- The Democrats' Problem With Democracy
The Democrats’ Problem With Democracy
Authored by J.Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics.com,
Democrats have challenged the legitimacy of every presidential election they’ve lost this millennium: They blamed a corrupt Supreme Court for their defeat in 2000, crooked voting machines in 2004 and Russian interference in 2016 – sparking a years-long collusion hoax to knee-cap Trump’s presidency.
But now, as President Biden’s poll numbers tank, his legislative agenda falters and his party’s 2022 prospects look increasingly grim, they and their media allies are adding a new twist to the tactic: They’re challenging elections before they happen.
Prestigious news outlets including the New York Times, Washington Post, the Atlantic, NPR and the New York Review of Books warn that American democracy is under siege. With headlines ripped straight from Democratic Party talking points they argue that Republicans are planning a two-pronged coup to seize power in 2022 and beyond.
Step one, they say, is a series of election laws being passed by GOP state legislatures designed to thwart the will of the people.
Anyone who has bothered to read these pieces of legislation – which modify but still maintain early voting, mail-in voting, and other open-ballot measures – knows that their impact will be negligible. That hasn’t stopped Biden and others from describing them as “Jim Crow in the 21st Century.” Note this is the same argument they made for years about voter ID laws, which, studies show, do not suppress minority turnout. Further claims that the laws will allow state legislatures to pick the winners despite the tallies is also a fabrication.
The intent of this argument is clear – to cast doubt on the legitimacy on all Republican victories. That it is being made by the same people who relentlessly (and correctly) assail Trump’s false claims that he won the 2020 election demonstrates their bad faith.
The second prong of their coup narrative is even more invidious. In their telling, the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol was just a test run for Republicans to violently seize power if their plans to rig the elections fail.
Jan. 6 was, indeed, a dark day in American history; it was a criminal riot stoked by a troubled president. Its perpetrators, at every level, deserve the full measure of fair justice.
But it was not insurrection. The perpetrators were unarmed, for one thing. Reuters reports that the FBI found scant evidence that the riot was an organized plot to topple the government. And we can trust the authority of our own eyes to see the absurdity of claims that Jan. 6 was worse than 9/11.
I am tempted to say that no reasonable person could embrace the coup fantasies advanced by the left. And while there is almost certainly a cynical, partisan aspect to these arguments – proponents believe they will help their cause – the truly frightening thing is that many are sincere.
Many honestly believe that the American right is a hotbed of violent hatred bent on gaining control of the nation as the brownshirts did in Germany during the early 1930s. To their mind, Trump is only the outward symbol of a cultural cancer (although NPR compared him to Hitler in a recent report).
Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland recently summarized this view in the New Yorker.
“January 6th was not the final act, but perhaps the prologue to a titanic struggle between democracy and violent authoritarianism in America. Long after Donald Trump is gone, we’ll be dealing with a movement of violent, neo-Fascist elements who came very close to knocking over the U.S. government.”
Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Barton Gellman tried to define the threat more precisely in his long Atlantic article, “Trump’s Next Coup Has Already Begun,” citing a June poll which reported that just over 8% of Americans agreed that Biden’s election “was illegitimate and that violence is justified to restore Trump to the White House.” Never mind that poll results are notoriously unreliable, especially when trying to reduce complex questions to yes, no and maybe answers; this was enough for Gellman and his sources to declare that at least 21 million Americans are “committed insurrections.”
This squishy finding – supported by no evidence of armed groups planning political mayhem – then becomes fact, as Gellman quotes an “expert” who states, “‘The last time America saw middle-class whites involved in violence was the expansion of the KKK in the 1920s.’”
Commentator John Heilemann echoed and expanded this “fact” without challenge on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” telling viewers, “We’ve had political violence before, lynching, many things over the course of time that African Americans have suffered, but this is 30 million people right now who are ready to take up arms.”
Probably because we have never seen signs of such violent intent – even the Jan. 6 assault was arms-free – journalist Ron Brownstein assured CNN voters that the “Let’s Go, Brandon” chant widely adopted by conservatives as code for “F— Joe Biden proves their thirst for “insurrection.”
How can Democrats and their allies embrace such a dark view of the American people? History provides part of the answer.
From their 19th century roots as the party run by Southern planters and Northern political machines, to their embrace of technocratic progressivism during the 20th century, to their current status as the party of global elites, the Democratic Party has long been a hierarchical outfit where those at the top promised to act in the best interests of those below them. Especially in the South, this paternalism was fused with demagoguery, as leaders kept voters in line by playing on fears of the “Negro menace.”
In the years following World War II, Democrats gradually changed the groups they pretended to speak for – working-class whites were out, once marginalized groups were in – but their DNA remained the same. They continued their uneasy relationship with the give-and-take of American democracy; convinced that their policies were unassailable, they argued that moral failings – stupidity, racism and greed – explained why we have two parties (see Thomas Frank’s much-discussed but superficially reasoned 2004 book, “What’s the Matter with Kansas?”). And they began using the exact same language that had once been deployed against blacks to demonize Republicans – today’s warnings of rampant white supremacy and conservative insurrection are updated versions of their ugly rhetoric regarding slave revolts.
In fairness, Republicans have engaged in many of the tactics ascribed to them. But their historic embrace of limited governmental power has usually restrained their impulse to direct people’s lives.
They have tended to demonize small groups (e.g. left-wing communists) rather than entire populations. The argument that Republicans hate African Americans is simply a Democrat falsehood belied by the GOP’s long support for racial justice and the fact that America is by every measure less racist than it has ever been.
America is a fractured nation and we must be clear-eyed about the sources of this division. But instead of providing insight, the ugly smears passing as wisdom among Democrats are only adding fuel to the fire. In their quest for power, they seem willing to burn down the entire house.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/06/2022 – 00:00 - China Imposes New Rules Regulating Algorithms Used By Big Tech
China Imposes New Rules Regulating Algorithms Used By Big Tech
Beijing has once again devised a way to protect Chinese children from the deleterious effects of technology like TikTok: China’s Cyberspace Administration will start closely regulating algorithms like the TikTok content recommendation algorithm start.
A draft of the rules was released back in August. But according to the final version released Tuesday, the rules forbid practices that encourage addiction or high consumption as well as any activities that endanger national security.
According to the Internet Information Service Algorithm Recommendation Management Regulations: “In recent years, algorithm applications have injected new momentum into political, economic, and social development. At the same time, problems caused by algorithm discrimination, ‘big data killing,’ and inducing indulgence in the unreasonable application of algorithms have also profoundly affected the normal communication order and market order.”
Algorithms like the TikTok algorithm creates problems like social order poses challenges to safeguarding ideological security, social fairness and justice, and the legitimate rights and interests of netizens. The introduction of targeted algorithm recommendation rules and regulations in the field of Internet information services is a need to prevent and resolve security risks, and it is also a need to promote the healthy development of algorithm recommendation services and improve the level of supervision capabilities.
The decision to crack down on social media companies that harvest user data in this way comes as Beijing struggles to protect user data. Chinese tech companies use algorithm technology for a wide range of applications, from recommending content to users on e-commerce and short video platforms to offering efficient food delivery services. However, companies seeking better profits have been accused of using highly manipulative algorithms to grab user attention, influence prices, and even exploit the rights of gig workers.
The new policy requires companies that use these types of algorithms to publicly disclose how their recommendation algorithms work, and allow users to easily turn off the service.
The new rules also help protect the Chinese public from “fake news” that might be disseminated via platforms like TikTok.
Read the full statement from the Cyberspace Administration of China below (translation courtesy of Google):
Recently, the State Internet Information Office, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the “Internet Information Service Algorithm Recommendation Management Regulations” (hereinafter referred to as the “Regulations”), which will come into force on March 1, 2022. The relevant person in charge of the National Internet Information Office stated that the “Regulations” were issued to standardize Internet information service algorithm recommendation activities, safeguard national security and social public interests, protect the legitimate rights and interests of citizens, legal persons and other organizations, and promote the healthy development of Internet information services.
In recent years, algorithm applications have injected new momentum into political, economic, and social development. At the same time, problems caused by algorithm discrimination, “big data killing”, and inducing indulge in the unreasonable application of algorithms have also profoundly affected the normal communication order and market order. And social order poses challenges to safeguarding ideological security, social fairness and justice, and the legitimate rights and interests of netizens. The introduction of targeted algorithm recommendation rules and regulations in the field of Internet information services is a need to prevent and resolve security risks, and it is also a need to promote the healthy development of algorithm recommendation services and improve the level of supervision capabilities.
The “Regulations” clarify that the application of algorithmic recommendation technology refers to the use of algorithmic technologies such as generating synthesis, personalized push, sorting and selection, retrieval and filtering, and scheduling and decision-making to provide users with information. The national cybersecurity and informatization department is responsible for overall planning and coordination of the national algorithm recommendation service governance and related supervision and management. The State Council’s telecommunications, public security, market supervision and other relevant departments are responsible for the supervision and management of algorithm recommendation services in accordance with their respective responsibilities. The local cybersecurity and informatization department is responsible for overall planning and coordination of algorithm recommendation service governance and related supervision and management within the administrative area. Relevant local departments are responsible for the supervision and management of algorithm recommendation services in their respective administrative regions according to their respective responsibilities.
The “Regulations” clarify the information service specifications of algorithm recommendation service providers, requiring algorithm recommendation service providers to adhere to the mainstream value orientation, actively spread positive energy, and must not use algorithm recommendation services to engage in illegal activities or disseminate illegal information. Measures should be taken to prevent and Resist the dissemination of bad information; establish and improve management systems and technical measures such as user registration, information release review, data security and personal information protection, and emergency response to security incidents, and regularly review, evaluate, and verify algorithm mechanisms, models, data, and application results; Establish and improve the feature database for identifying illegal and bad information. If illegal or bad information is found, corresponding measures should be taken; strengthen the management of user models and user tags, and improve the rules for points of interest and user tags recorded in the user model; Strengthen the ecological management of the algorithm recommendation service page, establish and improve the mechanism of manual intervention and user independent selection, and actively present information that meets the mainstream value orientation in key links; standardize the development of Internet news information services, and shall not generate synthetic false news information or disseminate non-state regulations News information released by the units within; algorithms shall not be used to influence online public opinion, circumvent supervision and management, monopoly and unfair competition.
The “Regulations” clarify the user rights protection requirements of algorithm recommendation service providers, including guaranteeing the right to know the algorithm, requiring users to be informed of the provision of algorithm recommendation services, and publicizing the basic principles, purpose and intentions and main operating mechanisms of the service; guaranteeing the algorithm The right to choose should provide users with options that are not specific to their personal characteristics, or the option to conveniently turn off algorithm recommendation services. In addition, the “Regulations” clarify specific requirements for the provision of algorithmic recommendation services to minors, the elderly, workers, consumers and other subjects. If algorithmic recommendation services are not used to induce minors to indulge in the Internet, it should be convenient for the safety of the elderly. The use of algorithmic recommendation services shall establish and improve the relevant algorithms of platform order distribution, remuneration composition and payment, working hours, rewards and punishments, and shall not use algorithms to implement unreasonable trading conditions such as transaction prices based on consumer preferences and transaction habits. Differential treatment, etc.
The “Regulations” require that algorithm recommendation service providers with public opinion attributes or social mobilization capabilities should fill in the filing information through the Internet information service algorithm filing system within ten working days from the date of providing the service, and perform the filing procedures; if the filing information has changed , The change procedures should be completed within the specified time. Algorithm recommendation service providers shall keep network logs in accordance with the law, cooperate with relevant departments to carry out safety assessment and supervision and inspection work, and provide necessary technical and data support and assistance.
The relevant person in charge of the National Internet Information Office pointed out that the governance of algorithm recommendation services requires the participation of the government, enterprises, society, and netizens to promote fairness, fairness, standardization and transparency of algorithm recommendation services, promote the improvement of algorithm recommendation services, and create a clearer network space.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 23:40 - Betty White's Cause Of Death Revealed, Agent Shuts Down Booster Shot Rumors
Betty White’s Cause Of Death Revealed, Agent Shuts Down Booster Shot Rumors
Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Comedic actress Betty White died just weeks shy of her 100th birthday as a result of “natural causes,” her agent confirmed on Monday.
“Betty died peacefully in her sleep at her home,” her agent and close friend Jeff Witjas said in a statement to People on Monday, shutting down rumors that White had received a COVID-19 booster shot on Dec. 28.
“People are saying her death was related to getting a booster shot three days earlier, but that is not true,” Witjas said.
“She died of natural causes. Her death should not be politicized—that is not the life she lived.”
Betty White attends Betty “White Out” Tour at The Los Angeles Zoo with The Lifeline Program at Los Angeles Zoo in Los Angeles, Calif., on Dec. 11, 2012. (Brian To/Getty Images for The Lifeline Program) White, an award-winning actress whose career spanned more than eight decades, starred in hit television sitcoms including “The Golden Girls” and “The Mary Tyler Moore Show,” She died on Dec. 31 at the age of 99 at her home in California. Her 100th birthday would have been on Jan. 17.
Witjas’ statement follows the circulation of a fabricated quote on social media suggesting that the late actress had received a booster shot on Dec. 28.
“Eat healthy and get all your vaccines. I just got boosted today,” White was falsely quoted as saying next to a link to a report titled, “Betty White: I’m lucky to still be in good health” from a Minnesota news outlet Crow River Media, according to The Associated Press.
The article does not include the bogus quote, and archived versions of the story on the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine also do not mention White having taken a COVID-19 vaccine booster.
She said in her interview with Crow River Media published on Dec. 28 that she was “so lucky to be in such good health and feel so good” at her age, and that she felt really healthy.
“Even though Betty was about to be 100, I thought she would live forever,” Witjas said on Friday. “I will miss her terribly and so will the animal world that she loved so much. I don’t think Betty ever feared passing because she always wanted to be with her most beloved husband Allen Ludden. She believed she would be with him again.”
White and her late husband Ludden were married from 1963 until he passed away in 1981 from stomach cancer. The 99-year-old’s “very last word” was reportedly “Allen,” according to Page Six.
White never had any of her own biological children, but the actress was stepmother to Ludden’s three children. The pair reportedly met after she appeared as a guest on the televised game show “Password,” where Ludden was the host, according to Romper.
White previously told People that she felt “blessed” to take on the role as stepmother to Ludden’s children.
On Jan. 17, White’s milestone birthday, the documentary “Betty White: A Celebration” will be screened nationwide. The film’s title was changed from “Betty White: 100 Years Young—A Birthday Celebration” after her death.
“Our hearts mourn today with the passing of Betty White,” producers Steve Boettcher and Mike Trinklein said in a statement.
“During the many years we worked with her, we developed a great love and admiration for Betty as a person, and as an accomplished entertainer. … We will go forward with our plans to show the film … in hopes our film will provide a way for all who loved her to celebrate her life—and experience what made her such a national treasure,” they said.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 23:20 - Quebec Under Curfew, Unvaxx'd Banned From Buying Booze, Marijuana
Quebec Under Curfew, Unvaxx’d Banned From Buying Booze, Marijuana
Quebec reimposed a nighttime curfew beginning New Year’s Eve as COVID-19 infections surged. Restaurants in the Canadian province only offer takeout service, while Gyms, bars, and movie theaters have been closed for days.
As the media and government drum up another COVID scare, Quebec Prime Minister Francois Legault wants to punish unvaccinated people for the soaring infections despite 85% of the residents in the province being vaccinated.
This week, Quebec Prime Minister Francois Legault is expected to announce more restrictive measures towards unvaccinated people, such as banning them from purchasing hard liquor and marijuana.
On Tuesday, the Journal de Montreal reported that “there was still some discussion to fine-tune the passport enforcement” at entrances or cash registers to block the unvaccinated from entering liquor and cannabis stores.
Vaccine passports have been required to access non-essential businesses such as theaters, bars and restaurants, casinos, conventions and conferences, places of worship, and sports facilities. If Legault goes ahead with the move, unvaccinated will only be able to purchase beer and wine.
“Time and time again, the government has said it does not intend to force officials to be vaccinated,” the local paper said. However, through indirect ways, it’s making life for the unvaccinated into a living hell, with an end goal to make them eventually concede and get jabbed.
What’s ironic is that the new vaccine requirement at liquor and cannabis stores will only apply to unvaccinated shoppers but not employees.
The fact that authorities in Quebec are using “totalitarian” methods to make the lives of unvaccinated people miserable and instill fear in the overall population as the less severe Omicron variant sweeps across the world is nothing short of disgusting.
The Canadian government has even admitted to launching a psychological operations campaign against their own people to manipulate them into vaccine compliance.
The use of fear by the government and corporate media has definitely been ethically questionable. On Sunday, a convoy of police rolled around Montreal with flashing lights and sirens telling people to go home or get fined for breaking curfew.
Montréal, Québec Canada.. welcome to the NWO.. citizens told to go home before curfew, those who resist will be fined $5000 to $6000. pic.twitter.com/4G3FoAJcnM
— Pelham (@Resist_05) January 2, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
What’s happening is a pandemic power grab by elites who use mass formation psychosis to hypnotize the population through fear into being their subservient slaves.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 23:00 - Disgraced FBI Agents Under Scrutiny In Whitmer Kidnapping Case
Disgraced FBI Agents Under Scrutiny In Whitmer Kidnapping Case
Authored by Ken Silva via The Epoch Times,
The five defendants accused of plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are pushing for more information about the wrongdoing allegedly committed by FBI agents who handled their case.
A federal grand jury has charged six men with conspiring to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer: from top left, Kaleb Franks, Brandon Caserta, Adam Dean Fox, and bottom left, Daniel Harris, Barry Croft, and Ty Garbin, in an indictment released Dec. 17, 2020. (Kent County Sheriff via AP File)
In a flurry of filings on Dec. 31, the defendants in the Whitmer case opposed a motion from federal prosecutors to exclude evidence about FBI agents involved in the investigation. The defendants—Adam Fox, Barry Croft, Kaleb Franks, Daniel Harris, and Brandon Caserta—also sought to admit as evidence 258 statements they believe will prove the FBI entrapped them.
The motions follow the dismissal of one FBI agent in the Whitmer case for beating his wife. Another agent has been accused of perjury in a separate case, and a third was pulled from testifying in the trial after it was revealed that he was operating a private intelligence business while working investigating the defendants.
Federal prosecutors have painted the slew of recent motions by the defendants as a stall tactic that threatens to delay the March 8 trial date. Defense attorneys, however, say the motions are crucial to prove entrapment and protect the rights of their clients.
When it comes to the alleged wrongdoing by investigating FBI agents, the defendants said the Department of Justice has been stonewalling them for more information.
For example, federal prosecutors have called the perjury claims against FBI agent Henrick Impola “unfounded,” but the defense said government hasn’t provided records proving that.
“It is of record that a local attorney has filed a complaint with the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility alleging that Mr. Impola committed perjury in another case,” the defendants said.
“It is not clear why the government won’t disclose the outcome of the investigation into allegations it characterizes as ‘unfounded’ when a simple disclosure could very well clear Mr. Impola’s name and moot this issue in its entirety.”
Likewise, the government has allegedly refused to provide records about the private business of FBI agent Jayson Chambers. BuzzFeed News revealed that Chambers had registered a business called Exeintel, which was linked to Twitter account that posted about the case before it became public.
In its motion to exclude evidence about Exeintel, prosecutors said Chambers’ business had nothing to do with the Whitmer case.
“The BuzzFeed story (and the defendants) implied that SA Chambers leaked confidential law enforcement information in this and/or other cases to an Exeintel-related Twitter user, to drum up business by making the company look prescient,” prosecutors said.
“The defendants have produced no evidence, however, showing SA Chambers had a financial stake in the outcome of this case.”
But the defendants argued otherwise in their Dec. 31 response, saying that Chambers’ business scheme calls into question whether he was investigating the Whitmer case in good faith.
“When an agent, like Chambers, is focused on using his active investigations on behalf of the government as a selling point to make money in his private business, it raises a serious question about whether the agent is conducting the investigations in good faith or is instead motivated to make arrests for personal financial gain,” the defendants said.
As for former agent Richard Trask the defendants agreed with the prosecution that the conviction for beating his wife is irrelevant to anything at issue in their case.
Along with its Dec. 31 filing in response to the government, the defense also made a motion to admit as evidence 258 statements, largely comprising texts and audio recordings. Such statements would generally be considered hearsay and inadmissible as evidence in court, but the defendants argued that the statements should be allowed because they provide a fuller context of the events leading up to their arrest.
For instance, one of the alleged co-conspirators, Ty Garbin, said in a recorded call that “Captain Autism can’t make up his mind”—referring to Fox, the alleged plot leader. The defense said this statement from Garbin—who pleaded guilty and was sentenced to six years imprisonment in August for his role in the plot—is important for multiple reasons
First, Garbin’s statement shows that Fox wasn’t fully committed to the plot, the defense argued.
Moreover, the statement also disproves the notion that Fox was the plot mastermind, as, “The meaning of it lies in the defendants’ recognition that Adam Fox had no actual disposition toward truly committing wrongdoing . . . with a true plan and viability. No one would have conspired with Adam Fox because no one believed he had any ability to form, much less carry out, a plan,” the defense said.
“This statement also demonstrates a lack of predisposition in the entrapment context—no one, even Adam Fox himself—was actually predisposed to make any decisions with regard to possible wrongdoing.”
Prosecutors haven’t responded to the defense’s motion to admit the statements as evidence, but they did oppose numerous motions in a Jan. 4 filing—including an earlier Dec. 25 motion to dismiss, as well as a separate motion to extend filing deadlines.
“The defendants have filed a motion for more time to file more motions. They have already begun recycling the same motions previously denied, and identify no particular legal issues they expect to address given more time,” prosecutors said. “Accommodating their request would either unduly compress the pretrial briefing schedule, or necessitate a third continuance of the trial.”
A motion hearing is scheduled for Jan. 18, followed by a final pretrial conference on Feb. 18 before the March 8 trial.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 22:40 - Thousands Of Cops Deployed To Quell Public Anger In China's Locked Down Xi'an Amid Widespread Food Shortages
Thousands Of Cops Deployed To Quell Public Anger In China’s Locked Down Xi’an Amid Widespread Food Shortages
Tens of thousands of police officers were deployed to China’s Xi’an where public anger has exploded among the city’s 13 million residents who were left bargaining and bartering for essential foodstuffs amid ongoing food shortages, as the city entered its 13th day of lockdown amid a wave of COVID-19 cases.
As some people took to social media to appeal for assistance as their food supplies ran low, or they were unable to access medical care, others started local trading networks in residential compounds to try to meet each other’s needs through bartering.
“Everything is getting bartered in Xi’an,” a resident of the city told RFA. “People are swapping stuff with others in the same building, because they no longer have enough food to eat.” Another resident said in a video clip that some people were trading cigarettes and iPhones for bags of rice.
“We now have a barter system in our residential compound,” the man says in the clip. “We had a bag of rice, and the neighbor wanted to trade … a smartphone and a tablet.”
“We have six bags of rice in our home but no vegetables.”
According to Radio Free Asia, authorities in the northern Chinese city of Xi’an have called for calm, as many in Xi’an are taking to social media complaining that they were unable to get sufficient food supplies after being ordered to stay in their homes.
To contain any civil unrest, city authorities have deployed around 29,000 police officers to enforce the lockdown, while countless local security guards are preventing people from entering or leaving areas designated high or medium risk. One video clip that made the rounds on social media showed security guards beating a teenager in the lobby of a building because he went out to buy steamed buns.
“I was hungry, so I came out to get some mantou,” the youngster is heard telling the guards, who beat and kick him, knocking his food to the ground. City authorities later said the guards had been punished.
Residents were initially told they would be allowed to send a designated person to buy groceries every other day, but many have since told RFA that the security guards in many areas aren’t allowing anyone to leave.
Those who can make it out to buy supplies are finding that prices have skyrocketed, especially of fresh fruit and vegetables, despite a well publicized effort by the government and volunteers to bring fresh produce into the city in large quantities to hand out to beleaguered residents.
One video clip posted to social media showed a man who said he had paid around 40 yuan for 10 capsicum peppers, the same amount for six tomatoes and 40 yuan for two cabbages.
“The vegetable vendor must be making a fortune,” the man complains, while showing his haul to friends.
State media, which is tightly controlled by the ruling Communist Party, reported on a line of trucks hauling a selection of vegetables, fresh fruit and pork belly into residential households in one part of the city on Dec. 29, delivering fresh food to around 180 households.
But the address given in the news report was tracked down by social media users, who discovered it was a residential compound for employees of the Shaanxi Provincial People’s Congress and the Xi’an municipal government, prompting a public outcry on social media.
A Xi’an resident surnamed Song said the food given to the families of officials looked luxurious compared with what regular people are getting: “They were spoiled for choice when it comes vegetables,” Song said. “Where can regular people find stuff like that?”
“I managed to get one head of Chinese leaves, a zucchini, four bell peppers, three heads of garlic, a piece of ginger, two scallions and three potatoes,” she said.
According to the Shaanxi provincial government, a total of 41,000 police officers have been dispatched to Xi’an to maintain public order, with 29,000 of those deployed to Xi’an, 20,352 of whom are working in residential compounds. Some 4,000 are operating traffic roadblocks, while others are guarding hotels or COVID-19 testing sites.
A Shaanxi scholar who gave the surname Tian said the government’s top priority in times of crisis is always maintaining public order and social stability, rather than looking after the needs of ordinary people.
“They have been building up the stability maintenance system ever since 2004,” Tian said. “They say there are only 40,000 police officers in Xi’an, but actually there are many more [security personnel] who aren’t police, including neighborhood committees and security in charge of buildings.”
“There are also village officials and their teams and so on,” he said.
Commentator Han Dapeng said the lockdown doesn’t appear to be preventing the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, however.
“They used this total lockdown method on Wuhan last year, but Omicron is still going strong,” Han said. “Yet the rates of fatality and severe disease are both very low.”
“I don’t think this Xi’an lockdown is about disease prevention,” he said. “It’s more about controlling the population.”
State news agency Xinhua reported that China had 161 confirmed cases of COVID-19 nationwide on Monday, 101 of which were locally transmitted.
New cases in Xi’an fell to their lowest in a week, health officials said Sunday, as the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) pursues a “zero COVID” approach involving tight border restrictions and swift, targeted lockdowns.
Zhang Canyou of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that several rounds of testing in Xi’an had showed there are “some positive changes” in case numbers, which have dipped since the lockdown began.
Meanwhile, to contain speculation that Beijing is only enforcing lockdowns “to control the population”, amid the widespread outcry about the draconian lockdown measures, the official local news platform of Xi’an said a hospital’s wrongdoings amid the lockdown led to miscarriage of a pregnant woman and requires the hospital “to compensate and apologize.” And just to make everything better, the hospital’s general manager was suspended and two department heads fired.
Liu Shunzhi, head of the city’s health commission, received a warning from the Communist Party for malpractice in emergency treatment during the Covid outbreak. It wasn’t clear just what the “malpractice” was.
And just like that everything in Xi’an is back to abnormal.
Oh, and then just a few moments ago, this hit: China’s Xian Xianyang International Airport Suspends All International Passenger Flights From Jan 5. Because things are clearly under control.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 22:20 - Big Left-Wing 'Dark Money' Groups Fund Schumer's Secretive Anti-Filibuster Ally
Big Left-Wing ‘Dark Money’ Groups Fund Schumer’s Secretive Anti-Filibuster Ally
Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,
Fix Our Senate, the obscure outfit leading a coalition of 70 liberal advocacy groups backing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) anti-filibuster drive, is a left-wing “dark-money pop-up,” according to a political nonprofit finance expert.
“Fix Our Senate may present itself as a standalone, grassroots activist group, but it’s actually a front for the Sixteen Thirty Fund, itself part of a $1.7 billion left-wing ‘dark- money pop-up’ empire run by the shadowy consulting firm Arabella Advisors,” said Capital Research Center (CRC) senior investigative researcher Hayden Ludwig.
“We call these fronts ‘pop-ups’ because they’re websites which pop into existence, run attack campaigns, and disappear in an instant and almost never reveal their connection to Arabella or its nonprofits,” Ludwig told The Epoch Times on Jan. 4.
The CRC is a conservative nonpartisan foundation that specializes in tracking trends among the most influential charities, nonprofits, and special-interest groups affecting the public policy process in the nation’s capital.
“We study unions, environmentalist groups, and a wide variety of nonprofit and activist organizations. We also keep an eye on crony capitalists who seek to profit by taking advantage of government regulations and by getting their hands on taxpayers’ money,” CRC says of its purpose on its website.
Schumer promised earlier this week to seek a vote by Jan. 17 on abolishing or reforming the filibuster—the Senate’s “cloture” rule that requires 60 votes to end debate and vote on a proposal—if Senate Republicans block consideration of two election reform packages that are top priorities of the Democrats’ progressive, or far-left, faction.
Republicans argue the reforms—the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the Freedom to Vote Act—severely limit or eliminate entirely the use of photo IDs and related ballot security measures, and require that all proposed changes to state election laws have prior Department of Justice (DOJ) approval.
Measures such as strengthening voter identification requirements are highly popular with the public, with recent surveys by Rasmussen, Monmouth, Pew, and AP-NORC finding 72 to 80 percent support for requiring photo IDs to vote.
Fix Our Senate describes itself as a “coalition of more than 70 organizations (and counting) representing millions of Americans fighting to eliminate the filibuster and fix the Senate so our elected officials can finally start delivering on their promises.”
While no individuals are identified as officials on Fix Our Senate’s website, Eli Zupnick is identified by The Hill as a “spokesman.”
He’s cited as praising Schumer for making “the choice clear: Senate Democrats must now choose between protecting our democracy or stubbornly preserving an outdated and abused Senate rule.”
The Epoch Times received no response to its questions submitted through the “Press Inquiries” contact form on the Fix Our Senate website by press time. Zupnick, who identifies himself with Fix Our Senate on his Twitter profile page, didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.
He’s the former longtime communications director for Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), working for her in various positions from 2009 until 2019. He also was briefly in 2019 the managing principal for Precision Strategies, a Washington and New York City political consulting and marketing firm co-founded by Stephanie Cutter, who identifies herself as the former deputy campaign manager for President Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign.
Among the 70 organizations participating in the Fix Our Senate coalition are the American Muslim Civil Rights Center, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), Equal Justice Society, Faith in Public Life, Friends of the Earth, League of Conservation Voters, Peoples’ Action, Right to Health Action, and United We Dream. Many of the participating groups are locally focused activists groups such as the Long Beach Alliance for Clean Energy and Mid-Ohio Valley Climate Action.
Many of the coalition members, whether nationally or locally focused, share one thing in common—significant funding from the Sixteen Thirty/Arabella Fund dark money network, according to Ludwig.
“Because Fix Our Senate and other ‘pop-ups’ aren’t real nonprofits, they don’t file IRS Form 990 disclosures or publicly report their budgets, boards, or lobbying–making it impossible to trace their donors,” Ludwig explained.
“Instead, all that money moves through the Sixteen Thirty Fund, itself created and managed by the for-profit company Arabella Advisors as a way for liberal mega-donors to quietly fund many of the Left’s most extreme causes.”
Ludwig said CRC has “traced about $10 million flowing from Arabella’s network funded by anonymous liberal donors to signatories on Fix Our Senate’s anti-filibuster coalition.”
Prospects for the success of the Schumer/Fix Our Senate campaign to abolish or reform the Senate filibuster suffered a major blow on Jan. 4, when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) told reporters that he worries that “being open to a rules change that would create a nuclear option, it’s very, very difficult. It’s a heavy lift.”
With the Senate split 50-50, the loss of even one Democratic vote on a filibuster reform proposal would be fatal unless 11 Republicans would then be willing to join the effort, which is highly unlikely.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) also has spoken publicly against revising the filibuster process, and a senior congressional GOP source who asked not to be named told The Epoch Times on Jan. 3 that “at least a couple of other Democrat senators will oppose it if Schumer forces a vote.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 22:00 - Manhattan Apartment Sales Record Best Fourth Quarter In Three Decades
Manhattan Apartment Sales Record Best Fourth Quarter In Three Decades
For the last quarter of 2021, bargain hunters rushed to purchase apartments in Manhattan. Home sales in the borough reached a fourth-quarter record even though the Omicron variant scare has slowed the back-to-office return in the city.
Appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate released a new report Tuesday that highlighted 3,559 co-ops and condos were sold in the fourth quarter of 2021, the most sales for the quarter going back three decades. The average price for an apartment sold jumped 11% to $1.17 million compared with the same quarter a year ago.
The buying frenzy began in early 2021 as bargain hunters purchased apartments at a pandemic discount while thousands of Manhattanites in 2020 fled the metro area to suburbia because of pandemic lockdowns and violent crime.
Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, believes the buying frenzy will continue through the first half of this year.
“For the next several quarters, we’re going to see above-average sales activity and that is going to go a long way to bring down inventory levels,” Miller said.
“One of the things that has differentiated the Manhattan market with the rest of the country has been that it was late to the party, and the city’s boom in activity really started at the beginning of 2021,” he added.
Supply is down 25% from a year earlier to 6,207 apartments in the borough. This was the most significant annual reduction in seven years. Supply remains elevated, but bidding wars are starting to pick up — the share of apartments sold above ask was 9.2%, the highest since early 2018.
A separate report on the borough’s real estate market, released by Bess Freedman, chief executive officer at brokerage Brown Harris Stevens, showed tightening inventory is pushing home values higher and could suggest 2022 will be another banner year.
“The good news is that the foreign buyer has returned, Wall Street bonuses are incredible and we have a new mayor, which all bodes well,” Freedman said. “Now, because pricing has ticked up a bit, it could slow things down with mortgage rates going up, but we’ll have to see.”
However, not all is rosy in the metro area. NYC Mayor Eric Adams has already promised to keep 1M+ students attending classes in person at the Big Apple’s public schools. Wall Street megabanks – including JPM and Goldman Sachs – are delaying their employees’ return to the office because of the Omicron scare.
Kastle Systems, whose electronic access systems secure thousands of office buildings across NYC, showed only 10.61% of workers were back at their desks in late December, compared with 37% on Dec. 2.
A lopsided recovery appears to be playing out. Housing could be recovering, but the overall recovery will sputter without workers in office buildings.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 21:40 - Florida Surgeon General: If You Have No Symptoms, Please Don't Get Tested
Florida Surgeon General: If You Have No Symptoms, Please Don’t Get Tested
Authored by Jannis Falkenstern via The Epoch Times,
Florida’s Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo issued new guidance for COVID-19 tests on Jan. 4 in a bid to reduce the strain on the state’s testing centers.
So many people are using the centers the availability of tests is under pressure.
“We are going to scale back,” Ladapo told reporters at a press conference.
“We’re coming back to something sensible.”
People have been flooding Florida testing sites, leading to long lines, he said.
Instead of restricting testing, however, Ladapo said he would place a new emphasis on “high-value” testing against those of “low-value” in order to give priority to tests that would “likely change outcomes” based on a positive or negative result.
For example, someone who is elderly with pre-existing medical conditions and is having symptoms he regards as high value.
Someone who is otherwise healthy with no pre-existing medical issues and with no symptoms is low value, he explained.
Ladapo said people need to get back to a “sense of normalcy” in society.
“We need to unwind this sort of planning and living one’s life around testing,” Ladapo said.
“It’s really time for people to be living; to make the decisions they want regarding vaccination; to enjoy the fact that many people have natural immunity; and to unwind this preoccupation with only COVID as determining the boundaries and constraints and possibilities of life.
“And we’re going to start that in Florida.”
Ladapo said Omicron is “on the rise” in Florida and cases are “vertically climbing,” but people are being “whipped into a frenzy” over it and there is no need because the variant is “much less violent” than other variants that have spawned from the COVID-19 virus.
“What you’re seeing in cases is actually just a fraction of what’s happening in the community,” he said. “For example, the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] estimates that only one in four cases of COVID are diagnosed, that may be an even bigger ratio with Omicron.”
He said that Florida has seen a rapid increase in cases and hospitalizations, but added it is not comparable to the case rise.
“A substantial share, based on the data we have from some of our hospitals of the patients in hospitals with COVID, are there in the hospital with COVID rather than for COVID.”
In other words, people who go to the hospital are there for other reasons and then test positive for COVID-19 because hospitals test everyone who comes for treatment, Ladapo said.
A health care worker use a nasal swab to test Marcelino Soto for COVID-19 at a pop up testing site at the Koinonia Worship Center and Village in Pembroke Park, Fla., on July 22, 2020. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
The surgeon general said that federal leadership had “created a monster” in public health.
“What’s happened in the country is that people have forgotten, or abandoned basic public health principles,” he said.
“Instead, they have opted for things that are anti-public health.”
He said anti-public health is “taking away people’s options” and “ability to choose.”
“Anti-health tends to be mandates,” he continued. “Anti-public health is losing touch with sensibility.”
The Surgeon General’s office wants to educate and provide people with the ability to make “better decisions.”
“That’s what public health used to be,” Ladapo said.
“The federal approach has been to mandate and to create division and strife and really politicize this pandemic.”
Getting back to basic principles of public health is important, he said and part of that is prevention such as weight loss, exercise, and vitamin intake.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was present at the press conference and said COVID-19 tests have turned into “a testing industrial company” and are a “cash cow” for people.
“There’s people making huge amounts of money,” he said of the COVID-19 testing companies.
DeSantis urged everyone to live their lives like they did before the pandemic.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 21:20 - $100 Million F-35 Jet Forced To Do Emergency 'Belly Landing' In Alarming First
$100 Million F-35 Jet Forced To Do Emergency ‘Belly Landing’ In Alarming First
“I’m very surprised the emergency gear down systems didn’t work, or weren’t used,” a top regional military analyst and former air force officer told CNN after a $100 million US-designed stealth fighter was forced to do a “belly landing” after its landing gear failed to deploy.
It happened in South Korea on Tuesday, when a F-35A jet fighter suffered “avionic system issues” and the South Korean pilot didn’t eject, but instead came in on the plane’s belly, with emergency crews below having deployed a special foam on the runway to minimize damage to the aircraft.
Via Lockheed Martin/Straits Times: “South Korea ordered 40 F-35A variants from its American maker Lockheed Martin in 2014, receiving the first batch five years later.” It’s alarming given the ultra-costly F-35 stealth fighter is supposed to be cutting edge, having been transferred to over a dozen US allied countries.
According to more details by Air Force Magazine:
The emergency landing occurred around 1 p.m. local time at a South Korean base in Seosan, some 70 kilometers from Osan Air Base. According to media reports, it is the first known instance of a belly landing by an F-35 since the U.S. began selling the fifth-generation fighter to partner nations.
South Korean officials have reportedly said they are suspending flights for all its air force’s 30-plus F-35 fighters while it investigates the emergency landing.
Amid an ongoing investigation into the incident, South Korean military officials have not confirmed the extent of damage, but described, “The jet did an emergency landing as the landing gear did not extend. This would mean the jet did the ‘belly landing,'”
A May 2020 crash landing happened with a US Air Force pilot in the advanced fighter at a base in Florida, while partner nations have also endured a growing number of mechanical and other failures in the aircraft:
There have been other incidents involving allies and partners in the F-35 program—members of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force have had to make at least seven emergency landings in F-35s, news agency Nikkei reported. There was also a nighttime crash into the ocean in April 2019 that killed a Japanese pilot.
More recently, a British F-35B crashed just after takeoff from an aircraft carrier in November 2021, falling into the Mediterranean Sea.
South Korea grounds F-35 fleet after malfunction forces ‘belly landing’ ✈️🇰🇷🇺🇸 Don’t buy American airplanes. #Lockheed #Boeing https://t.co/9d6zCFuBnP
— Spencer Wells (@spwells) January 5, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
In this latest incident, the South Korean pilot is being hailed for his skills given the extreme difficulty of a belly landing scenario in such a jet.
“A gear-up landing on the F-35 may be quite difficult and dangerous because of the angle of attack the aircraft has on approach to touchdown,” David Cenciotti, who runs the The Aviationist blog described.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 21:00 - Taibbi: Meet Jed Rakoff, The Judge Who Exposed The "Rigged Game"
Taibbi: Meet Jed Rakoff, The Judge Who Exposed The “Rigged Game”
Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,
On November 27, 2011, a federal judge named Jed Rakoff threw out a $285 million regulatory settlement between Citigroup and the Securities and Exchange Commission, blasting it as “neither fair, nor reasonable, nor adequate, nor in the public interest.” The S.E.C. and Citigroup were stunned. Expecting to see their malodorous deal wrapped up, the parties were instead directed “to be ready to try this case” the following summer.
Jed Rakoff Try a case? Was the judge kidding? A pattern had long ago been established in which mega-companies like Citigroup that were implicated in serious offenses would be let off with slaps on the wrist, by soft-touch regulators who expected judges to play ball. These officials in many cases were private sector hotshots doing temporary tours as regulators, denizens of the revolving door biding time before parachuting back into lucrative corporate defense jobs. A judge who refused to sign the settlements such folks engineered was derailing everyone’s gravy train.
Citigroup had replicated a scheme employed by numerous big banks of the era, helping construct a “born to lose” portfolio of rotten mortgage securities to be unloaded on customer-dupes, who were unaware the bank intended to bet against them. A similar case involving a Goldman, Sachs deal called “Abacus” had concluded the previous year with a hefty fine, but, infamously, no admission of wrongdoing.
In the Citigroup version, the bank earned $160 million in profits, customers lost $700 million, and the S.E.C. wanted to impose a $285 million fine. As noted by papers like the Washington Post at the time, the S.E.C.’s logic was to ask the bank to return the money ($160 million plus interest equaled $190 million) and pay a $95 million civil penalty on top.
Citigroup that quarter alone earned $3.8 billion in profits, which meant the S.E.C. proposed to charge the bank — which had been functionally bankrupt in 2008 and was booming again thanks to a massive public bailout, engineered in part by former Citi officials by the way — a fee of 2.5% of its quarterly profits. In a country where an ordinary schlub could get multiple years in prison for something like third-degree attempted theft of a car, seeking no individual penalties and asking shareholders to forego a tiny fraction of earnings as restitution for stealing $160 million was a joke.
The fine was “pocket change to any entity as large as Citigroup,” noted Rakoff, in a blistering 15-page opinion. Objecting to the practice of allowing corporate crooks to walk away without admission of wrongdoing, he noted that Citigroup had already begun asserting its right to deny the allegations, both in litigation and to the media. This, he said, left the public despairing “of ever knowing the truth in a matter of obvious public importance.”
Such a policy, he concluded, would reduce the court to “a mere handmaiden to a settlement privately negotiated on the basis of unknown facts.” And, well, screw that.
There was cheering in the legal community and even in the press (“Judge Jed Rakoff Courageously Rejects SEC-Citigroup Settlement” was the Post headline) for a few minutes. Then came the inevitable plot twist. Citigroup and the S.E.C., robber and cop, joined together to appeal the decision, forcing Rakoff to retain counsel. Before long, Rakoff was overturned. An appeals court judge ruled he had stepped out of bounds by demanding the “truth” behind allegations, saying “consent decrees are primarily about pragmatism.”
The original dirty deal was re-routed back to Rakoff, who was then forced by the appeals court to approve it. “That court has now fixed the menu, leaving this court with nothing but sour grapes,” Rakoff wrote in a succinct but seething opinion, adding one parting warning:
This court fears that, as a result of the Court of Appeal’s decision, the settlements reached by governmental regulatory bodies and enforced by the judiciary’s contempt powers will in practice be subject to no meaningful oversight whatsoever.
The symbolism of the Rakoff episode was striking. Citigroup had been created by something like the ultimate insider deal. The merger of Citicorp and the insurance conglomerate Travelers had been struck in the late nineties despite apparently conflicting with several laws, including the Glass-Steagall Act and the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956.
The merger to create the first American “supermarket bank” only happened because a temporary waiver was granted by Alan Greenspan’s Federal Reserve. This held up in time for Bill Clinton to sign a bipartisan piece of legislation called the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, sanctifying the deal after the fact. Former Clinton Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin then skedaddled to a job at the new super-bank that Citi itself described as having “no line responsibilities,” but nonetheless would go on to earn Rubin $115 million, a transaction that grossed out even the Wall Street Journal.
Thus the way the S.E.C. and the Appellate Courts essentially joined hands with this particular firm to strike down Rakoff’s ruling was a graphic demonstration of the self-defense capability of what one former Senate aide I know calls “The Blob,” i.e. the matrix of interconnected (and, not infrequently, intermarried) lawyers, lobbyists, politicians, and executives who run the country from the Washington-New York corridor. I don’t think it’s an accident that politicians in both parties, ranging from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump, began scoring political points by talking about the “rigged game” just after Rakoff’s Capra-esque gesture was overturned. What did Rakoff himself think?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 20:40 - Sony Is Joining The EV Race
Sony Is Joining The EV Race
Move over, Tesla, Apple, and other “not just a car company” entrants into the EV market: Sony is joining the race.
At CES 2022, Sony announced it would set up subsidiary called Sony Mobility Inc. to focus on electric vehicles, Nikkei reported overnight. They also unveiled a new SUV prototype vehicle, about two years after announcing its first plans for EVs and its first sedan prototype.
The SUV prototype is called the Vision-S 02.
Sony Chairman Kenichiro Yoshida commented: “The excitement we received after we showed off the Vision-S really encouraged us to further consider how we can bring creativity and technology to change the experience of moving from one place to another.”
“I’m excited to announce we are establishing a new company for mobility, Sony Mobility Inc., to accelerate these efforts, and we are exploring a commercial launch of Sony’s EVs,” he continued.
The company’s Vision-S 01 sedan sports two 200 kW electric motors and Level 2 autonomy, according to the report. It began testing on public roads in 2021 and its EV platform was manufactured by Magna Steyr with parts from Bosch.
EV is still a vision that the company is considered pursuing, according to follow up reporting from The Verge, who made it sound as though follow-through still isn’t a guarantee.
“We are exploring a commercial launch of Sony’s EV,” Yoshida said, to find out how a “creative entertainment company” can “redefine mobility.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 20:20 - What Spooked Markets So Badly In Today's Fed Minutes? JPMorgan, Goldman Explain
What Spooked Markets So Badly In Today’s Fed Minutes? JPMorgan, Goldman Explain
Considering that today’s minutes covered a FOMC meeting that took place some three weeks ago, with numerous Fed speakers having ample opportunity to set the stage for what was to come (talk about those famous Fed “communication” skills), it is rather shocking how powerful and violent today’s stock tantrum was.
But what exactly spooked traders so badly?
Well, as JPM Michael Feroli writes in his FOMC post-mortem, the minutes portray “a Committee on the march toward removing policy accommodation” which is not a surprise to anyone except perhaps the biggest cubic zirconium hands out in Seoul. Regarding the expected path of policy rates the minutes note that meeting participants generally see rate hikes “sooner or at a faster pace” than previously expected. Of course, this too had already been hinted at by the dots released after the meeting.
What was new in these minutes, and was also unexpectedly hawkish, were the clues given to how balance sheet normalization would play out. While most favored allowing assets to run off after the first rate hike, it was generally thought that this runoff would occur sooner after liftoff relative to the 2014-17 episode. Moreover, it was generally felt that the pace of runoff would be faster than the last experience: as a reminder, last time it took two years between the first rate hike and the beginning of balance-sheet contraction (see excerpt below) so the Fed is now hinting that it could shorten this to less than nine months so that runoff begins in 2022… or at least that’s how the market reads it.
And the other big surprise is that some on the Committee felt that tightening financial conditions by relying more on balance sheet runoff and less on rate hikes would help steepen the curve, a desirable outcome in their opinion, though it’s not clear this was a widely-shared view, especially considering the catastrophic conclusion to the Fed’s tapering in Sept 2019 when JPMorgan had to crash to repo market to force the Fed to launch Not QE (narrator: it was QE) when the financial system promptly ran out of reserves. Here is the section in question:
Some participants commented that removing policy accommodation by relying more on balance sheet reduction and less on increases in the policy rate could help limit yield curve flattening during policy normalization. A few of these participants raised concerns that a relatively flat yield curve could adversely affect interest margins for some financial intermediaries, which may raise financial stability risks. However, a couple of other participants referenced staff analysis and previous experience in noting that many factors can affect longer-dated yields, making it difficult to judge how a different policy mix would affect the shape of the yield curve.
Many participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode. Many participants also judged that monthly caps on the runoff of securities could help ensure that the pace of runoff would be measured and predictable, particularly given the shorter weighted average maturity of the Federal Reserve’s Treasury security holdings.
Separately, Feroli also notes that “many” also felt the recently-authorized standing repo facility should support faster and smoother balance sheet normalization, and as has been the case recently, “some” participants favored a quicker runoff pace for agency MBS relative to US Treasuries.
There were fewer surprises regarding the Fed’s views on the economy where the staff revised up their inflation forecast for coming years, noting the “salience” of ’21 inflation outcomes. On the labor market, some on the Committee noted that the recovery was already “more inclusive.” In the discussion of the labor force participation rate, the Committee sounded more pessimistic that participation would soon recover, if ever. More generally, “several” thought the labor market was already at maximum employment, and many others thought it would “fast approach” that criterion. It was also noted by “some” participants that liftoff could happen before maximum employment had been reached if inflation expectations appeared to become unanchored.
Commenting on the maximum employment assessment, Bloomberg economist Yelene Shulyatyeba said that “the FOMC participants’ labor-market assessment suggests they see the economy at or very close to full employment. Apart from ‘a number of signs that the U.S. labor market was very tight,’ policy makers also saw little potential for a significant short-term improvement in participation. Therefore, the economy may have achieved full employment earlier and with a smaller labor force than previously foreseen, which implies the need for tighter policy sooner than anticipated.”
We disagree with this for reasons we explained in “A March Rate Hike? Not So Fast“
Finally, while virus variant risks were noted several times, the overall tone of the minutes suggests this was not expected to be a major headwind to the growth outlook.
Shifting from JPM to Goldman’s post-mortem, the bank’s Jan Hatzius cut to the chase and titled his note with the big punchline. namely that “Fed Balance Sheet Runoff Could Start “Relatively Soon” After Liftoff.” Similar to Feroli, this is how he explains it:
The December FOMC minutes indicated that participants continued to view mid-March as an appropriate end date for net asset purchases. The minutes also noted that “some” participants said that it could be appropriate to start runoff “relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate” and “many” participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than last cycle.
In our view, today’s minutes increase the chances that the FOMC might be ready to reach a decision on the runoff process and issue new normalization principles in the second quarter, which could mean that runoff begins somewhat earlier than our standing assumption of Q4. We still expect that the start of runoff will substitute for a quarterly hike, so that the FOMC would still hike 3 times total in 2022 if runoff begins in Q3, but an earlier announcement of the start of runoff would be somewhat less likely to substitute for a hike than one that comes toward the end of the year.
This is all fine and good, and it is certainly far more hawkish than the market expected, but it does raise several questions, as today’s market action indicated.
First, and foremost, back in 2018 when r-star was far higher than it is today, the Fed managed to get away with 8 rate hikes before a 20% drop in stocks forced Powell into a premature easing cycle in the summer of 2019, right around the time the repo crisis emerged and the Fed realized it needs to add far more reserves (and lo and behold 7 months later, we got just the perfect Made in China excuse to inject trillions into the financial system). So the first question is how many rate hikes can the Fed get away with now that global debt is orders of magnitude higher than it was just 4 years ago. 3 hikes? 4 hikes and a run off, before the next big crash forces the Fed into early easing.
Keep a close eye on fwd OIS swaps markets for the tell on when the next rate cut cycle/QE will start.
And tied to that are two more question: while it is clear that Biden is freaking out about inflation far more than he is about the prospect of a market crash, is the president even remotely aware of what a 20%, 30% (or more) crash in the market will do to Democrats in the polls, and midterms, not to mention 2024? Something tells us the answer is no.
Last but not least is the question everyone would like answered: just how is the Fed tightening financial conditions going to ease a historic supply chain collapse which is driven by countless other factors than just excess demand sparked by Biden’s stimmies.
We doubt we will find out the answer, but we also doubt that the market’s latest freak out about much tighter financial conditions – including 3 rate hikes and balance sheet run off starting in 2022 – will ever come to pass. Because if it does, the only question then is how long before the Fed starts monetizing ETFs, cryptos and NFTs to preserve the $145 trillion or so in US net worth parked squarely in the hands of the 1%, the only legacy the US central bank will leave on this earth.
The full JPM and GS reports are available to pro subs in the usual place.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 20:00 - President Biden Called Elizabeth Holmes "Inspiring", Praised Theranos As "Lab Of The Future" In 2015
President Biden Called Elizabeth Holmes “Inspiring”, Praised Theranos As “Lab Of The Future” In 2015
While media coverage of the Elizabeth Holmes trial – and its ensuing guilty verdicts – was robust, there was one part of the Theranos narrative that the media seemed happy to tiptoe around.
That is, of course, Joe Biden’s involvement in the now-defunct and fraudulent blood testing startup.
Among dozens of investigative reports about Theranos and hundreds of articles, somehow, nobody touched upon the fact that Biden praised Holmes in 2015 for “maintaining the highest standards”, as Breitbart pointed out this week.
In fact, then VP Joe Biden met with Elizabeth Holmes in 2015 and called her company “the laboratory of the future”. Theranos was so jazzed about the compliment, it took to social media to post a photo of Biden with Holmes.
A second tweet from Theranos proudly touts another quote from Biden, wherein he says “The POTUS and I share your vision of a health care paradigm focused on prevention”.
At a summit where the two met, Holmes said of Biden: “It is a tremendous honor to have Vice President Biden visit Theranos and participate in a preventive health care summit.”
And the praise from Biden didn’t stop there. Breitbart reports that, after touring Holmes’ facility, Biden said: “You can see what innovation is all about just walking through this facility.”
“The fact that you’re voluntarily submitting all of your tests to the FDA demonstrates your confidence in what you’re doing,” Biden continued. “Talk about being inspired. This is inspiration. It is amazing to me, Elizabeth, what you’ve been able to do.”
In Biden’s defense, he’s hardly the first idealistic liberal to be bamboozled by futuristic sounding nonsense that doesn’t make scientific and/or economic sense. Look at fuel cell companies, wind power projects and promises of solar roof tiles, for starters.
But the one question that begs an answer is: how would the media have reacted if it were a GOP President who had taken meetings with Holmes in 2015? And why were Biden’s comments on Holmes never reported on over the last few years of controversy surrounding the company?
Maybe the answers are on Hunter Biden’s laptop.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 19:40 - The Defenestration Of Dr. Robert Malone
The Defenestration Of Dr. Robert Malone
Commentary authored by John Mac Ghlionn via The Epoch Times,
Dr. Robert Malone is a U.S. virologist and immunologist who has dedicated his professional existence to the development of mRNA vaccines.
In the 1980s, Malone worked as a researcher at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, where he conducted studies on messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology. In the early 1990s, Malone collaborated with Jon A. Wolff and Dennis A. Carson, two eminent scientists, on a study that involved synthesization.
In fact, Malone is the father of mRNA vaccines. He has served as an adjunct associate professor of biotechnology at Kennesaw State University, and he co-founded Atheric Pharmaceutical, a company that was contracted by the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases in 2016.
As you can see, Malone is no ordinary man. In fact, he’s a rather extraordinary man. Before embarking on a distinguished career in science, Malone worked as a carpenter and as a farmhand. Becoming a doctor was a lofty aspiration, but through hard work and determination, his dream became a reality. Over the course of three decades, Malone has established himself as one of the most competent people in the fields of virology and immunology.
Dr. Robert Malone (L) speaks at the Global Covid Summit in Nashville, Tenn., on Dec. 18, 2021. (Courtesy of Global Covid Summit/Screenshot via NTD) Why, then, is he considered “a pariah” (in his own words) by so many of his peers? Why did Twitter recently suspend his account?
Malone is arguably the most qualified person in the world to speak on what we as a society should and shouldn’t be doing during the pandemic. Yet for reasons that will become abundantly clear, he finds himself ostracized, largely silenced, and cut off from the scientific community. Why?
Two months before his Twitter account was suspended, Malone wrote a rather prophetic Twitter post:
“I am going to speak bluntly,” he wrote.
“Physicians who speak out are being actively hunted via medical boards and the press. They are trying to delegitimize us and pick us off one by one.”
He finished by warning that this is “not a conspiracy theory” but “a fact.” He urged us all to “wake up.”
Sadly, many of us are still asleep.
In my research for this piece, it seems clear to me that Malone has been silenced, not because he’s some quack spouting nonsense, but because he challenged—and still challenges—the overarching narrative about vaccines and the lethality of COVID-19.
Malone was recently interviewed by Joe Rogan. For the uninitiated, Rogan is the host of one of the most influential podcasts in the world. At one point during the three-hour interview, Malone referred to Dr. Anthony Fauci as Tony Fauci, a man he knows personally. Malone, in other words, knows where all the skeletons are hidden. The same is true for Dr. Peter McCullough, another world-renowned expert who has appeared on Rogan’s podcast.
Prior to writing this piece, I consulted both Malone and McCullough.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaks during a briefing at the White House on Dec. 1, 2021. (Susan Walsh/AP Photo) Over the course of the past 18 months, Malone has been painted as some kind of anti-vax fringe scientist, a man of questionable merit who’s spouting nonsense.
Well, he’s not. Malone happens to be vaccinated. All he has ever asked for is the chance to have frank and honest discussions on vaccines.
In his own words, vaccines have “saved lives. Many lives.”
“But it is also increasingly clear that there are some risks associated with these vaccines,” Malone said. “Various governments have attempted to deny that this is the case. But they are wrong. Vaccination-associated coagulation is a risk. Cardiotoxicity is a risk. Those are proven and discussed in official USG communications, as well as communications from a variety of other governments.”
Malone isn’t a crazed conspiracy theorist: He’s a man who’s intimately familiar with the benefits and the risks of vaccines. He’s a proponent of informed consent. Perhaps before letting someone inject a vaccine into your body, you should be fully informed of the risks involved, he says. He isn’t an unreasonable man.
Nevertheless, in this age of faux outrage and fabricated storylines, society needs a fall guy, a boogie man, a sacrificial lamb. Malone fits the bill. He knows too much. It’s much easier to discredit a decorated physician—who challenges the overarching narrative—than it is to actually debate him.
Zero Degrees of Separation
The story goes deeper. In 2019, the BBC established the Trusted News Initiative (TNI), a partnership that now includes organizations such as Facebook, Twitter, Reuters, and The Washington Post. We’re told that it was established to tackle “disinformation in real time.” TNI was ostensibly designed to wage a war on “fake news.”
Upon closer inspection, however, it appears to have been designed to promote very specific narratives and to silence any dissenting voices, such as Malone’s. Instead of trusting the TNI, we should question the motives of its members.
After all, The Washington Post recently published a piece asking people to stop criticizing President Joe Biden. The message is clear: Stop being mean to the president, even if the president is being mean to you (on more than one occasion).
Then, there’s James C. Smith, chairman of the Thomson Reuters Foundation. He sits on the board of directors for Pfizer, a company that’s responsible for the creation of vaccines with questionable efficacy and that has a history of manipulating data. In short, Pfizer is a company with a questionable reputation. Nevertheless, Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla was recently named CNN’s Business CEO of the Year. Make of that what you will.
When one thinks of TNI (and the mainstream media in general), various terms instantly spring to mind. “Objectivity” isn’t one of them. “Highly compromised” and “conflict of interest” do come to mind, however.
Speaking of objectivity, or the lack thereof, in August 2021, The Atlantic ran a much-cited hit piece on Malone, which was high on accusations, but low on actual evidence. It attacked his character and credibility—repeatedly. Rather intriguingly, the article, like all of The Atlantic’s COVID-19 articles, was funded by the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
The former is an organization established and owned by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation owns stock in Johnson & Johnson, a company whose vaccine has been associated with the development of blood clots—the very thing Malone has been warning us about for the better part of two years.
People might scoff. But contrary to popular belief, democracy doesn’t die in darkness. It dies in broad daylight. Its death is slow and protracted, one by a thousand cuts rather than by one fatal stab.
As author Steve Levitsky once wrote, democracies don’t often die at the hands of military generals, “but of elected leaders—presidents or prime ministers who subvert the very process that brought them to power.”
“One of the great ironies of how democracies die is that the very defense of democracy is often used as a pretext for its subversion,” he wrote. “Would-be autocrats often use economic crises, natural disasters, and especially security threats—wars, armed insurgencies, or terrorist attacks—to justify antidemocratic measures.”
Apply these lines to the pandemic, and Levitsky’s words carry more weight than ever before.
In the United States, one must not question the efficacy of masks, vaccines for kids, the logic (or lack thereof) of lockdowns, or the unconstitutional nature of vaccine mandates. What about the little matter of vaccine breakthrough deaths? Don’t ask any questions.
But wait, if science can’t be questioned, doesn’t this make it propaganda? Hush now. Don’t you love America? Don’t you want people to live, rather than die? Then shut up and get the vaccine, then the booster shot, then the booster-booster shot. We, the arbiters of truth, know what’s best for you. Somewhat ironically, these self-appointed arbiters of truth spout no shortage of lies.
Is it any surprise, then, that more and more Americans continue to lose faith in the mainstream media and the government? Yet here we are, being condescended to by the likes of CNN’s Don Lemon and MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace. Worse still, we’re supposed to take orders from Fauci, a man who supposedly represents science, yet goes out of his way to smear scientists. Why would a man of science attack the very thing that he’s supposed to represent?
A stock photo of social media platform icons in a mobile device. (Pixabay/Pexels) According to numerous reports, Fauci has repeatedly deceived the American people. It’s important to remember that Fauci is, first and foremost, a talking head for the U.S. government. In reality, he’s a politician with a medical degree.
To quote the author Gillian Flynn, the author of “Gone Girl”: “The truth is malleable; you just need to pick the right expert.”
Who better than Fauci, a highly qualified individual with his own fan club? But don’t be fooled. Fauci might act like he answers to no one, but he does. He answers to the U.S. government. Who, then, does the government answer to? Big Pharma, it seems.
In 2019, the Roosevelt Institute published a fascinating report, “The Cost of Capture: How the Pharmaceutical Industry has Corrupted Policy Makers and Harmed Patients.” The report outlines the many ways in which the pharmaceutical industry has shaped policies through corporate capture. This is a phenomenon that sees private industries use their significant financial and political influence to manipulate a state’s decision-making apparatus. The report warned about the dangers of lobbying and of deeply flawed medical research.
What we’re seeing is the convergence of Big Pharma, Big Tech, and Big Government. Let’s call it the unholy trinity, with Big Tech doing the bidding of Big Government, and Big Government doing the bidding of Big Pharma.
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, YouTube has removed the Joe Rogan episodes featuring Robert Malone and Peter McCullough. Why? Because when it comes to viruses and vaccines, these are among the most notable and accomplished experts in the world. They appear to know things that the government doesn’t want us to know. Additionally, Google, the owner of YouTube, appears to be closely involved with the U.S. government.
What we’re left with is the equivalent of a digital dictatorship, with even the most qualified people being silenced, ostracized, and, in some cases, defenestrated. Robert Malone is a wise man, an honest man, and a highly credible man. The grief that has come his way—and continues to come his way to this day—is unwarranted. But as he knows only too well, this is the price one must pay for challenging the unholy trinity.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 19:20 - Ningbo Port Activity Grinds To A Halt As China Outbreak Worsens
Ningbo Port Activity Grinds To A Halt As China Outbreak Worsens
After authorities found more COVID cases in Ningbo, a port city and industrial hub home to one of the world’s largest ports, residents are facing a partial lockdown, and reports claim that movement of essential products has been dramatically slowed as the lockdown measures slow activity at the port.
Beijing has managed to keep reports about the situation mostly under wraps, but reports in Bloomberg and several trade journals have warned that the slowdowns at the port could have wide-ranging ramifications for international commerce.
Right now, lockdowns are affecting Xi’an and Yuzhou along with the Ningbo port, Chinese sources said. In Yuzhou, which has a population of 1.1M, authorities shut down its transport system and all but essential food stores closed overnight.
The strict lockdown measures come as Beijing braces for both the Winter Olympics and the Lunar New Year. With exactly a month to go until the Games start, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin assured reporters China had “formulated an efficient and highly effective defense system”.
Part of this system will involve thousands of staff and volunteers entering a bubble on Tuesday, which will see them have no physical contact with the outside world in order to limit the spread.
Athletes and members of the press who cover the Games will also enter the bubble on arrival in China, where they will remain for the duration of their stay.
In Yuzhou, situated some some 434 miles south-west of Beijing, officials said that “to curb and quash the epidemic within the shortest amount of time is a high-priority political task” for the local government.
Some people pointed out that the CCP’s lockdown measures might actually be making the situation worse: “People are swapping stuff with others in the same building, because they no longer have enough food to eat,” one man who spoke with Radio Free Asia on the condition of anonymity said.
The news outlet also reported that another man had wanted to trade a smartphone and tablet for rice, according to the BBC.
What Beijing calls its “dynamic zero COVID” strategy combines mass vaccinations with a regime of constant testing, nationwide monitoring of people’s movements, temperature-taking and smartphone apps to prove individuals don’t pose a threat. This hyper-vigilance has left doctors exhausted.
Perhaps this is why the activity at the Ningbo port has slowed: one trade journal covering the business of commerce said that while no COVID cases have been reported at any of the port’s three container terminals, closures at warehouses and the container depot, as well as trucking disruptions, have made it difficult for manufacturers and suppliers to get their goods from the port, or to the port.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 19:00 - Finally, Bloomberg Admits Renewables Mania Caused Energy Shortages
Finally, Bloomberg Admits Renewables Mania Caused Energy Shortages
Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,
Between 2017 and 2021, Environmental Progress and I researched and published dozens of articles, testified before Congress, and authored a book, Apocalypse Never, arguing that weather-dependent renewables were making electricity increasingly unreliable and expensive, and making the United States, Europe, and Asia, dangerously dependent on natural gas.
In response, there was an organized and somewhat successful effort by progressive climate-renewables activists to cut off our funding, censor us on Facebook, and prevent me from testifying before Congress.
But now, one of the biggest boosters of natural gas and renewables, media giant Bloomberg, whose owner, Michael Bloomberg, is directly invested in natural gas and renewables, has published an article conceding and substantiating almost every single point we have made over the years. “Europe Sleepwalked Into an Energy Crisis That Could Last Years,” screams the headline. The article concludes that the crisis was “years in the making” because Europe is “shutting down coal-fired electricity plants and increasing its reliance on renewables.”
Bloomberg still pulls its punches and misdescribes the situation in some ways. The article, like many other Bloomberg articles, mislabels the deployment of renewables as an “energy transition” similar to past transitions from wood to coal and coal to natural gas, failing to acknowledge that the poor physics of energy-dilute renewables make that impossible. And it suggests that Europe’s energy crisis is the result of ignorance. “The energy crisis hit the bloc,” notes a renewable energy PR person, “when security of supply was not on the menu of EU policymakers,” ignoring the reality that I and others warned EU policymakers of this very crisis.
But, to its credit, the article acknowledges that the energy crisis is a direct result of Europe over-investing in unreliable renewables and under-investing in reliable energy sources. “Wind and solar are cleaner but sometimes fickle,” the authors admit, in the understatement of the year, “as illustrated by the sudden drop in turbine-generated power the continent recorded last year.” (I was the first U.S. journalist to report Germany saw its emissions rise 25% in the first half of 2021 due to lack of wind.)
Now, a new analysis from Environmental Progress finds Germany increased its emissions last year and will likely increase them again this year. This year, German electricity generation coming from fossil fuels will be 44% compared to 39% in 2021 and 37 percent in 2020, assuming weather conditions and electricity demand are similar to 2021. Emissions from Germany’s power sector will rise from 244 million tons in 2021 to 264 million tons in 2022.
And Bloomberg notes that Europe is in a full-blown energy crisis.
“The retired salt caverns, aquifers, and fuel depots that hold Europe’s stockpiles of natural gas have never been so empty at this point in winter,” it notes, and “the continent is grappling with a supply crunch that’s caused benchmark gas prices to more than quadruple from last year’s levels, squeezing businesses and households. The crisis has left the European Union at the mercy of the weather and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wiles, both notoriously difficult to predict.”
It’s true that American natural gas from fracking, a practice I have defended since 2013, is being shipped to Europe, and will ease Europe’s pain. And it hasn’t helped that France’s leaders have grossly mismanaged their nuclear power plants, resulting in an embarrassing 30% decline in their output during the crisis.
But, notes Bloomberg, the relief provided by American liquified natural gas (LNG) is “temporary at best…. Storage sites [for natural gas] are only 56% full, more than 15 percentage points below the 10-year average… Barring an increase in Russian exports, something that doesn’t appear to be in the cards, levels will be at less than 15% by the end of March, the lowest on record… With the two coldest months of winter still ahead, the fear is that Europe may run out of gas.”
And the lack of nuclear energy underscores the need for more nuclear plants since they are reliable and operate independently of the weather when they are managed well. No matter how well a solar farm is managed, it can’t change the weather.
And now, Russia is massing troops on its border with Ukraine, and may invade. This is a problem since one-third of Russian gas going into Europe goes through Ukraine. If war breaks out, Europe could suffer serious gas shortages. Overdependence on natural gas and renewables, and underinvestment in nuclear, has thus undermined the energy security, and thus national security, of Europe, since heads of state dependent on Russian gas will be less likely to speak out against an invasion.
Even longtime natural gas and renewable energy boosters agree there’s a crisis. “The ability of Europe and the U.S. to respond to a Russian invasion is constrained both by a desire not to exacerbate Europe’s energy crisis by sanctioning Russian energy exports and, more broadly, by the threat that Russia could retaliate to any confrontation by restricting gas flows into Europe, as Russia did in 2006 and 2009,” Jason Bordoff, a former Obama administration official, told Bloomberg.
Covid accelerated many trends and one of them is the recognition that unreliable and weather-dependent renewables cannot power modern economies. Senator Joe Manchin specifically mentioned the role that renewables are playing in making America’s electricity less reliable when he killed Build Back Better legislation in December. The Netherlands mentioned the need for reliable electricity when it announced plans to expand nuclear energy.
Now, with New England at grave risk of energy shortages for the exact same reasons as Europe, it’s time for the American people and their representatives to fully wake up to the reality that modern societies cannot rely on unreliable renewables. It would also help if the renewable energy industry, and its dogmatic supporters, including Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, Rep. Sean Casten, and Rep. Jared Huffman, would stop trying to censor and otherwise shut down the people who raised the alarm about the coming crisis in the first place.
* * *
Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment,”Green Book Award winner, and the founder and president of Environmental Progress. He is author of just launched book San Fransicko (Harper Collins) and the best-selling book, Apocalypse Never (Harper Collins June 30, 2020). Subscribe To Michael’s substack here
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 18:40 - Russian-Led Bloc Agrees To Send Troops To Restore Order In Kazakhstan
Russian-Led Bloc Agrees To Send Troops To Restore Order In Kazakhstan
(update6:24eastern): After hours ago Kazakhstan’s embattled President Tokayev formally requested the CSTO security bloc – which involves 6 former Soviet countries including Russia and Belarus – for military assistance to quell largescale uprising which was triggered over a rapid fuel price hike, the Kremlin has said it is sending Russian troops.
In the early hours of Thursday (local time), the Russian-led bloc approved the “peace-keeping” mission in the former Soviet satellite state along Russia’s border to its south. Chairman of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Nikol Pashinyan, has announced a “limited” mission due to the “threat to national security” of Kazakhstan. This after President Tokayev had blamed “external aggression” on the unrest which has seen government buildings torched and banks looted.
“In response to the appeal by [President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev] and considering a threat to national security and sovereignty of Kazakhstan, caused, among other things, by outside interference, the CSTO Collective Security Council decided to send the Collective Peacekeeping Forces to the Republic of Kazakhstan in accordance with Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty,” Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said in a statement on Facebook.
The CSTO is a central Asia-focused military alliance of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. But logistically it could prove a significant problem to move any level of a large Russian forces, given other factors…
Russia last year was busy moving whole army from Kazakhstan border to the border of Ukraine. And that is not “rapid deployment forces” easy to move https://t.co/wZZXFurCh9
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) January 5, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Meanwhile, widespread looting was reported in major Kazakh cities in the overnight and early morning hours of Thursday – amid continued national internet outages – with increasingly wild scenes such as the following…
Looting in Almaty: crashing the bank pic.twitter.com/W1jH7LBNLO
— Russian Market (@russian_market) January 5, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
And more:
Looting continues in Kazakhstan pic.twitter.com/VTSJFWrY4K
— Russian Market (@russian_market) January 5, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
It appears the new peace-keeping mission will likely have a “counter-terror” focus. So far there’s been little reaction from Washington over the rapidly moving events in Kazakhstan. But likely we are about to hear the mainstream US networks go into overdrive alleging an “expansionist” Russia under Putin, and the usual hysterics.
* * *
(update2:01eastern): Russian state sources are reporting that embattled Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has sent a formal request for foreign troops to help quell the ongoing unrest, particularly Russia, as multiple cities have seen state buildings torched by protesters and rioters.
KAZAKH PRESIDENT SAYS PROTESTS ARE EXTERNAL AGGRESSION: TASS
⚡️Kazakh President sends request for foreign troops to collective security bloc – involving six former Soviet countries including Russia – to help stem the riots – reports pic.twitter.com/h8Nh1oyieR
— RT (@RT_com) January 5, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
This after he extended the state of emergency nationwide, and as external monitors have said the internet has been blocked for much of the last 24 hours.
Russia’s RT has published the following statement:
The Kazakh president has asked the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for help amid violent unrest gripping the nation, claiming that “terrorists” were overrunning strategic facilities across the country.
“I believe reaching out to the CSTO partners is appropriate and timely,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was quoted as saying by the media late on Wednesday.
* * *
It didn’t take long for the Kremlin to chime in on the raging and increasingly violent protests which have rocked its southern neighbor, the former Soviet satellite of Kazakhstan. As we underscored earlier, what began as angry mass protests days ago upon authorities removing a cap on gas prices for the citizenry now appears to be a full-blown push for government overthrow happening in the streets. With state buildings on fire and fierce clashes with police in various cities, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has on Wednesday extended the ‘state of emergency’ across the whole nation.
Already there are rumblings in regional press of possible “foreign manipulation” — causing Russia to warn against any external interference in Kazakhstan’s affairs, according to Reuters citing RIA news agency. At the same time some Western pundits are already making this all about Putin.
Government buildings attacked in Almaty. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov addressed the rapidly moving events which has seen the Kazakh president vow not to leave the capital “no matter what”. Peskov stressed to reporters that the country can “solve its own problems” and that it’s crucial that “no one interfere from the outside.”
And more, the report quoted Peskov as saying “Kazakhstan had not requested Russian help to deal with protests, triggered by a fuel price increase, that prompted the resignation of its government on Wednesday.”
The Russian foreign ministry confirmed separately it’s monitoring the unrest, “We advocate the peaceful resolution of all problems within the constitutional and legal framework and dialogue, rather than through street riots and the violation of laws,” a statement said.
Internet has been blocked across the country for at least a full day at this point, and there were earlier unconfirmed reports that the largest international airport, Almaty Airport, had been stormed and seized by rioters, with all flights canceled.
Hawkish analysts in the West are already linking Kazakh government oppression with who else… Putin
Another country with its border to Russia revolts: because the Beloved Leader stays in power for too long. Not a good sign for Putin, who will clearly intervene, if Nursultan (ruling since Summer 1989!) would disappoint Putin. Long live free Kazakhstan! pic.twitter.com/TAjQHDsewf
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) January 4, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
For now at this early point, claims of outside or foreign interference remain highly speculative, also given the lack of much if any international correspondents actually on the ground during the unrest.
Meanwhile multiple public buildings, including at least one presidential residence, have been torched, according to widely circulating social media videos.
Protesters now storming the main government building in Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty. pic.twitter.com/lemKcpILL8
— Patrick Reevell (@Reevellp) January 5, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
There is also evidence of ‘live fire’ in various locations, though there’s been little in the way of official casualty figures.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 18:24 - Goldman: Bitcoin's Price May Rise Above $100,000
Goldman: Bitcoin’s Price May Rise Above $100,000
As part of a “bonus question” asked in Goldman’s listing of the bank’s five top FX questions for 2022 (available to pro subscribers in the usual place), Goldman FX strategist Zach Pandl speculates on the fate of bitcoin – yes, according to the most important bank in the world, bitcoin is a currency – and predicts that the token frequently cited as digital gold will continue to take market share from gold as part of broader adoption of digital assets, suggesting that the often touted price prediction of $100,000 a distinct possibility.
In response to a rhetorical question whether “Bitcoin take additional market share from gold” (one which JPM answered affirmatively back in October when it found that “Institutions Are Rotating Out Of Gold Into Bitcoin As A Better Inflation Hedge“), Goldman’s Pandl takes a hint from the iconic analysis penned by Paul Tudor Jones back in May 2020 which quickly became a bible to crypto advocates, and which looked at the absolute value of various hard assets…
… and writes that according to the World Gold Council estimates, the private sector owns 44,000 metric tonnes of gold for investment purposes (i.e. privately-held bars and ETFs, excluding jewelry, official sector holdings, and industrial uses).
So, at the current market price of $1,800 per troy ounce, this implies that the public owns about $2.6 trillion of gold for investment purposes. By comparison, Bitcoin’s float-adjusted market capitalization is currently just under $700BN. Therefore, Pandl writes, “Bitcoin currently commands a roughly 20% share of the “store of value” (gold plus Bitcoin) market”
Looking ahead, the Goldman strategist thinks that Bitcoin’s market share will most likely rise over time as a byproduct of broader adoption of digital assets, and possibly due to Bitcoin-specific scaling solutions although, as he admits, “the network’s consumption of real resources may remain an important obstacle to institutional adoption.
In any case, in a hypothetical scenario, the Goldman strategist notes that if Bitcoin’s share of the “store of value” market were to rise to 50% over the next five years – with no growth in overall demand for stores of value – “its price would increase to just over $100,000, for a compound annualized return of 17-18% (accounting for growth in Bitcoin supply over time).”
Of course, bitcoin may eventually have applications beyond simply a “store of value”—and digital asset markets are much bigger than Bitcoin — but Goldman thinks that comparing its market capitalization to gold can help put parameters on plausible outcomes for Bitcoin returns.
Finally, this is great news for
web3 fansholders of Ethereum: as a reminder, Goldman has traditionally been skeptical about the long-term prospects of bitcoin while praising ethereum if for no other reason than its actual practical uses (see ““The Amazon Of Information”: Goldman Initiates On Crypto, Sees Ethereum Overtaking Bitcoin“). In fact, Goldman not too long ago said that the odds of a flipenning (the market cap of ETH surpassing that of BTC) are rising. Which means that if Bitcoin is set to double from here, then Ethereum may be looking at a $20,000 price in the not too distant future.Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/05/2022 – 18:20
Digest powered by RSS Digest
Saving...
