Mar 04

Today’s News 4th March 2023

  • One Year Later In Ukraine: Washington And NATO Got It Very Wrong
    One Year Later In Ukraine: Washington And NATO Got It Very Wrong

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    It’s been a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    In spite of claims from the regime and its media allies that Russia was the next Third Reich and would soon roll through half of Europe, it turns out that was never even remotely true.

    In fact, things have unfolded more or less just like we predicted here at mises.org:

    • the Russians aren’t even close to occupying any place in Europe beyond eastern Ukraine.

    • It’s not Munich 1938. Economic sanctions have not crippled the Russian regime.

    • Most of the world remains ambivalent on the conflict.

    • The conflict will likely end with a negotiated settlement – contrary to what the Washington wants.

    The fact is that in spite of the United States’ and North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) efforts to turn Ukraine into World War III, the war in Ukraine remains a regional conflict. It seems most of the world is uninterested in making sacrifices to carry out US policy in Ukraine and that many see the inherent hypocrisy behind US talk about respecting national sovereignty. 

    There’s also an important lesson here about listening to the war maximalists who incessantly promote full-scale war as the “solution” to every international crisis. The US clearly wants to fight the war to the last Ukrainian, in what the US is packaging as a global crusade in the style of World War II. But, it seems now that more pragmatic thinkers—i.e., the French and the Germans—recognize that negotiations are the more humane solution. 

    They Wanted a “Munich Moment”

    Within days of the Russian invasion, the Western global hegemonists got to work claiming the invasion was essentially a war of global conquest. For instance, Matthew Kroenig in Foreign Policy stated that Vladimir Putin had shown a clear interest in “resurrecting the former Russian Empire, and other vulnerable Eastern European countries—Poland, Romania, or the Baltic states—might be next.” Kroenig immediately concluded that the US’s military budget should be doubled.

    Another writer insisted the Ukraine invasion contained “a whiff of Munich.” John Storey at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute claimed that “the forgotten lesson of Munich” had allowed “Putin is [to do] his best impression of German dictator Adolf Hitler.” Storey ominously asked, “Will the Baltic states and Eastern Europe be next?” dutifully repeating the party line that Russian tanks might soon roll into central Europe.

    Yet the “lesson of Munich”—which is invoked incessantly and certainly not “forgotten”—has never been appropriate for conceptualizing the war in Ukraine. That sort of thing has even led some pundits to proclaim that global nuclear war is “worth it.” The real lesson to be learned here, however, is the lesson of 1914: that we should not allow military alliances to lead major powers into overreactions that lead to global disasters. The “Munich” crowd wanted mass mobilization against Russia in early 2022. They didn’t get it, and thank goodness.

    Russia Was Never a Global Threat

    It has been clear from the very beginning that Russia has never had the capability to sustain an occupation of any areas that do not already contain a sizable number of ethnic Russians or Russian sympathizers. This hardly mirrors the military capabilities of the Third Reich. Thus, it is not surprising that Russia’s occupation endures only in southeastern Ukraine and the Crimea. At this point, Russia is attempting to push the frontiers of its occupation zone as deeply as possible into areas with a sizable Russian minority. Even this has proven difficult for the Russian regime. Russia simply lacks the resources to take on anyone but its impoverished neighbors. 

    What’s more, bogging down Russia has required only a tiny portion of the war-making resources available to the NATO coalition. Europe’s NATO members have mostly pledged older weapons, and precious little state-of-the art equipment. The Washington Post recently noted, for example, that the West “is still short on pledges.” Recent promises of Leopard tanks from Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands turned out to be promises of “refurbished” tanks that are more than forty years old. Moreover, none of these tanks will even arrive before this summer. As of late November, contributions of military aid from Germany, the United Kingdom, and France combined totaled a paltry €5 billion. That’s 6.00 percent the size of Russia’s military budget, and a miniscule 0.05 percent of the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $10 trillion that comes out of the UK, Germany, and France combined. But what of US military aid? Surely a huge amount is needed to counter the Russian juggernaut? Well, the US military aid totals no more than $50 billion as of early 2023. That’s 6.00 percent of the US military budget, and it’s 0.20 percent of the US’s GDP.  In addition to this, the US regime now admits it doesn’t even know what happens to the weapons it sends to Ukraine. How much of that $50 billion actually goes to Ukraine’s defense? Not $50 billion. 

    If that’s all it takes to keep Russia slogging it out in eastern Ukraine, it’s hard to see how the Russian regime poses an existential threat to even western Ukraine, let alone any other state in Europe. This helps illustrate how unnecessary the US is to the conflict. Russia poses no threat to the US—unless the US escalates to the point of nuclear war. If the Europeans feel threatened, they can easily defend themselves given the huge size of their economic bloc, relative to Russia. The Europeans have more than enough resources to “stand with Ukraine” however they wish to define that. Yes, that might require Europeans to give up a bit of their government pensions and enormous welfare states in order to fund their own military defense. But there’s absolutely no reason why American taxpayers need be on the hook to subsidize Europeans as they’re swilling cappuccinos on month-long vacations.

    The World Is Not United against Russia

    Perhaps seeing that Russia presents no conventional military threat beyond its “near abroad,” most of the world has not signed off on starting a new cold war. Although NATO mouthpieces have been enthusiastic about the passage of United Nations resolutions condemning Russia, it’s notable how many countries chose to abstain from the vote. Last week, the UN general assembly voted again on a resolution condemning the Russian invasion and calling for Russia’s withdrawal. One hundred forty-one countries voted in favor, but, notably, thirty-two countries abstained from voting (seven states voted against the measure). Among those thirty-two countries were China, India, Pakistan, and South Africa. India, a US ally and the “world’s largest democracy,” was apparently uninterested in joining NATO on the resolution. South Africa, another major world economy and democracy, stayed out of the matter as well. In fact, the only member of the BRICS bloc to vote in favor of the resolution was Brazil.

    This has partly been driven by practical matters. The political leadership in these countries is simply not prepared to impoverish its population in order to please Washington. But the resistance also comes from the fact that most of the world knows US pretensions toward respecting national sovereignty and international law are all an act. The US invasions and bombing campaigns against Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria have made it clear the United States is perfectly at ease with violating national sovereignty when it suits US ambitions. The so-called rules-based international order obviously means nothing to the US when it becomes inconvenient to Washington. (It should also be noted the Ukraine regime supported invading Iraq and sent at least five thousand troops to help the US occupy that supposedly sovereign nation.)

    What does this all mean for Russia? It means that some of the world’s largest economies have signaled they have no plans to cut Russia off from the global economy and that they refuse to cut themselves off from Russian oil, gas, and foodstuffs.

    Sanctions Didn’t Ruin Russia

    The US has been unsuccessful in securing global compliance in isolating Russia economically. Thus, the US has been forced to rely on coercive sanctions—not just against Russia, but against those who choose to keep doing business with Russia. The US must now spend time and resources enforcing “secondary sanctions” designed to coerce countries that don’t play along, and now finds itself in the position of repeatedly threatening countries other than Russia with “consequences” for violating US sanctions.

    But, for all the US bluster on this, US sanctions have clearly failed to ruin Russia economically. Recent numbers show that the US oil sanctions against Russia “have done little to curb the flow of Russia’s crude.” Or as this article as CNBC suggests, the oil sanctions “failed completely.”

    This isn’t to say that the sanctions have had no effect. Yet it is clear that the sanctions—the harshest sanctions used since World War II—are not a “game-changer.”

    Instead, the sanctions have created additional motivation for states to find ways to get around US sanctions in the future. As Agathe Demarais notes in Foreign Policy:

    Russia, Iran, China, and other countries at odds with the United States are doubling down on efforts to vaccinate their economies against sanctions. These measures have little to do with sanctions circumvention: Instead, they represent preemptive steps to render potential financial sanctions entirely ineffective. Such mechanisms include de-dollarization efforts, the development of alternatives to SWIFT (the Belgian cooperative that connects all banks across the world), and the creation of central bank digital currencies.

    That reference to “other countries” is key. The more the US employs its financial power as a weapon against other regimes, the further this will push the world’s regimes to find ways to break free of the US-centered financial world. Those efforts will put downward pressure on the dollar in coming years.

    “Unconditional Surrender” was Never an Option

    The US has generally saved its “regime change” rhetoric for small, dirt-poor countries that are unable to fight back. Yet, following the Russian invasion, many Western commentators began calling for regime change in Russia as well. Most notably, on March 26, President Joe Biden said Putin “cannot remain in power,” although he was later forced to backtrack. Not only are the prospects for regime change in a nuclear-armed country fraught with immense danger, but many observers recognize the fact that toppling Putin is easier said than done. Nor would such a move guarantee that Putin’s regime would be replaced with a regime opposed to Russian expansionism. In fact, the new government could easily be “worse” by NATO standards.

    This is a hard pill to swallow for Americans who are wed to a long-standing obsession with “unconditional surrender” in every military conflict. The model here is the Japanese surrender in the Second World War. The reality, however, is that the overwhelming majority of military conflicts are ended through negotiated settlements.

    Nevertheless, throughout the first half of 2022, those who called for negotiations to end the war—for purposes of ending the bloodshed sooner—were branded Russian apologists. Only total victory, we were told, was an acceptable outcome.

    Those days are swiftly coming to a close. “Total victory” for Ukraine, defined as the total withdrawal of Russia, was never likely. The reality is more along the lines of what French diplomats are privately willing to admit. As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, French and German leaders are now telling the Ukrainian regime that it needs to consider peace talks:

    “We keep repeating that Russia mustn’t win, but what does that mean? If the war goes on for long enough with this intensity, Ukraine’s losses will become unbearable,” a senior French official said. “And no one believes they will be able to retrieve Crimea.”

    Gen. Petr Pavel, president-elect of the Czech Republic and a former NATO commander, said at the Munich conference [last week]: “We may end up in a situation where liberating some parts of Ukrainian territory may deliver more loss of lives than will be bearable by society. . . . There might be a point when Ukrainians can start thinking about another outcome.”

    The endgame is coming into view, and it’s a negotiated settlement. Unfortunately, it’s a settlement that will come only after an immense loss of life for both Ukrainians and Russians, and at the price of enormous loss of capital and infrastructure. A settlement could have likely been achieved sooner, and with the same territorial losses in Ukraine that likely would have resulted in any case. The US could have given up its obsession with making Ukraine a NATO outpost. The Ukraine regime could have given up trying to turn Ukraine into an ethno-state where Russian-speakers are second-class citizens. The US and Ukraine could have admitted they’re not getting Crimea back.  Instead, they chose to prolong the conflict, and the result has been perhaps hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths. The fact that the Russian regime is ultimately the aggressor here does not change this reality.  Being a small, poor country next to Russia has always been just an unfortunate reality for some. Thus, responsible foreign policy for those states lies in taking positions that limit unnecessary bloodshed while finding ways to co-exist with the Russians. Instead, the US and Ukraine have chosen to wax philosophical about moral rectitude while NATO leaders recite their bullet points on regime change, total victory, Munich, and a “rules-based order.” None of this helps save lives. 

    Those who promoted a need for full-scale war and “no peace until total victory”  have been stunningly wrong, and it has proven to be very costly.

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    Read More:

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 23:40

  • GOP Congressman Introduces Bill To 'Dismantle ATF's Record Keeping' Of Gun Purchases
    GOP Congressman Introduces Bill To ‘Dismantle ATF’s Record Keeping’ Of Gun Purchases

    Rep. Michael Cloud (R-TX) reintroduced a bill which would require the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to destroy firearm purchase records in their database.

    The bill, No Retaining Every Gun In a System That Restrictts Your Rights (No REGISTRY), comes amid an agency crackdown on gun stores, Fox News reports.

    The bill would also require that gun stores which are closing down to destroy their purchase records, preventing the ATF from obtaining them.

    “The Second Amendment is clear: the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed,” said Cloud in a press release. “The Federal Government does not have the right to subject its law-abiding, citizen firearm owners to excessive scrutiny.”

    “My bill would dismantle ATF’s record keeping, restore privacy for American gun owners, and reverse the groundwork laid for the creation of a federal firearms registry.”

    According to Gun Owners of America director of federal affairs, the ATF “has no business maintaining nearly a billion gun and gun owner records in a digital, searchable database.”

    “ATF’s recordkeeping authority has been weaponized and all statutory protections against the creation of a gun registry have been maliciously circumvented,” he added in a statement to Fox News Digital.

    “Gun Owners of America proudly supports Rep. Michael Cloud’s No REGISTRY Rights Act to rein in this rogue agency and completely eliminate ATF’s unconstitutional gun registry,” he continued.

    Additionally, Cloud’s bill is backed by GOA, the National Rifle Association (NRA), and the Firearms Regulatory Accountability Coalition (FRAC).

    With a Republican-controlled House, the bill could make it to the floor for a full vote. Getting through the Senate will be harder, though.

    But if the bill does make it through the upper chamber, it will go to President Biden’s desk where he could choose to veto it.

    Cloud’s bill comes as the ATF cracks down on gun stores across America.

    Last month, Fox News Digital exclusively obtained the ATF’s federal firearms licensee (FFL) inspection guidance from January 2022 that makes it easier to revoke gun stores’ federal licenses. -Fox News

    In January of 2022, the ATF updated its federal firearms license (FFL) inspection guidance which makes it easier to revoke a gun store’s federal licensing. It states that the agency “has zero tolerance for willful violations that greatly affect public safety and ATF’s ability to trace firearms recovered in violent crimes,” and that “revocation” of the FFL’s license “is the assumed action” when it comes to violations.

    When this happens, the shop is likely to close down, and can be required to send its gun purchase records – which are currently required to be kept indefinitely, directly to the ATF.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 23:20

  • New Biden Cyber Strategy Takes Aim At China As 'Most Persistent Threat'
    New Biden Cyber Strategy Takes Aim At China As ‘Most Persistent Threat’

    Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Biden administration’s new cybersecurity strategy takes aim at China’s communist regime and other authoritarian powers for subverting the international order through malign cyber activity.

    President Joe Biden gives remarks before the start of a meeting with governors visiting from states around the country in the East Room of the White House in Washington on Feb. 10, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    The 2023 National Cyber Strategy, released on March 2, says that communist China and other regimes are attempting to export their own forms of authoritarianism through the use of technology.

    “The governments of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other autocratic states with revisionist intent are aggressively using advanced cyber capabilities to pursue objectives that run counter to our interests and broadly accepted international norms,” the strategy states.

    “Their reckless disregard for the rule of law and human rights in cyberspace is threatening U.S. national security and economic prosperity.”

    China in particular is threatening U.S. interests and dominating emerging technologies critical to global development with the intent of reshaping the world order, the document states.

    “[China] now presents the broadest, most active, and most persistent threat to both government and private sector networks and is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so.”

    “Having successfully harnessed the Internet as the backbone of its surveillance state and influence capabilities, [China] is exporting its vision of digital authoritarianism, striving to shape the global Internet in its image and imperiling human rights beyond its borders.”

    Whole-of-Government Approach to Counter China

    Given the threat posed by authoritarian powers like the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the strategy outlines an aggressive posture that the administration seeks to take defending the United States and its interests from foreign interference.

    This new posture, according to the strategy, will integrate cyber, diplomatic, military, intelligence, law enforcement, and other capabilities to target threat actors and remove them from play.

    “The United States will use all instruments of national power to disrupt and dismantle threat actors whose actions threaten our interests,” the strategy states.

    “These efforts may integrate diplomatic, information, military (both kinetic and cyber), financial, intelligence, and law enforcement capabilities.”

    Such integration will bring the United States’ cyber security strategy to more closely resemble the whole-of-society approach being implemented by China and other powers.

    The purpose of such an expansive and integrated system, the document says, is to ensure that malign actors are “incapable of mounting sustained cyber-enabled campaigns that would threaten the national security or public safety of the United States.”

    Likewise, the strategy seeks to expand the role of the federal government in other ways, including by taking a more assertive role in directing the market by federalizing some spending and increasing security regulations and liability laws.

    The approach will focus on “shifting the burden for cybersecurity away from individuals, small businesses, and local governments,” the strategy states, as market forces are “inadequate” to impose the necessary costs on entities that introduce vulnerable products into the digital ecosystem.

    ‘Fundamental Changes’ to Digital Ecosystem

    By making the digital ecosystem more “defensible,” “resilient,” and “values-aligned,” the strategy states, the United States can better defend itself and its partners while also offering an alternative to the authoritarian model of technological governance offered by regimes like the CCP.

    To that end, the strategy is deliberately crafted as an evolution of the cyber framework first established by the Trump administration’s strategy in 2018 and “continues momentum on many of its priorities, including the collaborative defense of the digital ecosystem.”

    As such, the strategy seeks to take a more aggressive stance on cyber threats to national security, and will now classify ransomware attacks as national security threats as opposed to mere criminal challenges, paving the way for a greater range of responses to such threats, including through coordination with international partners.

    The strategy will likewise make fundamental changes to the minimum security requirements for technologies and systems used by vital sectors such as oil and natural gas pipelines, aviation, railways, and water systems.

    Moreover, by leveraging international coalitions and partnerships among like-minded nations and working with allies on shared standards of security, reliability, and privacy, the strategy says, the United States can effectively counter the CCP and other malign actors while promoting a more free technosphere.

    “We must make fundamental changes to the underlying dynamics of the digital ecosystem, shifting the advantage to its defenders and perpetually frustrating the forces that would threaten it,” the strategy states.

    “People and technology are increasingly linked, further enabling the very best, as well as the worst, of humanity.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 23:00

  • LA Elites Spend $150,000 For Protection Dogs As Crime Fears Worsen
    LA Elites Spend $150,000 For Protection Dogs As Crime Fears Worsen

    Los Angeles’ wealthiest residents are purchasing protection dogs that cost as much as a slightly used Mercedes G-Wagon over concerns of out-of-control violent crime and the growing homelessness crisis. 

    Los Angeles Times said protection dogs — typically German shepherds, Belgian Malinois, Dobermans, Cane Corso, or a mix of those breeds — are being sold by Delta K9 Academy in North Hollywood for as much as $70,000. Some trainers are selling dogs for upwards of $150,000.  

    LA Times spoke with Arteom Bulgadarian, the president of an aerospace manufacturing company, who lives in a multi-million dollar home in Sherman Oaks. He owns several guns and recently had his home wired with surveillance cameras but felt that security layer wasn’t enough. 

    So Bulgadarian contacted Delta K9 and bought a $70,000 2.5-year-old German shepherd bred as an elite protection dog. First, the dog is a family pet but is highly trained to guard the home. 

    “What’s the price that you would put for your family’s security, especially when that particular house has been burglarized?

    “Seventy-thousand dollars — you amortize it over 10 to 15 years, whatever the dog’s life is, and it’s not that big of a price tag,” he said.

    The recent 8% surge in violent crime in LA coincides with the tenure of George Gascon, the ‘woke’ district attorney, who has allegedly emboldened criminals and sparked great anxiety among homeowners, rich and poor. There have been surges in burglaries and property crime, smash-and-grab thefts, and home robberies, leaving some to believe Los Angeles is transforming into a third-world country. 

    Mike Israeli breeds, trains and sells protection dogs for up to $70,000 at Delta K9 Academy in North Hollywood. Source: (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

    “Every celebrity client, at one time or another, and billionaire has said to me these exact words: ‘What about a dog?'” Kris Herzog, owner of the Bodyguard Group of Beverly Hills. Herzog said his firm connects customers with security service firms that sell protection dogs for $55,000. He added, “A dog is always my recommendation if you’re not going to have a gun in the house.” 

    LA Times spoke with luxury real estate agent Branden Williams who said elites in Beverly Hills are buying protection dogs. 

    One breeder told the local paper:

    “To be very blunt, our dogs that were born in 2022 are being sold at a price of $150,000… It’s a coveted product.”

    Protection dogs are booming as law and order cracks in metro areas. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 22:40

  • Power Shortages Coming Soon To America
    Power Shortages Coming Soon To America

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Existing power plants are projected to retire at a faster pace than installations of new units, and dependence on renewable projects are threatening widespread power shortages, according to a new report by regional power transmission company PJM Interconnection.

    The US and Texas flags fly in front of high-voltage transmission towers in Houston, Texas, on Feb. 21, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    PJM analysis shows that 40 gigawatts (GW) of existing power generation is at risk of retirement by 2030, accounting for 21 percent of its current installed capacity. Meanwhile, 290 GW worth of new power supply is seeking to connect to PJM’s grid. But 94 percent of this power supply is made up of renewable energy projects that tend to only have a completion rate of 5 percent. This casts doubt on the ability of new power supply to replace old supply. PJM covers 13 eastern states and the District of Columbia.

    PJM also forecasts power demand growth of 1.4 percent annually over the next decade. Certain individual zones might even show demand growth as high as 7 percent per year due to the expansion of clusters of data centers as well as overall electrification.

    The retirement of existing power generation combined with the growing demand for power will create a supply gap.

    According to the report, the pace of new power generation addition will likely be “insufficient” to fill this supply gap by 2030. As such, the completion rates of upcoming projects will have to “increase significantly” to maintain necessary reserve margins, it said.

    Decline in Reserve Margins

    Reserve margin refers to the amount of unused available power capacity of an electric power system. A reserve margin of 10 percent would mean that an entity has excess capacity amounting to 10 percent of peak demand.

    According to PJM projections, the reserve margin could fall from 26 percent in 2023 to 15 percent by 2030 even in the best-case scenario. Reserve margins are critical during times of adverse weather conditions and periods of high demand. A decline suggests less reliability of power.

    “The lopsided energy transition is resulting mainly from Biden’s energy policies and state mandates driving fossil fuel generation to shut down as renewable and storage projects are being developed. These are policy choices by political leaders and utilities are responding as directed,” stated a Mar. 2nd analysis of the PJM report by the Institute for Energy Research (IER).

    Since PJM usually generates a power surplus owing to its large fossil-fuel generation sources, the entity sells excess power to neighboring grids. As such, the retirement of 21 percent of the current installed capacity by 2030 might potentially affect the power situation in these regions as well, it stated.

    Renewable Agenda Effects

    In an article at The Epoch Times on Jan. 12, Kevin Stocklin, a film producer who made the documentary “The Shadow State,” which investigated the environmental, social, governance (ESG) industry, warned that government policies are pushing more Americans onto the U.S. grid at a time when the grid is becoming “increasingly unstable” due to climate change agenda.

    The federal government is providing subsidies for electric vehicles and even contemplating banning gas stoves. Several state governments are passing laws limiting the use of oil and gas while constructing new homes while some have set dates when gasoline-powered cars would be banned.

    In the corporate space, the ESG movement is pressuring companies to adhere to a zero-emissions agenda, he pointed out.

    “All of this makes Americans more dependent on the electric grid at a time when utilities are accelerating the closure of coal and gas-fired plants, leaving the grid increasingly reliant on intermittent wind and solar power. This has sparked warnings from utility infrastructure experts that America’s dash toward renewables could be driving our electric grid toward instability,” Stocklin writes.

    In its 10-year outlook (pdf) analyzing the impact on energy reliability during the energy transition phase, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which seeks to ensure the reliability of bulk power systems in the region, warned of a “high risk of shortfall” in energy during peak conditions in some areas of America.

    The Indiana-based Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc. is projecting a shortfall of 1,300 megawatts this summer that will continue to grow over the next 10 years as coal, nuclear, and natural gas generation “retire faster than replacement resources are connecting.”

    If the current power situation is not analyzed properly, and inadequate politically driven policies are adopted, the United States could soon be heading in a similar direction like that of Europe. Homemade bad decisions one after the other created a crisis that was partially averted due to favorable weather this year.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 22:20

  • Shocking Baltimore Footage Shows Pursuit, Crash, Building Collapse
    Shocking Baltimore Footage Shows Pursuit, Crash, Building Collapse

    A shocking new video shows a stolen car barreling down a Baltimore City street, striking a vehicle in an intersection, killing a pedestrian, then smashing into a rowhome causing the structure to collapse.

    On Thursday, the Maryland Office of Attorney General (OAG) released the jaw-dropping footage which occurred on Feb. 8 in East Baltimore. The incident happened on North Avenue and North Wolfe Street, an area plagued with lawlessness, one of the highest per capita homicide rates in the country, an opioid crisis that is off the charts, and hundreds, if not thousands, of abandoned homes. Some compare this part of town to a warzone. 

    When the stolen Hyundai hit another vehicle at the intersection, both cars were flung into the building. A nearby pedestrian was hit by one of the cars and was buried by falling rubble. He was pronounced dead on the scene. Five other people were injured, including two in the stolen car. 

    OAG released surveillance footage of the intersection. 

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    The agency also released body camera footage. 

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    This is another glimpse into Baltimore City, which continues to descend into chaos. The acceleration has been over eight years, beginning with riots in 2015. Also, years of a progressive district attorney and failed Democrat mayors have let criminals back onto the streets. 

    The crime-infested metro area, run by Democrats, had its first big wakeup call earlier this week when Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot lost her election over concerns about violent crime. 

    “When you have an incumbent lose it should be a wakeup call, and it should be a wakeup call to Mayor Scott [mayor of Baltimore] because she lost for many of the reasons people are frustrated in Baltimore,” John Dedie, a local political analyst, told Fox Baltimore. 

    Meanwhile, Baltimore City’s population collapsed to the lowest level in a century. Smart residents aren’t sticking around and moving to the county or elsewhere as the liberal-controlled metro area implodes. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 22:00

  • Victor Davis Hanson: The Woke Wrecking Machine
    Victor Davis Hanson: The Woke Wrecking Machine

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

    Almost everything that has followed from the woke mass hysteria gripping the nation since 2020 has proved disastrous. 

    Wokeism destroys meritocracy in favor of forced equality of result – history’s prescription for civilizational decline. 

    If we continue with the woke hiring of administrators, air traffic controllers, ground crews, pilots, and rail workers, there will be even more news of disasters and near-miss airline crashes. 

    Wokeness demands a McCarthyite suppression of free expression. No wonder a woke FBI recently hired out social media censors to suppress stories it deemed unhelpful. 

    Soviet-style, wokeism mandates strict ideological party-line narratives under the cover of “science.” No wonder a woke government lied that requiring vaccines would prevent both infection and infectiousness. 

    Woke substitutes race for class in its eternal neo-Marxist quest to divide permanently the nation along racial lines, between victims and victimizers. 

    Yet wokeism recently has embarrassed itself as never before. 

    Take the COVID pandemic. 

    The Department of Energy has joined the FBI and is now attributing the origins of the pandemic to a leak of a likely engineered virus from the top-security virology lab in Wuhan, China. 

    Wokesters had long suppressed that reality, demonizing any who rejected its orthodox lies and spoke a larger truth: A dystopic China is not our global partner in greening the planet. Criticizing Stalinist China is not “racist.” China is not building a progressive society that is a model for others. 

    The ongoing environmental catastrophe in East Palestine, Ohio, following the train derailment revealed more woke moral bankruptcy. 

    Ostensibly the ensuing toxic spill and noxious plume have poisoned a poor and working-class small town. It should have galvanized the old Democratic Party that once voiced loud support for all green causes and championed the lower American classes. 

    But woke ended all that—substituting racial chauvinism for class concerns and ideology for genuine worry over the environment. 

    Woke dogma mandates that pollution and poverty are no longer concerns—if they affect the white poor who are stereotyped collectively as privileged victimizers. 

    Wokesters insisted that California is the greatest casualty of “climate change” defined as permanent drought.

    Purported climate change required radical new bureaucratic rules and antidemocratic mandates over irrigation supplies, ground water, and contracted water deliveries from public reservoirs.

    But then it rained. And it snowed. And it became terribly cold in supposedly scorching California. 

    Southern California is blanketed in snow. 

    Even so, for much of this cold, wet winter, state officials continued to claim the man-made drought was in full force. But finally, the most recent frigid, wet weather strangled the woke drought—and with it the credibility of our climate change Cassandras. 

    Americans sympathize with Ukraine’s plight as Vladimir Putin seeks to destroy its autonomy. But woke brooked no deviation from the party line that Ukraine’s Volodomyr Zelenskyy is a saint, while Russia is near bankrupt due to sanctions, and doomed to lose the war. 

    Accordingly, the United States was obligated to give Ukraine a veritable blank check given Kyiv’s commitment to freedom. Zelenskyy’s team now even talks of a victorious Ukrainian armored counteroffensive into Moscow’s Red Square. 

    This week, however, we are learning the Russian economy is nearly as strong now as it was before the war. It has mobilized 700,000 troops to ensure that eastern Ukraine becomes a Verdun-like killing field where tens of thousands more will be ground up. 

    Ukraine bars dissidents and maintains a government media monopoly. And the more Joe Biden promises another $2-3 billion in biweekly aid, the more Zelenskyy acts as if it is a pittance given what supposedly stingy Americans should be capable of supplying. 

    Meanwhile, at home, new woke protocols mandate race as essential rather than incidental to the human experience. Supposedly such fixations will heal racial wounds. 

    Under the new reparatory and compensatory diversity, equity, and inclusion rules, those deemed non-white were to be hired and admitted to colleges in greater numbers than their demographics. Even the old mandated proportional representation quotas were no longer enough. 

    But racial chauvinism, nonstop talk of reparations, and the new campus segregation have not resulted in better racial relations. 

    Polls show that there are greater racial tensions than ever before. 

    Data on interracial and hate crimes show even sharper racial disproportionalities. The incidence of both black violent criminal perpetrators and black crime victims are near historical highs. 

    Woke policies of no cash bail, downgrading felonies, and no jail time only spiked violent lawlessness. 

    Our elite universities are now fully woke. Almost weekly an embarrassing story further erodes their credibility and reputation. 

    Ridiculous lists of  taboo words are issued on woke campuses, barring incendiary words like “American” and “immigrant.” 

    Bragging of segregated dorms, graduations, and safe spaces recalls Jim Crow, not woke racial utopias. 

    Grades and standards are deemed counterrevolutionary, even as incompetent graduates increasingly fail to impress employers. 

    Someday wokeism will disappear because it is inherently nihilistic and cannibalistic. 

    But in the meantime, Americans should end it now before it ends America first.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 21:40

  • Biden Vows To Ban So-Called Assault Weapons 'Come Hell Or High Water'
    Biden Vows To Ban So-Called Assault Weapons ‘Come Hell Or High Water’

    President Biden on Wednesday said he’ll ban so-called ‘assault weapons’ and high-capacity magazines “come hell or high water” (thus ensuring that criminals are the only ones who have them).

    “I know it may make some of you uncomfortable, but that little state above me, Delaware is one of them, has the highest rate, one of the highest rates of gun ownership,” Biden said at the House Democratic Caucus Issues in Baltimore, Maryland on Wednesday night.

    “But guess what? We’re going to ban assault weapons again come hell or high water and high capacity magazines. When we did it last time to reduce mass deaths,” Biden said.

    Last month the Biden DOJ announced that it would give $231 million to states to be used for crisis intervention, one day after a mass shooting at Michigan State University in East Lansing.

    “These awards will support the kinds of crisis intervention programs that we know save lives and help protect children, families, and communities across the country from senseless acts of gun violence,” said Attorney General Merrick Garland.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 21:20

  • Russia Reducing Dollar Dependence By Relying On Chinese Yuan
    Russia Reducing Dollar Dependence By Relying On Chinese Yuan

    Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

    Russia is easing its dependence on the U.S. dollar and quickly growing reliant on the Chinese yuan, which could turn out to be either a boon for Moscow or a substantial risk, experts warn.

    Over the last year, the Russian economy has been restricted from Western financial networks and has faced economic and political sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia has also been prohibited from using the U.S. dollar, forcing the Kremlin to turn to the Chinese yuan as an alternative.

    President Vladimir Putin has expanded his country’s relations with Beijing, particularly on the energy front.

    Russia’s Exports to Beijing

    “According to the results of this year, Russia has become one of the leaders in oil exports to China,” Putin said at the beginning of a video conference with Chinese President Xi Jinping in December.

    Russia’s exports of discounted crude and fuel oil to China surged to record levels in January, topping the previous high established in April 2020. According to data intelligence firm Kpler, crude and fuel oil flows to China increased to 1.66 million barrels per day to kick off 2023. With the world’s second-largest economy reopening its markets after abandoning its COVID-Zero strategy, market experts anticipate that the energy trade could grow at a far more significant pace.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, on Feb. 4, 2022. (Sputnik/Aleksey Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters)

    But while Russia is using the revenues from its sales of discounted energy products to China to fund its war in Ukraine, Beijing benefits in many ways.

    The first is the $13-a-barrel savings on Russian Urals, which presently trade at around $60 per barrel.

    The second is that another significant market is relying on the Chinese yuan.

    Data compiled by The Wall Street Journal show that domestic energy exporters are being paid in yuan. The nation’s sovereign wealth fund, which is a war chest to ensure the Kremlin pays its bills, is utilizing the yuan to maintain its oil-driven revenues. Last summer, major companies, such as aluminum king Rusal, energy giant Rosneft, and lending firm Bistrodengi, began issuing yuan-denominated bonds inside Russia. In addition, a growing number of companies are borrowing capital in yuan, while households have deposited approximately $6 billion worth of Chinese currency in Russian banks.

    With the ruble under attack by the international community and broader discussions about the end of the dollar hegemony, many consumers turned to the yuan for shelter.

    Although dollars and euros still account for most of the Russian export settlements, the prevalence of payments in the yuan and even the ruble is increasing.

    Sanctions on Russia

    Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance announced in February that it would sell more than 5 percent of its yuan stockpile. The Russian government is drawing down from its reserves to cover a budget shortfall driven by a 46 percent year-over-year decline in energy revenues in January.

    Western governments have imposed tighter sanctions on Russia’s petroleum exports, while crude oil prices have slumped on global recession fears and central bank policy tightening. The Urals crude blend is down about 30 percent from a year ago.

    Despite the latest developments, some estimates suggest that drawing down from its yuan reserves could allow Russia to cover its fiscal holes for as long as three years.

    For now, this might be the only option for Putin and Russia. But observers warn that this could have ramifications for Moscow.

    “Russia is swapping its dollar dependence for reliance on the yuan. Should relations with China deteriorate, Russia may face reserve losses and payment disruptions,” wrote Alexandra Prokopenko, an independent analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    At the same time, Putin may be attempting to improve the ruble’s standing and circumvent Western sanctions by rolling out a digital ruble in April. The Bank of Russia will be working with 13 financial institutions and pre-selected businesses to participate in a central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot project, local news media reported.

    Officials say that Moscow is exploring a new digital format for international settlements as part of broader efforts to manufacture a new financial and monetary system for the post-invasion economy.

    Rise of the Yuan

    Russia’s yuan utilization could be considered progress for China’s greater objective of expanding the yuan’s reach in cross-border commerce.

    In addition to Russia embracing the Chinese currency, more countries are considering settling their trade with China in yuan.

    The Iraqi government confirmed to Reuters that it is taking steps to permit trade from China to be settled directly in yuan amid the nation’s U.S. dollar shortage.

    “It is the first time imports would be financed from China in yuan, as Iraqi imports from China have been financed in [U.S.] dollars only,” said Mudhir Salih, the government’s economic adviser.

    Last year, The Wall Street Journal published a report that stated Saudi Arabia had been considering accepting yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales.

    Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum in January, a Saudi official revealed that the Kingdom is open to discussing trade in currencies other than the greenback.

    “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the U.S. dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said. “I don’t think we are waving away or ruling out any discussion that will help improve the trade around the world.”

    The United Arab Emirates has bolstered bilateral commerce with China, with trade topping $75 billion in 2021.

    This has experts wondering if the Middle East is preparing for a collapse of the petrodollar and is bracing for the rise of the petroyuan.

    “China has shifted its investments into the Gulf. The level of project-based, economic, and military cooperation is surpassing cooperation with the U.S. on many levels, and trade is likewise being reoriented toward China from a balance towards a preferred system,” Irina Tsukerman, a geopolitical analyst and the president of security advisory firm Scarab Rising, told The Epoch Times.

    New Basket Reserve Currency

    But China is even planting a presence in South America after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced last month that it signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on establishing yuan clearing arrangements in Brazil.

    Trade between the two nations totaled $172 billion last year.

    However, in June 2022, Putin announced that BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) members were designing a new basket reserve currency that would attempt to undermine the dollar’s dominance. This could be a more realistic option in the intensifying worldwide de-dollarization campaign, Tsukerman says.

    “A mixture of BRICS currencies is a more likely candidate for de-dollarization than the Chinese yuan by itself due to inherent weaknesses in the yuan and China’s own economy. Most countries simply do not see the yuan as reliable enough to make the switch,” she stated.

    ING global head of markets Chris Turner stated in a note that this is likely to “address the perceived U.S.-hegemony of the IMF,” adding that it would “allow BRICS to build their own sphere of influence and unit of currency within that sphere.”

    But Nouriel Roubini, the chief economist at Atlas Capital Team, suggests that the global financial system will grapple with a “bipolar” currency regime that “will eventually replace the unipolar one.”

    Writing in a Financial Times column last month, Roubini purported that the international economy is being fractured by American and Chinese influence. Although some experts aver that China’s rigid currency controls would prevent the yuan from ever surpassing the buck, Roubini believes the U.S. maintains its own unattractive features “among foes and relative friends.”

    “These include financial sanctions against its rivals, restrictions to inward investment in many national security-sensitive sectors and firms, and even secondary sanctions against friends who violate the primary ones,” Roubini wrote.

    According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), the yuan’s share of total foreign exchange reserves tumbled more than 7 percent year-over-year in the third quarter to below $298 billion. By comparison, the U.S. dollar representation also declined about 9 percent to $6.441 trillion.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 21:00

  • EPA Head Admits Kids Should Be Nowhere Near East Palestine Water
    EPA Head Admits Kids Should Be Nowhere Near East Palestine Water

    The aftermath of the freight train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, persists, with residents and rail workers reporting illnesses and the Biden administration facing criticism regarding an inadequate federal response. The 38-car derailment occurred one month ago and resulted in the release of vinyl chloride into the air via a controlled burn, and questions swirl about why testing for dioxins wasn’t conducted immediately after the derailment.

    Earlier this week, EPA Administrator Michael Regan visited East Palestine. He addressed reporters about the ongoing situation. Journalist Nick Sorter asked the commissioner:

    “Mr. Commissioner, let me ask you really quick, would you allow your children to touch the water? We’ve seen the rainbow sheen, we’ve seen all of these chemicals popping up from the bottom of the streams that these kids used to play in. Would you allow your kids anywhere close to these streams right now?”

    Regan’s response:

    “I would not. I’m a father of a 9-year-old. I think we have to all agree we wish this accident didn’t occur, but the accident occurred and as a result some of our creeks and streams have pollution in them.”

    Here’s the video:

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    On Thursday, environmental activist Erin Brockovich returned to East Palestine for the second time in less than a week. She met with people experiencing health issues after last month’s train derailment. 

    “I have been on a lot of environmental situations, and I have never seen anything in my life be so mismanaged ever,” Brockovich said.

    During last night’s public meeting, about 200 residents showed up in the high school auditorium. Frustration quickly erupted when EPA regional administrator Debra Shore told residents:

    “EPA monitors have not detected any volatile organic compounds above levels of health concerns in the community that are attributable to the train derailment.” 

    The situation worsened when Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw was a no-show again to the public meeting. Instead, Darrell Wilson, an official with Norfolk Southern, attended the meeting. He told concerned residents:

    “We’re ready to start tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. … That is not our decision to make. We are no longer in control of the site.

    “We’re going to do the right thing. We’re going to do the right thing. We’re going to clean up the site. We’re going to clean up the site.”

    While Wilson was speaking, a woman in the crowd yelled:

    “You should have done it right the first time.”

    Another woman told local news WKBN that she experiences headaches inside her home and cannot sell her property due to fears that the next owner’s children may develop cancer. Other residents shared a similar story. 

    Despite residents and workers in the town getting sick and animals dying at surrounding state parks, the EPA only decided on Thursday to enforce Norfolk Southern to test the area for dioxins. 

    It is possible that both the EPA and Norfolk Southern understand the dissipation of dioxins over time, which could be the reason behind the one-month delay in testing for dioxins.

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    In an op-ed on The Guardian, Stephen Lester, a toxicologist and the science director of the Center for Health, Environment & Justice, a project of the People’s Action Institute, wrote, “Here’s the real reason the EPA doesn’t want to test for toxins in East Palestine.”

    The decision to release and burn five tanker cars of vinyl chloride and other chemicals at the site of a 38-car derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, just over three weeks ago unleashed a gigantic cloud full of particulates that enveloped surrounding neighborhoods and farms in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    It is well documented that burning chlorinated chemicals like vinyl chloride will generate dioxins. “Dioxin” is the name given to a group of persistent, very toxic chemicals that share similar chemical structures. The most toxic form of dioxin is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin or TCDD. TCDD is more commonly recognized as the toxic contaminant found in Agent Orange and at Love Canal, New York and Times Beach, Missouri, both sites of two of the most tragic environmental catastrophes in US history.

    Dioxin is not deliberately manufactured. It is the unintended byproduct of industrial processes that use or burn chlorine. It is also produced when chemicals such as vinyl chloride are burned such as occurred in East Palestine.

    The organization I work for, the Center for Health, Environment & Justice, has worked with communities affected by dioxins for over 40 years. We have seen the impact of exposure to dioxins in communities from Love Canal and Times Beach to Pensacola, Florida. And now, we are asking, why isn’t EPA testing for dioxins in East Palestine, Ohio? Are dioxins present in the soil downwind from the site of the accident?

    At a townhall meeting in East Palestine last week, people talked about what it was like when the black cloud reached their property. One person who lived 15 miles away described burned ash material from the fire that settled on her property. Another who lived 3 miles away described how the black cloud completely smothered his property. Repeatedly people asked: was it safe for my kids to play in the yard? Is it safe to grow a garden? What is going to happen to my farm animals?

    These are important questions that deserve to be answered. Today there are no clear answers. Why? Because no one has done any testing for dioxins anywhere in East Palestine. No one. And, it seems, that the EPA is uninterested in testing for dioxins, behaving as though dioxin is no big deal.

    This makes no sense. Testing for dioxin, a highly toxic substance, should have been one of the first things to look for, especially in the air once the decision was made to burn the vinyl chloride. There is no question that dioxins were formed in the vinyl chloride fire. They would have formed on the particulate matter – the black soot – in the cloud that was so clearly visible at the time of the burn. Now, the question is how much is in the soil where people live in and around East Palestine. Without testing, no one will know and the people who live there will remain in the dark, uncertain about their fate.

    This is important because of the adverse health effects associated with exposure to dioxins. Exposure to dioxins can cause cancer, reproductive damage, developmental problems, type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease, infertility in adults, impairment of the immune system and skin lesions.

    The EPA is very familiar with dioxins. For more than 25 years, the agency evaluated and assessed the risks posed by exposure to dioxins. They published multiple draft reports on the health effects caused by exposure to dioxins. They published an inventory of dioxin sources and devoted an enormous amount of time to studying dioxins. The agency knows this chemical very well.

    So why is EPA unwilling to test for dioxins in the soil? My guess is because they know they will find it. And if they find it, they’ll have to address the many questions people are asking. It will not be easy to interpret the results of the testing for dioxins in soil, but to avoid testing is irresponsible. The EPA’s mission is to protect human health and the environment. Clearly the situation in East Palestine is the place where EPA should follow its mission and do right by the people who live in this town. EPA must test the soil in East Palestine for dioxins.

    The people who live there need to know so they can make informed decisions about their future.

    Also on Thursday, again a month later, President Biden said he would visit East Palestine “at some point.” 

    East Palestine is ‘Biden’s Katrina.’ That is poor timing on the administration’s part, considering the presidential election cycle is about to begin. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 20:40

  • Los Angeles Police Union Says Officers Should No Longer Respond To Certain Calls
    Los Angeles Police Union Says Officers Should No Longer Respond To Certain Calls

    Authored by Jamie Joseph via The Epoch Times,

    As the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) grapples with understaffing and slow emergency response times, the city’s police union – the Los Angeles Police Protective League representing over 9,000 sworn personnel – submitted a list this week to the Los Angeles City Council of 28 non-emergency calls that it believes should be diverted to unarmed responders.

    The list – which includes nonviolent homeless and mental health-related calls – will allow officers to prioritize and respond more swiftly to critical emergencies and higher profile crimes, the union said March 1 in a statement to the media, and allow nonprofit workers and other city agencies to respond instead. The outline was sent to the city as part of its labor contract negotiations.

    Union spokesperson Tom Saggau told The Epoch Times it took several months to put the list together, and it was not a joint effort with the LAPD.

    “Police officers are sent to too many calls that are better suited for unarmed service providers,” Craig Lally, the union’s president said in a statement to the media.

    “We believe that in order to maximize the potential benefits of this new response model, it’s important that the initial list of calls where police officers will cease responding to is robust.”

    Other types of calls on the union’s list include issues such as parking violations, tenant disputes, dog complaints where no attack has occurred, illegal gambling, public defecation or urination, panhandling, calls to schools for nonviolent juvenile disturbances, welfare checks, nonviolent incidents at city parks, under the influence cases where no other crime is involved, public drinking, and cleanups of encampments.

    Union director and former LAPD officer, Debbie Thomas said during a news conference March 1 that “police officers are not psychologists, we are not psychiatrists, we are not mental health experts.”

    “We are not social workers, doctors, nurses or waste management experts,” she said.

    LAPD Chief Michel Moore said in a statement to the Associated Press that alternative policing has “already diverted thousands of calls away from a police response,” allowing officers to conserve limited resources for more serious calls.

    Moore began asking retired officers in January to consider returning to the force amid a staffing shortage. As of mid-February, the department is down by 233 officers, according to a department personnel report.

    It currently has around 9,200 officers, but 600 are expected to leave in 2024, a 20 percent increase over 2022.

    …

    The union’s proposal aligns with the city’s recent consideration of alternative means of policing in several categories, particularly when dealing with the homeless and mentally ill.

    …

    Los Angeles is not the first to consider a shift to such.

    New York City, San Francisco, Portland, and Olympia, Washington have also implemented or considered deploying unarmed response teams in recent years.

    Dispatching mental health specialists instead of police officers to substance abuse and nonviolent emergencies in Denver showed a 34 percent reduction in low-level crime, according to a 2022 study published in Science Advances, a peer-reviewed research publisher.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 20:20

  • Will DeSantis Rescue Republicans Or Let Them Down?
    Will DeSantis Rescue Republicans Or Let Them Down?

    Authored by A.B.Stoddard via RealClearPolitics.com,

    Unfortunately for Ron DeSantis, expectations of him could not be higher. For a critical mass of Republicans seeking to move past Donald Trump, the Florida governor is already the anointed savior. While Trump still holds the lead in most polling, DeSantis is almost always second choice and is the favorite for many Republicans who want a new standard bearer because they believe Trump can’t win.

    Though he has not yet launched a campaign, and his allies say he would not until the state legislature completes its session in May, DeSantis definitely wants us all to think he will soon be a presidential candidate. He has a new book out, there have been more visits outside of the Sunshine State, more interviews on Fox News, and more use of state power to curb a bunch of things he opposes as “wokeism.”

    His book is titled “The Courage To Be Free: Florida’s Blueprint for America’s Revival.” It isn’t subtle.

    This wouldn’t be just any presidential run. The Republican Party has been remade by Trump, and he remains in control of a solid portion of its base. Because Trump could prevail in winner-take-all primaries with only a plurality of the vote like he did in 2016, DeSantis will have to catch fire immediately so other contenders feel pressure to drop out and back him in a two-man race.

    Thus far DeSantis has shown impressive discipline, refusing to answer any of Trump’s provocations – from nicknames like “Ron DeSanctimonious” and “Meatball Ron” to an insinuation DeSantis behaved inappropriately while teaching high school girls early in his career.

    DeSantis avoids the political fray, refusing to weigh in on most everything that happens in Washington or Mar-a-Lago. DeSantis has proven a competent and effective governor, not only in his response to COVID but in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. But he has put himself on the Republican map by meticulously building a record to thrill and delight the MAGA right with his curriculum culture wars and is running to the right of Trump on vaccines.

    Is he canny enough to please the populist right in the Party of Trump, then win over a general election that has rejected Trump, his party, and his candidates in 2018, 2020, and 2022? Unlike Trump, DeSantis has won over many Democrats with increased teacher pay, funding to restore the Everglades, and his stewardship of the state through the COVID pandemic when he largely kept Florida open.

    But there are concerns among some Republicans that DeSantis could scare off enough independent voters in the primary to lose the general election. Sen. Chris Murphy recently told the Washington Post that DeSantis is “using government to manipulate and micromanage our lives,” in ways that are “Orwellian” and “creepy,” and suggested that should provide an opportunity for Democrats.

    The road to the White House is paved with land mines and will test DeSantis’ political instincts. Apparently a demanding boss, he has had trouble with staff turnover, according to reporting by Politico, and a number of former staffers formed a “support group” in 2021. Campaign experts have questioned whether someone who doesn’t have a cadre of loyal aides, and tends to trust only his wife, can run a successful presidential campaign on the first try.

    He will also have to play an insider and outsider game in both the primary and the general that is hard to define in the era of Trump. Did DeSantis know what he was doing when he chose to endorse Harmeet Dhillon in the race to chair the Republican National Committee even though it was clear Ronna McDaniel would win? Perhaps that was meant to help his street cred with MAGA voters, but the truth is that Trump has deeply co-opted the RNC, and supported McDaniel despite objections from Rep. Matt Gaetz & Co.

    Was that the move of a political genius or a novice? And does DeSantis know how cringeworthy and over the top this ad was that informed us he was chosen by God?

    DeSantis has also refused to do interviews with the mainstream media, something Trump has always done no matter how much he rails against them. DeSantis is not naturally charming, and often appears grumpy in public. Behind closed doors, he isn’t a good schmoozer either. Trump is a showman, craving adoration and loving the stage. Trump is also a brawler whose attacks aren’t limited by decency or dignity. Should DeSantis wilt in the face of Trump’s attacks, and fail to be that “fighter” he sold himself to be, he will have to hope primary voters prefer competence over performance and don’t reject him for the reigning alpha.

    A powerful juggernaut also requires a deft balancing act. Too much consolidation around DeSantis could tip the scales back to Trump – if the entire donor class, Fox News Channel, the Club for Growth, and the rest of the GOP establishment back DeSantis, Trump will once again be the outsider. Headlines about Jeb Bush endorsing DeSantis help Trump.

    Right now, he’s everyone’s favorite horse – but DeSantis doesn’t get to place or show. He has to win. It’s vanquish Trump or go down as a great disappointment.

    For a 44-year-old incumbent who just won reelection handily, waiting until 2028 after a second Biden term (or after a second Trump term), would be far easier than taking on this primary battle. But waiting, and passing one’s “moment,” is considered a kiss of death in politics. Presidential contenders are expected to have the guts to jump in when everyone else wants them to, and to ride the momentum or else. But for DeSantis, a primary win could still invite a bitter end, if Trump refuses to endorse him and boycotts the general election. In a close presidential contest, like 2020 or 2016, Trump could convince even a small percentage of GOP voters to sit it out and doom DeSantis.

    Ron DeSantis better make sure he has an end game.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 19:40

  • Hunter Biden Linked To Chinese Military Firm Helping Russia Fight Ukraine
    Hunter Biden Linked To Chinese Military Firm Helping Russia Fight Ukraine

    Hunter Biden’s investment firm, BHR Partners, did business with a CCP-owned military company that’s now sending fighter jet parts to a sanctioned Russian defense conglomerate, thus assisting the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine.

    BHR – which counted Hunter as a 10% stakeholder, worked with AVIC automotive – a subsidiary of Chinese state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China, to buy Michigan-based Henniges Automotive in September of 2015, the Washington Examiner‘s Jerry Dunleavy reports.

    The Wall Street Journal reported in February 2023 that AVIC subsidiary AVIC International Holding Corporation had shipped “$1.2 million worth of parts for Su-35 jet fighters” to sanctioned Russian defense conglomerate Rostec subsidiary Kret on Oct. 24, 2022. Although a number of Chinese companies have been sanctioned over Russia’s war in Ukraine, AVIC is not one of them. AVIC’s provision of Su-35 jet fighter parts to Russia is notable.

    The Ukrainian military claimed in August 2022 that the Russians had lost roughly two dozen Su-35 jets during the war at that point. The Rand Corporation said in October 2022 that Russia needed to replace Su-35s lost in combat but that sanctions were hurting its ability to do so. -Washington Examiner

    Hunter Biden’s lawyer claimed in November 2021 that Hunter “no longer holds any interest, directly or indirectly, in either BHR or Skaneateles,” an LLC owned by Hunter that held his 10% BHR stake.

    Yet in September 2015, it was already publicly known that AVIC was working with several companies tied to the Russian military, including Rostec, and that these companies were under sanctions tied to the annexation of Crimea in early 2014.

    BHR, meanwhile, said in September 2015 that it was “delighted to announce” the joint purchase of Henniges for $600 million in collaboration with AVIC.

    The deal between AVIC and Rostec was inked in December 2014. In an announcement related to the agreement, Rostec boasted of “joint projects in aircraft, helicopter, and engine production,” and that “cooperation with Chinese partners is part of Rostec Corporation’s strategic plan.”

    “We particularly value cooperation with AVIC,” the Rostec statement continued.

    Then in May of 2015, Rostec subsidiary Russian Helicopters announced that they had a deal with AVIC to create “an advanced heavy helicopter.” The agreement was signed in the Kremlin by each company’s CEO, “in the presence of” Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin – and which Rostec said was “an important component of Russian-Chinese collaboration.”

    Seven AVIC subsidiaries were sanctioned in December 2020 when the U.S. government determined they were “military end users.” Rostec was sanctioned again by the Treasury Department in June 2022 following Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine that year, with the U.S. saying the sanctions “will weaken Russia’s ability to continue its aerial assault on Ukraine.” -Washington Examiner

    Former AVIC CEO Lin Zuoming said at the time that the joint collaboration “will have a positive influence on the development of China’s helicopter industry.”

     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 19:20

  • 10 Shocking Public Freakouts That Will Have You Shaking Your Head
    10 Shocking Public Freakouts That Will Have You Shaking Your Head

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Have you noticed that people seem to be a lot more prone to losing their temper these days?

    In a civilized society, those that disagree are supposed to resolve their differences in a calm, rational manner.  But now we live in a world where people fly into a rage at the slightest provocation.  Without a doubt, the last several years have been rough on everyone, and I have never seen as much anger and frustration as I am witnessing right now. 

    So what will our society look like if conditions continue to deteriorate and people just keep getting even angrier and even more frustrated?

    Let me share some examples that will demonstrate precisely what I am talking about.  The following are 10 shocking public freakouts that will have you shaking your head…

    #1 I don’t know exactly what is going on here, but I love the part where he smashes his own sunglasses…

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    #2 This is not a video game. This is actually how people drive in real life…

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    #3 This is what can happen when you use “the wrong pronoun” in America today…

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    #4 Randi Weingarten is quite upset that the Supreme Court might overturn the student loan debt forgiveness program…

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    #5 Apparently he is quite determined to keep conservatives away from his library…

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    #6 Why would you film yourself doing this?…

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    #7 This is what happened when a crazy woman was confronted for cutting in line…

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    #8 Pete Buttigieg’s team really did not like being asked questions about why it took him so long to finally get to East Palestine…

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    #9 She didn’t take it very well when she learned that Roe v. Wade had been overturned…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    #10 Do you remember when words still actually meant something?…

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    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 19:00

  • Iran President Says Foreign Enemies Behind Poisonings At Girls' Schools
    Iran President Says Foreign Enemies Behind Poisonings At Girls’ Schools

    The story of the alleged poison gas attacks targeting girls’ schools across Iran has just gotten even more bizarre, after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a Friday televised speech pointed the finger at foreign adversaries conducting a covert plot. 

    “This is a security project to cause chaos in the country whereby the enemy seeks to instill fear and insecurity among parents and students,” Raisi said, in what is typically code for Israel and the US.

    AFP/Getty Images

    According to Al Jazeera, “He did not say who those enemies were, although Iranian leaders habitually accuse the United States and Israel, among others, of acting against it.”

    In another strange development: 

    Separately, a senior Iranian official said a fuel tanker found next to a school in a Tehran suburb and which had also been spotted in two other cities was probably involved in the poisonings.

    Authorities seized the tanker and arrested its driver, said Reza Karimi Saleh, the deputy governor of the Pardis suburb.

    Girls in up to 15 cities have been affected, Iranian authorities have said, in what are suspected to be mass poisonings. There’s been an estimated 30 incidents.

    There’s currently speculation that an unknown entity, possibly hardline Islamists, may be throwing some type of poisonous gas mixture into schools and school yards, causing dozens of girls at a time to fall ill. The bizarre incidents began being reported back in November.

    School girls have reported feeling headaches and nausea, and there have been some reports of individuals experiencing temporary paralysis of their limbs.

    The incidents have lately begun to gain international media attention, with the United Nations weighing in at the end of this week. Spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, told a briefing “We’re very concerned about these allegations that girls are being deliberately targeted under what appear to be mysterious circumstances” – and urged a thorough investigation.

    As for Raisi’s newest allegations that it may be a foreign entity behind the poison attacks, Tehran has long had reason to be paranoid given the number of very real Israeli covert attacks inside the country, including everything from sabotage of nuclear facilities to assassinations of nuclear scientists in recent years. 

    However, Islamic hardliners have long been known to attack women either in the workplace or at school, given they believe that women should not have a visible place in the public sphere.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 18:40

  • Interest Rates: The Silent Killer
    Interest Rates: The Silent Killer

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    This article is about why interest rates and bond yields are rising and why they will continue to rise, threatening to undermine the entire western banking system.

    Rising bond yields are deferring the prospect of a central bank pivot away from fighting inflation to tackling a widely expected recession. Anyway, these expectations wrongly assume that price inflation will fall in a recession, leading to lower interest rates.

    History tells us that monetary debasement, rising prices and a slump in business activity go together. Indeed, a slump in economic activity is almost certain, but interest rates will continue to rise reflecting declining purchasing powers for fiat currencies. There is nothing the monetary authorities can do to prevent it, and consequently a cyclical banking crisis, this time including both central and commercial banking systems, is bound to result.

    In this article, I point out the consequences of not understanding the true role of interest rates, the fallacies surrounding commodity price formation, and why a general glut cannot happen, which according to the Keynesians drives recessions.

    Blaming inflation on Russia or other external forces cuts no ice. Our crisis is entirely of our own making. Rising interest rates are our silent killer.

    Introduction

    Central banks were happy to suppress interest rates, even into negative territory, so long as the heavily managed consumer price inflation statistic was rising at an annualised rate of two per cent or so. But the expansion of credit during the covid pandemic changed that, with prices subsequently leaping above the two per cent target. The new price trend first became evident in mid-2020 in both producer and consumer prices. And when NATO decided to respond to the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year ago by cutting off this major energy and commodity supplier from global markets, prices soared, and interest rate suppression policies backfired.

    The last time the Fed tried to let interest rates “normalise” and quantitative tightening replaced easing was before the covid pandemic. It raised its funds rate to the then dizzy heights of 2.25%–2.5% in mid-2019, leading to a repo crisis that September, and a stock market crash when the S&P 500 Index lost one-third in just five weeks between February and mid-March. QE then returned with a vengeance and the Fed funds rate was pinned to the zero bound for fully two years. And now it stands at 4.25%—5%, double the level which led to the 2020 market crisis, which was in more benign conditions.

    The only thing that stands in the way of a new market crash is hope; hope that the inflation dragon is little more than a magical puff of the imagination. Initially, we were told inflation is transient. Then we were told and are still being told that it would definitely return to the 2% target, only it will take a little longer…

    It is a story of which the market is now getting tired. After consolidating earlier rises in late-2022, bond yields are rising again, signalling that international investors and speculators are losing the faith. Figure 1 below illustrates the position for dollar bonds.

    The generous gap between higher short and lower long-term yields is a measure of investors’ hope that in time interest rates will decline with the rate of inflation. A negative yield curve (positive being the normal condition) is said to foreshadow a forthcoming recession. In Keynesian terms, it indicates that the prospect of a general glut of product arriving on the market and insufficient consumer demand will lead to a decline in prices. It is an argument based on unsound reasoning more than evidential fact, but so long as investors imagine it, they continue to maintain their overall bullishness. For them, normality is consumer price inflation returning to a normal 2%, interest rates falling back towards the zero bound and credit expanding again.

    An underlying assumption is that all changes in prices emanate from the supply and demand for goods, and that the purchasing power of the currency is a constant. But when the quantity of a fiat currency and associated credit expands massively and given the vagaries of human evaluation, this cannot be true.

    In a ring-fenced economy, where domestic investors are the only players, the Keynesian fairy tale can persist for longer than any objective analysis suggests is reasonable. But major economies are interconnected in multiple ways, and foreign perceptions can and do differ from the domestic. At some point, the foreigners’ patience in a currency with suppressed interest rates and falling purchasing power becomes lost and the currency is sold down, unless the monetary authorities wise up to their errors and raise interest rates sufficiently to protect the currency. And when all major central banks try to protect their currencies from foreign selling by following similar inflationary policies, foreigners tend to do two things. They reduce their exposure to foreign currencies by buying back their own so that they are not exposed to foreign exchange risk, and they buy other things which they may need in future, stockpiling gold and commodities simply to get out of depreciating currencies.

    There is no doubt that the currency to which foreigners are most exposed is the dollar. When they turn sellers, it is usually an unpleasant surprise for domestic investors, who have learned to live with statist mismanagement. For foreigners, the wake-up call is most likely to emanate from yet higher interest rates, being signalled by an emerging higher yield trend on the 10-year US Treasury note.

    This article examines the factors which set interest rates, as well as the errors driving central bank monetary policies. It then follows up with a brief analysis of the parlous condition of banking systems, and the consequences of their failure.

    The truth about interest rate mismanagement

    According to official monetary policy, interest rates regulate the demand for credit. But M3, which is the widest measure of currency and bank credit appears to show little or no correlation with swings in interest rates over the entire history of the purely fiat dollar (i.e., following the suspension of Bretton Woods). There might appear to be some correlation following the suppression of rates to the zero bound in early-2020. But an examination of events shows that the increase in M3 was the consequence of accelerated quantitative easing and bank deposits enlarged in a helicopter drop into individuals’ bank accounts. It had little to do with interest rates.

    In recent months, the rise in the Fed funds rate has accompanied a contraction in M3, but to a large extent this contraction represents a withdrawal of credit from financial activities, which is not a policy objective. Undoubtedly, banks have become aware of increased lending risk, an awareness which is examined later in this article. But some of the deposits which would otherwise make up the M3 total have been diverted into reverse repos at the Fed by banks lacking balance sheet capacity to take them in, reducing the M3 total from what it would otherwise be by some $2 trillion. 

    The evidence from Figure 2 raises other important questions. Should policy planners stick with managing interest rates as the primary method of inflation control by pricing credit? Why is it that interest rates do not correlate with the quantity of money and credit: does that mean that interest rates do not represent the price of credit? Does this lack of correlation portend a policy failure?

    Resolving these questions is now an urgent priority. Price inflation everywhere has erupted suddenly at a time when economies in all the major jurisdictions, according to the mainstream, appear likely to need further stimulus. The probable policy outcome will be to continue to raise interest rates, however reluctantly, while remaining free to expand the quantities of currency and credit to support economic activity, government spending, and to resolve systemic failures. In effect, that there is a link between interest rates and total credit is about to be denied by the monetary establishment itself in the pursuit of a solution.

    We have moved on from the Volcker years when the inflation remedy was to raise interest rates to levels which fully discounted inflation expectations. Today the overall debt situation, which has become hyper-sensitive to interest rate rises, is more serious than it has ever been. The solution whereby central banks can print their way out of interest rate increases without collapsing their currencies appears to be a short-term illusion when the role of interest rates is properly understood. To understand why, we must answer the question posed in Figure 2 above about the non-correlation between interest rates and the quantities of currency and credit. Only then can we truly appreciate the extent of the fallacies driving contemporary monetary policies and the likely consequences.

    Interest rates reflect time preference and monetary depreciation

    If there is one reason why the state always fails in its monetary policies, it is the inability of the bureaucratic mind to incorporate time into decision-making. In the productive market economy, which is little more than a name for the collective actions of transacting individuals and their businesses, time is probably the most important factor. A producer incorporates time in his profit calculations, as does a consumer in his needs and desires, whether wanting something immediately or being prepared to defer his purchase. And because money is the link between both earnings and spending on one hand and savings and investment on the other, time is of the essence for money as well. It is this irrefutable fact that leads to a preference for money to be possessed sooner rather than later. And if a saver is to part with it temporarily to be returned later, naturally he or she will expect compensation for the loss of its utility.

    Fundamentally, this is what interest rates in the market economy represent. It is the time preference factor, set between transacting humans, which values possession in the future less than possession today. To pure time preference, narrowly defined as the evaluation of the loss of possession, we can add an element for counterparty risk. And when transacting humans anticipate a fall in purchasing power before money owed is returned, that is yet another factor which in fiat currencies can become the most important variable. 

    The common central bank target for price inflation of 2% implies that interest compensation to include an element of time preference, counterparty risk, and monetary depreciation suggests a base case of perhaps 3%–4% deposit interest would be required to encourage savings to remain in a bank account. Taxation of interest income would add to this level. 

    US consumer prices are currently rising at 6.2% officially, the rate having been somewhat higher. But that 6.2% rate is an assumption because we can only talk of the general level of prices in the abstract. It cannot be calculated, only assessed, leaving room for statistical meddling. We can only guess at the true rate of currency depreciation and what the level of interest rates should therefore be. And we can be certain that the central bank’s opinion is biased by both political objectives and analysis biased by statist theories of money.

    For now, bond markets assume that the Fed has complete control over policy outcomes. And that a yield of less than 4% for the 10-year Treasury note is fair. But if price inflation remains persistently high, then there is going to be a bond-market led crash as their bond yields gravitate towards a level determined by the sum of time preference, currency depreciation, and escalating counterparty risk. And we should note that foreigners to the US hold some $12 trillion of portfolio investments in addition to $6.4 trillion Treasury bonds, $1.3 trillion Agency bonds, $4 trillion in corporate bonds, in all $23.6 trillion, to which must be added bank deposits, commercial and Treasury bills totalling a further $7.1 trillion.[ii]

    Over $30 trillion is not a trivial amount for foreigners facing rising dollar interest rates. Not only are they not obtaining satisfactory interest compensation on their dollars, but so long as they retain them, they will find that they are increasingly enmeshed in the dollar’s problems.

    The situation in other financialised fiat-driven economies gives no comfort either. Despite the declining purchasing power of the Japanese yen reflected in a CPI currently rising at 4.2% annually, the Bank of Japan still insists on negative interest rates. At minus 0.19%, one-month rates have been in negative territory for the last seven years. The BoJ is struggling to keep the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds capped at 0.5%. With consumer price inflation at current levels, I calculate that the 10-year JGB should be priced more than 30% below current levels. Mark to market valuations at this level would leave the entire Japanese banking system bankrupt and leave the Japanese government facing an impossible interest bill. The entire Japanese banking system, its currency, and economy would be lucky to survive in its current form.

    Eurozone yields are on the rise as well, with important bond yields rising to new highs. This is illustrated in Figure 3.

    Part of the problem is that despite growing signs of a recession in western economies, China is awakening from extended covid lockdowns and a domestic property crisis with credit growth returning. As the sun sets in the west, it is rising in the east. China’s energy and commodity requirements will grow significantly in the coming years, which is why she has secured long-term gas and oil supply agreements with Qatar and Saudi Arabia respectively.

    Analysts are becoming aware of the Chinese factor, leading to expectations that price inflation in the west will persist for longer. But they still point to a recession in Europe and America as leading to reduced consumer demand and a glut of unsold goods. We now need to explode this myth, that a recession occurs when consumers reduce their spending, leading to a general glut of products and therefore declining consumer prices.

    The glut fallacy

    The confusion over whether a glut can arise increases when a recession, or a slump in an economy develops. Macroeconomists expect prices to fall due to a slump in demand: in other words, they anticipate a general surplus of production remaining unsold. 

    There might be a negative price effect from inventory liquidation, but that is only a short-term effect. And today, with just-in-time inventory practices, the price effects from inventory liquidation are short-lived and relatively minor.

    The error in Keynes’s general glut proposition comes from his denial of Say’s law, or the law of the markets, which tells us that consumers earn salaries and make profits from their labour producing goods and services. Should they find themselves unemployed, the loss of earnings will also reflect a loss of production. Both tend to decline in tandem. While production still funds consumption and a balance between them is maintained, the Keynesian view that a recession leads to a general glut ­– as opposed to a temporary glut in some products – is untenable. 

    Because the onset of a recession is expected to lead to commodity surpluses on the market, a fall in the value of commodities might appear to lead to price declines even if Say’s law is admitted. Oil and gas prices are particularly volatile in this respect, despite extraction volumes being relatively insensitive to changes in demand. And miners of precious and base metals often respond initially to commodity price weakness by increasing extraction to compensate, which can lead to further price declines. However, relationships between commodity prices and recessions are not that straightforward.

    Figure 4 shows the price of WTI oil in US dollars and officially designated recessions. It should be borne in mind that evidence of a downturn in economic activity is telegraphed well ahead of the event (as is the case today) and theoretically markets will factor in a recession even before then. According to macroeconomic dogmas, allowing for these factors oil prices should fall ahead of an officially designated recession and pick up when a recession begins to end. 

    That being the case, the price increase from $16 in 1979 to $40 in 1980 should not have occurred. And the price increase from $18 to $35 in 1990 is similarly against the grain. But most spectacular was the move from $58 in 2007 to $140 in June 2008 in the middle of an officially designated recession.

    There are examples the other way, and wars and financial crises also distort the relationship. But a clear correlation between the two does not exist. And where a correlation might be claimed, the price effects of recessions on oil and other commodities were probably exaggerated by speculative activity in derivatives, which even drove WTI prices briefly into negative territory in April 2020.

    Widely ignored by market analysts and economists alike are price changes emanating from changes in a fiat currency’s valuation. The situation today is of unanchored, unsound credit. And given the sheer volatility of prices measured in fiat currencies, price changes appear to emanate from the currencies to a far greater extent than the commodities themselves. This is the only conclusion that can be drawn from our next chart in Figure 5, which is of oil priced in both fiat dollars and gold, the latter being the ultimate legal money in both Roman law and its modern successors for the last 1,800 years.

    The value of gold itself has not been immune to influences emanating from fiat currencies and financial speculation in derivatives, imparting volatility into gold prices which would not otherwise exist. Nevertheless, priced in legal money oil prices have been remarkably stable.

    Therefore, while we can postulate that variations in commodity prices through booms and busts may or might not give the appearance of individual commodity shortages and gluts, the clear evidence is that the price volatility seen in commodity values is in fiat currencies themselves to a far greater extent than in commodity values. And therefore, when these distortions are allowed for, they are not evidence of a commodity glut. Furthermore, empirical evidence of wholesale prices from the booms and slumps during the nineteenth century under gold coin standards confirms our analysis.

    The difference between energy and commodity prices valued in a fiat currency as opposed to gold is not due to a supposed recession-induced glut, but due to changes in the availability of credit. This is what many contemporary economists, most notably followers of Keynes, failed to understand in their desire to dismiss free markets.

    The banking situation

    The majority by far of a circulating medium is commercial bank credit. Central bank credit in public circulation consisting entirely of bank notes usually accounts for less than ten per cent of broad money M3 or M2, the balance being bank deposit liabilities. Even though central banks pretend that their bank notes are money, this is untrue because they are a liability of a central bank and therefore counterparty credit.

    In the case of the US dollar, bank notes in circulation represent 10.8% of M3. But various estimates put the true number at roughly half that, when dollar bank notes circulating abroad and those lost are considered. Therefore, 95% of dollar denominated circulating medium in the US economy is bank credit, and the lending behaviour of the commercial banking cohort is the most important determinant of economic activity.

    In the initial stages of a period of rising interest rates, business is good for banks with margins for credit tending to improve. We have seen this recently, with bank profits and their share prices having risen significantly in 2022. But this is a temporary phase, inevitably followed by concern on the effects of yet higher interest rates on economic calculation. Businesses which factored lower interest rates into their calculations find that their plans begin to go awry. Bankers are aware of this problem through their own monitoring of business conditions.

    Previously, they will have expanded their balance sheets in favourable lending conditions, so that the ratio of balance sheet assets to the bank’s liability to its shareholders is bound to be higher than normal. And while in good times this enhances returns to shareholders, in bad times it rapidly destroys shareholder value. It is high balance sheet leverage which makes bankers hypersensitive to changing lending conditions. By way of confirmation, Figure 6 below shows the relationship between lending intentions and periods of recession for the US banking system.

    Clearly, every recession has been preceded by a tightening of loan standards, indicating that it is the restriction, or contraction of bank credit which leads to recessions every time. The reason is that the GDP measure of growth and recession reflect changes in the level of total transactions in the economy, so it is always a measure of credit deployed, and not as is generally supposed, economic progress or regression.

    At this stage of the credit cycle, caution in bank lending becomes driven by fear of non-performing loans, the damage of which can rapidly eliminate shareholders’ funds for a highly leveraged bank balance sheet. The charts in Figure 7 further justify bankers’ caution with respect to lending policies.

    The ratios above are derived from The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and are updated to last September (the next release is due later this month). In the first graph, we see that the ratio of equity capital to assets for all bank categories shows increased leverage from the last banking crisis when Lehman failed. The most highly leveraged group is the largest banks, additionally exposed to falling financial asset values.

    It is this leverage ratio which affects returns to shareholders most. But for regulatory purposes it is the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET-1) ratio that matters. CET-1 is defined as common shares, stock surpluses from issuing common shares, retained earnings, unrealised gains and losses reported in the equity section of the balance sheet, and some other similar items. Excluded is goodwill, tax credits, and preference capital. The ratio is determined with risk-adjusted assets in accordance with the net stable funding ratio, which classifies sources of funding and their application. Other risk factors also apply.

    It is therefore impossible for outsiders to assess the true banking position of individual banks from a regulatory point of view. But we can assume that if a bank is in danger of breaching regulatory capital minimums it will be forced to either raise more shareholders’ capital or liquidate loans. And it should be noted that nearly all of the large international banks in Japan and Europe have capitalisations significantly under book value, eliminating the prospect of additional shareholder funding, except in a capital reconstruction crisis such as recently seen in the case of Credit Suisse.

    The second FDIC chart in Figure 7 is also disturbing, showing the increasing proportion of long-term loan commitments which signals declining liquidity. Traditionally, this concern has been expressed as evidence of lack of a bank’s solvency or borrowing short to lend long. In a banking crisis, it becomes a fundamental public concern which leads to runs on individual banks. But the increasing level of long-term loans almost certainly reflects a tendency for borrowers to lock in low interest rates when the Fed supressed them. 

    We can only assume that many banks will have hedged some or all of their illiquid exposure through interest rate swaps, passing the problems of increasing interest rates to other banks, insurance corporations and pension funds. To the extent that interest rate swap counterparties are other banks, exposure to rising interest rates and the consequences for long-term loan obligations remain within the banking system. For the whole banking cohort, hedged or unhedged, rising interest rates make these loans not only progressively unprofitable, but lending officers will begin to concern themselves about whether they can be rolled over on maturity at higher interest rates.

    The US banking system is less leveraged than their opposites in the EU and Japan, at least so far as the global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) are concerned. The G-SIBs in those jurisdictions have asset to equity ratios commonly twenty times or more. And already, Credit Suisse, which was not so highly leveraged as its European neighbours, has had to be rescued. In short, higher interest rates leading to falling asset values and increasing non-performing loans together represent an existential threat to the survival of the global banking network.

    Central banks are also in a parlous state

    One of the primary functions of a modern central bank is to ensure the integrity of the commercial banks in its jurisdiction. We can see that further increases in interest rates are sure to threaten this integrity, raising the issue as to whether central banks are in a position to manage a global banking crisis.

    At the outset, it should be stated that the reflex action of G20 leaders and their finance ministers to the Lehman failure was to ensure that in future failing banks would not be bailed out at taxpayers’expense. The concept behind so-called bail-ins was that bondholders and large depositors should be required to sacrifice their bonds and deposits for equity capital to recapitalise a bank as the initial method of rescue. Accordingly, all G20 member nations agreed to pass enabling legislation to permit bail-ins to replace the previous approach of bailing out a failing bank.

    The net stable funding ratio calculation in Basel 3 regulations introduced at the G20’s behest reflects the greater risk from bail-ins with respect to large deposits, which in a banking crisis would rapidly leave the weaker banks, precipitating their failure. Under the NSFR calculation, large deposits are penalised as available stable funding, a move designed to reduce exposure to them. This is the likely reason US banks are turning down large deposits, which are now being accommodated by the Fed with its reverse repo facility.

    There can be little doubt that the introduction of bail-in legislation in all major banking jurisdictions will make it more difficult for central banks to coordinate their actions in a global banking crisis. When there was one set of bail out procedures following the Lehman failure in the US, it was bad enough. Ireland’s entire economy had to be bailed by the EU, and Germany’s major banks had to be rescued. It is not even clear whether central banks will be in a position to agree to discard bail-in regulations in the interest of a coordinated practical approach to an international banking crisis.

    Additionally, there is the issue of their own financial position. Since the Lehman failure, central banks have expanded their balance sheets as a counterpart of cash injections into bond markets in the form of QE. What the increase in interest rates has exposed is that central banks have paid the highest prices for their government paper, which has subsequently fallen in value. With the exception of the Bank of England, whose losses are underwritten by the UK Treasury, on a mark-to-market basis all major central banks are in a position of deeply negative equity. 

    In the case of the Bank of England and the Fed, it should be a simple if embarrassing matter of recapitalisation by recording a loan to their national governments as an asset and balancing it with an equity liability. In a crisis, that may be difficult enough for a sceptical public to accept, but the situation with the Bank of Japan and the ECB along with their national central banking network in the euro system is considerably more difficult.

    The BoJ has pioneered QE since the year 2000, that is 23 years. The inflationary consequences at the consumer level have been subdued, partly through government subsidies estimated to suppress prices of up to 40% of Japan’s CPI, but mainly because of the Japanese habit of saving. When credit is saved and not spent, the inflation of credit is not fully reflected in consumer prices.

    Until September 2019, when values on the BoJ’s then portfolio were at their highest, the BoJ had notional profits. But since then, yields have risen, and since January 2022, losses on the portfolio of JGBs alone total Y453 billion to date, 4,530 times the BoJ’s equity capital of Y100 million. At the moment, the BoJ is trying desperately to contain the situation by accelerating its bond purchases. Despite last month’s CPI inflation rate at 4.2%, yields on JGBs are still pinned at negative rates up to 2-year maturities, the 10-year JGB bond yield is 0.51%, and the 20-year is 1.2%. It amounts to a very heavily rigged market to save the BoJ’s skin.

    The Eurosystem, comprising the ECB and the national central banks in the Eurozone, is also in negative equity, a condition shared by nearly all of the central banks involved. And to see the 10-year French, German, and Spanish bond yields breaking into new high ground (see Figure 3 above) signals that a new Eurozone banking crisis is unfolding.

    Recapitalising the ECB will be extremely difficult, requiring legislation in most, if not all the national parliaments in the Eurozone. Not only will politicians be asked to recapitalise their own national central banks, but as shareholders in the ECB additional resources will need to be made available for its recapitalisation as well. 

    Given that Germany’s politicians will almost certainly want an adequate explanation for €1.16 billion euros owed to the Bundesbank through the TARGET2 settlement system recorded as an asset on its balance sheet of questionable value, the recapitalisation of the Bundesbank and the ECB is likely to be a prolonged and difficult process. And when there is a banking crisis, time is of the essence.

    Summary and conclusion

    In this article, it has been demonstrated why the errors in monetary policy shared by all the central banks responsible for the major western currencies and their banking systems have led to the point where the global credit system of central bank currency and commercial bank credit is on the verge of collapse. The timing will be set by interest rates rising again, which in the Eurozone and Japan are already leading the way. Interest rates are the silent killer.

    Central banks are in this mess too deep to somehow unearth a conventional solution. They are meant to be the ultimate backstop for their banking systems in a crisis. Yet the Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ are themselves in a solvency crisis of their own making. An acute embarrassment for the Fed perhaps, but far more serious for the other two. And in the case of the ECB, we can rule out a rapid recapitalisation because of the structure of the euro system and unexplained TARGET2 imbalances.

    Lulled into a false sense of security, these central banks misread the consequences of their own credit expansion, not realising the damage they were doing to the purchasing power of their currencies and ultimately themselves. Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, producer and consumer prices were beginning to rise, dismissed as a transient trend. We were told that inflation would return to the two per cent target and now we were told it will take just a little longer.

    Monetary policy has the worst possible mistake for the authorities to make, and with negative interest rates still enforced by the BoJ, Japan is still catastrophically in denial. And official forecasts by bodies such as the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, and the US’s Congressional Budget Office still persist in telling us that inflation will return to the 2% target, when the evidence strongly suggests otherwise. Market participants who are perennially bullish want to believe in these forecasts. But bond yields are rising again, particularly in Japan and the Eurozone which started from a negative interest rate baseline.

    The truth of the matter is that interest rates and bond yields never rose to levels sufficient to keep foreign funds invested in bank deposits and financial assets. The combination of time preference, lending risk, and loss of purchasing power suggests that one-year dollar deposits should offer something over 6% at least, given a current CPI inflation rate of 6.2%. The gap between reality and current interest rates and bond yields is even more alarming in the Eurozone and Japan. And why UK gilts should yield less than equivalent US Treasuries is beyond vindication.

    Bond markets are broken. Doubtless, central bankers are in denial because they do not want to face up to crashing bond and stock markets, for them vital for the preservation of economic confidence. Nor can they face up to the bankruptcies of overindebted businesses and zombie corporations unable to afford higher interest rates. It is the ultimate consequence of government officials with no skin in the game attempting to manage economic outcomes by manipulating credit and interest rates.

    Having emerged from a prolonged period of declining interest rates, western capital markets still face a major readjustment, a process which has only started. And when it comes to commodity prices, for central bankers and bulls of financial assets there is likely to be a double disappointment. The easy one to understand is that the massive Chinese economy is emerging from lockdown with plans to increase capital investment across all Asia, which is why President Xi has been careful to secure long-term energy supplies. The second disappointment arises from a woeful lack of understanding about the relationship between production and consumption in a recession.

    Recently, speculation has been about when the Fed will pivot from being an inflation hawk into preventing a recession, as if it is an either one or the other choice. Say’s law, which disproved the possibility of a general glut and was wrongly traduced by Keynes in 1936 is clear on the matter. Inflationists expecting a general glut will be disappointed. 

    As the crisis hits, foreigners will almost certainly seek to unwind their foreign currency and investment exposure. The most owned foreign currency is the dollar, with foreigners owning a total of $30 trillion in bonds, other financial assets, and bank deposits. The unwinding of these positions is bound to lead to a dollar crisis as well as a wider banking crisis, all set to be triggered by further increases in interest rates and bond yields.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 18:20

  • Blinken Unveils $400 Million More In Arms With Ukraine Against The Ropes In Bakhmut
    Blinken Unveils $400 Million More In Arms With Ukraine Against The Ropes In Bakhmut

    As we reported earlier Ukrainian forces are nearly completely encircled in the key eastern city of Bakhmut, a dire situation which President Zelensky himself has increasingly acknowledged in a series of statements this week. Front line commanders have also said that Russian artillery has been relentless and “around the clock” in its sustainment. 

    As expected, Ukraine’s leadership has pleaded for more urgent weapons and ammo from its Western backers. On Friday Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new package of ammunition and other defense support, likely timed to give a mere symbolic answer to Ukrainians’ desperate appeals for more help from Bakhmut. 

    It’s valued at $400 million, and as international reports describe, “The package will be funded using Presidential Drawdown Authority, which authorizes the president to transfer articles and services from US stocks without congressional approval during an emergency,” according to Blinken’s description of the aid.

    Via Reuters

    The package will include rockets for HIMARS systems, more Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and other armored support, as well as howitzers.

    Blinken said in a statement: “This military assistance package includes more ammunition for US-provided HIMARS and howitzers, which Ukraine is using so effectively to defend itself, as well as ammunition for Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Armored Vehicle Launched Bridges, demolitions munitions and equipment, and other maintenance, training, and support.”

    The NY Times too is currently acknowledging this is a largely symbolic response to Ukraine forces being up against the ropes in the single biggest battle in Donbas region right now. “NATO leaders have long warned of a looming artillery shortage for Ukraine as its troops burn through thousands of shells each day in trying to push back Russian forces,” the Times writes.

    “That has been particularly clear in the monthslong battle for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops are fighting to avoid encirclement by Russian forces,” it adds.

    Revealingly, the report also includes the observation: “It was not clear if the new tranche of American ammunition would arrive in time to defend Bakhmut, if that is where commanders decide it should be sent.” Even as Ukraine is losing in Bakhmut, the administration is showing itself willing to pull from the Pentagon’s own already strained weapons stockpiles.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 18:00

  • Is This The Greatest Job Of Political Trolling Ever?
    Is This The Greatest Job Of Political Trolling Ever?

    Authored by Chris Queen via PJMedia.com,

    Modern politics is annoying and frustrating, but one of the most entertaining things about it is when conservatives troll left-wingers. So much of it takes place on social media, but sometimes the trolling actually takes place in legislatures.

    The latest instance of conservative political trolling has taken place in Florida, and it’s so brilliant it might be the greatest political trolling job ever.

    On Tuesday, State Sen. Blaise Ingoglia (R-11th district) filed SB 1248, gloriously titled “The Ultimate Cancel Act,” which, in its ultra-sanitized summary, would call on the state of Florida to “immediately cancel the filings of a political party if certain conditions exist; requiring the division to follow a certain procedure; requiring the division to provide a specified notice to certain voters; authorizing a canceled political party to reregister with the Department of State; providing procedures for an organization to reregister as a political party.”

    Sounds fair enough, right? But that’s before the fun begins. Later on, in the bill’s text, we learn that SB 1248 would ask the state to “immediately cancel the filings of a political party, to include its registration and approved status as a political party, if the party’s platform has previously advocated for, or been in support of, slavery or involuntary servitude.”

    You know what that means, right?

    As Orlando’s WESH so helpfully explains, “Southern Democrats advocated for slavery during the Civil War.” I would add that plenty of Northern Democrats also thought slavery was just dreamy back in the day, too.

    Naturally, it would be a stretch to believe that the Ultimate Cancel Act would have a snowball’s chance in Florida of passing. But Ingoglia intends to make a point with the legislation.

    “For years now, leftist activists have been trying to ‘cancel’ people and companies for things they have said or done in the past,” he said in a statement.

    “This includes the removal of statues and memorials and the renaming of buildings. Using this standard, it would be hypocritical not to cancel the Democrat Party itself for the same reason.”

    Democrats are up in arms about this one.

    “Republicans in Florida are so drunk with power that they are expanding their censorship agenda to even include abolishing the Democratic Party of Florida,” said Carlos Guillermo Smith, a former Democratic state representative.

    “If Floridians are not alarmed by what is coming out of Republican leadership in Tallahassee, then they are not paying enough attention.”

    “Presenting a bill that would disenfranchise 5 million voters is both unconstitutional and unserious,” the Florida Democratic Party said in a statement.

    “Under Ron DeSantis, Senator Ingoglia is using his office to push bills that are nothing more than publicity stunts instead of focusing on the issues that matter most to Floridians, such as reforming property insurance, addressing housing affordability, and combating climate change.”

    “The sooner DeSantis and his puppets in the legislature learn that Florida is a Democratic Republic and not a Banana Republic, the better it will be for all Floridians,” the statement concluded.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Check out Schultz’s last statement. “These radical extremists can’t be serious,” she tweeted. Beyond the fact that a member of a political party that pushes for babies to be killed to the point of birth is calling anyone “extremist,” Schultz is clearly lacking a sense of humor.

    Ingoglia has telegraphed that his legislation isn’t exactly a serious proposal.

    After all, his Twitter bio includes, “If you’re looking for snark, you’ve found it.”

    (By the way, there’s no “sensitive content” in the image in the tweet below.)

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While the prospect of Ingoglia’s bill is appealing, nobody really thinks this is a real proposal. But it does reveal two things: the Democrats don’t have a sense of humor, and they’re so lacking in self-awareness that they don’t realize that the real target of this bill, which approaches Swiftian levels of sly satire, is cancel culture in general.

    *  *  *

    If you enjoy PJ Media’s conservative reporting, consider supporting their work so that they can continue to bring you the truth. Become a PJ Media VIP member today and use the promo code SAVEAMERICA to get 40% off VIP membership!

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 17:40

  • US Beef Herd Drops To Lowest Since 1962 As Global Food Crisis Intensifies
    US Beef Herd Drops To Lowest Since 1962 As Global Food Crisis Intensifies

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Americans need to be prepared to eat a lot less beef, because the size of the national cattle herd is steadily shrinking.  And of course this is happening in the context of a much larger crisis.  As I detailed in a previous article, even CNN is admitting that we are currently in the midst of “the worst food crisis in modern history”.  But even though children are literally dropping dead from starvation on the other side of the planet, a lot of people here in the United States refuse to take this crisis seriously.  As long as their stomachs are full they think that everything is just fine.  But the truth is that conditions are also starting to get tight here in the United States.

    According to the latest biannual report from the USDA, the number of beef cows in this country has fallen to the lowest level since 1962…

    The USDA’s biannual cattle report showed that, as of Jan. 1, 2023, there is a 89.3 million head inventory — which is three percent lower than the total from a year ago and the lowest since 2015. Of that number, 38.3 million cows and heifers have calved.

    Additionally, there are 28.9 million beef cows, which are those explicitly bred for slaughter and meat sales, as of the start of this year — which is down nearly four percent from last year and the lowest the agency has recorded since 1962.

    In 1962, 184 million people lived in the United States.

    Today, that number has risen to 331 million.

    So we have a problem.

    But even though beef prices have been soaring, most Americans don’t realize the gravity of this shortage yet because we are still eating cattle that were slaughtered some time ago.

    And according to livestock economist Kenny Burdine, “cattle production’s downward trend does not seem like it will reverse in 2023”…

    University of Kentucky’s Kenny Burdine and James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, recently explained that “There was no question that the beef cow herd had gotten smaller” and that the cattle production’s downward trend does not seem like it will reverse in 2023.”

    “There is a pretty substantial biological lag in the beef supply chain,” Mitchell noted. “What consumers experience at the grocery store is a product of what cattle producers were going through a year or two ago. It takes about two years for a new calf to become the steak on your dinner plate.”

    The corporate media is already calling beef “a luxury meat”, and prices are inevitably going to go a lot higher in the months ahead.

    So if you love beef, you should stock up now.

    Meanwhile, food shortages continue to intensify all over the globe.

    In Yemen, literally millions of children “suffer from acute malnutrition” at this point…

    The Global Hunger Index currently ranks Yemen the worst in the world for level of hunger. Millions of Yemeni children, in some areas as many as 95% according to doctors in those areas that I spoke to, suffer from acute malnutrition.

    The resulting stunted physical development had me convinced that I was in a kindergarten classroom when in fact I was meeting with eight and nine-year-olds. And those children were, as a colleague unnervingly put it, “the lucky ones.”

    In North Korea, ordinary citizens are “reportedly dropping dead on the streets every day” due to the severe famine that is taking place in that nation…

    THIS is the moment Kim Jong-un and his cronies gorged on popcorn and champagne as North Korea faces the worst famine in three decades.

    Stockpiles of food are dwindling fast in the secretive state, and dozens of malnourished North Koreans are reportedly dropping dead on the streets every day.

    In Somalia, the “longest and most severe” drought in that country’s history has produced unprecedented suffering…

    About 1.3 million people, 80 percent women and children, have been internally displaced in Somalia by the drought sweeping the Horn of Africa. After five consecutive poor rainy seasons, the ongoing drought has already become the longest and most severe in Somalia’s recent history.

    Close to 23 million people are thought to be highly food insecure in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, according to a food security working group chaired by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

    Sadly, most of us in the western world don’t care about poor people on the other side of the globe.

    So let me give you an example from the western world.

    In the UK, the largest supermarkets are now strictly rationing many fruits and vegetables…

    The UK’s largest supermarket, Tesco, and discounter Aldi have said they are putting limits of three per customer on sales of tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers.

    Asda has capped sales of lettuces, salad bags, broccoli, cauliflowers and raspberry punnets to three per customer, along with tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers.

    And Morrisons has set limits of two on cucumbers, tomatoes, lettuces and peppers.

    And it is being reported that approximately 22 percent of all British households “skipped meals or even fasted for a whole day in January”…

    A British NGO has warned that as many as four million children are now in food poverty amid the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

    The survey on behalf of the Food Foundation, an NGO which promotes healthy eating, found that 22 percent households said they had skipped meals or even fasted for a whole day in January this year, an increase on the 12 percent reporting the same at the start of last year.

    This is really happening.

    But it can be really easy for those that still have plenty of food to turn a blind eye to the suffering of others.

    Sadly, this is just the beginning.

    As I prove in my new book, global food production will drop precipitously in the years ahead no matter what our leaders do now.

    We are running out of top soil, fertilizer supplies will become insanely tight in the years ahead, and trillions of extremely small particles of plastic are literally raining out of the sky on farms all over the planet.

    Many of our leaders understand what is going to happen, but they don’t want to alarm the general public.

    Those that are wise will see what is happening and will get prepared.

    Unfortunately, most of the population continues to assume that everything will magically work out just fine somehow, and so they will not be ready for the horrors that are ahead of us.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 03/03/2023 – 17:00

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