Today’s News 29th June 2023

• Sweden Allows New Quran-Burning Demonstration Ahead Of NATO Summit
  Sweden Allows New Quran-Burning Demonstration Ahead Of NATO Summit

  Via The Cradle,

  The Swedish government gave approval to organizers of a Quran-burning demonstration outside of a mosque in Stockholm on June 28.

  The decision is expected to draw the ire of Turkey and hinder the Nordic country’s potential NATO membership, as has happened previously.

  

  NATO officials are looking to admit Stockholm into the US-led alliance during the Vilnius Summit in Lithuania next month. Officials have previously clarified that not resolving Sweden’s admission by July would send a dangerous and humiliating message to the security alliance’s enemies.

  Ever since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland have sought to join NATO as a defense mechanism in the event that the war in Ukraine was to hypothetically expand into Europe.

  Acquiring membership would require a unanimous vote from NATO’s members, but Turkiye and Hungary have voted against the Nordic country’s application.

  Ankara has accused Helsinki and Stockholm of harboring members and supporters of the PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey deems as terror organizations.

  At the end of March, Turkey granted Finland eligibility to join NATO. Sweden’s admission is still pending.

  Despite high expectations for Stockholm in relation to the upcoming summit in July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently shot down the prospects of Sweden joining NATO over Stockholm’s failure to uphold several of Ankara’s requirements for joining the security alliance, such as recently permitted supporters of the PKK to demonstrate on the streets of its capital.

  Turkey has previously condemned the Swedish authorities for allowing a far-right anti-immigrant group to burn several Qurans outside of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm earlier this year, which resulted in Ankara stalling its decision to permit the country into NATO. 

  Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson described the act of burning the Quran as “extremely serious” and an attempt to sabotage the nation’s NATO application. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 06/29/2023 – 02:00

• Top US Officials Have "First-Hand Knowledge" Of Secret UFO Program: Rubio
  Top US Officials Have “First-Hand Knowledge” Of Secret UFO Program: Rubio

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has claimed that multiple senior government officials—including Pentagon employees with “high clearances”—are aware of a secret UFO craft crash retrieval program being run by the United States.

  

  The Republican lawmaker made the claims in an interview with NewsNation on June 26, shortly after Air Force veteran and former intelligence officer David Grusch alleged that the Pentagon had discovered dead alien bodies from spacecraft that had crashed.

  “There are people that have come forward to share information with our committee over the last couple of years … I want to be very protective of these people,” said Rubio, who serves as vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

  “A lot of these people came to us even before protections were in the law for whistleblowers to come forward,” Rubio said, adding that many of those claimed to have “first-hand knowledge” of the alleged extraterrestrial retrieval program.

  The Florida Republican alleged that some of the whistleblowers who have stepped forward with similar claims to Grusch are public figures with “high clearances” and “high positions within our government.”

  “We’re trying to gather as much of that information as we can … Some of these people still work in the government. And frankly, a lot of them are very fearful of their jobs, fearful [of] their clearances, fearful of their career, and some, frankly, are fearful of harm coming to them,” Rubio said.

  Rubio’s comments come amid an ongoing investigation—led by House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.)—into the alleged the secret military UFO program. The committee is expected to hold a hearing on the matter soon.

  

  Government Recovering Remains of ‘Nonhuman Origin’

  That probe was launched shortly after Grusch made his claims regarding alleged extraterrestrial discoveries earlier this month in an interview with NewsNation.

  Grusch previously worked at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office and was a member of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) Task Force from 2019 to 2021.

  In the interview, the senior official claimed to have provided Congress and the Intelligence Community inspector general with classified information about secret UAP programs which he said proves that the government has been recovering partial and intact remains of aircraft of nonhuman origin, as well as their occupants, for decades.

  “These are retrieving non-human origin technical vehicles, call it spacecraft if you will, non-human exotic origin vehicles that have either landed or crashed,” Grusch said. “Well, naturally, when you recover something that’s either landed or crashed, sometimes you encounter dead pilots, and, believe it or not, as fantastical as that sounds, it’s true.”

  Grusch stated that he believed it was “totally nuts” after first learning of the alleged program but claimed that over the years, many current and former senior officers had provided him with evidence of the program, including documents.

  

  Pentagon Denies UFO Program Claims

  Despite his claims, Grusch has not yet been able to present any solid evidence.

  At the time, the Pentagon denied Grusch’s claims, with the Defense Department stating that officials had “not discovered any verifiable information to substantiate claims that any programs regarding the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials have existed in the past or exist currently.”

  Asked whether he believes Grusch’s and others’ claims to be genuine, Rubio told NewsNation that he doesn’t find them to be “not credible or credible” because they are simply “beyond the realm of what any of us have ever dealt with.”

  “What I think we owe is just a mature, you know, understanding, listening and trying to put all these pieces together and just sort of intake the information without any prejudgment or jumping to any conclusions,” Rubio said.

  The Republican’s comments come after the Senate Intelligence Committee advanced a bill that would pause funding for any government activities involving “unidentified anomalous phenomena” that have not been “formally, officially, explicitly, and specifically described, explained, and justified to the appropriate committees of Congress” or congressional leadership.

  The legislation also states that funding will not be given for such government activities when they involve recovering “unidentified anomalous phenomena craft or pieces and components of such craft.”

  Additionally, the bill instructs individuals currently or formerly under contract with the federal government with knowledge of such activities to disclose all relevant information to Congress and notes that they will not be subject to a criminal or civil action for doing so.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 06/29/2023 – 00:00

• "Balance-Sheet Recession" Guru Warns Japanification Is Coming To China
  “Balance-Sheet Recession” Guru Warns Japanification Is Coming To China

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

  Richard Koo has become an unexpected celebrity in China these days. All of a sudden, the work of the economist who coined the phrase “balance-sheet recession” to describe the root cause of Japan’s lost decade is highly relevant to what’s happening in China.

  What the Nomura Research Institute economist sees isn’t encouraging: It may take Chinese companies and households many years to cut down debt and restore financial health in a “very painful process.”

  The concept of a balance-sheet recession, which Koo came up with in the 1990s, is simple. After asset markets turn from boom to bust, households and companies need to save to pay down debt. When they do it at the same time, no one spends, which sucks the oxygen out of the economy. In response, the government should step in as the borrower and spender of last resort.

  This week, Koo offered his diagnosis on China. In a speech that went viral on social media, he made a few comparisons between China and Japan’s situation three decades ago. He concluded that the fate of Japanification is highly likely. (The transcript of his speech hasn’t been independently verified, but the view is consistent with his recent interview on CNBC.)

  Richard Koo has been one of my favorite macro thinkers. I have always believed that his thoery on balance sheet recession will prove to be extremely relevant for China one day. Yesterday he gave an extraordinary speech on China’s Japanification risk, below are the main takeaways:

  — Shanghai Macro Strategist (@ShanghaiMacro) June 28, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  He noted that both countries experienced a similar housing boom. Once the bubble bursts, the balance-sheet recession starts. The good news, in his view, is that policymakers in Beijing were aware of the issue early on, which makes it likely they will respond to it more quickly than Japan did.

  

  The bad news is that China faces a bigger challenge than Japan did three decades ago. For starters, China’s economy is more reliant on the construction industry. At 26% of GDP, the size of the sectors are comparable in both countries. But the strength of other Japanese industries, such as auto and tech, softened the blow. Unfortunately, China doesn’t have similar industries that could fill in the void left by the housing slump.

  What’s particularly puzzling to Koo is that China’s deleveraging seemed to have started well before the housing bust in 2020. Corporations have stopped borrowing at times since 2015, suggesting something else has sapped the animal spirits of the private sector. (The timing coincided with the government’s supply-side reform that targeted eradicating overproduction capacities in various industries.)

  

  Also, China is facing greater geopolitical risks. While Japan also had economic frictions with the US in the 1990s, the conflict was limited to the trade sector. In China’s case, a full-blown decoupling with the West would mean the nation could only export to poorer economies that make up just 27% of global GDP, which would hold down its growth.

  What makes it even trickier is that China’s population started to shrink at the same time that the housing industry went from boom to bust. In Japan, the population started to decline nearly two decades after the bubble burst. Throw in regulatory uncertainties and lack of subsidies during the pandemic, and Beijing has a bigger problem on its hands.

  What should Beijing do? Don’t waste time on monetary policies, or structural reforms. Instead, focus all energy on fiscal stimulus to keep the economy going, Koo advised. Meanwhile, complete all the unfinished housing projects “at any cost” to avoid a collapse.

  To end the speech, he said: “I hope Chinese policymakers understand and respond to these challenges, because this might be the last chance for China to reach the living standards of the First World.”

  Coming from the man who arguably understands the subject more than anyone else, this is quite a warning to policymakers in Beijing.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 23:40

• Another Middle-Class Spending Barometer Flashes Red: Rolex Prices Near Two-Year Low
  Another Middle-Class Spending Barometer Flashes Red: Rolex Prices Near Two-Year Low

  On Tuesday, President Biden declared the US economy is “strong” and expects no recession. However, in contrast to his forecast, one barometer of middle-class spending habits is flashing red. 

  The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded watches by value on the secondary market, continues falling from record highs reached in April 2022. Prices are below July 2021 levels, approaching the lowest point in two years. 

  

  “Demand for pricey timepieces from the top Swiss brands has cooled amid slowing economies, higher interest rates, and the crash in cryptocurrencies,” according to Bloomberg. 

  

  Watch buying activity can be used as a barometer of middle-income spending habits. If consumers have more money, they will increase purchases of discretionary items like wristwatches. We have also pointed out that diamond prices have plunged. 

  

  We also noted in late May that LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton warned about a slowdown in US growth. At the time, we asked: Did The Luxury Bubble Just Burst?

  So contrary to the president’s claims about a strong economy, mid-tier consumers are dialing back spending on luxury goods. 

  Goldman’s Rich Privorosky recently pointed out, “Something is not quite adding up on the consumer” and asked, “Have we just run out of excess savings and are we returning to replenishing savings?”

  So putting all this together, consumers continue to shun secondary watch markets, pull back on diamond spending, and reduce Gucci handbag purchases. This comes as many consumers have racked up high amounts of credit card debt while paying some of the highest interest rates in decades, depleted savings, and endured two years of negative real wage growth due to the inflation storm. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 23:20

• Trump Plan To Bypass Congress And Starve 'The Deep State'
  Trump Plan To Bypass Congress And Starve ‘The Deep State’

  Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

  Sources close to former President Trump say he has a plan for keeping Congress from ever again forcing him into “disgraceful” and “ridiculous” spending situations. If he returns to the White House, Trump will seek to resurrect authority that Congress stripped from the presidency almost a half century ago. 

  

  What President Nixon squandered, his campaign promises, Trump will restore, namely the impoundment power. “A lot of you,” the former president told a New Hampshire crowd Thursday, “don’t know what that is.” Indeed, few now remember it. 

  Impoundment, if restored, would allow a president, in theory, to simply refuse to spend appropriations by Congress. More than just an avenue to cut spending, Trump sees that kind of authority as key to starving, and thus crushing, the so-called “deep state.” 

  But such a move would fundamentally alter the balance of power, and any effort to restore the long-forgotten authority virtually guarantees a protracted legal battle over who exactly controls the power of the purse. Trump welcomes that fight. Some budget experts believe he won’t get anywhere.

  Regardless, advisors close to the former president tell RealClearPolitics they are drawing up plans to challenge the 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act in court, and if that fails, to lean on the legislature to repeal it. The latter would require passing a law to surrender power, something lawmakers are loath to do. 

  Congress already went to war with another president who had expansive views of his own authority. And Congress won. 

  Inflation in the 1970s, the Nixon White House complained, was the result of a profligate “Credit Card Congress.” The California Republican warned Capitol Hill not to spend in excess of $250 billion. When his warning was ignored, Nixon simply refused to spend the appropriated money. A rebuke from the Supreme Court followed when the president impounded funding for environmental projects. But weakened by Watergate, Nixon eventually signed legislation effectively surrendering a power that had been exercised from the presidencies of Thomas Jefferson to Lyndon B. Johnson. 

  Russ Vought, Trump’s last director of the Office of Management and Budget, calls the concession of impoundment power “the original sin” that ensured “the executive branch no longer plays a meaningful role” in the appropriations process. Vought told RCP in an interview that the power of the purse has become “caricature,” where rather than “setting ceilings,” Congress now sets “spending floors.” 

  Hence, Trump’s “unhappy” signature on multiple multi trillion-dollar spending bills. 

  Trump promised he would “never sign another bill like this again” before putting his signature on a “crazy” $1.3 trillion spending bill in 2018. Two years later, he signed another omnibus bill, this one worth $1.4 trillion, that he called “disgraceful.” Both times, Trump justified voting for the bloated bills conservatives loathed by pointing to increased military spending. 

  Restoring impoundment authority, thus giving presidents an option to curb spending beyond just the veto, current Trump campaign and former Trump administration officials tell RCP that was part of the plan for a second term that never came. 

  The former president said he believes the 1974 law that gutted impoundment is unconstitutional, and if returned to the White House, would govern accordingly. 

  “Yes, there’s the effort to have it overturned in courts. Yes, there is the legislative effort, but when you think that a law is unconstitutional,” Vought told RCP, the administration ought to look “to do the bare minimum of what the courts have required,” and “to push the envelope.” 

  Trump did something like this, exercising what Vought called “impoundment-like authorities,” when he froze nearly $400 million in foreign aid to Ukraine, even though the funds were congressionally appropriated. The Government Accountability Office later said that in doing so, Trump violated the law. He was impeached by the House over a phone call to Ukrainian President Zelensky concerning the money. 

  Trump’s OMB disputed the GAO ruling at the time, saying the administration was simply its apportionment authority to spend the money according to the most efficient timetable. 

  “The reason why there wasn’t an impoundment was because we did not have the authority just to pocket the money and not spend it,” Vought recalled, saying that if a new paradigm was in place, the administration “potentially would have had the ability to go further and pocket the money.” 

  Trump believes impoundment would be “a crucial tool” in his fight with the administrative state. “Bringing back impoundment will give us a crucial tool with which to obliterate the Deep State, Drain the Swamp, and starve the Warmongers,” he said in campaign video first obtained and reported by Semafor. “We can simply choke off the money.”

  His campaign pointed RCP to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency within the Department of Homeland Security, an entity that House Republicans allege has been involved in censorship of Americans, as a prime example of where dollars could be impounded. 

  But even some conservatives have their doubts. Kevin Kosar, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said that when it comes to cutting spending appropriated money after the fact, there “is a limited amount of wiggle room.” 

  “The idea that a president is going to achieve any sort of significant savings or reduction in the size of the administrative state by exercising impoundment authorities is patently ludicrous,” Kosar told RCP. 

  The policy wonk agrees that the reform Nixon signed into law, mandating a complex and cumbersome budgeting process, seldom works. But without repealing and replacing that law, he said,  “a president flat out refusing to spend money that was clearly appropriated for a particular purpose, saying he just doesn’t want to do it, pretty much would be grounds for impeachment.”

  Linda Bilmes, an assistant secretary at the Department of Commerce during the Clinton administration, agrees that the current budget process “has become so dysfunctional that it is very ripe for reforms.”

  Now a lecturer at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, she points to the partisan gridlock and numerous government shutdowns that are a feature of the current process. “The number of shutdowns in the entirety of U.S. history before 1974,” Bilmes said in an interview with RCP, “was zero.”

  Congress has been kicking around ideas for some time on how to reform the way they spend taxpayer money. Lawmakers consistently fail to pass individual appropriation bills, opting instead to approve spending all at once with a single bill, usually at the end of year and the last minute.

  Even if the process is reformed, however, Bilmes said that “the basic premise of the law, which is that the Constitution provides Congress with the ultimate authority, is very unlikely to change.”

  She added that although she disagrees with the idea that reducing the national debt requires gutting the Impoundment Act, there is a recent precedent for taming runaway spending. Bilmes pointed  RCP to the agreements hammered out between Bill Clinton and then-Speaker Newt Gingrich in the 1990s. That is possible again. In theory.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 23:00

• From Sea To Shining Sea: How Does Shipping Work?
  From Sea To Shining Sea: How Does Shipping Work?

  Earth’s surface is covered by 71% water, connecting every corner of the world, so it’s no surprise that 80% of global trade is carried by ship. But how does it all work?

  This is part one of Visual Capitalist’s The Shipping Industry: Plotting a Course for the Future, a two-part series for their sponsor Seaspan Corporation about the current state and future of global maritime trade.

  

  

  

  A Bird’s Eye View of Shipping

  The shipping industry provides low-cost transportation options for a wide variety of goods and products, from raw materials to finished consumer products. Briefly, the process goes something like this:

  1. Order received at overseas factory

  2. Order placed in 20-foot container and transported to port

  3. Cargo loaded onto a ship

  4. Cargo crosses the ocean

  5. Cargo arrives at destination

  6. Cargo is offloaded

  7. Cargo clears customs and makes its way to the customer

  In 2022, nearly 11 billion tons of goods took a similar journey, according to data collected by the United Nations in their annual Review of Maritime Transport.

  Now that we have some idea of how the process works, let’s take a closer look at some of the pieces that keep world trade flowing, starting with the global shipping fleet.

  From Tanker to Titan

  The first thing to know about the fleet is that it’s big. In 2022, it numbered 102,899 ships over 100 gross tons, including tankers, bulk transports, and containerships. And it’s growing, and not just in sheer numbers. 

  Containerships in particular have been steadily growing in size since a converted WWII T2 tanker made history in 1956 by strapping 58 containers to its deck, as ship owners chased greater economies of scale. Today’s containerships can carry upwards of 20,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). 

  Too Many Ships, Not Enough Cargo?

  Ship-breaking on the other hand, the process of disassembling ships for parts and raw materials, has stalled. 

  

  Over 2021 and the first three quarters of 2022, the number of containership breakdowns plummeted. With more newbuilds on the way and the World Trade Organization revising global trade growth projections downwards, there might not be enough containers to go around.

  Port Volumes Are Up, but So Is Performance

  And that could be good news for shipping prices, which hit record highs during the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

  At the beginning of 2022, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks ocean freight charges on a collection of routes, hit a record 5109.6, nearly five times the pre-pandemic average. 

  Prices have since returned to Earth, as ports worked to clear their backlogs. Ports processed 857 million TEUs in 2021, up 7% year-over-year. The latest Container Port Performance Index, which tracks total hours per ship call, showed that 172 ports improved their scores in 2022.

  It wasn’t all sunshine and roses, however, especially for North American ports. The bottom three ports on the Index were Long Beach, CA; Vancouver, BC; and Savannah, GA.

  All I Ask Is a Tall Ship and a Star to Steer Her By

  A lot has changed since 1902, when John Masefield wrote that oft-quoted line to describe the call of the sea. For example, the center of global trade has shifted eastward to Asia, where 9 of the 10 busiest container ports are located.

  Seaspan, a worldwide leader in independent management and ownership, is getting ready for the next era of shipping by adding 58 new state-of-the-art vessels over this year and next.

  Stay tuned for the next installment of this series, The Shipping Industry: Plotting a Course for the Future, where we look at how shipping companies like Seaspan are preparing for a low-carbon future.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 22:40

• 5 Revelations From New Report On Jeffrey Epstein’s Death
  5 Revelations From New Report On Jeffrey Epstein’s Death

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A new watchdog report detailed an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s death.

  

  Here are five takeaways.

  Epstein’s Phone Call

  Epstein was found dead in his cell in the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York on Aug. 10, 2019. The day before, he was allowed to make an unrecorded, unmonitored call, which went against Bureau of Prisons policy.

  Records reviewed by the U.S. Department of Justice Office of Inspector General, the watchdog that conducted the probe, show that Epstein dialed a local 646 number after claiming he was going to call his mother.

  Epstein’s mother died in 2004.

  The manager of the unit in which Epstein was being held let Epstein make the call.  The manager told investigations that he dialed a number Epstein provided. A male answered. The manager then gave the phone to Epstein, who was quoted as saying: “Hey, how are you doing? How’s everything?”

  Epstein spoke with the person for about 20 minutes.

  Investigators identified the person on the other end. They sought an interview with the person, who was not identified in the report, but the person declined. A lawyer representing the person said that the person was in Belarus during the call. If true, the call was connected through a local number.

  According to the lawyer, Epstein discussed how the media had been reporting on him. The call also went over “personal things such as books, music, and hygiene while incarcerated,” according to the report.

  “According to the representations by Individual 1’s counsel, Epstein told Individual 1, ‘They are trying to keep me safe,’ and that his case would take a little longer than he originally thought,” the report stated. “He told Individual 1 he loved her, to be strong, and that he would not be able to call her again for another month.”

  Not Monitored

  The manager said he left after handing the phone to Epstein because his shift was over. The manager acknowledged he should have placed the phone on speaker and monitored the call, especially after a male answered, contradicting Epstein’s claim of calling his mother.

  The manager said three individuals were nearby, the officer in charge of the unit for the evening, another officer, Tova Noel, and a senior officer specialist.

  The evening officer said that he was present when the call was made but that he did not overhear the conversation. The officer said that during the call, officers were distracted by unspecified actions by another inmate. Noel said she did not monitor the call. The specialist said he did not witness the call.

  A fourth officer identified by Noel as being around at the time told investigators he did not recall Epstein being in the area or making a call that evening.

  The manager told investigators that he allowed Epstein to make an unmonitored call because he thought Epstein had been unable to obtain documentation to use the normal phone system.

  That was false, investigators found. Epstein had obtained the documentation.

  The Bureau of Prisons northeast regional director said that Epstein making the unmonitored call was concerning because “we don’t know what happened on that phone call.” The call “could have potentially led to” Epstein’s death, “but we will never know,” the director said.

  Prosecutions Declined

  Misconduct by officers, including forging records, led to the death, investigators said.

  Noel and Michael Thomas, for instance, falsified records to show they’d been making required rounds when they actually did not check on Epstein after 10:40 p.m. on Aug. 9, 2019.

  Noel and Thomas entered a deferred prosecution agreement after admitting to falsifying records.

  U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres dismissed the charges in January at the request of prosecutors.

  The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, which brought the case, declined to prosecute other employees despite investigators finding they falsified records, the inspector general’s office said.

  Those records included documents on inmate counts and inmate checks on the day before and the day of Epstein’s death, the report stated.

  The attorney’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

  

  

  Moment Epstein Was Discovered

  Officers finally began checking on inmates as they delivered them breakfast around 6:30 a.m. on Aug. 10, 2019. That’s when they discovered Epstein.

  Thomas knocked on Epstein’s door but there was no response, prompting Thomas to open it, Noel told investigators. Thomas said that Epstein had an orange string around his neck that was tied to a portion of the bunkbed, leaving him suspended. He ripped the string from the bed and lowered him to the ground before starting to perform CPR.

  “Breathe, Epstein, breathe,” Thomas was quoted as saying by Noel. He was also quoted as saying, “We’re going to be in so much trouble.”

  Noel said she did not enter the cell and that Epstein looked blue, was shirtless, and did not have anything on or around his neck.

  After a lieutenant responded to the area, Noel said, Thomas told her, “we [messed] up.”

  The lieutenant told investigators that after arriving, Noel said that “we didn’t do rounds at 3 a.m. and 5 a.m.” while Thomas said “we didn’t do the rounds. We messed up.” A technician who helped deliver food in the aftermath of the death told investigators that inmates said: “You weren’t making rounds. You killed him.”

  Suicide Determination

  The New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner determined, following an autopsy, that Epstein killed himself by hanging.

  Pathologist Dr. Michael Baden, after observing the autopsy, said that the evidence was more indicative of homicide. Epstein had tried killing himself about two weeks prior, according to his cellmate, and Epstein was briefly placed on suicide watch.

  The medical examiner told the Office of the Inspector General that Epstein’s injuries were consistent with suicide by hanging and that there were no wounds that one would expect if Epstein had been defending himself against another person.

  “Epstein did not have marks on his hands, broken fingernails or debris under them, contusions to his knuckles that would have evidenced a fight, or, other than an abrasion on his arm likely due to convulsing from hanging, bruising on his body,” the report stated, citing the examiner.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 22:20

• Trump Would Bar 'Child Sexual Mutilation In All 50 States'
  Trump Would Bar ‘Child Sexual Mutilation In All 50 States’

  Former President Donald Trump told an audience at a Faith and Freedom Coalition event on Saturday that he would sign a law barring transgender surgeries for children.

  

  “Something else I find hard to believe that I have to even say,” said Trump. “It’s so ridiculous. It’s so horrible and so ridiculous. I will keep men out of women’s sports.”

  “And I will sign a law prohibiting child sexual mutilation in all 50 states. Prohibited,” he continued, adding: “And on day one I will reinstate the Trump ban on transgenders in the military. Because a warrior should be focused on crushing American enemies, on being strong, on having the image of being strong.”

  “They have to be powerful. They have to be strong, especially when you see what’s happening in the world today, not catering to radical gender ideology.”

  “I will sign a law prohibiting child sexual mutilation in all 50 states. And on day one I will re-instate the Trump ban on transgenders in the military.”
  — President Trump

  Watch👇the entire speech: https://t.co/m7dgSE7fnT pic.twitter.com/UpVYAvZ0HG

  — Real America’s Voice (RAV) (@RealAmVoice) June 25, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsTrump also slammed critical race theory, and vowed to cut federal funding to any school which promotes it, or any ‘inappropriate political, sexual or racial content.’

  “Can you believe this? Can you imagine saying this 10 or 15 years ago? I will fight for parents’ rights,” Trump told the crowd, adding “I will fight for the direct election of school principals by the parents, the parents of the school. If any principal is not getting the job done, the parents should be able to fire them immediately and select someone who will.”

  Likewise, Trump vowed that he “will not give one penny to any school that has a vaccine mandate or mask mandate from kindergarten to college.”

  More via The Epoch Times;

  During his 2016 campaign, Trump rarely focused on social issues and instead targeted illegal immigration, taxes, manufacturing, and growing the economy. On the other hand, his chief rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—who is polling about 30 points behind Trump—has often focused on social issues as governor of Florida, including signing a bill earlier this year that would prohibit teachers to instruct or discuss sexual orientation or gender issues with small children.

  About a dozen Republican-led states have passed laws or rules that bar transgender medical procedures and drugs for minors, and around a dozen other states are considering other measures. Around 20 states have also banned biological males claiming to be transgender women from competing in women’s sports.

  Earlier this year, Trump said at a National Rifle Association (NRA) event that he would use the federal government to investigate transgender medical procedures and drugs, while accusing top U.S. officials of “pushing the transgender cult” on younger Americans, while “persecuting Christians” and “demonizing patriots.”

  Also at the Faith and Freedom event, Trump stated that he is “proud to be the most pro-life president in American history,” adding, “I took historic action to protect the unborn.”

  “As your President, I will continue to stand proudly for pro-life policies just as I did for four strong years … we cannot be afraid to take on the Democrat extremists, we can’t be afraid. We have to be strong and powerful,” he remarked. “That’s why when I’m reelected, I will continue to fight against the demented late-term abortionists in the Democrat Party who believe in unlimited abortion on demand and even executing babies after birth.”

  At that same conference, Trump touched on the Department of Justice’s charges that were brought against him for allegedly mishandling classified documents. He pleaded not guilty to those counts earlier this month.

  “Every time the radical left Democrats, Marxists, Communists, and fascists indict me, I consider it a great badge of courage,” he told supporters, referring to the case.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 22:00

• Dr. Peter Hotez's Funding Linked To Controversial Chinese Military Scientists At Wuhan Lab
  Dr. Peter Hotez’s Funding Linked To Controversial Chinese Military Scientists At Wuhan Lab

  Authored by Kanekoa The Great via Kanekoa News (emphasis ours),

  

  In a groundbreaking revelation, it has come to light that Dr. Peter Hotez, an esteemed vaccine researcher, has been entangled in a web of funding, collaboration, and research with Chinese military scientists potentially involved in the development of COVID-19. The intricate tale weaves together key Chinese military virologists and culminates in the smoking gun evidence surrounding COVID-19’s notorious furin cleavage site.

  At the center of this narrative lies Dr. Hotez, a distinguished professor at Baylor College of Medicine, who secured a substantial research grant (R01AI098775) from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) led by Dr. Anthony Fauci. This grant, amounting to over $1 million per year, supports Dr. Hotez’s project titled “RBD Recombinant Protein-Based SARS Vaccine for Biodefense,” with Dr. Shibo Jiang listed as a Principal Investigator.

  Dr. Shibo Jiang, a professor at Fudan University, boasts an impressive academic background. After completing his Master’s degree from the People’s Liberation Army’s Guangzhou First Military Medical University (广州第一军医大学) and his Medical Doctor degree from Xi’an Fourth Military Medical University (西安第四军医大学微), he pursued postdoctoral training at Rockefeller University in New York from 1987 to 1990.

  

  

  Subsequently, he held various positions at the New York Blood Center’s Lindsley F. Kimball Research Institute until 2010, including Head of the Viral Immunology Laboratory. Since then, he has served as a professor at Fudan University’s Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology in Shanghai, China.

  During his time in the United States, Dr. Shibo Jiang also acted as a visiting professor at several prestigious People’s Liberation Army (PLA) universities, including the First and Fourth Military Medical University, the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS), and Southern Medical University (formerly known as the First Military Medical University). Despite his collaboration with the Chinese military, he received research grants totaling over $20 million from NIAID under Dr. Fauci’s leadership between 1997 and 2016.

  Professor Jiang, a member of China’s renowned Thousand Talents Plan, actively collaborated with PLA scientists on numerous scientific papers supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the First Military Medical University, and the AMMS. However, concerns have been raised regarding the nature of these collaborations, as a 2020 FBI report indicates that such talent recruitment plans “usually involve undisclosed and illegal transfers of information, technology, or intellectual property detrimental to U.S. institutions.”

  

  Together with Dr. Zhou Yusen, a distinguished PLA virologist and fellow AMMS alumnus, Professor Jiang co-invented multiple U.S. patents and published numerous scientific papers on SARS and MERS coronaviruses, often with the support of NIAID funds. Dr. Yusen, the former director of the PLA’s AMMS Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity at the Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, filed the world’s first patent application for a COVID-19 vaccine in China on February 24, 2020, just a month after the country acknowledged human-to-human transmission.

  Why do five publications funded by Dr. Peter Hotez’s R01AI098775 grant list Dr. Zhou Yusen as a co-author?

  “Dr. Peter Hotez was deeply enmeshed with Chinese military scientists at the Wuhan lab. Read this article. Just… wow.”

  –@RobertKennedyJr https://t.co/z1oR9EyOgh pic.twitter.com/aA3cIdrsCU

  — KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) June 27, 2023

  This discovery raises suspicions that the Chinese military may have been working on a vaccine even before officially notifying the World Health Organization about the outbreak.

  

  

  

   

  

  Interestingly, concerns surrounding the origins of the COVID-19 virus intensify when examining the furin cleavage site. Dr. Richard Ebright, a respected molecular biologist, and laboratory director, highlights the unique nature of the furin cleavage, stating that:

  “SARS-CoV-2 is the only member of the SARS-related betacoronavirus group that contains a furin cleavage site. The SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site exhibits unusual codon usage, and the SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site is located at a position that previously has been used to engineer coronaviruses having enhanced infectivity.”

  Further compounding the intrigue, Dr. David Baltimore, a renowned US virologist and co-discoverer of reverse transcriptase, expresses his belief that the furin cleavage indicates a laboratory origin for the virus, stating, “When I first saw the furin cleavage site in the viral sequence, with its arginine codons, I said to my wife it was the smoking gun for the origin of the virus.”

  With an esteemed career, a Nobel Prize, and extensive scientific expertise, Dr. Baltimore’s observations carry significant weight. Of additional concern is Professor Jiang’s expertise in inserting furin cleavage sites into coronaviruses.

  

  

  Moreover, Professor Jiang and Dr. Lanying Du, another prominent Chinese virologist funded by Dr. Fauci and Dr. Hotez’s R01AI098775 grant, have collaborated on various scientific papers with the PLA’s AMMS and the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The untimely death of Dr. Yusen, who fell from the roof of the Wuhan Institute of Virology within three months of filing the patent, further fuels suspicions surrounding the origins of COVID-19.

  Dr. Du, the widow of Dr. Yusen, published at the PLA’s AMMS before migrating to the United States, where she joined Professor Jiang at the New York Blood Center’s Lindsley F. Kimball Research Institute. Remarkably, a U.S. Senate report reveals that the data referenced in Dr. Yusen’s patent could not have been generated as quickly as claimed, suggesting that he and his team may have started developing a COVID vaccine as early as November 2019.

  Furthermore, at least five publications funded by Dr. Fauci and Dr. Hotez’s grant list Dr. Zhou Yusen, a People’s Liberation Army officer central to the COVID-19 origin controversy at the Wuhan lab, as a co-author. These findings raise concerns about the connections between Dr. Fauci, Dr. Hotez, Dr. Jiang, Dr. Du, Dr. Yusen, and the Chinese military scientists potentially involved in the origin of COVID-19.

  

  

  

  

  Additionally, both Professor Jiang and Dr. Du have published scientific research for the AMMS, which was added to the U.S. government’s Foreign Entity Blacklist in 2021 due to its use of “biotechnology processes to support Chinese military end uses.” Dr. Hotez’s involvement in this complex situation becomes evident when examining his subcontracted funding for these scientists connected to the People’s Liberation Army and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, particularly in the field of artificially inserting furin cleavage sites into coronaviruses.

  During a February 2021 interview, Dr. Hotez discussed their collaboration, stating, “About ten years ago, we got approached by a group at the New York Blood Center led by Shibo Jiang and Lanying Du that had a pretty good idea for coronavirus vaccines.

  

  Notably, in 2013, Professor Jiang and Dr. Du, along with their Chinese military colleagues, demonstrated the artificial insertion of a furin cleavage site similar to the one found in the COVID-19 virus. This study was funded by the Chinese government and a private Chinese biotech company, while Professor Jiang and Dr. Lanying also received funding from Dr. Fauci and Dr. Hotez.

  A study published by Dr. Shibo Jiang, Dr. Lanying Du, Dr. Shi Zhengli, and Dr. Ralph Baric, an American scientist considered a pioneer in gain-of-function research on coronaviruses, demonstrated the introduction of a human protease cleavage site into the spike protein of coronaviruses, enabling cross-species transmission to humans. Notably, this aligns precisely with the furin cleavage site found in the S1/S2 junction of SARS-CoV-2.

  While Dr. Hotez criticizes congressional hearings on the origins of COVID-19, stating that they are “inviting fringe elements to testify and promote outlandish conspiracy theories,” even warning that investigation will “undermine the fabric of science in America,” it is crucial to examine the mounting connections between Dr. Hotez, Dr. Fauci, Dr. Jiang, Dr. Du, and Dr. Yusen with Chinese military scientists, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the suspicious furin cleavage site. This evidence demands a thorough investigation to uncover the truth about the origins of the COVID-19 virus, a truth that holds profound implications for people worldwide.

  

  .

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 21:40

• Bud Light To Permanently Lose Nearly 25% Of Its Business: Analysts
  Bud Light To Permanently Lose Nearly 25% Of Its Business: Analysts

  After self-destructing in the name of signaling virtue, Bud Light is looking at a permanent loss of nearly 25% of its business, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Mitch Collett in a recent Barron‘s article.

  “We believe recent underperformance implies a permanent reduction in ABI’s U.S. business,” writes Collett, referring to Anheuser-Busch InBev, the parent company of Bud Light. “Our proprietary survey data suggests these headwinds are likely to fade even if we do not expect the U.S. business ever to fully recover from its current challenges.”

  Data gathered by Deutsche Bank suggests that 24% of Bud Light consumers no longer purchase the brand, while another 18% are buying less of it.

  “Taken together, our survey data shows that Bud Light as a brand faces significant challenges—particularly with older consumers. However, we believe the forward-looking data sets imply that the challenges will at least partially fade,” wrote Collett, who actually upgraded shares of AB InBev to “buy” from “hold,” with a new price target of $65.92, up from $64.83.

  That said, another analyst, Evercore’s Robert Ottenstein, said Bud Light will “permanently lose” between 15 and 20% of its volume, after which “declines will resume at about the average rate of the prior 10 years.”

  “Budweiser will also see a similar pattern, with consumers lost in 2022 not coming back,” he continued in a note highlighted by Yahoo Finance in which quotes Collett as saying Bud Light and Anheuser-Busch are “at the end of the tunnel” of the controversy.

  In May, HSBC downgraded the stock to “hold” over its “Bud Light crisis,” adding that there may be “deeper problems” at the company.

  “Is ABI’s leadership getting the brand culture transformation right? It’s mixed,” he said. “At Ambev, we think the answer is ‘yes’; in the U.S., we think it’s ‘no.’ The way this Bud Light crisis came about a month ago, management’s response to it and the loss of unprecedented volume and brand relevance raises many questions.”

  

  More via the Epoch Times;

  Since its ill-fated promotional exercise in early April with Mulvaney, a transgender TikTok influencer, Bud Light has seen its weekly sales decline. Recent data from Bump Williams Consulting and Nielsen IQ show that for the week ending on June 10, Bud Light’s year-over-year sales have declined by 26.8 percent, representing the worst week so far.

  And for the month of May, Constellation Brands-owned Modelo Especial was the No. 1-selling brand in the United States, outpacing Bud Light, which fell to No. 2, industry data show.

  Bump Williams, chief of the eponymous consulting company, told the New York Post on June 21: “This was a tough week for Bud Light and other beer brands” that are owned by Anheuser-Busch, including Budweiser. Sales of Budweiser were down by 10 percent, Natural Light was down by 2.3 percent, and Michelob Ultra was down by 2.4 percent.

  Anheuser-Busch’s CEO, Michel Doukeris, told investors last month that he believes that online “misinformation” was the primary reason for the sales numbers, and he asserted that it was just “one can” that was produced with Mulvaney’s face on it and appeared to deny that there was a partnership. However, Mulvaney posted on social media that there was a partnership.

  The can drew the ire of multiple celebrities and conservative influencers on Twitter. Some suggested that consumers boycott the brand in a bid to send a message to corporations who may be pursuing a “woke” leftist agenda.

  An executive with Anheuser-Busch recently spoke out about the boycott as he got an award during the Cannes Lions International Festival in southern France.

  “It’s tough to see the controversial and divisive debates that have been happening in the U.S. in the last couple of weeks involving lots of brands and companies, including and especially Bud Light,” Anheuser-Busch’s global chief marketing officer, Marcel Marcondes, told the Cannes Lions International Festival, according to an Ad Age report. “It’s tough exactly because what we do is all about bringing people together.”

  Marketing Pivot

  With summer officially starting last week, Bud Light pivoted and launched a new promotional campaign. But that, too, was derided on social media, with some demanding that the company apologize for its promotional efforts with Mulvaney.

  Responding to the latest ad, podcast host Liz Wheeler wrote on Twitter that the company was trying to whitewash the past two months of controversy.

  “None of this is funny until & unless you apologize for using Dylan Mulvaney—a man pretending to be a woman—as your spokesperson. It’s insulting that you think an ad about summer will make us forget our principles. The boycott continues,” she wrote in a post.

  Anheuser-Busch didn’t respond to a request from The Epoch Times for comment by press time.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 21:20

• America's First State Trans Representative Arrested For Child Pornography
  America’s First State Trans Representative Arrested For Child Pornography

  Authored by Jackson Elliott via The Epoch Times,

  New Hampshire police arrested transgender state representative Stacie-Marie Laughton for distributing child sex abuse images.

  

  A mug shot of Stacie-Marie Laughton, a transgender-identifying man. (Courtesy of Nausha, New Hampshire’s police department)

  Laughton, a Democrat, was America’s first transgender state representative. Born male, he went through sex change procedures to resemble a woman.

  This incident isn’t Laughton’s first brush with the law. Police arrested Laughton on Nov. 12, accusing him of violating a court order prohibiting him from posting on social media about another individual. According to court documents, prosecutors also seek to impose a suspended sentence of up to nine months he was given last year.

  In that case, police accused Laughton of texting 911 “for no emergency or police related matter” a dozen times between May and July 2021. Prosecutors dropped nine of the 12 charges. On the others, courts ordered him to perform community service, participate in a peer support program and remain on good behavior.

  

  A transgender flag sits on the grass outside the U.S. Capitol building in Washington on May 22, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

  In 2012, Laughton, a New Hampshire state-level representative, was the first openly transgender person elected to a state legislature.

  But he never took his seat, resigning after a prior felony conviction raised questions about his legal ability to serve.

  New Hampshire politicians can only run for office after “final discharge” from prison. When Republicans noted that Laughton was still outside prison only on condition of good behavior, he resigned.

  In 2020, Laughton ran for office as a state representative and won. He won again in 2022.

  But at the time of his most recent arrest, Laughton wasn’t in office in his third Hillsborough district. He resigned in December 2022 after facing stalking charges.

  The Epoch Times reached out to Laughton for comment but received none by publication time.

  On the Nausha, New Hampshire, police records website, the press release describing his arrest wasn’t available and displayed an error message.

  An officer told The Epoch Times that the website had been hacked and had problems displaying criminal charges.

  The police supplied records that referred to Laughton with female pronouns as they charged him with four counts of child pornography distribution.

  “On Tuesday, June 20, 2023, Officers responded to a local facility for a juvenile matter. They spoke with reporting parties that indicated Laughton distributed sexually explicit images of children,” the police report reads.

  Daycare Worker Arrested

  The police also sent The Epoch Times a press release on the arrest of 38-year-old Lindsay Groves on child pornography charges.

  “Due to the nature of the investigation members of the Homeland Security Investigations were notified,” the police press release reads.

  Groves is a Hudson, New Hampshire, resident.

  According to a press release by the Massachusetts Attorney General, authorities arrested Groves for taking sexually explicit pictures of children at Creative Minds, a daycare in Tyngsborough, Massachusetts.

  Groves, a daycare employee, sent these pictures to “an individual with whom she was previously in an intimate relationship,” according to the press release. However, the press release never names this individual.

  

  A mug shot of Lindsay Groves. (Courtesy of Nausha, New Hampshire’s police department)

  “Due to Groves’s case now being investigated federally, I cannot comment on the connection between the two cases,” Sergeant John Cinelli of the Nashua Police Department told The Epoch Times.

  However, New Hampshire city of Nashua police public information officer Sgt. John Cinelli told The Union Leader that Laughton’s arrest stemmed from the same investigation that led to Grove’s arrest.

  In office, Laughton sponsored and cosponsored a range of bills that included legalizing marijuana, decriminalizing psychedelic mushrooms, and prohibiting anti-union activities by employers.

  Along with Democrats Rep. David Cote and Rep. Fred Davis, Laughton won office in 2022 in his three-seat district with 26.4 percent of the vote.

  Voters also chose Laughton in the 2012 state election and 2020 state election.

  “Democrats in the State House will always work to protect a women’s (sic) right to an abortion, push to adopt domestic renewable energy so we can lower energy costs and fight to keep public money in public schools so every student in New Hampshire has the opportunity succeed,” Laughton’s House Democrats campaign page reads.

  From Prison to Preaching

  Recently, Laughton was ordained as a minister, according to his YouTube page.

  GetOrdained.org shows Laughton affiliated with Buddhism, Methodism, New Age, Oneness Pentecostalism, Pentecostalism, Protestantism, Rastafarianism, Spiritualism, Tibetan Buddhism, Unitarian Universalism, and Universal Life Church.

  It’s not clear what Laughton’s position on child transgenderism is. On his Facebook page, he links to a video from Caitlyn Jenner, a man who says he is a woman.

  In the video, Jenner condemns the “radical rainbow mafia.”

  “Government’s basically trying to take over our children,” Jenner said. “This is an issue between the parents, God, and their doctor.”

  

  Caitlyn Jenner arrives at the Elton John AIDS Foundation Academy Awards Viewing Party on Sunday, in West Hollywood, Calif., on March 27, 2022. (Willy Sanjuan/Invision/AP)

  Experts and activists have voiced concern over men who enjoy dressing as women receiving access to children.

  Jon Uhler, a therapist who treats sex offenders, said that in his experience if a man feels comfortable performing sexual dance in a skimpy women’s outfit for children, he’s likely extremely sexually deviant and “poses a significant risk to women and children.”

  Some transgender-identifying men experience autogynephilia, a feeling of sexual arousal by thinking of themselves as female.

  According to government surveys, nearly 3 percent of men experience this feeling, and increasing numbers of these men identify as transgender.

  “Autogynephilia exemplifies an unusual paraphilic category called ‘erotic target identity inversions’, in which men desire to impersonate or turn their bodies into facsimiles of the persons or things to which they are sexually attracted.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 21:00

• CNN's Tapper Warns Of RFK Jr's "Dangerous Misinformation", Rebukes NewsNation For 'Platforming' Live Townhall Meeting
  CNN’s Tapper Warns Of RFK Jr’s “Dangerous Misinformation”, Rebukes NewsNation For ‘Platforming’ Live Townhall Meeting

  Democratic challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will face voters tonight during a live town hall on NewsNation at 9pmET on affiliated broadcast television stations (due to be replay open on that site later in the evening).

  

  Having flexed his muscles during the week, now is his turn to flex his policy mind – something he has been doing on various podcasts (mostly more right-leaning since the establishment left has done their best to discredit Kennedy at every stop).

  

  He will take questions in front of a live audience comprised of voters in partnership with the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. Voters in the key states of South Carolina and New Hampshire can also question the candidate.

  Kennedy’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination has garnered support from as many as 20% of Democrats, but Republicans viewed him more favorably at 40%, according to recent reports.

  Polling this month from Quinnipiac University found that among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, 70% support Biden, 17% support Kennedy, and 8% support Marianne Williamson.

  “This is a moment where RFK Jr., who first got a lot of attention for having a famous name, and then got a lot of attention for some pretty wild positions that he has taken on a number of issues – including vaccines, including the war in Ukraine, including the CIA – and he’s generated a lot of buzz. This is the moment where he is going to face, what I would submit, is probably the toughest test of his candidacy so far, which is answering real voter’s real, practical questions about his candidacy and doing it in front of a national television audience,” NewsNation Political Editor Chris Stirewalt told KOIN 6 News.

  As Peter Barry Chowka notes, Kennedy has been attacked and largely shunned by the mainstream media but in at least a half dozen live interviews on FOX News, including the one with Tucker Carlson, he has expressed a message that suggests he could potentially draw support from across the political spectrum.

  Kennedy, who declared his candidacy in April, is one of two Democrats (the other is self-help author Marianne Williamson) to challenge President Joe Biden for their party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

  His comments, including describing the aim of his campaign as “end[ing] the corrupt merger of state and corporate power,” might resonate with a variety of constituencies.

  Why is RFK Jr on NewsNation and not on a left-leaning mainstream media outlet?

  Simple – here’s ‘fake-dossier-peddling’ Jake Tapper explaining that Kennedy should not have a platform its because of his “dangerous ideas”.

  Here’s one colleague’s (unedited) take (that we thought worth sharing) on Tapper’s (and likely all of mainstream media’s) attitude and self-immolation:

  “If RFK’s ideas are dangerous a real journalist would be able to draw attention to what RFK has wrong.  Jake Tapper just admitted he isn’t a journalist, and CNN does NOT disseminate objective information.

  The real threat to democracy is Jake Tapper failing to do his basic job. Tappers job isn’t to preemptively draw conclusions about presidential candidates.

  I don’t give a fuck what Tapper thinks, his job is objective arbitrator. If he wants to work on behalf of the “re-elect” Biden campaign he should have to declare that and we can stop pretending CNN does “news”.“

  As AmericanThinker’s Thomas Lifson noted:

  I think NewsNation is very smart to feature RFK, Jr. as it tries to establish itself as a full-fledged rival to CNNMSNBCFOXNEWSMAX.

  RFK, Jr. already has a fan base that will want to tune in and see him, and I suspect most have never watched NewsNation.

  They may like what they see and come back now that they have searched for and found it on their cable/satellite/streaming feed.

  NewsNation is trying to establish itself in the middle of the political spectrum, accessible to both sides. Featuring RFK, Jr. is a good way to highlight that orientation.

  Kennedy is also catching up to Newsom in the betting markets…

  

  Where Kennedy stands on key issues…

  (via NewsNationNow.com)

  Vaccines

  Kennedy pushes back against critics that say he has anti-vaccine views.

  During a June 23 town hall hosted by WMUR-TV, Kennedy said if he were president, he would mandate pre-licensing safety trials for vaccines and “allow parents to make of their minds about whether they want to use vaccines for their children.”

  “What I’ve said is I’m pro-science and pro-safety and we ought to subject vaccines…to at least the kind of rigorous placebo-controlled trials that are mandated for every other medicine,” Kennedy told WMUR.

  Vaccines are tested extensively by manufacturers before the FDA issues a license.

  A vaccine being developed for distribution in the United States goes through two separate research phases before an initial three phases of clinical trials, according to the Food And Drug Administration. Those trials test the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. By the time it reaches the third phase of initial clinical trials, the vaccine is generally given to thousands of people, and researchers compare those who received the vaccine against those who received a placebo.

  In some cases, the FDA requires additional post-market studies or clinical trials for continued research.

  The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says immunization is the best protection against certain illnesses. Annually, tens of thousands of people get sick from diseased that could be prevented by vaccines.

  Foreign Policy

  Kennedy has made peace a priority when it comes to foreign policy, promising to “end the proxy wars, bombing campaigns, covert operations, coups, paramilitaries, and everything else that has become so normal most people don’t know what’s happening.”

  He’s specifically vowed to end the war in Ukraine. His plan to stop the fighting includes offering to withdraw U.S. troops and missiles from Russia’s borders and convince Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

  “UN peacekeepers will guarantee peace to the Russian-speaking eastern regions,” Kennedy said on his campaign website. “We will put an end to this war.”

  Border

  Kennedy visited the nation’s southern border earlier this month, calling it a “dystopian nightmare.”

  The presidential candidate described seeing hundreds of people cross the border – a seemingly “hopeless” situation he said was “created by the federal government, that local people are being forced to hold the bag on.”

  “It’s extraordinary,” Kennedy told NewsNation. “It’s kind of the best part of America and the worst part at the same time.”

  During WMUR’s town hall, Kennedy said he’s “not a big fan of Trump” or his border wall. After speaking with officers patrolling the border, however, he said physical barriers are necessary in some areas with high-density populations and advocated doing more to keep migrants and U.S. citizens safe from cartels.  

  Economy

  Kennedy has said he will enact policies that favor “small and medium businesses” and break up “too-big-to-fail” banks and monopolies.

  “When crisis strikes, bail out the homeowners, debtors, and small business owners instead,” Kennedy said on his campaign site.

  He also believes healthcare is a key economic issue, and has vowed to make existing services available to all, including “alternative and holistic therapies that have been marginalized in a pharma-dominated system.”

  One wonders just how long MSM can continue ignoring RFK Jr?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 20:40

• Agendas Run Rampant Over Science In The Biden Administration
  Agendas Run Rampant Over Science In The Biden Administration

  Authored by Michael Chamberlain via RealClear Wire,

  “Disinformation and misinformation is the bona fide enemy of public health,” Dr. Anthony Fauci stated in a recent interview. But he also said, “We should embrace differences in opinion.”  

  

  What if misinformation is coming from the public health officials themselves? And lately, government has not seemed to embrace differences in opinion, preferring instead to smother contrary opinions. The resulting erosion of trust in the officials in charge – less than half of Americans trust the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on COVID – could be more damaging than any “misinformation” found on social media. 

  Far too often in recent years, when science gets in the way of the government’s agenda, science is disregarded, ignored, or undermined. The CDC, Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and National Institutes of Health (NIH) have appeared to make policy decisions and public representations inconsistent with science — including their own science.  

  Science is undermined when scientists and the institutions that apply science do not follow the findings of unbiased studies. And science is undermined when those institutions do not make a good faith effort to collect data and let the data dictate a conclusion. When “science” gets tunnel vision for a result, it ceases to be science. 

  The Biden administration came into office promising to restore science as the driver of policy. Led by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the administration adopted strict scientific integrity standards at federal agencies. So far, though, the results don’t comport with the rhetoric. 

  After documenting a number of alleged violations of these standards, Protect the Public’s Trust (PPT) filed a scientific integrity complaint with OSTP. The complaint was based on our tracking of numerous instances of the government either ignoring scientific findings, manipulating data, or misrepresenting data to make the science conform to policy objectives.  

  Each example is eye-opening. In one case, the CDC claimed that vaccinations offer higher protection from Covid-19 than a previous infection. This talking point, however, was based on data cherry-picked from a single state within a fifty-state study. So, the CDC’s talking points were possibly taken from an outlier, not the entire dataset. Worse, the cited study did not even make a comparison between those with immunity solely from vaccination and those with immunity from prior infection, as the CDC’s public statements claimed. Yet high-ranking officials at the CDC and other components of the Department of Health and Human Services touted these misrepresentations unequivocally.  

  It’s not just misrepresentations to the public. Actual policy decisions undermined science. In August 2022, the CDC endorsed COVID-19 vaccinations for children aged six months to four years, saying that a “lower risk of symptomatic Covid-19 was observed with vaccination compared to placebo.” But it also noted that severe adverse events were “more common in vaccine recipients.” To make matters worse, the claim that vaccinated children were at lower risk of showing symptoms was based upon bad science. “You can inject [children] with it or squirt it in their face, and you’ll get the same benefit,” one high-level CDC official declared. So, the CDC made this recommendation without proof of its efficacy, while acknowledging that the children were at heightened risk of severe adverse events.

  The prioritization of policy agendas over science is not isolated to the pandemic. Protect the Public’s Trust’s research indicates that the FDA appears to have breached its obligation to uphold scientific integrity in its decision-making about vaping. We believe that the FDA knowingly disseminated scientifically unfounded statements about vaping products that were contrary to the FDA’s own research. Also ignoring its own research, and without proper scientific justification, the FDA overruled its own scientists’ recommendations to authorize menthol vapes.  

  The Biden administration often decries “misinformation” about anything contradicting its own narratives, but it appears to be one of the worst purveyors of misinformation. Citizens can’t trust a government that misrepresents the results of studies, or prevents the collection of, or even intentionally hides, data. The American public should expect that its science-based institutions and most prominent spokesmen follow the science and use the scientific method in reaching policy decisions. Unless these institutions and their leadership change course, public trust will continue to plummet.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 20:20

• $200 Billion In SBA Covid Relief Money Went To Fraudsters, Inspector General Reports
  $200 Billion In SBA Covid Relief Money Went To Fraudsters, Inspector General Reports

  The multifaceted toll of government mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic grows ever larger.

  Last week brought another grim report on learning loss among children victimized by needless school shutdowns. On Tuesday, we learned that fraudsters scooped up more than $200 billion in Small Business Administration (SBA) Covid-19 relief money, according to a report from the SBA’s Office of Inspector General. 

  

  That represents a whopping 17% of the $1.2 trillion dished out by the SBA via Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The knowledge of major fraud in the SBA programs isn’t new, but the latest estimate of the damage is well higher than previous estimates.  

  One passage in the OIG report strikes a strong “I told you so” tone, with the SBA taken to task for ignoring the OIG’s warnings: 

  “Office of Inspector General (OIG) reports issued very early on warned of the importance of a strong internal control environment to mitigate fraud risk… 

  [However,] the agency weakened or removed the controls necessary to prevent fraudsters from easily gaining access to these programs and provide assurance that only eligible entities received funds.”

  The report offers examples of various types of fraud. One “sprawling conspiracy” centered on claims submitted for 1,300 fake businesses; its masterminds stole $140 million and the OIG said the estimate could rise to $625 million. 

  In another episode, a female US Army Chief Warrant Officer at Fort Stewart, Georgia teamed up with several other crooks to “scam the system 150 times over, securing $3 million for herself and those involved in the conspiracy,” the reports says.

  The OIG says its investigations have thus far contributed to 803 arrests, 529 convictions and the recovery of $30 billion, with tens of thousands of leads still being worked. 

  

  The SBA accused its own watchdog of wildly overestimating the fraud, saying its own math suggests about $36 billion on fraud. Looking far more focused on defense than accountability, the agency also endeavored to claim that 86% of its fraud estimate took place while Trump was still in office. 

  The SBA OIG attributed $136 billion of the fraud to the EIDL program, which provided long-term, fixed-rate, low-interest loans to small businesses. Another $64 billion in fraud hit the PPP, which dished out loans to small businesses, individuals and nonprofits that were “affected” by the pandemic.  

  “About 1.6 million EIDL loans worth $114 billion are either past due, delinquent or in liquidation as of May, according to the report. More than 69,000 of these loans worth $3.2 billion have been written off. And more than 500,000 PPP loans have defaulted” — CNBC

  The SBA was just one of many government patsies hit with major fraud during the Covid-19 welfare orgy. In September, the Department of Labor OIG said some $45.6 billion in unemployment insurance was devoured by thieves whose handiwork included using the Social Security numbers of 205,766 dead people. 

  The Department of Agriculture was hit by one of the largest single scams, with more than 40 people linked to a Minnesota non-profit called Feeding Our Future charged with plundering $250 million from a program meant to feed needy children during the pandemic by operating upwards of 250 fake meal-assistance locations. 

  We all pay the price of the government’s Covid-relief incompetence, as the hundreds of billions of stolen money was created by the Federal Reserve, sapping everyone’s purchasing power and imposing what is ultimately a stealth tax with no maximum rate. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 20:00

• Tucker Carlson Dares To Ask "Why Exactly Are We At War With Russia?"
  Tucker Carlson Dares To Ask “Why Exactly Are We At War With Russia?”

  “Why exactly are we at war with Russia?”

  

  Those are the verboten words that Tucker Carlson to utter at the start of Episode 7 Of his Tucker on Twitter series where he highlights the irony that the so-called ‘war for democracy’ is actually enabling dictatorship and tyranny.

  With nuclear extinction a possibility and 1000s of lives and billions of dollars already wasted, “what’s the point” he asks, “are we really doing this so that the Biden family can repay its debts to the oligarchs that financed their beachhouse.”

  “Thankfully” the former Fox News star explains, “we have an answer.”

  “The war against Putin and for Ukraine is in fact a war for democracy.”

  Sounds familiar?

  “Democracy must prevail” exclaims Nancy Pelosi as Carlson offers bipartisan examples of warmongers pushing for ‘democracy’ and all the military-industrial complex enrichment that comes with it.

  Carlson further mocks the rhetoric surrounding the war as a fight for democracy, highlighting the irony of supporting Ukrainian President Zelensky, who suspended democracy in his own country.

  “we are currently fighting a war for democracy on behalf of a leader who just casually announced he’s happy to end democracy and our democracy and supporting leaders have no problem with that“

  

  In fact, the Biden administration continual support for Ukraine despite Zelensky’s disregard for democracy, implies that their motives are questionable.

  He argues that during wartime, politicians become powerful and can justify any action, including silencing political opponents, leading to a potential erosion of democracy.

  Carlson suggests that those in Washington, including Republicans, support Biden’s stance on Ukraine because ending the war would threaten their power.

  He concludes by speculating on the future of Joe Biden, pointing out his age-related decline and potential implications for the Democratic Party, suggesting that Gavin Newsom may be a potential successor.

  Watch the full episode below:

  Ep. 7 Irony Alert: the war for democracy enables dictatorship. pic.twitter.com/tk7aOZ4H6n

  — Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) June 28, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Full transcript below:

  Hey it’s Tucker Carlson, you may have found yourself wondering recently as the world slides closer to nuclear Annihilation than any time in human history why exactly are we at war with Russia.

  It seems like there’s a pretty significant downside to this particular foreign policy decision, starting with economic collapse and ending potentially with Extinction so is there a good reason we’re doing it so many innocent young people have been killed so many hundreds of billions of dollars have been wasted some of them from the U.S treasury so what’s the point are we really doing this so the Biden family can repay its debts to the oligarchs who finance their beach house in Rehoboth.

  We’re doing it so our government can continue to lie about its illicit bio labs in Eastern Europe so that flabby losers like Toria Newland and Tony Blinken can feel like they’re doing something important with their sad empty lives.

  Really honestly there’s got to be a better reason for waging this the most pointless war of all.

  What is it.

  Well thankfully we have an answer: the war against Russia ladies and gentlemen the war against Putin and for Ukraine is in fact a war for democracy.

  Watch and recall the motive the president has said many times “we’re focused on what we can do to support Ukraine’s effort to fight for their democracy”.

  “Democracy must prevail. The Ukrainian people are fighting the fight for their democracy and in doing so for ours as well.”

  “Assisting and helping Ukraine win this fight for democracy and freedom and of course Ukrainian president zielinski understand that what’s at stake in Ukraine is bigger than just his Nation it is literally a battle for freedom and democracy themselves.”

  “They are showing the world what an existential fight for democracy looks like.”

  “President Zelenky and the Ukrainians have changed the course of history for the better and we unequivocally are with the Ukrainian people in their fight to remain a sovereign democracy.“

  Unequivocally with the Ukrainian people to remain in democracy it’s a bipartisan view democracy must Prevail.

  You just heard noted democracy expert Nancy Pelosi say the daughter of the mobbed up mayor of Baltimore as Pelosi puts it the Ukrainian people are fighting the fight for their democracy and for ours as well that’s right for ours as well without Ukrainian democracy in other words we can have no democracy here if the ukrainians aren’t free.

  Neither are we we must make sure they can vote in Kiev so we can continue to vote in Kansas City.

  It’s really that simple and yet tonight we regret to tell you that we have a problem it looks like they’re not going to be able to vote in Kiev anymore and no for once it’s not Putin’s fault.

  Democracy in Ukraine seems to be suspended by the world’s foremost democracy Advocate himself Field Marshal zielinski.

  Watch:

  “If we win” he says “we’ll let people vote otherwise no you vote” and we feel like it because ultimately we’re completely in charge and make all the rules.

  Your job is to obey or be punished.

  That’s our version of self-government.

  Self means me – I’m the government now.

  That’s not just any autocrat that’s our chief Ally in the war for democracy.

  This is the guy who just announced he’s like did you cancel next year’s elections.

  So you’ve got to wonder what the Biden Administration thinks of this – we can’t possibly continue to support zielinski, that guy, after he said that can we because in a clip less than 30 seconds long he just blew up our entire rationale for supporting his side in the war.

  So we can’t support him.

  Oh of course we can and we will.

  Here’s Joe Biden from yesterday reaffirming America’s unequivocal support for Ukraine no matter what happened in Russia “we the United States should continue to support Ukraine’s defense and its sovereignty and its territorial integrity”.

  So to recap we are currently fighting a war for democracy on behalf of a leader who just casually announced he’s happy to end democracy and our democracy and supporting leaders have no problem with that in fact they’re strongly for it.

  Shocked?

  You shouldn’t be.

  Of course they’re for it. You should have seen this coming.

  Wars for democracy always cancel democracy in the process – that’s why our leaders love them and they all do it – even The Virtuous leaders Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus, the British government under Winston Churchill through an entire opposition party into prison and let them rot for the duration – in some cases with their families.

  So in a war for democracy you can do anything.

  Imagine what a man might do who has fewer principles.

  If that man say ran Ukraine he might seize churches arrest priests ban all criticism of himself disappear his political opponents and that’s happening.

  Just last month zelinski threw a man called Gonzalo Lira into prison indefinitely for the crime of daring to write about the Ukrainian government in unflattering ways.

  Now what’s interesting what separates this from other such cases is that lira is an American citizen, so Joe Biden who was quite a bit of SWAT as they say in Ukraine could have freed Gonzalo Lira within hours, but he didn’t. He didn’t want to – he didn’t say a word about it – he remains in prison tonight.

  So that makes you wonder what’s the real motive here when normal people see War they see death and destruction, sadness and suffering; but that’s not what demagogues see – they understand it differently they know that War means power mostly for them.

  During wartime everything they do can be justified – war is the gravest of all emergencies – imagine the coveted lockdowns times a thousand plus drones.

  Once War breaks out politicians become Gods with the power of life and death. So in a peaceful democracy you have to debate your political opponents in public and that’s tiresome but in a war for democracy you can just throw them in jail or have them executed. You can see that many in Washington are looking forward to that moment and that may be why they so fervently support Joe Biden – even many Republicans – against a potential opponent – the only opponent who opposes the war in Ukraine.

  If you were to end the war their power would evaporate.

  Last week a whistleblower produced WhatsApp messages from Hunter Biden proving that at the very least his father knew about his influence peddling businesses abroad and probably participated in them “I’m sitting here with my father” Hunter Biden wrote to his Chinese Partners demanding money as much as anything reported about the bidens over the last several years this was The Smoking Gun.

  There it is right there in the message that would have been enough to a normal president it would have been more than enough to keep a normal president from running for office again but had virtually no effect on Joe Biden.

  Most media Outlets ignored it completely or tried to spin Biden’s relationship with his son as some kind of moral Victory “the real meaning of the hunter Biden Saga as I see it” wrote Nick Kristoff of the New York Times “isn’t about presidential corruption but is about how widespread addiction is and about how a determined parent with unconditional love can sometimes reel a child back.”

  He actually wrote that and if you doubt it you should know that view was common.Here’s the take from ABC “the hunter Biden story, the Scandal, the this, that, it’s also the story of a Father’s Love and Joe Biden has never and will never give up on his son Hunter and will never treat him lesser than and so he is a father first take it or leave it.“

  So whistleblower produces a text message showing that Joe Biden was in the room with his son when his son was selling influence to an enemy power the Chinese government and ABC’s take on it Joe Biden is a father first take it or leave it.

  What accounts for a response like that?

  Well that’s the way you talk when you’ve got nothing to fear from an upcoming presidential election – you don’t even bother to think of an excuse for your candidate because you don’t need to. Your country has electronic voting machines – Joe Biden got 81 million votes in 2020 and you’re pretty sure he can do it again.

  In fact you know he can you’re not worried but actually they should be a little worried

  The people who control Joe Biden – Susan Rice and the rest – know they can continue to run our government, writing the press releases, formulating the policies, and they can do it effectively forever, as long as Joe Biden gets dressed in the morning, and of course that’s their strong preference.

  These are fervent opponents of change but the one thing these people cannot control is aging.

  Joe Biden is old he’s 80 now he will be 85 at the end of the next term.

  People imagine that old age is a long predictable progression from Acuity to permanent unconsciousness but often that’s not at all how it actually works.

  When old people start to slide they tend to Slide fast.

  Joe Biden has begun that descent.

  Here he was yesterday and here’s what she wrote to me and I quote you can imagine my joy she called them right away and the next day they sent someone out to survey her yard as Beth wrote this is the best thing that’s happened in Rural America since the rural electrification act for electricity to farms in the 30s and 40s end of quote.”

  End of quote you weren’t supposed to hear that – Joe Biden read the stage directions out loud –  that’s like eating the garnish that comes with your entree you’re supposed to know not to do that.

  Joe Biden no longer does in a year or two he will be gone completely and there will be no hiding it at that point the Democratic party will face a secession problem.

  If Joe Biden is re-elected next year and then forced to leave office during his term due to disability or death that means Kamala Harris will become president of the United States and nobody wants that not even her husband.

  In real life nobody likes Kamala Harris.

  That’s not an attack on her in fact it’s possible to feel pity for someone who’s so universally reviled. It is instead an observation of unchanging physical reality like gravity or photosynthesis nobody wants Kamala Harris to be president no one will benefit if she becomes president so logic suggests there’s going to be a change.

  It’s going to have to be somebody else and whoever that person is is going to have to enter the race soon before the election after Biden drops out.

  Who could that person be? We don’t know obviously this is all just guessing but we do know whoever that is we’ll have to have two essential criteria he’ll have to be as shallow ruthless and transactional as Joe Biden is and he’ll need to have flattery skills that are so polished and advanced they’d be considered Superior even in the Saudi Royal Court and there’s only one man in modern America who fits that description Gavin Newsom the governor of California and perhaps not coincidentally Joe Biden’s new closest friend.

  “I am here Mr President” Newsom told Biden at an event that they did together last week. “I am here as a proud American as a proud Californian mesmerized by not just your faith and your Devotion to this country and the world we’re trying to build but by your results by your action by your passion by Your Capacity to deliver.”

  I get mesmerized by you Joe Biden – imagine saying that as a compliment you couldn’t do it.

  Few human beings could do it but Gavin Newsom had no problem at all those words rolled right off his Fork tongue. He never stopped smiling so if you’re looking for the leader of the coup there he is right there she’s in Kennedy’s motorcade.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 19:55

• Why AirBnB Owners Are About To Be Forced Property Sellers
  Why AirBnB Owners Are About To Be Forced Property Sellers

  Authored by Nick Gerli via Reventure Consulting,

  Many Airbnb owners will soon be forced to sell their properties, resulting in a housing bust that could be on par with the 2008 Subprime Crisis in some cities.

  

  These Airbnb owners are getting ready to sell because of “Airbnb bust”, a downturn in the short-term rental market that started in the second half of 2022, with Airbnb operators in some cities facing a 50% decline in revenue. These declining revenues are the result of a slowdown in post-pandemic travel demand to go along with a massive increase in Airbnb supply, trends which are now causing many Airbnb operators to lose money on their rental.

  I believe these losses will cause a wave of distressed selling from Airbnb operators in 2023 and 2024, particularly in cities where:

  1) revenue has crashed the most, and

  2) Airbnb supply increased the most

  If you’re a homebuyer or real estate investor it’s important to understand the exposure your city and neighborhood has to the Airbnb crash, particularly the timing and depth of the downturn. Because when it all shakes out, I believe that there will be some great buying opportunities for homebuyers and investors across the real estate spectrum.

  So, without further ado, let’s dive into the data.

  (Note that when I refer to “Airbnb” in this article, I am referring to the broader short-term rental market, which includes listings found on Airbnb, VRBO, Booking.com, and other travel sites.)

  65% more Airbnbs than Homes for Sale in 2023

  But before getting into the city-specific data, it’s important to understand the broader national trends. Most notably, that the number of Airbnb rentals in America has skyrocketed from less than 200,000 seven years ago to nearly 1 million in 2023 according to data from AllTheRooms.

  At the same time, the number of homes Listed For Sale has plummeted, dropping from roughly 1.2 million prior to the pandemic to less than 600,000 today according to data from Realtor.com. The result is that there are currently 65% more homes listed for rent on Airbnb than listed For Sale.

  

  The rise in Airbnb rentals was caused by 1) investors buying up houses to rent out short-term and 2) existing homeowners deciding to list their houses on Airbnb instead of selling them. A double whammy, one-two punch that has sucked inventory out of the US Housing Market.

  50% Crash in Airbnb Revenue reported in some Cities

  But there are now signs that this trend of increased Airbnb listings might be coming to an end as the market reaches saturation in 2023, with Airbnb’s CEO warning of a “booking slowdown”. At the same time, vacation rental management companies reported a 13% drop in revenue per property in the first quarter of 2023.

  Clearly, something is up, with the deluge of Airbnb supply over the last several years now intersecting with a recessionary slowdown in travel demand. A cocktail which is leading to a collapse in revenue for Airbnb operators across America.

  The collapse is most notable in the Southwest and Mountain West areas of the country, where Airbnb revenue per listing is down 40-50% YoY. With owners in cities such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver, and San Antonio taking the hardest hit according to data from AllTheRooms.

  

  But the declines weren’t isolated to these areas. Of the 182 counties in America with the most short-term rental listings, revenues were down in 179 of them (98%), with the average county experiencing a 29% decline in revenue per listing comparing the three-month period from March to May 2023 to the previous year.

  Phoenix is ground zero for Airbnb Bust

  The epicenter of Airbnb bust is undoubtedly Phoenix, AZ, a market that is now plagued with a huge glut of short-term rental supply, with the number of Airbnb rentals in Maricopa County increasing by 500% over the last seven years.

  Much of that listing growth has come in the last 15 months, as a downturn in the Phoenix housing market pushed many owners to list their properties on Airbnb instead of selling them. The result was that Airbnb supply increased from 10,000 in early 2022 to nearly 18,000 today.

  

  At the same time, For Sale listings on the Phoenix housing market have plummeted, dropping from an average of 14,000 prior to the pandemic to 7,800 in May 2023.

  This has caused the short-term rental Supply Ratio in Phoenix, a metric calculated by dividing Airbnb listings in by homes For Sale. The resulting ratio in Phoenix is 2.3x, which indicates there are 2.3 listings on Airbnb for every 1 house listed for sale.

  

  The historical Supply Ratio in Maricopa County is much lower at 1.0x, reinforcing the notion that the area’s Airbnb market is oversupplied while its For Sale market is undersupplied. A situation that will likely correct itself in coming years as struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell their properties.

  In some cities, this correction could be on par with the Subprime Crisis in terms of how much inventory hits the market. Particularly in an area like Sevierville, a vacation destination in East Tennessee, where the number of Airbnbs currently outnumbers the homes For Sale by 10 to 1!

  

  How does this 10:1 Airbnb Supply Ratio in Sevierville play out in the coming months and years as the Recession worsens and travel demand drops further? No one knows for sure. But a scenario where For Sale inventory doubles or triples in a short period of time is entirely possible.

  The Airbnb selloff will happen in urban Neighborhoods. And Vacation Destinations.

  The oncoming Airbnb bust in America will be primarily felt in two types of locations:

  1) dense, urban areas that have the most Airbnb inventory in big cities, and

  2) vacation destinations.

  You can get a sense of this urban-area exposure in big cities by looking at the Airbnb heatmap below from AllTheRooms, which shows that Phoenix Airbnbs cluster in four main pockets: 1) Downtown Phoenix, 2) Scottsdale, 3) Paradise Valley, and 4) Tempe.

  

  These four areas account for roughly 65% of the short-term rental inventory in Maricopa County, and thus will be the most negatively impacted from an Airbnb owner selloff. Meanwhile, outlying suburban and rural neighborhoods will be less impacted since they have a much lower share of Airbnb inventory.

  You can get an even better sense of this by looking at the short-term rental Supply Ratio across a metro like Austin, TX, another area that’s been hard-hit by Airbnb bust. In Travis County, which is the main urban county in Austin, there are nearly 9,200 rentals on Airbnb compared to 4,000 listings For Sale, good for a hefty 2.3x supply ratio.

  

  But in Williamson County, the suburban area to the north of Austin, the situation is flipped and there are more homes listed for sale. With the implication being that the Airbnb bust is going to hit the urban Travis County much harder than suburban Williamson County.

  However, the more rural one goes, especially to vacation destinations, the more Airbnbs begin to pop-up once again. Nearby Fredericksburg, TX, located about two hours west of Austin, has a Supply Ratio of 6.3x, indicating that there are over 6 Airbnb Listings for every one house for sale. Highlighting the potential for big price declines as Airbnb bust worsens.

  

  Expect to see more For Rent signs as well

  Of course – an Airbnb owner that runs into financial distress might not have to sell. Instead, they could decide to rent out their property long-term, a trend that I suspect is already happening given the flood of rental inventory that has hit the market over the last year.

  For instance, in a metro like Nashville, TN, a fairly big Airbnb market, the number of vacant apartment rentals has recently skyrocketed, nearly doubling over the last 15 months all the way up to an 8.0% vacancy rate. This surge in apartment vacancies is similarly echoed in Airbnb-heavy metros like Dallas, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Tampa.

  

  Meanwhile, the number of vacant houses for rent has also skyrocketed in the same period, increasing from 43,000 houses available across America’s 54 largest counties in March 2022 to nearly 80,000 today (meaning that the number of vacant houses for rent has nearly doubled in the last year).

  

  But what if this surge in rental inventory worsens in coming months as more Airbnb operators try out the long-term rental market? Well, it could provide a shock that many institutional landlords are not expecting.

  In a place like Maricopa County in Phoenix, roughly 59% of the Airbnb supply is comprised of houses according to AllTheRooms. That compares to 13% condos, 9% apartments, and 20% of guesthouses/other.

  

  Indicating that biggest surge in rental inventory from Airbnb bust in Phoenix would likely come in the form of houses hitting the market for rent in neighborhoods like Downtown, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Tempe. Such a big surge in rental inventory in such a concentrated area has the potential to cause a massive drop in rents.

  Cities where Airbnbs are Performing Better

  It’s also important to remember that real estate is local, and that not every city or neighborhood is getting hit by Airbnb bust. In fact, some parts of America are experiencing increased Airbnb demand over the last year even as the broader market tanks.

  One of these areas is Washington DC, where gross Airbnb revenues are still up 1.6% YoY, while revenue per listing is only down -6%. The reason that DC is holding up better is because there has been a return to big cities over the last year since the pandemic ended, increasing demand for short-term stays. Moreover, Washington DC never got hit with the same surge in Airbnb supply as other cities, with its number of operating Airbnbs today about 15% lower than in 2019.

  Another area to watch is Milwaukee, WI. Gross market revenues are up 5.2% YoY while revenue per listing is only down -15% (much better than the -50% in an area like Phoenix). Milwaukee’s main draw is a lack of Airbnb supply competition, with the market being the rare case where the number of homes for sale is higher than the Airbnb listings.

  Of course, Airbnb investors in 2023 needs to be very careful, because I suspect we are just at the start of Airbnb bust. Over the next year we will likely see more layoffs and a higher unemployment rate in America, which will weigh further on travel demand and profits.

  Airbnb bust creates opportunity for Homebuyers and Investors

  Finally, I’d like to conclude with some perspective. I believe that Airbnb bust is a positive trend that will help to rebalance the real estate market and provide fresh opportunity to a new batch of homebuyers and investors in 2023 and 2024.

  Once the current level of Airbnb supply starts to drop, that should correlate with an increase in both For Sale and For Rent inventory that pushes home prices and rents down further. Enabling homebuyers and long-term real estate investors who have been waiting on the sidelines to re-enter the market.

  At the same time, once the Airbnb supply drops enough, it will stabilize the short-term rental market and eventually cause revenues to start going back up. Which will inevitably create fresh opportunity for aspiring Airbnb investors, particularly in hard-hit markets.

  The depth and timing of the downturn, and the resulting opportunity created by the downturn, really depends on the city you’re in as well as your specific neigborhood. Is your area oversupplied in terms of Airbnbs? If so, by how much? Are revenues dropping? Those are worthwhile questions for homebuyers and investors to figure out the answers to in 2023.

  Data in this Post / YouTube Video

  The data in this post came from two principal sources:

  1) Data on Airbnb revenues and supply comes from AllTheRooms, a short-term rental data tracking service.

  2) Data on For Sale Inventory comes from Realtor.com. This data can also be found on Reventure App.

  Also stay tuned for a YouTube video on this topic coming later today. You won’t want to miss it.

  -Nick

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 19:40

• French Fighter Jet Intercepts 'Polish Barry Seal' As Pilot Dumps Cocaine
  French Fighter Jet Intercepts ‘Polish Barry Seal’ As Pilot Dumps Cocaine

  On Saturday, a French fighter jet intercepted a small aircraft in southeast France. As the jet neared, the pilot began dumping bags of suspected cocaine from the plane, according to Agence France-Presse. 

  The single-seater tourist plane flew in the remote Ardèche region when the pilot breached highly restricted airspace around a nuclear power plant. AFP said the French Air Force dispatched a Dassault Rafale to intercept the small aircraft that was “judged to be maneuvering suspiciously.” 

  

  A military spokesperson said the fighter pilot “witnessed very erratic behavior in the cockpit (of the tourist plane), real agitation.” Over a few minutes, what happened next is like a scene from Tom Cruise’s film “American Made” when the actor portrayed cocaine smuggler Barry Seal. 

  The fighter pilot said the man opened the plane door and tossed out packages. Investigators found 15 packages on the ground containing about 66 pounds (or 30kg) of ‘white power.’  

  

  AFP said investigators are analyzing the white powder, and we’re sure the suspected trafficker, a Polish national with a past drugs offense, wasn’t dangerously flying around with baby powder…

  Separately, the latest global cocaine trends were released by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime on Monday. They found a “prolonged surge in both supply and demand of cocaine, which is now being felt across the globe and is likely to spur the development of new markets beyond the traditional confines.” 

  That may be why French authorities seized a record 156.7 tons of drugs last year. As for the ‘Polish’ version of Barry Seal… We can only imagine.

  Here’s a clip from American Made.  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 19:20

• The Left And Their Union Masters
  The Left And Their Union Masters

  Authored by Aaron White via RealClear Wire,

  If political rhetoric was subject to the same rigid labeling standards American manufacturers are expected to meet, liberals would have to call themselves something else.

  

  The term was undoubtedly test-marketed to evoke the image of someone more broadminded and generally more tolerant of others’ points of view.

  Does that describe any leftist you know?

  When liberals claim to prize diversity above virtually any other commodity, they’re referring only to differences in things that don’t matter and, by their own admission, human beings are born to be. Things like race, gender and sexual orientation.

  Opinions and actions, on the other hand, are fair game for the most soul-crushing forms of discrimination.

  If that sounds like an exaggeration, you haven’t ventured onto a college campus or spent time on social media platforms, whose sole purpose is to quash viewpoints with which those in power disagree.

  Less obvious to the naked eye, unfortunately, is perhaps the single-largest funding source for this toxic ideology — organized labor in general and government employee unions in particular.

  Because the whole idea of collective bargaining is based on excusing a relative handful of union members from the forces of supply and demand with which unorganized workers must contend, it only follows that union leaders would be suspicious, at best, of America’s market-driven economy. But at least those representing workers in the private sector understand their demands must be tempered by the employer’s need to earn profits.

  Government employee unions, however, recognize no such constraints.

  Members of groups like the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) and teachers’ unions like the National Education Association (NEA) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) are paid by tax dollars funneled through public employees’ paychecks. Consequently, leaders of their unions have a vested interest in growing the size and scope of government, regardless of how that impacts the rest of us.

  Unlike their peers in the real world, government union leaders know they aren’t dependent on the goodwill of millions of consumers, so they generally don’t care about whether their membership agrees with their stances. And if they don’t agree, they rely on bullying strategies to stop them from leaving and the overall size of government growing. So they focus on working with greedy politicians who can raise the taxes needed to advance a liberal agenda that has nothing whatsoever to do with workers’ pay or working conditions.

  For example:

  • At the height of the COVID pandemic, leaders of the United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA) demanded the defunding of law enforcement and universal Medicare in return for returning to the classroom;
  • The NEA used its 2020-21 annual conference to debate a pair of resolutions expressing the group’s public support for Palestinian statehood and condemn Israel’s “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians;
  • AFT President Randi Weingarten has used her union to wage a massive assault on the Second Amendment — including outright weapon confiscation — saying the U.S. must follow “what other great democracies” have done to ban guns;
  • Under President Mary Kay Henry, the SEIU in 2022 partnered with the Green New Deal Network for a series of protests to present a united front on climate legislation as they urged Congress to pass President Biden’s bloated “Build Back Better” proposal before the midterms; and,
  • Declaring that “racial, social and economic equality are top priorities for AFSCME,” the union in 2018 adopted Resolution 51, calling for, among many things, “bias training, which helps identify built-in prejudices.”

  The Left has long accused conservative political candidates and causes of being funded by huge, faceless corporate interests — a notion thoroughly invalidated, incidentally, via such companies Anheuser-Busch, Target and Disney, whose recent missteps had nothing to do with profits and everything to do with the far-Left ideologies of their leaders.

  But even if it were true that Wall Street uniformly skewed right while unions backed the Left, there’s an important distinction: However much the Kochs or the Waltons have spent on conservative legislation, at least it’s their money. Unions, meanwhile, confiscate billions of dues dollars every year from the paychecks of millions of government employees who think it’s being spent on representation and use it to underwrite a radical, leftist ideology perhaps half their members don’t even share. 

  In theory, this should no longer be the case. In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court, in Janus v. AFSCME, affirmed that union membership and dues and/or agency fees could no longer be made mandatory, as they had been for public employees in nearly half the country for generations. But unions responded by adopting a laundry list of strategies intended to blunt the court’s unambiguous intent — everything from suppressing information about the ruling to filing lawsuits against members seeking to opt out of union affiliation and even forging workers’ names on membership documents.

  Since Janus, government employee unions have lost nearly 800,000 members, taking with them billions in dues revenue that can never again be used to fund a machine that suppresses the rights of its own members in order to advance policies that rob the rest of us our God-given freedoms.

  But they’re still kicking.

  The struggle to expose labor’s unsavory role in the process is being waged battle by battle, but the war isn’t yet won.

  Aaron Withe is the CEO of the Freedom Foundation, a national public policy watchdog focusing on government employee unions. His first book, “Freedom is the Foundation,” was released this month.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 19:00

• There Were At Least 13 Campus Hate-Crime Hoaxes This School Year
  There Were At Least 13 Campus Hate-Crime Hoaxes This School Year

  Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

  The 2022-23 school year saw 13 hate crime hoaxes and six questionable claims, according to a College Fix analysis.

   

  

   

  Sports competitions continue to oddly be a source for race hoaxes, despite the omnipresence of phones that can capture alleged racial slurs.

  Pennsylvania State University fans found themselves falsely accused of using racial slurs against Rutgers University’s men’s basketball team. “Further investigation into reported fan behavior at the Penn State versus Rutgers basketball game on [Feb. 26] has found that no apparent racial slurs were used by Penn State fans,” the university announced.

  By now, it should be clear that claims of racial slurs at sports games are likely not true.

  The hoax that attracted the most attention of them all began in August, when Duke University volleyball player Rachel Richardson claimed that someone at a game against Brigham Young University kept yelling the n-word at her. This is actually two hate crime hoaxes, because her godmother also claimed that someone yelled the word every single time the black volleyball player went to serve.

  The hoax led the University of South Carolina women’s basketball coach to cancel a game against BYU, even after the hoax had been debunked. The University of Pacific canceled its game against BYU after the debunked hoax as well.

  August was a busy time for hate crime hoaxes, as that is when a black female in a “head scarf” named Zaynab Bintabdul-Hadijakien was charged for an attack on the Black Cultural Center. UVA officials would not identify the suspect, and even a police report redacted her race, but The Fix dug around and found out she is a black female.

  Even when a black Democrat at Harvard University stood accused of yelling a “homophobic slur” at a peer, LGBT students on campus blamed the pro-life club. This did not appear to be part of a rhetorical exercise, like when the president of MIT’s student government perpetrated two campus hate-crime hoaxes, hanging posters and chalking slurs against LGBTQ people, Latinos and other “marginalized communities,” to protest free speech.

  He was not the only LGBT person who left slurs for others in his tribe. For example, a “non-binary” University of Connecticut student found “homophobic language” on a dorm room door – but the culprits were other LGBTQ students.

  Other race hoaxes this school year include: the juvenile allegedly behind the bomb threats against historically black colleges and universities, a black man who trashed the University of Florida’s Institute for Black Culture sign, and the claim that white students surrounded a black female student at Sam Houston State University and poured water on her.

  The university told The Fix in September 2022 that police were “unable to verify” the claim.

  Race hoaxes are trickling down to the high school level as well, including the “White Power” graffiti left by Hispanic gangs at an Idaho high school and the two black students who circulated a “racist anti-Black caricature”at a high school in Sacramento, a common place for hate crime hoaxes.

  Not confirmed, but seems questionable

  The school year also saw questionable claims of hate crimes which were never confirmed or disproven.

  Most recently, The Fix reported that Eastern Washington University police closed an investigation into the n-word written on a mirror in a dance studio on campus. The Black Student Union reported finding the word after class.

  LGBT individuals at Harvard University claimed they received an email, echoing the language used by hoax perpetrator Jussie Smollett, that Cambridge was “MAGA Country.” Subsequent reporting by The Fix noted that the university quietly closed the investigation without telling anyone.

  Similarly, American University would not divulge the race of the suspect who wrote “Black people suck.”

  Black students at Grinnell College in Iowa claimed there had been “14 vehicles” vandalized, though students never reported it to the local police department. Campus safety was informed, however.

  However, sometimes hate crimes, or at least hateful acts between two races or religions, do occur.

  A black individual and two white friends wrote a racial slur on a black student’s dorm, although the police never charged anyone with a hate crime. Alston Willis was charged with harassment while the other individuals were given a warning for trespassing.

  In a more serious crime, three black teens were charged with misdemeanor battery charges for assaulting a Chinese University of Wisconsin Madison student.

  Finally, law enforcement closed an investigation into a racist letter allegedly sent to a University of Cincinnati Professor Antar Tichavakunda after he refused to answer questions from the police.

  The scholar claimed he received a letter which advocated for America to be “ethnically cleansed” and claimed black people shouldn’t be in school because “schools are for human beings not black afterbirth.”

  Special mention

  While not exactly a campus hate crime in the sense that it was perpetrated by a student or professor or occurred at a school, special mention goes to the academics who rushed to blame a deadly attack on an LGBT club on the “right-wing” — however, the suspect, who recently pled guilty to five murder charges identifies as “non-binary.”

  “I have no doubt in the coming days we will learn that the motive of the 22 year old young person who turned to violence was influenced by hateful rhetoric online and within right-wing media,” University at Buffalo Professor Ben Fabian commented soon after the shooting in a message to his peers.

  That claim, like so many other hate crime allegations, has been debunked.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 06/28/2023 – 18:20

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