Jun 02

Today’s News 2nd June 2024

  • 1 In 9 Children In The US Diagnosed With ADHD, COVID-19 A Potential Factor
    1 In 9 Children In The US Diagnosed With ADHD, COVID-19 A Potential Factor

    Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    (Devonyu/iStock)

    Childhood attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is becoming increasingly common, with a new study revealing that one in nine American kids have been diagnosed with the condition—equating to 7.1 million children.

    Many more children in the U.S. have been diagnosed with ADHD recently. In 2022, there were 1 million more cases compared to 2016, potentially fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on children’s mental health and virtual schooling putting symptoms on display.

    Pandemic Stressors May Have Fueled Rise in ADHD

    The research article, published in the Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology, provided insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic potentially influenced ADHD diagnoses. The higher prevalence could reflect “a generally increasing awareness of and pursuit of care for ADHD and/or a reflection of poor mental health among children during the COVID-19 pandemic,” the researchers wrote.

    Previous studies have shown that the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the mental and social well-being of young people, who experienced stressors such as illness and death in the family and community, changes in parents’ work habits, disruptions in school life, decreased social interaction, and increased fear and uncertainty. A 2022 study found that these pandemic-related stressors “can increase symptoms of inattention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity.”

    The COVID-19 pandemic likely helped encourage an increase in diagnoses, as previously unobserved ADHD symptoms were front and center in households when children attended school virtually, according to the new study.

    Conversely, during the pandemic, schools faced greater challenges in providing support for those students, “may have led more parents to seek diagnoses to ensure access to support for their child,” the research team wrote.

    What It Takes for a Child to Be Diagnosed

    ADHD is one of the most common developmental conditions affecting children in the U.S. In the three-year span before the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly one in 10 children had received a diagnosis. To be diagnosed with the condition, a child must exhibit at least six symptoms of either inattention or hyperactivity-impulsivity for at least six months.

    The symptoms must be severe enough to be “maladaptive and inconsistent with developmental level” or negatively impact social, academic, and occupational activities, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders.

    Common symptoms of inattention include difficulty maintaining attention during tasks or play, not following instructions, often losing items required for an activity or task (like a pencil for homework), or being forgetful in daily activities.

    Examples of hyperactivity include fidgeting with hands or feet, leaving one’s seat in the classroom or situations where they’re expected to remain seated, or having difficulty playing quietly. Examples of impulsivity include difficulty waiting for their turn or often interrupting others.

    ADHD Gender Gap Narrows

    In the U.S., more boys than girls have typically been diagnosed with ADHD, but new data shows that the gap between the two sexes is narrowing. Before 2022, the boy-to-girl diagnosis ratio was 2:1, while in 2022, it dropped slightly to 1.8:1, according to the study.

    Among children aged 3 to 17 with ADHD, 41.9 percent had mild cases, 45.3 percent moderate, and 12.8 percent severe. Certain factors were linked to more severe ADHD: being aged 6-11 (vs. adolescents), living in households with lower education or income levels, and having a co-occurring mental/behavioral/developmental disorder.

    More white American children are diagnosed with ADHD than minority children, though the research team noted that “with increased awareness, such gaps in diagnoses have been narrowing or closing.”

    Children with public health insurance had the highest prevalence levels, as did children whose caregivers’ highest level of education was high school.

    ADHD in children was most common in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, compared to children living in the West.

    The report notes that the prevalence of ADHD in children is higher in the United States than in other countries. The reason “may be the result of variation in availability of clinicians trained to diagnose and manage ADHD, state and local policies, and regional differences in demographic characteristics,” the research team wrote. Future research could determine the differences between clinical guidelines and practices across countries.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 23:20

  • These Are The World's Largest Armies In 2024
    These Are The World’s Largest Armies In 2024

    Despite being considered the biggest military force in the world, the United States doesn’t have the largest army in terms of personnel.

    This graphic below, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, shows the top 10 countries by military personnel as of May 2024, including active and reserve personnel, as well as paramilitary forces. It is based on estimates from GlobalFirepower.com.

    Vietnam, India, and South Korea Have the Biggest Armies

    China has the largest standing army, with over 2 million active personnel. With increasing defense spending over the last decades, the country also ranks third in the number of tanks and second in the number of aircraft carriers in service.

    When reserve personnel are included, however, the Chinese military falls behind those of Vietnam, India, South Korea, and Russia.

    Vietnam’s forces include 600,000 active personnel and over 5 million in reserve. This is because Vietnam, along with countries like South Korea and Israel, has a standing policy of conscription for young adults.

    Interestingly, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in a massive increase in Ukrainian personnel numbers. Active personnel rose from around 170,000 in 2016 to over 900,000.

    Despite not having the largest army, the U.S. accounts for almost 40% of global military expenditures, with its 2022 spending totaling $877 billion.

    China ranked second in absolute terms, accounting for another 13% of world military expenditure at $292 billion.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 22:45

  • Our Chemical Facilities Are Vulnerable To Attack
    Our Chemical Facilities Are Vulnerable To Attack

    Authored by Chris Jahn via RealClear Wire,

    If our nation suffers another terrorist attack, it will be hard to argue that the signs weren’t there for us to see. The federal government has expressed growing concern that AI will empower attacks on our water, transportation, and financial systems. The Department of Homeland Security has warned that bad actors are using the technology to develop weapons of mass destruction. We know foreign nationals are illegally crossing our southern border in droves. And the death of Iran’s president could foment international conflict that deepens concerns about attacks in the U.S.

    Congress should be taking every measure to secure our nation’s critical infrastructure. Yet when it comes to chemical production facilities, they have left the door wide open.

    Last summer, legislators allowed a federal security program protecting chemical plants to expire. I hope it doesn’t take an attack on these facilities to show the vital role they play in producing our energy, food, drinking water, computer chips, medicines, cars—you name it. That’s what makes them such an attractive target for terrorists—and that’s why we should do everything in our power to protect them.

    After the September 11th attacks, Congress directed the Department of Homeland Security to create the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards program (CFATS) to address potential terrorist threats to chemical facilities. This helped DHS identify facilities that might be at risk of a potential attack and set national standards for addressing physical and cyber threats. CFATS also provided companies with access to valuable expertise from DHS and important tools to help prevent bad actors from gaining access. It successfully flagged at least 10 individuals with potential ties to terrorism.

    But last July, the Senate blocked the program, allowing it to lapse for the first time in 15 years. More than 80,000 individuals in the chemical industry have not been vetted against the FBI’s terrorist screening database.

    Losing CFATS is like the Transportation Security Administration losing its ability to secure air travel. To be sure, airports and airlines do their own screening. But a federal agency cross-referencing passengers with central databases makes it much more likely that a terrorist trying to evade detection will be stopped before boarding a plane.

    The chemical industry hasn’t been shy about opposing excessive federal regulations, but this is one program that has proven effective. In fact, a recent survey of American Chemistry Council members found that 96 percent support restoring the program, and 85 percent are concerned that failure to do so will compromise security. And this strong support for the program extends beyond industry. Law enforcement organizations, emergency responders, and labor unions have also called on Congress to restore CFATS.

    Our member companies are fully committed to securing their facilities, but the chemical industry should not have to go it alone. Weakening our chemical sector’s security only helps our adversaries. The House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved bipartisan legislation last year to keep CFATS active and keep our chemical facilities safe. The Senate must act before it’s too late.

    Chris Jahn is President and CEO of the American Chemistry Council.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 22:10

  • Alex Soros Gives Dems Propaganda Blueprint For "Convicted Felon" Trump Amid Party Infighting
    Alex Soros Gives Dems Propaganda Blueprint For “Convicted Felon” Trump Amid Party Infighting

    With Democrats high-fiving over the ‘historic’ conviction of their chief political rival, a fight has broken out amongst party leaders over how to gloat over this obvious political lawfare which was allegedly coordinated with the Biden administration, and rife with conflicts of interest.

    Even CNN senior legal analyst, Elie Honig, admitted that Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg (who reduced 60% of felonies to misdemeanors in 2023, yet elevated Trump’s misdemeanors to a felony), wrote in NY Mag: “Here, prosecutors got their man, for now at least – but they also contorted the law in an unprecedented manner in their quest to snare their prey.“

    “The charges against Trump are obscure, and nearly entirely unprecedented. In fact, no state prosecutor — in New York, or Wyoming, or anywhere — has ever charged federal election laws as a direct or predicate state crime, against anyone, for anything. None. Ever. Even putting aside the specifics of election law, the Manhattan DA itself almost never brings any case in which falsification of business records is the only charge.” -Elie Honig

    Now the Democrats are split on how to gloat over this communist show trial – with party establishment figures preaching caution and restraint, and the other side which sees Trump’s guilt as a political gift that should be used as a cudgel.

    Mini-Me Soros Pipes Up

    Arguing in favor of gloating is one Alex Soros, son of George Soros, who visited the Biden White House 14 times since October 2021 according to visitor logs. Young Alex said the quiet part out loud on Friday, suggesting in his infinite wisdom that Democrats should turn take every opportunity to call Trump ‘convicted felon,’ (of course, turning him into an even bigger martyr).

    “Democrats should refer to Trump as a convicted felon at every opportunity. Repetition is the key to a successful message and we want people to wrestle with the notion of hiring a convicted felon for the most important job in the country!”

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    Young Alex was ‘ratio’d’ into oblivion on X (far more comments than ‘likes,’ indicating disagreement). That said, he also has the firepower of his father’s network of organizations to promote whatever he sees fit.

    “As much as I would love to get money out of politics, as long as the other side is doing it, we will have to do it, too,” the millennial said in a WSJ interview last summer. 

    And who could blame amped-up, constitution-shredding Democrats for wanting to capitalize on this headline-sweeping, historic event of their own making?

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    According to Bloomberg data, headlines featuring ‘Bidenomics’ collapsed last year after the Biden administration realized pushing it was a terrible idea. Meanwhile, ‘convicted felon’ has just erupted.

    While Soros, the complex web of OSF groups, the Biden administration, and radical Democrats cheer this weekend, not just because it’s the first day of Pride Month but because of Trump’s conviction, the political assault on the former president was likely overplayed.

    Going deeper into Elie Honig’s analysis via @KanekoaTheGreat:

    CNN Senior Legal Analyst Describes How The Trump Conviction Was A Political Hit Job

    1. “The judge donated money… in plain violation of a rule prohibiting New York judges from making political donations—to a pro-Biden, anti-Trump political operation.”

    2. Alvin Bragg boasted on the campaign trail in an overwhelmingly Democrat county, “It is a fact that I have sued Trump over 100 times.”

    3. “Most importantly, the DA’s charges against Trump push the outer boundaries of the law and due process.“

    4. “The charges against Trump are obscure, and nearly entirely unprecedented. In fact, no state prosecutor — in New York, or Wyoming, or anywhere — has ever charged federal election laws as a direct or predicate state crime, against anyone, for anything. None. Ever.”

    5. The DA inflated misdemeanors past the statute of limitations and “electroshocked them back to life” by alleging the falsification of business records was committed ‘with intent to commit another crime.’

    6. “Inexcusably, the DA refused to specify what those unlawful means actually were — and the judge declined to force them to pony up — until right before closing arguments. So much for the constitutional obligation to provide notice to the defendant of the accusations against him in advance of trial.”

    7. “In these key respects, the charges against Trump aren’t just unusual. They’re bespoke, seemingly crafted individually for the former president and nobody else.“

    8. “The Manhattan DA’s employees reportedly have called this the “Zombie Case” because of various legal infirmities, including its bizarre charging mechanism. But it’s better characterized as the Frankenstein Case, cobbled together with ill-fitting parts into an ugly, awkward, but more-or-less functioning contraption that just might ultimately turn on its creator.”

    Definitely one of those ‘you know it’s bad when’ moments…

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    Here’s what folks on X said in response to Alex’s ratioed post:

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 21:35

  • Elevated Risk Of Epilepsy, Appendicitis In Children After COVID-19 Vaccination: Study
    Elevated Risk Of Epilepsy, Appendicitis In Children After COVID-19 Vaccination: Study

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Children who received the AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines faced an elevated risk of epilepsy and appendicitis, according to a new study.

    A boy receives the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in Newcastle upon Tyne, England on Sept. 22, 2021. (Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)

    Pfizer recipients were also more likely to suffer from demyelinating disease or heart inflammation, researchers found.

    Dr. Julia Hippisley-Cox, a professor of clinical epidemiology at the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences, and colleagues obtained data from a national database on COVID-19 vaccination, mortality, hospital admissions, and COVID-19 infections. They wanted to look at the link between COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna with 12 outcomes, including the heart inflammation condition called myocarditis.

    The population of nearly 5.2 million included 1.8 million children aged 5 to 11 and 3.3 million children aged 12 to 17.

    The data examined were through Aug. 7, 2022.

    In the primary analysis, researchers found 12- to 17-year-olds who received Pfizer’s vaccine were at increased risk of myocarditis, with an additional three cases per million versus the expected rate after a first dose, and an additional five cases per million after a second dose, and hospitalization with epilepsy, with an additional 12 cases per million after a second dose. Females in the age group also faced an increased risk of demyelinating disease after receiving a second dose of the vaccine.

    Researchers also identified a “substantially increased risk of hospitalization with epilepsy” among females after receipt of a first dose of AstraZeneca’s shot, with 813 more hospitalizations with epilepsy than expected per million doses, and an elevated risk of appendicitis after a second dose of the vaccine, with 512 excess events per million doses.

    While no excess events were found among Moderna recipients, the study lacked the power to detect statistically significant issues, due to few children in the UK receiving Moderna’s vaccine. Further, no elevated risks of the 12 issues were found among 5- to 11-year-olds.

    A secondary analysis, involving matching some of the vaccine recipients to unvaccinated children, confirmed an increased risk among 12- to 17-year-olds of hospitalization with epilepsy following Pfizer vaccination, and elevated risks of severe allergic shock and appendicitis in the age group following Pfizer vaccination. No increased risks of any outcome were identified among minor Moderna or AstraZeneca recipients. But among a group of 18- to 24-year-olds studied, elevated risks of a number of conditions were found, including myocarditis, immune or idiopathic thrombocytopenia, epilepsy, and acute pancreatitis.

    The study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Primary Care Research. Multiple authors declared conflicts of interest, including funding from Moderna and AstraZeneca. Limitations included reliance on hospital admission codes and death certificates.

    Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca did not respond to requests for comment.

    The paper was published by Nature Communications.

    The authors said that their findings “support a favorable safety profile of COVID-19 vaccination using mRNA vaccines in children and young people aged 5-17 years.” The Pfizer and Moderna shots utilize messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology.

    Dr. Hippisley-Cox, the study’s corresponding author, did not return a request for comment seeking data on the position. The authors cited in part how they found unvaccinated children faced increased risks of some of the outcomes, including multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children.

    Udi Qimron, a professor at Tel Aviv University’s Department of Clinical Microbiology and Immunology, said that the authors wrongly downplayed the risks associated with the vaccines.

    “It’s not surprising to learn that some of the study’s authors have financial ties to Moderna and AstraZeneca and/or have served on various UK and Scottish Government COVID-19 advisory groups. One author was even a member of AstraZeneca’s Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Taskforce and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation. The conflict of interest in this case is significant,” Mr. Qimrom, who was not involved in the paper, told The Epoch Times via email.

    “It is concerning that respected scientific platforms are being used to cover up mistakes and wrongdoing, particularly the coercion and immense societal pressure to vaccinate young children. This should never have been done,” he added. “It is disheartening to see scientific journals collaborating with such practices, which undermines public trust in scientific research, especially when it involves the health and safety of children.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 21:00

  • Biden Just Lost The Crypto Vote
    Biden Just Lost The Crypto Vote

    After the recent shocking ETH ETF approval, many hoped that Biden was changing his tune of relentless antagonism toward the crypto industry – TheBlock even went so far as to report that the “Biden campaign ramps up crypto industry outreach in surprising tone shift” – and would not veto the bill overturning the SEC’s SAB 121 which makes it more difficult for entities like banks to custody crypto.

    Well, that didn’t happen.

    Late on Friday, Biden vetoed the bill  that would strike down Securities and Exchange Commission guidance that the crypto industry, the banks and Congress all say has stymied its ability to work with banks. The guidance, known as staff accounting bulletin No. 121, has also drawn pushback from banks since it was published in 2022. Lenders have said it effectively restricts them from scaling up services to hold digital assets on behalf of customers by making it too costly.

    The resolution – which in May passed the House with a vote of 228–182, and then the Senate by a vote of 60-38 as 11 Democrats joined all republicans to smack down Liz Warren fluffer Gary Gensler – would have invalidated the SEC bulletin. Lawmakers backing the resolution, which passed the House in a 228-182 vote, said the guidance limits options for Americans who want to stow digital assets at traditional banks.

    “My administration will not support measures that jeopardize the well-being of consumers and investors,” Biden said in a veto message released Friday evening. “Appropriate guardrails that protect consumers and investors are necessary to harness the potential benefits and opportunities of crypto-asset innovation.”

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    In his statement, Biden added that he was “eager to work with the Congress to ensure a comprehensive and balanced regulatory framework for digital assets” even though both the House and the Senate told him that the bill he just vetoed offered precisely that.

    While the White House earlier this month said it opposed legislation that passed the House establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets – arguing it lacked sufficient consumer and investor protections – it stopped short of a full veto threat, indicating the president was open to negotiations on legislation governing the issue. It turned out all the senile president was “open” to was being manipulated by the anti-crypto militant wing of the Democratic party led by Senator Karen.

    So, much to the chagrin of the entire industry, Biden – who is far too gone to have any idea where he is, let alone with a cryptocurrency is – ended up following the advice of a handful of millitant, anti-crypto socialist luddites led by Elizabeth Warren, a move that will cost him what little support he had left within the crypto space, which has found an ally in candidate Trump (at least until the election that is).

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    Some speculated that the admin’s double U-turn on crypto was prompted by the rigged ruling in the Trump hush money payments case, which allowed Biden to once again show his true anti-crypto colors…

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    …  a decision which will now force the Democrats to come up with even more fake and illegal alien ballots to offset the flood of anti-Biden votes from the crypto industry. Even staunch never-Trumper Anthony Scaramucci said that the “very bad” veto decision will “cost him more than he realizes.”

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    As for Trump, hie recent efforts to court the crypto voters by both hosting an event for his NFT holders and promising to commute the sentence of Silk Road Ross Ulbricht seem to be working despite Trump’s mixed record on crypto.

    But there’s no question about Biden’s record with crypto now. With this veto, Biden has explicitly aligned himself with the losing duo of Gary Gensler and Pocahonatos, and indicated he will continue to have the SEC’s back in their crusade against crypto.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 20:25

  • "Democracy Is On The Ballot": California Democrats Seek To Prevent Voters From Approving New Taxes
    “Democracy Is On The Ballot”: California Democrats Seek To Prevent Voters From Approving New Taxes

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    “Democracy is on the ballot.”

    That mantra of President Joe Biden and other Democrats has suggested that “this may be our last election” if the Republicans win in 2024. A few of us have noted that the Democrats seem more keen on claiming the mantle of the defenders of democracy than actually practicing it. Democrats have sought to disqualify Donald Trump and dozens of Republicans from ballots; block third party candidates, censor and blacklist of those with opposing views; and weaponize the legal system against their opponents.

    Most recently, in California, democracy is truly on the ballot and the Democrats are on the wrong side.

    California has always prided itself on the ability of citizens to vote on changes in the law directly through referenda and ballot measures. That is precisely what citizens are attempting to do with a measure that would require voter approval of any tax increase, including a two-thirds vote for some local taxes. It is called the Taxpayer Protection Act and it is a duly qualified statewide ballot measure slated for the November 2024 ballot.

    The state Democrats are apoplectic over the prospect of citizen control over revenue and taxes.  What was a quaint element of democratic empowerment is now challenging a core vehicle of Democratic power. So Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democratic leaders have taken the issue to the state Supreme Court to demand that citizens be denied the right to decide the issue.

    In oral arguments, the attorney supporting the challenge explained to the justices that citizens are simply not equipped to deal with the complexities of taxation and should not be allowed to render such a decision.

    In a prior decision, Associate Justice Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar wrote that:

    “Whether the context involves taxation or not, all of these cases underscore how courts preserve and liberally construe the public’s statewide and local initiative power. Indeed, we resolve doubts about the scope of the initiative power in its favor whenever possible and we narrowly construe provisions that would burden or limit the exercise of that power.”

    Half of the Court seemed to be inclined to deny the public the right to decide the question.

    The Court, however, may wait until after the election to render a decision on the limits of democracy in California.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 19:50

  • Trump's 'Coal Country' Could Supply Nation With 40% Of Lithium Demand 
    Trump’s ‘Coal Country’ Could Supply Nation With 40% Of Lithium Demand 

    America’s transition to a decarbonized economy demands massive base metals and rare Earth minerals. Currently, China dominates the rare Earth mineral market. However, initiatives are already underway by the US federal government to sever reliance on the Chicoms and boost domestic mining and refining abilities. 

    One unlikely area where 40% of the nation’s lithium supply could be sourced from is ‘Trump’s coal country,’ otherwise known as good ole’ Appalachia. 

    According to Justin Mackey, a research scientist at the National Energy Technology Laboratory and PhD student at the University of Pittsburgh, wastewater from oil/gas rigs across the Marcellus Shale formation could supply the nation with 40% of its lithium needs. 

    “This is lithium concentrations that already exist at the surface in some capacity in Pennsylvania, and we found that there was sufficient lithium in the waters to supply somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the current US national demand,” Mackey told CBS News. 

    Mackey said there are lithium mining operations in the US. But he told local media outlet Pittwire, “This is different. This is a waste stream, and we’re looking at a beneficial use of that waste.” 

    He said finding lithium in water recycled in hydraulic fracking wasn’t difficult, adding, “If you can extract value out of materials, and specifically lithium from this, then you reduce the cost of remediating and handling this waste.” 

    The researcher said future wastewater extractions of lithium from oil/gas rigs in neighboring states, such as West Virginia, Western Maryland, and Ohio, could spark an “economic boom for the region.”

    Trump country has been economically decimated over the last several decades amid de-industrial trends. Death and despair, along with big pharma, helped ignite an opioid and pill epidemic that has killed tens of thousands, if not more. 

    Could Trump’s coal country be primed for revitalization trends and capitalize off decarbonizing trends? If so, then the land across the region could become increasingly more valuable over the coming decade.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 19:15

  • Strong Indian Purchases Push Asia's Crude Imports To One-Year High
    Strong Indian Purchases Push Asia’s Crude Imports To One-Year High

    Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

    Record-high crude imports in India have pushed Asia’s oil arrivals in May to the highest level in a year, per data compiled by LSEG Oil Research and cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.

    Asia, the key crude oil importing region and a gauge of oil demand trends, is set to welcome in May 27.81 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil volumes, nearly 1 million bpd higher than the April imports, per the LSEG Oil Research data.   

    Most of the 920,000-bpd growth in Asia’s estimated crude oil imports this month has been thanks to a 710,000-bpd surge in volumes shipped to India, which is back to importing increased volumes of cheaper Russian crude oil.

    India is estimated to see its crude imports jump to a record-high of 5.26 million bpd in May, up by 710,000 bpd from 4.55 million bpd of crude imported in April, according to the data compiled by LSEG Oil Research.

    While India is leading Asia’s crude imports higher, China is again showing signs of weaker import demand. The world’s top crude oil importer is expected to haul in 10.72 million bpd of crude in May, down from the 10.93 million bpd imports in April and the lowest per-day volumes since January, Reuters’ Russell notes.

    The stronger Indian economy compared to China and the renewed appetite from Indian refiners for Russian crude – after hesitation earlier this year when stricter U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil trade were enforced – have been pushing Indian fuel demand and crude imports higher in recent weeks.

    For example, India is estimated to have boosted its imports of Russian crude to a nine-month high in April, per data Reuters has obtained from industry and shipping sources.

    Moreover, India’s crude oil demand has been growing this year despite consistently higher prices, suggesting that it is more resilient to price rises than some expected. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 18:40

  • Global Cocoa Shortage Much Worse Than Previously Forecasted As Prices Surge
    Global Cocoa Shortage Much Worse Than Previously Forecasted As Prices Surge

    The International Cocoa Organization has admitted that the global cocoa shortage will be significantly larger than previously forecasted. Cocoa prices in New York have rebounded in recent weeks, inching above the $9,330 per ton mark to close the week. 

    First reported by Bloomberg, ICCO forecasted demand will exceed production by 439,000 tons, driven mainly by higher cocoa grinding in consuming countries. This is the second estimate for the current October-September year and is much larger than the February forecast for a deficit of 374,000 tons. 

    “Currently available data reveal that cocoa grinding activities have so far been unrelenting in importing countries despite the record cocoa price rallies,” the ICCO, adding, “As the 2023-24 season progresses, it is certain the season will end in a higher deficit than previously expected.”

    After the ‘great cocoa’ run-up in New York in the first 3.5 months of the year, through the first half of April, from $4,000 a ton to over $12,000 (a record high), prices crashed into May, down 44%. But in the last nine trading sessions, prices have surged to $9,330, or about 39%. 

    The ICCO has increased its estimate for global cocoa grindings to 4.86 million tons, up from the initial forecast of 4.78 million tons, and increased its production projection by 12,000 tons to 4.46 million tons.

    The revised forecast has likely captured the attention of Andurand Capital Management’s Pierre Andurand, who has been bullish on cocoa prices this year. 

    Earlier this month, Andurand joined Bloomberg’s Odd Lots hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal to discuss the cocoa trade. 

    Weisenthal asked the hedge fund manager: 

    So what did your analyst see? Or how was your analyst able to see something in the supply and demand situation that he felt, and you felt, was not being identified by the analysts who cover this closely?

    Andurand responded:

    I think it’s mainly an understanding of how much prices have to move to balance the market. You know, sometimes people can trade that market for like 20 years. They’ve been used to a range of prices and they believe, okay, the top of the range is the high price for example.

    But they don’t really ask themselves what makes that price, right?. And sometimes taking a step back can help. I mean what makes the price is mainly the fact that in the past you would have the supply response if prices were going up. But if now you don’t get the supply response, or the supply response takes four or five years, then you need to have a demand response.

    And a lot of people look at prices in nominal terms. So you hear people saying ‘Oh, we are at all time high prices in cocoa, but that’s because they look at prices in nominal terms. [The] previous high in 1977 was $5,500 something dollars a ton of 1977 dollars, which is equivalent to $28,000 a ton of today’s dollars.

    So we are still very far from previous highs. And so you have to look at a bit more history and understand in the past how prices reacted to a shortage, how long it took to recover the product shortage to actually solve itself. And what’s different today.

    So there’s a ratio that we look at that most people look at, it’s actually the inventory to grindings ratio. So it’s a measure of inventory to demand, what we call grinding is basically industrial companies that take the cocoa beans and they want to make chocolate with it. So it’s a process and some of them make the end product chocolate directly. Some of them sell back the product to other chocolate makers.

    And so basically a typical grinder would take cocoa beans and make cocoa butter and powder with it. And the prices of both those elements also went up even more than cocoa beans, which means that actually we probably had some destocking everywhere in the chain.

    So it looks like demand, when we look at the chocolate makers, the end demand for chocolate didn’t go down at all, it looks to be flat on the year. Grindings look to be down three, three and half percent this year, despite the fact that the end demand is the same in volume, which means that they’ve been destocking cocoa beans actually.

    And so we had destocking everywhere — at the end chocolate level, at the cocoa beans, at the cocoa butter and cocoa powder level. So we had this destocking everywhere on the chain and now we have the largest deficit ever on top of two previous years of deficit. And it looks like next year we will have a deficit.

    So we’re in a situation where we might actually run out of inventories completely. I mean this year we think we will end up with an inventory to grinding ratio — so inventory at the end of the season — of 21%. For the last 10 years we’ve been between 35% and 40% roughly. At the previous peak in 1977 we were at 19% and that’s what drove us to $28,000 a ton, of todays’s dollars.

    If we have another deficit next year, then we might go down to 13%. So I don’t think it’s actually possible. That’s when you really have real shortage of cocoa beans, you can’t get it and that’s when the price can really explode. And so understanding that you have to slow down demand and we know that demand can’t really be slowed.

    So that’s when you can have an explosion [in price]. And remember that these commodity futures, you need to have, they’re actually physically settled. So if somebody wants to take delivery, they have to converge with the price of the physical. If you have no physical, somebody wants to take delivery, the price can go anywhere.

    So it’s a dangerous commodity too short, right? If you have no physical against it. And actually sometimes we read news that the funds have been pushing cocoa prices. It’s actually completely untrue because the funds have been selling since February. They actually went from a length of 175,000 lots, so that’s 1.75 million tons of cocoa lengths, I think it was around like September last year in average, or a bit earlier, to 28,000 lots to 280,000 tons at the moment.

    So they sold more than 80% of their length actually. And the people who’ve been buying the futures from the funds, it’s producers because they’re producing a lot less than they expected.

    So what has been happening in the cocoa market is that you had a reduction of what we call the open interest, where both the longs would use their length and the shorts would use their shorts. And then we get into a market where you have less liquidity because you have less exposure, you have less longs and less shorts, and then the volatility increases.

    So in the past when people were comfortable being, let’s say, having a 100 lots position now because it moves more than 10 times more than in the past, we’re going to have like a 10 lots position, right? So the market became more — due to the fact that we had a massive move and we have a massive deficit, so everybody’s reducing their positions and because of the increased volatility, we have less activity. And that’s what makes the point more volatile as well.

    Andurand reaffirmed his $20,000 price target for later this year or next year… 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 18:05

  • What A China-Taiwan Conflict Could Mean For Semiconductors, Gold
    What A China-Taiwan Conflict Could Mean For Semiconductors, Gold

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    American-made weapons will soon be bound for Taiwan, American lawmakers are telling Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, sending shockwaves of uncertainty through electronics and metals markets this week.

    In a pointed “celebration” of Lai’s recent inauguration, Chinese military aircraft and warships have been conducting large-scale drills around the island. China considers Taiwan a strayed member of its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to assert its claim.

    “China will surely be reunified,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his New Year’s address. “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

    Michael McCaul, U.S. House Foreign Affairs Chairman, told Fox that the recent Chinese demonstrations are the most “provocative” yet. If China attacked Taiwan, McCaul predicted during his visit to the region, “it would make Iran shooting into Israel look like child’s play.”

    “I think right now, we will probably lose,” he said.

    One likely victim of such a conflict would be Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which holds about 70% of the world market share. Total industry value is expected to set a record this year at $630 billion—but that could change if China invades Taiwan and, as McCaul warns, “the island doesn’t have the capacity to defend itself” or its industry.

    “Everybody that has phones, cars—we have advanced weapons systems—everything’s dependent on semiconductors and this island, over time, because we’ve offshored [manufacturing],” McCaul told Fox News Digital. “And the shutdown of what’s happening [in Taiwan], semiconductors, would really shut down the world.”

    Changes in the market for semiconductors mean changes in the market for many base metals, including silicon, germanium, and gallium, all of which are critical components for semiconductor manufacturing. Gold is also a key component of the production process because of its anti-tarnishing properties.

    With a semiconductor shortage could come other electronics shortages, squeezing markets for everything from refrigerators to cell phones to electric vehicles. There’s precedent for such a shakeup, which occurred during the semiconductor shortage of the COVID-19 pandemic—and back then, the economic pandemonium didn’t stop short at consumer electronics.

    “The recent semiconductor shortage isn’t some far-off issue—it affects everyday citizens around the globe,” the Council on Foreign Regulations reported last year. “Supply-chain challenges can yield price hikes for consumers and lost jobs for manufacturers. Companies laid off thousands of workers [during the COVID shortage] because the United States lacked chips.”

    Such a drop in semiconductor production might initially appear to signal a decrease in demand for component metals, like gold. That seems to be the market’s immediate intuition, as shown by mildly ebbing gold prices following the Chinese drills—but a major complicating factor is quickly becoming apparent. China, already one of the world’s largest gold consumers, is busy buying up the precious metal at record rates. The country’s aggressions toward Taiwan will likely continue to drive precious metal prices upward, signaling a second precious metals boom when coupled with the rising market uncertainty and inflation that inevitably follow conflict.

    “China is unquestionably driving the price of gold,” Ross Norman, chief executive of MetalsDaily.com, told the New York Times. “The flow of gold to China has gone from solid to an absolute torrent.”

    Some experts suggest the move to amass precious metal stores could signal preparation for larger Chinese military involvement in Taiwan and increasing avoidance of ties with the U.S. dollar, which may be sanctioned in response to Chinese aggression. In short: China is betting on gold, not the dollar.

    “There is absolutely no question that the timing and the sustained nature of [China’s gold] purchases are all part of a lesson that [the Chinese] have drawn from the Ukraine war,” Jonathan Eyal, associate director of the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, told the Telegraph. “The relentless purchases and the sheer quantity are clear signs that this is a political project which is prioritized by the leadership in Beijing because of what they see is a looming confrontation with the United States.”

    “If [China] get[s] much closer to bullying Taiwan and countries start to move their investments out of China, [the gold reserves] will give them a bit of padding to be able to ride through some of the difficulties,” added Sir Iain Duncan Smith, co-chair of the UK Interparliamentary Alliance on China.

    Meanwhile, the President has signed an aid package with $8 billion earmarked for Taiwan and the surrounding region, a move that aggravated US-China relations and will encourage economically painful sanctions on both sides. Such spending could also pull the trigger on domestic inflation, resulting in the continued weakening of the U.S. dollar even as the Chinese economy is strengthened by its gold reserves.

    This type of monetary policy is why some economists, including Danial Lacalle of the IE Business School in Madrid, are sounding alarm bells at governmental inflation employed as a “policy, not a coincidence.” In this environment, Lacalle warns, it’s a bad idea to bet on inflated currency when choosing investments.

    “Staying in cash is dangerous; accumulating government bonds is reckless; but rejecting gold is denying the reality of money,” Lacalle said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 17:30

  • Pro-Palestinian Protesters To "Surround The White House" Next Weekend Over Rafah Strike
    Pro-Palestinian Protesters To “Surround The White House” Next Weekend Over Rafah Strike

    In the wake of a deadly Israeli strike at a tent camp in Rafah last week which produced horrific viral footage of charred corpses, days after the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt military operations, and miles beyond Biden’s ‘red line‘ (using US bombs, no less), pro-Palestine, anti-war activists are taking to the White House one week from today.

    Photo: Craig Birchfield

    ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), an anti-war group founded three days after the September 11, 2001 attacks, has launched an event to “Get on a bus to DC” and “Surround the White House for Palestine.”

    “June 8 marks 8 months of US-Israeli genocide of the Palestinian people, and marks the 54th anniversary of the occupation of Gaza. A month ago, Biden said that the invasion of Rafah was a red line. But now, the invasion of Rafah has continued for weeks, has expanded to the entire Gaza Strip, Biden’s red line is nowhere to be seen,” ANSWER wrote on its website. 

    The group continued, “Biden can’t draw the line, but we can. On June 8, we will come together from across the country and surround the White House.” 

    “On June 8th, tens of thousands will show Biden that the people are his red line — we refuse to allow him to continue the genocide against the people of Gaza! Instead of a red line, Biden gave a green light to Netanyahu’s invasion of Rafah by agreeing to send more U.S. bombs and missiles. While the government that speaks in our name arms the genocidal Israeli regime to the teeth, the people want freedom for Palestine,” said Brian Becker, National Director of ANSWER.

    Meanwhile, progressive outlet People’s Dispatch notes that a diverse range of ‘anti-imperialist groups’ are supporting the mass demonstration.

    These include the Palestinian Youth Movement, National Students for Justice in Palestine, U.S. Palestinian Community Network, the People’s Forum, Al-Awda: The Palestine Right to Return Coalition, Palestinian Feminist Collective, the ANSWER Coalition, U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights, Arab Resource and Organizing Center, International Jewish Anti Zionist Network, Writers Against the War on Gaza, Healthcare Workers for Palestine, and Palestine Popular University.

    “How many more homes have to be destroyed, how many children need to be killed, until this government takes definitive action to stop Israel’s war crimes. We are tired of hearing that Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are ‘concerned about the civilian death toll’. If they were really concerned about what Israel was doing, they would suspend all aid and tell Israel to accept one of the many ceasefire deals that is on the table. This genocide needs to end, and Biden has the power to do it,” said Celine Quissiny of the Palestinian Youth Movement.

    The event was teased during closing statements from the People’s Conference for Palestine, where Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) slammed Biden as an “enabler,” threatening that “we aren’t going to forget in November, are we?“

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    The issue continues to stoke the political divide in America – with mainstream Republicans and Democrats drooling over the thought of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a speech at the US Capitol (at the invitation of Speaker Mike Johnson, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries), while progressive Democrats and anti-interventionist libertarians overlap on this horseshoe issue.

    And here’s why…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 16:55

  • US Drivers Overwhelmingly Prefer Gasoline Cars To EVs
    US Drivers Overwhelmingly Prefer Gasoline Cars To EVs

    Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

    Americans continue to be fans of gasoline-powered vehicles and prefer them to electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids, a new study by KPMG has shown.

    Assuming all costs and features are the same, just 21% of consumers prefer an EV, the inaugural KPMG American Perspectives Survey found.

    The survey assessed the views of 1,100 adults nationwide to understand their outlook on their personal financial situation and the U.S. economy and their attitudes to energy and automobiles, among other issues.  

    Asked which type of vehicle they want to purchase, assuming costs and features are equal, 38% said standard gas-powered vehicle, 34% picked hybrid, and only 21% an EV. Standard gasoline vehicles are the top preference in the Midwest and Northeast, with 40% and 37% of people preferring them to other types of cars, respectively.

    In addition, consumer expectations for EV charging times during road trips showed a major gap between U.S. consumers and the perception of auto industry executives about consumer preferences, the KPMG survey found.

    A total of 60% of consumers want charging in 20 minutes or less compared to 41% which is what auto executives believe.

    The survey found that fewer consumers are likely to pay for self-driving features and entertainment, compared to safety, Wi-Fi, and a charging locator.  

    Many U.S. consumers resist buying electric vehicles because of politics—Republican voters are likely to have negative opinions about EVs and wouldn’t buy such a car even when they can afford it.

    Most conservative respondents in a Morning Consult poll for The Wall Street Journal view electric cars unfavorably, with 41% saying their opinion is ‘very unfavorable’ and another 20% ‘somewhat unfavorable.’

    Just 31% of people who identified themselves as conservative said they had a favorable view of EVs. This compares with 66% of respondents who identified themselves as liberals and have a favorable opinion of electric cars.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 16:20

  • Watch: Hezbollah Shoots Down Large Israeli Drone In Expanded Fighting
    Watch: Hezbollah Shoots Down Large Israeli Drone In Expanded Fighting

    Friday saw intensifying fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border as Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets in an expanded assault on northern Israel, some of which were sent to areas never hit before since the conflict started last year.

    On Saturday morning the Lebanese paramilitary group which is allied with Iran issued a statement saying it launched “an air assault using explosive drones against… the Yiftah barracks, targeting the positions of enemy officers and soldiers.”

    Hezbollah described this fresh operation as retaliation for an Israeli drone attack which wounded two Hezbollah members the day prior. Israel’s military had previously announced “two Hezbollah terrorists operating in the region of Majdal Selm were struck by an aircraft” on Friday.

    But later in the day Saturday Hezbollah claimed a big win, having “shot down a Hermes 900 drone which was attacking our people and villages.”

    We are now witnessing a drone war phase of sorts playing out. The large drone downing appears to be confirmed through widely circulating footage on Saturday:

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    “The enemy (Israel) intensified its attacks last night,” Lebanon’s National News Agency reported of heavy overnight fighting. This included “a series of drone strikes… which resulted in deaths, injuries and extensive damage” along the border. 

    This isn’t the first time Hezbollah has claimed a Hermes drone downing. It reportedly happened in early April as well, and there have been claims of several others downed throughout more than six months of conflict.

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    According to Israeli media, “The Hermes 900 is Elbit’s largest drone and has been sold to the Israeli Air Force, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and according to foreign reports, Azerbaijan.”

    “The UAV is a relatively large and expensive drone capable of staying in the air for approximately 30 straight hours,” the report noted. Each Hermes drone is worth around eight to ten million dollars and made in Israel.

    Meanwhile significant damage has been revealed at the 769th Brigade headquarters of the Israeli army in the Kiryat Shmona barracks…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 15:45

  • Bubble Symmetry: Could The NASDAQ Drop 60% And Round-Trip To 2,500?
    Bubble Symmetry: Could The NASDAQ Drop 60% And Round-Trip To 2,500?

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    The prospect of a 60% or 80% decline in the NASDAQ index is only horrifying if we stay invested in the index all the way down.

    Speculative bubbles are interesting because they’re never bubbles in real time; they’re only recognized as bubbles after they’ve popped, as we sort through the wreckage of the aftermath. Speculative bubbles are equally interesting for their uncanny display of bubble symmetry and scale invariance, two traits of manias.

    In bubble symmetry, the decline phase is the mirror-image of the manic boost phase, in both time and amplitude. For example, the NASDAQ’s dot-com bubble rose from around 1,100 in early 1997 to a peak above 5,000 in early March 2000, a rise of about 3,900 over three years.

    The bubble-pop phase lasted about three years and covered a decline / round-trip back to around 1,100: a decline of about 77%. The first chart below shows the remarkable symmetry of the bubble’s ascent and collapse.

    Scale invariance refers to the similarity of a 600 point bubble that arises in six months to a 6,000 point bubble that arises over 6 years: if we add a zero to the number of months (time) and the number of points (amplitude), the bubbles retain the same characteristics. Put another way, a speculative mania that lasts a week shares the same characteristics of a speculative mania that lasts a month and one that lasts a year.

    Pulling back to look at the NASDAQ index from 1990 to the present, what’s striking is the modest scale of the dot-com bubble of 1997-2002. What looked like an almost unimaginably lofty peak in 2000 (5,048) now looks like a pipsqueak bubble compared to the current heights (17,032).

    Also noteworthy is the time it took to reclaim the heights of the dot-com bubble. Almost 17 years passed before the index definitively topped its 2000 high of 5,048. But if we measure the purchasing power of $5,000 in 2000 and adjust for officially measured inflation from 2000 to 2018, the index had to top $7,360 to match the 2000 peak, a number it did not reach until early 2018–18 years after the peak.

    Given that the index crashed back to 6,879 in March of 2020, it can be argued that the index didn’t definitively surpass the 2000 high until 2020, fully 20 years after the dot-com peak. That is a soberingly lengthy passage of time to recover the full value of cash invested at the very top of the bubble.

    Now let’s project bubble symmetry on the current NASDAQ bubble. This is a FRED (St. Louis Federal Reserve) chart which doesn’t use nominal price but sets the value of the index on 2/5/1971 at 100. The basics of time duration and amplitude are essentially identical with the nominal price chart.

    If the index follows the symmetry of the 2000 bubble, then we can anticipate a 60% decline by 2028 to the 2020 lows around 6,800. The full retracement of the bubble would occur by about 2032-33 with a decline to the base of the bubble, around 2,500–an 85% drop from the 2024 peak.

    I’ve laid out a classic A-B-C-D pattern with a proposed narrative that tracks 1) systemic inflation and 2) the decay to zero of the Federal Reserve and Treasury’s ability to “save” the stock market with financial alchemy. I’ve made the case for sustained, systemic inflation here many times, and also made the case for diminishing returns on pumping newly issued currency into the financial system to artificially boost equities.

    The prospect of a 60% or 80% decline in the NASDAQ index is only horrifying if we stay invested in the index all the way down. Those with no stake in the index will be mere observers. Since 93% of all stock ownership is concentrated in the top 10% households in the U.S., and the bottom 90% have relatively little invested directly or indirectly via pension funds and retirement funds, the full weight of this decline–which history suggests is inevitable–will fall on whomever believes such a decline is impossible and a turnaround is, well, just around the corner.

    Those of us who lived through the 2000 bubbles experienced a trial run of all the emotions and market actions to come: the euphoria of easy, ever grander profits, the anxiety of the first decline, and then the swings from relief to fear as sharp recovery spikes wiped out those betting on a further decline before dropping to new lows.

    If inflation is now systemic, then we can anticipate the hope-anxiety cycle will follow the “inflation is tamed / inflation is roaring back untamed” narrative. So the current peak of the happy narrative priced to perfection collapses when inflation doesn’t vanish, then recovers sharply when inflation temporarily recedes, and the the next leg down occurs when the next wave of inflation soars to new debilitating heights.

    There are of course counter-arguments: stocks rise in inflationary eras, etc. There were counter-arguments in 2000 as well; many saw the first decline as a “buy the dip” opportunity, after $80 dot-com stocks fell to $40. That they would subsequently fall to $4 or $2 was not anticipated by the herd. That is of course the way bubbles pop: in fits and starts, always offering hope that the dreadful destruction of “wealth” will reverse.

    We don’t control macro-dynamics or markets’ response to these dynamics. We can only choose to be observers or participants, that is, choose our exposure to risk.

    *  *  *

    Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 15:10

  • General Dynamics' New 155-Millimeter Shell Factory Opens As War Cycle Kicks Into Higher Gear
    General Dynamics’ New 155-Millimeter Shell Factory Opens As War Cycle Kicks Into Higher Gear

    General Dynamics’ new 155-millimeter artillery shell factory in Mesquite, Texas, is set to produce 30,000 shells per month, according to a New York Times report. This will provide crucial support to the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the first and second lines and bring the US Army closer to its 100,000 shell target goal by 2025. However, this goal remains far behind Russia’s current 155mm shell production capacity of 250,000 rounds per month.

    On Wednesday, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the new Mesquite shell factory “will significantly increase our country’s ability to manufacture parts that are used to produce artillery ammunition.”

    Kirby said construction at the Mesquite factory began last year with funds allotted by the $95 billion security supplemental passed by Congress last month “to stand up new production lines as part of a national effort to significantly increase the number of artillery shells that we produce every month.”

    At full capacity, the factory will produce 30,000 155mm shells a month. The latest data from NATO’s secretary-general showed that Ukraine fires between 4,000 and 7,000 shells per day. The West is currently depleting 155mm stockpiles, along with other crucial weapons. 

    Shell factories in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, currently produce about 36,000 155mm shells per month. Once the Mesquite plant reaches its full capacity of 30,000 shells per month, the US Army will be closer to achieving its goal of 100,000 shells per month by 2025. 

    The Biden administration’s disastrous foreign policies have resulted in a chaotic world. From Eastern Europe to the Middle East, these conflicts, some of which are broadening, have resulted in the US dangerously depleting weapon and ammunition stockpiles.

    To correct this, the US and other Western nations have been ramping up defense spending as the war cycle kicks into a higher gear. This has sparked a bull market in defense stocks, as there is no end in sight to conflicts resolving this year. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 14:35

  • Why Consumers Are Angry About The Economy In Five Pictures
    Why Consumers Are Angry About The Economy In Five Pictures

    Authored by Miked Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Today the BEA released April data on inflation-adjusted income and spending. Let’s discuss the charts.

    Data from the BEA and BLS, chart by Mish

    Personal Income and Wages Key Points

    • DPI stands for Disposable Person Income. Disposable means after taxes.
    • Real means inflation adjusted.
    • Income includes wages, dividends, rent and all sources of income.

    Workers who don’t receive dividends or rental income view the world as shown by the red lines. Those who have no assets are renters.

    Index of Hourly Wages and Multiple Jobholders

    One reason Disposable Personal Income is up: People need to work multiple jobs just to make ends meet.

    This is also reflected in the blue line in the lead chart.

    Personal Income Four Ways

    Personal Current Transfer Receipts

    The above chart introduces Personal Current Transfer Receipts (PCTR). PCTR is income for which no goods were produced and no work performed.

    PCTR includes Medicare, Medicaid, disability payments, food stamps, rent assistance, and Social Security.

    PCTR is included in Disposable Income in all of the above charts.

    The green line in the above chart shows Real DPI minus PCTR. Please compare the green line to the red line.

    PCTR as a Percentage of Real Personal Income

    Hoot of the Day

    One of the reasons people are angry is the inflation-causing free money ran out. People increasingly have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet.

    CPI Up 0.3 Percent With Rent Still Rising Steeply

    Rent rose another 0.4 percent in April. Food and beverages were flat with food at home declining but food away from home rising.

    CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish

    Key CPI Points

    • Rent is up at least 0.4 percent for 32 consecutive months.
    • The CPI weighs rent much higher than PCE. That’s why the CPI is up 3.6 percent from a year ago and PCE only 2.7 percent.
    • All of the preceding income charts would look much worse if adjusted by the CPI rather than the PCE price index.

    Please read those points again. The first three income charts are worse than they look if adjusted by the CPI.

    For discussion and additional CPI charts, please see CPI Up 0.3 Percent With Rent Still Rising Steeply

    Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in April. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 32 consecutive months! 

    Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry, It’s Not Inflation

    The Case-Shiller national home price index hit a new high in February. Economists don’t count this as inflation.

    This is a bonus image.

    Case-Shiller national and 10-city indexes via St. Louis Fed, OER, CPI, and Rent from the BLS

    On May 2, I sarcastically commented Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry, It’s Not Inflation

    That chart is one month stale now. We hit another new record in March.

    The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, PCE, Shows No Further Progress

    More weakening: Real (inflation-adjusted) Income and spending was negative in April. The PCE price index remained flat at 0.3 percent for the month and 2.7 percent for the year.

    Chart from the BEA, annotations by Mish

    Earlier today I noted The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, PCE, Shows No Further Progress

    This post contains four charts related to personal income and outlays discussed above.

    Anger Synopsis

    Consumers are angry, and it’s reflected in the polls. I have been discussing the reasons for angry consumers all year.

    But Biden and most economists still don’t get it. They think the economy is doing well. Tell that to renters looking to buy a home, stuck with rent going up month after month.

    People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

    On April 20, I wrote People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

    Who Are the Renters?

    The answer is younger voters and blacks.

    The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.

    Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still.

    And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.

    That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.

    Will the Conviction of Trump Matter?

    I doubt it. People will vote with their pocketbook.

    For discussion of the political side, please see Trump Found Guilty – a Travesty of Justice for America

    If you are not interested in politics, please ignore that link and focus on the rest of this post.

    Returning to the economy, inflation will finally come down when rent abates but there will be a price. The price is recession.

    I expect a recession this year. It will not surprise me at all if a recession started in 2024 Q2, perhaps April.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 14:00

  • Netanyahu Quickly Slams Door On Biden's Major Gaza Ceasefire Plan: "Non-Starter"
    Netanyahu Quickly Slams Door On Biden’s Major Gaza Ceasefire Plan: “Non-Starter”

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed the door shut on President Biden’s new appeal urging both Israel and Hamas to accept the new ceasefire plan set before both sides. As we detailed earlier, Biden’s Friday afternoon speech was mostly about pressuring Israel to end the war. The message was clear at a moment the Democratic president faces dissent and pushback from his base headed into a tight November election: “I urge Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes,” he emphasized.

    But coming a mere hours later, Netanyahu has made it clear there will be no permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas is completely eradicated. He went so far as to say the current deal being pushed hard by the White House is a “non-starter”.

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    “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” Netanyahu said.

    “Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter,” he added.

    Remarking on the significance, Times of Israel observed that “His comments, in a rare statement published on the Sabbath and only in English, came after United States President Joe Biden announced Friday that Israel had proposed a three-phase deal for a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing hostages, told the terror group to accept it and urged the Israeli government to stand behind it.”

    Much of Biden’s speech had appeared geared toward convincing Netanyahu and the Israeli public to not drift into the more hardline positions of hawkish officials like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Biden had even claimed Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out an Oct.7-style terror attack again.

    He had said in the major televised address: “I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some are even in the government coalition. They’ve made it clear they want to occupy Gaza, they want to keep fighting for years, the hostages are not a priority for them.”

    Well… this grand White House ‘pressure’ initiative didn’t even last a full 24-hours…

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    This has also been a message of the ongoing anti-Netanyahu protests in Tel Aviv led by the hostage victims’ families. But Netanyahu’s office had made it clear right away that Israel’s military policy would not be dictated from Washington (despite the billions in annual US defense aid given). Israel media has detailed: 

    A US official later said the Israeli proposal was a highly detailed three-to-four-page document. It was apparently approved by the war cabinet — compromising Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and minister Benny Gantz — but presumably not yet presented to the wider security cabinet, of which far-fight ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are members, and on whose support Netanyahu depends for his coalition’s majority.

    Immediately after the speech,  Netanyahu — whom Biden avoided naming — released an initial statement saying that “The Israeli government is united in the desire to return our hostages as soon as possible and is working to achieve this goal.”

    Netanyahu’s “non-starter” comment is a slap in the face to the White House, which has made largely empty threats about reigning in Israeli policy in Gaza. 

    Biden now finds himself between a rock and a hard place in an election year and his Gaza policies are deeply unpopular among many Democrats. The intractable conflict and his handling of it has threatened to sink his chances going up against Trump as both campaigns kick into high gear. Israel’s military has in the last days expanded its Rafah ground operations, and has now moved into most parts of the southern city.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 13:25

  • Three Quarters Of US Voters Say Country Is "Out Of Control" Under Biden; New Poll Finds
    Three Quarters Of US Voters Say Country Is “Out Of Control” Under Biden; New Poll Finds

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    A whopping three quarters of voters say the US is “out of control” and on the “wrong track” under the Biden administration, according to a poll.

    A Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News survey reveals that 73 percent of voters overall hold the opinion, making it the highest on record under any president since the tracking began.

    The last time the number was this high, it was under George W. Bush in 2008, with 70 percent. The Obama administration had 65 percent expressing the same opinion.

    The poll also found, like most others, that Trump is leading Biden in six of the seven swing states, including Wisconsin, where some other polls have recorded Biden having a narrow lead.

    The survey also discovered that non-white voters are turning away from Democrats, and to the Republican Party. In the past four years, non-white voters have shifted approximately 40 points in favour of the GOP.

    Republican pollster Bill McInturff highlighted that 41 percent of registered voters now identify as Republicans, and 40 percent as Democrats. By comparison, in 2016, Democrats had a seven point advantage.

    As we highlighted yesterday, Democratic operatives have claimed the Party is in full blown “freak out” mode over Biden’s decline.

    A majority of Democrat voters still want Biden replaced with another candidate just months before the election.

    On Wednesday, Biden failed to fill a high school gymnasium in Philadelphia, with the school kids themselves filling up the empty space. 

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 06/01/2024 – 12:50

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