May 31

Today’s News 31st May 2020

  • As The World Burns…
    As The World Burns…

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

    Personal safety & security are quickly becoming more important in this era of growing social rage

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    Decades of unfairness are now boiling over in the United States in the form of protests, riots, burning buildings and violence.

    Minneapolis is on fire – literally – and the unrest has spread to numerous other major cities.

    Last year (2019) The Yellow Vest protesters in France dealt with enormous amount of police violence and intimidation as they put life and limb on the line to try and wrest better economic and living conditions for themselves.

    The people of Hong Kong are back out in force again now that the Coronavirus threat has abated, seeking greater autonomy and control over their own lives. Last year (2019) Chileans also protested, seeking better wages and living conditions.

    While the specific demands of each of these movements are unique, they all share common causes.

    Our analysis at Peak Prosperity is this: the days of constant exponential growth on a finite planet are drawing to a close. All of the systems that govern the sharing of resources among humans – political, economic and especially financial – are designed to concentrate, not share, wealth.

    Taken together, we have an economic pie that is no longer growing but is subject to a set of laws and financial predation that guarantee the wealthy get more than their fair share of what remains.

    This leads to increasingly visible, palpable unfairness.

    Primates hate that:

    In today’s world, it’s grapes for the elites and cucumbers for the rest of us (if we’re even that lucky).

    That’s been the model for a long time, but lately it’s been both accelerating and exposed for all to see.

    Team Elite™ is busy gorging on grapes. It has granted itself $trillions of freshly printed dollars from the US Federal Reserve in order to prop up ‘their fair share of things’ like bonds, stocks, and derivatives.

    That leads to these sorts of jarring headline juxtapositions:

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    (Source and source)

    Without any question whatsoever, the Federal Reserve has been printing up money like crazy and stuffing it into every crevice of the US financial markets in a bid to…well, drive up financial asset prices.

    They’ve been extremely tone deaf the entire way while pretending that their aim isn’t to make the rich richer, or deliver fatter profits to banks. Of course, both of those things are indeed happening as a direct result of the Fed’s policies and anybody with eyes can see that — yet the media refuses to acknowledge this.

    Really, it’s extremely easy to identify. Here’s what ‘grapes for the wealthy!’ looks like — see that $3 trillion spike since April?

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    All of that printing leads to some stocks now being at their priciest ratio to earnings ever:

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    That means that those holding them are being rewarded like never before. And don’t forget that the richest 10% of Americans own over 84% of all stocks

    We also see the same price-goosing with bonds. Corporate bonds are now once again approaching historically low yields which means, in the see-saw language of bonds, they are almost as pricey as they’ve ever been. In history:

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    Who received the benefits of that gigantic cluster of grapes that the Fed has lavished upon the bond markets?

    Well, the owners of all those bonds of course, and the major corporations now able to borrow at rock bottom costs even as small and medium sized enterprises are being wiped out.

    As I often say, the Fed doesn’t actually create wealth, it redistributes wealth.  While doing that it is both directly and indirectly picking winners and losers.

    The above chart of corporate bond yields says the Fed is picking large corporations and the wealthy elite  over small companies and Main Street folks.

    Of course, there are no grapes quite as sweet as the ‘special interest’ varietals that are served to only the wealthiest of real estate investors:

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    The only thing that could make this worse would be for some White House official to condescendingly insult all us regular people by referring to us in non-human terms.

    Oops:

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    (Source)

    I have dozens more such examples. But I trust you get the point: the vast unfairness of the US system is now exposed for all to see. And that inequity has become even more predatory in our hour of need during the Covid-19 pandemic. Which is why social frustration and angst are now in the process of boiling over.

    The reason why is as old as civilization itself, showing up ever since the first group of humans organized themselves into a cultural pyramid:

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    People often ask me why I shake my angry monkey-fist at the Federal Reserve so often. It’s because of the above quote. I’m the sort that prefers to avoid unnecessary pain and suffering. The Federal Reserve seems to be institutionally ignorant of the above fatal ailment.

    What the Fed is doing is wholly unnecessary and manifestly unfair. It will lead to tears yet, regrettably, it is completely avoidable. Grapes for Wall Street, and cucumbers (or worse) for everyone else. It’s just how they’re wired. They literally cannot help themselves,. So things are certain to get worse before they get better.

    It All Boils Over

    The institutional failures of the Federal Reserve aside, there are also the obvious failures of management (I can’t bring myself to call them ‘leadership’ anymore) at our major health institutions, politicians who are far quicker to the rescue of major corporations than constituents, politicized and even falsified ‘science’ coming from formerly respected institutions, the list goes on and on.

    Every one of these breaches of public trust undermines our collective safety and security. Beyond some incalculable level the foundation gives way.

    The lowest level of management in this story are the police. For decades many police departments have been heavily militarized and trained often by Israelis who’ve done a remarkable job embedding the mindset of occupying forces into US policing.

    Toss in some unresolved racial biases and animosity, civil asset forfeiture, no-knock raids for petty reasons that routinely result in innocent lives being violently taken, and you’ve got a tinder pile waiting for a spark.

    George Floyd was that spark. A particularly callous officer with a long string of unpunished claims of excessive force and violence lodged against him, knelt on George’s neck until he was dead while 3 other officers stood by and casually watched.  Against the backdrop outlined above, this was one flagrant abuse too many.

    Editorially, the person now being vetted as a possible VP for the Biden campaign, Amy Klobuchar was the prosecutor in Minneapolis for many years who could have delivered justice to the lower classes. Let’s check her record:

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    Sadly, this is a record that can be found in hundreds of other cities. It’s neither an uncommon nor a defensible record. As a reminder, in the aftermath of the Michael Brown killing and riots in Ferguson MO (2014) the justice department came in and discovered that in a city of 20,000 mostly poor people there were 16,000 outstanding arrest warrants.  Think about that for a second.

    Many for infractions like ‘impeding pedestrian flow’ (a.k.a. standing on the sidewalk). The humans were little more that ATM livestock for the police and court machinery to exploit.

    And so, with the killing of George Floyd, Minneapolis exploded.

    There’s More Unrest On The Way. Get Prepared.

    Welcome everyone to these turbulent times.

    We all want to live in a just, fair, and safe world. Some people are born into peaceful times. Others aren’t so lucky. History goes through its turnings.

    Well, here we are, smack in the middle of a whopper of a fourth turning. So let’s make the most of it.

    I take the safety and security of myself and the people around me very seriously. Because it’s my responsibility I train, and I plan, and I think things through.

    My home is in a town I judge to be very safe, and I’m not the fearful sort, so I really have to push myself to prioritize the other steps. Which I am doing because it has to be done.

    The calm days are over. There’s a new future coming, one that promises to be a lot more interesting as the old Chinese saying goes.

    I wish I believed that the worst of the social unrest was behind us. I don’t. Given the actions of the Fed and Plutarch’s quote, and the total lack of any pushback from the media on these matters, I am anticipating grapes for the elites and worse-than-cucumbers for everyone else for many years to come.

    Which means it’s time for you to more seriously consider your approach to personal security, especially if you live in or near a city. I certainly am.

    As a true mark of the turning, a growing number of my friends who would never have considered owning a gun before are now thinking about doing so. All sorts of formerly ‘hard’ decisions suddenly become up for grabs when folks start feeling more physically vulnerable.

    But personal security is far more than ‘owning a gun.’ It’s a mindset as well as a behavior set. And above all, it’s about avoiding trouble in the first place.

    It includes taking sensible steps to protect your home from being an easy target for crime. It means having a plan and well-practiced skills in place to keep yourself and your loved ones safe from violence. It means aligning with neighbors to watch each others’ backs. It means practicing with whatever tools or systems you adopt so that they are second nature to you if you ever have to use them.

    For those without extensive experience and training (which I assume is just about everyone reading this), the best presentation I’ve ever seen covering the practical essentials you need to know to maximize your odds of staying safe is this video from Peak Prosperity member Tom C., a 19-year veteran inner city police sergeant, given at our most recent annual seminar:

    Here’s a brief 3-minute clip from it in which Tom is fielding Q&A on the audience’s top concerns:

    Tom’s full seminar presentation is 48 minutes long and addresses key safety & security issues including how to reduce your threat risk profile, situational awareness, what to do (both mindset and actions) if in danger, how to create “layers” of defenses, as well as good home security options. Peak Prosperity’s premium members can watch it in full here.

    Not a premium member yet? Enroll now to get access to the video.

  • The Road To Recovery: Which Economies Are Reopening?
    The Road To Recovery: Which Economies Are Reopening?

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 23:00

    COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt – but, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh details below, after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better.

    Today’s chart measures the extent to which 41 major economies are reopening, by plotting two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate:

    1. Mobility Index
      This refers to the change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline.

    2. COVID-19 Recovery Rate
      The number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases.

    Data for the first measure comes from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which relies on aggregated, anonymous location history data from individuals. Note that China does not show up in the graphic as the government bans Google services.

    COVID-19 recovery rates rely on values from CoronaTracker, using aggregated information from multiple global and governmental databases such as WHO and CDC.

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    Reopening Economies, One Step at a Time

    In general, the higher the mobility rate, the more economic activity this signifies. In most cases, mobility rate also correlates with a higher rate of recovered people in the population.

    Here’s how these countries fare based on the above metrics.

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    Mobility data as of May 21, 2020 (Latest available). COVID-19 case data as of May 29, 2020.

    In the main scatterplot visualization, we’ve taken things a step further, assigning these countries into four distinct quadrants:

    1. High Mobility, High Recovery

    High recovery rates are resulting in lifted restrictions for countries in this quadrant, and people are steadily returning to work.

    New Zealand has earned praise for its early and effective pandemic response, allowing it to curtail the total number of cases. This has resulted in a 98% recovery rate, the highest of all countries. After almost 50 days of lockdown, the government is recommending a flexible four-day work week to boost the economy back up.

    2. High Mobility, Low Recovery

    Despite low COVID-19 related recoveries, mobility rates of countries in this quadrant remain higher than average. Some countries have loosened lockdown measures, while others did not have strict measures in place to begin with.

    Brazil is an interesting case study to consider here. After deferring lockdown decisions to state and local levels, the country is now averaging the highest number of daily cases out of any country. On May 28th, for example, the country had 24,151 new cases and 1,067 new deaths.

    3. Low Mobility, High Recovery

    Countries in this quadrant are playing it safe, and holding off on reopening their economies until the population has fully recovered.

    Italy, the once-epicenter for the crisis in Europe is understandably wary of cases rising back up to critical levels. As a result, it has opted to keep its activity to a minimum to try and boost the 65% recovery rate, even as it slowly emerges from over 10 weeks of lockdown.

    4. Low Mobility, Low Recovery

    Last but not least, people in these countries are cautiously remaining indoors as their governments continue to work on crisis response.

    With a low 0.05% recovery rate, the United Kingdom has no immediate plans to reopen. A two-week lag time in reporting discharged patients from NHS services may also be contributing to this low number. Although new cases are leveling off, the country has the highest coronavirus-caused death toll across Europe.

    The U.S. also sits in this quadrant with over 1.7 million cases and counting. Recently, some states have opted to ease restrictions on social and business activity, which could potentially result in case numbers climbing back up.

    Over in Sweden, a controversial herd immunity strategy meant that the country continued business as usual amid the rest of Europe’s heightened regulations. Sweden’s COVID-19 recovery rate sits at only 13.9%, and the country’s -93% mobility rate implies that people have been taking their own precautions.

    COVID-19’s Impact on the Future

    It’s important to note that a “second wave” of new cases could upend plans to reopen economies. As countries reckon with these competing risks of health and economic activity, there is no clear answer around the right path to take.

    COVID-19 is a catalyst for an entirely different future, but interestingly, it’s one that has been in the works for a while.

    Without being melodramatic, COVID-19 is like the last nail in the coffin of globalization…The 2008-2009 crisis gave globalization a big hit, as did Brexit, as did the U.S.-China trade war, but COVID is taking it to a new level.

    – Carmen Reinhart, incoming Chief Economist for the World Bank

    Will there be any chance of returning to “normal” as we know it?

  • The Mysterious Missing Link – Anti-Malaria Drug & Zinc
    The Mysterious Missing Link – Anti-Malaria Drug & Zinc

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Joseph Berry via The Conservative Woman blog,

    Mystery surrounds why an anti-malaria drug is not being tested as a Covid-19 treatment in combination with zinc, which doctors say is crucial for efficacy.

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    As we reported recently, President Trump revealed he was taking hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) alongside zinc after reports that many doctors are doing the same to help ward off Covid-19. 

    Criticism of the President rose sharply after a non-randomised study published in the Lancet said that HCQ provided no benefit to hospitalised Covid-19 patients while being linked to increased deaths. 

    What the mainstream media did not point out is that the Lancet study failed to test HCQ with zinc. Other experts have found zinc to be vital for efficacy in this context.

    Zinc, available as an over-the-counter supplement, has long been seen as an immune-system booster that helps develop immune cells, or antibodies, and can strengthen the body’s response to a virus.

    American infectious disease specialist Joseph Rahimian explained that, in relation to Covid-19, zinc ‘does the heavy lifting and is the primary substance attacking the pathogen’. HCQ is said to work as a delivery systemfor zinc in fighting coronavirus.

    Ironically, the Lancet study came out at the same time as it was reported that India’s premier health body had expanded use of HCQ as a preventive for key workers following three studies showing positive results. 

    Conflicting reports and political axe-grinding have thickened the fog of war on this, but we know a number of things:

    1. HCQ has been around for decades and is a ‘safe’ treatment for malaria and other conditions including lupus and arthritis (as the BBC has acknowledged). 

    2. Many doctors (and India) use HCQ as a preventive measure, as President Trump is now doing. A survey of doctors by a leading American physician staffing firm found that 65 per cent would give HCQ to their own family as a prevention or treatment. The UK is now conducting trials into whether HCQ can help prevent Covid-19. Results are not expected before the end of the year, although there will be results sooner from similar trials in the US.

    3. International experience suggests HCQ can be effective in tackling Covid. Reports from France, Italy and Spain point to positive results from the use of HCQ, while a number of other countries are seeing success including Turkey, Costa Rica, Algeria, Belgium and Bahrain. This month a Shanghai-based doctor reported that, in China, a combination of zinc, hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin ‘has been able to save coronavirus patients’. 

    4. Many prominent Americans are taking HCQ to treat Covid-19 (and recovering) even as opponents attack President Trump for following the lead of many doctors. Hall of Fame rock star David Bryan, best known as the keyboardist for Bon Jovi, tested positive and was treated with HCQ, among other things. By late April, he was said to have recovered. Former Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar has now admitted her husband was treated with HCQ after he contracted coronavirus. After his rapid recovery, Senator Klobuchar said (through gritted teeth): ‘I believe he did briefly take that drug.’

    Sadly it doesn’t seem to be the priority of most mainstream journalists, and some in the scientific community, to report the facts on HCQ in a responsible manner. As political commentator Scott Adams recently pointed out, the corporate news (CNN, Fox News etc) has no credibility when it comes to reporting on pharmaceuticals. In this context, this may be partly due to politics, but it is also a result of their financial stake in drug advertising.

    With regard to reporting of the Lancet’s finding about increased deaths, Adams asked whether this should be seen as a surprise ‘given that we know the HCQ can have some heart issues with people who already have heart issues. Do [elderly people who are dying from coronavirus] have strong hearts? Probably not’.

    He added:

     ‘What they don’t do on CNN is mention that if you don’t test it with the zinc [then] I’m not sure that you’ve really tested the thing that has the most promise. Where is that [test]?’

    He has a point. A number of doctors say zinc is essential.

    California emergency physician Dr Anthony Cardillo said during a local television interview:

    ‘[HCQ] really only works in conjunction with zinc. Every patient I have prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within eight to twelve hours they were basically symptom-free and so clinically I am seeing a resolution.’

    This frontline experience was backed up by a study by the New York University Grossman School of Medicine published this month. It found that those receiving the triple-drug combination (HCQ, with azithromycin and, crucially, zinc) ‘were 44 per cent less likely to die, compared with the double-drug combination (i.e. without zinc)’.

    As the study notes:

    ‘This study provides the first in vivo evidence that zinc sulfate in combination with hydroxychloroquine may play a role in therapeutic management for Covid-19.’

    The above makes the question of why zinc was not used in the Lancet study more baffling. And why don’t the media note that the combination of zinc and HCQ is crucial?

    As Scott Adams put it:

    ‘When they say the President is taking this drug that is killing people . . . it is not true. It is basically a lie . . . Both Fox News and CNN are doing something is completely illegitimate . . . I don’t know any reason you would do that other than to mislead.’

    Sadly, with a Presidential election approaching, it’s doubtful whether the barrage of fake news over this treatment will be replaced by professional reporting. We can only hope that the truth – whatever it may be – will win out in the end.

  • Here Are All The NYC Restaurants That Have Permanently Closed During The Coronavirus Crisis
    Here Are All The NYC Restaurants That Have Permanently Closed During The Coronavirus Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 22:00

    In a world where hotels and restaurants already face a dismal future, a new study has found that nearly two-thirds of publicly traded restaurants are at risk of bankruptcy as the Covid-19 pandemic batters the industry. The odds of failure are even higher for small companies and restaurants that specialize in dine-in, consulting firm Aaron Allen & Associates said in an analysis. It identified Bloomin’ Brands, Potbelly and Chili’s owner Brinker International Inc. among those at greater risk according to Bloomberg.

    “It’s really the full-service model that’s in the biggest danger,” principal Aaron Allen said. “Some of those that are in casual dining – a lot of those had already been bleeding cash, bleeding locations.”

    And while Americans are starting to tentatively venture out again, and restaurants are seeing a modest rebound from rock bottom according to OpenTable data…

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    … the dining recovery may be slow with unemployment on the rise, cautious spending and also ongoing concerns about health and safety. This leaves the restaurant industry – already upended by broad stay-at-home orders that led to sharp declines in restaurant sales – facing a bleak future. 

    One of the biggest challenges restaurants face, according to the study, is convincing Americans that it’s safe to dine in. TGI Friday’s is taking unusual steps to lure customers in, including renting party tents to expand dining space to parking lots. “When people are eating outside they feel much safer,” CEO Ray Blanchette said in an interview. Some of their stores in southern states already have patios, he said.

    The difference between the restaurants that survive and those that don’t may come down to which can make customers feel most comfortable, according to Katherine Miller, vice president of impact at the James Beard Foundation.

    “People are going to return to places that they trust first,” she said in an email. “Mostly trust to keep them safe.”

    Unfortunately, for the following landmark New York City restaurant, it’s too late, as a sizable group has been forced to shutter permanently as the industry contends with colossal losses to the tune of billions of dollars. Among those that have closed are decades-old neighborhood stalwarts like Keith McNally’s Lucky Strike, along with some newer establishments like Randall’s Barbecue on the Lower East Side.

    According to Eater, this may just be the beginning of permanent closures, however, as rent and utility payments continue to mount in the coming months. There’s also no word yet from the state or city governments on when restaurants will be able to reopen, and what that return will look like. In April, a survey conducted by the National Restaurant Association predicted that 4 percent of New York’s roughly 25,000 restaurants had permanently closed after the start of the pandemic, and predicted that another 7 percent would close this month.

    Below is a list of the permanent restaurant closures in NYC so far as catalogued by Eater.

    May 29

    Midtown: The Copacabana — an iconic New York City nightclub whose stage has seen the likes of Harry Belafonte, the Supremes, and Carmen Miranda — permanently closed this month after an 80-year run in multiple locations. A staffer at the nightclub attributed the closure to the novel coronavirus shutdown, adding that the venue planned to return next year at a new unspecified location.

    Times Square: Manhattan’s luxe new hotel the Times Square Edition, which temporarily closed in light of the pandemic, is set to permanently close this August, just one year after its hyped-up Manhattan debut. The hotel is home to several restaurant and bar options helmed by chef John Fraser, including its ninth-floor Terrace Restaurant and the Outdoor Gardens, an all-day American brasserie. The flagship fine-dining restaurant 701West notably received three-stars in the New York Times. The hotel was a partnership between hotelier Ian Schrager and Marriott International Inc.

    Tribeca: Vietnamese fast-casual restaurant Vietspot has permanently closed just two years after opening in the neighborhood. Owner Sophie Nguyen tells Tribeca Citizen that she hopes to fully reopen the FiDi outpost of the restaurant — which is also the original location — when the current restrictions on dining-in are lifted. For now, that outpost is open for delivery and takeout.

    West Village: Japanese grilling destination Takashi has left the West Village after more than a decade in the neighborhood. The novel coronavirus shutdown dealt the tabletop grilling spot “a particularly deft blow,” according to a letter posted to the restaurant’s website by owner Saheem Al. Given the restaurant’s focus on interactive, family-style meals, a pivot to delivery or takeout didn’t make sense, Ali wrote, while the restaurant was too small to make a comeback with dine-in service at reduced capacity.

    West Village: Blenheim, an upscale farm-to-table restaurant in the West Village, appears to have permanently closed without announcement, according to tipsters who described the space as “cleared out entirely.” In its six-year run, the restaurant was known for its “grown-to-order” produce, which comes from two farms in the Catskills also owned by the restaurant. At the time of writing, the owners have not posted a closing announcement to their website or social media page.

    May 22

    Tribeca: Manhattan mini-chain Schnippers has permanently closed its Tribeca outpost, according to local publication Tribeca Citizen. The Schnippers brothers opened the burger restaurant in 2016; the duo had founded and operated Hale and Hearty soups until 2006, when they sold the company. Three other Schnippers remain, in Times Square, Midtown, and the Financial District.

    Upper West Side: Charming French restaurant Bistro Cassis announced that it would close after more than 15 years of business. The Upper West Side bistro remained open for takeout and delivery service through the first two months of the coronavirus pandemic, serving its popular French onion soup, rack of lamb, and steak frites to locals in the neighborhood. Despite an outpouring of support from customers online, though, the restaurant shared that its last day would be May 11.

    Upper West Side: Upper West Side’s counter-service kosher spot Effy’s has permanently closed according to an announcement from the restaurant’s owners. The seven-year-old restaurant was beloved in the neighborhood for its breakfast and brunches, which highlighted Mediterranean and Israeli dishes. Although the owners did not cite a reason for closing, a chalkboard sign in front of the restaurant last week did share hopes to serve diners again at another location in the city.

    May 15

    Chelsea: Boston-based tapas restaurant Toro NYC will not be reopening following the coronavirus pandemic. The restaurant — an expansion of the successful, original Toro restaurant operated by JK Food Group — posted a message to its Facebook and Instagram accounts in March, announcing that its “staff will not have a restaurant home to come back to when this pandemic ends.”

    East Village: Michelin-starred sushi omakase spot Jewel Bako has closed its doors for good, EV Grieve reports. The restaurant — “one of the most enjoyable places to enjoy sushi in the city,” according to New York Magazine — posted a sign to its door earlier this week advertising an “open house sale” with kitchen appliances, supplies, and wine for sale. The team’s nearby chef counter Restaurant Ukiyo has closed as well, the owners confirm to Eater.

    Flatbush: The Brooklyn location of Wolf and Lamb Steakhouse has closed as a result of the novel coronavirus pandemic, owner Zalman Wuensch announced over Facebook. “After nearly a decade serving the Brooklyn Kosher community, we are sad to announce that due to issues related to the corona crisis, Wolf and Lamb is sad to be closing our Brooklyn location,” Wuensch said. The steakhouse’s midtown Manhattan location is temporarily closed but plans to reopen when it is safe to do so.

    Fort Greene: After more than six years in the neighborhood, Fort Greene’s Greene Grape Annex has permanently closed. The airy cafe — known for its naturally-lit dining room, late-night hours, and many, many planter boxes — closed due to the coronavirus pause, says owner Amy Bennett in an email to her staff. “I look forward to a time where things are back to (a new) normal and the kind of neighborhood social interaction that Annex fostered comes back,” she says. The Greene Grape Annex is survived by the nearby Green Grape Provisions grocery store and Greene Grape Wine and Spirits, where some of the cafe’s staff will be rehired.

    Greenpoint: Cherry Point, an English-inspired farm-to-table restaurant, shuttered after four years due to the coronavirus shutdown. The bistro was best known for its selection of meats, which earned it a loving two-star review from Times critic Pete Wells last year. Owner Vince Mazeau says he fought to keep the restaurant open so that his staff could continue earning money, but in March, the weight of upcoming rent payments became too much. Mazeau arranged an agreement with his landlord to postpone rent payments while he sought out a lease takeover.

    Hudson Square: The huge flagship store of chocolatier Jacques Torres has decided not to renew its lease, a decision made before the coronavirus crisis. Jacques Torres first debuted this Hudson Square storefront back in 2004, when the mass-market chocolate company was still in its infancy. The company’s well-liked chocolates, chocolate chip cookies, and ultra-rich hot chocolate can still be purchased online and at its six other locations.

    Park Slope: The Brooklyn location of Soho’s popular Blue Ribbon Fried Chicken appears to have permanently closed. A real estate sign in the restaurant’s window lists that the storefront is available for lease, according to a tipster in the neighborhood, while the store’s Open Table page lists the spot as permanently closed.

    Upper East Side: After a successful two decades in the neighborhood, Upper East Side favorite Beyoglu has permanently closed. A sign posted on the Turkish restaurant’s door says that the owners were unable to pay to extend their lease as a result of the coronavirus shutdown. Known for its doner kebab, hummus, and traditional Turkish fare, Beyoglu was particularly popular during warmer months with its outdoor seating that stretched around the corner.

    Washington Heights: Popular Irish pub Coogan’s has closed after more than 30 years in Washington Heights. The owners of the restaurant had received a temporary rent moratorium from their landlord but were unable to pay the cost of the leases on their restaurant equipment, according to the New York Times. The neighborhood stalwart was able to avoid closing once before, back in January 2018, when more than 14,000 people signed a petition to save the restaurant from rising rent prices.

    May 8

    Columbus Circle: Two luxury cocktail bars from famed Chicago-based restaurant group Alinea permanently closed on April 15. Despite Alinea’s popularity in Chicago, the Aviary and the Office were received with mixed reviews during their two-year tenures in the Mandarin Oriental hotel at Columbus Circle. Alinea co-founder and restaurateur Nick Kokonas confirmed that the bars were already scheduled to shut down on April 15, a decision made before the COVID-19 crisis.

    East Village: Nearly 100-year-old East Village shop Gem Spa shut down permanently after a tumultuous year. The iconic shop, reportedly the birthplace of the egg cream and long a fixture in NYC’s punk rock and art scenes, had landlord issues and lost its lottery and cigarette license in August, something that represented more than 80 percent of revenue. A robust social media campaign and apparel sales celebrating the shop’s history, though popular, ultimately were not enough to keep it going due to COVID-19’s impact.

    Financial District: One of Lower Manhattan’s oldest bars, the Paris Cafe, has permanently closed after more than a century in the Financial District. The pub was 147 years old, and was almost destroyed during Hurricane Sandy, according to Tribeca Citizen. On March 6, owner Pete O’Connell posted on Facebook that he had no option but to close the Paris Cafe. “Through no fault of anyone but the outbreak of this virus, we are unable to forge a way forward that makes economic sense,” he said.

    Forest Hills: The Irish Cottage, a popular local restaurant that’s been around for 60 years, announced it would be close on May 7. Run by the McNulty family, the restaurant prided itself on Irish tradition and being an active part of the community by hosting fundraisers and live music. Kathleen McNulty, who ran the business since 1986, died in April due to complications from COVID-19; her sons made the decision to close, saying that takeout would not sustain the business.

    Greenwich Village: After 36 years and many accolades, fine dining trailblazer Gotham Bar & Grill has permanently closed. The Greenwich Village institution, which received one Michelin star and three stars from Pete Wells, permanently closed on March 13, at a time when many restaurants were just beginning to announce temporary closures. A spokesperson said it was due to the virus, though a source at the restaurant said that was only part of the reasoning.

    Lower East Side: Well-liked barbecue joint Randall’s served its last pastrami and brisket on April 3, owner and pitmaster Jared Male posted on Instagram. Shortly after opening in August 2018, Eater critic Robert Sietsema stopped in for a visit, where he had some memorable pastrami and brisket.

    Rego Park: Irish pub and restaurant Woodhaven House opted to close permanently due to the “devastating” financial impact of the crisis. The restaurant, known for its live music and cozy, wood-laden space, had been in the neighborhood for 16 years.

    Soho: Neighborhood institution Lucky Strike closed for good on April 15, following more than 30 years in Soho. The French-American bistro from Keith McNally landed on Grand Street in 1989, well before better-known hangouts like Balthazar and Pastis. Despite its popularity, though, McNally shared in a 2016 interview that Lucky Strike didn’t make “any money,” which is at least part of the reason the bistro closed. The crisis, McNally said, made it difficult for the restaurant to work financially.

    Soho: One of New York City’s earliest craft cocktail bar destinations, Pegu Club, has permanently closed after close to 15 years in Soho. Owner Audrey Saunders shared that the bar’s lease was set to expire in October, and though she planned to keep the bar open until then, the coronavirus shutdown “has taken every bit of the life we had out of us.”

    West Village: Daddy-O, the popular West Village dive bar known as hangout spot for local chefs, permanently closed on April 30 after more than 20 years. The bar is responsible for several of the entries on Eater NY’s list of hard-to-find foods in NYC, including Western New York specialties like the “garbage plate,” but it was largely beloved for its vibe as a neighborhood bar.

    Williamsburg: After a 16-year run in Williamsburg and Nolita, Ithaca-based coffee roaster Gimme Coffee permanently closed its two New York City storefronts due to the economic impact of the virus. The coffee roaster’s Williamsburg outpost, which opened in 2003, was among the first third-wave coffee shops in the city, setting the stage for a boom in espresso drinking and indie coffee culture over the next decade.

  • Watch Live: Riots Erupt From Coast To Coast; Curfews Imposed; Stores Looted; D.C. Activates National Guard
    Watch Live: Riots Erupt From Coast To Coast; Curfews Imposed; Stores Looted; D.C. Activates National Guard

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:52

    Here’s a live stream of multiple riots across the country:  

    Summary:

    • Peaceful protests quickly turn violent across major US cities 
    • US cities announce curfews after protests turn violent 
    • Protests unfold across from White House 
    • Seven states now activating National Guard troops 

    Protests in major US cities 

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    * * *

    Update (22:10ET): The military police has arrived at the White House…

    … as crowds of protesters gather.

    … and as rioters charge the Police after a reported explosion:

    … and the DC National Guard has been activated:

    …as Military Police from the National Guard are now lined up in front of the White House

    The president does not appear too nervous, tweeting moments ago that he has activated the National Guard in Minneapolis “to do the job that the Democrat Mayor couldn’t do. Should have been used 2 days ago & there would not have been damage & Police Headquarters would not have been taken over & ruined.”

    Meanwhile, NYC is going from bad to worse to downright “Joker.”

    And, just like in Chicago, the island is starting to barricade itself: the Manhattan Bridge is now shut down:

    * * *

    Update (22:00 ET): Curfews are being imposed across the nation in response to the riots:

    • Minneapolis
    • Atlanta
    • Denver
    • Philadelphia
    • Pittsburgh
    • Seattle
    • Cleveland
    • Columbus
    • Portland
    • Miami
    • Milwaukee
    • Rochester, NY

    LA too:

    • L.A. EXTENDS CURFEW TO ENTIRE CITY FROM 8 P.M. TO 5:30 A.M.

    And here’s why:

    • PROTESTERS BREACH BARRICADE ON RODEO DRIVE BEVERLY HILLS, ATTEMPTING TO BREAK INTO THE GUCCI STORE – CBSLA
    • THE NORDSTROM STORE IN THE GROVE SHOPPING MALL IN LA BEING LOOTED – CBSLA
    • NOW LOOTING THE APPLE STORE IN THE GROVE SHOPPING MALL
    • RIOTERS SET BEVERLY HILLS PD VEHICLE ON FIRE – CBSLA

    * * *

    Update (21:53 ET): A police officer in Jacksonville has been stabbed during a protest. According to WTSP, Jacksonville Sheriff Mike Williams said a protester stabbed one of his deputies in the neck and “many people have been arrested” in protests downtown Saturday. Authorities are warning the public to stay away from the downtown area as a protest continues against police brutality.

    Earlier, police officers – seemingly terrified to fight back – were attacked and dragged through the streets of Chicago.

    And in Salt Lake City, a man yelling  “all lives matter” was overpowered after pointing hunting bow at protesters.

    * * *

    Update (21:40 ET): New York is rapidly falling to the rioting mob, with scenes taken straight out of the joker, as cop cars get barricaded by protesters, and while some make their way out…

    … others aren’t so lucky.

    Meanwhile the confrontations between police and protesters are getting all too real:

    The scenes are simply surreal:

    Over in the city of brotherly mugging, things are deteriorating fast too with a cop car on fire, as the Apple store gets looted:

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    A Nike story in Chicago just got rid of some excess inventory:

    * * *

    Update (20:19 ET): Absolutely stunning video emerges from Seattle this evening of a protester commandeering an AR-15 from a police car. Judging by the clip, the weapon had a loaded magazine and holographic sights. 

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    Then, an unidentified man with an AR-15 comes up to the rifle-wielding protester and quickly snatches it out of his hand. 

    Chaos is unfolding across the country – this is history – unprecedented – and will continue for the coming days. 

    * * * 

    Update (19:52 ET): National Guard convoy spotted rolling into Washington, D.C. as social unrest continues to worsen. 

    * * * 

    Update (18:18 ET): It’s Saturday evening, and social unrest unfolds across America as the country quickly descends into chaos. Many of today’s protests started peacefully but have suddenly turned violent.

    Let’s start in Philadelphia, where multiple cars are on fire. 

    Protesters torch a Starbucks at Dilworth Park outside City Hall. 

    Meanwhile, in Dallas, a mob has attacked a line of cop cars.

    Heavily armed Dallas Police shoot tear gas into the crowd. 

    A massive crowd assembles in downtown Miami.

    Protesters shut down a highway in Miami. 

    VOA’s Steve Herman tweeted, “demonstration turns violent” in Chicago. 

    Protesters and police clash in Chicago. 

    In the Fairfax district of Los Angeles, a huge crowd gathers in the streets. 

    Police car lit on fire in downtown Los Angeles. 

    Protesters turn violent at the White House. 

    Protesters swarm highway in San Diego. 

    Massive crowds forming in NYC. 

    Chaos in Times Square. 

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    Police fire tear gas at protesters in Seattle.  

    Massive crowd develops in Cleveland, Ohio. 

    One shocked Twitter user said: “Protestors have arrived in BeverlyHills. I’d never thought I’d see a protest in Beverly Hills. Wow. I hope this stays this peaceful.”

    New reports indicate Colorado National Guard activates after buildings in Denver were damaged with explosives and rioters armed with rifles.  

    None of this is surprising considering the country has just experienced an economic collapse with 40 million people unemployed. Social unrest will likely get worse before it gets better. Riots could continue into next week. It’s only a matter of time before National Guard troops are called up around the country. 

    Watch Riots Across America Live 

    * * *

    Update (13:35ET): Daily Mail reports the Pentagon has told active-duty military police to be ready to deploy to Minneapolis, a move that would hopefully squash the continued social unrest. The last time the military was sent into a US metro area to disperse large crowds was during the 1992 Los Angeles riots. 

    “As unrest spread across dozens of American cities on Friday, the Pentagon took the rare step of ordering the Army to put several active-duty US military police units on the ready to deploy to Minneapolis, where the police killing of George Floyd sparked the widespread protests.

    “Soldiers from Fort Bragg in North Carolina and Fort Drum in New York have been ordered to be ready to deploy within four hours if called, according to three people with direct knowledge of the orders. 

    “Soldiers in Fort Carson, in Colorado, and Fort Riley in Kansas have been told to be ready within 24 hours. 

    “The people did not want their names used because they were not authorized to discuss the preparations.” – Daily Mail 

    Fox News reported that protests could be seen in more than 50 cities on Saturday evening. 

    * * * 

    Update (12:50ET):  Several videos surfaced online of protesters (on Friday night) in Oakland stealing cars from dealerships. 

    In one instance, protesters torched exotic sports cars at a Mercedes dealership. 

    * * *

    Update (11:19 ET): Prepare for a night of hell, as per Fox News’ report that 50 cities could see protests on Saturday night. 

    * * *

    Minnesota Governor Tim Walz summed-up the current chaos erupting nationwide perfectly:

    “This is absolutely no longer about George Floyd or addressing inequities anymore. This is an organized attack designed to destabilize civil society.”

    Protests raged overnight in dozens of U.S. cities, including Minneapolis, Washington, D.C., New York City, Atlanta, Houston, and several large metro areas on the West Coast. 

    Protests or social unrest was seen in these major metros on Friday night: 

    • Houston & Fort Worth, TX
    • NYC
    • Chicago, IL
    • Atlanta, GA
    • Washington D.C.
    • Detroit, MI
    • Fort Wayne, IN
    • Kansas City, MO
    • Des Moines, IA
    • Vegas, NV
    • Charlotte, NC
    • San Jose, CA
    • Boston, MA
    • Memphis, TN
    • Columbus, OH
    • Denver, CO
    • Cincinnati, OH
    • Portland, ME
    • Louisville, KY

    Starting in Minneapolis, where unrest continued into the fourth night following the death of George Floyd, a man who was killed by Minneapolis Police on Monday, had Minnesota National Guard Adjutant General Jon Jensen and Governor Tim Walz announce the request for 1,000 more soldiers from the National Guard as widespread rioting and looting continued. 

    “This is the largest civilian deployment in Minnesota history that we have out there today, and quite candidly right now, we do not have the numbers,” Walz said Saturday morning.” We cannot arrest people when we are trying to hold ground because of the sheer size, the dynamics, and wanton violence.”

    Jensen expects by Saturday evening, up to 1,700 soldiers will be “ready to go.” On Friday night, assault rifle-wielding soldiers were spotted on the streets within the ranks of local police. 

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    Minneapolis protest May 29. h/t Unicorn Riot

    A fleet of armored Humvees lined the street “on Chicago Ave in between Lake St. and 31st as firefighters battle raging fires 8 blocks from where George Floyd was killed,” tweeted Unicorn Riot. 

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    Minneapolis protest May 29. h/t Unicorn Riot

    Protesters appeared to have torched a Wells Fargo bank. 

    Building structure(s) are still on fire on Saturday morning. 

    Chaos and destruction continue into the weekend.  

    Scenes last night from Interstate 35W, a major highway system in the U.S. that passes through downtown Minneapolis, where protesters broke into a moving UPS truck and stole packages.

    In response to Washington, D.C. protests on Friday evening, President Trump thanked the Secret Service on Saturday morning for protecting the White house.

    “Many Secret Service agents just waiting for action,” President Trump tweeted. 

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    Meanwhile, the Treasury Department in DC was breached by rioters, who spray-painted the building. According to CNN, some of the protesters were stopped by US Secret Service but eventually let go.

    Down in Atlanta, CNN’s headquarters were attacked by protesters on Friday evening. 

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    h/t Ryan Maue May 29

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    h/t Ryan Maue May 29 

    Several stunning images of the unrest in Atlanta last night.

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    h/t Twitter handle kieroncg May 29 

    An angry mob lit NYPD Police vans on fire last night:  

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    h/t Twitter May 29

    Rioting in Brooklyn overnight. 

    From Houston to Phoenix to Portland, police forces have reported widespread social unrest. 

    As things spiral out of control, two Federal Protective Service officers suffered gunshot wounds in Oakland, California, last night, leaving one of them dead. 

    Oakland was crazy in the overnight, one protester stole a skid loader tractor and drove it down the street. 

    Protesters clashed with police in Oakland. 

    Protesters looting a car dealership in Oakland. 

    Several years ago, US Northern Command “rehearsed non-lethal riot control tactics” at Davis-Monthan AFB in Arizona. Perhaps preparation for widespread social unrest across the country. The government has known this day was coming… 

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    US Northern Command training for riots in 2018 

    President Trump signed an executive order in late March that allows the Pentagon to mobilize up to a million troops to combat the coronavirus outbreak in the country. The order could now be directed at social unrest. It’s only a matter of time before more state governors activate National Guard troops like Minnesota did early this week. 

    We were the first to note Friday, the federal government flew a military drone above Minneapolis to spy on protesters.   

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    A perfect storm develops: 40 million unemployed, economy crashed, record polarization and wealth inequality at extremes, the country is quickly descending into chaos into the summer months. So what happens when the government stops unleashing helicopter money for people who recently lost their jobs?

  • Trump Blasts "Outdated Group Of G7 Countries" – Postpones Summit After Merkel Rebuff, Will Invite Russia Back In
    Trump Blasts "Outdated Group Of G7 Countries" – Postpones Summit After Merkel Rebuff, Will Invite Russia Back In

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:35

    Update: In a stunning change after President Trump initially pushed G7 leaders to go ahead with an in-person meeting at the White House and Camp David as early as June for the sake of “normalization”, promptly rebuffed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who indicated Saturday she would not attend while citing the still raging pandemic – the president told reporters aboard Air Force One later in the day that he’ll postpone till September.

    But the real shocker, and unprecedented, is what came after in his comments upon return from Cape Canaveral to Washington: he blasted the Group of Seven meeting format as a “very outdated group of countries” and expressed that he plans to invite four additional non-member nations, mostly notably Russia.

    “I’m postponing it because I don’t feel that as a G7 it properly represents what’s going on in the world,” Trump said. In addition to the usual seven of the US, Italy, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, and United Kingdom, Trump said he’ll include for the first time Australia, Russia, South Korea and India.

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    Via Reuters

    Needless to say, both America’s allies and national security state hawks are going to flip, given especially the sensitivity of the Ukraine issue. Recall that what was once the G8 became the G7 after in 2014 Russia was kicked out over the Crimea annexation amid the war in eastern Ukraine.

    It’s a hugely unexpected pivot at a moment of multiple domestic and global crises, but maybe some level of a “distraction” over this tumultuous weekend across multiple US cities is precisely the point.

    * * *

    After President Trump for the first time last week pushed for an in-person G7 summit, which is at this moment still officially on the schedule as a videoconference meeting in late June due to the pandemic (it was originally planned for Camp David), Germany says Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected the change in plan, saying she won’t be in attendance.

    This after Trump extended concrete plans to hold the gathering — which includes heads of the US, Italy, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom, also European Union leaders — “primarily at the White House” but also possibly parts in Camp David in Maryland as well.

    “As of today, considering the overall pandemic situation, she cannot agree to her personal participation, to a journey to Washington,” Merkel’s spokesman said, which followed a Friday night report in Politico. “She will of course continue to monitor the development of the pandemic.”

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    G7 meeting in 2019, via AFP file image.

    “The federal chancellor thanks President Trump for his invitation to the G7 summit,” the spokesman added.

    It’s clear from the statement citing pandemic fears that the German leader thinks it too early to gather in person. Trump pushed it as a hopeful sign of “normalization”.

    The president tweeted on May 20, “It would be a great sign to all — normalization!” — explaining that a rescheduled in-person summit would be a sign of the retreat and defeat of the virus, and economic recovery.

    The White House viewed a normal summit gathering as a “show of strength” to the world as economies in the West slowly open back up, however, such a key G7 country as Germany giving a firm ‘no’ will likely put a crimp in the plans.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Other countries have issued vaguely positive responses but more likely are remaining on the fence, likely to take cues from first-movers like Germany. 

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson “agreed on the importance of convening the G7 in person in the near future” according to a Friday White House statement, while Canada’s Trudeau said he’d entertain it as long as safety was prioritized, and France’s Macron said he was “willing to go to Camp David if the health conditions allow”.

  • America: One Screen, Two Movies, Three Times The Trouble
    America: One Screen, Two Movies, Three Times The Trouble

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    Scott Adams has a perfect phrase to describe our political divide.

    “One screen, two movies.”

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    What he means is that two people see the same event and process it in completely opposite ways, depending on their perspective.

    That perspective is made up of a whole host of things – current state of mind, personal experience, personality traits, body chemistry, etc.

    Take that one step further and incorporate human survival traits like in-group/out-group bias and the potential for self-reinforcing feedback loops of anxiety to explode into unbridgeable divisions within society become very likely.

    None of what I just described is novel. It shouldn’t even need to be explained at this point. But, we’re living in such a state of heightened anxiety it is easy to lose sight of the basics.

    I’ve been writing this blog now for more than three years. I have to remind myself of things I wrote previously that I’ve forgotten about in the day-to-day grind chronicling the devolution of our society into madness.

    Because all of us, including me, are exhibiting signs of real madness when confronted with the monstrous events we perceive playing out on our movie screens.

    There is an information war occurring that is aimed at creating hair trigger reactions to events to advance particular political agendas. It doesn’t matter what the issue of the day is. Today it’s the burning down of Minneapolis over police brutality.

    The footage of George Floyd being murdered is enough to trigger most any decent person into a near-murderous rage.

    And, as Scott pointed out in his commentary on this, no one is arguing the murder of George Floyd was anything other than just that, murder. Whites, blacks, browns, men, womyn, cis, xe, he, vegan, capitalist.

    So, why is this a race issue? Why are our media and our political class cheering on the destruction of a U.S. city and fanning the flames higher, excusing the destruction to promote a false race war?

    Because that’s what they want to see and get a critical mass of people to also see it that way.

    We’re all outraged by underlying incident. There aren’t two movies here.

    Unfortunately, the way we express this outrage is based on where we are at the moment we view it.

    If we are in deep state of anxiety, where the left-brain has suppressed the right because survival instincts kick in, then we default to the easiest, quickest explanation. For those on the left, fed a toxic mix of identity politics and Communism, police brutality is the perfect metaphor for systemic racism and cultural division.

    Paralyze the police and undermine the fabric of the society. But it isn’t like the police haven’t been a growing problem in this country for decades.

    Since the Clinton Crime Bill of the 1990’s cops have been consistently militarized to the point of inhumanity.

    Police officers today look nothing like my dad as NYPD in the 1970’s when societal unrest there was as bad if not worse then what’s happening in Minneapolis today.

    And I remember watching the Rodney King riots in LA with him and he saying then the problem in policing is the men have no life experience, no skin yet in the game, i.e. family.

    His generation of police are gone. Even the ones that came behind him are leaving the scene (dad would have been 92 this year). My dad didn’t live to see the Clinton Crime Bill but he would have been against it.

    Because with the subsequent wars and the federal money their loyalty was politicized, the degradation of their relationship to their community eroded to where it is now. Do you seek out police interactions today or fear them?

    What movie is playing in your head? Because I know which one is playing in mine. Hence, you know, Gold Goats ‘n Guns.

    Both of these trends have accelerated as we grind through this Fourth Turning. Endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have police forces, already militarized, staffed with guys who have combat experience, that see the job through that lens. Screening for mental instability is faulty at best so mistakes are going to happen.

    Tyranny is guaranteed alongside the corruption and the need for all men to regain a lost sense of potency in a world sinking into depravity.

    And those jobs need to be filled especially as the wealth is drained from the lower and middle classes through ruinous taxation, regulation and endless money printing.

    But, we’re supposed to be divided along race lines because of a white cop choking out a black man? And this is an excuse to burn down a city and instigate riots all over the country?

    There isn’t any connection between these things and reality. Everyone is being played for a chump here.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The sad truth is, as President Trump pointed out and Twitter censored, George Floyd is irrelevant now. This has taken on a life of its own. It’s about chaos and much larger issues than the incident which spawned it.

    What’s happening in Minnesota was a coordinated attack.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    What’s your reaction to this screen? What movie are you seeing here?

    My movie says this is the next stage of the operation to oust Trump from power. The Coronapocalypse movie is mostly over but it’s had its intended effect of dividing us even further.

    Now Antifa-style mask-wearing has been thoroughly normalized. Now the person in the CVS standing next to you can be a threat to your community.

    Too paranoid a movie for you?

    I’m sorry but image systems matter. That’s the whole point of putting movies on the screen in the first place.

    Jack Dorsey and Twitter are daring Trump to regulate or shut down the platform with their censoring his tweets. CNN and MSNBC know their sit-down ratings are abysmal. Their real ratings exist on social media.

    In that sense they are no more legitimate news than people with iPhones posting thoughts on Instagram and Twitter.

    The movie they are selling is Trump is to blame regardless of what happens, just like in Charlottesville. If he brings in the National Guard to mow down black people in the streets and get any number of Twitter Moments to further confuse what you’re watching.

    If Trump does nothing he loses Conservatives who believe in law and order, fairness and all of that. If he over-commits he’s got Kent State times ten on his hands.

    While my movie says this is definitely an operation designed to inflict maximal political damage on Trump the sub-text of my movie screams about what is truly wrong with America.

    That this is a power struggle for the next century by evil people manipulating desperate and cynical ones into acts of violence and hatred which is falsely directed by a script pre-written to keep us angry, fearful and divided.

    And until we all back away from the screens and see that script for what it is, this will escalate until a lot more than just Minneapolis is burning.

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon if you want help seeing the scripts behind the movies. Install the Brave Browser if you want to starve Google from making bad movies.

  • US Army Deploys "Elite Trainers" To Help Colombia After Cocaine Production Triples
    US Army Deploys "Elite Trainers" To Help Colombia After Cocaine Production Triples

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:00

    It’s a shame that we’re all likely going to be social distancing this Christmas, otherwise certain investment banks sound like they could be setting up for one hell of a holiday party.

    In fact, a party that’s three times as better as its been in recent years. 

    That’s because the U.S. is deploying “an elite group of military trainers” to Colombia to help the country’s counter-narcotics offensive deal with raging cocaine production in the country. Production of cocaine has “more than tripled” within the last few years, according to Bloomberg. 

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    The U.S. has assisted Colombian forces for years, but this marks the first time the U.S. has sent members of its Security Force Assistance Brigade. The troops will be in Colombia to provide training and won’t take part in combat. The deployment is also an attempt to put pressure on Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. 

    In another move many thought was to put pressure on Maduro, President Trump had said back in April that he was adding a naval presence in the Caribbean to help fight the drug cartels. 

    Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America said: “The intended audience for this training deployment is probably in Caracas.”

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    Meanwhile, the increased amount of cocaine output coming out of Colombia has led the President to cut the country off from certain support, aid and loans. According to the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, potential cocaine production fell 1.4% last year, but only after reaching a record of 900 tons in 2017.  

    U.S. Southern Command said: “In Colombia, the team will work with host units in areas designated by the Colombian government as ‘priority areas’ where they will focus on logistics, services and intelligence capabilities.”

    The deployment is expected to last about four months and will be specific to drug producing regions.

  • Minneapolis Riots Are Reminder That Police Don't Protect You Or Your Property
    Minneapolis Riots Are Reminder That Police Don't Protect You Or Your Property

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Looting and arson have followed what began as peaceful protests in response to the apparent killing of George Floyd by Derek Chauvin, a now-former member of the Minneapolis Police Department.

    But whatever was the spark that set off the current round of rioting in the Twin Cities area, it is clear that most property owners and residents will have to fend for themselves where riots have taken place. In other words, any unfortunate shopkeeper or resident who finds himself in the path of the rioters ought to just assume that police won’t be around to provide any protection from the mob.

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    For example, The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports:

    The police station on E. Lake Street has been the epicenter of protests this week… Nearby, Minnehaha Lake Wine & Spirits, the target of looters the night before, also was set ablaze. …On Wednesday night, a man was fatally shot and crowds looted and burned buildings on E. Lake Street late into the night.

    Earlier in the day, in St. Paul, looters broke windows, stormed through battered-down doors and snatched clothes, phones, shoes and other merchandise from shops along University Avenue near the intersection of Pascal Street. Officers formed a barricade in front of Target. But police were absent a block away at T.J. Maxx, where looters smashed down the door and fled with heaps of clothing piled on shopping carts.

    Many business owners who now face destruction at the hands of rioters can scarcely afford it:

    Many of the shops destroyed along this stretch of E. Lake Street are immigrant-owned businesses — many of which were already struggling during the coronavirus pandemic. “Now it’s worse,” said Roberto Hernandez, who stood guard outside his nutrition store for five hours to fend off looters. (emphasis added)

    Another man, who was working to open a sports bar in the area later this year, saw his bar destroyed. Needless to say, with only a few exceptions, the police weren’t around to “protect and serve.”

    Admittedly, in cases like this week’s riots, the police are heavily outnumbered and unable to provide any sort of general protection from rioters. Even if individual officers were engaging in heroic behavior to turn rioters away from potential victims, there would be little they could do to confront all offenders.

    But heroics or not, the outcome for victims is the same: they must rely on self defense, formal private security, or private armed volunteers likely to be labeled as “vigilantes.”

    A failure to protect taxpaying citizens from violence and crime in a wide variety of situations is standard operating procedure for police departments which are under no legal obligation to protect anyone, and where “officer safety” is the number-one priority. The lesson to be learned here is that the alleged “social contract” between citizens and the state is a one-way street: you pay taxes for police “services,” and the police may or may not give you anything in return.

    Police Are Not Obligated to Provide Protection

    It is now a well-established legal principle in the United States that police officers and police departments are not legally responsible to refusing to intervene in cases where private citizens are in imminent danger or even in the process of being victimized.

    The US Supreme Court has made it clear that law enforcement agencies are not required to provide protection to the citizens who are forced to pay for police services, year in and year out.

    In cases of civil unrest, of course, be prepared to receive approximately nothing from police in terms of protecting property, or life and limb.

    During the 2014 riots that followed the police killing of Michael Brown, for example, shopkeepers were forced to hire private security, and many had to rely on armed volunteers for protection from looters. “There’s no police,” one Ferguson shopkeeper told FoxNews at the time. “We trusted the police to keep it peaceful; they didn’t do their job.”

    More famously, shopkeepers during the Los Angeles riots defended their shops with private firearms:

    “Where are the police? Where are the police?” [shopkeeper Chang] Lee whispered over and over from his rooftop perch. Lee would not see law enforcement for three days — only fellow Korean-Americans, who would be photographed by news agencies looking like armed militia…

    Officer Safety Comes First

    During the Columbine school shootings in Colorado in 1999, the Sheriff department’s “first responders” formed a perimeter outside the building and refused to enter because the situation was deemed too risky for law enforcement. Meanwhile, children were being slaughtered inside.

    Nearly twenty years later, law enforcement officers at the Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland Florida cowered behind vehicles while students were murdered inside the school.

    But even in cases where police are willing to enter the premises and attempt to subdue violent criminals, the victim may find law enforcement officers to be of little help. According to 2008 data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, police response times to violent-crime-related calls exceeded 11 minutes one-third of the time. Things were no better twelve years earlier in 1996, when a similar survey was conducted. Now, twelve years after 2008, there’s no reason to assume anything has improved.

    11 minutes is a long time to wait when dealing with a violent criminal.

    Moreover, when police do arrive, don’t expect a competent response. The cases of Atatania Jefferson and Botham Jean provide some helpful reminders.

    According to multiple accounts of the Jefferson case, a neighbor of Jefferson called police to “check up” on Jefferson whom the neighbor feared Jefferson might be in danger. Jefferson was soon shot dead in her own living room by law enforcement. The shooter — a now-former cop named Aaron Dean — entered Jefferson’s private property unannounced in the middle of the night. He peered into Jefferson’s windows, and within seconds, the officer had shot Jefferson dead. Jefferson had been playing video games with her nephew.

    A year earlier, former police officer Amber Guyger was sentenced to ten years in prison for unlawfully shooting Botham Jean in his own apartment. At the time, Guyger was a police officer returning home from work. She illegally entered the wrong apartment and promptly shot Jean — the unit’s lawful resident — dead.

    And, of course, there is the case of Justine Damond, who called the Minneapolis Police Department to report a possible sexual assault near her home. When police arrived, they shot Damond dead, for no known reason other than hysterical fear on the part of police.

    Those who proactively attempt to defend themselves fare little better. In 2018, Colorado resident Richard Black used a firearm to defend his grandson against an intruder. Unfortunately, someone called the police. When officers arrived, they opened fire on Black, even though was only a threat to the criminal intruder. 

    The lesson to be learned from all this is that it is foolhardy, to say the least, to rely on law enforcement officers to intervene to provide “safety” when troubles arise.

    After all, experience has shown police are thoroughly unmotivated when it comes to preventing, or even investigating true violent crime. Confronting violent criminals is dangerous and costly. Thus, police departments are geared much more around encouraging harassment of petty offenders (such as George Floyd) and going after small-time drug offenders while confiscating property under asset forfeiture laws.

    This provides revenue to pad agency budgets while prioritizing the targeting of easy marks, rather than violent offenders. In the United States, more than half of serious crimes are never solved.

    And yet, though it all, we hear again and again the myth that law enforcement agencies will provide protection, retrieve stolen property, and keep the peace. Many people in Minneapolis are now experiencing the reality.

  • Used Car Prices Offer Brief Respite After Plunging Below Forecasts Last Month
    Used Car Prices Offer Brief Respite After Plunging Below Forecasts Last Month

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 20:00

    Over the last few months we detailed how used car prices were set to cripple what little interest in new cars remains, how dealers are scrambling to desperately offer incentives and how ships full of vehicles are being turned away at port cities due to a lack of space and inventory glut.

    Today, it’s looking like the market is seeing a much needed respite, even though it may be temporary.

    Used car prices are bouncing back from last month’s low and approaching forecasts that were made prior to the pandemic. In fact, J.D. Power’s weekly wholesale auction price index is now only down 1.9% from where it was expected prior to the virus.

    Car auctions around the country were shutting down last month and many in the industry had warned about the potential for prices to collapse as a result, according to Bloomberg. We had pointed out worries about used car pricing weeks ago, noting the pressure that a drop in pricing could put on manufacturers and rental car companies.

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    In fact, since then, Hertz filed for bankruptcy, while desperately trying to unload some of its rental car inventory.

    As we reported previously, earlier last week Hertz dumped a bunch of Corvette Z06s on to the used car market in what experts said was a great deal for buyers. And more used car deals are starting to roll out on Hertz’s website after the company’s bankruptcy filing announcement. As caught by Jalopnik, here’s a 2020 BMW 740i for $52,949 and only 8,595 miles on the odometer, more than $10K below Blue Book value for cars in the same area.

    We also pointed out how GM, Ford and others were set to lose billions as a result of a crash in used car prices. Mid-month April data from Manheim showed that the used vehicle value index had fallen 11.8% for the first 15 days of April, a decline on a record setting pace, according to Bloomberg. 

     

    Auto companies had only been expecting a 5% to 7% drop in used car prices. We also reported weeks ago that GM was only bracing for a 4% drop in prices and that a further drop could put extreme financial stress on the company.

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    For example, Joel Levington, a credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence said last month: “GM assumed a 4% decline in residual values this year. If the 10% drop Manheim has seen recently persists, depreciation expense could counter the $1.9 billion that GM Financial earned in pretax profit last year.”

    Whether or not the respite in prices is temporary and permanent likely depends on how long the country can stay open again. With more legs in showrooms and business as usual at used car auctions, the market may continue to see a bid (albeit a stressed one, due to the financial shape of the U.S. consumer). 

    However, if the virus begins to spread again and the country is again placed on lockdown, automakers and used car sellers could be heading for Round 2 of the very same hellish scenario they first experienced in April. 

  • A Closer Look At Taxpayer-Funded COVID Contractors Reveals Inexperience, Fraud, & A Weapons Dealer
    A Closer Look At Taxpayer-Funded COVID Contractors Reveals Inexperience, Fraud, & A Weapons Dealer

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 19:30

    Via ProPublica.org,

    The Trump administration has promised at least $1.8 billion to 345 first-time contractors, often without competitive bidding or thorough vetting of their backgrounds.

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    A firm set up by a former telemarketer who once settled federal fraud charges for $2.7 million. A vodka distributor accused in a pending lawsuit of overstating its projected sales. An aspiring weapons dealer operating out of a single-family home.

    These three privately held companies are part of the new medical supply chain, offered a total of almost $74 million by the federal government to find and rapidly deliver vital protective equipment and COVID-19 testing supplies across the U.S. While there’s no evidence that they obtained their deals through political connections, none of the three had to bid against competing firms. One has already lost its contract for lack of performance; it’s unclear if the other two can fulfill their orders on time, or at all.

    They are among about 345 first-time federal contractors promised at least $1.8 billion in deals by the Trump administration since March, representing about 13% of total government spending on pandemic-related contracts of $13.8 billion, a ProPublica analysis of federal procurement data found. Like the three companies, many of the new contractors have no experience acquiring medical products.

    Some of them, including the ex-telemarketer’s company and another firm established by a former White House aide, formed only days or weeks before landing multimillion-dollar government contracts. The U.S. government’s reliance on them, with what appears to be scant vetting of their credentials, represents a major gamble whose outcome could affect how many Americans are infected by the coronavirus and how quickly the U.S. economy recovers.

    “We’re putting schedule above quality, to some extent, in this time of great need,” said Trevor Brown, a professor of public management at Ohio State University. “There’s just so much pressure to get PPE into the field, I’m not surprised there’s a relaxing of focus on the quality of the product.”

    Track Federal Government Coronavirus Contracts

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    Coronavirus Contracts: Tracking Federal Purchases to Fight the Pandemic

    The federal government is spending billions of dollars to combat the coronavirus, and spending shows no sign of slowing down. Explore who the U.S. is buying from, what it’s buying and how much it’s paying.

    The U.S. health care system and federal agencies were woefully unprepared for the pandemic. As novel coronavirus infections surged in March, hospitals quickly ran short of N95 respirator masks, gowns and other protective gear for front-line workers. The National Strategic Stockpile became depleted within weeks, and every level of government has struggled to restock.

    Scrambling to cope with an unprecedented public health crisis, several federal agencies limited their vetting process to checking that companies and their owners were not officially barred from receiving government contracts. The agencies also have bypassed competitive bidding on many purchases, as is allowed under federal law when there is an “unusual and compelling urgency.”

    This strategy appears to have boosted less established firms; ProPublica’s analysis found that 51% of the deals with first-time contractors were without competition, compared with 32% of pandemic-related contracts overall. For example, at the White House’s directive, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has awarded more than $60 million in contracts for test swabs and sample containers to be distributed to states and Native American tribes — all without competitive bidding.

    The large-scale reliance on no-bid contracts is worrisome because it increases the risks of price gouging, fraud and faulty products, said Steve Kelman, a former administrator of the Office of Federal Procurement Policy.

    “Even if you’re allowed to do that, even if you need to act quickly, I would not just go to one company and say, ‘Sell it to us,’” said Kelman, now a Harvard University professor of public administration.

    Agencies often award the deals without proof that the desired inventory exists. Payment is contingent on performance; if a vendor doesn’t deliver, the government walks away. Under the terms of their deals, companies may even be required to pay the difference if they fail to provide supplies and the government has to use a more expensive contractor. With the coronavirus continuing to sicken tens of thousands of people daily and keeping tens of millions out of work, the most important costs may be in time lost, increased cases and economic stagnation, if delays in getting supplies where they’re needed lead to more infections and prolonged quarantines.

    On April 20, the Department of Veterans Affairs granted a $14.5 million contract for N95 masks to Bayhill Defense, which formed in 2017 and lists a house in Pittsburgh in government filings. (The firm also has warehouse space in a Pittsburgh suburb, according to its website.) The company, which has a federal firearm license, says on its website that it sells “defense industry products,” including ammunition, assault rifles, grenade launchers, rocket systems, mortars and anti-aircraft guns, “to be provided to the United States and other friendly nations.” It has never received a contract from the Department of Defense, according to federal procurement data.

    Bayhill Defense agreed to provide the masks in 10 days, but it never delivered any, and the VA canceled the contract this month without paying the company. Reached by phone, Andrew Taglianetti, the company’s president, declined to explain how Bayhill Defense secured the deal or why it failed.

    “It’s all good,” Taglianetti said.

    During crisis and war, the federal government has often turned to new contractors selling specialty products or promising to deliver quickly. While these arrangements can be beneficial for agencies and vendors, they also have a troubled history.

    After the U.S. invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, fighting lasted years longer than the Pentagon had planned. It needed food and other basic supplies faster than its existing contractors could provide, said Charles Tiefer, a law professor at the University of Baltimore and expert on government purchasing. Military officials hired businesses in the region, particularly Kuwaiti trading companies. The deals were rife with corruption and several ended in criminal prosecutions, Tiefer said.

    Similarly, when Hurricane Katrina devastated parts of the Gulf Coast, fraud and waste in procurement plagued the federal response, Tiefer said. “Government contracting is at its worst when it doesn’t have time and it has to take on an emergency.”

    The owner of one first-time contractor examined by ProPublica, Fillakit LLC, has repeatedly faced fraud allegations. Beginning on May 7, FEMA gave three deals totaling $10.5 million to Fillakit, which had incorporated in Florida just seven days before, according to government records. Under the terms of the contracts, Fillakit is supposed to supply FEMA with swabs as well as containers for uncontaminated samples.

    Fillakit’s incorporation documents list an address in a business park north of Houston, and a St. Petersburg, Florida, lawyer as its agent. They provide no information about the company’s ownership.

    However, the cellphone number for Fillakit in the federal contract data belongs to Paul Wexler, a businessman repeatedly accused of fraudulent practices over the past two decades. Wexler’s background is primarily in law and real estate, not medical supplies.

    In 2012, the Federal Trade Commission accused Wexler and his telemarketing firm of illegal robocalling, making unauthorized charges to consumers’ bank accounts and falsely claiming to be a nonprofit organization. Wexler’s firm allegedly misrepresented itself as a credit counseling service for several years, charging customers for work it did not do, according to court records.

    Wexler denied the charges but settled the case a year later. The settlement banned him from offering debt relief services — but not from being a federal contractor — and imposed a $2.7 million judgment.

    Wexler confirmed to ProPublica that he owns Fillakit, but he declined to answer other questions about the company or his background. “I’d love to help you, I can’t right now,” he said. “We’re doing so much right now, the volume that we’re doing, I’ve got hundreds of people and I just don’t have time to do this.”

    Wexler said Fillakit is preparing to send the swabs and containers to FEMA. “We’re just pumping them out as fast as we can for them, so I’ve really got to stay on point here,” he said.

    In a written statement last Friday, FEMA said it has paid Fillakit $381,000 for one delivery of swabs and containers. The company has less than six weeks to provide the remaining $10.1 million worth of test supplies.

    Before telemarketing, Wexler was a lawyer and real estate developer building custom homes in Colorado. He declared bankruptcy in 2003. Afterward, court records show, several banks and business associates accused him of financial misconduct.

    Geoffrey Phillips loaned Wexler’s development company $75,000 in 2002. It used a home as collateral for the loan, but the property actually belonged to Wexler and his wife, according to court records. Wexler’s company didn’t repay the debt, and Wexler listed the home as his personal residence in his bankruptcy filing, protecting it from seizure. Phillips sued, accusing Wexler of fraud. Phillips won the lawsuit and the bankruptcy judge removed the home from protection.

    In an interview, Phillips said he was baffled that FEMA would approve Wexler’s deal. “Don’t you think the government would check him thoroughly before they gave him a contract?” Phillips said. “Unbelievable.”

    Under federal procurement law, only the history of Wexler’s company is relevant, not his personal track record, said Brown, the Ohio State professor. “The contract officer can’t go back and use the information on his prior behavior for another company as evidence in decision-making.”

    FEMA said that it did not evaluate Wexler’s past business practices, only those of his fledgling company. “FEMA reviewed Fillakit’s quote and their contractor assurance statement. Nothing was found that would render this company ineligible for award,” the agency said.

    In addition to newly formed companies, well-established firms in other industries have moved into medical supplies and secured their first government contracts without competition.

    The VA gave a $14.7 million contract for masks to Aunt Flow, an Ohio-based seller of tampons and other menstrual products for dispensers in women’s bathrooms. When orders for its products slowed during the pandemic, the company converted its own manufacturing facilities in China to produce surgical masks, and it began selling them to existing clients as well as federal agencies. Then, it tried to capitalize on its manufacturing relationships in China to bring in a shipment of the heavier-duty N95 masks for veterans hospitals.

    But as the supplies were being loaded on a plane, the Chinese government ordered all of the manufacturer’s masks diverted for domestic use, said Claire Coder, the company’s CEO. She said she immediately called the VA to inform it that the company couldn’t fulfill the deal, and the money was never paid.

    Medea Inc., a California-based liquor company, also got a federal contract to supply surgical masks. This month, FEMA awarded a $48.8 million deal to Medea, which is a boutique vodka brand best known for decorating its bottles with colorful LED displays. Its marketing videos feature former NBA star Shaquille O’Neal.

    A New Jersey finance firm is suing Medea in federal court, alleging it committed fraud during sales negotiations by falsely claiming Costco and Kroger had agreed to stock the brand nationwide. Medea has denied the allegations in court filings. A pending lawsuit is not normally grounds to deny a federal contract.

    Medea has high-level political ties in California. Terry McGann, a member of Medea’s board and its former chief executive, is a former registered state lobbyist. McGann’s wife, Marie Moretti, led a state agency that coordinated volunteer efforts across California before working as Medea’s first chief financial officer. She’s now its chief marketing officer. McGann said political influence did not help the liquor distributor secure the contract, and he referred all other questions to the company. Medea executives, including Moretti, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

    FEMA did not answer a question about whether Medea has begun delivering masks, which are due by June 1. Asked about the company’s qualifications, a FEMA spokesperson wrote that the liquor company was chosen “based on meeting the evaluation factors for award specified in the solicitation.”

  • Less Than Half Of Americans Plan To Get COVID Vaccine: AP Poll
    Less Than Half Of Americans Plan To Get COVID Vaccine: AP Poll

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 19:00

    A week ago we took note of the results of a Reuters/Ipsos survey which found 25% of Americans have no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine. Those prior findings also confirmed a trend that the majority of Americans said they would need to review additional research on the vaccine to determine if it was safe, suggesting the majority would stay home as opposed to health officials’ hoped-for expectation the majority would inundate local clinics to gain ‘immunity’ via a new inoculation. 

    This as President Trump’s much touted but perhaps dubious Operation Warp Speed program has the ambitious aim of producing 300 million doses of a vaccine by January, a goal that we and others have pointed out is widely unrealistic. Naturally most Americans might have intense doubts and anxiety over injecting a substance into their bodies which was “rushed” or fast-tracked to market, obviously without the normative lengthy research and trial process. 

    A new Associated Press poll out this week confirms the public skepticism. It found that only 49% of 1,056 Americans surveyed would intend to get the vaccine.

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    Image source: AP

    On the other side 20% said they would noted get inoculated at all and another 31% are unsure. The survey was conduced in the middle of this month.

    The AP described the number of those apparently planning to reject a vaccine is “surprisingly low considering the effort going into the global race” for the key preventative measure. 

    “The unexpected looms large and that’s why I think for any of these vaccines, we’re going to need a large safety database to provide the reassurance,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told AP.

    Americans interviewed in association with the new poll precisely echoed concerns over safety given the speed at which it would be rolled out:

    Among Americans who say they wouldn’t get vaccinated, 7 in 10 worry about safety.

    “I am not an anti-vaxxer,” said Melanie Dries, 56, of Colorado Springs, Colorado. But, “to get a COVID-19 vaccine within a year or two … causes me to fear that it won’t be widely tested as to side effects.”

    Interestingly, the results are parallel to the numbers of people who said they planned to get a seasonal flu shot (52% according to a 2019 National Foundation for Infectious Diseases poll).

    * * *

    Here’s a quick breakdown of the latest AP poll numbers: 

    • 67% percent of those over 60 plan to get the vaccine 
    • 40% of those under 60 would
    • 56% of whites say they’ll get the vaccine 
    • Only 25% of blacks and 37% of Hispanics say they’ll get it 
    • 62% of Democrats say they will get it 
    • Only 43% of Republicans say they plan to

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  • Chinese Cheating Rampant In US College Applications, And In Classrooms
    Chinese Cheating Rampant In US College Applications, And In Classrooms

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 18:30

    Authored by Eduardo Neret via Campus Reform,

    Fake transcripts and essays, falsified letters of recommendation and test scores, paid consultants, and fake passports and IDs. These are just some of the many methods that Chinese nationals have reportedly used to gain acceptance into U.S. colleges and universities.

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    What once might have been a few isolated incidents has now turned into a vast, international money-making industry.

    Hiu Kit David Chong, an admissions official at the University of Southern California (USC), pleaded guilty in April to wire fraud in and helping Chinese students defraud their college applications. According to the Department of Justice, Chong admitted to making $40,000 from clients over the years by providing “false college transcripts with inflated grades,” “fraudulent personal statements,” and “phony letters of recommendation” for the applications of his Chinese clients. 

    He also offered to provide surrogate test takers for the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) exam for international students.

    Chong was not the only person offering such services. In fact, according to a 2012 report by Time Magazine, a “huge industry of education agents” has emerged to appeal to the increasing number of Chinese nationals who want to study abroad at U.S. universities.

    Zinch China, a consultancy firm, found that 80 percent of Chinese students use agents to apply to U.S. colleges, with even more engaging in cheating. The company approximated that 90 percent of recommendation letters and 70 percent of college essays submitted by Chinese students are fraudulent. Additionally, 50 percent of previous grade transcripts are also fake. Ten percent lied about academic or extracurricular achievements, and 30 percent lied about financial aid information.

    Surveys indicate Chinese families see a U.S. education as a luxury that can provide future financial benefits, which drives the “whatever it takes” culture surrounding the application process and the fraud committed to achieve it. Zinch China also noted the competition among college consultants and the pressure from parents also contributed to cheating.

    “Cheating is pervasive in China, driven by hyper-competitive parents and aggressive agents,” Tom Melcher, the chairman of Zinch China said.

    While Chinese students have existed in the U.S. for decades, there has been increased growth over the last ten years. According to the Power of International Education, the number of Chinese foreign students in the U.S. as of 2019 was 369,548, which was more than the next three nations, India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia, combined. Chinese students represent approximately one-third of all international students, and their presence has grown by 56.68 percent since the 2012-2013 academic year.

    Peggy Blumenthal, senior counselor to the president of the Institute of International Education, says colleges began to more heavily recruit Chinese international students after the Great Recession when college enrollment was on the decline. Agents can cost anywhere from thousands of dollars, or even up to $40,000 according to the Beijing Overseas Study Service Association. Foreign Policy even discovered a family that paid $90,000 to an agent.

    In one example from 2015, CNN reported on a Chinese student named Jessica Zhang from Jiangsu Province. Zhang’s family paid $4,500 to three different consultants, who filled out her application and wrote her essay and recommendation letter. Zhang even had her visa arranged by the consultants and said she hired them because the process would’ve been “too much hassle” on her own.

    The international college consultant business is only worsened by the commissions that agents receive from U.S. colleges and universities for enrolling students. While federal laws prevent higher education institutions from paying to recruit domestic students, there is no law to prevent them from paying commissions to recruit international students.

    Some companies even help students cheat on the SAT. Because of security issues with the College Board over the last few years, which owns the SAT, some overseas companies have obtained the answer keys to the test.

    According to Reuters, since 2014, the College Board has delayed the release of scores from Asia six times and canceled exams two separate times—all because exam material had been made available. Surprisingly, the College Board later restricted testing and increased security in other Asian countries like South Korea, where some test leaks occurred, but took no such action in China.

    One such student who received an answer key from his Shanghai-based tutoring company bragged about getting a perfect score on one section of the SAT, since he knew the answers to approximately half of the questions in advance.

    “The reality is for international students, particularly in Asia, there’s a worry about whether the application is authentic, whether the essay is authentic, whether the person who shows up at your door is the same person who applied,” Joyce E. Smith, chief executive of the National Association for College Admission Counseling told Reuters.

    Unfortunately for U.S. colleges and universities, which have struggled to monitor and identify the fraud, reports seem to suggest that cheating only continues once many of these students are on campus or in the U.S.

    Schools like the University of Arizona, Ohio State University, and the University of Iowa have experienced cheating scandals involving Chinese students. An analysis by the Wall Street Journal found that records of cheating for international students at more than a “dozen large” U.S. public universities were five times greater than that of American students. At some universities, the reported cases of cheating among international students were eight times higher than domestic students.

    In one egregious example, the University of Iowa estimated in 2016 that dozens of their Chinese students enrolled in a service that Reuters reported would complete a lot of the work needed to obtain a university degree, including completing assignments and taking exams.

    According to three Chinese suspects who spoke to the outlet, the companies that helped the students cheat were Chinese-run.

    Reuters also uncovered similar Chinese cheating services offered to students at Penn State University, the University of Alabama, and the University of Washington. The companies also offered a money-back guarantee to students who did not get As in their classes.

    The “Varsity Blues” college admissions scandal in 2019 even involved cases of cheating and visa fraud. The federal government arrested Liu Cai, a Chinese student who attended UCLA, and four other California residents of Chinese descent for using fake passports to impersonate Chinese nationals to take the TOEFL exam, which is required to obtain a student visa.

    Some professors have tried to address the cases of academic dishonesty and lack of effort in the classroom, but have faced challenges in doing so.

    At UC-Santa Barbara, art professor Kip Fulbeck, who himself is of Chinese descent, faced backlash in 2018 after writing a set of class expectations in Chinese for the Chinese international students. According to the L.A. Times, Fulbeck became frustrated with students sleeping or being distracted by their phones in class, as well as those who left the class and did not come back. Fulbeck began to realize that a significant number of students engaging in such behavior were Chinese international students.

    Fulbeck later met with UC Santa Barbara’s Vice-Chancellor and some aggrieved students, but ultimately blamed the school for failing to deal with the increasing number of Chinese students and educating them on American classroom and education standards. He was also not the only professor aware of the rampant cheating among Chinese students.

    Paul Spickard, a history professor at UC-Santa Barbara and member of the faculty admissions committee, told the L.A. Times that at a meeting, faculty were told that Chinese students account for one-third of all plagiarism cases on campus, despite only comprising 6 percent of the entire student population. Spickard caught one Chinese student’s plagiarism after the student used old British English colloquialisms and citations that were over 50 years old.

    Richard Ross, another art professor at the university, told the L.A. Times that he even resigned over the growing cheating problem.

    “My role turned from educator to enforcer, and I didn’t want to do it anymore,” Ross said.

  • Live Nuclear Testing Could Resume In 'Months' At Nevada Site If Approved
    Live Nuclear Testing Could Resume In 'Months' At Nevada Site If Approved

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 18:00

    Late last week the Trump administration raised eyebrows among the American public and around the world when it was revealed it is actually considering conducting a nuclear test for the first time in 28 years, ultimately as a ‘message’ to Russia and China. It was discussed two weeks ago (May 15) at a “deputies meeting” of senior national security officials at the White House.

    Though apparently shelved for the time being a senior official told The Washington Post the idea of a US test is “very much an ongoing conversation.” But assuming the administration is actually ready to pull the trigger on such a test, how long would it take to get to the point of conducting the nuclear blast from the time the order is given? 

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    Entrance to the Nevada National Security Site where it’s believed future nuclear tests would be conducted. 

    A Pentagon official told Defense Daily this week that it would take only a matter of months to ready a nuclear-explosive test, even though the last one was all the way back in 1992, upon the end of the Cold War. Though the official noted such a rapid rollout would include “minimal diagnostics”. 

    Likely any potential future US nuclear test would take place at highly secure national testing grounds in Nevada: 

    Previous heads of the agency’s semiautonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) have talked “about a very quick test with limited diagnostics, though certainly diagnostics, within months,” said Drew Walter, who is performing the duties of deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear matters. “A fuller test, fully diagnostic, and lots of data, all the bells and whistles, so to speak, might be measured in years. But ultimately, if the President directed because of a technical issue or a geopolitical issue, a system to go test, I think it would happen relatively rapidly.”

    Walter also said that he believes the NNSA has a borehole at the Nevada National Security Site that would be suitable for such a rapid test.

    In terms of any hot geopolitical issues which might provide impetus for “rapid” pursuit of a new test, recall Washington has of late charged both Russia and China with ‘illegally’ conducting low-yield nuclear tests, which both countries have denied.

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    In Beijing’s case it’s believed China’s military is able to conceal such provocative tests at an elaborate underground testing facility, though Chinese officials have vehemently denied this.

    Currently the Nevada National Security Site is undergoing a major upgrade to its underground complex where it’s believed future American nuke tests would be conducted. 

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    File image via Brookings.edu

    Meanwhile, it remains that one of the biggest geo-strategic obstacles to the US conducting a test is that analysts believe it would free up Russia and China to conduct their own tests, given if Washington abandoned its strictly observed nuclear test moratorium, others would have reason and justification to follow suit in abandoning prohibitions and international obligations. 

    * * *

  • Why The Assumption That High Unemployment Benefit Will Keep Workers From Returning To The Labor Market Is Deeply Flawed
    Why The Assumption That High Unemployment Benefit Will Keep Workers From Returning To The Labor Market Is Deeply Flawed

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 17:30

    Submitted by Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

    “Contacts cited challenges in bringing employees back to work, including… generous unemployment insurance benefits.” That’s the topic getting the most attention from the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book out Wednesday. There’s more to the story, however:

    • As we noted yesterday in our review of the report, the extra $600/week unemployment insurance stimulus ends on July 31st, so that should help employers persuade workers to get back on payroll.

    • Business owners who received a PPP loan must eventually offer to rehire those they laid off. If a worker rejects the offer, the employer must often report the employee to the state unemployment office thus making the worker ineligible to keep receiving unemployment insurance benefits.

    • The PPP loan only covers up to eight weeks of wages, rent and other expenses. Given that business shutdowns started in mid-March, the window for many businesses to ask workers if they want their job back is narrowing.

    In the end, however, the most important driver of whether furloughed workers quickly return to their jobs may come down to competition in the labor force. Let’s not forget that US unemployment is +/- 20% right now, and not everyone is collecting enhanced UI. Far from it, in fact. Employers can reasonably expect to have many job applicants in the coming months.

    That leverage only works if there are people searching for work right now, so we looked at Google search volumes for a variety of COVID Crisis-affected service sector jobs to see if that was the case:

    #1: A comparison of Google searches for “retail job”, “restaurant job”, “hotel job” and “bar job” over the last year.

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    Our take:

    • Searches collapsed in mid-March as businesses in the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors closed. Interest has picked up to about half of normal levels over the last month as more US states reopen their economies.

    • The top three states searching for each query: “retail job”: Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas. “Restaurant job”: New Hampshire, Utah, Rhode Island. “Bar job”: Wisconsin, Missouri, Pennsylvania. “Hotel job”: Hawaii, Iowa, Oklahoma.

    • Most of those states have started reopening their economies, some even already allowing dine-in or outdoor dining at restaurants over the course of May. The two exceptions: Pennsylvania will allow outdoor dining statewide soon on June 5th, while restaurants in Hawaii can reopen on June 1st.

    Bottom line: demand for service sector jobs is increasing right now, so currently furloughed/laid off workers face potential competition from others who would take a job today. If called to return to work, they will have to consider the very real possibility that if they decline or try to defer their job will not be there later. Also consider that tens of thousands of retail/leisure/hospitality workers are unemployed and may not have unemployment insurance; this will only increase demand for service sector jobs in the months to come.

    #2: A comparison of Google searches for “Walmart job”, “Amazon job” and “Essential job” over the last year.

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    Our take:

    • Searches for “Walmart/Amazon/essential job” all spiked in mid-March when businesses closed, highlighting the brief period in which those were the only kinds of jobs available to apply for.
    • Interest has since dissipated as states allow establishments to reopen and the labor market resets to greater normalcy.

    Bottom line: Amazon and Walmart could see more interest again as the extra unemployment insurance money gets phased out next month since many of those positions are full time and offer benefits. Many small businesses will likely cut people’s hours to part-time as already shown in the latest Beige Book: “some employers noted that while they didn’t lay off staff, they did reduce the number of hours they worked.”

    By contrast, Amazon just announced that the company plans to offer permanent jobs to as many as 70% of those it hired temporarily to meet demand during the COVID-19 Crisis. This full-time work includes health insurance and retirement plans.

    In sum, the assumption that high unemployment payments will keep workers from returning to the labor market is deeply flawed; there is and will be too much competition for jobs to make this a lasting issue. The Beige Book shows it is happening to some degree, but employers – especially those who took federal assistance – can only hold off on offering people their jobs back for so long. Even though some workers may refuse employment, there are clearly many Americans actively seeking jobs in retail and leisure and hospitality again as they become available in reopened states.

    Sources:

    Fed Beige Book: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20200527.pdf

    Amazon announcement: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-amazon-com-workers-idUSKBN2341FD

  • "Far-Left Or Anarchists" – Intelligence Reports ID Rioting Protesters; Mostly Locals Arrested
    "Far-Left Or Anarchists" – Intelligence Reports ID Rioting Protesters; Mostly Locals Arrested

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 17:14

    Update (1705ET): Despite claims by Democratic officials from Minneapolis that “white supremacists” or “foreign actors” are responsible for the violent riots seen across the nation, USAToday reports that Adam Leggat, a former British Army counterterrorism officer who now works as a security consultant specializing in crowd management for the Densus Group, said intelligence reports from his colleagues indicate most of the hard-core protesters in Minneapolis are far-left or anarchists, and that far-right groups have not yet made a significant appearance.

    “The real hard-core guys, this is their job: They’re involved in this struggle, they need protests on the street to give them cover to move in.”

    Additionally, Leggat said looting is typically done by locals – usually people with no criminal record who just get caught up in the moment. And despite claims otherwise by officials, records show most arrested are locals…

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    Of the 45 people arrested for rioting, unlawful assembly, stolen property, burglary or robbery on May 29 and May 30 so far, 38 had Minnesota addresses, according to publicly available jail records reviewed by FOX 9. Only six had out-of-state address, and one person didn’t have address information listed.

    Don’t believe us? A searchable jail roster is available online.

    So why would officials lie? (Gov. Tim Walz said Saturday morning that as many as 80 percent of the people were outsiders.)

    Because the narrative breaks wide open if this is just locals losing their shit… and in fact many Minneapolis residents appear to be growing weary of the violence and destruction, while still supporting peaceful protests. Clearing rubble from a burned-out Walgreens on Saturday, Daniel Braun, 34, said he was sad to see the damage to his neighborhood.

    “There’s civil rights and then there’s burning things down,” said Braun, an attorney.

    “During the day, everything is peaceful. It’s only at night when things happen. Once night falls, please, go home. When it’s dark out and you’re there, you’re not making anything better.”

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    Update (1440ET): After blaming “outsiders” for instigating the riots that have left swaths of Minneapolis in ruins, the city’s mayor, Jacob Frey, is now also blaming “foreign actors”…

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    …while warning that the nat’l guard has been “fully mobilized”.

    Of course! Nobody would be looting if it weren’t for the KGB, duh.

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    Update (1200ET): Perhaps confirming his reasoning for maintaining his Twitter feed (to counter the ‘fake news’ media), President Trump has tweeted in response to the blame-scaping occurring below:

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    There is a delicate tightrope of a path to tread here as politicians, officials, media are forced to admit that these “protests” are now “riots” and while the death of George Flynn at the hands of an over-zealous cop to say the least was egregious, the rioting, looting, and shooting across the nation last night is hard for even the most ardent member of the ‘Resistance’ to defend.

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    So, what they need is a narrative-shifting bump, to get back to the “it’s racism and it’s Trump’s fault” narrative that Biden began yesterday.

    And cue this morning’s Minneapolis, St.Pauls, Minnesote officials press conference this morning to set up the pretense…

    First, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz summed-up the current chaos erupting nationwide perfectly:

    “These are outsiders… This is absolutely no longer about George Floyd or addressing inequities anymore. This is an organized attack designed to destabilize civil society.”

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    Then Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey confirmed that the people who are coming to Minneapolis to protest are not residents and are “coming in largely from outside the city.”

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    “Our Minneapolis residents are scared and rightfully so. We’ve seen longterm institutional businesses overridden. We’ve seen community institutions set on fire. And I want to be very, very clear. The people that are doing this are not Minneapolis residents,” he said at a news briefing on Saturday. He said the protests earlier this week that were mostly peaceful and were largely attended by those who lived in the city, but “the dynamic has changed.”

    “Gradually that shift was made and we saw more and more people coming from outside of the city. We saw more and more people looking to cause violence in our communities, and I have to say, it is not acceptable,” Frey said. “This is no longer about verbal expression. This is about violence and we need to make sure that it stops,” he added. St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter said everyone who was arrested in his city last night was from outside the state. “What we are seeing right now is a group of people who are not from here,” he said.

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    And then finally, Minneapolis Department of Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington once again confirmed that narrative:

    “…I’m not seeing peaceful demonstrations. And I am not seeing, frankly, any empathy or any heart for Mr. Floyd”

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    And added that last night we saw a change in the temperament and the approach:

    “…they are what I call rioters…they are not demonstrating for a case, they are not protesting injustice, they were simply bent on destruction.”

    So the question is – who are “they”? These rioters that suddenly appeared out of nowhere to instill anarchy in the peace-loving people of Minneapolis (and 35 other cities around the nation)? Harrington appears to have an answer – it’s a white supremacist terror cell…

    “…as we have made arrests, we have done contract-tracing similar to our covid response… who are they associated with? what platforms are they advocating for? …and we have seen things like white supremacy… part of an organized criminal organization and we are looking at whether this is an organized cell of terror.“

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    Which also backed up what the Minnesota AG said: “Yes there are infiltrators…They are white & probably white supremacists…”

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    So, there it is folks. Despite scenes of 1000s of black folks looting stores and firebombing police precincts, this is white supremacists’ fault… probably using Facebook to brainwash otherwise-peaceful Americans who just wanted to go about their day (and definitely not antifa! Don’t you dare suggest that, because that would be racist… just asking an awkward question though – how likely is it that a group of young white nationalists would burn a precinct to the ground?).

  • US Slams Iran-Venezuela "Distraction" As 4th Tanker Docks Without Incident
    US Slams Iran-Venezuela "Distraction" As 4th Tanker Docks Without Incident

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 17:00

    The US has slammed what it’s dubbed the “distraction” of five Iranian fuel tankers delivering gasoline to Maduro’s Venezuela, after four total tankers have successfully reached the sanctions-hit country, with a fifth soon to follow.

    A US State Department spokesman downplayed the whole ordeal, which included large Venezuelan military escorts of warships and fighter alongside the tankers for the final 200 miles to the coast, as an orchestrated distraction which will not stop Washington from continuing to “press for the restoration of Venezuelan democracy.”

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    After the arrival of the first tanker “Fortune” at a Venezuelan refinery, via AFP/Getty.

    For days prior to the cross-Atlantic transport, the Trump administration said it was weighing a response, while Caracas complained last week to the UN of “the threat of imminent use of military force by the United States against Iranian vessels carrying Venezuelan-directed gasoline.”

    At least two of the tankers, the first couple to arrive, are now docked and discharging their fuel, while the fifth vessel, the Clavel, is still crossing the Atlantic Ocean, headed toward the Caribbean. Their safe arrival sparked national celebrations in both ‘rogue’ countries Iran and Venezuela. 

    Iran had previously warned that any US attempt at intercepting its fuel tankers “would have serious repercussions for the Trump administration ahead of the November elections” — suggesting the return of a tit-for-tat tanker war scenario such as played out in the gulf last summer.

    The Iranian flag was raised over downtown Caracas this week:

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    But apparently a potential US-Iran-Venezuela crisis in the Caribbean has been averted. Indeed the White House is now facing multiple crises and doesn’t appear in the mood to indulge in any “distraction” in ‘America’s backyard’ waters at this crucial time.

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    Not only are tensions with China at boiling point, especially now wrangling over the Hong Kong issue, but the corona-crisis is continuing, now with Minnesota race riots and entire city blocks in American on fire — and a White House battle over ‘Twitter censorship’ to boot.

  • Pew: Democrats Represent 41 Of 44 Districts With Highest COVID-19 Death Tolls
    Pew: Democrats Represent 41 Of 44 Districts With Highest COVID-19 Death Tolls

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 16:30

    Authored by Sharyl Attkisson,

    Pew Research Center is out with an analysis of coronavirus deaths. It shows they are overwhelmingly concentrated in Congressional districts represented by Democrats.

    Democrats represent 41 of 44 districts with the highest number of Covid-19 deaths.

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    This lopsided distribution could help explain a partisan divide in the views regarding whether a national shutdown was the right move, and whether it’s time to end it.

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    From Pew:

    The coronavirus outbreak has taken the lives of nearly 100,000 Americans. Yet since the start of the outbreak, the death toll has been concentrated in a just a few places – mostly large metropolitan areas, especially the New York City area.

    The places hit hardest by the coronavirus outbreak – which have relatively large shares of ethnic and racial minorities and residents living in densely populated urban and suburban areas – are almost all represented by congressional Democrats.

    A new Pew Research Center analysis of data on official reports of COVID-19 deaths, collected by the John Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, finds that, as of last week, nearly a quarter of all the deaths in the United States attributed to the coronavirus have been in just 12 congressional districts – all located in New York City and represented by Democrats in Congress. Of the more than 92,000 Americans who had died of COVID-19 as of May 20 (the date that the data in this analysis was collected), nearly 75,000 were in Democratic congressional districts.

    Of the 44 hardest-hit congressional districts – the top 10% in terms of deaths – 41 are represented by Democrats, while three are represented by Republicans. These include the New York-area districts, as well as those in the Boston, Detroit and New Orleans metropolitan areas. The average death toll in each of these hardest-hit districts was 1,122 as of May 20.

    The next 100 hardest-hit districts, which represent the remainder of the top third of districts, with an average of 270 deaths, also are disproportionately represented by Democrats: 75 are represented by Democrats, 25 by Republicans.

    About two-thirds (68%) of the 44 least affected districts – the bottom 10%, with an average 13 deaths in each district – are represented by Republicans in Congress.

    Note: Pew finds there are differences in death rates in terms of race but not poverty level.

    Read more here:  Coronavirus death toll is heavily concentrated in Democratic congressional districts

    *  *  *

    Order “Slanted: How the News Media Taught Us to Love Censorship and Hate Journalism” by Sharyl Attkisson at Harper Collins, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books a Million, IndieBound, Bookshop!

  • "The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold"
    "The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold"

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 16:00

    Two months ago, when the market was in a state of near-total chaos as a result of a sudden collapse in global supply chains due to the hasty coronavirus lockdowns, one market that saw unprecedented turmoil was that of physical gold.

    As we pointed out in late March, due to a sudden breakdown in physical gold supply as the world’s top gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticino, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, suddenly stopped producing gold, the  result was a record divergence in the price of spot gold vs gold futures contracts…

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    … with gold futures decoupling and trading far above spot prices.

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    The resulting record divergence in gold futures vs spot (in some way analogous to what happened to the price of the prompt WTI contract in April, when the May WTI contract traded as low as ($40) as traders were willing to pay buyers to store oil in a world where there was suddenly no space for the physical commodity), unleashed a flood of physical gold into the US as a record scramble by traders rushing to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity by shipping bullion to New York sparked what Bloomberg said “may be one of the largest ever physical transfers of the metal.“

    “The flows into New York are unprecedented,” Allan Finn, the global commodities director at logistics and security provider Malca-Amit told Bloomberg as his company’s teams in New York have been working 24 hours a day to cope with unprecedented demand for physical gold while navigating lockdowns, flight disruptions and social distancing.

    Since late March, no less than 550 tons of gold – worth $30 billion at today’s price and roughly equal to global mine output in the period – have been added to Comex warehouse stockpiles; hundreds of tons of that was imported. On its own that amount of gold would represent the 11th largest sovereign holding, larger than the ECB’s official 504.8 tons of gold.

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    Traditionally, while tens of billions of dollars of gold change hands every day in financial markets, a much smaller amount tends to physically move between vaults in trading hubs like London, Zurich and New York. But that has not been the case in the past two months: it all started to change as the Covid-19 crisis affected the supply chain. As Bloomberg explains what we first highlighted two months ago:

    “when planes were grounded and Swiss refineries closed in late March, traders were worried they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York in time to deliver against futures contracts. That caused futures, which typically trade in lockstep with the London spot price, to soar to a premium of as much as $70 an ounce.

    That created an opportunity for enterprising traders: buy gold somewhere in the world at the spot price, sell futures, and benefit from the difference by shipping the metal to New York.”

    The scale of the trade has been revealed in exchange reports, import and export data and comments from some of the leading precious metals shipping and vaulting companies. It all came to a head on Thursday, when traders declared their intent to deliver a record 2.8 million ounces of gold against the June Comex contract, the largest daily delivery notice in exchange data going back to 1994.

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    The bulk of this gold came from Switzerland, as Swiss gold exports to the US surged, reaching 111.7 tons in April, the highest on record. Already in March gold imports topped $3 billion, according to the Census Bureau, the highest in at least a decade.

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    To meet the unprecedented demand for physical gold, refineries as far away as Australia have ramped up output of kilobars – the form typically delivered on the Comex – to ship to New York.

    For Brink’s Managing Director Mark Woolley, the spike in demand to ship gold to New York has been unlike anything he’s seen in 20 years in the market.

    “The amount of metal that we’ve successfully moved into New York is pretty significant,” he said Thursday on a webinar hosted by the London Bullion Market Association. “It’s probably not far off the total amount of metal that’s been mined in this period.”

    As discussed previously, the CME Group which owns Comex, responded to the unprecedented market dislocation and the sudden lack of physical gold in New York by introducing a new contract allowing the delivery of 400-ounce bars, the type traded in London. Still, “other changes need to be at least considered,” according to LBMA Chairman Paul Fisher.

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    Valcambi 400 oz “Good Delivery” Gold bar.

    With investor demand for physical off the charts, the enormous movement of gold has been a blessing for logistics companies but also a curse: not only have passenger flights – on which shipments are typically transported – been grounded, but New York City, where many Comex warehouses are located (recall JPM’s giant gold vault just happened to be located right next to the NY Fed’s), has also been a hotspot for the virus.

    To deal with flows, Loomis International U.K. opened up additional vault capacity. Malca-Amit considered using airports in Boston and Philadelphia, but hasn’t needed to yet, Finn said.

    That said, while large volumes and virus-related restrictions at vaults and airports caused some delivery delays, much of the spike in the premium for futures contracts in March – which left banks such as HSBC suffering hundreds of millions in losses – was driven by perception rather than reality, Finn said.

    “My own personal opinion is that any assessment on the inability to get gold in was ill-informed at the time and was made on assumptions rather than fact,” he said.

    Still, the bonanza for precious metals shippers may last a while. As we pointed out last week, large deliveries have seen June Comex futures drop to a discount to spot prices this week, but later dated futures are still at a premium. In fact, according to BofA, in a world in which central banks are flooding markets will trillions in freshly printed fiat and faith in the monetary system is quietly shrinking one day at a time, the one asset the “smart money” wants – as it dumps stocks – is, you guessed it, gold.

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    In fact, a simple correlation between the flood in the global money supply and the price of gold suggests the yellow metal has about $1000 of upside.

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    Meanwhile, as investor interest in other precious metals picked up, futures for silver and platinum have also traded at premiums to spot: “The guys in New York have done a great job,” said Brian Hayward, head of Loomis International U.K.

    “We’re seeing a lot of silver head that way right now” Hayward said in what may be very good news for fans of silver, which recently hit record lows against gold…

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    … a move which may very soon reverse violently.

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