- "Six Ways From Sunday" And The Continuity Of Government
“Six Ways From Sunday” And The Continuity Of Government
Authored by Sundance via The Last Refuge,
During the rushed debate over the Patriot Act, was when I first heard political officials talking about the importance of “continuity of government.”
I immediately recognized what all these DC voices were describing was a construct of a post-911 government that would exist and maintain itself without the elected representatives of WeThe People.
The intelligence gathering and homeland security system put into place after the Patriot Act was passed, is a bureaucratic administrative state without the presence of elected officials controlling the apparatus. That leads to the following question:
How can a constitutional republic function without elected officials in control of it?
That question is at the heart of our current situation.
That question is at the epicenter of this “new American democracy” that no one seems to understand.
The simple answer is it cannot.
We have been fighting this three-headed IC monster (DHS, DNI, DOJ-NSD) ever since.
This reality the underlying predicate behind why Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the Special Counsel charges against Trump. This reality is also the underlying framework behind why the Supreme Court recently reaffirmed the plenary power of the President with control over the executive.
In the post-9/11 system that was created by the Patriot Act, our Constitutional Republic was inextricably fractured, placing systems and silos in charge of government under the auspices of “continuity of government.”
From that moment forth, elected representatives no longer held authority or oversight *over* the national security apparatus. Instead, the Patriot Act flipped the actual system of democratically elected representative government.
The RESULT: Our elected officials became subservient to the institutional interests of unelected agency officials. As Senator Schumer calls them “the six ways from Sunday” coalition.
This reality empirically surfaces with people like former AG Bill Barr saying the President does not have unilateral authority over the DOJ. Also, the Lawfare approach and narrative that a President is not the arbiter of governing power. Both statements are constitutionally false, as affirmed by SCOTUS – Thank God.
Understand this. This is the root of the cancer that was always present, silent and lurking in the background institutions prior to 9/11. After the Patriot Act passed, that cancer fully metastasized and entered the bloodstream of American governance.
What was previously a slimy bag of institutional snakes, kept in place by a tenuously worn nylon bag – sewn from the remaining fabric of our constitution, was released by the Patriot Act.
Everything thereafter, including the constant bites we suffer from the unleashed weaponization, is a consequence of that moment.
That’s the root of our modern political reality.
This is the “new American democracy,” where the unelected officials and administrators within institutions hold power.
Under this Patriot Act framework, representative government [executive branch, legislative branch and even the judicial branch] are subservient to those who use the shield of national security. This outcome is the direct consequence of creating a system for the “continuity of government.”
LEARN IT!
Then, suddenly, everything about the domestic enemy we confront gets really clear.
Thankfully, the Supreme Court has now given indications that they understand what has taken place.
The Supreme Court has recently affirmed that only the President of the United States has the authority to control the Executive Branch. As a direct and consequential outcome, only the President of the United States can remove the core issue that has corrupted our constitutional intent.
Every element vested in the “continuity of government” as a manipulation of the constitution are now aligned to eliminate the threat President Donald Trump represents.
We have one chance.
Vote like your freedom depends on it, because it does.
Read the SCOTUS opinion, not from a point of view of President Trump, but from the point of view of what does this allow him to do in his second term, and what invisible straightjackets did it remove that were a threat during his first term?
While impeachment is a political process within the Legislative Branch, and the Supreme Court is extremely hesitant to overstep their role therein, the High Court did put this sentiment clearly into the opinion about immunity: …“The President is not above the law. But Congress may not criminalize the President’s conduct in carrying out the responsibilities of the Executive Branch under the Constitution.”…
Congress may not criminalize the conduct of the President simply for carrying out his core executive branch duties.
Removal of Executive Branch officials is a core duty, an official act, carrying absolute immunity.
That affirmed reality is exactly why the Deep State and Lawfare crowd are very alarmed.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 23:25 - Real Estate Bubbles: Where Rent Prices Are Going Up Or Down
Real Estate Bubbles: Where Rent Prices Are Going Up Or Down
Across real estate bubble cities, average rent prices have increased 5% since mid-2022 in real terms, while inflation-adjusted home prices have dropped 15%.
This has played a role in lowering bubble risk over the last two years. In this way, higher rent prices reflect fundamental demand, such as higher population growth, rather than speculation pushing up home prices. Higher incomes across cities has a similar effect in lowering bubble risk.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the annual change in real rental costs in bubble markets, based on data from UBS’ Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.
Rental Costs Are Soaring in Key Bubble Markets
Although real rents have increased modestly across bubble cities, we can see in the table below that select cities are seeing much higher demand:
*Paris data as of Q1 2023-Q1 2024.
Since 2020, real rents in Dubai have surged 60%, outpacing the 40% rise in real home prices.
This growth reflects a booming population, with 400,000 people moving to the city over the past four years. By 2040, Dubai’s population is expected to grow from 3.8 million to 5.8 million. Today, office occupancy in the financial hub now stands at 91%, surpassing many global centers.
Similarly, Madrid has seen average rent prices climb. Surging rental costs in Madrid have led to thousands of protesters taking the streets as real rents have risen at nearly triple the rate of real home prices in the last year.
In contrast, real rents in Singapore have fallen nearly 7%, following government efforts to curb foreign demand. This shift breaks from the previous five years, when rent prices outpaced the property market as the population expanded and housing construction faced delays.
From a regional standpoint, bubble cities in North America saw the vast majority of declines in average real rent prices. Leading these decreases were Los Angeles (-4.0%), Toronto (-2.8%), and Miami (-2.8%), which rank among the top five bubble risk cities in 2024.
To learn more about this topic from a U.S.-perspective, check out this graphic on the cities with the highest median rent in America in 2024.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 23:00 - After The Deluge
After The Deluge
Authored by Nancy Rommelmann via RealClearInvestigations,
At 7:30 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 27, Chris Trusz was standing on one of the bridges spanning the Broad River in Chimney Rock. He wanted to get a photo. It had been raining steadily for 36 hours and the river was running 10 inches above normal. Trusz, who’d moved to the western North Carolina mountain town 18 months earlier, wasn’t worried; residents had been warned there might be a bit of flooding. He got his picture and walked up the hill to his home.
“Normally I have a sliver of a view of the river,” he said. “Now I’m looking and can see the river clearly.” By the time he got back to Main Street, the Broad was three times as wide and running 30 inches high. Within the hour, buildings had slid off their foundations, some taken down by the furious mud-colored current and disappearing completely.
“We were watching homes wash by, all kinds of debris,” said Trusz. Worse, he recalled, were the cars being carried away, some with their headlights still on.
“I can’t unsee that,” said Trusz, three weeks after Hurricane Helene took down several western North Carolina towns, paralyzed the entire region, and killed at least 123, a number that will almost certainly rise and may prove unknowable.
It is one of several terrible unknowns the residents of western North Carolina now face. That they were unprepared for Helene is not on them – neither was the government nor anyone else. The “once in a thousand years” storm was not supposed to happen here, 500 miles from the Gulf of Mexico and 2,100 feet above sea level. There had been no local evacuation order even as the storm barreled their way. It would dump 30 inches of rain on western North Carolina and create up to 140-mile-per-hour winds. It would bring down untold thousands of trees. It would knock out the electrical grid, cell phone service, and the water supply all at once. In a matter of hours, it would obliterate the everyday security people felt, leaving survivors blinking into a new reality, wondering if they could or should rebuild lives in a place whose fragility had just been betrayed.
“If you live here or own a business, where do you go when it’s completely wiped out? I mean, how do you start over from that?” asked Trusz, a property manager for Airbnb who’d just found out the company was forbidding area rentals until June 2025 at least.
Further betrayal would come, during America’s overheated election season, from politicians, partisans, and conspiracists attempting to use the destruction and death caused by Helene to score political points. While mainstream news outlets suggested the area was being commandeered by armed right-wing militias, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was tweeting, “Yes they can control the weather” (no elaboration as to who “they” were).
Echoing a common complaint, Elon Musk claimed that “FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!” Before long, Musk would instead be thanking Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg for “expediting approval for support flights.” Below the radar were the innumerable others stoking discord, including the person who tweeted at me, “Water Back on in Asheville NC. Feels like BLEACH on my skin. Very hot. Burning my face….” This just after he retweeted several racist memes and the claim that the death toll in Asheville was over 8,000.
Because of its unexpected and painful destruction, western North Carolina has become another symbol of America’s cultural divide. One side is the politicization of everything, as human suffering was quickly transformed into a partisan cudgel swung by party operatives and media outlets who fed the public versions of events that advanced their favored narratives. On the other side was the heroic story of people and government working together as best they could in cataclysmic circumstances to aid and comfort one another.
That second, hopeful story is what I found while reporting in and around Asheville last week. In a hotel with no running water, guests, some of whom had multiple trees fall on their homes, made do. While the scene could resemble a pajama party gone wrong, with people shuffling to the Porto-Sans in the driveway and choosing not to comment on the smell of body odor in the elevator, most folks showed concern for what their fellow travelers were going through. They left food and drink on a table in the lobby, next to a paper plate onto which someone had written “Take what you need.” They had neither the luxury nor desire to make political hay from their brethren’s misery. And when the taps turned back on, the water was clear if not yet potable, and when you washed with it, it did not burn.
Capitalizing on the misfortune of others is reprehensible, and no one I met in western North Carolina had the leisure time or the inclination to do so. Many are still without drinking water. Commercial districts have the same ghostly quality they had during COVID, and the shoulders of many roadways are piled with what was left of downed trees, the white oaks, maples, and pines that drew 14 million visitors a year, especially in late September and October, when the region blazes red and gold.
If many of those trees are now gone, what happens to the tourism economy and its $7.7 billion? What of Asheville’s major creative draw, the River Arts District, where floodwaters reached 27 feet and where what studio spaces remain have been taken down to the studs? Where do people find the courage, and the resources, to start again? And what if the thousand-year storm turns out to have a different schedule?
“I have childhood memories up there in Chimney Rock on Lake Lure, my granddaddy took me up there,” said Beverly Ramsey. “How do you rebuild something like that?”
Ramsey was driving to T-Birds, the bar she has frequented most days since Helene hit, not to drink but to see how she can help. The Weaverville lounge, usually known for its pool tables and karaoke, had been converted into a repository for donated goods, currently being organized by 25-year-old Alex Holt. Holt worked faster than someone running over hell’s half-acre, organizing the pet food and sleeping bags and propane tanks and maple syrup and other items brought on trailer trucks – so many that, 20 days post-Helene, they were backed up on Old Mars Mill Highway. How many were arriving a day?
“I couldn’t give you an exact number, they’re coming from Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Mississippi,” said Holt, who clearly had zero time to chat. “We’re just trying to meet everyone’s needs.”
“Can you imagine getting your period through all this?” Ramsey asked, sorting through a shopping bag a local woman had just dropped off, individual baggies holding six tampons and a two-pack of chocolate cupcakes.
Ramsey had been in Weaverville, a town of about 5,000 people 11 miles from Asheville, at her elderly mother’s home when Helene hit. As for how terrifying it initially was that morning: not very.
“I slept through it,” she said. Her main concern, when she woke up and saw the power was out, was being unable to make coffee. She decided to walk to a nearby Bojangles.
Forty-five minutes later she was back, the scene she encountered outside both impassable and making no sense. Dozens of big trees lay across the suburban street. Climbing over limbs and under fallen power lines, she came across three men using chainsaws to cut a hole in the fallen trees. Did they know what had happened? They did not; they had no cell service. Ramsey checked her own phone. No signal. Overhead, she heard the whomp whomp of a Chinook helicopter. What the hell was going on?
It was not until that night, when a neighbor used a power inverter to hook a car battery to his television, that Ramsey would begin to learn of the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. The flooding appeared to be the worst since The Great Flood of 1916 when the region experienced 26 inches of rain. Helene would dump 30 inches, or more than 40 trillion gallons, though Ramsey would not know as much for days; no one could, not with all communications cut, and roads crisscrossed with downed trees, and some washed away entirely. Other than by helicopter, there was no way in or out, and in some cases, people could not reach their closest neighbors, to say nothing of the outside world.
Help nevertheless got through. “That first day, people brought us gas, water,” said Ramsey, who let those who could not get home, or no longer had homes to get to, crash on her floor. Where some blamed the government for not immediately rushing to the rescue, Ramsey praised the self-reliance of her neighbors.
“Hillbillies and rednecks are a community. They want to talk about how Podunk we are and backwards. But no, we got this,” she said. “We need outside assistance, obviously. But we came together immediately.”
They mourn the deaths together, too. Ramsey mentions 11 members of the Craig family buried alive in a mudslide, and shows me the cover of a local paper, a photo of Alison Wisely and her two young sons, swept away, along with her fiance, when they left their car and tried to run for safety.
“And the farms, the water rushed out and took them down to the bedrock,” said Ramsey. “I mean, you don’t come back from that. That kind of property will never be farmed again. Not in our lifetime or even our children’s lifetime.”
While she has no idea when or whether her commercial cleaning business will reopen, Ramsey is optimistic about the future – and she isn’t.
“I don’t know that Asheville will be any different because it was already a tight community. Now as far as rebuilding places like Chimney Rock, I don’t know that that’s going to happen,” she said. “I have childhood memories up there. This is in the 70s, and very little has changed since then, as far as the aesthetics. So how do you rebuild something like that?”
Before the rebuilding, the clean-up. How much is complete and how much there is to go, three weeks post-Helene, is not possible to know. Asheville’s River Arts District looks as though it has undergone a bombing: two square miles of crumbled warehouses, brick piles, splintered lumber, and vehicles packed with mud from when the French Broad River, which runs parallel to the RAD, left the district underwater. The fate of the structures, many of them former mills and factories built around 1900, is unknown. What happens to a 120-year-old foundation that’s been sitting under 27 feet of water? Touring the district with Buttigieg on Oct. 17, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper struck a hopeful if vague note, saying the area would “come back” but probably “in a different way.”
Uncertainty continues as you drive east, on bridges until recently acting as catchments for debris and buildings packed with 12 feet of sludge, debris and more sludge pushed to roadsides and going on for miles. Everywhere, there are earthmovers, bucket trucks, linemen restringing electrical lines, water trucks bringing potable water – proof of life on a landscape that can otherwise appear post-apocalyptic, the town of Swannanoa leveled by the river of the same name, the town of Lake Lure sealed up tight.
Or nearly sealed. Lake House Restaurant was empty at 4 p.m. but for one bar patron when Rodolfo and Jose Hernandez came in for a bite. The brothers wore T-shirts that read, “S*E*R*T Swadley’s Emergency Relief Team,” the charitable arm of a chain of barbecue restaurants that makes it their business to get food to disaster zones.
“Brent Swadley, he bring a big, big kitchen and trailers from OKC. We get here last Thursday,” said Rodolfo, who is originally from Puebla, Mexico. He and Jose work as mechanics for the Swadley’s vehicles, though here, they also serve food to work crews. “The people are very happy to get real food, barbecue, steak, ribs, turkey, ham,” says Rodolfo. “Brent Swadley, he has a good heart.”
An ecosystem of good hearts formed post-Helene: the S*E*R*T team; the hundreds of trucks pulling up to T-Birds; the AI developer who, the day after the hurricane, made it his business to figure out how to find, bottle, and deliver drinking water; the Asheville bakery giving free fresh-baked pastries to patrons who left 20s in the tip jar; the seemingly limitless number of churches (“You hear the state sometimes referred to the as the prong in the Bible Belt,” said Beverly Ramsey, who is also an ordained minister) being of service, including the man in a “Don’t Let the Bad Days Win” shirt unloading pallets of bottled water and baby diapers; private citizens volunteering to go door-to-door to do wellness checks; translators helping non-English speakers fill out aid applications; community centers providing relaxation rooms to exhausted road workers; and the man who keeps a backpack of emergency supplies at-the-ready at all times who brought his 9-year-old daughter with him as he carried life-sustaining goods to people unable to escape their mountain homes, people for whom the surprise of a little girl brought its own kind of sunshine.
“Kids are just as motivated to help people as adults are,” the man said, adding that he did not bring his daughter on the darker missions, the ones he would not talk about.
As the people of western North Carolina get their bearings, many who swooped in to help will move to the next disaster; S*E*R*T was also in Florida, providing meals to those hard hit by Hurricane Milton. What “recovery” looks like is as yet unknown, and already there are frustrations, if not always a logical place to put them. People cannot be mad at the storm, or not with any hope of restitution. A storm will never say, “My bad.” And so people are mad, for instance, at their insurance companies, when they find out their policies do not cover flood damage.
“He’s having an incredibly hard time,” said one retired insurance agent, whose Asheville colleague was so besieged that she and other agents “formed a triage team so all calls went to a human voice. People needed to lay out their heart to someone on the other end of the phone.”
If for naught: The agent estimated that no more than 2% of policy owners had elected to carry flood insurance, and why would they? Western North Carolina is above the floodplain; the area had not catastrophically flooded since the Great Flood of 1916, also known as “the flood by which all other floods are measured,” a flood Helene out-measured, leaving property owners understandably desperate for someone to tell them there’d be money coming to repair their lives.
The best insurance could do, said the agent, was “get them a declaration form that says they were not [covered] and they could bring that to FEMA,” the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which, along with other government agencies, was experiencing its share of post-Helene consumer hatred, some of it whipped up by keyboard warriors claiming FEMA was holding “special meetings” to steal people’s homes and confiscate donations (assertions debunked by a local congressman), and that a North Carolina National Guard helicopter had deliberately sabotaged a distribution center (based on rotor wash having accidentally blown over some donated goods).
“There’s been a lot of rumors on social media in particular, and they’re not helpful in terms of our ability to help people,” said Mike Cappannari, external affairs officer for FEMA. Looking tired but composed amid the hundreds of storm victims milling through a Disaster Recovery Center set up on the campus of A.C. Reynolds High School in Asheville, Cappannari said FEMA had about 2,000 responders in the region, that it was still tough to get to some remote areas, and that in some cases the agency was working in concert with the Department of Defense to create points of distribution as close to disaster sites as possible. As for the wilder stories online, such as FEMA workers being chased down by truckloads of armed vigilantes, “You just try and fight through that,” he said. “Fortunately, over the past handful of days, we’ve seen not as much of that and are just trying to encourage people to register for assistance with us and see how we can help.”
Hanging out with a volunteer friend on another part of the Reynolds campus, it was hard for Kim Pierce to know what help she needed.
“I lost everything,” said Pierce, a slip of a woman who’d closed on a new East Asheville condo on Monday, Sept. 23. It was to be the first home she would live in without any of her six grown children, a ground-floor unit for which she’d paid cash, a place she envisioned riding out her semi-retirement with other residents, most of them over 60.
What she did not envision: waking up on Friday, Sept. 27, to find her new yard underwater. She did not envision moving a few cherished items to the trunk of her car for safety, only to watch her car sink. She did not envision falling into and scrambling out of the rushing Swannanoa River, taking refuge with neighbors she had never met, eating soup with them in a daze, and, because she was perhaps spryer and certainly more stubborn, getting the names, addresses, and prescription medications of these strangers and pledging to get to the nearest fire station to implore the fire crew to rescue them. Which she was doing when her sons-in-law showed up at her condo, found it underwater, and figured she was dead.
“When I showed up [at my daughter’s], she came screaming out of the house, she’s sobbing and is like, ‘Mama, I was writing your eulogy!’” said Pierce. “It was so hard to see my child so traumatized.”
Hard, too, to envision the future when the accumulation and plans of 60-plus years disappear overnight. “There is beauty that comes out of ashes. And I am experiencing it. I see it in little glimpses,” she said. “And then I go back into this fog of, I’ve lost everything.”
“Where do you put 30 inches of rain?” asked Chris Trusz, overlooking the Broad River, running today at normal capacity.
The question answered itself as he walked Main Street, past splintered furniture; car-sized clumps of dried mud, wood, and wire; crushed delivery trucks, dented refrigeration and a winery left precariously cantilevered by the storm.
“They’re going to have to bring in so much fill to get back up to where you possibly could rebuild,” said Trusz. “Most people will, because it’s a strong little town, but I can’t blame people for wanting to leave.”
While work crews continued clearing the roads, and while Trusz had nothing but goodwill for private and public sector efforts (“The community, the 101st Airborne, FEMA, everybody’s been here helping out,” he said, waving at several truckloads of National Guard), life in Chimney Rock has yet to resume, residents and business owners still figuratively rising to the surface. While the river was cleaning itself, those sorting through what was left of Gale’s Chimney Rock Shop – the clothing, souvenirs, and photos that had been inside the 77-year-old store now outside in sodden piles on a cold October afternoon – moved with deliberate slowness, trying to assess what could be saved from what was gone forever.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 22:35 - Trump Election Odds Near 67% As Polymarket Whale Bets Another $2M
Trump Election Odds Near 67% As Polymarket Whale Bets Another $2M
Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,
Former United States President Donald Trump’s lead on the top blockchain-based betting market is nearing 67% as a mysterious whale continues to bet on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on Nov. 5.
Trump’s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3% on the leading decentralized predictions market on Oct. 28, according to Polymarket data.
Presidential election winner 2024, one-month chart. Source: Polymarket
Trump’s odds increased after a Polymarket whale, or large holder, invested another $2 million worth of USD Coin USDC$1.00 tokens into pro-Trump bets.
The mysterious whale has spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares, according to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, which wrote in an Oct. 28 X post:
“Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes’ shares on Donald Trump winning the US election, with an unrealized profit of $256,000.”
With only seven days until the 2024 US presidential election, decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, according to billionaire Elon Musk.
The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.
Mysterious Polymarket whale seems unrelated to “Fredi9999”
The mysterious Polymarket whale, known as “zxgngl,” holds over 11.2 million “Yes” votes worth over $7.5 million, according to Polymarket data.
Zxgngl, Polymarket whale, positions. Source: Polymarket
The increasing positions come after the top Trump bettor on Polymarket, “Fredi9999,” bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares up to Oct. 18.
Moreover, Fredi’s transaction patterns suggest that it controls four of the six largest Trump-voting accounts on Polymarket, all funded with Kraken deposits.
Leading Trump bettors. Source: PolyMarket
While 99% of zxgngl’s bets were also placed on Trump, their account was funded by Binance, not the Kraken exchange. Their transaction patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively.
Zxgngl, Polymarket deposits. Source: Lookonchain
As for Fredi, the account is likely controlled by a person with deep confidence in a Trump victory, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, who told Cointelegraph:
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
US presidential elections fuel 565% prediction market growth
The upcoming US elections have boosted investor interest in prediction markets.
The betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in the third quarter to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter.
Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko
This significant third-quarter growth is mainly attributed to the US elections, according to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report.
Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized betting platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 22:10 - Supreme Court Passes On 2nd Amendment Challenge To Federal Gun Law
Supreme Court Passes On 2nd Amendment Challenge To Federal Gun Law
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Supreme Court has sidestepped a challenge to a federal law prohibiting felons from possessing firearms.
Instead of scheduling oral argument in the case filed by Lorenzo Garod Pierre, on Oct. 21, the court granted the petition and immediately overturned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit ruling that Pierre was appealing.
The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Oct. 23, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times The Supreme Court did not provide reasons for its decision. No justices dissented.
The Supreme Court directed the 11th Circuit to reconsider its ruling in Pierre’s case in light of United States v. Rahimi, a decision the high court issued in June that the federal government said “clarified the methodology for determining whether a firearms regulation complies with the Second Amendment.”
In Rahimi, the justices upheld Section 922(g)(8) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code, a federal law that bars people under domestic violence-related restraining orders from possessing firearms.
Specifically, they found that the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution isn’t violated when an individual is disarmed after a court has found him to pose a credible threat to the physical safety of another.
Pierre said in his petition that he was charged in July 2022 with violating Section 922(g)(1) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code for knowingly possessing a firearm after being convicted of a felony. Court papers did not provide details of the prior felony conviction.
Pierre asked the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida to throw out the felony-level indictment, arguing that it was “unconstitutional in light of” New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen, which the Supreme Court handed down in June 2022. In Bruen, the nation’s highest court held that firearms restrictions must have a historical analogue and that the Second Amendment protects the right to bear arms in public for self-defense.
A magistrate judge filed a report that recommended denying the motion to dismiss. Magistrate judges are appointed to assist federal district judges.
Pierre objected, and the district court refused to dismiss the charge, finding that prior 11th Circuit rulings “squarely foreclosed” the constitutional challenge and were not undermined by the Bruen precedent.
Pierre lodged an appeal with the 11th Circuit arguing that his conviction “as applied” ran afoul of the Second Amendment. In an as-applied challenge, a litigant argues that a statute or regulation is unconstitutional in the context of a specific case.
On March 12, the 11th Circuit affirmed the district court in a two-page decision, holding that the circuit court’s prior rulings were binding in the case.
Pierre argued in his petition that, since Bruen was decided, federal courts of appeals have been split on whether a “defendant may mount a challenge that his individual circumstances do not supply a basis, consistent with the Second Amendment, for stripping the right” to possess firearms.
The 11th Circuit says felons are “categorically ‘disqualified’ from exercising their Second Amendment right,” but the Seventh and Ninth circuits allow defendants to file as-applied challenges to charges under Section 922(g)(1).
The Supreme Court should grant review to resolve the circuit split, the petition states.
U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued in a Sept. 16 brief that the Supreme Court should grant the petition and send the case back to the 11th Circuit with instructions to review its ruling in light of Rahimi.
The Rahimi decision contains within it the proper legal standard for evaluating the Pierre case because it “clarified the methodology for determining whether a firearms regulation complies with the Second Amendment.”
And because the Supreme Court vacated judgments in five separate challenges to Section 922(g)(1) in July and sent those cases back to circuit courts for review in light of Rahimi, “consistent with that practice, the Court should grant the petition … in this case, vacate the court of appeals’ judgment, and remand for further consideration in light of Rahimi,” Prelogar said.
The Epoch Times reached out for comment to Pierre’s attorney, Brian Taylor Goldman of Holwell, Shuster, and Goldberg in New York City, and the U.S. Department of Justice but had received no replies as of publication time.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 21:45 - Overton Window Shifts Towards Liberty
Overton Window Shifts Towards Liberty
There’s been a seismic shift in the mood of the American people. Have you noticed?
The propaganda and manipulation by Democrats, Deep State non-profits (funded by radical leftist billionaires), and corporate media outlets have lost control of the narratives just days before the presidential election—they’re no longer effective at propping up Kamala Harris—as a majority of American people reject censorship, wokeism and whatever this is...
It was crucial we shifted the Overton window away from this 👇 pic.twitter.com/AAPlKx1G3o
— Declaration of Memes (@LibertyCappy) October 28, 2024
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Americans are now more interested in upholding the values of the West, the US Constitution, and the Declaration of Independence, with some youth seeking traditionalism. The far-left slant of the Overton window during the Biden-Harris administration appears to be shifting the other way/ or perhaps widening.
The Overton Window is a range of acceptable policy ideas within mainstream political debate. For years, corporate MSM, radical leftist non-profits, and far-left activists in government and corporations have artificially pushed the window to the left, force-feeding Americans into radical leftist ideas to transform the nation towards a pathway towards socialism/or 21st-century communism.
History may show that Elon Musk’s X and former President Trump shifted the Overton Window from a leftist extreme to more of a center-right. Americans are increasingly giving up on woke pronouns, instead focusing on “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Musk has shown MSM’s matrix has glitched, with an X post stating, “The refreshing cool breeze of a wide open Overton Window.”
The refreshing cool breeze of a wide open Overton Window https://t.co/zOGLJ8A9ax
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2024
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Musk followed up on the Overton Window on Sunday evening. He said, “Ever wondered about the Overton Window?”
Musk quoted X user Jash Dholani, who explained the origins of the Overton Window and just exactly how this model shows wokeism is coming to an end. The window has shifted to the center-right.
Here is the explainer:
The Long View states…
TV and newspapers are toast and naturally so is the Overton window. This is the first election where neither are relevant.
— The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) October 28, 2024
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“The most important thing to understand about the Overton Window is that it is not static, it is always on the move. Not only can the window shift left or right, but the window itself can also expand and contract based on a number of different cultural and political factors,” another X user noted.
The most important thing to understand about the Overton Window is that it is not static, it is always on the move. Not only can the window shift left or right, but the window itself can also expand and contract based on a number of different cultural and political factors. https://t.co/xcFDXxpwuP pic.twitter.com/WzfAvjcEIy
— Starvin’ the Beast (@StarvintheBeast) October 27, 2024
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Overton Window has shifted so severely in recent months… And we wonder why.
Don’t just open the Overton Window, knock down the whole damn wall!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 26, 2024
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Like many of Trump’s new supporters this year.
I don’t mean to sound contentious, but the Overton Window has shifted a great deal in a short time. pic.twitter.com/JHXxhhhfAX
— Fight With Memes (@fightwithmemes) October 27, 2024
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What’s clear is that the Overton Window has shifted towards “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Earlier this year, we stated: “Open The Overton Window.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 21:20 - Michigan's Early Voters Brave Long Lines, Break Records
Michigan’s Early Voters Brave Long Lines, Break Records
Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
As Michigan’s statewide early voting began on Oct. 26, long wait times discouraged more than a few would-be participants who spoke with The Epoch Times.
The Michigan state flag waves in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Aug. 28, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times Bill Keller decided against sitting in a two-hour line in Farmington Hills.
“I think what I’ll do is absentee vote,” the supporter of Vice President Kamala Harris told The Epoch Times before he walked back to his car.
Farnsworth and Tricia Howard were deterred by the line at a site in Waterford Oaks.
Farnsworth, a retired United Auto Workers union representative, told The Epoch Times they planned to vote for former President Donald Trump in the hopes of ushering in “a new era.”
Bill Keller was discouraged by long lines on the first day of early voting in Farmington Hills, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024. He plans to vote absentee. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times For all the attrition, the state posted record-breaking returns.
It is Michigan’s first presidential election to see the process of early voting, which was instituted via a 2022 ballot proposal to amend the state constitution, and Oct. 26 saw more than 145,000 early ballots cast.
“We’re starting a new tradition of early voting here in Michigan,” Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said in a statement announcing the figures.
The buzz of activity was reflected in the polling numbers. By late in the afternoon, 463 ballots had been pushed through the tabulator at the Farmington Hills site.
“This is a higher turnout than we expected,” said Dawn Raymond, who was overseeing early voting at the site.
She told The Epoch Times that things had gone well: “We haven’t had many people with any political issues that they’re trying to bring up with us when it’s something that we shouldn’t be discussing here.”
For senior citizen Leia, like many other voters, 2024 is about more than policy and dry statistics—it is charged with emotion. She and her husband Hans did not wish to use their real name for fear of reprisal.
A dietician, Leia described the election as her chance to oppose Trump, a man she likened to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
“Harris makes you feel good,” she said.
Leia’s husband, Hans, noted that his own brother-in-law was attending a nearby Trump rally. Harris held a rally in the state the same day.
“All my friends that like Trump think that somehow, that Trump’s going to make their lives better,” said Hans, a retired specialty store owner. “What the world would be like if Trump does everything he says he’s gonna do—that’s a scary, scary thought.”
A few feet away, Emma Wolford had just voted in her first election as a U.S. citizen.
“I moved to the U.S. from England when I was almost nine,” she said.
Emma Wolford after voting in her first election as a U.S. citizen in Farmington Hills, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024 (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times). Trump earned her support.
“I left a socialist country and came here for a better future,” she said.
Wofford is a graduate of Hillsdale College, a school known for its conservatism. Some of her friends from that institution oppose Trump, she said.
Tricia Howard said her biggest motivator to vote was “the safety of our country.”
Her husband Farnsworth, who is a U.S. Army veteran, was particularly concerned about the border.
He isn’t happy that foreigners who entered the country illegally can get resources even as many American veterans are homeless.
The retired UAW union representative is also concerned about electric vehicle mandates.
Another couple, Adam and Michelle Stankus, waited roughly an hour in line at Waterford Oaks. They weren’t making a statement by showing up on day one of early voting—they just wanted to get it out of the way.
“Vote now, vote later, vote mail-in—it’s all the same,” Adam Stankus said.
They were glad to vote against Trump—“against fascism,” as Adam put it.
Matthew Kovach, who was waiting for his ride outside the Waterford Oaks site, said he came out to fight communism and globalism. To him, that meant voting for Trump.
Kovach was disabled after a serious car accident in 2021.
Early voter Matthew Kovach in Waterford Oaks, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times “They thought I was going to be a vegetable,” he recalled. He thanked God that didn’t happen.
“They say President Trump dodged death. I dodged death. That’s the only thing we’ve got in common,” he said with a laugh.
Kovach hopes to play hockey again someday. For now, he’s recovering his mobility. He brought his crutches to the early voting site in case of long lines.
Andy Kollin spent an hour and fifty minutes at the Farmington Hills site.
“I don’t want to see #45 [Trump] in office again,” he said when asked what brought him out on the first day of early voting.
Kollin said he was glad to see people turn out in high numbers, “whichever way they’re voting.”
Shortly before 4:30 p.m., a trio of young Michiganders appeared on the edge of the parking lot at the Waterford Oaks site. A young man and two young women were trying to cast their early ballots before the site closed for the day.
The Epoch Times jogged with them to the door, where they barely missed the cutoff. Nathan Rehm let out a groan.
“I’m more of a Trump guy,” said Rehm, an engineering student at Michigan State University (MSU). Winter Runyan and her sister, Gabby, both support Trump too.
“I just can’t imagine Kamala Harris sitting down with world leaders,” he said.
Rehm has grown more comfortable voicing support for Trump on campus. He wonders if hatred for the former president has ebbed
Nathan Rehm, Winter Runyan, and Gabby Runyan at an early voting site in Waterford Oaks, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times “What college major you are plays a role,” said Winter Runyan, who is also an MSU student. “He’s an engineering major, so I feel like a lot of people are more on the Republican side,” she said of Rehm.
As a health care student, Winter Runyan’s less inclined to reveal her political preference to her peers.
“I do feel judged, and I definitely think they’re going to have some view towards me,” she said, adding that she counts many Democrats among her friends.
The Runyan sisters work alongside each other. Gabby is a dispatcher, while Winter is an emergency medical technician. Winter wants to be a physician assistant.
Although the three weren’t pleased to miss out on the first day of early voting, they were determined to make their voices heard.
“We’ll be back tomorrow,” Winter Runyan said.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 20:55 - Virginia Asks US Supreme Court To Allow Its Removal Of Non-Citizens From Voter Rolls
Virginia Asks US Supreme Court To Allow Its Removal Of Non-Citizens From Voter Rolls
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,
Virginia officials filed an emergency application with the U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 28 asking the justices to allow the state to remove suspected noncitizens from the voter rolls.
The application was filed in the case known as Beals v. Virginia Coalition for Immigrant Rights.
The application was directed to Chief Justice John Roberts, who oversees emergency litigation from Virginia.
The lead applicant, Susan Beals, is Virginia’s Commissioner of Elections.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit found unanimously on Oct. 27 that taking the names off the voter rolls within 90 days of an approaching federal election appears to violate the National Voter Registration Act.
Federal elections are scheduled for Nov. 5.
The Supreme Court previously held in Purcell v. Gonzalez (2006) that courts should not change rules close to an election because doing so creates a risk of causing confusion.
Virginia counters that the legal provision is not relevant because the names being removed are not those of U.S. voters.
But “that argument violates basic principles of statutory construction by focusing on a differently worded statutory provision that is not at issue here and proposing a strained reading of the Quiet Period Provision to avoid rendering that other provision absurd or unconstitutional,” the Fourth Circuit said.
Such an interpretation would be problematic because it would give the words “voters” and “registrant” an identical meaning, the circuit court said.
Moreover, Virginia had not demonstrated its appeal was likely to succeed or that it would suffer irreparable harm should the appeal be denied, the circuit court said as it affirmed an Oct. 25 ruling by U.S. District Judge Patricia Tolliver Giles.
Giles wrote that Virginia was still free to cancel the voter registration of noncitizens individually or to investigate “noncitizens who register to vote or who vote in Virginia’s election.”
The ruling applies only to Virginia’s “systematic” effort to remove noncitizens that began after Aug. 7, she added.
In the new application, Virginia said it objected to the district court decision because “less than two weeks before the 2024 Presidential Election, and more than a month into early voting, the district court … ordered Applicants, Virginia and its election officials, to place over 1,600 self-identified noncitizens back onto Virginia’s voter rolls, in violation of Virginia law and common sense.”
Virginia said the Supreme Court should stay the district court ruling because it “is based on a misinterpretation of the [National Voter Registration Act], which does not prohibit Virginia from removing noncitizens from its voter rolls.”
The ruling would also “impose significant cost, confusion, and hardship upon Virginia, creating a massive influx of work for its registrars in the critical week before the election, and likely confusing noncitizens into believing that they are eligible to vote.”
Roberts directed co-respondents Virginia Coalition for Immigrant Rights, League of Women Voters of Virginia, African Communities Together, and the federal government to respond to the application by 3 p.m. on Oct. 29.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 20:05 - Trade Data Reveals Indian Biotech Firm Supplying US AI Chips To Russia
Trade Data Reveals Indian Biotech Firm Supplying US AI Chips To Russia
A new analysis of public trade data suggests that Brussels and Washington’s efforts to entirely block Moscow from accessing cutting-edge Western technology may have encountered a critical stumbling block. An apparent loophole has emerged in India: A biotech firm, possibly acting as a front company, has purchased servers with advanced US chips, which are then rerouted and shipped to Russia.
Investigative reporters with Bloomberg shed light on Shreya Life Sciences, a so-called biotech firm located in Mumbai. They cite trade data compiled by trade-tracking firms ImportGenius and NBD that show Shreya exported 1,111 units of PowerEdge XE9680 Rack Servers produced by Dell Technologies to Russia.
On Dell’s website, the product description for the PowerEdge XE9680 reads, “Take on demanding artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning. Rapidly develop, train and deploy large machine learning models with this high-performance application server made for artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and deep learning. Dell’s PowerEdge XE9680 delivers the industry’s best AI performance.”
Further down in the product description, Dell notes the servers are equipped with either Nvidia or AMD chips.
Bloomberg noted that the servers and chips are on a blacklist by the US and the European Union, preventing the flow of technology to Moscow. The EU, in cooperation with the US, UK, and Japan, has said these sanctions on Russia are “to target sensitive sectors in Russia’s military-industrial complex and to limit its access to crucial advanced technology.”
Source: Bloomberg According to Bloomberg journalists, trade data shows that two Russian trading companies, Main Chain Ltd. and IS LLC, imported AI servers with US chips totaling $300 million to Russia.
Source: Bloomberg Taking this investigative report even further, public trade data compiled by counterparty and supply chain risk intelligence firm Sayari shows Russian buyers Main Chain, IS, and Mine Hine imported these PowerEdge XE9680s from Shreya in April and May.
Source: Sayari Data compiled by Sayari is then produced in a web visual form to show how the Indian pharma company pumped hundreds of these Western AI servers into Russia earlier this year.
Additional trade data by the supply chain risk firm shows that 81% of Shreya’s total exports this year have been directed to Russia.
Source: Sayari Most of the export shipments to Russia were computers and processing machines… Not really biotech-ish, eh?
Source: Sayari Maybe the journos at Bloomberg have stumbled upon a front company that allows Russia to evade Western sanctions on procuring AI tech.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 19:40 - NATO Chief Says North Korean Troops Are Helping Regain Territory In Russia's Kursk
NATO Chief Says North Korean Troops Are Helping Regain Territory In Russia’s Kursk
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday has introduced yet another new bombshell claim related to allegations of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces.
At a press conference in Brussels, which reportedly followed a private briefing by South Korean intelligence officials, Rutte claimed that there is intelligence confirming that North Korean military units have been deployed to Russia’s southwest Kursk region.
The Kursk region has been subject of a Ukrainian cross-border offensive which began in early August. It shocked Kremlin leadership, given Ukrainian soldiers were able to hold on to hundreds of kilometers of territory.
Part of Kiev’s aim appears to have been to distract Russia’s military from its operations in Ukraine’s east, and divide resources, forcing the Russians to deal with clawing back their own territory.
But now the accusation appears to be that Kim Jong Un’s North Korean military is assisting in getting Kursk back. Rutte has called it a sign of “growing desperation.”.
“The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security,” Rutte said at the press conference. “The deployment [of] North Korean troops to Kursk is also a sign of Putin’s growing desperation.”
Butte urged: “NATO calls on Russia and the DPRK to cease these actions immediately.”
Zelensky’s office has once again used alleged North Korean involvement to call for more immediate military help from Western allies. “This is an escalation. Sanctions alone are not enough. We need weapons and a clear plan to prevent North Korea’s expanded involvement in the war in Europe,” Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said.
“Today, Russia brings in North Korea; next, it could broaden their engagement, and then other autocratic regimes may see that they can get away with this and come to fight against NATO,” Yermak added. “The enemy understands strength. Our allies have this strength.”
President Joe Biden also on Monday slammed the apparent North Korean troop deployment as a “dangerous” development:
“Very dangerous,” Biden said when asked about the North Korean deployment, as he spoke to reporters after casting his early vote in the US presidential election in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.
JUST IN: 🇰🇵🇷🇺 North Korea officially deploys troops to fight alongside Russia in its war against Ukraine, NATO confirms. pic.twitter.com/voDE8LTAg2
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) October 28, 2024
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For the first time, the Kremlin has appeared to admit some level of North Korean military troop assistance related to the Ukraine conflict:
In a response, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed to a security and defense treaty signed by Moscow and Pyongyang in June.
“We have said many times that the treaty is not secret, it is public, the entire text has been published, and it in no way violates any provisions of international law, because it involves, among other things, the providing of assistance in case one of the countries that is a party to the treaty is militarily attacked,” he told a press conference in Moscow, in comments reported by the Interfax news agency.
Lavrov added: “So our position here is absolutely honest and open.” But nothing has been disclosed in terms details of precisely where DPRK soldiers might be operating.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 18:50 - The Political Theology That Maintains State Power
The Political Theology That Maintains State Power
Authored by John Kennedy via The Mises Institute,
For religions throughout the world, established rules, studies, and practices are instrumental for their legitimacy. Established religious institutions throughout the world train theologians to study the nature of God and their belief system. For the Sunni Muslims, theologians in the Hanafi school consist of legal studies in line with Islam, while others like the Murji’ah sect focus on moral teachings of work and faith. Catholics too prescribe specialized areas of study to theologians, whether that be social teachings on leading a moral life or supernatural studies of God.
Whatever the case, each of these studies offers legitimacy to the faith and to the clergy, so the state, in all its omnipotence, follows suit. The late German jurist Carl Schmitt held that the “omnipotent state” practices its legitimacy similarly.
Writing in his book, Political Theology, that “all significant concepts of the modern theory of the state are secularized theological concepts.”
As the age of monarchs came to a close in the early 20th century and the age of massive ideological states came into play, new concepts and ideas had to be developed, as they did not have a “mandate of heaven” to legitimize their power.
The United States government, for instance, has had an army of academics, experts, and celebrities to legitimize its actions.
Their political theology consists of some of the following: economics, law, and the hard sciences.
Analyzing these concepts, we can see how the state and its clergy weaponize them in order to maintain their power.
Economics
In 1994, Charlie Rose interviewed the British businessman James Goldsmith. Sir Goldsmith was campaigning in the European Union against the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a component of the WTO agreement. In 1995, 125 countries had signed onto the agreement, which included agricultural subsidies. Goldsmith warned in the interview that this would lead to massive emigration from third-world countries and that people in western society had come to serve an economic index that harms them.
He claimed that, if the GATT were adopted, we would be:
Creating mass immigration, which none of us could control. We would be destroying the towns, which are already largely destroyed. Look at Mexico; look at our own towns, and we’re doing this for economic dogma because we’ve got to get it done by the end of December. We can’t wait another year or two to see the results. Otherwise some political gimmick like Fast Track will go out of the way. What is this nonsense? Everything is based in our modern society on improving an economic index. How do we get greater economic growth? How do we grow the GNP? The result is, we are destroying the stability of our societies because we are worshiping the wrong god, economic index.
It is economic orthodoxy today that GDP must grow and that financial stimulus is one way of doing this. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States government issued stimulus checks from the low of $600 to a high of $1,400 per person. Assistant professor Christina Patterson of the University of Chicago suggested that when Congress pumped the money into the economy during COVID, the highest growth came from the individual household. Her suggestion: “Lawmakers should give the money to people who will spend most of it, rather than sock it away in savings.”
To suggest that the COVID stimulus grew the economy is preposterous. Some of the real effects of the “stimulus” are as follows: nearly 7,000 firms are considered “zombie firms” that are laden with debt, an increase of 30 percent over the last ten years; the average price inflation rate in 2022 was 8 percent, with a high of 9.1 percent in June 2022; grocery prices increased by 20 percent. The inflationary expansion of the money supply and adjustment of interest rates by the Federal Reserve during this time caused the increase in prices. The Federal Reserve propping up the stock market led to the rise of zombie firms because of malinvestment, but mainstream economists refuse to believe their orthodoxy is wrong.
Law
The United States has prided itself on being a land of law, where the rule of law reigns supreme and all its subjects, even the president, cannot usurp it. This is an illusion in our current political theology. America’s “supreme law of the land,” the Constitution, has been nothing more than a suggestion for much of its history. Whether that be censorship against the freedom of speech and press, as seen with the Espionage Act of 1917, or with the illegal mass surveillance by the NSA as exposed by Edward Snowden in 2013. Each case violated amendments in the Constitution, the 1st and 4th respectfully. Despite the controversy, the Espionage Act is still in effect and Edward Snowden is in exile in Russia.
Despite this, the establishment is still unwavering in their claims of being defenders of American law and democracy. What they’re really defending is their so-called mandate of heaven. Just as the Chinese Emperors had this supernatural mandate, the president, the Congress, and the bureaucrats each have the supernatural concept of “law” on their side. Hugo Krabbe, a Dutch political scientist, developed an explanation for the legitimacy of constitutional law in his book The Modern Idea of the State, saying:
We no longer live under the dominion of persons, either natural or fictitious legal persons, but under the dominion of norms [laws], of spiritual forces. In this is revealed the modern idea of the state…. These forces rule in the strictest sense of the word. Obedience can be freely rendered to these forces, for the very reason that they do proceed from the spiritual nature of mankind. (italics in original)
The entire constitutional legal order is, therefore, based on man’s sense of right and wrong. Just as Moses took down the Ten Commandments on Mount Sinai to the Israelites, so do we receive the law from the politicians on Capitol Hill and in the halls of bureaucratic departments. This is how the American establishment is able to maintain its power, by linking their positions of authority to American “morality” that they claim is linked to the law. Any attack against them or to the law is a threat to the American way of life and the regime will use all the means at its disposal to silence you. The former British PM, Tony Blair, had described himself and all who govern as a Moses-like figure in his book, On Leadership. He had stated:
I liken governing to leading people on a journey. You don’t just start by stepping out. You begin with a description of the destination—the house on the hill you might call it…. Think of Moses and the Exodus from Egypt. You might have thought that since he was leading his people out slavery and oppression, they would have been perpetually grateful. But they weren’t. They complained bitterly much of the time. They dissented. They rebelled. They frequently averred that they would have been better off if he had just left them where they were.
Many of the bureaucrats that rule, whether from places such as London, Brussels, or Washington DC, have a Messiah complex. All they do is for the benefit of the democratic system and, therefore, the whole Western world. From here, the regime can continue to manage its economy and wars without interference, as James Burnham said in his book The Managerial Revolution:
They proclaim the rules, make the law, issue the decrees. The shift from parliament to the bureaus occurs on a world scale. The actual directing and administrative work of the bureaus is carried on by new men, a new type of men. It is, specifically, the MANAGERIAL type. The active heads of the bureaus are the managers-in-government, the same, or nearly the same, in training, functions, skills, habits of thought as the managers-in-industry.
Because of the form the law has taken, we’re no longer ruled; we’re administered. The term “law and order” becomes merely a tool to contain what Carl Schmitt has called the “exception.” When the current regime finds the state of things abnormal, they can declare war on it. Whether they be abstract concepts such as “disinformation,” against populists like Donald Trump, or against ideologies like “fascism” and white supremacy.
Conclusion
In the past, kings could legitimize their power through alliances with a church or spiritual leader to show that their rule was established by a higher authority, an alliance of the throne and altar.
Today, politicians and bureaucrats use the “sciences” and their experts to establish their authority.
Economists at the Federal Reserve and IMF fund the government’s schemes, judges support laws via theories that violate the Constitution, and you, while dissenting, will follow the “new Moses” to the house on the hill.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 18:25 - After "Colossal" Exodus Of Subscribers, WaPo Boss Bezos Explains "The Hard Truth" About Not Endorsing Kamala
After “Colossal” Exodus Of Subscribers, WaPo Boss Bezos Explains “The Hard Truth” About Not Endorsing Kamala
In what is likely even more harrowing for the Op-Ed editors at The Washington Post, Jeff Bezos has just penned an explainer for his decision to not allow the liberal rag to endorse Kamala.
We present the opinion piece here in full (with some emphasis by us) – this is shocking levels of honesty!
The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media
The credibility gap can be bridged by independence.
In the annual public surveys about trust and reputation, journalists and the media have regularly fallen near the very bottom, often just above Congress. But in this year’s Gallup poll, we have managed to fall below Congress. Our profession is now the least trusted of all. Something we are doing is clearly not working.
Let me give an analogy. Voting machines must meet two requirements. They must count the vote accurately, and people must believe they count the vote accurately. The second requirement is distinct from and just as important as the first.
Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility.
Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election. No undecided voters in Pennsylvania are going to say, “I’m going with Newspaper A’s endorsement.” None. What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. A perception of non-independence. Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one. Eugene Meyer, publisher of The Washington Post from 1933 to 1946, thought the same, and he was right. By itself, declining to endorse presidential candidates is not enough to move us very far up the trust scale, but it’s a meaningful step in the right direction. I wish we had made the change earlier than we did, in a moment further from the election and the emotions around it. That was inadequate planning, and not some intentional strategy.
I would also like to be clear that no quid pro quo of any kind is at work here. Neither campaign nor candidate was consulted or informed at any level or in any way about this decision. It was made entirely internally. Dave Limp, the chief executive of one of my companies, Blue Origin, met with former president Donald Trump on the day of our announcement. I sighed when I found out, because I knew it would provide ammunition to those who would like to frame this as anything other than a principled decision. But the fact is, I didn’t know about the meeting beforehand. Even Limp didn’t know about it in advance; the meeting was scheduled quickly that morning. There is no connection between it and our decision on presidential endorsements, and any suggestion otherwise is false.
When it comes to the appearance of conflict, I am not an ideal owner of The Post. Every day, somewhere, some Amazon executive or Blue Origin executive or someone from the other philanthropies and companies I own or invest in is meeting with government officials. I once wrote that The Post is a “complexifier” for me. It is, but it turns out I’m also a complexifier for The Post.
You can see my wealth and business interests as a bulwark against intimidation, or you can see them as a web of conflicting interests. Only my own principles can tip the balance from one to the other. I assure you that my views here are, in fact, principled, and I believe my track record as owner of The Post since 2013 backs this up. You are of course free to make your own determination, but I challenge you to find one instance in those 11 years where I have prevailed upon anyone at The Post in favor of my own interests. It hasn’t happened.
Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation. Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions. The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves. (It wasn’t always this way — in the 1990s we achieved 80 percent household penetration in the D.C. metro area.)
While I do not and will not push my personal interest, I will also not allow this paper to stay on autopilot and fade into irrelevance — overtaken by unresearched podcasts and social media barbs — not without a fight. It’s too important. The stakes are too high. Now more than ever the world needs a credible, trusted, independent voice, and where better for that voice to originate than the capital city of the most important country in the world? To win this fight, we will have to exercise new muscles. Some changes will be a return to the past, and some will be new inventions. Criticism will be part and parcel of anything new, of course. This is the way of the world. None of this will be easy, but it will be worth it. I am so grateful to be part of this endeavor. Many of the finest journalists you’ll find anywhere work at The Washington Post, and they work painstakingly every day to get to the truth. They deserve to be believed.
The irony, of course, is that the alt-media space (and most non-liberal reporters) have been saying much of this for years – only to be cajoled, banned, black-balled, refused-access.
The question is – now that Bezos has smashed the glass ceiling of elite aloofness – will we see the usual tsunami of screaming, hysterical resignations (“I could never work for someone who said those words in his out loud voice”) – or…
Is this the turning point – is this the moment when media reverts back to news and not opinion?
Where will all those ‘resigning’ reporters go to work if other media owners follow Bezos’ path? Substack? How’s that working out for the liberalati?
We suspect (strongly) that this will not be a quick turnaround. The blinkered libtard defense of all that is righteously progressive (and therefore ‘the truth’) will not disappear overnight.
A generation of so-called ‘journalism students’ need to be de-programmed from “their truth” (preferably not in camps), and they (and their professors) won’t go quietly into the night, that is for sure.
And along those lines, shortly after Bezos dropped this op-ed, another major mainstream news outlet decided NOT to endorse Kamala…
Readership of mainstream media has fallen off a cliff and they are scrambling to salvage something, anything https://t.co/otTK7AxBUJ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 28, 2024
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* * *
As we detailed earlier, Jeff Bezos’ decision for The Washington Post not to endorse a presidential candidate this year has resulted in a total shitshow for the progressive newspaper, with staffing members having epic meltdowns and editor-at-large Robert Kagan (husband of Victoria Nuland) walking off the job on Friday. Even more troubling for the paper is the mass exodus of liberal subscribers being reported by NPR News on Monday afternoon.
According to two sources within the paper and familiar with the subscriber exodus, over 200,000 digital subscription cancellations had occurred by Monday afternoon.
Not all cancellations take effect immediately. Still, the figure represents about 8% of the paper’s paid circulation of 2.5 million subscribers, which includes print as well. The number of cancellations continued to grow Monday afternoon. -NPR
Former Post Executive Editor Marcus Brauchli told NPR, “The problem is, people don’t know why the decision was made. We basically know the decision was made, but we don’t know what led to it.”
The editorial page editor, David Shipley, told colleagues that WaPo’s publisher, Will Lewis, said the reason for the lack of a Harris-Walz endorsement was to create an “independent space” where the newspaper does not tell people for whom to vote.
WaPo has mostly endorsed Democrats for nearly a century (with only 3 Republicans since 1928):
• 1932 to 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat)
• 1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)
• 1952 & 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)
• 1960: John F. Kennedy (Democrat)
• 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat)
• 1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)
• 1972: George McGovern (Democrat)
• 1976 & 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)
• 1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)
• 1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)
• 1992 & 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)
• 2000: Al Gore (Democrat)
• 2004: John Kerry (Democrat)
• 2008: Barack Obama (Democrat)
• 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat)
• 2016: Hillary Clinton (Democrat)
• 2020: Joe Biden (Democrat)
• 2024: Neutral
Back to WaPo’s mass exodus of subs, Google search data shows “cancel Washington Post subscription” has gone parabolic nationwide since the weekend. Most cancelations are based in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia.
And Amazon cancellations, too?
This is true…
Nobody cares who WaPo endorses 😂
The writers are mostly insufferable, radical leftists and everyone knows it.
Sounds like some of the worst have left the paper, which is good.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 28, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The move comes after the Los Angeles Times declined to endorse Kamala Harris. And perhaps the rationale given the timing – just days before the presidential election – comes as the race is neck-and-neck with former President Trump.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 18:00 - Soros-Backed Philadelphia DA Sues To Block Elon Musk's $1 Million Voter Giveaway
Soros-Backed Philadelphia DA Sues To Block Elon Musk’s $1 Million Voter Giveaway
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,
Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner is suing to halt Elon Musk’s $1 million giveaway to swing state voters.
The suit, filed on Monday in the Common Pleas Court in Philadelphia, accused the tech billionaire and his America PAC supporting former President Donald Trump’s candidacy of “running an illegal lottery in Philadelphia, as well as throughout Pennsylvania.”
The case is based on Pennsylvania’s lottery and consumer protection laws.
Krasner, a Democrat, clarified in the complaint that is was not about state and federal laws that prohibit vote-buying.
“Running an illegal lottery and violating consumer protections is ample basis for an injunction and concluding that America PAC and Musk must be stopped, immediately, before the upcoming Presidential Election on November 5,” Krasner told the court in his suit.
“That is because America PAC and Musk hatched their illegal lottery scheme to influence voters in that election.”
Specifically, the district attorney alleged that Musk failed to meet Pennsylvania’s requirements for lottery operators, which mandate publishing a “complete set of lottery rules” and detailing measures to protect participants’ personal information. He also raised concerns that the selection of winners may have been rigged.
“Though Musk says that a winner’s selection is ‘random,’ that appears false because multiple winners that have been selected are individuals who have shown up at Trump rallies in Pennsylvania,” the lawsuit alleges, arguing that the lottery rules are “deceptive.”
Oh, here’s one more thing to consider…
Interesting https://t.co/E27HI97EyA
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 28, 2024
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The suit came after Musk announced the eighth winner of his super PAC’s $1 million prize in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, and doubled down on his pledge to give out awards to registered voters in seven battleground states every day until Election Day.
To be eligible, participants must sign a petition on the PAC’s website affirming their support of the First and Second Amendments to the Constitution. The online petition form says one has to be a registered voter to participate, but voting itself is not required.
“We’re trying to get attention for this very important petition to support the Constitution,” Musk told the audience at the Oct. 26 event. “We need the right to free speech; we need the right to bear arms.
“So we’re going to be giving out a million dollars every day through Nov. 5. All you have to do is sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment. That’s it. You don’t even have to vote. It’d be nice if you voted, but you don’t have to. And then just basically sign something you already believe in, and you get a [chance] to win a million dollars every day from now through the election.”
The America PAC didn’t respond to a request for comment by publication time.
President Biden thinks it is “totally inappropriate”…
President Biden says Elon Musk’s million-dollar giveaway to registered voters is “totally inappropriate.” https://t.co/Rjs7QHEYxG pic.twitter.com/hJbFnS6rBI
— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) October 28, 2024
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 17:40 - Ford Shares Sink After Company Reports Cost Improvements, But Guides Below Street Expectations
Ford Shares Sink After Company Reports Cost Improvements, But Guides Below Street Expectations
Ford shares jumped before tumbling after hours on Monday, as the legacy automaker reported guidance that was on the low end of expectations. Like many other automakers, Ford continues to grapple with balancing the costs of EV production, high interest rates and a tapped out American consumer.
Ford announced third-quarter revenue of $46 billion, with net income totaling $0.9 billion. This figure includes a $1 billion charge related to its electric vehicle business, which the company had previously disclosed. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the quarter came in at $2.6 billion.
Here are all the company’s Q3 figures versus estimates, via Bloomberg:
-
Total Revenue: $46.2 billion, up 5.5% year-over-year (y/y), surpassing the $43.07 billion estimate.
- Ford Blue Revenue: $26.2 billion, exceeding the $24.63 billion forecast.
-
Ford Model e Revenue: $1.2 billion, below the $1.42 billion estimate.
-
Ford Pro Revenue: $15.7 billion, above the $15.28 billion projection.
-
Adjusted EPS: 49 cents, matching analyst expectations.
-
Adjusted EBIT: $2.6 billion, up 18% y/y, though below the $2.77 billion estimate.
-
Adjusted EBIT Margin: 5.5%, improving from 5% y/y but short of the 6.3% forecast.
-
Ford Blue EBIT: $1.63 billion, missing the $1.77 billion estimate.
-
Ford Model e EBIT Loss: $1.22 billion, smaller than the expected loss of $1.34 billion.
-
Ford Pro EBIT: $1.81 billion, outperforming estimates.
The automaker’s Ford Pro division saw solid growth, with revenue rising 13%. Additionally, Ford Pro Intelligence, the company’s paid software service, reported a 30% increase in subscriptions, reaching nearly 630,000 users.
Ford also declared a regular fourth-quarter dividend of 15 cents per share. For the full year of 2024, the company now expects adjusted EBIT to reach approximately $10 billion.
Ford revised its full-year 2024 outlook, now projecting adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of approximately $10 billion. This is a narrowing from its previous guidance of $10 billion to $12 billion. However, the automaker maintained its forecast for adjusted free cash flow, which is expected to remain between $7.5 billion and $8.5 billion.
Here’s a full look at its year forecast:
- Adjusted EBIT: Now expected to be $10 billion, down from the prior range of $10 billion to $12 billion, and below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $10.63 billion.
- Ford Pro EBIT: Forecast unchanged at $9 billion, compared to the prior range of $9 billion to $10 billion.
- Ford Blue EBIT: Now expected at $5 billion, down from the previous range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion.
- Ford Model e EBIT Loss: Projected to be $5 billion, in line with earlier guidance of a $5 billion to $5.5 billion loss.
- Ford Credit EBT: Anticipated to reach approximately $1.6 billion.
- Capital Expenditure: Revised to $8 billion to $8.5 billion, compared to the previous forecast of $8 billion to $9 billion, and close to the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $8.39 billion.
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Maintained at $7.5 billion to $8.5 billion.
Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said: “We are in a strong position with Ford+ as our industry undergoes a sweeping transformation.”
He added: “We have made strategic decisions and taken the tough actions to create advantages for Ford versus the competition in key areas like Ford Pro, international operations, software and next-generation electric vehicles. Importantly, over time, we have significant financial upside as we bend the curve on cost and quality, a key focus of our team.”
Recall last month Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas had downgraded Ford on Chinese supply and rising delinquencies. Jonas mentioned affordability concerns in the U.S. market, claiming it is highly stretched, with inventory levels now back to pre-COVID norms.
Meanwhile, Auto Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) data shows a growing proportion of consumers are staying delinquent for longer, with higher severity rates. Although subprime defaults are lower in 2023 compared to 2022, prime defaults have increased.
The capital intensity required to compete in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Autonomous Vehicles (AV) is often overlooked, Jonas says. As the AI and data themes gain traction in the automotive sector, automakers will need to invest tens of billions in proprietary AI models.
Ford Vice Chair and CFO John Lawler commented: “We are remaking the company with Ford+ into a higher-growth, higher-margin, more capital-efficient and more durable business.”
“The work we have done over the past few years to restructure our global business — and tailor our product lineup to segments where we know our customers best — is driving continued growth and generating stronger and more consistent cash flow,” he added.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 17:20 -
- Israel Threatens Syria's Bashar al-Assad: You Might Be Next
Israel Threatens Syria’s Bashar al-Assad: You Might Be Next
Israeli government minister and war cabinet member Gideon Saar threatened Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday, warning that he will be “in danger” if his country continues to act as a “conduit” for Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah.
Saar – who rejoined Benjamin Netanyahu’s government late last month – said during a conference that Tel Aviv “missed an opportunity” to “collapse” Assad’s government, which was “saved” by Iran and Hezbollah.
Image edit by Enab Baladi Syria must not be permitted “under any circumstances to be a conduit for weapons supply from Iran to Hezbollah,” the minister went on to say, adding that “Israel must make clear to Assad that if he chooses to harm Israeli security in this manner, he places his regime in danger.”
Israel “will not agree to Hezbollah’s renewed buildup of power through Syria, and will not agree to the opening of a front against it from Syrian territory,” he said. “Removing Assad from the Iranian axis will have far-reaching consequences for Israel’s security.”
Israel was heavily involved in supporting extremist groups against the Syrian government at the start of the US-led regime change war against Damascus, which began in 2011.
Fighters from Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front were given Israeli air cover during the 2014 battles against Syrian government troops and Hezbollah in Quneitra. Wounded Nusra Front fighters were also treated at Israeli hospitals in the occupied Golan Heights.
Over the past several years, Israel’s air force has been waging an unofficial campaign of indiscriminate attacks against Syria, which aim to stifle the flow of weapons from Iran via Syria to the resistance in Lebanon.
According to Lebanese analyst and journalist Khalil Nasrallah, this unofficial campaign – dubbed the ‘battle between wars’ – has failed. Israeli attacks on Syria have increased since the start of the war in Gaza and Lebanon in October last year.
Since Israel’s massive escalation against Lebanon last month, nearly 2,000 people have been killed and over a million displaced. Israel has begun to target Lebanese–Syrian border crossings under the pretext that they are used to facilitate the delivery of Iranian weapons to Lebanon.
Jeffrey Sachs: We fought trillions of dollars worth of wars at the behest of the Israel Lobby, at the behest of Netanyahu. Netanyahu was the great cheerleader for the Iraq War. He was the great cheerleader for overthrowing Syria. He’s been the cheerleader for a war with Iran that… pic.twitter.com/yuVa3robxi
— 🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉 (@apocalypseos) October 26, 2024
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Hezbollah has promised its follower base recently that its military capabilities and weapons are in “great shape,” despite Israeli claims to the contrary. The group has not yet used its more sophisticated and destructive weaponry against Israel.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 17:00 - Fetterman: Trump Support In PA Is 'Astonishing,' Musk Factor Is 'Going to Really Matter'
Fetterman: Trump Support In PA Is ‘Astonishing,’ Musk Factor Is ‘Going to Really Matter’
Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman is working to help Kamala Harris win the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes, but can’t help but marvel at the intense, highly-visible support for Donald Trump he sees across the pivotal battleground.
A decorated pickup truck promotes Trump’s candidacy on Route 23 in Chester County, Pennsylvania — one of the critical “collar counties” surrounding Philadelphia (Tom Gralish/Philadelphia Inquirer) Agreeing “one hundred percent” with the idea that Trump has a special connection with Pennsylvanians, Fetterman told the New York Times that while Democrats may have trouble grasping it, the phenomenon is undeniable:
“There’s a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists. And anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing.
I was doing an event in Indiana County. Very, very red. And there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long, and it was dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it’s like, Where does this all come from? It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it’s like something very special exists there. And that doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just — it’s real.”
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 and lost it by 80,555 in 2020. While the 2024 race appears to be another close one, six of the last seven Pennsylvania polls tracked by RealClear Polling put Trump in the lead, by margins ranging from one point to three points. Polymarket bettors are bullish on a Trump win: As this is written, the prediction market gives Trump a 63% chance of winning the state. As for his odds of winning the nationwide contest, Trump has edged up to a 2024-campaign-high of 66.5%, while Harris has fallen to 33.7%.
Trump speaking at a June rally at Temple University, which is located in crime-ridden North Philly (AFP – Getty Images via New York Post) Fetterman also acknowledged the formidable campaign power of Elon Musk, who’s been sharing rally stages with Trump, holding his own town halls, and handing out million-dollar random prizes to registered swing-state voters who sign a petition:
“Now Musk is joining him. I mean, to a lot of people, that’s [Marvel Comics Iron Man billionaire alter-ego] Tony Stark. That’s the world’s richest guy. And he’s obviously and undeniably a brilliant guy, and he’s saying, ‘Hey, that’s my guy for president.’ That’s going to really matter.”
Addressing a key election issue, Fetterman distinguished himself from many in his party by reiterating the importance of having a secure border so American communities aren’t overwhelmed by people needing support.
Fetterman, who no longer identifies as a Progressive, chided fellow Democrats for being in a state of denial about the negative impact of a large and uncontrolled flow of destitute third-worlders. “[They’re] trying to tell people, ‘well, don’t believe your eyes, it’s going to be OK, it’s all working out.’ It’s not,” said the ever-slovenly Fetterman, who showed up for his video-recorded interview with the Times dressed something like a destitute third-worlder himself — in a black hoodie and gym shorts.
Fetterman added:
“I’m the most pro-immigration guy there is. But that has to be compatible with a secure border, and I will never listen to anyone’s other side until you can explain, like, how? How do we take care of them? Where did those resources come from? And where do they go? Nobody could provide a serious answer to that.”
John Fetterman describes the extraordinary connection Trump has with the people of Pennsylvania:
“Anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing.” pic.twitter.com/j0PyZd9aGP
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 26, 2024
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Fetterman concluded the interview by predicting that Trump will lose an election that he says is more “visceral” than issue-driven: “I do believe enough people will choose Harris. But it’s going to be much, much closer than anyone would want.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:40 - The "Righteously Pissed Off" Are Ready To Go To Work To Fix Whatever They Can
The “Righteously Pissed Off” Are Ready To Go To Work To Fix Whatever They Can
Authored by James Howard Kunstler,
Speaking of Abortion…
“Good rule of thumb: those who frequently use the word “disinformation” are the ones most likely to be pushing it”
– Elon Musk
What were they thinking after they shoved “Joe Biden” into the abyss, like an old refrigerator over the edge of the landfill, and afterward settled — instantly it appears, with no process at all — on Kamala Harris to lead the party to victory in the fall election?
I will tell you: they were not thinking at all.
The collective mind of the Democrat elite was a vast vacuum devoid of thought, mass, or light, like a corner of deepest space, lacking even a particle of cosmic debris to evoke the existence of existence.
Such mindlessness was the consummate expression of a party that for eight years worked every angle of political mental illness toward the loss of its mind, driven by whatever dark energy seeks escape from truth, life, and God — whatever is opposite of creation and being. What you are witnessing is a colossal act of being un-born. The party put out a call to the universe and the universe ordered. . . an abortion of the Democratic Party! You are reminded again: be careful of what you wish for.
And so do things stand one week before the election. You have not seen such a vivid demonstration of slowly-and-then-all-at-once since the implosion of Lehman Brothers as the collapse of the Democratic Party this fateful October. Poor Kamala is just collateral damage at this point. She goes out before some manufactured audience and seven-minutes onstage delivering a door-dash order of precooked blather is all she can stand before being overwhelmed by the emptiness and futility of her task. . . and then she flees back to the waiting limousine (and the chardonnay bottle).
Meanwhile, her allies — that is, the Democratic Party’s allies — play their own roles in this political abortion. The LA Times and the WashPo declined their usual proforma endorsements, two kisses of death. Those actions last week provoked nervous breakdowns in both newsrooms, cries of anguish, resignations, professional suicides. The news media find themselves in a peculiar position, having gone along for years with the gathering mental illness of the Democratic Party, like incompetent parents in a large dysfunctional family, offering unconditional support for their kids’ intolerable and unacceptable behavior.
They are flying to pieces now on the CNN chat panels. James Carville, the party’s shriveled Gollum, has gone to IV infusions of Jim Beam, seems like. Jake Tapper gets Sunday schooled by JD Vance and turns into a mewling cat-lady right before your eyes. Anderson Cooper goes all waxy and mute. Joy Reid surrenders to echolalia as her MSNBC fans are subjected to the guest list of P. Diddy’s “freak-offs,” ranting about Hitler. Lawrence O’Donnell is looking more and more like Vincent Price in Return of the Fly. Reality-optional hardly suffices to describe cable news these days.
You’ve got to ask: can they just let it be? Can they just let go of their insane Jacobin rebellion now and let it fade into history? Then, kick back, recuperate, get their minds right, put their house and family in order, and move on as a legit political faction in a functioning republic? Or, do they burn the asylum down?
The signals are troubling. They are chattering about Mr. Trump “using the military” against them in the months to come — as if the Abrams tanks were going to roll up to DNC headquarters and blast away. By now, you know that such thoughts expressed by Democratic pols and news pals are always projections of their own wishes. The New York Times published just such a classic paranoid projection exercise last week “. . . telling Americans that if he [Trump] wins, he plans to bend, if not break, our democracy.”
Surely it is too late, with early voting well underway, to stop any ballot harvesting and other election shenanigans as engineered by master fraudster Marc Elias. In fact, frauds are already being discovered (e.g., Lancaster County, PA.) Not a good look. It is exactly what a conspiracy (to commit election fraud) means in law, and the actual people who cooked the ballots and transported them are going to rat-out those who instructed them to do it. Wait for that, and wait for it to pop up elsewhere around the country. This time, watchers are watching, much more carefully.
Of course, you know there will be long delays, perhaps a week or more, before definitive election results will get posted. The country’s in a bad way, really frightened of what these desperate Democrats with their mitts still on the levers of power might do. Judge Merchan is scheduled to deliver his bit of mischief November 26 in the New York “Stormy Daniels hush money” case. You can bet that the Supreme Court will squash him like a sow-bug five minutes later and vacate his stupid case.
Reasonable observers (Rickards, Armstrong) are whispering about martial law and blood in the streets following the election. Yet Mr. Trump’s MAGA legions, appear supernaturally confident now, fortified with a sense of mission. They’re righteously pissed-off about all the hoaxes, the lawfare, the swarming illegal migrants, their squandered tax dollars, and much more. But they are ready to go to work, eager to put their shoulders to the wheel to fix whatever they can and, as they do, the death of the Democratic Party is one abortion they will not shed any tears over.
Another reminder of who we are as Americans and the mysterious workings of Providence: Father Mapple’s sermon — Orson Welles in the John Huston movie version of Melville’s Moby Dick:
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:20 - Stocks 'Squeeze' Higher, Crude Crushed, Bitcoin Bid Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week
Stocks ‘Squeeze’ Higher, Crude Crushed, Bitcoin Bid Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week
Today saw the quiet (short squeeze higher) before the storm of risk catalysts ahead this week (including 41% of SPX earnings and a handful of key macro data – JOLTS, GDP, PCE, NFP). But October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity was better than expected today, adding to momentum in the Citi US Macro Surprise Index…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘good’ data sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower with 2024 now a coin toss between 1 and 2 25bp cuts and 2025 down to pricing in just 3 cuts…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman’s trading desk noted that market volumes are down -5% and top of book depth is only $8.4mm with a “squeezy price action” evident in stocks: Bitcoin Equities (GSCBBTC1, +7.5%); China ADRs (GSXUCADR, +4.6%); Non-Profitable Tech (GSXUNPTC, +3%) & Most Short Rolling (GSCBMSAL, +2.8%) – third major squeeze day in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 stocks ended very marginally higher on the day after a short-squeeze open.
Source: Bloomberg
Bear in mind that today marks the first day of the estimated open window period for corporate buybacks with ~50% in open window today. We have already seen a number of companies start entering into new 10b5-1 plans over the past week.
Taking all that into consideration, Small Caps were the days best performer (squeeze) while Nasdaq was the laggard (barely holding on to unchanged). The S&P lagged The Dow…
VIX was lower today but the vol term structure for the S&P 500 is very much anticipating some malarkey over the next couple of weeks…
Source: Bloomberg
Bond yields pushed higher with the ‘Trump Trade’…
Source: Bloomberg
With yields up 3-4bps across the curve – but it was a wild day in bond-land with TSYs bid across Europe and then offered during most of the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day unchanged after extending Friday’s gains, falling back then inching back up to unch…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged back up within a few ticks of $70,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices were clubbed like a baby seal today as the Iran-Israel theatrics seemed to calm traders minds and erase geopolitical risk premium….
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, USA Sovereign risk continues to rise quietly behind the scenes…
Source: Bloomberg
…as the world bids on the ultimate ‘insurance’ bet into an election surprise (red or blue sweep)…
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:00 - Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow
Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow
Back in July and exactly one quarter ago, when the US Treasury published its debt issuance forecast for the balance of 2024, we said that the “anticipated numbers came close to our estimates for Q3, but well above our forecast for Q4” with the highlight being the Q4 debt issuance number which the Treasury estimated at $565 billion, $115 billion above our estimate of $450 billion (in part due to the Treasury higher TGA estimate of $700 billion vs our assumption of $650 billion).
Fast forward to today when ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, at 3pm ET the Treasury published its debt sources and uses forecast for the current and coming quarters, and it showed that the Treasury trimmed its estimate for borrowing for the current quarter, while raising more debt than it previously expected in the quarter ended June 30; The Terasury also continues to expect a $700 billion cash balance at the end of the year, just before the federal debt ceiling kicks back in. Then as we enter 2025, the Treasury expects to raise $823 billion in new debt in the first calendar quarter of 2025, in large part because it expects that the Treasury cash balance will rise by $150 billion to $850 billion, or in other words, the Treasury does not assume another debt ceiling crisis which would push the cash balance sharply lower in Q1 and onward.
Here are the details from the Treasury statement:
- During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $762 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $886 billion, more than the $850 billion initially expected. In July 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $740 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $22 billion higher largely because of a $36 billion higher ending cash balance partially offset by higher net cash flows.
- During the October – December 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $546 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The borrowing estimate is $19 billion lower than announced in July 2024, largely due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance partially offset by lower net cash flows.
- During the January – March 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $823 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. Of note,the end-of-March cash balance assumes another successful “enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase” which, assuming Trump becomes president, is virtually guaranteed will not happen. Indeed, should we get another debt ceiling crisis, the Treasury is quick to note that while the debt limit is not currently binding, “Treasury’s cash balance may be lower than assumed depending on several factors, including constraints related to the debt limit.” Translation: Q1 cash balances will be sharply lower than expected since the odds of a successful debt ceiling renegotiation are slim to none if Trump wins next week.
Here is the debt schedule in table format:
Source: Treasury Dealers’ expectations for the new borrowing estimate had varied ahead of Monday’s release. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. expected a cut to $529 billion. But the team at BNP Paribas predicted an increase to $600 billion, based in part on October and November making up nearly a quarter of the federal government’s annual deficit, a gap that has been steadily widening.
Meanwhile, the projected $823 billion borrowing need in Q1 2025 would be the highest since the Sept 2023 quarter.
“We estimate that the Treasury will begin to limit bill supply in March 2025 and will cut bill supply aggressively in Q2,” a team of strategists a TD Securities including Gennadiy Goldberg wrote in a note, which would be expected since by then the Reverse Repo buffer will be all used up. Before then, however, the TD team said that “with a debt ceiling increase or suspension likely in Q3, Treasury will then ramp up bill issuance aggressively as the cash balance is rebuilt to a more normal level.”
Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall didn’t expect officials this week to provide any color on their specific expectations for the upcoming debt ceiling timeline. He had predicted a $540 billion October-through-December borrowing estimate ahead of Monday’s release.
Today’s report comes ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement, when the Treasury will unveil its plans for long-term debt issuance. Bond dealers widely expect that the refunding auctions will total $125 billion for the third straight quarter. Many also expect a ramp up in Bill Issuance in the tail end of the year, which would be a big problem at a time when the Reverse Repo facility only holds just over $200 billion, and is in danger of being rapidly depleted, sparking another repo market crisis.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 15:48
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