Today’s News 7th July 2022

• Belarus Threatens To Strike Poland If Cross-Border "Provocations" Launched
  Belarus Threatens To Strike Poland If Cross-Border “Provocations” Launched

  On Wednesday the Belarusian military issued a stern warning and statement threatening that it’s ready to strike Polish military infrastructures if “provocations” are launched from Poland, however no specifics were given on the type of aggression Belarus is alleging could happen.

  The vague warning comes as tensions are already soaring between close Putin-ally Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus and outspoken NATO member Poland. For starters, Warsaw has long accused Lukashenko of weaponizing migrants, and days ago completed construction on a controversial new section of border wall spanning 186 kilometers. 

  Poland is likening the border wall as part of the country’s “fight against Russia”. Last Thursday Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki while speaking of the wall said, “The first sign of the war in Ukraine was [Belarus President] Alexander Lukashenko’s attack on the Polish border.”

  

  And now, late in the day Wednesday, the Polish prime minister is alleging that Russian agencies have conducted a major hack of Polish government devices, per news wires. The accusation comes a week after several Lithuanian public and private websites went down in what was described as a cyberattack carried out by a Russian-backed hacker group.

  Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that Russia is attempting to draw its large ally Belarus into the Ukraine conflict. So far, Belarus’ logistics and staging support to Russian troops has been well-known, but Minsk has refrained from sending in active military forces.

  Additionally, late last month Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia will supply Belarus with Iskander-M mobile guided missile systems. Though conventional weapons, they they are capable of carrying nuclear warheads – thus the action earned the condemnation of the Pentagon after Putin said, “we will transfer to Belarus Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use ballistic or cruise missiles, in their conventional and nuclear versions.”

  Iskander missiles are known to have a range of up to 500km and will be handed over to Belarus “within months,” according to Putin’s prior statement.

  At the time of that announcement, Lukashenko informed Putin that Belarus remains alarmed “aggressive” and “confrontational” policies of its NATO neighbors Lithuania and Poland.

  

  This has fueled concern that should the Ukraine war spill across borders, the fault line would be precisely along Russia’s ally Belarus and its Baltic and East European neighbors to the West. Belarus has already come under US and EU sanctions for its open support given to Putin’s war efforts against Ukraine, allowing Russia to launch the Feb.24 invasion from its territory.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 02:45

• Escobar: The Empire Is Not Done Torturing Afghanistan
  Escobar: The Empire Is Not Done Torturing Afghanistan

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  Despite its resounding defeat, NATO is not quite done with inflicting misery on the land of the Afghans…

  

  Once upon a time, in a galaxy not far away, the Empire of Chaos launched the so-called “War on Terror” against an impoverished cemetery of empires at the crossroads of Central and South Asia.

  In the name of national security, the land of the Afghans was bombed until the Pentagon ran out of targets, as their chief Donald Rumsfeld, addicted to “known unknowns,” complained at the time.

  Operation ‘Enduring Captivity’

  Civilian targets, also knows as “collateral damage,” was the norm for years. Multitudes had to flee to neighboring nations to find shelter, while tens of thousands were incarcerated for unknown reasons, some even dispatched to an illegal imperial gulag on a tropical island in the Caribbean.

  War crimes were duly perpetrated – some of them denounced by an organization led by a sterling journalist who was subsequently subjected to years of psychological torture by the same Empire, obsessed with extraditing him into its own prison dystopia.

  All the time, the smug, civilized ‘international community’ – shorthand for the collective west – was virtually deaf, dumb and blind. Afghanistan was occupied by over 40 nations – while repeatedly bombed and droned by the Empire, which suffered no condemnation for its aggression; no package after package of sanctions; no confiscation of hundreds of billions of dollars; no punishment at all.

  The first casualty of war

  At the peak of its unipolar moment, the Empire could experiment with anything in Afghanistan because impunity was the norm. Two examples spring to mind: Kandahar, Panjwayi district, March 2012: an imperial soldier kills 16 civilians and then burns their bodies. While in Kunduz, April 2018: a graduation ceremony receives a Hellfire missile greeting, with over 30 civilians killed.

  The final act of the imperial “non-aggression” against Afghanistan was a drone strike in Kabul that did not hit “multiple suicide bombers” but instead eviscerated a family of 10, including several children. The “imminent threat” in question, identified as an “ISIS facilitator” by US intelligence, was actually an aid worker returning to meet his family. The ‘international community’ duly spewed imperial propaganda for days until serious questions started to be asked.

  Questions also keep emerging on the conditions surrounding the Pentagon training of Afghan pilots to fly the Brazilian-built A-29 Super Tucano between 2016 and 2020, which completed over 2,000 missions providing support for imperial strikes. During training at Moody Air Force base in the US, more than half of the Afghan pilots actually went AWOL, and afterward, most were quite uneasy with the pile up of civilian ‘collateral damage.’ Of course the Pentagon has kept no record of Afghan victims.

  What was extolled instead by the US Air Force is how the Super Tucanos dropped laser bombs on ‘enemy targets:’ Taliban fighters who “like to hide in towns and places” where civilians live. Miraculously, it was claimed that the “precision” strikes never “hurt the local people.”

  That’s not exactly what an Afghan refugee in Britain, sent away by his family when he was only 13, revealed over a month ago, talking about his village in Tagab: “All the time there was fighting over there. The village belongs to the Taliban (…) My family is still there, I do not know if they are alive or died. I don’t have any contact with them.”

  Drone diplomacy

  One of the first foreign policy decisions of the Obama administration in early 2009 was to turbo-charge a drone war over Afghanistan and the tribal areas in Pakistan. Years later, a few intelligence analysts from other NATO nations started to vent off the record, about CIA impunity: drone strikes would get a green light even if killing scores of civilians was a near certainty – as it happened not only in ‘AfPak’ but also across other war theaters in West Asia and North Africa.

  Nevertheless, imperial logic is ironclad. The Taliban were by definition “terra-rists” – in trademark Bush drawl. By extension, villages in Afghan deserts and mountains were aiding and abetting “terra-rists,” so eventual drone victims would never raise a ‘human rights’ issue.

  When Afghans – or Palestinians – become collateral damage, that’s irrelevant. When they become war refugees, they are a threat. Yet Ukrainian civilian deaths are meticulously recorded and when they become refugees, they are treated as heroes.

  A massive ‘data-driven defeat’

  As former British diplomat Alastair Crooke has remarked, Afghanistan was the definitive showcase for technical managerialism, the test bed for “every single innovation in technocratic project management” encompassing Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and military sociology embedded in ‘Human Terrain Teams’ – this experiment helped spawn Empire’s ‘rules-based international order.’

  But then, the US-backed puppet regime in Kabul collapsed not with a bang, but a whimper: a spectacular “data-driven defeat.”

  Hell hath no fury like Empire scorned. As if all the bombing, droning, years of occupation and serial collateral damage was not misery enough, a resentful Washington topped its performance by effectively stealing $7 billion from the Afghan central bank: that is, funds that belong to roughly 40 million battered Afghan citizens.

  Now, exiled Afghans are getting together trying to prevent relatives from 9/11 victims in the US to seize $3.5 billion of these funds to pay off debts allegedly owed by the Taliban – who have absolutely nothing to do with 9/11.

  Unlawful does not even begin to qualify the confiscation of assets from an impoverished nation afflicted by a currency in free fall, high inflation and a terrifying humanitarian crisis, whose only ‘crime’ was to defeat the imperial occupation on the battleground fair and square. By any standards, would that persist, the qualification of international war crime applies. And collateral damage, in this case, will mean the termination of any “credibility” still enjoyed by the “indispensable nation.”

  The full amount of foreign reserves should be unequivocally returned to the Afghan Central Bank. Yet everyone knows that’s not going to happen. At best, a limited monthly installment will be released, barely enough to stabilize prices and allow average Afghans to buy essentials such as bread, cooking oil, sugar and fuel.

  The west’s own ‘Silk Road’ was dead on arrival

  No one remembers today that the US State Department came up with its own New Silk Road idea in July 2011, formally announced by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a speech in India. Washington’s aim, at least in theory, was to re-link Afghanistan with Central/South Asia, yet privileging security over the economy.

  The spin was to “turn enemies into friends and aid into trade.” The reality, however, was to prevent Kabul from falling into the Russia/China sphere of influence – represented by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – after the tentative withdrawal of US troops in 2014 (the Empire ended up formally being expelled only in 2021).

  The American Silk Road would eventually allow the go-ahead for projects such as the TAPI natural gas pipeline, the CASA-1000 electricity line, the Sheberghan thermal power facility and a national fiber optic ring in the telecom sector.

  There was much talk about  “development of human resources;” building infrastructure – railways, roads, dams, economic zones, resource corridors; promotion of good governance; building the capacity of “local stakeholders.”

  A zombie of an empire

  In the end, the Americans did less than nothing. The Chinese, playing the long game, will be leading Afghanistan’s resurgence, after patiently waiting for the Empire to be expelled.

  Afghanistan for its part will be welcomed into the real New Silk Roads: the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), complete with financing by the Silk Road Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and interconnecting with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Central Asian BRI corridor, and eventually the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Iran-India-Russia-led International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC).

  Now compare and contrast with imperial minions NATO, whose “new” strategic concept boils down to expanded warmongering against the Global South, and beyond – including the outer galaxies. At least we know that should NATO ever be tempted back into Afghanistan, then another ritual, excruciating humiliation awaits.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 02:00

• Attorneys Claim Government Manufacturing Evidence To Charge, Incarcerate Jan. 6 Prisoners
  Attorneys Claim Government Manufacturing Evidence To Charge, Incarcerate Jan. 6 Prisoners

  Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  As Jan. 6 prisoners continue to languish in jail without trials, without bond and in subhuman conditions, two Jan. 6 attorneys are claiming the government is manufacturing evidence to arrest and incarcerate them. Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) says the government is also “hiding evidence” that could possibly exonerate some of them.

  

  This is not the first time Democrats have manufactured evidence to support their allegations in a legal proceeding.

  A History of Fabricating Evidence

  In July of 2018, the infamous Steele dossier was revealed to be little more than a collection of unverified opposition research funded by Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC), to obtain a warrant to spy on former Trump campaign volunteer Carter Page and to derail the Trump campaign.

  During a Sept. 26, 2019, Intelligence Committee hearing, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) read a fabricated transcript of a phone call between former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. When he was caught, he claimed it was “a parody.”

  During the first impeachment trials in February 2021, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) used a photoshopped version of a Twitter post Trump re-tweeted about supporters “fighting” for the country to make it seem more ominous.

  After being caught and being forced to admit they doctored a text message between Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows during the December 2021 Jan. 6 hearings, and also excluded content about how they had wanted former Vice President Mike Pence to handle electoral votes during the Joint Session of Congress, Jordan further opined that their statement saying “We regret the error,” is really government-speak for, “We got caught lying.”

  At the televised House committee hearing related to the protests that took place at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021—Jordan said members of the House select committee had altered a text message exchange between him and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows “and lied to the American people about it.”

  J-6 Cases: ‘Manipulating Evidence’

  Joseph McBride, an attorney for multiple Jan. 6 prisoners and defendants, is certain the government is “manipulating evidence.”

  “In terms of attorneys,” McBride told The Epoch Times, “I’m probably the most outspoken attorney in the United States of America who is representing Jan. 6 defendants.”

  McBride said he has “five, going on six” criminal defendants related to Jan. 6 and three civil rights cases. He also represented five Jan. 6 defendants before the Jan. 6 committee. Considering the depth of his involvement, McBride believes he’s “far and away” the most eligible and outspoken attorney among those attached to the Jan. 6 legal battles.

  “You are not allowed to punish a pre-trial detainee in the United States of America because you are innocent until proven guilty” McBride stated. “It is only after you have been convicted of a crime or plead through a crime that you can be punished for a crime. Punishment for a crime is deprivation of freedom. … My clients and others like them have been brutally assaulted. They’ve been locked away in cells for months at a time. They’ve been denied medical care and have had their human rights, their civil rights, and their constitutional rights violated by the staff at the D.C. gulag, by the staff at the Northern Neck jail because they have been green-lighted by the Biden machine to harm anybody who showed up at the Capitol on January 6 to speak out about the election results. It is unconstitutional. It is immoral. It is un-American. It is wrong.”

  Suspicious Affidavits

  McBride also says the government’s use of lengthy and extravagantly detailed affidavits is “much different than your normal cases and they’re frontloading these complaints with facts that aren’t proven and these allegations are subsequently being weaponized in the court of public opinion.”

  According to McBride, complaint affidavits are generally written as hastily as possible because the only purpose of a complaint affidavit is to initiate the legal process by establishing probable cause. Complaint affidavits are normally followed quickly by the return of an indictment by a grand jury.

  But the Jan. 6 complaint affidavits can run in excess of 20, 30, 40, and even 50 pages long, which begs the question of “why?”

  For McBride, the answer is simple. Because Department of Justice (DOJ) policy only allows the government to make public comments about matters that are already a matter of public record, making sure all of that detail is part of the public record enables the government to release this information to the public to destroy the reputations of the accused ahead of a trial.

  Another Jan. 6 attorney, Bill Shipley, is equally convinced the government is manufacturing evidence to support a narrative.

  Shipley has called into question the validity of photo and video screenshot “evidence” used in three of his cases. Two of them are outlined below.

  The Case of Brian Mock

  According to the 14-page Criminal Complaint (pdf), Brian Christopher Mock has been charged with: “Assaulting, Resisting, or Impeding Certain Officers, Knowingly Entering or Remaining in any Restricted Building or Grounds Without Lawful Authority; Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Grounds, Obstruction of Law Enforcement During Civil Disorder, Acts of Physical Violence in any of the Capitol Buildings or Grounds.”

  However, all of the charges are based on screen grabs from videos that do not confirm the allegations.

  Shipley told The Epoch Times “both the government and the court have acknowledged that video 1 does not show any actual assault by defendant Mock as alleged in the indictment.”

  “If video 1 showed Mr. Mock kicking the fallen officer it would have been simple to write, ‘The video shows Mr. Mock kicking the fallen officer,’” Shipley said. “Judge Howell didn’t write that because video 1 doesn’t show that.  The government knows it, Mr. Mock knows it, and Judge Howell knew it.

  “The simple reality is that video 1 shows the unidentified victim officer already on the ground when Mr. Mock is first seen on camera. There are two other protesters—one wearing camouflage and the other wearing a red hat—on the ground with the victim officer at the moment defendant Mock is first seen. Defendant Mock is standing in close proximity to the three of them.  He is not seen shoving the fallen officer to the ground.”

  According to Shipley, the entire segment of video 1, which is relevant to the first alleged assault, lasts only four seconds. At no point during those four seconds does video 1 show Mock’s foot making contact with any part of the Officer’s body.

  “Nevertheless, the government made a proffer in its emergency motion (pdf) that the video showed defendant Mock shoving the officer to the ground and then kicking the officer” and “relied heavily on a single screenshot from the video that appears to show defendant Mock’s right foot off the ground.”

  “If the government had video of Mr. Mock’s right foot striking the victim officer, it is quite certain it would have included a screenshot of that particular moment instead of the one it choose,” Shipley argued. “The obvious conclusion is the government has no such video.  It hasn’t produced one in discovery.”

  

  In another incident, Mock is accused of shoving an officer to the ground, causing and injury to the officer’s right elbow.

  According to the 14-page criminal complaint (pdf), filed June 10, 2021, by Special Agent Beth Alvarez, “Officer [SK] recalled being shoved onto his back by one of the rioters. During the melee, Officer [SK’s] right elbow was hit right in the area where two protective pads on his arm meet.”

  When Mock was arrested, Alvarez—the affiant on the complaint affidavit—wrote the following statement under oath:

  “According to Victim 2, his right elbow hit the ground right in the area where two pads come together after the shove, causing excruciating pain at the time of impact.”

  The complaint affidavit is dated June 10, 2021, precisely one month after the interview of the officer. During the 30 days between those two documents, the mechanics of how the officer injured his elbow changed. She first wrote he suffered the injury to his elbow “during the melee,” without reference to Mock or his actions. However, one month later, Alvarez wrote that his right elbow hit the ground right in the area where the two pads come together as a result of Mock’s shove.

  Brian Mock has created a GiveSendGo account to help offset his ongoing legal expenses.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 23:25

• South Korea Is Revamping A Push For Nuclear Energy To Meet Its Emission Targets
  South Korea Is Revamping A Push For Nuclear Energy To Meet Its Emission Targets

  In energy, it looks like common sense is starting to win out at least somewhere…

  South Korea is going to be adding 4 more nuclear reactors by 2030 and will also be extending the life of 10 other plants, according to a new report from Bloomberg. The expansion of its nuclear power capabilities comes amidst a struggle to bring the country to net zero emissions.

  More than 30% of the nation’s power will soon be provided by nuclear by the end of the decade, the report says. This would be up from 27.4% last year. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been a supporter of nuclear throughout his campaign for president. 

  Yoon Suk Yeol has said that nuclear could be used alongside of renewables to reach emission targets. Renewable energy’s share of the country’s emissions targets will be adjusted under the new government, however it’ll maintain the previous government’s emissions goals.

  

  President Moon Jae-in’s administration previously had plans to phase out nuclear, a policy that some said could see electricity costs for the country rise 5x by 2050. Additional nuclear reactor builds were scrapped under the administration. 

  The incoming administration is also going to be expanding strategic reserves for oil and liquefied natural gas. Crude stockpiles, for example, will rise to more than 100 million barrels by 2025, up from 96.5 million barrels currently. LNG reserves will rise to 18.4 million kiloliters by 2034, up from 13.7 million, the report says. 

  Jang Daul, a government relations and advocacy specialist at Greenpeace East Asia based in Seoul, of course had a problem with the idea, telling Bloomberg: “The fact that the new government is saying renewable energy will be adjusted at a ‘reasonable level’ basically means it will be lowering the renewable electricity target.”

  We have long suggested that nuclear power is a pragmatic solution to the world’s energy needs and our contributors have argued that advocates know it is clean, efficient and safe.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 23:05

• Is The Chinese Yuan Beginning To Chip Away At Dollar Dominance?
  Is The Chinese Yuan Beginning To Chip Away At Dollar Dominance?

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  China appears to be chipping away at dollar dominance.

  

  While there is no indication that the dollar is in imminent danger of toppling from its perch as the global reserve currency, more central banks are warming up to the yuan.

  According to UBS Asset Management’s annual reserve manager survey, about 85% of central banks said they are invested in or are considering investing in the Chinese yuan. That’s up from 81% a year earlier.

  USB surveyed 30 top central banks.

  On average, central bank foreign exchange managers plan to hold about 5.8% of reserves in yuan within the next 10 years. That would represent a sharp increase from the 2.9% level of global reserve yuan holdings reported by the International Monetary Fund in late June.

  Meanwhile, the average share of US dollar holdings dropped to 63% as of June 2022, according to the survey. That was down from 69% in the previous year.

  According to Business Insider, the response to the invasion of  Ukraine “has increased talk about a ‘multipolar’ world, in which the US is no longer the overwhelmingly dominant force.

  There is some speculation that the weaponization of the dollar to punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine has motivated some countries to diversify away from the dollar. Less exposure to the greenback means less exposure to diplomatic and economic pressure from Washington DC.

  Declining confidence in the dollar started long before recent events in Ukraine. The Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars out of thin air in response to COVID-19. This devalued the dollar as evidenced by the surge in prices over the last year. This was the predictable result of creating money out of thin air and handing it out to spend. More money chasing the same amount (or with governments shutting down economies fewer) goods and services will always lead to a general rise in prices.

  The only reason the US can get away with this policy to the extent that it does is its role as the world reserve currency. There is a built-in global demand for dollars that helps absorb the money printing. But what happens if that demand drops? What happens if China and other countries decide they don’t want to hold a currency that is losing value every day?

  After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US cut some Russian banks, including the central bank, off from the SWIFT payment system.

  SWIFT  stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The system enables financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardized environment. Since the dollar serves as the world reserve currency, SWIFT facilitates the international dollar system.

  SWIFT and dollar dominance gives the US a great deal of leverage over other countries.

  And the US went a step further. In an unprecedented move, the Federal Reserve froze Russia’s dollar reserves. In effect, Russia’s dollar assets are valueless to the country. It can’t use them at all.

  Even if you think Russia deserves these draconian economic sanctions, it’s important to remember that they could come at a cost.

  Recent dollar strength compared to other world currencies suggests that the dollar remains in a strong position. But things could shift quickly. How much more borrowing and printing will the world tolerate before they become wary of holding dollars? And will the US propensity to use the dollar as a foreign policy weapon undermine trust in the greenback?

  The world is watching.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 22:45

• Heat Dome Roasting Millions Across Central US
  Heat Dome Roasting Millions Across Central US

  A dangerous heat wave continues to linger over the central and southern Plains to the Southeast. 

  “There is a strong heat dome, and underneath that, we have had much above-normal to near-record temperatures.

  “The pattern has been pretty stagnant and consistent for the last several weeks,” Zack Taylor, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center, told Bloomberg. 

  Widespread excessive heat warnings and heat advisories stretch across Texas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, and all the way to the Carolinas for Thursday. 

  

  Taylor said two low-pressure systems, one in the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast, have trapped heat in the central US for the last several weeks.

  

  On Thursday, metro areas in the central and southern Plains could break daily temperature records. Memphis is expected to break a 147-year record of 102 degrees Ferhinheigth set in 1875. 

  Dangerous heat will continue across the Mid-South this week. The entire Mid-South is in an Excessive Heat Warning through at least Thursday evening for heat index values at or above 110 degrees. #tnwx #arwx #mswx #mowx pic.twitter.com/rgxd6ian4x

  — NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) July 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Relief might not come until late next week as the heat dome trapped over the central US continues to bake millions of people. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 22:25

• Treasury Market Whiplash Speaks To Lack Of Conviction, Liquidity
  Treasury Market Whiplash Speaks To Lack Of Conviction, Liquidity

  By Benjamin Purvis, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  The switchbacks that US rate markets have witnessed in the past few days have been quite breathtaking. It’s not just that the moves have been big — we’ve been seeing a lot of that lately as traders adjust their views on inflation and growth — but that the market has been turning so sharply within the space of a session, and seemingly out of proportion to any change in fundamental circumstances that data or central bank commentary might suggest.

  

  The volatility underscores not only a lack of certainty about which way inflation and recession risks will play out, but also speaks to both the lack of liquidity within markets and a lack of real conviction among investors. The former has been a hot topic of discussion, particularly as the Fed embarks on its quantitative tightening program. And the latter is borne out by recent indicators that show many folks desperately clinging to neutral stances.

  The big round number that is 3% provides a useful illustration for just how whiplashy things have been. Earlier on Wednesday, it was a key focus for the long end, with the 30-year breaking below that level for the first time in over a month. But by day’s end, the long bond was nowhere near there and it was the two-year rate pushing back above that level.

  The 10-year yield meanwhile had a roundtrip of almost 19 basis points on the day Wednesday, having been down more than 6 and ending up by more than 12. And it had an even bigger journey the day before, albeit in a broadly opposite direction.

  This doesn’t all happen in a vacuum, of course. Various economic indicators and the release of the most recent Fed minutes have provided plenty for traders to chew on. The vagaries of risk-taking in stock markets and elsewhere are also adding to the turbulence. But it’s still hard to see a catalyst for investors genuinely reassessing their views so much in such a short period of time.

  And indeed, if you step back a little, you see they’re not. Despite all the sound and fury, the ranges for say, the 10-year yield, have been broadly similar for the past three days. Little wonder, I guess, that real money investors might look to stay on the sidelines a bit longer, at least until they summon a slightly more conviction themselves about which way the economy, policy and markets are headed.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 22:05

• Goldman: "The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession"
  Goldman: “The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession”

  Goldman, which like Morgan Stanley and unlike Nomura and Deutsche Bank, refuses to make a recession its base case (but is quick to make it very clear that in case of recession the S&P will drop to 3,150), has looked back at all the 77 recessions across the globe since 1961 to provide context around the current economic environment in a report titled “Revisiting Recession Facts” (available to pro subs).  The report’s bottom-line according to Goldman’s Chris Hussey: some of what we are seeing today — economic overheating and large increases in rates — suggests that the world could be on the brink of a rather severe recession.” That said, the bank highlights several other aspects of the current environment which provide a buffer against a notable turndown in activity. And for once we agree with Goldman, according to which the key thing to watch is the “fiscal and monetary response to a downturn.” And since Democrats will lose Congress this November and there will be no new fiscal stimulus until 2025 at the earliest, we would add that the only thing to watch is the monetary response, i.e., when the Fed will i) cut rates back to zero, ii) resume QE and/or iii) cut rates negative.

  Before we dig into the Goldman report, which looks at key facts about the frequency and severity of recessions analyzing 77 recessions in advanced economies since 1961, here are the main findings:

  • According to Goldman, the odds that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK.
  • Goldman’s subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
  • The unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s with larger increases in the 1980s and the UK but smaller increases in Japan. The distribution is slightly skewed towards larger increases in more severe recessions.
  • Economic overheating—high unit labor cost growth and high core inflation—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, elevated private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.
  • Currently, across the advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession. Higher measures of economic overheating in the US, UK, and Canada than in Japan and the Euro area suggest that the next recession may be somewhat less shallow in these English-speaking G10 economies. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession for all economies, hinting at a shallow next recession.
  • Other factors outside the historical dataset paint a mixed picture. On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual and energy disruptions are the main risk in Europe. On the optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored and substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain.

  With that in mind, let’s delve deeper into the report starting with…

  Frequency

  Goldman summarizes the historical frequency of recessions using official recession classifications, such as the NBER in the US, when available. Exhibit 1 shows that the annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s has been roughly 15% on average. It also shows that recession risk has not varied much across countries or over time over the past several decades.

  

  Goldman’s subjective recession probability in the US of 30% over the next year is also elevated relative to its own extended history. The annual probability of entering a recession in the US has averaged 12% since the 90’s (Exhibit 2), though it averaged a much higher 23% between 1855-1990. US recessions have become less frequent following the creation of the Federal Reserve, the anchoring of inflation expectations, and the decline in the relative importance of the cyclical manufacturing sector.

  

  Severity

  Goldman then defines the severity of recessions using the trough to peak change in the unemployment rate. The list excludes the “exogenous” pandemic recession of 2020 as increases in the unemployment rate were either outsized outliers in countries such as the US and Canada or significantly limited by furlough schemes in Europe and Japan.

  Exhibit 3 shows that the unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s, with somewhat larger increases in the 1980s (Exhibit 3, left). Countries with larger increases in the unemployment rate also tend to have less frequent recessions—including the UK, Netherlands, and Sweden. In contrast, countries with smaller increases in the unemployment rate tend to have more frequent recessions, such as Germany, Italy, and Japan.

  

  The distribution of the change in the unemployment rate during recessions shows a slight skew towards more severe recessions. The distributions in the UK and Canada are especially skewed towards more severe recessions, while the distribution in Japan is skewed towards less severe recessions.

  

  Predictors of Severity

  Goldman next summarizes the predictors of recession severity focusing on variables that have a long history: it finds that economic overheating—unit labor cost growth and high core inflation (Exhibit 5)—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, large private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.

  

  Implications

  What do these findings imply for the size of the next recession? Across advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession, with more overheating in the US, UK, and Canada and less in Japan and the Euro area. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession across advanced economies.

  

   

  Taken together, Exhibits 6 and 7 paint a mixed picture about the size of the next recession in the English-speaking G10 economies.

  According to Goldman, on the pessimistic side, elevated economic overheating measures point to a higher than usual right tail risk of severe recession. On the optimistic side, the bank’s strategists suggest that the large private sector surplus points to a shallow recession; what they ignore is the adverse effect of tens of trillions in lost equity value, which last time we looked is viewed as “savings” by modern economists too. So while there may be $2 trillion more in excess savings, there is $20 trillion less in stock market equity. Which is worse?

  Turning to other factors outside of Goldman’s historical dataset, we again see a mixed picture.

  On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual because policy rates remain close to their effective lower bound while both central bank balance sheets and government debt levels are very large by historical standards. Moreover, the exposure to the war in Ukraine and the risk of energy supply shortages paint a relatively negative view for Germany and Italy, especially with the possibility of gas shutdowns in the winter. On the more optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored, although as even Powell will admit, that is changing fast. Moreover, substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain in both global supply chains—where delivery times have shortened—and in the labor market.

  

  What is more relevant however, is that as Goldman writes in a separate report titled Timing the cuts, “Investors seem to be shifting focus from pricing a potential recession, to pricing future Fed cuts … for as early as 2023.” Indeed, as we have been pounding the table since early this year, the timing of those cuts is all that matters.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 21:45

• Luongo: China Queues Up To Join The Davos Beatdown
  Luongo: China Queues Up To Join The Davos Beatdown

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  The headlines are full of abject terror that Germany’s vaunted industrial base can collapse, and with it the banking sector, if Russia pulls all natural gas supplies.

  Of course, this is exactly what the EU said they wanted, and the question now is will they get it, to quote H.L. Mencken, “good and hard.”

  So, finally, after destroying their own economy, the politicians in Europe are considering the right question, “Did we do this to ourselves?”

  The Euro’s collapse yesterday morning to a new twenty-year low below $1.03 is answering a resounding, “Yes. Yes you did.” I’m sure the board at Uniper, now staring at a $9+ billion bailout after Vice-Chancellor Robert Haebeck and the rest of his Green/Neocon zealots destroyed their investment in the Nordstream 2 pipeline, would agree with the market.

  And so much of this is because now the markets are fully handicapping a global recession based on a spate of terrible economic news, including Germany running a trade deficit in May for the first time in 30 years.

  So much for that argument that Europe has a positive cash flow statement and can’t/won’t break down because of it, c.f. my podcast from February with Peter Boockvar.

  But to understand why things are accelerating this quickly, beyond the Fed’s hawkishness, I think it’s high time we look at what China’s role in this is and will be.

  There’s been a lot of discussion about China’s lockdown policy since the beginning of the War in Ukraine.

  What did it mean? Are they seriously paranoid or was this their very Chinese way of supporting Russia’s efforts in Ukraine by exacerbating the massive supply chain breakdown created by Davos’ Coronapocalypse? You know I side with the latter position.

  So, after a successful BRICS Summit which saw both Iran and Argentina apply for member status (and China inviting Saudi Arabia to join it and the SCO), China announced a week ago they are loosening the COVID restrictions on foreign travelers into the country.

  China unexpectedly slashed quarantine times for international travelers, to just one week, which suggests Beijing is easing COVID zero policies. The nationwide relaxation of pandemic restrictions led investors to buy Chinese stocks.

  Inbound travelers will only quarantine for ten days, down from three weeks, which shows local authorities are easing draconian curbs on travel and economic activity as they worry about slumping economic growth sparked by restrictive COVID zero policies earlier this year that locked down Beijing and Shanghai for months (Shanghai finally lifted its lockdown measures on May 31).

  The result is, as Zerohedge pointed out at the time, the return of capital inflow to China’s equity markets on the announcement. But the markets had been forecasting capital flight into China for weeks since bottoming in April.

  

  That said, this is a perfect example of what I talk about all the time with respect to potential changes in the US political situation.  Markets are always looking for changes in intentions by the political class.  

  These little changes are seen by traders and investors as edges to be played.  They may not pan out, but are bets based on a probability calculation of a state change in public policy.

  To this end, Fungal Joe is going to lift the Trump tariffs on Chinese imports this week to buy votes by hoping inflation moderates. I’m okay with him doing this trying to right the ship. Tariffs are never the answer, just like sanctions. Notice also this has zero to do with monetary policy and everything to do with supply disruptions caused by government diktat.

  This change by China signals an intention by the CCP to open China back up to tourism and business development that isn’t likely to be reversed.  I expect this to be real and for China to make even more little moves like this as the summer drags on and markets churn in the West.

  With that change, capital inflow lessens the pressure on both the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and the Hang Seng while giving China more cover to loosen monetary policy without necessarily raising rates and creates another place for capital to flow now that the ECB has capitulated.

  

  Christine Lagarde’s recent statements about fighting inflation being “more art than science” is just saying the quiet parts out loud. But it was what came out of the ECB’s emergency meeting a couple of weeks ago that finally signaled the end for the euro in the minds of investors.

  Not only is Germany’s industrial base being literally destroyed gleefully by its government, now the ECB is going to sell German debt to buy Italian and Spanish debt to keep from drowning. This is akin to bailing water out of one end of the boat only to throw it in the other end.

  Couple these things with the frankly, disastrous G-7 Summit where the biggest collection of unserious buffoons gathered to ban the sale of Russian gold and contemplate a global price cap on oil.

  … words fail me.

  Honestly, after this G-7 the rush into the BRICS Alliance as well the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will be unstoppable.  What serious investor with real capital appreciation goals is going to look at this group of committed (and committable) lunatics and think, “Yes! I can trust my money with Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and Ursula Von der Leyen!”

  No, they are looking at this crap and opening up Tradestation.  

  The fact that Justin Trudeau was even invited should have been your sell signal.

  While the BRICS were talking about a new trade settlement currency and adding members, the G-7 was talking World War III while getting caught spending more time on photo ops than substantive dialogue.

  Unserious people with sophomoric ideas and an antiquated sense of their global importance (especially true of the UK and Germany) is not a recipe for global capital inflow over the long term.

  When you look at the fragility of the EU, the UK, and Canada you realize that the only thing propping up global markets at this point is the hope that the U.S. mid-terms are a complete refutation of the Davos agenda.  

  If that doesn’t happen, if somehow Soros and Davos steal enough seats and put a bunch of RINOs back into Congress and the Senate to freeze any reform of Washington D.C. the collapse of the West will accelerate very quickly.

  Again, go back to what I said at the outset, the markets are looking for early indicators, edges, they can play to front run a big change in a country’s domestic/foreign policy.

  If the US has an honest political revolution in November replete with the stirrings of entitlement reform and fiscal sanity while the Fed continues raising rates, then that would be a massive buy signal for not only the US but also China.

  If not the US begins its collapse and happens for multiple reasons. 

  The first is obvious.  Insane Progressives and Commies will be emboldened to destroy what’s left of the Rule of Law in the US.: pack the SCOTUS, ban guns, etc.  

  That will send capital fleeing to relatively safe places like Pakistan.

  The second is almost as obvious.  It will confirm and solidify for a critical mass of people that the government is irredeemable and it’s time for either a new convention of States, per my recent conversation with Bill Fawell, or secession as the only real options left.

  Because when all peaceful means of revolt are taken away from people, violence ensues.

  While these evil people think they are unassailable, the reality is that they are not. If you doubt me, go look at video of the Dutch Farmer’s Revolution for confirmation of just how angry people truly are.

  None of the issues surrounding the Dems have worked at this point.

  No amount of SSRI-addled, known-to-law-enforcement-enabled shootings will roll out gun control in the US.

  No amount of screeching from unfuckable purple-hairs will bring back Roe v. Wade.

  No amount of sexual deviance at the public schools will usher in legalized pedophilia.

  These are the positions Democrats have staked their future as a party on and most of America is sincerely fed up with it while their businesses are looted, their bank accounts are emptied and their kids sexually-assaulted at school by strippers.

  This is why I fully expect voter fraud costs to soar this November and for the 2000(00) Mules strategy to fail as a result. Proud Boys and Oathkeepers will gladly stand outside drop boxes looking for some douchebag with a handful of fake ballots to “question.”

  This means they will just print votes out of thin air, but they can only really do that in places like California.  

  China opening back up for business is good news.  Ending COVID restrictions are necessary to shifting the flow of capital from mattresses back into the global economy.   But it won’t happen fast enough without a political revolution in the US to stave off a year or two of messy activity as supply chains reroute.

  If China opens up more and the mid-terms are a blowout for normal people there is ample room for the Fed to keep going higher with rates from a US gov’t budget perspective.  A good article recently from Wolf Street reminds us (and me) that only new debt is subject to the higher rates the Fed is now charging.

  We have historically low debt servicing costs.

  

  The budget is still a mess and it’s why entitlement reform is the key political issue going forward.  So, if Soros wins this fall and Davos remains firmly in control of Washington, then there is no hope for America’s future as a 50-state compact.  They will burn the rest of this country to the ground before giving up control of it.

  

  Even if the mid-terms go well, the transition period before the new Congress is sat will be horrific.

  Between now and then expect them to push a NATO casus belli in Ukraine on us to try and save Biden’s Depends budget, Johnson’s terrible hair and Scholz’s saggy man boobs.

  This is how they will counter China moving to attract capital, by starting another war. 

  The problem for all of them is that China ultimately wins either way.  All they will do is delay the inevitable because as I pointed out the other day, there isn’t the productive capacity TODAY to fight a two-front war in Europe and the Pacific.  

  If NATO moves on Russia, China will move on Taiwan. The Russians are salivating at the prospect of the Brits coming in to fight them in Ukraine to free up the US to take on China.

  And the West will lose both wars simultaneously, on the off-chance the whole thing doesn’t go nuclear. I do believe pushing the US into political crisis is the ultimate Davos play here.  The problem is, since Putin moved on Ukraine the way he did, there is no pulling that off without atomizing Europe in the process.

  So, for once, Davos is staring at a Hobson’s Choice rather than their victims. That Vlad, what a card!

  China doesn’t want war with the US anymore than Russia does.  So opening up China’s economy and Biden lifting tariffs here are the right capital-attracting moves to force even more instability on Europe.  

  If we avoid WWIII, along with the Fed putting Congress in a fiscal straightjacket, then we can effect real political change in the US

  Everyone wins.

  I do believe this is the single most important point every other analyst has missed over the past couple of years.  The point of beating Davos is to stop WWIII, stop the messy dissolution of the US which would be a catastrophe for everyone, and end the cycle of violence which has emanated from the European colonial powers for centuries.

  The US can survive this fiscally and politically.  The SCOTUS just flipped off the commies.  The people are rejecting woke anti-storytelling like Lightyear and nearly everything Netflix and Amazon produce.

  Seen recently in the Financial Times, even Blackrock is seeing the light.

  

  This tells me that Blackrock’s balance sheet is in serious trouble.  It tells me their AUM is falling and their ESG/DEI strategy is gutting the company from within.  I wouldn’t doubt for a second that Larry Fink bet the farm on Obama/Schwab getting rid of Powell and now they are staring at a collapse as Powell says, “My turn.”

  For all of their power, this is still a company with just $36 billion in shareholder equity. Apple sells that many iPhones in 2 months.

  

  I’d love nothing more than to see Blackrock become the next Lehman Moment.  I’m sure most of Wall St. wouldn’t either.  There is blood in the water folks and the sharks are circling Europe. Maybe Jamie Dimon will change his middle name to Bruce just to make the point clear to everyone.

  I’m sad I gave up popcorn.

  *  *  *

  Join my Patreon if you like Popcorn

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 21:25

• Mass Shooting By Two Illegal Immigrants In Richmond Foiled by Tipster: Police
  Mass Shooting By Two Illegal Immigrants In Richmond Foiled by Tipster: Police

  Police claim a tip from a concerned citizen foiled a planned mass shooting at an evening July 4th celebration at a packed Richmond amphitheater.

  Now, 52-year-old Julio Alvardo-Dubon and 38-year-old Rolman A. Balacarcel sit in the Richmond city jail, each initially charged with being a non-U.S. citizen in possession of a firearm. Both are Guatemalans in the United States illegally, and it’s been claimed at least one has already been deported multiple times.

  

  Apparently reflecting the fact that he was only charged with illegal possession, Alvardo-Dubon’s bond was set at just $15,000, and it isn’t clear if he’s already been released, according to the Associated Press. There’s no report yet of Balacarcel’s bond.  

  At a Wednesday afternoon press conference, Richmond police chief Gerald Smith credited a “hero” citizen who called police after overhearing a conversation about a planned mass murder at the city’s July 4th celebration at Dogwood Dell, a 2,400-seat amphitheater in the city’s Byrd Park. 

  “There’s no telling how many lives this citizen saved with one phone call,” Smith said. The tip came in on July 1. That same day, police proceeded to a residence on the 1000 block of Columbia Avenue.

  Smith said Alvarado-Dubon consented to police entering without a warrant. “Once inside that residence, they saw evidence in plain view that corroborated the witness’s statement,” said Smith, who later specified that the evidence was “firearms in plain view.”    

  Under advice from the Department of Homeland Security, police arrested Alvarado-Dubon for being an alien in possession of a firearm, and seized two assault rifles, one handgun and hundreds of rounds of ammunition.

  

  Richmond police then put surveillance on Balacarcel, whom Smith described as Alvardo-Dubon’s roommate. On July 5, police concluded they had probable cause to arrest Balacarcel on the same charge, and did so near Charlottesville, Virginia. 

  “Their intent was to conduct a mass shooting at our Fourth of July celebration,” said Smith, who gave no indication that police found specific evidence of the plot, or that either of the two confessed to it. 

  

  A motive has not yet been identified, nor have police determined how the duo acquired the weapons. Smith said neither had a record of previous engagements with Richmond police.   

   

  A reporter at the press conference said his sources indicate at least one of the two has been deported multiple times, asked Smith how he felt about it. “It can be frustrating when things like that occur, that people who shouldn’t actually be here are criminals [and] actually continue to be able to do those types of things.”  

  

    

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 21:05

• Investors Take Bitcoin Off Exchanges As Crypto Winter Settles In
  Investors Take Bitcoin Off Exchanges As Crypto Winter Settles In

  By Immanual John Milton, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  As the crypto winter deepens, only the staunchest Bitcoin investors are still holding onto their tokens — but not on the exchanges.
  Investors in the world’s biggest cryptocurrency are going into hibernation mode with on-chain activity dropping by 13% in early July from November’s highs — levels last seen in the bear phases of 2018 and 2019 when Bitcoin was worth less than $10,000 — according to a Glassnode analysis.

  The risk-off market mood is spreading to the cryptocurrency exchanges as investors withdraw and stow their coins off-line in crypto wallets instead. The exchanges have seen their balances drop more than 20% from a Jan. 20 peak, according to Glassnode.

  “Bitcoin has seen a near complete expulsion of market tourists, leaving the resolve of HODLers as the last line standing,” according to a Glassnode newsletter dated July 4. Bitcoin fell below $20,000 last month for the first time since 2020.

  While several activity levels — a demand indicator — have trended downward in recent weeks, there still appears to be a stable holder base, as prices hover around $20,000. HODLers — stalwart investors who refuse to sell — are evident as Glassnode says relatively flat transaction activity shows continued Bitcoin consolidation.

  

  Key levels to watch for Bitcoin are $18,910, a level that prices have dipped below twice in mid-June, and $21,557, around its late-June highs, according to Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler Companies.

  “There’s no fundamentals for crypto, of course. It’s just purely price action,” Johnson said in an interview on Friday. “You’re just going to look at this and say, until you break out of that range — up or down — you are not going to make any conclusion that there’s a trend change yet. We’re just short-term consolidating in the context of a longer-term downtrend.”

  A close above $26,000 or $28,000 could finally put a stop to the downward slide the token has been on since April, Johnson said.

  The rout in Bitcoin has hit Coinbase Global Inc. the hardest as the exchange saw a drop of 450,000 Bitcoin over the last two years. Binance, which recently partnered with TikTok creator Khaby Lame and soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo, has seen an increase of 300,000 Bitcoin over the same timespan, making it the most popular Bitcoin exchange, per Glassnode and TXMC.

  Recent breaks in operations, such as Coinflex’s and Vauld’s pause in withdrawals and CoinLoan’s reduction in withdrawal amounts, have decreased investor trust in exchanges. Illiquid supply increased by 223,000 Bitcoin in June as investors migrated funds to wallets from exchanges, according to Glassnode data. Of that 223,000, large-scale crypto holders made up much of that outflow from the exchanges as they withdrew over 140,000 tokens in June. These whales have been responsible for exchange outflows of almost 8.7 million, or over 40% of the global supply of Bitcoin.

  “The Bitcoin bear is in full swing, and in its wake, the HODLers of last resort are the last ones standing,” Glassnode said.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 20:45

• What Does It Take To Be Wealthy In America?
  What Does It Take To Be Wealthy In America?

  The goalposts of wealth are always shifting due to inflation and other factors.

  For example, someone with a net worth of $1 million several decades ago would have been considered very wealthy. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu details below, according to recent survey results, however, $1 million is only enough to feel “financially comfortable” today.

  In this infographic, Visual Capitalist has visualized several money milestones to give you a better idea of what it really takes to be wealthy in America.

  

  Net Worth Milestones

  This table lists the data used in the above infographic.

  It covers data on what it takes to get into the top one percent for wealth in key states, along with broader survey results about what net worth thresholds must be crossed in order to be considered “comfortable financially” or even “wealthy”.

  

   

  According to Charles Schwab’s Modern Wealth Survey, a net worth of $774,000 is needed to feel “financially comfortable”, while $2.2 million is needed to be considered “wealthy”.

  Both of these milestones are far greater than the average (median) American’s wealth, which according to the Federal Reserve, was $122,000 in 2019.

  Joining the One Percent

  Research by Knight Frank determined that in order to be a member of America’s one percent, one would need a net worth of $4.4 million. This is very high compared to other developed countries such as Japan ($1.5 million), the UK ($1.8 million), and Australia ($2.8 million).

  The difference is partly due to America’s large population of ultra high net worth individuals, which includes the country’s 724 billionaires. See below for a list of the top five countries by number of billionaires.

  

   

  Source: World Population Review (As of 2021)

  Focusing again on the U.S., we can also see large discrepancies at the individual state level. Entry into California’s one percent requires a net worth of $6.8 million, which is 62% higher than the national average.

  California is famously home to many of the world’s richest people, including Google co-founder Larry Page, and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

  Being a one percenter in Mississippi, on the other hand, requires $766,000. That’s 83% lower than the national average, and just a tad lower than the amount needed to be “financially comfortable” by the average American. This is partially due to Mississippi’s poverty rate of 19.6%, which according to the U.S. Census Bureau, is the highest in the country.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 20:25

• Republicans Looking To Tighten Eligibility For State Primaries
  Republicans Looking To Tighten Eligibility For State Primaries

  Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Republicans in Texas and elsewhere are considering closing primaries to limit what they say is Democratic meddling.

  

  One of the Texas GOP’s top legislative priorities includes closing primaries to stop Democrat interference. It is part of a sweeping measure calling on the state legislature to enhance election integrity while combating voter fraud.

  The idea also appears in a platform “plank” to prevent liberal Democrats crossing over so they can “move the Republican Party to the left.”

  Some Republicans point to stories of Democrats playing spoiler in Texas primaries as a concern.

  

  In February, an Austin woman quoted in a Texas Public Radio story admitted she and others crossed over to vote in the Republican primary to cause chaos.

  “Let’s get these guys to a primary runoff. Let’s make them burn their war chest money before they face Democrats in November,” K. Monroe told Texas Public Radio.

  In other states such as Colorado, Democrats ran ads for MAGA candidates, hoping to knock out more moderate Republicans during primary races.

  Republicans in Georgia are talking about closing their primary because more than 80,000 people who voted Democratic in the past voted in their primary.

  In Texas, State Rep. Cecil Bell (R-Magnolia), who serves parts of Montgomery and Waller counties outside of Houston, told The Epoch Times crossover voting isn’t an issue in his district. But that doesn’t mean it hasn’t caused problems in larger metropolitan areas.

  

  “I know there are people who are very concerned about closing our primaries,” Bell said. “Election integrity is a high priority to all Texans and Americans.”

  Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, told The Epoch Times that registered voters may cast a vote in a Republican or Democratic Texas primary.

  However, voters must stick with the party they selected. If someone voted in the Democratic primary race, that person couldn’t switch back and vote in a Republican primary runoff, for example.

  Jillson said the idea behind Republicans closing their primary would be limiting “Republicans In Name Only” candidates and ensuring office-seekers are true to Republican values. But he pointed out that cross-voting may be more of a perceived threat than an actual one.

  Republicans are unlikely to go through with closing their primary at this point because they dominate statewide elections.

  “The Republicans haven’t lost a statewide race in Texas since 1994,” Jillson said.”When you’re winning, why would you change the game?”

  Using definitions developed by Ballotpedia and the National Confederation of State Legislatures, Texas and 14 other states have open primaries. Nine have closed ones, and the remainder falls somewhere in between.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 20:05

• Corporate Media Insists Eating Insects Is "Really Delicious" 
  Corporate Media Insists Eating Insects Is “Really Delicious” 

  The World Economic Forum (WEF) has, for years, promoted the idea that “healthy diets” and “sustainable” foods, such as insects, should be introduced into the global food system to save the planet.  

  These self-proclaimed designers of the future are calling for a reset of the food system to lessen the environmental impact of current food production and solve world hunger. They’re trying to convince people to eat bugs.

  The latest sign insect farming is about to takeoff is a South African chemical engineer by the name of Wendy Vesela found ways to transform spiky green and black caterpillars into flour that can be used in biscuits, sweet chocolate protein bars, cereals or smoothies, according to AFP News. 

  

  Vesela insisted that edible bugs and worms are “a healthier protein option.”

  

  She said people are hesitant to eat insects but ground up and packaged into a protein bar or other foods — people find it “really delicious.” 

  Worm Pizza 

  

  Worm Chocolate 

  

  AFP spoke with dietitian, Mpho Tshukudu, who said eating insects is a better source of protein. 

  “It’s high in protein, in essential fats and minerals, especially iron. It has more iron than the most expensive piece of steak,” Tshukudu said.

  Vesela said she plans to expand her business as the demand for edible insects is expected to increase amid inflation making meat unaffordable for many. 

  With record-high prices and looming food shortages, the Rockefeller Foundation recently warned that a “massive, immediate food crisis” is on the horizon.

  One commenter on AFP’s article stated: “This is a concerted effort to get people to eat bugs rather than animal protein.” 

  We agree with the commenter and also must add: 

  you will own nothing and eat insects https://t.co/1yV2hMnnYJ

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 19:45

• Most Americans Say Federal Government Actions Are Hurting Them: Poll
  Most Americans Say Federal Government Actions Are Hurting Them: Poll

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A new poll shows that a majority of Americans feel that federal government actions over the past six months have hurt their families and that President Joe Biden’s policies have not benefited the middle class at all.

  

  The Monmouth University poll, released on July 5, reveals that the number of Americans who are struggling financially has jumped by double digits in the past year as soaring inflation has outpaced wage gains and sparked a cost-of-living crisis.

  “Economic concerns tend to rise to the top of the list of family concerns, as you might expect, but the singular impact of inflation is really hitting home right now,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

  “Most Americans are blaming Washington for their current pain,” he added.

  The poll, which was carried out on a representative sample of 978 adults in the United States, shows that a majority (57 percent) said that the actions of the federal government over the past six months have hurt their family when it comes to their key concern.

  This is the first time ever in the history of Monmouth polling that the share of Americans blaming Washington for making their chief concern worse has climbed above 50 percent. Prior polls saw that figure vary between 34 percent and 47 percent.

  A mere 8 percent said federal government policies have helped them while 34 percent said Washington actions have not had a meaningful impact when it comes to their main concern, the poll also shows.

  

  Commenting on the findings of the poll was Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who said in a Twitter post, “People are beginning to understand that those $1200 stimmy checks were the cheese in the trap.”

  Like Massie, critics of the Biden administration’s policies often blame unprecedented levels of federal stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies for stoking consumer demand while doing little to bolster supply, pushing up prices.

  Inflation has been running at a 40-year high in the United States, with the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing prices rising at 8.6 percent in annual terms.

  Alternate measures of inflation, however, put this figure much higher. Economist John Williams, who calculates a version of the CPI using the same methodology the government used before 1980, puts the latest figure at 16.8 percent, a 75-year high.

  Inflation and High Gas Prices Key Worries

  Inflation has become the biggest concern facing American families, with 33 percent identifying this as their chief worry, the poll shows. This is a sharp increase over prior Monmouth polling, which put the figure in a range between 5 percent and 14 percent.

  High gas prices follow in second place, with 15 percent identifying this as their main concern. This, too, is up from prior polls.

  Gasoline prices have been trending down over the past several weeks and on July 6 the national average stood at $4.779 per gallon, according to the AAA. Still, they remain near historical highs and around $1.50 higher than a year ago.

  Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said that the recent downtrend could reverse as the summertime peak driving season rolls around.

  “Domestic gasoline demand dipped recently, which took some of the pressure off of pump prices. About 80 percent of stations are now selling regular for under $5 a gallon,” Gross said in a statement.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 19:25

• Real-Time Indicator Shows Manhattan Housing Market Quickly Cooling
  Real-Time Indicator Shows Manhattan Housing Market Quickly Cooling

  Appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate wrote in a new report that Manhattan’s residential market showed signs of cooling after a post-lockdown buying surge.

  Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said a “spike in interest rates, inflation, economic uncertainty, and the war in Ukraine” has resulted in a plunge in newly signed contracts between April and June. Newly signed contracts jumped to 1.4k in March as the 30Y mortgage began to soar. Shortly after, costlier mortgages curtailed buyers, and new contracts tumbled to as low as 923 in June. 

  

  “This is a quick pivot from an overachieving market to a market that’s being challenged by an unprecedented amount of uncertainty,” Miller said. The sharp downturn in newly signed contracts is part of prospective homebuyers heading to the sidelines because of turmoil in stocks, bonds, and crypto, interest rate increases, and mounting fears of an imminent recession.

  This uncertainty has translated into fewer bidding wars, slumping signed contracts, and price reductions on listings as inventory gradually builds. 

  Manhattan’s decline in newly signed contracts comes as the median sales price for the second quarter increased to a record $1.25 million. 

  “Contracts are the best real-time indicator of market performance,” Garrett Derderian, director of market intelligence at brokerage Serhant, told Bloomberg. He believes third-quarter contract figures “will be bleaker.” 

  It appears that the slowdown in Manhattan’s residential market accelerated into June and could easily lead to slowing sales in all boroughs. 

  McKenzie Ryan, a top New York broker with Douglas Elliman, told CNBC the number of buyers showing up for open houses has fallen off a cliff. She said an April listing attracted 31 people to the house. A similar listing she held last month only brought in four people. 

  “My clients in tech are just bracing right now for whatever happens … Some people have seen a steep loss in wealth since the start of the year,” Ryan said. 

  The signs of a shift are still early, though it could soon indicate Manhattan’s residential market is set to peak, then reverse. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 19:05

• Biden's Green Agenda Is Causing US Power Grid To Be "Incredibly Vulnerable"
  Biden’s Green Agenda Is Causing US Power Grid To Be “Incredibly Vulnerable”

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Every U.S. region could be at risk for significant power outages this summer as companies rush to convert to non-fossil fuel and non-nuclear energy sources, an analyst says.

  

  “I think the entire country is incredibly vulnerable, because the entire country is facing a huge energy shortage and I don’t think there is any place that is truly safe,” Daniel Turner, founder and executive director of Power the Future, told Fox News on July 4.

  Turner said that states that have caved to pressure to switch to “green energy” sources, including wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, could suffer this year.

  “The areas of the country I’d be most concerned about are the ones that already have inherent weaknesses,” he told the outlet. “Texas, California, New Mexico, New York, all of New England. These are areas whose policies and political decisions have weakened their electric grid.”

  Countries and U.S. states that have “pushed green energy mandates by government action” haven’t been successful, he said.

  “And you can measure that on multiple levels of success, in terms of what they’ve actually purported to or claim that they would produce in terms of electricity, reliability, cost,” he added. “In terms of actual construction, or cost to the consumers.”

  Midwest States

  Earlier this year, some power companies, grid operators, and other groups have warned about brownouts and rolling blackouts—especially in the Midwestern states.

  “A recent generation capacity auction has revealed that the Midwest could fall short of needed generation capacity to serve the summer peak load under certain conditions,” the SouthEastern Illinois Electrical Cooperative wrote in a recent letter. “In the event that this happens, your Cooperative would be directed to disconnect a portion of the load in order to prevent an electric grid failure.”

  Amid possible shortfalls, some Michigan firms have called on consumers to tell officials to keep power companies online.

  “We need your help to keep the lights on in Michigan this summer and beyond,” Thumb Electric Cooperative General Manager Dallas Braun wrote on Facebook in a recent post. “Electric reliability is at risk today and demand is projected to grow. As soon as this WEEK Michigan regulators are considering closing down more power plants in Michigan. Please join ME in telling them that reliability matters and that they shouldn’t prematurely close these plants.”

  Meanwhile, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) seasonal assessment said that Michigan could face power shortages this year, according to JT Smith, MISO’s executive director, in media interviews last month and in May.

  His group’s seasonal assessment warned that “capacity shortfalls in both the north and central regions of MISO and leaving those areas at increased risk of temporary, controlled outages to preserve the integrity of the bulk electric system,” Smith told NPR.

  MISO, meanwhile, will take steps to implement controlled power outages across Michigan. That’s a step the operator has never taken before, it said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 18:45

• Tesla China Sales For June Come In At About 78,000 Vehicles, Up 142% Sequentially
  Tesla China Sales For June Come In At About 78,000 Vehicles, Up 142% Sequentially

  While Tesla’s Q2 deliveries in the U.S. fell short of expectations, it looks like the company is heading into Q3 with momentum in China.

  Tesla sold about 78,000 China-made cars in June, up 142% from May, according to Street Insider, who cited preliminary data announced by the China Passenger Car Association early this week. 

  The company sold 32,165 cars in China in May, the report notes. In sum, EVs are seeing momentum in China for the month of June, as the country begins re-opening (again). 1.926 million passenger cars have been sold in China in June, the report says, which is a 22% rise from last year. 

   

  As we noted yesterday, after Tesla’s big Q2 deliveries miss and despite the fact that the company recorded its best production for June in history, analysts are souring on the name. The latest investment bank to lower its price target on Tesla has been JP Morgan, who said yesterday that shares could fall 40% from current levels. 

  “Expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution and competition,” a note from JP Morgan analysts said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. 

  The note continued: “There may be reason to believe that production, and financial results, could be being impacted also by company-specific execution issues at the company’s new factories in Austin and Berlin.” 

  The investment bank then cut its price target on the company from $395 to $385 – about a 40% drop from the stock’s current levels close to $680 per share. 

  JP Morgan’s price target is considerably lower than the Refinitiv median price target, which stands at $950. 

  Recall, Tesla was out over the weekend said that it delivered just 254,695 vehicles for Q2 2022, as the company hit snags due to its Shanghai shutdown and supply chain issues.

  

  Despite this, the company’s June month was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla’s history, according to Bloomberg. The company’s deliveries represent a 26.7% gain in deliveries from last year and a drop from last quarter’s record of 310,048. 

  The drop marked the lowest delivery quarter since Q3 2021 for Model 3/Y vehicles. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 18:25

• US Deploys F-35 Stealth Fighters To South Korea For Joint Military Drills
  US Deploys F-35 Stealth Fighters To South Korea For Joint Military Drills

  Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

  The United States deployed six F-35A stealth fighters to South Korea for joint military drills to demonstrate U.S.-South Korea deterrence amid North Korea’s growing nuclear threat.

  

  The six aircraft departed from the Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska on Tuesday.

  The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) said they would join several other U.S. and South Korean aircraft, including South Korea’s F-35As, during the 10-day military drills involving “familiarization and routine training flights.”

  F-35s bolster US-ROK #Alliance in the sky
  Details: https://t.co/RTfx78i0Zo#같이납시다 | #WeFlyTogether@ROK_MND | @USEmbassySeoul pic.twitter.com/tmu4TKes7H

  — U.S. Forces Korea (@USForcesKorea) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The aircraft plan to operate over the Republic of Korea and surrounding waters off the coasts during the scheduled 10-day training mission,” the USFK said in a statement, referring to South Korea’s official name.

  South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the purpose was to demonstrate the two allies’ “strong deterrence and combined defense posture,” as well as “to improve interoperability between the two air forces,” Yonhap News Agency reported.

  This follows an agreement between President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk-yeol, in May to initiate talks on expanding joint military drills on the Korean Peninsula and reinforcing the combined defense posture.

  During their meeting, Biden reaffirmed the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to South Korea “using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities.”

  The two leaders condemned North Korea’s resumption of nuclear tests as a “grave threat” to the world while remaining open to dialogue with Pyongyang.

  Trilateral Alliance

  North Korea’s nuclear threats have prompted South Korea to boost cooperation with both the U.S. and Japan.

  On June 29, the three countries’ leaders met on the sidelines of the NATO summit and discussed the need to enhance “trilateral cooperation” against Pyongyang.

  The North Korean Foreign Ministry denounced the tripartite alliance as a means to materialize the U.S.’s plan to form a military alliance similar to NATO in the Asia-Pacific region, Pyongyang’s official news agency reported.

  “The reality clearly shows that the real purpose of the U.S. spreading the rumor about ‘threat from North Korea’ is to provide an excuse for attaining military supremacy over the Asia-Pacific region including the Korean Peninsula, and furthermore, the rest of the world,” it stated.

  “The prevailing situation more urgently calls for building up the country’s defenses to actively cope with the rapid aggravation of the security environment of the Korean Peninsula and the rest of the world,” the ministry added.

  Pyongyang has conducted 18 missile launches involving 33 ballistic missiles since the beginning of the year, and Washington anticipated that it could conduct a seventh nuclear test at “any time.”

  The United States has been urging a return to a dialogue with North Korea, which Pyongyang has ignored because of what it says are the United States and its allies’ hostile policies.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 18:05

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