Feb 02

Today’s News 2nd February 2018

  • Trump To Present Mideast Peace Plan "With Or Without The Palestinians"

    A ‘post hoc’ attempt to present the US as a sincere broker in the peace process? 

    Axios reports that amidst the current complete disconnect in relations between the White House and the Palestinian Authority there is serious consideration underway of moving forward with President Trump’s Middle East peace plan with or without the Palestinians at the negotiating table.

    A senior administration official told the diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Channel 10 news Barak Ravid that Trump may simply place his plan before the world “so the parties and international community can judge it at face value.” As quoted in Axios, the senior official elaborated on the plan as follows:

    “Since it’s not done, we haven’t decided yet how we are going to put it forward and what happens if one of the sides isn’t ready to come to the table. We are not there yet. But we are very optimistic that all relevant countries who want to support a peace agreement between the two sides are still waiting for our plan, want to work with us and realize we cannot be replaced. Despite all of the false reports about our plan, we are confident it will be beneficial to both sides and both peoples.”

    Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu with President Trump in Jerusalem during a May 2017 visit. Image source: AP via Politico 

    As recently as a week ago Trump repeated his threat of cutting US aid to the Palestinian territories, telling reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he could cut $700 million in annual U.S. aid “unless they sit down and negotiate peace.”

    Trump has frequently visited the subject following the fierce international reaction to the early December move which gave formal US recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, which includes plans to relocate the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem by the end of 2019. At Davos, just before a planned meeting held on the sidelines of the economic summit with Israel’s prime minister, Trump heightened his rhetoric, saying of the Palestinian side represented by Mahmoud Abbas, “They’re going to have to want to make peace, or we’re going to have nothing to do with them any longer.”

    Trump added further, “We give them tremendous amounts, hundreds of millions of dollars. That money is on the table, because why should we do that as a country if they’re doing nothing for us?” And concluded by saying he simply wants “peace” and “to save lives”: “And what we want to do is help them. We want to create peace and save lives. And we’ll see what happens. We’ll see what happens. But the money is on the table.”

    The December 6th announcement unleashed a wave of protest among Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem which resulted in multiple deaths during clashes with Israel security forces. Dozens of rockets were also launched out of Gaza, with Hamas leadership calling for a new ‘intifada’ – or mass uprising against Israeli occupation – soon after Trump’s announcement. In addition, Vice President Mike Pence was twice forced to push back plans to visit Jerusalem and the West Bank town of Bethlehem, the latter which was canceled altogether as Palestinian officials declared their intent to snub the vice president during this visit.

    Pence finally made the trip less than two weeks ago but failed to meet with Palestinian leadership, and gave a speech before Israel’s Knesset wherein he reaffirmed Trump’s commitment taking the next steps necessary to making the US recognition of Jerusalem a reality on the ground, saying “In the weeks ahead, our administration will advance its plan to open the United States Embassy in Jerusalem, and that United States Embassy will open before the end of next year [2019].” He further said, “Our president made his decision in the best interest of the United States,” and added, “The United States has chosen fact over fiction” while peppering his speech heavily with Old Testament references throughout while pledging to “stand with Israel because we believe in right over wrong, in good over evil, and in liberty over tyranny.”

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    Palestinian officials have claimed that the US under Trump has fully abandoned its role as an “honest broker” – however its unlikely that the Palestinians ever genuinely perceived the Americans in that role to begin with, as US aid to Israel – the bulk of it in the form of military support – has for years been in the billions per year. In 2016 the US signed off on a record $38 billion military aid package to Israel over the next decade. Abbas recently summarized the Palestinian Authority’s reaction to the Jerusalem move by slamming the decision as the “slap of the century” .

    And CNN reported the Palestinian Authority’s reaction to Trump’s Davos comments, as well as its view of the future prospect of a peace plan, as follows:

    “If Jerusalem is off the table, then America is off the table as well,” President Mahmoud Abbas’ official spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said in a phone call with CNN, reiterating that Palestinians no longer recognize the US as a mediator in any peace negotiations with Israel.

    There will be no negotiations, Abu Rudeineh said, until the current American administration abides by international law and agrees to work toward a two-state solution, which would see a state of Palestine created along 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital.

    Per the Axios report, should the White House move ahead to present a Trump peace plan before the international community it will likely be a mere post hoc attempt to present Trump as a sincere broker in the peace process. A December 21 United Nations vote to condemn the US Jerusalem recognition was dubbed a “stunning rebuke” of the US President’s decision after 128 countries voted against the US and Israel, and with 35 abstaining. 

    While Palestinian officials saw the move as a final nail in the coffin concerning the peace process, Trump ironically presented it as “the beginning of a new approach to conflict between Israel and Palestinians.”

    He said during the December 6 speech rolling out of the plan, “This is a long overdue step to advance the peace process and work towards a lasting agreement.” Trump generally framed the decision as a way to put his own stamp on one of history’s oldest conflicts. “The record is in: after more than two decades of waivers, we are no closer to a lasting peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians,” the president said at the time. “It would be folly to assume that repeating the exact same formula would now produce a different or better result.”

    According to Axios’ report today, “Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he will react to the Trump plan after he sees it but stressed he is ready to renew peace talks.” No doubt, the Israelis now see the US as firmly in their corner after the Jerusalem recognition, in line with the long-running Jewish claim on the contested capital. 

    * * *

     Meanwhile, Axios summarizes the latest developments as follows:

    • U.S. special envoy Jason Greenblatt held a series of meetings with Netanyahu, his advisers and several ministers over the last two weeks. Greenblatt also met with opposition leader Hertzog and briefed EU member states representatives in Tel-Aviv and East Jerusalem. He did not meet with any Palestinian officials but met with Palestinian students and private sector executives.

    • On Wednesday, Greenblatt participated in an emergency meeting of the donor countries to the Palestinian Authority. The meeting focused on the crisis in the peace process and on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah also participated in the meeting. It was the first time senior Palestinian and U.S. officials were around the same table since the Jerusalem announcement. Greenblatt and Hamdallah shook hands but didn’t hold a meeting.

    • In his speech during the plenary meeting, Greenblatt referred to Hamdallah and said he hopes that the fact he is participating shows the Palestinians are still committed to the efforts to renew the peace process. Greenblatt also said President Trump’s announcement was just a recognition of reality and the connection of Israel and the Jewish people to Jerusalem. Greenblatt also said in his speech: “Did the President’s decision prejudge any final status issues? No. We have not taken a position on borders”.

    • Greenblatt stressed that the Trump administration continues drafting its peace plan and called on the Palestinians to return to the peace talks: “Peace will not be achieved by walking away from negotiations. It is easy to walk away from the table. But that helps no one, and it reduces or perhaps eliminates the chances of achieving a comprehensive peace agreement. And that would be terrible for the Palestinian people”.

  • Meet The Corrupt Billionaire Who Has Brought About A New Cold War

    Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    One has to ask why there is a crisis in US-Russia relations since Washington and Moscow have much more in common than not, to include confronting international terrorism, stabilizing Syria and other parts of the world that are in turmoil, and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. In spite of all that, the US and Russia are currently locked in a tit-for-tat unfriendly relationship somewhat reminiscent of the Cold War.

    Apart from search for a scapegoat to explain the Hillary Clinton defeat, how did it happen?

     

    Israel Shamir, a keen observer of the American-Russian relationship, and celebrated American journalist Robert Parry both think that one man deserves much of the credit for the new Cold War and that man is William Browder, a hedge fund operator who made his fortune in the corrupt 1990s world of Russian commodities trading.

    Browder is also symptomatic of why the United States government is so poorly informed about international developments as he is the source of much of the Congressional “expert testimony” contributing to the current impasse. He has somehow emerged as a trusted source in spite of the fact that he has self-interest in cultivating a certain outcome. Also ignored is his renunciation of American citizenship in 1998, reportedly to avoid taxes. He is now a British citizen.

    Browder is notoriously the man behind the 2012 Magnitsky Act, which exploited Congressional willingness to demonize Russia and has done so much to poison relations between Washington and Moscow. The Act sanctioned individual Russian officials, which Moscow has rightly seen as unwarranted interference in the operation of its judicial system.

    Browder, a media favorite who self-promotes as “Putin’s enemy #1,” portrays himself as a selfless human rights advocate, but is he? He has used his fortune to threaten lawsuits for anyone who challenges his version of events, effectively silencing many critics. He claims that his accountant Sergei Magnitsky was a crusading “lawyer” who discovered a $230 million tax-fraud scheme that involved the Browder business interest Hermitage Capital but was, in fact, engineered by corrupt Russian police officers who arrested Magnitsky and enabled his death in a Russian jail.

    Many have been skeptical of the Browder narrative, suspecting that the fraud was in fact concocted by Browder and his accountant Magnitsky. A Russian court recently supported that alternative narrative, ruling in late December that Browder had deliberately bankrupted his company and engaged in tax evasion. He was sentenced to nine years prison in absentia.

    William Browder is again in the news recently in connection with testimony related to Russiagate. On December 16th Senator Diane Feinstein of the Senate Judiciary Committee released the transcript of the testimony provided by Glenn Simpson, founder of Fusion GPS. According to James Carden, Browder was mentioned 50 times, but the repeated citations apparently did not merit inclusion in media coverage of the story by the New York Times, Washington Post and Politico.

    Fusion GPS, which was involved in the research producing the Steele Dossier used to discredit Donald Trump, was also retained to provide investigative services relating to a lawsuit in New York City involving a Russian company called Prevezon. As information provided by Browder was the basis of the lawsuit, his company and business practices while in Russia became part of the investigation. Simmons maintained that Browder proved to be somewhat evasive and his accounts of his activities were inconsistent. He claimed never to visit the United States and not own property or do business there, all of which were untrue, to include his ownership through a shell company of a $10 million house in Aspen Colorado. He repeatedly ran away, literally, from attempts to subpoena him so he would have to testify under oath.

    Per Simmons, in Russia, Browder used shell companies locally and also worldwide to avoid taxes and conceal ownership, suggesting that he was likely one of many corrupt businessmen operating in what was a wild west business environment.

    My question is, “Why was such a man granted credibility and allowed a free run to poison the vitally important US-Russia relationship?” The answer might be follow the money. Israel Shamir reports that Browder was a major contributor to Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland, who was the major force behind the Magnitsky Act.

  • Newsweek Publisher Caught Defrauding Gov Agency In Ad Revenue Scheme

    A scheme by the publisher of Newsweek and the International Business Times to buy fraudulent traffic in order to help secure a major ad contract from a US government agency has come to light in a new report released by independent ad fraud researchers. 

    According to the report, IBTimes.com won a major video and display advertising contract from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) – a federal oversight agency created six years ago as the brainchild of Senator Elizabeth Warren. Social Puncher, a consulting firm that investigates online ad fraud, notes in its report that “ads purchased by the CFPB were displayed to an audience that includes a significant amount of “cheap junk traffic with a share of bots“ – effectively defrauding the agency. 

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    When it comes to IBT’s fraudulent traffic practices, Social Puncher’s findings align with reporting from BuzzFeed News on IBT India, and with separate data gathered by Pixalate, an ad fraud detection company, and DoubleVerify, a digital media measurement company. (Social Puncher and BuzzFeed News previously collaborated on ad fraud investigations, but worked separately in this case.)

    Based on what it described as a detailed investigation, DoubleVerify this week classified IBT’s US, UK, India, and Singapore sites as “as having fraud or sophisticated invalid traffic,” according COO Matt McLaughlin. DoubleVerify is now blocking all ad impressions on these sites on behalf of customers.

    In response to questions from BuzzFeed News, Newsweek Media Group, the parent company of IBT, acknowledged it purchases audiences from ad networks that sell pop-up and pop-under traffic. It said this traffic represents a “small percentage of traffic on our sites” and denied any fraudulent activity. –Buzzfeed

    “We use third-party platforms to verify and filter this traffic to ensure it is of the highest quality. This verification process prevents poor-quality traffic being redirected to our sites and we consistently score highly on various third-party ad verification platforms,” the company said. It declined to name the third-party verification partners it works with.

    The CFPB, now headed by Trump appointee Mick Mulvaney, told BuzzFeed News that the bureau is looking into the allegations. 

    “We take allegations of fraud very seriously. Acting Director Mulvaney is actively looking into the work done by GMMB, and these allegations [of ad fraud by IBTimes.com] will be investigated as part of that process,” the spokesperson said.

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    The CFPB has come under fire in recent months after it was discovered that the agency established a “secret slush fund” to funnel penalties collected from defendants to Democrat causes. 

    A consultant who worked with the highly politicized Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) claims the organization funneled a large portion of over $5 billion in collected penalties to “community organizers aligned with Democrats” as part of a giant slush fund, the Post reported in early December. 

    [The CFPB] Funneled a large portion of the more than $5 billion in penalties collected from defendants to community organizers aligned with Democrats — “a slush fund by another name,” said a consultant who worked with CFPB on its Civil Penalty Fund and requested anonymity.

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    Created six years ago as the brainchild of Senator Elizabeth Warren and slipped into the Dodd Frank bill before it was passed by Congressional Democrats, the CFPB became one of the most powerful agencies in D.C., with the ability to exercise enormous power over the U.S. economy while its budget remained unencumbered by congressional oversight. As one Hill writer put it:

    The problem is that this agency and its director were set up to be free from the control of the Congress. Congress’s fundamental obligation to oversee and fund such bureaus or agencies is short-circuited when it comes to the CFPB. In structuring it in the manner written by now-Sen. Warren (D-Mass.), the law abrogated the idea of a government by the people, for the people and of the people.

    Instead, it established an autocratic and unaccountable power center for people of Warren’s ideological persuasion — those who view our market economy as an enemy that must be managed by a chosen few. The creation of the CFPB as a rogue agency with a dictatorial leader is one of the most significant acts of malfeasance perpetrated on the American constitutional system since the Sedition Acts of 1798. 

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    With the reins of the CPFB handed over to Mick Mulvaney in December following the resignation of Obama-era Director Richard Cordray, it appears that IBTimes.com’s government-funed gravy train has just been derailed. 

  • Walter Williams: "Immigration Lies And Hypocrisy"

    Authored by Walter Williams via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    President Donald Trump reportedly asked why the U.S. is “having all these people from shithole countries come here.” I think he could have used better language, but it’s a question that should be asked and answered.

     

    I have a few questions for my fellow Americans to consider.

    How many Norwegians have illegally entered our nation, committed crimes and burdened our prison and welfare systems? I might ask the same question about Finnish, Swedish, Welsh, Icelanders, Greenlanders and New Zealanders. The bulk of our immigration problem is with people who enter our country criminally from Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, Africa and the Middle East. It’s illegal immigrants from those countries who have committed crimes and burdened our criminal justice and welfare systems. A large number of immigrants who are here illegally — perhaps the majority are law-abiding in other respects — have fled oppressive, brutal and corrupt regimes to seek a better life in America.

    In the debate about illegal immigration, there are questions that are not explicitly asked but can be answered with a straight “yes” or “no”: Does everyone in the world have a right to live in the U.S.? Do Americans have a right to decide who and under what conditions a person may enter our country? Should we permit foreigners landing at our airports to ignore U.S. border control laws just as some ignore our laws at our southern border? The reason those questions are not asked is that one would be deemed an idiot for saying that everyone in the world has a right to live in our country, that Americans don’t have a right to decide who lives in our country and that foreigners landing at our airports have a right to just ignore U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents.

    Immigration today, even when legal, is different from the immigration of yesteryear. People who came here in the 19th century and most of the 20th century came here to learn our language, learn our customs and become Americans. Years ago, there was a guarantee that immigrants came here to work, because there was no welfare system; they worked, begged or starved. Today, there is no such assurance. Because of our welfare state, immigrants can come here and live off taxpaying Americans.

    There is another difference between today and yesteryear. Today, Americans are taught multiculturalism throughout their primary, secondary and college education. They are taught that one culture is no better or worse than another. To believe otherwise is criticized at best as Eurocentrism and at worst as racism. As a result, some immigrant groups seek to bring to our country the cultural values whose failures have led to the poverty, corruption and human rights violations in their home countries that caused them to flee. As the fallout from President Trump’s indelicate remarks demonstrates, too many Americans are afraid and unwilling to ask which immigrant groups have become a burden to our nation and which have made a contribution to the greatness of America.

    Very unfortunate for our nation is that we have political groups that seek to use illegal immigration for their own benefit. They’ve created sanctuary cities and states that openly harbor criminals — people who have broken our laws. The whole concept of sanctuary cities is to give aid, comfort and sympathy to people who have broken our laws. Supporters want to prevent them from having to hide and live in fear of discovery. I’d ask whether, for the sake of equality before the law, we should apply the sanctuary concept to Americans who have broken other laws, such as robbers and tax evaders.

    We should not fall prey to people who criticize our efforts to combat illegal immigration and who pompously say, “We’re a nation of immigrants!” The debate is not over immigration. The debate is over illegal immigration.

    My sentiments on immigrants who are here legally and who want to become Americans are expressed by the sentiments in Emma Lazarus’ poem “The New Colossus,” which is on a plaque inside the Statue of Liberty and in part says, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”

  • "One Typhoon Away From Full Breach" – US Nuke-Test Dome Leaking Fatal Radiation Into Pacific Ocean

    Before the 1970s, the United States and other nuclear-armed countries conducted more than 500 atomic weapons tests in the atmosphere.

    During these tests, radioactive debris and gases were flung up into the atmosphere and traveled around the world.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has stated that people around the world have had exposure to radioactive fallout from these nuclear tests. Even today, radioactive fallout is present in many parts of the world, but in small amounts.

    In the early 2000s, the CDC released a global radioactive fallout report and found that any person living in the US since 1951 has been “exposed to some radioactive fallout, and all of a person’s organs and tissues have received some exposure.”

    The costs associated with nuclear tests for any country have been quite devastating for surrounding communities. Take, for instance, the Enewetak Atoll, a large coral atoll of 40 islands in the Pacific Ocean, where the U.S. government detonated 30 megatons of weapons – equivalent to 2,000 Hiroshima blasts – between 1948 and 1958.

    In total, sixty-seven nuclear bombs detonated on Enewetak Atoll and Bikini Atoll of the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean.

    Beginning in 1977, more than 8,000 people worked to clean up the Marshall Islands, shifting 110,000 cubic yards of contaminated soil and debris into a blast crater.

    This thirty-foot-deep crater is called the Runit Dome, on Enewetak Atoll, also called “Cactus Dome” or locally “The Tomb.”

    The dome of death spans 350-feet across with an 18-inch concrete cap covering radioactive debris from 12-years of U.S. government nuclear tests.

    Despite the U.S. government’s resettlement efforts of radioactive debris in the 1970s, some parts of the Marshall Islands today, have elevated radiation levels deemed dangerous for human life.

    The Daily Star reports that the death dome’s concrete structure is rapidly deteriorating. This is allowing the tides of the ocean to pump water into the dome and then pump radioactive water out.

    Paul Griego, who was a specialist at the dome site blames the radiation for his health problems today.

    “When I first arrived, the dome’s blast crater was open to the ocean – it continued to be full of sea water even after it was sealed off from the ocean.”

    “During my 10-hour work day I witnessed the water level in the crater rise and lower as the tide came in and out.”

    He continued:

    “No attempt was made to drain the crater or line it before the radioactive waste was dumped into it.”

    “The coral that created the island is porous and the shock from numerous nuclear weapon tests had also fractured the coral.”

    “From the first day forward, the water has flowed out of the lagoon with the tide, creating a gigantic radioactive toilet that is flushed about twice each day into the Pacific Ocean.”

    Griego then warned,

    “The dome could be just one typhoon away from a breach.”

    Rama Schneider, who transported radioactive waste from various islands in amphibious vehicles during the cleanup, said it is no surprise that the dome is failing.

    “Standing on any island at that atoll is akin to standing inches above sea level – and that was in 1979,” he added.

    “The sea level and ground level are becoming more and more to be the same, and it doesn’t matter if we’re talking sea level rise, land subsidence or both,” he said.

    Girard Frank Bolton III, who worked as a draughtsman on the dome for 14 months, insisted the damage to the dome is minimal. He stated the dome was designed to slow the migration of radiation not to completely stop it.

    And lastly, he warned, “Also, since concrete is porous, the wave action and tides are continuously pumping radioactive water in and out of the structure.”

    The toxic legacy of the U.S. military-industrial complex has a radioactive secret in the Pacific paradise of Enewtak Atoll that you are not allowed to know about.

    To keep America safe, the U.S. government has poisoned an entire region of the Pacific Ocean with nuclear weapons tests. In an attempt to cover their tracks, a massive crater was dug to dispose of the radioactive material, but decades later, a breach has been found poisoning the Pacific once more. At what point do Americans say “no more” to the military-industrial complex who runs around the world blowing things up in the name of keeping America safe, and at the same time poisoning planet earth.

  • Fidel Castro's Son Commits Suicide

    The 68-year-old son of late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, Fidel Angel Castro Dmaz-Balart,  committed suicide on Thursday after suffering from depression, reports Cuban state-run media. 

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    Diaz-Balart, who had been attended by a group of doctors for several months due to a state of profound depression, committed suicide this morning, reported Cubadebate.cu.

    Known as “Fidelito” due to his resemblance to his father, Castro Jr. had been hospitalized for depression after which he received outpatint follow-up treatment outside of the hospital. 

    Castro, who held a Doctorate in Sciences, served as Scientific advisor to the Council of State, as well as the Vice President of the Academy of Sciences of Cuba. 

    Castro Dmaz – Balart’s bio at the Academy of Sciences reads: 

    Scientific Advisor of the State Council of the Republic of Cuba. Degree in Physics, Master of Science in Physics, and Ph.D. in Physical- Mathematics Sciences. Expert in Nuclear Physics, formed in the Kurchatov Institute in the former Soviet Union. Principal leader and organizer in the creation and strengthening of capacities in nuclear science and technology, presiding over several years the Secretary for Nuclear Affairs in Cuba. Second-level PhD. Senior researcher. Member of the Cuban Physical Society. Member of the Scientific Council of the Iberian – Latin American Association on Technology Management (ALTEC). Author and editor of several books of great strategic importance in matters of progress and trends of contemporary science. He has taught many presentations, lectures and has represented Cuba in events, scientific and high level authorities meetings for Science and Technology in several countries, UNESCO, TWAS. Nanoscience promoter and manager/founder of a project for its promotion and development in Cuba, which is coming true.

    Castro Jr. appears to have been well liked based on the comments section of  Cubadebate.cu:

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    Funeral arrangements have yet to be made. 

  • January Payrolls Preview: The "Bomb Cyclone" Rebound

    With the January jobs report due at 830am ET on Friday morning, here is a quick recap of Wall Street expectations, via RanSquawk and Goldman:

    PREVIEW: January Jobs Report

    • Non-farm Payrolls: Est. 180k (98k to 230k), Prev. 148k
    • Unemployment Rate: Est. 4.1% (4.1% to 4.2%), Prev. 4.1%
    • Average Earnings Y/Y: Est. 2.6% (2.4% to 2.7%), Prev. 2.5%
    • Average Earnings M/M: Est. 0.3% (0.1% to 0.4%), Prev. 0.3% • Average Work Week Hours: Est. 34.5hrs (34.4hrs to 34.5hrs), Prev. 34.5hrs

    The US is expected to have created 180K job in December (range 98K-230K), a rebound from last month’s disappointing 148K and just higher than last year’s average of 171K (down from 186K in 2016). With labor market fundamentals seemingly solid, some banks such as Goldman believe January jobs will benefit from weather in the survey week which improved sequentially from that of December, despite the “bomb cyclone” in the first week of the month.

    “Employment growth disappointed at the end of last year, but the 148k gain in nonfarm payrolls in December wasn’t far below the gradual downward trend over the last three years,” Capital Economics says. “That trend will probably continue in 2018, but with the labour force rising by only 70k per month on average over the last 12 months, it won’t prevent the unemployment rate from falling further.”

    The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, the lowest level since February 2001.

    But nothing will get as much attention as the average hourly earnings print for renewed signs of wage inflation: it is expected to increase 0.3% (unch) month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year (up from 2.5% in Dec.), as unfavorable calendar effects are partially offset by a modest expected boost from minimum wage hikes.

    For now, an allegedly tightening labour market hasn’t put any significant upward pressure on average hourly earnings, and analysts at HSBC are expecting a softer showing in January on the back of pay period calendar quirks. However, core inflation has begun to tick up, and analysts are confident that wages will soon follow. In its latest statement (31/Jan), the FOMC noted that “market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.”

    The latest US CB Consumer Confidence data suggests that US consumers are ambivalent with regards to income prospects over the coming months, perhaps due to uncertainty around the impact of the US tax plan, the CB said. Though it did note that consumer’s short-term view of income prospects over the coming had eased slightly, with the percentage of consumers now expecting an improvement falling by 2.3ppts to 20.4% (despite the proportion expecting a decrease also declining to 7.7% from 9%).

    * * *

    Arguing for a stronger report:

    Weather. Despite the first week of the month’s East Coast blizzards – aka “bomb cyclone” – NOAA weather-station data suggest that nationwide snowfall in January was only slightly above seasonal norms. More importantly, snowfall was elevated during the December payroll survey week and likely weighed on job growth in several states, including New York (-1k, mom sa), Texas (flat), and Maryland (-20k). As shown in Exhibit 1, our measure of population-weighted snowfall during the survey week actually declined in January (the right axis is inverted) and would suggest a boost to job growth relative to trend of around 15-30k. While the lingering effects of the bomb cyclone suggest potential downside risk to this estimate, outside of the Northeast, most of the associated snow accumulation in major population centers had melted away by Monday of the survey week.

    Exhibit 1: Nationwide Snowfall Declined from Survey Week to Survey Week,
    Despite “Bomb Cyclone” In Previous Week

    ADP. The payroll processing firm ADP reported a 234k increase in January private payroll employment, 49k above consensus expectations of +185k. While the report likely received a boost from the financial and economic indicators used in the ADP model, the report nonetheless suggests that the underlying pace of job growth remains firm.

    Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims rebounded from a cycle low during the four weeks between the payroll reference periods (244k vs. 236k for December), but the absolute level suggests a very low pace of layoffs. Additionally, continuing claims began to decline again in mid-December, and they declined by 8k from survey week to survey week.

    Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas pulled back 3k to 35k, its second consecutive decline. On a year-over-year basis, announced job cuts declined by 1k.

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    Business Surveys

    The January ISM manufacturing survey recorded the rate of employment growth easing (54.2 vs 58.1 previous), though has remained in expansion for the sixteenth consecutive month. ISM said “employment expansion remains strong, but difficulties across the supply chain continue to constrain production output.” The non-manufacturing ISM is to be released after the publication of the January Employment Situation Report.

    IHS Markit’s purchasing manager surveys didn’t specify the exact level of the employment sub-index, though the data compiler noted that “favourable demand conditions encouraged another robust rise in the employment numbers, although the rate of job creation eased slightly from December’s 39-month peak.”

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    Arguing for a weaker report:

    Manufacturing-sector surveys. Manufacturing sector surveys generally declined in January, and the ISM measure employment component in particular fell 3.9 pts to 54.2. While these surveys continue to suggest a firm pace of job gains in this sector, the pace of growth may slow in Friday’s report. Manufacturing payroll employment rose 25k in December and has increased by 20k on average over the last six months.

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    Neutral factors:

    Service-sector surveys. While service-sector employment surveys declined on net in January – led by a drop in the Philly Fed and Dallas Fed measures – the non-manufacturing employment tracker (-0.7pt to 55.1) is only a point below its 3-year high. And encouragingly, the Conference Board labor market differential – the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get – rose to a new 16-year high (+0.9pt to +21.2). Service sector job growth slowed to +91k in December and has increased 123k on average over the last six months.

    Job availability. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report showed an unchanged level of online job postings (mom sa) following a 5.2% rebound in December. Analysts place limited weight on this indicator, in light of research by Fed economists that suggests the HWOL ad count has been depressed by higher prices for online job ads. The Conference Board is currently reviewing its methodology accordingly.

    Post-Holiday transportation layoffs. Transportation and warehousing payrolls have decelerated or declined outright in recent Januaries, reflecting payback from strong job gains ahead of the holidays. However, it appears that the BLS seasonal factors may have finally evolved to anticipate these trends (see Exhibit 3). Relatedly, the trend-like gains in transportation jobs in November and December 2017 (+11k and +2k respectively, compared to the full-year average of +6k), suggest minimal scope for payback in tomorrow’s report.

    Seasonal Factors Have Evolved to Anticipate Short-Term Holiday Employment in the Transportation Industry

    d

  • 'Leaker' Comey Blasts GOP "Weasels & Liars" In Confusing Tweet

    Not The Onion.

    Former FBI Director and admitted document-leaker James Comey took to Twitter this afternoon to apparently confuse and condemn those who dare to cross his or his old establishment buddies’ paths.

    In an apparent show of support for the current (and former) FBI leadership, who, among others, face alleged exposure from Nunes’ memo for their anti-Trump bias and abuse of FISA in surveiling Trump campaign officials, Comey tweeted the following ‘riddle’…

    “All should appreciate the FBI speaking up,” Comey said Thursday in a tweet. “But take heart: American history shows that, in the long run, weasels and liars never hold the field, so long as good people stand up. Not a lot of schools or streets named for Joe McCarthy.”

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    We have a few questions, thoughts on the matter.

    1) The FBI “speaking up”? Presumably refers to FBI Director Wray’s “grave concerns” about the memo’s contents (which would allegedly expose the secretive agency that he runs for possible corruption and bias). Where were the “speaking up” FBI when it came to Hillary’s emails? Did they “speak up” about high-ranking officials “insurance” policies against the democratically-elected President?

    2) “Weasels and liars never hold the field” – well to be frank Mr.Comey, Democrats and Republicans have ‘held their field’ in Washington for decades skimming from the rest of America… and one other thing… is it a “weasel”-like act to leak documents to the press?

    3) Referencing Joe McCarthy seems odd – is it not “all 17 intel agencies” and every Democrat that proclaims anyone not toeing the “Russians disrupted our Democracy” bullshit as a “puppet of putin” to be villified and ostricized and removed from social media and the internet as Russian co-conspirators or “useless idiots” in the biggest McCarthy-esque witch-hunt, blame-scaping ever?

    4) What no virtue-signaling, scripture quotes?

    We will just have to see what the memo says tomorrow, won’t we…?

  • Dems Caught Playing Candy Crush During State Of The Union

    Michigan Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-MI) was busted playing Candy Crush during Tuesday night’s State of the Union address while President Trump was talking about revamping America’s international trade by pushing for deals that are fair and reciprocal for Americans.

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    Lawrence was pictured next to two other members of the Congressional Black Caucus who were also playing with their phones during the speech – Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ) and Joyce Beatty (D-OH). 

    Watson was pictured checking a response to a tweet she made, while Beatty was inspecting a proposed press release reacting to President Trump’s speech.

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    Rep Bonnie Watson Coleman checks twitter
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    Tweet Rep. Watson Coleman was checking
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    Rep. Beatty previews Democrat response

    Beatty’s spokesman told DailyMail.com on Thursday that she had read the entire speech already, and wasn’t doing anything out of the ordinary. 

    ‘That State of the Union is put out an hour in advance so Democrats and Republicans can read along,’ the spokesman said.

    ‘And while the speech was going on, she was putting together a statement in response.’

    The other two congresswomen’s offices, however, didn’t offer any explanation. –Daily Mail

    David Martosko of the Daily Mail helpfully adds that “It’s unclear from the picture what level of Candy Crush she was on. Members of Congress are paid $174,000 per year.”

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    Black Caucus during SOTU
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    Reps. Brenda Lawrence, Joyce Betty and Bonny Watson Coleman pictured Tuesday night

    Aside from the three Democrat reps engaged with their phones, the Congressional Black Caucus declined to stand when Trump touted the lowest black unemployment rate ever recorded:

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