Oct 06

Today’s News 6th October 2023

  • Trump To Endorse Jordan For Speaker
    Trump To Endorse Jordan For Speaker

    Update (2320ET): After teasing himself for Speaker of the House following Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s extremely short tenure, former President Donald Trump will endorse Rep. Jim Jordan’s bid.

    “Just had a great conversation with President Trump about the Speaker’s race,” Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX) posted on X, adding “He is endorsing Jim Jordan, and I believe Congress should listen to the leader of our party. I fully support Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House.”

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    Trump posted the following on Truth Social:

    Jordan currently chairs the House Judiciary Committee, as well as the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of Federal Government.

    *  *  *

    Former President Donald Trump will attend a GOP closed candidate House forum next Tuesday, where Republicans will discuss potential nominees to replace Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

    So far, Reps. Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise have thrown their hats in the ring, however many have floated the prospect of ‘Speaker Trump.’

    On Wednesday, Trump posted the above photo of himself in the Speaker’s chair holding a gavel, however as the NY Post reported the same day, there’s a little-known House GOP rule barring anyone with a felony indictment against serving in the role.

    “A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years’ imprisonment may be imposed,” according to the Republican Conference Rules of the 118th Congress.

    That said, the rules could be altered to make way for Trump.

    Despite the gavel post, however, it appears Trump doesn’t actually want the job – and may just be attending to help steer the process. In a Thursday Truth social post, he said:

    I am running for President, have a 62 Point lead over Republicans, and am up on Crooked Joe Biden, despite the Democrat Party’s massive Law-fare, Weaponization, and Election Interference efforts, by 4 to 11 Points, but will do whatever is necessary to help with the Speaker of the House selection process, short term, until the final selection of a GREAT REPUBLICAN SPEAKER is made – A Speaker who will help a new, but highly experienced President, ME, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

    So, Jordan or Scalise?

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 23:17

  • Macleod: Unwinding The Financial System
    Macleod: Unwinding The Financial System

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via SchiffGold.com,

    This article looks at the collateral side of financial transactions and some significant problems which are already emerging.

    At a time when there is a veritable tsunami of dollar credit in foreign hands overhanging markets, it is obvious that continually falling bond prices will ensure bear markets in all financial asset values leading to dollar liquidation. This unwinding corrects an accumulation of foreign-owned dollars and dollar denominated assets since the Second World War both in and outside the US financial system.

    Furthermore, collapsing collateral values, which are increasingly required backing for changing values in over $400 trillion nominal in interest rate swaps are a new driver for the crisis, forcing bond liquidation, driving prices down and yields higher: we are in a doom-loop.

    What action can the authorities take to ensure that counterparty risk from widespread failures won’t take out inadequately capitalised regulated exchanges?

    It seems that they acted some time ago by giving central security depositories (The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, Euroclear, and Clearstream) the right to pool securities on their registers and lend them out as collateral. Your investments, which you think you may own can be absorbed into the failing financial system without your knowledge.

    This seems particularly relevant, given the appointment of JPMorgan Chase as custodian of the large gold ETF, SPDR Trust (ticker GLD). In a test case in the New York courts concerning Lehman’s failure, JPMC was given legal protection should it seize its customer’s assets.

    This important erosion of property rights is poorly understood. But as the financial distortions are unwound, leading to unintended consequences such as bank failures and ultimately the collapse of the dollar-based fiat currency regime, the implication is that holders of physical gold ETFs will be left owning an empty shell at a time when they might have expected some protection from the collapse of the value of credit.

    Introduction

    In today’s complex markets it is difficult for the layman to understand their workings. It has always been about the expansion and limitation of bank credit, which must never be confused with money, and which from the dawn of history has been physical metal, particularly gold. But that is the medium of exchange of last resort, hoarded by individuals, and in recent centuries by central banks. And the layman’s understanding is further undermined by state propaganda which has dominated markets particularly since the suspension of the gold standard in America in 1933, which had lasted a century. Subsequent events have intensified monetary disinformation, leading to a global fiat money system based on the US dollar.

    In order to give us all the illusion of price stability the Breton Woods Agreement was designed to promote the dollar as a gold substitute for all other currencies. That aspect of the illusion ended in 1971. Since then, to maintain the dollar’s credibility the US Government increasingly resorted to market manipulation. First, they tried selling gold into the market in the early seventies, which was readily bought and failed to stop the gold price from continuing to rise. The next wheeze was to create artificial demand for dollars in an attempt to support its purchasing power, measured against commodities and other currencies. This led to the expansion of derivative markets, which diverted speculative demand for commodities thereby suppressing their prices below where they would otherwise be. The expansion of the London bullion market which created paper gold, and the general adoption of the dollar not just to settle cross-border trade and commodity pricing but to replace gold in central banks’ reserves was all part of the deception.

    Over the fifty-two years since Bretton Woods was suspended, huge imbalances accumulated. In last week’s article I showed a table of bank and shadow bank dollar balances, onshore and offshore, which I repeat below.

    The offshore element is considerably larger than that registered in the US Treasury’s TIC numbers, which in itself tells us that foreign interest in onshore dollar investments and bank balances exceeds US GDP by a fair margin on its own. The offshore element is based on the Bank for International Settlements analysis of dollar deposits and obligations outside the US financial system which we can equate with the eurodollar market. In the main, they are currency forwards and swaps where one leg is in US dollars.

    Now that the financial bubble inflated by zero and negative interest rates is being lanced, these credit balances are bound to diminish. We can see why this is the case just with onshore long-term securities, comprised of bonds and equities, to which we must add the estimated $10.7 trillion of eurodollar long term bonds. That’s nearly $37 trillion in foreign-owned long-term investments overhanging US financial markets as bond yields start soaring, which is already in process. Including offshore eurodollars, it is a tsunami of dollar debt threatening to break on America’s shores.

    The role of collateral in the LDI crisis

    What is generally not understood by the layman is that it is inflated investments which underpin many over-the-counter derivative positions by acting as collateral. A problem arises when the value of collateral falls, triggering further calls. This attracted public attention in the UK when rising gilt yields threatened liability driven investment schemes, an example that we can use to improve our wider understanding of the role of collateral in derivative contracts, and the dangers presented by a collapse of the entire collateral system.

    Liability driven investment (LDI) was being used by UK pension funds to enhance their returns. Defined benefit schemes faced with expensive final salary commitments to their beneficiaries were unable to meet these commitments from their investments when central banks reduced interest rates to the zero bound and through QE suppressed bond yields to minimal levels. The only solution for these DB schemes was to enhance their returns through leverage.

    Typically, this was being achieved through a LDI scheme. It allowed a pension fund to protect itself from falling interest rates, which increases a pension fund’s future liabilities through net present value calculations. An LDI scheme provided leverage, so that the income on a gilt would be multiplied three of four times, allowing a pension fund to cover its future liabilities.

    The pension fund invested in an LDI scheme has effectively entered into a leveraged interest rate swap with the LDI provider. A rising interest rate imparts a negative value to the swap, fixed income stream becomes worth less than the yield offered in the market. This requires the pension fund to put up collateral to the LDI provider. And leverage multiplies the collateral called. But pension funds tend to be fully invested, and don’t have that liquidity to hand, and were exposed to a radical increase in bond yields.

    The crisis was triggered when markets became spooked by Liz Truss’s proposed budget in September 2022. Yields for the 10-year gilt rapidly rose from 3.88% to 4.5%. And for the 30-year maturity from 2.7% to 4.8%. In the latter case, the value of this gilt fell by 13% in a matter of days.

    This forced pension funds to liquidate assets, including their gilts which is why the Bank of England had to step in to support the gilt market. And only when it was apparent that the authorities were stabilising gilt prices, panic among pension fund managers and LDI providers subsided.

    LDI is going global

    Gilt yields have now risen to even higher levels today, with the ten-year gilt yielding 4.63% and the 30-year 5.07%, so far without the LDI panic returning. Obviously, that episode alerted pension fund managers to the dangers, and they will have addressed their LDI risk accordingly. But the same cannot be said for the wider use of collateral in international markets, for which the 10-year US Treasury note is the “risk-free” yardstick. And in Europe, it is the ten-year German bund against which other euro-area bonds are compared. The chart below shows how these yields have risen recently.

    LDI contracts are essentially interest rate swaps, exchanging a floating rate (in their case volatile gilt yields) for a fixed rate, usually enhanced through leverage. These characteristics are similar to those of the global interest rate swap market, which is enormous. According to the Bank for International Settlements at end-2022 it amounted to a nominal value of $405.5 trillion, of which $145.5 trillion is in dollars and $109.3 trillion equivalent in euros. With a shift in the global inflation and interest rate outlook, this is leading to mounting collateral demand from those who have taken the fixed rate leg. It is developing into a major crisis which probably requires much more than central bank intervention, such as that deployed by the Bank of England in the case of LDIs.

    Furthermore, collateral values backing these derivatives and other leveraged commitments have fallen sharply, adding to enormous and escalating amounts of collateral top-ups being required. And this is occurring at a time when bank credit is tightening, which is bound to lead to higher market rates for bond yields anyway, even without collateral demand from interest rate swaps being unwound.

    This is rapidly turning into a doom-loop, similar to that exposed by the UK’s LDI crisis, but involving the dollar, the euro, and all other major currencies. Additionally, US banks are probably heading towards a trillion dollars in mark to market losses on their bond positions, and as borrowing costs continue to rise the damage to their P&L accounts funding their bond holdings is increasing.

    Perhaps this persuaded the Fed to go easy on interest rate policy, the FOMC having put it on pause last month. If so, it didn’t work, because US Treasury note yields rose sharply in the wake of the last FOMC statement. And then there is the commercial real estate crisis in America, to which regional banks are particularly exposed. This is a situation which is already out of control, with escalating collateral demand forcing liquidation of bonds, driving borrowing costs and bond yields inexorably higher.

    It is becoming rapidly apparent to lenders that collateral values are likely to continue to fall, particularly for longer durations, and that leverage is the road to disaster. One question this raises, is that in their long-term planning have the authorities foreseen a possible collateral crisis of this sort and taken action to deal with it if it becomes reality. This question, but not the motivation is addressed in a new book by David Rogers Webb, The Great Taking.

    The taking of your securities for collateral

    Webb’s analysis initially centres on the dematerialisation of securities from certificate form into book entry on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation. It is the forerunner of Europe’s Clearstream and Euroclear. These are central securities depositories, closely allied to central clearing counterparties. Without the investing public being aware of the implications, certificated property ownership of securities has been replaced with a “security entitlement”.

    The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation also has a securities financing transaction clearing facility. From its website, we see that:

    “The SFT Clearing service introduces central clearing for equity securities financing transactions, including lending, borrowing and Repo to:

    • Support central clearing of institutional clients’ equity SFTs intermediated by sponsoring members.

    • Support central clearing of equity SFTs between full service NSCC members.

    • Maximize capital efficiency and mitigates systemic risks by introducing more membership and cleared transaction opportunities for market participants.”

    This confirms that pools of collateral are made available to institutions, without the knowledge of those who possess securities entitlements that there is another claim on them. They no longer have clear title to their investments.

    Since the US’s Uniform Commercial Code enacting these changes was introduced, other jurisdictions such as the European Union and UK have followed suite. Besides the erosion of property rights for owners of securities, the objective appears to be to give institutions and hedge funds access to everyone’s property for collateral purposes. And where losses occur such as in a systemic failure, instead of the central securities depository taking the losses, it is those with the newly defined securities entitlements: in other words, you and me.

    Undoubtedly, the framers of the Uniform Commercial Code had the protection of thinly capitalised exchanges in regulated markets in mind. We expect our transaction settlements to be guaranteed by regulated exchanges. But in a financial crisis leading to multiple counterparty failures, regulated markets cannot extend this protection. The solution has been to take this risk away from them and centralise it in central securities depositories, giving them the power to use the pools of securities under their control to ensure deliveries can continue under all circumstances. Not only does this allow collateral lending, but it transfers systemic risk from regulated exchanges to pools of securities entitlements.

    It appears that the corruption of security holders’ rights doesn’t stop there, as the Safe Harbour clause in US bankruptcy law legislation can also apply. The relationship between central securities depositories, such as the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, and central clearing counterparties such as a systemically important bank enables this to happen.

    In a test case in New York between Lehman Brothers creditors and JPMorgan Chase which acted as Lehman’s clearing agent, the creditors sought to reclaim $8.6bn from JPMorgan Chase.[ii] This was the amount which was seized by the bank as if it was collateral in the days leading to Lehman’s failure. Prior to the seizure, it was an obligation to Lehman in the form of deposits and securities without a lien. Indeed, in the 92 page ruling, there were many references to the legal status of these obligations.

    It could be argued that without the safe harbour provisions in US bankruptcy law, the seizure of these assets would have been illegal. Indeed, this is the situation demonstrated under UK law, when JPMorgan was fined £33.32m by the Financial Services Authority in June 2010 for failing to ensure that client money, in other words funds which were custodial, was not properly segregated from the bank’s liabilities.

    We learn two things from these different rulings. The first is that following the precedent of the US court in New York, JPMorgan has the power to ignore the distinction between assets held as collateral and assets which the bank has an obligation to discharge to a depositor. And secondly, this US bank, which happens to be the largest and the Fed’s primary conduit into commercial banking has failed to distinguish between that relationship in US law and its legal and regulatory obligations in other jurisdictions, such as the UK.

    JPMorgan’s relationship with gold

    At the outset, it is worth noting that regulatory bodies tend to give large banks the benefit of the doubt, only looking closely at their compliance activities when they can no longer be ignored. Consequently, large banks have been known to act as if regulations don’t exist. The example above, where it was absolutely plain that JPMorgan Chase was in breach of the regulations with respect to custodial client money in London may or may not have been an exception. We are entitled to assume that some of the smartest lawyers and compliance officers are employed by JPMorgan Chase who should have known better.

    This lack of respect for the law was demonstrated in an important case in the gold market, when JPMorgan Chase’s global head of precious metals trading and board member of the London Bullion Market Association was found guilty of attempted price manipulation, commodities fraud, wire fraud and spoofing prices in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures. And it is not as if this was an isolated case: it had been going on for eight years involving thousands of unlawful trading sequences. And another colleague heading up the New York gold desk was also found guilty. That was in July 2019. Finally, in 2020 the bank itself pleaded guilty to unlawful trading in precious metals futures markets and was heavily fined.

    Inexplicably, with this track record JPMorgan Chase Bank was recently appointed joint custodian of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) alongside HSBC. This ETF is the largest in existence by far and its sponsor is a subsidiary of the World Gold Council. Why the WGC sanctioned the appointment of a bank whose senior dealers in precious metals have been found guilty of manipulating gold prices and jailed is a mystery. It is not as if having one custodian represents more risk than two. Furthermore, HSBC stores all GLD bullion in its London vaults, so that it is subject to English property law and securities regulation in every respect.

    JPMorgan Chase is reported to be considering the transfer of GLD’s bullion to its vaults in New York. It is thought that their vault is linked underground to the Fed’s vault, with the Fed on the north side of Liberty Street and Chase Bank across the road.[iii] It is in this context that we return to David Webb’s analysis of central counterparties, ownership of securities as property being replaced with a “security entitlement”, and the free use of that security entitlement as collateral without the knowledge or agreement of the entitled. And according to the ruling of the New York court effectively extending this facility to JPMorgan Chase as a central clearing counterparty, we may be assembling a picture which will allow JPMorgan Chase to use GLD’s bullion as collateral, or perhaps to lease or swap it, or alternatively to dispose of it in return for a book entry credit.

    Our suspicions will be increased when we think through the implications of the proximity of JPMorgan Chase’s vault to the Fed’s vault across the road and circumstantial evidence of a tunnel between the two. Stored in the Fed’s vault is gold for the New York Fed, earmarked for foreign central banks. And when we remember the difficulty Germany had getting the New York Fed to return a paltry 300 tonnes, doubtless our suspicions will go into overdrive.

    Undoubtedly, GLD’s trustee The Bank of New York Mellon and the World Gold Council have some serious questions to answer as to why JPMorgan Chase was appointed a custodian. Here are just a few suggestions:

    • Did the Trustee of the World Gold Council come under pressure or recommendation from any government organisation or monetary authority to appoint JPMorgan Chase a custodian to the SPDR Trust?

    • Were the Trustee and Council not aware that JPMorgan Chase has a history of market manipulation in gold contracts, and that the bank had pleaded guilty. According to the Office of Public Affairs in the US Department of Justice: “In September 2020, JPMorgan admitted to committing wire fraud in connection with: (1) unlawful trading in the markets for precious metals futures contracts; and (2) unlawful trading in the markets for U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in the secondary (cash) market for U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. JPMorgan entered into a three-year deferred prosecution agreement through which it paid more than $920 million in a criminal monetary penalty, criminal disgorgement, and victim compensation, with parallel resolutions by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities Exchange Commission announced on the same day.”

    • Furthermore, that two of their senior staff were on trial when JPMorgan Chase was appointed custodian, one of which served on the board of the LBMA and ran JPMorgan’s global precious metals desk, and the other an executive director and trader on the New York precious metal desk? And that both men were subsequently jailed and fined for market manipulation in August?

    Almost certainly, the Trustee and the World Gold Council’s management won’t be called upon to answer these questions. But the legal position of GLD shareholders’ underlying property assets is compromised by these developments.

    Furthermore, authorised participants can borrow their shares from a centralised securities depository and redeem them for physical gold. By hedging their position in futures or London’s forward markets, they are under no pressure to return the gold and close their stock loan. Given this facility, far from GLD being a secure investment in gold bullion, it may already be being used as a source of liquidity for bullion dealers.

    Conclusion

    There can be little doubt that access to GLD’s property would be a partial solution to urgent problems arising from over fifty years of official suppression of the gold price. As I have written before, after extensive and careful research, analyst Frank Veneroso concluded as long ago as 2002 that between 10,000 and 14,000 tonnes of central bank gold were either leased or swapped. And he further concluded that much of that gold “was adorning Asian women” so would not be returned.

    We know that the Bank of England arranges these contracts for its central bank clients. We can only assume that the New York Fed similarly arranges these income generating activities on behalf of earmarked gold in its custody. Worse still is the thought that the New York Fed might have sold off earmarked gold into the markets, which would explain why it refused to let Bundesbank representatives inspect its gold, and initially proved extremely reluctant to return only 300 tonnes out of 1,536 tonnes of Germany’s gold supposedly held in the New York vault. And presumably, it was the Bundesbank’s experience which prompted the Dutch Central Bank to repatriate 122 tonnes of its gold from New York, leaving 190 tonnes behind at the New York Fed.

    With the failing of the fiat currency regime, the chickens of gold leasing and price suppression are now coming home to roost. It is becoming apparent that at a minimum the stagflationary conditions of the 1970s are returning, when gold rose from the official rate of $35 per ounce to over $800. And the Fed funds rate rose from about 6% to nearly 20%. After fifty-two years of currency debasement, the starting point for a new rise in the gold price is somewhere between $1500—$2000. And arguably, the dollar is in a far worse position today than it was when President Nixon suspended the Bretton Woods Agreement.

    The legal position in the US is shared with the EU and UK, whereby holders of shares in ETFs could find the property in them plundered through the agency of JPMorgan Chase and other central clearing counterparties, where, it seems, their status permits them to deploy bullion and other private property as they see fit.

    The bullion banks are currently trying to close their paper shorts and to go long, benefiting from the ignorance of speculators, who believe that higher interest rates are bad for gold. That may be true in markets devoid of systemic and inflation risks, but only these fellows below would take this seriously in the developing situation.

    Currently, bond yields are rising strongly, which means that collateral values are falling. It amounts to a credit contraction of up to 30% on longer dated bonds so far. And where collateral backs leveraged interest rate swap positions, calls can be catastrophic.

    Fairly quickly, the gold price can be expected to reflect systemic and currency risks, which will trump any meme the three wise monkeys might come up with. Driving the dollar’s falling value measured in goods will be the funding outlook for the US Government. With interest costs likely to rise to $1.5 trillion in the fiscal year just started and the onset of economic stagnation if not outright recession, the budget deficit could easily top $3.5 trillion, perhaps eight or nine per cent of expenditure. And this is at a time of diminishing foreign appetite for US Treasuries.

    This takes us back to the enormous mountain of dollar credit in foreign hands, quantified in the table at the beginning of the article. Long term investments, totalling $26.113 trillion, plus a further $10.7 trillion in Eurobonds will all fall in value as interest rates continue to rise. There can be no doubt that foreigners will sell these positions down. Their only problem is what to do with cash dollars, which already amount to over $100 trillion. Other currencies are mostly less attractive than the dollar. There is only one thing to be done, and that is to follow the Singaporeans, who have the prescience to accumulate hard real money without counterparty risk, which is physical gold.

    And finally, there are geopolitical considerations. The deteriorating collateral position is surely being observed with concern in Asia and the Global South. The sudden rise in US Treasury bond yields is signalling that a global version of the UK’s liability driven investment debacle is already developing, in which case the collapse of financial market values could escalate rapidly from here.

    It is against this background that Russia and Saudi Arabia are driving up energy prices, leading to rising CPI inflation and expectations of higher interest rates to come. Commercial banks will almost certainly intensify credit restrictions as well. Viewed from outside America, it all amounts to intolerable pressures on the US and Eurozone credit systems. And if Russia, perhaps followed by China decide to deploy their gold reserves in order to secure the value of their currencies, it is bound to be the coup de grace for the fiat currency system.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 23:05

  • Homebuyers Under 25 Are Flocking To The Midwest
    Homebuyers Under 25 Are Flocking To The Midwest

    It’s official: the newest generation of homebuyers are flocking to the midwest. Cities with the most homebuyers under the age of 25 are located in this more affordable part of the country, a new study released by Construction Coverage found. 

    The study used data from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council’s 2022 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, and researchers at Construction Coverage “calculated the share of all home purchase loans taken out by applicants under 25 years old.”

    The study says that only “conventional home purchase loans originated in 2022 were considered for this analysis”.

    The key points of the study found:

    • The total number of conventional home loans originated in 2022 was down across all age groups from the year prior. Among all age cohorts, 65–74 year-olds experienced the largest percentage decline, decreasing by 22.3%. Notably, the under-25 age group only experienced a 12.3% decline, the smallest of all cohorts and a sign of persistent housing demand from younger generations despite economic headwinds.
    • Many of the states with the highest shares of home purchase loans from adults under age 25 are found in the more affordable Midwest, led by Iowa at 11.5%. The same trend holds at the local level, with many of the top metropolitan areas for young homeowners also found in that region.
    • In contrast, high-cost coastal states including Hawaii (1.6%) and California (1.9%) have much lower shares of home purchase loans from young adults. In these areas, would-be young homebuyers face more expensive homes and higher living costs, creating a higher barrier to entry in these real estate markets.

    As the study notes, millennials—those born from 1981 to 1996—now representing the largest age group in the United States and entering their prime years for acquiring their first or even second homes. These dynamics contribute to a surge of buyers vying for a diminishing pool of available properties. Freddie Mac reports that even before the pandemic hit, the housing market was facing an all-time low in supply.

    While there are indications that the feverish pace of the residential real estate market may be slowing after its unprecedented surge amid the COVID-19 crisis, the path to homeownership remains steep, the study says. The competitive landscape and escalating home prices pose particular challenges for younger individuals entering the market for the first time.

    The moderation in the housing market is further underscored by a decline in the issuance of conventional home loans in 2022, a trend that spanned all age brackets compared to the previous year. Among the various age groups, individuals aged 65–74 witnessed the most significant reduction, with loan originations plummeting by 22.3%. Conversely, younger buyers exhibited more resilience. Specifically, the cohort under 25 years old saw only a 12.3% drop in home loan volume, the least among all age groups. This suggests a sustained demand for housing from younger generations, even in the face of economic challenges.

    The study notes that before 2022 even came into focus, there had been a rising trend in homeownership interest among younger purchasers. In 2020, the rate of homeownership for those below 25 hit 25.7%, equaling a prior high point set during the 2005 housing bubble. While this percentage experienced a minor decrease in 2021, it rebounded to 25.4% in 2022. This is notably higher than the rates documented in the 1980s and 1990s, indicating a sustained enthusiasm for homeownership among the youngest cohort of adults.

    For those young adults eyeing homeownership, geographic disparities offer both opportunities and challenges. The Midwest states, spearheaded by Iowa at an 11.5% share, are notable hotspots for home purchase loans among individuals under 25. Lower housing prices in this region make it a more feasible option for younger buyers, who often have less equity compared to older home seekers. This pattern also persists at the city level, with numerous Midwestern metropolitan areas ranking high for young homeowners due to affordability.

    On the flip side, coastal states with high living costs, such as Hawaii and California, boasting meager shares of 1.6% and 1.9% respectively, present significant obstacles for young potential homeowners. The steep prices and elevated cost of living in these states construct a formidable barrier to entering their real estate markets.

    You can review the full study’s findings and sort by metro size here. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 22:35

  • Exxon "Days Away" From Buying Shale Giant Pioneer In "Seismic Deal" That Will Reshape US Energy
    Exxon “Days Away” From Buying Shale Giant Pioneer In “Seismic Deal” That Will Reshape US Energy

    In a deal that would be transformational for the US energy sector, and spark another shale revolution, the WSJ writes that US supermajor, the largest US energy E&P and formerly the world’s largest company by market cap, Exxon – the company that according to the Big Guy made more money than God in 2021, is closing in on a deal to shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources, a blockbuster takeover that could be worth roughly $60 billion and reshape the U.S. oil industry.

    The deal, which the WSJ first leaked back in April and has described as “seismic” (metaphorically but also literally, ha ha)  could be sealed in the coming days, though it is still possible there won’t be one, sources told the Journal.

    After posting a record profit in 2022, and flush with cash, Exxon has been exploring options that would push it deeper into West Texas shale. An acquisition of Pioneer, with a market cap of around $50 billion, would be Exxon’s largest deal since its megamerger with Mobil in 1999, and would give Exxon a dominant position in the oil-rich Permian Basin, a region the oil giant has said is integral to its growth plans.

    Such a deal would not only eclipse the U.S. oil industry’s most recent blockbuster, Occidental’s 2019 acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum for about $38 billion, and top Exxon’s 2010 purchase of XTO Energy for more than $30 billion, it would make Exxon the second most important energy company in the world after Saudi Aramco.

    It would also be a legacy-shaping move for Exxon CEO Darren Woods, whose tenure at the company has seen its peaks and valleys.

    Woods, an Exxon-lifer who became CEO in 2017, initially promised to dramatically grow Exxon’s oil production only to see his plans felled by the pandemic. An oil-market collapse in 2020 led to Exxon’s first annual loss in decades—more than $22 billion. It lost a historic proxy fight in 2021 to investment firm Engine No. 1, which excoriated Exxon’s finances and argued it had no long-term strategy.

    And yet, without any handouts from the Biden admin unlike so many of its unionized corporate peers, Exxon rebounded to a record profit of $55.7 billion last year, propelled by soaring global demand for oil and gas as economies reopened. Exxon has used its prolific cash flows to reward investors with buybacks and dividends and pledged disciplined spending, though many wondered whether the company would dip into its coffers for a megadeal in the oil patch.

    We now know the answer. The acquisition marks Woods’s second significant acquisition, coming only a few months after Exxon scooped up CO2 pipeline operator Denbury for $4.9 billion. It would add vast swaths of West Texas acreage considered the core of the U.S. shale boom.

    As the WSJ notes, Pioneer’s acreage in the Midland Basin (the eastern portion of the Permian Basin, which straddles West Texas and New Mexico) is one of the largest collections of fertile oil land in the U.S., and the company holds one of the largest numbers of untapped drilling locations of any Permian player, analysts have said. In the wake of the pandemic, Pioneer snapped up two other large Permian operators, Parsley Energy and DoublePoint Energy, for a combined $11 billion in 2021.

    The tie-up will presage a wave of consolidation among shale companies. The industry has shifted from the rapid growth it pursued for more than a decade to a mature business underpinned by fiscal restraint and hefty investor payouts. But producers are contending with dwindling drilling locations. Drilling for new oil discoveries has fallen out of favor with investors, leaving many companies with few options other than to acquire rivals to extend their runway.

    Producers have deep coffers at their disposal to pursue deals after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year sent global prices soaring to more than $127 a barrel. Prices have retreated and been volatile since then. Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer could be the first of a series of deals in the Permian, which contains shale wells that produce rapidly and don’t bind companies to decadeslong megaprojects that have fallen out of favor with some investors who fear a future decline in oil demand.

    The best news, however, is that Exxon just slapped the progressive lobby in its sanctimonious face. While environmentalists, lawmakers and others have hoped oil and gas companies would invest their record profits into green energy, that won’t be happening. And while Woods has pledged Exxon will invest $17 billion through 2027 in cutting the company’s carbon emissions and building a business that would help other companies reduce theirs too, investing in areas including carbon capture, biofuels and lithium mining, all that the shrewd CEO is doing is getting to the front of the line of the government’s green handouts.

    The bottom line: Exxon’s move to purchase Pioneer, even after its acquisition of Denbury, the CO2 pipeline operator, signals the company is still primarily planning to lean on its traditional oil-and-gas business for decades.

    That said, nothing is guaranteed in the energy sector which together with crypto, has emerged as the most hated industry of the so-called Democrats. In 2020, when the price of oil collapsed, and when many were doubting that Exxon would avoid bankruptcy, it subsequently emerged (again via the WSJ) that Exxon was considering a merger with Chevron, the energy sector’s 2nd largest company.  Back then, talks between Exxon and Chevron were preliminary and yielded no result.

    Then again, if Exxon manages to become not only the biggest it has ever been but also a cash flow machine and the world’s 2nd most important energy company under a Democratic administration, one can only imagine what will happen in 13 months time when the senile teleprompter reader is finally kicked out.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 22:07

  • Japan Splits Management Of The Impossible Trilemma: MOF For The Currency, BOJ For The Yields
    Japan Splits Management Of The Impossible Trilemma: MOF For The Currency, BOJ For The Yields

    Observing the cartoonish circus that is Japan’s central bank and ministry of finance, Bloomberg’s Masaki Kondo writes that Japan’s hesitation to let go of the yen means the BOJ is managing monetary policy amid an almost impossible trinity of outcomes. In the end the yen will probably take precedence over bonds with 10-year yields likely to climb toward 1%.

    The Mundell-Fleming trilemma stipulates a nation can’t achieve the free flow of capital, independent monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate simultaneously. The fact that Japan’s apparent reluctance to let JPY weaken despite the nation’s open capital account is putting the BOJ in this trilemma, to a certain degree.

    This difficulty is pronounced by the BOJ’s bond-purchase operation; the central bank may want to buy more bonds to keep yields low, but concern over a further weakness in the yen is preventing the BOJ from doing so. Japan’s way to get around this problem is to split the tasks: the MOF for the currency and the BOJ for yields.

    Whether this will work or not remains to be seen. But the initial rebound higher for USD/JPY after Tuesday’s slide suggests Japan’s authorities need to be even more convincing.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, continued yen weakness means one thing: inflation will keep rising and rising as real wages keep falling and falling… and just hit a record low.

    And there will come a point when even the world’s most compliant and sheepish society says enough.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 21:40

  • COVID-19 Shot May Be Linked To Unexpected Vaginal Bleeding: Study
    COVID-19 Shot May Be Linked To Unexpected Vaginal Bleeding: Study

    Authored by Mary Gillis via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Syringes filled with COVID-19 vaccine sit on a table at a COVID-19 vaccination clinic on April 06, 2022 in San Rafael, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Norwegian scientists have discovered an unusual side effect in COVID-19-vaccinated women who don’t menstruate: atypical vaginal bleeding after injection with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.

    Researchers studied close to 22,000 women across different reproductive aging stages over about nine months and found that 3.3 percent of postmenopausal, 14.1 percent of perimenopausal, and 13.1 percent of premenopausal women experienced at least one unexpected bleed after receiving the COVID-19 shot, according to the authors of the study published in Science Advances.

    About half of the bleeds were said to have occurred within the first four weeks of getting the vaccine. Postmenopausal women’s risk of bleeding was two to three times higher during the 28 days after injection than before receiving the shot. The link was stronger in perimenopausal and premenopausal women, with both groups showing a three- to fivefold elevated risk. Perimenopausal women are typically in their 40s and have begun experiencing some menopause symptoms but can still get pregnant, while premenstrual women have no menopause symptoms.

    Researchers also found a difference in women’s susceptibility when given one shot over the other. Premenopausal women were at a 32 percent higher risk of vaginal bleeding after a dose of the Moderna vaccine than the Pfizer.

    How Is Vaccination Linked to Bleeding?

    Study author Kristine Blix and her colleagues at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Oslo drew from questionnaire data from an ongoing population health survey to investigate COVID-19 vaccines and unexpected bleeding in the three groups.

    “We had already, from the early pandemic, biweekly questionnaires going out to cohort participants to monitor effects of the pandemic,” Ms. Blix told Nature.

    Responses to the 2021 questionnaire indicated that some women experienced unusually heavy menstrual bleeding after receiving the vaccine. “This urged us to ask for bleeding patterns in a structured manner,” she said.

    Ms. Blix’s team didn’t investigate the reasons for the unexplained bleeding, and no conclusive evidence supports that the shot caused it. However, one theory is that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein used in the vaccines may be a culprit.

    “Increased risk after both Comirnaty (Pfizer) and Spikevax (Moderna) suggest a mechanism related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein and not to other vaccine components,” the authors wrote in the paper. “This is also supported by a higher risk observed after Spikevax in premenopausal women.” Possible pathways to induce the bleeding may stem from a spike protein-related immune response or an endometrial expression of the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors that serve as the virus’ entry point, they continued.

    Additional Studies

    A study published in February that examined close to 8,000 women found abnormal bleeding to be a common side effect of the Pfizer vaccine. Most women experienced excessive bleeding between their vaccination date and their next menstrual period, authors wrote in the paper, recommending further investigation into the events and the possible long-term consequences of vaccine-induced vaginal bleeding.

    In 2022, The Lancet published a study where researchers showed that a cohort of nearly 64,000 respondents ages 18 and older experienced menstrual irregularities or vaginal bleeding in the form of altered menstruation timing and severity of menstrual symptoms to menopausal bleeding and resumption of menses.

    In contrast, a 2023 study published in Vaccine showed premenopausal women vaccinated for COVID-19 were no more likely to report irregular menstrual cycles or heavier bleeds after the shot than unvaccinated women. However, the authors acknowledged about a one-day delay or one-day longer cycle in vaccinated versus unvaccinated women.

    Possible Causes of Irregular Vaginal Bleeding

    Irregular bleeding may be caused by several factors ranging from stress to more serious underlying medical conditions, including:

    • Endometriosis.
    • Pelvic inflammatory disease.
    • Polycystic ovary syndrome.
    • Primary ovarian insufficiency.
    • Thyroid or pituitary gland disorders.
    • Uterine or ovarian cancer.

    Medications and pregnancy complications may also cause irregular bleeding. These include:

    • Birth control pills.
    • Medications including steroids or blood thinners.
    • Miscarriages or an ectopic pregnancy.
    • Surgeries, scarring, or blockages in a woman’s uterus, ovaries, or fallopian tubes.

    FDA Still Recommends the Vaccine

    On Sept. 11, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized an updated COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use—one “formulated to more closely target currently circulating variants and to provide better protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death.”

    “Vaccination remains critical to public health and continued protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death,” said Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, in a press release. “The public can be assured that these updated vaccines have met the agency’s rigorous scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality. We very much encourage those who are eligible to consider getting vaccinated.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 21:20

  • Education Shock: 200 Maryland Public Schools Have <5% Students Proficient In Math 
    Education Shock: 200 Maryland Public Schools Have <5% Students Proficient In Math 

    Investigative journalist Chris Papst of Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore revealed Thursday morning another bombshell report on the massive grade scandal in the progressive state of Maryland:

    FACT: Current state of Maryland public schools. More than 200 schools (according to state data) have 5% or fewer students proficient in math. Meaning, in at least 200 schools, at best 95% of students are NOT math proficient. Seems unbelievable, but true.

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    Papst wrote in the report, “There are at least 200 schools where, according to the state’s data, the percentage of students proficient in math is five percent or less. More than 77,000 Maryland students took the test in those roughly 200 schools. There’s a chance none are proficient in math. Project Baltimore only has the raw data for Baltimore City schools. So, taxpayers will never know because the state won’t tell you.”

    Papst said for over a decade, the Maryland State Department of Education has redacted test scores in what they say is “enhanced deidentification.” The redactions replace test score data with asterisks so the public will never know students’ progress, while state officials can boast about spending the most ever on education. 

    Sean Kennedy from the Maryland Public Policy Institute told Papst in April: “The State Education Department is instituting a cover-up of what’s going on in public schools; it’s outrageous.” 

    In February, Papst revealed that 23 Baltimore City Schools had zero students proficient in math from an inside source in the school system. And again, last month, he found 13 Baltimore City High Schools had zero students proficient on the state math exam. 

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    State Superintendent Mohammed Choudhury is anticipated to step down over the grade scandal on Friday.

    It’s absolutely absurd that education officials appear to be covering up failing test scores across the leftist state while robbing the younger generation blind of an education. Maybe they care more about their paychecks and bonuses than the future. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 20:55

  • Nancy Pelosi Evicted From Her Private Office By Acting House Speaker
    Nancy Pelosi Evicted From Her Private Office By Acting House Speaker

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) speaks during her final weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Dec. 22, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) ordered Democrats who recently left leadership positions to vacate their private offices in the U.S. Capitol shortly after becoming acting speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.

    Mr. McHenry ordered Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was speaker until January, to vacate her hideaway office, Ms. Pelosi said.

    “One of the first actions taken by the new speaker pro tempore was to order me to immediately vacate my office in the Capitol,” she said in a statement.

    “Sadly, because I am in California to mourn the loss of and pay tribute to my dear friend Dianne Feinstein, I am unable to retrieve my belongings at this time.”

    Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) died on Sept. 29 at age 90.

    Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) speaks to the press after meeting President Joe Biden to discuss the debt limit at the White House in Washington on May 22, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Ms. Pelosi said that the eviction was “a sharp departure from tradition,” referencing that she allowed former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) to keep his private office “for as long as he wished.”

    According to reports, an email from Mr. McHenry’s office to Ms. Pelosi states that he was going to reassign the hideaway “for speaker office use.”

    “Please vacate the space tomorrow,” the email reportedly reads.

    Ms. Pelosi said, “Office space doesn’t matter to me, but it seems to be important to them. Now that the new Republican leadership has settled this important matter, let’s hope they get to work on what’s truly important for the American people.”

    Democrats Cry Foul

    Ms. Pelosi was one of the members who didn’t vote on the motion earlier on Oct. 3 to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as speaker.

    Mr. McCarthy, who was ousted from the speaker position and apparently allowed Ms. Pelosi to keep her private office, didn’t return an inquiry.

    Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who held a leadership position until January, was also told to vacate his hideaway office by Mr. McHenry, a spokeswoman for Mr. Hoyer told The Epoch Times via email.

    Mr. McHenry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    Democrats decried the move.

    “While Nancy Pelosi is in California mourning the loss of her longtime friend, Patrick McHenry does this. From top to bottom the House GOP are classless and shameful people who are desperate to score cheap political points rather than govern,” Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.) said in a statement.

    Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) leaves the House Chamber after being ousted from his position in Washington on Oct. 3, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    Mr. McHenry became speaker pro tempore after the House approved a resolution to remove Mr. McCarthy. Eight Republicans, not including Mr. McHenry, sided with Democrats to approve the resolution, which was introduced by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

    Mr. McCarthy compiled a list of members who would serve as speaker pro tempore if he were ousted, under rules passed by the House. Mr. McHenry, known as an ally of Mr. McCarthy, was at the top of the list.

    Mr. McHenry, as acting speaker, will exercise authorities such as presiding over proceedings of the House, including a vote for the next speaker. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) told reporters that Mr. McHenry’s main task will be to “get us a new speaker.” Anything further would spark a move to oust Mr. McHenry as well, he said.

    What’s Next

    Until a new House speaker is installed, it’s unlikely that further action will be taken on bills to fund the government, with lawmakers facing a Nov. 17 deadline to provide more money or face a partial government shutdown.

    Although the speaker sets the overall legislative agenda in the House, it’s the House majority leader who schedules specific bills to be debated and voted upon in the chamber.

    Republican lawmakers said they would need at least a week to choose a new speaker, which will eat into the time necessary to pass that needed legislation.

    House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) speaks at a press conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Sept. 12, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    Democrats can also put forth a candidate and are expected to offer Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

    Mr. Jeffries lost the race to Mr. McCarthy in January. That race went 15 rounds and took days to resolve.

    To win, a candidate needs the votes of a majority of members present.

    Mr. McCarthy, the first speaker removed by a motion to vacate in U.S. history, said he wouldn’t run again. He remains in the House and can vote in the upcoming speaker election.

    Under the U.S. Constitution, the House speaker doesn’t have to be a member of Congress, so some Republicans have floated the name of former President Donald Trump for the position, even though he’s running for president and has said he doesn’t want the job.

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 20:30

  • Putin Claims Successful Test Of Nuclear-Powered 'Global-Range' Cruise Missile For 1st Time
    Putin Claims Successful Test Of Nuclear-Powered ‘Global-Range’ Cruise Missile For 1st Time

    Each year, Russian President Vladimir Putin uses the occasion of the Valdai Discussion Club hosted in Sochi to present on a wide range of foreign policy issues in an off the cuff manner, which most often comes out in Q&A format. He did the same Thursday at this year’s Valdai event, and one of the statements which is grabbing the attention of Western officials was related to testing nuclear weapons, at a sensitive moment where the last nuclear weapons treaty with Washington is set to fail.

    “I think no person of sound mind and clear memory would think of using nuclear weapons against Russia,” Putin began in that segment of a speech before Russian foreign policy officials. That’s when he made a statement being widely perceived as signaling openness to resumption of nuclear testing: 

    “I hear calls to start testing nuclear weapons, to return to testing,” he added. “I am not ready to say whether we really need to conduct tests or not.”

    Illustrative, via BBC

    He also raised eyebrows in immediately touting completed work on the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, with the former being identified as a nuclear-powered cruise missile.

    “We conducted the last successful test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered global-range cruise missile,” he said. This weapon hasn’t been publicly mentioned by Putin since 2018, and suddenly he’s revealed it’s been successfully tested.

    Code-named Skyfall by NATO, the consensus among Western analysts has long been that the technology is likely too hard to achieve given unreliability and volatility of such a nuclear propulsion engine. On the deep significance of the ‘threat’ to possibly put the Burevestnik on combat readiness, Mario Nawfal comments:

    Putin also declined to rule out the possibility it could carry out weapons tests involving nuclear explosions for the first time in more than three decades. Today, Putin warned the West of a ‘response’ to the pressure, and his willingness to ‘end the war’:

    “There is permanently increasing military and political pressure [from the West]. We have to respond. I have said many times that it was not us who started the war in Ukraine. On the contrary, we are trying to end it.”

    “The West has lost the sense of reality. Ukrainian conflict is not about territories. The issue is about global order.” Zelensky warned Europe that if Ukraine loses, Russia will attack other counties as well. Is Russia posturing again, as we’ve seen in the past, or is this not a bluff?

    * * *

    Other interesting moments from Putin’s words before Valdai are as follows…

    Putin: Not against Ukraine’s EU aspirations, but categorically against NATO membership.

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    West is now crossing all boundaries in the proxy war:

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    He additionally reiterated that Russia has not only resisted US-Europe led sanctions, but he is optimistic for the future of a thriving Russian economy…

    “In general, the situation is stable. We have overcome all the sanctions-related issues, and have started the next stage of [economic] development on a new basis, which is fundamentally important,” Putin stated.

    The West always needs an enemy, he further stated:

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    He also stressed the usual themes of US unilateralism and “colonialism” – and hegemony at the expense of the rest of the globe:

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    Putin also at one point asserted that he’s not seeking to expand the war to other countries – contrary to what many pundits in the West have claimed.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 20:05

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Our Establishment's Alternate Realities
    Victor Davis Hanson: Our Establishment’s Alternate Realities

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    One common denominator that explains why previously successful societies implode is their descent into fantasies. A collective denial prevents even discussion of existential threats and their solutions.

    Something like that is happening in the United States. Eight million illegal immigrants have entered the United States by the deliberate erasure of the southern border.

    Apparently, the Biden administration sees some unstated advantage in destroying U.S. immigration law and welcoming in would-be new constituents.

    Yet, the more the millions arrive, the more Joe Biden and his Homeland Security director Alejandro Mayorkas flat out lie that “the border is secure.”

    They both live in a world of make-believe, passed off to the American people as reality.

    And the more the Americans are lied to that the border is secure, the more they poll—currently 77 percent—that it is not.

    Biden apparently has reversed course and begun using the former pejorative “Bidenomics” as a term of pride.

    He now praises this three-year effort to borrow $6-7 trillion, and spike interest rates threefold to 7% on home mortgages—even as prices on essentials like food and fuel have spiked 25-30% since he entered office.

    The more that Biden brags about what he did to the economy, the more people poll—over 60%—dissatisfaction with his alternate reality of “Bidenomics.”

    Do we remember the humiliation in August 2021 in Afghanistan?

    The more Gen. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and Joe Biden assured that the American military presence was stable, the more swiftly it crumbled and descended into the worst mass flight of an American army since Vietnam.

    Consider natural gas and oil. The Biden administration waged war on both by canceling pipelines, drilling on federal lands, and entire oil fields.

    When the price soared and the 2022 midterms neared, Biden suddenly begged formerly shunned illiberal regimes like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela to pump all the hated oil they could to lower the price.

    A desperate Biden drained much of the strategic petroleum reserve—he has yet to refill it—simply to lower the price of gasoline and thus win voters back to the Democratic Party.

    When the midterms passed, Biden resumed his attack on once bad, then good, and now bad again fossil fuels—at least until the 2024 election.

    Stranger still is the denial of the current crime wave in our major cities. Predators and thugs have turned once iconic downtowns into either war zones or ghost towns or both.

    Smash-and-grab swarming of stores and matter-of-fact shoplifting are destroying commerce in our major cities.

    Unsustainable stores either leave or shut down. Communities who vote for politicians who defund the police blame the stores for leaving—but not the criminals whose brazen thefts made it impossible to do business in the inner city.

    Now modern-day pirates with impunity storm, sink, and rob boats of all kinds in the Oakland marina and estuary.

    Leftwing journalists and activists, and even Democratic politicians, who all supported defunding the police, now cannot escape the resulting street violence and unleashed murderous predations.

    Everyone knows the culprit is the post-George Floyd effort—with Biden administration complicity—to defund the police, end cash bail, institutionalize catch-and-release of criminals, and show more sympathy toward victimizers than victims.

    Yet neither state nor local officials nor Joe Biden himself even admits to a crime wave. The more the public is attacked and avoids major downtowns, the more it polls furor over the crime wave.

    The more our officials, in gaslighting style, claim such alarm is all in our collective heads, the more they themselves are attacked by the very criminals their policies empowered.

    Sometimes the fantasies extend to the trivial. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn) for months has dressed like an utter slob while on the Senate floor. As a gesture of approval, Democrats junked the dress code so he could wear his sloppy cut-offs and hoodie.

    Americans were to assume his slovenly costume was normal apparel—and they were hypercritical for thinking otherwise.

    Recently Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) pulled a Senate fire alarm to disrupt and delay a vote on continuing the funding of the government. But he got caught on a Capitol surveillance video committing the crime.

    Bowman whined that he got confused. He preposterously claimed by pulling the alarm he thought he was opening a door to go vote.

    All of that was pure fantasy. The alarm was clearly marked. A sign in front of the door warned not to enter. And the door itself was placarded with cautions that any attempt to open it would set off emergency alarms.

    No matter. Bowman assumed by calling his critics “Nazis” and using the race card, he could invent a virtual reality.

    Despite our epidemic of fantasy, there remains reality.

    And we will soon rediscover it all too soon.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 19:40

  • Mapping The Gerontocracy
    Mapping The Gerontocracy

    The passing of California Senator Dianne Feinstein at the age of 90 is throwing a spotlight on America’s political establishment, not only with the government narrowly escaping shutdown, but on questions of ageism, representation, and fitness for office.

    Feinstein had a noteworthy career. As the longest-running woman in the Senate’s history, she served the nation’s most populous state.

    Yet, as Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld details below, Feinstein’s growing health complications along with two incidents of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell freezing while speaking this year highlight the growing trend of America’s aging leadership.

    The above graphic shows the age of U.S. senators, by state as of October 5, 2023.

    How the Age of U.S. Senators Breaks Down

    Today, 66% of senators are over the age of 60.

    While senators have historically been older than the American population, consider how the median age in the U.S. is 39 according to the 2020 U.S. Census, and the median age of the Senate prior to Feinstein’s passing was 65.

    We can see in the below table how the Senate has become growingly older, influenced by longer lifespans and the increased likelihood of members running for re-election (and winning). In addition, members in the Baby Boomer generation, ages 58 to 77 years old, often have more resources and wealth to help secure their seat.

    Name Senator Age State Party
    Grassley, Chuck 90 Iowa Republican
    Sanders, Bernard 82 Vermont Independent
    McConnell, Mitch 81 Kentucky Republican
    Risch, James E. 80 Idaho Republican
    Cardin, Benjamin L. 80 Maryland Democratic
    King, Angus S., Jr. 79 Maine Independent
    Durbin, Richard J. 78 Illinois Democratic
    Blumenthal, Richard 77 Connecticut Democratic
    Markey, Edward J. 77 Massachusetts Democratic
    Carper, Thomas R. 76 Delaware Democratic
    Shaheen, Jeanne 76 New Hampshire Democratic
    Welch, Peter 76 Vermont Democratic
    Manchin, Joe, III 76 West Virginia Democratic
    Romney, Mitt 76 Utah Republican
    Hirono, Mazie K. 75 Hawaii Democratic
    Warren, Elizabeth 74 Massachusetts Democratic
    Wyden, Ron 74 Oregon Democratic
    Stabenow, Debbie 73 Michigan Democratic
    Reed, Jack 73 Rhode Island Democratic
    Schumer, Charles E. 72 New York Democratic
    Murray, Patty 72 Washington Democratic
    Boozman, John 72 Arkansas Republican
    Crapo, Mike 72 Idaho Republican
    Wicker, Roger F. 72 Mississippi Republican
    Fischer, Deb 72 Nebraska Republican
    Hickenlooper,
    John W.    		 71 Colorado Democratic
    Kennedy, John 71 Louisiana Republican
    Blackburn, Marsha 71 Tennessee Republican
    Cornyn, John 71 Texas Republican
    Barrasso, John 71 Wyoming Republican
    Brown, Sherrod 70 Ohio Democratic
    Scott, Rick 70 Florida Republican
    Collins, Susan M. 70 Maine Republican
    Menendez, Robert 69 New Jersey Democratic
    Tuberville, Tommy 69 Alabama Republican
    Braun, Mike 69 Indiana Republican
    Moran, Jerry 69 Kansas Republican
    Capito,
    Shelley Moore    		 69 West Virginia Republican
    Lummis, Cynthia M. 69 Wyoming Republican
    Warner, Mark R. 68 Virginia Democratic
    Graham, Lindsey 68 South Carolina Republican
    Rounds, Mike 68 South Dakota Republican
    Johnson, Ron 68 Wisconsin Republican
    Tester, Jon 67 Montana Democratic
    Whitehouse, Sheldon 67 Rhode Island Democratic
    Rosen, Jacky 66 Nevada Democratic
    Merkley, Jeff 66 Oregon Democratic
    Murkowski, Lisa 66 Alaska Republican
    Hoeven, John 66 North Dakota Republican
    Cassidy, Bill 66 Louisiana Republican
    Smith, Tina 65 Minnesota Democratic
    Hassan,
    Margaret Wood    		 65 New Hampshire Democratic
    Kaine, Tim 65 Virginia Democratic
    Van Hollen, Chris 64 Maryland Democratic
    Peters, Gary C. 64 Michigan Democratic
    Cantwell, Maria 64 Washington Democratic
    Hyde-Smith, Cindy 64 Mississippi Republican
    Hagerty, Bill 64 Tennessee Republican
    Klobuchar, Amy 63 Minnesota Democratic
    Casey,
    Robert P., Jr.    		 63 Pennsylvania Democratic
    Marshall, Roger 63 Kansas Republican
    Tillis, Thom 63 North Carolina Republican
    Cramer, Kevin 62 North Dakota Republican
    Thune, John 62 South Dakota Republican
    Baldwin, Tammy 61 Wisconsin Democratic
    Daines, Steve 61 Montana Republican
    Coons,
    Christopher A.    		 60 Delaware Democratic
    Paul, Rand 60 Kentucky Republican
    Kelly, Mark 59 Arizona Democratic
    Cortez Masto,
    Catherine    		 59 Nevada Democratic
    Ricketts, Pete 59 Nebraska Republican
    Bennet, Michael F. 58 Colorado Democratic
    Sullivan, Dan 58 Alaska Republican
    Scott, Tim 58 South Carolina Republican
    Gillibrand, Kirsten E. 56 New York Democratic
    Duckworth, Tammy 55 Illinois Democratic
    Lankford, James 55 Oklahoma Republican
    Warnock,
    Raphael G.    		 54 Georgia Democratic
    Booker, Cory A. 54 New Jersey Democratic
    Fetterman, John 54 Pennsylvania Democratic
    Ernst, Joni 53 Iowa Republican
    Rubio, Marco 52 Florida Republican
    Cruz, Ted 52 Texas Republican
    Lee, Mike 52 Utah Republican
    Heinrich, Martin 51 New Mexico Democratic
    Luján, Ben Ray 51 New Mexico Democratic
    Young, Todd 51 Indiana Republican
    Budd, Ted 51 North Carolina Republican
    Padilla, Alex 50 California Democratic
    Murphy, Christopher 50 Connecticut Democratic
    Schatz, Brian 50 Hawaii Democratic
    Schmitt, Eric 48 Missouri Republican
    Sinema, Kyrsten 47 Arizona Independent
    Cotton, Tom 46 Arkansas Republican
    Mullin, Markwayne 46 Oklahoma Republican
    Laphonza Butler 44 California Democratic
    Hawley, Josh 43 Missouri Republican
    Britt, Katie Boyd 41 Alabama Republican
    Vance, J.D. 39 Ohio Republican
    Ossoff, Jon 36 Georgia Democratic

    On the other end of the spectrum are nine senators under the age of 50, including Democrat Jon Ossoff of Georgia, at 36, and Republican senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, at 39. Laphonza Butler, 44, the newly appointed senator to replace Feinstein, also falls within this camp.

    This trend of an older Senate may have policy ramifications.

    Studies show that lawmakers’ identities can influence legislative behavior. Older members of Congress have been shown to have a higher likelihood of introducing legislation on prescription drugs and long-term care, and other issues affecting seniors.

    Other studies show that racial minorities, women, and veterans are more likely to intervene in Congress in the interest of these groups.

    Top U.S. Senators, by Time in Office

    Along with the trend of an older Congress, the average number of years served has also increased.

    Today, senators in the 118th Congress have served 11.2 years on average as of January 2023. Over the 20th century, turnover has decreased due to more senators seeking re-election, which stands in contrast to the Senate’s early history when turnover happened more frequently.

    Below, we show the currently serving senators that have held office the longest, based on their time in both the Senate and the House:

    Name State Party Number of Years in Office
    Grassley, Chuck Iowa Republican 48 years
    Markey, Ed Massachusetts Democrat 46 years
    Wyden, Ron Oregon Democrat 42 years
    Schumer, Charles E. New York Democrat 42 years
    McConnell, Mitch Kentucky Republican 38 years

    Together, the top five U.S. senators have served a combined 216 years in office.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 19:20

  • "As I Look Into The Future, I See Anarchy"
    “As I Look Into The Future, I See Anarchy”

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    One of my favorite investors that I love reading and following, Harris Kupperman, has offered up his thoughts on what his next big bet could be.

    Harris is the founder of Praetorian Capital, a hedge fund focused on using macro trends to guide stock selection.

    Harris is one of my favorite follows and I find his opinions – especially on macro and commodities – to be extremely resourceful. I’m certain my readers will find the same. I was excited when he offered up his latest thoughts, published below (slightly edited for grammar, bold emphasis is QTR’s).

    Please be sure to read both my and Harris’ disclaimers, located at the bottom of this post.

    The Great Macro Dreamscape Part 1

    In late March of 2020, one of the greatest wealth transfers of my lifetime began. It remade our world—or at least it remade my world. Those who recognized Covid as a hoax, were there to reap the rewards. Others who cowered in fear, were my victims. While I pressed the accelerator on exposure and risk, others sought safety in rapidly depreciating cash, or worse, shorted risk assets while they hid from benign germs. Our disparate account statements stand witness to the decisions we each made.

    Now, as we enter the great macro dreamscape, I realize that Covid was simply a warm-up for what seems almost inevitable. Rarely has the world’s only superpower undergone a self-immolation of its multi-faceted role in the global order.

    Gone are our desires to be the global hegemon, support the world’s reserve currency, or even be seen as a respected adult. As we’re increasingly banished to the kid’s table of global discourse, the macro landscape is spiraling at an ever-faster pace. Our bond market is drifting off, doomed by our precarious fiscal balances. Our place in the world is questioned after Afghan goat herders and then Russian convicts faced off against our military machine with great success.

    Meanwhile, our institutions, long hailed globally, descend into corruption, nepotism and incompetence. America isn’t dead, but it needs to be totally reinvented. However, that’s all in the future; as macro investors, we only deal in the present. Nothing is carved in stone, but the outcomes, while path-dependent are increasingly becoming unavoidable.

    Empires rise and fall. They follow an arc. The path downward can be graceful, or clumsy—gradual or sudden. This uncertainty is what creates the current opportunity. Meanwhile, the inevitability of this path, sets in action one of those rare wealth transfers that comes along only once or twice in an investor’s career.

    I intend to take more than my fair share. I intend to be a pig at the trough.

    As an inflection trader, with a focus on second-tier macro trends, I suffered through the 2010s. It was a miserable time for investors like me. Sure, I made a bunch of money, I cannot cry too hard, but it was tough to squeeze Alpha from stone. The trends were mere whispers, and the rewards weren’t always discernable.

    I had to hop around, scavenge at opportunities, and suffer through long periods with little to do. It was frustrating—especially as the Globalist Cucks hid out in large cap tech stocks, that seemed to appreciate endlessly, with single-digit realized volatility.

    Then Covid came along, awakening all the dormant imbalances in the global order. The overreaction of governments finally tipped things out of stasis. For a fleeting moment, there was a fissure in the universe. They opened the skies and money rained down upon my portfolio. I grabbed it until my arms grew so tired that I couldn’t reach out and grab any more. I literally had to force myself to stay in the game, to stay engaged, to focus and push the envelope—especially after the boredom of the prior decade. I also knew it wouldn’t last—I had to maximize the opportunity.

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    Then, the mana became scarce. Opportunity disappeared. Tech resumed its dominance and inflections became rare. I’ve spent the past six quarters wondering if we’re back in the narrative of the past decade, or just traipsing through an extended intermission.

    I’m increasingly of the view that we’re in the eye of the storm, a moment to catch one’s bearings and reassess everything that was previously upheld as the truth. The rules are no longer the rules.

    The Globalists have tried to resurrect their eminence following the Peak Globalist cluster-fuckery that was Covid. Yet, in the process, they’ve shattered their own image, while not realizing it. That revelation is still oncoming. Now freed from a need to uphold their aura of magnanimity, they’ll unleash their most insidious and aggressive attacks on the natural order.

    This will be their final undoing, accompanied first by great suffering for those who are not part of their clique. There is no retreat for the Davos Crowd, they will only push forward, their evil will metastasize. Fortunately, it’s impossible to be a diabolical leader when the peasants laugh at your acronyms and meme your propaganda. The world simply will not congeal to their mold. The tussle to win at all costs will consume them and the nations that they represent.

    Today’s malaise in equity markets is simply an echo bubble; peak beneficent Globalism has already passed us by. Soon, it all comes crumbling down. There’s nothing to replace it. Rather, there’s a fight amongst those who’d gladly inherit the world—yet none are particularly ready to bear that mantle.

    Now, as I look into the future, I see anarchy. Said another way, I see opportunity. Covid was the dry run. Now we’re into the main event. Will the US go down in a supernova of stupid? Or will we stand and fight?

    Will we cower from carbon and affix rainbows to every physical structure, defying the laws of progress? Or will we get on with it and try our best to avert the tailspin? I have no answers, but I know storm clouds when I see them; the storm wall is visible and approaching. How our leaders face these demons, or incite them in fury, will set the tone for this decade’s capital markets.

    I’m not here to say what’s right or wrong. I’m merely focused on the mission at hand. I’m an observer of events, a trader of markets. I believe we’re now entering the golden age of global macro.

    Old orders are collapsing, pulled down by the weight of their hubris. New orders aren’t yet ready to take their place. Chaos is the eager ally of traders with an open mind. Great traders have a fluidity that adjusts to new realities, while conjuring visions of tail events. I expect a proper clusterfuck, full of fury, violence and volatility. While I recognize the suffering that this will bring, I also know that my mission is to stretch my arms out wide and grab as much as I can.

    It’s about to rain opportunity for Macro traders. Unfortunately, it won’t be wealth creation, it will be a wealth transfer. This isn’t my choice, I’m simply a creature of the environment thrust upon me. Those who are ill prepared, are about to be victimized by those who not only understand what’s coming but have educated themselves on how to profit from it. This is my moment!

    War, famine, pestilence, and other biblical plagues are mere phenomena when compared to the pernicious nature of inflation. Unless you’ve lived in a country with persistent inflation, you cannot understand how it works, how it infects society, or how it re-orients prior relationships amongst the political class, the economy and capital assets. Books are mere curios; they cannot really explain the social effects of inflation, the lives destroyed by bad decisions, nor those who profited through it. You need to see it yourself; you need to experience it. Inflation is the great leveler.

    My focus in college was late Roman decline. I am a fatalist at heart—Gibbon was the relative optimist. At the same time, I see opportunity everywhere. Many will say, “then why don’t you just buy gold?” That’s the lazy man’s hedge for what’s coming. Hugo Stinnes is the man to study, not the parasites selling you collapsing mining schemes.

    Come along on this journey into the abyss of the socialist nation-state in its death-rattle. New worlds will be formed. New rules invented. A new hope. But first, the walls must tumble around us. We cannot get too many steps ahead in this adventure. The extreme amplitude of opportunities, the binary nature of bad decisions, they all haunt me, as I know what’s coming.

    When you’re treading on the quicksand of a collapsing global order, every trade may be your last. One cannot get distracted—one must stay focused. A better world will come out of the ashes. I want to invest in that world. Investing in chaos has a melancholy to it. However, I’m a trader—I trade the world that I see. That world is shifting and fast. Castles are crumbling. Everything we’ve held sacred in finance is turning upside down. The pace of change will now accelerate, the oddity, the confusion, the old rules vaporizing—they’ll bury speculators who cannot adapt. I plan to prosper.

    The next few years will be when winners simply keep winning, because they’re grounded in history, with a healthy dose of cynicism and libertarian ethos. The many will grab for wealth, yet mostly end up with fistfuls of rapidly depreciating sand. Last generation’s winners will surrender everything. The laws of finance and even nature itself will be re-invented. Open your mind to the possibilities. You are on this phantasmal voyage; even if you try and disembark—the choice isn’t yours. It’s simply part of the cycle. Instead, embrace it. Prepare for it. Love it.

    It’s about to get wild…

    I’ve waited my whole life for this. I’ve studied. I’ve prepared. I’m ready. Bring it on!

    If you enjoy this content, we’d love to have you on our subscription list. 

    QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

    Harris’ Disclaimer: Past performance of Praetorian Capital Fund LLC and its feeder fund Praetorian Capital Offshore Ltd. (collectively, the “Funds”) is not indicative of future results. No representations or warranties of any kind are made or intended, and none should be inferred, with respect to the economic return or the tax consequences from a potential investment in the Funds. Each investor should consult their own counsel and accountant for advice concerning the various legal, tax and economic matters concerning their investment. The information provided herein does not constitute an offer to sell an interest in the Funds. Such offer can only be made to qualified investors pursuant to the Funds’ Confidential Private Placement Memorandum (“Offering Memorandum”), the Subscription Documents relating thereto and the Limited Liability Company Agreement, as applicable, which set forth the complete terms of the offer. 

    No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information found within this website. Certain information constitutes “forward-looking statements” about potential future results. Those results may not be achieved, due to implementation lag, other timing factors, portfolio management decision-making, economic or market conditions or other unanticipated factors. Nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation whether as to past or future performance or otherwise. Please read Harris’ full disclaimer here.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 19:00

  • Starbucks Closing 7 San Francisco Locations Amid Crime Wave (But Swears It's Unrelated)
    Starbucks Closing 7 San Francisco Locations Amid Crime Wave (But Swears It’s Unrelated)

    In July of 2022, Starbucks announced the closure of 16 profitable locations due to dangerous incidents involving drug use and “other disruptions” in cafes. In a leaked video, former interim CEO Howard Schultz said that the US “has become unsafe,” and that Starbucks is a “window to America.”

    Now, the company is closing seven locations in San Francisco. And while they didn’t cite the explosion in crime in the Golden Gate City (and no leaked videos to shed light), the move comes amid a shocking survey that found roughly 97% of San Francisco’s restaurants have experienced some form of graffiti or property crime in the past month.

    “Each year as a standard course of business, we evaluate the store portfolio to determine where we can best meet our community and customers’ needs,” a spokesperson told the NY Post on Wednesday. “This includes opening new locations, identifying stores in need of investment or renovation, exploring locations where an alternative format is needed and, in some instances, re-evaluating our footprint.”

    Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of 2020, some 40 retail stores have ditched the once-bustling Union Square section of downtown San Francisco — in addition to the dozens of others that have pulled up stakes from surrounding regions of the city.

    Nordstrom, CB2, Anthropologie, Whole Foods, Old Navy, Saks Off 5th, Office Depot, Athleta, Abercrombie & Fitch, Disney, Marshall’s, H&M, and Gap have either closed stores within San Francisco city limits or announced plans to do so. -NY Post

    In June, a study by personal finance website WalletHub ranked San Francisco as the worst-run city in the country, which is no surprise considering that a commercial real estate crisis is unfolding in the downtown area as building owners are defaulting on properties. Crime is out of control, forcing businesses to flee. And Democrats who control the town appear to have no interest in enforcing law and order. 

    What’s more, SF office space has plummeted in value, while Moody’s has lowered the city’s credit rating outlook to negative amid a $780 million budget shortfall due to shrinking tax revenues.

    And now, the city’s homeless residents have seven fewer places to call home.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 18:40

  • Johnstone: When Even The Nazis Aren't Nazis
    Johnstone: When Even The Nazis Aren’t Nazis

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    In what Matt Taibbi has described as “the worst op-ed in history”, Politico Europe has published an astonishing article titled “Fighting against the USSR didn’t necessarily make you a Nazi”, which defends the scandal of the Canadian parliament applauding a literal SS Nazi veteran as a “complicated” issue that is being exploited by “propagandists”.

    Last year liberals were calling their political opponents Nazis and comparing Putin to Hitler. This year they’re defending Nazis and saying you can’t hate someone just because he swore allegiance to Hitler.

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    ❖

    I used to think Nazis were bad but then the mainstream press explained to me that many of the Nazis had reasons for wanting to be Nazis.

    ❖

    For generations the US empire has been manufacturing a cultural obsession with the second world war in order to frame all its subsequent wars as “Good Guys vs Hitler Guys”, then the millisecond that framework became inconvenient it’s “Actually the Nazis weren’t all that bad if you think about it.”

    ❖

    So let’s recap.

    Jeremy Corbyn supporters: Nazis.

    Palestinian rights activists: Nazis.

    People who criticize Israel: Nazis.

    People who didn’t vote for Hillary Clinton: Nazis.

    Ukrainian soldiers with Nazi insignia and Nazi ideology: not Nazis.

    Actual SS Nazis: not Nazis.

    ❖

    The war in Ukraine is a giant field demo for war profiteering corporations to show prospective buyers and investors how effective their products can be at ripping apart human bodies. The whole country’s been turned into a giant advertisement for the military industrial complex.

    Ukraine is the Superbowl for arms industry ads, except instead of costing millions of dollars to advertise there, it costs rivers of human blood.

    ❖

    Super excited for a future Republican president to eventually end the US proxy war in Ukraine and get celebrated as an antiwar hero and then immediately take all those military resources and direct them at China.

    ❖

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    Oh no China’s threatening the US-led liberal world order that destroyed Vietnam and Iraq and Libya and Syria and Yemen and Ukraine and keeps ramping up nuclear brinkmanship and working to topple any government who disobeys it and crushing the world to death with an iron fist.

    ❖

    In the last cold war the media talked about the risk of nuclear war all the time, even at points when the risk wasn’t very high. In the new cold war the media barely talk about the risk of nuclear war at all, even at points where the risk is skyrocketing.

    We don’t talk enough or think enough about the fact that the last cold war brought us inches from nuclear annihilation multiple times due to unforeseeable and unpreventable occurrences, yet we’re plunging headlong into a new cold war with two separate nuclear powers.

    The list of nuclear close calls shows that we survived the last cold war by sheer dumb luck. There’s no evidence-based reason to believe we’ll get lucky again. But here we are, spinning the cylinder of the revolver and putting it to our temple once again. The last cold war showed us in no uncertain terms that nuclear brinkmanship entails far too many small moving parts to accurately predict and control what will happen. And now we’re moving into a high-tech multi-front nuclear standoff with far more small moving parts than before.

    ❖

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    It’s just fascinating how everything gets shifted to the right over the decades. Mother Jones is a centrist propaganda rag. Martin Luther King has been historically revised as an innocuous shitlib. George W Bush is just a harmless old painter. Nazis are just brave heroes protecting their homeland.

    ❖

    I doubt I’ll ever care about any US president being investigated for corruption or misconduct or collusion with a foreign nation. All US presidents are corrupt liars, and that will always be the least of their crimes. Get back to me when they’re jailed for war crimes and mass murder.

    You can care about partisan point-scoring over shit like Trump falsifying business records or Biden engaging in corrupt activities with his son all you want if that’s what excites you, but don’t ask me to. It looks like both parties are going to be trying to impeach each other’s presidents back and forth for the foreseeable future; that’s just what US politics looks like now. Meanwhile the US empire marches on completely unhindered amid all the vapid partisan vitriol.

    ❖

    Trying to fix crime without addressing the underlying causes of crime is like treating an infection with nothing but painkillers. The factors which give rise to crime are no mystery: trauma, poverty, inequality and despair. Just throwing people in prison addresses none of these.

    *  *  *

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece here are some options where you can toss some money into my tip jar if you want to. Go here to buy paperback editions of my writings from month to month. All my work is free to bootleg and use in any way, shape or form; republish it, translate it, use it on merchandise; whatever you want. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley.

    Bitcoin donations: 1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 18:20

  • SEC Sues Elon To Compel Him To Testify; Musk Responds It's Time For Punitive Action Against Regulators Who "Abuse Power For Political Gain"
    SEC Sues Elon To Compel Him To Testify; Musk Responds It’s Time For Punitive Action Against Regulators Who “Abuse Power For Political Gain”

    The SEC, (which stands for either Suck Elon’s C**k or the Securities and Exchange Commission depending on who you ask)…

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    … has sued Elon Musk (again), this time to compel – or at least try – the billionaire CEO of Tesla to testify regarding his purchase of Twitter last year, CNBC reported Thursday. 

    The SEC alleged in a complaint filed in the Northern District of California that Musk didn’t appear for testimony that was required via a subpoena that was served to Musk in May 2023. 

    An official litigation release from the Securities and Exchange Commission, filed on Thursday, said: 

    If a person or entity refuses to comply with a subpoena issued by SEC enforcement staff pursuant to a formal order of investigation, the Commission may file a subpoena enforcement action in federal district court seeking an order compelling compliance. According to the SEC staff’s filing in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, the testimony subpoena to Musk relates to an ongoing investigation by the SEC regarding, among other things, potential violations of various provisions of the federal securities laws in connection with (a) Musk’s 2022 purchases of Twitter, Inc. (“Twitter”) stock, and (b) Musk’s 2022 statements and SEC filings relating to Twitter.

    The SEC also claimed that Musk skipped out on testimony just days before he was supposed to show up: 

    “According to the filing, Musk failed to appear for testimony as required by the investigative subpoena served by the SEC, despite: (1) agreeing to appear for testimony on a mutually agreed upon date in September 2023; (2) having been served with a subpoena in May 2023 requiring his appearance for testimony in the SEC’s San Francisco Regional Office on that mutually agreed upon date; and (3) raising no objection to the subpoena from May 2023 until two days before his scheduled testimony date in September 2023, when Musk notified the SEC that he would not appear.”

    The SEC complaint says: “Musk’s ongoing refusal to comply with the SEC’s administrative subpoena is hindering and delaying the SEC staff’s investigation to determine whether violations of the federal securities laws have occurred. Accordingly, the SEC now asks the Court to compel Musk to appear for investigative testimony.”

    The SEC said it tried to meet Musk in Fort Worth, Texas, “the closest SEC office to Musk’s current personal residence”, and that multiple dates were offered for both October and November of this year. Lawyers for the SEC said Musk refused to comply with the subpoena due to “several spurious objections, including an objection to San Francisco as an appropriate testimony location.”

    “These good faith efforts were met with Musk’s blanket refusal to appear for testimony,” the SEC claims in its suit. It also claimed its “staff is continuing its fact-finding investigation and, to date, has not concluded that any individual or entity has violated the federal securities laws.”

    In response, Musk was – as usual – laconic and to the point, commenting on the same twitter X that he bought, that what is actually needed is “a commission to take punitive action against those individuals who have abused their regulatory power for personal and political gain.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 18:00

  • Civil Rights Agency Sues 2 Businesses That Fired Workers Over COVID Vaccine Refusal
    Civil Rights Agency Sues 2 Businesses That Fired Workers Over COVID Vaccine Refusal

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    COVID-19 vaccines in a file photograph. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

    The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) has sued two businesses for firing workers who had sought religious exemptions to COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

    United Healthcare Services, a Cleveland-based health care provider, and Arkansas-based Hank’s Furniture violated federal law when denying the exemption requests and firing the workers, according to the suits.

    Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 bars discrimination over religion and requires businesses to accommodate a worker’s religious practice unless doing so would cause “undue hardship.”

    “Once an employer is on notice that an employee’s sincerely held religious belief, practice, or observance prevents the employee from getting a COVID-19 vaccine, the employer must provide a reasonable accommodation unless it would pose an undue hardship,” Debra Lawrence, a regional attorney for the EEOC, said in a statement. “Neither healthcare providers nor COVID-19 vaccination requirements are excepted from Title VII’s protections against religious discrimination.”

    Marsha Rucker, another EEOC attorney, said the suit against the furniture retailer “should remind employers they must communicate with employees requesting accommodation for religious beliefs and try to accommodate those beliefs whenever reasonably possible.”

    She pointed to a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that found in favor of a U.S. Postal Service mail carrier who sued after the service refused to accommodate his request not to work on Sundays.

    “There is now a higher bar for employers to meet when denying a religious accommodation,” Mat Staver of Liberty Counsel, a law firm that brings similar cases, said in a statement. “People should not have to choose between their faith and their job.”

    The EEOC said in 2021 that businesses could impose COVID-19 vaccine mandates but would need to provide religious and medical accommodations.

    United Healthcare told The Epoch Times in an email that it plans to “vigorously defend ourselves” against the suit.

    “Among other things, the EEOC’s contention that the employee in question was a remote worker with no in-person job responsibilities is inaccurate,” the company said. “We continue to respect individual beliefs, while working to ensure the health, well-being, and safety of our colleagues and those we are privileged to serve.”

    Hank’s Furniture didn’t have lawyers listed on the court docket and couldn’t otherwise be reached.

    Remote Worker Fired

    Amanda Stone, who started working for United in 2014, was promoted in 2016 to a supervisory position. She was transitioned to work full time from home in 2018 due to budget cuts. Since then, Ms. Stone’s job hasn’t involved any face-to-face duties or a need to enter United facilities, according to one of the suits.

    Along with many other U.S. companies, United Healthcare in October 2021 announced a COVID-19 vaccine mandate. The vaccination requirement was purportedly only for workers who needed to enter the company’s facilities or meet face-to-face with customers, suppliers, or members. United specified that it didn’t apply to people who worked remotely.

    Ms. Stone, though, received word that she needed to get a shot, the suit said.

    Ms. Stone is a Christian who said she has sincerely held religious beliefs, including an opposition to abortion that prevents her from receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. The shots were developed with or tested using cell lines derived from aborted fetuses.

    Ms. Stone submitted a religious exemption request on Oct. 6, 2021, outlining her objections to vaccination. United issued a denial on Oct. 26, 2021.

    Ms. Stone asked her boss how to appeal the decision. She was told she couldn’t appeal but could try again. Ms. Stone did so and was denied a second time. She wasn’t informed either time why she was denied.

    United told Ms. Stone on Nov. 30, 2021, that she was being placed on leave for not complying with the mandate. United said if she didn’t receive a vaccine, she might be terminated. United fired her on Jan. 2, 2022.

    The U.S. court in southern Ohio was asked to block United from discriminating against people on the basis of their religion, ordering United to give Ms. Stone back pay with interest, front pay, or reinstatement, and provide compensation for losses resulting in its discrimination.

    Company Said It Would Never Grant Exemption

    Kaitlyn O’Neal started working for Hank’s Furniture in 2020 and was promoted in 2021 to be an assistant manager.

    Ms. O’Neal was informed by the company in July 2021 that it planned to encourage employees to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, according to the other suit. The company wanted all managers to immediately receive a shot.

    Ms. O’Neal said she didn’t plan to get the vaccine.

    Several weeks later, Ms. O’Neal informed the company that she had sincerely held religious beliefs that would prevent her from getting vaccinated, and asked for a religious exemption.

    Hank’s Furniture sent her online articles in an attempt to change her mind, according to the suit. When contacted by the company, Ms. O’Neal said she hadn’t. When she inquired about how to submit a written request for a religious exemption, the company didn’t respond.

    When Ms. O’Neal complained, her manager and supervisor said Hank’s Furniture didn’t care about her reasons and that the company would never grant an exemption, the EEOC said.

    On Aug. 20, 2021, Hank’s Furniture announced that its policy of encouragement had become a vaccine mandate. Workers who didn’t receive a vaccine by Oct. 31, 2021, would be fired, it said.

    Ms. O’Neal submitted a written request for an accommodation, which was ignored by the company.

    After she followed up, the company said her request was “severely lacking” and was rejected. Ms. O’Neal asked for help in filing a proper request, but the company refused, before firing her on Oct. 31, 2021.

    The EEOC asked the U.S. court in northern Florida to award Ms. O’Neal back pay with interest and order Hank’s Furniture to pay front pay or reinstatement, compensation for losses, and damages. The company should also be blocked from discriminating against workers on the basis of religion, the agency said.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 17:40

  • Putin On Prigozhin Death: Wagner Leaders Got Drunk, High, & Played With Grenades Aboard Plane
    Putin On Prigozhin Death: Wagner Leaders Got Drunk, High, & Played With Grenades Aboard Plane

    President Vladimir Putin just floated the most interesting – and let’s say, colorful – theory to date on why Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane went down outside Moscow on August 23. While much of Western reporting and even Russian media itself have described the Wagner chief’s death as due to either an anti-air missile or a planted bomb being detonated, Putin told an annual meeting of the Valdai Club in Sochi on Thursday that Prigozhin and his men likely got drunk or possibly high, and were playing with grenades.

    Bloomberg, which picked up on the unexpected public comments, wrote: “Russian President Vladimir Putin said pieces of grenade were found in the bodies of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and other mercenary leaders who died in a plane crash, as he hinted that the man who led an armed revolt against the Kremlin’s military leadership had been a drug user.”

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    Putin said, “In the bodies of those who died in the air crash fragments of hand grenades were found.” 

    The Russian leader expressed regret that toxicology tests weren’t conducted on the recovered bodies at the crash site, as they “found not only $10 million in cash, but 5 kilograms of cocaine” in a subsequent raid on Wagner PMC’s main offices in St. Petersburg.

    In total 10 passengers as well as crew were killed aboard the Embraer SA Legacy 600 private jet. US sources have speculated it was likely a bomb that was placed on the plane, and detonated midair. There’s also the Russian shootdown theory, ordered by either Putin or the military as ‘revenge’ for the June Wagner mutiny.

    Broadly, Western sources have viewed the whole killing as an assassination ordered by Putin himself, but which the Kremlin has denied as an “absolute lie”. 

    But given the nonchalant and casual way Putin just told an audience of top Russian officials that it boils down to irresponsible mercenaries getting drunk and high and deciding to play games with hand grenades, it seems Putin could simply be openly taunting his enemies here. Is he trolling?

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    The Thursday comments on Prigozhin’s death were widely reported in international headlines soon after Putin saying them. It came during a lengthy Q&A session with the Russian leader, as is typical of the Valdai format. Putin certainly knows US and European press and officials closely watch and monitor his words at these events.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 17:20

  • Iraq To Fully De-Dollarize Cash Transactions By Year's End
    Iraq To Fully De-Dollarize Cash Transactions By Year’s End

    Via The Cradle,

    The Iraqi government will ban all cash withdrawals and transactions in the US dollar as of January 1st 2024, according to Mazen Ahmed, director-general of investment and remittances at the Iraqi Central Bank (CBI).

    The CBI official says that people who deposit dollars into banks before the end of 2023 will still be able to withdraw these funds in dollars next year. However, dollars deposited in 2024 will only be available in local currency at the official rate of 1,320 dinars.

    “You want to transfer? Transfer. You want a card in dollars? Here you go, you can use the card inside Iraq at the official rate, or if you want to withdraw cash, you can at the official rate in dinars… But don’t talk to me about cash dollars anymore,” Ahmed told Reuters.

    He also claimed the move is meant to “stamp out the illicit use” of about 50 percent of the $10 billion that Iraq imports in cash each year on semimonthly cargo flights from the New York Federal Reserve.

    With more than $100 billion in reserves held by US banks, Baghdad heavily relies on the goodwill of US officials to ensure the economy doesn’t collapse. Furthermore, since 2003, all Iraqi oil revenues have been paid into an account with the US Federal Reserve, allowing Washington to control the Iraqi economy and pressure its government.

    On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US officials last month refused to approve the transfer of an extra $1 billion in cash to Iraq from the country’s oil sales proceeds.

    “After the US denied Iraq’s initial appeal last month, the [CBI] last week submitted a formal request, which the [US] Treasury is still considering,” a senior Iraqi official told the WSJ.

    The move reportedly angered Iraqi officials, who said they need access to their oil revenues to protect Iraq’s cash reserves after recent restrictions from the White House “set off panic buying of greenbacks and hoarding of dollars by exchanges.”

    US Treasury officials reportedly told CBI officials that “sending a large extra shipment is contrary to Washington’s goal of reducing Iraq’s use of US banknotes in favor of more easily traceable electronic transactions.”

    With more than $100 billion in reserves held hostage by the US, Washington has significant leverage over the Iraqi economy and banking system. In July, the US Treasury sanctioned fourteen Iraqi private banks accusing them of facilitating US dollar transfers to Iran, a country whose economy Washington seeks to suffocate via sanctions. As a result of this, nearly a third of Iraq’s 72 banks are now banned from facilitating dollar transactions.

    In 2022, Iraq’s central bank enforced tight regulations under US pressure to ensure dollars do not reach Iran. Bank clients wishing to transfer dollar funds must apply through an online platform and provide detailed information on end recipients before a transfer is approved.

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    Iraqi MP and member of the Finance Committee in Iraq’s Council of Representatives, Hussein Mouanes, told The Cradle in an exclusive interview in May: “Iraq has been and continues to be a slave to the US dollar… every country’s economic strength depends on the strength of its currency.”

    “It is clear that Iraq is economically dominated by the US, and our government does not truly control or have access to its own money… We believe that it is crucial to move away from the hegemony of the dollar, especially as it has become a tool to impose sanctions on countries. It is time for Iraq to rely on its local currency,” he added.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 17:00

  • 56 Rare Porsches Head To Auction Despite Classic Car Bubble Bursting At This Week's Sotheby's
    56 Rare Porsches Head To Auction Despite Classic Car Bubble Bursting At This Week’s Sotheby’s

    Auctioneer RM Sotheby’s announced on X earlier this week that it’s presenting “The White Collection,” a stunning 56-car-strong collection of Porsches, from 356 B Carrera 2 to a 2015 918 Spyder, on Dec. 2. 

    Sotheby’s said The White Collection took the owner over a decade to collect, where many of these vehicles are in original condition. “To truly comprehend this collection’s depth, one has to understand the secondary Porsche market,” Gord Duff, global head of auctions at RM Sotheby’s, told Forbes. 

    Duff continued, “These vehicles, which show high originality and remarkably low mileage, are among the most sought-after Porsche sports cars in the current market.”

    The collection has 63 lots, including 56 Porsche sports cars, two Porsche tractors, and other notable automotive memorabilia. 

    The vehicles will hit the auction block as the economy slumps under President Biden. JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Barclays, and Citi have all warned about faltering consumers. And stock and bond market turmoil, as well as political chaos in Washington, DC, doesn’t help with sentiment. Also, interest rates at decade highs have killed fast money at auctions. 

    Many Sotheby’s and/or Barrett-Jackson auctions are attended by wealthy boomers, maybe some millennials, and very few Gen Zers. So when risk parity portfolios underperform for boomers — their ability to splurge on classic cars and cruise ship travel becomes obsolete. 

    To get a glimpse of how boomers at RM Sotheby’s auctions feel considering the challenging political and macroenvironment. One X user posted at a Sotheby’s auction on Wednesday night -detailed in a series of posts – that blue chip cars were selling well below Sotheby’s price range. 

    The X user showed a 1931 Cadillac 370-A V-12 Roadster by Fleetwood that was forecasted to fetch $250k – $300k but only sold for $187k – well below the range offered by the auctioneer. 

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    “Another Pebble Beach car sold for 50% off at RM Sotheby’s. Terrible sentiment is reflected in poor economy,” he said. 

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    Taking a look at the classic car bubble, Hagerty indexes show American Muscle, Blue Chip, British, and Ferrari automobiles peaked right before Covid. Many of these vehicles are popular with boomers and shunned by millennials. Some of these vehicles may have peaked for good as the younger generations want no parts of these cars. 

    1950s American

    Blue Chip

    British

    Ferrari

    German Collectibles have also stalled. 

    And American Muscle Cars is running out of buyers. 

    Meanwhile, easy money during Covid sent Affordable Classics rocketing higher. 

    As for the Porsche collection, the auction’s upcoming results might hint at how wealthy consumers feel considering the challenging environment.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/05/2023 – 16:40

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