- The Optimism-Fatalism Historical Cycle
The Optimism-Fatalism Historical Cycle
Authored by Gregory Copley via The Epoch Times,
No fundamental form of human behavior, for better or worse, disappears forever.
Cycles of wealth, fear, or frustration force changes, and they bear an uncanny similarity to Shakespeare’s “Seven Ages of Man.” We are, above all else, predictable.
The present decline, distortion, or much-heralded “end of democracy” is overstated. Still, it is difficult to disagree that the present cycle of democracy—beginning in the 18th century—has run its course. It is a human concept of behavior and, as with all things human, has its lifespan before it becomes feeble and sclerotic, corrupt and cynical, and ultimately a parody of what was intended in the flush of innocent youth.
Throughout the world, “democracies” now see themselves beset by the internal competition for office by career politicians whose goal, before all else, is to attain and retain power. The compromises of dignity, nobility of purpose, and service to the electorate are the hallmarks of the age. These compromises have led to the thing aspiring politicians once saw as the bane of human existence: autocracies or, worse, rampant and totalitarian tyrannies. But autocracies cloak themselves with the language of democracy.
Just as Africa, freed now from the coercion of major external powers, has resorted to removing governments by force, we see politicians in power using their office to suppress, deter, or remove their challengers for office.
The Communist Party of China (CCP) introduced the concept of “lawfare” to outmaneuver its domestic and international opponents: using legal mechanisms to constrain an adversary. This concept has been adopted vigorously by “democratically elected politicians” worldwide, so there are now few societies where “lawfare” is not used to eliminate legitimate opponents and constrain and channel society at large.
The spirit of democracy is nowhere to be seen.
Waste no time on mourning. Democracy has had its day and will return when the time is right.
But, equally, waste no time nurturing the self-delusion that moral or intellectual superiority lies in the pretense of democracy, the pretense that societies still embody what they once set out to represent. But we, most of us, insist on our certainty of the moral superiority of our own society because we have nowhere else to go. We cannot embrace our historical or geopolitical opponents’ rights to their own certainties.
But we do not know how best to reorganize our own society without the unthinkable collapse of that same democracy to force our actions.
The birth and death of states have been a preoccupation of scholars since humanity began to structure into durable communities. In 2006, I created—with the help of Greek Cypriot scholar Marios Evriviades—the words “cratocide” (the murder of nations) and “cratogenesis” (the birth of nations) for the book, “The Art of Victory.” Shortly afterward, we added the word “cratometamorphosis” to describe the total reorganization of societies.
Collapse is always the prerequisite to “cratometamorphosis.” Theoretically, this reorganization and revitalization of society should be feasible before total collapse creates a situation when no other option is available. But the very safeguards we have put in place over decades and centuries to protect our present structures also safeguard the corrupted wreckage they have become.
So if, as it appears, many societies—and by no means only those that thought of themselves as democratic—are waiting painfully for that total collapse so that they may be free to recreate themselves “closer to the heart’s desire,” then why is little thought given to that future society, that utopia?
During the years of difficulty that beset so many during the Industrial Revolutions, new concepts were conjured, speculatively, out of whole ideals. There were also years of uncertainty in societies in flux, during which new belief systems were devised.
These religions and ideologies all rippled down the ages and continue to inspire followers, often in the face of historical evidence that they failed here and there but were never revised to truly meet new requirements. Indeed, modern democracy itself—mirroring several iterations in the Hellenic states and earlier in the Indus Valley civilizations over the past 10,000 years—was just such a “revivalist creed,” and its new advocates failed to understand (or even question) why, in its earlier iterations, it had ultimately collapsed.
Is it possible that at our present impasse, there is some belief that technology—artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and so on—will define or create a new social framework? Have we, in so embracing “technology,” outsourced responsibility for devising ways in which humans can best work together? Certainly, technology has enabled the implementation of mass guidance of vast numbers of the human population, like the “murmuration of starlings,” the uncanny, but now understood, mass coordination of flocks of starlings in flight.
This “mass guidance” of humans is the mass psychosis tendency, a fundamental self-protection mechanism in human behavior designed to create herd protection.
That mass psychosis, of course, is what we saw during the COVID-19 crisis. However, it presupposes that human societies can be made to walk willingly and fatalistically toward the scenario outlined in the book, “1984,” by George Orwell. It may be man’s good fortune that economic dislocations—now being evidenced in the tremblors that shake the values of currencies and the viability of major economies—will gradually erode the pace of technological progress, enabling human society to regroup on more elemental or human lines.
To “start again” with new concepts for societal organization—governance—will inevitably involve considering concepts that, whether we realize it or not, have probably been played out before. However, it would be ideal to recognize that the framework begins with the sovereignty of each individual and the requirement for each individual to respect each other individually to achieve progress and human reproduction.
At least that optimistic framework can reemerge for a while until we see politics once more fatalistically reach the point where all respect is once again lost, and the desire for power outweighs the desire for societal wellbeing.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 23:15 - Visualizing The Major Product Exported By Each US State
Visualizing The Major Product Exported By Each US State
The U.S. is the second biggest exporter in the world, accounting for over 8% of global exports.
In this graphic by NeoMam Studios, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti analyzes the primary product exported by each state, as well as its main destination, utilizing data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.
Canada: The Primary Destination
Canada serves as the largest export market for most of the Midwest, while Mexico holds the top spot as the export destination for much of the Southwest and Southeast. Additionally, Canada stands out as the primary importer of products from 21 states, with China and Germany trailing behind as notable destinations.
State Destination Top Product Exported Value (USD) Alabama 🇩🇪 Germany Transportation equip. $3,649M Alaska 🇨🇦 Canada Minerals $576M Arizona 🇲🇽 Mexico Minerals $1,760M Arkansas 🇨🇦 Canada Processed Foods $246M California 🇨🇦 Canada Computer & Electronics $5,093M Colorado 🇰🇷 South Korea Processed Foods $545M Connecticut 🇩🇪 Germany Transportation equip. $1,581M Delaware 🇰🇷 South Korea Appliances $419M Florida 🇬🇧 UK Chemicals $2,447M Georgia 🇨🇦 Canada Machinery $1,629M Hawaii 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Transportation equip. $68M Idaho 🇹🇼 Taiwan Computer & Electronics $394M Illinois 🇨🇦 Canada Transportation equip. $4,517M Indiana 🇨🇦 Canada Transportation equip. $6,561M Iowa 🇨🇦 Canada Machinery $1,598M Kansas 🇲🇽 Mexico Agricultural $1,543M Kentucky 🇨🇦 Canada Transportation equip. $3,630M Louisiana 🇨🇳 China Agricultural $11,300M Maine 🇨🇦 Canada Oil & Gas $504M Maryland 🇫🇷 France Transportation equip. $949M Massachusetts 🇨🇳 China Machinery $1,298M Michigan 🇨🇳 China Transportation equip. $15,361M Minnesota 🇨🇦 Canada Petroleum & Coal $2,787M Mississippi 🇵🇦 Panama Petroleum & Coal $2,106M Missouri 🇨🇦 Canada Transportation equip. $2,390M Montana 🇨🇦 Canada Minerals $153M Nebraska 🇲🇽 Mexico Agricultural $933M Nevada 🇨🇭 Switzerland Metal $1,399M New Hampshire 🇩🇪 Germany Transportation equip. $695M New Jersey 🇨🇦 Canada Chemicals $2,734M New Mexico 🇲🇽 Mexico Computer & Electronics $2,014M New York 🇨🇭 Switzerland Metal $18,262M North Carolina 🇨🇳 China Chemicals $4,312M North Dakota 🇨🇦 Canada Petroleum & Coal $1,441M Ohio 🇨🇦 Canada Transportation equip. $5,990M Oklahoma 🇨🇦 Canada Machinery $418M Oregon 🇨🇳 China Computer & Electronics $6,261M Pennsylvania 🇨🇦 Canada Chemicals $2,280M Rhode Island 🇮🇹 Italy Waste & Scrap $321M South Carolina 🇩🇪 Germany Transportation equip. $3,774M South Dakota 🇨🇦 Canada Processed Foods $297M Tennessee 🇨🇦 Canada Transportation equip. $2,017M Texas 🇲🇽 Mexico Petroleum & Coal $33,627M Utah 🇬🇧 UK Metal $6,805M Vermont 🇹🇼 Taiwan Computer & Electronics $447M Virginia 🇮🇳 India Minerals $1,799M Washington 🇨🇳 China Agricultural $10,553M West Virginia 🇮🇳 India Minerals $657M Wisconsin 🇨🇦 Canada Machinery $1,802M Wyoming 🇮🇩 Indonesia Chemicals $200M When it comes to the types of exports, transportation equipment emerges as the primary source for the majority of states, with minerals and ores, chemicals, and computer and electronics following closely behind.
For instance, North Carolina ships $4.3 billion worth of chemicals to China, marking one of the longest-distance trade flows among states. Meanwhile, Florida boasts one of the most diverse export portfolios, engaging in trade with Europe, South America, and the Caribbean.
Louisiana heavily relies on the export of agricultural products to China, which contributes significantly to its total GDP. Similarly, Michigan’s transportation equipment exports to Canada constitute a noteworthy portion of the state’s GDP.
In Oregon, exports of semiconductors and other computer parts to China, driven by companies like Intel and Micron, play a crucial role in the state’s economy. Meanwhile, Utah predominantly exports primary metal manufacturing goods to the United Kingdom.
The biggest exporter in the country, Texas, sees a significant portion of its GDP attributed to exports to Mexico, further underlining the state’s economic ties with its southern neighbor.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 22:30 - New Yorkers Silently Worrying Over Ramifications Of Trump Ruling
New Yorkers Silently Worrying Over Ramifications Of Trump Ruling
Authored by Janice Hisle and Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images) Monday’s dramatic bond reduction for former President Donald Trump did nothing to dissipate the dark cloud that his civil-fraud case has cast over New York business deals.
Although investors won’t publicly admit it, the case is having a chilling effect, said Charles Trzcinka, professor of finance at Indiana University-Bloomington.
“If you talk to people in this market, they are very, very upset … and these are people who are neutral or even opposed to Trump,” Mr. Trzcinka told The Epoch Times. “They’re just angry about it.”
In his role at the university, Mr. Trzcinka said he places students in the corporate lending market in New York, making him aware of trends in that sphere.
An appeals court’s decision to slash the bond by about 60 percent, reducing it to $175 million, still left a massive penalty intact while President Trump continues a legal challenge of Justice Arthur Engoron’s ruling.
Judge Engoron ruled that President Trump and his associates fraudulently overvalued their assets. But Mr. Trzcinka said anyone who thinks President Trump’s activities in that case were irregular or fraudulent may lack an understanding of typical New York business transactions.
A source familiar with the case explained to The Epoch Times that, normally, business-related cases are handled in the New York courts’ commercial division.
There, cases are decided by judges who have specific, “sophisticated” knowledge of commercial law and business practices.
But the case didn’t go that route because New York Attorney General Letitia James found a novel way to use New York’s anti-fraud law.
Researchers examined other alleged fraud cases in New York over a 70-year period and found the Trump case stands alone. The Trump Organization was the only company that confronted the possibility of being forced out of business despite no victim suffering major financial harm.
Because of Ms. James’ unusual application of the law, the case was channeled to a court that would rarely, if ever, handle business-related matters.
Thus, the source said, “This case proceeded in just a highly irregular fashion from the start.”
The New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in New York on March 20, 2024. (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images) ‘A Degree of Horror’
Legal scholar Jonathan Turley agreed the case is atypical and its repercussions far-reaching.
“This has really done great damage to the New York legal system … Businesses are looking at this with a degree of horror—that a judge could come up with a figure so large you have to sell parts of your business just to get an appeal,” Mr. Turley told Fox News.
However, people who dislike President Trump are cheering on Ms. James. She ran for election on a promise to prosecute the former president if she won the post of attorney general.
Before the court-ordered bond reduction, the original $464 million bond amount included a $363 million judgment that Judge Engoron levied against President Trump and his associates, plus 9 percent interest.
Speaking to reporters after the March 25 appellate court’s decision, President Trump called Judge Engoron’s original decision a “disservice” to New York.
“Businesses are fleeing,” he said.
The case promises to continue discouraging investors from doing business in the Empire State, Mr. Trzcinka and two other knowledgeable sources told The Epoch Times.
That’s not only because of the crippling dollar amounts involved, the sources said, but also because President Trump and his associates were behaving within the bounds of normal business practice and victimized no one.
“All the parties under this civil case were satisfied,” Mr. Trzcinka said. Yet Ms. James “brought a case without a victim” and secured a judgment approaching $500 million.
“I have never heard of a victimless civil case that even won $500,” he said.
Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media during a pre-trial hearing in New York City on March 25, 2024. (Top R) New York Attorney General Letitia James (C) watches the start of former Presdient Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial in New York City on Oct. 2, 2023. Silently Worrying
Businesspeople are afraid to express concerns about the ramifications aloud. Doing so would paint targets on their backs—an underlying reason why President Trump was unable to persuade bonding companies or banks to cover the original $464 million bond, Mr. Trzcinka and the sources said.
“I don’t think a bonding company [or a bank] is willing to be associated with Donald Trump … because the attorney general could turn around and sue them, go after them,” Mr. Trzcinka said.
Judge Engoron ruled that President Trump and his associates committed fraud by overvaluing his properties.
Parties involved in real estate transactions tend to exaggerate values in one way or the other, and they “hit each other over the head” with dueling appraisals, Mr. Trzcinka said.
And, in a case such as this one, “everyone had the same information and just came to different conclusions” as to the valuations, he said. Then the parties negotiated figures and agreed to them.
Unaffordable for a Multi-Billionaire?
Even before interest was added, Judge Engoron slapped President Trump with “the largest penalty in history” for a case of its kind, said Mr. Trzcinka.
He had never heard of such a high penalty imposed for a “syndicated loan,” which involves civil contracts between a corporate borrower and corporate lenders.
About $355 million of the total order specifically applied to President Trump. In addition, the judge ordered $4 million to be recovered from each of his sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., and $1 million from former Trump Organization finance chief Allen Weisselberg.
Even the ultra-wealthy would rarely, if ever, have rapid access to hundreds of thousands of dollars in liquid assets, Mr. Trzcinka and other financial experts say.
Marshaling that much cash to post the bond in just 30 days proved to be a daunting task for President Trump; the appellate court’s ruling granted him 10 more days to post a reduced $175 million bond.
That decision moved the amount from “the realm of the impossible” into a different category; “it’s expensive but it’s feasible,” a source said.
A number of bonding companies said that the most they could shoulder would be $100 million, President Trump’s lawyers said in court filings, adding that many people worked countless hours to find possible solutions to the former president’s predicament.
Read the rest here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 21:45 - As Easter Looms, Church Attendance In The US Declines
As Easter Looms, Church Attendance In The US Declines
Christianity is on the decline in the United States.
As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, new data from Gallup shows that church attendance has dropped across all polled Christian groups. As the following chart shows, the biggest drop in attendance in the past 20 years has been amongst Catholics, which has fallen from 45 percent of U.S. adults self-identifying as Catholic saying that they go to religious services weekly or at least every week in 2000-2003, down to 33 percent saying the same in 2021-2023. This is a decrease of 12 percentage points. Catholics’ attendance is lower than their Protestant counterparts, which saw a drop of 4 percentage points in that time frame from 48 percent of worshippers to 44 percent.
You will find more infographics at Statista
According to Gallup’s data, this decline in church attendance among Christians speaks to a wider pattern across religion in the U.S. generally.
Where an average of 42 percent of U.S. adults attended religious services every week or nearly every week 20 years ago, now this figure is just 30 percent.
This is largely due to an increase in the share of U.S. adults who self-identify as having no religious affiliation.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 21:00 - Stress Creates A 4-Fold Increase In Spread Of Cancer: Study
Stress Creates A 4-Fold Increase In Spread Of Cancer: Study
Authored by Cara Michelle Miller via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A breakthrough discovery links stress hormones with a fourfold surge in the spread of cancer, shedding light on why patients under severe stress often have lower survival rates.
“There’s probably very few situations that are as stressful as being diagnosed with cancer and undergoing cancer treatment,” Mikala Egeblad, cancer researcher and senior author of the study, told The Epoch Times.
Understanding the stress–cancer link may open up new ways to protect patients from the adverse effects of stress as part of cancer care.
An Accidental Discovery Prompts More Research
The team of scientists from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) found that glucocorticoids—a type of stress hormone—play a role in creating a metastasis-friendly environment.
The Egeblad lab, which relocated to Johns Hopkins University, studies how the communication between tumors and the immune system affects tumor growth and metastasis in mice. Researchers discovered the connection accidentally, noticing faster tumor growth in mice they had unintentionally stressed by a change in housing.
The phenomenon prompted further research on chronic stress exposure and how it can encourage the spread of cancer, according to first author Xue-Yan He, who was a postdoctoral fellow at CSHL and is now an assistant professor at the Washington University School of Medicine.
Ms. He investigated this connection with a mice study that mimicked chronic stress, leading to startling observations: an increase in tumor lesions and up to a fourfold surge in the spread of cancer.
‘Spiderweb’ Structures Encourage Cancer Cells
According to the study published in Cancer Cell, the size of mammary tumors approximately doubled, and the rate of metastasis to the lungs increased between two- and fourfold compared with control mice not exposed to stress.
The researchers found that chronic stress impacts neutrophils, a type of white blood cell, causing an increase in neutrophil activation in the tissues where the cancer cells go.
When looking at lung tissue, the researchers found that chronic stress had altered the body’s internal environment in a way that could promote cancer growth by increasing neutrophils and then reducing T-cells, immune cells that kill cancer cells.
“We also found more extracellular matrix; this is a protein [network] that can support cancer cell growth,” Ms. He told The Epoch Times. Extracellular matrix helps cells attach to nearby cells and plays a vital role in cell growth and movement.
Ms. Egeblad explained that the neutrophils in the tissues formed spiderweb-like structures called neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Essentially, these traps are sticky webs of DNA meant to trap pathogens. However, in the case of cancer, NETs do not serve their usual protective role.
Instead, according to Ms. Egeblad and Ms. He, it appears that the NETs, induced by stress, encourage the growth of breast cancer cells that reach the lungs. “Our work shows how chronic stress activates neutrophils, helping cancer cells grow,” added Ms. He.
To confirm that glucocorticoids drive NET formation, leading to increased metastasis, the researchers performed three tests, each interfering with this pathway. First, they removed neutrophils from the mice using antibodies. Next, they injected a NET-dissolving enzyme. Lastly, they used mice whose neutrophils couldn’t respond to glucocorticoids.
According to Ms. He, each test achieved similar results: Depleting the neutrophils stopped stress-induced metastasis.
Chronic Stress Primes the Body for Developing Cancer
“Together, our data show that glucocorticoids released during chronic stress cause NET formation and establish a metastasis-promoting microenvironment,” the study authors wrote.
Unexpectedly, the study also showed that chronic stress can cause NETs to form and change lung tissues in mice without cancer, essentially preparing the body for cancer.
While this study highlights why managing severe stress is critical to cancer treatment, it also points to potential therapeutics that could target the formation of NETs or block the receptors for glucocorticoids.
“The next major directions that I see is understanding how much of this applies to humans and what can we do to to inhibit the stress in first, our animal models, and then eventually in patients,” said Ms. Egeblad.
She also hopes that understanding the stress response in patients will pave the way for better treatment and increased survival rates.
Unraveling the Deadly Stress-Cancer Alliance
Stress is unavoidable for someone navigating a cancer diagnosis. Many patients cite treatment decisions—and the surrounding uncertainty, anxiety, and even regret—as a source of distress, according to a 2023 study published in Scientific Reports.
In a review paper from 2023 published in the Annual Review of Psychology, researchers shared decades of data showing how stress reduction techniques improve outcomes for cancer patients. Techniques for stress management included:
- Breathwork: This involves deep, slow breathing while concentrating on filling the lungs and relaxing muscles.
- Progressive muscle relaxation: This technique involves tightening and then relaxing muscles. Most people start at either the toes or the head and progressively relax all the muscles across the body.
- Meditation: With this technique, you can learn to relax your mind and concentrate on an inner sense of calm.
- Yoga: Yoga focuses the mind on breathing and posture to promote relaxation and reduce fatigue.
Many of the findings in the review paper involved cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) with a counselor, which focuses on actively changing thoughts and behavior. Patients were also taught to distinguish between stressors that are within their control and those that are not.
For stressors that feel like they are out of someone’s control, such as the uncertainties that come with facing a cancer care plan, relaxation techniques with social support seem to help patients manage anxiety.
Engaging with support groups and connecting with peers facing similar struggles provides a support network. Sharing experiences creates a sense of belonging, diminishing the isolation that can accompany cancer.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 20:15 - Buffett Is Still The Richest Person In Finance
Buffett Is Still The Richest Person In Finance
The combined net worth of the 10 richest people in finance reached $446.9 billion in 2024.
Here, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte ranks them based on Forbes data as of Feb. 1, 2024.
The Oracle of Omaha
93-year-old Warren Buffett heads the list. The chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway has a net worth of $128.7 billion.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is 62% invested in only three stocks: Apple (42.9%), Bank of America (10.2%) and American Express (9.1%).
Based in Omaha, Nebraska, where he has spent much of his life and where Berkshire Hathaway is headquartered, Buffett is also the 6th richest person in the world.
In second place is Michael Bloomberg, with $96.3 billion. Besides founding the financial data and media company Bloomberg LP in 1981, Bloomberg served as mayor of New York City for 12 years, from 2002 to 2013. A prominent philanthropist, he is committed to donating his stake in Bloomberg LP to Bloomberg Philanthropies when he dies.
In third place, Ken Griffin possesses almost a third of Bloomberg’s net worth. He founded and runs Citadel, a Miami-based hedge fund firm that manages $60 billion in assets. Stephen Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO of Blackstone Group, comes in fourth with $36.8 billion.
The only non-American is Robert Budi Hartono, one of the wealthiest people in Indonesia. His wealth comes from Djarum, one of the world’s largest producers of clove cigarettes, and Bank Central Asia, one of the country’s largest banks.
The lone female on the list is Abigail Johnson. She is the president and CEO of Fidelity Investments. Johnson took over the CEO position from her father in 2014.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 19:30 - Ahead Of 2024 Election, Abortion Battles Heat Up Across Nation
Ahead Of 2024 Election, Abortion Battles Heat Up Across Nation
Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock) Parents could be charged with child abuse if they prevent their minor daughter from getting an abortion, according to an Illinois law proposed by Democrat state Rep. Anne Stava-Murray.
In South Carolina, a new bill would require taxpayers to pay all childhood expenses—up to age 18—for babies born to mothers who were unable to get an abortion.
And the New Hampshire Legislature is wrestling with a proposal to ban abortion at 15 days of gestation, effectively banning abortion in the state, where it is currently allowed up to 24 weeks.
These recently introduced measures are just a few among a flood of proposals and changes triggered by the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade, which sent abortion regulation back to the states.
In November, voters in at least seven states will see abortion proposals on their ballots. Even in states where access to abortion isn’t on the ballot, voters may still cast votes for candidates who align with their beliefs on the issue.
Immediately after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, trigger laws in 13 states went into effect, completely banning or limiting abortions to very early pregnancy, with few exceptions. Last year, states without trigger laws, including Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina, enacted similar pro-life laws.
Many states also enacted or proposed “safety net” legislation to help new and expectant mothers meet the demands of motherhood.
Ohio state Sen. Sandra O’Brien, a Republican, introduced SB 159, a tax credit for donations to pregnancy centers.
In Indiana, SB 98 identifies an unborn child as a dependent for tax purposes. The bill was sponsored by Republican state Sen. Andy Zay. Another Indiana safety-net bill would increase the Medicaid reimbursement rates for prenatal and postnatal care services.
Then there’s Kentucky’s bipartisan “Momnibus” legislation, an omnibus bill offering tax credits for adoption, and tax credits and grants for pregnancy help centers. It includes provisions for mental health service, parenting classes, and online and home visits for new mothers without transportation.
The pro-abortion movement is working hard to counter these actions and is striving for legislation and ballot measures that allow for abortion up to birth in many cases.
“You’re seeing a direct reaction from the other side that is panicking, based on the Dobbs decision,” Kelsey Pritchard, director of state public affairs at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, told The Epoch Times.
“They are running as fast as they can to unlimited abortion funded by the taxpayer. And they’ve gotten so extreme on the issue.”
Pro-abortion activists mark the first anniversary of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, in front of the Supreme Court on June 23, 2023. (Nathan Howard/AP Photo, File) Womb for Rent
Seemingly every state has some movement in its legislature regarding abortion policy.
In South Carolina, where abortion is banned at six weeks of pregnancy, state Sen. Mia McLeod, who left the Democratic Party and became an independent, has proposed the “South Carolina Pro Birth Accountability Act” which will require taxpayers to pay women who would have aborted their baby “reasonable living, legal, medical, psychological, and psychiatric expenses.”
The bill compares a woman’s womb to rental property and reasons that in the surrogacy market, “a woman’s uterus is not unlike rental property, as a commissioning couple agrees to pay a gestational surrogate certain compensation for carrying a fetus to term and giving birth to a child.” It continues to say that since South Carolina may not constitutionally use a citizen’s rental property without just compensation, “it may not constitutionally require a woman to incubate a child without appropriate compensation.”
The bill stipulates that after a baby’s heartbeat is detected, the mother would be automatically enrolled in public assistance programs, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and that those benefits could not be withdrawn until the child is 18.
The bill would pay a nurse to provide home visits from early pregnancy through the child’s second birthday; costs associated with health, dental, and vision insurance for the child until the age of 18; and a fully funded South Carolina 529 College Savings Plan for the benefit of the child. If the woman has a miscarriage, she may sue the state for compensation and damages.
In the case of an unmarried woman, the bill stipulates that if the biological father accrues more than $5,000 in child-support arrearage, he would be charged with a misdemeanor and, if convicted, could serve up to three years in prison.
(Left) Democratic state Sen. Mia McLeod speaks during debate on an abortion measure at the Statehouse in Columbia, S.C., on May 23, 2023. (Right) Demonstrators watch a live video feed of the state Senate proceedings. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images) “The court may suspend any portion of the prison sentence if the man consents to a voluntary vasectomy and to payment of restitution to the woman in the amount of the child-support arrearages owed,” the bill reads.
“I just want to make sure that those of us who call ourselves pro-life, that we are doing something to help the living, and my bill does that,” Ms. McLeod said in a February video posted on social media.
“It also gives my colleagues who refer to themselves as pro-life an opportunity to prove it by investing in South Carolina’s women and girls, and making sure that they have the resources and support that they need.”
Pro-life group South Carolina Citizens for Life opposes the legislation.
“Comparing a woman’s uterus to rental property and incentivizing men to have a vasectomy is really disturbing and vile language, and it’s intended to devalue members of our human family—born and waiting to be born,” Holly Gatling, the group’s executive director, told The Epoch Times.
“The intent of this bill is to obfuscate the fact that we have a vast network of pregnancy-care centers in South Carolina. … where women are given free health care … and diapers, formulas, job training, parenting classes, and assistance with getting back into a regular workforce and lifestyle by the time this baby is 2 years old,” she said. “So the bill is based on a false premise that we don’t do anything for mothers and babies after the child is born.”
In Pennsylvania, Democrat lawmakers say they want to “facilitate safe abortion access,” by reversing a 2011 state law requiring abortion businesses to meet all the same regulations as ambulatory surgical facilities, including submitting to unannounced inspections. It means abortion clinics, which sometimes fail health inspections, would no longer have to be inspected.
“Here in Pennsylvania, the pro-abortion extremism starts at the top with Gov. Josh Shapiro unilaterally eliminating the state contract for alternatives to abortion funding—a program that had bipartisan support and operated for 30 years under Republican and Democrat governors alike,” Michael Geer, president of Pennsylvania Family Institute, told The Epoch Times in an email.
Mr. Shapiro often expresses support for abortions in social media posts.
“Mifepristone will be available on the shelves in Pennsylvania,” he posted on March 1. “I’ll continue working to protect women’s access to abortion across this Commonwealth.”
Holding a map showing the status of state abortion policies, Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks at an event at the White House complex in Washington on Aug. 3, 2022. (Win McNamee/Getty Images) Mifepristone is a progesterone-blocking drug that causes a woman’s body to abort her baby outside a doctor’s office.
“As long as I’m Governor, abortion will be safe, legal, and accessible here in Pennsylvania,” Mr. Shapiro posted on March 4.
The Shapiro administration made available online a form solely for complaints against pregnancy resource centers.
“It’s an agenda that prioritizes the profits of the abortion industry over the well-being of women and children in Pennsylvania,” Mr. Geer said.
Other Bills
In West Virginia, the state Senate has approved a measure requiring students in eighth and 10th grades to watch “Baby Olivia,” a video on fetal development. The video already is shown in North Dakota classrooms, and it could be legislatively required in Iowa, Kentucky, and Missouri. Pro-abortion activists oppose the short film, calling it medically inaccurate.
House Bill 2749 in Kansas would require abortionists to ask women why they are terminating their pregnancies and to rank their top reasons for seeking an abortion, including financial or health concerns, or that the pregnancy is a result of rape or incest.
In Oklahoma, where abortion is almost completely banned, House Bill 3013 would make trafficking abortion pills a felony, punishable by a $100,000 fine, 10 years in prison, or both.
A judge in Montana recently declared unconstitutional three laws passed by the state Legislature. The laws banned abortion after 20 weeks, required that pregnant women be given the opportunity to see an ultrasound of their baby before having an abortion, and required that abortion pills be administered in person rather than through telehealth. The laws were challenged by Planned Parenthood of Montana.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 18:45 - ESG Frustration And Backlash In The Banking Sector Continues
ESG Frustration And Backlash In The Banking Sector Continues
“Facts that don’t align with ill-informed prejudice are often infuriating. That doesn’t make them wrong. Someone needs to tell the truth about what it’s going to take to get to a net-zero future,” Emily Mir, a spokeswoman for Exxon, said earlier this month.
And that’s exactly what Judson Berkey at UBS has done, the focus of a new Bloomberg report. Berkey let loose on a recent conference call with regulators about how unrealistic climate goals were for banks trying to integrate them into their respective economies.
The report covering Berkey’s outburst simply concluded that the “world’s biggest banks can’t live up to the green regulatory ideal unless they start dumping huge numbers of clients worldwide at a reckless pace and also roil economies in large swathes of the globe that primarily rely on dirty fuels.”
Berkey was on a “check-in” call where regulators query market participants about regulations, the report says, when he expressed his frustration, interjecting: “Banks are living and lending on planet earth, not planet NGFS [Network for Greening the Financial System]”.
The outburst is a microcosm of “cracks” emerging in the banking sector after being draped with regulations about sustainability, the report says. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio famously said last year about ESG: “You have to make it profitable.”
Its indicative of new-world climate regulation going head to head with old world capitalism, the report says.
Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission in Britain said: Climate change is “an economic externality, and you can’t expect a free market to deal with it voluntarily.”
Banks reevaluating their net zero commitments are facing challenges as they confront the practical implications of these pledges, which include limitations on operating in coal-reliant regions like South Africa, Poland, and Indonesia. These commitments also complicate relationships with clients across various sectors, from commodities firms to companies with less obvious carbon impacts.
Jonathan Hackett, head of sustainable finance at Bank of Montreal, added: “Our net zero commitments are about being our clients’ lead partner and are consciously taken around the idea that we need to be there with our clients and our clients need to succeed, not that we need to hyper select clients in order to get to net zero somehow faster or better.”
A recent sustainability report from UBS highlighted a “notable shift in emphasis” in climate change discussions, moving from net zero pledges to recognizing the need for a transition phase. The Swiss bank noted that high inflation and input costs will be crucial factors for clients as they develop decarbonization strategies.
James Vaccaro, Chief Catalyst at Climate Safe Lending Network, added: “For banks with substantial capital markets businesses, like those competing with the JPMorgans of the world, it’s fee income that’s on the line here. Ditching clients off track from 1.5C means losing major lines of revenue.”
In sum, the financial industry’s initial rush to commit to net zero carbon footprints at the 2021 COP26 summit in Glasgow has hit a reality check. Banks that pledged to reduce financed emissions and invest billions in green and sustainable deals are reevaluating these commitments after facing the complex realities of implementing such drastic changes.
It should be no surprise to our readers: we have been pointed out the collapse of ESG for more than a year now. Earlier in March we wrote how Exxon’s CEO had all but declared victory over the “woke” ESG lobby.
In February, we noted that CEOs were ditching ESG lingo on conference calls. For some context, peak ESG and related synonyms, such as “climate change” and “clean energy” and green energy” and net zero,” among other terms, peaked at 28,000 mentions in the first quarter of 2022. Ever since, the number of mentions has rapidly plunged. Halfway through the first quarter earnings season, mentions are around 4,800.
Andy Wiechmann, the Chief Financial Officer of MSCI, mentioned during his earnings call that “Clients are taking a more measured approach to how they integrate ESG.”
On a Jan. 12 earnings call, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink explained how his firm plans to purchase private equity firm Global Infrastructure Partners without mentioning ESG. This makes sense since BlackRock dropped the ESG term after blowback last summer.
Recall, we also wrote last year about the dying off of ESG and “green” investment products. At the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs shuttered its ActiveBeta Paris-Aligned Climate U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out in late 2023 that “there was just way too much supply for the demand” with the ETF and that “it’s going to get worse too”. Balchunas says the ETF only took in $7 million over the course of 2 years.
We also wrote about Jeff Ubben late last year, who shuttered his sustainability fund – calling traditional climate summitry an “echo chamber” of diplomats. Less than a week before that we noted that $30 billion had been shaved off the value of clean energy stocks over the preceding 6 months.
Finally, we pointed out last year how the ESG grift was reaching endgame after Markus Müller, chief investment officer ESG at Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank stated that sustainability funds should include traditional energy stocks, arguing that not doing so deprives investors of a prime opportunity to invest in the transition to renewable energy.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 18:00 - Hazardous Material Containers 'Breached' During Baltimore Bridge Collapse: NTSB
Hazardous Material Containers ‘Breached’ During Baltimore Bridge Collapse: NTSB
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The scene after the cargo ship Dali struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge a day earlier causing it to collapse, in Baltimore, Md., on March 27, 2024. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) The cargo ship that crashed into Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge on March 26 was carrying more than 50 hazardous material containers, some of which were breached during the collapse, according to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).
NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy said during a press conference on March 27 that the agency, which is currently probing the crash, had obtained a cargo manifest of the 984-foot-long Singapore-flagged cargo vessel named Dali.
The vessel—which reportedly lost power while transiting out of Baltimore Harbor and struck the bridge—had 56 containers of hazardous materials on board at the time of the incident, Ms. Homendy said.
The NTSB chair said a senior hazmat investigator had identified the containers.
“That’s 764 tons of hazardous materials—mostly corrosives, flammable, and some miscellaneous hazardous materials—class nine hazardous materials which would include lithium-ion batteries,” Ms. Homendy said.
“Some of the hazmat containers were breached,” she added.
Asked how many of the containers were in the water, the NTSB chair could not provide an exact number.
“I did see some containers in the water and some breached significantly on the vessel itself,” she said. “I don’t have an exact number but it’s something that we can provide in an update and certainly in our preliminary report which should be out in two to four weeks.”
‘Sheen’ Observed On Water Around Collapse
Officials have also observed a sheen—sometimes caused by gasoline or oil—on the waterway surrounding the collapsed bridge that spans the Patapsco River. According to Ms. Homendy, federal, state, and local authorities are aware of this and are currently working to address those issues.
“The NTSB as part of our safety investigation documents that type of release, it documents the damage and and documents the type of materials involved as part of our investigation,” Ms. Homendy said.
Asked by one reporter to characterize the level of concern regarding the hazardous material leak and the sheen on the water, Ms. Homendy declined to respond and directed him to state and local authorities.
The NTSB will also not provide any of its findings while the investigation remains ongoing, Ms. Homendy noted.
Dali struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge at about 1:27 a.m. on March 26 while leaving the harbor, according to officials.
The incident resulted in the bridge collapsing moments later while eight construction workers—who officials say were from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras—were filling in potholes.
Police Recover Bodies
Two of the workers were rescued on March 26 soon after the collapse, officials said. One of them was uninjured and the other was hospitalized in a “very serious condition” but later released.
On March 27, police announced that two bodies had also been recovered during search-and-recovery efforts.
The families of Alejandro Hernandez Fuentes, 35, and Dorlian Castillo Cabrera, 26, have been notified, Col. Roland L. Butler Jr., superintendent of the Maryland State Police, said.
Police discovered their bodies inside a pickup truck that was submerged approximately 25 feet below water in the Patapsco River, around the middle section of the bridge, according to the superintendent.
The two men were with the company, Brawner Companies, doing maintenance on the bridge deck, he said.
The U.S. Coast Guard is continuing recovery efforts in the search for the remaining four missing individuals.
According to Ms. Homendy, the 95,000 gross-ton container ship also sustained damage during the incident, although none of the 21 crew members and two pilots who were onboard at the time sustained significant injuries.
Officials have praised those on board for saving countless lives by raising a mayday alarm just moments before the incident, allowing authorities to limit traffic on the bridge before it collapsed.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 17:15 - The Tower Of Sauron Can't Pay Its Debt: Brooklyn's Tallest Building Is In Foreclosure
The Tower Of Sauron Can’t Pay Its Debt: Brooklyn’s Tallest Building Is In Foreclosure
While everyone says that the looming commercial real estate crash is nothing to worry about since, well, everyone’s been worrying about it for so long and nothing bad has happened yet (except for the whole regional bank crisis last March when virtually anyone who is not JPM almost imploded), every day we get a new and more shocking foreclosure or default.
Today, it is the infamous Brooklyn Tower, the 1066-foot building, sometimes called the Eye of Sauron, which is the tallest in all of Brooklyn. According to marketing materials from JLL, Silverstein Capital Partners has scheduled a foreclosure auction for 9 DeKalb Ave., JDS Development’s Brooklyn Tower.
JDS took out a $240M mezzanine loan from Larry Silverstein’s firm in 2019 as part of a $664M debt package to build the 93-story, 1,066-foot tower in Downtown Brooklyn. Yet despite what the media said was a flood of interest in the property, less than five years later, JDS has defaulted on the loan, according to the foreclosure notice, first reported by ten31 on X, triggering the foreclosure auction, scheduled for June 10.
It’s all happening at the Tower of Sauron pic.twitter.com/OZIjlQJ3mP
— Hiten Samtani (@hitsamty) March 27, 2024
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To lock in the entire capital structure, Silverstein also bought the property’s senior debt, a $424M mortgage originally provided by Otéra Capital, earlier this year. A spokesperson for Silverstein told Bisnow in an email that the junior, senior and mezzanine loans for 9 DeKalb are all in default and that Silverstein is enforcing its rights as a lender, i.e., the Eye of Sauron is about to have a new master.
The mezz loan was the first debt handed out by Silverstein Capital Partners, which was launched in 2018. It has raised over $4B since then and provided debt to projects like Hudson Cos.’ One Clinton condo and retail development in Brooklyn Heights.
JDS, led by Michael Stern, tried to sell the 398-unit rental portion of 9 DeKalb, which also features 143 condos, a little over a year ago, The Real Deal reported. At the time, JDS was reportedly seeking between $600M and $700M for the rental units. Judging by today’s news, they weren’t successful.
Construction on the tower, which sits atop the historic Dime Savings Bank and Junior’s restaurant, began in 2015. The property, which is Brooklyn’s first supertall at just over 1,000 feet, also contains a 130K SF retail portion largely occupied by Life Time Fitness. Unit 72A this week set the record for Brooklyn’s priciest studio apartment when it sold for $905K, 6sqft reported.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 16:40 - $1 Billion In Tax Refunds Remain Unclaimed As May 17 Filing Deadline Approaches
$1 Billion In Tax Refunds Remain Unclaimed As May 17 Filing Deadline Approaches
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The IRS building in Washington on Oct. 16, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times) The IRS is reminding taxpayers who have not filed their 2020 returns to do so quickly or risk losing out on unclaimed refunds.
Nearly 940,000 Americans have unclaimed refunds from the 2020 tax year worth an estimated $1 billion, the IRS said on March 25. The individuals face a May 17 deadline to submit their returns.
The median refund is $932. American citizens typically have up to three years to file and claim refunds, after which the money goes to the U.S. Treasury.
Since taxpayers may find it difficult to gather information necessary to file returns for 2020, the IRS outlined three ways to access such information:
- Taxpayers who are missing their W-2, 1098, 1099, or 5498 forms can request copies from their employer, bank, or other payers.
- Those who are unable to get these forms from employers, banks, or other payers can order a free wage and income transcript at IRS.gov using the agency’s online tool. The agency noted that this will be the quickest and easiest option for many individuals.
- A third way is for the individual to file a 4506-T form with the IRS, requesting a “wage and income transcript.” Taxpayers can then use information to file their returns. The agency warned that written requests for such transcripts can take several weeks. As such, taxpayers are encouraged to try out other options first.
Usually, the deadline to claim old refunds is around the regular tax deadline, which is April 15 this year. The three-year window for the 2020 returns had been extended to May 17 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We want taxpayers to claim these refunds, but time is running out for people who may have overlooked or forgotten about these refunds. There’s a May 17 deadline to file these returns so taxpayers should start soon to make sure they don’t miss out,” said IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel.
Since taxpayers faced “extremely unusual situations” during the pandemic, some of them may have forgotten about a potential refund on their 2020 returns, he stated.
“People may have just overlooked these, including students, part-time workers, and others. Some people may not realize they may be owed a refund. We encourage people to review their files and start gathering records now.”
In addition to missing out on refunds, failure to file the 2020 return could also result in some taxpayers losing out on the earned income tax credit, which was worth as much as $6,600 in 2020.
“The IRS reminds taxpayers seeking a 2020 tax refund that their funds may be held if they have not filed tax returns for 2021 and 2022,” the agency said.
“In addition, any refund amount for 2020 will be applied to amounts still owed to the IRS or a state tax agency and may be used to offset unpaid child support or other past due federal debts, such as student loans.”
The state with the highest number of individuals estimated to have 2020 refunds due was Texas, with 93,400 taxpayers. This was followed by California with 88,200; Florida with 53,200; and New York with 51,400.
Processing Refunds
The IRS usually takes up to 21 days to process refunds for returns filed electronically. It can take four weeks or more if traditional mail was used. The processing time can be extended in case the returns require extra review or corrections. The fastest way to get refunds is through direct deposit.
In certain cases, taxpayers may not receive the refund amount they were expecting. This could be due to the agency identifying errors on tax returns, or if the refund was used to pay off certain state or federal debts owed, or if the refund from a joint return was used to pay off a spouse’s debts.
In case of errors corrected by the IRS, the agency will send a notice to the taxpayer clarifying the changes.
Tax refunds are critical for many American households as they represent the largest annual cash injection into their budgets. Many families use the refunds to boost their savings or cut down debts.
According to a January survey conducted by Credit Karma, 37 percent of taxpayers who expect to receive a refund plan on using some or all of the money to pay for necessities. Over half of the respondents said they were looking to file their taxes early to get faster refunds.
Thirty-one percent of taxpayers surveyed said they would need their refund to make ends meet.
“That number jumps to 40 percent for millennials and 38 percent for Gen Z taxpayers,” the survey report stated.
In addition to encouraging 2020 tax year nonfilers to file their returns, the IRS has launched an effort to identify high-income taxpayers who have not filed their income taxes since 2017. Over 125,000 such instances have been identified, with taxes being owed in many of these cases.
The initiative was launched late last month, with the agency sending compliance letters to these 125,000 taxpayers.
“The mailings include more than 25,000 to those with more than $1 million in income, and over 100,000 to people with incomes between $400,000 and $1 million between tax years 2017 and 2021,” the agency stated.
Mr. Werfel said that if someone hasn’t filed a tax return in recent years, “this is the time to review their situation and make it right. … For those who owe, the risk will just grow over time as will the potential for penalties and interest. These non-filers should review information on IRS.gov that can help and consider talking to a trusted tax professional as soon as possible.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 16:05 - France Takes Down Fake Ukraine War Recruitment Website Targeting Immigrants
France Takes Down Fake Ukraine War Recruitment Website Targeting Immigrants
In a bizarre and unprecedented situation, France has flagged what officials are calling a fake recruitment website which seeks volunteers to fight on behalf of Ukraine in the with Russia. It reportedly was made to look official, to the point of misleadingly presenting itself as a French government-promoted campaign.
France’s defense ministry has shut down the website, saying it was created by malicious actors as part of a “disinformation campaign”. Ukraine’s armed forces have of late been desperate for new recruits while facing devastating losses and thus face a severe manpower shortage.
“A URL for a page called ‘Join Ukraine,’ which used [French] government website templates, is currently being circulated online; this website is fake,” a message on the site reads, according to AFP.
The fake Ukraine volunteer website “invited” 200,000 French citizens to enlist in Ukraine’s national forces, and even emphasized that immigrants to France could serve. Volunteers were told to contact “unit commander Pavel” in order to gain instructions on the process of enlistment.
French authorities did not identify a culprit behind the deceptive campaign; however, a source told AFP that evidence possibly points to the Russian mercenary group Wagner being behind it.
Another government official told AFP that it bore “the hallmarks of a Russian or pro-Russian effort as part of a disinformation campaign claiming that the French army is preparing to send troops to Ukraine.”
Starting last month French President Emmanuel Macron stunned even Western allies by pushing for European countries to consider sending troops to fight in Ukraine.
He had told a Paris-hosted security conference in late February that while there was yet “no consensus” on sending ground troops to Ukraine in an “official manner,” it remains that “nothing was excluded.” He later defended the remarks and said the West cannot allow Russia to win in Ukraine no matter what.
This new fake recruitment website episode could be part of an attempt to troll or mock Macron and call attention to his very dangerous proposal, which would be a sure path to WW3 with Russia. Germany among other powerful allies has opposed Macron’s words.
🇫🇷 🇺🇦 🪖 ❌ #France‘s #defence ministry warned against a fake government website propagating #misinformation, inviting people to defend the country’s interests in #Ukraine.
FRANCE 24’s @tomcanetti has the story ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/lljnMBLJR1
— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) March 29, 2024
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Early in the war more than two years ago some Western leaders, particularly then UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, were vocally encouraging foreign volunteers to go to Ukraine. But as more and more Westerners died in battle, officials have backed off such public statements.
President Zelensky in February signed a decree opening up Ukraine’s military forces to “foreigners and stateless persons” for the first time ever. The country already had a “foreign legion” but volunteers can now serve in Ukraine’s National Guard, per the recent order, and may sign a contract at the private, sergeant, or officer levels depending on their qualifications.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 15:30 - Wealth Gap And The Road To Serfdom
Wealth Gap And The Road To Serfdom
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
One of the most interesting conundrums is the surging wealth gap in America. Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement. Such a reality starkly differs from the belief that rising asset prices benefit the masses.
For example, in a recent St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank analysis, total household wealth was $139.1 trillion, covering 131 million families. Of that total wealth, 74% was owned by just 13.2 million families, or roughly 10% of the population.
Notably, this measure of wealth includes the equity of the family’s home. While home equity is essential, it is not readily spendable without taking on debt to extract the value. Therefore, Americans’ “liquid wealth” is far more unequally distributed. However, such is hard to fathom given the endless parade of media and social media influencers extolling the virtues of “building wealth through investing.”
Interestingly, that survey came after the Government injected nearly $5 trillion into the economy, a massive surge in deficit spending, and the Fed’s $120 billion monthly injections doubled asset prices from the March 2020 lows. Unsurprisingly, in February, Fidelity published its latest analysis showing the number of retirement accounts with balances of more than $1 million surged toward a record. To wit:
“The number of seven-figure 401(k) accounts at Fidelity Investments jumped 20% in 2023’s final quarter to 422,000, marking a sharp recovery from the previous quarter’s 7.7% drop.
Gains in the stock market helped swell retirement balances last year as the S&P 500 advanced 24% following 2022’s 19% decline. The impressive run was powered in large part by the so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks that now make up roughly 30% of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 Index. The only time when the ranks of 401(k) millionaires at Fidelity was higher was in 2021’s fourth quarter, when there were 442,000 such accounts. Elsewhere, the number of seven-figure IRAs is at a record 391,600 accounts.” – Bloomberg
However, that data obfuscates the stark wealth gap below the surface. While the “number of retirement millionaires” made headlines, an essential piece of the analysis was overlooked. Those 422,000 accounts comprised only a tiny fraction of Fidelity’s 27.2 million retirement accounts. How small of a fraction? About 1.6%. That number aligns with America’s Top 1% of equity ownership.
But indeed, after two booming bull markets since 1980, most Americans would be well saved for retirement. Unfortunately, that is not the case.
So, what went wrong?
The 50% Problem
The advice to build wealth is quite simplistic. Investment money into the financial market consistently over long periods. That’s it.
Again, considering that most Americans alive today participated in either one or both of the most significant secular bull markets in history, the lack of wealth is quite appalling. If individuals had invested $1000 in 1980 into the S&P 500 index and added just $100 per month, they would have roughly $1.4 million in retirement savings today.
However, if it is so simple, why do most Americans have little or no savings?
“One in 4 Americans have no retirement savings and those who are saving aren’t saving enough. Those that are [saving], on average, what they have saved will afford them like $1,000 a month of actual cash while they’re in retirement.” – Price-Waterhouse Retirement In America.
The report found that the median retirement account balance for 55-to-64-year-olds is $120,000. Dividing over 15 years would generate a modest monthly distribution of less than $1,000. The bigger problem is the large percentage of individuals with no retirement savings.
There are two primary reasons individuals do not save and invest for retirement. While psychological reasons account for 50% of the problem, such as buying high and selling low, the other 50% comes down to a lack of capital to invest.
We have previously written about the various psychological pitfalls investors make in destroying their investment capital. However, for many, it is a problem of being unable or unwilling to save money.
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Lack of knowledge about budgeting and saving. (15%)
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The cost of living exceeds income. (70%)
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Bad previous investing experience (bear market). (15%)
If you ask anyone who doesn’t save money, you will likely get one of those three answers. It is hard to “save and invest” when there simply isn’t enough income.
However, this is where the disconnect between the economic data and the “average American” is exposed.
Not Enough Income
Most mainstream analysis utilizes “averages” to discuss the economy’s health. For example, disposable incomes (DPI), personal savings rates, and debt-to-income ratios suggest that the average American family is flush with cash with little debt. However, most of these calculations, like DPI (income minus taxes), are generalizations due to the variability of household income and individual tax rates.
More importantly, the measure becomes skewed by the top 20% of income earners, notably the top 5%. The chart below shows those in the top 20% saw substantially larger median wage growth versus the bottom 80%. (Note: all data used below is from the Census Bureau and the IRS.). The cost of raising a family of four continues to increase with inflation, so the bottom 80% are forced to live paycheck-to-paycheck, primarily leaving no money for retirement savings.
Furthermore, disposable and discretionary incomes are two very different animals.
Discretionary income is the remainder of disposable income after paying for all mandatory spending like rent, food, utilities, health care premiums, insurance, etc. For the bottom 80% of income earners, the cost of living outstrips most of those individuals’ incomes. Debt must make up the difference.
In other words, given the bulk of the wage gains are in the upper 20%, any data that reports an “average” of the information skews the results higher. This is why there is a vast difference between the debt service levels (per household) between the bottom 80% and the top 20%.
Yes, saving money and investing it into the financial markets is tough when you must go further into debt every month to make ends meet.
The Wealth Gap And The Road To Serfdom
The rise and fall of stock prices has little to do with the average American’s participation in the domestic economy. Interest rates and inflation are entirely different matters. Since interest rates affect “payments,” and inflation increases the “costs of living,” changes negatively impact consumption, housing, and investment.
Therefore, while the stock market surges to all-time highs, the wealth gap leaves increasing numbers of Americans behind. For the average American, it isn’t a choice of not wanting to participate; they simply can’t.
The reality is that middle-class America continues to shrink as the wealth gap increases. The rich can invest, save, and use little debt to sustain living standards. People experiencing poverty rely on debt, making long-term prosperity an impossible goal.
Furthermore, as the peasants demand “more free stuff” from the Government, such requires more debt and higher taxes. Those demands divert more capital away from productive investment, leading to slower economic growth. As growth slows, businesses shift to the lowest labor costs, or automation, to lower income growth for domestic workers. Such leads to more demands from “free stuff” from the Government, and the cycle intensifies, pushing more of the middle class downward.
The share of annual incomes between the bottom 80% and the top 5% is evidence of that wealth transfer from the middle class.
The “road to serfdom” is paved with good intentions. After decades of piling on increasing debt levels to generate economic growth, the damage to economic growth is becoming more visible. Economic growth trends are already falling short of previous long-term growth trends.
Of course, this analysis also underscores why bitter economic sentiment persists even as the bull market registers all-time highs. It is hard to be excited about a booming stock market when you don’t participate much, if at all.
For 80% of Americans, the end game of too much debt, an aging demographic, and the push for “socialistic policies” is the continued extraction of wealth from the “middle class” to the “rich.”
Of course, we don’t have to look much further than Japan to see how this eventually works out. They don’t have a middle class, either.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 14:55 -
- United Airlines Boeing 777 Diverted To Denver After 'Engine Issues'
United Airlines Boeing 777 Diverted To Denver After ‘Engine Issues’
The Federal Aviation Administration should expedite its plan to curb United Airlines’ growth, including preventing the carrier from adding new routes, following a series of safety incidents in recent weeks and another incident on Thursday evening.
Last night, United Flight 990, a Boeing 777-200 traveling from San Francisco to Paris, was diverted to Denver International Airport when the pilots reported engine issues.
Flight tracking website Flightradar24 shows Flight 990 was heading north towards the Canadian border before it turned south towards Denver. United wrote in a statment that the plane landed safely with 273 passengers and 12 crew on board.
This comes after a series of recent flight mishaps involving United jets, including a tire falling off a Boeing 777 taking off at San Francisco airport, landing gear issues with a Boeing 737 at Houston, and a panel flying off an aging United Boeing 737.
A Bloomberg report said FAA authorities are considering “drastic measures” to curb the airline’s growth following a series of safety incidents.
Last week, United CEO Scott Kirby promised customers that the carrier would review the incidents and its employee training. Perhaps what Kirby should be promising customers is to stop pushing “insane,” disastrous, and potentially deadly DEI mandates.
The entire aviation industry is in disarray, from United to Boeing to the FAA. Why is this Pete Buttigieg?
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 14:20 - The Meltdown Of Commercial Real Estate
The Meltdown Of Commercial Real Estate
Authored by Peter St. Onge via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
In case you’ve still got money in a bank, Bloomberg is warning that defaults in commercial real estate loans could “topple” hundreds of U.S. banks.
Leaving taxpayers on the hook for trillions in losses.
The note, by senior editor James Crombie, walks us through the festering hellscape that is commercial real estate.
To set the mood, a new study predicts that nearly half of downtown Pittsburgh office space could be vacant in four years. Major cities such as San Francisco are already sporting zombie-apocalypse downtowns, with abandoned office buildings baking in the sun.
So what happened?
The Fed’s yo-yo interest rates first flooded real estate with low rates and cheap money. Which were overbuilt.
Then came the lockdowns, which forced millions to figure out new workday patterns. People liked foregoing the long commute (not to mention the free money). Despite every effort, downtown businesses have not been able to get all workers back.
These days, everyone talks about hybrid models of working, some in-person and some remote. But judging from observation, remote is winning. In any case, even a 30 percent reduction in the footprint of office space once the leases are renewed could topple the entire sector.
The restaurant and retail sectors of downtown feel the pinch, with more closures all the time. Adding to the pressure are absurd levels of inflation and ever-riskier streets on matters of personal security. Put it all together and there is ever less reason to slog to the office.
When the Fed panic-hiked interest rates in the 2021 inflation, that put trillions of commercial real estate underwater even without other factors. Add to that crime, inflation, plus remote work, and you have a dangerous mix that could topple cities as we know them.
This could mimic and elaborate upon last year’s bank crisis, where falling bond prices panicked depositors. That crisis only stopped when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell effectively bailed out every bank in America with sweetheart loans written on fictitious asset values along with unlimited taxpayer guarantees through the comically underfunded FDIC.
By the way, the FDIC is essentially guaranteeing more than $20 trillion in deposits on just more than $100 billion. So they’ve got a half-penny on the dollar.
Without those government pre-bailouts, one paper last year by researchers at Stanford and Columbia estimated that 1,619 U.S. banks—about a third of them—could be at risk of failure.
The problem is that nothing was actually fixed. In fact, it’s getting worse. For the simple reason that as the months roll by there’s more and more debt coming due.
And that brings us to Mr. Crombie, who noted that there’s $929 billion of commercial real estate debt coming due in the next 9 1/2 months.
That’s up 28 percent from last year, and it’s getting bigger every day as banks pretend that loans are still healthy by effectively adding missed payments.
We’re starting to see glitches in the matrix; New York Community Bank just went through a near-death experience over its garbage portfolio of commercial real estate loans, dropping almost 80 percent before it was bailed out by vulture investors while the megabanks hover like megavultures.
More will come. Potentially a lot more: A recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that up to 385 American banks could fail over commercial real estate loans alone.
These would overwhelmingly be small regional banks, who typically hold a third of their assets in commercial real estate loans.
They hold so much because they know their local markets best, but the Fed poisoned that chalice by flooding easy money to developers.
For now, we’re only seeing the sickest banks dropping out of the herd. That could dramatically accelerate as that $1 trillion-plus in loans comes due.
Commercial real estate delinquency rates have already jumped to 6 1/2 percent—up 30 percent in a matter of months. Rates of distress in office loans just hit 11 percent.
When the smoke clears, we could lose dozens, even hundreds, of regional banks. Going by the last time with savings and loans, taxpayers ate 80 percent of the losses.
Meaning that you could be on the hook for trillions, while the megabanks gorge on the carcass.
Slashing interest rates could staunch the bleeding. But with inflation marching up every month—currently at 5 1/2 percent annualized—that’s not going to happen.
Originally published on the author’s Substack, reposted from the Brownstone Institute
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 13:45 - Israel Mounts Largest Attack On Syria In Years, Over 40 Dead
Israel Mounts Largest Attack On Syria In Years, Over 40 Dead
On Friday Israel conducted its deadliest strikes on Syria in months, or perhaps even years, given the immense death toll is mounting into several dozens killed amid a large emergency response to the scene.
The airstrikes were conducted deep into Syria, in northern Syria’s Aleppo province, and left over 40 people dead. This reportedly included Syrian soldiers, Hezbollah militants, and civilians. Most international reports are saying 42 were killed, but the Syrian government did not initially give a precise casualty count.
Stillframe of local footage showing massive attack on northern Aleppo. The anti-Assad opposition and UK-based organization Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that the Aleppo attack left the highest number of dead among Syrian soldiers in a single such Israeli attack. While Israel doesn’t typically directly own up to or confirm such attacks on Syrian soil, its military has been conducting sporadic attacks on Syria going back years.
The attack happened in the pre-dawn, overnight hours – with state-run SANA emphasizing that many civilians were killed and wounded, but without giving a figure.
Syria’s defense ministry pointed to the airstrikes having some level of coordination from “terrorist organizations” on the ground which “in conjunction” to the air raid carried out drone attacks, presumably from Al-Qaeda (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) occupied Idlib. Some reports are saying that Israeli warplanes hit a “Hezbollah warehouse” – though there’s no ground confirmation of this.
This new major attack comes the day after Israeli airstrikes on a suburb of Damascus, which reportedly wounded two civilians. Israeli officials and media have long claimed to be waging a campaign against Iranian and IRGC operatives and assets in Syria.
Sky News has verified social media video showing massive explosions from the site of the overnight Aleppo attacks:
⚡️Sky News publishes scenes showing the bloody Israeli strikes on Aleppo pic.twitter.com/xgLxjrNJmP
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 29, 2024
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After the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack, this ‘counter Iran’ campaign has also focused on Lebanon, where Tehran-backed Hezbollah has entered a hot conflict with Israeli forces along the border.
The Syrian government under President Bashar Al-Assad has frequently lodged formal complaints at the United Nations that the country’s sovereignty is constantly being violated by Israeli aggression, however, this is by and large fallen on deaf ears.
In the initial days and weeks after Oct.7, Syria had lobbed several rockets toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which left no casualties. Much of the Syrian populace has meanwhile become frustrated and expressed growing anger that the Russian military, has has long had a significant presence inside Syria (especially since 2015), has not done more to try and intercept inbound Israeli jets.
As far as Israeli attacks, Moscow has long been content to stay on the sidelines, so long as the ostensible targets are said to be ‘Iranian-linked’.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 13:10 - Beware Of Squatters
Beware Of Squatters
Authored by Betsy McCaughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
If you own a home and don’t want to lose it, keep reading.
A sign advertises apartments for rent in New York City. (Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images) Homeowners who go on vacation or a business trip, even for just a week, are returning to find their houses overtaken by trespassers who fraudulently claim a right to be there. It’s happening to tens of thousands of homeowners from New York City to Atlanta and Los Angeles.
When owners call the police, they’re told police can’t help. It’s a civil matter, and they have to file an eviction lawsuit, which can drag on for months or years because housing courts are backlogged.
Meanwhile, owners are out on the street while squatters are living free, destroying houses, and even selling off owners’ belongings.
If you found a stranger sitting in your car and called the police, they would immediately ask to see the registration and decide who owns it, according to Georgetown law professor Jonathan Turley. They wouldn’t let the thief drive off. But the law is stacked against homeowners.
You can thank leftist lawmakers who have degraded property rights and tilted the law to favor criminals. The result is an epidemic of brazen squatting.
In New York state, a homeowner faced with a trespasser can expect eviction to take two years. Meanwhile, the owner is barred from turning off utilities, removing belongings, or doing anything else to get the invaders out. It’s crazy.
New York state Assemblyman Jake Blumencranz of Long Island introduced legislation saying a squatter is not a tenant and is not entitled to the same protections. Will it pass in Albany? Don’t hold your breath.
But some states are acting quickly against this crime wave.
The Florida Legislature passed a bill to empower police to immediately remove anyone who can’t produce a notarized lease. Georgia’s statehouse passed the Squatter Reform Act, making squatting a crime—criminal trespass—to be handled by the police, not housing court. It’s likely to pass the Senate shortly.
In blue states such as California and New York, is there hope for homeowners to get protection against squatters? Not from Congress. Democrats in Congress are actually pushing a federal housing law that would bar landlords from learning whether potential tenants have criminal records, including past squatting offenses.
But there is a remedy: bringing a lawsuit in federal court against states such as New York and California that fail to protect property rights. The U.S. Constitution enshrines property rights as a fundamental guarantee. And recently, the justices have struck down state laws that allow trespassers to interfere with property rights. In 2021, the Pacific Legal Foundation brought a suit on behalf of a property owner, and the court ruled in Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid that “government-authorized invasions of property” amount to a taking just as if the government had taken the property directly.
Favoring intruders over owners constitutes a “taking” that violates the Fifth Amendment, which says government cannot impinge on your right to your property.
There’s no time to waste in acting to protect homeowners.
Venezuelan TikTok influencer Leonel Moreno claims that invading vacant homes is the only option for illegal migrants flooding into the United States. His now-deleted TikTok video explaining how to identify a home that is empty and ready for the taking reached 4 million views.
Surprised? Don’t be. Criminals from south of the border are coming in droves to plunder the far wealthier United States. Some cross illegally and are recruited by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and El Salvador’s MS-13. Others are coming in on tourist visas. Law enforcement is reporting a surge in South American burglary gangs operating in at least half the states in the United States.
Of course, many migrants are honest and hardworking. But there’s no denying that a movement northward to “take what you can get” poses new danger to homeowners, including the risk of squatters.
As Mr. Moreno says, “If a house is not inhabited, we can seize it.”
Tell lawmakers to act now to protect homeowners. This is the United States. Here, property rights are not up for debate. They’re guaranteed in the Bill of Rights.
You worked for it, you paid for it, it’s yours. Period.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 12:35 - "Huge Problem": Pentagon's Rapid Wartime Response Cargo Ships Trapped In Baltimore After Bridge Collapse
“Huge Problem”: Pentagon’s Rapid Wartime Response Cargo Ships Trapped In Baltimore After Bridge Collapse
Two high-speed military cargo ships are stuck in the Port of Baltimore following Tuesday morning’s collapse of the 1.6-mile-long Francis Scott Key Bridge. The major US East Coast port has been paralyzed for several days as the bridge collapse prevents inbound and outbound vessel traffic along the harbor’s channel.
Using the automatic identification system, or AIS, data that tracks commercial vessels, three bulk carriers, two general cargo ships, one vehicle carrier, one tanker, and four Ready Reserve Force vessels (RRF), along with the container ship Dali that struck the bridge, are trapped in the harbor, according to the shipping blog gCaptain.
The three bulk carriers include:
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The Liberian-flagged JY River, owned by JIADE INTERNATIONAL SHIP and managed by WAH KWONG SHIP MANAGEMENT HK of Hong Kong.
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The Thailand-flagged Phatra Naree, owned by PRECIOUS STONES SHIPPING LTD and managed by PRECIOUS SHIPPING PCL of Thailand.
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The Portuguese-flagged Klara Oldendorff, owned and managed OLDENDORFF CARRIERS GMBH & CO of Germany.
The vehicle carrier is:
- The Swedish-flagged Carmen, owned by WALL RO/RO AB and managed by WALLENIUS MARINE AB of Sweden.
The general cargo ships include:
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The French-flagged Saimaagracht, owned by REDERIJ SAIMAAGRACHT and managed by SPLIETHOFF’S BEVRACHTINGS BV of the Netherlands.
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The Panama-flagged Balsa 94, owned by EASTERN CAPITAL MARINE INC and managed by HIONG GUAN NAVEGACION CO LTD of Hong Kong.
The tanker is:
- The Marshall Islands-flagged Palanca Rio, owned by MINSHENG RUIYANG TIANJIN SHPG and managed by PUMA ENERGY SUPPLY & TRADING of Singapore.
The US Maritime Administration (MARAD) Ready Reserve Force vessels include:
- The Cape Washington, a Cape W Class roll-on/roll-off vessel.
- The Gary I. Gordon, a Gordon-class roll-on/roll-off vessel.
- The SS Antares (T-AKR-294), a Algol-class fast sealift vehicle cargo ship.
- The SS Denebola (T-AKR-294), another Algol-class fast sealift vehicle cargo ship.
According to the military blog The War Zone (TWZ), Algol class vessels are “some of the fastest cargo vessels of their general size anywhere in the world.” These ships are part of the RRF, a subset of vessels within MARAD’s National Defense Reserve Fleet (NDRF) that provide surge sealift capability to the Pentagon for overseas conflicts.
TWZ said the activation process of RRF vessels takes about five to ten days. The vessels are operated with a skeleton crew until called upon.
RRF are stationed at major marine ports around the US.
TWZ noted the Algol class vessels have been called into action several times over the last three decades:
Algol class have been called upon multiple times since they entered US service. Just five of these ships were responsible for transporting 20 percent of US cargo sent from the United States to Saudi Arabia during the first phase of Operation Desert Shield in the immediate run-up to the First Gulf War. The ships would go on to deliver 13 percent of all cargo that arrived in Saudi Arabia from the United States in the full course of that conflict.
The US military subsequently used Algols to support operations in Somalia and the Balkans in the 1990s, as well as the opening phases of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the early 2000s.
Breitbart News’ Kristina Wong reported on Thursday that “The Department of Transportation will not say how many National Defense Reserve Fleet Ships are Stuck” in the Baltimore harbor.
Baltimore Bridge Mess: DOT Will Not Say How Many National Defense Reserve Fleet Ships Stuck https://t.co/Nz7FPPQ2QT via @BreitbartNews
— Kristina Wong 🇺🇸 (@kristina_wong) March 28, 2024
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Wong quoted John Konrad, CEO of gCaptain, who warned the stuck RRF vessels are a “huge problem if a war starts [but] not much of a problem if the next few months are peaceful.”
According to CEO of GCaptain and maritime journalist@johnkonrad, four Ready Reserve Force ships are stuck in the port — the SS Antares, MV Cape Washington, MV Gary I. Gordon, and the SS Denebola.
He said the four ships being stuck is a “huge problem if a war starts [but] not… https://t.co/4GOZHtuWPE
— Kristina Wong 🇺🇸 (@kristina_wong) March 28, 2024
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The current readiness of the RRF fleet is unknown. And just like that, part of America’s RRF fleet was taken out not by a missile or suicide drone, but a container ship that allegedly suffered a catastrophic ‘electric issue’. America’s enemies are taking note.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 12:00 -
- Sick Of It All
Sick Of It All
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Every week, usually once or twice, I sit down to put onto paper my thoughts about the market. And every week, my disgust not only for the rigged system that encompasses our equity markets, but also for the sound of my own whining, grows exponentially.
When I sit down to perfunctorily prattle on about how nothing makes sense and how I constantly see things the polar opposite of 99% of everybody else in the world of finance every week, I usually wonder two things.
First, I wonder whether or not today will finally be the day that I capitulate, get bullish on the stock market, and start bowing religiously to a statue of Stephanie Kelton.
“I should know, I’ve followed a few!” – Arthur
After all, the incessant price moves higher in Bitcoin are part of what triggered me to eventually reassess my thought process on the cryptocurrency. And even though I got bullish for reasons other than price, why couldn’t the same happen with equities?
Second, I try to conceptualize exactly how fast the universe can, and will, make a total ass out of me by crashing markets 50% in 15 minutes in the days, hours, minutes, or probably even seconds after I’d have such a shift in sentiment.
Which is why, like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, I will continue to forge forward, exasperated, regardless of the inconvenient fact that I have no arms or legs left. But don’t let anybody ever tell you that my spirit was easy to break.
“The Black Knight always triumphs!”
I had my most recent bout of vomiting in my own mouth just thinking about how wrong I’ve been on macro analysis late on Wednesday, when, as if part of some ant-burning-under-a-magnifying-glass-type-cosmic-conspiracy to torture my psyche, the Fed’s Chris Waller came out and assured the public that he was in no rush to cut interest rates. Here’s a look at some of the headlines that came out of Waller’s speech in New York:
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“There is no rush to cut the policy rate,” Waller said in a speech in New York.
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The recent data “tells me that it is prudent to hold this rate at its current restrictive stance perhaps for longer than previously thought to help keep inflation on a sustainable trajectory toward 2%.”
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Waller still expects to cut rates this year but isn’t ready to take that step without further evidence that inflation continues to drop.
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Waller said analyzing three- and six-month measures of the Consumer Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, tells him that progress on inflation has slowed and may have stalled.
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“The risk of waiting a little longer to cut rates is significantly lower than acting too soon,” said Waller. “Cutting the policy rate too soon and risking a sustained rebound in inflation is something I want to avoid.”
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Waller said that he is considering reducing the overall number of rate cuts this year or pushing them further into the future in response to the recent data if things don’t improve. But he also said he isn’t rushing to take that step yet.
While I’m not sure how the market will receive this blindingly, exhaustively obvious negative news, my guess is by the time you read this at 4:45am EST on Thursday morning, futures will be raging higher and every index will be up in the pre-market session. After all, nothing says “bull case” like the Fed not being able to meet objectives in bringing down inflation and then a Fed governor telling the market not to expect the very same rate cut bonanza it has rallied more than 10% expecting this year alone, despite already being pornographically overvalued.
Not unlike how when Donald Trump said, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters,” I’m not sure there’s anything the Fed could do right now to stop the market’s pre-ordained ascent. As I said in last week’s totally non-award-winning analysis, I have no f*cking idea where the liquidity is coming from, no clue what the market is thinking, and pretty much don’t understand anything at all.
“Eat sh*t, Waller” — S&P 500 (probably) | Chart via Zero Hedge
I know what you’re thinking: “Why then, Chris, do you run a financial newsletter?”
That’s a great question. I wish I had a great answer for you other than it’s better than therapy for me and I get paid instead of having to pay someone else. But hey, 99% of “newsletter writers” don’t have any clue what they’re talking about — at least I admit it.
Look, it’s either me or lessons from Whitney Tilson’s fishing trip and ruminations about his colonoscopy. Choose wisely.
I’m breaking Whitney’s balls, of course. He’s a good dude and was one of the first people to be nice to me on Wall St. a decade ago.
Anyway, continuing the sick satire playing out on Wednesday, S&P came out after the bell on Wednesday and affirmed the United States’ credit rating and said things look stable, casually noting that debt to GDP and interest to revenue are out of f*cking control (my words, not S&P’s) before summing things up with a “stable” outlook despite the fact. Among other brain farts, including praising monetary policy execution, S&P concluded:
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A diversified and resilient economy with solid growth, extensive monetary policy flexibility, and benefits associated with the unique status as the issuer of the world’s leading reserve currency underpin the U.S. sovereign rating.
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A high debt burden, with net general government debt approaching 100% of GDP and interest to revenue over 10%, and difficulties garnering bipartisan cooperation to strengthen U.S. fiscal dynamics are credit weaknesses.
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We affirmed our ‘AA+/A-1+’ sovereign credit ratings on the U.S.
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The outlook remains stable, indicating our expectation of continued economic resiliency; proactive, effective monetary policy execution; and our view that government officials will continue to resolve near-term fiscal deadlines, such as addressing the debt ceiling, in a timely manner.
S&P said: “We could lower the rating over the next two to three years if unexpected negative political developments weigh on the strength of American institutions and the effectiveness of long-term policymaking, or jeopardize the dollar’s status as the world’s leading reserve currency.”
They continued: “The ratings could also come under pressure if already-high deficits were to rise, owing to political inability to contain rising spending or to manage revenue implications of future changes in the tax code.”
Is it me, or are both of these situations literally occurring already right now?
As if people in the world of economics pride themselves on analytical non sequiturs, S&P’s rating and reasoning for their rating stand at stark odds with reality.
But then again, who really knows what reality is anymore? Me? You? This certifiably insane old bird?
“I regret saying it was transitory.”
As many people know, Fitch downgraded the United States last year (my exceptional analysis here). They had it right. Whether we have the reserve currency or not, there are extraordinary, unprecedented risks facing the United States economy and the US dollar. Both S&P and Chris Waller came out and said today that the reserve currency status of the dollar gives the United States enormous flexibility.
But just because we have enormous flexibility doesn’t mean that we can bend and not eventually break. Does policy flexibility mean that we can literally do whatever we want and nothing matters at all? Have we replaced the natural laws of economics and rewritten the basics of mathematics and macroeconomics? We think we have, but we haven’t.
If you think of the basic immutable laws of macroeconomics and mathematics as a bathroom shower, every layer of bullsh*t, monetary policy, money printing, foreign war mongering slush fund, overspending, misuse, hubris, rewriting of the rules, and Stephanie Kelton book is like adding one of those Bath Fitter (TM) renovations to your shower. You’re not replacing the disgusting, mold-ridden, toxic equipment, you’re just covering it up with another layer of shiny-looking fiberglass.
Left: The “old school” laws of economics. Right: The trillion dollar coin idea.
The question then becomes: how many of these layers can we pile on top of one another before the room becomes so f*cking small that we can’t fit in the shower anymore?
And, then what? We just walk around stinking to high heaven?
I mean, for f*ck’s sake, we’ve got lifelong spend-ocrat Steve Liesman of all people breaking down on CNBC yesterday, openly worrying about how the United States is going to service its debt obligations and calling bullsh*t on the Inflation Reduction Act. Putting aside the insane irony that Steve Liesman has sat at Fed press conferences for the last decade and massaged the feet of whoever the Fed chair was at the time instead of asking them serious questions about accountability, when Liesman starts to worry, isn’t it time to take notice?
For the last decade, I have watched dozens of Fed press conferences (feels like trillions) where Liesman has done nothing but make excuses for central bankers and throw them softball questions, in between the time he takes to congratulate them on the great job they’re doing. Very few people on his network, with the exception of possibly Guy Adami and Rick Santelli (combined total airtime each day: 32 seconds), have raised any questions about the Fed’s trajectory. Most days on CNBC look like this:
Guests who are critical of the Federal Reserve, like Peter Schiff, have been blackballed from the network entirely. And now, all of a sudden, it’s time to panic? What’s next? Will Paul Krugman or Jeremy Siegel be taking to CNBC to all of a sudden “remember” the lessons of Milton Friedman and Thomas Sowell?
Waller’s remarks Wednesday wrap up what will be the remainder of any Fed commentary on this short week. The entire market has placed an “all-in” wager on rate cuts this year, and Waller has reiterated his position as “we need to wait and see what happens.” And while he said circumstances would need to be extenuating for it to occur, he even brought up the idea of hikes. Considering the market is a forward-looking indicator and it has already pulled in probably six months to a year of expectations of rates being lower (and Trump tax cuts again, and AI growth, and more money printing, and colonizing Mars, and Tesla robotaxis that double as laundry folding humanoid droids), rates staying the same for longer – or a hike – would be devastating.
And so, we sit and wait for the next bullsh*t CPI print to try and determine whether or not the government has figured out a new way to disguise the fact that prices have consistently been up at least 10% almost every year at any point in the past, especially these last three years.
Both Waller and S&P Global are leaning, one way or another, on the US dollar’s reserve currency status as the foundation and basis for their “everything isn’t totally screwed and backwards” outlook.
These conclusions by Waller and S&P are the latest in a long line of trillions of analyses and judgments that have relied on the US dollar remaining reserve currency for the time period of “forever times infinity” to be correct.
I think of each one of these analyses, which arrived daily by the hundreds across Wall Street, as sheets of paper being placed on the back of a donkey that is trying to scale Mount Everest. A couple of sheets of paper, the donkey doesn’t notice. When you have enough for a ream of paper, the donkey starts to notice a little weight. Approaching a century into the US dollar’s dominance, the donkey is carrying on its back a stack of papers that would puncture the ozone layer at this point.
It may not be Wednesday’s two additional sheets that cripple the donkey on its continued journey up the hill, but at some point, the weight is going to become unbearable. And watching it all play out, for me, already has.
—
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Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/29/2024 – 11:30 -
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