- EU Slowly Weening Off Russian Crude Gives Moscow Time To Divert Flows To Asia
EU Slowly Weening Off Russian Crude Gives Moscow Time To Divert Flows To Asia
The European Union is taking another step away from Russian oil, but they’re not doing it quick enough to crush Russia’s energy complex as new customers are found in Asia, Russian analysts told Reuters.
On Monday, EU leaders approved the sixth round of sanctions against Russia that reduces Russian oil imports by 90% by year-end but only covers crude and petroleum products by sea, excluding crude routed through pipelines.
EU’s sanctions against Russia are not hard-hitting, which were initially meant by Brussels to penalize Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. Though Western analysts and market watchers say, the latest round of sanctions won’t imminently crush Russia’s energy industry.
“Although, the measures announced by the European Union look threatening, we don’t see a crippling impact on the Russian oil sector – neither imminent nor in six months. Russian oil producers have time to solve logistics problems and change their client base,” Russia-based Sinara Investment Bank analysts said.
Those analysts pointed out that Asian buyers purchase more Russian crude than Europeans. They said flows to the EU declined to 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from March. At the end of 2021, the EU accounted for 60% of Russia’s oil exports, totaling 3 million bpd, adding that supplies the EU isn’t taking anymore are being diverted to China and India.
Moscow shrugged at the EU’s new partial ban on Russian oil imports this week, while Mikhail Ulyanov, Russian Permanent Representative to international organizations in Vienna, tweeted:
“Russia will find other importers. Noteworthy that now she contradicts her own yesterday’s statement. Very quick change of the mindset indicates that the # EU is not in a good shape.”
As she rightly said yesterday, #Russia will find other importers. Noteworthy that now she contradicts her own yesterday’s statement. Very quick change of the mindset indicates that the #EU is not in a good shape. https://t.co/MEtjlphv2U
— Mikhail Ulyanov (@Amb_Ulyanov) May 30, 2022
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The EU is heavily dependent on Russian energy imports, getting around 40% of its natural gas and 25% of oil from Russia. Its ability to ‘cold turkey’ Russian fossil fuels is near impossible or risk collapsing the bloc. Thus the phased reductions rather than an immediate embargo on Russian oil allow Moscow to reroute volumes to new customers.
Moscow-based BCS Global Markets said it would take at least two years for the EU to find alternative sources of oil that would replace the Russian supply.
“We expect large volumes of oil and oil products (from Russia) to continue flowing to Europe – either openly or via grey schemes – in a year or even two,” BCS Global Markets said.
One source at a Russian oil company told Reuters: “We had time to prepare,” referring to the EU’s inevitability of reducing reliance on Russian oil.
Another trading source said volumes to Europe are being rerouted to hungry customers in Asia.
“There won’t be big shocks for Russia,” he said. “India takes it all for now. I’m not sure about China, about how the situation with COVID will develop there.”
Brussels’ harsh words to paralyze the Russian energy complex has been nothing but that and given Moscow ample time to find new buyers abroad, especially ones in Asia.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are being pushed closer together as the emergence of a multi-polar world becomes more evident.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a China-Russia think tank forum that China is willing to work with Russia in pushing forward “real democracy” based on the nations’ own conditions, according to a ministry statement. Wang says international and regional security won’t be met by military groups and cutting off supply chains Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also attended the forum, statement says — Bloomberg
Asian buyers of Russian crude have an increasing appetite as global supplies of crude and crude products are tight. Moscow’s ability to pivot from Europe to Asia is because Brussels’ cunning plan to crush Russia’s energy complex wasn’t implemented fast enough.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/02/2022 – 02:45 - America, Meet Your New Dictator-In-Chief: The President's Secret, Unchecked Powers
America, Meet Your New Dictator-In-Chief: The President’s Secret, Unchecked Powers
Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness have given way to permanent crisis management: to policing the planet and fighting preventative wars of ideological containment, usually on terrain chosen by, and favorable to, our enemies. Limited government and constitutional accountability have been shouldered aside by the kind of imperial presidency our constitutional system was explicitly designed to prevent.”
– David C. Unger, The Emergency State: America’s Pursuit of Absolute Security at All Costs
America, meet your new dictator-in-chief.
As the New York Times reports, “Newly disclosed documents have shed a crack of light on secret executive branch plans for apocalyptic scenarios—like the aftermath of a nuclear attack—when the president may activate wartime powers for national security emergencies.”
The problem, of course, is that we have become a nation in a permanent state of emergency.
Power-hungry and lawless, the government has weaponized one national crisis after another in order to expand its powers and justify all manner of government tyranny in the so-called name of national security.
The seeds of this present madness were sown almost two decades ago when George W. Bush stealthily issued two presidential directives that granted the president the power to unilaterally declare a national emergency, which is loosely defined as “any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions.”
Comprising the country’s Continuity of Government (COG) plan, these directives (National Security Presidential Directive 51 and Homeland Security Presidential Directive 20) provide a skeletal outline of the actions the president will take in the event of a “national emergency.”
Just what sort of actions the president will take once he declares a national emergency can barely be discerned from the barebones directives. However, one thing is clear: in the event of a national emergency, the COG directives give unchecked executive, legislative and judicial power to the president.
The country would then be subjected to martial law by default, and the Constitution and the Bill of Rights would be suspended.
Essentially, the president would become a dictator for life.
It has happened already.
As we have witnessed in recent years, that national emergency can take any form, can be manipulated for any purpose and can be used to justify any end goal—all on the say so of the president.
The emergency powers that we know about which presidents might claim during such states of emergency are vast, ranging from imposing martial law and suspending habeas corpus to shutting down all forms of communications, including implementing an internet kill switch, and restricting travel.
Yet according to documents recently obtained by the Brennan Center, there may be many more secret powers that presidents may institute in times of so-called crisis without oversight from Congress, the courts, or the public.
It doesn’t even matter what the nature of the crisis might be—civil unrest, the national emergencies, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters”—as long as it allows the government to justify all manner of government tyranny in the name of so-called national security.
The war on COVID-19, the war on terror, the war on drugs, the war on illegal immigration: all of these programs started out as responses to pressing national concerns and have since become weapons of compliance and control in the police state’s hands.
Deploying the same strategy it used with 9/11 to acquire greater powers under the USA Patriot Act, the police state—a.k.a. the shadow government, a.k.a. the Deep State—has been planning and preparing for such crises for years now, quietly assembling a wish list of presidential lockdown powers that could be trotted out and approved at a moment’s notice.
Indeed, the Trump Administration even asked Congress to allow it to suspend parts of the Constitution whenever it deems it necessary during the COVID-19 crisis and “other” emergencies. The Department of Justice (DOJ) went so far as to quietly trot out and test a long laundry list of terrifying powers that override the Constitution.
We’re talking about lockdown powers (at both the federal and state level): the ability to suspend the Constitution, indefinitely detain American citizens, bypass the courts, quarantine whole communities or segments of the population, override the First Amendment by outlawing religious gatherings and assemblies of more than a few people, shut down entire industries and manipulate the economy, muzzle dissidents, “stop and seize any plane, train or automobile to stymie the spread of contagious disease,” reshape financial markets, create a digital currency (and thus further restrict the use of cash), determine who should live or die.
These are powers the police state would desperately like to make permanent.
In such a climate, the American president becomes dictator with permanent powers: imperial, unaccountable and unconstitutional.
Bear in mind that the powers the government officially asked Congress to recognize and authorize barely scratch the surface of the far-reaching powers the government has already unilaterally claimed for itself.
Unofficially, the police state with the president at its helm has been riding roughshod over the rule of law for years now without any pretense of being reined in or restricted in its power grabs by Congress, the courts or the citizenry.
Although the Constitution invests the President with very specific, limited powers, in recent years, American presidents have claimed the power to completely and almost unilaterally alter the landscape of this country for good or for ill.
The powers amassed by each successive president through the negligence of Congress and the courts—powers which add up to a toolbox of terror for an imperial ruler—empower whoever occupies the Oval Office to act as a dictator, above the law and beyond any real accountability.
As law professor William P. Marshall explains, “every extraordinary use of power by one President expands the availability of executive branch power for use by future Presidents.”
Moreover, it doesn’t even matter whether other presidents have chosen not to take advantage of any particular power, because “it is a President’s action in using power, rather than forsaking its use, that has the precedential significance.”
In other words, each successive president continues to add to his office’s list of extraordinary orders and directives, expanding the reach and power of the presidency and granting him- or herself near dictatorial powers.
All of the imperial powers amassed by Barack Obama and George W. Bush—to kill American citizens without due process, to detain suspects indefinitely, to strip Americans of their citizenship rights, to carry out mass surveillance on Americans without probable cause, to suspend laws during wartime, to disregard laws with which he might disagree, to conduct secret wars and convene secret courts, to sanction torture, to sidestep the legislatures and courts with executive orders and signing statements, to direct the military to operate beyond the reach of the law, to operate a shadow government, and to act as a dictator and a tyrant, above the law and beyond any real accountability—were inherited by Donald Trump and passed along to Joe Biden.
These presidential powers—acquired through the use of executive orders, decrees, memorandums, proclamations, national security directives and legislative signing statements and which can be activated by any sitting president—enable past, president and future presidents to operate above the law and beyond the reach of the Constitution.
These are the powers that continue to be passed along to each successive heir to the Oval Office, the Constitution be damned.
This is what you might call a stealthy, creeping, silent, slow-motion coup d’état.
From Clinton to Bush, Obama to Trump, and now Biden, it’s as if we’ve been caught in a time loop, forced to re-live the same abuses over and over again: the same assaults on our freedoms, the same disregard for the rule of law, the same subservience to the Deep State, and the same corrupt, self-serving government that exists only to amass power, enrich its shareholders and ensure its continued domination.
We’ve been losing our freedoms so incrementally for so long—sold to us in the name of national security and global peace, maintained by way of martial law disguised as law and order, and enforced by a standing army of militarized police and a political elite determined to maintain their powers at all costs—that it’s hard to pinpoint exactly when it all started going downhill, but “we the people” are paying the price for it now.
We are paying the price every day that we allow the government to continue to wage its war on the American People, a war that is being fought on many fronts: with bullets and tasers, with surveillance cameras and license readers, with intimidation and propaganda, with court rulings and legislation, with the collusion of every bureaucrat who dances to the tune of corporate handouts while on the government’s payroll, and most effectively of all, with the complicity of the American people, who continue to allow themselves to be easily manipulated by their politics, distracted by their pastimes, and acclimated to a world in which government corruption is the norm.
Unless something changes in the way we deal with these ongoing, egregious abuses of power, the predators of the police state will continue to wreak havoc on our freedoms, our communities, and our lives.
If we continue down this road, there can be no surprise about what awaits us at the end.
After all, it is a tale that has been told time and again throughout history about how easy it is for freedom to fall and tyranny to rise, and it often begins with one small, seemingly inconsequential willingness on the part of the people to compromise their principles and undermine the rule of law in exchange for a dubious assurance of safety, prosperity and a life without care.
Unfortunately, the process of unseating a dictator and limiting the powers of the presidency is far from simple but at a minimum, it must start with “we the people.”
For starters, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, we must recalibrate the balance of power.
Start locally—in your own communities, in your schools, at your city council meetings, in newspaper editorials, at protests—by pushing back against laws that are unjust, police departments that overreach, politicians that don’t listen to their constituents, and a system of government that grows more tyrannical by the day.
What we desperately need is a concerted, collective commitment to the Constitution’s principles of limited government, a system of checks and balances, and a recognition that they—the president, Congress, the courts, the military, the police, the technocrats and plutocrats and bureaucrats—answer to and are accountable to “we the people.”
This will mean that Americans will have to stop letting their personal politics and party allegiances blind them to government misconduct and power grabs.
It will mean holding all three branches of government accountable to the Constitution (i.e., vote them out of office if they abuse their powers).
And it will mean calling on Congress to put an end to the use of presidential executive orders, decrees, memorandums, proclamations, national security directives and legislative signing statements as a means of getting around Congress and the courts.
In other words, we’ve got to start making both the president and the police state play by the rules of the Constitution.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/02/2022 – 00:05 - Where Has Monkeypox Spread To?
Where Has Monkeypox Spread To?
The monkeypox virus has sprung up in countries around the world, including in places where the virus does not usually exist.
While there are several disease outbreaks of similar size at the moment, for example hemorrhagic fever in Iraq or the bubonic plague in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, monkeypox has caught the media and the public’s attention, as it seems to be spreading in European and North American countries.
According to BNO News, the UK had the highest numbers of recorded cases in a non-endemic country, with 190 people known to have the disease, followed by 142 in Spain and 119 people in Portugal.
The US reportedly has 18 confirmed cases in California, Florida, Colorado, New York, and Utah…
Unlike Covid-19, which was a new disease in humans, monkeypox has been known to exist for the past 50 years and has made its way out of endemic countries before, albeit in singular cases which subsequently disappeared.
Experts say the situation is unusual now because of how many countries are seeing an outbreak.
Over past years, we have seen an increase in the number of cases in countries where monkeypox is endemic in wildlife.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has seen the highest number of confirmed monkeypox infections, according to the WHO, with 1,284 confirmed cases between 1 January and 8 May 2022, including 58 deaths. The next highest figures were seen in Nigeria between 1 January and 30 April 2022, with 46 cases and no deaths, and in Cameroon with 25 reported cases, including nine deaths.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck notes, one of the reasons that monkeypox is believed to be spreading now is because of the population’s diminishing protection from smallpox vaccines.
Smallpox, which is in the same family as monkeypox, was eradicated in the 1980s through mass vaccination. The lack of immunity in younger generations which have not received the vaccine, and are now growing up, means that it’s increasingly common for people to get monkeypox. However, wider causes are also to blame, according to The Guardian, as deforestation and a rapidly changing climate render new land masses liveable for potentially infectious insects, force animals out of their habitats, and increase the likelihood of animals interacting with people.
Like with Covid-19, increased interconnectedness in the world means that diseases can spread around the globe more easily.
The CDC has now moved its travel advisory from Level 1 to Level 2, which is the “Alert” level, corresponding to “Practice Enhanced Precautions.”
The CDC lists several things that travelers should avoid.
One is “Close contact with sick people, including those with skin lesions or genital lesions.” So, if you are in the habit of touching other people’s lesions while you are traveling, stop it. Of course, this is probably something that you should avoid doing at any time, even when you are not traveling and even when there isn’t a monkeypox outbreak.
A second thing that you should avoid while traveling, according to the CDC, is “Contact with dead or live wild animals such as small mammals including rodents (rats, squirrels) and non-human primates (monkeys, apes).”
The third thing to avoid is “Eating or preparing meat from wild game (bushmeat) or using products derived from wild animals from Africa (creams, lotions, powders)”.
– Forbes
Finally, The World Health Organization says it does not think reported monkeypox case around the world right now will grow into a pandemic, but officials at the United Nations-led group still acknowledge many unknowns in connect with the recent outbreak.
“At the moment, we are not concerned about a global pandemic,” Dr. Rosamund Lewis said Monday during a live Q&A.
“We are concerned that individuals may acquire this infection through high-risk exposure if they don’t have the information they need to protect themselves.”
While anyone can get it, the dominant number of cases so far have been among men who have sex with men, as while it’s not strictly a sexually transmitted disease, it is passed on through close contact with the infectious rash.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 23:45 - Prosecutors Say California Policy Reforms Favor Criminal Suspects Over Victims
Prosecutors Say California Policy Reforms Favor Criminal Suspects Over Victims
Authored by Cynthia Cai via The Epoch Times,
As stories of smash-and-grab robberies, thieves targeting media crews, and fatal shootings have filled headlines in recent months, two criminal prosecutors say some of this criminal activity may be the result of policy changes in California shifting the law from protecting victims to shielding suspects.
Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert (L) and Sacramento Police Department Chief Katherine Lester at the Sacramento County District Attorney’s Office in Sacramento, Calif., on May 3, 2022. (Paul Kitagaki Jr./The Sacramento Bee/TNS)
Over the past decade, California has implemented a number of criminal law reforms to reduce its prison population.
“We’ve got this bad combination of kind of flooding our communities with releases. You’ve got inadequate supervision; you’ve got inadequate plans for them [and] inadequate rehabilitation,” said Anne Marie Schubert, district attorney for Sacramento County.
In May 2011, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that “the medical and mental health care provided by California’s prisons has fallen short of minimum constitutional requirements and has failed to meet prisoners’ basic health needs,” with overcrowding highlighted as the main cause.
A California Department of Corrections officer speaks to inmates at Chino State Prison in Chino, Calif., on Dec. 10, 2010. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Following this ruling, lawmakers and voters passed a series of measures that reduced sentences for certain crimes and diverted offenders from state prisons to county jails.
Starting with Assembly Bill 109, state lawmakers proposed and voters passed a measure that allows non-violent, non-serious, and non-sex offenders to be supervised at the local county level after being released from California state prisons.
The legislation established the California Public Safety Realignment Act of 2011 and aimed to meet the Supreme Court order to reduce the prison population in the state’s 33 prisons (now 34 prisons, according to a February 2022 report).
In 2014, California voters passed Proposition 47, which classifies stealing up to $950 as a misdemeanor crime (up from $400). The law also reclassified some drug possession offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, punishable by up to one year in county jail.
Proposition 47 has become more controversial in recent months, as some residents and officials have attributed the law to the recent rise in theft. California’s string of smash-and-grab retail thefts, which began near the end of 2021, prompted state legislators to introduce measures that would either repeal or amend Proposition 47 in an effort to address the rising crime.
A series of smash-and-grab robberies left stores with boarded-up windows on Nov. 22, 2021. (Lear Zhou/The Epoch Times)
However, lawmakers remain divided on the issue and none of the measures have passed the state legislature.
“You’ve got good legislators, like Assemblymember Jim Cooper, who are trying to pass a bill that would just put a GPS device on a high-risk parolee and our legislature is saying ‘No,’” Schubert said. “That is just illogical and it’s not good for public safety.”
In 2016, voters passed Proposition 57, which allows felons to earn credits through sustained good behavior and by participating in educational or training assignments, among other programs, while in jail to reduce their sentences and expedite their release.
“Many of us in this profession of prosecutors and law enforcement have been kind of ‘sounding the alarm’ before Prop. 57 had passed,” Schubert said.
“We said, ‘If you just start handing out credits to dangerous people or you let them just easily let violent people out of prison early without adequate rehabilitation, then we’re failing.’”
In January, the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) enacted an emergency regulation to create an accelerated credit system. This means that nonviolent offenders can cut two-thirds of the time off their prison sentences, while violent offenders can cut theirs in half.
Prisoners wait in line for breakfast at the California Men’s Colony prison in San Luis Obispo, Calif., on Dec. 19, 2013. (Andrew Burton/Getty Images)
The CDCR cited the need to reduce the spread of COVID-19 within jail facilities as part of its push for reduced sentencing and reduced inmate population. As of May 16, there have been 50 reported deaths among prison staff and 254 deaths among inmates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In April, the CDCR then proposed making the accelerated credit system permanent. Proponents at an April 16 public hearing said the change promotes participation in rehabilitation and educational services.
“If you take away these rehabilitative credits from people who strongly want to change their lives and want to earn these credits, you’ll be doing a disservice to them and to the humanity of who we are as a nation,” Reda Chaple, from the Anti-Recidivism Coalition, said during the hearing.
However, opponents and a handful of district attorneys said the idea would harm public safety if criminals are released before finishing their sentences.
“People that go to prison now in California, it took a lot of effort to get there,” Schubert said.
“Either they are repeat offenders, over and over again, or they committed a very particularly violent crime, such as murder or sexual assault. So the population in our prison system now are the most dangerous of the most dangerous.”
Critics were quick to point to Proposition 57 and the reduced sentencing system following a shooting on April 3 near the state capitol. An unspecified gang dispute led to a shootout in downtown Sacramento, killing six people and injuring 12. An investigation found that some of the suspects were repeat felons who had been released from prison just weeks before the incident.
Police officers work the scene on the corner of 10th and L street of a shooting that occurred in Sacramento, Calif., in the early morning hours on April 3, 2022. (David Odisho/Getty Images)
In addition to criminal laws, California prosecution and sentencing laws have also changed. In 2017, Senate Bill 620 removed a prohibition on firearm charges. Under this law, a court may now strike charges involving gun use in a criminal case “in the interest of justice,” the legislation’s text states.
Daniel Chung, a career prosecutor and former deputy prosecutor for Santa Clara District Attorney Jeff Rosen, said criminal justice reforms have become “imbalanced.”
According to data from the California Department of Justice, prosecution rejections in criminal cases are at their highest rates since the 1980s.
“I think that DAs [district attorneys] these days in certain jurisdictions are trying to become very progressive and less about punishment and more just about services,” Chung said.
“They’re losing their focus on their main responsibility, which is to enforce laws.”
He referred to an attempted murder case that the district attorney had asked him to dismiss. Chung said the case involved a young man who allegedly robbed three stores with a gun and shot at a bystander in the third store. The bystander wasn’t struck and fled the scene.
“DA Rosen wanted me to consider dismissal,” Chung said, suggesting influence by special interest groups.
“That’s how much we’ve gotten soft on crime.”
The Epoch Times reached out to District Attorney Jeff Rosen for comment, but didn’t hear back by press time.
Both Chung and Schubert said the state legislature needs to strengthen criminal laws, allow prosecutors to prosecute criminal offenders, and roll back policy reforms that are leading to early releases.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 23:25 - Watch: Huge Rockslide Crashes Down On Drought-Stricken Lake Powell
Watch: Huge Rockslide Crashes Down On Drought-Stricken Lake Powell
Utahns were out on their motorboats scooting around drought-stricken Lake Powell on Memorial Day when a massive rockfall crashed into the waters, producing a tidal wave for nearby boaters.
Boater Mila Carter captured a video of the dramatic rockslide. She told CNN that she was en route to Antelope Point Marina with her husband when they noticed rocks and sand falling off a cliff near Warm Creek. They stopped to get a better view when suddenly, a huge piece of the cliff plunged into the water.
“We were not expecting anything like that,” Carter said.
Memorial a day boaters captured a massive slab of sandstone crashing into Lake Powell yesterday! 🪨🌊👏
📍: Warm Creek Bay
📸: Mila Carter pic.twitter.com/hlFzgTmIiG— Matthew Johnson (@KSL_Matt) May 31, 2022
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As the cliff fell into the lake, a tide wave began to form, she said, adding, “I feel like the video didn’t capture the wave at the end … it was very impressive.”
The rockslide comes as Lake Powell’s water level is at a historic low amid an unprecedented megadrought beating down on the westernmost states of the US.
The water level at the second-largest reservoir in the country is so low that the federal government took emergency action to delay water releases earlier this month. The reservoir supplies water and power to millions of people in seven states. It stands at 3,531 feet, its lowest level since the reservoir was filled after the government dammed the Colorado River at Glen Canyon more than a half-century ago.
“Rising water levels can saturate rocks along the shoreline and weaken the cementing agents that bond the rock together, while declining water levels can destabilize the slopes by removing some of the rocks’ confining pressure,” CNN noted. Some of these cliffs are being dewatered for the first time in decades; it certainly suggests that more of these rockslides can occur.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 23:05 - Researchers Closer To Creating Blood Test For Suicide Risk
Researchers Closer To Creating Blood Test For Suicide Risk
Authored by Carol Cassis via The Epoch Times,
Researchers have discovered an approach to identify blood biomarkers that could predict the risk of suicide in patients with depression, bringing them one step closer to developing a potential blood test for use on future patients thanks to a study by researchers at the University of California–Irvine (UCI) and Pritzker Research Consortium.
A student crosses the University of California–Irvine campus in Irvine, Calif., on Sept. 25, 2020. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
Suicides have increased to nearly 50,000 deaths yearly in the United States and around 800,000 total globally, according to the team’s research now published in Translational Psychiatry, a peer-reviewed medical journal launched in 2011. The 2022 study further shows clinical depression as the most common diagnosis among suicides.
Even more troubling is that in the United States alone, suicide rates have increased by more than 35 percent over the last 20 years, the study says, making it the tenth leading cause of death.
“Identifying those at the highest risk is a pressing challenge,” researchers note in the literature, adding that “suicide prevention strategies and current medications, although helpful, have not stemmed the increase in self-inflicted deaths.”
As such, researchers launched an investigation to see if a blood biomarker signature for depression could be identified in post-mortem patients who took their own lives, studying both brain and blood cells. Their efforts were successful.
In their research, scientists found that non-preserved blood can be used to discover a gene that, when expressed or activated, makes people at a higher risk of suicide.
Not only can this discovery help providers pinpoint suicidal individuals, the results can also help researchers understand molecular changes in suicide victims, which may be of great use in treating the illness moving forward.
“That is so cool, I didn’t even know you could test for something like that … in someone’s blood,” a source diagnosed with depression, who wished to remain anonymous, told The Epoch Times.
“I wish that test was already available when I was in high school.”
The study uses a novel gene expression approach—a way to look for clusters of genes encoded in our DNA that make people at higher risk for certain conditions—in this case the genetic code specific to putting people at risk of suicidal tendencies.
Research further shows that many individuals do not disclose suicidal intentions despite frequent contact with health care professionals and that an estimated 30 percent of suicides visit a healthcare provider within a month of taking their lives.
As such, once developed this blood test can be administered during such medical visits, potentially helping to identify high-risk individuals before it’s too late.
“These blood biomarkers are an important step toward developing blood tests to identify patients with imminent risk of ending their lives,” said corresponding author Dr. Adolfo Sequeira, associate researcher in the Department of Psychiatry & Human Behavior at the UCI School of Medicine in a statement.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 22:45 - Dominion Voting Machines In 16 States Vulnerable To Hacks: Cyber Agency
Dominion Voting Machines In 16 States Vulnerable To Hacks: Cyber Agency
Dominion Voting Systems machines used in at least 16 states have software weaknesses that make them vulnerable to hacking, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) has warned election officials.
According to AP, which obtained the CISA advisory ahead of an anticipated Friday release, the agency said it has no evidence these vulnerabilities have actually been exploited, but is urging states to implement measures to prevent and detect hacking.
“One of the most serious vulnerabilities could allow malicious code to be spread from the election management system to machines throughout a jurisdiction…The vulnerability could be exploited by someone with physical access or by someone who is able to remotely infect other systems that are connected to the internet if election workers then use USB sticks to bring data from an infected system into the election management system,” AP reports.
The 16 states weren’t identified. According to the company’s website, Dominion products are used in 28 states and nine of the 20 largest counties in the country.
The CISA advisory was prompted by a 25,000-word report by J. Alex Halderman, a University of Michigan computer scientist. He prepared the report as an expert witness in a federal lawsuit filed by voting integrity activists who want Georgia’s machines replaced with paper ballots. The suit was filed in 2017 and is unrelated to any allegation of a specific hack.
Election-hackers could exploit other weaknesses to forge cards technicians use to access—and change—the machines’ software. “Attackers could then mark ballots inconsistently with voters’ intent, alter recorded votes or even identify voters’ secret ballots,” Halderman told AP.
State and federal election officials maintain they have no evidence that Dominion equipment was tampered with to change 2020 election tallies. Dominion is suing Fox News, Rudy Giuliani and others for defamation, over their suggestions the company’s voting machines enabled fraud in that election.
CISA is recommending that, in jurisdictions where the Dominion voting machines are used, officials should implement safeguards such as testing of machines before and after elections, post-election audits, and asking voters to confirm the readable portion of machine-generated paper ballots.
However, even according to the CISA advisory, voter confirmation of the human-readable, computer-generated paper ballot can be skirted by hackers. Automated counting of ballots is done by reading a QR code printed on them, and CISA warned that some of the software vulnerabilities could allow hackers to generate a code that’s “inconsistent with the human-readable portion of the paper ballot.”
Halderman’s report is being kept under seal; U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg says she’s wary the report, if made public, would serve as a user’s manual for bad actors. Halderman’s report has been designated “attorneys’ eyes only,” which means even the parties to the suit aren’t allowed to read it.
Dominion is at the center of the CISA advisory because the Georgia lawsuit that prompted Halderman’s report centers on Dominion machines, which are used for nearly all in-person voting in the state.
“I think it’s more likely than not that serious problems would be found in equipment from other vendors if they were subjected to the same kind of testing,” said Halderman.
Halderman and his students have successfully hacked voting machines in their own tests. In 2017 testimony for the Senate intelligence committee, Halderman, speaking about voting machines in general, said:
“We’ve created attacks that can spread from machine to machine like a computer virus and silently change election outcomes. We studied touch screens and optical scan systems. And in every single case, we found ways for attackers to sabotage machines and to steal votes.”
Halderman recommended universal adoption of optical scan ballots, where voters manually fill in paper ballots that are scanned and counted by a computer—along with the inspection of a sufficient quantity of paper ballots to verify that optical scanners are compiling an accurate tally.
“Paper provides a resilient physical record of the vote that simply can’t be compromised by a cyberattack,” he said.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 22:25 - China Elected To World Health Organisation Executive Board With No Objections
China Elected To World Health Organisation Executive Board With No Objections
Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,
China has been elected to the World Health Organisation’s Executive Board with zero objections from any democratic countries, despite its voluminous attempts to cover up the Coronavirus outbreak and its subsequent brutal lockdowns.
Hillel Neuer of the watchdog group UN Watch noted “this is the regime that crushed” warnings from whistleblowers in late 2019 and early 2020.
He also noted that “not a single democracy spoke out to object.”
Sources:
1. Official WHO list of endorsed candidates including China: https://t.co/00yGIHv0gA
2. Video of this morning’s #WHA75 election of China and others by acclamation. Not a single democracy spoke out to object. pic.twitter.com/xv6OHf2agf
— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) May 27, 2022
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Spectator columnist Ross Clark commented that the WHO is “stuffed with small countries, many with lousy human rights records, which will not dare to challenge China or which will not have the political clout to do so.”
Lets remember that the head of the World Health Organization’s origin investigation into COVID-19 has admitted that China basically ordered his team on what to write in their report and allowed them to mention the lab leak theory, but only on the condition that they didn’t recommend following it up.
In addition, China has refused to cooperate with the renewed WHO probe, declaring that any attempt to look into the lab leak theory goes “against science” and claiming, contrary to U.S. intelligence and the WHO’s own conclusions, that workers in the lab were hospitalised with COVID in the autumn of 2020.
China’s government run Academy of Sciences also shortlisted the Wuhan bio-lab for its ‘Outstanding Science Achievement’ prize for work with coronaviruses.
Talk about rubbing it in.
Jamie Metzl, a leading advisor for the World Health Organisation itself has stated that China engaged in a “massive cover up” of the coronavirus pandemic.
Metzl also pointed out that the World Health Organisation “doesn’t have the mandate to have its own surveillance capabilities,” and was therefore easily batted away by China in the early days of the outbreak when it requested to send responders.
The WHO, which facilitated China’s draconian response to COVID by insisting the western world impose similar lockdowns, is also now urging that gay pride events go ahead despite the clear risk of them being monkeypox super-spreader events, given that the virus is transmitted through close physical contact.
Awarding China a seat on the WHO Executive Board is like if North Korea was put in charge of the UN Conference on Disarmament…oh wait, they really did that too.
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Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 22:05 - 'Minor' $1.9 Million Failed Bond Interest Payment Triggers Russian "Failure-To-Pay" Event
‘Minor’ $1.9 Million Failed Bond Interest Payment Triggers Russian “Failure-To-Pay” Event
In what seems a major action over what many outside observers may see as but a relatively minor technical issue, Russia’s failure to include less than $2 million interest on a late bond payment made at the start of last month has triggered a “failure-to-pay” event, the EMEA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee has ruled. It has brought the country a significant step closer to a dreaded possible first major external debt default in over a century.
Russia failed to add the precisely $1.9 million in additional interest accrued on credit-default swaps. The ruling came after inquiry from overseas holders of the Russian sovereign bond in question, allowing them to seek payout on the default insurance on as much as $3.2 billion of debt (an amount likely determined later at auction).
But Reuters, which was the first to report the ruling by the panel of investors notes that “At the same time, the size of the accrued interest and the fact that the principal payment has already been paid means the ruling won’t spark a broader default on Russia’s bonds.”
The committee indicated it plans to take up the matter further when it meets Monday, June 6. It could have huge future implications for the some $40 billion of the country’s still outstanding international bonds – nearly $2 billion of which is due through the end of the year.
Russia last month rushed to send dollars through investors after the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee logged its first “potential failure-to-pay” event when Moscow first tried to transfer rubles on the note.
Meanwhile, the Reuters report reviews: “There are currently $2.54 billion of net notional credit default swaps outstanding in relation to Russia, including $1.68 billion on the country itself and the remainder on the CDX Emerging Markets Index, according to JPMorgan calculations.”
Just prior to the Feb.24 Ukraine invasion Russia possessed nearly $650 billion of available gold and currency reserves, and currently takes in billions of dollars a week selling oil and gas – which Europe is currently seeking to blunt amid its mulled oil embargo – against the backdrop of of its $40BN sovereign debt estimate.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 21:45 - Gun Control Narrative Omits Cases Where Guns Save Lives: Erich Pratt
Gun Control Narrative Omits Cases Where Guns Save Lives: Erich Pratt
Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly and Steve Lance via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The left’s push for more gun control omit the many cases that go against their narrative, such as instances where guns were used to neutralize shooters, according to Erich Pratt, the senior vice president of Gun Owners of America (GOA), a gun rights advocacy organization that represents more than 2 million Americans.
“The left is all about pushing gun control. It’s absolutely disgusting what they’re doing. They’re pushing gun control, they’re fundraising off of this within hours of the shooting,” Pratt told NTD’s Capitol Report, referring to the May 24 shooting that killed 21 people at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas.
“And really, it’s despicable because it becomes clear they only care about certain deaths,” he said.
Erich Pratt, Senior Vice President for Gun Owners of America, in an interview on NTD’s Capitol Report, on May 28, 2022. (NTD/Screenshot via The Epoch Times) Politicians and activists pushing for gun control neglect to talk about cities that already have the policies they want to implement for the entire nation, he said.
“For example, more than 40 people have been shot and killed in Chicago this month. In the last 30 days, in Baltimore, there had been 20 people shot and killed. But the left is not talking about that. They’re not fundraising off of Chicago or Baltimore because they already have very strict gun control,” Pratt noted.
“Those cities don’t serve their cause—[they] have red-flag, gun confiscation orders, they have universal background registration checks, they have so-called assault weapons bans, they have everything that the left is trying to push on us, and yet they have murders out the wazoo in those two cities that they can’t control it.
“And what that tells us, obviously, is that gun control is not the answer,” he said.
Pratt noted examples of past deadly attacks that did not involve guns, and said that blaming a certain instrument for mass attacks is “short-sighted because no law that bans a certain object is going to stop an evil-determined heart from killing.”
“What’s amazing, and this is one of the things that the anti-gun left does, is they only talk about certain uses of a firearm, which fit their narrative when they’re used in a bad way. But then they won’t talk about firearms when they’re actually used to stop mass shootings,” Pratt said.
Pratt noted how, on May 25, the day after the mass shooting in Uvalde, a woman with a concealed carry permit in West Virginia shot and killed a man who had started firing an AR-style rifle into a crowd of people at a birthday-graduation party.
He accused the left-wing media of generating opposition to people’s Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms “by only selectively talking about certain stories,” and neglecting stories that show how guns may be used to avert more deaths.
“A lot of times where there has been a lot of killing … they are brought to an end by a good guy with a gun,” he said.
Pratt shared the story of Stephen Willeford, who is currently GOA’s spokesperson. As an armed citizen, Willeford in November 2017 stopped a shooter at a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, from potentially killing more people.
“Sadly, everyone at that church in Sutherland Springs did not have a gun on that day except for the bad guy,” Pratt said. “But when Steven Willeford, who lived down the street heard the shooting, he ran out of his house barefoot with his AR-15 [and] called the guy out of the church. That guy came out and Steven mortally wounded him.”
“I mean, the guy got in his car, drove off but eventually took his own life because he was wounded so bad,” he continued. “The FBI cited that case and many other cases as examples where armed citizens use guns to stop attempted mass murders.”
Pratt argued against the concept of gun-free zones, saying they only serve to be places where shooters seek to go. The Uvalde shooting was an example of that, he noted.
“It’s really important to point out that in most cases, these killers will try to seek out a location where it’s a gun-free zone. You know, 81 percent of police agree that teachers and staff should be armed, and with good reason because no school has ever had a mass shooting where there were armed teachers and staff,” he said.
“But tragically, that wasn’t the case at the Texas School. Police were reportedly not quick to rush in. And this Texas school didn’t take part in the program that allows teachers to be armed, so it was a gun-free zone.
“And again, that’s what killers often choose to target. And why would 94 percent of mass shooters target gun-free zones? Because they don’t want bullets being fired back at them.
“That’s why they don’t target police stations or gun shows because killers love gun control. And sadly, that’s what enabled this killer in Texas.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 21:25 - DOJ Charges Ex-OpenSea Exec With NFT Insider Trading
DOJ Charges Ex-OpenSea Exec With NFT Insider Trading
The US Department of Justice has charged a former OpenSea staffer with insider trading in Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) “by using confidential information about what NFTs were going to be featured on OpenSea’s homepage for his personal financial gain.”
Photo : Justin Tallis/ getty Images Nate Chastain, 31, was arrested Wednesday morning on two charges of wire fraud and money laundering, after prosecutors allege he flipped “dozens of NFTs” he chose to feature on the website.
Each charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.
According to the indictment, Chastain sold the NFTs for between 2x and 5x what he initially paid – and sought to cover his tracks by making the purchases via anonymous digital currency wallets and OpenSea user accounts.
“NFTs might be new, but this type of criminal scheme is not,” said U.S. Attorney Damian Williams in a statement. “As alleged, Nathaniel Chastain betrayed OpenSea by using its confidential business information to make money for himself. Today’s charges demonstrate the commitment of this office to stamping out insider trading – whether it occurs on the stock market or the blockchain.”
An OpenSea spokesperson told CoinDesk that they took action to quickly investigate Chastain once his actions were known, and then asked him to resign.
“When we learned of Nate’s behavior, we initiated an investigation and ultimately asked him to leave the company,” they said, adding “His behavior was in violation of our employee policies and in direct conflict with our core values and principles.”
Opensea head of product knew what NFTs were to be featured on the homepage, bought them beforehand- charged with insider trading
1) what took so long? this has been going on in crypto forever
2) do NFT’s have to be a security for it to be insider trading?https://t.co/G9gpsh1P7J— Sheel Mohnot (@pitdesi) June 1, 2022
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An incoming wave of NFT-related actions?
As CoinDesk notes, this may be just the beginning when it comes to prosecutions related to NFTs.
“We know that there is a lot of insider trading in the industry, in NFTs” and in decentralized finance (DeFi)” according to New York City-based attorney Max Dilendorf, who specializes in cryptocurrencies and NFTs, adding that Chastain’s arrest sends a “very, very loud message to the industry.”
“A lot of projects and a lot of market participants are walking down the edge of a knife,” he added. “They get pulled in for an audit, or get subpoenaed by any of the federal regulators. I mean, it’s so easy for regulators to build a money-laundering case, and it’s so hard to defend against one.”
While a coming regulatory crackdown could spook the industry, Moish Peltz, a Los Angeles-based NFT lawyer, told CoinDesk that consumer confidence in NFT marketplaces could improve with stricter regulation.
“If consumers are going to have confidence in the NFT marketplace, it is important for them to know they are not being taken advantage of by insiders using confidential information to their disadvantage,” Peltz said in an email to CoinDesk.
“It may be difficult for consumers to have that confidence given the pseudonymous nature of blockchain transactions. The U.S. government has proven again that they are extremely sophisticated in terms of building legal cases surrounding blockchain transactions,” Peltz added. -CoinDesk
According to Peltz, ” the legal guardrails applicable to the NFT marketplace are still emerging, and [the Chastain case] appears to be an important test case where the government is sending a message to insiders who may seek to misuse confidential information. It is now clear that the U.S. government is not ignoring NFT marketplaces. Insiders should act accordingly.“
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 21:05 - "The Deep State Is In A 'Do-Or-Die' Moment" – Alex Newman Warns Globalists 'Need To Terrify Everyone'
“The Deep State Is In A ‘Do-Or-Die’ Moment” – Alex Newman Warns Globalists ‘Need To Terrify Everyone’
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Author of the popular book “Deep State” and award-winning journalist Alex Newman says Deep State globalists are afraid the world is waking up to the tyranny they are trying to impose on every country on earth including America.
Things are not going as smoothly into their so-called reset as they had envisioned.
Newman explains, “The Deep State is in a ‘do or die’ moment right now…”
“They, the elites or predator class, recognize that they are now locked into this. If they try to retreat, there is no retreat. People are waking up at such a rapid rate that they are in a moment where they are going to have to go for broke and try to impose the whole agenda and damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead or they are going to be in big trouble. They are going to be prosecuted. Right this moment, there are conversations in state attorney generals’ offices all across the country, and this is a problem. People are demanding prosecution..
Right now, the elites, or predator class, realize if they don’t move forward very quickly, they are going to lose everything. They could possibly end up facing true accountability. I think we are in a very dangerous situation now. When people get into a position like that, they don’t have a whole lot of options. Either they cancel the election or they cheat like crazy or they just collapse everything. The way things are going right now with inflation out of control, the food crisis and famine just around the corner, of course, that they engineered, and the monkey pox and bird flu, they have all there crises lined up…
You realize they have a lot of options still to play. I suspect there will be some very interesting developments between now and the mid-term elections. If we had honest elections, they would be totally creamed. They would be toast, and they know that.”
Newman thinks the next move by the Deep State may be a combination of crises that could include the collapse of the buying power of the U.S. dollar and a food crisis that is already a lock in the not-so-distant future. Newman warns,
“What’s going on in Russia and Ukraine, we cannot count out. There is a very real prospect of that expanding…
Desperate people do desperate things. This is just like with an animal that has been backed into a corner. When you get an animal in that situation, they are really left with few options other than attack and do something dangerous, and I think that is where we are at. They recognize that they need crises to advance their agenda. They need to terrify the population…
…and it has to be done in a way that their finger prints are not on this, and instead of people turning on each other, they will start looking for them.”
Newman says,
“The country can be turned around and it needs to be turned around, but it’s going to take work . . . and maybe intervention by the Good Lord.”
Newman closes by saying, “There is no silver bullet.”
There is much more in the 49 min. video interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the recent book “Deep State.”
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Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 20:45 - US Marines Mocked Over Pride Month Pageantry
US Marines Mocked Over Pride Month Pageantry
With pride month upon us, it’s not uncommon to see companies signaling virtue with rainbow everything in order to let the world know they support the LGBTQ∞ community, lest they be considered un-woke.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 31, 2022
Now, the US Marine Corps has joined the fray, tweeting a photo of a marine helmet with bullets painted in rainbow colors on the strap.
Throughout June, the USMC takes #Pride in recognizing and honoring the contributions of our LGBTQ service members. We remain committed to fostering an environment free from discrimination, and defend the values of treating all equally, with dignity and respect.#PrideMonth #USMC pic.twitter.com/MOyvFmyJiB
— U.S. Marines (@USMC) June 1, 2022
Many took offense at the meme – suggesting the Marines are being divisive.
“Seriously? How does fixating on differences foster cohesion and unity?” tweeted Florida Governor Ron Desantis’ press secretary Christina Pushaw.
Seriously? How does fixating on differences foster cohesion and unity?
— Christina Pushaw 🐊 🇺🇸 (@ChristinaPushaw) June 1, 2022
Others pointed out that the marines ‘did the meme’:
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Y’all saw this meme and thought “good idea!” pic.twitter.com/FZfXSVMyxk
— Thomas the Dank Engine (@ComradeJumico) June 1, 2022
Others followed suit with similar criticism:
China is laughing at us.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) June 1, 2022
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— The Right To Bear Memes (@grandoldmemes) June 1, 2022
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Do we only shoot gay bullets now?
— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) June 1, 2022
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Fuck out of here with this. We don’t take political sides, and we don’t engage in social commentary. We kill the enemy… period.
— Jason Buttrill (@JasonButtrill) June 1, 2022
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This is not a good look Shane. It makes us look weak . Ridiculous.
— Code of Vets ™ (@codeofvets) June 1, 2022
What say you?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 20:25 - Biden's 'Salami-Slicing' On Taiwan: We Aren't Changing Policy Except That We Are Changing It
Biden’s ‘Salami-Slicing’ On Taiwan: We Aren’t Changing Policy Except That We Are Changing It
Authored by Patrick Lawrence via Consortium News,
Watching President Joe Biden’s stunningly clumsy performance in Tokyo last week, during which he committed the U.S. to defending Taiwan militarily, my mind went to the old adage, “All politics is local.” I am sure it is, but we are called upon to extend the thought: “All foreign policy is local” is our late-imperial reality.
The rest of the world is mere proscenium for our purported leaders, to put this point another way. No one with a hand in American foreign policy, so far as I can make out, is the slightest bit interested in the one thing, above all others, that the 21st century requires of competent statecraft. This is the desire and ability to understand the perspectives of others.
Have you ever heard anyone in the Washington policy cliques state, or even wonder, what China’s legitimate interests are in East Asia, first of all on the question of sovereignty over Taiwan? I haven’t either. You can run a foreign policy in this manner, but any successes it achieves will be sheer happenstance. In the Taiwan case, these people can’t even count on a fluke.
White House image What we saw during Biden’s appearance in Tokyo was the latest installment of a Taiwan policy, and by extension a trans–Pacific policy, fashioned to satisfy various constituencies at home. The voiceless American public does not count among them. Like all policies of this kind, this one is poorly conceived, miscalculated, out of touch — in other words, doomed to failure as our new century unfolds.
“You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?” This was the question a broadcast correspondent posed as Biden stood with the prime ministers of Japan, India, and Australia at the conclusion of a security summit last Monday.
“Yes,” our addled president replied without elaboration.
“You are?” the correspondent persisted.
“That’s the commitment we made,” Biden said, again with no further comment.
Parse the exchange carefully. The president of the United States told Taiwan, China and the rest of Asia that America would commit troops and matériel — its own, not the weaponry it sells Taiwan in quantity — to a defense of the island in the event of a conflict with the People’s Republic. Given the reference to Ukraine, there is simply no other way to interpret Biden’s remarks.
Provocative Departure
This was a significant, openly provocative departure from the longstanding policy known as “strategic ambiguity,” a flimsy (as it has always seemed) concept whereby Washington does not say what it will do should China attempt to reassert sovereignty over its breakaway province.
Instantly, Biden’s many minders, who serve as nursing-home attendants more than department secretaries and advisers in these cases, began explaining to a very disturbed world that what their president said was not what their president said. “As the president said, our policy has not changed,” the White House explained in a rushed statement to the press.
A day later, even Biden was mouthing the approved language: “The policy has not changed at all,” saith Joe last Tuesday and on several occasions since. Come again, please? Yes, I announced a dramatic change in our Taiwan policy, but no, we’re not changing our Taiwan policy?
We cannot mark down what happened in the Japanese capital a week ago to the grim reality that our 46th president suffers a creeping senility. He does, but this will not do as an explanation of what amounts to a bad-cop, good-cop routine wherein the bad cop suddenly becomes one of the good cops after being bad.
The government-supervised New York Times went for the “gaffe-prone pol” theory, and who is not familiar with the… let us say simplicity of our president’s intellect? But neither will Biden’s evident dimness get us to clarity.
I see design in these weird events.
What is it, then, we appear to have witnessed? Given Taiwan is the eastern front in our new, two-front Cold War — the one we’re nicely on the way to losing — we had better understand what we are in for.
Here I will speculate briefly.
The journalist posing the fateful question was Nancy Cordes, a longtime television correspondent who now covers the White House for CBS News. Given CBS’s long, many-decades-long record of collaborating with the national-security state, could her exchange with Biden have been prearranged to allow the response she precipitated?
We will never have an answer to this, but I must say I found the staginess of the occasion odd from the first, and I will take this thought no further.
Third Time
As many news reports noted last week, the Tokyo presser was the third time Biden, as president, has sailed the American ship of state near these rocks. Last summer he equated Taiwan with Japan and South Korea, two nations with which the U.S. has security alliances providing for mutual defense. Taiwan is not a nation, however many times The New York Times errs in calling it one, and has no such treaty with Washington.
A couple of months later a CNN correspondent asked Biden if the U.S. is committed to defending Taiwan against an attack from the mainland. “Yes, we have a commitment to do that,” he replied.
I must remind readers here that, in consequence to Biden’s diminished mental capacities, it has been a matter of record since his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva last year that the time he spends in front of journalists is strictly controlled, the journalists are carefully chosen and what will be said during their exchanges is vetted beforehand. You know, Soviet-style.
Some context is in order here.
It has been clear since the Biden regime’s earliest months that it has no idea how to address China or what a sound China policy would look like. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s calamitous encounter with Chinese counterparts in Alaska in March 2021 was the first indication of this, though hardly the last.
By default, I would say, Biden and his national security people inherited the policy shaped by Mike Pompeo because they didn’t know what else to do. Remember the McCarthyesque speech the Trump administration’s secretary of state gave at the Nixon Library two summers ago? Fifty years of engagement with China have failed, so it is time to confront the evil Chinese Communist Party, good must destroy evil, etc.?
That one.
One prominent feature of the Pompeo policy was its vigorous determination to refute the One China policy, which acknowledges Taiwan as part of China, and scrub strategic ambiguity in favor of “strategic clarity,” as in, We’re on for a war, body bags and all, and will wage it to defend Taiwan when the time comes.
The Biden regime has done nothing more than slow down this policy while altering it in style and tone. Having nothing to say for itself, it has no choice but to mollify the warmongering hawks whose position Pompeo articulated. These factions extend from Capitol Hill to the Pentagon to the defense-industry lobbies to the think tanks, some conservative, others “liberal.”
What happened in Tokyo last week is called “salami-slicing,” incremental moves such that a major policy shift is executed little by little by little. It follows naturally that Washington commonly accuses China of salami-slicing, given it is exactly what the U.S. is doing in the Taiwan case. Hence the contradictions noted above: We aren’t changing policy except that we are changing it.
July 16, 2020: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement on maritime claims in the South China Sea. (U.S. State Department, Flickr) It was obvious within days of the Tokyo press conference that the discourse on Taiwan has taken a decisive turn of the kind Biden appears to have intended to prompt. We are witnessing the gradual dismantling of strategic ambiguity in favor of strategic clarity just as the dangerously belligerent Pompeo urged.
One day after Biden’s remarks The New York Times quoted none other than Harry Harris urging this shift. Harris, some readers may recall, was commander of the Pacific fleet during the Obama years and liked nothing better than grandstanding on the decks of his aircraft carriers while huffing and puffing about America’s naval superiority in the Pacific.
China, the retired admiral asserted, “isn’t holding back its preparations for whatever it decides it wants to do simply because we’re ambiguous about our position.” This appeared in a piece explaining how the Biden regime is all of a sudden “trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation.”
Nice. Nuanced. This is what I call subtle statecraft, diplomacy at its most evolved. Let’s come as close as we can to starting a conflict with China while avoiding the appearance of starting one.
A day later Bret Stephens, the Times columnist who is admittedly not to be taken seriously, urged “a more open military relationship with Taiwan.” Biden needs to forget his FDR fantasies, our Bret thinks, and “find his inner Truman,” referencing the first Cold War’s premier Cold Warrior.
We read regularly now of the policy cliques war-gaming a military conflict with China over the Taiwan question. NBC recently broadcast “War Games: The Battle for Taiwan,” a 27–minute Meet the Press segment. Such a program, lest readers lose track of the time, would have been unthinkable even a few years ago. But a salami slice at a time, Washington and its clerks in the media prepare us for Cold War II’s second front.
NBC, I remind readers, has a history as long as CBS’s of collaborating with the State and Defense departments — very, very directly — in the production of broadcast propaganda. There is one great, big saving grace in all of this. At the horizon, it is nonsense — America preening before its mirrors of self-regard.
Anyone with a head on his or her shoulders — and I have it from confidential sources there are a few such people in Washington — knows that a hot war with China over Taiwan is utterly out of the question. There is absolutely no way the U.S. could win one against the people’s Liberation Army, the P.L.A. Navy and the P.L.A. Air Force.
The Times had the good sense to run an opinion piece in Sunday’s editions precisely to this effect. “Defending Taiwan Would Be a Mistake,” is the headline and a good summary of Oriana Skylar Mastro’s argument. She writes:
“Simply put, the United States is outgunned. At the very least a confrontation with China would be an enormous drain on the U.S. military without any assured outcome that America could repel all of China’s forces.”
Mastro is a fellow in Chinese security studies at Stanford and a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. This is what we’re seeing these days on the Taiwan question: What grounded thinking there is to be found is as often as not coming from conservatives as against the liberal “antiwar” warmongers who crowd our national discourse.
The Skylar Mastro column was an implicit defense of strategic ambiguity, which is the question on which the policy debate now turns. I have always considered it a weak policy, a sophisticated name for either indecision and paralysis or for an unstated knowledge that the U.S. cannot win this one and can do no more than put off the inevitable on the Taiwan issue. The island is Chinese real estate and sooner or later this will be the reality.
But ambiguity is better than clarity in the way the hawks use the term.
China reacted predictably to the Biden statements. “On issues that bear on China’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and other core interests,” Wang Wenbin, a foreign ministry spokesman, said, “no one shall expect China to make any compromise or trade-offs.”
There is no salami-slicing here. Anyone who knows Chinese history understands that questions of territorial integrity and sovereignty are the hottest buttons on Beijing’s console. But Wang’s statement — the statement of a spokesman, not a senior official — seemed to me notably low-key. And since this official reaction, Beijing appears to have let the incident fade.
It seems to me the Chinese understand: Biden’s Taiwan policy is all posture in the service of several purposes. It mollifies the hawkish factions mentioned above and will keep the weapons manufacturers in contracts more or less indefinitely. As previously argued in this space, Washington doesn’t need a hot war across the Pacific: An open-ended cold one will do.
A third purpose is to me the most interesting. Escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait, given there is no real intention of engaging the Chinese militarily, is the doing of a nervous, declining power profoundly unsure of itself in a changing world order it can do nothing to stop. In this the preening and pretending is all about reassuring you and me that our leaders are not completely, abjectly blowing the 21st century.
An astute Financial Times writer published a piece over the weekend noting that Biden’s performance — good word for it — in Tokyo coincided with the opening of Top Gun: Maverick, a sequel to the triumphalist Tom Cruise film of 1986. “Curiously, James Crabtree writes, ‘it turns out that Top Gun: Maverick is actually a rather anxious kind of blockbuster, filled with doubts about the durability of U.S. power, and functioning in many ways as an elegy for relative American decline.’”
The head on Crabtree’s piece is “Still Top Gun? What Tom Cruise’s New Movie Tells Us about American Power.” It tells us a lot. It tells us it is starting to come down to theater now, spectacle without substance.
What we are going to see in Taiwan is likely to prove exactly what we already see in Ukraine. We will salami-slice increasing support for the independence-minded government in Taipei, arm the island to its very teeth, provoke China as we have Russia, and hope the mess escalates.
Then we will watch, as true heroes do.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 20:05 - Auto-Armageddon: May Sales Data Shows Dramatic Slowdown In US New Car Sales
Auto-Armageddon: May Sales Data Shows Dramatic Slowdown In US New Car Sales
Auto sales numbers for May are starting to trickle in and they’re ugly…
The lack of stimmy money and unemployment check bonuses, combined with the fact that rates are rising and spending is slowing, made for a tumultuous May report for some of the most well known legacy auto manufacturers.
Here’s a look at four of the first names to hit the tape this week, with most other major auto manufacturers set to release data within the next day or so.
*HONDA MAY U.S. AUTO SALES -57.3%
*TOYOTA US MAY SALES 175,990, -27.3% Y/Y
*MAZDA N. AMERICA MAY SALES DOWN 63.7%
*NISSAN APRIL GLOBAL SALES -29.1%
It’s going to be tough to keep the melt-up in auto prices going with sales slowing down so much. Over the last year, both new and used car prices have soared amidst growing demand and a gummed up supply chain that keep inventory sparse.
Inventory looks like it could be less of an issue over the next few months, based on May’s numbers. Remember, we wrote in the beginning of May that used car prices were crashing at a near record pace.
As we noted then, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a wholesale tracker of used car prices, printed the most significant monthly decline in terms of rate of change averaged out over three months in April at 6.4%. It didn’t beat the April 2020 print of -11.2% nor December 2008 of -11.5%, but those two periods were in full-blown financial crises.
The Fed routinely says monetary tightening will create a soft-landing, similar to the mid-90s. However, tightening financial conditions could only spark trouble for an economy based 70% on consumption and driven by access to cheap credit. The cooling in the used car market could suggest a broader economic slowdown is ahead.
We also noted in May the used car market year-over-year growth rates versus used car auto loan rates. A jump in rates has dampened upward price pressure as fewer buyers can afford cars. This is likely part of what has contributed to May’s terrible retail sales numbers.
Additionally, according to a report out Wednesday by The Verge, GM is also slashing prices on their 2023 Chevy Bolt EV and EUV.
Hilariously, GM’s PR department is definitely doing their job well, as they put the “spin” on the lowered pricing as a measure being taken “amid high demand”. GM says it wants to send the message that “affordability has always been a priority for these vehicles”, the Verge wrote.
A GM spokesperson said: “This change reflects our ongoing desire to make sure Bolt EV/EUV are competitive in the marketplace.”
Because we all know that high demand drives prices…lower…right?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 19:45 - "Catastrophic": Five Dead Including Shooter At Tulsa Medical Building
“Catastrophic”: Five Dead Including Shooter At Tulsa Medical Building
Update (2030ET): Authorities in Tusla, Oklahoma, confirm five dead, including the shooter. Police said the man used a rifle and a handgun during the shooting on the second floor of the Natalie Medical Building.
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Update (1930ET): Authorities in Tusla, Oklahoma, confirm four dead, including the shooter, after a man armed with a rifle entered an outpatient surgery center at Saint Francis Hospital, according to Police Capt. Richard Meulenberg, who described the shooting as a “catastrophic scene.” The shooter reportedly committed suicide.
ACTIVE SHOOTER UPDATE: We can confirm 4 people are deceased, including the shooter, in the active shooting situation at St. Francis hospital campus.
Officers are still clearing the building. More info to follow.— Tulsa Police (@TulsaPolice) June 1, 2022
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According to Tulsa City Councilor Jayme Fowler, the shooter was looking for a specific physician.
On CNN Tulsa City Councilor Jayme Fowler said: From what I understand the shooter had a problem with a specific physician and he couldn’t find the physician and that’s when the shooting started.
— Reese Gorman (@reesejgorman) June 1, 2022
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According to the White House, President Biden has been briefed on the shooting, and “The White House is closely monitoring the situation and has reached out to state and local officials to offer support.”
Authorities locked down the hospital campus Wednesday afternoon as the situation unfolded at the Natalie Medical Building.
According to Bloomberg, aerial helicopter footage appeared to show first responders wheeling someone away from the building on a stretcher, while dozens of police cars could be seen outside.
Photo: Ian Maule https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
More on the situation from Tusla Police.
ACTIVE SHOOTER SITUATION UPDATE: See our Facebook for more info: pic.twitter.com/dla5NWukWM
— Tulsa Police (@TulsaPolice) June 1, 2022
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There were multiple active shooter situations across the country today: a Tulsa hospital building, a Los Angeles high school and in Pennsylvania. What is going on?
— Louis Casiano (@LouisCasiano) June 1, 2022
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* * *
Police in Tulsa, Oklahoma, responded to an active shooter situation at a medical building on Wednesday evening, according to local news KTUL.
@TulsaPolice has responded to an active shooter incident near 61st & Yale. Please stay away from the area and yield to all emergency vehicles as we deal with this response. We will update the media as soon as we are able to gather details.
— Tulsa Police Department Chief Franklin (@TPD_Franklin) June 1, 2022
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Tulsa Police Department said there were multiple injuries, and the suspect had been shot. It was reported the suspect was armed with a rifle.
“A suspect has been shot,” Sgt. Richard Meulenberg told reporters at the scene.
BREAKING NEWS: This was the initial information provided to us by police about an active shooter situation at a medical building at 61st and Yale. pic.twitter.com/ROigyZTa8z
— NewsChannel 8 | KTUL (@KTULNews) June 1, 2022
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Police said there is no longer an active shooter situation at the Natalie Medical Building at Saint Francis Hospital on Yale Ave. They’re currently clearing the building floor by floor and described the incident area inside as “catastrophic.”
Darin Glodo with the Tulsa Police told CNN there were injuries, but just how many are unknown.
Watch ABC News’ live feed here:
*This is a developing story
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 19:19 - New York Governor To Raise Age Limit For Semi-Automatic Rifle Purchases, Ban Body Armor
New York Governor To Raise Age Limit For Semi-Automatic Rifle Purchases, Ban Body Armor
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and top state lawmakers announced ten bills that have been introduced in both the Assembly and Senate that would tighten New York’s gun laws following the mass shootings in Buffalo and Texas.
The bills would raise the minimum age to purchase a semiautomatic rifle to 21 years old from 18, prohibit the purchase of body armor for anyone not eligible (NY tried to ban it last year), require a license to buy a semiautomatic rifle, eliminate grandfathering of large-capacity ammunition feeding devices (otherwise known as extended magazines), strengthen the Red Flag law, and require new pistols to include microstamping technology for tracing.
Gov. Hochul, Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, and Speaker Carl Heastie announced the introduction of the ten new bills on Tuesday. The bills are expected to gain traction as the public outcry for lawmakers to do something increases after the recent mass shootings.
The legislative package includes:
A.1023-A (Paulin)/S.4970-A (Kavanagh)
Requires all state and local law enforcement agencies to report seized or recovered guns to the criminal gun clearinghouse; participate in ATFs collective data sharing program; test-fire seized or recovered guns for national integrated Ballistic Information Network; and, enter the make, model, caliber, and serial number of the gun into the national crime information center. Also requires gun dealers to implement a security plan for securing firearms, rifles and shotguns; prohibit persons under eighteen and not accompanied by a parent from the certain locations of a gun dealer’s premises; provide training to all employees on the conduct of firearm, rifle, and shotgun transfers, including identification of and response to illegal purchases; adhere to record keeping requirements; and require the State police to conduct inspections of gun dealers every three years.
A.6716-A (Wallace)/S89-B (Kaminsky):
Creates the crimes of making a threat of mass harm and aggravated making a threat of mass harm.
A.7926-A (Rosenthal, L)/S.4116-A (Hoylman):
Requires DCJS to certify or decline to certify that microstamping-enabled pistols are technologically viable and if certified as viable, to establish programs and processes for the implementation of such technology; and, establishes the crime of the unlawful sale of a non-microstamping-enabled firearm
A7865-A (Fahy)/ S.4511-A (Kaplan):
Requires social media networks in New York to provide a clear and concise policy regarding how they would respond to incidents of hateful conduct on their platform and maintain easily accessible mechanisms for reporting hateful conduct on those platforms
A.10428-A (People-Stokes)/S.9229-A (Hoylman):
Eliminates the grandfathering of large capacity ammunition feeding devices that were lawfully possessed prior to the enactment of the Safe Act or manufactured prior to 1994.
A. 10497 (Jacobson)/S.9407-B (Kavanagh):
Makes unlawful the purchase and sale of body vests for anyone who is not engaged in an eligible profession. Eligible professions include law enforcement officers and other professions designated by the Department of State in consultation with other agencies. Also requires that any sale of a body vest be done in person.
A.10501 (Meeks)/S. 9465 (Bailey)
Creates a new Task Force on Social Media and Violent Extremism in the Attorney General’s office to study and investigate the role of social media companies in promoting and facilitating violent extremism and domestic terrorism online.
A. 10502 (Cahill)/S. 9113-A (Skoufis):
Expands who may file an Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) petition to include health care practitioners who have examined the individual within the last six months; requires police and district attorneys to file ERPO petitions upon credible information that an individual is likely to engage in conduct that would result in serious harm to himself, herself or others; requires the State Police and the Municipal Police Training Council to create and disseminate policies and procedures to identify when an ERPO petition may be warranted; amends the firearm licensing statute to make it clear that when an individual has been reported by a mental health practitioner and a county mental health commissioner has concurred with such practitioner that the individual is likely to engage in conduct that would result in serious harm to themself or others, such report is considered in determining whether or not to issue a firearm license to the individual; and, expands the mental health practitioners who can make such reports.
A10503 (Jackson)/S. 9458 (Thomas):
Requires that an individual obtain a license prior purchasing a semiautomatic rifle. This is prospective and applies to purchases made on and after the effective date.
A. 10504 (Burgos)/S. 9456 (Sepulveda)
Expands the definition of a “firearm” to include any weapon not defined in the Penal Law that is designed or may readily be converted to expel a projectile by action of an explosive. This is intended to capture firearms that have been modified to be shot from an arm brace, which are evading our current definitions of firearms and rifles.
“Within the last month, two horrific mass shootings in Buffalo and Texas have rattled this nation to our core and shed a new light on the urgent need for action to prevent future tragedies,” the governor said.
“New York already has some of the toughest gun laws in the country but clearly we need to make them even stronger. New Yorkers deserve to feel safe in schools, in grocery stores, in movie theaters, in shopping malls, and on our streets — and we must do everything in our power to protect them. Working closely with Majority Leader Stewart-Cousins, Speaker Heastie, and all of our partners in the legislature, we will strengthen our gun laws, help keep New Yorkers safe, give law enforcement the tools they need to prevent crime, and stop the spread of dangerous weapons. As New York once again leads, we continue to urge the federal government to seize this opportunity and pass meaningful national gun violence prevention laws,” the governor continued.
“Just 10 days separated the mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde that took the lives of 31 people. Nowhere else in the world is this happening. We are in desperate need of a conversation about guns, but we are also in desperate need of action.” Speaker Carl Heastie said.
In a statement, chair of the New York State Republican Committee Nick Langworthy responded to the governor’s push for even stricter gun laws, pointing out it doesn’t even address America’s mental health crisis:
“This package of bills does nothing to actually address the underlying mental health crisis at the center of the problem or invests in securing our schools. If Hochul and legislative leaders cared about shooting victims, they would vote today to repeal their disastrous bail laws that has turned our streets over to violent criminals.”
New Yorkers who already own a semiautomatic rifle or body armor will be grandfathered in if the bills are passed. Other states would likely follow New York’s move. Also, Democrats in Washington, D.C., are pushing bills to raise age limits to buy guns and ban high-capacity magazines.
Podcaster Joe Rogan warned last week that Democrats are coming for your guns and argued that criminals would be the only ones left with firearms.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 19:05 - AI Expert Says Parents Will Choose "Digital Babies" In The Metaverse Over Real Ones Within 50 Years
AI Expert Says Parents Will Choose “Digital Babies” In The Metaverse Over Real Ones Within 50 Years
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
An expert on artificial intelligence says that within 50 years, parents will opt to have “digital offspring” that only exist in the metaverse due to concerns over the environment and overpopulation.
The prediction was made by Catriona Campbell, who is described as “one of the UK’s leading authorities on artificial intelligence.”
According to Campbell, parents will decide to have digital babies, an updated version of Japanese Tamagotchi digital pet toys, for the same reasons they are already choosing not to have real babies, namely, “concerns about the environment, overpopulation, the rising cost of bringing up a child.”
“Campbell predicts they will be commonplace and embraced by society within half a century,” reports left-wing newspaper the Guardian.
The AI expert says the cyberspace babies will eventually be indistinguishable from the real thing and that if parents get bored of them, they can just cancel them like they would a monthly Netflix subscription.
“Campbell says virtual children will look like you, and you will be able to play with and cuddle them. They will be capable of simulated emotional responses as well as speech, which will range from “googoo gaga” to backchat, as they grow older,” reports the newspaper.
#GreatReset: According to an expert on artificial intelligence, would-be parents will soon be able to opt for cheap and cuddle-able digital offspring. https://t.co/WYBjRnkkoU
— Geopolitics & Empire (@Geopolitics_Emp) May 31, 2022
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The article also says concerns that the digital babies would just be ‘creepy dystopian dolls’ that can be turned on and off are “old fashioned.”
“Think of the advantages: minimal cost and environmental impact. And less worry,” it adds.
As ever, this is just more anti-natal propaganda, predominantly targeting white western countries, which are already seeing birth rates rapidly decline.
There is an entire cottage industry of social engineering based on convincing westerners not to have children.
As we previously highlighted, in 2020, CNN marked Valentines Day weekend by promoting “the benefits of being single,” even as birth rates across America and Europe continue to plunge.
America’s fertility rate currently stands at 1.8 births per woman.
From 2007 to 2011 the fertility rate in the U.S. declined 9% in the space of just 4 years.
In 2016, the U.S. fertility rate fell to 59.8 births per 1,000 women, the lowest since records began.
Fears about “overpopulation” are also a contrived myth given that plummeting population levels are far more likely to be a bigger problem in 50 years time.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 18:45 - US Nat Gas Prices Have Exploded Thanks To Soaring LNG Exports To Europe
US Nat Gas Prices Have Exploded Thanks To Soaring LNG Exports To Europe
Regular readers will be aware of our view regarding the soaring US nat gas price, which we have repeatedly said is to a large extent a function of US nat gas exports to Europe, meant to ease Europe’s historic natgas shortage which is the direct result of the Ukraine war (as Putin turns the screws on European nat gas exports) and Europe’s disastrous “green” policies which virtually assured that the continent would have a historic energy crisis. Indeed, as we noted a few days ago in “US NatGas Prices Top $9, Hit 2008 Highs As EU ‘Convergence’ Accelerates“, when addressing a recent Pew Poll which found that “61% of Americans would favor exporting large amounts of natural gas to Europe”, we doubt 61% would be supportive of such policies if they knew they are behind the historic spike in domestic nat gas prices.
Now ask them again after explaining this would mean a convergence in prices, meaning a surge in the US nat gas price, like right now https://t.co/hy9sZ9JOKP
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2022
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Today, none other than Reuters’ senior energy analyst John Kemp confirms that behind the surge in US nat gas prices are LNG exports to Europe, writing that “US natural gas production will have to accelerate significantly if the country is to keep growing record export volumes without creating shortages for consumers at home.” And while we may avoid shortages, we certainly will have much, much higher prices to look forward to before the European nat gas crisis “converges” with the US.
According to Kemp, gas exports in the form of LNG were up by 674 billion cubic feet or 87% in the first three months of 2022 compared with the same period in 2019.
Domestic consumption was flat over the same period, selected to span the pandemic, according to the latest monthly data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But domestic production increased by only 433 billion cubic feet (5%), mostly as a result of low prices and consolidation within the industry.
In consequence, LNG exports have grown to around 12% of domestic gas production, up from 4% in 2019, and the proportion is set to increase further.
Net exports in all forms, by pipeline as well as LNG, hit a record 377 billion cubic feet in March 2022, up from just 121 billion in March 2019.
Rapid growth in LNG exports, in excess of domestic production, has put increasing downward pressure on gas inventories and upward pressure on prices.
At the end of March, working stocks in underground storage were 318 billion cubic feet below the pre-pandemic five-year average.
After adjusting for inflation, front-month futures prices climbed in May to their highest since November 2008, on the eve of the financial crisis and great recession.
In order to keep Europeans warm or cool, and avoid having them pay too high prices for Russian gas, real US prices are in the 83rd percentile for all months since 1990, up from the 8th percentile three years ago, signalling the need for more production and discouraging consumption.
Reflecting the anticipated shortage of gas, futures prices for the current year compared with one-year forward have moved into a record backwardation.
There are, however, signs that domestic producers are starting to respond to the strong price incentive to raise output. The number of rigs drilling specifically for gas has increased by 50% over the last six months, albeit from a low base, which should ensure output grows faster over the next year than in the last one.
The increase in the number of rigs drilling for oil should also help by increasing the amount of associated gas production.The U.S. gas industry has been very successful in marketing its production to consumers in Europe and Asia who are anxious to diversify their sourcing and lock in reliable supplies.
Now the industry must show it can produce enough gas to feed the export machine, or else it will be US consumers who are left footing the bill.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/01/2022 – 18:25
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