Today’s News 28th June 2020

• Escobar: Why Iran Won't Be Broken
  Escobar: Why Iran Won’t Be Broken
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sun, 06/28/2020 – 00:00

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

  So what’s goin’ on in Iran? How did the Islamic Republic really respond to Covid-19? How is it coping with Washington’s relentless “maximum pressure”?

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  These questions were the subject of a long phone call I placed to Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran – one of Iran’s premier, globally recognized analysts.

  As Marandi explains:

  “Iran after the revolution was all about social justice. It set up a very elaborate health care network, similar to Cuba’s, but with more funding. A large hospital network. When the coronavirus hit, the US was even preventing Iran to get test kits. Yet the system – not the private sector – managed. There was no full shutdown. Everything was under control. The numbers – even contested by the West – they do hold. Iran is now producing everything it needs, tests, face masks. None of the hospitals are full.”

  Expanding Marandi’s observations, Tehran-based journalist Alireza Hashemi notes, “Iran’s wide primary healthcare system, comprising public clinics, health houses and health centers is available in thousands of cities and villages”, and that enabled the government to “easily offer basic services”.

  As Hashemi details, “the Health Ministry established a Covid-19 call center and also distributed protective equipment supplied by relief providers. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the armed forces to help – with the government deploying 300,000 soldiers and volunteers to disinfect streets and public places, distribute sanitizers and masks and conduct tests.”

  It was the Iranian military that established production lines for producing face masks and other equipment. According to Hashemi, “some NGOs partnered with Tehran’s chamber of commerce to create a campaign called Nafas (“breath”) to supply medical goods and provide clinical services. Iran’s Farabourse, an over-the-counter stock market in Tehran, established a crowd funding campaign to purchase medical devices and products to help health workers. Hundreds of volunteer groups – called “jihadi” – started producing personal protective equipment that had been in short supply in seminaries, mosques and hussainiyas and even natural fruit juices for health workers.”

  This sense of social solidarity is extremely powerful in Shi’ite culture. Hashemi notes that “the government loosened health-related restrictions over a month ago and we have been experiencing a small slice of normality in recent weeks.” Yet the fight is not over. As in the West, there are fears of a covid-19 second wave.

  Marandi stresses the economy, predictably, was hurt:

  “But because of the sanctions, most of the hurt had already happened. The economy is now running without oil revenue. In Tehran, you don’t even notice it. It’s nothing compared to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey or the UAE. Workers from Pakistan and India are leaving the Persian Gulf in droves. Dubai is dead. So, in comparison, Iran did better in dealing with the virus. Moreover, harvests last year and this year have been positive. We are more self-reliant.”

  Hashemi adds a very important factor:

  “The Covid-19 crisis was so massive that people themselves have pitched in with effort, revealing new levels of solidarity. Individuals, civil society groups and others have set up a range of initiatives seeking to help the government and health workers on the front line of countering the pandemic.”

  What a relentless Western disinformation campaign always ignores is how Iran after the revolution is used to extremely critical situations, starting with the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Marandi and Hashemi are adamant: for older Iranians, the current economic crisis pales in comparison with what they had to put up with throughout the 1980s.

  Made in Iran soars

  Marandi’s analysis ties up the economic data. In early June, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht – responsible for planning Iran’s state budgets – told the Majlis (Parliament) that the new normal was “to sideline oil in the economy and run the country’s programs without oil.”

  Nobakht stuck to the numbers. Iran had earned just $8.9 billion from the sale of oil and related products in 2019-20, down from a peak of $119 billion less than a decade ago.

  The whole Iranian economy is in transition. What’s particularly interesting is the boom in manufacturing – with companies focusing way beyond Iran’s large domestic market towards exports. They are turning the massive devaluation of the rial to their advantage.

  In 2019-20, Iran’s non-oil exports reached $41.3 billion. That exceeded oil exports for the first time in Iran’s post-revolutionary history. And roughly half of these non-oil exports were manufactured goods. Team Trump’s “maximum pressure” via sanctions may have led to total non-oil exports going down – but only by 7%. The total remains near historic highs.

  According to Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data published by the Iran Chamber of Commerce, private sector manufacturers were seriously back in business already in the first month following the relaxation of the partial lockdown.

  The fact is Iranian consumer goods and industrial products – everything from cookies to stainless steel – are exported by small and medium enterprises to the wider Middle East and also to Central Asia, China and Russia. The myth of Iranian “isolation” is, well, a myth.

  Some new manufacturing clusters bode well for the future. Take titanium – essential for myriad applications in military, aerospace, marine industries and industrial processes. The Qara-Aghaj mine in Urmia, the provincial capital of West Azarbaijan, which is part of Iran’s mineral belt, including the country’s largest gold reserves, has tremendous potential.

  Iran features in the Top 15 of mineral-rich countries. In January, after getting the technology for deep-level mining, Tehran launched a pilot project for extraction of rare earth minerals.

  Still, Washington pressure remains as relentless as the Terminator.

  In January, the White House issued yet another executive order targeting the “construction, mining, manufacturing, or textiles sectors of the Iranian economy.” So Team Trump is targeting exactly the booming private sector – which means, in practice, countless Iranian blue-collar workers and their families. This has nothing to do with forcing the Rouhani administration to say, “I can’t breathe”.

  The Venezuelan front

  Apart from a few scuffles between the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Health Ministry about China’s response to Covid-19, the Iran-China “comprehensive strategic partnership” (CSP) remains on track.

  The next big test is actually in September. That’s when Team Trump wants to extend the UN arms embargo on Iran. Add to it the threat to trigger the snapback mechanism inbuilt in UNSC resolution 2231 – if other Security Council members refuse to support Washington and let the embargo expire for good in October.

  China’s mission at the UN has stressed the obvious. The Trump administration unilaterally abandoned the JCPOA. Then it reimposed unilateral sanctions. Thus it has no right to extend the arms embargo or go for the snapback mechanism against Iran.

  China, Russia and Iran are the three key nodes of Eurasia integration. Politically and diplomatically, their key decisions tend to be taken in concert. So it’s no wonder that was reiterated last week in Moscow at the meeting of Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Javad Zarif – who get along famously.

  Lavrov said, “We will be doing everything so that no one can destroy these agreements. Washington has no right to punish Iran.”

  Zarif for his part described the whole juncture as “very dangerous”.

  Additional conversations with Iranian analysts reveal how they interpret the regional geopolitical chessboard, calibrating the importance of the axis of resistance (Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Hezbollah) in comparison with two other fronts: the US and its “stooges” (the House of Saud, UAE, Egypt), the master – Israel – and also Turkey and Qatar, which, like Iran, but unlike the “stooges”, favor political Islam (but of the Sunni variety, that is, the Moslem Brotherhood).

  One of these analysts, pen name Blake Archer Williams, significantly remarks, “the main reason Russia holds back from helping Iran (mutual trade is almost at zero) is that it fears Iran. If Trump does not have a Reagan moment and does not prevail on Iran, and the US is in any event driven out of the Middle East by the continuing process of Iran’s weapons parity and its ability to project power in its own pond, then all of the oil of the Middle East, from the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, to Iraq, of course, and not least to the oilfields in Saudi Arabia’s Qatif region (where all the oil is and is 100% Shi’ite), will come under the umbrella of the axis of resistance.”

  Still, Russia-China continue to back Iran on all fronts, for instance rebuking the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for giving in to US “bullying” – as the IAEA’s board last week passed a resolution submitted by France, Britain and Germany criticizing Iran for the first time since 2012.

  Another key foreign policy front is Venezuela. Tehran’s soft power, in quite a spectacular manner keenly observed all across the Global South, de facto ridiculed Washington’s sanctions/blockade in its own Monroe Doctrine “backyard”, when five Iranian tankers loaded with gasoline successfully crossed the Atlantic and were received by a Venezuelan military escort of jets, helicopters, and naval patrols.

  That was in fact a test run. The Oil Ministry in Tehran is already planning a round two of deliveries to Caracas, sending two or three cargos full of gasoline a month. That will also help Iran to offload its huge domestically produced fuel.

  The historic initial shipment was characterized by both sides as part of a scientific and industrial cooperation, side by side with a “solidarity action”.

  And then, this past week, I finally confirmed it. The order came directly from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In his own words: “The blockade must be broken”. The rest is – Global South – history in the making.

  

• China Unveils World's First Robotic And Contactless Restaurant  
  China Unveils World’s First Robotic And Contactless Restaurant  
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 23:30

  We could be looking at one of the world’s first-ever robotic restaurants, located in Guangdong, China. The timely opening of the contactless restaurant comes as the industry is hell-bent on reducing human-to-human contact due to virus transmission risks. 

  The Qianxi Robot Catering Group, a subsidiary of Country Garden, recently announced in a press release that is has opened up a robot-powered restaurant in the city of Shunde in China’s Guangdong province.

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  “Powered by the latest in advanced technologies, the restaurant has separate sections for Chinese food, hot pot, and fast food and features a wide selection of dishes, each one of which is delivered to the waiting diner within seconds,” the release states. 

  The restaurant has more than 20 robots capable of preparing up to 200 menu items that can be served in as little as 20 seconds. Many of the dishes are Chinese cuisine, clay pot rice, and noodles.

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  Though the release wasn’t specific on robot tasks in the kitchen, there is a fleet of pink server robots on the front-end of the restaurant that delivers dishes to patrons. 

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  As the virus pandemic continues to rage, robot-run restaurants are taking off across the world. We noted Friday, fast-food chain Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) debuted the “restaurant of the future,” where automation and food lockers dominate the storefront. 

  Zhao Chunsheng, a robot specialist and professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: “The Qianxi robot restaurant has innovatively achieved both software-hardware integration and man-machine cooperation. It helps to better run a smooth operation through the practical application of robots.” 

  “Qianxi has the most advanced technology with a vast product lineup. It fills the market gap and will have a significant impact on benchmarking in adding value to industry development as well,” Chunsheng said. 

  Country Garden’s robo-restaurant could be one of the world’s first automated eateries. We’ve noted kitchens have partially delegated some tasks to robots, such as flippy, the robot hamburger chef, blended with some human interaction. 

  The pandemic has undoubtedly accelerated the automation phase of restaurants worldwide – recent studies we’ve cited indicate that robots and artificial intelligence will displace tens of millions of jobs by 2030. 

  

• 2020 Election Will Be A Contest Of The Angry
  2020 Election Will Be A Contest Of The Angry
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 23:00

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via RealClearPolitics.com,

  The old 2020 election was supposed to be about many familiar issues. It is not any more.

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  Up until now, the candidates themselves would supposedly be the story in November. The left had cited Trump’s tweets and erratic firings as windows into his dark soul.

  The right had replied that an addled and befuddled Joe Biden was not really a candidate at all.

  Instead he was a mere facsimile who would have to be carried to the Election Day on the shoulders of the Democratic party, only shortly to fade away.

  Then a radical vice president soon could implement a hard-left agenda by succession what she could not through election.

  Issues themselves are no longer likely to decide the election either. Not long ago progressives argued that the miracle Trump economy was in shambles, done in by plague, quarantine and riot.

  They thundered that it was what you would expect from Trump’s innate chaos — a mess that would have to be invented if it had not existed.

  The right had countered that deregulation, energy development, tax reform and reindustrialization that made America Great would make American Great — Again.

  For all of 2019 and 2020, Democrats had claimed that a calm abroad would return with a Biden win. They talked of reestablishing the influence of postwar American-led diplomacy, soft power, traditional alliances, transnational organizations and the United Nations.

  Trump Republicans believed all that was more the problem, not the solution. They argued that America’s relationships with NATO, China and the European Union were now at least founded on reality, not dangerous fantasies and stale bromides.

  Trump opponents saw the November election as a return to Washington normality: no more fights with the press, no more paranoia of a deep state, no more dissident generals, canned FBI leaders or exasperated CIA officials.

  Trump’s base instead had seen the November election as the last chance to drain the federal swamp of careerists, apparatchiks, corporate flunkies and various grifters.

  These unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats, lobbyists and revolving-door functionaries over the prior decades had hacked at the Bill of Rights, stagnated the economy, mired the nation in endless winless wars and mortgaged the country to China.

  But that conundrum is ancient history now.

  For nearly a month, the nation has been consumed by massive protests and chronic riots, looting and arson.

  The catalyst for the demonstrations — the violent and wrongful death of African American George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police — is itself fading from connections with the ensuing upheavals.

  Statues are toppled. Names are abruptly changed. Careers cancelled.

  Police are both reviled — and walking off the job. Retired generals are no longer seen as conservative traditionalists but radicals themselves who dare to take on the commander-in-chief.

  Downtown Seattle is no longer in the control of the city government.

  The internet is aflame with self-appointed sleuths. They scour hours of video, and millions of words, searching for an indiscreet past remark — as fodder to take out a political opponent, a rival for a job or a personal enemy.

  The people’s energy, tranquilized by a two-month national quarantine and terror of the coronavirus, has suddenly exploded in both massive protests and silent seething at the lawlessness.

  The result is that for good or evil, the 2020 election is no longer really about Biden and Trump, Democratic or Republican policies, or progressive and conservative agendas.

  No, it is now about America as it has been before May 2020 — always flawed, but constantly improving, and not perfect but far better than the alternatives — and what has now followed.

  Much of the country believes that America is racist, cruel and incapable of self-correction of its so-called original sins — without a radical erasure of much of its past history, traditions and customs.

  It sees occasional violence as a necessary stimulant of long overdue change. It argues that the American founding focus on liberty and freedom as increasingly selfish and incompatible with social justice and equality.

  Racism, the protesting left says, is in the American DNA. It finally requires massive cutting, chemotherapy and radiation — treatment that deservedly will sicken and may even kill the host.

  The other half of the country will vote to preserve what is under attack. They feel that the dreamy world of the demonstrators and rioters is an Orwellian vision far worse than the present reality that they are protesting.

  America in their view is the world’s only large, successful multiracial democracy. It is the dream destination of the world’s immigrants — precisely because its ancient institutions adapt and change for the better, but only if they are preserved and allowed to work.

  The angry and the demonstrating are loud and visible; their opponents are angry and quiet.

  The election will reveal not just who is more numerous — but sadly also who is the angriest.

  

• Shots Fired: Saudi Arabia Forced 3 Iranian Boats From Its Territorial Waters
  Shots Fired: Saudi Arabia Forced 3 Iranian Boats From Its Territorial Waters
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 22:30

  A rare moment where Saudi and Iranian vessels were in a direct standoff in what described as Saudi territorial waters has been revealed Saturday by Saudi state news agency SPA.

  Saudi Arabia says its coast guard forced no less than three Iranian vessels out of its territorial waters after firing warning shots. 

  While it’s unclear whether the Iranian boats had military personnel or perhaps civilian fishermen, the Saudi maritime border patrol issued repeated warnings, and then fired shots signaling it was ready to engage, SPA described.  

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  As the Iranian vessels pushed forward, the warning shots were then fired according to a Saudi border guards spokesman. 

  The last similar incident was in 2017 but the reverse situation. In that prior case it was Iran that seized a Saudi fishing boat and arrested fishermen for violating its territorial water. In a tit-for-tat move, Saudi Arabia did the same in 2018.

  Iran’s Mehr News says this newest tense incident occurred days ago, on Thursday, and described fishing boats that were blown off course, but that the vessels have now returned to Iran. 

  Typically hostile incidents don’t occur directly between Saudi and Iranian forces, but instead there’s been heightening clashes involving proxy forces, whether in Yemen, Iraq, or Syria – where proxy wars involving Sunni and Shia rival forces vying for control have raged for years. 

  Lately the US itself has warned Iranian fast boats to stay clear of American vessels or risk being fired upon, given over past months a number of “harassment” incidents by IRGC vessels circling larger US warships have been recorded. 

  

• "There's A Better Way Than This" – Wounded Warrior's Lament On American Patriotism Goes Viral
  “There’s A Better Way Than This” – Wounded Warrior’s Lament On American Patriotism Goes Viral
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 22:00

  Authored by Susan Katz Keating via JustTheNews.com,

  As the American homeland is roiled by conflict, a combat veteran’s hymn to comradeship and patriotism has reverberated on social media among warfighters who long for the lost clarity of war.

  “I miss the battlefield,” wrote Jim Lechner, an Army Ranger and retired officer, in a social media post.

  “Not the burning heat, the ache of heavy armor or the cold darkness of hostile ground. I miss the clarity.”

  A veteran of multiple Special Operations missions, Lechner has spent much time downrange, and was wounded in the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu in Somalia.

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  Now a history professor, he told Just the News that he wrote the essay because he now sees too much negativity within the United States, and he wanted to say something positive.

  “I wanted to remind my comrades that there’s a better way than this,” Lechner said.

  In the essay that he posted on Facebook, Lechner recalled combat where the enemy “churned, blended, twisted and turned.” He described pandemonium with one saving constant: his countrymen.

  “Americans were like rocks, Gibraltars in a storm,” he wrote. “In the midst of the chaos, Americans were handholds on the cliff, bridges over the abyss of terrorism and treachery.”

  In the thick of fighting, the only thing he looked for was an American uniform.

  “The camouflage and combat literally and figuratively melted everything else together,” Lechner wrote. “No race, no religion, no politics, just Americans.”

  Within hours of posting the note on Sunday, hundreds responded, sharing and resharing the sentiments.

  “I don’t know if every service person can relate, but every warrior can!” wrote one Army veteran who is black.

  “Actually we were just one race, Marine Green,” posted a veteran who is white and who served in Desert Storm. 

  One Army veteran who served with Lechner in Afghanistan took what for him was a rare action, and shared the post.

  “It struck a chord with me because he says clarity, and I get that,” retired Army Col. Tim Nye told Just the News. “The war really is clear compared to what we have now.”

  The post talks about unity, said Nye, a Ranger and Special Operations veteran. 

  “In the battlefield, it’s us, Americans, regardless of our background,” Nye said. “He’s talking about the bond. He’s talking about simplicity, especially if you fight for your life. Jim has fought for his life before.”

  The essay overall would resonate with anyone who knows what it’s like to have a shared bond, Nye said, adding, “He’s talking about holding on to shared experiences that hold us together rather than what tears us apart.”

  The full essay by Jim Lechner follows:

  I miss the battlefield. Not the burning heat, the ache of heavy armor or the cold darkness of hostile ground. I miss the clarity. We were fighting an enemy, who though often vile, was completely clear on his cause and beliefs. They were willing to live hard and die hard for what they believed in, no matter how misguided.

  Most of all I miss Americans. In a war between tribes, religions, sects and ideologies, the enemy often churned, blended, twisted and turned. But Americans were like rocks, Gibraltars in a storm. In the midst of the chaos, Americans were handholds on the cliff, bridges over the abyss of terrorism and treachery.

  The battlefield is the great crucible. On our battlefields the one virtue that mattered was an American would stand fast and have your back. The bond and the lifeline in combat were other Americans. The Americans to your left and right had no hyphens. I scanned for NODs and kevlars not faces or skin. In a street or alley, on the side of a mountain or sand berm all I looked for was an American uniform with a shoulder flag.

  The camouflage and combat literally and figuratively melted everything else together. No race, no religion, no politics, just Americans. There is clarity and a physical purity in that. Today at home, in the United States, I miss the battlefield.

  

• BuzzFeed "Reporter" Who Got Zerohedge Banned On Twitter, Fired For Plagiarism
  BuzzFeed “Reporter” Who Got Zerohedge Banned On Twitter, Fired For Plagiarism
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 21:45

  Almost five short months ago, ‘journalist’ Ryan Broderick was the envy of his fake news peers. The BuzzFeed ‘senior reporter’ had just written a hit-piece against Zero Hedge slamming us over the ‘conspiracy theory’ that COVID-19 may have emerged from a lab in Wuhan, China, and claiming that we doxed one of their scientists. Hours later, we were summarily kicked off of Twitter – a ban which has since been reversed after the social media giant admitted they were in error. Meanwhile, the lab origin ‘conspiracy theory’ has gained widespread support and is now the focus of several international investigations into the CCP lab.

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  Less than 48 hours after our February Twitter ban, internet sleuths discovered that Broderick had previously blogged about pedophilic fantasies involving young boys. Why he wasn’t fired on the spot is anyone’s guess. Perhaps former BuzzFeed editor-in-chief Ben Smith (now with the ‘Pedophilia: A Disorder, Not A Crime‘-promoting New York Times) has a soft spot for Ryan. 

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  On Friday, Broderick was fired for plagiarism after BuzzFeed‘s new editor-in-chief, Mark Schoofs, published “A Note To Our Readers” detailing eleven instances where Broderick lifted content from other publications without attribution going back to 2013, including his hit-piece against Zero Hedge.

  “BuzzFeed News has found that the following articles do not meet our editorial standards, as laid out in our standards and ethics guidelines,” reads Schoofs’ note. “As a result, the articles have been updated to more clearly attribute phrases and sentence construction to material previously published by other news organizations.”

  Which is a long-winded way to say: ‘Our Senior Reporter got caught plagiarizing eleven times, so we’re doing damage control.’

  It’s their pedo sympathizer @broderick – apparantley he would just copy and paste from AP articles.https://t.co/zrl1zhD6Tc

  — Rick McHelney (@FunkoHunter) June 27, 2020

  And now, Ryan can simply learn to code. Perhaps he should avoid blogging, photography and playgrounds.

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• "Stressed All The Time" – Millennials/Gen Z-ers See Job Mobility Plunge
  “Stressed All The Time” – Millennials/Gen Z-ers See Job Mobility Plunge
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 21:30

  The Deloitte Global Millennial Survey 2020 found nearly half of all Gen Z and millennial respondents were stressed during the COVID-19 pandemic as job mobility declined. 

  The survey reveals that close to half (48%) of Gen Z and 44% of millennial respondents said they’re stressed all or most of the time. 

  “Pandemic-related shutdowns have hit these generations hard, especially younger members. Almost 30% of Gen Zs and a quarter of younger millennials (25–30 years old) who took our pulse survey in late April or early May reported either losing their jobs or having been placed on temporary, unpaid leave. At that point, about one in five millennials around the world had been put out of work,” the study said.

  Origins of the stress are directly related to the virus-related socio-economic collapse, resulting in one of the deepest recession, if not, depression, since the 1930s. The labor force is severely damaged, with tens of millions of unemployed and recovery that could take several years. 

  As the economy deteriorates, so does a dynamic labor market, and that means changing jobs will become even harder as mobility declines. 

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  The share of millennial respondents who said they would leave a job within two years plunged to 31% from 49% – while those who said they would stick with their current job for more than five years rose to 35% from 28% in last year’s survey. 

  Gen Z respondents showed about half of these folks would like to change careers within two years, down from 61% in last year’s survey. 

  Six in 10 of all respondents said they would like the opportunity of working remotely rather than relocating for a job, although Gen Zers were more interested in moving. A little more than half of all respondents said they would work from home and live outside major cities. 

  

• Woman Assaulted At BLM Protest For Holding "Police Lives Matter" Sign
  Woman Assaulted At BLM Protest For Holding “Police Lives Matter” Sign
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 21:00

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  A woman was repeatedly assaulted at a BLM protest in Austin, Texas for the sin of holding a sign that said “Police Lives Matter”.

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  “I’ve felt the need to stand up for the police lives, so I went and demonstrated with a “Police Lives Matter” sign and as per usual, the violent left found their way over,” tweeted Savanah Hernandez.

  “Luckily, many of the people attending the nearby BLM rally protected me and my first amendment. Thank you.”

  The clips shows Hernandez being confronted by a mask-wearing woman who says, “This isn’t the fucking place for that, get the fuck out of here.”

  I’ve felt the need to stand up for the police lives, so I went and demonstrated with a “Police Lives Matter” sign and as per usual, the violent left found their way over.

  Luckily, many of the people attending the nearby BLM rally protected me and my first amendment. Thank you. pic.twitter.com/JaF31OypYr

  — Savanah Hernandez (@sav_says_) June 27, 2020

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  “You look like a fucking idiot, you stupid bitch,” she adds before assaulting the cameraman.

  Hernandez calmly explains that she is exercising her first amendment rights before the leftist states, “Fuck police lives.”

  A black woman who tried to de-escalate the situation admitted the optics were bad when she stated, “We can’t advocate for police and be attacking people.”

  The woman who confronted Hernandez subsequently tries to grab her sign before assaulting her. Another clip from later on shows the woman trying to grab Hernandez by the hair.

  *  *  *

  My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  

• Gab CEO Warns VIsa Is Helping To Bring China's "Social Credit Score" To America
  Gab CEO Warns VIsa Is Helping To Bring China’s “Social Credit Score” To America
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 20:30

  A little over a week after getting blacklisted by Visa simply for being associated with Gab, a social media alternative that’s committed to the principles of free speech, Andrew Torba, Gab’s CEO, has just spoken out for the first time via a blog post detailing his experiences. His account is almost shocking in that, as Torba argues, it shows that US corporations like Visa have started to create their own version of China’s “social credit score” metric in the US.

  If you’re deemed “politically incorrect”, you will be silenced, fired and harassed by major corporations, journalists and “activists” who claim to be committed to social justice and equality. As Torba explains, because he refuses to censor hate speech on his platform in keeping with his commitment to making Gab a censorship-free platform, Visa has targeted him, and accused him of “breaking the law” – even though “hate speech” is protected under the First Amendment.

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  Visa has effectively cut Torba off from the dollar-based financial system. His easiest means of transacting digitally, at this point, probably involves crypto.

  This level of prosecution should make Christians and conservatives nervous, as they have seen these tactics from the left before. And the results last time around…well…they weren’t pretty…no matter what American millennials might believe.

  * * *

  As many of you already know we learned last week that Visa blacklisted Gab and we are now unable to process credit and debit card transactions. We learned more information this week and I think it’s important that I share it as a warning for others.
  It’s not just Gab that is blacklisted. It’s also my family.

  In China there is something called the Social Credit System, which was developed by the Communist Chinese Party as a “national reputation system.” This system tracks the “trustworthiness” of individuals, businesses, and organizations. “Trustworthiness” here means total and complete submission to the Chinese Communist Party. If the Communist Party deems you to be untrustworthy, you are denied access to plane tickets, train tickets, opening and operating businesses, and more.

  As of June 2019, according to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, 26.82 million air tickets as well as 5.96 million high-speed rail tickets have been denied to people who were deemed “untrustworthy (失信)” (on a blacklist), and 4.37 million “untrustworthy” people have chosen to fulfill their duties required by the law.

  To most Americans this sounds horrifying, and it is. I now know from first-hand experience because this social credit system exists in the United States. While it may not be sanctioned by the United States government, it most certainly has been deployed by US corporations who today have in many ways more power, data, and control over our lives than our government does. Many of these corporations also happen to be endorsing and raising money for communist organizations, revolutionaries, and the domestic terrorists burning down our cities.

  We were told this week that not only is Gab blacklisted by Visa as a business, but my personal name, phone number, address, and more are all also blacklisted by Visa. If I wanted to leave Gab tomorrow (something that isn’t going to happen) and start a lemonade stand I wouldn’t be able to obtain merchant processing for it. Simply because my name is Andrew Torba. If my wife wants to start a business she won’t be able to obtain merchant processing because she lives at the same address as me and would be flagged by Visa.

  This is obviously very concerning. We have done nothing wrong. Gab is and always has been a legally operated business. We sell hats, shirts, and a software subscription service that unlocks new features on Gab. My personal credit score is in the 800’s. I pay my bills. I have a wife and daughter to provide for, yet we are all being punished and defamed because someone at Visa has it out for me.

  We were told that Visa has someone camping on our website watching our payment processing. As soon as we get a new processor up they find out who it is on their end and contact them. They tell the processor that Gab is flagged for “illegal activity” and if they do not stop processing payments for us they will be heavily fined.

  When the processor inquires about this alleged “illegal activity,” Visa tells them that Gab has been flagged for “hate speech.” “Hate speech,” is of course not illegal in the United States of America and is protected by the First Amendment. As I have written, it’s not real and I refuse to acknowledge it as term. Visa doesn’t agree with me.

  The reason I share all of this is that I hope it serves as a wakeup call and as a warning. If they can do this to me, they can do it to you and they likely will.

  Christians need to be especially concerned and aware of this. The Communist revolutionaries taking over the United States are coming for us all. It’s only a matter of time before the Bible is labeled as “hate speech” and churches start to experience what I am going through right now.

  And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. Revelation 13:17

  * * *

  Andrew Torba

  CEO, Gab.com

  June 26th, 2020

  * * *

  Source: Gab

  

• US Confirms 40k COVID-19 Cases For 2nd Day In A Row As Pence Cancels Campaign Stops: Live Updates
  US Confirms 40k COVID-19 Cases For 2nd Day In A Row As Pence Cancels Campaign Stops: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 20:20

  Summary:

  • US set for another day of 40k+ cases
  • Texas reports latest numbers
  • Pence cancels campaign events
  • NY reports another 700+ cases
  • WSJ reports that more GOP governors, Congressman support increased testing and mask-wearing
  • Cali reports 3% jump
  • Nevada reports record jump
  • UK reports 100 new deaths
  • Italy sees numbers continue to improve
  • Egypt continues with reopening
  • 16 NBA players test positive
  • Hospitalization capacity
  • Florida, Arizona see record jumps
  • Ariz intensive care occupancy ticks lower
  • Australia reports largest jump in new cases since April
  • Tokyo reports another increase in cases
  • Florida sees 2nd straight record jump
  • US reports 3rd straight record increase (45,942 cases)
  • Miami mayor closes beaches
  • Indonesia reports another record jump

  * * *

  Update (1800ET): Saturday was another day of record-breaking coronavirus numbers across the US as four states set new records for daily case totals, while Arizona set a new record high for hospitalizations, as the state’s hospital system is starting to look dangerously stretched.

  Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Nevada hit new highs in daily cases reported, while Arizona set a record on current hospitalizations. As of Saturday afternoon, more than 42,000 new cases have been reported across the US, leaving the country on track for the second straight day of 40k+ cases (some totals put the number above 40k for Thursday and Wednesday as well, which would make Saturday day No. 4 above the important psychological threshold).

  Deaths, meanwhile, remained mostly subdued. And in further good news, it seems the record streak has come to an end, as Jim Bianco notes, the total numbers for Sat vs Friday are slightly lower.

  Saturday’s cases back off slightly which probably has to do with some labs being closed. Expect the same type of dip into Monday.

  165,611 in the last four days. For comparison, on March 31 the total level of cases to date was 168,000. pic.twitter.com/1hbs2xW8v9

  — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) June 27, 2020

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  As we noted earlier, Texas Gov Greg Abbott’s admission that he regrets reopening bars as early as he did has led a flurry of other Republicans (including even former VP Dick Cheney) to caution on the importance of improved testing access and social distancing and mask requirements.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  The biggest news of the day is definitely VP Pence’s plan to cancel campaign stops set for next week. According to the Washington Post, inside contacts within the campaign couldn’t (or wouldn’t) tell the paper when campaign stops would resume. In addition to postponing the rallies, the campaign is also rescheduling several more intimate events featuring the VP. Though, one notable late-breaking developing is the fact that one Oklahoma journalist who covered Trump’s rally in Tulsa last week has apparently tested positive for COVID-19.

  * * *

  Update (1600ET): In what looks like good news, Texas has seen the number of new cases slow.

  • TEXAS VIRUS CASES RISE 4.2%, IN LINE WITH 7-DAY AVERAGE
  • TEXAS VIRUS DEATHS CLIMB BY 42 TO 2,366
  • TEXAS VIRUS CASES RISE 5,747 TO 143,371

  * * *

  Update (1515ET): In the latest indication that President Trump and the rest of the GOP are coming around to supporting mandatory mask wearing and other measures to slow the spread of the virus, the White House just announced that it will cancel VP Pence’s campaign trips to Florida and Arizona “out of an abundance of caution.” Pence faced a fusillade of questions during the WH COVID-19 task force’s first press briefing in two months yesterday about the campaign events, and whether the administration was encouraging Americans to disregard social distancing measures by refusing to lead by example.

  The decision to cancel the events comes after both states reported record numbers earlier today (see more on that below).

  Pence argued the Trump Campaign was simply giving Americans “the option” of “participating in their civic duty” (though typically that’s applied to voting, not attending campaign events). But the latest round of polls has clearly gotten to the president, who is perhaps finally realizing that his antagonistic, divisive rhetoric and sometimes-petulant of insufficiently serious approach (like when he joked about slowing down testing) might actually cost him the election. Mark Cuban even posited that Trump’s recent behavior was intentional, arguing that Trump secretly doesn’t want to win a second term.

  “The media has tried to scare the American people every step of the way, and these grim predictions of a second wave are no different.”

  –@VP on June 16 https://t.co/1q1bomof4V

  — Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) June 27, 2020

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  Florida, Texas, California and Arizona have been the biggest contributors to the surge in US cases.

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  Source: WSJ, JHU

  Shortly before the news hit, a pair of WSJ political reporters published a story examining how many GOP governors and members of Congress are throwing their support behind rapidly increasing testing capacity and mask usage as the US is presently on track to report a fourth consecutive record batch of daily infection numbers, as the US has gone from reporting 20k to 40k cases per day in a matter of weeks.

  To be sure, while the mainstream press would have readers believe that the fault for this increase lies solely with the president, many areas where BLM protests were the most intense (like Philadelphia and San Francisco) are seeing an alarming jump in new cases on par with the hard-hit “red states”.

  NY on Saturday reported another 700 or so cases, less than yesterday but the data shared by Cuomo shows that the number of cases has stopped falling and has begun to tick higher, even as deaths continue to decline.

  Today’s update on the numbers:

  73,262 tests were performed yesterday. 703 tests came back positive (0.96% of total).

  Total hospitalizations fell to 908.

  Sadly, there were 13 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/zo5plv0dKy

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) June 27, 2020

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  Meanwhile, the US is creeping closer and closer to 2.5 million case mark.

  * * *

  Update (1334ET): Though it’s not a record jump, California has reported another day over day increase.

  • CALIFORNIA COVID-19 CASES RISE 3% VS 2.8% 7-DAY AVERAGE

  * * *

  Update (1315ET): States from New Jersey to Nevada have just reported their latest coronavirus numbers.

  One day after imposing a statewide mandatory mask mandate…

  Today is the first day of the statewide face covering mandate. I encourage all businesses to post signage reminding Nevadans and visitors of these new rules to help us all stay safe and healthy. Posters are available online at https://t.co/7wrtjyVq4G #MaskUpNV pic.twitter.com/JBE870kJmn

  — Governor Sisolak (@GovSisolak) June 26, 2020

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  …Nevada has reported a record jump in new coronavirus cases that is more than double the last daily figures.

  New Jersey, meanwhile, reported 347 new cases, lower than yesterday’s number, however…

  NEW: NJ has 347 new positive cases of #COVID19, pushing our cumulative total to 170,873.

  Sadly, we must report an additional 36 deaths among COVID-19 confirmed-positive residents, pushing our total to 13,094 lives lost.

  For more data, visit https://t.co/JW1q8awGh7. pic.twitter.com/AAUa4As0Wn

  — Governor Phil Murphy (@GovMurphy) June 27, 2020

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  …the number of new cases has continued to creep higher as Gov Murphy has warned about the state’s “R” rate, which measures the number of people infected on average by each carrier, a representation of how quickly the virus is spreading. “R” rates above 1 means the virus is spreading; below 1 means the outbreak is waning.

  Meanwhile, Pakistan reported 3,138 new cases of coronavirus and 74 new deaths as ten members of the national cricket team were confirmed to be infected. Pakistan now has a total of 198,883 cases and 4,035 deaths. Indonesia reported 1,385 new cases of coronavirus, bringing its total to 52,812 cases in total, in what was Indonesia’s latest record jump.

  Back in the states, some are already pushing New York to delay the return of “indoor” restaurant service.

  Texas & Florida–> closing bars again to slow huge surge in the virus

  New York City–> set to open bars & restaurants for *indoor* service July 6

  Let’s not wait until NYC has a rebound to figure this out. Indoor gatherings are riskier. Let’s stick with outdoor service for now.

  — Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) June 27, 2020

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  Meanwhile, though numbers in Europe have ticked higher, Italy is still seeing numbers shrink.

  JUST IN: Italy reports 175 new cases of coronavirus and 8 new deaths.

  Total of 240,136 cases and 34,716 deaths.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) June 27, 2020

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  NEW: Italy reports less than 10 new deaths from coronavirus for first time in 4 months.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) June 27, 2020

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  ITALY: Number of coronavirus patients in intensive care has dropped below 100.

  — Norbert Elekes (@NorbertElekes) June 27, 2020

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  Egypt, meanwhile, has started reopening cafes, clubs, gyms and theaters along with lifting and easing other lockdown-related measures, after more than three months of closure, even as the number of infections continues to climb.

  In sports news, as the MLB prepares to kick off a shortened season, 16 NBA players in the US have tested positive for the new coronavirus in the first wave of mandatory tests as the league restart approaches.

  As of 1pmET, more than 9.7 million people around the world have tested positive for COVID-19, while roughly 4.9 million have recovered, and 493,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. At this rate, the world should surpass half a million infections and 10 million cases by the middle of next week.

  Peru, one of South America’s worst-hit countries, will lift coronavirus lockdown measures in a large swath of the country, including the capital, Lima, beginning next month. 

  The UK death toll increased by just 100 per data released Saturday, bringing its total to 43,514, as one of Europe’s deadliest outbreaks continues to slow.

  As Germany takes the reins of the EU presidency, Chancellor Angela Merkel cautioned that the coronavirus pandemic is far from over, as more regional clusters stir up fears of a second wave. Merkel said in her weekly video podcast that getting Europe’s economy back on track is her No. 1 goal as Germany takes over the rotating European Union. She added that all Europeans share “joint responsibility” to wear masks etc.

  * * *

  Update (1205ET): As we’ve noted, deaths across even the most hard-hit cases like Florida and Texas have continued to decline amid the latest surge in infections, as officials see the median age of those infected drop by a decade or more.

  But as a team of JPM analysts noted in a note to clients, hospital capacity across the US isn’t actually as stretched as it was during the early weeks of the outbreak – before it hit its “peak” in NYC and the surrounding area – as hospital managers in Houston have assured the public that they have plenty of overflow capacity to bring online.

  To be sure, left wing conspiracy theorists like Rachel Maddow have reported that people are dying in the halls of Arizona’s hospitals, a laughable farce, to be sure. One official from Arizona Children’s Hospital claimed that the state’s health-care system could be overwhelmed by the beginning of July (ie next week).

  Rachel Maddow: ‘The federal government is just abandoning ship’ on stopping the coronavirus

  Hospitals in Arizona have patients in hallways because they are maxed!

  The Feds are using Covid19 to exterminate Americans!#wtp2020 https://t.co/AP38VHzKeJ

  — DeeJay 🏳️‍🌈 (@barhacuda) June 25, 2020

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  As the data, packaged here by JPM analysts, clearly shows, no state is seeing capacity stretched to extremes – at least not yet.

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  * * *

  Update (1145ET): Arizona just reported its daily figures for Saturday (remember, these data are reported with a 24-hour delay). After a brief respite from record numbers, the state reported a record jump of 3,591 cases, which is bang-on tied with the last record number from June 23, though it’s slightly lower in percentage-point terms.

  • ARIZONA DAILY VIRUS CASES JUMP 5.4%, BY A RECORD 3,591
  • ARIZONA CORONAVIRUS CASES RISE BY 3,591 ON SATURDAY, TIED WITH JUNE 23 FOR BIGGEST DAILY INCREASE SINCE PANDEMIC STARTED – STATE HEALTH DEPT

  The most recent data from the Arizona Department of Health Services showed 87% of beds in intensive care units are occupied, down from an all-time high of 88% from Wednesday and Thursday.

  The number of new infections have continued to climb since Trump’s rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, though numbers were trending higher before that. New cases are climbing in 33 states, but 16, including Arizona, have seen consistent and troubling growth beyond what increases in testing would lead one to expect. The State’s governor has pleaded with Arizonans to stay home and wear masks,

  * * *

  As we noted last night, the US recorded a third record jump in new COVID-19 cases, with 45,942 cases reported, helped along by a staggering ~9k print out of Florida and thousands of new cases in California, Texas and Arizona. Florida’s latest numbers have been so sever, that they finally pushed Gov Ron DeSantis to shut down bars in the state, following the lead of Texas Gov Greg Abbott. Following his decision to roll back some of the lockdown easing, Abbott said last night that if he could have done one thing differently, he wouldn’t have reopened the bars so quickly.

  Nationally, more than 44k new cases were reported today. That’s the third straight record day. pic.twitter.com/ahY6WvRLC6

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 26, 2020

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  “f I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars…” Abbott said during an interview with the local Texas press Friday evening. He added that the bar setting “in reality, just doesn’t work with a pandemic…”

  Dr. Fauci joined the chorus of experts warning that it’s only a matter of time before deaths start increase in line with the new case totals. But on Friday, the 7-day national average for daily deaths reported continued to decline day over day.

  States reported 619 deaths.

  The 7-day average fell to 556. pic.twitter.com/FoymaF05NK

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 26, 2020

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  DeSantis, on the other hand, drew the ire of Bloomberg and the increasingly-critical mainstream press after he snapped at a reporter. When asked if he would have done anything differently, he defiantly responded “like what?” That…probably wasn’t the best reaction from an optics standpoint, especially now that his state has kicked off the weekend with another record jump in new cases, suggesting that the US might be on track for a fourth-straight record jump as the outbreak in 16 states mostly along the American sun belt (encompassing most of the south and west) worsens.

  Florida reported 9,585 new coronavirus cases, another 7.8% increase (in line with the percentage increase seen in the last few days). That’s compared with 8,942 cases reported yesterday. It was the second record jump in a row for the state. In just over a week, the state has reported ~40,000 new cases, or roughly 1/3rd of the statewide total since the pandemic began.

  Florida’s new state totals include:

  • 132,545 cases
  • 14,136 Floridians hospitalized
  • 3,390 deaths of Florida residents

  Testing continued to climb across the US, even as the number of new confirmed cases far outpaced the increase in testing, as even VP Mike Pence acknowledged last night.

  The situation is getting worse in Florida, if that’s even possible. More than 9,500 new cases reported today. WOW. pic.twitter.com/z70cGDUeNw

  — Charles Ornstein (@charlesornstein) June 27, 2020

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  The percentage of positive tests, a new critical metric that is being closely followed by investors and epidemiologists alike, has continued to climb in many of the hardest-hit states.

  This chart looks at per-capita testing rates and the percent positive. Arizona is all by itself, but South Carolina and Florida are moving rightward. pic.twitter.com/H1Yl7VxzIA

  — The COVID Tracking Project (@COVID19Tracking) June 26, 2020

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  South Florida, particularly Miami-Dade County, remains the worst-hit part of the state, reporting roughly a quarter of the statewide total.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Source: FLA Dept of Health

  Hours after Gov DeSantis ordered bars closed, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez announced late Friday that he would shut the city’s most popular beaches for the Independence Day holiday weekend, probably the most aggressive step, economically speaking, as the weekend is typically a busy one during an otherwise slow summer season.

  Gimenez said in a statement that the five-days suspension starting July 3 would be extended “if conditions do not improve.”

  After consulting with our County’s public health experts, I will be signing an emergency order on Saturday to close all beaches in Miami-Dade County starting Friday, July 3, and ending Tuesday, July 7. More info: https://t.co/oSgkrB8CrS pic.twitter.com/CydnVmljz5

  — Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez (@MayorGimenez) June 27, 2020

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  Internationally, Brazil and Latin American continue to contribute more to the global total as the great rebound continues. Even Europe saw cases rise for the second straight week as easing lockdowns have led some local officials to reinstate strict social distancing rules and even lockdowns. Though, per capita, Arizona alone is still outpacing every European country, including Italy, Spain and the UK.

  Elsewhere, Tokyo reported 57 new cases on Saturday, the most since Japanese PM Shinzo Abe finally lifted the state of emergency order from the last few prefectures, including Tokyo. The capital city has been by far the biggest hot spot in the country.

  Australia reported 47 new cases, its highest daily jump since April 17. New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, is requiring all returning travelers to get tested for the virus. The region reported 6 new cases on Saturday, while the rest were tied to an outbreak in Victoria State.

  

• NYU Prof: "Hundreds, If Not Thousands" Of Universities Will Soon Be "Walking-Dead"
  NYU Prof: “Hundreds, If Not Thousands” Of Universities Will Soon Be “Walking-Dead”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 20:00

  Authored by Maria Copeland via CampusReform.org,

  As colleges attempt to recover from the pandemic and prepare for future semesters, a New York University professor estimates that the next 5-10 years will see one to two thousand schools going out of business.

  Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at the New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business told Hari Sreenivasan on PBS’ “Amanpour and Co.” that many colleges are likely to suffer to the point of eventual extinction as a result of the coronavirus.

  He sets up a selection of tier-two universities as those most likely not to walk away from the shutdown unscathed. During the pandemic, wealthy companies have not struggled to survive. Similarly, he says, “there is no luxury brand like higher education,” and the top names will emerge from coronavirus without difficulty. 

  “Regardless of enrollments in the fall, with endowments of $4 billion or more, Brown and NYU will be fine,” Galloway wrote in a blog post.

  “However, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of universities with a sodium pentathol cocktail of big tuition and small endowments that will begin their death march this fall.” 

  “You’re gonna see an incredible destruction among companies that have the following factors: a tier-two brand; expensive tuition, and low endowments,” he said on “Amanpour and Co.,” because “there’s going to be demand destruction because more people are gonna take gap years, and you’re going to see increased pressure to lower costs.”

  Approximating that a thousand to two thousand of the country’s 4,500 universities could go out of business in the next 5-10 years, Galloway concludes, “what department stores were to retail, tier-two higher tuition universities are about to become to education and that is they are soon going to become the walking dead.”

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Another critical issue underlying the financial difficulties families and universities both face is the possibility that the quality of higher education has decreased. 

  Galloway argues that an education in the U.S. is observably unsatisfactory for the amount that it costs, given that if you “walk into a class, it doesn’t look, smell or feel much different than it did 40 years ago, except tuition’s up 1,400 percent,” he said during an interview with Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

  And the pandemic, according to Galloway, has served to expose the quality of higher education. 

  “Students I think across America along with their families listening in on these Zoom classes are all beginning to wonder what kind of value, or lack thereof, they’re getting for their tuition dollars,” he said. 

  Here’s what Professor Galloway expects to happen:

  In the next six weeks, after receiving deposits/tuition, more universities will begin announcing they are moving to all online courses for Fall. The scenario planning via Zoom among administrators rivals D-Day. But likely all scenarios will lead to one realization: the protocols mandated by the surge in US infections will diminish the in-class experience to the point where the delta between in-person and Zoom will be less than the delta between the risks of each approach.

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  Parents and students may still decide to send their kids back to campus, and make their own decisions concerning the risks they can tolerate with a hybrid experience — online learning while living on or near campus. They should/will enjoy the lawns at UVA and Royce Quad with friends — marked for distancing. But in-person classes should not take place.

  Universities will face a financial crisis as parents and students recalibrate the value of the fall semester (spoiler alert: it’s a terrible deal). In addition, our cash cows (international students) may decide xenophobia, Covid-19, and H1-B visa limits aren’t worth $79,000 (estimated one-year cost of attending NYU). This has been a long time coming and, similar to many industries, we will be forced to make hard decisions. Most universities will survive, many will not. This reckoning is overdue and a reflection of how drunk universities have become on exclusivity and the Rolex-ification of campuses, forgetting we’re public servants not luxury brands.

  The outspoken professors ends with another uncomfortable truth: Universities that, after siphoning $1.5 trillion in credit from young people, cannot endure a semester on reduced budgets do not deserve to survive.

  

• "Eat The Rich!": BLM Invades Beverly Hills – Then The Cops Showed Up
  “Eat The Rich!”: BLM Invades Beverly Hills – Then The Cops Showed Up
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 19:03

  Black Lives Matter protesters marched through the streets of California’s upscale Beverly Hills Friday night chanting “Eat the rich!” and “Abolish capitalism now!” – only to be confronted by the police, as reported by the Daily Wire.

  Black Lives Matter mob shouts “eat the rich” as they march down a residential area in Beverly Hills. They’re coming for your homes.pic.twitter.com/gs5Hszjb7m

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

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  According to the Beverly Hills PD, several arrests were made.

  The unlawful assembly in the area of Rexford Dr & Carmelita Ave has ended with arrests being made. Protesters have now left the City.

  — Beverly Hills Police (@BeverlyHillsPD) June 27, 2020

  “The Black Lives Matter mob shut down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city center,” wrote Human Events managing editor Ian Miles Cheong – who posted several clips of the activity on Twitter.

  The Black Lives Matter mob shut down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city center. They don’t want you to do business. pic.twitter.com/3C2kt7cSZI

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

  The Black Lives Matter mob in Los Angeles seized a privately owned American flag in a residential suburb, shredding it and pulling it down. pic.twitter.com/gCffXqZuwZ

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

  Then the police showed up…

  The police showed up in full force to arrest members of the Black Lives Matter mob making a nuisance of themselves across residential Los Angeles streets. One pretended to be injured by the police and forced them to drag him. pic.twitter.com/9hBjv4og8M

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) June 27, 2020

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  Several weeks ago, Beverly Hills officials issued an order limiting gatherings to 10 people or less “between the hours of 9 p.m. and 8 a.m.,” defining an assembly as “any gathering or group of 10 or more people on a public street, sidewalk or other public space if those 10 people have a common purpose of goal.”

  Of course, none of that’s being enforced until BLM sets foot in posh Beverly Hills.

  

• Princeton Dumps Woodrow Wilson's Name Due To "Racist Thinking"
  Princeton Dumps Woodrow Wilson’s Name Due To “Racist Thinking”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 19:00

  By Daniel Payne of Just The News

  Princeton University’s Board of Trustees announced Saturday that it has voted to strip the Ivy League university’s public policy school of its moniker honoring Woodrow Wilson, claiming the former Democratic president’s racist ideology made him ill-suited as a namesake for the institution.  Wilson’s “racist thinking and policies make him an inappropriate namesake for a school whose scholars, students, and alumni must be firmly committed to combating the scourge of racism in all its forms,” the trustees said in a statement on Friday.

  Student protests at Princeton in November 2015 called attention to Wilson’s racism, and we responded by forming an ad hoc committee, chaired by Brent Henry ’69, to study Wilson’s legacy at Princeton. The committee recommended valuable reforms to increase Princeton’s inclusivity and recount the University’s history more completely, but it left the names of the School and College intact. Student and alumni interest in those names has persisted, and we revisited them this month as the American nation struggled profoundly with the terrible injustice of racism.

  – Excerpted from a statement by the Princeton Board of Trustees

  Deleting Wilson’s name at Princeton may be the most high-profile “cancel culture” act to date. The policy school will now be known as “The Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.”

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  Wilson, a progressive Democrat known for his contempt of the U.S. Constitution due to the limits it imposed on the federal government, was a proponent of segregation and allowed much of the federal government’s workings to become racially segregated during his two terms between 1913-1921. Under his executive tenure, the first movie ever screened at the White House was the pro-Ku Klux Klan film “The Birth of a Nation.” 

  Wilson was president of Princeton from 1902 to 1910 and, as a Democrat, served as governor of New Jersey before winning the 1912 presidential election. Wilson, born in Virginia in 1856, spent his early years in the South, including in Georgia and South Carolina.

  Though the board stripped Wilson’s name from the highly regarded policy school, the trustees nevertheless argued that “Princeton has a continuing responsibility to remember [Wilson’s] achievements even as we honestly and publicly contend with his failures.”

  The trustees also said they would rename the school’s residential Wilson College to “First College” ahead of that residence’s already-scheduled closure in two years. 

  A university honor bearing the president’s name – the Woodrow Wilson Award – will remain unchanged, the trustees added, due to that award’s being associated with a gift to the university.

  “The award explicitly honors specific and positive aspects of Wilson’s career,” the trustees wrote, “and it, unlike the School or the College, does not require students to identify with the Wilson name in connection with their academic or residential programs.”

  * * *

  And now that cancel culture has finally sprung within the hallowed halls of America’s top liberal universities, one can argue – if one wasn’t a hypocrite of course – that the time has come to tear down Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, Yale, Georgetown and pretty much most legacy institutions. The reason: as the following link details, history shows that slavery has helped build most US colleges and universities…

  Time to tear down Harvard, Columbia, Princeton and Yale.

  History shows slavery helped build many U.S. colleges and universitieshttps://t.co/TwCjS2u7p2

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 21, 2020

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  … and none more so than that Ivy Leage pinnacle, Harvard – the first institution of higher learning in America, founded in 1636 – and whose first 150 years of history are defined by slavery and the slave economy, or as APM Reports writes, “Slaves made beds and meals for Harvard presidents.”

  “Harvard was the first institution of higher learning in America, founded in 1636. Slavery and the slave economy thread through the first 150 years of its history. Slaves made beds and meals for Harvard presidents”https://t.co/TwCjS2u7p2

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 21, 2020

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• Texas Realtors Stop Using 'Master Bedroom' Over Slavery Connotations
  Texas Realtors Stop Using ‘Master Bedroom’ Over Slavery Connotations
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 18:30

  White Americans trying to outcompete each other in the wokelympics have found a new word to blacklist eliminate from the public lexicon over its ties to slavery.

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  According to TMZ, the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) – which has one black guy in a leadership position – “is no longer using the word “master” to hype bedrooms and bathrooms on its Multiple Listing Service.”

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  Going forward, they will be referred to as “primary” bedrooms and bathrooms, avoiding insensitive and awkward encounters which HAR claims has been “raised and considered for several years,” according to the report. 

  Houston area realtors are still free to use the ‘offending’ term, however, as HAR’s newfound wokeness is just a suggestion.

  Given the woke mob’s ability to cancel ‘offensive’ content, concepts and now words, we have a few questions for clarification:

  Will Gordon Ramsay change MasterChef to PrimaryChef?

  Will the computer industry dispense with ‘master / slave’ to designate relationships between hard drives?

  Will the PGA now hold the Primarys tournament?

  Will Warner Brothers revise Mad Max so that “Primary Blaster” runs Bartertown?

  Will The Last Dragon receive the same revisionism?

  Will Metallica re-release Primary of Puppets?

  What about:

  Masters degrees?

  Master cylinders?

  Master recordings?

  Enjoy the old language while you still can.

  

• Fundamentals & Reality Are Making Their Presence Felt
  Fundamentals & Reality Are Making Their Presence Felt
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 18:00

  Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

  An eventful week in markets and the economy as the month and quarter are coming to a close next week.

  The broader market peaked on June 8th on the heels of unprecedented central bank intervention but has since failed to make new highs other than the Nasdaq. Any subsequent efforts by the Fed to stave off any market sell off via the announcement of individual corporate bond buying 2 weeks ago or this week’s announcement to relax the Volcker rule for banks have produced nothing but short lived bounces in markets leading to lower highs and further selling in equities.

  Fundamentals and reality are making their presence felt. The reopening of the US economy is hampered by violent spikes in coronavirus infections in some part of the US leading to delayed reopening in some cases raising questions about the veracity of any V shape recovery in the economy as lay off announcements keep mounting globally.

  The realization that jobs will not come back to anywhere near February levels may take time to sink in as does perhaps the inconvenient truth that the Fed’s intervention efforts may be hitting a point of diminishing returns.

  In this week’s episode of Straight Talk we discuss the market’s technical battle line for control, the state of the banks and their message to markets, the gnawing threats on big cap tech, specifically on Facebook as advertisers are pulling out in droves in the midst of political backlash, the going forward political risk of big cap tech having reached quasi monopoly status in their respective fields, the ongoing threat of the virus resurgence to the V shape recovery narrative, the political risks to markets due the upcoming presidential election and possible impacts of tax policy and much more:

  For reference a couple of charts relating to what we discussed in the video above:

  $SPX, following peaking June 8th when it tagged a key trend line has now reversed lower and has closed the week below its weekly 5 EMA for the first time since the March lows following the break of the rally trend earlier in the month:

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  This could be signaling a trend shift. But also note $SPX closed right at its weekly 50MA and just below its daily 200MA:

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  Note also the consecutive breakouts in volatility since the June 8th peak.

  Put in context the horrid action in the banking sector, even this week’s loosening of the Volcker rule lead the resulting bounce to be sold. Worse for banks potentially here is that the chart suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern that could signal much lower prices ahead in context of the 10 year again dropping lower as well:

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  Since the June peak, $SPX is down 7%, small caps are down over 10% and the banking index is down over 20%. These are sizable moves to the downside and tech is increasingly under threat as well and its strength came on ever weakening internals.

  I’ve outlined the reasons why the historic rally may have been still nothing but a bear market rally fueled to extremes by unprecedented liquidity injections and why the Fed looks increasingly busted in trying to defend this market without being able to prevent what the banks and bond market are already signaling: We’re staring at the prospect of a protracted downturn.

  Markets are a journey and the day to day back and forth may well distract from the bigger picture, hence it is critically important to keep a close watch on the technical charts and evolving macro data. My primary view: There are plenty opportunities to trade the long and the short side as the battle between artificial liquidity interventions and the fundamental/valuation picture rages on in the months to come. But be clear: In June the broader market made a lower high and the path to a full economic recovery does not look anything like a clear V at all while valuations remain at unprecedented levels during a recession.

  *  *  *

  I’ll be posting a separate Market Video focusing on the latest technical implications later today (For those not already signed up for these videos please see link to register). For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services.

  

• "Disturbing Parallel To HIV": COVID-19 Can Cause Depletion Of Important Immune Cells, NY Times Admits
  “Disturbing Parallel To HIV”: COVID-19 Can Cause Depletion Of Important Immune Cells, NY Times Admits
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 17:30

  Once again, it looks as though what was once being peddled as Covid-19 “conspiracy theory” on our site appears to have turned out to have been accurate news reported months before the mainstream media. Go figure.

  As far back as February 1, 2020, when the pandemic was only starting to attract attention and the China-influenced mainstream media was politically inclined to minimize the severity of the disease before pulling a sharp U-turn and now going full bore with a narrative of just how dangerous it is to reopen the economy, we published an article referencing an Arxiv pre-print which found that the Covid-19 genome contained “HIV Insertions”, stoking fears that the virus was an artificially created bioweapon.

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  While the mere suggestion that this virus was man-made – nevermind sharing discrete segments of its genetic structure with HIV – sparked outrage among the well-paid mercenary enforcers of the First Amendment known as “fact-checkers” who are employed by such biased organizations as Twitter and Facebook to stifle any line of inquiry that runs contrary to whatever dominant narrative has been blessed by the Zuckerbergs and Dorseys of the world, it was none other than the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983, that confirmed our suspicions saying that “the virus was man-made.”

  We then reported in April that Professor Luc Montagnier, the 2008 Nobel Prize winner for Medicine, claimed that SARS-CoV-2 is a manipulated virus that was accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, and added that the Wuhan laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine.

  This is the same conclusion we explored months before the mainstream media when we suggested that COVID-19 may have emerged from a lab in Wuhan instead of being man-made. For being early in what is increasingly looking like a very accurate assertion, a Buzzfeed journalist wrote a hit-piece about Zero Hedge that resulted in us being banned from Twitter.

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  But here we stand, months later. We have since been reinstated on Twitter and the journalist in question has been  fired for plagiarism after BuzzFeed‘s new editor-in-chief, Mark Schoofs, published “A Note To Our Readers” detailing eleven instances where he lifted content from other publications without attribution going back to 2013, including his hit-piece against Zero Hedge.

  Our lab origin “conspiracy theory” has gained widespread support and is the focus of several international investigations into the CCP lab. And just this week, we found out that and the HIV link that we first reported on months ago, and followed up on last month, continues to only get stronger.

  As the mainstream media desperately plays catch-up, The New York Times released a piece yesterday called “How the Coronavirus Short-Circuits the Immune System” and said that “In a disturbing parallel to H.I.V., the coronavirus can cause a depletion of important immune cells, recent studies found.”

  “Now researchers have discovered yet another unpleasant surprise. In many patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, the immune system is threatened by a depletion of certain essential cells, suggesting eerie parallels with H.I.V.,” the article says. 

  The assertions could explain why few kids get sick and why a “cocktail” of treatments may be needed to bring the coronavirus under control, similar to how H.I.V. is treated. 

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  Dr. John Wherry, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania said that research now points to “very complex immunological signatures of the virus.” The NY Times wrote: 

  In May, Dr. Wherry and his colleagues posted online a paper showing a range of immune system defects in severely ill patients, including a loss of virus-fighting T cells in parts of the body.

  In a separate study, the investigators identified three patterns of immune defects, and concluded that T cells and B cells, which help orchestrate the immune response, were inactive in roughly 30 percent of the 71 Covid-19 patients they examined. None of the papers have yet been published or peer reviewed.

  Researchers in China have reported a similar depletion of T cells in critically ill patients, Dr. Wherry noted. But the emerging data could be difficult to interpret, he said — “like a Rorschach test.”

  “It is hard to separate the effects of simply being critically ill and in an I.C.U., which can cause havoc on your immune system,” Wherry continued.

  The researchers found that the immune system could actually become impaired because it overreacts to the virus, as happens in sepsis patients. They found that in Covid-19 patients, there was a marked increase in a molecule called IP10, which sends T cells to where they are needed in the body. Patients with coronavirus, as well as SARS and MERS, see a level of IP10 molecules that go up and stay up, which can create “chaotic signaling” in the body. 

  Dr. Adrian Hayday, an immunologist at King’s College London said: “It’s like Usain Bolt hearing the starting gun and starting to run. Then someone keeps firing the starting gun over and over. What would he do? He’d stop, confused and disoriented.”

  This causes some T-cells, usually prepared to destroy the virus, to become confused and act “abberrantly”. Recovery becomes tougher for those over 40 because the thymus gland, which is responsible for creating new T-cells, becomes less efficient. In kids, the thymus glad works much better. 

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  An overreaction of the immune system, causing things like a cytokine storm, may also be able to be treated by blocking a molecule called ID6, which helps organize immune cells. 

  “There clearly are some patients where IL-6 is elevated, and so suppressing it may help. But the core goal should be to restore and resurrect the immune system, not suppress it,” Hayday said. 

  Hayday believes an antiviral treatment may make the most sense, given the newfound information: “I have not lost one ounce of my optimism. A vaccine would be great. But with the logistics of its global rollout being so challenging, it’s comforting to think we may not depend on one.”

  Recall, we had previously written that the South China Morning Post reported a study by Chinese scientists found that the novel coronavirus uses the same strategy to evade attack from the human immune system as HIV. Specifically, both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, we noted.

  The researchers warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV.

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  We wrote in May:

  And here is where things gets very messy for the frauds known as “fact-checkers” who – without any actual facts or knowledge – threw up all over our February report that the coronavirus shared genetic material with HIV: while the mainstream media did everything in its power to censor any suggestions that Covid and HIV having genetic similarities (after all who wants to be threatened by an airborne version of AIDS) now it is none other than the South China Morning Post which writes that “earlier studies found the spike protein of the new coronavirus had a structure that allowed it to enter many types of human cells and bind with them. The same structure was also found in HIV, but not in other coronaviruses found in animals such as bats and pangolins.”

  At this point, the New York Times and the SCMP appear to have pointed out all the exact same facts – that the coronavirus not only shares genetic material with HIV, but also evades and cripples the immune system in a similar way to HIV – that got the “highly respected” StatNews to accuse Zero Hedge of spreading an “infodemic.”

  As we said last month:

  “We wonder if StatNews author John Gregory will append his “analysis” now that actual “facts” have emerged showing that it’s not the infodemic we should be afraid of, but the censordemic.”

  

• Europe On Alert After Unknown Radioactivity Spike Detected Over Baltic Sea
  Europe On Alert After Unknown Radioactivity Spike Detected Over Baltic Sea
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 17:00

  Almost a year ago Russia admitted to releasing significant amounts of radiation into the air that triggered warning alerts in the region of the far north Arctic Circle port cities of Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk, after a failed weapons test involving a “small-scale nuclear reactor” that killed Russian scientists – which was believed connected to Russia’s hypersonics program. 

  We can’t help but recall that incident now with new reports of radiation sensors based in Scandinavia again picking up abnormal radioactivity levels in the air. Perhaps there’s some further failed weapons tests happening somewhere in the region?: 

  “Radiation sensors in Stockholm have detected higher-than-usual but still harmless levels of isotopes produced by nuclear fission, probably from somewhere on or near the Baltic Sea, a body running a worldwide network of the sensors said on Friday,” Reuters reports.

  22 /23 June 2020, RN #IMS station SEP63 #Sweden🇸🇪 detected 3isotopes; Cs-134, Cs-137 & Ru-103 associated w/Nuclear fission @ higher[ ] than usual levels (but not harmful for human health). The possible source region in the 72h preceding detection is shown in orange on the map. pic.twitter.com/ZeGsJa21TN

  — Lassina Zerbo (@SinaZerbo) June 26, 2020

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  The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) confirmed the higher than normal activity.

  Its ultra-sensitive networked sensors set up across Europe and the world are capable of picking up nuclear weapons testing when it occurs anywhere around the globe.

  As Reuters reports further, the Stockholm monitoring station “detected 3 isotopes; Cs-134, Cs-137 & Ru-103 associated with Nuclear fission at higher than usual levels,” according to CTBTO chief Lassina Zerbo, who made the announcement on Friday. 

  The additional particles were picked up by the sensors last Monday and Tuesday, and confirmed by the nuclear monitoring organization. Zerbo pointed out, however, that it wasn’t at levels harmful for human health.

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  “These are certainly nuclear fission products, most likely from a civil source,” the CTBTO said in a statement. “We are able to indicate the likely region of the source, but it’s outside the CTBTO’s mandate to identify the exact origin.” 

  The organization further speculated that the source could have come from anywhere spanning from western Russia to Baltic countries to parts of Scandinavia. 

  

• Is This The Next Big Short?
  Is This The Next Big Short?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 16:30

  As we reported previously, with commercial real estate failing to benefit from the rebound in overall risk over the past 3 months as a result of a tidal wave of retail bankruptcies, CMBX Series 6 – which back in March 2017 was dubbed the “Big Short 2.0” trade due to its substantial exposure to malls which were hurting long before the arrival of the pandemic…

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  … and especially the BBB- tranche has been stuck in purgatory, and after surging to 75, is back to where it was in mid-April as investors signal that the worst is yet to come for commercial real estate.

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  Of course, all of this is well-known by now, and it is safe to say that the riskier tranches of CMBX S6 are now fairly priced for even a downside scenario among retail outlets. But what about other CMBX issues, and is there another “Big Short” lurking among the various tranches, especially in the aftermath of the coronavirus shutdowns which will cripple not just retail outlets but everything from restaurants, to multi-family housing (as city renters flee for the suburbs), to offices and hotels.

  In our view, the answer to all those seeking the next Big Short is CMBX 9. This is what we wrote +:

  … with CMBX 6 now done, keep a close eye on CMBX 9. With its outlier exposure to hotels which have quickly emerged as the most impacted sector from the pandemic, this may well be the next big short.

  Fast forward a few weeks, when commercial real estate analytics specialist Trepp seems to agree with us.

  As Trepp’s Manus Clancy writes in a blog post on Friday, “the COVID-related volatility over the last three months has resulted in growing interest over CMBX as a way to take positions on US commercial real estate. This week we are back to hone in on CMBX 9.“

  Below are some of the reasons why CMBX 9 – which so far is off-limits to the Fed’s blatant bailouts of most, but not all, asset classes – may be the cleanest and safest way to bet on the devastation resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Courtesy of Trepp:

  What Makes CMBX 9 Unique?

  For one, it’s the only CMBX index backed by 2015 deals. Before the COVID-19 crisis began, the last meaningful hiccup in CMBS lending came in early 2016. In late 2015, volatility in the US equity markets picked up considerably and oil prices fell to under $30 a barrel. The sharp price decline in black gold led investors to fear a wave of forthcoming bankruptcies from energy companies.

  That fear led to a sharp repricing of credit in the leveraged loan market and that widening had a gravitational pull on CMBS, dragging spreads wider over the course of two months. That widening in CMBS led to an abrupt pause to CMBS lending leading to a standstill in issuance in Q1 2016.

  The 2015 CMBX 9 reference obligations consist of deals issued before any of that drama emerged. (The 2016 oil downturn in CMBS also led to several defaults of hotel and multifamily loans backed by “man-camps” in the shale regions of North Dakota and elsewhere.)

  Other Attributes of CMBX 9?

  It has the highest concentration of multifamily loans of any CMBX series with 14.7%. (The only other series that is close is CMBX 13 with 14.1%.)

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  CMBX 9 also has the highest concentration of hotel loans with 16.7%. (CMBX 11 is next with 13.8%.) In terms of protection premiums, CMBX 9 BBB- costs about 725 basis points to insure. That’s well inside of the 925 basis points for CMBX 8 BBB- but wider than the 675 for CMBX 10 BBB-. (Those spread levels are from IHS Markit).

  For comparison purposes, CMBX 9 BBB- ended 2019 with a spread of 310 basis points. So there has been about 400 basis points of widening since the beginning of the year.

  As of June 2020, 9.8% of the collateral behind CMBX 9 is 30 or more days delinquent. That puts the index slightly ahead of the average CMBS delinquency rate as of June.

  Another 6.6% of the loans behind CMBX 9 missed their June payment, but were not yet 30 days late – so there is room for the delinquency rate to move higher over the summer. (Those percentages include defeased loans in the denominator of the calculation.)

  The pool of defeased loans totals 4.5% by loan balance. In addition, 23% of the collateral pool is on servicer watchlist and another 5.1% of the collateral pool is with the special servicer.

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  CMBX Background

  For background, CMBX is a set of indexes administered by Markit Partners. There are 13 separate indexes – the first five were launched prior to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

  When the markets are functioning, a new series is rolled out every 18 to 24 months by Markit. Each series allows an investor to buy protection (“go short”) or sell protection (“go long”) on a bucket of 25 separate tranches. An investor can go long or short on AAA, AA, A, BBB- or BB.  To buy protection, a buyer pays a fixed premium each month – the premium level is set when the index is launched. If selling protection, the seller is committing to “insuring” the buyer of protection against any bond writedowns.

  The price of the index fluctuates up and down – up when the perceived likelihood of losses is low and down when perceived creditworthiness is low. Since the COVID-19 crisis began, prices have been trending lower. The lower down the credit stack, the bigger the price drop.

  Within a series – say, CMBX 13 –  the same 25 deals are represented across all ratings classes. (So for the CMBX 13 AAA index, it will be the AAA tranches from 25 deals that serve as “reference obligations.”  For the CMBX 13 BBB-, it will be the BBB- tranches from the same 25 deals.)  All deals that serve as reference obligations are US conduit deals.

  For historical reference, for many of the deals used for reference obligations in 2006 and 2007 saw meaningful losses, with some deals seeing losses erase even the AA classes of some deals. (The ABX indexes got most of the attention during the GFC, but those that “shorted” CMBX BBB- from some of the pre-crisis CMBX indexes made out handsomely as well.) In fact, for CMBX 5 BBB-, 22 of the 25 reference tranches suffered 100% losses.

  * * *

  Finally, for those asking, yes there is a lot of potential downside for CMBX Series 9 BBB-. In fact, if the hotel world suffers a perfect storm of pent up defaults coupled with a second wave of covid which send the hotel industry into another tailspin, the potential downside here could be even greater than for Series 6.

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• How The Bottom-Up Bailout Will Impact The Future
  How The Bottom-Up Bailout Will Impact The Future
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Sat, 06/27/2020 – 16:00

  Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

  The lockdown of the economy by government order is proving to be a blunder of epic proportions.  Coronavirus is still on the loose.  Yet, as a result of the lockdown, the economy’s been destroyed.

  Take the housing market, for instance.  According to a report from Black Knight, 4.3 million U.S. borrowers were more than 30 days late on a mortgage payment in May.  What’s more, over 8 percent of all U.S. mortgages were either past due or in foreclosure.

  The succession is real simple. 

  • First, the economy was shut down by government order.

  • Second, about 47 million people filed for unemployment claims over a 14-week period. 

  • Third, people stopped paying their mortgage.

  Here in the ‘land of fruits and nuts’ the trend is also moving in the wrong direction.  In May, 6.85 percent of California mortgages were estimated to be “non-current.”  This troubled-loan category is composed of mortgages with missed payments plus those formally in the foreclosure process.

  When the year started, only 2.1 percent of California mortgages were non-current.  Thus, in just six months, the rate of non-current mortgages has jumped 228 percent.  Nationally, 7.76 percent of mortgages are non-current.

  The housing market’s difficulties typify the consequences of an overleveraged economy.  With vast numbers of people up to their eyeballs in debt, all it took was a brief pause in cash flows and the debt structure broke down.  To add insult, this is a government sponsored problem…

  What Comes Next?

  Through the wheelings and dealings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government sponsored enterprises, lenders have an endless demand for mortgages.  Fannie and Freddie buy up the mortgages from lenders and either hold them in their portfolios or package them up into mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

  If you recall, Fannie and Freddie were given a several hundred billion dollar bailout during the 2008-09 financial crisis.  Now, just over a decade later, the fermentations of another bailout are brewing.  The CARES Act was merely the warm up.

  As noted above, mortgage payment fundamentals have rapidly turned negative.  Over the next several months the progression will advance from late and missed payments to mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

  Without question, there will be another monster bailout.  But this bailout is bigger than just Fannie and Freddie or even the big banks.  This bailout is about a futile attempt to paper over American homelessness and poverty.  But what comes next?

  Almost no one has considered the consequences of another monster bailout.  Will it be inflationary?  What will it do to the economy?  What will it do to the stock market?  How will it influence the price of gold or the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note?

  These questions are not met with obvious answers.  We’ve been contemplating them for years without coming to any satisfying conclusions.  The best we can do is draw from the past, consider what’s different about the present, and make interpolations and guesses about impacts to the future.

  Using this methodology, we offer the following ruminations…

  How the Bottom Up Bailout Will Impact the Future

  The 2008-09 mortgage bailout marked the start of a major bull market in U.S. stocks.  This was partly because the Fed pushed the federal funds rate to zero and swapped cash for the trash toxic assets of securitized mortgage debt.  This flooded the financial system with liquidity.

  The future is now approaching.  But what will the future bring?  Namely, what type of bailout will the Fed, in concert with the Treasury, deliver?  Will it be another top down bailout similar to 2008-09?  Or will it be something entirely different?

  We contend that it will be something dramatically different.  This time around it’s no longer politically expedient for only the government sponsored enterprises and the big banks to get a bailout.  The people are on to the Fed’s money games and demand a bailout too.

  By this, the bailout will be from the bottom up.  The Treasury will provide cash stimulus check payments – or directly credit bank accounts – to renters and homeowners so they can share in the spoils of a bailout.

  Fannie and Freddie already have CARES Act programs to help those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic…including a moratorium on foreclosure and eviction until at least August 21, 2020.  What you may not know is that this moratorium date has already been extended twice.  Perhaps it’ll continue to be extended until ample government stimulus checks are beings sent out to the American populace on a monthly basis.

  Our guess is that this sort of bottom up bailout will be less bullish for stocks.  Though it will have a much more dramatic effect on consumer price inflation.  In other words, the dollar will lose purchasing power against real goods and services.  And eventually it’ll buckle, along with American living standards.

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  Moreover, the fantasyland world where the government pays everyone’s rent and mortgage, along with free school, free drugs, and free food, will be less sublime than what’s advertised. 

  Countless governments have tried throughout the ages.  Without fail, these pursuits of miracles and purple fairy dust solutions always end in tears.

  

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