- Coming To A Town Near You: Expert Warns That No-Go Zones Are Growing In America
Authored by Daniel Lang via SHTFplan.com,
Nothing epitomizes the failure of Europe’s immigration policies more than the notorious “no-go zones.”
For decades the West has opened its borders to people who don’t share their values, and the West has utterly failed to encourage these people to assimilate. To even suggest that is now considered racist in many European countries.
The lack of assimilation has reached a degree that many of these populations have become resentful of their mediocre status in society, and have actually become more insular. Younger generations of these immigrants are more likely to follow ideologies like radical Islam, and they’re less likely than their parents to interact with native born Europeans. Many of them don’t even speak any European languages.
The result has been the rise of dozens of no-go zones, which dot the urban landscapes of Europe. These are places that act as ethnic enclaves within their host countries. They are nations within nations, where outsiders are routinely shunned, berated, and beaten if they dare enter. In addition to that, they’ve become hotbeds of terrorism and civil unrest. And believe it or not, these Islamic no-go zones are beginning to show up in the United States.
That’s according to Raheem Kassam, a conservative political activist and author from the UK. He recently wrote a book on the subject of no-go zones, which reveals startling similarities between the Middle Eastern enclaves of Europe and America.
Places like the Cedar Riverside area of Minneapolis, where Shariah cops make house checks to make sure Somali refugees are not becoming too Westernized, and Hamtramck, Michigan, where the call to prayer is blasted over loudspeakers in Arabic and storefronts that once peddled Polish sausage are now brimming with halal meats.
These can be the early warning signs of a budding no-go zone, says Kassam. But even more crucial, he says, is the level of assimilation by second and third generation Muslim Americans. If the experience of Europe is any indication, trouble is on the horizon for U.S. cities.
Of course, America has always had neighborhoods that were predominantly inhabited by various immigrant groups. But over time those immigrants still assimilated. That’s not what we’re seeing is America’s Muslim neighborhoods.
“But you look at the Muslim immigrants and they’re not doing that, they’re actually further ghettoizing, they’re moving inward, not outward.”
Polls by Pew Research show a higher proportion of young Muslims backing terrorism, supporting death for apostasy [leaving Islam], death for homosexuals, and the idea that the woman must cover herself with the hijab or the burqa.
So it’s the opposite trend of Little Italy becoming less like Italy and more like America.
“You see a higher disposition than their parents who believe these things,” Kassam said. “They’re holding onto this Muslim-American sort of thing, and they’re being supported by the political left.”
Kassam includes a whole chapter on Hamtramck, which in 2015 became the first U.S. city to elect a majority-Muslim city council. Several years before that, in 2011, the city approved the Muslim call to prayer over loudspeakers, effectively chasing away many of the last Polish holdouts.
What’s going on in Europe right now should stand as a warning to Americans. Those countries have made a terrible mistake with their immigration policies, which they may be paying for over the next few generations. But unlike Europe, we still have time to change course. We can still adopt a sensible immigration policy that invites people who treasure our values, and turns back those who would have no respect for what we stand for.
- The Working Class Can't Afford The American Dream
For millions of middle- and working-class Americans, the "American Dream" is all but dead. Far from being able to afford their own homes, the Fed’s latest survey on the wellbeing of US households revealed that nearly a quarter of Americans are unable to pay their monthly bills on time, and nearly half have less than $400 in the bank…
But in what’s perhaps the most comprehensive analysis of the financial security of American workers, a study published by HowMuch.net explores the true cost of living for working-class Americans in dozens of US cities.
What they found is hardly surprising. In most areas of the country, the average working-class household would be running a spending deficit. According to HowMuch’s methodology, the best place to live from a financial perspective on an Average Joe’s salary is Fort Worth, Texas, which would leave a working-class family with a $10,447 surplus at the end of the year. On the flip side, that same family would need an additional $91,184 just to break even in New York City.
To arrive at these scores, the researchers used data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for income levels, the National Bureau of Economic Research for tax data, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the cost of food.
Newark, NJ, Chesapeake, VA and Jacksonville, FL are the only coastal cities where a worker can adequately support his family without accumulating debt. Notice there are exactly zero affordable cities on the west coast.
Likewise, San Antonio is the only one of the top 10 most populated cities where a working-class family can afford a decent living. Out of the top 50 cities, only a dozen qualify.
HowMuch illustrates its data in the map below. The darker the shade of red, the worse off the typical working-class family is. The darker the shade of green, the better off they would be. The size of the bubble also fits on a sliding scale—large and dark red means the city is totally unaffordable. Bigger dark green bubbles likewise indicate a city where the working class can get by.
And as you can see, the red is much more prominent than the green.
So where are the best places for working-class families to live? Here are the top five cities with the net surplus wokers are left with after living expenses.
1. Fort Worth, TX ($10,447)
2. Newark, NJ (($10,154)
3. Glendale, AZ ($10,120)
4. Gilbert, AZ ($9,760)
5. Mesa, AZ ($7,780)
And here are the five worst cities, with their associated cost-of-living deficits.
1. New York, NY (-$91,184)
2. San Francisco, CA (-$83,272)
3. Boston, MA (-$61,900)
4. Washington, DC (-$50,535)
5. Philadelphia, PA (-$37,850)
Readers can take a more in-depth look at the data using HowMuch’s True Cost of Living tool, which is available here.
- Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%
Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%
– All four precious metals outperform markets in August
– Gold posts best month since January, up nearly 4%
– Gold reaches highest price since US election, climbs due to uncertainty and safe haven demand
– S&P 500 marginally higher; Euro Stoxx, Nikkei lower for month
– Platinum is best performing metal climbing over 5%
– Palladium climbs over 4% thanks to seven year supply squeeze
– Fear, uncertainty and political sanctions are amongst biggest drivers for precious metals
– Never been a better time to diversify and rebalance portfolios with stocks and bonds near record highs and looking vulnerableEditor: Mark O’Byrne
Market Performance in August (Finviz.com)
All four precious metals have made gains in the month of August.
Whilst platinum and palladium’s leading performances can largely be attributed to industrial factors they have also benefited from the safe haven demand which is driving gold and silver prices.
Safe haven demand really came into its own this last month. Issues with North Korea have stepped up a level whilst markets have finally begun to question the complacency they have been feeling in regard to the US political and financial situation, geopolitical risk and the increasingly uncertain outlook for the global economy.
Ultimately very little is known about what will happen with the US debt ceiling, increasingly overvalued stocks (both the NASDAQ and the S&P500), Trump’s plans for corporate tax, dealings with North Korea and (not forgetting) Venezuela.
We are living in very uncertain times indeed and investors decided to allocate funds to the ultimate safe havens – the precious metals.
Gold shines as investors rush into safe havens
This week gold rose to its highest point so far in 2017 as tensions between North Korea (but really, the rest of the world) and the US ramped up. For the month of August the price is up 3.59%.
Silver was also up thanks to safe haven demand, but its 5% climb was also in part due to manufacturing demand. Currently, about 55% of all silver consumed is for industrial use.
Gold has so far risen in every month, bar June.
Gold’s climb has in part been due to ongoing demand from countries such as China and India, but it has primarily been driven by the desire in the West to own a safe haven. This is not surprising given the ongoing concerns regarding North Korea, Venezuela, the Middle East and a lack of cohesion in the Trump administration.
One of the dampeners on gold and silver has been the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates. However, when they did so it had little effect. Expectations for further hikes are falling. Going forward Yellen and team are expected to slow down on further interest-rate increases which has provided an additional boost for the gold price.
In the very short-term storm Harvey in Houston, Texas has also impacted the price of gold and silver. As a result of lost income and recovery operations, US GDP is expected to be lower in the third-quarter than was initially expected.
In the long-term investors will look to gold and silver as they begin to price risk into the market. Yesterday we expressed our concerns over market complacency whilst other financial organisations have begun to warn clients about the overpriced equity markets and lack of perceived risk.It is also worth noting an expected climb in demand from China. Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington wrote in a note that China’s pricing of assets in yuan (together with the plan by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to sell yuan-priced physical gold contracts) could allow them to trade out of the banking system in the US
“Having accepted payment for oil or gas in RMB, the seller, be it Russia or Saudi Arabia or anyone else for that matter, does not have to worry about having excess RMB, they can simply trade it back into gold,” Tinker said. “We are moving to a multi-polar world.”
Platinum gains as Russia feels the pain
Platinum has performed very well so far in the second half of the year. This most recent surge has likely come about thanks to further sanctions being placed on Russia by the US. Russia is the world’s second biggest producer of the metal.
The World Platinum Investment Council outlined the following arguments for platinum’s role as a safe haven investment asset:
– Supply demand fundamentals are strong and ETF holdings are stable, despite price volatility
– Risks of supply declines are underestimated – cost pressure and falling mining investment continue – Downside risks to platinum automotive demand are overestimated
– Futures positioning follows poor sentiment with high correlation to price
– Platinum is undervalued against its past, its production cost and against goldPalladium climbs on Vauxhall’s woes
Palladium is currently at a 16 year high. There is a major tightening in the supply of palladium because of increased demand for it in engines. 67% of palladium supply is used in car engines to clean exhaust gases from gasoline engines. There is obviously a major push for ‘clean’ transport and the Vauxhall emissions scandal and obviously helped boost demand.
Inventories of palladium supply are down by abut 45% this year, whilst supply trails demand by the most in the seven years.
Despite the increase in supply, there has been a significant number of redemptions in the the two main U.S. and European palladium ETFs – the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares and the ZKB Palladium. By the 22nd August $49 million had been traded in. Supply in the spot market is reportedly so tight that companies are being forced to trade in multiple ETF shares in order to redeem them with the issuer in exchange for physical palladium.
ETFs are now being treated like palladium warehouses.
It is also important to note that, like platinum, palladium is also hugely affected by the sanctions on Russia.
It is also important to note that ETFs are a risky way to invest in precious metals and most investors would be better served owning actual precious metals rather than paper or digital proxies.
Conclusion: Stars aligning? Outlook good for rest of 2017
Earlier this week we explained how investors shouldn’t always be focused on price. Whilst it is nice to look at the metrics for August and see that all precious metals are up, we should instead focus on why they are up and most importantly the diversification benefits for our portfolios.
Precious metals are largely climbing because the perceived risk in the political and financial system is also climbing. Interestingly many commentators do not feel some risky issues have been wholly appreciated by the markets.
Problems such as North Korea are such serious risks that even someone who pays no attention to markets could spot it. The issue is that you have an overvalued stock market and a US President who cannot get his people together. This means that the US debt ceiling issue might ground the U.S. government to a halt.
These issues are ones which have not yet been fully priced into the markets. They likely will be in the coming months and then the safe haven role of the precious metals and gold in particular will come into its own.
News and Commentary
Gold up 4% in August – largest monthly gain since January (Marketwatch)
Gold steady near 9-1/2 month highs as N.Korea tensions persist (Reuters)
Gold Scores Fifth Monthly Increase; US Mint Bullion Sales Slow in August (Coin News)
Gold edges lower, but N.Korea worries lend support (Nasdaq)
Massive wartime bomb to be defused near German gold reserves (Irish Times)
Source: MarketwatchFrom Stocks to Bonds, the Bear-Market Signals Are Multiplying (Bloomberg)
Rothschild reduces exposure to US stocks amid turmoil (Standard)
Five charts show why millennials are worse off than their parents (FT.com)
When the Butterfly Flaps Its Wings – Kunstler (Zerohedge)
Buffett: North Korea situation is very concerning (CNBC)
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
01 Sep: USD 1,318.40, GBP 1,020.18 & EUR 1,107.98 per ounce
31 Aug: USD 1,305.80, GBP 1,013.17 & EUR 1,098.31 per ounce
30 Aug: USD 1,310.60, GBP 1,014.93 & EUR 1,096.71 per ounce
29 Aug: USD 1,323.40, GBP 1,020.34 & EUR 1,097.36 per ounce
25 Aug: USD 1,287.05, GBP 1,003.90 & EUR 1,090.90 per ounce
24 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 1,003.26 & EUR 1,090.44 per ounce
23 Aug: USD 1,286.45, GBP 1,004.33 & EUR 1,091.68 per ounceSilver Prices (LBMA)
01 Sep: USD 17.50, GBP 13.53 & EUR 14.69 per ounce
31 Aug: USD 17.34, GBP 13.47 & EUR 14.62 per ounce
30 Aug: USD 17.44, GBP 13.49 & EUR 14.60 per ounce
29 Aug: USD 17.60, GBP 13.59 & EUR 14.62 per ounce
25 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.26 & EUR 14.40 per ounce
24 Aug: USD 16.93, GBP 13.20 & EUR 14.36 per ounce
23 Aug: USD 17.06, GBP 13.32 & EUR 14.48 per ounce
Recent Market Updates– 4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders
– Gold Reset To $10,000/oz Coming “By January 1, 2018” – Rickards
– Gold Surges 2.6% After Jackson Hole and N. Korean Missile
– Diversify Into Gold On U.S. “Political Instability” Advise Blackrock
– Trump Presidency Is Over – Bannon Is Right
– The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S.
– Cyberwar Risk – Was U.S. Navy Victim Of Hacking?
– Global Financial Crisis 10 Years On: Gold Rises 100% from $650 to $1,300
– Mnuchin: I Assume Fort Knox Gold Is Still There
– Buffett Sees Market Crash Coming? His Cash Speaks Louder Than Words
– Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High
– Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since Nixon Ended Gold Standard
– World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2Important Guides
For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017:
Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland
Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore
Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)
Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
- Pat Buchanan Exposes What Harvey Really Wrought
Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,
Like 9/11, Hurricane Harvey brought us together.
In awe at the destruction 50 inches of rain did to East Texas and our fourth-largest city and in admiration as cable television showed countless hours of Texans humanely and heroically rescuing and aiding fellow Texans in the worst natural disaster in U.S. history.
On display this week was America at her best.
Yet the destruction will not soon be repaired. Nearly a third of Harris County, home to 4.5 million people, was flooded. Beaumont and Port Arthur were swamped with 2 feet of rain and put underwater.
Estimates of the initial cost to the Treasury are north of $100 billion, with some saying the down payment alone will be closer to $200 billion. In inflation-adjusted dollars, the cost of Harvey will exceed that of the Marshall Plan, which rebuilt Europe after World War II.
Though the country has appeared united since the storm hit, it is not likely to remain so. Soon, the cameras and correspondents will go home, while the shelters remain full, as tens of thousands of people in those shelters have only destroyed homes to return to.
When the waters recede, the misery of the evacuees left behind will become less tolerable. Then will come the looters and gougers and angry arguments over who’s to blame and who should pay.
They have already begun. Republicans who balked at voting for the bailout billions for Chris Christie’s New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy ravaged the coast in 2012 are being called hypocrites for asking for swift and massive federal assistance to repair red state Texas.
And whereas George W. Bush soared to 90 percent approval after 9/11, no such surge in support for Donald Trump appears at hand.
Indeed, the sneering and sniping began on his first visit to Texas.
He failed to celebrate the first responders, they said…
He failed to hug any of the victims…
He failed to show empathy…
First lady Melania Trump wore spiked heels boarding Marine One for Texas.
A prediction: The damage done by Harvey — as well as the physical, psychic and political costs — will cause many to echo the slogan of George McGovern in 1972, when he exhorted the country to “come home, America.”
The nation seems more receptive now, for even before Harvey, the media seemed consumed with what ails America.
The New York and D.C. subway systems are crumbling.
Puerto Rico is bankrupt.
Some states, such as Illinois, cannot balance their budgets.
The murder rates are soaring in Baltimore and Chicago.
Congress this month will have to raise the debt ceiling by hundreds of billions and pass a budget with a deficit bloated by the cost of Harvey.
And the foreign crises seem to be coming at us, one after another.
Russia is beginning military maneuvers in the Baltic and Belarus, bordering Poland, with a force estimated by some at 100,000 troops — Vladimir Putin’s response to NATO’s deployment of 4,000 troops to the Baltic States and Poland.
The U.S. is considering sending anti-tank missiles to Kiev. This could reignite the Donbass war and bring Russian intervention, the defeat of the Ukrainian army and calls for U.S. intervention.
In the teeth of Trump’s threat to pour “fire and fury” on North Korea, Kim Jong Un just launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan. Trump’s answer: U.S. B-1Bs make practice bombing runs near the demilitarized zone. Reports from South Korea indicate that Kim may soon conduct a sixth underground test of an atomic bomb.
War in Korea has never seemed so close since Dwight Eisenhower ended the Korean War with an armistice more than 60 years ago.
Despite the opposition of his national security team, Trump is said to be ready to repudiate the Iranian nuclear deal in October, freeing Congress to reimpose the sanctions lifted by the deal.
This would split us from our NATO allies and, if Iran ignored the new U.S. sanctions or began anew to enrich uranium, force Trump’s hand. Is he, are we as a country, ready for another trillion-dollar war, with Iran, which so many inside the Beltway seem so eager to fight?
The U.S. and Turkey have urged Iraq’s Kurds to put off their nonbinding referendum on independence Sept. 25. The vote seems certain to endorse a separate state. A Kurdistan, seceded from Baghdad, would be a magnet for secession-minded Kurds in Turkey, Syria and Iran, 30 million in all, and present a strategic crisis for the United States.
Along with the steady growth of entitlement spending, the new dollars demanded for defense, the prospect of new wars and the tax cuts the White House supports, Hurricane Harvey should concentrate the mind.
Great as America is, there are limits to our wealth and power, to how many global problems we can solve, to how many wars we can fight and to how many hostile powers we can confront.
The “indispensable nation” is going to have to begin making choices. Indeed, that is among the reasons Trump was elected.
- Pension Ponzi Exposed: Minnesota Underfunding Triples After Tweaking This One Small Assumption…
Defined Benefit Pension Plans are, in many cases, a ponzi scheme. Current assets are used to pay current claims in full despite insufficient funding to pay future liabilities… classic Ponzi. But unlike wall street and corporate ponzi schemes no one goes to jail here because the establishment is complicit. Everyone from government officials to union bosses are incentivized to maintain the status quo…public employees get to sleep better at night thinking they have a “retirement plan,” public legislators get to be re-elected by union membership while pretending their states are solvent and union bosses get to keep their jobs while hiding the truth from employees.
So what allows this ponzi to persist? It all comes down to one simple assumption: Discount Rates. You see, if you simply discount future liabilities at a high enough discount rate then you can make any massively underfunded pension ponzi look like a stable, healthy retirement gold mine.
In fact, just over a year ago we took a look at what would happen if we calculated the true underfunded level of America’s public pensions at more reasonable discount rates. The result showed that the media’s highly referenced underfunding of $2 trillion soared to something closer to $5-$8 trillion when more reasonable discount rates were employed.
We decided to take a look at what would happen if all federal, state and local pension plans decided to heed the advice of Mr. Gross. As one might suspect, the results are not pleasant. We conservatively assume that public pensions are currently $2.0 trillion underfunded ($4.5 trillion of assets for $6.5 trillion of liabilities) even though we’ve seen estimates that suggest $3.5 trillion or more might be more appropriate. We then adjusted the return on asset assumption down from the 7.5% used by most pensions to the 4.0% suggested by Mr. Gross and found that true public pension underfunding could be closer to $5.5 trillion, or over 2.5x more than current estimates. Others have suggested that returns should be closer to risk-free rates which would imply an even more draconian $8.4 trillion underfunding.
Now, the state of Minnesota has gracefully stepped forward to beautifully illustrate our point. Upon making a few minor “tweaks” to their various funds’ discount rates, the state found that their aggregate pension underfunding more than tripled from roughly $16 billion to over $50 billion. Here’s more from Bloomberg:
Minnesota’s debt to its workers’ retirement system has soared by $33.4 billion, or $6,000 for every resident, courtesy of accounting rules.
The jump caused the finances of Minnesota’s pensions to erode more than any other state’s last year as accounting standards seek to prevent governments from using overly optimistic assumptions to minimize what they owe public employees decades from now. Because of changes in actuarial math, Minnesota in 2016 reported having just 53 percent of what it needed to cover promised benefits, down from 80 percent a year earlier, transforming it from one of the best funded state systems to the seventh worst, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Minnesota’s teachers’ pension fund, which had $19.4 billion in assets as of June 30, 2016, is expected to go broke in 2052. As a result of the latest rules the pension has started using a rate of 4.7 percent to discount its liabilities, down from the 8 percent used previously. As a result, its liabilities increased by $16.7 billion.
But other factors also helped boost Minnesota’s liabilities: Eight of Minnesota’s nine pensions reduced their assumed rate of return on their investments to 7.5 percent from 7.9 percent, while three began factoring in longer life expectancy.
All of which resulted in this:
Of course, Minnesota’s underfunding didn’t just magically “soar by $33.4 billion” as Bloomberg puts it…in reality, the state’s pensions were always underfunded by ~$50 billion…the only difference is that that some pension administrators finally decided to stop lying to their retirees and report reality.
All of which rendered this Bloomberg map from just two months ago showing an 80% funding ratio for Minnesota completely obsolete…
…Sorry, Minnesota teachers but you’re almost as screwed as your counterparts in Illinois…you just didn’t know it until your bosses finally decided to stop lying to you.
- "I'm Not Scared To Shoot You" – Shotgun-Wielding Man Protects Houston Neighborhood
Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,
A man named Nash decided to protect his community from looters after Hurricane Harvey left the Houston area vulnerable.
Unfortunately, after a disaster, some people decide it’s the perfect time to steal from others.
This scenario is commonly known in survivalist circles as “without rule of law.”
It means that criminals aren’t concerned about consequences, 911 isn’t an option, and it is every person for themselves. If you aren’t ready to protect yourself, you are likely to become a victim.
You’ll note that the woman who is shooting the video of the man with the shotgun said that even some so-called “rescuers” were stealing from the people who got into their boats to escape their flooded homes.
This is well worth a listen for anyone who wants to be as prepped for the aftermath of a disaster as for the disaster itself. It’s a strong case for what I’ve said for years. Preppers MUST be armed if they want to be truly prepared. (For more stories like this, please subscribe to my daily newsletter.)
I wouldn’t mess with this guy. It’s obvious that he means business. This was a Facebook Live video shot by Tay Mayberry. (Warning: profanity.)
Instructions: Click the arrow at the bottom of the photo below for the video. If you don’t have sound, right click and select “Unmute.” You definitely want to hear this.
(If the video doesn’t work on your device, go here for the original.)
So, let’s be absolutely clear. The residents of the area have no option to call 911. There are no cops who will come and save them. They are absolutely on their own. This is what a “without rule of law” situation is like.
The shotgun-wielding man, identified as “Nash” said, in part:
“If you go back in that store, I’m telling you one time, I’m not scared to shoot you. I’m an ex-f**king SWAT deputy. I will cut your ass in half. Don’t go in that store no goddamn more!
I ain’t got a problem with shooting; I still got a license. Try me if you want! I’m a former law enforcement officer. I still support law enforcement; those that do right.
HPD (Houston Police Department) officers right now in the back of city trucks, all armed with AR-15s gotta go back to the neighborhood that’s still underwater, flooded, and try and protect these people. It don’t make no sense that these guys out here too lazy to get a damn job; the energy they using to rob they didn’t even try to use that energy to rescue people.
If you’re looting, it’s a violation of federal law, it’s a violation of Texas law at the time of a catastrophe.“
Looters can be seen running from the store. Mayberry’s narrative of the video is heartbreaking and gives you a clear picture of the lack of order after a disaster.
When her mother asks Nash if anyone has called 911 for him, Mayberry replies:
911 ain’t gonna come, Mama. 911 is outta there. It’s either martial law or everybody else watch you. 911 ain’t out there. There IS no law.“
She says:
“So this is what the hell the news ain’t showing ya’ll. This is what we’re going through on top of this storm. I was scared to call a rescue boat because the people on the rescue boats are rescuing people and then they f**king robbing us ya’ll.
We can’t call rescue boats because they have fake people posing on the rescue boats and when they come to your house they are robbing you in this storm. So you can’t call anybody to rescue you. You literally have to get out yourself.”
As well…
“There is no 911. There is no police. There is no law.”
Being prepared for a disaster is only half the battle. To survive, you have to be prepared for what comes after the disaster.
- "Trump Should Be Concerned": Mueller Partners With "Elite" IRS Investigations Unit
Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team of investigators are leaving no stone unturned in their crusade to find something they can use to try and turn a member of Trump’s inner circle, The Daily Beast is reporting, citing a source close to Mueller, that the special counsel’s office has teamed up with the IRS’s Criminal Investigations Unit. The “elite” IRS investigations squad will help ensure that investigators apply the maximum possible scrutiny to the finances of Trump’s inner circle in an investigation that’s nominally about election fraud.
Of course, the public has long been aware, thanks to Mueller’s collaborators in the media, that his team has no solid evidence to support a charge of election fraud against Trump or members of his circle. And while this latest “partnership” just confirms widely held suspicions that Mueller & Co. are grasping at straws, it could provide Mueller an opening to strike directly at the president, his family and closest advisers – or at least embarass Trump with a fresh batch of leaks.
First, as the Daily Beast points out, partnering with the IRS will allow Mueller’s team to access Trump’s tax returns, which we can only assume will promptly be leaked to one of the former FBI director’s favorite journalists at the Washington Post or New York Times.
“This unit—known as CI—is one of the federal government’s most tight-knit, specialized, and secretive investigative entities. Its 2,500 agents focus exclusively on financial crime, including tax evasion and money laundering. A former colleague of Mueller’s said he always liked working with IRS’ special agents, especially when he was a U.S. Attorney.
And it goes without saying that the IRS has access to Trump’s tax returns—documents that the president has long resisted releasing to the public.
Potential financial crimes are a central part of Mueller’s probe. One of his top deputies, Andy Weissmann, formerly helmed the Justice Department’s Enron probe and has extensive experience working with investigative agents from the IRS."
Both Mueller and his deputy, Andy Weissmann, who formerly led the Justice Department’s Enron probe, have “extensive” experience working with IRS agents. So there’s little doubt they will play ball.
“’From the agents, I know everyone has the utmost respect for both Mueller and Weissmann,’ said Martin Sheil, a retired IRS Criminal Investigations agent.”
In its report, the Daily Beast shares some fresh insight into the prosecution’s case against Manafort. Naturally, we have a few questions: Can somebody explain what role Paul Manafort’s forgetting to check a box on his tax returned played in the grand conspiracy to rig the 2016 election?
“It’s been widely reported that the special counsel’s team is trying to “flip” Paul Manafort, the president’s former campaign CEO, in hopes he will provide evidence against his former colleagues. Former federal prosecutors tell The Daily Beast one of Manafort’s biggest legal liabilities could be to what’s called a “check the box” prosecution. Federal law requires that people who have money in foreign bank accounts check a box on their tax returns disclosing that. And there’s speculation that Manafort may have neglected to check that box, which would be a felony. This is exactly the kind of allegation the IRS would look into.”
Even if Mueller and his team can’t find anything to justify an indictment, at least they can still punish members of Trump’s inner circle for their association with the president. Call it a consolation prize for inconsolable liberals.
“These investigations, which are often extremely complex, can take a lot of time. That means the people involved sometimes have to spend significant amounts of money on legal fees. The Daily Beast previously reported that targets of Mueller’s probe—including Manafort—are facing financial strain because of the probe, and that Manafort recently parted ways with the law firm WilmerHale in part because of his financial troubles.”
In a shocking moment of candor, the Daily Beast hints at what looks to be an ulterior motive for Mueller’s partnership with the IRS. The Trump administration never appointed an AAG to supervise the DOJ’s tax division, which would have to sign off on any charges relating to their finances. Therefore, he has “no one to keep Mueller in check,” as one former prosecutor phrased it.
“The fact that there is not a senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for the Tax Division, and that the Trump people have disregarded it despite warnings as far back as December that they needed to fill the AAG’s spot… shows what a self-created mess the Trump administration has found itself in,” said the former prosecutor, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “They have no one to keep Mueller and his Brooklyn team honest. They should be concerned about that.”
To summarize, even if it has nothing to do with Donald Trump Jr.’s willingness to acquire “opposition research” on the Clinton’s, or Jared Kushner’s initial failure to disclosure meetings with certain foreign officials on his security clearance application – or any of the other leaks used to cast aspersions on Trump and his associates – Mueller may have found his opening. It may only be a matter of time before the other shoe drops.
- Rickards: "There Are Three Things Going On With Gold Right Now"
Authored by Craig Wilson via Daily Reckoning blog,
Jim Rickards joined Kitco News and Daniela Cambone to discuss the latest news and analysis from gold markets, geopolitics and even bitcoin. The Wall Street veteran took on the bigger picture facing metals investors and what could be just around the corner in a bubbling market.
Jim Rickards is the editor of Strategic Intelligence and is the New York Times best-selling author of The Road to Ruin. Rickards’ worked on Wall Street for decades and has advised the U.S intelligence community on international finance, trade and financial warfare.
When asked why certain geopolitical tensions have greater impacts on gold and hard assets than others Rickards remarked, “There are two things going on,
“… first is that the North Korean missile threat goes from high tension to back down again. This is a very serious threat and we are headed for war with North Korea. While I don’t know what it will take to not just get gold to go up but stocks and other sectors, ultimately markets are going to be impacted.”
“People seem to have very short attention spans but that’s not how to think about it. It’s possible to see that Kim Jong-un is not deviating from his path to get nuclear weapons, the U.S will not allow it. There’s no middle ground there. It would be great if we could have diplomacy. I think we should also ratchet up sanctions on China. But I don’t see either of those happening.”
“Don’t underestimate the extent to which gold is being impacted by hedge funds, leverage players, and others that are in the mix for the current high in gold. They don’t really care if it is gold, soybeans, etc. but it is simply another commodity. They receive a nice profit with tight profits, tight stops.”
“The bigger picture to look as here is that gold hit an interim low last December and has been grinding higher ever since. Now gold is up over $200 an ounce and is one of the best performing assets in 2017. There’s a pattern of higher highs and shows a very positive occurrence.”
Gold and Weak Dollar Environment
The interviewer then shot back at Rickards asking whether the price and actions in the market always come back to the U.S dollar? The best-selling author and economist responded, “This all relates to currency wars. I think of gold by weight.”
“When most people look at the cost of gold they relate it to the dollar. That gives the dollar a privilege to say that it is the way to count everything. It is also possible to count gold in euro, yen or even bitcoin. I think of gold as money. These are all just cross rates. When I see a higher dollar price for gold, I think of the dollar as being weaker. Likewise, if I see a lower price for gold it just shows that gold is constant and the dollar got stronger.”
“There are three things going on right now in gold. There’s a fear trade, there’s technicals with supply shortages and ultimately a weaker dollar. If you want to know where the dollar price for gold is going, ask yourself where the dollar is headed. As the dollar gets weaker due to Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s plan to tighten rates into weakness. We’re getting disinflation, not inflation and the desire from the Fed is a weaker dollar.”
When The Street’s Daniela Cambone prompted Rickards on the rally in gold and whether it would be rejuvenated he leveled,
“I expect to see gold hit $5,000 and eventually to $10,000 an ounce. Maybe not tomorrow or a couple of years but that is the fundamental price of gold as money.”
“In a recent conversation with legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers he indicated to me was, ‘nothing goes to that level without a 50% retracing before it resumes its path upwards.’ Moves happen very fast. The question is, what are the catalysts that could take it higher?”
Is Bitcoin Stealing Gold’s Thunder?
Speaking on catalysts and what could shake the gold market the interviewer then asked whether Bitcoin could have a significant impact. Rickards pushed back,
“Bitcoin is a very small market cap compared to gold. I don’t think it has much impact on gold and looks like a bubble right now.”
“As someone who has been around Wall Street a long time I’ve seen a lot of different tricks of the trade and frauds that come and go. I am seeing all of the various schemes in bitcoin right now. There’s good forensic evidence that there are people doing wash sales right now and the suckers don’t know they are getting sucked in. Gold is still the ultimate safe haven.”
German Gold and ‘Weird’ Commodity Movements
Recently, Germany moved to reacquire its gold being held within the Federal Reserve system. Rickards latest analysis on the situation detailed that,
“In 2013 the central bank in Germany said it wanted its gold back from the UK, France and the US. Here’s the thing, Germany does not want all of its gold back.”
“As it is going through its election cycle, there are specific factions of the German government that are pushing to get German gold back to domestically being held. The German elections are in mid-September, it is not a coincidence that this happened just before that. It was to appease political dynamics as well as leasing development of gold.”
Looking internally, the recent visit by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to the US Mint in Fort Knox stirred many commodity investor analysts. Rickards offered,
“I was shocked to see the visit. It is rare and only the third time that a Treasury Secretary has visited since the 1930’s.”
“The other thing that is strange about the visit is that the monetary elites don’t want to pay any attention to gold. Several years ago Fed Chair Bernanke was asked about gold and he replied that it is given attention because of tradition. The reason that this official visit matters now is that when gold is being given public attention by government leadership, it enhances the value of gold as a monetary asset. They don’t want the general public to pay attention to gold. The question is, why did he do it and tweet out the visit?”
Finally, speaking on the mounting complexity of issues facing the American government Rickards warned that gold could be well positioned for the remainder of Fall. Rickards sets up,
“We’re coming up against a debt ceiling and budget train wreck. The US budget is at D-Day at the end of September. Separately, the Treasury is literally running out of cash. The government will have to raise the debt ceiling for the Treasury and it will need to, at the very least, pass a continuing resolution.”
“The Treasury has a trick up its sleeve. In 1973, the gold on the books of the Treasury is officially valued at $42.22 per ounce. It would be possible to go mark it to the market just like a hedge fund does. The Treasury could raise the value to a raised price and that difference between $42.22 and the heightened amount would only require a certificate to the Fed for money.”
“That is all under the Gold Act of 1934. The move could open up hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air just by remarking gold. While I am not saying this is going to happen, it is an option that they have available.”
- Venezuela Headed For "Messiest Debt-Restructuring In History" Thanks To US Sanctions
After being effectively shut out from global financial markets – a situation that was made more precarious by US sanctions prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt (unless you’re buying them off Goldman Sachs, should the bank’s asset-management arm desire to liquidate its $3 billion “hunger bond” position) – Venezuela is drawing ever-nearer to what the Financial Times describes as potentially the “messiest debt restructuring in history.”
So far, Venezuela has managed to forestall a default by stripping assets from its state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, commonly referred to as PVDSA, and shaking down local institutions of spare dollars – not to mention the explicit financial support of China and Russia. Recently, Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company, helped support its troubled ally, which enjoys the largest crude reserves in the world, by offering billions of dollars in advance payments for future crude supplies. Thanks to a deal brokered by deceased former President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has for years been Rosneft’s largest foreign supplier of crude. Last year, the oil giant accepted a 49.9% stake in PVDSA’s US-based subsidiary, Citgo, as collateral for a $1.5 billion loan.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
However, thanks to the US sanctions, which prohibit purchases of newly issued debt and existing bonds that have so far not been sold outside of Caracas, the country will once again need to innovate or risk sliding into bankruptcy. Making matters all the more urgent, the country recently suffered a loss in US courts after a judge ruled that Canadian miner Crystallex can seize Venezuelan money held in a custody account at Bank of New York Mellon to cover a $1.4 billion judgment awarded by a World Bank tribunal.
Crystallex’s victory could further embolden the country’s creditors, who collectively may be owed as much as $3.7 billion.
“Venezuela has been taken to the World Bank’s ICSID tribunal 43 times. Only Argentina has been subjected to more claims. Of these 24 are still pending, including claims from Anglo American, ConocoPhillips, Air Canada and Vestey. The Eurasia Group estimates that Venezuela owes a total of $3.7bn as a result of ICSID rulings, and Crystallex’s progress is likely to embolden other creditors.”
Adding to the country’s troubles, a major US clearing house has said it will stop settling some Venezuelan bonds, and Cantor Fitzgerald has stopped trading them altogether.
After months of rhetoric, the US – which for years maintained an uneasy business relationship with Venezuela, formerly South America’s wealthiest economy – has severed the country’s last tenuous ties to the global financial system…
“The message is that the US doesn’t want its financial system enabling the Venezuelan government in any way,” says Charles Blitzer, of Blitzer Consulting, who is a former International Monetary Fund official.
…And with the Crystallex ruling compounding the country’s troubles, its government is being set up for a “slow burn” leading ultimately to financial insolvency as creditors root out and seize whatever foreign assets they can find.
“Crystallex is the camel’s toe under the tent,” says Mark Weidemaier, a law professor at the University of North Carolina. “It will be a slow burn, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see people use the courts to ferret out where Venezuela’s assets are . . . and break down the barriers between the government, PDVSA and other entities.”
Typically, in a sovereign bankruptcy, creditors negotiate some kind of debt relief and trade their old, defaulted bonds for less valuable new ones. However, US sanctions may preclude this as an option for Venezuela, as the FT explains.
“…such a debt exchange would fall foul of the US sanctions regime, precluding any US banks from arranging one and any US bondholders from tendering their debts. In practice, it would mean indefinite financial purgatory for Venezuela until the US administration decides to lift the prohibition.
“If these sanctions stay in place, then Venezuela cannot restructure and it goes into limbo,” says Edward Al-Hussainy, a senior analyst at Columbia Threadneedle."
Since Venezuela’s economic crisis began four years ago, imports have fallen precipitously, leading to dire shortages of essentials like medicine and foodstuffs as the country's currency depreciated to the point of worthlessness. Unless the country can find some way to circumvent the sanctions, it will be forced to decide between countenancing further import declines, or a disorderly default.
According to Torino Capital, a Latin American-focused investment bank, Venezuela could choose the latter.
“Torino Capital…argued that this might counter-intuitively make a restructuring less likely. ‘It is possible that, faced with this choice, Venezuelan authorities end up deciding that the negative effects of a disorderly default on PDVSA’s capacity to generate export revenue are worse than the contractionary effects of further import cuts,’ the bank wrote in a note to clients.”
To be sure, a default could still be years away. And investors, for one, aren’t worried. The country’s debt has been largely unperturbed by the recent developments: PDVSA bonds have largely traded sideways, despite the recent developments.
“In the near term the impact will probably be minimal. Given Venezuela’s messy finances, the country is in practice already shut out of the international bond market. And while Crystallex won a legal skirmish, it is far from winning the war. It is unclear how much money Venezuela holds at BNYM and it may still be protected by sovereign immunity. Underscoring the investor view that little has changed, Venezuela and PDVA’s bonds have largely traded sideways.”
Still, a default, whenever it arrives, could signal the last gasp of the country’s embattled government. The country's foreign reserves have already fallen below $10 billion (though they received a boost following the Goldman deal…).
“If they default, they will be out of government within three months,” says Federico Kaune, head of emerging market debt at UBS Asset Management. “The calculation is that they’re either in government, in exile or jail.”
With the fate of the Maduro regime hanging in the balance, we imagine Washington will do everything in its power to force Venezuela into bankruptcy, allowing the US to claim victory over yet another foreign adversary.
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