- As Italian Crime Drops By 66.6% During Lockdown, Loan Sharks Focus Lasers
As Italian Crime Drops By 66.6% During Lockdown, Loan Sharks Focus Lasers
After the Italian government placed the entire country under a coronavirus lockdown, the crime rate dropped by 2/3 (or 66.6%, as Reuters reports) vs. the same month last year, according to a Wednesday statement by the interior ministry.
There were 68,069 crimes registered across the country in March vs. 203,723 the previous year.
The ministry did not provide details, noting only that domestic violence fell 37.4%, a smaller drop than the overall crime rate, while robberies at pharmacies, one of the few businesses allowed to stay open, dropped 28.2%. –Reuters
That said, the ministry also warned that once restrictions are lifted – which could be as soon as Monday – organized gangs could try to take advantage of struggling Italians.
To that end, reports of criminal loan-sharking jumped 9.1% according to the report, indicating that those who cannot obtain traditional financing are turning to illegal lending networks to make ends meet.
Earlier this month, prosecutors told Reuters that Italian mafia clans were taking advantage of the coronavirus outbreak to ingratiate themselves with low income families, while The Guardian reported nearly three weeks ago that videos have surfaced of known Mafia gangs distributing free food to quarantined families who have run out of cash.
“For over a month, shops, cafés, restaurants and pubs have been closed,” said Nicola Gratteri – head of the Catanzaro prosecutor’s office and antimafia investigator according to The Guardian. “Millions of people work in the grey economy, which means that they haven’t received any income in more than a month and have no idea when they might return to work. The government is issuing so-called shopping vouchers to support people. If the state doesn’t step in soon to help these families, the mafia will provide its services, imposing their control over people’s lives.“
To date, Italy has suffered more than 27,000 deaths and over 200,000 infections.
The Interior Ministry also warned that the mafia would try to tap into recovery funds offered by the EU to revive the death-spiraling economy, which Reuters notes is expected to be the worst recession wince WWII.
“This may favor corruption and illicit relations between entrepreneurs, public officials and criminal organizations,” the Ministry said, adding that it had beefed up police monitoring to try and prevent the mafia from taking advantage of the situation. In particular, ” the agro-food chain, health infrastructure, the supply of medical equipment, the hotel tourism sector, catering and the retail distribution sectors of small and medium-sized companies” will be kept under close watch.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/30/2020 – 02:35 - 77th Brigade: Is British Military Waging An Information War On Its Own Population?
77th Brigade: Is British Military Waging An Information War On Its Own Population?
Authored by Mike Robinson via 21stCenturyWire.com,
Last Wednesday, during the daily UK Government Coronavirus livestream, the head of the British Army, General Sir Nick Carter, bragged:
We’ve been involved with the Cabinet Office Rapid Response Unit, with our 77th Brigade helping to quash rumours from misinformation, but also to counter disinformation. Between three and four thousand of our people have been involved, with around twenty thousand available the whole time at high readiness.
To understand the implications of this statement, we have to go back to 2018, when Carter gave a speech to the Royal United Services Institute.
“In our 77th Brigade,” he said, “… we have got some remarkable talent when it comes to social media, production design, and indeed Arabic poetry. Those sorts of skills we can’t afford to retain in the Regular component but they are the means of us delivering capability in a much more imaginative way than we might have been able to do in the past.”
77th Brigade
Previously known as the ‘Security Assistance Group’, 77th Brigade was stood up in 2015 as part of ‘Army 2020’. The Security Assistance Group had been established following the amalgamation of the Media Operations Group, 15 Psychological Operations Group, Security Capacity Building Team, and the Military Stabilisation and Support Group.
77th Brigade is described on their website as being about ‘information and outreach’. But what does that mean? General Carter again:
We also, though, need to continue to improve our ability to fight on this new battlefield, and I think it’s important that we build on the excellent foundation we’ve created for Information Warfare through our 77th Brigade, which is now giving us the capability to compete in the war of narratives at the tactical level. [Emphasis mine]
It is in this context, then, that Carter’s words from last week’s livestream should be viewed. Carter has acknowledged that the British military is waging war on a section of its own population.
‘Rapid Response Unit’
Carter mentioned working with the Cabinet Office’s ‘Rapid Response Unit’. Established in April 2018 and also known as the ‘fake news unit’, the Rapid Response Unit was given an initial six months’ funding. It brought together a “team of analysts, data scientists and media and digital experts,” armed with cutting-edge software, to “work round the clock to monitor online breaking news stories and social media discussion.”
According to the RRU’s head, Alex Aiken:
The unit’s round the clock monitoring service has identified several stories of concern during the pilot, ranging from the chemical weapons attack in Syria to domestic stories relating to the NHS and crime.
For example, following the Syria airstrikes, the unit identified that a number of false narratives from alternative news sources were gaining traction online. These “alt-news” sources are biased and rely on sensationalism rather than facts to pique readers’ interest.
Due to the way that search engine algorithms work, when people searched for information on the strikes, these unreliable sources were appearing above official UK government information. In fact, no government information was appearing on the first 15 pages of Google results. We know that search is an excellent indicator of intention. It can reflect bias in information received from elsewhere.
The unit therefore ensured those using search terms that indicated bias – such as ‘false flag’ – were presented with factual information on the UK’s response. The RRU improved the ranking from below 200 to number 1 within a matter of hours.
The Rapid Response Unit was given permanent funding in February 2019.
Three months following the establishment of the Rapid Response Unit, Theresa May attended the G7 summit in Quebec, Canada.
There she announced the establishment of “a new Rapid Response Mechanism“, following Britain’s proposal for “a new, more formalised approach to tackling foreign interference across the G7” at the G7 Foreign Minister’s meeting the previous month.
The agreement sends “a strong message that interference by Russia and other foreign states would not be tolerated,” she said.
“The Rapid Response Mechanism,” she continued, “will support preventative and protective cooperation between G7 countries, as well as post-incident responses”, including:
-
Co-ordinated attribution of hostile activity
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Joint work to assert a common narrative and response
The UK government’s Rapid Response, then, is to create international agreement on a common narrative (via the ‘mechanism’), and then wage an information war on its own people to make sure that narrative is protected in the media (via the ‘unit’).
Fusion
During Carter’s 2018 RUSI speech, he explained the role of the mainstream press in “setting up a well-informed public debate”. He spoke about “political warfare” being war by other means, and he said that winning that war would require a “fusion” approach.
Here, he is referring to the Fusion Doctrine, which was launched during the Theresa May regime, as part of the 2015 National Security Capability Review.
“Many capabilities,” it said, “that can contribute to national security lie outside traditional national security departments and so we need stronger partnerships across government and with the private and third sectors.”
It should come as no surprise, then, that the Cabinet Office’s Rapid Response Unit is not only working with the military’s 77th Brigade, but is “leading on the ‘rebuttal of false narratives’ as part of the unit … [that also] involves the Home Office, DCMS, Number 10 and other agencies.”
The Corona-Narrative
General Carter said his 77th Brigade is “helping to quash rumours from misinformation, but also to counter disinformation.”
What misinformation and disinformation is 77th Brigade helping to quash? How much of the ‘disinformation’ originates from 77th Brigade in the first place?
Part of 77th Brigade’s role is:
‘Monitoring and evaluating the information environment within boundaries or operational area’
They not only ‘counter’ disinformation, but also watch social media, analysing how disinformation, including their own, spreads; mapping the internet and the networks of people sharing content between each other.
And for that, they have thousands deployed, and tens of thousands in reserve, not only in 77th Brigade directly, but right across government and the third sector.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/30/2020 – 02:00 -
- Your Freedoms Don't Have To Be Muzzled Just Because You're Wearing A Mask
Your Freedoms Don’t Have To Be Muzzled Just Because You’re Wearing A Mask
Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“If 2019 was the year of the street protest, of tear gas and rubber bullets, 2020 might be the year the street protest died, or perhaps fell into a deep sleep, and went online.”
– Journalist Christopher Miller
Despite all appearances to the contrary, martial law has not been declared in America.
We still have rights.
Technically, at least.
The government may act as if its police state powers suppress individual liberties during this COVID-19 pandemic, but for all intents and purposes, the Constitution – especially the battered, besieged Bill of Rights – still stands in theory, if not in practice.
Indeed, while federal and state governments have adopted specific restrictive measures in an effort to lockdown the nation and decelerate the spread of the COVID-19 virus, the current public health situation has not resulted in the suspension of fundamental constitutional rights such as freedom of speech and the right of assembly.
Mind you, that’s not to say that the government has not tried its best to weaponize this crisis as it has weaponized so many other crises in order to expand its powers and silence its critics.
All over the country, government officials are using COVID-19 restrictions to muzzle protesters.
It doesn’t matter what the protest is about (church assemblies, the right to work, the timing for re-opening the country, discontent over police brutality, etc.): this is activity the First Amendment protects vociferously with only one qualification—that it be peaceful.
Yet even peaceful protesters mindful of the need to adhere to social distancing guidelines because of this COVID-19 are being muzzled, arrested and fined.
For example, a Maryland family was reportedly threatened with up to a year in jail and a $5000 fine if they dared to publicly protest the injustice of their son’s execution by a SWAT team.
If anyone had a legitimate reason to get out in the streets and protest, it’s the Lemp family, whose 21-year-old son Duncan was gunned down in his bedroom during an early morning, no-knock SWAT team raid on his family’s home.
Imagine it.
It was 4:30 a.m. on March 12, 2020, in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic that has most of the country under a partial lockdown and sheltering at home, when this masked SWAT team—deployed to execute a “high risk” search warrant for unauthorized firearms—stormed the suburban house where 21-year-old Duncan, a software engineer and Second Amendment advocate, lived with his parents and 19-year-old brother.
The entire household, including Lemp and his girlfriend, was reportedly asleep when the SWAT team directed flash bang grenades and gunfire through Lemp’s bedroom window.
Lemp was killed and his girlfriend injured.
No one in the house that morning, including Lemp, had a criminal record.
No one in the house that morning, including Lemp, was considered an “imminent threat” to law enforcement or the public, at least not according to the search warrant.
Now what was so urgent that militarized police felt compelled to employ battlefield tactics in the pre-dawn hours of a day when most people are asleep in bed, not to mention stuck at home as part of a nationwide lockdown?
According to police, they were tipped off that Lemp was in possession of “firearms.”
So instead of approaching the house by the front door at a reasonable hour in order to investigate this complaint—which is what the Fourth Amendment requires—police instead strapped on their guns, loaded up their flash bang grenades and acted like battle-crazed warriors.
This is the blowback from all that military weaponry flowing to domestic police departments.
This is what happens when you use SWAT teams to carry out routine search warrants.
This is what happens when you adopt red flag gun laws, which Maryland did in 2018, painting anyone who might be in possession of a gun—legal or otherwise—as a threat that must be neutralized.
These red flag gun laws allow the police to remove guns from people merely suspected of being threats.
While in theory it appears perfectly reasonable to want to “stop dangerous people before they act,” where the problem arises is when you put the power to determine who is a potential danger in the hands of government agencies, the courts and the police.
Remember, this is the same government that uses the words “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” interchangeably.
This is the same government whose agents are spinning a sticky spider-web of threat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, flagged “words,” and “suspicious” activity reports using automated eyes and ears, social media, behavior sensing software, and citizen spies to identify potential threats.
This is the same government that keeps re-upping the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which allows the military to arrest and detain American citizens with no access to friends, family or the courts if the government believes them to be a threat.
This is the same government that has a growing list—shared with fusion centers and law enforcement agencies—of ideologies, behaviors, affiliations and other characteristics that could flag someone as suspicious and result in their being labeled potential enemies of the state.
Let that sink in a moment.
If you believe in and exercise your rights under the Constitution (namely, your right to speak freely, worship freely, associate with like-minded individuals who share your political views, criticize the government, own a weapon, demand a warrant before being questioned or searched, or any other activity viewed as potentially anti-government, racist, bigoted, anarchic or sovereign), you are most likely at the top of the government’s terrorism watch list.
Moreover, as a New York Times editorial warns, you may be an anti-government extremist (a.k.a. domestic terrorist) in the eyes of the police if you are afraid that the government is plotting to confiscate your firearms, if you believe the economy is about to collapse and the government will soon declare martial law, or if you display an unusual number of political and/or ideological bumper stickers on your car.
Needless to say, if you happen to be passionate about the Constitution and a vocal critic of government corruption, you’ve already been flagged in a government database somewhere.
Likely, Lemp was, too.
Now Lemp is dead and his family is devastated, outraged and desperate to make sense of what appears to be an insensible act of violence resulting in an inexcusable loss of life.
As usual in these kinds of shootings, government officials have not been forthcoming with details about the shooting: police have refused to meet with family members, the contents of the warrant supporting the raid have not been revealed, and bodycam footage of the raid has not been disclosed.
So in order to voice their objections to police violence and demand answers about the shooting, Lemp’s family and friends planned to conduct an outdoor public demonstration—adhering to social distancing guidelines—only to be threatened with arrest, a year in jail and a $5000 fine for violating Maryland’s stay at home orders.
Yet here’s the thing: we don’t have to be muzzled and remain silent about government corruption, violence and misconduct just because we’re wearing masks and social distancing.
That’s not the point of this whole COVID-19 exercise, or is it?
While there is a moral responsibility to not endanger other lives with our actions, that does not mean relinquishing all of our freedoms.
Be responsible in how you exercise your freedoms, but don’t allow yourselves to be muzzled or your individual freedoms to be undermined.
Understandably, no one wants to talk about individual freedoms when tens of thousands of people the world over are dying, and yet we must.
The decisions we make right now—about freedom, commerce, free will, how we care for the least of these in our communities, what it means to provide individuals and businesses with a safety net, how far we allow the government to go in “protecting” us against this virus, etc.—will haunt us for a long time to come.
At times like these, when emotions are heightened, fear dominates, common sense is in short supply, liberty takes a backseat to public safety, and democratic societies approach the tipping point towards mob rule, there is a tendency to cast those who exercise their individual freedoms (to freely speak, associate, assemble, protest, pursue a living, engage in commerce, etc.) as foolishly reckless, criminally selfish, or outright villains.
Sometimes that is true, but not always.
As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, there is always a balancing test between individual freedoms and the communal good.
What we must figure out is how to strike a balance that allows us to protect those who need protecting without leaving us chained and in bondage to the police state.
We must find ways to mitigate against this contagion needlessly claiming any more lives and crippling any more communities, but let’s not lose our heads: blindly following the path of least resistance—acquiescing without question to whatever the government dictates—can only lead to more misery, suffering and the erection of a totalitarian regime in which there is no balance.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/30/2020 – 00:05 - Portland To Ban Cars On 100 Miles Of Roadway To Promote Safe Distancing
Portland To Ban Cars On 100 Miles Of Roadway To Promote Safe Distancing
The city of Portland, Oregon will ban cars from 100 miles of roadway in order to encourage social distancing for people walking, biking or running during the coronavirus pandemic.
Photo: Will Vanlue They closures will primarily affect streets along designated neighborhoods which have lower car traffic in general, according to KGW8. Temporary barricades and signage will be installed to alert drivers of the closures.
The plan also includes expanding space for pedestrians along streets that are “narrow or missing sidewalks,” and provide more room with pop-up walking and biking lanes.
In business districts, PBOT said they’ll establish space so customers can line up with enough physical distance, and create dedicated loading zones for pickup and delivery.
The city of Portland has seen a dramatic spike in speeding since the pandemic began and a major decrease in traffic congestion.
Further details about the plan can be found online. It’s unclear when the closures will begin. –KGW8
“When we reach the point that we can re-open, we want to make sure our transportation system is ready,” announced Portland Bureau of Transportation Director Chris Warner.
Portland residents attend the annual ‘World Naked Bike Ride,” 2019 “Portlanders have made great use of their neighborhood streets to walk, bike, and roll during the pandemic. We’ve designed the Slow Streets|Safe Streets initiative to make sure they can continue to do this safely as we get back closer to normal.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 23:45 - Being Afraid & Eliminating Exposure To Germs Leads To Death by Fear & Germs…
Being Afraid & Eliminating Exposure To Germs Leads To Death by Fear & Germs…
Authored by Gary Barnett via LewRockwell.com,
“Do you begin to see, then, what kind of world we are creating? It is the exact opposite of the stupid hedonistic Utopias that the old reformers imagined. A world of fear and treachery and torment, a world of trampling and being trampled upon, a world which will grow not less but more merciless as it refines itself. Progress in our world will be progress toward more pain.”
~ George Orwell (1961). “1984”
Death is inevitable, so never hide from life, and never allow a moment of life to be taken from you by tyrants. All government is tyrannical, and all government seeks power and control, and today it is using a purposely-created crisis in order to gain that control. We are being told by false rulers to abandon our lives, and hide away from those we care about in order to stop a virus. This is the highest form of deception, and is only meant to divide us so sinister agendas can be accomplished in the shadows.
It has been forgotten in this day and age of total fear that our bodies, not governments, are our defense against viral agents. Maybe a few will learn from this fakery that germs are our friends. Unless our bodies are exposed to germs and viruses, natural defenses against sickness disappear, leaving the body vulnerable to every sort of germ and virus. Listening to these political trimmers therefore is detrimental to our health.
Coronaviruses are not a threat to healthy humans with strong immune systems. Viruses cannot replicate in that environment, which means symptoms and sickness are rarely present. In addition, sunshine and high vitamin D levels are of great importance, as is diet, exercise, sleep, and relaxing calm. What this means is that government and its idiotic mandates are actually killing many people, and those deaths are due to the very governing body that is lying about how to protect your health. They are in fact causing much death, much more so than this so-called Covid-19.
Virtually everything mandated by government to combat this virus is extremely detrimental to life, and this may be by design. As more deaths are falsely attributed to this coronavirus, more power and control will be concentrated in the hands of the State. One major factor in helping a virus to replicate and cause harm is stress. The more stress evident, the weaker the immune system of its host. When the immune system has to go into action in order to alleviate mental and physical symptoms due to stress on the body, this leaves the body undefended, and viruses take immediate advantage of this opportunity. In other words, people will get sick simply because of undue stress, stress now intentionally caused by this incompetent government.
Unemployment causes stress, fear causes stress, financial problems cause stress, foreign agents in the form of vaccines causes stress, hunger causes stress, worry, isolation, and lack of physical activity causes stress, self-imprisonment causes stress, and any relationship or family problems due to these factors causes extreme stress.
In addition, wearing a mask causes immediate stress to the body due to restricting airflow, and anyone with a weak immune system or with any respiratory issues whatsoever, is very susceptible to harm in this circumstance. Also, the state and health idiots claim that one should not touch their face, but wearing a mask vastly increases that touching due to the many obvious reasons to do so. Since viruses do not have the ability to jump from one person to another, masks then are not only ineffective, but may actually cause more viral spread than if not worn at all.
Then there is the ventilator issue, which is very suspect. Ventilators are actually killing those that have a viral infection.
“Some hospitals have reported unusually high death rates for coronavirus patients on ventilators, and some doctors worry that the machines could be harming certain patients. Mechanical ventilators push oxygen into patients whose lungs are failing. Using the machines involves sedating a patient and sticking a tube in the throat. Deaths in such sick patients are common, no matter the reason they need the breathing help. Generally speaking, 40% to 50% of patients with severe respiratory distress die while on ventilators, experts say. But 80% or more of coronavirus patients placed on the machines in New York City have died, state and city officials say.
That is quite a statistic, given that the state and its so-called health “experts” in the administration, at the WHO, and at the CDC, have been pushing the use of ventilators since the beginning, and have used massive resources not only to greatly step up production and purchase of such machines, but have propagated far and wide on a daily basis the effectiveness of these machines in treating coronavirus patients. But with 80% of those patients dying while on ventilators, is another agenda being worked forward? Are hospitals gaining a financial advantage for putting patients on these ventilators? Is this a way to increase the death count, just as is coding any and every death as Covid, regardless whether the patient died due to other factors?
All of the federal and state mandates to supposedly combat this virus have caused more undue death and sickness. While the extreme stress caused by these government mandates has been devastating as far as virus susceptibility is concerned, many more sicknesses, disease, and deaths are occurring simply due to government action. Stress and isolation cause any number of adverse problems, and many of those cause higher death rates than normal. The psychological harm alone is alarming and has been felt nationwide, and due to this harm, suicides have increased as well. While suicide has been increasing every year, with the onslaught of government interventions due to coronavirus, many risk factors that cause suicide have been greatly enhanced, and this will most likely not only lead to many more suicides this year, but will also lead to higher suicide rates for years to come. How many more will kill themselves in the future due to measures initiated by government during this so-called crisis? There is no way to know for certain, but indications are that it will far exceed the deaths of this 2020 virus scam.
The bottom line is this; sickness and death due to the government response to this manufactured pandemic will be multiple times greater than the death toll due to this coronavirus. But it is much worse than that, because the deaths due to this response will continue to rise for years to come, as people struggle to stay afloat in a country whose economy has been destroyed. Early and unnecessary death, suicide, family abuse, violence, despair, starvation, and loneliness will continue to reek havoc on Americans, causing any number of continuing health problems and death.
Population control through higher mortality and sterilization is evident in the government’s agenda, and distancing, isolation, forced vaccination, and undue stress are sought in order to facilitate this plan. The only viable solution as I see it is to eliminate government at every level possible.
“The state lies in all the tongues of good and evil, and whatever it says is lies, and whatever it has, it has stolen, everything it is, is false, it bites with stolen teeth, and it bites often, it is false down to its bowels.”
~ Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra [1896]
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 23:25 - New Report Reveals DaVita Engaged In "Lobbying Scheme" To Target Legislation Threatening Billing Loophole
New Report Reveals DaVita Engaged In “Lobbying Scheme” To Target Legislation Threatening Billing Loophole
One more iron has been thrown into the fire in the ongoing skepticism of kidney dialysis company and Buffett portfolio name DaVita, which has already drawn criticism from well known short sellers like Jim Chanos and media outlets like the New York Times.
Critics have raised numerous questions about DaVita’s business practices, but none more important than the company’s relationship with the American Kidney Fund, who has been accused of helping DaVita intentionally steer dialysis patients from lower cost government insurance to high cost commercial payors – a move that has had a profoundly positive effect on DaVita’s bottom line.
This morning, research firm Hindenburg Research released a new investigative report highlighting that DaVita also appears to be the main funding entity behind a powerful lobbying group in California that has been set up to oppose state legislation targeting the AKF loophole. The report also exposes that many groups whose names are being used, allegedly in support of voting down the bill, had little to no knowledge that they were involved.
The report states:
“DaVita’s most lucrative scheme is finally becoming obvious to insurers, patients and legislators following multiple media exposés. As a result, legislation is starting to specifically target the company’s primary remaining profit center. We intend to highlight the legislative challenges currently facing DaVita at both the state and national level that we believe will persist until the loophole driving this scheme has been closed.
As DaVita works against one of its main legislative challenges of the moment, California Assembly Bill 290, we sought to understand the company’s lobbying effort. We found that DaVita is, in characteristic fashion, engaging in what looks to be underhanded lobbying tactics in order to defend its charity scheme.”
The report highlights that the state of California is estimated to account for 15-20% of the company’s dialysis business and that the assemblyman who introduced the California bill “called DaVita’s charity loophole a ‘self-serving scam’ and ‘a scheme to bankroll patients’ healthcare premiums'”.
A coalition that was formed to oppose the bill claims the support of many groups in California, but the report says, of these groups: “most readily admitted to not knowing anything about the bill and/or simply taking their cues from lobbyists or other organizations. Some didn’t even know they opposed it at all.”
For instance, the Commander of the State of California American GI Forum told Hindenburg:
“As far as I’m concerned, I haven’t been informed about anything that’s out there or stance that we take, etc., so I can’t really say why are we opposed to it.”
The report also reveals that about 90% of the funding for the lobbying group has come from large for-profit dialysis corporations such as DaVita and Fresenius. DaVita is said to have represented about 60% of the group’s funding over the last 2 years, having donated over $67 million to the group in that period.
Hindenburg writes that despite not having a position in the company’s stock, they “thought it would be important to shed light on the ridiculous abuse of the medical system that continues under a cloak of legitimate lobbying efforts.”
You can read the full report here:
DaVita is Secretly Trying to Defend its Charity Scheme with a Lobbying Scheme from HindenburgResearch
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 23:05 - No Tanks For Old Marines – Why America's Most Powerful Fighting Force Is Restructuring
No Tanks For Old Marines – Why America’s Most Powerful Fighting Force Is Restructuring
Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
By 2030 the U.S. Marine Corps will have gone through a major restructuring, most notably eliminating tanks from usage all together and reducing its total number of men. America’s military at home has gone from an expensive but mostly unseen protector during the Cold War to a post 9/11 icon of mandatory worship by the Mainstream Media. So it is very surprising just how little attention this massive restructure is getting outside the veteran blogosphere. The elite of the largest, most expensive and arguably most powerful military in the World is rethinking its strategy, but why and where is this all going?
There is NO conspiracy
One of the natural reactions to the U.S. government “downsizing” a branch of the military and cutting tanks will be the usual panic-based reaction that “the end is nigh” and that this “is a sign” of the end of America. This is highly unlikely to be the case. The Armed Forces have gotten from Trump everything that they want and the “checks are going through”. There is currently no lack of funding for the U.S. military so we shouldn’t pretend this is the first sign of it. Furthermore, the new 173,000 man force is only slightly smaller than its 2010 record of 200,000+ men. So is a reduction in manpower of roughly 13% a sign of an upcoming collapse? No. Does this save a massive amount of money for the military budget? No.
The same is true for tanks, they are not being cut for financial reasons. Even with a safe overestimate of the cost of one M1 Abrams tank being $10 million there is plenty of room in the $750+ billion dollar budget for them. Cost is not the issue.
Sorry accelerationists but this is not a sign of an upcoming collapse.
The Cold War is finally dead
The cliché that we are always planning to fight our “father’s war” is proven be true time and again over the course of history. The conservatively-minded well-trained generals of the Confederacy expected a purely Napoleonic campaign of musket and bayonet, and what they got was the dawn of industrialized war. The French were sure that WWI would involve volley fire and cavalry looking sharp in their bright red “pantaloons”. And, the U.S. entered Vietnam with the mindset and strategies of fighting the Axis powers, “if we just drop enough bombs, they’ll surrender for sure”.
This is all an aspect of simple human nature as we plan for what we know and understand, not something theoretical. However, this restructure of the Marines could be the exception to the rule.
During the Iraq War(s) it became apparent that the U.S. with forces designed to fight a Cold War were perfect for crushing Saddam Hussein’s traditional army within days. Now holding the very same country during an insurgency with those forces, that is another story.
Photo: The Abrams is a good soldier but terrible policeman.
The Abrams which performed brilliantly against Iraq’s tanks became a sitting duck in tight urban environments where it could be hit and crippled by local yokels with primitive RPGs. Urban environments provide opportunities to strike a tank from angles that reduce the effectiveness of its armor. Similar musings have been made about the U.S. Navy with its big brilliant ships that could be easily sunk by missiles or attacks from garbage quality boats crewed by those willing to take casualties.
Essentially, big armored targets are not is useful for war in the 21st century, when the offensive weapons that can take them out are extremely cheap by comparison, and new generations of cheap(er) anti-tank weapons continue to be developed.
So, dumping tanks is probably a logical step. To be honest we should all give the men who made these plans a round of applause for not repeating the same mistakes of history by continuing to fight ISIS with a force designed to break the Warsaw Pact. Except, there remains one issue…
Video: A great explanation of what the new Marine Corps is going to look like from “Matsimus”.
China, really?
The official logic for the restructuring claims that the real threat the Marine Corps is being designed to fight is actually China and by extension Russia, not the Taliban/Al Nusra/ISIS etc. Perhaps because hating China has become the hip cool thing to do under the Trump administration it is was easier to sell these reforms as a means to counter the dragon, but an infantry focused force with some new-fangled drones and tech is not going to be what brings down China. Infantry is what is needed to hold positions, but good luck trying to Guangzhou on foot like some Hollywood D-Day fantasy.
What they probably mean, when stating Beijing as the real target, is that they want to counter China in some proxy conflicts in fights with small numbers where tanks are weak to today’s long range weaponry. This logic makes much more sense.
The core of the decision to restructure seems to have come from wargames in 2018-2019. These exercises played out a proxy style conflict between the U.S. and other entities in the sands of the Middle-East. The Marine Times broke down the results of the wargames as follows…
“But tanks and armored vehicles have had trouble surviving against the threat of precision strike and the plethora of drone and reconnaissance systems flooding conflict zones across the Middle East.”
They also presented experience from Turkey’s moves in Syria that support the theory that tanks are going out of fashion quickly…
“Turkey posted videos highlighting a mixed role of drones, Paladin artillery systems and aircraft pounding Syrian armor from the skies over the course of several days. The Syrian army appeared helpless to defend from the onslaught of long range systems. Even tanks camouflaged by buildings and bushes were no match for sensors and thermal imaging watching from the skies.”
These exercises probably were the nail in the coffin for the Abrams and a big motivation to buy more drones. The Marine Times sums it up this way…
The Corps instead is looking for mobile systems and units that can survive within the reach of precision fires to “attrit adversary forces,” create dilemmas for the enemy and “consume adversary ISR resources,” according to the report.
In summation what does this restructure mean?
It is not part of some way to mask the fall of the “American Empire” as the military is still well funded and the reduction of troops is minor. Tanks’ costs will be replaced by drones and other tech.
The Marine Corps is actually trying structure itself to fight today’s war and today’s enemy.
Based on recent wargames, the Iraq/Afghanistan Conflicts and the Syrian Civil War tanks are becoming obsolete quickly and this move to dump them may be copied by other nations.
A 170,000+ mostly infantry force with drones will not scare China, but it will have better chances at success in occupational actions against insurgents/terrorists, or in proxy conflicts against China.
For the contingent that believes that non-military people cannot write about the military I’d like to remind you that the governments that send armies off to die generally don’t serve, yet they make all the big military decisions. I await your hate mail.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 22:45 - "The Truce Is Over": Trump Considering Ways To Punish China, Convinced Beijing "Will Do Anything" To Make Him Lose Re-election
“The Truce Is Over”: Trump Considering Ways To Punish China, Convinced Beijing “Will Do Anything” To Make Him Lose Re-election
And to think just three months ago things between the US and China, which had just signed ‘Phase 1’ of the long-awaited trade deal were going “so well.”
In an Oval Office interview with Reuters published Wednesday night, Trump said he thinks that China is determined to see him lose the November election based on Beijing’s response to the coronavirus, and that he is considering various ways to punish the Chinese government which he he again blamed for allowing the virus to spread across the world.
“China will do anything they can to have me lose this race,” Trump said in the interview and said he was looking at different options in terms of consequences for Beijing over the virus. “I can do a lot,” he said.
Trump has heaped blame on China for a global pandemic that has killed at least 60,000 people in the United States and thrown the U.S. economy into a deep recession, putting in jeopardy Trump’s hopes for another four-year term.
Worried that an attempt to reopen the economy would be hindered by a second infection wave in the fall, forcing the US to shutter again and sending the economy into an even deeper depression, Trump said he believed China should have been more active in letting the world know about the coronavirus much sooner.
Asked whether he was considering the use of tariffs or even debt write-offs for China, Trump would not offer specifics. “There are many things I can do,” he said. “We’re looking for what happened.”
“They’re constantly using public relations to try to make it like they’re innocent parties,” he said of Chinese officials.
One example is Global Times Editor in Chief who is engaged in a daily stream of propaganda on twitter, vilifying Trump and the US as the following example demonstrates:
Already fell 4.8% in Q1, will definitely be worse in Q2. How will President Trump explain? I guess he would say the figure is better than expected and is so much better than any other country in the world.When China sees positive growth rate in Q2,he would say the number is fake. pic.twitter.com/PN10JicZKI
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) April 29, 2020
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“China will do anything they can to have me lose this race,” said Trump. He said he believes Beijing wants Joe Biden to win the race to ease the pressure Trump has placed on China over trade and other issues.
A senior Trump administration official told Reuters that an informal “truce” in the war of words that Trump and Xi essentially agreed to in a phone call in late March now appeared to be over.
Earlier Wednesday, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said that China posed a threat to the world by hiding information about the origin of the coronavirus: “The Chinese Communist Party now has a responsibility to tell the world how this pandemic got out of China and all across the world, causing such global economic devastation,” Pompeo told Fox News on Wednesday morning, during an interview in which he repeatedly criticized China’s government. “America needs to hold them accountable.”
The comments came after China Central Television’s top evening news program on Wednesday questioned the transparency and accuracy of U.S. data on Covid-19 infections; they also followed a US government report which concluded that the Wuhan lab is the “most likely source” of the coronavirus outbreak.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 22:30 - Watch: 'Underground Hazard' Exposed As NYC Homeless Fill Up Subway Cars Amid Pandemic
Watch: ‘Underground Hazard’ Exposed As NYC Homeless Fill Up Subway Cars Amid Pandemic
“I got to send this to the governor, let him see this shit,” a 25-year veteran of New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority said when posting an now viral video clip depicting a growing crisis in the city’s subways.
The employee, subsequently confirmed in media reports as Torry Chalmers, offered video proof that throngs of the city’s homeless are now filling up empty train cars on a regular basis.
Chalmers and other employees are demanding “hazard pay” given that the rising number of homeless filling the subways they interact with are a huge risk amid the coronavirus pandemic, also given the Big Apple has for weeks now been the global epicenter.
“This is what I got to do. I got to go to work in this,” he said in the video. “It’s not making any sense. It’s nasty, nasty.”
“People are scared when the train comes in the station,” Chalmers added. “If one car looks bad, they’ll run to another — but it’s the same problem in every car.”
“We’re out there every day putting our lives on the line… We should get hazard pay,” he asserted.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo addressed the growing crisis in the wake of growing outrage over the alarming underground hazard conditions, calling the situation “disrespectful to the essential workers who need to ride the subway system.”
Cuomo said Tuesday, “We have to have a public transportation system that is clean, where the trains are disinfected,” and added: “It’s not even safe for the homeless people to be on trains,” Cuomo added.
“We’re concerned about homeless people so we let them stay on the trains without protection in this epidemic of the COVID virus? No, we have to do better than that and we will,” the governor said.
New York and other cities, especially L.A. and San Francisco have for weeks been attempting to get a handle on the homeless crisis amid the pandemic. Recently photos of Las Vegas casino parking lots which served as makeshift homeless ‘social distancing’ outdoor sleeping venues went viral.
NY Mayor Bill de Blasio has this week called on the MTA to close subway terminals to ensure homeless don’t congregate there, and for the purpose of nightly deep disinfecting.
And Interim New York City Transit President Sarah Feinberg commented:
“Our customers shouldn’t have to board a car that multiple people using it as a shelter and as a trash receptacle or toilet.”
Since the crisis began the MTA has greatly reduced its service, also as hundreds of its personnel have been out sick with coronavirus, compounding the risk to the mass transit service and broader public; however, it’s considered that the city’s subway system which has never completely closed in the century of its existence is vital for daily transporting ‘essential’ workers.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 22:30 - "What The F**k": In Expletive-Laced Rant, Elon Musk Blasts "Fascist, Undemocratic" Shelter-In-Place Orders
“What The F**k”: In Expletive-Laced Rant, Elon Musk Blasts “Fascist, Undemocratic” Shelter-In-Place Orders
It has been almost exactly two years since Elon Musk’s infamous conference call meltdown when the Tesla CEO snapped at RBC analyst Joseph Spak for asking “boring bonehead questions” during the Q1 2018 earnings call. Today, Musk did it again only this time instead of raging at a “bonehead” question, the notoriously volatile CEO went off on a bizarre tirade, hammering an issue he has expressed substantial displeasure with in recent days:
the inability to open up the Tesla Fremont factoryCalilfornia’s shelter-in-place orders.Just hours after the Tesla CEO tweeted his best Donald Trump impression to date, screaming “FREE AMERICA NOW” clearly displeased with the ongoing state of affairs in the US virus-stricken nation…
FREE AMERICA NOW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 29, 2020
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… Elon held the Tesla earnings call where toward the end, increasingly angry, Musk unleashed a 5-minute rant complete with an f-bomb in which the CEO doubled down on his stance against the shelter-in-place orders that have gripped the United States economy in recent weeks, warning that the factory shutdowns are a “serious risk” to the electric automaker’s business.
“It will cause great harm, not just to Tesla, but to many companies,” Musk said on the call. “And while Tesla will weather the storm, there are many companies that will not. Everything people have worked for their whole life is being destroyed in real time.”
“It’s breaking people’s freedoms in ways that are horrible and wrong and not why they came to America or built this country. What the fuck. Excuse me. Outrage. Outrage.”
“Frankly, I would call it forcible imprisoning of people in their homes against all of, their constitutional rights, in my opinion” he said, and then slammed the government imposed shutdown of all non-essential businesses as undemocratic and downright “fascist.”
“If somebody wants to stay in their house, that’s great and they should be able to,” he said. “But to say that they cannot leave their house and they will be arrested if they do, this is fascist. This is not democratic, this is not freedom, give people back their goddamn freedom.”
Of course, neither the California or federal shelter-in-place guidelines penalize those who go outside with arrest. That did not prevent Musk from concluding that “the people are going to be very angry about this and are very angry.” What he meant is that he is angry because orders prevent Tesla from building cars at the Fremont facility while the shelter in place order is active.
The billionaire first said panic about the coronavirus “is dumb” on March 6, as the US first began reporting cases that have now topped 1 million. His eagerness to return back to business reemerged on March 19 when he said that “based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April.”
Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 19, 2020
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Then on Tuesday, hours before today’s TSLA earnings call Musk escalated his complaints on Twitter, and just as he yelled at someone to “FREE AMERICA NOW”, he praised Texas’ relaxation of rules starting Friday.
The irony, of course, is that Musk is calling the US government response to COVID-19 “fascist” while not only not criticizing but praising China on the same day he held a private conference call with the Chinese owners of the Shanghai Tesla plant…
.@Tesla CEO @elonmusk told Shanghai Party chief Li Qiang in a video conference Wednesday that the #gigafactory in Shanghai “performed well” during the #COVID19 assault and Tesla will expand investment in the city. pic.twitter.com/J9bcudI5W8
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) April 29, 2020
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… the same China which put hundreds of millions of people into forced quarantine, and those who violated the non-stop curfew “disappeared” forever.
The even bigger irony is that Musk could care less about US freedoms and what is democratic or fascist, when all he is truly raging about is the forced shuttering of his Fremont auto plant which he has repeatedly violated city ordinances just to keep running – while putting workers’ lived in jeopardy – in hopes of beating Wall Street estimates, just so he can keep the stock price elevated above $100 billion entitling him to a $720 million payout.
The full rant can be heard in the clip below. It begins 38:30 into the clip and lasts about 5 minutes
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 22:26 - The White House's Most Influential China Hawk Suspects COVID-19 Leaked From Wuhan Lab
The White House’s Most Influential China Hawk Suspects COVID-19 Leaked From Wuhan Lab
Casual readers of American political reporting probably wouldn’t recognize the name, but Washington reporters and other “insiders” almost certainly know not only his name, but his reputation for being perhaps the most influential White House figure that most Americans haven’t heard of.
His name is Matthew Pottinger, and in addition to serving as Deputy National Security Advisor in the Trump Administration, he has served as a top advisor on China policy and “the White Houses foremost China expert”, an expertise Pottinger honed while reporting for the Wall Street Journal from Beijing, where he learned the perfected his language skills.
And in a profile published in Wednesday’s paper, the Washington Post explored Pottinger’s rise to becoming one of the most influential foreign policy voices in the West Wing began in the late 1990s, when he moved to Beijing to cover a rising China as a foreign correspondent.
After 9/11 and the start of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Pottinger decided to leave WSJ at the age of 31 to enlist in the Marines.
He was modestly older than many of his fellow recruits, but in an op-ed published explaining his decision, Pottinger recounted how seeing up close how Beijing treats its citizens helped instill in him a newfound respect for the US, and an intense wariness of the CCP. In one incident, Pottinger said, he was punched in the face by a government goon who attacked him while he was reporting on some sketchy business dealings involving a Chinese company.
He also covered the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004.
But living in China also shows you what a nondemocratic country can do to its citizens. I’ve seen protesters tackled and beaten by plainclothes police in Tiananmen Square, and I’ve been videotaped by government agents while I was talking to a source. I’ve been arrested and forced to flush my notes down a toilet to keep the police from getting them, and I’ve been punched in the face in a Beijing Starbucks by a government goon who was trying to keep me from investigating a Chinese company’s sale of nuclear fuel to other countries.
To give credit where credit is due, WaPo was one of the first MSM organizations to seriously consider the possibility that the novel coronavirus could have leaked from a lab in Wuhan, a theory that Pottinger has been investigating since the outbreak began. Surprisingly, the paper reports that Pottinger was one of the first Trump Administration officials to push the president to call the virus the “Wuhan Virus” instead of the coronavirus, a move that was blasted as “racist” by both China and many American leftists. That recommendation, WaPo said, was based on intel obtained by Pottinger claiming Beijing was in the early stages of a misinformation campaign to try and deflect blame for the outbreak to the US.
Pottinger’s push to use the term “Wuhan virus” has reverberated. Trump, eager to deflect blame of his own handling of the virus, escalated the rhetoric by using “Chinese virus.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo angered allies in March when he pressured Group of Seven nations to sign a collective statement employing “Wuhan virus,” a demand they refused. Liberals called the language racist.
To Pottinger, the critics missed the point: China’s state media had named the virus for Wuhan for weeks before suddenly pressuring the World Health Organization to formally name it covid-19. Beijing needed to own it.
And while Pete Navarro is still unquestionably the administration’s most visible China hawk, Pottinger is heavily involved in the Trump Administration’s plan to chart a new course for the US-China relationship that would take us closer to a “decoupling”. Globalists cringe at the thought of untangling the complicated web of interconnected economic interests tying the two countries together. But the virus has undermined the view that globalization is inevitable and de-globalization would be inherently catastrophic.
When asked who is responsible for the severity of the global coronavirus outbreak, Pottinger insists that China is to blame. Because by the time the US was receiving the first information about the virus from China in January, it was already likely too late – something that surveillance testing, as well as reports that the earliest COVID-19 death might have happened as early as Feb. 6, seem to suggest.
Pottinger believes Beijing’s handling of the virus has been “catastrophic” and “the whole world is the collateral damage of China’s internal governance problems,” said a person familiar with his thinking, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss his views.
After first joining the Trump administration in 2017 as senior director of the National Security Council’s Asia division, Pottinger, 46, is now a pivotal player in the Trump administration’s attempts to reorient U.S. policy on China toward a more confrontational approach, according to multiple people familiar with his role.
WaPo noted in a lengthy piece explaining the ‘failings’ of the Trump Administration during the early days of the outbreak that Pottinger was the first to push for travel bans from China and Europe. Trump’s decision to drag his feet on the European bans might have directly contributed to the explosion of cases in New York. One study found similarities between the coronavirus strain spreading in New York, and a strain spreading in Northern Italy that researchers said could explain the excessive mortality in both areas.
Most importantly, Pottinger has pushed intelligence agencies to explore the theory that the virus may have been accidentally released from a Wuhan lab, a suspicion that was borne out in a recent government report.
Behind the scenes, Pottinger has pushed intelligence agencies to explore the theory, popular among conservatives, that the pathogen was accidentally released by a virology lab in Wuhan, rather than a wild animal market. So far, that theory has not been proved, but Pottinger believes there is more circumstantial evidence in favor of the lab explanation, said people with knowledge of his views.
He and like-minded State Department aides have warned outside China experts, who had criticized the administration’s use of “Wuhan virus,” that they should remain skeptical of Beijing’s motives. Their message amounted to a warning that more damaging information would come out about Beijing’s handling of the pandemic, according to four people on the calls.
Long before the outbreak, Pottinger reportedly kept a ‘scorecard’ in his office with a ‘highly detailed’ accounting of all the ways China is undermining the US.
As Asia director, Pottinger kept in his office a large whiteboard mapped out with a highly detailed accounting of China’s growing global influence. The diagram was labeled with military-style buzzwords such as “Lines of Effort” and “Strategic Goals,” according to people who saw it.
A former NSC colleague called it a scorecard of all the ways “the Chinese Communist Party was attacking the West — and how we could fight back.”
During a recent security forum, Pottinger was asked to explain why he supports ‘decoupling’ the US and China. His answer:
“Decoupling,” he replied, “is when you have a Great Firewall where not a single Western Internet company has been able to prosper or survive in China, by design. When Christian churches are torn down and ethnic minorities are put into reeducation camps, that’s ‘decoupling.’ So the ‘decoupling’ is something that’s been underway for quite a long time – and it is not driven by the United States.”
For all the pro-China liberals in the US, the message from Pottinger is clear: If you spend more time criticizing ‘oppression’ by the US government, you should try living in Beijing for a few years. That should be enough to change your mind.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 22:25 - 6 Central Banks & The Ponzi Scheme That Will Bankrupt The World
6 Central Banks & The Ponzi Scheme That Will Bankrupt The World
Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,
The destiny of the world is now in the hands of 6 central banks, Fed, ECB, BoE (England), PBOC (China), BoJ (Japan), SNB (Swiss). This in itself bodes extremely badly for the global financial system. This is like putting the villains in charge of the judicial system. For decades these central banks have totally abused their power and taken control of the world monetary system for the benefit of their banker friends and in some cases their private shareholders.
The central banks have totally corrupted and destroyed the financial system, by printing money and extending credit that doesn’t exist. Everyone knows that creating money out of thin air makes the money totally worthless. These bankers know, that if you stand next to the printing press and get the money first, it does have some value before it circulates. And this is exactly what they have done. Once the money reaches the people, it devalues rapidly. As Mayer Amschel Rothschild said over 200 years ago:
“Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws.”
WORTHLESS MONEY PRINTING LEADS TO WORTHLESS ASSETS
But the bankers are not just in charge of the printing press, they are also in control of the cost of money in the form of interest rates. By manipulating rates, they are setting aside the natural laws of supply and demand. So they can print unlimited amounts of money and price it at 0%. The effect of this is a debt bubble that can never be repaid and an asset bubble that is so fake that not a single asset is worth a fraction of the value it is priced at.
The central banks are now panicking and are creating trillions of dollars, euros etc. Add to that additional bank lending and government debt and we are in the tens of trillions.
Just looking at the 6 biggest banks mentioned above, their balance sheets have gone up by $3 trillion from $21 trillion at the end of February 2020 to $24T today.
But this is just the beginning. We must remember that it wasn’t the Coronavirus that started the money printing. It all began back in late July 2019 when the ECB warned the world that something was seriously wrong by saying, we will do whatever it takes. A few weeks later the Fed started daily Repos of $100s of billions. This was the time when serious problems in the financial system started.
$5 TRILLION CREATED WITH ZERO INTRINSIC VALUE
At the end of Sep 2019, the Fed balance sheet was $3.8T and today it is $6.6T, an increase of $2.8T most of which occurred since March 2020. During the same period (Sep 2019-April 2020) US debt grew by $2T from $22.7T to $24.7T.
So between the Fed and the US government, they have created almost $5T since the end of Sep 2019. Most of this increase has taken place in April 2020. Remember that this is not real money but just money fabricated out of thin air. It involved no work, no service in return and no production of goods. Thus this money has ZERO intrinsic value. It is just a computer entry of one 5 and 12 zeros. Therefore the recipients of these funds are getting fake and worthless money.
WHY DOESN’T THE FED JUST PRINT THE ANNUAL US GDP OF $21.5T
If the Fed or the US government claims that they are issuing real money that has a real value, why don’t they just print $21.5 trillion annually. This equates to US annual GDP. So instead of having to work and produce goods, every US adult and child is just given $65,000 each. ($21.5T divided by 331 million population). Nobody would need to work and everyone can just spend the money as they like and live in total bliss just like in Shangri-La. Obviously someone would need to produce food and provide essential services but that could all be bought in from low cost countries.
If the US government and the Fed really believe that they are solving all problems by printing money, why don’t they then go full out and print the annual GDP. But why then stop at $21.5T which is the current GDP? Why not print $43T to double the standard of living. Or why not go to $100T so everyone can really get wealthy. If the current system of printing $ trillions or even $10s of trillions works, I would like the Fed and the government to explain why they can’t print $100s of trillions. Are they saying that printing $10T represents real money but not $100T which would be fake? Can any serious observer believe that these 6 central banks will save the world by printing worthless money? How far do they think they can take their Ponzi scheme before the world discovers their bluff?
FED TO PRINT $9.5 TRILLION AND BUY ALL THE GOLD IN THE WORLD
To test the value of the printed money, I suggest that the Fed prints $9.5 trillion and buys all the gold in the world, including jewellery, of 170,000 tonnes at the current price of $55.6 million per tonne. If they don’t understand what will happen, I can tell them. They would have real problems getting hold of 1 tonne of physical gold at that price. By the time they buy the second tonne, the market will value the dollar at its intrinsic value of ZERO and gold measured in worthless dollars will go to infinity.
THE END OF THE DOLLAR
The Fed is of course not stupid. They understand the consequences of their actions. They know they are playing a very dangerous game that could fail at any time. They are also aware that the dollar since 1971 has fallen 98% in real terms, which is versus gold. By introducing the Petrodollar combined with policing the global financial system, the US has managed to maintain an artificially high value of their currency for decades. But that is now coming to an end. The combination of collapsing oil prices and countries like China and Russia abandoning the dollar will start the dollar ball rolling. Also, the unlimited printing that the US has started will soon accelerate as companies and financial institutions default, leading to a dollar crash.
THE CURRENCY RACE TO THE BOTTOM
In a few months time, nobody will want to hold dollars as the greenback collapses. The problem is that there is not a single solid currency today. The Euro is toast and so is the Yen and the Pound. These countries are all into massive money printing as a result of the current global crisis. So what about the Swiss franc. It has always been seen as a safehaven in periods of crisis. Well, the Swiss might be a currency to flee to for a very brief period. But if we analyse Switzerland’s National Bank, the SNB, as well as the Swiss banking system we will find big problems here like anywhere else in the world.
As Swiss I don’t like criticising a country which has the best political system in the world and has had very sound finances and a strong currency. But sadly the conservative Swiss banker is gone and the SNB and the whole Swiss banking system are taking risks that are hair-raising.
SWISS NATIONAL BANK – THE WORLD’S BIGGEST HEDGE FUND
If we start with the SNB, it has a balance sheet which is CHF 852B ($878B) or 122% of Swiss GDP. This is the most leveraged balance sheet of any major central bank. But not only that, if we analyse the holdings of the SNB, we find that it is the biggest hedge fund in the world. Just over 76% of the holdings are in US dollars and Yen with 24% in other currencies like Yen, GBP and CAD. Almost $100B are in US stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google etc.
So we find that the SNB is a massive speculator in currencies with 92% of the assets in non Swiss franc investments. This is a massive bet by a national bank against its own currency. The official reason why they are doing it is to keep the Swiss franc low against its main trading nations, the EU and the US. But it is extremely dangerous and irresponsible against the country and the shareholders to leverage the balance sheet to this extent. The biggest shareholders are the Cantons (local States) who own 55%. In Q1 2020, the SNB lost CHF38B ($39B) on its investments, mainly in the US stock market. The Cantons are dependent on the dividends from the SNB so this is a big blow.
But this is just the beginning for the SNB. When the US stock market falls another 30% or more, which is likely, the losses will mount. But still worse are the currency positions. For every 10% the dollar and euro fall against the Swiss, it means another $80B loss for the SNB. That will of course lead to more Swiss money printing and the Swiss franc weakening which in theory could offset the currency losses. But it is difficult to predict who wins the currency race to the bottom. Most likely is that the dollar will win closely followed by the euro and yen. And if that will be the case, the SNB will incur substantial losses before the Swiss franc loses value.
It is not only the SNB which is a timebomb. So is the Swiss banking system which is 5x Swiss GDP. That is too big for a small country when debt markets come under pressure, which is already starting to happen. Relative to the size of the country the SNB will have to print massive amounts of Swiss francs which will have zero value just like all printed money.
The conclusion is clear. No banking system in the world is safe, including Switzerland’s. So anyone who holds major assets within the financial system be it cash or securities, is exposed to an unacceptable risk in coming months and years.
MARKETS
Stocks are in a correction up in a secular downtrend which started in February. In the Dow we might be near the end of this correction or it could last slightly longer. But the risk is to the downside and anyone invested in the stock markets is likely to lose the majority of his wealth in coming months and years.
Bonds are extremely vulnerable as credit deteriorates on a daily basis. All debt will come under pressure including Sovereign. Central banks will do what they can to hold rates down but in the end the market will win as bonds sell off and rates climb rapidly.
GOLD
Gold (and silver) will be the obvious winner as currency debasement accelerates. My 18 year old target of $10,000 in today’s money is virtually guaranteed.
The chart below shows gold against US money supply (FMQ – Fiat Money Quantity). It shows that gold is as cheap today as it was in 1970 when the price was $35 or in 2000 when gold was $290.
With massive pressure in the physical market where both the LBMA bullion banks and Comex are unable to meet their obligations to deliver physical gold, it is only a matter of time before gold breaks out properly. I don’t like making sensational forecasts of the gold price since that attracts the wrong buyers. Still 10x today’s price or $17,000 is certainly realistic with just normal inflation. The attached chart by goldchartsrus confirms that level. Gold adjusted for real inflation would be at $18,100 to be equal to the 1980 top of $850.
Hyperinflation will of course add many zeros to the gold price even though that price would be meaningless since it would only reflect the debasement of currencies. But it won’t be meaningless to the people who are still holding on to worthless dollars or euros instead of holding the only money that has survived in history which is gold.
Just speak to people who have lived in Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Hungary or Yugoslavia to take recent hyperinflationary examples. These people lost all their money and so will the ones who are not protected against the coming hyperinflation.
Remember that hyperinflation does not arise as a result of demand led increases in prices but as a result of collapsing currencies. And as I have explained above, this is what we will see next as money printing accelerates.
Physical gold must not be seen as a speculative investment but as the only money that has survived throughout history and maintained its purchasing power. So gold is insurance and gold is wealth protection. That is why we must hold gold against a financial system and currency system which will not survive in their present form.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 22:05 - China PMIs Expand For 2nd Month After February Crash, But Real-Time Indicators Paint Different Picture
China PMIs Expand For 2nd Month After February Crash, But Real-Time Indicators Paint Different Picture
And just like that, China’s February swoon is ancient history.
After Beijing reported a dramatic rebound in March PMIs from the February crash which saw both the manufacturing and service PMIs tumble to record lows, it was virtually guaranteed that the April data would confirm a continuation of China’s “solid recovery” trend.
After all, it has now become a political race between China and the US over whose economy is more unscathed as a result of the coronavirus pandemic as the Global Times editor in chief Hu Xijin made abundantly clear today when in response to the latest US GDP print, tweeted “Already fell 4.8% in Q1, will definitely be worse in Q2. How will President Trump explain? I guess he would say the figure is better than expected and is so much better than any other country in the world.When China sees positive growth rate in Q2,he would say the number is fake.”
Already fell 4.8% in Q1, will definitely be worse in Q2. How will President Trump explain? I guess he would say the figure is better than expected and is so much better than any other country in the world.When China sees positive growth rate in Q2,he would say the number is fake. pic.twitter.com/PN10JicZKI
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) April 29, 2020
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Well, Trump certainly wouldn’t be the first to accuse China of fabricating numbers, especially in light of the latest official PMI numbers of out China which showed manufacturing dip from 52.0 to 50.8, missing expectations of 51.0 yet still in expansion territory; at the same time the Nonmanufacturing PMI printed at 53.2, up from 52.3, and well above the 52.5 consensus estimate.
But would Trump be right if accusing China of also fabricating its PMIs which show the economy now well in expansion territory for a second month? For the answer we go to real-time activity trackers which have become so popular ever since the breakout of the coronavirus pandemic. What they show is anything but an economy that is expanding.
First, according to channel checks, we can clearly see that the latest activity in such sectors are hotels, catering and entertanment is running far below indicative 2019 levels, with just mining and real estate roughly comparable to year ago levels.
To be sure, while daily coal consumption is indeed on par with 2019…
… transportation – both ground and by air – across China remains a pale shadow of 2019 levels.
More ominously, the all-important for China’s trade economy container throughput at major port appears to still be far below last year levels.
And most concerning of all for the country that still barely has a functioning bankruptcy process, is that the number of bankruptcies filings is surging:
Superimposing China and the US in industrial and consumer activity shows that while China is well ahead in terms of activity recovery, it has a ways to go before it catches up to 2019 levels. As for the US, it certainly has a ways to go.
The final proof that China has a ways to go before it recovers, let alone is in “expansion”, come from a handful of other high-frequency indicators as shown below.
Conclusion: China’s official PMI numbers are about as credible as its coronavirus “data.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 21:42 - 'War On Cash' Is Kicking Into Overdrive
‘War On Cash’ Is Kicking Into Overdrive
Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,
In the depths of the 2008–09 financial crisis, Obama’s first chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, remarked that one should never let a good crisis go to waste. You probably recall him saying that.
He was referring to the fact that crises may be temporary but hidden agendas are permanent.
The global elites and deep state actors always have a laundry list of programs and regulations they can’t wait to put into practice. They know that most of these are deeply unpopular and they could never get away with putting them into practice during ordinary times.
Yet when a crisis hits, citizens are desperate for fast action and quick solutions. The elites bring forward their rescue packages but then use these as Trojan horses to sneak their wish list inside.
The War on Cash Is Decades Old
The USA Patriot Act that passed after 9/11 is a good example. Some counterterrorist measures were needed, of course. But the Treasury had a long-standing wish list involving reporting cash transactions and limiting citizens’ ability to get cash.
They plugged that wish list into the Patriot Act and we’ve been living with the results ever since, even though 9/11 is long in the past.
Obviously, the effort to eliminate cash is hardly new. It has been going on for many years and in many forms.
The U.S. discontinued the use of large-denomination bills in the late 1960s. Until 1969, $500, $1,000, $5,000 and even $10,000 bills were issued, even though they were printed decades earlier.
Today the largest bill is a $100 bill, but it has lost 80% of its purchasing power since 1968, so it’s really just a $20 bill from those days. Europe has ended the 500-euro note and today the largest note in euros is 200 euros.
Ignore the Official Reasons
Harvard professor Ken Rogoff has a book called The Curse of Cash, which calls for the complete elimination of cash. Many Bitcoin groupies say the same thing. Central banks and the IMF are all working on new digital currencies today.
The reasons for this are said to include attacks on tax evasion, terrorism and criminal activity. There’s some truth to these claims. Cash is anonymous, so it can’t be tracked.
But the real reason is because the elimination of cash would allow elites to impose negative interest rates, account freezes and confiscation.
They can’t do that as long as you can go to your bank and withdraw your cash. That’s the key.
In other words, it’s much easier for them to control your money if they first herd you into a digital cattle pen. That’s their true objective and all the other reasons are just a smokescreen.
And now, predictably, the latest attack on cash comes courtesy of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crisis Meets Opportunity
This crisis is even larger and scarier than the 2008 crisis, which gives elites even more opportunity to ram their agendas through without serious opposition. They don’t intend to let it go to waste.
Sure enough, government agents and tech vendors are now claiming that cash is “dangerous” because it could contain traces of the coronavirus.
While that’s not impossible, it’s highly unlikely and no more likely than getting the virus from 100 other sources including package deliveries and shopping carts.
Should we ban cardboard boxes and shopping carts too?
If you’re really concerned about getting coronavirus from cash, it’s simple to wear sanitary gloves during any transactions (I do). Then put the cash to one side. The virus cannot live more than 10 hours or so on an inorganic surface. After a while, your cash is safe.
But if you get scared into giving up cash because of COVID-19, then don’t complain when you find that your financial freedom is also gone when the world moves to 100% digital money.
Because that’s the endgame here.
How to Protect Your Wealth
The time to protect yourself is now. The best way is to keep a portion of your wealth outside of the banking system.
I strongly recommend that you own physical gold (and silver). I recommend you allocate 10% of your investable assets to gold. If you really wanted to be aggressive, maybe 20%. But no more.
Just make sure you don’t store it in a bank, because it would be subject to confiscation. That defeats the whole purpose of having this sort of protection in the first place.
One Small Positive
As bad as the COVID-19 crisis is, and it is that bad, there’s one small positive to come out of it: It’s finally snapped investors out of their complacency regarding gold.
I recommended gold at $1,100 per ounce, $1,200 per ounce, $1,300 per ounce, $1,400 per ounce, $1,500 per ounce and so on… you get the picture.
But few people cared. They just yawned. Now that gold is $1,750 per ounce (up 75% since 2015), everyone wants gold!
There’s only one problem. You may not be able to get any.
That’s also something I predicted. I said years ago that when you most want your gold, you won’t be able to get it because everyone will want it at the same time and the dealers will be back-ordered and the mints and refiners will shut down.
Now it appears that’s exactly what’s happening.
The U.S. Mint at West Point is closing. That mint produces 1-ounce American Gold Eagle coins, so this will add to the shortage of Gold Eagles. The Royal Canadian Mint also closed for coin production temporarily a few weeks ago.
Gold refiners in Switzerland are either closed or are operating on reduced hours. Gold logistics firms like Brink’s are also cutting back hours and reducing distribution of gold bullion.
You Still Have a Chance
It’s still possible to find some gold bars or coins from dealers who have inventory, but delays are long and commissions are high. The scarcity factor will only get worse as gold prices continue their rally in this third great bull market in history that began in 2015.
Gold is difficult to get now but not impossible. If you don’t have yours yet, don’t wait any longer.
If you have to pay a bit of a premium for physical gold over the officially listed gold price, don’t worry about that. It means nothing in the long run.
I see gold going to at least $10,000 an ounce ultimately, so paying a little more right now is not an issue. It’s just an indication of the skyrocketing demand for physical gold right now.
When the next panic hits, and it will hit, there won’t be any gold available at any price.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 21:25 - COVID-19 Rips Through Marine Boot Camp, Dozens Of New Infections
COVID-19 Rips Through Marine Boot Camp, Dozens Of New Infections
We previously reported on the growing controversy over US defense readiness as relates to continuing US armed services boot camps across the country.
Top Pentagon brass last month said keeping entry-level recruit training operational is essential to national security amid growing concerns the COVID-19 pandemic could spread at the military training centers:
The Pentagon has decided that keeping all the services’ entry-level training camps up and running is critical to national security. The decision was reportedly at odds with what some service leaders recommended: a temporary pause on recruit shipping until the threat of the coronavirus lessened.
Defense Department officials overrode the recommendations from senior military leaders to halt training for 30 days, The Washington Post reported March 16.
Recruits and drill instructors wearing face masks at Marine Corps Recruit Depot, San Diego. Image source: US Marine Corps/Marine Corps Times. However, beginning early this month the main military branches, starting with the Army and Marines, began “pausing” the shipping of new incoming recruits to boot camps on the East and West coasts.
But current ongoing boot camps would continue on, according to the late March decision, with the Pentagon saying it would frequently revisit the “pause” in additional trainees. Since then, the national Marine boot camps in San Diego and Parris Island, South Carolina have resumed receiving new Marine recruits, but with a mandatory 14-day isolation period upon arrival.
But as military analysis news site Connecting Vets Radio reports, COVID-19 has now hit Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego hard:
Almost four dozen recruits in San Diego have tested positive for the virus and have been quarantined for two weeks, according to the Marine Corps.
The increase in COVID-19 positive recruits is related to the Marine Corps conducting more testing for the virus.
“We are experiencing challenging and unprecedented times…,” a video message from the Marine Corps top command said.
In the face of COVID-19, @CMC_MarineCorps General David H. Berger and @USMCSgtMaj Troy E. Black deliver a message for future Marines, recruits, officer candidates, Marines and their families. pic.twitter.com/T3l8DBw12c
— USMC Recruiting (@USMarineCorps) April 22, 2020
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All new COVID-19 cases are in one Marine “company” but training has still been halted broadly, nor is there a current pause in new incoming recruits, making for an increasingly dangerous and tense situation concerning the potentially deadly disease.
Spokesman for the recruit depot, Capt. Martin Harris told Marine Corps Times, “While these positive cases are currently isolated to one company and in quarantine, the increase of asymptomatic positive tests has prompted the testing of all personnel in quarantine and all recruits that arrive on the depot in the future, whether or not they present symptoms,” he explained.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 21:05 - Unsealed FBI Handwritten Notes, Emails Reveal Agents Plotted Perjury Trap On Flynn
Unsealed FBI Handwritten Notes, Emails Reveal Agents Plotted Perjury Trap On Flynn
Update (2030ET): Are we finally going to see some consequences for a deep state lackey?
Shortly after the post below was completed, US Congresswoman Elise Stefanik tweeted the following:
Devastating flashback clip of Comey just aired on @marthamaccallum show.
When asked who went around the protocol of going through the WH Counsel’s office and instead decided to send the FBI agents into White House for the Flynn perjury trap…
…Comey smugly responds “I sent them.”
Here is the clip:
@comey is preparing for prison and hoping to avoid the death penalty. Will Obama be brought down too?
— 🇺🇸 Beyond Reproach 🇺🇸 (@BeyondReproach5) April 30, 2020
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Will Comey do time?
Imagine having your life and reputation ruined by rogue US govt. officials. Then years later when the plot finally comes to light the first thing you do is post an American flag. This is the guy they wanted you to believe was a Russian asset. 🙄 https://t.co/TI768Vijn2
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) April 30, 2020
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* * *
U.S. District Court Judge Emmet G. Sullivan unsealed four pages of stunning FBI emails and handwritten notes Wednesday, regarding former Trump National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, which allegedly reveal the retired three star general was targeted by senior FBI officials for prosecution, stated Flynn’s defense attorney Sidney Powell. Those notes and emails revealed that the retired three-star general appeared to be set up for a perjury trap by the senior members of the bureau and agents charged with investigating the now-debunked allegations that President Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia, said Sidney Powell, the defense lawyer representing Flynn.
Moreover, the Department of Justice release 11 more pages of documents Wednesday afternoon, according to Powell.
While we await Judge Sullivan’s order to unseal the exhibits from Friday, the government has just provided 11 more pages even more appalling that the Friday production. We have requested the redaction process begin immediately.@GenFlynn @BarbaraRedgate pic.twitter.com/YPEjZWbdvo
— Sidney Powell 🇺🇸⭐⭐⭐ (@SidneyPowell1) April 29, 2020
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“What is especially terrifying is that without the integrity of Attorney General Bill Barr and U.S. Attorney Jensen, we still would not have this clear exculpatory information as Mr. Van Grack and the prosecutors have opposed every request we have made,” said Powell.
It appears, based on the notes and emails that the Department of Justice was determined at the time to prosecute Flynn, regardless of what they found, Powell said.
“The FBI pre-planned a deliberate attack on Gen. Flynn and willfully chose to ignore mention of Section 1001 in the interview despite full knowledge of that practice,” Powell said in a statement.
“The FBI planned it as a perjury trap at best and in so doing put it in writing stating ‘what is our goal? Truth/ Admission or to get him to lie so we can prosecute him or get him fired.”
The documents, reviewed and obtained by SaraACarter.com, reveal that senior FBI officials discussed strategies for targeting and setting up Flynn, prior to interviewing him at the White House on Jan. 24, 2017. It was that interview at the White House with former FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok and FBI Special Agent Joe Pientka that led Flynn, now 61, to plead guilty after months of pressure by prosecutors, financial strain and threats to prosecute his son.
Powell filed a motion earlier this year to withdraw Flynn’s guilty plea and to dismiss his case for egregious government misconduct. Flynn pleaded guilty in December 2017, under duress by government prosecutors, to lying to investigators about his conversations with Russian diplomat Sergey Kislyak about sanctions on Russia. This January, however, he withdrew his guilty plea in the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. He stated that he was “innocent of this crime” and was coerced by the FBI and prosecutors under threats that would charge his son with a crime. He filed to withdraw his guilty plea after DOJ prosecutors went back on their word and asked the judge to sentence Flynn to up to six months in prison, accusing him of not cooperating in another case against his former partner. Then prosecutors backtracked and said probation would be fine but by then Powell, his attorney, had already filed to withdraw his guilty plea.
The documents reveal that prior to the interview with Flynn in January, 2017 the FBI had already come to the conclusion that Flynn was guilty and beyond that the officials were working together to see how best to corner the 33-year military veteran and former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. The bureau deliberately chose not to show him the evidence of his phone conversation to help him in his recollection of events, which is standard procedure. Even stranger, the agents that interviewed Flynn later admitted that they didn’t believe he lied during the interview with them.
Powell told this reporter last week that the documents produced by the government are “stunning Brady evidence’ proving Flynn was deliberately set up and framed by corrupt agents at the top of the FBI to target President Trump.
She noted earlier this week in her motion that the evidence “also defeats any argument that the interview of Mr. Flynn on January 24 was material to any ‘investigation.’ The government has deliberately suppressed this evidence from the inception of this prosecution—knowing there was no crime by Mr. Flynn.”
Powell told this reporter Wednesday that the order by Sullivan to unseal the documents in Exhibit 3 in the supplement to Flynn’s motion to dismiss for egregious government conduct is exposing the truth to the public. She said it’s “easy to see that he was set up and that Mr. Flynn was the insurance policy for the FBI.” Powell’s reference to the ‘insurance policy,’ is based on one of the thousands of texts exchanged by former FBI lawyer Lisa Page and her then-lover former FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok.
In an Aug. 15, 2016, text from Strzok to Page he states, “I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s (former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe) office — that there’s no way he gets elected — but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before 40.”
The new documents were turned over to Powell, by U.S. Attorney Timothy Shea. They were discovered after an extensive review by the attorneys appointed by U.S. Attorney General William Barr to review Flynn’s case, which includes U.S. Attorney of St. Louis, Jeff Jensen.
In one of the emails dated Jan. 23, 2017, FBI lawyer Lisa Page, who at the time was having an affair with Strzok and who worked closely with him on the case discussed the charges the bureau would bring on Flynn before the actual interview at the White House took place. Those email exchanges were prepared for former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, who was fired by the DOJ for lying multiple times to investigators with DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s office.
Former FBI Director James Comey, who was fired by President Trump for his conduct, revealed during an interview with Nicolle Wallace last year that he sent the FBI agents to interview Flynn at the White House under circumstances he would have never done to another administration.
“I probably wouldn’t have done or maybe gotten away with in a more organized investigation, a more organized administration,” Comey said. “In the George W. Bush administration … or the Obama administration, two men that all of us, perhaps, have increased appreciation for over the last two years.”
In the Jan 23, email Page asks Strzok the day before he interviews Flynn at the White House:
“I have a question for you. Could the admonition re 1001 be given at the beginning at the interview? Or does it have to come following a statement which agents believe to be false? Does the policy speak to that? (I feel bad that I don’t know this but I don’t remember ever having to do this! Plus I’ve only charged it once in the context of lying to a federal probation officer). It seems to be if the former, then it would be an easy way to just casually slip that in.
“Of course as you know sir, federal law makes it a crime to…”
Strzok’s response:
I haven’t read the policy lately, but if I recall correctly, you can say it at any time. I’m 90 percent sure about that, but I can check in the am.
In the motion filed earlier this week, Powell stated “since August 2016 at the latest, partisan FBI and DOJ leaders conspired to destroy Mr. Flynn. These documents show in their own handwriting and emails that they intended either to create an offense they could prosecute or at least get him fired. Then came the incredible malfeasance of Mr. Van Grack’s and the SCO’s prosecution despite their knowledge there was no crime by Mr. Flynn.”
Attached to the email is handwritten notes regarding Flynn that are stunning on their face. It is lists of how the agents will guide him in an effort to get him to trip up on his answers during their questioning and what charges they could bring against him.
“If we get him to admit to breaking the Logan Act, give facts to DOJ & have them decide,” state the handwritten notes.
“Or if he initially lies, then we present him (not legible) & he admits it, document for DOJ, & let them decide how to address it.”
The next two points reveal that the agents were concerned about how their interview with Flynn would be perceived saying “if we’re seen as playing games, WH (White House) will be furious.”
“Protect our institution by not playing games,” the last point on the first half of the hand written notes state.
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From the handwritten note:
Afterwards:
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interview
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I agreed yesterday that we shouldn’t show Flynn (redacted) if he didn’t admit
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I thought @ it last night, I believe we should rethink this
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What is (not legible) ? Truth/admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?
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we regularly show subjects evidence, with the goal of getting them to admit their wrongdoing
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I don’t see how getting someone to admit their wrongdoing is going easy on him
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If we get him to admit to breaking the Logan Act, give facts to DOJ & have them decide
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Or if he initially lies, then we present him (not legible) & he admits it, document for DOJ, & let them decide how to address it
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If we’re seen as playing games, WH will be furious
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Protect our institution by not playing games
(Left column)
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we have case on Flynn & Russians
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Our goal is to (not legible)
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Our goal is to determine if Mike Flynn is going to tell the truth or if he lies @ relationship w/ Russians
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can quote (redacted)
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Shouldn’t (redacted
Review (not legible) stand alone
It appears evident from an email from former FBI agent Strzok, who interviewed Flynn at the White House to then FBI General Counsel James Baker, who is no longer with the FBI and was himself under investigation for leaking alleged national security information to the media.
The email was a series of questions to prepare McCabe for his phone conversation with Flynn on the day the agents went to interview him at the White House. These questions would be questions that Flynn may ask McCabe before sending the agents over to interview him.
Email from Peter Strzok, cc’d to FBI General Counsel James Baker: (January 24, 2017)
I’m sure he’s thought through these, but for DD’s (referencing Deputy Director Andrew McCabe) consideration about how to answer in advance of his call with Flynn:
Am I in trouble?
Am I the subject of an investigation?
Is it a criminal investigation?
Is it an espionage investigation? Do I need an attorney? Do I need to tell Priebus? The President?
Will you tell Priebus? The President? Will you tell the WH what I tell you?
What happens to the information/who will you tell what I tell you? Will you need to interview other people?
Will our interview be released publically? Will the substance of our interview be released?
How long will this take (depends on his cooperation – I’d plan 45 minutes)? Can we do this over the phone?
I can explain all this right now, I did this, this, this [do you shut him down? Hear him out? Conduct the interview if he starts talking? Do you want another agent/witness standing by in case he starts doing this?]
Thanks,
Pete
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 20:45 -
- "Holy God. We're About To Lose Everything" – Pandemic Crushes Overleveraged Airbnb Superhosts
“Holy God. We’re About To Lose Everything” – Pandemic Crushes Overleveraged Airbnb Superhosts
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” as Mark Twain is often reputed to have said. Before the 2007-2008 GFC, people built real estate portfolios based around renters. We all know what happened there; once consumers got pinched in the GFC, rent payments couldn’t be made, and it rippled down the chain and resulted in landlords foreclosing on properties. Now a similar event is underway, that is, overleveraged Airbnb Superhosts, who own portfolios of rental properties built on debt, are now starting to blow up after the pandemic has left them incomeless for months and unable to service mortgage debt.
We have described the financial troubles that were ahead for Superhosts in late March after noticing nationwide lockdowns led to a crash not just in the tourism and hospitality industries, but also a plunge in Airbnb bookings. It was to our surprise that Airbnb’s management understood many of their Superhosts were overleveraged and insolvent, which forced the company to quickly erect a bailout fund for Superhosts that would cover part of their mortgage payments in April.
The Wall Street Journal has done the groundwork by interviewing Superhosts that are seeing their mini-empires of short-term rental properties built on debt implode as the “magic money” dries up.
Cheryl Dopp,54, has a small portfolio of Airbnb properties with monthly mortgage payments totaling around $22,000. She said the increasing rental income of adding properties to the portfolio would offset the growing debt. When the pandemic struck, she said $10,000 in rental income evaporated overnight.
“I made a bargain with the devil,” she said while referring to her financial misery of being overleveraged and incomeless.
Dopp said when the pandemic lockdowns began, “I thought, ‘Holy God. We’re about to lose everything.'”
Market-research firm AirDNA LLC said $1.5 billion in bookings have vanished since mid-March. Airbnb gave all hosts a refund, along with Superhosts, a bailout (in Airbnb terms they called it a “grant”).
“Hosts should’ve always been prepared for this income to go away,” said Gina Marotta, a principal at Argentia Group Inc., which does credit analysis on real estate loans. “Instead, they built an expensive lifestyle feeding off of it.”
We noted that last month, “Of the four million Airbnb hosts across the world, 10% are considered “Superhosts,” and many have taken out mortgages to accumulate properties to build rental portfolios.”
Airbnb spokesman Nick Papas said the decline in bookings and slump in the tourism and travel industry is “temporary: Travel will bounce back and Airbnb hosts—the vast majority of whom have just one listing—will continue to welcome guests and generate income.”
Papas’ optimism about a V-shaped recovery has certainly not been echoed in the petroleum and aviation industry. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun warned on Tuesday that air travel growth might not return to pre-corona levels for years. Fewer people traveling is more bad news for Airbnb hosts that a slump could persist for years, leading to the eventual deleveraging of properties.
AirDNA has determined that a third of Airbnb’s US hosts have one property. Another third have two and 24 properties and get ready for this: a third have more than 24.
Startups such as Sonder Corp. and Lyric Hospitality Inc. manage properties for hosts that have 25+ properties. Many of these companies have furloughed or laid off staff in April.
Jennifer Kelleher-Hazlett of Clawson, Michigan, spent $380,000 on two properties in 2018. She and her husband borrowed $100,000 to furnish each. Rental income would net up to $7,000 per month from Airbnb after mortgage payments, which would supplement her income as a part-time pharmacist and husband’s work in academia.
Before the virus struck, both were expecting to buy more homes – now they can’t make the payments on their Airbnb properties because rental income has collapsed. “We’re either borrowing more or defaulting,” she said.
Here’s another Airbnb horror story via The Journal:
“That sum would provide little relief to hosts such as Jennifer and David Landrum of Atlanta. In 2016, they started a company named Local, renting the 18 apartments they leased and 21 apartments they managed to corporate travelers and film-industry workers. They spent more than $14,000 per apartment to outfit them with rugs, throw pillows, art and chandeliers. They grossed about $1.5 million annually, mostly through Airbnb, Ms. Landrum said.
They spend about $50,000 annually with cleaning services, about $25,000 on an inspector and $30,000 a year on maintenance staff and landscapers, Ms. Landrum said, not to mention spending on furnishings.
When Airbnb began refunding guests March 14, the Landrums had nearly $40,000 in cancellations, she said. The couple has been able to pay only a portion of April rent on the 18 apartments they lease and can’t fulfill their obligations to pay three months’ rent unless bookings resume. They have reduced pay to cleaning staff and others. Adding to the stress, Georgia banned short-term rentals through April.
“It’s scary,” said Ms. Landrum, who said she has discounted some units three times since mid-March. The Landrums have negotiated to get some leniency from apartment owners on their leases. If not, Ms. Landrum said, they would have to sell their house.”
To make matters worse, and this is exactly what we warned about last month, Airbnb Superhosts are now panic selling properties:
Greg Hague, who runs a Phoenix real-estate firm, said Airbnb hosts are “desperate to sell properties” in April.
“There’s been a flood of people. You have people coming to us saying, ‘I’m a month or two away from foreclosure. What’s it going to take to get it sold now?'” Hague said.
And here’s what we said in March: “We might have discovered the next big seller that could ruin the real estate market: Airbnb Superhosts that need to get liquid.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 20:11 - JPMorgan: "If There Is Any Good News In This Report, Don't Believe It"
JPMorgan: “If There Is Any Good News In This Report, Don’t Believe It”
It’s perfectly fitting that in an economy which – as of tomorrow morning – will have 30 million newly unemployed workers (and perhaps as many as 50 million), and where the recession officially began after the biggest GDP plunge since the financial crisis (soon to be followed by an even worse collapse in Q2 growth) that stocks would soar almost 3% and tech names are now flat for the year.
Some would call it a depression; others a new bull market.
But maybe we are somehow misreading today’s GDP print? Maybe, hidden somewhere deep between the lines there was just the right amount of good news the algos were looking for and the economic crash was really a catalyst to send stocks surging? Maybe we are deluding ourselves, and it wasn’t that bad? Well, according to JPM the answer is…
Nope, it looks like that the data was indeed bad. So bad, in fact, that stocks exploded because thanks to central planning, the worse the news for the ordinary man on the street, the richer Wall Street gets, courtesy of Powell. Here are the details from JPM:
US GDP growth for 1Q fell 4.8% q/q saar. If there is any good news in this report, don’t believe it. These data are ugly, and are set to get much worse.
While the outturn was not as bad as we had feared (-11.2%ar), it was modestly worse than consensus (-4.0%ar) and the largest decline since 2008. Moreover, given the likely hit to hard-to-measure service sector activity late in the quarter, there is a high likelihood of downward revisions. Notably, we have not changed our call for a 40%ar plunge in current-quarter GDP—but we lowered our 3Q20 projection so as to leave the level of GDP by 4Q20 unchanged at a huge 7% below its 4Q19 level.
So now that we are in a quarter when the US economy is expected to shrink by 40%, or about $2 trillion, stocks are now just 10% below their all time highs, and at the current pace of levitation, will surpass the previous records in a few days.
Incidentally, when Jerome Powell was asked what he thinks of this absolute idiocy, and if he is guilty of encouraging moral hazard and pushing stocks higher, he said that “we want markets to work, we are not focused on asset prices”, to which he added that “it’s been good to see markets working.” Which by implication means that when markets are down, they no longer “work.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 19:57 - "It's A Weapon For The US" – China Official Renews Calls To Dethrone The Dollar
“It’s A Weapon For The US” – China Official Renews Calls To Dethrone The Dollar
Last year, we reported extensively on a push toward de-dollarization by countries like Russia and China and their desire to undermine the ability of the US to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. Europe was even starting to push to dethrone the dollar as the reserve currency.
With the Federal Reserve running the dollar printing press at full speed and the US government expanding the national debt into the stratosphere, there are renewed calls for a currency to replace the dollar as the world reserve.
This week, Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) President Wang Zhenying called for a new super-sovereign currency to replace the greenback.
Concern has mounted among some market participants over the dollar-denominated system as the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near-zero and embarked on unlimited quantitative easing to contain the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic.”
Wang said that the Fed’s monetary policy in response to COVID-19 would eventually tank the dollar even though the current crisis has triggered a scramble for greenbacks.
When the Fed turns on the liquidity tap, the US dollar will, in theory, be in a long-term depreciatory trend.”
Peter Schiff has been predicting that the dollar is going to tank for quite some time. It’s a matter of when, not if. As the coronavirus crisis began to unfold and the Fed fired up the printing press, Peter said that with the central bank and government response to the coronavirus, hyperinflation has gone from being the worst-case scenario to the most likely scenario.
Peter has also said he thinks people will eventually start dumping dollars.
Nobody can hold dollars. Nobody can hold any bonds denominated in dollars. This is now like a game of musical chairs where nobody wants to get caught with dollars when the music stops playing.”
Wang not only expressed concern about the long-term stability of the dollar; he also echoed an oft-repeated criticism of the US controlling the reserve currency. America uses the privilege as a foreign policy tool. For instance, in 2014 and 2015, the blocked several Russian banks from SWIFT as relations between the two countries deteriorated. Last fall, the US threatened to lock China out of the dollar system if it didn’t follow UN sanctions on North Korea. Wang said this needs to end.
It is a weapon for the US, but a source of insecurity for other countries. The currency the world ultimately chooses for global trade must not be one that gives someone privilege, while exposing others to insecurity.”
A gold standard that prevented central banks from manipulating the money supply would be ideal. Peter has said that the US went off the gold standard in 1971, but he thinks the world is going to go back on it.
The days where the dollar is the reserve currency are numbered and we’re going back to basics. You know, everything old is new again. Gold was money in the past and it will be money again in the future.”
Regardless of what form it takes, it seems likely that efforts to push the dollar off its perch will only increase. The powers that be in America should be concerned about their currencies future as the world reserve. And Americans should be concerned about the future purchasing power of their dollars.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/29/2020 – 19:45
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