Today’s News 5th September 2023

• Who's Afraid Of An Alternative For Germany?
  Who’s Afraid Of An Alternative For Germany?

  Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

  The media describes them as far-right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant, fascist, etc. But what exactly are the positions of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party? Why is it steadily gaining in public opinion polls, and why is the German establishment so afraid of them?

  

  Various AfD party members have made comments in recent years that, depending on your point of view, are offensive or were blown out of proportion by the media. I’m not going to review all those here but instead wanted to look at what policies are contained in the AfD platform. The party’s “Manifesto for Germany” is a 93-page document that covers just about everything, but I want to focus here on areas that the media most frequently focus on  – immigration, the EU, and nationalism, as well as the set of positions that I would argue is the real reason for hyperventilating over AfD’s rise: foreign policy.

  On the EU:

  We oppose the idea to transform the European Union into a centralised federal state. We are in favour of returning the European Union to an economic union based on shared interests, and consisting of sovereign, but loosely connected nation states.…

  We believe in a sovereign Germany, which guarantees the freedom and security of its citizens, promotes economic welfare, and contributes to a peaceful and prosperous Europe.

  Should we not succeed with our ideas of a fundamental reform within the present framework of the European Union, we shall seek Germany‘s exit, or a democratic disso- lution of the EU, followed by the founding of a new Euro- pean economic union.…

  European politics are characterised by a creeping loss of democracy. The EU has become an undemocratic entity, whose policies are determined by bureaucrats who have no democratic accountability.

  On the Euro currency:

  We call for an end to the Euro experiment and its orderly dissolution. Should the German Federal Parliament not agree to this demand, Germany’s continued membership of the single currency area should be put to a popular vote.…

  The Euro actually jeopardises the peaceful co-existence of those European nations who are forced into sharing a common destiny by the Eurocracy. The introduction of this currency has led to resentment and confrontation amongst countries in Europe. Countries incurring economic difficulties within the single currency area are forced to restore their competitiveness by such measures as internal devaluation and associated budgetary constraints (austerity policies), rather than exploiting the tool of currency adjustments. Tensions amongst European nation states can inherently be ascribed to the Euro.

  AfD doesn’t just oppose the Euro for altruistic reasons. The party also objects to any form of financial equalization between the richer and poorer euro countries and claims Germany shoulders an unfair burden in propping up the weaker members of the eurozone.

  The political programme provides very little on labor policy, but AfD does want to provide financial incentives for Germans to reproduce. Here is the party on low birth rates and immigration:

  In order to fight the effects of this negative demographic development, political parties currently in government support mass immigration, mainly from Islamic states, without due consideration of the needs and qualifications of the German labour market. During the past few years it has become evident that Muslim immigrants to Germany,in particular, only attain below-average levels of education, training and employment. As the birth rate is more than 1.8 children amongst immigrants, which is much higher than that of Germans, it will hasten the ethnic-cultural changes in society.

  The attempt to counteract these developments by increasing the rate of immigration will inevitably lead to the estab lishment of more parallel communities, particularly inlarge cities, where integration with the native population is already a problem. The spread of conflict-laden and multiple minority communities erodes social solidarity, mutual trust, and public safety, which all are elements of a stable commu- nity. The average level of education will continue to drop.

  Greater political support for parental work, as well as education and family policies which are focused on the needs of families and young couples wanting to start a family, will once again lead to birth rates at a self-sustaining rate in the medium to long-term. We regard the closing of the gap between the actual number of children being born, and the desire of 90% of young Germans to have children, as a central element of our political platform.

  The document goes on for many pages about protecting the nation’s culture and how Islam is not a good fit for Germany. What exactly  is that culture?

  The AfD is committed to German as the predominant culture. This culture is derived from three sources: firstly, the religious traditions of Christianity; secondly, the scientific and humanistic heritage, whose ancient roots were renewed during the period of Renaissance and the Age of Enlightenment; and thirdly, Roman law, upon which our constitutional state is founded.

  Islam does not belong to Germany. Its expansion and the ever-increasing number of Muslims in the country are viewed by the AfD as a danger to our state, our society, and our values. An Islam which neither respects nor refrains from being in conflict with our legal system, or that even lays claim to power as the only true religion, is incompatible with our legal system and our culture. Many Muslims live as law-abiding and well-integrated citizens amongst us, and are accepted and valued members of our society. However, the AfD demands that an end is put to the formation and increased segregation by parallel Islamic societies relying
  on courts with shari’a laws.

  Here is the AfD immigration policy in a nutshell:

  Current German and European asylum and refugee policies cannot be continued as in the past. The ill-fitting term “refugee” used for all the people who enter Germany irregularly with the aim to stay here forever, is characteristic of this misguided policy. It is necessary to make a distinction between political refugees and people fleeing from war on the one hand, and irregular migrants on the other. It is the AfD’s view that true refugees should be granted shelter as long as there is war in the countries of origin. Irregular migrants, who are not persecuted, have no right to claim protection, contrary to refugees. Once the reasons for fleeing, such as an end to wars, or political and religious persecution, no longer applies, shall residence permits of refugees be terminated. These refugees need to leave Germany. Germany and its EU partner countries should provide incentives for those who have to leave. It is in the interest of domestic and foreign peace if refugees return to their home countries and contribute to the political, economic and social reconstruction of these countries.

  We advocate moderate legal immigration based on qualitative criteria where there is irrefutable demand, which can neither be satisfied from domestic resources, nor by EU immigration. The interests of Germany as a social, economic and cultural nation are paramount.

  On militarization,  foreign policy and the US:

  Currently, the operational readiness of the German Armed Forces is severely compromised. Due to poor political decisions and mismanagement, our armed forces have been severely neglected for over three decades. The operational readiness has to be fully restored so that the armed forces will be able to perform all their responsibilities. This is an essential prerequisite for the acceptance of Germany as an equal partner by NATO, the EU and the international community.

  Membership of NATO corresponds to Germany‘s interests with regard to foreign and security policy, as long as NATO’s role remains that of a defensive alliance. The AfD believes that predictability in meeting commitments towards NATO allies is an important goal of German foreign and security policy, so that Germany can develop more political weight to shape policies, and gain influence. We advocate that any engagement of NATO must be aligned to German interests, and has to correspond to a clearly defined strategy.

  Wherever German Armed Forces, as part of NATO operations, are involved beyond the borders of its Alliance partners’ territory, shall, in principle, only be carried out under a UN mandate, and only if German security interests are taken into account.

  On Germany’s occupation by allied troops (i.e., the US):

  …70 years after the end of World War II, and 25 years after the end of a divided Europe, the renegotiation of the status of Allied troops in Germany should be put up for discussion. The status of Allied troops needs to be adapted to Germany’s regained sovereignty. The AfD is committed to the withdrawal of all Allied troops stationed on German soil, and in particular of their nuclear weapons.

  And on Russia:

  The relationship with Russia is of prime importance, because European security cannot be attained without Russia’s involvement. Therefore, we strive for a peaceful solution of conflicts in Europe, whilst respecting the interests of all parties.

  Why Is AfD Surging in Popularity?

  AfD is a relatively new party – it was founded in 2013. It first began to gain a foothold among disenchanted voters in East Germany during the refugee crisis in 2017, but with the onset of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Germany, their support has been growing and spreading. What originally made AfD so attractive in East Germany?

  According to Manès Weisskircher who researches social movements, political parties, democracy, and the far right at the Institute of Political Science, TU Dresden, AfD’s support in the East can be primarily traced to three factors:

  1. The neoliberal ‘great transformation,’ which has massively changed the eastern German economy and continues to lead to emigration and anxiety over personal economic prospects.

  2. An ongoing sense of marginalization among East Germans who feel they have never been fully integrated since reunification and resent liberal immigration policies in this context.

  3. Deep dissatisfaction with the functioning of the political system and doubt in political participation.

  Recent polling contains interesting findings with regards to the AfD. It shows that 44 percent of Germans supporting the party do not have far-right views, but they are more concerned with inflation (90 percent) and immigration (87 percent) than the general public (78 and 56 percent, respectively). A whopping 78 percent of those who said they would vote for AfD said they would do so to show they were unhappy with current policies.

  The rise of the AfD is rooted in the crisis of German neoliberalism, and the current war in Ukraine that accompanies it. The idea that the West would cause Russia to collapse, divide it into pieces and plunder its natural resources has spectacularly backfired.

  The German economy is instead the one in a freefall. In response, Berlin continues to liberalize immigration laws to attract more foreigners with the hope it will help the economy – this despite the fact that half of German citizens would like the country to take in fewer refugees than it currently does.

  A record high of 71 percent of the German public are not satisfied with the work of the federal government, according to a recent Deutschlandtrend survey. The current government is unresponsive to the concerns of working class voters. Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock famously summed up that reality last year:

  HANKE’S BELIEVE IT OR NOT: Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said she will put Ukraine first “no matter what my German voters think.” It’s very rare to hear a local politician publicly say she (or he) will ignore the WILL of their VOTERS.https://t.co/hFQrNwSJEW

  — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) October 25, 2022

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  The AfD is the only party in Germany making the connection between Berlin’s bellicose policy towards Moscow (and increasingly Beijing as well) and the worsening economic conditions for Germans.

  The Greens, rather than examine their own failings, are blaming voters for not fully understanding their policies. They’ve launched a “charm” offensive to better explain their wisdom while simultaneously escalating their charges against the AfD. Tobias Riegel writes at NachDenkSeiten [machine translation]:

  The [Green] chairman of the Europe Committee in the Bundestag, [Anton] Hofreiter, is currently warning against the AfD and has accused it of treason. He also did not rule out a ban on the party, as reported by the media . Two sentences by Hofreiter are particularly striking. On the one hand:

  “You have to be aware of the incredible danger that the AfD poses to democracy and the rule of law, as well as to the prosperity of many people; that has not yet arrived in all parts of society.”

  And on the other hand:

  “There is also insufficient awareness of the danger that the AfD poses to our country’s external security in this difficult situation with increasingly aggressive dictatorships such as Russia and China. The AfD is predominantly a group of traitors who act not in the interests of our country but in the interests of opposing powers.”

  If you swap “AfD” for “Greens” and if you swap “Russia” for “USA”, you could almost think Hofreiter is talking about himself and his leading party friends in these quotes.

  Meanwhile, the country’s Left Party, which is considered a direct descendant of the Socialist Unity Party that ruled East Germany until reunification, has completely collapsed after abandoning nearly all of its platform in an attempt to appear “ready to govern.” Much like the bourgeoisie Greens, the Left increasingly stands for neoliberal, pro-war and anti-Russia policies. Former Left voters have increasingly switched to the AfD in response.

  As long as the AfD is the only party in Germany willing to connect the dots between US control over German foreign policy and the increasing toll that is taking on the citizens’ standard of living, it will likely continue to attract voters.

  Why Is There Such an Outcry Over AfD?

  For years now, the German establishment has been throwing the kitchen sink at the AfD. There are of course allegations of Russia connections. They hate the disabled. They are extremist and must be monitored.  A former AfD representative was also  allegedly part of a coup plan involving 25 geriatrics that were inspired by QAnon and were somehow going to take over the government. Stories on the coup plot almost always focus on the AfD link and warnings that they are getting “more extreme.”

  Most of these scare stories about the AfD originate from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), which last year won the right to surveil AfD members after judges allowed the party to be branded a “suspicious entity.”

  German authorities are now able to monitor and intercept mail correspondence, phone calls and online conversations. It can also limit members’ ability to get employment in the public sector and make it more difficult to obtain licenses for weapons.

  (In the past, the BfV investigated members of the Left Party suspecting them of intending to replace the existing economic, political and social order with a socialist or communist system.)

  Much of this seems ripped straight out of the US playbook for dealing with Trump and unruly voters in general: ignore the voters, blame the voters, and then release spooks.

  The media hysteria over the AfD is reminiscent over the constant ringing of alarm bells over the election of the Italian Prime Minister and her Brothers of Italy party last year. Fascism was on the march, they declared. Well, Meloni has turned out to be a pretty run-of-the-mill corporate stooge who toes the line on the EU and NATO. Even her anti-immigrant rhetoric gave way to ensuring the arrival of a certain number in order to maintain the supply of cheap labor for Italian businesses. And the freak out over Meloni died down as soon as she proved her devotion to the EU and NATO.

  Let’s not pretend that any of the concern over the AfD is due to its proposed policies regarding German culture and immigrants. It is because the party is advocating for positions that are a direct threat to Brussels and Washington. If it went forward with efforts to get Germany off the euro or boot US troops out of the country, it would collapse the whole EU-NATO system.

  Despite the media and intelligence agency pressure, the AfD only seems emboldened. Beyond the party platform, AfD members have since gone further in their criticisms of the US.

  Here’s Member of the European Parliament Maximilian Krah:

  “It is certain that the German government was informed of the sabotage beforehand by the Americans. This is the only explanation for Scholz’s awkward silence. With the addition of a woke and irresponsible warmonger like [Foreign Minister Annalena] Baerbock, who declares that Germany is at war with Russia, nothing surprises me.

  The problem is that this is tearing the German economy to pieces and significantly impoverishes Germany. Moreover, the billions spent by Germany on this gas project, which ensured us cheap energy, are lost, but the coalition which governs Germany does not care. Officially, Scholz knows nothing. Apparently, we live in a democracy.”

  The AfD is also increasingly critical of Berlin’s stance towards China, which it believes is being driven by US interests and Germany’s detriment. From  Deutsche Welle:

  The AfD has positioned itself in opposition to the German government’s critical policy toward China. Berlin’s China Strategy, published in mid-July, for example, was denounced by Bystron, the AfD’s foreign policy spokesperson, as the “attempt to implement green-woke ideology and US geopolitical interests under the guise of a strategy for German foreign policy.”

  The description of China in the strategy as a rival — as well as a partner and competitor — was for Bystron “the consequence of the US’ confrontational course toward China. This confrontation and division are not in the interests of Germany as an export nation,” he said.

  For political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder from the University of Kassel, the AfD’s foreign policy positions demonstrate an attempt to set itself apart from the other German political parties. Geopolitically, said Schroeder, the AfD sees the traditional Western ties with the United States, which it regards as hegemonic, as having past their use-by date.

  “The AfD considers Washington to be more part of the problem than part of the solution to the challenges facing Germany,” he told DW. “That’s because the AfD considers the US an imperial actor whose vested interests cannot be reconciled with those of Germany.”

  The AfD is essentially calling for a return to the Angela Merkel foreign policy based on Wandel durch Handel (“transformation through trade”). It relied on cheap Russian gas imports and exports to its largest trading partner, China.

  There is now a central disconnect to Germany’s foreign policy and domestic policy. As Berlin follows the wishes of the US, lives for the citizens of Germany will  continue to worsen. How can Germany reconcile this?

  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende was essentially a promise to the US that Germany will from now on take up its sword in defense of US hegemony and morally superior purposes (such as Baerbock’s feminist foreign policy that aligns neatly with Washington’s enemy list) against Russia, China, Iran, and whoever else threatens the “rules-based order.”

  The AfD, whether you agree or disagree with its other positions, is for now the sole German party standing against such an arrangement.

  The German state’s harassment of the Left Party appears to have worked in getting it to abandon its previously “radical” goals of empowering workers, dissolving NATO and getting US troops out of Germany. We’ll have to wait and see what path the AfD takes.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 09/05/2023 – 02:00

• "Unprecedented Levels" Of Theft In Nation's Capital Forces Supermarket Chain To Remove Name-Brand Items From Shelves
  “Unprecedented Levels” Of Theft In Nation’s Capital Forces Supermarket Chain To Remove Name-Brand Items From Shelves

  Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, Foot Locker, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Dollar Tree, to name a few, have all raised concerns about out-of-control thefts in their stores nationwide. The latest is supermarket chain Giant Food, which warned about “unprecedented levels” of “shrink” – the loss of inventory due to circumstances such as retail theft – at one of its stores in Washington, DC. 

  NBC Washington said the Giant Food, located at 1535 Alabama Ave SE, has already warned if rampant shoplifting continues, the supermarket will have to close its doors. 

  

  The Giant on Alabama Avenue SE is the only full-service supermarket in the area, and if it closes, it will create a food desert in Southeast DC. Instead of closing, it seems the grocery chain has come up with a solution:

  In a statement, Giant said it plans to remove national brand health and beauty care items and replace them with private label brands where possible. The new policy aims to reduce “unprecedented levels” of theft and make the store safer for shoppers and employees. 

  “None of the tactics we deploy is the ultimate solution to the problem we face, but we continue to invest in efforts that will improve safety for our associates and customers and reduce theft,” part of the statement read. –NBC Washington

  Replacing brand name items, such as Tide, Colgate, or Advil, with only private label products is a last-ditch effort to prevent the store from closing. 

  DC’s failed progressive social justice reform policies have only emboldened criminals, as AP News warned in July: “Violent crime is rising sharply, fueled by more homicides and carjackings.” 

  Major corporations who funded the ‘defund the police’ movement during the Covid era are getting what they deserve: A surge in thefts as soft on crime Democrats in control of many of the nation’s cities have only sparked a theft and violent crime wave. 

  Retailers sounded the alarm on the theft wave this past earnings season. The number of times CEOs mentioned “shrink” on earnings calls soared to a record high.  

  

  A new report last week drew a Mexican cartel connection in America’s retail theft epidemic that cost companies like Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, Home Depot, and Foot Locker, among others, tens of billions of dollars last year. Yet another failed Democrat policy to leave borders open. 

   Open borders are not so great after all… It’s time to reinforce law and order in the nation or face out-of-control theft waves now making it to suburbia. 

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 23:45

• Kishida's Unpopularity Increases Risk Of BOJ Shift And Yen Intervention
  Kishida’s Unpopularity Increases Risk Of BOJ Shift And Yen Intervention

  By Masaki Kondo, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist.

  Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s falling popularity adds to the risk that the Bank of Japan may surprise investors again with a policy shift that will make voters happier.

  Political distress has emerged as a potential leading indicator for action in monetary and currency affairs since late 2022
  When Japan intervened to prop up the yen in October, it wasn’t just the currency that was falling — Kishida’s administration’s approval rating was also plumbing new lows.

  The blowback against the Japanese Lira begins.

  Let’s see how long Kishida allows the BOJ to cremate the JPY once Japan’s plummeting standard of living and his approval rating starts correlating to the yen pic.twitter.com/qcKAgvXukz

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 29, 2023

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  The government was drawing fire in opinion polls again in December, when the central bank unexpectedly raised the ceiling for yield-curve control. And when the BOJ caught investors off guard once more in July with a further adjustment to YCC, the PM’s popularity was yet again on the slide.

  This isn’t to deny that underlying economic and market pressures are the fundamental drivers of monetary and currency policy. Nobody is suggesting that the government directs the central bank, which has its independence enshrined in law.

  Yet there is a clear line that connects the weak yen to inflation, and inflation to unhappy voters. When it comes to the timing of actions that can take some of the sting out of inflation, recent history indicates opinion polls are at least worth watching.

  

  It may also pay to keep an eye on the periodic meetings between Kishida and the BOJ governor. Many traders can probably recount that the then-Governor Haruhiko Kuroda raised concern over the yen when he met the prime minister about a month before raising the YCC ceiling in December.

  Kazuo Ueda, who was chosen by Kishida to succeed Kuroda earlier this year, has also shown himself to be highly attuned to the plight of the yen. Ueda surprised BOJ watchers in July when he acknowledged that foreign-exchange volatility had been a factor in raising the YCC cap again.

  The most recent public record of a meeting between the pair is Aug. 22, when they discussed financial conditions ahead of the gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

  That said, Kishida’s problems with voters go way beyond areas the BOJ can influence, even if he could bend the central bank to his will. The sources of dissatisfaction with the government range from a national ID card, to the country’s low birth rate, to the handling of waste water from the Fukushima nuclear plant.

  But maybe all these caveats are immaterial. The link between the yen and inflation, and what this means to the government and the BOJ, is clear to see. Keeping tabs on opinion polls may be prudent until someone can show that they don’t matter.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 23:00

• A Manufactured Hate
  A Manufactured Hate

  Authored by Paul Gottfried via American Greatness,

  Thomas Klingenstein recently delivered a speech at the Claremont Institute that notes what should be obvious to most Americans. 

  According to Klingenstein, racism in the US is now a “manufactured” problem,” and this tawdry invention allows the Democrats and the Left to increase their power by addressing a problem that they themselves have stirred up. Although Klingenstein does not deny that isolated cases of discrimination against blacks may occur, he regards these situations as sporadic but also gleefully played up by Democratic politicians and their media handservants.

  

  When Joe Biden complains that white Americans are practicing “systemic racism” against blacks and that the US is being convulsed by white supremacist terrorists, he is clearly lying. But he and his handlers are acting as they do for a reason, which is not that they believe what they’re saying. They know that what they are loudly deploring will help shore up their party’s base consisting of the perpetually aggrieved. Black politicians who loyally serve the Democratic Party, like Sheila Jackson Lee, Cori Bush, Hakeem Jeffries, and Maxine Waters tell us breathlessly that white America is racist. Hearing this accusation may make their voters feel better about their social failures and even result in getting further government social programs targeted at inner cities.

  Far more astonishingly, the never-ending invectives against “racist” white Americans doesn’t seem to upset most white voters. White Democrats in particular don’t mind being stigmatized as racists. Most white Americans may object to high gas prices and rising housing costs, but being attacked as racists for most of them (and here we have to exclude most Trump voters) may be like rain off a duck’s back.  According to a Harris Poll taken last year, 53% of white Americans believe for sure their race is systemically racist.

  For me, this defamation of whites is a shameless lie. Not only are white Americans overwhelmingly not racist bigots, but they lick the feet of those who are making false charges against them. The question is why so many white Americans seem content in their role as penitent “systemic racists.” They show no displeasure when TV stations feature predominantly black actors, even in advertisements, sometimes to the near exclusion of whites, and when more and more of their “entertainment” focuses on black victimhood. Although most American whites do not yet obsess over their inherited racist sins, some of them fund blatantly antiwhite organizations like BLM and Antifa. Further, some particularly troubled whites even join those antiwhite riots sponsored by richer adherents of their bizarre creed.

  An obvious reason why some whites behave so masochistically or weirdly is that they are conforming to what they think is expected of them. Those who run corporations, educational institutions, the media, wokeified churches and the deep state all push antiwhite racism; and this poisonous product determines social behavior, and even pseudo-religious conviction. Although this toxin may do incalculable damage to race relations, education, and even our entertainment, it does not usually affect the lives of those who mouth the required gibberish, at least not too directly.

  Parents may grouse that their offspring are kept out of a prestigious school because of a racial quota. But they try not to make too much noise lest they hurt themselves socially or professionally. In any case their kids have access to other overpriced citadels of “higher education” if a particular university keeps them out to fill a quota. Obviously white house owners don’t want BLM or other violent “social justice” organizations rioting in their neighborhood. But as long as the residents keep garish BLM signs on their front lawns, they should be ok. The signs function in a way similar to the garlic sack or crucifix that was supposed to ward off vampires, according to Romanian legend.

  Another reason that antiwhite racism is such a hot item is that it comes fused with other leftist targets.

  Opponents of manufactured white racism are usually enemies of Christianity, “patriarchy,” and homophobia. Leftist bugaboos come in clusters. If you buy into one of the items, you are expected to take home the rest. I often receive letters from correspondents who insist that woke leftists really hate one of the stated targets on their list of villains but not really the other ones. It seems to me that the Left has made war on all their targets simultaneously.  

  And if you want to hang with the powerful and influential, you’re going to have to pay lip service to all their madness. Otherwise, you might be mistaken for a Trumpite. Lately I’ve been impressed by how my former colleagues and younger relatives who belong to our state church belabor the now-ritualized observation: “Of course there’s systematic racism in this country.”

  Although their message sounds like lunacy, I’m sure there are others with more influence than I have who will be pleased with this credal recitation.

  The larger question is how such a loathsome, masochistic state religion got established in the first place.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 22:30

• Beijing Is Ceding The Economic Race As Growth Slows
  Beijing Is Ceding The Economic Race As Growth Slows

  By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

  Forecasts for China’s 2023 and 2024 economic growth have been slashed on Wall Street over the past few weeks. The world’s second-largest economy now risks missing Beijing’s own growth target for a second straight year and could expand at a sub-5% pace for three years in a row — something unheard of since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976.

  Stalling growth will surely have longer-term geopolitical implications. Odds are stacked against President Xi, who pledged last year to make China a “medium-developed country” by 2035. That’s also the time when China could dethrone the US to become the world’s No. 1 economy, if the stars are aligned. Such a prospect, however, looks increasingly out of reach given the current trajectories.

  China’s strong growth and subsequent currency appreciation meant the country’s output, measured in dollars, has grown much faster than the US for over two decades. The nation’s GDP was around $1.2 trillion at the turn of the century, less than one-eighth of the US. Its share of US GDP climbed toward 70% in 2020 and topped 72% in 2021. That was comparable with Japan, whose dollar-denominated output reached almost 73% of US levels in 1995, before embarking on a downtrend ever since.

  

  Last year was a watershed moment as China’s relative economic might versus the US declined after the second quarter, when a two-month lockdown of Shanghai wreaked havoc on sentiment and dented growth momentum. The nation’s GDP rose $1.3 trillion in 2022, compared with a $2.1 trillion gain in the US, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the first half of 2023, Chinese GDP in dollar terms shrank — as the yuan lost almost 5% versus the greenback — while the US economy powered on, “opening a bigger gap in the global economic race” as my colleague Gerard DiPippo wrote. Chinese output as a share of the US now stands near 68%, on course for a second straight year of decline.

  

  At the October party congress, President Xi set the goal for China to become a “medium-developed country” by 2035, which implies doubling the size of its economy and per-capita GDP from 2020 levels, and requires an average annual growth rate of around 4.7%. The latest Bloomberg survey of economists saw Chinese output expanding 5.1% this year, before moderating to 4.5% in 2024 and 2025. Given last year’s 3% expansion, the four-year average between 2022 and 2025 will amount to less than 4.3%. That number is sure to fall if policymakers refrain from major stimulus and growth momentum keeps deteriorating.

  

  Two years ago, my colleagues Eric Zhu and Tom Orlik at Bloomberg Economics analyzed several scenarios and concluded that China will need 5%-plus growth as well as least a steady pace of reforms, and it also will need to avoid a full decoupling in order to economically dethrone the US in the next decade. Events since then have made their base case look optimistic, and the downside scenario more akin to reality. Beijing may choose to muddle through its present growth impasse and refrain from any “big bang” measures at the expense of never ascending to the pinnacle of the global economic competition.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 21:30

• "Intensity Models Show Big Development Late Week": All Eyes On The Atlantic As Hurricane Season Nears Peak 
  “Intensity Models Show Big Development Late Week”: All Eyes On The Atlantic As Hurricane Season Nears Peak 

  Gert and Katia remain active systems churning in the Atlantic, but a new tropical wave off Africa caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center. 

  As of Monday morning, Invest 95-L was several hundred miles southwest of Africa’s Cabo Verde Islands, with a 90% probability of tropical formation in the next seven days and 70% in the next two days. 

  

  “Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression around midweek,” NHC wrote in an early Monday morning update. 

  NHC continued, “Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.” 

  Meteorologist Eric Burris from WELSH, a local media outlet in Daytona Beach, Florida, posted on X that the tropical wave’s new models show a potential track toward the Northeast Caribbean. 

  Brand new model data coming in for Invest #95L. This system looks to get strong by late week, but will it have the chance to re-curve and stay out to sea?

  That’s the hope, and just about all global models show it. Let’s just keep eyes on em for consistency to build confidence pic.twitter.com/5HJyB6b9Ic

  — Eric Burris (@EricBurrisWESH) September 4, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Burris posted an intensity model that suggests the storm could reach Category 1 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the end of the week. 

  Intensity models are really starting to show big development late week…

  Here’s the newest data… pic.twitter.com/p6kQBbzBD9

  — Eric Burris (@EricBurrisWESH) September 4, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The hurricane season is nearing the peak. 

  

  The meteorologist said even though the models point to the Caribbean islands and perhaps the US East Coast. Some models show it could turn north and stay out to sea. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 21:00

• Disease-X Is A High-Return Business Strategy
  Disease-X Is A High-Return Business Strategy

  Authored by David Bell via The Brownstone Institute,

  Fearistan, having done very well economically and provided its citizens a long lifespan, noticed that people were still occasionally dying in road accidents. Fearistanis were wealthy and really liked the freedom to travel. While road deaths were uncommon, any unnecessary death surely seemed worth avoiding.

  The road-building industry, working closely with government, came up with the idea of building 6-lane highways between cities. Soon the big cities were all connected, and experts from the University of Transport proved that the new highways had a 7 percent lower accident rate than normal roads. University modelers predicted that if 6-lane highways were built between every town in Fearistan, they would save thousands of lives. Experts predicted that they would even save more lives than were actually dying on the existing roads.

  The country followed the experts (they were, after all, renowned for building roads) and invested in 6-lane highways everywhere. While the country exhausted itself and most people could not afford to drive their cars anymore, they were rightly grateful that the road-builders were saving them. The near empty roads were now almost completely accident-free, proving the experts right.

  Eventually, the road-building industry faced a dilemma; they were running out of towns to which roads could be built. This was not what their investors needed. Then the road regulator and the road-builders met and identified an urgent need to build roads to towns that did not yet exist. Fearistan had vast areas of empty desert that were completely open to town-building. When such towns were eventually built, experts predicted an inevitable and devastating tsunami of road accidents. This would return Fearistan to the total carnage from which they had so narrowly escaped years before. The new Town-X roads (as they termed them) were brilliant examples of high-tech road construction. And everyone could see how important this work was, to keep the public safe. 

  In public health, we follow a similarly important business model. We call it ‘Disease-X.’

  

  Understanding pandemic risk from infectious disease

  Humans suffered for millennia from pandemics or ‘plagues.’ These killed up to a third of some populations. While causes in some cases remain unclear, such as the Athenian plague of 430 BC, the major plagues since Medieval times were mostly bacterial; particularly bubonic plague, cholera, and typhus. 

  Bacterial pandemics ceased in late 19th century Europe with improved sanitation, and elsewhere after the addition of antibiotics. Most deaths from the pre-antibiotic Spanish flu outbreak in the early 20th century are also thought to be untreated secondary bacterial pneumonia. Cholera remains an intermittent marker of extreme poverty and social disruption, whilst most deaths from malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS are associated with poverty, which restricts access to effective treatment.

  When indigenous populations long separated from the bulk of humanity encountered carriers of smallpox and measles, the effects were also devastating. Having no inherited immunity, whole populations were decimated, particularly in the Americas, Pacific Islands, and Australia. 

  Now the world is connected, and such mass death events don’t occur. Connectedness can be a strong defense against pandemics, contrary to what Disease X proponents claim, through its role in supporting early-age immunity and frequent boosting.

  These realities reflect orthodox public health but are poorly compatible with current business models. They are, therefore, increasingly ignored.

  A century of safety

  The past hundred years have seen two significant natural influenza pandemic events (in 1957-8 and 1968-9) and one major coronavirus outbreak (Covid-19) that appears to have arisen from gain-of-function research in a lab. The influenza outbreaks each killed less than currently die annually from tuberculosis, while the coronavirus outbreak was associated with mortality at average age above 75 years, with roughly 1.5 people per thousand dying globally.

  While the media fusses about other outbreaks, they have actually been relatively small events. SARS-1 in 2003 killed about 800 people worldwide, or less than half the number of children that die every single day from malaria. MERS killed about 850 people, and the West African Ebola outbreak killed about 11,300. Context here is important; tuberculosis kills over 1.5 million people every year while malaria kills over half a million children, and over 600,000 people die of cancer each year in the United States alone. SARS-1, MERS and Ebola may gain more media coverage than tuberculosis, but this is unrelated to actual risk.

  Why are we living longer?

  The reason behind increasing human lifespans is frequently forgotten, or ignored. As medical students were once taught, advancements came primarily through improved sanitation, better living conditions, better nutrition, and antibiotics; the same changes responsible for the reduction in pandemics. Vaccines came after most improvement had already occurred (with a few exceptions such as smallpox).

  While vaccines do remain an important addition, they are also of particular importance to pharmaceutical companies. They can be mandated, and together with the constant birth of children this provides a continuing, predictable, and profitable market. This is not an anti-vaccine statement. It is just a statement of fact. Facts are what health policy should be based on.

  So, we can be confident that, barring an intentional or accidental release of a pathogen engineered by humans, it is highly unlikely that a Medieval-style outbreak will affect anyone currently living. While poverty will reduce life expectancy, it will remain relatively high in wealthier countries. However, we can also be very confident that those half-million young children will die of malaria next year and that 1.5 million people, many of them children and young adults, will die of tuberculosis. 

  Over 300,000 women in low-income countries will also die agonizing deaths from cervical cancer because they cannot access cheap screening. We know this, because it happens every year – it is what international public health, particularly the World Health Organization (WHO), was supposed to prioritize.

  The ability to monetize an illusion

  The Covid-19 response demonstrated how the sponsors of international public health institutions have found a way to monetize public health. This business model involves promoting abnormal responses to relatively normal viruses. It employs behavioral psychology and media campaigns to instill inappropriate fear into the public, then ‘locking them down’ – prison terminology before 2020. The public may then regain a degree of freedom (e.g., fly to visit a dying relative, or work) if they agree to take a vaccine, which in turn directly benefits the original sponsors of the scheme. The heavy public investment in Covid-19 mRNA vaccine development enabled pharmaceutical companies and their investors to reap unprecedented returns.

  The major public-private partnership for vaccine development for pandemics, CEPI (inaugurated at the World Economic Forum in 2017), states that “The threat of Disease-X infecting the human population, and spreading quickly around the world, is greater than ever before.” 

  Health practitioners are quite susceptible to this propaganda (they are only human). Many also seek income from investments and patents from technologies that may help lock others down or make vaccine production quicker and cheaper. Basing their salaries and careers on loyalty to this pandemic industry, they join in vilifying and scapegoating those who speak against it. Shielded by their sponsors’ ‘greater threat than ever before’ claims, they can blind themselves to the major causes of ill health and act as if only pandemic risk matters.

  Why not rely on existing threats?

  Despite current efforts with yet another variant, Covid-19 is losing its ability to scare. Sustained fear is necessary for politicians in penetrated governments (as Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum notes) to provide this support. This business paradigm requires a continuing target. 

  The overall aim is for the public to think that only a corporate authoritarian (fascist) nanny-state can save them from a continuing threat.

  Major natural outbreaks being rare, and lab escapes also infrequent, Disease-X fills this need. It provides the material for the media and politicians to work with between variant or monkeypox events.

  Where to from here?

  For the public, diversion of resources to fairyland diseases will increase mortality by diverting funding for real threats and productive areas of investment. Of course, if increasing lab leaks of engineered pathogens are expected from ongoing and future research, that would be different. But then this would have to be explained plainly and transparently, and prevention may be more effective than a very expensive cure.

  Disease-X is a business strategy, dependent on a series of fallacies, dressed up as an altruistic concern for human welfare. Embraced by powerful people, the world they move in accepts amoral practice in public health as a legitimate path to their version of success. 

  If our primary aim is to channel taxpayer funding to development of biotechnologies that the public can then be mandated to buy, to their own detriment but at great benefit to the developers, then Disease-X is the road forward. This market model ensures that a relative few can concentrate wealth gained from the many, at virtually no risk to themselves. The public must decide whether they want to keep their part of this highly abusive bargain.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 20:30

• The Next Auto Repossession Wave Could Involve Robots Doing The Work For Banks 
  The Next Auto Repossession Wave Could Involve Robots Doing The Work For Banks 

  As more consumers default on credit card and auto loan payments, financial strain intensifies as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hiking campaign stands at two-decade highs, potentially leading to a surge in vehicle repossessions. 

  A recent Moody’s report showed new credit card delinquencies hit 7.2% in the second quarter, up from 6.5% in the first quarter. As for new auto loan delinquencies, the rate topped 7.3%, compared with 6.9% in the first quarter. 

  Moody’s expects new credit card and auto loan delinquencies to continue “rising materially” through the rest of the year and top sometime in 2024 at 9% and 10%, compared with 7% pre-Covid. 

  “The increase in delinquencies and defaults is symptomatic of the tough decisions that these households are having to make right now — whether to pay their credit card bills, their rent or buy groceries,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told The Washington Post. 

  A weakening labor market and tapped-out consumers, some of whom have $1,000 monthly auto payments, are finding it difficult to pay not just shelter costs, put food on the table, but service their car payments. We’ve outlined to readers in the last three quarters, “Massive Wave” Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy and Negative Equity Surges: More Consumers Find Themselves In Underwater Auto Loans — and it’s only a matter of time before the repo wave begins. We noted in July that Repos From Auto Loans That Originated In 2020 And 2021 Are Skyrocketing. 

  “The Fed might look at this and say this is the whole purpose of raising rates, to make it more difficult” to make purchases, Zandi said, adding, “The bigger question is when the Fed will have succeeded in slowing down the broader economy, and how many consumers have to be impacted in a negative way.”

  Delinquency on auto loan payments is a sign that the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy might be working to quash inflation, which leaves the economy in a heightened period of macroeconomic uncertainty as low/mid-tier consumers appear to be financially cracking. 

  So, as per Moody’s report, auto loan delinquencies are set to rise even higher. In a world where robots are being integrated into every business model, we found one towing company in the UK using a robot to move illegally parked cars. 

  

  Although the video doesn’t show a repossession, a repo company can only imagine integrating robots into vehicle retrieval will provide much-needed relief to avoid unwanted confrontations with car owners. 

   

   

   

   

  View this post on Instagram

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

  A post shared by Business Blurb™ (@businessblurb)

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  It’s only a matter of time before repo companies adopt these robots. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 20:05

• SOCOM To Deploy Argus AI To Scour Social Media For Disinformation, Misinformation And Malinformation
  SOCOM To Deploy Argus AI To Scour Social Media For Disinformation, Misinformation And Malinformation

  Authored by Sundance via The Conservative Treehouse,

  Annnd… Here we go.  If you have not read the background {Go Deep}, you will not have the appropriate context to absorb the latest revelation about how the Dept of Defense will now conduct online monitoring operations, using enhanced AI to protect the U.S. internet from “disinformation” under the auspices of national security.

  

  Gee, who would have predicted that U.S. internet operations would suddenly have a totally new set of enhanced AI guardians at the gateways? 👀

  Read Carefully – Eyes Wide Open:

  The US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) has contracted New York-based Accrete AI to deploy software that detects “real time” disinformation threats on social media.

  The company’s Argus anomaly detection AI software analyzes social media data, accurately capturing “emerging narratives” and generating intelligence reports for military forces to speedily neutralize disinformation threats.

  “Synthetic media, including AI-generated viral narratives, deep fakes, and other harmful social media-based applications of AI, pose a serious threat to US national security and civil society,” Accrete founder and CEO Prashant Bhuyan said.

  “Social media is widely recognized as an unregulated environment where adversaries routinely exploit reasoning vulnerabilities and manipulate behavior through the intentional spread of disinformation.

  “USSOCOM is at the tip of the spear in recognizing the critical need to identify and analytically predict social media narratives at an embryonic stage before those narratives evolve and gain traction. Accrete is proud to support USSOCOM’s mission.”

  But wait… It gets worse!

  [PRIVATE SECTOR VERSION] – The company also revealed that it will launch an enterprise version of Argus Social for disinformation detection later this year.

  The AI software will provide protection for “urgent customer pain points” against AI-generated synthetic media, such as viral disinformation and deep fakes.

  Providing this protection requires AI that can automatically “learn” what is most important to an enterprise and predict the likely social media narratives that will emerge before they influence behavior. (read more)

  Now, take a deep breath…. Let me explain.

  The goal is the “PRIVATE SECTOR VERSION.”  USSOCOM is the mechanical funding mechanism for deployment, because the system itself is too costly for a private sector launch. The Defense Dept budget is used to contract an Artificial Intelligence system, the Argus anomaly detection AI, to monitor social media under the auspices of national security.

  Once the DoD funded system is created, the “Argus detection protocol” – the name given to the AI monitoring and control system, will then be made available to the public sector.  “Enterprise Argus” is then the commercial product, created by the DoD, which allows the U.S. based tech sectors to deploy.

  The DoD cannot independently contract for the launch of an operation against a U.S. internet network, because of constitutional limits via The Posse Comitatus Act, which limits the powers of the federal government in the use of federal military personnel to enforce domestic policies within the United States.  However, the DoD can fund the creation of the system under the auspices of national defense, and then allow the private sector to launch for the same intents and purposes.   See how that works? 

  RESOURCES:

  Using AI for Content Moderation

  Facebook / META / Tech joining with DHS

  Zoom will allow Content Scraping by AI 

  AI going into The Cloud

  U.S. Govt Going into The Cloud With AI

  Pentagon activates 175 Million IP’s 👀**ahem**

  Big Names to Attend Political AI Forum

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 19:40

• "The Way To Beat The End Boss": Chamath Palihapitiya Praises Tesla's Aggressive Price Cutting
  “The Way To Beat The End Boss”: Chamath Palihapitiya Praises Tesla’s Aggressive Price Cutting

  Canadian VC and self-labeled “SPAC Jesus” Chamath Palihapitiya was out over Labor Day weekend praising the speed and aggressiveness of Tesla’s price cuts, which we have been documenting at length since the beginning of 2023. 

  Praising Musk and Tesla, Palihapitiya tweeted out a chart of Tesla’s most recent price cuts, stating: “I was shocked when I saw this chart. The speed and aggressiveness with which $TSLA is cutting prices is the way to beat the End Boss. (Rapidly increasing price affordability) x (constantly improving hardware and software) = super maximized market demand.”

  “This is a lethal combination which we haven’t seen play out in any modern market before,” he added. 

  

  “Some companies cut prices, but most keep prices flat or increase them,” he added. “Some companies improve products quickly. But no one has actually given you more for less on such a big ticket purchase so frequently.”

  Tesla’s recent price cuts have been a topic of discussion since January because, so far, they have been effective in spurring demand and putting pressure on legacy automakers. Tesla continues to make aggressive cuts, as we wrote about just days ago. 

  Tesla cut prices on its Model S Plaid vehicle in China most recently, to 828,900 yuan from 1.03m yuan, a cut of about 19%. Bloomberg reported last week that Tesla was also cutting the price of its Model S to 698,900 yuan from 808,900 yuan, its Model X to 738,900 yuan from 898,900 yuan and its Model X Plaid to 838,900 yuan from 1.06m yuan.

  

  These cuts followed additional price cuts in China that took place only about two weeks ago. Recall we reported on August 16 that Tesla’s Model S price was being cut 6.7% to 754,900 yuan ($103,477) from 808,900 yuan prior and the company’s Model X was priced 6.9% lower at 836,900 yuan, down from 898,900, according to Reuters. 

  Earlier in August, news broke that Tesla was adding new, lower-range iterations of its Model S and Model X that would be priced $10,000 lower than previous base prices, Yahoo reported. The standard range Model S will start at $78,490 and will offer 320 miles of range and the standard range Model X will now be priced $88,490 and will have a range of 269 miles per charge, the report says. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 19:15

• The Economist Who Cried Recession
  The Economist Who Cried Recession

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  In the fairy tale, the boy who cried wolf was ultimately right, but no one listened by the time that the wolf was there. Too many mistakes led the villagers to doubt the boy, so they didn’t respond to the actual warning.

  I, like many economists, expected a recession earlier this year. I had to back off those calls as the data continued to come in better than expected. Any signs of the “lagged and variable” impact of rate hikes didn’t seem to materialize. Additionally, those who had doubted the recession got more confident and those still considering that a recession was possible had to reconsider. As all of this was occurring, the “soft landing” mantra took over.

  According to Google trends, “soft landing” started seeing increased interest in early July and peaked the week of August 20th. It has dropped steadily since then, and maybe it is time to start questioning how soft the landing will be.

  As we go through some data, you will see that it is not clear to me that we are destined to have some form of a recession, but I do think that we better be prepared to listen to any potential warnings. The villagers ultimately lost their flock because they didn’t listen when they should have. Maybe we need to be thinking about that possibility.

  For now, I like owning bonds and stocks. I think that the recent run-up in rates (which have already started to come down) will continue to come down, which will help risk assets (stocks and credit spreads).

  But, for the 10-year yield to get below 3.9%, it is going to require some recession fears to surface, which will not be good for stocks.

  Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

  Just two weeks ago, we highlighted Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics. In this report, we tried to identify some potentially “confusing” data.

  While some short-term trends in consumer credit are concerning, they don’t appear to be so bad in the long run. Which trend will win out?

  The China trade isn’t working and my belief (increasing in intensity almost daily) is that any major improvement in China will come at the expense of the U.S. (China selling their brands or pushing commodity prices higher – see China’s Next Move).

  Generative AI seems to be helping risk assets again (based on some market leaders), but for how long?

  If you missed our inaugural X Report, I recommend it because it is an intriguing take on AI and space.

  Jobs

  We touched on jobs in that report, and we had to mention “recession” in Friday’s instant reaction to the jobs data. Overall, we characterized the report as “Goldilocks”, but the fine line between a healthy and unhealthy slowing of the economy may be difficult to see ahead of time. Maybe those who need jobs are sensing that it is more difficult to find one, so they better start looking now.

  The Sahm Rule (I still don’t understand why economists insist on calling things “rules” that are at best conjectures) states that the U.S. is in a recession if the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more from its 12-month low. The 3-month low was 3.5% at the end of April and is currently at 3.65% (so only a 0.15% increase). One thing about the Sahm Rule is that it supposedly doesn’t predict anything. It just tells us that we are likely already in a recession if the rise occurs.

  JOLTS was weak across the board. The PMI data, which came in better than expected overall, still signaled a contraction.

  The jobs data seems to fit well into the “economist who cried recession” theme as the data isn’t yet recessionary (not by a long shot), but the trend is not your friend here.

  Et Tu, Covid?

  I hoped never to have to think about COVID again, but I am hearing from people (who aren’t typically alarmists) that this new strain is something to watch. A new strain (that may have mutated so much that earlier vaccinations are less effective) could be problematic. The fact that it is ramping up as we head into the winter months could be another problem.

  Could this new strain slow down the return of “work from office”?

  I have felt that increased pressure to be in the office will help commercial real estate, which in turn helps the banks and the broader market. I’m keeping an eye out for any signs that this trend, which is gaining traction, gets derailed.
  Wanting to ignore Covid and being able to ignore it are two different things. For now, I’m watching it mostly because the warnings that I’ve heard are not from the people who cried wolf at every stage of the pandemic.

  India

  I need to do more work on this, but the “commodity super cycle” risk that I associate with a rapidly rising India seems to be generating more interest. It is far from my base case, but increasingly it seems difficult to fathom that we talk so much about inflation and so little about India. It is the most populous nation on earth and has a business sector that is benefitting from companies moving out of China.

  Bottom Line

  I like being long bonds and risky assets until the 10-year goes below 3.9%. By then, any squeeze should be over, and we can go back to fretting about the Fed and “higher for longer” and could see a resurgence of hard landing stories.

  I’m not crying recession yet, but I’m sensing that I soon will be.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 18:50

• Biden 'Not Worried' About Major UAW Strike On Automakers 
  Biden ‘Not Worried’ About Major UAW Strike On Automakers 

  President Biden on Monday expressed that he wasn’t too concerned about the growing possibility of a labor strike from the United Auto Workers’ 146,000 members. They’re seeking a 46% salary hike, a 32-hour workweek, and restoration of traditional pensions from Detroit’s big three legacy automakers. 

  “I’m not worried about a strike. I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Biden told reporters ahead of his Labor Day appearance in Philadelphia. He is expected to celebrate good-paying unionized jobs, a move to continue the ‘Bidenomics’ promotion ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

  

  General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis NV, maker of the Jeep and Chrysler brands and the UAW have until Sept. 14 to finalize a new four-year contract for union workers. Even UAW’s own president called demands “audacious” in a Facebook live video last week. 

  “Record profits mean record contracts. 

  “While big execs have used those extreme profits to pump up their pay, our members have fallen further and further behind. … The rich are getting richer while the rest of us are getting left behind,” UAW President Shawn Fain said. 

  Here are more of Fain’s “audacious” demands (list courtesy of Detroit Free Press): 

  • elimination of wage tiers

  • substantial wage increases

  • restoration of cost of living allowance increases

  • defined benefit pension for all workers

  • reestablishment of retiree medical benefits

  • the right to strike over plant closures

  • limits on the use of temporary workers

  • more paid time off

  • increased benefits to current retirees

  The Detroit News has described the demands as “the largest pay increase in recent memory.” 

  With a Sept. 14 deadline less than two weeks away, we have noted, “Automakers have historically resisted significant pay increases, especially this unusually large one.”

  Biden had previously urged Detroit’s big three legacy automakers to avoid plant closings if strikes were seen. 

  A recent Gallup survey revealed that approximately 75% of Americans favor auto workers and Hollywood film writers’ strikes.

  

  The sweetheart deal Teamsters got their workers at UPS appears to have emboldened other unions to do the same: strike. But as BofA CIO Michael Hartnett recently told clients (available to pro subscribers) in the latest weekly Flow Show, inflation appears to be stickier than previously believed because of the growing influence of labor unions. 

  Hartnett makes another tangent on why reflation is bound to be far stickier than the Fed expects, and it has to do with wages, and specifically the growing influence of labor unions: after the teamsters recently reached an agreement with UPS, which among other things included massive pay raises for both part-time and full-time workers, we are seeing strikes galore and labor unions aggressively negotiating for double-digit wage increases. The culmination of this is that, as Hartnett notes, a net 44% of Americans now support labor unions, the highest since ’72…

  

  Let the strike countdown begin — unless there’s a labor contract breakthrough between UAW and the automakers. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 18:25

• Round Two Of A Foreign-Backed Plot To Fragment Syria
  Round Two Of A Foreign-Backed Plot To Fragment Syria

  Via The Cradle, 

  Thirteen years after the onset of the war on Syria, a domestic political eruption backed by foreign states has resurfaced, threatening to once again ignite conflict in the country despite years of relative calm. Economic woes today underpin the public grievances expressed on the street. The much-heralded May 2023 reinstatement of Syria in the Arab League has thus far failed to deliver any significant political or economic relief for the beleaguered Levantine state. 

  Instead, Syria’s economy continues to deteriorate with the devaluation of the national currency against the dollar. Concurrently, a renewed US initiative to partition and weaken Syria is gaining traction, as Washington strives relentlessly to undermine Damascus’ centrality as a pivotal regional state and geopolitical player.

  

  Underpinning all this is stifling western unilateral economic sanctions imposed on Syria, as well as the territorial encroachments of US, Turkish, and Israeli military forces. 

  The illegal occupation of Syrian lands, coupled with the loss and theft of vital oil, water resources, and agricultural bounty by foreign occupation troops and their local proxy militias, further compounds the crisis, as does the recurrent Israeli aggression and missile strikes targeting Syrian infrastructure. 

  Within the context of all this devastation, some tough-love decisions made by the central government in Damascus have unsurprisingly ignited a fresh wave of protests that have now assumed a distinctly “separatist” character.

  SDF backs Suwayda secession

  The initial protests emerged in Syria’s Suwayda governorate following the removal of fuel subsidies, which caused a hike in public transportation costs and raw material prices. These grievances rapidly evolved into political demands, centering on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and policies of decentralization. 

  The latter concept implies a form of “self-administration” akin to the separatist Kurdish Autonomous Administration that receives support from the US in the northeastern region of the country.

  The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), representing the political arm of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – bolstered by the US military occupation and the cover it provides – has overtly endorsed the Suwayda protests and their transformation from socio-economic aspirations into calls for secession. 

  The SDF openly seeks to attract western assistance to replicate its Kurdish self-governance model – but in Suwayda. Importantly, this isn’t the first time the SDF has attempted to exert political influence in Suwayda. In 2019, amidst ISIS assaults on the southern governorate, the SDF pursued relations with Druze leaders, engaging in both public and secret talks to garner support for the self-governance initiative in Suwayda.

  The initial protests in Suwayda were modest in scale, and attempts by Syrian government opponents to portray these as a massive uprising fell short. The numbers involved continue to be small in comparison to Suwayda’s total population, and have thus far failed to incite a broader nationwide wave. 

  Comparisons with the 2011 uprisings  

  Others tried to ride the Suwayda momentum. In the north of the country, at the very same time, Al-Qaeda affiliate Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began to organize large-scale demonstrations in various cities and villages under its control in Idlib province – again, drawing parallels to the 2011 events that led to the Syrian war. 

  The people are out in the streets of Suwayda, Syria for a second Friday in a row.

  After the Friday prayers, they left the Mosques and gathered to protest against President al-Assad.

  They chanted “Hurry up and leave, Bashar”

  Growing protests in Syria pic.twitter.com/xsW0QXjiYG

  — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 1, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In the southern governorate of Daraa, which borders Jordan, armed individuals took to the streets and launched attacks on a number of army positions, but these were rapidly quelled. In Suwayda, security forces monitored the movements without immediate reaction. 

  Today, the momentum of the protests has dwindled, and the situation across other governorates remains largely unchanged despite a rush of rumors about a potential reenactment of the 2011 events.

  A Syrian security source informs The Cradle that Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri played a pivotal role in Suwayda’s narrative shift from local demands to separatist aspirations. His discord with the Syrian government has led him to establish ties with parties in the Persian Gulf, while internally fostering support for Suwayda’s separation. However, Hijri has since backed off, reiterating the need to preserve the unity of Syria and supporting the legitimacy of the government in Damascus.

  According to the source, some local factions in Suwayda support “the process of transforming the protest movement into demands for secession, such as the traditional opposition close to the coalition, the so-called Ahrar al-Jabal movement, the Karama faction led by Sheikh Laith al-Balous and some smuggling gangs.” 

  After the protests spread in Suwayda and Daraa, participants demanded decentralization and the implementation of UN Resolution 2254 to end the 12-year war in Syria.

  Not a populist movement 

  Some clerics and “local factions” in Suwayda have expressed solidarity with the protesters’ demands, and local news outlets have described the protests as “civil disobedience.” But the clerics do not speak with one voice, as some refuse to turn the demands into political ones, a development which reportedly prompted Sheikh Hijri to tone down his separatist rhetoric.

  One website quoted an unnamed source as saying that “the slogans raised in all villages and towns of Suwayda carry political ideas far from economic demands, most notably the overthrow of the regime.” 

  Samira Moubayed, a member of the Syrian Constitutional Committee representing the civil society bloc, told North Press that “the movement will continue until security is achieved in southern Syria. This is part of the process of political change needed and necessary across Syria.” 

  This narrative introduced a regional aspect, positioning “the security of southern Syria” as distinct from that of Damascus and its surroundings. Riad Drar, co-chair of the SDF, countered this view more explicitly, asserting that Kurdish separatists endorse the popular movement and maintain direct communication with its leadership in the south.

  Drar urged protest leaders to safeguard the movement, liaise with Syrian territories outside Damascus’ control, and establish collaborative initiatives with northeastern Syria. He also offered up the US-backed Kurdish administration as a conduit to galvanize international support for a southern secessionist movement.

  The HTS-SDF crossover  

  The US role in Syria’s southern governorates is still unclear, unlike its overt military and financial roles in the country’s north. In June, Syrian opposition media outlets aligned with Turkiye disclosed a US-supported plan to integrate areas controlled by HTS in northwestern Syria with territories directly governed by the Turkish occupation army in the north (northern Aleppo countryside and parts of Raqqa and Hasakah countryside), as well as the Kurdish separatist domains in northeastern Syria, all under a single civilian administration.

  HTS has shown that it is willing to establish channels of communication with the SDF when common economic interests emerge. Confidential sources told Syria TV at the time that HTS had hosted several delegations from al-Hasakah in recent months, including security leaders from the SDF. 

  The talks touched on the possibility of forming a joint civilian administration between the two parties, if HTS gains control over areas held by the Turkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) – previously known as the Free Syrian Army. The SDF, for its part, indicated that the US supports the unification of the northeastern and northwestern regions of Syria.

  In a revealing investigation for The Grayzone, journalist Hekmat Aboukhater detailed discussions within the Syrian opposition “lobby” in the US, where a former US official discussed the scenario of Syria’s division. This envisaged creating a “canton” in the northwest of the country under the administration of HTS, albeit with a different name to disassociate the group from its Al Qaeda origins.

  Earlier this month, HTS accused its second-in-command Abu Maria al-Qahtani, of unauthorized communication with the US-led “International coalition.” Qahtani was purportedly attempting to expand into areas controlled by the so-called SNA and the “eastern sector” within the organization. 

  Rebranding Al Qaeda, yet again  

  A Syrian security source tells The Cradle that this raised concerns within a faction of Turkish intelligence linked directly to HTS, which seeks to oversee the group’s activities and avoid involvement in US-led projects. 

  The actual intention, says the Syrian security source, is to rebrand the organization and reshape its structure, potentially for eventual integration into the Turkish-backed “SNA” confab, followed by discussions with the international coalition or other entities. It is worth noting that HTS has undergone several re-inventions, having previously been known as Jahbat al-Nusra, and, before that, Al Qaeda.

  Meanwhile, on Syria’s eastern border, the SDF has denied participating in military campaigns targeting the bordering (with Iraq) city of Albu Kamal in cooperation with US forces, but the recent visit of former US Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller to its areas suggests otherwise.

  Despite himself being illegally in Syria, Miller called for supporting stability in the region, and discussed with the Autonomous Administration the limitations it faces, the threats against it, and the necessity of supporting it economically and politically, according to a statement by the Department of Foreign Relations.

  Dogged pursuit of de facto division

  On August 27, a high-level delegation from the US Congress visited the Turkish-occupied areas in northwestern Syria, particularly the northern countryside of Aleppo. This visit seems to confirm Washington’s intentions to establish a de facto presence in Syrian territory. Concurrently, the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat published a report detailing a Turkish project aimed at the Turkification of northern Syria, which involves teaching the Turkish language to approximately 300,000 Syrian children.

  These developments collectively raise the possibility of the US administration supporting efforts to “impose a reality” that could lead to the division of Syria. This prospect could gain traction amid the economic challenges faced by Syria, the waning authority of the central state, and Ankara’s determination to remain in Syrian territory while engineering local demographics. 

  Turkiye has been constructing cities for refugees with Qatari funding, a move that lays the groundwork for scenarios similar to what’s transpiring in Suwayda – and mirroring the model of the US-funded Kurdish Autonomous Administration. Given the existing security, military, and political landscape in Syria, it becomes evident that returning to the 2011 model of popular protests, which eventually transformed into an armed rebellion, remains an uphill task for the US and its allies. 

  Despite their inability to overthrow the government through military means, these actors – comprising the US, its European partners, Turkiye, Qatar, and Israel – remain undeterred in pursuing a de facto division of Syria. 

  Their strategy entails surrounding and economically strangling key areas under the control of the central government in Damascus. Although this may not immediately threaten the government’s stability, it poses an existential threat to the integrity of the Syrian state itself.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 18:00

• US Sanctions Fail Again: Huawei Unveils New Smartphone With Its Own Advanced Chip
  US Sanctions Fail Again: Huawei Unveils New Smartphone With Its Own Advanced Chip

  Huawei Technologies Co., which has faced several years of US semiconductor sanctions, unveiled a new smartphone with a cutting-edge 7-nanometer processor in China. While this processor matches the performance of Apple’s iPhones from 2018, it raises questions about the effectiveness of US sanctions in curbing China’s progress in chip technology. There are concerns this development could enrage Washington. 

  Bloomberg purchased a Huawei Mate 60 Pro. The handset was delivered to TechInsights for a complete teardown. They found a new Kirin 9000s chip manufactured in China by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. 

  TechInsights said SMIC had used existing equipment and applied its second-generation 7-nanometer process, known as the N+2 node, to manufacture the Kirin 9000s chip for the Mate 60 Pro. This phone with the new chip is on par with Apple’s iPhones launched in 2018. Currently, iPhone chips are made by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, using a 4-nanometer process. 

  

  The unveiling of Mate 60 Pro with the new chip shows China’s advancements in areas such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors have yet to be hindered by US sanctions and suggests the world’s second-largest economy still has a lot of room to innovate. 

  “It’s a pretty important statement for China,” TechInsights Vice Chair Dan Hutcheson said, adding, “SMIC’s technology advances are on an accelerated trajectory, and appear to have addressed yield-impacting issues in their 7nm technology.”

  Paul Triolo, the technology policy lead at the Washington-based business consulting firm Albright Stonebridge Group, told The Washington Post, “This development will almost certainly prompt much stronger calls for further tightening of export control licensing for US suppliers of Huawei, who continue to be able to ship commodity semiconductors that are not used for 5G applications.” 

  China’s official broadcaster, CGTN, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, said this is “Huawei’s first higher-end Kirin processor since 2020 after the US government restricted American businesses from selling their products or services to Huawei.” 

  The new Kirin chip is manufactured by #Chinese #semiconductor company #SMIC. It is Huawei’s first higher-end Kirin processor since 2020 after the U.S. government restricted American businesses from selling their products or services to #Huawei. #China #USsanctions #semiconductor https://t.co/uqE5wXEaow

  — CGTN (@CGTNOfficial) August 29, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Huawei breaks free from US tech blockade,” The Global Times, a state-run communist newspaper in China, posted on X. We have reported: Huawei To Dodge US Sanctions With ‘Secret’ Network Of Chip Factories. 

  #GTCartoon: Huawei breaks free from US tech blockade. @_ValiantPanda_ pic.twitter.com/l19X7nDPfc

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) September 3, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  SMIC shares in Hong Kong rose 6.1% on the new chip news. 

  

  In mid-Sept., Apple is expected to begin taking preorders for new iPhones built with 3-nanometer chips. Even though Mate 60 Pro is at 7-nanometer, the point is that Washington’s sanctions are failing to cripple China’s chip development.

  … where else in the world have we seen US sanctions fail to paralyze countries? Ah, yes, Russia. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 17:35

• Chicago Teachers' Union President, Hater Of Private Schools And School Choice, Reportedly Sends Child To Private School
  Chicago Teachers’ Union President, Hater Of Private Schools And School Choice, Reportedly Sends Child To Private School

  By Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

  Stacy Davis-Gates is undoubtedly Illinois’ most prominent and rabid opponent of school choice — and pretty much everybody and everything associated with it, all of which she labels racist or worse. As president of the Chicago Teachers Union, she is at the forefront of its campaign to kill Illinois’ meager Invest in Kids Act, which currently gives about 9,000 disadvantaged kids scholarships to attend private schools. “It must be ‘game over’” for the program, the CTU says.

  But, as initially reported** by SubX News, she sends one of her kids to to Chicago’s De La Salle Institute, a private, Catholic high school.

  

  Consider that in light of some of what she has said against providing needy parents with the means to attend a private school like De La Salle through school choice programs [emphasis is added]:

  “I’m also a mother, my children go to the Chicago public school,” she said in a webinar. “These are things that help to legitimize my space within the coalition but also helps to amplify my voice as a leader in labor because a white dude whose kids go to school in the suburbs can’t really have that same voice in the same way.”

  When asked in an interview if she had concerns about school-choice and privatization supporters running for the school board, she said, “Yes, we are concerned about the encroachment of fascists in Chicago. We are concerned about the marginalization of public education through the eyes of those who’ve never intended for Black people to be educated. So we’re going to fight tooth and nail to make sure that type of fascism and racism does not exist on our Board of Education.”

  “I can’t advocate on behalf of public education and the children of this city and educators in this city without it taking root in my own household,” she told Chicago Magazine.

  On Twitter, she has said things like “School choice was actually the choice of racists. It was created to avoid integrating schools with Black children.” Private schools are “Segregation Academies,” she wrote on Twitter. “Call them private schools supported by taxpayer funds – vouchers – so your northern cousins understand better,” she said. And she linked to an article titled “The Racist Origins of Private School Vouchers.”

  De La Salle, where Davis-Gates sends one of her three kids, has long been a diamond in the rough of Southside high schools. But with tuition at $14,750 per year, it’s open only to those with some means, like Davis-Gates, and the few who are fortunate enough to get financial help.

  School choice is about getting that help to more of the poor –- creating equality of choice with those who have means. The Invest in Kids Act does that, though for too few students thanks to its paltry funding. Davis-Gates’ opposition to it and her statements about private schools, all while constantly claiming status as the poor’s heroine, are hypocrisy at its most revolting.

  In a Chicago mayoral endorsement of Brandon Johnson, she wrote she picked somebody who “values my intersections.”

  Her “intersections” include two faces.

  ** I have reached out to CTU for confirmation that Davis-Gates has a child enrolled in a private school and will update if I get a response. Numerous entries on Twitter have also asked her to respond, but no answers as of the time I wrote this.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 17:10

• Biden Built 'Predictable' Loophole That Resulted In Flood Of Illegal "Family Units" Into US
  Biden Built ‘Predictable’ Loophole That Resulted In Flood Of Illegal “Family Units” Into US

  A change made to US immigration policy by the Biden administration led to a “predictable” rise in the number of “family units” attempting to cross into the US border.

  

  Based on a new report of preliminary Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) data, August was the highest month this year for overall migrant encounters – hitting 91,000. Policy experts say that was ‘entirely predictable’ due to a rule change which exempted ‘family units’ from being automatically denied asylum.

  “Notwithstanding the administration’s claim that they are refusing to consider asylum claims from people encountered between ports of entry, the rule they adopted has huge loopholes. Among those explicitly exempted are family units,” said Ira Mehlman, a spokesperson for the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), in a Friday statement to Just the News.

  “So, guess what? We are seeing a surge in family units crossing the border illegally and it is not even clear if they really are family units. As we have seen in the past, there have been rent-a-kid schemes to help people take advantage of the laxer rules that apply to adults accompanied by children. The record number of family units encountered at the border was entirely predictable,” he added.

  Since May, immigrants seeking asylum at the U.S. border have been able to request appointments, up to 1,450 per day, CPB says, with immigration officials using the CBP One smartphone application. 

  Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, told Just the News that the immigrants who use the CBP One app to schedule appointments still have to make it to the border somehow. -Just the News

  “They still have to pay smugglers to get here and the whole thing is a boon for alien smugglers,” said Krikorian. “It’s supposed to only be for people who have made it to Mexico already and even that’s bad enough, because you have to pay a smuggler to get there but the smugglers have figured it out. They’re actually using it.”

  Krikorian also says that the increase in family units was predictable due to current DHS policy.

  “I don’t know what the administration thought was going to happen,” he continued.

  Hilariously, the White House is now claiming that President Joe Biden has “done more” to secure the border “than anybody else.”

  KJP: Joe Biden “has done more to secure the border and to deal with this issue of immigration than anybody else. He really has” 🤣

  pic.twitter.com/iXuimrV5vm

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 31, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Secure it for who, exactly?

  According to the CBP, a family is defined as “group of two or more aliens consisting of a minor or minors accompanied by his/her/their adult parent(s) or legal guardian(s).”

  Last Thursday, the Washington Post reported that the number of family units seeking entry into the US hit a record high in August.

  

  The Post reports that the US Border Patrol “arrested at least 91,000 immigrants who crossed as part of a family group in August, exceeding the prior one-month record of 84,486 set in May 2019.”

  And how many didn’t they arrest?

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 16:45

• Drunk Drivers Causing Parental Deaths Now Liable For Child Support In Texas
  Drunk Drivers Causing Parental Deaths Now Liable For Child Support In Texas

  Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

  Drunk drivers who are convicted of intoxication manslaughter will now need to pay child support if they kill a parent or guardian of a child in a car crash, according to a new Texas law that went into effect on Sept. 1.

  

  The law was a bipartisan bill that Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, signed in June.

  “Any time a parent passes is tragic, but a death at the hands of a drunk driver is especially heinous,” Mr. Abbott said at the time.

  “I was proud to sign HB 393 into law this year to require offenders to pay child support for the children of their victims.”

  Advocates of the law view it as a way to discourage drunk driving.

  Under the law, Texas House Bill 393, the court shall order a person convicted of intoxicated manslaughter “to pay restitution for a child whose parent or guardian was the victim of the offense.”

  “[T]he court shall determine an amount to be paid monthly for the support of the child until the child reaches 18 years of age or has graduated from high school, whichever is later,” text of the legislation reads.

  The court will weigh several factors when deciding the restitution amount, such as the child’s financial situation and needs. If relevant, the finances of the surviving parent, guardian, or the Department of Family and Protective Services will be taken into account. The child’s standard of living, overall well-being, and any childcare costs due to a working surviving parent will also influence the decision.

  Intoxicated manslaughter in Texas has a potential penalty of up to two decades in prison.

  The person convicted of intoxicated manslaughter must start the child support payments within one year of being released. They can make a plan for the missed payments and must pay everything they owe, even if the payment was supposed to end while they were in jail.

  The payments will continue until each child of the victim turns 18.

  ‘Bentley’s Law’

  The law has been nicknamed “Bentley’s law.” It was created by Cecilia Williams, a Missouri woman who lost her son, daughter-in-law, and four-month-old grandson in a crash that involved a drunk driver on April 13, 2021.

  “I got up out of bed to an officer and a state trooper standing at my door,” Ms. Williams told KSDK-TV in an interview in August 2022.

  “They repeatedly told me that they had died in a fiery crash.”

  Ms. Williams said in a statement on the website of Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD): “Bentley’s Law was created out of a tragedy that has affected the lives of two beautiful boys, Bentley and Mason, and the lives of our family. These crashes are totally preventable, and I will continue to fight for change for all who have suffered from impaired drivers. Many families like mine suffer such a loss every second of every day, and Bentley’s Law will bring change to hold the offender accountable for such horrific actions.”

  

  A police officer administers a breathalyzer test to a man at a sobriety checkpoint. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

  Tennessee became the first state to pass “Bentley’s Law” in July 2022.

  Similar laws are being considered in over 20 other states.

  Drunk Driving in Texas

  Texas has among the worst rates of drunk driving in the nation, ranking third according to a Forbes analysis in late 2022. Montana has the highest rate, followed by Wyoming.

  According to the analysis, Texas has the most underage drunk drivers involved in fatal crashes at approximately 1 per 100,000 residents.

  More than 8 drunk drivers per 100,000 were involved in fatal crashes, the second-highest number behind Montana, the report showed.

  And nearly 40 percent of all traffic fatalities in the state were caused by drunk drivers.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 16:20

• Orange Man Disqualified? Adam Schiff Talks 14th Amendment
  Orange Man Disqualified? Adam Schiff Talks 14th Amendment

  Without outright saying so, Democrats have made no secret that their endgame with the various Trump prosecutions is to get him kicked off the 2024 ballot.

  To that end, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said on Sunday that a legal argument to disqualify the former president is “valid,” and that the part of the amendment that bans those who have “engaged in insurrection” from holding elected office “fits Donald Trump to a T.”

  

  Appearing on MSNBC, Schiff told former Biden Spox Jen Psaki that the 14th Amendment doesn’t even require someone to actually be convicted of insurrection in order to be barred from holding public office – only that they must have engaged in it.

  “I think it is a valid argument. The 14th Amendment, Section 3 is pretty clear. If you engage in acts of insurrection or rebellion against the government, or you give aid and comfort to those who do, you are disqualified from running,” said Schiff. “It doesn’t require that you be convicted of insurrection. It just requires that you have engaged in these acts.”

  Of note, Democrats have floated using another section of the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling.

  “It’s a disqualification from holding office again, and it fits Donald Trump to a T,” Schiff continued, adding that he imagines this legal theory could either be tested by a secretary of state, or a plaintiff challenging Trump’s name on the ballot – and that he expects the issue to potentially make it all the way to the Supreme Court.

  “I think this will be tested when a secretary of state either refuses to put him on the ballot, or puts him on the ballot and is challenged by a litigant. I would imagine it would go up to the Supreme Court, and that’s the big question mark through all of this, which is what will the Supreme Court do?” said Schiff, adding “There are prominent constitutional scholars, as well as prominent progressive scholars who believe that he should be disqualified.”

  And what does Schiff think that the conservative-biased Supreme Court will do?

  “Only time will tell, but I do think it is a very legitimate issue. By the clear terms of the 14th Amendment he should be disqualified from holding office.”

  Watch:

  .@RepAdamSchiff: “By the clear terms of the 14th Amendment, [Trump] should be disqualified from holding office.” pic.twitter.com/SYI4rrpSgC

  — Inside with Jen Psaki (@InsideWithPsaki) September 3, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And of course, looks like the memo went out.

  While there’s a “powerful argument to be made” that former Pres. Trump is disqualified from running again under the 14th Amendment, Sen. Tim Kaine predicts that the issue while be “resolved in the courts.” https://t.co/gLfhOlFr03 pic.twitter.com/KvpDBqrSAB

  — This Week (@ThisWeekABC) September 3, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We’re sure that whatever happens it will be conveniently scheduled for maximum election interference.

  Of course, as Andrew C. McCarthy noted in National Review in January, If Trump was not disqualified under the impeachment clause, a remedy that undeniably applied to him, he is not going to be disqualified under the 14th Amendment, which doesn’t.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 15:55

• Zuckerberg's "Twitter Killer" App Struggles For Traction
  Zuckerberg’s “Twitter Killer” App Struggles For Traction

  Authored by Benjamin Kew via The Epoch Times,

  Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s microblogging platform Threads, launched to great acclaim as Instagram’s “Twitter Killer” in July, appears to be showing signs of struggle.

  The initial signs for Threads were extremely encouraging.

  The platform—nearly a carbon copy of Twitter, now known as X—pulled in a staggering 100 million sign-ups in less than five days.

  Forbes senior contributor John Koetsier outlined how Twitter had “imploded” under the leadership of Elon Musk and cited the “instant credibility” and “simplicity” of Threads as an alternative.

  

  Yet nearly two months on from its seemingly successful launch, Zuckerberg’s vision of stealing Twitter’s thunder may be little more than a pipe dream.

  Even NBC admitted on Aug. 24 that the platform is “struggling for traction.”

  “An analysis of Android users by Similarweb, a digital data and analytics company, estimated that daily active users on Threads’ Android app peaked at 49.3 million in early July and fell to 10.3 million after a month—a drop of nearly 80%,” the media outlet reported in mid-August.

  A week after its July 5 launch, daily active Threads users peaked at around 26.7 million, then gradually declined to around 13.5 million by month’s end, it said.

  “Some celebrities who joined the platform before it was available to the public, such as Jennifer Lopez and Tom Brady, haven’t posted at all since launch week. MrBeast, the YouTube star who was the first user to reach 1 million followers on Threads, stopped posting about a month ago.”

  One of the most common theories among conservatives for the platform’s underwhelming start is that while Twitter has finally embraced free speech, Threads is a platform governed by strict content moderation and politically driven censorship.

  Allum Bokhari, a senior technology reporter at Breitbart News and author of “Deleted: Big Tech’s Battle to Erase a Movement and Subvert Democracy,” told The Epoch Times that the weakness of Threads lies in its failure to attract subversive content.

  “Threads was touted as the polite, politically correct alternative to Elon Musk’s X. But when the selling point of your platform is inoffensiveness, you can’t be surprised when users simply get bored,” Mr. Bokhari explained.

  “X has become friendlier to edgy, dissident content that polite society would prefer to see banned, and that’s precisely why its users remain loyal.”

  

  This photo illustration shows the X logo (formerly Twitter) on a smartphone screen in Los Angeles, California, on July 31, 2023. (Chris Delmas/AFP via Getty Images)

  Free Speech Is Not the Only Concern

  Yet, issues of free speech are far from the only concern.

  Jake Denton, a research associate at the Tech Policy Center for The Heritage Foundation, told The Epoch Times that while X is moving forward with offering new features, Threads still provides a disappointing user experience.

  “While Zuckerberg and Meta were quick to boast about the early sign-up numbers for Threads, that momentum has rapidly dissipated, and the platform seems to be in free fall,” he said. 

  “What strikes me most is the stark contrast between the early promises of an exciting new platform and the underwhelming reality that one finds upon logging in.”

  Users eager for a fresh experience encountered “a feed saturated with interactions between mega-corporations and consumer brands as” Mr. Denton said, comparing it to “stumbling into a virtual networking event for their social media managers.”

  “Meta will truly need a miracle to save this platform from irrelevancy. If Zuckerberg can’t find a way to bring interesting content to the platform—content that people actually want to consume—Threads will be dead on arrival,” he predicted.

  Not everyone is as pessimistic about the company’s future.

  Mike Benz, executive director of the Foundation for Freedom Online, warned that Threads could be waiting for X to experience a crisis that it can take advantage of.

  “Threads doesn’t need to be as good as Twitter to dethrone it—all it needs to be is a close-enough substitute … [so] that when Twitter is destabilized and put into crisis, Threads can be there to catch the fall,” he told The Epoch Times. 

  “That crisis can come from several directions: financial, if advertiser boycotts ramp back up; legal, via bankrupting lawfare; and regulatory, via new regulations such as the EU’s new disinformation laws.

  “There are 2.3 billion Instagram users, versus only 450 million Twitter users. That’s a 5x size advantage Threads has to tap into in terms of the Facebook-Instagram-WhatsApp economy into which Threads is being installed. You can’t underestimate that or rule it out. Especially with government and institutional support,” Mr. Benz said.

  He added that, given Mr. Zuckerberg’s willingness to comply with the demands of the Biden administration, Threads may also benefit from being the app of choice for the U.S. national security state.

  “Zuckerberg has won back much of that support after doing the Biden admin’s bidding on all things content moderation ahead of the 2020 election and throughout this term,” Mr. Benz said. 

  “Because Zuckerberg has proven to be such a reliable ally to the Pentagon and State Department, I would not be surprised if Threads begins to be pushed by the U.S. government for dissident groups funded by the U.S. national security state to use while organizing revolutions or resistance movements abroad,” he said, likening it to the State Department promoting Telegram in 2020 for the attempted color revolution in Belarus.

  “It’s hard to predict at the moment,” Mr. Benz said. “… as the 2024 election approaches, or another pandemic scare, or some other crisis or high-stakes geopolitical event appears, the true nature of the threat posed by Threads will make itself more clear.”

  However, others believe that Threads’ commitment to censoring the political fringes will prove fatal to its long-term survival.

  Among them is former Harvard professor Robert Epstein, a senior research psychologist at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology, who argued that Zuckerberg’s best hope is that Elon Musk sabotages his own company.

  “I don’t see a way for Threads to overtake Twitter/X in the microblogging domain,” said Mr. Epstein.

  “By minimizing moderation—which Facebook can’t do on Threads—Twitter is attracting more extreme content than it ever has before, and extreme content draws traffic. I don’t see a way for Facebook to compete with that.”

  “Of course, it is always possible that Musk or his appointees will mismanage “X” so badly that the company just implodes,” he continued. “Perhaps Zuckerberg is counting on that.”

  Yet given Mr. Musk’s track record of building successful companies, most notably Tesla and SpaceX, some might argue that this possibility remains remote.

  Mr. Zuckerberg, meanwhile, remains publicly optimistic, insisting that he will spend the rest of the year developing its product and fighting to retain its users.

  “I’m very optimistic about how the Threads community is coming together. Early growth was off the charts, but more importantly, 10s of millions of people now come back daily … way ahead of what we expected,” he wrote in late July.

  “The focus for the rest of the year is improving the basics and retention. It’ll take time to stabilize, but once we nail that then we’ll focus on growing the community. We’ve run this playbook many times (FB, IG, Stories, Reels, etc) and I’m confident Threads is on a good path too.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 09/04/2023 – 15:30

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