Jan 05

Today’s News 5th January 2023

  • New York Gun Control Law Unconstitutional: NY Supreme Court
    New York Gun Control Law Unconstitutional: NY Supreme Court

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    The New York law that enables the seizure of guns from people who haven’t committed a crime is unconstitutional, a state Supreme Court judge has ruled.

    This red flag law, or the Extreme Risk Protection Order law, lets individuals – including police officers – petition a court to allow the seizure of firearms from a person they believe poses a threat to themselves or others.

    If a judge agrees, the judge can direct law enforcement to take guns from the person in question.

    The law took effect in 2019 and has led to the issuance of more than 1,900 removal orders.

    But the law is in violation of the U.S. Constitution’s Second and Fourteenth Amendments because it doesn’t “sufficiently protect a citizen’s rights,” New York State Supreme Court Judge Thomas Moran said in a ruling in late December 2022.

    The red flag law, per an update in July 2022, states that police officers and district attorneys must file for a risk protection order “upon the receipt of credible information that an individual is likely to engage in conduct that would result in serious harm to himself, herself, or others.”

    The law points to a separate statute, the Mental Hygiene Law, that defines the likelihood to result in serious harm as “(1) substantial risk of physical harm to himself as manifested by threats of or attempts at suicide or serious bodily harm or other conduct demonstrating that he is dangerous to himself; or (2) a substantial risk of physical harm to other persons as manifested by homicidal or other violent behavior by which others are placed in reasonable fear of serious physical harm.”

    The Mental Hygiene Law requires a person to have been admitted involuntarily to a hospital and that a doctor has determined the person to be likely to cause serious harm. A second doctor must confirm the determination if the person is held in a facility for more than 48 hours. In contrast, the red flag law doesn’t require the involvement of medical personnel.

    “Why should respondents under the Mental Health Law be granted greater safeguards (such as having their case be reviewed by a physician with the educational background and experience to make such a determination) than matters pursuant to [the red flag law] in which ‘laypeople’ make such a determination?” Moran said.

    “These are similarly situated people (by legislative definition) but as such are not to be treated equally, nor afforded the same constitutional guarantees that protect all citizens of New York state.”

    Nonmedical workers such as police officers shouldn’t be authorized to determine if a person is likely to cause serious harm, according to the ruling.

    In addition, under the U.S. Supreme Court’s standards in its 2022 ruling striking down New York’s concealed carry law, the red flag law doesn’t fit under the nation’s tradition of regulating firearms, the judge said.

    The majority said in the 2022 decision that the Constitution protects people’s rights to carry firearms and that a government must, for each gun restriction, “demonstrate that the regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation.”

    “This Court is not unmindful of the dangers firearms may pose when possessed in the hands of a person suffering a mental illness, harboring a criminal intent, or both. However, when viewed objectively, [the law’s] goal of removing weapons from the otherwise lawful possession of them by their owners, without adequate constitutional safeguards, cannot be condoned by this Court,” Moran added later.

    “While some may advocate that ‘the ends justify the means’ in support of [the law], where those means violate a fundamental right under our Bill of Rights to achieve their ends, then the law, on it’s face, cannot stand.”

    The ruling only applies to the specific situation and doesn’t strike the law down statewide, a source familiar with the case said.

    Case

    The ruling came in a case brought by a woman, C.N., whose estranged boyfriend, G.W., lodged an application for the removal of guns from the woman. G.W. claimed that C.N. made statements indicating she’d harm herself with a gun if she had access to one.

    According to court documents, though, the petition inaccurately said the statements were made in 2022, but they were actually made no later than Feb. 27, 2021.

    The court granted the request and ordered the seizure of any weapons from C.N., in addition to prohibiting her from buying or possessing any guns. Additionally, the court suspended C.N.’s pistol permit based on the risk protection order and the allegations made against her.

    Daniel Strollo, an attorney representing C.N., said in a statement that he was “very happy” with Moran’s ruling.

    Strollo told WHAM-TV that the red flag law implemented a “very quick and easy mechanism to deprive somebody of their fundamental Second Amendment rights.”

    “You have people who are essentially not medical professionals expressing medical opinions that result in the deprivation of rights,” Strollo said.

    “And you have a procedure that essentially allows somebody to lose those rights without ever having gone in front of a judge.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 23:45

  • 12 Events To Watch For In 2023
    12 Events To Watch For In 2023

    Authored by Michael Wilkerson via The Epoch Times,

    The year 2022 was one of surprises: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, persistent inflation fueled by energy costs, the collapse of FTX and crypto markets, the revelations of the so-called Twitter Files, and one of the worst equity markets in recent history, to name but a few.

    The year 2023 is poised to present some equally challenging circumstances. Here are 12 trends, events, or surprises that may come to shape and define the year ahead.

    1) Inflation Returns

    I may be the minority report here, but I do not believe we’ve seen the end of—or worst of—inflation in the United States. I argue that following a lag in which price growth appears to moderate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation returns to the 8–12 percent range, where it persists for the rest of the year. This will be cost-push inflation, not demand-pull (see the second point below), and a lagging result of trebling the money supply in the United States since 2009. Stagflation returns, with the Misery Index (inflation plus unemployment) hitting new highs.

    2) The U.S. Economy Enters Recession

    This is a less controversial proposition at this stage, as most economists and analysts agree that recession looks highly probable for 2023. The first half of 2023 is likely to be characterized by negative GDP, rising unemployment, and an insecure consumer. The wave of layoffs which began in the tech sector in 2022 spreads to other industries and sectors, and migrates down from large-cap corporations like Meta and Amazon to small- and medium-sized enterprises which are disproportionately affected by the slowdown.

    3) European Energy Crisis Worsens

    While in the near term Western Europe may be spared the worst possible outcomes due to a mild winter, the underlying factors which led to the energy crisis haven’t been resolved. Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, made a Faustian bargain believing that it could abandon its coal industry and any nuclear aspiration and instead place their trust in the Russians—against all historical experience—and a green utopia. France similarly backed away from its path to energy independence—nuclear power—and are paying the price. While both have recently repented these misjudgments, the path to recovery will take years, not months. In the meantime, supply shortages will continue to plague these economies.

    4) Oil, Crypto, and Gold Perform

    Energy markets will continue their bull run for the foreseeable future as a result of continued supply disruptions and refinery constraints. Bitcoin and Ethereum emerge from a long, dark crypto winter, but altcoins remain frozen out. The dollar begins a long, if slow and turbulent, slide from 2022 highs, as peak demand from rapidly rising interest rates eases.

    5) Continued Rise of Resource Nationalism

    The unforgettable geopolitical lesson of the pandemic era has been that just-in-time supply-chain dependence on countries that many or may not have another nation’s interest at heart represents a dangerous strategic folly. It’s well and good that we learned this lesson when we did. Countries around the world are now aggressively working to realign their supply chains and ensure that they have strategic resources in adequate supply to meet unexpected, Black Swan events. Look for increasingly protectionist and nationalistic policies to dominate trade discussions.

    6) Traditional Global Alliances Break, New Ones Form

    Long-standing partnerships, such as the United States’s relationship with Saudi Arabia, have already begun to unravel. Expect further strengthening of the China and Russia-led alliance involving former U.S. allies, or at least non-aligned nations such as India, Turkey, South Africa, and Brazil. Most vulnerable to geopolitical shifts are countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America. Because of sanctions warfare and incoherent or at least inconsistent foreign policy, the United States ends up in a net deficit position, losing more friends than it gains in this process.

    7) U.S. Dollar Dominance Continues to Erode

    Hard money returns to favor, with commodity-backed currencies taking the spotlight. Alt payment systems, petrodollars being replaced with petrorubles or petroyuans, as well as central bank-issued digital currencies, will all conspire to slowly erode the U.S. dollar’s share of global financial and trade flows.

    8) The West, Weary of Cost of Ukraine War, Sues for Peace

    While it may not be realistic to think that Russia can bomb the Ukrainian people into submission, the increasing costs of supporting Ukraine’s war with Russia will challenge political leaders across the West. This fatigue will increase as more citizens start to ask reasonable questions about whether hundreds of billions of dollars or euros might not be better spent to take on some of the domestic economic and social challenges that these nations face at home. Eventually, Western governments and Putin each decide that a half a loaf is better than no loaf at all.

    9) Domino Effect of Exposure

    The recent uncovering of high-level frauds and corruptions involving U.S. government agencies and personnel continues. Increasing transparency leads to accountability. Eventually, the evidence becomes too overwhelming to ignore; arrests, trials, and convictions ensue. Congressional hearings lead to wave of resignations and first steps toward fundamental institutional reform.

    10) China Barks, but Doesn’t Bite, at Taiwan

    While we should expect the growling and barking to grow louder, with more frequent air space incursions, naval activity, intimidations, and outright threats, it is highly unlikely that China invades Taiwan in 2023. While China most certainly would prefer to confront Taiwan while the Biden administration remains in power, rather than face an improbable return of Donald Trump to the presidency, Xi Jingping’s government will conclude that they are not ready, militarily, politically, or otherwise, to invade Taiwan. Domestic issues, including a worsening economy and rising social unrest within mainland China, will mean that creating a row with the United States and other trading partners in the West remains untenable for the time being. While Russia might be able to make do without selling gas to Germany, there is no way the Chinese economy can survive if abruptly cuts itself off from the United States and Western Europe.

    11) Second-Half Rebound in Economy and Markets

    While I am not optimistic about the first half, I take great comfort in the breadth and resilience of the American economy. There is enormous unleashed latent potential in oil and gas, in manufacturing onshoring, in supply-chain realignment, and in new technologies such as AI, quantum computing, blockchain, and cold fusion.

    12) More of the Same

    What could derail a more V-shaped recovery are the same forces that helped bring the recession about: poor policy decisions that continue to damage our energy industry, keep our borders insecure, and fail to dismantle the out-of-control regulatory bureaucracy that is impeding innovation in energy, manufacturing, financial services, and technology. These are some of the largest sectors in the economy and those which have been most negatively affected by the Biden administration’s imprudent return to Obama-era economic policies.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 23:25

  • New Chinese Foreign Minister Seen As Xi's Attempt To Soften US-China Relations
    New Chinese Foreign Minister Seen As Xi’s Attempt To Soften US-China Relations

    Among the bigger developments out of Beijing this week impacting the future of US-China relations is the appointment of a new Chinese foreign minister.

    Last Friday the appointment was unveiled to be China’s ambassador to the United States Qin Gang, who will take over the top diplomatic post from former FM Wang Yi, recently removed by a decision of the National People’s Congress Sanding Committee.

    Bloomberg and others noted he represents a “softer” side of Beijing’s stance toward America, already said to have been on display during his relatively short tenure in Washington for the past seventeen months.

    Source: Chinese Embassy in the US

    In the past two days the new Chinese FM has even grabbed the attention of Western press by tweeting out that he’s “deeply impressed” by the American people, while vowing to push forward US-China relations in a positive way. 

    “I want to pay sincere thanks to the people of the United States for the strong support and assistance given to me and the Chinese Embassy during this period,” Qin tweeted Monday evening (US time).

    “I have been deeply impressed by so many hard-working, friendly and talented American people that I met,” Qin added, saying he had “made many friends across the US.” He pledged to “support the growth of China-US relations” in his capacity as China’s top diplomat. 

    The replacement of former FM Wang, who had served as foreign minister for almost a decade, is being widely seen as a sign that President Xi Jinping wants to urgently repair fraying relations with the US and the West more broadly.

    Interestingly, prior words of Qin are now being widely reported related to the Ukraine war. He was recently on record as expressing that China would have attempted to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine if it had known about it. This is in contrast to some US officials and media reports which claim Beijing knew about the invasions plans and turned a blind eye.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Qin has also in the past downplayed the idea that China wants reunification of Taiwan by force, in line with Beijing’s official position. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 23:05

  • 100 Million Americans To Be On Medicaid By March, Think Tank Projects
    100 Million Americans To Be On Medicaid By March, Think Tank Projects

    Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

    Up to 100 million Americans will soon be enrolled in Medicaid, according to an enrollment monitoring project by the Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA), a think tank focused on welfare and health care policy.

    On Dec. 28, FGA announced it believes that the number of Americans enrolled with Medicaid will cross the 100 million mark in about 76 days, or approximately March 14. The Naples, Florida-based think tank also launched a countdown clock for the date they project Medicaid enrollment to hit 100 million.

    According to Medicaid.gov data, through August 2022, some 90,550,412 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

    FGA compiled more recent state-by-state Medicaid enrollment figures showing 96.2 million Americans are now enrolled in the government health care program. Based on the state-by-state growth trends, FGA projects 98.9 million Americans will be enrolled in Medicaid by the end of January and another 1.1 million Americans will be enrolled in the program by mid-March.

    FGA Warns of ‘Grim’ Medicaid Milestone

    “For years, FGA has been warning about the rising number of people on government welfare programs,” said Hayden Dublois, the data and analytics director for FGA.

    “Now, we’re nearing a grim milestone—nearly one-third of the country will be on Medicaid. Our research and data show as welfare enrollment increases, workforce participation decreases. We’re in the midst of a nationwide workforce crisis, yet the Biden administration is pushing policies to entice people into government dependency at record levels while limiting opportunities to achieve the American Dream.”

    According to the FGA, the rise in Medicaid enrollment is due in large part to federal COVID-19 public health emergency policies, like the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA). The pandemic-era measures provide states with extra Medicaid funding but block states from being able to change their eligibility and enrollment procedures and require that everyone currently enrolled in the program remain in place.

    FGA estimates that an additional 24 million enrollees are on Medicaid as a result of the pandemic-era measures, including more than 21 million people who would have previously been disqualified from the health care program.

    $1.7 Trillion Omnibus Lets States Change Medicaid Enrollment After April 1

    While pandemic-era federal policies locked states in with their current Medicaid enrollments, the $1.7 trillion federal omnibus bill to fund government provision allows states to redetermine Medicaid eligibility starting on April 1.

    “While there are many concerning provisions in this omnibus spending bill, we’re optimistic states may soon regain control of their Medicaid programs and reverse two years of unchecked enrollment growth,” said FGA President and CEO Tarren Bragdon.

    “FGA has championed Medicaid reform to combat the devasting impact pandemic-era policies have had on the American economy and workforce. If this provision is enacted, states must step up and start redeterminations as soon as possible—our struggling economy and weakened workforce depend on it.”

    While the omnibus allows states to resume their Medicaid eligibility checks, the provision also means that millions of people could soon be kicked off the government health care program.

    “This is a positive for states in terms of planning, however, this will come at the cost of some individuals losing their health care,” Massey Whorley, a principal at health consulting firm Avalere, told The Associated Press.

    The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates between 5.3 million and 14.2 million Medicaid recipients could be disenrolled after the pandemic-era continuous enrollment requirement ends on April 1.

    Robin Rudowitz, the director of Medicaid at KFF, advised Medicaid recipients to make sure their contact information is up to date on their accounts and check their mail frequently for any notices of changes to their Medicaid eligibility.

    “There is likely to be people who fall through the cracks,” Rudowitz told The Associated Press.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 22:45

  • Taibbi: Summaries Of All 'Twitter Files' To Date
    Taibbi: Summaries Of All ‘Twitter Files’ To Date

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

    It’s January 4th, 2023, which means Twitter Files stories have been coming out for over a month. Because these are weedsy tales, and may be hard to follow if you haven’t from the beginning, I’ve written up capsule summaries of each of the threads by all of the Twitter Files reporters, and added links to the threads and accounts of each. At the end, in response to some readers (especially foreign ones) who’ve found some of the alphabet-soup government agency names confusing, I’ve included a brief glossary of terms to help as well.

    In order, the Twitter Files threads:

    1. Twitter Files Part 1: December 2, 2022, by @mtaibbi

      TWITTER AND THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY

      Recounting the internal drama at Twitter surrounding the decision to block access to a New York Post exposé on Hunter Biden in October, 2020.

      Key revelations: Twitter blocked the story on the basis of its “hacked materials” policy, but executives internally knew the decision was problematic. “Can we truthfully claim that this is part of the policy?” is how comms official Brandon Borrman put it. Also: when a Twitter contractor polls members of Congress about the decision, they hear Democratic members want more moderation, not less, and “the First Amendment isn’t absolute.”

      1a. Twitter Files Supplemental, December 6, 2022, by @mtaibbi

      THE “EXITING” OF TWITTER DEPUTY GENERAL COUNSEL JIM BAKER

      A second round of Twitter Files releases was delayed, as new addition Bari Weiss discovers former FBI General Counsel and Twitter Deputy General Counsel Jim Baker was reviewing the first batches of Twitter Files documents, whose delivery to reporters had slowed.

    2. Twitter Files Part 2, by @BariWeiss, December 8, 2022

      TWITTER’S SECRET BLACKLISTS

      Bari Weiss gives a long-awaited answer to the question, “Was Twitter shadow-banning people?” It did, only the company calls it “visibility filtering.” Twitter also had a separate, higher council called SIP-PES that decided cases for high-visibility, controversial accounts.

      Key revelations: Twitter had a huge toolbox for controlling the visibility of any user, including a “Search Blacklist” (for Dan Bongino), a “Trends Blacklist” for Stanford’s Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, and a “Do Not Amplify” setting for conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Weiss quotes a Twitter employee: “Think about visibility filtering as being a way for us to suppress what people see to different levels. It’s a very powerful tool.” With help from @abigailshrier, @shellenbergermd, @nelliebowles, and @isaacgrafstein.

    3. Twitter Files, Part 3, by @mtaibbi, December 9, 2022

      THE REMOVAL OF DONALD TRUMP, October 2020 – January 6th, 2021

      First in a three-part series looking at how Twitter came to the decision to suspend Donald Trump. The idea behind the series is to show how all of Twitter’s “visibility filtering” tools were on display and deployed after January 6th, 2021. Key Revelations: Trust and Safety chief Yoel Roth not only met regularly with the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, but with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Also, Twitter was aggressively applying “visibility filtering” tools to Trump well before the election.

    4. Twitter Files Part 4, by @ShellenbergerMD, December 10, 2022

      THE REMOVAL OF DONALD TRUMP, January 7th, 2021

      This thread by Michael Shellenberger looks at the key day after the J6 riots and before Trump would ultimately be banned from Twitter on January 8th, showing how Twitter internally reconfigured its rules to make a Trump ban fit their policies.

      Key revelations: at least one Twitter employee worried about a “slippery slope” in which “an online platform CEO with a global presence… can gatekeep speech for the entire world,” only to be shot down. Also, chief censor Roth argues for a ban on congressman Matt Gaetz even though it “doesn’t quite fit anywhere (duh),” and Twitter changed its “public interest policy” to clear a path for Trump’s removal.

    5. Twitter Files Part 5, by @BariWeiss, December 11, 2022

      THE REMOVAL OF DONALD TRUMP, January 8th, 2021

      As angry as many inside Twitter were with Donald Trump after the January 6th Capitol riots, staffers struggled to suspend his account, saying things like, “I think we’d have a hard time saying this is incitement.” As documented by Weiss, they found a way to pull the trigger anyway.

      Key revelations: there were dissenters in the company (“Maybe because I am from China,” said one employee, “I deeply understand how censorship can destroy the public conversation”), but are overruled by senior executives like Vijaya Gadde and Roth, who noted many on Twitter’s staff were citing the “Banality of Evil,” and comparing those who favored sticking to a strict legalistic interpretation of Twitter’s rules — i.e. keep Trump, who had “no violation” — to “Nazis following orders.”

    6. Twitter Files Part 6, by @mtaibbi, December 16, 2022

      TWITTER, THE FBI SUBSIDIARY

      Twitter’s contact with the FBI was “constant and pervasive,” as FBI personnel, mainly in the San Francisco field office, regularly sent lists of “reports” to Twitter, often about Americans with low follower counts making joke tweets. Tweeters on both the left and the right were affected.

      Key revelations: A senior Twitter executive reports, “FBI was adamant no impediments to sharing” classified information exist. Twitter also agreed to “bounce” content on the recommendations of a wide array of governmental and quasi-governmental actors, from the FBI to the Homeland Security agency CISA to Stanford’s Election Integrity Project to state governments. The company one day received so many moderation requests from the FBI, an executive congratulated staffers at the end for completing the “monumental undertaking.”

    7. Twitter Files Part 7, by @ShellenbergerMD, December 19, 2022

      THE FBI AND HUNTER BIDEN’S LAPTOP

      The Twitter Files story increases its focus on the company’s relationship to federal law enforcement and intelligence, and shows intense communication between the FBI and Twitter just before the release of the Post’s Hunter Biden story.

      Key Revelations: San Francisco agent Elvis Chan “sends 10 documents to Twitter’s then-Head of Site Integrity, Yoel Roth, through Teleporter, a one-way communications channel from the FBI to Twitter,” the evening before the release of the Post story. Also, Baker in an email explains Twitter was compensated for “processing requests” by the FBI, saying “I am happy to report we have collected $3,415,323 since October 2019!”

    The ten teleporter documents referred to in Mike Shellenberger’s FBI thread.

    1. Twitter Files Part 8, by @lhfang, December 20, 2022

      HOW TWITTER QUIETLY AIDED THE PENTAGON’S COVERT ONLINE PSYOP CAMPAIGN

      Lee Fang takes a fascinating detour, looking at how Twitter for years approved and supported Pentagon-backed covert operations. Noting the company explicitly testified to Congress that it didn’t allow such behavior, the platform nonetheless was a clear partner in state-backed programs involving fake accounts.

      Key revelations: after the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) sent over a list of 52 Arab-language accounts “we use to amplify certain messages,” Twitter agreed to “whitelist” them. Ultimately the program would be outed in the Washington Post in 2022 — two years after Twitter and other platforms stopped assisting — but contrary to what came out in those reports, Twitter knew about and/or assisted in these programs for at least three years, from 2017-2020.

      Lee wrote a companion piece for the Intercept here:

    2. Twitter Files Part 9, by @mtaibbi, December 24th, 2022

      TWITTER AND “OTHER GOVERNMENT AGENCIES”

      The Christmas Eve thread (I should have waited a few days to publish!) further details how the channels of communication between the federal government and Twitter operated, and reveals that Twitter directly or indirectly received lists of flagged content from “Other Government Agencies,” i.e. the CIA.

      Key revelations: CIA officials attended at least one conference with Twitter in the summer of 2020, and companies like Twitter and Facebook received “OGA briefings,” at their regular “industry” meetings held in conjunction with the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security. The FBI and the “Foreign Influence Task Force” met regularly “not just with Twitter, but with Yahoo!, Twitch, Cloudfare, LinkedIn, even Wikimedia.”

    3. Twitter Files Part 10, by @DavidZweig, December 28, 2022

      HOW TWITTER RIGGED THE COVID DEBATE

      David Zweig drills down into how Twitter throttled down information about COVID that was true but perhaps inconvenient for public officials, “discrediting doctors and other experts who disagreed.”

      Key Revelations: Zweig found memos from Twitter personnel who’d liaised with Biden administration officials who were “very angry” that Twitter had not deplatformed more accounts. White House officials for instance wanted attention on reporter Alex Berenson. Zweig also found “countless” instances of Twitter banning or labeling “misleading” accounts that were true or merely controversial. A Rhode Island physician named Andrew Bostom, for instance, was suspended for, among other things, referring to the results of a peer-reviewed study on mRNA vaccines.

    4. and

    5. Twitter Files Parts 11 and 12, by @mtaibbi, January 3, 2023

      HOW TWITTER LET THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IN

      and

      TWITTER AND THE FBI “BELLY BUTTON”

      These two threads focus respectively on the second half of 2017, and a period stretching roughly from summer of 2020 through the present. The first describes how Twitter fell under pressure from Congress and the media to produce “material” showing a conspiracy of Russian accounts on their platform, and the second shows how Twitter tried to resist fulfilling moderation requests for the State Department, but ultimately agreed to let State and other agencies send requests through the FBI, which agent Chan calls “the belly button of the USG.” Revelations: at the close of 2017, Twitter makes a key internal decision. Outwardly, the company would claim independence and promise that content would only be removed at “our sole discretion.” The internal guidance says, in writing, that Twitter will remove accounts “identified by the U.S. intelligence community” as “identified by the U.S.. intelligence community as a state-sponsored entity conducting cyber-operations.”

      The second thread shows how Twitter took in requests from everyone — Treasury, HHS, NSA, FBI, DHS, etc. — and also received personal requests from politicians like Democratic congressman Adam Schiff, who asked to have journalist Paul Sperry suspended.

    GLOSSARY OF “TWITTER FILES” TERMS

    1. Government Agencies and NGOs

      CISA: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, an agency within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

      CENTCOM: Central Command of the Armed Forces

      ODNI: Office of the Director of National Intelligence

      FITF: Foreign Influence Task Force, a cyber-regulatory agency comprised of members of the FBI, DHS, and ODNI

      “OGA”: Other Government Agency, colloquially — CIA

      GEC: Global Engagement Center, an analytical division of the U.S. State Department

      USIC: United States intelligence community

      HSIN: Homeland Security Information Network, a portal through which states and other official bodies can send “flagged” accounts

      EIP: Election Integrity Project, a cyber-laboratory based at Stanford University that sends many reports to Twitter

      DFR: Digital Forensic Research lab, an outlet that performs a similar function to the EIP, only is funded by the Atlantic Council

      IRA: Internet Research Agency, the infamous Russian “troll farm” headed by “Putin’s chef,” Yevgheny Prigozhin

       

    2. Twitter or Industry-specific terms

      PII: Can have two meanings. “Personally identifiable information” is self-explanatory, while a “Public Interest Interstitial” is a warning placed over a tweet, so that it cannot be seen. Twitter personnel even use “interstitial” as a verb, as in, “Can we interstitial that?”

      JIRA: Twitter’s internal ticketing system, through which complaints rise and are decided

      PV2: The system used at Twitter to view the profile of any user, to check easily if it has flags like “Trends Blacklist”

      SIP-PES Site Integrity Policy — Policy Escalation Support. SIP-PES is like Twitter’s version of a moderation Supreme Court, dealing with the most high-profile, controversial rulings

      SI: Site integrity. Key term that you’ll see repeately in Twitter email traffic, especially with “escalations,” i.e. tweets or content that have been reported for moderation review

      CHA: Coordinated Harmful Activity

      SRT: Strategic Response Team

      GET: Global Escalation Team

      VF: Visibility Filtering

      GUANO: Tool in Twitter’s internal system that keeps a chronological record of all actions taken on an account

      VIT: Very Important Tweeter. Really.

      GoV: Glorificaiton of Violence

      BOT: In the moderation content, an individualized heuristic attached to an account that moderates certain behavior automatically

      BME: Bulk Media Exploitation

      EP Abuse: Episodic abuse

      PCF: Parity, commentary and fan accounts. “PCF” sometimes appears as a reason an account has escaped an automated moderation process, under a limited exception

      FLC: Forced Login Challenge. Also called a “phone challenge,” it’s a way Twitter attempts to verify if an account is real or automated. “Phone challenges” are seen repeatedly in discussions about verification of suspected “Russia-linked” accounts

      IO: Information Operations, as in The GEC’s mandate for offensive IO to promote American interests.

    This page will be kept open and updated as needed. If you have questions about terms, please send them to taibbi@substack.com

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 22:25

  • FBI Agent Who Destroyed Evidence To Indict GOP Sen. May Get Wrist-Slap
    FBI Agent Who Destroyed Evidence To Indict GOP Sen. May Get Wrist-Slap

    Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA (emphasis ours),

    With his sentencing scheduled for Thursday, disgraced FBI agent Robert Cessario seeks probation for illegally destroying evidence related to the prosecution of a former Republican Arkansas state senator—but critics say prison time is necessary to fight corruption in the federal justice system.

    Connie Davies, pictured holding the ‘FBI LIED’ banner, participates in a rally in Arkansas on Tuesday to hold the FBI accountable for destroying evidence in its case against former state Sen. Jon Woods. / PHOTO: Courtesy of Connie Davies

    Cessario’s crime stems from the 2018 trial of former Arkansas state senator Jon Woods, a Republican, who was convicted of mail fraud and wire fraud charges and sentenced to roughly 18 years imprisonment. Woods was accused of participating in a scheme in which he accepted kickbacks in exchange for steering state grants to a small college in the state.

    During discovering proceedings in the Woods trial, prosecutors ordered Cessario to turn over his laptop for a forensic examination. However, the former FBI agent lied to prosecutors, telling them he previously erased the laptop’s hard drive. Then, prior to delivering the laptop for examination, he paid professionals to erase the laptop’s hard drive.

    Cessario was terminated from the FBI for his crime, and he pleaded guilty in August to destroying evidence related to the case against Woods.

    Nevertheless, the Eighth District Court of Appeals upheld Woods’s conviction, ruling that the “evidence of the conspiracy [against Woods] was overwhelming,” despite the FBI’s conduct.

    Cessario faces up to 20 years in prison. Last month, his attorney argued for one year of probation in lieu of a prison sentence in a brief to U.S. District Judge P. K. Holmes III.

    In his brief, Cessario’s attorney cited the case of former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, who was sentenced to one year probation for altering evidence in the Russiagate investigation.

    He also cited the case of former FBI agent William Tisaby, who received a suspended sentence of one year probation after pleading guilty earlier this year to tampering with evidence in the investigation of former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens.

    “Both the Clinesmith and the Tisaby cases involve conduct that is not only substantially similar with the conduct underlying this charge against Robert Cessario, but the conduct of each of these two defendants appears to be almost exactly in line with the conduct of the defendant Cessario,” Cessario’s attorney wrote in the Dec. 12 sentencing brief.

    The U.S. government responded to Cessario’s brief three days later, agreeing that probation is an appropriate sentence for the former FBI agent.

    “The government has no evidence suggesting that the defendant had any reason for wiping the computer other than his expressed one, which was to remove sensitive personal and family information on the computer,” prosecutors wrote in their Dec. 15 brief. “As such, the government concludes that a sentence of probation will accomplish the sentencing factors.”

    However, conservative activists are calling for Cessario to be incarcerated for his crime. Those activists, including Connie Davies and Patsy Wootton, held a rally Tuesday in Arkansas to demand justice against Cessario.

    “If he gets away with this, what message are we sending to other FBI agents? What message are we sending to the American people who are held to a higher standard?” Davies told Headline USA in an interview following the rally. “If there’s no consequence for this kind of action, we’re in trouble.”

    Davies said the data Cessario erased from his laptop could have included exonerating evidence for Woods. She noted that even the Washington DC-based National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers – not known for taking up conservative causes – has criticized Cessario’s conduct in the Woods case as a gross violation of due process.

    Davies said she finds it plausible that Woods was targeted by the FBI over his outspoken support of then-candidate Donald Trump. Woods was the only Arkansas elected official to support Trump during the 2016 Republican primaries.

    Woods, who is serving his sentence at a minimum-security federal correctional institution in Texas, said his ordeal is part of God’s plan.

    “I did get steamrolled, but I prayed about it and I was overcome with peace to fight … When I began to stand up for myself, the agent on my case started to act strange and then broke the law,” Woods said in a statement provided by Davies. “The agent will be sentenced Jan. 5. I do not know God’s plan, but I do know I am where He wants me for the time being until something changes.”

    The FBI’s sordid history of tampering with and destroying evidence dates back decades, as chronicled by authors John Kelly and Phillip Wearne in their book, “Tainting Evidence : Behind the Scandals at the FBI Crime Lab.”  This book features interviews and records from former FBI crime-lab scientist Fred Whitehurst, who came out as a whistleblower in the 1990s about the bureau’s mishandling of evidence.

    Whitehurst revealed that the FBI mishandled evidence in prominent investigations into the Unabomber, O.J. Simpson, and the Oklahoma City bombing cases. The Department of Justice’s Office of Inspector General found some of Whitehurst’s key allegations to be substantiated in an April 1997 report.

    Follow Ken Silva on Twitter.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 22:05

  • "The Leech Class": Pulling America Back From The Precipice
    “The Leech Class”: Pulling America Back From The Precipice

    Authored by Matthew Brouillette via RealClear Wire,

    It’s not often than a CEO of a large, publicly traded company speaks bluntly in public about politics and political power. So, both “surprising” and “refreshing” describe energy executive Nick Deiuliis’s new book, Precipice: The Left’s Campaign to Destroy America (Republic Book Publishers).

    Deiuliis, a chemical engineer and attorney by training, is director and chief executive officer of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based CNX Resources Corporation, one of the largest natural gas exploration, development, and production companies.

    In addition to penning Precipice, Deiuliis is a prolific writer on topics ranging from the American Civil War to professional sports to the Federal Reserve to music. When he’s not writing, he hosts “The Far Middle,” a weekly podcast that tackles topics including energy, business, politics, culture, sports, and more.

    In short, Deiuliis does not fit the stereotype of the CEO of a publicly traded company. 

    As an energy leader, Deiuliis is an unapologetic advocate for his industry, and he makes a strong case that abundant and affordable energy is indispensable for developing and prosperous civilizations.

    But his book’s subtitle – “The Left’s Campaign to Destroy America” – best captures Precipice’s focus, which extends far beyond the energy industry. Deiuliis identifies four categories of members of modern society: “Creators,” “Enablers,” “Servers,” and “Leeches.”

    Creators generate the wealth that leads to the civilization’s success. These include the scientists, surgeons, engineers, techies, manufacturers, constructors, and members of the building trades, who provide the foundation for any modern society.  

    Enablers support the Creators. They are the accountants, nurses, data clerks, financiers, bus drivers, and clerical workers. Their professions increase Creators’ efficiency.

    Servers make up the largest societal member group and include those who improve the quality of life for individuals and increase efficiency for everyone – from the waitress in a restaurant to the mechanic who fixes your car to the landscaper who mows your lawn. Servers do the jobs you might be able to do yourself but are willing to pay someone else to do in order to free yourself up for other things.

    Finally, Leeches, as their name suggests, live off the productivity of a host – with the hosts in this case being the members of the other three groups.

    These four groups are not exactly the lens through which most Americans observe their society, but perhaps they should be. Deiuliis offers a unique and invaluable framework for understanding the basis of economic activity in America today.

    Not surprisingly, while Deiuliis celebrates the first three member groups, he has disdain for the fourth category, the Leech. While the first three groups “built and fuel a culture of making” and make the world go round, the Leech “stands in stark contrast to and in direct conflict” with the first three and undermines the American Dream.

    The Leech class is deeply embedded across multiple industries – members of the plaintiffs’ bar, who use the law against social flourishing; public sector unions (particularly teachers’ unions) that use tax dollars to thwart the public interest; members of the media, who act as a public relations arm for government, and members of academia, who formulate many of the premises on which leech-ism depends. But Deiuliis argues that the most troubling leeches are found in government bureaucracies. While he recognizes the need for rules and regulations, he argues that the government Leech has gone far beyond simply serving and protecting the public; he has crossed the line into making the lives of everyone more difficult.

    The Leech class, Deiuliis writes, is destroying America—strategically.  

    Deiuliis also makes the case that our modern economy rests on four pillars: energy, finance, healthcare, and technology. Leeches target these pillars with the primary objective of controlling them, a process Deiuliis goes into great detail to explain. Creators, Enablers, and Servers suffer the negative consequences of these attacks.

    Precipice is admittedly a depressing reality check on the state of America – but it is much needed. As President Ronald Reagan once said, “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.”

    Creators, Enablers, and Servers have made America the freest, most prosperous nation in history. The Leeches threaten that freedom and prosperity. Deiuliis’s conclusion is prescient: “We know who the enemy is; let us engage in public discourse so that good prevails over evil.” Indeed, if we don’t, America will soon go over the precipice – and into the history books, joining many other once-great civilizations.

    Precipice is an eye-opening read for business leaders, policymakers, and anyone who cherishes the liberties that define America.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 21:45

  • Police Failures In Philadelphia Have Made Private Policing More Attractive
    Police Failures In Philadelphia Have Made Private Policing More Attractive

    Authored by Tate Fegley via The Mises Institute,

    While “private policing” is in many people’s minds a feature of dystopian science fiction or the fantasies of libertarian economists, the reality is that private security is far more common than most think. Indeed, as Georgetown professor John Hasnas points out, it is all around us. Unfortunately, the impetus for much of the growth in the private security industry has been the inadequacies of state-provided protection.

    An example of this phenomenon is JNS Protection Services, which recently garnered attention in the Philadelphia Inquirer. JNS provides a variety of security services in Georgia and Pennsylvania, including North Philadelphia, where Temple University is located.

    Temple Students living off campus fear for their safety. This is understandable, considering the amount of crime North Philadelphia is experiencing. On November 28, 2021, Temple senior Samuel Collington was fatally shot in a parking lot near campus during what appears to have been an attempted robbery. Less than two weeks earlier, on November 16, high school senior Ahmir Jones was also killed during a robbery attempt just blocks from Temple. In 2021, Philadelphia as a whole surpassed its murder record; the previous peak of over five hundred murders annually was during the crack cocaine epidemic of the early 1990s.

    After a broad-daylight armed robbery took place outside one student’s residence, his mother decided to hire JNS to patrol his neighborhood. Although JNS was initially hired to patrol the area three days per week, the plan came to the attention of a Facebook group of Temple parents, and they contributed funds to expand the service to five days per week.

    An opinion column detailing the events included a former Philadelphia police officer’s views on parents’ move to hire private security:

    “They’re just a town watch,” pointed out David Fisher, a retired Philadelphia police officer and president of the National Black Police Association, Greater Philadelphia chapter.

    “They are more eyes and ears on the streets that they’re patrolling. It’s good. But will it be effective? I’m not sure.”

    While we would not expect Fisher to apologize on behalf the Philadelphia Police Department for failing to maintain public safety to such an extent that the parents of students at a premier research university feel the need to hire private security, his condescending attitude is notable for two reasons.

    • The first is that it provides further evidence suggesting that, despite the rhetoric and billions spent on community-oriented policing (COP), a significant contingent of police officers never bought into it and its emphasis on police-community partnerships. Rather, COP became popular among police departments mainly because of the gibs being handed out by the Department of Justice. Instead of being a vital component in the production of public safety, nonpolice are “just a town watch” who are, at best, “more eyes and ears on the streets” that can be useful to the real police.

    • The second reason is that while Fisher expressed concerns over whether private security will be effective, the Philadelphia Police Department is able to escape such scrutiny despite the record number of murders and students being killed by armed robbers. In contrast to JNS Protection Services, the city police do not have to demonstrate their effectiveness to Philadelphians in order to get paid. Local (as well as US) taxpayers will continue to fund them regardless.

    Perhaps parents will find that JNS’s services are ineffective or unsatisfactory. Perhaps a competitor will provide a better service at a lower price. But just as school choice creates financial incentives for public schools that give parents more control, security providers are more responsive when parents have police choice.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 21:25

  • Macron Pledges 'First Western Tanks' To Ukraine While US Mulls Bradley Fighting Vehicles
    Macron Pledges ‘First Western Tanks’ To Ukraine While US Mulls Bradley Fighting Vehicles

    French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced he intends to send ‘light tanks’ to Ukraine, which will make France the first to supply Western-manufactured tanks to the conflict, after some like Poland earlier transferred Soviet tanks. 

    While NATO allies have gradually increased the sophistication of weaponry shipped to Kiev, including longer range missiles and more recently Patriot systems approved by the US, they have stopped short of sending either tanks or fighter jets, largely on fears of Moscow expanding the war in response.

    “The president wanted to increase… aid” to Ukraine “by accepting to deliver AMX-10 RC light tanks” – a Macron aide told reporters following the French leader holding a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

    AMX-10RC tank, via Wiki Commons

    The AFP has described the French-made AMX-10 RC as an older light model tanks which the French infantry used in the 1980s, but has since been phased out. It is six-wheeled and not on tracks, thus it’s sometimes called a “wheeled tank” – but has a powerful 105 mm gun on a turret. 

    Among other medium and heavy equipment, France and other countries have already delivered armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, so this appears the next step up, perhaps paving the way to heavier more conventional tanks to match Russia’s significant tank forces.

    Previously, Poland and the Czech Republic have sent Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine, even as Western Europe and the US were reluctant. 

    As for the United States, the Biden administration is mulling sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukrainian forces, with the president responding “yes” to a journalist’s question Wednesday when asked about prior reporting… 

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    Bloomberg was the first to report last week that “The US government is considering sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine as part of a further package of military support, according to people familiar with the matter.”

    “A final decision hasn’t yet been made, one of the people said,” the report said. “When the vehicles would be operational is also unclear, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.” Biden on Wednesday officially confirmed the deliberations are underway.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 21:05

  • Kevin McCarthy And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
    Kevin McCarthy And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

    Update (2100ET): Kevin McCarthy has now suffered defeat six times in his bid to become House Speaker.

    His allies are spending Wednesday night trying to appeal to at least 20 holdouts who have blocked his bid for a second day.

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    After taking a several-hour break on Wednesday to stall any further votes, the House quickly voted to adjourn until Noon on Thursday – with all Democrats and four Republicans voting against the pause.

    The motion to adjourn was made by GOP Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, while the four GOP lawmakers who opposed adjournment were Reps. Andy Biggs, Lauren Bobert, Matt Gaetz and Rep.-elect Eli Crane.

    When the House meets again on Thursday it will hold its seventh round of votes for speaker.

    Of note, the House cannot conduct any other business until a speaker is elected – including swearing in new members.

    On the holdout side, Rep. Chip Roy thinks he can get 10 anti-McCarthy reps to change their tune if ongoing negotiations pan out, according to CNN, citing GOP sources familiar with the internal discussions. Additional detractors may be willing to vote ‘present,’ reducing the number of votes McCarthy needs to succeed. 

    According to the report, the talks between McCarthy allies and holdouts have been the ‘most productive and serious ones to date.’

    *  *  *

    Update (1640ET): The House has adjourned until 8 p.m. ET Wednesday after failing to receive a majority of the vote for a sixth time.

    Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana once again voted present, making the threshold for McCarthy to win 217.

    The final tally – which was unchanged from the previous two votes, was:

    • 212 for Jeffries
    • 201 for McCarthy
    • 20 for Donalds
    • 1 present vote

    Update (1620ET): Kevin McCarthy appears set to lose yet another round of voting for House Speaker.

    That said, in a potentially positive development for McCarthy, Rep. Chip Roy said there have been ‘productive’ negotiations over the past two hours, according to CNN, who added that he expects to be part of Wednesday evening negotiations.

    Roy added that he is not a ‘hard no’ on McCarthy, and that the GOP conference is “trying to repair that damage today, and progress has been made.”

    CNN is also reporting that Republicans are considering appointing four members each from the pro/anti McCarthy camps to negotiate a path forward.

    One Democratic lawmaker also tells CNN they overheard Rep. Jim Jordan tell members huddled on the House floor that McCarthy wants each side to appoint four members to negotiate after this sixth round of voting for House speaker.

    The huddle came after McCarthy lost a fifth bid to secure the speakership, as a group of 20 Republicans remain opposed to the California Republican for the top position. –CNN

    An earlier version of this report briefly included an statement wrongly attributed to Former President Trump indicating he had withdrawn support for McCarthy. That has been removed and the post updated.

    *  *  *

    Update (1441ET): And just like that, McCarthy loses a the fifth round for House Speaker. The vote was identical to the fourth round.

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    According to CNN‘s Manu Raju, Rep. Byron Donalds says he’s spoken with McCarthy and plans to speak with him again today.

    He declined to comment when asked if McCarthy should drop out.

    House Republicans are at a contentious stalemate over who will serve as the next speaker amid what appears to be hardened opposition to McCarthy from a group of 20 conservatives who voted for Donalds in today’s first vote.

    He told CNN that the chief demand is to allow just one member to call for a vote seeking a speaker’s ouster.

    That is down from the five-member threshold that McCarthy has proposed, which is lower than conference rules that sets it at half the conference. -CNN

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    Earlier in the day, GOP Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado says he’s had a “number of conversations” with McCarthy – and told him that he needs to cut a deal with the opposing GOP members or step aside.

    “I said to Kevin at some point, you know, you’ve got to make sure you gotta either cut a deal or you’ve got to give Steve [Scalise] a chance or others a chance to see if they can put it together. My feeling is Kevin gets more votes than anybody else,” Buck told reporters outside the House chamber.

    “There are a few of those 20 that just aren’t going to vote for Kevin McCarthy but would vote for somebody else. There are some of the others … who want changes in the rules and there are some others who care about policy. I think if Steve meets those three needs, he will be able to move forward and take the speakership,” he then told CNN‘s Dana Bash, adding that “today the conference as a whole needs to make a decision” as the House is in a “state of disarray and chaos.“

    *  *  *

    Update (1415ET): And once again, McCarthy lacks the votes in the fifth round.

    *  *  *

    Update (1320ET): McCarthy has officially lost again after a fourth round of voting for Speaker – garnering just 201 votes out of the 218 required. For reference, he received 203 votes in the first round.

    Interestingly, Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, who previously voted for McCarthy, voted ‘present’ in the fourth round.

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    Democrats voted unanimously (and symbolically) for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

    Via CNN

    According to Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, McCarthy is ‘losing it.’

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    And now, for the fifth round…

    *  *  *

    Update (1130ET): Kevin McCarthy and his allies are actively discussing adjourning the House until Thursday, but might not even have the votes to pull that off, CNN reports, citing multiple sources.

    McCarthy and crew are worried that they could lose more votes if they go to a fourth ballot, which would completely undermine their claims of regaining momentum. At present, they lack the votes to move forward.

    In order to adjourn the House, however, they need 218 votes – which they don’t have.

    Their hope is that furious negotiations that have happened since yesterday evening through this morning have peeled away some of the no-votes and given McCarthy forward momentum ahead of a critical fourth ballot. But, he is still unlikely to get 218 votes on that ballot to win the speakership. 

    Here’s why a vote to adjourn might fail: Voting to adjourn would require 218 votes, and Democratic sources say they would actively whip against a motion to adjourn. Plus some Republicans will likely vote against it as well. -CNN

    If they can’t adjourn, the vote goes to a fourth ballot.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), meanwhile, called Trump’s endorsement of McCarthy “Sad!” in a Wednesday statement to Fox News, adding “This changes neither my view of McCarthy, nor Trump, nor my vote.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Oh – and the Democrats are about to pour salt in McCarthy’s wound if he tries to adjourn.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    After yesterday’s chaos at the House, which saw support for Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) increasingly wane throughout three failed votes for Speaker, the House begins Wednesday in a state of crisis.

    Roughly 10% of the Republican conference has voted against McCarthy, leaving him 16 votes shy of a win.

    As such, no Speaker means no committees, and no rules. As Punchbowl News notes, “There are members-elect, but the chaos Tuesday prevented any lawmakers from being officially sworn in. Nothing resembling this has occurred in more than a century.”

    Indeed, McCarthy appears to be on the ropes – with 20 GOP lawmakers sitting staunchly opposed to the California lawmaker, led by Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL), Chip Roy (TX) and Scott Perry (PA).

    As one reader notes…

    On Tuesday night, Roy appeared on Fox News‘ “Ingraham Angle’ where he accused McCarthy of rejecting a list of conservative demands regarding committee assignments.

    “[McCarthy] turns around and he lies about us. Then he has [Alabama Rep.] Mike Rogers stand up and talk about kicking us off committees. He just burned himself. He just solidified 15 or 20 [members] who were against him,” he said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As Axios‘ Alexi McCammond points out, the ‘nightmare’ scenario Nancy Pelosi faced from ‘The Squad’ in 2019 has become McCarthy’s reality.

    Indeed, McCarthy is scrambling – having dispatched top emissaries late Tuesday to begin negotiating with the group of 20 dissenters. Key allies include Reps. Patrick McHenry (NC), French Hill (AR), Garret Graves (LA.), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) and Guy Reschenthaler (PA), who McCarthy hopes can convince his detractors to flip.

    More via Punchbowl News;

    These McCarthy allies were also instructed to share the conservatives’ demands with the entire conference. McHenry, a top leadership lieutenant during the Trump presidency, told us this about his task:

    “Everyone needs to be on the same page about what the needs are for rules and structural changes so we can have Speaker McCarthy elected [Wednesday].”

    Elect a speaker today? We’re not so sure that will happen.

    McHenry is one of the smartest inside players in the House and a potential speaker should McCarthy falter. He and the rest of the McCarthy emissaries are working to socialize exactly what the conservatives want so everyone can “come to terms with getting the 20 [no votes] on board.”

    There is a lot of horse-trading going on right now. Or, as McHenry put it:

    “In a legislative institution, all the gifts of the institution are available when you have a moment like this… It can look as shambolic as you want it to look for as long as possible, but it still gets resolved.”

    One of the keys here is that it’s not only McCarthy and his top aides involved in the talks now – it’s a wider swath of members with different skills and different relationships. The conservatives have a lot of scar tissue with McCarthy. Widening the circle could help with reaching an accord.

    Meanwhile, former President Trump (whose conduct on January 6 McCarthy called “atrocious and totally wrong,” and that he was “inciting people”) gave McCarthy an ALL CAPS ENDORSEMENT, posting to Truth Social;

    “Some really good conversations took place last night,” adding “and it’s now time for all of our GREAT Republican House Members to VOTE FOR KEVIN, CLOSE THE DEAL, TAKE THE VICTORY, & WATCH CRAZY NANCY PELOSI FLY BACK HOME TO A VERY BROKEN CALIFORNIA.”

    “Kevin McCarthy will do a good job, and maybe even a GREAT JOB – JUST WATCH!” Trump continued, apparently forgiving Kevin for joking in 2016 that Putin was ‘paying Trump.’

    Will Trump’s endorsement speak to Biggs, Gaetz or Chip Roy?

    Not likely.

    “If you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise,” Gaetz said on Tuesday.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    *  *  *

    Update (1415ET): And once again, McCarthy lacks the votes in the fifth round.

    *  *  *

    Update (1320ET): McCarthy has officially lost again after a fourth round of voting for Speaker – garnering just 201 votes out of the 218 required. For reference, he received 203 votes in the first round.

    Interestingly, Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana, who previously voted for McCarthy, voted ‘present’ in the fourth round.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Democrats voted unanimously (and symbolically) for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

    Via CNN

    According to Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, McCarthy is ‘losing it.’

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And now, for the fifth round…

    *  *  *

    Update (1130ET): Kevin McCarthy and his allies are actively discussing adjourning the House until Thursday, but might not even have the votes to pull that off, CNN reports, citing multiple sources.

    McCarthy and crew are worried that they could lose more votes if they go to a fourth ballot, which would completely undermine their claims of regaining momentum. At present, they lack the votes to move forward.

    In order to adjourn the House, however, they need 218 votes – which they don’t have.

    Their hope is that furious negotiations that have happened since yesterday evening through this morning have peeled away some of the no-votes and given McCarthy forward momentum ahead of a critical fourth ballot. But, he is still unlikely to get 218 votes on that ballot to win the speakership. 

    Here’s why a vote to adjourn might fail: Voting to adjourn would require 218 votes, and Democratic sources say they would actively whip against a motion to adjourn. Plus some Republicans will likely vote against it as well. -CNN

    If they can’t adjourn, the vote goes to a fourth ballot.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), meanwhile, called Trump’s endorsement of McCarthy “Sad!” in a Wednesday statement to Fox News, adding “This changes neither my view of McCarthy, nor Trump, nor my vote.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Oh – and the Democrats are about to pour salt in McCarthy’s wound if he tries to adjourn.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    After yesterday’s chaos at the House, which saw support for Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) increasingly wane throughout three failed votes for Speaker, the House begins Wednesday in a state of crisis.

    Roughly 10% of the Republican conference has voted against McCarthy, leaving him 16 votes shy of a win.

    As such, no Speaker means no committees, and no rules. As Punchbowl News notes, “There are members-elect, but the chaos Tuesday prevented any lawmakers from being officially sworn in. Nothing resembling this has occurred in more than a century.”

    Indeed, McCarthy appears to be on the ropes – with 20 GOP lawmakers sitting staunchly opposed to the California lawmaker, led by Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL), Chip Roy (TX) and Scott Perry (PA).

    As one reader notes…

    On Tuesday night, Roy appeared on Fox News‘ “Ingraham Angle’ where he accused McCarthy of rejecting a list of conservative demands regarding committee assignments.

    “[McCarthy] turns around and he lies about us. Then he has [Alabama Rep.] Mike Rogers stand up and talk about kicking us off committees. He just burned himself. He just solidified 15 or 20 [members] who were against him,” he said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As Axios‘ Alexi McCammond points out, the ‘nightmare’ scenario Nancy Pelosi faced from ‘The Squad’ in 2019 has become McCarthy’s reality.

    Indeed, McCarthy is scrambling – having dispatched top emissaries late Tuesday to begin negotiating with the group of 20 dissenters. Key allies include Reps. Patrick McHenry (NC), French Hill (AR), Garret Graves (LA.), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) and Guy Reschenthaler (PA), who McCarthy hopes can convince his detractors to flip.

    More via Punchbowl News;

    These McCarthy allies were also instructed to share the conservatives’ demands with the entire conference. McHenry, a top leadership lieutenant during the Trump presidency, told us this about his task:

    “Everyone needs to be on the same page about what the needs are for rules and structural changes so we can have Speaker McCarthy elected [Wednesday].”

    Elect a speaker today? We’re not so sure that will happen.

    McHenry is one of the smartest inside players in the House and a potential speaker should McCarthy falter. He and the rest of the McCarthy emissaries are working to socialize exactly what the conservatives want so everyone can “come to terms with getting the 20 [no votes] on board.”

    There is a lot of horse-trading going on right now. Or, as McHenry put it:

    “In a legislative institution, all the gifts of the institution are available when you have a moment like this… It can look as shambolic as you want it to look for as long as possible, but it still gets resolved.”

    One of the keys here is that it’s not only McCarthy and his top aides involved in the talks now – it’s a wider swath of members with different skills and different relationships. The conservatives have a lot of scar tissue with McCarthy. Widening the circle could help with reaching an accord.

    Meanwhile, former President Trump (whose conduct on January 6 McCarthy called “atrocious and totally wrong,” and that he was “inciting people”) gave McCarthy an ALL CAPS ENDORSEMENT, posting to Truth Social;

    “Some really good conversations took place last night,” adding “and it’s now time for all of our GREAT Republican House Members to VOTE FOR KEVIN, CLOSE THE DEAL, TAKE THE VICTORY, & WATCH CRAZY NANCY PELOSI FLY BACK HOME TO A VERY BROKEN CALIFORNIA.”

    “Kevin McCarthy will do a good job, and maybe even a GREAT JOB – JUST WATCH!” Trump continued, apparently forgiving Kevin for joking in 2016 that Putin was ‘paying Trump.’

    Will Trump’s endorsement speak to Biggs, Gaetz or Chip Roy?

    Not likely.

    “If you want to drain the swamp, you cannot put the biggest alligator in charge of the exercise,” Gaetz said on Tuesday.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 20:52

  • How Easy Is It To Become Middle Class?
    How Easy Is It To Become Middle Class?

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    If we want social / economic renewal, we have to make it easy to climb the ladder to middle class security for anyone willing to adopt the values and habits of thrift, prudence, negotiation, and hard work.

    Let’s stipulate that the rise of the middle class is the core driver of expansion, innovation and democracy and the decay of the middle class is the core source of economic / political / social disorder and decline.

    The pathway to middle class security has profound social, political and economic consequences. As people acquire means, they can afford more education, and they have a stake in the system that needs to be defended / advocated. This advocacy nurtures a diversity of views, democratic / legal institutions and a free press.

    As the book The Inheritance of Rome detailed, the egalitarian aspects of Roman rule continued to influence everyday life for hundreds of years.

    It took centuries for feudalism to eradicate these holdovers from Roman rule (for example, peasant ownership of land).

    The rise of ths middle class broke the stranglehold of feudalism by encouraging free movement of labor and capital, and strengthening weak central governments to the point that feudal fiefdoms answered to the central government again, as in the Roman and Carolingian eras.

    The key factor that determines the rise of a middle class is the relative ease of laborers becoming middle class. In the classical Roman era, freed slaves often ended up doing very well for themselves and becoming middle class, as the class boundaries were porous enough to enable craftworkers and small merchants to improve their lot in life.

    This boils down to this question: are thrift, prudence, negotiation, and hard work enough to transform a family from penury to middle class?

    If the answer is “yes,” then the ladder to middle class security is open to anyone who adopts these values / habits.

    If the answer is “no,” then the ladder to middle class security is not open to everyone, and the economy stagnates.

    Broadly speaking, virtually anyone who rigorously adopted thrift, prudence, negotiation, and hard work in the fifty years from 1946 to 1995 could (once they married and gained a two-income household) eventually afford a family and a stake in the system–a house and/or small business, a pension, etc.

    Once financialization and globalization rose to dominance and distorted the economy with increasing wealth and income inequality (“winner take most”), this was no longer the case.

    Workers of average skill, motivation and wages who adopt thrift, prudence, negotiation, and hard work can no longer afford a family or a stake in the system–at least in high-cost, enormously unequal locales.

    This is true not just of the U.S. but globally.

    This reality has fueled two trends of decay: 1) a dependence on speculation as the only means to “get ahead” and 2) “laying flat” / “let it rot”–giving up on marrying, having a family and acquiring a stake in the system.

    Once these aspirations are only available to those with the right connections or extraordinary drive / talent, society and the economy decay and collapse under the weight of inequality–an inequality defended by those who made it to the top and want to preserve the status quo as it is.

    This is the driver of decay and collapse: once the elites devote themselves to suppressing adaptations and defending extremes of wealth-income-power inequality that benefit them, the system loses the adaptability that arises from a broad-based middle class.

    The top 10% want the status quo to continue as is, even as the bottom 90% fall behind. When enough of the bottom 90% decide to “let it rot,” the entire structure collapses under its own weight.

    If we want social / economic renewal, we have to make it easy to climb the ladder to middle class security for anyone willing to adopt the values and habits of thrift, prudence, negotiation, and hard work. The dominance of a class of self-interested insiders and rentiers precludes this, as this class will expend the last of its resources defending the corrupting inequality that has enriched them so gloriously.

    *  *  *

    This essay was drawn from a weekly Musings Report sent exclusively to subscribers and patrons at the $5/month ($50/year) and higher level. Thank you, patrons and subscribers, for supporting my work and free website.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 20:45

  • Air Marshals Angry At Biden Admin For 'Menial' Border Tasks While New AQ Threat Emerges
    Air Marshals Angry At Biden Admin For ‘Menial’ Border Tasks While New AQ Threat Emerges

    Judicial Watch says it has obtained a copy of a new intelligence alert first circulated among federal government agencies in December which points to a fresh al-Qaeda threat against the nation. The warning reads: “Al-Qaeda says upcoming attacks on US, possibly involving planes, will use new techniques and tactics,” with DHS sources saying the alert was widely circulated on Dec. 31st. 

    The threat alert comes amid reported ongoing tensions among federal air marshals, who have expressed frustration over being sent by DHS for duties to assist US Customs and Border Protection on the ground along the southern border for what they complain are menial tasks, which until recently were supposed to be merely brief voluntary stints. 

    Getty Images

    The Federal Air Marshal Service is responsible for protecting the flying public by providing armed protection on some commercial flights, in order halt hijackings or other 9/11-style terrorist events, and other threats which could endanger the lives of passengers.

    In wake of the heightened al-Qaeda threat alert, a prominent industry union, the Air Marshal National Council (AMNC), is lashing out – with AMNC Executive Director Sonya Labosco saying the following in a new Fox interview: 

    “It looks absolutely insane,” Labosco told co-host Todd Piro. “We don’t understand why these decisions are being made. The intel is clear. Al Qaeda is watching for our weak areas. Our aviation is a high-risk area. We’re not protecting our aviation domain, and we’re going to the border. It is absolutely madness.”

    The controversy has gone public in the last few months, forcing DHS top officials to address the air marshals’ growing complaints. 

    In early December, an independent journal, Homeland Security Today, summarized the conflict between the marshals and DHS leadership under the Biden administration: 

    Beginning last month, federal air marshals have been assigned to 21-day deployments at the southern border that were previously voluntary assignments. The Transportation Security Administration told the Washington Examiner that claims the air marshals were doing menial tasks on the border are “entirely inaccurate and does not reflect the critical and professional law enforcement role these officers perform.”

    The TSA defended itself further in saying, “Federal Air Marshals are performing law enforcement support to the mission at the southwest border,” according to an official statement. “The TSA Federal Air Marshal Service is a highly valued member of the DHS law enforcement team and has an ever-expanding role within DHS, working closely with other U.S. and international law enforcement agencies to safeguard the nation’s transportation systems,” it said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Furthermore union officials sought to intervene and have begun a media pressure campaign, with Judicial Watch explaining the following in its summary of the standoff: 

    Days later the Air Marshal National Council, which represents thousands of FAM nationwide, accused TSA Administrator David Pekoske and FAM Director Tirrell Stevenson of violating federal law and overstepping their authority by assigning air marshals to assist the U.S. Border Patrol with the illegal immigration crisis. In a formal complaint to the DHS Inspector General, the group also accused the Homeland Security leaders of fraud, waste, and abuse of authority. Sending air marshals to El Paso, Texas, San Diego, California, Laredo, Texas, McAllen, Texas, Tucson, Arizona and Yuma, Arizona to transport illegal immigrants and conduct welfare checks has no relation to TSA’s core mission of transportation security, the complaint states.

    “The statute does not give the Administrator any authority to deploy TSA or FAM employees to the southern border to perform non transportation security related matters,” the complaint to the DHS IG says. “Further, under section (g) the statute describes what the Administrators authority is if an emergency, as defined by the Secretary of Homeland Security, is declared.” The act makes clear that the legislative intent is to only allow TSA to exercise authority and deploy its assets for transportation security, the report to the DHS watchdog confirms.

    In the meantime, the aforementioned union representative LaBosco has highlighted that the air marshals’ work at the border goes beyond what one might think of as menial security tasks. Instead, she describes that air marshals who should be protecting passenger jets in the skies are at places like camps with illegal aliens making sandwiches and running simple errands… “They are making sandwiches for them and driving them around like Uber or picking up supplies.”

    And separately other union representative said of the TSA and DHS, “Either they don’t care about aviation security, or they really think it is secure.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 20:25

  • Ninth Circuit Rules That Middle School Teacher's MAGA Hat Was Protected Speech
    Ninth Circuit Rules That Middle School Teacher’s MAGA Hat Was Protected Speech

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There is a major ruling out of the United States States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in favor of a middle school science teacher, Eric Dodge, who was barred from wearing a “Make America Great Again” baseball cap and later berated by the principal, Caroline Garrett, as a “racist” and a “homophobe.”

    The unanimous court ruled that the hat was protected speech under the First Amendment.

    District Court judge James L. Robart ruled against Dodge and dismissed the case in its entirety.  (Robart is the judge who was publicly denounced by former President Trump).  Robart dismissed the case on the grounds of qualified immunity or a failure to substantiate claims.

    The Ninth Circuit reversed Robart, but it did uphold the dismissal of the case against two defendants, the Evergreen Public Schools district and the district’s Chief Human Resources Officer Jenae Gomes.

    Eric Dodge had only recently been assigned to the school after he recovered from a stroke. He is a 17-year veteran of the Evergreen district. He told Garrett that he wore the hat because he had sensitive spots on his scalp that had to be protected from the sun. He also said that he agreed with the message of the hat. Garrett said that the hat represented hate and prejudice to many others.

    Garrett’s view of the MAGA hat as a symbol of hate has been fueled in the media by various leaders, particularly President Joe Biden who was denounced for his attacks on “MAGA Republicans” in his Philadelphia speech. We have also seen students and others attacked for wearing the hats. At Fordham University, a coffee shop banned the wearing of the hats.

    Dodge wore the bright-red “MAGA” to a cultural sensitivity training. He actually did not wear the hat in the training session with around 60 people but put it  on the table or next to him. Nevertheless, some attendees complained that they felt “intimidated” and “threatened” by Dodge’s decision to have the hat with him.

    The choice of headwear did not go over well with Garrett in particular:

    “The first day, Principal Garrett, who was Dodge’s supervisor, told him that he needed to use “better judgment” and not have his MAGA hat at Wy’east. The second day, she called him a racist, a bigot, a homophobe, and a liar, and swore at him for having his MAGA hat with him again. By itself, such criticism or “bad-mouthing” does not constitute an adverse employment action sufficient for a First Amendment retaliation claim. … Principal Garrett also has First Amendment rights after all. See id. (“It would be the height of irony, indeed, if mere speech, in response to speech, could constitute a First Amendment violation.”). But Principal Garrett went beyond criticizing Dodge’s political views. She suggested that disciplinary action could occur if she saw Dodge with his hat again by referencing the need for union representation: “The next time I see you with that hat, you need to have your union rep. Bring your rep because I’ll have my own.” It is hardly controversial that threatening a subordinate’s employment if they do not stop engaging in protected speech is reasonably likely to deter that person from speaking. … Principal Garrett claims that she was “[s]imply advising Mr. Dodge of his right to have a representative at any future conversations about the hat,” which is his right under his collective bargaining agreement. This characterization undersells the import and implications that a reasonable employee would attribute to such a statement.”

    The Ninth Circuit ruled that the school district failed to show evidence of a “tangible disruption” to school operations that would outweigh the teacher’s First Amendment rights.

    Notably, there was “no general prohibition on political speech” when Garrett told Dodge he could not bring his MAGA hat to school. His counsel noted that Garrett allowed a Black Lives Matter poster to hang in the library and had a Bernie Sanders bumper sticker on her car.

    The Ninth Circuit correctly ruled in favor of Dodge. It found:

    “Dodge’s speech was his display of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign slogan on a red hat. The content of this speech is quintessentially a matter of public concern. The messages of candidates for public office are not only newsworthy; they inherently relate to the ‘political, social, or other concern to the community.” Lane, 573 U.S. at 241 … Indeed, Principal Garrett and others viewed Dodge’s hat as a comment on issues such as immigration, racism, and bigotry, which are all matters of public concern. … And regardless of Dodge’s intent, the MAGA hat has an obvious political nature.”

    We have previously discussed court rulings against employees who insisted on wearing political hats or symbols at work.  The Ninth Circuit distinguished this case where a teacher was not in class or interacting with students:

    “Here, Dodge had no official duty to wear the MAGA hat, and it was not required to perform his job. Nor did he wear the hat in school with students. That distinguishes this case from other cases involving speech in schools where the speech was reasonably viewed by students and parents as officially promoted by the school. … Where Dodge was not taking ‘advantage of his position to press his particular views upon the impressionable and ‘captive’ minds before him,’ Poway Unified Sch. Dist., 658 F.3d at 968, but rather was displaying a message on a personal item while attending a teacher-only training, we have little trouble concluding that he was engaging in expression as a private citizen, not a public employee.

    Because the undisputed facts demonstrate that Dodge’s MAGA hat conveyed a message of public concern and he was acting as a private citizen in expressing that message, we conclude that Dodge was engaged in speech protected by the First Amendment.”

    The Ninth Circuit was clearly correct in finding the hat to be protected speech. What is concerning is the lack of any discipline for Garrett or others who sought to prevent opposing political views from being expressed by teachers. The denial of free speech should be treated as seriously as other abuses. There should be consequences for administrators who discriminate on the basis on race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, or political viewpoints. This was a denial of First Amendment rights that should warrant some adverse action for those responsible in the school district.

    While Garrett chastised Dodge to use “better judgment” in the future, the question is whether she or other administrators will do so in light of this ruling. They showed terrible judgment in attacking Dodge over his political views. Others showed equally bad judgment in litigating this case rather than settling the matter with Dodge.

    This ruling will certainly create clear guidelines for the future, but the case also shows the sense of license of many teachers in curtailing the rights of others with opposing political views. That sense of license will continue despite this ruling if there are no consequences for denying free speech rights.

    Here is the opinion: Dodge v. Evergreen District

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 20:05

  • Two Charged In Christmas Day Attacks On Washington Power Grid
    Two Charged In Christmas Day Attacks On Washington Power Grid

    Two men have been hit with federal charges of conspiracy to damage energy facilities, over a Christmas Day attack on four electrical substations in Washington state. That charge carries a punishment of up to 20 years in prison. 

    Matthew Greenwood, 32, and Jeremy Crahan, 40, were arrested on Saturday and charged with breaking into the substations near Tacoma and tampering with power switches in a move that disconnected some 15,000 people from their electrical supply while inflicting $3 million in damage that may take up to 36 months to repair.  

    Security cameras caught these images of one of the suspects at the Elk Plain substation in Washington state (FBI)

    This doesn’t appear to have been an attack with political motivations. Authorities say Greenwood confessed that the scheme was aimed at facilitating their burglary of a business. Having knocked out the power, the duo allegedly traveled to the place of business, drilled out a lock and emptied the cash register.  

    Greenwood was also charged with illegally possessing a short-barreled shotgun and short-barreled rifle.  The shotgun sounds like an oldie: It’s a Sears, Roebuck and Company shotgun with no serial number, according to the charging document. Serial numbers have been broadly required to be placed on firearms since 1968. The rifle is a Remington and appeared to have been equipped with a home-made silencer that leaned heavy on duct tape. 

    They’re not much to look at…but these two short-barreled weapons were enough for feds to tack on two gun charges (FBI) 

    The two alleged criminals, both Puyallup residents, were tracked down using cell phone tower data, and matching their pickup truck to security camera video. The targeted substations are dozens of miles apart, and more than 12 hours passed between the first and last attack. Greenwood said he used bolt cutters provided by Crahan. 

    “We have seen attacks such as these increase in Western Washington and throughout the country and must treat each incident seriously,” said US Attorney Nick Brown in a statement. “The outages on Christmas left thousands in the dark and cold and put some who need power for medical devices at extreme risk.”

    Meanwhile, investigators have yet to make any arrests in a more destructive attack on the power grid in Moore County, North Carolina on Dec. 3. In that incident, two substations came under gunfire, causing a loss of power to more than 35,000 customers during a week when temperatures dipped to 30 degrees.  A $75,000 reward has been offered.

    Following that attack, there was widespread speculation that the perpetrators intended intended to cut power to a controversial drag show that was scheduled to start in the sleepy town of Southern Pines about the same time as the attack.   

    A nationwide increase in attacks on power facilities prompted the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last month to call for an evaluation of the physical security of America’s electric grid.  

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 19:45

  • Is There A Way To Stop Inflation Without Crushing The Economy And Killing The Dollar?
    Is There A Way To Stop Inflation Without Crushing The Economy And Killing The Dollar?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    One of the most dishonest games being played in economics today is the attempt by various groups (political and financial) to deflect blame for the rise of inflation. The Biden White House and Democrats desperately want to blame Russia and the war in Ukraine, even though inflation was spiking long before the war ever started. The Federal Reserve pretended for years that inflation was not a threat at all despite numerous alternative economists warning what would happen. Now they blame supply chain disruptions instead of their own monetary policies. The GOP wants to blame Biden alone for the crisis while ignoring the dominant role of the Fed in the economy (and their unilateral power) over the course of multiple presidencies.

    In the alternative sphere there are some people that try to deny the fact that there is more than one type of inflation. They want to claim it’s all about money creation, but this is simply not true. There is inflation in money supply, but there is also price inflation caused by numerous factors including bottlenecks in production, bottlenecks in resources, bottlenecks in shipping, bottlenecks in energy, etc. Anyone that denies this fact is blinded by bias or just doesn’t understand how inflation really works.

    Overall, it’s fair according to the evidence to put MOST of the blame on the central banks and their 14 year program of bailouts and QE policies. If you have read my previous articles on the Fed’s involvement you know that my position has remained the same for years – I predicted a stagflationary crisis based on the position that that the Fed was deliberately creating a monetary disaster to make way for a new digital currency system tied to a global framework, and this is exactly what has happened so far.

    That said, too much money chasing too few goods is not the only problem we face as a nation. There is also the issue of global interdependency and our reliance on other countries, some of them hostile, for production and resources. With supply chain disruptions an ever present danger, it’s not enough to focus on money velocity and the central bank alone – We won’t be solving the crisis that way.

    Not to mention, the more the federal reserve raises interest rates the more it costs to support US government debt, which is already well beyond US GDP. If doubts rise over the US being unable to pay for its treasury debts, then foreign creditors may dump their T-bond and dollar holding entirely. This could destroy the buying power of the dollar.

    In the liberty movement there is always debate about solutions. We all seem to agree on the core problems but can’t ever seem to agree on what to do about them.

    There are those that suggest there’s nothing that can be done economically except prepare and wait for collapse so we can rebuild once the dust has settled. I find myself in this camp more often than not. Then there are those that believe a political approach is possible. After nearly half the states in the US blocked the covid mandates and lockdowns, I am starting to think solutions at the state level might be viable. Then there are those that want to build an alternative system, a parallel economy that competes with the mainstream economy.

    This is something I have discussed for a long time – It’s the reason I started Alt-Market 12 years ago. It’s the ideal solution because it is proactive. Instead of waiting around for other people to fix the crisis for us, regular people simply establish their own trade and production systems based on necessities, separating from the dying economy so that when it collapses they are mostly unaffected.

    This, however, is a short term solution in that large scale domestic production is eventually needed to return a country and economy to greater prosperity. Growing gardens, making trade items and forming local barter markets is only a way to weather the storm; it is not a long term path to fiscal health. What we need is locally based large scale production of necessities as well as our own domestic resource discovery.

    In order to fight back against monetary decline the US needs to produce a majority of its own goods again. If the problem is too much money chasing too few goods, then we can make our own goods here at home instead of relying on countries like China and the unstable global supply chain.

    But what if there is an answer beyond domestic production alone? What if we built an economy which focuses on QUALITY? It’s a notion that might have been suggested by others, but it is certainly not being promoted by any economist within the mainstream or any political representative.

    The Quality Economy As A Means To Fight Inflation?

    Consider this for a moment: What if home based producers were given incentives by states (such as a jubilee on taxes) to manufacture high quality long lasting goods? There are multiple reasons why this model is not being used, all of them faulty.

    Carbon control initiatives in the west are actually forcing companies to produce lower quality goods with substandard designs in the name of “saving the environment.” But, if products are low quality and are breaking sooner because of carbon control standards, then people have to go out and buy replacement goods sooner. More retail demand means more manufacturing which means more “carbon pollution” over time. The carbon emissions narrative is complete nonsense and there’s no proof whatsoever that man-made carbon causes climate change, but even by the logic of the carbon lobby quality production makes more sense for the environment. At the very least it means less waste.

    Remember when a washing machine used to last for many years? Remember when a lawnmower or a chainsaw was made from quality metal parts instead of being loaded with plastic parts? Remember how grandma had the same working vacuum for decades? Quality used to be a thing, but the idea has been erased from modern economic theory.

    Today, it’s all about quantity, because quantity makes a bigger profit (as long as prices remain low and people have the money to buy multiples of an item). If items break constantly it means they need to be replaced constantly, which means companies make more money. In fact, there are many corporations that deliberately design products to break quickly so that consumers must buy another. This method does not work in an inflationary environment; it actually adds to the problem by forcing more money velocity and reducing the number of functional goods in the system.

    Let’s say that instead we had numerous manufacturers that operate within the US and they are offered a tax jubilee for as long as they are willing to produce high quality long lasting models of their products. With the tax incentives, they could market such goods at a lower price in order to compete with poor quality goods from places like China. Now, you have given the public access to items that they only need to replace every 5 years, or 10 years, instead of every 12 months.

    But what about food, which is a major part of the inflation problem? Well, the federal government actually pays farmers to grow LESS food in order to keep prices higher on commodities markets. Why not simply stop doing that? Or, again, states could offer tax incentives to farmers that produce with the effort to drive down prices, and state governments could offer to buy excess long term foods like wheat as a form of strategic reserve. America used to do this; why don’t we do it anymore?

    And how about housing? Simple – Ban foreign purchases of property and only allow American citizens to buy American land. American citizens have a right to private property under the constitution. Foreign investors and governments do not have that right.

    The goal of each of these policies would be to free up supply without killing the buying power of the dollar and without deliberately crushing credit markets and triggering mass job losses.

    In this environment money velocity slows down and there are more goods on the market because they last longer. Savings go up because people don’t need to spend as often. Prices in general start to go down. Inflation is subdued and eventually defeated, because what is money other than a means to provide necessities and amenities? If those goods last longer then money becomes less relevant to the health of the economy.

    What about deflation?  Would high quality production lead to far less sales and a big drop in jobs?  In America’s current 70% service-based economy, yes, for a time.  But, this is going to happen soon anyway as the Fed hikes rates and stifles access to credit.  With my plan, service jobs would be exchanged over time for better paying manufacturing and engineering jobs. 

    To be sure, there is the argument that quality goods and more savings could lead to decadent spending. In other words, there is the theory that the more money people have the more they will spend on frivolity and this might keep inflation alive. The problem is we have not lived in an economy based on quality for several decades, so it’s hard to say how people will react. If people have long lasting items and are secure in their basic necessities, then what is compelling them to spend with wild abandon? Not much.

    The establishment would like to keep the public dependent on the system by reducing our buying power and controlling access to goods. I suspect that they will one day offer the same kind of solution – A return to quality. But only at the price of subservience. The World Economic Forum’s “Shared Economy” concept which they clearly plan to introduce after there is a major financial collapse would require quality based production, other wise it would fail miserably. If everyone in the world is going to be sharing everything and private property is outlawed, then the goods that are shared would have to be designed to last.

    My suggestion is that we circumvent the establishment entirely and create our own economic model, still based in private property but also adapted to quality production. And, we manufacture all our goods locally within our own states and our own country. I believe this would end inflation, not just today, but for all time.

    Will the establishment allow such a system to thrive? They would certainly try to stop it from happening using any means they have available. Decentralization and abundance are the enemies of authoritarianism.  My point is, there is indeed a solution. We don’t need Fed intervention. We don’t need sky high interest rates. We don’t need stimulus. We don’t need government oppression or foreign interventions. We don’t need globalist centralization or a Great Reset. We don’t need any of it.

    They will try to convince you that we do.

    Regardless of what happens the public must be made aware that there is a better way.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 19:25

  • Hiring Is Finally Getting Easier For Small Businesses
    Hiring Is Finally Getting Easier For Small Businesses

    The residual hiring drought that occurred as a result of the government’s genius plan to literally pay people to stay home and do nothing during the pandemic looks to finally be passing, according to small business owners.

    Several small business owners were profiled by the Wall Street Journal this week and described a once-difficult hiring climate (where, you guessed it, no one wanted to come back to work) as easing. 

    “Raising pay, adding apprenticeship programs and rewriting job ads,” are three things that employers are doing to help maintain the interest. 

    Chief Executive Officer of UnaliWear, Inc., Jean Anne Booth told the WSJ about the hiring climate over the last year: “They would ghost us. They would accept the job, show up one week, and never show up again.” This fall they increased the starting pay they were offering and say that now, “for the first time in a while”, they are “fully staffed”. 

    Surveys show that the easing appears to be consistent across industries:

    Nearly 25% of the more than 650 entrepreneurs in the December survey said it was easier to fill job openings now than at the start of 2022—an increase from 18% in November. Meanwhile, 20% said it was harder to fill open positions, down from 25% in November. The survey is conducted for the Journal by Vistage Worldwide Inc., a business-coaching and peer-advisory firm. 

    Dale Lemmons, owner of Signature Transport Inc. and Interstate Wood Products Inc., told The Journal: “We have seen it be a little easier, mostly because some of our competitors are slowing down. It’s not quite the hot job market it was.”

    His company has boosted pay for entry level drivers by 20% and by 40% for drivers with at least 3 years of experience. The pay hikes have helped entice talent and retain drivers: he has seen about 25 of his workers go through a paid apprenticeship program and 7 additional employees are in training.

    Chip Ridge, president of Millennial Title in Louisville, Ky., is also optimistic, telling The Journal: “There’s a lot of pretty high-level talent in our industry that’s being displaced as part of this shift in the economy. There’s potentially an opportunity for us to acquire some really experienced talent that in a normalized market we would never have the opportunity to get.”

    “There were definitely more candidates, but we’re still not seeing the right candidates,” said another small business owner in East Brunswick, New Jersey. 

    One industry that has definitely seen hiring get easier has been restaurants and bars, which we wrote about just days ago after the WSJ profiled that industry specifically. Restaurants and bars have “nearly doubled” their employee counts from the pandemic lows in April 2020, the note said. The industry added 62,000 jobs over the past month alone.

    However, one must also keep in mind that, as we have been saying for months, these are usually the first stops for people working 9 to 5 salaried jobs who have been laid off due to the Fed’s cohesive and calculated plans to strategically napalm the U.S. economy in order to get inflation lower.

    Nevertheless, many recent hires are “returning to the restaurant industry after forsaking it earlier in the pandemic’ the report says. It’s amazing what happens when your newfangled crypto trading empire, established some time between 2020 and 2022, goes bust when its top two positions – dogecoin and Tesla call options – turn out to be worthless. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 19:05

  • Zero COVID Ends But Zero Sense Continues
    Zero COVID Ends But Zero Sense Continues

    Authored by Debbie Lerman via The Brownstone Institute,

    China decided to finally drop its disastrous draconian zero-Covid policies. In response, major Western news outlets have revealed how completely and absolutely nonsensical their coverage of the pandemic in China has been from the very beginning.

    A front-page article in The New York Times from December 30, 2022, is a perfect example. The title: “How Bad is China’s Covid Outbreak? It’s a Scientific Guessing Game” seemingly makes sense. As the subhead explains, there is an “absence of credible information from the Chinese government,” so it’s difficult to figure out what’s actually going on.

    The rest of the article belies the notion that anything resembling sense has informed the reporters and editors at this once venerable newspaper of record.

    Let’s look at the claims in the article, starting with the first paragraph:

    As Covid barrels through China, scientists around the world are searching for clues about an outbreak with sprawling consequences – for the health of hundreds of millions of Chinese people, the global economy and the future of the pandemic.

    Here are the unproven – and, according to the headline and subhead of this article unprovable, – assumptions underlying these claims:

    1) Covid is barreling through China. Says who? If there is no reliable data coming out of the country, how do we know there’s any barreling going on? The word “barrels” is linked to a New York Times article about the confusion and chaos following the end of zero Covid policies. No proof of barreling.

    2) The unproven outbreak has sprawling consequences – why? The rest of the world has gone back more or less to normal, post-pandemic functioning, and China is attempting to do the same. Even if there are hundreds of millions of Covid cases in China, we know that the overall Covid mortality rate is extremely low in all except the elderly and infirm, and as Western media (including the NYT) reported ad nauseum in 2020, China built lots of extra capacity, so no reason to imagine its hospitals will be overrun.

    Next paragraph:

    But in the absence of credible information from the Chinese government, it is a big scientific guessing game to determine the size and severity of the surge in the world’s most populous country.

    The overarching assumption in this paragraph, and in the entire article, is that there is a fundamental “absence of credible information from the Chinese government.” Again, this assumption makes sense, given what we know about the Chinese government’s manipulation of information to serve its various agendas. It means that whatever China’s leaders say about the pandemic in their country is not credible.

    Yet just a few paragraphs down, the article makes these astonishing claims:

    Until this month, the world seemed to have a reasonably clear understanding of what was happening with the virus in China. The ruling Communist Party proudly published low daily case numbers and deaths as a testament to its stringent ‘zero Covid’ policy. A countrywide system of lockdowns, quarantines and mass testing largely kept the virus at bay.

    But in early December, the government abruptly abandoned ‘zero Covid,’ leaving the scientific community largely in the dark.

    Wait, what?

    When they were pursuing the clearly unattainable, unscientific and incredibly destructive zero Covid policies, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was completely credible, and all the data they published was 100 percent reliable? For example, this data, as presented in Michael Senger’s excellent article on this subject:

    In case there’s any doubt: This graph, based on the data reported by the CCP, shows no Covid deaths in China for two years, starting in March 2020. It means that, while the entire world was affected by an extremely contagious respiratory virus that caused millions of deaths, one country of 1.4 billion people managed to avoid it completely. That is the data that The New York Times and the scientific community deemed credible.

    Then, suddenly, when the CCP decided to stop with the terrible, misguided, and destructive policies, their reported data is not credible and scientists are “in the dark” about what’s happening in China?

    The absurdity of these claims is so glaring, it should discredit anything anyone has to say about the data from China now, if they do not acknowledge that it was equally incredible from the very beginning.

    One cannot help but wonder: where are the fact checkers when such levels of misinformation and blatant fear-mongering are published on the front page of The New York Times?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 18:45

  • Baltic Index Crashes Most On Record As Recession Alarm Flashes
    Baltic Index Crashes Most On Record As Recession Alarm Flashes

    The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index crashed on Tuesday in the worst decline on record, sinking on prospects of a global recession. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Baltic Dry Good Index is a measure of global shipping and economic health. The overall index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax, and supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, plunged 17.5% to $1,250, the most significant daily decline since 1984. 

    The drop comes days after International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on CBS’s ‘Face the Nation’ in an interview aired on Sunday that a third of the global economy will be in recession this year. 

    Meanwhile, JPMorgan Global Composite PMI shows worldwide economic business conditions slid into contraction territory last August. 

    Lumber, copper, and crude are three industrial commodities that send warning signals about impending global economic turmoil. All three are well off their highs. Looking at broad commodity indexes via Bloomberg, the peak in ag, energy, and industrial metals appeared to be last summer. 

    With a gloomy economic outlook and flashing alarms from the world of shipping and commodities, recession risks are elevated this year as central bankers aggressively hike into a downturn. What could possibly go wrong?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 18:25

  • Health Care Workers Cry Foul On FDA Claiming It Didn’t Prohibit Ivermectin For COVID-19
    Health Care Workers Cry Foul On FDA Claiming It Didn’t Prohibit Ivermectin For COVID-19

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Dr. Yusuf Saleeby has practiced medicine for more than 30 years. He serves patients in South Carolina and until recently had never faced an investigation from his state medical board.

    File photo: A package of ivermectin tablets. (Natasha Holt/The Epoch Times)

    But after Saleeby started prescribing ivermectin to his patients, he was reported to the board, which opened an investigation, despite the state’s attorney general’s promise that his office wouldn’t prosecute doctors who prescribed off-label medications.

    Jennifer Wright, a nurse practitioner and clinical director who practices in Florida, but can prescribe across state lines, told The Epoch Times she received a letter from the Office of the Attorney General of New York ordering her not to prescribe ivermectin.

    “You know, basically threatened me. If I don’t stop prescribing, then they’re going to fine me,” Wright said about the letter, which threatened legal action with fines of up to $5,000 per violation.

    The letter stated that the Food and Drug Administration only authorized ivermectin for use in humans when treating “parasitic worms and head lice and skin conditions like rosacea.”

    The citation in the letter appears to be from an FDA advisory issued in March 2021 titled “Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19.”

    That advisory and other anti-ivermectin messaging from the FDA are now the subject of a lawsuit brought by three doctors against the agency. The doctors argue that the FDA illegally interfered with their ability to treat patients. The suit was dismissed but an appeal has been filed by the plaintiffs.

    During a hearing in 2022, attorneys defending the government argued that the agency’s missives were just a recommendation.

    “They did not say it’s prohibited or it’s unlawful. They also did not say that doctors may not prescribe ivermectin,” Isaac Belfer, one of the lawyers for the government, said during a Nov. 1, 2022, hearing in federal court in Texas.

    The government’s arguments differ greatly from the reality many doctors faced for prescribing ivermectin. Some lost their jobs, others were investigated by state medical boards, and many received threats from the New York attorney general because they were prescribing across state lines.

    Matthew Dark, a spokesperson for Roots Medical and Colorado Healthcare Providers for Freedom, which has more than 275 physicians in the group, stated that several doctors in Colorado are facing investigations by the state medical board.

    When asked about the FDA’s new claim, Dark stated: “They knew it was safe for humans, and they made that very accusatory thing if you were a doctor prescribing this, you were an idiot. You were practicing like a hillbilly. So that message was loud and clear.”

    Dark referred to Twitter posts from the FDA, one of which said: “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.”

    “Pharmacies were responding to the practice and providers trying to write [ivermectin] the same way the FDA was behaving,” Dark said.

    Wright concurred, and pointing to her letter from the New York attorney general, said, “It clearly states in this letter that according to the FDA, you must cease and desist in prescribing ivermectin to New York State residents.”

    New York State Attorney General Letitia James holds a press conference at the Office of the Attorney General in New York on March 28, 2019. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images)

    Dr. Miguel Antonatos, a board-certified internal medicine physician who practices out of Illinois, but can prescribe to other states, told The Epoch Times via email that he, too, received a letter from the New York attorney general.

    Nicole Sirotek is a registered nurse and founder of American Frontline Nurses, a patient advocacy network that boasts 22,000 nurses. She told The Epoch Times that her nurses often work with doctors in hospital settings.

    At the height of the pandemic, Sirotek said patients would reach out to her advocacy network and beg for ivermectin, either for themselves or their loved ones dying in the hospital.

    She stated that in five separate instances, doctors were fired or forced to resign for prescribing ivermectin as a home medication for nurses to administer in hospitals.

    “That happened five times, and each physician was fired. That’s five physicians in five different states and five different hospital systems.”

    Julie McCabe, a registered nurse and director of advocacy services for American Frontline Nurses, told The Epoch Times that the above doctors include Dr. Edith Behr in Pennsylvania, Dr. John Witcher in Mississippi, Dr. Mary Bowden in Texas, Dr. Robert Karas in Arkansas, and Dr. Paul Marik in Virginia. Bowden and Marik are two of the three doctors suing the FDA over its stance on ivermectin.

    Bowden told The Epoch Times that Houston Methodist Hospital suspended her for merely writing on Twitter about ivermectin, and she had to overcome “numerous obstacles” when prescribing it to patients.

    “The FDA was the key creator of these hurdles when it launched a social media campaign stating that ivermectin is dangerous and only for horses. When faced with a lawsuit, the FDA now claims it was merely making suggestions—suggestions that have threatened my ability to practice medicine and more importantly, interfered with life-saving early treatment of COVID patients,” Bowden said.

    Sirotek said members of the group Team Halo targeted her because of her stance on ivermectin. The group describes itself as “volunteer scientists and healthcare professionals from around the world, working to end this pandemic by contributing our time to address concerns and public health misinformation.”

    Members of the group filed several complaints to Nevada’s state medical board, which Sirotek said costs her $5,000 per complaint to fight.

    With tears streaming from her eyes, Sirotek said she’d also received death threats, pictures of her house, and threats to murder her children. Sirotek provided copies of these threats to The Epoch Times. Team Halo didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

    A sign for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration outside of its headquarters in White Oak, Md., on July 20, 2020. (Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images)

    Pushback Begins

    In the spring of 2020, with COVID-19 spreading like wildfire through the population, finding a viable treatment was paramount in many doctors’ minds. And as no drug was approved to treat the novel virus, they turned to off-label use, a standard medical practice even in non-pandemic times.

    In March 2020, a group of leading critical care specialists joined forces and formed the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC). Their mission was to examine different therapies and drugs and recommend possible COVID-19 treatments based on best medical practices and emerging data.

    Almost immediately, ivermectin was put forward as a possible treatment. First approved for human use in 1987 and dispensed billions of times since then, ivermectin is traditionally prescribed to treat parasites. But it’s safe and was already known to have an effect on viruses.

    “This is a medication that is safer than Tylenol, safer than stuff we sell over the counter,” Wright said.

    Saleeby agreed.

    “[Ivermectin is] probably one of the most prescribed drugs. It’s given out like candy in Sub-Saharan Africa and Amazon basin or anywhere around water. … It’s doled out to children and pregnant women. … As far as safety, it’s probably safer than baby aspirin. It’s probably the safest drug on the planet, to be honest.

    “I was using [ivermectin] sporadically in some of my Lyme patients. It’s effective against Lyme. We knew it had effectivity against viruses and other pathogens like Borrelia and Babesia.”

    Nurses administer care to a patient at a medical center in Seattle, on May 6, 2020. (Karen Ducey/Getty Images)

    Sirotek told The Epoch Times that, especially as the Delta strain increased hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, she and several nurses questioned why some countries seemingly remained unaffected. The answer, she believes, was widespread ivermectin use.

    At first, prescribing ivermectin and obtaining it from a regular pharmacy wasn’t an issue, Wright said. More importantly, it worked.

    “We started using it very early on, and I could prescribe it to the pharmacy. I would prescribe it according to the FLCCC recommendations because they were the ones doing the research. I was just validating that, you know, this has some real stuff behind it.”

    When the pandemic began, ivermectin as an effective treatment was primarily a theory. But as health care workers reported that it worked, more and more studies were conducted to back up those early successes.

    There have been 189 ivermectin COVID-19 studies, according to the aggregate site C19ivm.org. Of those studies, 139 have been peer-reviewed, and 93 compare treatment and control groups.

    In the 93 studies, which had more than 133,838 patients in 27 countries, there were “statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, ventilation, ICU admission, hospitalization, recovery, cases, and viral clearance,” a real-time meta-analysis states.

    Simply put, as health care workers saw firsthand that ivermectin worked in their practices, studies were simultaneously confirming the medicine’s effectiveness.

    Dr. Peter Raisanen, a naturopathic medical doctor in Arizona, said that once he started his patients on ivermectin, they typically started feeling better within a few days.

    “It seemed like it was within three to four days, like they [started feeling] better,” Raisanen told The Epoch Times.

    Raisanen said he treated about 200 patients with ivermectin, and none died. Almost all stayed out of the hospital. That’s an experience several doctors attested to witnessing.

    “We’ve probably collectively [at Roots Medical], treated 1,000 people with early COVID,” Dark said.

    He said that when a patient was treated early on in their illness, there was a clear improvement—often within hours.

    “It’s within two hours of that first dose that people start feeling noticeably better. And within two days, most symptoms are gone. Again, this is with starting early treatment, say days one to three, one to four, of infection or symptoms,” Dark said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/04/2023 – 18:05

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