- I Keep Changing Channels But It's Still The Same Program
I Keep Changing Channels But It’s Still The Same Program
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
We can pretend an insanely over-leveraged, fragile status quo is rock-solid and will deliver the goodies regardless of anything short of an alien invasion or meteor-strike, but pretending will only take us so far.
I have the impression that changing the channels of “news”, “analysis” and “opinion” doesn’t modify the narrow band of what’s being offered. The bullish views are more or less all the same, and the occasional bearish counterpoint is equally bland. I keep changing channels but the program doesn’t vary.
This homogenization of opinion and analysis is so ubiquitous that it’s difficult to discern. That’s the point, of course; to present carefully pruned and curated “views” and “analysis” that stick to the same tired narratives of propaganda: the flavor changes and the talking heads / actors change, but the product remains the same: homogenized.
Like toothpaste, the virtually identical media product is packaged into supposedly competing “brands” to “differentiate” and “offer consumers more choices” to buy the same highly profitable product, engagement, i.e. addiction and derangement.
Fellow independent Mark St. Cyr and I discuss this homogenization and the forgotten value of experience in our recent podcast. The “marketplace” of ideas has been corporatized, i.e. reduced to a simulacrum / facsimile of competition, as the media and Big Tech have assembled quasi-monopolies of corporate cartels: a handful of global, politically powerful corporations control the entire media: the “news,” social media, etc.
The central state takes a keen interest in the power to control the “competing” narratives created by this corporate monopoly homogenization. Let’s not call it censorship–such an ugly word. Let’s call it “happiness,” a much more palatable and marketable slogan.
This homogenization serves to deliver the right mix of “happiness”: a bit of variation, colorizing the same old black-and-white narrative (Us vs Them), blend in a bit of spice (the latest conspiracy theory debunked), feature the car wrecks and riots, and then the ending wrap-up of puppies, kittens and kids.
Once again I’m reminded of this Houellebecq quote:
“I have the impression of being caught up in a network of complicated, minute, stupid rules, and I have the impression of being herded towards a uniform kind of happiness, toward a kind of happiness that doesn’t really make me happy.”
What’s been devalued isn’t just truly independent thinking–real-world experience has also been devalued. Mark and I both started out earning a living with hands-on skills–what was once known as “honest work” that created value you could actually touch and see.
In the rush to globalize, stripmine labor and rush poorly trained workers into the meat grinder–oops, I mean “productive labor force”–the kind of experience needed to truly understand how systems work and fix just about anything that goes awry has decayed. By specializing, segmenting and siloing tasks and skills into narrow bands of expertise, we’ve lost the kind of experiential knowledge that was once taken for granted.
This depth of experience can’t be rushed, packaged or commoditized. It has to be earned and learned the hard way, by making countless mistakes in the real world, learning from mentors and constantly advancing and practicing one’s skills. This level of experience is built on the foundation of pride in one’s work and the value one creates every day.
We also discuss the value of the old decentralized, middleman, family-owned biz model that was crushed by global corporate giants. As Mark notes, there used to be a phrase for the wholesaler / dealer middleman layer in the economy–“I have this guy, I know this guy”–for someone who really knew the field and could get the needed parts and supplies and could direct the small business owners to whatever fix-it was needed.
This layer of the economy has been decimated as it was deemed “inefficient” compared to vertically organized corporations. Nice, but this efficiency generates a second-order effect–extreme vulnerability and fragility once the specialized layers collapse and the system needs people who actually know more than their corporate slot.
Could family-owned enterprises served by localized wholesalers / jobbers actually become more effective than globalized, super-efficient corporations? Once the cracks start opening in globalization and a workforce homogenized into specialization, the hyper-efficient globalized model of doing business breaks down. This is currently considered “impossible,” for anyone pointing out the inherent fragilities of this maximizing-profit cartel-corporate system is, ahem, marginalized as an “unhappy” and therefore quickly deleted / demonetized influence.
We also discuss the value of thinking and acting in an entrepreneurial mindset of costs, benefits, risks, competition and constant learning / adaptation. This is the point of my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy: even if we’re an employee, we benefit from thinking about our career and livelihood in an entrepreneurial context, the core of which is creating value not just with our own work but by collaborating productively with others of the same mindset.
Taking control of one’s work and life is the heart of Self-Reliance. We can call this agency or entrepreneurial, the point is the same: stop buying into a system that no longer benefits you and start reducing your exposure to its intrinsic risks.
We also echo management guru Peter Drucker’s insight that enterprises don’t have profits, they only have costs. Fixed costs define the risk structure of enterprises and households alike; costs of production constrain what’s possible and what’s sustainable. What’s not sustainable will go away, regardless of what we’re told is “impossible.”
It won’t just be components that are on back-order: entire lifestyles will be out of stock. We can pretend an insanely over-leveraged, fragile status quo is rock-solid and will deliver the goodies regardless of anything short of an alien invasion or meteor-strike, but pretending will only take us so far.
* * *
My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century. Read the first chapter for free (PDF)
Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/28/2023 – 02:00 - BOJ Tweaks YCC For "Greater Flexibility", Sending Bond Yields Soaring
BOJ Tweaks YCC For “Greater Flexibility”, Sending Bond Yields Soaring
In a central bank decision that was a far more uncertain nailbiter than the Fed’s guaranteed 25bps hike, moments ago the BOJ revealed that in a unanimous vote it would keep rates at -0.1% and also keep the 10Y JGB yield target at 0%, but in an 8-1 vote (with Yakamura dissenting) said it would conduct yield curve control “with greater flexibility” (i.e. tweak it) by which it means that both the lower and upper bounds (but mostly upper) of yield control would be “references” not “rigid limits.”
What does that mean? Simple: while the BOJ is keeping the implied 10Y JGB target at 0.50%, it will allow the yield to rise as high as 1.0% (where it has a hard stop to buy all bonds that are for sale) but it also may not. This is how the BOJ explained it in its statement…
The Bank will continue to allow 10-year JGB yields to fluctuate in the range of around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from the target level, while it will conduct yield curve control with greater flexibility, regarding the upper and lower bounds of the range as references, not as rigid limits, in its market operations.
The Bank will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 1.0 percent every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations, unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted.
In order to encourage the formation of a yield curve that is consistent with the above guideline for market operations, the Bank will continue with large-scale JGB purchases and make nimble responses for each maturity by, for example, increasing the amount of JGB purchases and conducting fixed-rate purchase operations and the Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled Collateral.
… and visually:
So while everything else remains the same, going forward the BOJ will hard offer to purchase 10Y at 1.0% yield instead of 0.50% – which is where the target for the 10Y JGB remains – while leaving it to its discretion how much it will purchase at any one point between 0.5% and 1.0%.
Or, as Bloomberg’s Marc Cudmore puts it:
“so, wait, the target cap is still 0.5%, but the active cap is 1%? Huh? How does that work? Well, while the BOJ will no longer buy daily amounts of JGBs at a 0.5% yield, it will conduct nimble market operations to seek that target yield level. I.e. This theoretically means the BOJ could come in at any point to intervene to buy JGBs in order to lower yields to 0.5%. It might work a little like JPY intervention.
Realistically, how often will they do that, and in what manner? Well, that’s why investors are more excited by a BOJ press conference than they have been in years.”
Said otherwise, the BOJ was too scared to go ahead with explicit policy normalization and shift its 10Y target to 1%, so it is instead doing a half-assed job by implicitly moving the target to “test the waters” so to speak, and preserve the flexibility to revert if and when the bond market crushes it. But, as always happens, when a central bank does things half-assed and without a Draghi-esque “bazooka resolve”, the results is always catastrophic and this time won’t be any different.
Which means that we are about to see a whole lot more volatility in the JGB market as the market tests just how high the BOJ will allow yields to rise. And sure enough, at last check the 10Y was already yielding just north of 0.57% – or far above the previous YCC limit – ensuring that the BOJ has a lot of emergency bond buying ahead of it, just like in Dec/Jan when it tweaked YCC previously.
The rest of the statement was the usual compendium of excuses for why the BOJ will inevitably get everything wrong:
There are extremely high uncertainties for Japan’s economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms’ wage- and price-setting behavior. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
Japan’s recent inflation rates, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), are higher than projected in the April 2023 Outlook Report, and wage growth has risen, partly on the back of this year’s annual spring labor-management wage negotiations. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behavior, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again. If upward movements in prices continue, the effects of monetary easing will strengthen through a decline in real interest rates, while on the other hand, strictly capping long-term interest rates could affect the functioning of bond markets and the volatility in other financial markets. Such effects are expected to be mitigated by conducting yield curve control with greater flexibility.
Meanwhile, there are also significant downside risks to Japan’s economic activity and prices, including the impact of a tightening of global financial conditions on overseas economies. If such downside risks materialize, the effects of monetary easing will be maintained through a decline in long-term interest rates under the framework of yield curve control.
Only 18% of the 50 economists polled by Bloomberg expected a YCC tweak at this meeting (in no small part due to Bloomberg’s own reporting on the matter), though half foresaw such a move no later than October. In addition, there was a widespread view that any change to the program would have to come as a surprise, as any foreshadowing might trigger a massive bond sell-off, complicating the move. Instead, the bond selloff has just been delayed to, well, right now.
Eslewhere, while the BOJ did admit that inflation was higher than it expected in April, and it also did hike its 2023 core CPI forecast to 2.5% from 1.8% previously, the central bank bizarrely slashed its 2024 core CPI forecast from 2.0% to 1.9%, as inflation’s effects “are expected to be mitigated by conducting yield curve control with greater flexibility.” suggesting that no more “tweaking” or whatever it’s now called will be required, and instead the current yield differentials for the world’s carry currency of choice will remain for the foreseeable future.
To summarize the revised forecasts:
Real GDP
- Fiscal 2023 median forecast cut to 1.3% from 1.4%.
- Fiscal 2024 median forecast maintained at 1.2%.
- Fiscal 2025 median forecast maintained at 1.0%.
Core CPI
- Fiscal 2023 median forecast raised to 2.5% from 1.8%.
- Fiscal 2024 median forecast cut to 1.9% from 2.0%.
- Fiscal 2025 median forecast maintained at 1.6%.
The continuation of the main policy settings will likely enable Ueda to argue that the new guidance on the band was a technical move aimed at improving the sustainability of its stimulus, rather than a step toward imminent policy normalization.
In kneejerk response to the half-pregnant YCC tweak, which will do nothing to reverse Japan’s inflation problem but will do everything to spark another bond market crisis, the USDJPY first spiked by 200 pips before reversing the entire move…
… but a far more significant move was observed in 10Y JGBs whose yields were spiked as high as 0.57% – the highest level since 2014…
… while 10Y JGB futs tumble…
… as the market immediately tests just far the BOJ will allow bonds and yields to move.
Knowing well it would kick the bond market hornets nest, the BOJ immediately announce it would widen its range for purchase of medium and long-term JGBs in Aug.
- Offers to buy 400b-750b yen of 3-5 year JGBs 4 times/month
- Offers to buy 450b-900b yen of 5-10 year JGBs 4 times/month
- Purchase amounts of other maturities unchanged
To summarize: with today’s “less hawkish than expected” YCC tweak (see below) all the BOJ has done is buy itself a few weeks of a stronger yen, until the 10Y yield rerates from 0.5% to 1.0% (still far below inflation), before yield differentials re-emerge as the dominant power in currency pairs. Meanwhile, as part of its half-assed attempt to control both the currency and rates, the repricing of the entire JGB bond market, the 2nd largest in the world, will send shockwaves not only in Japan but across the globe. In fact, at last check, the 10Y TSY yield was at 4.03%, right at session highs.
* * *
Commenting on the BOJ’s decision, Khoon Goh head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group said that the Bank of Japan’s decision to tweak their yield curve control was in line with what the market had anticipated, but probably not as hawkish as previously feared.
“The range that the 10-year JGB yield is allowed to fluctuate remains unchanged, but greater flexibility has been introduced at the upper and lower bounds of the range.”
“How far yields will be allowed to trade beyond those limits is uncertain, and something which the market will no doubt try to test”, and indeed the relentless selling in 10Y JGB has confirmed just that.
“But there is a hard limit of 1% as the BOJ will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at that level every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations (up from 0.5% previously)” he said, adding that “market reaction has been very choppy as it is not a straightforward decision to digest. The yen is still gyrating, but risk assets have risen, as the tweak was not as bad as initially feared”
A somewhat more formal take came from former Bank of Japan assistant governor Kazuo Momma, who said that the central bank is making a little adjustment to the yield-curve control “because the exchange rate weakened before the meeting and there are risks it could decline further.” In other words, instead of buying the yen outright, the central bank has decided to cripple the bond market as well.
“My sense is that the hidden motivation for the BOJ is the exchange rate,” Momma, who is currently an executive economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies said on Bloomberg Television. A strict YCC may invite an undesirable weakening of the yen going forward, he said correctly.
“This is not the first step toward monetary policy normalization. I would characterize this as a mini-technical tweak not a tweak” Momma said adding that “this is not the time for the BOJ to send a message that this is the first step to policy normalization.”
Which is correct: the BOJ will never be able to normalize, instead the best it can hope for is to contain the collapse in the yen by keeping the market guessing, although after an initial period has passed, the selling in the yen will promptly resume.
Momma concluded that the press conference will be very important on how they convey the message on conducting YCC. “Changing the band would be sending a clearer message that they’re taking steps toward policy normalization but that’s the last thing they want.“
The problem with the BOJ is that what they want, and what they get, are usually two very different things.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/28/2023 – 00:14 - Hamptons Mansion Bidding Wars Persist
Hamptons Mansion Bidding Wars Persist
The US housing market has remained surprisingly resilient price-wise despite 7% mortgage rates. The Fed continues pushing interest rates to 22-year highs to curb the multi-year inflation storm. In the luxury market, bidding wars for mansions in the Hamptons hit a record high in the second quarter, even as prices and sales cooled.
About 31% of the mansions that closed in the quarter had several offers, topping the previous high of 27% set a year ago, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. This was for homes priced at $4.4 million and above, representing about 10% of transactions.
Justin Agnello, an East Hampton-based agent at Douglas Elliman, explained the continued bidding wars for luxury homes are because of a “lack of inventory.” He said if buyers “bring something to the market that’s really appealing, buyers are even more hungry for it.”
Across all homes in the seaside playground for Wall Street’s centi-millionaires and billionaires, 21% of all homes sold in the quarter were over asking prices. One example is 37 Dune Road #C in East Quogue, a five-bedroom beach house that Douglas Elliman listed for $3.25 million. The agent on the deal told the buyer to expect a $3 million sale, but after a four-way bidding war, the house sold for $3.526 million.
Strong demand for Hamptons single-family homes and condos persists even as the overall market in the beach community cools. Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman’s data showed the median sale price of a home in the area was around $1.45 million, a 9.4% decline in the second quarter versus the same quarter last year.
The biggest issue is inventory as buyers during Covid, fleeing NYC and other major metro areas, along with record low borrowing costs, went on a buying spree, leading to an inventory shortage. The good news is the number of listings available in the quarter rose 6.6% to 955 versus 2Q22.
Even with mounting macroeconomic uncertainty and the highest borrowing costs in decades, there’s still demand for Hamptons residential real estate even as the median prices in the second quarter are 71% higher versus 2Q22.
The overall theme is that the lack of available homes on the market puts upward pressure on prices. We saw that this week with the latest Case-Shiller figures for America’s 20 largest cities.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 23:45 - Watch: Mitt Romney Argues That It Shouldn't Be Illegal For Government To Use Big Tech For Censorship
Watch: Mitt Romney Argues That It Shouldn’t Be Illegal For Government To Use Big Tech For Censorship
Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,
During a Senate hearing Wednesday, Mitt Romney argued against an amendment proposed by Rand Paul to make it illegal for government to use social media and big tech companies to censor the views of Americans.
Paul put forth the case that “the First Amendment really isn’t about protecting the speech of government workers the First Amendment says Congress shall make no law it’s about limitations on government involvement with speech.”
Paul continued, “if Twitter says bad things about me and puts up bad things and takes me down I have no recourse against Twitter, same with Facebook. I’m mad, I hate that YouTube has taken my speeches down I don’t do business with them anymore, because I think they’re bigoted, biased and wrong-headed on this.”
“As far as threats, what we do know from the Twitter files is that the government was making threats,” Paul continued, adding “there were threats of Anti-Trust action against the companies if they didn’t take the material down, there was also threats of we will remove your 230 protection. Section 230 gives them liability protection and there were overt threats and threats in writing basically saying if you don’t take this down you know your 230 protection of liability could go away.”
“I think the government should be absolutely prohibited without question. I think it should be as Draconian as you probably can make it,” Paul continued, adding “things that are an opinion, the government has no business in this.”
Romney disagreed with him, claiming that individuals within the government should have the right to stop social media companies or legacy media companies from putting out content that is “wrong”.
Romney stated “To say that no employee of the government from the president on down to that millions of people who work in the government can speak with a social media company or a Legacy Media Company and express their point of view that an article is wrong or that Avenue they’re going down is wrong, that would shut off free speech.”
Watch:
The debate comes on the heels of a Federal Judge issuing a recent injunction to put a stop to the Biden Administration acting like an “Orwellian Ministry Of Truth” by colluding with big tech to censor opinions it doesn’t like, much to the disliking of the establishment media.
* * *
Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/
In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.
Also, we urgently need your financial support here.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 22:40 - Cases Of Severe Tropical Disease Exploding With No End In Sight: WHO
Cases Of Severe Tropical Disease Exploding With No End In Sight: WHO
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
This transmission electron microscopic image depicts a number of round dengue virus particles that were revealed in this tissue specimen. (Frederick Murphy/U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that cases of dengue fever could reach record highs this year.
Dengue rates are rising globally, with reported cases since 2000 up eight-fold to 4.2 million in 2022, a WHO official said on July 21.
In January, the WHO claimed that dengue is the world’s fastest-spreading tropical disease and alleged it could be a “pandemic threat.”
The disease was found in Sudan’s capital Khartoum for the first time on record, according to a health ministry report in March, while Europe has reported a surge in cases and Peru declared a state of emergency in most regions.
About half of the world’s population is now at risk, Raman Velayudhan, a specialist at the WHO’s control of neglected tropical diseases department, told journalists in Geneva on Friday.
Cases reported to the WHO hit an all-time high in 2019 with 5.2 million cases in 129 countries, said Mr. Velayudhan via video link.
This year the world is on track for “4 million plus” cases, depending mostly on the Asian monsoon season. Already, close to 3 million cases have been reported in the Americas, he said, adding there was concern about the southern spread to Bolivia, Paraguay, and Peru.
Argentina, which has faced one of its worst outbreaks of dengue in recent years, is sterilizing mosquitoes using radiation that alters their DNA before releasing them into the wild.
“The American region certainly shows it is bad and we hope the Asian region may be able to control it,” Mr. Velayudhan said.
Officials in the European Union said that as of June 8, 2023, some 2.1 million cases have been reported around the world, with 974 deaths.
“Dengue is occurring in urban areas where it did not exist before,” Coralith Garcia, associate professor at the school of medicine at Cayetano Heredia University in Peru, told Fox News this week. The virus is on the rise in Peru because “it’s so crowded that anything can happen,” she added.
An Aedes aegypti mosquito on human skin in a lab of the International Training and Medical Research Training Center in Cali, Colombia, on Jan. 25, 2016. (Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images) “But Peru had the highest COVID mortality rate [in] the world and now we have several patients dying of dengue, confirming that the Peruvian health system is very weak,” Ms. Garcia said.
What Is Dengue?
Dengue fever can be caused by the dengue virus 1, 2, 3, or 4, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The illness is transmitted primarily via the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which the CDC says is active during the day.
The most common symptom of dengue is a fever with nausea, vomiting, rash, aches, and pains, including eye pain, muscle pain, and bone pain. Symptoms generally last between two and seven days, the CDC says.
There is no specific medicine to treat dengue, which is sometimes called breakbone fever. The CDC notes that most cases of dengue reported in the United States occurred in people who traveled elsewhere, although the isolated spread of dengue has occurred in Arizona, Hawaii, Texas, and Florida.
Most patients who contract dengue fever recover without hospitalization, said Dr. David O. Freedman, a former professor with the University of Alabama at Birmingham.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 22:30 - Who Has Qualified For The First RNC Debate?
Who Has Qualified For The First RNC Debate?
According to website FiveThirtyEight, six candidates for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential primaries have so far met the criteria to participate in the first Republican National Committee debate, scheduled for August 23.
Those who have since July 1 managed to poll at at least 1 percent in three eligible polls and have gathered at least 40,000 individual donors (out of which 200 each must be located in 20 different states) are former President Donald Trump, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, former South Carolina governor and Trump ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, as well as Sen. Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The RNC’s metrics are more stringent than those of the Democratic National Committee in the last election cycle, when 20 candidates qualified for the first DNC debate, causing it to be held on two separate nights. For one, candidates have to meet both the polling and the donor metric. One requirement in particular concerning polls – that they have to include 800 likely Republican primary voters or caucus-goers – meant it took more than three weeks into the qualifying time period for a first list of candidates to emerge.
Remaining presidential hopefuls have until August 21 to meet the criteria.
Trump’s vice president Mike Pence has so far only fulfilled the polling benchmark, but hasn’t announced he has met the donor threshold. It is the other way round for North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, who sent gift cards of $20 to donors for contributions as low as $1.
None of the criteria appear to be met for candidates Asa Hutchinson, Francis Suarez, Will Hurd and Larry Elder.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 22:00 - Scientists Call For Nature Medicine To Retract 'Proximal Origins' Lab-Leak Denial: Thacker
Scientists Call For Nature Medicine To Retract ‘Proximal Origins’ Lab-Leak Denial: Thacker
Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The Disinformation Chronicle,
Internal communications finding that virologists did not believe the conclusions they published in a prestigious journal has triggered scientists to circulate a petition calling for Nature Medicine to retract the influential “Proximal Origins” paper that denied the possibility of a lab accident in Wuhan, China, and misled the public during the pandemic’s first crucial years. Within days, the petition garnered over 1,300 signatures and set the hashtag #RetractProximalOrigins trending on Twitter.
The torrent of virologists’ internal communications became public following a House hearing earlier this month, during which Scripps Research’s Kristian Andersen submitted false testimony about the Nature Medicine paper. Last week, The Intercept published newly revealed documents finding that Andersen and his co-author, Robert “Bob” Garry of Tulane University, both lied to Congress during the House hearing about whether they had pending federal grants controlled by Anthony Fauci that could have been used as to influence them.
The NIH is clear about its process. “Council recommends an application for funding. NIAID makes the final decision,” the agency explains. “The main NIAID advisory Council must recommend an application for funding before we can award a grant, although the Institute makes the final funding decision,” the agency goes on.
The grant wasn’t finalized until May 21, 2020. In other words, it was on Fauci’s desk at the time of the conference call. Andersen’s lab announced the funding in a press release in August 2020, nine months after he claimed it was already finalized. The press release describes it as a “new $8.9 million grant.”
Many of the virologists’ internal emails and Slack messages began leaking onto Twitter, followed by a joint Public and Racket investigation. The messages showed scientists were deeply concerned that the COVID virus could have been engineered or leaked from a Wuhan lab, even as they publicly ridiculed such thinking as a “conspiracy theory.”
In one example, Andersen wrote his colleagues on February 1, 2020, in a private Slack message, “I think the main thing still in my mind is that the lab escape version of this is so friggin’ likely to have happened because they were already doing this type of work and the molecular data is fully consistent with that scenario.”
That following day, Andersen added another private message to virologists, “The main issue is that accidental lab escape is in fact highly likely – it’s not some fringe theory.”
“Someone needs to lay out the science of all this before it gets out of hand (and creates more formal investigations),” emailed Andersen’s Nature Medicine co-author a week later.
After Andersen and colleagues published the Nature Medicine piece denying the possibility of a lab accident, Andersen tweeted that the paper failed to sway conspiracy theorists, likening people who questioned a Wuhan lab accident to those who denied the moon landing.
On Friday, The Telegraph published an article on the virologists’ communications, noting that one of the Nature Medicine authors feared the “shit show” that would result if they accused China of starting the pandemic. Nature Medicine told the paper that the journal would not retract the piece, which was intended to present a “point of view” on the issue rather than being a research study.
Subscribers to The Disinformation Chronicle can read the rest here…
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 21:40 - Why There's No Quick Fix For China's Ailing Property Market
Why There’s No Quick Fix For China’s Ailing Property Market
By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
China’s top housing official has stepped up rhetoric meant to revive the housing market. It comes after the Politburo removed “the housing is not for speculation” slogan from the readout of its meeting, which increased expectations for more support for the market. Unfortunately, there’s no panacea to end the crisis quickly.
Hang Seng futures pointed to a weaker opening Friday. Strong US data spurred a dollar rally and higher US Treasury yields, which may weigh on foreign inflows to China. A Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan may discuss changing the yield-curve control policy added to uncertainties.
On the China front, the news flow continues a pattern of traders going “long on the words, short on actions.” Top housing official on Thursday urged more support, including calling for homebuyers who had paid off previous mortgages to be considered as first-time purchasers, so that they could enjoy lower mortgage rates. (The so-called “recognizing houses but not loans” policy.）
None of the talking points are entirely new. In 2022, 57 cities have adopted the “recognizing houses” policy, according to Nomura, citing data from China Real Estate Information Corp. Altogether, nearly 300 cities issued almost 600 various easing measures last year, including lowering down payments and loosening purchasing restrictions.
If that hasn’t helped prop up the market already, one can be excused for having doubt that any incremental, piecemeal measures will do the trick.
In a report published in June, Nomura’s economists, including Lu Ting, listed a few reasons why investors should lower their expectations on the housing stimulus, even though more support is likely to come.
For starters, Beijing simply has no appetite for a policy bazooka when the priority is focused on security and sustainability. So forget about another round “shantytown renovation” programs. That scheme, which offered cash compensation for homes demolished in less-developed areas, helped turn around a housing downturn in 2015-2016, but it also helped fueled a real estate bubble in lower-tier cities.
Second, some easing measures will likely increase sales of existing homes, strengthening expectations of home price declines and delaying purchases.
It’s questionable that China will meaningfully ease restrictions in big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. Even if it does, easing in big cities may crowd out the demand for homes in low-tier cities, which have been the driver of commodity demand and construction activity over the past decade.
Smaller cities are still suffering from the overhang of the shantytown renovations, which have pulled forward home demand. These cities are facing high leverage, falling home prices and population outflows. Coupled with a large amount of unfinished projects and the withdrawal of private developers, a sustainable property rebound there is questionable.
Finally, the capability and willingness of Chinese households to borrow and buy homes may have been significantly reduced, even in large cities, once expectations that housing prices can only go up have been shattered.
All told, an “L-shaped” recovery in housing is all one can hope for.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 21:20 - Leftist Parents "Flee" Florida Because Of New Laws Blocking Child Mutilation
Leftist Parents “Flee” Florida Because Of New Laws Blocking Child Mutilation
A recently passed Florida law, known as Senate Bill 254, now makes transgender surgeries and hormone therapies with irreversible effects illegal for minors in the state while also requiring people to use bathrooms and locker rooms according to their biological sex. Circumventing the often cited problem of narcissistic parents using their children as political fashion accessories, the law outlines the reality that minors do not have the capacity to consent and that sex change procedures should wait until they are adults. It also sets a standard for dozens of states across the country seeking the stem to tide of destructive biological denial associated with far left ideology.
Of course, not everyone is happy that state governments are coming to their senses and protecting children from mutilation – Some leftist parents say they must now “flee” places like Florida in order to “keep their children safe.”
People are fleeing Florida in a state of panic and fear. pic.twitter.com/n4PPcL8FJe
— Dr. Jebra Faushay (@JebraFaushay) July 27, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Political mass migrations of Americans are now commonplace with millions upon millions of people leaving blue states in particular after their authoritarian covid policies inspired anger rather than compliance.
And perhaps this is for the best – Certain social concepts simply cannot coexist and it’s better that leftists who exploit children as props for activism not live so close to conservatives and moderates that view this practice as abhorrent. Certainly all sides come out happier (except maybe the unfortunate children being groomed), and surely the majority of Floridians are glad to see such people go.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 21:00 - Trump Makes Appeal To Unions Emboldened Under Biden Administration
Trump Makes Appeal To Unions Emboldened Under Biden Administration
Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President Joe Biden delivers a speech on NATO at the Vilnius University in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023, after the end of the NATO Summit. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images) / Former U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during the Georgia state GOP convention at the Columbus Convention and Trade Center in Columbus, Ga., on June 10, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) When former President Donald Trump released a campaign video outlining plans to boost the auto industry last Thursday, he took the opportunity to court the United Auto Workers (UAW), which has notably withheld its endorsement of President Joe Biden as contract negotiations continue and the threat of yet another strike looms.
While Mr. Trump’s appeal might have interested a few rank-and-file workers, it certainly wouldn’t have swayed union leadership.
“I think they feel emboldened,” said Mark Mix, of the union leadership. As president of the National Right to Work Foundation, Mr. Mix has watched labor negotiations closely over the years, and the tone they’ve taken on this year is unusual.
Unions routinely vote to authorize a strike ahead of negotiations, just to have it as a chip on the bargaining table, but the language union leaders have been using this summer has become “militant,” Mr. Mix said.
The Teamsters, which just reached a deal with UPS today, walked away from the table twice and announced intent, not just authorization, to strike on a historic scale over a month ahead of the end of the contract. Sean M. O’Brien, the newly elected president, had gone on CNN ahead of Tuesday’s negotiations to say of their tactics, “we strategize, we organize, now it’s time to pulverize.” He had asked the White House to not intervene if they went on strike.
The UAW, which began negotiations with the Big Three automakers last week as the current contract expires Sept. 14, has likewise made a lot of noise about its willingness to strike before talks even began.
“There is a new environment. These union officials feel empowered,” Mr. Mix said. “And I think one of the reasons that is the fact and why we’re seeing more of this saber-rattling is because the Biden administration … basically has created an environment where the union officials think the Department of Labor, and the Department of Justice, and the National Labor Relations Board—which are the three agencies that would be involved and interested in in violence, intimidation, or violation of individual workers rights—that they’re controlled by the Biden administration.”
“Union officials feel like they’re emboldened by this White House and this administration to do basically whatever it takes to get what they’re demanding,” he said.
In Thursday’s video, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Biden’s policies affecting the auto industry, referencing unsold electric vehicles “piling up on car lots” by the thousands.
“They are absolutely destroying your business,” Mr. Trump said of the government subsidies for electric vehicles at the expense of the market. “That’s why I’m going to terminate these Green New Deal atrocities on day one.”
He touted his track records on trade, including the NAFTA renegotiation, and how that benefited the auto industry. “I saved the auto industry once, and now I will save it again,” he said.
That same day, Mr. Biden visited a shipyard in Philadelphia to speak on “Bidenomics” and “clean energy” jobs.
“A lot of my friends in organized labor know: When I think climate, I think jobs. I think union jobs,” he said. “Here today, workers from nine different unions will start building a vessel called the Acadia. It’s going to place heavy rocks at the base of the offshore wind projects to stabilize them when they put these down, and it’s going to protect it against erosion.”
Where Are the Union Jobs?
Experts say that while the Biden administration benefits union leadership and is pro-unionization, it has a mixed record when it comes to rank-and-file workers.
Mr. Mix pointed to the cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline project, which was meant to bring tens of thousands of union jobs. He said the administration had also fanned the flames of possible strikes in other ways, including with its pandemic-era policies. Stimulus checks and unemployment gave many no reason to work, and UPS had to raise wages in order to increase its workforce.
“Everyone who has been working for UPS and was on the job was saying, ‘Wait a minute, how can somebody who has just started today make the same amount that I’m making?’ So that caused the demand for these wage increases, for the part-timers in particular,” Mr. Mix said.
F. Vincent Vernuccio, senior fellow at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy and the Center’s director of labor policy between 2012 and 2017, said that some of the UAW jobs could be going away because of the president’s push for electric vehicles.
He pointed to a recent report estimating that the new electric vehicle targets could eliminate 117,000 manufacturing jobs.
“You’re seeing it reflected in jobs moving down south to right-to-work states,” he said, referring to states that make forced unionization illegal. Employees who want to cross the picket line and work when unions have issued a strike have to do it legally, else face fines or other disciplinary action from the unions. He said that large, industrialized unions tend to have one-size-fits-all contracts that benefit some but not all workers, making the administration’s push for unionization where there was none before a net negative. He advocates instead for term flexibility for workers, unionized or not.
Of the jobs that are left, Mr. Mix says you can be sure the union leadership is demanding the Biden administration guarantee they will be union jobs.
“That’s what they’re demanding now, more privilege and more power,” Mr. Mix said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 20:40 - US Pilot Shortage Might Not Be Resolved Until 2032
US Pilot Shortage Might Not Be Resolved Until 2032
Air travel demand soared back to pre-Covid times during the Fourth of July holiday weekend. But with rising demand for air travel comes persistent flight delays and cancellations due to a pilot shortage. Some of the reasons for a pilot shortage have been a surge in early retirements during the pandemic, a mandatory retirement age of 65, a shrinking pool of potential pilots from the military, and a challenging value proposition for civilians to pursue a career as a pilot.
We have told readers there’s “no quick fix” to the severe pilot shortage. Airlines like American Airlines have seen flight disruptions this summer due to a lack of pilots.
Current figures from the Federal Aviation Administration show the aviation industry is short 32,000 commercial pilots, mechanics, and air traffic controllers — and the gap continues to expand by the year.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told CBS News his office is investigating several airlines that book “unrealistic” scheduling by selling seats ahead of scheduling personnel to fly planes.
“If you look at the delays, for example, that America experienced through last year in the summer 2022, a lot of that was driven by these companies not having the staff that they needed,” Buttigieg said.
“This is not something that’s going to be worked out overnight. It took years to get this way,” he warned.
Wichita State University emeritus associate professor Dean Headley said, “The pilot shortage won’t be resolved until 2032 or something like that.”
Headley said airlines can train 1,500 to 1,800 pilots a year but noted with a deficit of 17,000 pilots, “we can’t catch up that quick.”
The current pilot shortage has forced commercial airlines to “cut back flights to smaller regional airports. So, people [who] are not at a major airport will find that their flight schedules have been reduced simply because they don’t have enough people to put in an airplane to fly it somewhere,” Headley explained
Besides a pilot shortage, the Office of Inspector General for the Department of Transportation revealed in early July there was also a severe shortage of air-traffic controllers. And just like pilots, it takes years to train air-traffic controllers.
One airline lobbying group has asked Congress to allow just one pilot in the cockpit to alleviate the shortage.
The shortages in pilots and air-traffic controllers won’t be resolved anytime soon. No longer can airlines blame the “weather.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 20:20 - Turley Unleashed: Hunter Biden’s Judge Raised The One Question The White House Most Fears
Turley Unleashed: Hunter Biden’s Judge Raised The One Question The White House Most Fears
Authored by Steve Straub via The Federalist Papers,
Watch as Constitutional Law Professor Jonathan Turley reveals why Democrats are now panicking over Hunter Biden, and the question of whether he is, or is not, a foreign agent.
Turley: Hunter Biden’s Judge Raised the Question the W.H. Most Fears, Was He A Foreign Agent and For What Purpose? pic.twitter.com/RxZnpHuDWr
— Alexandra Datig | Front Page Index 🇺🇸 (@alexdatig) July 27, 2023
“I think part of the problem is they really did want to cap out the case.”
“The Department of Justice wanted to cap this investigation. But they didn’t want to say that it was now over.”
“From the very beginning, the Hunter Biden team said this is a close-out plea agreement. There would be nothing left to investigate.”
“But the Department of Justice is telling Congress we’re not going to give you these witnesses or these documents because there’s an ongoing investigation.
“You can’t do both things when a judge is asking you to specifically address whether this is a close-out or a continuing investigation…”
“This is a big problem. This was all supposed to be scripted. It was all supposed to be easy. And now it is off script and it is anything but easy.
“Because the judge just raised the one charge that the White House most fears which is the chance that Hunter was a foreign agent. And if he was a foreign agent, the question is foreign agent for who and for what purpose?”
“The president was that purpose. If you’re influence peddling, it’s influence over the president. So if you go for FARA, it’s going to bring all of this stuff in.”
“Including some of these tax accounts for 2014 and 15 that the Department of Justice allowed to run, allowed the statute of limitations to expire.”
“All of that can get boot strapped into a FARA issue. The whole purpose of this deal is collapsing as we’re watching it. And it’s taken Washington by utter surprise. I was on the Hill talking with members and everyone was floored.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 20:00 - Port Of Baltimore Is One Of The "Hottest Beds Of Stolen Vehicles Leaving The Country"
Port Of Baltimore Is One Of The “Hottest Beds Of Stolen Vehicles Leaving The Country”
A wild report from Arlington 7News I-Team found two of the four Mercedes, including a $200,000 G-Wagon, stolen from a Bethesda, Maryland, dealership earlier this year — were recovered at the Port of Baltimore before being shipped off to Africa.
7News I-Team was given exclusive access to the Port of Baltimore in recent weeks. While talking with US Customs and Border Protection agents, a scan of one container found the missing vehicles in a container destined for West Africa.
Months after the thefts, the 7News I-Team was at the Port of Baltimore when US Customs and Border Protection agents intercepted two of the cars stolen from the Bethesda dealership. The cars, valued at more than $400,000, were discovered before they disappeared overseas.
The shipping container manifest indicated one car was destined for West Africa, but an X-ray scan revealed three cars inside. 7News’ cameras rolled as US Customs and Border Protection agents opened the shipping container’s gate, revealing the dealer plates intact and providing critical evidence for the ongoing investigation.
Bethesda Euro Motorcars General Manager Jim Willard was ecstatic when he learned the news his cars were found:
“I couldn’t even believe it. I couldn’t believe it. I figured these were long gone.”
Willard highlighted:
“Port of Baltimore, from my understanding, is one of the hottest beds of stolen vehicles leaving the country.”
We detailed the surge in stolen vehicles recovered from seaports in Baltimore, Wilmington, Del., and Philadelphia in 2019 hit a record high.
7News I-Team pointed out a recent explosion in car thefts across the Montgomery County region where the dealership is located.
Car thefts have also erupted in Baltimore City, where the Port of Baltimore is located. Baltimore Banner reporter Justin Fenton tweeted about the out-of-control crime.
The number of car thefts in Baltimore reached 383 for the week of 7/22 – as @BaltimoreBanner previously reported, the city typically had 200 to 300 per MONTH before this surge. There’s been 1,380 over the past 28 days https://t.co/UWh1vuW3oK
— Justin Fenton (@justin_fenton) July 25, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
It’s important to note that the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area is controlled by Democrat politicians who are failing at enforcing law and order.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 19:40 - Trump, Maintenance Guy Charged With Trying To Delete Surveillance Footage At Mar-a-Lago
Trump, Maintenance Guy Charged With Trying To Delete Surveillance Footage At Mar-a-Lago
Former President Donald Trump and a maintenance guy at Mar-a-Lago were charged with attempting to delete surveillance footage.
In a superseding indictment filed on Thursday, Trump and the worker charged under the Espionage Act, bringing the total number of counts Trump faces to 42.
It accuses Trump of acting with Carlos de Oliveira, the property manager of the hotel, and Trump’s other co-defendant Walt Nauta, with trying to delete the footage.
The indictment notes efforts from de Oliveira, 56, to determine how long security footage was stored on the Mar-a-Lago system. It says he later told another Mar-a-Lago employee that “‘the boss’ wanted the server deleted.”
The indictment also described de Oliveira and Nauta organizing their plans secretly, apparently walking among the bushes around the IT office where the security footage was managed. –The Hill
Meanwhile the president of a Ukrainian gas company allegedly paid the current US president $5 million dollars in connection with a quid pro-quo in which a prosecutor investigating said company – which employed the president’s son for $80k/month, was fired. Said Ukrainian oligarch also made several recordings of said shady dealings as an ‘insurance’ policy, for which no special counsel has been appointed.
Anyway…
De Oliveira has been summoned to appear in a Miami courthouse on Monday, where he’ll face charges of lying to investigators about allegedly moving boxes at the property, where he says he “never saw anything.”
The indictment also adds a thirty-second document to the tally for which Trump is facing charges of violating the Espionage Act, a top secret document on a presentation about military activity in a foreign country.
The superseding indictment comes as a Washington grand jury met in another special counsel probe into Trump’s efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election. -The Hill
Trump responded following the new indictment, with his campaign calling it “nothing more than a continued desperate and flailing attempt by the Biden Crime Family and their Department of Justice to harass President Trump and those around him.”
“Deranged Jack Smith knows that they have no case and is casting about for any way to salvage their illegal witch hunt and to get someone other than Donald Trump to run against Crooked Joe Biden,” the statement continues.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 19:13 - 62% Of Food Derived From Forced Labor Is "Likely Produced In The U.S."
62% Of Food Derived From Forced Labor Is “Likely Produced In The U.S.”
International Labor Organization estimates say that up to 28 million people could be coerced into forced labor as part of the country’s food chain on any given day, a new study highlighted by Forbes revealed this week.
The study was published Monday in the journal Nature, and it found that forced labor – once thought to be an issue only outside of the United States – is actually taking place within the country’s borders.
Social risk assessments and case studies of labour conditions in food production primarily focus on specific subpopulations, regions and commodities. To date, research has not systematically assessed labour conditions against international standards across diverse, complex food products. Here we combine data on production, trade, labour intensity and qualitative risk coding to quantitatively assess the risk of forced labour embedded in the US land-based food supply, building on our previous assessment of fruits and vegetables.
We demonstrate that animal-based proteins, processed fruits and vegetables, and discretionary foods are major contributors to forced labour risk and that 62% of total forced labour risk stems from domestic production or processing. Our findings reveal the widespread risk of forced labour present in the US food supply and the necessity of collaborative action across all countries—high, middle and low income—to eliminate reliance on labour exploitation.
The findings included the fact that 62% of products sold in the U.S. and produced by forced labor were “likely produced in the U.S.”. The highest risk of foods using forced labor come from animal-based proteins, processed fruits and vegetables and discretionary foods, the report says.
It also notes that sweeteners, coffee, wine, and beer all require handpicking or significant processing, and can also be at risk. Forbes concluded that “more often than not, when forced labor produces the food Americans eat, it likely happens within the U.S. instead of at foreign locations that import food”.
The study’s authors conclude that trade bans and trade sanctions are the “most effective tools” in preventing forced labor. Poverty, language barriers and precarious immigration statuses contribute to the risk of people being forced into work.
It uses the International Labor Organization’s definition of forced work, described as “situations in which persons are coerced to work through the use of violence or intimidation, or by more subtle means such as accumulated debt, retention of identity papers, or threats of denunciation to immigration authorities.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 19:00 - Biden Admin Cancels $130 Million In "CollegeAmerica" Student Loans
Biden Admin Cancels $130 Million In “CollegeAmerica” Student Loans
The Biden administration will cancel $130 million in federal student grants for roughly 7,400 borrowers who attended a now-defunct Colorado college, the Department of Education announced Tuesday.
The cancellation applies to borrowers who attended CollegeAmerica locations between Jan. 1, 2006 and July 1, 2020, and will only apply to federal student loans, not private loans or commercial (FFEL) loans.
The decision was made after the Colorado attorney general’s office found that CollegeAmerica parent company, the Center for Excellence in Higher Education (CEHE), made widespread misrepresentations about the salaries and employment opportunities available to graduates (like every college?).
In a statement, President Joe Biden said that borrowers at CollegeAmerica “were lied to, ripped off, and saddled with mountains of debt.”
More via the Epoch Times
CollegeAmerica was at one point a for-profit institution, with locations in Arizona and Colorado.
Borrowers will be notified in August about the discharge, which will occur automatically. Any payments those borrowers made to the Education Department will be refunded.
“Today’s announcement shows how different parts of government can work together to deliver relief to those who’ve been taken advantage of,” said Richard Cordray, who heads the Federal Student Aid office at the department.
The move is the latest effort from the Biden administration to provide relief to borrowers who attended colleges accused of misrepresenting their student outcome and degree offerings.
“CollegeAmerica knowingly took advantage of students by luring them into high-priced, low-quality programs with promises of high-earning potential and job placement that it knew were not attainable,” Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser said in a statement. “Protecting borrowers from predatory lending and helping Coloradans navigate through student loan burdens will continue to be a priority for our office.”
Mr. Weiser’s investigation found that Colorado CollegeAmerica campus graduates on average earned just $25,000 five years out of school, less than the salaries of high school graduates publicized by the school, the press release stated.
CEHE were also found to inflate and falsify job placement rates. Furthermore, CEHE told borrowers that its private loan product was affordable when it knew that 70 percent of Colorado CollegeAmerica borrowers had defaulted on their loans.
CollegeAmerica campuses in Colorado stopped new enrollments in 2019, closed by September 2020, and closed all its remaining campuses in August 2021, according to the press release.
Borrowers who were misled or whose school “engaged in other misconduct in violation of certain state laws” can apply for loan discharge under the Borrower Defense Loan Discharge program.
To date, the Biden administration has approved $116 billion in loan forgiveness through various federal programs to over 3.4 million Americans. Of those borrowers, 1.1 million attended colleges that defrauded them or abruptly closed, according to the White House.
Mr. Biden has made addressing mounting U.S. student debt a top priority since taking office in January 2021, including by pursuing a plan to provide $430 billion in loan relief. However, the Supreme Court blocked that plan in a June 30 ruling. Biden has vowed to pursue the relief through new measures.
Earlier this month, the Biden administration announced that it would be canceling more than $30 billion in student loans for 800,000 borrowers under the existing income-driven repayment program.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 18:40 - These Will Be The Fastest Growing (And Declining) Industries In The US Over The Next Decade
These Will Be The Fastest Growing (And Declining) Industries In The US Over The Next Decade
The labor force is always shifting, responding to technological or societal changes.
For that reason, keeping an eye on the fastest growing industries can help workers and businesses stay on top of the crucial trends driving employment.
Today, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao looks through projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the fastest growing industries, as well as those that are the fastest declining, by percentage employment change between 2021 and 2031.
Ranked: Fastest Growing Industries By Employment Change
Event Promoters, Agents, and Managers top the list of fastest growing industries, with an impressive predicted growth of 39%, employing over 180,000 workers by 2031.
Amusement Parks and Arcades follows close behind, with an expected 38% increase—adding over 60,000 new employees—in the same time period. Ranked third, the Performing Arts industry will start the next decade with around a 100,000-strong workforce, up 35% from 2021.
Below is the full list of BLS’ projected fastest growing industries, ranked by percent change in employment, between 2021–2031.
Rank Industry Sector Change
(2021-2031)% Change
(2021-2031)1 Event Promoters,
Agents & ManagersLeisure &
Hospitality50,800 +39% 2 Amusement Parks
& ArcadesLeisure &
Hospitality60,500 +38% 3 Performing
Arts CompaniesLeisure &
Hospitality28,400 +35% 4 Individual &
Family servicesHealth Care 850,000 +31% 5 Mining Support
ActivitiesMining 69,700 +31% 6 Spectator Sports Leisure &
Hospitality36,500 +31% 7 Other Information
ServicesServices
& Other112,900 +30% 8 Other Personal
ServicesServices
& Other87,200 +28% 9 Travel &
Reservation
ServicesProfessional &
Business Services32,300 +23% 10 Agriculture &
Forestry SupportAgriculture
& Forestry26,200 +23% 11 Artists, Writers
& PerformersLeisure &
Hospitality11,500 +23% 12 Accommodation Leisure &
Hospitality333,700 +23% 13 Private Education
ServicesServices
& Other169,200 +22% 14 Government Transit Services
& Other61,200 +22% 15 Home Health
Care ServicesHealth Care 330,100 +22% 16 Health Practitioners Health Care 205,500 +20% 17 Film, Video, &
Audio RecordingServices
& Other75,300 +20% 18 Museums &
Historical SitesLeisure &
Hospitality27,600 +20% 19 Computer
Systems DesignProfessional &
Business Services455,200 +20% 20 Professional,
Scientific &
Technical ServicesProfessional &
Business Services144,100 +18% Note: Services & Other sector includes Information, Education and State & Local Government industries.
All of the top three industries belong to the Leisure and Hospitality sector, which accounts for seven of the 20 fastest growing industries. This outsized performance reflects recovery more than pure growth, as the BLS notes that the Leisure and Hospitality sector was unduly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, giving it a lower-than-usual baseline in 2021.
Ranked fourth by employment change percentage is Individual and Family Services, though it is actually expected to see the largest growth in total employment terms, adding 850,000 new workers by the end of the decade. It is one of three industries in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector with large projected growth, thanks to an increased need for care service due to an aging American population.
Not to be missed is Computer Systems Design, projected to grow by 20% in employment thanks to growing demand for computing infrastructure and IT security. Due the industry’s sheer size in employment force with 2.3 million workers in 2021, that’s close to half a million additional workers over the next decade.
Ranked: Fastest Declining Industries By Employment Change
Tobacco Manufacturing leads the group of industries expected to register employment declines by 2031, with a projected decrease of 53% in employment, bringing its already small workforce down to only 5,000 employees by the end of the decade. This stark decline is not necessarily driven by waning smoking habits, as cigarette sales in the U.S. went up during the pandemic. Instead, further automation of the industry may replace tobacco manufacturing employees.
Another industry facing a similar situation is CDs & Tapes Manufacturing, which is expected to witness a 51% reduction in employees by 2031.
Below is the full list of BLS’ projected fastest declining industries, ranked by percent change in employment, between 2021–2031.
Rank Industry Sector Change
(2021-31)% Change
(2021-2031)1 Tobacco
ManufacturingManufacturing -5,700 -53% 2 CDs & Tapes
ManufacturingManufacturing -5,800 -51% 3 Apparel & Leather
ManufacturingManufacturing -41,800 -36% 4 Printing Manufacturing -96,800 -26% 5 Coal Mining Mining -9,500 -26% 6 Newspaper &
Book PublishersServices
& Other-60,000 -24% 7 Satellite &
TelecommunicationsServices
& Other-19,300 -22% 8 Cable Programming Services
& Other-9,700 -21% 9 Other Furniture
ManufacturingManufacturing -7,600 -20% 10 Engine & Power
Transmission
Equipment
ManufacturingManufacturing -14,800 -17% 11 Railroad Rolling
Stock ManufacturingManufacturing -3,100 -16% 12 Rental Services Services &
Other-22,200 -15% 13 General Machinery
ManufacturingManufacturing -39,800 -15% 14 Iron Ore & Steel
Scrap SmeltingManufacturing -10,600 -13% 15 Lighting Equipment
ManufacturingManufacturing -5,600 -13% 16 Metalworking
ManufacturingManufacturing -21,100 -13% 17 Logging Agriculture
& Forestry-6,000 -13% 18 Textile Mills Manufacturing -26,100 -13% 19 Agriculture,
Construction &
Mining Machinery
ManufacturingManufacturing -25,500 -13% 20 Office Furniture
ManufacturingManufacturing -12,600 -13% Most of the industries facing large total employment contraction belong to the Manufacturing sector. The troubles of American manufacturing aren’t new, but the variety of industries presented suggests a mix of factors causing slumps across the sector.
Some industries like Printing, Cable Programming, and Newspaper and Book Publishers face shifting consumption habits.
Meanwhile, others like Textiles, Apparel, and Furniture Manufacturing are expected to suffer from further automation and shifted production abroad.
Factors Shaping Future Employment Trends in the U.S.
It’s important to note that these projections by the BLS were released in September 2022. That means they do not reflect the rapid rise of generative AI like ChatGPT and how they have begun to affect the economy.
A recent Goldman Sachs report, for example, stated that AI could replace 300 million jobs—almost the size of the U.S. population—around the world in the next 10 years.
That makes it an open and important question as to whether AI or powerful demographic trends, such as slower population growth and an aging workforce, will be the most impactful in terms of determining the future employment landscape.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 18:20 - Watch: Joe Biden Won't Pardon Hunter, White House Backtracks On Business Deals
Watch: Joe Biden Won’t Pardon Hunter, White House Backtracks On Business Deals
The White House on Thursday ruled out the possibility that President Biden would end up pardoning his son, Hunter, after a federal judge on Wednesday rejected an absurd plea deal which effectively made Hunter bulletproof from future prosecution for various crimes.
The judge’s decision puts Hunter’s case on hold for several weeks as both sides submit new materials to judge Maryellen Noreika, Axios reports.
Watch:
BREAKING: @whitehouse @PressSec says President @JoeBiden will not pardon his son, Hunter Biden if convicted of tax fraud and probably other crimes. WATCH pic.twitter.com/MKedWodHVe
— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) July 27, 2023
Meanwhile, the White House has backtracked on its language concerning Joe Biden’s claim that he ‘never discussed’ Hunter’s business dealings with his son, after evidence emerged late last month contradicting that claim.
“I have never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings,” Biden claimed in September 2020 on the campaign trail. One month later, he doubled down in a radio interview, saying “I don’t discuss business with my son.”
Except, in late June a text message presented during testimony by IRS whistleblowers before the House Ways and Means Committee reveals Hunter essentially asking a Chinese businessman where their bribe is.
“I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled,” wrote Hunter via WhatsApp on July 30, 2017. “Tell the director that I would like to resolve this now before it gets out of hand, and now means tonight.“
Hunter then warned that “if I get a call or text from anyone involved in this other than you, Zhang or the chairman, I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.“
Spin, baby!
Now, the White House’s verbiage is a bit different when it comes to Hunter and Joe – after Ian Sams, a spokesman for the White House counsel’s office, told the Washington Examiner “As we have said many times before, the president was not in business with his son.”
The White House press secretary repeated the line on Tuesday.
As RealClear Wire notes;
Asked by RealClearPolitics at the daily White House briefing Wednesday why the language had shifted and if both statements were simultaneously true, Karine Jean-Pierre replied, “Nothing has changed on this. You could ask me a million different ways on this question. Nothing has changed.”
The exchange was enough for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, the chairwoman of the House Republican conference, to allege that the White House was engaged in a coverup.
“The facts are the facts,” Stefanik told RCP. “The White House has changed their statement on Hunter Biden. The American people are smart and no matter how many times the Biden White House claims otherwise, they know that the White House is lying.”
While administration aides have repeatedly side-stepped questions about Hunter Biden’s business dealings with Ukrainian and Chinese businesses, citing the fact that the president’s son “is a private citizen,” this is not the first time the president’s inner circle has insisted that the father and son were not business partners.
During the 2020 presidential campaign, a spokesman for Biden told the New York Times that the former vice president never had any stake in his son’s myriad dealings. “Joe Biden has never even considered being involved in business with his family, nor in any overseas business whatsoever.” The White House has only recently returned to that language.
The ongoing political controversy was compounded by new legal drama Wednesday when a plea deal between Hunter Biden and federal prosecutors stemming from two misdemeanor tax charges was unexpectedly placed on hold. The defense was reportedly shocked that the deal, which would spare the president’s son from prison, would not shield him from future prosecution under other laws that notably include the Foreign Agent Registration Act.
Leo Wise, the lead prosecutor for the Department of Justice, said in federal court that there was “an ongoing investigation.” When the court asked for more details, Wise reportedly replied that he wasn’t “in a position where I can say.”
Legal wrangling to salvage or update that plea agreement is ongoing, but House Republicans will continue to press their own case. Devon Archer, a close friend and former business partner of Hunter Biden, is set to speak to lawmakers behind closed doors next week. The New York Post reported earlier this week that Archer will testify that Hunter Biden was in the habit of calling his father, then Vice President Joe Biden, and placing him on speakerphone during business meetings with foreign companies.
House Republicans were already doing a close reading of previous White House statements when Jean-Pierre, asked about the New York Post report, said Monday that the president “was never in business with his son.”
Led by Stefanik, House Oversight Chairman James Comer of Kentucky, Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan of Ohio, and Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith of Missouri sent a letter to the White House demanding answers about their updated language.
House Republicans allege that the shift in language came after the House Oversight Committee discovered messages between Hunter Biden and a Chinese business associate where the president’s son alleged that he was “sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled.”
Stefanik told RCP that they have not heard back from the Biden administration. “The White House Counsel has until tomorrow to respond to our oversight letter demanding answers to Joe Biden’s involvement in Hunter Biden’s shady foreign business practices,” she said before adding, “We will not stop until all of the corruption comes to light and accountability is served.”
The White House referred reporters to the DOJ and to Hunter Biden’s legal representatives Wednesday, describing his legal trouble “as a personal matter for him.”
“As we have said, the president, the first lady, they love their son, and they support him as he continues to rebuild his life,” Jean-Pierre said to kick off the briefing.
Until adding this summer that the president and his son were never in business together, the White House continued to refer to Biden’s previous statements from the campaign trail. Was it still the case, a reporter asked in April 2022, that Biden had never spoken to his son about his business dealings? Then-White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki replied, “Yes.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 18:00 - Shoplifter Strolls Past CNN Reporter As She Profiles Rampant San Fran Crime
Shoplifter Strolls Past CNN Reporter As She Profiles Rampant San Fran Crime
San Francisco’s crime situation is so bad that even CNN decided to shine a spotlight on it — and while they were shooting from the nation’s most-robbed Walgreens, a shoplifter casually walked by the reporter and camera with stolen merchandise.
In fact, CNN’s Kyung Lah says she and her crew observed three shoplifters in just 30 minutes at a Walgreens in San Francisco’s Richmond District, which is bordered by Golden Gate Park and the Presidio. Among the company’s 9,000 US stores, that one is robbed the most — an average of 12 times a day.
“In the 30 minutes we were at this Walgreens we watched three people, including this man, steal,” says Lah, as the accompanying video shows a messy man with stringy hair and a winter jacket walk right out the store with some type of product in his hands. Turning to a cashier, she asks, “Did that guy pay?” The cashier replies with a simple “no.” Naturally, CNN protected the thief’s identity by blurring his face.
The particular Walgreens featured in the story is the same one that garnered social media buzz earlier this month after installing heavy chains and padlocks across the frozen food coolers.
NEW: The Walgreens at 16th/Geary in San Francisco has chained up the freezer section ⛓️
Workers said normally shoplifters clean out all the pizza and ice cream every night. They’re usually hit 20x a day. The whole store is virtually locked up. @KPIXtv
h/t @greenbergnation pic.twitter.com/lfFWmkLWdo
— Betty Yu (@bett_yu) July 18, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Lah reports that store workers, fed up with being ripped off a dozen times daily, installed the highly conspicuous chains and padlocks on their own initiative. However, after the imagery was widely shared across social and traditional media, Walgreen’s corporate leadership ordered the locks removed, apparently fearing the visuals would damage the company’s brand more than they would underscore the increasingly desperate situation for retailers in San Francisco and other crime-plagued cities.
While the unsightly hardware is gone, an astonishing proportion of the store’s products are behind locked plexiglass, from mustard to maple syrup to cough medicine. At another retailer, CNN showed frozen foods under cable locks, while the purchase of products like fake eyelashes and lotion also requires asking an employee for help.
In San Francisco, we went to the Walgreens that is the #1 spot for theft in all the 9000 US stores, per Walgreens. This is where chains once shut the freezer section. And we saw 3 thefts right in front of us. But across SF, coffee, mustard, nail polish– are all locked up: pic.twitter.com/IfYBVgpeI2
— Kyung Lah (@KyungLahCNN) July 25, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
CNN’s Lah also observed ground coffee under lock and key. Asked for his perspective, a clueless customer told her, “I don’t understand why coffee [would be locked up.] It’s become kind of like a police state in San Francisco.” Of course, any rational observer would realize the locked-up coffee demonstrates San Francisco has become the opposite of a “police state,” as criminals steal property with utter impunity.
California’s Prop 47 chummed the waters for shoplifters by making thefts of up to $950 of merchandise a misdemeanor. Now, Sacramento legislators are working hard to make things even worse: Last month, the state senate passed a bill that would make it illegal for store employees to confront thieves.
Hell-bent on wealth redistribution, it seems California’s Marxist rulers are as happy to enable it by individual, criminal acts as they are via government programs.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/27/2023 – 17:55
Digest powered by RSS Digest
Saving...
