Today’s News 5th November 2021

• Credit Suisse Unveils Promised Reorg, Cuts Prime Brokerage In Pivot To 'Catering To World's Rich'
  Credit Suisse Unveils Promised Reorg, Cuts Prime Brokerage In Pivot To ‘Catering To World’s Rich’

  A couple of quarters have passed since Archegos, the family office of former “Tiger Cub” Bill Hwang, got hit with the margin call of a lifetime (mostly thanks to ViacomCBS announcing a  sale of a $3BN chunk of preferred stock) and collapsed spectacularly, forcing half a dozen megabanks to try and sort out an orderly exit from the fund’s highly-leveraged trades (to which they had unwittingly become principals) before Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kicked down the door and liquidated Archegos’s positions in a series of massive block trades that fascinated Wall Street.

  News of the blowup briefly turned the broader market red (not an easy feat in the era of Fed-induced easy money), sparking chatter about contagion, but it fell particularly hard on the shares of Credit Suisse and Nomura, whose prime brokerage businesses were the most exposed to Archegos’s positions. Both banks reported losses in the billions of dollars – with Credit Suisse reporting more than $5 billion in losses attributed to Archegos during the first quarter. In time, it was revealed the bank had earned only $17MM in revenue from its dealings with Archegos, which its PB desk had sought to placate in order to win more business.

  The collapse of the family office prompted Democratic lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren to demand more transparency surrounding reporting of family office positions, since Archegos had managed to keep the fact that it effectively controlled more than 5% of ViacomCBS’s shares via its swap positions with various prime brokers a secret (funds are legally required in the US to report positions above that threshold).

  

  Warren has continued to use the Archegos collapse as fuel for her criticisms of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom she demanded resign back in September.

  Credit Suisse swiftly fired a handful of senior (and not-so-senior) employees, including its chief risk manager and compliance officer, while promising shareholders it would reorganize its business, hinting that its prime brokerage and other risky businesses tied to hedge funds would be dramatically scaled back.

  Well, the time has finally come for CS to deliver on this promise. Switzerland’s second-largest investment bank by assets released its Q3 earnings results early Thursday, alongside a plan to reorganize its sprawling business, exit most hedge-fund-financing related businesses.

  As far as the results go, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein described them as “strong”, although others warned that shareholders should expect “further writedowns” as the restructuring plan progresses and more regulatory penalties are assessed (note: CS has recently been hit with penalties by American and British regulators that had nothing to do with Archegos). CS also warned of the potential for the bank to take a net loss during the final three months of the year. As for Q3, the bank reported lower net income of CHF434M vs. CHF546M YoY, a 21% drop.

  As for the restructuring, the bank is using a tried-and-true playbook that has (so far, at least) worked for another struggling European banking giant: Deutsche Bank.

  According to WSJ, the bank plans to make “catering to the world’s rich” its new central mission by consolidating its global operations in private banking and wealth management under one roof, while it plans to exit its prime brokerage and other businesses that help hedge funds finance trades.

  But otherwise, its investment bank will remain mostly intact. What’s more, CS plans to expand its wealth management business with new hires, estimating that it will spend roughly $440MM on the restructuring effort. As a result of the reorg, the bank says it expects to take a 1.6 billion Swiss franc ($1.75BN) goodwill writedown that will likely be the cause of the expected Q4 loss.

  More specific details about the restructuring effort – along with changes to the bank’s senior management – will be rolled out in January, according to Chairman António Horta-Osório, who affirmed that CEO Thomas Gottstein would remain in the CEO’s seat to oversee the restructuring.

  Shares of the Swiss bank gyrated in the wake of the earnings report and announcement as investors digested the announcement with a fair bit of skepticism.

  A Swiss bank catering to the world’s richest? Doesn’t UBS already do that?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 11/05/2021 – 02:45

• The Controlled Demolition Of The EU
  The Controlled Demolition Of The EU

  Authored by Marco Rocco via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  Draghi represents the forced continuity wanted by the Paris-Berlin axis for the EU: the Italians wanted to leave in 2020, the solution was the former head of the ECB as Prime Minister. How long will it last, with galloping inflation and Poland as anti-EU?

  

  The EU is under attack, 360 degrees, from a variety of fronts. From the west, with the Brexit. From the south, with the Euro-weak countries in which people dream of leaving the euro, clearly crippled – perhaps I should say “looted” – by the so-called “expansive austerity” (an oxymoron) of Franco-German matrix. And now also from the northeast, with Poland put in check and fined by the EU for the sole fault of wanting to continue to “be Poland”. Above all, the galloping inflation, exogenous in origin, which in a few months will no longer be able to be contained even in Latin countries, which today are still silently experiencing governmental manipulation of consumer price indexes (I imagine that social peace will not last long; see the report on prices for September 2021 published by the MISE/Italian Ministry of Economic Development, with prices in general vertical ascent – very often even in double digits – but with inflation “only” at 2.9%, totally absurd).

  The above clearly points to an ongoing paradigm shift.

  That is, the EU engineered to live on devaluation with the Euro (much weaker than the hypothetical German mark), or with the hidden aim of transferring wealth from the Europeripheral countries to the center of the Empire, is finally in the priority need – on the core Europe side – to tame inflation before being able to export thanks to an artificially devalued currency.

  It is in fact clear that a country, or rather a “political continent”, without raw materials like Old Europe, is obliged to contain first of all the costs of production if it wants to hope to survive without destroying the social base on which its power is based, e.g. when inflation bites. That is to say, being tempted – on the German side – to mimic, today, with a new mark yet to come, the wise Switzerland and its franc, which has been rising steadily for months precisely in order to counter international inflationary pressures. And therefore, prospectively leaving the EU to its rubble, rubble on which Paris will certainly throw itself like a vulture, first of all on the Italian ones.

  All the more so if, in this context, the USA and the FED are anticipating – as is clearly happening – the events by making the dollar rise in an anti-inflationary capacity (but also having abundant raw materials in place, above all oil, a situation not unlike the times of the attack on Nixon, see De Gaulle’s provocation on the convertibility of dollars into gold and the subsequent Watergate scandal, ed.)

  Now then, in addition to the centrifugal drives within the EU, i.e. having as a driver the national interests of Southern Europe, mainly Italy, perfectly legitimate interests, a macro-economic context is also generating that will lead us to the epilogue expected to the title, due to inflation and related monetary policies: the controlled demolition of the EU based on the euro.

  It should be remembered, for example, that Rome has seen in recent years a massive reduction in its own welfare (e.g. in terms of wages); to this is added – TODAY – interest from the center of the Empire in a paradigm shift, the first time in almost 25 years.

  In addition, here is Poland’s recent response to the diktats of Brussels aimed at ceding superfunds (i.e. its own welfare) to EU interference; Poland clearly supported by the USA, see the so-called “Trump Base”, i.e. the US military installation in Poland recently inaugurated by the States on Polish soil.

  A brutal response to say the least: in this context the Polish government has announced that the largest fine imposed by the EU to a country that gravitates in its sphere of continental influence, will not be paid anyway.

  On the contrary Warsaw foresees a progressive enlargement of its armed forces, always with American support, a constant Anglo-Polish collaboration since the times of Brezinsky, Sikorsky and marriages in the heart of the US corporate with Polish soul (J&J above all).

  * * *

  In all this we must not underestimate the reaction of Berlin, as always upset when its plans do not follow the expected trajectory: although it has not been properly emphasized by the EU media always too pro-German, as to the Reich themes, the German move that will lead to chaos (come) is materializing before our eyes, see the incredible announcement of the German Defense Minister of military intervention in the Baltic even with the nuclear threat as anti-Russian, ie with weapons that Germans theoretically would not have (…).

  This exudes desperation (never forget that the German system, then survived in various ways the post WWII purges, is the same that laid the foundations for the atomic military industry 80 years ago, ed).

  Clearly, the US power factor remains in the background, ready to be activated if necessary to defend the stars and stripes interests. To date, however, the situation remains extremely fluid.

  We can however fix some stakes, as of now, to understand how we arrived to such a EUrocentric debacle, that is where we are today. And perhaps try to hypothesize some future developments.

  First of all, Draghi represents the real factor of continuity wanted by the EU to dampen the centrifugal pressures aimed at leaving this EU: too many people forget that only a few months ago, in 2020, the majority of Italians publicly expressed their support for an exit from the Union, as reported not without a vein of ill-concealed terror by the website german-foreign-policy.com only last year.

  Accomplice to the fall of Trump, instead, Draghi arrived to stop the Italian diaspora, after the media canonization of Draghi at the Rimini meeting last year, preparatory to his landing at Palazzo Chigi, thanks to the activism of the leader of the Milanese “Compagnia delle Opere” (the German Bernhard Scholz), a religious-ethical entity contiguous to Communion and Liberation and perhaps even reminiscent of the activism in German protection of Cardinal Ildefonso Schuster 75 years ago.

  Clearly an attempt to postpone the plan to deflagrate the EU via dollarization of Italian debt, as winked at by Giuseppe Conte in last year’s Eurogroup, behind US impetus (“…if we don’t go it alone,” said the Italian prime minister at the time, making Angela Merkel’s entourage excited).

  * * *

  In this context, it is essential to understand the genesis of Mario Draghi, a character who is grafted in a groove that is Anglo but intrinsically pro-EU. Noting that we are dealing with the area that we can roughly define as the “Cameronian world”, i.e. that pro-EU British elite that is behind the genesis, in the Peninsula, of both the 5 Star Movement and the Regeni case (no small detail, the wife of the former British Prime Minister – a Countess Astor – had a primary Christian education, ed).

  

  That is, Draghi is supported by a political-elitist area of Anglo matrix that has always been close in its interests to Paris, as German containment (to represent less summarily the address of this, let’s say, pro-European current based in the Perfect Albion, one could go back to the “Scots Guards” of Mary Stuart in the French capital, who were also in defense of Joan of Arc, ed.)

  Hence the natural closeness of the world that orbits around the current Italian Prime Minister towards what France represents, today especially given the expected turn of Berlin towards a more German set-up (Goethe himself depicted the printing of money as mephistophelian, diabolical, as it created inflation).

  Unfortunately, the above does not augur well for future Franco-Italian relations, which will certainly be to Rome’s disadvantage; a relationship that the two neighboring countries will necessarily develop from here on, that is, during the period of German meditation on what to do with the current EU, thanks to the subjugation of the Roman political class to interests that are more French than Italian.

  Hence the expectation of a new Franco-Italian strategic macro-agreement signed by Draghi soon, I repeat, to French advantage.

  

  Wages on EU, from 1990 to 2020: “Italy is the only European country where wages have decreased compared to 1990” – Openpolis on OECD data – at LINK

  In this context, with inflation now out of control, with economic growth actually close to recession if netted with the correct GDP deflator, Italian BTPs fell below a very important technical level, 150 points, only last Friday.

  At the end of the game, however, it will always be the Peninsula to act as a watershed in the fate of the EU, with its expected collapse of public finances, in the long term, i.e. with the markets very skeptical about the possibility of repaying the huge debt in euro (…): for your information, today the Italian GDP without undeclared activity exceeds 180% of GDP. And with a number of pensions paid by the State equal to about the same of the employees: it is not a question of Italian implosion by remaining in the euro, only of when.

  Finally, here creeps the Green agenda, always with Italy as center of gravity, to be saved with money borrowed from the same Italian citizens but in the name of the EU (the Recovery Fund is in lagrghissima part a loan, guaranteed in fact by the assets of Italian families), that is the total value of the PNRR of about 200 billion euros – paid in 3-4 years – of which the Recovery Fund, only about 30 billion euros are lost!

  In addition to the madness of mass vaccinations in Italy, now with a target of 90% vaccinated and with the de facto obligation of universal vaccination, under penalty of the impossibility of working. Even in this context we simply observe that there is a huge and obvious correlation now between vaccination madness in selected countries and technical failure, in fact, of their local pension systems (on all, Italy, France, Israel, Austria with its minimum retirement age still below 60 years on average, ed).

  * * *

  In conclusion, it is easy to expect a controlled demolition of the EU, starting with German and pro-German drives aimed at shielding themselves from international inflationary pressures by returning to a surrogate of the new mark, stronger than the euro. At the same time, the centrifugal drives within the EU, undeniable e.g. on the Italian side if you want to ensure a minimum of future prosperity to their people, will be concentrated in the Europeripheral countries, i.e. where the state welfare institutions are practically bankrupt. Only to end in an inevitable contingency of, let’s say, reduced monetary union, in which Paris – once Germany crosses the Rubicon of the return to a stronger currency – will play the card of a “Euro-CFA” with Italy as a wingman; or rather, a Euro Med (or better yet, French Euro) in which the African countries of the CFA franc are replaced by Italy and perhaps Greece.

  In this context, the only addendum that does not add up are the 100 US military bases in Italy, of which at least 4-5 are nuclear, together with the largest US weapons depot outside the US borders.

  It is not to be excluded, therefore, a renewed next American activism aimed – encore – to neutralize threats to its strategic interests; we believe that this effort will not be too dissimilar from what was the American intervention in Indochina or more properly in the Suez Canal (these facts led to an implosion of the residual French and veteran-European colonial network in the world, ed).

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 11/05/2021 – 02:00

• Noam Chomsky Goes Off The Deep End – Proving That All Socialism Leads To Tyranny
  Noam Chomsky Goes Off The Deep End – Proving That All Socialism Leads To Tyranny

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  I was recently watching a new interview with 92-year-old Noam Chomsky, a figure of general worship among leftist academics, and I began reminiscing about the first time I read the book ‘Manufacturing Consent’. Though I have never agreed with Chomsky’s politics I have always appreciated his analysis on the methods the establishment uses to control mass psychology and silence popular discourse. I have long felt that this was an area where the political left and conservatives might intersect in our views and find common ground. This is why I felt an extra dose of disappointment when I witnessed Chomsky go off the deep end this week and suggest that people who refuse to comply with vaccine mandates need to be ostracized from society.

  

  Chomsky compared people who don’t comply with the vaccines to people who don’t comply with traffic lights, suggesting we pose an imminent danger to others and that we should be removed. When asked how unvaxxed people forced out of the economy could be fed (how would they survive), he asserted “that is their problem.” Chomsky does not explicitly say that force should be used to eliminate the unvaxxed from social participation, he merely insinuates that “actions” might be required to get the desired effect.

  I was around 20 years of age back in 2001 when I first read Manufacturing Consent. I was young and not fully aware at the time of a basic function of the political left and socialism that is vital to understand: Many people claim there is a “spectrum” of political beliefs on the left and that there are those that support socialism or centralization while also supporting freedom, but this is simply not so. At the core of their ideology freedom has no home, and when pressed on where they truly stand every socialist WILL eventually support tyranny as a means to achieve their Utopian vision of society.

  Chomsky has long claimed himself to be a “libertarian socialist.” In the past I have found that a classic misdirection of covertly authoritarian people is to tack the “libertarian” label onto whatever they believe in. Con-men like Chomsky figure that most normies don’t actually know what libertarianism is, but they’ll assume it means that you “support liberty.” It’s a calculated abuse of the ideology designed to mask the collectivist’s true intentions.

  I don’t even know that I personally fit into the libertarian framework, but I do hold some of its basic tenets as fundamental.

  A key pillar of libertarianism is the Non-Aggression Principle – A foundational rule for society that says the use of force or coercion to impose one’s beliefs or ideology on others is wrong, and the use of force in general is wrong unless it is in defense of yourself or the lives of others. The problem with socialists and collectivists is that they ALWAYS find a way to claim that their brand of force is somehow in defense of the lives of others. That is to say, the “greater good” is the go-to excuse for all modern totalitarians.

  Chomsky will claim that his hard-line stance against unvaccinated people is predicated on saving lives, and that’s the great swindle. When science and logic is applied, we see that the vax mandates have nothing to do with protecting the lives or safety of the public. That said, those same mandates are very effective in elevating the socialist goal of total centralization. How convenient…

  Chomsky’s bias is evident in the lack of rational thought he puts forward. In fact, Chomsky never addresses the basic contradictions inherent in his claim that traffic laws and vaccine mandates are the same.

  Firstly, covid mandates are NOT laws; they are dictates that have never been voted on by a single legislature nor the American people. This means mandates are meaningless in a legal sense. At least with new traffic laws the voters or legislators get some say in potential changes. The vaccine mandates are purely totalitarian in nature and completely circumvent all constitutional checks and balances.

  Imagine if one day Biden assumed defacto control over all traffic rules, and then claimed the authority to deny all people who run red lights access to the majority of jobs and the overall economy? That would be absurd, right? Well, that’s exactly what Biden and his globalist handlers are doing with the covid mandates.

  Secondly, obeying a traffic light is not the same as allowing yourself to be injected with a barely tested experimental mRNA cocktail – a “vaccine” which numerous health and virology professionals have warned could have potentially damaging side effects including autoimmune disorders, blood clots and infertility. Traffic lights have been in existence for decades; we know a red light is not going to harm our health. The covid vaccines have been in existence for about a year and have no long term testing (that has ever been released to the public) to back their safety.

  All vaccines in common usage today were tested for at least 10 to 15 years before being released for use on the wider population. The covid vaccines were slapped together at “warp speed”, at least according the official story. Who are the guinea pigs for these mRNA jabs? The entire human population. Every person in the country is now considered a guinea pig.

  We have no idea what the implications of this unprecedented experiment will be in the next few years.

  Chomsky’s comparisons are obviously ridiculous and it’s frustrating that I’m required to point this out.  One would think that the co-author of ‘Manufacturing Consent’ would be able to easily discern the massive differences in terms of violating public freedom. But, for some reason he can’t seem to grasp the foolishness at the heart of his debate. Or, he is being deliberately ignorant because he thinks, like many globalists, that there is something to be gained in going along with the farce…

  The “greater good” theory is meant to either appeal-to or silence conservatives and libertarians that oppose the vaccines on the grounds of the non-aggression principle. Covid mandates rely on the claim that the unvaccinated are an integral danger to society as a whole, and thus force is justified. Now, I have been asking this question over and over again for the past year to any vax fanatic I run across, and not a single person has come up with a valid counter-argument:

  If the vaccines work, then how are unvaccinated people a threat to vaccinated people? If the vaccines don’t work, then why take them in the first place and why mandate them?

  What does Chomsky think the average death rate of covid actually is? Is he aware that according to dozens of peer reviewed studies the median Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of covid is only 0.27%? Who exactly are the unvaxxed a threat to? Less than 1% of the population? And if we are actually a threat to these people, then maybe THEY should take the vaccines, if they think the vaccines truly work.

  What about the fact that vaccinated people still transmit the disease to others, according the the CDC narrative?

  Furthermore, new studies from countries with very high rates of vaccination have shown that natural immunity formed by people who have already had covid (like I have) is superior in protection against future contraction or transmission of the covid virus. Natural immunity is up to 27 times more effective than the vaccines. It trumps the jab to an epic degree.

  And what about all those breakthrough cases and deaths of fully vaccinated people? Chomsky must be ignoring those as well. Nearly 60% of all people hospitalized in Israel are fully vaccinated; 56% of all covid deaths from April to October in Ireland were people who received at least one vaccination. Who caused that? Unvaxxed people most of whom have superior natural immunity? Or, vaccinated people with low comparative immunity and the ability to transmit the disease?

  Maybe Chomsky just isn’t educated on the science, or maybe he doesn’t care. Either way, his mentality is destructive and typical of socialists and leftists.

  I am reminded of a radio show I did many years ago out of the UK which presented itself as a kind of liberty forum. As it turned out, the host was a socialist with some tourism into libertarianism and he was anxious for a debate. I was a little annoyed with the ambush on the merits of socialism but my position on it is simple enough that anyone should be able to understand it:

  If a group of people want to form a community or collective based on socialist values then they should be allowed to do so in peace, as long as all participation is voluntary and they don’t try to harm anyone in the process.

  At first the show host appeared to agree with this idea, but his support of personal freedom proved superficial as the debate went on. His argument was “What about all the people in society that need our help, such as those that are in poverty or are disabled? Don’t we need a centralized system in place to manage these kinds of problems?”

  My response: “By all means, go and help those people if you want to help them. Just don’t try to force me to do it. I might want to help them too, but I will do it in my way, not yours.”

  And here is where every single socialist shows their true authoritarian colors – The host then argued that while I might be a good and charitable person the majority of people, in his mind, are not. And so, we must all be forced by government to contribute to society in the manner “society” has deemed appropriate.

  There you have it. Like Chomsky, this socialist was appealing to the greater good as a tool to impose HIS ideological vision onto everyone else; not to protect the lives and freedoms of individuals, which is the ONLY purview of government, but to make people participate in the way HE thinks they should participate. People must be forced to uphold social standards, and the social standards are coincidentally defined by the very people that benefit most from collectivism.

  At no point do socialists and leftists ever suggest that more individual freedom might be the best option for elevating the greater good. Their solutions always involve progressively less freedom for the individual and more power for the government, the same government which they expect to control.

  To be clear, I’m not talking about silly notions of anarchy, just constitutional protections for inherent freedoms. The political left only seeks to erode the liberties codified in the Bill of Rights, and no matter where they are on the leftist spectrum they all end up at the same terrible draconian place given the right circumstances.

  This is evident as the vax mandates spread around the world, with nations and states run by leftists now mired in oppression.  The facts are undeniable – Blue states are enslaved, red states are free.  Leftists support tyranny, conservatives support freedom.  Millions of people are trying to escape blue states; almost no one wants to relocate to one. 

  Even Noam Chomsky, a supposed anti-establishment champion, reverts to little more than a decrepit dictator rationalizing mass starvation when the opportunity to enforce vaccine mandates arises. Maybe he is feeling his mortality along with his age and fear of covid has overwhelmed his senses. I doubt it. I suspect the promise of collective power is so intoxicating to all socialists that their masks and costumes fall away and their true character emerges whether they want it to or not.

  There is not a single shred of scientific evidence to support the forced vaccination argument. There is not a single shred of proof to support the claim that an unvaxxed person is a threat to the safety of anyone else. I’ll say it again – Mandates are not laws, and even if they were they would be unconstitutional laws. There is nothing legal, rational, scientific or moral compelling me to submit to an experimental vaccine. Chomsky and his ilk have no leg to stand on.

  So, we are at an impasse. They want power over us, and we will not give it to them. Therefore, the law of the jungle takes over. The bottom line is this:

  I will not comply with your illegitimate mandates. IT-WILL-NEVER-HAPPEN. And if you think you can use leverage to force me to comply, threatening me with poverty and death through economic discrimination, then I will view your actions for what they are – An attack on my freedoms and my life. I will therefore respond in kind and eliminate the threat by any means necessary, and, I will be justified in doing so, constitutionally, rationally, scientifically and morally.

  Covid cultists like Chomsky, most of them leftists and socialists, should keep this in mind as they continue down this path. They think that the greater good is on their side but this is a fantasy driven by their own hunger for dominance. The question you need to ask yourselves is this: Do you really think your desire to force the mandates and your political ideology on me is greater than my will to stop you and remain free? Are you ready to risk death to impose the vax mandates? Because I am ready to risk death to end them.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 11/05/2021 – 00:05

• Texas Builds Makeshift Border Wall Using Shipping Containers
  Texas Builds Makeshift Border Wall Using Shipping Containers

  The massive trade imbalance with China has left the US with an abundance of empty shipping containers piling up at warehouses and outside parking lots around ports. Sending shipping containers back to China is often a costly task for shipping companies, and many are left in the US.

  So Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, thinking on his feet, is dealing with a twin crisis of containers and his state overrun by migrants because the Biden administration has ignored the border crisis, has repurposed containers as a makeshift wall to block illegals. 

  

  According to Breitbart’s Randy Clark, dozens of shipping containers were hauled to the banks of the Rio Grande in Texas to serve as a makeshift border wall in preparation for a migrant caravan.  

  

  

  

  Last week, Abbot told Fox News’s Tucker Carlson about his strategy to use shipping containers to shore up the border:

  “And in addition to that beginning today, we begin dropping these large containers that you see on 18-wheelers, that y’all see on these ships that are going across the ocean. We’re dropping them down on locations that could be crossings that would be used by these caravans to serve as a blockade to prevent them from coming across the border. And then on top of that, if they do come across the border, the National Guard and the Texas Department of Public Safety, they are authorized to arrest any of these people who make it through out blockade efforts and put them in jail for violating a crime of criminal trespass in the state of Texas.”

  The governor said they’re placing the containers at hot spots known for illegal crossing. National Guard and Department of Public Safety troopers will be stationed behind the containers to prevent the caravan from penetrating the border. 

  On Thursday, Rep. Troy Nehls told Fox & Friends that the new border barrier was “a great idea.” 

  “It’s a tool that the governor is using to try to help slow down, curb this invasion, this invasion that we’re seeing at our southern border,” said Nehls.

  Only the Biden administration can end the migrant crisis by securing the border and enforcing stricter immigration policies. But that is not in their interest as a flood of migrants have illegally crossed into the US. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 23:45

• Plans Of A Technocratic Elite: 'The Great Reset' Is Not A Conspiracy Theory
  Plans Of A Technocratic Elite: ‘The Great Reset’ Is Not A Conspiracy Theory

  Authored by Michael Rectenwald via The Mises Institute,

  In previous installments, I introduced the Great Reset idea and treated it in terms of its economic and ideological components. In this installment, I will discuss what the Great Reset entails in terms of governance and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4-IR), closing with remarks about the overall Great Reset project and its implications.

  

  According to Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF), the 4-IR follows the first, second, and third Industrial Revolutions—the mechanical, electrical, and digital, respectively. The 4-IR builds on the digital revolution, but Schwab sees the 4-IR as an exponential takeoff and convergence of existing and emerging fields, including Big Data; artificial intelligence; machine learning; quantum computing; and genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics. The consequence is the merging of the physical, digital, and biological worlds. The blurring of these categories ultimately challenges the very ontologies by which we understand ourselves and the world, including “what it means to be human.”

  The specific applications that make up the 4-R are too numerous and sundry to treat in full, but they include a ubiquitous internet, the internet of things, the internet of bodies, autonomous vehicles, smart cities, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and more.

  While Schwab and the WEF promote a particular vision for the 4-IR, the developments he announces are not his brainchildren, and there is nothing original about his formulations. Transhumanists and Singularitarians (or prophets of the technological singularity), such as Ray Kurzweil and many others, forecasted these and more revolutionary developments, .long before Schwab heralded them. The significance of Schwab and the WEF’s take on the new technological revolution is the attempt to harness it to a particular end, presumably “a fairer, greener future.”

  But if existing 4-IR developments are any indication of the future, then Schwab’s enthusiasm is misplaced, and the 4-IR is misrepresented. These developments already include internet algorithms that feed users prescribed news and advertisements and downrank or exclude banned content; algorithms that censor social media content and consign “dangerous” individuals and organizations to digital gulags; apps that track and trace covid suspects and report violators to the police; robot police with QR code scanners to identify and round up dissenters; and smart cities where everyone is a digital entity to be monitored, surveilled, and recorded, while data on their every move is collected, collated, stored, and attached to a digital identity and social credit score.

  That is, 4-IR technologies subject human beings to a technological management that makes the earlier surveillance by the National Security Agency look like child’s play. Schwab lauds future developments that will connect brains directly to the cloud, enabling the “data mining” of thought and memory, a technological mastery over experience that threatens individual autonomy and undermines any semblance of free will. The 4-IR accelerates the merging of humans and machines, resulting in a world in which all information, including genetic information, is shared and every action, thought, and unconscious motivation is known, predicted, and possibly even precluded. Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World comes to mind. Yet Schwab touts brain-cloud interfaces as enhancements, as vast improvements over standard human intelligence, thus lending them an appeal not at all imaginable for soma.

  Many positive developments may come from the 4-IR, but unless it is taken out of the hands of the corporate-socialist technocrats, it will constitute a virtual prison.

  Under the Great Reset governance model, states and favored corporations form “public-private partnerships” in control of governance. The configuration yields a corporate-state hybrid largely unaccountable to the constituents of national governments.

  The cozy relationship between multinational corporations and governments has even aroused the scorn of a few left-leaning critics. They note that the governance model of the WEF represents at least the partial privatization of the UN’s Agenda 2030, with the WEF bringing corporate partners, money, and supposed expertise on the 4-IR to the table. And the WEF’s governance model extends well beyond the UN, affecting the constitution and behavior of governments worldwide. This usurpation has led political scientist Ivan Wecke to call the WEF’s governmental redesign of the world system “a corporate takeover of global governance.”

  This is true, but the obverse is also the case. The WEF model also represents the governmentalization of private industry. Under Schwab’s “stakeholder capitalism” and the multistakeholder governance model, governance is not only increasingly privatized, but also and more importantly, corporations are deputized as major additions to governments and intergovernmental bodies. The state is thereby extended, enhanced, and augmented by the addition of enormous corporate assets. These include funding directed at “sustainable development” to the exclusion of the noncompliant, as well as the use of Big Data, artificial intelligence, and 5G to monitor and control citizens. In the case of the covid vaccine regime, the state grants Big Pharma monopoly protection and indemnity from liability in exchange for a vehicle by which to expand its powers of coercion. As such, corporate stakeholders become what I have called “governmentalities”—otherwise “private” organizations wielded as state apparatuses, with no obligation to answer to pesky constituents. Since these corporations are multinational, the state essentially becomes global, whether or not a “one-world government” is ever formalized.

  In Google Archipelago, I argued that leftist authoritarianism is the political ideology and modus operandi of what I call Big Digital, and that Big Digital is the leading edge of an emerging world system. Big Digital is the communications, ideological, and technological arm of an emerging corporate socialism. The Great Reset is the name that has since been given to the project of establishing this world system.

  Just as Klaus Schwab and the WEF hoped, the covid crisis has accelerated the development of the Great Reset’s corporate-socialist statism. Developments advancing the Great Reset agenda include the Federal Reserve’s unrestrained printing of money, the subsequent inflation, the increasing taxation on everything imaginable, the increased dependence on the state, the supply chain crisis, the restrictions and job losses due to vaccine mandates, and the prospect of personal carbon allowances. Altogether, these and other such policies constitute a coordinated attack on the majority. Ironically, they also represent the “fairness” aspect of the Great Reset—if we properly understand fairness to mean leveling the economic status of the “average American” with those in less “privileged” regions. And this is one of the functions of woke ideology – to make the majority in developed countries feel unworthy of their “privileged” lifestyles and consumption patterns, which the elite are in the process of resetting to a reduced and static new normal.

  Over the past twenty-one months, the response to the covid-19 scourge has consolidated the monopolistic corporations’ grip on the economy on top, while advancing “actually-existing socialism” below. In partnership with Big Tech, Big Pharma, the legacy media, national and international health agencies, and compliant populations, hitherto “democratic” Western states are increasingly being transformed into totalitarian regimes modeled after China, seemingly overnight. I need not provide a litany of the tyranny and abuses. You can read about them on alternative news sites—until you can no longer read about them even there.

  The Great Reset, then, is not merely a conspiracy theory; it is an open, avowed, and planned project, and it is well underway. But because capitalism with Chinese characteristics, or corporate-socialist statism, lacks free markets and depends on the absence of free will and individual liberty, it is, ironically, “unsustainable,” and doomed to fail. The question is just how much suffering and distortion will be endured until it does.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 23:25

• China Tries To Quash Taiwan War Rumors Online After Citizens Start Stockpiling Food & Survival Gear
  China Tries To Quash Taiwan War Rumors Online After Citizens Start Stockpiling Food & Survival Gear

  There’s been a noticeable uptick in Western media headlines predicting looming war between China and Taiwan, and reports of preparations for a near-future mainland invasion of the autonomous democratic-run island. This especially after both US defense officials and Taiwan’s leaders recently for the first time confirmed the presence of US Marines there.

  This state of things, along with the increasingly bellicose rhetoric of some US officials and media pundits – answered by Beijing’s assertion of its “red lines” on growing US involvement in Taiwan centering on weapons sales – has fueled frenzied speculation on social media. Authorities in China are now trying to reign in the speculation of imminent war among Chinese citizens online. 

  

  But the profusion of internet rumors that wartime preparations are being made has also been fueled by Chinese state broadcasters themselves. In some places this reportedly caused citizens to begin stocking up on food and supplies.

  Bloomberg, for example, details that “Chinese social media networks have seen a flurry of chatter about a possible Taiwan crisis in recent days, seemingly fuelled by Beijing’s call for citizens to stockpile food and an unrelated message claiming to show the nation was preparing to mobilize military reserves.”

  The report underscores that “The surge came after a report by China’s state broadcaster saying that Taiwanese were hoarding their own survival supplies.”

  Ironically it also appears that President Xi Jinping’s recent tough talk – for example this past summer warning pro-independence leaders that foreign meddlers will “get their heads bashed” – has backfired to some degree as his own population is increasingly buying into hype that war is just around the corner. Bloomberg provides an example of the kind of viral content that state censors are now trying to quash:

  On Tuesday (Nov 2), the Economic Daily published a commentary urging the public “not to over read” a Ministry of Commerce statement encouraging families to stock up on some daily necessities due to supply-chain concerns. Later on Tuesday, a social media account affiliated with the official People’s Liberation Army Daily newspaper denounced the mobilisation rumours as a “vile” and “malicious fabrication.”

  “It will not only cause negative impact to the state, the military and society, it could also lead to severe consequences,” said the account, Junzhengping.

  Chinese government: We might go to war

  Chinese internet: YAY WAR YAY WAR YAY WARRRR

  Chinese government: Uhh, actually, that’s not what we meant…https://t.co/njCqJqAOuV

  — Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) November 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But as with any messaging that goes viral whether true or false, it inevitably results in furthering the rumors:

  On Wednesday morning, the Junzhengping denial was among the top-trending topics on the Weibo social media network. Still, the war talk continued to simmer, with a 63-year-old video of PLA generals singing that they “will definitely plant the flag of victory on Taiwan” getting more than 130 million views.

  The Commerce Ministry notification about ensuring enough supplies and stable prices for essential staples in supermarkets in some instances triggered hoarding and a degree of panic buying among some:

  War fears or not, there were scattered reports of runs on rice, noodles and cooking oil in some Chinese cities, according to local media. The more immediate worry for some was the possibility of neighborhood lockdowns as a COVID-19 outbreak spreads in several provinces.

  The government moved quickly to try to tamp down fears with assurances of sufficient supplies. A bright yellow sign in an aisle of a Beijing supermarket asked customers to buy reasonably and not to listen to rumors or stockpile goods.

  Other reports suggested survival gear was also flying off the shelves in some locales.

  Another fear among officials is that given Xi has lately pushed a message of “peaceful reunification” of Taiwan, while expressing the desire to win over the Taiwanese population by persuasion, online and media war rumors can only serve to polarize the situation. So it appears state media is now frantically trying to walk back a number of its own prior over-sensationalized claims regarding the tense Taiwan situation.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 23:05

• Constitution City, Est. 2021
  Constitution City, Est. 2021

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

  Brownwood, Texas, today is bustling like never before. The old hotel downtown is being renovated after sitting in decay for decades.

  The restaurants are packed. Houses are selling for 20% more than their Zillow values. The banks are experiencing a big influx of funds. New residents are pouring in from around the country. Everyone is making money. It’s a charming and happy place, except that everyone complains about the car traffic.

  That’s a nice problem.

  One year and a half ago, life was different. It was like a ghost town. The mall was empty. The shops were closed. You could not see anyone on the streets. Maybe a straggler or two. The hotels were empty. Local businesses were struggling to stay afloat using various takeout techniques and deliveries.

  It seemed like a town in its death throes. What a difference between the two!

  

  An Oasis in a World Gone Mad

  I, in fact, attended a downtown street party there just a few months ago. The lust for living was on full display. No one, not one person, wore a mask. The bars were packed. Street vendors were selling their goods. It felt like some mecca of real life in a world gone crazy. Brownwood, Texas, was determined to live again.

  Clearly the experience of death and life burned deeply in the hearts of many of the city’s primary stakeholders. It’s like they said: Never again. Now the town is not only back, but bustling, happy and beautiful again.

  The city council has just made history, as the first city in Texas to declare itself to be a “Constitutional City.”

  Constitutional City, USA

  What do they mean by “Constitution City”? It means that the government cannot and will not pass any laws that violate the Bill of Rights. This is clearly motivated as a response to the lockdowns that nearly wrecked the place.

  As a local news outlet wrote:

  The resolution does not mention COVID or the COVID vaccine but states the commissioners court “is determined to stand as a constitutional county” and recited the rights including freedom of expression, speech, association, religion, press and petition, the right to keep and bear arms, the right to protection from government overreach and the right not to be deprived of life, liberty or property without due process of law.

  The resolution states the Brown County “recognizes, respects and upholds the First and Second Amendment rights and will use “all legal means at its disposal to oppose, within the limits of the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of Texas” any efforts to “unconstitutionally restrict” those rights.

  Lose Freedom to Gain It

  It was F.A. Hayek who wrote in 1947 that no people love freedom more than those who have more recently lost all of it. He continued that his hope was that Americans did not have to lose theirs entirely before they woke up and realized the dangerous trends of rising state power and finally stand up and say: enough.

  Sadly, we did have to lose massive amounts of freedom before that day arrived. But it is arriving. Not as quickly as we might like. Not fast enough to save the economy and the dollar, both of which are going down fast. We are headed to a recession again, not having even recovered from the last one, and the dollar is tanking relative to what we can buy with it.

  Even so, Americans are standing up for freedom finally. Here are some signs of hope:

  • The Biden administration is down 10 points underwater and the trend of his approval ratings look very bad for the White House

  • School boards all over the country are being overthrown due to tolerating lockdowns and forced masking and testing

  • New polls show a dramatic turnaround in attitudes toward government

  • It’s clear that many industries and workers are standing up to vaccine mandates

  • The airline “sickouts” have caused Southwest Airlines to back down somewhat

  • People are in the streets in Sacramento protesting the mandates

  • Alternative news sources are booming while polls show less trust for the mainstream than ever before

  • We are starting to win in the courts

  • Bitcoin just reached a new high — a clear repudiation of mainstream financial opinion.

  Wait for the Media Outcry

  Now, with this new movement toward Constitutional Cities we are seeing a real form of declaring independence. If the federal government doesn’t care, and state governors don’t care, at least cities can stand up for what we are supposed to believe in as a country.

  It’s a beautiful idea. We can hope this model will be copied all over the country.

  But let’s watch: In a matter of a few weeks, the attacks on the Constitutional Cities movement will start hitting hard. CNN will discover that some activist somewhere has a sketchy background or even attended the Jan. 6 protest in D.C. The movement will be declared “far right” and “extremist” and probably “racist” and who knows what else.

  Know this: It’s utter bunk. These are good citizens who care about liberty and freedom and swear to never again allow their cities and towns to be torn apart by fools, charlatans, liars and thieves, even if they say it has to happen because they are smart scientists who know how to handle disease. These cities are imposing a real restraint at least in rhetoric.

  And also there is a strong economic incentive to declare one’s city to be a Constitutional City. It attracts tourists and investment dollars. If you are thinking of opening a business, wouldn’t it be a safer bet to choose such a city over a place like Chicago or San Francisco? At least you could pretty much count on some resistance to lockdowns or sudden tax increases or speech controls.

  Building Back Better

  I’m particularly impressed at the movement around the First Amendment. It’s become almost banned on Facebook even to post inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The other day, Zuckerberg even censored a respected economist who pointed to the known data.

  Just because government has outsourced its violations of the Bill of Rights to private companies doesn’t make it kosher. It’s nothing but a sneaky trick to get around the courts.

  Most of us have felt trapped for two years. This is what they wanted. They wanted us confused, separated, silenced and unable to find a way out. But we’ll figure it out. We are figuring it out right now.

  This is one promising path. It won’t stop the coming economic chaos but it lays a good foundation for rebuilding in the future.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 22:45

• Payrolls Preview: This One Actually Matters
  Payrolls Preview: This One Actually Matters

  October’s NFP (consensus exp. +450k) prints tomorrow morning, two days after the FOMC taper announcement on Wednesday. And due to the flexible nature of the monthly tapering, employment reports (together with inflation prints) will now be far more critical as part of the broader evolution of data, which if too divergent could serve to accelerate/decelerate the pace of tapering, not to mention their importance in gauging the road to full employment, and as a result eventual rate lift-off.

  As Newsquawk notes in its NFP preview, labor proxies have largely been constructive, with the ADP report surprising to the upside, although everyone knows about the rocky correlation between the two. Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims continued to show a decline to successive post-pandemic lows after some prior bumps due to Hurricane Ida. ISM business surveys continued to signal growth, with the Manufacturing employment sub-index rising further into expansionary territory, but Services declining slightly with continued high rates of turnover, albeit still above 50.0. While Challenger Layoffs saw the second consecutive M/M rise to take the level to its highest since May, the firm reported vaccine mandates as the biggest factor for October layoffs.

  WIth that in mind, here is what consensus expects when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October employment situation report at 08:30EDT on November 5th:

  • Change in nonfarm Payrolls: exp. 450K, Last 194K
  • China in private nonfarm payrolls: exp. 415K, Last 317K
  • Unemployment rate: exp. 4.7%, Last 4.6%
  • Underemployment rate: exp. Last 8.5%
  • Labor force participation rate: exp. 61.8%, Last 61.6%
  • Average hourly earnings M/M:  exp. 0.4%, Last 0.6%
  • Average hourly earnings Y/Y:  exp. 4.9%, last 4.6%

  POLICY: The October jobs report comes two days after the Fed made its taper announcement. The FOMC statement said that the taper rate of USD 10bln/m and USD 5bln/m of Treasuries and MBS, respectively, could change if needed. Accordingly, an extreme jobs report in either direction could serve to be the trigger for taper adjustments. Meanwhile, Powell said he wants to see more progress on the employment rate before considering rate lift-off, but interestingly, said maximum employment could be met by the middle of next year (although Powell had no clue just what that means).

  PAYROLLS: The consensus looks for 450k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in October after 194k in September, which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rates at 550k/month and 583k /month, respectively. Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, 154mln Americans are employed as of September, still down by around 5mln from pre-pandemic levels.

  Goldman Sachs looks for +525k, above the consensus of +450k. As the bank writes, “after two weak months of job growth, tomorrow’s report reflects the first full month of hiring following the expiration of federal enhanced unemployment benefits. The bank’s forecast reflects improving public health, strong labor demand,and a partial education rebound as schools gradually fill positions left open at the start of the school year. On the negative side, the seasonal factors may have evolved to fit the strong October 2020 data, raising the seasonal hurdle into morrow’s report.

  MEASURES OF SLACK: The Unemployment Rate is expected at 4.7% (prev. 4.8%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.6% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.5% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.7% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack will again be used to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labor market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Indeed, Powell on Wednesday reiterated his view that the unemployment rate understates the shortfall in employment with ground still to be made.

  EARNINGS: Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4.9% Y/Y (prev. +4.6%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.8hrs (prev. 34.8hrs). ADP: The ADP National Employment Report was encouraging, showing 571k jobs added in October, beating the expected +400k and a better pace than the prior +523k (revised lower from +568k). The report highlighted “Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months”. Note ADP’s correlation to ADP lately has been far from perfect, thus should be taken with a pinch of salt when trying to determine the strength of the BLS’ NFP. Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggest “The October ADP report is consistent with a strong pace of job gains following the end of the federal enhanced unemployment benefits, and we continue to expect nonfarm payroll growth to rebound in this Friday’s employment report”.

  INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at 291k – down from the 351k for the September jobs data survey window – where analysts said claims had fallen at a faster rate than the bump up induced from Hurricane Ida; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.480mln in the October survey period vs 2.802mln in the September survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to a declining trend, with the bump in prior months seemingly fading.

  BUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends again in October, with the service sector employment sub-index easing to 51.6 from 53.0, signalling growth, but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing equivalent rose for a second month, printing 52.0 from 50.2. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies are still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but for a second month there were modest signs of progress: “An increasing percentage of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to less than 5 percent in September.” It said, “an overwhelming majority of panellists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,” where 90% of comments were about seeking additional staffing, while 28% of those expressed difficulty in filling positions down from “nearly half” in September. “The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,” ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity remained in expansionary territory for a fourth straight month; respondents noted, “Staffing and turnover remain significant challenges” and “Continued difficulty filling positions, especially front-line.” Also, “Drivers are in short supply; rate of turnover has increased.”

  CHALLENGER LAYOFFS: Job cuts rose to 22.8k in October, the highest since May, from 17.9k in September, marking the second consecutive M/M rise from the Challenger report. 22% of those cuts were attributed to vaccine mandate refusals. Challenger writes, “Last month, the majority of cuts (5,796) were attributed to plant, store, and unit closing. Workers’ refusing to comply with vaccine mandates accounted for 5,071 cuts in October.” It adds, “Since June, when vaccines were widely available to adults, 6,843 workers have been cut or left their jobs for this reason. It is currently the 10th highest reason for job cuts this year.” On seasonal hiring, “Through October, Challenger has tracked 939,300 seasonal hiring plans from Retailers, Transportation, and Warehousing companies, up 11% from the 849,350 announced during the 2020 holiday season.” Challenger concludes, “It is the most since the firm began tracking these direct announcements in 2012.”

  ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT

  • End of federal enhanced unemployment benefits. The expiration of federal benefits in some states boosted job-finding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. As shown in Exhibit 1, the microdata indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-finding probabilities for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all benefits. 4.2mnindividuals stopped receiving unemployment compensation between early September and the October survey week, and we are assuming a boost to October job growth on the order of 250k-400k from this channel.

  

  • Public health. The Delta wave coincided with a late-summer slowdown in job growth, with leisure and hospitality employment growth slowing sharply in August and September (see Exhibit 2). Covid infection rates peaked just before the September survey period and steadily declined over the following month, and restaurant seatings on Open Table have also rebounded (see same Exhibit). Leisure and hospitality job growth picked up from the +56k average pace of the last two reports to around 200-250k in October. This would still be well below the ~400k monthly pace of June and July. Relatedly, the number of workers on unpaid leave increased by 742k cumulatively in August and September (sa by GS), some of whom likely returned to work in time for the October survey period.

  

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed but generally encouraging between the September and October survey weeks. Four of the five measures tracked indicate an above-consensus payroll gain (see Exhibit 3). However, the Homebase data that directionally flagged last month’s payroll miss indicates a smaller rise

  

  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 571k in October, above consensus expectations for a 400k gain and consistent with strong growth in the ADP panel. Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally increased in October. The Goldman services survey employment tracker increased 0.2pt to 54.6 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker increased 1.4pt to 59.0. The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) increased 4.4pt to 72.9 in October, and the employment component rose 2.1pt to a record-high of 74.0.
  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—increased to 45.0, the highest level since 2000. JOLTS job openings decreased by 659k in August to 10.4mn but remain significantly higher than the pre-pandemic record. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims fell during the October payroll month, averaging 320k per week vs. 339k in September. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 572k from survey week to survey week.

  ARGUING FOR A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED REPORT:

  • Seasonality. The October seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last October’s reopening-driven job surge (privatepayrolls +954k mom sa). Coupled with above-trend October growth in several of the years leading up to the crisis, the seasonal factors may evolve to offset some of the strength we forecast in the BLS employment panel in tomorrow’s report.
  • Vaccine mandates. The vaccine mandates announced by the Biden administration non September 9 may have weighed on October job growth in healthcare and government. But while the mandates apply to roughly 25mn unvaccinated workers,the deadline for compliance is generally not until early January. Accordingly, any payroll growth drag is more likely to materialize in future reports.

  NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS:

  • School reopening. Education payrolls declined 180k in September (public and private), despite all 100 of the largest school districts being open for in-person learning, as some janitors and support staff did not return for the fall school year,perhaps due to labor supply constraints. While schools will eventually fill these open positions, the start-of-year catalyst for a large rise in education jobs has passed, and Goldman assumes only around 50k of job creation in these industries in tomorrow’s report (mom sa).
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 18% month-over-month in October after increasing by 12% in September (sa by GS).Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 22:25

• Ron Paul: Resist The Unique Patient Identifier!
  Ron Paul: Resist The Unique Patient Identifier!

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Mises Institute,

  If people who torture animals are psychopaths, then what are government officials who use taxpayer dollars to fund animal torture? Many are asking this question in the wake of revelations that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, headed by Dr. Anthony Fauci—high priest of the COVID cult—funded medical “research” involving the torture of puppies. This led “Fire Fauci” to trend on Twitter, and People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) to call for his resignation.

  

  The puppy torture story was followed by disclosures that the federal government funded the testing of experimental AIDS vaccines on orphans. Many of the orphans used as human guinea pigs subsequently died, and nurses who assisted in these experiments reported that many children got sick immediately after receiving the vaccines.

  Testing dangerous drugs on orphans and torturing puppies in the name of “science” is certainly shocking, but is it really surprising that government would fund these types of activities? What is the difference between using orphans and puppies for cruel experiments in the name of protecting public health and killing innocent children in drone attacks in the name of stopping terrorism?

  Ironically, these revelations come when Congress is on the verge of allowing the federal bureaucracy to destroy what remains of our medical privacy. Both the Senate and House versions of the Labor, Education, and Health and Human Services Appropriations bill remove the prohibition on the development of a “unique patient identifier.”

  The prohibition on funding for the unique patient identifier, which I sponsored, has been in place since 1998. The push to allow the government to force every American to obtain a unique patient identifier is being justified as a means to efficiently monitor Americans’ “contact and immunization” status.

  When I began fighting the unique patient ID in the 1990s, my opponents denied that medical identifiers would make it impossible to ensure confidentiality of medical records. Now, they are saying we should support medical identifiers because they allow government officials, employers, schools, airlines, and even stores and restaurants to discover what, if any, vaccinations or other medical treatments we have or have not received. The result of the identifier will be a medical caste system, where those who refuse to follow the mandates or advice of the “experts” are denied opportunities to work, receive an education, or even go to church or enjoy a night out on the town.

  A unique patient identifier will weaken health care by making individuals reluctant to share personal information—such as drug and alcohol use and past sexual history—with health care providers. It will also discourage sick individuals from seeking medical care for fear their physicians will discover they are unvaccinated, smoke, are overweight, or engage in other unapproved behaviors.

  A unique medical ID could also be tied to government records of gun purchases. Someone with “too many” guns could be labeled a potential mental health risk and harassed by law enforcement. This is especially likely if the gun grabbers are successful in their push to enact “red flag” laws in every state.

  Fortunately, there is a growing resistance to vaccines and other mandates. This resistance is unlikely to passively accept a federally-issued unique patient identifier. If those of us who know the truth take advantage of the opportunity presented by the resistance to COVID tyranny, we can not only stop the scheme to force every American to obtain a “unique patient identifier” but end all government control of our health care.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 22:05

• Duke Energy Warns Of Higher Power Prices As Tight Coal/Gas Supplies Loom This Winter
  Duke Energy Warns Of Higher Power Prices As Tight Coal/Gas Supplies Loom This Winter

  Duke Energy Corporation warned Thursday that coal and natural gas supplies would be tight this winter, resulting in higher power prices for customers. Duke operates a diverse mix of power plants – including coal, hydro, natural gas, nuclear, solar, and wind – and battery storage facilities across several regions and states, including the Carolinas, Florida, and Midwest. 

  Duke Energy CFO Steve Young said coal and natural gas prices are the highest since 2014, and these two essential commodities are in short supply. 

  “It’s been a while,” since we’ve seen commodity prices like this.

  “The winter of 2014, we had a very cold polar vortex winter, and we saw spiking of gas prices,” Young said, who was quoted by Bloomberg on Thursday. 

  He noted the Duke has adequate coal and gas reserves for this fall/winter but stressed a shortage of supplies in the overall commodity market has forced prices higher. 

  

  Young said its fossil fuel power generation plants would pass on higher costs to customers. Higher power prices will be another blow to consumers who have already had their real wages crushed by soaring food, gasoline, and shelter costs. 

  “Regions that rely more on gas or coal for heat and electricity will see rates increase more than regions where a greater proportion of power comes from nuclear, hydropower or renewable energy,” he said.

  

  The cause of the energy crunch is due to the rising global demand for fossil fuel as the global energy transition to alternative power sources, such as solar and wind, has been nothing short of a disaster. 

  Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources, the largest U.S. exporter of fuel, also warned about coal supply constraints. He said power companies are already “discussing possible grid blackouts this winter.” 

  Last month, NOAA’s 2021 Winter Outlook was published. For the second consecutive winter, it outlined that La Nina conditions are emerging and will impact weather across the U.S.

  “Consistent with typical La Nina conditions during winter months, we anticipate below-normal temperatures along portions of the northern tier of the U.S. while much of the South experience above-normal temperatures,” the report said. 

  Heating demand across the country is rising as temps drop. 

  

  In short, the millions of Americans that rely on Duke for power could be slapped with higher power bills if cold weather is seen. More evidence that inflation is not as “transitory” as the Federal Reserve wants everyone to believe. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 21:45

• More Americans Now Oppose Than Support 'Black Lives Matter', New Poll Finds
  More Americans Now Oppose Than Support ‘Black Lives Matter’, New Poll Finds

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  A new poll has found that more Americans now oppose Black Lives Matter than support it for the first time in over three years.

  

  Support for Black Lives Matter spiked following the police killing of George Floyd, but after months of violent rioting throughout the summer of 2020, it has consistently fallen.

  A new survey by Civiqs reveals that 44 per cent of Americans oppose the far-left organization compared to 43 per cent who still support it.

  

  Driving the turndown in sentiment towards the group is the views of Independents and Hispanic/Latino voters.

  

  

  The summer 2020 riots, described by news outlets like CNN as “mostly peaceful,” were the most damaging in U.S. history, with total insurance industry payouts exceeding $2 billion.

  An essay written by academics Jennifer Chudy and Hakeem Jefferson published by the New York Times earlier this year analyzed how support for BLM soared to +20% in mid-2020 but rapidly dropped to only +5% – which is where it was in mid-2019.

  Now that number has entered negative territory despite BLM enjoying massive widespread media endorsement and consistent backing from celebrities and cultural institutions.

  As we highlighted back in July, the deep state appears to be concerned that more Americans are learning the truth about the extremist group.

  It was revealed that the Pentagon is working with a contractor to track web searches that it describes as indicators of “white supremacy,” citing the phrase “the truth about black lives matter” as one example.

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 21:25

• Biden Approves $650 Million Missile Sale To Saudis After Earlier Vowing To End War In Yemen
  Biden Approves $650 Million Missile Sale To Saudis After Earlier Vowing To End War In Yemen

  Despite the prior stated intent by the Biden White House to see an immediate end to the war in Yemen, the administration on Thursday announced that it’s approving a new $650 million sale of air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM) and related equipment to Saudi Arabia.

  “The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and related equipment for an estimated cost of $650 million,” a Pentagon statement announced. Specifically it includes up to 280 air-to-air missiles.

  What’s been described as the “forgotten war” in Yemen has raged since 2015, with for much of that period the Pentagon providing direct assistance to Saudi-UAE coalition airstrikes against Yemeni Houthi rebels backed by Iran. Prior US involvement in the Saudi-waged war grew increasingly controversial, given the high civilian death toll – amid a total estimated death toll of over 130,000 Yemenis killed. 

  

  Further the United Nations within the past two years has designated the conflict “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” Recall that back in February Biden earned bipartisan praise for the following foreign policy “promises”:

  In his first major foreign policy address, President Joe Biden on Feb. 4 declared his commitment to “end the war in Yemen,” which he called a “humanitarian and strategic catastrophe.” The president announced that the US would stop assisting all “offensive operations” in that impoverished country and halt all “relevant arms sales” to the Saudi Arabia/UAE-led coalition that is waging war there. 

  In describing the rationale for the new massive weapons sale to the kingdom, the Thursday Biden administration statement characterized the ‘defensive’ nature of the systems:

  We’ve seen an increase in cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia over the past year. Saudi AIM-120C missiles, deployed from Saudi aircraft, have been instrumental in intercepting these attacks that also US forces at risk and over 70,000 US citizens in the Kingdom at risk.

  There have been multiple missile and drone attacks launched out of Yemen over the past year, with the Iran-backed Houthis showing increased sophistication and reach. 

  Astoundingly, Pentagon also claimed that the Saudi kingdom is a “force for progress” in the Middle East: “This proposed sale will support US foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a friendly country that continues to be an important force for political and economic progress in the Middle East,” it said.

  .@StateDept authorizes a proposed Foreign Military Sale #FMS to #SaudiArabia for their purchase of up to 280 AIM-120C-7/C-8 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and related equipment for an estimated cost of up to $650 million. #FMSUpdate — https://t.co/yRFGtkrFPC pic.twitter.com/TsoBgJrbSg

  — Political-Military Affairs, US Dept of State (@StateDeptPM) November 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Notably the weapons transfer will include medium-range missiles for Saudi fighter jets, which will likely directly aid in the continued Saudi bombing of Yemen as it continues to lay siege the country – further contributing to the humanitarian crisis of famine, disease, and lack of basic medicines. 

  Prior analysis we featured days ago described described that there’s currently a diplomatic push to get a ceasefire in place, and ultimately end the war. While this would get the Saudis out of the negative coverage of the war, the kingdom seems to be focused on what they can get out of the US for heading down this path.

  NEW: Biden is selling Saudi Arabia $650 million in missiles, calls the move “fully consistent” with ending the war in Yemen. pic.twitter.com/UPBwEpMYtz

  — Akbar Shahid Ahmed (@AkbarSAhmed) November 4, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  So it appears the US administration is now seeking to justify its freshly approving the new missile deal by attempting it to link it to conditions that would end the war in Yemen. Though there doesn’t seem to be anything Riyadh has firmly or definitively agreed to just yet.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 21:05

• California Forced To Embrace Natural Gas
  California Forced To Embrace Natural Gas

  Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  Severe droughts and wildfires this year have pushed California to turn to natural gas in order to secure its energy supplies this winter, Reuters has reported, with the California Public Utility Commission to vote this week on expanding the gas storage facility in Los Angeles.

  

  Droughts severely cut hydropower generation in the state, while wildfires compromised electricity imports, which are a big part of California’s energy mix. The state also has plans to shut down four gas-fired plants and its nuclear plant, and last month the PUC ordered utilities to start buying renewable power and battery storage, the Wall Street Journal reported.

  “While the companies are moving quickly to contract for power, the California Energy Commission and the state’s grid operator have recently expressed concern that the purchases may not be enough to prevent electricity shortages in coming summers,” the report said.

  Per the Reuters report, also this week, regulators will vote on increasing the amount of gas stored at the biggest gas storage facility in California – Aliso Canyon.

  The facility is problematic: six years ago, a months-long leak made headlines, and there have been suggestions that it must be shut down.

  The problems with Aliso Canyon have contributed to California’s tight gas supplies along with a lack of pipelines. But, according to PUC Commissioner Martha Guzman Aceves, a small boost in capacity “will allow us to get through this winter while we continue our progress toward planning how to reduce or eliminate our use of Aliso Canyon by 2027 or 2035, or any time in between.”

  Until that happens, the planned closure of gas-fired plants could be delayed yet again.

  Initially, they were scheduled for retirement last year, but fears of blackouts in the evenings, when demand rises but solar power output declines, prompted a postponement. Now, one will be shut down this year and the other three in 2023.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 20:45

• Thousands Of Active-Duty Air Force Members Miss Deadline For COVID Shots 
  Thousands Of Active-Duty Air Force Members Miss Deadline For COVID Shots 

  The Pentagon announced a vaccine mandate for military personnel across all armed service branches at the end of August. Many of them have complied with the mandate, but two months later, at least 8,500 active-duty members of the Air Force and Space Force are in non-compliance and risk being kicked out of the military, according to AP News. 

  As of Wednesday, the Air Force has 326,000 active-duty members of the Air Force and Space Force, with 95.9% fully vaccinated and 96.9% with at least one shot. Tuesday was the deadline for active-duty members to be vaxxed. 

  

  Around 8,500 service members had not been vaxxed as of Tuesday. A total of 800 had “verbally refused,” 2,753 had not started the vaccination process, and 4,933 have pending religious exemptions. 

  “Over the next 30 days, the Department of the Air Force will review requests for medical exemptions and religious accommodations,” the service said.

  The hard part comes as the service will begin to discipline airmen and guardians for non-compliance. 

  “Commanders retain the full range of disciplinary options available to them under law and policy, some of which includes issuing administrative paperwork, imposing nonjudicial punishment, or referring court-martial charges,” the Air Force said.

  Already, the service has discharged about 40 people from basic military training and technical training for refusing to be vaxxed. 

  Each branch of the military decided on different deadlines. The Air Force has the earliest deadlines. 

  Navy Seals were informed a little more than a month ago that they wouldn’t be deployed if they refused the jab. 

  Thousands of servicemen and women don’t want the jab because of the same beliefs of millions of unvaccinated Americans: They believe in natural immunity.

  As for the Air Force, what might happen next is a mass expulsion of non-vaxxed service members. There was no word on what career fields the un-vaxxed were in. If some are pilots, especially ones operating stealth jets and bombers, the overreaching vaxx mandate could jeopardize America’s readiness for war. 

  We wonder how many active-duty military members will just end up quitting over the mandate? 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 20:25

• Senate Bill Would Give Taiwan $3 Billion In US Military Aid Annually
  Senate Bill Would Give Taiwan $3 Billion In US Military Aid Annually

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced a piece of legislation on Tuesday that would authorize the Pentagon to give Taiwan $3 billion in military aid each year from 2023 through 2027.

  The Arm Taiwan Act of 2021 would supply Taiwan with weapons and training “to accelerate Taiwan’s deployment of asymmetric defense capabilities required to deter or, if necessary, defeat an invasion by the People’s Republic of China.”

  

  The $3 billion would be conditional on Taiwan investing a matching amount of funds, boosting its military budget, and implementing “defense reforms.” Despite all the hype around the idea of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the island’s military budget is a fraction of Washington’s.

  For 2022, Taiwan unveiled a military budget worth $16.8 billion, or 2.1 percent of the island’s GDP, compared with the 3.5 percent GDP the US spends on its military each year. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has set a goal of eventually increasing the military budget to 3 percent of the GDP.

  Even if Taiwan eventually spends 3 percent of its GDP on its military, the aid Hawley proposed would still be a sizeable chunk of Taipei’s overall budget. “We should do everything in our power to help Taiwan urgently strengthen its defenses,” Hawley said in a statement on the bill.

  The US hasn’t had a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan since 1979, when Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei to recognize Beijing. But arms sales to the island continued through the decades and have increased in recent years.

  Hawley’s legislation is just the latest from China hawks looking to put more support behind Taiwan. Republicans in the House and Senate have introduced the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, which would give the president war powers to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, and some Democrats are in favor of the idea despite the clear risk of nuclear war.

  * * *

  Additionally, some brief commentary from Rabobank:

  In the background, US Senator Hawley just introduced the ‘Arm Taiwan Act’, to pledge $3bn a year for asymmetric defense capabilities on the proviso that Taiwan matches that spending in kind. It may well not pass Congress, but it shows how US-China tensions continue to escalate. Likewise, as Nikkei Asia reported it yesterday: 

  U.S. GENERAL ANALYSIS | TAIWAN OK FOR 6-24 MONTHS

  China is unlikely to try to seize Taiwan in the next couple of years, even as its military develops capabilities that would enable forcibly retaking the self-ruled island, he said.https://t.co/2Hz4LEshMU

  — Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) November 3, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “US GENERAL ANALYSIS – TAIWAN OK FOR 6-24 MONTHS”, reassuringly adding, “China is unlikely to try to seize Taiwan in the next couple of years, even as its military develops capabilities that would enable forcibly retaking the self-ruled island.” Normal times for markets, clearly. At least for six months anyway.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 20:05

• La Nina Sparks "Cold Wave" Across China As CCP Tells Households To Stockpile Food 
  La Nina Sparks “Cold Wave” Across China As CCP Tells Households To Stockpile Food 

  China Meteorological Administration (CMA) warned Thursday of a cold blast to sweep across the country from northwestern to southeastern China due to a La Nina weather event. 

  Xue Jianjun, deputy director of CMA, said: “The cold air will bring a plunge in temperature nationwide compared with mid-October. The cold wave came from west Siberia which was then enhanced by cold air from the North Pole.” 

  “Heavy snow or rain will take over the Northeast and North China and the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, and farmers there should store corns outdoors ahead of the precipitation,” Jianjun said.

  CMA warned last month that a La Nina weather pattern would bring colder weather to the country. The timing of the cooler air is problematic amid an energy crisis that has resulted in nationwide power rationings. 

  Beijing understood ahead of time La Nina would bring colder weather. It ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure coal supplies for this winter at all costs in September. 

  State-run news outlet Xinhua News Agency said, “the possibility of phased extreme and strong cooling events is high.” 

  Bloomberg’s mean temperature forecast for China shows a deep dive in temps this week. Temps will remain well under a 30-year average through mid-December. 

  

  For some context, a 2008 La Nina event unleashed a devastating blow of snow and freezing weather that caused deaths and damage to crops, affecting 20 provinces. 

  So it now makes sense why the Ministry of Commerce told households Monday to stock up on food in case of emergencies, mainly because it expects food shortages. 

  China could be in for a world of trouble as colder weather will continue to strain energy and food supplies, opening up the chance for a winter of discontent among its citizens. 

  On the bright side, La Nina could be good news for Beijing to host the Winter Olympics in February.  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 19:45

• Depleted US Oil Inventories Leave Market Vulnerable To Shocks
  Depleted US Oil Inventories Leave Market Vulnerable To Shocks

  By John Kemp, Reuters energy analyst and columnist

  U.S. petroleum consumption has returned to pre-pandemic levels as businesses have reopened and internal road and air travel has resumed, but production and refining are lagging behind, which has depleted stocks. 

  

  Last week, the total volume of petroleum products supplied to the domestic market averaged 20 million barrels per day, essentially the same as the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average for 2015-2019.

  Of the major fuels, volumes of gasoline and distillate supplied are running at or marginally above pre-pandemic rates, while jet fuel is still somewhat below, reflecting continued problems in the aviation industry. But the volume of crude processed by refineries has been running roughly 5% below pre-pandemic rates, putting downward pressure on inventories of refined fuels.

  By the end of last week, gasoline stocks were 5 million barrels below their pre-pandemic seasonal average while distillate stocks were 6 million barrels below (“Weekly petroleum status report”, EIA, Nov. 3).

  

  Domestic crude production also remains well below pre-pandemic levels, which has resulted in an even stronger drawdown in crude inventories.

  Commercial crude inventories ended last week 18 million barrels (4%) below the pre-pandemic average with the most severe shortage concentrated at Cushing, where stocks were down 25 million barrels (48%).

  

  The acute shortage at Cushing, which is the delivery point for the NYMEX crude futures contract, helped push nearby futures prices into their second-steepest backwardation in the last decade.

  

  More broadly, total stocks of crude and products outside the strategic petroleum reserve had fallen to their lowest level since 2014 (https://tmsnrt.rs/3whzjLX).

  

  But there are some tentative signs the supply situation is stabilizing: deficits in both crude and products inventories to the pre-pandemic five-year average have narrowed slightly since late September.

  Likely in response, WTI futures prices for deliveries in December 2021 have been trending gently downwards since Oct. 26 and the six-month calendar spread has been softening since Oct. 29, though it is too early to determine whether this marks a turning point or simply a temporary pullback.

  

  The overall supply situation remains tight. Depleted inventories mean there are few shock absorbers to cope with any unexpected interruption in output or stronger than anticipated growth in consumption.

  

  At this point, supply problems or unexpected strength in demand could result in sharp price increases because there is no slack left to absorb them in the short term, unless OPEC+ can be persuaded to increase its output faster.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 19:25

• US Toymaker Warns Shortages Could Rapidly Transform Into Gluts
  US Toymaker Warns Shortages Could Rapidly Transform Into Gluts

  Some US companies have switched their production model from just-in-time (JIT) to just-in-case inventory (JICI), a more suitable model in today’s challenging supply chain environment. JICI allows companies to store more inventory and will help ensure future orders are filled. But a new problem is emerging with JICI, one where companies might order too much merchandise and spark gluts. 

  “Customers are just flinging crazy orders right now, so it’s hard to determine the real level of demand,” Ryan Gunnigle, CEO of Kids2, an Atlanta-based toy company, told Reuters. He said a top risk to his businesses this year is overordering toys for the holiday season, resulting in high inventories once the supply chain eases. 

  

  Companies, with manufacturing plants in China and elsewhere, have adjusted to JICI because they worry about running out of goods before stocks can be replenished. This creates the problem called the “bullwhip effect.” 

  Gunnigle said a decline in shipping container prices is one of the first signs of easing supply chain issues. We pointed out on Oct. 4 that container rates between the US and China hit a wall of resistance. 

  “We’re starting to see things flow a little bit easier,” he said, adding that “curve balls keep coming.” 

  One of the latest disruptions has been the energy crunch in China which Gunnigle said he recently learned one of his factories was halted due to power issues. He also noted the cost of plastics and other materials have gone through the roof. 

  Gunnigle noted his company doubled down in on China production with a new factory complex while other companies have exited the country and set up shop elsewhere. He said this has helped with lead times as opposed to competitors. 

   “I think our response time has been a lot better than our competitors because of that,” he said, noting that as early as May, Toys2 added up to two-and-half months to the time it expected to receive goods from China – on top of the normal average of 70 days.

  “We’ve really padded our lead times,” he said. “Not just in manufacturing – but in our estimates of the time it takes to get to the port, get things on boats, time to unload the boats.”

  Gunnigle said he is carefully observing the risk of oversupply: 

  “There’s a lot of inventory in the pipeline,” he said. “I just want to make sure we don’t get stuck with too much.”

  He warned that increased congestion continues to pile up at Southern California ports, and bottlenecks may worsen in China by the end of this year or early next, “because containers on the West Coast and East Coast are not being returned to China fast enough to replenish goods coming from China to support Q1 demand.”

  Ordering too much could be the next big headache for US companies if supply chain stress continues to ease. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 19:05

• All Of The Talking Heads Are Wrong About Why The Democrats Lost Virginia
  All Of The Talking Heads Are Wrong About Why The Democrats Lost Virginia

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  The corporate media seemed absolutely shocked by what happened on Tuesday night.  But I was not shocked one bit.  In fact, anyone with any common sense at all should have seen it coming.  Sadly, none of the talking heads on television that I saw were willing to admit why the Democrats really lost Virginia.  Some of the analysts said things that were true, but none of them addressed the main issue.  For example, CNN’s Van Jones admitted that Democrats “are coming across as annoying and offensive”, and that was certainly a truthful statement.  But that isn’t why Democrats lost.  Ultimately, the real reason why they lost in a state where they usually win is incredibly simple.

  

  Voters are moved by things that affect them personally more than anything else.  “It’s the economy, stupid” was a slogan that was invented by Clinton campaign strategist James Carville all the way back in 1992.  If people believe that voting for a particular political party is going to improve their ability to make a living, that political party is going to get a lot of votes.  Alternatively, if people believe that voting for a particular political party is going to hurt their ability to make a living, that political party is going to lose a lot of votes.

  Joe Biden made a catastrophic political error when he went after people’s jobs.  Countless Americans have already lost jobs due to various mandates, and approximately 80 million American workers will be covered by the big OSHA mandate that is about to go into effect.

  Perhaps Biden and his minions thought that they would just be hurting conservatives with these mandates, but that isn’t true at all.  Vast numbers of independents and Democrats are also refusing to comply with the mandates, and many of them are extremely angry.

  Let me give you an example.  In Kansas, the head of a local union district is very upset that close to half of the workers at his company could potentially lose their jobs…

  In Wichita, Kansas, nearly half of the roughly 10,000 employees at aircraft companies Textron Inc and Spirit AeroSystems remain unvaccinated against COVID-19, risking their jobs in defiance of a federal mandate, according to a union official.

  “We’re going to lose a lot of employees over this,” said Cornell Adams, head of the local Machinists union district. Many workers did not object to the vaccines as such, he said, but were staunchly opposed to what they see as government meddling in personal health decisions.

  Just reading those two paragraphs, it would be easy to come to the conclusion that Adams is probably a Republican.

  But he’s not.

  He is actually a Democrat, and he says that the Democrats will “never get another vote from me”…

  A life-long Democrat, Adams said he would no longer vote for the party.

  “They’ll never get another vote from me and I’m telling the workers here the same thing.”

  Did Biden and his minions actually think that countless independents and Democrats would forgive them for ruining their careers?

  If they would have just left people alone, they would still be in control in Virginia, but instead election night was a “clean sweep” for Republicans.

  And unless the Biden administration reverses course, the 2022 midterms will be a national bloodbath for the Democratic Party.

  When asked about the slaughter in Virginia, Biden mentioned a lot of factors, but he didn’t bring up the mandates at all…

  “People are upset and uncertain about a lot of things,” Biden said, “from COVID, to school, to jobs, to a whole range of things – and the cost of a gallon of gasoline. And so, if I’m able to pass and sign into law my ‘Build Back Better’ initiative, I’m in a position where you’re going to see a lot of those things ameliorated quickly and swiftly. So that has to be done.”

  Asked what Democrats need to do to respond to Republican attacks over critical race theory and other cultural issues, Biden said, “We should produce for the American people.”

  Some of the points he made are valid.

  Without a doubt, Americans are annoyed that the price of gasoline has become so painful…

  Gas prices have surged to a seven-year high of $3.40 a gallon nationally and are flirting with $4 in Nevada, Washington State and Oregon.

  Bank of America is now predicting that Brent crude oil, which drives gas prices, will zoom to $120 a barrel by June 2022. That’s 45% higher than current levels.

  Needless to say, the new global energy crisis which has suddenly erupted means that the price of gasoline is only going to go higher.

  And it is also true that Americans are frustrated with the worst supply chain crisis in our history.  The vast piles of cargo that are just sitting around in southern California have proven to be very tempting targets for thieves…

  “The more that the supply chain in general is backed up, the more cargo you’re going to have sitting. And that creates a bigger opportunity for thefts,” said Scott Cornell, a crime and theft specialist at insurance company Travelers, according to CBS MoneyWatch.

  Thieves made off with more than $5 million worth of goods as a result of so-called supply-chain theft in California during the third quarter of 2021, a surge of about 42 percent from a year ago, according to cargo theft recovery and prevention network CargoNet.

  The debacle in Afghanistan, the crisis on the southern border, and the rate at which the national debt is exploding are also factors that have weighed on Biden’s approval ratings.

  But Biden and his fellow Democrats could have survived all of those things if they had just left people’s jobs alone.

  In recent weeks, we have seen marches, demonstrations and protests all over the nation because of the mandates.

  Sadly, the talking heads on television just can’t admit that the mandates are backfiring on an absolutely massive scale.

  In the months ahead, countless more Americans will be forced out of their jobs thanks to the mandates, and this will set the stage for so many of the things that I have been warning about.

  If the Democrats want to avoid a complete wipeout during the 2022 midterm elections, they should literally beg Biden to end the mandates immediately.

  But they aren’t going to do that.

  They are literally committing political suicide, and they could potentially be creating fertile ground for a new third party to emerge by 2024.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 11/04/2021 – 18:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest