Today’s News 3rd March 2025

• On The Brink Of A Multipolar World, India's Grand Strategy Is Largely Defined By China, Analysts Say
  On The Brink Of A Multipolar World, India’s Grand Strategy Is Largely Defined By China, Analysts Say

  Authored by Venus Upadhayaya via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  This article is the second in a series titled “India: The Next Five Years.” Conversations with subject experts, thought leaders, innovators, strategists, and diplomats will explore India’s foreign relations and its global outlook from 2024 to 2029.

  India, the world’s fastest-growing economy, is also growing in its understanding of itself. As it does so, its “grand strategy”—the way it views its place in the world—is largely defined by China, experts say.

  

  “China looms increasingly large in India’s strategic consciousness,” writes Dhruva Jaishankar in his recently released book, “Vishwa Shastra: India and the World.”

  “Indeed, China’s rise is likely the primary factor influencing India’s grand strategy today.”

  “Vishwa Shastra,” is a Sanskrit phrase that means “treatise on the world.” The book offers a consolidated, linear analysis of Indian foreign policy from ancient to modern times.

  Jaishankar, who serves as executive director of the Washington-based Observer Research Foundation, told The Epoch Times in an exclusive interview that there are broadly five objectives to India’s “grand strategy.”

  “Strengthening India at home, militarily and economically, is [the] number one priority. [Second is] ensuring a stable neighborhood, which has been a big challenge, but the neighborhood has always, again, been a first priority internationally,” Jaishankar said.

  Maintaining a balance of power is India’s third priority. The fourth is to address legacy issues concerning India’s partition, which led to the formation of Pakistan and created larger regional consequences. The fifth is to advocate for India’s adequate participation in global rule-making institutions, he said.

  These five objectives have largely defined India’s grand strategy since its independence in 1947. Today’s India has more opportunities and resources to achieve these objectives than it has ever had before, according to Jaishankar.

  “India is less on the defensive than in the past. It has more resources than in the past. So that’s good in many respects. It has an ability to modernize. It has an ability to settle some of the issues in its periphery. It has the ability to bypass and isolate Pakistan and things like that.”

  

  Articulating India’s Grand Strategy

  Srikanth Kondapalli, dean of the School of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), told The Epoch Times that every major power has a grand strategy that defines its trajectory, looking out 20 to 25 years. Along with its planning for economic, technological, and military development, the grand strategy details a country’s national ethos.

  An expert on China’s foreign and security policies, Kondapalli said how much of a nation’s grand strategy is disclosed depends upon the purpose ascribed to it by that nation.

  “For example, the Americans have the [Quadrennial] Defense Review and national security strategy.  … The Russians have a strategy like this. The UK has one. China also articulated it in terms of national rejuvenation by 2049, and they have several steps—from up to 2021 up to 2035,” said Kondapalli.

  India’s grand strategy has rarely been explicitly articulated, and various authors have attempted to express the country’s vision. Jaishankar’s work attempts to define India’s global impact, exactly 25 years away from the mid-century world. The mid-century is also the timeframe of China’s grand strategy of national rejuvenation, sometimes dubbed “Global China 2049” or “China 2049.”

  Kondapalli cited “India 2020,” a 1998 work by India’s former president, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y. S. Rajan. The book outlined a strategy for a developed India looking at the first two decades of the new millennium.

  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed Indian strategy as “Viksit Bharat 2047.” The phrase “Viksit Bharat,” which means “developed India,” conveys the Indian government’s vision to transform the country into a self-reliant and prosperous economy by 2047.

  Kondapalli described the areas defined under Viksit Bharat 2027 as “soft areas of the grand strategy.”

  Meanwhile, many of India’s security-related issues are kept guarded and undisclosed, he said. A number of the undisclosed areas concern China.

  

  The Biggest Obstacle—China

  Despite its possibilities, India faces many challenges to the achievement of its grand strategy. Looming large among them is China, which analysts define as a major challenge to India’s rise on the world stage.

  Geography and history provide the context for the challenge from China. That’s according to Monish Tourangbam, director of the India-based Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.

  “Since its inception in 1949, the Sino–Indian war of 1962 and its rise as a global power in the 21st century, communist China has influenced the conception and operationalization of India’s grand strategy,” Tourangbam told The Epoch Times.

  Jaishankar said China challenges each of India’s grand strategy objectives.

  “The biggest obstacle in each of these five objectives today, arguably, is China. So China is the biggest obstacle to India’s defense procurement, its technology policy, its trade policy, its industrial policy,” he said.

  Kondapalli said that since 2009, India has viewed China as a “long-term threat” to its strategic plans. He defined a short-term threat as one within a timeline of five years, a medium-term as 15 years, and long term as one with a timeline of about 35 years.

  

  It was in 2009 that the Indian position shifted to fighting a two-front war—meaning against Pakistan and China—“under the nuclear threshold,” he said, “because both are nuclear.”

  “But this is the armed forces strategy, rather than national strategy,” he said, adding that India faces tremendous challenges from China from all other fronts.

  Kondapalli said that within India’s grand strategy, the China factor is “uncertain or even negative” due to its territorial dispute with India. He said this dispute is long-term.

  “This is not going to be resolved [in the short term]. So you have to factor China in the territorial dispute in the grand strategy,” he said.

  Jaishankar cited active competition from China in India’s neighborhood—in countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Meanwhile, the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific has also been altered by China’s rise. India is working with other countries to counter that, he added.

  Even in international institutions, China is trying to block India’s ascent, he noted.

  “China is ultimately the main power most responsible for blocking, say, U.N. Security Council reform, India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group on certain trade issues, and things like that. There is a conflict of interest,” he said.

  India’s role in global institutions is increasing. Throughout its 2023 presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) international forum, it played a crucial role in an expanded BRICS and in other platforms of global governance, according to Tourangbam.

  However, China is using a two-pronged approach to challenge that increasing influence, he said.

  “China’s challenge to India’s rise in global institutions is both ideational and material,” Tourangbam said. India’s democracy and its inclusive model of global governance make it appealing, he said. However, China’s sheer economic size and influence are a challenge for New Delhi to navigate in global institutions.

  China’s grand strategy is to be number one: to replace the United States, in particular. Beijing also wants to be number one in Asia, Kondapalli said. But there are powers in Asia—India, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—that can compete for that influence and do not want China to mitigate their footprint.

  “China’s role in South Asia, Southeast Asia, where it wants to marginalize India, is not acceptable to India,” he said. India’s grand strategy will thus include countering the Chinese grand strategy vis-a-vis territorial issues and competition in Asia.

  There are many elements of the strategy, he noted. One element is the QUAD alliance between India, the United States, Japan, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific. Another is Exercise Malabar—joint maritime military exercises between the QUAD countries. Another element is the individual Free Trade Agreements between India and various nations.

  And yet another is the recent Modi–Trump meeting. Of that, Kondapelli said, “what transpired we don’t know.”

  

  Looking Toward a Multipolar World

  With its rapid economic growth, India is forecast to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, behind the United States and China.

  Jaishankar described three global schools of thought—unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity—viewed from the perspectives of the three likely leading global economies over the next two decades: the United States, China, and India.

  The academic terms describe three systems of geopolitical power distribution. A unipolar world is dominated by one power; a bipolar world is dominated by two major powers, and in a multipolar world, power is distributed among several states. 

  India’s grand strategy needs to be understood in the context of expectations that it will make the list of top global powers in the near future, he said.

  The United States “is number one,” Jaishankar said. “In an ideal world, the U.S. wants a unipolar world. It has a pure competitor in China today.”

  Meanwhile, China—despite its long-term ambition for a unipolar world in which it is number one—acknowledges the bipolarity of today’s world. Its ambition to be the leading global power does not contradict that acknowledgment.

  “When China says it wants a new type of great power relationship or talks of avoiding the Thucydides Trap, it is actually acknowledging a bipolar world, but asking the U.S. not to contest it,” Jaishankar said. The Thucydides Trap is the theory—popularized by Harvard scholar Graham Allison—that when a rising global power threatens a ruling one, war frequently results.

  Further, “India, being number three, wants a multipolar [world],” he said. “So I think part of it just depends on where they sit.” 

  While China supports multilateralism on certain issues and forums, Tourangban said, its support is aimed at blunting America’s influence.

  India, on the other hand, aims to create a more inclusive global order, he said.

  “India wants to create an externally conducive security environment for its economic rise, and its support for a multipolar world order recognizes the interdependence of economies. Expanding its basket of economic partners, without jeopardizing its core security interests, lies at the heart of India’s support for effective multilateralism in a multipolar world,” he said.

  With India’s imminent rise as the third largest global economy, a new global economic paradigm will evolve, according to Jaishankar.

  The U.S. economy is currently worth over $30 trillion. The Chinese economy is worth over $19 trillion. India is currently the fifth-largest global economy. It is expected to steal Japan’s fourth-place spot in the next year or so. And, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings, by 2030, India is expected to surpass $7 trillion and become the world’s third-largest economy.

  Nonetheless, “there [will] be a big gap between the U.S. and China, on the one hand, and between China and India on the other,” Jaishankar said. There will also emerge a big gap between India and everyone else on that list, he said. But precisely by virtue of that gap, India will play a leading role in a multipolar world, he said.

  The situation will secure a unique place for India, Jaishankar said. India will guard that place to prevent its interests from being marginalized in decision-making by the United States and China. 

  “India will strive for a more multipolar world, which means a world where everything is not simply decided by the U.S. and China. I think that’s a great, good concern for India,” he said.

  How India will secure and advance its interests in a multipolar world order will be a “test of fire” for India’s grand strategy, said Tourangbam.

  

  India’s Role in World Order

  When asked what role India would play in facilitating a multipolar world, Jaishankar listed a number of objectives.

  Those include taking a leadership role in Southeast Asia, securing the Indian Ocean, connecting with its neighbors and with the Middle East, and using “carrots and sticks” to coax Pakistan away from supporting terror groups.

  They also include managing India’s relationship with China in a way that promotes competition but doesn’t lead to conflict, according to Jaishankar.

  Delving into this further, Kondapalli explained that India’s approach to multilateral forums is led by its interests.

  Both India and China are a part of various common multilateral forums. It’s assumed that they are not there to discuss bilateral issues or sovereignty issues, he said. Instead, their involvement implies that problems can be resolved through confidence-building measures and peaceful strategies.

  Multilateral forums can be useful for advancing bilateral issues. Kondapalli cited a subtle approach by India on multilateral platforms—one example being the meeting between Modi and China’s Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan last year.  The two leaders decided to let their national security advisers discuss their territorial dispute.

  “And then we saw some forward momentum in this regard,” he said.

  Jaishankar emphasized that India’s thought leadership in a multipolar world would involve working with balancing powers, like the United States, Japan, Australia, and others, to “diversify and strengthen” supply chains.

  It would also mean countering China by diversifying Indian strategic interests. Having many strategic or economic partners would ensure that if China threatened to cut off supply chains or investment, it would not unduly affect India, he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 03/03/2025 – 00:00

• Putin Ally In Secret Talks With Trump Admin To Restart Nord Stream 2
  Putin Ally In Secret Talks With Trump Admin To Restart Nord Stream 2

  A close friend of Vladimir Putin – and like the Russian president, also a spy – has been engineering a restart of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe with the backing of US investors, a once unthinkable move which according to the FT, shows the breadth of Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Moscow. According to the Nikkei-owned publication, the efforts on a deal were the brainchild of Matthias Warnig, an ex-Stasi officer in East Germany who until 2023 ran Nord Stream 2’s parent company for the Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom.

  

  Warnig’s plan involved outreach to the Trump team through US businessmenas part of back-channel efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine while deepening economic ties between the US and Russia.

  If this was just some unilateral attempt to get the pipeline that was bombed by Western intelligence agents and assorited Ukrainian hangers-on back online, it would hardly be a surprise. However, according to the report it appears that at least several “prominent” Trump administration figures are aware of the initiative to bring in US investors, and they see it as part of the push to rebuild relations with Moscow.

  While there have been several expressions of interest, one US-led consortium of investors has drawn up the outlines of a post-sanctions deal with Gazprom. 

  

  Meanwhile, senior EU officials have become aware of the Nord Stream 2 discussion only in recent weeks, and leaders of several European countries are concerned and have discussed the matter, although it is unclear what the prevailing sense on the ground within the corridors of Brussels. It is far easier, for example, to guess what Germany thinks about a return of much cheaper and far more abundant Russian energy if virtue signaling and politics were not an issue.

  One of Nord Stream 2’s two pipelines was blown up in what now appears to have been a US attack in September 2022 that destroyed both pipelines of its older sister project Nord Stream 1. The other Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has an annual capacity of 27.5bn cubic metres of natural gas, is undamaged but has never been used.

  The latest plan would in theory give the US unparalleled sway over energy supplies to Europe, after EU countries moved to end their dependence on Russian gas in the aftermath of the invasion.

  That said, the obstacles are considerable: a deal would require the US to lift sanctions against Russia, Russia to agree to resume sales it cut off during the war, and Germany to allow the gas to flow to any potential buyers in Europe.

  “The US would say, ‘Well, now Russia will be dependable because trustworthy Americans are in the middle of it’,’” said a former senior US official, who was aware of some of the dealmaking efforts. The US investors would collect “money for nothing”, he added.

  The talks come as the Trump administration races to seal a peace deal through bilateral discussions with Russia that have excluded Europe and Ukraine, spooking deep-state apparatchiks in European capitals who fear a US détente with Moscow could threaten the continent. Trump has promised deeper economic co-operation with Russia if a peace agreement can be reached.

  Putin has talked up the economic benefits he says the US could reap with the Kremlin in the event of a settlement in Ukraine, claiming that “several companies” were already in touch over potential deals.

  Nord Stream 2 AG, the pipeline’s Swiss-based parent company, received an exceptional stay on bankruptcy proceedings in January by at least four months.

  According to a redacted court document, Nord Stream 2’s shareholder — Gazprom — argued that the new Trump administration, as well as the German election in February 2025, “presumably can have significant consequences on the circumstances of Nord Stream 2” to warrant a delay. The submission pointed to “complex geopolitical affairs” and the sanctions regime.

  

  Warnig told the Financial Times he was “not involved in any discussions with any American politicians or business representatives”, adding that he was “following in this respect the rules [as a] US-sanctioned person”. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said he had no information on any talks regarding the pipeline.

  Warnig, 69, has said he became a close friend of Putin’s in the 1990s after setting up an office for lender Dresdner Bank in St Petersburg, where the then-unknown Putin headed the city’s foreign relations committee. The two became so close that Putin asked Warnig to put up his daughters at the banker’s house in Rödermark when their mother was seriously injured in a car accident.

  Putin, who speaks fluent German, taught Warnig’s children to ski in Davos and invited him to his father’s funeral, according to a 2023 interview with the former Stasi officer in Die Zeit.

  But Warnig called Putin’s invasion an “indescribable mistake” and resigned from the boards of two Kremlin-run energy companies after the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022. He told Die Zeit that he made a personal appeal to Putin to end the invasion a few months in and said the Russian president was so isolated that “the only person who can still say something to him is me”.

  Warnig left Nord Stream 2 AG, the Russian-owned company that manages the pipeline, in 2023, but told Die Zeit that Gazprom’s chief executive, Alexei Miller, had guaranteed to cover its costs in the hope of saving what remained.

  Joe Biden’s US administration sanctioned Warnig and Nord Stream 2 AG in 2022. Biden officials showed little interest in a proposal to buy Nord Stream 2 last year from Stephen Lynch, an American businessman with a record of working in Russia. Other potential investors have come forward since Lynch first expressed interest. The person with direct knowledge of Gazprom’s discussions told the FT that its advanced talks were with a different US-led consortium from Lynch.

  Trump was outspoken in his criticism of the pipeline during his first term as president. It has become a symbol for those who blamed Germany and Europe, by extension, for relying too much on Russian gas and helping to finance Moscow’s military machine. But some of Trump’s team now see the pipeline, which runs from Russia’s Vyborg in the Gulf of Finland to Greifswald on Germany’s Baltic coast, as a strategic asset that can be leveraged in the Ukraine peace talks, according to administration officials.

  That said, the complex ownership structure of Nord Stream 2 presents serious potential obstacles for any investment. Nord Stream 2 is 100% owned by Gazprom. But five European energy companies — Shell, Uniper, OMV, Engie and Wintershall — collectively provided around half of its $11bn construction costs through loans. All five European companies have written off those debts.

  The German government in 2022 pulled the plug on the licensing procedure of Nord Stream 2 and never issued the paperwork required to operate it.

  

  Ownership of the pipeline could in theory give US investors a leve r to control Russian gas flows to Europe, which is a key market for US liquefied natural gas exports shipped across the Atlantic in tankers.

  But former senior US officials and western businessmen with experience investing in Russia said Trump and Putin’s sign-off alone would not be enough to get Nord Stream 2 up and running.

  “I can’t imagine the board of any major US corporations saying, ‘Hey, let’s jump back into the Russian market’ right now, and the Russians know this too — they’ve seen these oscillations in American policy,” a former senior US official said.

  “Europe still has sanctions in place, and Germany signing up for the rehabilitation of Nord Stream would cause huge rifts. Anything like that is a ways off.”

  One can only wonder which three-letter agency said former senior US official worked for. Meanwhile, news of the report is – according to one of Goldman’s top traders – one of the reasons why the bank expects a brutal short squeeze tomorrow, to wit:

  Tomorrow will be a painful short squeeze day, as risk assets are likely to rally aggressively not only on the crypto news flow over the weekend: I see 4 positive weekend news.

  • Putin ally pushes deal to restart Nord Stream 2 with US backing. Short EU natural Gas still in place.
  • US hints that tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be lower than 25%. Probably an EM risk rally.
  • Germany’s new gov are quickly setting up two 400bn special funds, one for defence one for infrastructure.
  • Bessent weekend interview focused on 1) lowering inflation via controlling 10y yields 2) Tariffs as a path dependent toll 3) Constructive on the relationship with China.

  More in the following article.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 23:30

• Citi Does It Again, Mistakenly Credits Client Account With $81 Trillion Instead Of $280
  Citi Does It Again, Mistakenly Credits Client Account With $81 Trillion Instead Of $280

  Five years after Citi triggered the biggest fat finger of all time when it mistakenly sent $900 million to creditors engaged in a contentious battle over the debt of cosmetics group Revlon, a transaction which resulted in a brutal legal fight and a crushing plunge in its reputation, the bank has done it again.

  According to the FT, Citigroup credited a client’s account with $81tn when it meant to send only $280, an error that surely hinder the bank’s attempt to persuade regulators that it has fixed long-standing operational issues.

  Citi’s $81tn near miss in April was due to an input error and a back-up system with a cumbersome user interface, according to FT sources. In mid-March, four transactions totaling $280 destined for a customer’s escrow account in Brazil had been blocked by a screen that catches payments that are potential sanction violations. The payment was quickly cleared, but nonetheless remained stuck in the bank’s system and unable to be completed normally.

  Citi’s technology team instructed the payments processing employee to manually input the transactions into a rarely used back-up screen. One quirk of the program was that the amount field came pre-populated with 15 zeros, which the person inputting a transaction needed to delete. Needless to say, that did not happen.

  The erroneous internal transfer, which occurred last April and was first reported by the FT, was missed by both a payments employee and a second official assigned to check the transaction before it was approved to be processed at the start of business the following day.

  A third employee detected a problem with the bank’s account balances, catching the payment 90 minutes after it was posted. The payment was reversed several hours later, according to an internal account of the event seen by the Financial Times and two people familiar with the event.

  No funds left Citi, which only disclosed the “near miss” to the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The bank said its “detective controls promptly identified the inputting error between two Citi ledger accounts and we reversed the entry” and that these mechanisms “would have also stopped any funds leaving the bank”.

  It added: “While there was no impact to the bank or our client, the episode underscores our continued efforts to continue eliminating manual processes and automating controls.” Considering the bank’s “manual processes” just transferred 3 times the GDP of the US to some unknown account, it is safe to say that there are absolutely no controls whatsoever.

  According to the FT, a total of 10 near misses – incidents when a bank processes the wrong amount but is ultimately able to recover the funds – of $1bn or greater occurred at Citi last year. The figure was down slightly from 13 the previous year. Citi declined to comment on this broader set of events.

  Near misses do not need to be reported to regulators, meaning there is no comprehensive public data on how often these incidents occur across the sector. Still, former regulators and bank risk managers said near misses of greater than $1bn were unusual across the US bank industry.

  The series of near misses at Citi highlights how the Wall Street bank is struggling to repair its operational troubles nearly five years after it mistakenly sent $900mn to creditors engaged in a contentious battle over the debt of cosmetics group Revlon, and who then refused to return the bulk of the transfer. Readers may recall that it was Citi’s mistaken Revlon payout led to the ousting of then-CEO Michael Corbat, big fines and the imposition of regulatory consent orders requiring it to fix the issues. Clearly the “issues” have not been fixed.

  Jane Fraser, who took over as Citi’s top executive from Corbat in 2021, has described fixing Citi’s regulatory issues as her “top priority”. Still, the group was fined $136mn last year by the OCC and Federal Reserve for failing to correct problems in risk control and data management.

  Which brings up an interesting question: what would you do if you woke up on morning and found a dollar number with 15 zeros behind it? Here is one money laundering proposal from Tanning Salon Don.

  Wake up, see $81t in my account. Start moving fast

  Load up 10 flash drives with $1b in every kind of Crypto and head straight to the airport

  Give my fiancé 10 minutes to decide if she’s coming with me

  We will probably see our friends and family again but I don’t know

  Once in Columbia lay low a few days. Distribute flash drives in random hotel rooms. Send one back to my family with the note “I’m alive. Put this flash drive somewhere safe, don’t tell anyone about this”

  Then find a coke dealer. “Let me talk to your boss for $10k. Let me talk to his boss for $20k”

  “I need a new identity and European passport. Can pay any amount”

  Then I fly somewhere in Europe and open a tanning salon / med spa to start laundering money. Within a year start claiming $10m of EBITDA and paying taxes.

  Then start an AI company burning a ton of money

  Fly to Saudi Arabia for VC funding but in the meetings I put my cards on the table

  “Listen. I’ll give you $5b of crypto if you legitimately buy my AI business for $700m”

  Just need one taker

  Buy a gold immigration card

  Move back to the states

  You now have a legitimate $700m in the system and a few flash drives you can use if ever needed

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 22:44

• Hegseth Orders DoD Civilian Employees To Respond To 'What Did You Do Last Week?' Email – Then Torches Hillary Clinton
  Hegseth Orders DoD Civilian Employees To Respond To ‘What Did You Do Last Week?’ Email – Then Torches Hillary Clinton

  Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on Sunday that all civilian DoD employees need to respond to an email from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) asking them what they did last week – which Elon Musk and DOGE are now making a weekly task.

  

  “I am now directing each member of the department’s civilian workforce — just civilian — to provide those five bullets on what they accomplished in their specific jobs last week,” Hegseth posted on X. “To reply to that email and CC their immediate supervisor.”

  “It’s a simple task, really, as Elon [Musk] said, as the President recognized in our first Cabinet meeting, just a pulse check — ‘Are you there out?’ — to DOD civilians,” Hegseth added – noting that DoD civilian employees will soon get a second email outlining next steps “that they need to take in order to comply with this initiative.”

  🇺🇸🇺🇸

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe move comes after Pentagon officials initially instructed employees to ignore the first OPM email from Feb. 22. Hegseth said the ‘hold off’ notice was only temporary so that the DoD could conduct “a review of Pentagon procedures and consultation with the Office of Personal Management.”

  According to Hegseth, the Dod “needed to be careful” due to the sensitive nature of Pentagon work.

  Meanwhile, Hegseth took time out of his day to torch former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on X, after Clinton suggested he was kowtowing to Russia based on an anonymous report amplified by Gizmodo.

  pic.twitter.com/2W9Wp3LwR1

  — Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Are you not entertained?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 22:30

• US Gives Israel Green Light To Stay In Lebanon 'Indefinitely'
  US Gives Israel Green Light To Stay In Lebanon ‘Indefinitely’

  Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

  Israel’s decision to continue to occupy territory in southern Lebanon beyond the prior February 18 deadline came without a lot of official comment from the US. According to recent comments of Israeli DM Israel Katz, however, the US gave them a “green light” to remain militarily in Lebanon indefinitely.

  Israeli media was reporting around the deadline that the US was backing the continued occupation of five surveillance posts inside southern Lebanon. The US never directly confirmed that, however, and that Israel remains in Lebanon just came and went without official US comment.

  

  The ceasefire ending the Israeli invasion of Lebanon was meant to provide a 60-day window for Israeli withdrawal, which would’ve ended January 26. The US guaranteed that Israel would be out by then, but then later endorsed extending the deadline to February 18. They similarly talked about February 18 being a firm deadline that would not be extended, but then stopped talking about it at all beyond that.

  Israel started building the hilltop surveillance posts before the February 18 deadline, and Israeli FM Gideon Sa’ar said that the “strategic high points” would be necessary to retain temporarily, until the Lebanese Army has sufficient control of the south.

  The temporary nature of those posts seems to be at considerable doubt from Katz’s comments. He no longer presented this as anything to do with Lebanese Army control of the area, and just maintains that it is “not time-dependent.” It appears Israel will be staying as long as it wants, and the US is comfortable with that idea.

  Lebanon is not so keen on the continued occupation, as it’s condemned Israel staying in the area and urged the US and France, the initial guarantors of the ceasefire, to do something about it. France proposed sending its own troops to replace the Israelis, but Israel rejected that.

  Adding to the Lebanese disquiet about Israel’s surveillance-focused occupation, the Lebanese Army announced that it had found a number of hidden surveillance devices in southern Lebanon since Israeli troops left the populated areas. Sensors and cameras were reportedly found hidden in trees and among rocks around the area.

  

  In practice, the tree-cameras are probably less of a problem than the actual Israeli ground troops still in Lebanese territory for surveillance purposes. Yet even those cameras reflect a reality where getting Israel militarily out of Lebanon is only the first step toward ending the surveillance operation.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 21:30

• Iran Sacks Economy Minister As US Sanctions Persist, Crisis Worsens
  Iran Sacks Economy Minister As US Sanctions Persist, Crisis Worsens

  Via The Cradle

  Iran’s Minister of Economy Abdolnaser Hemmati was impeached on Sunday after the Iranian parliament gave a vote of no confidence, coming as Tehran faces an economic crisis and continued sanctions from the west. 

  Hemmati appeared before parliament on Sunday to address mounting complaints from lawmakers over his ministry’s performance amid the Islamic Republic’s worsening economic crisis. 

  

  The motion to dismiss the minister received 182 votes in favor. Eighty-nine voted against the motion, and one abstained. 

  Hemmati gave a speech during the open session, defending his ministry’s policies but welcoming the call for his impeachment as part of the democratic process. 

  “In 2018, the country’s economic conditions were much more problematic than they are now, but we stood firm and withstood the maximum pressure,” he said, adding that it is “the right of the people’s representatives” and that “Impeachment is a manifestation of political progress and will lead to greater empathy, but they are wrong about my lack of responsiveness to problems.”

  “The claim that the government has increased the exchange rate is not true,” he asserted, adding that US President Donald Trump has “declared economic war on us.”

  President Masoud Pezeshkian attended the session in defense of his minister, stressing that Iran’s economic issues date back years and replacing a single official will not remedy the crisis. 

  “Can one person alone decide and implement economic measures, and then we blame him for all the errors and say that if he leaves, the problems will be solved? The only way to overcome problems is through unity and empathy,” the president said. 

  Iran’s currency has fallen to a record low against the US dollar recently, resulting in a surge in prices for local products and an increased demand for gold. 

  Since entering office in January, Trump has renewed his “maximum pressure” policy of sanctions against Iran, which began during his first term. Trump has particularly cracked down hard on Iranian oil shipments. Tehran has blasted Washington for expressing a willingness to hold nuclear negotiations and, at the same time, resuming a full-fledged economic war against the country. 

  Pezeshkian and other Iranian officials say they will not negotiate under pressure. On Saturday, Pezeshkian said that “engagement, trade, and cooperation with regional nations, when executed effectively and in conjunction with regional organizations such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the BRICS group, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), will render US sanctions ineffective, and we will confront these challenges with strength, dignity, and honor.”

  Iran’s Parliament IMPEACHES economy minister

  Hemmati blamed for mismanaging economy and skyrocketing inflation

  Also accused of sabotaging electricity situation to PRESSURE Iran into pro-US negotiations https://t.co/YuNPGZWeEz pic.twitter.com/QYD1FCnvM1

  — RT (@RT_com) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “If we come together, we can create the necessary conditions to solve problems alongside producers, industrialists, managers, and the talented individuals in our country,” he added. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 20:30

• Musk Is A Special Government Employee – What Is That?
  Musk Is A Special Government Employee – What Is That?

  Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer  via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Some noteworthy figures in the Trump administration fall under the category of special government employees. The most high-profile one is Elon Musk.

  

  The status of special government employee allows individuals to work for both the federal government and the private sector simultaneously. Those working as special government employees are limited to working up to 130 days per year unless the administration expressly extends that limit.

  Congress first passed legislation in the early 1960s to allow the executive branch to bring in outside experts without forcing them out of their private sector or academic positions. This has allowed experts in various sectors to serve on advisory boards or in specialized roles at the president’s request without giving up their careers, like regular government employees.

  This allowance, signed into law by President John F. Kennedy in 1962, gives permission for the government to temporarily employ experts without aggressive conflict of interest restrictions.

  Because of special government employee allowances, specialized experts such as doctors, scientists, and business leaders have contributed to national policy. These temporary roles are subject to most of the rules and regulations that apply to regular full-time employees.

  Special government employees are prohibited from dealing with subjects that would create a financial conflict of interest for themselves and they aren’t allowed to use their role to influence an election or engage in political activity while they’re on duty.

  Some examples of frequently held special government employee positions are members of federal advisory committees, consultants at the Department of Justice, and scientific and medical experts for federal health agencies.

  While the government doesn’t offer exact figures for special government employees, in 2016, the Government Accountability Office released findings that indicated that from 2005 to 2014, an average of about 2,000 special government employees worked for the government each year, excluding those serving on federal boards.

  High Profile Special Government Employees 

  The designation of Musk as a special government employee has raised questions about his actual position and authority.

  Officially, Musk serves as a senior adviser to the president, a position similar to that of former President Joe Biden’s special government employee adviser, Anita Dunn.

  President Donald Trump has said that Musk oversees the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a the new advisory panel designed to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government.

  Trump told investors at an event in Miami on Feb. 19 that when he signed the order to create DOGE, he put Musk in charge.

  The day to day operations of DOGE are undertaken by Amy Gleason, as acting administrator of DOGE, a White House official confirmed on Feb. 25.

  *  *  *

  Support independent media. Grab a ZeroHedge hat at the ZH Store, or buy any 2 bags of coffee and receive a free ZeroHedge Tumbler!

  

  *  *  *

  Another high-profile special government employee is Steve Witkoff, who is the administration’s Middle East special envoy and is working to handle peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, as well as in the Middle East. Like Musk, Witkoff is a billionaire, and like Trump, his career has been spent in real estate investing and development.

  Special government employee David Sacks serves as the White House’s artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency czar, advising the president on issues related to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. He is the former PayPal chief operating officer and currently a partner and co-founder at Craft Ventures, a venture capital firm.

  Trump’s faith adviser, Paula White, is another special government employee with a presence at the White House as head of the White House Faith Office. She has also maintained her position in the ministry outside of government.

  Controversial Special Government Employees

  Not all special government employees have had a quiet tenure working in Washington. Some of the more contentious figures include Huma Abedin, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s deputy chief of staff. Abedin was a special government employee who also worked for Teneo, a consulting firm.

  The State Department’s employment of Abedin caused concern for some, including Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who said the designation of special government employee was created for “technical outside expertise rather than for a current government employee’s convenience or desire for outside employment.”

  “The executive branch should not do an end run around Congress and ignore the time restriction or use the designation merely to allow current federal employees to enhance their income with outside employment that might present conflicts of interest.”

  President Joe Biden’s top aide Anita Dunn also held an special government employee designation. She worked for the White House while keeping her Democratic consulting and lobbying firm position at SKDK.

  Special government employees have had a role in response to major national events, including serving on the 9/11 Commission and as advisers on COVID-19 policy.

  When asked about Musk’s status, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed previous comments, saying he is an special government employee who is overseeing DOGE and is working under Trump’s direction.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 20:00

• Can Europe Ever Catch Up On Defense Spending: US Spent $8.4 Trillion In Past Decade… Rest Of NATO Just $3.8 Trillion
  Can Europe Ever Catch Up On Defense Spending: US Spent $8.4 Trillion In Past Decade… Rest Of NATO Just $3.8 Trillion

  By Chris Marsh of Money: Inside and Out

  Europe has to urgently find a solution to a depleted defence capability.

  But how much should Europe be looking to spend on the military? It’s useful to begin by considering how much neglect there has been in recent years.

  A decade of underspend

  Consider NATO official figures on defense spending.

  Since 2014, in the aggregate NATO countries have spent around 2.5% of GDP on defense. But this is largely because the US spends closer to 3.5% of GDP (and is the largest country in economic terms.) Europe and Canada combined spent only 1.5% of GDP for most of the past decade—only increasing to 2% of GDP in 2024.

  Looking at the large European countries, the UK has spent more than 2% of GDP throughout whereas, until recently, Germany consistently spent below 1.5% of GDP and France just below 2% of GDP. Italy and Spain (not shown) typically spend less than Germany.

  

  Stock versus flows

  Much of the discussion about increasing defense spending in light of recent geopolitical developments fails to acknowledge that this protracted under-spend has left a stock problem — a depleted stock of weapons, other hardware, and technology; but also gaps in operational capacity, full spectrum battlefield capability, and personnel.

  As such, while increasing defense spending today is welcome, it will only fill the “stock” gap slowly.

  Consider the cumulative underspend by NATO countries over the past decade relative to the 2% target and relative to US spending in % of GDP. Data provided by NATO only begins in 2014. This is shown in the chart below.

  • Germany’s shortfall to 2% is largest in absolute terms and adds up to above EUR200bn, Italy about EUR150bn, etc. The aggregate shortfall for Europe is EUR850bn.

  • To reach further and “catch-up” with the US spending closer to 3.5% of GDP Germany would need to spend an additional EUR550bn (or EUR800bn in total), Italy and France would need to spend above EUR400bn in total, and so on. The aggregate shortfall for Europe since 2014 exceeds EUR2,650bn.

  

  This same shortfall can be measured relative to the latest GDP as in the next chart.

  With the exceptions of Poland, Greece and Estonia, European countries are typically at least 10% of GDP behind compared to if their spending had matched the US—and this is closer to 20% in many cases.

  

  Time to act

  Of course, it doesn’t quite work like this.

  Perhaps it could be argued the US is preparing for possible military action on two fronts at the same time—Europe and the Pacific. As such, US spending has to go further.

  In addition, a cumulative past spending shortfall might be made up without a one-for-one spending today—alternatively the hurdle to technological catch-up is so great that more may be needed. A military expert would need to break this down.

  The point is, the discussion about increased defense spending appears to be focused on correcting the existing flow shortfall—rather than addressing the stock, or capability challenges due to past neglect.

  Still, over the past decade the US has spent USD8.4 trillion on defense. The rest of NATO? USD3.8 trillion.

  So the United States has spent more that double the rest of NATO since 2014. If the US has stepped out of the alliance, de facto or de jure, what spending need to fill the capability gap?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 19:00

• "Needs To Be Torn Down": LA Fire Stations Are In Total Disrepair
  “Needs To Be Torn Down”: LA Fire Stations Are In Total Disrepair

  LAFD fire stations are in disrepair, with firefighters often funding and handling repairs themselves, according to The Free Press.  

  At a Pico-Robertson station, two firefighters were seen filling a three-foot pothole with sand. At another, a sewage leak had persisted for six months—“now the ceiling is falling in.”

  A source reported that at least 12 of the city’s 106 stations were infested with mold. At Fire Station 112, an April 2022 report found 2.3 million spores in the dining hall, where a safe level is under 700. A firefighter who paid for the test claimed his chief became so ill he was hospitalized, resulting in a thumb amputation. Another firefighter refused to enter the kitchen because his “face would break into hives.”

  At a station east of downtown, a broken window had been boarded up, and roof tiles showed water damage. Another firefighter stated that the LAFD ignored a broken garage door for a year—only repairing it after the community raised funds.

  

  A firefighter, speaking anonymously for fear of retaliation, said “anyone legitimate would say the station needs to be torn down.”

  The Free Press article notes that the LAFD’s budget was cut by $17.6 million last year, a reduction Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said had “adversely affected” the department’s “ability to maintain core operations,” including fire prevention. Mayor Karen Bass has denied that the cuts have impacted firefighting efforts, despite blazes that have killed 27 people and destroyed 12,000 buildings.

  Firefighters working 24-hour shifts have been struggling in deteriorating conditions, affecting both morale and well-being.

  At a Cahuenga Pass station on Wednesday night, a firefighter grew emotional when discussing the state of his workplace. “I’ve complained and no one will listen. I’ve begged and pleaded,” he said, looking down. “I used to be bitter, upset, and angry. But I just gave up.”

  “We can’t extend ourselves if we don’t have anything. We’re not looking for money, we’re just looking to do our job.”

  You can watch the Free Press’ full video here. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 18:30

• "I Love BTC & ETH" – Crypto Spikes As Trump Discusses Strategic Reserve Ahead Of White House Summit
  “I Love BTC & ETH” – Crypto Spikes As Trump Discusses Strategic Reserve Ahead Of White House Summit

  Update (1630ET): If you see a flying pig, shrug it off because the following tweet from none other than arch-Bitcoin-nemesis Peter Schiff will likely blow your mind:

  We screen-grabbed it (just in case he changes his mind

  

  Additionally, it looks like someone was pretty confident of this occurring…

  Going 50x long on $eth & $btc with $200,000,000 is crazy.

  This is either a very rich degenerate or a market maker that is about to move the market in a meaningful way on the spot side OR

  Simply put – this looks like insider March 7th confirmation of US SBR. Locked.

  2% dip… pic.twitter.com/Ey7aQyePBM

  — Jason A. Williams (@GoingParabolic) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1045ET): On the heels of the announcement of a Cyrpto Summit at The White House this week, President Trump took to Truth Social to explain some of the details, specifically mentioning a Strategic Reserve.

  A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA.

  I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World.

  We are MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

  All three of the ‘altcoin’s have shot up in price since the post:

  

  And, despite the non-mention of Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency is spiking above $88k…

  

  Many suggest the term ‘includes’ the altcoins does not mean ‘excludes’ bitcoin or ethereum. 

  We shall see if our suggestion from May of last year comes true…

  Trump should announce if elected he will buy 2 milllion BTC and 10 million ETH as part of a strategic US crypto reserve

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 26, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Well that didn’t take long for Trump to clarify…

  

  There’s a lot of traders short Ethereum that could feel some serious pain if this comes to pass…

  

  And the squeeze is starting…

  

  President Trump has announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve consisting of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies. This is consistent with his week-one E.O. 14178. President Trump is keeping his promise to make the U.S. the “Crypto Capital of the World.” More to come at the Summit.

  — David Sacks (@davidsacks47) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  As Zoltan Vardai detailed earlier via CoinTelegraph.com, US President Donald Trump will host the first White House Crypto Summit on March 7, bringing together industry leaders to discuss regulatory policies, stablecoin oversight, and the potential role of Bitcoin in the US financial system.

  

  The attendees will include “prominent founders, CEOs, and investors from the crypto industry,” along with members of the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets, according to an announcement shared by the White House “AI and crypto czar,” David Sacks, in a March 1 X post.

  The summit will be chaired by Sacks and administered by Bo Hines, the executive director of the Working Group.

  

  Source: David Sacks

  Sacks was appointed White House Crypto and AI and Czar on Dec. 6, 2024, to “work on a legal framework so the Crypto industry has the clarity it has been asking for, and can thrive in the U.S.,” Trump wrote in the announcement. 

  Part of Sacks’ role will be to “safeguard” online speech and “steer us away from Big Tech bias and censorship,” Trump added.

  

  Source: Donald Trump

  Trump has previously signaled that he intends to make crypto policy a national priority and make the US a global hub for blockchain innovation. The upcoming summit may set the tone for crypto regulations over the next four years.

  Sacks only has two years to push through pro-crypto policies before the 2026 midterm elections in the US, Joe Doll, the general counsel for NFT marketplace Magic Eden, told Cointelegraph in an interview.

  According to Doll, the threat of a gridlocked government could stifle regulations, and the current administration must push through pro-crypto policies while still in control of both chambers of Congress.

  Stablecoin, Bitcoin reserve regulation remain focus

  While there are no additional details about the summit’s agenda, stablecoin regulation and legislation related to a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve have been at the forefront of regulatory discussions in the US.

  The White House announcement came days after Jeremy Allaire, co-founder of Circle, the company behind the world’s second-largest stablecoin, said that stablecoin issuers worldwide should be required to register with US authorities.

  Citing consumer protection, Allaire argued that US dollar-based stablecoin issuers should not get a “free pass,” enabling them to “ignore the US law and go do whatever the hell you want wherever and sell into the United States.” Allaire told Bloomberg:

  “Whether you are an offshore company or based in Hong Kong, if you want to offer your US dollar stablecoin in the US, you should need to register in the US just like we have to go register everywhere else.”

  The upcoming summit may shed more light on upcoming stablecoin legislation, considering Sacks previously stated that stablecoins could “extend the dollar’s dominance internationally.”

  Interest in a US-based strategic Bitcoin reserve is also on the rise. So far, at least 24 states have introduced legislation related to a potential Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoinlaws data shows.

  

  US states with Bitcoin reserve bill propositions. Source: Bitcoinlaws

  However, the state-level Bitcoin reserve initiatives may not represent a pivotal moment for Bitcoin; they are only a “symbolic move” unless a significant purchase is announced, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo.

  “Unless the hearing unveils a near-term purchase plan or a major policy shift, the market’s response will likely be mild, as Texas’ pro-crypto stance is already well known,” Kalchev told Cointelegraph.

  Bitcoin has averaged over 1,077% returns over the past five years, showing the lucrative potential of a long-term holding strategy.

  *  *  *

  Back In Stock: Anza MINI-Swat! Like it’s big brother, only more concealable…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 17:50

• Israel Threatens Military Intervention In Damascus As Internal Fighting Engulfs Suburb
  Israel Threatens Military Intervention In Damascus As Internal Fighting Engulfs Suburb

  Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar has made some interesting new comments on the Syria situation over the weekend, at a moment the Israeli military (IDF) is occupying whole swathes of the country’s south in the wake of the December 8th ouster of Bashar al-Assad.

  Sa’ar described Syria’s new government which is led by self-declared president Ahmed al-Sharaa (Jolani) as “a bunch of jihadists” who were “not elected… by the Syrian people.”

  

  The Israeli top diplomat stressed at a press conference in Jerusalem that “it is important that the new rulers of Damascus respect the rights of minorities,” and highlighted that “we also have a Druze community here in Israel.”

  We should note that the irony is of course that Israel had supported the Islamist anti-Assad insurgency from the start of the war, including al-Qaeda elements – as even one CIA official at the time admitted.

  The remarks came after fighting has engulfed the Damascus suburban city of Jaramana. Militants from Jolani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are clashing with Druze militants, in an effort to disarm all other factions except the Jolani regime’s HTS fighters. Syrian Christians also have a heavy presence in Jaramana.

  The Druze are an ethno-religious minority offshoot of Islam considered heretical by Sunnis. Their communities are present in Syria, Lebanon, the Golan Heights region, and some areas of Israel/Palestine. In Syria, they are mostly in the south, and tend to live in intermixed villages with Christians of the ancient Hauran region.

  Importantly, Israel might use the internal Syrian fighting to launch a further military intervention and landgrab, after reports have indicated the IDF already has units positioned just 20 to 25km south of Damascus:

  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the Israel Defense Forces on Saturday to “prepare to defend” the Druze-majority city of Jaramana on the outskirts of Damascus in Syria.

  A statement issued by Katz’s office said the Damascus suburb of Jaramana was “currently under attack by the forces of the Syrian regime.”

  Some regional reports say the current fighting happened when an HTS militant entered Jaramana and began firing in the air, after which he was killed by local armed Druze factions. Many areas of Syria have seen local residents refuse to give up their arms and form local patrols, not trusting the governance of HTS.

  At least one HTS fighter has been killed, and possibly more wounded in the fresh internal fighting…

  🇸🇾🇮🇱⚡- Druze-led As Suwaida Military Council reinforcements arrive in Jaramana, south of Damascus, Syria. https://t.co/Y6LSfd8srb pic.twitter.com/3W1bzpAdd5

  — Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts (@officialrnintel) March 1, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As for Israel’s Katz, he claimed, “We will not allow the extreme Islamic regime in Syria to harm the Druze. If the regime harms the Druze, it will be struck by us.” He added: “We are committed to our Druze brothers in Israel to do everything to prevent harm to their Druze brothers in Syria, and we will take all the steps required to maintain their safety.”

  However, rather than newfound humanitarian ‘concern’ for Syria’s religious minorities, this new crisis is clearly being used by Israel to justify greater military intervention in Syria – and possibly even the expanse of its ground occupation in the war-torn country. Israel’s military has already been launching airstrikes, primarily targeting former Syrian Arab Army bases to destroy remnant heavy weapons. Some Israeli officials have even eyed control of Damascus as part of the so-called ‘greater Israel project’.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 17:30

• Europe Unveils Rival Ukraine Peace Plan Backed By 'Boots On The Ground & Planes In The Air'
  Europe Unveils Rival Ukraine Peace Plan Backed By ‘Boots On The Ground & Planes In The Air’

  Update(1645ET): Is the UK trying to pull Trump into starting WW3? During Sunday’s security summit of European leaders to find an alternate peace plan to Washington’s, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a “coalition of the willing” to step up efforts in support of Kiev.

  Starmer said he hopes this coalition will gain support and leadership from the Trump White House. “We are at a crossroads in history today,” Starmer said after the summit of 18 leaders – which included Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

  Starmer unveiled a four point agreed-to ‘peace plan’ (..though not agreed to by the US):

  • to keep military aid flowing into Ukraine, and to keep increasing the economic pressure on Russia
  • that any lasting peace must ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security and Ukraine must be present at any peace talks
  • in the event of a peace deal, to boost Ukraine’s defensive capabilities to deter any future invasion
  • to develop a “coalition of the willing” to defend a deal in Ukraine and to guarantee peace afterwards

  But one crucial line in his remarks detailing the plan caught many people’s attention – the expressed willingness to put Western/NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine: “The UK are prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air,” Starmer said. He also announced a £1.6bn missile deal for Ukraine, saying this “support for Ukraine is unwavering.”

  Holy shit…

  UK PM Starmer proposes a new plan for Ukraine and wants Europe to up their economic spending and says “the UK are prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air”.

  It’s about to become clear to the world that NATO are the ones pushing for WW3. pic.twitter.com/jjQsmXXbi2

  — Clandestine (@WarClandestine) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  His rationale was that “We have to learn from the mistakes of the past, we cannot accept a weak deal… which Russia can breach with ease, instead any deal must be backed by strength.”

  He further in the wake of the disastrous Trump-Zelensky meeting said Europe will have to do the “heavy lifting” – and that’s when he said it would be backed by boots on the ground:

  The PM said his coalition “will intensify planning now, with real urgency” and reiterated that the “UK is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air”.

  He said: “Together with others, Europe must do the heavy-lifting but to support peace in our continent and to succeed, this effort must have strong US backing. We’re working with the US on this point.”

  Speaking to journalists after the summit, the PM said he did “not accept that the US is an unreliable ally”, and that the discussions formed a plan that would see the US as allies.

  Of course, being this antagonistic to Russia – at the very moment the US is trying to forge ahead on peace – is in reality a scenario that eventually forces Trump’s hand to react. It also appears a deliberate effort by Europe to keep the US on a hawkish path, and to sabotage US-Russia talks in the process.

  The plan is for the UK to send soldiers to Ukraine, set them up to be shot by Russians or in a false flag attack, and then claim Article 5 of the NATO treaty requires the United States to send soldiers to bail them out.

  — Cernovich (@Cernovich) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Talking boots on the ground in the name of ‘peace’ is certainly anything but a recipe for peace.

  Europe to militarize pic.twitter.com/ef8NK8mUxy

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The leaders signing onto this escalation “peace” plan…

  European leaders hold emergency meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in London:

  🇬🇧 Starmer
  🇺🇦 Zelensky
  🇫🇷 Macron
  🇩🇪 Scholz
  🇮🇹 Meloni
  🇵🇱 Tusk
  🇨🇦 Trudeau
  🇪🇸 Sánchez
  🇩🇰 Frederiksen
  🇳🇴 Støre
  🇫🇮 Stubb
  🇸🇪 Kristersson
  🇳🇱 Schoof
  🇨🇿 Fiala
  🇷🇴 Bolojan
  🇹🇷 Fidan
  🇪🇺 VdL
  🇪🇺 Costa pic.twitter.com/EEDXe8k6By

  — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, Trump posted in his Truth Social account a quote from Gartner analyst Michael McCune, according to whom Zelensky now has “no choice but to back down and accept Trump’s terms” suggesting that Trump clearly is content with the outcome of the Friday debacle in the White House (emphasis ours).

  Now, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to back down and accept Trump’s terms. 

  But here’s the genius part—Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war.

  By negotiating a mineral deal, Trump ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would mean endangering American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.

  Trump played both sides like a master chess player. In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia. 

  And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences.

  Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone.

  Are Europe’s virtue-signaling (war-mongering) leaders unable to grasp completely that this is all part of Trump’s art of the deal to bring an end to the war.

  * * *

  You can support ZeroHedge with the purchase of a high-quality, sharp, ZeroHedge Multitool.

  

  Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

  *  *  *

  After essentially being kicked out of the White House on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky went to London where British Prime Minister Keir Starmer immediately offered a warm embrace: ‘we stand with you’ – was the message after the major public clash with President Trump and Vice President Vance in the Oval Office.

  “You have full backing from the United Kingdom and we stand with you with Ukraine for as long as it may take,” Starmer, who was also just at the White House on Thursday, said in a presser with Zelensky on Saturday.

  

  “And I hope you’ve heard some of that cheering in the street, that is the people of the United Kingdom coming out to demonstrate how much they support you, how much they support Ukraine, and our absolute determination to stand with unwavering determination,” the UK leader added.

  Zelensky is also meeting with the UK’s King Charles on Sunday. CNN and other are presenting this moment as a consolation of sorts after the “nightmare Trump meeting”.

  Currently, European leaders are meeting at Lancaster house, hosted by the UK’s Starmer, reportedly to work with Ukraine on a peace plan.

  The leaders in attendance include NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

  Starmer said Sunday before the meeting that Kiev and Europe will work together toward a plan to “stop the fighting” with Russia before presenting it to the White House.

  The British PM told BBC: “We have agreed that the UK, along with France and possibly one or two others, will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting. Then we will discuss that plan with the US.”

  The fact that these European leaders are now talking about urgently drawing up an official new peace plan is without doubt due to the pressure of the Trump presidency as well as the controversial mineral deal and Zelensky’s apparent rejection of it.

  While these leaders may still not actually be interested in peace, given many of them have urgently called for the West to keep transferring weapons to Ukraine’s military, they are at least making a show of it as an alternative approach to Washington.

  This older interview clip of Zelensky is making the rounds again after Friday’s fireworks at the White House…

  🚨🚨 Zelensky: “If the US stops giving us money, we will demand at least $250 billion from Europe”

  The Beggar strikes again! pic.twitter.com/rsXRWoDVgJ

  — JOSH DUNLAP (@JDunlap1974) February 18, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has bluntly acknowledged that the Western allies appear weaker and more divided than ever at this point, per FT:

  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has warned that fractures in the traditional transatlantic alliance will “leave us all weaker”, while suggesting that the UK and Italy can together “play an important role in bridge-building”.

  “We are all committed to the goal that we all want to achieve — which is a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” Meloni told Starmer at the start of a bilateral meeting before the summit. “It is very very important that we avoid the risk that the west divides.” 

  The Kremlin will meanwhile likely bypass engaging these European leaders altogether, in preference of continuing to deal with Trump on the cause of achieving ceasefire in Ukraine.

  Zelensky damaged himself severely in the eyes of the public. Just a fact. https://t.co/g7wd9WzJh9

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 2, 2025

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  Russian leadership also understands that Europe will ultimately fall in line based on whatever Washington finally achieves on the peace negotiations front, as has been the historic pattern, and given the US shoulders the bulk of defense funds and hardware for NATO. The US has continued to pursue bilateral talks with Moscow, yet without European or Ukrainian representatives in the room.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 16:52

• DOGE Makes '5-Bullets' Email A Weekly Task, Sparking New Turf Battle, Employee Confusion
  DOGE Makes ‘5-Bullets’ Email A Weekly Task, Sparking New Turf Battle, Employee Confusion

  After the first attempt turned into a messy turf war with uneven compliance, the Department of Government Efficiency has doubled down, issuing a second emailed directive to millions of federal employees, instructing them to reply with five bullets describing accomplishments from the previous week. Inviting even more controversy, DOGE told employees it will now be a weekly requirement. Once again, multiple federal agencies are countermanding the DOGE demand amid questions about chains of command and the productivity toll associated with a request that has an unclear purpose. 

  For many employees, the second request hit in-boxes late Friday, with a subject line that read, “What did you do last week? Part II.” Much like the previous request, it told recipients to reply with “approx. 5 bullets describing what you accomplished last week and cc your manager.” However, unlike the first go-round, this one made the task a recurring one: “Going forward, please complete the above task each week by Mondays at 11:59pmET.”

  

  As with the first DOGE directive, the second one prompted some parts of the federal government to tell their employees not to reply. That included the State Department, which reassured employees that “department leadership will continue to respond on the behalf of our workforce.” A message sent to Energy Department workers said, “Per the Secretary’s guidance, please do not respond, if you have not already done so,” the Washington Post reports. Taking a particularly unhelpful tack, the head of a VA hospital told employees it was up to them if they want to reply or not. 

  One doesn’t have to be a defender of government-as-usual to understand why a cabinet secretary or agency head– and a Trump-appointed one at that — would bristle at an outside entity giving orders to every employee in his organization. Even if it’s assumed DOGE has such authority, it would be understandably perceived by many leaders as overreach and micromanagement of employees they’re personally responsible for. Of course, the question of authority isn’t an academic one; many of the 5-bullets directives are being sent by the Office of Personnel Management, which some say lacks the power to issue such commands; the question is already being litigated.  

  All that aside, federal employees are confused about the ultimate aim of the requirement — which is affecting how much time they’re investing in it. Commenting on X and elsewhere, DOGE’s Elon Musk has suggested the goal is merely to ferret out “non-existent” or dead federal employees, calling it a “very basic pulse check” to confirm recipients have “a pulse and two neurons.” If genuine, that characterization raises the question of why that requires five bullets — particularly when you consider DOGE’s titular aim of government efficiency.

  

  Critically, unlike Musk’s spoken and social-media comments, the OPM emails don’t instruct employees to treat the task casually and invest minimal time in complying. Against the backdrop of DOGE’s absolutely laudable drive to achieve a major reduction in the size of the federal workforce, and with no clear, official explanation of what purpose the bullets serve, it’s understandable that anxious federal employees, thinking their retention may swing in the balance, would invest far more time than Musk anticipates, aiming for a level of substance and quality akin to what they’d put on a resume written to save their jobs.

  Apparently harboring their own worries about how the 5-bullet requirement may affect the fate of their budgets and organizations, some DOGE-compliant federal entities are reinforcing the notion that employees should strive to craft the sharpest, most compelling bullets possible, distributing detailed lists of tips for writing exemplary responses. ZeroHedge has obtained a copy of one such guidance sheet sent to at least one organization within the Department of Defense. Spanning more than a page, it urge employees to, for one example, find opportunities to list accomplishments that are in harmony with DOGE’s mission. 

  

  Speaking to the Washington Post, one federal employee shared her own back-of-envelope calculation of the weekly cost of the contentious DOGE exercise: 

  If 2 million federal employees each spend 15 minutes answering the emails, at an average hourly wage of $35, that will equate to 500,000 hours and $17.5 million going toward responding to the messages each week. “That’s a conservative estimate,” the employee said. “There are more than 2 million feds, and most of us spent way more than 15 minutes between trying to figure out what it meant, meetings about whether to respond or not and actually writing the email.”

  However noble DOGE’s intentions — and we’re demonstrably among the organization’s greatest enthusiasts — two reasonable questions hang overhead: Who (or what) is reading these millions and millions of bullets, and what exactly is the payoff for taxpayers from a now-weekly chore assigned to their 2 million employees? 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 16:30

• Oklahoma School District Mismanaged Millions Of Dollars, Audit Finds
  Oklahoma School District Mismanaged Millions Of Dollars, Audit Finds

  Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A recent audit of Oklahoma’s Tulsa Public Schools reported financial mismanagement, noncompliance with state law and district policy, and a lack of transparency by administrators.

  

  State Auditor and Inspector Cindy Byrd said auditors reviewed $37.7 million in Tulsa Public Schools (TPS) expenditures between 2015 and 2023 and found that $29 million was paid to consultants. Byrd said auditors found 1,450 discrepancies in 900 invoices and 90 vendor records.

  The report also alleged that TPS may have violated a state law prohibiting the teaching of critical race theory and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in Oklahoma’s public schools.

  Byrd released the audit report during a press conference on Feb. 26 in Oklahoma City. She said Gov. Kevin Stitt requested the audit in 2022 after Devin Fletcher, the system’s former chief talent manager and equity officer, resigned amid allegations of mismanagement.

  In October 2023, Fletcher pleaded guilty to one felony count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. He admitted to stealing $603,000 from TPS and the Foundation for Tulsa Schools, a nonprofit created to support TPS programs. Byrd said he was sentenced to 30 months in prison.

  Byrd alleged Fletcher only perpetuated mismanagement that TPS administrators had engaged in since at least 2018.

  “Fletcher’s misconduct was the result of a much larger problem,” Byrd said.

  She said that the TPS board shared some responsibility.

  “Had board members acted with more diligence … they would have been in a much better position to prevent Fletcher’s malfeasance and to provide the oversight that state law requires,” Byrd said.

  According to the report, TPS administrators routinely covered expenditures with foundation money. In this way, the report alleged, they avoided TPS policy 5202, which required requests for proposals, competitive bidding, and itemized invoices for any expenditure greater than $50,000.

  Using foundation money also allegedly enabled them to hide much of the mismanagement from TPS board members since the board did not routinely review foundation expenditures, according to the report.

  Auditors reported more than $25 million in contracts for which TPS had no requests for proposals. Many of the contracts were just below the $50,000 threshold. This meant no bids were required.

  These allegedly included contracts with vendors who had relationships with administrators, board members, or former school system employees.

  For example, the report states that a company named Snickelbox was hired in 2018 to provide consulting services. Between 2018 and 2022, TPS paid Snickelbox $872,588. Auditors said they determined that $329,278 of the total amount was paid fraudulently.

  According to the report, Snickelbox invoices provided no details on what TPS paid for. In addition, Snickelbox contracts did not specify what TPS could expect from the company. This lack of detail made it difficult to determine which payments were fraudulent, the report stated.

  According to the report, four other TPS employees—lead Budget Analyst Elizabeth Richardson, Chief Financial Officer Jill Hendricks, former Chief Financial Officer Nolberto Delgadillo, and Director of Materials Management Rachel Vejraska-Thomas—approved the Snickelbox payments.

  Lauren O’Mara, who owned Snickelbox, and Fletcher had attended a fellowship with The Broad Center at the Yale School of Management, according to the report. The auditors reported that TPS made payments to 16 Broad Center alumni during the audit period.

  According to the report, The Broad Center “operates as an independent nonprofit organization that identifies, develops, and supports K-12 public school system leaders who they believe are committed to ensuring that every school, classroom, and child receives the resources they need to succeed.”

  The Broad Center’s webpage stated that “Diversity, Equity, and Racial Justice are essential” to its “mission of empowering school system leaders to achieve the dual goals of excellence and equity.”

  Stitt asked Byrd to look into allegations that TPS had violated House Bill 1775, which banned critical race theory and DEI curricula from Oklahoma’s public schools. The Legislature passed the law in 2021.

  The Oklahoma State School Board Association issued guidelines for school administrators in 2022. The guidelines state that such programs “cannot be made a part of a district’s curriculum and instructional standards [or] included in any professional development provided to employees.”

  In 2023, the Oklahoma State Department of Education issued Board Order 2023-SR-0240, which required all school districts to submit a report that includes “all DEI-related expenditures made in the school district during the 2022-2023 school year.” According to the audit report, the order also covered information “that related to DEI ‘as concepts.’”

  Auditors reported that TPS administrators worked with The Broad Center at Yale to hire its graduates.

  Foundation funds were used to cover travel expenses for TPS employees to attend Broad Center programs, according to the report. Between 2018 and 2020, TPS hosted programs and meetings at Tulsa locations where Broad cohorts participated in programs that included a Child Equity Index Exercise and a DEI at Night function.

  Between 2016 and 2023, TPS paid 23 vendors more than $6.2 million for consulting services, the report stated. Prior to hiring Broad Center graduates, the district had no relationship with any of those vendors, auditors said.

  Byrd said she had turned her findings over to Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond’s office for the investigation of possible criminal activity. A spokesman for Drummond’s office said the attorney general stays in regular contact with all state agencies.

  “However, to protect the integrity of investigations and to protect the reputations of innocent people, we do not typically confirm or deny our investigations or our communications with our law enforcement partners,” communications director Phil Bacharach wrote in an email to The Epoch Times.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 16:00

• United Nations Chief Warns Of Global Funding Crisis Due To US Cuts
  United Nations Chief Warns Of Global Funding Crisis Due To US Cuts

  The Trump Administration’s agency audits and funding cuts have a wide spectrum of people in a panic, not just in the US but around the world.  For some this is not much of a revelation; it’s been known for decades that the US taxpayer backstops numerous governments and NGOs.  Without US dollars many of these organizations (and some countries) would not exist.  However, seeing the beggars all come out of the woodwork at the same time to get their cut of the pie because the money is running dry is truly something to behold.  

  Why has America become a cash cow for the entire world?  

  Call it an extension of globalism or the incremental sabotage of the US economy, the bottom line is that the US is the wealth generator for hundreds if not thousands of political and financial entities that do not have the best interests of Americans in mind.  US taxpayers are investing in their own destruction.

  Yet another example is the United Nations, which received around $18 billion total from the US annually (that’s 20% of the UN’s entire budget each year.   UN Secretary-General António Guterres has released a press statement calling for a reversal of funding cuts, warning that the organization cannot function without US dollars. 

  “These cuts impact a wide range of critical programmes,” Guterres told reporters at the UN Headquarters in New York. “The consequences will be especially devastating for vulnerable people around the world…”

  Last week the UN called the situation a “liquidity crisis”:

  “The President of the UN Field Staff Union said the Organizaton’s severe liquidity and funding shortfall has created a crisis that threatens the foundation of the staff’s work.  “UN staff — who are the backbone of this institution — are being forced to bear the brunt of these financial constraints.  Workloads are increasing beyond sustainable levels,” he said, urging Member States to meet their financial commitments fully and on time.”

  The US officially provides 20% of the UN’s budget, but this is not the end of it.  As Guterres mentions, other governments are also, coincidentally, cutting funding at the same time as the US.  In other words, these governments get money from America then give it to the UN.  It is not clear exactly how much of the UN’s operations are supported by American taxpayers, but the funding cuts promise to be quite revealing.  

  Much worse is how the UN spends that money. 

  The UN then exploits that cash to fund anti-sovereignty efforts such as mass immigration programs into the west.  They contribute to the humanitarian and national security crisis at the US southern border by distributing millions of dollars in financial assistance (including debit cards and cash vouchers) to fund migrants headed north.  The same migrants that have been crossing into the country illegally in record numbers. 

  

  Keep in mind, the US taxpayer doesn’t get to choose how their money is spent by globalist organizations.  They talk endlessly of humanitarian food aid and HIV prevention and refugee support, but they don’t talk about bankrolling mass migrations from the third world, or promoting transgender propaganda internationally, or putting millions into the anti-gun rights lobbies, or Agenda 2030 and “Net Zero” carbon controls, sometimes referred to as “Sustainable Development Goals”. These projects are where the money really goes.

  The majority of the ideals and goals put forward by the UN run contrary to US values and freedoms.  It’s an insult to American citizens to steal their money, use it to pay for project they would normally oppose, and then accuse them of causing a global panic when they decide to take their money back.  If the US government wants to support a specific humanitarian cause they can do so directly instead of using a middleman like the UN. 

  America is not obligated to support globalism.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 15:25

• The Most Difficult Question: Where Is The Economy Headed?
  The Most Difficult Question: Where Is The Economy Headed?

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  Where Is the Economy Headed?

  In hockey, they always say skate to where the puck will be, not to where it has been. We always have to do that in our business, but it seems particularly difficult right now:

  • Given the errors inherent in much of the data, it is difficult to know where we actually are, let alone where we are going.
  • Trump 2.0 is coming out of the gate with so many potential policies that it is difficult to track, let alone understand, what will get implemented and what it will do.

  Understanding those issues, let’s see what we can come up with.

  The Economy Is NOT as Good as the Current Data Suggests

  I continue to think that the jobs data is heavily overestimated, especially at the start of the year. The seasonality issues I have with the jobs data are:

  • It includes the Covid shutdown and reopening, which played havoc with seasonals, giving us too big of an adjustment early in the year.
  • It continues to be skewed towards traditional weather pattern issues, where jobs are added in the winter due to decreased construction in the Northeast.

  While I believe that the BLS is getting better at understanding how the gig economy is creating EINs at a pace that produces far fewer jobs than we used to get, I don’t think they fully account for that yet.

  While I’m not going to pound my fist on the table on inflation seasonals, I do think they face some similar issues, causing inflation at the start of the year to be overstated.

  So, my starting point, i.e., where the puck is, is not as strong as the official data suggests.

  Policies Don’t Need To Be Implemented to Impact the Economy

  Let’s start by looking at this chart. It has some flaws, which we will go through, but it illustrates the point quite well – that intended, or even potential policy, can meaningfully affect the economy.

  

  The Atlanta GDPNow forecast has been pretty good. It just plummeted.

  • The drop is almost entirely due to trade!
    • The advanced trade balance dropped to -$153 billion. That compares to -$129 in March of 2022 (the next worst print) and an average of -$64 billion going back to 2000.
  • The Atlanta GPDNow forecast does tend to overstate recent economic data, especially near the beginning of a quarter (more data comes in, etc.) and when it incorporates new data.

  Some of this is likely to reverse as it was a preemptive reaction to potential tariffs by companies across the globe.
  Having said that, how much will be undone? What does it mean for spending and the economy going forward if some things were “pulled forward” in anticipation of tariffs?

  While this looks bad for GDP, it probably made inflation tick higher (rush to purchase and get things delivered ahead of tariffs) and maybe propped up the jobs data.

  The importance of reactions to anticipated policies cannot be overstated. Companies are all skating to where the puck might be. And the longer the policies are anticipated, the more that will be done, making “undoing” it more difficult.

  Waiting for Headlines from D.C.

  We may see tariff information related to Canada and Mexico this weekend. Are they doing enough to get another extension? Coming into the weekend, Mexico extradited some prisoners to the U.S. which might help their cause. Supposedly Canada isn’t doing much about getting the seizure rate up from 1%. So, who knows? Though there was late-day chatter, primarily from Bessent, regarding a “Fortress North America.” The chatter was that Canada and Mexico might avoid tariffs with the U.S. by imposing their own tariffs on China. Interesting, and the concept of North America working well together makes a lot of sense, but that would be a pretty dramatic shift. Again, maybe all part of the “art of the deal?” More on “dealmaking” later.

  As important as those tariffs might be for markets and the global economy, they all took a backseat on Friday to the televised meeting from the Oval Office. While many were present, it really boiled down to Trump, Zelensky, and Vance. I cannot remember the last time I watched anything from the Oval Office more than once – I think I’ve viewed it, in its entirety, at least twice and I’ve seen several snippets as well.

  I cannot remember the internet being as binary and vocal about something since “what color is the dress” broke the internet about a decade ago.

  Yes, comparing the stakes from yesterday’s meeting with something as pointless as whether a dress was blue/black or white/gold may seem like I’m trivializing something, but I’m just trying to defuse the situation long enough to make it through my take. This is my take, though it comes from conversations with journalists, our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, and others plugged into the situation. These opinions are my own, but I don’t think I can discuss where the economy is headed without at least laying the groundwork for how I’m thinking about the Russia/Ukraine/U.S. peace talks.

  Maybe all of these issues will be resolved before you get to read this T-Report, but here is my take:

  • The U.S. has offered Ukraine a mineral deal as part of the peace talks. That deal has been negotiated in length and by all accounts both sides seem to think the terms of the mineral deal are acceptable (in so far that it is a mineral deal).

  So far so good. Then what the heck happened on Friday?

  • The U.S. view is that the mineral deal is sufficient to deter Putin going forward. That it sends a strong message that the U.S. and Ukraine will be linked together economically. The logic is that Putin will take that strong message into account and not interfere, making the mineral agreement effectively a security agreement.
  • The Ukrainian view is that Putin and Russia cannot be trusted, and they need a security agreement alongside the mineral agreement.
  • Which brings up the question of why this meeting occurred at all? Was it to force Zelensky to accept that all he was going to get was a mineral agreement and that he had to trust that it would be effective as a security agreement? Did Zelensky think this was his opportunity to push the U.S. into providing a security agreement? Was this meant to be more of a “photo op” ahead of the final deliberations, which went sideways? It is interesting that Zelensky chose not to have an interpreter, which might have been very useful to slow things down and allow words to be used to de-escalate. I’ve always loved the Hamilton song – “The Room Where it Happens” and apparently yesterday, the entire world was in the “Room Where it Happens.”

  In this case, I can see why both sides believe their points are valid.

  From the U.S. perspective:

  • Without a doubt, increasing economic ties and having money invested in a region will increase American presence. It will incentivize the U.S. to protect their interests. While there is not an official security agreement, which Putin might not accept anyway, this is a back door to providing a security agreement, without providing one. Subtle, but plausible.
  • While Putin has broken agreements in the past (and the U.S. did too in expanding NATO), Trump believes that Putin will live up to an agreement with Trump. There were no new incursions during Trump 1.0. We have discussed in the past that having a dialogue with adversaries is the only way to achieve our goals. Trump clearly has that dialogue with Putin.

  From the Ukrainian perspective.

  • Putin has violated agreements. The U.S. (and others) provided security guarantees when convincing Ukraine to give up their nuclear arsenal. They have been fighting for their lives and are afraid of any deal that might just give Putin time to reorganize and rebuild. They feel they need a security agreement and signing a mineral agreement without a security agreement would leave them with even fewer cards than they already hold (or don’t hold).
  • Some of the mineral deal itself seems like it is paying for what has occurred, not what is about to be. Also, the USMCA agreement was negotiated under Trump, and he hasn’t hesitated to effectively change the terms of that deal, via sanctions, when it suited him.

  Zelensky might have to come back and take what was offered, even as Europe is having emergency meeting after emergency meeting on the subject.

  Without the U.S. support, this likely ends badly for Ukraine, so they potentially come and take the deal, but I cannot believe that there won’t be longer-term ramifications for the global order. That may turn out great for the U.S. (clearly the admin believes it), or it might not, and only time will tell.

  The Art of the Deal

  One thing that became very clear, after a full-on media assault by this administration, is that:

  • Trump is a dealmaking guru (and guru might understate his skills).
  • Every deal Trump does is great, so everyone should do his deals.

  That has always been a talking point, but it noticeably ramped up after that Oval Office meeting.

  I’m not sure what it means, but the spike in volume is so noticeable that I think it is important. Maybe he is preparing the U.S. for certain deals (that might have short-term pain domestically) to win in the long run?

  Jobs

  Jobs week used to be more fun when we believed the numbers!

  Since this is February data, I’m not sure I’d bet against weak numbers, given my concerns about seasonality adjustments overstating them.

  I will point out that initial jobless claims popped up to 242k, and only a small portion of the increase can be linked to anything DOGE related. Presumably, with DOGE pushing forward, we will see jobless claims increase as people are forced out of work in the federal government.

  I remain highly concerned about the ability of many who lose their jobs to get new jobs, not because of their skills or qualifications, but because my view on the economy is that the job market is far squishier than we’ve been led to believe – especially the private sector.

  Unfortunately, we don’t get the JOLTS Quit rate until the following week. While there is a 1-month lag in the JOLTS data, I continue to view the Quit rate as “crowd sourced” data, as individuals are very good at understanding their own employment situation and their ability to attain another job. It has been mired at 2% on average since June, which is at the low-end of readings during “normal” times.

  With so much uncertainty around the direction of trade policies, I find it difficult to believe many companies are in hiring mode. Even for those that presumably are inclined to wait and see how things play out.

  Whatever the official data is, I’m looking for mediocre performance on the jobs front.

  It is too early and too unclear for companies to build out and expand based on potential policies that may or may not be implemented.

  It is not too early to be cautious and protect yourself against the possible risks of those policies.

  Policy uncertainty basically has the opposite of buy now pay later.

  The Consumer Classes

  We cannot talk about “the consumer.”

  The rich are doing well and continue to do well. Even with stocks basically unchanged on the year, and some serious crypto wealth taken off the table, the rich are doing well. We don’t need to spend a lot of time worrying about this class of consumer – which makes up a disproportionately large amount of consumer spending. So, with this group still performing, you cannot be too frightened about consumption.

  The poor continue to struggle. Inflation. Rates. Jobs. You name it, and this group continues to struggle and may face further setbacks depending on what programs are cut. While it is harsh to say, they do not drive consumer spending, so while they are struggling, we can see overall consumption remain on track, since this class of consumer is not a force in consumption (yes, it is harsh to say, but it is true).

  The middle class is where it gets interesting. While it is unclear how the Trump 2.0 policies will play out, there is clearly a path to a big rebound for the middle class. In fact, I’m eyeing a lot of what is going on in D.C. and Mar-a-Lago through the lens that Trump’s legacy might be to rebuild the middle class. The administration isn’t focused on the stock market. They aren’t focused on short-term pain. They are focused on policies that if they work out the way they are perceived they will, we will see a rise in the middle class. Not just in the number, but also in the security that those people have in their jobs. A true “middle class,” not something that sometimes feels like “just above poor.” If this is the mindset, a lot of good could happen, but that might be too far down the road for now as bumps come first and there is no certainty that every plan will play out as drawn up.

  

  Credit card delinquencies have tracked back to about “average” for the period of 2015 through 2019. Not “alarming” but worth watching. I do like to focus on credit card debt as I think changes in Fed policy have almost no impact on problems in this market. I find it difficult to believe that paying 21% instead of 22% (or the like) has any influence on the trend. A year ago, there was a buffer here that just isn’t the case right now. It helped protect us during the recession fears in a way that isn’t achievable today.

  Similarly, we had some breathing room with the amount of credit card debt outstanding.

  

  That is clearly less the case now, as we’ve broken back above trend. I’ve highlighted it in yellow since we have had inflation and an influx of people. So maybe the trend line is too low. Also, only a portion of this is likely to be middle class and represent “tapped out spending” from people who were spending. Nonetheless, we have less wiggle room if we get a downturn.

  The auto loan metrics are more concerning.

  

  Basically, we are at levels of 90+ serious delinquencies, according to this time series. That was only “achieved” during the GFC.

  While we can argue that credit card problems may be impacting consumers who don’t drive consumption (no pun intended), autos seem a bit more “upscale” than that.

  I do have an affinity for the Manheim used auto index.

  

  I’ve included it here, because I understand that it has some impact on setting “residual” values on leases, which in turn likely influenced loan underwriting. Clearly, what we saw post-Covid was largely an anomaly that is “normalizing.” Presumably much of that increase was ignored by lenders, but it is unclear to me how much. Delinquencies rising with recovery values declining isn’t good for anyone.

  All Housing is Local

  Homebuilder confidence is once again declining.

  

  From my days of trading high yield homebuilders, I have applied two filters to this chart:

  • It is always overstated! Homebuilders are typically a pretty optimistic group about their own business – probably have to be when you need to buy land potentially years in advance of development.
  • They tend to do best when people are moving to new areas. Low population density areas that people want to move to afford them the best opportunity for profits (shale and fracking were big at one time, and more recently Tennessee, Florida, etc.).

  This decline is occurring while the statistic of homes for sale nationally is below trend (you will see why I brought up the second point in a moment).

  

  While homes for sale have been creeping higher, we are still well below pre-Covid levels.

  On the other hand, Florida is now at about any level we have seen in the past decade.

  

  I was in Palm Beach last week for work (I swear it was for work), and there was no economic slowdown there. Consistent with the “rich have no problem.” But away from that there are plenty of signals that things got overbuilt. That everyone could somehow be a “landlord” and make rental money.

  I’d be shocked if homes for sale in Florida are being driven by low income. This is getting to the heart of the issue. Are people stuck with homes they cannot afford (far more likely when people buy rental properties rather than primary residences)?

  What went from a hotbed for the builders is now souring (the “national” level might be okay, but housing is and always will be a local thing).

  You see this in some other rapid growth areas (not all of them, by any means) but enough to catch my attention.

  Are the foundations (pun intended) crumbling? Or at least showing some stress fractures?

  How Far Ahead Are We Skating to the Puck

  Repeatedly in today’s report, we mention that policies could have, over time, very positive effects for the economy. Are we supposed to be skating there? Should we ignore potential bumps and go to where the puck will (or might) be further down the road?

  I think not:

  • Near-term, most policies seem to be causing disruptions and uncertainties that will hit the data and make it very difficult to move far beyond that.
  • There is no certainty that the good outcomes will materialize.
    • Things that occur in the near-term, if problematic enough and for long enough, could derail some of the opportunity.
    • Assuming everyone will move how we want them to move, it carries its own set of risks. The best players are well aware of their own limitations and think about the unexpected from their opponents. I’m not sure how well this “red team/blue team” wargame concept is being used right now.

  Expect bumpiness.

  Let’s go back to the theme of the year – messy but manageable.

  Things will be messy, but manageable. Whenever things seem too good to be true, fade them. Whenever things feel too bleak, buy them.

  That certainly applies this weekend. The Nasdaq 100 for example is down almost 3% in a month, 6% from recent highs, but flat on the year. So, while being bearish, let’s take into account that we’ve already had some substantial moves to the downside.

  Outlook – The Fed and Rates

  The market is currently pricing in a 35% chance of a cut by the end of the May meeting. I think that is low.

  Looking for 75 bps to 100 bps of cuts this year, starting with the May meeting.

  That is based on the view that the existing data will be revised down, putting us in a weaker position than is being priced in AND that the data going forward is poised to deteriorate.

  We might not need that many cuts this year if the positive consequences of policy start hitting us sooner rather than later.

  We could have deals with Canada, Mexico, Russia/Ukraine, China, and Europe in a matter of weeks. That could unleash the good far sooner (and make it far more likely that the good outcomes occur).

  We will back off the negative near-term outlook in a heartbeat if we see that.

  Until then, uncertainty, in an already fragile economy, will show up as weaker data.

  While we haven’t mentioned it, government spending was an important factor in the data for the past few years and that looks like it is getting trimmed quickly.

  The 10-year at 4.21% seems a touch rich to me, even with my more aggressive view on the Fed’s path. There are so many moving factors here, but I think a push back towards 4.4% is more likely than a gap to 4%, even with my weaker economic outlook (tariffs, deficits, and foreign buying may all weigh on longer term yields).

  Outlook – Credit and Equities

  I can’t help but start with the Russell 2000. Down 11% in 3 months! Even after Friday’s bounce, it is back to levels from September 2024. All the post-election gains have evaporated. Short interest remains high.

  We’ve been focused on China (FXI up 11% in a month and 15% YTD). Energy stocks, via XLE, have outperformed.
  I think on the equity side, as simplistic as this might sound, you want to:

  • Be overweight anything that falls into the National Security = National Production theme. Clearly the U.S. plan with Ukraine fits this narrative perfectly.
  • Be overweight things that are under-owned or shorted. I’ve liked value, but will add some small caps now, as they have taken potentially more of a drubbing than they deserve.
  • If a stock has a leveraged ETF tracking it, and that leveraged ETF continues to get inflows, be wary. Those stocks can do well with inflows into those ETFs having a nice impact, but I cannot think of a more obvious “froth meter” than single stock leveraged ETFs.

  Credit has done quite well so far. I highlighted early 2007 in one of the charts because I vaguely remember credit trading at all time tights. Making CDX IG 29 locked on a billion and being told that another firm was same priced, but locked on $10 billion! Yet a few moments later, credit was for sale.

  One of my other favorite metrics is “semi-old” new issues. Not yesterday’s or very recent issues, as even if they widen, they tend to be very liquid. But the stuff that is a couple of weeks old tends to get illiquid once the dealers don’t feel the need to support it. It might not widen, but it becomes difficult to “trade on the wire.” That tends to be an early sign of potential weakness moving forward and seems to be occurring.

  The S&P 500 and VIX tend to correlate to IG better than other equity metrics. While both recovered on Friday, they too aren’t sending a warm and fuzzy measure.

  Finally, what we have seen on the equity front (away from the Russell 2000) has been more about valuations. The equal weighted Nasdaq and S&P 500 have outperformed the market weighted versions. But if the next leg of equity weakness is less about valuations and more about concerns about the economy, then it will be more difficult for credit to avoid widening.

  Credit spreads have been boring and so far are not signaling any sort of real economic fear, but look for that to change.

  Bottom Line

  They say March’s weather is “in like a lion, out like a lamb.”  That may be true of the market situation as the past couple of weeks have not been kind to equities, but it could improve. Maybe even as soon as the end of this month.

  It is certainly possible, and we will be watching the headlines out of D.C. to try to catch that swing.

  But, for now, I suspect that we will still be riding that bucking bronco into April, when a bunch of new tariffs are scheduled to be implemented after April Fool’s Day. Maybe everything will coalesce by then, and we will have smooth sailing for all-time highs in markets and an incredibly healthy and robust economy! But I’m not there yet.

  With the speed of headlines coming out, I’m only hopeful that I don’t have to do this report again before it is edited and distributed, and I hope it is still sensical by Monday morning when I typically resend it!

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 14:50

• With US Back Turned On Ukraine, Rubio Expedites Delivery Of $4BN In Military Aid To Israel
  With US Back Turned On Ukraine, Rubio Expedites Delivery Of $4BN In Military Aid To Israel

  Zelensky got his dressing down on Friday for basically never being satisfied even after the billions in US taxpayer dollars poured into Kiev’s coffers over several years. He was accused by President Trump and VP J.D. Vance of being ungrateful and rude in the Oval Office meeting.

  As for the other country which routinely receives billion in US defense funds and foreign aid… should we expect Netanyahu to receive the same treatment? Will he be told off? No, it’s very unlikely, especially considering the new massive military package which is now being expedited by the Trump administration to Israel announced just this weekend.

  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio unveiled on Saturday that he has signed a declaration to expedite delivery of some $4 billion in military assistance to Israel.

  

  Rubio added that the Trump administration “will continue to use all available tools to fulfill America’s long-standing commitment to Israel’s security, including means to counter security threats.”

  “Rubio said he had used emergency authority to expedite the delivery of military assistance to Israel, which is now in a fragile ceasefire with U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hamas in their war in Gaza,” Reuters writes.

  Almost $12 billion in major foreign military sales has already been approved by the Trump administration since January 20, even as the White House has hailed the fragile Hamas truce and hostage handover as happening because of Trump taking office.

  While Americans have by and large turned on Zelensky, and have grown weary of the persisting Russia-Ukraine war, support for Israel among the US public remains high – and so Trump is unlikely to come under fire from his base for this massive support to Israel.

  Evangelicals, which account for a huge segment of Trump voters, are especially big supporters of Israel – and form the basis of “Christian Zionism”. Along with the Israel lobby, such as AIPAC, these form a powerful coalition of influence on Capitol Hill.

  The Trump administration has fiercely criticized the prior Biden admin for its ‘blank check’ approach to Ukraine, but the exact same can be said of long-running US policy with Israel.

  What “emergency” is happening at the moment that requires “expediting” $4 billion in military subsidies to Israel? Isn’t there supposed to be a solid, enduring ceasefire underway…? pic.twitter.com/ig7k9HSrb2

  — Michael Tracey (@mtracey) March 2, 2025

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  If heavy fighting resumes in the Gaza Strip, and the ceasefire collapses, the issue might be raised among some Congressional ranks and come under a little scrutiny – but by and large the entire US government is filled with pro-Israel hawks on both sides of the aisle.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 14:15

• UK, France, Ukraine Agree To Work On Cease-Fire Plan To Present To US
  UK, France, Ukraine Agree To Work On Cease-Fire Plan To Present To US

  Update: perhaps in response to the latest toothless European summit, which Poland’s PM summarized best as follows…

  • *TUSK REITERATES POLAND WON’T SEND ITS TROOPS TO UKRAINE
  • *TUSK: SECURITY GUARANTEES FOR UKRAINE NOT DISCUSSED IN SUMMIT

  … or in other words, once again nothing of significance was agreed upon, Donald Trump posted in his Truth Social account a quote from Gartner analyst Michael McCune, according to whom Zelensky now has “no choice but to back down and accept Trump’s terms” suggesting that Trump clearly is content with the outcome of the Friday debacle in the White House.

  

  Earlier, from Jacob Burg of the Epoch Times

  British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on March 2 that Britain, France, and Ukraine are working on a cease-fire plan to present to the United States as he prepares to host European leaders in discussions to end the Russia–Ukraine war.

  Starmer’s Sunday summit of leaders stands in contrast to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting in the White House on Friday, during which U.S. President Donald Trump scolded him for not being ready for peace and not being grateful for America’s support in his nation’s defense against Russia’s three-year-long invasion.

  

  Starmer said he’s working on restoring discussions of peace and is using Friday’s breakdown as an opportunity to re-engage with Trump, Zelenskyy, and French President Emmanuel Macron rather than “ramp up the rhetoric.”

  “We’ve now agreed that the United Kingdom, along with France and possibly one or two others, will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting, and then we’ll discuss that plan with the United States,” Starmer told the BBC, adding that he and Macron have both spoken to Trump since the latter’s meeting with Zelenskyy.

  At Sunday’s summit, European leaders will look toward shoring up the continents’ defenses in defending Ukraine, including discussions to create a European military force to send to the war-torn country to cap a cease-fire. Starmer suggested the military force would include a “coalition of the willing.”

  While he does not trust Russian President Vladimir Putin, Starmer said he trusts Trump.

  “Do I believe Donald Trump when he says he wants lasting peace? The answer to that is yes,” he said.

  Starmer added that “intense discussions” to obtain a security guarantee from the United States are one of the three components of lasting peace.

  “If there is to be a deal, if there is to be a stopping of the fighting, then that agreement has to be defended, because the worst of all outcomes is that there is a temporary pause, and then Putin comes again,” Starmer said. “That has happened in the past. I think it is a real risk, and that is why we must ensure that if there’s a deal, it is a lasting deal, not a temporary pause.”

  The summit, which will be held at Lancaster House—a 200-year-old mansion near Buckingham Palace—will also include leaders from France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, and Romania.

  Other attendees include the Turkish foreign minister, NATO secretary-general, and the presidents of the European Commission and European Council.

  Zelenskyy received support from European leaders after Friday’s contentious meeting at the White House in which a rare earths deal was abandoned and Trump told Zelenskyy to come back when he was ready for peace.

  After the Ukrainian president arrived in Britain on Saturday, Starmer embraced him.

  “As you heard from the cheers on the street outside, you have full backing across the United Kingdom,” Starmer said. “We stand with you, with Ukraine, for as long as it may take.”

  Starmer also pledged to boost military spending to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. Other European nations might follow suit.

   

  Continue reading at the Epoch Times

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 13:29

• Trump Declares Border 'Invasion' Is Over as Apprehensions Plunge To Historic Low
  Trump Declares Border ‘Invasion’ Is Over as Apprehensions Plunge To Historic Low

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  President Donald Trump on Saturday said the “invasion of our country” is over after the number of illegal immigrant apprehensions at the U.S.–Mexico border fell to a historic low in February, his first full month in office.

  

  According to newly released data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Border Patrol agents recorded just 8,326 apprehensions last month—the lowest monthly total in recorded history. By contrast, during the administration of President Joe Biden, CBP reported as many as 300,000 apprehensions of illegal border crossers in a single month.

  Trump credited his administration’s strict enforcement policies for the dramatic decline in border arrests. “The month of February, my first full month in office, had the LOWEST number of Illegal Immigrants trying to enter our Country in History – BY FAR!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

  On his first day in office, Trump signed 10 executive orders and proclamations addressing border security and the deportation of illegal immigrants. He ended “catch and release,” shut down the CBP One app used for parole exceptions, and pressured Mexico through the threat of tariffs into deploying 10,000 troops to curb drug trafficking and tighten enforcement of immigration controls.

  Trump also declared a national emergency at the border, ramped up deportations of illegal immigrants, and issued an order ending birthright citizenship.

  “Thanks to the Trump Administration Policies, the Border is CLOSED to all Illegal Immigrants,“ Trump wrote. 

  ”Anyone who tries to illegally enter the U.S.A. will face significant criminal penalties and immediate deportation.”

  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) echoed Trump’s sentiment. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem confirmed the record low in apprehensions and emphasized the administration’s firm stance against illegal immigration.

  “The world is hearing our message: do not come to our country illegally. If you do, we will find you, arrest you, and send you back,” Noem wrote in a post on social media. 

  “We’re just getting started.”

  Despite the administration’s success in reducing illegal crossings, Trump’s policies have drawn opposition. Last month, a group of Quaker congregations filed a lawsuit against DHS, accusing the agency of violating their religious freedom by allowing arrests of illegal immigrants attending religious services.

  Additionally, multiple federal judges have blocked Trump’s executive order that ended birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants, with the Trump administration vowing to appeal.

  Immigration and border security were top voter priorities during the 2024 election, rivaled only by economic concerns such as inflation.

  In addition to his day one actions on border security, Trump recently signed an executive order instructing all agencies to identify federally funded programs that provide financial assistance to illegal immigrants and to eliminate such aid.

  “With this Executive Order, President Trump is ensuring taxpayer resources are used to protect the interests of American citizens, not illegal aliens,” a White House fact sheet states.

  Also, DHS recently announced that illegal immigrants in the country must register with the federal government and that failing to do so will result in fines or imprisonment. The aim is to allow law enforcement to track and compel illegal immigrants to self-deport, while saving agency resources that would otherwise be used to carry out physical removals.

  DHS also announced recently that the number of illegal immigrant arrests in the interior of the country have jumped significantly under the Trump administration, with more than 20,000 arrests in the past month, compared to around 33,000 during President Joe Biden’s last full year in office.

  Estimates of the total illegal immigrant population in the United States vary significantly. 

  The Department of Homeland Security estimated 11 million as of January 2022, while the Center for Immigration Studies placed the figure at 12.3 million in May 2023. The Federation for American Immigration Reform provided a higher estimate of 16.8 million in June 2023.

  Trump has suggested the actual number could be as high as 21 million, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a May 2024 interview with NBC News during his tenure as a senator, speculated the total could reach up to 30 million.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/02/2025 – 13:05

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