Apr 30

Today’s News 30th April 2024

  • "Remarkable Turn Of Events" – Alleged Chinese Spy Working For AfD MP Was Informant For German Intelligence For Years
    “Remarkable Turn Of Events” – Alleged Chinese Spy Working For AfD MP Was Informant For German Intelligence For Years

    Authored by John Cody via ReMix News,

    The news about Alternative for Germany (AfD) MEP Maximilian Krah’s assistant and his arrest for suspected espionage on behalf of China continues to make national headlines, but as more information comes out, the more German intelligence and the political establishment continue to look worse and worse.

    Now, news reports have revealed that Krah’s employee, Chinese-German national Jian G., worked for the German domestic intelligence service for years before joining the AfD politician.

    Krah has since commented on the new bombshell information, writing on X:

    “Remarkable turn of events!”

    https://twitter.com/KrahMax/status/1783917894159458787

    Much is at stake, as Krah is the top candidate for the AfD in the run-up to the EU parliamentary elections in June. The latest report shows that the powerful Office for the Protection of Constitution (BfV) not only recruited Jian G. as a spy, but also dropped him as an informant because there were concerns he was a double agent for China.

    However, despite these suspicions, Jian G. gained German citizenship, became a member of the Social Democrats (SPD), and even passed the EU parliament’s security clearance.

    Former minister Mathias Brodkorb questioned the story on X, writing:

    They are really funny. Let’s assume the story is true:

    1. The Office for the Protection of the Constitution is working with the man.

    2. Then, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution ends the collaboration because the man could be a double agent.

    3. Then the German state naturalizes this agent.

    Intermediate question: Where was the Office for the Protection of the Constitution at that time?

    4. Then, Krah wants to hire the man as an employee of the EU parliament. That cannot be done without a security check. So the EU parliament should actually have asked the German security authorities whether there was anything against the man. But apparently they didn’t. Otherwise, the man would not have been cleared and could not have been hired.

    Intermediate question: Where was the Office for the Protection of the Constitution at that time? And you are now seriously asking what the problem is? Seriously?

    One of the main questions is why the Office for the Protection of the Constitution never informed Krah or the AfD about their suspicions, which is standard operating procedure, and one designed to protect the country’s parties from foreign infiltration. Notably, allowing Jian G. to work for Krah created a favorable political scenario for the establishment to later arrest him in order to smear the AfD. Notably, Jian G. was arrested right before EU parliamentary elections.

    The question now is whether the BfV purposefully kept the AfD in the dark for years about the information it knew in order to damage the party.

    Working for the BfV all the way back in 2007

    According to Bild newspaper, Jian G. was an informant for the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) since 2007 at the earliest. Previously, he had unsuccessfully offered to work for the federal branch of the BfV, but he was rejected, and referred back to the Saxon branch of the BfV.

    Jian G. reportedly worked with the intelligence service on his own initiative, including supplying information that dealt with Chinese state actors taking action against Chinese exiles in Germany. Eight years after joining the Saxon BfV as an informant, the Saxon branch was informed by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution that G. could be a double spy.

    In 2015 and 2016, G. was then directly observed by the counterintelligence department of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. Officers also questioned him about their suspicions but were unable to prove that he was a spy for China. He was therefore listed as a “suspected case” during that period.

    In 2018, G. was finally removed as an informant by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

    However, by that time, Jian G. had already made contact with Krah and then went on to work as his employee in the EU parliament beginning in 2019. He was then intensively monitored by the domestic intelligence service from 2020 and finally arrested in April 2024.

    As noted above, despite the suspicion of espionage, the Chinese national was granted a German passport, was also a member of the SPD for a time, and was able to pass the security check for the EU parliament.

    In addition, the BfV under Thomas Haldenwang (CDU), who is notoriously anti-AfD and publicly working against the party, failed to inform Krah or the AfD about the suspicion of espionage against Jian G.

    As Remix News has documented, Haldenwang has made numerous remarks against the AfD, including on state-funded television, all in violation of neutrality. Haldenwang belongs to the CDU party.

    Notably, this is standard procedure in such cases, which means the Office for the Protection of the Constitution withheld this information from the AfD in violation of past precedent and procedure.

    Read more here

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 04/30/2024 – 02:00

  • Does The CIA Run America?
    Does The CIA Run America?

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    We’ve all surely had dark thoughts that the CIA is really running the United States, including many media venues. Maybe that’s been true for decades and we just didn’t know it. If so, let’s just say that it would explain a tremendous amount of what has otherwise been clouded in secrecy.

    How would this be possible? Knowledge is power while secret knowledge is full control. Even fake knowledge means power and control, such as we found out in the phony Russiagate investigation early in Trump’s term. They hounded the new administration for years under a completely fake scenario in which Russia somehow got Donald Trump elected.

    Yes, that was an intelligence operation all along, one directly designed to overthrow an election, a “color revolution” on our own soil.

    How dare an agency not elected by the people, and evading oversight and public accountability, put itself ahead of the Constitution and the rule of law? It’s been going on for many decades as the agencies have gained ever more power, even to the point of forcing a full lockdown of America and even the world under false pretense.

    None of this is verifiable precisely because of the secrecy involved. It’s not as if the intelligence community is going to send out a press release: “Democracy in America is an illusion. We know because we control nearly everything, plus we aspire to control even more.”

    The incredulous among us will shoot back: look at what you are saying! Your conspiracy theory is non-falsifiable. The less evidence you have for it, the more you believe it. How in the world can we argue with you? Your position is not really plausible but there is nothing we can do to convince you otherwise.

    Let’s grant the point. Still, let’s not dismiss the theory completely. Based on a New York Times (NYT) piece that appeared last week, it contains more than a grain of truth. The article is titled: “Campaign Puts Trump and the Spy Agencies on a Collision Course.”

    Quote: “Even as president, Donald J. Trump flaunted his animosity for intelligence officials, portraying them as part of a politicized ‘deep state’ out to get him. And since he left office, that distrust has grown into outright hostility, with potentially serious implications for national security should he be elected again.”

    Ok, let’s be clear. If the intelligence community led by the CIA is not the “deep state,” what is?

    Further, it is proven many times over that the Deep State is in fact out to get him. This is not even controversial. Indeed, there is no reason for these journalists to write the above as if Donald Trump is somehow consumed by some kind of baseless paranoia.

    Let’s keep going here: “Trump is now on a possible collision course with the intelligence community …. The result is a complicated and possibly destabilizing situation the United States has never seen before: deep-seated suspicion and disdain on the part of a former and perhaps future president toward the very people he would be relying on for the most sensitive information he would need to perform his role if elected again.”

    Wait just a moment. You are telling us that all previous presidents have had a happy relationship with the CIA? That’s rather interesting to know. And deeply troubling too, since the CIA has been managing regime change the world over for a very long time, and is now directly involved in U.S. politics at the most intimate level.

    Any president worth his salt should absolutely have a hostile relationship with such an agency, if only to establish clear civilian control over the government, without which it’s not possible to say that we live in a Constitutional republic.

    And now, according to the NYT, we have one seeking the Presidency who does not defer to the agency and that this is destabilizing and deeply problematic. Who does that suggest really rules this country?

    Is the NYT itself guilty of the most extreme conspiracy theory imaginable, or is it just stating facts as we know them? I’m going to guess that it is the latter. In this case, every single American should be deeply alarmed.

    Crazy huh? As for the phrase “never seen before,” we have to push back. What about George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, James Polk, and Calvin Coolidge? They were all previous presidents, according to the history books that people once read.

    There was no CIA back then. If you doubt this, I’m pretty sure that your favorite AI engine will confirm it.

    One must suppose that when the NYT says “never seen before,” it means in the post-war period. And that very well might be true. John F. Kennedy defied them. We know that for certain. The mysteries surrounding his murder won’t be solved fully until we get the documents. But the consensus is growing that this murder was really a coup by the CIA, a message sent as a lesson to every successor in that office.

    Think of that: we live in a country today where most people readily admit that the CIA probably killed the president. Amazing.

    It’s intriguing to know at this late date that the Watergate “scandal” was not what it appeared to be, namely an intrepid media holding government to account. Even astute observers at the time believed the mainstream narrative. Now we have plenty of evidence that this too was nothing but a deep state attack on a president who had lost patience with it and provoked another coup.

    All credit to my brilliant father who speculated along these lines at the time. I was very young with only the vaguest clue about what was happening. But I recall very well that he was convinced that Richard Nixon was set up in a trap and unfairly hounded out of office not for the bad things he was doing but for standing up to the Deep State.

    If my own father, not a particularly political person, knew this for certain at the time, this must have been a strong perception even then.

    You hear the rap that these agencies—the CIA is one but there are many adjacent others—are not allowed by law to intervene in domestic politics. At this point and after so much experience, this comes across to me like something of a joke. We know from vast evidence and personal testimony that the CIA has been manipulating political figures, narratives, and outcomes for a very long time.

    How involved is the CIA in journalism today? Well, as a traditionally liberal paper, you might suppose that the NYT itself would be highly skeptical of the CIA. But these days, they have published a long string of aggressively defensive articles with titles like “It Turns Out that the Deep State Is Awesome” and “Government Surveillance Keeps Us Safe.” We can add this last piece to the list.

    So let’s just say it: the NYT is CIA. So too is Mother Jones, Rolling Stone, Slate, Salon, and many other mainstream publications, including major tech companies like Google and Microsoft. The tentacles are everywhere and ever more obvious. Operation Mockingbird was just the beginning. The network is everywhere and the practice of manipulating the news is wholly normalized.

    Once you start developing the ability to see the markings, you simply cannot unsee them, which is why people who think and write about this can come across as crackpot crazy after a while.

    Have you considered that maybe the crackpots are exactly right? If so, shouldn’t we, at bare minimum, seek to support a Presidential candidate with a hostile relationship to the intelligence community?

    Indeed, that ought to be a bare minimum standard of qualification. There is simply no way we can restore civilian control of government and constitutional government until this agency can be thoroughly reigned in or abolished completely.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 23:40

  • Have Fun Staying Poor: Washington Announces $45 Million Subsidy For Low Income Families To Buy EVs
    Have Fun Staying Poor: Washington Announces $45 Million Subsidy For Low Income Families To Buy EVs

    Just when you thought you’ve already witnessed a lifetime’s worth of examples of the government being excellent capital allocators with your tax money, one more shining example comes along. 

    Last week it was reported that Washington Governor Jay Inslee has announced $45 million worth of subsidies that is going to allow “low income” families to purchase an electric vehicle. 

    The initiative offers families the opportunity to receive financial assistance for either leasing or purchasing electric vehicles, with up to $9,000 allocated for leasing and $5,000 for purchasing, according to Must Read Alaska.

    The program is open to individuals earning 300% or less of the federal poverty level and extends to both new and used EVs. Approximately 9,000 people can benefit from the grant, with the potential for either 9,000 individuals to opt for the $5,000 deal or 5,000 individuals for the $9,000 option.

    “Washingtonians really get it when it comes to electric vehicles,” Inslee said at a press conference last week. 

    Governor Inslee characterized the initiative as a means to “democratize EVs,” emphasizing a broader goal of advancing the electrification of transportation. He expressed optimism about widespread adoption, anticipating significant participation and benefit from the program.

    However, the program has faced criticism, notably from Washington Policy Center Environmental Director Todd Myers. Myers contends that the subsidies fail to effectively curb carbon emissions and represent a misallocation of taxpayer funds that could be better utilized for other environmental priorities like (we swear we are not making this up) salmon recovery.

    Hey Todd, two wrongs don’t make a right! But we digress. Despite the controversy, the grant funds are slated to become available to eligible low-income residents in August.

    Myers wrote in a blog post: “This is one more example of how wasteful and ineffective Washington’s climate policy is.”

    He continued: “It also reveals the disingenuousness of claiming that climate change is an ‘existential crisis’ while wasting tens of millions of dollars on projects that do nothing to address that crisis.”

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 23:20

  • China & The US: What Matters That's Overlooked
    China & The US: What Matters That’s Overlooked

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    Parsing geopolitics is fun but our attention is better directed to the limits and second-order effects of legacy systems in each of the rival states.

    Geopolitics, like any conflict, is dramatic: rivals jostle for hegemony on a 3-D chessboard, war threatens, etc. The focus of this drama is on the leaders’ calculations and the pieces being moved around the board in the complex battle for hearts, minds, resources and the high ground.

    This is the conventional context of history, and so accounts of the rivalry between the Roman Empire and the Persian Empire read like contemporary accounts of the rivalry between China and the U.S.: the actors and scenery changes, but the dramatic plot remains the same.

    A less dramatic but closer reading of history tells a different story: imperial decline stems not from external rivalries but from internal limitations. Externalities–plague, drought, invasion–are not causes so much as events which reveal the limits of the empire’s internal legacy institutions.

    These rigidities can be structural–economic or political–or cultural / social. There are two dynamics in play here:

    1. Once solutions are institutionalized, they become legacy systems that focus not on flexibly solving problems but on sustaining and defending the interests of the institution and its insiders. The solution becomes the problem.

    2. Whatever is viewed as a solution generates unanticipated second-order effects which the system is ill-equipped to resolve.

    There are many examples of these dynamics in both China and the U.S., and indeed, in every nation / polity.

    Consider the goal of increasing homeownership, a laudable ideal that the U.S. pursued after World War II by institutionalizing the heretofore unavailable innovation of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and government-agency backed mortgages (Veteran Administration-backed mortgages for veterans, FHA, etc.).

    Once the institutions promoting homeownership became self-sustaining legacy systems, they changed from “solution” to “problem.” As homeownership rates reached 65% of American households, the institutional drive to increase homeownership led to the development of subprime mortgages designed for households that did not qualify for conventional mortgages.

    To grease the skids, lending standards were stripped to the point of irrelevance, liar loans took center stage and ratings agencies rubber-stamped risky mortgages as low-risk.

    The net result of this institutional self-serving inertia was the collapse of subprime securities and the near-collapse of the global financial system as the dominoes of default and obscured risk started falling.

    Turning to China, consider this chart of what happens when a one child per family state policy is enforced for three generations:

    The policy was institutionalized with a sensible goal of limiting population growth to increase living standards, but without consideration of the second-order effects down the road.

    In three generations, there are four grandparents and two parents who are all single children without siblings, uncles or aunts, and a single child who could be tasked not just with caring for two aging parents but four even older grandparents, should they live beyond the ability of their own aging offspring to care for them.

    China has acquired the markers of a great power–missions to the moon and Mars, a mighty military and global economic influence–but it lacks a state-funded universal social welfare system that provides a substantial pension and medical care for every retiree regardless of their employment or earnings. This leaves much of the care of China’s rapidly aging generations on the shoulders of the third generation of single offspring.

    As in other nations, China’s birthrate has declined precipitously as the financial pressures on parents mount, especially on young mothers who desire career opportunities equal to those available to young men.

    Social welfare programs become increasingly costly and burdensome as populations age. Any state-funded solution will require diverting enormous sums currently spent elsewhere to the care of a large aging cohort.

    The sources of brittleness and failure that are overlooked are internal, not external. Parsing geopolitics is fun but our attention is better directed to the limits and second-order effects of legacy systems in each of the rival states.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 23:00

  • Senator Tells Taxpayers On Gaza Pier: "Cost Has Not Just Risen, It Has Exploded"
    Senator Tells Taxpayers On Gaza Pier: “Cost Has Not Just Risen, It Has Exploded”

    An initial US Navy ship has reached Eastern Mediterranean waters off the coast of the Gaza Strip where its crew has begun constructing a floating platform for the ambitious Gaza humanitarian pier project ordered by President Biden, new satellite images published by Planet Labs show.

    USNS Roy P. Benavidez is now some 5 miles from the shoreline location which serves as the base of operations, overseen by the Israeli military. The Associated Press writes that “A satellite image from Sunday by Planet Labs PBC showed pieces of the floating pier in the Mediterranean Sea alongside the vessel.”

    Planet Labs PBC via AP

    Both US and Israeli officials have voiced that they hope to have a mobile pier in place and humanitarian deliveries being offloaded via maritime routes by sometime in the first part of May.

    The causeway is expected to be at a length of 550-meters (1,800 feet) and will have Israeli military protection. US Army and Navy engineers are expected to remain at sea, especially after days ago the pier site came under mortar shelling by Palestinian militants who have warned against foreign forces stepping foot inside Gaza.

    A new Reuters report meanwhile indicates the pier will cost US taxpayers at least $320 million to finish. This is double the early estimates which were floated earlier this year.

    “The figure, which has not been previously reported, illustrates the massive scale of a construction effort that the Pentagon has said involves about 1,000 US service members, mostly from the Army and Navy,” writes Reuters.

    “The cost has not just risen. It has exploded,” Senator Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Democratic-led Senate Armed Services Committee, has complained.

    “This dangerous effort with marginal benefit will now cost the American taxpayers at least $320 million [US dollars] to operate the pier for only 90 days,” he continued.

    Earlier this month, USAID director Samantha Power said that famine already exists in some parts of the Gaza Strip. WSJ has underscored this as well in its reporting last week: “Some U.S. officials have said the pier, which will float several miles off Gaza’s shore, will help get more aid into northern Gaza, where some residents are already living in famine-like conditions, according to estimates released last month by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, an international initiative tasked with assessing the risk of famine around the world.”

    Many government officials especially from Global South countries have highlighted Washington’s contradictory approach to Gaza – on the one hand the US has been funding the Israeli military machine, sending controversial weaponry like 2,000-pound bombs, while on the other Biden has condemned the soaring civilian death toll and humanitarian catastrophe. Ironically, to some degree the United States is funding both sides of the conflict.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 22:40

  • Columbia Begins Suspensions After Demonstrators Ignore 2PM Deadline
    Columbia Begins Suspensions After Demonstrators Ignore 2PM Deadline

    Update (2230ET): Columbia University announced Monday evening that it has begun suspending students who wouldn’t leave an pro-Palestine encampment by a 2pm deadline.

    Via NY Times

    Students in the encampment along with hundreds of supporters spent Monday afternoon rallying in support of the movement, however by 4pm most of the protesters began to disperse after there was no sign of police action to arrest protesters or remove tents. Around 80 students remained by early evening.

    And now, they’ll be suspended.

    “We have begun suspending students as part of the next phase of our efforts to ensure the safety of our campus,” said University spokesman Ben Chang. 

    At present, a core group of students remain.

    At a news conference on Monday afternoon, Sueda Polat, a student organizer with the encampment, said that the university had not made significant concessions to the protesters’ main demand: divestment from companies with links to the Israeli occupation of Gaza. Columbia had also stopped negotiating. As a result, she said, the students inside the encampment “will not be moved unless by force.”

    “We’ve been asked to disperse, but it is against the will of the students to disperse,” she said. “We do not abide by university pressures. We act based on the will of the students.” –NY Times

    Earlier in the day faculty members, many wearing masks, were getting in on the action.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

    *  *  *

    Columbia University has given protesting students until 2pm to leave their encampment and sign a form committing to abide by university policies through June 30, 2025, or by their graduation. Failure to do so will disqualify students from graduating this spring, or from participating in academic and extracurricular activities, Axios reports.

    “It is important for you to know that the university has already identified many students in the encampment,” reads the Monday letter that was shared by Columbia Students for Justice in Palestine. “If you do not leave by 2pm, you will be suspended pending further investigation.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Sanctions include probation, access restriction, suspension for a term or more and expulsion,” reads the Monday notice – which doesn’t look like it’s going well.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to the letter, talks between university leaders and student leaders at the encampment are at an impasse and the unauthorized encampment and associated disruption to the campus has created an “unwelcoming environment” which violates various school policies – including rules governing disruptive behavior and harassment.

    “Please promptly gather your belongings and leave the encampment,” reads the letter. “If you voluntarily leave by 2 p.m., identify yourself to a University officials, and sign the provided form where you commit to abide by all University policies through June 30, 2025, or the date of the conferral of your degree, whichever is earlier, you will be eligible to complete the semester in good standing (and will not be placed on suspension) as long as you adhere to that commitment.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Officials say they hope the protesting students will sign the form and leave by the deadline. Those who refuse will be put on disciplinary probation.

    Meanwhile, things are starting to get spicy:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As the Epoch Times notes further, efforts to dismantle the encampment have failed, as university president Minouche Shafik has faced an outcry from many students, faculty, and outside observers for summoning New York City police to take down the unauthorized encampment, resulting in more than 100 arrests.

    Protesters have vowed to keep their encampment unless three demands are met: divestment from Israel, transparency in Columbia’s finances, and amnesty for students and staff disciplined for taking part in the protests.

    Ms. Shafik said in her Monday statement that Columbia would not divest from Israel but that the university has offered to publish a process for students to access a list of its direct investment holdings, in the interest of transparency. Columbia has also offered to make investments in health and education in Gaza. And the letter sent to protesters promises an amnesty of sorts.

    She said that the campus has been roiled by divisions over the war in Gaza and, despite the fact that the school has provided space for protests and vigils that did not disrupt academic life, the encampment has gone too far.

    “We must take into account the rights of all members of our community,” she wrote. “The encampment has created an unwelcoming environment for many of our Jewish students and faculty. External actors have contributed to creating a hostile environment in violation of Title VI, especially around our gates, that is unsafe for everyone—including our neighbors.”

    “With classes now concluding, it represents a noisy distraction for our students studying for exams and for everyone trying to complete the academic year,” she continued, adding that Columbia would allow protests to continue on campus—by application with two-days’ notice in authorized locations—after the exam period and commencement.

    “We have no intention of suppressing speech or the right to peaceful protest,” Ms. Shafik wrote, adding that the protesting students had been asked to commit to following the university’s rules, including those on the time, place, and manner of demonstrations.

    “We urge those in the encampment to voluntarily disperse,” she added.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It comes as a group of 21 House Democrats criticized the “anti-Israel, anti-Jewish” encampment at Columbia in an April 29 letter to the school’s trustees.

    “We, the undersigned, write to express our disappointment that, despite promises to do so, Columbia University has not yet disbanded the unauthorized and impermissible encampment of anti-Israel, anti-Jewish activists on campus,” the lawmakers said in their letter.

    “As a result of this disruption on campus, supported by some faculty members, many students have been prevented from safely attending class, the main library, and from leaving their dorm rooms in an apparent violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act.”

    The group, led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), is different from calls condemning the protests that have mostly come from GOP leaders. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Republican colleagues visited the campus last week and called for Ms. Shafik to resign.

    Chase Smith contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 22:30

  • Von Greyerz: The Real Move In Gold & Silver Is Yet To Start
    Von Greyerz: The Real Move In Gold & Silver Is Yet To Start

    Authored by Egon von Greyerz via VonGreyerz.gold,

    Since the October 2023 gold low of just over $1,600 gold is up but is anyone buying?

    Well no, certainly none of the normal players.

    Gold Depositories, Gold Funds and Gold ETFs have lost just under 1,400 tonnes of their gold holdings in the last 2 years since May 2022. 

    But not only gold funds are seeing weak buying but also mints such as the Perth Mint and the US Mint with its coin sales down 96% year on year. 

    Clearly gold knows something that the market hasn’t discovered yet. 

    RATES MUCH HIGHER 

    For the last few years I have been clear that there will be no lasting interest rate cuts. 

    As the chart shows below, the 40 year down trend in US rates bottomed in 2020 and since then rates are in a secular uptrend.  

    I have discussed this in many articles as well as in for example this interview from 2022 when I stated that rates will exceed 10% and potentially much higher in the coming inflationary environment, fuelled by escalating deficits and debt explosion.

    “But the Fed will keep rates down” I hear all the experts call out!

    Finally the “experts” are changing their mind and  believe that cuts will no longer happen. 

    No central bank can control interest rates when its government recklessly issues unlimited debt and the only buyer is the central bank itself. 

    PONZI SCHEME WORTHY OF A BANANA REPUBLIC

    This is a Ponzi scheme only worthy of a Banana Republic. And this is where the US is heading.  

    So strongly rising long rates will pull short rates up. 

    And that’s when the fun panic starts. 

    As Niall Ferguson stated in a recent article:

    “Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defence will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire”.

    So based on the CBO (Congressional Budget Office), the US will spend more on interest than defence already at the end of 2024 as this chart shows: 

    But as often is the case, the CBO prefers not to tell uncomfortable truths. 

    The CBO forecasts interest costs to reach $1.6 trillion by 2034. But if we extrapolate the trends of the deficit and apply current interest rate, the annualised interest cost will reach $1.6 trillion at the end of 2024 rather than in 2034. 

    Just look at the steepness of the interest cost curve above. It is clearly EXPONENTIAL. 

    Total Federal debt was below $1 trillion in 1980. Now, interest on the debt is $1.6 trillion.

    Debt today $35 trillion rising to $100 trillion by 2034.

    The same with the US Federal Debt. Extrapolating the trend since 1980, the debt will be $100 trillion by 2036 and that is probably conservative.

    With the interest trend up as explained above, a 10% rate in 2036 or before is not unrealistic. Remember rates back in the 1970s and early 1980s were well above 10% with a much lower debt and deficit.

    US BONDS – BUY THEM AT YOUR PERIL  

    Let us analyse the current and future of a US treasury debt (and most sovereign debt):

    • Issuance will accelerate exponentially 

    • It will never be repaid. At best only deferred or more probably defaulted on

    • The value of the currency will fall precipitously

    HYPERINFLATION COMING

    So where are we heading? 

    Most probably we are facing an inflationary period leading to probable hyperinflation 

    With global debt already up over 4x this century from $80 trillion to $350 trillion. Add to that a Derivative mountain of over $2 quadrillion plus unfunded liabilities and the total will exceed $3 quadrillion. 

    As central banks frenetically try to save the financial system, most of the 3 quadrillion will become debt as counterparties fail and banks will need to be saved with unlimited money printing. 

    BANCA ROTTA – BANKRUPT FINANCIAL SYSTEM 

    But a rotten system can never be saved. And this is where the expression Banca Rotta derives from – broken bench or broken bank as my article from April 2023 explained. 

    But neither a bank nor a sovereign state can be saved by issuing worthless pieces of paper or digital money. 

    In March 2023, four US banks collapsed within a matter of days. And soon thereafter Credit Suisse was in trouble and had to be rescued. 

    The problems in the banking system have just started. Falling bond prices and collapsing values of property loans are just the beginning. 

    This week Republic First Bancorp had to be saved. 

    Just look at US banks’ unrealised losses on their bond portfolios in the graph below.

     Unrealised losses on bonds held to maturity are $400 billion.

    And losses on bonds available for sale are $250 billion. So the US banking system is sitting on identified losses of $650 billion just on their bond portfolios. As interest rates go up, these losses will increase.

    Add to that, losses on loans against collapsing commercial property values and much more.

    EXPONENTIAL MOVES 

    So we will see debt grow exponentially as it has already started to do.  Exponential moves start gradually and then suddenly whether we talk about debt, inflation or population growth. 

    The stadium analogy below shows how it all develops:

    It takes 50 minutes to fill a stadium with water, starting with one drop and doubling every minute – 1, 2, 4, 8 drops etc. After 45 minutes the stadium is only 7% full and the last 5 minutes it goes form 7% to 100%.

    THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM

    So the world is most probably now in the last 5 minutes of our current financial system.

    The coming final phase is likely to go very fast as all exponential moves do, just like in the Weimar Republic in 1923. In January 1923 one ounce of gold cost 372,000 marks and at the end of November in 1923 the price was 87 trillion marks!

    The consequences of a collapse of the financial system and the global economy, especially in the West can take many decades to recover from. It will involve a debt and asset implosion plus a massive contraction of the economy and trade.

    The East and South and especially the countries with major commodity reserves will recover much faster. Russia for example has $85 trillion in commodity reserves, the biggest in the world. 

    As US issuance of treasuries accelerate, the potential buyers will decline until there is only one bidder which is the Fed. 

    Even today no sane sovereign state would buy US treasuries. Actually no sane investor would buy US treasuries. 

    Here we have an already insolvent debtor that has no means of repaying his debt except for issuing more of the same rubbish which in future would only be good for toilet paper. But electronic paper is not even good for that. 

    This is a sign in a Zimbabwe toilet: 

    Let us analyse the current and future of a US treasury debt (and most sovereign debt):

    • Issuance will accelerate exponentially 

    • It will never be repaid. At best only deferred or more probably defaulted on

    • The value of the currency will fall precipitously

    That’s all there is to it. Thus anyone who buys US treasuries or other sovereign bonds has a 99.9% guarantee of not getting his money back. 

    So Bonds are no longer an asset of value but just a liability for the borrower that will or can not be repaid.

    What about stocks or corporate bonds. Many companies won’t survive or experience a major decline in the stock price together with major cash flow pressures. 

    As I have discussed in many articles, we are entering the era of commodities and especially precious metals. 

    The coming era is not for speculation but for trying to keep as much of what you have as possible. For the investor who doesn’t protect himself, there will be a wealth destruction of an unprecedented magnitude. 

    There will no longer be a question what return you can get on your investment. 

    Instead it is a matter of losing as little as possible. 

    Holding stocks, bonds or property – all the bubble assets – are likely to lead to massive wealth erosion as we go into the “Everything Collapse”.

    THE NEW ERA OF GOLD AND SILVER

    For soon 25 years I have been urging investors to hold gold to preserve their wealth. Since the beginning of this century gold has outperformed most asset classes. 

    Between 2000 and today, the S&P, including reinvested dividends, has returned 7.7% per annum whilst gold has returned 9.2% per year or 8X.

    In the next few years, all the factors discussed in this article will lead to major gains in the precious metals and falls in most conventional assets. 

    There are many other positive factors for gold. 

    As the chart below shows, the West has reduced its gold reserves since the late 1960s, whilst the East is growing its gold reserves strongly. And we have just seen the beginning of this trend.

    The US and EU sanctioning of Russia and the freezing/confiscation of the Russian assets in foreign banks are very beneficial for gold. 

    No sovereign states will hold their reserves in US dollars any more. Instead we will see central bank reserves move to gold. That shift has already started and is one of the reasons for gold’s rise. 

    In addition, gradually the BRICS countries are moving away from the dollar to trading in their local currencies. For commodity rich countries, gold will be an important part of their trading. 

    Thus there are major forces behind the gold move which has just started and will reach further both in price and time than anyone can imagine. 

    HOW TO OWN GOLD

    But remember for investors, holding gold is for financial survival and protection of assets. 

    Therefore gold must be held in physical form outside the banking system with direct access for the investor. 

    Also gold must be held in safe jurisdictions with a long history of rule of law and stable government. 

    The cost of storing gold should not be the primary consideration for choosing a custodian. When you buy life insurance you mustn’t buy the cheapest but the best.

    First consideration must be the owners and management. What is their reputation, background and previous history. 

    Thereafter secure servers, security, liquidity, location and insurance are very important. 

    Also, high level of personal service is paramount. Many vaults fail in this area. 

    Preferably gold should not be held in the country where you are resident, especially not in the US with its fragile financial system. 

    Neither gold nor silver has started the real move yet. Any major correction is likely to come from much higher levels. 

    Gold and silver are in a hurry so it is not too late to jump on the gold wagon.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 22:20

  • Major Dollar Tree Warehouse Demolished By Tornado, May Spark Supply Chain Chaos
    Major Dollar Tree Warehouse Demolished By Tornado, May Spark Supply Chain Chaos

    A tornado outbreak on Saturday night across southern Oklahoma decimated a major distribution center for budget retailer Dollar Tree. The facility supplies stores across the Oklahoma-Texas area, plus other surrounding states, which may spark supply chain issues. 

    Professional storm chaser Aaron Rigsby posted several aerial images of the Dollar Tree distribution center in the Marietta area on X. The photos show the damage left behind after a tornado ripped through the center of the massive warehouse. 

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    Another storm chaser, Brandon Clement, posted an up-close drone video of the wreckage, showing millions of products that won’t arrive on store shelves anytime soon.

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    Marietta is located in Love County. The country’s sheriff’s office posted on Facebook that “power lines everywhere and buildings have been destroyed.” 

    “Significant damage to dollar tree warehouse, homeland, dollar general, nursing home, and part of the hospital,” the sheriff’s office said. 

    With the Marietta distribution center offline, this may spark significant disruptions in the supply of goods to stores located in Texas, Oklahoma, and surrounding states. 

    Dollar Tree operates 25 distribution centers nationwide, serving over 15,500 stores.  

    There is no official statement from the company specifying supply chain impacts. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 22:00

  • What, No Bitcoin? How "Hundreds Of Billions" Are Laundered With Cash On Airplanes
    What, No Bitcoin? How “Hundreds Of Billions” Are Laundered With Cash On Airplanes

    Will anti-bitcoin crusader Liz Warren demand that British Pounds be banned next?

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    Jo-Emma Larvin navigated through London’s Heathrow Airport on a fateful day in August 2020, pushing a cart laden with seven suitcases. Traveling business class to Dubai, Larvin and her companion passed through security, seemingly no different from the throngs of other travelers. Yet, unbeknownst to airport authorities, her bags held a clandestine cargo: millions of British pounds, wrapped in rubber bands and sealed in plastic.

    Their destination? An international money launderer, adept at converting cash into gold or other currencies, the Wall Street Journal reports, without mentioning bitcoin once, because let’s face it: 99% of all money laundering involves not crypto but cold, hard cash!

    Jo-Emma Larvin at a London movie premiere in 2010. Photo: Mike Marsland/WireImage/Getty Images

    The money launderer, who charges a hefty fee to clients to exchange cash for gold and other currencies, has been operating via Heathrow to Dubai – the former doesn’t scan outbound luggage for cash, while the latter welcomes sacks of it. They’re also the #1 and #2 of the world’s busiest airports for international passengers.

    The UK mandates passengers declare amounts exceeding $10,000 to customs authorities. Larvin, however, risked arrest by not disclosing her precious cargo, not that anyone would notice. The suitcases slid through Heathrow’s baggage-handling system and its 3-D scanner, designed to detect explosives rather than contraband currency.

    The next morning in Dubai, the women calmly collected their bags, declaring $2.8 million at customs, a practice fully permitted by UAE law. While the UAE allows any amount of cash to enter its borders, the laxity of international airports in monitoring money flows has created a loophole, one exploited by money launderers worldwide.

    Each year, more than $2 trillion in proceeds from illegal enterprises enters the global financial system, with a significant portion smuggled across borders by air. According to estimates by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime and the Financial Action Task Force, “hundreds of billions in illicit cash” fly out of the UK and other nations to countries with fewer regulations.

    One of the reasons for so much airline smuggling is that banks around the globe have stepped up the reporting of suspicious transactions, making it more difficult to launder money using traditional wire transfers. So it’s back to even more traditional ways of money laundering.

    “You just can’t walk into a bank with this much money without being flagged,” said George Voloshin, of ACAMS, an industry group for financial crime-fighting professionals. “You will be arrested at the next branch.“

    Larvin and her boyfriend became two operatives in an intricate web of money launderers working for a UAE-based kingpin. Over a few months in 2020, this network smuggled around $125 million, primarily from the UK to Dubai. “How did they manage so much money in such a short time?” wondered Ian Truby, a senior officer at the UK’s National Crime Agency. “Security isn’t designed to detect such activities.”

    Three weeks after her initial journey, Larvin returned to Heathrow with her boyfriend, carrying eight suitcases filled with cash. “It’s fucking ridiculous,” he texted, voicing concern about drawing attention. “Talk about conspicuous.”

    The pair’s operation ultimately contributed to unraveling a broader international laundering scheme.

    Bundles of cash found in a suitcase after an arrest at Heathrow Airport. Photo: National Crime Agency

    The Kingpin

    Documents, court records, and interviews reveal how a man named Abdulla Alfalasi spearheaded the smuggling operation, transporting cash from Heathrow to Dubai since 2017. He expanded during the pandemic, once departing with 11 suitcases weighing 463 pounds and reporting $850,000 in Dubai. Alfalasi’s connections, including his father-in-law’s involvement in developing Dubai’s airport, provided an air of legitimacy.

    Abdulla Alfalasi Photo: National Crime Agency

    He recruited Michelle Clarke, an executive assistant from Leeds, who soon began recruiting others, including Larvin. The scheme enticed participants with promises of easy money, business-class flights, and luxurious accommodations. Yet the allure was short-lived for many.

    In October 2020, two couriers were intercepted at Heathrow, and a subsequent investigation uncovered a vast network of 36 international couriers. Clarke was arrested in Zanzibar in December, carrying $9 million in gold on a private plane.

    Authorities eventually arrested Alfalasi and several couriers, unveiling details of the operation. Alfalasi pleaded guilty to money laundering and received a 9-year, 7-month prison sentence. His assets, including vehicles and watches, were seized. Clarke remains under investigation in Dubai for money laundering.

    In texts to the Journal, Larvin’s boyfriend, Jonathan Johnson, said that he and Larvin were simply two ordinary people who were hoodwinked. He suggested that if what they did was such a big crime, why aren’t airports scanning luggage for cash?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 21:20

  • Falling From Grace
    Falling From Grace

    Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    Years ago, Doug Casey mentioned in a correspondence to me, “Empires fall from grace with alarming speed.”

    Every now and then, you receive a comment that, although it may have been stated casually, has a lasting effect, as it offers uncommon insight. For me, this was one of those and it’s one that I’ve kept handy at my desk since that time, as a reminder.

    I’m from a British family, one that left the UK just as the British Empire was about to begin its decline. They expatriated to the “New World” to seek promise for the future.

    As I’ve spent most of my life centred in a British colony – the Cayman Islands – I’ve had the opportunity to observe many British contract professionals who left the UK seeking advancement, which they almost invariably find in Cayman. Curiously, though, most returned to the UK after a contract or two, in the belief that the UK would bounce back from its decline, and they wanted to be on board when Britain “came back.”

    This, of course, never happened. The US replaced the UK as the world’s foremost empire, and although the UK has had its ups and downs over the ensuing decades, it hasn’t returned to its former glory.

    And it never will.

    If we observe the empires of the world that have existed over the millennia, we see a consistent history of collapse without renewal. Whether we’re looking at the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, or any other that’s existed at one time, history is remarkably consistent: The decline and fall of any empire never reverses itself; nor does the empire return, once it’s fallen.

    But of what importance is this to us today?

    Well, today, the US is the world’s undisputed leading empire and most Americans would agree that, whilst it’s going through a bad patch, it will bounce back and might even be better than ever.

    Not so, I’m afraid.

    All empires follow the same cycle.

    They begin with a population that has a strong work ethic and is self-reliant. Those people organize to form a nation of great strength, based upon high productivity.

    This leads to expansion, generally based upon world trade. At some point, this gives rise to leaders who seek, not to work in partnership with other nations, but to dominate them, and of course, this is when a great nation becomes an empire. The US began this stage under the flamboyant and aggressive Teddy Roosevelt.

    The twentieth century was the American century and the US went from victory to victory, expanding its power.

    But the decline began in the 1960s, when the US started to pursue unwinnable wars, began the destruction of its currency and began to expand its government into an all-powerful body.

    Still, this process tends to be protracted and the overall decline often takes decades.

    So, how does that square with the quote, “Empires fall from grace with alarming speed”?

    Well, the preparation for the fall can often be seen for a generation or more, but the actual fall tends to occur quite rapidly.

    What happens is very similar to what happens with a schoolyard bully.

    The bully has a slow rise, based upon his strength and aggressive tendency. After a number of successful fights, he becomes first revered, then feared. He then takes on several toadies who lack his abilities but want some of the spoils, so they do his bidding, acting in a threatening manner to other schoolboys.

    The bully then becomes hated. No one tells him so, but the other kids secretly dream of his defeat, hopefully in a shameful manner.

    Then, at some point, some boy who has a measure of strength and the requisite determination has had enough and takes on the bully.

    If he defeats him, a curious thing happens. The toadies suddenly realise that the jig is up and they head for the hills, knowing that their source of power is gone.

    Also, once the defeated bully is down, all the anger, fear and hatred that his schoolmates felt for him come out, and they take great pleasure in his defeat.

    And this, in a nutshell, is what happens with empires.

    A nation that comes to the rescue in times of genuine need (such as the two World Wars) is revered. But once that nation morphs into a bully that uses any excuse to invade countries such as Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria, its allies may continue to bow to it but secretly fear it and wish that it could be taken down a peg.

    When the empire then starts looking around for other nations to bully, such as Iran and Venezuela, its allies again say nothing but react with fear when they see the John Boltons and Mike Pompeos beating the war drums and making reckless comments.

    At present, the US is focusing primarily on economic warfare, but if this fails to get the world to bend to its dominance, the US has repeatedly warned, regarding possible military aggression, that “no option is off the table.”

    The US has reached the classic stage when it has become a reckless bully, and its support structure of allies has begun to de-couple as a result.

    At the same time that allies begin to pull back and make other plans for their future, those citizens within the empire who tend to be the creators of prosperity also begin to seek greener pastures.

    History has seen this happen countless times. The “brain drain” occurs, in which the best and most productive begin to look elsewhere for their future. Just as the most productive Europeans crossed the Pond to colonise the US when it was a new, promising country, their present-day counterparts have begun moving offshore.

    The US is presently in a state of suspended animation. It still appears to be a major force, but its buttresses are quietly disappearing. At some point in the near future, it’s likely that the US government will overplay its hand and aggress against a foe that either is stronger or has alliances that, collectively, make it stronger.

    The US will be entering into warfare at a time when it’s broke, and this will become apparent suddenly and dramatically. The final decline will occur with alarming speed.

    When this happens, the majority of Americans will hope in vain for a reverse of events. They’ll be inclined to hope that, if they collectively say, “Whoops, we goofed,” the world will be forgiving, returning them to their former glory.

    But historically, this never occurs. Empires fall with alarming speed, because the support systems that made them possible have decamped and have become reinvigorated elsewhere.

    Rather than mourn the loss of empire that’s on the horizon, we’d be better served if we focus instead on those parts of the world that are likely to benefit from this inevitability.

    *  *  *

    Socialist ideas are becoming increasingly popular in the US. At the same time the US government is printing money hand over fist. All while the US empire continues to overstretch itself across the world. It’s all shaping up to be a world-class disaster… one unlike anything we’ve seen before. That’s exactly why New York Times bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video showing how it all could go down. Click here to watch it now.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 21:00

  • "A Lot Of Shuttered Nuclear Power Plants Could Be Turned Back On", Fed Energy Official Says
    “A Lot Of Shuttered Nuclear Power Plants Could Be Turned Back On”, Fed Energy Official Says

    The United States is about to experience a resurgence in nuclear energy. The federal government is expected to continue restarting shuttered nuclear power plants in the coming years to meet the increasing demand for clean, dependable energy essential for powering the economy of tommorrow. 

    “There are a couple of nuclear power plants that we probably should, and can, turn back on,” Jigar Shah, director of the US Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, told Bloomberg in an interview.

    In March, Shah’s office approved a loan to Holtec International Corp. to reopen the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan. This was a historical shift, and it was the first nuclear power plant to be reopened in the US, setting a precedent for atomic energy to make a triumphal comeback. The plant could begin producing power as early as the second half of 2025.

    Shah said, “A lot of the other players that have a nuclear power plant that has recently shut down and could be turned back on are gaining that confidence to try.” He declined to give specifics about which plants were slated to reopen. 

    Nuclear power is the largest single source of carbon-free electricity. Given onshoring trends, electrification of transportation and buildings, and, of course, as we’ve noted in “The Next AI Trade,” the proliferation of AI data centers will overload power grids nationwide unless a significant upgrade is seen.

    We again highlighted the enormous investment opportunity early Monday titled “Everyone Is Piling Into The “Next AI Trade””, which lists companies powering up America for the digital age.

    Nearly 3.5 years ago, we provided readers with a straightforward investment thesis: “Buy Uranium: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze.” Back then, it became apparent to us that the resurrection of the nuclear power industry was imminent. 

    And the trend is only gaining steam as the revival of nuclear power plants will continue benefiting some of the largest uranium producers, such as Cameco. We told readers to buy uranium stocks, such as Cameco around the $10 handle – now it’s nearing $50 a share. 

    As a whole, uranium stocks have soared… 

    We’ll leave readers with recent comments from Patti Poppe, the chief executive officer of Pacific Gas & Electric.

    Poppe told a Stanford University forum that nuclear power should continue to be part of California’s power generation mix as efforts to decarbonize the grid. 

    “Nuclear should be part of the future,” she said, noting that the state’s only nuclear power plant – Diablo Canyon – could be granted a license extension through the 2030s by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 

    So there it is: Nuclear is being revived at a time when the nation’s grid is nearing a major upgrade due to rising power demand. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 20:40

  • California State Lawmaker Introduces Bill To Ban Excessive Homework
    California State Lawmaker Introduces Bill To Ban Excessive Homework

    Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

    A state lawmaker in California has introduced legislation that would severely restrict a teacher’s ability to hand out homework assignments to students that are deemed to be too much.

    As reported by Breitbart, State Assemblywoman Pilar Schiavo (D-Calif.) introduced AB 2999, formally known as The Healthy Homework Act, in February.

    The bill would mandate public school officials to “develop, adopt, and update” their policies regarding homework “at least once every five years.”

    The bill would also require schools to take into account research which allegedly shows the physical and mental health impacts of homework.

    “I think this is going to make a huge impact for the students,” said Schiavo.

    “The times have changed and our homework policies don’t always change with the times, so we need to make sure we are addressing issues that are effective and also don’t harm kids.”

    Schiavo was partially influenced by the fact that her sixth-grade daughter, Sofia, hates homework; she described homework as “exhausting” and “overwhelming.”

    “It’s depressing that my whole day, from when I wake up to when I go to bed, is nearly all taken up with schoolwork,” said Sofia.

    Several alleged “experts” have agreed with Schiavo’s view that homework largely needs to be banned. Harris Cooper, professor of Psychology and Neuroscience at Duke University, claimed that “there is a limit to how much kids can benefit from home study,” and that students should have no more than 10 minutes of homework per day.

    A recent survey by Stanford University found that, of over 300,000 student respondents, 45% said that homework was their top source of stress.

    “If it’s such a source of stress for kids, and we know taking stress off kids’ plates will make a difference in their mental health, this is something that can practically impact kids’ mental health overnight,” Schiavo continued.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 20:20

  • Cocoa Crash Unfolds As "Liquidity Evaporates" 
    Cocoa Crash Unfolds As “Liquidity Evaporates” 

    Cocoa futures in New York crashed Monday in their biggest daily drawdown on record, driven mostly by improved weather forecasts and sliding liquidity. 

    “Cocoa prices are melting down. New York and London cocoa futures are down ~15% today (that’s, by far, the largest one-day % drop in data going back nearly 65 years),” Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote on X. 

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    Futures fell 15% to $8,931 a ton, having hit a record high of $11,722 on April 19. 

    On April 9, during the surge from $9,000 to nearly $12,000, Blas warned: “Liquidity in cocoa markets is quickly evaporating.” 

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    Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, explained to Dow Jones Newswires that today’s selloff was triggered by an improving weather forecast for rain in West Africa, the mecca of cocoa farming. This will only boost the bean outlook for mid-season crops. He also noted that the front contract showed strong signs of ‘buyer fatigue.’ 

    “Liquidity in the market due to the intense volatility of cocoa’s prices has also disappeared, so any kind of news–good or bad–will trigger strong fluctuations in price,” Hansen said, adding that the latest commitment of traders report exhibited broad selling from commercial traders, with the long exposure sliding to a 14-month low as traders panic exit the chaotic market. 

    Despite the cocoa plunge, London-based trading and agricultural consultant Paulo Torres told Bloomberg, “The shortage is not over” and “the elephant in the room is the fact that Ivory Coast and Ghana do not have cocoa, so there is no way prices can fall significantly.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 20:00

  • California's Tax Revenue Projections Weakening As Newsom's Budget Revision Deadline Looms
    California’s Tax Revenue Projections Weakening As Newsom’s Budget Revision Deadline Looms

    Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    With the state facing a record-high budget deficit, tax collections are failing to meet California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s budget proposal projections, which could put further pressure on the state’s finances.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in Los Angeles on Jan. 3, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    As of April 25, the state’s franchise tax board is showing personal income tax collections on track to approximately match estimates for the month.

    However, corporate tax revenues of $4.16 billion equate to more than $500 million below forecasts for the month and are off by $1.4 billion for the fiscal year.

    Some economists point to disruptions in the technology industry—with thousands of California jobs slashed across several companies in recent months—as a contributing factor in declining corporate and personal income taxes.

    “The loss of tech jobs has also hurt California’s public finances, which have grown heavily dependent on Silicon Valley,” Joseph Politano, independent writer for online data and economy newsletter Apricitas Economics, posted April 14 on Substack. “It will mean less future potential revenue—forcing the state to raise tax rates or pare back spending on investment, social services, and more.”

    Sales and use taxes are also driving the shortfall, missing estimates by $1 billion since November.

    In March, such receipts came in $653 million below forecast, which the finance department said, “reflect ongoing weakness in taxable sales.”

    Data analysts blamed inflation and high-interest rates, in part, for the lackluster sales tax collections, as cash-strapped consumers are managing their finances by reducing spending on some items.

    “This decline reflects consumer challenges balancing higher prices and financing costs with essential household needs,” Andy Nickerson, president and CEO of HdL Companies—a data and consulting services provider for local governments—said in an April 16 tax report summary. “As the Federal Reserve considers a delay in softening rates, [we anticipate] consumer spending may continue to stagnate, delaying a return to normal historical growth trends in 2024.”

    Cumulative March tax receipts came in $243 million below estimates and contributed to a $5.8 billion shortfall since November—representing a 4 percent miss—according to a recently released report from the state’s Department of Finance.

    While personal income tax receipts exceeded expectations in March, estimated payments since November were down $4.7 billion, suggesting weakness in tax collections for the 2023 tax year, the finance department reported.

    With the income tax due date of April 15, more details will be available in the first week of May once calculations are complete. Preliminary information from the state’s controller’s office suggests the governor’s estimate could be $6 billion or more higher than actual revenues collected.

    While Mr. Newsom’s January proposal was based on forecasts, a revision due in May will be able to incorporate receipts received, which should provide more clarity.

    “All of these results suggest that April revenues, in the aggregate, may come in several hundred million dollars below monthly estimates,” Jason Sisney, budget director for Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, said in a Substack post April 25. “It is virtually certain that the May Revision will downgrade revenue projections from those the Governor released in January.”

    Mr. Newsom is expected to provide the revision on or before the May 14 deadline.

    The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office predicted earlier this year after weak tax collections in January that revenues would miss the governor’s estimates by about $16 billion for the 2023–2024 fiscal year and another $9 billion for 2024–2025.

    But following personal income tax revenues in February and March that were closer to estimate, Mr. Sisney believes the shortfall will not be as large as the analyst’s office suggested.

    “Based on revenue trends to date … it is difficult for me to see revenues dropping quite that much,” he said.

    Disparities in estimates between the governor and the analyst’s office have existed since January regarding the severity of the budget deficit.

    Mr. Newsom estimates a $38 billion shortfall, while analysts forecast a $73 billion gap in funding. Some of the differences lie in the governor’s calculation of solutions proposed, which the analyst’s office says accounts for about $20 billion of the discrepancy.

    With the numbers in flux, lawmakers and policy experts are awaiting final totals so that budget proposals can be debated in earnest.

    Mr. Newsom recently approved a “budget bill junior” crafted by Democratic lawmakers as an early action plan to address a portion of the deficit.

    Approximately $17 billion to chip away at the deficit—including deferrals, delays, borrowing, and some $3.6 billion cuts—primarily to one-time funding—were enacted by his signing of Assembly Bill 106 on April 15.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 19:40

  • "The Only Safe Asset" – Chinese Consumers Overtake India In Gold-Buying Frenzy
    “The Only Safe Asset” – Chinese Consumers Overtake India In Gold-Buying Frenzy

    Who could have seen this coming?

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    In November 2023, with gold trading around $1900/oz, we highlighted the beginning of a precious metal buying-binge from China, noting that the prcie for physical gold had never been more expensive at the time (while western gold prices were still below their prior record highs).

    Additionally we noted the total lack of demand for so-called ‘paper gold’ via ETFs as holdigs underlying these vehicles was declining, as investors rotated from paper to physical:

    “The rising interest in gold bars and coins was primarily driven by investors’ safe-haven demand, supported by global geopolitical instability and weak performance of investment products denominated in Chinese yuan.”

    Source: Bloomberg

    Now, a few months later, we get confirmation as The South China Morning Post reports that consumers in China bought 308.9 tonnes (10.9 million ounces) of gold in the first quarter, representing a 5.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

    Having burned out in Chinese gold ETFs, we recetly noted that, amid a notable pick up in capital flight that the Chinese had “grabbed gold by the throat.”

    Sure enough, as SCMP points out, Chinese consumers are increasing their appetite for gold, seeking to protect their assets amid a volatile stock market, a depreciating yuan and property doldrums, which analysts said would continue to boost international gold prices coupled with geopolitical uncertainties.

    Purchases of gold bars and coins, which largely reflect investment and hedging demand, surged by 26.8 per cent year on year to 106.3 tonnes, while gold jewellery sales declined by 3 per cent from a year earlier to 183.9 tonnes.

    “Gold represents the only safe asset for [Chinese consumers] to protect their wealth against domestic inflation, asset price declines as well as against geopolitical risks,” said Chen Zhiwu, the chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.

    “I expect Chinese household demand for gold to rise more in the future. And the Chinese central bank will also continue to purchase more gold to prepare for more geopolitical turmoil ahead.”

    China’s central bank bought 160,000 ounces of gold bullion in March, marking its 17th consecutive monthly purchase and bringing its total reserves to 2,262 tonnes (72.74 million ounces), as it aims to diversify holdings away from US bonds amid strained bilateral relations.

    “The escalation in gold holdings by global central banks, coupled with heightened gold demand in the Chinese market, has emerged as significant drivers propelling recent gold prices beyond market expectations,” the Bank of China said on Friday.

    “In the future, gold prices are expected to sustain their robust upwards trajectory, driven by ongoing global central bank efforts to de-dollarise, escalating geopolitical uncertainty, and shifts in the [US] Federal Reserve’s monetary policy,” the report said.

    China eclipsed India as the largest purchaser of gold jewellery in 2023, with consumption totalling 630 tonnes last year, representing an annual increase of 10 per cent.

    “The China story is one of the reasons supporting gold prices, but the global risk-off sentiment is also fuelling the demand,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, who expected China’s demand for gold to remain resilient in 2024.

    “Beyond China, whether the US can take inflation is another determinant for future gold prices, which is probably the biggest uncertainty.”

    However, as TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali points out another potential source of gold strength.

    With little trace in exchange data, buying activity must be OTC. However, price action in basis, forwards, and BoE gold suggest the buying program is price insensitive, has a sense of urgency, and deep pockets. This mysterious bid may point to curiously aggressive OTC buying activity, which appears to be highly correlated with acute currency depreciation pressures.

    Ongoing currency pressures could explain the sense of urgency behind this bid, with a high correlation with the CNY’s deviation from its fix inching towards its fixed band.

    Historically, this has been associated with a significant outperformance as the exceptional buying activity underpins a squeeze from those using the traditional playbook.

    Finally, US election dynamics are a positive for gold, according to TD Securities’ Bart Malek.

    A Republican administration is likely to push lower taxes, with spending largely unchanged. The resulting higher deficit projections, from the already very high numbers, should help gold, as it suggests higher inflation, lower real rates and continued central bank buying. A likely even more adversarial stance toward China and Iran taken by a Republican administration would also contribute to gold’s good fortune and should see oil well supported.

    Simply put, gold remains a good sanction-proof private- and central-bank-diversifier.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 19:20

  • Mammas, Don't Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Activists
    Mammas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Activists

    Authored by Roger Simon via The Epoch Times,

    I am writing this column in the hopes you will pass it around.

    To be honest, I write every column in the hopes it will be passed around, times being what they are. I’m arrogant enough to think what I have to say is at least somewhat needed. More humbly, G-d gave me a modicum of writing skill I have concluded for a reason and, more than ever in my life, I, at the age of 80, seem constrained to use it. I rarely stop, and when I do, all I seem to think about is what I’m going to write next, except when I’m playing tennis… And even then…

     

    Today’s title is, of course, a knock-off of “Mammas Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Cowboys,” written by Ed and Patsy Bruce, but made famous, as these things go, by others—the estimable Waylon Jennings and Willie Nelson. If you’ve been living under the proverbial rock and haven’t heard their fabulous recording—and even if you have; I listen to it all the time—it’s right here.

    It begins: “Cowboys ain’t easy to love/And they’re harder to hold.” If you replace “Cowboys” with “Activists,” it still makes sense, maybe more. Trust me—I’ve been there myself, years and years ago. We were wrong then. They’re worse now.

    This is all a long way around to what my theme is – the cause of the civilization-threatening unholy mess we are in with so many of our supposedly premier institutions of higher learning – indeed the world’s supposedly premier institutions of higher learning – Ivy League on down, turned into satanic campgrounds celebrating a group of bloodthirsty maniacs that make the Nazi Party seem like… well, let’s just leave it there.

    Except that 1939 has come back. From Wikipedia:

    “On February 20, 1939, a Nazi rally took place at Madison Square Garden, organized by the German American Bund. More than 20,000 people attended, and Fritz Julius Kuhn was a featured speaker. The Bund billed the event, which took place two days before George Washington’s Birthday, as a pro-‘Americanism’ rally; the stage at the event featured a huge Washington portrait with swastikas on each side.”

    Déjà vu all over again? The proverbial canary in the coal mine come back for yet another bow?

    Yes, but now it’s arguably worse. No more wrapping themselves in the flag. George Washington, no longer revered, is just another statue to be toppled. It’s “Death to America” all the way down at our leading universities and it’s spreading.

    It’s Rashida Tlaib’s world. We just live in it.

    Mammas, don’t let your babies grow up to be activists—see what I mean?

    I’m not talking about the loyal readers of this site. I’d be astonished if they were the kind of parents or grandparents who would countenance that kind of thing. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they (you) know plenty who are.

    Also, I know many fine people who have done their bests with their progeny only to find that years of critical race theory (flagrant or masked) and other assorted “woke” excrescences in the schools, not to mention the inability to concentrate brought on via the supposed gifts of Silicon Valley, have made it impossible anyway.

    When looking for blame for what happened to this generation of college students, half or near of whom seem to prefer Hamas to Israel, most point at the educational system itself, so neo-Marxist “woke” from kindergarten up it’s hard to imagine how they could be more so, and to the media who cheer it along, amplify it, and excuse its excesses.

    But it all starts in the home. In other words, someone was not home to give these young people guidance and rein in at least some of their excesses—the parents.

    It’s not been just an abdication of responsibility. In more cases than we would like to know, the parents may also have cheered them on, seeing in their rebellious children the vindication of their own, much more tepid, rebellions years ago.

    In yet other cases it’s more direct, and worse.

    As illustration, recall how, back in 2020, former president Barack Obama proudly announced his daughters’ participation in protests led by Black Lives Matter, an organization that proved to be a financial rip-off not just of other blacks, but of all who contributed to their racialist con game. (That link, by the way, comes to you via the oh-so-chic folks at Harper’s Bazaar.)

    Of the three causes mentioned, the parents may, in the end, be the most to blame, though needless to say a fourth element, our government, has its portion too, an amazingly large one, fomenting what Christopher Rufo sees as internal “color revolutions” via such amusements (for children yet) as “Drag Queens for Palestine.”

    It’s impossible to know how many of these protestors come from single-parent homes, but it’s almost certain to be a high percentage. This is a national disaster in itself.

    It’s hard to know in general how many of them there are or even who they are because they wear masks or keffiyehs covering their faces (for fear of COVID or, more likely, identification by future employers).

    What we are seeing on our campuses is the product of a family environment imploding or, sadly, already imploded. Much of this is and has been intentional.

    I apologize to all of you for being so “hobbyhorsical,” as Laurence Sterne termed it hundreds of years ago, on this topic, but the situation we are in is indeed civilizational. One can only praise the few governors—Texas, Florida—who have stood up to the onslaught and properly used the National Guard to return their universities to what was supposedly their real purpose—something called education.

    So let’s end with some good news. It was long overdue, but the Ivy League and similar institutions are finally losing their luster. It is being widely reported that many students and their families—not just Jewish ones—are deciding to go elsewhere, to the Midwest and South, for their studies that might be more even-handed.

    Others are deciding that college isn’t such a great thing after all and are going to trade schools. Good on them. (I wonder how many of those trade schools are having pro-Hamas demonstrations. Not many, I’d wager.)

    Finally, a word about a word—“activists.” It is used as well to characterize adherents of what we often think of as good causes. I say—bag it. Let’s leave that term to the Left. That way you don’t have to let your babies grow up to be “activists,” because, chances are, they’re not going to be the kind you want.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 19:00

  • "Do Not Disclose This Is An Ad": OnlyFans Creator Says Biden Admin Paid For "Full On Political Propaganda"
    “Do Not Disclose This Is An Ad”: OnlyFans Creator Says Biden Admin Paid For “Full On Political Propaganda”

    OnlyFans creator and TikTok star Farha Khalidi says that the Biden administration paid her to push “full on political propaganda,” and asked her not to disclose that she was advertising for them.

    Speaking with commentator Richard Hanania, Khalidi said she’d been asked to boast about Ketanji Brown Jackson after Jackson was nominated to the Supreme Court by President Biden.

    “I was doing full-on political propaganda,” she said, adding “The funny thing is they’re like, do not disclose this is an ad because technically it’s not a product so you don’t have to disclose it’s an ad. Because I think they just wanted, like, some edgy girl of color to just tell people — like when they nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson, they’re, like, ‘Can you say “as a person of color,” you know, that you feel “reflected”?’”

    Watch:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Khalidi has 1.8 million TikTok followers.

    Speaking of propaganda, and we’ll save you the eye bleach by not posting his picture… director Steven Spielberg is also helping the Biden campaign with reelection, NBC News reported on Friday.

    The filmmaker will help to “convey the president’s successes and his vision for the country” to delegates and viewers of the Democratic National Convention, scheduled to take place August 19-22 in Chicago. Spielberg has been meeting event organizers, who expect more than 5,000 delegates from across the country to officially select Biden as the presidential nominee.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 18:40

  • The Travesties Of The Trump Trials
    The Travesties Of The Trump Trials

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    Do not believe the White House/mainstream media-concocted narrative that the four criminal court cases – prosecuted by Alvin Bragg, Letitia James, Jack Smith, and Fani Willis – were not in part coordinated, synchronized, and timed to reach their courtroom psychodramatic finales right during the 2024 campaign season.

    These local, state, and federal Lilliputian agendas were designed to tie down, gag, confine, bankrupt, and destroy Trump psychologically and physically. They are the final lawfare denouement to years of extra-legal efforts to emasculate him.

    Indeed, the nation is by now worn out by these serial assaults on constitutional norms: the Hillary-funded Steele dossier subterfuge; the pre-election Russian laptop disinformation campaign; the two impeachments without special counsel reports; the impeachment Senate trial of a private citizen; the effort to remove Trump’s name from state ballots; the ongoing attempt to emasculate the Electoral College; or the radical opportune changes in state election laws to ensure massive mail-in balloting.

    Recently, Andrew McCarthy has reviewed in depth this coordination between White House personnel and prosecutors, long known and long denied by the left.

    Biden, for example, had complained to aides about Attorney General Merrick Garland’s tardiness in getting special federal prosecutor Smith appointed – and thus apparently ensuring Trump was convicted before the election.

    Nathan Wade, Fani Willis’s now-fired paramour prosecutor, visited and consulted with the White House counsel’s office when he was acting supposedly as a purely local county prosecutor. The January 6th left-wing-dominated congressional committee consulted with the Biden administration in sending forth its criminal referrals about Trump’s purported role in the protests. And to handle his pseudo-indictment against Trump, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg hired Biden Justice Department official Vincent Colangeio.

    Two, the prosecutors’ delayed criminal indictments and E. Jean Carroll’s civil suit were predicated only on Donald Trump running for reelection. After his 2020 defeat, the loss of the two Republican senate seats in Georgia, and the January 6 demonstrations/riot, Trump was written off by pundits as politically toxic.

    Then his historic comeback in the subsequent year terrified the left. The reboot prompted the subsequent indictments and suits years after the purported crimes. It was left unsaid that had Trump not been a conservative Republican and leading presidential candidate, he would have never been indicted.

    Three, most of the indictments either had no prior precedent in criminal law or will likely never be used again, at least against anyone left-wing. Moreover, many of the writs relied on manipulation of statutes of limitations.

    Neither Bragg nor any other local prosecutor had previously transformed a supposedly local affidavit misdemeanor into a supposed federal campaign finance violation, a gambit so preposterous that it had been passed on by federal attorneys.

    Letitia James was the first New York Attorney General to indict a state resident for the supposed crime of overvaluing real estate to obtain a loan, which was paid back timely and in full, to the profit of lending institutions. No bank, after auditing Trump’s assets and viability to pay back loans, was unhappy to loan to him. But all were quite happy to profit from the hefty interest—and would likely be happy to loan to him again.

    James sought to make Trump a criminal without ever finding a crime, much less a victim. Nor, until the checkered and unethical career of Fani Willis, had any local prosecutor ever indicted an ex-president for a supposedly improper phone call questioning whether all the state’s votes had been fully counted.

    Alvin Bragg’s case was nonexistent given the statute of limitations on supposed misdemeanors committed over six years prior—until Bragg transmogrified the accusations of minor crimes into felonies and, with them, extensions granted supposedly due to the COVID lockdowns.

    In Carroll’s case, her unsubstantiated accusations of a sexual assault were also well past the statute of limitations until a left-wing New York legislator and unapologetic Trump hater passed a special law—a veritable bill of attainder aimed at Trump—waiving the statute of limitations for a year in cases of accusations of long-past sexual assault in the state of New York.

    Four, all the indictments and suits took place in either blue cities, counties, or states. And most of the jury pools in or near New York, Atlanta, or Miami were or will be heavily Democrat. So far, the New York judges who have overseen Trump’s civil and criminal trials—Justices Engoron, Kaplan, and Merchan—were all liberals, appointed by Democrat or liberal politicians, and some have donated to Democrat causes. They were not shy about expressing disdain for defendant Trump. No changes in venues were ever allowed.

    Five, all the prosecutors, Bragg, James, Smith, and Willis, are likewise either Democrats or associated with liberal causes. In the case of Bragg, James, and Willis, all three ran for office and raised money on promises and boasts of getting Donald Trump. And all three have now set the precedent that local and state prosecutors can warp the law and use it to go after an ex-president and leading presidential candidate of the opposite party for naked political purposes.

    Six, all these cases were equally applicable to high-profile Democrat politicos. E. Jean Carroll’s defamation suit was the most laughable of all the court dramas, but its outline and protocols just as easily could have applied to Tara Reade. She came forward to accuse candidate Biden of having sexually assaulted her years earlier—roughly about the same period’s as Carroll’s fluid timelines. Her story is about as believable or unbelievable as Carroll’s. But the difference was that whereas the media canonized the delusional and self-contradictory Carroll as a useful anti-Trump tool, it demonized Reade as a crazy loon and liar—and a potential impediment to Biden’s 2019-20 primary campaign.

    Bragg had to torture the law to fabricate a federal campaign finance indictment against Trump. But Hillary Clinton clearly violated federal campaign statutes—and was variously fined—when she tried to hide her “opposition research” payments to Christopher Steele as “legal expenses.” In truth, Steele was hired and paid to concoct a fake anti-Trump dossier and likely should have been barred from working for a presidential campaign given he was not a U.S. citizen.

    In the case of Smith, simultaneously with his case against Trump, his twin special prosecutor, Robert Hur, found that Joe Biden had unlawfully removed classified files for much longer than Trump (30 years plus), in a much less secure location (his rickety garage), and without a president’s authority to declassify his documents. Moreover, he had disclosed their contents to his ghostwriter, who destroyed evidence under subpoena by Hur. Yet unlike Trump, Biden was not charged, given that Hur claimed that Biden, in his opinion, was so old and amnesiac that he might win sympathy rather than a conviction from a jury.

    Willis indicted Trump for supposedly trying to pressure officials to “find” missing Trump ballots, thus supposedly violating “racketeering” statutes, as he oversaw an attempt to find troves of ballots he thought had been cast for him. Of course, in the same state, Stacy Abrams, after losing the gubernatorial race of 2018, claimed she had actually won, despite losing by over 50,000 votes. She sued to overturn the election and then made a celebrity-political career touring the nation, falsely claiming she was the real governor and her victorious opponent was an illegitimate governor.

    For that matter, in 2016, left-wing organizations, celebrities, and thousands of political operatives sought to overturn the Trump victory by appealing to the electors to renounce their states’ popular vote tallies and thus become “faithless electors.” In sum, there was a true conspiracy, or, better, a “racketeering” scheme, to use Willis’s parlance, to coordinate various groups to overturn the constitutional duties of electors to throw the election to Hillary Clinton. Clinton, along with the likes of ex-president Jimmy Carter and soon-to-be House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries, would continue to deny that Trump was the legitimately elected president.

    In sum, the number of suits against and indictments against Trump grew in correlation to his political fortunes. They were designed in the election year 2024 to do what Democrat voters likely cannot. They are ridiculous and sui generis, and will never be used against anyone other than Trump. They have done more damage to democracy, the rule of law, and equal justice to the law than all of the antics that Trump is accused of.

    Moreover, they will set in motion a dangerous tit-for-tat cycle of weaponization that threatens the very constitutional order of the United States.

    If Trump is elected to restore the rule of equal justice, will a Republican special counsel revisit Robert Hur’s work and find ex-President Biden quite capable of standing trial for the crimes Hur has already investigated and confirmed?

    Will then a new Republican-appointed FBI director order a SWAT-like raid, with Fox News forewarned and Newsmax reporters on the scene, to descend into the Biden beach house?

    Will county and state prosecutors in Utah, Montana, and Oklahoma feel that to stop this cycle of illegality, they must charge the Biden family members by bootstrapping local indictments onto federal crimes?

    Will conservative women in the future come forward in Arkansas, Idaho, and Alabama to claim that in their past, they now suddenly remember that decades ago a prominent Democrat candidate harassed them? Will their right-wing lawyers cherry-pick the proper red-state judge?

    Will conservative district attorneys find ways to indict Joe Biden on the various imaginative bookkeeping and “loan repayments” used to disguise the fact his corrupt family received well over $20 million from illiberal foreign interests, much if not all of it camouflaged to avoid income taxes?

    Will some South Carolina legislator get a bill of attainder passed in the legislature, ending the statute of limitations for a year for all those in 2016 who sought to undermine the electors and flip them to Hillary Clinton?

    In August or September, will a right-wing state prosecutor and a conservative judge find that Joe Biden’s creative bookkeeping warrants a $450 million fine, payable before appeal?

    And will Republican officials and judges in purple states move to get Biden’s name off the ballot?

    Such scenarios are endless and, given the current precedents, could all be justified as desperate deterrent measures to shock the left into ceasing their efforts to sabotage our constitutional system and rule of law.

    A final note.

    There is a divine order of balance in the world, one known variously by particular civilizations as kismet, nemesis, karma, or what goes around, comes around payback. We’ve already seen such forces at work: Sen. Schumer at the head of a mob at the doors of the Supreme Court, calling out threats to justices by name, only now finding pro-Hamas thugs circling his own home. Or Democrats during the Trump years straining to find ways to invoke the 25th Amendment, now humiliated into claiming a non-compos-mentis Joe Biden is “sharp as a knife.”

    Tragically for the country, to stop this left-wing madness, the Trump travesties may not be the end, but the beginning of precisely what the Founders feared.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 18:20

  • Blinken Urges Hamas To Take 'Extraordinarily Generous' Ceasefire Deal
    Blinken Urges Hamas To Take ‘Extraordinarily Generous’ Ceasefire Deal

    Israeli officials have reportedly given Hamas an ultimatum, saying the group has “one last chance” to reach a deal, according to Axios. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday, “If there is a deal, we will suspend the operation” – in reference to the planned Rafah ground offensive.

    He added that “The release of the hostages is a deep priority for us.” Following Oct.7 and the first hostage/prisoner swap which took place on November 22, the number of Israeli hostages (and dual nationals) which remain in Hamas captivity stand at 129. However, Israeli leaders have long acknowledged the likelihood that many of these are already deceased.

    Via AP

    Hamas is still pressing for a full and permanent cessation of all hostilities, along with full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, while Tel Aviv is just pushing for a temporary pause in fighting.

    According to Al Jazeera, this is ultimately unlikely to sway Hamas negotiators:

    Israel wants to “have its cake and eat it too. They want to get their captives back out of Gaza and into Israel. But then they want to be able to continue the war on Gaza after a brief pause,” Mohamad Elmasry, media studies professor and political analyst at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera.

    US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Saudi Arabia on Monday, his first stop in a broader Middle East tour focused primarily in Gaza, but he’s pushing Saudi-Israel normalization.

    Blinken has called on Hamas to accept Israel’s latest and “extraordinarily generous” proposal for a Gaza truce. “Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel,” the US top diplomat said.

    “The only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas. They have to decide and they have to decide quickly,” Blinken said from Riyadh. “I’m hopeful that they will make the right decision.”

    This is where things stand via Reuters:

    A source briefed on the talks said Israel’s proposal entailed a deal to accept the release of fewer than 40 of the roughly 130 hostages believed to be still held in exchange for freeing Palestinians jailed in Israel, and a second phase of a truce consisting of a “period of sustained calm” – Israel’s compromise response to a Hamas demand for permanent ceasefire.

    Among these 40 would be any remaining children, women, sick and elderly hostages. Both sides have been this close before, but never with Washington applying this much pressure to see a deal through to the finish line.

    Blinken has sought to assure Arab states and Palestinian leaders that the US cannot support an attack against Rafah “in the absence of an (Israeli) plan to ensure that civilians will not be harmed.” 

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    Blinken and the Biden administration are still hoping to secure a broader deal involving Saudi Arabia, which he says is “potentially very close to completion.” It hinges on Saudi-Israeli diplomatic recognition, and in return the basis for recognition of a Palestinian state by Israel.

    “To move forward with normalization, two things will be required: calm in Gaza and a credible pathway to a Palestinian state,” Blinken said in fresh remarks.

    However, Hamas is believed to have several intact battalions inside Rafah, and the Netanyahu government has vowed to see through its operation until it has accomplished the total eradication of Hamas. To do this, Israel believes it must got into Rafah with full ground and air might, but it will result in humanitarian catastrophe for the over one million civilians currently taking refuge there.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/29/2024 – 18:00

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