Today’s News 3rd March 2022

• Ukraine Learns The Value Of An Armed Citizenry, But Far Too Late
  Ukraine Learns The Value Of An Armed Citizenry, But Far Too Late

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  In all the world the US as a nation is utterly unique in its tradition of citizen rights to self defense. There is no other protection written into any constitution anywhere that is as solid and unapologetic as the 2nd Amendment. Whenever I end up in a debate with a gun control advocate from another country that wants to “educate me” on the level of firearms ownership overseas I have to laugh because these people just don’t get it.

  There are many countries where some guns are allowed to be owned by the public, but in every case this is treated as a PRIVILEGE which the government can give and take away anytime it pleases. Only in America is gun ownership an individual right regardless of what the government and the so called “majority” likes or dislikes. The government’s opinions on personal firearms are meaningless. The majority’s opinions on gun rights are meaningless. I own guns because natural law and the constitution says I have an inborn right to self defense. And, if someone wants to take those weapons from me they better be prepared to die in the process.

  This is not an attitude shared by most of the rest of the world because most of the world has never fought and defeated a global power to achieve independence. This experience of freedom is not written into their cultural subconscious. In fact, most nations have lived under one level of authoritarianism or another for centuries. Many people inherently want freedom, but very few people have ever risked everything to get it and succeeded.

  The only time you will see a mass awakening in favor of public self defense in these places is when a country faces an existential threat, then suddenly people start to question why they are completely disarmed and helpless.

  

  This is a revelation that the Ukrainian people are experiencing today. As I write this the capital of Kiev is being surrounded by Russian forces and the nation’s government is calling on all able bodied citizens to take up arms and repel the invasion. This all sounds rather noble and the media in the west is waxing romantic about it. However, the situation reveals a foolishness that plagues most countries today. Why wasn’t the Ukrainian public ALREADY armed and organized?

  Ukraine’s gun laws are not as strict as many in Europe or Eastern Europe, but they are certainly not conducive to civilian defense. It’s generally not legal for anyone to own a pistol for any reason other than special government issue, while a person must be at least 25 years old just to qualify for a permit to get a rifle. The types of arms allowed are select and few, and magazines are limited to ten rounds or less. Overwhelmingly, it is the upper middle class and the rich that obtain most of the permits, as is often the case through the majority of Europe. Middle class and poor people are rarely allowed to own firearms.

  I’ll say it again: When some European leftist tries to argue with you online about how there are “gun owners everywhere” in their country despite their strict laws, remind them that firearms ownership is ‘pay to play’ in most countries outside the US. If you are not relatively wealthy you are probably never going to be allowed by the government to get a permit to own a gun. The rich are allowed firearms because the rich are more naturally inclined to support the status quo.

  This kind of elitism has left Ukraine with a highly disarmed population, with only 1 in 10 people having access to weapons of any kind, and a majority of these weapons are bolt action rifles and shotguns which are generally not effective for military defense (unless we are talking about bolt action rifles set up for long range shooting, and there are scant few people that have the knowledge to actually use such tactics effectively). In many countries you aren’t even allowed to own military grade scopes or red dots.

  The reason for this is easy to figure out and it has nothing to do with preventing crime – Rather, government elites want to ensure there is little chance of the public ever overthrowing them should they implement controls that push the people too far. We have seen this everywhere in the wake of covid mandates and vax passport laws.

  There is a reason why these draconian measures were unsuccessful in the US; we are heavily armed and there’s nothing Biden or anyone else can do about it without risking annihilation. It’s the same reason why the US has not seen a major military invasion attempt since the Mexican-American War (I am not counting the minor incursions by the Japanese into Alaska during WWII). An invasion of the US would be a quagmire unlike anything in history and far deadlier than trying to take over a country like Afghanistan.

  This is not opinion, this is FACT given the amount of arms, training and combat knowledge common within the American population. The only way the US can be taken over is from within, which is a subject for another article.

  One area which Americans have failed to remain secure is in the abandonment of the citizen militia, which is an element of the 2nd Amendment that is just as important as gun rights. For many decades we have allowed the National Guard, which is now basically federalized, to take the place of the militia system. This is completely unacceptable and not a viable replacement in any way. Luckily, there has been a resurgence of local organization in recent years, and though the “M word” has yet to make a major reappearance, this is what will inevitably happen as mainstream systems continue to fail and people look to their own communities for safety instead of the government.

  In Ukraine there used to be a more concerted citizen call-up effort but again, this was a strictly centralized government affair. The only organized militias in the country are among the pro-Russian separatists. Today, as Russia invades, the Ukrainians don’t even have basic measures in place. Their ability to hold off the Russians at all is predicated on American missile systems like the Javelin which are being steadily funneled into the Ukrainian military.

  SIDE NOTE: Also, the methods which Ukrainian forces are using to ambush Russian tank columns are rather advanced and familiar. I suspect the possibility that there are outside military “advisers” (perhaps US advisers) on the ground right now in Ukraine. The advanced guerrilla-style ambush tactics and the results look similar to training that is often given to Green Berets or SAS. The UK did send anti-tank weapons along with a small group of “trainers” to Ukraine in January.

  Maybe I am mistaken, but if this is the case it would be diplomatically disastrous if such adviser teams were ever discovered to be involved in the fighting.

  Despite all the help from the west, large chunks of Ukraine territory are now in the hands of Russia including two major cities so far. The Ukrainian government has offered to arm up any citizen who wants to fight, but the training I have observed in video footage is clearly substandard. Most of these people have never handled military grade arms in their lives, never fired a gun and never shot a 3-5 round group at 100 yards let alone faced the prospect of a two-way firing range and the sheer panic this can cause in untrained men.

  Even more disturbing to me is that many of these call-ups for volunteers are peppered with women young and old. Guys bringing along their tiny girlfriends and wives as if the whole thing is a vacation at a Crossfit camp. This is delusional for a number of reasons, including the fact that having a loved one (especially a female) with you in the middle of combat can be a deadly distraction from the mission. Where is the soldier’s attention going to be? On the enemy in front of him, or his wife next to him who is screaming in horror as bullets zip past her head? When she realizes it’s not like the movies where every woman is a natural sniper that can go hand-to-hand with 200 pound men, will she then try to convince her husband to abandon the fight and leave with her?

  It boggles the mind! At least make sure the women and children are safe in another place before going to fight.

  The reason this desperation is happening at all is because of Ukraine’s complete lack of readiness. I find it hard to believe that president Zelenskyy was really tricked into believing that Putin was bluffing about invasion. Even if he thought that was the case, he should have been preparing defenses anyway and forming citizen militias. He had months of prior warning to do this, yet he did not.

  I’m not going to field any theories here on why the Ukraine government was so unprepared (though I have a pretty solid idea), and it’s not my intention to support one side or the other politically. As I have written in previous articles, Ukraine is a globalist engineered distraction from bigger things, including the inflationary decline of the global economy. My purpose here is to examine the reasons why Ukraine was so easily invaded and to use it as a cautionary lesson.

  The bottom line is this: If Ukraine had true self defense rights and a militia system in place then Russia may not have been able to invade at all.

  I also find it interesting that the political left in the US, which has always been rabidly anti-gun rights for decades, is now cheering the prospect of the Ukrainian government arming civilians to fight a guerrilla war against the Russians. This reveals a dangerous hypocrisy which conservatives have suspected for some time – Leftists are not necessarily “anti-gun”, they are are just anti-gun when it comes to any person that disagrees with their ideology. When crisis strikes they become pro-gun, as long as they are the only people with guns.

  The Ukraine event sets an important example for conservatives and moderates in America in that it reinforces the reality that owning guns alone is not enough. Local organization and public militias are the key to the survival of a society under threat. In fact, public militias can even act as a deterrent to future attacks from without AND from within.

  Finally, local organization requires time and training. It’s not something you can slap together at the last minute and trying to form public security groups after an attack has already occurred is going to be a mess. One thing that has always bothered me about the Hollywood notion of the Red Dawn scenario and tales of regular people networking to fight foreign invaders is that these unprepared groups rarely if ever actually get very far in a real life fight. Rather, its the groups of people that were ready BEFORE the crisis happened that make the most difference.

  You almost never see prepared people portrayed in the movies. I suspect because mainstream society has been conditioned to view preparedness as militancy, and militancy as extremism. God forbid a person is labeled as “extremist,” better to be apathetic and ineffective. It is always the people that step outside the artificial limitations of the mainstream that end up making a difference in the world, and it’s always the people that conform that end up becoming refugee fodder and victims of the historic tides. The Ukrainians are paying the price right now for this kind of attitude, lets not allow the same thing to happen here in America. It’s time to organize.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 23:40

• A Guide To Cannabis In The US
  A Guide To Cannabis In The US

  Providing an overview of the status of cannabis in the U.S. is challenging at best. On the federal level, things are fairly straight forward. Cannabis is federally illegal and has been for 88 years and counting. But, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop and Aran Ali detail below, getting down to the state level, however, changes things.

  This map from Tenacious Labs breaks down the legal status of cannabis across every U.S. state, and details how lenient each one is when it comes to criminalization.

  

  No Cannabis Allowed

  Cannabis—the plant from which marijuana is made—is still considered a dangerous and criminal substance in many U.S. states. In fact, there are six states where cannabis is illegal, of which five are yet to decriminalize. This means an individual can be criminally prosecuted for possessing certain amounts.

  

  Most states began decriminalizing marijuana decades ago, but not all have chosen to partake in this trend. Prosecutors in Alabama for example are able to charge someone with a felony offense for possessing marijuana.

  In most states where cannabis is illegal, it is not decriminalized. In particular, only one illegal state has decriminalized the substance—Nebraska.

  Medical Use Only

  In some U.S. states, approved medical usage of cannabis could be a precursor towards full legalization. Just as it was for states like California and Oregon. However, some states that allow medical usage have chosen not to decriminalize cannabis for recreational purposes.

  Many states have lists of qualifying conditions which allow a person to carry prescribed amounts of cannabis—often for ailments like glaucoma or cancer. States like Iowa allow cannabis to treat medical conditions, but only if it is CBD-based rather than THC-based.

  Interestingly enough, all CBD-based cannabis products with THC levels less than or equal to 0.3% are fully legal on a federal level.

  Cannabis Allowed

  Some states are famously legal, like Colorado. The legalization of cannabis in Colorado, for example, has added numerous jobs, investments, and a new market to the economy—not to mention billions of dollars.

  Overall, there are 18 states (and Washington D.C.) which have fully legalized cannabis—allowing both medical and recreational usage—and over 20 which have legalized cannabis for medical use only.

  With the current Democratic government, federal legalization seems more likely. In fact, the MORE Act (Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment, and Expungement Act) was recently reintroduced in the House of Representatives pushing forward the progress for federal cannabis legalization in America.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 23:20

• Shellenberger: The West's Green Delusions Empowered Putin
  Shellenberger: The West’s Green Delusions Empowered Putin

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Common Sense with Bari Weiss,

  How has Vladimir Putin – a man ruling a country with an economy smaller than that of Texas, with an average life expectancy 10 years lower than that of France – managed to launch an unprovoked full-scale assault on Ukraine?

  

  There is a deep psychological, political and almost civilizational answer to that question: He wants Ukraine to be part of Russia more than the West wants it to be free. He is willing to risk tremendous loss of life and treasure to get it. There are serious limits to how much the U.S. and Europe are willing to do militarily. And Putin knows it.

  Missing from that explanation, though, is a story about material reality and basic economics—two things that Putin seems to understand far better than his counterparts in the free world and especially in Europe. 

  Putin knows that Europe produces 3.6 million barrels of oil a day but uses 15 million barrels of oil a day. Putin knows that Europe produces 230 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year but uses 560 billion cubic meters. He knows that Europe uses 950 million tons of coal a year but produces half that.

  The former KGB agent knows Russia produces 11 million barrels of oil per day but only uses 3.4 million. He knows Russia now produces over 700 billion cubic meters of gas a year but only uses around 400 billion. Russia mines 800 million tons of coal each year but uses 300.

  That’s how Russia ends up supplying about 20 percent of Europe’s oil, 40 percent of its gas, and 20 percent of its coal. 

  The math is simple. A child could do it.

  The reason Europe didn’t have a muscular deterrent threat to prevent Russian aggression—and in fact prevented the U.S. from getting allies to do more—is that it needs Putin’s oil and gas. 

  ---

  The question is why. 

  How is it possible that European countries, Germany especially, allowed themselves to become so dependent on an authoritarian country over the 30 years since the end of the Cold War? 

  Here’s how: These countries are in the grips of a delusional ideology that makes them incapable of understanding the hard realities of energy production. Green ideology insists we don’t need nuclear and that we don’t need fracking. It insists that it’s just a matter of will and money to switch to all-renewables—and fast. It insists that we need “degrowth” of the economy, and that we face looming human “extinction.” (I would know. I myself was once a true believer.)

  John Kerry, the United States’ climate envoy, perfectly captured the myopia of this view when he said, in the days before the war, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine “could have a profound negative impact on the climate, obviously. You have a war, and obviously you’re going to have massive emissions consequences to the war. But equally importantly, you’re going to lose people’s focus.”

  But it was the West’s focus on healing the planet with “soft energy” renewables, and moving away from natural gas and nuclear, that allowed Putin to gain a stranglehold over Europe’s energy supply. 

  As the West fell into a hypnotic trance about healing its relationship with nature, averting climate apocalypse and worshiping a teenager named Greta, Vladimir Putin made his moves.

  While he expanded nuclear energy at home so Russia could export its precious oil and gas to Europe, Western governments spent their time and energy obsessing over “carbon footprints,” a term created by an advertising firm working for British Petroleum. They banned plastic straws because of a 9-year-old Canadian child’s science homework. They paid for hours of “climate anxiety” therapy. 

  While Putin expanded Russia’s oil production, expanded natural gas production, and then doubled nuclear energy production to allow more exports of its precious gas, Europe, led by Germany, shut down its nuclear power plants, closed gas fields, and refused to develop more through advanced methods like fracking. 

  The numbers tell the story best. In 2016, 30 percent of the natural gas consumed by the European Union came from Russia. In 2018, that figure jumped to 40 percent. By 2020, it was nearly 44 percent, and by early 2021, it was nearly 47 percent. 

  For all his fawning over Putin, Donald Trump, back in 2018, defied diplomatic protocol to call out Germany publicly for its dependence on Moscow. “Germany, as far as I’m concerned, is captive to Russia because it’s getting so much of its energy from Russia,” Trump said. This prompted Germany’s then-chancellor, Angela Merkel, who had been widely praised in polite circles for being the last serious leader in the West, to say that her country “can make our own policies and make our own decisions.”

  The result has been the worst global energy crisis since 1973, driving prices for electricity and gasoline higher around the world. It is a crisis, fundamentally, of inadequate supply. But the scarcity is entirely manufactured.

  Europeans—led by figures like Greta Thunberg and European Green Party leaders, and supported by Americans like John Kerry—believed that a healthy relationship with the Earth requires making energy scarce. By turning to renewables, they would show the world how to live without harming the planet. But this was a pipe dream. You can’t power a whole grid with solar and wind, because the sun and the wind are inconstant, and currently existing batteries aren’t even cheap enough to store large quantities of electricity overnight, much less across whole seasons. 

  In service to green ideology, they made the perfect the enemy of the good—and of Ukraine. 

  *  *  *

  Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment,”Green Book Award winner, and the founder and president of Environmental Progress. He is author of just launched book San Fransicko (Harper Collins) and the best-selling book, Apocalypse Never (Harper Collins June 30, 2020). Subscribe To Michael’s substack here

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 23:00

• Are Russian Oligarchs Fleeing By Sea To Indian Ocean As Biden Aims To Seize Billions?
  Are Russian Oligarchs Fleeing By Sea To Indian Ocean As Biden Aims To Seize Billions?

  Russian oligarchs could be on the run as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues the seventh day of incursions in Ukraine. President Biden warned in his State of the Union address on Tuesday night that the U.S. and Europe would “seize” the assets of Russian billionaires. Thanks to the Twitterverse, finding some Russian billionaires, if by air or by sea, has become an easy task. 

  Bloomberg data shows the four biggest Russian-owned luxury yachts are in the Maldives. The largest is Ocean Victory, a 140-meter superyacht owned by Viktor Filippovich Rashnikov, a Russian billionaire who made most of his wealth in the iron and steel industry. Aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska is sailing his 72-meter yacht, called Clio, in the same area. 

  

  A 142-meter superyacht called Nord, owned by Alexei Mordashov, another steel billionaire, is currently transiting Seychelles. Russian banker, Andrey Kostin’s 66-meter Sea Rhapsody, is sailing between Somalia and Maldives. 

  An estimated 7% to 10% of the global superyacht fleet is owned by Russians, according to industry watcher Superyacht Group. Overall yacht counts have dipped to 10 from 19 this time last year in the Maldives, while they’ve climbed from five to 12 in the Seychelles, a former British colony known for its palm- fringed islands and sandy beaches. – Bloomberg

  By air, tracking Russian billionaires has never been easier. Jack Sweeney, 19, created a Twitter account called “Russian Oligarch Jets” that follows the flight movements of some of Russia’s wealthiest businessmen. The Twitter bot updates followers when and where the private jets take off and land. 

  The movement of Russian oligarchs worldwide after the invasion comes as western sanctions are complicating things for Russia and the elite class. The Biden administration has made it very clear that they will “seize their yachts, their luxury apartments, their private jets,” which is probably why some are fleeing to the Indian Ocean. 

  “Tonight, I say to the Russian oligarchs and the corrupt leaders who built billions off this violent regime — no more,” Biden said last night. “We’re coming for your ill-begotten gains.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 22:40

• Arizona House, Senate Approve Measure Boosting Voter ID Requirements On November Ballots
  Arizona House, Senate Approve Measure Boosting Voter ID Requirements On November Ballots

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Republican-controlled Arizona House and GOP-led state Senate voted Monday to approve a measure on the November election ballot that would drastically increase the identification requirements needed for Arizonans who want to vote both in-person and by mail.

  

  Gina Swoboda, third vice chairman of the Republican Party of Arizona, announced the measure had been approved in a video posted to Twitter on Monday.

  “We are so proud to announce that the voter ID act has passed out of the house, it will be on the ballot in November,” Swoboda said. “Thank you to everyone for making this happen. This is going to be a great election cycle, the people will be heard.”

  The SCR1012 bill (pdf) would require early voters to provide their date of birth and number along with their signature on their return ballots.

  Currently, voters in Arizona just sign their names, which county officials then compare to signatures they have on file with verified voter registration documents.

  The measure was approved after Republicans raised concerns that the state’s voter ID laws allow for fraud or illegal votes to take place, particularly in light of allegations of voter fraud in Arizona during the 2020 presidential election.

  An independent Senate-sponsored forensic audit by Florida-based company Cyber Ninjas found numerous ballot discrepancies and potential issues involving a combined total of 53,305 ballots.

  However, Democrats argue that the bill, along with a string of other election integrity bills being pushed through the Senate are aimed at voter suppression.

  The bill would also limit the type of identification that is acceptable for in-person voters, removing their ability to provide two different forms of identification without a photograph in order to receive a ballot at a polling place, such as a water bill or tax bill.

  The measure applies the voter identification requirements to elections beginning no later than the 2024 primary election.

  

  Marcelino Quiñonez, a Democrat who serves in the Arizona House of Representatives from the 27th district, said he refused to vote yes on SCR1012 and a similar bill, HCR2025, because he trusts “Arizona voters and the integrity of our elections.”

  HCR2025 would require Arizonans to provide ID, as well as the last four digits of their Social Security number, in order to vote early.

  “Democracy only works when you respect the outcome: win or lose, not when you change the laws along party lines. I voted NO on SCR1012/HCR2025 because voter ID laws in Arizona already exist, and I trust our process,” Quiñonez said on Twitter.

  Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Mitzi Epstein of Tempe said she is concerned that the similar HCR2025 measure could lead to hundreds of valid mail ballot requests being rejected.

  “Voter ID is good. Arizona has voter ID requirements. But this HCR has too many flaws and will have too many unintended consequences. Every eligible voter’s ballot should be counted. We should not create barriers to voting,” Epstein said on Twitter.

  However, Republican Rep. Walt Blackman of Snowflake praised the measure for strengthening election integrity.

  “I don’t see what’s wrong with this. I really don’t,” said Blackman. “Because all it’s doing is protecting our election and the process.”

  But Arizona state Rep. John Kavanagh, a Republican, said the measures are the best way to ensure every vote is counted legally.

  “Now you don’t have to mail in your driver’s license if it’s an early ballot,” Kavanagh told Fox 10. “You would simply have to put in your driver’s license number, which you have and you can copy, and the last four digits of your Social Security number. Those two pieces of information would be hidden, so nobody could see it.”

  “It’s an easy way and a secure way to ensure that somebody who steals your ballot from the mailbox, or a family member who wants to vote on your behalf, unbeknownst to you, can’t find a piece of paper with your signature on it, trace it, and vote on your behalf,” said Kavanagh.

  Meanwhile, the Arizona Republican Party on Friday filed a lawsuit asking the state Supreme Court to kill the vote-by-mail system used by 90 percent of registered voters, arguing that it is unconstitutional.

  The lawsuit asks justices to get rid of the “no-excuse absentee balloting system” adopted by the state in 1991.

  The Associated Press contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 22:20

• Two Widely Disparate Battlefield Narratives Emerge In Ukraine's South, Where Odessa Is "Bracing"
  Two Widely Disparate Battlefield Narratives Emerge In Ukraine’s South, Where Odessa Is “Bracing”

  Since Monday a consensus narrative on Russia’s offensive in Ukraine seems to have emerged – that Putin’s war has stalled, commanders are frustrated at the slow grind of advance, and that Ukraine’s military has slowed Russia’s pace a lot quicker than expected. 

  Much of this might be true, but only a week since last Thursday’s rapid invasion from Ukraine’s north, east and south – and with the ‘fog of war’ making it hard for external observers or media correspondents to verify much of the information coming out literally minute by minute, all early narratives should be treated with healthy skepticism warranted in war-time. Add to this the obvious truth that in war, all sides are flooding the information space with propaganda.

  

  A battlefield situation report issued by Bloomberg suggests that precisely the above elements are at play, heavily affecting Western mainstream narratives of what’s at best murky and still in development. Starting on Wednesday, it became clear that the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson was under direct threat. Initial reports in Reuters, Bloomberg and others focused on video evidence suggesting that a major Russian assault had been repulsed: 

  A video posted by an adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister on social media on Wednesday showed a person in civilian clothes approaching a tank and then lifting Ukrainian flags from it and waving them in the air shouting “Glory to Ukraine!”.

  The advisor, Anton Gerashchenko, said the video showed civilians in the southern city of Kherson taking away flags from Russian invaders set up in the heart of the city. Moscow said on Wednesday it had seized Kherson, the biggest win yet in its week-long invasion if its neighbor.

  Reuters noted that it wasn’t able to independently verify the video. But by day’s end Bloomberg began to come close to admitting the narrative was not quite what many major outlets were saying, further with an admission that Russia’s battlefield onslaught is progressing better than is being widely reported:

  Russia’s claim to have captured the port city of Kherson in southern Ukraine makes increasingly clear that its invasion, while slowed in the north, is gaining traction in the country’s open and hard-to-defend coastal plains.

  Along with Russia’s shift to more aggressive artillery and aerial attacks on urban centers, it is leading to a tempering of optimism over Ukraine’s ability to sustain its so far effective organized resistance against a vastly superior force. 

  And now Ukraine’s strategic Black Sea port city of Odessa is said to be “bracing” amid the Russian advance in the south, which appears gaining in momentum.

  

  Into the late night hours, Ukraine’s government was still denying that Kherson had fallen: 

  “According to the info from our brigade the battles are going on now,” a spokesperson for the ministry said. “The city is not captured totally, some parts are under our control.”

  Simultaneously, Russian state media is within the last hours reporting that its forces have taken “full control” of the city – which would make it the most important large city to have fallen thus far. But just after 4am Kiev time, the AFP reported that Ukrainian government officials are now conceding that Kherson has fallen under Russian control.

  Further, in its prior report, Bloomberg cited a military analyst to add the following key observation:

  “We are now in for the long haul and Russia is reorganizing itself to ensure that it wins this war,” according to Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow for the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, who spoke on a webinar. “So the implications of the Russian way of war is that we need to prepare now for humanitarian catastrophe.”

  For another example of a central fact that is currently in hot dispute – Ukraine said Wednesday that Russia has lost a whopping 5,000 troops after the first week of fighting.

  Note the gap between reported US government estimates of Russian losses (1,500 to 2,000 Russian KIA) and the numbers Ukraine is claiming (5,000 Russian KIA). https://t.co/PvTQfd4oO7

  — Wesley Morgan (@wesleysmorgan) March 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This even contradicts the Pentagon’s own estimate which has been given at between 1,500 and 2,000.  As for Russia’s Defense Ministry itself (MoD), it said Wednesday that it lost 498 troops – and additionally 1,597 wounded. 

  Around 6000 Russians killed in Ukraine so far. “two Western officials tell @NBCNews that about 5,800 Russians have been killed, a number in line with Ukraine’s estimates.” @JoshNBCNews

  — Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) March 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Between the Ukrainian and Russian government conflicting claims lies a gap of 4,500 KIA – which again underscores that in the fog and propaganda of war, truth is the first casualty – and it’ll take time before some of these contested facts are settled. 

  As one online commenter underscored… “Repeating again: absolutely no claims of soldiers killed on either side can be believed at this stage. Claims of huge enemy losses and minimal losses of one’s own forces are a standard part of the propaganda of war. Likewise with civilian deaths.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 22:00

• China, Russia Pose Unprecedented Strategic Threat To US: Former Trump Adviser
  China, Russia Pose Unprecedented Strategic Threat To US: Former Trump Adviser

  Authored by David Zhang and Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The United States is facing the greatest strategic threat in history with the new partnership between Russia and the Chinese regime, warned KT McFarland, former deputy national security adviser under the Trump administration.

  “The strategic threat is from China,” McFarland said.

  “The greatest strategic threat is China, Russia together; that Chinese technology, Chinese money, Chinese ruthlessness—you know, wolf-warrior diplomacy—married up with Russian natural resources and Russian military capability, that’s a really formidable adversary for the United States.”

  

  McFarland made the remarks in an interview with EpochTV’s “China Insider” program at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando on Feb. 26.

  Russia and China now boast a “no limits” partnership after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Feb. 4. The unprecedented partnership was declared in a 5,000-word joint statement, and the two bordering nations also said that there would be “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”

  Also in that statement, China sided with Russia to denounce enlargement of NATO, while Russia took up China’s position on Taiwan, calling the self-governing island “an inalienable part of China.”

  Also on Feb. 4, Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom inked a 30-year deal with state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The deal would see Russia sending China natural gas via a new pipeline linking the Russian far east with northeastern China.

  The lengthy statement, coupled with China’s recent decision to abstain from voting on a U.N. Security Council Resolution demanding that Moscow stop its attack on Ukraine, showed that Putin and Xi “are in cahoots,” according to McFarland.

  Once Xi decided to make a move against Taiwan, she said that it was absolutely certain that Putin would reciprocate by repeating China’s political stance on the self-ruled island.

  “I think that may be the mind game they’re playing,” she added.

  

  The Chinese regime has repeatedly refused to denounce Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine and has also objected to calling Russia’s attack an invasion.

  On Feb. 28, China sided with Russia again, when both nations voted against a decision by the U.N. Human Rights Council to hold an urgent debate on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  In October last year, Xi vowed that “reunification” of Taiwan with China would “definitely be realized.”

  Taiwan, a de facto independent entity, has announced it will impose sanctions on Russia. On March 1, Taiwanese Premier Su Tseng-chang said Taiwan will join moves by the United States and others to block certain Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system.

  “If China controls Taiwan, not only does it give China a strategic military position on the South China Sea, and all the trade that goes through the most important world maritime trade route in the South China Sea, it also puts China in position to control Taiwan’s microprocessing industry,” McFarland said.

  Taiwan’s microprocessing industry produces some of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, which are tiny chips that power everything from smartphones, computers, fighter jets, to missile systems. The island is home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker TSMC.

  In other words, McFarland said the United States would face a supply chain crisis if China were to get hold of Taiwan’s manufacturing plants producing these chips.

  The communist regime’s ambition is not limited to taking over Taiwan.

  “China doesn’t want to just be the most important country in the world and the global world order of the post-war period,” she said. “It wants to smash that international order, and recreate an order where China, like the good old days of thousands of years ago, sat in Beijing and all the vassal nations came and offered tribute while they kowtow to the emperor.”

  “The Chinese plan is to pick us all off one at a time—pick off Taiwan, and maybe pick off Vietnam, and then work his way around, pick off Australia,” she added.

  As such, the Chinese regime’s current partnership with Russia will be short-lived, McFarland added.

  “At the end of the day, the Chinese are going to turn on the Russians, too, once they get what they want out of the Russians,” she concluded.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 21:40

• Citi Stopped Out Of Oil Short At Double Digit Loss As TD Sees Oil Spiking To $145
  Citi Stopped Out Of Oil Short At Double Digit Loss As TD Sees Oil Spiking To $145

  While Wall Street was getting increasingly bulled up on oil prices, one bank was turning ever more bearish, and exactly one month ago when Brent traded at $82, Citigroup’s commodity head told Bloomberg he was advising clients to go short December Brent futures, predicting U.S. production would be “on the low side” at the end of the year while saying he doesn’t expect an LNG crunch in Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.

  Boy was he wrong… but at least the pain didn’t last long and earlier today Citi announced that it was closing its oil short at a substantial, 11.5% loss:

  We hit the $92/bbl stop loss on our short December 2022 (COZ2) ICE Brent futures trade established on Feb 3 for a loss of 11.5%. While our market outlook remains out-of-consensus and we continue to project significant downside for crude oil prices in a 6-9m context, the timing of this was negatively impacted from the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict, widening supply risk premiums, and upward price momentum for the crude oil futures strip. With the potential for spot oil prices to clear $125/bbl in the short-term, we step aside. Over the next month, there will probably be a better opportunity to either tactically or thematically short the energy market again.

  Meanwhile, in a far more realistic assessment, today TD Securities head of commodity strategy Bart Malek writes that any additional sanctions or unanticipated supply interruption – which are certainly coming now that buyers have balked at buying more oil from Russia  – could “easily see prices surge still higher in the near-term, as this would augment the already significant concern of a large deficit, and there are few alternatives.” Under these conditions, TD writes that it would not be surprising to see key benchmark crudes jump to around $145/b, which was last seen back in the summer of 2008.

  While sanctions thus far are meant to leave energy trade largely untouched, the cutting off of some Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system has disrupted commodity trading activity. These shortfalls would be extremely hard to offset with product sourced elsewhere. For that reason, another $25/b move higher could easily happen if either sanctions or some sort of Russia-Ukraine war related event reduces shipments.

  Perhaps having heard what’s coming, Brent spiked as high as $118 on Wednesday evening, up $10 since the start of Biden’s SOTU address just 24 hours ago.

  

  The good news is that if oil indeed explodes to around $150 – a level last reached just days before Lehman filed for bankruptcy – it won’t stay there too long for the same reason it didn’t stay there long in the summer of 2008, a dynamic we described back in January in “Shades Of 2008 As Oil Decouples From Everything.” Here is Malek again:

  Longer-term however, price at the current $110/b or higher may not be sustainable as there are some avenues that could reduce the risk of shortages, and reduce the impact of the sanctions, moderating scarcity…. At the same time, there will no doubt be demand destruction due to the sky-high prices too.

  Translation: the lack of enough oil to keep the market imbalance will lead to demand destruction, lead the forced shuttering of economic output which eventually translates into a recession. And just to make sure of that, the Fed – which has zero control over the supply of global oil – is hiking to make sure that demand – along with the rest of the economy – is truly destroyed. Which brings us to another note from TD, the bank’s Global Markets recap published earlier today, in which it writes that “Perhaps the only certainty at the moment is that everyone’s forecasts are wrong. It is reasonable to ask whether the ECB and/or the Fed will be easing again this year, even if their next steps are toward tightening.“

  Yes it is: the Fed will be easing as soon as this fall when the stagflationary recession arrives, something BofA’s Michael Hartnett has spent the past few months correctly predicting.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 21:26

• Cartel Killing Field With Bone Fragments And Incinerated Human Remains Found Near US Border
  Cartel Killing Field With Bone Fragments And Incinerated Human Remains Found Near US Border

  Another cartel “extermination site” has been revealed near the southern border in Mexico after incinerated human remains and bone fragments were found, according to AP News.

  Mexican investigators found a “ruined house” on the outskirts of Nuevo Laredo, a border city in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas that resides on the banks of the Rio Grande, across from Loredo, Texas, littered with burnt human remains two feet deep in one area of the house and bone fragments spread across 75,000 square feet of desert land. 

  

  AP was given exclusive access to the site where forensic technicians have been working for six months in an attempt to identify bone fragments. AP said investigators “still don’t dare offer an estimate” of how many people were killed at this extermination site. 

  Another cartel extermination site was revealed in the same state in a town called Jimenez, about four hours south from Brownsville, Texas. Breitbart Texas’ Cartel Chronicles called the area, used by cartel members, a “killing field.” 

  The north-eastern state of Tamaulipas is known for violent killings and disappearances, linked mainly to powerful drug cartels fighting for territorial expansion. 

  As many as 100,000 are missing in Mexico, and 52,000 unidentified people lay in morgues and cemeteries (excluding extermination sites). 

  Very little progress has been made to quell the violence in the country as cartels duke it out.

  Meanwhile, President Biden and the Democrats failed the American people in securing the border as cartel violence and large amounts of illegal immigrants have spilled over into the US. Chaos on the border is so extreme that Customs and Border Protection advise Texan agents to wear full kevlar (commonly known as body armor) and be equipped with long-arm guns, such as lightweight semi-automatic rifles to combat cartels. 

  It remains to be seen what the Biden administration’s plan is to restore law and order on the southern border. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 21:20

• What If San Francisco Does Not Recover?
  What If San Francisco Does Not Recover?

  Authored by Rich Cibotti via The Epoch Times,

  San Francisco looks worse now than I’ve ever seen it. Like any major city, San Francisco had bad areas before 2020 – those rough areas you knew to avoid – but you could go anywhere else, basically unmolested. Today is something entirely different.

  

  The streets are dirty. Homeless encampments, trash, and excrement can be found all over. Car break-ins are so frequent that it has basically become a non-government-imposed tax for people who come here. Of course, some areas are much worse than others, but almost all areas of the city suffer from this decay, and it is appalling.

  Every year, the city seems to find new ways to dig deeper and deeper toward ruin. But what happens to San Francisco if it really does not recover? What if the financial woes, homeless encampments, rising crime, and dwindling police force are the new normal for this once great city?

  Whether or not politicians want to admit it, San Francisco is in a very precarious situation. Big Tech is gone, and it’s not coming back. Of course, some companies will keep a building here or there, but tech has realized they can work anywhere. Why would anyone want to put up with onerous San Francisco regulations and taxes? Once you pay this high cost of entry, you still must deal with squalid conditions just to get to work. Instead, why not stay in your pajamas with a nice shirt or top on and fire up the Wi-Fi at home?

  The pandemic caused many offices to transition into working from home or some form of hybrid model. Now that many companies and their workers realize working from home can be effective, why wouldn’t these companies keep it permanently? Why continue to pay a premium for San Francisco office space?

  If you go downtown during the day, you can see the difference. The office buildings are empty. Vehicle and pedestrian traffic are not half of what they used to be. But what other effect does that have on the city?

  Well, there are a lot of small businesses in the ground floors of those large buildings. These businesses survive by servicing all the workers commuting into those buildings. As they start to realize the workers aren’t coming back, they are forced to accept the new reality and close. Those businesses closing will be the start of the economic death spiral.

  Closed businesses put up boards to secure the storefronts. The closed-up shops lead to more homeless encampments taking over the area. Urban blight and homeless encampments don’t exactly inspire people to risk their savings, open a business, and try to clean up the area. This only exacerbates the problem and makes it harder and harder to get out of the abyss. The encampments will spread and cover the entire area like a virus.

  

  Tourism Is the City’s Lifeblood

  In addition to those issues, the pandemic wrecked tourism. San Francisco’s local economy survives on tourism. In 2019, tourists spent an estimated $10.3 billion in the city. But today, some hotels are still closed or have been converted into homeless housing. The hotels that have reopened are not near their full occupancy. Add that to the constant national stories of San Francisco’s urban decay, and why would anybody want to travel here?

  The tourists who are brave enough to come, get to experience all of the things that are not printed on postcards. Things like open drug dealing on the street, open drug use, homeless encampments, filthy streets covered in human feces, and the high cost of just about everything.

  

  Even if tourists get through all that, they may get to become one of the many victims of our famous auto burglaries, in which case they get to replace a rental car window and all of their luggage. Not exactly what someone would want to pay a premium to experience on a vacation.

  Who Will Pay the City’s Bills?

  San Francisco had tech and tourism. It does not have some other large industry that pays for city services. Also, San Francisco’s bloated budget is over $13 billion a year for a city of fewer than 900,000 people. What happens when the money dries up?

  It already happened last year, until the federal government bailed out the city. As reported in the San Francisco Chronicle in March 2021, the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill paid off San Francisco’s deficit, allowing the city to avoid “painful cuts” to services.

  The article states that the bill “will erase the majority of San Francisco’s projected $650 million budget deficit over the next two years.”

  So instead of ushering in any sort of fiscal responsibility, the balance sheet goes to back to zero and everything is business as usual.

  “We still have a problem,” Jeff Cretan, the mayor’s spokesman, said in the article. “We just don’t have a problem right now.”

  Jeff Cretan is right. What happens when Uncle Joe and company are not there to pay our bills? Running the city like a first-year college student who maxed out their first credit card is not sustainable. Mom and Dad won’t always be there to pay off the bill. Eventually Peter Pan has to grow up.

  Hopefully the city finds a golden goose to lay golden eggs, because without that, there will need to be severe cuts in services the city prides itself on. Add that to the police staffing crisis, and a “city in decline” may be the softest way to state it.

  San Francisco is in dire straits. Whether the powers that be want to admit it or not, her best days may be behind her. People have asked me, “Do you really think it could all fall apart?”

  I’ll leave you with the same parting thought I give them:

  • When looking at San Francisco right now, does our situation look more like Detroit when the auto industry left?

  • Or is it more like when New York City cleaned it up in the late 90s?

  

  Hey, but at least we have good weather.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 21:00

• China Considers Possibility Of Abandoning "Zero COVID" Policy
  China Considers Possibility Of Abandoning “Zero COVID” Policy

  After more than two years of imposing some of the world’s most restrictive lockdowns on its population, Beijing is finally preparing for a world without its strenuous “ZERO Covid” measures.

  WSJ reports that Chinese officials are looking into the use of travel bubbles modeled on what was used during the Winter Olympics.

  

  Collecting data on new antiviral drugs and scouting sites abroad for future production of homegrown Chinese mRNA vaccines, according to people familiar with the matter. However, on the other hand, images of patients in Hong Kong lying on open-air gurneys has intensified the sense of public panic.  They now see the former British colony as something of a cross between a science experiment and an actualy community.

  Mainland experts now see the former British colony as a “stress test scenario,” as well as a source of data on the effectiveness of various treatments and insight into fighting severe infection surges without resorting to hard lockdowns, according to a person familiar with the discussions.;

  While COVID likely won’t ease before next spring,  the two sources from within China’s government told WSJ that officials in departments covering transportation, customs and border control have been tasked since January with exploring adjustments to COVID control policies that can eventually be presented to China’s top leadership.

  Additionally, officials China’s departments covering transportation, customs and border control have been tasked since January with exploring potential changes to China’s COVID control policies. The hope is that these potential changes –  or “adjustments” – will eventually be presented to China’s top leadership, according to a person with knowledge.

  In another line of questioning, WSJ added that the approach and timeline for a relaxation of COVID controls isn’t fixed and could change depending damn whether a levee of corporate bankruptcies breaks.

  Pfizer’s unleashing of its drug Paxlovid will play a major role in protecting the help of billions as members of the public and lawmakers see the drug as critical in keeping Americans alive in theater.

  And on the positive side, the development and introduction of China’s homegrown mRNA vaccines could also give China another tool that would allow for a relaxation of controls.

  However, one critical pitfall for China is the public’s attitude as cases surge in Hong Kong.

  But word out of Hong Kong shows that residents are preferring to flee instead of risking being locked up in quarantine.

  Presently, the Chinese protocol remains  sending every positive case regardless of severity, to a medical facility for treatment, which Powell warned would inundate hospitals in the event of a larger outbreak.

  “Hospitals can treat patients,” said Liu. “But they cannot fight panic.”

  But by far the biggest obstacle for China as it seeks to raise its vaccination rate (in order to push for a lower death rate).

  News of a potential pullback out of Chinese yuan, trading both onshore and offshore, sliding to session lows. Meanwhile, shares of casino operators with exposure to Macau have climbed on the news. They include shares of Las Vegas Sands, Melco and Wynn Resorts.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 20:40

• Former Top US Defense Officials Arrive in Taiwan Amid Russia-Ukraine War
  Former Top US Defense Officials Arrive in Taiwan Amid Russia-Ukraine War

  Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  As the Ukraine crisis escalates, Taipei welcomed a high-level visit by former top U.S. defense officials, which indicates “rock-solid relations” between Taiwan and the United States, a Taiwanese official said.

  

  The unannounced delegation arrived in Taipei at 4:13 p.m. local time on March 1, according to Taiwan’s state-run Central News Agency (CNA). The group, led by retired Admiral Mike Mullen, former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will meet President Tsai Ing-wen in the following morning, and attend a banquet later that day.

  The two-day visit underscores bipartisan support from Washington and “will even more clearly highlight the rock-solid relations between Taiwan and the United States, especially at a time of the Ukraine crisis,” Taiwan’s presidential office spokesperson Chang Tun-han said a day earlier, CNA reported.

  Mullen, a former top U.S. military officer, will be accompanied by Meghan O’Sullivan, a former deputy national security adviser, Michèle Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense, and Mike Green and Evan Medeiros, both of whom were senior directors for the Asia affairs office of the National Security Council.

  A senior official of the Biden administration told Reuters that the selection of the five flagged “an important signal about the bipartisan U.S. commitment to Taiwan and its democracy.”

  The two sides are also looking to exchange views on bilateral cooperation, Taiwan-U.S. relations, and regional peace and stability, said Chang.

  

  Taiwan has stepped up its alert levels since Russia attacked Ukraine, wary of China taking advantage of its distracted Western allies and moving against the self-ruled island. Nine Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in the hours following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Taiwan quickly mobilized its military aircraft in response, according to its defense ministry.

  Concerns mounted as to whether Taiwan will meet the same fate as Ukraine, as Russia’s aggression is compared to that of China. Beijing has long been eyeing and harassing the democratic country, which the communist regime claims as its own.

  Yet Taiwan’s government has repeatedly said the island’s situation and Ukraine’s are fundamentally different due to the island’s geographical and geopolitical advantages, and its key role in the global high-tech supply chain.

  “In all areas, the two cannot be compared,” said cabinet spokesperson Lo Ping-cheng, in a Feb. 28 statement.

  It has been less than a year since the previous delegation, led by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), visited Taiwan last April.

  Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said last week that former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his wife will visit Taiwan from March 2 to 5 and meet with Tsai.

  Reuters contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 20:20

• Here's How Much Bitcoin Russia Has Bought In The Past Week
  Here’s How Much Bitcoin Russia Has Bought In The Past Week

  In the words of the Washington Post, the battle between Russia and Ukraine is “the world’s first crypto war” as both sides discover the advantages of a borderless, permissionless currency.

  Whether it is for enabling donations to Ukrainians (for arms or humanitarian needs) or for Russians evading Putin’s FX transfer bans or escaping western sanctions, both sides appear to see the benefits.

  Crypto interest in Russia on the rise; and Google searches do show an uptick in interest in Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, from Russia and, to a lesser extent, from Ukraine.

  

  At this stage 11% of Russians already own crypto; so there is some familiarly with it.

  The recent decoupling of bitcoin from tech stocks shows the regime change in demand from some external factor…

  

  And this could get significantly higher as the potential for capital flight from Russia is large.

  In a recent note. Citi details that, net capital outflows from Russia during the 2014 crisis were 151bn (a surge of 90bn from the previous year). In the 2008 crisis, it was 133bn. Of course, that is not the same as capital flight, as it includes debt payments etc. The worst errors and omissions (capital flight proxy) in more recent memory was an outflow of around 5bn USD.

  Though this time around the capital flight could be significantly more than that as the crisis is more severe.

  Of course, it is an open question just how much crypto would be used for this purpose.

  Just for reference, daily bitcoin volume in spot is around 4.8bn according to bitcointradevolume.com, and including derivatives it is around 20-40bn, i.e. it will take meaningful capital flight to move the needle.

  But it is not just Russia, as Kaiko reports that bitcoin traded at a 6% premium on Binance’s Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) market as demand for cryptocurrencies soared immediately following Russia’s invasion.

  

  Demand surged on Binance as local Ukrainian currency markets faced significant disruptions, with the Ukrainian central bank temporarily halting foreign currency withdrawals and the Ukrainian hryvnia falling to all time lows versus the U.S. Dollar.

  Both ruble and hryvnia trade volumes surged to their highest levels in months almost immediately after the Russian invasion, highlighting the complexities of the cryptocurrency industry’s role in the conflict.

  

  

  While the potential for capital flight is high, as Citi details above, Russian volumes (although impressive-looking on the chart) have been relatively small in absolute terms so far (around 210 bitcoin per day on average), suggesting that the price action is more due to investors positioning for an expected uptick in demand from Russia, rather than Russian demand itself.

  

  This will be important to monitor, as Bitcoin could recouple with technology stocks if the expected Russian buying should not materialize.

  Of course, the very fact that volumes of crypto activity have surged from both Russia and Ukraine since the invasion has prompted the establishment to cry ‘no fair!’ with ECB President Christine Lagarde urging regulation to prevent Russia escaping their sanction threats:

  “It’s so critically important that MiCA is pushed through as quickly as possible so we have a regulatory framework within which crypto assets can actually be caught.”

  And Jay Powell today, with a somewhat mixed message, by discussing the advantages of ‘digital currencies’ – clearly angling towards the use of CBDCs – but hedging his view by placating the regulatory-thirsting politicians by adding that “…to the extent that cryptocurrencies are a means to evade law enforcement and national security that’s not something we should tolerate.”

  Finally, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, while describing the DoJ’s new “Kleptocapture” tak force, said they will freeze the assets of ‘Putin’s cronies” with a “focus on cryptocurrencies,” and Treasury Secretary Yellen warned later that “crypto is a channel to watch for sanctions leakage.”

  For now, judging from the Citi data, crypto is not being used for sanctions avoidance on anything but a small scale.

  All of which is somewhat humorous since, according to the data above, Russians are ‘laundering’ around $10 million in bitcoin a day, while Credit Suisse helped facilitate $100 billion in laundering over the years and it seemed nobody cared…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 20:00

• Los Angeles Unified Must Negotiate With Teachers' Union Before Dropping Mask Mandate
  Los Angeles Unified Must Negotiate With Teachers’ Union Before Dropping Mask Mandate

  Authored by Micaela Ricaforte via The Epoch Times,

  Though California and Los Angeles County announced it would drop its indoor mask mandate for schools by March 12, the LA Unified School District (LAUSD) must negotiate with its local teachers union before it can lift its mandate.

  

  In recent months, schools across California have faced mounting pressure to lift indoor mask mandates from students and parents; however, the state’s largest school district cannot change its indoor mask requirement without first negotiating an existing contract with United Teachers of LA (UTLA).

  The agreement includes a requirement for “enforced masking” for the entire 2021–22 school year.

  According to the agreement, either party can request to meet and bargain over potential changes to the mask requirement after Dec. 1.

  An LAUSD spokesperson told The Epoch Times Feb. 28 the district “acknowledges” the state and county’s mask updates and will “remain engaged with our labor partners” as they consider an updated masking policy.

  LAUSD Board of Education President Kelly Gonez said Feb. 28 any changes to the masking policy must be discussed with UTLA.

  “Any changes in our policy on masking would be taken only in consultation with our labor partners,” Gonez told the LA Daily News.

  “We remain committed to ensuring a safe learning and working environment.”

  However, a UTLA spokesperson told The Epoch Times that the LAUSD has not reached out about mask negotiations as of March 1.

  

  Students walk to their classrooms at a public middle school in Los Angeles, Calif., on Sept. 10, 2021. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

  In addition to negotiating with labor unions, Gonez said the district must review local COVID-19 case rates.

  “Los Angeles has fortunately seen a decline in COVID rates after the record-setting Omicron rates, but there is still significant spread in our communities. We need to take this local context into account,” Gonez said.

  The district had a 2.1 percent positive case rate among students, and a 1.7 percent case rate for teachers and staff, according to an LAUSD report on Feb. 11.

  UTLA President Cecily Myart-Cruz said in a Feb. 28 statement that “While declining COVID rates are promising, educators agree with Governor Newsom’s statement strongly recommending that masking stay in place in schools.”

  “LAUSD schools have been the safest and most well equipped in the country because educators and families united to demand critical health and safety protocols,” Myart-Cruz said.

  “These protocols, like indoor masking, have protected tens of thousands of educators and more than half a million students, along with their families. It is premature to discuss removing these health and safety measures while there are still many unvaccinated youth in our early education programs and schools.”

  Some LAUSD parents expressed frustration that their children must remain masked despite the state and county’s updated policies.

  LAUSD parent Sarah Peterson told The Epoch Times she thought the situation revealed elected officials’ true priorities.

  “COVID laid clear the real priorities and agenda of our elected public officials and unelected bureaucrats—lobbying money and personal power above children.” Peterson said.

  “Parents will never forget—never.”

  

  A child wears a face mask as they attend an online class at a learning hub inside the Crenshaw Family YMCA during the Covid-19 pandemic in Los Angeles, Calif., on Feb. 17, 2021. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

  Kristina Irwin, who has three children in the LAUSD, told the Epoch Times she thought the LAUSD should follow the recommendations of the state and the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention (CDC).

  “[District officials] should side with the CDC and all the other school districts if this is truly about following the science,” Irwin said. “If you rely on the science set … on implementing the mask mandates, then you need to do the same to lift them, otherwise this is just about making up the rules as you go.”

  Other parents argued masks inhibit student learning and social engagement.

  “It is the natural state of children to show their faces and see faces—smiling and giggling with friends is how many children communicate and build bonds,” said another mom of two LAUSD students, who declined to provide her name.

  “Masks have hampered socializations and learning for far longer than justifiable.”

  The mom went on to say that “vaccinations are highly effective at protecting adults as well as children that are at risk of severe symptoms, and kids are safer than congresspeople that will convene tonight unmasked.”

  The LAUSD will enforce a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for students over 12 beginning in the fall.

  A spokesperson for UTLA did not respond to a request for comment by press deadline.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 19:40

• Rich Russians Scramble To Buy Luxury Goods As Ruble Plunges; Burberry 'Pauses' All Shipments
  Rich Russians Scramble To Buy Luxury Goods As Ruble Plunges; Burberry ‘Pauses’ All Shipments

  Wealthy Russians are scrambling to buy luxury goods  to preserve their wealth, as worldwide sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine has sent the Ruble plunging in recent days.

  

  According to Bulgari SpA CEO Jean-Christophe Babin, sales in Russian stores has risen in the last few days after international financial sanctions sharply restricted the movement of cash, Bloomberg reports.

  “In the short term it has probably boosted the business,” he said in an interview with the outlet, describing the company’s jewelry as a “safe investment.”

  “How long it will last it is difficult to say, because indeed with the SWIFT measures, fully implemented, it might make it difficult if not impossible to export to Russia,” Babin added, referring to Russia’s ouster from the SWIFT financial-messaging system.

  

  And while many consumer brands ranging from Apple to Nike, and several energy giants such as BP, Shell and Exxon have announced a pullout from Russia, luxury brands have thus far attempted to continue operating in the country with the exception of Burberry – which has now ‘paused’ all shipments to Russia.

  Bulgari, owned by LVMH SE, is far from alone. Richemont’s Cartier is still selling jewelery and watches, Swatch Group’s Omega timepieces are still available, as are Rolexes. All are continuing to make sales and trying to strike an apolitical stance. -Bloomberg

  “We are there for the Russian people and not for the political world,” said Babin. “We operate in many different countries that have periods of uncertainty and tensions.”

  Burberry, on the other hand, will no longer ship to Russia ‘until further notice,’ according to Bloomberg, citing “operational challenges” amid the Ukraine situation.

  “This is a fast-moving situation and we continue to monitor developments closely,” a spokesman told the outlet, adding that the company is focused on supporting “our people and partners” in Ukraine and Russia, and has donated to the British Red Cross Ukraine appeal. “These are incredibly difficult times for many people and our thoughts are with all those impacted by the crisis.”

  Luxury watches and jewelry can hold and even appreciate in value amid economic turmoil – yet allowing wealthy Russians a financial life-raft has created a ‘potential public relations issue’ according to the report.

  “It is true that luxury brands could decide not to serve the Russian market. Rationally, this would be a cost to them, possibly outweighed by the positive communication image they get in other markets,” said Bernstein analyst Luca Solca.

  Sales in Russia and to Russians abroad account for less than 2% of overall revenue at LVMH and Swatch Group and less than 3% at Richemont, a “relatively immaterial” level, according to a report this week by Edouard Aubin and fellow analysts at Morgan Stanley.

  That’s due, in part, to Russian income and wealth disparities, with a small number of billionaire oligarchs living way beyond the means of ordinary people. The average monthly wage in Moscow is about 113,000 rubles ($1,350 at pre-invasion exchange rates), and much lower in rural regions. -Bloomberg

  Meanwhile, Europe’s financial war with wealthy Russians has escalated – as Switzerland has become the latest player to break with their historic neutrality and enforce EU sanctions in an attempt to pressure oligarchs to lean on President Vladimir Putin to end the invasion of Ukraine.

  Switzerland, home to 8.6 million people, has long been a favorite destination for wealthy Russians thanks to its discretion and ‘light-touch’ regulation, according to Bloomberg.

  The Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows Russian residents and companies held a combined $11 billion in Swiss banks – which is more than double the roughly $5 billion held in UK institutions. That figure does not include brokerage accounts, investments or assets held through offshore companies. Private bankers have estimated that rich Russians hold in excess of $100 billion across the country’s lenders. One person put the figure at $300 billion – equal to nearly 40% of the Swiss economy.

  

  Over the last two years, deposits in Swiss institutions by Russians increased significantly after falling between 2013 and 2018.

  

  Now, some of those assets will be subject to freezes if they’re linked to any of the hundreds of Russian officials and entities, including Putin, put under EU sanctions.

  According to the report, the Swiss government will implement the EU sanctions with ‘immediate effect,’ after spending the weekend taking flack from opposition politicians and editorials in leading Swiss papers, as well as from other governments, to join the sanctions.

  The EU sanctions include six of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs; Alexey Mordashov, Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aven, Alisher Usmanov, Gennady Timchenko and Alexander Ponomarenko.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 19:20

• Shipping Isn't Waiting For Sanctions. It's Already Refusing To Move Russian Cargo
  Shipping Isn’t Waiting For Sanctions. It’s Already Refusing To Move Russian Cargo

  By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

  In September 2019, the U.S. sanctioned tanker company Cosco Dalian, a division of Chinese shipping giant Cosco, for carrying Iranian crude. The sanctions only covered the 20 tankers owned by Cosco Dalian, but that didn’t matter. As a precaution, charterers shunned the entire 150-tanker fleet of the Cosco parent, causing tanker spot rates to spike.

  Shipping execs don’t just refuse vessels or cargoes based on what’s definitely sanctionable. They do so based on what they believe might possibly be sanctioned now or later. Sanctions are written in precise language, but they’re messy in practice.

  

  That precept is now on full display. Sanctions have yet to specifically target Russian energy exports or (non-dual-use, i.e., non-military) containerized goods, but that doesn’t matter. Many tanker owners and container liner operators are preemptively pulling out of Russia.

  On Tuesday, MSC, Maersk and CMA CGM — the top three liner companies in the world — temporarily suspended Russian bookings. Yang Ming, the ninth largest, suspended Russian bookings on Wednesday; ONE, the sixth largest, on Sunday; and Hapag-Lloyd, fifth largest, on Thursday. These six carriers control 62% of global capacity, according to Alphaliner data.

  The world’s largest container lines are dropping Russia “to manage sanctions risk but also perhaps manage reputational risk,” said Michelle Linderman, partner of law firm Crowell & Moring, during a panel presented by shipping association BIMCO on Tuesday. “Do they want to be seen as supporting Russia? Or are they going to say at this moment, while this is going on, we don’t want to go anywhere near there.”

  The tanker sector is seeing the same pattern of behavior among shipowners and operators. Many are refusing to load Russian oil cargoes even though sanctions don’t bar them from doing so.

  “Few owners are now willing to transport Russian oil, resulting in an undersupply of ships [at Russian export terminals],” said Clarksons Platou Securities.

  Why shipping companies ‘say no to Russia’

  “This is the most comprehensive and coordinated sanctions regime we have ever seen before, let alone one including a former G8 member … and it is rapidly evolving,” said Crowell & Moring partner Dj Wolff during the BIMCO event.

  He explained: “Not only do you have to make sure [a shipment] is legally permissible, you’ve got to make sure every other party to the transaction thinks so: your banks, insurer, shipper, receiver, charterer, owner, etc. Otherwise, you won’t get paid, you won’t have a completed shipment or you’ll lose your insurance.”

  Linderman added: “Even if you do all of those checks and you are comfortable at this precise moment in time that you can take a ship and go and load cargo or do a transaction with some Russian connection, and you get comfortable with all the parties — that’s just for now. Things are shifting so quickly. What happens if the counterparty that you just signed a charter party with or shipped cargo for gets sanctioned tomorrow, or in the next hour, or in the next 20 minutes?”

  Practically speaking, this is convincing shipping companies to “say no to Russia” because it’s not worth the risk, said Wolff.  

  “We have seen an enormous number of our clients ask: Should we pause or withdraw from Russia? They say: If you, the outside counsel, are telling me you haven’t been able to digest these 1,200 pages of regulations, then how the heck are we as a company supposed to ensure compliance with them? We should just press pause and wait for some sort of stable state to emerge.

  “Some companies have also decided, maybe for legal reasons, maybe for a practical reason, maybe for a reputational reason, to say: I am withdrawing from Russia. You’ve seen some really big energy companies under pressure to do that, and there are a whole lot of companies that we’ve seen who are making this decision off the radar.”

  How cargo refusals effect rates

  Companies pulling out of the Russia will impact all shipping segments, from containers and tankers to dry bulk and gas transport. There will be market consequences. 

  In container shipping, diversions of Russia-bound cargo and intensified inspections for dual-use cargo could exacerbate congestion and network inefficiencies in European trades.

  In tanker shipping, there has already been a large upward move in freight rates. As more shipowners refuse to load Russian crude exports, and more importers abstain from buying them, Urals crude trades at a $20 per barrel discount and tanker owners that do agree to carry cargoes can charge dramatically higher rates.

  Aframax tankers (with capacity of 750,000 barrels) have obtained rates of $130,000 per day on this route, up from $5,000 per day last week, said Clarksons.

  Evercore ISI transportation analyst Jon Chappell told American Shipper: “Russian producers are still making money because the [crude] price is so high, and shipping costs are irrelevant because there’s a massive discount on [Russian] Urals crude right now, so for whoever’s buying it, who cares what you’re paying for shipping? You could pay $200,000 per day, $300,000 per day, and it wouldn’t matter.”

  Six-figure-per-day rates are only being earned now by a small number of tankers loading in Northern Europe. Yet the upward rate momentum that began with shipowners’ reluctance to load Russian oil cargoes is spreading globally.

  Clarksons estimated on Tuesday that rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs; tankers that carry 2 million barrels) built in 2015 or later are $27,500 per day, up 591% week on week. It put rates for newer Suezmaxes (capacity: 1 million barrels) at $28,000 per day, up 285% week on week, and rates for newer Aframaxes at $41,800 per day, up 157% week on week. Product tanker rates are up double digits from last week.

  According to Chappell: “The midsized crude carriers that operate in these regions — the Baltic, Black Sea, the Med — will see an outsized impact, but it will be a rising tide, as we’ve seen with V’s [VLCC tankers]. The TD3 [the Middle East-to-Japan index that tracks VLCC rates] jumped last week despite the fact that there’s no change in anything out of the Middle East to the Far East.”

  Chappell believes broader pricing action shows that the tanker market “was a little bit tighter than people thought, in two regards. One, there’s probably not as much oversupply of tonnage as people thought, and two, the inventory situation we’ve been talking about for nine months is coming a bit more to the fore.

  “You can’t really have [inventory] days of demand cover this low and have a geopolitical conflict involving one of the world’s biggest producers of oil and think that it’s not going to have a meaningful impact on commodity prices and the freight market.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 19:00

• BitConnect Founder Indicted In Alleged $2.4B Ponzi Scheme Disappears
  BitConnect Founder Indicted In Alleged $2.4B Ponzi Scheme Disappears

  The founder of BitConnect has disappeared into thin air following his indictment over an alleged $2.4 billion Ponzi scheme.

  

  A San Diego-based federal grand jury charged Satish Kumbhani with orchestrating the alleged scheme via BitConnect’s “Lending Program,” which promised “substantial profits and guaranteed returns” to investors.

  The DOJ says Kumbhani used funds from new investors to partially reimburse old investors after abruptly shutting down the program – and that he and his co-conspirators had faked market demand for BitConnect (BCC) via market manipulation.

  In a Monday court filing, the SEC noted that the indicted founder has most likely fled to a foreign country.

  “The Commission did not know the whereabouts of Kumbhani, an Indian citizen, at the time it filed this action, and BitConnect is an unincorporated entity the Commission must serve through its manager, Kumbhani,” reads the filing by senior trial counsel Richard G. Primoff.

  “Since November, the Commission has been consulting with that country’s financial regulatory authorities in an attempt to locate Kumbhani’s address,” Primoff added. “At present, however, Kumbhani’s location remains unknown, and the Commission remains unable to state when its efforts to locate him will be successful, if at all.”

  Kumbhani is charged with wire fraud, operating an unlicensed money transmitting business and three conspiracies; wire fraud, commodity price manipulation and international money laundering, according to CoinTelegraph.

  Founded in 2016, BitConnect was one of the largest and most popular projects in the initial coin offering (ICO) space in mid-2017, managing to raise billions of dollars from investors worldwide for the promise of 10% interest via its BCC token. More benefits were available to those who “referred” other investors to the scheme.

  On Jan. 16, 2018 however, BitConnect platform administrators folded up shop amid increasing scrutiny from lawmakers and investors, causing prices to plummet below $1 from a high of almost $500.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 18:40

• The Americans Itching For War
  The Americans Itching For War

  Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

  America’s return to “normalcy.”

  The foreign policy experts promised us that President Biden would restore our standing in the world and “stand up to tyranny.” Retired Admiral William McRaven said Biden would make America lead again. They were wrong, of course. The Afghanistan withdrawal was a disaster. The reliance on intelligence and security from the Taliban got Americans killed.

  If they were right about anything, it was about the return to American “normalcy.” This was one of our biggest concerns with Biden. Normalcy in the U.S. is incompetence. It got us the war in Iraq and a ~20 year war in Afghanistan. It gave us Libya and the emergency of ISIS.

  

  This same class of experts – the ones who were wrong on Biden, wrong on Iraq and Afghanistan – are now salivating at the prospects of war with Russia. And they’re doing so by misrepresenting the purpose and risk of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the mental health of Vladimir Putin.

  Liz Cheney goes so far as to make this a moral issue, stating “Isolationism has always and will always be wrong.” If isolationism is “always” wrong, then is intervention always right? Follow her twisted worldview to its logical conclusions and you find the answer.

  Isolationism has always and will always be wrong. America cannot maintain our own security and freedom if we withdraw from the world.

  If America withdraws, the void is filled with the kind of brutality we are seeing in Ukraine today. pic.twitter.com/6RJD1oaq5f

  — Rep. Liz Cheney (@RepLizCheney) February 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There is no doubt that America would be better off not taking moral lessons from a Cheney. While she doesn’t tell us the standard of this moral judgment, but it is no doubt based on the incorrect assumption that America’s use of force to advance its own interests is morally right. To that I say: bullshit. Rightness isn’t judged by the identity of the actor.

  Our criticisms of the West must be addressed before we continue. We are principled anti-war, although we acknowledge the limited necessity of war. In short, we believe in the principles of Just War (but not the secular revisions of that theory). This means we acknowledge the necessity of wars of defense and reject wars conducted for ambiguous notions of “national interest” or “pre-emption” or conflicts to “reorder the international system.”

  This puts us in the position of condemning both Russia’s war of national interest in Ukraine and America’s war of national interest in Iraq. In contrast, while neo-conservatives like Liz Cheney condemn Russia’s war Ukraine, they agree with the principles underlying Russia’s use of force.

  Crazy Putin, Nuclear Weapons, and the Calls for Escalation.

  Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice calls Putin’s behavior “erratic,” his views “delusional.” James Clapper says Putin is “unhinged.” Clapper suggests the possibility that Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Fiona Hill, the Regime’s favorite “Russia expert,” believes “Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones.”

  There’s a couple goals in questioning Putin’s state of mind. First, it serves to defend America from criticisms that potential NATO expansion and continued American meddling in Ukraine helped spark this conflict. (“Blame the crazy man, not us.”)

  Second, it justifies the escalation of the West’s involvement in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Talks about the potential for nuclear war only make intervention more necessary (though that doesn’t guarantee Biden would take the bait). U.S. Senators are calling for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Escalation leads to dangerous questions and unknown answers, such as what happens when the U.S. and Russia are in direct conflict.   

  Missing from the media’s coverage is push-back on these statements about Putin’s state of mind or the potential use of nuclear weapons. Their skepticism isn’t missing – it’s dead. Putin the Madman is the new talking point, the elite opinion that is approved for the masses. There’s little basis for their new talking point – certainly not in Putin’s February 24, 2022 speech where he calmly outlines Russia’s grievances and concerns, and their plans for Ukraine.

  In fact, while Fiona Hill questions Putin’s mental state, she admits they assessed years ago that there was “a real, genuine risk of preemptive Russian military action” against Ukraine in response to NATO’s Open Door promise to welcome any European democracy (including Ukraine).  Such predictions don’t square with craziness.

  Hill and Clapper’s inflammatory statements about the potential for Russia to use nuclear weapons makes zero sense in context of the conflict in Ukraine and Putin’s demands. Putin is winning the war. At the time I’m writing this, Russia is surrounding major Ukrainian cities and the Russian convoy headed to Kyiv is estimated to be 40 miles long.

  

  The great length of the convoy reflects the fact that Russia owns the air. While there is some brave Ukrainian resistance, it won’t stop the encirclement of Kyiv or other major cities. The New York Times further explains:

  Analysts say they expect Russian forces to work to expand their hold on the pro-Russia, separatist enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and to capture a land bridge to Crimea in the south, while pushing troops down from the north to try to encircle the main Ukrainian Army east of the Dnieper River. They are trying to surround Mariupol and take Kharkiv.

  That encirclement would cut off the bulk of Ukraine’s forces from Kyiv and from easy resupply, the experts say, limiting the sustainability of organized resistance. Russian troops are also moving steadily toward Kyiv from three axes to try to surround it.

  Then we get to the foolishness of escalation in light of Putin’s stated goals of the invasion. Assuming the latest reports are accurate, the purpose of this war isn’t to seize and occupy the whole of Ukraine into perpetuity. Putin isn’t demanding Ukraine be brought into Russia. Instead, Putin’s demands include:

  1. The disarmament of Ukraine.

  2. The neutrality of Ukraine (no NATO membership).

  3. The formal recognition of Crimea as Russian.

  If those are the terms, then how much escalation is necessary? Or justified?

  Dare I got out on a ledge and say the U.S. does not have Ukraine’s best interests in mind. (The U.S. initially opposed the settlement talks.) More Ukrainians die as the war drags on.

  But cynics in the U.S. government must be considering that a long war also puts economic pressure on Putin. How many other peoples’ lives would the U.S. government be willing to sacrifice if Putin could be unseated? We already know that the goal of some – including Adam Schiff – is to “fight Russia over there.”

  US chauvinism & warmongering is so ingrained that @AdamSchiff can openly declare, in Jan 2020, that US uses Ukraine to “fight Russia over there,” and our elites applaud. Fast forward two years later when Russia fights back, and the same circle is outraged. pic.twitter.com/6B4QVFSZvV

  — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) February 26, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, they’re the ones doing the fighting. Proxy battles never end well for the proxy.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 18:20

• "Extremely Dangerous" –  FitBit Recalls 1.7 Million Smartwatches That Can Burn User 
  “Extremely Dangerous” –  FitBit Recalls 1.7 Million Smartwatches That Can Burn User 

  Google-owned Fitbit announced a voluntary recall of 1.7 million smartwatches that may overheat due to the lithium-ion battery inside and burn the user. 

  The recall is for the discontinued Fitbit Ionic Smartwatch (introduced in 2017 and stopped producing in 2020) that according to US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), “the lithium-ion battery in the Ionic smartwatch can overheat, posing a burn hazard.” 

  

  Fitbit sold about a million Ionic Smartwatches in the U.S. and another 693,000 internationally. The company is offering “a refund to Fitbit Ionic customers.” 

  “The health and safety of Fitbit users is our highest priority. We are taking this action out of an abundance of caution for our users,” the company said in a statement.

  CPSC said there have been “at least 115 reports in the United States (and 59 reports internationally) of the battery in the watch overheating with 78 reports of burn injuries in the United States including two reports of third-degree burns and four reports of second-degree burns (and 40 reports of burn injuries internationally).”

  A few years ago, the Daily Mail reported a man suffered “third-degree burns” on his wrist when his Fitbit watched “burned up” while he was asleep. 

  

  Someone today posted an alleged FitBit fire that engulfed part of their bedroom. 

  Just heard about the @fitbit recall. Will they take THIS back? This is what my #fitbit Blaze did to my bedroom. These things are no joke. If my bedroom door was open the whole house would have caught fire. Extremely dangerous. pic.twitter.com/c8HM31IONV

  — Julia Moroney (@juliamoroney) March 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  These smartwatches seem extremely dangerous. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 03/02/2022 – 18:00

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