Today’s News 28th June 2022

• "Suitcases Full Of Drug Money": Credit Suisse Found Criminally Guilty in Money-Laundering Case Tied to Cocaine Ring
  “Suitcases Full Of Drug Money”: Credit Suisse Found Criminally Guilty in Money-Laundering Case Tied to Cocaine Ring

  Another day, another dismal development for the 2nd largest (but most damned) Swiss bank.

  On Monday, Credit Suisse Group was convicted of failing to prevent money laundering by a Bulgarian cocaine trafficker, in the first ever criminal conviction of a major Swiss bank in the country’s history. The verdict, in which a former relationship manager at the bank was also convicted on money laundering charges, was handed down by Switzerland’s top criminal court on Monday afternoon.

  The former employee, who prosecutors said regularly accepted suitcases of cash from one of the ring members that went beyond allowed limits, was given a 20-month suspended sentence. A person from another bank and two members of the crime ring were also found guilty of money-laundering charges. 

  There was a silver lining, as the penalty was purely token: Credit Suisse will be fined two million Swiss francs ($2.1 million) over “certain historical organizational inadequacies”,  or about how much the cocaine trafficker spent on hookers in one trip to Switzerland to deposit his drug money with Credit Suisse.

  Money aside, the decision is another blow to the tarnished reputation of Credit Suisse, which had argued the crimes date to an era when compliance standards were less stringent. It has been struggling with a series of scandals that have sent its shares to near-record lows, and may face a second criminal indictment in an unrelated case later this year.

  As Bloomberg notes, the case was criticized by Credit Suisse for having been brought so many years after the events in question. The bank expressed its “astonishment” in late 2020 when Swiss prosecutors publicly charged it with money laundering offenses, given the alleged crimes took place between 2004 and 2008.

  The court said Credit Suisse made it possible for the crime ring to launder money through the bank between July 2007 and December 2008 by failing to adequately monitor its accounts and make sure the business complied with anti-money-laundering rules. The crime ring allegedly recruited a Bulgarian wrestler and others in his orbit for operations transporting drugs and laundering money.

  Credit Suisse said in a pre-trial statement that it “unreservedly rejects as meritless all allegations in this legacy matter raised against it and is convinced that its former employee is innocent.” It also said previously that outside lawyers and consultants had reviewed its systems against money laundering and found its organizational setup was “correct and appropriate” in the period being probed.

  Prosecutors initially charged the bank with deficiencies between 2004 and 2008 but had to narrow the time frame because too much time had passed. Under Swiss law, local prosecutors can press criminal charges against banks if they believe those institutions didn’t do enough to screen clients and their cash for obvious ties to illicit activity. The former Credit Suisse manager, a woman who can only be named as E. under Swiss reporting restrictions, accepted deposits of used bank notes that regularly exceeded 500,000 euros ($528,650) at a time, according to the 515-page indictment.

  Cash deposits were very common given the parlous state of Bulgaria’s banks at the time, she said in testimony. Her lawyer also said she wasn’t sufficiently trained by the bank, and will appeal.

  The conviction hits Credit Suisse as it tries to turn a corner on financial losses and other scandals, including more than $5 billion in losses related to the collapse of family office Archegos Capital Management. 

  Credit Suisse said it would appeal the decision. It noted that the alleged offenses date to more than 14 years ago. It had said it was astonished to be charged when prosecutors brought the case in December 2020. The bank on Monday said it is continually testing its anti-money-laundering framework and has been strengthening it over time. 

  On Tuesday, Credit Suisse will update investors on plans to cut costs this year to help offset falling revenue in some divisions. It previously said it expects to post its third consecutive quarterly loss for the three months ending June 30.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 06/28/2022 – 02:45

• Almost All 5,000 Gang Members In Sweden Are Either 1st- Or 2nd-Generation Migrants
  Almost All 5,000 Gang Members In Sweden Are Either 1st- Or 2nd-Generation Migrants

  By Denes Albert of Remix News

  The urban crime gangs dominating Swedish cities are almost exclusively made up of immigrants, according to Amir Rostami, a leading criminologist and professor who based his findings on police data.

  

  In Sweden, the number of gang-related crimes is increasing every year, and as a result of mass and uncontrolled immigration, the authorities are losing control over more and more areas where migrant gangs are taking power.

  “It is not enough for many immigrants to come to Sweden from a less developed country and enjoy the benefits. They want excitement and want to get rich quickly,” says criminologist Rostami.

  Rostami has divided these gang members into two categories. Disorganized criminals are mostly made up of slightly younger members between 20 and 25 years old who have poorer impulse control, less education, and are primarily dealing with weapons and drugs. Then, there are the slightly more mature, rational, and better educated members who are involved in more extensive criminal networks; some of these members are even accountants, people with degrees, and former military personnel. This group is responsible for a huge share of crimes in Sweden, suspected of committing 40,000 criminal acts every year. These criminal networks not only compete with each other, but also work together.  

  Rostami sees himself as an example of someone who chose another life. He was born in Iran, came to Sweden with his family as an immigrant, and grew up in the Frölunda district of Gothenburg, which is now considered to be a “sensitive area” where large immigrant populations live. He said his upbringing was fraught with the risk factors of becoming a criminal, but instead of taking the path of crime, he chose to study, according to the Hungarian news outlet Magyar Nemzet.

  Regarding migrant gangs, the criminologist highlighted that the business is passed down within the family. He said that fathers and other relatives teach young males in the family to commit crimes. Rostami argues that it is an almost insurmountable task for society to bring these individuals into a crime-free way of life and requires far more resources than are available or can be reasonably allocated to the task.

  Police estimate that the number of people active in gang crimes in the so-called “sensitive areas” exceeds 5,000, of whom almost a 1,000 live in Gothenburg. According to Swedish police, almost all registered criminals have an immigrant background.

  It is estimated that in about 15 years, each immigrant criminal will cost taxpayers an average of 25 million króna (€2.35 million) over the migrant’s lifetime. This represents a total financial burden of SEK 125 billion króna (€11.7 billion) for society. A shortfall in taxes paid to society, to which these people would have contributed if they had chosen an honest life over crime, must also be factored in.

  According to Rostami and police records, all of the country’s convicted gang leaders are first- or second-generation migrants. Twelve of them are still serving their prison sentences, and one of them is on the run and hiding.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 06/28/2022 – 02:00

• Newspeak In The 21st Century: How To Become A Model Citizen In The New Era Of Domestic Warfare
  Newspeak In The 21st Century: How To Become A Model Citizen In The New Era Of Domestic Warfare

  Authored by Cnythia Chung via ‘Through A Glass Darkly’ Substack,

  Disagreement has become an extremely sensitive issue lately; it was once thought that debate was an essential component to a strong and healthy democracy, however, we are now told that it is extremely dangerous, in fact, it may soon be categorised as a form of domestic terrorism. [This article was originally published January 27, 2021.]

  

  As early as mid-Nov 2020, Biden was already discussing the need to pass further laws against domestic terrorism. This is interesting since under the 2001 Patriot Act (which was meant to be a temporary enforcement in reaction to 9/11, however, is still in place 19 years later), domestic terrorism is already defined as;

  “activities that (A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the U.S. or of any state; (B) appear to be intended (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the U.S.”

  So, the question begs, what else needs to be added to the Patriot Act, which was recognised at the time of its enforcement as something that should only be temporary since it was understood that it infringed upon civil liberties? Come to think of it, why is the Patriot Act still in place, which allows for the indefinite continuation of human rights violations such as warrantless wiretapping; illegal torture, kidnapping, and detention; mass surveillance; government secrecy; Real ID; no-fly list; political spying; abuse of material witness statutes; and attacks on academic freedom?

  As Glenn Greenwald wrote in his formidable paper The New Domestic War on Terror is Coming, “what needs to be criminalized that is not already a crime?”, keeping in mind that as of June 2020, the United States has the highest prisoner rate in the world, followed by El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Thailand and Palau.

  Well, the answer is apparently simple and as always for our own good. We have come to a point in time where the enemy is not some radicalized ideology, it is not some foreign despot, it is not even the threat of war (whether it be economic, cyber or nuclear), but rather it is ourselves. We, the people, are the new enemies of the State.

  You may protest “Not I! I am a model citizen! I pay my taxes on time, I am never late or call in sick for work, I make sure to be up-to-date with the newest ‘woke’ revelations and I don’t engage with anything outside of the mainstream matrix during my free-time.”

  People such as yourself think, that when the Biden Administration is calling for tougher laws against domestic terrorism, that it is obviously meant for the ‘other guy,’ those uneducated bigots who are screaming at the top of their lungs “Treason!” and inciting what we are told to be forms of ‘insurrection,’ all in the name of the archaic ideas of ‘patriotism’ and the ‘U.S. Constitution.’

  You, unlike so many others, have no problem recognising that the U.S. Constitution is actually part of the problem, that by the standards used today, the U.S. Constitution is itself responsible for ‘inciting violence’ and thus guilty of domestic terrorism, and thus needs to be revoked.

  But you see… that’s just not good enough.

  Though you are well on your way to becoming a model citizen in the 21st century, you still have a little ways to go. It is for this reason that a guide to 21st century Newspeak has been recently released to make sure that well-intentioned citizens like yourself are fully informed of what is required of you in terms of appropriate behaviour, as well as appropriate thoughts, and though this will take a little more time, appropriate instincts.

  21st Century Newspeak

  The first alteration that will need to take place is freedom of thought. It has been shown through peer-review studies that individual thoughts are susceptible to forming erroneous beliefs and can lead to dangerous behaviours such as refusal to integrate into a community standard.

  Once an individual refuses to integrate into its designated community, it is only a matter of time before this individual shows opposition and even antagonism towards said community. Thus failure to integrate is one of the first signs that an individual is on the path to becoming a domestic terrorist.

  Because the individual mind is flawed, it can no longer be trusted to be the standard of its own judgement of what is right and wrong. It is for this reason that we are introducing groupthink. This concept is not new, however, the difference is from now on the individual’s environment will only be allowed to reciprocate the values of groupthink, and all other thoughts outside of groupthink are to be banned and punishable under the new laws.

  Even if thoughts outside of groupthink appear as harmless to the collective, they are not, for any thought that is not groupthink threatens to lead to a different outcome than that intended by groupthink and thus is a threat to the security of the collective.

  In order to ensure commitment to groupthink, it will be mandatory that every individual engage in at least 2 minutes of Hate every hour throughout the day, every day. This can be achieved either by watching 2 minutes of Hate news, or by engaging in a public 2 minutes of Hate with a colleague, a friend or family member via social media.

  It is imperative that an individual watch the 15 minute morning and evening “What to Hate” news provided by the Ministry of Truth (or Minitrue), in order to be the most up-to-date with what are the ongoing and new subjects of Hate, and what were previous subjects of Hate which are no longer deemed to be subjects of Hate.

  It is most important that an individual never refer to a former subject of Hate as such. Any present subject of Hate must be seen as having always been a subject of Hate and any former subject of Hate must be seen as having never been a subject of Hate.

  This may appear as an impossible task, but we assure you it is entirely possible with the use of doublethink, which many of you have already been practising. Doublethink requires that one be both conscious and unconscious of the fact that they are telling deliberate lies while genuinely believing them; to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies. This makes up a part of our new Party slogan: FREEDOM IS SLAVERY.

  Those who excel the most in doublethink will receive the highest stations within our newly organised community, as safe-guards against the renegade, the domestic terrorist.

  Another alteration that will need to occur is how we think and refer to the past and the future. With the newly enforced groupthink, the present is what groupthink dictates it to be, which is subject to change, however, must be regarded as having always been.

  The past is what the present dictates it to be, if it were not, it could challenge the basis for the present. Thus to preserve the present, the past must serve the present, only justifying why we Hate what we presently Hate and why we Love what we presently Love and can do nothing to contradict these Party lines. There will be permitted no records of an alternative past, there will be no way to prove that the past was ever different from what the present dictates it to be, the only threat to this narrative is the record of the individual mind, and once this ceases to be there will only be the Minitrue record as the recorder of past Truth.

  In effect, the model citizen will perceive the past as dead and the future as unimaginable. The future is unimaginable because it is impossible to think of an alternative to the present, in fact, the mere act of thinking of an alternative to the present is considered a challenge to the status quo of the present, and thus is a challenge to groupthink, and thus is a form of domestic terrorism, which we will call from now on thoughtcrime.

  Thoughtcrime is essentially any thought pertaining to memory, judgement of right and wrong, thoughts of an alternative reality, and self-reflection, which are now all deemed forms of thoughtcrime. If an individual is to engage in any of these sorts of thoughts, it is only a matter of time before they will come into conflict with groupthink and the Party line, thus private thoughts are banned and punished under the new laws.

  It may seem an impossible task at first not to engage in private thoughts, but again, we assure you it is entirely possible using crimestop. Crimestop is the practice of not grasping analogies, failing to perceive logical errors, misunderstanding the simplest arguments, of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. Crimestop is essentially, protective stupidity.

  It is imperative that one practice crimestop during any interaction with another individual, however, it is also imperative that one practice crimestop within their own inner-dialogue, such that even from your own conscience you will be protected from committing a thoughtcrime.

  Newspeak will also help dissuade from thoughtcrime. Newspeak is to be the new acceptable vocabulary, anything that references words outside of the most-up-to-date edition of the Newspeak dictionary will be considered Oldspeak and something to be construed as counter to groupthink. It is understood that by reducing the vocabulary to revolve around a few words such as good; which for example can be used as plusgood, doubleplusgood, ungood etc, it will serve to narrow the range of thought an individual is capable of, and thus reduce the capability of committing a thoughtcrime. How wonderful! That in the future we will be unable to commit crime for we will be incapable of its thought! This makes up another part of our new Party slogan: IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.

  In terms of the new laws, in effect, nothing will change. Unacceptable behaviours and thoughts will not be designated as illegal per se; one reason for this is because we do not plan on having any public trials. Anyone who is in violation of conduct will simply be removed either temporarily into a “re-education facility” or will be vaporised. Any subject that has been vaporised will be removed from the collective memory records and can never be referred to as having ever existed.

  The reason why no public trials will be held from now on is because, as we have seen, dissent is infectious. Thus, holding public trials risk further encouragement towards dissent. It is for this reason that dissenters must be removed swiftly and quietly in the middle of the night. Such disappearances will occur relatively regularly and will eventually become the new normal, however, it will not be traumatic for the collective. The subject will simply cease to exist as if it were all just a dream, the structure of our daily routine unaffected.

  In order to ensure utmost compliance, the collective will be employing the use of children spies, this has already been occurring abroad, and proves to be very effective.

  Purges and vaporizations will be a necessary part of the government mechanics and will become the new normal. We have already discussed the necessity for vaporizations, as for the necessity of purges, it is because the community will be built so as to remain in stasis, however, this can only be accomplished through artificial means, for it is not natural that a thing remain the same but rather that it either improves or deteriorates.

  However, in order for the Party to maintain absolute control, there can be no change to the present except for that chosen by the Party, thus any change is a challenge to the Party. In order to facilitate an artificial environment of no change, resources must artificially be kept low, and purges need to occur so that this environment of scarcity is tightly controlled and maintained.

  In order for us to achieve this, our economy will have to go through stagnation, we will need to decrease the amount of land used for cultivation, we will no longer add capital equipment needed for industrial growth and great blocks of the population will be prevented from working and will be kept half alive by State charity. The wheels of industry cannot be allowed to turn so as to increase the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed, and in practice the only way of achieving this is by continuous warfare.

  War will continue under the Old Cold War doctrine. War will always be present, and yet will never be seen by the majority of our citizens, the reason for this being that war will not be about a real threat to security nor about real conquests but rather will be about maintaining the present status quo by exhausting the surplus of consumable goods, while also helping to preserve the special mental atmosphere that a hierarchical society needs.

  However, real war will be purely an internal affair, the war waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, with the object of the war as to keep the structure of society intact and unchanging.

  A peace that is truly permanent under this new ideology is no different than an invisible permanent war. For peace in our new era will equate to stability through no change. This makes up our first Party slogan: WAR IS PEACE.

  Conclusion

  All of these means are necessary if we are to realise that the only secure basis for oligarchy is collectivism, and that oligarchy is the only means to achieving peace, freedom and strength for the collective.

  However, we are still very far from this ideal and there is much that threatens its becoming, namely, the masses, or what we call the proles. So long as the masses believe that they are entitled to freedom of thought, our endeavours cannot succeed.

  The individual must voluntarily relinquish this. It cannot be taken from them no matter the degree of control and no matter the threat of physical harm. An individual’s mind is theirs and cannot be taken, instead, the individual must be led to believe that it is in their best interest to relinquish their mind.

  Let us do our best then to convince the individual that they are no longer fit to use their mind and let us pray that we are successful, for if we fail, our entire system of control fails with it.

  “You would not make the act of submission which is the price of sanity…Reality exists only in the human mind, nowhere else. Not in the individual mind, which can make mistakes, and in any case soon perishes: only in the mind of the Party, which is collective and immortal. Whatever the Party holds to be truth, is truth. It is impossible to see reality except by looking through the eyes of the Party.”

  – O’Brien in George Orwell’s “1984”

  *  *  *

  Cynthia Chung is the President of the Rising Tide Foundation and a writer at Strategic Culture Foundation, consider supporting her work by making a donation and subscribing to her substack page. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 23:55

• BRICS Summit Reaffirms That Russia Not As Isolated As NATO Suggests
  BRICS Summit Reaffirms That Russia Not As Isolated As NATO Suggests

  The recent BRICS summit managed to run its course this past week with very little fanfare, despite the fact that Russia is in the midst of a conflict with Ukraine that has led to a worldwide economic war. China is edging towards a potential invasion of Taiwan, and much of the planet is in the middle of a stagflationary crisis in the meantime.

  The one major takeaway from the summit was the reaffirmed stance of the BRICS that they would continue to work closely with Russia in economic terms.  

  

  Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, there has been a running narrative in the western media that sanctions and the removal of Russian access to the SWIFT network would crush the country within a few months, leaving them penniless and unable to project military power.  This has not happened.

  A picture was painted by journalists and politicians of a completely isolated Russia, destroyed by a global cancel culture campaign that would de-nation them.  In reality, Russian trade, specifically their oil trade, has actually expanded.  Both China and India have increased their purchases of Russian oil while enjoying discounted prices.  Simultaneously, Europe and the US are suffering from oil and gas inflation and the EU is cutting vital oil and gas supplies from Russia.

  Any economist with a brain and a familiarity with the BRICS could have predicted this outcome, but the bias within the mainstream media is a powerful thing.  If there were any doubts that the BRICS might distance themselves from Russia, these were put to rest in the BRICS statement on the Ukraine situation.  While supporting humanitarian efforts within Ukraine as well as diplomatic solutions, the BRICS member took swipes and NATO countries for opportunism and instigation.  In other words, there will be no breakup with Russia and BRICS markets will continue to remain open to them. 

  This means that Russia’s war with Ukraine will be sustainable for many months to come, which means that sanctions and economic warfare will continue for many months to come.  Supply chain disruptions will continue unabated as Russian commodities remain off the market for the west, and this will add to the already high inflation we are currently dealing with.

  Further economic escalation could even lead to BRICS allies engaging in trade warfare as well.  The situation has a powderkeg potential beyond anything the world has seen in decades.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 23:35

• The Depopulation Of Taiwan
  The Depopulation Of Taiwan

  Authored by Igor Chudov via Igor’s Newsletter,

  This is a continuation of my post from yesterday about a massive 13% decline in births in Germany. Such a decline is a nine-sigma event, meaning that it is so unlikely to occur by chance, that it would naturally happen as rarely as an asteroid striking the Earth.

  My article explored several more locales (UK, North Dakota, and Switzerland).

  But no other place stands out as much as Taiwan does.

  23% Drop in Birth Rate in Taiwan

  According to a Taiwan government report, the birth rate dropped by 23.24% in May 2022, compared to May 2021.

  

  I inputted historical birth rate data from Macrotrends for the years 2009-2021, and added the year 2022 as year 2021 adjusted down by 23.24%. Obviously, 2022 is not over and the number of Taiwanese babies to be born this year (or during the next 12 months) is unknown. So the chart below is an illustration of what would happen in the next 12 months if the 23.24% drop stays constant.

  

  When expressed in “sigmas”, units of standard deviation, the 23.24% drop in the birth rate in Taiwan is a 26-sigma event!

  

  This is can be described as “unimaginable” in terms of the likelihood of happening due to random chance.

  The Wolfram-Alpha illustration of likelihood by sigma only goes to ten-sigma. They thought that it would be pointless to show more sigmas. Except a 26-sigma drop in birth rate just happened in Taiwan.

  

  What Happened In Taiwan?

  Health experts are quick to blame Covid for all sorts of health problems afflicting those they advised to vaccinate. It is not the vaccine, they say, it is Covid. We tried to protect you with the vaccine, they would always insist. But you got Covid anyway, thanks to the evil antivaxxers, and your problems are due to Covid — that’s their explanation.

  We know for certain, though, that the drop in birth rate in Taiwan is NOT due to Covid. Yes, Taiwan is suffering from a terrible COVID pandemic right now (despite being 91% vaccinated), however, Covid in Taiwan only started around April 21 of 2022, and could not impact May birth rates much.

  

  To see what could cause the extreme drop in births, go back 9 months from May 2022, so to September 2021.

  Taiwan was a poster child for successful vaccination. 91% of all Taiwanese residents received a vaccine dose. By October 1, 2021, 56% of ALL people of Taiwan received Covid vaccines.

  

  They got a fairly usual mix of “safe and effective” AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer vaccines.

  

  People of Taiwan got their shots, felt assured that Covid-19 stops with every vaccinated person, and moved on with their lives.

  I doubt that the people of Taiwan noticed anything at the end of September. They knew for sure that their vaccines were safe and effective and would not affect their sperm or pregnancies. So they proceeded with family plans just as before, trying to make babies on purpose, or partying and having fun and getting pregnant accidentally, just as people do elsewhere.

  Except for 9 months later, they only gave birth to 77% of the number of babies expected.

  I hope that the people of Taiwan will start asking their authorities: what is happening to us?

  A Glimmer of Hope

  If you are like me, and you like babies, children, and grandchildren, you are probably upset by now and are wondering what will happen to all of us. Let me mention a possibility that, although unlikely in my opinion, may make this drop in birth rates temporary.

  Covid vaccines are known to “disrupt the menstrual cycle” and lower sperm counts. It is possible that some women, for a period of several months, could not conceive and become pregnant due to these disruptions. Because all Taiwanese women were vaccinated at almost the same time, those disruptions created a precipitous drop in birth rates.

  My hope, as someone who likes people, is that this will turn out to be the case. However, in my opinion, we will likely see the opposite, and reductions in birth rates will be permanent. Why? Because vaccinating young people was a crime. It was not a mistake. Let me not explain why, in this article.

  Crimes like this are NOT perpetrated to achieve a two-month drop in birth rates. Criminals of such nature who gave young people shots that they did not need, for sinister reasons, go for the jugular. Of course, not all people participating in vaccination campaigns were having such sinister intentions. But it is possible that some persons on top had criminal motives that they did not disclose.

  Again, I hope that the preceding paragraph will turn out to be unfounded. I was, and am, against any of that happening, do not support anything that is happening in Taiwan, and I am very worried.

  Time will tell.

  They Told Us it is Safe

  This fact check from Dec 5, 2020 says that the vaccine is definitely safe for pregnancy “because there is no evidence that it is unsafe”. No trial specifically for pregnancy and fertility was conducted. They just lied to us that it is safe — but had no way of knowing.

  

  Subscribe here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 23:15

• The First Cut Might Not Be The Deepest
  The First Cut Might Not Be The Deepest

  Even Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid admits that he was “slightly surprised” at the results revealed by the following chart, lifted from his latest slidebook (available to professional subs).

  

  It shows what the median US CPI was at the start of the 13 hiking cycles in the last 70 years and also where it was at the first cut after these hiking cycles. Three things stand out from this and the table you can see in the chart book.

  1. Median CPI at the first hike was ‘only’ 2.5% so the Fed has always tried to lean against inflation relatively early in the upswing. However, this time round they didn’t hike until we hit 8.5%.
  2. Median CPI at the first cut was a still high 4.4%. This supports the notion that in normal times the Fed looks ahead rather than at the current level. I was still slightly surprised it was as high as this at the first cut, which offers some support to the market view of 36bps of cuts priced between March and December 2023 even if inflation is still high.
  3. The median time from last hike to first cut was only 4 months. This short time frame also surprised me. Again this would support the market view of cuts being priced in relatively soon after this hiking cycle ends.

  

  That, as Reid says, is the history, and it made Reid appreciate that cuts could come in this cycle when inflation is still high whether this would be a policy mistake or not. Where this cycle is so different though is that the first hike occurred very, very late in the inflation cycle. Whether this changes the dynamic, time will tell.

  For what it’s worth, Reid’s base case remains that the Fed will find it very difficult to ease policy notably given that inflation is going to be harder to dislodge.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 22:55

• Abortion Clinics Start Closing After Roe v. Wade Ruling
  Abortion Clinics Start Closing After Roe v. Wade Ruling

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Abortion clinics in multiple states closed their doors on June 25 following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to pass their own laws regulating access to abortion.

  

  Around half of the states are expected to press ahead with banning abortion after the high court’s landmark ruling, according to the Guttmacher Institute, while in a handful of states with so-called trigger laws, abortion has already become illegal.

  Abortion will either soon become—or already is—unlawful in at least 13 states, according to a tally by The Epoch Times: Idaho, North Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, South Dakota, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas.

  Bans in Mississippi and North Dakota will come into force when their respective attorneys general sign off, while Wyoming’s prohibition will take effect within days.

  Tennessee will have its ban applied in 30 days, while Idaho and Texas will see bans applied 30 days after the official judgment. Abortion has become illegal in the following states: Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah.

  Clinics Close

  Alabama’s three abortion clinics stopped performing abortions as providers face prosecution under a law dating back to 1951.

  Staff at the Alabama Women’s Center for Reproductive Alternatives in Huntsville on Friday told women in the waiting room that they could not carry out any more abortions that day, though the women were given a list of out-of-state clinics still doing abortions.

  At an abortion clinic in Little Rock, Arkansas, the doors to the patient area shut as soon as the Supreme Court’s decision was formally announced.

  “No matter how hard we prepare for bad news, when it finally hits, it hits hard,” a nurse at the clinic told the BBC.

  An abortion clinic in New Orleans, Louisiana, one of three that performs the procedure in the state, was also shuttered on Friday.

  Legal Uncertainty

  Abortion clinics elsewhere—including Arizona, Texas, and West Virginia—stopped performing abortions for fear of prosecution based on laws that predate Roe v. Wade.

  In Texas, where trigger laws don’t go into effect for another month, providers suspended abortions while they seek legal advice on whether they are subject to an abortion ban based on laws passed in the 1920s.

  Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who announced the statewide closure of his agency’s office on Friday “in honor of the nearly 70 million unborn babies killed in the womb since 1973,” warned in a letter that prosecutors could immediately choose to pursue criminal prosecutions based on earlier laws that were unenforceable while Roe v. Wade stood.

  Similarly, the existence of a 19th-century abortion ban in West Virginia led a clinic there to stop performing the procedure.

  Several providers in Arizona halted abortions on Friday as they seek to determine whether pre-statehood laws may be grounds for prosecution.

  Overall, repealing Roe v. Wade means that some 36 million women of reproductive age will lose access to abortion in their states, according to research from Planned Parenthood.

  Predictably, the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has drawn mixed reactions, with demonstrators outside the Supreme Court voicing both indignation and jubilation.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 22:35

• "More Money In Your Pocket" – Newsom To Helicopter Drop $17 Billion In "Inflation Relief" Stimmy Checks 
  “More Money In Your Pocket” – Newsom To Helicopter Drop $17 Billion In “Inflation Relief” Stimmy Checks 

  As the Federal Reserve attempts to crush aggregate demand through the most aggressive monetary tightening policies in decades to cool red-hot inflation, California Governor Gavin Newsom has come up with the brilliant idea to stoke even more demand through a new round of stimulus checks. 

  “Millions of Californians will be receiving up to $1,050 as part of a NEW middle-class tax rebate. 

  “That’s more money in your pocket to help you fill your gas tank and put food on the table,” Newsom tweeted Sunday night. 

  NEW: Millions of Californians will be receiving up to $1,050 as part of a NEW middle class tax rebate.

  That’s more money in your pocket to help you fill your gas tank and put food on the table.

  — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The “inflation relief package” is a staggering $17 billion and will provide relief payments on an income-based system. Bloomberg Law provides more details on how the stimulus scheme works for households:

  Individuals making as much as $75,000 a year, or joint filers making up to $150,000, would get $350 each plus $350 for one dependent for a maximum of $1,050. Those with income up to $125,000, or $250,000 filing jointly, would get $250 each plus another $250 for one dependent for a maximum of $750. Those earning more than $250,000, or $500,000 filing jointly, would get $200 each plus $200 for one dependent for maximum of $600.

  Newsom’s move to tackle high inflation by helicopter dropping billions of dollars in stimulus checks is utter nonsense and will only work counter to what the Fed is ultimately trying to achieve: recession by aggressively hiking interest rates and winding down the balance sheet to reduce aggregate demand, so consumer prices fall.

  Newsom’s stimulus checks could temporarily fuel inflation in the state as households would instantly spend the free money on whatever they please. Solving inflation with more government will only worsen the situation. This is also something the Biden administration fails to see (read: Biden Economic Adviser Asserts That More Government Spending Will Solve Inflation Crisis). 

  How long until California Democrats beg for price controls as their policies could incite even more inflation? They can’t keep blaming ‘Putin Price Hike’ if their policies spike inflation. 

  As no lessor authority than The Wall Street Journal Editorial board succinctly concluded:

  “Too bad this bribe, er, incentive to vote Democratic won’t offset the state’s fast-rising cost of living, high taxes or the premium Californians pay for energy, water and housing, among other things, due to progressive policies.”

  The Newsom manifesto appears to be from taxpayers according to their ability to the politicians according to their need.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 22:15

• "Catastrophic Risk To Stocks And Bonds": Fed's Balance Sheet Caused Inflation, Not Low Rates
  “Catastrophic Risk To Stocks And Bonds”: Fed’s Balance Sheet Caused Inflation, Not Low Rates

  By Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  The Fed’s balance sheet as a percentage of GDP is what is driving today’s inflation — not the nominal Fed Funds rate. This will emerge as a major risk to stocks and bonds if not managed soon.

  

  The chart below shows it was not the level of interest rates that contributed to higher inflation, but the Fed maintaining the size of the balance sheet at too-high levels for too long.

  

  If economic growth slows as many expect, the influence the balance sheet has on GDP will be even greater and may pose potential catastrophic risk to stocks and bonds.

  As growth slows, so must the balance sheet to maintain the equilibrium between supply and demand. The market will decide the level of rates; the Fed can just follow along.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 21:55

• 'A Dire Warning For Democrats': Over 1 Million Voters Switch To GOP Over The Last Year
  ‘A Dire Warning For Democrats’: Over 1 Million Voters Switch To GOP Over The Last Year

  The Republican Party has been picking up support over the past year, as more than 1 million voters across 43 states switched to the GOP, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press.

  

  More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump. -AP

  Democrats, meanwhile, picked up just 630,000 new voters in the analysis of 1.7 million voters who had switched affiliations over the last 12 months. The data, which was provided by political data firm L2, used a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling.

  “While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide,” reads the report.

  The data points to a red wave brewing ahead of this fall’s midterms, according to Axios.

  The most damaging aspect of this shift to Democrats? The suburbs.

  According to the report, ‘well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back.”

  Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa. -AP

  More notables about the report via Axios:

  • The party switches were evident across the board — in red states and blue states, cities and small towns and suburban areas, AP found.
  • Of the nearly 1.7 million voters who changed parties in states with available data over the last year, some two-thirds went to the GOP.
  • “Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves,” RNC chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP.

  Between the lines: One outlier was in Virginia, where Democrats saw an uptick in registered voters.

  “It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right,” according to 37-year-old Ben Smith of Larimer County, Colorado, who says he reluctantly left the Democratic party over the last year after becoming concerned about his former party’s push for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the party’s inability to tame crime while focusing on racial justice.

  AP called it a “dire warning for Democrats” who are already dealing with the macro effects of the economy reflecting in the polls this fall during midterms.

  What’s to blame?

  According to the report, suburban parents grew ‘increasingly frustrated’ over the prolonged pandemic-related school closures, while the RNC began hosting voter registration events at gas stations in suburban locations within swing states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

  “Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves,” said RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel. “American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come” thanks to “Biden’s gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime.”

  Over the last year, nearly every state — even those without high-profile Republican primaries — moved in the same direction as voters by the thousand became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held off-year elections in 2021, saw Democrats notably trending up over the last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in last fall’s statewide elections.

  In Iowa, Democrats used to hold the advantage in party changers by a 2-to-1 margin. That’s flipped over the last year, with Republicans ahead by a similar amount. The same dramatic shift is playing out in Ohio.

  In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers during those last years of the Trump era. Now, over the last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, the Republicans went from 58 to 63 percent of party changers. -AP

  To understand more about why disaffected Democrats have left their party (aside from the overwhelming obvious), click here.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 21:35

• What To Expect In A Post-Roe World
  What To Expect In A Post-Roe World

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Below is my Hill column on what to expect in a post-Roe world. That world is already taking shape with states crafting their laws reflecting the values of their citizens from Colorado passing a law protecting the right to abortion up to the moment of birth to Louisiana banning all abortions except in limited circumstances.

  The fact is that most Americans are in the middle in this debate with more nuanced views than many political leaders.

  In the months to come, we will see if that view will prevail in the majority of states.

  

  Here is the column:

  In their historic ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, six Supreme Court justices noted that the nation was grappling with this deeply divisive issue in 1973 but that “Roe abruptly ended that political process.” The court has now declared that the future of abortion will rest with 330 million Americans rather than nine justices.

  As this matter returns to the states, it is striking to consider what has changed legally and socially in the past 50 years. The comparison may hold some interesting surprises for politicians who are now declaring, as did President Biden, that “this fall, Roe is on the ballot.”

  How little has changed

  If one looks solely at the alignment of states, surprisingly little has changed. In 1973, 30 states banned abortion at any stage of a pregnancy, with some exceptions for the health of the mother. In the Dobbs litigation of 2022, 26 states asked the court to overturn Roe and its successor, Casey.

  

  Thus, we remain deeply divided.

  Roughly 16 states are poised or expected to make abortion illegal immediately under so-called trigger laws. South Dakota, Louisiana and Kentucky have immediate prohibitions that will come into effect. Missouri claimed to be the first to declare all abortion as unlawful except for medical emergencies.

  Twenty-seven states have protections for abortion that are expected to continue. States like Colorado, New Jersey, Oregon and Delaware actually protected abortion without any limit on the stage of a pregnancy — guaranteeing the right up to just before time of birth.

  Internationally, only seven countries allow abortion after the 20th week. While many countries have decriminalized abortion, most are closer to Mississippi than Michigan in limiting abortion to the first or second trimester.

  How much has changed

  While Dobbs is a major reversal of a long-standing precedent, much has changed legally since 1973. After Roe, the Supreme Court continued to expand protections over lifestyles and intimate relations. In the parade of horribles that followed Friday’s release of the Dobbs ruling, politicians and pundits warned that the decision could undo cases protecting contraception, same-sex marriage and other rights.

  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Vice President Harris and other Democrats continue to claim that the court was taking the country back to the last century. The image of criminalized homosexuality, marriage bans and contraception limits is unnerving — but also untrue.

  In the Dobbs decision, the court’s majority expressly, repeatedly rejects the application of this holding to these other rights. Indeed, it is relatively rare to see the court go to this extent to proactively close off the use of a new case in future cases. The court said that “intimate sexual relations, contraception, and marriage” are not impacted by its holding because “abortion is fundamentally different, as both Roe and Casey acknowledged.” It noted that abortion is unique in dealing with “what those decisions called ‘fetal life’ and what the law now before us describes as an ‘unborn human being.’”

  The court repeatedly stressed that those claiming the country will be put into a legal Wayback Machine are simply using the opinion “to stoke unfounded fear that our decision will imperil those other rights.” It could not be more clear, as the court said, that “rights regarding contraception and same-sex relationships are inherently different from the right to abortion because the latter (as we have stressed) uniquely involves what Roe and Casey termed ‘potential life.’”

  The court and Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s concurrence repeat, almost mantra-like: “Nothing in this opinion should be understood to cast doubt on precedents that do not concern abortion.” Only Justice Clarence Thomas suggested that these other cases should be examined, yet even he stressed this opinion expressly rejects that application.

  Putting aside the legal changes, there are major technological changes since 1973 that will impact the post-Roe world. Roughly 60 percent of abortions today are carried out at home, not in clinics, using pills with mifepristone and misoprostol to abort a pregnancy. In 2021, the Food and Drug Administration permanently removed the in-person requirement for these prescriptions and allowed women to access the drugs via telehealth appointments and online pharmacies. It will be difficult for states to interfere with such prescriptions, particularly if the federal government protects such access.

  How we have changed

  The greatest change may be us. As this issue returns to the states for citizens to decide, we are a different country than we were in 1973. Great strides have been made in the advancement of women and a wider acceptance of people making decisions about their own lives and values. While we remain divided on abortion, the public seems far more moderate and unified than the leaders of either party.

  While some Democrats are voicing absolute views of abortion, and some Republicans are calling for total bans, most Americans hold a more nuanced view.

  In 1975, polling showed 54 percent supported abortion under some circumstances, with 21 percent saying it should be entirely legal; 22 percent said it should be illegal.

  According to recent polling by the Pew Research Center, only 8 percent of adults say abortion should be illegal without exception, while just 19 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases, without exception. Yet, polls also show that 65 percent of Americans would make most abortions illegal in the second trimester, and 80 percent would make most abortions illegal in the third trimester.

  These polls suggest that the majority of Americans will continue to live in states protecting abortion while citizens would support limits like the one in Mississippi. In Virginia, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) announced an effort to limit abortions to Mississippi’s 15-week standard but expressed a willingness to compromise on that cutoff date. In other words, there may be room for compromise as states work out their own approaches to abortion.

  Of course, none of the political or legal realities will likely penetrate the rage and rhetoric following the decision.

  Indeed, there is a tendency toward Roe revisionism. Roe supporters ignore that Roe’s constitutional rationale was always controversial, including among some liberals. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, for example, called the ruling “heavy-handed judicial activism” and felt the decision went too far. The original Roe actually died years ago when it was gutted by Casey in 1992 in its logic and tests. It was later the subject of 5-4 decisions that created a confusing muddle of what constituted “undue burdens.”

  Such revisionism is a natural part of grieving. In Shakespeare’s “Richard III,”the Queen Mother was asked how to deal with the hate of loss. She responds: “Think that thy babes were sweeter than they were; And he that slew them fouler than he is.” The same is true of Roe revisionism. Roe is now presented as inviolate and beyond question in its constitutional footing, while the opinion that slew it is presented as threatening every right secured since 1973.

  Our post-Roe world will not be written by Congress with the proposed federalization of Roe or another 50 years of conflicting court decisions. Instead, it will rest with citizens in 50 different states in coming years. The process just might surprise us.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 21:15

• Nigerian Governor Orders Mass Issuance Of Gun Permits To Counter Murderous Hordes
  Nigerian Governor Orders Mass Issuance Of Gun Permits To Counter Murderous Hordes

  Gun permits have rarely been issued in Nigeria—but that’s about to change.

  In the face of rampant violence by huge gangs of heavily armed bandits, one state governor has ordered the mass issuance of gun permits to citizens desperate for a chance to protect themselves. 

  For over a decade, Nigerians living in the country’s northwestern states have endured an endless plague of looting, kidnapping and murder at the hands of gangs and ethnic militias, which Nigerians call bandits. The violence has taken its steepest toll on the states of Zamfara and Kaduna.  

  

  The bandits operate from bases in remote forests where terrain makes offensive operations by Nigerian security forces more difficult and dangerous. In addition, “Nigeria’s security forces are stretched fighting an Islamist insurgency in the northeast of the country, leaving individual states to rely on vigilante groups to tackle the bandits,” reports Reuters.

  In addition to the money they gain through robbery and kidnapping, the bandits also control gold mines, giving them additional resources to fund weapons purchases. 

  Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton helped give Nigeria’s murderous bandits a powerful advantage over citizens and police alike. The collapse of Libya’s government after the U.S.-NATO-led regime change war boosted the flow of military weapons throughout West Africa. According to a 2016 OXFAM report, Libya’s illicit arms market has enabled online purchase of rifles, heavy machine guns, rocket-launchers, anti-tank guided missiles and grenade launchers. 

  

  With government increasingly incapable of stopping the onslaught, the bandits have been emboldened. In early January, some 200 people were killed in Zamfara as bandits used violence on civilians as a form of retaliation for government airstrikes on their base. In a two-day orgy of violence, up to nine villages were attacked, with bandits shooting villagers while looting and burning their homes. 

  Last week, bandits attacked two churches in the neighboring Kaduna state, killing eight people and kidnapping 38.

  And now, Bello Matawalle, the governor of Zamfara state, has decided his citizens deserve at least a fighting chance against formidable foes. Specifically, the governor ordered the police commissioner to issue 500 licenses in each of the state’s 19 emirate subdivisions.

  “Government is ready to facilitate people, especially our farmers, to secure basic weapons for defending themselves,” said Ibrahim Magaji Dosara, Zamfara information commissioner.

  

  Perhaps betraying an affinity for gun control—even in as desperate a situation as that faced by Nigerians—Associated Press couldn’t help but strike a skeptical tone: “It was not yet clear how arming citizens would help prevent the attacks; authorities have admitted that even the Nigerian police are sometimes overwhelmed during violent attacks.” 

  The expansion of gun ownership is one of a variety of measures against the marauders. Others include the closure of gas stations in particularly dangerous areas, and a ban of motorcycles, which are integral to the bandits’ modus operandi. Upwards of 300 or more motorcyclists descend on villages at once, typically with both an armed rider and an armed passenger.

  “Anybody found riding a motorbike within the areas [are] considered bandits and security agencies are thereby directed to shoot such persons at sight,” said Dosara.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 20:55

• Watch: Shocking Toxic Gas Leak Kills At Least 10, Injures 100s In Jordanian Port
  Watch: Shocking Toxic Gas Leak Kills At Least 10, Injures 100s In Jordanian Port

  Via Middle East Eye,

  At least 10 people died and more than 250 were injured on Monday, when toxic gas leaked from a tank in the Jordanian port of Aqaba, state media has reported.

  

  The death toll is expected to rise, officials said, with hospitals in the port city at maximum capacity.

  The leak happened after a tank filled with a substance reported to be liquid chlorine fell during transportation, said Amer al-Sartawi, the spokesperson of the Public Security Directorate.

  Footage circulating on social media showed the spread of the gas leak.

  عاجل | لحظة سقوط وانفجار صهريج الغاز السام في #العقبة #عمون #الاردن#العقبة #الاردن pic.twitter.com/iDnvCK7vBe

  — وكالة عمون الاخبارية (@ammonnews) June 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Translation: Watch: The moment a toxic gas tank fell in Aqaba.

  The southern beach in the governorate of Aqaba was evacuated before the leak was brought under control, the official said. 

  “The area was immediately isolated, and specialists began to deal with the accident. Meanwhile, the Civil Defence transferred a number of injuries to the hospital, and they are all under treatment,” the spokesman added.

  The injured were taken to Prince Hashem Military Hospital in the city of Iba’a, as well as the Islamic Hospital, and a third private hospital, in addition to those treated at a temporary field hospital.

  The Jordan Social Security Corporation said it was maintaining a close eye on the condition of the injured in case of air evacuation to other hospitals.

  Jordanian Prime Minister Bishr al-Khasawneh has ordered an investigation, to be headed by the minister of interior.

  An environmental official was quoted by Jordanian media as saying “the impact of gas is currently declining, and there is no harm to public health as a result of the accident”.

  The head of the chemical industries sector in the Jordan Chamber of Industry, Ahmed al-Bas, said the gas was “liquid chlorine”, which he described as a basic industrial substance used as a steriliser.

  Al-Bas said high concentrations of the gas were toxic, but low concentrations were not harmful.

  He stressed that the impact of Monday’s leak “will fade within a very short time with the spread of gas in the atmosphere, especially since the place is open”.

  “In the first moments of leakage and explosion, the gas is fatal, and after a short period it becomes harmful and causes a coma, then when it vanishes in the air it becomes without effect,” he said.

  Al-Bas added that “within hours” of the leak, there would be no risk to humans from the gas.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 20:35

• Even One Of The Biggest Bears Expects The S&P To Dead-Cat Bounce To 4,100
  Even One Of The Biggest Bears Expects The S&P To Dead-Cat Bounce To 4,100

  It’s almost as if just like Wall Street bulls live in an echo chambered world, where nobody dares to take a breath out of step over fears of toppling the collective construct of stupidity and laziness where everyone is wrong but at least everyone agrees to be wrong at the same time, so the bears have some odd convergence of views, including the market inflection points. How else can one explain that a little over a week after Wall Street’s biggest bull, Michael Hartnett, actually demonstrated glimmers of bullishness in “At SPX 3600 Nibble, At 3300 Bite, At 3000 Gorge“, today the 2nd biggest Wall Street bear, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, also joined the bear market rally bandwagon and in his latest Weekly Warm Up Note (available to professional subs) writes that even though the market’s fair value will eventually head (far) lower (which in itself is remarkable since Wilson is calling for much lower risk markets over time even though his economists still don’t have the guts to make a recession their base case, leaving the bearish strategist to drift alone in the bearish void), for now “US equity markets can rally further.”

  Specifically, in addition to the lower rates and oil prices helping support the belief in a soft landing, Wilson notes that “there is still some equity demand from Pension funds that need to rebalance at the end of the month/quarter this week” similar to what we previewed last week, and here Morgan Stanley agrees with Goldman’s estimates, writing that the bank’s QDS team “estimates about $25-$30B of equity demand globally with approximately $15-$20B for the US” in terms of quarter-end pension demand. That according to Wilson is “a substantial amount of excess demand and if retail joins in like last week, that could carry equity prices higher before 2Q earnings season begins and the revisions arrive.” Furthermore, it is unlikely to see a slew of pre- announcements ahead of earnings as most companies have already managed 2Q results and likely want to wait a few more weeks for more data before providing guidance for 3Q and the rest of the year in some cases.

  Finally, the MS strategist calculates that a Fib retracement of 38-50% of the entire decline would not be unnatural or out of line with prior bear market rallies, particularly ones associated with a recession at the end which is yet to come: “In S&P 500 terms that would translate into 4100-4200 or approximately 5-7% upside from Friday’s close.”

  Let’s start at the top.

  Walking us through last week’s events, Wilson writes that with talk of recession increasing sharply over the past few weeks and culminating with Fed Chair Powell’s 2-day Congressional testimony, markets decided enough bad news had been priced. Furthermore, the MS strategist also thinks the sharp decline in both oil and interest rates helped ease some of the concerns on inflation which still remains elevated and public enemy (certainly Biden approval rating enemy) number one.

  

  In Wilson’s view, both the fall in oil and rates are being driven more by the fears of an economic slowdown, or worse, rather than a real peak in inflation and, therefore, peak Fed hawkishness. However, with markets so oversold and bearishness so pervasive, “equity investors have taken the bullish view and re-rated stocks higher via both the interest rate and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) channels.”

  Next, some math: based on Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is trading back at 16.3x or 1 turn higher than where it was at the prior week’s lows. In other words, Wilson cautions that “all of the move last week was due to valuations moving higher which seems unusual given the growing concern about earnings. In fact, even taking into account the fall in 10-year yields, the Equity Risk Premium is back to 300bps.” That to the MS strategist “makes little sense in the context of the likely negative earnings revisions coming in 2Q and still rising risk of recession over the next 6-12 months. As our fair value valuation framework (Exhibit 2) shows, the S&P 500 is now meaningfully mis-priced again for the current PMI and rates backdrop (even with the recent fall in bond yields).”

  

  Like we said: it’s a little awkward being one of the most vocal Wall Street bears without your economists even daring to make a recession their base case. It sure must lead to a lot of confused client calls… But we digress.

  As Wilson adds, another way to think about this set up is that the internals of the equity market (as least some of them as shown in the charts below) are much further along in terms of thinking about the risk of recession than bonds, a point even Goldman made over the weekend.

  

  Meanwhile, economic signals like the copper versus gold ratio and the economic surprise index are also saying the same thing.

  

  Furthermore, echoing a point we have repeatedly made in recent weeks, Wilson points out that “the Treasury market appears potentially ready to accept the risks to growth and the possibility that the Fed may not be able to complete the amount of tightening that is now priced into the bond market” Perhaps the best measure of this change is the terminal rate which started to fall last week, too.

  

  And so, with short-term rolling correlations between equities and real yields now deeply negative once again, this recent decline in bond yields has been perceived as positive for equities…

  

  … which however Wilson views is “ultimately a misread”, because as he explains, “for this read (falling yields=positive for equities) to continue to hold, we’d likely need to see a continuation of falling yields in the context of cresting inflation pressures, an associated less hawkish Fed policy path, more durable economic growth than we expect and a re-acceleration in earnings revisions.” The combination of those factors (i.e., one iteration of the soft landing) is feasible, but is not likely, in Wilson’s view.

  All of which is to say that the strategist sees the recent rebound in equities as just another bear market rally on the path to fair value price levels of 3400-3500 (his tactical base case, even though he still can’t claim a recession as his base case). Of course, if and when he does – as we noted last week –  a recession would likely bring tactical price lows closer to ~3000 (as Wilson published in his mid-year outlook in May where he hedged his bets, a recession is embedded in his bear case). Additionally, the June 2023 point in time price target associated with that bear case is 3350, which implies a temporary overshoot to the downside (~3000) of that target before working back toward that price level next May.

  In short, Wilson is still a bear – just as Hartnett is – and does not see the bear market ending any time soon, although as he adds, “it may feel like it over the next few weeks as markets take the lower rates as a sign the Fed can orchestrate a soft landing and prevent a meaningful revision to earnings forecasts.”

  * * *

  Which then brings us to his latest hedge (so that he can say he was right in either case, whether stocks surge from here or tumble), and also brings us to the topic of his latest note. In the context of last week’s (bear market) rally (which Goldman thinks has the makings of an entirely new ramp higher), Wilson thinks US equity markets can rally further. Here’s how much:

  In addition to the lower rates and oil prices helping support the belief in a soft landing, there is still some equity demand from Pension funds that need to rebalance at the end of the month/quarter this week. Our QDS team estimates about $25-$30B of equity demand globally with approximately $15-$20B for the US. That’s a substantial amount of excess demand and if retail joins in like last week, that could carry equity prices higher before 2Q earnings season begins and the revisions arrive. We think it’s unlikely to see a slew of pre-announcements ahead of earnings as most companies have already managed 2Q results and likely want to wait a few more weeks for more data before providing guidance for 3Q and the rest of the year in some cases.  Finally, a retracement of 38-50% of the entire decline would not be unnatural or out of line with prior bear market rallies, particularly ones associated with a recession at the end which is yet to come.

  

  In S&P 500 terms that would translate into 4100-4200 or approximately 5-7% upside from Friday’s close, which Wilson thinks is the possible upside from here; and if such a rally were to continue, it would likely be led by the longer duration / interest rate sensitive stocks–i.e. Nasdaq.

  That said, Wilson is quick to hedge that “in no way are we suggesting the bear market is over or that earnings estimates won’t have to come down. Instead, we are simply being realistic about the viciousness of bear markets and their ability to confound all market participants at times, even the bears.“

  What is behind Wilson’s persistent bearishness? Because as the strategist points out next when he turns back to the fundamentals, there is continuing weakness as earnings revisions breadth remains in negative territory

  

  And while this can often be a slow moving measure, it continues to decelerate in negative territory, which is “usually a precursor to a consolidation in forward EPS.” On that score, Wilson finds it interesting that “2023 net income ex-commodity sectors has actually been stagnant for several months. This points to the notion that the continued grind higher in forward earnings of the overall market has largely been driven by commodity sectors.” Of course, given that commodities are a cost for most of the market, “this is not ultimately a healthy development.”

  

  Finally, in response to client inquiries around the changing composition of the momentum factor, Wilson took a look at how the sector weights within momentum have evolved over the last week, month, 3 months, 1 year and YTD. Unsurprisingly, given recent price action, Energy has seen its weight decline over the last week, while Discretionary’s weight has jumped higher amid the market’s squeeze higher. Completing the factor picture, healthcare’s weight has jumped significantly in recent months, while Tech’s weight has fallen materially

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 20:15

• Flurry Of Calls Among Saudi Diplo Staff And Spy Coincided With 9/11 Hijackers' Arrival
  Flurry Of Calls Among Saudi Diplo Staff And Spy Coincided With 9/11 Hijackers’ Arrival

  Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities

  FBI agents investigating Saudi ties to 9/11 discovered a troubling set of phone calls among Saudi embassy and consulate officials, an extremist American cleric and a Saudi agent in San Diego—calls that took place in the weeks leading up to the first two hijackers’ arrival in Los Angeles and while they were settling in.

  The timing raises suspicions of a premeditated scheme to shepherd the hijackers into American life—and some of the call participants personally did just that.

  The phone links are described across thousands of pages of FBI documents released between September 2021 and April 2022. Many of the documents are from Operation Encore, an FBI investigation of Saudi government ties to the 9/11 plotters.

  The first two hijackers to reach the United States were Khalid al-Mihdhar and Nawaf al-Hazmi, who acted as “muscle” hijackers on American Airlines Flight 77, which struck the Pentagon.

  According to a 2008 Operation Encore document, “multiple San Diego sources and other individuals associated with al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi during their time in southern California believed that the two hijackers must have been given ‘tazkia’ prior to arriving in the United States.”

  The document defines “tazkia” as one person’s vouching for another. Someone already in America “would then, because of this individual’s relationship with the tazkia-providing individual, have provided any and all assistance that al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi would need during their time in the United States.”

  Hazmi and Mihdhar spoke very little English upon their arrival, to the extent of not even being able to read street signs. The two hijackers’ “only qualifications appeared to be support for [Osama bin Laden] and their ability to obtain visas,” says an FBI report.

  Given their unfamiliarity with the United States and its language, it seems certain these first two hijackers on U.S. soil would have indeed needed help from people already in the country.

  That help came, and phone records suggest it was pre-arranged, facilitated and supervised by Saudi government officials, employees and an intelligence asset.

  Mihdhar and Hazmi arrived in Los Angeles in January 2000. Soon after, one of the men involved in the flurry of phone calls, Omar al-Bayoumi, met the two, invited them to move to San Diego, and facilitated their renting of an apartment and other facets of becoming situated in the United States.

  A 2017 FBI document declared that “recent source information confirmed that al-Bayoumi was, at the time of the 9/11 attacks, employed as a paid cooptee of Saudi Arabian intelligence services.” A 2006 document says he later provided “substantial financial support” to a Kurdish Salafist group formed by former al Qaeda and Taliban members.

  In addition to Bayoumi, another key figure in the Operation Encore files was Fahad al-Thumairy, an official at the Saudi consulate in Los Angeles described as a “Salafi fanatic.”

  

  Thumairy was at the center of a burst of phone activity leading up to and following the hijackers’ arrival. According to an Operation Encore document:

  “During a three-day period at the end of December 1999, approximately two and a half weeks prior to the arrival of Al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi, Al-Thumairy made a number of phone calls that are significant in that the pattern of contact, including individuals and frequency, does not appear to have been duplicated prior to nor after this date.” . . .

  “[Southern District of New York] feels that these telephonic contacts prior to the arrival of al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi are an important turning point in these investigations. It shows a prior relationship between these individuals who, in the upcoming months, have extensive telephonic and face-to-face contact with al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi.”

  Twenty-one calls involving Thumairy during this time included contacts with:

  • Bayoumi, the Saudi intelligence asset who helped the hijackers

  • Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S. citizen who later rose to infamy as an al-Qaeda cleric and organizer killed in a 2011 drone strike in Yemen. In 2000, Awlaki was an imam at a southern California mosque. He’d later move to northern Virginia at a time when some of the hijackers had also situated themselves there.

  • A “Somali/Yemeni student” in San Diego whose name is redacted. While redactions always leave some uncertainty, the document appears to indicate this individual’s phone had contact with a phone number in Yemen that served as an international al Qaeda switchboard.

  • The Saudi embassy in Washington

  • The Islamic Affairs section at the Saudi embassy

  While the first document doesn’t name the individuals Thumairy talked to at the Saudi embassy in Washington, another file indicates his contacts there included:

  • Adel al-Sadhan, an Islamic Affairs section employee working for Mussaed al-Jarrah, another Saudi embassy official of FBI interest. “Al-Sadhan is believed to help al-Jarrah support extremist Saudi Sunnis in the United States,” said the FBI.

  • Mutaib al-Sudairy, an embassy administrative officer who later moved to Kansas and lived with an al Qaeda procurement officer said to have provided the phones used in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Africa.

  According to an FBI report:

  “[REDACTED] along with telephone and financial analysis, indicates Al-Sadhan and al-Sudairy may have assisted in laying the groundwork for the arrival of al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar in southern California and served as an advance team to vet those who would later assist both hijackers.”

  Their alleged advance team activity extended well before the hijackers arrived.

  A 2010 FBI report says Sadhan first visited Los Angeles and Thumairy in December 1998: “Investigators believe his visit was to begin preparations for al-Thumairy’s subsequent assistance to al-Hazmi and al-Mihdhar.” Another document says Sudairy and Sadhan visited San Diego for six weeks in the summer of 1999 and were hosted by Bayoumi.

  On December 12, 1999—about a month before the hijackers arrived—a Saudi individual named al-Jraithen arrived in Los Angeles and was registered at a hotel where Bayoumi was also registered.

  Phone records point to Thumairy, Bayoumi and Awlaki being involved with Jraithen’s visit, along with another Los Angeles consulate employee, Mohammed al-Muhanna, who’s elsewhere described as an “Islamic extremist associated with a radical form of Salafi ideology” and who is “heavily connected/linked to Saudi Sunni extremists operating inside the U.S.”

  An FBI agent, after noting some redacted indications that Jraithen’s visit held great importance, wrote, “It is possible that al-Jraithen provided the tazkia for al-Mihdar and al-Hazmi, ensuring that when the hijackers arrived the following month, they were taken care of by a network of individuals in Southern California.”

  The hijackers arrived in Los Angeles on January 13, 2000. According to a 2008 FBI document, a “confidential human source” told investigators about a call from overseas made to the King Fahad Mosque in Los Angeles where al-Thumairy was an imam.

  The source said someone asked for al-Thumairy and stated “the guys” were coming and needed to be picked up at the airport; the source understood “the guys” was a reference to Mihdhar and Hazmi.

  FBI files say a man named “Johar”—likely Mohammed Johar—was “tasked” by Thumairy to pick up the hijackers at LAX and “take care of them during their time in Los Angeles.” Two days after their arrival, Thumairy made several calls to Saudi Arabia.

  About two weeks after the hijackers landed, Bayoumi first met them at a Mediterranean restaurant in Los Angeles. He invited them to move to San Diego, where he lived.

  Bayoumi later told U.S. investigators it was a chance encounter, but it came within a couple hours after he had a meeting at the Saudi consulate with an employee described as having “extremist views.” As Stark Realities was first to report last month, in its declassification, the FBI inadvertently revealed that man’s name is “Mana.”

  On that same pivotal day, Bayoumi had a six-minute call with the Saudi embassy. He also received a $10,000 wire transfer from a man the FBI believed to be a brother-in-law who “worked for the PC.” It’s not clear what that abbreviation means. One former agent I spoke to wonders if the author mistakenly dropped an “A” in a reference to the Saudi Presidency of Civil Aviation or PCA, an entity that paid Bayoumi’s salary for a no-show job at a Saudi government contractor in California.

  Suspicious calls continued after the hijackers moved to San Diego:

  “Al-Bayoumi called al-Sudairy five (5) times while the hijackers were in San Diego with al-Bayoumi. The dates of the calls are significant. The first set of calls are 24 January, 26 January, and 30 January 2000—on these particular days al-Bayoumi met the hijackers in Culver City, CA and talked to them about coming to San Diego. The next call occurred on 2 February 2000. On 4 February 2000, al-Bayoumi co-signed a loan agreement for the apartment he obtained for the hijackers and brought them to a Bank of America to assist them in opening a bank account.

  An hour after Bayoumi helped the hijackers open the account, Awlaki called a Bank of America number. Two hours after that, Bayoumi called Awlaki.

  Bayoumi’s final call to al-Sudairy at the Saudi embassy came on February 7, 2000, after the hijackers were fully settled in the same apartment complex where Bayoumi lived.

  Five hundred eighty-two days later, Hazmi and Mihdhar passed through security at Dulles Airport and boarded American Airlines Flight 77.

  Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 19:55

• Sri Lanka Suspends Fuel Sales Amid Economic Collapse; Asks Russians For Help 
  Sri Lanka Suspends Fuel Sales Amid Economic Collapse; Asks Russians For Help 

  A broke and extremely cash-strapped Sri Lanka halted all fuel sales except for essential services in a desperate attempt to manage a severe fuel shortage — allowing the government to buy some time and send two government officials to Russia to negotiate a fuel deal. 

  “From midnight today, no fuel will be sold except for essential services like the health sector, because we want to conserve the little reserves we have,” government spokesman Bandula Gunawardana said in a pre-recorded statement, obtained by AFP News. 

  The Sri Lankan government announced only essential services would operate and be allowed access to fuel until July 10 because of a fuel shortage

  “Sri Lanka has never faced such a severe economic crisis in its history,” Gunewardena added.

  The move comes less than a week after Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the debt-laden economy of the island nation has “completely collapsed:” 

  “We are now facing a far more serious situation beyond the mere shortages of fuel, gas, electricity, and food. Our economy has faced a complete collapse. 

  “It is no easy task to revive a country with a completely collapsed economy, especially one that is dangerously low on foreign reserves,” ” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told parliament on June 22.

  Bajaj drivers with out fuel in sir Lanka on their daily activity. pic.twitter.com/Xi3Q1ha0tC

  — Hassan (@Hassanelwa) June 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The country is also facing record-high inflation and lengthy power blackouts, all of which have contributed to months of protests — sometimes violent — calling on President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to step down,” AFP said. 

  While the government said talks were held with the IMF, India, China, and Japan for new credit lines, negotiations to purchase heavily discounted Russian crude oil are set to begin this week. 

  Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said the two ministers would arrive in Russia early this week to continue talks about directly purchasing Russian fuels, according to AP News. 

  “There is an advantage for us if we could buy oil directly from the Russian government or the Russian firms. There are talks going on,” Wijesekera told reporters Sunday.

  Earlier this month, Sri Lanka turned to Russia for cheap oil to purchase crude roughly $30 below the international spot price. The South Asian country said it received 90,000 tons of Russian crude but will need a lot more. 

  Sri Lanka’s move to take Russian oil raises Western eyebrows as the country has remained neutral since the Ukraine war began. The country is in collapse as foreign exchange reserves plummeted by 70% in the last two years and have suspended foreign debt repayments — 10% of the $51 billion of the external debt owned is owed to China. 

  The government’s mishandling of the country’s economy and suspension of fuel sales could exacerbate social unrest. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 19:35

• Far-Left Groups Use Map Created By University Professors To Target Pregnancy Centers
  Far-Left Groups Use Map Created By University Professors To Target Pregnancy Centers

  Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Radical pro-abortion activists are reportedly using an interactive map developed by two University of Georgia professors to plan their violent attacks on pregnancy resource centers.

  

  These centers, which typically offer pregnancy tests and counseling services from a pro-life perspective, have been vandalized, smashed, and set on fire in growing numbers across the country in the weeks leading up to the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade.

  While these centers’ locations are public knowledge, perpetrators have been using online tools that collect and organize this information in a way that makes it easier for them to find the next target.

  One of such tools is the Crisis Pregnancy Center Map, a project led by Andrea Swartzendruber and Danielle Lambert, both professors at the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Department at the University of Georgia. The interactive map identifies the exact street addresses of over 2,500 pro-life clinics.

  The stated purpose of the map is “to provide location information about all of the crisis pregnancy centers operating in the U.S.” The website also refers to these centers as “fake women’s health centers” primarily aimed to “prevent people from having abortions.”

  “There’s reason to think that people seeking health services may not know exactly what these centers are and the services they offer,” Swartzendruber said in 2018 when the CPC map first went online.

  According to Fox News, far-left extremists are using the map to mark their next targets while trying to refrain from explicitly calling for violence.

  Puget Sound Anarchists, an Antifa-affiliated group operating out of Washington state, included the CPC map in a post celebrating the vandalism of a pro-life clinic in the state by another radical group. The group itself in May publicly claimed responsibility for vandalizing four different churches in Olympia, Washington, because of their supposed ties to pregnancy resource centers.

  “You can find your nearest fake abortion clinic on the Crisis Pregnancy Center Map,” the post read.

  In Minnesota, left-wing anti-police group Twin Cities Encampment Responders posted a link to the map shortly after the release of the Supreme Court’s ruling.

  “A map of anti-abortion fake clinics, including dozens around the Twin Cities area … you know, just because information is power,” the group wrote in the post, which has since been shared hundreds of times.

  Colorado Springs Antifa, a group known for doxxing people affiliated with right-wing groups, shared a Twitter post containing a link to the CPC map alongside the message, “For the night owls.”

  A graphic accompanying the original post reads, “Your local crisis pregnancy center tonight. Mask up. Stay dangerous.”

  One of the latest attacks on pregnancy resource centers took place on Saturday morning in Longmont, a northern suburb of Denver. According to the police, the building was set ablaze and covered with graffiti messages such as “Bans off our bodies” and “If abortions aren’t safe, neither are you.”

  The facility is run by Life Choices, a Christian non-profit organization that offers free services related to pregnancy and sexual health. In a statement, Life Choices Executive Director Kathy Roberts said the center is “devastated and stunned by this frightening act of vandalism.”

  “What we hope the perpetrators of this act understand is that an attack on Life Choices is ultimately not an attack on a political party or act of,” Roberts said. “It is an attack on those who walk through our doors every day in need of diapers, pregnancy tests, limited ultrasounds, clothing, financial and parenting classes, support, and so much more. It is an attack on a place that is supposed to be safe for women, men, and their families.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 19:15

• Activity In Tropics Emerges As Next Big Hurricane Could Send Gas Prices To "Apocalyptic" Levels
  Activity In Tropics Emerges As Next Big Hurricane Could Send Gas Prices To “Apocalyptic” Levels

  Three tropical disturbances are being closely monitored for development in the Atlantic as fears mount that above-average storms could wreak havoc on oil/gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico and send gas prices at the pump to “apocalyptic” heights. 

  “The lull in the tropics has come to an end as we’re now watching three different areas for development from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic,” The Weather Channel reports. 

  The first system is an area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to track westward early this week and could dump heavy rains along with parts of the Texas coast. Even though the storm has low probabilities of formation over the next 2-5 days, the system is situated near the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), which has the highest concentration of US refineries. 

  

  The second is a disturbance located 900 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands and has a 70% chance of cyclone formation in 2 days with probabilities at 90% for five days. Called Invest 94L, the storm is expected the strengthen as it enters the Caribbean Sea this week. Behind Invest 94L is a tropical wave with a 20% probability of developing into a storm over the next five days. 

  

  The elevated tropical activity comes as OPIS energy analysis global head Tom Kloza told Fox Bussiness,” if we have an active tropical season” that impacts domestic refining efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, then it could send gas prices to “apocalyptic” heights. 

  “I think for gasoline, we go back above $5 and apocalyptic numbers come into play with hurricanes. 

  “The thing that people have to watch and is really insidious for inflation are the values for diesel and jet fuel. Stocks of those fuels are not building, they’re tight internationally and that’s where we’re going to have to pay the piper in the last 100 days of the year,” Kloza said. 

  

  Tropical activity in the Gulf can shutter offshore drilling rigs and onshore refining operations. And given today’s extremely tight refining capacity and a bulk of the nation’s refineries are situated on the Gulf Coast, we “have to cross our fingers that no refining infrastructure gets damaged by hurricanes or by the electric grid,” Kloza said. 

  Ahead of the hurricane season, which began on the first of June, Bloomberg Markets’s Jake Lloyd-Smith warned about the consequences of an active hurricane season and how it could severely disrupt refinery operations. 

  Everyone, including the Biden administration, has figured out that the bottleneck in refining is the culprit behind soaring diesel and gasoline prices. The US is structurally short and down 1 million barrels from April 2020 to 17.95 million bpd as of June. 

  

  All it would take is one (or multiple) major hurricanes with direct landfall on the Gulf Coast (or PADD 3) to send fuel prices at the pump even higher. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 18:55

• NY Supreme Court Tosses Law Allowing Noncitizens To Vote
  NY Supreme Court Tosses Law Allowing Noncitizens To Vote

  The New York Supreme Court on Monday struck down a NYC law allowing noncitizens to vote, handing a victory to the Republican National Committee (RNC) which filed a lawsuit against the law in January.

  

  The Court said in its decision that the city has no legal authority to allow illegal immigrants to vote, according to the Daily Caller.

  “There is no statutory ability for the City of New York to issue inconsistent laws permitting non-citizens to vote and exceed the authority granted to it by the New York State Constitution,” wrote the court. “Though voting is a right that so many citizens take for granted, the City of New York cannot ‘obviate’ the restrictions imposed by the Constitution.”

  Today, a New York State court struck down NYC’s unconstitutional law allowing non-citizens to vote.
  This law was unconstitutional from the start, and even those who voted for it knew this.
  Only Albany can change this. Not the Council. That’s why I voted against it last year. pic.twitter.com/IEjbbIyItr

  — Kalman Yeger (@KalmanYeger) June 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAccording to the RNC, approximately 1 million noncitizen adults live in NYC, and claimed they could comprise 15% or more of the vote in local races – which violates the state constitution requiring that voters be US citizens.

  “Today’s ruling is a huge victory for election integrity and the rule of law: American elections should be decided by American citizens. The [Republican National Committee (RNC)] is proud to head a broad coalition in successfully challenging this unconstitutional scheme and will continue to lead the effort across the country to ensure only citizens can vote in America’s elections,” said RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a statement.

  According to a spokesperson for the NYC law department, the ruling is “disappointing … for people who value bringing in thousands more New Yorkers into the democratic process,” adding “we are evaluating next steps.“

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 06/27/2022 – 18:35

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