 🇨🇿 Czechia N/A Legislative 10,495,295 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 2/7/2024 Executive 10,412,651 🇵🇹 Portugal 3/10/2024 Legislative 10,247,605 🇧🇾 Belarus 2/25/2024 Legislative 9,498,238 🇹🇬 Togo 4/20/2024 Legislative 9,053,799 🇦🇹 Austria N/A Legislative 8,958,960 🇸🇻 El Salvador 2/4/2024 Executive & Legislative 6,364,943 🇸🇰 Slovakia 3/23/2024 Executive 5,795,199 🇫🇮 Finland 1/28/2024 Executive 5,545,475 🇲🇷 Mauritania 6/22/2024 Executive 4,862,989 🇵🇦 Panama 5/5/2024 Executive & Legislative 4,468,087 🇭🇷 Croatia 9/22/2024 Executive & Legislative 4,008,617 🇬🇪 Georgia 10/26/2024 Executive & Legislative 3,728,282 🇲🇳 Mongolia 6/28/2024 Legislative 3,447,157 🇲🇩 Moldova N/A Executive 3,435,931 🇺🇾 Uruguay 10/27/2024 Executive & Legislative 3,423,108 🇱🇹 Lithuania 5/12/2024 Executive & Legislative 2,718,352 🇧🇼 Botswana N/A Legislative 2,675,352 🇳🇦 Namibia N/A Executive & Legislative 2,604,172 🇬🇼 Guinea Bissau N/A Executive 2,150,842 🇲🇰 North Macedonia 5/8/2024 Executive & Legislative 2,085,679 🇲🇺 Mauritius 11/30/2024 Legislative 1300557 🇰🇲 Comoros 1/14/2024 Executive 852,075 🇧🇹 Bhutan 1/9/2024 Legislative 787,424 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands 4/17/2024 Legislative 740,424 🇲🇻 Maldives 3/17/2024 Legislative 521,021 🇮🇸 Iceland 6/1/2024 Executive 375,318 🇰🇮 Kiribati N/A Executive & Legislative 133,515 🇸🇲 San Marino N/A Legislative 33,642 🇵🇼 Palau 11/12/2024 Executive & Legislative 18,058 🇹🇻 Tuvalu 1/26/2024 Legislative 11,396 A few notable elections have already occurred. Taiwan held general elections on January 13th, with the more anti-China Democratic Progressive Party retaining the presidency but losing its majority in the legislature.
Pakistan also held elections on February 8th, with former Prime Minster Imran Khan’s party and affiliates winning a plurality of seats but losing power to a military-backed coalition.
Pakistan’s election results were cast into doubt by foreign observers and media, with Khan having been arrested and sentenced to prison on corruption charges. It is far from the only country holding controversial and potentially undemocratic elections in 2024.
Bangladesh’s landslide January 7th elections were boycotted by the opposition and voters, and Russia’s March 15th elections had three anti-war presidential candidates barred from competing, including Alexei Navalny before his controversial death in February.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 20:40 - Yes, There Is A Path For A Third Party Candidate To Win The White House… But It Is Narrow
Yes, There Is A Path For A Third Party Candidate To Win The White House… But It Is Narrow
One of the most interesting dynamics in this election is the impact of third party candidates from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to Cornel West to a yet-to-be-named candidate with the No Labels ticket.
Both Democratic and Republican operatives have been actively dismissing the ability of any third party candidate to win, including claims that the No Labels group has waited too long to get on ballots. I do not believe that is true.
There is a path for a third party alternative to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
However, that path is rather narrow and rocky.
Sources with No Labels have pushed back on the media narratives by noting that Ross Perot did not enter the race until February of 1992. The group insists that it can make the ballot in all 50 states, but would likely seek a ballot spot in 32 states. The group noted that signature requirements are lower for candidates if they seek to run as individuals as opposed to seeking the addition of a party.
That is correct, though the signature requirements can still be daunting. Yet, No Labels did meet the requirement in Maryland recently for party recognition. What is clear is that the path is narrowing with the passage of time. No Labels currently has no candidate.
The requirements for states vary significantly. In California, they will need 219,000 signatures while, in Maine, they only need roughly 5,000 signatures. Joining an existing party like the Libertarian Party or Green Party allows a candidate to use an existing platform and infrastructure. Kennedy is rumored to be considering a run with the libertarians.
Even with third party candidates on the ballot, it is notoriously difficult for such a candidate to break through our duopoly of power given the hold of the two main parties on the process.
However, it is also important to note that an outright electoral victory is not necessarily the only option for these candidates. Polls show that sixty-seven percent of voters want someone other than Biden or Trump.
Yet, in the primaries, neither Democrats nor Republicans are opting to make a change. Both Biden and Trump appear to be on an easy glide path to their respective nominations.
Much can change this year from convictions of Trump to a withdrawal by Biden. There could be a seismic event that leaves a “dark horse” candidate as the front runner.
The more intriguing path would be through the Congress. With the country bitterly divided between these candidates, there is a chance that neither candidate might receive the needed 270 electoral votes in the Electoral College. If there is a “contingent election,” the Twelfth Amendment kicks in with the House of Representatives selecting a president and the Senate selecting a vice president. In the House, the members vote as state delegations.
The divided Congress could make all of this . . . well . . . challenging. It is also not clear how the political dynamics will look for these politicians. In the mix, a third party candidate could emerge as a compromise candidate if the division leaves neither Biden or Trump with enough support.
We have only used the Twelfth Amendment a couple of times. However elections like 1825 and 1837 show that such conflicts can present unexpected alliances.
For example, Andrew Jackson secured a plurality of both popular and electoral votes. However, he needed 131 electoral votes out of the 261 votes of the college. He only had 99 votes after the election. John Quincy Adams had 84. The third candidate, William Crawford had 41. While Henry Clay had 37 votes, the first three went to the first round balloting. Clay eventually threw his support behind Adams who later made him Secretary of State.
If a third party candidate were to secure electoral votes, he or she could make that first balloting. If the Congress were to deadlock, a third party compromise candidate could become more attractive given the rejection of the majority for the two leading candidates.
Is that likely? No. However, to quote Maya Angelou, “ain’t nothing to it, but to do it.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 20:20 - Playing With Fire: Zelensky Questions Trump's Patriotism In CNN Interview
Playing With Fire: Zelensky Questions Trump’s Patriotism In CNN Interview
Ukraine’s President Zelensky has grown increasingly bold in his criticisms of former US President Donald Trump – a risky move given he’s clearly the Republican frontrunner for president going into November. Kiev may soon have to deal with a Trump White House and ‘play nicer’ in the near future as it tries to survive the Russian onslaught. “If Trump doesn’t know who he will support, Ukraine or Russia, he will have problems with his society. Supporting Russia means being against the Americans,” Zelensky boldly said in a new interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.
Throughout the remarks the Ukrainian leader cast Trump as ‘weak’ on Russia, explaining that Trump doesn’t understand that Putin will “will never stop.” The implication is that Putin is waging an expansionist war threatening the rest of Europe and that a potential future Trump presidency might just sit on the sidelines.
Getty Images “I think Donald Trump doesn’t know Putin,” Zelensky said in the Sunday interview, which is now widely circulating. “I know he met him … but he never fought with Putin. [The] American Army never fought with the army of Russia. Never … I have a better understanding.”
“I don’t think he understands that Putin will never stop,” Zelensky asserted while referencing Trump directly, which comes after fierce criticisms by Trump on the campaign trail which have highlighted the failure of NATO countries in Europe to spend enough on defense.
Zelensky’s words also tap into the longtime Democratic ‘Russiagate’ narrative that Trump has somehow been influenced by Putin. Zelensky was again asked about the former US president’s recent biting criticism of NATO wherein the Republican frontrunner said that he’d be OK with Russia doing “whatever the hell they wanted” if NATO countries refuse to meet defense spending targets.
That’s when Zelensky issued his sharpest criticism of Trump to date, explaining that it’s unclear whether Trump stands with Americans or with Moscow. The words ultimately questioned Trump’s patriotism and loyalty to America. Again, this is what Zelensky said… and it seems to call into question Trump’s ‘loyalties’:
“If Trump doesn’t know who he will support, Ukraine or Russia, he will have problems with his society. Supporting Russia means being against the Americans.”
As for Putin, he recently was asked in an interview who he would like to see become president of the United States. He shocked the West by answering “Biden” as he is more “predictable”. Putin called the Democrat incumbent a “more experienced, predictable, an old-school politician.”
Zelensky in the fresh CNN interview was asked about his preference. This is how he responded:
Zelensky would not answer whether he wanted to see Trump reelected to the country’s highest office, telling Collins that “the decision who will be the president is a decision of your society.”
Zelensky says he has a better understanding of who Putin actually is than Trump does. “That’s why I think Donald Trump doesn’t know Putin. I know he met with him…But he never fought with him. The American army never fought with the army of Russia.” pic.twitter.com/GSjCT0Tqny
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) February 27, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
At a moment Biden’s proposed $60+ billion in Ukraine defense aid is still being held up by the Republican House, Zelensky’s increased attacks are only likely to harden GOP resistance to sending tens of billions more in taxpayer dollars to Kiev.
In some ways, his criticisms also give Trump license to heap criticisms back on Zelensky. There’s a likelihood we are about to see Trump say some things not favorable to Zelensky on the campaign trail. At the same time, Democrats will continue running with their Trump as ‘friend of Putin’ narrative, even though Trump himself in prior years did much to arm and militarize Ukraine in the lead-up to the Russian invasion.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 20:00 - The Lasting Damage Of Bidenomics
The Lasting Damage Of Bidenomics
Authored by K.S. Bruce via American Greatness,
Recently, Democratic Party-cheerleading economist Paul Krugman declared, “Inflation is over. We won.” This is like a robber shooting you and then declaring, “The coma I put you in is over! We won!”
The truth is that the wild inflation, high interest rates, bank failures, and other economic harms of the last three years were all entirely avoidable and all entirely caused by President Biden and the Democrats’ arrogant and unwise policies.
This is not “Monday morning quarterbacking.” Some of us were saying this well before the fact. My May 7, 2021 column (“Joe Biden, Economy Killer”) accurately forecast the inflation, rising interest rates, and rising government debt service long before the Biden administration even acknowledged the risks were real.
The U.S. economy did not need another giant stimulus plan when Biden and the Democrats took control in 2021. The U.S. gross domestic product, knocked down by the COVID shutdown in the first half of 2020, had jumped up by a record 33% in the third quarter of 2020 and by another 4% in the fourth quarter, all before Biden took office. The S&P stock market had risen 16.3% in 2020. Employers were waiting for workers to come back to work, and another stimulus package had been passed with bipartisan support in the last quarter of 2020. Happily, the inflation rate was only 1.4% as 2020 ended, with a one-year Treasury rate of just 0.10% and a 10-year Treasury rate of just 0.95%
The outlook for 2021 was also favorable. As the Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 28, 2021, “The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow 5.1% this year, while economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal projected 4.3% growth … U.S. employers are poised to add more than five million jobs this year, according to economists surveyed by the Journal. That would make 2021 the best year for employment gains in records dating back to 1939.”
As Biden entered the White House in January 2021, a wiser new president would have allowed this recovery to continue without meddling. But what political fun is that? How can you be the “new FDR” unless you present matters as worse than they are, so that you can create giant new programs and be the savior? How can you transfer trillions of taxpayer money to build a Democratic Party political base?
Instead, Biden took office and quickly proceeded to do everything exactly wrong. He used the Reconciliation Act to jam through a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill (the “American Rescue Act”) without one Republican vote. This was an economic mistake, a knife in the heart of the regular political order, and made a lie of the bipartisan respect that he had campaigned upon.
When former Democratic Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned Biden that his rescue bill was inflationary and six times the amount needed, Biden’s biographer Franklin Foer reports that “Biden called Summers and unloaded on him. His younger aides, many of whom had worked for Summers in the Obama administration, pumped their fists when they learned about the president’s fiery rebuttal. Biden had put their old mentor in his place.”
Even as Biden overstimulated demand, he moved to restrain supply. He temporarily slowed up oil and gas production with a series of jawboning and regulatory attacks against the Keystone Pipeline, fracking, and traditional energy companies. He increased incentives for workers to stay home, thereby exacerbating labor shortages and supply-chain bottlenecks. He berated governors like Florida’s Ron DeSantis, who sought speedy re-openings of their states. He praised teacher union leaders as they kept schools closed. His fecklessness with the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan may well have emboldened Vladimir Putin to launch a ground invasion of Ukraine, leading to a host of other energy and supply chain shocks.
The foreseeable result of excessive demand stimulus, plus constrained supply, is inflation, which has been a terrible burden to the average American. In total, prices are up about 17% since Biden took office, and real wages are down about 2%. It takes the average American roughly $11,000 per year more just to maintain the same lifestyle now as pre-2021. Credit card debt has soared in the last two years to over $1 trillion as consumers struggle to keep up.
The Federal Reserve was slow to react to Biden’s errors. They then raised interest rates at a nosebleed pace in 2022 and 2023 to catch up, and to fight the Biden-fueled inflation that reached a height of 9.1% per month in the summer of 2022. The fact that the Fed had to raise rates once inflation began, however, was totally to be expected, and fully predicted in my May 2021 piece.
Rising interest rates mathematically translate into declining values for long-term, fixed-rate bonds, whose existing rates look relatively less attractive as other rates rise. As the Fed was forced to whip up rates to cure the Biden inflation, the U.S. long-term bond market suffered its worst annual losses since the Napoleonic Wars in 1803, a decline of 53% for 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds between March 2020 and October 2023.
The stock markets fell over 19% in 2022 as well. Workers’ pension plans were battered. Silicon Valley Bank (whose balance sheet was heavily invested in the now plummeting “risk-free” U.S. long-term government bonds) experienced a depositor run, which in turn triggered a bank panic that forced the government to intervene to save the bank sector. This Biden-induced panic has left banks weaker and more regulated, which is likely to result in years of reduced bank lending to Main Street borrowers. Bank loans are also increasingly hard to get for local real estate developers, who are themselves wounded by the impact of higher interest rates on their mortgages and on the relative value of their fixed rent incomes. More generally, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has recently estimated that every 100-basis point rise in real interest rates reduces total U.S. economic growth by 5% over the following 12 years.
The Biden administration now desperately seeks to avoid blame for U.S. inflation by pointing to the inflation in Europe, much like a fifth grader’s “everybody is doing it” defense. But the European Central Bank itself has made clear this defense is specious.
As the ECB Bulletin explained, U.S. inflation has been chiefly driven by excess demand and government over-stimulus, while Europe’s problems are chiefly due to supply shocks. Consumer demand in the U.S. had already recovered to pre-COVID levels by early 2021 when Biden (foolishly) applied an extreme amount of extra stimulus. In contrast, Europe had weaker demand but was hit hard by higher prices on Russian-supplied energy and natural gas, an increase which also increased electricity and food prices. The U.S. did not share in this inflationary supply shock because our country never depended upon Russian gas and was already energy self-sufficient before Biden took office. Additionally, inflation began in the U.S. several months earlier than in Europe, and this U.S. inflation, plus the rise in the U.S. dollar relative to the Euro, meant that the U.S. goods were themselves fueling higher prices for Europeans in their own currency.
Now, it is 2024. After years of Biden-induced economic hardship, the Federal Reserve rate rises are having their dampening effect, inflation is back down, and asset values can stop falling. The stock market is up in recent months, but even now, this rise is despite Biden, not because of him.
The best-performing sectors of the stock market are often those that Biden and the Dems have tried to cripple, and the worst performers are often those industries he tried to support. The fossil fuel stocks like Exxon were up over 50% in 2021 and 2022 as the stock market fell. The social media and tech companies that Biden browbeats are the largest part of the Magnificent Seven. Drug companies that charge very high prices, such as the makers of weight loss drug Ozempic, are way up. Meanwhile, Blackrock, which promoted ESG investing, is under siege, and the billions and billions of taxpayer money handed to the electric vehicle industry may prove to be largely wasted in the face of slowing consumer demand. Even green energy projects may have perversely suffered under Biden as, the Wall Street Journal reports, “Clean-energy stocks have fallen out of favor, with the pressure created by rising interest rates outweighing supportive government policies.”
Finally, even if current monthly economic numbers are acceptable, the cumulative harm and price increases that have already occurred under Biden are unlikely to reverse and so will live on like a giant weight around America’s collective neck. Even if Treasury interest rates drift back down by a percentage or two over coming quarters, they will still be at a level that is roughly 300 basis points higher than they were pre-Biden, or than they needed to be. These interest rates, now raised, appear likely to stay at this elevated level for years to come.
Biden’s economic legacy – the “Biden Burden” – will be that he made Americans poorer than they should have been, and needlessly moved America to a world of higher interest rates on a larger government deficit.
The Congressional Budget Office last week revised its government deficit estimates upward, expecting $48.3 trillion of government debt by 2034. Interest expense on the federal debt this year has already jumped up to $870 billion, which is larger than the defense budget. Additionally, Biden’s higher interest rates will continue to increase debt service costs as old government debt rolls off and is replaced at higher costs. The risk is stark: a 3% higher interest rate on even the existing $33 trillion level of federal debt equates to $1 trillion of extra federal interest expense each and every year, on top of the already giant existing debt service number.
There is no painless way to pay down this deficit or cover this extra annual government interest cost. The need for billions and billions of extra tax money or budget cuts will fuel fierce political fights, populist divisions, and national anger for years to come. All this public unrest will also be the legacy of the bad Democratic economic policies since 2021. Professor Krugman, when it comes to Bidenomics, “We lost.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 19:40 - US Army Plans To Cut 24,000 Jobs Due To "Over-Structured" Woes
US Army Plans To Cut 24,000 Jobs Due To “Over-Structured” Woes
The US Army faces the most challenging recruiting environment in decades, if not ever, as America’s Generation Z doesn’t want to fight foreign wars driven by neocon warmongering politicians in Washington, the military-industrial complex, NATO, and mega-corporations.
For several years, the Army has been coming to terms with a recruiting crisis of historic proportions. We have documented these unprecedented challenges as the war cycle, in financial cycle expert Charles Nenner’s view, continues to ‘break out’:
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US Army Struggling To Recruit White Soldiers And The Reason Is Obvious
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Fewer Americans Are Interested In Fighting Wars For The Regime
Given the soaring threat of World War III, the Army is about to undergo a major restructuring, according to a document obtained by Fox News.
The service calls for reducing its force by about 24,000, or about 5%. These cuts will only affect posts that have remained empty and not actual soldiers.
“The Army is not asking current soldiers to leave. As the Army builds back end strength over the next few years, most installations will likely see an increase in the number of soldiers actually stationed there,” the Army said.
The jobs on the cutting block are primarily counterinsurgency positions that ballooned during America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over two decades. These jobs are no longer in high demand as World War III risks accelerate in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Also, there is a conflict risk with China in the Pacific and around Taiwan.
Fox noted cavalry squadrons, Stryker brigade combat teams, infantry brigade combat teams, and security force assistance brigades, amounting to about 10,000 jobs, will also be axed.
The document described the service as “significantly over-structured” as a push for a much leaner and meaner force.
Here’s from from Fox:
The service is currently structured to have up to 494,000 soldiers, but the total number of active duty soldiers is about 445,000. The new plan has Army leaders looking to recruit enough troops through Fiscal Year 2029 to reach a goal of 470,000 active-duty soldiers.
Despite the cuts, the service plans to add another 7,500 troops for air defense and counter-drone units.
There’s also a shift from close combat and counterinsurgency structure to large-scale or multidomain combat operations due to World War III risks.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 19:20 - Microwave Energy Could Fix The Biggest Problem Facing EVs
Microwave Energy Could Fix The Biggest Problem Facing EVs
By Alex Kimani of Oilprice.com
Last month, large swathes of the United States grappled with sub-zero wind chills whereby freezing air from the Arctic set record-low temperatures leaving scores of people dead, created record-breaking energy demand and knocked out electricity to tens of thousands in the north-west. The frigid weather had another unintended consequence: it exposed just how vulnerable electric vehicles are to low temperatures with many EV drivers being left stranded after their vehicles prematurely run out of juice.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), an EV can lose as much as 12% of its range when temperatures drop to 20 degrees, and as much as 41% if you turn on the cabin heater. In other words, for every 100 miles of combined urban/highway driving at 20°F temperatures, the range of an EV drops to 59 miles. Range loss due to low temperatures varies according to the EV model, with a BMW 13s averaging 20.4% reduction in range at 21 F in combined HVAC on/off scenarios; Tesla Model S 75D loses 11.3% while a Volkswagen 3-golf sees a 6.9% deterioration. EV batteries work less efficiently in cold conditions while charging times can double or even triple for older EVs.
Luckily, a handy solution could be around the corner: Researchers from the University of Birmingham are working on an energy storage system that combines microwave energy and a chemical heat pump to produce heating or cooling on demand.
Dubbed e-Thermal bank, the system is designed as a secondary energy source for EVs that can harness electricity to drive a high-density (1600Wh/Kg) thermochemical-based system. The thermal bank is ‘charged’ at the EV charging station by using microwave energy to dissociate a solid-vapor working pair.
During discharging, the process is reversed by feeding the vapor into a reactor to generate heat, while the opposite phase uses an evaporator to generate cooling simultaneously. In effect, this charging process stores microwave energy inside the car, in the e-Thermal bank.
“We aimed to offload these thermal management tasks to a microwave driven process. Microwave is a fast heating method, because microwaves penetrate uniformly through materials and so deliver energy evenly into the body of the material,” Professor Yongliang Li, who is chair in Thermal Energy Engineering in Birmingham’s School of Chemical Engineering, said, as reported by Coolingpost.com.
The energy cost can be minimized by coupling with a smart meter to charge the system when energy is cheap, and the stored energy can then be used at any time. We predict that by replacing conventional HVAC and possibly a small portion of the battery pack, e-Thermal banks would provide efficient cabin temperature control and a range extension of up to 70%, at a lower cost than increasing battery capacity,” Li added.
University of Birmingham Enterprise has already filed a patent application for the e-Thermal bank system and is seeking commercial partners for licensing collaboration or co-development.
Boosting EV Battery Capacity
University of Birmingham’s e-Thermal bank sounds like a simple yet effective way to boost EV driving range. Scientists everywhere have been working round on technologies aimed at boosting the energy capacity of EV batteries.
Professor Soojin Park, PhD candidate Minjun Je, and Dr. Hye Bin Son from the Department of Chemistry at Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) has developed a high-energy-density Li-ion battery using micro silicon particles and gel polymer electrolytes that increases battery energy density by 40%.
Using silicon as a battery material presents several challenges. First off, silicon increases in volume more than three times during charging then contracts back to its original size while discharging, negatively impacting battery efficiency.
Employing nano-sized silicon (10-9m) addresses the issue; unfortunately, the production process is not only highly complex but also astronomically expensive, rendering it impractical for commercial batteries. The POSTECH research team has succeeded in developing an economical yet stable silicon-based battery system by utilizing gel polymer electrolytes. Unlike conventional liquid electrolytes, gel electrolytes exist in a solid or gel state in an elastic polymer structure that exhibits better stability than their liquid electrolytes.
The scientists employed an electron beam to form covalent linkages between gel electrolytes and micro-silicon particles. These covalent linkages disperse internal stress caused by volume expansion, alleviating the changes in micro silicon volume and enhancing structural stability.
The outcome was remarkable: the new battery exhibits stable performance even with micro silicon particles (5μm), a hundred times bigger than those used in traditional nano-silicon anodes. The best part: the new battery has an energy density 40% higher than conventional li-ion batteries. Further, the straightforward manufacturing process makes its commercialization easier.
Here in the U.S., the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory has developed a lithium-air battery that uses a solid electrolyte that could potentially boost the battery’s energy density by as much as four times above Li-ion batteries.
“For over a decade, scientists at Argonne and elsewhere have been working overtime to develop a lithium battery that makes use of the oxygen in air. The lithium-air battery has the highest projected energy density of any battery technology being considered for the next generation of batteries beyond lithium-ion,” Larry Curtiss, an Argonne Distinguished Fellow, said last year in a press statement.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 19:00 - "A Bold New Chapter": Macy's To Close 150 Stores, Focus On Luxury Consumer With Bloomingdale's
“A Bold New Chapter”: Macy’s To Close 150 Stores, Focus On Luxury Consumer With Bloomingdale’s
Macy’s announced on Tuesday that it is entering “A Bold New Chapter,” this time focusing on a more luxurious store design as part of its turnaround strategy, which involves shifting its target market from lower-income to wealthier consumers.
“Our portfolio of iconic and globally recognized nameplates, healthy balance sheet and fortified operations position us to execute A Bold New Chapter. This strategy is designed to create a more modern Macy’s, Inc. that is expected to generate meaningful value for our shareholders in the years ahead,” Tony Spring, chief executive officer of Macy’s, wrote in the earnings report.
The pivot first includes the big-box retailer closing 150 underperforming stores over the next three years. It expects to close at least 50 of these stores by the end of this year. By 2026, Macy’s footprint will shrink to about 350 stores, slightly more than half its number before Covid.
Second, the turnaround strategy focuses on higher-end brands and will include 15 new Bloomingdale’s and 30 Bluemercury stores by 2026.
Bloomberg noted, “The announcement, accompanied by fourth-quarter results, follows a $5.8 billion buyout offer from Arkhouse Management Co. and Brigade Capital Management in December. Macy’s rejected the offer, but last week, Arkhouse nominated nine directors to Macy’s board as the activist investor persists in its efforts.”
The turnaround plan to chase wealthier shoppers comes as Spring, who had a four-decade career at Bloomingdale’s before shifting over as the head of the parent company, warned: “The shopper is still under pressure.”
David Swartz, a retail analyst at Morningstar, noted that there is far less competition for Macy’s in the luxury department space and expects a “great future.”
The pivot comes as shares have crashed 71% since peaking at $69 a share in mid-2015.
In summary, Macy’s is giving up on the working poor as the Biden administration says the middle class is doing better than ever.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 18:40 - Trump Asks Judge To Block Testimony From Michael Cohen, Stormy Daniels
Trump Asks Judge To Block Testimony From Michael Cohen, Stormy Daniels
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald J. Trump speaks at a rally in Laconia, N.H., on Jan. 22, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times) Former President Donald Trump has asked the judge in his so-called “hush money” case to issue pretrial rulings that would block certain evidence and witness testimony that the former president says his opponents want to exploit to undermine his 2024 presidential campaign.
The case centers on allegations that President Trump falsified business records to hide $130,000 in payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels (whose real name is Stephanie Clifford) in exchange for keeping quiet about her allegations about an affair.
President Trump has repeatedly denied any affair or wrongdoing, while calling the case a politically-motivated ploy to hurt his chances of winning the race for the White House.
With trial scheduled to start on March 25, President Trump is now ramping up his rhetoric, accusing prosecutors in a 47-page motion filed on Monday of planning to put forward “improper arguments” and “inadmissible evidence” in order to bolster their “listless ‘zombie’ case” and interfere in the upcoming presidential election.
At the top of the list of what President Trump wants New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan to block is any new testimony from his former personal attorney Michael Cohen, who has admitted to lying to Congress.
Other demands include blocking testimony from Ms. Clifford, former Trump doorman Dino Sajudin, and former Playboy model Karen McDougal, as well as other requests related to evidentiary and procedural matters.
More Details
President Trump’s motion challenges the credibility of the witnesses, including calling Mr. Cohen a “liar” and suggesting Ms. Clifford would offer “false” testimony.
“The People should be precluded from suborning additional perjury by Michael Cohen,” President Trump’ attorney, Todd Blanche, wrote in the filing. He said Mr. Cohen lied to lawmakers in 2017 and, more recently, perjured himself while testifying at President Trump civil fraud trial in October.
The judge in President Trump’s civil fraud trial said that Mr. Cohen’s testimony was “significantly compromised” by his misleading statements to Congress and by some “seeming contradictions” in what he said at trial.
Still, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, who fined President Trump $355 million for supposedly inflating the value of his properties to get better loan terms, said he found Mr. Cohen’s testimony “credible.”
Mr. Blanche wrote in the filing that prosecutors have an obligation to ensure that testimony presented to judges and juries is truthful. He argued that it was a “troubling” violation of prosecutors’ ethical and constitutional obligations for them to push for testimony from Mr. Cohen, whom he called a “serial liar.”
President Trump’s attorney also asked the judge to issue a pretrial ruling that would render as inadmissible testimony from Ms. Clifford.
“The People should be precluded from offering testimony from or regarding Stephanie Clifford, who has made clear through public statements that she intends to offer false, salacious, and unduly prejudicial testimony relating to President Trump,” Mr. Blanche wrote in the filing.
Ms. Clifford wrote a tell-all memoir that included salacious details of her alleged tryst with the former president at a celebrity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe, California, in 2006.
She then promoted the book in a series of media interviews and talk show appearances, in which she claimed she was pressured to sign a non-disclosure agreement in return for $130,000 in hush money payments.
Ms. Clifford has also expressed enthusiasm to take the stand against President Trump.
Another of President Trump’s requests for a pretrial rulings is precluding prosecutors from characterizing the alleged hush money payments to Ms. Clifford as an attempt on his part to “improperly influence” the 2016 election.
“Essentially the People are arguing that efforts by a candidate to prevent adverse publicity about himself during a campaign equals an attempt to defraud,” President Trump’s attorney wrote in the filing.
“This argument has no basis in law and is an extraordinary perversion of our election system and the First Amendment,” he added.
President Trump’s motion also seeks to prevent prosecutors from introducing the so-called Access Hollywood recording, which “contains inflammatory and unduly prejudicial evidence that has no place at this trial about document and accounting practices,” as well as nearly 100 statements attributed to the former president that prosecutors have identified as potential exhibits but that “are largely irrelevant, stale, and cumulative.”
The motion comes on the heels of a Monday request by prosecutors to impose a gag order on the former president, preventing him from making certain public statements about the case.
What’s the Case About?
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted President Trump with 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to conceal $130,000 in payments to Ms. Clifford in exchange for keeping quiet about her allegations of an affair.
Mr. Cohen said he made $130,000 in a number of separate payments to Ms. Clifford via a shell company that was then reimbursed by President Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, and recorded as legal expenses.
In 2018, Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty to violating campaign finance law in connection with the payments. In his plea deal, Mr. Cohen claimed he made the payments at President Trump’s direction and that he was reimbursed by President Trump’s company, even though he earlier claimed he paid the money out of his own pocket.
Under New York state law, falsifying business records by itself is a misdemeanor. But if the records fraud was used to cover up or commit another crime, the charge could be elevated to a felony.
Mr. Bragg has charged President Trump with a felony falsifying records charge, which would require prosecutors to prove that it was done to hide the commission of a second crime.
A number of legal experts have challenged the validity of Mr. Bragg’s move to elevate the misdemeanor into a felony.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 02/27/2024 – 18:20
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