Sep 30

Today’s News 30th September 2020

  • Romanian Village Elects Mayor Who Died From Covid Complications Days Before The Election
    Romanian Village Elects Mayor Who Died From Covid Complications Days Before The Election

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 09/30/2020 – 02:45

    You just can’t keep a good man down. 

    Villagers in Deveselu, South Romania like their mayor so much, they elected him for a third term – despite the fact that he died from Covid-19 complications 10 days before the country’s elections.

    Mayor Ion Aliman was reelected in a “landslide” for the village after his death came too close to the election for officials to remove his name from the ballot. He would have been 57 years old on the day of the election. The village is home to about 3,000 people, according to AP. 

    Hundreds of villagers went to the polls to vote for Aliman, who won 1,057 of the 1,600 votes that were cast in the village. After the election results came out, villagers visited his grave to pay their respects. 

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    Romanian villagers with Mayor Ion Aliman

    “This is your victory” some villagers said, surrounding his grave. “We will make you proud, we know that from somewhere up there you are watching.”

    Aliman was a member of the country’s left leaning Social Democrat Party who, despite the good local news, lost the Mayoral run in the country’s capital, Bucharest. 

    About 19 million voters cast ballots across Romania to elect local officials. The Social Democrat Party is expected to regain power in early December when the country has its Parliamentary vote. 

  • Azerbaijani-Armenian War: Turkish F-16s Enter The Game. Armenia Threatens To Use Iskander Missiles
    Azerbaijani-Armenian War: Turkish F-16s Enter The Game. Armenia Threatens To Use Iskander Missiles

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 09/30/2020 – 02:00

    Submitted by South Front,

    The Armenian-Azerbaijani war continues raging in the South Caucasus.

    As of September 29, the Azerbaijani advance in the Nagorno-Karabakh region struck the Armenian defense and Azerbaijani forces were not able to achieve any military breakthroughs. Armenian troops withdrew from several positions in the Talish area and east of Fuzuli.

    The Azerbaijani military has been successfully employing combat drones and artillery to destroy positions and military equipment of Armenia, but Azerbaijani mechanized infantry was unable to develop its momentum any further.

    While both sides claim that they eliminated multiple enemy fighters and made notable gains, the real situation on the ground remains more or less stable with minor gains achieved by Azerbaijani troops. Armenian sources say that 370 Azerbaijani troops were killed and over 1,000 injured. The number of killed Armenian fighters, according to Azerbaijani sources, is over 1,000. Armenian sources also note the notable role of Turkey in the developing conflict.

    Armenian President Armen Sarkissian said that Turkey has been assisting Azerbaijan in its war against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic with advisers, mercenaries and even F-16 fighter jets. He added that the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still possible through dialogue. However, the President emphasized that the Armenian nation cannot allow a return to the past.

    “105 years ago, the Ottoman Empire carried out the genocide of the Armenians. In no case can we allow this genocide to be repeated,” Sarkissian said.

    Armenia threatens to use Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems obtained from Russia against Azerbaijani targets if Turkish F-16 warplanes are employed on the battlefield.

    Meanwhile, Armenian Ambassador to Russia Vardan Toganyan said that members of Turkish-backed Syrian militant groups have been already participating in the conflict. He said that recently about 4,000 Turkish-backed militants were deployed to Azerbaijan. In turn, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan said that “people who have arrived from Syria and other countries of the Middle East” are fighting on the side of Armenia. Earlier, pro-Turkish sources claimed that Armenia was transporting fighters from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Thus, the sides are not only claiming that they are gaining an upper hand in the war, but also accuse each other of using foreign mercenaries and terrorists.

    On the evening of September 28, the Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic confirmed that 84 of its troops were killed in the recent escalation. The Armenian side also claimed that its forces had shot down an Azerbaijani aircraft. However, this claim was denied by the Azerbaijani military. Baku continues insisting that all Armenian claims about the Azerbaijani casualties in the war are fake news.

    On September 29, the Armenian side continued reporting about Azerbaijani helicopters being shot down, and declaring that they repelled Azerbaijani attacks. Nonetheless, the scale and intensity of the strikes by the Azerbaijani side did not demonstrate any decrease. On top of this, the Armenian Defense Ministry said that a Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet shot down an Armenian Su-25 warplane. The F-16 fighter jet allegedly took off from the Ganja Airbase in Azerbaijan and was providing air cover to combat UAVs, which were striking targets in Armenia’s Vardenis, Mec Marik and Sotk. Azerbaijan and Turkey denied Armenian claims that a Turkish F-16 shot down the Su-25.

    So far, no side has achieved a strategic advantage in the ongoing conflict. However, the Azerbaijani military, which receives extensive support from Turkey, is expected to have better chances in the prolonged conflict with Armenia, if Erevan does not receive direct military support from Russia.

  • Dramatic Video Shows Armenia Score Direct Hit On Azerbaijani Drone
    Dramatic Video Shows Armenia Score Direct Hit On Azerbaijani Drone

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 09/30/2020 – 01:00

    Now in the third day of full war in the disputed Karabakh region, Armenian forces have managed to shoot down an Azerbaijani drone that was flying over their positions, all of which was captured in widely circulating video. 

    The moment the missile struck is clear in the video given the powerful explosion and fireball that ripped through the skies over the battlefield. It underscores that both sides are increasingly deploying high-grade sophisticated weaponry in the mountainous battle zone. 

    The self-proclaimed breakaway republic of Nagarno-Karabakh, which is officially within Azerbaijan’s borders but which has been governed by ethnic Armenians since 1994, saw fighting explode over the weekend. 

    BBC reports there’s already been nearly 100 military deaths among local Armenian military forces, and many dozens of civilians killed or wounded on either side by shelling, while Azeri military casualties have not been produced. 

    Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev condemned Armenian forces’ shelling, which he said killed 10 Azeri civilians since Sunday. Al Jazeera reports that Yerevan has shot back with similar accusations of targeting civilians:

    Armenia’s defense ministry said an Armenian civilian bus in Vardenis – an Armenian border town far from Nagorno-Karabakh – caught fire after being hit by an Azeri drone, but no one appeared to be hurt. It said it was making further checks.

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    Armenia’s Ministry of Defense later on Tuesday said its forces took out another drone, marking at least two successful enemy drone downings.

    Since the start of the escalation in fighting on Sunday, tank and infantry units have been observed engaged in ground warfare. 

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    Frontline fighting has only intensified since, with a full troop mobilization declared by Armenia, and additional heavy weaponry pouring into the border region.

  • Where Is The Right's "George Soros"?
    Where Is The Right’s “George Soros”?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 23:45

    Via The American Mind,

    No Coup For You

    Democrats are preparing to win by any means necessary. What’s the Right going to do about it?

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    Michael Anton’s warning about the upcoming election, “The Coming Coup,” continues to roil the public square. Will Republican leaders do their best to prepare for the crisis of legitimacy—caused purposefully by Democrat Party changes to our normal voting procedures—that now almost surely awaits us for weeks after November 3? We hope so.

    But note well: for all the controversy it has caused, no one on the Left has yet tried to refute Anton’s article, point by point. Instead, slime continues to ooze forth from the usual crevices. At first, no one on “the other side” except Ed Kilgore at New York magazine responded. As we said in “Stop the Coup,” Kilgore, much like everyone else in the mainstream press, simply “sidesteps outrageous statements from leftist activists and Democrat Party royalty indicating they do not plan to concede even if Trump wins.” But at least Kilgore nodded towards to the substance of Anton’s article.

    The TIPsters Strike Back

    The next round of responses revealed what has become the new normal for the American Left. Let’s take three quick examples.

    First, a scurrilous, poorly constructed hit piece appeared (listen to us discuss on our ‘The Roundtable’ podcast here) smearing Anton, The American Mind, and the Claremont Institute as anti-Semitic for daring to mention George Soros’s name. As Newt Gingrich—recently silenced on Fox News for the same supposed sin—responded here at The American Mind: “This is ludicrous.” Once again, the article did not deny or disprove anything asserted in “The Coming Coup.” Instead, it absurdly called us racists.

    Nonetheless, Nils Gilman, a think-tanker and PhD from UC Berkeley and one of two central co-founders of the Transition Integrity Project that Anton called out in his article, retweeted this execrable piece of garbage and upped the ante—using it to declare that our friend and colleague Michael Anton “deserves” to be shot to death. Writing such a tweet is unthinkable for anyone in a similar position to Gilman on the American Right; we all know such a public statement would lead to unemployment and full-fledged cancellation.

    The letter that Claremont Institute President Ryan Williams sent to Gilman’s employer in reply, read in part:

    This is incitement to political violence. Mr. Gilman has yet to retract his inflammatory words.

    Is the official position of the Berggruen Institute that its political opponents should be killed? Does the Berggruen Institute countenance or tolerate advocacy of political violence by its employees? If not, why has the Berggruen Institute not disavowed this threat? Why has the Berggruen Institute not terminated the employment of Nils Gilman?

    […]

    I call on you immediately to disavow, explicitly and publicly, political violence against Michael Anton or anyone else. Failure to do so will constitute an endorsement of political violence by the Berggruen Institute, its staff, and its donors.

    Gilman and his friends laughed it off. The tweet is still up. The Berggruen Institute has not responded. And as Claremonster Steve Hayward wrote in City Journal, even the moronic Never Trumpers got in on the act.

    Charlie Sykes, an anti-Trump conservative, this week tweeted, “For no particular reason, this morning I’ve been thinking about Nicolae Ceaușescu’s last public appearance.” The Romanian dictator’s last public appearance, of course, was the execution of him and his wife following a ten-minute trial. This is not just unsubtle; it isn’t even artful.

    There is something especially pathetic about having to watch these cringing wormtongues writhe in action. Charlie Sykes is being paid now to be a useful idiot for the Left; he will not be pleased with the ultimate fate of his career should they win.

    Another TIP member, Edward Luce, recently chimed in with lies and false gossip about Anton in the Financial Times. As Anton replies in “From Death Threats to Lies”:

    It’s pretty obvious what’s going on here. TIP’s initial strategy of ignoring criticism of their open coup talk was starting to fail. They realized they needed to get back on the offensive. Hence the recent slate of “Trump Is Attempting a Coup!” articles, on which I hope to have more to say later. These latest attacks are part of a counteroffensive, pure and simple.

    The counteroffensive consists of attempts to slander us and distract the audience from the central problem.

    What Now?

    Many of the folks above know better. Many in the audience know better. But they know something else, more viscerally—especially those in the upper middle class whose professions are tied to larger forces and elite trends—namely, the white-hot ruling class fury at the Orange Bad Man. They feel it keenly now more than ever. They see the ruling class marshaling its forces, readying the purge of the heretics who dare oppose them. During these times, it is unlikely that those beholden to such forces will stick their necks out. Instead, it is easier to believe the acceptable propaganda of “polite” company.

    At present, that propaganda includes two big lies that serve as the bedrock assumptions used by the powers-that-be to stir up and scare the upper-middle, professional classes – the otherwise-very-intelligent-people – many of whom still believe Trump was a Russian agent and Vladimir Putin his handler.

    1. “Trump will not leave office. The President of the United States is prepping to refuse to peaceably transfer power if he loses the election.” This, of course, is part and parcel of the coup narrative that Anton has helped bring into the light. When the results of the election are unclear and disputed in the courts due to their own efforts to change voting procedures throughout the nation, they will say that Trump is refusing to lose office while they are on the side of the angels.

    2. “Trump is telling people to vote twice/break the law.” This is rated fake news even by fake news itself. But the whole story fits very well with the coup narrative as it delegitimizes the President and the election.

    So here, again, is the question of the hour: Do Republican leaders understand the purpose of the two false statements above and how enthusiastically—and successfully—they are being wielded as rhetorical weapons at present?

    What the other side is doing is smart. They wish to win, by any means necessary.

    But where is the Right’s George Soros?

    Where is the Right’s Transition Integrity Project and accompanying war-gaming of the possibilities this fall?

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    Are Republicans preparing for the political complications that will inevitably result from the hundreds of lawsuits Democrats have filed and will file in the future?

    Where are the Republican party’s 600+ lawyers-in-waiting?

    Where are the Right’s meetings for activist and lobbying groups to plan to protect the polling places and put people in the streets for weeks after the election?

    What we know for sure is that it is very likely that we will not know the results of the election for weeks after election day. This should now be the assumption of every thinking person on the Right. The question is: what are we going to do about it?

  • US Destroyer Shatters Navy Record For Longest Stint At Sea Due To Virus Measures
    US Destroyer Shatters Navy Record For Longest Stint At Sea Due To Virus Measures

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 23:25

    Last April and May as the United States emerged as the world’s coronavirus epicenter, the US Navy began taking emergency precautions as the outbreak started to impact entire crews and ships, as was especially the case with the whole USS Theodore Roosevelt disaster off Guam.

    These drastic measures included keeping US warships out to sea much longer than previously scheduled, especially those ships which had “clean” crew – that is, no confirmed cases of COVID-19. After all, if the only possible place for a non-infected crew to become infected was shore, then why not stay out at sea to maintain full operational readiness, or so the logic went. 

    NBC News now reports that due to these extra coronavirus measures and extended time at sea a US guided missile destroyer has now shattered all prior US Navy records for the longest consecutive number of days at sea for a military surface ship.

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    USS Stout, via US Navy/Flickr

    “The USS Stout reached 208 days at sea Sept. 26, spending nearly seven months in the Middle East and the North Africa area, known as the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations,” NBC writes, citing US Navy press statements. “The previous record of 207 days, held by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the USS San Jacinto, was also set this year.”

    During normal times a warship could expect to make multiple port visits in various parts of the globe traversed, however, the Navy has for months had a ban on port visits in effect to mitigate the possibility of new outbreaks among seamen. 

    The USS Stout had previously deployed as part of the USS Eisenhower Carrier group but remained at sea long after the carrier returned home at the start of summer. 

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    A statement from 5th Fleet commander Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo said, “We are extremely proud of Stout’s accomplishments in theater as they’ve been operating to ensure freedom of navigation.”

    He added: “Under the challenges of COVID-19 and the uncertainty of regional tensions, Stout embodied their motto and prevailed with ‘Courage, Valor and Integrity.'”

    However, once defense affairs journalist quipped that it’s “not a record you want” given it was entirely done out of force of extreme circumstances, with parts of naval operations clearly hampered by the virus.

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    Throughout the summer America’s rivals look on closely, especially China and Russia, eager to see just how severely operations and military readiness will be impacted across the Navy and Department of Defense by COVID-19.

  • The Election Has Already Been Hijacked & The Winner Decided: 'We, The People' Lose
    The Election Has Already Been Hijacked & The Winner Decided: ‘We, The People’ Lose

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 23:05

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Free election of masters does not abolish the masters or the slaves.”

    – Herbert Marcuse

    Republicans and Democrats alike fear that the other party will attempt to hijack this election.

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    President Trump is convinced that mail-in ballots are a scam except in Florida, where it’s safe to vote by mail because of its “great Republican governor.”

    The FBI is worried about foreign hackers continuing to target and exploit vulnerabilities in the nation’s electoral system, sowing distrust about the parties, the process and the outcome.

    I, on the other hand, am not overly worried: after all, the voting booths have already been hijacked by a political elite comprised of Republicans and Democrats who are determined to retain power at all costs.

    The outcome is a foregone conclusion: the Deep State will win and “we the people” will lose.

    The damage has already been done.

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which has been tasked with helping to “secure” the elections and protect the nation against cyberattacks, is not exactly an agency known for its adherence to freedom principles.

    After all, this is the agency largely responsible for turning the American republic into a police state. Since its creation, the DHS has ushered in the domestic use of surveillance drones, expanded the reach of fusion centers, stockpiled an alarming amount of ammunition (including hollow point bullets), urged Americans to become snitches through a “see something, say something” campaign, overseen the fumbling antics of TSA agents everywhere, militarized the nation’s police, spied on activists and veterans, distributed license plate readers and cell phone trackers to law enforcement agencies, contracted to build detention camps, carried out military drills and lockdowns in American cities, conducted virtual strip searches of airline passengers, established Constitution-free border zones, funded city-wide surveillance cameras, and undermined the Fourth Amendment at every turn.

    So, no, I’m not losing a night’s sleep over the thought that this election might by any more rigged than it already is.

    And I’m not holding my breath in the hopes that the winner of this year’s popularity contest will save us from government surveillance, weaponized drones, militarized police, endless wars, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture schemes, overcriminalization, profit-driven private prisons, graft and corruption, or any of the other evils that masquerade as official government business these days.

    You see, after years of trying to wake Americans up to the reality that there is no political savior who will save us from the police state, I’ve come to realize that Americans want to engage in the reassurance ritual of voting.

    They want to believe the fantasy that politics matter.

    They want to be persuaded that there’s a difference between the Republicans and Democrats (there’s not).

    Some will swear that Donald Trump has been an improvement on Barack Obama (he is not).

    Others are convinced that Joe Biden’s values are different from Donald Trump’s (with both of them, money talks).

    Most of all, voters want to buy into the fantasy that when they elect a president, they’re getting someone who truly represents the citizenry rather than the Deep State (in fact, in the oligarchy that is the American police state, an elite group of wealthy donors is calling the shots in cooperation with a political elite).

    The sad truth is that it doesn’t matter who wins the White House, because they all work for the same boss: Corporate America. Understanding this, many corporations hedge their bets on who will win the White House by splitting their donations between Democratic and Republican candidates.

    Politics is a game, a joke, a hustle, a con, a distraction, a spectacle, a sport, and for many devout Americans, a religion. It is a political illusion aimed at persuading the citizenry that we are free, that our vote counts, and that we actually have some control over the government when in fact, we are prisoners of a Corporate Elite.

    In other words, it’s a sophisticated ruse aimed at keeping us divided and fighting over two parties whose priorities, more often than not, are exactly the same so that we don’t join forces and do what the Declaration of Independence suggests, which is to throw the whole lot out and start over.

    It’s no secret that both parties support endless war, engage in out-of-control spending, ignore the citizenry’s basic rights, have no respect for the rule of law, are bought and paid for by Big Business, care most about their own power, and have a long record of expanding government and shrinking liberty. Most of all, both parties enjoy an intimate, incestuous history with each other and with the moneyed elite that rule this country.

    Despite the jabs the candidates volley at each other for the benefit of the cameras, they’re a relatively chummy bunch away from the spotlight. Moreover, despite Congress’ so-called political gridlock, our elected officials seem to have no trouble finding common ground when it’s time to collectively kowtow to the megacorporations, lobbyists, defense contractors and other special interest groups to whom they have pledged their true allegiance.

    So don’t be fooled by the smear campaigns and name-calling or drawn into their divide-and-conquer politics of hate. They’re just useful tactics that have been proven to engage voters and increase voter turnout while keeping the citizenry at each other’s throats.

    It’s all a grand illusion.

    It used to be that the cogs, wheels and gear shifts in the government machinery worked to keep the republic running smoothly. However, without our fully realizing it, the mechanism has changed. Its purpose is no longer to keep our republic running smoothly. To the contrary, this particular contraption’s purpose is to keep the Deep State in power. Its various parts are already a corrupt part of the whole.

    Just consider how insidious, incestuous and beholden to the corporate elite the various “parts” of the mechanism have become.

    Congress. Perhaps the most notorious offenders and most obvious culprits in the creation of the corporate-state, Congress has proven itself to be both inept and avaricious, oblivious champions of an authoritarian system that is systematically dismantling their constituents’ fundamental rights. Long before they’re elected, Congressmen are trained to dance to the tune of their wealthy benefactors, so much so that they spend two-thirds of their time in office raising money. As Reuters reports, “For many lawmakers, the daily routine in Washington involves fundraising as much as legislating. The culture of nonstop political campaigning shapes the rhythms of daily life in Congress, as well as the landscape around the Capitol. It also means that lawmakers often spend more time listening to the concerns of the wealthy than anyone else.”

    The President. What Americans want in a president and what they need are two very different things. The making of a popular president is an exercise in branding, marketing and creating alternate realities for the consumer—a.k.a., the citizenry—that allows them to buy into a fantasy about life in America that is utterly divorced from our increasingly grim reality. Take President Trump, for instance, who got elected by promising to drain the swamp in Washington DC. Instead of putting an end to the corruption, however, Trump has paved the way for lobbyists, corporations, the military industrial complex, and the rest of the Deep State (also referred to as “The 7th Floor Group”) to feast on the carcass of the dying American republic. The lesson: to be a successful president, it doesn’t matter whether you keep your campaign promises, sell the American people to the highest bidder, or march in lockstep with the Corporate State as long as you keep telling people what they most want to hear.

    The Supreme Court. The U.S. Supreme Court—once the last refuge of justice, the one governmental body really capable of rolling back the slowly emerging tyranny enveloping America—has instead become the champion of the American police state, absolving government and corporate officials of their crimes while relentlessly punishing the average American for exercising his or her rights. Like the rest of the government, the Court has routinely prioritized profit, security, and convenience over the basic rights of the citizenry. Indeed, law professor Erwin Chemerinsky makes a compelling case that the Supreme Court, whose “justices have overwhelmingly come from positions of privilege,” almost unerringly throughout its history sides with the wealthy, the privileged, and the powerful.

    The Media. Of course, this triumvirate of total control would be completely ineffective without a propaganda machine provided by the world’s largest corporations. Besides shoveling drivel down our throats at every possible moment, the so-called news agencies which are supposed to act as bulwarks against government propaganda have instead become the mouthpieces of the state. The pundits which pollute our airwaves are at best court jesters and at worst propagandists for the false reality created by the American government. When you have internet and media giants such as Google, NBC Universal, News Corporation, Turner Broadcasting, Thomson Reuters, Comcast, Time Warner, Viacom, Public Radio International and The Washington Post Company donating to political candidates, you no longer have an independent media—what we used to refer to as the “fourth estate”—that can be trusted to hold the government accountable.

    The American People. “We the people” now belong to a permanent underclass in America. It doesn’t matter what you call us—chattel, slaves, worker bees, it’s all the same—what matters is that we are expected to march in lockstep with and submit to the will of the state in all matters, public and private. Unfortunately, through our complicity in matters large and small, we have allowed an out-of-control corporate-state apparatus to take over every element of American society.

    We’re playing against a stacked deck.

    The game is rigged, and “we the people” keep getting dealt the same losing hand. The people dealing the cards—the politicians, the corporations, the judges, the prosecutors, the police, the bureaucrats, the military, the media, etc.—have only one prevailing concern, and that is to maintain their power and control over the citizenry, while milking us of our money and possessions.

    It really doesn’t matter what you call them—Republicans, Democrats, the 1%, the elite, the controllers, the masterminds, the shadow government, the police state, the surveillance state, the military industrial complex—so long as you understand that while they are dealing the cards, the deck will always be stacked in their favor.

    As I make clear in my book, Battlefield America: The War on the American People, our failure to remain informed about what is taking place in our government, to know and exercise our rights, to vocally protest, to demand accountability on the part of our government representatives, and at a minimum to care about the plight of our fellow Americans has been our downfall.

    Now we find ourselves once again caught up in the spectacle of another presidential election, and once again the majority of Americans are acting as if this election will make a difference and bring about change. As if the new boss will be different from the old boss.

    When in doubt, just remember what the astute commentator George Carlin had to say about the matter:

    The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything. They own all the important land. They own and control the corporations. They’ve long since bought and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the state houses, the city halls. They got the judges in their back pockets and they own all the big media companies, so they control just about all of the news and information you get to hear. They got you by the balls. They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying. Lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want. They want more for themselves and less for everybody else, but I’ll tell you what they don’t want. They don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interests. They want obedient workers. Obedient workers, people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork…. It’s a big club and you ain’t in it. You and I are not in the big club. …The table is tilted, folks. The game is rigged and nobody seems to notice…. Nobody seems to care. That’s what the owners count on…. It’s called the American Dream, ’cause you have to be asleep to believe it.

  • South Korean-Built Mini Nuclear Reactors That "Won't Melt Down" Approved For US
    South Korean-Built Mini Nuclear Reactors That “Won’t Melt Down” Approved For US

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 22:45

    Apparently it’s not over for South Korea’s commercial nuclear development industry after in 2017 President Moon Jae-in initiated his plan to phase out nuclear power and halt all reactor construction projects in the country.

    Now for the first time South Korean-built key nuclear components will be used in the United States as part of efforts to introduced further safeguards at US facilities. The cutting edge new ‘miniature’ design was previously described in Forbes as a reactor that “doesn’t need the complex back-up power systems that traditional reactors require” and which “won’t melt down or otherwise cause any of the nightmares people think about when imagining the worse for nuclear power.”

    Nikkei Asian Review reports this week that “Miniature nuclear reactors that use key components from South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction have won first-of-its-kind certification for use in the U.S.“

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    It’s part of a $1.3 billion contract between Doosan and American company NuScale Power for work on a major project in Utah, approved by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in late August.

    The nuclear plant is scheduled to come online by 2029 under the operation of Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, with the South Korean-made small reactor modules, or SMRs, considered crucial to the cutting edge infrastructure and updated safety measures.

    Nikkei describes what’s slated to be a 12-module plant:

    Each SMR unit is capable of producing 50 megawatts of power, or about 5% that of a conventional reactor. An SMR is considered a safer alternative since it can be cooled in a water tank, cutting out the risk of an accident due to problems with water pumps or the electrical source.

    Doosan’s SMRs are designed to be placed in underground water tanks. There is only a minor risk of reactors losing cooling capabilities due to earthquakes or other external factors.

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    Via NuScale Power

    “Small Modular Reactor” size comparison to conventional reactor:

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    Doosan has been a lead developer behind South Korea’s nuclear power industry, responsible for construction of at least two dozen reactors at five nuclear plans, but has seen its finances on the brink of collapse in recent years amid Moon Jae-in’s nuclear phaseout and amid the move toward other ‘safer’ alternative energy sources.

    “The U.S. approval of the Utah project, which greenlights the $1.3 billion SMR order, will lead to an injection of much-needed capital. That and an agreement to sell off its construction equipment business have lifted Doosan’s stock price,” Nikkei notes.

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    Via US Dept. of Energy/NuScale

    As a ‘faster’ and ‘cheaper’ to install – but purportedly safer – reactor design, it could as Nikkie underscores, be “a promising antidote to the trend away from nuclear power in Western countries.”

    The US Department of Energy deems Small Modular Reactors as “a key part of the Department’s goal to develop safe, clean, and affordable nuclear power options,” according to its official website.

  • "Will You Shut Up Man?" – Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Dominant But Biden Better Than Expected
    “Will You Shut Up Man?” – Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Dominant But Biden Better Than Expected

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 22:44

    And just like that it’s over…

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    It was contentious, for sure; but here is a quick summary of the performance:

    • SCOTUS – Trump won by TKO

    • COVID – Biden won, but close.

    • Economy – A tie

    • Race – A tie (Trump facts on Biden’s history versus Biden repetitive claims Trump’s a racist but no gotcha)

    • Law And Order – Trump won (Biden unable to get past ‘defund’ and reform)

    • Track Records – Trump won (Biden unable to get past Green New Deal malarkey)

    • Election Integrity – A tie (but we might have given Trump the edge on Coup/recent ballots issues)

    Overall, Biden did a lot better than many expected but on policies and straightforward facts, Trump won the first debate comfortably.

    CNN’s Wolf Blitzer made it clear what the goal was:

    “Clearly this is the most chaotic presidential debate that I have ever seen. That most of you have ever seen I suspect. … I wouldn’t be surprised by the way if this was the last presidential debate between the president of the United States and the former vice president of the United States but we will see.”

    *  *  *

    Full Debate Post-Mortem

    As is usual the evening began with a few hundred protesters, unsure of exactly what they were angrily protesting outside the presidential debate to “dump Trump” and explain that “Black Lives Matter”…

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    Biden (or whoever was running his Twitter feed) showed some humor right before the debate…

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    In the 2016 debates, Mexican Peso was the markets’ proxy (falling when Trump did well and rising when Hillary outperformed). It’s not clear what the current market proxy will be – gold?

    No handshake – as pre-agreed – at the start…

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    The first question was on SCOTUS.

    President Trump clarified his position: “We won the election. Elections have consequences… We won the election and therefore we have the right to choose her.”

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    Biden’s response aggressively swung to healthcare and abortion as opposed to the actual process and claimed 100 million Americans would lose healthcare because of ACB.

    Biden stumbled early on with his answers and the first gaffe hit – “how many of those who have died from COVID have survived?”

    Trump stomped right on him, over-ruling the moderator going directly at Biden’s talking points. Biden stumbled a little but held it together: “I’m not here to call out his lies, everyone knows he’s a liar.”

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    Trump blasted Biden for pandering to the left and Bernie. Biden responded:  “I am the Democratic party right now.”

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    The discussion escalated, and the SCOTUS section ended with this:

    “Will you shut up, man?” Biden says, as Trump repeatedly taunts “will you pack the court? Will you pack the court?”

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    Then the debate moved on to COVID.

    Biden began by attacking Trump for 200,000 dead and his lack of response. In a stunning moment of irony, Biden claimed Trump “should get out of your bunker, and out of the sand trap, in your golf course.”

    “You would have lost far more people,” Trump says, interrupting Biden.

    Then the discussion shifted to shutting down the economy: “He wants to shut down this country and I want to keep it open,” Trump says.

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    The next topic was the economy, and its recovery.

    “We built the greatest economy in history, we closed it down because of the China plague,” Trump said, adding that “Joe wants to shut down this Country. I want to keep it OPEN!”

    Biden pivoted to the $750 tax issue, but focused on the fact that “you can’t fix the economy until you fix the COVID crisis.”

    Moderator Wallace then shifted to ask Trump if he paid $750 in Federal taxes.

    Trump slammed Biden by asking what he had done for 47 years?

    “You’re the worst president America’s ever had, c’mon.” – Biden to Trump, to which Trump replied: “I’ve done more in 47 months — than you’ve done in 47 years.”

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    Then the discussion jumped to Biden’s tax plan but the big moment was when Trump pivoted to Hunter Biden asking about the $3.5 million from a Moscow mayor’s wife. Biden denied it, Trump slammed… “He didn’t get three and a half million dollars, Joe?”

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    Biden claimed that was “totally discredited,” except it hasn’t been. Biden: “my son did nothing wrong at Burisma.”

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    The issue of race came up next.

    Wallace: “Why should voters trust you rather than your opponent to deal with the race issues facing this country over the next four years?”

    Biden began by focusing on Charlottesville: “this is a president who has used everything as a dog whistle to try to generate racism — to try to generate racist division.”

    Trump went after Biden hard, reminding him of the busing decision, the “super predators” comments:

    “He did a crime bill, 1994, where you called them super predators,” Trump says. “You have treated the Black community about as bad as anybody in this country.”

    Biden stumbled through trying to say that there is systemic racism in America. Trump emphasized his law-and-order stance.

    The topic shifted to Critical Race Theory, and Trump did a good job explaining his position: “They were teaching people to hate our country, and I’m not going to do that, I’m not going to allow that to happen,”

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    “He’s the racist,” Biden says of Trump.

    Then the debate transitioned to Law & Order.

    Trump says “Democratic cities” are where the problems have been occurring.

    Biden: “I’m in favor of law … Law and order with justice where people are treated fairly.”

    “I’m totally opposed to defunding the police budget,” Biden says – well that’s not exactly true is it…

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    Wallace asks Trump: Are you willing to condemn white supremacists, militia groups?

    “Sure, I’m prepared to do that,” Trump says of condemning White supremacists. “Almost everything I see is from the left wing not the right wing.”

    “Proud boys — stand back and stand by — but I’ll tell you what somebody’s got to do something about Antifa and the left.”

    Biden then claimed that “Antifa is an idea, not an organization.”

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    “When a bat hits you over the head, that’s not an idea,” Trump says of antifa.

    Speechless!

    The topic of the candidates’ track records came up next.

    “There has never been an administration that has done what I’ve done,” Trump says, “and that’s with the impeachment hoax.”

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    Biden: “Under this president we’ve become weaker, sicker, poorer, more divided and more violent. When I was vice president we inherited a recession, we fixed it.”

    Trump and Biden got heated as Biden attempted to bring up Beau Biden’s heroism, but Trump pivoted to Hunter and left Biden stumbling.

    Climate Change then popped up (presumably on track records)

    “We have to do better management of our forests,” Trump says. “Every year, I get the call, ‘California’s burning. California’s burning.’”

    In a rather shocking admission, Biden said?: “No, I don’t support the Green New Deal.” Biden then says after asserting: “The Green New Deal will pay for itself as we move forward.”

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    Does Biden know that Kamala Harris was a cosponsor of the Green New Deal?

    And the last topic of the debate was Election Integrity…

    “This is going to be a fraud like you’ve never seen,” Trump says of mail-in ballots.

    Biden: “If I win, that will be accepted. If I lose that will be accepted.”

    Trump also bought up the Obama/Biden coup: “There was no transition. They came after me trying to do a coup.”

    *  *  *

    It’s over. Now the pundits weighing in.

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    Finally, we can’t leave the post-mortem without commenting on Wallace’s performance. While Trump did try his usual bullying, Wallace repeatedly steeped on Trump’s responses to Biden

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    Which gave us an idea…

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    * * *

    Time for a beer… or five!

  • Will Justice Amy Star In "The Five"?
    Will Justice Amy Star In “The Five”?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 22:25

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    By nominating Federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, Donald Trump kept his word, and more than that.

    Should she be confirmed, he will have made history.

    Even his enemies would have to concede that Trump triumphed where his Republican predecessors — even Ronald Reagan, who filled three court vacancies — fell short. Trump’s achievement — victory in the Supreme Court wars that have lasted for half a century — is a triumph that will affect the nation and the law for years, perhaps decades.

    Trump’s remaking of the Supreme Court for constitutionalism may well be the crown jewel of his presidency.

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    Consider. If Judge Barrett becomes Justice Barrett, she will join Justices Clarence Thomas, Sam Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to create a constitutionalist core of five justices, a controlling majority.

    On the other side would sit the three liberals: 82-year-old Stephen Breyer and Barack Obama appointees Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor.

    If Chief Justice John Roberts envisioned a Roberts Court where he would be the swing vote for 4-4 deadlocks, deciding every such case himself, his dream could be about to vanish.

    If Barrett is confirmed, the new court becomes “The Five,” with its youngest, newest and most charismatic member, a 48-year-old protege of Justice Antonin Scalia, its brightest and rising star.

    Consider the credentials of the jurist Trump just named.

    Barrett was summa cum laude at Notre Dame Law School, graduating first in her class. She clerked for Scalia, taught law at South Bend for 15 years and has served for three years on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals.

    She is a non-Ivy League, Middle American and a devout Catholic and mother of seven, including a special needs child and two adopted children from Haiti. Almost universally, former classmates and colleagues, liberals among them, praise her temperament, brilliance and scholarship.

    America’s court wars, in which the coming battle over Barrett’s nomination may prove decisive, go back half a century.

    It was begun in June 1968, as Richard Nixon, victorious in his party’s primaries, was moving inexorably to the GOP nomination in Miami Beach and very possibly on to the presidency of the United States.

    Chief Justice Earl Warren, an old adversary of Nixon’s from California days, was not happy with this. A report in the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Warren “is said to feel that Richard Nixon — regarded as the GOP’s likely presidential nominee — would be bound to appoint a new Chief Justice pledged to overturn recent court decisions guaranteeing constitutional rights of criminals.”

    Nixon sent the clipping to me with a note: “Buchanan: Why doesn’t (Strom) Thurmond send this to Southern papers — opinion leaders.”

    The Inquirer article proved to be on point. In collusion with Chief Justice Warren, President Lyndon Johnson had hatched a plot.

    Warren would announce his resignation as chief justice and would make acceptance contingent upon Johnson’s nominee to succeed him being confirmed. And that nominee would be Justice Abe Fortas, a court ally of Warren and longtime crony of LBJ. All three were in on it.

    When Fortas was confirmed, his vacant seat as associate justice would then be filled by Federal Judge Homer Thornberry, also an ally of Johnson’s going back to his Texas days.

    Thus would Nixon be preempted, the liberalism of the high court guaranteed, and the Warren Court succeeded for another decade by the Fortas Court.

    When LBJ named Fortas, Nixon went silent. But GOP Senators Robert Griffin, John Tower and Howard Baker moved to block Fortas’ ascent. They used an argument familiar to us today. The new president chosen in November, not the president retiring in January, should choose Warren’s replacement as chief justice.

    The attack from Senate Republicans soon zeroed in on Fortas’ social liberalism on pornography as manifest in his having voted alone on the court to approve for public viewing films depicting acts of homosexual sex.

    Fortas not only failed to win the support of the two-thirds of the Senate he needed to overcome a Republican filibuster, he also failed to win a simple majority, receiving only 45 votes for confirmation. On Oct. 1, 1968, Fortas asked Johnson to withdraw his nomination, and in the spring of 1969, he was forced to resign from the court in a financial scandal.

    Warren would have to swear in Nixon as the nation’s 37th president on Jan. 20, 1969, and then watch Nixon replace him as chief justice with Judge Warren Burger in the spring of that same year.

    Came then Nixon’s losing battles to put Southern judges Clement Haynsworth and G. Harrold Carswell on the court, Reagan’s failure to elevate Bob Bork, and the brutal but failed assaults on Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh.

    Now comes Amy Coney Barrett’s turn.

    If Senate Republicans stay united, then they can realize a victory that generations of their GOP predecessors had hoped to see.

  • American West Dominates Ranking Of Cities That Saw Fastest Growth Over Last Decade
    American West Dominates Ranking Of Cities That Saw Fastest Growth Over Last Decade

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 22:05

    The lengthy economic recovery that followed the great recession will be remembered for, among other things, the torrid gains seen in real-estate markets from NYC, to Boston to the Bay Area, and beyond. A recent survey from Construction Coverage found that home prices in some cities have skyrocketed over the ten year period, while prices in other cities slumped even further. As hot markets got hotter, as unloved urban areas continued to decay.

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    Interestingly enough, many of the cities that saw the biggest increases in prices likely wouldn’t be considered obvious. Instead, what Construction Coverage found was that many small and mid-sized cities in the Sun Belt saw surprisingly strong appreciation. The leader in the “Large City” category was Oakland, Calif. – aka “San Francisco’s Brooklyn”.

    San Bernardino topped the mid-sized city list, while Lehigh Acres Fla. took the No. 1 spot in the small cities category.

    Here’s a ranking of the 15 large cities that topped the ranking of the highest price appreciation.

    Oakland

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    Percentage change in median home price since 2010: 102.2%

    Absolute change in median home price since 2010: $400,119

    2020 median home price: $791,554

    2010 median home price: $391,435

    Median household income: $76,469

    Detroit

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    Percentage change in median home price since 2010: 101.7%

    Absolute change in median home price since 2010: $19,478

    2020 median home price: $38,638

    2010 median home price: $19,160

    Median household income: $31,283

    Phoenix

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    Percentage change in median home price since 2010: 99.0%

    Absolute change in median home price since 2010: $136,536

    2020 median home price: $274,488

    2010 median home price: $137,952

    Median household income: $57,957

    San Jose

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    Percentage change in median home price since 2010: 98.7%

    Absolute change in median home price since 2010: $494,246

    2020 median home price: $995,212

    2010 median home price: $500,966

    Median household income: $113,036

    Las Vegas

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    Percentage change in median home price since 2010: 98.3%

    Absolute change in median home price since 2010: $143,651

    2020 median home price: $289,830

    2010 median home price: $146,179

    Median household income: $53,575

    See the rest of the list in the graphic below:

  • UNC Grad Students Demand Administrators' Salaries Be "Redistributed"
    UNC Grad Students Demand Administrators’ Salaries Be “Redistributed”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 21:45

    Authored by Ben Zeisloft via Campus Reform,

    The University of North Carolina’s “Anti-Racist Graduate Worker Collective” is calling for the redistribution of administrators’ salaries for “worker relief.”

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    According to the Daily Tar Heel, a memo from the UNC System’s former interim president Bill Roper stated that chancellors in the System can issue salary reductions for certain employees, including faculty and senior administrators in an attempt to help mitigate COVID-19 losses. The Anti-Racist Graduate Worker Collective is asking that this authority be exercised to fund programs and departments low on resources.

    According to a statement from Vice Chancellor for Human Resources and Equal Opportunity and Compliance Becca Menghini to the Daily Tar Heel, the school has a desire to manage funding in order to “prioritize people, reduce operational expenses, and put focus on the teaching, research and service components of our mission.”

    “Should we determine that personnel actions are needed, we will most certainly work to distribute the effort such that those with higher earnings assume a larger share of the burden,” Menghini said.

    Since April, the group of UNC graduate students has expressed concerns over the pay disparities on campus. 

    The list of “demands” to the university noted that the “current minimum graduate worker service stipend of $15,700 per academic year does not allow students to save cash reserves for emergencies, and many graduate workers have lost second and third jobs they rely on to make ends meet.”

    The group demanded that the “University administration accept a pay cut of 10%, and that the funds freed up by this cut be redistributed directly to worker relief,” including graduate students.

    “We are tired of seeing the people at the top get more and more, while we are forced to make do on what effectively becomes less and less as cost of living increases,” the group said.

    A UNC freshman, who asked to remain anonymous, told Campus Reform that he agrees with the graduate workers’ demands. 

    However, he does not think that “they can just call for redistribution of [the administration’s] salary” but instead call for “better money management across the entire board.”

    Campus Reform reached out to the UNC System but did not receive a response in time for publication. 

  • China's Too-Big-To-Fail Real Estate Giant Averts Liquidity Crisis
    China’s Too-Big-To-Fail Real Estate Giant Averts Liquidity Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 21:25

    Last week, we reported that Beijing was suddenly on edge after a core pillar of China’s housing market – China Evergrande, the mainland’s second largest and the world’s most indebted property developer, saw its stock plunge and its bonds briefly halted following reports it was seeking government help to stave off a cash crunch caused the price of its shares and debt to tumble, and sparking a crisis of confidence among creditors who’ve lent the world’s most indebted developer more than $120 billion.

    At the heart of Evergrande’s problems was its massive debt which had hit the brick wall of China’s suddenly careening housing market, leaving the company in a liquidity crunch and locked out from capital markets, preventing it from continuing its unprecedented debt expansion at a time it was facing a brutal debt maturity schedule which sees billions in existing yuan and dollar bonds set for repayment.

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    As we concluded, “If the company remains locked out of capital markets, if it can’t restore access to its line of credit, and unless it can complete its reverse merger, it just may be over for Evergrande, and also for China’s gargantuan housing bubble.”

    Fast forward to Tuesday, when the Chinese conglomerate – on the edge of a liquidity and solvency abyss – took a critical step toward avoiding a cash crunch that had threatened to roil the nation’s $50 trillion financial system and reverberate across global markets.

    As Bloomberg reports, following a turbulent few days which saw Evergrande bonds plunge and in which banks, bondholders and senior government officials grew alarmed about Evergrande’s financial health, the world’s most indebted developer said it reached an agreement with a group of strategic investors to avoid repayments that would have soaked up most of the company’s available liquidity and potentially crippled the junk-rated company’s balance sheet.

    On Tuesday, Evergrande said that investors holding equity stakes worth about 86.3 billion yuan ($12.7 billion) agreed to keep their shares and not require the company to buy them out. That group represents the majority of the 130 billion yuan in shares held by strategic investors in its Hengda Real Estate unit, who could demand repayment in January under certain conditions. Evergrande is also in talks with the remaining investors on similar deals. The developer has finished negotiations with investors holding 15.5 billion yuan of equity interests, who are seeking further approvals. Talks with investors holding the remaining 28.2 billion yuan are ongoing.

    The deal buys crucial time for Evergrande to rein in a complex web of liabilities that some analysts have said makes the property behemoth too big to fail.

    “The agreement solves the core issue of Evergrande, which is liquidity concern,” said Raymond Cheng, a property analyst at CGS-CIMB Securities. It’s also known as “kicking the can.”

    As reported last week, as part of an agreement Evergrande struck with some of its largest investors, the company raised about 130 billion yuan ($19bn) by selling shares in its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate which it hoped to float on the Shenzhen’s stock exchange through a merger with an already listed company; Evergrande would need to repay investors if failed to win approval for a backdoor listing on the Shenzhen stock exchange by Jan. 31. 

    Evergrande owes $88 billion to banks, shadow lenders and individual investors across China and has borrowed $35 billion from bondholders around the world. More than 2 million homebuyers have given the company down payments on yet-to-be-completed properties.

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    Relief after Evergrande’s announcement late Tuesday in Hong Kong helped send the company’s dollar bonds surging, although at 80 cents on the dollar it was still trading slightly lower than before investor angst exploded to the fore on Thursday.

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    Last week’s losses came after reports that Evergrande had warned provincial officials of a liquidity squeeze, citing its obligation to return money to some strategic investors if it failed to win approval for a backdoor listing of its main real estate assets in China by Jan. 31. While Evergrande dismissed the reports as based on rumors and “fabricated” documents, the news contributed to a selloff in high-yield bonds across Asia and prompted several Chinese banks to hold emergency meetings to assess their exposure.

    While it was unclear if China’s authorities played any role in the agreement, China’s cabinet and its financial stability committee, chaired by Vice Premier Liu He, have discussed risks posed by Evergrande without making any decisions on whether to intervene, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter said before Evergrande’s announcement.

    Had the company failed to reach an agreement with investors, Chinese regulators were considering options to support the developer, such as directing state-owned companies to take stakes in Evergrande or giving the company a green light for its proposed listing of an electric-vehicle unit in China, Bloomberg added, confirming just how “systemic” the company is to Beijing and the local economy. 

    In the end, those pragmatists who were confident that China would not allow the company to fail were proven right. Indeed, speculation that authorities would bail out the company solve any liquidity problems is one reason why its shares and bonds rallied even before Tuesday’s announcement.

    The amusing irony is that even though China’s government has long threatened it would allow critical companies to fail, it boldly continues its long history of bailing out systemically important companies to maintain financial stability. While policy makers have in recent years sought to instill more market discipline and reduce moral hazard, the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has refocused their attention on stability.

  • The Fed Has Given Big Business A Huge Advantage
    The Fed Has Given Big Business A Huge Advantage

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 21:05

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    The last few months have been painful for small businesses across America. These businesses often have a difficult time getting a bank loan. Bubbling up to the surface is the recognition the Fed has played a major role in pushing inequality higher. This was highlighted when Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell admitted it’s tough for the Fed to boost lending to smaller businesses. “Trying to underwrite the credit of hundreds of thousands of very small businesses would be very difficult,” Powell said. He acknowledged that many of these small loans are really nothing more than the personal promises of people struggling to keep the doors of their business open.

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    And it’s gone!

    As the financial pain from the pandemic and government restrictions placed on businesses continue, much of the money thrown out to ease our pain has rapidly flowed into the hands of Wall Street and big business. The reality that most small businesses close in failure underlines the risk involved in loaning money to such concerns. Still, it is difficult to deny the importance of small business in the overall economy. It plays a major role in communities by both creating jobs and allowing individuals to better their lot in life.

    During a recent exchange between House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Rep. Maxine Waters of California and Powell, it became evident that Powell was not rushing to implement changes in the way things are done in an effort to aid small businesses and level the playing field. Waters suggested the Fed and Treasury Department lower the minimum size of the loans under the Main Street Lending Program to $100,000 from the current $250,000 to help a larger number of small companies that have been hurt by the pandemic. Powell even went so far as to claim there was little demand for loans below $1 million.

    A business owner struggling to pay his three workers would dispute Powell’s statement about little demand for smaller loans. Both Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have also voiced concern about the commercial real estate sector and how they both indicated it is not easy for the federal government to craft an aid program to blunt the damage growing in this part of the economy. Mnuchin said the PPP program has played a role in enabling firms to continue paying their rent so landlords can pay their mortgages. There is fear building in the area of commercial real estate that defaults will send property values into a downward spiral.  

    Sadly, the same policies that dump huge money into larger businesses because it is an easier and faster way to bolster the economy give these concerns a huge advantage over their smaller competitors. A big problem is that this often is enough to put smaller companies out of business. The damage this is doing to society is something that will be difficult to remedy. Once businesses close a series of negative events generally unfold such as buildings going empty and debts not being paid. This tends to impact the economy and communities for years.

    On Thursday Powell and Mnuchin appeared before the Senate Banking Committee and answered even more questions about the hardship the coronavirus has brought upon the economy. While they see significant support for legislation that supports jobs and extending the PPP the recognized the gap between the House and Senate negotiations. Still, they gave little doubt more money and fiscal support will be needed and they are ready to act. This includes looking at ways to expand the Main Street lending facility and make the programs more flexible. This means we will probably see more money flowing into a forgivable loan or grant programs. Both indicated the need to get more PPP money to businesses with decreased revenue saying it would be very important in the effort to save jobs.

    The recession this year due to covid-related shutdowns is bizarre in nature due to the extreme intervention of central banks and governments. We have seen many small businesses devastated at the same time personal incomes have soared. Usually, a recession is marked by a fall in incomes or consumers being tapped out and unable to spend. The massive fiscal stimulus that has been unleashed by the U.S. government has led to the biggest surge in personal income in history. In fact, government transfer payments have soared to where they constitute an unheard of 30% of all personal income.

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    Government Transfer Of Payments Has Soared

    To put this into context, the  transfer of payments has been rising for decades but the covid-19 crisis has allowed it to explode. During the 50s and 60s, it was around 7%. for a short period in the mid70s and following the 2008 financial crisis it hit the high teens. as the chart on the left indicates this is far above any intervention we have experienced in the past. This is why in this bizarre economy nobody should consider the GDP as an indicator of our economic health.  

    In short, the Fed has been subsidizing the 1% at a heightened pace for the past decade and this has both spurred inequality and given big business a huge advantage in the ability to fund its needs. It also means the government has been funding the lives of every American to a greater extent. From the talk now being bantered around, it sounds like all these people are talking about again releasing trillions of dollars into the economy. We should all be aware that the longer this goes on the more power is shifted away from the people and the small businesses that line Main Street.

    A final thought, it is all very difficult to square this with what Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday, “The U.S. recession was severe but also short and is now over.”

    Ironically, this is also the same day that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard claimed the economy could fully recovery on some metrics by the end of this year. In my opinion, more important than squaring such talk is the fact small business has taken the brunt of pain dished out while Wall Street and big business have eaten their lunch.

  • Watch Live: Trump Versus Biden, Round 1 – The Quickening
    Watch Live: Trump Versus Biden, Round 1 – The Quickening

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 20:45

    Watch live (due to begin at 2100ET):

    With only around 6% of voters reportedly undecided, one wonders just how much this matters… but hey the TV ratings will be through the roof.

    The bar for Biden to beat expectations is low (anything other than falling asleep may be perceived as a win).

    *  *  *

    ‘Who wants to live forever’ in the annals of US history?

    That is the question we hope to get closer to answering as tonight’s Presidential debate brings Joe Biden and Donald Trump the closest together since the COVID lockdowns began.

    Biden and Trump are scheduled to face off at 9pmET at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio.

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    Matt Taibbi warns that the potential for this event to spiral out of control and descend into an Ali-Frazier-Studio-Brawl situation is significantly higher than in any major party debate before, light years beyond even the Trump-Clinton situation.

    Trump and Biden are each almost guaranteed to go after one another’s children. Even if Trump somehow doesn’t call Biden a drug-addled dummy, or challenge him to remember what state he’s in, Wallace could easily bring it up and goad Trump into doubling down.

    Would we be surprised by something like, “Joe hasn’t had a hard-on in thirty years?” We would not.

    Similarly, would we be shocked if Biden’s brain malfunctioned mid-insult and said something like, “Answer that, you stupid fat un-American bastard!” No, we wouldn’t.

    Trump has a history of breathing down his opponent’s collar, while Biden has a long record of jamming his bony Creepshow-finger in the sternums of people who challenge him — hell, he does it to people who like him. He nibbled his wife’s finger onstage and is on record talking about fighting people with bicycle chains. Trump has been known to spray water bottles around at the podium and go after wives and mothers of political opponents.

    These are weird, unstable dudes, in a super-charged environment, on live TV.

    The moderator, Fox News’ Chris Wallace, chose the following six topics for the candidates to answer questions on.

    1. COVID-19:

    2. Race and Violence In Our Cities

    3. The Candidates’ Track Records

    4. The Integrity of the Election

    5. The Economy

    6. The Supreme Court

    Each topic will be tackled for 15 minutes.

    The debate is slated to go on for 90 minutes.

    As with every debate, there will be plenty of spinning and pivoting from the candidates. And what if they say something that simply isn’t true? What will Wallace do?

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    Poynter’s Tom Davis notes that Wallace has turned down all interview requests leading up to tonight’s debate, but as The New York Times’ Michael M. Grynbaum notes in his debate preview, Wallace sees himself as a facilitator, not a fact-checker.

    Before moderating a debate in 2016 between Trump and Hillary Clinton — a job he was widely praised for — Wallace said, “I do not believe it is my job to be a truth squad.”

    That’s also what debate commission co-chairman Frank Fahrenkopf said on CNN’s “Reliable Sources” on Sunday — that the moderator is not there to fact-check the candidates.

    It is the job of the networks and other news organizations to fact check. However, don’t expect to see the networks fact-checking in real time on your TV screen as the debate is ongoing. The networks will save that for their post-debate coverage.

    Remember, at the end of the day, “there can be only one!”

    And maybe – as Deutsche notes – being “the one” tonight may not be the best plan…

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    In fact, in the last 10 elections with debate reaction data stretching back to 1976, only 2 candidates who were perceived to have won the first debate went on to win the election.

    If you’re a gambling man (woman or other)…

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    And because we all deserve a laugh, here’s Babylon Bee:

    CNN Pre-Debate Poll Shows Biden Clearly Won Debate

    In a highly accurate and scientific CNN poll taken pre-debate, presidential candidate Joe Biden has had a clear win over incumbent President Donald Trump, with 98% saying Biden won the debate tonight and only 2% saying Trump won.

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    “Biden just dominated Trump with his very non-senile performance,” said pundit Jacob Ingram. “Or at least that’s what everyone knows is going to happen.”

    The poll sampled smart people who are also attractive and cool, and it’s very clear that those people all think Biden is great and have already awarded him the win in tonight’s debate against the dumb and abrasive Trump.

    “With such a clear and decisive win, there’s really no reason to even have the debate,” said Biden campaign staffer Lucas Mathis. “That would only distract from how great Biden is doing. And ruin his naps.”

    The Trump campaign has denounced the poll as “fake news,” even though the poll was made using numbers and a computer which are common instruments of science.

    It is unclear if the actual debate tonight could affect the poll results, but most experts expect that it will not. 

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    Watch live (due to begin at 2100ET):

    But, as Poynter.org’s Tom Davis asks, “Does it even matter?”

    Two things about tonight’s debate. Expect huge television numbers. And yet don’t expect it to sway many voters.

    The first Trump-Clinton debate in 2016 drew a whopping TV audience of 84 million, making it the most-watched presidential debate ever. That many people could watch tonight’s debate, although not all on TV. Streaming services and views on websites could make up a sizable portion of the audience.

    But will it make a difference among voters? The New York Times’ Michael M. Grynbaum points to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that shows that 70% of voters say the debates likely would not influence their vote. In that case, you wonder if some will not watch simply because they are stressed out or just plain tired of divisive politics.

    Meanwhile, a new NBCLX/YouGov poll shows that while Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats for their preferred candidate to say whatever is necessary to “win” a debate, 83% of those polled (3,190 Americans) prefer that candidates always tell the truth in a debate.

    I do expect a big audience tonight, even if it won’t change many minds. Why? Partly for viewers to feel validated by their candidate and partly because, hey, it’s Trump vs. Biden for the first time on TV.

    Watch Useful Idiots host Katie Halper and Matt Taibbi moderating a livestreamed debate-drinking game:

    The rules are simple:

    Drink THE FIRST TIME:

    1. Biden begins a sentence with, “Look.”

    2. Biden brings up Trump’s taxes, or “$750.”

    3. Trump mentions “Hunter.” Double-shot if he gives him a nickname, like “Crack-boy.”

    Drink EVERY TIME:

    1. Biden mentions “Obama” or the “Obama-Biden administration.”

    2. Biden says, “United States of America.”

    3. Trump calls Biden a radical leftist. Double if he references the “Bernie-Biden left” or some iteration thereof.

    4. Trump mocks Biden for being mentally impaired or lost without a teleprompter.

    5. Biden gives up his time before it’s up, a.k.a. the “Check, please!” rule.

    6. Biden invokes, “C’mon, Man,” “Malarkey,” “Scranton,” “Existential threat,” “Soul of the Nation,” or “I’m the guy that…”

    7. Trump brings up “ballots,” “fake news,” “Ilhan Omar,” “career politician,” “Get Trump,” “hoax,” “Sleepy,” or the awesomeness of police.

    8. Biden brings up the loss of any of his family members. Double if Trump steers this moment in an inappropriate direction.

    9. Trump tells a lie; Biden says something that doesn’t make sense.

    10. The men accuse each other of being racist. Drink twice if you believe the charge.

    11. Martyr shots: Biden invokes the name of a nonwhite police victim like Breonna Taylor or George Floyd, or Trump invokes the name of an embattled statue subject like Jefferson, Lincoln, or Teddy Roosevelt.

    12. “Amy Coney Barrett.” Bonus if Biden botches the name, e.g. “Amy Hairy Conehead.”

    You may finish your remaining alcohol if there is a fight. The men grabbing each other by the neck, pulling ties or underwear bands, spitting, ball-kicking, or any other physical provocation counts.

  • NYC Hammered By 40% Bankruptcy Surge, Braces For Next Wave 
    NYC Hammered By 40% Bankruptcy Surge, Braces For Next Wave 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 20:25

    While Wall Street panic buys stocks again, on hopes Washington can pass the next round of much-needed economic stimulus, the broader commercial real estate market continues to implode and nowhere more so than the epicenter in New York City, where nearly 6,000 business closures, has resulted in a 40% eruption in bankruptcy filings across business districts of all five boroughs this year, reported Bloomberg. 

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    Al Togut, a bankruptcy lawyer who has handled insolvencies for small firms to mega-corporations, said, “by late fall, there will be an avalanche of bankruptcies … When the cold weather comes, that’s when we’ll start to see a surge in bankruptcies in New York City.”

    The coming wave of business closings, as explained in “Old Man Winter To Plunge Restaurants Into Further Chaos,” is set to crush eateries and other small businesses in NYC ahead of the holiday season. 

    “It’s a crisis, and we need to act—our economy can’t recover without saving small businesses,” said NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, a candidate in next year’s mayoral election.

    “When they close, we don’t just lose our beloved Main Street businesses. We lose jobs, tax revenue and the economic backbone of our city,” Stringer said. 

    The Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit membership organization of NYC’s top businesses, warned the virus pandemic could permanently close a third of the 230,000 businesses across all five boroughs. 

    Bankruptcy filings in the region have skyrocketed since the middle of March, when the state of New York reported its first deaths from Covid-19 and Governor Andrew Cuomo closed all nonessential businesses. There were 610 filings in the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York from March 16 to Sept. 27, according to court records. That’s a 40 percent jump from the same period in 2019 and the most by far for any year since the financial crisis. The districts include some nearby counties.

    Almost 6,000 New York City businesses closed from March 1 to Sept. 11, according to Yelp, the website of user reviews. Over 4,000 of those closed permanently.

    The carnage has been demoralizing after decades in which the city fought back from the brink of bankruptcy, the scourges of crack cocaine and violent crime, terrorist attacks and recession. The pandemic hit as the city had achieved record high employment and low crime. – Bloomberg

    The effects of the pandemic are still being felt in late September, as only 15% of NYC’s 1.2 million office workers had returned, according to the Partnership for New York City. None of this suggests NYC’s recovery will be “V” shaped. 

    “Retail and real estate will continue to decline in New York until you can reignite the office traffic,” warned Joseph Malfitano, who advised Brooks Brothers and the parent company of Ann Taylor in their bankruptcies earlier this year. 

    Vin McCann, a restaurant consultant, said once temperatures dip in the city, the next wave of restaurant closures will be seen. 

    “Once you hit below 60 degrees… I would bet you that between 25 and 50 percent of restaurants in New York City will not come back,” said McCann. 

    The city’s Department of Small Business Services received about 35,000 requests from businesses since June and has allocated nearly 4,000 grants, totaling about $80 million, to business owners struggling to survive the virus-induced economic downturn. 

    “A third of our small businesses could be closed if we don’t have a strong recovery,” said Jonnel Doris, the department’s commissioner. “The fate of small businesses will determine the fate of the city.”

    In early September, NYC restaurants banded together and sued the state for $2 billion in damages and allege that the government is violating the constitutional rights of the owners of more than 150,000 NYC restaurants. 

    This is particularly troubling, considering the spillover of closures is beginning to pressure the commercial real estate market in the city. 

  • 911 System Goes Down Across The Country: Was This A Test?
    911 System Goes Down Across The Country: Was This A Test?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 20:05

    Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

    As we inch closer and closer to election day and the potential chaos that will ensue, more and more signs of a destabilization of American society that will have reverberations across the world are coming into view. Pieces of the puzzle that have been put together by writers such as myself, Brandon Turbeville, Whitney Webb, Alan Watt and many others are now seen coming together in real life. We are just a month away from one of the most simulated events in years, the 2020 election.

    Both I and Whitney Webb (her articles are a MUST READ) have been writing about the coming chaos that is clearly slated to take place in November if Deep State elements have their way.

    But there are more than simple “war games” and simulations taking place right now. What possibly amounts to real-world simulations, attributed to systems outages, have recently developed across the country.

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    911 down across the country

    One such “real world simulation,” (aka test run) was reported in the U.S. Sun on September 28, 2020 in an article entitled, “911 Emergency: 911 Lines Go Down Across The US Sparking Panic As Callers Can’t Get Through To Emergency Services,” where Catherina Gioina reported,

    POLICE departments across the country Monday night reported their 911 systems nonoperational – and it’s reportedly due to a Microsoft Office 360 outage.

    “As of 5 p.m., City phones and emails are experiencing intermittent outages related to a larger Microsoft 365 outage,” the City of Redmond, Washington tweeted. “We are hoping the issue is resolved shortly. Sorry for any inconvenience.”

    Panic spread across the nation’s police departments as the 911 systems were rendered useless – and left police departments turning to social media to tell residents there were other ways to contact emergency services.

    “ATTENTION: The 911 lines are not operational nationwide. This is for phone calls and text messaging,” tweeted the Minneapolis Police Department. “If you need police, fire or emergency medical assistance in Minneapolis, please call” a local number.

    “We will advise when this issue is fixed,” it ended.

    Similar problems continued for other police departments in the state of Minnesota.

    The Minnetonka Police Department tweeted “911 lines are out nationwide. In Minnetonka and Hennepin county, you will need to call” another local number.

    Minnesota’s Crystal Police Department instead urged residents to call their local fire station for help instead.

    “911 is currently out in Crystal. If you have an emergency please go a fire department,” it tweeted. “They will be staffed with crews. More to follow when info becomes available.”

    The issue was likewise felt in Delaware, where the Delaware State Police asked people to call a local number.

    “Delaware State Police Dispatch Centers are currently experiencing a state wide interruption in service,” the dispatch center said in a statement. “Anyone attempting to call 911 either by cellphone or landline will experience a busy signal.”

    “At this time the issue is being addressed and it is unknown how long the 911 phone service will be unavailable,” the statement continued. “If you need to report an emergency, you are encouraged to text 911 and type your emergency in the message field.”

    A number of police departments in Arizona were running into issues with 911 as well.

    “POLICE ALERT: 911 lines are down statewide. For emergencies, please call Prescott Valley Police Dispatch at,” the Prescott Valley Police Department tweeted “until further notice.”

    Also in Arizona, the Tucson Police Department asked residents to contact a local number as well.

    “911 services are down in the City of Tucson. If you need to make an emergency call, dial,” the department tweeted. “We will let you know when 911 is back online.”

    Luckily, the Oro Valley Police Department, also in Arizona, said they had solved the issue.

    “It’s fixed! 911 is back up for all agencies! We did take this opportunity to test the “Text to 911″ and that did continue to work through this outage,” the department tweeted. “So keep that in mind, it is another way to contact police services.”

    Microsoft Office 360’s outage crashed across the nation Monday evening, forcing the more than 500,000 businesses that use the service to make do while the tech giant addresses the issue.

    A Microsoft spokesperson told The Sun: “We’re working to resolve a service interruption impacting a subset of customers performing authentication operations. Visit the Azure Status page for updates.”

    CNN, The Hill, and NBC New York among many other outlets reported on the outages also.

    Was this an accident or a test?

    This outage has many now wondering whether or not someone is preparing for a nationwide emergency services outage in the wake of election chaos. Others are wondering if the United States will experience a massive cyberattack – predictably to be blamed on Russia, China, or Iran – either in the lead up to, during, or shortly after the 2020 elections.

    The fact that the disruption in communications is being attributed to a Microsoft outage is telling also. For those who may not have had the chance to read Whitney Webb’s article, “How Government and Media Are Prepping America for a Failed 2020 Election,” Webb has a section titled “Conflict of interest-ridden Microsoft “defends democracy” where she writes of Microsoft’s actual danger to democracy. She writes,

    Last year saw the tech behemoth Microsoft join the effort to blame foreign state actors, specifically Iran, for cyberattacks against the U.S. This helped to bolster assertions that had largely originated with a handful of U.S. intelligence officials and hawkish, neoconservative-aligned think tanks as media reports on Microsoft’s related claims treated the company as an independent private sector observer.

    Yet, as MintPress investigations have revealed, Microsoft has clear conflicts of interest with respect to election interference. Its “Defending Democracy” program has spawned tools like “NewsGuard” and “ElectionGuard” that it claims will help protect U.S. democracy, but — upon closer examination — instead have the opposite effect.

    Last January, MintPress exposed NewsGuard’s neoconservative backers and how special interest groups were backing the program in an effort to censor independent journalism under the guise of the fight against “fake news.” Subsequent investigations revealed the risk that Microsoft’s ElectionGuard poses to U.S. voting machines, which it claims to make more secure and how the platform was developed by companies closely tied to the Pentagon’s infamous research branch DARPA and Israeli military intelligence Unit 8200.

    ElecionGuard software has since been adopted by numerous voting machine manufacturers and is slated to be used in some Democratic Primary votes. Notably, the push for the adoption of ElectionGuard software has been spearheaded by the recently created Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is the federal agency tasked with overseeing election security and is headed by Christopher Krebs, a former high level Microsoft executive.

    In recent months, Microsoft has also been at the center of claims that Iran attempted to hack U.S. presidential campaigns ahead of 2020 as well as claims that Iran plans to target the U.S. power grid and other critical infrastructure with cyberattacks.

    Last October, Microsoft penned a blog post discussing a “threat group” it named Phosphorus that they “believe originates from Iran and is linked to the Iranian government.” The post went on to claim that Phosphorus attempted to target a U.S. presidential campaign, which later media reports claimed was President Trump’s re-election campaign. Microsoft concluded that the attempt was “not technically sophisticated” and ultimately unsuccessful, but felt compelled to disclose it and link it to Iran’s government.

    Though it provided no evidence for the hack or its reasons for “believing” that the attack originated from Iran, media reports treated Microsoft’s declaration as proof that Iran had begun actively meddling in the 2020 election. Headlines such as “Iranian Hackers Target Trump Campaign as 2020 Threats Mount,” “Iran-linked Hackers Target Trump 2020 Campaign, Microsoft says”, “Microsoft: Iran government-linked hacker targeted 2020 presidential campaign” and “Microsoft Says Iranians Tried To Hack U.S. Presidential Campaign,” were blasted across the front pages of American media. None of the reports scrutinized Microsoft’s claims or noted the clear conflict of interest Microsoft had in making such claims due to its efforts to see its own ElectionGuard Software adopted nationwide.

    Media reports also left out the fact that Microsoft is a major government contractor for the U.S. intelligence community and the Pentagon. Notably, the Trump campaign, which Microsoft said was the target of this attack, was later identified as the only major presidential campaign using Microsoft’s “AccountGuard” software, part of its dubious “Defending Democracy” program that also spawned NewsGuard and ElectionGuard. AccountGuard claims to protect campaign-linked emails and data from hackers.

    Microsoft surfaced not long after, again claiming that Iran was maliciously targeting the United States’ civilian infrastructure. This subsequent claim was first published by Wired and later covered by other outlets. Those reports cite a single person, Microsoft security researcher Ned Moran, who claimed that an Iran-backed hacking group called APT33 was targeting the U.S. “physical control systems used in electric utilities, manufacturing, and oil refineries.”

    “They’re trying to deliver messages to their adversaries and trying to compel and change their adversaries’ behavior,” Moran told Wired. Moran also stated that “Microsoft hasn’t seen direct evidence of APT33 carrying out a disruptive cyberattack rather than mere espionage or reconnaissance, it’s seen incidents where the group has at least laid the groundwork for those attacks.”

    The truth is that the nationwide outage could indeed be a result of a failure of Microsoft system and the timing could indeed have been a coincidence. Given the fact that there have been so many simulations of the events of 2020 and, particularly the 2020 elections, however, it is well worth paying attention to. It is also dangerous to assume anything so critically important as nationwide emergency services momentarily disappearing is a coincidence, especially this year.

    You may be completely on your own in the event of an emergency.

    Writers on this website have assured you frequently that in the event of a crisis, you may find yourself completely on your own. Selco and Jose have both shared stories confirming this in their own writings.  Just recently, a woman in Kenosha, Wisconsin came to the same conclusion during the riots there – nobody was coming to help.

    If things go sideways, you’d better be prepared to handle the situation on your own because help may not be on the way.

  • You Can Now Have A Tiny Home Office 3D-Printed In 24 Hours 
    You Can Now Have A Tiny Home Office 3D-Printed In 24 Hours 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 19:45

    As the new workplace normal moves rapidly towards remote work, demand for smaller, smart satellite workplaces has increased. Not too long ago, we noted how some Americans were shelling out as much as $30,000 for tiny home offices in their backyards. 

    Now, a California-based startup, called Might Buildings, is 3D printing tiny offices (about a 350 square foot structure) in just 24-hours, reported Spectrum News 1 Los Angeles.

    While we showed other companies, such as Colorado-based Studio Shed, using traditional labor and materials, Might Buildings uses synthetic stone 3D printed under UV light to make complex shapes and structures. 

    “We developed a 3D printing technology that allows us to build and manufacture buildings faster and more efficiently than traditional construction,” said Natalia Dobrynina, head of sales for Mighty Buildings. 

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    Might Buildings says the building plans are pre-approved for any county in California. 

    “Depending on your access to your site, we could use a crane to pick it up and drop it into your backyard,” Dobrynina said.

    Watch Might Buildings 3D-Print Tiny Office 

    And if it is not a tiny home office people are seeking, then there’s the ability to transform it into a tiny home and generate rental income. 

  • Vietnam Cashes In On China Exodus
    Vietnam Cashes In On China Exodus

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 19:25

    By Tim Daiss of Asia Times Financial,

    As the Sino-American trade war pushes on with seemingly no end in sight, US companies continue to move their operations away from China. This offshore pivot has taken on renewed impetus due to the Covid-19 pandemic, intersecting with geopolitical fallout between Washington and Beijing, and magnified by the US presidential election only six weeks away.

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    Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Trump.

    Other countries are also moving operations out of China, including long-time US ally Japan. In July, Tokyo earmarked 220 billion yen ($2.2bn) as part of a record economic stimulus package to relocate its companies from China back to Japan and 23.5bn yen to move production to other countries, predominately Southeast Asia. To date, around 90 Japanese firms have joined the exodus from China, with more likely to follow, according to the Japan External Trade Organization.

    A report in June by Gartner, a business and logistics advisory group, found that 33% of global supply leaders have moved, or intend to move, their supply chain operations out of China by 2023. According to Kamala Raman, a senior Gartner supply chain analyst, the development began more than two years ago when the onset of the trade war made supply chain leaders aware of the weaknesses of their globalised supply chains and also made them question the logic of heavily outsourced, concentrated and interdependent networks.

    Countries in the Asia-Pacific region that have already benefited from this pivot away from China include Malaysia, India, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. However, Vietnam appears to be benefiting the most due to a number of factors.

    Despite their obvious political and ideological differences and history as antagonists during the Vietnam War, bi-lateral relations between Washington and Hanoi are at an all-time high. While much of those improved relations can be attributed to globalisation, a common adversary found in an increasingly assertive China has further solidified those ties.

    Washington and Hanoi are also forging closer military cooperation in an effort to push back against Beijing’s hegemonic pursuits in the South China Sea, which have escalated since Xi Jinping became president of China nearly eight years ago.

    Vietnam’s opportunity

    Vietnam’s development over the past three decades has been momentous. Economic and political reforms put in motion in 1986 have spurred rapid economic growth, transforming what had been one of the world’s poorest nations into a lower middle-income country on the move.

    To its credit, Vietnam offers friendly foreign direct investment (FDI) policies for companies that either want to move or supplement their China production strategy, as well as a strategic location, and a stable political and business environment.

    Khanh Cong Le, a Ho Chi Minh City-based wind power project engineer and consultant, told ATF that Vietnam also possesses a geographical advantage over many of its competitors in the region.

    “Clearly, with Vietnam bordering China to the north, it’s a condition that makes it easier to connect with supporting industry away from China,” Khahn said.

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    “Vietnam has a long coastline [around 3,260km] and a convenient gateway to the South China Sea to connect with markets in Pacific countries. Vietnam is also the axis connecting northeast Asia with southeast Asian countries,” he said.

    Vietnam also offers a young and growing workforce, including thousands eager for new employment opportunities. More than two-thirds of Vietnam’s population is younger than 35, creating favourable demographics to fuel its rise.

    However, what should be one of Vietnam’s greatest strengths, could also be one of its toughest challenges in attracting more US manufacturers, namely a lack of skilled workers and low education levels.

    According to global recruitment firm Manpower, only 12% of Vietnam’s approximate 57.5 million workforce can be identified as highly skilled. The majority of the country’s labour still lives in rural areas and works in the agricultural sector.  

    Vietnam’s workforce numbers, however, also limits its ability to attract more manufacturers looking to move out of China, whose workers number more than 770 million, according to World Bank data.

    Consequently, opportunities from offshoring away from China will continually be shared by not only the 10 countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), whose total population equals 650 million, but also India, whose labour force totals around 500 million.

    Vietnam also suffers from a lack of infrastructure, while poorly built and aging roads along with congested ports, increase the time to transport goods, raises costs and reduces overall efficiency and competitiveness.

    “Weak infrastructure and high transport costs have prevented Vietnamese firms from fully tapping into the logistics sector’s potential,” Tran Thanh Hai, deputy director of Vietnam’s Import-Export Department, said recently.

    He added that the logistics sector in Vietnam has seen rapid development in recent years with yearly growth rates of 13% to 15%.  However, “poor roadway and aviation infrastructure has been one of biggest challenges for the sector despite improvements in recent years,” he said.

    Trade imbalance sticking points

    Vietnam’s trade imbalance with the US has also remained a sticking point, particularly during the Trump administration. The country’s trade with the US continued an upward trajectory for the January to July period to $46.4bn, a 10.8% increase from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data.

    Conversely, US exports to Vietnam decreased at a 1.8% rate from January through July compared with the same period last year. The US trade deficit with Vietnam is now nearly $40bn.

    As such, and due to a highly positive current account balance and because the country’s central bank has been active in terms of net foreign exchange purchases, Vietnam remains at risk of being labeled a currency manipulator by the US.

    To help offset the growing trade deficit, policy makers have been courting US energy companies not only keen on importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet Vietnam’s looming domestic gas supply crunch, but also attracting much needed FDI in its growing gas-to-power sector, particularly in the Mekong Delta in the south.

    Over the past several weeks, a growing number of US companies have stoked new interest in Vietnam’s gas and power sector after several months of weak activity, mostly due to the coronavirus. They are racing to be included in Vietnam’s most recent National Power Development Plan, which is expected to be submitted to prime minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc by October for approval.

  • Which Jobs Have Been Hardest Hit By The Pandemic
    Which Jobs Have Been Hardest Hit By The Pandemic

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 09/29/2020 – 19:05

    Heading into Friday’s payrolls report, the labor market has been enjoying a strong tailing, with the unemployment rate falling to a lower-than-expected 8.4% in August, and consensus is looking for a further decline to 8.2 % in September. In terms of non-farm payrolls, the consensus is also looking for continued job growth of +865k, but as Jim Reid cautions, “it’s worth bearing in mind that having lost over -22MM jobs in March and April, even this figure would mean that just over half of them have been recovered, still leaving nonfarm payrolls over 10MM below their peak back in February.”

    Still, considering the continued gridlock over a new fiscal stimulus, if the consensus forecast of 850k NFP proves correct, it will certainly be a continuation of upward momentum with more than 51% of recent job losses recovered through September, leaving employment at 93% of February levels.

    That said, there are underlying challenges as BofA writes in report published late last week looking at who is falling behind even as the labor market recovery continues. AS BofA economist Alexander Lin writes, “the pandemic affected the economy unevenly, impacting the lower-income population more than the upper-income cohorts. This has remained true in the recovery as well.”

    One can see the differences using the industry level data in the nonfarm payroll figures. Leisure & hospitality remains deep in the red and is the lowest paid industry (Chart 3). There are some higher paid industries like mining & logging and information services that remain below 90% of pre-pandemic levels, but they account for much smaller shares of employment.

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    Lin then highlights that employment by education reveals an even starker gap between the high skilled and low skilled. The level of employed with a bachelor’s degree or more saw a peak-to-trough decline of around 6% but has basically fully recovered from those losses through August. On the other end of the spectrum, those with less than a HS diploma have only recovered to 81% of pre-pandemic levels.

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    Meanwhile, the dramatic changes to the labor composition have distorted the standard wage metrics, with average hourly earnings last running at 4.7% yoy, a number which analysts expect to accelerate to 4.8% in September. The CPS micro data provide additional perspective, allowing economists to track workers from month to month and their wages over time. It also reveals that the median wage of those that remained employed throughout the pandemic increased, as did the median wage of those that were rehired, which may soon become a challenge to the Fed which is confident wages growth will remain subdued until at least 2023 per its latest Average Inflation Targeting regime.

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    At the same time the distribution showed similar results as the 25th and 75th percentiles also increased. This provides further evidence of low-income workers falling behind.

    Unfortunately, whereas the BLS calculation of wage growth is highly skewed due to a slower rebound in hours worked, the reality is that wage pressures are likely extremely subdued according to BofA which cites a recent PEW survey (Parker et al, 24 Sep 2020) released this week which found that 32% of adults said they or someone in their household had to take a pay cut due to reduced hours or demand from the pandemic. This stat was also skewed more negatively by income, as 37% of low-income  households experienced pay cuts versus 26% of upper-income households.

    Long-term problems emerging

    Wages aside, with the pandemic now in its seventh month and labor market slack still elevated, many of the unemployed are transitioning into the “long-term unemployed cohort,” which covers those without a job for more than 26 weeks. To wit, starting in July, the level of unemployed 15-26 weeks spiked to 6.5 million, which is nearly double the previous record high of 3.5 million. The level of unemployed 27 weeks & over may soon follow.

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    Of course, the longer one is unemployed, the lower the chances they can find another job. As BofA notes, using labor flows, the BLS calculates the probability of reemployment by duration of unemployment. The probability drops from 27% for 5-14 weeks to 20% for 15-26 weeks

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    It drops further to 18% for those unemployed for 26-52 weeks, with Lin warning that “longer spells of unemployment also lead to lower reemployment wages as skills and employee bargaining power erode.”

    The bottom line is that with the lower-income cohort already falling behind, the odds clearly become more stacked against them over time. The end result is therefore even greater income disparity, hardly optimal for an economy where the Fed’s constant manipulation of market has already led to a historic divergence in wealth between the top 1% – which just hit a record 200 year of average income vs “only” 60 in 1978 – and the bottom 50%, whose income has not changed one bit in over 40 years.

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