Jul 30

Today’s News 30th July 2021

  • Dubai To Launch "Drone Box" To Reduce Police Response Time To Crimes 
    Dubai To Launch “Drone Box” To Reduce Police Response Time To Crimes 

    Police in Dubai will use quadcopter technology to reduce emergency response time anywhere in the city to help increase security.

    Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum tapped Israeli drone company Airobotics for their “Drone Box” platform to help police respond within one minute — instead of 4 minutes 40 seconds to incidents anywhere in the metro area, according to the Government of Dubai. 

    Airobotics’ website offers some insight into the durability of the new drone. 

    The official launch is slated for the World Expo in October. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum also tweeted details about the new program. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Drone Box replaces security personnel with a fast and efficient autonomous drone fleet deployed across the metro at a low cost.

    Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum was also briefed on the “progress of the Oyoon project, an artificial intelligence (AI) program implemented to raise Dubai’s profile as one of the world’s safest cities.” 

    Dubai Police continue to invest in a surveillance state with more than 300,000 security cameras monitoring the metro area around the clock. 

    Besides ground-based security cameras using facial recognition technology to identify faces, drones will also employ the nanny state technology. This will ensure police can identify criminals and drug dealers. 

    … and say goodbye to civil liberties because there are no civil liberties in Dubai as the use of surveillance tech on citizens is widespread. 

    Some have said the virus pandemic has allowed the world to “sleepwalk into a surveillance state.” We wouldn’t doubt that at all. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/30/2021 – 02:45

  • Environmentalists Take Aim At UK's North Sea Oil Plan
    Environmentalists Take Aim At UK’s North Sea Oil Plan

    Via OilPrice.com,

    The High Court yesterday agreed to hear a case brought by environmental campaigners claiming that the government’s plans for the North Sea oil basin are unlawful.

    Three activists are arguing that the Oil and Gas Authority’s (OGA) new strategy for the continental shelf, which was released earlier this year, conflicts with its legal duty to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.? 

    Justice Thornton said that the campaigners had “presented an arguable case” which was “in the public interest”.

    The defendants have been named as the OGA and the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kwasi Kwarteng.

    The case is expected to be heard before the end of the year, with a decision made in early 2022.

    Rowan Smith, a solicitor at law firm Leigh Day, which is representing the campaigners, said:

    “With climate change high on the public agenda, our clients are perfectly entitled to ensure that the government is sticking to its commitments on net-zero emissions.

    “They believe that the OGA’s strategy unlawfully contradicts these commitments, and unlawfully allows the production of oil and gas that does not benefit the UK economy as a whole.”

    In response, the OGA said that its strategy “which includes net-zero requirements on industry, is the primary tool the OGA has to hold the industry to account on emission reductions.” 

    Under the new “North Sea Transition Deal”, the government and private sector will pour £16bn into the North Sea oil industry over the next decade in a bid to reduce carbon emissions.

    As part of the deal, ministers will be able to block future oil and gas exploration on the continental shelf if it breaches environmental standards.

    Despite its push towards renewable energy sources, the UK remains dependent on oil and gas resources from the basin.

    Industry figures show that the offshore sector met about 45 percent of the UK’s overall energy needs in 2019.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/30/2021 – 02:00

  • Escobar: Requiem For An Empire, A Prequel
    Escobar: Requiem For An Empire, A Prequel

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The inexorable imperial rot will go on, a tawdry affair carrying no dramatic, aesthetic pathos worthy of a Gotterdammerung.

    Assaulted by cognitive dissonance across the spectrum, the Empire of Chaos now behaves as a manic depressive inmate, rotten to the core – a fate more filled with dread than having to face a revolt of the satrapies.

    Only brain dead zombies now believe in its self-billed universal mission as the new Rome and the new Jerusalem. There’s no unifying culture, economy or geography knitting the core together across an “arid, desiccated, political landscape sweltering under the brassy sun of Apollonian ratiocination, devoid of passion, very masculine, and empty of human empathy.”

    Clueless Cold Warriors still dream of the days when the Germany-Japan axis was threatening to rule Eurasia and the Commonwealth was biting the dust – thus offering Washington, fearful of being forced into islandization, the once in a lifetime opportunity to profit from WWII to erect itself as Supreme World Paradigm cum savior of the “free world”.

    And then there were the unilateral 1990s, when the once again self-billed Shining City on the Hill basked in tawdry “end of history” celebrations – just as toxic neocons, gestated in the inter-war period via the gnostic cabal of New York Trotskysm, plotted their power takeover.

    Today, it’s not Germany-Japan but the specter of a Russia-China-Germany entente that terrorizes the Hegemon as the Eurasian trio capable of sending American global domination to the dustbin of History.

    Enter the American “strategy”. And predictably, it’s a prodigy of narrow mindedness, not even aspiring to the status of – fruitless – exercise in irony or desperation, yielding as it is from the pedestrian Carnegie Endowment, with its HQ in Think Tank Row between Dupont and Thomas Circle along Massachusetts Avenue in D.C.

    Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class is a sort of bipartisan report guiding the current, bewildered Crash Test Dummy administration. One of the 11 writers involved is none other than National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The notion that a global imperial strategy and – in this case – a deeply impoverished and enraged middle class share the same interests does not even qualify as a lousy joke.

    With “thinkers” like these, the Hegemon does not even need Eurasian “threats”.

    Wanna talk to Mr. Kinzhal?

    Meanwhile, in a script worthy of Dylan’s Desolation Row rewritten by The Three Stooges, proverbial Atlanticist chihuahuas are raving that the Pentagon ordered the partition of NATO: Western Europe will contain China, and Eastern Europe will contain Russia.

    Yet what’s actually happening in those corridors of European power that really matter – no, baby, that ain’t Warsaw – is that not only Berlin and Paris refuse to antagonize Beijing, but mull how to get closer to Moscow without enraging the Hegemon.

    So much for microwaved, Kissingerian Divide and Rule. One of the few things the notorious war criminal really got it was when he noted, after the implosion of the USSR, that without Europe “the US would become a distant island in the coastline of Eurasia”: it would dwell “in solitude, a minor status”.

    Life is a drag when the (global) free lunch is over and on top of it you need to face not only the emergence of a “peer competitor” in Eurasia (copyright Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski) but a comprehensive strategic partnership. You fear that China is eating your lunch – and dinner, and nightcap – but still you need Moscow as the designated enemy of choice, because that’s what legitimizes NATO.

    Call The Three Stooges! Let’s send the Europeans to patrol the South China Sea! Let’s get those Baltic nullities plus pathetic Poles to enforce the New Iron Curtain! And let’s deploy Russophobic Britannia Rules the Waves on both fronts!

    Control Europe – or bust. Hence the Brave New NATO World: white man’s burden revisited – against Russia-China.

    So far, Russia-China had been exhibiting infinite Daoist patience in dealing with those clowns. Not anymore.

    The key players in the Heartland have clearly seen through the imperial propaganda fog; it will be a long and winding road, but the horizon will eventually unveil a Germany-Russia-China-Iran alliance rebalancing the global chessboard.

    This is the ultimate Imperial Night of the Living Dead nightmare – hence these lowly American emissaries frantically scurrying around multiple latitudes trying to keep the satrapies in line.

    Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, China-Russia build submarines like there’s no tomorrow equipped with state of the art missiles – and Su-57s invite wise guys to a close conversation with a hypersonic Mr. Kinzhal.

    Sergey Lavrov, like an aristocratic Grand Seigneur, took the trouble of enlightening the clowns with a stark, erudite distinction between rule of law and their self-defined “rules-based international order”.

    That’s too much for their collective IQ. Perhaps what they will register is that the Russian-Chinese Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation, initially signed on July 16, 2001, has just been extended for five years by Presidents Putin and Xi.

    As the Empire of Chaos is incrementally and inexorably expelled from the Heartland, Russia-China are jointly managing Central Asian affairs.

    In the Central and South Asia connectivity conference in Tashkent, Lavrov detailed how Russia is driving “the Greater Eurasian Partnership, a unifying and integrational outline between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans that is as free for the movement of goods, capital, labor and services as possible and which is open to every country of the common continent of Eurasia and the integration unions created here.”

    Then there’s the updated Russian National Security Strategy, which clearly outlines that building a partnership with the US and hitting win-win cooperation with the EU is an uphill struggle: “The contradictions between Russia and the West are serious and are hard to solve.” By contrast, strategic cooperation with China and India will be expanded.

    A geopolitical earthquake

    Yet the defining geopolitical breakthrough in the second year of the Raging Twenties may well be China telling the Empire, “That’s enough”.

    It started over two months ago in Anchorage, when the formidable Yang Jiechi made shark fin’s soup out of the helpless American delegation. The piece de resistance came this week in Tianjin, where Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng and his boss Wang Yi reduced mediocre imperial bureaucrat Wendy Sherman to stale dumpling status.

    This searing analysis by a Chinese think tank reviewed all the key issues. Here are the highlights.

    – The Americans wanted to ensure that “guardrails and boundaries” are established to avoid a deterioration of U.S.-China relations in order to “manage” the relationship responsibly. That did not work, because their approach was “terrible”.

    – “Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng hit the nail on the head when he said that the U.S. “competition, cooperation and confrontation” triad is a “blindfold” to contain and suppress China. Confrontation and containment are essential, cooperation is expedient, and competition is a discourse trap. The U.S. demands cooperation when it is in need of China, but in areas where it thinks it has an advantage, it decouples and cuts off supplies, blocks and sanctions, and is willing to clash and confront China in order to contain it.”

    – Xie Feng “also presented two lists to the U.S. side, a list of 16 items requesting the U.S. side to correct its wrong policies and words and deeds toward China, and a list of 10 priority cases of China’s concern (…) if these anti-China issues caused by the U.S. side’s bent are not resolved, what is there to talk about between China and the U.S.?”

    – And then, the sorbet to go with the cheesecake: Wang Yi’s three bottom lines to Washington. In a nutshell:

    1. “The United States must not challenge, denigrate or even attempt to subvert the socialist road and system with Chinese characteristics. China’s road and system are the choice of history and the choice of the people, and they concern the long-term welfare of 1.4 billion Chinese people and the future destiny of the Chinese nation, which is the core interest that China must adhere to.”

    2. “The United States must not try to obstruct or even interrupt China’s development process. The Chinese people certainly have the right to a better life, and China also has the right to modernization, which is not the monopoly of the United States and involves the basic conscience of mankind and international justice. China urges the U.S. side to expeditiously lift all unilateral sanctions, high tariffs, long-arm jurisdiction and the science and technology blockade imposed on China.”

    3. “The United States must not infringe on China’s national sovereignty, let alone undermine China’s territorial integrity. The issues related to Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong are never about human rights or democracy, but rather about the major rights and wrongs of fighting against “Xinjiang independence”, “Tibet independence” and “Hong Kong independence”. No country will allow its sovereign security to be compromised. As for the Taiwan issue, it is a top priority (…) If “Taiwan independence” dares to provoke, China has the right to take any means needed to stop it.”

    Will the Empire of Chaos register all of the above? Of course not. So the inexorable imperial rot will go on, a tawdry affair carrying no dramatic, aesthetic pathos worthy of a Gotterdammerung, barely eliciting even a glance from the Gods, “where they smile in secret, looking over wasted lands / Blight and famine, plague and earthquake, roaring deeps and fiery sands, / Clanging fights, and flaming towns, and sinking ships, and praying hands”, as Tennyson immortalized it. Yet what really matters, in our realpolitik realm, is that Beijing doesn’t even care. The point has been made: “The Chinese have long had enough of American arrogance, and the time when the U.S. tried to bully the Chinese is long gone.”

    Now that’s the start of a brave new geopolitical world – and a prequel to an imperial requiem. Many a sequel will follow.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/30/2021 – 00:00

  • How US And Russian Nuclear Arsenals Evolved
    How US And Russian Nuclear Arsenals Evolved

    Over 75 years have passed since the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and, as Statista’ Niall McCarthy points out, more than 13,000 nuclear warheads are still scattered across the world from silos in Montana to isolated corners of European airbases and even to the ocean depths where ballistic missile submarines lurk as a deterrent nearly impossible to detect.

    Hiroshima was the first of two atomic bombings in 1945 and it involved a 15-kiloton device while the weapon used in the attack on Nagasaki three days later had a 22 kiloton yield. Modern nuclear warheads are far more powerful with the U.S. Trident missile yielding a 455 kiloton warhead while Russia’s SS ICBM has an 800 kiloton yield.

    Together, the United States and Russia possess more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons with a stockpile of nearly 13,000 between them, according to the Federation of American Scientists.

    Even though 13,000 seems like an awfully large number (which it is), it represents a huge reduction on the number of warheads in existence at the height of the Cold War.

    This infographic shows how stockpiles evolved, particularly when various arms limitation treaties are taken into account.

    Infographic: How U.S. And Russian Nuclear Arsenals Evolved | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The number of warheads fell significantly in the wake of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty which was signed by the U.S. and USSR in 1987 at a time when both countries possessed more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.

    The trend towards disarmament continued after the Berlin Wall came down and accelerated when the Soviet Union collapsed.

    Despite the decline, it isn’t all good news as states are now modernizing their existing stockpiles, adding new types, new delivery systems and committing to possessing the weapons long-term.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 23:40

  • California NIMBY Hypocrites Threaten Biden's 'Green' Agenda
    California NIMBY Hypocrites Threaten Biden’s ‘Green’ Agenda

    Rich liberal Californians may talk a big game – driving their (coal powered) Teslas to various ‘green’ charity events where they try to one-up each other over who’s got the smallest carbon footprint.

    But when it comes to actually ‘going green’ – there are limits. Big ones.

    For example, via Bloomberg:

    Like many who live in this pastoral valley near Livermore, Calif., Chris O’Brien is a believer in renewable energy. The 61-year old logistics business owner outfitted his barn with solar panels that power his 50-acre ranch where he grows oat hay, raises horses and grazes cattle.

    “Everyone here is in favor of green energy,” O’Brien said.

    But that support has its limits. When he learned of plans to build a giant solar farm next door to his property—the kind of project that would help meet the state’s clean energy goals—O’Brien decided he had to fight it. It was exactly the sort of thing that would spoil the rural landscape that he says should be protected by a local anti-development measure.

    “It would be a sea of glass,” said O’Brien. “It disturbs the environment.”

    O’Brien is part of a cadre of ranchers, farmers and ‘environmentalists’ opposing what would be the largest solar plant in the Bay Area – a clash which Bloomberg notes ‘offers a preview of potential disputes that could slow the ambitious push by California and the Biden Administration to develop clean energy to combat climate  change.’

    The NorCal NIMBYs have banded together to oppose the Aramis Renewable Energy Project – which would cover around 350 acres of private pastureland with over 300 eight-foot-high solar panels which can generate 100 megawatts of carbon-free electricity. The installation, developed by Intersect Power, would be enough to power 25,000 homes every year. The proposed site – located around 50 miles east of San Francisco, also includes battery energy storage.

    “Anyone who understands the scale of the climate crisis knowns we need to go faster and we need to build at a much larger scale,” according to Sierra Club regional director, Carlo De La Cruz, who supports the Aramis project. “California is one of the most progressive states when it comes to climate policies, but we still need to build more clean energy to meet our climate targets.”

    Opponents of the project – including O’Brien’s “Save North Livermore Valley” group and the Ohlone Audubon Society, recently sued the county of Alameda for approving the farm – claiming that the renewable energy installation would violate an open-space preservation measure approved by voters. Some of the same citizen groups have also opposed a separate, smaller installation that was recently canceled by a different developer.

    “We moved out here 25 years ago, and one of the reasons we did is the zoning only allows one house for 100 acres,” said O’Brien. “There is nothing in the zoning or general plan that permits this type of use.”

    Biden has set an ambitious target of ridding carbon from the U.S. grid by 2035. To meet its goal of a carbon-neutral grid by 2045, California will need to triple its annual solar and wind installations, according to a recent state study. That means the state may need to develop as much as 3.1 million acres—almost as large as the state of Connecticut—for solar and wind projects by the middle of the century, according to a different report by the Nature Conservancy.  

    While solar and wind farms don’t come with environmentally damaging fossil-fuel extraction and the polluting smokestacks of coal and natural-gas plants, they generally require more acres to develop. Land can be farmed around wind turbines, but that’s trickier with solar plants.

    And some of the new clean energy projects will likely need to be built closer to the cities and towns that will use the power. -Bloomberg

    According to the authors of the Nature Conservancy report, many areas of the Western US have both high potential for renewable energy and high conservation values – which sets the stage for conflicts. Those disputes can be avoided with proper planning and mapping of potential project locations where large-scale solar and wind projects can be built with the least environmental impact, according to author Erica Brand.

    It isn’t just bitter Livermore liberals throwing a fit. In 2019, locals in Southern California’s San Bernardino County convinced officials to ban construction of renewable energy projects in certain areas.

    Back to Livermore – Intersect Power CEO Sheldon Kimber says the solar project has received all necessary government approvals, and has received “an enormous amount of support” from local political leaders, businesses, residents and environmental groups. According to Kimber, the lawsuit won’t impact the timing of the project, which is slated to break ground in the middle of next year, with an operating goal of mid-2023.

    “Realistically, the only concern we haven’t mitigated is ‘we just don’t want it here’,” said Kimber. “Those minority voices try to scare people, saying companies like mine are going to just blanket California with solar. And the reality is, that is preposterous.“

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 23:20

  • One Shocking Chart Has Californians Trembling With Fear 
    One Shocking Chart Has Californians Trembling With Fear 

    Readers know by now that the Western US is facing a megadrought, heat waves, fallow lands, wildfires, water shortages, grasshopper plague, and deteriorating reservoir conditions. 

    The latest data from the California Department of Water Resources provides a map of water levels for 12 major reservoirs in California. 

    What’s concerning is that nearly all reservoirs in the state are way their historical average marks that suggest stricter water conservation measures are ahead. Some of these reservoirs are at risk of having their hydroelectric power plant cease operations because the water level is too low to turn the turbines. 

    The latest US Drought Monitor data shows much of California is in an “extreme drought.” Relief in sight? How about not. 

    It’s only a matter of time before Californian officials prepare for water shortage measures. There’s also the possibility the first-ever federally declared water shortage could be announced. 

    Some Californians are trembling with fear as their water supplies dwindle in some of the worst droughts in decades. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 23:00

  • Cruz: Biden's 'Crazy-Ass Ideas' Will Lead To GOP Majority
    Cruz: Biden’s ‘Crazy-Ass Ideas’ Will Lead To GOP Majority

    Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Politics (emphasis ours),

    It was Madison Cawthorn’s turn to pay for lunch, and because the freshman congressman bought the barbeque Wednesday, he got to make a short speech behind closed doors.

    The North Carolina lawmaker told his more senior colleagues that “our people” only want to “swing for the fences” while Democrats, at least in his limited experience, were happy to move their plans forward “inch by inch.” And then, Cawthorn wrapped his remarks by urging the Republican Study Committee to “be more willing to accept a limited victory.”

    Sen. Ted Cruz sat nearby silently picking at his brisket. 

    One of the original heroes of the Tea Party and the scorched-earth strategy it embodied, Cruz hadn’t walked over from the Senate to talk about wins on the margins. He warned his House counterparts that “Democrats are deadly serious” about their agenda, and said they would “go to any lengths” to pass it. He complained that too many in the Grand Old Party still treated governing “like we are playing croquet in the back lawn.” Cruz said it was time “to hold the line.”

    This was the message the Texas senator delivered to a receptive conservative congregation in the basement of the Capitol on Wednesday. He said things would get worse for them before they got better. Much worse. Cruz has a pendulum theory of politics. So while he came to offer some hope, “to encourage you,” he began with a rather bleak view of things.

    The way Cruz sees it, President Biden’s honeymoon has turned into “an absolute train wreck.” At home, illegal immigrants are pouring across the southern border unchecked, gasoline prices continue to climb, and inflation alarm bells are ringing off the hook, ignored. Abroad, things are not much better. The White House surrender on the Nord Stream pipeline amounts to “a generational geopolitical mistake” that will line the pockets of “the next dictator in Russia” long after Vladimir Putin is dead and gone. And the Department of Justice’s dismissal of charges against visiting Chinese researchers was a disturbing sign of an administration trying to “make nice with the Community Party of China.”

    The frustrated Republicans in the room nodded along at the doom-and-gloom, waiting on the promised good news. “Why is it that I’m optimistic then?” Cruz asked. “I’m optimistic because there’s a natural tendency in politics of the pendulum going too far in one direction.” This is reason for hope, in his estimation, because the White House is overreaching on every front, “and every time we see some crazy-ass ideas, we should be encouraged.”

    It will be morning in America soon because “the country is waking up.” Cruz argued that the 2020 electorate was made up of people who couldn’t take any more mean tweets from the last president, so they pulled the lever “for nice Uncle Joe.” He added that those same voters “are now looking at his agenda and saying, ‘This is not what we signed off on.”

    “There is a saying that history doesn’t repeat but sometimes it rhymes — I think Joe Biden is Jimmy Carter 2.0,” Cruz said, mixing an old maxim with current GOP messaging. “And the good news is it took Jimmy Carter to give us Ronald Reagan,” continued the two-term senator who finished second in the 2016 GOP primary and undoubtedly still harbors White House ambitions.

    It is going to be rough for Republicans until someone can get on a debate stage with Biden. With Democrats in control of both houses of Congress, Cruz said, “they can ram through some really bad policy, they can spend a ton of money and raise taxes — and they are going to do it.” Until next year, Cruz told the assembled Republicans, “we have a responsibility to slow the damage.”

    He puts their odds of taking the House at “80-20.” The Senate, because of a difficult map with more red seats than blue ones up for grabs, is “50-50.” Until Nov. 8, 2022, comes, Cruz continued, they basically have two choices: Republicans can “go down swinging as the Democrats ram through some terrible policy,” or “we roll over and let them do it to the country.” He didn’t tell them that either option would be pleasant — “look, there are consequences when you lose both houses of Congress and the White House.”

    But the call to arms is second nature for Cruz. His brand was obstruction during the Obama years, and he came of age in the upper chamber goading the GOP into being more, not less, receptive to the conservative grass roots. These days, his messaging is writ large in Cruz campaign merchandise. During spring break season back in March, there were tank tops and trucker hats that would have been unthinkable a few short years ago. Thirty bucks buys a Cruz supporter a T-shirt emblazed with an exaggerated and clearly self-depreciating image of the senator’s mullet. The caption reads, “McConnell in the front, MAGA in the back.”

    The campaign swag drew instant headlines. It also told a story about shifting factions within the Republican Party. As a freshman senator during the Obama years, Cruz irritated not just a Democratic president, but his own party’s leaders as well. Reelected to a second term in the Trump era, Cruz now finds himself simpatico with GOP brass in a political party trying to weather the Biden administration and an aggressive congressional Democratic majority.

    Perhaps the invitation to Wednesday’s lunch also underscores the rightward shift of Republicans. After all, the Republican Study Committee is the largest and most influential GOP caucus on Capitol Hill. The group’s chairman, Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, has rallied the party, huddling regularly with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and turning the organization into a forum for potential 2024 contenders to audition. Members of the committee certainly liked what Cruz had to say Wednesday. They were particularly pleased with his pandemic politics.

    In short order, Cruz condemned the re-masking recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control as “idiotic, not science,” mocked the speaker of the House as “Queen Pelosi” for fining vaccinated members who don’t don face coverings, and concluded that, with its latest masking policy, the administration “has ‘jumped the shark.’” He added, “We’re likely to see no Republicans complying with it in the states.”

    While those arguments drew nods of agreement, Cruz spent most of his time railing against the president’s massive infrastructure package. “I’m worried about where the Senate is going to go,” he admitted, “and I recognize the old adage in the House that ‘Democrats are your opponents and the Senate is the enemy.’ There is some truth to that.”

    Before he spoke to the RSC, one of the 10 or so Republicans open to the White House spending plan had texted him about the infrastructure funds that would head to Texas. In his telling, Cruz typed back, “I’m like, ‘How about you don’t take our money, then give it back to us?’” The room let out a collective laugh at that, and Cruz related the risk he sees his colleagues taking by backing any part of the initiative.

    There are two proposals that make up that package. The first, the so-called $1.2 trillion “hard” infrastructure bill, would fund physical projects like roads and bridges. It has some bipartisan support. The second, a $3.5 trillion bill, takes a much broader definition of infrastructure to fund child care, health care and education priorities. Republicans uniformly oppose that part, which the White House hopes will include a pathway to citizenship for some of those in the country illegally. To circumvent a filibuster, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to pass it by going the budget reconciliation route.

    Cruz warned that this two-track method would lead to the GOP’s own train wreck if enough of his Senate colleagues balked at conservatives’ objections and sided with Democrats. A vote for the “hard” package, he argued, would only grease the skids for the much broader, and far more expensive, component. He offered the RSC a fly-on-the-wall perspective of the contentious closed-door conference meetings, saying that about a dozen Republicans “want to cut a deal with all of their hearts.” He said there has been plenty of yelling.

    “We’re having, in our lunches, knock-down, drag-out fights, with the rest of us going, ‘What are you doing?’” An infrastructure bill might be bipartisan, but he predicted the result would make the GOP into the president’s stooges: “Joe Biden is gonna run around and say, ‘Look, it’s all wonderfully bipartisan — I got these happy little Republicans celebrating the spending.”

    If his colleagues don’t fight off both bills, if they cut a deal, they won’t just give Biden a win, Cruz argued; they would “put Republican fingerprints all over the inflation bomb that is exploding right now.” What is worse, they risk opening up “a backdoor way to repeal the filibuster.”

    When Republicans controlled Congress and the White House, the rules governing reconciliation ruined many of their plans. Specifically, it was the Senate parliamentarian, who determines the procedure by which the chamber can avoid a filibuster and allow legislation to pass by a simple majority. That official can be overruled with a vote by the vice president — a case Cruz says he made “multiple times” in the Oval Office to then-President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence during the effort to repeal Obamacare. “I got laughed out of the room every time I made it,” Cruz recalled. “They said, ‘No, we’re not going to do that because Mitch [McConnell] doesn’t want to.” 

    Democrats have no qualms about Senate norms. The difference now, he said, is that Vice President Kamala Harris has a more expansive view of the rules. That, and “their side is actually willing to do what it takes to ram their agenda through.” Cruz fears Democrats will use the arcane process as cover to also push through amnesty provisions. After that: HR1, the far-reaching voting rights bill backed by Democrats. “If you hear the phrase ‘election infrastructure,’” he told the room of Republicans, “run and hide.” He was half joking.

    What about the other Joe, though? The moderate Democrat from West Virginia who opposes abolishing the filibuster? Cruz said he and Joe Manchin get along just fine, but after nine years in the Senate, he has never seen his colleague “once stand up to Chuck Schumer on any issue that mattered where he was the deciding vote.”

    If that happens again, he predicted, the door to abolishing the filibuster would be wide open.

    Perhaps Cruz and his colleagues might take inspiration from Texas Democrats, the ones who skipped out of Austin earlier this month to bring the Republican-controlled state legislature to a halt. Rep. Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina gave “a tongue-in-cheek” suggestion: “What if all the Republican senators fled to Austin and holed up in The Driskill hotel to deny Democrats a quorum?”

    “You had me at Driskill,” Cruz joked, noting how former President Lyndon Johnson “used to sit there on the cowhide sofas drinking bourbon.” But Republicans won’t be sipping whiskey in exile anytime soon, at least not in trying to check Biden. Democrats have the numbers to run rough-shod over them even if they skip town. What should they do then? Cruz told his Republican brethren to lean on Manchin with “the carrot and the stick” — to call the West Virginian’s “oil and gas” donors if need be.

    Manchin’s office did not respond to RCP comment request.

    To get through the current presidency, to make sure Biden becomes another Jimmy Carter and to make straight the path for another Reagan, Cruz counseled the GOP study committee that they needed to show their base “we’re fighting with everything we’ve got as happy warriors.” But the Texan delivered a dire warning. “From y’all’s perspective,” he cautioned, “don’t count on the Senate to save you.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 22:40

  • Radioactive Material Disappears En Route To Michigan
    Radioactive Material Disappears En Route To Michigan

    Radioactive material headed to Michigan from an Ohio company never made it to its destination, a filing by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission revealed. In its “Current Event Notification” report for Wednesday, the commission that regulates commercial nuclear power plants and other civilian uses of nuclear materials in the United States said the Ohio Bureau of Radiation Protection had informed officials about a missing shipment involving Prime NDT Services.

    The Ohio radiation bureau learned from Prime NDT that a source of Iridium-192 was shipped through an unnamed carrier on July 12 from a facility in Strasburg, Ohio, to a facility in Michigan, the NRC said. Iridium-192 is a radioactive isotope of iridium, which can be used in industrial gauges that inspect welding seams in such equipment as pipelines and in medicine to treat certain cancers, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The material can also be used to make a dirty bomb.

    According to the Detroit News, Prime NDT Services is an Ohio-based inspection company that performs testing services in the energy and industrial industries, many involving pipelines and other energy industry equipment.

    The nuclear commission report categorized the isotope as a “Category 2” level of radioactive material, but did not specify the quantity of material that was being shipped or how it was packaged.

    “Category 2 sources, if not safely managed or securely protected, could cause permanent injury to a person who handled them, or were otherwise in contact with them, for a short time (minutes to hours),” the report said. “It could possibly be fatal to be close to this amount of unshielded radioactive material for a period of hours to days.”

    According to the NRC classification scale, Category 1 nuclear materials are for strategic uses and include quantities in excess of 5 kilograms of uranium 235 or uranium-233 or 2 kilograms of plutonium. Five kilograms equals slightly more than 11 pounds. Think plutonium which Doc Brown stole from the Libyans.

    Category 2 materials contain more than 1,000 grams of U-235 or more than 500 grams of U-233 or plutonium, or in a combined quantity of more than 1,000 grams. One thousand grams is equal to 2.2 pounds.

    At the bottom is Category 3: materials would be those classified with more than 15 grams of U-235 or U-233 or plutonium alone or combined. Fifteen grams equals a little more than 8 ounces.

    A member of the Basra environment commission’s radiation department scans radioactive material, Iridium-192, that had gone missing in Iraq for three months in 2016. AFP via Getty Images

    So here’s the problem: “As of July 21, the source has not been delivered …” the Ohio commission’s notice to the NRC reads.

    It was unclear how long shipping the material to Michigan would have been expected to take. The company is based in Ohio just south of Akron, but the Michigan delivery point was not specified. The carrier transmitting the material was redacted in the NRC notice.

    The incident report refers to the shipment as a “Lost Source.”

    The carrier “is aware of the situation and believes that the package was delayed at their facility. On July 20, (the common carrier) informed Prime NDT Services Inc. that the package could not be located.” The information was revised Thursday to include the departments and entities notified.

    According to the CDC, for industrial uses, Ir-192 would be packaged in “pencil-like metal sticks of solid Ir-192 or small pencil-like tubes that contain pellets of Ir-192.”

    External exposure to the material, the CDC says, can cause burns, acute radiation sickness and even death. Swallowing any Ir-192 pellets could cause burns in the stomach and intestines (and since this is the CDC, one naturally has to wear a mask in its immediate presence).

    The material, while having medical and industrial uses, may also be used in what is known as “dirty bombs.”

    According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization that works to prevent attacks and accidents involving nuclear material, “a radioactive ‘dirty bomb’ or radiological dispersal device made by combining radioactive material with conventional explosives to spread it …  could cause significant short- and long-term health problems for those in the area and could leave billions of dollars in damage due to the costs of evacuation, relocation and cleanup.”

    Radioactive materials used in those devices, the NTI says, “are dispersed across thousands of commercial, industrial, medical and research sites … and many of them are poorly secured, particularly during transport when they are vulnerable to theft. In fact, the same isotopes used for life-saving blood transfusions and cancer treatments in hospitals around the world— such as cesium-137, cobalt-60 and iridium-192— could be used to build a bomb.”

    The event notification report for the material intended to be shipped to Michigan stated that multiple agencies were alerted, including the Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Emergency Management Agency. Also, the notice said, “the state of Tennessee has been informed.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 22:20

  • At Least 12 Million Households Face Eviction As Moratorium Ends
    At Least 12 Million Households Face Eviction As Moratorium Ends

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    The eviction moratorium ends July 31. Millions of households are behind with no confidence in making payments.

    With millions of renters at risk Biden Asks Congress to Extend Federal Eviction Moratorium

    State and local governments have struggled to distribute $47 billion in federal money aimed at helping tenants who can’t pay rent because of the pandemic-triggered downturn, leaving many people at risk of being forced out of their homes when the moratorium expires.

    Just $3 billion of the aid authorized by Congress in December and March had been delivered to landlords and tenants as of June 30, the Treasury Department said in a report last week. 

    Meanwhile, many landlords have been squeezed because they have been unable to collect rent but remain on the hook for taxes, maintenance and other bills.

    The moratorium, which originated from an executive order signed by then President Donald Trump last August, shields tenants who have missed monthly rent payments from being forced out of their homes if they declare financial hardship. They still owe the back rent.

    The moratorium was originally set to expire Dec. 31, 2020, but Congress extended it until late January, and the CDC has extended the order three times.

    in June, the Supreme Court rejected an emergency request to clear the way for evictions after the Biden administration said it would extend the moratorium for one final month. Justice Brett Kavanaugh voted with the 5-4 majority to keep the moratorium in place. However, he issued a one-paragraph concurrence saying he believed the moratorium was unlawful, but was willing to leave it in place for July. “In my view, clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary for the CDC to extend the moratorium past July 31,” he wrote.

    Census Department Data

    I created the lead chart from a Census Department Data Feed. 

    Here are a few more charts.

    Confidence in Ability to Pay Mortgage 

    Mortgage Payment Status

    Rent Payment Status

    These numbers are way understated. 

    Q: How do I know that?

    A: Every chart is missing 72,166,927 households in which the Census Department does not have tenure data. 

    The total is 50,922,215 Renters + 127,127,307 Homeowners + 72,166,927 Unknowns. 

    Some of those unknowns are not current or in trouble even if they are current.

    Four-Point Synopsis 

    • 7.43 million renters are not current

    • 5.95 million homeowners are not current

    • 8.71 million homeowners have little or no confidence in ability to pay their mortgage

    • 12.71 million renters have little or no confidence in ability to pay their rent

    Significant Other Details

    • The above numbers are undoubtedly understated because the status of 72.17 million households is unknown.

    • Rent plus back rent is due August 1.

    • There will be no more rent moratoriums without Congressional action as per Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

    • On September 1, Federal unemployment benefits expire. 

    US 2nd-Quarter GDP Exceeds Pre-Pandemic High But Huge Concerns Remain

    Earlier today I reported US 2nd-Quarter GDP Exceeds Pre-Pandemic High But Huge Concerns Remain

    This has been a tale of two recoveries. Those with assets and jobs, and those without. 

    Many millions of people will not see this as an end to the recession.

    Prediction Question

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    What, Me Worry?

    Fed Says Inflation Might be Higher and More Persistent Than They Expect

    Making matters worse for everyone struggling, the Fed is hell bent on increasing inflation. 

    For details, please see Fed Says Inflation Might be Higher and More Persistent Than They Expect

    And finally, the Progressives in congress want an energy tax that will raise the price of literally everything.

    For discussion, please see The Stagflation Threat is Very Real but Congress Holds the Key

    Wow. What a setup!

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 22:00

  • Israel Becomes First Country In World To Push 3rd COVID Shot For Already Vaccinated
    Israel Becomes First Country In World To Push 3rd COVID Shot For Already Vaccinated

    In what’s a likely sign of things to come elsewhere, Israel is now pushing a third jab, or follow-up booster for those who’ve already received their two vaccine rounds, for the elderly people over the age of 60.

    Israel’s prominent Haaretz newspaper revealed Thursday the country will be the first in the world to start doing so after government approval, writing that Israel “will start offering a third COVID vaccine shot to people over 60 starting on Sunday, after the Health Ministry approved the move on Thursday.”

    Via NBC News

    “The booster shots will be given to those over 60 who received their second dose at least five months ago. Israel is the first country to announce that it will begin giving booster shots,” the report says.

    Israeli President Naftali Bennet unveiled the plan to the nation in a televised address:

    “I’m announcing this evening the beginning of the campaign to receive the booster vaccine, the third vaccine,” Bennett said.

    “Reality proves the vaccines are safe. Reality also proves the vaccines protects from severe morbidity and death. And like the flu vaccine that needs to be renewed from time to time, it is the same in this case.”

    Recent reports have indicated internal health ministry disagreement on whether the third jab program should start for vaccinated people 60 years old, 65 or 70. The rationale is that the elderly are considered to have weaker immune systems compared to the broader population. 

    Some 60% of Israel’s total population has been vaccinated. The third round of a Pfizer-BioNTech shot is also in response to fears that the vaccine’s effectiveness is waning the face of the delta variant’s spread. Within the eligible age group, those that received their second dose at least five months ago have access to the booster. 

    Some are already calling for a “different vaccine” altogether to fight delta and other variants…

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    Axios notes that: 

    Pfizer on Wednesday said it has data that shows that a third shot “strongly” increases antibody levels against the Delta variant.

    …Israel has reported a total of 867,240 confirmed cases and 6,462 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

    Recently Israel’s health ministry boasted that the two-dose vaccine is 91% effective against severe illness and 88% effective against hospitalization, but again it appears that officials are concerned the effectiveness is being reduced especially in the elderly population. Likely it’s now only a matter of time before this extends to the broader, younger demographic as well.

    From the start, many among the ‘vaccine hesitant’ or skeptical argued that the groundwork is being laid to eventually administer the COVID-19 jab with the regularity of an annual flu shot. This prediction appears to slowly be coming to fruition, particularly given Bennet’s word choice in announcing approval of the third jab… “like the flu vaccine that needs to be renewed from time to time,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 21:40

  • Biden Administration Plans To Keep Troops In Syria Indefinitely
    Biden Administration Plans To Keep Troops In Syria Indefinitely

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    As the US is pulling troops out of Afghanistan and changing its mission in Iraq, a Biden administration official made it clear in comments to Politico that there are no plans to pull troops out of Syria.

    “I don’t anticipate any changes right now to the mission or the footprint in Syria,” the official said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. There are currently about 900 US troops in northeast Syria.

    “In Syria, we’re supporting Syrian Democratic Forces in their fight against ISIS. That’s been quite successful, and that’s something that we’ll continue,” the official continued.

    While the US claims its presence in Syria is to help fight ISIS, the region where US troops are deployed is where most of the country’s oil fields are. The occupation keeps the vital resource out of the hands of the Syrian government, which is part of Washington’s economic warfare against the country.

    The US maintains crushing economic sanctions on Syria. The sanctions specifically target the energy and construction sectors, making it difficult for the country to rebuild after 11 years of war and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. According to the UN, the number of Syrians that are close to starvation is at 12.4 million, or 60 percent of the population.

    On Monday, President Biden announced the US “combat” mission in Iraq would be coming to an end, but US troops will remain in the country. There are currently 2,500 US troops in Iraq, and it’s not clear if any will be removed as Washington changes its mission to a strictly advisory one.

    Getty Images

    Multiple media reports cited anonymous US officials who said changes to troop levels in Iraq would be minimal. One reason the US wants to hold on to its bases in Iraq is that they support the occupation forces in Syria.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 21:20

  • Watch: Masking, Vaccines, Lockdowns, Enslavement – Psychic 'Bro' Predicted All Of This Last Year…
    Watch: Masking, Vaccines, Lockdowns, Enslavement – Psychic ‘Bro’ Predicted All Of This Last Year…

    While he may not have anything on Mystic Meg, the ‘Psychic Bro’ in the clip below somehow managed to predict all of this last 18 months shitshow from officialdom

    “…you don’t need the mask, the mask is about compliance… next they’re going to tell you to take the vaccine…and because they know [you] like to do what you’re told… they are hoping that everyone just complies…”

    And here’s where the Canadian ‘bro’ gets really psychic…

    “… next they’re going to tell you ‘sorry, the vaccine isn’t as effective as we told you it was gonna be’… so now you still have to wear your mask…”

    The forecasts continue… and time after time, he nails it…

    “…what happened? The same amount of people died, everything is the same, and now they’re gonna put you back on lockdown and bring it all the way until July (2021) and then they will do the whole thing again… just to be able to bring you off lockdown in September.”

    Seriously!!!

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    And the endgame is clear…

    “..if you idiots haven’t worked it out, it’s a perpetual cycle that you never get out of… and it’s way to take your rights, your freedoms, close your business, take your wealth…”

    “Why?”

    “So you become dependent on government.”

    “Why?

    “If you’re independent, the government works for you like it’s supposed to. If you depend on the government to give you a paycheck to fed your family every month… now the government rules you…”

    “So instead of a middle class, we have the government upper class, and the lower class dependents that rely on the government to survive…”

    “…in other words, we have a slave class… and that’s what they’re trying to do.”

    Enjoy ‘Pyschic Bro’:

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 21:00

  • Teachers' Union Head Doesn't Rule Out Strike As States Opt For Right To Choose Over School Mask Mandate
    Teachers’ Union Head Doesn’t Rule Out Strike As States Opt For Right To Choose Over School Mask Mandate

    Authored by GQ PAN via The Epoch Times,

    American Federation of Teachers (AFT) president Randi Weingarten on Wednesday said it is necessary to enforce that all K-12 students and staff wear masks in order to keep schools safely open, and that her organization wouldn’t rule out striking over states that ban mask mandates.

    During an interview with MSNBC, Weingarten was asked about the AFT’s position on states like Texas, where public schools can no longer require that masks have to be worn on their campuses under Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order. Abbott has made it clear he will not rescind the order.

    “Texas isn’t the only state that has tried to basically ban mandates, either on masks or on vaccines,” host Chuck Todd said. “What is the position of the union on this, and is this something that would be worth striking over?”

    Weingarten replied, “We want schools to reopen and have a safe and welcoming climate in the fall.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The AFT head last year had led an effort to block schools from reopening, citing health concerns and calling parents “privileged” for demanding in-person instruction. She successfully lobbied the CDC to release a more conservative version its reopening guidelines.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) latest recommendation is that all students and adults should wear masks in schools.

    According to Weingarten, as there is neither herd immunity nor enough of a vaccinated population. schools need to be masked up again in response to the Delta variant of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus. She also implied that those who oppose mandating the CDC recommendation are politicizing the issue of school reopening.

    “If we want kids to be in school and we want everybody to be safe and we want to keep schools open, this is what the scientists, this is what the pediatricians, are telling us we need to do because of Delta,” she said.

    “And let’s just all try to put the politics to the side and try to do this to get schools open.”

    In Texas, schools have been prohibited from requiring that any student, teacher, parent, or visitor wear a mask while on campus since June 5. In a statement released Tuesday, the governor’s office affirmed that this policy is not going to change.

    “Governor Abbott has been clear that the time for government mandating of masks is over—now is the time for personal responsibility,” said Abbott’s press secretary, Renae Eze.

    “Every Texan has the right to choose whether they will wear a mask or have their children wear masks.”

    “Vaccines are the most effective defense against contracting COVID and becoming seriously ill, and we urge all eligible Texans to get the vaccine,” she added. “The COVID vaccine will always remain voluntary and never forced in Texas.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 20:40

  • Bumble Offers Staff Unlimited Paid Leave, Will Close Offices 2x A Year For 'Wellness Breaks'
    Bumble Offers Staff Unlimited Paid Leave, Will Close Offices 2x A Year For ‘Wellness Breaks’

    Bumble, the ‘female-friendly’ dating app that gave its entire global workforce (about 700 people) a paid week off in June to “de-compress” and “focus on themselves” after a “traumatic” plague year, is taking its policy of prioritizing the mental well-being of its workers one step further. The firm said Thursday that it would allow all its employees an “unlimited” amount of paid vacation each year – so long as their managers approve it.

    The firm says it’s “understood” that the offer of unlimited leave is predicated on employees getting all of their work done. Additionally, the firm says it will close all global offices for one week every six months (to be sure, the firm will keep a skeleton crew working to address any issues with the app, or user complaints).

    Bumble President Tarek Shaukat said the pandemic forced to rethink its approach to mental “wellness” in the workplace.

    “It’s becoming increasingly clear that the way that we work, and need to work, has changed and our new policies are a reflection of what really matters and how we can best support our teams in both their work and life,” said Bumble president Tarek Shaukat.

    If these policies seem tailored to elicit buzzy headlines bursting with approval from the lamestream press, it’s probably because they are. Chances are, this is merely more virtue-signaling from Silicon Valley as it competes to convince all the top young talent that tech is the place to be, not banking.

    As the BBC is well aware, Bumble isn’t the first firm to try the unlimited vacation policy (though, typically, it’s unpaid beyond a certain point). Most who tried it found that staff actually take less vacation, not more, when they don’t have a set number of weeks per year which they are “owed”.

    Ben Gately, chief operating officer at UK software firm CharlieHR, ended up offering staff other benefits such as more flexible working hours instead.

    “People didn’t take enough [holiday],” Ben Gately told the BBC at the time.

    “People are pretty bad at taking holiday, we’re all scared to do it because we have to do our handovers and pass stuff over and meet deadlines.

    “There’s a huge amount of anxiety about not knowing the limit. A bunch of our team came to us and said: ‘Actually we’d love to know where the line is. Is it okay to take 35 days? Is it okay to take 25 days? Where should I draw the line?’ Because the reality is that it’s not actually unlimited.”

    But Bumble clearly knows this, too, which is why they’re also launching a host of additional leave policies seemingly designed to tug at the virtue-signaler’s heart strings. These include: a minimum of 15 days bereavement leave for staff who suffer miscarriages, and an additional 20 days a year in vacation for staff who have been victims of “domestic violence and other violent crimes”.

    Bumble founder Whitney Wolfe Herd became the youngest woman ever to take a company public when Bumble IPO’d in February. Unfortunately for the firm’s shareholders, its stock price has shed nearly 40% of their value from its IPO highs.

    And as the firm tries to turn things around, we somehow doubt that encouraging workers at your firm to do the bare minimum while footing the bill for generous vacation time isn’t the way to turn things around. What’s next? Will Bumble extend free vacation time for all ‘workers who menstruate’ to take off during their periods?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 20:20

  • "Confirmed Tornado" Rips Through Town Just North Of Philadelphia
    “Confirmed Tornado” Rips Through Town Just North Of Philadelphia

    Multiple tweets indicate a powerful tornado has demolished buildings in the Bensalem Township, a township in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, that borders the northeast section of Philadelphia. 

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    Alertpage Inc. reports a GMC dealership has experienced a “major collapse.” 

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    The real-time public safety news Twitter handle says, “major damage throughout the area [Bensalem] – damage to multiple dwellings & reports of trees down.”

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    The area was under a tornado warning when a “confirmed” tornado ripped through the township. 

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    A car dealership appears to have collapsed. 

    Here’s a video of more damage to commercial buildings. There are reports of people “screaming underneath the debris.” 

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    From inside the car dealership. 

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    More views of the damage and storm. 

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    *This story is still developing… 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 20:10

  • Containers Are Being Built At A Record Pace. It's Still Not Enough
    Containers Are Being Built At A Record Pace. It’s Still Not Enough

    By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

    When will the container capacity crunch finally ease? For an early indicator, keep an eye on production of the humble 40-foot dry cargo box. If the volume and cost of new containers pull back, supply chain pressures are abating. Unfortunately for beleaguered cargo shippers, these bellwethers now imply the opposite: that the scramble for container capacity is growing even more intense.

    New container prices still rising

    On Tuesday, the world’s largest container-equipment leasing company, Triton International, announced record results and provided the latest intel on box production.

    The price of a new container, which had stabilized at around $3,500 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) earlier this year, has risen again and is now at $3,800 per TEU. Prices are “at unprecedented levels,” said John O’Callaghan, Triton’s global head of marketing and operations, during the call with analysts.

    The price of a new container at this time two years ago, pre-COVID, was around $1,600 per TEU, less than half the current level.

    What’s particularly telling is that the price is rising at the very time Chinese factories are churning out more new boxes than they ever have before.

    Record production in China

    According to Triton’s estimate, which excludes sales to nonleasing and nonshipping buyers, factories built around 2.6 million TEUs of dry (nonrefrigerated/nontank) containers in H1 2021 — more than the 12-month totals in most years.

    It estimated that 2021 production could reach just over 4.5 million TEUs, more than double the annual totals in the prior two years and almost 30% above the record set in 2018. The global container equipment fleet could increase 8% year on year.

    Charts: Triton International 2Q 2021 presentation. Sources: Drewry Annual Report and internal sources

    Numbers from Drewry on global production of all container types show the same trend. As of May, Drewry reported that 2.66 million TEUs overall had been produced year to date, with factories on track to build at least 5 million TEUs this year. That would bring this year’s tally at least 18% higher than the all-time high in 2018. 

    As previously reported by American Shipper, virtually all containers are built in China, where construction is dominated by three Chinese entities: CIMC Group, CXIC and Dong Fang. These three builders accounted for eight of out 10 containers built between January and May, according to Drewry. 

    During a quarterly call in February, Tim Page, interim president and CEO of container-lessor CAI International, asserted, “The factories are behaving differently than they have in the past. They don’t have any interest in increasing production at the expense of price. I think it’s a new dynamic in our industry. And I think it’s going to stick. They’re more focused on maintaining high container prices.” 

    Five months after that comment, the data confirms that Chinese factories have indeed increased production sharply, yet demand has been so strong that they haven’t had to sacrifice anything on price.   

    Inventories still very low

    Continued low levels of new container inventory confirm the strength of demand. “What’s being built is being absorbed,” said O’Callaghan. “What’s sitting on the ground is already booked and at most represents two to three weeks of supply. Despite production being at record levels, there is no spike in inventory.” 

    Yet another sign of the shipping demand strength is the price of older containers sold for nonshipping uses. 

    Just as virtually all older container ships that can still float are being employed, not scrapped, older containers are being kept in service longer. That leaves fewer to be sold in the secondhand market, which has pushed up disposal (resale) prices for aging 40-foot high-cube containers to 2.5 times levels seen a year ago. 

    For container-shipping market participants such as investors and cargo shippers, disposal prices are another bellwether to watch. When the global capacity crunch finally eases, many more older boxes will become available for resale and these prices will fall back.

    Congestion to persist into 2022?

    Strong consumer demand is only one driver of the container shortfall. Port congestion also plays a pivotal role, by tying up equipment.  

    Triton CEO Brian Sondey said during the call, “If you look at the number of vessels anchored outside of major ports like Los Angeles, it briefly got better during the second quarter but now it has gotten a little bit worse again. 

    “When speaking with our shipping line customers, I think the general feeling is that these various operational disruptions are not likely to clear soon. 

    “I’m not sure anyone has a perfect estimate for when we’ll see container flows get back to normal levels of velocity,” Sondey continued. “But what I hear is that it’s not likely this year — that a lot of these disruptions will carry forward into 2022. It’s the high continuing volumes that make it difficult to get the debottlenecking done.”

    Container leasing profits soar

    Congested supply chains are highly painful to cargo shippers but extremely advantageous to equipment lessors like Triton.

    Triton reported adjusted net income of $144.2 million for the second quarter of 2021 compared to $60.1 million in the second quarter of 2020. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.14 topped the consensus estimate for $1.96.

    Triton is using the current demand boom to lock in revenues via “very long-duration, high-return leases,” said Sondey. The average lease duration for containers ordered in 2021 is 13 years, far above the historical norm of five to seven years.

    “Container leases are so long for two reasons,” he explained. “One is the strength of the market and that we like long-duration leases. It helps us lock in high returns. It’s also driven by the fact that container prices are extraordinarily high. Agreeing to very long-duration leases is a way for the shipping lines to mitigate even higher lease rates [for shorter durations] that we would need to charge right now, given how high container prices are.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 20:00

  • Biden Admin Targets New Homeowner Aid That Could Reduce Mortgage Payments By Up To 25%
    Biden Admin Targets New Homeowner Aid That Could Reduce Mortgage Payments By Up To 25%

    As if the ongoing moratorium on evictions (which shows literally zero signs of ever going away) wasn’t enough government “relief” for those suffering at the hands of the government mandated Covid lockdowns, the Biden administration is now going to be implementing a policy to reduce monthly payments by up to 25% for borrowers with federally backed mortgages who are at the end of forbearance. 

    The program is going to allow those with mortgages from the Federal Housing Administration to extend the length of their mortgages and lock in lower monthly principal and interest payments, according to the Wall Street Journal. The changes are targeted toward those who took advantage of government forbearance programs that allowed them to skip payments for up to 18 months and still can’t make payments on time – which we’re guessing is going to amount to precisely everybody.

    Most borrowers who took on forbearance plans at the beginning of the pandemic will start to see them expire around September and October and the country’s national foreclosure ban expires July 31. About 75% of new home loans are currently backed by the federal government, the Journal reports.

    Bob Broeksmit, president and chief executive of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said that the new modifications are “an important additional step to give people the opportunity to stay in their homes after they had a hardship during the pandemic.”

    As of now, about 1.55 million homeowners haven’t made mortgage payments in the last 90 days. The “bulk” of these homeowners have forbearance plans and are at risk of foreclosure. They make up a 2.9% slice of the 53 million active mortgages, down from 4.4% in August and September 2020, the report notes.

    Many of the borrowers who the new program will affect “have lower incomes and make smaller down payments than people with other government-backed loans”, the report notes. Many have also been hit by job losses as a result of the pandemic. Advocating for the program, Broeksmit continued: “People don’t enter into mortgage borrowing with the notion that they can’t afford the payment.”

    And in addition to this planned new aid, a $47 billion federal program has already been implemented to help tenants who can’t pay rent due to Covid. The Journal notes that state and local governments are “struggling to distribute the money,” however. 

    Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading said: “If a reduction in monthly costs helps keep that borrower in their home until they are back on their feet, then it is a win for the borrower, policy makers, and Uncle Sam, as he owns the credit risk.”

    We’re not sure that you know exactly what the words “credit risk” mean, Issac. But, we digress.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 19:40

  • Dr. Gottlieb Explains Why US COVID Hot Spots May Have Reached Point Where Delta Surge Reversed
    Dr. Gottlieb Explains Why US COVID Hot Spots May Have Reached Point Where Delta Surge Reversed

    A few days ago, we shared some analysis from Goldman Sachs and other investment banks projecting that the surge across the US in newly diagnosed COVID cases attributed to the delta variant would soon fade, just as outbreaks in the UK, Continental Europe and India all have. They’ve been closely monitoring the situation because it’s now a key factor in their economic growth projections, and most expect delta will have a mild impact in heavily vaccinated Europe.

    Now, Bloomberg has apparently caught on.

    While hospitalizations and deaths are clearly higher in areas where vaccination rates are lower, rates are still well below their levels from just a few months ago. And although Dr. Anthony Fauci would have you believe that Delta might cause the end of the world as we know it, his isn’t the only view on the matter. Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former director of the FDA, believes delta will peak within the next two to three weeks.

    And after breaking the data down to the regional level, Bloomberg has apparently spotted some trends that suggest as Delta’s global conquest has been characterized by “hyperspeed spikes in infections that eased dramatically after about two months.”

    The first US outbreaks that caught officials’ eye were in Missouri and Arkansas, and they both started in earnest around the end of May, per BBG.

    They noted that the rest of the country will be keeping a close eye on both states (along with a handful of others, including California).

    The rest of the US will be watching those states closely as infections spread. The cases are prompting authorities to reconsider masking and other public-health measures, but many state and local governments are doing so gingerly and only after outbreaks are well underway. In Florida’s Miami-Dade County, Mayor Daniella Levine Cava said Wednesday that she would require masks again at indoor county facilities such as libraries.

    Bloomberg also cited the following tweet from Dr. Gottlieb where he explained how Rt, a virus’s effective reproductive number, plays into forecasts of the virus’s spread. The logic behind it is pretty simple: If Rt falls below 1, then the virus’s spread should start to slow.

    Gottlieb cited data from covidestim, a project with contributors from Yale School of Public Health, Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Stanford Medicine, showing the Rt rate in the worst hit states is already trending toward 1. When the numbers did this in the UK, seen as being just a few weeks ahead of the US, cases quickly started falling off. 

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    Just some food for thought.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 19:20

  • Over 10,000 Troops To Take Part In Major Joint China-Russia War Drills
    Over 10,000 Troops To Take Part In Major Joint China-Russia War Drills

    China’s defense ministry on Thursday unveiled that the PLA military is set to host major joint military drills with Russia in early August – to include more than 10,000 troops from both countries in China’s Ningxia Hui autonomous region, in the north-central part of the country.

    “The purpose of this exercise is to consolidate and develop a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia,” defense ministry spokesman Wu Qian announced in a press briefing.

    The Vostok 2018 joint exercises in Eastern Siberia, via AP.

    At a moment both countries are experiencing deteriorating relations with the United States, including Beijing increasingly in a sanctions tit-for-tat battle with Washington over Hong Kong, the spokesman additionally said, “It will also further demonstrate the determination and ability of both sides to combat terrorist forces and jointly maintain regional peace and security.”

    Russia for its part is currently in a standoff with the US over cyberattack allegations and threats. President Biden actually said in a speech this week that potentially a future cyberattack scenario couple end up in a “real shooting war with a major power.” No doubt, he had primarily Russia and China in mind.

    Further details of the August war games in China were detailed in South China Morning Post as follows: 

    Wu said Chinese troops will come mostly from the Western Theatre Command, China’s largest military area, which oversees regions including Xinjiang and Tibet. Russian troops will be from the Eastern Military District. A joint command center will be established and exercises will focus on aircraft, artillery and armored equipment. There will also be training to improve joint reconnaissance, early warnings, electronic and information attacks and joint strikes.

    It’s only been within the past few years that historically cold and tense China-Russia relations have warmed as both found themselves under the eye of a common enemy, resulting in recent joint war games unprecedented in size.

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    Beijing also has likely timed these hugely provocative games, which will be watched by the Pentagon closely, as a “message” and warning to the Western military build up in the South China Sea, and as the US and Japan are more openly pushing the Taiwan independence issue. Britain also has a pair of warships currently in the South China Sea, ultimately en route to Japan where they will maintain a ‘permanent’ presence as a rapid response and ostensibly ‘counterterror’ force.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/29/2021 – 19:00

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