Today’s News 6th May 2022

• Visualizing How The Mobile Phone Market Has Evolved Over 30 Years
  Visualizing How The Mobile Phone Market Has Evolved Over 30 Years

  The mobile phone landscape looks drastically different today than it did three decades ago.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Stefan Ionescu and Carmen Ang detail below, in 1993, Motorola accounted for more than half of the mobile phone market. But by 2021, its market share had shrunk to just 2.2%. How did this happen, and how has the mobile industry changed over the last 30 years?

  This video by James Eagle chronicles the evolution of the mobile phone market, showing the rise and fall of various mobile phone manufacturers. The data spans from December 1992 to December 2021.

  The Early Days of Mobile Phones

  Motorola is known for being a pioneer in the mobile phone industry.

  In 1983, the American company launched one of the world’s first commercially available mobile phones—the DynaTAC 8000X. The revolutionary analog phone cost nearly $4,000 and offered users up to 30 minutes of talk time before needing to be recharged.

  Motorola went on to launch a few more devices over the next few years, like the MicroTAC 9800X in 1989 and the International 3200 in 1992, and quickly became a dominant player in the nascent industry. In the early days of the market, the company’s only serious competitor was Finnish multinational Nokia, which had acquired the early mobile network pioneer Mobira.

  But by the mid-1990s, other competitors like Sony and Siemens started to gain some solid footing, which chipped away at Motorola’s dominance. In September 1995, the company’s market share was down to 32.1%.

  

   

  By January 1999, Nokia surpassed Motorola as the leading mobile phone manufacturer, accounting for 21.4% of global market share. That put it just slightly ahead of Motorola’s 20.8%.

  One of the reasons for Nokia’s surging popularity was the major headway the company was making in the digital phone space. In 1999, the company released the Nokia 7110, the first mobile phone to have a web browser.

  But it wasn’t just Nokia’s innovations that were hampering Motorola. In 1999, Motorola fell on hard times after one of its spin-off projects called Iridium SSC filed for bankruptcy. This put a massive financial strain on the company, and it eventually laid off a large chunk of its workforce after the project failed.

  From then on, Motorola’s market share hovered between 14% and 20%, until Apple’s iPhone entered the scene in 2007 and turned the mobile phone industry on its head.

  The Emergence of the iPhone

  Things really started to change with the launch of the iPhone in 2007.

  In a keynote presentation at the San Francisco Macworld Expo in 2007, Steve Jobs presented the iPhone as three products wrapped into one device: a touchscreen iPod, a revolutionary cell phone, and an internet communications device.

  One year later, Apple launched the App Store, which gave users the ability to download applications and games onto their iPhones. Not only did this greatly enhance the iPhone’s functionality, but it also allowed consumers to customize their mobile devices like never before.

  This was the start of a new era of smartphones—one that Motorola failed to keep up with. Less than two years after the iPhone launched, Apple had captured 17.4% of the mobile phone market. In contrast, Motorola’s market share had shrunk down to 4.9%.

  By the end of 2021, Apple held about 27.3% of the global mobile market. The iPhone is a key part of the tech giant’s growth, driving more than 50% of the company’s overall revenue.

  A Failure to Pivot

  While a number of factors contributed to Motorola’s downfall, many point to one central hurdle—the company’s failure to pivot.

  The iPhone’s emergence was the start of a new, software-driven era. Motorola had mastered the hardware-driven era, but failed to keep up when the tides changed. And the animation above highlights other companies that also failed to adapt or keep up, including BlackBerry (formerly RIM), Palm, Sony, and LG.

  But Apple is not alone. The popularity of Google’s Android mobile operating system has helped competitors like South Korea’s Samsung and China’s Huawei and Xiaomi flourish, with each company establishing strong footholds in the global mobile phone market.

  In today’s fast-paced world, the ability to pivot is essential if businesses want to remain competitive. Will today’s mobile phone giants like Apple and Samsung remain on top? Or will other companies like Huawei catch up in the next few years?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/06/2022 – 02:45

• Turkey: NATO's Pro-Putin Ally
  Turkey: NATO’s Pro-Putin Ally

  Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

  • Western leaders shrugged it off when, in 2016, Erdoğan said in plain language that Turkey did not need to join the European Union “at all costs” and could instead become part of a security bloc dominated by China, Russia and Central Asian nations.

  • Erdoğan’s popularity, since he came to power in 2002, has worked as a self-poisoning instrument in the Turkish society, increasingly fuelling anti-Western sentiment, particularly anti-Americanism.

  • The… poll also indicated that 48% of the Turkish public think that the U.S. and NATO are responsible for the situation in Ukraine. Turks also think that Russia is their country’s third most important partner.

  • Nearly six out of 10 Turks (58.3%), according to the GMFUS poll, see the U.S. as the country’s biggest threat, while 31% said Russia and 29% said Israel. The percentage of Turks who say the U.S. should help solve global problems stands at just 6%.

  • While sending smiley messages of reconciliation to the West and the West’s partners in the Middle East, including Israel, Erdoğan keeps fuelling anti-Western sentiments in Turkey.

  • When they are not reading pro-Erdoğan newspapers, Turks are watching pro-Erdoğan television channels featuring commentators who blame the war on Washington and NATO’s eastward expansion.

  • Turkey… dismissed the idea of send its S-400 missiles to Ukraine to help Kyiv resist Russian troops.

  • “The Russians are buying houses and other properties in Turkey, taking advantage of the law that allows foreigners to become Turkish citizens if they invest at least $250,000. Many Russians are able to circumvent Western sanctions by transferring their money from Russian to Turkish banks and converting their rubles to Turkish liras or other currencies. All NATO member countries, with the exception of Turkey, have imposed strict sanctions on Russia…” — Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2022.

  • “Turkey’s central bank took in about $3 billion in just two days in mid-March… That money was likely largely composed of deposits from Russians.” — Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2022

  • This is how NATO ally Turkey is “fighting” the Western battle against Russian aggression. In return, the Biden administration seems to be rewarding Erdoğan.

  • The Biden administration, evidently, at the behest of Turkey, has tried to kill the EastMed gas pipeline project, which could supply gas from Cyprus and Israel, via Greece, to Europe.

  • Worse, the US State Department, in a March 17 letter to Congress, said that a potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey would be “in line with U.S. national security interests” and would also “serve NATO’s long-term unity.”

  • Greece, which recently has experienced countless illegal Turkish overflights, not to mention the last few years, must be thrilled.

  • Turkey needs to start acting like an ally; not a deceitful, pro-Putin ally.

  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s popularity, since he came to power in 2002, has worked as a self-poisoning instrument in the Turkish society, increasingly fuelling anti-Western sentiment, particularly anti-Americanism. Turkey needs to start acting like an ally; not a deceitful, pro-Putin ally.

  

  Pictured: Erdoğan meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, on March 10, 2017. (Image source: kremlin.ru)

  Turkey’s “balancing act” during the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the result of the country’s Islamist leader’s two-decade long indoctrination of a generation of Turks to make them “pious.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may or may not have raised pious generations, as he declared was his political mission, but he has definitely raised an anti-Western generation. That anti-Western sentiment once again makes Turkey the odd-man-out in NATO.

  Western leaders shrugged it off when, in 2016, Erdoğan said in plain language that Turkey did not need to join the European Union “at all costs” and could instead become part of a security bloc dominated by China, Russia and Central Asian nations. Earlier, in 2013, Turkey had signed up as a “dialogue partner” saying it shared “the same destiny” as members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) — which was formed in 2001 as a regional security bloc.

  The same Western leaders looked silly when they were “shocked” at a 2019 Turkish decision to buy the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missile system. They simply missed that Turkey had long been only a part-time NATO ally.

  Erdoğan’s popularity, since he came to power in 2002, has worked as a self-poisoning instrument in the Turkish society, increasingly fuelling anti-Western sentiment, particularly anti-Americanism. The Turkish public’s views of the Russian invasion of Ukraine today is an inevitable consequence. A poll by the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. (GMFUS) found that nearly 84% of Turks want their country either to mediate or stay neutral — 10 times more than those who want Turkey to back only Ukraine. Put in other words, 84% of Turks do not support Ukraine in the conflict.

  Turkish pollster MetroPoll found in March that fewer than half (49.3%) of those surveyed think Turkey should be a member of the EU, down from 80% in the early 2000s. The same poll also indicated that 48% of the Turkish public think that the U.S. and NATO are responsible for the situation in Ukraine. Turks also think that Russia is their country’s third most important partner.

  Nearly six out of 10 Turks (58.3%), according to the GMFUS poll, see the U.S. as the country’s biggest threat, while 31% said Russia and 29% said Israel. The percentage of Turks who say the U.S. should help solve global problems stands at just 6%.

  While sending smiley messages of reconciliation to the West and the West’s partners in the Middle East, including Israel, Erdoğan keeps fuelling anti-Western sentiments in Turkey. Speaking at the inauguration of a madrassa (Islamic seat of learning) on April 15, Erdoğan spoke of “these days when the Western culture and life-style has invaded the whole world.”

  Echoing his boss’ ideological obsession, Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu said in a March 14 interview that the Ukraine war shows that the “UN, NATO, and global institutions are going bankrupt” and “the EU is no longer meaningful as a community.” Soylu claimed that the Kremlin merely reacted against U.S. efforts to contain Russia “at a time when the vulnerability of the U.S. and the EU reached a peak under the pandemic.” The war, in Soylu’s thinking, symbolizes the end of globalization as nation-states rise to power.

  When they are not reading pro-Erdoğan newspapers, Turks are watching pro-Erdoğan television channels featuring commentators who blame the war on Washington and NATO’s eastward expansion. One well-known admiral saluted the Russian invasion of Ukraine as “a step to end the imperialist Atlanticist age”, and another claimed that Moscow was tricked into the conflict so that it can be weakened for years to come. Others said that Moscow was not massacring people and was in fact opening an opportunity for peace by not seizing Kyiv.

  Since the beginning of the Russian aggression, some of the confused Turkish action reflecting the country’s confused directions included:

  • On February 25, Turkey abstained from voting on suspending Russia’s membership in most bodies of the Council of Europe in response to the military operation in Ukraine. “During the vote in Strasbourg, Turkey decided to abstain,” Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said. “We don’t want to break off the dialogue with Russia.”

  • In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal, former CIA official Paul Kolbe suggested that “Turkey should send Ukraine the Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems.” Turkey, however, dismissed the idea of send its S-400 missiles to Ukraine to help Kyiv resist Russian troops.

  • Although Turkey has blocked some Russian ships from their Black Sea blockade of Ukraine, according to retired U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, “This is an illegal blockade in every dimension — no declared war, no self-defense involved, illegitimate and flagrant violation of international law. Designed to starve the population and break the economy. Yet another example of Russian criminal behavior.” No one, of course, has held Russia accountable. Turkey has, in fact, blocked all naval vessels, including NATO’s ships, which must make Russia happy — but not supplies.

  • As Western governments targeted Roman Abramovich and several other Russian oligarchs with sanctions to isolate Putin and his allies, a second superyacht linked to the Russian billionaire docked in a Turkish resort. A source in Ankara told Reuters that Abramovich and other wealthy Russians were looking to invest in Turkey, given the sanctions imposed elsewhere. “He wants to do some work and may buy some assets,” the source said, adding that the oligarch already had some assets in Turkey. Another source in Ankara said Turkey was not currently considering joining sanctions action and expected wealthy Russians to purchase assets and make investments.

  • Çavuşoğlu said on March 26 that “Russian oligarchs are welcome in Turkey.” The message was taken. On April 16, the Clio, a superyacht owned by Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska, arrived at Turkey’s port of Göcek. Deripaska, the founder of the Russian aluminum giant Rusal, was sanctioned by the US, the EU and Britain.

  • Erdoğan’s government announced the creation of an airline, Southwind, with the aim of bringing Russian tourists to resorts and attractions in Turkey. This is part of a Turkish-Russian understanding that Russia keeps using Turkish airspace as free as if it had never invaded Ukraine.

  • The Wall Street Journal reported in a headline that “Superyachts, Seaside Apartments and Suitcases Full of Cash: Russians Pour Money Into Turkey.” The article said that tens of thousands of Russians have fled to Turkey with suitcases full of money, yachts, private jets and other assets:

    “The Russians are buying houses and other properties in Turkey, taking advantage of the law that allows foreigners to become Turkish citizens if they invest at least $250,000. Many Russians are able to circumvent Western sanctions by transferring their money from Russian to Turkish banks and converting their rubles to Turkish liras or other currencies. All NATO member countries, with the exception of Turkey, have imposed strict sanctions on Russia, preventing its citizens from wiring their money out of the country, blocking Russian Airlines from flying to western countries, and confiscating the oligarchs’ superyachts and private jets. Refusing to impose sanctions on Russia, Turkey is trying to revive its bankrupt economy by generating desperately-needed funds… Turkey’s central bank took in about $3 billion in just two days in mid-March… That money was likely largely composed of deposits from Russians.”

  This is how NATO ally Turkey is “fighting” the Western battle against Russian aggression. In return, the Biden administration seems to be rewarding Erdoğan.

  The Biden administration, evidently, at the behest of Turkey, has tried to kill the EastMed gas pipeline project, which could supply gas from Cyprus and Israel, via Greece, to Europe.

  According to Gatestone Senior Fellow Soeren Kern:

  “The EastMed pipeline has been in the works for more than a decade. The Israel-Greece-Cyprus project — joined by Bulgaria, Hungary, North Macedonia, Romania and Serbia — has long been seen as a way to diversify natural gas supplies to Europe.”

  Worse, the US State Department, in a March 17 letter to Congress, said that a potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey would be “in line with U.S. national security interests” and would also “serve NATO’s long-term unity.”

  Greece, which recently has experienced countless illegal Turkish overflights, not to mention the last few years, must be thrilled.

  Turkey needs to start acting like an ally; not a deceitful, pro-Putin ally.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/06/2022 – 02:00

• The American People Must Relocate Power To The States
  The American People Must Relocate Power To The States

  Authored by Richard M. Reinsch II via RealClear Books (emphasis ours),

  When American citizens look to Washington, D.C., they find much to be disappointed in and even less to believe in. The fundamental problem is that the federal government has, through its regulatory and spending powers, usurped much of the governing authority for the republic.

  

  However, for reasons both predictable and lamentable, it has failed to govern well for decades, with policy breakdowns occurring across the board. Peter Schuck observed in his book “Why Government Fails So Often” that most federal government policies cannot pass a transparent cost-benefits test. But this dysfunctional government results from size and scope – from the federal government vastly exceeding a competency scale that our Constitution attempted to establish.

  There is no manifest line in the Constitution that guides the distribution of power between the federal government and the state governments. In the Federalist Papers, Publius argues that the question will be decided by citizens about where to place power, and their judgment will turn on competency in administration. This process inevitably will be a deliberative one, influenced by elections, arguments, and results.

  If so, we should record that federal spending is now so large and so encompassing that it swallows the ability of the states to be self-governing and accountable to their citizens. This has occurred through ever-expanding federal grants-in-aid. These programs should be culled for the restoration of constitutional order and its commitment to a self-governing people.

  As Philip Hamburger argues in his new book “Purchasing Submission,” the federal government can impose laws and rules on the states through the so-called Spending Power. The constitutional authority of the government to act in this capacity is suspect, and its consequences go beyond the mere size of the expenditures. And yet, on federal spending, we are also facing real limits on government power, with negative consequences in the form of inflation, chronic indebtedness, and lost economic growth.

  Our country even faces potential catastrophic entitlement cuts, since, as a debtor nation, we continue to pay for present expenses with long-term debt instruments that we cannot afford to pay without drastic tax increases, spending cuts, or both.

  Of course, most of our state governments eagerly seek federal grants and funding. Even though such money comes with strings attached to Washington, most states can’t leave well enough alone. What do they lose by taking the money – funds that enable them to claim success for services to constituents whose real costs are not actually paid for by the state’s taxpayers?

  The loss is that we as citizens no longer govern ourselves in an open and competitive fashion versus other states. This crucial discipline over state governments is circumvented. However, the loss of self-government includes not only the states. Members of Congress no longer focus their undivided attention on what should be for them the more pressing objectives of national government. The federal government now gets wagged by the tail, turned on behalf of local concerns and interests that are served by grant programs.

  The failure here is to assume that federal spending in the form of grants to states and localities will produce better policy results than if local priorities had been decided by the actual authorities elected by that state’s voters. Thus does the centralization of power and its enthronement of experts continue unabated as the prime mover in American government.

  What must happen for the proper liberation of the states to govern themselves in full? That would entail ceasing federal grants through a constitutional amendment. This would save billions of dollars and, crucially, restore Congress to its proper function of deliberating national problems and issues.

  The American people must be able to locate authority and accountability in their state governments, which should be led by officials who are fully transparent with their citizens about the costs of programs that must be borne by actual citizens in the state, not by federal taxpayers in an endless game of fiscal shapeshifting. In this way, the federal government would stick to its basic set of truly national issues. The states would become what they were meant to be: entities that govern close to the people, shaping the communities within their jurisdiction, in ways that a national government cannot.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 23:40

• Watch: Air Force's "QUICKSINK" Smart Bomb Rips Cargo Ship In Half
  Watch: Air Force’s “QUICKSINK” Smart Bomb Rips Cargo Ship In Half

  Just weeks after Ukraine sunk a Russian warship, the US Air Force revealed new footage of a precision-guided bomb ripping a cargo ship in half during a new weapons test. 

  The US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) used a modified GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) under the Quicksink Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (JCTD) on April 28 over the 120,000-square-mile Eglin Gulf Test and Training Range on the Gulf of Mexico to sink a cargo ship. 

  

  An F-15E Strike Eagle fighter dropped the JDAM, successfully striking the ship at the marine testing range. The smart bomb penetrated the ship’s hull and exploded, immediately ripping the vessel in half. 

  “QUICKSINK is an answer to an urgent need to neutralize maritime threats to freedom around the world,” said Col. Tony Meeks, director of AFRL’s Munitions Directorate. 

  

  By repurposing a JDAM for maritime missions, QUICKSINK will save the DoD money and be able to quickly field these weapons worldwide. 

  “QUICKSINK is unique in that it can provide new capabilities to existing and future DOD weapons systems, giving combatant commanders and our national leaders new ways to defend against maritime threats,” explained Kirk Herzog, AFRL program manager.

  QUICKSINK could soon be another viable option for combat commanders to sink enemy ships and is a low-cost alternative to torpedoes. 

  “A Navy submarine has the ability to launch and destroy a ship with a single torpedo at any time, but the QUICKSINK JCTD aims to develop a low-cost method of achieving torpedo-like kills from the air at a much higher rate and over a much larger area,” continued Herzog.

  The testing of this technology comes as Russia continues a two-month assault on Ukraine. There’s also concern that China is expanding its massive naval fleet in the Pacific. 

  Watch the insane video of the modified JDAM splitting the vessel in half. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 23:20

• The 5 Stages Of Getting Orange-Pilled
  The 5 Stages Of Getting Orange-Pilled

  Via Lightningnetwork.plus,

  No matter the subject, it’s never easy to accept the realization that one’s world view is incorrect. For many smart and educated people like Michael Saylor it took years to get it. Bitcoin’s underlying philosophy itself, and its implementation challenge many well engrained ideas. It’s also not a minor subject, it shakes the foundation of what you hold to be true all your life.

  Bitcoiners often get disappointed with nocoiners (people who don’t have Bitcoin) when trying to orange pill them (open their minds to Bitcoin), because they don’t seem to understand the obvious. I urge us to be patient and understanding.

  

  Learn to recognize the “5 stages of grief” most people go through while detoxing from fiat, and help them through the hurdles with patience and with compassion.

  1. Shock and denial 😲

  Initially people can’t accept that fiat money and the global monetary system is not what they thought it is. They can’t accept that the official narrative they have been thought in school and have been fed by mass media doesn’t tell the full story. It’s shocking to realize one has been manipulated.

  People also can’t accept that a pseudunomous economist / programmer(s) (Satoshi Nakamoto) can discover digital scarcity, and reboot the world economy with a more efficient and more just monetary system that doesn’t rely on centralized powers.

  This stage can take a relatively long time, because one has to learn a quite a bit about bitcoin while being in denial.

  2. Anger 😡

  Once people get over the shock, they often get angry.

  They are angry for being lied to by the system, but they are also upset because they assume they missed out on buying bitcoin early.

  Some construct or buy into various narratives that Bitcoin is actually dangerous because it will replace the old established monetary systems, or because it uses too many resources to run, etc.

  At one point though, people do come to accept that this is happening no matter what.

  3. Bargaining 🧐

  The next step for intelligent people typically is bargaining.

  They will ask: can we roll back time, and instead of bitcoin use another crypto coin that they can buy into early, or can we make the properties of bitcoin different so they would fit one’s personal preferences (that typically turn out to be shortsighted)?

  This stage is very important because people will learn through questioning about legacy systems, the engineering decisions made for bitcoin, about complex incentive structures, and other deeper aspects of the subject.

  4. Depression 😕

  As people understand more about the economy, financial systems, political powers, money in general, inflation, etc. they get depressed.

  There is a lot of uneccessary injustice, unfairness and cruelty going on in the world, and bitcoin doesn’t seem to offer a quick solution to all these problems right away. Most people in the world haven’t adopted bitcoin to any level in their lives. There are massive powers who are opposed to change. How will we ever get over these hurdles?

  Fortunately, most people are strong in heart and not willing to give in or give up. Many move on to the last and most important stage.

  5. Acceptance and hope 🤩

  Once people realize bitcoin is not an instant or perfect solution to all ills in the world, but it is our only fair shot to fix things, they reach the final stage. They start to see bitcoin’s true value and ingenuity, and how it can be the foundation for a new fair monetary and economic system. The future doesn’t seem bleak no more. Hope returns.

  At this point, people start to do what they can to help to push bitcoin forward:

  • Most adopt it in their lives for savings and for payments

  • Some start to run a node and provide liquidity to the Lightning Network

  • Some can’t hold back the good news and start to talk to their friends about bitcoin

  • Some transition into jobs where they can work on bitcoin and its ecosystem

  This entire process is difficult, yet extremely rewarding. It not only gives back hope in the future and improves one’s financials, but that hope cascades into other areas of life like health, relationships, improved moral values, etc. People start to feel empowered to take charge and embetter themselves and their communities.

  If you’re a bitcoiner, I don’t have to convince you about the above. If you’re a nocoiner, you won’t believe me until you experienced the change yourself. Good luck on your journey no matter where you stand! 🚀

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 23:00

• Timeline: The Rise, Fall, & Return Of The Hummer
  Timeline: The Rise, Fall, & Return Of The Hummer

  The Hummer brand has a relatively short history, but its trucks are some of America’s biggest automotive icons (both figuratively and literally). Originally designed for the military, Hummers are famous for their size, off-road capability, and of course, fuel consumption.

  However, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcu Lu details below, the latter proved to be the Hummer’s Achilles’ heel. By 2007, a recession was coming, and the appetite for oversized gas guzzlers had shrunk. The Hummer brand was discontinued, and its last truck rolled off the production line in 2010.

  Over a decade later, GM is reviving the Hummer as a fully-electric off-road vehicle. Preorders have surpassed 65,000 units, but how does this compare to the brand’s heyday in the 2000s?

  

  The Origins

  The Hummer traces its roots to 1983, when AM General, a heavy vehicle manufacturer, received $1 billion from the Pentagon to build the High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (Humvee).

  The Humvee became a staple of the U.S. military, and by 1991, 72,000 had been produced. The truck was especially useful in Middle Eastern conflict zones due to its ability to transport troops and cargo over rough terrain.

  If you’re wondering how this military vehicle ended up on public roads, you can thank none other than Arnold Schwarzenegger.

  While filming the 1990 action-comedy, Kindergarten Cop, Arnold reportedly fell in love with a Humvee used on set. He later persuaded AM General to produce a consumer version of the truck, which arrived in 1992 under the name “Hummer”.

  Apart from adding creature comforts like air conditioning, AM General made very few changes to the consumer-spec Hummer. It was notoriously crude and unsuited for city driving, but its military roots gave it plenty of character. GM saw an opportunity in expanding the brand, so in 1999, it purchased the rights to produce and market the Hummer.

  Rise and Fall

  GM moved rather quickly after purchasing Hummer. It renamed the truck to “H1”, and released an “H2” just a few years later.

  Sales in the U.S. jumped, hitting over 35,000 in 2003 before tapering off slightly. To keep momentum going, GM rolled out the smaller and cheaper “H3” in 2005. Sales once again spiked, and the brand recorded over 71,000 sales in 2006.

  Unfortunately, what goes up eventually comes down. In 2009, during GM’s bankruptcy proceedings, the Hummer brand was discontinued along with Pontiac and Saturn.

  

   

  So what went wrong? For starters, the H2 was a victim of the times. It was large, expensive, and extremely thirsty for gas—attributes that don’t fare well during an economic recession.

   

  In fact, the H2 never received an official fuel economy rating from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) because it was too heavy. Regulations at the time excluded vehicles over 8,500 lbs from testing, though journalists observed an average of less than 10 mpg.

  The H3 mitigated some of these issues by downsizing, and it quickly become the brand’s best selling vehicle. This success was short-lived, as the H3 alone could not sustain the brand.

  Jolted to Life

  In 2020, GM announced the all-electric Hummer EV. It bears a strong resemblance to the H2, carrying over iconic design elements such as the front grill with vertical slats.

  Compared to the H2, this electric model is longer, wider, and heavier. Estimates suggest that it will weigh over 9,000 lbs, which according to EPA estimates, is more than double the weight of the average car. This is primarily attributed to the truck’s vast quantity of battery packs.

  Power is also increased thanks to the electric drivetrain, with the “Edition 1” model boasting 1,000 horsepower from its three electric motors (a similar configuration to Tesla’s Plaid platform). Lesser models, which only have two motors, are expected to generate north of 600 horsepower.

  A Promising Restart

  Will battery power be the key to the Hummer’s long-term success?

  So far, GM appears to have played its cards right. New trucks are outselling new cars by a ratio of 3-to-1 in the U.S., and the release of the Hummer EV is well-timed to capitalize on this trend.

  The Hummer EV also sheds one of its predecessors’ biggest weaknesses—fuel consumption. With gas prices at all-time highs, can we dare to call the new Hummer “economical”?

  Either way, GM is certainly enjoying the economic benefits of its decision. Over 65,000 pre-orders have been received, and production of the Hummer EV is completely sold out until 2024. The truck is being built at Factory Zero in Michigan, which is GM’s first EV-dedicated production facility.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 22:40

• Chinese National Convicted Of Conspiracy To Steal Cancer Drug Trade Secrets To Benefit China-Backed Company
  Chinese National Convicted Of Conspiracy To Steal Cancer Drug Trade Secrets To Benefit China-Backed Company

  Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A Chinese-Swiss man was convicted after trial for his role in a family conspiracy to steal trade secrets related to cancer drugs, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ).

  

  U.S. Attorney Jennifer Williams announced on May 2 that Xue Gongda, a permanent resident of Switzerland with Chinese citizenship, was convicted for his part in a $10 billion scheme to steal cancer medications from his employer and rebrand them under his own biomedical company.

  According to a DOJ statement, Xue had worked as a scientist for the Friedrich Miescher Institute for Biomedical Research (FMI) in Switzerland, which is affiliated with Novartis. His sister, Xue Yu, meanwhile, worked as a scientist at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in Pennsylvania at the same time.

  “This defendant illegally stole trade secrets to benefit companies controlled by himself and his sister, one of which were financed by the Chinese government,” Williams said.

  “The lifeblood of companies like GSK is its intellectual property, and when that property is stolen and transferred to a foreign country, it threatens thousands of American jobs and disincentivizes research and development. Such criminal behavior must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

  Both Gongda and Yu conducted confidential research into cancer for their prospective companies, and each signed confidentiality agreements as part of their employment, the DOJ said. Gongda carried out research for publication in journals, and his sister Yu performed research for anti-cancer drugs then under development.

  While working for their respective entities, Gongda and Yu shared confidential information for their own personal benefit, stealing and sending their companies’ information back and forth and creating new biopharmaceutical companies through which they could sell proprietary drugs under new names, prosecutors said. Gongda created Abba Therapeutics in Switzerland, and Yu created Renopharma in China. Renopharma even received direct funding from the Chinese Communist Party.

  Renopharma’s internal projections showed that the company could be worth as much as $10 billion based on the stolen GSK data, the DOJ said.

  Gongda was charged in 2018 and extradited from Switzerland to the United States in December 2019. The FBI arrested Yu and her Renopharama associates in January 2016.

  Yu pleaded guilty to theft of trade secrets alongside GSK colleague Lucy Xi. Further, another sister, Xue Tian, pleaded guilty to conspiracy designed to launder the substantial ill-gotten gains that Renopharma expected to receive. One of the directors of Renopharma, Li Tao, also pleaded guilty for his role in conspiring to steal GSK trade secrets. The other director of Renopharma, Mei Yan, is a fugitive who currently resides in mainland China, according to the DOJ.

  “When a company like GSK spends billions on research and development to bring new drugs to market, the theft of valuable trade secrets poses a significant operational threat,” said Jacqueline Maguire, an FBI agent associated with the case. “When those secrets are stolen on behalf of a global adversary, it also endangers the security of our nation and the stability of our economy.”

  “The FBI will continue to bring all our investigative resources to bear to hold accountable criminals like Xue and his codefendants who steal intellectual property to benefit themselves and the Government of China. Our relationships with private sector partners like GSK are critical to disrupting such costly activity and bringing those responsible to justice.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 22:20

• Bond Market Is Breaking: The Last Three Times 30Y Yields Jumped More, The Fed Intervened
  Bond Market Is Breaking: The Last Three Times 30Y Yields Jumped More, The Fed Intervened

  Some concerning observations about the state of the bond market from JPMorgan’s Jay Barry (full note available to pro subscribers in the usual place).

  We argued yesterday that the sharp decline in front-end yields was exaggerated by the unwind of speculative short positions, but we did not expect for that move to nearly fully reverse today as Treasury yields rose 11-16bp.  Given this reversal, it’s tempting to say the market is coalescing on our view; however, we do not think this represents a more hawkish reassessment of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, as the long-end led the way to higher yields.

  Notably, there have only been 6 instances over the last decade in which 30-year bond yields rose more than today: the top 3 were all amid the worst of market dysfunction in March 2020 which forced the Fed to intervene in unprecedented fashion, the fourth was the day after the presidential election in 2016, the fifth was a stronger-than-expected payroll release on a low-liquidity Friday around the July 4th holiday in 2013, and the sixth was in December 2015 when the ECB disappointed market’s expectations for additional stimulus

  

  Accordingly, we think it’s critical to explore the drivers of this historic move. 

  First, it’s hard to say valuations justify this bearish steepening. Over a longer period, when the Fed is on the move, the curve tends to trade counter directionally, flattening as yields rise, and vice versa. As a result, the curve has completely decoupled from the market’s Fed’ expectations: over the last 6 months, 2-year Treasury yields have explained about 93% of the variation in the 5s/30s curve, and given these moves, the curve appears about 14bp too steep (Exhibit 2).

  

  Second, we’ve argued lately that the liquidity backdrop is relatively weak: as we showed yesterday, Treasury market depth has been sitting at levels only seen during the worst of the GFC in late-2008/early-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. This paints a weaker picture on Treasury market liquidity than the presentation by TBAC. Ten-year Treasury market depth remains near the lowest levels since March 2020. Now poor liquidity in itself does not cause this move, but can be an accelerant in the face of other factors. It’s likely this has been exaggerated by cyclical dynamics, as liquidity tends to weaken in the days leading up to the monthly employment report: this could be exaggerated by the calendar configuration, as today falls the day after the FOMC and the day before the April employment report (Exhibit 3).

  

  Third, risk appetite is light: we’ve highlighted that investors have used the move to higher yields to reduce risk, and Exhibit 4 shows that the share of neutrals in our Treasury Client Survey have been on the rise throughout 2022, matching the highest share since early-March 2020, and the upper end of the range we’ve seen over the past decade. This matters because Treasury is set to auction about $105bn in 10-year Treasury equivalents next week, certainly smaller than the last few months, but still the largest weekly concentration of duration supply over the course of this month.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 22:03

• Feds Take Emergency Action To Delay Water Releases From Lake Powell As Megadrought Sparks Crisis 
  Feds Take Emergency Action To Delay Water Releases From Lake Powell As Megadrought Sparks Crisis 

  The federal government announced Tuesday unprecedented measures to increase the water level in Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir on the Colorado River. The reservoir, which supplies water and power to millions of people in seven states, has plunged to 24% of total capacity and the lowest level in over half a century. 

  Amid the worst drought in 1,200 years, the Bureau of Reclamation announced a plan to release approximately 500k acre-feet (kaf) of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located upstream, that will flow into Lake Powell. Another 480k kaf that would have been released from Lake Powell will be retained in the artificial lake on the Utah-Arizona border. 

  

  Such an emergency action is in response to Powell’s water surface elevation at 3,522 feet and quickly dropping. A level below 3,490 feet would mean the Glen Canyon Dam hydropower plant would no longer be operational and could disrupt power and water to millions of people. 

  “The measure protects hydropower generation, the facility’s key infrastructure, and the water supply for the city of Page, Arizona, and the LeChee Chapter of the Navajo Nation,” the federal agency said. 

  

  This will buy federal and state officials 12 months as it considers additional measures to prevent Lake Powell from slipping under the disastrous level of 3,490 feet. 

  “We have never taken this step before in the Colorado River Basin, but the conditions we see today and the potential risk we see on the horizon demand that we take prompt action,” Tanya Trujillo, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science, told reporters. 

  CNN spoke with Bryan Hill, general manager of the public power utility in Page, Arizona, compared the water crisis at Lake Powell to judgment day.

  “We’re knocking on the door of judgment day … Judgment day being when we don’t have any water to give anybody, Hill previously said. 

  The decision comes two weeks after federal officials weighed measures to hold back water at the dam to protect the hydropower plant at Glen Canyon Dam. Their action response time of just two weeks suggests a water crisis is underway. 

  

  Recently, Tom Buschatzke, Arizona’s top water official, warned of an impending water crisis. He said: “We’re going to have to learn to live with less water.”

  With summer in a month and a half, federal government meteorologists are already warning that severe drought conditions could worsen. US Drought Monitor data shows much of the US West is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions. 

  

  Several counties in Southern California have already declared a water shortage emergency for the first time, restricting residents from outdoor watering. This could broaden to more states that depend on the Colorado River as Lake Powell and Lake Mead (more downstream) experience record low levels. A megadrought in the western part of the country won’t be abating anytime soon. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 22:00

• April Payrolls Preview: Get Ready For A Big Miss
  April Payrolls Preview: Get Ready For A Big Miss

  With the Fed unleashing the most aggressive tightening campaign in decades just days after US GDP unexpectedly printed negative – a technical recession just one more subzero quarter away – and both the US stock and housing market careening in scary reruns of the 1970s, the only pillar of strength the US has left is the overheating labor market. But, as we noted earlier today, even that is starting to crack.

  

  Which is why tomorrow’s April payrolls will be closely scrutinized, not just whether there is an unexpectedly poor jobs print further confirming that the US is on the verge of recession, but also for information on whether red-hot wage growth – a byproduct of the runaway wage-price spiral –  is finally cooling, and hinting at peak inflation.

  So here’s what Wall Street expects tomorrow, courtesy of Newsquawk:

  The consensus expects 391k non-farm payrolls to be added in April, with the pace easing from recent averages as well as the prior rate. The breakdown of expectations by bank is as follows:

  • Daiwa +500K
  • JPM +475K
  • Jeff +475K
  • MS +475K
  • SocGen +475K
  • BNP +460K
  • BofA +450K
  • Barx +450K
  • AP +440K
  • RBC +420K
  • HSBC +405K
  • NW +400K
  • Scotia +400K
  • TD +400K
  • BMO +380K
  • Citi +360K
  • CS +350K
  • Miz +350K
  • Nom +340K
  • DB +300K
  • GS +300K
  • UBS +300K
  • WF +300K
     
  • Median +380K

  It is likely that traders will place a great deal of emphasis on the average hourly earnings metrics given that the Fed is more focused on the inflation part of its mandate. Proxies of labor market progress have been mixed in the month: the ADP’s gauge of payrolls disappointed expectations and was below the analyst forecast range; although initial jobless claims inched up slightly comparing the reference periods for the March and April jobs reports, the four-week moving average has fallen, as have continuing claims; within the two ISM reports on business, the employment sub-indices both fell in the month, with the services sector down beneath the 50.0 neutral level. Meanwhile, other reports continue to note the tightness within labor markets, and there are some data points–like the Employment Costs Index–which continue to allude to strongly rising wages as consumer prices continue to rise.

  HEADLINE EXPECTATIONS:

  • Consensus expects 380k nonfarm payrolls (Wall Street’s thought leader Goldman is at 300K) to be added to the US economy in April (vs the prior 431k), with the rate of payroll growth seen further easing below recent trend rates (3-month average at 562k, 6-month average at 600k, 12-month average at 541k).
  • The unemployment rate is likely to fall by one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.5%; note, the FOMC projects the jobless rate will fall to that level this year, and currently forecasts it will remain there through the end of 2023, before moving up to around 4.0% in the longer-run. The central bank will next update its projections in June, but at his post-meeting press conference this week, Fed Chair Powell said that job gains have been robust in recent months, and noted that the unemployment rate has declined substantially.
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.4% compared to March, the same as last month’s increase. On an annual basis, hourly earnings as expected to slow down modestly to 5.5% from 5.6% the previous month.

  PROXIES: The ADP’s gauge of private payrolls was soft relative to expectations, printing 247k against an expected 395k–below the 300-585k forecast range–although the March data saw an upward revision to 479k from 455k. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics were dismissive about the relevance of the data, noting that it is just a model-driven forecast with a “patchy record”. The consultancy says that the “ADP talks about how it incorporates data from firms which use their payroll processing services, but that’s not the core of their model, which also includes regular macro data and the lagged official payroll numbers,” adding that its estimate “is not statistically significant when incorporated into a payroll model using the Homebase numbers, so we aren’t changing our 300K forecast for Friday’s official headline reading.” Elsewhere, the weekly data that coincides with the typical reference period for the establishment survey showed initial jobless claims rising to 185k from 177k heading into the March jobs report, although the four-week average slipped to 177.5k from 188.75k; continuing claims eased to 1.408mln from 1.542mln, with the four-week average also falling.

  BUSINESS SURVEYS: Within the ISM manufacturing survey, the Employment sub-component fell by 5.4 points to 50.9, a shade above the 50.0 neutral level, indicating that labour market momentum in the manufacturing sector was slowing. (NOTE: ISM says that an employment index above 50.5, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the BLS data on manufacturing employment). The report noted that panellists were still struggling to meet labour management plans, with fewer signs of improvement compared to March. ISM said that there was a smaller share of comments noting greater hiring ease in the month, while an overwhelming majority of panellists were again indicating that their companies were hiring. That said, 34% of those surveyed expressed difficulty in filling positions, which was higher than the 28% in March; turnover rates remained elevated, and there were fewer indications of hiring improvement. The ISM said employment levels, driven primarily by turnover and a smaller labour pool, remained the top issue affecting further output growth. The Services ISM, meanwhile, saw its employment sub-index decline by 4.5 points, taking it to 49.5 – below the 50.0 neutral mark. The survey noted that comments from respondents included “job openings exist, but finding talent to fill them remains a struggle across most industry sectors and job categories” and “demand for employment remains hypercompetitive; there is just not enough qualified personnel available.”

  WAGES: The street expects average hourly earnings to rise by 0.4% M/M in April, although the annual measure is seen slipping by one-tenth of a percentage point to 5.5% Y/Y. Much of the market’s focus will be on these wage components, particularly after the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) rose by 1.4%, topping the consensus 1.1%; on an annualized basis; the ECI was up 5.2% Y/Y. Analysts have been paying more attention to the ECI data after Fed Chair Powell last November cited it as a measure that he was monitoring closely when gauging how employment compensation was faring. Analysts generally agree that the trends seen in this report suggest the labour market is tight and consistent with the need for the FOMC to front-load rate hikes to put a lid on price pressures. UBS says that a composition-adjusted average hourly earnings measure that it constructed has recently been running at a little below 4%, which is a bit below the pace of annualised gains seen in the ECI data. The bank is expecting that the April AHE data will likely surprise to the upside, however, this would be due to calendar shifts, and should not be taken as a strong economic signal.

  ARGUING FOR A WEAKNER THAN EXPECTED REPORT:

  • Labor supply constraints. As shown in Exhibit 1, when the labor market is tight, job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season. This reflects the combination of a high seasonal hurdle—the BLS adjustment factors assume roughly 800k of seasonal hiring in April—with fewer available workers. The arrival of the youth summer labor force tends to ease these constraints in June and July.

  

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market generally indicate weakness in April employment, with four of the five indicators we track consistent with a below-consensus report (see Exhibit 2). The Census Household Pulse Survey is an outlier to the downside; however, that has series has been very volatile in recent months (-3.2mn in April after +3.1mn in March, +4.8mn in February, and -3.7mn in January).

  

  • Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally decreased in April. Our services survey employment tracker decreased by 0.9pt to54.8 and our manufacturing survey employment tracker decreased 1.3pt to 56.8.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas increased by 8% month-over-month in April, after increasing by 5% in March (SA by GS).
  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 247k in April, below consensus expectations. We believe the ADP miss reflected the combination of slowing underlying job growth and a drag from the other inputs to the ADP model.

  ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:

  • Public health. After reaching new highs in December and early January, domestic covid infections fell sharply in the early spring. And while infections have begun to rise again from low levels, consumer and business activity has not been significantly impacted. For example, as shown in Exhibit 3, dining activity has been relatively stable at pre-pandemic levels since mid-March. Forecasts assume a roughly100k rise in leisure-sector payrolls in Friday’s report (mom sa).

  

  • Evolution of the seasonal factors. The April seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years (+787k in April 2021 vs. +897k in April 2016), likely reflecting the seasonal adjustment refitting to the weaker-than-expected April payroll prints during the pandemic. This lower seasonal hurdle represents a tailwind of roughly 100k, other things equal, in our view. However, we still view April seasonality as a net negative factor due to binding constraints on labor supply duringa rehiring month.
  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims decreased during the April payroll month, averaging 175k per week vs. 209k in March. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 139k from survey week to survey week.
  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—decreased by 2.5pt to +44.6. JOLTS job openings increased by 205k in March to an all-time high of 11.5mn

  The take home message is simple: bulls should pray for a huge miss, the bigger the better, because between negative GDP and a big hit to the “overheating labor market” stories, the Fed’s aggressive hiking and QT will last at most a few months, before it is followed by its logical successor: ZIRP (or NIRP) and QE, both of which will sent stocks, gold and cryptos to new all time highs.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 21:34

• Texas Faces "Record High" Temps As Grid Operator Warns Of Above-Average Power Usage 
  Texas Faces “Record High” Temps As Grid Operator Warns Of Above-Average Power Usage 

  An early-season heatwave could send temperatures across some parts of Texas into the upper 90s and or even triple digits this weekend and into early next week. Texas’s power-grid manager warned that power consumption could be abnormally high for this year. 

  On Saturday, much of the state will record temperatures above 95 degrees, except for the upper Texas coast and portions of East Texas. 

  Dallas is expected to reach the upper 90s by Saturday afternoon, while Austin, San Antonio, and Midland could reach 100 degrees. 

  “Dallas doesn’t typically see its first 95-degree day until late May. If Austin and San Antonio hit 100 degrees, it would be incredibly early, as the first 100-degree temperature there is typically not until early July in Austin and late June in San Antonio.

  “More than a dozen daily record highs are in jeopardy of being tied or broken on Saturday in the Lone Star State, including 94 degrees in Houston, 97 degrees in Amarillo, 100 degrees in San Antonio, and 103 degrees in San Angelo.

  

  “The heat will continue into Sunday across Texas. Once again, nearly the entire state could see high temperatures near or above 95 degrees,” said Fox Weather. 

  The heat is expected to linger well into next week. Commodity Wx Group provides several weather models showing Houston could record a temperature above 100 degrees that may last through Monday. 

  

  The threat of unseasonably warm weather has already concerned Texas’s power-grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, otherwise known as ERCOT. They said “larger-than-normal” power consumption would be observed due to a surge in cooling demand. 

  Commodity research firm Criterion Research said, “ERCOT’s power load is expected to climb far above normal for this time of year, with Monday’s demand forecast ramping to nearly 55 GW as heat moves in across Texas.” 

  

  According to Bloomberg data, Texas day ahead on-peak average power price for Friday has already hit $195.57 a megawatt-hour, the highest since June. 

  

  In recent days, the prospects of higher cooling demand in Texas have sent natural gas futures soaring on supply concerns. June contracts jumped above $8/MMBtu on Wednesday and, as of Thursday morning, are around $8.50//MMBtu, a level not seen since late 2008. 

  

  There was only one other time natgas prices were this high for this time of year; that was 2008. 

  

  Bespoke Weather Services said, “if this kind of heat sticks around, and that is a risk in the South, where we have been leaning hotter with our summer ideas … We easily will go over $10 in prompt month over the next several weeks.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 21:20

• 10 Ways Information-Shapers Have Infiltrated Our Institutions
  10 Ways Information-Shapers Have Infiltrated Our Institutions

  Authored by Sharyl Attkisson via The Epoch Times,

  Few matters are so important as the integrity of the information we receive and the recent degradation in its reliability.

  

  The recent leak of a Supreme Court draft related to the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion case underscores how corrupted so many of our important institutions have become by those dedicated to shaping public opinion in a sometimes-dishonest way.

  Nearly every facet of our American institutions has been infiltrated by activists, corporate and political propagandists, and even criminals.

  Here are 10 key institutions that have been successfully infiltrated by information-shapers:

  

  1. Corporations

  High-profile corporations increasingly do business, or withhold business, on the basis of political considerations in an effort to sway public opinion.

  Additionally, they take part in removing the ability of some people they disagree with to sell products, conduct bank transactions, or otherwise operate their businesses. One recent example is retailers, including Kohl’s and Bed, Bath & Beyond, banning popular “My Pillow” products from the company owned by conservative and ardent Trump supporter Mike Lindell.

  

  2. Sports

  Sports organizations have stepped into the political realm to try to force some views and censor or punish those who take opposing viewpoints. One recent example is Major League Baseball stripping the All-Star Game from Atlanta over a Georgia law designed to strengthen election integrity following a troubled and error-riddled 2020 election.

  Sports institutions also are involved in trying to sway public discourse on the issue of males competing as females on girls’ and women’s teams, such as the swimmer born as Will Thomas who switched names to Lia Thomas and joined the women’s team at the University of Pennsylvania, setting numerous women’s records.

  

  3. Big Tech

  Big Tech’s well-known fake fact checks, censorship, and disinformation have manipulated the information landscape in a more dramatic and chilling way than most any other factor. The biggest example is Big Tech’s censorship of arguably the most important political figure of our time: Donald Trump.

  Recent major examples of the sector fostering disinformation include amplifying claims that the Hunter Biden laptop story was Russian disinformation and censoring stories about it; repeatedly backing false information related to COVID-19, while censoring accurate information or legitimate scientific views; and falsely labeling the COVID-19 lab origin story as a conspiracy theory.

  

  4. Public Health Agencies

  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other public health agencies have increasingly departed from the realm of public interest and science in order to advance false narratives and disinformation. Recent examples include the head of CDC, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, falsely claiming that people who are vaccinated don’t carry and can’t spread COVID-19; and the agency knowingly putting out disinformation that falsely claimed original studies showed the vaccine’s benefit for people who’d already had COVID-19.

  Another example is National Institutes of Health (NIH) officials Drs. Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci privately working with the media to smear and discredit highly credentialed scientists who disagreed with the lockdown approach to COVID-19.

  

  5. Congress

  Members of Congress in both parties have gotten caught taking part in questionable information-shaping and manipulation, particularly when it comes to pharmaceutical-related material. One recent example is members of Congress unilaterally writing letters to or contacting Big Tech in order to get certain topics or scientific studies and discussions controversialized or banned.

  Some of the members of Congress who are engaged in the efforts are the same ones responsible for their own high-profile disinformation campaigns. A recent example of that is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who repeatedly pushed false and misleading information on the Trump–Russia narrative, lobbying Big Tech to censor certain information related to COVID-19.

  

  6. The Executive Branch

  Having lost the most powerful tool in its arsenal to shape information, the executive branch has now formed its own extra-Constitutional agency to serve that function: the Disinformation Governance Board. The named head of the board, Nina Jankowicz, has widely furthered disinformation in the past.

  

  7. The Media

  With blogs and quasi-news outlets such as Axios, Slate, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, Vox, Salon, Talking Points Memo, and Rolling Stone joining more traditional partisan outlets such as the Los Angeles Times, Politico, MSNBC, NBC, The Washington Post, CNN, and The New York Times in dominating the information landscape—while their conservative equivalents are controversialized—the media has proven to rank close to Big Tech in terms of their influence in further misinformation.

  

  8. Academia and Public Schools

  America’s colleges and universities have taken increasingly heavy-handed roles in terms of squelching free speech and free thought (when it leans against progressive or radical views), in exchange for a managed environment where only carefully filtered views are allowed, and specific language, expressions, and behavior are mandated.

  Many public school systems have grown stronger in efforts to install social engineering and political ideology in teachings and policies. Recent examples include policies involving the use of pronouns when referring to transgender students, and the instruction of critical race theory.

  

  9. Dept. of Justice, FBI, and Other Intel Agencies

  The very agencies that should remain furthest above the fray with clean hands have found themselves repeatedly muddied involving major investigations and their political influence efforts. One recent example is the criminal conviction of FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith, who falsified a document in order to spy on Trump campaign associate Carter Page. Though multiple people would have known about the crime—possibly participating, and staying silent—only Clinesmith was charged.

  He was only charged with a relatively minor crime in relation to the significance, and avoided any prison time. Meanwhile, the agency hasn’t offered any apology or redress to Page. Other examples include the Department of Justice targeting school parents as possible terrorists, and lopsided prosecution efforts regarding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach, compared to many more violent events and crimes.

  Additionally, intel operators have taken major roles both in front of the camera and behind the scenes to try to shape public opinion using false information and propaganda. One recent example is the “more than 50 former intelligence officials” who “signed a letter casting doubt on the provenance” of an accurate New York Post story about the Hunter Biden laptop.

  

  10. The Supreme Court

  Whether it’s the leak to multiple press outlets about Justice Stephen Breyer’s impending retirement or the more problematic new leak of the Roe v. Wade abortion draft, information-shapers have infiltrated the highest court in the land.

  Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 21:00

• David Stockman Slams Sleepy Joe's $33 Billion Abomination
  David Stockman Slams Sleepy Joe’s $33 Billion Abomination

  Authored by David Stockman via LewRockwell.com,

  Donald Trump has been well relegated to the sidelines of America’s political debate, but the TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) lives on, more virulent than ever. The latter is what’s behind Washington’s descent into the current mindless Ukraine war fever—an outbreak of irrationality that makes even the post-9/11 hysteria seem like an orderly discourse.

  At the center of this madness, of course, is Vladimir Putin, the Devil Incarnate. Prior to February 24th he had attained that designation in Imperial Washington not just because of his rough methods of governance in Russia or small time military forays in the 2008 South Ossetia/Georgia dispute or in putting down alleged terrorists in Chechnya, but because according to the RussiaGate hoax he had thrown the election to Donald Trump in 2016, thereby shockingly interrupting the rule of the bipartisan duopoly.

  Accordingly, for the next four years the apparatus of official Washington–including the MSM in cahoots with the national security state—did not cease in its vilification of Putin via the running RussiaGate Hoax, the phony Mueller investigation, the rogue impeachment proceedings and the nonstop MSM linkage of Trump’s unwelcome presence in the Oval Office with the nefarious doings of Vlad Putin.

  At length, the TDS got so virulent and all-consuming inside the beltway that the resulting enmity toward Donald Trump became coterminous with the demonization of Putin. Consequently, when Trump got ushered off the stage (barely) by the American electorate in November 2020, Washington’s war on the Donald simply got re-focused with fevered intensity on Putin. In the target practice galleries of Washington politics, Vlad became the Donald’s avatar.

  Needless to say, with the politicians in both parties foaming at the mouth against Putin, the Deep State and military-industrial complex had a field day hyping Russia into a national security threat that was not remotely justified, but which did massively distort policy.

  That includes perpetuating the Donald’s insanely bloated national security budget even further to $813 billion in the FY 2023 Biden request; stonewalling Russia’s reasonable proposals of December to reset security arrangements in eastern Europe, which would have precluded the devastation now besetting Ukraine entirely; and, after February 24th, turning the intramural dispute between Russia and its historic vassal and step-child, Ukraine, into a purported history-defining contest between peaceful Democracy and belligerent Autocracy—a struggle that justified launching a global Sanctions War against the very essence of the dollar-based payments and trading system upon which America’s tenuous prosperity precariously rests.

  As a result of TDS-come-Putinphobia, Washington is now on a doomsday path that has no rational end game except the risk of WW III, even though the objective facts of the matter scream in the opposite direction. That is to say, in an objective and rational world, Washington would not be touching the Russia/Ukraine dispute with a 100-foot pole because it implicates nothing of consequence for America’s homeland security.

  In the first instance, Russia is not a direct military threat to America notwithstanding some of its fancy new weapons and ultra high speed missiles. America’s triad nuclear defense is still fully in tact and is as lethal as ever. That means as between Russia and the US on the nuclear front, mutual assured destruction (MAD) still prevails, meaning that Russia would never launch a nuclear attack against America because of all the things Putin is, suicidal is not one of them.

  By the same token, the idea that Russia poses a credible conventional military threat to the American homeland was always ludicrous, but is now laughable. In ten weeks it has not been able to subdue a weak neighbor with which it shares a 1,900 Km open land border (no mountains, no waterways, no walls!). So where in the world comes the historically unprecedented armada of carrier battle groups, massive air fleets and endless divisions of tanks and mechanized infantry required to invade and occupy the US of A, located is it is 8,000 Km away on the far side of central Eurasia and beyond the great Atlantic and Pacific moats?

  Besides, the GDP of Russia is $1.6 trillion versus $24 trillion for the US. And for better or worse a Russian attack on America would bring NATO’s article 5 into play, thereby mobilizing $43 trillion of total NATO GDP, which is 27X more economic girth than possessed by Russia; and also $1.2 trillion of combined NATO military budgets, which is 18X Russia’s $65 billion military budget.

  So, no, there is no plausible Russian military threat to the American homeland, meaning that Washington’s scary story stuff arises entirely from the fictional realm of lurid Warfare State propaganda.

  For instance, there is the baseless notion that Ukraine is just a stepping stone in Putin’s grand plan for recreating the former Soviet Union. And unimpeded in Ukraine, he would not hesitate to roll through Poland, the Baltics and the Balkans in the creation of an empire that would eventually dominate Western Europe, too, leaving the US all alone, cowering behind the Atlantic and Pacific shorelines.

  Alas, anything remotely leaning in this direction amounts to the unalloyed humbug of retired military officers and deep staters who are paid by think tanks and the MSM to scare the living daylights out of the public and the politicians alike.

  In turn, that’s so they will more readily acquiesce to the $813 billion of military budgets that are not only a colossal waste, but a fount of the schemes and threats which actually undermine national security. The Washington sponsored Maidan coup of February 2014, which fractured Ukraine’s fragile polity and opened up the civil war against the Russian speaking Donbas that has now morphed into a prelude to WW III, is only the latest example.

  The fact is, Putin is a Churchill level historian and the Russian leadership still has memory muscle that goes back to Soviet times. They know that Poland, the Baltics and much of the non-Serbian Balkans is a hotbed of deep anti-Russian sentiment that would make even an attempt at conquest a bloody, economically draining fiasco.

  Putin may not appeal to the sensibilities of the dandies who scribble out Cold War 2.0 screeds at the Council on Foreign Relations, but his methodical crushing of the Ukrainian resistance demonstrates that he is the Cool Hand Vlad of the present era. As such, he is not about to fall for hopelessly impossible enterprises like the recreation of the old Soviet Union.

  To the contrary, his operation in Ukraine is not the prelude to recreating the Soviet Union, but the coda to unfinished business in the 1300-year history of Russia and its “borderlands”, the latter term being the Russian meaning of the word “Ukraine”.

  Accordingly, scratch any current map of the battle front in Ukraine, and what lies on the Russian controlled side to the east and along the shorelines of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov shows up as “Novorossiya” (“New Russia”) on any map made between 1764 and 1917.

  Even here, it is not crude Russian revanchism that motivated Putin’s desperate last resort invasion of February 24th; it was for better or worse, Moscow’s frustration with the relentless push of Ukraine into NATO on a de facto basis, and the relentless assault on the Russian speaking populations of the Donbas that over the eight years after the February 2014 coup had led to upwards of 14,000 civilian deaths and the utter destruction of towns and cities in the breakaway Republics every bit as horrific as the nightly MSM fare with respect to Russian bombing on the other side of the battle front.

  So in a world not besotted with the TDS, the alternative course of action would be straight forward. No Washington sanctions; no taking sides in the Ukraine civil war and age-old disputes between Russia and its vassal; no supplying of weapons to the hopelessly outgunned Ukraine military that only prolongs the war; and a complete Washington renunciation of any interest in extending NATO to Ukraine or other ex-Soviet Republics, along with a pullback of US forces and missile installations from former Warsaw Pact countries that are now members of NATO.

  Under that non-TDS scenario, this is what Washington would do in the name of homeland security and it would bring an end to the war and the pointless destruction of Ukraine in a heartbeat.

  Needless to say, under this benign scenario, Joe Biden would not be asking Congress for $33 billion of additional Ukraine war funding, including more than $20 billion in “security and military assistance,” $8.5 billion in economic aid, and $3 billion in “humanitarian assistance” And, of course, this comes on top of the $4.6 billion in security assistance the U.S. has given Ukraine since January 2021, including $3.7 billion since Russian forces invaded the country in February.

  All of that is an abomination, midwifed by the TDS and resulting irrational demonization of Putin. Yet the truth is, America’s homeland security does not require that a single dime be spent on Ukraine!

  Likewise, it also most definitely does not require a single Congressional cowboy or cowgirl to be visiting a remote corner of the earth that does not have a damn thing to do with the security, liberty and prosperity of the American people.

  As it was, the crew pictured below spent a little over three hours on the ground in Kiev conducting a glorified photo-op and “ata boy”.

  The delegation included a “who’s who” of the Dem House leadership—none of whom had the slightest idea of where they were as a historical matter or understood that the silly marionette they meet with had nothing more in mind than dragging America into a shooting war that is none of its business.

  

  Indeed, in the pre-TDS times the Dem leadership would have been not on a junket to Kiev, but at the White House demanding an end to the Sanctions War on Russia, a halt to the destructive flow of arms from NATO and the urgent return to the conference table to negotiate an end to the carnage—even if it meant that partition of Ukraine, which after all that has now transpired cannot be reconstituted as a unitary state, anyway.

  As it happened, however, the meet and greet delegation included the following: Reps. Gregory Meeks of New York, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Adam Schiff of California, the chairman of the House Intelligence panel, and Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, who leads the House Rules Committee, Democratic Reps. Bill Keating of Massachusetts, Barbara Lee of California and Jason Crow of Colorado.

  These people shouldn’t have bothered. They weren’t on a serious foreign policy mission, but had come to virtue signal that they still hate Donald Trump with all their hearts and are willing to start WWIII by making war on his Moscow avatar.

  Indeed, in a fitting it benediction, Nancy Pelosi let loose of her best TDS idiocy:

  “We are visiting you to say thank you for your fight for freedom, that we’re on a frontier of freedom and that your fight is a fight for everyone. And so our commitment is to be there for you until the fight is done.”

  Alas, she may be right, but not in the way she imagines.

  *  *  *

  Reprinted with permission from David Stockman’s Contra Corner.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 20:20

• US Intel Assisted In Sinking Russian Flagship Vessel: Officials Claim Bombshell Escalation
  US Intel Assisted In Sinking Russian Flagship Vessel: Officials Claim Bombshell Escalation

  Less than 24 hours after The New York Times issued a provocative report citing unnamed US officials who are celebrating that American intelligence-sharing with Ukraine’s military has helped take out multiple Russian generals since the Feb.24 invasion, NBC News is out with yet another bombshell claim sourced to the deep state US intel officials. 

  Amid what seems escalation after escalation, and new revelations of Washington’s deepening and perhaps increasingly direct role in fighting Russia in Ukraine, NBC brings us this doozy… “Intelligence shared by the U.S. helped Ukraine sink the Russian cruiser Moskva, U.S. officials told NBC News, confirming an American role in perhaps the most embarrassing blow to Vladimir Putin’s troubled invasion of Ukraine.”

  

  As a reminder of just how hugely significant the claim is – and just how dangerous in terms of representing a massive escalation – the Moskva was considered the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, had 510 crewmen on board before Neptune anti-cruise ship missiles scored a direct hit in mid-April, and was the most embarrassing single blow to President Putin’s war effort of the whole conflict thus far.’

  “The attack happened after Ukrainian forces asked the Americans about a ship sailing in the Black Sea south of Odesa, U.S. officials told NBC News,” the report continues. “The U.S. identified it as the Moskva, officials said, and helped confirm its location, after which the Ukrainians targeted the ship.” This comes after the NY Times revealed in a report the night prior that much of the intel-sharing is focused on Russian troop and equipment movements.

  According to further details based on anonymous US senior officials:

  The U.S. did not know in advance that Ukraine was going to target the Moskva, officials said, and was not involved in the decision to strike. Maritime intelligence is shared with Ukraine to help it defend against attack from Russian ships, officials added.

  The U.S. role in the sinking has not been previously reported.

  Biden admin officials in the days after the Moskva sinking had been relatively silent, possibly suggesting that they knew more about the details than what their quiet public stance let on.

  In case your wondering how WWIII starts… https://t.co/oQjJvOcd8U

  — Amber Smith (@AmberSmithUSA) May 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The April 15 event had initially also been met with lack of answers from Moscow as it attempted to deal with the crisis of its flagship missile cruiser sinking to the bottom of the Black Sea after it was hit off Odessa, and as it later said all the crew were evacuated. However some Ukrainian and Western officials said the ship suffered casualties.

  It goes without saying that this fresh NBC report will be viewed by Moscow as an outrageous acknowledged escalation by Washington, though so far Russian leadership’s public response has been rather muted…

  “Russian military is well aware that the US, UK and NATO are constantly transmitting intel Ukraine”, Peskov says

  — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) May 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Kremlin had previously warned it would hold external countries supplying arms and other forms of assistance “responsible” – and that “decision-making” centers including Kiev would come under increased attack. Meanwhile, cruise missile strikes even as far west as Lviv do appear to be expanding this week.

  There is intelligence openness or transparency and then there is this idiocy. Leaks like this by the Biden anniversary are beyond moronic. This will get people killed. No questions https://t.co/pMu3KrkkeK

  — Ukranian Hacker Balding 大老板 (@BaldingsWorld) May 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Indeed it seems that these intentional “leaks” to the media, likely as part of a deliberate strategy of seeking to intimidate Russia in hopes it will more quickly back off its military operations, will instead only serve to ratchet things further as broader great power tensions hit boiling point.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 19:46

• "What A Crazy 24 Hours"
  “What A Crazy 24 Hours”

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  What a crazy 24 hours!

  I do want to buy risk into the close, but am still a bit cautious because

  • 1) my childish charts point to more downside on nasdaq
  • 2) so many people expected the FOMC meeting to mark a turning point that money got put to work yesterday and shorts came off, exposing the market
  • 3) and yes, I understand, TQQQ is not “the” driver, I think it is symbolic of risk and buy the dip… it started seeing heavy inflows April 26th. It is lower than at any point since then (down 17% today as I type). On rebalancing alone, it will sell into close, but if we see capitulation from recent dip buyers, we have more downside.

  I am the least bearish I’ve been in some time, but too scared to get bullish

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 19:37

• "The Market Is Softening, Full Stop": Zillow Plunges After Company Issues Dire Housing Outlook
  “The Market Is Softening, Full Stop”: Zillow Plunges After Company Issues Dire Housing Outlook

  It’s one thing for a fringe, tinfoil, conspiracy theory website such as this one to warn (repeatedly, for months) that with mortgage rates rapidly approaching 6%, the US housing market is on the verge of a vicious collapse, as discussed articles such as these:

  • Housing Affordability Is About To Crash The Most On Record
  • Cracks Appear In Housing Market As Sellers Begin To Lower Asking Prices
  • Biggest Housing Affordability Shock In History Incoming
  • Worst Ever US Home Affordability Is Just 0.5% Away

  It’s another for one of the biggest housing-market linked companies to confirm just that.

  On Thursday, Zillow plunged as much as 13% in late trading Tuesday after a dismal outlook stoked investor fears that rising mortgage rates will spark the next crash in the US housing market.

  The company, which last year suffered tremendous losses of more than $500 million in its home-flipping segment resulting in a record wrtide-down, projected that its internet, media and technology (IMT) segment will bring in $134 million to $169 million in EBITDA in the second quarter, according to a shareholder letter published Thursday.

  While home sales usually pick up in the spring, Zillow’s outlook indicates that soaring mortgage rates and low inventory of for-sale homes will finally slow activity.

  

  Zillow co-founder and CEO Rich Barton, played both good cop and bad cop, and in the company’s press release issued a somewhat upbeat outlook: “while the housing market outlook may be choppy in the near term, today’s first-quarter results, together with our strong brand, audience, and balance sheet, demonstrate how well-positioned and prepared Zillow is to forge ahead.”

  However, in an interview with Bloomberg, his takes was far less cheerful: “The market is softening, full stop,” Barton said, adding that the toughest macro lens is that inventory levels continue to plummet. Flat transactions would be a good year this year, and I don’t know if we’ll get there.”

  As Bloomberg writes, Zillow’s dire outlook caps a tumultuous period during which it shut down a foray into flipping homes and shifted its focus to a “housing super app” to integrate home tours, financing, seller services and the company’s partner network.  Barton said that shuttering Zillow Offers had lightened his company’s balance sheet and left it in a better position to weather a slowing market.
  “It’s a great way to go into a headwind,” he said. “We can go into this headwind confidently, with our eyes focused on building out the super app.”

  It wasn’t all bad news: the (still) hot housing market in the first three months of 2022 boosted Zillow’s advertising business and helped speed efforts to wind down the home-flipping operation, called Zillow Offers. The company generated a total $220 million in adjusted Ebitda for the quarter. Analysts expected $156 million, the average in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. 

  In hopes of preventing a stock plunge, Zillow also authorized an additional $1 billion in share buybacks, but it wasn’t meant to be and ZG tumbled more than 13% after hours.

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 19:27

• Poop-Boom: Manure Supplies Tighten As Fertilizer Prices Soar 
  Poop-Boom: Manure Supplies Tighten As Fertilizer Prices Soar 

  Manure has become a hot commodity. U.S. farmers hunting for organic fertilizer come as chemical fertilizers are in short supply or at sky-high prices. According to Reuters, soaring demand for manure has unleashed a poop shortage. 

  “Manure is absolutely a hot commodity,” said industry consultant Allen Kampschnieder, who works for Nebraska-based Nutrient Advisors.

  Kampschnieder said cattle feeders selling waste are sold out for 2022. “We’ve got waiting lists,” he said. 

  Farmers quickly switched to animal manure, a mixture of animal feces and straw, because the prices for industrial fertilizer jumped since the European natural gas crisis in the winter of 2021 and Western sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine in March. 

  

  This week, Canada-based Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest fertilizer company, warned that fertilizer disruptions “could last well beyond 2022.” If so, this could drive even more farmers into spreading poop on fields. 

  Agriculture experts say manure is not a complete replacement for chemical fertilizer because it lacks some nutrients. Plus, there’s not enough to overtake the chemical fertilizer market share in the U.S., hence why shortages are already materializing. 

  Meanwhile, the Biden administration said it was great news chemical fertilizer shortages were happening because it would force farmers to “go green” by using “natural solutions like manure.” 

  However, Chris Jones, a research engineer and water quality expert at the University of Iowa, said manure is not all that green. If spread on fields, manure can cause serious water contamination issues to nearby streams, lakes, and groundwater. 

  Going green comes at a cost … but that has yet to stop demand as farmers must use some form of crop nutrients to maintain robust yields at the end of harvest. 

  “We’re definitely seeing farmers move toward manure with the increase in fertilizer prices,” said Jim Monroe, spokesperson for Smithfield Foods, the world’s largest pork producer. 

  Kampschnieder said that farmers across the country are sniffing out new poop supplies without any luck. This has caused solid manure in Nebraska to jump to $11 to $14 per ton, up from $5 to $8 per ton. 

  The poop boom has also moved into heavy machinery and equipment needed to spread manure on fields. It’s a stinky business, but a lot of money is being made. 

  “We have people looking for equipment right away, and we’re sold out for six months,” said Husky Farm Equipment Ltd.’s President Walter Grose. His company sells spreading equipment and can’t keep up with demand. 

  Dan Andersen, an associate professor at Iowa State University who specializes in manure management, warned there’s not enough manure in the U.S. to replace commercial fertilizer completely. 

  There’s also a risk that manure could become even more valuable in the second half of this year, as U.S. livestock herds are expected to decline. This means poop production will shrink, shooting up prices even further. 

  Demand for poop is soaring under the Biden administration partly because they sanctioned Russia and Belarus (the world’s top fertilizer exporters) for the invasion of Ukraine. The admin’s ability to spin the transition of the chemical fertilizer to manure because it’s the “green” thing to do is nothing short of disinformation. As for now, US farmers are desperate for poop, and supplies are tight.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 19:20

• Obama, Biden Largely To Blame For $1.6 Trillion Student Debt Crisis: Author
  Obama, Biden Largely To Blame For $1.6 Trillion Student Debt Crisis: Author

  By John Ransom of The Epoch Times

  As President Joe Biden considers some form of loan forgiveness for college borrowers, student loans in America have been a slow-boiling crisis for almost a decade now.

  

  One expert critic who has been following the crisis lays much of the blame for the $1.6 trillion loan debacle at the feet of two men at the very top of the U.S. government: former President Barrack Obama and Biden.

  “This is far worse than the Savings and Loan crisis, or the sub-prime auto crisis and even the subprime mortgage crisis,” Allen Collinge, author of the book “The Student Loan Scam: The Most Oppressive Debt in U.S. History and How We Can Fight Back,” told the Epoch Times.

  “These two guys are some of the people most responsible for permanently saddling so many Americans with debt for which they have no way out but dying,” Collinge added.

  Two factors have come together, said Collinge, to create what he calls the biggest loan crisis in U.S. history.

  The first was the removal of bankruptcy protections that people enjoy from all other debt in America.

  “Among all living, serving elected officials, Biden literally is most culpable for removing bankruptcy protections from these loans, which really is the core of this problem,” said Collinge, who runs an organization called Student Loan Justice, which is seeking cancellation of all student loan debt in return for the end of the federal student loan program.

  Serving as a member, and then eventually, as the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Biden was instrumental in removing bankruptcy protection from, at first, government-backed student loans, and then, from privately-made student loans.

  “Joe Biden bears a large amount of responsibility for passage of the bankruptcy bill,” Ed Boltz, president of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, told International Business Times in 2015.

  

  Then Came Obama

  Those pieces of legislation that denied students bankruptcy protection dove-tailed into the rapid expansion of student loans for which then-President Obama stumped in 2010 as he federalized the student loan program

  To get students to borrow more, Obama pulled out all the stops, as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) claimed the move to federalization would save the country $60 billion.

  “This is great for the country,” Then-Education Secretary Arne Duncan told NPR in an interview at the time the measure was approved.

  “It’s one of these sort of miraculous, once-in-a-lifetime opportunities, and we could put $60 billion minimum there behind students simply by removing subsidies to banks and not going back to taxpayers for another dime,” Duncan added.

  

  Then the president sent out First Lady Michelle Obama as the face of an effort which the Obama White House called “Reaching the ‘North Star’ by 2020,” which encouraged everybody to go back to some sort of higher education institution and get another degree, financed of course, by the U.S. government.

  Students were encouraged to take out student loans that were termed by the White House “financial aid eligibility that can make college affordability a reality.”

  During the Obama years, student loans climbed from about $700 billion to nearly $1.4 trillion, edging out credit card debt by 2012.

  Prospective students were told to host their own “signing-day” party where they signed up with a college, university, or vocational school for higher education, just like college football players and basketball players do when they signed on with schools.

  The signing day came with its own 16-page instruction booklet from the White House that told students “an education is worth way more than just a higher paycheck—it’s the most valuable asset a person can ever have. It is something they will have their entire life.”

  One question that remained unanswered in those books, however, was how students would pay off their debt.

  But Obama’s efforts paid off as student debt rose from $12,434, per student debtor in 1992, according to the Pew Research Center, to the $40,904 that’s owed per student debtor today, according to EducationData.org.

  Increasingly, it looks like student loan debt is debt that will follow students their entire life; a debt that has turned that “asset” the White House told them to prize, into a millstone around students’ necks.

  And that $60 billion in savings that was forecasted by the CBO that then-Education Secretary Duncan was touting? It turns out that instead of saving the country $60 billion, it cost $400 billion, not including any loan forgiveness.

  “CBO miscalculated the cost of the Healthcare and Reconciliation Act [that federalized student loans] by $503 billion, before factoring in President Biden’s student loan bailouts. Congress may not have passed this bill had CBO appropriately scored it,” House Republicans wrote in a letter this week to CBO Director Philip Swagel, demanding to know how the CBO got the figures so wrong.

  The Epoch Times has reached out to the White House, CBO, and Obama for comment.

  

  The Obama-Biden Legacy Comes Due

  According to figures gathered by Collinge that he gleaned from the Department of Education (DOE), 63 percent of all money borrowed in student loans are from people over the age of 35, who on average owe $41,900 worth of debt.

  That compares to the under-35 crowd which has an average debt of $25,300.

  “The big growth in loans has been in graduate schools,” Jason Delisle, now a research fellow at the Urban Institute think tank, told PBS in 2017, sounding an early alarm bell.

  “Yet there’s just no heat on what are people getting for these degrees. On the undergraduate side, there are loan limits and concern around defaults and earnings. On the graduate school side, there’s none of that,” added Delisle.

  And graduate studies are big money makers for schools, often making the difference between being profitable and closing down, say some experts.

  Slate recently called Master’s degree programs “the biggest scam in higher education,” citing one expert who called schools’ Master’s programs “largely unregulated cash cows that help shore up their bottom line.”

  Even before the pandemic hit, the DOE said only one in four borrowers were paying down both principal and interest on loans.

  While it’s bad in every state, especially hard hit by student borrowing are the states of the Deep South.

  The worst-hit is Mississippi where the debt to income for student loans is nearly 1:1.

  According to Collinge, what makes this loan crisis different than, say, the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s or the subprime mortgage crisis of the 2000s is the unlimited collection powers of the federal government, the lack of any statute of limitations on the debt and the fact that the debtors have no recourse to bankruptcy protections that our Founders intended them to have.

  He cited one documented case where he shows a debtor who borrowed $26,000 as a student loan has paid $93,593.54 in interest payments and less than $1.00 of principal.

  As of today, the principal balance is still $132,174 for this 59-year-old woman facing retirement shortly.

  

  “The harm caused by this predatory lending system created by Biden—and others—and exacerbated by Obama, is particularly acute for seniors, who are seeing their social security and disability income garnished, often despite having repaid far, far more than they originally borrowed,” said Collinge.

  This failure to disclose the actual terms upon which borrowers are taking out loans was a great concern to the federal government during the subprime mortgage crisis that saw the government take action against mortgage lenders who paid fines of over $234 billion for actions that are essentially fraudulent, with at least 59 bankers going to jail.

  But somehow, when the federal government started loaning the money to students, those same rules stopped applying.

  “If any other lending system did this, it would be criminal, people would be in handcuffs,” concluded Collinge.

  So as the argument rages in Congress about whether student loans should be forgiven, or go into collection, Collinge wants people to remember one simple thing: Stop listening to the people who actually caused the problem to begin with.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 19:00

• Why Did The Market Just Break? Nomura Explains
  Why Did The Market Just Break? Nomura Explains

  Yesterday, while stocks were surging in the aftermath of the Powell presser during which the Fed chair took away the possibility of a 75bps rate hike, we joked that the bullish market reaction is precisely the opposite of what bulls – or Powell – want…

  Start the countdown to the intermeeting 75bps rate hike

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … as the easing in financial conditions (i.e., higher stocks) would undo almost all of the tightening from the incremental 50bps rate hike (first of many… or not many, now that the BOE confirmed that all developed central banks are hiking right into a recession). And just to make sure the market understood what was going on, we repeated it again this morning.

  Six Fed speakers tomorrow. They will make it very clear that Powell does not like stocks surging

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Which brings us to today’s remarkable U-turn in stocks, and the complete reversal in stocks observed yesterday.

  

  But first, a quick recap of what sparked the post-Fed rally, which as we explained yesterday was nothing more than the latest giant gamma squeeze, an observation confirmed this morning by Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who writes the following:

  I believe the scenario which might have scared [Powell] the most would have been going so hard with the potential “50bps May / 75bps June / 75bps July” which would have gotten them to “Neutral-ish” by end of Summer and stuck sitting on their hands…but then, risk being caught in a situation where the MoM inflation data stays persistently higher while unemployment data makes new lows—which would then see the market “expect even more” again, off what was already a “75bps hikes prior” and risking an enormous “policy / communications error” hawkish-escalation “hard landing” accident

  As this was clearly then perceived by a VERY front-footed “hawkish” market as “UNDER-delivering” on said expectations for a “hawkish messaging,” we then saw Stocks blow higher thereafter, thanks to a massive “Short Gamma” squeeze and the corroborated “Vanna sling-shot” feedback loop we have been discussing, as implied Vols were just clobbered with the “hawkish left-tail” then viewed as almost essentially “removed” from the scenario distribution going-forward.

  Precisely what we said yesterday, but recall we also said the following: “while it is easy to turn optimistic here, a warning: the last thing the Fed wants is for its 50bps rate hike – the biggest in 22 years – to be viewed as a green light to more risk on. In fact, if we indeed see stocks surging in the next few days, we fully expect the next crew of Fed talking heads which will hit the mic as soon as Friday to warn that not only is a 75bps – and even as 100bps – rate hike on the table, but that an emergency, inter-meeting announcement is distinctly positive if algos ignore the Fed call at their own peril.”

  Which brings us to the even more important question of “where to from here” which prompted a witty rejoinder Charlie McElligott who writes today that “a client said something which struck me two days ago: “Bulls and Bears both want a rally.”

  That, of course, corroborates with what we said yesterday and Nomura’s feedback from many in the “impulse FCI tightening” bear-camp, who have been saying they wanted to fade a large post-Fed relief / mechanical rally.

  To the Nomura strategist, this then means the best way to continue trading this environment is “Short Vol, Short Delta.”

  Practically, key levels for Bulls to reclaim from here are the “Zero Gamma” lines—where it truly feels that “THE” force which continues to drive the market are these “short Gamma” hedging pinch-points, where particularly SPX and QQQ are within reach—but still below—reclaiming this as a “stabilizing” force moving-forward:

  • SPX / SPY $Gamma -$1.2B (jumping up to 24.2%ile now), “Zero Gamma” neutral line up at 4314 (currently nearing “Neutral Gamma vs Spot” but still “Short”)
  • QQQ $Gamma +$139.9mm (jumping up to 60.0%ile now), “Zero Gamma” neutral line up $327.02 (currently nearing “Neutral Gamma vs Spot” but still “Short”)
  • IWM $Gamma -$96.1mm (jumping up to 36.4%ile now), “Zero Gamma” neutral line up at $200.93 (currently still VERY “Short Gamma vs Spot”)

  

  

  

  Charlie then looks at history to make an “analog” observation; specifically he took a look at days when the Fed hiked Rates and the SPX was up by more than either +1% or more than +2%. The read?  Both show forward returns are locally “mixed at best” with a median SPX trade that is LOWER out 3m thereafter for both “triggers” (which is very rare for 3m windows in SPX tbh)…while revealing some especially “cringe” dates on the backtest:

  1% moves on Fed hikes:

  

  2% moves on Fed hikes:

  

  McElligott concludes by noting that the Fed’s “reset” of expectations to “buy time” for data to fit their view “feels risky to me — I mean, we are talking an attempt at threading the needle, but with a MOAB — as it risks both another “hawkish escalation” down the road which would almost certainly then see the market price “policy error / hard landing” bets even more aggressively, as the Fed would then be pushing into outright “restrictive” territory.”

  Of course, by extension if a market rally is the opposite of what bulls wanted  yesterday, pushing into “outright restrictive” territory – i.e., accelerating the next recession – is just what the bulls need, as it means rate cuts and a fresh QE can’t be far behind. In fact, today’s crash is precisely what the bulls want…

  More in the full note available to professional subscribers in the usual place.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/05/2022 – 18:55

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