- Russians Are Increasingly Likely To Protest
Last weekend, Moscow police arrested around 1,400 protestors, the largest gathering in a decade, after people met to contest the dubious circumstances surrounding city-wide elections. Nearly 150 people remain in custody, according to OVD-Info. Alexi Navalny, a prominent critic of the Kremlin, was arrested Wednesday for inciting anti-government protests. The opposition candidate was hospitalized Sunday after being exposed to an undefined chemical substance and released later in the week.
Local election officials alleged that nominating petitions for opposition candidates had insufficient signatures for the September 8th Duma election, which sparked the most recent and violent demonstrations. Police arrested many of the opposition candidates, and most remain behind bars.
The specific numbers surrounding the event remain unclear, but as Statista’s Sarah Feldman details, official police reports cite 1,074 arrests, while independent monitoring organizations reported 1,373 detentions. The peaceful protestors were broken up violently in what Amnesty International referred to as “indiscriminate use of force by police.” Police report 3,500 people gathered on Saturday, though independent reports and aerial footage put that figure anywhere between 8,000 to 20,000 protestors.
Last month, Russian police arrested about 500 people at a protest over the jailing of an investigative Moscow journalist. The journalist, Ivan Golunov, was arrested for allegedly dealing drugs, a charge he denies. In an unusual turn of events, the police released him and promised to punish those who allegedly framed him. Not only did hundreds take to the streets to protest the arrest, but the three main newspapers printed front-page headlines criticizing the arrest, an uncommon show of solidarity.
These widespread protests are unusual for the country but may grow more common.
You will find more infographics at Statista
According to Levada, an independent public opinion research organization, Russians are nearly twice more likely to protest now than they were two years ago. In February 2017, only about 12 percent of Russian respondents said they would probably participate in a public mass protest. By May 2019, about a quarter of respondents said they would likely participate in a public mass protest.
- The "Special Relationship" Is Collapsing… And That's A Good Thing
Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
British Ambassador Kim Darroch’s return to London from his failed mission in America is being hailed by many naïve commentators as yet another proof that President Trump is a crazed ego-maniac who cannot take criticism from a seasoned professional diplomat.
During the weeks since the “Darroch memo” scandal erupted, mainstream media has totally mis-diagnosed the nature of the breakdown in US-British relations, and has brushed over the most relevant evidence that has been brought to light by Darroch’s cables. This spinning of the narrative has made it falsely appear that the Ambassador merely criticized the President as “clumsy, diplomatically inept, unpredictable and dysfunctional” and was thus unjustly attacked by the President causing the poor diplomat to resign saying “the current situation is making it impossible for me to carry out my role as I would like.” Former British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt went so far as to say that Darroch was “the best of Britain” and encouraged all diplomats to continue to “speak truth to power.” International press on both sides of the ocean followed suit portraying Darroch as a hero among men.
Hog wash.
The reality is that Darroch’s messages to the British Foreign Office go much deeper and reveal something very ugly that challenges the deepest assumptions about recent history and modern geopolitics.
Sir Darroch and Britain’s Invisible Hand Exposed
Sir Darroch, (Knight Commander of St. Michael and St. George) is not your typical British diplomat. The Knight made a name for himself as a leading agent of Tony Blair while acting as Ambassador to the European Union from 2007-2011 in an effort to win international support for a regime change operation against Iran, Syria and Libya.
Blair and the highest levels of the British oligarchy had managed America as its “dumb giant” throughout the entire post-9/11 regime change program on the Middle East. While many have labelled this policy as “American”, we shall come to see that it was merely the carrying out of the “Blair Doctrine” announced in the 1999 speech in Chicagocalling for a post-nation state (post-Westphalian) world order.
It is important to remind ourselves that the dodgy WMD dossier had been crafted by the British Foreign Office before being used by neo con hawks such as John Bolton and Cheney as justification to blow up Iraq in 2003. It was also the earlier Anglo-Saudi sponsored BAE black operation run by Prince Bandar bin Sultan which funded and directed 9/11 earlier. As US Ambassador beginning in January 2016, Sir Darroch was instrumental in vetting Christopher Steele as “absolutely legit”. Steele’s “dodgy dossier” on Trump was used to justify the greatest witch hunt of a sitting President in history.
When viewed in the same light as the British-directed Russia-gating of the President, these memos shed valuable light upon the Byzantine methods which British intelligence has used to conduct its subtle manipulation of America for a very long time.
Trump Whisperers and Britain’s Other Tools
In his memos, Sir Darroch called for “flooding the zone” with Trump whisperers who can influence the President’s perceptions of the world and push him towards the British agenda on issues such as de-carbonization, Free Trade, and war with Iran.
Sir Darroch said to his superiors that “we have spent years building the relationships; they are the gatekeepers… the individuals we rely upon to ensure the U.K. voice is heard in the West Wing.” Who are these voices who been built up over years? National Security Advisor John Bolton is a long-standing visitor to the British embassy and former Chief of Staff John Kelly has had regular early morning breakfast dates. A Washington Post assessment of July 8th described Darroch’s “coterie- including Kellyanne Conway, Stephen Miller, Mick Mulvaney, Sarah Sanders and Trump ally Chris Ruddy” who have met at the embassy and “share about the President and his decision-making.”
Darroch also revealed that Trump’s resistance to the British position on war with Iran was not acceptable when the President chose to cancel an attack on Iran on June 21st after an America drone was shot down. Moments after Trump’s cancellation of the attack, a Darroch memo complained that Trump was “incoherent and chaotic” and that Trump could fall into line once he was “surrounded by a more hawkish group of advisers… Just one more Iranian attack somewhere in the region could trigger yet another Trump U-turn.”
Only two weeks after sending this cable, Britain orchestrated a crisis by seizing an Iranian ship on July 5th which snowballed into an Iranian seizure of a British tanker and greater danger of confrontation amongst the NATO axis and Iran.
The biggest confusion spread by the controllers of “officially accepted narratives” when assessing such things as 9-11, regime change wars, or the current debacle in Iran is located in a sleight of hand that asserts that America leads the British in the Special relationship. This belief in an “American empire” betrays a profound misunderstanding of history.
The Fallacious History of US-British “Friendship”
For much of the 19th century, Americans generally had a better understanding of their anti-colonial origins than many do today. Even though the last official war fought between Britain and America was in 1812-15, the British failure to destroy America militarily caused British foreign policy to re-focus its efforts on undermining America from within… generally through the dual infestation of British-sponsored ideologies contaminating the American school system on the one hand and British banking practices of Wall Street’s ruling class on the other. This attack from within required more patience, but was more successful and led to the near collapse of America in 1860 when Lord Palmerston quickly recognized the Southern slave power’s call for independence from the Union. Britain’s covert military support for the Confederate cause was exposed by the end of that war and led to Britain’s payment of $15 million settlement to America as part of the Alabama Claims in 1872.
As the informative 2010 Lpac documentary “The Special Relationship is for Traitors” showcased, during the early 20th century leading American military figures like Brig. General Billy Mitchell understood Britain’s role in supporting the Confederacy and Britain’s manipulation of global wars. General Mitchell fought against the “special relationship” tooth and nail and led the military to create “War Plan Red and War Plan Orange” to defeat Britain under the context of an eventual war between the English-speaking powers. These plans were made US military doctrine in 1930 and were only taken off the books when America decided it was more important to put down London’s Fascist Frankenstein threat than fight Britain head on in WWII.
The Rhodes Scholars Take Over
Before the “Churchill gang” (that Stalin accused of poisoning FDR) could take control of America, Franklin Roosevelt described his understanding of the British influence over the US State Department when he told his son:
“You know, any number of times the men in the State Department have tried to conceal messages to me, delay them, hold them up somehow, just because some of those career diplomats over there aren’t in accord with what they know I think. They should be working for Winston. As a matter of fact, a lot of the time, they are [working for Churchill]. Stop to think of ’em: any number of ’em are convinced that the way for America to conduct its foreign policy is to find out what the British are doing and then copy that!” I was told… six years ago, to clean out that State Department. It’s like the British Foreign Office….”
With FDR’s death, these British operatives took over American foreign policy and wiped out the remaining pro-American forces in the State Department, disbanding the OSS and reconstituting America’s intelligence services as the MI6-modelled CIA in 1948.
In 1951, the Chicago Tribune published a incredible series of exposes by journalist William Fulton documenting the cancerous penetration of hundreds of Oxford Trained Rhodes Scholars who had taken over American foreign policy and were directing America into a third world war. On July 14, 1951 Fulton wrote:
“Key positions in the United States department of state are held by a network of American Rhodes scholars. Rhodes scholars are men who obtained supplemental education and indoctrination at Oxford University in England with the bills paid by the estate of Cecil John Rhodes, British empire builder. Rhodes wrote about his ambition to cause “the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British empire.” The late diamond and gold mining tycoon aimed at a world federation dominated by Anglo-Saxons.”
Sir Kissinger Opens the Floodgates
A star pupil of William Yandall Elliot (a leading Rhodes Scholar based out of Harvard) was a young misanthropic German named Henry Kissinger.
A decade before becoming a Knight of the British Empire, Kissinger gave a remarkable speech at a May 1981 event on British-American relations at London’s Royal Institute for International Affairs. At this event Kissinger described the opposing world views of Churchill vs. Roosevelt, gushing that he much preferred the post-war view of Churchill. He then described his time working for the British Foreign Office as Secretary of State saying:
“The British were so matter-of-factly helpful that they became a participant in internal American deliberations, to a degree probably never practiced between sovereign nations… In my White House incarnation then, I kept the British Foreign Office better informed and more closely engaged than I did the American State Department… It was symptomatic”.
As Kissinger spoke these words, another anglophile traitor was being installed as Vice-President of America. George Bush Sr. was not only the son of a Nazi-funding Wall Street tool and former director of the CIA, but was also made a Knight of the Grand Cross and Order of Bath by Queen Elizabeth in 1993. The most disastrous foreign policies enacted under Reagan’s leadership during the 1980s can be traced directly back to these two figures.
The Potential Revival of the ‘Real’ America
Think what you may of Donald Trump. The fact is, that he has not started any wars which a Jeb or Hillary were happy to launch. He has reversed a regime change program active since 9/11. He has fought to put America into a cooperative position with Russia. He has undone decades of WTO/City of London free trade. He has called for rebuilding productive industries following through by reviving the protective tariff. To top it off, he has been at war with the British-directed deep state for over three years and survived. Now that Bolton has been outed as an ally of Sir Darroch, there is an open acknowledgement that Trump is gearing up to replace the neocon traitor as we speak. Trump has many problems but being a British asset is not one of them.
If you’ve made it this far, you shouldn’t be surprised that the collapse of the special relationship is a very good thing, since America now has a real opportunity to rediscover its true anti-imperial nature by working with Russia, China, India and other nations under the new cooperative framework of space exploration and the Belt and Road Initiative.
- Israel Fought Behind The Scenes To Drop Turkey From US F-35 Program: Report
A new bombshell report making headlines in Israeli media alleges Tel Aviv went to great lengths to exert pressure on Washington to block the sale of US F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey.
“Israel worked behind the scenes to ensure the United States blocked the sale of its F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey as part of its efforts to preserve its military qualitative edge in the region,” The Times of Israel revealed Thursday, citing a prior Israeli Channel 12 report.
“Israel in recent months lobbied Washington to drop Ankara from the F-35 program after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan went ahead with a purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system that would give Turkey advanced air capabilities,” the report continued.
Though neither US nor Israeli officials have commented on the alleged lobbying campaign, it’s consistent with the fact that Israel has seen growing Russian-Turkish defense ties as a significant threat to both its anti-Iran policy and actions in Syria. And further, Ankara and Tel Aviv have a long history of clashing over Palestinian related issues.
Last month the White House announced Turkey has been effectively booted from the F-35 program for procuring Russia’s S-400 anti-air defense system, further entrenching Moscow’s growing influence and security arc in the Middle East.
Crucially, both Israel and Turkey were set to be the only countries outside the United States which possessed the advanced Lockheed-made fighter. But it appears Israel did its best to ensure it’d be the only one, as The Times of Israel noted:
Israel has agreed to purchase at least 50 F-35 fighter jets from the US defense contractor Lockheed Martin. So far, 16 aircraft have been delivered, and the remaining planes are slated to arrive batches of twos and threes until 2024.
Israel is the second country after the US to receive the F-35 from Lockheed Martin and one of the few allowed to modify the state-of-the-art aircraft, known in Israel as the Adir.
Compare this to the more than 100 Turkey was slated to receive at around $1.4 billion before the program was halted.
The White House has long been on record as saying the American fighter jet program “cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.”
Aside from the more pressing issues of both Russian and Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and growing Russia-Turkey defense ties, Israel and Turkey also stand on opposite sides of the Kurdish question.
First batch of S-400 air defense system components were unloaded from a Russian transport aircraft at Murted military airport in Ankara, Turkey, on July 12, 2019. While President Erdogan has lately reiterated plans to crush “outlawed” armed Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq, Israeli military and intelligence has over the past couple of years been rumored to be active in training and supporting these very groups alongside its US ally.
All of this and more translates to Tel Aviv viewing Turkey’s large-scale integration into the F-35 stealth program as a serious long term threat to its security interests in the region.
- Lessons For America From India's War Against Muslim Illegal Migrants
Authored by Daniel Greenfield via Sultan Knish blog,
India’s 2,582 mile border with Bangladesh is even longer than America’s 1,954 mile border with Mexico.
The two countries are divided not only by that border, but by religion. India has an 80% Hindu majority and a rising 13% Muslim minority. Bangladesh has a 90% Muslim majority. And the tide of Muslim migration from Bangladesh to India began to shift the population balance in some Indian states.
India has spent decades building fences, topping them with barbed wire, and installing lights. The lights are there so that the guards can see. Unlike America, there are guards, they have guns, and they shoot.
What makes America’s border different from those of so many other countries isn’t the lack of fencing. Smugglers, traffickers, and assorted criminals can often find weak points in any security setup. In most countries, the defense of the border is seen as a national security issue backed by real firepower.
America’s Border Patrol has less than 20,000 people. India’s Border Security Force (BSF) has 186 battalions and 257,363 people. It’s a paramilitary organization with an intelligence network, ten artillery units, air and marine wings, and canine and even camel units. And the weapons aren’t just there for show.
Over 1,000 illegal infiltrators have been killed trying to enter India from Bangladesh in over a decade.
BSF personnel are allowed to shoot on sight. Boats are used to monitor river areas that can’t be fenced in. Air units watch from the sky. And intelligence units gather information on smuggling gangs. The first and final line of defense though comes from men with rifles watching the fences and the shadows.
When a Bangladeshi teenage girl illegally entering India was shot, leftist activists hoped to use her to stop the zero-tolerance border security policy. But India kept building fences and defending them.
And now it’s turning to the problem of the millions of illegal Bangladeshi Muslim ‘infiltrators’ in India.
Last year, around the same time that the media was fulminating over remarks by President Trump, Amit Shah, the head of India’s conservative ruling BJP, was being attacked for calling illegal aliens, “termites”.
“Millions of infiltrators have entered our country and are eating the country like termites. Should we not uproot them?” Shah asked voters in West Bengal, which is threatened by illegal Bangladeshis.
“A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government will pick up infiltrators one by one and throw them into the Bay of Bengal.”
Earlier that year, Assam, the part of India where the anti-illegal movement was born, began cracking down on the invading population with a “detect-delete-deport” program. Assam’s program spotted 4 million illegal infiltrators in the state of 33 million. Many of them had made themselves at home in India, but lacked birth certificates and other documents showing that they were citizens.
Just as when it comes to border security, India’s twin assets are determination and manpower.
The “detect-delete-deport” program began by digitizing old paper records and then checking them against the documents that were submitted by the population. Tens of thousands of government employees reviewed millions of documents and then began checking and cross-referencing them. The lies weren’t hard to spot as when dozens of people claimed to have been born from the same mother.
The work is far from finished but the number of Muslim illegal aliens could climb as high as 20 million, and so could the deportations, once “detect-delete-deport” is deployed across the entire country.
India’s National Register of Citizens is being used to clarify who belongs in the country and who doesn’t. Those who are unable to prove their citizenship potentially face the Foreigners’ Tribunals, courts that ask the accused to prove their citizenship. If the illegals fail to do so, they can be sent to prison and then deported. If they try to dodge the courts, the machinery of the system will move forward anyway.
Assam’s 1,000 Foreigners’ Tribunals have been busy, but every state in India has now been given the authority to create its own Tribunals. And detention camps are being built in Assam to hold illegals.
While much of the machinery is in place, the actual process of deporting millions of illegals may prove challenging. But India had previously been able to negotiate agreements with Bangladesh that made the thousands of miles of border fencing possible by using economic and political leverage. Convincing Bangladesh to accept millions of its own people, some who have been in India for a generation, may be harder, but BJP leaders clearly believe that it can be done. And financial arrangements may be a small price to pay for securing India’s future and preventing the rise of Islamic violence in affected areas.
India is also moving against the 40,000 strong Rohingya illegal Muslim population which have been a problem in that country, as well as in Myanmar. But India is also making it clear that it will respect legitimate refugees by providing sanctuary to Hindu and Buddhist refugees fleeing Islamic violence.
There are important lessons from this effort for the United States in our immigration challenges.
India’s Modi has been dubbed a natural counterpart to Trump. Under Modi, the BJP harnessed populist sentiments to begin executing an ambitious plan for tackling India’s longstanding immigration problems. The BJP understood that it had to run on migration issues to gain political sanction for a crackdown. Popular support from Indians allowed the government to ignore protests by leftist activist groups like Amnesty and Human Rights Watch, the domestic opposition, and even the United Nations.
The BJP understood that border security alone would never be enough. Not unless the illegal infiltrators were made to understand that there was no future for them even if they did make it across the border.
Building a border wall is a partial answer. But the real answer lies in using military force to secure the border, ending the processing of asylum requests, and distinguishing Americans from illegal aliens.
India’s example shows that these things can be done. And if India can do them, America certainly can.
Despite the media’s frenzied shrieks, there is popular support for the Trump administration’s measures from deportation to border security to adding a citizenship question to the census. The obstacle is a radical judiciary determined to protect an illegal base of Democrat voters and voting districts.
The illegal migrant issue is not about human rights or racism. It’s about political power. Democrats opposed Vietnamese refugees for the same reason that they now support open borders with Mexico.
The BJP understood this and campaigned by targeting the left-wing opposition as a party of illegals. Its fundamental argument was that leftists had chosen foreign migrants over the country’s own poor.
That was a winning argument in India. It’s a winning argument in America.
- Berkeley Couple Support Their Children Aged 4 & 8 In Decision To 'Transition'
It’s not child abuse – it’s being an accepting and loving parent.
In a Daily Mail article published this week, Ben and Sara Kaplan, of Berkeley, Calif., explained why they allowed their two young children to transition at the ages of eight and four.
The family is sharing its story in an attempt to “break the taboo” around trans children following studies that showed a rash of suicides among trans children who weren’t accepted by their families.
Their two children, James, who transitioned from female to male, and Olivia, who transitioned from male to female, say that before the transition, they felt like they had “a piece missing.”
But at the age of eight, James Kaplan, now 11, who was born a biological girl, realized he had to transition from female to male.
And just a few years later a then-four-year-old Olivia Kaplan, now seven, who was born a biological boy, realized she wanted to transition from male to female. Their names at birth have not been revealed.
The family are now sharing their story in the hopes of breaking the taboo around trans children, after statistics revealed an alarming number of suicide among young transgender people whose families are not supportive.
Their parents were surprised when then-8-year-old James (whose birth name wasn’t published, along with the birth name of his sibling) came to them and expressed the desire to transition. They were even more surprised when their then-four-year-old son expressed a similar desire a couple of years later.
But having just been through the transition process, they knew how to handle the transition process as parents. Though one thing they didn’t do: Question whether their extremely young child might simply been copying what their oldest child was doing.
Even their oldest child felt “competitive” when he learned that his younger sibling wanted to transition.
However, like with most siblings, he admits there was the usual competitiveness.
“I reacted to Olivia transitioning like most older siblings would – even though I’m trans,” James explained. “I was a little confused at first and got a little defensive because I thought it was my thing.”
“But after like a day of that, I saw that Olivia is a girl and she always will be.”
For Olivia, having her big brother understand was key: “He was my first supporter and it made me feel very confident that I would have many more.”
James, who is now 11, has begun taking hormone blockers to put off the onset of puberty and meunstration, which he said would be “distressing.” It will also prevent him from developing breasts. He’s also waiting to start taking testosterone, which would be the first non-reversible step in his transition. Though he’s already legally changed his name to James.
Their youngest child won’t begin similarly irreversible steps in her transition for a few more years, but when the time comes, she will likely start with a hormone blocker. The parents also insisted that they “parent” their kids “for those who think we just follow our children around doing nothing.”
The two parents insisted that they’re not ‘imposing an agenda’ on their children – they’re simply supporting their decisions to be who they truly are.
Ben and Sara want to educate those who accuse them of imposing an agenda on their kids.
“The reason that we chose to be public at this point is because having two transgender children is not that unique, but it’s very difficult to advocate for the second child without it looking like there’s a problem in the house,” Sara explained.
“It looks like there is an agenda,” she said. “Like the mother is sick, and that’s not the case here.”
Instead, the parents insisted that they were “on the right side of history.” They say their research has “proven” that they are doing the right thing.
“We are on the right side of history and we are not going to allow our kids to feel shame or fear based on other people – they deserve to feel loved and accepted.”
“We are going about this because we are listening to our children and because we are doing a lot of research, which has proven we are doing the right thing,” Ben added.
But if that’s true, how come so many readers are skeptical?
- US Eyeing Militarization Of Antarctic As Well As Arctic
Authored by Andrea Germanos via CommonDreams.org,
Treaty that “has been the cornerstone of governance” for most southerly continent could soon be torn up…
A top U.S. military general said Tuesday that the country will be looking at militarizing the Antarctic just as it has the Arctic.
Air Force general Charles Brown, commander of Pacific Air Force, made the remarks in an address at The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Arlington, Virginia.
Brown pointed to moves already made by Russia and China, a self-declared “near-Arctic state,” and noted both nations “have a presence in the Antarctic right now” as well as the Arctic.
At several points, Brown mentioned 2048, which is set to be a key moment for the Antarctic—a region “within increasingly convenient reach“—because it’s when the Antarctic Treaty can go under review.
Brown called the Arctic “kind of a precursor to the way I look at the Antarctic.”
He continued, “The capabilities we have in the Arctic are the same capabilities we probably want to have in the Antarctic.”
He added that icebreakers were a lacking capability – “Russia has much more than we do.” And, because the U.S. military will still need the few it has to operate in the Arctic, “we may need more” to bring them to Antarctica.
As geopolitics professor Klaus Dodds wrote at The Conversation last year, the looming review plunges “the future of the continent into uncertainty.”
For six decades, the treaty has been the cornerstone of governance for our most southerly, harshest and most pristine continent. It has fostered scientific research, promoted international cooperation, ensured non-militarization, suspended territorial claims and strengthened environmental protections. Its guardians are the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs)—chief among them the U.S., U.K., Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Norway, Germany, Chile, and Argentina. […]
At present ACTPs are focusing on improving cold weather technology and gaining confidence in Antarctic conditions, but it might not be long until they have the capability and incentive to do more. China is already using underwater vehicles to search for gas hydrates and metallic nodules in the South China Sea. Ominously, underwater mining and deep-sea energy prospecting seem set to be growth industries over the coming decades. […]
After 2048, Antarctica could be carved up between nations like every other land mass and surrounding ocean, and slowly relieved of its resources.
The Pentagon is already mapping out moves on the Earth’s northernmost region, announcing (pdf) this year that it is looking at “enhancing Arctic operations.”
“From the security standpoint and the militarizing of the Arctic,” U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Karl Schultz said earlier this month, “that is probably the future place for a contentious situation.”
Air Force chief scientist Richard Joseph, who this month led a team to visit military installations in Alaska, echoed that message.
“The Arctic region,” Joseph said in a statement, “is becoming increasingly important and central to defense of our homeland.”
- America's Poverty Trap: How A Small Financial Setback Can Spiral Into An Inescapable Disaster
Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,
The problem with poverty in America is that the system is designed to keep you poor. Maybe it’s just because poor people are easier to control. I have written before about how to survive when you’re so broke that you can’t pay your bills and while the comments were largely supportive, there are always a few smug, superior souls who blame the people who are struggling for their problems. The thing is, poverty is a trap, and one seeming small setback can spiral into a disaster from which you cannot extricate yourself.
When you are living a financially fragile life, it seems like someone somewhere is trying to keep you poor. Why is it so hard to get ahead? Well, because the system is rigged against you when you’re living paycheck to paycheck with fee after fee after fee. Because what makes more sense than charging someone who already can’t pay their bills even more money?
Land of the Fee
First, there are the fees. We’ve written here about undisclosed fees that most people are being hit with, but bank fees are even worse.
If you bounce a payment by so much as a penny, then you are hit with a charge from your bank and most times, a charge from the business that was taking the payment from your account. Most banks charge anywhere from $25-$38.50 when you have non-sufficient funds for a payment. Businesses charge in the same range, so that means that if one payment goes awry, you can lose $50-$77 in the blink of an eye.
Banks love NSF and overdraft fees. Why? Because in 2017, Americans paid $34 billion in fees for not having enough money to cover a payment.
Some of these fees come from the automatic payments that come from our accounts. Mortgage, car payments, insurance payments, and other bills are often automatically debited. Other fees come when a person has “overdraft protection” on their debit cards. This is when a person doesn’t have enough money in his or her account for a debit to go through but their credit union or bank covers it anyway.
The government’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explains just how insane these fees are. (Emphasis mine)
Today, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released a report that raises concerns about the impact of opting into overdraft services for debit card and ATM transactions. The study found that the majority of debit card overdraft fees are incurred on transactions of $24 or less and that the majority of overdrafts are repaid within three days. Put in lending terms, if a consumer borrowed $24 for three days and paid the median overdraft fee of $34, such a loan would carry a 17,000 percent annual percentage rate (APR).
“Today’s report shows that consumers who opt into overdraft coverage put themselves at serious risk when they use their debit card,” said CFPB Director Richard Cordray. “Despite recent regulatory and industry changes, overdrafts continue to impose heavy costs on consumers who have low account balances and no cushion for error. Overdraft fees should not be ‘gotchas’ when people use their debit cards.” (source)
So to be clear, the banking system is set up to take the most money from people with the lowest balances.
One NSF or overdraft fee can unleash financial chaos.
Imagine you have a bill that attempts to debt from your account twice, costing you $50. Then another payment, a smaller one, that would have gone through if the other bill hadn’t gotten there first, bounces too. Now you’ve lost $75. It’s pretty easy to see how another payment – even one for a few bucks, could bounce next. Now you’ve lost $100.
By the time you actually have the money to cover all the fees, how on earth are you supposed to pay the bill that put your in the negative in the first place?
I know what a lot of you are thinking. “I’ve never bounced a check in my life” or “these people need to get control of their spending and they wouldn’t have these fees.”
But this vicious spiral can be caused by something as seemingly trivial as a person’s pay being direct-deposited one hour late on payday. It can occur when payday is on a Saturday but your funds won’t be deposited until Monday but your debits are still coming out regardless that it’s a weekend. It isn’t always personal irresponsibility that causes a person to be unable to cover the payments coming out of his or her account.
Once you’re in the hole for a couple hundred dollars in NSF or overdraft fees, how in the world do you get out? If your financial situation is so precarious that one bounced payment causes this cartwheel of non-sufficient funds, how are you supposed to ever get caught up?
And that’s not the only fee a person struggling financially can expect.
Next, there are late fees and the re-connect fees.
If one of the payments that went awry in your overdraft avalanche happens to be a utility bill, things get even worse for a person who is struggling. Particularly if you aren’t able to cover the bill in sufficient time to keep your utilities from getting shut off. How much you’ll be charged varies by company but if they really feel like you’ll have trouble paying in the future, they stick it to you, making it nearly impossible to get your power or heat turned back on. Here are some examples
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PG&E: “To restore service, you must pay the full amount due. You may also be required to pay a deposit twice your average monthly bill to re-establish credit.”
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Coast Electric: $35-50 fee to reconnect service, $6.50 late fee, $35 NSF fee, and potentially even a $35 collection fee
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Talgov: $28.50 each for gas, water, and electric
They can be charged late fees by all sorts of businesses. Now they’re really in trouble.
How do they bail themselves out of this mess?
A payday loan can be one way a desperate person chooses to get out of financial trouble.
Payday loans are short-term cash loans based on the borrower’s personal check held for future deposit or on electronic access to the borrower’s bank account. Borrowers write a personal check for the amount borrowed plus the finance charge and receive cash. In some cases, borrowers sign over electronic access to their bank accounts to receive and repay payday loans.
Payday loans range in size from $100 to $1,000, depending on state legal maximums. The average loan term is about two weeks. Loans typically cost 400% annual interest (APR) or more. The finance charge ranges from $15 to $30 to borrow $100. For two-week loans, these finance charges result in interest rates from 390 to 780% APR. Shorter term loans have even higher APRs. Rates are higher in states that do not cap the maximum cost.
CFPB found that 80 percent of payday borrowers tracked over ten months rolled over or reborrowed loans within 30 days. Borrowers default on one in five payday loans. Online borrowers fare worse. CFPB found that more than half of all online payday instalment loan sequences default. (source)
Now a bad situation has gotten even worse. You’re only getting a portion of your paycheck which means that you’re not going to be able to meet future bills. You’re going to face more late fees, more NSF charges, and more overdraft interest.
The cycle is vicious.
If you’ve ever wondered why broke people tend to stay broke, this is why. Unless the person in financial trouble gets some kind of windfall, they’re going to have great difficulty getting back on their feet. In many cases, it’s impossible.
And that isn’t the only bad part of the war on the poor. Homelessness has been practically criminalized. Here are some examples of how poor or homeless people can get in trouble with the law.
The criminalization of homelessness refers to measures that prohibit life-sustaining activities such as sleeping/camping, eating, sitting, and/or asking for money/resources in public spaces. These ordinances include criminal penalties for violations of these acts.
There are multiple types of criminalization measures which include:
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Carrying out sweeps (confiscating personal property including tents, bedding, papers, clothing, medications, etc.) in city areas where homeless people live.
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Making panhandling illegal.
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Making it illegal for groups to share food with homeless persons in public spaces.
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Enforcing a “quality of life” ordinance relating to public activity and hygiene. (source)
Of course, not all people financially struggling are out on the streets. Many are quietly struggling in middle-class neighborhoods, in nice homes, driving a late-model car. If they’re upside down in their mortgage or car loan, selling those items is not an option because then they’ll still be making the payments but be without a way to get to work or a place to live.
If they file for bankruptcy, good luck to them getting a cheap place to reside.
Things get harder.
And harder.
And harder.
How to avoid these traps
You may already be in financial trouble, or you may just be in a situation with no emergency fund. If that’s the case, you should know that it only takes something small to send you straight to financial disaster.
Here are a few tips to help you avoid the pitfalls of poverty.
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Don’t set up automatic payments. Some businesses force you to do this, but often you can cancel the autopay and pay yourself.
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Have one bank account for bills, and one for spending money. This way, you don’t accidentally spend money earmarked for utilities or your car payment.
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Don’t have overdraft protection on your account, particularly if the fees and interest rates are high.
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Don’t turn to payday loans. This is a cycle from which it’s nearly impossible to extricate yourself.
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Build an emergency fund. Even if you only put in $10 a paycheck, you’re still giving yourself a little bit of a cushion.
Know that you aren’t alone if you’re facing these kinds of problems. Many people in our country are deeply in debt, living paycheck to paycheck, and struggling to pay for basic necessities like food, rent, and medical bills.
Don’t look for things to become more affordable or for your paycheck to magically increase. That’s not the direction we’re going in America. Your only options are to reduce your expenses, eat cheaper food, and bring in some extra cash. If you get a windfall, use it wisely to build a financial cushion.
The American poverty trap keeps poor people poor. And it’s easier to fall into than you think.
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- July Payrolls Preview: Beware The Census Hiring Surge
Now that the Fed is once again extremely sensitive to incoming data – or at least that’s what the market thinks – and especially bad incoming data as today’s disappointing ISM demonstrated, which sent stocks surging on hopes of more rate cuts (at least until Trump’s subsequent tariff shocker), tomorrow’s payrolls report is suddenly extremely important for the Fed’s reaction function: a strong beat has the potential to crush stocks and send yields sharply higher, and of course, vice versa. That said, a beat to the relatively modest consensus expectation of 165K is virtually assured due to the wildcard that is census hiring which will be between 10K and 50K, and which the BLS will surely fully milk following political instructions from “above.”
So with that in mind, here is a summary of what consensus expects tomorrow, courtesy of RanSquawk:
US nonfarm payrolls are seen coming in at 165k in July, a reading which would push the three-month average down to 153k from 171k in June. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, though the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data does signal some potential downside. We have seen only a partial slate of business surveys ahead of the NFP report, and they seem to signal some cooling in labour market momentum.
EXPECTATIONS:
- Non-farm Payrolls: Exp. 165k, Prev. 224k.
- Unemployment Rate: Exp. 3.7%, Prev. 3.7%. (FOMC currently projects 3.6% unemployment by the end of 2019, and 4.2% in the longer-run).
- U6 Unemployment Rate: Prev. 7.2%.
- Labour Force Participation: Prev. 62.9%.
- Avg. Earnings Y/Y: Exp. 3.1%, Prev. 3.1%;
- Avg. Earnings M/M: Exp. +0.2%, Prev. +0.2%.
- Avg. Work Week Hours: Exp. 34.4hrs, Prev. 34.4hrs.
- Private Payrolls: Exp. 160k, Prev. 191k; Manufacturing Payrolls: Exp. 5k, Prev. 17k; Government Payrolls: Prev. 33k
The Street expects 164k nonfarm payrolls will be added to the US economy in July, following 224k in June (12-month trend rate is 192k). Fed Chair Powell looks at a three-month rolling average of headline payrolls, which after the upside in June, is running at a clip of 171k, and has been ticking higher for three straight months — a consensus 164k in July would knock the three-month average back to 153k.
Looking at just one bank’s forecasts, Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls increased 190k in July, 25k above consensus of +165k. While July employer surveys declined on net, jobless claims and job availability measures remain at very strong levels, and we also expect a boost from Census hiring worth 10-20k. Additionally, Hurricane Barry struck the Gulf Coast too late in the survey week to have a significant impact on the report.
JOBLESS CLAIMS:
Weekly claims data within the survey periods is unchanged on June, suggesting some stability; initial jobless claims were 216k in the 13th July week vs 217k in the 15th June week; for reference the four-week moving average was also stable, falling slightly from 219k to 218.75k.
BUSINESS SURVEYS:
Ahead of this month’s payrolls report, we do not have the release of the non-manufacturing ISM. The manufacturing ISM did not bode well for the labour market data, with the employment sub-index falling more than expected, to 51.7 from 54.5. This theme was also seen in the final Markit manufacturing PMI data for July, where the employment index cooled to 49.8 from 50.8 in June (entering contraction territory) (NOTE: the flash reading showed a print of 49.6, which was the lowest since the GFC, which Capital Economics says was consistent with the manufacturing sector shedding 30k jobs per month). The services equivalent reports have not been released ahead of this month’s payrolls data.
CONSUMER SURVEYS:
The differential between ‘jobs plentiful’ and ‘jobs hard to get’ within the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data rose to 35.4 from 27.6, auguring well for downside in the unemployment rate (analysts note the long-term correlations are decent). The metric was also encouraging since, in June, it declined from a cyclical high suggesting some cooling in labour market momentum. The CB also noted that consumers’ outlook for the labour market was more upbeat in the month, with the proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead rising from 17.5% to 20.5%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 13.9% to 11.5%. The CB also said that, in terms of short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement rose from 20.5% to 24.7%, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 7.5% to 6.3%. RBC cautions, however, that that potential job growth (proxied by the growth in the labor force) slowed in the last 12 months to just 71k, and accordingly, the bar to continue seeing lower rates of unemployment is low.
CHALLENGER:
The pace of announced job cuts eased in July; the headline was 38,845 versus the 41,977 in June, Challenger said, marking the second consecutive drop in monthly job cut announcements since May, and the lowest total since August 2018. “The US is enjoying the longest economic expansion in American history and the June jobs report documented a decidedly strong labor market,” Challenger wrote, “however, slowing GDP growth in the second quarter, cuts in business investment, and trade tensions led the Federal Reserve to cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point. This move signals trouble on the horizon for the current economic cycle.” It notes that employment tends to be a lagging indicator, as companies often keep hiring up to the edge of a recession, but right now, the labour market is strong. “Employees can continue to anticipate moderate wage growth and advantageous employment prospects for the time being.” Challenger noted that manufacturers were not faring particularly well, not only by shifting consumer behaviour and automation, but also by the imposed tariffs.
ARGUING FOR A STRONGER REPORT:
- Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims remained unchanged at very low levels during the four weeks between the payroll reference periods (at 219k on average). Continuing claims declined from survey week to survey week for the first time in three months (-17k to 1677k).
- Job availability. The Conference Board labor market differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—rebounded by 5.2pt to +33.4 in July, just below the cycle-high. Other job availability readings are somewhat backward-looking at this point, but were somewhat softer on a sequential basis: JOLTS job openings declined but remained high (-49k to 7,323k in May) and the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online index edged lower (-0.2pt to 102.4 in June).
- Census hiring. Temporary employment related to the 2020 Census has significantly lagged that of 1999 and 2009. However, address canvassing scheduled for August will require tens of thousands of temporary workers to be hired and trained. Given this and given that the 200+ regional Census offices were opened in late June, expect a visible boost from Census hiring in tomorrow’s report (Goldman assume 10-20k workers).
- Public Education. We believe some of the 20k decline in public education payrolls over the last two months will reverse in tomorrow’s report. Employment in this industry is highly mean-reverting at the end of the school year, and the May/June declines reflected seasonal adjustment issues as opposed to legitimate labor shedding at state colleges and universities.
ARGUING FOR A WEAKER REPORT:
- Hurricane Barry. While Hurricane Barry caused power outages for more than 120k households in Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast, the storm did not make landfall until Friday and Saturday of the payroll survey week. Workers are counted as employed in the establishment survey unless they miss work for the entire payroll reference period. And as shown in Exhibit 1—which plots electricity usage in the areas affected—disruptions during the workweek itself appear minimal. Accordingly, economists do not expect a meaningful impact of the storm in tomorrow’s report.
- Employer surveys. Business activity business surveys were sequentially firmer in July (with small net gains in the manufacturing sector and a moderate increase in the services sector), but the employment components of those surveys underperformed (-1.2pt to 52.3 for manufacturing, -0.9pt to 53.5 for services). As shown in Exhibit 2, however, the level of the labor-market components still suggests job growth running at a healthy pace (of around 175k per month). Service-sector job growth rose 154k in June and averaged 134k over the last six months, while manufacturing payroll employment rose 17k in June and has increased by 8k on average over the last six months.
NEUTRAL FACTORS:
ADP. The payroll-processing firm ADP reported a 156k increase in July private employment, slightly above consensus and a sizeable pickup from the 112k pace it reported in June. The ADP report was slightly firmer than our previous assumptions—and in our view suggests that the underlying pace of job growth remains solid.
Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas remained unchanged in July at 47k (SA by GS), but are still somewhat above their July 2018 level (+15k yoy). A retracing of announced layoffs in the automotive industry (-6k mom sa) roughly offset a rise in the transportation industry (+4k) and smaller increases in other industries.
WAGES:
Finally, the other critical data point that could have an outsized impact on risk assets is a hotter than expected wage print: Analysts at Bank of America see average wages growing +0.3% M/M, which is firmer than the consensus view; the bank says this will also push the annualised measure to 3.2% Y/Y. The bank sees average weekly hours worked to remain unchanged at 34.4hrs. Goldman estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month, with the
year-over-year rate a tad below that of BofA and in line with consensus, at 3.1%. The forecast reflects unfavorable calendar effects (survey week ended the 13th of the month) but a boost from a further rebound in supervisory earnings—which are underperforming the production worker subset by two tenths on a year-on-year basis (+3.14% vs. +3.35% in June). A monthly increase of 0.3% or 0.4% or an annual increase of 3.3% or more, and risk assets will find themselves in a world of pain. - Global Smartphone Shipments Plunge Again, Huawei Displaces Apple As No.2
The global smartphone bust is currently underway (has been for some time) – but there’s a new, surprising trend that could highlight one reason why the Trump administration has waged economic war against China.
First, let’s start with the global smartphone shipment data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
This new data details how worldwide smartphone shipments fell 2.3% in 2Q19 YoY. It also states that smartphone manufacturers shipped 333.2 million phones in 2Q19, which was up 6.5% QoQ.
An escalating trade war between the US and China contributed to sharp declines in shipments in both countries over the last year. However, the declines weren’t nearly as severe as expected in China over 1H19 versus 1H18, suggesting that three years of a smartphone bust in Asia could be nearing a recovery phase. Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) maintained solid momentum in 2Q YoY, with shipments up 3% in the quarter fueled by Southeast Asia markets.
The surprising trend IDC detected is that Huawei surpassed Apple in 2Q19, making it the first time in seven years that Samsung and Apple weren’t the top smartphones manufactures in the world.
Now it seems that a South Korea company [Samsung] and a Chinese company [Huawei] are the world leaders in smartphone shipments, something that has irritated the Trump administration.
Samsung ranked No.1 with 75.5 million shipments in 2Q19, a 5.5% YoY increase. Huawei was No.2 with 58.7 million shipments in 2Q19, a 8.3% YoY jump. Apple was No.3 with 33.8 million shipments in 2Q19, a -18.2% YoY plunge.
“Despite a lot of uncertainty surrounding Huawei the company managed to hold its position at number two in terms of market share,” said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
“When you look at the top of the market – Samsung, Huawei, and Apple – each vendor lost a bit of share from last quarter, and when you look down the list the next three – Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo – all gained. Part of this is related to the timing of product launches, but it is hard not to assume this trend could continue.”
IDC Smartphone Company Highlights:
Samsung
Samsung maintained the top position in the market for 2Q19 and returned to annual growth of 5.5% with a total of 75.5 million smartphones shipped. As noted in its recent earnings call, the company struggled to sell flagship devices as many consumers are holding onto devices longer than ever and opting for a less expensive replacement option. The pending announcement of the next Galaxy Note device likely held off some of those that are loyal to the brand. Meanwhile, Samsung’s A-series devices did well in the quarter, particularly the A50 and A70.
Huawei
Huawei saw its shipment volumes decline 0.6% when compared to 1Q19, which could be regarded as better than expected given U.S.-China trade tensions. Shipment volumes in China hit an all-time high and accounted for 62% of Huawei’s 2Q19 total with 36.4 million units. The China success during the quarter was in part due to actions taken following the US trade ban as Huawei relocated significant human resources back to China with a focus on distribution channel management in the Chinese lower-tier cities. The P30 and P30 Pro, which launched in mid-April, also had a relatively good reception as its predecessor, P20 series, had created a positive ripple effect.
Apple
Apple shipped 33.8 million new iPhones during 2Q19, which was down significantly from the same quarter a year ago. However, when factoring in the success of the iPhone upgrade program as well as Apple’s ability to sell more refurbished iPhones through its channels, the argument can easily be made that its position in the market is still dominant. Regardless of slightly lower market share and device selling prices, as pointed out in yesterday’s earnings call, the iPhone installed base continues to grow. So irrespective of the hardware – as a new iPhone, an older model, or a refurbished product – the expansion of iOS users is what appears to matter most going forward.
IDC provides a clear chart that shows from when the trade war started — Apple lost global market share while Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, and OPPO either gained or held their respected market share.
Apple being displaced as No.2 smartphone manufacturer in the world by a Chinese company suggests one reason why the Trump administration has waged economic on the Shenzhen-based smartphone manufacturer.
Trump is acting like he holds all the cards in the trade war, and as we explained earlier: “he doesn’t.” Apple will continue to hemorrhage global market share as Chinese and South Korean smartphones are dominating Asia and Europe. Apple is a dying fad, more importantly, the American global dominance is a dying empire.
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