- Germany's Murder Of Europe
Germany’s Murder Of Europe
Authored by Drieu Godefrei via The Gatestone Institute,
In a preparatory impact report, a copy of which has been obtained by the Financial Times before official release, the European Commission estimates that to achieve the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 then 100% in 2050 — the main objective of the “European Green Deal” — Europe will need to invest €1.5 trillion a year from 2031 to 2050.
1.5 trillion euros a year. That is equivalent to 10% of the Europe Union’s entire GDP for 2022 — every year! Apart from a war effort, there is no objective of any kind that has ever required the diversion of 10% of a continent’s GDP by political decree.
The new German utopia
This number shows us that, while Germany has had to give up imposing its hatred of nuclear power on its European partners, it is determined to inflict on Europe the rest of the environmental utopia, i.e. total decarbonization, even at the cost of economic collapse and freedom
s.You may say that the European Commission is not Germany, but anyone who has worked in the Commission will tell you that there are two insurmountable lobbies at this level: Germany, by far is the most powerful country in Europe, followed by the environmental NGOs, such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, which have permanent offices in the Berlaymont, the headquarters building of the European Commission. The fact that the current president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is German is just the icing on the apfelstrudel.
All the same, everything in this delirious report by the German Commission is wrong.
The Commission’s pseudo-savvy calculations
The report states that the cost of inaction would be much higher than €1.5 trillion a year. In fact, explains the report, the European plan will save up to 1% of GDP per year. It should be noted, however, that this figure runs counter to all the IPCC’s projections on the cost of global warming — which is 0.03 % of GDP per year, not 1%.
Annex 8 of the impact report just published by the Commission states:
“The IPCC AR6 Working Group II report (2022) confirms that global aggregate economic impacts generally increase with higher degree of global warming. However, due to the wide range of damage estimates and lack of comparability between methodologies, the report does not provide a robust range of estimates but recognizes that global aggregate economic impacts could be higher than estimated in the previous report.”
In short, the IPCC’s sixth report states that the cost of global warming could actually be greater than that stated in the fifth report.
Unfortunately (for lack of time? space? ink?) the Commission does not bother to reiterate what was said in the fifth report, which was voluble and precise on the question of the cost of global warming. Let us make up for this shortcoming: according to the fifth IPCC report AR5, chapter 10:
“For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers… Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices… and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change.”
Above all, the Paris Agreement, of which the Commission claims to be part, aimed to limit global warming to only 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Achieving this objective presupposed a drastic global reduction in human greenhouse global gas emissions, not just Europe. However, since 2015, these global emissions have continued to rise, and there is no realistic scenario in which global emissions will decrease. China, which still builds roughly two new coal-power plants a week, and India continue to lay waste to these projections.
Climate, of course, is a global issue: if Europe reduces its emissions to zero, while the rest of the world continues to increase them, the effect on the climate will be zero. As a result, the German plan will not save a single euro in terms of the damage caused by global warming and extreme events.
So, the investment needed each year would not be €1.5 trillion invested to save 0.03% of GDP per year. It would be €30 trillion — €1.5 trillion per year for 20 years — invested to change absolutely nothing in the climate of Europe.
There are no serious analysts left who still maintain that the objective of the Paris Agreement will be achieved; the Paris Agreement is obsolete and to pretend otherwise, as the European Commission is doing, is misleading, irresponsible, and not even scientific.
In addition, the report goes on to say that reducing European imports of fossil fuels would result in savings of up to €2.8 trillion between 2031 and 2050. At present there is no technical or scientific way of overcoming the intermittent nature of renewable energies such as wind, solar. As a result, Europe’s energy mix will have to continue to rely on fossil fuels in addition to nuclear power, as demonstrated by Germany, the champion of lignite coal and CO2 emissions – and releasing ten times more CO2 than France, per unit of energy produced — in 2024. What is more, this pseudo-savvy calculation presupposes that we know the prices of oil and gas in advance, and that we persist in banning the exploitation of the shale gas that lies beneath Europe’s soil.
The report by the European Commission shows a frightening headlong rush. The situation in Europe is already dramatic. Since 2008, American GDP has doubled, meaning that Americans earn twice as much as they did in 2008. Since 2008, Europe’s GDP has stagnated. This means that Europeans are increasingly taxed and harassed, and forbidden to move, build, undertake, innovate and start a family as they see fit, while their incomes are not increasing.
The shale revolution means that America now could be the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, if President Joe Biden had not hobbled domestic energy production on his first day in office. The beneficiaries of his move were Russia, Iran — and China, which can now more easily sell its cheap coal, thereby polluting the climate even more.
“Meanwhile,” according to Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times, “energy prices in Europe have soared.”
“The Ukraine war and the loss of cheap Russian gas mean that European industry typically pays three or four times as much for energy as their American competitors. Gloomy European bosses say this is already leading to factory closures in Europe”.
In practical terms, whole swathes of our populations have entered into a pattern that is the ultimate dream of environmentalists: degrowth. In other words, their impoverishment. Giorgos Kallis, a prominent figure in the field of environmental economics, asserted recently the necessity of adopting a “degrowth” paradigm over the conventional GDP-based model. He contends that economies can and must thrive while simultaneously diminishing inequality and enhancing overall well-being.
Scenarios
Three possible scenarios emerge.
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In the first scenario, the EU will persist in its German ecological utopia, which will throw the whole of Europe even more deeply into the recession in which Germany is already languishing. In the context of its current economic stagnation, Europe cannot afford to divert 10% of its GDP per year to unaffordable, unreliable and intermittent energy sources. Popular revolts will multiply, making the current farmers’ revolt look like “Pat the Bunny.” It should be obvious that our democracies will not be able to withstand the impoverishment deliberately organized by “elites” who have gone mad trying to promote an insufficiently substantiated green ideology.
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In the second scenario, the EU would not undo the “European Green Deal,” but its entry into force would simply be rescheduled (meaning postponed). This scenario condemns Europe to what economists Lawrence Summers and Henri Lepage name “secular stagnation,” a condition when there is negligible or no economic growth in a market-based economy, on the model of Japan.
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A third scenario would see a new majority come to power through the European elections in June — after all, what is the point of democratic elections if not to allow a change of course? — and deconstruct (repeal) every piece of legislation in a European Green Deal that has become irrelevant or economically harmful to the most destitute among us in the current global context.
Ironically, if the IPCC’s projections are to be believed, global warming may occur, and we will adapt to it through innovation. All the resources that Europe is burning up in a phantasmatic “energy transition”, which has failed and will fail — will just burn through money that we will then not have for innovation. What will Europe do when these misguided ideologies have permanently broken the back of its economy?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 03/28/2024 – 02:00 -
- Rule By Criminals: When Dissidents Become Enemies Of The State
Rule By Criminals: When Dissidents Become Enemies Of The State
Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
– Martin Luther King Jr.
When exposing a crime is treated as committing a crime, you are being ruled by criminals.
In the current governmental climate, obeying one’s conscience and speaking truth to the power of the police state can easily render you an “enemy of the state.”
The government’s list of so-called “enemies of the state” is growing by the day.
Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is merely one of the most visible victims of the police state’s war on dissidents and whistleblowers.
Five years ago, on April 11, 2019, police arrested Assange for daring to access and disclose military documents that portray the U.S. government and its endless wars abroad as reckless, irresponsible, immoral and responsible for thousands of civilian deaths.
Included among the leaked materials was gunsight video footage from two U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopters engaged in a series of air-to-ground attacks while American air crew laughed at some of the casualties. Among the casualties were two Reuters correspondents who were gunned down after their cameras were mistaken for weapons and a driver who stopped to help one of the journalists. The driver’s two children, who happened to be in the van at the time it was fired upon by U.S. forces, suffered serious injuries.
There is nothing defensible about crimes such as these perpetrated by the government.
When any government becomes almost indistinguishable from the evil it claims to be fighting—whether that evil takes the form of war, terrorism, torture, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, murder, violence, theft, pornography, scientific experimentations or some other diabolical means of inflicting pain, suffering and servitude on humanity—that government has lost its claim to legitimacy.
These are hard words, but hard times require straight-talking.
It is easy to remain silent in the face of evil.
What is harder—what we lack today and so desperately need—are those with moral courage who will risk their freedoms and lives in order to speak out against evil in its many forms.
Throughout history, individuals or groups of individuals have risen up to challenge the injustices of their age. Nazi Germany had its Dietrich Bonhoeffer. The gulags of the Soviet Union were challenged by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. America had its color-coded system of racial segregation and warmongering called out for what it was, blatant discrimination and profiteering, by Martin Luther King Jr.
And then there was Jesus Christ, an itinerant preacher and revolutionary activist, who not only died challenging the police state of his day—namely, the Roman Empire—but provided a blueprint for civil disobedience that would be followed by those, religious and otherwise, who came after him.
Indeed, it is fitting that we remember that Jesus Christ—the religious figure worshipped by Christians for his death on the cross and subsequent resurrection—paid the ultimate price for speaking out against the police state of his day.
A radical nonconformist who challenged authority at every turn, Jesus was a far cry from the watered-down, corporatized, simplified, gentrified, sissified vision of a meek creature holding a lamb that most modern churches peddle. In fact, he spent his adult life speaking truth to power, challenging the status quo of his day, and pushing back against the abuses of the Roman Empire.
Much like the American Empire today, the Roman Empire of Jesus’ day had all of the characteristics of a police state: secrecy, surveillance, a widespread police presence, a citizenry treated like suspects with little recourse against the police state, perpetual wars, a military empire, martial law, and political retribution against those who dared to challenge the power of the state.
For all the accolades poured out upon Jesus, little is said about the harsh realities of the police state in which he lived and its similarities to modern-day America, and yet they are striking.
Secrecy, surveillance and rule by the elite. As the chasm between the wealthy and poor grew wider in the Roman Empire, the ruling class and the wealthy class became synonymous, while the lower classes, increasingly deprived of their political freedoms, grew disinterested in the government and easily distracted by “bread and circuses.” Much like America today, with its lack of government transparency, overt domestic surveillance, and rule by the rich, the inner workings of the Roman Empire were shrouded in secrecy, while its leaders were constantly on the watch for any potential threats to its power. The resulting state-wide surveillance was primarily carried out by the military, which acted as investigators, enforcers, torturers, policemen, executioners and jailers. Today that role is fulfilled by the NSA, the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security and the increasingly militarized police forces across the country.
Widespread police presence. The Roman Empire used its military forces to maintain the “peace,” thereby establishing a police state that reached into all aspects of a citizen’s life. In this way, these military officers, used to address a broad range of routine problems and conflicts, enforced the will of the state. Today SWAT teams, comprised of local police and federal agents, are employed to carry out routine search warrants for minor crimes such as marijuana possession and credit card fraud.
Citizenry with little recourse against the police state. As the Roman Empire expanded, personal freedom and independence nearly vanished, as did any real sense of local governance and national consciousness. Similarly, in America today, citizens largely feel powerless, voiceless and unrepresented in the face of a power-hungry federal government. As states and localities are brought under direct control by federal agencies and regulations, a sense of learned helplessness grips the nation.
Perpetual wars and a military empire. Much like America today with its practice of policing the world, war and an over-arching militarist ethos provided the framework for the Roman Empire, which extended from the Italian peninsula to all over Southern, Western, and Eastern Europe, extending into North Africa and Western Asia as well. In addition to significant foreign threats, wars were waged against inchoate, unstructured and socially inferior foes.
Martial law. Eventually, Rome established a permanent military dictatorship that left the citizens at the mercy of an unreachable and oppressive totalitarian regime. In the absence of resources to establish civic police forces, the Romans relied increasingly on the military to intervene in all matters of conflict or upheaval in provinces, from small-scale scuffles to large-scale revolts. Not unlike police forces today, with their martial law training drills on American soil, militarized weapons and “shoot first, ask questions later” mindset, the Roman soldier had “the exercise of lethal force at his fingertips” with the potential of wreaking havoc on normal citizens’ lives.
A nation of suspects. Just as the American Empire looks upon its citizens as suspects to be tracked, surveilled and controlled, the Roman Empire looked upon all potential insubordinates, from the common thief to a full-fledged insurrectionist, as threats to its power. The insurrectionist was seen as directly challenging the Emperor. A “bandit,” or revolutionist, was seen as capable of overturning the empire, was always considered guilty and deserving of the most savage penalties, including capital punishment. Bandits were usually punished publicly and cruelly as a means of deterring others from challenging the power of the state. Jesus’ execution was one such public punishment.
Acts of civil disobedience by insurrectionists. Much like the Roman Empire, the American Empire has exhibited zero tolerance for dissidents such as Julian Assange, Edward Snowden and Chelsea Manning who exposed the police state’s seedy underbelly. Jesus was also branded a political revolutionary starting with his attack on the money chargers and traders at the Jewish temple, an act of civil disobedience at the site of the administrative headquarters of the Sanhedrin, the supreme Jewish council.
Military-style arrests in the dead of night. Jesus’ arrest account testifies to the fact that the Romans perceived Him as a revolutionary. Eerily similar to today’s SWAT team raids, Jesus was arrested in the middle of the night, in secret, by a large, heavily armed fleet of soldiers. Rather than merely asking for Jesus when they came to arrest him, his pursuers collaborated beforehand with Judas. Acting as a government informant, Judas concocted a kiss as a secret identification marker, hinting that a level of deception and trickery must be used to obtain this seemingly “dangerous revolutionist’s” cooperation.
Torture and capital punishment. In Jesus’ day, religious preachers, self-proclaimed prophets and nonviolent protesters were not summarily arrested and executed. Indeed, the high priests and Roman governors normally allowed a protest, particularly a small-scale one, to run its course. However, government authorities were quick to dispose of leaders and movements that appeared to threaten the Roman Empire. The charges leveled against Jesus—that he was a threat to the stability of the nation, opposed paying Roman taxes and claimed to be the rightful King—were purely political, not religious. To the Romans, any one of these charges was enough to merit death by crucifixion, which was usually reserved for slaves, non-Romans, radicals, revolutionaries and the worst criminals.
Jesus was presented to Pontius Pilate “as a disturber of the political peace,” a leader of a rebellion, a political threat, and most gravely—a claimant to kingship, a “king of the revolutionary type.” After Jesus is formally condemned by Pilate, he is sentenced to death by crucifixion, “the Roman means of executing criminals convicted of high treason.” The purpose of crucifixion was not so much to kill the criminal, as it was an immensely public statement intended to visually warn all those who would challenge the power of the Roman Empire. Hence, it was reserved solely for the most extreme political crimes: treason, rebellion, sedition, and banditry. After being ruthlessly whipped and mocked, Jesus was nailed to a cross.
Jesus—the revolutionary, the political dissident, and the nonviolent activist—lived and died in a police state. Any reflection on Jesus’ life and death within a police state must take into account several factors: Jesus spoke out strongly against such things as empires, controlling people, state violence and power politics. Jesus challenged the political and religious belief systems of his day. And worldly powers feared Jesus, not because he challenged them for control of thrones or government but because he undercut their claims of supremacy, and he dared to speak truth to power in a time when doing so could—and often did—cost a person his life.
Unfortunately, the radical Jesus, the political dissident who took aim at injustice and oppression, has been largely forgotten today, replaced by a congenial, smiling Jesus trotted out for religious holidays but otherwise rendered mute when it comes to matters of war, power and politics.
Yet for those who truly study the life and teachings of Jesus, the resounding theme is one of outright resistance to war, materialism and empire.
What a marked contrast to the advice being given to Americans by church leaders to “submit to your leaders and those in authority,” which in the American police state translates to complying, conforming, submitting, obeying orders, deferring to authority and generally doing whatever a government official tells you to do.
Telling Americans to blindly obey the government or put their faith in politics and vote for a political savior flies in the face of everything for which Jesus lived and died.
Will we follow the path of least resistance—turning a blind eye to the evils of our age and marching in lockstep with the police state—or will we be transformed nonconformists “dedicated to justice, peace, and brotherhood”?
As Martin Luther King Jr. reminds us in a powerful sermon delivered 70 years ago, “This command not to conform comes … [from] Jesus Christ, the world’s most dedicated nonconformist, whose ethical nonconformity still challenges the conscience of mankind.”
Ultimately, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, this is the contradiction that must be resolved if the radical Jesus—the one who stood up to the Roman Empire and was crucified as a warning to others not to challenge the powers-that-be—is to be an example for our modern age.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 23:40 - Whiskey Rich: Luxury Liquor Trumps Stocks & Art Over Past Decade
Whiskey Rich: Luxury Liquor Trumps Stocks & Art Over Past Decade
Some of the world’s ultra-wealthy spend their money on luxury goods such as fine wines, expensive watches, or one-of-a-kind art pieces as a passion, but others consider them investments – and their returns do often end up paying off.
Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu dives into the 10-year performance of various luxury good classes as of Q4 2023, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index released as part of the 2024 Wealth Report. The 10-year return of the S&P 500 was included for additional context.
Rare Whisky Bottles Have Outperformed the S&P 500 Since 2013
Knight Frank’s index uses the weighted average of each individual asset, tracking sales of reference brands and pieces for each asset.
Over the past 10 years, rare whisky (or whiskey, depending on where it was made) has been the best performing luxury asset, appreciating by 280% and even besting the S&P 500.
Numerous sale records have been broken at auctions since COVID-19, with collectors sometimes shelling out millions for a single bottle. In November 2023 for example, a bottle of The Macallan Valerio Adami 60 Year Old (of which only 40 bottles were produced) sold for $2.7 million at a Sotheby’s auction. Before bidding commenced, Sotheby’s had given the bottle a high estimate of $1.5M.
Fine wine and luxury watches were the next two best performing luxury goods by 10-year returns, at +146% and +138% respectively.
At the bottom were jewelry (+37%), such as rings and necklaces, and colored diamonds (+8%), including rare pink and blue diamonds.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 23:20 - The Evolving Battlefield: How AI And Drones Redefine Modern Warfare
The Evolving Battlefield: How AI And Drones Redefine Modern Warfare
Authored by Jon Sun and Sean Tseng via The Epoch Times,
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolds, drones have transcended traditional weaponry, emerging as pivotal agents of change in modern combat. Their deployment has not only diversified tactics on the battlefield but also heightened concerns over the potential for autonomous drones to elude human oversight, posing unprecedented risks to global security. Experts underscore the necessity for stringent human control and regulatory oversight over AI-equipped drones and other autonomous lethal armaments.
The utilization of drones in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been widely documented, showcasing scenarios where drones, after identifying and locking onto targets such as tanks, execute self-destructive attacks. These aerial devices also execute high-altitude bombings, targeting trenches and other military installations. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces frequently publish such footage, underscoring the drone’s instrumental role in shaping contemporary warfare dynamics.
In a column titled “How the Drone War in Ukraine Is Transforming Conflict,” published by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations in January, the transformative impact of drones was highlighted. The commentary emphasized how small, potent, and user-friendly drones have demonstrated their strategic superiority on the battlefield, prompting a global surge in drone adoption within military strategies.
Military commentator Xia Loshan, in a discussion with The Epoch Times, remarked on the strategic advantages of drones, stating, “A cost-effective, portable quadcopter drone, equipped to deliver ammunition, can penetrate deep into enemy lines without risking soldier lives, offering precision and efficiency.”
In this aerial image, people inspect destroyed Russian military vehicles by the side of a road in Dmytrivka, Ukraine on April 21, 2022. (Alexey Furman/Getty Images)
Mr. Xia further noted the expanding utility of unmanned technologies across various domains, including aerial, maritime, underwater, and terrestrial operations, underscoring their revolutionary impact on future military engagements.
“A drone costing just a few thousand dollars can effectively neutralize an advanced tank worth over 5 million dollars,” Mr. Xia said, illustrating a remarkable disparity in warfare economics.
Drones’ ease of manufacture, low detection and radar interception rates, and precision targeting via satellite data further accentuate their tactical viability. Importantly, drones facilitate offensive operations without compromising soldier safety, marking a significant evolution in how military objectives are pursued.
The Emergence of AI Weapons: A Dual-Edged Sword for Humanity
The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and drone technology have ushered in a new era of warfare, raising profound ethical and existential questions. Among the most pressing concerns is the potential for the development of AI weapons capable of autonomously making lethal decisions.
Geoffrey Hinton, a British-Canadian computer scientist renowned for his contributions to AI and often dubbed the “godfather of AI,” has voiced his apprehensions about the trajectory of AI development.
British-Canadian cognitive psychologist and computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, known as the ‘godfather of AI’ speaks with technology journalist and CEO of The Atlantic Nick Thompson (R) during the Collision Tech Conference at the Enercare Centre in Toronto, Canada, on June 28, 2023. (Geoff Robins/AFP via Getty Images)
In a recent dialogue with Japanese media, Mr. Hinton elucidated the dual-edged nature of AI’s evolution. He underscored the danger inherent in AI systems that, if tasked with grand-scale objectives like climate objectives, might identify humanity itself as the problem. Furthermore, Mr. Hinton highlighted the inevitability of AI systems growing more sophisticated as they engage in competition, potentially leading to scenarios where they could manipulate human actions to avoid being disabled.
Alarmingly, Mr. Hinton speculates that within the next decade, we could witness the advent of AI weapons capable of independently targeting and eliminating humans. He draws a parallel with the history of chemical warfare, suggesting that the international community may only seek to restrict AI weapons following catastrophic consequences, mirroring the reactive measures taken after World War I.
Echoing Mr. Hinton’s concerns, military expert Mr. Xia points out that AI’s potential threat to humanity is not a new concept. He references the AI program “AlphaGo’s” victories over human champions in Go as an early indicator. However, the integration of AI into weapon systems presents an immediate and grave danger.
Mr. Xia argues that AI’s capability to enhance weapon system efficiency, coupled with advances in sensor, communication, and computing technologies, is pushing us toward the deployment of fully autonomous AI-controlled weapons.
“What people are really worried about is that one day AI might control and even enslave humans,” Mr. Xia added.
The United States has adopted a cautious stance on this issue, insisting on the inclusion of human oversight in any decision-making process involving lethal force. It has also launched a global initiative to establish ethical guidelines for AI use.
Yet, the lack of unanimous agreement among nations, with significant powers like China, Russia, and North Korea abstaining, poses a formidable challenge. The partial adherence to these ethical principles, Mr. Xia warns, could lead to a perilous lack of constraints on AI in military applications, posing a significant risk to global security and humanity’s future.
A Ukrainian serviceman of an air reconnaissance squad of the 45th Brigade prepares to launch a Leleka reconnaissance UAV on a position in Donetsk region of Ukraine on June 27, 2023. (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)
The Surge in Small Drone Demand: A New Era in Warfare
In a notable development earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the creation of a specialized drone department within the Ukrainian military. This initiative aims to domestically produce 1 million drones within the year, highlighting the growing reliance on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in modern conflict zones.
Ukraine’s commitment to enhancing its drone capabilities is evident, with over 200 companies currently engaged in drone production. The war effort has even seen civilian-crafted drones being deployed to the front lines, with estimates suggesting a demand of 10,000 drones per month to sustain operations.
The escalation of drone production in Ukraine, which saw a 16.8-fold increase following the Russian invasion, mirrors a broader trend in military technology. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also emphasized the strategic importance of drones, advocating for the accelerated development of dual-use UAVs. This focus on drone technology is indicative of the changing dynamics of warfare, where unmanned systems are playing increasingly critical roles.
A military operator walks past DJI Matrice 300 reconnaissance drones, bought in the frame of the program ‘The Army of Drones’ set up ready for test flights prior to being sent to the front line in the Kyiv region on Aug. 2, 2022. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)
At a recent defense industry exhibition in Singapore, which ranks among Asia’s largest, military representatives from around the globe were briefed on the latest advancements in drone technology. American manufacturers showcased the Switchblade 300, a compact drone designed for kamikaze missions, which has been supplied to Ukraine by the United States.
The drone, capable of destroying targets up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) away through a suicide attack, exemplifies the tactical versatility and demand for UAVs capable of precision strikes.
An Israeli innovation that captured attention at the exhibition was a “next-generation” drone by Elbit Systems, capable of autonomous flight up to 24 hours. This development underscores the global appetite for advanced drone capabilities, with calls for new features growing louder.
The conflict in Ukraine has served as a catalyst for nations worldwide, including the United States, Europe, Japan, and China, to accelerate their drone development programs and integrate UAVs into their strategic planning. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, for instance, have analyzed drone usage in Ukraine to devise countermeasures and anticipate a future where drones could potentially replace manned combat helicopters.
Professor Seigo Iwamoto from Kyoto Sangyo University describes small drones as “the poor man’s air force,” highlighting their affordability and accessibility. He notes the proliferation of drones among various armed groups, equating their impact on warfare to that of firearms. This democratization of aerial technology could lead to increased casualties in escalated conflicts.
Amidst growing tensions, Mr. Xia remarks on the strategic positioning between the U.S. and China, with the Pentagon’s “Replicator” program aiming to utilize a multitude of small, intelligent, and cost-effective platforms. This initiative seeks to counterbalance China’s numerical superiority in ships, missiles, and personnel, showcasing the strategic pivot towards leveraging drone technology in global military strategies.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 23:00 - CBO Director Warns Of Debt Market Meltdown With US Debt Is On "Unprecedented" Trajectory
CBO Director Warns Of Debt Market Meltdown With US Debt Is On “Unprecedented” Trajectory
We’ve been pointing it out for so long – in fact, for most of our 15 years in existence – that it has become more of a chore than actual reporting, especially since the “number only go up“, as it hits a new all time high virtually every day. We are talking, of course, about the exponential curve that is the US debt, arguably one of the most boring and at the same time, most exciting topics of all time (because one day the “number go up no more” and you want to be far, far away when that happens).
Perhaps the catchiest observation we made on the trajectory of US debt was last September when we first noted that it is rising by $1 trillion every three months, or every 100 or so days…
Total US Debt surpasses $33 trillion for the first time.
For those keeping tabs, the US added $1 trillion in debt in three (3) months. pic.twitter.com/9eJVnX1YnZ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 18, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
… a soundbite which has since been picked up and stolen by pretty much everyone else in the media, if with the usual 6+ month lag behind us.
Not only has it gotten boring to be ahead of the curve by almost half a year, but pretty much every possible warning that could be said about the exponential increase in the US debt has been – well – said.
And yet, every now and then we are surprised by the latest developments surrounding the unsustainable, exponential trajectory of US debt. Like, for example, the establishment admitting that it is on an unsustainable, exponential trajectory.
That’s precisely what happened overnight when in an interview with the oh so very serious Financial Times (which has done everything in its power to keep its readers out of the best performing asset class of all time, bitcoin), the director of the Congressional Budget Office, Phillip Swagel, issued a stark warning that the United States could suffer a similar market crisis as seen in the United Kingdom 18 months ago, during former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s brief stint leading Britain – which briefly sent yields soaring, sparked a run on the pound, led to an immediate restart of QE by the Bank of England and a bailout of various pension funds, not to mention the almost instant resignation of Truss – citing the nation’s “unprecedented” fiscal trajectory.
The striking words from the head of the CBO, best known perhaps for publishing doomer debt/GDP projection charts such as this one…
… warned of the dangers of the U.S. facing “what the U.K. faced with former prime minister Truss — where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action”, comes as US government debt continues to break records, fueling concerns about the burden that places on the economy and taking a toll on America’s credit rating.
As a reminder, in September 2022, Truss roiled markets as she pressed for significant tax cuts, including changes lessening the tax burden on wealthier individuals without offsets, as well as other economic measures. The budget proposal spurred a major selloff of British debt, forcing U.K. interest rates to decades-long highs and causing the value of the pound to tank. While Truss defended her agenda as a means to spur economic growth, she stepped down as prime minister after less than two months on the job following the market revolt to her administration.
Meanwhile, it was up to the Bank of England to bail everyone out: the central bank intervened in the market, pledging to buy gilts on “whatever scale is necessary” with Dave Ramsden, a senior official at the central bank, saying at the time that “were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability.”
Needless to say, by bringing up the catastrophic rule of Truss, who for at least a few days tried to impose a regime of fiscal and monetary austerity which immediately blew up the UK bond market and led to an instant market crisis, Swagel is admitting that there is nothing that can be done to reverse the growth of US debt and to make what is already an exponential chart less exponential. Quite the opposite, in fact.
And while Swagel said the U.S. is “not there yet,” he raised concerns of how bond markets could fare as interest rates have climbed. Specifically, he warned that as higher interest rates raise the cost of paying its creditors, on track to reach $1 trillion per year in 2026, bond markets could “snap back.”
Well, we have some bad news, because if one calculates total US interest on an actual, annualized basis… we don’t have to wait until 2026, we are there already and then some.
Indeed, it seems like it was just yesterday when everyone was talking about US debt interest surpassing $1 trillion (and more than all US defense spending). Well, hold on to your hats, because as of this month, total US interest is now $1.1 trillion, and rising by $100 billion every 4 months (we should probably trademark this before everyone else steals it too).
According to the CBO, US government debt is set to keep rising. “Such large and growing debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of US debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook,” it said in a report last week. “It could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.”
Only that will never happen, because a politician who is “constrained” in their policy choices – one who doesn’t feed the entitlements beast in hopes of winning votes (while generously spreading pork for friends and family) – is a politician who is fired.
Perhaps afraid he would sound too much like ZeroHedge, the CBO director left a glimmer of hope, saying that the nation has “the potential for some changes that seem modest — or maybe start off modest and then get more serious — to have outsized effects on interest rates, and therefore on the fiscal trajectory.” But we doubt even he believes it.
In the CBO’s long-term budget outlook report released last week, the budget agency projected the national deficit would rise “significantly in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5 percent of GDP in 2054.” Which of course, is laughable: the US deficit is already at 6.5% of GDP – a level that traditionally implied there is a major economic crisis – and yet here we are, with unemployment *reportedly* at just 3.8%. Said otherwise, the US deficit will – with 100% certainty – hit 8.5% of GDP during the next recession which will likely be triggered as soon as Trump wins the November election.
The budget scorekeeper attributed the projected growth to rising interest costs, as well as “large and sustained primary deficits, which exclude net outlays for interest.” In short, everything is already going to hell to keep “Bidenomics” afloat, but when you also throw in the interest on the debt, well.. that’s game over man.
Socialists, and other liberals who are only good at spending other people’s money and selling debt until the reserve currency finally breaks, quickly sprung to defense of the debt black hole that the US economy has become.
Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the communist-leaning Center for American Progress think tank, pointed to improved deficit projections in recent years, as well as forecasts from the CBO he said “don’t project anything that looks like a panic.”
“If someone were thinking about, ‘Should I panic or should I not panic?’ I would just say, ‘hey, the underlying situation has gotten better, right?’” Kogan said, adding “there’s been lower, long-term projected deficits in the Biden administration.”
Instead of responding, we will again just show the latest CBO debt forecast chart and leave it up to readers to decide if they should panic or not.
What Kogan said next, however, was chilling: “You either should have been worried a long time ago, or you should be less worried now,” he said. “Because we’ve been on roughly the same path for forever, but to the extent that it’s different, it’s better.”
Actually no, it’s not better. It much, much worse, and the fact that supposedly “serious people” are idiots and make such statements is stunning because, well, these are the people in charge!
But he is certainly right that “you should have been worried a long time ago” – we were very worried, and everyone laughed at us, so we decided – you know what, it’s not worth the effort, may as well sit back and watch it all sink.
And now bitcoin is at a record $72,000 on its way to $1 million and gold is at a record $2,200 also on its way to… pick some nice round number…. in fact the number doesn’t matter if it is denominated in US dollars because very soon, the greenback will go the way of the reichsmark.
And just to make sure that nothing will ever change, even after the US enters the infamous Minsky Moment, shortly after the close we got this headline::
- *UNITED STATES AA+ RATING AFFIRMED BY S&P; OUTLOOK STABLE
Because when nobody dares to tell the truth, why should anything change?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 22:40 - Cattle-Tracking Provision That May Limit Beef Supply Passed In Omnibus Bill
Cattle-Tracking Provision That May Limit Beef Supply Passed In Omnibus Bill
Authored by Matthew Lysiak via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A controversial measure to include $15 million for the electronic tracking of livestock has made it through Congress via the recently passed omnibus bill, raising fears among critics that the new system could be weaponized by the government to limit beef consumption.
Cows and sheep grazing in a paddock near Albany, Western Australia, on Nov. 24, 2023. (Susan Mortimer/The Epoch Times) American cattle rancher Shad Sullivan told The Epoch Times that he fears that the electronic tags will be the end of the small rancher.
“They are going to use it as a taxing mechanism to eventually control the livestock,” Mr. Sullivan said. “In the European Union, they used these measures under the guise of climate change lies to limit the cattle supply, and if they do that here, it will destroy our industry.
“If the tag mandate is implemented it will be the key to open the door to the gas chamber for independent ranching.”
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who owns livestock, also sounded the alarm that the move could lead to the erosion of the industry.
“The left wants to ban cattle and before you can ban anything you need a registry, you need to know where it’s at and who owns it and that’s why they want to tag cattle,” he said in a March 23 post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “We’ve seen it happen in Europe.”
In a previous post, Mr. Massie wrote that, if passed, the electronic tracking “will be used by the GREEN agenda to limit beef production, and by the corporate meat oligopoly to DOMINATE small ranchers.”
The omnibus bill, which was passed on March 22, combines six essential spending bills into one and includes text that allocates $15 million to “related infrastructure” needed for the program.
The full text of the provision reads: “The agreement directs the Department to continue to provide the tag and related infrastructure needed to comply with the Federal Animal Disease Traceability rule, including no less than $15,000,000 for electronic identification (EID) tags and related infrastructure needed for stakeholders to comply with the proposed rule, ‘Use of Electronic Identification Eartags as Official Identification in Cattle and Bison,’ should that rule be finalized.”
Since its initial proposal last year, the mandate for electronic ear tags for cattle and bison crossing state lines has stirred controversy, particularly among small ranchers. They fear that the added costs, which large corporate ranchers can absorb, will drive many smaller operations out of business.
Currently, most livestock are tracked using tags that display 11-digit numbers, which are both visible and trackable. On Jan. 19, 2023, the Federal Register published proposed regulations to mandate the inclusion of radio-frequency identification in ear tags. These enhanced tags must be “both visually and electronically readable” to be recognized as official for the interstate movement of cattle and bison.
“Livestock,” under the regulation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service; includes all sexually intact cattle and bison 18 months of age and older; all female dairy cattle of any age; all male dairy cattle born after March 11, 2013; cattle and bison of any age used for rodeo or recreational events; and cattle and bison of any age used for shows or exhibitions, according to the proposal.
Since 2003, following the discovery of the first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, also known as mad cow disease, in the United States, ranchers have been pushed to adopt electronic identification tags for livestock movement. The cattle industry has been gradually advancing toward enhanced traceability rules and technology ever since.
However, the federal mandating of electronic ear tags would place unnecessary and punitive costs on American ranchers while also further raising the price of beef, according to Justin Tupper, president of the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association.
“It is another example of ridiculous spending,” Mr. Tupper told the Epoch Times. “If they are going to use these funds to hand out free tags to those who would want them then there would be no real harm, but that is not what it looks like they are doing here.
“Instead they are going to give them to the big tag companies to shove down our throat to mandate it, which is an entirely different thing.”
A new mandate on livestock would only add another obstacle to an industry already decimated by regulations and drought.
The beef cattle supply has already dropped to its lowest point in decades, raising the price of beef to another all-time high and renewing concerns over the long-term health of the nation’s farming community. A series of severe droughts, coupled with government policies that continue to favor large, industrial food processors, has reduced the nation’s supply of beef cattle to a level not seen since the early 1950s, according to Mr. Tupper.
Lawmakers slipped the funding for the electronic ear tag infrastructure into a single paragraph in the omnibus bill, which allowed lawmakers to pass legislation without the scrutiny that would normally occur and is another example of the increasingly intrusive role the federal government has in the lives of the independent ranchers, he said.
“Anything that is mandated we are going to push back very hard against,” Mr. Tupper said. “We always have to be aware of who controls the data.
“We are well aware of the fact that data can exert a tremendous amount of control over the nation’s livestock.”
The provision could also be the beginning of the end for the independent American rancher, according to Mr. Sullivan.
“The beef industry is the last bastion of freedom,” he said. “Ranchers across the nation have to stand up. If not, these tags will be the end of the small rancher.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 22:20 - Who's Leading The Race To Mine The Deep Sea?
Who’s Leading The Race To Mine The Deep Sea?
India has applied to the International Seabed Authority (ISA) for two new licenses to explore parts of the Indian Ocean sea bed for minerals crucial to the green energy transition. If they are granted, India would hold four contracts, making it the country with the second highest number of active contracts for deep sea mining exploration projects in the world.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, based on ISA data, China currently has five contracts, making it the leading country in terms of contracts for permitted deep sea mining exploration.
You will find more infographics at Statista
There are currently 31 contracts that have been signed off on by the ISA, 30 of which are active, and each of which last 15 years. Several of these involve governmental entities – for example, the Government of India, the Government of Poland, the Government of the Republic of Korea all appear on the ISA website. However, the majority are private companies that have so far directly engaged in contracts for deep-sea mining with the ISA.
There are three main categories of deep sea mineral exploration: finding and collecting polymetallic nodules (PMN), polymetallic sulfides (PMS) and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts (CFC) in the deep seabed. India’s two new proposed contracts apply to the latter two methods, first for the exploration of PMS in the Carlsberg Ridge of the Central Indian Ocean and secondly for the exploration of CFC in the deep seabed of the Afanasy-Nikitin Seamount in the Central Indian Ocean.
According to the ISA, the majority of companies looking into seabed exploration are focused on polymetallic nodules (19; with 17 of these focused on the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone), followed by polymetallic sulfides (7) in the Southwest Indian Ridge, Central Indian Ridge and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and then only 5 companies looking into polymetallic crusts in the Western Pacific Ocean.
As Gaby Ramirez’s article for Unbias the News outlines, the issue of deep sea mining is a complex and divisive one. Supporters argue that in order to manage a successful green transition, we will need more of these precious metals and fast. Critics argue, on the other hand, that far more information is needed before further action can be taken, namely on how such extractions will impact the environment of what has been called the “final frontier” of the Earth.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 22:00 - "There's A Lot More Chainsaw": Argentine President Milei To Fire 70,000 Government Workers
“There’s A Lot More Chainsaw”: Argentine President Milei To Fire 70,000 Government Workers
Argentina’s libertarian president Javier Milei, perhaps best known for his shotgun approach to government jobs…
Bloomberg reports that Argentina’s President Javier Milei is planning to fire 70,000 government workers
pic.twitter.com/GL4TMOpehA— Business Blurb™ (@BusinessBlurbUS) March 27, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
… plans to fire 70,000 government workers in the coming months, in what Bloomberg called “one of the clearest signs yet of how the libertarian’s chainsaw-style approach intends to slash the swollen state.”
Beyond the job cuts, Milei also boasted at an event on Tuesday that he has frozen public works, cut off some funding to provincial governments and terminated more than 200,000 social welfare plans, which he labeled as corrupt, all as part of his strategy to reach a fiscal balance at any cost this year.
“There’s a lot of blender,” Milei said in an hour long speech at the IEFA Latam Forum in Buenos Aires, referring to the erosion of wages and pensions by 276% annual inflation. “There’s a lot more chainsaw.”
Other key points from Milei’s speech Tuesday:
- Milei said peso futures contracts are aligned with the central bank’s 2% monthly crawling peg scheme, labeling calls to sharply devalue the currency again “ridiculous”
- Argentina central bank on the path to achieving net neutral reserves after starting with debt liabilities that surpassed cash on hand by $11.5 billion in December
- Milei says he’ll double down on his attempts to reform the Argentine economy after 2025 congressional elections, with more than 3,000 reforms in the pipeline
- He described the Senate rejecting his emergency decree as “marvelous” because “it left all the dirty fingers” of exposed of politicians he calls “delinquents”
- Milei expects V-shaped economic recovery
Full speech is below:
It’s not just the US that has a government worker problem with its 23.2 million state parasites…
… Argentina’s state (and deep state) is also rather extensive. And while Milei’s termination plans affest just a small fraction of Argentina’s 3.5 million public sector workers, the job cuts are bound to face tremendous pushback from the country’s powerful labor unions and could jeopardize his high approval ratings. One union representing some government workers went on strike Tuesday, while a government report detailed that private sector workers suffered the worst one-month wage loss in at least three decades once he took office in December.
The leader of the state workers union ATE quickly shot back on X, announcing a national strike without providing further details.
Milei cited polls showing Argentines are more optimistic about the economy’s future, while a recent indicator of the public confidence in the government rose despite his austerity measures.“People have hope, they’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” Milei concluded.
Well… maybe, but maybe not, because it doesn’t take much by those used to state handouts to organize and collapse the system. And sure enough, a quick look at the country’s real GDP (as measured by the EMAE monthly activity indicator), shows a brutal 4.3% year over year contraction in January, as well as a sequential decline in real GDP of 1.2%, with Goldman noting that “activity softened significantly at the end of 2023 and the weakness extended to the beginning of the year.”
While we appreciate the novelty and excitement sparked by Milei, we wonder: just how much real pain can the people sustain before they demand that he, too, be replaced with someone who promises to ease their pain?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 21:55 - NSF Paid Universities To Develop AI Censorship Tools For Social Media
NSF Paid Universities To Develop AI Censorship Tools For Social Media
By Daniel Nuccio of The College Fix
“Used by governments and Big Tech to shape public opinion by restricting certain viewpoints or promoting others’: report
The National Science Foundation is paying universities using taxpayer money to create AI tools that can be used to censor Americans on various social media platforms, according to members of the House.
University of Michigan, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and MIT are among the universities cited in the House Judiciary Committee and the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government interim report.
It details the foundation’s “funding of AI-powered censorship and propaganda tools, and its repeated efforts to hide its actions and avoid political and media scrutiny.”
“NSF has been issuing multi-million-dollar grants to university and non-profit research teams” for the purpose of developing AI-powered technologies “that can be used by governments and Big Tech to shape public opinion by restricting certain viewpoints or promoting others,” states the report, released last month.
Funding for the projects began in 2021 and was issued through the NSF’s Convergence Accelerator grant program, which was initially launched in 2019 to develop interdisciplinary solutions to major challenges of national and societal importance such as those pertaining to AI and quantum technology, it states.
In 2021, however, the NSF introduced “Track F: Trust & Authenticity in Communication Systems.”
The NSF’s 2021 Convergence Accelerator program solicitation stated the goal of Track F projects was to “develop prototype(s) of novel research platforms forming integrated collection(s) of tools, techniques, and educational materials and programs to support increased citizen trust in public information of all sorts (health, climate, news, etc.), through more effectively preventing, mitigating, and adapting to critical threats in our communications systems.”
Specifically, the grant solicitation singled out the threats posed by hackers and misinformation.
That September, the select subcommittee report notes, the NSF awarded “twelve Track F teams $750,000 each (a total of $9 million) to develop and refine their project ideas and build partnerships.” The following year, the NSF selected six of the 12 teams to receive an additional $5 million each for their respective projects, according to the report.
Projects from the University of Michigan, University of Wisconsin-Madison, MIT, and Meedan, a nonprofit that specializes in developing software to counter misinformation, are highlighted by the select subcommittee.
Collectively, these four projects received $13 million from the NSF, it states.
“The University of Michigan intended to use the federal funding to develop its tool ‘WiseDex,’ which could use AI technology to assess the veracity of content on social media and assist large social media platforms with what content should be removed or otherwise censored,” it states.
The University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Course Correct, which was featured in an article from The College Fix last year, was “intended to aid reporters, public health organizations, election administration officials, and others to address so-called misinformation on topics such as U.S. elections and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.”
MIT’s Search Lit, as described in the select subcommittee’s report, was developed as an intervention to help educate groups of Americans the researchers believed were most vulnerable to misinformation such as conservatives, minorities, rural Americans, older adults, and military families.
Meedan, according to its website, used its funding to develop “easy-to-use, mobile-friendly tools [that] will allow AAPI [Asian-American and Pacific Islander] community members to forward potentially harmful content to tiplines and discover relevant context explainers, fact-checks, media literacy materials, and other misinformation interventions.”
According to the select committee’s report, “Once empowered with taxpayer dollars, the pseudo-science researchers wield the resources and prestige bestowed upon them by the federal government against any entities that resist their censorship projects.”
“In some instances,” the report states, “if a social media company fails to act fast enough to change a policy or remove what the researchers perceive to be misinformation on its platform, disinformation researchers will issue blogposts or formal papers to ‘generate a communications moment’ (i.e., negative press coverage) for the platform, seeking to coerce it into compliance with their demands.”
Efforts were made via email to contact senior members of the three university research teams, as well as a representative from Meedan, regarding the portrayal of their work in the select subcommittee’s report.
Paul Resnick, who serves as the WiseDex project director at the University of Michigan, referred The College Fix to the WiseDex website.
“Social media companies have policies against harmful misinformation. Unfortunately, enforcement is uneven, especially for non-English content,” states the site. “WiseDex harnesses the wisdom of crowds and AI techniques to help flag more posts [than humans can]. The result is more comprehensive, equitable, and consistent enforcement, significantly reducing the spread of misinformation.”
A video on the site presents the tool as a means to help social media sites flag posts that violate platform policies and subsequently attach warnings to or remove the posts. Posts portraying approved COVID-19 vaccines as potentially dangerous are used as an example.
Michael Wagner from the University of Wisconsin-Madison also responded to The Fix, writing, “It is interesting to be included in a report that claims to be about censorship when our project censors exactly no one.”
According to the select subcommittee report, some of the researchers associated with Track F and similar projects, however, privately acknowledged efforts to combat misinformation were inherently political and a form of censorship.
Yet, following negative coverage of Track F projects, depicting them as politically motivated and their products as government-funded censorship tools, the report notes, the NSF began discussing media and outreach strategy with grant recipients.
Notes from a pair of Track F media strategy planning sessions included in Appendix B of the select subcommittee’s report recommended researchers, when interacting with the media, focus on the “pro-democracy” and “non-ideological” nature of their work, “Give examples of both sides,” and “use sports metaphors.”
The select subcommittee report also highlights that there were discussions of having a media blacklist, although at least one researcher from the University of Michigan objected to this, citing the potential optics.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 21:40 - "Zero Critical Reasoning": Employers Say GenZ "Toxic" For Companies
“Zero Critical Reasoning”: Employers Say GenZ “Toxic” For Companies
A new report has found that 68% of small business owners say Gen Z employees are the “least reliable,” while 71% say they’re most likely to have a mental health issue in the workplace.
Illustration via Insider One of the employers surveyed spoke of Gen Z’s “absolute delusion, complete lack of common sense, and zero critical reasoning or basic analytical skills,” according to the Freedom Economy Index report conducted by PublicSquare and RedBalloon this month.
Less than 4% of those surveyed said Gen Z was the generation that most aligns with their workplace culture, while 62% said Gen Z’s were most likely to create division and toxicity in the workplace.
Another employer surveyed said the generation is “expecting promotions for simply showing up every day.”
@brielleybelly123 im also getting sick leave me alone im emotional ok i feel 12 and im scared of not having time to live
https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js
What’s more, 57% of those surveyed said that Gen Z runs the most risk of creating a workplace lawsuit.
Newsweek has come out in defense of Gen Z, citing two experts who say the kids are just misunderstood.
Dan Space, an HR consultant who runs DanFromHR.com, said since the study reflects the feelings of small business owners, it could be skewed. These types of businesses often do not pay well or offer a high-quality company culture, he said, and Gen Z tends to look for those in any type of role or career they take on, he said.
“Gen Z is one of the most informed, confident and no BS generation because they saw what happened to the millennials before them,” Space told Newsweek.
“Being told to go to college to get a great job, graduating with up to hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, with zero tools to get a job, land somewhere and not be given the information on salaries, career development, moving towards compensation models that use mixed variations….So I find they are just far more comfortable with not putting up with this BS and being informed,” Space continued.
Space conceded that Gen Zers are most likely to have mental health issues, ‘but he does believe they are more likely to be confident in discussing it and drawing boundaries,’ Newsweek reports.
Ok Dan.
@thebjamin Generational Gap – Born 1970 1980 1990 2000 #genz ♬ original sound – Sterling Malory Archer https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js
Can’t Even-ing intensifies…
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 21:20 - The Crude Necessity: Excerpt From "How To Listen When The Markets Speak"
The Crude Necessity: Excerpt From “How To Listen When The Markets Speak”
From “How to Listen When Markets Speak“, the latest book by veteran Lehman Brothers trader and creator of the Bear Traps report Larry McDonald, available now for sale at Amazon and all other book sellers.
“The Crude Necessity”
Excerpted from Chapter 5, “Fossil Fuels Paving the Way to the Green Meadow”
“If Trudeau was here, I’d tell him this coffee is made of oil,” Rafi Tahmazian commented wryly as he poured a cup for each of us. I was sitting with Tahmazian, one of the world’s finest energy asset managers, in his office in Calgary in November 2021. “Machines to grow it and harvest it, vehicles to transport it, more machines to pack it, electricity to roast and grind the beans, heat to boil the water,” he continued. “It doesn’t happen with pixie dust, old pal. It happens with crude oil.”
I could hear emails chiming into his inbox as he spoke. He runs the investment division at Canoe Financial, a $2 billion management firm focused on oil, mining, and natural gas. He wasn’t political in his views, but he’d firmly maintained a single belief for many years: “The entire planet is run by crude oil. Everything we touch. Everything we consume. It’s nothing to do with politics. It’s pragmatism. And this war on the supply side of oil is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen.”
The COVID-19 pandemic changed the oil sector, perhaps for a decade. In 2020, demand dried up like a drop of water on a hot copper pan. The oil markets crashed, sending West Texas Intermediate oil to $0 a barrel. Companies right across the industry switched off their wells, turned off their equipment, and sent their employees home to collect unemployment checks. Even the highways emptied, and Manhattan on a Saturday night didn’t have a car horn within earshot. The Gen Zers and millennials were convinced that the energy future was not in the dirty oil patch anymore, that it would be different somehow, free of carbon emissions in a new electrified world, and the gas-guzzling cars of the last hundred years would be towed, finally, to the junkyard of history. But this was a terrible misjudgment.
When the world reopened in 2021 after the COVID lockdowns, OPEC imposed a firm limit on supply, while U.S. production was slow to recover. Rhetoric about “killing shale” dominated Democratic Party debates in 2020, too, which scared a lot of participants away from the space, especially after Biden won the election. Why invest in a kill zone? Unsurprisingly, oil prices climbed higher and higher. Demand quickly outstripped supply, and inflation started to roll through markets as fleets of airlines turned on their massive kerosene- powered turbofans, diesel cruise ships for three thousand people cast off their lines, and highways steadily reloaded with gasoline-powered cars, buses, and trucks. And this was occurring not just in America but all over the world.
Tahmazian had been around energy investments all his life, and he was born to trade the energy booms and busts. As we spoke, he leaned in intently: “Larry, think of India. Energy use has doubled there since 2000, and it’s going to grow at three times the global average because they’re urbanizing so fast. That’s going to mean a colossal surge in air-conditioning demand from 2021 to 2031. So we are in a climate crisis, and 1.4 billion people make up the fastest-growing swath of energy demand on planet Earth. That’s three to four times faster than the U.S., UK, Germany, and the rest of the developed world. Of the roughly 320 million households in India, fewer than 22 million have air-conditioning units right now.”
As I traveled back home to New York, I couldn’t stop thinking about the supply of energy in the foreseeable future or, rather, the lack of it. With the global population on an upward trajectory, planet Earth will have an unstoppable demand for energy in the coming years. Meanwhile, supply growth is under arrest. Western politicians are driving hard for alternative energies and run the other way if someone suggests a continuation of drilling, fracking, and mining. This has left a gaping chasm between the amount of energy and critical resources needed to continue raising our global standard of living and the amount on tap—a chasm that will only widen in the coming decades.
By my estimate, $2.4 trillion was cut from the fossil fuels and metals capex between 2014 and 2020. Over the same period, the global population grew by 800 million. Today, we might need $3 trillion in additional capital expenditure just to play catch-up. In other words, there have not been nearly enough good old-fashioned investments in coal, oil, gas, uranium, and metals exploration and production, especially in North America.
But aren’t we well on our way towards knocking out oil with wind farms, solar panels, and hydroelectric power? I largely support the push to adopt green energy, but we’re about twenty years too early. Knocking out oil with green energy right now is a mathematical impossibility, especially since some of the most populated countries in the world (such as India, China, and Russia) have no intention of being bound by Western emission standards. If governments really wanted to replace oil as a source of energy on planet Earth, it would currently take a wind farm a little bigger than France, 134 million acres of land. A solar field to replace oil would need to be the size of Spain, at 120 million acres, not to mention that it would need to experience at least 70 percent sunshine for eight hours a day, every day, every year. Now think about the amount of plastic that would be used, the fiberglass, the steel shafts and turbines, the endless maintenance, the millions of batteries and cabling. It simply cannot be done without bankrupting the planet. Maybe one day, over the course of many decades, but not today. Right now the top priority should be keeping the lights on, and keeping the gargantuan global economy rumbling forward in a responsible, low-inflationary fashion.
But an increase in oil supply doesn’t just happen with a snap of the fingers. First, there are multiyear regulatory loopholes to jump through. Then governments need to incentivize the companies to do it, instead of slapping windfall taxes on them. Next, the exploration phase has to be carried out, finding the most oil-rich patches of land to drill. That’s an expensive game. Phase four is moving the equipment, a multimillion-dollar problem. Then comes the hiring of qualified people, and then the drilling, infrastructure, transportation, and logistics. It will take about seven to ten years to flood the market once again with oil and gas after the ESG drive eventually fails. And it will.
As you can see in the above chart, the oil reserves of the majors are in decline. This dynamic is making independent E&P companies attractive acquisition targets. Likewise, the sector has de-levered. There has been far less investing in production, as the large oil companies have been aggressively paying down debt. With the global population growing, energy demand surging, and supply growth under arrest, I believe higher energy and metals prices will be sustained for the next decade. From the COVID lows to the end of 2022, as inflation raged higher, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was up 325 percent, the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) was up 318 percent, the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) was up 260 percent, and the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) was up 260 percent. The oil stocks are still in the early innings, and I predict that in the next few years billions of dollars will flow into these companies.
Juicing Inflation
Energy prices are the root cause of inflation, when you get right down to it. Think of every drop of gasoline and energy used in something simple like our Calgary cup of coffee. Add high oil prices to that, and suddenly that $4 cup of coffee at Starbucks costs $6.
But there’s a second layer to the relationship between energy and inflation. Not only will higher energy costs drive other costs up along with it, but it will make inflation harder to fight. If inflation normalizes in this cycle at 3 to 4 percent instead of 1 to 2 percent as in previous decades, trillions of dollars are misallocated across the investment asset ecosystem, as most portfolios are still massively overweight growth stocks.
Usually, during a time of recession, the prices of energy and oil drop dramatically due to lower demand, which acts as a major deflationary force. But going forward, the price of energy will likely stay relatively high even during recessions. Through chronic underinvestment in the oil and gas industries, the United States and Canada handed over valuable market share to the Saudis, the Russians, and OPEC, giving them way more control over the global price of oil. In a multipolar world, these not-so-friendly players can now coordinate supply cuts during recessions to keep the price high.
If the U.S. had eight thousand drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), we could just ramp up production and steal market share back from them. But we don’t. DUCs are at a ten-year low, and this dynamic sets us up for a longer-term battle with higher and stickier inflation. We saw this during the minor energy crisis in 2022, and it is going to be the norm in the years ahead.
With the endless issues hanging over the global energy markets, you might be asking how an investor can capitalize on this knowledge. And my advice is simple: Get long oil. The energy ETFs XLE and XOP are great places to start, along with Chevron, Shell, and ExxonMobil. In particular, Exxon is interesting because of its massive new reserves in Guyana, right on the northeastern tip of South America. The company has an operating office in Guyana’s capital, Georgetown, with numerous ongoing exploration and development operations offshore. At its Stabroek oil field, in operation since May 2015, it has made significant discoveries, and the company expects production capacity to reach 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027, up from 375,000 barrels in 2022. This implies that in four years Guyana will represent approximately 25 percent of Exxon’s worldwide production.
This chart also highlights several smaller oil and gas producers with an attractive valuation and the potential to be acquired by one of the oil majors.
One way to value a company in the energy sector is to compare its enterprise value (the sum of its debt and its market capitalization) with the value of the oil and gas reserves it has in the ground. This comparison measures what the value of the company is per “barrel of oil equivalent,” which is the oil and the natural gas converted into barrels of oil. The lower a company’s enterprise value is compared with the reserves it has in the ground, the cheaper the company’s valuation is. PDC Energy, for example, is very cheap. Chevron thought so, too: It made an offer for the company in May 2023. (The chart shows PDC’s valuation before Chevron’s offer.)
In 2022, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink penned a letter outlining his vision of a decarbonized future, calling those working to help knock out oil with green energy “phoenixes,” the immortal birds from Greek mythology that rise from the ashes of their predecessors, and suggesting that those who resist the net-zero transitions are “dodos,” a kind of flightless bird that went extinct in the seventeenth century.
The dodos of the future will be those who cling to their ailing growth stocks. The phoenixes will be invested in hard assets and the still-unloved energy stocks. Borrowing costs will be high, the $2 trillion capex hole will take years to plug, and low prices for fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal—will soon be a distant memory.
Much more in the full book
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 21:00 - Virginia Governor Vetos 30 Gun Bills That Would 'Punish' Law-Abiding Citizens
Virginia Governor Vetos 30 Gun Bills That Would ‘Punish’ Law-Abiding Citizens
Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.) took action on 67 bills on Tuesday, including vetoing 30 that he said would “punish” law-abiding citizens and impinge on their 2nd Amendment rights.
“I swore an oath to defend the Constitution of the United States of America and the Constitution of Virginia, and that absolutely includes protecting the right of law-abiding Virginians to keep and bear arms,” Mr. Youngkin said in a statement.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin answers questions from members of the media while campaigning at Piney Branch Elementary School in Bristow, Va., Nov. 7, 2023. (Win McNamee/Getty Images) The Republican governor announced that, in addition to vetoing 30 pieces of gun-related legislation, he had suggested amendments to six and signed 31.
“I am pleased to sign four public safety bills which are commonsense reforms with significant bipartisan support from the General Assembly, and offer recommendations to several bills which, if adopted, will make it harder for criminals to use guns in the commission of a violent act,” he added.
Among the vetoes the governor signed were measures that would criminalize possession of a firearm in a building owned or operated by a public institution of higher education.
One particular bill appeared to target a single individual, the governor noted. House Bill 585 would criminalize home-based firearm dealers who maintain their place of business at their residence within one and a half miles of an elementary or middle school.
“By all appearances, this legislation targets one individual in Prince William County, to whom the Prince William Board of County Supervisors granted a home-based firearms license,” Mr. Youngkin wrote in his veto memo.
A five-day waiting period for gun purchases, championed by Democrat state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam of Loudoun County, was also vetoed.
Another vetoed bill would have banned the import, sale, manufacture, purchase, or transfer of certain firearms and ammunition-feeding devices made on or after July 1.
Among the vetoed bills were ones that sought to prevent the open carrying of some semi-automatic rifles and shotguns in specific public areas. Another bill proposed the creation of safe storage requirements for firearms in homes where minors or people not legally allowed to possess guns reside. Additionally, there was a bill that sought to create a civil penalty for individuals who leave a handgun visible in an unattended vehicle.
Among the bills the governor signed into law were two pairs of identical bipartisan gun-related public safety measures, which garnered broad bipartisan support.
These measures aim to prevent parents from willfully allowing children who pose credible threats of violence to access firearms. Additionally, they prohibit the manufacture, transfer, or possession of an auto sear, colloquially known as a “Glock switch,” that converts firearms into automatic weapons.
One bill the governor signed introduces the possibility of charging parents with a felony under the state’s child abuse and neglect law if they permit a child access to a firearm after being notified of the child’s potential for violence.
Furthermore, Mr. Youngkin announced proposals for amendments to six gun bills, setting the stage for legislative debate when the General Assembly convenes for a one-day session on April 17 in Richmond.
The governor’s proposed amendments to six bills include provisions to prevent firearm transfers to mental health patients, align with federal regulations on serial numbers, set standards for plastic firearms, and mandate parental notification on safe firearm storage.
The vetoes by Mr. Youngkin drew criticism from Democrats, who lack the numbers to overturn them, needing a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
Opponents of the vetoed bills questioned their constitutionality, while proponents argued for tighter restrictions on firearms to enhance public safety.
Mr. Youngkin’s stance on firearms mirrors his campaign rhetoric from 2021, though notably, he did not receive the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.
During his first two years in office, Mr. Youngkin largely avoided gun-related issues due to the divided control of the Legislature. However, with Democrats now in full control after recent elections, dozens of gun-related bills were sent to his desk, prompting these recent actions.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 20:20 - 'Squatter-Squad' Using Home Inspectors And Other Legal Techniques To Send Squatters Packing
‘Squatter-Squad’ Using Home Inspectors And Other Legal Techniques To Send Squatters Packing
You may have noticed an increase in stories involving homeowners in blue states who can’t evict squatters due to various laws that make it extremely difficult to do so.
- Owner of LA mansion taken over by Airbnb squatter ‘from hell’ accuses her of extortion
- Airbnb host’s ‘tenant from hell’ also lived rent-free in an Oakland house
- I lived illegally in a house for 5 years – I took the time to fix it up and sued for legal ownership, now it’s mine
- California’s Housing Crisis Is So Bad, Families Are Squatting Abandoned Homes Just to Survive (Mother Jones, of course)
And more recently, a Queens woman was arrested after trying to evict squatters out of her house.
As Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog wrote in February;
Thanks to online listings, it is easier than ever to identify properties that are vacant, and many states have laws that make it exceedingly difficult to get squatters out once they have settled in. In some cases, squatters are able to live rent free in beautiful homes for months or even years. This is becoming an absolutely massive problems, especially in certain areas of the country. For example, it is being reported that squatters have taken over approximately 1,200 homes in the Atlanta area…
…
In the state of Washington, squatters have taken over an entire apartment complex and have turned it into a den of crime…
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California also has ridiculous laws, and right now “a very sophisticated criminal ring of squatters” is making a ton of money from the Beverly Hills mansion that they have occupied…
Given the recent surge in squatting, a Los Angeles-based group known as the Squatter Squad has been making headlines for their novel approaches to evicting squatters; home inspectors and other legal techniques.
In a viral video from earlier this month, a team of Los Angeles home inspectors can be seen ejecting a group of around a dozen squatters, before entering the home, changing the locks and boarding up the windows, Fox News reports.
“The police are gonna come,” one of the squatters can be heard telling the inspectors in the front yard of a San Fernando Valley home.
“That’s fine,” the inspector replies. “We’re coming in.”
YES, More Of This 👏🏻
In California squatters are taking over people’s properties so this company called Squatter Squad is coming in and REMOVING THEM 🇺🇸
If they don’t want to come out & prove they’re on the lease, they’ll rip the doors off the property and force them out
If… pic.twitter.com/rCR8psO9OS
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) March 22, 2024
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Squatter Squad, which took the video, claims to have been legally removing squatters from property since 2018.
They use various legal techniques, applicable on a case by case basis, to remove people who invade homes and refuse to leave.
“This was a very tricky and complex job,” said Lando Thomas, a Squatter Squad member.
The intruders were under the impression that any entry into the house required a three-day notice obtained through court. However, they were wrong. A building inspection only requires a 24-hour notice and does not have to go through the court, he said. -Fox News
According to Thomas, the intruders thought that any entry into the home required a three-day notice obtained through the court – however they, being idiots, were wrong, as a building inspection only requires 24-hour notice and does not have to go through the court.
“We’re gonna press charges,” one squatter told them.
“That’s fine,” the inspector replied. “Take me to court.”
When the police showed up, they stood in the street and let the inspectors do their work while the squatters packed up their belongings and left.
Police arrived after the squatters called 911 but did not stop the home inspectors from carrying out their work. (Squatter Squad/LOCAL NEWS X /TMX) Success! Until of course George Soros begins funding their lawsuits and California lawmakers ‘work their magic’ for their constituents.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 20:00 - Compound Found In Broccoli Could Help Dissolve Blood Clots And Prevent Stroke
Compound Found In Broccoli Could Help Dissolve Blood Clots And Prevent Stroke
Authored by Allison DeMajistre via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Researchers from the Heart Research Institute (HRI) in Australia have found that a common vegetable eaten by millions every day may be able to prevent and treat a leading cause of death worldwide.
(Teo Tarras/Shutterstock) The study, published in the journal ACS Central Science, shows results from a three-year investigation into how a natural chemical found in broccoli can help dissolve blood clots and improve the action of a common clot-busting drug used to treat an acute ischemic stroke.
Current Stroke Treatment
Every 40 seconds, someone in the United States suffers a stroke. In 2021, strokes accounted for one in every six deaths from cardiovascular disease.
There are two types of strokes: ischemic and hemorrhagic. An ischemic stroke occurs when a blood vessel in the brain is obstructed by a clot, while a hemorrhagic stroke results when a weakened vessel in the brain ruptures and causes bleeding inside the brain. According to the American Heart Association, ischemic stroke accounts for 87 percent of all strokes.
The only drug currently available to treat an acute ischemic stroke is tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), a thrombolytic agent that breaks up blood clots and restores adequate blood flow to the brain. Unfortunately, tPA comes with severe limitations and potential dangers, including bleeding into the brain with up to a 45 percent fatality rate when this occurs.
Xuyu Liu, the study’s lead researcher, who holds a doctorate in chemical biology, stated on the HRI website in 2022: “Current treatments are a double-edged sword—by clearing blood clots, it also means a patient has an increased risk of bleeding in the brain should they need emergency surgery. We are looking for clues in nature to find this magic anti-clotting drug which can work where it’s needed but also still allow patients to have antithrombotic treatments.”
HRI researchers discovered that the natural chemical in broccoli, sulforaphane, may improve the performance of tPA and could lead to newer, safer, and more effective medications for acute stroke.
“We know eating plenty of fresh fruits and vegetables and foods low in saturated fats can help prevent heart disease and stroke, but can some of these same vegetables treat and reverse stroke? I think it can and my team is working to prove it at the molecular level,” Mr. Liu said in the 2022 HRI interview.
Sulforaphane’s Protective Properties
In an Australian radio interview, Mr. Liu said his team began investigating broccoli and other cruciferous vegetables three years ago by screening a library of over 100 natural products from healthy diets to find something with properties that would prevent blood clots in the brain.
Mr. Liu’s background included finding ways to prevent cancer with a healthy diet, but when he transitioned into his current role at the HRI, he decided to study sulforaphane derived from cruciferous vegetables and how it could potentially treat blood clots in the circulatory system.
According to Mr. Liu, sulforaphane isn’t limited to broccoli. In the radio interview, he said that cruciferous vegetables produce sulforaphane as a protective mechanism against insects or other types of destruction.
For instance, an intact piece of broccoli doesn’t contain sulforaphane. It isn’t until it’s chopped or chewed that it undergoes a chemical reaction that produces sulforaphane. Sulforaphane’s antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties are designed to protect the plant, but when ingested by humans, studies have found sulforaphane has numerous anti-cancer and health-protective qualities.
Results and Next Steps
“What we found in a preclinical trial is that the tPA success rate increases to 60 per cent [sic] when the medication is given with the broccoli-derived [sulforaphane],” Mr. Liu said in an HRI interview. “Excitingly, this naturally occurring compound does not cause any signs of bleeding, which is a common side effect associated with blood-thinning agents tested in stroke treatment.”
Preclinical testing showed that administering sulforaphane reduced the formation of blood clots while improving the action of tPA. Initial testing also found that sulforaphane could slow the onset of stroke.
“Not only is the broccoli compound effective in improving the performance of clot-busting medication after a stroke, it could be used as a preventative agent for patients who are at a high risk of stroke,” said Mr. Liu.
Mr. Liu’s next step is to raise funding for human clinical trials with the hope of developing a new preventative and anti-clotting treatment within five years. “This natural product has been used to prevent cancer before, so I think we have a strong rationale in terms of safety and other pharmacological properties,” he said in the radio interview.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 19:40 - In Reversal, Israel Sending Delegation To White House After "Bibi Made A Mistake"
In Reversal, Israel Sending Delegation To White House After “Bibi Made A Mistake”
Israel’s military has stepped up its airstrikes on the southern Gaza city Rafah in the last two days, on Wednesday bombing at least four homes, raising fears that the planned ground assault is imminent, despite the UN Security Council having just issued an official call for immediate ceasefire.
Gaza health officials said that one of these airstrikes killed eleven people from a single family, as cited in Reuters. One local eyewitness, Jamil Abu Houri, described that “The bombing has increased, and they have threatened us with an incursion, and they say that have been given the green light for the Rafah incursion. Where is the Security Council?”
Bombs over Rafah, via Al Jazeera While UNSC resolutions calling for ceasefire tend to be more symbolic than having real immediate impact, the formal resolution definitely ratcheted the pressure on Israel, and created tension with the White House given that it was the US abstention which allowed it to pass in the first place.
As for the timing of a ground invasion of Rafah, regional media has cited Israeli military sources who say it will begin soon after the Muslim fasting season Ramadan is finished:
The pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar daily, citing Egyptian sources who were said to have been in contact with Israel Defense Forces officials, reported that the expected offensive would come after Eid al-Fitr — the three-day holiday that follows Ramadan and ends around April 12 — or in early May at the latest.
The ground incursion inside the last bastion of Hamas in the Gaza Strip would last from four to eight weeks, the sources said, and would be accompanied by an evacuation of the civilian population sheltering in Rafah, which amounts to about 1.5 million people, toward the center of the Strip along specific routes and at specific times, announced to civilians in each area of the city in advance.
The Monday UNSC ceasefire resolution had resulted in PM Netanyahu canceling a top Israeli delegation’s expected visit to the White House this week. The Biden administration slammed the move as an “overreaction”.
On Thursday Netanyahu has reversed course, apparently. “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to send two top Israeli officials to Washington as early as next week for talks about a possible military operation in Rafah,” officials told Axios.
“The Prime Minister’s office has agreed to reschedule the meeting dedicated to Rafah,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced, citing the need for “urgent” discussion on Rafah. According to more from Axios:
A U.S. official told Axios cancelling the trip and the rhetoric around it was “an unnecessary drama on Netanyahu’s part.”
A senior Israeli official agreed and said: “Bibi made a mistake.” She said: “We are now working on a convenient date that will work for both sides.”
🚨🇮🇱 ISRAEL is carrying out a MASSIVE BOMBING campaign on Rafah. So much more that UN ceasefire resolution. pic.twitter.com/Mo9rZzc85W
— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) March 27, 2024
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Starting early this month President Biden had issued a ‘red line’ for the first time over Rafah, warning Israel against attacking the southern enclave which is still packed with over one million internally displaced refugees. Washington has repeatedly called on Israel to facilitate a mass exodus of civilians before any assault takes place. But Israeli officials say the military must go in to eradicate Hamas.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 19:20 - Navigating The Slippery Slope: How Hoover's Interventions Paved The Way For The Great Depression
Navigating The Slippery Slope: How Hoover’s Interventions Paved The Way For The Great Depression
Authored by Vibhu Vikramaditya via The Mises Institute,
Herbert Hoover’s presidency is often mythically mischaracterized as a period of strict nonintervention in the economy. However, it was in fact defined by a series of economic maneuvers that not only deviated from laissez-faire ideology, but also significantly contributed to the onset of the Great Depression. He initiated his term in 1929 with a proactive push by establishing the Federal Farm Board and later the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. These testified to his interventionist approach, aimed at countering economic instability with federal support that ranged from agricultural price supports to protective tariffs and substantial public works investments. These policies failed to grasp the underlying economic frailties that, combined with a long recession in overexpanded agriculture, inadvertently magnified the crisis.
The Long Recession in American Agriculture
World War I, primarily waged in Europe, signaled the decline of the old elites and the end of nineteenth-century liberal economic practices. It fundamentally altered American agriculture because European resources once dedicated to food production had shifted to military needs. This caused a surge in demand for food exports and other essentials from the neutral United States. The beginning of World War I in 1914 ignited a period of economic prosperity for American farmers. This demand led to an increase in prices for various farm products. For example, in Minnesota, the average price of corn per bushel increased from fifty-nine cents in 1914 to $1.30 in 1919, and wheat prices saw a rise from $1.05 per bushel to $2.34. The prices of hogs and milk experienced similar surges.
To fulfill this rising demand, the US government urged farmers to augment their production, and it made credit more elastic. The Federal Farm Loan Act was established by Congress in 1916, introducing twelve federal land banks designed to provide enduring loans for the expansion of farms. Many farmers seized this and similar opportunities, investing in additional land and modern equipment because they expected the economic surge to persist. They invested in land, tractors, and other new labor-saving equipment at interest rates ranging from 5 to 7 percent. By 1920, 52.4 percent of the 132,744 Minnesota farms reporting to the Census of Agriculture carried mortgage debt, totaling more than $254 million.
Thus, after entering World War I in 1917, the US saw significant agricultural expansion, especially in the Midwest’s wheat and corn areas. Minnesota’s land prices doubled between 1910 and 1920 due to high demand, and by 1929, its farmland cultivation had soared to 18.5 million acres. However, following the wartime boom in agriculture, Europe recuperated from the war’s devastation, and postwar relief efforts were required to keep the demand for US agricultural exports—like grains, pork, beef, and dairy—high from 1918 to 1919.
US farmers continued to increase production expecting stable demand and prices, but they were met with a gradual economic decline that plummeted further during the Great Depression. Minnesota farmers’ income dramatically dropped from $438 million in 1918 to a mere $229 million in 1922. It continued to decline, plagued throughout the ’20s as a hangover from the unsustainable wartime boom, finally plummeting in 1932 to $155 million. Grounded in the progressive ethos of the time, Hoover sought to actively intervene in the agricultural economy to bring about stability and prosperity. His belief in cooperation between the government and business sectors served as a fundamental principle guiding his policy initiatives as the secretary of commerce from 1921 to 1928.
Hoover recognized the issues of overproduction and subsequently plummeting prices, but he was oblivious to the role that the government had played in overproduction by encouraging overexpansion. He advanced the idea of cooperative marketing associations in the belief that by banding together to sell their products, farmers could stabilize prices and increase their bargaining power, which would mitigate the influence of middlemen and reduce market volatility. This agricultural crisis saw the US becoming heavily protectionist, with heavy tariff impositions on imports (in 1921 and 1922) to prop up domestic agricultural prices. Every possible action was undertaken to avoid the temporary pain of trimming overexpanded industries, which would have allowed capital, labor, and land to find more profitable uses than agriculture.
This, then, was Hoover’s underlying experience with American agriculture during the Roaring Twenties as secretary of commerce while another sector of the economy, manufacturing and industry, was booming. His experience with agriculture played a determining role in his response to the recession during 1929–30, and it was his actions as the commerce secretary—and misunderstanding the causes of the ills of agriculture—that prepared the ground for the Great Depression. He applied his precedent of dealing with the 1920s crisis in agriculture with an engineered central plan, in the same way as he did during the 1929 crisis throughout the entire economy.
The war had transformed the US into an economic behemoth. It was the sole major nation remaining steadfastly on the gold standard, which attracted a gold influx as global investment shifted stateside. This influx had the potential to stimulate economic expansion and rejuvenate agriculture, yet the Federal Reserve’s nascent policies were also pivotal in shaping this outcome. In the post–World War I period, the Federal Reserve (newly created in 1913) embarked on a strategy of lowering discount rates to facilitate borrowing and liquidity. In the early 1920s, the New York discount rate was cut from 6.5 to 4 percent, a stark reduction aimed at invigorating economic activity. This policy contributed to a significant uptick in the money supply, with an annual expansion rate of about 7.7 percent from 1921 to 1928. The surge in liquidity and easy credit fueled speculative investments, inflating capital goods, stock, and real estate values to unsustainable highs. When the Fed tightened interest rates in 1928 and 1929 to curb speculation, the boom faded, leaving the still-struggling agricultural sector behind.
Setting up the Great Depression
Upon becoming president in March 1929, Hoover launched the Federal Farm Board with $500 million to manage agricultural prices by handling surplus goods—a significant move to aid farmers by aiming for price stability and more reliable incomes. Yet this effort essentially propped up artificially high prices in a sector needing adjustment through brief deflation. Following the 1929 crash, Hoover extended these interventionist tactics to the broader economy, thus replicating the agricultural sector’s stagnation across the entire economic landscape. Hoover subscribed to the wage theory of recessions, which held that the lack of spending power among the workers was the source of the slump and overproduction. In response to the economic crisis, Hoover convened several economic conferences, gathering business and labor leaders to formulate strategies for economic stabilization and recovery.
Central to these discussions was the issue of wages. Hoover strongly advocated against wage reductions, positing that wage maintenance would preserve workers’ purchasing power, thus sustaining demand and preventing further economic decline. The policy faced obvious and significant opposition from business leaders, who argued that wage maintenance exacerbated unemployment by discouraging hiring and straining business finances. Despite the fact that it had always been the norm for wages and prices to fall during recessions, Hoover remained stern and thus precipitated more unemployment as businesses went bankrupt paying artificially high wages.
Hoover responded to rising unemployment and economic stagnation by boosting federal investment in public works, notably speeding up the construction of projects like the Hoover Dam. These efforts sought to generate jobs, stimulate industry, and improve infrastructure. However, despite these ambitious objectives, the public works programs fell short, unable to address the root issues of overexpansion across multiple sectors. In 1930, Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act despite a petition from more than a thousand economists urging him to veto the legislation as it was a misguided attempt to shield US businesses and farmers from international competition through imposing high tariffs on imported goods. Although intended to protect domestic industries during the onset of the Great Depression, it proved counterproductive, exacerbating both deflation and inflation and hindering recovery.
The act’s protectionist approach ironically perpetuated deflation by raising import duties to record levels, stifling trade and economic growth. It also disrupted price adjustments needed for recovery, as the raised import prices led to inflationary increased domestic prices, discouraging consumer spending. Far from promoting economic recovery, the act provoked international retaliation, sparking a global trade war. This retaliation saw US imports and exports nosedive by 66 percent and 61 percent respectively between 1929 and 1932, thus undermining any recovery efforts and leading to a decline in output.
Similar to his efforts in agriculture, Hoover established the Reconstruction Finance Corporation in 1932, marking a significant escalation in federal economic intervention. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation was tasked with providing crucial financial assistance to banks, railroads, and other major industries, aiming to prevent further economic collapse by ensuring these sectors’ continued operational viability. It had the same effect of propping up the artificially inflated capital values of banks, firms, and major businesses that actually needed quick and thorough liquidations, as had occurred in earlier historical downturns.
In conclusion, the onset of the Great Depression was significantly influenced by misdirected government interventions. The agricultural boom and subsequent bust, coupled with Herbert Hoover’s policies—including the establishment of the Federal Farm Board and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation as well as the enactment of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act—distorted economic realities. These actions, intended to bolster the economy, ironically contributed to the very crisis they sought to prevent, showcasing the delicate balance between policy and economic health.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 19:00 - Investigators Probe 'Dirty Fuel' In Baltimore Container Ship Disaster Amid Mid-Atlantic Supply Chain Crisis
Investigators Probe ‘Dirty Fuel’ In Baltimore Container Ship Disaster Amid Mid-Atlantic Supply Chain Crisis
Catastrophic supply chain snarls are materializing in the Mid-Atlantic area after a container ship rammed a 1.6-mile-long bridge at the Port of Baltimore, causing the bridge to collapse and paralyzing terminals along the port.
Before we shed more color on the worsening supply chain issues, a new Wall Street Journal report cites people familiar with the investigation into the crash as saying contaminated fuel could’ve contributed to the container ship “Dali” losing power.
According to a Coast Guard briefing report viewed by the WSJ, Dali’s lights began to flicker about an hour after the ship began steaming down the marine channel out of the Baltimore Inner Harbor.
Breakdown of the multiple power failures on the container ship ‘Dali’ that likely caused the impact with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore today.
[🎞️ Moshe Schwartz]pic.twitter.com/ST5iBXrjxF
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) March 26, 2024
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“The vessel went dead, no steering power and no electronics,” said an officer aboard the ship.
“One of the engines coughed and then stopped. The smell of burned fuel was everywhere in the engine room, and it was pitch black,” the officer said, adding that the vessel didn’t have time to drop anchors before hitting the bridge. Minutes before the crash, officers on the ship issued a mayday call to the Coast Guard.
Source: WSJ Fotis Pagoulatos, a naval architect in Athens, said contaminated fuel could seize up the ship’s main power generators and result in a complete blackout and loss of propulsion.
During a press conference, Jennifer Homendy, chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, said an investigation is underway to review the vessel’s operations and safety logs and black box recorders to determine what happened in the moments leading up to Baltimore’s biggest industrial disaster in several generations.
REPORT: There were no vehicles traveling on the Francis Scott Key Bridge when it fell into the ocean thanks to heroic police officers who jumped into action.
It has now been confirmed that the only people on the bridge when it collapsed was a pothole repair crew.
A total of… pic.twitter.com/U6PZPO8SDG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 26, 2024
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Hours after the incident, the White House and federal government agencies quickly ruled out a cyber attack or industrial sabotage as the source of the ship’s power loss. With an investigation barely underway, it would seem too preliminary to rule out those things. It’s not yet illegal to have an open mind.
Despite legacy media outlets won’t even entertain the slightest possibility of a cyber attack or industrial sabotage, some X users say they aren’t ruling anything out, considering NATO and Russia are on the brink of a major conflict, the Red Sea crisis continues, Hamas-Irasel war rages on, and Sino-US relations have yet to recover fully.
We know that in a matter of seconds, the Dali and its all-Indian crew that rammed the bridge triggered an instant shutdown of the Port of Baltimore that could take weeks, if not months, to restore.
“This is a shut down of a major port, and rebuilding will take a significant amount of time as it is over water,” Nada Sanders, a professor of supply-chain management at Northeastern University, told the WSJ in a separate note.
Sanders said, “We will see the effects domestically and globally in terms of shortages and higher prices for the average consumer.”
Bloomberg Economic Insights shows that the auto, energy, and food industries will be the most affected. Here’s an explanation of the disruption:
- The wreckage from the Francis Scott Key Bridge essentially blocks incoming and outgoing traffic to the Port of Baltimore.
- According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the port ranked 17th in terms of total tonnage handled in 2021. We estimate it intermediates about 2%-3% of US imports.
- By those metrics, the disruption to Port of Baltimore traffic would appear to have minimal impact on the broader US economy. But that most likely understates the full effect.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Port of Baltimore handled about 3% of all East Coast and Gulf Coast imports in the year through Jan. 31. It’s a crucial terminal for European carmakers such as Mercedes-Benz Group AG, Volkswagen AG, and BMW.
Source: Bloomberg It’s also the second-largest terminal for US coal exports, with a shutdown likely crimping shipments to India. And many more terminals will be shuttered…
Source: Bloomberg The 984-foot ship was hauling containers of Chinese-made furniture, appliances, plasticware, and construction machinery.
Source: Bloomberg Expect a localized shortage of these products?
Source: Bloomberg US Customs and Border Protection provides a view into Dali’s cargo.
Source: Bloomberg Why didn’t the State of Maryland or Baltimore City install protective barriers against ship strikes on the Key Bridge? Were woke Democrats in Annapolis too concerned about DEI and burning the state into the ground with reckless spending than care about infrastructure? Yet another failure by Democrats who are asleep at the wheel.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 18:45 - US, Japan To Initiate Huge Defense Treaty Upgrade With Eye On China
US, Japan To Initiate Huge Defense Treaty Upgrade With Eye On China
The United States and Japan are poised to unveil their largest defense treaty revision in decades. The FT has reported that President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are soon to “announce plans to reorganize the U.S. armed forces in Japan to strengthen the development of operational plans and training of the U.S.-Japan at the summit in Washington D.C. on the 10th of next month.”
Crucially the new agreement is expected to invest the three-star commander of the US Forces in Japan with more operational authority. As it currently stands, and following the development of the US-Japan Security Treaty first signed in 1960, the US commander is required to coordinate approval for operations with US Indo-Pacific Command based out of Hawaii.
US Indo-Pacific Command/Flickr All of this comes amid the backdrop of China-Taiwan tensions being continually on the rise, and as North Korea flexes its military might in response to joint US-South Korea drills on the peninsula.
Japan currently hosts an estimated 54,000 US military troops plus another at least 8,000 US civilian contractors. Recently there were fears that a Western troop presence would be expanded in Japan with the proposed opening of a NATO office there, but the plan was nixed after strong protestations from Beijing.
Analyzing the coming upgrade to the US-Japan defense treaty, one regional report explains: “This review responds to criticisms that it is inconvenient for rapid response in case of emergency because of the distance between the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii and the Japan Self-Defense Forces, which are 3850 miles away and have a 19-hour time difference.”
Prime Minister Kishida has made it a theme of the past couple years that Tokyo is committed to making great strides at becoming an unambiguous regional and “strategic leader” as a “security provider in the Indo-Pacific.” However, Japan officials have long emphasized a stronger armed forces primarily for the sake of ‘deterrence’ – something which Washington has encouraged. Naturally, China doesn’t see these developments as merely for deterrence.
President Joe Biden has nominated Air Force Maj. Gen. Stephen F. Jost to take command of U.S. Forces Japan, according to a Pentagon news release Monday.https://t.co/84Q2tSBKqp
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The past two years has also witnessed a flurry of activity between the US and Japan at numerous levels of government especially focusing on an overhaul in the U.S.–Japan defense posture and strategy. There’s also been a plan in motion for a restructuring Marine Corps forces stationed on and around Okinawa.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 18:40 - Baltimore Coal Exports Blocked After Bridge Collapse
Baltimore Coal Exports Blocked After Bridge Collapse
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Baltimore Port’s coal exports are likely to be blocked for weeks after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday, according to a Pennsylvania coal trading firm.
The bridge collapsed early on Tuesday after a cargo ship lost power and slammed into the construction, which crumbled within seconds and will disrupt navigation near the Baltimore port, which is one of the biggest coal export terminals in America.
Baltimore is the nation’s second-largest coal exporting port after Norfolk, Virginia, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2022, about one-fifth of U.S. coal exports left through Baltimore.
The port of Baltimore is also one of the 20 largest ports in the U.S. and handles both coal and petroleum products.
Following the bridge collapse, up to 2.5 million tons of coal exports from Baltimore could be blocked for up to six weeks, Ernie Thrasher, CEO at Pennsylvania coal trading firm Xcoal Energy & Resources, told Bloomberg.
“You’ll see some diversion to other ports but the other ports are pretty busy,” Thrasher added.
“There’s a limit on how much you can divert,” said the executive, whose firm works with several coal suppliers.
Globally, the disrupted exports are unlikely to have a huge impact on coal prices, but many coal cargoes from Baltimore are typically headed for India, so there the impact could be felt along the supply chain, Thrasher told Bloomberg.
At any rate, the bridge collapse has already disrupted coal shipments and delivery times.
For example, rail company CSX, which owns the Curtis Bay coal pier in Baltimore, told Reuters on Tuesday that existing coal customers should expect “potential shipment delays.”
Coal producer CONSOL Energy said vessel access in and out of the CONSOL Marine Terminal, located in the Port of Baltimore, has been delayed. As of Tuesday morning, the company did not have a definitive timeline of when vessel access or normal operations will resume.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/27/2024 – 18:20
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