- As Ukrainian Defenses Collapse, What Can US Patriots Learn From The Conflict?
As Ukrainian Defenses Collapse, What Can US Patriots Learn From The Conflict?
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us
In my article ‘Russia Is About To Overrun Ukraine’s Defenses – Why Are There No Peace Negotiations’, published in May, I outlined my reasons for predicting a near term collapse of Ukrainian front line defenses and a sweeping territory grab by Russian forces. Since the early months of the war my primary argument has been that Ukraine is trying to hide steep losses in manpower and that this ruse would eventually be exposed. Bottom line? Wars are won by men, not by DARPA technology and suitcases full of fiat cash.
A year ago mainstream analysts said Ukrainians troops (with NATO’s help) would soon destroy the Russian military and party on the beaches of Crimea. Today, the establishment admits manpower shortages are a reality and they admit Russia is overrunning Ukraine’s defensive positions all over the front. Soon, Russia will control the entirety of the Donbas region and beyond using attrition warfare.
The “experts” have no idea what they’re talking about, or, they’re lying to the public on purpose. Either way their opinions are not to be trusted.
As a student of history (and of military tactics) I can only relate to you what I see with an objective eye. I’m not in Ukraine and not on the front lines looking from both sides (and neither are the experts). I’m not privy to special intel and I don’t have access to the war rooms in Kyiv or the Kremlin (and neither are the experts). My goal here is NOT to break down a play-by-play of the war, I only hope to point out the greater truths being uncovered as the situation unfolds.
The kind of war we are seeing in Ukraine has not been fought by a western military since Korea. When it comes to industrial scale attrition warfare there are NO REAL EXPERTS in NATO still working at the Department of Defense. They don’t exist.
It is here that I want to begin because there are many patriots in the US preparing for what we believe will be widespread internal and external conflagration – Regional wars in multiple nations as well as rebellions here at home. What do the events in Ukraine teach us about the future of war? What classic assumptions have been debunked and what are the odds of success in the new strategic world? Let’s get started…
Maneuver Warfare Is Dying
The core emphasis of maneuver warfare is the use of initiative and surprise; the fast coordination of units to envelop the enemy before he realizes what is happening. It relies on shock and awe to demoralize, the idea being that the enemy can be defeated by chasing him down and using superior technology to render his defensive positions useless (the doctrine of the Vietnam War). It’s hard to say if these tactics ever really worked, but what we know now is that they will not work in future wars.
NATO doctrine in particular is proving to be quite useless. It relies too heavily on minimizing losses to highly trained officers. All maneuver warfare requires finely tuned tactics combined with technological know-how. Once experienced officers are shot down replacing them is difficult. Where Russia might be able to sustain hundreds-of-thousands of casualties, western armies are often broken by a fraction of those losses.
US patriots would do well to remember this. An enemy using maneuver doctrine loses when his best trained soldiers and officers are dead and he cannot coordinate fast attacks. An enemy using attrition doctrine loses when he is required to rush into an attack. Losing resources will force him to rush.
Drones Have Changed Everything
A big game changer is drones: Small cheap air surveillance with 4K cameras that are difficult to counter. Both Russia and NATO are quickly learning the threat these devices represent on the battlefields of Ukraine, and no, I’m not talking about the exploding FPV drones that chase down soldiers. I suspect most of those videos are fake anyway.
The real danger is in constant air based surveillance, 24/7, around the clock, always watching. Maneuver warfare requires the swift relocation of larger units without the enemy being aware; with cheap drones this is no longer possible. All large scale troop movements can be predicted and countered using nothing more than a handful of $3000 toys.
This is why Russia shifted quickly into attrition tactics. Now, they push their front line forward a few hundred yards at a time instead of trying to gain miles of territory in wild offensives. The DoD thinks maneuver tactics are still viable, but in order to successfully maneuver without the enemy’s knowledge you must fully control the skies. With drones, no one controls the skies anymore. It’s a free-for-all.
Infrastructure And Resource Devastation Is More Important Than Killing The Enemy
In 2022 during the Russian pull back many pro-Ukraine pundits cheered, proclaiming the war would soon be over. I warned in multiple articles that Russia was not retreating from the battle, only establishing a more solid front. I also predicted that Russia would immediately begin systematic bombardment of Ukraine’s utility grids. This is exactly what happened less than a month later.
I don’t think many in the west are aware of the level of destruction that has been dealt to Ukraine’s infrastructure. The majority of the country is without power for large parts of the day and the situation is only getting worse. Their water resources are limited at best. Only the grids serving major cities like Kyiv are afforded repair, and these repairs are a band-aid.
Patriots already plan for grid own scenarios, but they should also recognize the value of infrastructure attacks on an enemy that relies heavily on conventional logistics. Ukraine might be brought down, not by invading troops but by failing electricity and lack of clean water.
Smaller, Faster And More Discreet – The Future Of Combat
Interestingly, commanders in Ukraine on both sides are beginning to rely more and more on small units with a limited footprint. The name of the game in war today is “small signature” deployments. This is the use of squads to reduce visual and thermal signature and prevent targeting by drones or artillery. In other words, massive conventional armies are turning to guerrilla tactics as a way to survive and achieve successful strikes on defensive positions.
I could actually foresee an era when wars are ONLY fought using small teams of soldiers, supported by a host of drones and long range ordnance. Tanks are mostly useless now. Traditional air power is being slowly negated. Battalion sized movements are impossible without being quickly countered and even platoon sized elements are identified before they ever reach their destination.
Instead of moving in big groups that are easily targeted the Russians in particular are relying on a flurry of small unit attacks over a wide area using fast transportation (like motorcycles). They hit multiple targets along hundreds of miles of the front, forcing the Ukrainians to stretch out their defenses and resources. Then, they hit a vital area with a larger force once a weakness is identified. This is usually the way in which guerrillas fight; now everyone is doing it.
The Time Of The Guerrilla Is At Hand
The events in Ukraine showcase the many weaknesses of conventional armies. American patriots have been told for decades that any attempt to defend ourselves against an authoritarian government backed by a technologically advanced military machine is pointless. Our “AR15s can’t do anything against an F-16,” right?
We are now discovering the opposite is true. F-16’s are useless to Ukraine. What their soldiers want more than anything right now is more training for recruits, more thermal and night vision devices, more drones, better optics for their rifles and better gear for front line fighters. Jets and tanks are a novelty.
With the proliferation of cheap drones, for the first time ever civilian defense groups now have the ability to put eyes (and advanced weapons) in the sky. They can track larger enemy elements and prevent surprise attacks that anti-insurgent forces rely on. That is to say, guerrillas will still have the element of surprise but traditional forces will not.
Going Underground – The Return Of The Tunnel Rats
Americans first encountered intricate underground defenses in the Pacific Theater during WWII (Okinawa being the most impressive example). We saw them again in North Korea and yet again in Vietnam. In Ukraine the method is starting to become more common.
I would argue that future wars will be launched mainly from underground installations and tunnel systems. Drones rely on exploiting three-dimensional movement and are useless in enclosed spaces. This is a method that patriots need to adopt. Tunnel building will be a mainstay for decades to come.
Every Aspect Of War Will Now Be Televised
As long as the internet is a functional part of everyday life wars will now be recorded on an intimate scale never seen before. Every battle, every tiny movement or firefight, every win and every loss and every casualty will be documented. This means that web-based propaganda will become integral to any war effort.
In other words, governments will seek to implant fake news and fake video footage everywhere. The goal will be to make the fantasy indiscernible from fact and confuse the public on what is actually happening. This condition is brutally apparent in the Ukraine war where at least half the population of the west still thinks Ukraine is “winning.” The more duped the population, the easier it will be to convince them to support ongoing operations and even conscription.
The information war will become more important than the actual war. Patriots will have to understand how to deconstruct propaganda as much as they will have to know how to shoot.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 23:20 - Mapping The Number Of US Billionaires In Each State
Mapping The Number Of US Billionaires In Each State
The U.S. has the most billionaires in the world by a wide margin, more than twice the number of the next-highest country in the world – China. But where do they all live?
Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao maps the number of billionaires in each state, as of 2023, with data sourced from Forbes, accessed via World Population Review.
Ranked: U.S. States By Billionaire Residents
There are 760 billionaires in the U.S., of which 472 (62%) live in just four states: California, New York, Florida, and Texas.
California and New York are the only states with 100+ billionaires. In fact, they also have more billionaires than every other country in the world, except for China.
Rank State Billionaires 1 California 186 2 New York 135 3 Florida 78 4 Texas 73 5 Illinois 23 6 Massachusetts 22 7 Georgia 18 8 Pennsylvania 18 9 Nevada 17 10 Connecticut 13 11 Washington 13 12 Colorado 12 13 Washington D.C.* 11 14 Maryland 11 15 Tennessee 11 16 Arizona 11 17 Michigan 11 18 Oklahoma 8 19 Wisconsin 7 20 Missouri 7 21 Virginia 7 22 Ohio 7 23 Wyoming 6 24 Arkansas 6 25 Utah 6 26 North Carolina 6 27 New Jersey 5 28 Montana 4 29 Minnesota 4 30 Nebraska 3 31 Oregon 3 32 Indiana 3 33 Hawaii 2 34 Mississippi 2 35 Kansas 2 36 South Dakota 1 37 Rhode Island 1 38 Maine 1 39 Idaho 1 40 Iowa 1 41 Kentucky 1 42 Louisiana 1 43 South Carolina 1 44 Alabama 1 N/A Total 760 Fourteen states, led by the aforementioned Florida and Texas, have double-digit billionaire populations. Washington D.C.’s billionaire population is also in the double-digits (11) and because of its size, has the most billionaires per capita.
As of 2023, seven states (Alaska, Delaware, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Vermont, and West Virginia) have zero billionaires.
Alabama didn’t have a billionaire until last year when Great Southern Wood founder and CEO James Rane became one. The company is one of the largest in the world for manufacturing pressure-treated wood.
Billionaires are also on the move recently. America’s richest person, Elon Musk (worth $260 billion) lives in Texas, after bidding goodbye to the California in 2020. This year, Jeff Bezos moved to Miami after three decades in Washington, a relocation that could save him $600 million in taxes.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 22:45 - The Civil War Didn't 'Settle' The Question Of State Secession
The Civil War Didn’t ‘Settle’ The Question Of State Secession
By Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities
Secessionist inclinations are on the rise in the United States, and are sure to intensify after Nov. 5 regardless of which party prevails. When that happens, you can expect the accompanying discourse will be peppered with assertions that states have no right to secede, with many declaring the question was “settled” by the Civil War.
The embedded contention that legal and moral questions are rightly and permanently settled by the outcome of a mass-murder contest is absurd on its face. However, the notion is so widely and casually embraced that it invites an emphatic response. It also serves as a starting point to address other flawed forms of secession skepticism.
Written by a socialist in 1892, the Pledge of Allegiance attempts to program Americans into internalizing a falsehood: that the United States is “one nation, indivisible.” On that score at least, the deeply-flawed pledge isn’t working on a large number of citizens.
A YouGov poll taken earlier this year found substantial slices of both major parties would support their state’s departure from the union: 29% of Republicans and 21% of Democrats. Similarly, the five states in which secessionist yearning is highest represent a mixed bag of red and blue: Alaska (36%), Texas (31%), California (29%), New York (28%) and Oklahoma (28%). While 23% of all Americans want their state to secede, 28% would be content if other states did so.
For now, the Lone Star State seemingly has the strongest separatist momentum. In a June victory for the Texas Nationalist Movement, the Republican Party of Texas adopted platform planks proclaiming the state’s right to secede, and urging the legislature to arrange a state referendum question on the issue in the next general election. Many other states have secession movements of their own, and this July alone saw the launch of Free Louisiana and NHEXIT Now, the latter representing a rebranded drive for an independent New Hampshire.
It’s only natural that secession interest is highest in some of the reddest and bluest states, where citizens have the most to lose via the imposition of centralized federal dictates that emphatically clash with local preferences. Those anxieties over which party governs Washington, and the animosity between the two principal opposing camps, will only grow as Election Day nears and could skyrocket after the votes are counted.
It shouldn’t be that way: As I wrote in January here at Stark Realities, “the intensity of our division springs from a federal government operating far beyond the limits of the Constitution — fueling a fight for control over powers that were never supposed to exist at the national level.” Sadly, that dynamic isn’t going to change anytime soon, which means secessionist impulses are sure to ratchet up when the returns pour in on Nov. 5. The only question is whether that ratcheting will be strongest in blue or red states.
Either way, you’re sure to hear plenty of social media users, TV pundits and purported experts proclaiming that the question of whether states have the right to leave the union was “solved by the Civil War” — meaning that, since the seceding states’ armies were defeated, the answer is a firm “no.”
As the Mises Institute’s Ryan McMaken wrote in Breaking Away: The Case for Secession, Radical Decentralization and Smaller Polities, “Those who invoke this phrase…are signaling that they believe any attempt at secession justifies military invasion and occupation of separatist territories.” No reasonable person would apply that blanket proscription on foreign peoples, so it’s all the more strange to see Americans apply it to their fellow citizens — particularly when you consider that America is itself the product of secession.
As stated in the Declaration of Independence, “Governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed…whenever any form of government becomes destructive of [inalienable rights], it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it and to institute new government.” The idea that the federal government’s conquest of seceding states in the mid-1800s would somehow obliterate that right is as un-American as it is illogical.
Texas has the strongest secession movement of any state. As a separate republic, it would rank as the world’s 8th-largest economy. Though the Civil War has conditioned many Americans to associate secession with war — and to reflexively recoil from it on that basis — secession is not an inherently violent proposition. Secessionists don’t seek to destroy a government, only to remove themselves from its domain, consistent with their right of self-determination.
As showcased in dozens of separations around the world since 1776, peaceful secession is a gentle remedy for political incompatibility. The determination of whether a secession is peaceful or not is ultimately in the hands of the incumbent central government, and not those who seek to leave its control.
Some Americans struggle to approach the secession question with intellectual honesty because their thinking is fogged by feelings of vindication associated with the Civil War — feelings compounded by the widespread myth that the war was entirely about slavery and was therefore nothing less than a battle between good and evil.
To many, the very idea of secession is associated with sinister motives, even though the United States and many other countries came into being via secession, with no malicious intent.
Looking back to the run-up to the Civil War, slavery-abolitionists themselves championed secession, pushing for northern states to abandon the union. They sought not only to distance their states from slavery, but to undermine the institution by negating northern states’ legal obligation to send runaway slaves back to their masters.
This flag, circa 1861, centers on a slogan of northern abolitionists who promoted secession to distance free states from slave states Not that long before launching his war of choice that killed upwards of 850,000 soldiers and civilians for the paramount purpose of preserving the union, Abraham Lincoln himself vigorously endorsed the universal right of secession in an 1848 speech:
“Any people anywhere…have the right to rise up and shake off the existing government, and form a new one that suits them better…Nor is this right confined to cases in which the whole people of an existing government, may choose to exercise it. Any portion of such people that can, may revolutionize, and make their own, of so much of the territory as they inhabit.”
Venturing beyond the paper-thin “might makes right” Civil War argument, secession skeptics also point to the Supreme Court’s 1869 ruling in Texas v White. Though that case centered on a dry financial issue, it hinged on whether Texas was still part of the United States even after it declared its secession.
In a 5-3 decision, the court asserted that Texas had never really left the union because neither it nor any other state has the power to do so. In his majority opinion, Chief Justice Salmon Chase — a Lincoln appointee who may have been inclined to affirm the justness of the astoundingly bloody Civil War four years after it ended — wrote:
“The union between Texas and the other States was as complete, as perpetual, and as indissoluble as the union between the original States. There was no place for reconsideration or revocation, except through revolution or through consent of the States.”
To justify that conclusion, Chase embraced the fiction that the United States is a monolithic entity, one that vaguely “began among the colonies, and grew out of common origin, mutual sympathies, kindred principles, similar interests, and geographical relations.”
Chase’s opinion places great weight on the Constitution-preceding Articles of Confederation’s statement that “the union shall be perpetual.” His argument also relies heavily on the Constitution’s preamble, which refers to the states’ desire to form a “more perfect union.”
Through mere juxtaposition of the two phrases, Chase would have you believe that a supposedly indestructible, one-nation monolith created under the Articles of Confederation (it wasn’t) was merely given a polish by the Constitution, rather than a complete reformation that required each state to affirmatively accede to the new arrangement. The Texas Nationalist Movement has concisely skewered Chase’s short-circuiting rationale:
To reinforce his belief that the United States was a “perpetual union,” he had to assert the ludicrous argument that the United States Constitution was merely an amending document to the previous Articles of Confederation, citing the Preamble to the Constitution. He then had to ignore that it only took 9 States of the original 13 to ratify the Constitution of 1787 and that, had less than 13 States ratified, it would have destroyed the “perpetual union” allegedly created by the Articles of Confederation.
As with so many other cases in the high court’s history, Texas v White was wrongly decided. However, even those who credit the decision must acknowledge that it left the secession door cracked ajar: In the passage quoted above, Chase offered an avenue of Supreme Court-sanctioned secession via “consent of the states,” though it’s unclear how that would be put into practice.
Others who attempt to deny states’ right of secession point to the Constitution’s lack of a provision for a parting of ways. For example, while campaigning for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, former South Carolina Governor Nicky Haley said, “Texas has talked about seceding for a long time. The Constitution doesn’t allow for that.”
While the Constitution doesn’t address secession, it does have a provision that implicitly grants that power to the states. According to the 10th Amendment, “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” Since the Constitution does not expressly deny the states of that power (nor delegate it to the central government), secession is reserved to the states.
Even by itself, the word “delegated” further substantiates states’ right to secede, by underscoring that the United States was formed as a compact of independent states — with “states” used in a sense that puts Pennsylvania on par with Mexico or France. Those sovereign states created the federal government to serve them, only granting the new entity powers that James Madison described as “few and defined,” while the states retained powers that were “numerous and indefinite.”
“Delegated” validates that the states are rightly the masters of the federal government they created, and should therefore be free to voluntarily exit the compact just as they voluntarily entered it. As historian Brion McClanahan argued in a 2015 speech, “Sovereignty can be delegated, but a delegation assumes the ability to rescind that power.”
Speaking on the Constitution’s 50th anniversary, former president and statesman John Quincy Adams said:
“If the day should ever come, (may Heaven avert it,) when the affections of the people of these states shall be alienated from each other; when the fraternal spirit shall give away to cold indifference, or collisions of interest shall fester into hatred…far better will it be for the people of the disunited states to part in friendship from each other, than to be held together by constraint.”
One can debate whether the conditions Adams dreaded have fully descended or are merely imminent. Either way, when one also considers that the federal government is not only operating far beyond the bounds of the Constitution, but is also $35 trillion in debt and on an autopilot course for insolvency, the case for peaceful American secessions has never been stronger.
* * *
Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 22:10 - These Are The World's Largest Silver-Producing Companies
These Are The World’s Largest Silver-Producing Companies
Silver is one of the world’s most precious metals, holding an important position as a tradeable commodity and an essential part of many industrial processes and necessary technologies such as the next-generation photovoltaics helping power the transition to clean energy.
So, for this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Alan Kennedy used data from the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2024 to rank the top silver-producing companies of 2023.
Who Produces the Most Silver in 2023?
In 2023, silver mining companies collectively produced 831 million ounces of silver with the top 20 companies contributing 43% of that total—371 million ounces.
Here’s how this breaks down on a per-company basis:
*Polymetal Intl. changed its name to Solidcore Resources following an acquisition in June 2024
North America is home to 11 of the world’s top 20 silver mining companies, including Mexican company Fresnillo, which produced the most silver last year, at 54 million ounces.
Silver Industry Trends
Global production of silver dropped by 1% between 2022 and 2023, mainly driven by industry events that disrupted production, impacting several key silver-producing nations.
For example, between Q2 and Q3 of 2023, industrial action saw the suspension of the Newmont Peñasquito mine, and Argentina, as a whole, produced a lower grade of silver than expected in 2023.
However, many companies in smaller silver producers, such as Chile, have partially offset this loss through increased production.
Silver in 2024
Despite the challenges, there is hope for a potential production recovery from Mexican and U.S. mines in 2024. However, The Silver Institute expects total output from silver mining companies to fall by less than 1% again in 2024, with forecasts predicting an output of approximately 824 million ounces.
This expected production fall can be attributed to a drop in local production in Peru, where many productive mines have been temporarily closed.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 21:35 - Hotez Calls For Police Deployment Against "Anti-Vaxxers"
Hotez Calls For Police Deployment Against “Anti-Vaxxers”
Authored by Paul Thacker via The Brownstone Institute,
Social media went a little bonkers last week when an interview of Texas Children’s Hospital’s Dr. Peter Hotez began circulating with the Big Pharma insider calling for the United Nations and NATO to deploy security forces against “anti-vaxxers” in the United States. Dr. Hotez’s statements first appeared on the YouTube channel of an international pediatric conference that took place in Colombia, but the interview then jumped onto X.
The Simposio Internacional de Actualización en Pediatría (International Symposium of Pediatric Updates) later removed the interview from YouTube although photos can still be found on Facebook.
In clips of Hotez’s interview that continue to circulate on X, he claims “anti-vaxxers” caused hundreds of thousands of deaths in the United States. I uploaded one clip to my YouTube channel which you can watch here:
What I’ve said to the Biden administration is, the health sector can’t solve this on its own. We’re going to have to bring in Homeland Security, the Commerce Department, Justice Department to help us understand how to do this.
I’ve said the same with…I met with [WHO general director] Dr. Tedros last month…to say, I don’t know that the World Health Organization can solve this on our own. We need the other United Nations agencies—NATO. This is a security problem, because it’s no longer a theoretical construct or some arcane academic exercise. Two hundred thousand Americans died because of anti-vaccine aggression, anti-science aggression.
And so, this is now a lethal force…and now I feel as a pediatric vaccine scientist…it’s important, just as important for me to make new vaccines, to save lives. The other side of saving lives is countering this anti-vaccine aggression.
Hotez has long been noted for promoting controversial and sometimes false statements about the Covid pandemic and then accusing his critics of “anti-science.”
But this is not the first time Hotez has called for police to deploy against those who disagree with his views on science. Last October, Scientific American platformed Hotez as an expert on “anti-science” and didn’t bat an eyelid when he said support for scientists would require intervention by the Department of Homeland Security and the creation of a federal interagency task force.
Dr. Hotez again called for deploying federal police to support science during a grand rounds lecture he gave in August 2021. A whistleblower at Texas Children’s Hospital sent me the lecture where Hotez said the “disinformation empire” threatened America and would need to be dealt with by the Department of Homeland Security:
The problem is the disinformation empire is so vast and pervasive that until we do something more definitive to get to the source of the disinformation and stop it, it’s not going to have that much of an impact. And that’s where everybody moves away from me.
And I tend to be out on a…out on my own here.
Earlier this year, Time Magazine named Hotez a “Science Warrior” and one of the 100 most influential people in global health.
Republished from the author’s Substack
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 21:00 - Skies Are Lit Up Over Northern Israel As Hezbollah Fires Dozens Of Rockets
Skies Are Lit Up Over Northern Israel As Hezbollah Fires Dozens Of Rockets
2045ET: Hezbollah in the overnight hours has launched dozens of rockets toward Beit Hillel settlement in northern Israel, possibly over 50, triggering Israel’s Iron Dome anti-air defense system.
The sky has been lighting up over northern Galilee Sunday morning with the intercepts, as several social media videos show.
The Iron Dome is truly a Technological Marvel. pic.twitter.com/egMH5GY4IF
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 3, 2024
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Despite many intercepts, Israeli media is reporting that there were several impacts as a result, and any potential casualties are as yet unknown, but multiple fires reportedly broke out in northern Israel.
Steady cross-border rocket fire has been going since Friday, as Reuters reported: “Hezbollah said it had fired a surface-to-air missile at an Israeli warplane flying in Lebanese airspace overnight and forced it to turn back. Its forces also carried out two artillery attacks and two rocket strikes at military positions in northern Israel, it said.”
Via AFP But so far all of this is looking limited and contained, amid continued fears that things could slide into all-out war in the region involving Iran.
Meanwhile, speculation has abounded as to potential increased Russian defense support to Iran amid the standoff with Israel in the wake of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination this week…
BREAKING:
🇷🇺🇮🇷 Mass transport of weapons from Russia to Iran
Non-stop flights of IL-96 cargo planes from Russia to Iran, presumably carrying heavy military hardware pic.twitter.com/p8NMqv8Vw8
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) August 3, 2024
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* * *
The US embassy in Lebanon has issued an alert warning American citizens to exit Lebanon on “any ticket available” as the likelihood of a major war between Israel and Hezbollah as well as Iran grows.
A series of international and Western airlines have suspended service to the region as a the specter of all-out war looms. The embassy said that though there have been service stoppages and cancellations, “commercial transportation options to leave Lebanon remain available.”
Lebanese capital of Beirut, file image “We encourage those who wish to depart Lebanon to book any ticket available to them, even if that flight does not depart immediately or does not follow their first-choice route,” the embassy stated.
Starting in late June, Biden’s special envoy Amos Hochstein warned the Lebanese government, “The US won’t be able to hold Israel back if the situation on the border continues to escalate and that Hezbollah needs to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of ratcheting up tensions.”
Hezbollah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah has warned of a “new phase” in the war following an Israeli airstrike targeting and killing his top military chief Fuad Shukr this week.
Iran has already signaled what this will look like, with its Permanent Mission to the United Nations on Saturday saying in a statement to CBS that the group is expected to strike deeper inside Israel and that it will no longer confine itself to military targets.
The Iranian statement outlined that so far Hezbollah has limited itself according to an “unwritten understanding” or status quo engagement with Israel “confining their actions to border areas and shallow zones, targeting primarily military objectives.”
“However, the [Israeli] regime’s attack on the Dahieh [neighborhood] in Beirut and the targeting of a residential building marked a deviation from these boundaries,” the statement added.
“We anticipate that, in its response, Hezbollah will choose both broader and deeper targets, and will not restrict itself solely to military targets and means,” the spokesperson emphasized.
The Department of State has raised its Lebanon Travel Advisory from Level 3: Reconsider Travel to Level 4: Do Not Travel. We recommend that U.S. citizens enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive alerts. https://t.co/vE02vvquJg pic.twitter.com/7baXCRN5oV
— U.S. Embassy Beirut (@usembassybeirut) July 31, 2024
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If the situation begins to spiral, it is likely the US military will use its significant naval assets in the Mediterranean to begin evacuating American nationals from Lebanon. Often the first place Israel bombs is Beirut’s lone international airport.
On Friday night US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered additional navy cruisers, destroyers and a fighter squadron to deploy to the Middle East.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 20:45 - Goldman Says Mid-Atlantic Power Prices "Finally Caught Up To AI Data Center Load Growth Story"
Goldman Says Mid-Atlantic Power Prices “Finally Caught Up To AI Data Center Load Growth Story”
Marylanders and residents in surrounding states should brace for rising power bills due to capacity constraints on the regional power grid and the increasing peak load from new AI data centers (read: here). This combination creates a perfect storm of continued utility bill inflation, which will only pressure cash-strapped households in the years ahead.
On Friday, Goldman published a note about Tuesday’s PJM Interconnection power capacity auction for the 2025-26 planning year (June 1st, 2025, to May 31st, 2026). The note revealed a massive surge in capacity prices:
“The price across the RTO (see map below) was $269.92/MW- day. This is more than an 800 percent increase from the most recent auction (which cleared at $28.92/MW-day), and also a new record (the previous high was $174.11/MW-day for the 2010- 2011 planning year).”
“In addition to procuring the required capacity across the PJM RTO region, PJM’s auction also sets targets for specific zones or LDAs (Locational Deliverability Areas) based on transmission limitations. The auction failed to procure the required level of capacity in two zones (Dominion or “DOM” and Baltimore Gas and Electric or “BGE “) which cleared at the applicable caps of $444.26/MW-day (DOM) and $466.35/MW-day (BGE). PJM has not yet published the extent of the shortfall in the two zones.”
The critical point from the report:
“After a series of auction delays and relatively low clears (see chart below), PJM capacity prices appear to have finally caught up with the generative AI data center load growth story that has been central to parts of PJM.”
Goldman warned that more power capacity would be needed for grid stability. However, any new capacity could take years to come online, which essentially means, as the analysts point out, “higher prices are here to stay.”
“All else equal, the market expects the next few auctions to all clear at more robust prices, especially since the signal is clear – PJM needs more reliable capacity to manage the potential demand growth. Given the lead time for new-build capacity (4-5 years given current market dynamics and supply chain issues) the expectation is that generally higher capacity prices are here to stay.”
Goldman noted:
“The higher prices are expected to delay retirements, potentially spur more focus on coal-to-gas conversion for units that were at risk of retirement due to carbon related costs, and to also incentivize new construction.”
Meanwhile, as we’ve previously noted, “Maryland “Can’t Import Itself Out Of Energy Crisis” Amid Urgent Need To Boost In-State Power Generation …”
Let’s remember Maryland’s power crisis stems from ‘green’ policies pushed by progressive lawmakers in Annapolis who have banned any new fossil fuel power generation in the state. With AI data centers coming online, the result in the next 3-5 years will be crushing power bill costs to everyday voters.
Maryland voters need to make leftist lawmakers in Annapolis accountable for failed green policies that sends power costs higher.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 20:25 - DHS Puts Migrant Parole Program On Hold Amid Alleged Fraud In Application Process
DHS Puts Migrant Parole Program On Hold Amid Alleged Fraud In Application Process
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
The Biden administration’s parole program allowing tens of thousands of migrants from four countries into the United States has been put on hold after an internal report found “massive fraud” in its application process.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Friday that it has temporarily stopped granting new travel authorizations “out of an abundance of caution,” while it reviews sponsor applications.
The pause was initiated after an internal report by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) found the use of fraudulent information in thousands of application forms filed by sponsors. The report was obtained by the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).
A DHS spokesperson said in a statement to news outlets that the department takes any abuse of the program’s application processes “very seriously.”
“DHS has review mechanisms in place to detect and prevent fraud and abuse in our immigration processes,” the spokesperson said.
“Where fraud is identified, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will investigate and litigate applicable cases in immigration court and make criminal referrals to the Department of Justice,” it added.
The CHNV parole program was set in motion for Venezuelans by President Joe Biden in October 2022 and was intended to help ease the number of illegal border crossings by flying people from certain countries directly to the United States. It was expanded in January 2023 to include Cuba, Haiti, and Nicaragua.
The program allows up to 30,000 migrants from the four countries into the United States each month, provided they meet certain conditions, including having a sponsor in the United States who will provide them financial support.
DHS promised to resume application processing “as quickly as possible, with appropriate safeguards,” noting that it had not identified “issues of concern” relating to the screening and vetting of beneficiaries.
“The multi-layered screening and vetting for advanced travel authorizations is separate from the screening of U.S.-based supporters,” the DHS spokesperson said.
Internal Report Finds Fraudulent Information
An internal report by USCIS found the use of fake social security numbers (SSNs) and false phone numbers in application forms. It found that some phone numbers were not standardized U.S. phone numbers and some had 11 digits.
In one instance, a sponsor’s phone number appeared in more than 2,000 forms submitted by 200 sponsors. The report found that 100 physical addresses were used in more than 19,000 application forms.
The report stated that 100,948 forms were filed by 3,218 serial sponsors, indicating the repeated use of the same sponsors in multiple forms. It also found that 24 out of 1,000 most used SSNs belonged to a deceased person.
FAIR said the report was based on a review conducted by USCIS of more than 2.6 million sponsor application forms received by the agency as of April 17.
These applications were submitted electronically and reviewed by personnel “who simply deem the application sufficient.” Out of the total applications received, nearly 529,000 applications were approved and 118,000 were rejected.
Rep. Mark Greene (R-Tenn.), chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, called on the Biden administration to terminate the parole program immediately.
Greene said DHS’s pause on the program “vindicates every warning” the committee had issued about the program.
“This is exactly what happens when you create an unlawful mass-parole program,” he said in a statement.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) criticized the Biden administration’s move to implement the program and urged it be “shut it down permanently.”
“This program should have never existed in the first place. It’s just another way the Biden-Harris Administration has welcomed hundreds of thousands of aliens into our country, unchecked,” he stated on X.
At least 494,799 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have been allowed entry into the country under the administration’s CHNV parole program through June 2024, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Florida and Texas have received the most parole participants.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 19:50 - Waves Of Ukraine Civilians Flee As Russia Makes Steady Gains In East
Waves Of Ukraine Civilians Flee As Russia Makes Steady Gains In East
Regional and international sources, including Reuters, continue to report on Russian forces making steady gains in Ukraine’s east. But now these gains are coming so rapidly that Ukrainian civilians are having to hastily flee their homes amid the onslaught.
Reuters for example speaks of a “wave of people fleeing Russian advances on several fronts in the eastern region of Donetsk, as Moscow batters” steadily across Ukraine’s defensive front lines.
Illustrative file image: AP “Pressing home their advantages in manpower and weapons, Russian forces have fought their way towards major towns and supply routes in pursuit of their goal of full control of Ukraine’s industrialized and mineral-rich Donbas,” the report continues.
Ukrainian officials have of late admitted that Russia has almost captured and solidified its hold over all of Donetsk Oblast. President Zelensky on Friday acknowledged Pokrovsk sector to be scene of the “most severe battles” and now a prime target for Moscow. According to the latest gains:
One recent advance has allowed Russia to open a salient only 20 km (12 miles) from Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub and still home to about 60,000 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Pokrovsk was now Russia’s main target.
Moscow has claimed control of four villages east of Pokrovsk in the last week. Ukraine did not comment on those claims.
Russian soldiers have reached the edge of Toretsk, where the regional governor said a week ago that only 3,500 people were left, just over 10% of the prewar population. More have since been evacuated by authorities and humanitarian organizations.
Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack on the Slavyansk-EKO refinery, Ilsky oil refinery, and a bitumen plant in Russia’s Krasnodar region last night.
Locals report multiple explosions and fires. According to eyewitnesses, the explosions did not stop for more than 30… pic.twitter.com/oyXBVg9eW3
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 27, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
As for offensive actions, Kiev as appeared somewhat helpless on key front lines in the east, and so instead has chosen to continue escalating its highly provocative cross-border operations.
On Saturday Russian officials said that some 55 drones were launched against the Rostov region, with at least 36 of them being intercepted.
But reportedly a number of targets still suffered damage. Ukraine says it successfully degraded Russian military capabilities across three regions, including strikes on an airfield and fuel depots.
In addition to making Russia’s Morozovsk Airbase completely uninhabitable last night, at least 6 Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck a large Russian fuel storage depot in Rostov Oblast, setting several storage tanks ablaze. pic.twitter.com/r6q6QGuNm8
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 3, 2024
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Local Russian officials confirmed fires at tanks at a fuel storage depot in the Kamensky district of Rostov on Saturday. Belgorod also saw oil storage depots on fire, but the blaze was quickly extinguished.
Rostov oblast governor said some civilian infrastructure was damaged, announcing on Telegram, “At the moment we have recorded damage to the windows in several social facilities, including schools and kindergartens, as well as in residential houses and industrial premises.”
At this point is has become clear that no matter how many weapons the West pours into Ukraine’s military, it is Russia’s ability to overwhelm the front with more manpower and artillery ammo that is making all the difference.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 19:15 - San Francisco Proposes Student Loan Forgiveness Fund For First Responders
San Francisco Proposes Student Loan Forgiveness Fund For First Responders
Authored by Summer Lane via The Epoch Times,
The San Francisco Board of Supervisors this week approved an ordinance establishing a student loan forgiveness program for first responders in the city, if voters approve the measure during the November election.
The ordinance, sponsored by Supervisors Ahsha Safaí, Matt Dorsey, and Shamann Walton, will allow voters to decide if the city’s administrative code should be amended for the purpose.
The fund would pay outstanding student loans and job-related educational training expenses for first responders employed by the city, according to the proposal.
It would apply to members of the police, fire, and sheriff’s departments. Paramedics, registered nurses, 911 dispatchers, and emergency supervisors and coordinators would also qualify, per the ordinance.
During a rules committee meeting July 22, Safaí, who is running for mayor this year, said staffing shortages among first responders in the city had become a “dire situation.” He also described the public safety and healthcare system in San Francisco as “severely strained.”
“We need creative incentives to prevent a catastrophic breaking point and ensure that we can attract and retain excellent, qualified candidates to serve our city’s public safety ecosystem,” he said.
Safaí said the ordinance, if passed, would go into effect Jan. 1, 2025.
To qualify, candidates would also have to be employed for at least three years, he said.
“These are all the people we count on every single day, and we must prioritize proper staffing levels,” he said.
According to a letter from the city controller’s office in July, funding for the program would be appropriated by the mayor and the board of supervisors or private donations.
According to Safaí, the ordinance’s goal is to build the loan forgiveness and job training fund to $25 million and provide up to $25,000 in loan forgiveness and job training for each qualifying employee.
The ordinance needs more than 50 percent approval from voters to pass.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 18:40 - Kamala Harris's Husband Admits To Cheating On 1st Wife With Homewrecker Nanny, Knocking Her Up
Kamala Harris’s Husband Admits To Cheating On 1st Wife With Homewrecker Nanny, Knocking Her Up
Less than a week after people were snickering over Kamala Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff taking a SoulCycle class with “a gay couple friend” in West Hollywood when he learned of President Biden’s decision to step out of the 2024 race – the Daily Mail wants us to know that Emhoff cheated on his first wife Kerstin with their blonde nanny, Najen Naylor, who also taught at their children’s private school.
Emhoff’s cheating ‘scandal’ is said to be causing “panic in Harris’s campaign.”
According to the report:
Emhoff, 59, and movie producer ex-wife Kerstin, 57, ended their 16-year marriage in 2009 when she discovered the affair, the sources said. Their daughter Ella was 10 and son Cole was 15 at the time.
Sources claimed that after the affair, Naylor had to leave her job as a teacher at The Willows, an elite private elementary school in Culver City, California, where she had been teaching the Emhoff children and moonlighting as a nanny for the couple.
Employment records obtained by DailyMail.com show Naylor worked at The Willows in 2009. She is friends on Facebook with current staff. -Daily Mail
A close friend with knowledge of the affair and pregnancy told the Mail that Naylor didn’t keep the child – however a mysterious baby girl named Brook appeared on her social media feed in 2009, the year the baby would have been born.
Emhoff and his first wife Kerstin had two children including model Ella Emhoff admitted to the affair, telling CNN‘s Edward-Isaac Dovere, “During my 1st marriage, Kerstin and I went through some tough times on account of my actions. I took responsibility, and in the years since, we worked through things as a family and have come out stronger on the other side.”
NEWS: @DouglasEmhoff to me:
“During my 1st marriage, Kerstin and I went through some tough times on account of my actions. I took responsibility, and in the years since, we worked through things as a family and have come out stronger on the other side.” https://t.co/tTkiGEq6bY
— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) August 3, 2024
Democrats on one of their own cheating:
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 18:05 - Judge Chutkan Denies Trump's Motion To Dismiss Election Case, Sets Status Conference
Judge Chutkan Denies Trump’s Motion To Dismiss Election Case, Sets Status Conference
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has scheduled a mid-August status conference in the classified documents case against former President Donald Trump, while denying his legal team’s motion to dismiss the indictment.
The status conference, set for Aug. 13 in a Washington, D.C., federal courthouse, will address procedural matters and help determine the next steps in the proceeding, reads an order signed by Chutkan on Aug. 3.
Chutkan ordered both the prosecution and the defense to submit a joint status report by Aug. 9, which will update the court on the progress of the case and can include such information as any agreements or disputes between the parties, as well as completed tasks and upcoming deadlines.
In the same order, Chutkan granted a brief stay on the briefing deadlines for special counsel Jack Smith’s motion seeking to limit the evidence and arguments that Trump’s legal team can introduce during the trial, particularly those that prosecutors argue are irrelevant or prejudicial.
Specifically, the government’s motion seeks to exclude evidence related to Trump’s claims of selective prosecution, alleged investigative misconduct, and speculative theories about foreign influence or undercover agents during the Jan. 6, 2021 breach of the U.S. Capitol. Smith has also asked the judge to disallow arguments meant to sway the jury with political rhetoric or potential consequences of a conviction, and to impose limits on cross-examination by the defense, including potential testimony on Trump’s state of mind or belief that the 2020 election was stolen.
Chutkan’s order also denied without prejudice Trump’s motion to dismiss the indictment, which was filed on statutory grounds. Trump attorneys claim in their motion that Smith’s indictment improperly applied legal statutes, while arguing that the charges filed failed to demonstrate any acts of deceit or trickery necessary to establish conspiracy to defraud the United States, a key charge leveled against the former president in the case.
Smith’s team charged Trump with four counts, including conspiracy to defraud the United States and to obstruct an official proceeding, in a case that centers on the former president’s actions after the 2020 election. Trump has pleaded not guilty, arguing that the case is motivated by political animus against him and is designed to thwart his 2024 presidential campaign.
Trump counsel also argued in the motion to dismiss that Trump’s public comments and actions to contest the results of the 2020 election were lawful exercises of his First Amendment rights and do not amount to obstruction of a government function. They also claimed that the indictment lacked the specificity required to support claims of corrupt intent, while arguing that the legal statutes cited by Smith’s team in the indictment should be interpreted more narrowly to avoid criminalizing legitimate political activity.
A request for comment sent to Trump counsel regarding Chutkan’s rejection of the motion to dismiss was not immediately returned.
The renewed activity in the case, which had been put on hold pending Trump’s appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court on arguments he was immune from prosecution, occurred after the case was returned to Chutkan on Aug. 2, paving the way for further motions and hearings.
The Supreme Court ruled on July 1 that Trump is entitled to some immunity, based on the high court’s finding that presidents have absolute immunity for actions within their “conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority,” presumptive immunity for official acts, and no immunity for unofficial acts.
The Supreme Court justices sent the case back to district court, leaving it up to Chutkan to decide how to apply the ruling to the case.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 17:30 - Central Banks Purchase Gold To Offset Their Own Monetary Destruction
Central Banks Purchase Gold To Offset Their Own Monetary Destruction
Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,
Why is the price of gold rising if the global economy is not in recession and inflation is allegedly under control? This is a question often heard in investment circles, and I will try to answer it.
We must begin by clarifying the question. It is true that inflation is slowly decreasing, but we cannot say that it is under control. Let us remember that the latest CPI data in the United States was 3% annualized and that in the eurozone it is 2.6%, with eight countries publishing data above 3%, including Spain.
This is why central banks need to give the impression of hawkishness and maintain rates or lower them very cautiously. However, monetary policy is far from being restrictive. Money supply growth is picking up, the ECB maintains its “anti-fragmentation mechanism,” and the Federal Reserve continues to inject money through the liquidity window. We can say, without a doubt, that monetary policy is beyond accommodative.
At the end of this article, the price of gold is above $2,400 an ounce, up 16.5% between January and July 19, 2024. In the same period, gold has performed better than the S&P 500, the Stoxx 600 in Europe, and the MSCI Global. In fact, over the past five years, gold has outperformed not only the European and global stock markets, but also the S&P 500, with only the Nasdaq surpassing the precious metal. This is a period of alleged recovery and strong expansion of the stock markets. On the one hand, the market is discounting the central banks’ continued accommodative and expansionary policies, even possible high debt monetization, given the unsustainable deficits in the United States and developed countries. That is, the market assumes that the Federal Reserve and the ECB will not be able to maintain the reduction of their balance sheets in the face of rising debt and public spending in many economies. As a result, gold protects many investors against the erosion of the currency’s purchasing power, i.e., inflation, without the extreme volatility of Bitcoin. If the market discounts further monetary expansion to cover the accumulated deficits, it is normal for the investor to seek protection with gold, which has centuries of history as an alternative to fiduciary money and offers a low-volatility hedge against currency debasement.
Another important factor is the central bank’s purchase of gold. JP Morgan is credited with the phrase “gold is money and everything else is credit.” All the world’s central banks include treasury bonds from countries that serve as global reserve currencies in their asset base. This allows central banks around the world to try to stabilize their currencies. When we read that a central bank buys or sells dollars or euros, it is not making transactions with physical currency but with government bonds. Hence, as the market price of government bonds has fallen 7% between 2019 and 2024, many of these central banks are facing latent losses from a slump in the value of their assets. What is the best way to strengthen a central bank’s balance sheet, thereby diversifying and reducing exposure to fiat currencies? Purchase gold.
The rising purchases of gold by central banks are an essential factor justifying the recent increase in demand for the precious metal. Central banks, especially in China and India, are trying to reduce their dependence on the dollar or the euro to diversify their reserves. However, this does not mean full de-dollarization. Far from it.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks have accelerated their gold purchases to more than 1,000 tonnes per year in 2022 and 2023. This means that monetary authorities account for almost a quarter of the annual demand for gold during a period when supply and production have not grown significantly. The ratio of output to demand stands at 0.9 in June 2024, according to Morgan Stanley.
Global official gold reserves have increased by 290 net tonnes in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2000, according to the World Gold Council, 69% higher than the five-year quarterly average (171 metric tonnes).
The People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of India are the biggest buyers as they aim to balance their reserves, adding more gold to reduce loss-making exposure to government securities. According to Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, and the World Gold Council, China has been increasing its gold purchases for seventeen months, and since 2022, it has shot up its reserves by 16%, coinciding with the increase in global polarization and the trade wars.
That does not mean full de-dollarization, as the People’s Bank of China has 4.6% of its total reserves in gold. US Treasury bonds are the most important asset, accounting for more than 50% of the Chinese central bank’s assets. However, its goal is to raise gold reserves to at least 14%, according to local media. Thus, it would imply a significant annual purchase of gold for years.
India’s central bank increased its gold reserves by 19 metric tonnes during the first quarter. Other central banks that are diversifying and buying more gold than ever are the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Central Bank of Qatar, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Oman, according to the sources cited above. During this period, both the Czech National Bank and the National Bank of Poland increased their gold reserves in Europe, reaching the highest level since 2021. In these cases, the aim is to balance the exposure in the asset base with more gold and less eurozone government bonds.
The goal of this central bank trend is to increase the weight of an asset that does not fluctuate with the price of government bonds. It is not about de-dollarization but about balancing the balance sheet from the volatility created by their own misguided expansionary policies. For years, the policy of central banks has been to reduce their gold holdings, and now they must come back to logic and rebalance after suffering years of latent losses on their government bond holdings. In fact, one could say that the world’s central banks anticipate their own widespread erosion of the purchasing power of reserve currencies due to the saturation of fiscal and monetary policies, and for that reason, they need more gold.
After years of thinking that money can be printed without limits and without creating inflation, monetary authorities are trying to return to logic and have more gold on their balance sheets. At the same time, many expected that the trade war between China and the United States and global polarisation would be reversed in the Biden years, and the opposite has happened. It has accelerated. Now, the latent losses in the sovereign bond asset portfolio are leading all these central banks to buy more gold and try to protect themselves from new bursts of inflationary pressures.
In an era of high correlation between assets and perpetual monetary destruction, gold serves as a low volatility, low correlation, and strong long-term return addition to any prudent portfolio.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 16:20 - Trump Says Mark Zuckerberg Called Him And Said He Won't Support Democrats
Trump Says Mark Zuckerberg Called Him And Said He Won’t Support Democrats
Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,
Donald Trump has claimed that Meta owner Mark Zuckerberg reached out to him to let him know that he admires Trump’s reaction to the attempt on his life and that he won’t be supporting the Democrats in the upcoming election.
Trump made the comments in a Fox News interview, noting “I was called by Mark Zuckerberg, yesterday, the day before… He actually announced that he can’t support a Democrat, because he can’t because he respected me for what I did that day.”
Trump added that Zuckerberg told him that he thought the reaction of standing up after being shot was “brave,” even though Trump considers it just “a normal response.”
Donald Trump has claimed that Meta owner Mark Zuckerberg reached out to him to let him know that he admires Trump’s “brave” reaction to the attempt on his life and that he won’t be supporting the Democrats in the upcoming election. Report here: https://t.co/lOR6OsFpBX pic.twitter.com/vSsKNXZ0x2
— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) August 3, 2024
Trump also claimed that Zuckerberg “actually apologized, he said he made a mistake,” for Facebook initially censoring the iconic image of Trump fist pumping the air.
The ‘mistake’ apparently stemmed from the fact that someone altered the original image.
“I believe Mark Zuckerberg,” Trump further declared, explaining “he called me a lot, they are working on it, and I think they fixed it, and he’s not doing what he did four years ago with the $500 million,” referring to huge grants Zuckerberg gave to Democrat supporting non profit organisations four years ago.
Trump added that “no one called from Google” after it emerged that search results on the assassination attempt had been repressed.
“Google has been very bad,” Trump continued, adding “they’ve been very irresponsible. And I have a feeling that Google’s going to be close to shut down, because I don’t think Congress is going to take it. I really don’t think so. Google has to be careful.”
As we previously highlighted, Zuckerberg admitted that he believes Trump’s reaction after the failed assassination attempt was the one of the most “badass” things he’s ever witnessed.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 15:10 - Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Quietly Dumps Half Its Apple Shares Amid Unprecedented Selling Spree
Buffett Calls The Top: Berkshire Quietly Dumps Half Its Apple Shares Amid Unprecedented Selling Spree
When yesterday we said, when discussing Buffett’s ongoing liquidation of his Bank of America stake, that “Berkshire’s rising cash stockpiles merely reflect the firm’s inability to find deals in today’s overvalued and weak economic environment”, little did we know just how accurate that would be, because fast-forwarding just one day later we find that far from only dumping Bank of America, the 93-year-old Omaha billionaire had been busy quietly dumping his most iconic holding in an unprecedented selling spree that sent Berkshire’s cash pile soaring by a record $88 billion to an all time high $277 billion at the end of Q2.
As shown in the chart below, in the second quarter (which ended June 30, and thus just two weeks after the Apple’s Developer Conference which took place on June 10 and which was – at least on the day of – a total bust), Berkshire sold a net $75.5 billion worth of stock, the bulk of which we now know, came from Buffett’s liquidation of half his Apple shares.
While there was no 13F filed yet to go with the Berkshire’s 10Q, the company did provide a snapshot of its top holdings, revealing that as of June 30 it held only $84.2 billion in Apple stock, down sharply from $135.4 billion as of March 31 and $174.3 billion as of Dec 31, 2023. This translates into just 400 million shares of AAPL held as of June 30, down almost 50% from 789.4 million as of March 31 and 905.6 million as the end of 2023.
The rest of Berkshire’s top 5 holdings (Bank of America, American Express, Coca Cola and Chevron) was left untouched in Q2, meaning that Buffett clearly decided that it was time for Apple to go (we have since learned that subsequent to the end of Q2, Buffett also started to dump a large portion of his Bank of America shares where he is the single largest shareholder).
While Berkshire’s cash balance rose by a record $88 billion – where proceeds from the sale of Apple were the bulk of the new cash – the company also generated substantial cash from its own operations, and in Q2 Berkshire reported operating earnings of $11.6 billion, up from $10 billion for the same period a year ago.
Berkshire has for years struggled to find ways to deploy its mountain of cash in a sluggish deal environment, lamenting the lack of cheap opportunities. At the firm’s annual shareholder meeting in May, Buffett said he wasn’t in a rush to spend “unless we think we’re doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money.” It now appears that not only was Buffett not in a rush to spend, but taking advantage of the AI bubble, he has been aggressively liquidating his biggest holding.
What is perhaps most remarkable is when and how Buffett dumped half his Apple holdings: Berkshire managed to offload a stunning $84 billion, or some 390 million shares, in AAPL at a time when the stock was appreciating rapidly, and especially after the meltup following the WWDC24 developer conference. In other words, the smart money was furiously dumping to retail, because as we noted at the time, hedge funds were certainly not buying tech at this time, as we reported on July 1 in “Getting Out Of Dodge: Hedge Funds Are Selling And Shorting Stocks At The Fastest Pace In Two Years“, almost as if they had notice that Buffett was dumping…
It also makes one wonder if Buffett may not have had something to do with Apple’s bizarre performance after the WWDC24 conference. As a reminder, the kneejerk response to Tim Cook’s “earthshattering” reveal of a chatGPT Siri was a huge dud, with the stock dumping on the day of WWDC24.
*APPLE EXTENDS DECLINE AMID DEVELOPER CONFERENCE PRESENTATION
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 10, 2024
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It wasn’t until the next day when, thanks to a relentless barrage of bullish sellside reports and kickstarted by a furious buyback order from the company itself, the stock proceeded to surge and regain the world’s most valuable slot from Microsoft. Almost makes one wonder if Buffett didn’t call in a few favors from his banker friends on this one…
Finally, it’s not just AAPL that Buffett believes is overvalued and is aggressively dumping: the billionaire clearly believes the entire market is way expensive, and Berkshire bought back only $345 million of its own shares during the quarter, the lowest amount since the company changed its buyback policy in 2018. It’s hardly a surprise why: as we noted in “Berkshire’s Growing Cash Pile Has A Hidden Message On Stocks” the Buffett Indicator has rarely signaled a more expensive market.
Bottom line: unlike October 2008, when Buffett led the clarion call to “Buy American“, this time he is selling American at a never before seen pace.
Are you?
One thing we know, Buffett is fearful.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 14:35 - New York State Supreme Court Blocks NYC Mayor Adams' Attempt To Pause Migrant Arrivals
New York State Supreme Court Blocks NYC Mayor Adams’ Attempt To Pause Migrant Arrivals
Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times,
The New York State Supreme Court has denied New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s request for a preliminary injunction against busing illegal immigrants from Texas to the city.
Adams, who faces challenges from New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and others in his reelection bid next year, filed a lawsuit against 17 charter bus companies in January.
His goal was to stop the companies from busing migrants, many of them undocumented, from communities in Texas to New York. The mayor cited Social Services Law 149, which stipulates that any person “who knowingly brings, or causes to be brought, a needy person from out of state into this state for the purpose of making him a public charge” has an obligation “to convey such person out of state or support him at his own expense.”
But in her nine-page July 29 ruling, Judge Mary V. Rosado found that the lawsuit was “unconstitutional.”
The judge found that the matter was similar to a 1941 Supreme Court case, Edwards v. California, in which the Supreme Court found that an “essentially identical” law in California was unconstitutional for violating the Interstate Commerce Clause.
She cited the ruling, saying, “The Court finds that it cannot grant the … request for injunctive relief as the merits of [the] claim are dubious at best given myriad constitutional concerns.”
The state supreme court’s ruling is a setback for the Adams administration, whose legal moves had succeeded in getting one bus company, Roadrunner Charters Inc., to enter into an agreement to pause busing migrants to the city until the court reached a decision. Now, Roadrunner Charters and other bus services are free to continue transporting migrants to New York.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott quickly responded to the ruling on X, formerly Twitter, writing, “Another WIN! … Until the Biden-Harris Administration secures the border, Texas will continue to send migrants to sanctuary cities.”
Adams’s position was that dropping thousands of people in New York strained social services and the amount of available shelter space past the limit, costing more than $700 million. In a similar spirit to the busing lawsuit, the mayor has sought to enforce a 60-day limit on shelter space for asylum seekers in the city.
In the past two years alone, a reported 205,000 migrants have arrived in the city, straining existing social services and prompting the Adams administration to set up more than 200 emergency shelter sites.
The New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU), which filed an amicus brief in the case, argued that people have a right to come to New York regardless of their immigration status or whether they are self-sufficient and that the injunction Mayor Adams sought was unconstitutional.
“The court has rightly rejected the city’s cruel attempt to limit newly arrived immigrants from traveling to and making a home here in New York City. Everyone, whether or not they are a citizen and no matter their resources, has the right to travel and reside anywhere within the United States—including Texas and New York,” Beth Haroules, a senior staff attorney at the NYCLU, said in a statement.
“New Yorkers deserve better than xenophobia and discrimination masquerading as policy,” she continued, adding that the NYCLU looks forward to the court’s full dismissal of the mayor’s case.
Challenge
The mayor’s stance on migration has put him at odds with not only the NYCLU but also other figures in city government, including Lander.
In recent months, the mayor’s rival in the coming primary election has made efforts to publicize what the comptroller believes are unduly harsh policies toward migrants.
On May 9, Lander released the findings of an investigation into the mayor’s 60-day shelter limit for families seeking asylum. The comptroller’s office criticized the “haphazard” enforcement of the limit.
The investigation found that, as of April 28, the Adams administration had issued 60-day notices to a total of 10,229 families with children. Altogether, it affected 19,497 adults and 18,149 children.
The investigation found that the city did not provide clear and consistent guidelines and written notices to the people affected. In theory, families with newborns and pregnant women in their final trimester before giving birth were exempt from the limit, but the comptroller’s office charged that staff and contractors never received written instructions to this effect.
Moreover, the investigation said that the city “specifically discriminated” against families with elementary-school-age children in making shelter placements. It added that the city subjected 37,000 people to repetitive screenings for alternatives to shelters, the investigation found.
But Adams, whose administration has struggled to find accommodations for the massive influx, has said the city is faced with a serious crisis.
During a town hall-style meeting in Manhattan in September 2023, the mayor described a crisis that surpassed anything he had seen in his career in public service.
“Let me tell you something, New Yorkers, never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to—I don’t see an ending to this,” the mayor said.
“This issue will destroy New York City,” he added.
Neither the mayor’s office nor the NYCLU responded by publication time to a request for comment.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 14:00 - Make Small Gov't Great Again? Musk Talks With Trump About "Gov't Efficiency Commission"
Make Small Gov’t Great Again? Musk Talks With Trump About “Gov’t Efficiency Commission”
The Biden-Harris Administration recently awarded $3.1 billion to the failed California High-Speed Rail project, which has already wasted $95 billion in taxpayer funds and is decades behind completion.
Another federal government mega failure is the now stalled rollout of high-speed internet across rural America, which cost taxpayers tens of billions. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s space internet company Starlink could’ve supplied internet via low-Earth-orbit satellites to millions of Americans in rural America for a fraction of the cost. But with the Biden admin at war with Musk over free speech platform X, the admin overlooked Starlink.
These examples result from a bloated, inefficient government plagued by rampant mismanagement and corruption, stifling the nation’s progress. The root cause is the absence of accountability and meritocracy among government workers on the managerial level.
If America intends to maintain its superpower status (and the ‘woke’ religion wants to destroy that), uphold the dollar’s dominance, and counter China’s expanding global dominance, then a swift and radical overhaul of the federal government is desperately needed.
Musk has demonstrated through SpaceX, the global leader in reusable rocket launches, that private industry drives America’s dominance in space. NASA has since taken a back seat with SpaceX dominating rocket launches, while competing rocket companies, such as Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, recently unleashed lawfare against SpaceX to slow launches.
Here’s a snapshot of rocket launches (using data from BryceTech) that shows Musk’s rocket company launched 525 spacecraft into orbit in the first quarter, far outpacing China and Russia. The data shows that SpaceX is beating entire nation-states.
The context above is crucial here, as Musk appeared on the Lex Fridman Podcast on Friday. During the conversation, they discussed government waste and the extent of its inefficiency.
Fridman told Musk, “I wish you could go into Washington for a week and be the head of the committee for making government smaller.”
Musk responded, “I have discussed with Trump the idea of a government efficiency commission … and I would be willing to be apart of that commission.”
The billionaire continued by saying that when you remove all the waste in government, well, “You’re attacking the Matrix at that point … Matrix will fight back.”
Additionally, Musk revealed 7 reasons why he’s voting for Donald Trump
1. Elon Musk was astounded when Trump fist-pumped and shouted, “Fight!” shortly after getting shot in the face. “You can’t feign bravery in a situation like that,” he said.
2. Musk seeks a leader “who is strong and courageous to represent the country.”
3. He wants someone tough to deal with world leaders who are pretty tough themselves. “Poor guy [Biden] has trouble climbing a flight of stairs, and the other one’s first pumping after getting shot. This is no comparison.”
4. Musk wants “a secure border. We don’t have a secure border.”
5. He wants someone who can deliver “safe and clean cities.”
6. Musk Thinks Trump is the better candidate to reduce spending. He’s concerned about this issue because “we’re currently spending at a rate that is bankrupting the country.”
7. Musk aligns with Trump’s vision to cut bureaucratic bloat. He wants someone who will “reduce the size of government.”
Pretty convincing list, wouldn’t you agree?
Elon Musk Reveals 7 Reasons Why He’s Voting for Donald Trump
1. @ElonMusk was astounded when Trump fist-pumped and shouted, “Fight!” shortly after getting shot in the face. “You can’t feign bravery in a situation like that,” he said.
2. Musk seeks a leader “who is… pic.twitter.com/x63hBAmJx7
— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 3, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Watch the full interview below:
Earlier this year, President Javier Milei of Argentina slashed tens of thousands of jobs in a “chainsaw-style” approach to reducing the state’s size.
If Trump wins in November, Musk will help drain the swamp.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 13:25 - Psychology Has Shifted And Confidence Has Broken
Psychology Has Shifted And Confidence Has Broken
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Just about two weeks after I wrote an article called “We Are On The Edge”, discussing how, if I had to pick only one trade to put on at the time, it would have been getting long volatility, we saw a massive spike in the VIX to end the week on Friday. Here’s how things looked early afternoon on Friday.
In my opinion, Friday’s trading session marks the beginning of a scenario that I have been predicting would unfold for the better part of the last two years. Here’s what I think is playing out.
Friday, we finally saw serious signs of an economy deep in recession emerge in the macroeconomic data, as hiring slowed significantly and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%.
Normally over the last two years, this would have been shrugged off by the market.
However, the tech and AI bubble had already started to burst about three weeks ago, and momentum into the numbers today was bearish instead of bullish.
The news also came after a horrific overnight session in Japan, where stocks plummeted 6% on the back of the BOJ raising rates. Ken Cheung, director of foreign exchange strategy at Mizuho Securities, told CNN:
“The BOJ made a hawkish shift after its surprising 15 (basis point) rate hike. Importantly, the BOJ flagged the inflation upside risks … and left the door open for further rate hikes. ”
And both the jobs number and Japan’s market taking a shit came after a week of escalating tensions in the Middle East, with a direct conflict between Israel and Iran looking more likely.
Source: AP
And now we’re waiting on promised action from Iran and they don’t work during market hours. Which means the 72 hour “break” from trading over the weekend sure seems like a long time.
But the biggest deal about Friday’s trading wasn’t the volatility in stocks; it was that, for the first time in the last two years, it feels like psychology has shifted and confidence has broken. Hell, Friday morning, Elizabeth Warren even took to X and, in a move that does far more harm than good, begged Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
You don’t need to take Game Theory or Human Psychology 101 at Wharton to know that pleading publicly for rate cuts isn’t a tactical solution; instead, it is taking a megaphone and telling the entire world that you are starting to panic.
And panic, as Japan taught us overnight, is contagious.
Think of all the weeks that have gone by with proclamations of a soft landing and a miraculous defeat of inflation while sparing the economy. They look like this:
On this blog, we have long thought these proclamations were nonsense, but now we’re seeing proof. As I have been saying for two years, 5.5% rates on top of the largest debt bubble in history is nothing more than a ticking time bomb making its way through the economy’s plumbing.
And now, at the worst possible time, that bomb is about to blow.
It isn’t just Friday’s move in the market that is making me say this. Macro data related to housing, loan delinquencies, commercial real estate, and personal savings that I have been pointing out all year has continued to support the argument that the American consumer is broke and liquidity has run dry.
And, as I have written in numerous articles over the last year, by the time the Fed moves to cut now, it isn’t going to matter. I’ve said that as we get closer and closer to the first rate cut, I continue to believe that this could be the ultimate “sell the news” event and could mark the beginning of a large correction in equity markets, depending on the Fed’s appetite for massive QE.
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Moving rates from 5.5% to 4.5% in the middle of a market crash — as JP Morgan hurriedly publicly declared would now happen in the middle of the trading day on Friday — when everybody was already expecting those moves to begin with, does nothing. A good way to think about it is this: the market is crashing today with the expectations of rate cuts already baked into the cake.
Now we have officially realized the rock and hard place we have been stuck between for the last two years. In one direction, the Fed has to make massive, decisive, easing moves that will see things like gold and Bitcoin move higher exponentially and will reopen the door to all of the inflationary forces we’ve been fighting over the last two years, like when Walter Peck shut down the power grid in Ghostbusters and released all the spirits back into New York City.
On the other hand, the Fed can clench its teeth and go with the “planned” cut or leave rates where they are, and we can continue to watch Japan’s deflationary shockwave make its way through the U.S. and eventually into our bond market, where something exceptionally large will break — as James Lavish detailed recently on my podcast — potentially creating systemic risk or currency risk.
Either way, there is no going back to the soft landing narrative now. With unemployment at 4.3% and the market in turmoil, the grim reality of needing to pay the piper is starting to rear its ugly head.
As far as my portfolio allocation, nothing really changes too much because this is the scenario that I’ve expected for a while, right down to the fact that gold was rising Friday morning, ostensibly as a hedge against the volatility, and then quickly crashed as it became clear over-leveraged investors needed to raise cash. This sell-off that I predicted would come represents a buying opportunity in gold and miners because, as I have stated repeatedly, the next step from here is likely the Fed trying to jawbone and overshoot the mark with quantitative easing.
The likely scenario short-term, in my opinion, is that the Fed will reiterate its already expected cuts and perhaps move them up timewise. In my opinion, this will not be enough to appease the market since cuts are already expected, and we will see this scenario of a further market drawdown into the Fed rate cut that I’ve been expecting and writing about for a year.
Naturally, as stocks start to sell off, I look for “boring” names to continue to add: namely, defense stocks, consumer staples, utilities, commodities, and things of that nature.
I’ve been saying for two years that you simply can’t raise rates the most in recent history at the fastest pace in recent history on the most debt outstanding in history and not face consequences. With Friday’s action in markets, it has become clear we have started to walk down the path of finding out what those consequences are going to be.
It’s weekends like these that I’m glad my economic education comes from the Austrian school, and I’m not an intern working at Goldman Sachs or doing wealth management for AXA Equitable Advisors. Sometimes it feels like you’re pushing a rock up a hill, but every once in a blue moon, things make a little sense.
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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 12:50 -
- Trump Agrees To Debate Kamala Harris On Fox News With "Full Arena Audience"
Trump Agrees To Debate Kamala Harris On Fox News With “Full Arena Audience”
Let’s get ready to rumble.
US Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump announced late Friday that he will debate Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris in early September, with Fox News set to host the debate event in Pennsylvania.
“I have agreed with FoxNews to debate Kamala Harris on Wednesday, Sept. 4. The Debate was previously scheduled against Sleepy Joe Biden on ABC, but has been terminated in that Biden will no longer be a participant, and I am in litigation against ABC Network and George Slopadopoulos, thereby creating a conflict of interest,” Trump wrote on social media platform Truth Social.
Trump noted, “The FoxNews Debate will be held in the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, at a site in an area to be determined. The Moderators of the Debate will be Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, and the Rules will be similar to the Rules of my Debate with Sleepy Joe, who has been treated horribly by his Party – BUT WITH A FULL ARENA AUDIENCE!….”
Trump continued, “….As everyone knows, the Democrats have Unconstitutionally taken a Candidate, who was acknowledged to be defeated, and unceremoniously replaced him with a new Candidate. This has never been done before, and is a Threat to Democracy, but I am totally prepared to accept the results of this “coup,” and replace Joe on the Debate stage with Crazy Kamala Harris.”
“I spent Hundreds of Millions of Dollars, Time, and Effort fighting Joe, and when I won the Debate, they threw a new Candidate into the ring. Not fair, but it is what it is! Nevertheless, different Candidate or not, their bad Policies are the same, and this will be strongly revealed at the September 4th Debate,” the former president said.
He ended, “I look forward to meeting and debating Kamala Harris on Sept. 4. This date is convenient and appropriate in that it is just prior to the September 6th start of Early Voting in the 2024 Presidential Election. I look forward to seeing everyone on Sept. 4, in the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania!”
AP News quoted VP Harris a little more than a week ago. She said she was “ready” to debate Trump and accused him of backpedaling from a previous debate agreement with ABC for Sept. 10.
The problem with VP Harris, as David Sacks and Elon Musk describe on X, is that when she gets off script – well – it’s disastrous.
The fact that first Joe Biden and now Kamala Harris cannot speak coherently without a teleprompter is not a bug but a feature for the staffers who run the presidency. The Party is more comfortable vesting authority in a politburo than a chief executive.pic.twitter.com/uRvZrTylLR
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) August 2, 2024
Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/03/2024 – 12:15
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