- The Virus & The Party – "We Are Now In Phase 3…"
The Virus & The Party – “We Are Now In Phase 3…”
Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
What the future will bring for the 2019nCoV novel Wuhan coronavirus is still unclear. An epidemic it already is, but is it also a pandemic? Some 20 countries have reported infections, but it still could all fizzle out; 305 deaths can be forgotten by next week. Nobody can tell you how this will play out, not even the most experienced and/or smartest virologists and other experts.
Because there’s no telling what viruses will do, not even for them, and because while they have some idea about the infinitesimal size and lifespan of viruses, “ordinary” people have no grasp of either, and that includes managers, planners and politicians. Whether in the rich west or in “up and coming” China.
The timeline is quite literally terribly obvious. In early December -and it could have been even earlier-, it was obvious to doctors and Communist Party (CCP) politicians in Wuhan that something was wrong. But their painfully predictable reaction was to hope this would pass. Never a bad word should be uttered about the Party, and nothing said that could embarrass it.
December passed, as news was getting worse and more obvious due to a large number of “pneumonia” patients. Chinese doctors published an article in the Lancet this week (this week, 6 weeks after the fact!) saying human-to-human transmission had been established by mid-December.
But the code of silence was not broken, even when a man died from the virus on January 9. It took until mid-January before word got out, a full week later. By then millions of people had left and/or entered Wuhan, a city of 11 million, potentially infecting millions of other Chinese and perhaps people abroad. 5 million later left the city for Lunar New Year.
On January 10, the virus was defined and the sequence was shared, but testing didn’t start for another week; patients were registered as pneumonia sufferers, including those that died (we have no idea how many there were).
Then, mid January, doctors starting testing for the virus. The first “exported” case was noted in Thailand on January 13, but it still took more time for the potential threat to be realized and reported. The Party boys were still hoping it would all pass. Can you blame them? They are civil servants, they don’t know anything about viruses, or their threat.
Ironically, over 300 civil servants (Party officials) and health care workers were sanctioned very recently for not doing enough. The Party makes sure the blame is put on individuals, not on itself. Even if all they’ve done is follow the party line. It’s very simply how the system works. And not just in China. If the virus might come to a town near you, check where the blame is placed. It won’t be the president or prime minister, health workers will be first in line, civil servants second.
It’s good to note how fast the novel virus has spread. If only to show what those who are determined to keep such a thing silent are up against. Can’t be easy. 291 cases on Jan 20, 14,562 cases 13 days later. Those are exponential numbers, even if the number of fatalities “only” rose by 46 overnight.
It’s also good to keep in mind that the main threat in viruses is their ability to mutate and become deadlier. This virus now has at least those 14,562 hosts which they can use to mutate in. Hong Kong University doctor and epidemiologist Gabriel Leung and his team said in a Jan 31 report: “In our baseline scenario, we estimated 75,185 infections as of Jan 25.” . And they were reporting on Wuhan alone. In other words, well over 5 times as many hosts and chances for the virus to mutate in just one city. In a city of 11 million people, numbers like that are perhaps not that extreme.
Back to politics.
We have had two phases so far.
1 is first discovery followed by total silence.
2 is damage control, and deflecting all blame from the Party.
We are now in phase 3.
The WHO, which was caught napping as much as the Party in phase 2, lavishes great praise on that same Party now for its “extraordinary safety measures”. Locking down entire cities (increasingly people are not even allowed to leave their homes), speed-building hospitals, you name it. And the WHO is not the only entity praising the Party.
The reason why there is so much emphasis on this is that the CCP is desperate to show everyone, at home and abroad, that it is in control. That there is no reason to worry, at least not due to actions by the Party. If other countries have problems, that is not the Party’s fault.
And also, the Party will take it from here, no need for foreign assistance. They’ll allow in some doctors, preferably WHO related, and they have asked both the US and EU for medical equipment and doctors’ uniforms, hazmat suits, that sort of thing, just so nobody asks any further questions: see, we do accept help! We’ll let you know if we need anything.
Other than that, the Party is in full control, thank you very much. And if Chinese people start protesting the failures of the Party so far, as they are, that is none of anyone else’s business. “We” have it under control”. Ask the WHO, they said so too.
If the Party is allowed to get away with this behavior aimed at self-preservation above anything else, including human lives of both Chinese and foreigners, something bad is sure to happen. Maybe not this time, maybe this one will fizzle out. But the next one, or the one after that, will not.
It is obvious how dangerous this is, putting the interests of the Party, or the economy, above the risk of spreading global pandemic. But is is also obvious why it happens. And it wouldn’t or couldn’t happen only in China. Though the country in its present state is a ideal breeding ground.
Flights are halted. Hundreds of millions will soon be in lockdown. Exports will plunge, because production will. Which will hit the west as much as China. Just so the Party can say it did what had to be done, and so it will stay in power. Xi Jinping knows his power depends on the economy, but he thinks he has what it takes to hold on to power even when the economy tanks.
He can simply declare force majeure, he can tell his people how much worse things would have been had he not decided to lock down everything.
We’ve been following the numbers of infections and fatalities now for 2 weeks or so, even as we know they don’t mean much, they’re just Party propaganda. The Party will release what it thinks it must, but no more. Perhaps we need other sources; these will come if and when things get out of hand. Not that we know they will.
Xi can claim today that he has control. He can say things are not too bad, but we don’t really know, he’s issuing the numbers. What we do know, and there’s the crux, is that he was 6 weeks late in starting to acknowledge the epidemic, in contacting the outside world, in acknowledging his mistakes, and in acknowledging that such mistakes are baked into the model that keeps him in power.
Phase 1 is complete denial, not a word.
Phase 2 is damage control, massaging the numbers downward.
Phase 3 is “close all the doors, not to worry, nothing to see here, we got this, no you can’t come in, too risky!”
But, yeah, praise him while you can. The only praise he cares about is from people just as clueless as he is anyway.
The Party is a highly effective vehicle for protecting its own interests and survival. For other things, perhaps not so much. Viruses can be quite deadly at times. Combine them with politics and the risk factor rises exponentially.
Tragedy assured. Just not every single time.
* * *
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 23:50 - US Stealth Jets Can't Shoot Straight, New Pentagon Report Warns
US Stealth Jets Can’t Shoot Straight, New Pentagon Report Warns
The Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter has suffered a long list of problems that we’ve frequently noted. Now a new report from Bloomberg, citing a Pentagon annual assessment, specifies how the stealth fighters can’t shoot straight.
The Pentagon has already spent upwards of $428 billion on the F-35 program, which will cost taxpayers $1.5 trillion over its 55-year lifespan.
Already, there have been a host of problems with the stealth fighters, including more than 800 software errors.
And the newest problem: A General Dynamics GAU-12/U Equalizer, a five-barrel 25 mm Gatling-type rotary cannon, mounted on some F-35s, has “unacceptable” accuracy of hitting ground targets.
The Pentagon’s new report said the Air Force’s cannon mounted inside the plane, has “unacceptable” accuracy due to “misalignments” in the gun’s mount that didn’t meet specifications.
The report also said mounts for the cannons are cracking, forcing the Air Force to limit the weapon’s use. The F-35 program office has “made progress with changes to the gun installation” to improve accuracy.
The report notes 873 software errors in the plane, as of 4Q19. The good news, it’s down from 917 in 3Q18.
“Although the program office is working to fix deficiencies, new discoveries are still being made, resulting in only a minor decrease in the overall number” and leaving “many significant,” the assessment said.
There was also mention that the planes could be susceptible to cybersecurity “vulnerabilities.”
Here are other unresolved glitches of the F-35 program that we mentioned last year (the partial list via Defense News):
- When the F-35B vertically lands on very hot days, older engines may be unable to produce the required thrust to keep the jet airborne, resulting in a hard landing.
- After doing certain maneuvers, F-35B and F-35C pilots are not always able to completely control the aircraft’s pitch, roll and yaw.
- Supersonic flight in excess of Mach 1.2 can cause structural damage and blistering to the stealth coating of the F-35B and F-35C.
- Cabin pressure spikes in the cockpit of the F-35 have been known to cause barotrauma, the word given to extreme ear and sinus pain.
- The spare parts inventory shown by the F-35’s logistics system does not always reflect reality, causing occasional mission cancellations.
- If the F-35A and F-35B blows a tire upon landing, the impact could also take out both hydraulic lines and pose a loss-of-aircraft risk.
- Possible maneuvering issues when the aircraft is operating above a 20-degree angle of attack.
- The F-35’s logistics system currently has no way for foreign F-35 operators to keep their secret data from being sent to the United States.
Despite the ongoing problems that many F-35s are not combat-ready and have many issues that are putting American pilots in severe disadvantages for a dogfight, Congress continues to order more planes.
As of 3Q19, the F-35 program has 490 planes, many of which could be suffering from computer errors and guns that don’t hit targets.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 23:25 - 40 Privacy Groups Warn That Facial Recognition Is Threatening Democracy
40 Privacy Groups Warn That Facial Recognition Is Threatening Democracy
Authored by Derrick Broze via TheMindUnleashed.com,
On Monday, forty organizations signed a letter calling on an independent government watchdog to recommend a ban on U.S. government use of facial recognition technology.
The letter was drafted by the digital privacy advocacy group Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) and signed by organizations including the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Color of Change, Fight for the Future, Popular Resistance, and the Consumer Federation of America. The letter calls on the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board (PCLOB) to “recommend to the President and the Secretary of Homeland Security the suspension of facial recognition systems, pending further review.“
The PCLOB was originally created in 2004, as an independent agency that advises the administration on privacy issues.
“The Congress specifically found that new surveillance powers ‘calls for an enhanced system of checks and balances to protect the precious liberties that are vital to our way of life and to ensure that the Government uses its powers for the purposes for which the powers were given’,” the letter states.
The organizations challenge the PCLOB to “examine the more significant public concerns about the use of facial recognition in public spaces.” They also call on the board to address concerns that facial recognition software can be used by “authoritarian governments to control minority populations and limit dissent could spread quickly to democratic societies.“
The letter from EPIC mentions a recent New York Times investigation of a facial recognition service used by more than 600 law enforcement agencies across the country. As the Mind Unleashed recently reported, Manhattan-based Clearview AI is collecting data from unsuspecting social media users and the Chicago Police Department (CPD) is using the controversial facial recognition tool to pinpoint the identity of unknown suspects. The Times investigation shows that the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are also using the controversial tool.
The MIT Technology Review believes EPIC’s letter is “one of the biggest efforts so far in the fight to stem the use of facial recognition technologies.“
And while these 40 organizations call on the PCLOB to make an official recommendation, there are already examples of push back against facial recognition. San Francisco and Somerville, Massachusetts recently became the first local governments to ban the use of facial recognition tools. The European Commission is also considering a ban on facial recognition in public for five years. In June 2019, the Georgetown Law Center on Privacy & Technology released a report titled “America Under Watch: Face Surveillance in the United States” which calls for a moratorium on facial recognition technology.
In June 2019, I also noted that “the editorial board of the Guardian also recently spoke out about the privacy threats, calling the technology ‘especially inaccurate and prone to bias.’ The editorial board also noted that a recent test of Amazon’s facial recognition software by the American Civil Liberties Union found that it falsely identified 28 members of Congress as known criminal.“
Whether or not the PCLOB or some other government agency chooses to take action on a moratorium on facial recognition, it is imperative that consumers begin educating themselves about the technology and take steps to protect their privacy. While we are limited in how often our faces are scanned in public, we can voluntarily opt-out of facial scanning at airports, grocery stores, and other locations.
We cannot depend on the government to protect our privacy and liberty. We must take action and guard what little privacy remains before it’s too late.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 23:00 - India Announces $40 Billion Emergency Fiscal Injection As Economy Plunges
India Announces $40 Billion Emergency Fiscal Injection As Economy Plunges
India’s economy is rapidly decelerating and could be headed for a financial crisis.
As an emergency response to plunging growth rates and falling energy consumption, along with a manufacturing hub grinding to a halt, the government has just announced a massive $40 billion fiscal injection in its budget for 2020/21 to prevent a hard landing, reported Reuters.
Emergency fiscal measures by government are typically for an economy that is in a recession or certainly headed towards one.
However, India isn’t in a recession, but growth rates are rapidly decelerating and now being referred to as “great slowdown.”
“Look at electricity generation growth, it’s falling off the bottom, and it’s never been like this ever. So this is the sense in which I would say this is not just any slowdown, this is the great slowdown that India is experiencing and we should look at it with all seriousness …and the economy seems headed for the intensive care unit,” former Indian Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian warned last month.
Economic growth in the country is expected to fall under the 5-handle this year, will be the weakest since the global financial crisis in 2008-09.
Industrial production growth is collapsing:
Business confidence is also crashing:
Subramanian also warned that as the economy stalls, corporate debt and increasing non-performing assets could produce shocks in the country’s banking sector that may lead to slower growth rates in credit, thus slowing the economy even further.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced Saturday that 2.83 trillion Indian rupees ($39.82 billion) would be allocated for agriculture, farming, alternative energy, and infrastructure projects for the 2020/21 fiscal year.
Sitharaman also said the government would spend $50.65 billion on federal water projects that provide more freshwater access to the population.
She said the increased deficit spending could pressure public finances and lead to a deficit that would widen to 3.8% of GDP, up from 3.3% from earlier estimates for the current year.
As we noted Friday, January 31, 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi rode the wave of fake GDP data from 2014 through 2017, but growth has since collapsed; he has since been heavily criticized for a slumping economy by national media
“India’s 2020/21 budget highlights the challenges to fiscal consolidation from slower real and nominal growth, which may continue for longer than the government forecasts,” said Gene Fang, Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors Service.
And what does this mean for Indian NIFTY 50 futures, well, possibly a correction from the 16.5% run-up from August.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 22:35 - Santa Cruz Just Decriminalized Magic Mushrooms In Unanimous Vote
Santa Cruz Just Decriminalized Magic Mushrooms In Unanimous Vote
Authored by John Vibes via TruthTheory.com,
The city of Santa Cruz in Central California has become the most recent municipality to decriminalize the use of psychedelic mushrooms.
This week, the measure passed The City Council of Santa Cruz with a unanimous vote to make the investigation and arrest a low priority for “the adult possession, use or cultivation of psychoactive plants and fungi.”
Councilmember Chris Krohn told ABC News that the new initiative is part of a broader plan to treat mental health in the community.
“This resolution ensures that only people 21 and over have access to these plants and the Council has given direction to our Police Department to make it a low priority infraction. Entheogenic plants offer many in our community a way out of the addictive pharmaceuticals known as opioids. People came forward at last night’s meeting telling of the beneficial effects of how these plants changed their lives,” Krohn said.
#DecriminalizeNature #SantaCruz! https://t.co/VQPETt11UK
— Decriminalize Nature (@DecrimNature) January 29, 2020
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Drew Glover, another council member who voted in favor of decriminalization, pointed to the long history of ancient cultures around the world who have “respected entheogenic plants and fungi for providing healing, knowledge, creativity and spiritual connection with nature.”
“With the passing of this resolution Santa Cruz has taken an important step in acknowledging the impact that the war on drugs has had on communities while at the same time giving people the liberty to choose how to address their medical needs, providing a potent tool to address issues like PTSD, addiction, and depression,” Glover told ABC News.
Denver was the first municipality in the United States to decriminalize possession of psychedelic mushrooms, and the organizers of that successful initiative are working to implement the same strategy in other cities and states. Similar measures have already been passed in Oakland, California, as well.
Significant progress has also been made in opening up psychedelic compounds to scientific study.
As Truth Theory reported last year, a $17 million psychedelic research center will soon be opening at John’s Hopkins University. This research center is the first of its kind in the United States, and the largest of its kind in the entire world.
Researchers at the new Johns Hopkins facility will be studying psychedelic substances and their effect on the human brain. More specifically, they will be seeking possible treatments for mental health issues like addiction, depression, PTSD, Alzheimer’s disease, eating disorders and a variety of other conditions.
The science in this field has been so convincing, that large investors are now working to develop pharmaceutical drugs derived from these compounds.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 22:10 - Lonely Japanese Billionaire Abandons Search For Space Ho After 22,000 Women Apply
Lonely Japanese Billionaire Abandons Search For Space Ho After 22,000 Women Apply
A Japanese billionaire who put out a casting call for single females to join him for a SpaceX voyage around the room has called off the search, citing “personal reasons.”
Yusaku Maezawa, 44, announced in January that he was looking for single females over the age of 20 to join him on the trip, which was set to be broadcast as part of a documentary on streaming channel, AbemaTV.
Alas, there will be no zero-G sex for Maezawa or a lucky lady.
Due to personal reasons, I have informed AbemaTV yesterday with my decision to no longer participate in the matchmaking documentary, hence requested for the cancellation of the show.
— Yusaku Maezawa (MZ) 前澤友作 (@yousuck2020) January 30, 2020
“To think that 27,722 women, with earnest intentions and courage, had used their precious time to apply makes me feel extremely remorseful to conclude and inform everyone with this selfish decision of mine,” he continued.
To think that 27,722 women, with earnest intentions and courage, had used their precious time to apply makes me feel extremely remorseful to conclude and inform everyone with this selfish decision of mine.
— Yusaku Maezawa (MZ) 前澤友作 (@yousuck2020) January 30, 2020
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Maezawa sold his online fashion retailer Zozo Inc. to Softbank last September for roughly $3.7 billion.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 21:45 - China Bloodbath: Stocks Crash; Oil, Iron Limit Down Despite Emergency PBOC Intervention, Short Sell Ban, Rate Cuts
China Bloodbath: Stocks Crash; Oil, Iron Limit Down Despite Emergency PBOC Intervention, Short Sell Ban, Rate Cuts
As previewed on Friday and again earlier today when we noted the latest trades in China’s A50 futures…
… China’s reopening from the long Lunar New Year holiday was set to be ugly, and sure enough with Chinese stocks resuming trade at 9am on Monday, a wave of selling was unleashed culminating in nothing short of a bloodbath with the Shanghai Composite crashing 9% at the open, down by the most since the bursting of China’s 2015 stock bubble, and wiping out 12 months worth of gains in a corona moment.
Not even the hilarious beat in China’s Manufacturing PMI (this time from Caixin), which somehow surpased expectations of a 51.0 print by the smallest amount possible at 51.1 (down from 51.5) despite a major portion of China’s population under quarantine and the economy hitting a brick wall, had any impact on stocks.
What is odd is that this is happening even as China earlier in the day barred short selling, which only means the central bank made a huge oversight and should have also banned all selling altogether.
As stocks collapse the flight to safety is predictably on with 10Y Chinese bond tumbling in yield to 3%, matching the lowest yield since late 2016…
… while spiking in price.
The selloff wasn’t limited just to stocks, however, with China’s benchmark iron ore contract falling by its daily limit of 8%, with copper, crude and palm oil also plunging by the maximum allowed. As Bloomberg notes, regions accounting for about 90% of copper smelting, 60% of steel production, 65% of oil refining and 40% of coal output have told firms to delay restarting operations until at least Feb. 10.
This is bad news for anyone still holding on to dreams of a Chinese economic renaissance, as the following correlation between China’s macro surprise index and copper demonstrates.
China’s bloodbath is taking place even as the PBOC scrambled earlier in the day to inject a gross 1.2 trillion in liquidity which however as we explained, was woefully inadequate because when netting off the 1 trillion in short-term reverse repo funds scheduled to mature on Monday, the liquidity injection amounted to a far more modest 150BN yuan, or just over $27BN.
The lack of any notable impact from China’s reverse repo injection probably explains why shortly after the catastrophic open, the PBOC also cut rates on both its 7 day and 14 day-reverse repo from 2.5% to 2.4%, and from 2.65% to 2.55% respectively.
Then, as a result of the unexpected additional easing, the Yuan promptly slumped back under 7.00, potentially risking the framework of the US-China trade deal, and the reversal in the US Treasury’s designation of China as a currency manipulator.
Then again, in retrospect it’s probably not accurate to say China’s emergency intervention and rate cut has had no positive impact on stocks: after all US futures have surged since the open and are up 0.7%, or 21 points, to 3,245 from Friday’s 3,223 close.
As a reminder, 3,250 is the critical gamma “flip” level which has to be sustained at all costs…
… or else any additional selling will only beget even more selling, which is certainly on the mind of whoever is buying US futs even as China is crashing.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 21:20 - Aussie Academic: 'Ethically Misguided & Downright Dangerous' NOT To Censor Climate-Deniers
Aussie Academic: ‘Ethically Misguided & Downright Dangerous’ NOT To Censor Climate-Deniers
Authored by Eric Worrall via WattsUpWithThat.com,
University of Melbourne “Centre for Advancing Journalism” academic Denis Muller believes climate censorship should be added to legally binding journalistic professional codes of conduct.
Media ‘impartiality’ on climate change is ethically misguided and downright dangerous
January 31, 2020 6.11am AEDT
Denis Muller
Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, University of MelbourneIn September 2019, the editor of The Conversation, Misha Ketchell, declared The Conversation’s editorial team in Australia was henceforth taking what he called a “zero-tolerance” approach to climate change deniers and sceptics. Their comments would be blocked and their accounts locked.
His reasons were succinct:
Climate change deniers and those shamelessly peddling pseudoscience and misinformation are perpetuating ideas that will ultimately destroy the planet.
…
But in the era of climate change, this conventional approach is out of date. A more analytical approach is called for.
…
Harm is a long-established criterion for abridging free speech. John Stuart Mill, in his seminal work, On Liberty, published in 1859, was a robust advocate for free speech but he drew the line at harm:
… the only purpose for which power can be exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others.
It follows that editors may exercise the power of refusing to publish climate-denialist material if doing so prevents harm to others, without violating fundamental free-speech principles.
Other harms too provide established grounds for limiting free speech. Some of these are enforceable at law – defamation, contempt of court, national security – but speech about climate change falls outside the law and so becomes a question of ethics.
The harms done by climate change, both at a planetary level and at the level of human health, are well-documented and supported by overwhelming scientific evidence.
…
External guidance is nonexistent. The ethical codes promulgated by the media accountability bodies – the Australian Press Council and the Australian Communications and Media Authority – make no mention of how impartiality should be achieved in the context of climate change. The Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance’s code of ethics is similarly silent.
These bodies would serve the profession and the public interest by developing specific standards to deal with the issue of climate change, and guidance about how to meet them. It is not an issue like any other. It is existential on a scale surpassing even nuclear war.
…
The problem with comparing discussion of climate change to shouting “fire” in a burning theatre is one of immediacy.
Shouting “fire” to create a fake panic in a movie cinema is punishable, because it has been amply demonstrated through experience that creating a fake panic causes immediate, measurable harm; we know through observation of past events that people can be hurt or even killed during the resulting stampede.
But a public comment disputing alarmist climate claims; not so much.
The author’s comparison of climate change to an imminent nuclear war is absurd. Climate change is a gradual process, with significant changes taking decades or even centuries to manifest.
Even if climate skeptics were totally wrong, there is no justification for shutting down our right to be wrong. Unlike shouting “fire” in a crowded theatre, no single climate “shout”, no matter how wrong, has the potential to alter the trajectory of society to such an extent that measurable harm could be ascribed to it.
If society lowers the bar of censorship to such an extent that publicly supporting a position which might be wrong but which causes no immediate harm qualifies as a punishable offence, then we have lost more than our right to free speech.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 21:20 - NYC Apartment Sales Crash To Near Decade Low As Government Suffocates Market With New Regulations
NYC Apartment Sales Crash To Near Decade Low As Government Suffocates Market With New Regulations
There’s nothing like broad overreaching government regulation to absolutely suffocate any type of market.
This is a lesson that the New York City apartment market is learning first hand, as sales of apartment buildings in the city have crashed to near decade lows after new rent rules scared investors away from buying real estate as investment and/or rental properties, according to Bloomberg.
In 2019, the value of purchases across all boroughs fell an astounding 40% to $6.91 billion, the lowest total since 2011. There were 290 multifamily deals in the year, a 36% decline and the first year with less than 300 deals since 2010.
The market ground to a halt as a result of New York’s new rent law, which affects about 1 million apartments in the city. The law makes it almost impossible for landlords to raise rents, remove units from state regulation or recoup costs of capital improvements.
The message this sent to the market? Stop spending on renovations.
And so, landlords did. They stopped buying properties altogether, as well.
Shimon Shkury, president of Ariel Property Advisers, said: “The fact that there’s no correlation between the amount you put into a building and the amount of rent you can charge has completely shifted investment interest in rent-stabilized buildings.”
In Manhattan, south of 96th street and West 110th, investors turned specifically toward non-regulated units and paid higher prices for them. More than 60% of units that were bought and sold last year were market rate and buyers paid an average of $758,217 per apartment, up 14% from 2018.
Investors who bought rent-regulated properties, on the other hand, demanded discounts.
In Queens, where about 67% of apartments sold were under these regulations, prices fell 7.7% to $276,261 per apartment. In the Bronx, the average sale price per unit also fell, from $185,006 in 2018 to $171,855 in 2018.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 20:55 - BuzzFeed Journo Reportedly Blogged About Pedo Fantasies, Rape Jokes And Doxing
BuzzFeed Journo Reportedly Blogged About Pedo Fantasies, Rape Jokes And Doxing
A BuzzFeed senior reporter who accused Zero Hedge of ‘doxing’ a Chinese scientist has reportedly left a disturbing internet footprint rife with pedophilia and rape jokes… oh, and doxing the owners of a restaurant.
Ryan Broderick, a boy-band aficionado who runs a personal tumblr blog, wrote in a Friday BuzzFeed article that Zero Hedge “has released the personal information of a scientist from Wuhan, China, falsely accusing them of creating the coronavirus as a bioweapon, in a plot it said is the real-life version of the video game Resident Evil.” (for what really happened read our response here).
After his ‘hit piece‘ was published – which included factual mistakes, no outreach to Zero Hedge, and an intentional ‘doxing’ of Zero Hedge (by their standards), the @zerohedge Twitter account was permanently suspended for violating their ‘abuse and harassment’ policy. Shortly thereafter, Broderick updated his article, writing “Zero Hedge’s Twitter account was suspended Friday, following the publication of the scientist’s name.”
Yet, while Zero Hedge republished publicly available, professional contact information for the Wuhan scientist – Broderick openly ‘doxed’ the owners of Amy’s Baking Company in 2013, tweeting a link to the private contact information of the husband and wife owners who made headlines for a controversial episode of Gordon Ramsay’s “Kitchen Nightmares.” The information included their home address, phone numbers, email addresses, and a ‘dossier’ covering the couple’s marriage and financial history.
Do the right thing, @vijaya. This is nonsensical. Indefensible.
— Ali (@ali) February 2, 2020
Somehow Broderick avoided a permanent Twitter suspension for ‘targeted harassment.’
Perhaps even more disturbing, however, are several posts uncovered on “Ryan Broderick’s Cool Time Fun Blog,” along with questionable tweets and other writings as documented by internet sleuths in the wake of our Twitter suspension. They include pedophilia, rape jokes, and more.
— The Malchemist (@realDougStew) February 2, 2020
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Maybe the first tweet isn’t a joke. He’s hashtagging “sexy boys” on Tumblrhttps://t.co/17pgwLRTIl https://t.co/JJ6iISekOi
— The Malchemist (@realDougStew) February 2, 2020
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Ah here we go. A lot of rape humor on this one. Buzzfeed doesn’t vet anyone. You just email them and you get a byline. https://t.co/me7bi6pxhj pic.twitter.com/T837wgT6DI
— The Malchemist (@realDougStew) February 2, 2020
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From his now defunct website, student loans for beer money.
Any wonder why he was targeting Zero Hedge? pic.twitter.com/xVC8VKljRi
— The Malchemist (@realDougStew) February 2, 2020
Hey @BuzzFeed, what’s up with your pro-doxing Hitler fan Ryan? pic.twitter.com/lNAf8eNmMu
— The Malchemist (@realDougStew) February 2, 2020
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https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsOne post reads “I want to be an erotic children’s photographer. I want to be the Andy Warhol of erotic children’s photography,” followed by the hashtag #It’s not porn though
A hebephile is, according to Google, an adult who has a “strong and persistent sexual interest in pubescent-aged individuals, generally aged 11–14.”
This is a @BuzzFeed reporter. https://t.co/lcbd9o0Jw8
— CJ Pearson (@thecjpearson) February 2, 2020
More insight into Broderick’s predilections can be found here, here, here, here and here.
The man who got zerohedge banned. 👇8/29/2012 pic.twitter.com/vPaW8vCxa1
— Ed ☯️ #FreeZeroHedge (@DowdEdward) February 2, 2020
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Does any of this matter? Of course not, and we are confident that Twitter will find all these outlandish public statements, doxes and tweets to be in perfectly good humor, confirming once again that when it comes to enforcing its Terms of Service, some have always been more equal than others.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 20:45 - Coronavirus: Now That It's A National Emergency, Is It "Too Late"?
Coronavirus: Now That It’s A National Emergency, Is It “Too Late”?
Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,
Late Friday, the US officially declared coronavirus a “national health emergency”.
Some are starting to claim that it’s “too late” to do anything to stop the spread of coronavirus.
Is it?
Well, even if it’s too late to stop it, we may still be able to slow the spread substantially.
The latest numbers from China may be offering our first hope of that. At ~12,000, they are our first sign the virus may no longer be spreading at a geometric rate.
China’s quarantine efforts may be starting to pay off. (Or, we may just be getting bad data. It’s simply too early to tell.)
Yes, it’s important to prepare for coronavirus to arrive in your community. That’s just prudent given what we know right now.
But don’t lose hope. We all have a role to play in limiting the damage this outbreak can cause.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 20:30 - Is Tech About To Suffer A "Dot Com" Bubble Collapse? It's Suddenly All In China's Hands
Is Tech About To Suffer A “Dot Com” Bubble Collapse? It’s Suddenly All In China’s Hands
For the past two weeks we warned readers (in Institutions, Retail And Algos Are Now All-In, Just As Buybacks Tumble and Never Before Seen Market Complacency, As Everyone Goes Even More “All In“) that we now effectively at the most overbought levels on record, with virtually every class of investors – from institutions, to retail, to systematic and algos – now all-in.
It now appears that this massive euphoria, which culminated in the biggest one-day selloff since August, may have been a tad excessive, hitting just as China was forced to admit it has a major viral epidemic on its hands (although in retrospect Ray Dalio’s Gartmanesque “cash is trash” declaration just days earlier in Davos, may have been just as powerful a catalyst for the derisking as the Coronavirus pandemic).
And nowhere was the investor euphoria more apparent than in the tech sector which, as the BofA chart below shoes, was the most overbought since dotcom bubble.
Then, on Friday, as we duly reported fears that China is losing the fight to contain the Coronavirus spread finally exploded, and sent the Dow red for the year, with the S&P 500 index now flat for 2020 as positive early results from 4Q 2019 earnings season offset the economic concerns of the coronavirus. In short, much of the euphoria that was unleashed by the Fed’s launch of QE4 in October to “fix” the repo market, coupled with central banks cutting rates as if “it’s a crisis” in the words of Bank of America…
…is now gone, and what’s worse, with the market pricing in the strongest recovery since the financial crisis…
… concerns that China’s economy may slump to a 5% or lower GDP as a result of the viral pandemic, have come at the worst possible time. And so, with the market finally cracking, suddenly panicked investors are asking if what has gone up in almost vertical fashion over the past year is about to come down.
Namely the handful of tech stocks that has been at the forefront of the S&P’s tremendous ascent: the FAAMGs.
As Goldman’s David Kostin write over the weekend, picking up where Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson left off two weeks ago, “today, the S&P 500 market cap is concentrated in the five largest stocks to a degree not witnessed since the peak of the Tech bubble. The five firms – FB, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL – collectively account for 18% of S&P 500 market cap, the largest share since 2000“…
… even as earnings are slightly less concentrated, with the top five stocks represent 14% of profits, the highest level since 2015. During the past three months, aggregate FAAMG returns have been double the S&P 500 index (19% vs. 8%) and generated 37% of the gain for the entire index during that time. And with most of tech earnings roughly unchanged over the past year, the bulk of this price increase was the direct result of multiple expansion, which in turn was made possible by a record expansion in stock buybacks among tech companies.
So with everyone casting a fearful eye to the first tech bubble in 2000, investors are understandably curious what happened back then, and are we about to witness the second coming of the dot com bubble bursting.
Here, Kostin, which has a 3,400 year-end price target understandably does everything in its power to mitigate fears that the Nasdaq is about to experience a second catastrophic plunge. Here is what Kostin writes:
Twenty years ago, the US equity market was also dominated by five stocks: MSFT, CSCO, GE, INTC, and XOM. In March 2000, these stocks accounted for 18% of total S&P 500 market cap and were priced at a substantial premium to the index. Collectively, the firms traded at a forward P/E of 47x (vs. 24x for S&P 500) and 7.3x trailing EV/sales (vs. 2.7x). The elevated valuations reflected expectations for rapid growth in aggregate earnings and sales during 2000 and 2001.
In contrast, full-year 2001 results for the five largest stocks in March 2000 came in nowhere near the lofty initial expectations. In aggregate, sales fell by 7% (vs. expectations of +15%), net margins contracted by 150 bp (from 13% to 11% vs. the original forecast of 1100 bp of margin expansion) and net income fell by 18% (vs. forecast of +14%). Three of the five firms actually realized negative sales growth in 2001 (INTC: -21%, XOM: -10%, CSCO: -24%) and three reported negative EPS growth (CSCO: -72%, INTC: -68%, XOM: -6%).
In contrast to the devastating misses suffered by the “Big Five” in 2000, Goldman claims that “lower growth expectations, lower valuations, and a greater re-investment ratio suggest the current concentration may be more sustainable than it proved to be in 2000.” To underscore this point, Goldman shows the following chart according to which valuations of the five largest companies now are far more manageable compared to 2000.
But as even Goldman admits, “in order to avoid repeating the share price collapse experienced by their predecessors, today’s market cap leaders will need to at least meet – and preferably exceed – current consensus growth expectations,” which, however, “seem more achievable based on recent results and management guidance. In aggregate, consensus expects a 100 bp sales growth deceleration (from 15% in 2020 to 14% in 2021), a 20 bp margin expansion (19.5% to 19.7%), and a 600 bp EPS growth acceleration (10% to 16%).”
The good news is that at least for now, these market titans have not disappointed, as Bloomberg pointed out in “Like It or Not, Trillion-Dollar Titans Lived Up to Earnings Hype.” Indeed, four of the five FAAMG stocks reported 4Q 2019 results this week, which generally came in stronger than expected:
- Apple reported a revenue and EPS beat, with quarterly revenues of $92 billion (+9% vs. the year-ago quarter) beating consensus by 4% as demand for iPhones and wearables better than expected. Subscriptions came in ahead of schedule, despite a deceleration in services revenue growth to 17% year/year.
- Microsoft posted positive results across every segment. Sales grew by 14% year/year and executives affirmed guidance for continued double-digit growth in 2020. Consensus estimates currently forecast 12% sales growth and 11% EPS growth in 2020 and 12% and 14%, respectively, in 2021.
- FB reported strong 4Q results across almost every financial metric. Overall revenues jumped by 25% to $21 billion. While ad revenue beat for the fifth consecutive quarter, slowing growth in mature markets led to some investor concern.
- AMZN’s Thursday report was the best of the FAAMG lot. The company reported 4Q revenues of $87 billion (+21%), above consensus forecasts, and AMZN exceeded the high-end of its revenue guidance for the first time since 1Q 2018.
Yet while the market leaders did not disappoint in the last quarter of 2019 when stocks exploded higher with the blessing of the Fed’s QE4, what about the current quarter and the future? What happens to revenues and demand, to established supply chains, to profit margins, if the Coronavirus epidemic keep spreading and tens of millions of Chinese remain under quarantine? What happens to Apple’s iPhone sales in China if the Cupertino company is unable to reopen its store for a month, or two, or three? What happens to the already depressed global auto industry if Chinese part-makers can’t transport their parts to their core customers? What happens to China’s financial system if the local banking sector is suddenly paralyzed as the great unknown of how the pandemic will impact the Chinese economy spreads?
One thing is certain: with the tech sector priced to perfection, and with multiples of the IT sector at the highest level since the dot com bubble, and the tech setor the most overbought relative to the broader S&P500…
… anything less than perfection could lead to a violent selloff among the massively overbought handful of tech names that have led the market for much of the past year.
As such, it’s suddenly up to China to make sure the FAAMGs in particular, and the tech sector, and S&P500 in general, can sustain the lofty ascent that Donald Trump demands to ensure his reelection in November. That, however, may be a big ask as the NYT writes in “China Kept World in Dark as Outbreak Rippled” because, well, why would China have to keep the world in the dark if indeed the situation was contained, or containable? And one lack at the recent action in the NYSE FANG index…
… indicates that traders are increasingly starting to wonder if the mega tech party was finally ended, not by a black swan, but a black bat…
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 20:05 - Coronavirus Is 'Probably Nothing', But "It's Possibly Everything" For Global Markets
Coronavirus Is ‘Probably Nothing’, But “It’s Possibly Everything” For Global Markets
Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,
In 1349, when Black Death was ravaging Europe, many of the day’s best and brightest banded together in pursuit of a common cure. They had little choice. Black Death was rapidly spreading across the continent. Nothing could stop it.
Boils were lanced with precision. Blood was let with vigor. But there was no escape from the plague’s instant death. It was efficient. It was relentless. People would go to bed at night perfectly healthy; by morning, they’d wake up perfectly dead.
Then, at the exact moment of maximum death and despair, flagellants came to the rescue. Processions marched to and fro, seeking relief through forcefully whipping themselves in public displays of self-mutilation. According to the History Channel:
“Some upper-class men joined processions of flagellants that traveled from town to town and engaged in public displays of penance and punishment: They would beat themselves and one another with heavy leather straps studded with sharp pieces of metal while the townspeople looked on.
“For 33 1/2 days, the flagellants repeated this ritual three times a day. Then they would move on to the next town and begin the process over again.”
This may seem strange, weird, and, quite frankly, a bit nuts. But something miraculous happened. The Black Death epidemic soon exhausted itself. The flagellants saved Europe from the mid-14th century onslaught of Black Death.
Or did they?
Probably Nothing, Possibly Everything
To be clear, flagellants had no influence on the eventual relenting of Black Death. Remember, correlation does not imply causation. Post hoc ergo propter hoc – “after this, therefore because of this” – or simply the post hoc fallacy, recognizes that just because one event happened to follow another, doesn’t mean the initial event caused the later event to occur.
The example of flagellants stopping the plague is absurd. Still, we present it to underscore several points:
(1) Humans are often irrational, especially during times of crisis, and
(2) Mis-assigning causation is a common appeal to ignorance, especially when it comes to modern day economics analysis.
One popular tactic of central planners, for example, is to point to an economic statistic – like low unemployment – and self-adulate for maneuvering it down. Does pumping fake money into credit markets somehow create jobs? Does pumping fake money into credit markets somehow create wealth and prosperity?
Similarly, when the yield curve inverts and the economy stalls, central planners always scratch for a convenient culprit. Last fall, when the economy slipped, the trade war with China was to blame. Now it’s the Chinese coronavirus. Jeffrey P. Snider, at Alhambra Investments, offers the following insight:
“The mainstream needs to blame something and given how convenient the timing between ‘protectionism’ and the ‘unexpected’ appearance of this globally synchronized downturn should the latter flame back up again, having never really been extinguished, China easily provides the next scapegoat (wouldn’t it be ironic if the virus was found to have jumped from goats to humans?)”
At this point, it’s still too early to tell. China’s coronavirus, like past outbreaks of the bird flu or SARS, is probably nothing. But it’s possibly everything.
How Xi Jinping will Save the World from Coronavirus
You see, every bubble eventually finds its pin. Perhaps coronavirus is the pin that the twin stock and bond market bubbles have elegantly eluded over the last decade. If not, it should be.
By this, coronavirus would not be the cause of a bear market and economic recession. It would merely mark a coincidental turning point. One that could have been marked by a whole host of potential triggers over the course of many years.
The experience of the last decade, however, is that the coronavirus is probably nothing. Certainly, if central banks are being called on to save us from melting glaciers, a determined central bank can paper over coronavirus, right?
Indeed, complacency still reigns. The question, at the moment, is not whether the stock market bubble is bursting. But, rather, should you buy the dip?
The repeat lessons of the past decade are that you should definitely buy the dip. The yield curve may be inverting for the first time since October. But if this is a signal the Fed will be pumping more fake money, maybe, once again, it’s bullish for the S&P 500.
In the meantime, one thing is crystal clear. China’s lunar new year holiday has been ruined. And Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader, is mad. He also recently distilled the coronavirus challenge down to a bite sized nugget:
“The epidemic is a devil. We cannot let the devil hide.”
Should this escalate to full pandemic, Mr. Xi will be compelled to join a procession of flagellants in Beijing; he’ll flog himself silly to rid the world of the coronavirus.
This has worked before. It’ll work again.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 19:40 - The One Number That Could Reveal A Chinese Coronavirus Cover-Up
The One Number That Could Reveal A Chinese Coronavirus Cover-Up
Submitted by Chris Irons of Quoth the Raven Research – Twitter: @QTRResearch – Podcast
The Wuhan coronavirus continues to wreak havoc across the globe. It caused a 600 point sell off in the Dow Jones on Friday, prompted the first U.S. quarantine in a half century and has resulted in various travel bans around the globe. Famously, even tourist “hot spot” Iraq doesn’t want Chinese citizens coming into the country.
In addition, it appears as though the numbers coming out of Hubei province are accelerating, with the area reporting 1,921 new cases and 45 new deaths as of Saturday night.
Yes, I already saw the numbers and put them in a graph!! This is MUCH higher than any previous report from the Province of Hubei, the epicenter of #Wuhan #Coronavirus. Very alarming! Starting to get out of control now! pic.twitter.com/C9bVMWc5f9
— GHoeberX (@ghoeberx) February 1, 2020
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While I am not going to comment about various theories regarding the viruses origin that have been circulating the internet, I will say that these reactions to the virus have all been (mostly) to numbers provided to us by the Chinese government.
The skepticism around the Chinese government’s data comes as no surprise to me. I have spent more than a half decade researching U.S. listed China based companies and working daily and directly with Chinese nationals to uncover fraud being perpetuated on American capital markets.
The research of our firm and the story of our firm’s partner, Dan David, was featured in a documentary called The China Hustle that was produced by Academy Award winner Alex Gibney and backed by Mark Cuban’s film company, Magnolia Pictures. While not an expert, I consider myself to have a better understanding of the ethos coming out of the country than most people.
And in my opinion, I believe people should harbor a skeptical opinion of anything that comes out of the Chinese government.
So, what data am I looking at to try and verify or contradict China’s claims? I’m watching the fatality rate outside of China. As of right now, the fatality rate of about 2% (NY Times says “less than 3%”), according to China’s numbers, is often cited as reason not to worry about the virus. Let us first remember that the normal flu has a fatality rate of about 0.4%, which makes the Wuhan coronavirus far more lethal. It also spreads quicker.
Chart provided by NY Times For these reasons, I am frightened by the amount of people writing this outbreak off with direct comparisons to the normal flu. I am also alarmed by the consistent travel in and out of China that has been occurring while the U.S. government has dragged its feet in suspending flights.
“China has about four times as many train and air passengers as it did during the SARS outbreak,” the New York Times commented. The number of people affected has already skyrocketed past the SARS outbreak.
Chart provided by NY Times If the numbers coming out of China are being altered, the international fatality rate should tip us off to it. As the data set of infections outside of China continues to grow and inevitable fatalities are reported (even at a ~2% clip, it is inevitable), we should be able to gauge for ourselves whether the data we have been using from China has, in fact, been accurate.
The World Health Organization praised China during their press conference last Thursday for taking unprecedented measures to quarantine the country. In my opinion and based solely on action/reaction common sense, the measures being taken in China – quarantining 50 million people in over a dozen major cities – does not match up with the numbers that we have been given by the government.
Certainly, unconfirmed posts that continue to surface on Twitter and other social media sites paint a far more dire picture than the numbers appear to be showing.
Bilingual titles added. 8 bodies in 5 minutes! More are lying inside to be moved out. Somebody secretly shot this video from No. 3 Hopital in #Wuhan during #coronarovirus #武汉肺炎
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某網友秘訪武漢第三醫院，五分钟功夫就見到八具屍體拉走去火化場，而且里面还有。 pic.twitter.com/VBS6U7HIWW— 曾錚 Jennifer Zeng (@jenniferatntd) February 1, 2020
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The potential consequences of finding out that the numbers coming out of China are suppressed could be meaningful. It could put the story much deeper into the mainstream media and have a profound effect on capital markets and the behavioral psychology of people living outside of China.
As a reminder, despite the government saying that the risks of outbreak are low outside of China, I’ll remind readers that it costs nothing to take extra precautions by stocking simple items that you will eventually go through even if an outbreak outside of China doesn’t happen.
These items include extra laundry detergent, N95 or N100 facemasks, 30 days worth of food supplies, disinfectant wipes and sprays, cold medicine to mitigate potential symptoms, hand sanitizer (or some type of anti-septic), latex gloves and even goggles and tyvek suits. There are several checklists on the internet, like this one, that can be valuable for those looking to take some extra precautions.
Let’s see what the numbers continue to tell us in coming days.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 19:15 - Oil Crashes Into Bear Market As Chinese Oil Demand Said To Plummet 20% Due To Coronavirus "Demand Shock"
Oil Crashes Into Bear Market As Chinese Oil Demand Said To Plummet 20% Due To Coronavirus “Demand Shock”
While the world awaits with bated breath the clobbering that awaits Chinese assets when they reopen in a few hours after the Lunar New Year with the PBOC set to injects billions to prop up stocks while banning short selling as reported earlier, moments ago we got a dismal advance look at just how dire the impact on both the Chinese, and global, economies will be as a result of the coronavirus.
According to Bloomberg, Chinese oil demand has dropped by about three million barrels a day, or 20% of total consumption, as a result of the creeping economic paralysis unleashed by the coronavirus epidemic. The drop is said to be the largest demand shock the oil market has suffered since the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, and the most sudden since the Sept. 11 attacks. More importantly, the plunge in Chinese demand will likely force the hand of the OPEC cartel, which is already considering an emergency meeting to cut production and staunch the decline in prices (and to which one can only say that Saudi Arabia picked its Aramco IPO window exquisitely).
Chinese and Western oil executives, speaking on condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said the decline was measured against normal levels for this time of year. It’s a measure of the current loss in demand, rather than the average loss since the crisis started, which would be smaller.
As a reminder, in 2016 China surpassed the US as the world’s largest oil importer (which in turn, has become energy independent in recent years, as a result of an explosion of shale oil production, at least until the day of reckoning for all those junk bonds keeping the US shale industry finally comes), and is the world’s marginal oil price setter, so any changes in consumption have an outsize impact on the global energy market.
The country consumes about 14 million barrels a day – equivalent to the combined needs of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K., Japan and South Korea. Or rather consumed, as that number is now about 2 million barrels per day less.
Predictably, the plunge in Chinese oil demand is already reverberate across the global energy market, with sales of some crudes slowing to a crawl, tanker rates crashing and benchmark prices in free-fall, with Friday closing price about 14% lower since Jan 20 when the world first started focusing on the China pandemic… a free fall which only accelerated after the Bloomberg report which sent Brent tumbling on Sunday night, and which has just entered bear market territory, plunging over 22% since its January 8 peak.
Sales of Latin American oil cargoes to China came to a halt last week, while sales of West African crude, a traditional source for Chinese refineries, are also slower than usual, traders said.
Meanwhile, as Bloomberg reports, Chinese refineries are storing unsold petroleum products such as gasoline and jet-fuel, but every day stockpiles are growing, and some refineries may soon reach their storage limits. If that were to happen, they would have to cut the amount of crude they process. One executive said that refinery runs were likely to be cut soon by 15-20%.
In response to the collapse in Chinese demand, OPEC and Russia are weighing options to respond to the crisis and there have been discussions about calling an emergency meeting. Saudi Arabia is pressing for a gathering sooner than the one scheduled for March 5-6, though it has run into resistance from Russia. As Bloomberg notes, the Saudi and Russian oil ministers spoke on the phone for an hour on Thursday and another 30 minutes on Friday, according to Russians officials. For now, OPEC has called a technical meeting this week to assess the situation, and the Joint Technical Committee will report back to ministers.
“Nothing concentrates a producer’s mind more than the prospect of a crude oil price bust,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, and a former White House oil official under President George W. Bush.
And judging by where Brent is trading now, having plunged into a bear market in just three weeks, the producers will be very, very concentrated.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 18:48 - "I Felt Like I Was In Hell" – NYT Exposes Rampant Sexism, Harassment & "Toxic Masculinity" At Victoria's Secret
“I Felt Like I Was In Hell” – NYT Exposes Rampant Sexism, Harassment & “Toxic Masculinity” At Victoria’s Secret
The reaction that L Brands shareholders displayed last week following reports that Les Wexner was planning to sell Victoria’s Secret and step down from leading the parent company is all readers really need to know when it comes to Wexner’s legacy.
As the founder and CEO of L Brands, Wexner took Victoria’s Secret, a brand he bought in 1980 for a million dollars and transformed it into a multibillion dollar juggernaut in women’s fashion. But years of tepid sales, combined with the cancellation of the VS fashion show and the canning of longtime marketing chief Ed Razek last August were harbingers of more change to come. And after Wexner’s name was once again dragged through the mud thanks to his status as a key enabler of former protege Jeffrey Epstein (with whispers that his conduct as Epstein’s biggest financial benefactor might even have verged on criminal), it seemed obvious that the man who once ruled the company from a position of untouchable strength had finally lost the confidence of the board, and – more importantly – of its investors.
When news of the pending sale of VS and Wexner’s plan for retirement hit the tape last week, some wondered about the timing, seeing as the company’s earnings report isn’t due for another three-and-a-half weeks.
Well, a report published Saturday by the New York Times might offer a few clues. After four Times reporters interviewed more than two dozen former models and employees, the paper put together a #MeToo-style expose revealing allegations of abusive behavior by top executives – behavior that Wexner was aware of, and which he openly condoned.
But rampant sexism and a culture that protected bullies and sex pests weren’t Wexner’s only shortcomings, according to NYT. He also rebuffed and punished executives who tried to steer Victoria’s Secret in a more progressive and contemporary direction – for example, executives who suggested selling underwear that could actually fit American women.
Six current and former executives said in interviews that when they tried to steer the company away from what one called its “porny” image, they were rebuffed. Three said they had been driven out of the company.
Criticism of Victoria’s Secret’s anachronistic marketing went viral in 2018 when Mr. Razek expressed no interest in casting plus-size and “transsexual” models in the fashion show.
When it came to depredations targeting models, Razek showed no qualms about flexing his power and leverage to try and push models to date him.
He also clearly allowed Epstein to portray himself as an executive at the company as a ruse to meet with models.
“I had spent all of my savings getting Victoria’s Secret lingerie to prepare for what I thought would be my audition,” a woman identified as Jane Doe said in a statement read aloud last summer in a federal court hearing in the Epstein case. “But instead it seemed like a casting call for prostitution. I felt like I was in hell.”
Razek left the company in August, just before the company cancelled the Victoria’s Secret fashion show. But the blame for his behavior ultimately falls on Wexner, an executive who clearly had no qualms about enabling abusers, especially when their victims were minors and/or women.
“With the exception of Les, I’ve been with L Brands longer than anyone,” Mr. Razek wrote to employees in August when he announced he was leaving the company he had joined in 1983.
Mr. Razek was instrumental in selecting the brand’s supermodels – known as “Angels” and bestowed with enormous, feathery wings – and in creating the company’s macho TV ads.
But his biggest legacy was the annual fashion show, which became a global cultural phenomenon.
“That’s really where he sunk his teeth into the business,” said Cynthia Fedus-Fields, the former chief executive of the Victoria’s Secret division responsible for its catalog. By 2000, she said, Mr. Razek had grown so powerful that “he spoke for Les.”
Wexner was also portrayed as behind the times, particularly where his views on the ‘body positive’ movement were concerned
In March, at a meeting at Victoria’s Secret headquarters in Columbus, Ohio, an employee asked Mr. Wexner what he thought about the retail industry’s embrace of different body types. He was dismissive.
“Nobody goes to a plastic surgeon and says, ‘Make me fat'” Mr. Wexner replied, according to two attendees.
Razek would sometimes directly remind models that he could make or break their careers.
Mr. Razek often reminded models that their careers were in his hands, according to models and current and former executives who heard his remarks.
Alyssa Miller, who had been an occasional Victoria’s Secret model, described Mr. Razek as someone who exuded “toxic masculinity.” She summed up his attitude as: “I am the holder of the power. I can make you or break you.”
He would sometimes pester models for their phone numbers while they were standing around in VS lingerie. He also showed a preference for young, typically barely legal models.
At castings, Mr. Razek sometimes asked models in their bras and underwear for their phone numbers, according to three people who witnessed his advances. He urged others to sit on his lap. Two models said he had asked them to have private dinners with him.
One was Ms. Muise. In 2007, after two years of wearing the coveted angel wings in the Victoria’s Secret runway show, the 19-year-old was invited to dinner with Mr. Razek. She was excited to cultivate a professional relationship with one of the fashion industry’s most powerful men, she said.
Mr. Razek picked her up in a chauffeured car. On the way to the restaurant, he tried to kiss her, she said. Ms. Muise rebuffed him; Mr. Razek persisted.
For months, he sent her intimate emails, which The Times reviewed. At one point he suggested they move in together in his house in Turks and Caicos. Another time, he urged Ms. Muise to help him find a home in the Dominican Republic for them to share.
“I need someplace sexy to take you!” he wrote.
Ms. Muise maintained a polite tone in her emails, trying to protect her career. When Mr. Razek asked her to come to his New York home for dinner, Ms. Muise said the prospect of dining alone with Mr. Razek made her uneasy; she skipped the dinner.
She soon learned that for the first time in four years, Victoria’s Secret had not picked her for its 2008 fashion show.
One incident reported by the NYT is particularly cringe-worthy: Razek allegedly made a lewd comment about supermodel Bella Hadid’s “titties”, and whether they would meet TV standards, right in front of the influential model and her team.
In 2018, at a fitting ahead of the fashion show, the supermodel Bella Hadid was being measured for underwear that would meet broadcast standards. Mr. Razek sat on a couch, watching.
“Forget the panties,” he declared, according to three people who were there and a fourth who was told about it. The bigger question, he said, was whether the TV network would let Ms. Hadid walk “down the runway with those perfect titties.” (One witness remembered Mr. Razek using the word “breasts,” not “titties.”)
At the same fitting, Mr. Razek placed his hand on another model’s underwear-clad crotch, three people said.
And with that, the same newspaper that helped launch the #MeToo movement has claimed another scalp in its crusade to rework American culture in accordance with its progressive, ‘body positive’ agenda. The age of Wexner and Razek at L Brands has ended. What’s next? Only time will tell.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 18:25 - Baby Boomers Paid A 6.6x PE For The S&P In 1982. Millennials Have To Pay 31x
Baby Boomers Paid A 6.6x PE For The S&P In 1982. Millennials Have To Pay 31x
Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
“Let’s start with what I’d tell a 25-year-old to not do with investment capital,” answered the CIO. He’d been asked how our youth should invest for 10-15yrs.
“I’d tell them to not blindly follow their parents and grandparents as they pay ever higher multiples for a shrinking pool of equity assets,” he continued.
In 1982 when Baby Boomers were coming of age, they paid a 6.6x Shiller price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. By 1990 when the median Baby Boomer was 35-years-old, they had bid the Shiller PE to 16.5x. That same year, Baby Boomers owned 33% of all US real estate assets by value. Fast forward to 2020, the median Millennial is 31-years-old and they own just 4% of US real estate assets. If they scrape together a few bucks after paying down student loans, they must pay a 31.3x Shiller PE multiple to buy the S&P 500.
“To win a game, play to your strengths, exploit your opponent’s weakness,” said the CIO. “As people age their creativity slips away. Their imagination withers. Their risk appetite fades. Their ambition dwindles. Their drive slides. And this leaves them incapable of reimagining the world, let alone building that future,” he said.
“But as people age, they do accumulate capital. And recognizing that this is their only remaining competitive advantage, they unsurprisingly lobby for policies that enhance its value.”
Baby Boomers are the wealthiest cohort in all human history. They’ve shifted the game’s rules to entrench their interests. Which has both limited competition for their companies and artificially shrunk the pool of investable equity assets.
“There’s too much capital in the world today relative to too few equity assets. 25-year-olds should not pay a 31.3x Shiller PE to buy their grandparent’s equities. They should play to their strengths and fight to build new companies that unseat established ones. Creating new equity assets to ease the acute shortage.”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 18:00 - Kerry Denies 'Fu*king False' Report He May Run For President
Kerry Denies ‘Fu*king False’ Report He May Run For President
Former Secretary of State John Kerry – who has been stumping for fellow ‘Burisma Dad’ Joe Biden, denied a NBC News report that he was overheard on Sunday at a Des Moines hotel explaining what he would have to do in order to run for president in 2020 amid “the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic Party — down whole.“
“I am absolutely not running for President,” said Kerry on Sunday in a now-deleted tweet, adding “Any report otherwise is fucking (or categorically) false. I’ve been proud to campaign with my good friend Joe Biden, who is going to win the nomination, beat Trump, and make an outstanding president.”
According to NBC News, “Sitting in the lobby restaurant of the Renaissance Savery hotel, Kerry was overheard by an NBC News analyst saying “maybe I’m f—ing deluding myself here” and explaining that in order to run, he’d have to step down from the board of Bank of America and give up his ability to make paid speeches. Kerry said donors like venture capitalist Doug Hickey would have to “raise a couple of million,” adding that such donors “now have the reality of Bernie.”
Kerry, as he Tweeted, told NBC that he was “absolutely not” considering joining the Democratic primary race.
He later retweeted a cleaner version:
John Kerry just fucking deleted a message and reposted a cleaner version pic.twitter.com/G3fJJ8qfNN
— Mathieu von Rohr (@mathieuvonrohr) February 2, 2020
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Of note, both Biden and Kerry’s sons are connected to the infamously corrupt Ukrainian company Burisma holdings – with Hunter Biden having sat on its board along with Devon Archer – the two of whom co-owned $2.4 billion private equity firm Rosemont Seneca with Kerry’s stepson Christopher Heinz. Heinz reportedly cut ties with Archer and Biden over poor optics.
Kerry was the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, losing to President George W. Bush. He got 251 electoral votes, compared to Bush’s 286.
Kerry has served as one of the former vice president’s top surrogates in the 2020 race. Biden holds a less than 4-point lead over Sanders in the RealClearPolitics average of national Democratic primary polls but trails the Vermont senator in the Iowa and New Hampshire polling averages. –NBC News
“I’d be a liar if I didn’t say I don’t come out here and have fun and your juices don’t get going,” Kerry said, when asked in January about whether he regrets not joining the 2020 race. “But right now, they’re entirely focused on helping Joe Biden become president, and I’m very happy doing what I’m doing.”
Tehran John considering running😉🤣…
On a positive note if he’s busy running he won’t have time to do Iran’s bidding. https://t.co/4wpW7fBg9S
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) February 2, 2020
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 17:35 - 3rd Patient Tested For Coronavirus In New York As Pandemic Kills 362, With 17,388 Infected: Live Updates
3rd Patient Tested For Coronavirus In New York As Pandemic Kills 362, With 17,388 Infected: Live Updates
Summary:
- There are currently 17,388 confirmed cases worldwide according to the latest data out of China’s CDC, and 362 global fatalities
- Two confirmed cases have been reported in San Benito County in Northern California
- (including the first death outside of China, reported in the Philippines).
- China’s central bank will pump 150 billion yuan ($21.7 billion) into markets, and has banned short selling on Monday to prevent a sell-off.
- First death outside China recorded in the Philippines
- 24 countries reporting cases
- Philippines, New Zealand join list of countries several restricting travelers from China
- 36 French citizens evacuated from Wuhan show coronavirus symptoms.
* * *
Update (2145ET): The potential coronavirus infection count in New York City has risen to three: that is how many people are currently being tested for coronavirus, according to the Health Department cited by ABC. The Health Department reports the patient has been hospitalized in New York Presbyterian-Queens, and is in stable condition.
As we reported yesterday, late on Saturday a person under 40 years old, who had spent time in mainland China, arrived in the city on Thursday and called 911 on Friday after feeling symptoms. Then, early on Sunday, a 60-year-old who displayed fever symptoms and shortness of breath was hospitalized at Flushing Hopsital Medical Center.
Officials say the patient being tested for coronavirus in New York City did everything right, and if that patient tests positive, the health department is ready to react.
“The symptoms were fever, cough and a runny nose. Like that simple. And they did the right thing for everybody else by coming in and getting care,” said NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot, who added that an ambulance brought the patient to Bellevue Hospital.
Mayor Bill de Blasio said the patient did “exactly as they should have” by following the guidelines that New York City put out.
“Our radar’s always set high, so we can screen these patients to stop it from affecting other people,” said Patricia Tennill of Bellevue Hospital.
Officials report the testing will take 36-48 hours and depends on CDC testing capacity. The patient is currently stable.
* * *
Update (1935ET): A second person is now under observation for coronavirus in New York City according to PIX11 News. The individual, hospitalized at Flushing Hospital Medical Center, is over 60 years old and is reportedly in stable condition.
This means they had recently been in mainland China and presented with fever and cough or shortness of breath without another common cause, like influenza and other cold viruses, identified on testing. @PIX11News
— Cristian Benavides (@cbenavidesTV) February 3, 2020
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Meanwhile, two confirmed cases were reported in Northern San Benito County located in northern California, a husband and wife who are both 57 years old. The husband recently traveled to Wuhan, China while the wife has not. Neither have left their home since the husband returned.
Two confirmed cases of Coronavirus in San Benito County. The confirmed cases are related; husband and wife, and both are 57 years of age. The husband recently traveled from Wuhan, China the wife did not. Both patients have not left their home since returning from China. pic.twitter.com/MZlmX3rcwx
— Christopher Salas (@KSBWChristopher) February 3, 2020
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* * *
Update (1900ET): According to the latest daily update from the Chinese CDC, there are now 17,205 confirmed cases across China, a jump of 2,829 overnight – the biggest daily increase since the epidemic started – with another 181 cases abroad. Global fatalities increased to 362, with the daily increase of 58 also the biggest since the pandemic started, although as noted previously, China has been resorting to various measures to mask and hide the true number of corona casualties. The number of cured or discharged patients rose to 475.
Unfortunately, the disease does not appears to be slowing down, and the number of suspected cases increased by 2,004 to 21,558, while the number of people receiving medical observations surged to a record 152,700, an increase of 15,106 overnight.
* * *
Update (1700ET): Santa Clara County health officials on Sunday afternoon have confirmed a second coronavirus case, reported KRON 4 News. Officials said this is unrelated to the first case that was confirmed on Friday.
The confirmed case is a woman who recently traveled to Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak. Officials have so far said, she arrived in the U.S. on Jan. 23 to visit family during the Chinese New Year.
Officials are unclear on her exact movements and how many people she could have infected. Her family was also quarantined on concerns they have contracted the deadly virus. The first case was confirmed in Santa Clara County on Friday, was a man who recently traveled to Wuhan.
This is the ninth confirmed case in the U.S., with cases expected to rise in the days and or weeks ahead.
And earlier on Sunday, The New York Times sparked more fears when it said that the coronavirus “looks increasingly like a pandemic…“
“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. “But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
* * *
Update (1500ET): According to AFP, 20 French citizens evacuated from Wuhan, China have symptoms of Coronavirus. Earlier in the day, officials said that when the flight left Wuhan, none of the passengers had symptoms of coronavirus. They include French, Belgians, Dutch, Danes, Czechs, Slovaks and some citizens of African countries, the Associated Press reported. The happens as around 500 people, including hospital staff, form a human chain in front of the Robert Debré Hospital in Paris to denounce a lack of resources in French public hospitals.
VIDEO: 🇫🇷 Around 500 people, including hospital staff, form a human chain in front of the Robert Debré Hospital in Paris to denounce a lack of resources in French public hospitals pic.twitter.com/r2IlukbvxL
— AFP news agency (@AFP) February 2, 2020
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Meanwhile, WBZ reports that two plans from Wuhan landed at Boston’s Logan airport just hours before the nationwide travel ban on flights landing from China is set to begin.
At the same time, half way across the world, Beijing has reported that between Feb 1 and Feb 2, at least 23 new coronavirus cases have been confirmed, the biggest increase to date, bringint the total number to 191.
In other news, according to an unconfirmed report citing TV Peru, a 72-year-old Peruvian woman died from coronavirus in Los Angeles, and his body was repatriated to Peru. According to the death certificate, the cause of his death is the deadly virus of Chinese origin that triggered pneumonia and other complications in his health.
According to the doctor Marco Almeri, the transfer of the body will not generate any type of epidemic. “When a body dies it changes the temperature and all the chemical conditions. Therefore, it is impossible for the virus to survive, ”he told TV Peru.
AS previously reported, US flights carrying citizens who visited China will be redirected to one of seven international airports to be screened for possible coronavirus symptoms, as part of new restrictions to stem the outbreak. Flights will only land in Atlanta, Chicago, Honolulu, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Seattle, the DHS said. Once on the ground, passengers will be subject to enhanced health screening.
Finally, according to Reuters, Russian railways has suspended passenger trains to China as the entire world gradually implement a Chinese quarantine.
* * *
Update (1100ET): In a report that has since been deleted from the Chinese Internet, Chinese media company Caijing reported that many deaths and suspected cases of the virus haven’t been counted due to intentional mislabeling, according to Bloomberg.
Many people suspected of being sick with the coronavirus in Wuhan aren’t being counted as having been infected, and some suspicious deaths haven’t been checked and included in the death toll due to a shortage of tests, according to Caijing, a Chinese media company. The Saturday report was deleted from the internet Sunday. The deaths were recorded as due to viral pneumonia and not pneumonia caused by the coronavirus, Caijing wrote.
An unidentified doctor from a Wuhan hospital designated for coronavirus treatment said that they have admitted about 600 severe cases, but none of these patients were confirmed as having coronavirus due to a lack of tests.
Meanwhile, there are whispers that the regime is quietly cremating the bodies of some deceased patients to hide them from the official death toll.
Hong Kong’s executive council has also reportedly hinted at tighter travel curbs.
A Hong Kong executive council member said that residents should avoid traveling to the mainland or risk having difficulties returning to the city, according to an RTHK report, a sign the government could ramp up border control restrictions. Lam Ching-choi said on Sunday that possible measures include shortening opening times for ports, limiting transportation and introducing laws to curb cross border traffic, the report said.
This after health-care workers threatened to strike if the city refused to shut down travel to Beijing.
* * *
Local officials in Hubei weren’t kidding when they warned that Saturday would be the worst day so far for confirmed cases/deaths related to the coronavirus outbreak. China’s body count climbed above 300, and the first death outside the mainland was recorded in the Philippines. Scientists predict that exponentially more cases are active in China, but the true number either haven’t yet been diagnosed, or the Chinese government is simply suppressing it for obvious PR purposes. Anecdotal reports also claim the death toll is higher than the 304+.
Even though the man who died in Manila was from Wuhan, now that the virus has proved lethal outside the confines of China’s deeply overburdened health-care system, even more countries have decided to defy the WHO and restrict entry for travelers from China. New Zealand, Iraq, Indonesia and the Philippines have joined the growing list of countries – including the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, Taiwan, etc. – who are imposing travel restrictions on people who have either recently been to China, or recently traveled to Hubei Province (or if they have a passport from Hubei).
“This is the first reported death outside China,” Rabindra Abeyasinghe, the World Health Organisation representative to the Philippines, said.
But that wasn’t all we heard from the WHO on Sunday. The organization, which just declared the outbreak a dangerous global pandemic, warned governments around the world to prepare for controlling domestic outbreaks.
“Countries need to get ready for possible importation in order to identify cases as early as possible and in order to be ready for a domestic outbreak control, if that happens,” WHO official Gauden Galea told The Associated Press in Bejing on Saturday.
Though the virus is the enemy, the people who carry it are also often treated with suspicion during outbreaks, and it appears this trend has finally peaked both inside and outside China. Two days ago, the New York Times published a story documenting what it described as ‘growing xenophobia’ in Japan, directed at Chinese whom locals feared might carry the virus. Inside China, videos have shown mobs surrounding families from Hubei. Government propaganda has directed a large swath of the country to stay inside until the outbreak subsides. It could be weeks before that happened. Businesses inside China have posted signs warning people from Hubei to stay away; in Japan and Hong Kong, signs are directed at all mainlanders.
Across China, the total number of cases under observation is now a whopping 137,594, an increase of over 19,000 from 118,478.
Outside China, the WHO reports roughly 130 confirmed cases of the virus in more than 20 countries outside of China and Taiwan. The Philippines reported the first death attributable to the virus outside of China. Other tallies put the number of confirmed cases outside China higher. Late Saturday in the US, new cases were confirmed in South Korea and India.
Chinese doctors are now claiming that the virus can be spread via fecal matter, as well as droplets passed through the air.
Expecting a bloodbath when markets open tomorrow (late Sunday evening in the US), Chinese financial regulators have already announced a massive $173 billion (Rmb1.2 trillion) support package. According to the FT, China’s central bank said on Sunday that it would provide the lending facilities to money markets as stock markets reopen following the LNY extended holiday, during which western markets logged heavy selling. Hong Kong markets also took a beating when they reopened for the second half of the week. BBG noted that the sum will come to $21 billion on a net basis, practically nothing, after covering the roll of previous liquidity injections.
The Huoshenshan Hospital, one of two hospitals being rapidly constructed in Wuhan, has finished construction, according to Chinese state media. It will begin admitting coronavirus patients on Monday, hopefully relieving some of the overwhelming burden on the city’s existing medical infrastructure. The Global Times reported that the hospital will be run by Huawei’s “remote consultation platform” which will improve efficiency. Nearly 2,000 PLA personnel are reportedly being dispatched to run a hospital that reportedly has been outfitted with what appear to be jail cells.
Wuhan #Huoshenshan Hospital has finished construction and will admit #coronavirus patients on Monday. #Huawei‘s “remote consultation platform” will also put into use there, improving the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment. #2019CoV pic.twitter.com/4zUDXjts75
— The Business Source (@GlobalTimesBiz) February 2, 2020
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Across China, typically busy streets are empty. Several pointed out the eerie silence in one of the most popular nightlife neighborhoods in Beijing.
Wow check out 太古里！This #Beijing shopping area is normally rammed with people on a Sunday evening. Dead as! #Coronavirus #China https://t.co/k6TZ8UKs8w
— Stephen McDonell (@StephenMcDonell) February 2, 2020
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When it’s all said and done, economists inside and outside China have warned that the outbreak could shave a percentage point or more off of GDP, potentially pushing the rate of growth below 5% – not that many economists trust the Chinese data anyway.
Back in the US, the country is waiting with baited breath to see whether a suspected 9th case of the virus – this time, in NYC – will be confirmed. The Pentagon recently approved a request for quarantine housing for 1,000 people, according to Epoch Times.
Across the world, dozens of airlines have suspended flights to and from China, some as far out as April.
Does that sound like everything is under control to you?
Tyler Durden
Sun, 02/02/2020 – 17:11
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