Today’s News 2nd July 2020

• France Suspends Role In NATO Naval Mission, Outraged Over "Turkish Aggression"
  France Suspends Role In NATO Naval Mission, Outraged Over “Turkish Aggression”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/02/2020 – 02:45

  France has notified NATO command that its military is suspending involvement in an ongoing Mediterranean operation called Sea Guardian in protest of a June 10 incident wherein Turkish warships off Libya’s coast “engaged” a French frigate via radar. This means the Turkish ship essentially had missile lock on the NATO allied ship.

  The AP detailed in the days after the hostile encounter between two NATO members that “the frigate Courbet was ‘lit up’ three times by Turkish naval targeting radar when it tried to approach a Turkish civilian ship suspected of involvement in arms trafficking.” The Turkish military ships were allegedly escorting the smaller civilian ship, suspected by the French of illegal gun-running.

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  The French vessel was then forced to back off as it tracked a civilian Turkish vessel suspected of smuggling arms into Tripoli amid a blanket UN arms embargo. The two sides have since blamed the other for the act of “aggression”.

  Paris had declared it a “hostile act” – something which Ankara has rejected. The French Foreign Ministry further accused the Turkish ships of “extremely aggressive” intervention against a NATO ally.

  Ironically, Operation Sea Guardian is meant to enforce the arms embargo on Libya — but Turkey allegedly intervened against the French ship to thwart inspecting and seizing weapons in transit. Needless to say the incident highlights severe cracks in the NATO alliance.

  The incident came also amid worsening relations between Turkey and France over Turkey’s increased “adventurism” of late in defending Tripoli against Haftar forces, which has involved drones, aircraft, and even sending Turkish national troops to the region along with mercenaries from Syria.

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  On Wednesday France reportedly sent a formal letter to NATO command in Brussels informing the alliance that it is effectively suspending support for the Mediterranean operation until necessary “clarifications” are made as a result on the NATO investigation into the incident. 

  Specifically, the letter addressed to NATO’s Secretary-General makes “four demands to clarify the role of the Sea Guardian operation, including its cooperation with an EU mission that is enforcing a UN arms embargo to Libya.”

  Though an arms embargo has been in effect on Libya since last year, the multiple players supporting opposing sides in the proxy war have essentially treated in as a joke. Since the UN declaration, more arms than ever have poured into the conflict, as well as mercenaries. 

  

• EU Ban On US Travelers Relies On Misleading COVID Data, Punishes Testing Gains
  EU Ban On US Travelers Relies On Misleading COVID Data, Punishes Testing Gains
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/02/2020 – 02:00

  Authored by Michael Fumento via JustTheNews.com,

  With the number of reported coronavirus infections rising in the U.S., the  European Union on Tuesday adopted recommendations extending travel restrictions that effectively ban non-essential American business and leisure travelers.

  The ban would remain in effect until the U.S. infection rate falls to a level comparable to or lower than the European rate and the number of new cases nationwide starts trending downward.  

  Although the guidance approved by the European Council is non-binding on EU member states, the economic repercussions of the action could be severe on both sides of the Atlantic. 

  Prior to the pandemic, Europe was earning fully 10% of its revenue from tourism, with much of that from the U.S. Further, a new IMF report concludes it’s the advanced nations of the world that will take the biggest hit from coronavirus fallout, so there are powerful economic incentives for the EU and the U.S. to mutually relax travel restrictions.

  While Europe’s ban on travel from countries with high infection rates appears sound on the surface, the data underlying its exclusion of U.S. travelers is misleading to the point of being false.

  At a glance, the rate of U.S. infections (or “cases,” whether or not infections result in COVID-19 symptoms) is vastly higher than that of any European country except tiny ones like the Vatican City and Andorra. And who wants visitors from a plague hotbed? 

  And yet, the U.S. infection “case rate” obscures something crucially important that is being missed — or ignored — by the media on both sides of the pond: Despite the high U.S. rate, six major European countries have a higher per-capita death rate than the U.S., and a couple of others are on about the same level. (Maybe U.S. healthcare for COVID-19 patients is better, but that much better?)  

  What really explains the higher U.S. infection is twofold.

  First, U.S. testing per capita has soared far above that of the major European countries. As with any other disease, whether infectious or not — heart disease, cancer, etc. — the more you test, the more you find. So, in banning travel from the U.S. while ignoring the causal link between increased testing and increased infections rates, the EU is in effect punishing the rapid expansion of testing in the U.S.

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  Second, as The Atlantic reported last month in article entitled “How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?” the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), under its controversial director Robert Redfield, is conflating antibody tests that indicate past infection with antigen (viral) tests showing current infection. That superficially scary U.S. infection rate thus includes antibody-positives, who actually make the most desirable foreign visitors because they won’t get sick on your soil and won’t be infecting your people. The commingling of the two kinds of tests, moreover, is made to order for double-counting, since a person who tests positive for the actual virus will later probably test positive for the antibody also. 

  So those articles you’ve been reading about U.S. case rates going back up (while deaths suspiciously stay flat  or decline)? The best explanation may not be the easing of lockdown restrictions, as has been implied by innumerable scare headlines in the media. It may instead be the U.S.  testing surge, plus case numbers misleadingly inflated by double-counting.

  “You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said to The Atlantic when told what the CDC was doing.

  “This is a mess,” he said.

  Whether it’s somehow a “mistake” as both he and article state is debatable, but either way, the U.S. government has effectively invited exaggerated COVID-19 numbers in multiple ways, including:

  • The CDC does not require COVID-19 positivity to declare a case as coronavirus

  • The CDC has conflated “death with” the virus and “death from” to the extent that the number of fatalities attributed to COVID-19 may be highly inflated.

  • The Medicare program that covers Americans over age 65 pays a 20% premium if a case is declared COVID-19, which creates a strong temptation for hospitals to overcount.

  If it’s hard to conceive why European governments would forfeit badly needed American tourist dollars simply because of surging U.S. testing combined with a counting methodology that overstates case numbers, perhaps it’s because the EU has an additional, unacknowledged motive beyond public health, namely retaliation: Remember, President Trump blocked travel to the U.S. from all 26 member nations of the European Schengen Area in mid-March, before Europe blocked the U.S. 

  The U.S. stands to take a big economic hit of its own by keeping its doors closed to Europeans. In March, Tourism Economics estimated the U.S. travel and tourism industry could lose at least $24 billion in foreign spending this year because of COVID-19 travel restrictions. 

  With summer travel season in full swing and the worst of the pandemic now behind both Europe and the U.S., time is running out for both sides to open their doors and start helping each other back to economic health.

  

• Why The US Empire Works So Hard To Control The International Narrative About Russia
  Why The US Empire Works So Hard To Control The International Narrative About Russia
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 23:45

  Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

  On a December 2010 episode of Fox News’ Freedom Watch, John Bolton and the show’s host Andrew Napolitano were debating about recent WikiLeaks publications, and naturally the subject of government secrecy came up.

  “Now I want to make the case for secrecy in government when it comes to the conduct of national security affairs, and possibly for deception where that’s appropriate,” Bolton said.

  “You know Winston Churchill said during World War Two that in wartime truth is so important it should be surrounded by a bodyguard of lies.”

  “Do you really believe that?” asked an incredulous Napolitano.

  “Absolutely,” Bolton replied.

  “You would lie in order to preserve the truth?” asked Napolitano.

  “If I had to say something I knew was false to protect American national security, I would do it,” Bolton answered.

  “Why do people in the government think that the laws of society or the rules don’t apply to them?” Napolitano asked.

  “Because they are not dealing in the civil society we live in under the Constitution,” Bolton replied. “They are dealing in the anarchic environment internationally where different rules apply.”

  “But you took an oath to uphold the Constitution, and the Constitution mandates certain openness and certain fairness,” Napolitano protested.

  “You’re willing to do away with that in order to attain a temporary military goal?”

  “I think as Justice Jackson said in a famous decision, the Constitution is not a suicide pact,” Bolton said.

  “And I think defending the United States from foreign threats does require actions that in a normal business environment in the United States we would find unprofessional. I don’t make any apology for it.”

  I am going to type a sequence of words that I have never typed before, and don’t expect to ever type again: John Bolton is right.

  Bolton is of course not right in his pathetic spin job on the use of lies to promote military agendas, which just looks like a feeble attempt to justify the psychopathic measures he himself took to deceive the world into consenting to the unforgivably evil invasion of Iraq. What he is right about is that conflicts between nations take place in an “anarchic environment internationally where different rules apply.”

  Individual nations have governments with laws that are enforced by those governments. Since we do not have a single unified government for our planet (at least not yet), the interactions between those governments is largely anarchic, and not in a good way.

  “International law”, in reality, only meaningfully exists to the extent that the international community is collectively willing to enforce it. In practice what this means is that only nations which have no influence over the dominant narratives in the international community are subject to “international law”.

  This is why you will see leaders in African nations sentenced to prison by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes, but the USA can get away with actually sanctioning ICC personnel if they so much as talk about investigating American war crimes and suffer no consequences for it whatsoever. It is also why Noam Chomsky famously said that if the Nuremberg laws had continued to be applied with fairness and consistency, then every post-war US president would have been hanged.

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  And this is also why so much effort gets poured into controlling the dominant international narrative about nations like Russia which have resisted being absorbed into the US power alliance. If you have the influence and leverage to control what narratives the international community accepts as true about the behavior of a given targeted nation, then you can do things like manufacture international collaboration with aggressive economic sanctions of the sort Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is currently calling for in response to the the completely unsubstantiated narrative that Russia paid Taliban fighters bounties to kill occupying forces in Afghanistan.

  Sen. Schumer: “We need in this coming defense bill… tough sanctions against Russia.” pic.twitter.com/L3M9hZg0Xm

  — The Hill (@thehill) June 28, 2020

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  In its ongoing slow-motion third world war against nations which refuse to be absorbed into the blob of the US power alliance, this tight empire-like cluster of allies stands everything to gain by doing whatever it takes to undermine and sabotage Russia in an attempt to shove it off the world stage and eliminate the role it plays in opposing that war. Advancing as many narratives as possible about Russia doing nefarious things on the world stage manufactures consent for international collaboration toward that end in the form of economic warfare, proxy conflicts, NATO expansionism and other measures, as well as facilitating a new arms race by killing the last of the US-Russia nuclear treaties and ensuring a continued imperial military presence in Afghanistan.

  We haven’t been shown any hard evidence for Russians paying bounties in Afghanistan, and we almost certainly never will be. This doesn’t matter as far as the imperial propagandists are concerned; they know they don’t need actual facts to get this story believed, they just need narrative control. All the propagandists need to do is say over and over again that Russia paid bounties to kill the troops in Afghanistan in an increasingly assertive and authoritative tone, and after awhile people will start assuming it’s true, just because the propagandists have been doing this.

  They’ll add new pieces of data to the narrative, none of which will constitute hard proof of their claims, but after enough “bombshell” stories reported in an assertive and ominous tone of voice, people will start assuming it’s a proven fact that Russia paid those bounties. Narrative managers will be able to simply wave their hands at a disparate, unverified cloud of information and proclaim that it is a mountain of evidence and that anyone doubting all this proof must be a kook. (This by the way is a textbook Gish gallop fallacy, where a bunch of individually weak arguments are presented to give the illusion of a single strong case.)

  This is all because “international law” only exists in practical terms to the extent that governments around the world agree to pretend it exists. As long as US-centralized empire is able to control the prevailing narrative about what Russia is doing, that empire will be able to continue to use the pretext of “international law” as a bludgeon against its enemies. That’s all we’re really seeing here.

  *  *  *

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• Israeli Leaders Say West Bank Annexation Must Wait Due To COVID-19
  Israeli Leaders Say West Bank Annexation Must Wait Due To COVID-19
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 23:25

  What was surely supposed be the most controversial and provocative move in all recent Israeli-Palestine conflict history was supposed to be initiated yesterday, July 1st, according to prior target date statements of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex up to one-third of West Bank territory, including the Jordan Valley.

  Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials claimed to have a ‘green light’ from the Trump administration, but at this point it’s anything but certain. “We are in discreet talks with US officials here,” Netanyahu told a Likud party meeting on Monday. “We are doing it discreetly. The matter is not up to Blue and White, they are not a factor either way,” he said in reference to the power sharing coalition with ‘Alternate Prime Minister’ and Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

  Gantz told his party at the start of this week that annexation “will have to wait” due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in the country.

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  “Anything unrelated to the battle against the coronavirus will wait,” Gantz said.

  This as the country’s health ministry is urging authorities to impose a second locking down of cities while cases soar again both inside Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

  In reality citing the coronavirus crisis also appears a well-timed excuse to temporarily delay a plan that will surely set the region on fire, given the unforeseen consequences for both Palestinians and Israel. Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have said such a move would be a declaration of war. Hamas has openly stated it will attack Israeli towns and settlements if Palestinian territory is seized. 

  Israel is looking to seize up to 30% of West Bank territory, bringing it under permanent Israeli control, as part of Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ Mideast peace plan. Theoretically according to the plan the remainder of the territory will be used to establish an autonomous Palestinian state. 

  Meanwhile The Jerusalem Post has confirmed that annexation will not happen this week, largely because Washington has not yet fully approved the plan.

  For now, Israeli politicians will blame coronavirus while still claiming a US green light, despite US and Israeli officials still in high level meetings to hash things out, and contingency plans for what could unleash a next Palestinian intifada. 

  

• Hundreds Of Former George W. Bush Staffers Launch Pro-Biden Super PAC
  Hundreds Of Former George W. Bush Staffers Launch Pro-Biden Super PAC
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 23:05

  Authored by Ben Wilson via SaraACarter.com,

  A new super PAC formed by hundreds of former campaign, administration, and political staffers from George W. Bush’s administration will work to get former Vice President Joe Biden elected, saying they are “dismayed and disappointed” by the Trump presidency.

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  The new group, 43 Alumni for Biden, announced their formation on Wednesday, saying their purpose is to “unite and mobilize a community of historically Republican voters who are dismayed and disappointed by the damage done to our nation.”

  “For four years, we have watched with grave concern as the party we loved has morphed into a cult of personality that little resembles the Party of Lincoln and Reagan,” said 43 Alumni for Biden PAC Director Karen Kirksey in a press release.

  “We endorse Joe Biden not necessarily in full support of his political agenda but rather in full agreement with the urgent need to restore the soul of this nation.”

  Exclusive: Hundreds of George W. Bush administration officials to back Biden, group says https://t.co/vdjM9ezXiA pic.twitter.com/YWu9iqECqT

  — Reuters (@Reuters) July 1, 2020

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  The group began outreach last month, according to The Hill. More prominent and high-profile Bush alums in the group are expected to be made public in the coming weeks.

  Committee member Jennifer Millikin told The Hill many in the group don’t agree with Biden’s policies but agree his temperament and demeanor are what they’re interested in.

  Millikin severed in the General Services Administration under Bush and the Small Business Administration in the Trump administration.

  “We as a group have policy differences with him. We’re just looking to have someone in the office who will stand up and act like a leader,” she said.

  “We can debate the differences in the way we think about policies, we can have a robust debate, that’s what America’s for. But that’s not happening now, and we feel it will definitely happen with Joe Biden in office.”

  43 Alumni for Joe Biden will focus on swing state voters and is planning to release testimonials of Republican officials supporting the former Vice President.

  

• Florida Sheriff To Deputize Gun Owners If Cops Can't Handle Protesters
  Florida Sheriff To Deputize Gun Owners If Cops Can’t Handle Protesters
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 22:45

  A Florida sheriff says he’ll deputize lawful gun owners in the event BLM protesters overwhelm local police forces, according to WTSP.

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  Clay County Sheriff Darryl Daniels announced in a Tuesday video that he will “make special deputies out of every lawful gun owner” in the county if he has to.

  In the three-minute video, the northwest Florida sheriff calls out “the mainstream media” and protesters as godless dissidents. He tells people to not “fall victim to this conversation that law enforcement is bad, that law enforcement is the enemy of the citizens that we’re sworn to protect and serve.”

  Daniels then talks about law enforcement taking an oath “to support, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States and the government…And we end that with, ‘So help me God.’“

  “But God is absent from the media’s message or Black Lives Matter or any other group that’s making themselves a spectacle disrupting what we know to be our quality of life in this country,” Daniels says. –WTS

  Daniels then warns protesters to stay out of Clay County.

  “If we can’t handle you, I’ll exercise the power and authority as the sheriff, and I’ll make special deputies of every lawful gun owner in this county and I’ll deputize them for this one purpose to stand in the gap between lawlessness and civility,” adding “You’ve been warned.”

  

• Truth Irrelevancy Project Update: "Don't Bother Analyzing Nonsense"
  Truth Irrelevancy Project Update: “Don’t Bother Analyzing Nonsense”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 22:25

  Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic,

  When traffickers in intellectual gobbledegook have free reign, the Truth Irrelevancy Project’s work is done.

  Truth is always the enemy of power. Exposure of power’s motivations, depredations, and corruption never serves power’s ends. Truth is often suppressed and those who disclose it persecuted. Any illegitimate government (currently, all of them) that fails to do so risks its own termination.

  What if, instead of suppressing the truth, a regime could render it irrelevant and not have to worry about it? That prospect is the Holy Grail for those who rule or seek to rule.

  Robert Gore, “Make the Truth Irrelevant,”  Straight Line Logic, October 16, 2019

  By now most people recognize war is being waged. “Make the Truth Irrelevant” was published before Covid-19 or the George Floyd protests and riots, but it offers the perspective necessary to understand who is waging war against whom, and what’s at stake.

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  Science is one way humanity searches for truth. The Covid-19 panic and response are a direct assault on what remains of science. All of the hysteria and the political reaction to it are driven by models and projections, which are nothing more than hypotheses.

  It is said that models are only as good as the underlying data and assumptions they incorporate, but that’s misleading. They may use the best available data and assumptions and still be wildly off the mark. For any model of a complex phenomenon—the weather, the climate, financial markets, or the progression of a disease—substitute “our best guess” for the word “model” and you have a better understanding of what the model actually is.

  “Our best guess” also depends on who’s doing the guessing. The Covid-19 models that have been accepted and heavily publicized are the ones with the most dire projections for cases and deaths. The projections have generated the fear and panic necessary to support unprecedented restrictions on freedom and individual rights—lockdowns, business closures, involuntary unemployment, social distancing, and face masks—and a concomitant expansion of governments’ power, essentially rule by decree.

  The truth and logic were made irrelevant in many ways. Any opposition to the substitution of “our best guess” for actual science was roundly denounced as anti-science! The effectiveness of the totalitarian measures had never been established and still has not. There are in fact ample indications that they have made the outbreak worse. The use of hydroxychloriquine with antibiotics and zinc compounds, and other alternatives, as a treatment for Covid-19, based on doctors and other researchers’ observations, hypotheses, and experimentation—the scientific method—that too was anti-scientific. When non-science (sounds a lot like nonsense, doesn’t it?) becomes science and real science is scorned and discarded, the Holy Grail is within grasp.

  Even after the models upon which the totalitarian measures were based proved dramatically wrong, questions and dissent were suppressed and the measures kept in place. Nobody was to question the motives or the political philosophies of the officially approved best-guessers or their sponsors, even after the best guesses were wildly errant. Nobody was to question the good faith of the government officials who imposed the totalitarian measures even as the dire consequences mounted. When the official story cannot be questioned and alternative stories are suppressed, what does it say about the official story?

  Social media companies openly proclaim their fealty to the party line and remove anyone who has the temerity to challenge it. After a slow start most of the alternative media has woken up. Only a remnant cling to the official narrative, hoping any new uptick in cases anywhere heralds the kind of pandemic they predicted but never came, or at least a second wave of the one that did. Disappointingly for them, death rates keep going down and increases in cases are mostly driven by the increases in testing the coronavirus commissars have mandated.

  Corrupting science is the penultimate step to making the truth irrelevant. The last step is obliterating thought. The chaos in the streets that erupted after George Floyd’s death is a flyspeck compared to the mental chaos it reflects, which finds the ostensibly opposing sides on the same side, waging full-on war against reason and logic. A small and lonely brigade does battle against huge armies marching under banners of intellectual gobbledegook.

  Violence or its threat precludes discussion, which means you don’t have to rhetorically disarm and win a debate with someone who’s pointing a gun at you before you physically disarm, injure, or kill him in self-defense. Anyone who inflicts violence on people or property must be confronted by law enforcement with whatever force is necessary to stop the violence and subdue the perpetrator. Peaceful, law abiding citizens have the right to call upon what is, in a rational society, their agent the government to do it’s duty and arrest, try, and, once the violent criminal is convicted, incarcerate, regardless of the criminal’s beliefs and purported justifications.

  George Floyd’s death raises a variety of disturbing questions and issues. The facts surrounding his death are not altogether clear, but will presumably be clearer after further investigation and the trials of the four police. Some have taken his death as an indictment of, among other things, police tactics, police in general, public laws, government, and the status of racial groups within the US. They have the right to peaceably protest. However, their questions, accusations, and condemnations, well-founded or not, afford no justification for violence and the destruction of property.

  A society in which violence is initiated against people and property and is excused in the name of a cause is a society well down the road to its own destruction. People’s safety and freedom cannot be subject to the random and arbitrary terrors of political and ideological zealotry. To claim otherwise is to excuse the inexcusable.

  The rioters are using the alleged murder of George Floyd and the alleged violation of his rights as a suspected criminal to justify the wholesale violation of rights of people who had nothing to do with the situation. You cannot protest a violation of yours or someone else’s rights while claiming the right to violate other people’s rights. It’s a double standard, which is the same thing as no standard – more gobbledegook.

  If a white person is racist by virtue of being born white, but those using that pejorative and rationale are not racist for doing so, the words racist and racism have lost all meaning. Definitions of those words contingent on who’s using them and to whom it’s being applied render them meaningless. The guilt and apologies from some whites for racism and acceptance of their accusers’ claim that it is congenital is akin to guilt and apologies for attributes they actually are born with—blue eyes, curly hair, etc. An accusation that has no meaning or force is an accusation that must be ignored.

  Similarly, “medical science” that warns of the dangers of anti-lockdown and Trump rallies but blesses George Floyd protests destroys the meaning of that term. A double standard is no standard and consideration of either the warning or the blessing is precluded by their self-contradictory idiocy. It is yet another indication of the corruption of medical science, already glaringly evident since the onset of the coronavirus outbreak.

  The premise essential to the argument against racism is that individuals as a matter of logic must be judged as individuals, on their individual merits and flaws, not on their race. The concepts of racial guilt and racial pride are equally fatuous, a cover for people who want to either artificially inflate or deflate their own or someone else’s worth based on the accomplishments or transgressions of people to which they have no connection other than race and who often lived before they were even born. While the motivations of such people vary, it’s a plausible speculation that they stem from feelings of personal inadequacy.

  Any racial generalization—commendatory, pejorative, or benign—is disproven by at least one individual member of the race who does not conform to it. Other than the characteristics which define a race, it is virtually impossible to make any true and universal generalizations (including generalizations about privilege or its lack) about any particular race. That’s on the questionable assumption that race can be even a definable concept in societies where races intermarry. What race is a child with a white and black parent? What is the race of the grandchildren if that child procreates with an Asian or Hispanic?

  To paraphrase Ayn Rand, don’t bother analyzing nonsense, instead ask what it accomplishes. The premise of individuality and the impossibility of generalization cannot be acknowledged because this “war” is actually just another skirmish in the endless battle between the individual and collectivism, which at root is violence against the mind.

  The rioters, looters, and vandals, and their political and rhetorical enablers have been forthright about their desire to destroy, stop, or cancel any form of individual expression that does not conform to their ever-shifting whims and dictates. They are more honest than the Covid-19 totalitarians, who want the same things but are hiding behind the spurious rationale of protecting public health. Both groups claim the collective good as they define it transcends individual rights, meaning it transcends the individual mind.

  Undoubtedly there are people behind the scenes who are pulling the strings of the coronavirus commissars, peaceful protestors, and rioters. Many believe the string-pullers’ long-term goal is to install their version of order from the chaos they are fomenting. However, order out of chaos is a historical and intellectual canard, still more gobbledegook.

  What will come out of chaos is what has always come when that crowd gains control: suppression, submission, stagnation, decay, tyranny, totalitarianism, and mass murder. Coronavirus totalitarianism and the open embrace of Marxism by many of the rioters tell you all need to know. One question undercuts Marxism: why will the people of ability continue to produce for the people of need? It’s a question whose only correct answer is that they won’t, not for long, and it should have relegated Marxism and its collectivist fellow travelers to intellectual dustbins from the moment they were promulgated. Instead, those ideologies drove the murder of at least 100 million people in the twentieth century.

  Misery and death will always be Marxism and its collectivist way stations’ end product. Collectivism, whether the product of an uprising from below or some grand plan from above, inevitably degenerates to the “order” of the prison, the concentration camp, the Antebellum plantation, the gas chamber, or the graveyard. It’s also the order of the pressure cooker, as such measures always generate intense counter-pressure from the irrepressible human mind and spirit.

  “Order” imposed and enforced by arbitrary violence is not order, it’s violence, destruction and death, a different and often more pernicious version of the same chaos it ostensibly replaces. To say that the communists replaced the chaos of Tsar Nicholas II’s regime with order is to equate the infliction of incalculable misery and despair and the death of tens of millions at the hands of their violent dictatorship with a scientific laboratory, a factory, a library, or any other endeavor dedicated to the peaceful pursuit of knowledge, production, and human advancement. That equalization stretches the definition of “order” beyond the breaking point.

  Order is a human value, produced by rational human minds, not intellectual gobbledegook and chaotic violence. Order is a consequence of freedom and the protection of individual rights. There is nothing spontaneous about such order, it doesn’t happen by chance. It happens because people have discovered its necessary conditions and requirements, instituted corresponding social, political, legal, and economic arrangements, and find it in their self-interest to support and defend such arrangements (it’s not easy). The order that emerges results from voluntary choices, not violent control, which ultimately leads to chaos.

  Sense and nonsense cannot peacefully coexist, either intellectually or in real life. Sense will be the first to realize that. Nonsense cannot recognize it—sense provides its sustenance. The desirability of separation is seeping into the alternative media. Terms like “secession” and “divorce” are used more frequently, especially among people who espouse freedom and liberty as their ultimate goal. They understand the totalitarian designs of the globalists, coronavirus commissars, Black Lives Matter, Antifa, and the politicians, celebrities, and businesspeople kowtowing to them, and know full well who has the ability and who has the need.

  The first requirement of collectivism is victims. Its proponents can’t let their victims (sustenance) walk away, so there won’t be an amicable divorce. It will come down to history’s perpetual victims—the capable, competent, and honorable who ask of government only that it protect their rights—confidently asserting their own value, refusing to be victims, establishing one or more enclaves, defending their right to their own lives and free and peaceful order, and ignoring the collectivists’ screams as they consume themselves.

  

• June Payrolls Preview: It Could Go Either Way
  June Payrolls Preview: It Could Go Either Way
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 22:04

  Ahead of tomorrow’s June non-farm payrolls, consensus expects an increase of 3.1 million jobs, however with great uncertainty across estimates. Here is the rest of consensus expectations from tomorrow’s report:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls exp. 3mln (range 405k to +9mln, prev. +2.51mln);
  • Unemployment rate exp. 12.3% (range: 10.1- 15.5%%), prev. 13.3%;
  • U6 unemployment prev. 21.2%; Participation prev. 60.8%;
  • Private payrolls exp. +2.9mln, prev. +3.01mln;
  • Manufacturing payrolls exp. 311k, prev. 225kmln;
  • Government payrolls prev. -585k;
  • Average earnings M/M exp. -0.7%, prev. -1.0%;
  • Average earnings Y/Y exp. +5.3%, prev. +6.7%;
  • Average workweek hours exp. 34.5hrs, prev. 34.7hrs.

  According to Standard Chartered’s Steven Englander, dropping the top and bottom 10% of payrolls forecasts still leaves a central range of 1.65-5.00mn jobs, an extremely wide band that reflects the multiplicity of shocks hitting US labor markets.

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  According to NewsSquawk, the March and April jobs reports saw a cumulative 22.1 million jobs shed from the US economy, and as such, analysts will be looking at the cumulative pace of recovery too; if the June consensus is realized, we will have seen around 5.5 million of those jobs return highlighting the uphill task the economy faces in ‘normalizing’.

  Meanwhile, the jobless rate is seen falling to 12.3%; the Fed has projected that rate would fall to 9.3% by the end of this year, and fall further to 6.5% at the end of 2021. Analysts will pay particular attention to the participation rate, given the long-term impact participation can have on employment and wage growth levels. Heading into the data, we are deprived of some of the usual proxies we monitor to gauge the US labor market conditions; benchmark revisions diminishes the usefulness of the ADP survey, while we do not have a complete set of business surveys (notably, the services ISM will be released after the jobs report), leaving a degree of uncertainty around projections.

  As Englander adds, the consensus for job gains reflects a drop in weekly initial unemployment claims and a clear but more modest drop in continuing unemployment claims, as well as less established mobility and restaurant reservation data. Even with COVID-19 resurgence fears, activity indicators were much higher in the June survey week than in May.

  According to the strategist, given the multitude of stimulus programs in place, a weak number is unambiguously weak. The ambiguity lies in how much the job maintenance requirements of some programs induce temporary hiring. A strong number could reflect economic improvement or fiscal incentives to hire. Job losses have taken employment back to 2011 levels. The Fed worries that workers will be laid off if programs are scaled back, so it will likely maintain an aggressively stimulatory policy stance.  That said, once benefits start tapering out after the month of July, a second wave of mass layoffs is widely expected unless the imminent fiscal cliff is not refreshed with trillions in new stimulus.

  In its preview of the payrolls, report, Goldman writes that the bank will again pay special attention to the number and share of workers on temporary layoff, which spiked to a record high 18.1mn in April and remained elevated at 15.3mn in May. Over the last 50 years, the three recessions with the highest share of temporary layoffs were followed by the fastest labor market recoveries (both absolutely and relative to consensus forecasts at the time). If year-to-date job losses remain concentrated in this segment, it would increase the scope for continued rapid payroll gains this summer.

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  On the other hand, if the BLS fixes the “survey error” its admitted to have made in previous months which reduced the unemployment rate by up to 3%, it is possible that a far worse number could be reported tomorrow.

  To this effect, Goldman also expects that about half of the 4.9mn excess workers that were employed but not at work for “other reasons” in May will be reclassified as unemployed in the June household survey, applying upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Additionally, Goldman expects the labor force participation rate increased as business reopenings encouraged job searches. Correcting for misclassification of unemployed workers, the bank estimates the “true” unemployment rate declined more significantly, but to an even higher level (-2.4% to 14.0% in June from 16.4% in May).

  Below are some other considerations heading into tomorrow’s jobs report:

  PARTICIPATION:

  Analysts have suggested that in the current environment, the participation rate may hold more informational value than usual. That rate has declined sharply, and since March, there has been a surge in the number of people out of work but ‘not in the labor force’ (so are not looking for a job); UBS argues that they may not have looked because they believed they would be rehired; or they may not have looked because of mobility restrictions; their detachment from the labor force may prove to be temporary. “However, sustained lower-levels of labor force participation have long-running effects on employment probabilities and wages,” the bank writes, “the slow recovery in employment after the last recession was an example, and the path of labor force participation will be key to this recovery.”

  INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: In the week which corresponds with the BLS jobs report data, initial jobless claims again disappointed expectations. “It’s not clear why claims are still so high; is it the initial shock still working its way up through businesses away from the consumer-facing jobs lost in the first wave, or is it businesses which thought they could survive now throwing in the towel, or both?” Pantheon Macroeconomics says; either way, it argues that the numbers were disappointing, and serve to emphasize that a full recovery is going to take a long time. It is also worth noting that after the May jobs report confounded expectations, and some reason that the analyst community may have been wrong-footed by putting too much weight onto the weekly claims data, which have recently pointed at only limited improvement in labour market conditions.

  ADP: The ADP’s gauge of payroll growth in June disappointed expectations, seeing 2.37mln jobs added versus the 3mln expected; the prior, however, was significantly revised up from -2.76mln to +3.07mln; Moody’s economists said that there is no information in the revisions, which was more a reflection of the benchmarking of ADP data to the official BLS data, adding that the May payrolls were significantly overstated. Indeed, other analysts explain that the ADP data is based on a model which includes lagged official BLS data, which diminishes the usefulness of the ADP data. However, there were some interesting details in the release: leisure and hospitality sectors added 961k jobs as restaurants reopened; health care added 246k jobs, and the housing sector added 394k jobs as demand firms within the market; meanwhile, manufacturing employment was subdued, adding 88k jobs, which might indicate factories are not opening up as quickly as had been hoped. Capital Economics said the data suggests some downside risk to its above-consensus forecast for a 5mln increase in nonfarm payrolls, but notes that a research paper from the Brookings Institute last week argued that the raw ADP microdata, rather than the model-based estimates the ADP publicly release, was consistent with the stronger 5mln rise.

  BUSINESS SURVEYS: The ISM manufacturing report saw the employment sub-index jump 10 points to 42.1, the largest M/M increase since April 1961; it was however the eleventh straight month of employment contraction. Nevertheless, three of the six big industry sectors saw expansion as stay-athome orders were lifted, but long-term labor market growth remains uncertain, the report stated, though signs were positive given the moderately strong new order levels and a softening of backlog contraction were encouraging signs. The ISM non-manufacturing data has not been released yet (will be published on Monday), depriving us of glimpse at employment conditions in the non-manufacturing sectors of the US.

  CHALLENGER JOB CUTS: Layoffs came in at 170k in June vs the prior 397k. Challenger noted the “job cuts are trending down, as expected, as businesses begin the difficult task of reopening. However, with a resurgence in cases, millions of Americans out of work, and enhanced unemployment benefits coming to an end soon, we may expect more companies to make cuts as consumer and business spending slows.” Of the job cuts this year, COVID has been the main cause, while market conditions and demand downturn have also been cited; both knock-on effects of COVID. The fall in oil prices was cited as the reason behind some of the job losses this year, it adds. The majority of the job cuts in June comes from Entertainment/Leisure companies, retailers were second, services sector third, followed by the automotive sector.

  Arguing for a better-than-consensus report:

  • Big Data. Alternative datasets generally validate this message, with sizeable increases in mobility data from Google and Homebase and an 8% increase in the employment ratio in the Dallas Fed’s Real Time Population Survey.
  • Seasonality. There should be a seasonal bias in education categories to boost job growth by roughly 0.5mn, as some of the janitors and other school staff who normally finish the school year in May and June stopped work in April.
  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—rebounded meaningfully to -3.0 from -12.7 in May and -15.7 in April (but remains in contractionary territory).
  • Employer surveys. Business activity surveys improved on net in June but generally remained in near contractionary territory, and the employment components of Goldman’s survey trackers rebounded somewhat less sharply (non-manufacturing +5.2 to 37.6; manufacturing +5.1 to 43.8).

  Arguing for a worse-than-consensus report:

  • Jobless claims. While initial jobless claims indicate that layoffs proceeded at an elevated pace (averaging 1.8mn per week), continued claims declined by 1.3mn from survey week to survey week. Furthermore, the decline in continuing claims likely understates the pace of job growth because underemployed part-time workers are still generally eligible for benefits (and the $600 benefit top-up increases the incentive to continue to file).
  • Census hiring. Census temporary workers are set to decline by 4k in June due to the coronavirus.

  Neutral factors:

  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report rose by 2,369k in June. While below expectations, the implications of the miss for are clouded by large swings in the statistical inputs to the ADP model this month, in our view. Our main takeaway from the report was the upbeat remarks in the report itself, which presumably is a reflection of the underlying ADP data.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas pulled back 51% in June to 182k after falling 45% in May and rising 266% in April. Despite the decline, they remain 304% above their June 2019 levels.

  

• CBP Intercepts 13 Tons Of Human Hair From Chinese Prison Camps
  CBP Intercepts 13 Tons Of Human Hair From Chinese Prison Camps
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 21:45

  Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraACarter.com,

  U.S. Customs and Border Protection at the Port of New York/Newark seized a shipment of human hair from China suspected of being “forced labor products,” according to a press release.

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  The packages weighed nearly 13 tons and have an estimated value of over $800,000.

  “It is absolutely essential that American importers ensure that the integrity of their supply chain meets the humane and ethical standards expected by the American government and by American consumers,” said Brenda Smith, Executive Assistant Commissioner of the CBP Office of Trade.

  Smith added,

  “The production of these goods constitutes a very serious human rights violation, and the detention order is intended to send a clear and direct message to all entities seeking to do business with the United States that illicit and inhumane practices will not be tolerated in U.S. supply chains.”

  The hair came from Lop County Meixin Hair Product Co. Ltd., which is located in China’s Xinjiang region, an area where the Chinese government has imprisoned Uighurs, a Turkic-ethnic minority.

  The PRC’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang put businesses at risk of exposing their supply chains to forced labor and other abuses. Businesses must do their due diligence to avoid reputational, economic, and legal risks. Don’t be complicit.

  — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) July 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In recent days, the Trump administration has expressed condemnation over reports indicating that Beijing is attempting to control the Uighur population through mass forced sterilization, Intrauterine Contraceptive Devices, and abortions.

  According to the AP’s extensive investigation into what some are calling the Chinese government’s genocidal campaign, birth rates among the majority-Muslim group have dramatically dropped to unprecedented numbers in recent years.

  Rushan Abbas, a Uighur activist living in America who spoke to the Associated Press, warned of China’s human rights abuses in detention camps where she suspects her missing sister is right now.

  “This is so heartbreaking for us,” Abbas said.

  “I want people to think about the slavery people are experiencing today. My sister is sitting somewhere being forced to make what, hair pieces?”

  In May, CBP made a similar detainment of hair, that time synthetic hair weaves, from a company called Hetian Haolin Hair Accessories Co. Ltd. That company is also located in Xinjiang.

  Moreover, the two hair companies have both been placed under CBP Withhold Release Orders, meaning CBP can seize the products for suspected ties to forced labor allowing the producer an opportunity to make their case.

  

• Rehired Workers Get Axed As States Pause Or Reverse Reopening
  Rehired Workers Get Axed As States Pause Or Reverse Reopening
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 21:25

  Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday as optimism flourished following a positive COVID-19 vaccine headline (one of many we’ve seen in the last several months). It appears the hope and hype of vaccine headlines and President Trump’s pumping of a V-shaped economic recovery could be in the latter innings as confirmed cases surged across the country as governors are pausing reopenings. 

  On Tuesday, more than 48,000 confirmed virus cases were reported across the US. Most of the cases were centered in these states – Arizona, California, Georgia, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Texas. 

  Dr. Anthony Fauci told Congress on Tuesday that confirmed virus cases could spike to 100,000 – now resulting in some states to press the pause button or even reversing reopenings.

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  Many of the states pausing or reversing reopenings are across the Sun Belt region. The emergence of the virus is due to Memorial Day parties. 

  Bloomberg notes reversing of planned reopenings could spark the next wave of layoffs, adding that newly hired workers are getting the ax once again. 

  Jeffrey Bank, who heads Alicart Restaurant Group, was in the process of reopening his restaurant based inside the Tropicana casino in Atlantic City last week but was greeted by new communication from Governor Phil Murphy that a delayed restart of indoor dining will be seen due to a recent surge in virus cases. 

  Bank said he’ll lose $100,000 on the false restart and will layoff 100 people whom he’d just recently rehired.

  The surge in cases could derail nationwide reopenings – along with President Trump’s economic V-shaped recovery that he routinely touts on Twitter. Data this week shows Florida’s Miami-Dade County reported its highest numbers of hospitalizations and Houston, intensive-care units soared to 97% of capacity. 

  In recent days, Arizona, Florida, Colorado, and Texas closed bars and nightclubs to contain the spread – while Arizona shutdown gyms, water parks, and movie theaters. 

  Bahram Akradi, a gym owner in Arizona, said he was furious when the governor’s office told him his facilities had to close for a second time.

  “No grocery store has taken our measures,” Akradi said. “No Home Depot has taken our measures. No business has taken the measures we have.”

  Ron Smith owns 13 McDonald’s stores in the Las Vegas area, said his dining rooms are closing again due to the emergence of the virus. 

  “We were incorrect, meaning the country,” he said, on opening up certain areas this spring. “It’s disappointing,” said Smith. 

  He was not hopeful about reopening dining rooms until the spring of 2021. 

  It seems a lot of the progress made during the initial lockdowns to flatten the curve are reversing: Lakeland, a Florida city, east of Tampa, has about a dozen restaurants and six bars that fear lockdowns are imminent. 

  Jack McHugh, a manger of Lakeland’s mainstays, Molly McHugh’s Irish pub, worries that curfews are coming to the downtown district. 

  Bloomberg notes that in states where virus cases are surging, the economy is starting to relapse as consumption plunges. 

  Customer transactions at major restaurant chains had been increasing in recent weeks, even if they were still down when compared with last year. However, that momentum reversed itself in the week ended June 21 after infections rose in much of the South and West, according to market researcher NPD Group.

  In Arizona, transactions at major chains had roared back and were down only 1% in mid-June from a year ago, but now they’re down 7%, NPD data show. Transactions slipped by five percentage points in both North Carolina and Nevada. – Bloomberg

  Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global, a global macro research fund, tweeted a chart of confirmed virus cases rising in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona, and said these states equate to 34% of US GDP.

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  Goldman Sachs provides some more color via its state-level coronavirus tracker that calculates 40% of the US has now reversed or placed reopening on hold.  

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  The economic recovery of the US is rapidly changing before our eyes – the overhyped “V” is now transforming to a “U” or “L” or even a Nike Swoosh.  

  

• Stockman: The Virulent 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' Is Back With A Vengeance
  Stockman: The Virulent ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ Is Back With A Vengeance
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 21:05

  Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

  As the Impeachment Farce neared its pathetic denouement, an optimist might have expected that the virulent Trump Derangement Syndrome infecting the MSM, the Dems and the Washington ruling class would finally die out.

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  Not at all. It’s back with a vengeance, lurking in the subtext and sotto voce of virtually every headline and utterance from the above precincts with respect to the Covid-19.

  Indeed, the entire Covid narrative is so hideously distorted, exaggerated, mendacious and risible as to finally confirm what’s actually been at bottom of the successive waves of RussiaGate, UkraineGate, the Impeachment Farce, the Covid-Hysteria and now the Summer of Race Huckstering, too.

  Namely: Orange Man Bad!

  It’s as simple and primitive as that. In the present instance, only the filter of Orange Man Bad can possibly explain each new twist and turn of the MSM’s Covid narrative, which has essentially degenerated into a running show trial-like prosecution.

  But finally they have gotten so desperate and hysterical that they are just flat-out fabricating, censoring and falsifying the evidence with respect to the so-called second wave allegedly hitting the Sun Belt states.

  Their true purpose however, is nakedly evident. They are so infuriated about the Donald’s claims that the virus is abating (it is) and that it’s time to reopen America and get back to business (it really is!) that they are literally attempting to tag him with de facto genocide.

  Needless to say, whatever is going on in Texas, Florida and Arizona, it isn’t an eruption of the Black Plague, even if you extrapolate the current elevated level of “positives” for several months into the future.

  So let us go back to the basics. Even in the worst hit precincts of New York City, there never was a random sample Grim Reaper marauding through the general population. The very bad numbers of cases and deaths coming from the five boroughs were overwhelmingly the product of a catastrophic mismanagement of nursing and other long-term care homes and other abandoned elderly already afflicted with life-threatening morbidities.

  But even then, when you compare the case and death rates per 100,000 for NYC’s three most rotten boroughs – the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn – with what is happening in the major Texas cities, for instance, it’s not the same zip code or even the same planet.

  Covid Cases/Deaths Per 100,000 Persons as of June 27:

  • Bronx: 3,346/234;

  • Queens: 2,867/222;

  • Brooklyn: 2,345/198;

  • Houston: 567/7.;

  • Dallas: 696/13;

  • Fort Worth: 500/10;

  • San Antonio: 423/5;

  • Austin: 549/9;

  The media drumbeat in recent days has especially focused on the alleged surge of new cases in Houston/Harris County, featuring the same old hoary prediction of overflowing hospitals and ICUs that turned out not to be true even in NYC – except for a few hospitals at the epicenter of the pandemic in the Bronx for a few peak weeks in March/April.

  Yet just like in the case of the flooded NYC hospitals myth, the readily accessible facts with respect to Texas and Houston refute this weekend’s media blitz entirely.

  And they also underscore the everlasting laziness and servility of the MSM. After all, if you start with a positive case rate per 100,000 in Houston that is currently only 17 percent of that recorded for the Bronx and a death rate that is only 3 percent of what occurred in the Bronx, why in the world would you even think that Houston is teetering on the edge of a medical calamity?

  That’s especially the case if you happen to have the basic knowledge that Houston sports one of the great medical complexes of the entire world. That is, it’s a health care rich community experiencing only a tiny fraction of the Covid case load that happened in NYC.

  Beyond that, we are no longer in the horse and buggy age, obviously. Given that patients can be reallocated to other communities if need be, the relevant hospital capacity is not just Houston’s, but capacity in other places around the state that are not experiencing the same level of Covid case increases now occurring in Houston.

  So here are the statewide facts: As of June 25, Texas had 54,700 staffed acute care hospital beds, but only 41,950 were being used, implying a occupancy rate of just 76.7 percent and 12,750 empty beds still available.

  Moreover, only about 5,000 beds representing 12 percent of the current census were occupied by confirmed or suspected Covid patients. So as of June 25 the state had nearly 2.5X more empty hospital beds than it had Covid patients, notwithstanding the surge of new cases and hospitalizations during the month of June.

  In fact, that’s not the half of it. Owing to seasonal factors, the number of empty hospital beds has actually been rising during the spring months even in the face of the soaring Covid caseload.

  That’s right. On March 18, Texas had 46,550 occupied hospital beds, reflecting an occupancy rate of 85 percent or well above the 76.7 percent level as of June 25.

  But back in March virtually none of these occupied beds were attributable to Covid patients. That’s because at that point there had been only be 83 confirmed Covid cases and 2 deaths reported for the entire state!

  By then what happened over the next three months, as the Covid caseload built up from zero to the present 5,000, is that even more beds emptied out due to:

  – state orders prohibiting elective surgeries and other treatments;

  – normal seasonal declines in occupancy; and

  – aggressive reclassification of patients admitted for other reasons as Covid patients.

  As to the latter point, it seems that Texas health officials started logging every single COVID-19-positive patient in the state as a COVID-19 hospitalization, even if the patients themselves were admitted seeking treatment for something other than the coronavirus.

  As Lindsey Rosales, a spokesman for the Texas Department of Public Health Services, confirmed recently to an independent investigator:

  ‘The number of hospitalized patients includes patients with a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 even if the person is admitted to the hospital for a different reason,’ Rosales said.

  Moreover, nearly everyone admitted for some other medical condition – and presumably asymptomatic for Covid – gets tested for Covid-19 before other treatments or surgeries are permitted:

  Texas Health Resources, one of the state’s largest hospital systems, says on its website that its ‘patients [are] tested before most procedures.’ Elective surgeries and other medical procedures in Texas have gone up in recent weeks as the state has gradually re-opened following its lockdown.

  In other words, the first wave of Lockdowns created a huge backlog of demand for elective surgeries and other discretionary treatments, which were banned by state authorities. But once those bans were lifted and people got in the hospital for deferred treatments, they were tested for Covid and became the statistical gruel for the so-called second wave.

  But even then, the Texas hospital statistics over the last three months make mincemeat out of the national media’s weekend narrative that Texas hospitals will soon be overflowing into the hallways. To wit, here is the trend of unused acute care beds in the Texas hospital system:

  • – 3/18: 8,155;

  • – 4/1: 18,411;

  • – 4/15: 21,489;

  • – 4/29: 19,432;

  • – 5/20: 16,035;

  • – 5/27: 15,315;

  • – 6/3: 15,219;

  • – 6/10: 13,271;

  • – 6/17: 14,993;

  • – 6/25: 12,571

  In short, Texas had gone from virtually no Covid cases or deaths on March 18 to 131,917 cases and 2,296 deaths by June 25, but it actually had 56 percent more empty hospital beds on the latter date!

  You can’t make this stuff up. The MSM is so intoxicated by Orange Man Bad that it has essentially turned journalism into a kangaroo court of juvenile imprecations.

  Nor are we attempting to deceptively drown the case in statewide averages. As of last week, the Houston area alone had 12,458 staffed acute care beds (23 percent of the statewide total), but 2,675 or 21 percent of these were empty; and on top of that they had an additional surge capacity of another 925 beds.

  That’s especially salient because the rise in cases in Texas and Houston has generally been among a much younger population than earlier in the pandemic, and the need has been for exactly these kinds of general beds, not ICU beds.

  So the fact is, as of last week the Houston area hospitals had just 795 lab confirmed Covid patients, representing just 8 percent of their 9,785 daily census. That also means that given Houston’s 3,600 beds of remaining surge capacity, they could actually accommodate a 4X increase in their current Covid caseload.

  As it happened, even the leadership of the Houston health care community finally had enough from CNN, NBC, and the rest of the Covid Calamity Howlers, and struck back this weekend with a resounding denial of this spurious crisis narrative.

  For instance, the CEO of one Houston’s leading hospitals, Memorial Hermann, pulled no punches:

  We actually still think we have plenty of capacity to meet the demand for Covid, as well as non-Covid patients. We’re always busy in the summertime, and what we’re seeing now is a typical summer for us.

  Callender, whose not-for-profit health system has 17 hospitals in the Houston area, stressed that the medical network’s capacity is ‘constantly in flux’ and needing to be managed. ‘But right now, we’re able to do that very well,’ he said.

  ‘Across our system, we have about 4,000 beds that we can bring into play’ for intensive care, he said. ‘Right now, only about 30 percent are being utilized for Covid care, so we still have plenty of capacity for Covid patients as well as patients who need hospitalization for other illnesses.’

  Doctors and nurses also have learned how to better treat Covid-19 patients after three months of its presence, said Callender, who joined Memorial Hermann in 2019.

  ‘We’re seeing a slightly lower rate in terms of the number of typical hospital bed patients who convert to a need for ICU hospitalization. We’re also using ventilators less frequently,’ he said. ‘We have more drugs at our disposable that we know help limit the severity and duration of the illness. So overall we’re faring better than we did just a couple months ago.’

  Likewise, chimed in Dr. Marc Boom, President and CEO of another leading institution, Houston Methodist:

  The number of hospitalizations are ‘being misinterpreted,’ said Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom, ‘and, quite frankly, we’re concerned that there is a level of alarm in the community that is unwarranted right now.’

  ‘We do have the capacity to care for many more patients, and have lots of fluidity and ability to manage,’ Boom said.

  Boom pointed out that his hospital one year ago was also at 95 percent ICU capacity – long before Covid was a thing!

  That’s right. Apparently, 95 percent utilization of the ICU is a typical June condition, not the sign of the Covid Apocalypse. And contrary to the heated headlines on the MSM, only about 25 percent of Houston’s fully occupied ICU’s are accounted for by Covid patients.

  Again from Boom:

  ‘It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s,’ he said. ‘That’s how all hospitals operate.’

  …the hospital ‘[has] many levers in our ability to adjust our ICU,’ he said, claiming that the hospital capacity regularly reported by the media is ‘base’ capacity rather than surge capacity.

  Boom also alluded to hospitals’ ability to turn regular beds into ICU beds as well as to turn recovery, and pre- and post surgical areas into ICU areas if needed as a kind of coronavirus ‘flex area.’

  Specifically, there are about 2,200 ICU beds in the Houston service area, but another 500 beds could be added to this after such planned for conversions and re-purposings. And Boom also pointed out an even more salient point:

  Boom said overall, hospitals are seeing younger COVID-19 patients, who stay for a shorter period of time, and fewer deaths. Houston Methodist CEO Dr. Marc Boom told CNBC on Monday that the demographics of the outbreak have ‘flipped’ and that the mostly-younger people arriving in the state’s hospitals often don’t require ICU beds, even though many do get very sick.

  Finally, there was this rebuke to the smirking CNN anchor, who on Saturday had been bemoaning that the situation was allegedly so desperate that a Houston children’s hospital had been drafted into Covid service at great risk to the children.

  Not at all, according to Mark Wallace, Texas Children’s Hospital president and CEO. Actually, this was just part of the systems’ surge plan:

  Texas Children’s started accepting adult COVID-19 positive patients this week and is currently operating at a 74 percent ICU occupancy, Wallace said.

  ‘We have the ability to take care of all of the Houstonians that need a critical care environment, that need to be operated on, or acute care,’ Wallace said.

  As we said, the MSM, the Dems and the Washington ruling class are literally rabid with Orange Mad Bad.

  The recent ballyhooed Covid surge and hospital capacity crisis in Texas is just one more case in point.

  

• Taiwan Navy Holds Live-Fire Drills With F-16s Dropping Bomb Nicknamed "The Hammer"
  Taiwan Navy Holds Live-Fire Drills With F-16s Dropping Bomb Nicknamed “The Hammer”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:45

  Here we go again: the Taiwan Navy is conducing a show of force live-fire drill Wednesday which involves a fleet of F-16 fighter jets simulating attacks on enemy ships off Taiwan’s eastern coast, according to the country’s national news agency CNA.

  Crucially the exercises involve the live deployment of multiple MK-84 general purpose bombs, which are large American-made “heavy unguided bombs” which weigh about 2,000 pounds.

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  CNA describes of the bomb in what’s no doubt a hugely provocative signal to Beijing: “On impact, the MK-84 can blow apart buildings and other structures. It can penetrate metal up to 38 centimeters and concrete up to 3.4 meters, depending on the height from which it is dropped, and it causes lethal fragmentation across a radius of 370m.”

  The free-fall released MK-84 was used widely by the United States in Vietnam and is nicknamed “the Hammer” – given its significant destructive power and blast radius. As it’s unguided it’s also deemed among an arsenal of “dumb bombs”.

  Torpedo drills were also said to be part of these newest exercises, though there were no reported live torpedo firings. 

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  But the Taiwan Navy is expected to carry out its first torpedo live-fire since 2007 on July 15, according to military sources cited in CNA.

  Even throughout the pandemic China has of late made multiple intrusions in Taiwan via fighter jets and warships, also during provocative war games meant to answer Taipei and its US backers.

  

• Mexico Now Has The World's 6th-Deadliest Outbreak, Passing Spain: Live Updates
  Mexico Now Has The World’s 6th-Deadliest Outbreak, Passing Spain: Live Updates
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:39

  Summary:

  • Mexico passes Spain as world’s 6th deadliest outbreak
  • Miami-Dade makes mask wearing mandatory in public
  • Texas reports record jump in cases, most deaths in 6 weeks
  • Pennsylvania 4th state to see record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • North Carolina reports record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • Cali orders 19 counties to close
  • Trump does U-turn on masks
  • California orders 19 counties including LA to close restaurants dining for 3 weeks
  • Apple closes another 30 stores
  • Atlanta Airport closes
  • California reports another record jump
  • Houston ICUS at 102% capacity
  • Nevada reports third-highest daily total yet
  • NY releases Wednesday numbers
  • Arizona reports another record daily case count
  • NYC delays return of indoor dining
  • Florida reports daily cases for last 24 hours
  • Goldman says 40% of US has rolled back economic reopening or put them on hold
  • Oxford scientist warns vaccine by end of year far from guaranteed
  • Pfizer vaccine headline sends futures higher
  • US reported 48k+ new cases yesterday
  • Australia locks down 300k in Victoria
  • Brazil imposes travel ban as deaths near 60k
  • Tokyo reports most cases since state of emergency lifted
  • German infection rate below R for 7th day

  * * *

  Update (2030ET): Mexico’s death toll just hit 28,510, surpassing Spain as the world’s sixth-deadliest outbreak as officials reported another 741 new deaths. Mexican public health officials reported 5,681 new cases on Wednesday, bringing the national case tally to 231,770. Whistleblowers at hospitals around Mexico City, the epicenter of Mexico’s outbreak, and elsewhere have accused the government of conspiring to suppress the true number of deaths.

  * * *

  Update (2015ET): Following Apple’s third wave of store closures announced earlier today, McDonald’s has just instructed its franchisees to close indoor dining across the US.

  McDonald’s Corp. is pausing the resumption of all dine-in services in its U.S. restaurants as the coronavirus outbreak flares up in areas across the country.

  The halt will last for 21 days, the fast-food chain said in an internal letter that was viewed by Bloomberg. Locations that have already reopened their dining rooms should consult guidance from local and state officials on whether to roll back services, according to the letter, which was signed by Joe Erlinger, McDonald’s U.S. president, and Mark Salebra, head of the National Franchisee Leadership Alliance.

  * * *

  Update (1800ET): Miami-Dade just joined the city of Jacksonville by independently mandating the wearing of masks in public.

  • MIAMI-DADE TO REQUIRES MASKS IN ALL PUBLIC SPACES

  * * *

  Update (1650ET): In a repeat of yesterday’s action, more dire data has arrived out of Texas which just reported another record jump in new cases – its second daily record in a row – along with the most single-day deaths in 6 weeks.

  • TEXAS NEW VIRUS CASES TOP 8,000; DEATHS JUMP MOST IN 6 WEEKS

  The new daily total was 8,076, a full 1,000 cases higher than yesterday’s total.

  Texas reports 8,076 new cases today, another record. pic.twitter.com/TxRMdwq22m

  — Patrick W. Watson (@PatrickW) July 1, 2020

  * * *

  Update (1530ET): PA just became the latest state to order people to wear masks outside the home after the state reported its largest one-day jump in COVID-19 cases, driven largely by an increase in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties. Only a dozen states or so now don’t require people to wear masks in public.

  Meanwhile, US virus cases climbed 1.8% on Wednesday, slightly slower than yesterday’s 1.9%, which is also the 7-day average.

  * * *

  Update (1510ET): North Carolina just became at least the third US state to report a record jump in new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday by reporting its highest day of confirmed COVID-19 cases, with another 1,843. Elsewhere, the new case totals were fairly high. Louisiana reported 2,041 new coronavirus cases, Tennessee 1,806 and Alabama 917.

  The news comes as the Guardian reports on ‘cover-ups’ at slaughterhouses in North Carolina, as companies quietly report COVID-19 cases infecting workers at the plant, but it’s unclear how – or even if – those cases are being counted toward the statewide total.

  Meanwhile, President Trump just followed Mike Pence by publicly declaring support for mask wearing, with the president saying he supports wearing masks in public, though he refused to commit to wearing one – even as Chuck Grassley pushed him to – and added that mask-wearing shouldn’t be mandatory. During an interview with Fox Business Wednesday afternoon, Trump made a few other more conciliatory comments, like voices support for a higher minimum wage (he said he would soon have an announcement and that he ‘disagrees with more Republicans’ on the issue) while also express support for Jerome Powell, saying he had grown more comfortable with the Fed chairman’s performance (and why not? the central bank is doing everything that Trump wants it to do).

  In addition to ordering restaurants in LA County to cease offering indoor dining for three weeks, the state of California is also ordering an additional 18 counties to close restaurant dining.

  * * *

  Update (1426ET):   California Gov Gavin News just ordered all LA Restaurants to close for three weeks, though he said those that are able can continue serving takeout and delivery.

  Gov. Newsom to Order Immediate Closure of LA Restaurants For Next Three Weeks https://t.co/xOyoIYyG7A #california #bar pic.twitter.com/Z6XbC0891F

  — Angel City Buzz (@Angel_City_Buzz) July 1, 2020

  Meanwhile, Apple just announced that it’s closing another 30 stores as the US outbreak worsens. The new closures will bring its total closures in the US in recent weeks to 77. Alabama, California, Georgia, Idaho, Lousiana, Nevada, and Oklahoma will see Apple store closures tomorrow. Other stores in Florida, Mississippi, Texas, and Utah are closed as of Wednesday. Apple has 271 stores in the US, meaning nearly 30% of its stores have been shut.

  * * *

  Update (1400ET): Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Airport has closed its TSA checkpoint after employee tested positive.

  • ATLANTA AIRPORT CLOSES TSA CHECKPOINT AFTER TSA EMPLOYEE TESTS POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS – CBS46

  * * *

  Update (1345ET): California just reported another record jump in total virus cases, with nearly 1,000 new cases reported on Tuesday, a day that often sees a bump in new cases following the weekend backlog. The number is about 50% higher than Monday’s total. The state’s last record total, nearly 9k cases in a day, was reported 2 days ago on June 29.

  NEW: CA #coronavirus daily case count smashes record again, reaching 9740 in a single day. The previous high was 7149 set 1 week ago.

  In the past day, 110 people died as a result of #COVID19. California has not seen that many deaths since April when 115 died in a single day.

  — Ana Cabrera (@AnaCabrera) July 1, 2020

  • CALIFORNIA POSTS RECORD 9,740 NEW VIRUS CASES; 4.4% DAILY JUMP
  • CALIFORNIA REPORTS 110 ADDITIONAL COVID-19 DEATHS

  It brought the state’s case total to 232,657. The more notable daily total is the number of deaths reported on Tuesday; the 110 deaths is more than double yesterday’s total.

  * * *

  Update (1310ET): Houston’s Texas Medical Center, which operates four hospitals in the city, just reported that its COVID-19 ICU capacity is at 102%, meaning patients are beginning to be diverted to its “overflow” care facilities (including a stadium). That’s up from 97% capacity yesterday.

  • HOUSTON-AREA ICUS REACH 102% OF CAPACITY: TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER

  Meanwhile, as the MSM, including the Associated Press, that bastion of ‘neutral unbiased reporting’, continues to push the ‘nobody was infected at the protests’ narrative, we’d like to remind the world of this local news report from two weeks ago.

  Roughly two weeks ago, Shamone Turner and her friends, joined a large demonstration for George Floyd. An estimated 60,000 people were in attendance, marching from Discovery Green to Houston’s City Hall.

  “I actually got sick the day after the march,” said Turner. “I could not move out of the bed. I was in the bed just sighing.”

  According to Turner, several of her friends with her at the march also tested positive for the Coronavirus. Turner says they were all wearing masks.

  “I definitely don’t regret getting the COVID, because I was out there doing the right thing for the right cause,” said Turner.
  The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continues to climb across Texas.

  Just some food for thought…

  …meanwhile, here’s a chart of the curves for each of the worst offending states.

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  * * *

  Update (1300ET): Nevada state health officials just reported the state’s third-largest daily total yet, with 645 new cases reported Wednesday, bringing the case total to 19,101. 4 more deaths were reported, bringing the statewide total to 511. A total of 331,318 tests have been performed statewide since the outbreak started.

  Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and some of the surrounding area, remains the biggest hotspot in the state.

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  * * *

  Update (1150ET): New York Gov Andrew Cuomo just released the state’s latest numbers. Today’s 11 deaths is higher than the 5 seen yesterday.

  Today’s update on the numbers:

  56,710 tests were performed yesterday. 625 tests came back positive (1.1% of total).

  Total hospitalizations fell to 879.

  Sadly, there were 11 COVID fatalities yesterday. pic.twitter.com/brF7hs0q7a

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) July 1, 2020

  After confirming that NYC won’t begin indoor dining next week, the governor added that he’s expanding testing even further to include “all” New Yorkers, as “new problems” have been identified in New York City. As for the timing for indoor dining in NYC, Cuomo said indoor dining will be banned “until the facts change” and/or “until it’s safe and prudent”.

  He blamed the decision on a ‘partial lack of individual compliance’ and a ‘partial lack of local enforcement’…too bad he can’t just say ‘the protests’.

  Beginning today we are expanding our testing criteria statewide to ALL New Yorkers.

  There is enough capacity.

  Get tested.

  — Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) July 1, 2020

  Sounds like more hollow pandering to us.

  * * *

  Update (1130ET): Arizona has reported a second-straight record tally of daily infections, and a record daily death toll, adding to fears that deaths might be climbing with a lag. Cases climbed by 4,878 (+6.2%). while deaths rose by 88.

  • ARIZONA REPORTS RECORD ONE-DAY INCREASE IN VIRUS CASES

  These numbers bring the state’s totals to 84,092 COVID-19 cases and 1,720 fatalities. The previous single-day highs were 4,682 yesterday and 79 deaths from June 24.

  The market isn’t taking the double daily record (cases AND deaths) too well.

  KTAR News says the daily reports in Arizona present data after the state receives statistics and compiles them, which can lag by several days. They don’t actually represent the activity over the past 24 hours. After closing bars, gyms and other establishments earlier this week, Gov Ducey said he expected case counts to keep increasing for several weeks before the impact comes about. But any increase in deaths is bound to alarm public health officials.

  Nearly 5,000 people are hospitalized in Arizona, though the rate by which this number has been increasing appears to be slowing, cases have been on the rise for weeks without a break, as the chart below (from the state’s website) shows.

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  * * *

  Update (1030ET): Just yesterday, we shared a factoid from WaPo claiming that almost zero US states are seeing COVID-19 cases decline; instead, states like NY, NJ & Connecticut have seen daily figures plateau, prompting some officials to worry as cases surge across the south and West, with just 4 states accounting for 50% of new cases.

  So, as expected, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed on Wednesday that NYC would delay the return of indoor dining, which was scheduled to happen July 6.

  “Honestly, even a week ago, honestly, I was hopeful we could. But the news we have gotten from around the country gets worse and worse all the time,” he said during the opening of the briefing.

  Meanwhile, Citigroup, a major NYC-headquartered bank, announced Wednesday that it would delay plans to bring workers back into the office. NYC is expected to enter Phase 3 of its reopening plan on July 6, though de Blasio couldn’t yet commit to a timeframe for reopening indoor dining.

  De Blasio said during his press briefing that the “postponement” was due to the unfortunate and avoidable surge in new cases around the US. He later clarified that while social distancing laws will be ‘enforced’, NYPD and the state police won’t be involved in that since NYC has “learned from its mistakes” (remember that video of the cops beating the crap out of that guy in the village?)

  Watch the rest of his statement below:

  Join us at City Hall. https://t.co/jev38NqcYy

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) July 1, 2020

  Florida just reported its latest daily case numbers.

  • FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES RISE 4.3% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 5.7%

  The upward momentum in Florida’s daily case counts has slowed over the past few days, though the state remains one of the biggest contributors of new cases. Gov. Ron DeSantis again said he wouldn’t impose a mandatory mask-wearing mandate state wide.

  DeSantis said reversing reopening wasn’t necessary since most of those being infected are younger people who bear a lower risk.

  “Most of the folks in those younger demographics, although we want them to be mindful of what’s going on, are just simply much, much less at risk than the folks who are in those older age groups,” DeSantis said.

  In Jupiter, Florida, a rehab center confirmed that 38 patients and 30 employees had tested positive for the virus, according to the Palm Beach Post. Elsewhere in Jupiter, the Courtyard Gardens of Jupiter assisted living home has transferred out 15 patients who have tested positive, according to state data.

  Blue checks are already whining about how de Blasio’s delay creates the need for a restaurant bailout.

  Kind of incredible that an entire restaurant can take the place of one single parking spot pic.twitter.com/yLIly7qOT4

  — Rebecca Fishbein (@bfishbfish) June 30, 2020

  And no doors present to hit cyclists in the bike lane, what a concept

  — Rebecca Fishbein (@bfishbfish) June 30, 2020

  Also I do know this is not an entire restaurant, was simply commenting on how much stupid space cars take up. Restaurants & staff are hurting & the gov’t insists on opening up instead of bailing them out, so please consider donating to a relief fund: https://t.co/2YvI8H92YD

  — Rebecca Fishbein (@bfishbfish) July 1, 2020

  Though others are taking things a step further and asking the important, if uncomfortable, questions.

  Without a bailout of the restaurant industry, I’m curious what the ethical don’t-go-to-bars-and-restaurants crowd thinks is the solution to support service industry workers who rely customers to make a living.

  — Max Tani (@maxwelltani) July 1, 2020

  It’s not really clear who should be doing the bailing out here (City Hall? the Trump Administration? Albany?) but we imagine these professional journalists haven’t thought that far ahead.

  * * *

  Update (0955ET): Cementing a pattern that we’ve seen repeatedly since the great race for a mass-produced COVID-19 vaccine began (with the US government selecting several trials to aid directly via its “operation warp speed” program), every time an extremely preliminary headline prompts a rally in stocks, another headline from a scientist expressing caution arrives a few minutes later to push stocks back down.

  • OXFORD SCIENTIST DEVELOPING POSSIBLE COVID-19 VACCINE SAYS DO NOT ASSUME VACCINE BY THE WINTER, BE PREPARED FOR THE WORST

  And just like that…stocks aren’t happy.

  * * *

  Update (0900ET): Despite claiming it would wait to publish study results in a journal, the latest results from one of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trials been released, and stocks predictably spiked higher, following a report from Stat News, that bastion of ever-reliable trial updates.

  Futures are surging…

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  Like prior vaccine news-inspired leaks, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this rally fade as traders peruse the Stat News report, which was based on a non-peer-reviewed paper published to the website Medrx.

  An experimental Covid-19 vaccine being developed by the drug giant Pfizer and the biotech firm BioNTech spurred immune responses in healthy patients, but also caused fever and other side effects, especially at higher doses.

  The first clinical data on the vaccine were disclosed Wednesday in a paper released on MedRXiv, a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal.

  The Pfizer study randomly assigned 45 patients to get one of three doses of the vaccine or placebo. Twelve receive a 10 microgram dose, 12 a 30 μg dose, 12 a 100 μg dose, and nine a placebo. The 100 μg dose caused fevers in half of patients; a second dose was not given at that level.

  Following a second injection three weeks later of the other doses, 8.3% of the participants in the 10 μg group and 75% of those in the 30 μg group developed fevers. More than 50% of the patients who received one of those doses reported some kind of adverse event, including fever and sleep disturbances. None of these side effects was deemed serious, meaning they did not result in hospitalization or disability and were not life-threatening.

  The company is hoping to get permission to start a larger phase 3 trial as early as August. Pfizer’s CEO told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell last week that he had the first batch of trial results in-hand.

  * * *

  Arizona became one of the first states to lift coronavirus-related restrictions back in May as the number of daily cases were just passing their peaks in the northeast and the other hard-hit states. But its decision earlier this week to reverse course and close bars, gyms etc. seemed to mark a turning point for the battleground state. Dr. Fauci’s warnings about 100k+ new cases per day has clearly rattled the GOP, leading to VP Mike Pence urging all Americans to wear masks while in public (if local regulations asked them to do so).

  The US reported more than 40k new cases yesterday (remember, cases are reported with a 24 hour delay) for the fifth day out of six, as we noted last night.

  Confirmed coronavirus infections in the US increased by 48,096 to 2.61 million on Tuesday, a rise of 1.9%, more than the 7-day daily average, per BBG.

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  According to the latest update from Kevin Systrom’s COVID-19 tracker, the state with the highest “R” rate (a measure of the rapidity of the virus’s spread) is Nevada, with Florida and Texas not far behind.

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  According to the Washington Post, the states with the worst outbreaks per capita roughly corresponded with “R Live”s calculations.

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  Source: WaPo

  A map of infections and outbreaks shows how badly the southern US has been hit.

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  Perhaps the biggest news on Wednesday morning is that the total number of COVID-19 cases globally has hit 10,498,090 while deaths have reached 511,686 deaths and more than 5.3 million have recovered.

  Though it appears the virus is growing less lethal as infections tilt toward young people.

  Perhaps the biggest news overnight is a report that Australia’s Victoria State will lock down 300,000 people in the suburbs of Melbourne in the 1-month lockdown that was reported earlier this week.

  In Japan, Tokyo confirmed 67 new cases on Wednesday, a new high since the emergency order in the prefecture was lifted. In Europe, Spain reopened its border with Portugal (and vice versa) and Greece has reopened its borders to some foreign travelers (while the EU’s list of travel guidelines stakes effect, which calls for member states to bar travelers from the US, but allow travelers from China). Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the critical “1” threshold for the 7th straight day on Wednesday following a concerning spike last week that saw a cluster of new cases at a meat processing plant in the country’s most populous state drive that “R” rate to just shy of 3.

  The US, meanwhile, has reportedly bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of remdesivir, one of the two drugs that have shown some efficacy at treating the virus (though a much cheaper and more widely available steroid has proven effective at lowering mortality in very sick patients), the Guardian reports. The decision leaves none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world.

  In Brazil, President Bolsonaro has imposed a travel ban on foreigners entering the country as the country’s death toll, the second-worst in the world after the US, is nearing 60,000. Brazil suffered 1,280 more deaths it reported yesterday, bringing the country’s confirmed death toll to 59,594, according to health ministry data.The total number of confirmed cases rose by 33,846 to reach 1,402,041, the worst outbreak in the world outside the US, though the US has once again started to expand the gap.

  

• India Monsoon Season Could See Gold Demand Soar
  India Monsoon Season Could See Gold Demand Soar
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:25

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  Gold just wrapped up a strong quarter, up 13%, and finishing at the highest price level in over eight years. On the year, gold is up about 16% and many mainstream analysts are starting to eyeball record gold prices in the coming months. But there has been some drag on the gold market, particularly sluggish consumer demand in the East – particularly in India.

  That could be changing.

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  India saw 18% more rainfall than average in June as the monsoon covered the entire country nearly two-weeks earlier than usual. This bodes well for India’s economy. As Reuters reported, “Monsoons deliver about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and are the lifeblood of its $2.9 trillion economy, spurring farm output and boosting rural spending on items ranging from gold to cars, motorcycles and refrigerators.”

  According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), soybean, pulses and cotton-growing regions in central and western parts of the country saw 31% more rainfall in June. Rice, coffee, rubber and tea growing regions in southern India received 8% higher rainfall. As of the last week in June, farmers had planted double the hectares planted last year when the monsoon season arrived late. According to Reuters, cotton sowing was up 165%, while rice planting rose by 35% during the period.

  An IMD official said India will likely see elevated rainfall in July as well.

  Gold has been at record highs in rupees squeezing demand for gold in the world’s second-largest market. Demand plunged to three-year lows in 2019. But a good rainy season and correspondingly strong agriculture output could jumpstart the Indian economy and revive demand for the yellow metal.

  Simply put, a good monsoon season is good news for Indian farmers, as well as for the broader Indian economy. And when rural Indians have money in their pockets, they buy gold.

  Collectively, Indian households own an estimated 25,000 tons of gold. The yellow metal is interwoven into the country’s marriage ceremonies and cultural rites. Indians also value gold as a store of wealth, especially in poor rural regions. Two-thirds of India’s gold demand comes from these areas, where the vast majority of people live outside the official tax system.

  Gold is not just a luxury in India. Even poor people buy gold in the Asian nation. According to an ICE 360 survey in 2018, one in every two households in India purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87% of households in the country own some amount of the yellow metal. Even households at the lowest income levels in India own some gold. According to the survey, more than 75% of families in the bottom 10% had managed to buy gold.

  Gold is the lifeblood of the Indian economy. Even now, it is serving as a valuable source of liquidity during the country’s credit crunch.

  A boost in Indian gold demand could be even further upward pressure on gold prices, even as central bank monetary policy drives the yellow metal higher.

  

• Federal Safety Regulators Are Probing Tesla's Battery Cooling System
  Federal Safety Regulators Are Probing Tesla’s Battery Cooling System
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 20:01

  Last week, Business Insider reported that when Tesla began selling its Model S back in 2012, the cars were equipped with a “poorly designed battery” that was susceptible to leaking, and that said leaks may have been the cause of short circuits and ensuing fires. More damning, however, and potentially exposing the company to criminal prosecution, is that Musk sold the cars despite allegedly knowing about the potentially deadly flaw. According to the report, the leaks became an “urgent concern” in spring 2012 due to two problems with the cooling system:

  • First, the aluminum Tesla chose to use for the end fitting of the cooling tube sourced from a Chinese company, was susceptible to cracks and pinholes, according to tests done by the third-party firm IMR Test Lab in the summer of 2012. Business Insider reviewed these test results.
  • And second, the design of the end fitting piece in the cooling system was imperfect, such that even after the part was brazed together, there were gaps between the cooling coil and its end fitting piece that connected it to the car, according to emails viewed by Business Insider. Sometimes, employees would have to force pieces together with a hammer to close gaps, according to internal Tesla documents viewed by Business Insider and a former Tesla employee.

  While traditionally federal regulators have ignored complaints about subpar Tesla quality control and design, this time the company, which earlier today surpassed Toyota as the world’s most valuable car maker with its stock price rising above $1,100 per share and equivalent to a market cap above $200 billion…

  <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

  … appears to finally be in the spotlight, because according to the LA Times, federal safety officials are probing allegations of defective cooling systems installed in early-model Tesla vehicles.

  Picking up on the Business Insider report which was based on a review of internal emails, the Times said it also reviewed copies of the emails “and other documentation that show the tubes were installed from 2012 until 2016, at which time Tesla cut off a supplier and began manufacturing the tubes in house.”

  The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in a statement to The Times, said it is “well aware of the reports regarding this issue and will take action if appropriate based upon the facts and data.” The agency also reminded auto manufacturers that they are required “to notify the agency within five days of when the manufacturer becomes aware of a safety related defect and conduct a recall.” Tesla appears to never have issued such notification.

  The National Transportation Safety Board also issued a statement to The Times, saying it is “in the final stages of completing a Special Investigative Report based upon its investigations of several crashes involving electric vehicles and the resultant battery fires/thermal events.“

  The NTSB is an investigatory agency which, unlike the NHTSA, has no enforcement power. When it investigates electric vehicles fires, the board said, it considers “whether an existing mechanical issue or material failure contributed to the crash or the severity of the crash.”

  The Business Insider article said that Tesla knew the battery cooling system installed in Model S cars had a flawed design but sold the cars anyway, citing internal documents and “three people familiar with the matter.”

  As noted last week, sources had told Business Insider that the end fittings on the cooling tubes often didn’t quite match up with the connection to the car and had to be forced into position — sometimes, the internal emails show, with a hammer. A source with direct knowledge of the matter told The Times the same thing, asking not to be identified for fear of retaliation by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk.

  The Times then adds that although Tesla used the same China-based supplier for four years, “it’s not clear if and when the cooling tube problems were remedied before Tesla brought manufacturing in-house in 2016. Without information from the company or safety regulators, it’s impossible to know how many cars were affected.”

  It’s also unclear whether the issue affects the Model X, which used the same cooling system. Model X production began in 2015.

  The Tesla Model 3 uses a different, more efficient cooling system that does away with the bending coils in the Model S and Model X.

  Citing battery fire experts, the Times notes that the flammable glycol coolant in the Model S system could cause or exacerbate a battery fire if the fluid or its residue contacts a broken battery cell after a crash. In a phenomenon known as thermal runaway, a single battery on fire can spread to other battery cells in a vehicle, causing a larger fire.

  On the surface, this would explain why over the years there had been quite a few reports of Tesla cars catching fire after accidents, as well as several occasions when the car burst into flames spontaneously.

  Although it’s unclear how common electric car fires are, there were several media reports of Tesla fires in the months leading up to May 2019, when Tesla began limiting Model S charges to 80% of capacity at the company’s Supercharger stations. The closer a battery gets to full, the hotter it gets.

  Last November, NHTSA said it was probing potential defects in Tesla batteries. According to The Times, the agency declined to say whether the cooling tube leak allegations are part of that investigation or are being looked at separately.

  

• Police Respond To Active Shooting On Oakland Highway; At Least 4 Shot
  Police Respond To Active Shooting On Oakland Highway; At Least 4 Shot
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:49

  Officers with the Golden Gate division of the California Highway Patrol are responding to an active shooting on Interstate 580 Wednesday afternoon, with media reports saying at least four people appear to have been shot in the eastboudn lanes near 106th Avenue.

  The Oakland Police Department is assisting CHP with a shooting that occurred on E/B 580 Freeway in the area of 106 Ave. At this time 4 victims have been reported injured. Traffic Stopped, please use alternate routes.

  — Oakland Police Dept. (@oaklandpoliceca) July 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Police haven’t immediately elaborated on the condition of the victims or a possible motive.

  The freeway heading eastbound is currently shut down.

   

  

• The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 2
  The COVID Crisis Supercharged The War On Cash, Part 2
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:45

  Authored by Claudio Grass,

  Read Part 1 here…

  With cash being presented not just as a danger to society and to national security, but also as a direct health hazard due to the coronavirus, the push towards digital alternatives has been massively reinforced over the last few months…

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  The digital “toll”

  It doesn’t require too dark an imagination to realize the gravity of the concerns over the digital yuan. China is a true pioneer when it comes surveillance, censorship and political oppression and the digital age has given an incredibly efficient and effective arsenal to the state. Adding money to that toolkit was a move that was planned for many years and it is abundantly clear how useful a tool it can be for any totalitarian regime. The ability to track citizens’ transactions, access their financial data, control and freeze the account of anyone that presents a potential threat, it all opens the door to the ultimate oppression: total control over private resources, over people’s livelihoods and their capacity to cover their basic needs. 

  But we don’t even have to wait for the first signs of abuse of the system. As part of the government’s COVID relief spending packages, digital vouchers were loaded to Chinese citizens’ smartphones to encourage them to spend in their local stores. According to Dr. Shirley Yu, visiting fellow at the London School of Economics: “Digital coupons allow the Chinese government to trace the usage of these coupons,” and they “allow the government to know which sector is most helped, who uses it and where money is actually spent”. Of course, if the government has access to data that allows them check if their policies were well transmitted and if the money was spent as they intended, they can also use that data to check and trace any transactions for any other purpose. 

  Xu Yuan, a senior researcher with Peking University’s Digital Finance Research Cen­tre, highlighted the regulatory benefits of making all cash flow in society traceable.

  “In theory, following the launch of the digital yuan, there will be no transaction that regulatory authorities will not be able to see – cash flows will be completely traceable,” Xu said in an interview.

  Of course, this thought is scary enough on its own, but it becomes infinitely more terrifying when those that control the system have a very long track record of abuse and blatant disregard for basic rights and liberties. 

  “It could never happen here”

  That’s probably the most oft-repeated argument in our “civilized” western democracies, right before some terrible governmental abuse of power takes place, or before some new restrictive law or overarching regulation gets passed that limits individual citizens’ rights. A lot of people thought that the PATRIOT Act could never get passed, that banking secrecy would always be respected, and that there’s no way we’d ever see a global economic shutdown by decree. By comparison, a digital fiat currency is not really that far-fetched. In fact, about 20 central banks apart from the PBOC are already actively working on it. As for the possibility of digital currencies and payments systems being enforced, most central bank officials and politicians in the West seem to be quite confident.

  In a recent interview, Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank president Patrick Harker said a real-time digital payments option was “inevitable”, while the chief of the Bank for International Settlements also recognized that central banks will need to issue their own digital currencies soon. During the corona relief debates in the US, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, advocated for the stimulus payments to be distributed thought a digital dollar wallet. The so-called  ‘FedAccount’ program, with the Federal Reserve responsible for overseeing it, would offer free bank accounts to receive money and make payments.

  As for the EU, for many years there has been very strong support for the development of a digital single market. According to a recent European Parliament Briefing, “There is no pan-EU retail payment method to date (other than cash in euros), as there is no European card scheme. This is a source of concern for the European Central Bank (ECB)…. Thus, the ECB is calling for a European payment strategy to change this situation.” This is by all accounts the next step in the centralization and integration plan of the Union, and this couldn’t be a better time for it to materialize. Given the decline in public trust after the EU’s handling of the corona crisis, financial “integration” could be a valuable tool to tie the members tighter together and to force all citizens into a common digital economy, centrally planned and managed.

  A fork in the road

  So, if we accept that digital currencies are inevitable and arguably their emergence has been accelerated by the corona crisis, the real question is who controls them, who issues and distributes them, and who determines their value. We stand at a historic crossroads and the answer to these questions can determine the kind of future we’ll wake up to.

  It can be a very bleak one, if the power remains with governments and centralized institutions. In this scenario, money will retain all the flaws and vulnerabilities of today’s fiat currencies, only its digital nature will amplify them to an unimaginable extent. The privacy violations of today will become simply unstoppable, a mere fact of life, while disastrous monetary policies, like negative rates, so far only cushioned by the individuals’ ability to sidestep them through physical cash, will be forcibly and uniformly transmitted throughout the economy.

  On the other hand, the future could instead be bright, if we take the other path, towards decentralization, free competition and individual financial sovereignty. If we instead choose to break the state monopoly of money and allow private digital currencies to compete, a myriad of different solutions will emerge to serve a myriad of different needs. Savings can be accommodated though physical gold-backed digital currencies, real assets can be tokenized to facilitate and secure physical property sales, specialized cryptocurrencies can offer privacy and untraceable transactions.

  Far from a pipe dream, many solutions like these already exist, while others are in the making. There is therefore a choice about what kind of future we want and it is us, as individuals, that must make it.

  

• A Defiant Mark Zuckerberg Says "We're Not Gonna Change Our Policies" As Advertisers Will Be "Back Soon"
  A Defiant Mark Zuckerberg Says “We’re Not Gonna Change Our Policies” As Advertisers Will Be “Back Soon”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:27

  As the advertiser boycott of Facebook grows, CEO Mark Zuckerberg advised his employees that he intends to defy the crackdown, and expects companies that pulled advertisements off the social media platform to be back “soon enough.”

  As The Information reports, Zuckerberg gave his thoughts on the boycott, which now includes large brands like Starbucks and Coca-Cola, during a video town hall meeting last Friday, according to employees who attended. There, the Facebook CEO said he was reluctant to bow to threats of an advertising boycott, and said the boycott is more of a “reputational and a partner issue” than an economic one.

  During the town hall, Zuckerberg reportedly said that “we don’t set our policies because of revenue pressure. You know, we don’t technically set our policies because of any pressure that people apply to us, and, in fact, usually I tend to think that if someone goes out there and threatens you to do something, that actually kind of puts you in a box, where in some ways, it is even harder to do what they want because now, it looks like you’re capitulating and that sets up bad long-term incentives for others to do that as well. And you know, we’ve had a version of this discussion internally where a lot of our best partners now are basically the ones who are engaging with us and offering their feedback and what they have, and those are the folks who we’ll continue to have the most ongoing dialogue with.”

  “Bottom line is, we’re not gonna change our policies or approach on anything because of a threat to a small percent of our revenue, or to any percent of our revenue.”

  .@alexeheath got a transcript of Zuckerberg’s internal comments about the advertiser boycott. He said a lot, including the below.

  Full transcript here: https://t.co/ndNvmKDJZs pic.twitter.com/ajOrK5ePp3

  — Amir Efrati (@amir) July 1, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  One possible reason for Zuckerberg’s defiance is that as the WSJ pointed out, “even if the companies boycotting Facebook for July abandoned the service in the US forever,  their entire share of Facebook’s global revenue is represented by this tiny blue square.”

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  With that, the feud between advertisers and Facebook comes is at an impasse, with the world’s biggest social network unwilling to make material concession, which now means that either those advertisers who were quick to jump on the virtue signaling bandwagon will have to quietly fold, risking even greater reputational damage, or forego one of the most widely trafficked online media outlets, which would mean even more ad spending for Google.

  

• Central Banks Driving Gold
  Central Banks Driving Gold
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/01/2020 – 19:05

  Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

  Gold as an asset class is confusing to most investors. Even sophisticated investors are accustomed to hearing gold ridiculed as a “shiny rock” and hearing serious gold analysts mocked as “gold bugs,” “gold nuts” or worse.

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  As a gold analyst, I grew used to this a long time ago. But, it’s still disconcerting when one realizes the extent to which gold is simply not taken seriously or is treated as a mere commodity no different than soy beans or wheat.

  The reasons for this disparaging approach to gold are not difficult to discern. Economic elites and academic economists control the central banks. The central banks control what we now consider “money” (dollars, euros, yen and other major currencies).

  Those who control the money supply can indirectly control economies and the destiny of nations simply by deciding when and how much to ease or tighten credit conditions, and when to favor (or disfavor) certain types of lending.

  When you ease credit conditions in a difficult environment, you help favored institutions (mainly banks) to survive. If you tighten credit conditions in a difficult environment, you can more or less guarantee that certain companies, banks or even nations will fail.

  This power is based on money and the money is controlled by central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve System. However, the money-based power depends on a monopoly on money creation.

  As long as investors and institutions are forced into a dollar-based system, then control of the dollar equates to control of those institutions. The minute another form of money competes with the dollar (or euro, etc.) as a store of value and medium of exchange, then the control of the power elites is broken.

  This is why the elites disparage and marginalize gold. It’s easy to show why gold is a better form of money, why it’s more reliable than central bank money for preserving wealth, and why it’s a threat to the money-monopoly that the elites depend upon to maintain power.

  Not only is gold a superior form of money, it’s also not under the control of any central bank or group of individuals. Yes, miners control new output, but annual output is only about 1.8% of all the above-ground gold in the world.

  The value of gold is determined not by new output, but by the above-ground supply, which is 190,000 metric tonnes. Most of that above-ground supply is either owned by central banks and finance ministries (about 34,000 metric tonnes) or is held privately either as jewelry (“wearable wealth”) or bullion (coins and bars).

  The floating supply available for day-to-day trading and investment is only a small fraction of the total supply. Gold is valuable and is a powerful form of money, but it’s not under the control of any single institution or group of institutions.

  Clearly gold is a threat to the central bank money monopoly. Gold cannot be made to disappear (it’s too valuable), and it would be almost impossible to confiscate (despite persistent rumors to that effect).

  If gold is a threat to central bank money and cannot be made to disappear, then it must be discredited. It becomes important for central bankers and academic economists to construct a narrative that’s easily absorbed by everyday investors that says gold is not money.

  The narrative goes like this:

  There’s not enough gold in the world to support trade and commerce.(That’s false: there’s always enough gold, it’s just a question of price. The same amount of gold supports a larger amount of transactions when the price is raised).

  Gold supply cannot expand fast enough to keep up with economic growth.(That’s false: It confuses the official supply with the total supply. Central banks can always expand the official supply by printing money and buying gold from private hands. That expands the money supply and supports economic expansion).

  Gold causes financial panics and crashes.(That’s false: There were panics and crashes during the gold standard and panics and crashes since the gold standard ended. Panics and crashes are not caused or cured by gold. They are caused by a loss of confidence in banks, paper money or the economy. There is no correlation between gold and financial panic).

  Gold caused and prolonged the Great Depression.(That’s false: Even Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke have written that the Great Depression was caused by the Fed. During the Great Depression, base money supply could be 250% of the market value of official gold. Actual money supply never exceeded 100% of the gold value. In other words, the Fed could have more than doubled the money supply even with a gold standard. It failed to do so. That’s a Fed failure not a gold failure).

  You get the point. There’s a clever narrative about why gold is not money. But, the narrative is false. It’s simply the case that everyday citizens believe what the economists say (usually a bad idea) or don’t know enough economic history to refute the economists (and how could you know the history if they stopped teaching it fifty years ago).

  The bottom line is that economists know that gold could be a perfectly usable form of money. The reason they don’t want it is because it dilutes their monopoly power over printed money and therefore reduces their political power over people and nations.

  To marginalize gold, they created a phony narrative about why gold doesn’t work as money. Most people were too easily impressed by the narrative or simply didn’t know enough to challenge it. Therefore the narrative wins even if it is false.

  If gold is viable as a form of money, what does gold’s recent price trading range combined with fundamental factors tell us about its investment prospects?

  Right now, my models are telling me that gold is poised to breakout of its recent narrow trading range.

  As always in technical analysis, the term “breakout” can mean sharply higher or sharply lower prices. Using fundamental analysis, a breakout to sharply higher prices is the expected outcome. This may be the last opportunity to buy gold below $2,000 per ounce.

  For the past three months, gold has been trading in a range between $1,685 per ounce and $1,790 per ounce (it’s trading at about $1,782 today). For most of those three months gold was trading in a fairly narrow band.

  When trading a volatile asset narrows to that extent, it’s a sign that the asset is ready for a material technical breakout. The question is will gold breakout to the upside or downside?

  To answer that question, we can turn to fundamental analysis. (Technical analysis is data rich and is useful for spotting patterns, but it has low predictive analytic power).

  One of the most important fundamental factors forcing gold higher is shown in Chart 1 below. This shows central bank purchases of gold bullion from 2017 to 2020 (each year is shown as a separate line measured in metric tonnes on the left scale).

  Chart 1 – Central Bank purchases of gold
  (in metric tonnes) 2017 – 2020

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  Chart 1 shows significant purchases of gold with 2019 running ahead of 2017 and 2018 at about 500 metric tonnes.

  The chart also shows over 150 metric tonnes of gold purchases through April 2020, which puts 2020 on track to show 450 metric tonnes purchased for the year if present trends hold.

  Of course, the actual result could be higher or lower. Cumulative central bank purchases from January 2017 to April 2020 are approximately 2,050 metric tonnes.

  In fact, central banks went from being net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010, and that net buying position has persisted ever since. The largest buyers are Russia and China, but significant purchases have also been made by Iran, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Vietnam.

  Here’s the bottom line:

  Central banks have a monopoly on central bank money. Gold is the competitor to central bank money and most central banks would prefer to ignore gold. Yet, central banks in the aggregate are net buyers of gold.

  In effect, central banks are signaling through their actions that they are losing confidence in their own money and their money monopoly. They’re getting ready for the day when confidence in central bank money will collapse across the board. In that world, gold will be the only form of money anyone wants.

  Central banks are voting with their printing presses in favor of gold. What are you waiting for?

  Here’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to front run central banks and acquire your own gold at attractive prices before the curtain drops on paper money.

  

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