Today’s News 3rd November 2022

• UK Gov't "War Gamed" Emergency Plans For Multi-Day Power Blackouts; Leaked Docs Reveal
  UK Gov’t “War Gamed” Emergency Plans For Multi-Day Power Blackouts; Leaked Docs Reveal

  The Guardian has obtained documents marked “official sensitive,” which show the government has “war-gamed” emergency plans for power blackouts lasting up to a week. 

  Documents are not for public consumption, warn a “reasonable worst-case scenario” power blackout would roil all segments of the economy. Transport, food, water supply, communications, and energy would grind to a halt. 

  In such a scenario, the government will provide citizens with food, water, and shelter if power blackouts last more than several days. 

  

  Earlier this week, UK’s Met Office published a three-month outlook for winter. Despite warm weather today, temperatures are expected to be colder than average as the heating season begins shortly:

  “The likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal,” the forecasts said.

  Preparing for the inevitable crisis has already begun. Whitehall officials’ secret plan, dubbed “Programme Yarrow,” has held a number of exercises with government departments and councils across the country in recent weeks to stress test collaboration efforts. 

  We first caught wind of increasing power blackout risks across the UK in early October when the British National Grid warned there might not be enough natural gas and electric imports from other parts of Europe later in the cold season. 

  “We’re heading into winter in an unprecedented situation. Even during the cold war, the Soviet Union kept the gas flowing so it’s very unpredictable,” said one senior industry source.

  The Guardian said government insiders have admitted to planning exercises and preparing for the inevitable as an energy crisis is unavoidable this winter. 

  “All governments do contingency planning for worst-case scenarios but the truth is that we are vulnerable as a country as a direct consequence of a decade of failed Conservative energy policy.

  “Banning onshore wind, slashing investment in energy efficiency, stalling nuclear and closing gas storage have led to higher bills and reliance on gas imports, leaving us more exposed to the impact of Putin’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon,” Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary, said.

  Last month, The Guardian revealed secret scripts prepared for BBC news anchors to read on air if rolling blackouts strike the country. The purpose of the talking points is to calm the public during a “major loss of power” event. 

  Only analog FM radio stations will broadcast messages to the population during a national emergency because power grid failures would cripple communication networks. 

  One source made it clear that Brits aren’t supposed to know about Programme Yarrow: 

  “The government doesn’t want any publicity on Yarrow, as they don’t want it to be seen as linked to Ukraine, energy supply and the cost of living. But we need to think about how we can help people in advance. The fact they’re talking about it now means they have a real concern it could happen.”

  The good news so far is that weather has been on the warm side across the UK for October but is set to slide from here as the heating season begins. 

  

  How many cold snaps will it take for the UK to stumble into a situation where it might have to ration power? 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/03/2022 – 02:45

• Poland Begins Construction Of Razor-Wire Barrier Along Border With Russia's Kaliningrad Amid Security Concerns
  Poland Begins Construction Of Razor-Wire Barrier Along Border With Russia’s Kaliningrad Amid Security Concerns

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  Poland has begun constructing a razor-wire fence on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad, where Moscow has a significant military presence, officials said on Nov. 2.

  

  Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak meet with service members near the frontier, as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian side of the border with Poland in an attempt to cross it, near Kuznica in Bialostocka, Poland, on Nov. 9, 2021. (Polish Prime Minister’s Office/Handout via Reuters)

  Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told reporters at a news conference that he has ordered the temporary barrier to be built immediately to ensure that Poland is secure. The barrier will measure 2.5 meters (eight feet) high and three meters (10 feet) deep along the 210-kilometer (130-mile) border.

  Błaszczak cited security concerns as the reason behind the construction at the border, which comes amid ongoing tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

  Warsaw is also concerned that the Kremlin plans to facilitate illegal border crossings by Asian and African immigrants in an effort to destabilize Europe, concerns prompted by a recent decision by Russia’s aviation authority to launch flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad.

  The border area, which is patrolled by border guards, has no physical barrier. Polish soldiers specializing in demining began carrying out the initial prep work on Nov. 2.

  The barrier is due to be completed by the end of 2023, Błaszczak said.

  He referenced the 2021 crisis during which thousands of African and Middle Eastern illegal aliens attempted to cross the border of Belarus, a close ally of Russia, into Poland. Many of those border crossers died, and Poland subsequently erected a steel wall on the Belarus border to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. That border was completed in June.

  At the time, Polish and other European Union leaders accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s government of encouraging immigrants from the Middle East to travel to Minsk and make their way into Europe.

  Belarus officials denied those claims.

  

  A member of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service stands near the border with Belarus and Poland in the Volyn region of Ukraine on Nov. 16, 2021. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)

  Poland–Russia Border ‘Stable and Calm’

  Human rights groups then accused Poland of double standards after the nation welcomed an influx of Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion while simultaneously moving to prevent Middle Eastern and North African migrants from entering via the Belarus border.

  “If you give a lift to a refugee at the Ukrainian border, you are a hero. If you do it at the Belarus border, you are a smuggler and could end up in jail for eight years,” said Natalia Gebert, founder and CEO of Dom Otwarty, or Open House, a Polish nongovernmental organization that helps refugees, according to a June report by The Associated Press.

  Kaliningrad is a semi-exclave—a portion of a country that’s geographically separated from the main part by a surrounding foreign territory—that lies on the Baltic Sea and is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania and separated from Belarus by a border corridor.

  Despite there being no barrier along the border, a spokesperson for the Polish Border Guard told Reuters that there were no illegal entries from Kaliningrad into Poland in October.

  “The Polish–Russian border is stable and calm. There has been no illegal crossing of the border,” Polish border spokesperson Anna Michalska said. “We are not only there in times of peace. We are prepared for various crisis situations, and after what happened on the Polish–Belarusian border, we are even more prepared for everything, for all of the darkest scenarios.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/03/2022 – 02:00

• Medical Board Moves To Strip Dr. Peter McCullough Of Certifications
  Medical Board Moves To Strip Dr. Peter McCullough Of Certifications

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A medical board has moved to strip top cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough of his certifications in internal medicine and cardiovascular disease, claiming that he provided misleading medical information to the public about COVID-19 vaccines.

  

  The American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) informed McCullough of the action in a recent letter.

  The board stated that McCullough’s statements questioning COVID-19 vaccination for healthy people younger than the age of 50 and pointing out that Americans have died after getting a COVID-19 vaccine triggered a review, which led to a recommendation that McCullough’s board certifications be revoked.

  The ABIM’s Credentials and Certification Committee found that McCullough had “provided false or inaccurate medical information to the public,” the letter states.

  “By casting doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines with such seemingly authoritative statements, made in various official forums and widely reported in various media, your statements pose serious concerns for patient safety,” it reads. “Moreover, they are inimical to the ethics and professionalism standards for board certification.”

  McCullough was given until Nov. 18 to appeal.

  If he appeals, the matter will be considered by a panel designated by the ABIM’s Board of Directors and at least one hearing would be held. The panel could accept the recommendation, rescind it, or impose an alternative punishment.

  McCullough told The Epoch Times in an email that he’ll appeal.

  Allegations

  In a May notice of potential disciplinary measures, the board said it had learned that McCullough made “numerous widely reported and disseminated public statements about the purported dangers of, or lack of justification for, Covid-19 vaccines.”

  As an example, the board cites McCullough’s March 10, 2021, testimony before a Texas Senate panel in which he said that people who have recovered from COVID-19 have “complete and durable immunity” and that there was no rationale for vaccinating such a person.

  McCullough also said at the time that there was “no scientific rationale” for people who are healthy and younger than 50 to receive one of the vaccines.

  In a declaration in a court case, meanwhile, McCullough said that more than 18,000 COVID-19 vaccine deaths had been submitted to the U.S.-run Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and that the number of reported deaths was far above that of all other vaccines combined.

  ABIM says the statements might violate the board’s policy on false or inaccurate medical information, which states that “providing false or inaccurate information to patients or the public is unprofessional and unethical” and could lead to sanctions.

  McCullough responded the following month, requesting the matter be dismissed and offering a point-by-point rebuttal.

  To back up his statements on COVID-19 vaccination, for instance, McCullough referenced data that shows people younger than 50 have a minuscule risk of death after contracting the illness, particularly if they don’t have serious underlying medical conditions.

  He also noted the availability of COVID-19 treatments, that the COVID-19 vaccine spike protein has been linked to problems such as blood clotting, and that the vaccines have provided poor protection against infection and no protection against transmission.

  McCullough also referenced research that found people who have natural immunity—a group excluded from the vaccines’ clinical trials—are at higher risk of side effects from the vaccines and have better protection than the vaccinated.

  He said that based on his medical opinion, drawing from his medical education, clinical experience, and review of scientific information, people who have recovered from COVID-19 “have robust and durable immunity against the severe outcomes of adjudicated COVID-19 hospitalization and death recognizing that the Omicron variant has broken through natural immunity.”

  He also said that there “is no medical necessity or clinical indication for vaccination of a COVID-19 recovered patient since they have already had the condition for which the vaccines are indicated to prevent” and that the scientific evidence doesn’t support vaccinating people younger than the age of 50.

   

  ABIM Response

  In the decision letter, ABIM said the statements on the alleged lack of benefit from COVID-19 vaccines against mortality for those younger than 50 were “not factual, scientifically grounded, or consensus driven.”

  The board based that finding on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that list more than 71,000 Americans in that population dying from COVID-19 as of Oct. 6. The board referenced no studies or other data.

  The board stated that the statements about COVID-19 vaccine deaths also weren’t factual because the CDC says COVID-19 vaccine benefits outweigh the risks. According to the CDC, serious side effects from the vaccines include heart inflammation, blood clotting, and severe allergic shock. All three can cause death.

  “Nothing in your declaration submitted in response to the Notice, or in the materials submitted to ABIM on your behalf, compels a different conclusion,” ABIM wrote.

  The board’s only other citation was to the World Health Organization, which stated in March that billions of people around the world “have been safely vaccinated against COVID-19” and that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines “have been rigorously assessed for safety and clinical trials have shown that they provide a long-lasting immune response.”

  The latter statement is false; the protection against both infection and severe disease quickly drops, according to recent CDC data. Some studies have found negative effectiveness within months. The waning effectiveness prompted the CDC to change its definition of a vaccine.

  McCullough said he’s concerned that ABIM will “continue to cherry-pick data and claim they have ownership over the ‘truth’ when in reality we are simply discussing data from a rapidly evolving pandemic.”

  “ABIM should be only concerned with my clinical track record … which is perfect,” he said. “Board scores and clinical practice are of the highest quality.”

  Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who invited McCullough to Capitol Hill to testify, said the doctor “has dedicated his life to saving others” and called for ABIM to reverse its decision.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 23:30

• Judge Stops Arizona "Mule Watchers" From Ballot Box Surveillance Tactics
  Judge Stops Arizona “Mule Watchers” From Ballot Box Surveillance Tactics

  A federal judge in Arizona has put the brakes on various tactics used by self-described “mule watchers” – who have been surveilling ballot boxes by taking photos and videos and posting information online, often while wearing body armor and weapons.

  

  The group, Clean Elections USA, says it wants to prevent voter fraud by staking out ballot boxes to catch “mules” – people who illegally catch multiple ballots.

  In a lawsuit against the “Mule Watchers” – named after the 2022 film “2,000 Mules” which claimed evidence of systematic election fraud – a group called the League of Women Voters said the election integrity group’s actions amounted to “time-tested methods of voter intimidation.”

  Prior to a Tuesday hearing on the matter, the mule watchers agreed to cease some activities, such as open-carrying firearms or wearing visible body armor within 250 feet of ballot boxes, the NY Times reports.

  Judge Michael T. Liburdi agreed with the League, issuing a temporary restraining order which prohibits the mule watchers “and other persons in active concert or participation with” from taking photos or videos of voters, or spreading information about voters online – as well as “making false statements” about the state’s statutes regarding early voting.

  “It is imperative we balance the defendants’ right to engage in First Amendment-protected activity with the plaintiffs’ right to act without intimidation or harassment,” Liburdi said following a long hearing in Phoenix, which included testimony from a man who said he was harassed at a ballot box. He went on to say Clean Elections founder Melody Jennings went on Steve Bannon’s podcast to say they had ‘caught a mule.’

  According to the man, who testified without revealing his name publicly for fear of harassment, eight to 10 people filmed the couple and told them they were “hunting mules.” Images of him and his car were posted online and Ms. Jennings subsequently appeared on the podcast of Stephen K. Bannon, the former Trump adviser, saying they had caught a mule and “blasted it out viral.”

  Judge Liburdi called his experience particularly compelling, and noted that it went well beyond testimony from last week in a parallel case against Clean Elections USA. In that lawsuit, brought by the Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and Voto Latino, the judge declined to enjoin Clean Elections USA’s activities, saying he had not seen any evidence that real harm had befallen any voters. That ruling is being appealed in the Ninth Circuit. -NYT

  Liburdi also called out Jennings for incorrectly claiming that only spouses could return ballots on behalf of Arizona voters, when in fact housemates and caregivers may do so as well.

  “This does not prohibit Miss Jennings from correctly stating what the law is,” said the judge, who said he would be drafting a preliminary injunction against Clean Elections USA over the next few days. “I just have a problem with her stating it incorrectly in a way that is intimidating or coercive to voting behavior.”

  A lawyer for Clean Elections USA and Ms. Jennings, Alexander Kolodin, said he would most likely appeal the ruling – arguing that restrictions on photography or online posting and discussing AZ voting laws infringed on free speech.

  “It seems like our clients are on trial for the entire state or anybody who wants to participate in ballot box monitoring or even share their views,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 23:10

• US Vows To Never Accept North Korea As A Nuclear Weapons State
  US Vows To Never Accept North Korea As A Nuclear Weapons State

  Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Will Porter via The Libertarian Institute,

  Washington insists on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and will never accept Pyongyang as a nuclear weapons state, the State Department said. The US also repeated warnings that North Korea would soon test a nuclear weapon. 

  Asked if the United States would “eventually recognize North Korea as a nuclear state” during a Monday presser, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters “That is not our policy. I do not foresee that ever becoming our policy.”

  “The complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has been our objective since the conclusion of our DPRK policy review last year,” Price continued. “That has not changed. I don’t foresee that changing going forward.”

  

  Across several administrations, Washington has ordered Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons time and again since the country detonated its first warhead in 2006. After more than a decade of fruitless demands, then-President Donald Trump made diplomatic headway following multiple rounds of negotiations in 2018, with North Korea agreeing to a pause on missile and nuclear tests in exchange for a similar moratorium on US-South Korean war games. 

  However, that deal was upended just one year later, after Trump resumed demands for complete denuclearization, driving North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un to abandon the talks.

  In September, Kim signed a new decree codifying North Korea’s nuclear weapons doctrine, declaring it would not give up its arsenal unless the rest of the world did the same, while also urging the United States to end its aggressive policies.

  Though Washington claims it desires a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, it has repeatedly vowed to defend South Korea and Japan with its own atomic arsenal, keeping large swaths of the region under the US ‘nuclear umbrella.’ Under those conditions, Pyongyang has been unwilling to entertain talks with the Joe Biden administration, which has also continued – and in some cases escalated – provocative joint military drills with Seoul.

  The latest round of war games kicked off this week, seeing American and South Korean warplanes take part in their largest-ever aerial drills, following several major joint exercises in the weeks prior, some also involving Tokyo.

  Amid the escalating military activity, Pyongyang has carried out a record number of weapons tests in 2022, including one drill involving preparations to deploy a tactical nuclear missile. While Price warned that North Korea’s next step could be to test a nuclear weapon, Western officials have repeated that claim for several months and no test has materialized.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 22:50

• "Mattress Mack" Bet $10 Million On Astros To Win World Series
  “Mattress Mack” Bet $10 Million On Astros To Win World Series

  A Houston businessman has placed a total of $10 million in bets on the Astros to win the World Series. He says his wagers carry an average payout of 7.5-to-1, which means a Houston championship would bring him $75 million — if the Astros can overcome their current deficit to the upstart Philadelphia Phillies. 

  That would be the largest haul in sports betting history, according to the Houston Chronicle. 

  Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, the 71-year-old owner of Gallery Furniture in Houston, is famed for making enormous sports bets that hedge his sports-linked furniture promotions. This year’s gimmick: 

  “When you purchase a Tempur-Pedic, Stearns & Foster or Sealy mattress sleep set priced at $3,000 or more, and if the Houston Astros win it all in the 2022 final championship series, your purchase is FREE!”

  While there’s only upside for his customers, McIngvale could see $10 million of his estimated $300 million net worth vanish. Then again, he reportedly won $15 million betting on the Kansas Jayhawks to win the NCAA men’s basketball tournament earlier this year, so he may well consider this Astros bet as using “house money.” 

  “Winning the bet is very important, but more importantly, winning the bets allows us to give money back to all of our customers who bought about $75 million worth of furniture,” McIngvale tells CNBC.

  In Tuesday night’s Game 3 in front of a Philadelphia crowd, the Astros were positively pummeled by the Phillies, 7-0. The win put the Phillies up 2 games to 1 in the best-of-seven series, with the next two games played in Philadelphia Wednesday and Thursday (8:03 pm ET on Fox.) 

  McIngvale has been a huge backer of the Astros, even after the team’s reputation was reputation forever stained by a 2017-18 cheating scandal in which video cameras were used to steal opposing catchers’ signals, and the banging of trash cans — or silence — was used to tell Astros batters what pitch to expect.

  

  This week, he’s on the road to support his team. Ahead of Tuesday’s game, he enjoyed a warm welcome from Phillies fans who spotted the iconic fan and sports bettor:

  Now I know why they call it the City of Brotherly Love. These @Phillies fans couldn’t be nicer. Our @astros are still going to win tonight!#levelup #AstrosVsPhillies pic.twitter.com/1DSpV8su2X

  — @MattressMack (@MattressMack) October 31, 2022

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  After the lopsided Astros loss, things weren’t so pretty: 

  Houston businessman Jim McIngvale, known as Mattress Mack, appears to be seen in a verbal altercation with Phillies fans following the Astros loss on Tuesday eveningpic.twitter.com/8vf0D6T8gu

  — YouWager.lv (@YouWager_FF) November 2, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 22:30

• It Was The Worst Final 90 Minutes To A Fed Day In History, As JPM Warns "Squeeze Has Been Squoze"
  It Was The Worst Final 90 Minutes To A Fed Day In History, As JPM Warns “Squeeze Has Been Squoze”

  It will live in the annals of market infamy as the day the Fed rugpulled the market, when first a very dovish statement sparked a frenzied buying spree, only to be followed by a blistering, hawkish assault on the bulls during Powell’s press conference, leading to risk freefall, and the worst final 90 minutes of a Fed day in history, according to Bespoke.

  

  In his EOD wrap, Goldman tradaer John Flood agrees that today was a Dr Jekyll/Mr Hyde kinda day, when the Fed statement, ostensibly written by the dovish Lael Brainard, sparked a risk-on buying frenzy, only to crater when Powell said it was not only premature to think about pausing rates, but said that “incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected” suggesting that the dots will be revised materially up in December.

  75bps it is (for the 4th consecutive meeting). Table now set for a potential pull back to 50bps in Dec (market was already pricing this in coming into today). Official 2pm statement was indeed dovish: The Fed said it will consider existing tightening steps, the lagged effect of policy, and “economic and financial developments” (all dovish phrases).

  However, during the presser Powell was quite hawkish: “VERY PREMATURE TO THINK ABOUT PAUSING RATE HIKES” was the line that really stood out to me. After this comment we saw Macro HFs press shorts and L/Os outright cxl bids in singles that they had layered lower in the mkt. We had steady L/O supply in supercap tech all session (again). Our U.S. equities franchise ended with -449bps sell skew vs 30d avg of -135bp sell skew. Growth factor -$838mm notional sell skew which is most dramatic since 8/22/22 and in 79th percentile vs previous 52 weeks.

  As the selling accelerated, all support levels were taken out:

  S&P 50dma of 3822 didn’t provide any support. CTAs and Corporates can’t prop this tape up on their own. Lower for longer now when it comes to US stocks post today’s developments.

  For Flood’s downbeat conclusion to today’s market action, he uses Jpow’s own summation of today’s message:

  “Okay. So I would also say it’s premature to discuss pausing. It’s not something that we’re thinking about. That’s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. The last thing I’ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. I control those messages. That’s my job.”

  The pivotal moment in #Fed press conference:

  When (incorrectly) told the market had reacted positively, Jerome Powell seems frustrated and lists ONLY reasons why this is the wrong interpretation.

  Very telling for #stocks.$QQQ $SPY #macro #inflation pic.twitter.com/Vb9nhuskV7

  — Andy West, PhD (@andycwest) November 2, 2022

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  JPMorgan’s Andrew Tyler agreed with Goldman, saying that – to use the parlance of the apes – the squeeze has been squoze.

  Ron Adler sums up the Equity view, “There hasn’t been a real shift in the cadence or complexion of our flows. We’ve seen some faster $ players look to sell, but I wouldn’t say there’s a heightened sense of urgency. As noted earlier, buyers were buying this am on the hope that we would rally, knowing they had more stock lower to buy; they were set up to buy on weakness (which they are doing ~3800), not to chase. I’ll leave the parsing through Powell’s comments to others, but my simple view -> those looking for immediate gratification should continue to buckle up (this is going to take a while), and while the rate of increase will slow, Terminal Rate isn’t ready to go lower yet, and probably trends higher. The most recent squeeze has probably been appropriately squeezed at this point.

  In retrospect, everything Powell said was with the benefit of solid payrolls numbers backing him. Let’s see how fast his enthusiasm to crush inflation taper, so to speak, once we get a -100,000 NFP print, which judging by what is happening in Silicon Valley, may be as soon as next month, especially since the BLS “seasonal adjustments” team will no longer have Biden propaganda henchmen breathing down their neck after next week’s midterms avalanche.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 22:15

• RCP Now Projects 54 GOP Senate Seats As New Hampshire Leaning Red
  RCP Now Projects 54 GOP Senate Seats As New Hampshire Leaning Red

  It looks like “Red Wave” in the the 2022 midterm may crest even higher, as the New Hampshire senate race is now tilting toward the GOP in what would be another flip of a currently Democratic seat. 

  A multi-week narrowing of a 9-point lead held by incumbent Maggie Hassan has culminated in a brand new St. Anselm College poll that puts Republican challenger Don Bolduc up by a percentage point. That’s within the poll’s 2.5% margin of error — but who knows the extent to which, like other polls, it understates GOP strength.   

  

  Chalk up the shift to Bolduc winning over more independents, who comprise about 40% of the electorate:

  “Hassan’s lead among undeclared voters has evaporated,” reports St. Anselm’s pollsters. “After leading by 8 points (49%-41%) among undeclareds in September, Hassan is now tied with Bolduc at 45%.” 

  Bolduc’s favorability rating has risen from 41% to 46%, putting him just ahead of Hassan, whose favorability has sagged. Asked about Bolduc’s surge on Tuesday, Hassan said, “We’ve always known it would be a very, very tight race.”

  Hassan, a former New Hampshire state legislator and governor, is in her first term in the US Senate. Bolduc is a retired US Army brigadier general who spent most of his career in Special Forces, surviving both a helicopter crash and a 2,000-pound bomb in a friendly fire incident. He has acknowledged having coped with post-traumatic stress disorder. 

   

  According to The Hill, Bolduc had struggled to convince Republicans to coalesce around his candidacy, as he’d faced controversy over previously claiming that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. As he’s backed away from that rhetoric, his fortunes have risen, putting him on the threshold of victory. 

  On Monday, Bolduc received Trump’s endorsement via the former president’s account on his Truth Social platform. Trump couldn’t resist including a scolding of his endorsee: 

  “General Don Bolduc has run a great campaign to be the U.S. Senator from the beautiful State of New Hampshire. He was a strong and proud ‘Election Denier,’ a big reason that he won the Nomination, but he then disavowed.” 

  Because of the swing in the New Hampshire race, RealClear Politics is now projecting that Republicans will control 54 seats in January, holding on to all their current seats while flipping seats in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada. 

  

  As has been the case with Republican challenger Blake Masters in the Arizona Senate race, national GOP organizations dialed back their spending on the New Hampshire race when Bolduc was trailing by a significant margin, only for Bolduc to battle back into contention anyway. He’s done so while emphasizing energy policy and southern border security. 

  Bolduc has opposed Washington’s relentless infusion of weapons and billions of dollars into Ukraine without any accompanying pursuit of diplomacy.

  “Where’s the rest of the strategy? How are we going to get these guys to the table to talk about peace?” he asked in August. “We’re not the World Bank. We’re not the Bank of Ukraine. We’re not the bank of anybody. We’re not the world police.” 

  Former Democrat and fellow veteran Tulsi Gabbard has campaigned for Bolduc, and recently penned an endorsement op-ed at Fox News: 

  “Having both seen the cost of war firsthand, we understand the importance of peace, and how essential and urgent it is that we stop spending taxpayer dollars to escalate the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, walk us back from the brink of nuclear war, and support a negotiated end to this disastrous war.”

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 21:50

• The Lukoil Loophole: How Russian Oil Sidesteps Sanctions To End Up In The US
  The Lukoil Loophole: How Russian Oil Sidesteps Sanctions To End Up In The US

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MIshTalk.com,

  I describe the roundtrip process in which Russian oil refined in Italy makes its way to to the US. It’s a real hoot…

  

  Image composite from WSJ video below 

  The Wall Street Journal has an interesting video that describes How Russian Crude Avoids Sanctions and Ends Up in the US.

  With an upfront ad, that is a free WSJ video link.

  The Lukoil Connection

  

  Image composite from WSJ video

  Sanction Avoidance Process 

  • US sanctions are on crude oil, not refined products.

  • Lukoil, Russia’s second largest oil and gas company was not sanctioned by the US.

  • Lukoil’s refinery in Sicily is the second largest in Italy and fifth largest in Europe.

  • A Lukoil refinery in Italy once processed crude from multiple countries. Now it inputs are 93 percent from Russia. 

  • After refining, the country of origin is Italy, not Russia. This is due to longstanding practice of changing the country of origin to where oil is refined. 

  • The refined product then makes its way Exxon and Lukoil plants in New Jersey and Texas. 

  • Lukoil still has a gas station presence in the US and it distributes products to eleven states. 

  Lukoil Stations in 11 US States

  

  Image composite from WSJ video

  Note: Most of the 230 Lukoil gas stations in the US are owned by individual American franchisees, not the oil giant itself. 

  Understanding the Process

  • The US has sanction exclusions for oil “substantially transformed into a foreign-made product.”

  • US refiners cannot process Russian crude, but Italian refiners can, then distribute the product here. 

  • In return, US can send its refined products to the EU, completing the round trip! 

  Lukoil is 6th largest refiner in Europe. It went from processing 30% Russian oil to 93%. That’s a pretty big sieve even if amounts to US are small.

  Conveniently timed for the US election, European bans on Lukoil do not come into play until December 5. 

  Unless the EU backs down, this could lead to another surge in the price of gasoline in December.

  Meanwhile, In eleven US states, people are filling up their tanks in part with Russian oil products via the above convoluted means.

  The US Treasury department refused to comment on this process. Gee, I wonder why.

  Biden says this is all Putin’s fault, while traipsing the globe begging Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for more oil. 

  Finally, after Biden told both OPEC and the US oil industry of its intent to kill the industry, the president now threatens both the US and Saudi produces with tax hikes and unspecified consequences.

  For discussion, please see Biden Threatens Saudi Arabia With Unspecified Consequences for Slashing Oil Production

  Consequences

  “There will be consequences,” says president Biden. “It’s time to rethink our relationship with Saudi Arabia.”

  Yeah, there will be consequences. 

  The one on the immediate horizon is an election blowout on Tuesday, November 8.

  *  *  *

  Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 21:30

• Russia Preparing To Move 70,000 Civilians From Kherson Region
  Russia Preparing To Move 70,000 Civilians From Kherson Region

  Russia is preparing to order a “compulsory” transfer of tens of thousands of residents in the Kherson region as the fight for the south heats up. This could involve as many as 70,000 civilians in what would mark a large-scale Russian withdrawal from the occupied Ukrainian city. 

  Citing Russian officials, The Wall Street Journal reports that “starting Sunday they would begin relocating residents from the Kakhovsky district on the east bank of the Dnipro River due to what they claim is the possibility of a Ukrainian attack on a strategic dam nearby.” Already evacuations have been ongoing for weeks from the city as fighting and heavy shelling encroach. 

  

  And the pro-Russian governor of Kherson Volodymyr Saldo confirmed preparations for a mandated evacuation ahead of advancing Ukrainian forces, which a Russian decree said will be “in a compulsory manner.” Russian officials say this is necessary because Ukraine forces are plotting a “massive missile strike on the Kakhovka hydroelectric station” to flood Kherson.

  Ukraine has denied these plans of course, and has in turn accused the Russian side of essentially using the large civilian transfer as one big “human shield”:

  “They want to create the impression that this is a civilian evacuation. Surrounded by civilians they understand that they have a degree of safety,” said a spokeswoman for the southern command of Ukraine’s armed forces.

  They say Russian military vehicles are intentionally mixing with civilian convoys as they exit the region.

  Meanwhile, Ukrainian media sources are touting that the national armed forces have conducted at least 100 firing missions on Wednesday, conducted by artillery and missile units.

  “The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck an extremely successful blow on the occupiers in Kherson, hitting the air defense systems at Spartak stadium, which were used to attack Mykolaiv,” a statement from an official with Ukraine’s Kherson Regional Council said on Facebook. 

  

  A report this week in the Associated Press said that many among the recently mobilized Russian recruits have been sent to Kherson front lines, despite official denials from the Kremlin.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 21:10

• North America's Reshoring Of The Global Supply Chain
  North America’s Reshoring Of The Global Supply Chain

  By John Gallagher of FreightWaves

  With manufacturing and labor markets on the decline with North America’s traditional partners in Asia — and with trade with Russia collapsing — North America is in prime position to take advantage by reshoring global sourcing.

  “For the most part we can keep this in America — or at least North America,” said geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan during the opening keynote Monday at FreightWaves’ F3: Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

  

  Zeihan is the author of the recently published book “The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.”

  He said one of the keys to boosting U.S. trade will be reforming the Jones Act, a century-old trade protection law that Zeihan contends boosts transport costs.

  “This would help the country bring manufacturing back on the water in a very big way,” he said. “Mexico is now ahead of Canada from a labor productivity measure, which means that Mexico now needs a low-wage partner. Colombia and Cuba are the obvious candidates. It’s a much simpler system, one that is reliant on things close to home.

  “When you want to do a trade deal with Russia or China, it’s a pain. But calling on a country like Colombia, which is kind of desperate and wants to be part of the club, it’s a much easier process and we don’t need to do things at scale to the same degree. A small container ship is fine, you don’t need that massive Triple E container ship.”

  Some of the trends that many in the transportation industry are expecting to happen quickly — such as the transition to electric vehicles — could be stuck in neutral for a while, Zeihan said.

  In fact, he said, “the [EV] transition is not going to happen — that’s the short version. Russia is one of the top three suppliers of nickel, cobalt and aluminum — and all of those are going to zero” as far as U.S. imports.

  

  “So we’re going to be in the position, very soon, where we will have to decide which parts of the green transition are worth doing because we will not have the materials. If you’re looking at this from a carbon production transition period, a wind tower you put up in a place with wind, that has an immediate carbon impact.

  “But an EV does not, because it draws from the grid in its current form, and for the most part the processing facilities required to build the EVs in the first place are incredibly carbon intensive. And most vehicles running on most grids are going to take in excess of a decade to pay back the carbon debt.”

  And in a world where globalization is shifting — or ending — what does that mean for inflation?

  “Every disinflationary trend of the last 75 years has flipped, and every inflationary trend is back at the same time. We are looking at 9% to 15% inflation for at least the next five years — and that’s independent of anything the Fed does,” he said.

  “If at the end of the five-year period we’ve succeeded in building out the industrial plant, we go back to a much tamer system that will be lower for longer, because the supply chains will be local, the processing will be local and we’ll be following our own labor metrics, which will have evolved because we will have had to do a lot more with artificial intelligence and automation than we currently have, especially as we bring in electronics manufacturing — we will have a choice.

  “But if we fail to do that, then the 9% to 15% inflation continues and there are product shortages. From my standpoint, it’s a really clear path. The alternative is to go through the worst of it and get none of the benefits.”

  For companies looking to survive in the new North American supply chain, “anything that makes you more modular and more capable and allows you to adapt more quickly is something I think that can provide an outsized advantage,” Zeihan said.

  “We’re going to have fewer supply chain steps closer to home, and the competitive nature to that is going to be very different from just waiting for things to show up at the dock. We’re going to have the need to do everything that is currently done in Asia but in fewer steps and right in our own world.

  “That’s not just an issue of a capacity increase. That’s an awareness of what the cargo is on a micro level and in each container so that anyone can go to anything at any time and find out the best way to route within the system — that’s going to require a lot more information technology.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 20:50

• Elon Musk To Fire Half Of Twitter On Friday
  Elon Musk To Fire Half Of Twitter On Friday

  Taking a page out of Thanos’ playbook (or is that Zorg), in two days Elon Musk will finally do what he has repeatedly warned he would do: unleash mass layoffs at the company he just acquired.

  According to Bloomberg, the world’s richest man will eliminate 3,700 jobs at Twitter – roughly half of the company’s entire workforce – in a bid to drive down costs following his $44 billion acquisition; Musk will inform affected staffers Friday, said the Bloomberg sources. Oh, and all those masked snowflakes who previously raged against the previous management’s “draconian” demand to come back to the office, you’re out of luck too: Musk intends to reverse the company’s existing work-from-anywhere policy asking what few employees remain to report to offices.

  Musk and a team of advisers have been weighing a range of scenarios for job cuts and other policy changes at San Francisco-based Twitter, the people said, adding that the terms of the headcount reduction could still change. In one scenario being considered, laid off workers will be offered 60 days’ worth of severance pay, two of the people said.

  With the “liberal and tolerant” left putting Musk under the financial deplatforming squeeze, as various woke advertisers are pressured by vocal ultra-left radicals to drop Twitter unless the social media platform is fully MSNBC’ed…

  Advertisers should support:

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … which will leave advertisers showing their ads to a handful of socialist-preapproved media outlets catering to those whose entire income comes from the government, who pay zero taxes, and can’t really afford to buy anything, Musk is under pressure to find ways to slash costs of a business for which he overpaid.

  To be sure, the mass exodus won’t come as a surprise: Twitter employees have been bracing for layoffs ever since Musk took over last Thursday and fired the top executive team, including CEO Parag Agrawal and top censor, Vijaya Gadde. Over the weekend, a few employees with director and vice president jobs were cut, while other leaders were asked to make lists of employees on their teams who can be cut, Bloomberg reported, adding that senior personnel on the product teams were asked to target a 50% reduction in headcount. Engineers and director-level staff from Tesla reviewed the lists.

  Layoff lists were drawn up and ranked based on individuals’ contributions to Twitter’s code during their time at the company. The assessment was made by both Tesla personnel and Twitter managers.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 20:32

• Portland Facing Homelessness 'Catastrophe': Mayor
  Portland Facing Homelessness ‘Catastrophe’: Mayor

  Authored by Scottie Barnes via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  With the homelessness crisis cited among their top concerns, Oregon voters are taking note of Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler’s declaration of a “humanitarian catastrophe” in the state’s largest city.

  

  Oregon has among the highest homeless populations in the nation per capita. According to DHM Research, 9 of 10 voters statewide identify homelessness as a “very big problem” as Election Day draws near.

  In the Portland metropolitan area alone, an estimated 6,000 people are experiencing homelessness, according to Multnomah County’s 2022 point-in-time count, an annual census of the unhoused.

  “The magnitude and the depth of the homeless crisis in our city is nothing short of a humanitarian catastrophe,” Wheeler said in an Oct. 26 city council meeting.

  Portland Commissioner Dan Ryan described homelessness as the city’s “No. 1 problem” and painted a bleak picture of its impact during the meeting

  “It is inhumane to watch the homeless suffer,” Ryan said. “It is also irresponsible to not to address the safety concerns of neighbors and business owners who are deeply impacted by the consequences of untreated behavioral and mental health issues and drug addiction.”

  He described disturbing trends in the City of Roses.

  “Declining enrollment in Portland Public Schools means families are moving away,” Ryan explained.

  Population growth is flat.

  “People are not choosing Portland as their home as often as they used to,” Ryan said.

  “Portlanders report they don’t feel safe allowing their children to access our parks. Elders don’t feel safe strolling along the riverfront or simply walking to the local grocery store.”

  “Portland businesses with a long history in the city have closed because their employees don’t feel safe doing their jobs, walking to lunch, or commuting on public transportation.”

  “Our county, state, and region cannot move forward without addressing this issue.”

  At the meeting, Wheeler and Ryan proposed five “resolutions” to try to reduce homelessness.

  The first involves building 20,000 housing units by 2023. The city currently has a five-year waitlist for people to get into affordable housing.

  A proposed workforce program aims to “find non-standard” paid work for unhoused people—work that better fits their needs so that they can sustain those jobs.

  Their plan will also ban unsanctioned camping, but increase access to other camping options with mental health and sanitary services. Reports indicate that the first camp would not open for 18 months.

  Another resolution entails working with the local district attorney to create a “diversion program” that gives people who are homeless and cited for low-level offenses “more opportunity to address their legal issues and get them resolved.”

  Wheeler says the city will rework its budget to prioritize affordable housing and connect the homeless with mental health, sanitary, and substance abuse recovery services.

  The cost to taxpayers was not discussed.

  The council will work to refine the proposals before voting on them on Nov. 3.

  Wheeler acknowledged that previous government “solutions” have sometimes exacerbated the problem.

  Just last month, a group of Portlanders filed suit against the city, claiming that tents were blocking the sidewalks in violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Weeks later, the lawyers for the suit learned that Multnomah County’s Joint Office of Homeless Services had distributed 6,550 tents and 27,000 tarps to the homeless in 2021.

  The lawyers argued those very same tents could be the ones blocking the sidewalks.

  “The city has been trying to address ADA issues and the recent lawsuit makes it clear that we have not done enough,” Wheeler said. “These are important concerns and ones that we need to address as a city.”

  In May, Wheeler banned camping on the sides of “high-crash” roadways after learning that 19 of 27 pedestrians killed by cars in Portland last year were homeless. People in at least 10 encampments were given 72 hours to leave.

  “Nearly 800 unsanctioned encampments spread out over the 146 square miles of the City of Portland,” Wheeler said. “Something needs to change.“

  But many Portlanders have lost faith in city leaders.

  In a recent poll conducted by The Oregonian, nearly 75 percent of Portland voters said the city is “on the wrong track.”

  And 81 percent believe the 2020 George Floyd protests and more than 100 days of unchecked riots, even as Wheeler announced the defunding of police by $12 million, harmed the city.

  Still, Wheeler called on other Oregon officials to join him and “declare a statewide emergency.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 20:10

• China's 'iPhone City' Locks Down As Workers Flee Factory Amid Zero Covid Chaos
  China’s ‘iPhone City’ Locks Down As Workers Flee Factory Amid Zero Covid Chaos

  A week-long lockdown was implemented around the world’s largest iPhone factory in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou. Beijing is ramping up its zero Covid policy despite internet rumors suggesting otherwise, only to be proven false this morning.

  Zhengzhou officials posted a statement on WeChat stating that the lockdown in the metro area would last through November 9. 

  It [memo on WeChat] ordered people and vehicles off the streets except for medical or other essential reasons, a prohibition that threatens to cut off the flow of additional workers and components needed to rev up production ahead of the holiday-season crush. —Bloomberg

  The lockdown could significantly impact Foxconn’s largest iPhone factory, producing four of five of Apple’s latest handsets. 

  

  Last month, Foxconn closed off the factory of 200,000 employees to the outside world due to an outbreak of infections, embracing a “closed loop” system, where workers live on campus and are prohibited from physical contact with the outside world – including family members.

  

  As a result of the lockdowns, cafeterias at the manufacturing site were shut down, and workers on assembly lines were given “meal boxes.” Some employees have remained locked down in their dormitories and were given only instant noodles. Unrest is rising at the factory as workers are fed up with cramped living and working conditions. 

  There have also been reports of workers escaping from the factory. WaPo interviewed one worker named “Zhuo,” 19, who was among hundreds of others that busted out. 

  On Friday, Zhuo decided to make a run for it. He climbed a seven-foot wall, ducked under a fence through a hole dug out by workers who fled before him and walked almost 15 miles before getting a ride from a passerby.

  “There were around 200 of us that evening. It was like a prison break movie,” Zhuo said by phone from a quarantine hotel near his home in Henan province. Zhuo did not give his full name out of security concerns.

  The lockdown of the surrounding area and chaos in and around the factory comes as Apple just launched the iPhone 14. 

  Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam said the factory is responsible for 80% of iPhone 14 production and 85% of iPhone 14 Pro production. 

  There have been no reports of disruptions yet, and the factory is supposedly well-supplied with components to operate “for a while,” according to Bloomberg. 

  No wonder a growing number of US companies with manufacturing facilities in China are looking to rejigger supply chains elsewhere. What a mess China has become under zero Covid policies. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 19:50

• No, There Will Not Be Any "Pandemic Amnesty"
  No, There Will Not Be Any “Pandemic Amnesty”

  Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

  Nothing is Forgotten, Nothing Will Be Forgiven.

  On the very first day of this year I wrote that the pandemic was over and that only the most brainwashed true believers would cling to the absurd narratives that enabled it. Since then, all of it has been exposed to be falsehoods, cluelessness and lies:

  • Vaccines were never tested or proven to stop transmission.

  • The fatality rate was around 0.005%

  • Ivermectin worked

  • Masks don’t

  • Lockdowns did more damage than good

  …and the final straws for the credibility of all involved:

  • This thing came out of a lab, and

  • “Safe and effective” turned into “sudden and unexpected”

  Innumerable careers, reputations and lives have been destroyed in order to enforce a completely debunked narrative as truth. The mainstream media, Big Tech, governments at all levels, neo-liberal glee clubs like the WEF, all coordinated to gaslight the entire population of the world that we were facing existential annihilation, and would have to henceforth trade in our civil rights to these authorities to escape it.

  The economic damage is only now beginning to be felt in runaway inflation with central banks powerless to contain it, at risk of destroying what’s left of the economy.

  We don’t need to enumerate the litany of injustice, ridicule and persecution  anybody who tried to counter these absurd narratives had to endure. Lost friends, family, jobs, position, businesses, cancelations, deplatformings – all of it.

  So it is unsurprising, now that the edifice is crumbling, that those who piled on to the persecutions, those who feathered their nest being “on the right side of history”, seeing that it’s all turning to dust in realtime, are starting – one and all – to back away from their role.

  Now the name of the game is to distance oneself from the most intense and virulent outbreaks of mass formation psychosis in recorded history:

  You can fuck right off with this shit. pic.twitter.com/YmDiHIR7TU

  — Clifton Duncan. (@cliftonaduncan) October 31, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There are many who were up to their eyeballs in this who will now try to frame themselves as “the voice of reason” who was trying to introduce some rationality into the conversation.

  We’re into the truly nauseating phase now, where every media whore, bluetard and imbecilic “expert” sombrely critiques the failures of Covid tyranny …as they frantically back-peddle away from their own complicity… https://t.co/9mFDpgCCD4

  — Mark Jeftovic, The C̶r̶y̶p̶t̶o̶ ₿itcoin Capitalist (@StuntPope) July 10, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The most nauseating part of #EndTheMandates and #NoMoreLockdowns is going to be when every sociopathic zealot who wanted to literally wreck your life for non-compliance will start taking victory laps and pretending they were always champions of The Great Reopening…

  — Mark Jeftovic, The C̶r̶y̶p̶t̶o̶ ₿itcoin Capitalist (@StuntPope) February 9, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Don’t believe them.

  

  “Sooner or Later Everyone Sits Down to a Banquet of Consequences”

  If the globally botched pandemic response accomplished one thing, it was to open many people’s eyes to how obsolete and ill equipped our current institutions are for handling a global crisis in this new, decentralized, multi-polar world.

  While these insular elites believed they had Divine Right to “re-imagine” every aspect of our lives for some grandiose Great Reset, it’s these sclerotic, self-serving institutions they inhabit who are going to get their asses re-imagined. With a vengeance.

  Here’s what you can do to reclaim your life, and take your power back from those who abused it and used their positions against you:

  1. Vote out any politician who imposed lockdowns or vaccine mandates – regardless of party affiliation. At least the ones who doubled down on them after it became clear how destructive and ineffective they were.
  2. Cancel all paid subscriptions to the mainstream media – you’re better off supporting the many independent outlets and those doing real journalism and providing high-signal content.
  3. Advocate for defunding state-run media apparatuses: NPR in the US, CBC in Canada, BBC in the UK, et al
  4. De-Google-fy your life: Start looking at alternatives to Big Tech. There are other search engines like Duck, Facebook is quickly becoming irrelevant, Twitter may be fun for awhile longer given the meltdowns over the Musk takeover.
  5. Don’t hire or do business with Covid fanatics. If you’re hiring or scouting vendors, check their socials: were they demonizing lockdown skeptics? Hashtagging “#Freedumb”? (Better start scrubbing those timelines, mofos)
  6. Buy Bitcoin. Yes, I’m shilling BTC because Bitcoin is the global opt-out – stacking sats is calling b/s on everything. 

  You can put that pandemic amnesty where the sun don’t shine. pic.twitter.com/NGIaMvLb5L

  — Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) November 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There will be no pandemic amnesty. More likely, by the time this is all over, there will be pandemic tribunals.

  *  *  *

  Mark E. Jeftovic is the CEO of easyDNS, co-founder of Bombthrower Media, author and investor. Sign up for The Bombthrower mailing list to get updates straight into your inbox and get a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you’re at it. Follow me on Gettr, Telegram or Twitter.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 19:30

• The View Co-Host Joy Behar Claims Crime Is “Going Down” Under Biden
  The View Co-Host Joy Behar Claims Crime Is “Going Down” Under Biden

  Does gaslighting still represent an effective debate strategy in 2022, or does the public understand how the tactic works?  We’re about to find out this month as the midterm elections approach, but for now the political left has decided that instead of addressing the numerous problems that have arisen nationwide on their watch, they would rather pretend that those problems don’t exist and anyone that says they do is a liar.  

  The View’s Joy Behar is leaping into action to save Democrats, arguing that the nationwide spike in crime is not real and that the numbers have been inflated by the Republican party.  Behar once again tried to distract from the main issue by mentioning the Jan 6th riot and suggests that protesters “tried to kill the vice president,” even though there was not a single death at the event attributed to the protesters.  She then states that crime has actually gone down under Joe Biden.  

  “Republicans now, coming up to the next election all they do is talk about crime, crime, crime…I looked it up, murders in major cities have fallen by 4% so far in 2022, compared with the same period a year ago. So crime is not on the rise, it’s actually going down under Joe Biden.”

  

  Behar does not cite the specific source for this optimistic data, nor does she outline the context.  Though, one can already see a highly dishonest spin on display in her comments.  

  For example, she seeks to conflate all crime with a single stat – Murder rates in major cities.  Americans are not only concerned with one type of crime, they are concerned with an increase in all types of crime.  According to data from Axios, overall violent crime rates are actually up 4.2% from January to June of this year. 

  While homicides rates did fall 2.4%, Behar should have taken into consideration the fact that they skyrocketed from 2020 through 2021, in almost exact parallel with the BLM riots and the covid lockdowns.  The drop in 2022 does not erase the gains from the past two years.

  This is much like Joe Biden making the claim that gas prices went down on his watch.  Prices actually doubled on his watch, and then fell slightly the past few months as he continues to dump oil from the US strategic reserves onto the market.  When it comes to statistics, everything is about context.   

  The downfall of the gaslighting methodology is that it is usually only effective against individuals, not an entire population.  You can’t tell millions of people that they are not suffering from increased crime while they deal with the effects on a daily basis.  They’re going to call you out for lying, and they certainly aren’t going to vote for your candidates at election time.  The frog in the pot strategy doesn’t work when the water is already boiling.  

  Even CNN, citing a poll from Gallup, recently admitted that Americans are more worried about crime today than at any other time this century.  And the majority of areas facing rising crime are in large cities controlled by Democrat politicians.    

  Separating the Dems from the spike in US crime is truly an impossible task after years of blind support for the BLM/Antifa riots and calls for defunding the police.  Behar’s misrepresentation of the statistics underscores a long running trend of political leftists ignoring inconvenient truths, from rising crime, to rising inflation, to rising public discontent over extreme social policies.  Pretending as if all is well is no longer an option.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 19:10

• Watch Live: President Biden Reads Pre-Midterm Speech On 'Dangers To Democracy'
  Watch Live: President Biden Reads Pre-Midterm Speech On ‘Dangers To Democracy’

  With midterms right around the corner and polls looking dismal for Democrats, President Biden is set to give a Wednesday speech on “preserving and protecting our democracy” during a DNC event in Washington DC.

  Because when you don’t have any accomplishments to ride on, use fear.

  

  Biden is scheduled to speak at 7pm ET at the Columbus Club in Union Station, where he will discuss “the threat of election deniers and those who seek to undermine faith in voting and democracy.” Really?

  Watch live:

  The speech was announced Wednesday morning during an Axios event.

  “Well, obviously, President Biden has been speaking about democracy for the entire time he’s been in office. And before then know, I think you can expect to hear from him this evening similar to what he’s been saying over the course of the last several months, that there is a lot at stake, including democracy, and that everyone has a role on that,” White House deputy chief of staff Jen O’Malley Dillon told Axios.

  “I think the other thing that will be really important and something you heard from President Biden in 2020 was that people are going to be able to vote. Over 25 million already have. They are voting all across the country. You know, in some places where we will have a lot of attention, focus, the votes will be counted and will take a few days to be counted because that’s how democracy works to make sure every vote is counted. So and highlight that as well for,” she added.

  White House senior adviser Anita Dunn said that Union Station was chosen as the venue because of its proximity to Capitol Hill, where the January 6th riots took place, Fox News reports.

  “On January 6, we saw violence geared toward subverting democratic processes there. So it is you know, it’s an appropriate place to make these remarks tonight,” Dunn said. She added that most Americans find political violence “abhorrent” and cited the brutal attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi as a recent example,” she said, adding “[Political violence is] something that unites almost all Americans and that we can all be united against. And obviously, we’ve seen horrible things happen quite recently, certainly the speaker’s husband. But it’s from Capitol Hill because that is where there was an attempt to subvert our democracy.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 18:55

• "Dark Clouds On Horizon": Maersk Warns About Rapid Economic Deterioration
  “Dark Clouds On Horizon”: Maersk Warns About Rapid Economic Deterioration

  A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest owner of container ships and one of the best bellwethers for global trade, lowered its outlook for the growth of 2022 global container demand and warned next year could be worse. 

  Maersk’s warning about a slowdown in container demand and economic turmoil ahead was conveyed in a third-quarter earnings report released today and in an interview by the company’s top executive on Bloomberg. 

  The Copenhagen-based company lowered its outlook for the growth of 2022 global container demand to decline 2-4% from the previous estimate of plus or minus 1%. The forecast sent Maersk’s shares tumbling nearly 6%. 

  “However, it is clear that freight rates have peaked and started to normalize during the quarter, driven by both decreasing demand and easing of supply chain congestion. As anticipated all year, earnings in Ocean will come down in the coming periods,” Maersk wrote in the earnings report.

  “There are plenty of dark clouds on the horizon,” the company continued, adding, “this weighs on consumer purchasing power which in turn impacts global transportation and logistics demand.”

  It then warned: “With the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, and a looming global recession.”

  Maersk CEO Soren Skou joined Bloomberg TV this morning for an interview where he said, “it’s really hard to be very optimistic with a war on our doorstep and a bigger energy crisis this winter so that is impacting consumer confidence and therefore also demand.” He added:

  “Global trade is moving backward this year.” 

  The company expects the global container market to be “broadly flat to negative” as risks in 2023 are “skewed to the downside” due to the macroeconomic headwinds. Skou noted in the interview that it is “clearly better for the economy and for our customers” to have lower freight rates. 

  In May, we outlined that a reversal of the “shortage of everything” bullwhip effect was nearing, as skyrocketing inventories (the result of Covid-era overordering due to snarled supply chains) was about to hit a faltering economy, and prices of goods would decline as companies would be forced to liquidate excess inventories into a recession (see “Bullwhip Effect Ends With A Bang: Why Prices Are About To Fall Off A Cliff” from May 23). We reminded readers about this a few times over the summer (“Bullwhip-Effect Reversal Is The Major Downside Growth Risk” and “Container Rates Slump As “Bullwhip Effect” Enters Terminal Phase“). 

  Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers. 

  

  As importers are stuck with inventory, they have reduced orders from overseas manufacturers, which has led to a plunge in container spot rates. Even to the extent that major shipping companies are canceling sails. 

  

  Maersk’s warning comes as central banks are engaged in the most aggressive interest rate hikes in decades to quell inflation. Any overtightening could spark a global recession next year. 

  

  Perhaps, JP Morgan’s consolidated manufacturing PMIs suggest mounting recession risks and declining price pressure are a big theme in 2023.  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 18:40

• Clarence Thomas Weighs In On Diversity
  Clarence Thomas Weighs In On Diversity

  Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

  The Supreme Court is likely to rule that colleges may no longer consider race as a qualification for college applications.

  This has been a problem in America for many years as colleges aim to admit racially diverse incoming classes and overlook test scores in the process.

  Even Elizabeth Warren falsely claimed to be Native American to gain access to a job at an Ivy League school, earning her the name of “Pocahontas.” The SCOTUS 6-3 conservative-liberal majority is reconsidering Affirmative Action in general.

  Justices Kagan and Jackson threw around the word “diverse” many times, but Clarence Thomas said that “diverse” has not been properly defined.

  

  Thomas has long been a critic of Affirmative Action and believes it is in itself racist.

  He explained his beliefs in 2003:

  “The Constitution abhors classifications based on race, not only because those classifications can harm favored races or are based on illegitimate motives, but also because every time the government places citizens on racial registers and makes race relevant to the provision of burdens or benefits, it demeans us all.”

  North Carolina Solicitor General Ryan Park told Thomas that diverse means “a broadly diverse set of criteria that expands to all different backgrounds and perspectives and not solely limited to race.”

  Thomas said he failed to see the educational benefits.

  “I’d like you to tell me expressly when a parent sends a kid to college that they don’t necessarily send them there to have fun or feel good or anything like that,” Thomas pressed.

  “They send them there to learn physics or chemistry or whatever their study. So tell me what the educational benefits are.”

  When Park said that students perform better in a diverse environment, Thomas said he has heard “similar arguments in favor of segregation.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 11/02/2022 – 18:20

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