Feb 03

Today’s News 3rd February 2025

  • Meet The Original 'Conspiracy Theorists': Reagan & The 99th Congress Called Vaccines "Unavoidably Unsafe"
    Meet The Original ‘Conspiracy Theorists’: Reagan & The 99th Congress Called Vaccines “Unavoidably Unsafe”

    Authored by Ginger Taylor via The Brownstone Institute,

    Meet the original “Conspiracy Theorists,” Ronald Reagan and the members of the 99th Congress, who, in 1986, passed into law the “medical misinformation” that vaccines were “unavoidably unsafe” and potentially caused autism…

    Last week Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., President Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, a scathing letter accusing him of, among other things, “dangerous views on vaccine safety” and “false hysteria that vaccines cause autism.”

    The letter included 175 questions that she said he should be prepared to answer at his Senate confirmation hearings.

    But in her letter, she exposes her own ignorance of federal vaccine policy and the laws passed by her own legislative branch. 

    In 1986 the House of Representatives passed the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to 300aa-34) by a voice vote.

    Senator Warren should know that her current Senate Minority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was, at the time, a member of the House and should presumably know that the bill that was passed to give vaccine makers liability protection from civil claims when a child was killed or seriously injured by a vaccine, and placed all vaccines administered to children in the legal category of “unavoidably unsafe” medical products, which means a product that cannot be made safe for its intended use.

    In 2018, Mary Holland, JD, then the Director of the Graduate Legal studies program at New York University School of Law, and now Chief Executive Officer of Children’s Health Defense, a non-profit organization founded by Kennedy, remarked on the legal standing of the safety of vaccines:

    The key language about “unavoidable” side effects comes from the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, 42 USC 300aa-22, re manufacturer responsibility (see bold text below).

    That language was based on language from the Second Restatement of Torts (a legal treatise by tort scholars), adopted by most state courts in the mid-1960’s, that considered all vaccines as “unavoidably unsafe” products. The Restatement opined that such products, “properly prepared, and accompanied by proper directions and warnings, is not defective, nor is it unreasonably dangerous.”

    Further the 2011 SCOTUS ruling in the Bruesewitz v. Wyeth case interpreted the highlighted text below from the National Vaccine Injury Act to find that it did not permit design defect litigation – that issue had been unclear since 1986, and different state high courts and federal circuits had decided the issue differently. So, [it] is correct that the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) never decided that vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe” directly, but it acknowledged that Congress considers them to be so.

    Sec. 300aa-22. Standards of responsibility

    (a) General rule

    Except as provided in subsections (b), (c), and (e) of this section State law shall apply to a civil action brought for damages for a vaccine-related injury or death.

    (b) Unavoidable adverse side effects; warnings

    (1) No vaccine manufacturer shall be liable in a civil action for damages arising from a vaccine-related injury or death associated with the administration of a vaccine after October 1, 1988, if the injury or death resulted from side effects that were unavoidable even though the vaccine was properly prepared and was accompanied by proper directions and warnings.

    (2) For purposes of paragraph (1), a vaccine shall be presumed to be accompanied by proper directions and warnings if the vaccine manufacturer shows that it complied in all material respects with all requirements under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. 

    See https://www.ageofautism.com/2018/11/the-supreme-court-did-not-deem-vaccines-unavoidably-unsafe-congress-did.html

    What few know, even among their own memberships and supporters, is that the following medical authorities consider vaccines unsafe: 

    The American Academy of Pediatrics (“AAP”)

    The American Medical Association (“AMA”)

    The American Academy of Family Physicians (“AAFP”)

    The American College of Osteopathic Pediatricians (“ACOP”)

    The American College of Preventive Medicine (“ACPM”)

    The American Public Health Association (“APHA”)

    The Association of State and Territorial Healthcare Officials (“ASTHO“)

    The Center for Vaccine Awareness and Research at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston 

    Every Child By Two, Carter/Bumpers Champions for Immunization (“ECBT”)

    Immunization Action Coalition (“IAC”) 

    Infectious Diseases Society of America (“IDSA”)

    The March of Dimes Foundation

    Meningitis Angels

    The National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners (“NAPNAP”)

    The National Foundation for Infectious Diseases 

    The National Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Coalition

    The National Meningitis Association, Inc. (“NMA”)

    Parents of Kids with Infectious Diseases (“PKIDs”)

    The Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society (“PIDS”)

    The Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine (“SAHM”)

    The Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (“CHOP”)

    When the family of Hannah Bruesewitz, a child injured by Wyeth’s Tri-Immunol DTP vaccine, challenged the 1986 Act in the Supreme Court for the right to sue Wyeth for Hannah’s severely disabling vaccine-adverse event, these organizations filed an amicus brief in support of Wyeth, asking the court to uphold the law that protects vaccine makers from liability for injury or death arising from any vaccine licensed by the FDA and recommended for children by the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (“ACIP”). They even went as far as to argue against the idea that each vaccine should be individually evaluated for the “unavoidably unsafe” status, stating in their brief

    Case-by-case consideration of whether vaccines are unavoidably unsafe, on the other hand, would “undoubtedly increase the costs and risks associated with litigation and would undermine a manufacturer’s efforts to estimate and control costs.”(citing Bruesewitz v. Wyeth Inc., 561 F.3d 233, 249 (3d Cir. 2009). 

    – Brief Amici Curiae Of The American Academy Of Pediatrics and 21 Other Physicians and Public Health Organizations In Support Of Respondent [Wyeth LLC], at 25.

    The organizations’ position that vaccines are unavoidably unsafe taken before the legislative and judicial branches of the federal government has caused consternation in parents and vaccine safety and choice advocates for decades, because many of these same organizations argue the exact opposite – that vaccines are safe – when they appear before state legislatures in support of school vaccine mandates and in opposition to vaccine exemptions. 

    A lobbyist for the pharmaceutical industry may argue over breakfast in Washington, DC that vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe” and then drive to Annapolis at lunchtime and testify that Maryland should remove religious exemptions to vaccines required for school entry because “vaccines are safe.” 

    Attempts to have these organizations explain their conflicting positions met with stonewalling.

    In 2015, the Maine Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics argued for the removal of and/or restrictions to the religious and conscientious objections to mandated childhood vaccines. The Executive Director of the Maine AAP, Dee Kerry deHaas, testified in writing that this should be done because “vaccines are safe,” but when testifying in person, said that vaccines are “mostly safe.” In my response to her, as the then Director of the Maine Coalition for Vaccine Choice, I asked several questions arising from her testimony, including the following questions:

    How can the AAP argue that vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe” in the Supreme Court in order to convince the federal government to grant you liability protection from vaccine injury, and then argue that, “vaccines are safe,” and “vaccines are mostly safe,” before this committee in order to convince the State of Maine to mandate that families receive counseling/buy vaccines from you?

    Are vaccines, “safe,” “mostly safe,” or “unavoidably unsafe?”

    How do such widely contradictory statements engender trust in vaccines and in pediatricians?

    Her response to my questions:

    Ms. Taylor,

    On behalf of the Maine AAP, I acknowledge receipt of your email and list of questions. I understand that our organizations have different perspectives in the vaccine debate. Each perspective has been aired in the legislative hearings and sessions with regard to these vaccine bills in the First Regular Session of the 127th Maine Legislature.

    I respectfully decline to respond to your list of proposed questions or to continue the debate with you through electronic correspondence or social media.

    Dee deHaas
    Executive Director
    American Academy of Pediatrics, Maine Chapter

    Those advocating under this nonsensical construct quip that vaccines are unsafe, but only in DC. 

    Parent of a vaccine-injured son, Kim Spencer of The Thinking Moms’ Revolution, noted of the vaccine industry, “their claim that vaccines are ‘unavoidably unsafe’ won them liability protection, their claim that ‘vaccines are safe’ won them school and work mandates, but their claim that both are true has won them the distrust and contempt of parents.”

    Senator Warren also accuses Mr. Kennedy of having, “spread false hysteria that vaccines cause autism.” But Kennedy has only done what Warren’s Congressional colleagues did 20 years before he began in vaccine safety advocacy; promote research into the vaccine-autism link and any link between vaccines and other childhood disorders. 

    Congress, while giving liability protection to vaccine makers with the 1986 Act, also ordered HHS to study links between the pertussis vaccine and more than a dozen conditions, including autism: 

    SEC. 312. RELATED STUDIES.

    (a) REVIEW OF PERTUSSIS VACCINES AND RELATED ILLNESSES AND CONDITIONS.—Not later than 3 years after the effective date of this title, the Secretary of Health and Human Services shall complete a review of all relevant medical and scientific information (including information obtained from the studies required under subsection (e)) on the nature, circumstances, and extent of the relationship, if any, between vaccines containing pertussis (including whole cell, extracts, and specific antigens) and the following illnesses and conditions:

    (1) Hemolytic anemia.

    (2) Hypsarrhythmia.

    (3) Infantile spasms.

    (4) Reye’s syndrome.

    (5) Peripheral mononeuropathy.

    (6) Deaths classified as sudden infant death syndrome.

    (7) Aseptic meningitis.

    (8) Juvenile diabetes.

    (9) Autism.

    (10) Learning disabilities.

    (11) Hyperactivity.

    (12) Such other illnesses and conditions as the Secretary may choose to review or as the Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines established under section 2119 of the Public Health Service Act recommends for inclusion in such review. (Ante, p. 3771).

    – PUBLIC LAW 99–2660—NOV. 14, 1986 100 STAT. 3755

    The pertussis vaccine injury inquiry ordered by law in 1986 was undertaken by the National Institutes of Health, carried out by the Institute of Medicine, published by the National Academy of Sciences in 1991, and edited by, among others, none other than Harvard’s Harvey Fineberg, who chaired the Committee to review the Adverse Consequences of Pertussis and Rubella Vaccines. PubMed (a database maintained by the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health) gave the following summary of the final report, titled Adverse Effects of Pertussis and Rubella

    Vaccines: A Report of the Committee to Review the Adverse Consequences of Pertussis and Rubella Vaccines:

    Parents have come to depend on vaccines to protect their children from a variety of diseases. Some evidence suggests, however, that vaccination against pertussis (whooping cough) and rubella (German measles) is, in a small number of cases, associated with increased risk of serious illness. This book examines the controversy over the evidence and offers a comprehensively documented assessment of the risk of illness following immunization with vaccines against pertussis and rubella. Based on extensive review of the evidence from epidemiologic studies, case histories, studies in animals, and other sources of information, the book examines: The relation of pertussis vaccines to a number of serious adverse events, including encephalopathy and other central nervous system disorders, sudden infant death syndrome, autism, Guillain-Barre syndrome, learning disabilities, and Reye syndrome. The relation of rubella vaccines to arthritis, various neuropathies, and thrombocytopenic purpura. The volume, which includes a description of the committee’s methods for evaluating evidence and directions for future research, will be important reading for public health officials, pediatricians, researchers, and concerned parents. 

    See https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25121241/ (emphasis added).

    The report’s cursory summary on autism was this:

    No data were identified that address the question of a relation between vaccination with DPT or its pertussis component and autism. There are no experimental data bearing on a possible biologic mechanism. (p. 152.)

    In other words, we don’t know; no one has ever looked.

    But since there was no data to prove a link, because there was no data, they decided to reject the hypothesis and conclude:

    There is no evidence to indicate a causal relation between DPT vaccine or the pertussis component of DPT vaccine and autism. (Id.)

    Today there is a great deal more data than there was in 1991. This report was published before the dramatic rise in autism rates in the 1990s following the rapid expansion of the number of vaccines given to children once the industry had liability protection from vaccine-induced injuries.

    Now, more than 200 papers showing multiple vaccine-autism links exist. You can review those papers at https://howdovaccinescauseautism.org/. 

    Senator Warren and all those skeptical of Mr. Kennedy’s vaccine critique must understand that he is more informed on vaccine law than the legislators questioning him. The political talking point that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is a “conspiracy theorist” if perpetuated, must now extend to the entire Legislative branch of the US Government starting with Democrats like former Congressman Henry Waxman, who wrote and introduced the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act.

    Senator Warren might also consult with other current members of the US Congress who held seats when the 1986 Act was passed, such as Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Hal Rogers (R-KY), Ron Wyden (D-OR), Chris Smith (R-NJ, who also sponsored the Combating Autism Act of 2006), and most notably, her own fellow Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, Ed Markey.

    Warren, like most politicians and doctors, does not understand that the presumption at the foundation of American vaccine policy, and the landmark law that has underpinned that policy for 39 years, is that vaccines are unavoidably unsafe.

    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. does.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 23:20

  • "Full-On Corruption": A Horrific Account Of Government Harassment Against Jan. 6 'Survivor'
    “Full-On Corruption”: A Horrific Account Of Government Harassment Against Jan. 6 ‘Survivor’

    The following is an account from Michael Shane Daughtery, a former SWAT officer who was aggressively pursued by the Biden DOJ for peacefully participating in the Jan 6, 2021 protest.

    Daughtery’s story was conveyed by journalist Sarah Fields via X, who writes “Just when you think his story cannot get crazier, it does. His story is one of full-on corruption.“

    Click into the post to read via X (and consider subscribing to Fields’ feed), or continue reading below.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    My name is Michael Shane Daughtry and this is my January 6th Story.

    I was a Police Officer with SWAT and Sniper Certifications, 20+ years Police experience and over a thousand hours of training. I’m also a Master Gunsmith with a Federal Firearms License and a Gunsmithing Business with over 10 years experience.

    On January 6th 2021, I traveled to Washington DC with my wife Tammie to watch the Trump Rally. As the rally was completing, the President of the United States told the crowd to go to the West Lawn and “peacefully” protest, which we did. As we arrived at the West Lawn, the police officers removed the barricades and waved us onto the West Lawn. I had video of this but the FBI later raided my home and confiscated this Video. I never went into the Capital Building or damaged any property but I did later observe people causing damage to the Capital Building so I took a few pictures of these people and then returned to my motel room, we returned home the next morning.

    This image of the January 6 riot, taken from a phone screen, is from a court document submitted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for Washington, D.C. and highlights a man that prosecutors identify as Shane Daughtry.

    On January 16th, I was charged with trespassing on the West Lawn on January 6th even though the President had ask me to go there and the police had moved the barricades and waved me onto the West Lawn.

    The FBI contacted me around midnight and asked me to turn myself into the Federal Marshalls at the Federal Courthouse in Macon by 9:00 am the next morning. I voluntarily turned myself into the Federal Marshalls at the Federal Courthouse in Macon Ga. Upon arrival I was advised by Federal Marshalls that Pelham Police Investigator Adam Lamb, Assistant Chief Rod Williams and Chief Mccormick had turned me in to the FBI after finding out I was in DC.

    In 2020 I was working as a Police Officer for the Pelham Police Department and also owned a Firearms Gunsmithing Company named “Cazy Coon Armory” My business was named after my pet Raccoon that was named Rocket but we always called him “Crazy Ole Coon”. On November 13th 2020, Pelham Police Department Investigator Adam Lamb had showed up to my home stating Police Cheif McCormack had fired me for having a Logo with a picture of a Racoon on it with the words “Crazy Coon Armory” telling me that the logo had the word “Coon” on it and that made it a Racist Logo. The police department said they didn’t know I had an outside business with that name even though it was on my resume and on my application for employment. I had also worked on several of of the Pelham Police Department weapons including pistols and full auto rifles at Crazy Coon Armory.

    The paperwork they asked me to sign stated I was being fired for being a Racist. I refused to sign this separation letter. After I was fired, without even being giving a chance to resign, I decided to expose the Pelham Police Department and it’s very corrupt Chief for several of the crimes they had committed and were committing including insurance fraud, illegal gambling and cover ups. I was posting this corruption on my Facebook Page and the City of Pelhams Facebook Page every night which made the Police very angery and this was the reason for turning me into the FBI so they could silence me.

    After the Marshalls read me this affidavit, I was put into a jail cell for several hours before being brought before a Federal Magistrate Judge. Even though I was a Law Enforcement Officer with no other criminal record, I was placed in handcuffs, leg irons and belly chains and was advised not to speak. And even though I’m a certified Law Enforcement Officer, have never been arrested or charged with any other crime in my life and had gotten up before daylight and driven over 100 miles to turn myself in, the judge advised me that I was a flight risk and ordered me to wear an ankle monitor, be place under House Arrest, placed on Pre Trial Probation, forced to post $25,000 bond and was placed on Tap 4 internet restrictions saying I couldn’t use any computers our internet. At that time I was not allowed to make a plea and was not allowed to plea until over 18 months later.

    I was appointed a public defender without even being asked. I had a very experienced federal attorney that was willing to take my case for free but I was advised that I could not have an attorney of my choosing and could only hire an attorney from the Washington DC District that was certified to take cases in federal court in DC. The only attorney I could find meeting these requirements wanted over $100,000 plus $10,000 per hearing which I had 5, which would have been a total of $150,000.00 and my case isn’t even over yet.

    Upon my release from jail late on January 16th, I returned home where my home and firearms business was immediately raided by Federal Agents that were waiting at my property. Numerous Federal Agents searched my home and property without a warrant and all my weapons and ammo were confiscated from my home and from my licensed firearms business, all for a crime that I would not lose my 2nd ammendment rights even if I were convicted.

    I was forced, with threat of prison, to give Federal Agents:

    *My Email Passwords and User Info with written permission to access these accounts.
    *My Bank Account Passwords
    *My Bank Account Numbers with written permission to access these accounts.
    *My Safe Deposit Box Info with written permission to search this box
    *All my Social Media User Names and Passwords with written permission to access accounts.
    *I was not allowed to change any password or information without permission from the Federal Government.
    *I’m not allowed to take out any new lines of credit without prior Government approval.
    *I was forced to swear under oath that I did not have any money, firearms or other items buried anywhere or have any storage units.
    *I was forced to swear under oath that I did not have any photographs or videos hidden or buried.
    *I Was not allowed to possess any phone, camera or recording devices other than the one phone I was allowed by probation to have and the FBI took that phone the next day and kept it for weeks.
    *I was forced, with threat of prison, to fill out a financial statement listing:
    *My Checking account balances and passwords
    *My Savings account balance and passwords
    *Credit Card Balance, and account information and password.
    *My vehicle loan information and value
    *My Vehicle Tag #, Year, Make & Model
    *My home loan information and home and property value.
    *The amount of cash on hand.
    *The value of my clothes.
    *The value of my home furnishings.
    *Names, Addresses, Birthdays and Social Security Numbers of all my family members.
    *Names, phone numbers and Addresses of my friends.
    *Names, Addresses and Birthdays of any Ex Wives and Children.

    Early the next morning Federal agents confiscated all my FFL files including my FFL Log Book and 4473 files. Later that day, my home was raided again by Federal Agents who confiscated my phone and searched all my computers and electronic devices. My phone was not returned for 2 weeks. I was under court order to not use any other phone or computer so I was without any communication with friends, family or my attorneys for two weeks. This also gave the Federal Government access to all my email and text message communications between my attorney and myself.

    I was then forced to pay for home phone service and to pay for phone monitoring services and monthly fees for my ankle monitor.

    Approximately a year later my home was again searched without a warrant and without any explanation and I was threated with a probation condition violation if I complained about the searches of my property and that a probation violation would have a 17 year felony sentence.

    Three weeks later, my home was again raided and all my electronic devices including my phone, computer, thumb drives, hard drives and memory cards were searched then confiscated. My desktop computer was confiscated without explanation and Federal Agents said they didn’t know when my computer would be returned. This computer contained all the files needed to file my taxes that month, all my social security files I needed to file for my retirement benefits and all my private correspondence between my attorneys. This computer also contained all the software needed to run my business. My computer and phone were not returned for two weeks. When I received my phone back I noticed that all my pictures and videos that I had taken January 6th were missing including the video evidence I had of the Capital Police removing barriers and waving me onto the West Lawn of the Capital that I was charged with trespassing on. I also noticed my FFL Digital Logbook had been removed from my computer and my FFL Logbook backup files had been removed from my Google Drive Account that I had been forced to give the login information. Federal Agents had already taken my hardcopy FFL Logbook and 4473 files in a previous search of my firearms business so they now had all my FFL Files not even leaving me a copy.

    Even though I’ve only been charged with a non violent, misdemeanor crime, I’ve been on house arrest for almost two years for a crime that carries a maximum punishment of less than a year. I have not been allowed to plea in this case.

    When I asked about my 6th Amendment right to a speedy trial, I was advised by Federal Court Judge Randolph D. Moss that the Sixth Amendment had been suspended due to Covid-19 and the large number of arrest made from the January 6th incident. The Sixth Amendment also gives me the right to a Fair Trial, does this mean I didn’t have the right to a fair trail either? I’m not sure how a Federal Court Judge can legally suspend one of the Bill of Rights.

    In June 2022, I was told by prosecutors that I could plea guilty to Trespassing on the Grass or face going to court in Washington DC on several other (made up) felony charges that they knew I had not committed. So because I had no chance of a fair trail and facing several false charges, I was forced to plead guilty to Trespassing on the Restricted West Lawn. My plea agreement stated the maximum amount of probation I could receive would be one year but for this non violent misdemeanor crime, I was sentenced to:

    1: Two additional months of House Arrest with Location Monitoring for a total of 18 months.

    2: Three additional years of Supervised Federal Probation with travel restrictions for a total of 4 years and 8 months of Supervised Federal Probation even though the plea agreement I had signed stated a maximum of 1 year probation.

    3: Firearm Confiscation and Restrictions in clear violation of my 2nd amendment rights.

    4: Mandatory random drug testing even though I have no drug history. I have passed all these tests.

    5: Mandatory mental health evaluation, even though I have no mental health history. I passed this test.

    6: $525.00 in restitution for damage to the Capital Building even though I never entered or even touched the Capital Building. I paid this fine.

    7: 60 hours of community service. I completed all the community service.

    After my sentencing, my home was again searched by a Federal Probation Agent who searched backpacks, closed closets, closed drawers, including my girlfriends underwear drawers even though they had a court order advising that Probation Agents could only take illegal items that are “In Plain Sight”.

    My home has now been searched 7 times in 4 years. It’s been searched by the FBI, the Federal Marshalls, the DOJ, and Federal Probation several times. Everyone always come wearing SWAT vests and heavily armed even though the only crime I’ve ever been accused of is illegally walking on the grass.

    The government then, using a fake name and phone number, attempted to send firearms to my FFL business through www.guns. on two different occasions in one week. I recognized this persons voice as Assistant U.S. Attorney Graciela Rodriguez Lindberg. Another person then, using another fake name and number called asking if they could bring a firearm to my business for an appraisal. I recognized this person’s voice as my probation officer even though he was giving me another name. I told the person that I could not look at the gun and advised him that my business was closed. I also lied and told this person that I was out of state at the time so they would leave me alone. I’m on travel restrictions and can’t go out of state so my probation officer almost immediately called and asked my location and when I told him I was home, a person stating he had just spoken to to me about the gun appraisal arrived at my home even though I had refused to look at the gun and had told him I was out of state. This person had a different voice, was extremely pushy and would not take no for an answer even when I told him several more times that I couldn’t look at his firearm. This person then opened his vehicle trunk stating he was going show the gun to me anyway. At this time I drove away on my off road buggy leaving him at my home. When I later returned home this person was gone.

    I was then contacted by Police Officer Safety & Training Officials stating my law enforcement certification is being revoked for not reporting my arrest to them even though the federal government had taken my phones, computers, I had federal imposed internet restrictions and was on house arrest with no way to contact POST. Also the Federal Agents who confiscated my phones and computers advised me they would contact P.O.S.T. for me because of all my communication restrictions.

    Now I’ve been contacted by the Department of Justice stating they were processing my request for a refund on my FFL renewal even though I haven’t requested a refund. The D.O.J. then contacted me by phone and stated my Federal Firearms License is being revoked even though I haven’t committed any crime that would prevent me from possessing a firearm or FFL.

    Today I was contacted by my probation officer stating the ATF had contacted him stating that the ATF had requested me to send my FFL files to the ATF and that I had not responded to their request. I hadn’t received any requests from the ATF and can’t understand why they contacted my probation officer. The ATF has my phone number, Email Address, Mailing Address, and Physical Address that’s required for my FFL, I’m very easy to contact. Even though the ATF field officer is required to do regular inspections of my FFL Business, I haven’t be contacted by the field officer since I was arrested three years ago and the only correspondence I’ve had with the ATF was a letter in February 2023 stating I owed them $90 for my FFL renewal. I sent this letter back with a check which they cashed.

    Today the ATF Agent contacted me stating my FFL renewal was denied because I failed a background check and stated I was now a convicted felon and could never own a firearm again. After notifying my attorney, the agent called back the next day stating that the FBI had “accidentally mis-coded” my case into the computer and I was not a felon or restricted person but they refused to give my FFL back even though they now had no reason to deny me. The ATF advised me that I was required by law the send them all my FFL Files. I advised the agent that all my FFL Files had been confiscated the day after my arrest.

    Now I’ve been contacted by an ATF Agent who stated he couldn’t find any agency that would admit taking my files and then threatened me several times with felony charges for Retention of Files for not returning 4473 files that the government had already confiscated 3 years previous. I advised the ATF that my files had been confiscated previously by two unknown government agents who took my files and left without identifying themselves or giving me any paperwork. The ATF Agent called me a liar several times and every time he called me a liar, I hung up on him. I advised the agent that I would try to find a backup copy of my digital log book somewhere but I was going out of state to take my wife to court as a witness in an unrelated case for about a week and that I had court approval for this trip. A few days later I traveled to court about 5 hours away in Tuscaloosa Alabama and asked my neighbor, who is a Newton Georgia Police Officer, to watch my property and feed our animals until we returned home. On the third day out of state, I received a notification from my security system stating my power had been off but was back on. I was told by authorities that the power had went out for about 30 minutes in the entire city of Newton for an unknown reason. I looked at my security cameras to check on my home and animals and noticed a package holding my storm door partially open and it had been placed there while the power and my cameras were out. I asked the officer to check the package and asked if he would make sure someone hadn’t mailed a firearm to my home FFL for repair because I’m restricted from possessing firearms. The officer stated that the box didn’t have a shipping label and appeared to contain FFL files and folders. It appears that the Federal Agents (DOJ, I believe) who illegally took my files got scared of all the inquiries and returned my files. The only markings on this box was my federal case number. The Officer took the FFL files into evidence, put them into the evidence room at Newton Police Department and contacted the ATF Agent. The next day the officer called me to say he had notified the ATF about recovering the files and that the ATF Agent was going to recover the files from the police department. The ATF continued to threaten me with felony charges of Retention of Files even after the files were recovered by the ATF Agent.

    I’ve contacted my court appointed attorney’s office 6 times over the past year advising them that I needed to speak with my attorney with no response other than the secretary advising me that the attorney is very busy.

    It’s now September 2024 and my home has again been searched by the Federal Government who again found nothing illegal in my home.

    On January 30th 2024, I contacted my attorney’s office and asked for a transcript of my motion for a speedy trial. During this previous hearing, I was advised that I didn’t have the right to a fair and speedy trial because the 6th Amendment had been suspended by the Federal Court because of Covid and the large number of arrest during January 6th. My attorney’s secretary told me that there was no transcript because the judge said there was no court reporter during this hearing and the video of the proceedings are not available to the public. I was also warned at the beginning of that Speedy Trial hearing that it was a Federal Felony for me to record my own hearing.

    This is the type of government corruption that all January 6th defendants have faced and if they can do this to me then they can do it to you one day also. This is just 1 of over 1500 similar stories with many of them much, much worst than mine.

    January 20th 2025

    President Donald Trump issued Me and 1500 other January 6th defendants a Full Presidential Pardon.

    Please share this story to everyone you know.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 22:45

  • The Secret Tariff Code Is Buried In 'Section 2, Item (h)' Of The Executive Order
    The Secret Tariff Code Is Buried In ‘Section 2, Item (h)’ Of The Executive Order

    Authored by ‘sundance’ via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

    Remember when President Trump established the “External Revenue Service?” … It’s all connected and sequential…

    Almost everyone will miss, in part because outcomes appear in a sequence that few care to follow, but buried in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE} you will discover something.  As the unofficial Deep State strategist, and the self-appointed misfit explainer of stuff, lol, we will explain:

    [Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined by the Federal Register notice described in subsection (e) of this section (Federal Register notice), and except for those products described in subsection (b) of this section, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 25 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4, 2025, except that goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, after such time that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading or in transit on the final mode of transport prior to entry into the United States before 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 1, 2025, shall not be subject to such additional duty, only if the importer certifies to CBP as specified in the Federal Register notice.

    […] (h) For avoidance of doubt, duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321 shall not be available for the articles described in subsection (a) and subsection (b) of this section. {link}

    So, Canada and Mexico get 25% tariffs, but China only 10%. 

    Why? 

    The secret is in that subsection “(h)” when it talks about de minimis treatment.

    Essentially, what President Trump is doing is levying a much more massive import tax, and possible confiscation impact on the core source of fentanyl (and other illegal) substances.

    (Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s new trade levies against China, Canada and Mexico include a broadside against e-commerce, with apparent plans to extinguish a long-held tariff exemption for packages worth less than $800.

    Trump’s executive orders directing 25% levies on Canada and Mexico — plus a 10% duty on China — specify that the “de minimis” exemption for small packages no longer applies. Under the exemption, products below that dollar amount are able to enter the US without tariffs — a boon for China’s e-commerce retailers who ship often cheaper wares directly to consumers in the US.

    The full scope of the de minimis changes — whether they apply just to the new tariffs issued Saturday or to older existing trade levies — was not clear. A White House spokesman did not respond to questions about its reach.

    However, trade lawyers said Trump’s language cracking down on the de minimis exemption could apply broadly, even to existing duties against China, Canada and Mexico.

    Regardless, the impact of the change threatens to fall most squarely on China, affecting retailers including Alibaba, JD.com Inc., PDD Holdings Inc.’s Temu and fashion-focused Shein. American shoppers and companies imported about $48 billion worth of shipments from the world under that loophole in the first nine months of last year, according to US Customs and Border Protection estimates. (read more)

    Approximately a billion packages are estimated to enter the USA under the cover of the de minimis exemption. 

    This is where the enforcement mechanism of the “External Revenue Service” combines with the tariff approach and the “state of emergency.”  President Trump imposed the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a nearly 50-year law that gives the president sweeping power to impose sanctions after declaring an emergency.

    Now the billion packages, mostly from China, Mexico and Canada are going to be subjected to review and interception.

    The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

    Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800.  However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

    It was reported last year that the U.S. was on track to receive a billion packages through the de minimis loophole that aren’t taxed and don’t have customs slips saying what they are.  Making matters worse, illegal items are slipping through the cracks, including, knockoffs, unsafe items and even chemicals used to make fentanyl.  The worst abuser that exploits this de minimis loophole is, by far, China.

    President Trump can require a customs and duty declaration stating what is in every package and subsequently collect tariffs and duties.

    Put it all together and President Trump is executing an Emergency Act executive order, plus the imposition of a tariff review, and simultaneous interception of de minimis packages previously unchecked as the enforcement mechanism. 

    All executed by the External Revenue Service.

    President Trump has got them surrounded, and the scope of it has the media so overwhelmed they cannot quite put it together.

    Almost too much winning…

    … Almost!

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 22:10

  • How Trump's Dismantling Of USAID Marks A Seismic, Historic Shift In America's Role In The World
    How Trump’s Dismantling Of USAID Marks A Seismic, Historic Shift In America’s Role In The World

    The most consequential decision and executive order which came within the opening days of President Donald Trump’s administration has without doubt been his “reevaluating and realigning US foreign aid” — which sent shockwaves through Washington especially given federal funding has been cut to USAID in a shock blow to the agency. But it is also having a massive ripple effect throughout the world. Some foreign powers will welcome the news, while many allies as well as an assortment of US-backed ‘opposition groups’ will feel completely abandoned.

    This has meant that pro-Western media outlets, NGOs, and ‘soft power’ organizations are in panic mode. This has basically overnight shutdown a multi-billion dollar regime change apparatus which pushed or often imposed American interests throughout the globe, especially in the very vulnerable Third World, as well as former Soviet satellite regions. The way this works on a practical, on the ground level is detailed in the well-known book Confessions Of An Economic Hit Man. As for Trump’s apparent efforts to dismantle the powerful USAID agency, we compiled some of the best current analysis from around the web outlining the huge significance of this move, which is nothing less than a historic reset (and we say a very welcome reset) of Washington’s relations with the rest of the world.

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    We’re looking at a seismic shift in the US’s relationship with the world, via Arnaud Bertrand:

    1) The US is dismantling its foreign interference apparatuses (like USAID )

    2) Marco Rubio stating that we’re now in a multipolar world with “multi-great powers in different parts of the planet” and that “the postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us.”

    3) The tariffs on supposed “allies” like Mexico, Canada or the EU: This is the US effectively saying “our attempt at running the world is over, to each his own, we’re now just another great power, not the ‘indispensable nation’.” It looks “dumb” (as the WSJ just wrote) if you are still mentally in the old paradigm but it’s always a mistake to think that what the US (or any country) does is dumb.

    Hegemony was going to end sooner or later, and now the U.S. is basically choosing to end it on its own terms. It is the post-American world order – brought to you by America itself. Even the tariffs on allies, viewed under this angle, make sense, as it redefines the concept of “allies”: they don’t want – or maybe rather can’t afford – vassals anymore, but rather relationships that evolve based on current interests.

    You can either view it as decline – because it does unquestionably look like the end of the American empire – or as avoiding further decline: controlled withdrawal from imperial commitments in order to focus resources on core national interests rather than being forced into an even messier retreat at a later stage. In any case it is the end of an era and, while the Trump administration looks like chaos to many observers, they’re probably much more attuned to the changing realities of the world and their own country’s predicament than their predecessors.

    Acknowledging the existence of a multipolar world and choosing to operate within it rather than trying to maintain an increasingly costly global hegemony couldn’t be delayed much further. It looks messy but it is probably better than maintaining the fiction of American primacy until it eventually collapses under its own weight. This is not to say that the U.S. won’t continue to wreak havoc on the world, and in fact we might be seeing it become even more aggressive than before. Because when it previously was (badly, and very hypocritically) trying to maintain some semblance of self-proclaimed “rules-based order”, it now doesn’t even have to pretend it is under any constraint, not even the constraint of playing nice with allies.

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    It’s the end of the U.S. empire, but definitely not the end of the U.S. as a major disruptive force in world affairs. All in all this transformation may mark one of the most significant shifts in international relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. And those most unprepared for it, as is already painfully obvious, are America’s vassals caught completely flat-footed by the realization that the patron they’ve relied on for decades is now treating them as just another set of countries to negotiate with.

    * * *

    How the Biden administration weaponized USAID, via @DefiyantlyFree

    1. Abortion: One of the first things that Joe Biden did after assuming office was to revoke the Mexico City policy, which was supposed to prevent the federal government from using our tax dollars to fund overseas abortions. He did this, even though 73% of Americans strongly oppose using taxpayer funding to support overseas abortion. That includes 59% of people that are actually pro-choice. He resumed funding to the United Nations population fund and dramatically expanded the scope of programs that are authorized to pay for abortion services. Joe Biden tied taxpayer funded abortion services internationally to the United States efforts to advance, gender quality globally and respond to gender based violence and to confront challenges such as HIV aids, tuberculosis and malaria. That means that grants given through ID that go towards malaria or other diseases include paying for abortions on demand in those countries. As a result of these abortion driven objectives in 2022 the US Department of state and USA ID budget was 12% higher than previous years and totaled 70 Billion dollars.

    2. Identity Ideology: In 2021 the national gender strategy was implemented for foreign aid and started using an intersectional approach that considers barriers and challenges faced by those who have intersecting in compounding forms of discrimination. That’s a fancy way of saying Marxist victimhood in order of priority. In the Biden administration intersectionality dictated the manner in which US AI ID designed its programs and designed who received its funding.

    3.Global DEI: Representatives of the UN who discussed for an aid frequently mentioned the 1619 project and said that slavery is an original sin of America. The Biden administration made accepting and requiring communities of color to adopt to DEI a condition of receiving foreign aide.

    4. Global Climate Change: By reentering the Paris climate accords USAID was mobilized into action to fight climate change across the country and force the United States of America to underwrite this climate change overseas. In 2021 USAID announced that it would mobilize $150 billion in public and private climate finance by 2030 with the majority of funding coming from private service actors in collaboration with the United States Taxpayer dollars. There was an integration with the WHO‘s initiative on climate, resilient health systems and sustainable, low carbon health systems and the US national oceanic atmosphere administration. When they say malaria, they mean through climate change hysteria, and green energy policies. For instance, South America needs $26 billion to transform its power system and the United States and Europe under Joe Biden committed to $8.5 billion each to help the country make that transition. That money would be facilitated through USAID.

    5. Perpetual need for foreign aid: There is no better example of the insidious relationship between foreign aid and nation building then that of Afghanistan. Even after we pulled out of Afghanistan, USA ID was used to continuously fund the nation.

    6. UNRWA and terrorism: The moment President Trump left office and Biden restored to this organization and removed the Houthi rebels in Yemen from a US list of designated terrorists. Removing them from this designation meant that funds flowed to them in foreign aid and were misappropriated to attack and occupy the US Embassy in Sana.

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    7. USAID has been used to fund leftist progressive causes exclusively: If you look at 50 USAID employees chosen at random, which the heritage foundation did 48 of them donated to Democratic candidates and causes, and only two of them donated to Republicans. Following the Floyd riots, 1000 USAID employees demanded the agency make a public statement, affirming Black Lives Matter and accused USAID of structural racism by not designing plans to combat systemic racism, injustice, colonialism, and police brutality, all around the world. The Rockefeller Center, one of the most leftist organizations signed an agreement to be in a strategic partnership with USAID and all of the individual political contributions went to progressive campaigns. The international rescue committee received hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer money to fund its highly partisan causes. The former cochair of this committee was Obama’s treasury secretary.

    The Board of Directors has every single one of the founders of the Democratic Party and support progressive policy goals. Another major recipient of foreign aid is CARE international. This is probably one of the most partisan groups who has people like Valerie Jared, Nancy Pelosi, and Hilary Clinton carve out its policy. What once started out as an agency that was about helping to end global poverty in world, and hunger and has become an organization that is solely aligned with radical progressive Democrat agendas. And that is not even touching the vast censorship arm that USAID controls and funds. If anyone is curious about the rabbit hole that exists as it relates to censorship from USAID, I would suggest that you subscribe to Mike Benz on X.

    * * *

    Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, says more often there’s a hidden nefarious agenda…

    Most governments don’t want USAID funds flowing into their countries because they understand where much of that money actually ends up. While marketed as support for development, democracy, and human rights, the majority of these funds are funneled into opposition groups, NGOs with political agendas, and destabilizing movements.

    At best, maybe 10% of the money reaches real projects that help people in need (there are such cases), but the rest is used to fuel dissent, finance protests, and undermine administrations that refuse to align with the globalist agenda. Cutting this so-called aid isn’t just beneficial for the United States; it’s also a big win for the rest of the world.

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    And here’s journalist Glenn Greenwald: “USAID, like the National Endowment for Democracy, are well-documented CIA fronts that are designed to manipulate other countries’ internal politics for the benefits of DC elites and nobody else in the US. Both agencies have wrought destruction and can’t die soon enough.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 21:35

  • Rounding Up The Usual Suspects: Grassley Releases Familiar Name In The Origins Of The Trump Investigation
    Rounding Up The Usual Suspects: Grassley Releases Familiar Name In The Origins Of The Trump Investigation

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    For Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the weaponization of the criminal justice system has always followed a certain Casablanca pattern. Like Claude Rains as the venerable Captain Louis Renault, it is simply a matter of “rounding up the usual suspects.”

    Grassley released FBI whistleblower records on Thursday showing that an anti-Trump figure, former FBI Assistant Special Agent in Charge Timothy Thibault, previously found to have violated the Hatch Act was a key factor in pushing the election charges brought by former Special Counsel Jack Smith.

    Grassley suggested that Thibault violated protocol in opening and advancing the FBI’s initial probe into the 2020 election without sufficient predication. The investigation, called Operation Arctic Frost, was opened on April 13, 2022.

    Years later, “Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, [Thibault] walked” into Grassley’s.

    Whistleblowers alleged that Thibault’s alleged “partisanship” likely impacted investigations involving President Trump and Hunter Biden.

    Thibault was previously named as the agent who effectively scuttled the investigation into Hunter Biden and his laptop.

    Fox News reported that a February 14, 2022 email revealed Thibault communicating with a subordinate agent on the foundations for an investigation of Trump.

    In another email ten days later to John Crabb, a prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, Thibault states:

    “I had a discussion with the case team and we believe there to be predication to include former President of the United States Donald J. Trump as a predicated subject.”

    The emails, and others detailed in the report, show Thibault pushing the investigation – in sharp contrast to his role in the Biden investigations.

    Grassley and others are citing the evidence as supporting the need to “clean house” at the FBI and root out those who actively participated in the politicization of the criminal justice process.

    For those of us familiar with Thibault from the Hunter Biden investigation, his role in the origins of the Smith investigation is deeply concerning.

    Whistleblowers previously accused Thibault of “circumventing normal process and procedure to open full field investigations.” 

    He was later found by the Inspector General to be violating the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal employees from engaging in certain political activities.

    The violations included Thibault retweeting social media posts by the Lincoln Project, a vehemently anti-Trump group.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 21:00

  • Illegal Migrant Protests Ramp Up In US Cities In Response To Trump Deportations
    Illegal Migrant Protests Ramp Up In US Cities In Response To Trump Deportations

    Civil actions from the political left are notoriously seasonal and the winter cold usually keeps fragile progressives indoors.  However, in southern states where temps are warming up we’re getting an early glimpse of what larger US cities will probably look like with the arrival of spring.  Illegal migrants and their leftist “allies” are up in arms this week and they’re feeling bold – Donald Trump’s mass deportation initiatives, which have so far focused on criminal gangs and violent offenders, are unacceptable they say.

    Protest groups of hundreds and in some cases thousands of people have erupted in San Diego, LA, San Fransisco, Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and a handful of other cities.  The events have remained generally peaceful, though in some cases protesters have blocked traffic and attacked vehicles trying to get through.  

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    Mass deportations have received wide support, with 66% of US citizens backing the policy in light of the border crisis created by the Biden Administration.  Current projections indicate 16 million to 20 million illegals currently reside in the US, with up to 10 million entering the country in the past four years alone (DHS has admitted that 85% of migrants caught at the border were allowed to enter under amnesty rules during the Biden Administration).  Official government statistics have proven to be faulty, reporting only half the actual number of migrants entering the US at any given time.

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    It’s hard to imagine many countries outside the US (or Europe) where illegal migrants are so entitled that they’re willing demand access by taking to the streets, but here it is.  Imagine if a foreign army marched up to the southern border and then threw a temper tantrum because the US wouldn’t let them invade?  This is essentially what’s happening now.

    A common mantra among protesters is that “no human is illegal on stolen land”.  It’s actually conquered land, and the conquerors get to make the rules.    

    The more diplomatic illegal alien position is that “migrant rights are human rights”, but human rights do not give foreigners license to invade another country or break that country’s laws.  It’s rather convenient to use “human rights” as a social justice shield when the majority of illegals are actively siphoning welfare handouts and other subsidies paid for by legal citizens. 

    What about the human rights of native born Americans? 

    Another argument from migrants is that “they make America great” by gracing the US with their presence.  But one might notice that at most of these rallies there is hardly an American flag in sight.  In fact, every march is canvassed in the red, white and green of the Mexican flag.  This would suggest that migrants have far more loyalty to Mexico than to the US and that their presence in the states is not part of some “immigrant dream” to assimilate into American culture.

    Rather, it is common for illegals to see the US as a cash cow; a place to sneak in, grab as many handouts and as much money as possible and then wire that wealth back to Mexico (or any number of countries) where they plan to retire.  This ongoing international scam has become a kind of institution; certain US businesses and industries get labor for 30% less while migrants get to comfortably feed off system that US taxpayers support.   

    The scam is treated as a tradition.  It is so entrenched that illegals are shocked and enraged that it might actually come to an end.  It’s a cultural phenomenon that most westerners just don’t understand, but in the third world empathy and charity are often seen as signs of weakness.  If you give them an inch they will take a mile because this is how people learn to survive in places where corruption is the cultural norm.     

    It’s hard to say what could possibly come from these protests other than making it easy for ICE to round up hundreds of migrants at one time.  The notion that illegals have a right to protest at all is absurd, but if they want to serve themselves up on a platter for deportation it’s probably not going to bother Tom Homan.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 20:25

  • Inclusive DNC Chooses White Man To Save Party – And Gun-Grabber Hogg As Vice Chair
    Inclusive DNC Chooses White Man To Save Party – And Gun-Grabber Hogg As Vice Chair

    In the wake of its general election beatdown, the party that’s dedicated to smashing America’s “white heteronormative patriarchy” has elected a lily-white, heterosexual man to its top position. Hitherto unheard-of Minnesota Democratic Party chair Ken Martin will be the new national “chairperson,” while skinny 24-year-old gun-grabber and general-purpose ignoramus David Hogg is among three vice chairs.  

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    Evidencing a party that’s still in denial, the DNC leadership race didn’t center on why the party has lost control of the House, Senate and White House. Martin has, however, promised to lead a “post-election review.” He better get on it quickly: Only 31% of US voters view Democratic Party favorably.  

    In his campaign, Martin positioned himself a “pro-labor progressive,” however, some progressives were put off by his willingness to embrace donations from “good billionaires.” To hardcore progressives, that’s an oxymoron. He’s also rankled some progressives with his establishmentarian support of a strong US-Israel relationship — an issue that caused major 2024 divisions in the Democratic Party and sapped leftist enthusiasm for the Harris campaign. In that context, he’s been known to play an identity card of his own: Raised as a Catholic, Martin has used the fact that his mother is Jewish to try shutting down his challengers on the topic.

    If Democrats were seeking to infuse a trace of genuine masculinity into the party’s brand, it couldn’t have chosen a worse duo than Martin and Hogg. For starters, the married-with-two-kids, mild-mannered Martin comes from the same is-that-guy-really-straight mold as Tim Walz, the Dems’ exceedingly cringy 2024 veep candidate: 

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    Then there’s Hogg, the noodle-armed leftist and perpetual meme-target who deftly exploited his status as a student at school victimized by a mass shooter, becoming a gun control activist and snagging a Harvard University acceptance letter. On Saturday, he persuaded delegates that he’s just the man to win back the many young men and women who abandoned the Democratic nuthouse in November. 

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    Here’s Hogg last year, being nicely eviscerated on his core issue by a Chinese immigrant who escaped Communism and understands why the Constitution protects the human right of armed self-defense: 

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    As incoming chair, Martin takes over from a black man, Jaime Harrison. Despite being the first non-woman or “person of color” in 14 years to lead the party, some Democrats see Martin’s election as a cause for sorrow. “Black women have always been the backbone of our party. We show up our communities, our party and our party in every election,” former DNC staffer Marilyn Davis told Politico. “Yet time and time again, we are overlooked when it comes to the top leadership positions in our party.”

    As for the black female candidates who were “overlooked” in favor of Martin, here’s the unorthodox campaign speech of Dr (PhD) Quintessa Hathaway: 

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    Apparently, that was just a warm-up…

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    And here’s a vice-chair also-ran demanding that delegates shut up and listen to her — not out of courtesy, of course, but out of deference to her position on the identity-politics totem pole: 

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    Speaking of gender and sexuality, the identify-politics madness of the American left was hilariously illustrated when “gender-balancing” rules threw a monkey wrench in the officer elections, leaving everyone in the room baffled about how in the flying &%$# to apply them: 

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    There was plenty more to laugh at — and plenty of reasons for Republicans to think the Democrats are still drowning in Marxist identity politics, and completely detached from what most American normies want out of their government:  

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/02/2025 – 19:50

  • Trump Effect Continues: Panama Bends The Knee, Will Not Renew "Silk Road" Deal With China After Rubio Visit
    Trump Effect Continues: Panama Bends The Knee, Will Not Renew “Silk Road” Deal With China After Rubio Visit

    The Trump administration is not messing around.

    Let’s review. In the past thirteen days;

    • Elon Musk’s DOGE descended upon the US Treasury and revealed that we’ve been ‘auto paying’ all sorts of bad actors, including terrorist groups. DOGE then kicked the door down at Deep State slush fund USAID, where employees were placed on paid leave last week for trying to circumvent Trump’s orders, causing a massive Democrat freakout.
    • Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent a worldwide cable announcing the end of DEI policies within State, prioritizing American interests, and told his Chinese counterpart that America is done kowtowing.

    See below for more!

      And now, Rubio has convinced Panama not to renew its deal with China’s Belt and Road economic program, after applying pressure to the Panamanian government to immediately take steps to address US concerns over Chinese businesses operating ports near the canal – which President Trump says represents a threat to US national security.

      “Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal,” said US State Department spox Tammy Bruce.

      Trump had also refused to rule out the use of military force over Panama, while US officials said in a senate hearing last week that fines and restrictions on Panamanian-flag vessels entering US ports could be imposed due to the dispute over the canal.

      Now, Secretary of State Rubio has convinced Panama to reverse course on their deal with China – with President Jose Mulino making an announcement following a “respectful and cordial” meeting with Rubio in which Panama also agreed to expand a July MoU so that Venezuelans, Colombians and Ecuadoreans can be returned from the perilous Darien Gap at U.S. cost, through an airstrip in Panama, Reuters reports.

      According to the PanAm Post, Panama will not renew the memorandum of understanding on the “Silk Road” signed with China.

      “We are going to study the possibility of whether it can be finished earlier or not. I think it is due for renewal in one or two years,” said Molino.

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      As one ZH reader, the esteemed Pooper Popper, noted earlier today…

      • All federal prosecutors handling January 6th cases fired, computers locked and marched out of their offices by security.
      • David Sundberg, the FBI Assistant Director at the helm of the January 6th investigations, has been fired.
      • 20 leaders of FBI field offices have been escorted out of FBI buildings around the country
      • The 51 intelligence officers who spread misinformation about Hunter Biden’s laptop and interfered in elections are now banned from entering federal properties.
      • Federal employees are now required to return to the office, with non-compliance leading to termination.
      • John Bolton and John Brennan have been permanently banned from government buildings.
      • Jarold Harold Rogers has been indicted for compromising U.S. trade secrets to China.
      • Ban on all use of pronouns in government communications.
      • All 2 million Feds sent a resignation offer.

      At this rate both Canada and Greenland will be US territories by the end of the month.

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      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 19:15

    • "Legitimately FAKE NEWS": White House Debunks Dem Freakout Over DOGE Access To "Secure Spaces" As Musk Drops Redpills Over USAID Biolabs
      “Legitimately FAKE NEWS”: White House Debunks Dem Freakout Over DOGE Access To “Secure Spaces” As Musk Drops Redpills Over USAID Biolabs

      The latest Democrat freakout is over the speed and effectiveness of Elon Musk’s DOGE crew – having recently descended upon the US Treasury – only to discover we’ve been auto-paying everyone, including “known fraudulent or terrorist groups.”

      Now, there’s a massive freakout going on over DOGE’s access to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) headquarters, where two top security officials were reportedly put on leave after they tried to block DOGE officials from accessing systems at the agency.

      As it turns out, Musk’s team gaining access to USAID – the deep state’s international slush fund, which notably gave Wuhan Lab collaborator EcoHealth Alliance a $4.67 million grant in 2021, then stonewalled when asked for documents – and handed Ukrainian energy giant Burisma a lucrative contract months after Hunter Biden joined its board, and gave $15 million to organizations linked to George Soros – kicked a massive hornet’s nest.

      In a Sunday letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee penned an angry screed expressing “deep concern” about the USAID office.

      “We received reports that individuals who identified themselves as working for the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) accessed USAID’s main headquarters, including classified spaces. While some of the individuals purported to have security clearances, it is unclear whether those who accessed secure classified facilities had proper clearance or what they were seeking to access.”

      Except, that’s total bullshit according to White House assistant comms director Steven Cheung, who posted to X that the report is “Legitimately FAKE NEWS,” and “Not even remotely true at all.”

      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsMeanwhile, Musk has been dropping USAID redpills all weekend. For example:

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      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 18:20

    • "Did You Mean Trains?": State Dept. Scrubs Transgenderism Out Of Existence
      “Did You Mean Trains?”: State Dept. Scrubs Transgenderism Out Of Existence

      Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

      President Trump’s purge of DEI nonsense from government departments continues to proceed full steam ahead with the terms ‘Trans’ being completely wiped from the State Department website.

      People have noticed that inputting the term in the search box on the site returns a message ‘no results found,’ and follows up with “Did you mean trains?”

      Whether that suggestion is intentional or not, it’s hilarious.

      It really reminds you of how far down that road the Biden regime tried to take America.

      Others remarked that the ‘T’ and all the other gender alphabet stuff that was pinned on after it has been removed from references to LGB.

      On day one of his second term,Trump signed an executive order titled Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to The Federal Government.

      The order states “It is the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.”

      As we highlighted last week, Trump has also instructed the State Department to issue an order to enforce a worldwide “one flag” policy, meaning only the Stars and Stripes can be flown on U.S. embassies.

      Trump has also ordered all federal employees to remove pronouns from their email signatures.

      The new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also circulated a memo stating that ‘cultural awareness’ and ‘identity’ dates will no longer be recognised.

      Hegseth has also directed staff to create a DEI task force to make sure all such programs are erased from the Pentagon.

      “We’re not joking around,” Hegseth said in an interviews last week, adding “There’s no changing of names or softly manipulating something. DEI is gone.”

      The same thing is happening at the FBI.

      DEI really is dead.

      *  *  *

      Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 17:30

    • Rickards: A US Recession Is Coming
      Rickards: A US Recession Is Coming

      Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

      The new Trump administration is off to a fast start. All of the key nominations for the Trump cabinet and White House staff have been made, the Senate confirmation hearings (where needed) have mostly been held and some of the key positions have already been filled. Trump signed a large pile of Day One executive orders over the course of January 20 and 21 immediately after the inauguration. More executive orders are in the pipeline.

      This all stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s 2016 transition process where the nominees were not well chosen, confirmation went slowly, and the deep state holdovers from the Obama administration were still in place. What a difference four years makes.

      We are extremely optimistic about Trump’s economic plans. Whether by executive order, regulatory processes or legislation, Trump will be pursuing lower taxes, less regulation, and higher tariffs on foreign trading partners in order to promote high-paying jobs in the U.S.

      Some complain that Trump’s America First policies may hurt growth in places like China, India and Brazil. That’s entirely possible but too bad. China needs to figure out how to Make China Great Again. That’s China’s job, not the job of the United States.Trump’s job is to Make America Great Again and he’s off to a good start.

      The U.S. Consumer of Last Resort

      Simply put, the U.S. consumes more than it produces. Americans buy consumer goods and solar panels from China, semiconductors from Taiwan, steel from Japan and automobiles from Korea. The difference is purchased from abroad and paid for with U.S. dollars, which foreign central banks use to load up on U.S. debt.

      The U.S. runs a trade deficit along with a budget deficit and is in debt to the world. Those days are over. Asians, Africans and Latin Americans can still sell goods to the U.S. but they’ll have to manufacture those goods in the U.S. to get over high tariff walls. The result is good paying jobs in America.

      With higher earnings, Americans can save more. Foreign investment in the U.S. will also rise as foreign manufacturers build here to avoid tariffs. Eventually, higher savings and higher investment will close the production gap and reduce the trade deficit. Among other consequences, look for a stronger dollar as the world scrambles for dollars to invest here. That makes the rest of the world cheaper for U.S. consumers and reduces inflation also. It’s a win-win-win policy.

      3 Threats on the Horizon

      The fact that Trump’s policies are sound, and the long-term economic prospects are good, should not divert us from the fact that there are serious economic challenges in the near-term. These will not be Trump’s fault because they have been years in the making. But the damage may emerge early in Trump’s term.

      This scenario is not unlike the start of Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1981. The U.S. had its worst recession since the end of World War II during 1981-82. (We’ve had worse recessions since, but 1981-82 was the worst up until that time).

      It took a few years for Reagan’s policies to take effect. The period 1983-1986 was one of the strongest growth spurts in recent history with 16% compounded real growth. But we had to get through a rough patch first.

      Here’s a summary of three economic threats to investors that may emerge over 2025 before we get to higher ground expected in 2026 and beyond:

      1. Stock Market Crash

      Markets are at or near all-time highs based on every available metric: P/E ratios, the CAPE ratio, market cap/GDP ratio, concentration risk, etc. This stock market bubble is amplified by indexing, investor complacency and analyst euphoria. When such conditions have existed in the past, they have always been followed by market crashes of 50% to 90% unfolding over several years. Examples include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1929), the Nikkei (1989), NASDAQ (2000), and the S&P 500 Index (2008).

      We are now positioned for an historic crash. The specific cause does not matter – it could be war, natural disaster, a bank or hedge fund collapse or other unexpected event. What matters is the super-fragility of the market when the trigger is pulled. This is why Warren Buffett has over $300 billion in cash and why central banks are buying gold.

      Investors should prepare now; don’t be the last one to know. Strategies include reducing allocations to stocks, increasing allocations to cash and purchasing some gold (up to 10% of your investable assets) to participate in a flight to quality.

      2. A U.S. Recession Is Coming

      This is problematic for stocks independent of any crash potential. Inflation has persisted, energy prices are back up to interim highs, unemployment is going up, job hiring is frozen, and the manufacturing sector is contracting.

      Federal reserve rate cuts won’t help. They do not provide “stimulus.” Rate cuts are a sign of economic weakness, not strength. The Fed is not leading the interest rate market. They are following the market down.

      Of course, a recession could trigger a market crash. But even if it does not, recessions are typically associated with 30% declines in stock valuations over a year or less. The investment strategy for a recession is substantially the same as the crash strategy.

      3. Currency Wars Are Back and Trade Wars Are Coming

      The super-strong dollar today makes it difficult for other countries to buy U.S. goods. Tariffs will make the global dollar shortage worse as foreign investors seek dollars to jump the tariff walls and invest directly in the U.S.

      Both the strong dollar and the coming U.S. tariffs invite retaliation by trading partners who will put up their own tariff walls. The result will be a global contraction in trade that could resemble the trade collapse of the 1930s during the Great Depression. U.S. stocks fell 85% from October 1929 to June 1932 during that episode of trade wars. A repeat could be on the way if economies such as China (that should be boosting consumption) choose to fight trade wars instead.

      We’ll be closely monitoring all these threats and provide you with the best in analysis and recommendations in the coming weeks and months.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 16:20

    • Zelensky: Trump Talking To Putin About Ukraine Without Us Is 'Very Dangerous'
      Zelensky: Trump Talking To Putin About Ukraine Without Us Is ‘Very Dangerous’

      Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that Russia and the United States are already talking about how to wind down the Russia-Ukraine war and this is “very dangerous” without Ukraine’s direct input.

      He said in an Associated Press interview published Saturday, “They may have their own relations, but talking about Ukraine without us — it is dangerous for everyone.” Zelensky issued this assessment the day after the Trump White House confirmed that discussions at a “general level” are happening with Moscow and that an in-person meeting between presidents will take place ‘soon’.

      According to an AP summary of Zelensky’s words:

      Speaking in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, Zelenskyy said Russia does not want to engage in ceasefire talks or to discuss any kind of concessions, which the Kremlin interprets as losing at a time when its troops have the upper hand on the battlefield.

      He said U.S. President Donald Trump could bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the table with the threat of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and banking system, as well as continued support of the Ukrainian military.

      “I think these are the closest and most important steps,” he said in the interview in the Ukrainian capital that lasted for more than an hour.

      Zelensky did express openness to eventually entering negotiations with Putin, despite current active legislation which forbids entering direct communication with Moscow so long as Putin is head of state.

      But he emphasized Trump and Kiev should be on the same page first. “I believe that, first and foremost, we (must) hold a meeting with him, and that is important. And that is, by the way, something that everyone in Europe wants,” Zelensky said, describing this would be based on “a common vision of a quick end to the war.”

      But importantly, Zelensky defines a key part of this ‘common vision’ as a path to NATO membership. “I really believe that these are the cheapest security guarantees that Ukraine can get, the cheapest for everyone,” he said.

      Putin has rejected this as a non-starter, and Trump too knows that negotiations would never get off the ground if this is held to.

      Zelensky continued, after the conversation with Trump, “we should move on to some kind of format of conversation with Russians. And I would like to see the United States of America, Ukraine and the Russians at the negotiating table. … And, to be honest, a European Union voice should also be there. I think it would be fair, effective. But how will it turn out? I don’t know.”

      He warned against allowing Putin to take “control” of the war of the narrative, but the reality on the ground especially in the east strongly suggests this has already happened.

      Zelensky said “It will be a signal that it is not for Russia to decide who should be in NATO and who should not, but for the United States of America to decide. I think this is a great victory for Trump.” Zelensky is essentially urging Trump to stand fast on the demand that Ukraine be invited into NATO. Of course, such a scenario could easily trigger WW3.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 15:45

    • Tether Is Back On Bitcoin – Lightning Dominance Is Just Starting
      Tether Is Back On Bitcoin – Lightning Dominance Is Just Starting

      Authored by Guillaume Girard via BitcoinMagazine.com,

      Earlier today at the Plan B Conference in El Salvador, Tether made an announcement that has been years in the making. USDT is back on Bitcoin using Taproot Assets.

      The next steps will be for Tether to mint the asset, which will be available initially via Bitfinex.

      Tether’s return to the Bitcoin ecosystem via Taproot Assets is not just a simple re-entry; it’s a strategic pivot that could herald a new era for both Bitcoin’s Lightning Network (LN) and the broader stablecoin landscape. 

      Credit: https://river.com/learn/what-is-taro-in-bitcoin/

      With USDT now returning to the Bitcoin network in a way that’s also interoperable with Lightning (it has no direct impact on bitcoin the asset – except that it’s massively bullish), users can enjoy the benefits of near-instant, low-fee transactions, which are critical for the practical use of stablecoins in everyday commerce or remittances. The integration is particularly beneficial in regions where financial infrastructure is either lacking or prohibitively expensive.

      Having said that, the Lightning Network is probably not capable of handling the activity and user flow happening on competing chains like Solana or Tron. There’s also the question of how well the Lightning Network will handle the increased load of stablecoin transactions without degrading performance or leading to centralization of node operations due to the need for higher liquidity.

      The answer to this lies in one simple variable: Good infrastructure – and this is where Joltz comes in.

      Also present at the Plan B conference, Joltz’s early bet on Taproot Assets now looks prescient. Joltz introduces some notable advancements in the Bitcoin infrastructure ecosystem with its unique features. It’s one of the only self-custodial mobile wallets supporting Taproot Assets, enabling users to manage multi-asset payments and swaps directly on Bitcoin. Beyond the standalone wallet, Joltz offers a software development kit (SDK) that could be integrated by other developers, reducing the time and cost involved in adding support for these assets, as well as Bitcoin on-chain and Lightning transactions. This could be beneficial for existing crypto wallets, asset issuers, stablecoin platforms, fintechs, payment apps, and exchanges, offering them a pathway to enhance their services with less development effort. Developers who want early access to the Joltz SDK can sign up here.

      Similar to how Trump promised to free Ross on Day 1, we should demand that USDT be supported everywhere on Day 1, with good UX. Joltz will deliver on that – hopefully leading the way for others to see the scale of the opportunity that lies ahead for Bitcoin.

      Now: Why should you even want stablecoins on Bitcoin?

      The recent surge in meme coin activity on Solana has led to significant network congestion, pushing transaction fees to record highs. Solana’s daily fee revenue hit nearly $78 million in late 2024, a direct result of the meme coin boom, but this came at the cost of higher transaction fees and occasional network congestion, challenging the user experience. Similarly, Tron has faced its own challenges with transaction fees. Tron’s daily fee revenue has been reported to surpass $5 million, reflecting its significant role in handling stablecoin transactions but also highlighting the pressure on its heavily centralized network. We want those fees on Bitcoin, for miners and routing operators.

      LN offers nearly infinite scalability by allowing transactions to occur off-chain, only settling on Bitcoin when necessary. This approach contrasts starkly with the scalability struggles of single-layer blockchains like Solana and Tron.

      Furthermore, with LN, there’s potential for new financial products. Locking Bitcoin within Lightning channels can open up yield-generating opportunities like liquidity provision (leasing) or even more complex financial instruments related to routing, providing users with new ways to generate NATIVE Bitcoin Yields not based on questionable practices. (Also see my recent report on Bitcoin Stablecoins.)

      The announcement today underscores a broader lesson in the crypto space: while specific chains like Solana and Tron have made strides in speed and cost, true scalability requires time and a lot of investment into infrastructure to guarantee decentralization and trustless exit: otherwise what’s the point? Centralized chains lead on Stablecoins is temporary – Bitcoin is forever.

      Tether’s return to Bitcoin through Taproot Assets signifies a vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s evolving capabilities. It’s a testament to the innovation within the Bitcoin space and a reminder of how foundational technologies like Bitcoin can adapt and expand to meet new demands despite the yapping of high-time preference critics of LN focused on chasing distractions instead of true utility (meow).

      This move could very well set the stage for further innovations in decentralized finance (DeFi) on Bitcoin (BTCfi), reshaping how we think about Bitcoin as the ultimate Settlement Layer for all types of economic activity.

      Welcome back Tether! <3

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 15:10

    • All About The New Trump Tariffs, And Why The Hysteria Is Overblown
      All About The New Trump Tariffs, And Why The Hysteria Is Overblown

      By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

      What a week! DeepSeek, Cheap AI, the Fed, some Mag 7 earnings, and now tariffs! We hope that you had your Amps Cranked to 11!

      From that “Amps to 11” report, I remain somewhat confused about why Bitcoin is unable to break higher! It is below $100k as we write this report. Virtually everything we’ve seen from the Trump administration seems to point to good news for crypto. It seems that not just in D.C., but also across the globe and at various state levels, the crypto community is using their influence and contributions to shape policy to their liking. Yet, Bitcoin acts more and more like a “normal” risk asset than something revolutionary about to be bought by a variety of central banks and governments! I do like the EU’s Lagarde’s adamance that Bitcoin will not be part of any reserves within the EU!

      The first wave of tariffs have been announced.

      10% on China and Canadian Energy Products.
      25% on everything else from Canada and on Mexico.

      The assertion is that these tariffs are linked to these countries not doing enough to fight the fentanyl trade, presumably providing an off-ramp if these countries demonstrate progress on the front.

      Stopping The Flow of Fentanyl

      The president has gone out of his way to link these tariffs to the flow of fentanyl. That is important as it seems that if Canada, Mexico, or China demonstrate new or improved efforts to stop the manufacturing and distribution of fentanyl, the tariffs can be rescinded.

      For China, I’m not sure what steps they can take, but they were only hit with a 10% tariff, and for China in particular, this is likely to be only the first step in a tariff battle or negotiation (depending on your perspective).

      Presumably, Mexico can hit the cartels hard and use those efforts to get the tariffs lifted.

      In Canada, the focus has been on the precursors of fentanyl. The precursors are all legal in Canada making it, apparently, a hub for sourcing and potentially manufacturing fentanyl. Ottawa (the Canadian equivalent of D.C. ) has been trying to cut the time it takes to ban something from 36 months to 6 months, with the pledge of creating a “Chemical Precursor Risk Management Unit” within Health Canada (many wonder why the RCMP isn’t more directly involved). In any case there seems to be a lot of scope for Canada to “improve” their efforts to disrupt the fentanyl trade, which could be their path out of these tariffs.

      So, the first thing that we are looking for is whether these countries “up their anti-fentanyl games” and whether that satisfies the president.

      If they do that, this round of tariffs may be short-lived.

      Some Tariff Basics

      Report after report I read seems to jump straight to either the good from tariffs (getting others to pay our taxes, advantage to American manufacturing, etc.) or to the doom and gloom of tariffs (inflation, trade wars, etc.). While we all understand the basics of tariffs, or at least I think I do, it seems worth spending a minute or two making sure that we are all on the same page.

      My understanding is that the importer of a good pays the tariff to the government at the port or place of entry of the good into the country.

      So, if you pay $100 for something from Canada or Mexico, you pay a $25 tariff, and your cost has increased to $125.

      Which begs the question – who pays the $25 tariff?

      One of the first things most importers will do is ask for a reduction in price from the exporter. If I was doing business thinking that something was only going to cost $100 and it now costs $125, I’d try to negotiate my purchase price down.

      What I find “interesting” is if the exporter takes a 20% haircut, the price stays at $100. 20% off of $100 is $80. Then a 25% tariff on something for $80 is $20, getting us back to $100.

      Step 1 is getting a discount, where even a 10% discount means the tariff only increases costs by 12.5%.

      Now let’s look at the FX market (which maybe we should have done before step 1, but it would be a pain to rewrite stuff, and it isn’t really a step, as it is outside the control of the importer and the exporter, though no less important).

      Since the summer, the Peso has declined by 20% versus the dollar and since late September, the Canadian Dollar has dropped by around 18%.

      Let’s say that back in September, a Canadian exporter was happy to get paid 135 CAD. That translates into 100 USD for the importer. Let’s say that the Canadian exporter is still happy to accept the equivalent of 135 CAD. That drops the USD price to 93 for the importer. Making the “new” cost to the importer, including the tariff, “only” $116.25. This is all moving around in real time and has been a cumulative move, so this is a massive oversimplification, but still relevant.

      The currency market is already helping the importer.

      Step 2 is for the importer to figure out what amount of profit he is willing to forgo, if any. Assuming the importer was paying $100 it seems reasonable to assume that the price for the consumer is significantly more. For argument’s sake, let’s say the final price was $200. There is distribution and selling costs, etc. that the importer pays to sell the product on to the next leg. Maybe $200 is too high? Possibly, but I’m not sure it is that unreasonable for many finished goods. Now $25 out of $200 is “only” 12.5%. Giving up 12.5% is probably too much, but is 5% reasonable?

      So, let’s look at this possibility (which as a whole, doesn’t seem too far-fetched to me).

      Negotiate a 10% discount from the Canadian or Mexican exporter. Argue that it is “temporary” but crucial if you don’t want me (the importer) looking for alternative suppliers. Add in that you (the exporter) will also take a hit.

      So, the Canadian exporter reduces the cost from 135 CAD to 121.5 CAD (in hopes it is temporary, and they don’t want to risk losing this customer to another provider of such goods).

      Due to the big increase in the USD, the cost is only $83.40 (the importer has been making a lot of extra money in the past few months, but that is always a risk and may well have been hedged).

      The 25% tariff is $20.85, bringing the total cost to $104.25.

      In your planning, as of a month or two ago, you were anticipating a cost of $100. It is now just under $105. Do you raise your final prices, or leave them, at least for a little while, anticipating Canada (or Mexico) will make progress on fentanyl and the tariff will go away? That seems at least plausible, and it might depend on how easy it is for you to raise and lower prices. Is the hit to profit margin, hopefully a temporary one, worth not having to deal with a new supplier?

      If the alternative supplier is Canadian or Mexican, they have the same problem.

      If the supplier is from elsewhere, presumably there will be some logistics in getting their goods over in time.
      The alternative, an American supplier, does look better as they were just given an effective cost benefit, but not really a 25% cost benefit. The dollar strength takes away some of the desire to shift to a domestic supplier. Presumably, the domestic supplier was already more expensive (or not as good, or there is some other reason why they weren’t being used). So, even with the indirect competitive boost, is it worth it?

      Let’s circle back to the first major topic under tariffs – this round seems to have a “built-in” off-ramp, just by fighting fentanyl harder.

      Bottom line is that the combination of currency shifts and the potentially short-lived nature of these tariffs seem unlikely to result in big shifts in supply chains, and with both the exporter and importer taking some short-term pain (under the assumption it will be short-lived), there could be very little impact on the consumer.

      I’m prepared to be wrong about this, but I think that is the outcome, at least in the next few weeks and even months.

      Some Caveats to the Rosy Outlook

      There are several very real risks to the potentially rosy outlook we paint in the previous section:

      • Specialty producers, whether final goods or inputs, tend to be far less likely to negotiate discounts. They typically view themselves as having some degree of pricing power.
      • The currency argument works well on goods already in inventory. The issue with the currency, over time, is that the countries experiencing the devaluation often experience higher costs of production (the raw materials increase in cost in their currency). So, it may work short-term, but over time, doesn’t help as much.
      • The belief that there is an actual off-ramp that will be taken by the respective governments, in regard to fentanyl may be low. We have treated it as a likely scenario and many companies might be less sure of that.
      • Countries may choose to respond harshly, launching their own retaliatory tariffs. The threat of this is almost certain (and it is already being threatened) which could lead to additional rounds of tariffs, and the hope of this being short-lived and tied to fentanyl, evaporating.

      The USMCA

      The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is 1,889 pages long. Lots of “white space” in the document, legal mumbo jumbo, etc., but the document isn’t short. I suspect that a lot of lobbyists in each country were able to push their agendas through. While I’m not sure I’ve ever heard an American say they “won” the negotiations, I’ve also never seen any Canadians celebrating a big “win” with this agreement either.

      It is coming due to expire and this is just a first salvo by the Trump administration to increase their power as the countries likely sit down to negotiate this deal going forward.

      But anything that is almost 2,000 pages long likely has a lot of wins for everyone (and some losses) and demonstrates the incredibly difficult nature of cross-border trade, especially with two countries that you share long borders with.

      The Auto Industry

      We only highlight the auto industry as it is designed to work most efficiently by seamlessly shifting parts, equipment, and manufacturing steps between countries.

      This is an industry that I think, in general, has found a happy medium and has been able to satisfy constituents in the countries involved while being as efficient as possible.

      I do not see how blanket tariffs work well given what I know of the industry.

      I think there could be some backlash from this industry in particular, as it further complicates an already complex and difficult operating environment.

      Golf Clubs

      In Learning to Speak Trump Again, we highlighted the complexity of international trade and the nuanced rules that seem to be important for exporters and importers to maximize profit. We used golf drivers as an example and ChatGPT confirmed that yes, the “assembled in America” label is largely an effort to reduce the cost of duties.

      So, guess that is our way of saying, above and beyond all the things we have listed that can be done to mitigate the impact of the tariffs, we have likely only scratched the surface.

      Some Concerns on Energy

      Of all the areas that could be impacted, energy seems to be the one where we could see some immediate impact. The reasons listed below are likely why the administration chose to “only” hit

      Canadian energy products with a 10% tariff. Some of the most important, unique risks to energy are as follows:

      • Energy products are priced in dollars and trade in dollars, so the currency effects of a stronger dollar will not play a helpful role.
      • Much of the oil that is refined in the Midwest comes from Canada. The refiners are optimized for the heavier crude that comes out of Canada, rather than the sweet/light crude that comes from the Permian Basin. There are workarounds, but this could be an issue over time.
      • While the U.S. is a net exporter of gasoline, the situation is more complex. Largely due to the Jones Act, the U.S. exports a lot of fuel, largely from the Southern U.S. to South America. The Atlantic Coast actually imports a lot of fuel, primarily into New York. It primarily comes from Canada and Europe (which is my understanding). Due to the distances involved, and the types of ships required to offset any imports from Canada, it is doubtful that we will be able to offset Canadian imports quickly. Supposedly, margins are relatively thin at the moment for the Canadian fuel producers, greatly reducing their ability to cut prices. We could see a rise in fuel prices at the pump on the Atlantic Coast fairly quickly, which would be an issue.
        • Just want to highlight “Shipping” as a recurring theme for Academy. In this case it is our own regulations causing potential issues, but it also highlights the fact that the U.S. has very little in the way of current shipbuilding capacity – something that is affecting the Navy’s ability not just to grow, but also to replenish its fleet. This isn’t directly related to our current work on shipping (advising clients to think about supply chains, not just in terms of countries or regions of manufacturing, but also in terms of the robustness of their shipping routes).

      If there is one area that has been mentioned as being carved out, it is energy. That would make sense, as we could see some immediate inflation on the very product (the cost of gasoline at the pump) that the president has been focused on bringing down in price, not raising!

      Bottom Line

      At the moment, I’m not that worried:

      • The lack of real concern largely stems from the view that at least Canada and Mexico can make use of the fentanyl off-ramp and reduce the lifespan of the tariffs to months, if not weeks.
        • Given the view that these really will be “temporary” we should be able to see workarounds for most products, which reduce the impact.
        • So far, the reactions from the other countries hint that this may devolve away from a fentanyl related issue into something more difficult to exit (in fact it may escalate given the current tone from other countries).
      • What has been done so far seems to indicate that this is a “moderate” Trump (by Trump’s standards) who is listening, at least to some extent, to the people in his administration. The fact that they treated Canadian Energy differently shows a level of thought (and concern about prices at the pump) that gives some comfort that the process of potential retaliation and off-ramps can be managed.

      I’m moderately concerned that we could be hit on the energy side rather soon and that could be disruptive for the economy and D.C.

      In the back of my mind, I’m worried that the administration will like the revenue generated from tariffs and turn what should be a temporary package into a long-term reality, where they layer on more tariffs to more countries. Then a lot of the offsets we’ve discussed do not work well, and we should prepare for a more difficult economic environment. So far that fear is “in the back of my mind” but it is there and is a non-zero risk.

      Messy but manageable. That is our theme and continues to be the theme.

      I’m moderately bearish both equities and bonds, but moderate is the key word. Whether you are bullish or bearish, buy dips, sell rallies, and stay nimble. I’m beginning to think that you should “imagine the people that create the headlines are day-trading their own headlines” and you will do quite well. When things seem to be going too smoothly, expect them to reverse (and vice versa).

      Good luck and welcome to February! January was full of surprises, good, bad, and tragic (fires in California and a plane crash in D.C.), and I fully expect February to keep us on our toes, though hopefully without tragedies like we saw last month

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 14:35

    • Gold Hits New Record High; Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control?
      Gold Hits New Record High; Dear Jerome Powell, Is Everything Under Control?

      Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

      Gold does not believe the Fed has things under control and neither do I.

      Image from Trading Economics, Annotations by Mish.

      Gold Hits Record High on Safe-Haven Demand Amid Tariff Threats

      Reuters reports Gold hits record high on safe-haven demand amid tariff threats

      Gold prices rose to hit a lifetime high on Thursday, sparked by safe-haven demand due to U.S. tariff threats, while the focus was also on a crucial inflation report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

      “We are seeing keener uncertainty and anxiety about the Trump administration’s new policies on trade and foreign policy … fresh technical buying coming in as prices are trending higher now in both gold and silver,” said Jim Wyckoff, a senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.

      Earlier this week, the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump planned to hit Mexico and Canada with steep tariffs on Saturday and was also considering some on China.

      The U.S. gold market has been trading at a premium since the recent presidential election, the London Bullion Market Association said on Thursday, adding that the association has been closely liaising with the CME Group and U.S. authorities to monitor this trend.

      Gold vs the Dollar

      At the beginning of 2021, the US dollar index was 89. The US dollar index is now 108.

      The price of gold advanced from $1962 to nearly $2900. It’s now about $2850.

      Yet, people still believe moves in the dollar determine moves in the price of gold.

      I suggest the price of gold moves in accordance with long-term inflation and faith in the Fed.

      From 1980 to 2000 there was inflation every step of the way, but gold fell from $850 to $250. There was inflation from 2011 to 2015 when gold fell from $1923 to $1045.

      People thought Greenspan was “The Great Maestro” and Mario Draghi saved the Euro.

      Gold tends to do very poorly in such times and in periods of disinflation.

      A friend of mine emailed some thoughts on what’s changed.

      What’s Changed and What Hasn’t?

      In 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window, a 400 oz. bar of gold had a value of approximately $17,260.

      Today, in 2025, that same 400 oz. bar has a value of approximately $1,140,000.

      Did the gold bar add new and improved features?
      Nope.

      Did the gold bar become substantially more efficient somehow?
      Nope.

      Nothing changed whatsoever about the gold bar. It is exactly the same as it was in 1971.

      What’s changed is persistent Fed and government-sponsored inflation.

      Three Questions of the Day

      1. Is the Fed suddenly going to get things under control?

      2. Will DOGE cut $2 trillion or even $1 trillion in government expenses?

      3. Is Trump going to magically reduce the deficit via tariffs or any other means?

      Gold vs Silver

      Gold acts like money. And central banks hold gold, not silver.

      Silver sometimes acts like a monetary metal and sometimes acts like an industrial commodity.

      But gold’s primary use is that of a monetary metal. Only a miniscule amount is used in industrial purposes.

      Price Stability

      On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would not budge from its two percent inflation goal which it ridiculously defines as “price stability”.

      Bonus Q: Does the lead chart look like price stability?
      A: No, but it does look like periodic misguided faith in central banks.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 14:00

    • USAID Website Goes Dark As Trump Reportedly Plans To Shift Agency Under State Department
      USAID Website Goes Dark As Trump Reportedly Plans To Shift Agency Under State Department

      The website of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) went offline Saturday evening amid reports that the Trump administration was preparing to curtail USAID’s independence by placing it under the direct oversight of the State Department.

      An error message on USAID’s website read: “This site can’t be reached Check if there is a typo in www.usaid.gov. DNS_PROBE_FINISHED_NXDOMAIN.” 

      USAID’s X account was also taken offline. 

      Two sources familiar with the transition told Reuters that a major overhaul is expected in how Washington allocates US foreign aid, with USAID losing its independence and most likely coming under the control of the State Department.

      By late Saturday, a new ‘lite’ page for USAID appeared on the State Department’s website.

      “Trump’s been purging and intimidating USAID employees. Now there’s a rumor he’ll dissolve USAID as an independent agency,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote on X on Friday.

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      Trump has made it very clear to Democrats and their Deep State counterparts that flooding taxpayer dollars into shady NGOs would be coming to an end under his ‘America First’ agenda.

      Last week…

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      Last month, the Trump administration froze nearly all foreign aid programs amid efforts to overhaul the distribution of that aid.

      A post from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) account on X clarified that USAID went on a woke spending spree in third-world countries…

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      Musk responded “True” to Robby Starbuck’s post about USAID laundering taxpayer funds “for Democrats in DC.” And even explained how it worked:

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      “Like I said before, USAID is a front for the CIA.  And together with NGO’s like the Open Society Foundation, they have been using US tax dollars & govt resources as their personal piggy bank. It has been infuriating to watch. Hopefully now the whole truth will come out,” journalist Lara Logan wrote on X. 

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      White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller told CNN an uncomfortable truth: “At USAID, 98% donated to Kamala Harris or other left-wing candidates.”

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      Funding will soon dry up for NGOs and other entities that rely on USAID funds—some of which have been linked to furthering left-wing censorship efforts around the world and funding coups.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 13:25

    • Schumer Under Investigation While Trump Reshapes Washington
      Schumer Under Investigation While Trump Reshapes Washington

      Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

      Senator Chuck Schumer is a lawyer, so presumably he is familiar with the provisions of 18 U.S. Code § 115.

      In case he has forgotten—after all, there are a lot of statutes to keep track of—Edward R. Martin, Jr., the Interim D.C. U.S. Attorney, is in the process of reminding him.

      Among other things, that statute holds that anyone who threatens a federal government official or their family with the “intent to impede, intimidate, or interfere with such official, judge, or law enforcement officer while engaged in the performance of official duties, or with intent to retaliate against such official, judge, or law enforcement officer on account of the performance of official duties,” shall be punished with a term in the slammer, the length of the sentence being dependent on the actual harm caused.

      When the Supreme Court was hearing an abortion case in March 2020, Schumer showed up at a protest rally in front of the Court and shouted, “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh: You have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price.”

      Perhaps Nicholas John Roske had that speech in mind in June 2022. It was then that he traveled from California to Maryland to pay the Kavanaughs a visit. It was not intended to be a friendly visit. In the dead of night, he took a taxi to their home. According to the court filing, he carried a suitcase in which was a “black tactical chest rig and tactical knife, a Glock 17 pistol with two magazines and ammunition, pepper spray, zip ties, a hammer, screwdriver, nail punch, crowbar, pistol light, duct tape, hiking boots with padding on the outside of the soles, and other items.”

      When apprehended, Roske admitted that he had come to kill Brett Kavanaugh. I wonder what Chuck Schumer thought of that. It looks like Edward Martin is going to find out. On Friday, Martin announced not only that he was firing more than two dozen federal prosecutors; he also announced that he was opening an investigation into Schumer for his threats against two U.S. Supreme Court justices. For most mortals, issuing such threats would earn one a visit from the authorities.

      As a paid-up member of the Washington elite, Senator Schumer doubtless thought he was exempt from all such rules. Until January 20, he probably was.

      A lot of things began to change that day.

      If you visit the personal data hoovering site known as Google, you will be informed that, beginning yesterday, February 1, we are in the midst of a month-long feria denominated “Black History Month.” The Pentagon used to celebrate such racially informed pseudo-celebrations as well. But our new Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, put a stop to that right speedily. On Friday, he issued a “Guidance” memorandum titled Identity Months Dead at DoD. Since singling out certain groups for celebration is bad for unity and morale, Hegseth reasoned, the cornucopia of “diversity” months that has covered public calendars like fungi is at an end. “Going forward,” we read,

      DoD Components and Military Departments will not use official resources, to include man-hours, to host celebrations or events related to cultural awareness months, including National African American/Black History Month, Women’s History Month, Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month [! who knew?], Pride Month, National Hispanic Heritage Month, National Disability Employment Awareness Month, and National American Indian Heritage Month.

      Is the page on all that woke insanity really turning? I think it might be. Within hours of taking office,  Donald Trump pounded a stake into the heart of federal DEI initiatives with an executive order prohibiting them. Among other things, that means no more putting your preferred pronouns in your official correspondence. Thank God for that. As Senator John Kennedy put it, “They/them are now was/were.” The mask having been ripped off all these absurdities, they will shrivel and waste away in the cold light of day of what Trump hailed as the “revolution of common sense.” The nonsense will not be easy to revive.

      Elsewhere, Trump is repatriating illegal migrants, freeing hostages, and bringing water back to Southern California, “putting people above fish” (in this case, the tiny Delta Smelt). It also looks like the market in caves in Somalia has taken a serious hit. Yesterday, Trump ordered air strikes against “the Senior Isis attack planner and other terrorists” who were hiding in caves in that ravaged country. The troglodytes, Trump said, threatened the United States. Ergo, he destroyed the caves they live in, and killed many terrorists without, in any way, harming civilians.

      Our Military has targeted this ISIS Attack Planner for years, but Biden and his cronies wouldn’t act quickly enough to get the job done. I did! The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that “WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!”

      The ancien régime just hates it when Trump talks like that. The aspersions cast upon his political opponents, the braggadocio, the typographic bravado—it’s just not the way official Washington is supposed to sound.

      Not, that was, until January 20. Expect a lot more where that came from. I for one, am deeply grateful for it.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 12:50

    • US Army Identifies Female Black Hawk Pilot In DC Jet Crash
      US Army Identifies Female Black Hawk Pilot In DC Jet Crash

      Late Saturday, the US Army’s Public Affairs office confirmed that 28-year-old Capt. Rebecca M. Lobach was the pilot of the Black Hawk helicopter that collided with a regional American Airlines passenger jet near Ronald Reagan National Airport on Wednesday night. The crash claimed the lives of all 64 passengers and crew aboard the plane, as well as three individuals (including Lobach) in the helicopter.

      After Wednesday’s mid-air crash – the deadliest in the US since Nov. 12, 2001 – the Army identified two other soldiers aboard the Black Hawk helicopter as Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves, 39, of Great Mills, Maryland, and  Staff. Sgt. Ryan Austin O’Hara, 28, of Lilburn, Georgia, was the chopper’s crew chief. 

      However, the female pilot was not identified because, according to the service: “At the request of the family, the name of the third soldier will not be released at this time.” 

      On Saturday, CBS News stated that two of the three soldiers have so far been recovered from the wreckage of the Black Hawk in the Potomac River.

      Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed that the helicopter departed from Fort Belvoir in Virginia and was on a routine training mission on Wednesday night.

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      On Friday, President Trump commented on the mid-air accident, confirming that the helicopter was flying at an altitude much greater than the 200-foot ceiling as the regional jet was on final to land at Ronald Reagan National Airport. 

      CBS’ James LaPorta and Faris Tanyos quoted Lobach’s friend, 1st Lt. Samantha Brown, who said her friend also served as a White House social aide during the Biden-Harris administration’s first term.

      Social media sleuths on X found:

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      https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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      The National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration are investigating why the helicopter collided with the commercial jet. 

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 12:15

    • Some Hospitals Stop Transgender Surgeries On Children After Trump's Order
      Some Hospitals Stop Transgender Surgeries On Children After Trump’s Order

      Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

      Hospitals in Colorado, Virginia, and the nation’s capital said on Jan. 30 they have stopped transgender procedures for minors as they evaluate President Donald Trump’s new executive order.

      Denver Health in Colorado has stopped providing transgender surgeries such as breast removal for people under the age of 19, a spokesperson said, in order to comply with the executive order and continue receiving federal funding. It’s not clear whether the hospital will continue providing other transgender procedures and medicine for youth, such as puberty blockers.

      In Virginia, VCU Health and Children’s Hospital of Richmond said it has suspended transgender medication and surgical procedures for those under 19 years old.

      Children’s National Hospital in Washington said the hospital had “paused prescriptions of puberty blockers and hormone therapy to comply with the directives while we assess the situation further.”

      The hospital already did not perform transgender surgeries on minors, according to a spokesperson.

      Trump on Tuesday signed an order titled “Protecting Children From Chemical and Surgical Mutilation.”

      The order says it is now U.S. policy not to fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support “the so-called ’transition’ of a child from one sex to another.” It says the U.S. government “will rigorously enforce all laws that prohibit or limit these destructive and life-altering procedures.”

      The order directs the heads of agencies that provide grants to medical institutions to “immediately take appropriate steps to ensure that institutions receiving Federal research or education grants end the chemical and surgical mutilation of children.”

      Other hospitals, including Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, said after the order was signed that its current practices would continue.

      “Our team will continue to advocate for access to medically necessary care, grounded in science and compassion for the patient-families we are so privileged to serve,” the hospital said.

      The order targets World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH) guidance, which describes procedures such as hormone therapy, puberty blockers, and surgeries such as breast removal for children as “gender-affirming care” that “can be effective and helpful for many transgender adolescents.” The order says agencies shall rescind or amend all policies that rely on the association’s guidance.

      WPATH said in a statement that restrictions and bans on “access to necessary medical care for transgender youth are harmful to patients and their families.”

      The order also directed the U.S. health secretary to take steps to end child sex surgeries, including through Medicare, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to exclude child sex surgeries from the military-run TRICARE health insurance program.

      Tyler Durden
      Sun, 02/02/2025 – 11:40

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